text: The Power of Body Language Oct 07, 2014 by Liz Britain in Technology We're big believers in the power of nonverbal communication here at Lifesize. We take pride in providing our customers with the ability to meet face-to-face without ever having to leave their office. Since nonverbal communication is conservatively estimated to make up two-thirds of the content of all communication, it's incredibly important to be aware of what cues we're sending out to listeners.One person who's done a lot to expand the conversation about nonverbal communication is Amy Cuddy, a Harvard Business School professor and social psychologist whose lecture on Body Language at TEDGlobal 2012 in Edinburgh has become the second most-viewed video TEDTalk of all time. The fact that it's been viewed some 20 million times and counting illustrates just how interested people are in using nonverbal communication to their advantage, which is the focus of Cuddy's talk.In primate hierarchies, alpha roles are fluid, as they are in our society While ape leaders don't get deposed in the same way that, say, a president loses reelection, the fundamental transference of power is the same. Cuddy's research indicated that when primate alphas are displaced, their usurpers undergo a hormonal change. These new alphas experience sudden increases in testosterone and decreases in cortisol. Cuddy et al hypothesized that these situational hormone changes existed in humans as well, so they decided to put that theory to the test.The researches brought volunteers into the lab and had them model literal power positions - the open postures and raised chests associated with positions of dominance - for two minutes. Other subjects were given submissive, closed postures. The people assigned power positions tested higher for testosterone and lower for cortisol across the board, while the inverse was found to be true of the submissive set. The researchers then wanted to subject their findings to more practical conditions, conditions that would test the applicability of their findings to day-to-day life.Now, in addition to having to practice either high- or low-power poses, subjects underwent a grueling five-minute "job interview" immediately afterwards. The people conducting the interviews were blind to the conditions; all they knew was that they were supposed to keep a neutral posture during the interviews and then decide which applicants they would hire after reviewing subsequent recordings. Unsurprisingly, the interviewers universally preferred the subjects who'd just subconsciously improved their testosterone-to-cortisol ratio via power posturing, even though the content of what the "winning applicants" said was not fundamentally different than what the "losing applicants" had said.In the end, Cuddy found that making an audience more receptive to you and your ideas is as simple as taking a few minutes to improve your power posture. Here's where video conferencing comes in. Not only does pre-interview power posturing work in person, as demonstrated by Prof. Cuddy's research, but it's an increasingly viable strategy in long-distance communication as well. Because video conferencing provides an all-important visual component to these conversations, it ensures that your listener gets the benefit of your improved confidence and on-point body language, making it easier to get your point across, make the sale, or earn the promotion. Between video conferencing and Dr. Cuddy's body language tricks, it's never been easier to look your best!


text:
|Pseudobot now runs on over 30 GURPS themed Discord
In terms of other projects going on:
- Better Pseudobot Documentation - Not Funded
- Better Pseudobot Index Documentation - Not Funded
- Mass Combat Calculator - Almost Complete with a fully functional pre-pre-pre-pre-alpha.
- GMing - Running a casual campaign on the side to keep my gears oiled.
- Setting Development: Working on mechanics for a low tech dragon/dinosaur stalking game. Got a lot of it together, but a lot of rough edges to iron out.
- Fnord Command - Not Funded
- Porting Pseudobot to Other Eco-systems - Not Funded
If you'd like to make a suggestion for something else you'd like to see in the pipeline, you can become a patreon or send a buck to paypal for one suggestion listened to and earnestly evaluated, and if I like it, either implemented or triaged for a patreon goal.

subset: commoncrawl


text: Rory Campbell-Lange <firstname.lastname@example.com> writes: > Should I be using yaboot or BootX? The extract from the yaboot FAQ > seems to suggest that yaboot is for G4s, iMacDVs, or Pismo laptops. You definatley want to use yaboot on Lombards. The lombard (afaiui), isn't quite a Newworld machine, but yaboot does work on it, and it makes things work much better. (especially with resources allocation in relation to the video hardware) ttyl, -- Josh Huber | firstname.lastname@example.com |


text: CIPET offers the Undergraduate and Postgraduate programs in Engineering / Technology at its Institute of Plastics Technology (IPT) centres located at Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Kochi and Lucknow in the fields of Polymer Science & Technology, Manufacturing Engineering / Technology. The Undergraduate and Postgraduate Programs are affiliated to respective State Universities viz. Gujarat Technological University, Gujarat University, Biju Patnaik University of Technology, Utkal University, Anna University, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technical University. The B.E. / B.Tech. and M.E. / M.Tech. programs are approved by AICTE. M.Sc. Tech.(Material Science & Engineering), M.Sc.(Bio-Polymer Science) and M.Sc.(Polymer Science) programs are aslo being offered in affiliation with State Universities at Selected Institute of Plastics Technology (IPT) Centres.


text:
Anyone who knows about that make up industry already knows that most often, make up as a whole is boring. Too many of the make up giants are making run of the mill shades that are not exciting or fun. It is for this reason that a make up company called Lime Crime was born.
Doe Deere started the make up company Lime Crime when she had an extra hundred dollars and a huge dream. She realized that make up was boring and that girls and women everywhere wanted more from their make up products. One of the biggest things the cosmetic buyer wanted was something money can't buy, that is the freedom to use make up to express yourself.
As the founder of Lime Crime, and even before, Doe Deere was no stranger to freedom of expression or the fashion world. Doe used her experience and her knowledge of the cosmetic world to create the company Lime Crime and the products that are based on what the cosmetic wearers seemed to be lacking.
Girls wanted freedom of expression that came from bright colors. As a result, Doe Deere used the brightest colors that she could and did what no make up company has ever done, that is to produce a make up with true to life color.
To design the products of Lime Crime, Doe gathered an independent team of cosmetic experts who really understood make up. The Lime Crime team produces cosmetics that offer true to life color. As if that was not enough, these are cruelty-free cosmetics that every woman can be proud of using.
You can get lipsticks in amazing colors, lip gloss that feels great and has tints that make your lips pop along with eyeliners and eye shadow that offers amazing pigments. All of the products are based on the most requested products that the cosmetic industry seemed to be lacking.
If you are looking for some awesome nail polish you can rest assured that Lime Crime has that available for you too. The best part is that all of the products come with that true to life color that allows a girl to express her personality and style. Once you try the products offered by Lime Crime you will be amazed at the beauty you can create.
It does not matter if you need cosmetic products today or in the future, if you are seeking the ability of personal expression mixed with true to life color, Lime Crime is the brand for you. You owe it to yourself to check out the colorful, expressive products that make up the Lime Crime collection. You will be ecstatic that you took the time to check out this brand.


text:
Filler Cap Adapter
The Filler Cap Adapter (Part #2040) is for both the 2.5 gallon and 2 quart Liquid Fuel Tank Filler Cap.
GSA pricing is available to GSA Authorized Purchasers. For GSA pricing details, please contact us by phone, email, or fax. Otherwise, orders placed online will be processed as "Open Market Pricing".
We Also Recommend


text:
My friend Heidi contacted me a few months ago and asked what I'd think of taking a trip to Calgary to do her family's photos. Of course, I jumped on the opportunity! I had one request, that we do a sunset family photo session. I love the Alberta landscape and was really excited to capture it in all its glory at the golden hour. These adorable girls were pretty amazing for the session and braved the mosquitoes which I have now termed "little fairies". It seemed a fitting way to add to the ethereal look of the park we visited. Sadly, the little fairies did get us a few times which required some editing to remove a few red marks. Thank goodness for Photoshop! I loved every minute of this trip but this session was a highlight. Enjoy the photos!
Thanks for visiting Perfect Moments Photography based in Abbotsford, BC Canada. If you are interested in booking a family photo session or any other photography session please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.com. I look forward to hearing from you!


text:
- Who We Are
- What We Do
- What We Care About
- What You Can Do
Connecticut single-family home sales grew by 13.8% to 1,352 in February 2015 from $1,188 in February 2014 making it the first time since February 2008 that sales were this high during February. However, the median sales price of a single-family home dropped by almost 5% from $236,000 in February 2014 to $224,750 in February 2015.
Over 70% of the increase in single-family homes sold was due to increases in Fairfield and New Haven County. The median single-family sales price decreased in February for half of the counties with Middlesex County the only one with a decrease under 10%. To counter that, Tolland County was the only county with an increase over 10%.
Year-to-date (YTD) median sales price fared worse with only three counties posting increases, with all under 10%. The highest was Windham County with a 7.3% YTD increase from $150,000 in 2014 to $161,000 in 2015. The lowest increase belonged to New London County with a 1.7% increase from $201,000 in 2014 to $204,500 in 2015. Of the 5 counties that experienced a decline in YTD median sales price, Hartford County fared the worst with a 12.1% drop from $210,000 in 2014 to $184,500 in 2015.
State-wide condo sales jumped 14.1% from 355 last year to 405 this year. However, the median sales price decreased by almost 2% from $155,000 in February 2014 to $152,000 in February 2015.
Condo median sales price only increased in February for Fairfield and Litchfield Counties. Fairfield County experienced the largest increase with a 22.0% change from $230,500 in 2014 to $281,250 in 2015. Change in Windham County's median sales price cannot be included because it only sold one condo during the February of 2014. Of the five counties where condo median sales price decreased, New London and Tolland County fared worse with New London County decreasing 30.2% percent from $133,000 in 2014 to $92,780 in 2015 and Tolland County not far behind with a 29.7% drop from $163,500 in 2014 to $115,000 in 2015.
Fairfield and Windham County were the only counties to see a YTD median sales price gain. Hartford experienced no change and of the remaining five counties Tolland County had the largest drop in YTD median sales price, going from $152,000 in 2014 to $119,500 in 2015 for a 21.4% decrease.
Click here to read more from The Commercial Record.


