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Early signs point to bigger crowds at the nation's malls and stores as retailers like Target and Macy's opened their doors at midnight on the most anticipated shopping day of the year and a few others opened on Thanksgiving Day. Shoppers were mostly peaceful across the country, but a few violent incidents broke out as millions of shoppers rushed into stores and tensions flared.
It started on Thanksgiving, when Los Angeles authorities say 20 people at a local Walmart store suffered minor injuries when a woman used pepper spray to gain a "competitive" shopping advantage shortly after the store opened.
Then, early Friday in Fayetteville, N.C., gunfire erupted at Cross Creek Mall and police say they're looking for the two suspects involved. Separately, police say two women have been injured and a man charged after a fight broke out at an upstate New York Walmart. And a central Florida man is behind bars after a fight broke out at a jewelry counter in Walmart in Kissimmee, Fla.
Later Friday morning, a Phoenix television station KSAZ reported that witnesses say police slammed a grandfather in a Walmart in Buckeye, Ariz., to the ground after he allegedly put a game in his waistband so that he could lift his grandson out of the crowd.
The incidents are the result of two converging trends on Black Friday. The crowds continue to get bigger as retailers offer more incentives and longer hours. At the same time, shoppers are competing for a small group of products, instead of years past when there were several hot items from which they could choose.
"The more the people, the more the occurrences," says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst with market research firm The NPD Group.
Indeed, a record number of shoppers are expected to head out to stores across the country this weekend to take advantage of discounts of up to 70 percent. For three days starting on Black Friday, 152 million people are expected shop, up about 10 percent from last year, according to the National Retail Federation.
"I came here for the deals," said Sidiki Traore, 59, from Roosevelt Island, N.Y. who was among about 10,000 people who were standing outside of Macy's store in New York's Herald Square for its midnight opening.
The crowds are good news for retailers, many of which depend on the busy holiday shopping season for up to 40 percent of their annual revenue. To draw in shoppers this year, they pulled out of their bag of tricks. In addition to several retailers opening much earlier than previous years, some began offering to match the prices of competitors and rolling out layaway programs.
Shoppers on Friday, though, say they mostly are being lured into stores by the deals, including discounts of 20 to 60 percent on many items at The Gap and a $400 Asus Transformer 10-inch tablet computer for $249.99 at Best Buy.
After showing up at Best Buy in New York on Wednesday at 3 p.m., Emmanuel Merced, 27, and his brother were the first in line when it opened. On their list was a Sharp 42-inch TV for $199, a PlayStation 3 console with games for $199.99 and wireless headphones for $30. Merced says he likes camping out for Black Friday and he figures he saved 50 percent.
"I like the experience of it," says Merced, who plans to spend $3,000 to $4,000 on gifts this season.
To be sure, not every store was filled to the brim with people looking for deals on Black Friday. With so many major stores opening at midnight, crowds shopped early, staying up late to snag the best deals. That meant there was an unusual lull during the typically bustling pre-dawn hours when stores used to open their doors.
At a Target on Chicago's north side, for instance, crowds were light four hours after the store opened. And door-buster deals, including the typically quick-to-sell out TVs and gaming systems, remained piled up in their boxes. Shoppers pushed carts through mostly empty aisles while thumbing through circulars and employees - some in Santa hats - roamed the store. There was no Christmas music - or any music - playing.
Rebecca Carter, a graduate assistant, began Black Friday shopping at 11 p.m. on Thursday night and left Target around 4 a.m. carrying a bag full of pillows. Carter, who prowls Black Friday deals every year, said crowds were noticeably lighter this year as she and a friend picked up a television set ($180 for a 32-inch TV) and a laptop for $198, along with toys and pajamas.
"It's quiet," she says. "There were all these televisions still there. It was shocking."
It was the first year that Melody Snyder, 34 of Vancouver, Wash. had ventured out for Black Friday. She had braced herself for crowds and mayhem when she got to Walmart at 6 a.m. but was pleasantly surprised when she pulled in the parking lot. She found a number of gifts for her three kids but said she did find the store was sold out of a few of the big sale items, including certain Barbies and other toys she'd considered.
"It was a little intimidating," she said. "Then I got here and thought `Where is everyone?"'
David Bassuk, managing director of retail at AlixPartners, a consultancy, says retailers are going to have to do a lot of discounting during the holiday shopping season to keep customers coming back.
"Consumers have made it clear that they're only going to spend so much money, and the people who are going to get them to open their wallet first are going to win," he says. "This is a consumer who is smart and well informed but also cash-strapped and cautious."
Retail writers Mae Anderson and Anne D'Innocenzio are in New York. Sarah Skidmore in Vancouver, Wash., Christina Rexrode in Cary, N.C., Ashley Heher in Chicago and Tamara Lush in St. Petersburg, Fla., contributed to this report.


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Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow (1979), Lecture 5 (1958)
(This is a speech by the late Dr. Ludwig von Mises given in Argentina)
Some people call the programs of economic freedom a negative program. They say, "What do you liberals really want? You are against socialism, government intervention, inflation, labor union violence, protective tariffs.… You say no to everything."
I would call this statement a one-sided and shallow formulation of the problem. For it is possible to formulate a liberal program in a positive way. If a man says, "I am against censorship," he is not negative; he is in favor of authors having the right to determine what they want to publish without the interference of government. This is not negativism, this is precisely freedom. (Of course, when I use the term "liberal" with respect to the conditions of the economic system, I mean liberal in the old classical sense of the word.)
Today, most people regard the considerable differences in the standard of living between many countries as unsatisfactory. Two hundred years ago, conditions in Great Britain were much worse than they are today in India. But the British in 1750 did not call themselves "undeveloped" or "backward," because they were not in a position to compare the conditions of their country with those of countries in which economic conditions were more satisfactory. Today all people who have not attained the average standard of living of the United States believe that there is something wrong with their own economic situation. Many of these countries call themselves "developing countries" and, as such, are asking for aid from the so-called developed or even overdeveloped countries.
Let me explain the reality of this situation. The standard of living is lower in the so-called developing countries because the average earnings for the same type of labor is lower in those countries than it is in some countries of Western Europe, Canada, Japan, and especially in the United States. If we try to find the reasons for this difference, we must realize that it is not due to an inferiority of the workers or other employees. There prevails among some groups of North American workers a tendency to believe that they themselves are better than other people — that it is through their own merit that they are getting higher wages than other people.
It would only be necessary for an American worker to visit another country — let us say, Italy, where many American workers came from — in order to discover that it is not his personal qualities but the conditions in the country that make it possible for him to earn higher wages. If a man from Sicily immigrates to the United States, he can very soon earn the wage rates that are customary in the United States. And if the same man returns to Sicily, he will discover that his visit to the United States did not give him qualities which would permit him to earn higher wages in Sicily than his fellow countrymen.
Nor can one explain this economic situation by assuming any inferiority on the part of the entrepreneurs outside the United States. It is a fact that outside of the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and certain parts of Asia the equipment of the factories and the technological methods employed are, by and large, inferior to those within the United States. But this is not due to the ignorance of the entrepreneurs in those "undeveloped" countries. They know very well that the factories in the United States and Canada are much better equipped. They themselves know everything they must know about technology, and if they do not, they have the opportunity to learn what they must know from textbooks and technical magazines which disseminate this knowledge.
Once again: the difference is not personal inferiority or ignorance. The difference is the supply of capital, the quantity of capital goods available. In other words, the amount of capital invested per unit of the population is greater in the so-called advanced nations than in the developing nations.
A businessman cannot pay a worker more than the amount added by the work of this employee to the value of the product. He cannot pay him more than the customers are prepared to pay for the additional work of this individual worker. If he pays him more, he will not recover his expenditures from the customers. He incurs losses and, as I have pointed out again and again, and as everybody knows, a businessman who suffers losses must change his methods of business, or go bankrupt.
The economists describe this state of affairs by saying "wages are determined by the marginal productivity of labor." This is only another expression for what I have just said before. It is a fact that the scale of wages is determined by the amount a man's work increases the value of the product. If a man works with better and more efficient tools, then he can perform in one hour much more than a man who works one hour with less efficient instruments. It is obvious that 100 men working in an American shoe factory, equipped with the most modern tools and machines, produce much more in the same length of time than 100 shoemakers in India, who have to work with old-fashioned tools in a less sophisticated way.
The employers in all of these developing nations know very well that better tools would make their own enterprises more profitable. They would like to build more and better factories. The only thing that prevents them from doing it is the shortage of capital. The difference between the less developed and the more developed nations is a function of time: the British started to save sooner than all other nations: they also started sooner to accumulate capital and to invest it in business. Because they started sooner, there was a higher standard of living in Great Britain when, in all other European countries, there was still a lower standard of living. Gradually, all the other nations began to study British conditions, and it was not difficult for them to discover the reason for Great Britain's wealth. So they began to imitate the methods of British business.
Since other nations started later, and since the British did not stop investing capital, there remained a large difference between conditions in England and conditions in those other countries. But something happened which caused the head start of Great Britain to disappear.
