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At 41 years of age, time was already fast running out of time for Manny Pacquiao to land one or two massive fights to end his tenure in the sport.
Linked to a huge rematch with Floyd Mayweather in 2020, it was clear the 'Pacman' was holding off for something big after dethroning Keith Thurman last July.
Enjoying one of his best years for some time, Pacquiao was named WBN Fighter of the Year for 2019 through a fan vote on www.worldboxingnews.net.
Ready to capitalize on once again holding a world welterweight title, the Filipino Senator wanting big bucks before walking away for good.
So, weeks of waiting turned into months and soon will be a year since his last fight. Enter the coronavirus and Pacquiao is now living on borrowed time.
Boxing is suspended until the summer – at the very least. Pacquiao may even be 42 before he laces up the gloves again.
Taking an eighteen-month partly enforced timeout from the sport at this stage of his career was highly unthinkable for Pacquiao.
Taking advantage of the fact he was still just as good as anyone out there at 147 pounds would have been key to any fights against the big boys.
Obviously, taking on Floyd again remains an option for a further aged Pacquiao, but facing the likes of Errol Spence or Terence Crawford in 2021 could prove an impossible task.
It was already a tough job at 41, but having a year and a half on the sidelines would make Pacquiao a massive underdog against either.
Do I have any doubts that Pacquiao will fight again? – Simply put, NO. But will we ever see Pacquiao is the same form as the Thurman fight again? – Probably not.
Effectively, the COVID-19 breakout has ended Pacquiao's ability to compete before it's time and he may struggle to put another win on the board.
What a sad end to a legendary Hall of Fame ring stint it could prove to be for one of the greatest fighters of all time.
Where should Pacquiao turn to? – Possibly going for the MMA stars would be the best option.
Pacquiao could make a lot of money against a Conor McGregor or a Khabib and still have all the advantages in his favor.
But facing a Spence or a Crawford has seemingly been cut-off by an unprecedented world event, which nobody could have foreseen coming.
Let's hope predictions of boxing being off the menu for up to a year don't come to fruition.

subset: commoncrawl


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Updated: 8 hours ago
Wildfire danger is elevated as dry conditions persist and wind increases across Western Colorado late this week.
Updated: Sep. 24, 2023 at 7:06 PM MDT
Cool mornings will gradually become less cool while warm afternoons gradually become a little warmer this week.
Updated: Sep. 20, 2023 at 6:18 PM MDT
Wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible Thursday and Friday as a strong storm system tracks over Colorado and begins a transition toward a cooler, Autumn-like weekend.
Updated: Sep. 19, 2023 at 6:20 PM MDT
A few showers are possible on Wednesday, then cooler weather is on track to arrive Friday.
Updated: Sep. 18, 2023 at 4:44 AM MDT
Live to VOD recordings of KJCT's newscasts
Updated: Sep. 17, 2023 at 6:49 PM MDT
We're starting our new week with a small chance for a few showers, but as is often the case, most of the showers will be over the higher terrain.


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Diabetes Skin Care – What You Need to Know and What You Can Do
Taking care of our skin is always important, but in diabetes skin care requires more consideration. The skin, our body's largest organ, is a vital physical barrier between the outside world and everything inside us. Although it seems like a pretty simple thing, there are many blood vessels, nerves and various other structures within it. These all affect the integrity of our skin, and influences how well it does its job.
It's in Your Blood
One primary cause of medical complications in diabetes is high blood glucose levels, especially if levels are consistently high over a prolonged period of time. High levels of circulating glucose can lead to damage to the body's blood vessels. Since all organs in the body rely on blood perfusion from these vessels, any damage to them can lead to problems for the respective organs.
People with diabetes may thus be at risk of various complications if their blood glucose levels are not adequately controlled. These may include eye problems (such as retinopathy), kidney damage (nephropathy) and, of course, skin issues. The cells of our skin need good blood flow to maintain its integrity.
Other factors, like high blood pressure and high cholesterol, may also increase the risk of blood vessel damage. For people with diabetes, it's important for blood pressure and cholesterol to also be monitored regularly. If you have concerns about these, you should talk to your doctor about appropriate monitoring and management.
Nerves Know the Problems
Nerves in the skin detect things like heat and pain to let us know when there are problems or danger Continue reading


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pManifold was the knowledge partner at 2nd Annual Electric Vehicle India Summit 2019 which was held from 25th – 27th February in Delhi organised by Explore Exhibition
The Summit was held for 3 days. 1-day Workshop followed by 2 days Conference where various EV Thought Leaders imparted knowledge & shared their insights with the audience.
Day 2 Rahul Bagdia, Director and Co-Founder, pManifold Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. Moderated Panel Discussion:
What Indian EV industry needs in terms of policy changes in order to create the thrust.
- EV Policies & Regulations – Current EV policies and regulations and their implications. How the federal, state, and local regulations interact with one another
- Moving forward: What to expect from the new policies & their regulatory standpoint. Best practices & FAQs in regulatory frameworks to facilitate market-friendly uptake programs
- Electric Vehicles moving forward? – The current state of Electric Vehicles, manufacturer's perspective
Presentation coverage by Rahul Bagdia:
Day 3 Rahul Bagdia was a speaker and spoke on An in-depth survey into the possibilities for e-2 wheelers and e-4 wheelers fraternity.
Presentation : EV Charging Economics for 2W, 3W, 4W and Bus, and associated Private Investments & Financing
- EV Adoption & Maturity across Vehicle Segments
- Mix of EV Charging Options and Infra at City Level
- Economics for EV & Charging
- Business Models, Investments & Financing
pManifold launched "India EV Outlook Survey 2019Q1" during EV India Summit 2019 to consolidate industry views around some of the most important questions around EVs and India forward standing. Speakers & Participants actively participated in LIVE POLL and received an opportunity to see LIVE results.
We have launched it on one of our venture company pManifold Infolabs developed LIVE polling app "Consult Engine". You can install it using Google play store on your Android, or take it on web app at https://app.consultengine.com/


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Joe Root and the Yorkshire Vikings displayed genuine sportsmanship in their decision not to run out Lancashire Lightning's Steven Croft during their T20 Blast fixture on Saturday. By the first ball of the eighteenth over, Lancashire required just 15 runs off 18 deliveries, and Croft was called through for a quick single by his batting partner Luke Wells.
Half way up the wicket, however, Croft fell in a heap, clutching his left hamstring. Yorkshire had the opportunity to take the bails off and get themselves back into the contest, but elected not to, allowing Croft to recover and eventually hit an unbeaten 26 to take his side to victory.
What would you have done?
Croft goes down injured mid run and @YorkshireCCC decide not to run him out#Blast21 pic.twitter.com/v1JHVGLn1T
— Vitality Blast (@VitalityBlast) July 17, 2021
The incident has divided onlookers, with many praising a demonstration of the often-cited but rarely tangible spirit of cricket, and others criticising Yorkshire for foregoing an opportunity to gain a foothold in a game against their oldest rivals. Mark Butcher told Sky Sports that he was "baffled", urging Yorkshire to "run him out, and deal with it afterwards".
Butcher's view seems contradictory of a game that has always prided itself on acts of magnanimity. After Australia's Test side brought the sport to its nadir of niceness, Root has brought much-needed respite from endless sledging and off-field enmity. Given Yorkshire had already qualified for the quarter-finals, the backlash seems overblown.
Any Roses game must of course be treated with the utmost respect, but the Blast remains a family event aimed at involving young kids and newcomers in the game. I am not sure we want those fresh faces seeing their new-found idols engaging in gamesmanship and bad-spirited cricket. On the contrary, Root showed why he is so widely revered on and off the field.
As the Hundred commences and cricket welcomes more of the uninitiated onto its shores, the game finds itself in a precarious position. Amongst the fireworks, DJ sets and neon graphics, cricket's spirit remains its biggest asset. Yorkshire setting such a precedent on live television will go far in protecting it.


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Lester Jackson believes that it's his responsibility as an artist to express a full range of emotions in his work. "You have to be ready to fight through your music," he says. "You have to be ready to scream through your music. You have to be ready to love through your music."
Over the course of the past year Jackson, who records as Nathaniel Star, has done exactly that. On 2019's Bush Master, he surveyed his heritage and history, channeling his African and American ancestors both lyrically and musically. On follow-up EL'Negro, released in February of this year, Jackson continued that work, dedicating 29 songs—one for each day of Black History Month 2020—to the Black diaspora.
