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The Conference was organised by Kristian Glaesel, Glaesel HSEQ Management AS, who is convenor of the ISO Working Group for the development of ISO45001.
Globetrotting David Smith, director of iMS Risk Solutions, off on his travels again.
Some ninety delegates from around the world assembled in Trinidad to attend the ISo45001 committee meeting to develop committee draft 2 of ISO45001 taking into account the comments received, in excess of 2500, on the first draft produced in Morocco.
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This workshop was part of the research activities iMS have been commissioned to undertake on behalf of BSI/BSi for their forthcoming guidance on the use of management systems to support resilience in organizations.
Working with colleagues from Barclays Bank and the Environment Agency David Smith, director iMS Risk Solutions, has completed a joint paper on the benefits of ISO14031.
The paper examined:
The content of this paper formed the basis of subsequent presentations. Delegates were from CIWEM and IEMA.
The second meeting of the ISO committee for the development of ISO45001 - occupational health and safety management system, has taken place in Morocco.
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A committee draft of the new standard has been produced.
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The inaugural meeting of the committee has just taken place in London - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZcJlJT6H10
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More details on the Passport to Export Scheme are available from UK trade & Investment at www.uktradeinvest.gov.uk
Is was a great pleasure for iMS Risk Solutions to be invited by Mines Rescue to undertake a presentation at their open day to celebrate the completion of new facilities at their training centre, Cross Gates Mines Rescue Station, Fife. the new facilities were opened by Willie Rennie, MP for Dunfermline and West Fife.
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David Smith speaks at "OSPEDALE NEL TERZO MILLENNIO", Alba Italy. Recognizing the importance of effective safety management systems in all aspects of the work place David Smith, Director of iMS Risk Solutions was invited to present at the international conference – The Third Millennium Hospital.
The event was attended by health professionals from all over Europe who were able to learn more of the UK approach to safety management including BS8800:2004.
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The specification provides a practical framework for organizations to manage their risks in a holistic manner maximizing operational, managerial and financial benefits and efficiencies.
This specification builds upon our exiting series of publications in this area. We have already found there is great interest in this driver for business efficiency especially in our work in the Far East."


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Mplus Discussion
Latent Variable Mixture Modeling
Dan Bauer
posted on Friday, August 11, 2000 - 8:34 am
I'm interested in running a simulation study to see how well mixture models will recover the structure of a population under various conditions. It's not clear to me whether MPlus can generate data for this purpose. My first thought is to (1) Write a Monte Carlo statement that simulates data from multiple groups; and (2) Use the Analysis and Model commands to specify a mixture model. Would that be correct? Is there a more direct way to do this?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Friday, August 11, 2000 - 4:33 pm
Mplus does not currently do Monte Carlo for mixtures. You can generate data outside the program. Or, you can do what you suggest - generate data from multiple groups in which case the Monte Carlo option allows you to print out the data from the first replication. In either case, Mplus will have to be run separately for each data set.
John Williams
posted on Tuesday, November 07, 2000 - 1:00 pm
I have conducted a similar study using MECOSA, and
the next phase of the study will be to compare
those results with those generated by Mplus.
I have submitted a paper for publication, but if
you are interested in a copy, let me know.
Dan Bauer
posted on Tuesday, May 15, 2001 - 7:44 am
I'm trying to use your RUNALL utility to work with simulated data files that I generated externally. I followed the instructions given for setting the environment variables in RUNSTART.DAT, and compared my setup to the example you provided. Everything looks okay, but when I run the utility from the command prompt I get the error messages:
'RUNONE.BAT' is not recognized as an internal or external command, operable program or batch file.
(repeated 100 times, once for each data file)
'RUNEND.BAT' is not recognized as an internal or external command, operable program or batch file.
(once at the end)
I didn't modify either RUNONE or RUNEND, some I'm puzzled that it doesn't recognize them. I'd appreciate any suggestions you have for solving this problem. Thanks in advance.
Thuy Nguyen
posted on Wednesday, May 16, 2001 - 9:56 am
It sounds like RUNONE.BAT and RUNEND.BAT are not located in a directory that is listed in your PATH environment. In an MS-DOS window, type SET to see all the settings for all environment variables. The directory containing Mplus should be listed in your PATH environment. This directory should also be the directory in which you should place all your RUN*.BAT files.
If this doesn't help, can you give us more information about the all directories involved, ie. where Mplus is installed, if that directory is in the PATH environment, where the RUN*.BAT files are located, the directory you are running RUNALL in, etc?
Hanno Petras
posted on Wednesday, October 23, 2002 - 2:43 pm
Dear Linda & Bengt,
I am conducting a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the Power to detect a class specific intervention impact on the slope in a three class growth mixture model. While I learned how to determine the effect size of an intervention impact on a distal outcome in a growth mixture model, I am unclear about the effect size of the intervention impact on a class specific slope. Any hints would be greatly appreciated.
posted on Wednesday, October 23, 2002 - 5:50 pm
That's a good question. The Muthen-Curran (1997) article in Psych Methods struggled with the same thing. One can certainly define effect size of a slope by dividing the slope mean difference with the slope SD. But this doesn't get to the tangible observed-data level. So in MC we settled on how the slope mean difference affected the outcome mean difference divided by its SD. This then calls for deciding on the time point that you want to evaluate power for.
Hanno Petras
posted on Thursday, October 24, 2002 - 12:57 pm
Thank you for the response Bengt. Given the class specific slope and the intervention impact on that slope, it is fairly easy to draw the two trajectory (control, intervention) and compute the differences between the time specific means. However, I am not so sure which SD to use. The MC output provides the SD for the slope as well as the intervention impact on the slope. My guess would be to use the SD of the intervention impact on the slope. In my example, the mean difference at the last time point is 0.5 and the SD of the intervention impact on the slope is 0.1329. Since I am simulating data, I do not really know the overall SD for the group in that class. Dividing the mean difference by the slope equals 3.76. Based on Cohen's measure of nonoverlap (U) this would be a large effect. Is this correct? I am looking forward to your response.
posted on Friday, October 25, 2002 - 9:30 am
To get the model-estimated SD for time specific outcome means, you should look at the formula for how the model estimates this outcome and get the SD from that formula.
For example, at time 1 where y1 = i + e1, the situation is simple becasue y1 is not influenced by the slope. Here the model-estimated variance is V(i) + V(e). For later time points, you need to involve the slope(s) which may covary with the intercept. A simple, approx., approach is to just use the sample SD for the time point.
posted on Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 11:38 pm
I am using Mplus 3 to conduct a simulation study on mixture modeling. Is it possible to specify the percentages for the mixtures? Say 70% for the 1st mixture and 30% for the 2nd mixture. Thanks!
posted on Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 10:57 am
You give logit starting values that correspond to the proportions that you want. As explained in Chapter 13 of the User's Guide, the logit is the log of the ratio of the two proportions.
posted on Sunday, October 10, 2004 - 2:15 am
I am trying to conduct a simulation study on mixture modeling with Mplus 3. Although I know that it is possible to generate data with different mixtures, I want to generate data based on multiple groups and then test the data with mixture models. Mplus complained that mixture models are not allowed with multiple-group analysis. Are there any ways to handle this issue?
A second question is that Mplus save data from the first replication only. Is it possible to save data from all replications for other further analysis? Thanks in advance!
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, October 12, 2004 - 5:09 pm
Multiple group analysis with mixture models is carried out using the KNOWNCLASS option. Examples 7.21 and 8.8 show how this option is used. The Monte Carlo counterpart of these examples which comes with Version 3 show how to generate data for these examples.
You can save data from all replications in Version 3. See the REPSAVE option of the MONTECARLO command.
posted on Friday, October 15, 2004 - 10:56 pm
Thanks a lot for the reply. Could you tell me what are the differences between mixture modeling with known classes vs. multiple-group analysis? Or could you suggest some references in this topic?
posted on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 7:56 am
They amount to exactly the same analysis. Knowing the class membership is like observing group membership. It is just that in the mixture context, multiple-group analysis is arranged via a KNOWNCLASS approach.
