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Before the frightened believers realized what was happening, their pastor, Josué Ramírez Santiago, had been whisked away. Divergent press reports indicated the kidnappers, suspected drug traffickers active in the state, were about 10 in number.
The following day, the pastor's family received news that the criminals wanted a ransom of 20 million pesos (US$1.7 million). Even if the family could raise such an immense sum – considered doubtful – payment would not guarantee that the victim would be returned alive.
Arturo Farela, director of the National Fraternity of Evangelical Churches, has asserted that organized crime syndicates and drug cartels have targeted Christians because they view churches as revenue centers and because churches support programs for the rehabilitation of drug addicts and alcoholics.
"The majority of rehabilitation centers that have been attacked by organized crime in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana, Tepic and other places belong to the evangelical community," Farela said in a declaration regarding the kidnapping of Ramirez. "Furthermore, some 100 Mexican or foreign pastors who lived in Ciudad Juarez have had to abandon the city because of the threats and demands for money. And of course many pastors and their families have been victims of extortion, threats, kidnapping and homicide."
Farela has stated that 100 Mexican clergymen have been kidnapped in recent years, with 15 of them losing their lives to organized crime. Asked if Compass could review his records of these crimes, Farela said he was not authorized to permit it.
In numerous other cases, children of pastors have been kidnapped, including one from Matehuala, San Luis Potosi, who has not been heard from for some six months. The college-age daughter of a prominent pastor in Mexico City was held by kidnappers for a week but was released when the criminals grew tired of the father's prayers every time they telephoned him; the family has not revealed whether money was given for her return.
Michoacan, the state where the most recent abduction took place, has been a center of much criminal activity and also of severe reprisals by elements of the Mexican army. The state where President Felipe Calderon was born, Michoacan was the first to implement an anti-drug military operation that expanded to northern and eastern states.
In spite of the operation, more than 34,600 people nationwide have reportedly been assassinated since it was implemented in December 2006, with most of those crimes tied to drug traffickers "settling accounts."

subset: commoncrawl


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Are you sitting down? I had a meeting with House Speaker David Ralston last week at the Capitol.
Got your breath yet? There's more: It was a good meeting.
Several of our mutual friends had tried for some time to get the speaker and I together, saying we might have more in common than not. Had I been running the speaker's business, the meeting would have occurred long ago.
Some of our intrepid public servants don't seem to understand that ignoring the media is a bad strategy. Ignoring me is even worse. You present me an information void, and I will fill that sucker up with my opinions faster than you can say "sine die."
While Ralston and I may have a lot in common in the eyes of our mutual friends, we have been far apart on the matter of lobbyist expenditures. He had deemed the current system of unlimited spending by lobbyists and reporting those expenditures after the fact on the Ethics Commission website as satisfactory. He has changed his mind and has a proposal that would alter significantly the cozy lobbying environment under the Gold Dome. That was the purpose of our meeting.
If I was looking for a pompous, thin-skinned, self-important politician ready to kick my fanny over my seemingly incessant sarcastic comments on the subject, I was to be surprised. Ralston was affable and relaxed and even cracked a joke or two about "lizard-loafered lobbyists." Whew!
The speaker said when you spoke your concerns about lobbying limits during the recent elections, he heard you. Smart move. More than 80 percent of you said you wanted to see the cozy relationship between legislators and lobbyists changed. That, he said, is what he is trying to do.
Ralston said his bill is in no way an attempt to throttle free speech, as some have claimed. He quickly revised his proposal after hearing complaints that the measure would discourage individuals from coming to the Capitol to express their personal views. Now the focus is on those who represent organizations — volunteers and lobbyists — that spend more than five days a year advocating for or against an issue. They would have to pay a $25 fee and file disclosure reports.
One legislator told me that when someone comes into his office — paid or unpaid — and tells him how many members they represent and how many live in his district and suggests strongly that it would be in the legislator's interest to vote their way, that is a lobbyist, pure and simple. I agree.
Ralston believes some are trying to obfuscate the spirit of the legislation by railing — my words, not his — about stifling freedom of speech and miss the bigger and more important pieces, such as a complete ban on lobbyist expenditures on individual legislators such as meals, tickets to athletic events, concerts and other entertainment. There is an exception that would allow reimbursement for travel to conferences (no golf) and food and beverages at events for committees or for all members of the House and Senate.
Near and dear to my heart is restoring rule-making authority to the Georgia Government Transparency and (exhale) Campaign Finance Commission, better known to We the Unwashed as the State Ethics Commission. I was a member of the commission for five years. The commission deserves more respect than it has gotten from petty politicians in the past who resented the group enforcing the ethics laws (such as they were) and tried to make them irrelevant. This bill will bring some integrity back to the process, and that fact doesn't need to get lost in the controversy over who pays and who doesn't.
I suggest that those yelling about being asked to play the lobbing game on a level playing field stifle their self-interests long enough to push for the significant, positive changes in this bill.
While the speaker's proposal isn't perfect, it is a good start in the right direction. The bill certainly is better than the state Senate rule that caps lobbyist expenditures at $100 and has more holes in it than my favorite sweater.
To his credit, Ralston has gotten the message he had, up to this time, chosen to ignore. I am glad our mutual friends got us together and that I heard his views first-hand. I don't think we are ready to exchange Christmas cards yet list, but at least we are on speaking terms. That's a good start.
You can reach Yarbrough at firstname.lastname@example.com or P.O. Box 725373, Atlanta, GA 31139.
Are you sitting down? I had a meeting with House Speaker David Ralston last week at the Capitol.


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Felicity Fairchild. Age: 25. Hi ....... A few words about my mindset doing this line of work, When it comes to having sex with me, it's like a long lost boyfriend experience; playful, shameless & respectful.
12 Women on their first Lesbian Experience | Glamour
Margarita. Age: 26. My name is Margarita. I am a sexy and naughty girl. Sweet, sexy, friendly and outgoing. I will definitely make you feel Happy, Relaxed. I offer an Amazing service. I'm Pretty Girl with a fantastic Body!