Now, after two consecutive records of heavy, necessary social commentary, Jackson is ready to love through his music. His latest record, Eros, is a 20-track R&B and neo-soul journey through romantic love. Eros is an oasis, Jackson says, one he wanted to share with listeners who might need sanctuary during the uprising in support of racial justice, and amidst the uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic. He knows the need for refuge firsthand: the week of Eros' release marks the third anniversary of the deadly Unite the Right rally in his hometown of Charlottesville, Virginia.
Romantic love, says Jackson, "is the type of love that takes your mind away from everything else. The world could be on fire, literally, but if you're in the room smashin', it doesn't matter. There's nothing else but that in that moment." Jackson created Eros with producer and musician AJ "Vintage GotDaHeat" Johnson, who has written the music for every Nathaniel Star release to date. Once they decided on the album's theme, Johnson focused on the ups and downs of love as he composed the music, using keyboards, drum machine, vocoder, and lap bass to capture certain moods. Later, Jackson and a few guest vocalists would mirror those moods in their lyrics.
Eros begins with "1500 B.C.," a buttery track that describes the sensation of immediately feeling a deep, almost historic connection with someone. "Baby can I flow with you/ On the River Nile?" Jackson sings, his voice honey-smooth. The rest of the album moves past the glitter of first attraction through the throb of lust and the ecstasy of sex, coasting along to the assured bob of "Middle Peace" before hitting the emotional rapids.
As Jackson sings in "Let Me Know," every love story has a beginning, but most don't have a happy ending. And so Eros includes a lamentation on messing up ("Love Goes") and an apology song, acknowledging that forgiveness doesn't always mean things are going to work out ("Retake Yesterday").
On their previous collaborations, Jackson executed clever wordplay (from "Voices in the Night," on Bush Master: "They say they hear the pain in my music/ I'm not in pain, I just listen to my veins/ And the slain choose to use it/ Swing low sweet chariot, I sojourn the truth, park on the rose/ And pick up Harriet"), while Johnson provided music that was deft and intricate. By contrast, Eros is purposefully direct. "I wanted to be poetic, of course…but love in itself is complex enough. [We didn't need to] make it…more difficult to understand than it naturally is in the first place," says Jackson.
"Artistically, I try to get as naked as I can with everything I make," he says (and that's not just because he writes most of his lyrics and melodies in the shower). That's why he never revises his lyrics, no matter the topic. "I feel like I'm cheating myself, and I'm cheating people who are listening if I don't give it everything that I possibly can. I don't think I've written a song and said, 'Oh, that's too much, let me pull it back,' or 'Let me not put it in there.' If it comes to me, it's coming to you."
Eros isn't about one romantic relationship, it's about the fact that each relationship is singular; each follows its own course, and often they don't work out.. until they do. That's the place where the record ends, on "Peach Cobbler," a song that describes the place Jackson hopes to end up in love: "Loving someone on the front porch with a glass of lemonade, like my grandparents' type love," he says. "Pure, innocent, old-school, vintage love."
Jackson and Johnson have more Nathaniel Star projects due out soon, each exploring a different genre—one apiece in Afrobeat, blues, angsty rap-rock, West Coast rap, and country. When the next album arrives, it will bring with it both an exploration of a new sound, as well as a new theme. For now, though, it's all about love. "Love is the only thing in the universe that is supremely pure, so we will always have people making music about it. You have to," says Jackson. "This is just me, in my time, in my generation, my experience, putting my cog in the wheel. As an artist, if you don't at least address that ever-evolving, always revolving, field of love, you haven't really done your part as an artist. I owed it to myself and I owed it to the art."


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Kaunas University of Technology (KTU) is encouraging young researchers to use new possibilities to kick-start their scientific careers. This year, the University will allocate more than 200 thousand euros for encouraging PhD students' and young doctors of science research projects and initiatives.
The funding was a private grant, and it is expected that it will increase the competitiveness of the University by strengthening the priority research and study areas. The additional funding will be allocated to those PhD students and postdocs, who are conducting their research in the areas of health technologies, food technologies, transport and aviation technologies, new materials for industry and medicine, digital transformation and smart environments, innovation management.
"We are very happy to see that the university's initiative to strengthen the priority areas in research and studies is being supported not only by the state, but also by private funding. In these areas, we are aiming for leadership on European level", says Jurgita Šiugždinienė, KTU Rector ad interim.
Continuous strengthening and development of priority areas in study and research, supported by additional investments and human resources will not only promote the University's name, visibility and status in international arena, but will also encourage the economic development of the region. This, in turn will increase the appeal of Lithuanian economic environment for the high-added value business and industry.
"This investment is of utmost importance when we talk about support for talented young people who are willing to start their scientific career in the areas of chemistry, chemical engineering, informatics, informatics engineering, electrical and electronics, materials engineering, transport engineering or management", says Asta Pundzienė, Vice-Rector for Research and Innovations ad interim.
The open competition for postdoctoral traineeship projects was announced in the end of May. The deadline for submission of documents is 22 June 2018. More information here.
8 PhD students admitted to the priority PhD study fields will get an opportunity to receive an additional scholarship. More information here.


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How to make colour-changing cabbage | Do Try This At Home | We The Curious
This week Lisa & Bonnie show you a colourful chemical cabbage concoction you can create at home! How to make a pink pixel: https://youtu.be/Vwu-yjFmgW0 This video was presented by: Lisa Heywood & Bonnie Buckley Produced by: Ross Exton, Live Science Video Producer Twitter: https://twitter.com/we_the_curious Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wethecurious Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/we_the_curious/ We The Curious is an idea and […]Read More
How to make something invisible | Do Try This At Home | At-Bristol Science Centre
Invisibility cloaks might sound like science fiction, but Ross of the Live Science Team shows you how a trick of light can make things disappear in this great experiment to try at home! This video was presented by: Ross Exton, Live Science Video Producer Produced by: Ross Exton & Seamus Foley, Big Screen Producer The […]Read More


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Evolution in the Hawaiian Islands has produced a unique avian assemblage. Unfortunately, many of these bird species are highly endangered or extinct. Despite numerous and increasing threats and great effort aimed at saving endemic birds, we lack basic science necessary for understanding many species of concern. One such species is the critically endangered Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri), a rare songbird endemic to the island of Kaua'i and the only remaining native thrush on the island. At present, the Puaiohi's breeding population is estimated to be ~500 birds restricted to the Alaka'i Wilderness Preserve. We collected demographic data from 2007–2012 and supplemented it with published sources. Using Vortex, we developed stochastic population models to represent Puaiohi population dynamics under current and potential management scenarios to determine management's potential efficacy in aiding species recovery. Management scenarios modeled included rat control, habitat improvement, general survival facilitation, and provision of nest boxes. The model indicated a decline in abundance with a growth rate (r) of -0.267 under baseline conditions. Female and juvenile survival appeared to be the most influential parameters related to population growth and persistence, so management should focus on increasing female and juvenile Puaiohi survival. Rat control, even at more conservative levels, appeared to be the most effective method of increasing Puaiohi abundance. Our results indicate that practical, attainable management activities can increase Puaiohi and bring the species back from the brink of extinction. Such findings provide an example for other endangered species conservation efforts.
Citation: Fantle-Lepczyk J, Taylor A, Duffy DC, Crampton LH, Conant S (2018) Using population viability analysis to evaluate management activities for an endangered Hawaiian endemic, the Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri). PLoS ONE 13(6): e0198952. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198952
Editor: Bi-Song Yue, Sichuan University, CHINA
Received: October 26, 2017; Accepted: May 29, 2018; Published: June 13, 2018
Copyright: © 2018 Fantle-Lepczyk et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Data Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and found in the tables.
Funding: Project support was provided by the Watson T. Yoshimoto Fellowship of the Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology program of the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa for the purchase of RAMAS software and travel funds to the field site.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
The Hawaiian Islands are home to a rare and evolutionarily unique, but rapidly disappearing, assemblage of birds [1, 2]. Once home to 152 land bird species, 110 of these have gone extinct since human arrival [3]. Thirty-three of its remaining 42 endemic birds are listed as endangered or threatened, making Hawai'i home to one of the most endangered avifaunas in the world [3,4]. However, despite these great threats and relatively large management expenditures directed at saving endemic birds, some of the most basic science necessary for understanding species of concern has not been done [5]. For instance, population models and population viability analyses (PVA) have not been conducted for 66% of Hawaii's endangered avifauna, representing a critical gap in knowledge. This lack of knowledge is problematic, given that population viability is a criterion used for down listing (or de-listing) Puaiohi and its recovery plan lists population modeling as a recovery objective for the species [6]. To accurately assess the viability of these endangered species in the face of a changing climate, invasive species, and human population growth, and to provide the basis for conservation of these critical species, population models and PVA are urgently needed.
