text:
October 19, 2011
Summary of Commentary on
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and based on information collected on or before October 7, 2011. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that overall economic activity continued to expand in September, although many Districts described the pace of growth as "modest" or "slight" and contacts generally noted weaker or less certain outlooks for business conditions. The reports suggest that consumer spending was up slightly in most Districts, with auto sales and tourism leading the way in several of them. Business spending increased somewhat, particularly for construction and mining equipment and auto dealer inventories, but many Districts noted restraint in hiring and capital spending plans. By sector, manufacturing and transportation activity was reported to have increased on balance. A few Districts also reported slight improvements in construction and real estate activity; nonetheless, overall conditions for both residential and commercial real estate remained weak. Districts reporting on nonfinancial services cited mixed results with activity varying widely by industry. Loan demand by and large moved lower, with the exception of an increase in mortgage refinancing in many Districts. Crop conditions at harvest were generally less favorable than a year ago. In contrast, energy and mining activity continued to strengthen in several Districts, with the exception of some storm-related slowdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Cost pressures eased in the majority of Districts, though there was some further pass-through of earlier increases to downstream prices. Wage pressures remained subdued outside of a few exceptions in which firms noted having difficulty finding appropriately skilled workers.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Tourism was generally higher in those Districts reporting on the sector. Contacts in New York noted that, despite the negative impact of Hurricane Irene, Broadway and hotel revenues continued to rise. Richmond reported substantial damage from Hurricane Irene to some tourist destinations that were subsequently forced to close for repairs, but tourism remained vibrant in other areas. Boston, Atlanta, and Minneapolis also cited increases in tourism, with hospitality contacts in Atlanta expecting a robust holiday season. Tourism results were mixed across various destinations in the San Francisco district.
Business Spending
Nonfinancial Services
Manufacturing and Transportation
Real Estate and Construction
Banking and Finance
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Activity in energy-producing sectors strengthened in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Atlanta reported a decrease in off-shore operations in the Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical Storm Lee. Cleveland and Atlanta also anticipated increased capital investments in oil and gas production, since new technology has lowered costs and boosted output. Contacts in Minneapolis reported plans for expanded wind generation of electricity. Mining activity in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts was strong.
Employment, Wages, and Prices
Most Districts reported that wage pressures remained subdued. Exceptions were generally for workers with specialized skills or in areas where firms were having difficulty finding workers. For instance, Atlanta and San Francisco cited wage gains for workers with specialized skills, such as in information technology, Minneapolis reported wage increases in the energy industry, and Cleveland noted higher wages for truck drivers. In addition, contacts in Minneapolis and Cleveland noted increases in non-wage costs such as healthcare. Most other cost pressures moderated in September. Although Kansas City and San Francisco reported increases in raw material costs, most Districts reported a general decline in commodity prices, including prices of oil and industrial metals. Many Districts indicated that there continued to be some further pass-through of past increases to wholesale prices. Though retail contacts noted a hesitation to increase prices with demand still weak, many Districts reported increased pass-through of costs in the retail sector, particularly for food and cotton-based goods.
First District--Boston
Business contacts in the First District mostly continue to see demand growth, but many are toning down their outlooks. Contacted retailers' year-over-year percentage sales changes range from low single-digit declines to high single-digit increases. Responses from manufacturers are mixed, but most continue to report revenue growth. Advertising and consulting firms generally cite strong results, but note a slowdown in the pace. Commercial and residential real estate markets remain soft. Net hiring remains very limited except for advertising and consulting; even there, contacts see restrained hiring going forward. Price pressures continue to ease; some commodity prices are down and many firms are holding their own prices steady. Contacts in several sectors cite uncertainty as a key factor restraining demand.
Retail and Tourism
The travel and tourism sector reports strength despite the generally downbeat global economic climate. Within the sector, leisure travel is slowing, while domestic and international business travel remains 5 percent to 7 percent higher than in 2010. September growth slowed to 4 percent from the 5 percent to 7 percent year-over-year gains seen earlier in 2011. Advance hotel bookings for 2012:Q1 are up. The industry is expecting positive but slower growth in 2012.
Manufacturing and Related Services
Hiring at contacted manufacturers is limited to replacing workers who depart through retirement and/or attrition. A semiconductor firm says it is implementing a hiring freeze because incoming orders for 2012 have dropped sharply in recent weeks, especially from China. A business products firm continues to reduce headcount as part of a strategic restructuring plan and the manufacturer with sales tied heavily to residential investment is also reducing its workforce for the first time since 2009. A repeated theme from the majority of contacts is that they are implementing changes to keep costs low and/or reduce operating expenses. A couple of firms note that merit increases in 2012 will likely be lower than in 2011, while another firm plans to restructure its healthcare benefits to shift more of the costs to employees without offsetting pay increases.
There are fewer reports of input price pressures from manufacturers than in recent months, even though prices for some food-related commodities such as milk remain high. In fact, copper prices have dropped substantially in the last month or so and other precious metals prices have also declined; oil prices are also lower. Thus some manufacturers are facing noticeably lower costs; for the most part, they say they are waiting to see if commodity prices stay lower before adjusting their selling prices. More generally, contacted firms say their selling prices remain stable, although they are raising prices "as needed," as indicated in previous reports. Some manufacturers note, however, that consumers are currently reluctant to spend on discretionary items, so they are offering promotions to partially offset price increases and/or promote their products so as not to lose customers to lower cost competitors.
Despite the uncertain economic environment, contacted manufacturers continue to look for worthwhile investment opportunities, and some have made recent acquisitions. To the extent that manufacturers are holding back on investment, they say it is not because of a lack of credit or insufficient cash holdings. Overall, firms are less optimistic about business conditions heading into 2012 than they were in the last round. Many firms are shifting any pickup in demand they previously anticipated for 2012 forward to 2013.
Selected Business Services
Contacts say they are generally raising prices about 3 percent to 5 percent to cover cost increases and maintain profit margins. Two strategic consulting contacts, however, made bigger price changes: one firm dropped prices by 10 percent to compete with cheaper foreign firms, primarily in India, while the other raised prices 10 percent to keep up with compensation costs. Hiring activity is mixed, with firms spread along the spectrum from a 25 percent addition to a 10 percent layoff. Nearly all contacts, however, say hiring is likely to be restrained or flat for the foreseeable future.
For the most part, contacts have revised their expectations downward since the last conversation in July. Although many still expect business conditions and profitability to remain strong, they note that they are in a highly pro-cyclical industry and economic indicators point towards a pessimistic outlook. The one exception is firms that primarily provide services to the financial industry, who expect strong growth as financial firms continue to deal with the aftermath of the financial crisis and regulatory overhaul. Several contacts say they believe the increasing prospect of continued political stalemate in Washington is having serious deleterious effects on both their firms and the economy as a whole.
Commercial Real Estate
Residential Real Estate
Forecasts for the remainder of the year remain bleak, with contacts anticipating 2011 sales will fall short of last year's total. Respondents do not expect a significant improvement in residential real estate within the next one to two years.
Second District--New York
Economic growth in the Second District has remained modest since the last report, though there have been some signs of improvement in the labor market. Manufacturers report some further deterioration in their assessment of overall business conditions but note that orders, shipments and employment levels have been stable. Consumer spending, on the other hand, has been comparatively robust, despite low levels of consumer confidence: auto dealers report brisk business in August and September, non-auto retail contacts report that sales have been on or ahead of plan, and tourism activity has remained strong. Commercial real estate markets have been mixed but, on balance, slightly stronger since the last report. Home sales have been mixed, with scattered signs of a pickup, while the rental market has continued to strengthen. New home construction remains stalled, aside from rental apartments. There has been substantial new hotel development in Manhattan. Conditions in New York City's key securities industry have weakened noticeably. Finally, bankers report a pickup in demand for residential mortgage loans (largely refinancing), a slight increase in demand for non-residential mortgages, some easing in credit standards for business loans, and little change in delinquency rates.
Consumer Spending
Auto dealers in upstate New York report that sales picked up since the last report, helped by a replenishment of their inventories, as disruptions from the tsunami in Japan earlier this year dissipated. Buffalo-area dealers estimate that sales of new vehicles were up 5-10 percent from a year ago in both August and September. Rochester-area dealers indicate year-over-year sales gains of 11 percent in August and in the range of 10-15 percent for September. Auto dealers in both areas continue to report strong sales of used cars, with persistently lean inventories driving up prices. Dealers' service and parts departments also report sturdy business. Auto-industry contacts describe both retail and wholesale credit conditions as "fine".
Consumer confidence remains at depressed levels. The Conference Board reports that consumer confidence among residents of the Middle Atlantic states (NY, NJ, PA) fell in August and edged down further in September. Siena College reports that consumer confidence fell across most of New York State in the third quarter, with the steepest declines seen in New York City and the mid-Hudson Valley; only the Albany region saw an increase in confidence. Tourism activity in New York City has shown continued strength since the last report. Broadway theaters report that, aside from a brief swoon in business in late August due to Hurricane Irene, attendance has been fairly strong and roughly on par with a year earlier. Moreover, revenues for the full month of September were up nearly 10 percent from a year earlier, despite fewer than usual Broadway shows opening this fall. Manhattan hotels report that revenue per room was up roughly 6 percent from a year ago in both August and September, despite the hurricane. Most of this increase reflects higher room rates, as occupancy rates were little changed. Nevertheless, this implies a sizeable rise in tourism, because there are 6-7 percent more hotel rooms in Manhattan than a year ago.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial real estate markets have been mixed since the last report. In New York City and metropolitan Buffalo, office vacancy rates declined in the third quarter, while rents moved up. However, vacancy rates rose in Westchester and Fairfield counties and were little changed across other parts of the District, while asking rents were generally down modestly. The market for industrial and warehouse space has not changed noticeably, except in metropolitan Albany and northern New Jersey, where asking rents are down moderately from a year ago. New office construction and development remains sluggish, but a number of major hotel development projects have been announced recently or are already underway in New York City.