text: The tower, which once guarded the eastern end of the city's sea walls, was for many years attributed to Venice, to which the Byzantines ceded Thessaloniki in 1423. It is now known definitely that the tower was constructed by the Ottomans some time after the army of Sultan Murad II captured Thessaloniki in 1430.[1] Until 1912, an inscription in Ottoman Turkish verse above the door dated the structure to AH 942 (1535–1536). The historian Franz Babinger speculated that the work was designed by the great Ottoman architect Mimar Sinan, who is known to have built fortifications, including a similar tower at the Albanian port Valona in 1537. The present tower likely replaced an older Byzantine tower mentioned by the 12th century archbishop Eustathios during the sack of 1185.


text:
In what was yet another clinical performance, World No. 1 Rafael Nadal defeated No. 28 Kevin Anderson 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 to lift his third US Open title and his 16th overall Grand Slam title.
He is second to only No. 3 Roger Federer, who has 19 Grand Slam titles. Nadal will now have an almost 2000-point lead that will further cement his position at the top of the rankings.
At this tournament, Nadal missed playing Federer, who lost to No. 24 seed Juan Martin del Potro in the quarter-finals. Nadal didn't face an opponent in the top 20 in his run to the title.
This is Anderson's first major final. Coming into the US Open, his best Grand Slam result was at the quarter-finals of the 2015 US Open, where he defeated Andy Murray, but ended up losing to Stan Wawrinka.
On Sunday, he was completely overwhelmed by Nadal, who he has known since he was a child. "It feels like I have been watching you play all my life," Anderson said.
Nadal dominated every aspect of the match that lasted around two-and-a-half hours. Anderson was able to serve aces — his biggest strength — under extreme pressure but it was no match to Nadal's superior forehand and a ferocious backhand.
Nadal managed to break Anderson four times in the game — all that was needed to take the match in straight sets.
This win is also Nadal's final major with his uncle, Toni, as his coach. Toni Nadal is stepping aside to focus on his work at Nadal's tennis academy in Mallorca, Spain. Carlos Moya, a former world No. 1, joined Nadal's coaching team in December.
As the US Open closes up the 2017 Slam season, it the marks the year of resurgence of the old-timers of the game: both Nadal and Federer have each won two of the four major titles.


text:
It's a July morning at 6:45 a.m. and the temperature is starting to climb across the city, according to The Hechinger Report. Most schoolchildren would expect to have at least a few more weeks of summer. But Quincy Lindsey, a fifth-grader at New Orleans' ReNEW Cultural Arts Academy, is trying to wake up for his first day of school. His mother, Calanthia Lindsey, tries to keep Quincy on pace to make it to school by 7:15 a.m., reminding him not to use his pencils as drumsticks and to tuck in his shirt. ReNEW is one of hundreds of schools nationwide that are adding time to the school year—lengthening school days, requiring Saturday classes or shortening summer. Calanthia Lindsey hopes more time in the classroom will help Quincy stay motivated…
To improve learning, some schools lengthen the school day or year
By staff and wire services reports
July 31st, 2013


text:
What comes to mind when you hear the phrase Silver and Gold? For me, a rhyme I learned long ago has been running through my mind ever since I heard that Our Daily Bread's 2nd Anniversary Day 3 Challenge was Silver and Gold:
Make new friends but keep the old.
One is silver and the other is gold.
So, I decided to create a card in honor of my friends, past and present! The products used to create this card include:
Provo Craft Paper Palette Collage Pad – Florals
CTMH My Acrylix Stamp Set B1127 – Make New Friends
Colorbox Pigment Stamp Pad – Gold
Offray Ribbon 18144 – Wired Firefly
For fun, I thought I'd share my card with a few friends on these challenge sites as well!
Cute Card Thursday Challenge #103 – Celebrations
Ooh-La-La Creations Challenge #49 – Anything Goes
Paper Cutz Challenge #32 – Anything Goes
Secret Crafter Challenge #74 – Anything Goes


text:
21 Nov Micro Marketing – Marketing on customers demand
Are you watching your customers?
Its time to step down from the ladders of branding. Its time to meet your customers where they are, in the position they're at and at the situation they're facing. Its time to do Micro Marketing.
Micro Marketing is mega important for everyone. When your customers are ready to interact you better be ready to start building a relation. Agreed?
Micro Marketing is something every shop assistant do every day. Are shop assistants sales people or marketing people? Read on to understand the concept of Micro Marketing!


text:
Instructions to live stream the Apple iPhone occasion on March 21
The iPhone and iPad producer is broadly anticipated that would declare new equipment.
Apple is holding a mid-season occasion to uncover what is generally anticipated that would be new items.
The occasion is normal on March 21 at Apple's home office in Cupertino, California at 10am PT and 1am ET. (You can see that in your neighborhood timezone here top gadgets reviews online).
The organization is relied upon to report a 4-inch iPhone, likely called the iPhone SE, which arrives with another A9 processor, Touch ID, Apple Pay support, and a 8-megapixel back camera. Another 9.7-inch iPad is likewise expected, alongside some incremental redesigns to Apple Watch.
Apple will stream the occasion live, highlighting Apple CEO Tim Cook and other senior officials.
On the off chance that you are around to watch the hour-long keynote, viewers must watch the stream online with Safari on iOS 7.0 or later, a Mac with Safari 6.0.5 or later on OS X 10.8.5 or later.
In case you're viewing through Apple TV, you can watch the stream on second or third-era Apple TV with programming 6.2 or later, or on any fourth-era Apple TV.
Windows 10 clients can likewise observe live through the Edge program.
In case you're far from your TV, we'll have live scope for the duration of the day..
You can check the top gadgets reviews online stream for news as it happens, or look at our Apple area. You can likewise read our scope.


text:
Monday, September 21, 2015
CASEing Monika - take two
So I took out my elephant stamps from Lawn Fawn and stamped them onto patterned paper and cut them out. I placed them onto a die cut heart (Memory Box) which I inked with fired brick DI.
The sentiment is heat embossed with silver EP, the stamp is from Technique Tuesday.
The background is stenciled using black DI, which I think actually looks grey when used for stenciling.
For a bit more color I added 3 sequins from my stash.
I'm sure Monika would appreciate your visit too, you can check out her post here to see her version of one of my cards and leave her some love:)
This card is for these challenges:
Crafty Creations - #298 It Takes Two
City Crafter Challenge - #279 - Paper Piecing
Papertake Weekly - Animal Magic
Inspiration Destination - #51 Always Anything Goes
30 comments:
- Monika Reeck said...
Yaay Pia :)
I adore your CASE ing card
it has a cuuuutee elephant
and love that big Heart (my heart is so tiny on my card hihi)
and lovely grey background
you are great at CASE ing girl..
love love love your card
hugs, Monika
PS: thanks for CASE ing my card and we do it again soon sweety it was really fun to CASE ing your card..
- September 21, 2015 at 10:22 AM
- Lisa Minckler said...
Well, golly....Monika said it all. Your card IS wonderful and you've CASEd it perfectly. Amazing that images of something so big like an elephant, being so tender (which they are) can just melt your heart. Your card is really a beautiful work!!
hugs to you,
Lisa x
- September 21, 2015 at 11:24 AM
- Lau W said...
Love this cute image, adorable ! And the design of your card is superb !
- September 21, 2015 at 1:06 PM
- Asha said...
Beautifully executed, Pia. Every detail is perfect - the background, the large heart and the little elephants. Outstanding card! Hope you are well rested after your holidays.
x Asha
- September 21, 2015 at 1:32 PM
- KraftyKoolKat said...
This is so cute and pretty Pia. Awesome background sweetie.
- September 21, 2015 at 2:58 PM
- Imke said...
Adorable Card, Pia ! I totally like the Background ( i think it´s time to buy a stencil **lol**) and the little elephants are too cute !!
- September 21, 2015 at 3:06 PM
- meg said...
Beautiful card Pia love the paper pieced elephants and the heart behind them makes the card so sweet
- September 21, 2015 at 4:39 PM
- Laine said...
Such a cutie Pia. Sweet image and detail.
- September 21, 2015 at 6:04 PM
- Jacee said...
So cute Pia, a really sweet design
hugs Jacee
Simply Paper Card Design
- September 21, 2015 at 7:31 PM
- KT Fit Kitty said...
This is so cute! The elephants are adorable! You did a great job CASEing Monika's card! I am a fan of Monika's blog so I enjoy seeing both cards! She CASEd yours today too! So fun!
- September 21, 2015 at 7:38 PM
- cotnob said...
A fabulous card Pia, a brilliant background and your elephants are so cute.
- September 21, 2015 at 8:56 PM
- Chrissy said...
Fabulous CASEing Pia..love the cute elephants and stencilled background with the perfectly placed sequins..gorgeous.
luv CHRISSYxx
- September 21, 2015 at 9:28 PM
- scrAPpamondo said...
This CASE is just adorable!! How it's elegant! The stenciled background is light and sweet and the sponged big heart seems smooth. Love the two cute elephant!!You made a wonderful card, my friend!
Big hugs!
- September 21, 2015 at 10:38 PM
- Donna said...
These are both darling Pia. What a fun idea and the cards are so alike and yet different, both so charming and fun! Hugs, Donna
- September 21, 2015 at 11:56 PM
- Kim Heggins said...
Welcome home from your holiday....hope you had a wonderful time while you were gone.
This card is just too sweet and a fabulous case of Monika's sweet card.
- September 22, 2015 at 3:11 AM
- Donna Ellis said...
Great technique idea! Love your background and such darling little elephants!
- September 22, 2015 at 4:11 AM
- aussie aNNie said...
Gorgeous card, love the elephants around the heart, great card.x
- September 22, 2015 at 5:38 AM
- Marlene Atkinson said...
A beautiful card. thank you for sharing with us at Crafty Creations challenge. Marlene DT
- September 22, 2015 at 6:11 PM
- crafty-stamper said...
Beautiful CAS card love the cute little elephants and stencilled background
Carol x
- September 23, 2015 at 12:04 AM
- Shaz in Oz.CalligraphyCards said...
Oh Pia I really love the "heffalumps" family name for elephants :D what a great card.
Thanks so much for popping over.
Shaz in Oz.x
{Shaz in Oz – Calligraphy Cards}
- September 23, 2015 at 5:00 AM
- Loz said...
This is So Cute Pia..Loz
- September 23, 2015 at 12:34 PM
- Sue B said...
Oh this is very sweet Pia.. such a clever design! I love those adorable ellies in the patterned paper… and the wonderful background shows off the fab heart perfectly! :-)
Hope you are keeping well
Big hugs, Sue B xx
- September 23, 2015 at 5:20 PM
- Michelle said...
This looks absolutely stunning Pia - love the background, those elephants and little sequins - Michelle x
- September 23, 2015 at 5:59 PM
- Skye said...
Super sweet card. Great job of CASEing. Lovely design. Love your sweet little elephants
- September 24, 2015 at 7:43 AM
- sandie said...
I love the stamping on DSP, that never enters my mind!! Must go and check out Monika's now xx
- September 24, 2015 at 6:35 PM
- Tammy said...
Fabulous job CASEing Monika's card Pia! I love the paper pieced elephants and your gorgeous stenciled background!
Tammy x
- September 24, 2015 at 11:00 PM
- *Vicki* said...
Awe!! I adore the sweet elephants on your design Pia!! Wonderful job on Monika's CASE!! :) Love the background and how you've done it!!
- September 25, 2015 at 3:57 AM
- Mimi said...
Just hopped across blogland's ocean to see what you're up to. .. great things! Marvelous job CASEing Monika's card... you took all the details and totally made it your own! You are so talented!
- September 25, 2015 at 2:51 PM
- Mimi said...
Just hopped across blogland's ocean to see what you're up to. .. great things! Marvelous job CASEing Monika's card... you took all the details and totally made it your own! You are so talented!
- September 25, 2015 at 2:52 PM
- Pat K said...
- September 25, 2015 at 4:41 PM


