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Poll survey controversy, Part II
By Roberto R. Romulo
The controversy over pre-election surveys continues to rage as many have joined the fray and more information has poured in that sheds light on public opinion polling. I yield a portion of this space today to a second bulletin from former senator Francisco Tatad which I found revealing:
New surveys raise more questions
The release last March 5 by Pulse Asia of the results of its February pre-election survey comes at a time when there is widespread public questioning of the methods and practices of opinion polling firms and the injurious effects of surveys on the election campaign…The media and the public should not be deluded by the positional or percentage changes in the horse race into thinking that the Pulse Asia survey has improved in methodology or that the malpractices have been corrected. They have not.
1. Pulse Asia evades disclosure requirement
In issuing the results of its February survey, Pulse Asia continues to ignore our demand for public disclosure of the names of all those sponsoring its Ulat ng Bayan surveys. It invokes the confidentiality of its contracts and eludes its professional and ethical responsibility.
In the US and other countries, disclosure of the identity of survey sponsors is a must prior to publication. They are demanded by the professional association to which pollsters belong; they are also demanded by the media organizations that report them. In the Philippines, this requirement is unconscionably cast aside.
Pulse Asia cannot escape this responsibility by saying that its February survey, and its previous surveys, are "not singularly sponsored", because in fact, they have multiple sponsors.
Neither should it posture that releasing survey results is "a public service" or an "academic responsibility", because the fact that the survey is sponsored and undertaken for a fee or fees colors it with the self interest of both pollster and sponsors.
To reiterate our position: if the sponsors do not want their identities revealed, then Pulse Asia may not disclose to the public the survey results. In the case of multiple sponsorships, the disclosure of all sponsors should be mandatory prior to release. It should not select only those willing to come out in the open.
2. Undecided voters suppressed in surveys
Secondly, poll survey firms are suppressing the real number of undecided voters because of the way they frame the vote-choice question, thereby making the results flawed and inaccurate.
In late January, with the election still three months away and the campaign not even officially begun, SWS reported a mere two percent of voters undecided and Pulse Asia four percent undecided. In May 2009, with the election still a year away, Pulse Asia reported a similar four percent of voters undecided. Ironically, now, when the election date is closer, Pulse Asia is reporting a slightly higher percentage of undecided — six percent.
The number of the undecided is perennially being understated or suppressed because Pulse Asia, SWS and other local pollsters continue to frame the vote choice question in the same way pollsters did in the 1948 US election: "If the elections were held today, who would you vote for among these candidates, etc.?"
Former Gallup executive and social scientist David Moore, who has led the way in exposing this Achilles heel of election polling, says that this "forced choice" question does not take into account that statistically and realistically, most voters are undecided up to the final days when they actually have to vote. It forces respondents to choose in a hypothetical way. Consequently, they get answers that do not reflect real voter sentiments.
Moore says that in actual tests conducted in the US, the forced – choice question produces undecided answers of five percent or lower. But when respondents are offered a clear choice of saying that they still haven't decided yet, the number of undecided can range from 20 percent to as high as 70 percent – depending on how far away the election is. He says that when the election is still three months away, it's safe to assume that some 30 percent are still undecided.
Because of the insistence of pollsters since 1948 on using the forced-choice question, Moore says in his recent book, The Opinion Makers, that pollsters "do not measure public opinion, they manufacture it."
Another view from an American pollster
I received this comment from my friend Pete Brodnitz, partner at Benenson Strategy Group and 2007 Pollster of the Year.
"A wide range of criticisms have been leveled at polling techniques recently in the Philippine press. They have included discussion of whether Philippine polls are up to international standards, and whether any polls at all are accurate.
I have conducted polls around the world in a wide variety of countries, languages and cultures. The fact is that polls work. They are not infallible. Exit polls – polls conducted on the day of an election – are a particularly difficult type of poll to conduct accurately but most polls are not exit polls. So while there are clear examples of polls being off the mark, there are many more examples of polls that are quite accurate. And many of the most widely cited cases of inaccurate polls are dated, exit polls rather than pre-election polls, or polls conducted during highly volatile elections where opinion is in flux.
The quality of polls around the world is generally high even though the methods used to conduct the polls – including differences in how interviews are conducted (phone, door-to-door, Internet) and how questions are structured – vary widely. In every country, there is a mix of quality and not so high quality polls. And in every country, questions are routinely and wisely raised about whether a particular poll is accurate or not, biased or not. But the fact is that when a preponderance of polls indicate that certain attitudes or vote preferences are common, the odds are good that this is accurate.
Polls are commonly described as a snapshot in time but too often people forget to take this into account when reading polls. While some polls are inaccurate I believe the more common reason for why some polls don't reflect the winner of an election is because voters attitudes continue to change up until election. So while voters are right to be critical poll readers and right to reject the idea that any poll predicts the future, they would be wrong to assume they cannot learn about the attitudes of their fellow citizens by reading the polls."
Any reply that Pulse Asia, SWS and other pollsters would like to make to Mr. Tatad is welcome and will be similarly published in this column.


