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|Log Home Repair
|Log Home Chinking And Caulking
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LogDoctor's mission is to offer you high quality log cabin repair service using superior log home products --all at competitive prices!
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Product added to cart
Framed England World Cup Winners 1966 Poster - Signed by Geoff Hurst & Martin Peters
In stock
Product code
Great large print featuring Alf Ramsey and all 11 players who guided England to victory over West Germany in the 1966 World Cup final. The print is issued in a stylish cigarette card presentation and gives details of all England's games during the tournament. Hand signed by goalscorers Sir Geoff Hurst & Martin Peters. Presented in our standard photo framing which is great value for money and available for fast dispatch - perfect for gifts, events and memorabilia collectors.
Approximate size:22 x 32 inches
Categories:Football, England, Football Legends, 1966 England Team, Martin Peters, Sir Geoff Hurst, Framed Items, Framed Signed Photos, All Products, Gifts Under £100
Dispatch time:Fast dispatch in 3-4 working days sent via DHL Express
Hologram Certificate of Authenticity
Over 15 years verifiable history
100% authentic hand signed
Have a question? Call us 01202 406777
Product Video
Certificate of Authenticity
Every signed product is issued with a Certificate of Authenticity verified by our Managing Director, which guarantees that every item has been hand-signed. The certificate includes many security features to avoid duplication and protect your investment.
Security Features
1. Quality of printing & paper
The printed lines and colours of the many intricate patterns on our Certificate of Authenticity are sharp, clear and free of smudges or blurred edges. The paper is high quality, textured and of a heavier weight than normal paper.
2. Integrated image
Each Certificate of Authenticity also includes either an example image of the product or a small photo of the individual signing the product.
*Images are for illustration purposes only and the product/signature location & size my differ slightly.
3. Hologram seal
A security bespoke A1 Sporting Memorabilia hologram seal that shimmers and animates when tilted is included on every Certificate of Authenticity.
4. Online verification
The name and authentication code of every item is printed onto every Certificate of Authenticity. By entering the authentication code into the A1 Sporting Memorabilia website you will be able to view more detailed images of the signed item, a detailed description and if available photos of the individual signing the item.
5. Verified by our CEO
Every single Certificate of Authenticity is also verified by our chief executive officer - to guarantee that the item is genuine and hand signed.
About A1 Sporting Memorabilia
At A1 Sporting Memorabilia, we not only have the highest standards of authenticity in the industry but we also combine this with unique products and have completed private autograph signing sessions with the biggest names in sport – including Pele, Maradona, Lionel Messi, Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, Sir Geoff Hurst, Sir Bobby Charlton, Anthony Joshua, Frank Bruno & more!
Founded in 1995, A1 Sporting Memorabilia was previously owned by Terry and Freda Baker and is now owned by Icons Shop Limited.
Standard UK Delivery - £5.99 (small items)
Orders sent via our standard delivery service are sent via Royal Mail 1st Class Recorded Delivery. We aim to dispatch all UK orders within 1-2 working days.
We require a signature for all packages that we send out. If you are not at home in the day, we recommend getting your order delivered to a work address. If you are not in when a delivery is attempted, the parcel will be taken to your nearest postal sorting depot. A card will be left with instructions on how to retrieve it.
Standard UK Delivery - £16.99 (large items)
Some of our larger items are dispatched using a courier service due to their size, weight and value. All items sent via courier will require a signature and cannot be left in a safe place or with neighbours.
Additional delivery charges may apply for an address in the Scottish Highlands, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
International Delivery
All international items are dispatched using either a international courier or Royal Mail International Signed For. You will usually receive your item within 10 working days. Shipping fees are calculated at the checkout dependant on size, weight and destination.
We are not responsible for any customs duties, taxes or levies on international orders. We recommend that you check with your local customs officials or post office for further information.
Great large print featuring Alf Ramsey and all 11 players who guided England to victory over West Germany in the 1966 World Cup final. The print is issued in a stylish cigarette card presentation and gives details of all England's games during the tournament. Hand signed by goalscorers Sir Geoff Hurst & Martin Peters. Presented in our standard photo framing which is great value for money and available for fast dispatch - perfect for gifts, events and memorabilia collectors.
|Product type
|Signed photos
|Signed by
|Geoff Hurst, Martin Peters
|A1 Sporting Speakers
|Approximate size
|22 x 32 inches
|Bin Number
|TB Bin
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- 24/7 Tech Support
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Privacy Policy
Last updated: September 2017
Cleverbridge GmbH and Cleverbridge, Inc. ("Cleverbridge") take the privacy and protection of personal information ("Personal Information") very seriously. By visiting the Cleverbridge online store ("Store"), Cleverbridge website ("Site") and/or ordering products and services (collectively, "Products") from Cleverbridge, you acknowledge that you accept the practices and policies outlined in this Privacy Policy ("Privacy Policy"). Unless otherwise defined herein, capitalized terms shall have the meanings assigned to such terms set forth in the General Terms and Conditions and which incorporate this Privacy Policy by reference.
If you have an unresolved privacy or data use concern that we have not addressed satisfactorily, please contact our U.S.-based third party dispute resolution provider (free of charge) at https://feedback-form.truste.com/watchdog/request.
Jump to section
What This Privacy Policy Covers
This Privacy Policy describes Cleverbridge's use of Personal Information and Analytical Information that we collect when you visit the Site, the Store and/or order a Product. This Privacy Policy does not apply to the use of your Personal Information that is collected by third parties that Cleverbridge does not own or control or that do not support Cleverbridge in providing the Site, Store or Products.
Controller of Personal Information
Any Personal Information provided or gathered by visiting the Site, the Store and/or ordering Products from Cleverbridge is controlled by Cleverbridge GmbH at Gereonstr. 43-65, 50670 Cologne, Germany ("Data Controller"). Cleverbridge, Inc. (350 N Clark, Suite 700, Chicago, Illinois, 60654, USA) acts as data processor on behalf of the Data Controller.
Cleverbridge has developed global data practices to assure your Personal Information is appropriately protected. Please note that Personal Information may be transferred, accessed and stored globally as necessary for the uses and disclosure stated in this policy. Cleverbridge affiliates have entered into and executed agreements for the international transfer of Personal Information which allows for the processing of your data and which correspond to the European Union Model Clauses for transfer of Personal Information to third countries.
Types and Use of Information We Collect
In general, Personal Information you submit to us is used by us either for the purpose of registration (if any), to provide you with the Products that you order, process payments, respond to requests that you make, to better tailor the features, performance and support of the Site or Store, and to offer you additional information, opportunities, and functionality. We also use this information to prevent or detect fraud or abuses of our Site and/or Store and enable third parties to carry out technical, logistical or other functions on our behalf. We may create Analytical Information records from Personal Information by excluding information that makes the information personally identifiable to you as a person. The use of information collected through our service shall be limited to the purpose of providing the service for which the Provider of the Product has engaged Cleverbridge.
Here are the types of information we collect as well as their designated use.
Personal Information
"Personal Information" is information that is personally identifiable like names, addresses, email addresses, or phone numbers, as well as other non-public information that is associated with the foregoing.
We collect the following Personal Information that you submit to us voluntarily:
- Upon accessing our Site and/or Store, certain additional information is automatically collected and then saved in protocol files (so-called usage data). This information includes, among other things, your Internet Protocol (IP) address. We may use this information for internal purposes, such as determining certain settings for the Store, such as language and location, maintaining our operating ability, preventing fraudulent access to our Site and/or Store or analyzing usage patterns. For more information visit the "Automatic Data Collection and Analytical Information" section.
- In order to purchase Products through the Store, you have to provide (and we will collect) your name, address, email address, and all the financial information necessary for billing (or a subset of the forgoing).
The information required for billing depends on the selected payment method and may thereby include the credit card number, card verification code, account number, billing zip code or any other information required in connection with the payment methods that you have selected.
We collect your zip code for the purpose of examination of fraudulent actions, calculation of tax, transaction processing and support. We do not transfer your zip code for advertising purposes or purposes external to the transaction to providers of the Products offered through our Store, third party providers or suppliers. We also do not sell your zip code in connection with other information, do not connect it with data sets external to the transaction and do not use it ourselves for advertising purposes.
- On certain Sites, we give users the option of providing us with account registration information. This information may include, among other things, name, address, email address and password.
- If you fill out any of the contact forms of the Site or the Store, we collect your name, company, country, email address, the description of your support request and any other information you choose to provide.
- When you contact us by email or telephone or if you are using any of the email addresses or telephone numbers provided on the Site or the Store, we collect any Personal Information you may provide to us voluntarily in connection with this communication.
