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GreenPolicy360 Arctic Watch
- What happens in the North doesn't stay in the North
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November/October 2021
'A Trash Heap for Our Children' How Norilsk, in the Russian Arctic, Became One of the Most Polluted Places on Earth
Via Inside Climate News
At the International Climate Summit in Glasgow
by Seth Borenstein @ the COP-26 /
- https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-scotland-glaciers-greenland-f8a205b6e91ee496453d1a9c3fa4ea92
The Arctic is warming three times faster than the rest of the planet and is on such a knife's edge of survival that the U.N. climate negotiations underway in Scotland this week could make the difference between ice and water at the top of the world in the same way that a couple of tenths of a degree matter around the freezing mark, scientists say.
The fate of the Arctic looms large during the climate talks in Glasgow — the farthest north the negotiations have taken place — because what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. Scientists believe the warming there is already contributing to weather calamities elsewhere around the world.
"If we end up in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic in the summertime, that's something human civilization has never known," said former NASA chief scientist Waleed Abdalati, who runs the University of Colorado's environment program. "That's like taking a sledgehammer to the climate system."
What's happening in the Arctic is a runaway effect.
September 2021
What Happens in the North Doesn't Stay in the North
It's All Connected
Ben See (@ClimateBen) Tweeted:
Hardly anybody on Earth knows that the Arctic is warming 3 to 4 times faster than the rest of the planet as its sea ice is destroyed during the abrupt climate change event of 20th/21st century capitalism. Radical action is required now in 2021. Nobody will be immune to this.
August 2021
July 2021
It's All Connected
You often hear @MichaelEMann say the models underestimate the connection... a connection between climate change and a more amp'd - wavy jet... you can see how when we have a natural wavy jet pattern, which is very established this spring/summer, climate change impacts enhance it, by having more energy in the system (heat and moisture) magnifying extremes.
Jennifer Francis of Woods Hole Research Institute drew the connection back in 2015. Viewing an increase in jet stream waviness, she and fellow authors concluded, "These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase..."
Some models which emphasize Arctic heating show a tripling by the end of the century. But if we can keep global heating under 2°C/3.6°F, we can likely avert those increases.
This is why we need dramatic reductions in burning coal, oil and natural gas beginning immediately, as well as in deforestation, another significant source of climate pollution. The emergence of radical impacts demands radical action. Business as usual is done. If we want to leave a world with which our children can cope, when the capacity of humanity and nature to adapt is stressed beyond the breaking point, we need to rise up as people and demand change now.
Via Zachary Labe/UCI - https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-figures/
Observations and global climate model experiments identifying linkages between Arctic climate change (especially due to sea ice) and large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes.
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (1979-2020) - GIF
Changes in Annual Surface Air Temperature (1979-2020) - GIF
Changes in Annual Arctic Temperature and Sea Ice Extent (1979-2020) GIF
Arctic Temperature Anomalies (1979-2020) - GIF
Arctic Annual Sea Ice - Past 100 Years - GIF
June 2021
Ground Temperatures Hit 118 Degrees in the Arctic Circle
The 118-degree-Fahrenheit temperature was measured on the ground in Verkhojansk, in Yakutia, Eastern Siberia, by the European Space Agency's Copernicus Sentinel satellites.
Norway taken to Court over drilling in the Arctic
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/16/climate-activists-take-norway-european-human-rights-court-arctic-oil-drilling-plans
The People vs. Arctic Oil
- https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/the-people-vs-arctic-oil-climate-activists-target-norway-human-rights-court-2021-06-15/
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Follow the MOSAIC Expedition into the Arctic
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May 2021
April 2021
Timelapse from Google Earth
Welcome to Timelapse!
Rebecca Moore, Director, Google Earth, Earth Engine & Outreach:
To explore Timelapse in Google Earth, go to g.co/Timelapse — choose any place on the planet where you want to see time in motion.
- Launch Date: April 15, 2021
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The Carbon Mapper Partnership
Welcome to the Carbon Mapper Program
- NASA's Earth sciences mission --- focused on supporting a strong, data-driven response to the climate crisis.
March 2021
(CNN) Russia launched its space satellite Arktika-M on Sunday on a mission to monitor the climate and environment in the Arctic amid a push by the Kremlin to expand the country's activities in the region.
The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average over the last three decades and Moscow is seeking to develop the energy-rich region, investing in the Northern Sea Route for shipping across its long northern flank as ice melts.
The satellite successfully reached its intended orbit after being launched from Kazakhstan's Baikonur cosmodrome by a Soyuz rocket, Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Russia's Roscosmos space agency, said in a post on Twitter.
Russia plans to send up a second satellite in 2023 and, combined, the two will offer round-the-clock, all-weather monitoring of the Arctic Ocean and the surface of the Earth, Roscosmos said.
February 2021
Arctic 'Polar Vortex' Visits Texas
What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic
Top of the News @GreenPolicy360
- Texas not prepared for a 'Polar Vortex' era
- More on the storm & Texas oil/gas politics
January 2021
World's ice melting faster than ever
- https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/worlds-ice-is-melting-faster-than-ever-climate-scientists-say-11611565200
From Antarctica to the Arctic, the world's ice is melting faster than ever, according to a new global satellite survey that calculated the amount of ice lost from a generation of rising temperatures.
Between 1994 and 2017, the Earth lost 28 trillion metric tons of ice, the survey showed. That is an amount roughly equivalent to a sheet of ice 100 meters thick covering the state of Michigan or the entire U.K.
"It's such a huge amount it's hard to imagine it," said Thomas Slater, a research fellow at the U.K.'s University of Leeds Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling and the lead author of a paper describing the new research.
From the polar caps to the glaciers of Europe, Asia and South America, global warming is melting the planet's ice faster than ever and speeding the inundation of the world's coastlines.
New research shows the annual melt rate grew from 0.8 trillion tons in the 1990s to 1.3 trillion tons by 2017, and has accelerated most in the places with the most ice—the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves and sheets.
Those massive systems of land and sea-based ice are melting as fast as the worst-case climate scenarios in major global climate reports, said Thomas Slater, a co-author of the new study in The Cryosphere that measured the meltdown from 1994 to 2017, which covers a timespan when every decade was warmer than the previous one and also includes the 20 warmest years on record.
Greenland careening ice loss...
Novatek now shipping LNG through the Northern Sea Route
Ice-free, the Arctic opens to ship more global warming gas
December 2020
Polar-ward climate zones shift and consequent tipping points
by Andrew Glikson
The concept of a global climate tipping point/s implies a confluence of climate change processes in several parts of the world where regional climate changes can combine as a runaway shifts to a new climate state. Conversely the shift of climate zones can constitute the underlying factor that triggers extreme weather events which culminate in tipping points. These shifts include the expansion of the tropics, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms and weakening of boundaries of the polar vortex, allowing breach of air masses of contrasting temperatures through the jet stream polar boundary, with ensuing snow storms and heatwaves.
Read more about ... observations of the "weakening of boundaries of the polar vortex", in other words, it's all connected...
What happens in the North doesn't stay in the North
- https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/polar-ward-climate-zones-shift-and-consequent-tipping-points.html
- https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201208-arctic-endured-one-of-its-hottest-years-in-2020-study
November/October 2020
- https://www.arctictoday.com/the-u-s-heavy-duty-coast-guard-icebreaker-polar-star-will-make-a-winter-voyage-to-arctic-alaska/
With ability to break through ice that is up to 21 feet thick, the Polar Star will be able to handle winter ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort... territory where the Coast Guard icebreaker Healy usually sails — but its Alaska operations are conducted in summer and fall, when the sea ice is low. "The Polar Star is a much more capable icebreaker. It's older, but it's capable of powering through thicker, older ice."
