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Exhibitionin San Francisco, CA / United States
Sam Perry's carved wood sculptures are testaments to the passage of time and are imbued with a respect for craft and precision. Sourced from fallen trees, the wood has already lived a lifetime before Perry begins transforming it into sculpture. With patience and precision, Perry carves, sands, polishes, and splines with an awareness of the material's history and a desire to "find" the sculpture hidden within the bole. "Looking at a fallen tree is like observing a person and wondering about their past," says Perry, a sentiment reflecting both his careful consideration as an artist and his deep reverence for his chosen material.
The temptation to anthropomorphize is strong when looking at Perry's sculptures, and becomes profound in the context of the breadth of his work. The grounded solidity of the most recent pieces feels mature, settled, close to the earth; they are often self‐contained, inward, and reflective. This is evident in loops curving in on themselves, melding together to form autonomous units, and in individual forms overlapping to create new ones. This differs from the sense of searching found in some of his earlier works which tend to reach outward in questioning gestures to the space around them. While the investigation continues, a sense of maturity has been realized through time and experience.
Sam Perry was born in Kailua, Hawai'i where he worked as a child in his father's canoe shop. Originally working in ceramics, he received both his BFA (1986) and MFA (1990) from California College of Arts and Crafts. After graduating, he took a position as studio assistant to Viola Frey, which he maintained for over 20 years. His sculptures are included in the collections of the di Rosa Preserve and the Runnymede Sculpture Farm. He lives and works in Oakland, CA.
Gallery hours Tues-Sat 11 am – 5 pm, and by appointment
Rena Bransten Projects
1275 Minnesota St. #210
94107 San Francisco, CA
United States


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Table of Contents
Download Shirley (2020) – As renowned for her morose nature as she is for her horror fiction, writer Shirley Jackson (Elizabeth Moss) is crafting yet another masterpiece when the arrival of newlyweds Fred and Rose disrupt her creative process and marriage to a literary critic – and philandering professor – Stanley Hyman (Michael Stuhlbarg). As Stanley spars to maintain academic dominance over his would-be protégé Fred, Rose attempts to dampen her own ambitions and adjust to married life while living under the roof of their fiery intellectual hosts with quicksilver loyalties and myriad neuroses. When the motives of Shirley's literary muse prove elusive, Rose's curiosity and trusting nature make her tender prey for a brilliant author whose only allegiance is to her work.
Runtime: 107 Min
Release Date: 5 June 2020
Language: English
Genres: Biography, Drama, Thriller
Director: Josephine Decker
Starcast: Elisabeth Moss, Odessa Young, Michael Stuhlbarg, Logan Lerman, Victoria Pedretti, Robert Wuhl, Paul O'Brien, Orlagh Cassidy, Bisserat Tseggai, Allen McCullough, Tony Manna, Molly Fahey, Edward O'Blenis, Ryan Spahn, Vincent McCauley
IMDb: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8430598/
Size: 337 MB

subset: commoncrawl


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What In The World?
Amy Summers and Karl Koelle became friends in college. After leaving Iowa City, they each went their own way but remained in touch. After years of trying various diets and options, Amy found something that worked – she believed in herself. She started to get fit, lose weight and keep it off.
Karl was living in Kansas City and came to his own realization. Looking for a jump start, he started talking to his old friend and he found it. This picture was taken after our first Spartan race in 2017. 8 miles of mud and determination that changed both of our lives…
Our Approach
Where We Came From
As we got ourselves stronger, others were drawn in by the success they were seeing. At first there were two, then four, then more and more 1DOS sharks. Now there are more than 350 members of our group, and we are growing fast.
We discovered that as much as we loved improving ourselves, watching others set crazy goals and smash them was what really lit our fires.
Our Story
The Founders
We certainly are not alone, but we were the first ones here. Driving the Foundation forward has become our calling, and we look forward to working with you.
Amy Summers
Founder & CEO
Amy is a Nurse Practitioner and mother of five, working two jobs and still making time for herself. Helping others challenge themselves is her passion, and her mantra is "progress, not perfection."
After a lifetime of diets, weight loss surgery, trying everything under the sun, she found the answer – healthy diet and exercise. Now down 100 pounds, she works to help others reach their goals.
Read her stories at https://fatheartfitgirl.blogspot.com/.
Karl Koelle
Founder & Treasurer
In April 2016, Karl weighed in at 323. After losing 95 pounds in a year, he has completed two Spartan trifectas, multiple 10Ks, two half marathons, and a 200 mile Ragnar relay.
He hopes to help others realize they truly can achieve whatever they strive for!
Read his stories at www.karlkoelle.com/blog.
I'd Like to Help!!
We are always in need of more sharks. You can help us help others by volunteering your miles at your next race, or more directly at the button below.


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SketchbooksRobertson, Frances (2018) Sketchbooks. In: Looking for signs: ideas and imagined circumstances. Graphical House, Glasgow, pp. 97-101. ISBN 9781999712624
|Robertson, Frances
A critical essay with focus on thinking through drawing as manifested in Jimmy Cosgrove's archive of sketchbooks published in the collected volume of essays that accompanied the exhibition 'Looking for Signs: ideas and imagined circumstances' that presented a retrospective view of the work, life and teaching of Jimmy Cosgrove at the Studio Pavilion of the House for an Art Lover 27 July-16 September 2018. The sketchbooks show a hidden thread of artistic development and drawing techniques not just in the work of Cosgrove but reflect changing philosophies in art and design practice during the time if their making, and changing pedagogies and practices in GSA.
|Output Type:
|Book Section
|Uncontrolled Keywords:
|drawing, surface, design, new, media, print, culture, design, education, 20th century
|Schools and Departments:
|School of Design
|Output ID:
|Deposited By:
|Frances Robertson
|Deposited On:
|02 Apr 2019 15:32
|Last Modified:
|02 Apr 2019 15:32
GSA Staff Only: request a change | Repository Staff Only: item control page


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Are you looking for information about Office Detailing 07950?
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Evelyn Salt (Angelina Jolie) is a CIA agent accused of working for the Russians. When that happens, her world comes crashing down and she runs. The runs away all movie long, from bad guys trained to track you down no matter where you are. She jumps from one moving truck to another. She jumps like spiderwoman down elevator shafts, and as she goes along the knocks out cold other CIA operatives with her bare hands, "eliminates" an entire team of Russian ruffians, one action scene after another.
Do not look for a plot. There is one, but it's weak and contrived. Do not look for many characters, because they are shallow. But do look for Evelyn with blond hair, dark hair, long hair, short hair, boy hair, girl hair. She is a master of disguise and a master of resurrection when shot, dumped out of flying helicopters, coming out of gas-filled rooms – but I ramble.
It's an action movie, actually a pretty good one. If you can turn off your brain for a couple of hours and just enjoy.
Rating: **