- If you provide feedback to us, we may use and disclose such feedback for any purpose provided we do not associate such feedback with your Personal Information. We will collect any information contained in such feedback and will treat the Personal Information in it in accordance with this Privacy Policy.
- We will send you strictly service-related announcements (such as, but not limited to, notices related to your purchase of Products, any updates to our General Terms and Conditions, or Privacy Policy) when we believe it is necessary to do so. You may not opt-out of these communications, which are not promotional in nature.
- Within the scope of Cleverbridge's personalized services, your data will, subject to your consent, be used for advertising, market research and tailoring electronic services. Unsubscribe instructions will accompany each newsletter or promotional communication you receive from us. In addition you can withdraw your consent at any time in the future. For more information see: Review and Correction of Personal Information.
Automatic Data Collection and Analytical Information
We receive and store certain types of information whenever you interact with us. This automatic exchange of data between your browser and our server upon accessing our pages informs us of which browser you are using, the date and time of your visit, the name of your Internet Service Provider (ISP), the web site you are using to visit us and which of our web sites you are visiting.
The information we collect automatically is called "Analytical Information". Analytical Information means information that is not associated with or linked to your Personal Information. Thus Analytical Information does not permit the identification of individual persons.
We may use this Analytical Information for internal purposes, such as maintaining our operating ability, preventing fraudulent access to our Site and/or Store or analyzing usage patterns so that we may enhance our Site. We also reserve the right to use and disclose any Analytical Information at our discretion, although you will not be identified as an individual person.
We automatically collect Information through different technologies as described below.
Cookies and Other Tracking Technologies
Cleverbridge and its partners use cookies or similar technologies to analyze trends, administer the website, track users' movements around the website and to gather demographic information about our user base as a whole. You can control the use of cookies at the individual browser level, but if you choose to disable cookies, it may limit your use of certain features or functions on our website or service.
We use Cookies for our shopping cart, and to enable our system to recognize your browser and your personal preferences or login information (if any). However, using Cleverbridge systems does not require that Cookies be accepted. Most browsers accept Cookies automatically. You can control the use of Cookies at the individual browser level. Refer to your browser's manual for more information on how this can be done individually. In addition, you can delete Cookies that have already been saved on your computer at any time. While you will still be able to use the Store and order Products if you disable Cookies in your browser, certain parts of the Store may not function as effectively or it may even lead to limitations in the functionality of our services.
We partner with third parties to either display advertising on the Store or to manage advertising on other sites. These third parties may use technologies such as Cookies to gather information about your activities on the Store and other sites in order to provide you advertising based upon your browsing activities and interests. If you wish to not have this information used for the purpose of serving you interest-based ads, you may opt-out by clicking here (or if located in the European Union click here). Please note this does not opt you out of being served ads. You will continue to receive generic ads.
Google Analytics
Our web site may use Google Analytics, a web analytics service provided by Google Inc. ("Google"). Google uses Cookies to help analyze the use of the web site. The information generated by the Cookie about your use of the Site is sent to a Google server in the United States and stored there. Please note, that your IP address will be truncated by our systems before sending the data to a Google server. Thereby you will not be identified as an individual person in Google Analytics, but only as part of the user base.
Google will use this information to evaluate your use of the Site, compile reports on Site activity, and provide other Site activity and internet related services. In addition, Google may also transfer this information to third parties if required by law or if third parties process the information on Google's behalf.
By using this Site, you consent to the processing of data about you by Google in the manner described and for the aforementioned purpose. More information about Google Analytics can be found here.
As Google uses Cookies you can reset your browser to refuse all cookies or to indicate when a cookie is being sent as described in the Cookies section of this Privacy Policy.
Do Not Track Signals
Some Internet browsers include the ability to transmit "Do Not Track" (DNT) signals. At this time, however, the definitions and meanings of DNT signals and responses, and the correct behavior regarding DNT signals, are not defined. Until such time as the standard is finalized, this Site does not process or respond to DNT signals. To learn more about DNT, please visit donottrack.us
Personal Information from Other Sources
We may receive Personal Information about you from other sources like telephone or fax, or from third parties that provide services for us in connection with the Site and/or Store. We may add this information to the data we have already collected from you via the Site and/or Store.
Disclosure of Personal Information
Except as otherwise stated in this Privacy Policy, we do not use or share your Personal Information with Third Parties, unless you ask or authorize us to do so. We will not sell or rent any of your Personal Information to Third Parties for their marketing purposes and only share your personal information with third parties as described below.
Provider of the Products from a Store
We will provide Personal Information to the Providers of the Products offered through the Store to enable them to provide you with the Products, to register you as authorized users, to provide you with support and updates, and for similar purposes. Please note that Providers use your Personal Information according to their own Privacy Policy that may differ from this Privacy Policy. If you want to know how Providers collect, use, and disclose Personal Information, please visit their website and review their Privacy Policy.
We collect information for the Provider of the Product. If you are a customer of the Provider of the Product and would no longer like to be contacted, please contact the Provider of the Product that you interact with directly. If you are a customer and would like to update your account (if any) or transaction data please contact us via our Help Center and we will respond in a reasonable timeframe.
Third Party Service Providers and Suppliers
We may provide your Personal Information to third party service providers and suppliers who work on behalf of or with us to provide you with the Site, Store and Products, related customer support, and to help us communicate with customers and to operate the Site and Store. Examples of such services include communicating with you via email, processing payment transactions, shipping Products, screening Orders for fraudulent activities, remain compliant with applicable laws, and/or providing customer service or fulfillment services for us. However, these service providers and suppliers do not have any independent right to use your information except as to help us providing the Site, Store, its related processes and the Products. Transfers to subsequent third parties are covered by the provisions in this Privacy Policy regarding notice and choice and the agreements with our third party service providers and the Provider of the Product.
In order to avoid defaults on payment, we reserve the right to obtain information on your creditworthiness from third parties for certain payment methods (direct debit, purchase order), e.g. based on mathematic-statistical processes. In this event, you will be explicitly informed during the ordering process.
In case of non-redemption of a direct debit transaction that is not caused by a revocation through the account holder, we reserve the right to report your account information (account number, bank routing number) to a third party that saves these facts in a lock file and send them to other companies that are affiliated with the direct debit procedure. The blocking shall be deleted after the amount invoiced has been settled.
Law Enforcement, Governmental Authorities and Agencies
We may disclose information we have collected from and about you (including Personal Information) if we believe in good faith that such disclosure is necessary to
- comply with relevant laws or to respond to subpoenas or warrants served on us;
- to enforce our General Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy;
- to protect and defend the rights or property of us, the visitors of the Store and Site and our customers, or third parties; or
- meet lawful requests by public authorities to disclose personal data in certain situations, including to meet national security or law enforcement requirements.
For tax-exempted orders originating in certain EU countries, your address information may be passed on to the responsible tax authorities in order to establish that your VAT identification number (VAT-ID) is correct.
Business Transition
In the event Cleverbridge goes through a business transition such as a merger, acquisition by another company, or sale of all or a portion of its assets, your Personal Information will likely be among the assets transferred. You acknowledge that such transfers may occur, and that any acquirer of Cleverbridge or its assets may continue to use your Personal Information as set forth in this Privacy Policy. You hereby consent to Cleverbridge sharing your Personal Information under the above circumstances.
Export and Processing of Personal Information in Countries Outside of the European Economic Community
We hereby state that, for the purposes of processing your order, your data may be transferred to our subsidiary based in the United States and/or to product providers through us and who are based outside the European Economic community in countries that, to date, generally do not have a data privacy level that is recognized as being congruent to the European Union.
Please note, that Cleverbridge affiliates have entered into and executed agreements for the international transfer of Personal Information which allows for the processing of your data and which correspond to the European Union Model Clauses for transfer of Personal Information to third countries.
Data Security and Confidentiality
In order to maintain the highest level of customer and client protection, we adhere to the applicable industry rules and regulations. Thus, we maintain commercially reasonable and appropriate physical, electronic, and managerial measures and procedures to safeguard and secure your Personal Information during data collection, transmission and storage. Your data are only accessible by authorized persons who are familiar with Cleverbridge's data privacy policies. However, no company, including Cleverbridge, can fully eliminate security risks associated with Personal Information.
Transport Layer Security (TLS)
All access to the Store's ordering pages at Cleverbridge is granted using Transport Layer Security (TLS) technology, which encrypts Personal Information you provide during the ordering process. Thereby confidential data is protected against being intercepted by third parties and your Personal Information is transferred through this secure channel. To ensure this level of security, our systems use a certificate in keeping with common practice in ecommerce. This certificate is issued by a trusted security provider. All standard web browsers support this technology and accept the certificates from trusted providers automatically. No method of transmission over the Internet, or method of electronic storage, is 100% secure, however. Therefore, we cannot guarantee its absolute security. If you have any questions about security, you can contact us via our Help Center.