The Polar Star's exact mission in Alaska waters this winter has yet to be determined, Cangemi said. There are hopes that the ship will be able to support some of the scientific research that would have been done this year from the Healy but was not carried out...
September 2020
Warming shrinks Arctic Ocean ice to 2nd lowest on record
by Seth Borenstein, Science Writer / Associated Press
A Farewell to Arctic Ice
The Guardian
Ice Sheet Melt Worst Case Scenario
- https://www.sciencealert.com/ice-sheet-melting-is-perfectly-in-line-with-our-worst-case-scenario-scientists-warn
August 2020
Greenland's ice sheet melted faster than ever before in 2019, study says. Worrying news for coastal cities / CNN
Greenland's ice sheet lost an annual record of 532 billion tons of ice, with 223 billion tons of ice lost during the month of July alone.
To put that in comparison, between 2003 and 2016 the ice sheet lost about 255 billion tons of ice on average -- per year.
"We have documented another record loss year for Greenland," said Ingo Sasgen, a glaciologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and co-author of the study.
"What this shows is that the ice sheet is not only out of balance but it's increasingly likely to produce more and more extreme loss years."
The report follows another study published last week that found Greenland's ice sheet has melted to a point of no return, and is retreating in rapid bursts, leading to a sudden and unpredictable rise in sea levels.
In Memory of Planet Citizen Konrad Steffen
Renowned climate scientist dies in Greenland ice sheet accident
- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/13/konrad-steffen-death-climate-change-scientist-dies-greenland/3362486001/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/konrad-steffen-koni-climate-scientist-dies-greenland-ice-sheet-crevasse/
- https://www.dailycamera.com/2020/08/10/konrad-steffen-former-cires-director-dies-in-greenland-accident/
In 2017, Konrad Steffen talks about the Polar Research Station, climate change and the Greenland landscape
The Tipping Point in Greenland, Past the Point of No Return
- https://www.sciencealert.com/greenland-s-melting-ice-sheet-has-passed-the-point-of-no-return-scientists-say/
Tipping Point Reached 20 Years Ago
New study warns: We have underestimated pace at which the Arctic is melting
Temperatures in the Arctic Ocean between Canada, Russia and Europe are warming faster than researchers' climate models have been able to predict.
Over the past 40 years, temperatures have risen by one degree every decade, and even more so over the Barents Sea and around Norway's Svalbard archipelago, where they have increased by 1.5 degrees per decade throughout the period.
This is the conclusion of a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
"Our analyses of Arctic Ocean conditions demonstrate that we have been clearly underestimating the rate of temperature increases in the atmosphere nearest to the sea level, which has ultimately caused sea ice to disappear faster than we had anticipated," explains Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institutet (NBI) and one of the study's researchers.
July 2020
'Another Ice Sheet Disintegrates'
Scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder initially predicted the disappearance of the St. Patrick Bay ice caps would take place over five years, but it's actually only taken three.
The frozen sheets, probably in place for several centuries, measured more than 10 square kilometres (3.86 square miles) combined at the end of the 1950s, and have now shrunk down to nothing. It's a sign of the climate change that's gaining momentum all around the world, and showing no signs of stopping.
Take the Ice-free Northern Route
Russian whistleblower risking it all to expose the scale of the disaster. Environmentalists calling it the worst ecological catastrophe in the polar Arctic.
Arctic warming? "More like three times the global mean." -- Dr. Gavin Schmidt
- Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) | https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin
June 2020
A Disastrous Summer in the Arctic
Weather Report: Siberia is Hot, Really Hot
Alarming heat scorched Siberia on Saturday (June 20, 2020) as the small town of Verkhoyansk (67.5°N latitude) reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, 32 degrees above the normal high temperature... this is likely the hottest temperature ever recorded in Siberia and also the hottest temperature ever recorded north of the Arctic Circle, which begins at 66.5°N.
Greenland: 'Yuge Changes' in 'Human Time'
'New Arctic': Wildlife Migrations & Shifting Patterns as the Arctic Warms
- Arctic / 'New North' Photo Essay
May 2020
Earlier this week in Siberia up to 86 degrees F. (30.1 C.)
The Arctic is ... 'Freakishly Warm'
The Arctic has been on one recently. Russia had its hottest winter ever recorded, driven largely by Siberian heat. That heat hasn't let up as the calendar turns to spring. In fact, it's intensified and spread across the Arctic. Last month was the hottest April on record for the globe, driven by high Arctic temperatures that averaged an astounding 9.4 degrees Celsius above normal, according to NASA data...
Large parts of Russia were anywhere from 6 to 8 degrees Celsius hotter than normal, according to data kept by Russia's weather service. That smashes the previous record set in the winter of 2015-16 by 1.3 degrees Celsius. Amid the widespread heat were major records in places like Moscow, which barely got a winter at all this year.
April 2020
Shell Abandons Arctic Drilling Agreement with Russia
March 2020
Oil/Gas Stock Prices Continue to Plunge
Fossil Fuels Demand Continues Its Historic Fall
Gasoline Demand Falls Most Ever
- https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/01/the-other-bomb-thats-dropping-cramers-warning-as-first-shale-company-files-for-chapter-11.html
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/saudis-boost-oil-output-defying-trump-e2-80-99s-plea-to-end-price-war/ar-BB120I0d
This could go even lower': Oil prices plunge to 17-year lows as demand drop threatens to overwhelm storage facilities
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/crude-oil-prices-plunge-price-war-storage-and-coronavirus-fears-2020-3-1029043473
Crude oil prices tanked as continued fears over the coronavirus pandemic slammed energy demand.
February 2020
The Arctic Is Warming 'Twice As Fast' As Other Areas of the Planet
BP 'Reimagining Energy' ...
The world's carbon budget is finite and running out fast; we need a rapid transition to net zero. -- Bernard Looney, BP chief executive officer
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-11/why-company-carbon-cuts-should-include-scope-check-quicktake
January 2020
Permafrost Is Thawing So Fast, It's Gouging Holes in the Arctic
Normally, these terrains of frozen soil thaw gradually. But in some places, it's thawing so abruptly that landscapes are collapsing in on themselves
Via Nature Geoscience
December 2019
2019 Arctic Report Card
The average annual land surface air temperature north of 60° N for October 2018-August 2019 was the second warmest since 1900. The warming air temperatures are driving changes in the Arctic environment that affect ecosystems and communities on a regional and global scale.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing nearly 267 billion metric tons of ice per year and contributing to global sea-level rise.
Greenland ice sheet loss at 'worst-case' scenario
North American Arctic snow cover in May 2019 was the fifth lowest in 53 years of record. June snow cover was the third lowest.
Tundra greening continues to increase in the Arctic, particularly on the North Slope of Alaska, mainland Canada, and the Russian Far East.
Trump: It's a Hoax
- https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/more-and-more-links-are-emerging-between-warming-and-extreme-weather/
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/10/arctic-may-have-crossed-key-threshold-emitting-billions-tons-carbon-into-air-long-dreaded-climate-feedback/
The North Polar Region has warmed almost as much in the last decade as the whole of the Earth in the last 137 years, according to a new study.
The research paper claims the Arctic has warmed by 1.35°F (0.75°C) in 10 years, while Earth as a whole has warmed by around 1.44°F (0.8°C) since the start of the 1880s.
The new research paper, written by 15 international experts, predicts the effects of a 3.6°F (2°C) average global temperature rise – a milestone anticipated in the Paris Agreement.
'Many of the changes over the past decade are so dramatic they make you wonder what the next decade of warming will bring,' said lead author Eric Post, a UC Davis professor of climate change ecology.
'If we haven't already entered a new Arctic, we are certainly on the threshold.'