What happened was the greatest event in the history of the nineteenth century, and this means not only in the history of an individual country. This great event was the development, in the nineteenth century, of foreign investment. In 1817, the great British economist Ricardo still took it for granted that capital could be invested only within the borders of a country. He took it for granted that capitalists would not try to invest abroad. But a few decades later, capital investment abroad began to play a most important role in world affairs.
Without capital investment it would have been necessary for nations less developed than Great Britain to start with the methods and the technology with which the British had started in the beginning and middle of the eighteenth century, and slowly, step by step — always far below the technological level of the British economy — try to imitate what the British had done.
It would have taken many, many decades for these countries to attain the standard of technological development which Great Britain had reached a hundred years or more before them. But the great event that helped all these countries was foreign investment.
Foreign investment meant that British capitalists invested British capital in other parts of the world. They first invested it in those European countries which, from the point of view of Great Britain, were short of capital and backward in their development. It is a well-known fact that the railroads of most European countries, and also of the United States, were built with the aid of British capital. You know that the same happened in this country, in Argentina.
The gas companies in all the cities of Europe were also British. In the mid 1870s, a British author and poet criticized his countrymen. He said, "The British have lost their old vigor and they have no longer any new ideas. They are no longer an important or leading nation in the world." To which Herbert Spencer, the great sociologist, answered, "Look at the European continent. All European capitals have light because a British gas company provides them with gas." This was, of course, in what seems to us the "remote" age of gas lighting. Further answering this British critic, Herbert Spencer added, "You say that the Germans are far ahead of Great Britain. But look at Germany. Even Berlin, the capital of the German Reich, the capital of Geist, would be in the dark if a British gas company had not invaded the country and lighted the streets."
In the same way, British capital developed the railroads and many branches of industry in the United States. And, of course, as long as a country imports capital its balance of trade is what the non-economists call "unfavorable." That means that it has an excess of imports over exports. The reason for the "favorable balance of trade" of Great Britain was that the British factories sent many types of equipment to the United States, and this equipment was not paid for by anything other than shares of American corporations. This period in the history of the United States lasted, by and large, until the 1890s.
But when the United States, with the aid of British capital — and later with the aid of its own pro-capitalistic policies — developed its own economic system in an unprecedented way, the Americans began to buy back the capital stocks they had once sold to foreigners. Then the United States had a surplus of exports over imports. The difference was paid by the importation — by the repatriation, as one called it — of American common stock.
This period lasted until the First World War. What happened later is another story. It is the story of the American subsidies for the belligerent countries in between and after two world wars: the loans, the investments the United States made in Europe, in addition to lend-lease, foreign aid, the Marshall Plan, food that was sent overseas, and other subsidies. I emphasize this because people sometimes believe that it is shameful or degrading to have foreign capital working in their country. You have to realize that, in all countries except England, foreign capital investment played a considerable part in the development of modern industries.
If I say that foreign investment was the greatest historical event of the nineteenth century, you must think of all those things that would not have come into being if there had not been any foreign investment. All the railroads, the harbors, the factories and mines in Asia, and the Suez Canal and many other things in the Western hemisphere, would not have been constructed had there been no foreign investment.
Foreign investment is made in the expectation that it will not be expropriated. Nobody would invest anything if he knew in advance that somebody would expropriate his investments. At the time when these foreign investments were made in the nineteenth century, and at the beginning of the twentieth century, there was no question of expropriation. From the beginning, some countries showed a certain hostility toward foreign capital, but for the most part they realized very well that they derived an enormous advantage from these foreign investments.
In some cases, these foreign investments were not made directly to foreign capitalists, but indirectly by loans to the foreign government. Then it was the government that used the money for investments. Such was, for instance, the case in Russia. For purely political reasons, the French invested in Russia, in the two decades preceding the First World War, about twenty billion gold francs, lending them chiefly to the Russian government. All the great enterprises of the Russian government — for instance, the railroad that connects Russia from the Ural Mountains, through the ice and snow of Siberia, to the Pacific — were built mostly with foreign capital lent to the Russian government. You will realize that the French did not assume that one day there would be a communist Russian government that would simply declare it would not pay the debts incurred by its predecessor, the tsarist government.
Starting with the First World War, there began a period of worldwide open warfare against foreign investments. Since there is no remedy to prevent a government from expropriating invested capital, there is practically no legal protection for foreign investments in the world today. The capitalists did not foresee this. If the capitalists of the capital exporting countries had realized it, all foreign investments would have come to an end forty or fifty years ago. But the capitalists did not believe that any country would be so unethical as to renege on a debt, to expropriate and confiscate foreign capital. With these acts, a new chapter began in the economic history of the world.
With the end of the great period in the nineteenth century when foreign capital helped to develop, in all parts of the world, modern methods of transportation, manufacturing, mining, and agriculture, there came a new era in which the governments and the political parties considered the foreign investor as an exploiter who should be expelled from the country.
In this anti-capitalist attitude the Russians were not the only sinners. Remember, for example, the expropriation of the American oil fields in Mexico, and all the things that have happened in this country (Argentina) which I have no need to discuss.
The situation in the world today, created by the system of expropriation of foreign capital, consists either of direct expropriation or of indirect expropriation through foreign exchange control or tax discrimination. This is mainly a problem of developing nations.
Take, for instance, the biggest of these nations: India. Under the British system, British capital — predominately British capital, but also capital of other European countries — was invested in India. And the British exported to India something else which also has to be mentioned in this connection; they exported into India modern methods of fighting contagious diseases. The result was a tremendous increase in the Indian population and a corresponding increase in the country's troubles. Facing such a worsening situation, India turned to expropriation as a means of dealing with its problems. But it was not always direct expropriation; the government harassed foreign capitalists, hampering them in their investments in such a way that these foreign investors were forced to sell out.
India could, of course, accumulate capital by another method: the domestic accumulation of capital. However, India is as hostile to the domestic accumulation of capital as it is to foreign capitalists. The Indian government says it wants to industrialize India, but what it really has in mind is to have socialist enterprises.
A few years ago the famous statesman Jawaharlal Nehru published a collection of his speeches. The book was published with the intention of making foreign investment in India more attractive. The Indian government is not opposed to foreign investment before it is invested. The hostility begins only when it is already invested. In this book — I am quoting literally from the book — Mr. Nehru said, "Of course, we want to socialize. But we are not opposed to private enterprise. We want to encourage in every way private enterprise. We want to promise the entrepreneurs who invest in our country, that we will not expropriate them nor socialize them for ten years, perhaps even for a longer time." And he thought this was an invitation to come to India!
The problem — as you know — is domestic capital accumulation. In all countries today there are very heavy taxes on corporations. In fact, there is double taxation on corporations. First, the profits of corporations are taxed very heavily, and the dividends which corporations pay to their shareholders are taxed again. And this is done in a progressive way.
Progressive taxation of income and profits means that precisely those parts of the income which people would have saved and invested are taxed away. Take the example of the United States. A few years ago, there was an "excess profit" tax, which meant that out of one dollar earned, a corporation retained only 18 cents. When these 18 cents were paid out to the shareholders, those who had a great number of shares had to pay another sixty or eighty or even greater percent of it in taxes. Out of the dollar of profit they retained about 7 cents, and 93 cents went to the government. Of this 93 percent, the greater part would have been saved and invested. Instead, the government used it for current expenditure. This is the policy of the United States.
I think I have made it clear that the policy of the United States is not an example to be imitated by other countries. This policy of the United States is worse than bad — it is insane. The only thing I would add is that a rich country can afford more bad policies than a poor country. In the United States, in spite of all these methods of taxation, there is still some additional accumulation of capital and investment every year, and therefore there is still a trend toward an improvement of the standard of living.
But in many other countries the problem is very critical. There is no — or not sufficient — domestic saving, and capital investment from abroad is seriously reduced by the fact that these countries are openly hostile to foreign investment. How can they talk about industrialization, about the necessity to develop new plants, to improve conditions, to raise the standard of living, to have higher wage rates, better means of transportation, if they are doing things that will have precisely the opposite effect? What their policies actually accomplish is to prevent or to slow down the accumulation of domestic capital and to put obstacles in the way of foreign capital.
The end result is certainly very bad. Such a situation must bring about a loss of confidence, and there is now more and more distrust of foreign investment in the world. Even if the countries concerned were to change their policies immediately and were to make all possible promises, it is very doubtful that they could once more inspire foreign capitalists to invest.
There are, of course, some methods to avoid this consequence. One could establish some international statutes, not only agreements, that would withdraw the foreign investments from national jurisdiction. This is something the United Nations could do. But the United Nations is simply a meeting place for useless discussions. Realizing the enormous importance of foreign investment, realizing that foreign investment alone can bring about an improvement in political and economical world conditions, one could try to do something from the point of view of international legislation.
This is a technical legal problem, which I only mention, because the situation is not hopeless. If the world really wanted to make it possible for the developing countries to raise their standard of living to the level of the American way of life, then it could be done. It is only necessary to realize how it could be done.
