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By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Testosterone Pit.
Auto sales in the US have been hopping for the last few years, and production has soared, and exuberance along with it, and there were even hopes that sales would soon be where they'd been before the crisis, before the bankruptcies, the plant closures, the job destruction, the bailouts. Through August, it looked like it could happen. August sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.09 million new vehicles (Motor Intelligence), which is close to where sales had been before the crisis.
The auto industry plays an outsized role in the US economy, in manufacturing, services, and retail (accounting for nearly 20% of total retail sales). Booming production and sales have been pushing economic growth when hardly anything else was.
Then came September and October and the government shutdown and the taper or whatever, and the SAAR dropped to just over 15 million vehicles in both months, and unsold inventories piled up. But it wasn't time to get nervous. It would be just a blip. Sure enough, in November, sales jumped to a rate of 16.4 million units, and everyone breathed a sigh of relief: there'd be no slowdown; the party would go on.
Then the December debacle happened. Inventories were already high when sales dropped to a SAAR of 15.4 million vehicles. It brought actual sales for the year down to 15.6 million units. This time they blamed the snowstorms and the polar vortex and whatever, and true, no one in his or her right mind goes out to buy a car during a snow storm, but snowstorms happen every winter, and the weather was beautiful in other parts of the country, including much of the West Coast.
But never mind. The Detroit Auto Show is happening, and exuberance is boiling over. GM promised to pay a dividend. Tesla goosed its stock price with another one of its announcements. Ford stirred up excitement with visions of an aluminum-framed F-150. And gleaming models were on display, and industry insiders were cranking out hype at 80 mph.
Then AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson poured cold water on it all. He should know. He runs the largest chain of dealerships in the country, an empire of 225 stores that sold 296,419 new retail units in 2013, about 2.24% of total US retail sales. He warned about the out-of-whack inventories.
Dealers were sitting on $100 billion in new vehicles – which automakers had already recognized as sales on their books. Channel stuffing. There were 3.45 million units waiting to be sold. While sixty days' supply would be "an accepted inventory figure," as he said, current levels are far above it. The figures were even worse with fleet sales taken out of the equation. He put his finger where it hurts, where it has always hurt.
Fleet sales can be a profit sinkhole. They're in the infamous category of "but we'll make it up with volume." Ford was Number One in that dubious category, with 707,000 fleet units, or 28% of its total sales. GM sold 653,100 fleet units, or 23% of its total sales. Chrysler 22%, Toyota 9%, Hyundai-Kia 15%, Nissan 14%, and Honda 2% – it only sold 30,400 fleet units. Combined, these top seven sold 2.35 million fleet units in 2013, or 15% of total sales.
With fleet sales, Ford made it to Number Two in the US. Based on retail sales only, Toyota was Number Two, beating Ford by 262,000 units! That's one of the reasons why Ford and GM and others are doing it: bragging rights.
Fleet units largely bypass dealer inventories. Once fleet sales are taken out of the equation so that only retail sales count, inventories suddenly look enormously bloated, with 90 to 120 days' supply, Jackson pointed out.
And now sales have started to slow down. The bane of the industry. In addition, January and February are usually the slowest months of the year, and they're starting out with bloated inventories. Unless a miracle happens, they'll end up with even more bloated inventories.
Automakers and dealers are already reacting, Jackson said. Discounts are rising, and automakers have started paying dealers for hitting monthly sales targets. But that won't be enough. Rebates and other incentives will be next. The chances of an all-out discount war, the kind that tore up automakers before the crisis, are fifty-fifty, he said.
"What I'm saying is you're on the edge of a slippery slope and even sliding down it a bit," he said. "It's a risk."
Unperturbed, automakers are producing cars like hotcakes. Exuberance leaves no room for a slowdown. And over the next few years, they're even boosting annual production capacity in North America by over one million vehicles!
GM, Ford, Toyota, and Honda are expanding existing plants in the US and Canada. Nissan just put a new plant on line in Mexico. Volkswagen, Honda, and Mazda are building new plants in Mexico. Volkswagen said that it would build another new plant in North America. And its plant in Tennessee is operating at half of its capacity. But who the heck is going to buy all these cars?
"The last thing we need is to get bricks-and-mortar capacity increased," warned Chrysler and Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne.
The devastating crisis in the industry was caused by years of overcapacity, overproduction, steep rebates, hollowed-out balance sheets, bloated inventories, and a host of other problems that suddenly came in contact with crashing sales. This experience taught the industry to not ever lose sight of that vaunted "discipline." The industry would never again be blinded by exuberance. But that lesson has already been forgotten.
Slowing sales and ballooning inventories are a toxic mix in the auto industry. With production and import schedules set way in advance, there is no way to suddenly turn off the spigot. Instead, automakers and dealers will have to figure out how to get rid of those vehicles piling up on their lots and coming down the pike. Large incentives would help, but they'd bleed profits from automakers – something they'd promised to not ever do again. And once the industry has become addicted to the incentives, it's nearly impossible, as the industry consistently re-found out, to stop them.