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Tom Cavanagh has been a series regular in every season of The Flash to date. However, unlike his castmates on the hit series, Cavanagh has played several characters throughout the run. Now that the long-awaited seventh season has begun, the question remains. Who will Tom Cavanagh be playing this season?
When The Flash first premiered in 2014, Cavanagh played paralysed Star Labs founder Harrison Wells – who was in actuality an imposter, villainous speedster Eobard Thawne, as well as playing the real Wells in flashbacks.
Since the second season, the show's multiverse or parallel worlds concept has allowed Cavanagh to play several iterations of the Wells character. Referred to as 'doppelgangers', each have hailed from an alternate Earth while also possessing different skillskets and personality traits.
Those who have joined Team Flash at different points include: anti-social but well-intentioned scientist Harry Wells, clueless author HR Wells, French detective Sherloque Wells and most recently, adventurer Nash Wells. Cavanagh has also played several other versions in minor roles, such as the Council of Wells and wizard Wells the Grey, during various episodes of The Flash.
Following the crossover event Crisis on Infinite Earths, Nash Wells became the last surviving doppelganger with a physical body. After all other Earths in the original multiverse were destroyed, every other Wells took up residence in Nash's mind, often appearing to him as visions that only he could see.
However, in The Flash Season 7 premiere, "All's Well That Ends Wells", Nash and his counterparts elect to sacrifice themselves as an "organic receptor" to power an artificial speed force that ultimately restores Barry Allen's powers. As well as playing Nash in the episode, Cavanagh also portrayed several fan favourite Wells, including Harry, Sherloque and the late HR, all of whom bid farewell to their old friend Barry Allen.
Nash Wells died after a climatic and emotional farewell, which also seemed to be Tom Cavanagh's final appearance on The Flash. It was later confirmed by The CW that Cavanagh was still involved with the show.
Showrunner Eric Wallace revealed this to Entertainment Weekly, "Tom Cavanagh is still part of the show. I would just say that we've already seen there's an infinite numbers of Wellses. Just because they're all dead doesn't mean that should change. And Tom Cavanagh has more to do in season 7 — much more to do."
There are already hints being laid about where Cavanagh's character storyline is heading in upcoming episodes. In fact, Cavanagh resurfaced at the conclusion of season 7 episode 2, "The Speed of Thought", which revealed the original Harrison Wells seemingly reanimating from his roadside grave, where he had been buried by Eobard Thawne prior to Season 1.
After spending the entire first season with a counterfeit, will Team Flash finally meet the real Earth-1 Harrison Wells? It seems to be pointing in that direction.
The Flash airs Tuesdays 8/7c on The CW.


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Hayley Burson
Participates in 2 items
Hayley and her husband, Michael, are both avid Harry Potter fans as well as costume makers, and they specialize in creating screen replications from the Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts films. Her favorite cosplays include Queenie Goldstein, Luna Lovegood, Hermione Granger, and Lily Potter. Hayley is a librarian and chapter organizer for a Harry Potter Alliance chapter in Charlotte, NC, called the Mecklenburg Marauders. She is also part of the podcast Hold My Butterbeer. When not working on cosplays or recording, you can find Hayley practicing yoga, playing The Sims, parkouring around the Wizarding World of Harry Potter, quoting The Office, and drinking red wine. Find her on Instagram at @hobbitparty.
Sessions in which Hayley Burson participates
- Harry Potter and the Question of Canon Seaport World Trade Center - Beacon Hill Complex
- 10:15 AM EDT - 11:15 AM EDT | 1 hour
- As Potter fans move further away from the core novels and into the realms of Fantastic Beasts, Cursed Child, the Universal parks, Wiz...
- Panel
- Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Harry Potter Cosplay Seaport World Trade Center - Cityview Ballroom
- 10:15 AM EDT - 11:15 AM EDT | 1 hour
- Whether you are new to cosplaying for Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts or curious to learn new techniques, our expert panel of cospl...
- Panel


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Cincinnati Parks Reopens Road Through Eden Park's Twin Lakes
Cincinnati Parks has reopened Eden Park's Twin Lakes to vehicular traffic after concerns were raised about the "unintended impacts" of its closure.
The Cincinnati Park Board approved a proposal to indefinitely close the driveway running through the Twin Lakes overlook area on Thursday, May 7.
The closure was recommended by staff who say vehicle/pedestrian safety along Lake Drive is a problem with the road bisecting the area.
However, some argued the closure made accessing the park less safe.
"In the weeks since the announcement of the indefinite closure, significant community concerns have been raised about the unintended impacts of the closure," City Manager Patrick Duhaney wrote in a June 15 memo to the Park Board. "Specifically, the concerns center around the reduction in parking and ease of access to the park for those who travel to Twin Lakes from throughout the city. As a result, the previous Park Board decision was reevaluated and the gates were reopened on Saturday, June 13."
Parks Director Kara Kish on May 7 told board members the majority of public comments received at the time supported closing the road, though there were a few concerned about parking and some neighbors worried about the increase in traffic on nearby residential streets.


