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Each instrument will be taken in turn and compared in terms of the key features relevant to «without recourse to violence.» in society
These features are:
Aim: Function of the activity in.
Political Necessity: Why the activity is needed by.
Paradigm Role: The persona of.
Social Justification: The claimed rationale, whose validity is variable.
Levels are applied to generate pressure.How the two component
Examples: To illustrate what the instrument, and the account provided, refers to in everyday social life.
Deterioration: How destructive elements, inherent in the power-centred mentality usual amongst , can get out of hand.
Aim: To maintain power or to reposition your group in the light of developing events and emerging opportunities.
Political Necessity: Respond to any threat or challenge to the status quo, including decisions and directions already taken.
Charles de Gaulle (1890–1970)… Since a politician never believes what he says, he is quite surprised to be taken at his word.
Paradigm Role:.
Social Justification: To maintain social equilibrium and prevent conflicts between groups escalating in intensity, and potentially disrupting social life.
obligatory to go beyond observing and affirming the rule of law to cleverly and effectively in support of your own group while challenging behaviours of other groups or government—who often exceed the law or infringe your rights out of ignorance or by design.
It is natural to : this means ensuring it does not suffer in terms of its strength, social leverage or wealth from neutral events or deliberate actions by others.
Examples: Commenting on official statistics that look either good or bad for your group; sending warning signals to the other groups that tempers could flare if they persist; mounting a court challenge even if it is not followed through; planting questions in a debate from which your group has been excluded; using a public speech to comment on a matter that is entirely extraneous but of great concern to your group.
Deterioration: It is common for players to conform to the letter of the law but not the spirit, and many find it tempting to push the envelope and engage in borderline or outright illegality.
As a general rule in the current ethos, the bigger and stronger the group, the more natural it is to take illegal action. The most powerful group is the government, so it engages in the most massive and shameless illegalities.
Aim: To develop a defensible position on a matter of importance within society.
Political Necessity: To have coherent responses ready so as to be able to respond to tricky questions and direct challenges from the media, from politicians, or from members of the public.
Paradigm Role: Spokesman.
Social Justification: To show adequate knowledge and communicate it publicly in a consistent, coherent and definite way with proper authority.
obligatory to be aware of all relevant that have been made in the past, and of possible future decisions permissible under the law.
It is natural to demonstrate propriety and adherence to the . On a smaller scale, every organization (especially those in the public eye or using donations) needs internal regulations and systems that ensure the propriety of its staff.
Example: Briefings are regularly presented by the media as "a spokesman for X (or X group, X industry, or X's department) said today that…".
Deterioration: Cover-ups, bungles, ignorance, bland denials, disinformation, refusals to comment.
Aim: To ensure that decisions are reached that can be delivered because relevant powerful individuals and groups have consented.
Political Necessity: To get results despite conflicts of interest or obstruction either from external powerful groups or from powerful individuals within your own group. The fact that deliberations have occurred may not be made public; and if it is public there is a refusal to disclose contents on some incontestable grounds (e.g. commercial sensitivity, national security, presidential privilege &c.)
More on Why They Keep it Secret…
often involves many people, groups and organizations. Those with a vested interest commonly choose to impede or sabotage progress. Others may use the necessity of their help to extract a favour, concession or bribe.
So the first step is to quietly identify the relevance of the various parties and recognize the power differentials inherent in any resolution. Then secret talks can commence. It is a process of determining needed agreement or support, and doing deals where necessary. Such discussions are sensitive and often seemingly scandalous, so all parties insist that matters be kept confidential. If exposed, there will usually be a point-blank denial.
Paradigm Role: Decision-maker.
Social Justification: To ensure the privacy required for frank and genuine discussions that can generate secure commitments.
obligation on the executive to handle or enable the handling of any causing concern.
It is natural for in all relevant groups to respond to worrying issues and evolving situations by .
Examples: Union negotiations prior to calling strikes or ending strikes; after an election, organizing coalitions amongst political parties by agreeing the sharing of cabinet posts and doing deals on policy differences.
Deterioration: Dishonest dealing or agreements made on terms that are unfavourable to members of a group or to the public at large, or involve a breach of previous agreements, or are illegal, or entail bribes or improper favours.
Paul Valery 1871 – 1945… Politics is the art of preventing people from taking part in affairs which properly concern them.
Aim: To influencein the designing or application of laws and policies so as to promote the welfare of part or all of society.
Political Necessity: To oppose and criticize vested interests, political collusion and secret dealings as ignoring and actually or potentially harming the public good.
Paradigm Role: Advocate and advocacy organizations.
Social Justification: To inform officials and speak up for the public or a section of the public who are unable, in the nature of things, to represent themselves adequately.
obligation to clarify the relevance of the issue and how what they are
It is natural for advocacy groups to identify and so as to seek a resolution that satisfies their goals.
Examples: Advocacy is needed where the public interest is fragmented (e.g. consumers, taxpayers), where services benefit society directly (e.g. liberal education, scientific research, public broadcasting), and where people are intrinsically disadvantaged (e.g. the mentally handicapped, sufferers from unusual diseases, asylum seekers, prisoners).
Deterioration: There may be deception and distortion of the issue for ulterior motives by all sides. Some campaign groups masquerade as serving the public interest while being funded and directed by industry. Often politicians seek to frighten the public in order to get consent for extreme actions, more bureaucratic control, or large expenditures. The media often allies with the establishment to suppress or weaken advocates who present politically embarrassing views.
Aim: To argue matters of public interest in an open forum ensuring differing relevant value-based perspectives are represented.
Political Necessity: To capture the moral high-ground, undermine opposing views, win the argument, and gain public support.
Paradigm Role: Representative.
Social Justification: To argue the case and rebut opposing views.
obligation to of society, and to highlight relevant ideas and ideals from them to foster an emotional response to the argument.
It is natural in a debate for representatives not only to give personal views typical of their own side, but also to so as to claim to be speaking for the benefit of all.
Examples: Leaders of organizations active in the political arena regularly appear in public debates, live or broadcast, and so do many who work in the media as writers, presenters, or speakers.
Deterioration: Smears on character may substitute for debating on substance, especially at election time. Rhetorical tricks, half-truths, and even lies, are commonly used to win people over.
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860) noticed that, for most people, winning an argument was usually more important than getting at the truth. When there is intrinsic uncertainty, as is common in political issues, then winning is often all that matters.
Genuinely worried that his observations might be used and cause harm, he never published his text—but posterity took care of that. Here are some of his ideas for winning even if you don't deserve to:
Aim: To identify failures of responsibility and imagination by either or both the government and the citizenry.
Political Necessity: To claim truth, justice and right are on your side.
Paradigm Role: «Voice of Conscience».
Social Justification: To awaken the public and those in power to the need to address failures or errors.
obligation to that are neglected, in contravention of basic humanitarian expectations, as well as in terms of society's moral precepts.
It is natural to as a source of maxims and precepts and use these as a driver to improve the unsatisfactory conditions undeservingly suffered by many people.
Examples: The focus is often on unnecessary or unfair damage to common goods like air, natural beauty, rivers. Minorities, children and disadvantaged groups who cannot easily complain, often need someone to speak up for them.
Special UK Example–Maltreatment of Children: Children of deportees combine two disadvantages. In May 2008 England's Children's Commissioner and his team visited a detention centre holding children «for administrative purposes», and reported in April 2009. The children, many of whom had been living in the UK for years, had been treated rudely and roughly on arrest, put in caged vehicles smelling of urine and vomit, and taken to what looked like prison. In this bleak environment, there was no concern for medical records, no proper provisions for vaccination, and serious diseases were inadequately treated.
Deterioration: Appalling conditions or happenings may be created artificially to win public sympathy. Paranoia may develop in regard to the failing or danger, so that the sufferers are segregated or deported to remove their offending presence. A frenzy develops and guilt is proven by association: e.g. a respected «paediatrician» is attacked in a public place because his title sounds similar to «paedophile».
Proverbs 29:18 Where there is no vision, the people perish.
If you are a political player, then you need opportunities that give you an opening to get the results required by your agenda.
Originally posted: August-2009; Last updated: 5-July-2014.


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In late 2018, Beyond Celiac came to us for looking to brainstorm ideas on how they could share the news of their new spokesman, Arturo Chacón-Cruz. They had the idea that perhaps we could film ...Read More »
Change Agents
Eisenhower Fellowships identifies, empowers and connects innovative leaders through a transformative fellowship experience and lifelong engagement in a global network of dynamic change agents committed to creating a world more peaceful, prosperous and just. These ...Read More »

subset: commoncrawl


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Tuesday, 26 January 2010
Last Christmas Wish Blocks
5 comments:
By the time I have finished this, you will be done! beautiful blocks...ReplyDelete
They look great! Oooo, I just dislike mending or sewing something useful. I find it boring. But yet it has to be done.ReplyDelete
So pretty Ulla! Isn't it nice to reward yourself after doing a mundane chore?ReplyDelete
Mending...actually I feel so virtuous after finishing that its worth it!ReplyDelete
I love these embroideries! Does Finnish have all the same letters as English or do you have some extra? In Irish (Gaelic) the alphabet is traditionally just 19 enlish type letters but has several other symbols not found in other languages. My Mom used to write old Gaelic but you hardly ever see it now. I'm just curious.
And I laughed at your comment about our piled up coffee table!!
- Anonymous26 January 2010 at 17:28
Well done Ulla those came together quite quickly.ReplyDelete
I am like that with the ironing- a piece of fabric then a shirt. Son who supposedly likes ironing hasn't put in an appearance for a while.
Have fun with the sashing. :-) I am having a coffee here thinking of you.