Given the size of the car business in the US economy, even a minor squiggle will be noticed. In the best-case scenario, sales would accelerate sharply without too much discounting, and it would eat up excess inventories. If that doesn't happen, there'd have to be big discounts and rebates and other incentives. They'd bleed the automakers, and eventually they'd have to cut production, and overtime would be eliminated and then entire shifts, and people would be furloughed, and so the industry that consistently outperformed over the last few years and pushed manufacturing and consumer spending forward and caused economic growth to tick up would suddenly be a big drag on the economy.
And that is not to mention the impact of cheap credit and total abandonment of any credit standards for car loans. Look at LTVs on new car loans, and the LTVs on used car loans are insane, and the length of the average car loan continues to stretch longer and longer – during which the borrower is almost always under water. Basically lenders are betting that people will not default on the car loan for the car they need to get to work … we will see.
Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg
Probably not for a while since many people are already living in them.
Sammy Maudlin
You're very correct in that automakers are making cars more "affordable" by lowering credit thresholds. It seems that GM in particular may have (not?) learned a thing or two from its days as a mosrtage originator:
One impact of these race to the bottom sales techniques that I haven't seen studied is: what is the collective effect on the credit rating of these customers? Of course, many of these people Are charged higher interest rates and tend to default more often.
Sooo, then their credit rating is worse now… and how can they no qualify for a loan to buy another car? In other words, where is the desire for the repeat customer? Sure, lenders and investors in the securitatization pools are generally more protected on the collateral side with subprime auto loans, because the collateral is easier to get back than a house and maintains its value better than a TV.
But more to your point and the point of this article, how are they going to sell all those cars if they keep defaulting people out of the market? Keep lowering the LTV ratios? Is that sustainable?
Hey I've got some great ideas for boosting car sales why not screw down wages and let volume manufacturing go to other countries that manipulate their currencies and/or taxes or don't have the same level of over-heads or demand as developed economies and finally let the Banksters plunge most people into ever increasing debt. All these ideas will surely bring down the price of cars to make them more affordable again. Won't they?
Dino Reno
Right now it's zero down, zero interest rates for 7 years, zero payments for six months and a wink-wink credit check. Trade in values are high book for any piece of garbage you can pull, push or drag. Walk on the lot of any dealership and they will literally hand you the keys and beg you to drive a new car away on any terms you deem appropriate for your circumstances. Junk car loans are being bundled and sold by the likes of Blackrock. Any of this sound familiar?
The only cash being exchanged at point of sale is for sales taxes. That's right, there goes the government again messing with a good thing.
Here in Canada, loans/leases used to be for 3-5 years, now it's 5-7.
Kick the can down the road, extend and pretend…
Sammy Maudlin
"Right now it's zero down, zero interest rates for 7 years, zero payments for six months and a wink-wink credit check."
Nailed it. I have some intimate knowledge of the workings of a Nissan dealer. I can tell you for certain that the true spread of FICO scores for its lease and loan customers looks nothing like the spread that Nissan USA is advertising to prospective securitization investors (see p. S-34)
Of course, that would only be true if they really bothered to check them.
I remember when we had a functioning regulatory and legal system in this country that made American capitalism the envy of the world. Financial fraud like you describe would be ferreted out and the perps would be prosecuted to the full extent of the laws on the books. How quaint now to think of those days and ponder just how very, very far we are from them today.
Embrace the Suck
In the US auto industry cycles are very robust and tend lead the rest of the economy by 2 to 2.5 years. In the case of the Great Recession, the auto industry's crash was exacerbated by the financial crisis, just as it was for everyone else. If the recession had stayed "normal" or "frictional", we would have seen auto recovery in late '08 or early '09.
Along with the production and sales cycles there is a discernible credit cycle. At the beginning of auto recoveries sales are driven by cash buyers and prime credit risks. Folks who survive the beginnings of a recession with good savings or good credit can get an amazing deal on a new car. As the recovery goes on more and more folks with money buy, trade-in, and trade-up. But demand for the relatively well-off group is not bottomless, and sales eventually plateau. We're seeing that now.
Here's the thing–in order for sales to stay at the elevated level, less prime, less wealthy prospects have to become paying customers. And that means sub-prime auto lending has to grow. I think this is a good thing on the whole. It allows a person with a job to improve his personal real capital position (provided s/he doesn't get stuck with a lemon), and improve his or her credit rating. it also keeps millions of people working.
In the wake of the Great Recession lots and lots of supply chains were wiped out. Many because the companies went out of business or funding dried up. Many more were wiped out in gratuitous quarterly profit taking. We saw the effects of busted supply chains in residential real estate through 2013. Sub-prime auto lending can be characterized as a still-broken industry. I'm certain that auto sales can remain strong because there's profit yet to be made by dealers, lenders, and investors. But since many firms went out of business and those remaining are still reluctant to hire and train, it will be at least 6 to 9 months before the credit pipeline gets to a position where it can meet immediate demand, let alone address the buildup. By that time loan investors will be hungry for the return.
Here are the takeaways if you agree with my perspective:
* Auto sales have plateaued but may temporarily drop by another 1.5 million annual units
* The sales slump won't go on for more than a year
* Subprime auto lenders with working pipelines will have an excellent profit opportunity
* It'll be at least a year before excess inventories are worked off
* New car buyers in 2014 will get a much better deal than those who follow in 2015
Just my opinion.