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Handwoven from exquisite grey and buff rattan, this luxurious pet basket it is sure to make a statement in any home. A contemporary grey cushion is included with this bed to ensure maximum comfort for your four legged friend. The cushion outer is fully washable (on a low temperature, please!) and has a zip fastening so it can be easily detached from the foam inner. To clean the rattan we simply wipe down with a soapy water mix and leave to dry naturally. For an added touch, adorn the basket with cosy blankets that compliment your décor and add character to your space.
This basket comes in 3 sizes which would be suitable for the following dogs:
SMALL: Dachshund, Pug, Jack Russell Terrier.
MEDIUM: Cocker Spaniel, Beagle, Cavapoo.
LARGE: Golden Retriever, Labrador, Collie.
The above suggestions are just a guide as breed sizes do vary. Please double check the measurements against your dog, or call our friendly team on 01202 422600 for assistance. It's worth mentioning, if your dog is between sizes we always recommend you go for the larger one to prevent any squished noses!
Please note: Due to the handmade nature of our baskets, the measurements we provide are just a guide so please allow a +/- 5% difference. Shades may also vary from the images shown as our products are made from natural materials.
Standard (UK Mainland)
Delivery within 3 to 7 business days*
Standard (Highlands & Islands)
Delivery within 5 to 9 business days*
Next Business Day*
Order must be placed before 2pm on a business day*. UK mainland only.
Next Business Day before 12pm*
Order before 2pm on a business day*. UK mainland only.
Next Business Day before 10:30am*
Order before 2pm on a business day*. UK mainland only.
Order any day before 2pm Friday. UK mainland only.
Saturday before midday**
Order any day before 2pm Friday. UK mainland only.
Saturday before 10:30am**
Order any day before 2pm Friday. UK mainland only.
* Business day = Monday to Friday - excludes weekends and public holidays.
UK Mainland - mainland England, Wales, Scotland (southern & central)
Highlands & Islands - AB30-38, AB44-56, FK17-99, G83, HS1-9, IV1-28, IV30-56, IV63, KA27-28, KW1-17, PA20-33, PA34-49, PA60-78, PH18-26, PH30, PH31-44, PH49-50, ZE1-3.
We accept major credit and debit cards, including VISA, VISA Electron, Maestro and Mastercard, through our secure payment gateway. Payments can also be made using PayPal. We will charge your credit or debit card once you have completed your order with us. If you wish to make a payment over the phone please call us on 01202 422600 (Mon-Fri 9am-5pm), we're here to help.
Every effort has been made on this website to ensure that shopping online is safe and secure. We take the safety and security of all our customers very seriously. We have a fully encrypted website and have an SSL certificate.
If you would like any further information or have any questions please call us on 01202 422600 (Mon-Fri 9am-5pm) or use our contact form. Further more detailed information is also available within our Terms and Conditions.
You've received your order and it's not quite what you wanted
No problem. Just contact us via phone or email within 7 days of receipt of your order to notify us of your intent to return your order. All returns must be received by us within 14 days of receipt of your order. You will receive a full refund (including your original delivery cost). However, you will have to pay the postage costs of returning your order. We do offer a drop shop service. There is a charge for this service, however it often costs less than using other courier options. To find out more about using a drop shop service, you will need to contact us so we can advise you of the cost and email you a drop shop label with a list of drop shops near you where you can drop off your parcel to be returned to us. Upon receipt of the return, your refund will be processed within 7 working days. It is advised that you send your returns back using a recorded delivery service or at the very least to get proof of posting from the post office. I am afraid we are not responsible for items lost in the post. Items must be returned unused and in a saleable condition.
Please complete the section at the bottom of your delivery note and return this together with your order to:
The Basket Company, Unit 15, Endeavour Business Park, Crow Arch Lane, Ringwood, Hampshire, BH24 1SF
Your order has arrived damaged/faulty or is not as described
Please contact us within 7 days of receipt of your order to notify us of any problems. We will arrange a drop shop service so you can drop off your parcel to a drop shop near you or alternatively we will organise for your parcel to be collected (Monday to Friday during business hours). Upon receipt of the return we will fully refund your order (including postage) within 7 business days. If a replacement is required this will be sent out immediately subject to stock availability.
If you have any questions regarding the returns process then please don't hesitate to contact us via phone or email.


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I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses, " you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not know how to bet an "if/reverse. " A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses, " and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and if it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with slot dana terbaik two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the second game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet, " and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100. " Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B, " you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B. " and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse. "
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse. " When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule – When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky? " If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the second bet only if one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 ½ scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 ½ at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only ½ point away from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.


text:
Source: Anderson, Richard G.
Source: Jones, Barry E.
Release: Monetary Services Index (MSI)
Preferred benchmark rate equals 100 basis points plus the largest rate in the set of rates.
Alternative benchmark rate equals the larger of the preferred benchmark rate and the Baa corporate bond yield.
Anderson, Richard G. and Jones, Barry E., Real User Cost Index of MSI-M2 (preferred) [OCM2P], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OCM2P, September 22, 2023.


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Multimedia Gallery
The Multimedia Gallery features graphics from USGCRP reports, including the Third National Climate Assessment, the Our Changing Planet annual report series, and others. Scroll down to browse. Plus:
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Graphics in the gallery credited to USGCRP or another Federal entity are free to use with credit given to the original source. All other graphics may be copyright protected; obtain permission from the original source or contact USGCRP before using.


text:
"Twentieth Evening" is number 45 in the Hans Christian Andersen Center's register of Andersen's literary works, i.e. no. 45 in the category fairy tale (the range 1 - 300). BFN 360.
"Twentieth Evening" was first published 20 December 1839. Further information: Digterens danske Værker 1822-1875 number 360.
The work was published (20 December 1839) as a part of Picture Book Without Pictures. (Number 306. BFN 360. Category/genre: Fairy tale collection).
Show this work in its context: all new Andersen publications from 1839.
The work was published later (21 December 1844) as a part of Billedbog uden Billeder. Anden forøgede Udgave [Danish title]. (Number 310. BFN 457. Category/genre: Fairy tale collection).
The work was published later (April 1847) as a part of Picturebook Without Pictures. (Number 313. Category/genre: Fairy tale collection).