Credit Card Data
Cleverbridge maintains full compliance with PCI DSS (Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard) to enhance payment card data security and provide a secure ecommerce environment for our customers. The PCI DSS standard lays out requirements for network architecture, software development, security management and other critical proactive measures to ensure the safety of payment card transactions. Each year a Qualified Security Assessor thoroughly examines the processes within Cleverbridge to make sure we adhere to the strict PCI regulations.
Thus, we reveal only the last four digits of your credit card numbers when confirming an order. Of course, we transmit the entire credit card number to the appropriate payment processor during order processing. Due to the Requirements of the PCI DSS, this transfer is secured using TLS.
Review and Correction of Personal Information
An individual who wants to review, correct, block or delete their stored Personal Information, please send us a brief request in writing, either via post or email (see below). Upon request we will provide you with information about whether we hold any of your personal information. In the event that, despite our efforts to maintain data correct and up-to-date, false information has been saved, then we will change it upon your request. You will normally receive a response to your request from us within thirty (30) days.
For more information on whether we store Personal Information about you and what this data is or other data privacy topics, please contact our data privacy agent in writing:
Cleverbridge GmbH
Data Privacy Agent
Gereonstr. 43-65
50670 Cologne, Germany
Email contact via our Help Center
Data Retention
Cleverbridge will retain personal data we process on behalf of our clients for as long as needed to provide services. Cleverbridge will retain and use this Personal Information as necessary to comply with legal obligations, resolve disputes, and enforce our agreements.
Please note
Upon full consummation of your contractual relationship with Cleverbridge, your data (including Personal Information) will, upon your request, be blocked at the internal Cleverbridge systems from further processing and deleted after completion of the mandatory legal storage periods.
You understand that any deletion of your Personal Information extends only to the data related to you as a person. Cleverbridge will not have any liability whatsoever to you for any termination of your Account or related deletion of your Personal Information or data.
When we delete Personal Information that we have collected from or about you, it will be deleted from our active databases but may remain in our archives. Our archives are strictly restricted to prevent unauthorized access and processing.
Notice to California Residents
If you would like to know
- the categories of Personal Information about you that we disclosed in the prior calendar year to Providers for the purposes of the Provider's marketing and/or
- the names and addresses of such Providers, please contact us. In order to do so, please send us a brief request via our Help Center.
Please note that we are required to respond to one request per California resident each year, and we are not required to respond to requests made by means other than through email.
Links to Other Web Sites
The Site may contain links to other web sites that are not owned or controlled by Cleverbridge. The provision of such links is for your convenience and does not signify our endorsement of such web sites or location or its contents. We have no control over, do not review and are not responsible for the privacy policies of or content displayed on such other web sites. Please be aware that the terms of our Privacy Policy do not apply to any outside web sites.
Privacy of Minors
In principle, persons under the age of eighteen (18) should not transfer any Personal Information to us. We will neither intentionally ask for Personal Information of minors, nor collect or transfer them.
Notice to residents of the United States: We do not intentionally collect or maintain information from those visitors of the Site who are under thirteen (13) years old.
Changes in this Privacy Statement and Previous Versions
This Privacy Statement is a living document. As part of the General Terms and Conditions, this Privacy Policy is subject to occasional amendment, in accordance with the General Terms and Conditions. In addition we may update this Privacy Policy to reflect changes to our information practices. If we make any material changes we will notify you by means of a notice on this Site prior to the change becoming effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.


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This blog discusses current weather, weather prediction, climate issues, and current events
January 16, 2012
Major Snow Event
I have just taken a look at the latest (18 UTC) NCEP (NWS) model runs, the U.S. and ECMWF ensembles, and the runs from major modeling centers (UKMET, CMC, etc). The trend is much more threatening for Wednesday and it appears that we will have a major, highly disruptive snow event.
The big question for days...the question on which the forecast depended on...was where the trough/low pressure would go. Head north of us, we get perhaps 4-8 inches of snow, followed by a few hours of rain and then the whole thing starts melting. The snow would start around 3-4 AM on Wednesday AM. This is the best case (if you don't like a crippling snow event)
But some models...some very good models...were taking the low farther south, which would extend the period of snow or prevent a turn over to rain altogether. The Canadian GEM and UKMET office were going this way. Then then NWS NAM for the 12 UTC (4 AM) run. In the 18 UTC run both the NAM and the NWS GFS (normally the best NWS model around her) is taking a more southern route. And the 15 UTC NWS SREF ensembleis doing the same thing (at least the ensemble mean). Ok, this is getting a bit techy..sorry.
The bottom line is that there is a serious threat on Wednesday of 8-15 inches of snow over the region, with a minimal turn over to rain. The biggest snowstorm in years. Anyway, before anyone goes out and buys a snowblower, lets see what tonight's runs show. If they continue this trend then Slushmageddon might be replaced by Snowmageddon. In almost any conceivable case, Wednesday morning is going to be very problematic for travel...I suspect there will be a lot of school cancellations and the like.
The main roads around Seattle are in very good shape now, but the Wednesday event could dwarf the weekend snow.
More tonight.
More excitement: My lost dog Leah was just spotted near 64th Ave W & 222nd St SW in Mountlake Terrace.
87 comments:
this is making me feel sick.ReplyDelete
woo hoo!!!!!!!! Bring it on!!!ReplyDelete
Yep, I've been seeing some of the same thing, keeping copious amounts of moisture rolling in, but also sucking down major cold air into a major snowstorm going most of Wednesday, and that's after a few more likely inches between now and Tuesday. NOAA and local forecaster looks like they're starting to push back the "change to rain" timing. NOAA is going with Wednesday night, meaning Wednesday is a loss for getting around.ReplyDelete
What do you think accumulations in the North Sound will be like because I have heard that if it stays all snow the North Sound would not get as much precipitation?ReplyDelete
I just looked at the animated satellite view...wow, scary,..keep us posted.ReplyDelete
How exciting for you guys! Is there anything you could tell us for the Portland/Vancouver area?ReplyDelete
We did get about an hour of wind-driven big flakes this afternoon but now it is raining.
Thanks for this update... sounds like my husband's Thursday morning heart surgery at UW *will* be cancelled. So frustrating!ReplyDelete
Cliff ~ All the other news stations & blogs keep saying the "greater Seattle/Everett/Tacoma area" will be getting all of this snow, and some others say all of Western Washington.... I'm in Eatonville, and we usually warm up faster than anyone else, but is there heavy snow forcast for everyone, or is it going to stay in the Puget Sound area? Sorry, but it gets frustrating that the media forgets that Western Washington covers more area than just the greater Seattle area and north to Bellingham.....Thanks for your blog! I can always count on you for more precise and accurate information.....ReplyDelete
Thanks for the update, I've been waiting to read yours. (Rather then some others that I honestly believe got their degree online by mistake thinking they were just filling out a sweepstake.)ReplyDelete
I keep seeing mention of wind Wednesday too. Hope you can mention in your update this evening.ReplyDelete
You have a great blog here Cliff! I just moved from washington DC and was obsessed with the Capitol Weather gang blog that they have out there. I bet they are jealous of this potential "Big One" coming cant wait for more updates!ReplyDelete
More importantly: have you found your dog yet?ReplyDelete
Any accumulation amounts between now and wed?ReplyDelete
Our kids are far too happy at this news!ReplyDelete
A good 7"+ at 1000 ft on Chuckanut Mountain this afternoon. If the models confirm, we could be nearing 2 feet, by the end of Thursday.ReplyDelete
Yep, it's good to focus on the coming snow. But folks ought to simultaneously prepare for wind, rain and The Big Melt. All this water will need to go somewhere. Remember that storm 12 or 13 years ago, that dumped a foot of snow then immediately began dumping rain? Major flooding everywhere.ReplyDelete
Sand bags are available at a number of Community Centers in Seattle. How's your sump pump working? Do you have a cracked foundation or leaky roof you need to keep an eye on? Are drains and downspouts clear? Are you prepared for power outages? Is your home unoccupied right now, and do you need to arrange for someone to check on it?
WOOT! Bring it on. 6" on the ground in Snohomish. Waiting for it to pile up.ReplyDelete
I would love to see information specific to the Tacoma area. We always get Seattle's forecast and then wonder what it means for us.ReplyDelete
Looking back at comments posted barely two days ago, seems there may be crow on the menu for those who were so quick to criticize Accuweather and their long-lead prediction of a major winter storm for Seattle in this instance:ReplyDelete
Blogger Cliff Mass Weather Blog said...