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About San Diego City Employees' Retirement System
Look Up Your Benefits
Date: Mar 27, 2019
ATTENTION! Please note we are closed April 1, 2019. In addition, on April 1, 2019 we will be conducting website maintenance. Our website, The Member Portal, and phones will be unavailable. We will resume regular business on April 2, 2019.
Document Under Categories: Member Portal


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My name is Stephen. I'm here because I'm in the process of starting a business. I want to be able to help other people make their dreams come true. I just need initial funding to get started!
Hey Everyone,
My name is Stephen, and I am 27 years old that resides in a small town in Virginia. I am in the Army National Guard as a part time truck driver. I have been with them for 7 years and have enlisted for 6 more. I'm looking to launch my business so I can start helping people with their businesses or make their ideas come reality. I have studied how to become an expert digital marketer. I will be able to bring more clients and sales to them quickly.
I have made many mistakes causing my credit to be very poor so I definitely understand the struggle that people go through everyday. Both of my parents were drug addicts while I was growing up, but I'm thankful they are still alive and not incarcerated. I have friends that grew up without parents and I couldn't imagine what that would be like. I want to help my parents when I become successful because they did the best they could. I have been struggling almost my whole life so I started investing in myself. I have spent thousands in financial literacy and business education. I haven't been successful because of my credit and most businesses require a lump sum up front payment. Luckily, I have found an opportunity that I can be able to start without requiring so much up front capital. In my past, I had a friend ask me for help because he was going through a tough time, so he asked me to get a loan for him. I eventually helped him but then he told me that his wife was leaving and that she was the one making payments. I was left with something I couldn't afford. I learned my lesson that don't lend money unless you can afford to lose it. I do want to help people that are struggling but I can't do that until I am on my feet better! I want to show people that there is more out of life than they are used to. I will use these initial funds to get a profession website published with professional email and phone. I will get software tools to help me which have monthly subscription fees. Then, I'll post ads to let people know I am a new business ready to get the ball rolling. I can't wait to get started and help people not have to struggle the way I have experienced or any other way!
Can't donate? Please share. Even a quick share on Facebook can help.
The average share raises $97.


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KPP Announces Michael Branton Promoted To Vice President of Leasing
Michael A. Branton, part of the Leasing Team at the Burlington, MA office of KeyPoint Partners, has been promoted to Vice President of Leasing, according to Robert Lemons, managing partner of the firm. Michael had been a Senior Leasing Associate.
Mr. Branton joined KeyPoint Partners in 2006, focusing on urban retail, shopping center leasing, and tenant representation, representing Boston Sports Club, O'Neil Cinemas, and Cambridge Savings Bank throughout New England.
Mr. Branton graduated from Gettysburg College with a B.A. in History and Spanish and has received his certificate in Commercial Real Estate from Boston University. He holds Real Estate Broker licenses in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, and New York. Mr. Branton is a member of the ICSC and is a member of the New Hampshire ICSC Next Generation Committee.
"Michael's hard-work, commitment, knowledge, and understanding of the markets and industry are displayed daily," Lemons said. "He consistently delivers value and excellent service to his clients, and does it with a high degree of ethics."


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Beautifully crafted from 950 silver. Designed to be worn with Bethania's bangles.
If you want the complete set of 5 for $165, choose yes on the 'set of 5' option. If not then select no and then you can choose which style earrings you would like in the 'style' option.


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Items where Author is "Asbullah, NA"
|Up a level
Group by: Item Type | No Grouping
Jump to: Article
Number of items: 1.
Kamaruzzaman, SN, Myeda, NE, Ishak, NH, Asbullah, NA and Riley, ML (2019) Environmental study of developing index on the health and well-being of occupants in affordable housing in Malaysia. Ekoloji, 28 (107). pp. 325-335. ISSN 1300-1361


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Choose a topic to watch videos that answer real-life questions
Is an outside caregiver preferable to a family member for someone with a spinal cord injury?
If at all possible, I think it's better to have an outside agency provide the caregiving role because it keeps the roles within the family cleaner. You can stay in the role of the spouse, or the sister or whatever your role is within the family, and it's less burden and responsibility on you. You still will be doing some caregiving responsibilities, but if you're not having to do a bowel program in addition to being a wife then the intimacy roles are not as complicated that way. If it's at all possible—finances come into play with this, there's a number of issues that come into play with this—sometimes it's not always possible for the family to do that.


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I've never been able to handle car problems. They make me seethe, curse and cry, and call for help. Whenever I took my car for repair, my husband would reassure me with, "It's not a big thing. They'll probably charge you $150 to $ 200." The mechanic would find four or five defective parts to be changed for a total of $500 to $800. If I protested, I was treated to a patronizing lecture from a well-muscled hunk with tattoos and dirty nails, who ended his speech with, "If you don't want to fix it, it's up to you, but I wouldn't want my mom on the road in a car so messed up." Sure enough, I would panic and beg him to fix it. At home my hubby would throw his arms in the air. "What? $800 for this? How do you manage to let them cheat you like that?" Do I need to add that my self-confidence about car repair had often hit rock bottom?
When my daughter graduated from college she dragged me to a How to Handle Car Problems three-hour seminar with hands-on experience.
We learned how to interpret the warning lights on the dashboard, change a flat tire and replace a battery. We understood that weird odors indicate an issue under the hood — a coolant leak or mold in the vents. Strange vibrations such as a shaking steering wheel could be caused by unbalanced tires, warped brake rotors and damaged or worn suspension system parts. By the end of the long training, I felt so knowledgeable and confident. Our instructor concluded by saying, "Listen ladies, despite all I taught you today, the best thing for you to do if you run into car problem is to immediately call AAA, Geico, or any other insurance, a mechanic and your husband."
I was driving from Columbus, OH. to Cincinnati when my car burped and shook. I pressed the brake pedal, waited a few seconds, and slowly raised my foot, steering to the side of the road. The car rolled a few yards along the emergency lane, and then shuddered, thumped, and hiccupped. A light on the dashboard indicated tire problems. I cringed and pushed down on the brakes, knowing I had a flat tire. For two minutes I debated on changing the tire myself. I remembered the theory well, but I also remembered our instructor's conclusion. To be on the safe side, I called AAA, the insurance and my husband.
How do you handle car problems?
In LOVE IN THE ER the hero and heroine meet during a tropical storm as she's stuck in her car with a flat tire. "The path to happy ever after is not a smooth one. Both have a lot of problems to solve. This is a good story, my favorite by this author. Lots of drama takes them to different places."
New York Times and USA Today Bestselling Author, Mona Risk, received an Outstanding Achiever Award from Affaire de Coeur Magazine. She's a two time winner of Best Contemporary Romance of the Year from Readers Favorite; a winner of Best Romance Novel of the Year from Preditors & Editors Readers Poll; and an EPIC Award finalist.
Mona Risk's name has often been posted on the Amazon.com 100 Most Popular Authors in Romance list, and her books have garnered: Top Pick, Outstanding Read, Sweetheart of the Week, and Best Book of the Week from various reviewers, and received two mentions in Publisher's Weekly.
Mona lives in South Florida and has traveled to more than eighty countries on business or vacation. She writes contemporary romances, medical romance, romantic suspense, and paranormal fantasy. Sprinkled with a good dose of humor, her stories are set in the fascinating places she visited or more simply at home.
If you like to travel and love to read, come and enjoy her international romances. Meet the spirited heroines and special heroes who share irresistible chemistry in stories that simmer with emotion.
View website