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- Research article
- Open Access
- Published:
A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making volume 20, Article number: 143 (2020)
2436 Accesses
23 Citations
As a kind of widely distributed disease in China, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been quickly growing each year, become a serious problem and caused serious damage to the life and health of people and the social events of China and the world because of its high fatality rate. It has been much concerned by all aspects of society. Therefore, developing early warning technology and finding the trend of early development are of quite significance to prevent and control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS. This study aimed to explore a suitable model for the morbidity of AIDS in China and establish a professional and feasible disease prediction model for the prevention and control works of AIDS.
At present, the traditional linear model is still utilized by most scholars to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS. In addition, some scholars may attempt to use the nonlinear prediction model. Both prediction models showed good fitting and prediction effects. In China, the incidence of AIDS presents linear and nonlinear characteristics. In this research, the nonlinear back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model and the typical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) linear model were applied to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS and compare their fitting effects.
Both models were capable of predicting the expected cases of AIDS. It was seen that ARIMA and BP-ANN models could be used to forecast the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS, but the fitting and forecasting effects of the nonlinear BP neural network model were better than those of the traditional linear ARIMA model.
In summary, it was further concluded that the BP-ANN model was a suitable way to monitor and predict the change trend and morbidity of AIDS in China.
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a deadly virus weakening and attacking the immunity system, which can induce Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) that is recognized as one of notifiable communicable diseases around the world [1]. During the last decades, AIDS has been seen as an epidemic that becomes a serious public health problem and social event all over the world, causes serious damage to the life and health of people and affects all aspects of society. In the global context, 36.9 million people were carried with HIV, and 0.94 million people died of HIV-associated diseases by the end of 2017 [2]. Since 1998, the number of provinces affected by HIV/AIDS has reached 31, which still sees a rapid increase in China [3]. The epidemic of AIDS/HIV has been worsened to pose serious threats to public health. Each year, it seems that new infection cases are increasing in China [4, 5]. In 2015, about 571,000 people (15 years old and above) were infected with HIV [6].
Therefore, it is a must to prevent and control the prevalence of AIDS in China. A number of policies on the prevention and control works of HIV disease have been issued by the government. In order to supervise the spread of HIV/AIDS, the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System was organized in 1995, and the surveillance data for primarily affected populations was collected [7, 8]. Since 2004, this system has been applied to monitor the prevalence of HIV and HIV-related behaviors [9].
Over the past few years, mathematical models have been used to successfully predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS. In the 1980s, the model suggested by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) was adopted to forecast HIV-infected patients in many countries so as to identify the growing trend of the disease. The methods are the Workbook Method [10], Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) method [11], Spectrum AIDS Impact Model [12] as well as Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) [13]. Due to the changing incidence of AIDS, it is necessary to think through its influence factors. In these models, adequate indicators are required to fit in different estimation and prediction curves about the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS. Otherwise, the results will greatly deviate from the actual situation. The features of four models are as follows, Workbook, the parameters required are some relatively fixed demographic indicators, including local adult population, gender composition, base of various high-risk groups and high and low values of infection rates, base of various low-risk groups and high and low values of infection rates, etc. [10]. Spectrum AIDS Impact Model, HIV-infected people receive Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) to extend their survival time. The change in survival time will affect the prediction results of SPECTRUM [14]. EPP, the number of people receiving treatment has increased with the promotion and use of condoms. The improvement of treatment methods and other prevention and control works have reduced the quality and representativeness of monitored data, which exerts a direct influence on EPP's estimation and prediction of epidemic situations [15]. AEM, its monitoring indicators have a large number of difficult items. Monitoring data has high-quality requirements. Only on the premise of sufficient data and quality assurance can appropriate model parameters be obtained. Then, predictions can be made. Otherwise, major mistakes are easy to make [16].
Also known as the historical extension prediction method, the time series prediction method is a kind of historical data extension prediction that is a method of extrapolating and predicting the development trend of things, which can be reflected by time series. More common traditional time series prediction methods include the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, exponential smoothing method, etc., among which ARIMA is the most representative. Considered as one of the major ways to make time series analysis, the ARIMA model involves the changes of trends, random interference and periodic variations and the invariance of other related random variables during time series analysis. Earnest et al. believed that the ARIMA model was quite easy and fast to set related parameters on the prediction of communicable diseases [17]. The establishment of the ARIMA model requires collecting relevant historical data, processing data in advance according to its stability requirements, drawing the diagram of autocorrelation coefficients and partial correlation coefficients to determine the optimal model and finally use it to predict the development trend. Nowadays, ARIMA is used to estimate the mortality of influenza, malaria and other infectious diseases.
In most cases, nonlinear structures are adopted during time series analysis as adequate results cannot be obtained from linear models. In many domains, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is applied due to its possibility of getting over the limitations of linear models [18] and analyzing the strongly-coupled and highly-nonlinear correlations between multiple input and output variables. In nonlinear artificial neural network models, particularly the Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN), the BP-ANN model can improve prediction accuracy close to various functions of arbitrary nonlinear structures [19], and accommodate more multidimensional inputs to improve the accuracy of predictions because of its inherent self-learning property, simple structure and strong simulation ability.
The data of AIDS incidence in China has shown a coexistence of linearity and nonlinearity. In this paper, it was suggested that the nonlinear relationships should exist for the monthly morbidity of AIDS while accuracy relations should not be extracted from the linear model. Two models, namely ARIMA and BP-ANN, were established to forecast the morbidity of HIV/AIDS during the period of 2007–2016. By comparison, the future growing trend of HIV/AIDS was described for early detection and warning.
ARIMA model
As a common linear model in time series analysis, the ARIMA model is usually constructed as ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) S, p, d, q, P, D, Q and S refer to autoregressive order, number of difference, moving average order, seasonal autoregressive order, number of seasonal difference, seasonal moving average order and time-series of cyclical pattern respectively. Graphs of Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) were utilized to determine the ARIMA model [20]. The construction of an optimal model needed to think about minimum Bayesian Information Criterions (BIC) and stable multi-correlation coefficient, statistically significant parameter estimates and residuals as white noise. The ARIMA model was constructed through former forecasting errors and past series values, and developed according to the following procedures: Diagnostic checking, estimation and identification. During the identification process, the ACF and PACF of transformed information would determine seasonal and non-seasonal orders. Conditional least-squares modes were used to estimate parameters. During the diagnosis process, white noise tests were conducted to verify the adequacy of the model in the series and check whether residuals were independently and positively distributed. In this way, a few ARIMA models would be possibly identified [21]. Finally, a suitable model would be selected to forecast morbidity.
BP-ANN model
As one of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, ANN has been generally applied to fit in nonlinear models with the capability of recognizing the principles of accurate forecasting and offering help to make decisions [22]. A large number of connected nonlinear units are contained in the ANN model for data storage self-learning process [23]. Among ANN models, the BP-ANN model is a type of multi-layered feed forward neural network.
As a system with learning ability, ANN can develop knowledge so as to exceed the original knowledge level of designers. Its learning and training methods can be divided into two types: One is supervised or tutored learning in which given sample criteria are used for classification or imitation; the other is unsupervised or untutored learning in which only learning styles or certain rules are set and the specific learning content varies with the environment (namely the situation of input signal) of the system that can automatically find the characteristics and regularity of the environment.
ANN is an implicit mathematical processing method and a typical black-box modeling tool. In general, it is only necessary to give the input and output data of the modeling object instead of knowing its structure, parameters and dynamic characteristics. Through the training of information samples, the neural network can have the brain's ability of memory and recognition. Without any prior formulas or modeling, the ANN can self-learn, obtain the mapping relationship between input and output from existing data, store the mapping relationship in each neuron in the form of multigroup weights and thresholds to constitute network knowledge, and use it to predict similar factors. Neural network models are widely used in signal processing, pattern recognition, control, analysis and prediction and other aspects because of their nonlinear characteristics, numerous parallel distribution structures as well as learning and inductive ability.
Three layers of the BP-ANN model architecture were contained in the paper, which including the input layer, the hidden layer, and the output layer. Each layer has at least one neuron, which connects to neurons in different layers. The classic structure is shown in Fig. 1. This structure is simple, clarity and can enable each neuron to establish a suitable linear or non-linear relationship between input and output, while without limiting in output between − 1 and 1. The core of BP-ANN is each neuron in the input layer as an independent variable; the hidden layer is responsible for internal operations (imitating the human brain), especially non-linear operations; each neuron in the output layer represents a dependent variable. The calculation of BP-ANN is to find the minimum value of the error function.
Model validation and statistical comparisons
Based on the same training set, ARIMA and BP-ANN models were subsequently established to forecast exclusively experimental information. The validity of these models was evaluated by cross validation. Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used to make a statistical comparison of forecast and real morbidity.
Information analysis based on computer software
The ARIMA model was analyzed by using software SPSS26 and Eviews6.0. Neural Network Toolbox in Matlab 2019 was used to evaluate the BP-ANN model. All the analysis results showed significant differences, namely P < 0.05.
Data sources
According to the report on statutory infectious diseases in China, the monthly data about China's AIDS cases reported from January 2004 to December 2016 was collected as the original data to establish the models, to predict the incidence of AIDS in 2017. Compare forecast incidence of AIDS and actual incidence of 2017, to verify the model fitting effect.
In ARIMA model, The monthly incidence of AIDS in China from 2004 to 2016 was modeled, and predicting the monthly incidence in 2017. The actual value of monthly incidence in 2017 was used as a reference to verify the model. In BP-ANN model, the set of information was classified into three subsets, namely training, validation and test sets. In the training set, the incidence data of the past three years was used to predict the incidence of the fourth year in validation set. The incidence rate in January of t1-t3 years was used to estimate that in January of the t4 year; the incidence rate in February of t1-t3 years was used to estimate that in February of the t4 year, and so on. Then, the incidence rate in the same month of t2-t4 years was used to predict that in the same month of the t5 year, the same month of t3-t5 years was used to predict the incidence rate of the same month of the t6 year, in turns. Finally, the data of 2017 was selected as the test set to verify network performance. All incidence data were numbered in chronological order, with P1, P2 and P13 representing respectively the incidence data in January 2004, February 2004 and January 2005, and so on. The specific data diversity is presented in the following Table 1. Such data diversity method could be adopted to better learn and train network models, and avoid overlearning and overfitting [24].
Features of time series analysis in the report rate of AIDS
According to the surveillance data from January 2004 to December 2016, the figure of monthly incidence rates showed a trend of sharp increase from 2010 to 2016 the peak incidence existed in 2012 (Fig. 2). Table 2 showed the average of monthly morbidity of AIDS at the period between 2004 and 2016. The annual incidence rate was between 0.2648 and 4.0211 per 100,000 people from 2004 to 2016. Figure 3 shown that the monthly incidence of AIDS in China was cyclical. The lowest point was generally between January and February of each year, and the highest point was generally from July to December of each year. In summary, the monthly incidence of AIDS in China during the 13-year period from 2004 to 2016 had been cyclical and increasing year by year.
ARIMA model
Model identification
The time series from January 2004 to December 2016 were used to establish the model for the morbidity of AIDS, which were not stationary owing to seasonality. After the natural logarithmic transformation was performed, one general difference, one seasonal difference, time plots after transformation are shown in Fig. 4. Transformed time series appeared to be quite stationary.
ACF and PACF were used to describe the characteristics of series, select models and determine the order of key points. ACF was utilized to explain the correlation of several adjacent data as the coefficient of the relationship between series and their own historical or stagnant series. When the lag = 1, it is the first-order autocorrelation coefficient (p = 1), which indicates that there is a correlation between adjoining points; lag = 2 means the second-order autocorrelation coefficient (p = 2), which indicates that two adjoining points are also closely related, but generally the autocorrelation coefficient in ACF does not exceed 2. The ACF in Fig. 5-a shows that the autoregressive value broke through the wireframe of confidence interval only when lag = 1, indicating that the series had a high correlation within the first order. PACF was to test whether the partial correlation coefficient of each order was statistically significant one by one from higher to lower order until the first one was significant. The order of coefficients of PACF determines the highest order in the model. As shown in the PACF diagram (Fig. 5-b), the partial regression coefficient exceeded the confidence interval when lag = 1 and 2, indicating the feasibility of modeling within two orders. Therefore, this study considered that the partial regression coefficient decrease sharply after lag = 1, so neglected lag = 2.
As displayed from Fig. 5a and b, the model was initially determined as ARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q) s (General Multiplicative Seasonal Model). Since one general difference (d = 1) and one seasonal difference (D = 1) were performed in data pre-processing, ARIMA(p,1,q) × (p,1,q) 12 models with all order combinations for all autocorrelation delay coefficients p ≤ 1(P ≤ 1) and moving average delay coefficients q ≤ 1(Q ≤ 1) were selected as primary models.
All primary models were used to simulate and model the monthly incidence of AIDS. The statistics, BIC and parameter estimates of the models obtained are shown in Table 3. The table selected stationary R-squared and BIC with the relatively smallest value, and the model whose residual was white noise was the optimal one. According to the minimum BIC = -6.091 and white noise test for residual errors, Ljung-Box Q [18] =13.909, P > 0.05, which indicated that goodness-of-fit considered ARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1)12 as the most suitable model.
Forecast analysis with ARIMA
ARIMA(0,1,1) × (0,1,1)12 was used to predict the monthly incidence of ADIS from January to December 2017. The results are shown in Table 4. It can be seen from Fig. 6 that the change trend of monthly incidence fitted by this model was basically consistent with original data, and the fitting effect was satisfactory. With the extension of prediction time, 95% confidence interval of predicted value would widen and the accuracy of predictions saw a gradual decline, which was consistent with the conclusion of Xiao-Mei M [25] and Li-Ping R [26].
BP-ANN model
The set of information was divided into training, test and validation data sets in the ARIMA model. The BP-ANN model was established by Matlab 2019 to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS in China in 2017.
Network architecture
The BP-ANN modeling process has the following three steps:
1) original data was divided into three data sets, namely training, validation and test sets. The training set was used to train models and select the optimal network; the verification set was utilized to monitor the entire network training process; the test set was applied to verify the performance of the selected optimal network model. In network training, training and validation sets are usually selected to enter the network alternately in order to avoid overfitting, which means that established network models explain not only the variation of the observed population but also the fluctuations and errors of individual samples in the population [24].
2) After centralized training, repeated learning, forward and backward propagation of information, and continuous adjustment of network weights, the mean square error (MSE) of validation set would be minimized or reach a predetermined number of iterations [27, 28].
3) As a set of data coming from the same whole with training and verification sets and failing to enter network training, the test set can be used to evaluate established network models to obtain objective and extrapolative effective results.
In the training set of this model, the incidence data of the past three years was used to learn the incidence of the fourth year, such as the incidence rate in January of t1-t3 years was used to estimate that in January of the t4 year, then the incidence rate in the same month of t2-t4 years was used to predict that in the same month of the t5 year, in turn. With such data diversity method could be adopted to better learn and train network models, and avoid overlearning and overfitting.
After dividing data into three sets, network parameters are set up, such as number of network layers, nodes and iterations, the allowable error, and the learning algorithm used.
After the data set has been partitioned, the number of network layers, number of neural nodes, number of iterations, allowable error, learning algorithms and other network parameters of the model should be set before starting training.
To determine the number of network layers. A study by Robert Hecht-Nielsen in 1989 has shown that the feedforward network of a hidden layer can map continuous functions within all closed intervals [29]. A three-layer BP network model can complete any mapping from n to m dimensions. More than two hidden layers should only be considered when learning discontinuous functions. As long as the number of nodes in the hidden layer can be reasonably selected, the BP network model of a hidden layer has also strong nonlinear mapping capability, fast training speed, and good convergence ability. Hence, a three-layer BP network model was selected and a hidden layer was adopted in this study.
To determine the number of neurons (also called nodes) in each layer. The number of nodes in the input layer and the output layer is generally determined according to the data characteristics of the study. In this study, according to the data diversity and the predicted monthly incidence rate, the number of nodes in the input layer is 3, and the number of nodes in the output layer is 1. The number of nodes in the hidden layer has a certain influence on the performance of the neural network model. Too few neural nodes will cause small learning capacity, and failure to completely learn samples and laws of sample storage; Too many neural nodes will cause the network to be bloated, so that the learning speed may slow down and the irregular parts (such as white noise) of sample data may be stored into the network, resulting in poor network performance and generalization ability. At present, the number of nodes in the BP-ANN hidden layer is almost calculated and estimated by the empirical formula. Based on the literature review, this study uses four formulas and two empirical formulas that are the most commonly used to infer the approximate number of neural nodes in the hidden layer, and the formulas are as follows:
where M represents the number of input layer nodes; N represents the number of output layer nodes; "m" represents the number of hidden layer nodes; "a" is the regulation constant with values between 1 and 10. In this study, the number of nodes in hidden layer ranges from 3 to 12.
Select the learning algorithms and structures, initialize the model. Matlab provides 10 (a total of 11) BP neural network model learning algorithms, including Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (Train-lm), One Step Secant (OSS) algorithm (Trainoss), conjugate direction algorithm (T-trainscg), Polak-Ribiere algorithm (Traincgp), Fletcher-Reeves algorithm (Traincgf), resilient BP algorithm (Trainrp), self-adaptive learning rate algorithm (Traingda and Traingdx), gradient descent with momentum (Traingdm) and batch gradient descent training function (Traingd). Among them, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, the L-M algorithm for short, is the most widely used nonlinear least square algorithm at present because of its fast convergence speed.
In this study, three years of data were randomly selected from the data set of the monthly incidence of AIDS. After the normalization of data by the PRESTD function, estimated from 3 to 12 nodes in the hidden layer and above 11 algorithms were used to combine into the neural network models of 110 structures. Small sample data was input, and each structure was iterated 20 times to calculate their MSEs respectively. The smaller MSE was, the better the fitting effect of the network model would be and the closer the neural network prediction would be to the real value. The combination of the structure and algorithm of the minimum MSE was shown in Table 5. The combined BP neural network model with the minimum MSE = 0.001863 was the optimal model, and the optimal learning algorithm was the L-M algorithm.
Forecast analysis with BP-ANN
The BP neural network fitting curve for the incidence of HIV/AIDS in 2017 was obtained by inputting the test set into the trained BP-ANN and using the stored black box to operate network models (Fig. 7 and Table 6 of fitted value). By comparing the predicted value with the actual incidence, the fitted value of the BP-ANN model was very close to the actual monthly incidence of AIDS.
Comparative analysis
This study mainly compared and evaluated the prediction effects of the ARIMA time series model and BP-ANN model of the following three error evaluation indicators. In Table 7, the observed values were compared with the predicted ones in a point-to-point manner. The modeled MSE, MAE and MAPE in the ARIMA model were 0.0020, 0.0301 and 22.4638 respectively. However, three residuals in the BP-ANN model were 0.0019, 0.0129 and 1.2139 respectively.
When the morbidity of HIV/AIDS from 2004 to 2016 was set as the original data, models were established to forecast the morbidity of AIDS in 2017. The predicted incidence of AIDS was compared with the actual incidence of AIDS in 2017 so as to verify the fitting effects of models. Ultimately, the ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 structure was considered to be the most suitable time series model with white noise testing LB [18] = 13.909, P > 0.05, which meant that the model was effective. In the model, error parameters were MSE = 0.0020, MAE = 0.0301 and MAPE = 22.4638. The selected BP neural network model was seen as the optimal one with the L-M algorithm. In the model, MSE iterated 16 times was 0.0019, MAE was 0.0129 and MAPE was 1.2139. The fitting error of the BP-ANN model was significantly smaller than that of the ARIMA model while its forecasting accuracy was higher than that of the ARIMA model [30,31,32]. It was seen that the BP-ANN model was more effective in predicting the morbidity of AIDS in China.
In Fig. 8, the BP-ANN model had a fit value closer to the true value compared with the ARIMA model. Both prediction methods could be adopted to predict the incidence of AIDS in China. In terms of prediction accuracy, the BP-ANN model would be more suitable. The BP-ANNmodel could better improve forecasting duration than the ARIMA model. In this study, both methods just took into account the temporal variations of time series. However, the BP-ANN model was a nonlinear model, whose prediction accuracy could be enhanced by adjusting more dimensional inputs and development space was larger than that of the ARIMA model.
Monitoring the prevalence of infectious illnesses is of great importance for conventional health education. The prediction of anticipated AIDS cases will not only detect outburst conditions or report the possibility of outburst cases, but also help decision-makers to know about possible future change trends and past and present data [33].
Both ARIMA and BP-ANN models were based on the time series data prediction method with which the time series was extrapolated to the future through special development principles. In the model, morbidity could be predicted as special risk factors were not involved. Without complex transformations or additional alternative variables, auto-correlation, seasonal variations and secular change trends in the ARIMA model could be simply managed through seasonal functions, moving average, auto-regression and difference. As long as the suitable model was established, it would be possible to predict anticipated cases at a given time interval in the future [34].
Both models were capable of predicting the expected cases of AIDS. It was seen that both ARIMA and BP-ANN models could be used to predict the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS, but the fitting and forecasting effects of the nonlinear BP-ANN model were superior to those of the traditional linear ARIMA model. First, the modeling method of the BP-ANNmodel was simpler than that of the ARIMA model, while it was unnecessary to set up a complicated mathematical model or understand its mathematical structure and the correlation between variables. Second, the ANN was able to compute and deal with data spontaneously through a number of simple units. It was much better to fulfill the works that were involved with pattern recognition. The professional idea was compared with traditional statistics to significantly improve the precision accuracy in neural networks. The ARIMA model might be more suitable for making short-term forecast analysis because of a gradual decline in its long-term prediction effect. As a whole, the nonlinear BP-ANN model forecasting the morbidity of AIDS in China was the most appropriate way for complicated dynamic and nonlinear systems [35]. Therefore, multi-dimensional inputs in the BP neural network would be gradually improved to find out the best model and accurately make predictions. It will be very promising in future [36].
In summary, an agreement was further reached that the BP-ANN model was a suitable way to monitor and predict the change trend and morbidity of AIDS in China. According to the prediction results, more health investments would be made during outburst periods while fewer investments would be made during low-risk periods, which thus improved intervention effect and source scheduling.
Several limitations still exist in this study. First of all, time series analysis was carried out without considering the factors affecting the incidence of AIDS, such as production methods, social environment, epidemic variations and humanities.
Secondly, the research objects were required to remain relatively constant in prediction models during the whole process. Meanwhile, diversified infection channels and disease prevalence would be generated for a variety of people under distinct living conditions. In local places, it was necessary to re-learn and train prediction according to local conditions.
Thirdly, the BP-ANN model under black-box testing would affect the possibility of extrapolation beyond its training information and the fulfillment of subjective initiatives by operators during the process of BP-ANN analysis.
Availability of data and materials
The data that support the findings of this study are available from China's Statutory Infectious Disease Report of National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available.
Human Immunodeficiency Virus
Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
Estimation and Projection Package
Asian Epidemic Model
Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average
Artificial Neural Network
Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network
Auto-Correlation Function
Partial Auto-Correlation Function
Bayesian Information Criterions
Artificial Intelligence
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Mean Absolute Error
Mean Square Error
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Li, Z., Li, Y. A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 20, 143 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-020-01157-3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-020-01157-3
- Prediction
- BP artificial neural network model
- ARIMA model