Other Business Activity
Manufacturing firms across New York State indicate that their assessment of general business conditions has deteriorated further since the last report, although they note that orders and shipments have held steady. Respondents in that sector anticipate only modest improvement in business conditions and activity in the months ahead. Manufacturers also note that input price pressures have moderated somewhat and that selling prices have remained essentially stable.
Financial Developments
Third District--Philadelphia
Business activity in the Third District has remained mixed, with more positive sectors than negative ones compared with the previous Beige Book. In late August and early September, Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee left dozens of people injured or dead, damaged or destroyed thousands of homes, and cost hundreds of millions of dollars in disruption and damage throughout much of the Third District. Since the last Beige Book, manufacturing activity has declined further, but at a slower rate. Retailers reported flat to slightly down year-over-year sales. Motor vehicle dealers provided a bright spot with stronger year-over-year sales. Third District banks have reported little overall change in loan volume outstanding since the last Beige Book. On balance, residential real estate and construction activity have been slightly stronger since the last Beige Book, which was released soon after the debt-ceiling turmoil. Commercial real estate contacts have continued to report steady to slightly improved market conditions in most parts of the Third District. Service-sector firms reported generally flat to modest growth. Price pressures have moderated for many sectors but continue to strain profit margins.
Most Third District business contacts had already lowered their expectations over the past few months--projecting slow to flat growth through year-end. Ongoing uncertainty since the previous Beige Book has not significantly altered their outlook. Manufacturers still expect a modest rise in shipments and orders during the next six months. Retailers are hopeful for stronger sales, and auto dealers are uncertain; both have lean inventory plans. Most banking and residential real estate contacts had lowered their expectations before the last Beige Book. Commercial real estate contacts and service-sector firms continue to plan for slow growth; however, uncertainty has increased.
Real Estate and Construction
Caution guides the commercial and industrial real estate sector as well, but the sector is less susceptible to the news cycle. Since the last Beige Book, continued slow growth has been observed, with select markets beginning to tighten. In those markets, vacancy rates tend to drop, rents rise, and concessions disappear. Investor interest has picked up, but deals remain difficult to close. New construction or renovation plans are mostly limited to institutional, life sciences, multifamily, and warehousing sectors in selected markets.
Prices and Wages
Fourth District--Cleveland
Economic activity in the Fourth District increased slowly during the past six weeks. Manufacturers reported stable production but a small decline in new orders and backlogs. Energy companies noted little change in output. Freight transport volume trended slightly higher. Retail sales rose slightly, whereas new-car purchases were reported as mixed. Home builders are increasingly turning to multi-family development as a revenue source, and nonresidential contractors struggled to rebuild their backlogs. The demand for business credit continued to slowly improve, while consumer loan demand was generally weak.
The pace of hiring seen earlier in the third quarter has diminished, especially in the manufacturing and energy sectors. Staffing-firm representatives reported a drop-off in the number of new job openings, with vacancies concentrated in technical occupations and healthcare. Wage pressures are contained. Prices for materials used by manufacturers and building contractors were fairly stable or fell slightly.
Manufacturers remain committed to their capital spending plans for 2011; however, a few of our contacts indicated that they are considering pulling back on spending for 2012. Capacity utilization remains below normal at most factories, while steel executives reported that their utilization rates were at or near normal levels. Inventories are in line with sales. Reports on raw materials show that prices were stable or declined slightly. Nonetheless, several manufacturers announced modest price increases that will go into effect early in the fourth quarter. Expectations for rising steel prices were short-lived. Hiring has diminished since our last report. Manufacturers who have added to payrolls reported that it was difficult to recruit highly skilled workers. Wage pressures are contained.
Activity in nonresidential construction for small to medium-size builders remained fairly weak, with much of their work limited to expansions and lower-budget projects. However, the number of inquiries has picked up slightly since our last report. The biggest challenge facing builders at this time is adding backlog. Construction contracts were primarily with health care providers and manufacturers, while a decline was seen in government-funded projects. Looking forward, our contacts expect modest growth at best during the next six months. Building material prices held steady. One builder mentioned that his firm recently purchased construction equipment for the first time since 2007. Construction payrolls and wages were stable.
Consumer Spending
Reports on new-vehicle sales from mid-August through late September were mixed. On a year-over-year basis, vehicle purchases improved for most of our contacts, with several noting double-digit increases. Demand for fuel-efficient, less-expensive cars continued to grow, although the market for crossover vehicles remains fairly strong. Inventories are rebuilding, especially for Japanese cars, but remain below what many dealers would like. Dealers are cautious in their outlook due to uncertainty about the economy and the availability of vehicles that consumers want to buy. Demand for used cars is steady but down slightly from earlier in the year. We heard a few reports of some easing in credit restrictions, while banks and credit unions continued to price loans very competitively. Many dealers are in the process of initiating factory-mandated programs for showroom upgrades and reimaging. The pickup in dealer hiring that we saw a couple of months ago has diminished. The few dealers who are looking to hire report that it is difficult to find qualified candidates.
Fifth District--Richmond
Business conditions in the Fifth District were either weak or weakening in most sectors since our last report. Manufacturing activity contracted moderately in September, after pulling back markedly in August. Retail sales also softened. In addition, activity at non-retail services firms began to decline. Both residential and commercial real estate activity remained near the weak levels seen in recent months. However, in banking, a moderate improvement in commercial lending offset weakness in mortgage lending. Tourism remained strong overall. District labor markets had undertones of weakness, with temp services reporting problems finding qualified workers. Price pressures moderated since our last assessment.
Port activity has advanced at a slower-than-expected pace in recent months. Several analysts stated that exports continued to outpace imports, but characterized both as somewhat soft during the current peak season. An official noted that major retailers were not anxious to build inventory going into the big holiday season and were waiting for an improvement in consumer spending before increasing their import orders. Another port official reported that ocean carriers had also become less optimistic about cargo shipments over the remainder of the year. Auto exports were flat in recent months, according to one analyst, but auto imports were starting to increase as dealers began stocking for the new model year. Exports of coal and other commodities continued to do exceptionally well.
Real Estate
Commercial real estate and construction activity was little changed from weak levels that have persisted throughout much of this year. Many commercial Realtors described the market as "spotty," with gains one week being offset by declines the next. Warehouse leasing activity fell, due to soft manufacturing sales and production. A Realtor in Virginia cited modest improvements in leasing by small industrial clients who were expanding, but added that he had to offer lower rents to retain several office tenants. An agent covering the Carolinas noted that "leases were getting done," but problems obtaining financing were holding back many deals. A South Carolina Realtor described the office market as mixed, but noted that gains were limited to the high end of the market. On the construction side, several contractors also described business as slow-paced. A contractor in Maryland stated that a slight increase in building renovations during June and July ended in August. Several contractors reported an uptick in government-related projects, while private work continued to decline.
Labor Markets
Sixth District--Atlanta
Business contacts in the Sixth District indicated that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace in September and early October. Merchants noted that retail sales decelerated slightly compared with the previous month, although auto sales continued to advance at a solid pace. Tourism activity remained robust throughout most of the District. Homebuilders and Real Estate brokers reported that new and existing home sales remained weak and home prices continued to decline. Commercial developers indicated that construction activity increased moderately compared with weak year-ago levels, and brokers noted an increase in relocation activity. Manufacturers reported a modest decline in production and new orders. Weakness in loan demand persisted, according to banking contacts as both consumers and businesses refrained from borrowing. Hiring for permanent positions remained very subdued across most sectors. Pricing pressures moderated somewhat as input costs declined or leveled off.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Many retail contacts planned to raise prices, expecting to retract the increases if customers pushed back. Merchants continued to aggressively discount products to draw in traffic and have found it difficult to end such practices because of concern over losing customers.
Leisure and business travel remained strong in the District. Occupancy rates continued to improve, and both airport and cruise traffic were up. International visitors bolstered activity, mainly in Florida. Group bookings and theme park attendance were up in most areas. Overall, hospitality contacts expect a vibrant holiday season.
Real Estate and Construction
Reports from District builders indicated that new home sales and construction activity were largely unchanged in September and were slightly ahead of weak levels from a year ago. Home builders continued to report that new home prices were largely flat compared with the previous month and a year ago. Overall, construction and new home sales growth are expected to be similar to weak year-ago levels over the next several months.
Half of District commercial contractors polled reported that construction activity in September exceeded the first half of the year, while just under one-third signaled that activity was weaker. Backlogs reportedly increased modestly as well. The outlook among contractors remained weak as most anticipated commercial development to be flat or down on a year-over-year basis for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012. Commercial brokers remarked that market dynamics continued to largely favor tenants in the District, particularly in the retail sector. However, some reports indicated that available office space had declined, and with little new office development underway, this could result in an increase in rental rates. An opposing view shared by some contacts was that smaller blocks of office space remained abundant on a sub-lease basis from tenants that have downsized, but are still paying for unused space. Corporate expansion and relocation interest has picked up in some markets, which could have a positive impact on inventory and construction.
Manufacturing and Transportation
Contacts reported that volumes of shipments were above last year's levels, and that chemical and agricultural goods shipments, in particular, were strong. Rail contacts noted that shipments of energy and food-related products were driving increases in activity.
Banking and Finance
Employment and Prices
On balance, contacts reported that input prices had receded or leveled off from earlier this year. Retailers continued to heavily discount products. Businesses mentioned pursuing various cost-cutting measures in order to support positive margins. Manufacturers noted general success passing on earlier increases in commodity prices. Any plans to increase wages were generally limited to employees with a high degree of technical skills.
Natural Resources and Agriculture
Drought conditions persisted in much of Georgia and parts of Alabama. High livestock feed costs were pressuring poultry producers but were being successfully passed on by cattle producers. Corn prices remained elevated and cotton prices paid to farmers increased modestly since the last report, although cotton futures prices have declined somewhat further in recent weeks. Agriculture contacts continued to report concerns over labor shortages and production issues that they tied to recently passed immigration laws in some states.