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Quantum Restoration Services is a top-rated flood damage mitigation company specializing in water extraction and flood cleanup services in the Bellmawr, NJ area. Water damage from storms and floods can wreak havoc on your home, commercial, or industrial property. Our flood and water damage repair and cleanup experts provide 24/7 emergency services for your immediate flood and water restoration needs.
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text: Catalogue Auction info Fine Art & Antiques(#220621) 22/06/2021 10:00 AM GMT CLOSED Lot 21 of 898: A silver photograph frame, M&LS, London 1991, of chinoiserie design, to take a photograph 16cm x 11cm, another of Art Nouveau design to take a photograph 20cm x 15cm and two other photograph frames Click image to enlarge PreviousNextSimilar Items Lot closed - Winning bid:£310 Estimate: £400 - £600 Remove from watchlist Add to watchlist Ask a question Fine Art & Antiques(#220621) 22/06/2021 10:00 AM GMT CLOSED Description Description: A silver photograph frame, M&LS, London 1991, of chinoiserie design, to take a photograph 16cm x 11cm, another of Art Nouveau design to take a photograph 20cm x 15cm and two other photograph frames Categories: Silver, Plate & White Metal Price: Shipping info All buyers must arrange immediate payment upon notification of a successful bid and are responsible for organising collection of their goods from the saleroom by 5pm on the Friday after the auction, unless otherwise agreed in advance with Chorley's. It may be possible for Chorley's to send small, non-fragile, items by post to buyers living in the UK. Please contact us to check before bidding. Contact details for suggested Shippers and Couriers can be found on our SHIPPING page. Terms and conditions TERMS OF SALE Both the sale of goods at our auctions and your relationship with us are governed by the Terms of Consignment (primarily applicable to sellers), the Terms of Sale (primarily applicable to bidders and buyers) and any notices displayed in the saleroom or announced by us at the auction (collectively, the "Conditions of Business"). The Terms of Consignment and Terms of Sale are available at our saleroom on request. Please read these Terms of Sale carefully. Please note that if you register to bid and/or bid at auction this signifies that you agree to and will comply with these Terms of Sale. Please note that these Terms of Sale relate to auctions held at our premises only. 1. Definitions and interpretation 1.1 To make these Terms of Sale easier to read, we have given the following words a specific meaning: "Auctioneer" means Chorley's, a partnership or company registered in England and Wales with registration number with registration number 5857433 and whose registered office is located Staverton Court, Staverton, Cheltenham GL51 0UX or its authorised auctioneer, as appropriate; "Bidder" means a person participating in bidding at the auction; "Buyer" means the person who makes the highest bid for a Lot accepted by the Auctioneer; "Deliberate Forgery" means: (a) an imitation made with the intention of deceiving as to authorship, origin, date, age, period, culture or source; (b) which is described in the catalogue as being the work of a particular creator without qualification; and (c) which at the date of the auction had a value materially less than it would have had if it had been as described; "Hammer Price" means the level of the highest bid for a Lot accepted by the Auctioneer by the fall of the hammer; "Lot(s)" means the goods that we offer for sale at our auctions; "Premium" means the premium that we will charge you on your purchase of a Lot to be calculated as set out in Clause 4; "Reserve" means the minimum hammer price at which a Lot may be sold; "Sale Proceeds" means the net amount due to the Seller; "Seller" means the persons who consign Lots for sale at our auctions; "Terms of Consignment" means the terms on which we agree to offer Lots for sale in our auctions as agent on behalf of Sellers; "Terms of Sale" means these terms of sale, as amended or updated from time to time; "Total Amount Due" means the Hammer Price for a Lot, the Premium, any applicable artist's resale right royalty, any VAT due and any additional charges payable by a defaulting buyer under these Terms of Sale; "Trader" means a Seller who is acting for purposes relating to that Seller's trade, business, craft or profession, whether acting personally or through another person acting in the trader's name or on the trader's behalf; "VAT" means Value Added Tax or any equivalent sales tax; and "Website" means our website available at www.chorleys.com. In these Terms of Sale the words 'you', 'yours', etc. refer to you as the Buyer. The words "we", "us", etc. refer to the Auctioneer. Any reference to a 'Clause' is to a clause of these Terms of Sale unless stated otherwise. 2. Information that we are required to give to Consumers 2.1 A description of the main characteristics of each Lot as contained in the auction catalogue. 2.2 Our name, address and contact details as set out herein, in our auction catalogues and/or on our Website. 2.3 The price of the Goods and arrangements for payment as described in Clauses 4, 5, 7 and 8. 2.4 The arrangements for collection of the Goods as set out in Clauses 8 and 9. 2.5 Your right to return a Lot and receive a refund if the Lot is a Deliberate Forgery as set out in Clause 13. 2.6 We and Trader Sellers have a legal duty to supply any Lots to you in accordance with these Terms of Sale. If you have any complaints, please send them to us directly at the address set out on our Website. 3. Bidding procedures and the Buyer 3.1 You must register your details with us before bidding and provide us with any requested proof of identity and billing information, in a form acceptable to us. You must also satisfy any security arrangements we have in place before entering the auction room to view or bid. 3.2 We strongly recommend that you attend the auction in person. You are responsible for your decision to bid for a particular Lot. If you bid on a Lot, including by telephone and online bidding, or by placing a commission bid, we assume that you have carefully inspected the Lot and satisfied yourself regarding its condition. 3.3 If you instruct us in writing, we may execute commission bids on your behalf. Neither we nor our employees or agents will be responsible for any failure to execute your commission bid, unless our failure to do so is unreasonable. Where two or more commission bids at the same level are recorded we have the right to prefer the first bid made (where this can be reasonably ascertained). 3.4 The Bidder placing the highest bid for a Lot accepted by the Auctioneer will be the Buyer at the Hammer Price. Any dispute about a bid will be settled at our discretion. We may reoffer the Lot during the auction or may settle the dispute in another way. We will act reasonably when deciding how to settle the dispute. 3.5 Bidders will be deemed to act as principals, even if the Bidder is acting as an agent for a third party. 3.6 We may bid on Lots on behalf of the Seller up to one bid below the Reserve. 3.7 We may refuse to accept any bid if it is reasonable for us to do so. 3.8 Bidding increments will be at our sole discretion (but will be in line with standard auction practice). 4. The purchase price As Buyer, you will pay: 4.1 the Hammer Price; 4.2 a premium of a percentage of the Hammer Price on an incremental basis: 20% on the first £100,000 15% on the excess between £100,001 and £500,000 12.5% on the excess between £500,001 and £1,000,000 10% on any excess above £1,000,000 4.3 any artist's resale right royalty payable on the sale of the Lot; and 4.4 any VAT due. 5. VAT 5.1 You shall be liable for the payment of any VAT applicable on the Hammer Price and premium due for a Lot. Please see the symbols used in the auction catalogue for that Lot and the "Information for Buyers" in our auction catalogue for further information. 5.2 We will charge VAT at the current rate at the date of the auction. 6. The contract between you and the Seller 6.1 The contract for the purchase of the Lot between you and the Seller will be formed when the hammer falls accepting the highest bid for the Lot at the auction. 6.2 You may directly enforce any terms in the Terms of Consignment against a Seller to the extent that you suffer damages and/or loss as a result of the Seller's breach of the Terms of Consignment. 6.3 If you breach these Terms of Sale, you may be responsible for damages and/or losses suffered by a Seller or us. If we are contacted by a Seller who wishes to bring a claim against you, we may in our discretion provide the Seller with information or assistance in relation to that claim. 6.4 We normally act as an agent only and will not have any responsibility for default by you or the Seller (unless we are the Seller of the Lot). 7. Payment 7.1 Immediately following your successful bid on a Lot you will: 7.1.1 give to us, if not already provided to our satisfaction, proof of identity in a form acceptable to us (and any other information that we require in order to comply with our anti-money laundering obligations); and 7.1.2 pay to us the Total Amount Due with cash, debit card, credit card and bank transfer (maximum payment by cash or credit card of £1000 per auction). 7.2 If you owe us any money, we may use any payment made by you to repay these debts. 8. Title and collection of purchases 8.1 Once you have paid us in full the Total Amount Due for any Lot, ownership of that Lot will transfer to you. You may not claim or collect a Lot until you have paid for it. 8.2 You will (at your own expense) collect any Lots that you have purchased and paid for either: 8.2.1 not later than seven business days following the day of the auction; or 8.2.2 not later than seven business days following the date that we have received payment of the Total Amount Due in cleared funds, if later. 8.3 If you do not collect the Lot within this time period, you will be responsible for any reasonable removal, storage and insurance charges in relation to that Lot. 8.4 Risk of loss or damage to the Lot will pass to you when you (or your agents) take physical possession of the Lot. 8.5 If you do not collect the Lot that you have paid for within thirty days after the auction, we may sell the Lot. We will pay the proceeds of any such sale to you, but will deduct any storage charges or other sums that we have incurred in the storage and sale of the Lot. We reserve the right to charge you a selling commission at our standard rates on any such resale of the Lot. 9. Remedies for non-payment or failure to collect purchases 9.1 Please do not bid on a Lot if you do not intend to buy it. If your bid is successful, these Terms of Sale will apply to you. This means that you will have to carry out your obligations set out in these Terms of Sale. If you do not comply with these Terms of Sale we may (acting on behalf of the Seller and ourselves) pursue one or more of the following measures: 9.1.1 take action against you for damages for breach of contract; 9.1.2 reverse the sale of the Lot to you and/or any other Lots sold by us to you; 9.1.3 resell the Lot by auction or private treaty (in which case you will have to pay any difference between the price you should have paid for the Lot and the price we sell it for as well as the charges outlined in Clause 8.5). Please note that if we sell the Lot for a higher amount than your winning bid, the extra money will belong to the Seller; 9.1.4 remove, store and insure the Lot at your expense; 9.1.5 if you do not pay us within seven business days of your successful bid, we may charge interest at a rate not exceeding 1.5% per month on the total amount due; 9.1.6 keep that Lot or any other Lot sold to you until you pay the Total Amount Due; 9.1.7 reject or ignore bids from you or your agent at future auctions or impose conditions before we accept bids from you; and/or 9.1.8 if we sell any Lots for you, use the money made on these Lots to repay any amount you owe us. 9.2 We will act reasonably when exercising our rights under Clause 9.1. We will contact you before exercising these rights and try to work with you to correct any non-compliance by you with these Terms of Sale. 10. Health and safety Although we take reasonable precautions regarding health and safety, you are on our premises at your own risk. Please note the lay-out of the premises and security arrangements. Neither we nor our employees or agents are responsible for the safety of you or your property when you visit our premises, unless you suffer any injury to your person or damage to your property as a result of our, our employees' or our agents' negligence. 