Christian Geiser
posted on Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 3:46 am
Sorry to bother you again. I have a similar question to the one that has been asked here on Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 11:38 pm. I conducted a simulation study on a 3 class LCA model. I took the parameter estimates of my model as population values using the POPULATION = estimates3.dat; option in the MONTECARLO command. However, this seemed to work only for the threshold parameters but not for the class proportions which where different in my MC model. How exactly can I fix the class proportions to equal the real data class proportions in the MC input? Thanks again.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 8:47 am
You give logit starting values to the intercepts/means of the categorical latent variable in the overall part of the model.
would put 50 percent of the cases in each of the two classes. If you continue to have problems send your output to
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:04 am
I did a simulation study using Mplus 2.14. The reviewers asked that I update this using Mplus 3, given possible improvements in estimation/optimization. I complied with this request, only to find a lower rate of convergence in Mplus 3 than Mplus 2.14. For instance, where I had 100% convergence before, the rate dropped to 90% with Mplus 3. I used the exact same script files, except that I turned off the random starts in Mplus 3 so it would be estimating from the same start values. Have any of the defaults changed between versions (e.g., convergence criteria) or can you think of any other reason to explain these results?
Thanks in advance for your help.
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:39 am
Our experience is the opposite. Please send your MC input to
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:46 am
I generated the data myself rather than using the Monte Carlo feature in Mplus.
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:49 am
In your Version 3 run you used the new "external MC" feature, right, where you submit several data replications for an MC run to get summaries across these replications? If so, please send the Mplus input for that.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:58 am
I'll just add my two cents here. If you are generating your own data, then it is not possible to do the same thing in 2.14 and 3 because you would have to use external Monte Carlo and that was not available in 2.14. So I suspect you have generated your data differently than in 2.14 where it was generated by Mplus and that this is the cause of your convergence problems.
posted on Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 11:10 am
My mistake -- I had omitted the STARTS command thinking this would turn off the random starts -- didn't realize it would do this by default. Turns out that it was the random start routine that was causing the increased rate of non-convergence. When I override this with STARTS=0 I once again get 100% convergence. Sorry for the trouble.
Delphine Gross
posted on Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 8:21 am
I am trying to do a Monte Carlo study using the results of one research as population values. With this data, I found two classes. When I do the monte carlo study specifying two classes, it works well, However, when I try to specify 3 classes (again using results from an analysis of the same data with 3 classes as population values), the program seems to get stuck in one of the replications. That is, several replications go well enough, then suddenly, Mplus gets stuck. I tried changing the seed and putting more starting values (STARTS = 50 10) but neither worked.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 3:43 pm
Please send the output that generated the data and the Monte Carlo output to
. It is hard to say without seeing the details of the generation and subsequent analysis.
Delphine Gross
posted on Monday, March 21, 2005 - 6:54 am
I was able to solve my last problem alone. However, I have a new problem. Still doing the same Monte Carlo analysis, I used an input that worked for 1500 subjects to evaluate the model with 2000 subjects. This new input does not work even though it is almost exactly the same as the last one that worked perfectly well. It computes and then suddenly stops and no output appears in Mplus. When I open the output, it contains only two lines after the input:
then the title I gave
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Monday, March 21, 2005 - 8:14 am
This is once again something where I would have to see the output that worked and the output that didn't work at
. What you have experienced could happen for a variety of reasons.
Delphine Gross
posted on Monday, March 20, 2006 - 3:11 am
I am trying to simulate categorical variables with specific probability of occurence per category (I used the command CUTPOINTS with Z scores). I then want to indicate a specific model with continuous latent variables.
When I use generate, I get error messages indicating that I cannot use this command for y-variable. When I use only cutpoints, I get the same message. Whether or not I use categorical does not seem to change anything. Is there a way to simulate categorical Y variables with specific endorsement probabilities and then specify a model to indicate the relation between these variables.
Thank you in advance
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, March 20, 2006 - 6:16 am
You should be able to do what you are trying to do. Please send your input, output, and license number to
Delphine Gross
posted on Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 6:34 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
I am writing an article using mixture modeling and doing Monte Carlo studies on the results of the application. One reviewer asked how we knew label switching was not a problem. One known solution to limit label switching is to constrain the classes so that the smallest (or the largest) is the first and so on to the last class. I would like to know if Mplus order the classes according to class size and, if yes, in what order. Thank you very much in advance.
best regards,
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, June 28, 2006 - 2:21 am
Mplus does not order the classes in any way. Label switching can be a problem. You need to give good starting values to avoid this.
posted on Wednesday, February 28, 2007 - 8:13 pm
What is the appropriate use of the STSTART value in simulation research? For example, should a different STSTART value be used for each replication within a condition or should the same STSTART value be used within the same condition or should the same STSTART value be used across all replications and conditions?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 7:09 am
I don't know of an STSTART option.
posted on Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 7:23 am
sorry - STSEED
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 2:04 pm
STSEED is not for Monte Carlo studies. The SEED option is.
Chiquitia Welch
posted on Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 3:07 pm
I need to conduct a Monte Carlo study to determine if my sample size is adequate. Is there a syntax for conducting Monte Carlo studies using LCA. I know that Nylund & Muthen conducted a Monte Carlo for LCA. Is the syntax they used available?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, May 17, 2007 - 3:37 pm
All of the examples in Chapter 7 come with an input for their Monte Carlo counterpart. These are on the website and the Mplus CD. This is a good place to start for a Monte Carlo for an LCA. The files you allude to are not available.
Qingqing Yang
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 1:51 pm
I am conducting a external simulation for an LCA. I created 500 datasets in other software, and then analyzed the datasets in Mplus. In the data statement, I used "type=monte carlo" to do the monte carlo study, and used "savedata: results is results.txt" to save the results. But it seems 498 datasets were computed successfully by Mplus, and Mplus just gave the results of 498 datasets. So I wonder if there is some way to determine which datasets were not computed successfully by Mplus.
Thanks a lot!
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 1:59 pm
Ask for TECH9 in the OUTPUT command.
Anthony Ahmed
posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 8:05 am
I'm trying to conduct an external Monte Carlo study of FMA and LPA. Is it possible to obtain the information criteria corresponding to each individual data file and the LMR, and BLRT so that I can obtain hit rates for both methods?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 9:01 am
Yes, you can do this using the RESULTS option of the MONTECARLO command.
Anthony Ahmed
posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 12:06 pm
The results option produces averages fit statistics and percentiles and proportions but no statistics for individual data. Also I can't seem to locate the SET ALL_RESULTS, SET ERROR_LOG,and the COMPLETED_LOG file that I specified in the runstart.bat of the runall utility. This is the input that I am using for the test run.
TITLE: Factor Mixture Analysis on Dissertation Data
FILE IS "C:\LVM\LVM Data\runalldata.inp";
NAMES ARE u1 u2 u3 u4;
USEVARIABLES ARE u1 u2 u3 u4;
CLASSES = c(2);
f BY u1-u4;
f BY
f BY
RESULTS = disall1.txt;
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 5:11 pm
You are using external Monte Carlo which is a replacement of the RUNALL utility. So RUNALL is not needed. You should get results for each replication if you are using a current version of the program. You will not obtain TECH11 and TECH14 unless you use internal Monte Carlo. Please send further questions on this topic and your license number to
In-Hee Choi
posted on Thursday, February 04, 2010 - 11:43 pm
I am doing a simulation study about the effects of DIF patterns on detecting latent classes.
I have 27 conditions and in each condition 100 data sets have been generated using MONTECARLO command.
And what I want to do is fitting the model with one, two and three latent classes using one data set of 100 (one by one) within the condition.
So now I am looking for the way to run the multiple runs with the same model but different data.
This is an example input file for the one latent class model in the first condition.
FILE IS 11.dat;
NAMES ARE y1-y30;
USEVARIABLES ARE y1-y30;
MODEL: f BY
FILE IS gmem1_1_1.dat;
FILE IS 1100.dat;
FILE IS gmem1_100_1.dat;
I hope to find some way to let Mplus run all of the 100 runs with just one input file.
Can I make some loop specifying the data set Mplus uses for each loop (as R?)
(because except for the data set, other commands in input file are the same in each loop)?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, February 05, 2010 - 10:01 am
There's a DOS bat that is part of Web Note 10 that shows a way to do this. See Web Note 10.
Renee McDonald
posted on Thursday, February 17, 2011 - 2:05 pm
I have a general question regarding simulated data. I am attempting to simulate data under different conditions to analyze. Is there a way to simulate data with a certain level of skewness and heterogeneous data with classes/clusters a certain distance apart?
Thank you.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, February 17, 2011 - 4:29 pm
Non-normality can be generated using mixtures as we did in the paper on our web site:
Muth�n, L.K. & Muth�n, B.O. (2002). How to use a Monte Carlo study to decide on sample size and determine power. Structural Equation Modeling, 4, 599-620.
You have to experiment to get the non-normality you want.
There are other ways as well, one being the "Vale-Maurelli" approach, but that is not in Mplus.