The Endangered Puaiohi, or Small Kaua'i Thrush, (Myadestes palmeri) is one of the critically endangered [7] bird species that has yet to be evaluated in terms of its population dynamics. Endemic to Kaua'i, the Puaiohi is the only remaining avian native frugivore on the island so it may play a critical role in the persistence of native plant species and their associated invertebrates. The Puaiohi is also one of the last six endemic forest bird species to remain in Kauai's Alaka'i Swamp [8]. Although some of these species were rare at the turn of the 20th century [9], most were more common than the Puaiohi. In fact, its larger congener, the Kāma'o, was once the most common forest bird on Kaua'i [9, 10], yet the Puaiohi has persisted while the Kāma'o is now extinct.
The Puaiohi has experienced range contraction since the 1960s [6, 10], as it is no longer found at lower elevations (1,000–1,050 meters) and is currently restricted to a remnant of the Alaka'i Wilderness Preserve at 1,050 to 1,300 meters. Over the past 20 years, three different estimates of Puaiohi population have been calculated, using different techniques in terms of approach and rigor [11]. While these estimates have overlapping ranges in population size (300–500 birds using data from 1995–1998, 270–525 birds using data from 2003–2005, 414–580 birds using data from 2011–2013), generating an assumption of population stability, data types and methods varied, complicating comparisons. Given the lack of consistent approaches, long-term population trends remain unclear. Several factors are thought to affect population vulnerability, including drought, hurricanes, mammalian (rat [Rattus spp.] and cats [Felis catus]) predation at all life stages, disease (particularly infection with avian malaria [Plasmodium relictum] and potentially avian pox [Avipoxvirus spp.]), and habitat degradation due to feral livestock (pigs and goats) and invasive plants [6, 12, 13, 14, 15]. The Puaiohi's preference for nesting along stream banks on fern-covered ledges may limit the availability of suitable nest sites, particularly because invasive plants often cover cliff faces [14].
Given the Puaiohi's small population size and range, it is essential to gain a better understanding of the conditions which affect its recruitment and survival, as it faces many potential hazards of unknown impact. One useful tool conservation biologists can use to quantify the risk of extinction and to examine the relative benefits of alternative management actions is population viability analysis (PVA) [16] which incorporates demographic and environmental variables to forecast population persistence and extinction risk. Although the significance of the actual quantitative model results may be somewhat limited, PVA is useful for testing the relative importance of model parameters via sensitivity analysis, evaluating management strategies, and identifying priorities for maximizing effective species recovery [17, 18, 19, 20]. Such model revelations provide conservation biologists with insights into where they need to devote resources in order to develop the best possible parameter estimates and which demographic characteristics of the population are the most efficacious to manage in terms of conserving the population. In addition to providing information on specific demographic factors, PVA can be used to rank management options amongst a suite of possible activities (e.g., [21, 22, 23]). This predictive power allows managers to explore the possible outcomes of a suite of management options without risking potentially ineffectual ones on a species that needs immediate help.
The goal of this research is to inform Puaiohi conservation by comparing potential management options, and to use these comparisons to develop best management practices. To address this goal, we modeled Puaiohi populations under current and potential future management scenarios to determine their potential efficacy in aiding in the recovery of this rare and ecologically important species. We predicted that extinction probability would decrease and population growth rate increase if predators were controlled, safer nesting alternatives and/or supplemental food were provided, or survival was increased via control of malaria or other methods. Because many of the issues facing Puaiohi are the same as those faced by the other Hawaiian forest birds, this research may therefore provide a template for similar approaches for other forest birds of Hawai'i.
Study area
The primary data used for calculating parameters were collected from 2005–2011 at four sites in the Alaka'i Wilderness Perserve (22.0897° N, 159.5619° W): Kawaikōī, Koaie, Mohihi, and Halepa'akai. All data used in this paper were collected by the Kaua'i Forest Bird Recovery Project, a cooperative project of the Pacific Cooperative Studies Unit of the University of Hawai'i and the State of Hawai'i Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Forestry and Wildlife. The Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife permitted access to the Nā Pali Forest Reserve and the Alaka'i Wilderness Preserve, while the Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service provided permits to work with Puaiohi. The study sites ranged in elevation from 1,123–1,303 meters above sea level and occurred in the native wet and mesic forests in the Alaka'i Plateau inhabited by Puaiohi. These forests are dominated by 'ōhi'a (Metrosideros polymorpha), koa (Acacia koa), ōlapa (Cheirodendron trigynum), lapalapa (C. platyphyllum), 'ōhi'a ha (Syzygium sandwicensis), kāwa'u (Ilex anomala), and kōlea (Myrsine lessertiana), with a diverse understory of native plants including 'ōhelo (Vaccinium calycinum), and kanawao (Broussaisia arguta) [6]. These forests are amongst the wettest in the world, with annual rainfall averaging 6.5 m [24].
PVA software
We conducted our PVAs using Vortex 10 [25] which simulates stochastic demographic and environmental processes. Vortex is an individual-based simulation model that follows the fates of each animal in the simulated population from birth to death, with all events happening according to defined probabilities.
Baseline model inputs
Within Vortex (Table 1), we developed baseline models using all available information on Puaiohi. Each model was simulated 1,000 times [26], over a time frame of 25 years. Although long term preservation of the species is the ultimate goal, we felt the recovery program is currently driven by urgent short-term needs. Furthermore, longer term time spans tend to produce higher extinction probabilities [27], propagate errors [17], and produce more uncertain events [28]. Thus, we chose the relatively short time frame of 25 years because it allowed for exploring and testing the immediate effects of management strategies while minimizing the effects of uncertainties or errors in our parameter estimates. We defined extinction as occurring when only one sex remained.
Four cohorts or stages were modeled: Juvenile females, adult females, juvenile males, and adult males. We developed our demographic input parameters from a variety of sources, including original data, previously published information, and discussion with experts on the species. Because little is known about the genetics, effects or impacts of inbreeding depression on Puaiohi, we developed models both with and without inbreeding depression included (Table 2); for the model incorporating inbreeding, we used the default heterosis model of 6.29 lethal equivalents, 50% due to recessive lethals. We tested whether inclusion of inbreeding depression mattered using equivalency testing in Minitab 17.3.1. Equivalence testing is a statistical tool used to test whether observations from two groups are similar enough to be biologically analogous. In equivalence testing, the null hypothesis is that the difference between the means is greater than a researcher-defined amount, which is referred to as "interval of tolerable difference." We defined the limits at which we considered model output differences to be equivalent as ± 0.02 stochastic r (essentially ± 2% annual growth rate) and ± 10 individuals remaining at 25 years. We found inbreeding depression models to be equivalent to non-inbreeding models based upon these defined limits (p < 0.021), and therefore did not include the variable in the model. We assumed that the effects of environmental variation on reproduction and survival were correlated.
The model in bold, Baseline without inbreeding, was chosen as the baseline for all model scenario comparisons. Equivalency testing of model output (stochastic r and N extant) shows models with and without inbreeding depression to be equivalent, so we chose to exclude inbreeding depression. The Baseline without inbreeding model, with a steepness value of 8, was equivalent to models with steepness 4 or steepness 16. As a result, we chose to use a steepness value of 8 in our baseline model.