What is lacking in order to make the developing countries as prosperous as the United States is only one thing: capital — and, of course, the freedom to employ it under the discipline of the market and not the discipline of the government. These nations must accumulate domestic capital, and they must make it possible for foreign capital to come into their countries.
For the development of domestic saving it is necessary to mention again that domestic saving by the masses of the population presupposes a stable monetary unit. This implies the absence of any kind of inflation.
A great part of the capital at work in American enterprises is owned by the workers themselves and by other people with modest means. Billions and billions of saving deposits, of bonds, and of insurance policies are operating in these enterprises. On the American money market today it is no longer the banks, it is the insurance companies that are the greatest money lenders. And the money of the insurance company is — not legally, but economically — the property of the insured. And practically everybody in the United States is insured in one way or another.
The prerequisite for more economic equality in the world is industrialization. And this is possible only through increased capital investment, increased capital accumulation. You may be astonished that I have not mentioned a measure which is considered a prime method to industrialize a country. I mean protectionism. But tariffs and foreign exchange controls are exactly the means to prevent the importation of capital and industrialization into the country. The only way to increase industrialization is to have more capital. Protectionism can only divert investments from one branch of business to another branch.
Protectionism, in itself, does not add anything to the capital of a country. To start a new factory one needs capital. To improve an already existing factory one needs capital, and not a tariff.
I do not want to discuss the whole problem of free trade or protectionism. I hope that most of your textbooks on economics represent it in a proper way. Protection does not change the economic situation in a country for the better. And what certainly does not change it for the better is labor unionism. If conditions are unsatisfactory, if wages are low, if the wage earner in a country looks to the United States and reads about what is going on there, if he sees in the movies how the home of an average American is equipped with all modern comforts, he may be envious. He is perfectly right in saying, "We ought to have the same thing." But the only way to obtain it is through an increase in capital.
Labor unions use violence against entrepreneurs and against people they call strikebreakers. Despite their power and their violence, however, unions cannot raise wages continually for all wage earners. Equally ineffective are government decrees fixing minimum wage rates. What the unions do bring about (if they succeed in raising wage rates) is permanent, lasting unemployment.
But unions cannot industrialize the country, they cannot raise the standard of living of the workers. And this is the decisive point: One must realize that all the policies of a country that wants to improve its standard of living must be directed toward an increase in the capital invested per capital. This per capita investment of capital is still increasing in the United States, in spite of all of the bad policies there. And the same is true in Canada and in some of the West European countries. But it is unfortunately decreasing in countries like India.
We read every day in the newspapers that the population of the world is becoming greater, by perhaps 45 million people — or even more — per year. And how will this end? What will the results and the consequences be? Remember what I said about Great Britain. In 1750 the British people believed that six million constituted a tremendous overpopulation of the British Isles and that they were headed for famines and plagues. But on the eve of the last world war, in 1939, fifty million people were living in the British Isles, and the standard of living was incomparably higher than it had been in 1750. This was the effect of what is called industrialization — a rather inadequate term.
Britain's progress was brought about by increasing the per capita investment of capital. As I said before, there is only one way a nation can achieve prosperity: if you increase capital, you increase the marginal productivity of labor, and the effect will be that real wages will rise.
In a world without migration barriers, there would be a tendency all over the world toward an equalization of wage rates. If there were no migration barriers today, probably twenty million people would try to reach the United States every year, in order to get higher wages. The inflow would reduce wages in the United States, and raise them in other countries.
I do not have time to deal with this problem of migration barriers. But I do want to say that there is another method toward the equalization of wage rates all over the world. This other method, which operates in the absence of the freedom to migrate, is the migration of capital. Capitalists have the tendency to move towards those countries in which there is plenty of labor available and in which labor is reasonable. And by the fact that they bring capital into these countries, they bring about a trend toward higher wage rates. This has worked in the past, and it will work in the future, in the same way.
When British capital was first invested in, let us say, Austria or Bolivia, wage rates there were much, much lower than they were in Great Britain. But this additional investment brought about a trend toward higher wage rates in those countries. And such a tendency prevailed all over the world. It is a very well-known fact that as soon as, for instance, the United Fruit Company moved into Guatemala, the result was a general tendency toward higher wage rates, beginning with the wages which United Fruit Company paid, which then made it necessary for other employers to pay higher wages also. Therefore, there is no reason at all to be pessimistic in regard to the future of "undeveloped" countries.
I fully agree with the Communists and the labor unions, when they say, "What is needed is to raise the standard of living." A short time ago, in a book published in the United States, a professor said, "We now have enough of everything, why should people in the world still work so hard? We have everything already." I do not doubt that this professor has everything. But there are other people in other countries, also many people in the United States, who want and should have a better standard of living.
Outside of the United States — in Latin America, and still more in Asia and Africa — everyone wishes to see conditions improved in his own country. A higher standard of living also brings about a higher standard of culture and civilization.
So I fully agree with the ultimate goal of raising the standard of living everywhere. But I disagree about the measures to be adopted in attaining this goal. What measures will attain this end? Not protection, not government interference, not socialism, and certainly not the violence of the labor unions (euphemistically called collective bargaining, which, in fact, is bargaining at the point of a gun).
To attain the end, as I see it, there is only one way! It is a slow method. Some people may say, it is too slow. But there are no short cuts to an earthly paradise. It takes time, and one has to work. But it does not take as much time as people believe, and finally an equalization will come.
* * *
Ludwig von Mises was the acknowledged leader of the Austrian School of economic thought, a prodigious originator in economic theory, and a prolific author.
Mises's writings and lectures encompassed economic theory, history, epistemology, government, and political philosophy.
His contributions to economic theory include important clarifications on the quantity theory of money, the theory of the trade cycle, the integration of monetary theory with economic theory in general, and a demonstration that socialism must fail because it cannot solve the problem of economic calculation. Mises was the first scholar to recognize that economics is part of a larger science in human action, a science that Mises called "praxeology."

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Nicola Morgan, the Crabbit Old Bat, is a multi-award-winning author of over 100 books across many genres. In this blog, she gives crabbitly honest advice to determined writers, and in her books, WRITE TO BE PUBLISHED, WRITE A GREAT SYNOPSIS, DEAR AGENT and TWEET RIGHT.
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
The woman in the story was a DW not because she thought her idea had come as a gift from above. Brahms also described the advent of an idea in those terms. But Brahms then said that "by sheer hard work I make it my own." (Except that he said it in German.)
The main reason she was a DW is because she was under the delusion that having an idea from above and then writing a novel was enough. She believed that publication was owed to her because she thought her book was good. She would not accept that it was not good enough in some way; would not accept that a hundred publishers had made a valid decision and that this should tell her something. I'm not saying she couldn't write - I haven't a clue, not having had the pleasure of reading her book. I'm saying she was not doing the right things, asking the right questions, opening her mind to the possibility that her book lacked something that might make it worth publishing. She was not prepared to work hard.
So, my definition of a DW goes like this: a delusional wannabe is someone who desperately wants to be published, falls sadly short in either ability or a publishable idea or both, AND is not prepared to work as hard as possible to find out exactly how and why she falls short in one or both of those things. A DW will never be successfully published. A DW will usually not write another book, because writing another book when your first hasn't been published is hard, very hard. But it makes all the difference between delusion and determination.
You, by virtue of the fact that you are here, that you keep coming back, that you agree with me (very important) and that you will do anything in your power to make your writing work better, are not DWs. Hooray!
That's the good news. The bad news, I'm afraid, is that NOT being a DW is not a guarantee that you will be published. But it's a very good start and underpins the whole philosophy of this blog. I try to unpick delusions and show you sensible ways to achieve your dreams. So, carry on letting your ideas comes as gifts from above, but remember that it's the sheer hard work afterwards that makes you a writer.
20 comments:
- Ebony McKenna. said...
I think I saw two of these on X factor.
- 7 September 2010 at 11:41
- David John Griffin said...
There's a difference between being a delusional wannabe and having confidence and hope, of course. THe worst one is when the writer considers they are "the best thing since sliced bread" when in fact, if they did get published, they would be a small fish in a very big (and old) pond.
Talking about hard work, I think I've worked very hard (and still working) on my second novel to get it right. (I think, I really think, that this time is the last time, though). What I'm hoping though, is as I gain experience as a writer, although future novels will involve a lot of work, including multiple edits, it won't be quite as much work as the ones before.
But there must be a floor to that; I mean there's always hard work, no matter how experienced an author is.
Thank you for these posts; for me, it's given me more confidence, strangely!
- 7 September 2010 at 11:48
- Kittie Howard said...
I think a DW lacks the confidence needed to make necessary changes to move her life forward, not just the book.
- 7 September 2010 at 12:40
- Sarah Callejo said...
I wonder who's happier though, the delusional writer who "knows" she's the best and everyone else is wrong, or us realists who know all the hard work we've got ahead to get somewhere.
- 7 September 2010 at 15:18
DWs are the direct result from this new notion that mediocre is good enough, that we can't be too critical lest we damage someone's fragile ego and send them directly to therapy, and that anything we want, we should get it now - regardless of talent.