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The Furman Paladins, seeded 13th, pulled off a shocking upset against the 4th-seeded Virginia Cavaliers, securing a 68-67 victory in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament at the Amway Center. The thrilling win was punctuated by a last-second three-pointer from sophomore JP Pegues, propelling the Paladins into the round of 32.
This marks Furman's first tournament win since [1] their 75-67 victory over South Carolina in the first round on March 9, 1974.
Furman head coach Bob Richey praised the team's resilience [2] and determination after the nail-biting win, "All year, we've been saying that this team just knows how to win." Adding, "this team has persevered, and they did it today. It's a microcosm of what they learn; they just keep reliving the lesson and finding ways."
RELATED: Chris Beard Takes Job At Ole Miss Three Months After Alleged Assault [3]
Down 67-63 with just 12 seconds remaining, it was Furman's Garrett Hien (52.7% free-throw shooter) who made two crucial free throws, cutting the deficit to only two points. Richey commented on his struggles [2] with free throws in the past this season, saying, "He's had some issues with free throws this year. It's not because he can't shoot them. He just had to believe."
After trapping the Cavaliers on the inbounds pass, Hien intercepted an underthrown pass near midcourt and fed the ball to Pegues, who hit the game-winning three-pointer. Peques expressed his confidence to Lauren Shehadi after the game saying, "I was born for those moments." When asked about the shot again during the press conference [2], he responded, "Those are moments I've craved my whole life, and I feel like I'm built for it."
"I was born for those moments."
JP Pegues joined @LaurenShehadi [4] after becoming a March Madness hero. pic.twitter.com/sPs95Dpu6B [5]
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 16, 2023 [6]
Jalen Slawson, a fifth-year senior, led the Paladins with 19 points, ten rebounds, and four assists, earning his ninth double-double of the season and the 19th of his career. Redshirt junior Marcus Foster contributed 14 points, while Pegues and Mike Bothwell added 11 points each. After the game, Slawson was found walking to the locker room in disbelief, saying, "he just freaking threw it!"
Jalen Slawson: "He just freaking threw it!" pic.twitter.com/xMLCWtPMjD [7]
— Brendan Marks (@BrendanRMarks) March 16, 2023 [8]
Despite the Cavaliers holding a 39-31 edge on the glass and limiting Furman to 39.3% shooting, the Paladins managed to outscore UVA by 24 points behind the arc and scored 11 points off eight turnovers. Moreover, Furman's second-half performance was impressive, hitting 6-of-14 three-point attempts and making all nine of their free throw attempts to net 41 points.
The Paladins (28-7) secured their school-record 28th victory [1] and became the first Southern Conference (SoCon) team to claim a tournament win since 2019. In this historic win, Bothwell became the fifth player in school history to reach 2,000 career points, while Slawson surpassed 1,500.
With momentum on their side, Furman will look to build on this stunning victory as they face San Diego State in the round of 32 on Saturday. The Paladins will tip off against the Aztecs at 12:10 pm. As Bob Richy said in the press conference following the victory, "it's a great day to be a paladin."
What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below and across social media.
NEXT: Audience Boos Vice President Kamala Harris At March Madness Game Before The VP Then Gets Roasted For Her Bland Speech to Howard After Their Loss [9]


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Archreader for Libraries
Archreader team works with libraries to help them find and acquire the titles they need & and support your library with comprehensive and personal customer service, you can select and order books with confidence.
Most online bookstores are hard for libraries to use because their shipping, invoicing, payment, and return policies are designed for individual consumers, not institutions. Our service is designed for the way you work, with consolidated orders, flexible payment options (including purchase orders), and an experienced Library Services Team who understand libraries and are ready to help. Send your requirements to email@example.com
How It Works
- Easy order management. Our Library Services Team will help you regarding your order. Track orders, edit account information, or add shipping addresses online at any time.
- Flexible payment options. Use our online payment gateway or bank transfer or more flexible payment options.
- Consolidated orders and shipping discounts. Get a detailed packing list with each shipment, plus free shipping on all orders.
- Quality assured. We hand-inspect every item before it's shipped so what you get is in the condition you expect—no surprises.
- Fast help from real people. Receive easy answers to your questions about order, invoicing, shipping, or returns.
Get the service you need and the titles you want? Get in touch, we can help you find it!
Together, we will find new ways to build a better library collection. With Archreader for Libraries, you immediately see what we have, its price, and how soon it should ship. Place an order today and experience the Archreader for Libraries. Email Us: firstname.lastname@example.com


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Auto Service PitsP.O. Box 303Manasquan, NJ 08736United Statesph: 732 228 email@example.com
Our custom built oil tank is conveniantly located within the pit itself and has many unique features. Our exclusive design lets the technician work all day without dumping the tank.
Copyright 2014
Auto Service Pits LLC
All rights reserved.
Web Hosting by Turbify


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Global Hospitality Solutions is a trusted provider in the hospitality industry, servicing more than 3 million rooms a year across 20 different brands around Australia. If you're asking why choose Global Hospitality Solutions, consider these points:
Global Hospitality Solutions aims to become part of your team in the way that suits your business the best.
Outsourcing of the entire department to an external provider, e.g. Housekeeping, Engineering, Security.
A model whereby a company decides to outsource the majority of a department however selects to retain key roles.
In this model, the client requires the outsourced company to take on all the existing staff, including responsibility for the leave entitlements, workers compensation and other employee benefits.
Partial outsourcing with additional staff to cover shortfalls in workload. Beneficial to hotels that experience a seasonal increase in occupancy or are looking to transition to the fully outsourced model.
The smartest way to reduce operational costs


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This author participates in the Readers' Favorite Free Book Program, which is open to all readers and is completely free. The author will provide you with a free copy of their book in exchange for an honest review. You and the author will discuss what sites you will post your review to and what kind of copy of the book you would like to receive (eBook, PDF, Word, paperback, etc.). To begin, click the purple email icon to send this author a private email.
This author participates in the Readers' Favorite Book Review Exchange Program, which is open to all authors and is completely free. Simply put, you agree to provide an honest review an author's book in exchange for the author doing the same for you. What sites your reviews are posted on (B&N, Amazon, etc.) and whether you send digital (eBook, PDF, Word, etc.) or hard copies of your books to each other for review is up to you. To begin, click the purple email icon to send this author a private email, and be sure to describe your book or include a link to your Readers' Favorite review page or Amazon page.
This author participates in the Readers' Favorite Book Donation Program, which was created to help nonprofit and charitable organizations (schools, libraries, convalescent homes, soldier donation programs, etc.) by providing them with free books and to help authors garner more exposure for their work. This author is willing to donate free copies of their book in exchange for reviews (if circumstances allow) and the knowledge that their book is being read and enjoyed. To begin, click the purple email icon to send this author a private email. Be sure to tell the author who you are, what organization you are with, how many books you need, how they will be used, and the number of reviews, if any, you would be able to provide.
Reviewed by K.C. Finn for Readers' Favorite
My Little China Girl: A Blottoblogography is a work of fiction penned largely in a stream of consciousness style by author Gordon MacRae. Recommended for adults due to some explicit language, sexual content and mentions of alcoholism, this is a dark exploration of a man whose pursuit of happiness leads him from one disaster to another as the plot unfolds, though he is always on the search for one woman who could become his ultimate life partner. Jaded by his friend's success, protagonist Thomas eventually ventures to China with the hope of meeting someone who can help him quell his affections into something more normative.
Author Gordon MacRae has created a thoroughly modern stream of consciousness style novel which reads like a contemporary to the likes of James Joyce and contains much outlandish, alternative and dark behavior as the characters explore the grim realities of life, love and the idea of companionship for life. The writing style and content of the novel itself will not suit every reader, especially as Thomas and Grant are both quite unlikeable in their approach to women particularly, but the writing certainly illuminates the psyche and the alcohol-fuelled ways of thinking which drive these types of characters towards the plot's tragic twists and turns. Whatever your opinion of Thomas, MacRae presents a raw and accomplished portrayal of character depth that affects readers emotionally, making My Little China Girl an intense and truly unique reading experience for those seeking something really different.


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Psalm Twenty Eight
by Dr. Henry M. Morris
(taken from the Defender's Study Bible)
A Psalm of David.
Psalm 28:1 Unto thee will I cry, O LORD my rock; be not silent to me: lest, if thou be silent to me, I become like them that go down into the pit.
into the pit. The "pit" here is not sheol, but rather a dungeon or possibly the grave.
Psalm 28:2 Hear the voice of my supplications, when I cry unto thee, when I lift up my hands toward thy holy oracle.
holy oracle. The innermost part of the sanctuary was occasionally called the holy oracle.
Psalm 28:3 Draw me not away with the wicked, and with the workers of iniquity, which speak peace to their neighbours, but mischief is in their hearts.
Psalm 28:4 Give them according to their deeds, and according to the wickedness of their endeavours: give them after the work of their hands; render to them their desert.
Psalm 28:5 Because they regard not the works of the LORD, nor the operation of his hands, he shall destroy them, and not build them up.
Psalm 28:6 Blessed be the LORD, because he hath heard the voice of my supplications.
Psalm 28:7 The LORD is my strength and my shield; my heart trusted in him, and I am helped: therefore my heart greatly rejoiceth; and with my song will I praise him.
Psalm 28:8 The LORD is their strength, and he is the saving strength of his anointed.
his anointed. "Anointed" is the Hebrew word Messiah.
Psalm 28:9 Save thy people, and bless thine inheritance: feed them also, and lift them up for ever.


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CECIMO Spring Meetings 2021
Online series of events for CECIMO delegates only
Due to COVID- 19 pandemic and travel restrictions, the CECIMO Spring Meetings 2021 will spearhead a series of online events, organized exclusively for CECIMO Delegates.
On 8th June, we will kick-off with the Board Meeting (reserved for Board members only). The Board Meeting will be followed by Communication & Advocacy Committee Meeting (Keynote Speech). Right after, the General Assembly will take place.
- 09.00 – 10.30 – Board meeting
- 11.00 – 11.30 – Communication & Advocacy Meeting
- 11.30 – 13.00 – General Assembly
Please note: registration is mandatory. Please use the "registration button" at the bottom of the page and mark all events (Including committee meetings) you would like to participate to.
Economic Committee Meeting
27 May 2021, 14.00 – 15.00 (CET)
Topic: "Economic and Market Situation: Global MT Industry – Overview & Outlook"
A full agenda is available here.
Registration is mandatory*
Technical Committee Meeting
1 June 2021, 14.30 – 15.30 (CET)
Topic: "CE-marking of machine tools, business as usual or drastic change of regime? What does the European Commission have in store?"
A full agenda is available here.
Registration is mandatory*
Additive Manufacturing Committee Meeting
7 June 2021, 14:30 – 15:30 (CET)
Topic: "Trade Shows & Exhibitions – Overview"
A full agenda is available here.
Registration is mandatory*
Communication & Advocacy Committee Meeting
8 June 2021, 11.00 – 11.30 (CET)
Topic: "The Future of European Data Infrastructure"
Keynote speaker: Thomas HAHN, Vice-Chairperson of GAIA-X AISBL
Registration is mandatory*
Register here to all the events you would like to participate to.