Renee McDonald
posted on Thursday, February 17, 2011 - 8:02 pm
Thank you for the follow up. I will have a look at the paper. How about the distance between classes using Mahanalobis Distance or some other method. Is that possible?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, February 17, 2011 - 8:30 pm
There have been a couple of mixture papers on that advocating at least 2 SD apart in the means for good estimation. I think some is in:
Lubke, G. & Muth�n, B. (2007). Performance of factor mixture models as a function of model size, covariate effects, and class-specific parameters. Structural Equation Modeling, 14(1), 26�47.
HwaYoung Lee
posted on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 2:56 pm
Dear Dr. Muthen,
I am very interested in studying mixture modeling after reading the study, "Performance of factor mixture models as a function of model size, covariate effects, and class-specific parameters".
However, I am wondering how you calculate Mahalanobis distance using the formula provided in the article, especially, population parameter values for the part2 in the appendix.
I am not clear how to use the formula for the part 2.
For example, regression intercepts class 2 MDy=1.5, v=[.2 -.2 .36 -.4 .2 -.2 .36 -.4]
covariate effect, MDx=0.5, rc=[.5]
How can I calculate those things using the formula provided in the article?
Thank you so much.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 5:52 pm
Please contact the first author of the article with these questions.
Renee McDonald
posted on Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 11:28 pm
I have a question regarding simulating mixture data. I am having problems with one issue in particular. Is it possible to specify class separation between clusters in Mplus? If so, how? For example, if I want to simulate 3 classes 2SD apart, how do I specify such in Mplus? Where / how is this included in the syntax? Thank you.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, April 01, 2011 - 10:36 am
You would separate the classes by the population parameter values you give for the means or thresholds of the latent class indicators. All of the mixture examples in Chapters 7 and 8 come with a Monte Carlo counterpart where the data for the examples were generated. These would be a good place to start.
QianLi Xue
posted on Thursday, May 26, 2011 - 5:31 pm
Hello, I would like simulate a latent class model with 4 classes and 6 binary latent class indicators y1-y6. What's wrong with the statements below? Help pls.
NAMES ARE y1-y6;
GENERATE = y1-y6 (1 p);
CATEGORICAL ARE y1-y6;
GENCLASSES = c (4);
Classes = c(4);
Model Population:
[c#1*-1.944 c#2*-1.476 c#3*-1.695];
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, May 26, 2011 - 5:37 pm
Please send the output and your license number to
so I can see what error message you get.
QianLi Xue
posted on Thursday, May 26, 2011 - 5:50 pm
Never mind. I found the problem. The threshold level following y2$ should be 1 not 2, becuase all ys are binary.
Here are two more question:
1) Do I need the statement: GENERATE = y1-y6 (1 p);
2) I assume that the thresholds for generating the binary variables y1-y6 are calculated internally using the latent class prevalence estimates given under %overall% and the logits of conditional probabilities given under %C#1%, %C#2%, etc. right?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, May 26, 2011 - 6:19 pm
1. The statement should be either
GENERATE = y1-y6 (1 l);
GENERATE = y1-y6 (1);
With maximum likelihood, logistic regression is used.
2. The variables are generated using the population parameter values that you give in MODEL POPULATION. Almost all of the Mplus examples have a Monte Carlo counterpart that was used to generate the data for the examples. You should try to find an example that is close to what you want and use the Monte Carlo counterpart for that example as a starting point.
Renee McDonald
posted on Friday, June 24, 2011 - 11:58 am
How do you determine a reasonable number of starts? I am doing a FMM simulation study. I was not getting some results (results for more than one class) and when I ran a Tech9, I see I need more starts. The problem I am running 200 different models with 1000 datasets each. I do not want to use more starts than necessary due to the amount of time to run the models. I am really unclear on how to determine such.
Thank you.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, June 24, 2011 - 4:52 pm
I think this is just a matter of trial and error. You can start with 100 25 and if that is not enough try 200 50. The second number should be about 1/4th of the first.
Renee McDonald
posted on Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 9:55 am
Thank you. A follow up question....should I ONLY use my own start values if the tech9 says I should use more starts (I am running FMM using MC simulations)?
Also, what is the difference between starts 100 and starts 100 25, for example? Are the starts explained in the manual somewhere, I can't seem to find.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 10:07 am
Starting values and random starts are not the same thing. See the STARTS option in the user's guide for a full description of this option. The Version 6 index shows it is on pages 550-551.
Renee McDonald
posted on Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 12:14 pm
Okay. Thank you. I understand the difference now. However, I still remain with the question...should I just use the default and only use my own if required by the tech9 output?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 2:50 pm
If you don't replicate the best loglikelihood, you need to increase the number of random starts using the STARTS option.
Puneet Tiwari
posted on Saturday, July 02, 2011 - 5:49 am
I am conducting a montecarlo study for LC model with categorical covariates and saved the results using the RESULT option in MONTECARLO.
Can I read this RESULTS file/ output file using R to extract summary statistics from a montecarlo study?
I understand that the results can be read for a non-simulation study fitted in Mplus(using MplusAutomation). But how about results from an MC study
Michael Hallquist
posted on Wednesday, August 03, 2011 - 11:01 am
Hello, Puneet,
I am the developer of MplusAutomation and got your message. I recently finished an update to the package that reads the parameters from Monte Carlo output. Please run updatePackages and check that you have 0.4-3, which is the latest version. This should give you access to the parameters you mentioned. Please feel free to contact me directly if you have further troubles with Monte Carlo output following this update.
Best wishes,
HwaYoung Lee
posted on Friday, February 10, 2012 - 11:47 am
I would like to run an external Monte Carlo analysis for a correctly specified and mis-specified mixture models. And I want to compare fit indices such as AIC, BIC, and aBIC across correctly and mis-specified models to see whether fit indices perform well in supporting better fit for the correctly specified model than for the mis-specified models.
When I looked at the output of Monte Carlo analysis, only average fit statistics were provided.
Is there any option to save each replication result to compare fit indices across replications?
In other words, is there any way to know how many times fit indices select the correct model?
Thank you in advance.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, February 10, 2012 - 12:34 pm
Use the RESULTS option of the SAVEDATA command.
Tenisha Smith
posted on Monday, June 17, 2013 - 7:05 pm
I think I might be missing a simple point here - can you do a monte carlo simulation with no data (i.e. prior to collecting any data at all)? Or do you need pilot data of some sort?
Thank you.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, June 18, 2013 - 7:44 am
You do not need data for a Monte Carlo simulation. The data are generated. However, you may need a pilot study to know the population parameter values to use for data generation.
Unkyung No
posted on Wednesday, September 11, 2013 - 10:43 pm
I want to know about setting the entropy values in MonteCarlo simulation study.
"We also vary the values of alpha1c to obtain differenct entropy levels. Choosing alpha11=1, alpha12=-1 yields entropy of 0.6. Choosing alpha11=2, alpha12=-2 yields entropy of 0.85. Choosing alpha11=3, alpha12=-3 yields entropy of 0.95." (Webnote 15, 15page).
In these statements, alpha1c is related to entropy level.
- Is there the equation to calculate the entropy values using alpha1c?
- Is it possible to set accurately the entropy values?
I'll try to set the entropy value (.5, .7, .9) in GMM with three classes. Please let me know the answer. Thank you!!
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 12, 2013 - 7:08 am
There is no formula. This is done by trial and error. The farther apart the means of the classes are, the better the entropy.
Unkyung No
posted on Wednesday, October 02, 2013 - 3:22 am
Thank you.
I have another question.
As far as I know, entropy is related to sample size.
In the example of my previous post(Webnote 15, 15page), if sample size is different from 5000, should the value of alpha11 and alpha12 be changed?
The smaller the sample size, the larger the entropy. So, the means of the classes will be reset closer.Is it right?
Thanks in advance.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, October 02, 2013 - 12:06 pm
Entropy is not related to sample size.
Unkyung No
posted on Wednesday, October 02, 2013 - 7:10 pm
Ah.. I was misunderstanding.
Thank you very much!
Erika Baldwin
posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2014 - 1:54 pm
Hi, I am working on a Monte Carlo study looking at the power of latent transition probabilities in LTA. I have two questions:
1) Simulation output doesn't include the estimates for the last column of transition probabilities in a probability matrix. Is there a way to get the estimates for the last column for the sake of understanding power for
all transition probabilities in the matrix?
2) When reporting power of latent transition probabilities, would it be best to report all power values for each transition probability or can I average them to show the average power of latent transition probabilities for the overall model?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2014 - 7:40 am
You can use MODEL CONSTRAINT to compute the probability for the reference class.
I would not average as the power is probably different for each.