I think the total budget will be going down over time. So looking at the size of the fleet will not show the full story. The number of cars might hold up, but buyers will be forced to buy cheaper models. As the boomers retire, I expect the number of cars on the road to dwindle unless we start to see a wealth transfer from the old to the young.
Jim Haygood
'Ford stirred up excitement with visions of an aluminum-framed F-150.'
Yeah, I got pretty excited upon reading that aluminum components might cut the weight of Ford's best-selling pickup by 450 lbs. The thrill diminished upon confirming that most existing F150s tip the scales at over 5,000 lbs.
Even after going on an all-aluminum diet, these behemoths will still be the equivalent of a late-60s Chrysler or Buick land yacht, with its billowing yards of Detroit-iron sheet metal.
Those who want lightweight vehicles — the reigning obsession of Henry Ford during the Model T era — have to go back to the Nineties or earlier for vintage models. Thanks to fedgov safety standards, we don't do 'svelte' no more.
susan the other
…mmmm…. land yacht is not a bad idea
Not bad at all. I had an idea a few years ago — for people who can't afford boat cruises or who get bored looking out over the same old horizon each day: Go on a Land Cruise.
You could hitch a long trailer — like they carry horses in — up to a truck. Take out the stalls and put in a bar, a grill and music, with a few rooms for beds..
People pile in and party, cruising from town to town. Milwaukee to Indianapolis to St. Louis, up to Chicago and back to Milwaukee. All on the interstate or the backroads. That would be up to the tour director. One or two weeks.
You cruise by day, eating and drinking on the highway, listening to music. Then you park and visit the city,
Maybe $400 per person. You could see America in a way it's never been seen before!
There's no reason why the sea has to be special. The land can be cruised, and at a surprisingly affordable price.
Sammy Maudlin
Ahhh, Haygood. Thought you'd get everyone with the old "apples to oranges" comparison didya? Not so fast!
Obviously comparing a 2014 truck to a 60s land yacht is ridiculous. However, if you look at apples to apples, even in its most basic form, today's F-150 has twice the payload hauling capability and gets approximately twice as many miles out of a gallon of gas than a late-60s version.
Weight's just killed it, I know. You don't suppose that any of the new weight has gone to sound deadening and creature comforts, do ya? I mean those old ones were pretty luxurious.
Oh and how about those land yachts? Well, credit where it's due, Haygood (not alot, don't get your hopes up) A base 2014 Buick LaCrosse weighs in at 3757 pounds. A full 300 pounds more than a base 1992 ("vintage" in Haygood parlance) LeSabre.
However, the 0-60/mpg of the 2014 is 8.9 and 27/36. The 1992? 8.8 and 16/26.
You're right, I suppose. I do need that tenth of a second off the 0-60 time on my mid-size Buick for my street racing cred.
Damn gubmint!
j gibbs
I bought a one year old car in 1997, for $23k. It still runs just fine although the automatic door opener no longer functions. I now pay about $700 a year to keep it running, mostly for a mandatory emissions inspection.
Anyone have an idea what this is worth on a trade-in?
gibbs, It's value is in the avoided cost of replacement, not residual value. Maintain it like an airplane and it theoretically will last for ever if it was a decent car to start with.
This is the broken window fallacy essence of the cash for clunkers program. Perfectly functional cars were prematurely replaced with new.
Hard to empathize – bad news for the auto industry is great news for the planet. The auto industry owes a great deal of it`s success to the fact that, it has been, for three quarters of a century, the beneficiary of deliberate car-centric urban planning and transportation policy decisions that fed the industry by making most American`s car dependent.
Perhaps the tide has turned? It`s encouraging to see that many cities, it seems, in the interest of safety, sustainability and improved quality of life, are now actively discouraging personal car use with more protected bike lanes, pedestrian plazas, and lower speed limits. Hopefully, in the interest of sustainability and the environment, the trend continues and spreads – long term it should be good for the economy anyway (just in a very different way).
susan the other
I agree and I also think there is a consensus trending in this direction. Two years ago Wolf Richter pointed out what he saw as a real estate bubble in Germany, which I said No Way because in Germany there is no new place to build. But recently I read an article about the boom in commercial, government financed building in Germany. Maybe Wolf saw this coming. This might mean, as it did here, that there is nowhere else to turn to keep the economy afloat except construction… but it doesn't last. And even if Mercedes and VW have moved their factories to the US and Mexico, sales are hopeless in this saturated, jaded world. I certainly will not ever buy another car. And I expect the coming generations to demand decent public transportation – no more free rides for greedy corporations.
William Neil
New cars can be very nice: the smell, the drive, nothing too loose. Most of the time they do not breakdown, at least during the first 25,000 miles, and one doesn't have to live with one's heart on edge of facing major bills. I remember what that is like, my last new car being in the fall of 1999. So that last new car is now fourteen years old. I am so far removed from being able to afford a new car that I can just laugh at the absurdity of the notion.
If the nation would set the minimum wage at $15.00 per hour, I could stop worrying so much about it breaking down, but I still wouldn't be able to afford a new one, far from it, and, working in retail, my hours have just dramatically dropped from the Christmas season.
So I can read this like a child dreaming of what they are not going to get at Christmas. And the notion, so popular on the Right, and by today's Krugman's column, among the deluded left-center, that supply will create its own demand, well, you know where you can file that notion.