text:
Landmark Roofing is founded on the experience and savings of one hard-working roofer. Today, Landmark is a successful, widely respected Puget Sound home contractor that remains a family-owned business driven by a strong work ethic and pride in a job well done. Here is how we work
Unlike larger companies, we're an owner-operated company. We find our clients appreciate the availability of the owner, as well as the prompt written estimate, the no-pressure free inspections and knowing the work is performed by actual Landmark employees rather than subcontractors.
Contact Landmark today at 855-908-7663,email@example.com, or via our contact page to get started on your next project!


text:
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Black and White Sunday: Two Handsome Dudes
14 comments:
I had forgotten that Jimmy has that lightening bolt on his chest....He's usually in motion, so it's hard to see :)ReplyDelete
Definitely!!! enjoy your Sunday. Golden Woofs, SUGARReplyDelete
That's a very nice portrait! Looking good guys!ReplyDelete
Those are handsome dudes!!ReplyDelete
They are too cute!ReplyDelete
Black and white, sepia, colour....they are handsome doodz!ReplyDelete
You got that right :) And they are also very cute!ReplyDelete
Two VERY handsome dudes :)ReplyDelete
Two handsome dudes indeed!!!ReplyDelete
They're too handsome!ReplyDelete
Handsome gentsReplyDelete
Indeed handsome!ReplyDelete
Look at those faces!!! Sending showers of kisses their way!!! <3ReplyDelete
Such handsome fellas! I love how they are posing here!ReplyDelete
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)


text:
Blogging is one of the easiest ways to make money online. It is more than just posting articles or sharing stuff you have interest in. If your contents are useful and set to be SEO friendly, you can gain quick flow of visitors' traffic. It is a good sign to tell Google that you have valuable source of information. Your website is much easier to get indexed and reach the strategic position on SERP. It means your site is healthy and ready to be monetized.
Telling others that you have a great blog with valuable contents to read is just the start. It is promotion effort to bring decent traffic in. To be able to start earning passive income, you should do monetizing. The most common method used by bloggers is signing up Google AdSense, a giant Ad network in the globe. In this case, you make partnership with Google by letting you display advertisements on your web page. You will receive certain percent of commission if an Ad is clicked by the visitors. The number of money to earn depends on your optimization strategy. Higher traffic means more potential clicks. Just remember that this miracle won't happen overnight. You even need to wait for 6 month to get your blog qualified for participating in AdSense.
It takes time to successfully earn potential income from the traditional method of AdSense. You are able to make more with the following additional tricks:
- Direct advertisement – letting you break the limitation to place ads and earn 100% commission from the advertisers.
- Affiliate advertisement – earning commission by helping supplies make sales.
- Paid reviews – getting paid by writing product reviews on your blog
- Referral income – joining pay per referral program and referring your readers to take a part.
- Create and sell eBooks – arranging useful information on a topic in an eBook and earning decent income from the selling online.
- Provide services – utilizing your skill to offer professional services to your readers.
Google does not approve all kinds of website to be part of its AdSense program. There are some requirements enclosed in Google's TOS (Terms of Services). The strict rules make many new applicants get rejected and the existing ones are suddenly banned from the program. Usually, it happens when there is a problem on the site or the owner does not pay attention to the Google's TOS. Fortunately, there are still more methods available to monetize the blog and earn potential passive income. You can consider about them when fixing the problem with Google AdSense.


text:
Self service does not create abundance,
it is fleeting and ultimately constricting.
It is the perception you exist
in isolation to all things.
You are conscious awareness.
In this remembrance,
through contribution and generosity
to others,
is the self realization you are
connected to everything and everyone.
In service to others you serve yourself,
in honouring others you honour yourself,
in loving others,
you LOVE the immensity of all you are
© Edel O'Mahony