Fox News: Greenland Ice Sheet Melt Accelerating
Science Advances: Arctic Warming Fast & Faster
November 2019
Then and Now
October 2019
On Thin Ice
The Arctic has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, with higher temperatures pushing sea ice into a loop of melting and thinning. Its extent is lower today than in the '80s and '90s in "every area, every month and every season", according to a recent IPCC report, which points out the plunging sea ice levels of September are probably unseen in at least 1,000 years. The same report points out that the Arctic's sea ice melt season has grown as ice melts earlier and waters freeze later in the year. "We'll have winter sea ice for a long time to come, but unless actions are quickly taken, the summer sea ice might be essentially gone only a few decades from now," says Dr. Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
Trump: There's not a climate crisis.
Trump on the Arctic melting, it's an opportunity. It's time to speed up gas and oil drilling in the Arctic and globally.
- https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/463695-trump-administration-argues-there-is-no-climate-crisis-in
What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic
- https://www.eco-business.com/news/what-happens-in-the-arctic-doesnt-stay-in-the-arctic-why-the-north-pole-matters-to-asia/
Beauty & Peril in Greenland
- Read the PBS story of the melt
September 2019
Climate Crisis, Law of the Sea, the Arctic Five, the Arctic Council, and the 'Pompeo Doctrine'
Oil, Gas, Minerals & Mining in a Melting Arctic
August 2019
Breaking Records, Melting in Greenland
Greenland & the Arctic is "where the action is" (Video)
Helluva Summer: "Alaska Waters Ice Free"
Glaciers of Iceland: Going, Going, and Gone
A heatwave in Greenland is producing record highs across the ice sheet, including at East Grip, the second highest monitoring station. "If you start melting at the top of the ice sheet, we are going to lose [the] Greenland ice sheet long-term."
At the summit of the Greenland ice cap the temperature rarely rises above zero degrees centigrade — the elevation is 3,200m and the ice below is more than a mile thick.
But last Friday (Aug 2, 2019), as the sun beat down, a small weather station laden with sensors captured something highly unusual: the temperature crept past zero and up to 3.6C — the highest since records began three decades ago. As temperatures rose across the massive ice sheet, which blankets an area five times the size of Germany, around 60 per cent of the surface started to melt, one of the largest ever recorded.
Scientists know of only three prior occasions in the past 800 years when there has been melting at the very top of the ice cap, which is kept chilled by the large volume of ice beneath. But this seems to be getting more frequent — it is now the second time this decade it has happened.
July 2019
Believe it or not, Arctic Wildfires
Historic heat wave in Greenland... and historic fires in the Arctic
The Arctic is on fire, but it's just not trees that are burning, it's peatlands. The problem is supremely urgent.
"(Y)ou can burn well over 1,000 years of carbon accumulation in one single fire."
- https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/arctic-fires-you-have-to-go-to-a-different-planet-to-find-a-more-persistent-type/
June 2019
Temperatures 40 degrees above normal, Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet see record June melting
May 2019
Via DoD / U.S. Pompeo warns of "aggressive behavior" in the Arctic region
Via Eyes on the Arctic / Pompeo lashes out at China, Russia
Via Union of Concerned Scientists / Trump administration: Arctic warming is good
Via Bulletin of Atomic Scientists / Trump administration and 'art' of talking climate change without using the term 'climate change'
April 2019
Reminder from the World Economic Forum / Global Agenda: 4 reasons why the Arctic is key to our planet's survival
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
• https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b/meta
• https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326/page/Arctic-Environmental-Variability-Change
March 2019
Anchorage Daily News / Where's the Ice?
Sea ice is again at a historic low in the Bering Sea.
At the time of year when ice usually reaches its maximum, there's open water in a vast area stretching from Bristol Bay to the Bering Strait, said Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
"You could take your sailboat and sail from Dillingham all the way to Little Diomede and never see much more than an ice cube," he said.
In the middle of Bering Strait, the ice went out on Thursday, leaving nothing but water...
March and early April are typically when sea ice in the Bering Sea reaches its maximum extent, and when communities that live along the coast travel on the ice for subsistence hunting and fishing.
The unprecedented lack of ice in the Bering Sea follows another record-breaking winter. Last spring, in 2018, the extent of ice in the Bering Sea only reached half of its previous lowest size, which was recorded in 2001. Thoman called the lack of ice "stunning" at the time.
This spring, the situation is even more extreme. While there's more ice on the Russian side of the Bering Sea, there's virtually none on the Alaska side.
Arctic Undergoing Most Unprecedented Transition in Human History
China, Russia, the Arctic, and Military Positioning
December 2018
November 2018
Climate Impact Far Beyond the Arctic
October 2018
NASA Video / 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Ties for Sixth Lowest Minimum Extent on NASA Record
First Container Ship Crosses the Arctic
Melting Arctic ice lets world's biggest shipping firm complete first voyage through previously impenetrable Northeast Passage
- Maersk sent a new ship across the polar sea for the first time
- The route has historically been difficult to traverse because of thick sea ice
- Global warming has melted much of the route, opening it up to trade ships
The Northern Sea Route could be a shorter route for journeys from East Asia to Europe than the Northwest Passage over Canada because it will likely be free of ice sooner due to climate change.
The container vessel, Venta Maersk, traveled from Vladivostok to St Petersburg over the northern top of Russia.
Experts say the new passage reduces the most commonly used East Asia-Europe route via the Suez Canal from 13,000 miles (21,000 kilometres) to 8,000 miles (12,800 kilometres), cutting transit time by 10-15 days.
Typically vessels taking this icy route have required an ice-breaker escort, but rising global temperatures are making the passage easier to traverse.
The Northern Sea Route is becoming appealing to the shipping industry, especially to the oil and gas sector, as it is much shorter than the Suez Canal.
The reduction of ice in the Arctic and design of new ice-breaking commercial vessels make the transportation of abundant Arctic natural energy resources commercially viable.
- By Kieran Mulvaney / Washington Post Magazine
September / August 2018
Via The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.
This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere.
One meteorologist described the loss of ice as "scary". Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic will withstand warming the longest.
The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as "the last ice area" because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet...
July / June / May 2018
Peruse scientifically ...
- Arctic Sea-ice retreat
- Short-, Mid-, Long-term
- https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/sea-ice-concentration-data-overview-comparison-table-and-graphs
- The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change
- A review, the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons is examined, including data sets over time based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and earth science reporting.
- National Academy of Sciences / Reporting that "[s]ince the satellite record began in 1978 … the yearly minimum Arctic sea ice extent (which occurs in early to mid-September) has decreased by more than 40% ... Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.
April 2018
What Extremely Warm Winters Mean for the Future of the Arctic
In an interview with Yale Environment 360, polar scientist Mark Serreze talks about the rapid changes he has witnessed over more than three decades of working in the Arctic and the future stability of the region if temperatures continue to climb.
- We're going to have an Arctic that, except for winter, you look at it from satellite and it's going to be a blue ocean. It will have lost its ice. Not just its sea ice, but a lot of the permafrost will be thawed, the snow cover season will be much shorter. The thing is, when you're thinking about the Arctic, the Arctic's soul is its ice. When you lose that ice, the Arctic loses its soul.
March 2018
"It was bigger than sending a man to the moon" -- Russia-US drilling in a Warming Arctic (2011)
- The big story, the 'follow the money' story, the story of oil/gas profits and global environmental costs
- Rosneft/Exxon's $500 billion deal, Rex Tillerson appointment as US Secretary of State, political-economic reality
Exxon is abandoning Russian projects
Via the Wall Street Journal -- Exxon-Russian Plans for drilling in Arctic ocean oil fields end -- temporarily.