Seventh District--Chicago
The pace of economic activity in the Seventh District picked up some in September. However, contacts continued to note uncertainty about the economic outlook and expressed concerns about recent financial market developments. Consumer spending was moderately higher and business spending increased slightly. Manufacturing production picked up, while construction was little changed. Credit conditions again tightened. There was further pass-through of elevated wholesale prices to the retail level. Corn, soybean, wheat, milk, and hog prices decreased, while cattle prices increased.
Consumer Spending
Business Spending
Construction and Real Estate
Banking and Finance
Prices and Costs
Eighth District--St. Louis
Reports from contacts in the Eighth District have been mixed since our previous survey. Manufacturing activity has continued to increase, while reports of activity in the services sector have been mixed. Residential real estate market activity has continued to decline, while commercial real estate market conditions varied across the District. Lending at a sample of small and mid-sized District banks declined slightly during the three-month period from mid-June to mid-September.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Reports of activity in the District's services sector have been mixed since our previous survey. Firms in business support services, casinos, leisure, and health services industries announced plans to expand operations and hire new workers. In contrast, contacts in social services, media monitoring services, telecommunications, and education services industries announced plans to decrease operations in the District and lay off employees. General retailers noted that sales have been flat to slightly down and they anticipate that consumers will continue to cut back on their purchases through the end of the year. Auto dealers noted that sales increased during the reporting period but they anticipate that sales for the remainder of the year will be soft.
Real Estate and Construction
Reports of commercial construction activity were mixed throughout the District. Contacts in northeast Arkansas reported that Jonesboro and Paragould are experiencing an increase in commercial construction activity. In contrast, contacts in St. Louis reported that commercial construction activity is weak and is expected to remain slow for the remainder of the year. Reports of industrial construction activity also varied across the District. Contacts in west Tennessee reported that various medical-related establishments have either completed construction projects or announced new ones. In contrast, contacts in St. Louis and Louisville reported that speculative industrial construction activity is expected to remain slow.
Banking and Finance
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Ninth District--Minneapolis
The Ninth District economy increased modestly since the last report. Increased activity was noted in consumer spending, tourism, residential and commercial construction, residential and commercial real estate, professional services, manufacturing, energy and mining. Hiring at district companies increased slightly, while wage pressures remained generally subdued. Overall prices were steady with some exceptions noted.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Fall tourism activity was up slightly. The Minnesota State Fair in late August and early September was the third-best attended in history, down 1 percent from the 2009 record. Fall tourism was on par with last year in western South Dakota, according to an official. Meanwhile, a Minnesota travel agency reported that recent corporate travel was up 15 percent from a year ago.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial real estate markets were up slightly. Respondents to a Minneapolis Fed ad hoc survey indicated a slight increase in the need for additional space over the next three months. A Minnesota venture capital firm that funds minority-owned businesses noted an increase in purchases of vacant buildings. A large broker of retail space in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area noted increased leasing activity during the past two months. A broker for office space reported that leasing activity has recently edged up. However, the number of sales transactions was still low. Home sales in September were up significantly from the same period a year ago in Minneapolis-St. Paul. August sales in the Sioux Falls area increased from last year; however, the median price of homes sold in August decreased from last year.
Energy and Mining
Employment, Wages, and Prices
Wage pressures remained generally subdued. However, in North Dakota, some wage increases were reported due to gains in hiring related to the oil industry.
Overall prices were steady with some exceptions noted. Bank directors reported that generally companies were resistant to increasing prices for their final products and services over the next six months. Minnesota gasoline prices were down 40 cents per gallon in early October compared with early September. However, some business contacts reported recent increases in health care costs. According to the Minneapolis Fed's ad hoc survey, 45 percent of respondents indicated that input costs were up from a year ago.
Tenth District--Kansas City
The Tenth District economy improved slightly in late August and September. Retailers and auto dealers reported stronger sales and anticipated further gains in the months ahead. Sales were weaker at restaurants and hotels, leading to pessimism in these industries as the holiday season approaches. Manufacturing activity rose at durable goods factories, and the high-tech services industry experienced strong growth, while transportation activity was flat. Residential and commercial real estate and construction contacts continued to report weak conditions. Bank deposits continued to increase, while loan demand and loan quality deteriorated slightly. Crop conditions varied across the District, but farm income expectations remained strong. The energy sector expanded further with production increasing for oil, natural gas and coal. As input prices continued to increase, more contacts expected to raise prices in the coming months. But wage pressures eased from already low levels.
Consumer Spending
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Real Estate and Construction
Wages and Prices
Eleventh District--Dallas
The Eleventh District economy continued to expand at a modest pace since the last report. Manufacturing activity was mixed. Service sector activity held mostly steady, although retailers noted a recent pick-up in sales. There were some signs of improvement in the housing sector, and apartment demand remained brisk. Office and industrial leasing activity continued to increase, but commercial real estate investment activity fell. Loan demand was mostly unchanged, according to financial contacts. The energy sector continued to expand at a strong pace, while agricultural conditions deteriorated further. Many responding firms across industries noted their outlooks were less optimistic, reflecting uncertainty about the U.S. and global economies.
The price of WTI held between $80 and $90 per barrel for most of the survey period, but slipped under $80 by early October. As the driving season ended, the price of on-highway diesel and gasoline fell by 11 and 16 cents per gallon, respectively.
Labor Market
Respondents in high-tech manufacturing said that sales growth remained positive but continued to slow and new orders declined. Demand weakened across consumer and business markets and throughout most regions of the world. Producers of consumer electronics are reportedly very cautious about demand over the holidays and into the first half of next year, and have reduced their orders for semiconductors. Because of the decline in new orders, respondents in the high-tech sector expect sales to weaken over the next six months.
Reports from paper manufacturers were mixed. Box producers noted orders from the food and beverage industry had fallen, but demand from retailers had picked up. One paper firm said strong demand was leading to lower inventories. Outlooks were mostly downbeat, due to fluctuations in the stock market and speculation about another recession. Non-defense transportation manufacturers said demand held steady at pretty good levels, and is up significantly from a year ago. Responding firms were cautiously optimistic in their outlooks, noting troubles at the national level had not impacted them yet. Food producers said sales were flat since the last report, and outlooks were positive, although firms were not hiring because of concerns about current U.S. economic conditions.
Petrochemical demand weakened in September. Ethylene spot prices fell despite two large plants shutting down. Domestic demand for polyethylene is weak, and the strong dollar has cut off exports to Asia and Europe. Exports to Latin America also weakened as Asian producers offered prices low enough to displace U.S. exports. Refiners said demand for refined products fell slightly as summer ended. Margins remain strong, but have narrowed.
Retail Sales
Automobile sales were steady with some slowdown in traffic attributed to economic concerns caused by pessimistic headlines. Despite concerns, customers continue to buy vehicles. Inventories are somewhat light, but at appropriate levels for the most part. Used car supply remains constrained resulting in high prices. Expectations are for a continued moderate pace of sales growth.
Most transportation services firms said demand held steady or rose, but many firms' outlooks weakened further since the last report. Intermodal cargo volumes were flat, and contacts say outlooks are negative for 2012. Railroad firms said volumes increased during the reporting period, but that the numbers were somewhat artificially inflated due to capacity coming back online after the flooding in the northern U.S. Container volumes declined modestly over the past three months, but picked up in August. Small parcel shipments held steady in August, but shipping firms have lowered expectations of growth this year. Airline traffic was reportedly holding up well and has been flat to slightly improved over the last six weeks in terms of passenger volume. Demand for travel to Latin America remains strong, and travel to Japan is weak. Airline industry outlooks are positive, but more uncertain.
Construction and Real Estate
Apartment demand continued to rise since the last report, and contacts are positive in their outlooks. While construction has increased, demand has kept up, and respondents believe it will be a year or two before much of the new product is available. Apartment rents continued to increase.
Commercial real estate contacts said demand for office space remained strong overall during the reporting period, but that in recent weeks clients have deferred decisions to expand. Demand for industrial space was being spurred by lease renewals rather than the expansion by existing tenants. Real estate investment activity declined in August amid uncertainty.
Financial Services
Twelfth District--San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District grew at a moderate pace during the reporting period of September through early October. Upward price pressures were mixed but remained modest overall, and upward wage pressures were limited to a narrow set of skilled occupations. Sales of retail items rose, as did demand for business and consumer services. District manufacturing activity improved modestly. Agricultural producers reported further sales gains, and demand rose a bit for providers of energy resources. Home sales and construction remained lackluster, and demand for commercial real estate stayed weak in most markets. District banking contacts indicated that overall loan demand was largely unchanged.
Wages and Prices
Contacts in most sectors reported that upward wage pressures were nearly nonexistent, held down by limited demand for new hires and high levels of unemployment. However, wage gains remained pronounced for narrow worker groups with specialized skills, particularly in information technology fields. The reports suggested that wage gains are likely to remain muted for the foreseeable future, as most businesses do not expect to engage in significant hiring over the balance of 2011, except for normal seasonal needs.
Retail Trade and Services
Demand for business and consumer services was mixed but appeared to improve on balance. Energy utilities reported further increases in demand from businesses and households. Sales continued to expand for providers of technology services, although the pace of growth has slowed from reporting periods earlier in the year. Demand was largely flat for providers of professional services such as legal services and accounting and also for health care. Providers of transportation services reported slightly slower activity. Conditions in the District's travel and tourism industry were mixed: contacts in Hawaii noted a slight decline in visitor volumes, while contacts in other major markets, such as San Diego and Las Vegas, noted further improvements in visitor counts and hotel occupancy rates.
Agriculture and Resource-related Industries
Real Estate and Construction
Financial Institutions