Well...Ilovewinter...that Accuweather "meteorologist" is really confused and clearly inexperienced with NW weather. In general, I would not believe an accuweather forecast...cliff
January 15, 2012 12:35 AM
Wow...MORE?? Here in West Oly at 200ft elev. we have 6-8 inches already and it has been snowing hard since 1pm. Glad I stocked up on food at the store this morning... Any more information about wind accompanying this storm would be appreciatedReplyDelete
"highly disruptive snow event" I like the sounds of that.ReplyDelete
Leah, come home!!ReplyDelete
Leah, come home!ReplyDelete
YAY LEAH!! Our family has been actively hoping for snow, mostly because we know snow brings your blog traffic and more traffic means more chances of Leah getting found.ReplyDelete
Hope ya get your dog back asap! Thanks for taking the time to update the blog and let us know your thoughts - always love getting the information as it is still developing.ReplyDelete
Bring on the snow, but more importantly I hope Cliff brings his dog home soon. The sightings are really encouraging, hope it is just a matter of time.ReplyDelete
Good luck finding your pup Cliff. I hope she's located and home before long.ReplyDelete
who cares about snow...I'm more excited about the new Leah sighting. Hoping that she is safely home soon.ReplyDelete
go get LEah! Bring her home and feed her all the hamburgers she wants!ReplyDelete
Wow, she is back on the other side of I-5... thank God for fences. Hope you have a tracking dog and a few "eyes" in the area and get her found.ReplyDelete
Go find Leah before the storm really hits!ReplyDelete
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She's moving south Cliff, closer to home. I hope you find your girl!ReplyDelete
Sure hope you nab Leah before the snow arrives.ReplyDelete
We really hope you find your dog! That is exciting and promising that she was spotted. GOOD LUCK!!!ReplyDelete
I'm still on the fence whether I believe this will be a major storm wednesday and stick with snow.ReplyDelete
With so much uncertainty between the model runs I have serious doubts.
Looking more short term, we are suppose to get 3 to 6 inches tonight (Monday Night) in my area (Spanaway). But even then the forecast for that storm seems to be uncertain as time gets closer to the event.
I've lived here long enough to know that I can't ever 100% trust the forecast for snow events, not even major ones.
Cliff, you said it yourself last week "Don't believe the hype".
I'll still believe it when I see it with my own eyes.
Oh yeah, I forgot about the wind on Wednesday.ReplyDelete
From my personal experience, when we have wind storms we usually don't have rain at the same time.
If it is indeed really windy on Wednesday that leads me to believe the rain (or snow as the case may be) will be a lot less than predicted.
i hope you find your dog!ReplyDelete
Good luck with the dog!ReplyDelete
Hoping you are reunited with Leah tonight!ReplyDelete
so glad you still have hope for your pup. my cat once went on a 6 month journey and turned back up. and thanks for the info on the weather!ReplyDelete
The world shouldn't stop because we are looking at a record snowfall on Wednesday. Everyone now (thanks to our wonderful Cliff Mass and the National Weather Service among others) has ample warning to get prepared and plan with food, provisions for warmth as needed, and even transportation.ReplyDelete
Hey folks, this is something that most of America experiences in a normal winter. Yet here (in my native Pacific NW), many think it is something that stops the world from spinning -- it doesn't.
I really hope you find your dog.ReplyDelete
I hope you find your dog... sending positive thoughts your way.ReplyDelete
Stoked! Bring on that orographic snowfall!ReplyDelete
Good luck - I hope the Leah-sighting means you are very close to finally getting her home!ReplyDelete
Do you need to have a big dog hunt? Like having lots of people showing up to look for her? A search and rescue day!ReplyDelete
Good to hear Leah is seeming to find shelter in the cold. Keep the faith!ReplyDelete
Cliff, I just watched King5's Jeff Renner and then looked at NWS 3:30 forecast discussion and it looked like Renner was living in an alternative universe as to Wednesday's forecast. I look forward to your later blog tonight to find out if he's just betting the later model runs will keep him from having to panic the citizenry . . .ReplyDelete
Who cares about the snow, I want to know if the dog sighting leads to anything positive! Cliff, I certainly hope this recent sighting means a well deserved homecoming for Leah. Especially in this cold weather. Thanks for your climate and weather updates.ReplyDelete
Who cares about the snow, I want to know if the dog sighting leads to anything positive! Cliff, I certainly hope this recent sighting means a well deserved homecoming for Leah. Especially in this cold weather. Thanks for your climate and weather updates.ReplyDelete
Thank Good your pup is still being seen. I think I speak for us all when I say we can't wait to read that you've got her bundled up in your arms!ReplyDelete
Glad your Leah has been spotted. I hope she gets back home safe and sound soon.ReplyDelete
I always visit this blog when I want the big picture on weather. Thanks Cliff! And yippee on dog sighting:) I hope she comes home soon.ReplyDelete
Love your work Cliff! Thank you for sharing your gift with us.ReplyDelete
Dr. Mass, I so hope you can find your lost pup and get her home! Thanks for the update, and I'm looking forward to reading more tonight.ReplyDelete
i hope leah makes it through the storm OK!! i'm crossing my fingers that you'll be reunited with her soon!ReplyDelete
What a bad time to have a "doughnut" on my Subaru. Outside of that....SWEEEEEEEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ReplyDelete
Hoping you can find Leah soon. My daughter and I have been checking in to see if you've found her yet. She's an 8th grader and has been emailing your latest snow forecasts to all her friends.ReplyDelete
I do hope you get your dog back soon. I'm in Sequim yet I feel your loss and pain. There was never a purer love than that between man and his dog.ReplyDelete
You have been separated too long, it is time for it
to come to a peaceful end. It will be so, I so will it.. Bill
Hi Cliff, your weather blog is an invaluable resource for someone who is new to the PNW. Most of all, I hope you get your dog back so you can snuggle up before the snow comes.ReplyDelete
Thanks for you info.. and I hope you are able to find Leah.. good luck!!ReplyDelete
I live two blocks from where Leah was last seen. As a school teacher I have the day off tomorrow so will go looking for her. Will bring treats and a leash.ReplyDelete
I am so happy to hear your dog has been spooted again. It is amazing that she has evaded capture for so long! Hope she gets back to you soon.ReplyDelete
Cliff -ReplyDelete
Thank you for taking the time to let all of us neophytes what to expect. I look at the weather forecast on my homepage... and then I generally pop right over here to get the real scoop. You'ved saved our bacon a couple of times when big storms were forecasted and we were debating the merits of braving the pass.
Thank you so much, and please keep it up!
How's is supposed to snow at 35 degrees?ReplyDelete
Hope you find your dog!!ReplyDelete
I SO hope you find your dog!! If I was in MT I'd help look.ReplyDelete
I SO hope you find your dog! If I was near MT I'd help look, sending positive thoughts!ReplyDelete
the Wednesday event could dwarf the weekend snow.ReplyDelete
It wouldn't take much for that to happen. I have not a flake on the ground here in Richmond Beach. I'm so bummed!
I know this has nothing to do with Wednesdays "event", but do you have any input on what the system moving abruptly southward, just shy of Alaska's north shore, may or may not have impact on the system lolling in the Pacific at the moment. It seems as though the jet stream has been affected greatly by the low pressure system we are currently under, but if this arctic mass continues moving as quickly as it is, the potential for another "event" seems certain. I know once it hits landmass, it should slow down, and dissipate greatly, and forecast models can only anticipate what information is relative and on hand... but the way these two systems are behaving (the pacific, and the arctic) I think we may have more than anyone bargained for... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=hrpt_canarc_ir_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1ReplyDelete
I'm so happy your dog has been seen. Hope you can find her and bring her home before the big dump!ReplyDelete
I'm polishing up my flying saucer. wooo hoo!
How did it go with Leah??? That's the crucial question.ReplyDelete
And then, will I be buried alive Wednesday morning on Vashon? That's my second question.
Cliff, I passed the info about Leah to my homeschool mailing lists and Facebook. Some of the folks on those lists probably live in the Mountlake Terrace area. I'm hoping the best for you.ReplyDelete
I'm not stressing about snow, but you can believe I've stocked up on batteries and brought in wood in case we need to use the fireplace.
Heavens, Steve, some of the heaviest snowfalls I've seen were at temps above freezing. If you take an ice cube outside, does it melt instantly? No -- and snowflakes falling from cold air into warmer air don't melt instantly either.ReplyDelete
Good news on Leah, Cliff; we're all pulling for that reunion soon.