- Withdrawal from joint venture brokered by Tillerson for now marks end of energy giant's hopes of drilling in Arctic ocean oil fields
The Texas oil giant said in a regulatory filing late Wednesday that it would walk away from the joint venture with state-controlled PAO Rosneft to seek oil in the ice-choked waters of the Kara Sea, a hard-fought deal signed in 2012 by the company's former chief executive, Rex Tillerson, now U.S. secretary of state.
Mr. Tillerson had touted the agreement as a breakthrough giving Exxon access to one of the world's great unexplored oil and gas basins. The company reportedly spent about $700 million to drill the first well, likely making it the most expensive ever. It struck oil, according to Rosneft...
Exxon declined to comment on the reasons for its decision. The company said it would formally begin to withdraw from the Rosneft joint ventures this year, taking a $200 million loss after taxes.
Rosneft said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies that it would support the return of Exxon to the projects in the future if it were legally possible.
Via Medium / "Follow the Money from the Rosneft/Exxon $500 billion deal"
- Igor Sechin described the ambition of the (2011 announced) Rosneft/Exxon project as "bigger than sending man to outer space or flying to the moon."
- "Experts say that this project, in terms of its ambitions, exceeds sending man into outer space or flying to the moon," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, an architect of the partnership, told a briefing for analysts in New York.
February 2018
How's the Weather?
Watch the Arctic Sea Ice seasonally shrink in this NASA time-lapse vid
Arctic temperatures are soaring
by Joe Romm
It was the warmest December on record in the Arctic, and 2018 has already set a string of records for lowest Arctic sea ice.
Unfortunately for America and the rest of the planet, the best science makes clear that what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. "We long ago anticipated that warming would be greatest in the Arctic owing to the vicious cycle of melting ice and warming oceans," climate scientist Mike Mann told ThinkProgress via email.
"But what we didn't anticipate is the way that changing wind patterns could accelerate that process — and along with it, a host of nasty associated surprises."
Surprises include "including slowing down of ocean currents, and whacky weather patterns in North America associated with weather extremes like droughts, wildfires, floods, and superstorms."
And those are in addition to the "nasty" associated impacts that scientists have long predicted would result from Arctic warming, such as faster melting of the land-based Greenland ice sheet, which in turn drives the speed up in sea level rise that scientists reported last week (Feb. 12, 2018)....
- John Abraham, professor of thermal sciences: "The temperatures in the Arctic are off the chart. This matters for the rest of us because this is the time of year when the Arctic ice should be growing. But it isn't growing like it should. So, this summer, there will be less ice and more open waters that will lead to more warming. We've started a feedback loop that we cannot stop."
January 2018
National Geographic / Pictures show Climate Change's dramatic Arctic impact
A photographer's work with Greenpeace has given him a front-row seat to twenty years of drastic change
December 2017
Ghosts of the Arctic (Vimeo/HD)
The Northwest Passage Opens: The Future of Ice-Free Arctic Commercialization Comes into View
The Arctic as we once knew it is no more
Scientists Thought an Alaskan Weather Station Was Broken...
It Was Just Climate Change
November/October 2017
As the Ice Retreats -- Oil/Gas Pressures in the North Accelerate
New Risks and Volatile Change
Listen to the serving Commandant of the US Coast Guard:
- Adm. Paul Zukunft, U.S. Coast Guard commandant / July 25, 2017: (WGBH Boston / National Public Radio Interview)
- ~ Arctic Militarization?
- ~ Surface ships in the Arctic, the US/Russian future on oil/gas resources...
- ~ The US is only Arctic nation that has not ratified the Convention of the Law of the Sea
- ~ EEZs / Exclusive Economic Zones / Off-shore extended continent shelf -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone
- ~ Territorial Waters -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
September / August 2017
> Russian tanker sails through Arctic without icebreaker for first time
Trump 'Reluctantly' Signs Sanctions Bill, US/Russia Arctic Gas/Oil Ventures Blocked
July / June 2017
Time to Drill?
Trump: Time to Open the Arctic to Drilling
US Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Deal
- In effect, action by the US Congress to continue/extend sanctions has the effect of blocking ExxonMobile-Rosneft Arctic drilling
- Exxon and Rosneft offshore exploration partnership plans to invest as much as $500 billion in developing Russia's vast energy reserves in the Arctic and Black seas
Head of the US House Committee on Science: Climate Change is "Beneficial"
Lamar Smith's New Line: It's time to Celebrate
WASHINGTON / HuffPost / July 24, 2017 — Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) — who has spent his career cozying up to fossil fuel interests, dismissing the threat of climate change and harassing federal climate scientists — is now arguing that pumping the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide is "beneficial" to global trade, crop production and the lushness of the planet.
Rather than buying into "hysteria," Americans should be celebrating the plus sides of a changing climate, Smith argues in an op-ed published July 24th in The Daily Signal, a news website published by the conservative Heritage Foundation.
June 8 / DC Law Firm's Russian Clients and New Presidential FBI Appointee
Exxon-Rosnoft, Tillerson-Putin, and a Sanctions Timeline from the Business Insider
"Roast the Arctic and you create a mess everywhere on Earth..."
- -- Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer
Arctic Could Be Ice Free by 2040
May 2017
Why Care About Black Carbon?
Soot / 'Black Carbon' in the Arctic
Rex Tillerson speaks of 'how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change'
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/arctic-is-changing-as-u-s-mulls-climate-policy-tillerson-says
Tillerson's appearance in Alaska at the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting comes two days after the White House said Trump would postpone a decision over whether to pull out of the landmark Paris climate accord until after he meets world leaders at the Group of Seven summit later this month.
"We are currently reviewing several important policies, including how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change," Tillerson said Thursday during his remarks to the Arctic Council, which also includes Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. "We're going to work to make the right decision for the United States."
Tillerson called for vigilance in protecting the Arctic's "fragile environment." The U.S. will continue to be an active member of the council," he said. "The Arctic region has been facing unprecedented change and challenges."
Initially (in their joint "Fairbanks Declaration" statement that accompanied the Council's meeting,) the U.S. objected to references to climate change, renewable energy and United Nations sustainability goals in an early draft of the joint statement, said Rene Soderman, senior adviser for Arctic cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. The council reworked the wording and convinced the U.S. to accept the changes.
"We were able to push the U.S. back as much as possible," Soderman said.
Dollars & the Arctic
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic: Summary for Policy-makers
The Arctic Transformed
The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth. Over the past 50 years, the Arctic's temperature has risen by more than twice the global average.
The Arctic Council is the leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination, and interaction among the Arctic States, Arctic indigenous peoples, and other Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues, in particular on issues of environmental protection and sustainable development in the Arctic. Established in 1996, the Arctic Council is composed of eight Member States (Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States). It also includes six organizations representing Arctic indigenous peoples.
April 2017
- Pushed by Currents, Billions of Pieces of Plastic Pollution from World's Oceans End Up in the Arctic
March 2017
On a tour on the Franz Josef Land archipelago, a sprawling collection of islands where the Russian military has recently built a new runway and worked to open a permanent base, Putin emphasised on Wednesday (March 29) the need to protect Russia's economic and security interests in the Arctic.
"Natural resources, which are of paramount importance for the Russian economy, are concentrated in this region," Putin said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.
Putin said current estimates put the value of the Arctic's mineral riches at $30 trillion.
- https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/01/knockin-russias-arctic-door
NASA's Earth Science News Team / Arctic sea ice appears to have reached on March 7 a record low wintertime maximum extent, according to scientists at NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. And on the opposite side of the planet, on March 3 sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites at the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere...
February 11, 2017 via CS Monitor — Records are shattering left and right across the Arctic, much like the ever-dwindling sea ice that once covered the entire Arctic Ocean.