Raghav Ramachandran
posted on Monday, April 27, 2015 - 11:05 am
Hi Drs. Muthen,
I am running a power simulation for an LTA model with two time points, multiple (nine) covariates, and a distal outcome. As in MPlus Web Note 13, I want to vary the effect of the covariates on the latent variable at Time 2 (c2) for different classes of the latent variable at Time 1(c1).
However, when I try to implement this in my power simulation, similar to mcex8.14, I get the following error: "The following MODEL POPULATION statements are ignored:
* Statements in Class %C1#1% of MODEL C1:
C2#1 on X2
C2#1 on X9
* Statements in Class %C1#2% of MODEL C1:
C2#1 on X2
C2#1 on X9
I am using MPlus Version 7.11. Please let me know if you have any ideas on how to run a Monte Carlo simulation for an LTA model with multiple covariates while taking into account the interaction of the covariates between c1 and their influence on c2. Thanks for your help.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, April 27, 2015 - 11:14 am
We need to see the full output to say - send to support along with your license number.
Raghav Ramachandran
posted on Monday, April 27, 2015 - 11:20 am
Dr. Muthen,
Thanks for your prompt reply. I really just wanted to know if there was a way to extend Monte Carlo example 8.14 (MC simulation for LTA with a continuous covariate) to LTA models with multiple covariates. Sorry for the confusion and thanks for understanding.
Raghav Ramachandran
posted on Monday, April 27, 2015 - 1:21 pm
Dr. Muthen,
I am analyzing Army data sets as a government contractor and am using MPlus in a virtual enclave, so I don't have a license number to share. However, I can provide a snapshot of my LTA Monte Carlo code:
TITLE: Monte Carlo simulation for LTA with 9 covariates
names are u1-u20 x1-x9 y1;
generate = u1-u20(1);
categorical = u1-u20;
genclasses = c1(2) c2(2);
classes = c1(2) c2(2);
type = mixture;
model population:
]; ...
; ...
c1#1 on x1-x9*0.1;
c2#1 on x1-x9*-0.1;
c2#1 on c1#1*0.4;
model population-c1:
%c1#1% !Class 1 at Time 1
c2#1 on x1-x9*0.3;
%c1#2% !Class 2 at Time 1
The following MODEL POPULATION statements are ignored:
Statements in Class %C1#1% of MODEL C1:
C2#1 on X2 ... C2#1 on X9
I hope this snapshot of my MPlus output helps and I wanted to know if there was a way for me to regress C2 on all covariates (x1-x9) in the class specific statements of the model for C1.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, April 27, 2015 - 2:25 pm
Mplus allows regression of c2 on all covariates x1-x9. To find out why your setup gets stopped we need to see your full output and that you have a support contract.
Peng qian
posted on Monday, October 31, 2016 - 1:34 am
Dr. Muthen,
Firstly, sorry to trouble!
I want to compute the correct classification rates(CCRs) in LTA simulations.
I have three questions:
1)How mplus simulate true latent classes for each person in LCA?
I can find the latent class for each person based on the estimated model in the generate data file.
However,no matter in the input or output file,I cannot find signs to simulate the true latent class for each person in mixture models.
2)How mplus simulate true latent classes for each person at each time in LTA?
3)In addition,I think it is meaningful to compute the first CCRs,but I wonder it is meaningful to compute CCRs in the other times or all times as a whole.
In the LTA ,I can set the class proportions for the first time,however for the other times,the proportions of each classes are computed by the transtion probabilities and the first time class proportions.
Thanks a lot!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, October 31, 2016 - 3:46 pm
1) - 2):
Look at the Monte Carlo versions of each mixture example. For instance, for ex7.3 you can use the lines
nrep = 100;
repsave = all;
save = ex7.3rep*.dat;
and you will find the true (generated) class membership of each subject shown in the last column of the saved data.
I think it is meaningful for all time points.
Peng qian
posted on Tuesday, November 01, 2016 - 12:51 am
Dr. Muthen,
Thanks for your helpful and prompt reply.
Thank you very much,I think I mistook the generated class membership of each subject for the estimated data.
I have another three questions:
I want to understand deeply how mplus to simulate the class membership of each subject?
In the simulation of the LCA model, I can set the numbers of subjects, replications, items, item thresholds, but I do not know how to simulate the class membership of each subject in the mplus?
Can I get the model estimated data results of each subject in the Monte Carlo study at the same time?
*** ERROR in SAVEDATA command
The SAVEDATA command is not available in conjunction with the MONTECARLO commnand.
Use the SAVE and RESULTS options in the MONTECARLO command as desired.
If 2-1) not, that is to say, I have to estimate each generated data in mplus. I want to know if there is some way to use all the generated data(eg, nrep = 100;) in one input file to get the all estimated data , just like in the simulation( repsave = all; save = ex7.3rep*.dat;).
I want to computer the mean absolute parameter recovery deviations(MADs),but I just get one output files. Is it the last replication results or the average results as a whole? How can I get the each output file for all replications.
Thanks a lot!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, November 02, 2016 - 5:18 pm
1) - 2);
you choose the [c#1] value (assuming 2 classes) and this gives the probability of being in the first class. Then you do a random draw (Mplus does) and a person gets put in one of the two classes (as a function of that probability).
3) You would have to do External Monte Carlo (see UG Monte Carlo chapter 12 Step 1 and Step 2 examples) and then run each generated data set at a time (like you do real data), saving the information you want. Summaries can be done using "MplusAutomation" - see our website.
Ni Yuhan
posted on Tuesday, November 15, 2016 - 1:49 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
I'm confusing that how to define a correlation between two categorical indicators in LCA Montecarlo.
Assuming there are 5 categorical indicators y1-y5, here is my code:
f1 by y1-y2 @ 0.4;
f2 by y3-y5 @ 0.4;
Does this mean that there is a correlation between y1 and y2, and there are correlations among y3-y5?
Thanks a lot.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, November 15, 2016 - 5:24 pm
Yes because the factors make them correlated.
Ni Yuhan
posted on Saturday, November 19, 2016 - 5:29 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
I remember you mentioned that if we coded [c#1*0] then 50% of the cases would be put in each of the two classes.
So I guess that [c#1*0 c#2*0] would be applicable for 3-class.
But the output was not not like expectation.
As below:
names are y1-y5;
genclasses = c(3);
classes = c(3);
nobs = 250;
nrep = 100;
repsave = ALL;
save = 5 250_*.DAT;
type = mixture;
model population:
[c#1*0 c#
1 22.28730 0.08915
2 111.08100 0.44432
3 116.63170 0.46653
Is there any problem in input?
Thanks a lot.
Ni Yuhan
posted on Saturday, November 19, 2016 - 5:30 am
sorry there is a mistake
[c#1*0 c#2*0]
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Saturday, November 19, 2016 - 1:40 pm
Those zero logits are correct. But you have weak class separation in that the variable means are only about half a standard deviation apart. This means that there may be class switching over the replications, particularly when the sample is relatively small as it is here. We recommend the means to be at least 2 SDs apart.
Peng qian
posted on Monday, February 27, 2017 - 5:42 pm
Dear Dr. Muthen,
Firstly, sorry to trouble!
My question is that how to set random threshold value(e.g.-1.5~1.5) in the LTA simulation.
Thanks a lot!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, February 27, 2017 - 6:51 pm
I don't know what you mean. Are you talking about a multilevel model?
Peng qian
posted on Thursday, March 02, 2017 - 12:43 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
Firstly, sorry to trouble again!
Not multilevel model.
e.g.In the LTA simulation: I=3 items,T=3 times
model population-c1:
[u1$1*1] ;
[u2$1*1] ;
[u3$1*1] ;
[u1$1*-1] ;
[u2$1*-1] ;
[u3$1*-1] ;
In this example,the item threshold value is fixed(1 or -1).
Now,I want to set random threshold value(e.g.-1.5~1.5).
The queation is that how I can achieve it.
Thanks a lot!
Amanda Hagman
posted on Wednesday, March 08, 2017 - 2:04 pm
Hello Drs. Muthen,
I am running a Monte Carlo simulation to look at class enumeration under violations to conditional independence. I would like to replicate the graphs seen in the Nylund, Asparouhov, Muthen (2007), (1) percent of times the lowest IC values occured in each class, and (2) percent of times a nonsignificant p value was seen in the BLRT/LRT.
The output of my external monte carlo and the output gives an average IC's and list of IC values and BLRT average (from specifying tech14). Is there an easy way to see individual results reported or more detailed reports in the output so I can replicate this type of table?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, March 08, 2017 - 6:07 pm
You can do that using the R program MplusAutomation on our website.