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subset: commoncrawl


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An investigation involving adding and subtracting sets of consecutive numbers. Lots to find out, lots to explore.
Choose any three by three square of dates on a calendar page...
Investigate how you can work out what day of the week your birthday will be on next year, and the year after...
This poster is based on the problem Can They Be Equal?
The poster is available as a pdf.
The poster should automatically open in your browser.
This poster is also available as a .png image by clicking here.


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An international group of major health research funders have made a "joint statement of purpose" announcing, in strong and clear terms, their intent to promote greater sharing of research data.
As public and charitable funders of this research, we believe that making research data sets available to investigators beyond the original research team in a timely and responsible manner, subject to appropriate safeguards, will generate three key benefits: faster progress in improving health, better value for money, and higher quality science.
The 17 signatories (so far) include many major governmental funding agencies (e.g. US National Institutes of Health, the Wellcome Trust, The Centers for Disease Control, the UK Medical Research Council, Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, France's National Institute for Health and Medical Research, and the German Research Foundation), private foundations (e.g. the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Hewlett Foundation) and even international organizations such as the World Bank. The group has invited additional funders to sign on to the statement.
Some of the long-term goals articulated in the document are near and dear to our hearts, in particular:
To the extent possible, datasets underpinning research papers in peer-reviewed journals are archived and made available to other researchers in a clear and transparent manner.
The human and technical resources and infrastructures needed to support data management, archiving and access are developed and supported for long-term sustainability.
An accompanying comment in The Lancet by Mark Walport of the Wellcome Trust and Paul Brest of the Hewlett Foundation (Sharing research data to improve public health, DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62234-9) raises some of the hard, but by now familiar, questions that will drive the approaches taken by the funding organizations: how to balance the rights and responsibilities of data generators and data users; how to safeguard and further the interests of the data subjects themselves; and how to ensure that the benefits of data sharing justify the expense and burden involved.
It will be very interesting to watch how the funding organizations work singly and in concert to overcome decades of cultural familiarity with data hoarding in the health sciences and, as Walport and Brent put it, "mend their ways."


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Theme name : Mobileapps
Platform : WordPress
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MobileApps is a free WordPress theme with featured content option and supports the post thumbnails. Suitable for any niche. Theme Options at admin panel.
No spamming please, your comment will be manually moderated.


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|This page documents Help for users on Grand Theft Wiki.
"Reverting" refers to changing a page back to an earlier version.
This is used when a user makes a mistake and breaks the code, or to undo deliberate vandalism, spam or abuse. These techniques are usually quicker, simpler and more accurate than manually changing the code of a page.
Grand Theft Wiki Staff Members and Trusted Users have an extra button called "Rollback" which undoes all revisions to the page up until the previous editor. So if the spammer edited the page 3 times, it would instantly revert it back 3 versions to the last one edited by someone else.
For all other users, there are 3 options. You should look at the History for the affected page before acting (click "View History" in the top right).
- If you only need to revert the last edit to the page, just click the "undo" button and then save
- If you need to revert back to an earlier version of the page (losing ALL edits since):
- Click on the date to see that version of the page, and check it is what you need
- Hit edit, and check it is all fixed
- Leave an edit summary (in the box below the edit window) to explain why you are reverting
- Hit save
- If the damage is in the past, or is too complicated for the above methods, you will have to manually edit the page
If you are not sure how to proceed, you should tag the page with a Cleanup Template such as {{vandal}} or {{spam}}. This will alert staff members to the problem, who can take swift action.
If the page is very offensive, pornographic or advertising, you can blank the page as a temporary measure, and replace the content with {{delete}} (for speedy delete). It is ALWAYS possible to undo any edits you've done, so don't be scared.
- See also: Grand Theft Wiki: No Shrines for Vandals


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World markets were mixed Monday, as investors focused on the upcoming international economic meeting in Switzerland and U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
London's FTSE 100 edged up 0.4% to close at its highest point since 2011. The CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.5% and the DAX in Frankfurt rose 0.6%.
Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid said traders and economists are focused on the five-day World Economic Forum, which begins in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday. That's also the same day that the International Monetary Fund publishes an updated outlook on the worldwide economy.
European finance ministers are also holding a two-day meeting ahead of Davos.
The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar, but the change was nearly imperceptible. After gaining nearly 10% during the past six months, the euro "has been confined to an exception[ally] narrow range," said Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategist Marc Chandler.
In the United States, President Obama celebrated his inauguration Monday, a day after he and Vice President Biden were officially sworn in to their second terms during a private ceremony.
Related: Investors brace for deluge of tech earnings
Asian markets were choppy Monday. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong closed slightly lower, while the Nikkei in Tokyo slid 1.5%.
The Bank of Japan began a two-day monetary policymaking meeting Monday, the first under newly installed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The central bank is expected to take measures to keep inflation in check. The yen has weakened more than 14% against the dollar since the beginning of October, and many expect that weakness to continue. But the Japanese currency showed signs of life on Monday, gaining 0.4% against the U.S. dollar.
Abe advocates "unlimited" buying of government bonds and wants to see the central bank raise its inflation target to 2%. It is not yet clear whether the BoJ will yield to Abe's wishes.
Related: Japan unveils $117 billion stimulus package
"Uncertainty remains as to the changes to the BoJ's inflation goal, which is currently at 0% for the medium term and 1% over the long term," wrote Camilla Sutton of Scotia Bank in a research note Monday. "The BoJ is expected to pursue a more aggressive stance of monetary policy, likely to result in continued expansion of the central bank's asset purchase program."
-- CNN's Pamela Boykoff contributed reporting.