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OFDM Multiple Antennas Cognitive Radio Relay CDMA Synchronization Channel Estimation Spectrum Sharing Interference Cancellation Full duplex Spectrum Sensing Resource Allocation Neural Networks Stochastic Geometry Equalizer Bi-Directional Feedback Femtocell Energy Harvesting Heterogeneous Networks Device-to-Device (D2D) Cross-link interference Cell Search Idle cells NOMA HetNet Ultra-dense small cell networks Spectral efficiency FBMC SINR mismatch problem Dynamic TDD interference management Sub-band filtering Mobility eigen decomposition outage probability Railway selection diversity Handoff Asynchronous Transmission flexible duplex 5G achievable sum rate interference mitigation Preamble Deep learning Grant-free Transmission MLP in-band full-duplex system sensing duration Correlated MIMO Simultaneous Sensing and Transmission transmission capacity (TC) Two-way communications Filtered OFDM automatic repeat request (ARQ) UWB full-duplex cellular OQAM bursty traffic model mode selection Bi-directional full-duplex Heterogeneous channel estimation capability Cognitive relay networks Channel estimation error multi-spectral pilot signal resource size control interference to noise ratio link reliability Coexistence scenarios mixed numerology Cooperative systems Resource management LTE-based V2V Vehicle-to-vehicle communication CP-OFDM massive connectivity tabu-search full-spreading NOMA Singular Vale Decomposition prototype filter Vehicle-to-Vehicle Reliability C-V2V Intentional frequency offset (IFO) Degree of freedom (DoF) B5G Asynchronism Asynchronous non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) TDD configuration Computation offloading Multiple access 6G non-orthogonal multiple access Complexity Full-duplex Edge computing Cell-free Coexisting network HST
|Status :
|Date :
|Title :
|Adaptive Modulation and Coding of MIMO in Next Generation Mobile Systems
|Authors :
|Sangmin Ro, Intae Hwang, Daesik Hong, Changeon Kang and Mingoo Kang
|Journal :
|Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2003
|Abstract :
|In this paper, we combine adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) with multiple input multiple output (MIMO) VBLAST multiplexing to improve the throughput performance of AMC in next generation mobile communication systems. In addition, we propose a system that adopts selection transmit diversity (STD) in the combined AMC-MIMO VBLAST system. The received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is improved by adopting STD techniques and an improved SNR increases a probability of selecting modulation and coding scheme (MCS) level that supports higher data rate. From the simulation results, the investigated MIMO-STD VBLAST system provides a throughput gain of 1Mbps compared with simply combined AMC-MIMO VBLAST system when the required SNR is 15dB. Also, the higher throughput is achieved by AMC-TD schemes and AMC-STTD scheme provides about 250kbps increase in throughput. And AMC-STD with 2 transmit antennas achieves about 420 kbps throughput improvement over the conventional AMC at 9dB SNR.
Reference Type: Book Chapter
Author: Ro, Sangmin
Author: Hwang, Intae
Author: Hong, Daesik
Author: Kang, Changeon
Author: Kang, Mingoo
Editor: Kumar, Vipin
Editor: Gavrilova, Marina
Editor: Tan, Chih
Editor: L'Ecuyer, Pierre
Primary Title: Adaptive Modulation and Coding of MIMO in Next Generation Mobile Systems
Book Title: Computational Science and Its Applications — ICCSA 2003
Book Series Title: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Copyright: 2003
Publisher: Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
Isbn: 978-3-540-40161-2
Subject: Computer Science
Start Page: 982
End Page: 982
Volume: 2668
Url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-540-44843-8_48
Doi: 10.1007/3-540-44843-8_48