With the vast numbers of writers turning to vanity and POD publishing options, this instant gratification society is slowly leeching out the idea of hard work and excellence.
And lots of vanity and PODs are making a killing off their mediocrity. Sad.
- 7 September 2010 at 15:43
- Lauri said...
@Kittie-it is fine if it is lack of confidence, but the WORST DW is the one who is all confidence. Best to just walk away.
@behlerblog- and on to that the idea that hard work is not needed. Crappola.
I just signed contracts for books 13 and 14 and I live ONLY on my writing income. It is not because I am a brilliant poke-your-eyes-out-with-a-stick writer- I work hard. Damn hard. I get so tired of DW who just don't have any elbow grease. BLAH!
- 7 September 2010 at 17:56
- Jill said...
Nicely put. I like that--that the inspiration may come from above, but its never handed out on a silver platter in perfection. We still have to do the hard work to make it a reality.
- 7 September 2010 at 18:17
- Jayne said...
Well said, Nicola! And happy anniversary. :)
- 7 September 2010 at 19:52
- Beleaguered Squirrel said...
Great post. I agree.
behlerblog: "And lots of vanity and PODs are making a killing off their mediocrity. Sad."
Not sure where you're getting this from, but it's not true. Most vanity and PODs - and self-published authors, which can include the former, but don't have to - make a loss. Even those with decent products tend to make a loss. The only ones who earn money from it are those who have something genuinely publishable, albeit niche. Or those who have an awful lot of rich, tolerant and generous friends and relatives.
You've still got a point about the instant gratification thing though. Although I wonder whether a lot of publishers are delighted with the ubiquity of vanity publishing, as it lessens the stream of dross through their letter-boxes!
(I wonder if it does? Would be very hard to find out).
- 8 September 2010 at 00:12
- CC MacKenzie said...
Happy Anniversary Nicola, may you have many more.
Great post as usual and so true. Perhaps you could do a post on people who are very talented but don't believe themselves to be.
Just read a first draft by one of my critique partners and I didn't get to sleep until 4.00am because it was so good I couldn't put it down! The task now is to persuade her to keep working on it, polish and submit.
It's not easy this writing game is it?
- 8 September 2010 at 01:00
- Christine Fonseca said...
Great post! And BTW, I left something for you on my blog...http://christinefonseca.wordpress.com/
- 8 September 2010 at 13:22
- Nicola Slade said...
Great post. I've lost count of the people who say they wouldn't let an editor alter their work. Sigh.
I'm halfway through my 10th full-length novel: Book 7 was the one that got accepted first, followed by Book 8, then Book 10. Book 4 comes out next year, after a major rewrite and bringing up-to-date & I'm going to take another look at Book 3. (Books 1 & 2 must stay hidden in a deep, dark, dingey drawer!) It takes hard work, persistence, pigheadedness and a willingness to listen and learn. That's only part of it...
- 8 September 2010 at 17:04
- Nicola Slade said...
Duh, can't count. I meant Book 9 got published, not Book 10: I'm still writing that one!
- 8 September 2010 at 17:07
- Julia Crouch said...
@Nicola Slade: So glad you made a mistake. I was worrying about what had happened to book 9 that made you give up on it...
- 8 September 2010 at 17:23
- Jane Smith said...
Beleaguered Squirrel wrote,
"Not sure where you're getting this from, but it's not true. Most vanity and PODs - and self-published authors, which can include the former, but don't have to - make a loss."
I understand your point, but you've got it a bit wrong: most of the authors who publish with vanity publishers and POD publishers make a loss; but the vanity and POD publishers themselves, who put those authors into print, are making a packet. It's not nice at all.
Thanks, Mrs Morgan, for another excellent post.
- 8 September 2010 at 17:25
- Nicola Morgan said...
thanks, all. In haste but thanks to Jane for coming along and saying what I couldn't say as was on trains and in events all day and making comments on a blog post is very difficult on a phone. Yes, the authors don't make the money on those things - it's the vanity and POD companies that Lynn (behlerblog) meant. Very rarely does an author make much on those systems as they are geared to making money from the author not for the author. Genuine self-publishing, ie by the author for the author, can work when it works and when the author has written the right book and sells it in the right way. And then I take my hat off to them!
- 8 September 2010 at 20:10
- bookfraud said...
excellent, excellent post. i think you looked up my bio when writing the definition of "delusional wannabe."
not to turn the discussion to the abstract, but you reminded me of a discussion i had with a writing teacher a long time ago. i was discussing wanting to get my work published, how i'd like to be a "man of letters" and other pretentious b.s., when he interrupted me and said, "do you want to be a 'writer,' or do you want to do the things that writers do?" then proceeded to tell me that all that really matters is the work itself, both the noun and verb.
publishing is important, and is worthy of great effort and persistence, but since my discussion with my writing teacher i've seen many writers who only care about getting published, and therein lies their doom. as you note, they write one thing, fail at publishing, and give up--they don't love the process of writing enough.
just my thoughts.
- 9 September 2010 at 15:58
- Sally Zigmond said...
I was a DW once. I think we all were. The difference between a persistent DW and a 'serious' writer (ie serious about being published) is that the latter listens to and learns from those, like you, Nicola, who actually know what they're talking about. DWs either don't listen to anyone because they know it all already or they only listen to other DWs. I've met far too many of both--and been insulted for my pains.
- 10 September 2010 at 17:16
- Jo Franklin said...
Whenever I stop by here, I find your words inspirational and supportive, Nicola. I've often wondered if I am a DW but your definition reassures me.
In every writing community I belong to, there is a mixture of the Good, the Bad and the Mad. I'm sure there have been times when I have qualified for all three but hopefully I vere towards the Good more often these days. Unless I'm deluding myself of course.
- 13 September 2010 at 14:45
OK, now you have to tell me which work Brahms was referring to when he made that quote. I must possess that piece of music as soon as possible. Please tell me what to download.
If you don't know, it's okay to just pick your favorite thing by Brahms ... after all, it helped inspire your latest blog post.
Failing that, just make something up.
- 13 September 2010 at 15:13


text:
Vancouver, Monday, January 28, 2013 — The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for British Columbia has submitted its report redrawing the province's federal electoral map to the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. The report was tabled in the House of Commons today.
British Columbia is gaining six electoral districts as a result of the increase in its population. Nearly two thirds of the province's electoral districts are located in the Lower Mainland region, and five new electoral districts will be added there. The Vancouver Island region gains one new electoral district, while the 36 existing districts are reconfigured. The report follows the public hearings that took place across the province between September 10 and October 18, 2012.
"The final configuration of electoral districts throughout British Columbia has been greatly influenced by submissions and presentations from the public. While it is not possible to satisfy everyone, the commission believes its final report provides for effective representation in all 42 electoral districts," said the Honourable John E. Hall, chair of the three-member commission.
To consult the report, visit www.federal-redistribution.ca.
Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for British Columbia
1095 West Pender Street, Suite 301
Vancouver, British Columbia
Tel.: 1-855-747-7236 (toll-free)
Fax: 1-855-747-7237 (toll-free)
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text:
Atrogel® Arnica gel 50 or 100ml Herbal remedy used for pain relief in stiff muscles and joints... Arnica gel is not just for bruising!Code 5005 100ml / 5012 50ml Available stock: 0
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Arnica is familiar to many people as a treatment for bruises. However, did you know that Arnica, used as a herbal remedy, can be used to relieve pain? Arnica, together with echinacea, must be amongst the herbal products you should have in your home.
Atrogel® is a herbal remedy made from extracts of fresh Arnica flowers and is an easy-to-apply non-greasy gel. It is ideal if you are looking for a treatment to relieve pain in conditions such as muscle aches or pains, stiffness or after sporting injuries. It can be used up to 4 times a day.
Atrogel® Arnica gelA traditional herbal medicinal product used for the symptomatic relief of muscular aches, pains and stiffness, sprains and bruising, exclusively based upon long-standing use as a traditional remedy. Always read the leaflet.Dosage of Atrogel® Arnica gel.
Atrogel® Arnica gel may be used to relieve pain and bruising in adults, children and the elderly. Apply 2 to 10 cm of the gel gently to the affected area. Use between 2 and 4 times daily for pain relief.
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Use within 5 months of opening.
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1. I thought that arnica was only for use in bruises or when bruising occurs?Arnica has a long history of use as a bruise treatment and this has been its most popular use in the past, when taken in the form of homeopathic arnica tablets. In the form of a gel obtained from freshly harvested herbs, as with Atrogel®, arnica has a traditional use for the relief of pain.
2. So can I use Atrogel® Arnica gel for bruises?Yes, arnica herb can also be used externally as a treatment for bruises. Atrogel® contains extracts of freshly picked arnica flowers, is licensed as a herbal remedy for bruising, as well as the relief of pain in conditions giving rise to pain and stiffness in muscles and the tissue around joints.