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Jump to main content
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This week I traveled to Lima, Peru, for the United Nations climate negotiations (COP 20), an important meeting in the effort to achieve an international climate agreement. Here in Lima, representatives from countries all over the world are gathering to highlight their progress in curbing the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and lay the groundwork for an international climate agreement.
Throughout the week, I shared with our international partners the impressive progress the United States has made since COP 19, held in Warsaw last year. We have worked with states and industry leaders to propose new national limits on harmful carbon pollution from power plants, and we've collaborated with governors, mayors, Tribal leaders, and county officials to support communities preparing for the impacts of climate change.
We have also played a leading role in international efforts to combat climate change. Just last month, in an historic joint announcement, President Obama and Chinese President Xi announced our two countries' respective post-2020 carbon pollution reduction targets. And that same week, President Obama pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, reflecting the U.S. commitment to reduce carbon pollution and strengthen resilience in developing countries, especially the poorest and most vulnerable.
So it's clear that the U.S. commitment to leadership on climate change is stronger than ever. Over the past few days, I have been highlighting that leadership in discussions with environmental ministers and government officials from around the world, as well as scientists, state and local leaders, business leaders, and advocates who share the President's belief that we have a moral obligation not to leave behind a planet that is polluted and damaged.
Some of the sessions throughout the week addressed the already apparent impacts of climate change, including to our most treasured and vulnerable places like the Arctic. Other panels focused on progress in implementing the President's Climate Action Plan, including EPA's Clean Power Plan. I also heard about action taken at the subnational level in other countries, and shared how states, cities, and tribes have demonstrated bold leadership in the face of climate change here in the U.S. And one of the discussions explored actions that reduce emissions and build resilience at the same time, such as advancing green stormwater infrastructure and investing in sustainable and resilient transportation.
As part of the week's events, CEQ hosted two events aimed at getting the word out about President Obama's Climate Action Plan. The first brought together a group of Administration and White House officials to share how the U.S. is staying on track to meet the President's bold goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17 percent by 2020. The other event addressed our efforts to support communities as they prepare for the impacts of climate change and highlighted the work of members of the President's State, Local, and Tribal Leaders Task Force on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, including Mayor Ralph Becker of Salt Lake City, who participated via video, and Governor Jerry Brown of California.
The steps we've taken at home to tackle climate change have made the U.S. a credible voice for climate action on the international stage. And that's important, because climate change is a global challenge that demands a global response. COP 20 in Lima will help pave the way for an international agreement to be reached at COP 21 in Paris in December of 2015.
As we move towards Paris, the Administration is going to keep pushing forward on all fronts at home to cut carbon pollution, invest in clean energy, boost energy efficiency, and build community resilience. We'll continue to set ambitious goals, and we'll remain on track to meet them. Because, as the President said at the UN Climate Summit this year, our children deserve such ambition.
Mike Boots leads the White House Council on Environmental Quality.


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National Standards: Costly in Dollars and Liberty Lost
Education Secretary Arne Duncan's comments last week, in which he equated state lawmakers who question the Common Core national standards push with conspiracy theorists, are another indication that the Common Core Initiative is not the states-based movement the Administration claims it to be.
Indeed, national standards have become the cornerstone of the Department of Education's efforts to increase federal control over the content taught in local schools. As the Pioneer Institute has recently reported, national standards adoption will cost states nearly $16 billion—an amount far exceeding any grant money doled out to states (partly in return for adoption of these standards).
Pioneer also notes that the U.S. Department of Education is running afoul of three laws prohibiting the federal government from being involved n curriculum. And notably, groups across a wide spectrum have voiced concerns that national standards will not improve educational outcomes.
National standards will also require new student assessments. The implementation of these new standards and assessments, the resources necessary to administer the assessments, and the professional development required will come at a hefty cost to taxpayers.
This year alone, South Dakota is spending $8.4 million in professional development training in preparation for implementing national standards in its schools. This training is necessary as teachers and administrators must become familiar with new terminology, new requirements, a new test, and a new system for administering the test, all changes associated with the implementation of national standards.
For this and many other reasons, teachers have some serious concerns about the use of Common Core national standards in their schools. Kasey Brzycki, a fifth-grade teacher in Missouri, worries about the loss of control she'll have as both a teacher and as a parent. She explains in the video below:
There's such a disconnect between Washington, D.C. and our schools at the local level. And it's very sad for me to think that any ounce of local control that we had left…is getter even farther removed, to where, as a parent, if I have a problem with something my child is learning in social studies, I can't go to the school district, I can't even go to the state anymore, because it's out of our hands."
Also seen in Education News, Foundry Blog, Boston Globe Blogs and Daily Me.


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Developing and Deploying Roadside Infrastructure at Mcity
WSP USA is responsible for developing and deploying the roadside infrastructure that communicates with vehicles being tested at Mcity, and on public roadways throughout Ann Arbor, Michigan. Mcity is one of the few test tracks in the world dedicated to connected and automated vehicle (C/AV) technology, located at the University of Michigan.
- Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


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Musical performance by Coliseum.
Work by Tim Kerr
Twin Infinities
Nomad Art Gallery
Opening Reception: July 1st to July 2nd
1993 Blake Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90039
Works by Rich Jacobs.
Inside of the Nomad Art Compound space, a 6,000 square foot art lab for art and music.
A wall of photograph works by various artists.
Work by Sonny Kay
Looked around and finally found the Chris Johanson piece.
Some comic style works by Brian Walsby
Flag by Matt Leines.
Anyhow, definitely keep an eye out for any events at the Nomad gallery. They got some good stuff going on as well as a wrestling ring for Lucha wrestling!
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For those of you who want to get in on the ground floor of a new venture, but haven't yet worked up the nerve to start your own, begin with a job at a startup. But first you should ask yourself if you are prepared for the realities.
Working for a startup is not a career choice, but more of a lifestyle. The long-term opportunities may be large, but near-term paychecks will be small, compared to large companies in the same industry. Stock options, if you get them, won't help you pay the mortgage for a least a couple of years, and the value then is totally unpredictable. Don't even think about health and dental benefits for your spouse and kids.
So here's a strategy I recommend (definitely the most common strategy in Silicon Valley). One family partner works for a startup, and the other sticks with a large enterprise company like Intel, HP, Apple, IBM, or Fujitsu. The large enterprise provides one stable income, an excellent set of benefits for the family, and that partner can get off work at 5pm to pick up the kids.
The other partner, and hopefully there is only one crazy one, goes after the startup lifestyle. Here are some approaches and considerations in finding a good fit with real odds of success:
Check Craigslist. Most startups don't have money for listing fees, so they pick this free service that is popular with the younger crowd. There are many other job boards and specialized services, as well as the local newspaper, so pick a couple and get busy.
Start networking. People hire people they know, so nurture your relationship with friends already active in startups. They know the quality of work you can do, and they have friends in other startups. Skip the recruiting agents who hover in these networks – they don't usually represent you well, and often antagonize the startups with aggressive selling.
Visit venture capital websites. Most VCs list the startups they are funding, with pointers to their websites. The VC website may even directly list opportunities in the companies they support. Start here for a list of VC organizations. Same thing for Angel organizations.
Peruse startup directories. There are multiple online sites, like the Startup Directory and VentureLoop, that you can browse by company name, region, or technology. Then you find someone you know in one of these companies, or polish your resume for submission to the startup websites advertising openings.
Join local organizations. Every area has networking events, like the NYC Tech Meetup, and organizations like the Silicon Valley Forum. The more active you are in these, the higher the probability of finding opportunities early.
But a word to the wise, be picky about what startup you join. Ask around about the founders. Make sure you meet more than the boss and check the culture before you take the job. Reporting structures are fluid in startups, and unfortunately many startups are like dysfunctional families.
Make sure you believe in the product and the people. Here are some specific questions to ask:
- How much money is in the bank?
- What's the monthly burn rate?
- When is the next round closing?
- How many options are being offered (% of total)?
- When do they expect to be cash flow positive?
Most importantly, make sure you are ready for the realities of working for a startup. The hours are long and unpredictable. Personalities are strong, and the hiring process for good ones is tougher than big corporations. But if you are aching to be a part of the next big thing, and change the world, a startup is where it happens. It's the next best thing to starting one yourself.
Marty Zwilling


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Apple, Cranberry, Walnut Dumplings Drizzled with Warm Maple Syrup » apple dumplings 023
This entry was posted on Monday, October 24th, 2011 at 9:10 pm and is filed under . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.


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The Chargersannounced Tuesday that the versatile running back has agreed on a two-year contract extension with the team. Financial terms haven't been disclosed. Woodhead had one year remaining on his previous contract and is now under team control through the 2016 season.
"Danny is an integral part of our offense," said general manager Tom Telesco. "His work ethic and on-field production were key elements last year. We look forward to having him be a part of the Chargers organization into the future."
Woodhead was a vital cog in San Diego's offense last season, establishing career highs with 76 catches, 605 yards, six receiving touchdowns and 1,296 all-purpose yards. He ranked second among all NFL running backs in receptions and receiving yards. Woodhead, 29, came to the Chargers in 2013 after spending three seasons with the New England Patriots.
Woodhead is part of a promising backfield committee that also includes Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown. It's possible Woodhead finishes with more catches than carries in 2014.
The latest "Around The League Podcast" shines a light on the most unpredictable teams entering the 2014 season.