We assumed Puaiohi are monogamous [15], and pairs probably persist from year to year, provided mates survive. Individuals of both sexes can breed at a year old. Though one study observed after hatch year birds helping at 8% of nests, suggesting they may have needed to delay reproduction due to some sort of limiting factor [29], helping behavior has not been seen in other studies. Thus, we assumed that, in general, birds would breed at one-year old, and would breed each year. Puaiohi always lay two eggs per clutch [14], and during the 2007–2009 study period fledged one chick in 30.77% of attempts and two chicks in 69.23% of attempts. Previous studies found up to five nest attempts per season [29], while we never saw more than four true nest attempts per season between 2007 and 2009. As a result, we assumed four nest attempts to be a reasonable maximum [during the 2007–2009 study period the distribution of successful nest attempts was: 0 (13.16%), 1 (42.11%), 2 (36.84%), 3 (5.26%), and 4 (2.63%)]. A Puaiohi mist-netted as a hatch-year bird in 1965 survived in captivity until it was 11 years old [29]. The longest lived captive female died at 16 years old at the Maui Bird Conservation Center (MBCC), but stopped laying eggs at nine years old. The oldest captive male lived for 13 years and was still able to fertilize eggs the breeding season before he died and other individuals have lived as long as 10 years (S. Belcher, personal communication). As a result, we decided that a maximum life span of 10 years was reasonable. Of 118 eggs laid at the MBCC, 57 hatched males and 61 females (S. Belcher, personal communication), which we used as the basis for a 1:1 sex ratio at hatch.
Density dependence.
Vortex models density dependence in terms of its effect on reproduction as: P(N) = (P(0)-((P(0)-P(K))*((N/K)^B)))*(N/(A+N)); where P(0) is the percentage of adult females breeding at low density; P(K) is the percentage of adult females breeding at carrying capacity; N is initial population size; K is carrying capacity; B is a steepness parameter, which determines the shape of the curve relating the percentage of adult females breeding to population size; and A is the Allee parameter, which accounts for the decrease in the proportion of females breeding at low densities, due to of the increased difficulty of finding a mate at low population densities. We assumed that Puaiohi would be density-dependent, given that it is a territorial bird with limited nesting sites and food sources. During intensive territory mapping from 2007–2009, an average of 90% of the population encountered was breeding. However, by the 2009 census, fecundity appeared to drop off slightly, perhaps due to the population nearing K. Thus, we assumed 90% of the population was breeding at K. Given that a large proportion of the population still seemed to be breeding at K, we assumed that 100% of the population would breed at low density. In the absence of data to the contrary and given that Puaiohi occur in a relatively small remnant habitat area we assumed the Allee effect was zero. To determine the appropriate steepness parameter, we graphed a series of density dependent population projection plots using steepness parameters from 0.25 to 16. A steepness parameter of 8 looked the most reasonable, although 4 and 16 also seemed plausible. To test the influence of the steepness parameter, we ran three versions of the baseline without inbreeding model, with steepness values of 4, 8, and 16 (Table 2), and as with inbreeding, tested for equivalency with Minitab 17.3.1, within the self-defined limits of ± 0.02 stochastic r and ± 10 individuals remaining at 25 years. Because all models showed equivalent results (p < 0.03), we chose to use a steepness value of 8 in our baseline model. Vortex used the parameters of percent breeding at low density and percent breeding at high density, the Allee parameter and the steepness parameter to automatically calculate the percent of adult females breeding. For the environmental variation in percent breeding, we used default values of 10% in the absence of other data. We do know that except in extreme weather years, fecundity rates, at least, are fairly stable [30]. Finally, we assumed that 100% of males would be in the breeding pool, though all may not find mates due to limited females resulting from higher female mortality [31].
Using mark-recapture analysis to estimate the annual survival of juvenile and adult Puaiohi, previous research found that adult males survived at a higher rate (71 ± 9% SE) than females (46 ± 12% SE), and indicated that rat predation may be a significant factor in female mortality [31], a pattern common in other Hawaiian passerines [32, 33,34,35]. Additionally, previous research found juvenile survival to be quite low (26 ± 21% SE) [31], which may limit population growth. Recently fledged young tend to remain on the ground for about four days after fledging, making them particularly vulnerable to predation by rats and feral cats. We used these survival estimates in our baseline model, as they represent the only long-term estimate of Puaiohi survival rates. Given the relatively high mortalities of juveniles and females and the low starting population, we found our model declined rapidly to zero with environmental variations in mortality rate greater than 10%. Furthermore, as with percent breeding, we assumed that in this relatively stable island environment we would not see large annual fluctuations in mortality rates. Thus, we used Vortex's default, relatively modest deviation in mortality rate of 10% for juvenile mortality and 3% for adult mortalities.
Population size and carrying capacity.
In the absence of information to the contrary, we assumed Puaiohi achieve a stable age distribution. Estimates of population size have varied, from conservatively exceeding 200 [29] to around 500 [6, 11]. We used the more recent USFWS estimates in our models as they were the most recent and based on the longest-term dataset. No attempts have been made to estimate Puaiohi carrying capacity in the Alaka'i Swamp. However, the Puaiohi population is strongly linked to streams, and there have been estimates of bird densities along those streams. Specifically, within Puaiohi habitat, there are ~221 km of streams, about half of which had enough cliff face to be suitable for nesting. At peak nesting density in 2009, with nest success declining (perhaps indicating the population was approaching K), we found 27 nesting territories over 6 km of suitable habitat. Assuming two Puaiohi per territory, this yields an upper limit of 1,062 birds over the 118 km of suitable habitat. For our estimate of K, we rounded up to 1,100 to include in the population any unpaired or floater birds also utilizing the resources. This may be an overestimate of K, as these numbers are estimated from one of the higher nest density streams, and not all streams are likely to support this number of birds. However, in the interest of testing increases in other demographics of interest, we choose to err on the side of overestimation to give our modeled populations some room for increase. In the absence of better information, we assumed fluctuation in K due to environmental variation to be ±10%.
Software output.
Vortex's standard output provided us with stochastic r, probability of extinction within 25 years, average population size at 25 years, median time to extinction (provided 50% of simulations went extinct), and mean time to extinction for populations that went extinct within 25 years.
Sensitivity analysis
We performed sensitivity analysis to understand how uncertainty about parameter values affect model outcomes [36]. We varied each key parameter by ±10%, ±25%, and ±50%, while holding all other parameters to baseline values. The parameters examined were starting population, carrying capacity, and juvenile, male, female and combined adult mortalities, number of reproductive attempts per year, and number of young produced per attempt. We used a standard sensitivity index (Sx) [37] for sensitivity analysis. Baseline model values were used to compute the standard sensitivity index for each parameter, which was calculated as: Eq 1 where x is the output value (stochastic r/λ or N extant) and P is the parameter of interest.
Since the model's sensitivity to mortality at all life stages was of particular interest to us, we also wished to evaluate what levels of error in mortality estimates would provide a stable population projection. To investigate this further, we decreased all mortality measures by 10%, 15%, 17.5%, 20%, 25% in order to determine what magnitude of decrease would be necessary to produce r = 0.
Management models
After assessing the relative influence of each individual input parameter, we used the best available data to develop a suite of potential management scenarios. The four management scenarios developed included rat management, habitat improvement, survival assistance, and the provision of nest boxes (Table 3). While these scenarios do not cover all threats faced by the species, they address the primary threats and limiting factors identified in the species recovery plan [6]. To reflect the uncertainty in some of our estimations, we developed two levels of each management activity—standard and conservative.
For the optimistic rat management models, we decreased female mortality to that of males, since recent work [31] suggests than mortality due to nest predation by rats is the leading driver behind the higher mortality rates in females. We surmised that in a best-case scenario, removal of rats would produce female mortality rates akin to males. In the O'ahu 'Elepaio, rat control has been shown to increase female survival by 10%-27% [33, 34] which may make our optimistic estimate slightly high. We increased the number of successful attempts/year by 50%, as previous research [14] found that 50% more nests fledged young with rat control. No experimental data exists to quantify rat predation effect on juvenile mortality. However, we surmised that rat removal would have less impact on juvenile mortality than on adult female mortality, as juveniles are probably subject to a greater range of mortality effects, and they are likely mostly vulnerable to rat predation in just the first days after fledging. As a result, we decreased juvenile mortality by 25%. We presumed the removal of rats would not have much effect on male mortality, since males do not incubate eggs on the nest (when females are presumably most vulnerable to rat predation) nor would rat removal affect the number of young fledged/attempt since if a rat found a nest, it would likely kill both chicks, resulting in a failed attempt. Since rats are known to consume a variety of native fruits and may damage native fruiting plants [1, 10], we assumed that they may have some effect on carrying capacity of Puaiohi as competitors for preferred food sources. As a result, we increased carrying capacity by 25%.