text:
Friday, December 2, 2011
***Deck The Halls***Swirlydoos December SGC***TCR #87
Yes, my Swirly Goddess's, it is time for the last SGC of the year. And because I know that many of you will be very busy this holiday season, I am going to make it easy for you!
Every holiday season the air resonates with the sounds of the season. Christmas music, Holiday tunes, some funny (grandma got run over by a reindeer) some beautiful ("O Holy Night") and some traditional (White Christmas). There are many many songs out there...Soooo, for your December SGC I want you to choose a song, and make the title your Journaling Headliner!! Whatever song you want. This challenge is open to everyone who has Swirlydoos kit contents, so come and join in on the fun.
Here are the simple rules.
* You can create anything you want. A layout, a card, a tag,
an altered project. What ever you want.
*I would like you to use at least 50% Swirly stuff
*Use a song for your title or journaling
*Post to your blog or personal gallery and encourage others to join in. Link back to
*Upload your project to the gallery labeled "Sing a Holiday Song SGC" after your title
*Well, here's the twist (optional) Use an altered photo. This will give you an extra vote.
Have your projects posted to the gallery by December 30th. There will be a vote by the design team, and the winner will win a Gift Certificate from the Swirly Store!! The winner will be announced between Dec 30th and January 5th.
Here is my SGC example.
I also tried to adhere to the Color Room Palette #87, but added a little green. Leave it to me to deviate from my original plan!
8 comments:
- Elisabeth said...
What a fun challenge and what a GREAT LO! I hope my kit will arrive soon to join in.
- December 3, 2011 at 1:47 AM
- Lizzyc said...
a beautiful layout.. gorgeous colors anyway!!
- December 3, 2011 at 5:40 AM
- GLENDA BROOKS said...
- December 3, 2011 at 6:29 AM
- Shona said...
gorgeous Lisa and great work with that palette :)
- December 3, 2011 at 2:57 PM
- Denise said...
Omgosh girl this is so fabulous!! Gorgeous colors..design..you always knock my socks off!
- December 3, 2011 at 7:54 PM
- Stephanie said...
Absolutely beautiful LO! I love the colors and design! I love how you added the deer at the bottom, so cool!!
- December 4, 2011 at 8:16 AM
- sixofone said...
Gorgeous brilliant fantastic LO
- December 6, 2011 at 4:15 AM
- Felicity said...
Hello :) Just wanted to pop by and say THANK YOU for stopping by my blog and your kind kind words.
oooh I love that page too.. its just gorgeous.
- December 7, 2011 at 11:38 PM
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text:
The Smart Guys analyze the legal implications of Z visa holders the day after the immigration bill would take effect.
HH: Joined now by the Smart Guys. From Chapman University Law School, Professor John Eastman, from Duke University Law School, Professor Erwin Chemerinsky, John from the right, Erwin from the left, welcome, gentlemen. I have a very basic question as we go about this immigration reform. First, let's get your reactions to it, Erwin Chemerinsky, the draft bill.
EC: I think it's a good compromise. I think any solution is going to need to be a compromise. They weren't able to do so last session of Congress. I'm thrilled to see that the Senate's been able to work something out with the White House that might have a chance of going through.
HH: John Eastman?
JE: I think it's a terrible bill. I think it's ten times worse than the '86 amnesty provisions, which are nearly identical to the path to citizenship provisions in this bill. The reason I think it's terrible is the predictions, the dire predictions, the world is going to end predictions that were made back in 1986 actually turned out to be true. It was said at the time that if you find a path to legalization for people that had come here illegally, it would be an invitation for an even more massive illegal migration in subsequent years. And over the last twenty years, an additional twelve to twenty million people have taken advantage of that hope, that in fact we would be forced to give another amnesty. And we ought not to be stupid enough to think that this one won't be an invitation to the next fifty million.
HH: Now Erwin, you want to respond to that?
EC: I do. The reality is people who are from more disadvantaged countries are going to come here illegally, in any way they can, whether amnesty is granted or amnesty is not granted. The reality is there is no evidence that more people will come here with amnesty than without amnesty. They're going to come if they can. It's to their advantage.
JE: That's not true. There is great evidence that if you enforce, for example, in the interior, with employer sanctions, the job market dries up, and the draw that is right now being the huge draw for illegal immigration, goes away. And even a couple of showcase employer raids have created huge disruptions in the incentive structure. The problem is that we have never tried an enforcement policy that actually works. And this has now become a much bigger issue than simply blocking illegal immigration for the millions and millions of people who would prefer to be in the United States rather than their own countries. We have created a border that is a sieve for terrorists, and they know that they don't need to fly into the ports where high security is. They can just walk across our border. And there are thousands of people that have done so, ready to commit an act of terrorism in the United States. We have got to protect our sovereignty here if we're going to survive. And this bill is exactly the wrong thing to do.
HH: Erwin, go ahead.
EC: John, you just shifted position. We were starting to talk about will amnesty draw more people here than we would have trying to come here without that. And your response was we need to impose sanctions on employers, and we need to enforce the border. I think all of that is true, but that doesn't go to the question whether amnesty is likely to bring more people here. I think your point is exactly why amnesty won't make any difference in that regard. Those who can come here, those who want to come here will do so whether amnesty is granted now or not.
HH: There have been five articles by the San Antonio Express News beginning Sunday through today on the passage into the country, and attempted passage into the country of illegal aliens from countries of special concern. These are Middle Eastern countries as well as some countries in Central Asia, and other countries with jihadist networks. It is estimated in this article that between 40,000 and 60,000 such illegals have entered the country in the last years since 9/11, only 5,700 stopped, about half at the Canada border, half at the Mexico border. My question is, as a matter of Constitutional law, Erwin Chemerinsky, could this new legislation distinguish between illegal aliens in the country from Spanish speaking countries, and those from countries of special interest, denying the latter the regularization that the former would receive?
EC: In all likelihood, yes. Congress has always distinguished, in terms of immigration policy, based on the country of origin, allowing individuals from one country, but not from another. So I think Congress' plenary power of immigration could probably do that. Now what makes this different and a little bit more tricky is what we'd be distinguishing them on the bases of could be ethnicity, and so there could be a challenge. But my bottom line is yes, I think Congress could do that if it wanted to.
HH: Almost certainly ethnicity, and possibly religion, John Eastman. Do you agree with Erwin's analysis?
JE: You know, I have to think about the religion. To my knowledge, the Court hasn't addressed that issue. But certainly national origin, and probably ethnicity, I do agree with Erwin.
HH: And given that, does it make sense to you, John Eastman, to make such a distinction between what is by and large an economic, though there are some criminal elements in the Spanish speaking, it's a 90-10 versus a population of illegals from these jihadist countries, which is also probably 90-10, but which we can't really absorb even any terrorists from. What do you make of that distinction?
JE: Well, I think the distinction on the homeland security front is important. But I would not accept the distinction for others as well. One of the problems we're facing with Spanish speaking immigrants, for example, is I think this is one of the first times in history where access to a wealthy country by a relatively poor country has been so easy, and the lack of assimilation that's occurring because of the facility of cross-border movement, we're actually discouraging assimilation, and making it harder to keep our country…so I would not draw that distinction as a matter of policy. I would not allow for an amnesty provision on either front. But I think the distinction is Constitutional.
HH: Erwin Chemerinsky, there is provision in the law, it's very difficult to find, for judgments about whether or not people are gang members, even without conviction of any kind of criminal offense, or positive proof of gang membership, sort of a gut check. Do you find troubling that provision?
EC: Yes. Now again, we're not talking about here the kind of due process that's required in order to convict somebody for being a gang member. What we're talking about here is a place where people have no Constitutional rights when it comes to becoming a citizen. On the other hand, I would never want it to be that mere suspicion or hints of association could be a matter of denying somebody a benefit. So I'd want to know what kind of evidence and procedures are there, and I'd want to make sure that it's fair. It doesn't have to be a full trial, but it has to be a fair procedure.
HH: But is that a policy or a Constitutional issue with you?
EC: I'm sure it's a policy issue. I think it's hard to make anything a Constitutional issue, because individuals don't have a right under the Constitution to get amnesty, and I think Congress is going to have broad latitude to condition the amnesty as it chooses to do so.
HH: John Eastman, could the Congress condition the granting of Z visas on the renunciation of the American citizenship of the children of the Z immigrant holders?
JE: Well, if they accept my position on birth right citizenship, then yes, because they're not renouncing…
HH: If they didn't….
JE: Yeah, then I think that's problematic. Boy, that one I've got to think through, Hugh. So that may well fun afoul of the unconstitutional conditions doctrine. If the children have a Constitutional right based on birth to be citizens, to say that we're only going to extend this government program to you if you renounce…if you not take only actions for yourselves, but also renounce the citizenship that your…
HH: How about if you agree not to have children when you're in the country, and then violate that agreement as a condition of your entrance?
JE: Yeah, you know, that's a tough call. You know, you're talking about looking at existing precedent. You're talking about the right to have children being pre-fundamental. And to say that we have to condition that right away as a condition on the amnesty…
HH: We'll come back.
– – – –
HH: Erwin, when we went to break, I was talking with John about what could and could not be a condition upon Z visa recipients. Your reaction to that conversation?
EC: Well, I think it's clear that you can't say to somebody that they can be admitted to this country only on a promise they won't have children. There's a fundamental right to procreate. Likewise, you can't condition somebody's entry into the country, or their ability to get citizenship on their renouncing the citizenship that the Constitution gives to their children. This is, as John said, an unconstitutional condition, a benefit, even one the government doesn't have to grant, can't be conditioned on somebody giving up their Constitutional rights.
HH: While I agree with that once they're here, and obviously once the child is born, why not make it a condition of deportation if you become pregnant? Would that be okay?
EC: No. I think no court in the country would uphold that, because then what you're saying to somebody is that you only get to stay in the country if you give up the fundamental right to have children. Not only do I think it's unconstitutional, it's inhumane, and would be horrible in terms of public relations to say to people that you're going to take away their ability to have children in order to be able to say in the country? Surely you don't want that to be the message we send to the world.
HH: John Eastman?
JE: Let me switch it. We do have a policy of not granting visitor visas, or student visas, to women who are pregnant, or late term in their pregnancy, so that the child isn't born here, and we create citizens by the view of birth right citizenship that many hold to the Constitution. But I think, you know, I'm leaning toward Erwin on this one, Hugh. I think the reverse of that is not equally true.
HH: No, I agree with all that. I just wanted it out there for people to read. Now what I want to get to is what due process rights are going to attach to Z visa holders? Because this is the rub. We were talking earlier with Senator Kyl and Michael Chertoff on this program, and they both agreed that the triggers might be long in being pulled, and they're going to be walking around with probationary non-sort of pre-cursor Z visas. Under what circumstances can those be pulled once they're given, Erwin, and someone has status in this country? Do they have any rights to due process with that probationary Z visa?
EC: The simple answer is no. They would have the right to due process that the statute gives them. Now I've oversimplified a little bit, because if somebody has an expectation once they're here, then there is a liberty interest, and there has to be some due process given. It can't be a summary deportation, but it's not a full in-court hearing, either.
HH: John, did you hear that trap door just opening?
JE: I did…
HH: Yeah, oh boy did I hear that.
JE: Oh, boy, and this is the problem with what Senator Kyl and others have signed onto, that this was a hot issue fifteen, twenty years ago. When I give a property interest, or something that looks like a property interest, an entitlement, and I define the scope of this entitlement by a statute that includes certain limited due process protections, not the full set of protections that we would give to traditional property before I take it away from you, the Court said, severed the property interest that was granted by the statute from the procedures that went along with it, and now created a property interest standing alone, and said all of the due process protections of the 5th Amendment or the 14th Amendment apply. And that means that once you gave an interest to these people, the limited Z visa or what have you, the Court would determine what process was due, not the statute.
HH: And Erwin, is that an appropriate statement of the law?
EC: Yes, except I don't understand why you're afraid of due process. We're not talking about, all of us agree we're not talking about a court trial. We're talking about a deportation hearing.
HH: Erwin, because there are 20 million of them.
EC: But we're not needing to deport 20 million of them.
HH: No, but if the triggers never get pulled, and people start saying okay, it didn't work, we don't have border patrol, we don't have the fence, we can't stop it, it is the magnet, we're going to have to send people home, if that day ever comes, I don't think we can send anyone with a probationary visa home, absent a procedure.
EC: But what you're saying is that the procedure would be so onerous as this is undesirable. And I'm saying I don't understand why you can't have what's usually a very simple procedure in these instances. We're not talking about an elaborate, in-court trial.
HH: Right now, all you have to do if you find an illegal alien, if they're from Mexico, is drive them to the border and put them on the other side, right?
EC: Well, if you've established that they're undocumented, sure.
HH: Yeah. And so, with a Z visa, you can't do that anymore. Again, I'll ask you both to hang on. I think this is very important, because the day this bill passes, the day it passes, probationary precursor visas go out to up to 20 million people. And the impact on those people's status is it makes them instantly employable, and they cannot be deported in the terms of the law.
– – – –
HH: And now we get down to brass tacks. What happens the day after the bill passes? And gentlemen, the triggers are in the bill, but section 601, treatment of applicants, reads this way. I want to make sure you hear it. "An alien who files application for Z non-immigrant status shall upon submission of any evidence required under paragraphs F and G, and after the Secretary has conducted appropriate background checks to include name and fingerprint checks, that have not by the end of the next business day produced information rendering the applicant ineligible, shall be A) granted probationary benefits in the form of employment authorization pending final adjudication of the alien's application, B) may, in the Secretary's discretion receive advance permission to reenter the United States, C) may not be detained for immigration purposes determined inadmissible or deportable, or removed pending final adjudication of the alien's application, unless the alien is determined to be ineligible for Z non-immigration status." Erwin, what rights does that endow upon, give to the Z applicant?
EC: I think it gives them exactly the rights that you've described, and I think it would require some form of due process before taking that status away.
HH: And what would that look like to you? What would you argue under a Matthews V. Eldridge test? That's a huge entitlement. That's a big deal, Erwin. You can't just say we don't think you're here.
EC: Well, you're right. You can't just say it arbitrarily, and I think that's a good thing. And you're also right in terms of what you referred to as the leading Supreme Court case, Matthews V. Eldridge, says that in deciding what procedures are requires, a court's to balance the importance of the interest of the individual, the ability of hearings to lead to more accurate decisions, and also the government's interest, including administrative efficiency. I think courts would approve some form of deportation hearing that is relatively minimal in terms of procedure, but there has to be some procedure, and I think that's a good thing, not a bad thing.
HH: So John Eastman, am I write in concluding that today, millions of illegal aliens in this country who are not owed a hearing, simply not owed a hearing, if we want to pick them up, and we drive them back, we catch them at the border, we take them back over the border, would after this be owed a hearing?
JE: Yes, and the scope of the hearing would not need to be a full-fledged trial that we have for other kind of loss of interest under the Constitution. But it would not be defined by what the statute sets out with minimal things. It will be defined by the courts, and it will be balanced, as Erwin has said, by the relative weight to be given to the interest, and the government's need in efficiency. And the courts have opened the door for things like well, immigration law and eligibility is a very complicated thing. Will the courts require that in order for there to be fair due process, then in fact every one of these Z visa holders be afforded an attorney paid for by taxpayers before they can be deported? That's certainly within the realm of possibility. Will there be a right to an appeal? And a stay of the lower court's judgment before the appeal, or the hearing officer's judgment before the appeal runs, given how significant the weight is if they're going to be returned to a home country that is poor, and may be lots of claims of political persecution for having come here in the first place, or what have you. All of these things will now be decided by the courts for everyone, and it will be decided the day after this legislation takes effect. And you're absolutely right, Hugh, to focus on it. It won't wait until those so-called trigger events happen. This begins prior to the triggers, and will stay in place whether the triggers ever materialize or not.
HH: And I'm not trying to be alarmist, Erwin. I just think as expecting good lawyers, as the community of lawyers are on behalf of people not in the country legally over the years have become, they will seize on 601H, subparagraphs 1C, and say they have to be determined to be ineligible for Z non-immigrant status. We can't even make that conclusion until the regulations for Z non-immigrant status are produced and ratified by a court. And so I think the entire illegal population becomes non-deportable the day after the law passes for a long period of time.
EC: I don't think that's right at all. In fact, courts have always said for non-citizens, there is the ability to deport without the need for full trial procedures. At the very least, you could use deportation procedures already in existence. I think what you're doing is trying to use a procedural argument to hide the substantive disagreement. Where we really disagree is substantively. Is it a good thing to give some form of amnesty to those who are illegally in the United States? I would say yes, you would say no. If one believes yes, then it's easy to create procedures that aren't burdensome to do so. I don't think our disagreement is really over procedures. It's over substance.
HH: John Eastman?
JE: You know, at bottom, that's right. This is a fundamental disagreement about the substance. But it's the procedure that is going to decide the substantive question, that it's going to so color the substantive question that we will have, in fact, granted amnesty on what's supposed to be a compromise bill where that remains an open question, depending on whether the triggers get hit.
HH: Let me ask you both as well about a new provision that is going to kick in that says it's going to be illegal to defraud in any way an illegal alien when it comes to their practice standards, et cetera. It's section 1545. "Any person who knowingly executes a scheme in connection with any matter that is authorized by the federal immigration laws to defraud any person, or obtain or receive money, or anything else of value from any person by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations or promises, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 15 years, or both." This is a little inside baseball. Doesn't this put a new burden on immigration clinics operated by law schools around the country, Erwin?
EC: No, I don't think so, because there's an intent requirement for fraud, and I'm against fraud, and the reality is that especially undocumented aliens are very vulnerable, and this is just trying to protect them. I don't think law school clinics have anything to worry about.
HH: Not just fraud, though. It says promises. It says promises or encouragements, John Eastman. You're soon going to have to supervise one of these clinics. Does that alarm you at all?
JE: If the letter of it were applied as it's written, then yes. But one of the problems with the '86 bill, with the mid-90's bills, is that all the enforcement things that go along, whether they're in favor of the immigrant or in favor of enforcement, tend not to come out as written, and as expected.
HH: Erwin Chemerinsky, John Eastman, fascinating speculations. Thanks to the Smart Guys. We'll be talking a lot about this bill once the amendments are in.
End of interview.