Best of luck with finding your puppy Cliff.ReplyDelete
Huge lazy flakes coming down in s. bellingham right now. About 2-3 inches on the ground here, but eastern parts of town have at least 6 inches.
Tonight has come.ReplyDelete
Cliff this is me. First Snowflake Freakout Lady. Totally.ReplyDelete
Chiming in on the hopes that Leah will make it home to you. Perhaps the snowfall will lead her to mosey up to someone's door for a handout, or maybe leave tracks to help people find her. She has obviously got some hybrid vigor going on!!ReplyDelete
So glad you found your dog!ReplyDelete
Thanks for all of the great info!
Hoping you and the dog are reunited very, very soon!ReplyDelete
I really hope you find your dog Cliff!ReplyDelete
I'm all for a find Leah day/weekend - coordinated or adhoc. What's her favorite treat? is she super shy? what can we do if we spot her?ReplyDelete
and, i LOVE your blog. I'm always talking about you. Your balance of insight, education, humor and diversity make me come back regularly. thanks!!
Who cares about the snow, here's hoping you get your dog back!ReplyDelete
The kids and I are planning on venturing up to the intersection where Leah was last spotted tomorrow morning, bright and early. With hamburger! (and sleds) since Seattle Public Schools are planning on being 2 hours late tomorrow. Can't wait to see if my wee ones can lure her to the car. Meantimes...not seeing any new snow in Lake Ciry. Even at this late hour, all is drippy, slushy, and melting fast! No smell of ozone that precedes Seattle snow. My hunch is that mañana brings very cold rain.ReplyDelete
Hoping your dog gets home safely before the snow comes in! Thanks for actually informative weather information.ReplyDelete
We need a blog like yours for Eastern WA, especially the Yakima Valley area.ReplyDelete
First Lowland Snow over Western Washington
It is snowing right now in some favored locations in western Washington....yes, snow falling to sea level. Take a look at a video provided b...
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Friday, August 12, 2011
A Story of Bold Venture
This will be fun: a little journalism, a little baseball... Someday we'll be perfect? That day is today, my friend.
Why don't we start off by getting our biases out of the way up front?
I cash a monthly paycheck (paycheque) from ESPN for my work at Grantland. I also know Amy. I wouldn't say we're best friends, but we hung out as part of a larger group during the World Series in 2008—so much rain!—and I like her and respect her work very much. (I should also say here that I haven't spoken to her about this story, and I want to make it clear that the things I write here are my thoughts alone. In no way am I speaking on behalf of Amy or ESPN.)
I also grew up a hardcore Jays fan, commemorating their 1992 World Series win by losing my virginity that same night, an eventful evening I've documented many time before.
You, I presume, are a huge fan of the San Diego Padres. Is that correct?
You have no idea what a Padres fan I am. I still weep for the day we traded away Winfield.
Obviously, yes, I am a long-time, devoted Jays fan. So much so that I have spent countless hours over the past five seasons NOT drawing a paycheque in order to type away my almost daily thoughts on the team's progress (and regress). So there's that.
The second thing that probably needs to be said—and will likely serve as an open, inviting chin to an angry uppercut by the time we're done—is that I am an ANONYMOUS blogger. Some days, I wish someone would show up with a moderately sized cheque and say: "Leave your days of toil behind and come write your blather for us!" But I have a mortgage and a wife and other ways to make my daily wage, and while I'm passionate about this side gig I've created for myself, the day job and the blog aren't ready to co-exist quite yet.
A last quick note before we dig in: I've liked Amy K. Nelson's work enough to follow her on Twitter for some time, so nothing out of the past few days should be taken to be a personal attack on her. I know that some of my initial language about this article was heated, and if that helped to fuel the ugliness of the past two days, I sincerely apologize to her.
Now, let me propose a jumping off point to the discussion, since this was the first thing that struck me about the piece: The way it was branded—"An Outside the Lines/ESPN: The Magazine Investigation"—needs to be taken into consideration when evaluating the merits of the article. If this were a brief article airing some scuttlebutt on a random Wednesday, then I'm sure that it might have run and raised some ire amongst the fans, but not like this.
But this piece presented itself as enterprise journalism, and my complaint is that it was not entrepreneurial enough. And yet, it carries that seal of quality that comes from long history of the good pieces done by Outside the Lines, which lends the article the both credibility and importance.
I'll always thank the Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. They're my second-favorite team for that reason alone.
You're right, Tao, that the Outside the Lines branding made this a bigger story. It was heavily promoted by ESPN online and with the in-studio interview with Amy. It wasn't a quick hit. Which I think is a good thing, but I see your point.
I'm going to take a guess at how this went down—and it's a guess. I repeat: ONLY A GUESS.
Earlier this season, as you no doubt know, the Yankees—specifically Joe Girardi—essentially accused the Jays of stealing signs. (Catcher Russell Martin did, too.) The Red Sox also change up their signs when they come to Toronto. These weren't new stories, really.
I'm guessing that somewhere along the way, Amy, who's a dogged reporter, had decided to ask around about the Jays in major-league clubhouses. There's a line in the story about players not liking to discuss such things, which, for me, was a signal from Amy that this was a tough story to report and that she probably isn't all that happy about having only anonymous sources for confirmation.
That being said, two points:
1) Anonymous sources are a standard part of investigative journalism, from Deep Throat on down. No journalist likes to use them, but we use them, because many important stories wouldn't get told without them.
2) Amy had four individual sources corroborating a single incident, which is pretty different from quoting some dude in a bar somewhere. And those sources provided Amy with a very specific account of said curious happening.
Amy (and Peter, I should add)—again I'm guessing—then looked for statistical evidence to support the various accusations. (Even though I would say that those accusations alone are newsworthy.) They found it, most particularly, in the statistic about the home run differential between the Jays and visiting teams at Rogers Centre—the third highest in the last sixty years.
Then they wrote the story, and then shit went nuts.
I'm not going to tell you it's a perfect story. I would have liked to see more quotes from the Jays. I would have liked to see historic comparisons between the current Jays teams and earlier Jays teams and their performances at Rogers Centre. (It might have been cool to see how this bunch compares to the 1992 or 1993 teams, which were also accused of stealing signs, by the way.)
But I think it's a good story that deserved to be told.
I guess what I'd ask you, Tao, is this: Do you believe the man in white existed? Do you believe that part of the story?
I guess I'll revert to my usual position as the perpetual fence-sitter, and say that I'm 50/50 as to whether I believe such a man existed, and about the same as to whether it bothers me or not. I've tried not to read Jonah Keri's piece on Grantland about this, but a glance at it gave me the impression that he would actually applaud such skullduggery. (Which might be an indication that we need to go grab Jonah and bring him back to Canada so that he can return to being typically over-polite and apologetic. But I digress.)
As to your point on the merits of the piece, I've re-read the piece a number of times now, and I can see where there is something there. It's still pretty sketchy, and it reads more like a proposal than a finished investigation, but there's the start of something on which follow-up could be done. My problem was that it wasn't. Though I did note that line to which you refer, and I understand that getting sources to go on the record would be tough—still, investigative journalism by its very nature is tough and exhausting. It has to be.
Were calls made to former Jays players or coaches (Nick Leyva or Brad Arnsberg come to mind), even if to get a stick-to-the-code denial? Or moreover, did someone sit down and watch the video of the games in question? If the piece were to say: "We watched the games in question, but could not ascertain that there was someone in those seats motioning toward the hitter," then it throws a big bucket of cold water on this whole thing.
Which brings me to my second point: The reason why I take this article seriously is because it impugns the reputation of a team, its players, and most specifically, its most visible player, Jose Bautista. We may have (arguably) left behind the "steroid era," but accusations of cheating resonate loudly, and quickly become fact in the echo chamber of sports talk. It's pretty stunning how quickly the entirety of a player's career can get wiped out with an accusation of cheating. Did anyone PROVE that Mike Scott ever did anything untoward with the ball in the 1986 season? And yet, if you and I were hauling back on a couple of pints at the Elmdale Tavern, and his name came up, how soon before we launched into smart remarks at his expense over his cutting and doctoring the ball?
The point here is that to call out a player or a team as a "cheater" with everything that we've gone through over the past decade, and to diminish their achievements requires a greater effort on the part of the reporters, and more verifiable information making it to the page.
I appreciate that as a Jays fan, my personal standard of proof might be incredibly high. I'd have liked the reporters to have gotten closer to it before they told me there might not be a Santa Claus.