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Sizing Up Wind Energy: Bigger Means Greener, Study Says
Larger wind turbines have a smaller carbon footprint, a European study finds. But practical limitations and local rules could place a ceiling on size.
One of the most popular trends in sustainable living is to go small: Live in a small house. Drive a small car. Have a small carbon footprint. So it seems contradictory that by going big—really big—energy equipment can become better for the environment.
But that's the case with wind turbines, according to a new study by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.
(Related Blog Post: "World's Largest Wind Turbines: Is Bigger Always Better?")
Over the past 30 years, wind turbines have more than quadrupled in size. The blade diameter of today's models can surpass the length of a football field. In tandem with this growth spurt, land-based turbines in Europe became greener, the researchers concluded.
(Related Quiz: "What You Don't Know About Wind Energy")
The report, published in the American Chemical Society's journal, Environmental Science & Technology, looked at the energy it took to build, transport, maintain, and dispose of turbines, as well as the electricity the turbines fed into Europe's power grid.
Turbines became more sustainable over time because larger models produce substantially more energy than smaller versions, the researchers said, but it does not take as much additional energy to manufacture bigger turbines. And as more turbines were built, manufacturers became more experienced and technology improved. With each doubling of wind-turbine manufacturing over time, the Swiss researchers found, the global warming potential per kilowatt-hour of electricity dropped 14 percent.
Marloes Caduff, the lead author, said she was surprised by how much the carbon footprint of the turbines declined over time. "I thought we would see a smaller effect," she said.
The industry, for its part, has tackled many of the challenges of larger turbines—for instance, how to move them from one place to another. Even so, companies believe there will be challenges for further growth in turbine size, even as the industry seeks to further improve their efficiency.
Why Bigger is Better
Bigger turbines reach higher above the earth's surface, where stronger winds blow. This allows them to extract more energy than their predecessors, and to work more efficiently.
(Related Story: "Planting Wind Energy on Farms May Help Crops, Say Researchers")
In the 1980s, a typical wind turbine was rated with a capacity of about 50 kilowatts of electricity. Today, a large land-based turbine has a capacity of 3,000 kilowatts (3 megawatts). There are developers working on wind turbines as large as 10 MW for offshore installations. But on land, the most common turbines are from 1.5 MW to 2 MW. A 1-MW turbine can power 350 U.S. households for a year, according to Wind Energy America.
Using higher-capacity models reduces the number of turbines needed for a wind farm, says Fort Felker, director of the wind technology center at the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. For example, at today's capacities, 500 super-sized turbines could be installed instead of 1,000 smaller ones. By generating more energy with fewer machines, giant turbines can help reduce the price of wind power.
(Related Story: "Chilean Wind Farm Faces Turbulence Over Whales")
"The larger-size wind turbines result in dramatic reductions in the cost of [wind] energy," Felker said. "The cost has been reduced by a factor of ten or so, from unaffordable levels to where it is right now, able to compete with conventional power sources."
Beating the Odds
Experts used to put caps on turbine measurements, noting the logistical constraints of building huge machines, especially onshore models. After all, wind farm developers need to transport those mammoth turbines by truck or train, and have to use cranes to assemble massive turbine pieces.
However, engineers have found ways to overcome many of the obstacles.
"In 1985, I said [commercially viable] turbines wouldn't get much bigger than 120 kilowatts. In 1990, I stood at a conference and said that 500 kilowatts was the limit," said Henrik Stiesdal, chief technology officer for wind power at Siemens, a large international turbine manufacturer. "Now, we are selling turbines 12 times bigger than that. Every time I thought that we were close to the end, I was always taken aback."
But in recent years, turbine growth has slowed dramatically.
The amount of energy a turbine could generate doubled every four years from 1980 to 2003, Stiesdal said. In the past ten years, however, the generation capacity of land-based turbines grew only marginally, or remained steady.
(Related Blog Post: "U.S. Wind Energy Industry Confronts Squalls')
Two major factors still challenge turbine size, Stiesdal said. First, local authorities sometimes impose tip-height restrictions on turbines. And eventually, he says, the weight of turbines could negate any energy gains.
"The weight goes up cubed, but the energy capture only goes up squared," he said.
Companies continue to work to improve turbine technology. Future turbines could be lighter, contain fewer parts, have better controls, or work together to optimize energy.
Felker predicts both onshore and offshore turbines will get bigger. Engineers will continue to learn from present models, and work to find a variety of ways to make turbines better.
This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visit The Great Energy Challenge.


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They say you shouldn't talk politics, religion or money in polite company. We disagree. We believe that controversial issues deserve collaborative and innovative problem solving working to keep …
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They say you shouldn't talk politics, religion or money in polite company. We disagree. We believe that controversial issues deserve collaborative and innovative problem solving working to keep Colorado as one of the best places to live. The Bighorn Energy Leadership Fellows spent eight days together this fall doing exactly that over three meals a day, presentations from 31 local and international experts, and one improv comedy show. We stayed polite and disagreed without being disagreeable.
We are Coloradans from across the political spectrum, hailing from around the state, ranging from college student to near retirement, and working in a variety of sectors. We are members of the 2017 cohort of Bighorn Leadership Program: Colorado's Energy Future. The Bighorn Leadership Program was founded in 2001 to ensure that Colorado has a deep bench of thoughtful individuals who will actively and constructively engage in the public policy arena both on the local and state levels.
Over the years, Bighorn Fellows delved into vexing policy topics, including health care, economic development and — this year — energy. Specifically, exploring one of the most controversial issues facing Colorado today: How is Colorado going to continue its economic growth, satisfy a growing population, and yet provide energy in a safe, efficient, affordable and most environmentally and socially sustainable way possible?
Colorado leads the country in energy by numerous measures. Since the first oil well west of the Mississippi River drilled into Florence soil in 1860, our state has become one of the top energy producers in the country while valuing our quality of life and environment. This didn't happen by accident; it was the result of good policy enacted by the legislature, the voters, and the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC).
In 2004, Colorado voters passed the Renewable Energy Requirement Initiative, the first voter-led statewide initiative of its kind. As of 2016, Colorado was ranked 10th in installed solar generation and was the seventh largest wind producing state. We've since increased the standard three times, and the current target is 30 percent renewable by 2020 for investor-owned utilities and 20 percent for cooperative utilities.
The renewable sector is not the only energy sector where Colorado is providing leadership. As the state's population grows, natural gas drilling and exploration are bumping up against urban and suburban residential areas. Of course, Coloradans are concerned about this, and there has been significant progress in this area. In 2014, Colorado adopted rules for capturing methane and decreasing harmful carbon-based pollutants, rules that are now a national model not only in technical specifications but also in collaboration among environmental groups, the oil and gas industry, and regulators. Colorado's work inspired other states to adopt similar methane standards.
We offer to be a resource for the continued leadership in Colorado's energy future, for policymakers, companies leading the way, and our fellows Coloradans. Collectively, our group knows the science of solar panels, wind turbines and hydraulic fracturing equally as well as we know the regulatory environment, policy making, and electoral politics. We understand the public safety and national security implications of energy choices. We know the economics of Colorado's energy industry (renewables, natural gas and fossil fuel), and that it employs over 270,000 of our neighbors and creating nearly $15 billion in economic impact. If energy was a poker game, Colorado has more cards to play than most states.
Energy policy is complicated, but oversimplified rhetoric is not the answer. Coloradans are collaborative, innovative and cutting edge. The future of energy policy in our state cannot be a zero-sum game consisting of winners and losers. Let's solve this evolving and complex issue within city halls, the capitol, boardrooms and neighborhoods, where ideas can be discussed in transparent and public settings. We can balance economic growth and provide energy in a safe, efficient, affordable and most environmentally and socially sustainable way. And yes, we, the undersigned are ready and willing to help achieve this vision.
By Amber Rivera; Julia Kiewit; Deb Overn; Doug Campbell; Hunter Dunham; Jennifer Gremmert; Julie Murphy; Ellen Kutzer; Kirsten Skeehan; Hunter Dunham; Don Van Gilder; Marcus Fotenos; Mirka della Cava; Paul Majors, PE; Sarah Derdowski; Sarah Moss, MPA; Scott Yenzer; Bill LeBlanc; Joe Jefferson; Jariah Walker; Sean Holveck; Rachel Eisenstat and Steve Cummings, NCARB. Reach the Bighorn Leadership Fellows via program director Brenda Morrison, firstname.lastname@example.com.
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A model train with a mass of #4 kg# is moving along a track at #6 (cm)/s#. If the curvature of the track changes from a radius of #56 cm# to #27 cm#, by how much must the centripetal force applied by the tracks change?
1 Answer
Feb 22, 2017
The change in centripetal force is
The centripetal force is
The variation in centripetal force is
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Public works and engineering professionals keep our cities and counties moving. They maintain land records, keep traffic flowing, design utilities, and protect the environment.
These complex and crucial tasks require powerful and sophisticated tools such as GIS that provides the next step in the evolution of infrastructure management technology whether you are looking for accurate mapping tools, moving beyond traditional computer-aided design (CAD) tools, or integrating modeling into your master plans.
GIS supports engineering and public works functions such as survey mapping, traffic and street management; plus maintenance and service program management.
The city's GIS Department currently provides data to other departments within the city:
View the city's online maps.