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Today's Advisory Council is made up of more than 50 members from throughout New York City as well as 15 states and two countries with a shared passion for dance.
Members meet twice annually to ensure and help continue the growth and purpose of SAB while enjoying social and educational activities. In addition to the lifelong friendships formed in the group, members also benefit from an array of behind-the-scenes experiences to engage more deeply in New York City's rich cultural opportunities.
The commitment of the Council's members provides needed scholarship support for talented young dancers through the Advisory Council Scholarship Fund. Advisory Council scholarship recipients have come from 7 countries and 25 states, and have gone on to perform at prestigious ballet companies around the world including American Ballet Theatre, Birmingham Royal Ballet, Miami City Ballet, New York City Ballet, Pacific Northwest Ballet, and many more.
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In Remembrance: Nancy N. Lassalle
The School of American Ballet pays tribute to founding Advisory Council member, Nancy N. Lassalle. Nancy discovered her lifelong home at age 14 when she enrolled in Lincoln Kirstein and George Balanchine's fledgling school in 1941 and never left. Instantly impassioned and inspired by Kirstein's brilliance and Balanchine's artistic genius, Nancy found her life's purpose in championing and advancing their dreams for the remainder of her long life; taking on many mantles–author, editor, educator, photographer, curator, fundraiser, philanthropist—in service to their vision for the School and Company.
A founding member of both SAB and New York City Ballet's boards upon their inceptions in the 1970s, Nancy's perennial generosity was superseded by her daily engagement with and promotion of our missions. During her longstanding tenure as a board member, Nancy founded the SAB Advisory Council in 1975 to promote national and international awareness of SAB's achievements and support scholarships for talented students worldwide, continuing as an active member throughout her life.
As a witness to ballet history in the making, Nancy was a champion for dance scholarship–documenting, recording, and preserving NYCB and SAB's history through work with Dance Index, Ballet Society, Eakins Press, the New York Public Library for the Performing Arts, and in numerous exhibits and publications documenting SAB and NYCB history. In the decades following the passings of Balanchine and Kirstein, Nancy served as a guardian of their legacy and ideals, ensuring that those carrying on in their wake would never lose sight of their original vision, and serving as a vital link between past and present. One of Nancy's many resounding impacts on SAB was as the driving factor in launching the Cultural Program that has enriched the lives of hundreds of students by providing them with a holistic exposure to the cultural landscape of the arts. To honor her many years of dedication to the School, the Board of Directors unanimously voted in October 2020 to rename the program as the Lassalle Cultural Program.
All of us at SAB are grateful for Nancy's leadership, generosity, and friendship throughout the years and know that her legacy continues through the lives of our students.
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Low Turnover at our Centres is due to many factors including an attractive compensation and benefits package. We also nurture a positive work culture. As a result, we have a stable, and harmonious environment where your child can thrive.
Strong teamwork in every room: We work in teams of two or three in each room. This provides accountability for Educators. It also provides the Educators with the inspiration and support needed to keep your child safe, engaged and thriving.
Nurturing, Language-Rich environment: Global Aware Care Educators express warmth and love for each child at our Centre. This includes affirming, respectful communication and positive guidance. For example, our language-rich environment includes "serve-receive" communication that is so important for healthy brain development.
Professional Development: We invest in our Educators and also support their professional development. For example, we have an annual PD Day. We also arrange other development opportunities throughout the year.
Interested to join us? If we are hiring, you can find our ads on Indeed