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The Sunday Times of London is reporting that 'Rivals fear Israel's Binyamin Netanyahu is plotting nuclear strike on Iran.'
Netanyahu thinks ballistic missiles carrying tactical nuclear warheads will be necessary to take out Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom. The site is buried deep beneath a mountain.
Something is Happening. People are Drawing Lines.
And We've Got It Covered.
But we can't do it without you. Please support our Winter Campaign.
Western sources say Israel firing a Jericho-3 missile carrying a tactical nuclear warhead would be "sufficient to 'bury' the plant." The United States is the only nation that has used nuclear weapons thus far.
From The Sunday Times:
Well aware of the hostile international response to even the suggestion of a nuclear attack, the option is not being debated publicly. But last week it was referred to indirectly by Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party and leader of the opposition.
For some time Mr Mofaz, 64, a former defense minister and one of the few Israeli politicians privy to the country's nuclear secrets, has believed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is playing a dangerous game.
Mr Mofaz shocked many Israelis last week when during a press conference he unveiled a poster showing a red mushroom cloud with the slogan: "Bibi will endanger Israel."
Most Israelis assumed the poster referred to the Iranian threat. But its message may have been more subtle, hinting at an argument that Mr Mofaz cannot articulate in public: that he believes Mr Netanyahu could be considering a nuclear option.
Mr Netanyahu signaled in a television interview last week that he was prepared to strike Iran without the support of the US. "When David Ben-Gurion declared the foundation of the state of Israel, was it done with American approval?" he asked.
# # #


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VINTAGE 1940s ETERNA JUMBO MILITARY STYLE
Sold Out!
Here's a 1940's Eterna jumbo tropical gilt dial manual military style watch in excellent condition.
Check out the black gilt dial that is trending to chocolate.
This is an amazingly sharp 36mm staybrite all steel case, 44mm from lug to lug.
Powered by an 853 caliber manual movement that is freshly serviced and keeping excellent time.
These Eternas are a mainstay for military collectors.


text: If someone wants 304 material would they even know if it was 303?? I wonder what the differanc ewould be? Also i dont think there would be any negative effects using 303 instead of 304. The application is for liquids water and even possibly milk inside stainless type vessels i am going to be constructing. Im already scared to machine 304 sounds purely evil... (thats form reading the previous posts regarding that material. Any tips on machining large holes in 5 inch stainless 304 tubing would be appreciated. Mike


text:
Coast to coast '08Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 | No Comments »
Obama globe trottersTuesday, August 5th, 2008 | 1 Comment »
I don't even know if Barack Obama plays Basketball, but these posters are really nice. They are just some of the many currently featured on GoTellMama. I believe that they were created by Ray Noland (also known as CRO). There are some related street shots inside.
Welcome to The Art of Obama - where the art is political and updated daily. Take a look around, leave some comments, or send us your art and photos.
black and white canvas cartoon chalk change charcoal collage color comic dan lacey download drawing food free graffiti homemade hope ink logo Manifest Hope mixed media mural music nude Obama oil paint painting pancake paper pen pencil photo portrait poster print reader submission red white and blue screen print sculpture shepard fairey silly stencil sticker t-shirt tag unicorn vector video watercolor
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text:
The megalomaniacal dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, was born today either in 1982, 1983, or 1984, depending on whether you take North Korean, South Korean, or American records as the most reliable.
Kim's aunt, who is living in exile in the United States, says it was 1984,
They can reveal, for example, that Kim Jong Un was born in 1984 – not 1982 or 1983, as has been widely believed. The reason they're certain? It was the same year that their first son was born. "He and my son were playmates from birth. I changed both of their diapers", Ko said with a laugh.
Kim likes to celebrate with extravagant public celebrations, like basketball games, using money that could feed the starving populace. Here's Dennis Rodman singing "Happy Birthday" to him in 2014:
Also on this day a few years before Kim's birth, China's long-time diplomat and official Zhou En-lai, who was instrumental in shepherding China's opening with the United States, died in 1976. Zhou served as Premier of the PRC from its founding until the day of his death. He negotiated and did rice wine shots with Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon.