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And the winner is...
MAN Lion's Coach crowned "Coach of the Year 2020"
The MAN brand stands worldwide for efficiency, innovation and customer proximity. The key to this success is the trust of our customers, based on the reliability of MAN products. More than 100 years' history of MAN trucks and buses prove the following: efficiency is more for us than just a trademark.
Apart from chassis, our product portfolio in the bus segment includes city and intercity buses as well as touring coaches. With maximum economic efficiency, an exemplary overall environmental impact, as well as maximum comfort and safety, MAN buses impress through the highest quality and satisfy all our customers' requirements.


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Every Angeleno loves it when their friends/relatives/business associates from New York come to town and complain endlessly that there aren't any good bagels in LA. Never mind that we have the greatest variety of Chinese food outside of China, an enormous spread of Southeast Asian cuisine, Korean, Armenian, Central American and out of this world Mexican. No, if you can't make a dough-shaped ring to their liking, your city sucks eggs (or egg creams).
Now, New Yorkers may annoy us with their queries (in retaliation, I take them to Langer's and let them awe at our counterintuitive pastrami superiority), but in this case, we have to admit that they are right. Our bagels largely suck. They are too big, too soft and filled with things like fruit and chocolate that have no business ever touching a bagel. (Of course, it's ever harder to find a proper bagel in Manhattan, but that's another story).
By far, the best bagels I've had in LA are at Brooklyn Bagel Bakery on Beverly. Their bagels are properly hard on the outside and chewy in the middle. They do have some of the aforementioned fruit flavors, but we will cut them some slack due to the quality of their product.
So, when your cousins from New York come to town...try to get them to go for a Oaxacan breakfast, but when that fails, head down to Brooklyn Bagels.
Brooklyn Bagel Bakery
2217 Beverly Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA 90057
(213) 413-4114.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
A Bagel Grows on Beverly: Brooklyn Bagel Bakery
Labels: American Breakfast, Eats
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Over 200 million Americans participating in a sport at any given time, so there are bound to be sports injuries. Every year, up to 5% of the American population incurs a sports injury and has to rest at home while the injury heals. Chiropractors know that this number can be reduced significantly. Here is a closer look at the 3 most common sports injuries and how the risk of attainment can be reduced.
1 – Traumatic Injuries
Traumatic sports injuries are probably the most common types of injuries in sports. They are frequently seen in a variety of contact sports such as rugby, football and ice hockey. Possibly the most common of traumatic sports injuries, the main reason why people see chiropractors, are sprains.
When muscles are stretched beyond their limits, they cause pain. Stretched too far and they can tear. Chiropractors work with people to not only help treat these injuries but reduce their frequency. Using a variety of techniques, they help improve the joints, ensuring they can withstand more stress and perform better as well.
2 – Repetitive Stress Injuries
In many sports such as cricket, table tennis, football, running and weightlifting, players repeat a number of movements and stress the same area of their body. As such, these people are prone to a number of injuries classified as repetitive stress/motion sports injuries. In part, considering the nature of these sports, these injuries are inevitable. However, their frequency can be reduced.
Chiropractors work with athletes of such sports and help them reduce their risk of injury. How? Chiropractors simply use a number of techniques to help strengthen their joints. As a result, a stronger joint is less prone to injury.
3 – Soft Tissue Injuries
Soft tissue sports injuries are regarded as a separate type of injury as they usually occur when a severe sprain has been incurred, usually coupled with a contusion. Such an injury involves localized swelling and the production of a lot of heat. However, chiropractors know that if left untreated for too long, it takes quite a while to heal.
As such, chiropractors work to reduce the swelling as fast as possible, allowing them to properly manipulate the affected area and help reduce pain and enable faster recovery.
In many cases, sports injuries are inevitable. However, according to many medical experts, including chiropractors, their frequency can be significantly reduced.
Image used under Creative Commons Licensing: Shane Williams scores try at Ravenhill.jpg


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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AOL Inc. (NYSE:AOL) today announced the continued strategic investment in its programmatic platforms by entering into an agreement to acquire Convertro Inc., a leading provider of multi-touch attribution modeling technology for brands and agencies. Convertro helps marketers and agencies maximize their return on advertising spend across online and offline media channels through granular insights into each channel, format, ad creative and audience segment. This transaction follows the recent announcement of ONE by AOL, a programmatic enterprise platform that will drive powerful brand insight and actions across all screens including linear and connected TV, all formats, and all inventory. Convertro will provide AOL's customers with the ability to manage the consumer journey across the entire purchase funnel and across all channels, driving economic efficiencies and media effectiveness.
The addition of Convertro into AOL Platforms will enable marketers and agencies to:
- Plan, activate and optimize multi-channel media ad spend effectively, in real-time, across every channel and inventory source;
- Understand and repeat successful paths to conversion;
- Adapt creative and messaging to a consumer's stage in the purchase funnel;
- Pinpoint the intersection of brand and direct response dollars at a granular level;
- Implement and derive insights from attribution modeling in real time at the individual consumer level; and
- Access AOL's open, modular and unbiased platform which is committed to preserving the integrity of Convertro's attribution modeling methodology.
"AOL is making advertising easier for marketers and agencies, as well as publishers," said Tim Armstrong, Chairman and CEO, AOL. "Our agreement to acquire Convertro demonstrates our continued commitment to bring efficiency to the advertising industry through automation and machine learning. Our focus on the AOL Platforms business has positioned AOL for growth as the trend around programmatic advertising continues to transform the industry."
"Convertro's vision has always been to provide its clients visibility and recommendations on how their advertising investment works and how to improve that return on investment," said Jeff Zwelling, CEO, Convertro. "We believe the future of attribution is applying this data to programmatic buying and automated analysis. Integrating with AOL is going to bring our leading technology into the hands of some of the world's leading and biggest advertisers and we couldn't be more excited!"
Customers can garner access to Convertro one of three ways: through AdLearn Open Platform (AOP) or Adap.tv; as a standalone attribution modeling tool; or through ONE by AOL when launched, which will feature Convertro's attribution modeling capabilities.
AOL has agreed to acquire Convertro for a closing purchase price of approximately $101 million. The aggregate purchase price is comprised of approximately $89 million in cash funded at closing plus approximately $2 million in converted stock awards and a $10 million earn-out, payable over a period of up to 17 months subject to satisfaction of certain product development milestones.
About AOL
AOL Inc. (NYSE:AOL) is a brand company, committed to continuously innovating, growing, and investing in brands and experiences that inform, entertain, and connect the world. The home of a world-class collection of premium brands, AOL creates original content that engages audiences on a local and global scale. We help marketers connect with these audiences through effective and engaging digital advertising solutions.
About Convertro
Convertro provides clients with actionable spend recommendations that empower them to confidently reallocate marketing from unprofitable sources to more profitable ones. Convertro accomplishes this by means of its algorithmic attribution models that meld marketing cost and conversion data, including in-store, with customer marketing exposures captured at the most granular level. This algorithmic-based system, combined with other proprietary technologies developed in-house, affords extreme flexibility and enables Convertro to generate spend optimizations for all marketing channels that a client may leverage, whether online (PPC, SEO, display, affiliate and social, for example) or offline (such as TV, radio and direct mail). Convertro is based in Santa Monica (California), and maintains offices in New York and Israel. For more information, visit: www.convertro.com or find us on Twitter at @convertro or on LinkedIn.
Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the anticipated benefits of the transaction, the expected closing date and other statements identified by words such as "may," "will," "intend," "estimate," "should," "expect" or similar expressions. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of AOL's management, and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances, including, but not limited to, the satisfaction of the closing conditions to the transaction, the competitiveness and quality of our combined offerings and significant competition in the internet advertising industries generally, our ability to timely and successfully integrate Convertro's operations into our operations, our ability to retain, hire and develop skilled employees and the parties' performance of their obligations under the agreements. Any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by the statements herein, due to changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic and/or regulatory factors, as well as factors affecting Convertro's and AOL's operations and businesses. More detailed information about these factors as they relate to AOL may be found in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in AOL's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013, filed with the SEC. AOL is under no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or alter the forward-looking statements contained in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.