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Vegan Paprika Cheese without Nuts or Soy!
Nut and soy free vegan cheese - amazing! It slices and grates... all without the fat or allergy issues that so many other plant based cheeses seem to have.
Creamy Vegetable Curry
This creamy vegetable curry is a mouthwatering taste sensation! With a simple home made curry paste, the fresh flavors are super tasty. Great served with rice, quinoa or cauliflower rice!


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Monument Valley 2 is Free in the App Store and Google Play
Ustwo, the makers of popular hit title Monument Valley 2, has made the game free to download during the COVID-19 pandemic, available in the App Store and Google Play.
"There are times when we just need a hug. So here is a virtual one from us… We've made Monument Valley 2 free on the App store and Google Play for a little while! Enjoy!" explained the London, UK-based developers.
Here's the description of Monument Valley 2, which launched back in 2017 in the App Store for $6.99 CAD:
Guide a mother and her child as they embark on a journey through magical architecture, discovering illusionary pathways and delightful puzzles as you learn the secrets of the Sacred Geometry.
Sequel to the Apple Game of the Year 2014, Monument Valley 2 presents a brand new adventure set in a beautiful and impossible world.
Help Ro as she teaches her child about the mysteries of the valley, exploring stunning environments and manipulating architecture to guide them on their way.
There's no word on how long the game will be free for, but it's definitely worth downloading to play.
Ustwo unveiled Monument Valley 2 on stage at Apple's WWDC in June of 2017. The Android version was released later in November of that year.
Download links:
If you're subscribed to Apple Arcade, Ustwo's title 'Assemble with Care' is a fantastic game worth playing.


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It's been a while since we posted on the blog, so it's time to finally show everyone what we've been working on! (Unfortunately, it was not a hunt for the best fishing spots).
This July was filled with renovation projects around the lake. On Loch Island, we completely removed the old floor and countertops in the Fish Shack. We poured footings and put down new treated wood flooring with a non-slip finish, then moved the ice machine back in and built new countertops that will last for many more years of filleting. The sink now runs hot and cold water, treated for drinking as always. The result is a roomier Fish Shack. For convenience, we purchased a second ice machine that operates in the lodge, leaving you with a shorter walk back to Cabins #4, #5, and #6 or your gathering on the lodge deck.
This summer, we're completing the walkways on Loch Island so that all cabins will be joined to the docks and the lodge by wooden boardwalks. We know that this will make getting around the island much easier, especially when hauling coolers and luggage back and forth! The walkway leading from Cabins #2 and #3 is now joined up to the lodge deck, and another walkway branches off to the Duplex (Cabin #4 and #5), removing the stairs that were previously there. It is now possible to access the lodge and all of the cabins without using stairs.
We completed Cabin #3's deck last week. Cabin #2 will be getting the same size of deck put on this week, and we do plan to expand the small walkway/deck currently on Cabin #1. In the future, we will build a deck on the back of Cabin #6 and have access through French doors in its kitchen. We plan to put BBQs and patio tables on each deck in 2019 so that Housekeeping Plan and Modified American Plan groups have more options for cooking their food when the weather is pleasant. The trees will be trimmed back for a better view of Wabatongushi Lake so that you can sit outside and enjoy every sunset with a hot steak and a cold beverage!
Upcoming projects include replacing docks, replacing the Loch Island dining room and bathroom floors, putting new sturdy tin roofs on the Otter Island cabins, building new decks and walkways at Camp Lochalsh, and renovating the Sandy Bay kitchen (which now has a new propane fridge and stove). There is never-ending work around a fishing lodge, but every summer we are dedicated to making improvements for our guests.


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Gift Baskets Make A Classy Present
Smart gift givers are always aware of the many types of Gift baskets in Tucson they can use for special occasions. In the movie The General's Daughter, John Travolta gives the titular character a gift basket full of fine bath products. To give him a hard time, the recipient challenges John Travolta to find if he actually uses any of these products. He must decide if he is going to look ignorant effeminate. Of course, John Travolta, supremely comfortable in his masculinity, says that he loves each product in the basket.
Like John Travolta, we choose the best gift baskets in Tucson when we target the recipient, and have a little knowledge of the products themselves. One of the best ways to do this is to keep track of a few favorite things about each person or employee that falls within your gift-giving purview. In his book How To Make Friends And Influence people, Dale Carnegie suggests writing down a few key pieces of information about everyone he knows and meets. The most important information tends to be the names of a person's kids. For gift-giving, knowing even one thing about a person can make a huge difference in how your gift basket is appreciated.
One husband understood that his wife had an inordinate love of chocolate. She loved the taste, she loved the texture, and she loved the smell. Each of these things brought her pleasure and reminded her of good times in the past. Of course, the perfect choice of gift baskets in Tucson would be a chocolate sampler. However, of course, it is important not to be obvious. If you are in a hurry, then a chocolate assortment from the nearest candy store may be in order. However, if you really want to wow your audience, then choosing a second theme to combine with the chocolate can be a winner. For instance, choose the chocolate items as all having to do with the ballet. Alternatively, choose a basket with truffles filled with exotic flavors. These are not as hard to find as you might think. In order to compete, many online stores are very creative in their offerings for gift baskets in Tucson.
Just remember the basic elements of a gift basket: a collection of something that is unique to the recipient. If the theme is very common, then choose a complimentary second theme to make an especially impressive basket.
If you are looking to impress a person with a gift, consider gift baskets in Tucson, Green Valley Pecan Company Store offer extensive range of gift baskets to celebrate a special occasion in a way that shows the recipient that you have put effort into their present.


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LBreakout 2 is a clone of Atari's Breakout made in SDL. With more than 50 levels it's a very challenging game. It is part of the LGames suite of games (LMarbles, LTris, Barrage). The game won the No Starch Press SDL contest.
You control a platform at the bottom of the game board. It's like a trampoline. When a ball (because there might be more than one ball) hits the platform, the ball jumps again. If the ball hits a brick, it disappears or becomes weaker. There are bonuses which randomly appear if you destroy bricks. More than one ball, sticky platform, a bigger platform (or smaller!). You pass the level once you have removed all the bricks on the screen. You lose if the ball goes to the bottom. In that case you lose a life. If you have lost all your lifes you can keep playing if you accept to lose your score.
Use the arrow keys and the space bar. However, in my gameplays I've achieved more precision using the mouse and the left click, which is also supported by default.
The game supports online multiplayer (LAN)(still experimental). However, the most interesting part of LBreakout 2 is the level editor. Create your own levels and share it with friends.
Install LBreakout 2 on Haiku
LBreakout 2 is available on HaikuPorts official repo. Search for it on HaikuDepot or install it using pkgman.
pkgman install lbreakout2