First, the facts. January sea ice area has never been so small. In November, the coverage fell short of average by an area the size of the eastern half of the United States. Northeast Greenland had its warmest February day ever (by almost four degrees). The current heat wave brought temperatures near the North Pole to 50 degrees above average...
"We're still trying to figure out what is happening here," Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist with the Colorado-based Snow and Ice Data Center that compiles and reports the history of Arctic ice conditions.
"The ridiculously warm temperatures in the Arctic during October and November this year are off the charts over our 68 years of measurements," Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University...
Everyone agrees that "something is very, very wrong with the Arctic climate"...
"[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme," wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an "Crazy times in the Arctic" article for Earth magazine.
The number of freezing degree days is far lower than any other period on record.
Between 1980 and 2016 the amount of summer ice in cubic kilometers has decreased by an estimated 72 percent...
- January 19, 2017
Northern Routes Open as Ice Retreats
Exxon Mobil could tap huge Arctic assets if US - Russian relations thaw
- Former Exxon CEO and new US Sec of State Rex Tillerson meets with Russian President Putin
- during 2012 negotiations to move forward with joint oil/gas ventures described as historic
○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
February 2017
Ex-Chief of ExxonMobil Testifies Before US Congress
- President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said he believes the risks of climate change "could be serious enough that action should be taken," but he did not elaborate on what that action should be.
Tillerson testified that he formed his views "over about 20 years as an engineer and a scientist, understanding the evolution of the science." Ultimately, he said, he concluded that increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere are having an effect on the earth's climate. But he added, "Our ability to predict that effect is very limited," and precisely what actions nations should take "seems to be the largest area of debate existing in the public discourse."
December 2016
- US Department of Defense Report to Congress on Strategy to Protect United States National Security Interests in the Arctic Region
Geopolitics in the Arctic
- Russia and the United States are moving with force to claim fossil fuel exploration and production rights
- Canada, China, Norway and additional countries are look to join into the Arctic resource exploration
- A 'gas/oil' resource rush is imminent despite inherent dangers and impacts on global climate
- The critical, strategic demand continues for New Definitions of National and Global Security
- A preliminary assessment by the US Geological Survey suggests the Arctic seabed may hold as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves.
- By one USGS reported estimate, 400 billion barrels of oil might lie beneath the Arctic seabed.
- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-russia-vladimir-putin-norway-nato-clear-policy-arctic-bases-submarines-military-a7453581.html
- http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/exxon-mobil-could-tap-huge-arctic-assets-if-us-russian-relations-thaw.html
A Final Presidential Decision Re: Arctic Oil/Gas
December 19, 2016 / President Barack Obama prepares to leave office and prepares to block the sale of new offshore drilling rights in most of the U.S. Arctic and parts of the Atlantic. The executive order that could indefinitely restrict oil production there, according to people familiar with the decision.
Arctic Sea Ice at Record Lows / December 2016
- Not Good News, Arctic Sea Ice News
First Cruise Ship Crossing the Ice-Free Arctic Passage
- http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/15687-serenity-departs-for-northwest-passage-trip.html
- http://www.ktva.com/shows/frontiers/episode-74-crystal-serenitys-historic-voyage-951/ Arrival (September 16, 2016) in New York City ...
The beginning of cruise ships plying the formerly isolated, ice-bound region... prompting calls for a clamp-down to prevent Titanic-style accidents and the pollution of fragile eco-systems resulting from accidents -- and new gas/oil production.
Arctic nations begin to consider limiting the size of vessels and banning the use of heavy fuel oil in the region after first luxury cruise ship, Crystal Serenity, sailed through the Arctic from Alaska, across Canada's newly navigable Northwest Passage, to New York in the summer of 2016.
Next up, commercial shipping traffic, container ships ...
- http://container-news.com/arctic-ocean-shipping-routes-open-months/
Shipping industry report:
Sea-ice is in a committed, long-term decline as the polar north warms.
This year looks on course to be the second lowest in the satellite record. Researchers do not see this trend being reversed anytime soon.
"If we experience a 2-degree increase in global temperatures, we will get close to an Arctic that is effectively ice-free for part of the year; that's less than a million sq km of ice cover," said Reading University's Dr. Ed Hawkins.
"So, even if future emissions are consistent with the Paris agreement, it will of course mean shipping routes will be more open. Not every year, but more regularly than they are now."
"Open water vessels won't be hugging the Russian coast quite so much, and ice-strengthened ships will be going right over the pole," he told BBC News.
Saving time
The incentives are clear: if vessels can transit the Arctic, they will shave many days off their journey times between the Pacific and North Atlantic ports, and save fuel.
In addition, by plotting a more central course, they can avoid the fees they would otherwise be charged for going through Siberian waters.
The team has been looking at how the opportunities might evolve in the decades ahead.
The group used five prominent climate computer models and essentially trained them to better reflect the distribution of Arctic sea-ice as seen in current observations.
They then ran those models forward through the century under different emissions scenarios, to gauge where and how frequently shipping routes would become navigable.
"The Northwest Passage"
- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sanctions-russia-arctic-shipping-idUSKBN0KV17520150122
- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-arctic-shipping-idUSBRE92718420130308
- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-rosneft-idUSBRE83H0UE20120418
Oil major ExxonMobil (XOM.N) and Russia's Rosneft ROSN.M unveiled an offshore exploration partnership on Wednesday that could invest upward of $500 billion in developing Russia's vast energy reserves in the Arctic and Black Sea.
The deal, between the world's largest listed oil firm and the world's top oil producing nation, was the product of nearly a year of talks and came about despite a history of mutual distrust between Washington and Moscow dating back to the Cold War and recent difficulties for other Western firms in Russia.
"Experts say that this project, in terms of its ambitions, exceeds sending man into outer space or flying to the moon," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, a key architect of the partnership, told a briefing for analysts in New York.
Under the deal, signed in Moscow on Monday, Exxon and state-controlled Rosneft will seek to develop three fields in the Arctic with recoverable hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 85 billion barrels in oil-equivalent terms.
A final investment decision on the projects in the Kara Sea, in the centre of Russia's north coast, is expected in 2016-17, Rosneft said in a video presentation at the event, which was hosted by Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson and Rosneft President Eduard Khudainatov.
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/06/us-russia-political-tensions-arctic
- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-arctic-ice-supertankers
The Arctic & Geopolitics
Multiplying Global Risks
NYT / October 2005 / Revkin et al. / As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams of Treasure Abound
All told, one quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources lies in the Arctic, according to the United States Geological Survey...
Geopolitical Issues (a new "Great Game" via GreenPolicy's associated site, Strategic Demands)
Whole Earth / Planet Citizens
- "It's All Connected"
This category has the following 4 subcategories, out of 4 total.
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- [+] Earth Science from Space (17)
- [+] Greenland (4)
- [+] Strategic Demands (34)
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text:
A large number of Australians go through financial challenges during their lifetime, and this is largely regarded as a normal fluctuation in our finances. But what if you're unable to address these issues yourself, but at the same time, you don't want to declare bankruptcy?
Debt consolidation loans are a common solution that relieves people of financial pressure by consolidating all their current debts into one easy to manage loan that's payable monthly. On the contrary, debt agreements are another solution available to people in financial hardship, and this will be the focus of today's article.
What is a debt agreement?
A debt agreement is essentially a legal contract between you and your financial institutions which comprises Part IX of the Bankruptcy Act 1966. Under this agreement, your lenders allow you to repay a sum of money that you can manage, over an agreed time frame, to settle your debts.