11. Warranties 11.1 The Seller warrants to us and to you that: 11.1.1 the Seller is the true owner of the Lot for sale or is authorised by the true owner to offer and sell the lot at auction; 11.1.2 the Seller is able to transfer good and marketable title to the Lot to you free from any third party rights or claims; and 11.1.3 as far as the Seller is aware, the main characteristics of the Lot set out in the auction catalogue (as amended by any notice displayed in the saleroom or announced by the Auctioneer at the auction) are correct. 11.2 If, after you have placed a successful bid and paid for a Lot, any of the warranties above are found not to be true, please notify us in writing. Neither we nor the Seller will be liable to pay you any sums over and above the Total Amount Due and we will not be responsible for any inaccuracies in the information provided by the Seller except as set out below. 11.3 Please note that many of the Lots that you may bid on at our auction are second-hand. 11.4 If a Lot is not second-hand and you purchase the Lot as a Consumer from a Seller that is a Trader, a number of additional terms may be implied by law in addition to the Seller's warranties set out at Clause 11.1 (in particular under the Consumer Rights Act 2015). These Terms of Sale do not seek to exclude your rights under law as they relate to the sale of these Lots. 11.5 Save as expressly set out above, all other warranties, conditions or other terms which might have effect between the Seller and you, or us and you, or be implied or incorporated by statue, common law or otherwise are excluded. 12. Descriptions and condition 12.1 Our descriptions of the Lot will be based on: (a) information provided to us by the Seller of the Lot (for which we are not liable); and (ii) our opinion (although it is likely that we will not be able to carry out a detailed inspection of each Lot). 12.2 We will give you a number of opportunities to view and inspect the Lots before the auction. You (and any independent consultants acting on your behalf) must satisfy yourself about the accuracy of any description of a Lot. We shall not be responsible for any failure by you or your consultants to properly inspect a Lot. 12.3 Representations or statements by us as to authorship, genuineness, origin, date, age, provenance, condition or estimated selling price involve matters of opinion. We undertake that any such opinion will be honestly and reasonably held and accept liability for opinions given negligently or fraudulently. 12.4 Please note that Lots (in particular second-hand Lots) are unlikely to be in perfect condition. Lots are sold "as is" (i.e. as you see them at the time of the auction). Books are not collated and are not guaranteed to be complete. The absence of any reference to condition in any description does not imply the lot is without fault. Chorley's do not usually include condition information in catalogue or online descriptions, however we are happy to provide a condition report for any lot upon request before the auction. Neither we nor the Seller accept any liability for the condition of second-hand Lots or for any condition issues affecting a Lot if such issues are included in the description of a Lot in the auction catalogue (or in any saleroom notice) and/or which the inspection of a Lot by the Buyer ought to have revealed. 12.5 Historically many gemstones have been subject to a variety of treatments to enhance their appearance. Sapphires and rubies are routinely heat treated to improve their colour and clarity, emeralds are also frequently treated with oils or resin for the same purpose. Treatments such as staining, irradiation or coating may have been used on other gemstones. These treatments may be permanent, whilst others may need special care or re-treatment to retain their appearance. Bidders should be aware that estimates assume that gemstones may have been subjected to such treatments. A number of laboratories issue certificates that give more detailed descriptions of gemstones, however there may not be consensus between different laboratories on the degrees or types of treatment for any particular gemstone. In the event that Chorley's has been given or obtained certificates for any lots in the sale, these certificates will be disclosed in the catalogue. In the event that no certificate is published in the catalogue, bidders should assume that the gemstone may have been treated. Neither Chorley's nor the seller accepts any liability for contradictions or differing certificates obtained by buyers on any lots subsequent to the sale. 13. Deliberate Forgeries 13.1 You may return any Lot which is found to be a Deliberate Forgery to us within six months of the auction provided that you return the Lot to us in the same condition as when it was released to you, accompanied by a written statement identifying the Lot from the relevant catalogue description and a written statement of defects. 13.2 If we are reasonably satisfied that the Lot is a Deliberate Forgery we will refund the money paid by you for the Lot (including any Premium and applicable VAT) provided that if: 13.2.1 the catalogue description reflected the accepted view of experts as at the date of the auction; or 13.2.2 you personally are not able to transfer good and marketable title in the Lot to us, you will have no right to a refund under this Clause 13.2 13.3 If you have sold the Lot to another person, we will only be liable to refund the price that you paid for the Lot. We will not be responsible for repaying any additional money you may have made from selling the Lot. 13.4 Your right to return a Lot that is a Deliberate Forgery does not affect your legal rights and is in addition to any other right or remedy provided by law or by these Terms of Sale. 14. Ivory and Endangered Species Chorley's condemns the poaching of all species, especially African elephants and the wanton destruction of natural habitat. Thus we will offer for sale no ivory products produced after June 1947, the date of the Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We consider that pieces produced before this date are likely to be purchased as pieces of artistic or cultural merit, which happen to contain ivory, rather than be purchased for their ivory content. Due to international laws, any item on the Endangered species list, whether it dates from the 18th/19th Century or the 1930s, requires re-export permits for bidders outside the EU (CITES). Some countries also require import permits as well and all permits must be in place prior to shipment. Chorley's cannot be held liable if a purchaser buys a lot that comes within this field and then import/export licences cannot be arranged. It is the potential buyer's responsibility to check the applicable regulations before bidding for a lot which comes under these laws. 15. Our liability to you 15.1 We will not be liable for any loss of opportunity or disappointment suffered as a result of participating in our auction. 15.2 In addition to the above, neither we nor the Seller shall be responsible to you and you shall not be responsible to the Seller or us for any other loss or damage that any of us suffer that is not a foreseeable result of any of us not complying with the Conditions of Business. Loss or damage is foreseeable if it is obvious that it will happen or if at the time of the sale of the Lot, we, you and the Seller knew it might happen. 15.3 Subject to Clause 15.4, if we are found to be liable to you for any reason (including, amongst others, if we are found to be negligent, in breach of contract or to have made a misrepresentation), our liability will be limited to the total purchase price paid by you to us for any Lot. 15.4 Notwithstanding the above, nothing in these Terms of Sale shall limit our liability (or that of our employees or agents) for: 15.4.1 death or personal injury resulting from negligence (as defined in the Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977); 15.4.2 fraudulent misrepresentation; or 15.4.3 any liability which cannot be excluded by law. 16. Notices 16.1 All notices between you and us regarding these Terms of Sale must be in writing and signed by or on behalf of the party giving it. 16.2 Any notice referred in Clause 16.1 may be given: 16.2.1 by delivering it by hand; 16.2.2 by first class pre-paid post or Recorded Delivery; or 16.2.3 by email, provided that a copy is also sent by pre-paid post or Recorded Delivery. 16.3 Notices must be sent: 16.3.1 by hand or registered post: a. to us, at our address set out in these Terms of Sale or at our registered office address appearing on our Website; and b. to you, at the last postal address that you have given to us as your contact address in writing; or 16.3.2 by email: a. to us, by sending the notice to both the following email addresses: firstname.lastname@example.com; firstname.lastname@example.com b. to you, by sending the notice to any email address that you have given to us as your contact email address in writing. 16.4 Notices will be deemed to have been received: 16.4.1 if delivered by hand, on the day of delivery; 16.4.2 if sent by first class pre-paid post or Recorded Delivery, two business days after posting, exclusive of the day of posting; or 16.4.3 if sent by email, at the time of transmission unless sent after 17.00 in the place of receipt in which case they will be deemed to have been received on the next business day in the place of receipt (provided that a copy has also been sent by pre-paid post or Recorded Delivery as set out in Clause 16.2.3) 16.5 Any notice or communication given under these Terms of Sale will not be validly given if sent by fax, email, any form of messaging via social media or text message. 17. Data Protection We will hold and process any personal data in relation to you securely, in accordance with the 2018 General Data Protection Regulation. 18. General 18.1 We may, acting reasonably, refuse admission to our premises or attendance at our auctions by any person. 18.2 We act as an agent for our Sellers. The rights we have to claim against you for breach of these Terms of Sale may be used by us, our employees or agents, or the Seller, its employees or agents, as appropriate. Other than as set out in this Clause, these Terms of Sale are between you and us and no other person will have any rights to enforce any of these Terms of Sale. 18.3 We may use special terms in the catalogue descriptions of particular Lots. You must read these terms carefully along with any glossary provided in our auction catalogues. 18.4 Each of the clauses of these Terms of Sale operates separately. If any court or relevant authority decides that any of them are unlawful, the remaining clauses will remain in full force and effect. 18.5 We may change these Terms of Sale from time to time, without notice to you. Please read these Terms of Sale carefully, as they may be different from the last time you read them. 18.6 Except as otherwise stated in these Terms of Sale, each of our rights and remedies are: (a) are in addition to and not exclusive of any other rights or remedies under these Terms of Sale or general law; and (b) may be waived only in writing and specifically. Delay in exercising or non-exercise of any right under these Terms of Sale is not a waiver of that or any other right. Partial exercise of any right under these Terms of Sale will not preclude any further or other exercise of that right or any other right under these Terms of Sale. Waiver of a breach of any term of these Terms of Sale will not operate as a waiver of breach of any other term or any subsequent breach of that term. 18.7 These Terms of Sale and any dispute or claim arising out of or in connection with them (including any non-contractual claims or disputes) shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England and the parties irrevocably submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts. 18.8 These Terms of Sale, forming part of our Conditions of Business, are based upon terms recommended by SOFAA (The Society of Fine Art Auctioneers & Valuers).