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Common steps and sub-activities
The term shaking is derived from the activities of the Shakers. Early Shaker worship services were unstructured, loud, chaotic and emotional. Many outsiders who witnessed early Shaker worship services considered them heretics and protested in front of their places of worship. One member was even arrested several times for disturbing the peace. Early Shakers experienced the energy and ecstasy of a full 'religious experience'.
The Shakers experienced a particularly intense period of spiritual manifestations which began in 1837 and lasted through to 1847. Children told of visits to cities in the spirit realm and brought messages to the community which they received from 'Mother Ann'. In 1838 the gift of tongues was manifested and sacred places were set aside in each community, with names like Holy Mount; but in 1847 the 'spirits left the Believers'. This appears to coincide with the moment when the shaking and extreme physical practises were abandonned.
What is the difference between quaking and shaking? Nothing as far as I could see, just a different name for the same thing.
For iPad/iPhone users: tap letter twice to get list of items.


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The Switch
Women's Conference: Ignite the fire within you!
WCEM Ignite 2019 is a 4-day conference celebrating women and their evolution of change as they continue to grow and mature in their faith and lives. This experienced-packed event features daily international speakers, live music and performances, and interpersonal engagements. The approach needed to be concise, engaging, and captivate the audience, communicating a message of change and shifting of mindset. This would not be the 'normal' conference experience of years prior.
The Objective
Create a compelling conference brand-identity with associated collateral to clearly communicate the 'feel' and intent of the annual conference theme.
I was successful in helping WCEM focus their brand and marketing strategy for the conference and engagement with their audience. Together, we were able to position the conference with seamless touch-points and collateral, and usher in an alternative experience.
Creative Direction
Brand Strategy
Identity Design
Digital Design
Web Design
UX/UI Design
Merchandise Design
Collateral Design
Ready to Chat?
Let's Work Together.
Let's Work Together.