text:
Manuel Candamo
This article may be expanded with text translated from the corresponding article in español. (June 2012) Click [show] for important translation instructions.
|Manuel González de Candamo e Iriarte
|President of the Provisional Government Junta of Peru
|In office
March 20, 1895 – September 8, 1895
|Preceded by
|Andrés Avelino Cáceres
|Succeeded by
|Nicolás de Piérola
|30th President of Peru
|In office
September 8, 1903 – May 7, 1904
|Preceded by
|Eduardo López de Romaña
|Succeeded by
|Serapio Calderón
|Personal details
July 14, 1841
Lima, Peru
|May 7, 1904
(aged 62)
Arequipa, Peru
|Political party
|Civilista Party
|Teresa Álvarez-Calderón
Manuel González de Candamo e Iriarte (14 July 1841 – May 7, 1904) was President of Peru from September 8, 1903 until May 7, the following year, when he died in office.
Early life and family
Born in a wealthy family (Manuel was the son of Pedro Español González de Candamo y Astorga (Puerto de Valparaiso, Chile, 30 June 1799 - Lima, 22 January 1866), Peruvian Ambassador - then the richest man in Peru -, and wife (1825) María de las Mercedes Iriarte y Odria[1]); paternal grandson of Alfonso González de Candamo y Prieto (born in Asturias the son of Gaspar González de Candamo and wife Eulalia Prieto) and wife Petronila de Astorga y Urizar (born in Valparaiso) and maternal grandson of Pedro Ignacio Iriarte y Velasco-Patiño, Mine owner from Huancayo, who bought the Hacienda Lobatón in 1819 and half of the Hacienda Cónsac, and wife Paula Odria y Granados, daughter of the owners of Hacienda Rumichaca Juan Ignacio Odria and wife Manuela Granados, sister of Marcelo Granados (La Asunción de Mito, 1758 - ?), Governor of La Trinidad de Huancayo.
Manuel Candamo spend his early years in the "Colegio de Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe". After graduating from High School, he was accepted in the National University of San Marcos, where he obtained a bachelor's degree on Jurisprudence.
Early political career
Pezet and the Chinchan Islands War
In 1863, Cándamo started to work for "El Comercio", one of the oldest newspapers in the capital. From there, he was a harsh critic of President Juan Antonio Pezet and the "Vivanco-Pareja Treaty", specifically for the way of how the government was handling the diplomatic crisis with Spain. For his actions, he was exiled to Chile, returning only after Mariano Ignacio Prado's successfully launched a coup against Pezet.
After the revolution, he was an active supporter of Prado during the Chincha Islands War. When the Peruvian Congress refused to recognize Prado's government, Cándamo traveled to Chile as part of the Peruvian diplomatic mission. He did not stay on Chile, and left that country for Europe and Asia.
Civilista Party
Manuel Cándamo, together with Manuel Pardo, was among the founding members of the Civilista Party. The party itself achieved public notoriety for being the first organized political party in Peru, and because it was also the first one to be composed primarily of civilians. During this period, Cándamo successfully started once again his political career and several economic businesses.
War of the Pacific and Reconstruction
After the collapse of the Peruvian Southern Armies and the imminent invasion of Lima, Cándamo took part in the defense of the city, fighting in the Battles of San Juan and Miraflores. When the city is occupied by the Chilean Army, Cándamo and several other prominent politicians are deported to Chile due to their opposition to any peace proposal that involved ceding Tarapacá, Tacna and Arica to the Chileans.
Candamo returned to Peru after the Treaty of Ancón was signed and the war over, and is once again deported for his opposition to President Miguel Iglesias and support to Andrés Avelino Cáceres. Once Iglesias is overthrown and Cáceres is in power, Candamo was elected to the Senate, reaching its presidency in 1888, 1890 and 1892.
Later political career
President of the Junta
A member of the Civilista Party, Candamo served as mayor of Lima. After Andrés Avelino Cáceres was forced to resign from the Presidency in 1894, Candamo was selected to head a "Provisional Government Junta" and to call for new elections. Nicolás de Piérola, allied with the Civilista Party, won the election.
President of the Senate
During the administion of Eduardo López de Romaña, he was elected President of the Peruvian Senate. This was done after the Civilista and Democratic parties reached a compromise and divided their political influence in the government.
For the Election of 1903, Cándamo was regarded as a moderate candidate and the more trusted political figure in the Civilista Party. After being elected President, Cándamo became ill and died in office. He was married to Teresa Alvarez-Calderón.
Following a brief interim government headed by Serapio Calderón, Cándamo was succeeded by his foreign minister José Pardo.
Personal life
Manuel Candamo married Teresa Álvarez-Calderón, and had two daughters. One of them, Teresa De La Cruz, founded the convent Canonesas de La Cruz, and was given the title of Servant of God in 1981 by the Catholic Church, which means her life is being studied in order to eventually grant her the title of Saint.
- Burke's Landed Gentry
- Burke's Royal Families of the World, Europe and Latin America
- Haciendas y Pueblos de Lima, Historia del Valle del Rimac
- http://heirsofeurope.blogspot.pt/search/label/Mountbatten
|Political offices
|Preceded by
Andrés Avelino Cáceres
|Interim President of Peru
|Succeeded by
Nicolás de Piérola
|Preceded by
Eduardo López de Romaña
|President of Peru
1903 – 1904
|Succeeded by
Serapio Calderón