While Jonah's definitely been corrupted by his border crossing, I would say he does have a point, which this story also makes: Sign stealing isn't technically illegal.
But I totally, totally understand what you're saying about leveling the cheater accusation. It's a big deal, and that's why I think Amy and Peter went to the lengths that they did. I hear you when you say that you don't think they went far enough. I can't really say for sure whether they did or not, because I don't know exactly what sort of reporting they did.
The video evidence, by the way, I'm not that fussed about. The chances of seeing that guy in the right-field stands during at-bats are pretty slim, I would think.
And interviews with former Jays might not have proved all that revealing, given that baseball is a small fraternity of guys who would like to keep working in the game, and that this might be a relatively recent phenomenon.
Here's my thinking:
1) The man-in-white story is a pretty specific story. For a reporter, that story is a good get—lots of detail and corroboration, including Bautista's confirmation that the altercation happened. I'm bothered somewhat by the idea that Bautista would have been a relative non-entity in the spring of 2010, when this apparently occurred. I don't quite get that.
2) Whether the Jays are stealing signs or not, they certainly have developed a reputation for stealing signs. That might be wildfire gossip spreading, but generally speaking, if enough people are saying the same thing, it's worth investigating.
3) The statistics in this story aren't definitive, but they're pretty interesting. Is this Toronto team really one of the all-time home-run teams of the last sixty years? And is Rogers Centre really that great of a home park?
4) The go-to defense that the Jays have a pretty mediocre home record doesn't wash with me. Sign stealing would do nothing to help their crappy bullpen.
5) And last—and most important—in some strange way, I think this story is GREAT for the Jays. If you have opposing teams coming into Rogers Centre doing who knows what with their signs and looking for UFOs in the outfield, that can only distract them from the rhythm of the game at hand. If I were the Jays, I think I'd want every team to think I had their signs.
There's a great story about the German soccer keeper Jens Lehmann. During a 2006 penalty shootout against Argentina, he pulled a cheat sheet out of his sock before each kick. On the sheet, he'd written the penalty tendencies of most of the Argentine players. Shot after shot, he kept picking the right direction. Then up came Esteban Cambiasso. Lehmann looked at his sheet for a long time before he tucked it back in his sock. He saved a pretty poor penalty from a rattled Cambiasso: What does he know?
Cambiasso wasn't even on the sheet. Lehmann was just a master of the head game.
This sign stealing stuff is fantastic head gaming.
Indeed, if I heard that there was an MLB team that were not stealing signs, I'd be shocked and banish them to some scrub league... like the NL Central. But this "reputation" that the Jays have is hardly new, as I specifically remember Orlando Hudson wearing the T-Bird uniform, bouncing around on second, and having a pitcher walk off the mound shouting at him. But that was under a different manager, different GM, totally different coaching staff... So is it the city that brings this out in them? Of course not. But reputations linger in sports because our memories are tied to the laundry, as it were.
Where I think Toronto has started to develop a bit of a reputation is that they play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, and with the ever-growing coterie of beat writers and national drop-ins, there's plenty of opportunity for those teams—who are under the greatest pressure and the biggest spotlight—to gripe about how they get beat on any given night. And, of course, they have.
Which brings me to a point that I think is important: Are the Red Sox and Yankees leveling the same accusations as the Mystery Team We Presume To Be the White Sox? I get that it is a specific story... But is it corroborated by the Yankees and Red Sox? I didn't see that on the page, but it's a vital point in taking this from "four teammates collectively rooted out one individual on one night" to "several anonymous sources on several teams say they saw this tactic in use." If you're trying to convince me, that goes a long way.
As for the stats: I just think that they were dealt with in too much isolation, and that inherently creates things that pop off the page. Players with good home splits were held up, but John Buck hit worse at home, and Edwin Encarnacion hit twice as many homers on the road as at home. Was he not seeing the signs? Were they not useful to him?
If you were to root around in the numbers of the all-time record home run season of the 1997 Mariners, I'm sure that you'd start to find all sorts of aberrational rates between them and their opponents. If you look at home run rates in a season of historical home run output, you'll find historical anomalies. But what of the fact that the Jays ranked in the bottom third of Major League Baseball in total hits? Is a stolen sign only redeemable for a round-tripper? Should the number of singles and doubles not have gone up as well if the Jays knew what was coming?
I know that there have been a lot of threads pulled from the data set, but if you are making a very specific accusation based on hearsay and a look at the numbers, you had better be prepared to have those numbers pulled every which way. The accusation was serious, and I think that the statistical analysis was cavalier in what they thought they could prove.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this whole saga for me was the reaction on the part of Peter when one of the interviewers on The Score used the term "cherry-pick" when discussing the stats: He got very terse and very angry and defensive, and defended his professional reputation vigorously. Wouldn't he expect the Blue Jays and their passionate fanbase—when being told that their professional reputation was being called into question—to respond with equal vigor?
I will definitely agree with you that there is something to this being a plus for the Jays, not only in terms of playing head games with their opponents, but in rallying their fans through the creation of a staunch "us versus the world" mentality. (I'd also note that we shouldn't discard the notion that the Red Sox and Yankees' accusations were based in their own attempts to get into the heads of their emerging rivals.)
One final thought on this from the point of view of a kid who grew up wanting to be a journalist (for Esquire no less... I see a body-switch comedy in our future!), got the degree and then lapsed into any number of other pursuits: I HATE that last paragraph of the piece, and you know what? I bet Amy isn't overly fond of having this piece close on that paragraph. It's a cop-out. It says: "We did the investigation, and we couldn't come up with enough to nail this down, but there's something there, and ain't that kinda interesting?" It's like something I would have done when I was a terrible, lazy 24-year-old J-school student. Which is why I'm... you know... an anonymous blogger.
I acknowledge your point that sometimes you have to proceed with circumstantial evidence. But I'll repeat myself here because I think it bears repeating: If your investigative piece ends with: "The evidence is circumstantial," then you haven't finished your investigation.
Tao, a wise man once told me that publishing is writing interrupted. What will be interesting for me, now, is to see where this story goes from here. It might just disappear into the ether of a long season. But I suspect that we'll hear a lot more about the Jays, the art of sign stealing, and where they go from here.
Speaking of which, how about Brett Lawrie?
Brett Lawrie is just awesome. He merits his two nicknames—Gordie Dougie, for his quintessential Canadianosity, and Full Tilt, for how he seems to approach everything from running out ground balls to celebrating grand slams. Watching that moment unfold the other night, I couldn't help but smile like a big goofy kid. It reminded me of something important: Baseball is pretty fun.
41 comments:
- Drew GROF said...
- August 12, 2011 at 12:39 AM
- Mike D said...
This is excellent. But someone still needs to explain to me the role that Alex Rios has played in all of this.
- August 12, 2011 at 12:56 AM
As you seemed to allude, Tao, I'm not inclined to view four teammates participating in the same event as four independent corroborators. They are collaborators.
In the sea-change that the internet brought, journalists have to endure the ability of all the eyeballs who read their pieces to react quickly, often, and in droves. (And with unprecedented anger, but that's a separate issue.) The screws better be pretty tight on your stories or you're going to hear about it.
And I'll bet dollars to doughnuts this story doesn't run in this half-finished form if it's accusing the Yankees or Red Sox of the same crimes.
- August 12, 2011 at 1:08 AM
- Brad Fullmer Fan said...
"Which brings me to my second point: The reason why I take this article seriously is because it impugns the reputation of a team, its players, and most specifically, its most visible player, Jose Bautista. We may have (arguably) left behind the "steroid era," but accusations of cheating resonate loudly, and quickly become fact in the echo chamber of sports talk. It's pretty stunning how quickly the entirety of a player's career can get wiped out with an accusation of cheating....
The point here is that to call out a player or a team as a "cheater" with everything that we've gone through over the past decade, and to diminish their achievements requires a greater effort on the part of the reporters, and more verifiable information making it to the page."
This is one of the keys of this entire thing for me. If you're going to disparage an entire organization and its players, you have to do more than what ESPN did (or at least more than what was published in that article).
It's also not a coincidence that Jose Bautista is the lead in the story and also the main image in the video package. People in the States have been looking for reasons to doubt and discredit Bautista's production for two seasons now and this is another aspect of that unfortunate narrative.
- August 12, 2011 at 1:31 AM
- awlang said...
It was a good back and forth but it seemed there were no counter arguments (Stay with me) to Tao's counter arguments to Chris' comments supporting the piece. I feel like I've gotten the same politically correct, corporate, nonsense that doesn't make a point from KLaw, Keri and now Jones regarding the article as a whole and the statistics in general.