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PRESS RELEASE On August 22, 2007, Radio Free Asia (RFA) broadcasted in Khmer that the Vietnamese authority summoned a Khmer Krom man, Mr. Chau In, living at Sake Deouch commune, An Cu village, Tinh Bien district, An Giang province, to meet the police authorities of Tinh Bien district, An Giang province. Mrs. Kim Pouv Saton, RFA reporter, interviewed Mr. Chau In while he was on his way to meet the police authority. Mr. Chau In told her that the Vietnam authority is trying to accuse him for receiving money from Venerable Tim Sakhorn who is a Cambodian Buddhist monk that was defrocked by Cambodian authority and deported to Vietnam on June 30, 2007. On August 23, 2007, RFA (Mrs. Kim Pouvsaton) interviewed two Khmer Krom women who were imprisoned and threatened to admit an injustice crime for receiving money from Venerable Tim Sakhorn. The first woman is Mrs. Neang Phe, 69 years old, who is living in the same village with Mr. Chau In. She told RFA that she was imprisoned 3 days by the Vietnam authority […]. She said that she is old and she could not remember what they were trying to accuse her. She was so exhausted, so she just shook her head to admit whatever the Vietnam authority accused her so she could go home. The second woman is Mrs. Neang Ve, 50 years old, who is also living in the same village with Mr. Chau In. She was imprisoned for 1 day. The Vietnam authority accused her for receiving money from Ven. Tim Sakhorn. She said that, at this time, Mr. Chau In, Neang Phe, herself, and Chau Son cannot go to work anywhere. They are so afraid and just stay at home. She told RFA to appeal the Human Rights organizations to ask Vietnam to return Ven. Tim Sakhorn back to Cambodia because the Vietnam authority keeps accusing the innocent Khmer Krom for having contact with Ven. Tim Sakhorn. Mr. Chau In, Neang Phe, Chau Son, and Neang Ve are amongst hundreds of farmers from the area known to file numerous complaints to the Vietnam authority demanding for the return of their farmlands since last year. To this date, The Vietnam authority does not resolve the land issues for the poor Khmer Krom farmlands. Based on the interviews that were conducted by Mrs. Kim Pouvsaton with the […] Khmer Krom farmers in Kampuchea Krom, I can see that the Vietnamese authority is trying to find falsity evidence so they could accuse Ven. Tim Sakhorn to be guilty. Vietnam has imprisoned Ven. Tim Sakhorn who is a Cambodian citizen since June 30, 2007. Vietnam has no evident to prove that Ven. Tim Sakhorn is guilty. Thus, Vietnam has to use […] tricks to […] imprison the Khmer Krom farmers, especially an old woman like Mrs. Neang Phe; by accusing them receiving money from Ven. Tim Sakhorn so they can go to the big cities (Can Tho city and Saigon city) to protest to demand returning their farmlands. Fortunately, those Khmer Krom farmers are bravely to speak up with the RFA reporter. In this regards, I would like to urgently appeal for your assistance to:
- Urge Vietnam to return Venerable Tim Sakhorn back to Cambodia unconditionally.
- Urge Vietnam to stop threatening, torturing, and imprisoning the innocent Khmer Krom farmers.
- Urge Vietnam to stop confiscating Khmer Krom's farmlands and resolve their farmland issues.
- Urge the foreign Embassies in Vietnam to monitor the Khmer Krom Human Rights violations and provide assistant to save the Khmer Krom victims if their life are in danger, such as the case of the people who are mentioned above.
Thanks for your help in advance and I am looking forward to hear from you. Respectfully Yours, Thach Ngoc Thach President of Khmers Kampuchea-Krom Federation


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Featured stories
TNIAAM Productions presents: Operation Charlotte: Chapter 1
What happens when mascots are in charge of logistics?
The Octonion: Salvation
It's 2044, and the world has changed. Only 3 cozy mascots can save us from ourselves...
The Quindenion
A secret society of the eight wealthiest mascots in the Northeast convenes at an estate in Providence, RI, otherwise known as Mike Tranghese's basement (at least for the next couple months). Chips and mango-peach salsa are served. They control the Northeastern bank money supplies, Fort Dix, ESPN and the Weslyan College student newspaper. They are known as The Quindenion.
War Otto, Vol. 1: Warzones
Exhibit A of why we shouldn't let Andy near Otto themed comic book mashups.
The Quindenion in 'Game of Zones: Winter is Here'
Otto and his mascot friends are back!
THE QUINDENION in: The Wizard of Odd
Jim Boeheim and Otto find themselves in the NCAA's mysterious "Land of Odd". Can they escape the clutches of The Evil Witch of The West Virginia and find their way back to The Dome, or will their exile from Syracuse be for ever?!?
The Quindenion in Game of Zones: Episode 2
The ACC Mascots are back for more adventure in this Game of Thrones parody! Episode 2: The Fall of Castle Orange
The Quindenion: Game of Zones
Who said Syracuse can't play for a crown? The battle is on for the throne of the Fifteen Kingdoms. In a game of will, deception, and utter incompetence, which mascot will reign supreme?
The Quindenion return in... Brave-Foot
Can one brave punter and fifteen mascots stand in defiance of tyranny and help Florida State keep its football playoff spot from the ruthless SEC???
The Quindenion: Hardwood Games Mockingjaybilas
Otto and his mascot friends have escaped New York with the mystical scroll that holds the secret to taking down ESPN. Can they succeed against all odds or will the worldwide leader have the last maniacal laugh?
The Quindenion, The Hardwood Games: Dribbling Fire
Otto and his mascot friends are back! ESPN has ruthlessly punished the ACC for Otto and Eight Ball's victory in the inaugural Hardwood Games. Forced to fight back, can the mascots bungle their way to victory over the evil "Capitol"???
The Quindenion: 'The Hardwood Games'
Otto and his mascot friends are back, but find themselves in a fight to the death at the hands of ESPN (a.k.a. The Capitol). Alliances are formed & new heroes emerge. Will our favorite "tribute", Otto The Orange, survive or be just another victim?
The Octonion And The Deathly Hallows
The Octonion gathers for what might be the last time...
The Octonion In...MasterConference
A secret society of the eight wealthiest mascots in the Northeast convenes at an estate in Providence, RI, otherwise known as John Marinatto's basement. Chips and mango-peach salsa are served. They control the Northeastern bank money supplies, Fort Dix, ESPN and the Wesleyan College student newspaper. They are known as The Octonion.
The Octonion convenes to vote on Villanova's entry
The Octonion meet in order to decide if Villanova will join the conference.
Octonion: The Rise Of Cobra
The Octonion reconvenes for the start of the 2009 Big East football season.
Octonion: Revenge Of The Fallen
The Octonion returns to deal with Otto's recent penchant for stealing recruits from other Big East teams.
Most Recent
""We've had some guys like Vanilla Ice on our team. You know, a one-hit wonder. We want you to be like the Commodores. The Beatles. Queen." -Dino BabersCollege Football Computer Picks
Babers on Ice Cream


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Crude Oil for 1/29/20
The decent trade below $58.03 (+.4 of a tic per/hour) warned of continued pressure for $1.35 minimum, $8.20 (+) maximum. We have attained $5.90 of this. NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I make across the energy spectrum to my clients twice daily. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.


text: Finally, finally.... I can show you what I was working on for so long. Remember that I kept something hidden on my desk in the past months, telling you it was a commission-project? I am allowed to reveal it now, and I will tell you all about it later in this post. First, let's have a look what is on … [Read more...]