In Europe, for the 'somewhat rich or middle upper to lower' young (to 35 without a family) who are urban dwellers, or semi or even peri-urban with public transport available, the cost or a car are astronomical and absolutely not worth it.
Buying / leasing, road tax, car-tax, and other variants of taxes, sky-high insurance, parking -which may even be impossible, putting paid to any dream of a small Fiat – you can't jack it up to your flat – repairs and maintenance, fines, cut desperately deep into any budget.
That is even before the costs of actually going anywhere in it are figured in – gas, oil, tires, parking, which may be extremely steep.
HIre cars, 'mobility cars' and 'share cars' are far cheaper for the few trips one might want to take. For this expenditure, the usually richer parents help their poorer children out, lending them cars for a trip or so, they can hardly refuse.
It is cheaper, in Switzerland, to fly to Madrid or Stockholm than to leave your car for 3 days in a parking spot…
The poorer young ppl can't afford a car at all so that is that.
Of course Europe is not the US, the infrastructure, necessary travel, and social mores are different.
Also, young people aren't buying cars. They don't really give a crap about car culture, and they're poor as hell, so not dealing with car expenses is a huge boon to their financial health.
Sorry, but even with zero down and zero interest, I still can't afford a new car. And isn't half the country now considered "poor" while the middle is getting poorer? Whenever the experts are surprised by slumping sales, I just laugh and wait for the bottom to fall out again.
Auto sales of 15.5 are booming. People got used to the Truck boom that the housing bubble caused. That isn't coming back. The economy grew to much between 2004-6 and that is another point people miss.
Another poor post on this site. What else is new.
Jeff N
I actually can't wait to buy a GMC Canyon/Chevy Colorado *diesel* compact pickup, coming out in late 2015. the fuel economy will be awesome! :)
George Phillies
New cars are good for something like fifteen years or a quarter of a million miles, more in areas were roads are not buried in salt for three months. There are about 240 million vehicles in the country. A simple process of long division says 16 million sales a year is about it, and some of those 16 million are imported. Now, if we had 1950s clangers that were barely good for 4 years or 50,000 miles, we would need to build 60 million vehicles a year, but we don't, so we won't.
Paul Tioxon
When my 10 year old Nissan cracked the engine block, I replaced it with a 12 year old Honda. It was a sweet deal. All white, power sun roof, low mileage, owned by a Main Line Auto repair shop mechanic. That's right my new car is 2 years older than my old car.
Interesting comments. My sympathies to those without wheels who need them, and quite understand that circumstance. Also being forced to have a car by a job can be brutal.
From an environmental perspective, the automobile is Waste personified. Why do we all have to have a car, if we could set it up so a fraction would do the job and everyone gets where they're headed safe, sound and in comfort?
I've seen reports of "channel stuffing" elsewhere off and on over time, so I'm not sure how new this is, or if there can be temporary factors that would make for the same result. It really has been a brutal winter, and other sales were also unimpressive. In any case, the process on its own would appear to have considerably more room if looked at from the "last time" perch. I wonder if that's the right perch, though, for the next crisis – I can't imagine Yellen is as tough on "taper" as she is on paper.
Just a question: is it certain companies building new facilities aren't also intending closing somewhere else? Jurisdictions are forking over piles of money and other "inducements" to land new plants or expansions.


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Sep 9, 2018
This is my second Whole Horse podcast with Josh Nichol of A Horseman's Pursuit, and I spent it on the edge of my seat, riveted. After seeing him in action during a clinic, I had a list of concepts to further clarify and we covered it all: the difference between pressure to yield rather than a subservient giving up, the idea of deep balance (without pulling on the head), the difference between softness and lightness, the idea of needs, and the basic needs being mind, space, and pressure, how we go about meeting those needs, the understanding of what it looks like to lose the soul of a horse through submission, and what the "turn loose point" is in horses and riders. We covered ground in this podcast, all while bringing it around full circle to how our own awareness and self-knowing as horse people is the key. My mind was blown in the best possible way. Enjoy!
In Josh's words: "I like to think of myself as a professional student of the horse; learning is what I do first and teaching is second. Mentoring people, building relationships and watching growth is truly my passion. I currently teach clinics throughout Canada in the summer and work out of our home ranch in the winter, helping people develop their relationships through horsemanship.
This style of horsemanship is very relational, it allows you to see yourself through your horse and continues as you advance through the process. Mastery in horsemanship begins with a commitment to bettering ourselves! This starts with taking ownership and responsibility for our part of the story, thus interpreting the horse's actions and performance differently. When we are aware of – and work on developing – our side of the relationship, we truly facilitate not only growth in our horses, but growth in ourselves. Good horsemanship challenges everything about our inner person. What an amazing gift: progressing in our horsemanship goes hand in hand with developing our best self!"
Learn more about Josh at https://www.joshnichol.com

subset: commoncrawl


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The Engage Academy is a year-long professional development programme for the public engagement sector, enabling people to embed high quality engagement into their institution. We asked some of the 2019/20 cohort what they valued most from the experience, this is what they said:
"One of the things that really appealed to me about the Engage Academy is the fact that it's a year-long process. I've been on lots of training courses and left with enthusiasm and ideas but many of these have never been implemented once emails and my to-do list has caught up with me. But the Academy seems different – the three face-to-face parts, and keeping in touch in between, has felt much more like a journey and chance to reflect, develop and improve than a one-off event." - Lisa Whittaker, Research Engagement Manager, Tenovus Cancer Care
"One thing I've realised is that I'm in the right job. There was a time when I doubted it, when it was at its most frustrating, and I wrongly interpreted that as meaning that I needed to find something else. I'm now learning to pro-actively play to my strengths, use my contacts, delineate as well as develop my remit, let go of other things, and make enjoying myself in my role one of my priorities.