It is necessary to note, however, that entering a debt agreement is an 'act of bankruptcy' and has long-term financial repercussions which may have a bearing on your capacity to obtain credit down the road. Consequently, it's strongly encouraged that people seek independent financial counselling before making this decision to make sure this is the best alternative for their financial circumstances and they clearly understand the implications of such agreements.
Prior to entering a debt agreement
There are certain things one should take into account prior to entering into a debt agreement. Speaking to your lenders about your financial position is always the first step you should take to try to settle your debts outside of a debt agreement. Have you talked to your lenders and asked them for more time to settle your debt? Have you already attempted to discuss a repayment plan or a smaller payment to settle your debt?
What kinds of debts are included in debt agreements?
Debt agreements are designed to assist low income earners who are not able to pay unsecured debts. Not all kinds of debt are covered in debt agreements, such as the following:
- Secured debt – such as home mortgages where the property can be sold to recoup money
- Joint debt – if you have a joint debt with your partner, financial institutions can request that your partner repays the full amount if you're unable to
- Offshore debt
- Other debts – for example debts incurred by fraud, court fines, student HECS or HELP debts, and child support
Are you entitled to enter a debt agreement?
To determine if you are qualified, simply visit the Australian Financial Security Authority's (AFSA) website (https://www.afsa.gov.au/insolvency/i-cant-pay-my-debts/am-i-eligible-debt-agreement).
If you determine that a debt agreement is the best option for you, a debt agreement administrator will help you with your debt agreement proposals, based on what you can afford, and send this proposal to each of your lenders. If your financial institutions accept the terms of your agreement, then your debt agreement will start, for instance, paying 85% of your debts to financial institutions over a 3-year time frame.
Downsides of debt agreements
As mentioned earlier, debt agreements are an 'act of bankruptcy' and as a result, there are serious repercussions one must keep in mind.
- If your financial institutions turn down your debt agreement proposal, they can make an application to the courts for involuntary bankruptcy
- Your name will appear on the National Personal Insolvency Index (NPII) for 5 years from the date of your agreement, or 2 years after the end date, whichever is later
- Your debt agreement will be listed on your credit report for up to five years, or longer in some situations
- You are legally required to alert a new lender of your debt agreement when acquiring a loan over $5,703.
- If you own an enterprise trading under another name, you are legally obliged to reveal your debt agreement to anyone who deals with your enterprise.
- If your job belongs to a regulated profession or a position of trust, it may affect your employment.
Choose your debt agreement administrator mindfully.
Debt agreement administrators play an important role in the results of your debt agreement, so always opt for an administrator that is registered with AFSA's list of registered debt agreement administrators. Prices also fluctuate widely between administrators, so always look at the payment terms before making any decisions.
If you're still unclear if a debt agreement is the right alternative for you, get in touch with Bankruptcy Experts on 1300 795 575 who can give you the right advice, the first time. To find out more, visit www.bankruptcyexperts.com.au.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
28 Apr, 2011, 01:25 ET
Disaster workers, meals, equipment and blood headed to area hardest hit.
WASHINGTON, April 28, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The American Red Cross is helping thousands of people after Wednesday's deadly tornadoes destroyed neighborhoods throughout the southern region of the country.
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20090108/RedCrossLOGO)
"Our thoughts and sympathies are with those who lost loved ones or have suffered through these deadly storms," said Charley Shimanski, senior vice president, Red Cross Disaster Services. "Red Cross disaster teams are working around the clock to help the thousands of people whose lives are turned upside down. More Red Cross assistance is on the way."
"Our top priority right now is to provide food and shelter to the thousands of people throughout the South and Midwest affected by these storms," Shimanski said, adding that the Red Cross is also distributing relief supplies and providing emotional support and basic health services to disaster survivors.
Hardest hit was Alabama, where Governor Robert Bentley has activated National Guard troops to help in the devastated areas. The Red Cross is sending disaster workers, materials, blood products and equipment into the state. Nearly 40 emergency response vehicles are on the way, along with 25,000 ready-to-eat meals. Red Cross Blood Services is moving hundreds of blood products into the area, and Red Cross nurses and mental health workers are being deployed to help people cope with the aftermath of this disaster.
More than 1,600 people sought refuge in 65 Red Cross shelters Wednesday night as the storms forced them from their homes. Red Cross shelters are open in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.
"Tornadoes and floods have devastated communities and uprooted families across many states, and the Red Cross is working hand-in-hand with our federal and community partners to get assistance to people in need and help them recover," Shimanski said.
More than half of the country has been affected by this continuous band of damaging weather, disrupting people's lives from North Dakota to the East Coast. In the last several weeks, Red Cross disaster workers have provided thousands of overnight stays in shelters, distributed thousands of clean-up and comfort kits and served hundreds of thousands of meals and snacks.
The Red Cross is able to respond quickly when emergencies happen with the help of corporations who are members of the organization's Annual Disaster Giving Program (ADGP). ADGP members pledge donations on an ongoing basis to allow the Red Cross to pre-position supplies and be ready to take immediate action when disasters occur.
ADGP members include Walmart, UPS, UnitedHealthcare, The TJX Companies, Inc., Target, State Street Foundation, State Farm, Southwest Airlines, Ryder Charitable Foundation, Northrup Grumman, Nationwide Insurance Foundation, Morgan Stanley, Merck, Lowe's Companies, Inc., Kraft Foods, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, John Deere Foundation, The Home Depot Foundation, GE Foundation, FedEx Corporation, Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Darden Restaurants, Inc, ConAgra Foods, Cisco Foundation, Aon, Altria and 3M.
The Red Cross depends on financial donations to help in times of disaster, both here in the United States and around the world. Those who want to help can make a donation to support American Red Cross Disaster Relief. To make a donation, visit www.redcross.org or call 1-800-RED-CROSS. Contributions may also be sent to local American Red Cross chapters or to the American Red Cross, P.O. Box 37243, Washington, DC 20013.
About the American Red Cross:
The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies nearly half of the nation's blood; teaches lifesaving skills; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a charitable organization — not a government agency — and depends on volunteers and the generosity of the American public to perform its mission. For more information, please visit www.redcross.org or join our blog at http://blog.redcross.org.
SOURCE American Red Cross


text:
Lyric Theatre.
The Lyric Theatre (3rd Ave N & 18th Street, Birmingham, AL) first opened its doors as a vaudeville house in 1914. The list of show business legends to perform on its stage include Sophie Tucker, George Jessel, Eddie Cantor, Will Rogers, Buster Keaton, Milton Berle, Mae West, Roy Rogers & Gene Autry. As was the case with so many grand theaters, changing times took its toll on the Lyric and it closed in the 1950's. It was briefly resurrected under different names in the early 1970's initially showing classical films, but its final days were as a porn theatre. It is presently owned and is being restored by Birmingham Landmarks, Inc. Donations are always welcome and much needed. Contact Cecil Whitmire, Director, 1817 Third Avenue North, B'ham, AL 35203, 205-252-2262 firstname.lastname@example.com More


text:
Rifle Is Beautiful (Dub)
Rifle Is Beautiful (Dub)
- Type:
- TV Series
- Status:
- Completed
- Genre:
- Comedy , Slice of Life , School
Rifle-shooting sports are competitive activities testing accuracy and precision using a rifle. In Japan, carrying firearms is prohibited, so most of the participants are members of the defense force. When the use of rifles using a light beam instead of real bullets as ammunition became common, rifle-shooting competitions became accessible to the younger population, giving way to school contests. First-year high school student and marksmanship enthusiast Hikari Kokura has just transferred to Chidori High School. She tries to join the club of her choice, but finds out that the club no longer exists due to the low popularity of the sport. Distraught, she tries to restore the club and somehow manages to recruit three other members: her childhood friend Izumi Shibusawa, the half-Russian Erika Meinohama, and the stoic Yukio Igarashi. This marks the beginning of the Chidori Rifle-Shooting Club, who have only one goal—to compete on the national stage!