In our conservative rat management model, we decreased female mortality by only 25% to allow for incomplete rat control as well as the possibility of other causes of female mortality during breeding. We lowered the increase in number of successful attempts per year to 25% more than baseline to allow for any overestimates in a previous experiment [14], and for other causes of nest failure. Finally, in the absence of data, in our more conservative model we lowered juvenile mortality by 10% and increased carrying capacity by 10%. Again, we assumed rat removal would not affect male mortality or the number fledged per attempt.
In our nest box models, we assumed that we can eventually design a rat proof nest box design that will be readily used by Puaiohi. In this event, females and nests would be protected from rat predation, but there would be no effect on juvenile survival as they would have not added protection once they left the nest. Furthermore, assuming nest sites are a limiting factor, providing more nest sites would increase carrying capacity. As a result, in our optimistic nest box model, we decreased female mortality to that of males, and increased the number of successful attempts/year by 50%, as was done in the rat management models. We also increased carrying capacity by 25%. In our conservative nest box models, we decreased female mortality by 25%, increased the number of successful attempts per year by 25%, and increased K by 10%. We assumed no effect on male mortality, the number of young fledged per attempt, or juvenile mortality.
In our survival assistance models, we explored the effect of just increasing Puaiohi survival at all post-fledging life stages, with no increases in fecundity or other factors. While Puaiohi mortality has likely increased due to several factors of recent origin, including the predatory issues explored in the previous two models, malarial infection is also a concern, though the extent of its impact on the population remains unclear. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) was detected in 22.7% of birds tested in 2007–2008 [38]. This high prevalence may indicate that at least some Puaiohi survive acute infection and have some tolerance of malaria [39]. There is evidence, albeit based on relatively small sample sizes, that survivorship of Puaiohi with chronic malaria is as good as those without malaria [31], but presumably some birds succumb to their first bout of malaria. Given the Puaiohi's absence from the lower elevation, where malaria is more prevalent, it seems likely that malaria does have some impact on the population, though habitat degradation and weed prevalence likely influences this distributional pattern as well. To attempt to model how eliminating the effects any non-predator related mortality factors, including malaria, might impact the Puaiohi population in the absence of any other population effects, we decreased mortality at all life stages (juvenile, adult female, and adult male) by an optimistic 25%. In the more conservative survival assistance model, we decreased all mortality by 10%. In the specific case of malaria, there is some evidence of that infection can cause nestling mortality, thereby reducing fecundity [40]. However, in the interest of keeping these models more general and to differentiate them from the habitat models which follow, we have not incorporated these effects in the survival assistance models.
Our final models looked at potential impacts of habitat improvements on the Puaiohi. This could be as the result of supplemental feeding of fruits as was provided to released, captive bred Puaiohi. Alternatively, habitat could be improved by controlling invasive species that outcompete native food sources, potentially decreasing food availability, particularly during the breeding season. Previous research by Snetsinger et al. [14] saw a 37.5% increase in nest attempts per year in wet years over drier years, presumably due at least in part to increased food supply following higher rainfall. Snetsinger et al. further noted a 54.5% increase in the number fledged per attempt in the wet year over the mean number fledged over the three years of study. However, one really dry year brings the mean down and likely over estimates this impact. Considering these findings, we increased the number of successful nesting attempts per year by 37.5% and number of young fledged/attempt by 25% (lower than Snetsinger et al.'s finding due to our concern of overestimation) to reflect the greater food supply by supplementation. We also assumed that increased food supply could slightly increase carrying capacity and slightly decrease juvenile, male, and female mortality, so those parameters were adjusted by 10%, accordingly. In our more conservative habitat improvement model, we increased number of attempts per year and young fledged per attempt and carrying capacity by 10% and decreased juvenile, male and female mortality by 10%. In both the optimistic and conservative habitat improvement models, we held all other parameters to baseline values.
To compare between management models, we describe results of stochastic r, mean population size, probability of extinction, and mean and median time to extinction in relation to one another. Specifically, we describe similarities and difference between management models as well as trends. We did not test for statistically significant differences among models because the results would be heavily dependent on our choice of how many replicate iterations of each model to use [41]. As a result, the model outputs are meant to provide guidance on management approaches that are likely to be successful relative to one another.
Recent work on the utility of PVAs to inform management decisions has suggested using the model output more explicitly to account for likelihood of success when a management action is performed compared to no action [42]. Specifically, evaluating the distributions of PVA parameters, such as rate of growth, between a baseline model and a management model allows for determination of success or failure by engaging in a management action. Using the approach of Robinson et al. [42], we evaluated Vortex model output for r between baseline and management models in order to determine what percent of the time the management models would lead to one of three outcomes: success, failure, or management not needed, as well as the probability that management worked when needed (calculated as Success/Success + Fail). From the raw data output by Vortex, we calculated the stochastic intrinsic growth rate (stochastic r) for each population iteration within a management scenario. In instances where the iteration experienced extinction before the end of the 25 years, we used time to extinction as t. If the number of individuals in the iteration hit carrying capacity (K) and oscillated around it, we truncated the time period to just before the population hit K (e.g., t = time to first year it exceeds 1,000, which is just below K, as density dependence started to influence the population's growth rate). If a population iteration failed to hit K, or hit K once and then declined, but did not go extinct by end of 25 years, then we used a t of 25.
The baseline model yielded a declining population (r = -0.27; Fig 1, Table 4). Probability of extinction was high (0.97), with nearly all populations going extinct. Furthermore, the mean time to extinction was 16.72 years, while median time to extinction was 17 years with a mean population size of 0.32 birds.
Probability of extinction and population size are within 25 years, and mean time to extinction is for all iterations that went extinct within 25 years.
Sensitivity analysis
Our models had little sensitivity to either initial population size or carrying capacity (Fig 2). In fact, varying either of these even ±50% had little impact on either growth rate or population size. The model was slightly more sensitive to perturbations in fecundity measures, although not nearly as sensitive as it was to mortality measures (Fig 2). In general, juvenile mortality was the most influential parameter in terms of both growth rate and population size, particularly for changes in the ±25% range. However, both growth rate and N are sensitive to adult mortality, with female mortality being relatively more influential than that of males at all levels of parameter change.
Sensitivity index (SI) of growth rate (A) and final population size (B). Increased distance from X axis (sensitivity index of 0) indicates more sensitivity.
While our baseline model predicts a rather steeply declining population, scientists have assumed Puaiohi populations have been stable for the last 40 years [6]. Given the models' sensitivity to mortality, we were concerned that inaccuracies in estimation of mortality may have resulted in the seemingly overly pessimistic predictions of our model. To investigate this further, we decreased all mortality measures by 10%, 15%, 17.5%, 20%, 25%. We found that stable growth (r = 0) was achieved with a decrease in mortality between 17.5% and 20% (Fig 3).
Management models
Overall the eight management models indicated increases in growth rate, population size, and time to extinction, and lower probabilities of extinction (Table 4) over the baseline model, although these improvements were less pronounced in the conservative versions of the nest box, supplemental feeding and survival assistance models, in which the population still declined fairly rapidly. While our baseline model exhibited negative growth rates, both the conservative and non-conservative rat control, as well as the non-conservative nest box, non-conservative supplemental feeding and non-conservative survival assistance models all exhibited positive growth rates. Although the conservative nest box, conservative supplemental feeding and conservative survival assistance models growth rates remained negative, they were still an improvement over baseline. For probability of extinction, the baseline model had a higher probability of extinction than all other models, with only the conservative supplemental feeding management model showing much risk of extinction. Population size was also markedly larger in management scenarios as compared to the baseline model, even in those scenarios exhibiting a negative growth rate. Finally, of models with iterations that went extinct, there were notable, if modest increases in mean time to extinction between baseline vs. management models. Median times to extinction were not produced for any management models since less than 50% of simulation iterations went extinct for all eight management models.
Of the eight management models, rat control resulted in the largest growth rates, increased population sizes, and zero risk of extinction (Table 4). The nest box model had smaller growth rates, but resulted in a higher population size, again with no risk of extinction. Survival assistance, habitat improvement, and conservative rat control resulted in positive growth rates, increased population size, and longer time to extinction, though of smaller magnitude than rat control and nest box provision models (Fig 1). Conversely, the conservative nest box, conservative survival assistance, and conservative habitat improvement models produced greater times to extinction, growth rates, and final population sizes than baseline models, although they did not result in positive growth rates.