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Labeled NFS/Demo/Manual/Post-Install
Following are additional post-install configuration steps that can be performed to better integrate the clients and server in a way that more closely resembles what might be seen in an enterprise environment.
- 1 Automounting User Home Directories
- 2 Enable Kerberos Authentication and LDAP User Information on the Client
- 3 Adding Users
- 4 Testing
Automounting User Home Directories
Autofs/Autmount is used to automatically mounts user's home directories.
# yum install autofs
Edit /etc/auto.master
Add the following to the /etc/auto.master file:
/home /etc/auto.home
Edit /etc/auto.home
The file /etc/auto.home should have the following line in it.
- An administrator may want to adjust some of the NFS parameters
* -fstype=nfs4,sec=krb5,security_label,soft,intr,rsize=8192,wsize=8192,nosuid,tcp nfs.example.com:/home:&
Enable Kerberos Authentication and LDAP User Information on the Client
At the command line, run the authentication configuration tools on the client machine authconfig-tui:
client# authconfig-tui
It presents a number of terminal selection boxes. The first one is Authentication Configuration
Under Authentication:
- Select Use Kerberos
- This enables logins via Kerberos.
- this can change a number of files, the PAM configuration is the main one.
- Leave selected or select Use Shadow Passwords and Local authorization is sufficient
- This allows local passwords to work as well.
Under User Information:
- Select Use LDAP
Select Next
It now presents LDAP Settings. This should have the correct configuration information from previously configuring the LDAP server. But if it is blank or just to double check:
- Use TLS should be selected.
- Server: should be the LDAP server
- e.g. ldap://sefos.example.com
- Base DN: should be the base DN
- e.g. dc=example,dc=com
Select Next
It now presents Kerberos Settings. Again, this should have the correct configuration information from previously configuring the Kerberos server. But if it is blank or just to double check:
- Realm: should be the local realm
- e.g. EXAMPLE.COM
- KDC: should be the name of the Kerberos KDC
- e.g. sefos.example.com (the port number, 88, may be appended)
- Admin Server: should be the Kerberos Admin server
- e.g. sefos.example.com (the same as the KDC in this example; the port number, 749, may be appended)
- leave unselected Use DNS to resolve hosts to realms
- leave unselected Use DNS to locate KDCs for realms
Adding Users
After following the previous instructions, the network's Kerberos, NFS, and LDAP services are ready to be used by a client machine. But the user information necessary to make everything work has not been added yet. For most enterprises, the existing user provisioning system will need to be modified in some fashion to perform the following steps when adding a user. With the exception of some of the LDAP loading, what follows is mostly manual instructions for adding the user information for a single user. In a production system, these steps should be scripted and integrated into an enterprise's provisioning system to simplify user changes.
Kerberos Principles
The first step is to create a Kerberos principal for a new user. For this example, newuser is used.
- This command needs to be done by a principal that has write access to the Kerberos data.
root@sefos/etc kadmin Authenticating as principal email@example.com with password. Password for firstname.lastname@example.com: kadmin: addprinc newuser NOTICE: no policy specified for firstname.lastname@example.com; assigning "default" Enter password for principal "email@example.com": Re-enter password for principal "email@example.com": Principal "email@example.com" created. kadmin: listprincs firstname.lastname@example.com email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com email@example.com email@example.com email@example.com email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com firstname.lastname@example.com
Note: The listprincs results have been truncated here. 'listprincs' was just run to check that 'newuser' was created.
Creating Home Directories
NFS home directories can be handled in a number of different ways. This is just one way to do it. In this example, the NFS server's /mnt/export/home directory is bound to the local /home directory.
From the command line or placed in /etc/rc.d/rc.local for automatic binding at boot time:
[root@sefos \]# mount -n --bind /home /mnt/export/home
Each new user is then created on the NFS server. An explicit Group ID number (GID) and User ID number (UID) can also be given with the commands below, although it is not necessary. Unique numbers are generated automatically.
[root@sefos /] groupadd newuser [root@sefos /] useradd -m -s /sbin/nologin -g newuser newuser
- The GUI 'system-config-users' can also be used.
- By default on F9, a unique group with the same name as the user (e.g. a 'newuser' group) is created when a user is created.
- The UID and GID values that are set in LDAP later do not have to match the values generated here. The NFS files will be mapped between the two.
- '-m' creates a new /home/ directory for the user and copies the skeleton files (/etc/skel/) into it.
- The files created within a new user's home account can be set up to be what is administratively required and a different skeleton directory can be specified as well.
- Since the home/ directory is bound to /mnt/export/home/, the NFS user's home/ directory and default skeleton files are automatically created.
LDAP User Information
The next step is to add user information into the LDAP directory service. For most Enterprise systems this likely will be scripted. The OpenLDAP package has a number of schemas in place to handle user information that this example will build from. The package migrationtools is a good place to get started.
Migrationtools is a set of Perl scripts that convert a number of different standard network information databases into a format that can be added into a LDAP directory service.
[root@sefos /] yum install migrationtools
- Installs scripts into /usr/share/migrationtools
It should be noted that migrationtools has scripts for transferring everything at once, migrate_all_online.pl and migrate_all_offline.pl. Since this example is just interested in the user information (user, group, home directory, etc...), these scripts are not used. To just grab the pertinent user information and place it into the LDAP directory service, the scripts /usr/share/migrationtools/migrate_passwd.pl and /usr/share/migrationtools/migrate_group.pl are run to generate user information for the LDAP directory. 'migrate_password.pl' will pull user information out of a unix /etc/passwd file and put it into a LDAP ldif formatted output file. 'migrate_group.pl' will pull group information out of a unix /etc/group file and put it in a LDAP ldif formatted output file. This assumes there is an existing unix system with user's and group's that should be in the LDAP directory service.
To make life easier, there is a configuration script, /usr/share/migrationtools/migrate_common.ph that holds two pieces of information that should change. Change the default domain and base in this file to the desired values for the current domain.
# Default DNS domain $DEFAULT_MAIL_DOMAIN = "example.com"; # Default base $DEFAULT_BASE = "dc=example,dc=com";
Group information
Next create the list of groups to migrate to LDAP.
[root@sefos ~] /usr/share/migrationtools/migrate_group.pl /etc/group group.ldif
The file group.ldif holds a list of ldif formatted group definitions that look similar to:
dn: cn=newuser,ou=Group,dc=example,dc=com objectClass: posixGroup objectClass: top cn: newuser userPassword: {crypt}x gidNumber: 501
For the example, this individual record is pulled out and placed in a separate file, 'newusergroup.ldif'.
- The userPassword value is not needed here, so it is excised.
- The gidNumber should be unique within the network user information.
- For this example, this means unique within the LDAP directory server.
- The GID is changed to be a higher value so that it is less likely to conflict with F9 defaults which use GIDs starting at 0 for system accounts and GIDs starting at 500 for user accounts.
The new file 'newusergroup.ldif' now looks like:
dn: cn=newuser,ou=Group,dc=example,dc=com objectClass: posixGroup objectClass: top cn: newuser gidNumber: 902
Add it to the LDAP directory services on the server:
# chcon system_u:object_r:slapd_db_t:s0 /tmp/newusergroup.ldif # ldapadd -ZZ -f newusergroup.ldif
User Information
Next the ldif file for the user information is created and added to the LDAP directory. Pull out user info from the /etc/passwd file.
[root@sefos~] /usr/share/migrationtools/migrate_passwd.pl /etc/passwd users.ldif
The file users.ldif holds ldif formatted information that is similar to:
dn: uid=newuser,ou=People,dc=example,dc=com uid: newuser cn: newuser objectClass: account objectClass: posixAccount objectClass: top objectClass: shadowAccount userPassword: {crypt}!! shadowLastChange: 14071 shadowMax: 99999 shadowWarning: 7 loginShell: /sbin/nologin uidNumber: 502 gidNumber: 502 homeDirectory: /home/newuser
This as also parsed down to the values we need for this example and placed within a separate file, 'newuserinfo.ldif'.
- 'objectClass: shadowAccount', userPassword, shadowLastChange, shadowMax, and shadowWarning are all excised as they are not pertinent to the network user information in this example.
- loginShell is changed to a useful login shell.
- The group ID (GID) is changed to match the newuser group that was just created.
- The user ID (UID) is changed to a value unique within the network's user information (i.e. in this case, unique within the LDAP directory).
- The UID is set above the F9 default 500+ UID values to try to avoid conflicting numbers.
dn: uid=newuser,ou=People,dc=example,dc=com uid: newuser cn: newuser objectClass: account objectClass: posixAccount objectClass: top loginShell: /bin/tcsh uidNumber: 902 gidNumber: 902 homeDirectory: /home/newuser
Add the new information to the LDAP directory services. On the server:
# chcon system_u:object_r:slapd_db_t:s0 /tmp/newuserinfo.ldif # ldapadd -ZZ -f newusergroup.ldif
Everything should be set properly to allowing logging in. To test, simply go to the GDM login display on the client machine and login using the 'newuser' user name and the the password created for that user's Kerberos credentials.