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WASHINGTON — U.S. employers added just 88,000 jobs in March, the fewest in nine months and a sharp retreat after a period of strong hiring. The slowdown may signal that the economy is heading into a weak spring.
The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate dipped to 7.6 percent, the lowest in four years, from 7.7 percent. But the rate fell only because more people stopped looking for work. People who are out of work are no longer counted as unemployed once they stop looking for a job.
The percentage of Americans working or looking for jobs fell to 63.3 percent in March, the lowest such figure in nearly 34 years.
Stocks plummeted after the report. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 157 points in morning trading. Broader indexes also declined.
March's job gains were less than half the average of the previous six months, when the economy added an average of 196,000 jobs a month. The government said hiring was even stronger in January and February than previously estimated. January's job growth was revised up from 119,000 to 148,000. February's was revised from 236,000 to 268,000.
Several industries cut back sharply on hiring in March. Retailers cut 24,000 jobs after averaging 32,000 in the previous three months. Manufacturers cut 3,000 jobs after adding 19,000 the previous month. Financial services shed 2,000.
The Labor Department uses a survey of mostly large businesses and government agencies to determine how many jobs are added or lost each month. That's the survey that produced the gain of 88,000 jobs for March. It uses a separate survey of households to calculate the unemployment rate.
In March, the number of people either working or looking for work fell by nearly 500,000. It was sharpest such drop since December 2010. And the number of Americans who said they were employed dropped nearly 210,000.
Average hourly pay rose a penny, the smallest gain in five months. Average pay is just 1.8 percent higher than a year earlier, trailing the pace of inflation, which rose 2 percent in the past 12 months.
"This is not a good report through and through," Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at brokerage firm BTIG, said in a note to clients.
Economists had hoped that the bigger pay increases in recent months would continue and boost Americans' ability to spend.
Some economists said they expect a slowdown this spring, though not as bad as in the past three years.
"We don't anticipate the slowdown becoming too severe, not when the housing recovery is firing on all cylinders, but it is a reminder that the U.S. is still unable to sustain what used to be just average rates of growth," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.
The decline in the work force reflects several trends, economists say: Many of those out of work become discouraged and give up on their job hunts. And as the population ages, more people are retiring.
And Gary Burtless, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, notes that many Americans have likely stopped looking for work because their unemployment benefits have run out.
"If people aren't collecting benefits, they have one less reason to be out pounding the pavement looking for a job," Burtless says.
Most analysts think the economy strengthened from January through March, helped by the pickup in hiring, a sustained recovery in housing and steady consumer spending. Consumers stepped up purchases in February and January, even after Social Security taxes increased this year.
Still the higher taxes have reduced paychecks. And many economists say steep government spending cuts that began taking effect March 1 will slow growth in the spring and summer.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said employers may be slowing hiring in anticipation of the impact of the spending cuts.
As federal agencies and contractors cut back in coming months, Behravesh expects jobs growth to average 100,000 to 150,000 a month, down from an average 212,000 from December through February.
"The good news is that this is happening at a time when the private economy is gaining momentum," Behravesh said. He expects hiring to pick up after mid-year.
Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities, thinks the economy expanded at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. But he forecasts that growth will slow to a 2 percent annual pace in the current second quarter, and then rebound after the impact of the government spending cuts fades.
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Building Name: Barclay Square Address: 1274 Barclay, Vancouver, BC, V6E 1H3 Subarea: West End Levels: 3 Suites: 48 Type: Freehold Construction: Wood Year Built: 1979
Sorry there are no listings currently available for Barclay Square.
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- Disclaimer: The data relating to real estate on this web site comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLSR logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.