3. What is the difference between Arnica gel and homeopathic Arnica?Arnica gel is a herbal product for use topically or externally. This is distinct to arnica taken as small pills or tincture, as a homeopathic remedy, used by some people for the treatment or prevention of bruising. Like other similar remedies, homeopathic arnica is made in a special way which leads it to be diluted successively – the final result is that it behaves in a different way from the original material it started from.
4. How long can I use Arnica gel for?There is no restriction to the use of Atrogel® Arnica gel externally – you can use it as long as you need pain relief.
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8. I am asthmatic and can't use some of the painkillers that most people can have, not even the rub-on gels. Can I use Atrogel® Arnica Gel?Yes, there is no reason for asthmatics not to use Atrogel® Arnica Gel, which is a gel that is applied topically to painful areas.
9. I am already on a lot of painkillers, but sometimes my joints are really hurting me, especially when I'm in bed – can I use Atrogel® alongside my other painkillers? Atrogel® Arnica Gel can be used alongside any other painkilling medication. This makes it very useful for people who cannot take more of the medication they are on. Rub it gently on to painful areas before bed and reapply if waking in the night with pain.
10. I have a stomach ulcer. Can I use Atrogel® Arnica Gel? My doctor says there are lots of painkillers I can't use.Atrogel® Arnica Gel is a topical application and is not contraindicated with any digestive ulcers, including stomach ulcers.
11. What are the key benefits and features of Atrogel® Arnica gel?
12. Are there any side effects associated with Atrogel® Arnica gel?:Like all arnica products used externally, Atrogel® Arnica gel can cause side effects, although not everybody gets them. Minor side effects can occur when using Atrogel® Arnica gel. These are likely to affect less than 1 in every 10 people and may take the form of skin reactions (itching, skin rash, dry skin, contact dermatitis).


text:
Which car ads show breaches of the Highway Code?
Which car ads show breaches of the Highway Code?
We've already collected many examples of adverts that show cycling to be normal and aspirational, yet would fall foul of the ASA's latest ruling.
To help further Cycling Scotland's appeal, we'd also like to point to the many adverts for cars that show flagrant breaches of the Highway Code.
So let's get started
In a recent Vauxhall Corsa advert, with the strapline "put the fun into driving" (driving kills or injures upwards of 220,000 people a year in the UK), car occupants are seen holding flares out of the window and appear to be drag racing at high speeds down empty streets.
Complaints were made to the ASA on the obvious grounds that this was dangerous - or at the very least careless - driving, but the ASA let off General Motors on the basis that the ad was not linked to the real world.
The ASA has also in the past excused Volvo for an online ad for one of their cars that suggested that someone was talking on their mobile phone while driving, but the additional safety features of the car kept "another eye on the road".
This Jaguar ad shows excessive speed and parking which clearly breaches Rule 242 of the Highway Code and committing an offence under the Road Traffic Act 1988, s22 (leaving a vehicle in a dangerous location).
Duncan Kay has below suggested this advert for Mini which shows someone imagining recreating the Italian Job (except this time in Milan rather than Turin).
If you have any other ads please let us know below or on Twitter or Facebook.
Don't know how BMW Mini got
Don't know how BMW Mini got away with this one either unless of course this type of driving is acceptable according to the Italian highway code?
so many tv documentaries
so many tv documentaries which show the driver engaged in busy conversations while driving. Top Gear (of course) is a major culprit, but many programmes show people not paying attention to the road because they are talking to camera. I presume this is to show that the reporter is dynamic and chasing the big story, but it has become a cliché as well as being against the highway code
watched the Audi "Land Of
watched the Audi "Land Of Quattro" TV advert last night
http://www.tvadmusi c.co.uk/2013/ 11/audi-land- of-quattro/
Good - The pedestrian at 0:07 has no hi viz in poor visibility
Good - The cyclist at 0:09 has no hi viz or helmet on snow
Bad - In the foggy & poor visibility scenes at 0:14 -0:16 I have serious doubts that the driver can stop in the distance that they can see, at the speed they are travelling. Even if Audi can prove that Audi Quarto has "superior" ; brakes and it can stop in that distance at that speed, the advert encourages/endorses travelling fast in fog & poor visibility.
Completely agree with Jim.
Completely agree with Jim. Could CTC put in an FoI to the BBC asking how many collisions have happened while they're filming drivers driving a vehicle and trying to talk to camera at the same time.
Surely if using a hand-held mobile is illegal and even using a hands-free mobile than being slightly over the drink driving limit, then trying to present a TV programme while driving on public roads should be illegal???
Has anyone else noticed the
Has anyone else noticed the latest corsair ad for the phone connectivity were the car is wandering across the white line and being pulled back at the last second?


text:
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text:
The latest really scary paper regarding GMOs has been circulated widely on Twitter today, primarily by the usual suspects (Bittman, Pollan, and many others). The paper (available here, on the blog of the primary author Judy Carman) is titled "A long-term toxicology study on pigs fed a combined genetically modified (GM) soy and GM maize diet." The study has already been criticized for various reasons by David Tribe and Mark Lynas. The authors of the study fed pigs for
nearly 2 years 22.7 weeks with either a "GM" or a "non-GM" diet. The GM diet was a mixture of corn and soybean that had Bt and glyphosate-resistance traits. The non-GM diet apparently has a similar amount of corn and soybean, but used non-GM conventional varieties instead. The authors measured LOTS of things, and mostly found there was no statistical differences between the GM and non-GM diets.
I don't have time to do a full critique, but there is at least one statistical choice that I found odd, and thought I'd throw it out there for others to discuss. The authors claim to have found 2 differences between groups of pigs fed the different diets, and that has been the basis for the widespread interest in this study, particularly among folks who are anti-biotechnology. From the abstract:
"There were no differences between pigs fed the GM and non-GM diets for feed intake, weight gain, mortality, and routine blood biochemistry measurements. The GM diet was associated with gastric and uterine differences in pigs. GM-fed pigs had uteri that were 25% heavier than non-GM fed pigs (p=0.025). GM-fed pigs had a higher rate of severe stomach inflammation with a rate of 32% of GM-fed pigs compared to 12% of non-GM-fed pigs (p=0.004). The severe stomach inflammation was worse in GM-fed males compared to non-GM fed males by a factor of 4.0 (p=0.041), and GM-fed females compared to non-GM fed females by a factor of 2.2 (p=0.034)."
So the GM diet apparently resulted in increased uterus weight, and increased stomach inflammation compared to the non-GM diet. Table 2 in the manuscript presents organ weights, and as described in the abstract, the uterus. Since I don't have the benefit of raw data, I suppose we'll have to trust the authors on this one, that the uterus weight was greater in GM-fed vs non-GM fed pigs. Group means were 0.12 and 0.10 for pigs in the GM and non-GM groups, respectively. Table 2 doesn't list the units for any of the numbers, so I don't know if the weights are in grams, kilograms, ounces, metric tons… As a plant scientist, I really have no concept of what a normal pig uterus should weigh. Or any uterus, for that matter. But I digress. [UPDATE: it was recently pointed out to me that the numbers are a percentage of total body weight. So 0.1 and 0.12% of body weight, I guess. I still don't really know if that is good, bad, or normal. Go ahead and let me know in the comments if you like.]
The second major finding of this study relates to stomach inflammation. The authors present in Table 3 of the manuscript "gross pathologies" related to various organs. For the stomach, the authors list 4 different categories related to inflammation:
- Nil inflammation
- Mild inflammation
- Moderate inflammation
- Severe inflammation
The authors compared the number of pigs that fell into each category independently, and found no differences between GM and non-GM groups with respect to Nil, Mild, or Moderate inflammation categories. But the authors found that there were more pigs from the GM-fed group with "Severe inflammation" compared to the non-GM group. And this is the major finding of the study; that "GM-fed pigs had a higher rate of severe stomach inflammation."
But this seems to me a very strange way to analyze this data. The 4 categories the authors used to classify stomach inflammation are what is known as ordinal categorical data, and are pretty common in the literature. The typical way to analyze ordinal data is to give values to each category, and conduct
either a t-test ora Mann-Whitney (also called Wilcoxson) test. [EDIT: many other tests are possible, the Mann-Whitney being among the simplest.] The reason for this, is that there is structure to the data; that is, Mild inflammation is worse than Nil inflammation. And Severe is worse than the other three categories. We lose that information by separating them for analysis the way the authors of the pig study did. All 4 categories give information about stomach inflammation, and if we look only at "severe" inflammation, we lose the additional information the other categories provide. A proper analysis would include the structure of these data.
Since the authors present the number of animals in each category, we can analyze the data in a more standard way. I've provided the R code for doing so if you'd like to follow along at home. We're going to use
## Coding: Nil = 0, Mild = 1, Moderate = 2, Severe = 3 ## enter the non-GM diet data: nonGM.fed<-c(rep(0,4),rep(1,31),rep(2,29),rep(3,9)) ## enter the GM diet data: GM.fed<-c(rep(0,8),rep(1,23),rep(2,18),rep(3,23))
[TABLE OMITTED in response to a valid criticism in the comments by Steve Kass.]