text:
Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations: Opinions, Facts, and Evidence
The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis
Occasional Papers: Volume 2, Number 2, Jan. '03
Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations:
Opinions, Facts, and Evidence
Jack Davis
Sherman Kent Center
This memorandum on tensions in analyst-policymaker relations is occasioned by recent media accounts of DOD-Intelligence Community differences over the extent of Iraqi-al Qa'ida ties. Similar patterns of tension have existed over the decades. The following conclusions could have been crafted about Vietnam War issues in the 1960s, Soviet strategic intentions in the 1970s, or Central American insurgencies in the 1980s.
- Tension over policymaker criticism of intelligence performance on hot-button issues is normal. Policymakers believe criticism of what they see as inadequate analysis is part of their job description, especially when they conclude that Directorate of Intelligence assessments complicate their action agendas. On their part, analysts find it difficult to distinguish between bona fide tradecraft criticism and complaints generated by the politics of policymaking.
- The intensity and political content of policymaker criticism, and thus the analysts' pain, can vary considerably. Since politics and policymaking are essentially inseparable and analysts have no alternative market for their wares, they must learn to live with and manage recurring tensions as best they can.
- One key to effective management is to take seriously the analytic elements of criticism. A tightening of tradecraft standards would help take off the table the issue of whether analysts have curbed their own cognitive and policy biases in assessing ambiguous evidence. For example, analysts could pay greater attention to critical evaluation of the gaps in information that often underlie disputed judgments. If extended tradecraft efforts reinforce previous judgments, analysts are professionally bound to stand by them.
- The analysts' pain is magnified when colleagues levy charges of "unprofessional analysis" and "politicization" against attempts to address policymaker concerns through more deliberate tradecraft or Alternative Analysis. Effective institutional response on contentious issues requires teamwork—not turf warfare. In particular, analysts must use charges of politicization responsibly—against distortions of facts and judgments that result in a policy bias, whether politically motivated or generated by conspicuously poor tradecraft.
- Leadership can ease tensions with policy officials and among analysts by articulating robust corporate tradecraft responses for disputes over interpretation of ambiguous evidence. After 50 years of recurring clashes of policymaker-analyst values and egos, ample "best practices" are there to be codified.
Politics and Policymaking
Over the decades, influential policymakers, including those who have expressed general satisfaction with DI analytic support, have been critical of DI performance on individual issues central to their policy agendas. As a rule, the criticism reflects some mixture of the hardball politics of policymaking and pointed tradecraft issues.
Four assumptions about the political roots of analyst-policymaker tensions generally condition this paper's recommendations to analysts for managing resulting tensions in the relationship.
- In the American system, government and politics are all but synonymous, and politics are largely characterized by competing personalities and agendas.
- Thus, the heavy presence of politics and personalities in the national security policymaking process is not only unavoidable but also as American as apple pie.
- Joining in the policymaking process can be uncomfortable for analysts, who work to minimize, and even deny the existence of, any impact on intelligence assessments of their own political preferences and personalities. And engagement can be painful when policy officials step up the criticism and make it public.
- But engagement is nonetheless essential, since analysts have the professional charge not only for maintaining analytic integrity but also for ensuring the access and credibility necessary to provide distinctive value-added to policy clients.
In short, analysts gain little by decrying the legitimacy of the political dimension of policymaking. Their best course of action is to work to take complaints about tradecraft matters off the table and hope this exposes, and eases, any politically based pressures.
Defining The Tradecraft Dimension of the Problem
Former DCI James Schlesinger (among others) once observed that: Every American is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts. A sound enough explanation of analyst-policymaker relations, as far as it goes.
On issues central to their agendas, well-informed policymakers often gain insights from intelligence analysts' well-argued estimative judgments. As a rule, though, they insist on being the national security analysts of last resort when it comes to matters that are uncertain in the sense of being unknowable (what Saddam will do if…). Analysts are well advised to accept their clients' insistence on rendering the final judgment on complex substantive issues as a proper responsibility at their pay grade.
- Regarding opinions, on more than one occasion, an official has reminded an analyst that if an estimative judgment in a policy assessment proves wrong or otherwise unhelpful, the President will call the policymaker on the carpet, not the intelligence producer.
In contrast, only rarely does a policymaker claim the right, as national security analyst, to manipulate matters knowable and known (what Saddam said on television yesterday).
- Regarding facts, a prominent official once observed that policymakers are like surgeons. They don't last long if they ignore what they see once they cut the patient open.
But what about differences over the meaning and adequacy of the facts; that is, about the quality of the evidence? Analyst-policymaker disputes are usually most acute in interpreting the evidence about matters that are knowable but not fully known to either intelligence or policy professionals (what Saddam has or has not done regarding extending support to al Qa'ida).
- Regarding quality of evidence, former DCI William Casey's admonition to analysts about the Soviet role in international terrorism set forth his standard for keeping a policy-sensitive issue on the table: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In effect, if a development or relationship is plausible, analysts cannot prove a negative to the satisfaction of an official with a mind and agenda of his own.
- In disputes with analysts, policymakers can insist on raising as well as lowering the bar of proof regarding judgments that could have a negative impact on their agendas. Once when an analyst averred that reliable evidence indicated a development that undermined an Administration policy initiative was almost certainly taking place, a policy critic retorted that the analyst "couldn't get a murder-one conviction in an American court with [his] evidence."
The Critics' Analytic Doctrine and Challenges to DI Tradecraft
Part of the analyst-policymaker tension in evaluating evidence reflects a difference in professional attitude toward odds. To an analyst, the judgment that something is unlikely usually means the odds against an estimative interpretation of ongoing events or projection of future developments are roughly three to one. Given such odds, she is ready to move on to the next question.
In contrast, to a policymaker with an agenda to advance, the same starting odds of roughly one in four can make it worthwhile to stay on the case. Moreover, on hot-button issues the official will not overlook the prospect that the analysts' judgment could be off base because they are insufficiently informed about the current state and fluidity of foreign forces at play, or because they do not appreciate the impact on developments of US carrots and sticks, if a policy initiative gathers backing.
The reluctance of policymaker critics to rely on what they see as unhelpful assessments on hot-button issues goes beyond professionally necessary "positive thinking" on their part. Critics also point out the following systemic weaknesses in the analysts' tradecraft. [1]
Since cognitive bias is pervasive, analysts, like all observers, tend to see more quickly and vividly what they expect to see; and, conversely, tend not to see and properly credit information that would undermine their prior judgments. Critics contend that analysts delude themselves if they think they are exempt because of their claims to "objectivity."
Critics made these points in defending requests that analysts take another look at the rate of success of the strategic hamlet program in Vietnam (1960s), or Soviet plans for winning a nuclear war (1970s), or the extent of today's Iraqi-al Qa'ida connections.
- The analysts' phrase "we have no evidence" that X exists is judged particularly unhelpful by those officials dedicated to either blunting the threat or seizing the policy opportunity in question.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz is quoted recently as saying policymaking is not a "court of law." And other critics have noted that analysts rarely admit they have no evidence that X does not exist
- In any case, the analysts' judgment on developments when evidence is ambiguous hardly qualifies as "the truth." Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, in a recent press briefing, went to great length to define the limits of the analysts' opinions in such circumstances.
If you think about it, what comes out of intelligence is not fixed, firm conclusions. What comes out are a speculation, an analysis, probabilities, possibilities, estimates. Best guesses.
- Analyst training and incentives place too much emphasis on "straight line, single outcome" analysis on complex and uncertain issues. Critics say this "make the call" approach is both unhelpful to sound decisionmaking and prone to error.
Assertiveness in the face of uncertainty, according to Wolfowitz, can make estimative analysis into a weapon for one policymaking camp to use against another, whereas tabling alternative interpretations would provide a tool useful to all.
Some may prize the analyst who can come quickly to a crisp conclusion on issues surrounded by uncertainty. But this methodology, the critics note, helps explain the record of analytic failures from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait
- The analysts' main job, according to critics, is to provide deliverables to enable policy analysts to reach sound judgments despite the uncertainty that fogs complex world events. Focus should be on strengths and weaknesses of foreign players, tendencies and motivations, triggers of change and leverage points—not on what critics derisively call the analysts' "opinions."
Remember former DDI Doug MacEachin's scout-coach analogy. The scout's job is to gather and structure information on opponents to help the coach develop the best game plan, and not to predict the final score before the game is played.
- Especially when policy stakes are high, analysts should expend much more effort evaluating what they don't know and why they don't know it. For example, could gaps in analysts' information on potentially harmful developments be caused by Denial and Deception (D&D) operations, or inadequate US collection, or flawed assumptions about which pathways and relationships deserve analytic focus?
The 1998 Missile Commission report charged intelligence analysts with managing collection and analysis to assess critically the alternative explanations for "particular gaps in a list of indicators." In the Commission's view, greater confidence about the non-existence of an indicator can be as important in reaching judgments as finding proof that an indicator does exist.
- Finally, according to the critics, it is the duty of the responsible policy officials to ask probing questions, to insist on critical review of the evidence, to send analysts back to the drawing board for another look.
Secretary Rumsfeld at a recent DOD briefing referred to the importance of engagement and criticism: "…to the extent there's no feedback coming from…a user of intelligence, then one ought not expect that the level of competence…on the part of people supplying the intelligence will be as good…as if there's an effective interaction."
Granted that political overtones often color these criticisms. But in tradecraft terms they represent reasonable standards for policymaking officials to levy on analysts charged with providing distinctive value-added to US policymaking efforts.
Defining Professional and Unprofessional Analysis
The doctrinal basis for responding to policymaker criticism should reflect definitions that set boundaries for the proper role for intelligence analysis. Constructing agreed definitions of complex concepts such as professional and unprofessional analysis is no easy task. Not everything relevant can be included; choices and priorities are arguable and open the gate to the definer's motivated and unconscious biases.
A practical and defensible definition of the professional mission of intelligence analysts posits both sound analytic practice and high potential utility for the policymaking process as equally important standards. Neither objectivity without impact, nor impact without objectivity, meets the standard of the following definition.
The mission of intelligence analysts is to apply in-depth substantive expertise, all-source information, and tough-minded tradecraft to produce assessments that provide distinctive value-added to policy clients' efforts to protect and advance US security interests.
To fulfill this mission, analytic deliverables must be seen by policy officials to have utility as they envision their professional mission, which, in effect, is to posit and enact an Administration's politically colored policy agenda. The analysts who would produce an assessment with high potential for utility to the policymaking process can no more ignore the political context in which their clients operate than they can ignore where the latter are on their learning curves and decision cycles.
To take account of the politics of policymaking is not a license for intelligence professionals, as analysts, to become policymakers, or their speechwriters or spear-carriers. But if an analyst is not close enough to the process to feel the competitive pressures of policymaking, he or she is probably not close enough to produce professionally crafted deliverables that provide distinctive value-added.
Thus, there will always be a danger that analysts, in constructing their written assessments and oral commentary, will introduce a political slant—either deliberately or through sloppy tradecraft. Analysts have done so in the past, and likely will do so from time to time in the future.
A politicized and therefore unprofessional assessment can be defined as an analytic deliverable that reflects either (1) the analyst's motivated effort to distort facts and judgments to support, or oppose, a specific policy, political entity, or general ideology, or (2) a conspicuous, even if unmotivated, disregard for sound tradecraft standards that produces similarly distorted outputs that could affect the policymaking process.
From the policymakers' agenda-oriented perspective it makes little difference whether what they see as analytic bias is motivated or unmotivated. One senior official, for example, complained that every assessment that indicated an Administration initiative was flawed constituted analytic policymaking, since it provided ammunition to Congress to oppose funding the initiative.
So long as criticism of analysis by policymakers reflects a legitimate tradecraft concern, they are not necessarily putting pressure on analysts to engage in unprofessional behavior. Policy officials have the license to change the intelligence question from the one the analysts preferred to address, to ask that assumptions and evidence be examined more thoroughly, and to request customized follow-on assessments. That is part of their job description, whether they are seeking fresh insights or analytic support for their established views.
Thus, it is not unprofessional behavior for analysts, on their own or when requested, to provide alternatives to their unit's bottom-line interpretations of ambiguous evidence of ongoing developments and estimative projections of complex trends—so labeled and vested with appropriate tradecraft for dealing with substantive uncertainty.
Additionally, it is not unprofessional behavior for an analyst to address policy options for dealing with specific threats to and opportunities for an established general policy. The key to sound "action analysis" is for the analyst to identify plausible initiatives and evaluate them in cost-benefit terms, and for the policymakers to choose what course to pursue and bear responsibility for their decisions.
Finally, for a manager to tighten tradecraft standards on a sensitive policy issue before an analyst's assessment goes forward under a corporate DI seal is rarely a signal of unprofessional behavior. Painful to the analyst, yes. Politicization of his assessment, no.
Analysts and managers must be vigilant in identifying, deterring, and decrying unprofessional assessments as herein defined; when engaged in analysis, they are and must remain intelligence professionals, not policy or political aides. But analysts must also take seriously the "cry wolf" danger of levying charges of politicization whenever their authority to control the bottom line of an assessment is abridged.