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Editor's Note: Meg Urry is the Israel Munson professor of physics and astronomy and chairwoman of the department of physics at Yale University, where she is the director of the Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics.
Story highlights
Meg Urry: Friday was an extremely unusual day, astronomically speaking
Urry: The probability that a meteor hits and an asteroid passes by is improbable
She says the chance of the two events happening on the same day is about 1 in 100 million
Urry: Even though we think they could be connected, the two rare events are not connected
Friday was an extremely unusual day, astronomically speaking. Just as scientists were gearing up to witness an asteroid's closest ever approach to Earth in recorded history, a sizeable meteor exploded over Russia, causing thousands of injuries and major damage to buildings.
The asteroid, named DA14, came within 17,000 miles or so, as close as a telecommunication satellite in geosynchronous orbit. DA14 is quite a bit smaller than YU55, the asteroid that passed Earth in November 2011, but DA14 came more than 10 times closer.
These two rare events occurred the same day. Your inner mathematician and your inner prophet of the end times think they should be connected. But scientists say they are not. What gives?
11 meteor tweets we wish we'd thought of
First, some facts. Meteors are rocky bodies that enter the Earth's atmosphere. Some are leftover debris out of which planets like Earth are formed, while others are the remnants of shattered comets and asteroids. As long as their orbit intersects the Earth's orbit, these rocks can in principle impact the Earth.
Actually, this happens all the time, although usually the impacts occur in unpopulated regions since most of Earth is uninhabited. In fact, most meteors fall into the ocean simply because water covers two-thirds of the planet.
Stay up to date on the latest opinion, analysis and conversations through social media. Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion and follow us @CNNOpinion on Twitter. We welcome your ideas and comments.
So we don't witness most meteor impacts. If one landed in New York City or Moscow, people would definitely notice. Fortunately, the odds are very much against hitting a densely populated region.
The meteor that fell Friday near Chelyabinsk, Russia, was pretty big, maybe 50 feet across. In 1908, a slightly larger meteor – perhaps three times larger in diameter, or 27 times larger in mass – flattened a thousand square miles of forest near Tunguska, Russia, downing some 80 million trees.
NASA scientists estimate that meteors as large as Friday's might hit the Earth every decade or two, while Tunguska-like events are estimated to occur once every 1,000 years.
The close fly-by of an asteroid like DA14, like the Tunguska meteor, is a once-in-1,000-years event. Asteroids are large, irregular, rocky bodies orbiting the Sun roughly between Mars and Jupiter. Many have impacted the Earth over its 4.5 billion-year history –as they have hit the moon, Mars and other planets – leaving craters behind.
A particularly large asteroid – roughly 300 times larger across than DA14 (and 30 million times its volume, and far more rare) – created a planetary extinction event that did in dinosaurs 65 million years ago, allowing mammals to rise to their present-day prominence.
Opinion: Meteor shows why it is crucial to keep an eye on the sky
Using NASA's WISE infrared satellite, astronomers estimate there are about 5,000 known meteors that can impact the Earth with sizes of about 100 feet or larger – that is, larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor. Smaller ones are fainter and thus harder to find.
It makes sense that smaller asteroids pass Earth more frequently and, on average, closer. That's because in nature, small things are more common than big things. So asteroids like YU55 are more rare than DA14, which in turn is more rare than the Chelyabinsk meteor. Because there are more DA14s filling interplanetary space than YU55s, a 50-foot asteroid can be found in a smaller volume of space, on average, and thus closer to Earth, than a 150-foot one.Now let's talk about coincidence. Mathematicians frame this issue in terms of probability – that is, the likelihood that something will happen. A rare thing is unlikely, so we say it has a low probability of occurring.
Two rare events happening at approximately the same time is much more unlikely. Here is how to think of it mathematically: If the events are not associated, the probability of this coincidence comes from multiplying the individual probabilities.
For example, the probability that your birthday is on a given date – say, January 1 – is 1/365. That is, of every 365 readers of this article, roughly one will have a birthday on January 1.
Five things to know about asteroids and meteors
Now, the probability that the next reader's birthday is also on January 1 is 1/365 times 1/365, or about 1 in 130,000. If that many people read the article, such a coincidence could happen. Of course, it's much more likely that two non-consecutive readers will have a birthday on January 1. And it's very likely that lots of readers have the same birthday as other readers. (In fact, in any group of 23 or more people, it is more than 50% likely that two will share a birthday, but calculating that probability is a bit more complicated.)
Back to the meteor and the asteroid. Both events happening within one day makes us think they could be connected. That instinct comes from doing the math – if it is improbable, then we think it cannot be a coincidence.
But the facts don't support this conclusion. First of all, in the time between the two events, the Earth moved roughly 300,000 miles, meaning the asteroid and the meteor were in completely different places. Moreover, they traveled in completely different directions, so they couldn't have been associated.
So there is no way the meteor and the asteroid are connected. It has to be a coincidence that the two events happened on the same day. Yet this would seem to be at odds with our instinct that two very rare things would not happen at the same time.
Russian scientists track down fragments of Urals meteor
How can we reconcile these two opposite thoughts: the impossibility of an association based on the physics of trajectories, and the improbability of coincidence (lack of association) that the math suggests?
The answer is that we need to rethink the probability calculation. If asteroids as big as DA14 pass close to Earth once every decade or two, and meteors as large as the Chelyabinsk one impact once every 100 years (a similar meteor having caused the Tunguska event in 1908), the chance of both events happening on any one day are indeed very small: 1 in 3,650 days times 1 in 36,500 days, or about 1 in 100 million – not odds you would bet against.
But think again: The Earth has been around for 4.5 billion years – which is 1.6 trillion days. So the chance that these two events would happen on a day sometime in the earth's history is actually larger than we first thought – it ought to have happened about 12,000 times already.
Of course, during most of that 4.5 billion year history, the earth was not populated by intelligent life – human beings who might have noticed the two events happening on the same day.
So what is the probability that the meteor hits and the asteroid passes Earth on the same day when someone could record it on video? That's probably been possible for about 50 years, or only about five years if we have to do it on a smartphone or dashboard camera. That's 1,825 days, which means the chance of someone filming the event is only about one in 70,000 – and that's if people blanketed the Earth. Given how sparsely the Earth is populated, we should correct this number downward by a (large!) geographical factor. It's also unlikely that this event would happen within 3,000 miles of the Tunguska impact.
What to think? Our rough calculation says a large meteor impact on the same day as closest passage of the DA14 asteroid is really improbable. But it did happen. Something in our assumptions could be wrong. For example, the frequency of meteor impacts could be much larger and our estimates too low because we don't notice most of them.
Then again, maybe sometimes, long odds just pay off.
Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion
Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Meg Urry.