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3Q18 Results
During the third quarter of 2018, the Saga Portfolio ("the Portfolio") increased 12.7% net of fees. This compares to the overall increase, including dividends, for the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Index of 3.6% and 7.7%, respectively. Since inception on January 1, 2017, the Saga Portfolio returned 47.1% net of fees, compared to the Russell 2000 Index and the S&P 500 of 27.8% and 34.7%, respectively.
Strategy update – expanding the investment universe
When we launched the Portfolio at the beginning of 2017, we made the decision to focus on small and mid-cap companies for two main reasons; 1. the Portfolio was likely to be invested in small and mid-cap companies because that is where we found and expected to continue to find the highest returning investment opportunities, and 2. it is easier to bucket a particular investment strategy into a certain category such as a "SMID" cap fund.
There are ~4,000 publicly listed U.S. companies with a market cap above $100 million (roughly our investable universe within the U.S.), yet the majority of time and energy is spent analyzing and discussing the 750-1,000 largest companies. Since we expected the majority of our investments that would make up the Portfolio would likely be in the less efficient corners of the market, we did not believe limiting ourselves to small and mid-cap companies would be overly restrictive.
The fact of the matter is that restricting the investment universe to certain companies limits the number of opportunities available and therefore hurts the Portfolio's potential returns. It would be a lie to say we have not passed on attractive opportunities solely based on the fact that a company's market cap was greater than our self-defined small and mid-cap threshold. By avoiding attractive opportunities, current results are lower than would be otherwise if we were free to allocate money to the best opportunities available regardless of market cap.
Many institutional investors do not like an all cap generalist investment strategy because it does not fit neatly into one of their investment policy buckets. After a lot of reflection on what was best for our current investor base, largely consisting of close family and friends, combined with the goal of compounding capital at the highest possible rate over the long-term, we made the decision to remove the small and mid-cap investment restriction. Going forward, the Saga Portfolio will not be confined to a specific part of the public market and will pursue the best opportunities available at any given time, regardless of market capitalization, geography, or industry.
When it comes to money management, we think the last thing the world needs is another index-hugging, crowd-following investment fund that's primary purpose is to gather more and more assets through expensive marketing and a false sense of risk management. Fortunately, given our current size and fairly low overhead costs, we feel no pressure to aggressively grow assets by sacrificing the long-term performance of the Portfolio. We want to be different from the crowd in that the Portfolio's sole purpose is trying to earn the best returns over the long-run.
Our only marketing to-date has been through our current investor base referrals and people who just come across our website or letters. We think this is the best way to grow. It acts as a self-screening mechanism because potential investors will already get to know us even before they reach out. It helps us spend more time on what's important, such as managing the Portfolio rather than sitting in a lot of meetings trying to explain our strategy which is likely not a great fit for many investors looking for something more conventional.
Now that the Portfolio is not restricted to small and mid-cap companies, the next reasonable question is what benchmark should be used to compare performance. No index truly provides a good proxy for the Portfolio given its relative concentration, but we still believe both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices provide reasonable benchmarks over the long run. We like the S&P 500 as general proxy for the market because it is a widely referenced and easily investible index for the passive investor representing ~80% of U.S. publicly traded companies.
A large portion of the Portfolio will likely continue to be allocated to smaller cap companies because that space will continue to be a good hunting ground to find high quality, undiscovered or misunderstood "compounder" companies. Given the greater allocation to small and mid-cap companies, it is reasonable to expect short-term performance to be more correlated to the Russell 2000 index.
Below is a chart of Portfolio's market cap allocation compared to the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 at the end of September. In terms of benchmarks, we will continue to provide relative performance for both indices and obviously each investor is free to compare the Portfolio with whichever index they prefer.
Source: Factset Research Systems, LLC
Interpretation of results and long-term thinking
Writing quarterly letters could instill a sense of shorter-term thinking, but we believe these letters are the best way for us to communicate our thoughts about investing and portfolio management. We err on the side of greater transparency by providing regular updates and reiterating our philosophy to help investors better understand how we think and manage their capital.
Following a fairly volatile month of October where both the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 declined a respective 16% and 10% from their September peaks to recent lows, it makes this a good time to bring up an excerpt from John Keynes' 1936 The General Theory discussing public equity investing:
"For most of these persons (investment professionals) are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it 'for keeps', but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence."
Over 80 years later and this quote still applies today in how most public market investing is based on trying to predict how a stock will trade based on expectations of what other people's expectations will likely be at that time. It's more of a speculative activity, which Keynes defined as forecasting the psychology of the market vs. an investing or enterprising activity, defined as forecasting the prospective yield (i.e. cash flow) of assets over their whole life. The stock market is full of people "interested in discovering what average opinion believes average opinion to be."
Keynes goes further, suggesting a way to decrease speculation by making "the purchase of an investment permanent and indissoluble, like marriage, except by reason of death or other grave cause, might be a useful remedy for our contemporary evils. For this would force the investor to direct his mind to the long-term prospects and to those only." If you imagined the stocks in your investment account are wholly owned businesses that you can't sell for at least 10 years, daily quotations would no long matter. The fact there is always a quoted price and the ability to sell shares back every day can cause normal, although potentially disadvantageous, human reactions when prices fluctuate.
Ben Graham created a parable, later popularized by Warren Buffett, to help investors think about how the market works. He personified the market as a manic-depressive business partner named Mr. Market. Everyday Mr. Market shows up at your door and quotes a price at which he will either buy your interest in the business or sell you his. Even if the private business you both own together is fundamentally stable, Mr. Market may feel euphoric one day, only seeing upside in the business and therefore quote a very high price. At other times he may feel depressed and see nothing but trouble ahead and quote a very low price. Without a doubt, Mr. Market will show up each day and provide a quote based on whatever mood he may be in.
Fortunately Mr. Market can be ignored. Investors do not have to listen to him because he will always be back again with a new quote. Therefore, the more manic-depressive Mr. Market behaves, the more you can take advantage of him. Although one should note, his emotions can rub off if you are uncertain you know the value of the business. That is why the key to successful investing, whether in public or private markets, comes from making good business decisions and not being influenced by the manic swings in the market. While the Mr. Market metaphor may seem unconventional to how most of Wall Street operates, we think it helps us stay more rational while the rest of the world may be acting irrationally.
Short-term returns are more or less random, and it is a poor use of your time for us to try and explain performance that was largely arbitrary and unpredictable. Therefore the question becomes, if you should ignore short-term returns in the Portfolio, how should you judge the Portfolio's performance in the short-term? We think the best answer is based more on qualitative factors. You should check our decision making for both new and existing positions based on our four main investment filters:
1. Will the company be around and prospering in 10+ years?
2. Is the company building a durable competitive advantage?
3. Is management high caliber and aligned with shareholders?
4. Does the current price provide an attractive return if the company is owned for 10+ years?
To help you judge if the investments pass these four filters, we try to lay out our decision-making process for relevant portfolio activities, particularly with any material new holdings. We'll also report any major activities during the quarter for the top positions.
Rather than have the daily price quotations tell us how the companies are performing, we look to the company's operating results, although quarterly and even annual fundamentals can also have irregularities. Very few success stories move in a perfectly straight line or smooth path. Over time, if we are successful at buying great companies run by honest managers when they are attractively priced, there is a high probability strong returns will follow.
Risk and Concentration
At the end of the third quarter, the Saga Portfolio had a total of 12 positions with its top five holdings accounting for ~70% of the Portfolio. We manage the Portfolio in this way because great companies with honest and talented managements do not show up at attractive prices very often.
Conventional portfolio theory defines risk as volatility, therefore conventional money managers aim to lower risk by lowering volatility through increased diversification. Alternatively, we define risk as the possibility of permanent capital loss, or in other words uncertainty. Investing is a matter of forecasting an asset's future cash flows which is anything but certain.
We have found that if a company meets our four simple filters; 1. a business we understand, 2. has a growing competitive advantage, 3. has high caliber management aligned with shareholders, and 4. selling for an attractive price, the degree of uncertainty, or risk of permanent capital loss over the long term, greatly diminishes. While these filters are not as precise or quantifiable as risk measured by betas or standard deviations, we believe they are more relevant despite their imprecision and more likely to lead to attractive investments.
Few companies meet filters 1, 2, and 3, but if they do it is rare the market has not already realized its strong prospects and placed a valuation on the company that lowers the potential for future excess returns. We approach the market as efficiently priced most of the time, believing Mr. Market knows more about a company's prospects until we conclude we have some upper hand or variant perception. It is very difficult for a company to meet all four filters, therefore an investment strategy based on placing many bets with high frequency will likely find it difficult to beat the market in a meaningful or sustainable way. It seems fairly obvious to us that putting more money into your 20th best idea than in one of your highest conviction ideas will more likely hurt rather than help overall returns.
While investing in a concentrated way is no guarantee of success, a high level of diversification and turnover will likely provide average results at best. There is a much better chance of decreasing risk in a concentrated portfolio than in a diversified one if it means it increases the intensity with which we think about a business and its prospects before buying into it. A smaller number of investments and infrequent trading allows us to spend a significant amount of time studying a company before investing, or more importantly, not investing. In other words, we prefer to do a lot of thinking and not a lot of acting while most of Wall Street prefers to do a lot of acting and not a lot of thinking.
Of course, just because we have high conviction about a company's future prospects and expected returns does not mean we have any idea what the share price will do over the next year. With greater concentration, we accept that near-term returns will be lumpier. Large drops in share prices are like earthquakes, they are unpredictable and bound to occur every now and then. After a selloff, one must determine whether the decline was due to a more accurate reflection of the company's lower intrinsic value, in which case it might make sense to reallocate capital accordingly, or due to the random manic swings of the market, in which case it might make sense to increase a portfolio's allocation to the more attractively priced opportunity. Only having a solid grasp as to the company's real value will help one take advantage of Mr. Market instead of the other way around.
Portfolio Update
We want to discuss any relevant updates to the Portfolio's positions so you know what you own and why you own it. Since we are now able to invest in any company regardless of market capitalization, we started to build a position in a well-known large cap company which we plan to discuss further in the next letter.
Writing out an investment thesis is a productive part of the investment process that helps us organize our thoughts and analysis. Publicly stating positions could lead one to dig their heals into the ground despite finding out the original thesis may have had some cracks. While we explain the reasoning for why we may own a company and enter each investment with an expected holding period of forever, we reserve the right to change our minds if the facts change.
We prefer discussing a company's fundamentals rather than writing about what stock prices did over the last quarter. At the end of the day it all comes down to a company growing its earning power over time, though it will not happen every single year. There will occasionally be down years, particularly with cyclical companies when customers push off larger purchases such as a home or a car, but the long-term trajectory should be positive. If we are correct in picking companies that can increase earning power over time, a rising share price will eventually be the outcome.
The Trade Desk (TTD):
We wrote about our investment thesis in The Trade Desk last quarter. It is a software platform company that enables customers to purchase and manage their digital ad campaigns. The Trade Desk is a great example of a platform business model that adds value by growing the network of connected buyers and sellers, increasing transparency, and enabling more accurate price discovery for buyers who want to make data driven decisions. This is a company that benefits from a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle which becomes more valuable the larger its network becomes. With The Trade Desk's high barriers to entry, scalable business model that requires nominal capital to grow, and large total addressable market, we expect the Company to be worth a multiple of its current valuation.
Platform Specialty Products (PAH):
The Company announced 3Q18 results where sales and adjusted EBITDA for the Performance Solutions segment grew low single digits, reflecting some foreign exchange headwinds and softness in Asian markets. The $4.2 billion sale of the Arysta segment to UPL is expected to close on 12/31/18, at which time Platform Specialty Products will be renamed Element Solutions. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance excluding Arysta but expects to be near the low-end of the provided range.
Element Solutions provides specialty chemicals that focus on surface treatment and electronic assembly. The business is part of integral processes generally tailored to meet customer specific requirements. Its products typically represent a small proportion of total end material costs but play an essential role, providing sticky customer relations and higher margins.
Including $25 million of estimated cost savings from the reorganization, 2019 proforma EBITDA is expected to be $450M-$470M. Proceeds from the sale will go towards paying down debt resulting in a net debt of $1 billion. Valuation looks attractive with shares trading at 9x-10x proforma EV/EBITDA. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $275M-$300M, or only 11x-12x the current market value. There is a $750M share buyback program in place which management indicated would be one of the best uses of capital at current share prices as long as leverage remains less than 3.5x adjusted EBITDA.
Under Armour (UA):
The company reported 3Q18 results which reflect ongoing operational improvements focused on several supply chain initiatives. North American revenue trends started to show signs of improvement and international sales remain strong. Margin expansion is a positive sign there was better product mix and less promotional activity.
The investment thesis remains the same. Kevin Plank started the company in 1996 from his grandma's basement and has grown the brand over the last 22 years. The Company has focused on creating a brand based on providing high quality performance apparel to athletes, growing with the sports apparel market and gaining share from Nike and Adidas. Since going public in 2006 through the end of 2016, sales grew greater than 20% a year. Starting in late 2016, sales and profitability slowed as North American sports apparel industry faced headwinds combined with several company specific setbacks.
Under Armour began restructuring efforts during 2017 to address the growing demand for athleisure apparel, improve supply chain and distribution, and increase focus on cost control. We believe the Under Armour brand remains strong and near-term operational issues have helped refocus the Company to thrive going forward.
Linamar Corporation (LIMAF):
Linamar is an auto-OEM headquartered near Toronto, Canada that we started to follow at the beginning of 2017. While auto manufacturers such as GM and Ford have provided lackluster returns to equity holders throughout their history, numerous auto-OEMs such as Linamar have performed much better.
Linamar benefits from its customers typically having higher switching costs, resulting from a 5-10 year production life cycles tied to contractual agreements, integrated processes, and long-term relationships. Several auto components are critical to the final product which creates a quality risk of switching to a new supplier. Linamar also operates on a global playing field providing some scale advantages.
Shares of companies touching the auto sector have reflected fears of peak cycle auto sales and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. While a preliminary NAFTA deal, renamed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), helps provide more clarity, tariffs or declining auto unit product are real risks and could potentially impact fundamentals.
Investing in a cyclical company at a potential peak could mean near-term fundamentals will deteriorate if auto unit production falls materially. Despite operating in a cyclical industry, Linamar has grown revenue and operating income at double digit rates over the last full auto-cycle benefitting from secular industry tailwinds from outsourcing of propulsion systems, growing market share, and making strategic acquisitions.
Further, Linamar's auto industry exposure has declined following the $933M acquisition of Macdon Industries in February 2018. The industrial segment which manufactures harvesting equipment and aerial work platforms made up nearly 50% of operating income in the last quarter. Most recently, 1H18 sales and operating income grew by 18% and 19%, respectively.
The amount of fear and downside baked into share prices looks extreme in our opinion. Linamar is selling for an expected 2018 P/E and EV/EBIT of 6x and 6.5x, respectively. Even if auto demand falls and unit volumes tumble, we expect Linamar to grow at a steady rate over the next full cycle. We do not care if over the next four years, a company earns a lumpy $100, $0, $0, $100 or steady $50, $50, $50, $50, as long as we believe the current valuation provides an attractive return on expected cash flows.
Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILAK):
As of 2Q results, Puerto Rico's network is nearly 100% restored since Hurricane Maria hit in Fall 2017. LILAK recently announced they are acquiring the remaining 40% of the Puerto Rico operating segment they did not already own by issuing 9.5 million shares for the purchase value of $185 million at the time of the transaction. Despite issuing undervalued equity in our opinion, we think this transaction makes sense and is expected to be accretive on a free cash flow per share basis. In 2016 before the impact of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico had sales and operating income of $421 million and $212 million respectively, providing an attractive purchase price not including assumed debt of ~2x operating income for the 40% of Puerto Rico they didn't already own.
Incumbent cable operators benefit from natural monopolies with recession resistant, utility-like characteristics. Once the large upfront investment in cable and wiring is built, maintenance costs are fairly nominal and the high costs of building an overlapping network keeps competitors away. The downside is having to build out the infrastructure, meaning the business is very capital intensive at the beginning. The expectation is that once the infrastructure is built and competition is negligible, free cash flow will jump.
In the U.S., cable systems are largely built out, therefore the only way to grow is through price inflation or acquisitions. Companies like Comcast and Charter Communications became as big as they are today by acquiring cable systems at relatively attractive valuations and then cutting corporate overhead costs. With the U.S. market largely saturated, less capital is required for growth so both companies are now experiencing higher levels of free cash flow.
LILAK is a dominant operator in the region and in a strong position to consolidate the fragmented region with many of its competitors burdened with heavier debt loads. The Company has faced several headwinds in recent years including operating/accounting issues following the 2016 Cable & Wireless acquisition and two consecutive years of bad hurricanes. A lot of cable system expansion and upgrades is still required to provide faster broadband service to households in Central and South America.
Overall growth has been pretty lackluster in recent years, but we expect LILAK to be able to grow operating income in the mid to high single digit range organically with the potential for further acquisitions, however most operating cash flow will be plowed back into the company to build out the infrastructure. The Company's most recent results reflect slower growth rates but the question is if this reflects temporary headwinds due to hurricane impacts and management reorganization. Regardless, we think the lower valuation multiple limits the downside of slower growth and provides strong upside if LILAK can start building some momentum.
Is now a good time to invest?
Over any extended period, we would expect the S&P 500 to provide somewhere between 6%-9% compounded returns. Over the last 30 years the S&P 500 has returned ~10%, comprised of 6% corporate earnings growth, 2% average dividend yield, and the extra 2% coming from a higher valuation placed on equities, which is largely influenced by interest rates. Future returns will come from the same components.
We generally try to avoid making any hardline projections, but 6%-9% seems like a reasonable expectation, although returns could be outside this range over any shorter 10-year period. With net income margins and valuations at the high-end of historic averages and interest rates near historic lows, it is not unreasonable to expect returns near the low end or even below this range over the next 10-year period.
While out with friends or family, we often get asked about what is going on in the market, usually referring to why stocks may be up or down in any given week. Our typical answer is, "we don't know." We truly do not know where the market is heading any more than how much snow is going to fall this winter, we just know it will snow. Over long periods of time we have strong conviction that the market will continue to march upward in intermittent fits and spurts.
The question of whether to invest or not invest is more of a personal one. When an individual or institution owns assets, they have to make an active decision of how to allocate those assets. Should they hold cash or invest in something else in an effort to generate more wealth in the future? Our view is if anyone knows they will need cash within the next few years, investing in public equities is more of a speculative activity. We've probably hammered the point to death that anything can happen in the markets over the short term and you do not want to find yourself selling assets at fire sale prices.
Once you determine the amount of cash you may need to hold, the question is what to do with everything else. Cash is one of the worst performing asset classes over time. Holding excess cash is an active investment decision and strikes us as somewhat risky since it is certain to lose value. It does provide optionality if other assets can be bought at a cheaper price at some point in the future, however trying to time the market also seems risky to us and people that believe they have the foresight to do so are typically proved wrong. For years many market "experts" have claimed we were due for a crash, recommending investors should prepare for the imminent collapse in the market. Think about all the value that was lost by those that moved to cash in 2009, or 2013, or 2016.
When it comes to holding cash in the Saga Portfolio, we prefer to be fully invested as long as we can find enough attractive opportunities. We are investment managers so we try to invest rather than act more as a bank account by holding cash for you. That said, we will only invest in opportunities that offer attractive expected returns. Given our current size and fairly concentrated strategy, we hope to find enough attractive ideas to usually be fully invested.
Howard Marks, a great investor and writer, recently published a book called Mastering the Market Cycle, where he states:
"the greatest way to optimize the positioning of a portfolio at a given point in time is through deciding what balance it should strike between aggressiveness and defensiveness. And I believe the aggressiveness/defensiveness balance should be adjusted over time in response to changes in the state of the investment environment and where a number of elements stand in their cycles."
Marks is saying there's a time for investors to be aggressive and a time to be defensive depending on where we might be in the market cycle. We couldn't agree more that the spring of 2009 was the time to be aggressive and the time to be defensive was summer of 2007, however investing hindsight is always 20/20. We have less confidence in our ability to know when to be aggressive or defensive, therefore we always invest as though we are about to face an imminent economic blow.
Even at the market lows of March 2009 where one could throw a dart at a target of random stocks and likely pick one providing double digit returns for years to come, we would still pick companies we want to own if the economy was still on the brink of another collapse. There are always risks to investing and the best thing to do when you own a house in an earthquake zone is to build a very sturdy house, and then buy insurance. We will never know when an earthquake will hit and how bad it will be, but we want to be prepared for whenever it does.
A strong investor base is a true competitive advantage in the investment management business. The success of the Portfolio requires investors that are stable, long-term, and realistic in their expectations. So far, we could not be happier in this regard. While investors have the ability to withdraw funds at any time, last month when the stock market suffered its worst month since 2011, instead of withdrawing funds several investors added money to their accounts.
We would love to continue to grow with like-minded investors. If you know someone potentially interested in an alternative strategy like the Saga Portfolio, feel free to forward on our information. Thank you again for trusting us with your hard-earned capital.
We hope you found this update helpful in understanding your portfolio. If you have any questions or comments please reach out, we are always happy to hear from you!
Joe Frankenfield, CFA