Look I don't like the vitriol against Nelson because she is a woman (really detracts from this being a bad article) but when the best defense of article and supporting stats are as follows it is pretty telling that it wasn't very good:
"At the risk of appealing to authority or playing favorites, Nelson has a reputation as one of the most dogged baseball reporters in the business. Her story on the events leading up to Nick Adenhart's death is one of the best pieces of baseball journalism I've ever read. She and Keating no doubt worked hard on this piece."
"In general, yes. I'd like more information, certainly, but I also know more of the background info than appeared in the article, too....
First of all, I didn't write it. Second, Colin Wyers' research didn't focus on raw HR totals, but HR/contact rates."
"The statistics in this story aren't definitive, but they're pretty interesting. Is this Toronto team really one of the all-time home-run teams of the last sixty years? And is Rogers Centre really that great of a home park?"
Sure Keri thinks Nelson is great, and I'm sure they worked hard...but...they missed the point. Law would certainly like more information because the article is incomplete and wants to make clear he didn't write it but sure it's great (Did they even think to ask Law?). And Jones' comments leave him asking for more information, always the sign of a great piece of work accusing a team of cheating.
I know they all work for ESPN, but I thought Grantland was supposed to be a separate entity that had some independent thinkers that could openly question something that was at least a little dubious on the World Wide Leader. Clearly...not so much and we will see Keri and Jones towing the company line for a while (Though, good for them, I would take that job in a second).
- August 12, 2011 at 1:40 AM
- gabriel said...
Yeah, the article was pretty much one anecdote wrapped in a bunch of irrelevancies and some cherry-picked stats. Doubtless the four relievers saw a guy in white doing something - is it possible that that something was passing pitches? Sure, but Nelson & Keating offer no real evidence to support that inference. I would bet they looked at a 7-pitch sample, the guy in the outfield "got it right" 6 times, and they jumped to an unwarranted conclusion (perhaps particularly so since the White Sox hit 8 HRs that series to the Jays' 3).
The best number that Nelson & Keating come up with is the Jays' home run on contact %. But 7 times the average differential tells us very, very little. For one, the Jays were a great HR-hitting club, even away from home - so we would expect a significantly larger-than-average gap at home (and away). So this impressive-seeming number really tells us nothing by itself.
One further note about the home run numbers - why should we think that stealing signs helps home runs and nothing else? I for one would expect to see a greater contact rate and fewer off-speed pitches chased as being the first fruits of stealing signs. We are either not told about these numbers because the authors didn't look at them, or because they don't support the prosecution - either way, it doesn't speak well of the authors.
An exceedingly shoddy piece of work.
- August 12, 2011 at 2:12 AM
- William J. Tasker said...
One missed point in all this: How did the man in white steal signs? Did he have binoculars? Nothing mentioned. Did he have a video feed from MLB.tv? Not said. If he did, how quick would he have to get those arms up after seeing the sign? The logic doesn't add up.
All we know is that it was a guy in a white shirt who held his arms in a certain way. He must have the eyes of an eagle.
It looks like Jones will get to keep his ESPN job because he didn't ever stray in any kind of way apart from the company line.
Great defense, Tao.
- August 12, 2011 at 8:27 AM
- MJK said...
The video evidence, by the way, I'm not that fussed about. The chances of seeing that guy in the right-field stands during at-bats are pretty slim, I would think.
yet this person can apparently be seen from home plate by the batter?
- August 12, 2011 at 9:17 AM
- Jim Briggs said...
This is just the kind of thing that keeps me coming back here. Great (and civil) discussion.
- August 12, 2011 at 9:50 AM
- DWBudd said...
I think this colloquy gets it just about right. It has all the right cloak and dagger earmarks to make it interesting, and a whiff of evidence to prevent the reporter being laughed off of the air.
I don't know if there is a "man in white," as some players allege. There is so much video footage, from every conceivable angle, that I don't believe for a second that, if this guy really exists, it would be pretty easy for ESPN to capture and present dispositive evidence. The fact that they haven't leads me to believe that there is more smoke here than anything else.
Human beings, as a result of millennia of evolution, are trained to find post hoc patterns where there is nothing more than correlation. "Hmmm... The team seemed not to swing and miss on a couple of off-speed pitches. We saw a guy in a white shirt moving his arms around about the same time. There MUST be some relation."
The statistical evidence is even thinner. The alpha and omega of the case here is that the team had an odd home run advantage at home. Not one other stat - not OBP, not OPS, not strikeout percentage - is mentioned. There is no attempt made by ESPN, who employ STATS INC, to compare home/road splits for the Jays' pitchers with respect to any of these stats.
It's basically, well, they hit too many home runs in 2010.
A quick look at the home/road splits for the Blue Jays shows that the gap for pitchers in OPS - really, the most holistic offensive stat - is not significantly different from the "advantage" the hitters got at the SkyDome.
Oh, and since Boston is one of those teams that apparently are whispering about sign stealing, in 2011, the Sox's home field advantage in OPS is 11%. Toronto's is 10%.
- August 12, 2011 at 9:57 AM
- Jim Briggs said...
Plus, Tao, I think you win by virtue of no true answers to your counter-argument.
It's a real shame that people have gone to some really disgusting places in their criticism of AKN, when it is in fact her half-baked work that merits scrutiny here. It helped the establishment regroup, when instead the onus should have been on them to offer better proof in discrediting a franchise.
- August 12, 2011 at 9:57 AM
- Tao of Stieb said...
It's funny, because I can re-read this again and come away feeling as though there were no winning side, but that we've each had our say and moved the other out of the anger and towards a conciliatory place.
You know, dispute resolution is a vastly under-appreciated skill.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:16 AM
- cdsmitty said...
What I still don't understand through all of this is that both Amy and Peter STRENUOUSLY defend the fact that getting an anonymous source was the equivalent to pulling teeth. If it is indeed so difficult to get players to go on record and accuse the Jays, why does the same article have Giarardi, Salty (seriously, get a shorter last name, I can't spell check that), and Martin all claiming the Jays were stealing signs. It seems extremely contradictory to use this as your main defence for your anonymous source, and then find direct sources, who will go on National TV. Anyone else?
- August 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM
- Chris Chapin said...
@cdsmitty - I couldn't agree more with you on that point. Bucholz and Martin and Girardi had no problem going on national television and claiming that the Jays were stealing signs. Yet a couple of relievers from the White Sox had to remain anonymous. I mean in this day and age, does anybody actually feel as if anything can in fact remain anonymous?
But what troubles me the most is that what punishment was there going to be for the White Sox. What inherent danger was there for them to come forward and join a long list of far more well known players who were accusing the Jays of stealing signs. If Russel Martin does it, he knows there is a good chance Brandon Morrow might drill him in the back the next game. What personal danger is there for a bullpen pitcher? Small fraternity my ass, no one team other than the Jays is going to boycott you for speaking your mind on a rather compelling and troubling incident if true. It just reeks of suspicion.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:26 AM
- Tao of Stieb said...
I can see that there would be a point where players will talk, but you ask them to put their names to something, and they either fear retribution or fear being held up for scorn, so they demure.
There's a bit of noise out there about how there's more to the story that is known in the industry, or that the writers might know but can't find a way to get on the page. To me, I just think you have to go get more than the low-hanging fruit if you're going to go this far down the road of undermining a team's credibility.
José Bautista deserves to take pride in those 54 home runs. If someone is going to try to tarnish that legacy, they'd better come with more than this BECAUSE there are so many for whom LESS than this would suffice.
Heavy is the hand that holds the pen. (Or somethin'.)
- August 12, 2011 at 10:31 AM
- Tao of Stieb said...
Sorry, I sidestepped something here...
I think it was revealing what happened with Martin and Girardi when they were asked about the sign stealing the next day. The night that they got their asses handed to them, they were all outrage and indignation and accusation.
But the next day, did you see how they backpedalled? There's a sense of embarrassment there, and they changed the subject to their own need to protect their signs.
Heat of the moment, people say strong things. Put in the cold grey light of dawn, it's hard for them to stand behind it.
(I'm sure that the day after a manager gets tossed from a game, he's a little less likely to think that an umpire is a mothereffer and that he cost the team the game.)
- August 12, 2011 at 10:35 AM
- The Ack said...
For real, you had to post this on a Friday? I now have the blogging equivalent of urinal stage fright.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:37 AM
- MJK said...
demur and demure don't mean the same thing.
i agree with the above Jim Briggs who noted that the most striking thing about the exchange is how few of your points are answered head on. while civil, your interlocutor doesn't offer much of a defense of the piece.
whatever story there is about the Jays and sign-stealing, that story was not well served by this article. when you look at the stats, the sources, and the conclusion, this is only a few steps away from Cox's infamous "you gotta ask the question" piece.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:41 AM
Excellent work - I wish that Jones had addressed some of your points in his final reply, but I think it is telling that he did not.