This table shows the number of pigs in each treatment group, and the mean and median values for stomach inflammation, based on the coding we used (Nil = 0, Mild = 1, Moderate = 2, Severe = 3). The mean inflammation values basically tell us that, on average, pigs on the non-GM diet had mild to moderate stomach inflammation, and the GM-fed pigs were only slightly different (1.59 vs 1.78). But are these values statistically different? Below is the code (and output) using a t-test and a Wilcoxson (Mann-Whitney) test:
[NOTE: I've left the code for t-test below, but as pointed out by several commenters, the Wilcoxson test is more appropriate for this data.]
t.test(nonGM.fed,GM.fed) # Welch Two Sample t-test # t = -1.248, df = 132.574, p-value = 0.2142 wilcox.test(nonGM.fed,GM.fed) # Wilcoxon rank sum test with continuity correction # W = 2325, p-value = 0.2081
Notice the p-values in the
t-test and Mann-Whitney test. Much higher than those reported by the authors who only analyzed the severe group. But does it hold up by running the males and females separately, as the authors did in Table 4?
## Males male.nonGM.fed<-c(rep(0,1),rep(1,16),rep(2,17),rep(3,2)) male.GM.fed<-c(rep(0,4),rep(1,12),rep(2,12),rep(3,8)) #t.test(male.nonGM.fed,male.GM.fed) wilcox.test(male.nonGM.fed,male.GM.fed) # Wilcoxon rank sum test with continuity correction # W = 600, p-value = 0.5669 ## Females female.nonGM.fed<-c(rep(0,3),rep(1,15),rep(2,12),rep(3,7)) female.GM.fed<-c(rep(0,4),rep(1,11),rep(2,6),rep(3,15)) #t.test(female.nonGM.fed,female.GM.fed) wilcox.test(female.nonGM.fed,female.GM.fed) # Wilcoxon rank sum test with continuity correction # W = 564, p-value = 0.2408
If I were to have analyzed these data, using the statistical techniques that I was taught were appropriate for the type of data, I would have concluded there was no statistical difference in stomach inflammation between the pigs fed the two different diets. To analyze these data the way the authors did makes it seem like they're trying to find a difference, where none really exist.
UPDATE: June 13, 2013
I've been accused by whoever runs the gmoseralini.org whoops… I mean the gmojudycarman.org website of failing "kindergarten-level statistics." I think that may be a slight exaggeration. Nonetheless, I will very briefly address their criticism. Bill Price has already addressed this to some extent in the comments:
Now, reasonable people can certainly disagree on how data should be analyzed. If there were only one correct way to analyze data, there would be far fewer statisticians in the world. But I stand by my view (and Dr. Price seems to agree) that is is inappropriate to collect data by categorizing into 4 ordinal categories, but then ignore that structure in the analysis. I concede that the Mann-Whitney (or Wilcoxson) test is more appropriate for this data compared to the t-test (both of which I presented above), but both tests above show the same result: very little evidence that the diets caused different amounts of stomach inflammation.
In the response at gmojudycarman.org, they state:
"Categorical data are data that fit into categories, such as male / female or pregnant / not pregnant. [Kniss] has tried to turn this sort of data into data that is continuous, like you get with body weight or height. This is really bad statistical methodology. It is like taking pregnant / not pregnant data and trying to twist that data into groups that could be described as: pregnant, half pregnant and fully pregnant. And you are right, it doesn't make sense to even try to do something like that."
Well, that's an interesting statement… because that is exactly what the Carmen et al. authors did, right? They "twisted" inflammed/not inflammed into Nil, Mild, Moderate, and Severe inflammation. Personally, I don't have a problem with using these categories (although the authors now seem to think it is "bad statistical methodology"??). My problem is with analyzing them separately.
There are different types of categorical data. The data described in the quote above is of a binomial nature (on/off, pregnant/not pregnant, present/absent, alive/dead). The data presented by the Carmen paper is more than that; it is Nil, Mild, Moderate, Severe. There are four different categories, that have a distinct order. Each category has meaning, and is linked to the others (Moderate is greater than Mild, but less than Severe). But this bit of criticism brings up an interesting question: what if we look at the data as a binary categorization (inflammed/not inflammed)? Let's do that!
### Inflammed or not inflammed ## enter the non-GM diet data: nonGM.fed<-c(rep(0,4),rep(1,69)) ## enter the GM diet data: GM.fed<-c(rep(0,8),rep(1,64)) N.obs<-c(length(nonGM.fed),length(GM.fed)) num.inflam<-c(sum(nonGM.fed),sum(GM.fed)) pct.inflam<-round(num.inflam/N.obs*100,0) data.frame(N.obs,num.inflam,pct.inflam,row.names=c("nonGM","GM"))
|Number of pigs
|Number with stomach inflammation
|Percentage of animals with stomach inflammation
Looking at the data this way, the GM-fed pigs had LESS inflammation! A whopping 95% of the animals fed non-GM feed had stomach inflammation, compared to 89% of the animals fed GM diets. That's a lot of stomach inflammation. Is this difference statistically significant?
wilcox.test(nonGM.fed,GM.fed) Wilcoxon rank sum test with continuity correction data: nonGM.fed and GM.fed W = 2776, p-value = 0.2216 alternative hypothesis: true location shift is not equal to 0
The p-value is 0.22, so not much evidence that there is a difference. And I don't care what type of fancy statistical test you use, you simply can't make the case that the GM-fed pigs were worse off if they had LESS stomach inflammation compared to the non-GM fed pigs.


text:
Emergency Gas Signs Everyone Should Know
If the gas line is damaged, the situation can quickly become horrible for everyone who is in its direct radius. For the sake of your own protection and the protection of those around you, you must make yourself aware of the following gas emergency symptoms and signs in Marietta.
Gas Smell Indoors or Outside
Emergency Gas Signs Everyone Should Know
Beyond or inside, make sure you know the smell of gas and who to contact when you kiss it. The smelly gas in your home could mean that one of the appliances is not working or it could be more serious, like a gas line leak. Be sure to call the plumber if you smell the gas inside or outside.
Sounds of Hiss or Blowing Emergency Gas Signs Everyone Should Know
If you hear a hiss or blow sound and you do not know where it came from, consider that the source may be underground. This sound can actually be a leaky gas channel and the sound of air can be a release pressure from within the gas path.
Dirt or Air Fly to the Air
When a gas line breaks or cracks, pressure escapes and often causes an explosion. Because so many underground gas lines, if you see dirt flying into the air suddenly, could be due to underground gas lines that explode. If you happen to be around a water body such as a lake or pond and see bubbles that explode on the surface or see a splash of water above the surface, this is also a symptom of gas line leakage.
A gas emergency in Marietta is a very serious matter. Make yourself aware of some of the signs of gas breaks so you are at home or taking a walk in the city, you will be able to tell the professionals about what might happen and keep yourself and others alright.


text:
Is Europe's adventure in international living about to end?
At Potsdam, Germany, this weekend, Chancellor Angela Merkel told the young conservatives of her Christian Democratic Union that Germany's attempt to create a multicultural society where people "live side by side and enjoy each other" has "failed, utterly failed."
Backing up her rueful admission are surveys showing 30 percent of Germans believe the country is overrun by foreigners. An equal number believe the foreigners come to feed off German welfare.
Merkel had in mind the Turks who came as gastarbeiters, guest workers, in the 1960s. Some 2.5 million now live in Germany.
Arabs and East Europeans have come more recently. One survey puts the Muslim population at 5 million.
"Multikulti is dead," says Horst Seehofer of Merkel's sister party, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria. He wants no more immigration from "alien cultures." Turks and other Muslims are not learning the language, he contends, not assimilating, not becoming Germans.
Awareness of deep differences with Turkish neighbors became acute for Germans when, grieving in solidarity with America after 9/11, they learned that Turkish sectors of Berlin were celebrating Islam's victory with barrages of bottle rockets.
Like all of Europe, Germany grows nervous.
This summer, Thilo Sarrazin, who sat on the Bundesbank board, published "Germany Abolishes Itself," which sold 300,000 copies in seven weeks. Sarrazin argued that Germany's Muslim population is intellectually inferior and unable or unwilling to learn the language or culture, and mass immigration is destroying the nation.
No rightist, but a stalwart of the socialist party, Sarrazin was forced out at the Bundesbank. Half his socialist party stood by him.
Across Europe, there is a resurgence of ethnonationalism that is feeding the ranks of populist and anti-immigrant parties that are gaining respectability and reaching for power.
Austrian nationalists triumphed in 2008 when the Freedom Party of Joerg Haider and the Alliance for the Future of Austria together took 29 percent of the vote. The Swiss People's Party of Christoph Blocher, largest in Bern, was behind the successful referendum to change the constitution to outlaw minarets and prohibit the wearing of burqas.
Hungary's Jobbik Party, which to the Financial Times "sits squarely in Europe's most repulsive arch-nationalist tradition and which blames Jews and Roma for the hardships of other Hungarians," pulled 17 percent of the vote this year and entered parliament with 47 seats, up from zero seats in 2006.