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DJ Fredy Muks Drops Cassava Ft. Korra Obidi
What has notable producer DJ Fredy Muks been up to recently? Well, now we know. The songster has just premiered "Cassava," a song featuring his friend Korra Obidi. It's a debut for both artistes on here at UbeToo.A first it might be, but the song is pretty intriguing. The blokes as well as the broads will have no qualms checking this song out.
The song isnt a new one, really, having popped online back in August. But of course it retains its charms, quietly bringing you into its euphonious orbit. Coming from celebrated performers, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.
DJ Fredy Muks is a songwriter and singer, known for songs like "Champ," and ""Show Me- Tell Me," among others. He shares great musical synergy with Korra Obidi, as should be obvious from this song.
Korra Obidi is a singer, dancer and actress and pretty good in all offices. Also, she has got a sterling voice that literally draws you in. so we wouldn't be surprised if you should find yourself listening to this song on repeat.
How would you rate"Cassava" by the pair? You may want to stream it below and join the conversation by dropping your thoughts in the comment section below.
DJ FREDY MUKS » Cassava (feat. Korra Obidi) » Single
- Genre: Worldwide
- Release Date: 2020-08-14
- Explicitness: notExplicit
- Country: ZAF
- Track Count: 1
- ℗ 2020 Muks Entertainment
Official Stream/Download Links