I've realised how much fun there is to be had with PE, and have been so inspired by the many examples of outside-the-box ideas to get messages across and achieve engagement. So I try hard to sweat the small stuff less, and I'm no longer afraid to create headspace for myself, look up from the keyboard and think on a different level. These days my mind is constantly bubbling with ideas, some of which are already coming to fruition. I'm convinced the NCCPE has had a lot to do with those developments and I'm very grateful for that." – Myra Wilkinson, Research and Engagement Officer, University of Winchester
"I've also been inspired by something that I think has been an undercurrent in many of the words from our mentors and activities here in the academy – the idea that, rather than apologising for our ideas and work, we can truly represent ourselves as people who create value and opportunities for the institutions that employ us – and ask that the partners and researchers we work with also think of their engagement work as not something they do in addition to their job or daily life, but as an important and useful part of it.". – Helen Craig, Public Engagement Manager, UCL


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The chancellor was reported to have said that the electronic patient record system, part of the IT programme, was 'something we don't need to go ahead right now' as the government contemplates cuts to services.
Liberal Democrat shadow health secretary Norman Lamb said: 'The programme has been flawed from the start. It has held back the development of IT at a local level, cost billions and is years behind schedule.'
He called for the entire programme to be scrapped.
Shadow Conservative health secretary Andrew Lansley said: 'Labour has acknowledged what we've said for years, that the procurement for NHS IT was costing billions and not delivering.'
But Dr Grant Ingrams, GPC IT subcommittee chairman, said the system would save money: 'It's an essential tool for clinicians, for doctors and other staff to be able to treat patients. The NHS pays out a third of a billion pounds a year on mistakes; a lot of that could be put right if the IT was in place.'


text: Mami Itou brings the classic Street Fighter cast to life in this never-before-translated manga series! Street Fighter Gaiden features exciting short stories from across the Street Fighter universe. In this volume, Cammy butts heads with Vega, Ken takes on sumo wrestler E.Honda, plus appearances from Ryu, Fei Long, Chun-li and more of your favorite fighters!


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(Reuters) – The United States has concluded that Russia has committed "crimes against humanity" during its nearly year-long invasion of Ukraine, said Vice President Kamala Harris. Moscow responded that Washington was trying to foment crisis with the allegation.
* U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China's top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi at a Munich conference of consequences should China provide material support to Russia's invasion, while Harris said Chinese support would reward aggression.
* Wang said China has "neither stood by idly nor thrown fuel on the fire" regarding the crisis in Ukraine, and continues to call for peace and dialogue.
* France wants Russia defeated in Ukraine but does not want to "crush Russia" on its own soil, said President Emmanuel Macron.
* The European Union is urgently exploring ways for member countries to team up to buy munitions for Ukraine. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the EU "can move mountains" to supply more ammunition.
* Britain offered to help countries willing to send aircraft to Ukraine now, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, urging allies to maintain their support.
* Poland is ready to support Ukraine with MiG jets, but only if a U.S.-led coalition is formed, said Prime Minister Morawiecki.
* The Netherlands said it would close its consulate in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and limit the number of Russian diplomats allowed at their embassy in The Hague, over efforts "to secretly get intelligence agents into the Netherlands". Moscow said it would respond.
* The U.S. government has spoken with Elon Musk about the use of Starlink satellite internet in Ukraine, Blinken said after Musk's SpaceX said it had taken steps to prevent Ukraine's military from using the service for controlling drones.
* Most of Ukraine has power despite a series of major Russian attacks on the generating system, said President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
* Blasts wounded two civilians and shattered several hundred windows in the west Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi as Russia fired missiles from the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said. Ukraine's air force said Russia launched four Kalibr missiles, two of which were shot down by air defences.
* Russia's defence ministry said a push by its forces had captured of Hrianykivka, a village in Ukraine's Kharkiv region 180 km (110 miles) north of Bakhmut, the scene of recent fierce fighting.
* Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield reports.
(Compiled by Mark Heinrich and William Mallard)


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I was involved in a car accident about ten years ago and since that time, I have suffered with crippling back pain. I have been to countless physios and chiropractors over the years, none of which have been able to help me much.
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I first came across Donna at Healing Hands when I was six months pregnant, about three years ago. I was suffering with lower back pain and hoped that a relaxing massage may be able to help me. I asked around my friends and searched on the web and only one name kept coming up – Donna's.
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So in conclusion :(a) yes her treatments are amazing!! : )(b) please don't take my bookings : (
thankyou donna – janelle x
I've been having reflexology for about the last twenty years. I was on holiday in Ballycastle and it was a rainy day, on the off chance, I thought I would try and find someone for a treatment. Donna's was the first name that came up on Google.
She was really friendly and made me feel very welcome.