More to the point, if ever teamwork must prevail over turf warfare and the individual analyst's sense of entitlement to determine what is in the best interests of the Directorate, it is when the analytic corps is dealing with a contentious policy issue. Over the decades, many analysts who have made reasonable tradecraft adjustments to clients' criticism have felt the sting of colleagues' unreasonable charges of politicization.
The Analysts' Response to Policymaker Criticism: Best Practices
The DI has had 50 years of experience at trying simultaneously to maintain professional tradecraft standards and to provide customized analytic support to policymakers on politically sensitive policy issues. A good case can be made that the Directorate collectively has met this challenge well, especially over the past decade.
For the most part though, the Directorate has tended to see and treat each challenge as one of a kind. For their part, individual analysts have tended to see the issue as a challenge affecting only those directly in the crossfire at any given time. Meanwhile, potentially instructive analyst responses over the years were usually closeted in limited-distribution memoranda or in scantily recorded oral exchanges. Remarkably, no advanced course for analysts on managing policy relations was offered over the past decade. (The Kent School offered a well-received pilot for such a course in December 2002). Analysts and team leaders facing the challenge for the first time, then, have had to learn to deal with policymaker criticism of their professional deliverables by at times painful personal experience.
This paper has argued that policymaker criticism of DI analysis on hot-button issues is not an exceptional challenge but a largely normal clash of conflicting professional priorities between analysts and policymakers as two distinct national security tribes. Below is an attempt to provide general tradecraft guidance for analysts based mainly on personal experience and research. Because contentious issues usually generate an expansion in requests for analytic deliverables and a compression of deadlines, managers are advised to invest in incremental development of identified analyst skills before sustained policymaker criticism strikes.
The general message of these recommendations is that analysts should take the tradecraft elements of policymaker criticism seriously. Analysts should enhance, first, understanding of the dynamics of national security policy making, second, their vulnerability to misperception and, third, their skills in remedial practices. The goal—by raising standards of practice—is to take tradecraft issues off the table, so to speak, in an effort to isolate and defuse any politically motivated elements.
Recommendations for DI Analysts
Analysts should commit to learning as much about the US policymaking process and their key policymaking clients as, say, a national security correspondent for a major newspaper or journal is expected to command. Analysts, starting from year one, have to spend quality time analyzing how Washington works, even if this slows down the pace of grasping how Baghdad, Berlin, or Buenos Aires work.
By setting practical and measurable goals, both learning curves can be mounted in reasonable time. One approach is to hold biweekly "pizza lunches" on the unit's policymaking environment. Invite junior policy aides, National Intelligence Officers, PDB briefers, and other informed people as guest speakers. Assign individual analysts to brief the unit on the policy-shaping background and current activities and statements of individual clients.
Another measure is for analysts to be trained to role-play potentially critical policy clients while reviewing their drafts, not to mortgage analytic integrity but to anticipate tradecraft and other challenges and beef up vulnerable elements of the assessment.
Analysts should recognize that they reach judgments on complex issues not solely on the basis of facts that speak for themselves, but also by reliance on substantive biases that help them make sense of incomplete, contradictory and otherwise ambiguous information. Judgments based on "professional mindset" are usually well founded in substantive expertise on the issue at hand, but as a rule are not demonstrable on the basis of available evidence to a skeptical analytic colleague or manager, much less a doubting policy official.
Regarding unprecedented events, at times the more the analyst knows about the general issue the more she has to unlearn to credit the onset of a new driving force and oncoming paradigm shift. Most chapter headings of post-war history feature developments that DI experts, along with nongovernmental counterparts, once thought of as unlikely. For example, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany.
Recognition of the substantive perils of estimating is a prerequisite for taking the views of other informed observers seriously—in effect, to use criticism to advantage. This, again, is not an invitation to jettison hard earned professional judgments, but to avoid premature dismissal of alternative explanations and outcomes.
Analysts should also take heed of the psychological perils of estimating. Inherent cognitive limitations compound the mindset challenge caused by the limitations of substantive expertise regarding "one of a kind" events. Whatever the analyst's level of expertise, the "hard-wiring" of the mind tends to make confirming information seem more vivid and authoritative than information that would call an established bottom line judgment into question.
Authorities on perception and misperception in national security affairs have concluded that general recognition of cognitive vulnerability does not remove risk of unmotivated bias in evaluating information.
Managing the twin perils of substantive and cognitive bias while interpreting complex developments and predicting uncertain outcomes requires engagement in analytic structuring as well as in group brainstorming and casual self-criticism.
Unstructured attempts to challenge the lead analyst's preferred judgments often produce more heat than light. Especially on hot-button issues, analysts should commit to all the structuring steps associated with Linchpin Analysis or a similar method of organized analysis: spell out and critically assess assumptions, be specific about signposts that would make you change your bottom line, identify triggers of a shift in momentum or probabilities. [2]
Analyze with care, and an open mind, the policy critics' paradigm of a contentious issue, however colored by political considerations it may at first seem. Deconstruct it to identify the critic's assumptions, evaluation of evidence, and calculations of likelihood.
If the prominence of the issue warrants, undertake a Devil's Advocacy exercise, whereby the production unit's judgments about a contested issue are put to one side, and one or more analysts use appropriate tradecraft to try to justify the critic's judgments. Again, the goal of such activities is not necessarily to abandon or modify the DI's bottom line estimative judgments, but to put them to the test of a well-vetted alternative analytic approach.
Do not hesitate to change the question from the one analysts initially believed should be addressed to ones policy critics call for. Often the shift is from what is the most likely interpretation of an event or relationship or the most likely future path of development, to what direct and indirect leverage the US has to reduce dangers and seize opportunities.
Analysts should have the skills at hand to adjust the mix and emphasis of deliverables to the preference of many well-informed policymakers for help in understanding and leveraging forces at play rather than for reporting events and estimating outcomes.
Action analysis requires assessments to go beyond "relevancy" to the policymakers' concerns and to address with expert understanding power relationships abroad, as well as foreign leaders' risk analysis and susceptibility to US carrots and sticks.
More deliberate analyst attention to evaluating evidence on contentious policy issues, especially assessments of gaps in information, is a promising avenue for stripping tradecraft complaints from policymaker criticism of analytic performance.
Analysts should seek help from specialized DI units when needed but must ensure incremental growth in their own skills for evaluating the authenticity of information (combating D&D), the extent to which available information represents the total picture (understanding collection platforms), and the information's diagnostic power (to sort signals from noise).
Analysts should take the extra steps needed to convince lead policymakers on sensitive issues that the production unit has done its homework in evaluating evidence. More robust tradecraft for evaluating absence of evidence is needed here. Analysts can adapt for a variety of analytic issues the illustrative example of "gaps in information" tradecraft outlined on the last page below.
Careful use of estimative terminology, always important in intelligence-policy relations to avoid compounding substantive uncertainty with linguistic confusion, is essential on sensitive issues. Vague estimative phrases such as "real possibility" and "good chance" should be avoided, even at the risk of an exaggerated precision (e.g., "we judge the odds to be low—no more than 1 in 5"). On controversial issues also avoid non-falsifiable judgments such as "it is possible," "suggests that," and "according to reports." Provide instead an evaluation of the authenticity, comprehensiveness of coverage, and significance of the evidence.
As long as an analytic unit believes it has done its homework in evaluating evidence and in considering alternative explanations and projections, it should stand by its estimative judgments even if policymaker criticism persists. But the unit should also work to ensure continued access to and credibility with key clients by varying the emphasis and potential utility of its deliverables. Consider taking the following "1-3-1" approach to a hot button issue on which the Team or Issue Group is engaged in producing nearly daily assessments.
Once a week, issue a net judgment assessment that features a credible accounting of the impact of recent developments and reports.
Several times a week, put the net judgment aside and employ action analysis to address tactical dangers and policy opportunities on which direct and indirect US leverage could be applied.
Once a week, change the question via Alternative Analysis tradecraft. For example: What-If Analysis (What we would see, if the likelihood of development X increased). Risk-Benefit Analysis (The adversary's estimated calculations affecting its possible engagement in development X). If-Then Analysis (Implications of the advent of a high-impact, low-probability development).
What of the danger that analysts' efforts to curb their own substantive and cognitive biases will generate deliverables that provide unwarranted support to the clients' biases and weaken respect for the production unit's professional judgment?
There may be no win-win answer, but suppression of tradecraft initiatives and the countering of policymaker exaggeration of certitude with analyst exaggeration will help neither camp. Perhaps a blending of activities and deliverables that indicate an open mind toward alternative interpretations with regular affirmation of what analysts believe to be sound, if vulnerable, judgments will suit best. Finally, early engagement of the DI Ombudsman and other detached veteran practitioners will help a beleaguered production unit deal with the difficult challenge of identifying the best professional response to policymaker criticism.
Recommendations for DI Leadership: Robust Corporate Tradecraft
Every intelligence issue, and every opportunity to craft a written assessment or present an oral brief, has one-of-a-kind elements. Good analysis is often driven by lead analyst and team examination of these particulars, specialized execution of analytic tradecraft—at times through a trial and error approach, and then a largely personalistic quality control and review process. Identification of best practices, as indicated, can be lost in concentration on the details.
When internal or external pressures have demanded it, the DDI has launched initiatives to identify, codify, and teach best practices based on how veteran analysts have dealt with the common and recurring elements of an analytic challenge. This process was essentially undertaken regarding Alternative Analysis in 1999-2000.
DI leadership should consider commissioning such an effort for the analytic management of policymaker criticism of the kind outlined in this paper. A relatively inexperienced analytic work force will be much in need of help if the prolonged tensions that surrounded, say, the Vietnam War or the Central American insurgencies return soon on Iraq or some other complex issue.
- The Agency can tap a rich and useful trove of experience, including from oral deliverables at inter-agency policy meetings and telephone and teleconference exchanges and limited-distribution customized memoranda. Analysts and managers who have had tours with policymaking outfits will also have much insight to contribute
- Convening a conference to pool the experience of retired and practicing analysts who have worked the challenge, and then holding a follow-up exchange with policymaking counterparts could tap additional insights. A rather flat learning curve has to be made steeper.
The commissioning of series of specialized tradecraft notes, one or more case studies, and a conference or two on the challenge—to all of which the DDI would lend guidance and sanction standards—would be a worthwhile and timely investment. The resultant DDI-sanctioned tradecraft approaches could be incorporated into CIA University training initiatives on policy relations (e.g., a Kent School seminar). Individual production offices may seek their own training and mentoring programs based on the codified DI tradecraft standards.
Transparent corporate tradecraft is not meant to drive out individualized approaches to the management of particular analytic assignments when circumstances require. But it will serve to shape, speed, and strengthen the overall body of Directorate responses to policymaker criticism.
Text Box
Illustrative Methodology to Assess an Information Gap
Hypothetical Intelligence Challenge
To test the analysts' judgment that Country X probably does not have a robust nuclear weapons program by examining the absence of specific information needed to confirm existence of the program.
Analytic Team Activities
Identify 3 to 5 essential factors on which analysts have little or no reliable information but that would have to be present if Country X has a robust nuclear weapons program. (For example, an ample foreign or domestic source of weapons-grade fissile material).
Evaluate Country X's assumed ability to use Denial and Deception (D&D) to block effective intelligence collection against each essential factor.
List plausible non-D&D explanations, however unlikely, for all-source collection to miss each of the essential factors.
Evaluate US ability to collect information on each essential factor, if the program existed, taking into account D&D and other barriers.
Calculate the team's collective intuitive estimate of the probability that all-source analysis would miss obtaining information on each essential factor, if the program existed (for example, greater than 90%, greater than 50%).
Calculate the team's collective intuitive estimate of the probability that all-source analysis would miss collecting hard information on all of the essential factors (that is, the likelihood that a robust weapons program indeed exists).
Commission individual team members or supporting contractors to list all anomalous information that has been collected but not credited as authentic or diagnostic and explain the reason for discrediting in each instance.
Commission a similar group to prepare a Devil's Advocacy assessment that seeks to justify analytically a greater likelihood that a robust nuclear weapons program exists
On the basis of Steps 1-8, reassess the Team's estimative judgment of the likelihood that a robust nuclear weapons program exists.
[1] Over the past decade, policy critics have been both generous and largely consistent in explanations of their criticism of certain aspects of analytic tradecraft. Major sources of commentary include: a presentation to DI managers in 1994 by three high-ranking policy officials of the first Bush Administration (Paul Wolfowitz, Steven Hadley, Arnold Kantor); commentary by Paul Wolfowitz in 1995 on "managing uncertainty"; the report on missile analysis by a commission on which current DOD officials Donald Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and Steven Cambone served (1998); and, since 2001, articles and public statements by and commentary in the media attributed to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz.
[2] Linchpin analysis is an approach to structured argumentation advocated by former DDI Douglas MacEachin in the early 1990s, when he revised terms from standard academic nomenclature. Key variables became "drivers" of outcomes, and hypotheses about drivers became "linchpins"— assumptions underlying the argument that had to be spelled out explicitly.
All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in Occasional Papers are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the Kent School, the Central Intelligence Agency, or any other US Government entity, past or present.
Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of an article's factual statements and interpretations.
These papers have been prepared with the support of Central Intelligence Agency funds and are published with the consent of the authors.