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text:
This is an opinion piece I wrote for a new planned journal on open computational research that for one reason or another failed to take off. Hopefully the journal will be resurrected or another will take its place since this is an important topic. Simulation and modeling have now become robust and frequent paradigms in almost every scientific endeavor and their continued relevance and use will depend on holding computational results to the same standards that are routinely applied to theoretical and experimental work. My piece tries to ask how computational research can be communicated most effectively and honestly in an age of open scientific publishing. Feedback will be most welcome since this is necessarily going to be a community endeavor.
New ways of doing science demand new standards
In the last three decades or so, along with theory and experiment, modeling and simulation have become enshrined as the third leg in the methodology of science[1]. Although not as hallowed in its history as theory and experiment, modeling is now widely used to complement – and occasionally supplement – the results of theoretical and experimental investigations. As science has become both more complex and more multidisciplinary, it has been essential to resort to models to explain, understand and predict. Many of the most pressing and exciting problems in modern science, from understanding the brain to simulating biological networks to mapping the large-scale structure of the cosmos, involve complex, multifactorial phenomena that are not amenable to first-principles solutions. Analyzing such problems entails a judicious mix of rigorous theorizing, statistical analysis and empirical guesswork, so it is inevitable that model building will play an increasingly important role in deciphering the workings of these real-world physical, biological and engineered systems.
As with any philosophy of doing science, modeling has to conform to the time-honored principles and constraints that have contributed to modern science's enormous growth and practical utility over the last five hundred years or so. Foremost among these constraints is the accurate and reproducible communication of results which lies at the foundation of scientific inquiry. Accuracy is essential for understanding the mechanistic workings of a particular method and its causal connections to the observed result. Reproducibility is at the heart of the scientific method, a basic requirement without which it becomes impossible to trust and validate any scientific study. As modeling and simulation have become mainstays of modern scientific research, they have brought with them unique challenges pertaining to both these methodological aspects.
Galileo provided an early and striking instance of reproducibility in modern science when he constructed his telescope and made groundbreaking observations of the moons of Jupiter[2]. As the story goes, he painstakingly made several copies of the instrument and gave them to the crowned heads of Europe so that they too could see what he saw. In Galileo's work we witness two cardinal aspects of reproducibility. One is the duplication of the instrument of research; the other is the duplication of the results themselves, in this case in the form of observations.
Both these metaphors lend themselves well to the demands for accuracy and reproducibility in simulation techniques. The instrumental analog of modeling would be the precise form of the hardware and software used for the study. The observational analog would be the specific method of gathering, processing and presenting the data so that it appears the same to every observer. If we are to accurately reproduce and verify the results of modeling, we need to have standards for addressing both these aspects of data generation, analysis and presentation. Unfortunately, premier journals still have to institute standard policies for code submission. Science for instance requires its authors to supply the actual code[3] while Nature requires only "a description detailed enough to allow others to write their own code to do similar analysis"[4] which can be a recipe for ambiguity. Ironically, as the use of simulation software has proliferated through graphical user interfaces and ease of operation, it has become all too easy for non-expert users to treat the software as a black box and not worry about communicating under-the-hood details. The increasing availability of open-source programs and the undoubtedly propitious employment of simulation by experimentalists makes the matter of having standards and venues for the communication of computational results a particularly urgent one.
Even subtle changes in simulation protocols need to be tracked
First and foremost in this endeavor is a requirement for stating as many details of the hardware and software as possible. An anecdote from my own field of computational chemistry illustrates the reasons for doing this. A past research advisor of mine wanted to replicate a modeling study done with a particularly interesting molecule so he contacted the scientist who had originally performed the study and processed the system according to the former's protocol. He appropriately adjusted the parameters and ran the experiment. To his surprise he got a very different result. He repeated the protocol several times but consistently saw the wrong result. Finally he called up the original researcher. The two went over the protocol a few times and finally realized that the problem lay in a minor but overlooked detail - the two scientists were using slightly different versions of the modeling software. This wasn't even a new version, just an update, but for some reason it was enough to significantly change the results.
The anecdote clearly demonstrates a need for making clear every aspect of the software as well as its implementation. This includes versions, updates, patches, operating system, input parameters, 'pre-processing' steps and most crucially, expert tweaking. This last aspect is a crucial one and deserves some enumeration. Modeling can be as much of an art as a science. Expert modelers rarely use software in a default, out-of-the-box incarnation. Instead virtually every scientist doing computation tweaks and massages the program to varying extents in order to customize it for the specific system under consideration. Much of this tweaking is based on expert knowledge, experience and intuition and can consist of multiple fixes, including the incorporation of experimental data, the transformation of the algorithm into one used for a similar system in the past, additional parameterization of parts of the algorithm to make it more conducive for the system under consideration and a hodgepodge of other non-standard and often counterintuitive modifications. At least a few of these are inspired by guesswork and intuition, qualities which have always been important players in scientific success. But most tweaks of this kind are never going to be apparent in the original code and not even in its comments.
How then could we incorporate these essential but rather intangible parts of the scientific process into the communication of research results? A partial solution would be to make log files available along with the original code and software specifications. Some commercial programs already have such facilities built into their user interfaces. The drug discovery modeling suite from Schrodinger[5] for instance has, in addition to its usual process log files, a command script editor which keeps track of all the manipulations and minor tweaks that the user performs in the environment of the global user interface. Since multiple software applications can be accessed from this interface, the process valuably keeps track of manipulations both within and across different modules. The command script can in turn be run by anyone with access to the software, and if included with a list of inputs, it should faithfully reproduce the original algorithm. Having researchers upload such scripts along with the original code will allow a more or less accurate duplication of the protocol, compared to instructions in the English language. In a more general sense, there could also be 'meta-scripts' which keeps track of all software and hardware details and user manipulations. Such scripts would ideally encapsulate a comprehensive recipe for the entirety of the simulation protocol. In the absence of such global log files, insisting on application-specific log files would be a good start.
Just like software, hardware should also be explicitly described. This is especially true these days when many computations are run on parallel, distributed and cloud-based systems which may well present a varying mix of hardware configurations. An accurate representation of hardware should state details about processors, memory, graphic cards, pre-installed operating systems and monitors and should ideally also include vendor names. Naturally, the amount of detail would depend on the nature of a particular study. For instance, a GPU-intensive study would have to list as many details of the graphic processing card as possible, while a more general study may not be constrained by this requirement. Ultimately, although it would not be possible for every reader to duplicate all hardware details, even knowing that one is using a different configuration alerts one to possible differences in output. What would truly be useful however would be to categorize these differences as a possible guide to future simulations, and this will not be possible until controlled experiments are run in which the results from two simulations differing only in their hardware usage are compared. For a journal specializing in open computational research, there could be a separate section (perhaps online) where users can document interesting differences in results stemming from different hardware architecture.
A particularly valuable piece of information for duplication of computational studies would be the provision of positive and negative controls. Such controls have been a longstanding requirement for publication, especially in the biological community[6] and more generally in experimental science, but the computational community doesn't seem to have adopted them on a large scale. In case of computational studies, running the algorithm in question on a test system would provide confidence in the integrity of the protocol. The test system could be a well-studied one for which an accurate answer is known - for instance by way of experiment – and has been replicated several times. Any new algorithm that fails to provide this answer would be suspect. Then, even if the real system described in a paper cannot be exactly duplicated by another worker either because of its complexity or due to lack of resources, he or she could have confidence in the workings of the procedure by duplicating its success on the robust test system which would serve as a control. A test system as a negative control would serve a similar purpose.