The treatment was amazing – the best I have ever had! – she picked up numerous ailments that I had been suffering from and by the end of it I felt totally refreshed and ready to enjoy the rest of my break.
I also managed to fit in another treatment before leaving – she really does have Healing Hands – highly recommended!!!
I suffer from severe back pain. My doctor actually recommended, I go to see Donna for a deep tissue back massage in Ballycastle.I spoke to her on the phone and to my amazement, she diagnosed that it was probably coming from my legs. I couldn't believe she could diagnose it, over the phone and booked up a deep tissue massage – as soon as possible!!
During the treatment, she worked a lot on my legs, which was quite painful. I was slightly skeptical, however after it ended and I stood up, I honestly couldn't believe the difference!
I had more freedom of movement, than I have had in years!
Donna, was lovely and gave me some light exercises to practice and a couple of other tips, to help maintain the suppleness in my back. Since then, I have been back a number of times and can't wait until the end of lockdown, so that I can start having my massages again.
Thanks again Donna!!
I have been going to Donna for treatment she is friendly and makes you feel relaxed and treatment is 100% I feel great after it.
I have been a convert of alternative therapies for over 30 years and Donna's treatments are the best I have ever had. I researched many therapistson the north coast when I moved here and Donna's name kept coming up as excellent. I can highly recommend her Reflexology treatment for the best night's sleep you will ever have!
Brilliant massage from the very professional Donna. Highly recommended
I had the reflexology treatment and it was wonderful. Donna is lovely and makes you feel very relaxed and at ease. Looking forward to my next appointment.. Thank you so much Donna…x
Donna is lovely person, really enjoy my sessions and always feel better when I've had a massage from her.
Excellence guaranteed every time!! Whatever treatment you choose you will be sure of complete satisfaction, every time, delivered in a professional, relaxing atmosphere. There are a variety of treatments to choose from – you will be spoiled for choice – I know I always am!!!
I suffered from a bad stroke it left me with a left side weakness, I have tried several types of treatments then I went to Donna a year or so ago and haven't looked back since.She recommended Reflexology so with her bubbley personality and good hands I found myself in a relaxing atmosphere as pain and weaknesses eased by the end of the session, her knowledge is without question is as good as it gets, as she let's you know which part of the foot is connected to which part of the body, and keeps you informed to anything new in treatments that could help in your situation. +++. . . . . . . THANKS DONNA
Donna certainly has 'Healing Hands'. Great for relieving sports stresses and strains with a deep tissue massage, or a light massage to just help you relax.
I had treatments with Donna in Coleraine few years ago. Excellent. Caring, holistic, and when she had to move her place of work I was sad but now I find she is in Ballycastle and I will return to her.
Great place to go when feeling stressed


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Commerce and Kinship
Pepper and Gambier
Agriculture, Labour, and Secret Societies
Agriculture was and still is a very labour intensive process. The secret societies identified themselves by regional and kinship affiliations, but in practice they were a form of organized labour, and whoever controlled them could end up very rich and powerful, like Tan Hiok Nee. Seah Eu Chin's role was as a merchant, connecting the producers with local and export markets, and as a financier, providing capital for starting or expanding farms. What kind of relationship would he have had with the secret societies, especially the Ngee Heng?
There have been a number of hypotheses about his position with respect to the Ngee Heng and secret societies: (i) that he was a member of the Ngee Heng, (ii) that he had come to an understanding or compromise with the Ngee Heng leaders for his business to flourish, 71 Carl A. Trocki, "Tan Seng Poh," in The Rise and Fall of Revenue Farming, ed. John Butcher and Howard Dick (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), 249. See also Trocki, Opium and Empire, chapter 4. Yen (Social History, 121) says he did not find that 'there [is] any evidence that the Singapore Teochews used secret societies to perpetuate their monopoly of the pepper and gambier trade.' But though absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, it really depends on what he means by 'perpetuate' because the Ngee Heng's members were the pepper and gambier planters. or (iii) that he founded the Ngee Ann Kongsi as a power base to compete against the Ngee Heng in the 1830s and 40s. 72 Trocki, "Ngee Heng Kongsi," 110-112. (By the time the Ngee Heng became a part of the economic establishment in Johore after the late 1840s, some of the following statements were no longer true, but this discussion refers to the earlier years when Eu Chin's business was still being built up.) The reality is probably more complex than this. Consider the following facts:
- The Ngee Ann was not a competitor with the Ngee Heng. The two organizations, although with similar names, played different roles and functions in the Chinese community. This is discussed later in Influence and Leadership.
- Eu Chin was among the financiers for pepper and gambier planting in Johore, during the period when the Ngee Heng Kongsi controlled the kangchu system, 73 Trocki, Prince of Pirates, 130, footnote 30. hence he and the Ngee Heng could not have excluded each other from their operations, as the competition hypothesis might suggest. Instead, as a financier he would be able to turn a profit no matter where the plantations were actually based—in Singapore, Riau, or Johore—since he controlled the lines of credit.
- The Ngee Heng's members were primarily labourers and menial workers, whereas its leadership were most likely to be tradesmen or shopkeepers, like in other secret societies. The labourers that worked on the plantations that Eu Chin owned must often have been members of the Ngee Heng. Indeed the countryside was probably in the hands of the various secret societies during the early part of his career, as they were able to hold initiation ceremonies in rural areas. 74 Munshi Abdullah bin Abdul Kadir, "The Hikayat Abdullah," trans. A.H. Hill, Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society 28, no. 2 (1955), 180.