Evaluating the management model outcomes relative to the baseline model showed a variety of responses in terms of either success or failure. Both rat control models demonstrated nearly 100% success in increasing growth rates to at least the target value (Table 5). However, for the other 3 types of management actions, only the standard versions of the models showed great success when compared to their conservative counterparts. Furthermore, even if our baseline is pessimistic and the Puaiohi population is in fact stable, all four standard models and the conservative rat control model still exhibit considerable improvement over current conditions.
Percentages represent the proportion of 1,000 iterations that resulted in one of three possible outcomes (Success, Not Needed, or Failure, see Robinson et al. (2015) for details). Also included is the probability that growth rate rose above stochastic r = 1 when starting below the target (management worked when needed, calculated as Success/Success + Fail).
The baseline models indicated negative growth trends and a high probability of extinction in the next 25 years. Because the population has been considered stable historically, it is possible that inaccuracies in parameter estimation may be contributing to our overly pessimistic population predictions. Given the model's sensitivity to estimates in mortality/survival, and the difficulty in obtaining these estimates, we suggest that this inaccuracy is the most likely cause. In fact, mortality errors of -17.5% to -20% would result in annual juvenile survival of 36%-38%, female survival of 55%-57%, and male survival of 76%-77%. These estimates, which are well within the 95% confidence limits of survival estimates [31] would lead to stable population growth rates. However, even though relatively small errors in survival estimates may affect our baseline models, it should be noted that two other members of the Alaka'i bird community, the 'Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), are currently undergoing severe population declines [43, 44], suggesting that our results cannot be discounted. Moreover, it is possible that since many of our inputs were calculated from recently collected data, what we are witnessing in the models is a population already in decline.
Regardless of whether the Puaiohi population is stable or declining, it is precariously small, and therefore, highly susceptible to any of the threats it currently faces as well as stochastic events. Hence, it is important that the population is increased and that we strive to increase habitat quality to support greater numbers of this endemic bird. Our management scenario results indicate that a variety of real world, attainable management activities have the potential to increase Puaiohi numbers. Our models confirm our predictions that controlling predators, providing safer nesting alternatives, and supplementing food will increase Puaiohi population growth rate and size. Specifically, rat control, even at conservative levels, appeared to be the most effective method of increasing Puaiohi abundance, as did the provisioning of predator-proof nest boxes. Sensitivity analysis indicates that whichever management action is chosen should incorporate increasing female and juvenile survival.
Caveats and future research
The mortality estimates used in our study are based on seven years of data, with somewhat limited re-sight data. It is possible that some emigration is being erroneously attributed to mortality, as it can be difficult to distinguish between the two in mark-recapture studies [45]. Given that our models are quite sensitive to changes in mortality estimates, and seem to be presenting a more pessimistic view than Puaiohi managers see in the field, further study to refine mortality estimates would be helpful.
In addition, reproductive estimates used in this study are based only on three years data and there can be variation in annual reproductive output, particularly associated with fluctuation in local weather patterns [14, 30]. Our dataset was not long enough to know whether these years were average background rate years, or if they represented the relatively rarer boom and bust years exhibited in very wet or very dry years, respectively. A longer study of annual reproductive output could help refine population analyses.
Further information on both current and future carrying capacity would also help improve model performance. At present, little is known regarding how many Puaiohi can be supported in their remaining habitat. Given the Puaiohi's rather particular nest site preference for the ledges of narrow stream cuts, nest site availability may limit population size [46, 47]. Furthermore, daisy fleabane (Erigeron annuus), a relatively new invasive plant, grows well on steep rock walls, and may cover and eliminate formerly suitable nest sites [46], thereby decreasing an already limited resource. Other recent plant introductions, such as blackberry (Rubus argutus), Australian tree fern (Cyathea cooperi), and strawberry guava (Psidium cattleianum) have significantly altered areas currently and recently occupied by Puaiohi [11], and may change the Alakai's future carrying capacity, as they have the potential to convert the forest canopy, understory and cliffs to novel habitats likely to be unsuitable to the species. At present, the Puaiohi's native range is being taken over by kāhili ginger (Hedychium gardnerianum), a well-known invasive plant which blankets native forests and displaces native vegetation [48]. While ginger is a fruiting plant, unlike natives such as ʻolapa (Cheirodendron trigynum), lapalapa (C. platyphyllum), ʻōhiʻa ha (Syzygium sandwicensis) and kanawao (Broussaisia argute), its peak October-December fruiting period is not contemporaneous with the Puaiohi nesting period [49], and Puaiohi do not appear to eat it (Pejchar, unpubl data).
Inbreeding depression is another demographic aspect which we were unable to adequately model in this study, due to lack of data. We found that using default values in Vortex did not significantly affect our models, but it is unclear whether these default values are appropriate for this bird. Puaiohi, along with the rest of Kauai's endangered birds, persist in numbers so low that lack of genetic diversity may pose potential problems, and population size may fall below the minimum viable population size recommended for long term maintenance of genetic diversity [6]. In fact, while the Puaiohi has been considered rare even historically [9], it does seem to have suffered a significant range contraction over the intervening years. Though the birds currently only occupy wet montane forest at 1,050 to 1,300 m [29], they have historically occupied lower mesic forests [9] and subfossil evidence of the species has been found in sinkholes and caves at sea level [50, 51]. Clearly, understanding the levels of genetic diversity still extant in the population could have ramifications for maintenance of the species. Furthermore, genetic studies could provide insight into the historical population size of the species. Recently, a captive breeding program for Puaiohi was discontinued due observed effects of inbreeding. Thus, managers are making important decisions based on a perceived loss of genetic diversity, and it would be useful to confirm the level left to be conserved in the wild population.
The effect of catastrophes on Puaiohi, particularly hurricanes and drought, is also unclear. Presumably, their preference for nesting in narrow stream corridors offers them some protection from the high winds associated with hurricanes [47]. Indeed, while 5 other species disappeared from the Alaka'i following Hurricanes 'Iwa (1982) and 'Iniki (1992) [8], the Puaiohi persisted. However, the species was likely extirpated from at least two areas at the edges of its range following these two storms [47]. Furthermore, in at least one drought year, Puaiohi experienced exceptionally low reproductive output, likely due to limited food availability [14]. However, we only have data from a single drought year. Thus, while future hurricanes and droughts will likely affect the remaining Puaiohi population, their precise effects remain unclear, and as such, were not incorporated into our model. Further examination of how these catastrophes may affect Puaiohi populations is warranted.
Our lack of understanding of these processes may be further compounded by the unpredictability of future climate conditions, which will likely affect the long-term accuracy of our models' predictions. Climate change has the potential to influence Puaiohi numbers in several ways. Hawai'i tends to be drier and drought-prone during strong El Niño events and wet during La Niña events, although the effect of the latter is more variable [52, 53, 54]. This relationship between drought and El Niño is of concern as evidence suggests that El Niño and La Niña events have been more variable and intense over the past several decades, presumably due to the increase in environmental temperatures produced by anthropogenic climate change [55, 56, 57]. If this trend in variability and intensity persists, overall yearly precipitation may decrease across Hawai'i [53], resulting in more years of low annual reproduction than Puaiohi can tolerate [30]. In addition, climate change scenarios often predict an increase in hurricanes [58]. Thus, understanding and modeling the effects of hurricanes on Puaiohi may become even more important to accurately predicting their future persistence.
Furthermore, because climate change may affect rates of malarial transmission, understanding the impacts of malaria on Puaiohi is urgently needed in order to evaluate the allocation of resources for decreasing the prevalence of malaria in Puaiohi habitat or to facilitate malarial resistance in the birds. The incidence of malaria is expected to increase with global climate change as warming temperatures allow the disease's mosquito vector to penetrate into the current malaria transitional zone (altitudes >1,400m). Thus, mosquito vectors will likely expand their distribution to higher elevations, thereby increasing infection rates [59]. Furthermore, declines in high magnitude precipitation events which flush mosquito larvae from streams, may increase mosquito breeding habitat, and thus adult disease vectors [38] within the Puaiohi's habitat.
While longer datasets and more support for some of our model assumptions would certainly increase our model confidence, it seems unlikely they would qualitatively affect our conclusions. Furthermore, the utility of PVA is less in the actual numbers it provides than as a means of comparing relative extinction risks, either between subpopulations of a species or between alternative management actions [18, 37, 60]. As with many forest bird species in Hawai'i, gathering additional data is time consuming and expensive given the species' often inaccessible locations and very small population sizes. Thus, while gaining more information would be useful, given the limited resources that can be dedicated to this species, we feel this study provides useful, actionable management recommendations with can help increase the Puaiohi population.