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Image PSP_001377_2475 was taken by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft on November 11, 2006. The complete image is centered at 67.2 degrees latitude, 273.6 degrees East longitude. The range to the target site was 313.1 km (195.7 miles). At this distance the image scale is 31.3 cm/pixel (with 1 x 1 binning) so objects ~94 cm across are resolved. The image shown here has been map-projected to 25 cm/pixel. The image was taken at a local Mars time of 3:05 PM and the scene is illuminated from the west with a solar incidence angle of 58 degrees, thus the sun was about 32 degrees above the horizon. At a solar longitude of 133.9 degrees, the season on Mars is Northern Summer.
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project and built the spacecraft. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment is operated by the University of Arizona, Tucson, and the instrument was built by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corp., Boulder, Colo.


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Wednesday, November 17, 2010
In my photography post last week I talked about a little village called Russin which is situated in the largest wine-growing area in the Canton Geneva. Well once we had walked around it's streets, admired the pretty country houses and eaten our cold mini pizzas, we decided to hike (3kms one way - plan here) through the vineyards in the direction of another quaint yet slightly bigger place called Dardagny...
So, we strolled along a sinewy hill that led us down into a valley where the river Allondon flows peacefully towards the Rhône, went up a hill covered with steep fiery-red vineyards and headed for the idyllic Dardagny (pictures 4,5 & 6).
Dardagny is not only a village, but also a commune which is situated on a tiny hill at 495m above sea level and has about 1316 inhabitants. There, the vineyards are spread on harsh slopes, many different types of cereals grow on the plateaus and vast hardwoods spread till the foot of the Jura mountains.
One thing that is striking upon arriving in Dardagny is the amount of private wine cellars where you have the opportunity to buy and sample the local pruducts. Everywhere you turn your head there's either one cavern on your left or right! The wine tradition is so big in the region and many very good wines are produced there (Reds: Gamay, Pinot Noir, Cabernet Sauvignon, Gamaret, Zinfandel & Garanoir, all oaked or unoaked/Whites: Chasselas, Aligoté, Chardonnay, Gewurztraminer, Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Blanc & Viognier). After all Geneva is a canton that has about hundred wineries producing a range of high-quality wines (8-12 million litres of wine annually)...
Visit Robert's blog ("Lamiacucina", in German). He reviews some wine from Dardagny.
53 comments:
Beautiful landscape!ReplyDelete
Absolutely lovely Rosa. Dardagny would be a fabulous place to live.ReplyDelete
Beautiful pictures!! Love your blog.ReplyDelete
Fabulous! Nice wines and nice places bring us to heaven! And so do your magnificient picturesReplyDelete
Wow, how wonderful, Rosa. :-) I love that grassy road reaching up to the mountain. I would have to walk it like you did. :-)ReplyDelete
What a lovely place Rosa! Your pics are gorgeous!ReplyDelete
Seems to be the perfect place for my wine loving self! ;-) Beautiful pictures!ReplyDelete
I am in love with everything about this place.ReplyDelete
just what I've missed: the pictures to my winebottles from Dardagny !ReplyDelete
I remember seeing a lot of vineyards when we came to Switzerland. I wish I could visit it again.ReplyDelete
Toujours un plaisir de visiter avec toi..ReplyDelete
Bises. Marina
Oh my, what a beautiful area and gorgeous photos! Isn't fall just amazingReplyDelete
xo Eva
De jolies photos, un plaisir nouveau à chaque fois !ReplyDelete
Gorgeous photos of a gorgeous place. I love seeing your photos.ReplyDelete
Paz xoox
Beautiful place.ReplyDelete
Sorry for the note but your post reads:"So, we strolled alomg"
Have a great week ♥
oh Rosa, I am a fan of your photography! Pictures are just stunning.ReplyDelete
What a lovely, worthwhile destination for a walk.ReplyDelete
beautiful place to live!ReplyDelete
It must be wonderful going for walks in places like that with the snow on the mountains around. The private wine cellars sound amazing too. As always, your photos are a joy.ReplyDelete
Je suis toujours en admiration devant tes z'images ma belle Rosa. Merci pour ces partages xxReplyDelete
It must be a nice place to retire!ReplyDelete
C'est toujours un immense plaisir pour moi de voir tes belles photos ma chère Rosa. Merci:)ReplyDelete
Beautifully capture Rosa. Your photographs say it all.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous1:59 AM, November 18, 2010
Stunning township!ReplyDelete
Your pictures are so beautiful. I love looking at them.ReplyDelete
Just beautiful Rosa. Looking at these pictures makes me feel like I've gone on vacation. I feel refreshed and inspired :) thank you!ReplyDelete
Heidi xo
stunning captures..very beautiful place!ReplyDelete
US Masala
I wish I had that wine sign for my front door. ;)ReplyDelete
Tes photos soulèvent toujours ma nostalgie. Il y a bien longtemps maintenant que je ne suis pas allée dans ce coin.ReplyDelete
Merci Rosas pour ces jolies photos.ReplyDelete
girl, i'm officially moving to your homeland! You make it sexy, lovely and make me want to frolick all through out! :) hugs!ReplyDelete
Contrairement a Mamina, tes photos de cette region que j'aime me mettent toujours le sourire aux levres.ReplyDelete
This place is absolutely beauty, I love the pictures ! gloriaReplyDelete
What a lovely place to visit! I'd love to stroll the street and sample lots of wine.ReplyDelete
These are the perfect landscapes to promanade through. More walking for me would equal less guilt to enjoy more dessert ;o) LOLReplyDelete
Exquisite photography Rosa...it's like being right there by your side.
Ciao for now,
Fantastic photos Rosa!ReplyDelete
Beautiful village, Rosa. Have I ever told you that I want your life (smile)? Or to at least with there-that might be more practical;)ReplyDelete
Hi Rosa, What a Beautiful blog! Your pics are beyond stunning.Gorgeous scenery!ReplyDelete
Cheers, Aldy :)
If I could walk along these paths and gaze upon these vistas, I would walk all day! Stunning images. Rosa.ReplyDelete
Beautiful photos!ReplyDelete
très joli endroit que je decouvre la au travers de tes jolies photosReplyDelete
Very Beautiful!!!!ReplyDelete
Love this! And your blog, love it too. ;-)ReplyDelete
Your posts take me on wonderful journeys & I love that! The idea of those private wine cellars everywhere sounds like a true indulgence. Gorgeous photography.ReplyDelete
Charming photos, Rosa! I love the one with flower-laden balcony. You have such an artistic eye. Sounds like a lovely area to visit..wine country is such a delight.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous3:10 PM, November 19, 2010
Wow, beautiful views and good wine, what could be better!ReplyDelete
Beautiful shots, felt like a mini staycation perusing them!ReplyDelete
What a charming village, and breathtaking vistas!ReplyDelete
Oh, I could live there.
MARK: Thanks for passing by and for the kind comment!ReplyDelete
Une jolie visite..ReplyDelete
J'adore tes photos et en particulier celle avec le monument blanc et la porte marron! :)
Bise & Bonne soirée
Absolutely stunning pics u have here!!ReplyDelete
Very beautiful!!
Thanks for sharing the beautiful wine tour!ReplyDelete
Bliss, looks simply amazing, what a wonderful way to while away an afternoon. So relaxing and so beautiful.ReplyDelete