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Irish whiskey is back from the abyss - and booming. Here's why.
Legend says St Patrick drove all the snakes out of Ireland. What drove out the distillers? That's a more complex tale. (And a truer one, since archaeological records indicate Ireland never had any snakes.)
It once had more than 1000 distillers, though, ranging from those running tiny farm stills making poitin (think Irish moonshine) to some of the largest distilleries in the world. Despite a long history of taxation by the British, Irish whiskey survived, and by the mid-1800s, Irish distilleries were making whiskey that the world wanted to drink.
Yet between that time and the 1940s, a series of trials and tribulations all but crushed Irish whiskey, dropping the number of commercial distillers in the country to three.
How the category not only survived but also staged a comeback is a story that should have whiskey lovers raising an appreciative dram. New distilleries are popping up around the country, there is talk of a boom and many young makers are preserving the best traditions while exploring new directions.
"It's quite incredible the different corners of the world that Irish whiskey was found in," says Carol Quinn, archivist for Irish Distillers Pernod Ricard, which produces some of the best-known brands, including Jameson, Powers and Redbreast.
"In 1905, if you're in Cairo, you can get a glass of Powers Irish whiskey, no problem whatsoever. At the same time, Jameson was selling enough in Honolulu that they actually had a specific label for Honolulu printed up. We have records from Uruguay, New Zealand, Australia, Canada – you name it, and Irish whiskey is being sold there.... It's a global drink at that point."
What's more, Quinn says, "it was a high-quality, high-status drink. If you were the type of person who enjoyed fine cognac or a good champagne, you drank Irish whiskey, and you expected to pay a little more for it, because you knew you were drinking a luxury product."
Prohibition and a trade war
The early 20th century brought major challenges: Prohibition in America not only closed off a major market, but it also damaged Irish whiskey's reputation, Quinn says. Some bootleggers were falsely selling under an "Irish whiskey" label because they knew they could charge more. Americans who tried this hooch probably found it "foul, fiery and burning," which made it more challenging for the real whiskey to come back after the 18th Amendment was repealed.
Irish whiskey hung on, but a trade war between Ireland and the United Kingdom in the 1930s was disastrous, "because that's when you lose all the markets associated with the British Empire," Quinn says.
Other whiskey-making countries, especially Scotland, gained market share with their blended expressions, while in Ireland, distillery after distillery closed down. In 1966, the three remaining Irish companies, John Jameson, John Power and Cork, merged to form Irish Distillers and consolidated their production; in 1988, Irish Distillers became a subsidiary of Pernod Ricard. That 1966 merger and the later acquisition – which gave the company access to Pernod Ricard's global marketing capacity – did a lot to get Irish whiskey back on a path to survival.
So did John Teeling, who in the late 1980s, after years of planning and work, ended Irish Distillers' longtime monopoly when he launched Cooley Distillery. His sons, Stephen and Jack, went on to launch Teeling Whiskey, initially using stocks of Cooley's whiskey, after Cooley sold to booze giant Beam Suntory in 2012. Teeling is the first new distillery in Dublin in 125 years.
Now, says Stephen Teeling, "we're trying to revive some of the heritage and innovative ways in which Irish whiskey is made going back generations", while also trying to make it relevant for newer whiskey consumers by innovating with different grains (the mash bill) and aging in different types of casks.
From 60pc to 1pc of world market
Irish whiskey, Teeling says, "went from 60 per cent of the world's whiskey market to just 1 per cent in the '80s. It was just devastating.... But since Pernod Ricard has come in and a few other new innovations, Irish whiskey has been the fastest-growing grain spirit in the world, really blazing a trail... in the US, it's been growing double digits for the last 10, 15 years." In fact, according to DISCUS, since 2003, gross revenue for Irish whiskey is up more than 1000 per cent, with the biggest gains at the high end of the category.
Clearly, plenty of people like Irish whiskey. Do you? That depends on your tastes, of course, but if your ideas about what Irish whiskey is have been shaped by sports-bar party shots from one particularly ubiquitous bottle, you're in for some surprises.
Pages of legalese and distillerese go into defining types of whiskey and how they're made, but an extremely brief distillation: "Irish whiskey" must be distilled and matured in Ireland, and be aged in wood for a minimum of three years. The whiskeys fall into one of three types: pot-still, malt or grain (a fourth category, blended, can be made with these three varieties). Pot still is made from a combination of malted barley, unmalted barley and other unmalted cereals; malt is made from 100 per cent malted barley ("single malts" are malt whiskeys from a single distillery); grain whiskey from malted barley and other unmalted grains.
Beyond those legalities, as whiskey writer Lew Bryson points out in his book Tasting Whiskey, as soon as you try to define Irish whiskey, you notice exceptions. Not all Irish whiskeys are triple-distilled, not all Irish whiskey is blended. "Knock your head against it long enough, and you'll realise the glib answer is the correct one: Irish whiskey is whiskey that's made in Ireland," Bryson writes.
But he says Irish is a great place to start getting into the whiskey world. "Well over half of Irish whiskey is drunk straight," he says. "I think there's a direct reason for that: It's the approachability of the whiskey. 'Smooth' is an overused term, but you can't avoid it when you talk about Irish whiskey."
That said, "if all you've ever had is Jameson, it will give you one impression", says Philip Duff, a spirits educator who's doing some consumer education for the Knappogue Castle line of Irish single malts. "Think about Tennessee whiskey. Ninety-nine per cent sold is Jack Daniel's, but most people drinking it don't know that, and don't know what Tennessee whiskey is, and don't know the other brands. It's not quite that extreme, but Irish whiskey is dominated by Jameson sales, and that defines the category to a large degree."
"Jamo", as it's often referred to by dude-bros, is a lighter, blended whiskey, and it's by far the best-selling Irish whiskey in the world. It's helped carry the category and been a massive success story. Several sources reminded me (in a way that suggested they were really trying to remind themselves) that "there's nothing wrong with Jameson".
But it's a frustration to aficionados that Jameson's the only Irish whiskey many people have tasted. Back in the golden age, Duff says, Irish whiskey "was all single malt or pure pot still, extensively aged, and there was no pressure on bigger producers to cut corners, because they could charge a high price". Such whiskeys tend to be bigger, deeper and richer than the lighter Jameson blend millions think represents Irish whiskey.
Beyond 'Jamo'
For drinkers trying to branch out, Bryson says, he'd start them off on a specific bridge: Redbreast, which like Jameson is made at Irish Distillers' facility in Midleton. "Jameson is a blended whiskey, it's a good blended whiskey, but Redbreast is the heart of [what] makes that blend. Once they've had Redbreast, I'd try them on another single pot still . . . Bushmill's 16, the three wood. Tullamore [D.E.W.] Phoenix, a blended cask-strength Irish that delivers. Almost anything Teeling puts in a bottle."
The whiskey boom in Ireland and the wave of new players makes some whiskey lovers a little nervous. They worry that the drive to make a buck with cheap whiskey or marketing gimmicks will damage the category.
But overall, there's a great deal of excitement. "It is a bit of a gold rush with distilleries in Ireland," Duff says. "We'll see some great innovation, and we'll also see tons of stupid stuff, 'Unicorn Tears Whiskey'! Already there are all these absurd 'legendary people from Irish history' brand names being invented... But for every 'Unicorn Tears Whiskey' or whatever there will be a Knappogue Castle – something really remarkable."
It's very rewarding, says Stephen Teeling, when he shares their whiskey with someone and they say, "Jeez, I never knew Irish whiskey could taste like that." With all the new expressions that will be popping up in the coming years, we'll probably be hearing that a lot.
8 Irish whiskies worth meeting
Along with Jameson, Tullamore D.E.W. and Bushmills are two hugely popular lighter Irish blends. But if you want to go a little deeper in your Irish whiskey explorations, try some of these:
- Redbreast 12-Year-Old Single Pot Still (40 per cent alcohol by volume): The classic pot still Irish – a big, rich, spicy whiskey full of dried fruit notes, nuttiness and a sherry note from the Oloroso casks it's aged in.
- Teeling Irish Single Grain (46 per cent ABV): Bourbon lovers might be particularly interested in trying this one, which has a 95 per cent corn mashbill. Aged in ex-California Cabernet wine barrels, it has lovely vanilla, dried fruit, pepper and toffee notes.
- Glendalough 13-Year-Old Mizunara Finish Single Malt Irish Whiskey (46 per cent): This whiskey spent most of its years in ex-bourbon barrels but was finished in rare Japanese Mizunara oak; the result is a long, nutty, almost chocolaty finish - just beautiful.
- Tyrconnell 16-Year-Old single malt (40 per cent ABV): Lovely almond and roasted pineapple notes. Tyrconnell whiskeys are known for green apple and citrus flavours, which come from the even climate and double distillation.
- Green Spot Single Pot Still (40 per cent ABV): Spicy, honeyed, caramelly - another classic Irish pot still whiskey.
- Knappogue Castle 12-Year Single Malt (40 per cent ABV): It's mellow and fruity with notes of vanilla-butter and a bit of clove and other spices.
- Connemara Peated Single Malt (40 per cent ABV): The rare Irish whiskey that dries its barley using peat. It combines the honeyed, mellow spice character Irish whiskey is known for with a smoky peat note that it definitely isn't.
- The Dead Rabbit Irish whiskey (44 per cent ABV): Produced in partnership with Sean Muldoon and Jack McGarry, the founders of New York City's much-lauded Irish bar, this is a nice blend of Irish single malt and grain whiskeys, with a good hit of vanilla and spice.
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DC released a first look at the cover to November's Justice League #3 by Jim Lee and Scott Williams.
Written by GEOFF JOHNS
Art and cover by JIM LEE and SCOTT WILLIAMS
1:25 Variant cover by GREG CAPULLO
1:200 B&W Variant cover by JIM LEE
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The superstar team of writer Geoff Johns and artist Jim Lee continue to make history as they unleash the amazing Amazon, Wonder Woman, who joins the battle against a bizarre threat! And the not-yet World's Greatest Heroes need all the help they can get!
This issue is also offered as a special combo pack edition, polybagged with a redemption code for a digital download of the issue.