Peng qian
posted on Tuesday, March 21, 2017 - 7:48 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
Thanks a lot!
I am troubled in LTA simulation study.
It is that I can not get the analysis data in my output file when use the simulated 1000 person data ,but 200 person data is ok.
The output information as follows:
Class probabilities were not computed.
No data were saved.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, March 21, 2017 - 5:59 pm
We can answer this only when seeing your output - send to Support along with your license number.
Peng qian
posted on Sunday, April 02, 2017 - 10:17 pm
Dr. Muthen,
Now, I am doing LTA simulations.I set two steps:the first step, I get the genertate(real) data in the simulation;the second step, I use the real data to estimate the model.
I am troubled:
(1)In the first step ,I wander to konw if the part MODEL command (used as analysis) which follow the part MODEL POPULATION command(used as genertate data) is necessary exist.
My concern is that whether the "MODEL" influence the genertate data.
(2)The second is about the "MODEL CONSTRAINT"(eg.1) in the first step.How could I set those new variables(eg.L1_0, L1_11) starting values or population parameter values?
model population-c1:
%c1#1% ! Model for Class 1
[mitemf1$1*1] (T1_1); ! Item 1 Thresh 1
[mitemf2$1*1] (T2_1); ! Item 2 Thresh 1...
MODEL CONSTRAINT: ! Used to define LCDM parameters
! Item 1: Define LCDM parameters present for item 1
T1_1=-(L1_0); ! Item 1 Thresh 1
Peng qian
posted on Sunday, April 02, 2017 - 10:23 pm
Thanks a lot!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, April 05, 2017 - 5:50 pm
Send output to Support along with your license number.
Fredrik Falkenstr�m
posted on Thursday, May 10, 2018 - 10:27 am
Dear Drs. Muthen,
Is there a way in Mplus to just save the generated samples from a Montecarlo analysis without estimating any models on those samples? As it is, it takes many hours to estimate the models, and I would like to save the time.
Fredrik Falkenstr�m
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, May 10, 2018 - 3:15 pm
Choose convergence criteria such that only 1 or 2 iterations are done. Save the data using the example of 12.6 Step 1 (then do Step 2).
Fredrik Falkenstr�m
posted on Thursday, May 10, 2018 - 11:08 pm
Great, thanks!
Rose Stafford
posted on Thursday, September 13, 2018 - 12:54 pm
Hi Drs. Muth�n,
I am conducting a simulation study comparing continuous LCA (LPA) and mixture CFA (FMM). I would like the total (population) indicator variance to be the same for the LPA and FMM generated data, meaning that they would only differ in whether indicator covariance is solely due to a latent class factor (LPA) or both a latent class factor & a continuous latent factor (FMM).
I have questions concerning the variance specification in the LPA data-generation model. For example:
[y1-y10*.317]; !MD=1
A) Is 'y1-y10*1' referring to total indicator variance? Or is it referring to the indicators' residual variance after accounting for covariation between indicators due to the latent class factor?
B) If it is referring to total indicator variance, is there a way to specify or calculate the variance due to the latent class factor (or the residual variance)?
Multiple mixture MC sim studies provide 'residual variances' data generating population parameters, including your (Bengt's) 2007 publication with Lubke (Performance of FMM as a function of ...), and I am unsure how this would be specified.
I greatly appreciate your help!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 13, 2018 - 6:02 pm
The statement
gives the variance for y1-y10 in each class (because y is not regressed on any variables).
Mingchi Tseng
posted on Saturday, September 22, 2018 - 8:34 am
I read the Web Note No.21. Follow the content and through Monte carlo, I can have the same result with table 2 & 3. But I don't know how to write the syntax about '5 Simulation study with a non-normal distal auxiliary outcome' to get the same result with table 4. Please help.
Mingchi Tseng
posted on Monday, September 24, 2018 - 7:10 am
Dear Dr. Muthen,
how can I write syntax to creat the "bimodal distribution" in non-normal distal auxiliary outcome like P17 in Mplus Web Notes: No. 21. Please teach me. Thank you.
Tihomir Asparouhov
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2018 - 9:03 am
A regression of continuous (normal residual) on a binary variable gives bimodal.
Here is some sample code - the bimodal variable is X (non-normal distal auxiliary)
Names are u1-u5 x u;
Generate = u1-u5(1) u(1);
Categorical = u1-u5 u;
Genclasses = c(2);
Classes = c(2);
Nobservations = 1000;
Nrep = 1;
Analysis: Type = Mixture; algo=int;
Model Population:
x on u*1;
u on
[u1$1*-1 u2$1*-1 u3$1*-1 u4$1*-1 u5$1*-1];
[x*0]; [u$1*1.098];
x on u*1;
[u1$1*1 u2$1*1 u3$1*1 u4$1*1 u5$1*1];
[x*1]; [u$1*1.098];
x on u*1;
Mingchi Tseng
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2018 - 8:31 pm
Thank you so much. Now, I can creat bimodal distal outcome in Mplus.
Peter Edelsbrunner
posted on Monday, March 11, 2019 - 3:14 pm
I am conducting a monte carlo study on latent transition analyses in educational science and since I would like to compute RMSEs and bias on all datasets, I am wondering how Mplus manages to handle label switching in the computation of coverage etc in the monte carlo output, and whether I can use the same method for handling the outputs from my individually (via MplusAutomation) analyzed 1000 datasets?
Any help on this issue would be appreciated - perhaps label switching is still the reason none of the available simulation studies on mixture modeling report on bias and RSMEs, and instead always only on identifying the correct number of mixtures?
The only option I could find is provided in a paper that has been mentioned here: Tueller, Drotar, & Lubke (2011) "Addressing the Problem of Switched Class Labels in Latent Variable Mixture Model Simulation Studies" - is this still the best/only sufficiently well-working option for handling label switching in Mplus?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, March 12, 2019 - 5:55 pm
This is hard to do. The paper you refer to is the only approach I can think of - except having well-separated classes to begin with so switches across replications don't occur.
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Tensions at Fort Madison (1813)
In 1805 Zebulon Pike scouted out the area where the Mississippi and Des Moines rivers meet (now the southeast corner of the state). The United States had decided that the best way to compete with English traders in the area was to build their own government-sponsored trading posts and forts. Pike's job was to find a good location.
Soldiers Build Without Permission
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Indians Laugh at Cheap Goods
At first, business was brisk in the trading house outside the fort. The natives brought in skins and furs from deer, beaver, bear, raccoon and muskrat. They also brought lead mined from upriver, and feathers and bees' wax. In exchange, the government trading agency gave them swords, axes, tomahawks, knives and fishhooks, as well as blankets, fabric, ribbon and thread and beads. But the Indians laughed when they saw the government's goods because of their poor quality. The blankets were thin, and the knives and traps broke easily. The Indians could get much higher-quality goods from the English traders.
As time went on, the situation at Fort Madison grew tense. A number of small skirmishes occurred between the soldiers and the Indians, without much damage to either side. Finally, in 1813 the Sauk easily laid siege to the fort. From the ridge, only a few attackers were needed to keep the soldiers pinned in their barracks.
The commander of the fort sent to St. Louis for help. When none arrived, plans were made to evacuate. Secretly, the soldiers dug a trench from the fort to the river. In the night they escaped in their waiting boats to St. Louis—but first they set fire to the fort so nothing could be used by their enemy.
Fort Madison was not the only fort where tensions had turned to battles. Native Americans hadn't been given much say in whether forts should be built in their areas. And once the forts were built, they were supposed to trade their furs there, even though they could get better articles from the English traders. It was not an easy time in the Mississippi Valley.
But more forts were set up. In 1816 Fort Armstrong was built upriver, on Rock Island (across from present-day Davenport). Black Hawk talked later about the loss of that land:
We were very sorry, as this was the best island on the Mississippi, and had long been the resort of our young people during the summer. It was our garden (like the white people have near to their big villages) which supplied us with strawberries, blackberries, gooseberries, plums, apple, and nuts of different kinds; and its waters supplied us with fine fish, being situated in the rapids of the river. In my early life, I spent many happy days on this island. A good spirit had care of it, who lived in a cave in the rocks immediately under the placewhere the fort now stands, and has often been seen by our people. He was white, with large wings like a swan's, but ten times larger. We were particular not to make much noise in that part of the island which he inhabited, for fear of disturbing him. But the noise of the fort has since driven him away, and no doubt a bad spirit has taken his place!