I think the story that has evolved is of journalism's own fraternity. It's unfortunate the way that ad hominems got in the way of allowing this discussion to happen sooner.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:48 AM
- Tao of Stieb said...
Demur. Goddamned homonyms.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:49 AM
- Tao of Stieb said...
There's an aspect of this that has to do with the velvet rope with which some members of the media keep themselves separated from the cattle, and they keep information to themselves.
(Although that criticism is a little rich here, because we're criticizing the authors for saying too much of what they heard.)
- August 12, 2011 at 10:52 AM
- Chris Chapin said...
I think your certainly right in that both Girardi and Martin backtracked after they made their comments. But they said it on the record nonetheless. Not only that it wasn't like they were the only ones to be vocal about it in the media.
I feel as if it had more to do with the fact they are the GM and Catcher respectively of the most famous team in sport and it looks pretty shameful when you make excuses like this right after you had your ass handed to you.
I really find it hard to believe that these guys were that scared to come forward. Again they are bullpen pitchers - it's not like we're talking about Paul Konerko coming forward with these accusations. But I digress, you are probably right that it is difficult for these guys to speak their mind. Just surprises me considering you think they would unequivocally have the support of their manager who has never shied away from a headline.
Great post by the way - unquestionably one of the best posts I have read in a very long time. I love the back and forth.
- August 12, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Beautiful piece, Tao. I'm a fan of yours and Jones and you guys handled yourselves very well here. I too think it's telling that your points weren't really addressed. I'm hoping that this gets you noticed and you are given the opportunity at a paying gig by someone. Your hard work and dedication to your writing (and the team) deserve it.
- August 12, 2011 at 11:08 AM
A simple question that I haven't seen asked/answered, is that if they had this inside knowledge, why didn't Keating, Nelson or some ESPN lackey go to a Jays game with a camera and catch them in the act? Would that have been too difficult?
An awful story for which I have cancelled my Insider subscription.
- August 12, 2011 at 11:25 AM
- Chris Chapin said...
What amazes me in a way is that if they were in fact stealing signs - and the confrontation did in fact happen with Bautista as even he admits - don't you think his first reaction would be to tell the club they should probably change their tactics or face getting caught?
- August 12, 2011 at 11:28 AM
Cheers to fighting the good fight and for giving the Jays fan a voice that will be read by many over at Chris' blog.
I think we Jays fans are being overly sensitive, but it is a real issue. Telling a story based on incomplete information and selective stats is dangerous because most readers won't understand that is what has occured.
One of my favourite things about being a Canadian is our shared thin skin over what we hold near and dear. We are proud of our teams, our movie stars and our internationally sucessful music stars (save for Celine Dion). Daggers to anyone who talks about them in a negative light!
- August 12, 2011 at 11:32 AM
If "knowing" what pitch is coming is so beneficial, why do All-Stars ever make outs in the Home Run Derby?
- August 12, 2011 at 11:43 AM
- Frank said...
Nice jorb, both of you.
I'd like to know where Colin Wyers has been in all of this. He has barely mentioned it on his twitter account and I'm pretty sure he didn't write a piece explaining his stats. I still have no idea why HR/CON% is the stat to tell you if there's sign stealing going on. It's such an egregious cherry pick.
Also, I'm pretty sure we all knew the Jays had an outrageous outlier of a home run year last year. So comparing their HR/CON% to their opponents in the same parks isn't really fair.
Smells like a total case of looking for a stat that will back up your anecdotes.
- August 12, 2011 at 11:59 AM
- ErnieWhitt said...
Its been written above but the biggest quote for me was this: "The video evidence, by the way, I'm not that fussed about. The chances of seeing that guy in the right-field stands during at-bats are pretty slim, I would think."
The video evidence should have been the FIRST thing that ESPN collected. Absence of actual proof means they have anecdotal evidence and stats that may or may not merit a second look. Ignoring all of the other stats that clearly show this idea is preposterous is shameful. They used this story to smear Jose Bautista. If I were him I would be seeking a formal apology.
- August 12, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Perhaps the most interesting part of this whole saga for me was the reaction on the part of Peter when one of the interviewers on The Score used the term "cherry-pick" when discussing the stats: He got very terse and very angry and defensive, and defended his professional reputation vigorously. Wouldn't he expect the Blue Jays and their passionate fanbase—when being told that their professional reputation was being called into question—to respond with equal vigor?
Absolutely nails. The irony blows me away.
Keating's research is nowhere sufficient but expects us to give him such courtesy about his own record, as he broadly strokes his own highlights.
With the risk of sounding redundant, whatever their intent, the result was a not very good article that was inadequately researched.
No amount of praising the reputation how 'dogged' of a reporter either Keating or Nelson is, will ever change that fact.
Keith Law spoke about the possibility that we are too worried about the fact that we lost sight of good journalism, because we do not agree with the findings, but at the same time he wants more information.
And isn't that all we as reasonable fans want in light of this article: more information?
- August 12, 2011 at 12:28 PM
I agree with Mike D. Its all about Rios. The White Sox are pissed at Toronto for getting stuck with him when the music stopped playing. Wonder what the Angels have in store for the Jays in retribution for the Wells heist? Or the Cardinals for that matter when the smoke clears? The only stealing going on other than with Davis the odd time he reaches base, happens on the phone or behind closed doors at the executive level. Our resident wizard AA might be good for one more sleight of hand before the hammer comes down and every GM refuses to deal with him. Thank god for FA.
- August 12, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Excellent discussion! A very fun read.
- August 12, 2011 at 1:15 PM
From over the border:
- August 12, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Even more interesting: (With photos of the man in white)
- August 12, 2011 at 1:40 PM
- allisauce said...
"We'd love to believe all the denials coming out of Toronto that the Blue Jays would never, ever steal signs. But other clubs have been buzzing about that possibility since last season. One of the biggest reasons has been the transformation of Jose Bautista -- but not so much in his power numbers as in his amazing ability to lay off tough breaking balls he used to hack at.
"This guy could always hit a fastball," one scout said. "But he'd chase so many other pitches, he didn't get in enough hitters' counts to get those fastballs. Now he doesn't chase those pitches. I've never seen anything like it. I've never seen a player make that change and do it that dramatically."
Bautista at home last year: 55 walks, 44 strikeouts, .403 OBP, 1.118 OPS.
On the road last year: 45 walks, 72 strikeouts, .353 OBP, .879 OPS.
His splits this year aren't anywhere near so pronounced. But let's just say AL executives and scouts we surveyed didn't dismiss this sign-stealing flap as preposterous. Nevertheless, said one AL exec, "I'm guessing you won't be seeing a guy in a white shirt holding up his arms there anymore.""
That's from ESPN today.
Was that the point of this article? To allow others at ESPN to write stuff like this, to cast more doubt on Bautista? To impugn his MVP candidacy versus thos ein larger markets *cough*Boston*cough*.
We heard about the pack that ESPN ran while talking about the sign stealing gate - only clips of Bautista hitting home runs... Bobby Vaentine called it "misleading" on air.
Maybe I'm wearing a tinfoil hat here....
- August 12, 2011 at 3:03 PM
- Tao of Stieb said...
Allisauce: Where's that article?
- August 12, 2011 at 3:10 PM
- allisauce said...
Its here:
I posted the bit in its entirety.
The bit about Valetine is discussed here:
- August 12, 2011 at 3:17 PM
- allisauce said...
I'll say this -
This is in their "rumblings and grumblings" section. Not as "Journalistic" as OTL. However, the "news" portion of the OTL work allows this other work to be published without fear of someone saying its not fair, because it was reported elsewhere first.
It's all very... Fox News-ish to me.
- August 12, 2011 at 3:19 PM
- Tao of Stieb said...
Well, this is what I mean when I talk about the echo effect of these rumours. One person says it, than another reinforces, and suddenly Jose Bautista is a bum.
And yet...
- August 12, 2011 at 4:12 PM
One question I have about this. Let's say the Jays did have this man in white. With such an in-depth way to steal signs, why didn't they just have him sit on the other side of the batter's eye? That way, you look over the right shoulder of the pitcher, get the sign, and the man in white is far away from the opponent's bullpen. Why put your cheater close to the opposition?
- August 13, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Great piece.
What are the chances the Jays next promo is half priced out field tickets if you show up wearing all white and promise to speak into your sleeve?
- August 14, 2011 at 5:52 AM


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