The Sweden Democrats just captured 6 percent of the vote and entered parliament for the first time with 20 seats, joining right-wing folk parties in Norway and Denmark.
Geert Wilders, a rising figure in Dutch politics, was charged with hate speech for equating Islam and Nazism. In June, his Freedom Party swept past the ruling Christian Democrats, who lost half of their strength in parliament. "More security, less crime, less immigration, less Islam—that is what the Netherlands has chosen," said Wilders.
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy—one eye on Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front, the other on the 2012 elections—rejecting cries of "Nazism" and "Vichyism," is dismantling Gypsy camps and deporting Gypsies to Romania. Milan is now following the French lead.
What is happening in Europe partakes of a global trend. Multiracial, multi-ethnic, multicultural nations are disintegrating.
Russians battle ethnic Muslim separatists in the North Caucasus. Seventy percent of Americans support an Arizona law to identify and expel illegal aliens. Beijing swamps the homelands of Tibetans and Uighurs with Han Chinese. India fights secession in Kashmir, Nagaland and the Naxalite provinces.
"Wars between nations have given way to wars within nations, " said Barack Obama in his Nobel Prize address.
Ethnonationalism tore Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union and Josip Tito's Yugoslavia into 22 separate nations, and is now tugging at the seams of all multi-ethnic states. Globalism is in retreat before tribalism.
But the awakening of Europe's establishment to the shallow roots of multiculturalism will likely prove frustrating and futile.
With her fertility rate below replacement levels for 40 years, projected to remain so for the next 40 years, Germany will lose 12 million of her 82 million people by 2050. Her median age will rise eight years to 53, and 40 percent of all Germans will be over 60.
Germany's problem is insoluble. She is running out of Germans.
Yet if her welfare state is to survive and her industries are to remain competitive, Germany will need millions of new workers.
Where are they to come from, if not the Third World? For not one European nation, save Iceland and Albania, has had a birth rate for decades that is not below zero population growth.
Baby boomer Europe decided in the 1960s and 1970s it wanted La Dolce Vita, not the hassle of children. It had that sweet life. Now the bill comes due. And the bill is the end of their tribes and countries as we have known them.
Old Europe is dying, and the populist and nationalist parties, in the poet's phrase, are simply raging "against the dying of the light."
Patrick J. Buchanan needs no introduction to VDARE.COM readers; his book State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America, can be ordered from Amazon.com. His latest book is Churchill, Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost the World, reviewed here by Paul Craig Roberts.


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This section has been created in order to keep track of the conferences attended by the CBG members.
International Society of Computational Biology (ISCB) - Latin America 2012 - Santiago, Chile - March 17-21
- General info
The International Society for Computational Biology (ISCB) has held the ISCB Latin America Conference on Bioinformatics in Santiago, Chile, in March 17-21, 2012. This meeting constituted the second regional ISCB Latin America meeting, with the first held in Montevideo, Uruguay, in March 2010.
Conferences are key to the development and exchange of new ideas in science. Over the years many thousands of participants have attended ISCB's annual ISMB conferences. As the majority of those attendees do their research in North America and Europe, the ISCB Regional Conferences aim to break the barrier imposed by high cost travel. How? By bringing a high quality conference, including lectures delivered by world-renowned scientists, to the regions of Latin America, Africa and Asia.
Toward this aim, in 2009 ISCB began organizing a newer series of smaller, regionally-based meetings as part of its mission to advance the science through world-wide education and training activities. These regional meetings have included ISCB-Africa (Mali 2009, South Africa 2011), ISCB-Latin America (Uruguay 2010) and ISCB-Asia (Malaysia 2011).
ISCB also aims to provide more students the opportunity to discuss and participate in the latest developments in bioinformatics and computational biology by bringing these meetings closer to home. We hope the ISCB-Latin America 2012 has been the second of many conferences that will contribute to the growth of the field within this region and support scientific innovation across Latin America.
More than 250 people attended, primarily from countries in Latin America.
The first two days of the meeting (March 17-18) were dedicated to hands-on practical tutorials and workshops covering different topics of interest.
The main conference took place March 19th-21st and featured the following six topic sessions (Each session had two keynote speakers and six oral presentations. There were also two poster sessions):
Session I. Comparative Genomics and Evolution
Session II. Genomics, Proteomics, Metagenomics and Metabolomics
Session III. Macromolecule Structure/Function Prediction
Session IV. Computer Aided Drug Design and Docking Simulations
Session V. Biomedicine and Immunoinformatics
Session VI. Functional Genomics and Systems Biology
The programme book of the conference
F1000 Poster: the open repository for posters and slides
Poster presented at the conference
- Selection of talks
"Function prediction at different spatial scales", Peer Bork, EMBL, Heidelberg, Germany
- STITCH 3: zooming in on protein-chemical interactions,Kuhn M, Szklarczyk D, Franceschini A, von Mering C, Jensen LJ, Bork P, Nucleic Acids Res., 2012
To facilitate the study of interactions between proteins and chemicals, we have created STITCH, an aggregated database of interactions connecting over 300 000 chemicals and 2.6 million proteins from 1133 organisms. Compared to the previous version, the number of chemicals with interactions and the number of high-confidence interactions both increase 4-fold. The database can be accessed interactively through a web interface, displaying interactions in an integrated network view. It is also available for computational studies through downloadable files and an API. As an extension in the current version, we offer the option to switch between two levels of detail, namely whether stereoisomers of a given compound are shown as a merged entity or as separate entities. Separate display of stereoisomers is necessary, for example, for carbohydrates and chiral drugs. Combining the isomers increases the coverage, as interaction databases and publications found through text mining will often refer to compounds without specifying the stereoisomer. The database is accessible at http://stitch.embl.de/.
- Drug target identification using side-effect similarity.Campillos M, Kuhn M, Gavin AC, Jensen LJ, Bork P, Science,2008
Targets for drugs have so far been predicted on the basis of molecular or cellular features, for example, by exploiting similarity in chemical structure or in activity across cell lines. We used phenotypic side-effect similarities to infer whether two drugs share a target. Applied to 746 marketed drugs, a network of 1018 side effect-driven drug-drug relations became apparent, 261 of which are formed by chemically dissimilar drugs from different therapeutic indications. We experimentally tested 20 of these unexpected drug-drug relations and validated 13 implied drug-target relations by in vitro binding assays, of which 11 reveal inhibition constants equal to less than 10 micromolar. Nine of these were tested and confirmed in cell assays, documenting the feasibility of using phenotypic information to infer molecular interactions and hinting at new uses of marketed drugs. "
- Enterotypes of the human gut microbiome, Arumugam M et al., Nature, 2011
Our knowledge of species and functional composition of the human gut microbiome is rapidly increasing, but it is still based on very few cohorts and little is known about variation across the world. By combining 22 newly sequenced faecal metagenomes of individuals from four countries with previously published data sets, here we identify three robust clusters (referred to as enterotypes hereafter) that are not nation or continent specific. We also confirmed the enterotypes in two published, larger cohorts, indicating that intestinal microbiota variation is generally stratified, not continuous. This indicates further the existence of a limited number of well-balanced host-microbial symbiotic states that might respond differently to diet and drug intake. The enterotypes are mostly driven by species composition, but abundant molecular functions are not necessarily provided by abundant species, highlighting the importance of a functional analysis to understand microbial communities. Although individual host properties such as body mass index, age, or gender cannot explain the observed enterotypes, data-driven marker genes or functional modules can be identified for each of these host properties. For example, twelve genes significantly correlate with age and three functional modules with the body mass index, hinting at a diagnostic potential of microbial markers.
my.microbes.eu: the study aims to provide new ways of analyzing any person's gut microbes in the context of samples from many individuals around the world. Visit the website if you wish to donate or participate.
"Using genomics to improve response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with rectal cancer", Anamaría Camargo, Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, Brazil
Development of Personalized Tumor Biomarkers Using Massively Parallel Sequencing, Rebecca J. Leary et al., Sci. Transl. Med., 2010 -->idenfication of personalized biomarkers in rectal tumors
"Using 'omics' data to study regulator-target interactions and organizational principles in networks", Yves van de peer, University of Ghent, Belgium
- Module networks: identifying regulatory modules and their condition-specific regulators from gene expression data, Segal E. et al., Nature Genetics, 2003
Much of a cell's activity is organized as a network of interacting modules: sets of genes coregulated to respond to different conditions. We present a probabilistic method for identifying regulatory modules from gene expression data. Our procedure identifies modules of coregulated genes, their regulators and the conditions under which regulation occurs, generating testable hypotheses in the form 'regulator X regulates module Y under conditions W'. We applied the method to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae expression data set, showing its ability to identify functionally coherent modules and their correct regulators. We present microarray experiments supporting three novel predictions, suggesting regulatory roles for previously uncharacterized proteins.