The incident at Fort Madison was an early sign of more conflict that would come in the future. White settlers moving west wanted to farm the fertile soil of Iowa and Illinois. The Sauk and Meskwaki wanted to keep the land for hunting. Because there were many, many more white settlers than Native Americans, the white farmers would win the struggle over the Indian hunters. Twenty years after the attack on Fort Madison, the Sauk tribe was forced to leave their home on the Rock River and move west into Iowa.
- Ginalie Swaim, "Tensions on the Mississippi: Fort Madison," The Goldfinch 6, no. 2 (December 1984): 11.
Adapted from original article published in The Goldfinch, provided courtesy of State Historical Society of Iowa.


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The road that led to Brexit (and where it's heading)
The UK has voted to leave the European Union, sending ripples through financial markets that had anticipated a vote to maintain the status quo.
The media has been awash with opinions on the near-term implications for financial markets. We do not intend to add yet another view on the effect on financial markets; the red on our terminals provides a succinct summary. At Schroders we have prepared for the possibility of an Exit vote and believe others in our industry have done so as well.
Rather than speculate on future political decisions, we focus here on the underlying issues that led us to this point and their implications for the future. Those trends stretch far wider than the UK's continued membership of the EU and we believe remain underappreciated by financial markets.
Although characterised by the media as a vote on immigration or bureaucracy, a closer examination of the reasons voters gave shows a broader, more conventional list of concerns. It appears less a vote about borders and red tape and more a judgement on our economic and political system.
The Brexit vote reflects growing social tensions that have resulted from rising inequality, moribund income growth and falling job security, and discomfort with the political systems that have caused them. This is a global trend that is as evident in the US presidential elections as it is in demonstrations in Hong Kong or impeachments in Brazil.
It is a trend that is reflected in the continued decline in trust in political institutions across major economies. Eurobarometer finds that trust in national EU governments has fallen by one-third since the mid-2000s. EKOS, an economic and social research consultancy, finds an even larger drop in the US, where the percentage of respondents saying they trust their government to do what is right most or all of the time has fallen from over 70% in the 1960s to under 20% most recently.
Tensions are building and will lead to more political "surprises" in the future. We focus here on three drivers we believe underpin the tensions that have led us to this point, and examine their implications for businesses and investors.
More protectionist, domestically-focused policies
For decades, globalisation has been a dominant political theme across developed and emerging economies, and has generally been very successful. Growth in global trade has outstripped GDP more than two-fold over the last 30 years, international migration is up 40% since the start of the century and the stock of foreign direct investment is a three times larger share of global GDP than it was 20 years ago.
While those policies have generally achieved what they set out to deliver, they have exacerbated social tensions within countries. Economies are becoming more global but societies are still national. Globalisation may raise overall economic growth but its speed has left many unable to adjust. Consequently, whereas global incomes have risen and inequality fallen, the opposite is true within most countries.
The result has been rising tensions in many societies, which see (in many ways correctly) globalisation as the cause of their problems, and are looking for solutions that will shield them from those forces.
While it is doubtful protectionism can work given the extent to which globalisation has permeated economies and societies – disentangling the "good" and "bad" bits is virtually impossible – there is likely to be support for politicians that promise to try.
Global businesses need to operate locally
Societies are still defined at a local level and while large companies have become more international, the most successful are doing so through locally defined tactics. Companies that focus on understanding the environments they operate in and tailoring their strategies will be better able to meet the diverse needs of customers, employees, regulators and other stakeholders in the markets in which they compete.
Companies in more global sectors will typically face both greater challenges and opportunities adapting to an environment in which local expectations and regulations are unique and require distinct strategies. The chart below plots the share of revenues European companies in each sector generate outside their largest market, based on reported geographic sales. Those towards the left of that chart will typically face a wider range of markets.
More political and social instability
Disillusion has spawned a search for alternatives. Change has become a more attractive choice than maintaining the status quo. This is not restricted to the left or right of the political spectrum; both ends have benefited from disappointment with the middle ground. Movements like Occupy gather the headlines but the rise in voter turnout over the last decade is a far more powerful force.
Insofar as we are doubtful any single solution exists to the challenges voters face, it's likely that hopes for a panacea will be passed from one party to another, leading to potentially significant swings in political tendencies in short periods.
Flexibility and adaptability are key
Effective corporate strategy is becoming less about forecasting the future and plotting a course towards it, and more about building the organisational resilience to adapt to unexpected change. Culture, oversight, incentives and structure are more important and durable strengths than forecasting abilities or deal making skills. Effective corporate governance is an important element of that flexibility, as is the ability of managers and employees to engage stakeholders to identify pressures at a local level.
Companies that operate in industries in which change is common and where governance is typically stronger, should be better prepared to meet the challenge of more fluid regulation, political pressures and social expectations. In contrast, those which are typically less attuned to change, may be less prepared, particularly where governance is weaker.
More pressure to ensure workers and societies benefit
The failure of most people to benefit from the globalisation and global economic expansion of recent decades lies at the heart of much of the disquiet. Median incomes in the US have not risen since the mid-1990s, allowing for inflation. Since the financial crisis, the average worker in OECD countries has seen their standard of living fall 5-10%. Meanwhile those who own financial assets have seen their value rise, buoyed by quantitative easing, and media headlines are filled with stories of CEO pay packages and corporate riches.
That perception is supported by evidence. Corporate profits have been a rising share of GDP for decades, mirroring the declining payout to workers. CEO remuneration has continued to escalate far faster than employee wages. We believe the pendulum of power is likely to swing back towards workers going forward. Accelerated by the events of 2008, trust of big business has been in long-term decline and governments have been given a clear mandate to regulate for social benefits.
Compounding the social pressure, governments cannot afford to continue supporting employed workers unable to get by on the wages they receive; their responses are already evident in the social and political focus on living wages, tax avoidance, pension and healthcare reform and other "subsidies" from the public to private sector.
Investing to strengthen stakeholder relationships
Long-term success ultimately stems from companies' abilities to attract talent, engage customers, manage supply chains and establish strong relationships with the spectrum of stakeholder they rely on. Companies that ensure stakeholders – in particular employees – benefit from those relationships, through adequate wages and reasonable working conditions, will be better able to withstand mounting pressures without suffering margin squeezes, compared to those that continue to see stakeholder investment as a trade-off to profitability.
Companies operating in industries where wages are typically lower will face the greatest pressures, while those which also contend with low operating margins will have less room for manoeuvre. Higher wages across a sector are ultimately likely to push prices up, leaving the industry's overall profitability broadly unchanged, but with potentially significant shifts in value from those businesses that rely on low wages and those that do not.
The strongest companies will address the causes rather the symptoms
While every company faces immediate challenges in the aftermath of Brexit, those that recognise and adapt to the underlying trends the vote reflects will be in a stronger position for the long term. We have focused on three trends here, although the challenges and opportunities are likely to be more complex and diverse:
- More protectionist, domestically-focused policies: global businesses need to operate locally
- More political and social instability: flexibility and adaptability are key
- More pressure to share rewards with workers and societies: investing to strengthen stakeholder relationships
Whereas these considerations are typically far better understood in the corporate world than in financial markets, differences remain between companies and present investment opportunities for those investors able to understand them.
We need a better tool kit
As investors, the Brexit vote highlights the growing need for new models and tools. The fundamentals of markets are constant. In the long run, earnings drive equity returns and in the shorter term, fluctuations in sentiment and valuation multiples force variations around those longer term trends.
However, the lenses markets have conventionally used to examine these issues tend to assume maintenance of the status quo and are becoming increasingly exposed as inadequate. Our industry has built short-term earnings models based on analysis of current operations, recent financial trends and near-term economic forecasts. We have compared the earnings that emerge from that modelling to share prices and based decisions on companies' relative attractions. The effects of changing social pressures – while often recognised and accepted to be important – do not fit that model.
As a result, we are convinced new tools are needed. At Schroders, we are focusing on building analytical models and tools that reflect companies' abilities to adapt to the changing social and environmental trends they face. This means analysing industries and the ways social trends impact business models, competitiveness and profitability. It means focusing on how companies are run, rather than just on how much money they make. And it means thinking about investments as companies not symbols.


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Instant Analysis of the Packers' decision to fire Mike McCarthy
It was surprising but not unexpected that the Green Bay Packers parted ways with coach Mike McCarthy. Here's the immediate reaction to the move as the attention now turns to the offseason, where the Packers will have to hire a new coach, make several roster moves, and prepare for the NFL Draft.
Some notes about the move:
- It's only the second time a head coach has been fired in-season after winning a Super Bowl with the team. Don McCafferty of the Colts was let go two years after winning the championship in 1970.
- The last time the Packers had multiple head coaches in one season? 1953.