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Click on any of the term papers to read a brief synopsis of the research paper. The essay synopsis includes the number of pages and sources cited in the paper.
This 10 page paper looks at web services technology and considers different aspects. The first part looks at Web Services-Interoperability (WS-I) Basic Profile, what it is and its components and then considers how it may compete or compliment EDI. The second part of the paper looks at RCP v Document usage for messages and other technologies useful for business. The bibliography cites 7 sources.
A twelve page paper which looks at the importance of XML in the development of web services, and the impact which web services have had on international trade and e-commerce, especially with regard to increased globalisation by Australian corporations. Bibliography lists 18 sources.
This 14 page paper is written in three parts. Each part of the paper looks at a different type of technology, outlining the purpose and the motivation for it's' existence, how it functions, how it is used by organizations, the market and the way it may evolve in the future. The technologies discussed include information technology security, focusing on cryptography, web services and database management systems. The bibliography cites 15 sources.
This 4-page paper analyzes the current status of web-related services and Internet use in India and then determines if investment in this area would be high-risk Bibliography lists 2 sources.
This 10 page report discusses GTE, one of the world's largest telecommunications companies. In the United States, GTE provides local service in 28 states and wireless service in 17 states; nationwide long-distance and internetworking services ranging from dial-up Internet access for residential and small-business consumers to Web-based applications. Outside the United States, the company serves more than 7 million telecommunications customers. Current merger issues with Bell Atlantic are also discussed. Bibliography lists 10 sources.
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Our North Hollywood business lawyers, estate planning attorneys, and real estate lawyers have the experience and skill required to successfully handle legal matters in the following practice areas.
Our North Hollywood business formation lawyers assist clients in making informed, sensible choices regarding which business model is best suited for a specific situation. As knowledgeable business formation lawyers and business transactions attorneys, we educate business owners on the benefits and liabilities of sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies, and incorporation.
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Legal Aid Ontario's Statement of Principles
LAO's services promote access to justice. We provide legal aid services to eligible individuals in Ontario. We are a vital part of a strong justice system.
We are committed to our clients, our work and our important role. We have a foundational framework of values and commitments that we have built over time and which we continue to strengthen. This framework informs our work on a daily basis, and we are proud of it.
We are presenting the framework in this statement of principles as LAO transitions from its founding statute, the Legal Aid Services Act, 1998, to updated legislation, the Legal Aid Services Act, 2020. Our principles and commitments are part of our strong tradition of service and they will continue to be foundational to our work under our new statute. This transition is an opportunity for us to reaffirm and to celebrate our principles.
Applying our principles
We put clients at the centre of all we do.
We deliver client-focused services in accordance with our mandate and the principles established in LASA 2020. We are accountable to the province of Ontario for ensuring value for money in the expenditure of public funds.
As set out in LASA 2020, LAO's mandate is to provide high quality legal aid services that consider the needs of clients and communities in Ontario, including Indigenous and Francophone individuals and communities. We must also be mindful of the cost of the services and our financial resources.
Our statutory principles are in s. 17(2) of LASA 2020, which says that LAO should make continual efforts to maintain and improve the effectiveness and quality of legal aid services while ensuring value for money and that legal aid services should:
- promote access to justice,
- be efficient, effective and high-quality,
- be provided in a client-focused, innovative, transparent and accountable manner,
- be responsive to the needs of low-income individuals and disadvantaged communities in Ontario,
- promote early resolution, where appropriate, and
- be co-ordinated with other aspects of the justice system and with community services.
Equity and human rights
LAO strives to uphold the values of equity, diversity, and inclusion within our organization and in our client services.
As a provider of services to low income Ontarians—many of whom are Indigenous, Black, racialized, and members of other equity-seeking communities—we recognize that our clients face barriers in accessing justice because of systemic racism and other forms of discrimination, such as those faced by people with disabilities and who are 2SLGBTQIA+.
LAO works to combat these impacts by:
- respecting and advancing the principles of equity and human rights
- following the letter and spirit of the Ontario Human Rights Code
- providing legal aid services through service providers who are respectful, recognize the dignity and worth of every client, and are free of bias, discrimination, harassment, and racism, including anti-Indigenous and anti-Black racism
- applying an equity analysis, including race equity, to our work
- strengthening our organizational capacity and client service by fostering an inclusive and diverse workplace that reflects the clients and communities we serve.
LAO actions these values in a variety of ways:
We have implemented a client-centred approach for reducing barriers and improving service quality for our core clients, including individuals and communities who are Indigenous, Black, or racialized, and people with disabilities.
We are committed to working with Indigenous communities and the provincial and federal governments to advance the goals of truth and reconciliation and to implement the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada's Calls to Action, particularly those addressed to the justice community.
LAO's rules and policies require service providers and staff to deliver services in a manner that is respectful, recognizes the dignity and worth of every client, and is free of bias, discrimination, harassment, and racism, including anti-Indigenous and anti-Black racism.
We have established an equity, diversity and inclusion committee. We value the broad range of diversity in our staff, service providers, stakeholders and clients across Ontario, and are committed to building inclusion and supporting equity and a sense of belonging. Through the committee, LAO has developed a multi-year strategic plan to address barriers and move LAO closer to its vision.
LAO's values and strategic goals
Our values are leadership, excellence, creative thinking, and respect. We lead by being a strong voice in representing our clients and promoting access to justice. We continuously work to improve what we do. We respect our clients, our service providers and all others with whom we interact.
Our strategic goals include:
- a client-centred focus
- value for money
- innovative services engaged staff, and
- effective collaboration.
We advance these goals by:
- focusing on client-centred service delivery
- supporting the community legal clinic system, Indigenous legal services organizations and student legal services organizations in serving legal aid clients and communities
- listening to our clients, service providers and staff
We are committed to a proactive approach to accessibility in communication and customer service by developing and implementing accessibility policies and procedures in accordance with the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act, 2005.
Our Accessibility Policy sets out LAO's policies and procedures to promote the core principles of dignity, independence, inclusion, integration, responsiveness and equality of opportunity for people with disabilities.
French Language Services
We are committed to meeting the needs of French-speaking clients and ensuring that legal aid services are readily available in French, in keeping with the principle of active offer and in accordance with Ontario's French Language Services Act (FLSA).
LAO's French Language Services (FLS) strategic plan, created as part of the overall FLS Strategic Plan for the Justice Sector in Ontario, sets out our ongoing commitments and priorities for FLS.
Service providers
LAO carries out its mandate with the dedication and commitment of its staff and its service providers, including roster lawyers who deliver legal aid services, community legal clinics, Indigenous legal services organizations, and student legal services organizations.
They share our commitment to serving low-income individuals and disadvantaged communities in Ontario. Each individual and organization plays an integral part in helping LAO to deliver on its mandate. We value their work, the important role they play, and the relationships we have with them.