- The Ngee Heng did not own land of its own in Singapore, and indeed left Singapore because the government intended to collect rents on land that had been squatted on. 75 Carl A. Trocki, "Kangchu System," 141. Eu Chin, however, was willing to pay for the ownership of plantations. 76 Trocki, "Ngee Heng Kongsi," 105, footnote 13, and references within. His plantations that he started up initially were independent of those smaller-scale plantations that were started by the Teochew planters from Riau who came to Singapore before him.
These points, and the general situation of the time, paint the following likely scenario: Eu Chin brought capital into the pepper and gambier plantation business from his previous commercial activities, and this was something that the preceding Ngee Heng-linked planters could not compete with. He had his own contacts and trading networks from his previous travel and business, and so could set up independent lines of supply and trade. By controlling the purchase and town trade of gambier, he could cause both traders and producers to be indebted to him, which gave him control over or at least independence from the Ngee Heng. More important still, he got into the trade just before the tariff on gambier imports into Britain was lifted, and since he had trading links with Europeans, he could become the channel for the much more lucrative trade to the European market, compared to the smaller and less profitable domestic and China trade that the Ngee Heng and the previous planters had participated in.
At some earlier point he probably had to collaborate with them because, although he had something (capital and trading networks) that the Ngee Heng did not have, the Ngee Heng had control over labour. But later, as his wealth and position grew, he could come to dominate the relationship. The Ngee Heng-linked gambier planters also had greater need of his connections when the British moved to survey the countryside in order to better control it. This was because his position allowed him to petition and negotiate with the government, as a representative of the gambier and pepper planters. 77 Petition from Gambier and Pepper Planters to the Governor, SSR W21 p.120, National Archives of Singapore. The time that the Ngee Heng moved to Johore coincided with their nadir here in Singapore. The Seah family's and Tan Seng Poh's (Eu Chin's brother-in-law) control of the opium revenue farm also helped undermine the Ngee Heng's power and authority. When the Ngee Heng moved its base to Johore, Eu Chin continued as a financier for some of the farms. Setting up and installing his son Liang Seah as head of the Kongkek (see Reaching the Top) cemented his dominance, because all trade had to be done through that guild, and they were the ones who set prices and did the purchasing. Hence the original key to his success was controlling capital and the link to the European markets.
This model of what might have been largely coincides with Trocki's reconstruction of Seah's role in the economy: he was "an investor, a capitalist" whose interests were aligned with the town merchants and Straits-born Chinese faction. 78 Trocki, Opium and Empire, 105-106. It was not simply that Eu Chin controlled capital and the Ngee Heng controlled labour and both sides cooperated harmoniously. In the 1840s especially, before Eu Chin had consolidated the pepper and gambier town merchants under the Kongkek, the Ngee Heng's control over the plantation labour force was an impediment to Eu Chin's ability to dominate the pepper and gambier economy. As Trocki says, "the weakness in Seah's position was his lack of 'military' support, the function of secret societies." 79 Trocki, Opium and Empire, 106. By this he means the control of the plantation coolies and the fighting men who enforced the Ngee Heng's interests. He even goes as far as to suggest that the Hokkien Quan Tek society was "the tool of Seah and a group of Hokkiens and Babas", because throughout the 1840s it was involved in a power struggle with the Ngee Heng that coincided (along with other factors) with the Ngee Heng's move to Johore. While this is certainly possible, it is also possible that he may have moved in to exploit the fallout from the conflict between the Quan Tek and the Ngee Heng, rather than being an active instigator. After all, Eu Chin was himself a Teochew. Which interpretation one favours ultimately rests on how far one accepts the historian Lee Poh Ping's contention that the conflict between the town traders (the "free trade society") and the agriculturalists of the interior (the "pepper and gambier society") over control of the gambier and pepper trade was fundamentally a class conflict that cut across dialect and regional affiliations. 80 Lee Poh Ping. Chinese Society in Nineteenth Century Singapore (Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1978). It was a struggle that the town traders (or "taukehs") won, because in more than one place they managed to out-maneuver the kongsis and be the ones who laid down the terms of the economic game. 81 Trocki, Opium and Empire, 45.
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Office of Equity and Inclusion
Meet Our Team
Dr. Ajani M. Byrd
Dean of Institutional Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion
Email: email@example.com
Dr. Byrd is an equity minded scholar-practitioner that specializes in the retention and persistence of students of color. He has over 15 years of experience in post-secondary education across student and instructional affairs divisions. Dr. Byrd has worked at mid-sized private institutions, large public universities, state-wide organizations and most recently within community colleges.
Prior to Foothill College, Dr. Byrd served in a variety of roles within the West Valley-Mission Community College District. Positions included Acting Dean of Student Equity and Success at West Valley College where he provided leadership and oversight over nine student success units and learning communities. During his time at WVC, Dr. Byrd was instrumental in furthering the college's goal of becoming an anti-racist campus that values inclusion and diversity by leading initiatives devoted to exploring the racial history of the college, identifying inequities in the student conduct process, and unearthing student engagement shortfalls through a disaggregated data analysis lens.