- Mike McCarthy finishes with a career regular-season record of 125-77-2 and a playoff record of 10-8 over nearly 13 seasons as the coach of the Packers.
Here are some of the write-ups from our Insiders and other outlets around the nation in response to the Packers firing Mike McCarthy.
Photo: Getty Images
Packers fire Mike McCarthy
{'author': 'Jimmie Kaska', 'description': 'The Green Bay Packers have parted ways with Head Coach Mike McCarthy and named Joe Philbin interim head coach, the team...
Green Bay Packers Have Fired Head Coach Mike McCarthy
{'author': 'David Gascon', 'description': 'The Green Bay Packers have fired Mike McCarthy. The team has named Joe Philbin as interim head coach.', 'image':...
Packers part ways with Head Coach Mike McCarthy, 'effective immediately'
{'author': 'Murphy & Meg', 'description': 'The Green Bay Packers have parted ways with Head Coach Mike McCarthy and named Joe Philbin interim head coach', 'image':...


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Celebrity Baby Theory Articles
The idea that two good looking celebrities often produce ugly kids.
Thank you to Jennie, or maybe not, for sending this link. Apparently this went down last night. Ryan Gosling and Blake Lively at Gibson Girl for ice cream... WHAT? Yes, there are photos. Separately. Because they wouldn't pose together. I don't want to talk about this. Full Story
Ultimate Challenge to the Celebrity Baby Theory
Here it is… Gisele Bundchen is reportedly pregnant. People says so. Which means Gisele and Tom Brady are approving the non-official announcement even though Radar had exclusively sourced it weeks ago. At the time, Tom denied it. Full Story
Amy & Will & Baby
I reported it exclusively last week and now Amy Poehler and Will Arnett have confirmed they are pregnant. As posted in my original article, Amy quit smoking and was experiencing morning sickness during SNL rehearshals. Full Story
The Off Season is Long
Very long. Probably even longer for Tom Brady who must be itching, absolutely foaming, to get back onto the field. Still…killing time before training camp would probably suck a lot harder without Gisele. And the couple made their first public appearance the other night since the big upset at a store opening in New York. Full Story
You Are Not Them
It's a giant f&ck you to us mortals – a family that looks like this. A family this ridiculously attractive. Ri-di-cu-LOUS. Totally not fair. And as always, the glaring exception to my Celebrity Baby Theory. Have a look and then wallow in your own ordinariness: Cindy Crawford and husband Rande Gerber (George Clooney's BFF) and their two children Presley and Kaya. Full Story
Mr and Mrs Burns
Christy Turlington and Ed Burns last night at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame… breathtaking Christy. Wow. Would be a good couple to test my Celebrity Baby Theory on. For those new to the site, the Celebrity Baby Theory works as follows: Hot + hot = Ugly Hot + average = Fairly attractive Average + Average = Hot Horse face stars + gay husbands = Cute Hot + Ugly = Ugly Average + Ugly = Uglier Ugly + Ugly = Donatella Versace I'm not going to name the specific children. Full Story


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Kirill Zaytsev's "Flagsters: Flags Letters Countries & Stereotypes" is a visual experiment using national flags and their verbal stereotypes to reimagine pre-existing national designs.
Because in every stereotype is a dose of truth, these flags truly hit the mark, every one. Take, for your first example Germany, above. Now click through to see the rest.[Behance via PSFK]


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You can use Headline Animator to create your own fully custom animated web widgets from your feed. To design your own Headline Animator (instead of using one of our pre-defined themes):
- Create a GIF that will serve as the background image for your Headline Animator
- Put this GIF on a web server somewhere (it needs to be available on the web)
- Sign in to FeedBurner, then navigate to Headline Animator on the Publicize tab for your feed
- Select "Provide your own background" from the "Theme" drop-down
- Paste the URL of your new background GIF and design your Headline Animator around that
Sample Custom Headline Animators
Looking for inspiration? Here are a handful of custom Headline Animators that might kick-start your creative side.


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events forDecember 30, 2020
Sunset Social Hour at Sorso by Scarpetta
Wednesday December 30, 2020 | 06:00 PM
Celebrity chef Scott Conant, of the award-winning Scarpetta is hosting a specialty pop-up located in Scarpetta's gorgeous lounge.
Sorso, a cocktail lab and infusion bar will be serving cocktails infused in a cold drip cocktail tower with the highest quality ingredients.
Several cold-brew infusions will be offered daily as well as the opportunity to create your own bespoke cocktail from house-infused spirits, shrubs and syrups.
Enjoy specially priced cocktails and Italian inspired snacks during Sunset Social Hour, every day from 6 - 7 PM.
Social Hour at Pizza & Burger
Pizza & Burger, Michael's Backyard Kitchen, is now serving up specially priced cocktails, half priced beer on tap and a savings on Sommelier's selection of sparkling, white and red wines, daily, from 5 - 7 PM. Reverse Hour 11 PM - 12 AM


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Dads who work as architects, dentists, firefighters, fishermen, car assembly workers or painters may have chosen wisely, at least according to a new study finding that these professions aren't linked to an increased risk of birth defects in men's offspring.
The study, by researchers at the North Carolina Center for Birth Defects Research and Prevention, found that certain jobs held by expectant fathers appeared to be associated with varying likelihoods of birth defects in their babies. In many cases, the connections seemed counterintuitive: ostensibly innocuous professions including mathematicians, office workers and artists fell into the increased risk category, while jobs that would appear to carry greater risk — painters who regularly inhale fumes, for example — did not.
(MORE: Generation X Report: Men Spend More Time in the Kitchen)
The study did not examine whether occupational exposures were responsible for the heightened risk of birth defects, but the authors theorize that they may play a role. Tania Desrosiers, one of the study's authors, said that factors contributing to birth defects may not always be obvious. "It could be, for example, that exposure to video display terminals among computer scientists is relevant, or that sitting all day at a desk raises scrotal temperature and causes damage to the sperm," Desrosiers wrote in an email. "We can only hypothesize about the underlying mechanisms."
The study, published in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, relied on data from the U.S. National Birth Defects Prevention Study, which is exploring a wide range of potential risk factors for major birth defects. Researchers looked at the job histories of about 5,000 fathers — nearly 1,000 dads who had a child with one or more congenital abnormalities born between 1997 and 2004 and more than 4,000 dads whose kids did not have birth defects.
(MORE: Stranger Danger: Are Parents Too Paranoid About Safety?)
The researchers also sorted jobs into 63 groups according to their exposure to chemicals or other potential dangers. Only those jobs held by fathers in the three months leading up to conception and during the first month of pregnancy were included; 90% of the dads had just one job during these four months, which are considered the time period when aberrations are most likely to be transmitted in sperm.
Complex mathematical analyses revealed that the following job types appeared to be connected with a greater chance of having a child with a birth defect in at least three categories:
- mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists
- artists
- photographers and photo processors
- food service workers
- landscapers and groundsmen
- hairdressers and make-up artists
- office and admin support workers
- sawmill operatives
- those working with petrol and gas
- those working in chemical industries
- printers
- those operating cranes and diggers
- drivers
(MORE: Why Fathers Have Lower Levels of Testosterone)
Some job fields were more likely to be associated with specific defects in babies: artists, for example, were more likely to have babies with defects of the mouth, eyes and ears, gut, limbs and heart. Photographers and photo processors were more likely to have babies with cataracts, glaucoma or defective eye tissue, while landscapers were more prone to having babies with gut abnormalities.
About a third of the 63 job groups were not associated with increased risk for birth defects. These categories included: architects and designers; health-care professionals; dentists; firefighters; fishermen; car assembly workers; entertainers; smelters and foundry workers; stonemasons and glass blowers/cutters; painters; train drivers/maintenance engineers; soldiers; commercial divers.
The findings are provocative and may serve as a jumping-off point for deeper research, but it's important to note that the current results are no reason for men to engage in sudden resume-buffing. Said Desrosiers: "…While we observed increases in risk of birth defects among children of fathers with different types of jobs, the occurrence of birth defects in the general population is rare. We don't advise that dads-to-be change jobs, though it may be prudent to reduce or avoid unnecessary exposure to potentially toxic exposures at work."


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|Written by Joe T
|Tuesday, 09 June 2009 20:46
According to the Federal Communication Commission's licensing and service requirements (federal code of regulations 73.503), the purpose of a non-commercial, educational broadcast station is to provide advancement of an educational program by means of:
WBWC's purpose is two-fold, one being a broadcast purpose and the other an academic purpose. WBWC's broadcast purpose is mandated by FCC law. As a non-commercial, educational broadcast facility, WBWC is licensed by the FCC to serve its audience, including the people of Berea, the Baldwin-Wallace College community, and the residents of Cleveland's southwest communities with:
These are the FCC programming parameters with which the staff, the Board of Directors, and the Faculty Advisor must consistently comply. Compliance here means to formulate and implement programming and operational policies. This process becomes the academic purpose, the academic content, and the opportunity for student (participant) learning in the field of broadcasting.