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Montgomery County officials today announced the first death from COVID-19. The deceased is a 72-year-old male Abington Township resident who had been hospitalized for several days. He passed on March 21st.
"Today, we are deeply saddened to announce the first loss of life to COVID-19 in Montgomery County. On behalf of our entire community, we extend our most heartfelt condolences to the loved ones of this individual," said Dr. Valerie A. Arkoosh, Chair, Montgomery County Board of Commissioners. "While most people with COVID-19 exhibit mild or moderate symptoms, this loss of life underscores the urgent need for everyone to stay at home, unless absolutely necessary, to protect individuals who are particularly vulnerable to developing more serious illness, including the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, as well as our critical workforces like healthcare workers and first responders."
Additionally, Montgomery County officials and the Office of Public Health reported 33 additional individuals who tested positive with COVID-19 since yesterday's update, bringing the countywide total to 110 cases. One of the new cases is a 26-year-old female in Whitemarsh Township. All together, Conshohocken, Plymouth Township, and Whitemarsh Township have one positive result each.
"While this is the largest single-day total of individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Montgomery County, given the increased access to testing over the past week, including the Community Based Testing Center which opened on Friday, we fully anticipated seeing an increase in the number of positive individuals," said Arkoosh.
You can see all the data here.


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A new form has been added to the "IT" application in TeamDynamix. The form is called "ONID Password Assistance"
Made available on June 29th, 2020 – 11:45am
To help you and the customer with the ONID password change process, and provide the Identity and Access Management group more information for the continual improvement of the ONID password change process.
How to find the form?
- Create a new ticket in the "IT" application
- In the "form" area at the top, search for "ONID Password Assistance" and select it.


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Ela opening
The bar-restaurant takes over the Queen Village spot last occupied by Ansill.
Jason Cichonski and Chip Roman are going with 11/11/11 for the opening of Ela, their rustic-meets-modern bar-restaurant in Queen Village that will counterpoise their fancier, "progressive American" Mica in Chestnut Hill. Roman made the map with Blackfish in Conshohocken.
The chefs have taken the former home of Ansill and Judy's Cafe at Third and Bainbridge Streets (267-687-8512) for a restaurant suitable for drop-ins and destination diners.
They're calling the approach "serious yet comfortable," describing an approachable menu of innovative dishes, such as hamachi with green apple, horseradish and truffles; baby beets with brie, quince and cardamom; sweet potato soup with porcini and coffee caramel; popcorn panacotta with paddlefish caviar, asparagus and shrimp; foie gras with parsley root, ginger bread and huckleberry; diver scallops served with root vegetables, blood oranges and black sesame; duck magret with pretzel spaetzle, brussels sprouts and smoked butternut squash puree; gnocchi with maitake mushrooms, cauliflower and Japanese pumpkin; black cod served with red cabbage, sunchokes and whole grain mustard; pork belly with broccoli rabe, pears and served with a sour dough risotto; hot chocolate chip cookie dough with vanilla semifreddo and banana; and whipped pumpkin pie with pumpkin seed praline, candied ginger and figs. Dishes will range in price from $8 to $23.
They plan as many as 25 craft beers (with six rotating on draft), cocktails, and 20 domestic and imported wines available by the glass via 16-bottle Cruvinet system.
Stokes Design used dark wood paneling, reclaimed thin-board pine flooring, steel ceiling fans, whitewashed brick walls and metal-and-glass shelving behind the bar; a 15-seat bar running the length of the room; bright and airy main dining space, home to 40 seats at wood-block tables with red chairs. A second dining space, used for a la carte dining and for private events, is adjacent to the kitchen and offers additional seating for 20 guests.
It will be open for dinner Sunday through Thursday from 5:30 p.m. until 10 p.m. and Friday and Saturday until 11 p.m.


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Juventus fear they have missed out on the chance to take Paul Pogba back to Turin.
The Bianconeri sold the Frenchman to Manchester United for a then world record fee of £89million in the summer of 2016.
Pogba had failed to repay the price tag and struggled in particular in the first half of this season.
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The midfielder endured a tumultuous relationship with Jose Mourinho and was seen by television cameras during a frosty exchange with his ex-boss earlier in the campaign.
But Mourinho's dismissal and the arrival of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Old Trafford has seen Pogba take on a new lease of life.
He struck twice as United hammered Bournemouth 4-1 on Sunday, their third successive win since the baby-faced assassin took the reins.
And Juve now fear their best chance of re-signing Pogba has gone now Mourinho is no longer in the dugout at the Theatre of Dreams.
Solskjaer has made no secret of his desire to build a team around Pogba, and was full of praise for the World Cup winner after the Bournemouth win.
"The one against Bournemouth was an exceptional performance for a midfielder," he said.
"Pogba has the rhythm of play, he is dangerous in the penalty area, he wins the aerial duels and physical duels.
"I want to see him always having fun and expressing his talent."


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The Real Reason The Guest List For The Princess Diana Statue Unveiling Is So Small
The unveiling of a statue of Princess Diana in Kensington Palace may not be the event many thought it would be. A Kensington Palace spokesperson has emphasized that this will be a very intimate event. Many believed that friends and loved ones would attend the unveiling, but it's more scaled-down than admirers imagined.
"This is a small event and a very personal moment for the family," a royal source told The Mirror. "Plans have been scaled back due to the current COVID-19 restrictions and media arrangements reflect both the size and tone of the event."
A Kensington Palace spokesperson confirmed an intimate guest list in a statement to Us Weekly. It read, "Prince William and Prince Harry will attend a small event to mark the unveiling of a statue they commissioned of their mother, Diana, Princess of Wales, in the Sunken Garden at Kensington Palace on Thursday 1st July."
Furthermore, "In addition to close family of Diana, Princess of Wales, members of the statue committee, the sculptor Ian Rank-Broadley, and garden designer, Pip Morrison, will also be present."
It seems Kate won't even be in attendance
Both Prince Harry and Prince William's wives have made concerted efforts to connect with their late mother-in-law's memory. It's been known for some time that Harry's wife, Meghan Markle, will not attend as she recently welcomed their second child, Lilibet "Lili" Diana Mountbatten-Windsor (per Harper's Bazaar).
Growing closer to the event, it's also been made clear that Kate Middleton will also not attend. This is despite the fact that the statue is being unveiled on the grounds of Kensington Palace, where the Cambridge family lives. It's been explained that Kate will skip the event to make room per the COVID-19 protocols (per The Mirror).
Still, William and Harry reportedly both feel the less attendees, the better. "The princes worked very hard to create something that would be inclusive and truly honor their mother's positive contributions to the world," a source told Best Life. "Having to cut their list down to 30 guests would surely result in a lot of hurt feelings, which William and Harry certainly didn't want, but it's nonetheless disappointing."


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