- Softwares developed
- LeMoNE: it is a software package for Learning Module Networks from gene expression data. Module networks revisited: computational assessment of model predictions, Joshi, A., De Smet, R., Marchal, K., Van de Peer, Y., Michoel, T., Bioinformatics, 2009.
- Network Motif Clustering Toolbox: It is a Matlab/Octave toolbox for clustering topological network motifs in large-scale, integrated networks.
- CyClus3D is a Cytoscape plugin for identifying functional modules in integrated networks composed of multiple interaction types. CyClus3D operates by clustering user-defined 3-node network motifs.
http://thebiogrid.org/: the Biological General Repository for Interaction Datasets
"On the evolution of PPI networks", Sandro Joé de Souza, Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, Brazil
- The role of exon shuffling in shaping protein-protein interaction networks, Douglas V Cancherini,Gustavo S França and Sandro J de Souza,BMV Genomics, 2010
Physical protein-protein interaction (PPI) is a critical phenomenon for the function of most proteins in living organisms and a significant fraction of PPIs are the result of domain-domain interactions. Exon shuffling, intron-mediated recombination of exons from existing genes, is known to have been a major mechanism of domain shuffling in metazoans. Thus, we hypothesized that exon shuffling could have a significant influence in shaping the topology of PPI networks.We tested our hypothesis by compiling exon shuffling and PPI data from six eukaryotic species: Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, Cryptococcus neoformans and Arabidopsis thaliana. For all four metazoan species, genes enriched in exon shuffling events presented on average higher vertex degree (number of interacting partners) in PPI networks. Furthermore, we verified that a set of protein domains that are simultaneously promiscuous (known to interact to multiple types of other domains), self-interacting (able to interact with another copy of themselves) and abundant in the genomes presents a stronger signal for exon shuffling.Exon shuffling appears to have been a recurrent mechanism for the emergence of new PPIs along metazoan evolution. In metazoan genomes, exon shuffling also promoted the expansion of some protein domains. We speculate that their promiscuous and self-interacting properties may have been decisive for that expansion.
- Bioinformatics Training and Education in Iberoamerica
Since the 90's , bioinformatics research has emerged in Iberoamerica and now high quality research is done.
Training can be found at different levels:
-PhD studies/postdoc: research projects, PhD programmes, fellowships are available
-Master studies: research projects, PhD programmes, fellowships are available
-Undergraduate training (most recently):undergraduate programmes with fellowhip possibilities
PhD programmes exist in Brazil (since 2003) and Spain
Masters exist in Costa Rica (since 2011), Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Brazil
Undergraduate programmes exist in Mexico (since 2003), Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal
Future offers will be available in Mexico, Chile and Guatemala
More info:
- Iberoamerican Society for Bioinformatics. It is a joint collaborative project of several research groups from Iberoamerica working in the new field of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology.
-Bioinformatics Training Network (BTN).This network comprises individuals involved in the provision of bioinformatics training. Our goal is to tackle training challenges in Bioinformatics, build pragmatic solutions to them, and provide mutual support. We encourage the bioinformatics community to join this initiative and to enrich it with their active participation.The BTN is a community-based project aiming to provide a centralised facility to share materials, to list training events (including course contents and trainers), and to share and discuss training experiences.
-How to organize a virtual conference anywhere: ten simple rules


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As tech millionaires multiply, wealth advisers struggle to connect
When the nine-person startup he co-founded was bought by Facebook for a reported $15 million in January, Cemre Gungor, 27, was inundated with phone calls and emails from wealth advisers. Yet he spurned them all, opting instead to open an account with Betterment, an online financial adviser launched in 2010 that automatically invests in a portfolio of exchange traded funds based mainly on a client's age.
"My personality doesn't lend itself to being the sort of person who would research good wealth managers and then trust them with making decisions. I don't want to spend any time thinking or caring about that," said Gungor, who grew up in Turkey and Finland before moving to the U.S.
He and others of his generation are posing a challenge for wealth advisers who are streaming into Silicon Valley and San Francisco after the public stock offerings of companies such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter helped California create more millionaires than any other U.S. state since 2009.
But even as traditional financial firms battle for office space and seek out new customers, they're finding that the pickings aren't easy. The youngest winners of the thriving tech economy, many of whom came of age during the last financial crisis, aren't often interested in the ideas that attracted clients in the past. Nor are they fans of the old-school model of letting a financial planner make decisions with minimal client input.
In response, traditional advisers are changing the way they practice. They're finding that young clients need help with lifestyle issues ranging from how to give money away to how to deal with old friends who are jealous of a sudden tech windfall. And they are giving clients more of the hard data behind their decisions than they might with clients who inherited their fortunes or built them up over time.
Debra Wetherby, an independent adviser whose Wetherby Asset Management manages about $3.6 billion in assets, has fielded questions from young, single workers about when and how to tell potential spouses about their fortunes. Christine Leong Connors, who heads JPMorgan's Palo Alto office, has talked with tech clients about how to donate money effectively when their own net worth is larger than the charity they are giving to. And Michael Williams, a UBS Wealth Management Americas branch manager in San Francisco, has found himself courting potential clients whose paydays are so far away that they're still pulling all-nighters and sometimes sleeping in their startup offices.
It's all part of an attempt to appeal to a new demographic of money. The youngest members of Generation X and millennials are the most likely to say that they are dissatisfied with their wealth adviser, according to a report by the Spectrem Group, a market research company in Lake Forest, Illinois.
"The industry is not in alignment with folks who are very tech savvy, and it's an industry that is trying to catch up," said George Walper Jr., the president of Spectrem.
Nowhere is the collision between new money and the old-line business of wealth management more on display than in California. Firms like Barclays, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Bank of America Corp's Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase & Co have all expanded their Bay Area operations as firms like Facebook have gone public and the shares of more mature firms like Google have hit all-time highs.
In the three years since JPMorgan opened an office in Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley, its headcount has swelled to 30 advisers from six. When combined with its sister office in San Francisco, its number of advisers in Northern California has grown by 50 percent, to 110 people, since 2012.
The firm created separate teams based on how clients have built their wealth, said Jeremy Geller, the head of JPMorgan's Private Bank business in Northern California. Unlike other teams which may be more focused on investment ideas, the tech-centered team works on anticipating the personal financial consequences of one-time events such as a startup getting another round of funding, going public or selling the business altogether. Advisers discuss with young clients such issues as when to start selling a personal stake in a business, Geller said.
Advisers say they are working to adapt to the needs of tech workers who are skeptical that the wealth management industry offers much value.
Wetherby, 56, the independent adviser, finds herself having more conversations with clients who are unsure of how to handle their newfound fortunes at a time when income inequality is a larger part of the national conversation.
"For many of them, this is something that's private and new and separates them from their existing social group," said Wetherby. "It's a big adjustment and so a lot of them are trying to be quieter about it."
She also appeals to new clients by promoting so-called social impact investing, which tries to make money while also doing some social good such as buying shares in a company in the clean water business.
Darell Krasnoff, a partner at Los Angeles-based Bel Air Investment Advisors who plans to open a San Francisco office for the firm by the end of the year, said that the approach he takes with wealthy tech clients is similar regardless of their ages. He has won new clients like Kamran Pourzanjani, he said, by creating data-heavy custom reports that appeal to tech workers more comfortable with the language of numbers.
After the firm he co-founded, PriceGrabber.com, was acquired for about $500 million in 2005, Pourzanjani, 54, spent 8 years bouncing between financial advisers who did not present enough data to convince him. He eventually signed on with Bel Air, in part because Krasnoff was able to provide custom spreadsheets that allowed him to have faith that Krasnoff's plans were solid.
The idea of trusting a financial adviser with his wealth after spending years as an entrepreneur making all of his own decisions was a "giant leap," Pourzanjani said. "That's definitely a struggle for a lot of people" in the tech industry, he said.
Wealthfront, a private company that has received funding from DAG Ventures and other venture capital firms, represents the other end of the spectrum of personalized advice. The company counts Burton Malkiel, a Princeton professor whose book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" helped popularize passive investing, as its chief investment officer, a role that chiefly focuses on evaluating asset classes and allocation strategies that underpin the firm's automated process.
About 60 percent of its clients are under the age of 35, and it charges a fee of 25 cents per $100 invested for its services, and levies no fees at all for accounts under $10,000.
Both Wealthfront, and its competitor Betterment, are heavily courting young workers whose memories of the financial crisis make them skeptical that anyone can have insights into where the stock market is headed. So far, that message has been resonating with its clients.
"Unless you're at the stage and scope that you need to be playing crazy tax games, it doesn't make sense to talk to a wealth manager," said a young Stanford business school graduate whose company was acquired by a large technology company last year. He didn't want to use his last name because he didn't want to draw attention to himself.
Adam Nash, Wealthfront's chief executive, used to work at both LinkedIn and eBay and said that his clients are mostly found in San Francisco, New York, and other places where "young people are able to make money."
They tend to put more trust in technology than in people, Nash said. "They don't really believe that a person is going to be watching their money 24/7, but they believe that a computer is," he said.
(Reporting by David Randall. Editing by Linda Stern and John Pickering)


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