Good models should be explicitly tagged and showcased.
Cataloging all this information is a challenge in itself, and a possible way to do it would be to build a central repository of code that contains a variety of different protocols along with their attendant parameters. As a recent article in Science suggests, this repository could be called 'CodeMedCentral'[7]. Just as PubMedCentral provides the details of scientific publications, CodeMedCentral could provide supporting software and hardware details for every published study. Carefully annotating the website and categorizing information on it would be important for accurate reproduction of models. The Science article also suggests tagging articles with a qualifier that indicates the degree of confidence in the study based on whether it was successfully reproduced or not. Studies which have been successfully duplicated could be tagged with a 'R' qualifier. This policy has already been fruitfully adopted by the journal Biostatistics[8], which indicates that the possible stigma of having your article not being tagged is not dissuading eager scientists from publishing their articles in the journal, preferably with an 'R' stamp. At the very least, such categorizing of articles according to the extent of code submission and validation will allow researchers to realistically judge the integrity of the study, especially in comparison studies.
We would be remiss in discussing standards for code distribution and reproduction without addressing the problem of proprietary code. Depending on the context, it may or may not be possible to divulge all details of the input and the precise methods of analysis. This is especially the case in industries like the pharmaceutical and aerospace industries. While the constraints on proprietary code inevitably make accurate data duplication difficult, even proprietary data can be amenable to partial reproducibility. In a cheminformatics study for instance, molecular structures which are proprietary could be encoded into special organization-specific formats that are hard to decode. One could still run a set of modeling protocols on this cryptic data set and generate statistics without revealing the identity of the structures. The duplication of the statistics would provide confidence in the integrity of the study. Naturally there will have to be safeguards against the misuse of any such evaluation but they may not be very hard to implement.
Presentation, presentation, presentation.
As important as the accurate description of software and hardware is, it will fail without a uniform standard for the analysis and presentation of data. This is a problem that typically plagues every field at its conception, when different researchers choose to present the results of their study using their favorite statistical technique, data processing software and graphical depiction. Such a presentation may hide as much detail as it reveals since it often relegates outliers, failed results and inherent biases to the side. Not only does this wide variability in analysis and reporting mislead but it also crucially impedes the comparison and meta-analysis of different studies, making it very difficult to vindicate successful techniques and discard unsuccessful ones. What is paramount is the establishment and reporting of standard benchmarks and metrics. A cogent example is provided from the field of virtual screening wherein algorithms are tested for their ability to identify potentially valuable new drug candidates[9]. The confusion arising from the lack of common protocols for setting up test systems and running the relevant algorithms on them was compounded by the dissimilar metrics used for assessment, some of which artificially inflated the significance of the results. It is only in the last few years that we have seen the proposal and use of careful benchmarks for both setting up and assessing virtual screening studies using unbiased statistical metrics[10],[11].
It goes without saying that an accurate description of the system under consideration and the methods used for analysis, including a proper presentation of statistical software, methods and error bars, is key to faithful reproduction of the study. In case of statistics-heavy modeling, the results should ideally also include an estimation of model uncertainty, expressed through figures establishing the numerical accuracy of estimates, sensitivity of the model to boundary conditions, confidence intervals etc. The establishment of these standard metrics for reporting studies cannot be overemphasized; without them it would be inherently impossible to separate the true scientific wheat from the chaff of illusory success.
Ultimately the need for making computational details available is no different from the need from making any other theoretical or experimental details available. Modeling and simulation are undoubtedly going to play an increasingly important role in scientific research. Gaining an accurate idea of their pitfalls and promises will be paramount for accurately assessing their place in the pantheon of future scientific inquiry. Reproducibility will illuminate the path.
Acknowledgements: The author wishes to thank Nathan Walsh for helpful discussion.
[1] Winsburg, E. "Science in the Age of Computer Simulation", 2010, University of Chicago Press
[2] Heilbron, J. L. "Galileo", 2010, Oxford University Press
[3] Hanson, B.; Sugden, A.; Alberts, B. Science, 2011, 331, 649
[4] Nature, 2011, 470, 305
[5] http://www.schrodinger.com/products/14/12/
[6] Glass, D. J. "Experimental Design for Biologists", 2006, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
[7] Peng, R. Science, 2011, 334, 1226
[9] Shoichet, B. K. Nature, 2004, 432, 862
[10] Hawkins, P. C. D.; Warren, G.; Skillman, A. G.; Nicholls, A. J. Comput. Aided Mol. Des. 2008, 22, 179
[11] Irwin, J. J. J. Comput. Aided Mol. Des. 2008, 22, 193


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Russia and Cuba have agreed on returning a Soviet intelligence facility in Lourdes near Havana to Russia for use, Kommersant business daily wrote Wednesday.
The USSR's largest electronic intelligence facility allowed it to control radio and telephone connections over a large territory of the "potential enemy." Moscow gave it up in 2001, satisfying a request from Washington. But the United States "did not appreciate our 'gesture of goodwill,'" one of the paper's sources said.
Trying to strengthen level of ground intelligence, Moscow began talks with Havana about taking back the facility several years ago but has become more active since the beginning of the year, the paper's sources said. The issue was resolved within months and was finalized during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Cuba last week.
Russia does not plan to restore the center to its previous capacity, and is still working out the details and costs of the restoration.
Last week, Putin signed a law writing off 90 percent of Cuba's $32 billion Soviet-era debt to Russia ahead of his official visit to Latin America, with the first stop in Cuba.
Cuba remains one of Russia's key allies in the region, with trade between the two nations topping $200 million last year.


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A federal judge has refused a state request to halt same-sex marriages in Wisconsin, where hundreds of gay couples have tied the knot since the judge struck down the state's ban late last week as unconstitutional.
U.S. District Judge Barbara Crabb denied the request Monday from Wisconsin Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, who has appealed her decision and asked that weddings be halted to reduce confusion.
Hundreds of gay couples have married in Wisconsin's two most populous counties, Milwaukee and Dane, home to the state capital, Madison, since Crabb's ruling, while clerks in many other counties have not issued licenses.
Van Hollen had sought the stay from Crabb on Friday and on Monday asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit to halt gay marriages in Wisconsin until appeals are concluded.
Until then, Van Hollen said in a statement, Wisconsin's ban on gay marriage remains in effect and state and local officials are under a continuing duty to follow the marriage law unless and until the court enjoins that law.
Crabb's rulings have not addressed directly whether county clerks may issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in the interim.
"I understand defendants' concern that some county clerks have been issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples since I issued the June 6 decision, but that is not a result of an injunction by this court," Crabb wrote.
More than 280 marriage licenses were issued to gay couples on Friday and Saturday in Milwaukee and Dane counties after Crabb ruled the ban unconstitutional. A steady stream of couples sought licenses Monday in counties around the state.
"His (Van Hollen's) appeal of this case is a colossal waste of taxpayer dollars and I urge him to reconsider," Dane County Executive Joe Parisi said in a statement.
Dane County had issued at least 20 marriage licenses to gay couples on Monday by mid afternoon and planned to continue, Dane County Clerk Scott McDonell said after Crabb's latest ruling.
The office of Milwaukee County Clerk Joe Czarnezki said it had issued more than 35 marriage licenses to gay couples Monday.
Crabb's ruling was the latest in a string of decisions by federal judges who have struck down gay marriage bans in a number of states.
Challenges to state bans gathered momentum last June when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down parts of the federal Defense of Marriage Act, ruling that legally married same-sex couples were eligible for federal benefits.
Not including Wisconsin, same-sex marriage is now legal in 19 states plus the District of Columbia. That number would jump sharply if federal court rulings striking down bans in several states are upheld on appeal.