Management recommendations
It seems clear that rat control within prime Puaiohi nesting habitat is critical for the species' long-term survival. Previous research [14] demonstrated that intensive rat removal had significant positive impact on Puaiohi recruitment. Even at levels of impact below what Snetsinger achieved, rat control appears to be quite effective at increasing Puaiohi numbers (Fig 1). This has been shown to be true for the O'ahu 'Elepaio, [32, 33, 34]. Though rat control poses costs, technology exists to implement an effective rat control program. This effort might also act as an umbrella technique, whereby it would benefit not only the Puaiohi, but the other few remaining endemic birds of the Alaka'i.
Providing predator-proof nest boxes also has potential to positively affect Puaiohi. This technique would not only increase female survival and reproductive output, but also increase the number of available nesting sites, a potential limiting factor for the species at present. Researchers have experimented with different nest box designs [61], but have yet to find a design readily accepted by Puaiohi. Research into effective nest box designs continues, however, providing some hope of an additional effective management option soon.
Other management activities exist that could increase Puaiohi populations and growth rates. Supplemental feeding, akin to the papaya and scramble eggs provided to recently released captive birds, may help increase carrying capacity and reproductive output [62, 63, 64, 65], though this is likely similar in its labor intensiveness to rat removal, with smaller pay offs. Removal of invasive plants to promote the return of native vegetation, and thereby, native food sources also has some potential for positive growth rates and number increases. In addition, this action would benefit many native plant species, as well as other endemic birds. Finally, steps can be taken to improve overall Puaiohi survival. One of the most likely means to do so would be the management of malaria. While Puaiohi do not seem to as susceptible to malaria as some Hawaiian endemic birds, evidence of the disease has been found in the species [31, 38, 39] and it likely does have an impact on overall species survival. Though more research is necessary to fully understand the impact of malaria on Puaiohi, removal of pigs may decrease to prevalence of suitable mosquito habitat, and thereby malaria, would likely be of some aid to sustaining populations. Pig removal would also limit the damage to native plants and the weed spread, thereby increasing habitat quality. It is also possible that factors outside those we have modeled may have an impact on Puaiohi. Future research should, in particular, investigate potential impacts of cats, owls and avian competitors. Because many of the issues facing Puaiohi are the same as those faced by the other Hawaiian forest birds, this, and all of the recommended management activities could have a substantial and valuable positive impact on the other few remaining endemic birds of the Alaka'i.
Data used in this study were collected by the Kauaʻi Forest Birds Recovery Project (KFBRP), a cooperative project of the Pacific Cooperative Studies Unit of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and the State of Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Forestry and Wildlife. We thank the staff members and field technicians of KFBRP for their efforts which provided the basis for this paper and Bob Lacy for questions pertaining to Vortex. In addition we would like to thank Russell Benford and three anonymous reviewers for comments on the draft manuscript. Project support was provided by the Watson T. Yoshimoto Fellowship of the Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology program of the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa.
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After meeting each other by being paired up on Marvel Comics' Uncanny X-Men, writer Matt Fraction and husband-and-wife artist duo Terry and Rachel Dodson wanted to work together again - but on their own thing. And for Matt's case, he wanted to do it for his daughter.
So here comes a '40s style pulp serial.
Wait, what...? Nah, they make it work.
First announced in 2015 recently debuting on comic shelves, Adventureman tells the story of the fabled, now forgotten, Adventureman pulp serials and how they have bled into the lives of a single mother and her excitable son, opening up a world beyond their world and adventures beyond their belief.
With #1 out now and #2 expected for July 8, Newsarama spoke with Terry Dodson about their new book, the process from conceptualization to release, his own visual inspirations, and what this particular title means to him and his "comics family".
Newsarama: Terry, what was the first spark of Adventureman? Was it a matter of wanting to do more straight-forward pulp adventures or was there a more abstract idea at the center at the start?
Terry Dodson: We wanted to create a high adventure comic with all the best parts of the world of pulp heroes but with a modern twist, that you can only get 80 years later! This was the broad feel that Matt brought to me as a proposal in 2010 after I told him how much I liked drawing New York in the pages of the Uncanny X-Men.
Nrama: What was the development process like from there?
Dodson: For me it was taking all the things that I like, and merging with Matt's initial concept - keep the basic story but created a fully realized world to set it in. Matt has a basic plot and list of characters/concepts with brilliant names and I began breathing life into those and there are so many "concepts" I want to explore that I pick and choose where to add those.
Nrama: How has the story or designs evolved since the first announcement in 2015 until now?
Dodson: I know for a fact that the plot is the same - we have stuck to it. However, how much we added to the story, characters, and world has expanded exponentially every issue.
The way we work is Matt sends me a few pages of plot, with some surprising new elements, then I "storytell" those pages and new elements and ideas emerge. From that, Matt writes the next section, and the evolution continues!
And to give you an idea of how this works out practically - Matt's initial plot for #1 was 21 pages and I drew 32 and we ended up with a 56-page story to wrap it up properly!
And one more important thing, Matt wanted to write a book for his daughter, and nothing he writes are books she can read. This was always a book for her!
One concrete thing I know we added was the diversity of the cast of the two worlds of characters. They were described with a name and a general idea of "ability" but besides that their looks were up to me, and I wanted a real diverse group to draw as there were seven sisters in the modern story for instance. So the idea of a multiracial cast was very appealing for me as a reader, and obviously, as an artist — such a broad range of things to draw on every page - hard to get bored with all that diversity!
With the pulp cast, I really wanted to avoid the stereotypes of the pulp heroes of that era and care about Aaron (read: Adventureman) so we started off with a type of character and then we tried to turn it on its head. And you will see as the story develops how far that has gone.
And believe me, this is a creator-owned book. I have a lot of ideas and more every day (and Matt Fraction is a GENIUS). So, every page if something pops into my head that is an improvement on something that has happened before I adapt and change and make it better! We are continuing to have ideas that pop up and Matt and I will insert into the story. It's such a pleasure to see how much this world of this comic has grown in this time.
Nrama: Since this title is pretty obviously you riffing on "high adventure pulps", do you or Fraction have a wish list of visual hallmarks or set pieces you want to get to eventually? Can we expect a big biplane battle or supervillain submarines somewhere down the line?
Dodson: We set the bar pretty high for the first issue, but it just gets better and better as the WORLD really is our oyster. This is a story based in NYC, but we can tell the adventure stories ANYWHERE (ANYTIME ANYPLACE) and that is exciting!
Nrama: I'd like to talk a little about the way you visually render sound in the opening. How in the world did you layer all of those sound effects into the panels? Was this focus on the dynamic set dressing always a part of your visual idea for the series?
Dodson: I love doing the sound effects lettering myself. I always have, initially, I simply enjoyed it as an artistic challenge. But then I realized how important it was to the actual storytelling: they are the shape of the story and the letters/FX had to look clear to the reader as to where the letters and sounds are placed.
Nrama: In the first issue, it was established that Claire, one of the lead characters, was hearing-impaired.
Dodson: Matt had the great idea how to work this out and fix into Claire's hearing and now I'm hearing it! And then I had to figure out how to make that look on the page so I'm happy to hear it reads well and it's something that you can always keep playing with, improving on it.
Nrama: You mention that Fraction explicitly wanted this to be a book for his daughter, did that color the way you approached certain pages or set pieces? I mean, you aren't exactly known for visceral action, but there was an element of knowing the audience you were playing for when you started to draft?
Dodson: Yes, it gave me a good set of guidelines to make this an all-ages book. Which, any more, is pretty broad, meaning a book that could be published by Marvel or DC so I wouldn't say this is in any way like a children's book — I think it's a book that I could've read when I was growing up myself.
Really, I drew this book for myself — I was the main audience — and in general, draw things that are for all ages - as it's an adventure book and a book about family.
Nrama: What are some visual inspirations you personally are pulling from with this series? I imagine there is a big stack of pulps just sitting around your office somewhere, right?
Dodson: Actually, I put aside all the traditional kinds of stuff from that era and instead grabbed images of New York from that time. Especially art deco-related things, plus all the fashion and hairstyles and you're looking at the old movies etc.
Actually, the Rocketeer movie had some great clothes and sets as well. It's nice to see the period being lived and moving around in a real space.