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Two New Featurettes For THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2
Ok watch it here guys. There are spoilers in these - like the relationship issues that Peter and Gwen go through and Stan Lee's cameo appearance too. So be warned!
I really like the eco-friendly nature of this production! Hopefully this becomes the model for other productions and studios to follow. Hats off to Sony for this!
Here's the storyline for the movie:
We've always known that Spider-Man's most important battle has been within himself: the struggle between the ordinary obligations of Peter Parker and the extraordinary responsibilities of Spider-Man. But in The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Peter Parker finds that a greater conflict lies ahead.
It's great to be Spider-Man (Andrew Garfield). For Peter Parker, there's no feeling quite like swinging between skyscrapers, embracing being the hero, and spending time with Gwen (Emma Stone). But being Spider-Man comes at a price: only Spider-Man can protect his fellow New Yorkers from the formidable villains that threaten the city. With the emergence of Electro (Jamie Foxx), Peter must confront a foe far more powerful than he. And as his old friend, Harry Osborn (Dane DeHaan), returns, Peter comes to realize that all of his enemies have one thing in common: OsCorp.
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 opens on May 2.
via BleedingCool

subset: commoncrawl


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I hope you have a Happy Independence Day tomorrow! A lot of cities are celebrating tonight because people are off work on the day of the 4th, so it's best to celebrate until the wee hours of the 3rd.
The other day I wore a patriotic outfit. Unfortunately it was seriously windy at my house! I wore a soft cotton Ralph Lauren top with Ralph Lauren blazer and khaki pants. I added red patent leather pumps for a kick of fun.
I'm also starting a new job this week! Here's to hoping for great new beginning and great opportunities to learn and grow.


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Hosted by Patrick @ The Bookshelves & Jen @ Ya Romantics
Click on the banner to join in
"Why Am I Reading These Books?"
I just bought Memoirs of a Teenage Amnesiac, The Queen of Kentucky, and Winter Town on a great sale.
Under The Never Sky, Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children, and Under The Never Sky are all books I have had a long time and just got signed! So it's time to finally read them!
I'm moody so who the heck knows what I may read but I'd like to get a couple of them read. I have double copies of some for future giveaways as well!
Finished Memoirs of a Teenage Amnesiac, The Queen of Kentucky and almost finished with Winter Town!


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OK, that's cars. Before we move on to heavy equipment, let's consider medium duty trucks. Medium duty truck owners are more like car owners than heavy truck. These owner operators don't have large fleets of trucks. They primarily focus on their bakery, local brewery, or plumbing supply business. They are more sophisticated than car owners, but, unlike heavy truck fleet owners, they do not have fleet managers that focus on uptime and cost.
What about heavy trucks, farm equipment, and construction? Twenty-two year old sales reps typically don't play in these sandboxes. My caution here is to watch the technology and how it is used; don't overly fixate on the customer. The patterns of customer loyalty erosion outside auto and medium duty truck will reflect how technology will be used, not the genetics of a brand or a customer.
Ag, heavy truck (HT), and construction dealers have much stronger aftersales customer relationships than their automotive cousins – this is truer of Ag and construction than HT. That is important because these sorts of products typically don't have tail fins, 20 color choices, tuned exhausts, and fancy fat low-profile wheels and tires. Ultimately, they are commodities that are primarily differentiated by acquisition cost, performance, uptime, and total cost of ownership. Up-time is critical and this is all about fast response to maintenance and repair needs. Now, let's watch the technology.
Time out: The largest, most sophisticated fleets are using technology to maximize value, not just to find cheaper parts and service. In particular, they want easier parts and service, and will pay more for it; for example, telematics and infrastructure that are integrated with dealers' DMS and fleets' purchasing systems that automatically open repair orders, send estimates to fleets, and then send POs from fleets back to dealers. Dealers that can support this will get the aftersales business.Two things are bound to happen. First, dealer/distributor labor rates and parts costs will become more benchmark-able for the faster moving wear parts that are available through the aftermarket. Second lines will help here, but they might not be able to plumb the depths of competitive pricing. Labor rates will be more transparent from dealer to dealer … and from dealer to non-dealer. Fix-my-own commercial operators will buy more from the internet. They will buy what's available … and more will become available. That's the good news.
The bad news is that they will document their experience and write customer reviews – they will do this because they will find these reviews helpful in choosing dealers, and choosing manufacturers. This will serve to further commoditize these segments. Winners will be (1) low cost total providers, (2) with great digital marketing presence, (3) with extraordinary supply chain performance, and (4) who closely watch the technology, how it is used, and get in front of their customer needs … rather than chase after them.