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Rule #1 - Be Patient - Rule #2 - Don't ask when, if you don't contribute - Rule #3 - You have coding skills - LinuxMCE's small brother is available: http://www.agocontrol.com
well that's a disappointment...based on the topic I was hoping that this would be about a cool new open-source warship...
I always keep Linux destroyers in my fleet, even after I get Linux battleships. Their attack and bombard stats aren't as high as the Linux battleships, but they are useful for spotting the enemy Windows submarines.The best is when you first get Linux destroyers and you can go around taunting all the Windows ironclads and fishing boats, not to mention whooping up on the Windows caravels.
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as if it matters, since everyone else has scaled you samb..whatever..but you whine and complain about the authors of linuxmce not being good developers or professional.... you are a hipacrit... you know what? simple...you didn't install linuxmce in a test environment first, which everyone in the development community knows is "best practice". even I myself, my first time, used an old ass pc i had lying around before installing it on my main pc, and i'm an amateur... what an idiot...besides... everytime i've installed any kind of operating system, i've played with the jasOS (macos X for intel/amd), all sorts of flavors of linux, and of course windows xp, and windows vista....each time I proceed with the installation, i stop and ask myself "how is this going to partition my drive... is it going to make assumptions, or will it ask me... hmm maybe i should read the instructions first, maybe do a few searches in the forums... yeah i'll do my research first"


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