But probably the biggest inspirational source after that would be all the artist's work at the time. Leyendecker, Cornwell, Rockwell, Lovell — illustrators of that era and I tried to look at the colors and how they perceive people. But I find when doing research for something it's best to pull from real life and then adapt amazing things that you can see. The real-world authority being designs that you can learn from.
Nrama: You said "anytime" earlier, can you give us a few hints as to the scope of the time periods we might be seeing?
Dodson: Well, we have the opportunity that the book starts off in the early '40s and then reappears today so it already gives us 80 years to play around with plus the fact that it's about a pulp-era hero and that milieu, and those characters histories go back even farther and of course, there's always the future!
Nrama: The whole ethos of Adventureman and the O'Connell family, especially in issue #1, seems very inspired by Lester Dent's Doc and Patricia Savage. Was this a conscious choice or just a happy pulpy accident?
Dodson: Matt's inspiration for the book was Doc Savage, His Apocalyptic Life by Philip Jose Farmer - a kind of encyclopedia of Doc Savage. This gave Matt his start and we went from there.
Nrama: Finally, in the wake of #1 being out in the wilds a bit now, what is something you hope readers take away from it?
Dodson: I really hope that readers take away that they are reading a story about interesting characters apart from all the explosions, dieselpunk, and BUGS! - that at the end of the day it's the characters that make the story important and how those characters away to another that's what we start time on.


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Latest Nutrition, Food & Recipes News
A new approach to malnutrition in the developing world could change the way we think about vitamin and mineral supplements. By changing the coating of vital micronutrients, scientists and philanthropists hope to stop the preventable devastation of blindness, birth defects, and more.
Health experts from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have teamed up with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to find ways to repackage supplements to make them more stable and useful in the developing world. After considering more than 50 kinds of polymer coatings, researchers settled on BMC, a previously FDA-approved food additive already widespread in American foods.
Scientists did this to combat the instability of current supplements, which use additives like proteins and sugars to encapsulate the micronutrients they carry. Additives like this don't hold up in boiling water, the journal Science reports.
The BMC polymer has been tested on a variety of nutrients, including zinc, iron, and vitamins A and D. Lab testing, including mice trials, showed these substances could withstand boiling for two hours straight before breaking down on contact with stomach acids.
These trials were followed by human trials of BMC-coated micronutrients. The first trial went poorly, with tests showing that people who ate the polymer-fortified maize porridge absorbed less than half the iron sulfate as others who ate from foods supplemented with unencapsulated nutrients. After retooling the polymer formula, the next test showed nearly identical nutrient absorption between people eating both encapsulated and unencapsulated iron.
The first large-scale use of this new technology may take the form of soup. Researchers are currently engaged in talks with food companies to possibly produce fortified bouillon cubes and similar offerings.
While most people in developed nations have no significant nutrition deficiencies, malnutrition remains a serious problem in less developed parts of the world. This is the cause of death for an estimated 45% of children under age 5 worldwide, according to the World Health Organization.
Malnutrition has several potential signs and symptoms, according to MedicineNet medical author and editor Melissa Conrad Stöppler, MD.
"In cases of undernutrition, children may show slow growth, failure to thrive, developmental delays, behavioral changes (including decreased attention), and muscle wasting," Dr. Stöppler said. "Tiredness, fatigue, slow wound healing, and even loss of appetite may occur."
People with low incomes or poor access to food may be hit harder than others by malnutrition, Dr. Stöppler said. Other malnutrition symptoms and signs include:
- Attention Deficit
- Brittle Hair
- Decreased Appetite
- Developmental Delay
- Distended Abdomen
- Dry Skin
- Failure to Thrive
- Fatigue
- Frequent Illness
- Headache
- Irritability
- Loss of Appetite
- Muscle Wasting or Loss
- Nail Fissures
- Obesity
- Overweight
- Peeling Skin
- Poor Concentration
- Poor or Slow Wound Healing
- Reduced Immune Function
- Ridged Nails
- Short Stature
- Swollen Extremities
- Thin Hair
- Tiredness
- Underweight


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Numerous patient-side tests are available to aid in the detection and diagnosis of various parasites and tick-borne pathogens.
Numerous patient-side tests are available to aid in the detection and diagnosis of various parasites and tick-borne pathogens. These immunoassays are based on the detection of either antigen or antibody in the blood or feces of the patient. There are 3 types of immunoassays in use: (1) ELISA; (2) Immunochromatographic; and (3) Agglutination. For parasites, the first two comprise the bulk of the tests currently available.
ELISA stands for Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay. ELISAs can take many forms, but, the simplest consists of a solid phase or test surface, sample, conjugate, wash solution and substrate (chromagen). The conjugate is usually an antibody that has been bound or conjugated to an enzyme. The substrate is a reagent that changes color when exposed to the enzyme. For commercial kits, except for the test sample, all or most of the components, are generally supplied in the kit. In the kit will be a test device. Highly specific antibodies or antigens have already been coated onto (solid phase) or embedded into (test surface) the device. The patient's sample is placed on the solid phase of the assay or mixed with the conjugate and then placed in the assay. For heartworm tests and Giardia coproantigen test, the ELISA is detecting antigens in the sample. If the sample contains the antigens, they bind to the antibodies that are immobilized in the device. The conjugate also binds the antigens present resulting in a sandwich with the antigen sandwiched between the immobilized antibody and the conjugate. Unbound material is washed away and conjugate then interacts with the substrate. The resulting enzymatic reaction provides a visible color change. If the antigen is not present in the patient's sample, then the sandwich does not form, the conjugate is washed away and the substrate has nothing to interact with. Therefore, there is no color change. For antibody tests, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Ehrlichia canis, the process is the same except that antibodies are detected rather than antigens.
Immunochromatographic assays can also be used to detect antigen or antibody in the test sample. The method is based on the same principles as the ELISA; however, latex or gold particles replace the enzyme and substrate and there is no wash step. The method uses a solid phase, the test sample, and colloidal gold or latex conjugate with or without flow solution. As with the heartworm ELISA, highly specific antibodies are coated onto the patient line and heartworm antigen is coated onto the positive control line. An absorptive pad contains antigen-specific antibodies conjugated to the gold or latex particles. The sample is placed on an absorptive pad and, if necessary, flow solution is added. If antigen is present, the gold or latex conjugate attaches to it and flows down the test strip. The antibody that is immobilized at the patient line then attaches to the antigen/gold or antigen/latex complex and color is produced. If no antigen is present, these complexes do not form and the gold/latex conjugated antibody flows past the patient line and no color is formed. There is an excess of gold/latex conjugate present so that, regardless of whether antigen is present in the test sample or not, there is sufficient conjugate present to react with the positive control line. As the gold/latex conjugate flows past the control line, it combines with the antigen that is immobilized there and color is produced.
Although the sensitivity and specificity of these tests has greatly improved over the years, they are not 100%. Therefore, false positives and false negatives can occur. Some reasons for false positive results include improper sample quality, inadequate washing (ELISAs), over-incubation, and defective test. All test kits come with quite specific instructions as to the timing of the test and when to read the results. Prolonged incubation can result in non-specific binding of test components resulting in the appearance of a positive result. Proper washing is also quite important. Removal of all unbound conjugate is necessary to, again, prevent non-specific binding and the appearance of a positive result. Some reasons for false negatives include inadequate sample volume, improper storage of sample, wrong sample type, insufficient incubation time, and expired or improperly stored test kit. Acute infections may also return negative results as there has been insufficient time for the production of a detectable antibody response. For heartworm antigen tests, all male infections or only 1 or 2 females present may also produce false negative results.
Interpretation of test results requires the "big picture" approach. These tests are not the definitive diagnostic tests(s) for determining whether or not a pet has the disease and must be interpreted in light of all available patient information. For the antibody tests, a positive result means the pet has been exposed but does not necessarily mean the pet has an active infection. Positive results in the absence of clinical disease generally require further confirmatory testing. If confirmed, treatment may or may not be required, depending on which organism is present. Positive results for any of the tick-borne diseases does clearly indicate poor tick control. Furthermore, positive results indicate humans are at risk of infection as well. While people do not get the organisms from the dog, they are exposed to the same ticks as they hike, walk, and, otherwise, play with their canine companion in the tick-friendly environment. Consequently, humans run the same risk of infection.
References available upon request