Since the broadcast purpose is confluent with the academic purpose, WBWC is committed to providing an environment that:


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This is an excerpt from ACSM's Guide to Exercise and Cancer Survivorship by American College of Sports Medicine.
Fruits and Vegetables
Because fruits and vegetables are loaded with both fiber and water, they enhance satiety, are low in calories, and may promote healthy weight management. Fruits and vegetables contain multiple nutrients and phytochemicals related to cancer reduction, and although it is not yet known which combination provides the best protection, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Cancer Institute, recommend at least seven daily servings for women and nine for men.
Fresh, frozen, and canned fruits and vegetables can all be nutrient-dense food choices. Fresh produce typically has the greatest nutritional value, but long periods in transit, in grocery stores, and on home shelves all contribute to nutrient loss. For this reason, produce frozen immediately after harvest may contain more nutrients than some fresh produce. Canning and drying processes reduce heat-sensitive and water-soluble nutrient content, although foods preserved with these methods may pose less of an infection risk for patients undergoing immunosuppressive cancer treatment.4 Immunosuppressed patients also should avoid eating unpeeled raw fruits or vegetables because they may contain pathogens, which are destroyed in the cooking process. In terms of cooking methods, microwaving and steaming, instead of boiling, avoids nutrient losses that occur when nutrients leach into cooking water that is then discarded.
Juicing provides a means for increasing fruit and vegetable intake, particularly for those who have difficulty chewing or swallowing. For those concerned about overeating, however, juices do not match the satiety value of whole fruits and vegetables; additionally, when large juice servings are consumed, excess calories can contribute to weight gain. Only 100% juices should be chosen—added sugars detract from the nutrient density of any beverage.
The use of pesticides and herbicides has increased tremendously since the 1940s, and although many have been phased out, their residues may still be in foods eaten today.5 There is no epidemiological evidence that current exposure levels cause cancer,5 but for those interested in a cautionary approach, fruits and vegetables may be peeled or washed in lemon juice or vinegar baths to reduce residual surface pesticides. The Environmental Working Group (EWG), a research and advocacy organization based in Washington, D.C., has identified "Dirty Dozen" fruits and vegetables (pears, apples, bell peppers, celery, nectarines, strawberries, cherries, kale, lettuce, and imported grapes and carrots), which may have comparatively higher pesticide residues than other fruits and vegetables; as a result, consumers are advised to buy those raised organically. In contrast, they deem the "Clean 15" (onions, avocados, sweet corn, pineapples, mangos, asparagus, sweet peas, kiwi, cabbage, eggplant, papaya, watermelon, broccoli, tomatoes, and sweet potatoes) to be relatively free of pesticide residues. Given shifting patterns in agriculture and large-scale buying in the free market, it is unknown whether these categorizations will be useful to those seeking to minimize their exposure to pesticides over the long term.
Organic Foods
The term organic commonly refers to plant foods grown without pesticides or genetic modifications, or to meat, poultry, and dairy products from animals raised without antibiotics or growth hormones. The FDA sets limits for produce exposure to agricultural chemicals, but as stated previously, it is unknown whether the choice of organic versus inorganic foods influences cancer incidence, recurrence, or progression. With regard to nutrient quality, a recent 50-year systematic literature review found no difference between organically and conventionally produced foodstuffs.
Read more from ACSM's Guide to Exercise and Cancer Survivorship by American College of Sports Medicine.
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Stress Free Silver Lake Property Management
Owning a residential rental property can be a lucrative investment, but it also carries with it its share of headaches and worries. Finding a skilled Silver Lake residential property manager can save you a lot of time and money.
With our full service Silver Lake property management, you get much more than just one over-worked property manager. You get a full team of skilled professionals with the expertise to provide you with the highest level of service and the maximum return on your investment.
Our Silver Lake area property managers will safeguard your property, manage your tenants, and protect your investment, all without you having to lift a finger. You'll be amazed at how much time and money our residential property management services can save you in both the long and short term.
Our Silver Lake apartment property management services include all necessary maintenance, tenant screening & management, and regular property inspections. Whether you own one unit or many in an apartment building, our Silver Lake property managers can handle it all.
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PMI does not charge early termination fees EVER! If you are not satisfied with our service, you may cancel our agreement at any time with a 30 day notice.
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You are looking to hire a property manager because you have a million other things going on in your life and we're committed to giving you peace of mind by maintaining the day-to-day operation of your property. State and city law are changing quickly which presents new legal challenges. For every property that we place with a tenant, PMI Golden State will provide free legal advice via telephone from our network of attorneys for up to 2 hours at no additional cost.
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We do not charge management fees unless property owners are paid. If we cannot find a qualified tenant for your property or the tenant fails to pay rent, you will not be charged by us for management.
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We perform a full credit and background check for all prospective tenants over 18 years of age. If the tenant breaches our lease agreement within the first 12 months, we will secure the next tenant for free.
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What We Do As Your Silver Lake Property Manager
We do more than just collect rent - 5 steps to successful management.
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Huber Woods Environmental Commitment
Utilizing and Replacing Renewable Resources for the Future
At Huber Engineered Woods LLC, we are a recognized leader in an industry that relies on the sustainable growth of natural resources. We are committed to the communities we serve, so conserving and protecting the environment we all share is a major focus throughout our organization.
Environmental Commitment That Goes Above and Beyond
We also adhere to our own Environmental Management System, integrating environmental considerations into our every day decision making. Each of our plants employs state-of-the-art environmental control equipment and maintains strict control standards to ensure that the manufacturing of Huber products has a minimal impact on the environment.
The bottom line is that we not only work in the communities where our facilities are located, we live and raise our families in those same communities.
Huber Engineered Wood Environmental Product Declarations
|Huber Wood EPD Fact Sheet
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|TruSpec EPD


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So after what seemed like four hours and five connecting flights, I arrived at Addenbrookes hospital on the outskirts of the city. Thanks to a bus timetable as reliable as US Senator Strom Thurmond's integrity*, I arrived at the talk late, but slunk in just as Mr Henman started talk, titled Combat Surgery: The Great Game from the Sidelines with a foray into his posting to Kuwait during the earlier war there, and how he coped with being a trauma surgeon on the frontlines.
He went on to describe his posting in Afghanistan before George W. Bush went trigger-happy into the region, and his medical work whilst the Taliban, the hardline Muslim government in power at the time, were still the recognised rulers there. Whilst his assignment with the British Territorial Army meant that his primary duty was to treat British servicemen there, the trauma unit he worked in couldn't turn away emergency cases being brought in from the battlefield, and these were mostly locals. So, in effect, he was a doctor for the Taliban. Back when they were still the good guys.
Read my latest post about what Mr Henman said over at Medscape. It describes how, from a combat surgeon's point of view, the conflict there was very different from what was reported in the media. A great example was when he had a conversation with one of his patients, a benign-looking man playfully holding a flower in his mouth when his photo was taken. This man also just happened to be the local Taliban commanding officer. Confiding in Mr Henman, he told him that all the Taliban wanted to do was to start from scratch, rebuilding Afghanistan, and once that was done, all he wanted to do personally was to settle down and open a hotel.
It was an enlightening talk, not only because of the unique view of the battlefield from a surgeon trapped in the middle of it (in an absolutely horrible-looking army camp complex, might I add) but also because Mr Henman gave us some insight into bullet injuries and landmine blasts, complete with gory pictures and actual bullets fired in the war. Do read the post over at Medscape's The Differential and leave a comment if you like it. (Careful though, there are already some comments there, and just a BIT of temper, so you might--- heyyy waitaminute. I'm getting the oddest sense of deja vu now. As if I've said something similar before... --Ed)
*(come on. Dedicating your life to denying human beings basic rights on the basis of a little melanin in their skin, then losing it, banging one of them and plopping out a baby? Disgraceful. They don't make racists like they used to. --Ed)


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In its analysis, the Territorial Review of Champagne-Ardenne identifies the gradual downward slide afflicting this intermediate region, which ranks fifth among French regions in terms of per capita GDP. What policy options will best strengthen its prime movers of growth? How can Champagne-Ardenne take advantage of its knowledge-based activities, tourism and rural amenities in order to further its development?
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