Dr. Byrd previously served as the Interim Dean of Language Arts and Director of Extended Opportunity Programs and Services at Mission College. While at Mission, Dr. Byrd worked with his colleagues to bring African American focused programming to campus, which included the Inaugural Black and Brown Summit and the African American High School Leadership Conference. Preceding his time on community college campuses, Dr. Byrd served as a Post-Doctorate Fellow at the California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office, a Research and Assessment Assistant at Loyola University Chicago, and Program Director at San Francisco State University.
Dr. Byrd has published multiple manuscripts and presented at numerous national conferences utilizing a critical lens towards equity and social justice. Dr. Byrd received his Doctorate of Philosophy in Higher Education from Loyola University Chicago, Master of Arts in Sports Management from the University of San Francisco, and Bachelor of Arts in Liberal Studies from San Francisco State University.
Dr. Carolyn Holcroft
Faculty Professional Development Coordinator, Equity
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Dr. Carolyn Holcroft came to Foothill as a biology instructor in 2002, after two years as an adjunct instructor at the University of Kansas and nine years as a registered nurse in the neonatal intensive care unit at Menorah Medical Center.
During her time at Foothill she has served in many different capacities, including stints on the student equity workgroup, on the professional development committee, as president of the Foothill academic senate, as college curriculum committee faculty co-chair, as campus student learning outcomes co-coordinator, and as our academic senate representative to the FHDA District Equity and Diversity Advisory Council. Carolyn is passionate about both equity and professional development, and has had the privilege of designing and facilitating training events for faculty, staff and administrators at both the local and statewide level.
Carolyn holds a Bachelor's of Science Degree in Nursing and a Doctorate in Molecular Genetics/Microbiology, both from the University of Kansas.
Erika Owens
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We're Here to Help!
Office of Equity and Inclusion
Administration Building, 1944


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Where are you going to college and what do you plan to major in?
I am currently attending Brown University and plan to major in environmental or mechanical engineering, although I am also considering computer science.
What were your favorite subjects during high school?
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"Giti's Angels" Team Wins First in Class at Final 2019 Nürburgring VLN Race
Throughout the year, a major story in German racing has been the introduction and success of Giti's "Girls Only" VW racing team. Helmed by Team Chief Ellen Lehmann, the team was is the first all-female squad during Nürburgring's long and storied history. In addition to the drivers, all of the technical and other crew are also female, with a determined personality that has drawn notoriety from around the world.
Throughout the nine-race high-profile VLN Endurance Championship series held at Nürburgring this year, the Giti's Angels 300 WV Golf VII GTI TCR car has performed very competitively. Notably the team had an emotional story at the headline 24 Hours Nürburgring race in June, with its crew spending many hours overnight to repair their heavily damaged engine to finish the remainder of the race, drawing great accolades for their perseverance. However – despite coming very close – during the season they had not been able to win first place in their highly competitive SP3T class.
That all changed during a spectacular performance during the last VLN weekend. After a strong start during the qualifying rounds, the Sunday race started off a bit slow, but the Giti's Angels team steadily advanced. Célia Martin took the cockpit after eight laps and advanced the car to second place in a tremendous performance. Carrie Schreiner then took over the cockpit for the last stint with lightning speed, building up pressure on the leading car. Second place was now safe, but the team wanted more.
Corinna Schäfer, Race Engineer described: "We saw on the GPS that Carrie could do another lap, if she crossed the finish line in front of the overall leader. That was pretty close. But we calculated that the fuel was enough and we also saw the leading car with some problems. That was our chance and we had to strike." Schreiner pushed and implemented the instructions. She drove the day's best time in the class and took over the lead after four hours of racing, finishing the team turnaround to take the SP3T class championship! They also placed an extremely impressive #36 out of 162 throughout all participating drivers and classes.
In addition to the Giti's Angels incredible performance, Giti Tire's Audi R8 LMS Ultra, Audi R8 GT4, and Golf VI GTI all showed terrific performance throughout the year during its Nürburgring competitions. In particular, Giti's two Audi R8 vehicles showed extreme performance and strength both in their class and among the entire racing fields, including a superb #1/#2 finish in the very strong SP8 class at the 24 Hours Nürburgring, which included a 20th place finish of the overall of the top vehicles from around the world.
Altogether, 2019 was truly a season to remember for Giti in its German racing. Thorsten Willems, Teamchief of Giti Tire Motorsport by WS Racing described how the final VLN weekend was a great way to finish such a memorable season.
"The whole team did a great job over the weekend and everything went perfectly. The GitiCompete GTR1, which underlined our performance, made a big contribution to this success. A big 'Thank You' to Giti Tire and their European Development Center at Hannover, who did a great job."Thorsten Willems Teamchief of Giti Tire Motorsport by WS Racing
GITI NEWS | related:
Giti Motorsports
Giti's global motorsports current and recent activities include the renowned Nürburgring 24 Hours endurance race, official tire supplier to Super Truck racing championship in Australia, the Fun Cup racing series in the UK, newly announced tire supplier for the Formula 3 Asia Series, as well as collaborating with many other teams and racing series around the world.
The 2019 Giti Motorsports schedule can be viewed at http://www.gitiglobal.com/Motorsports/2019