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Russia on the Border Between Geopolitics and Globalization
By Dmitri Trenin
Carnegie Moscow Center
Copyright © 2001 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington DC 20036 Tel. (202) 483-7600 Fax. (202) 483-1840 E-mail. email@example.com http:/ /www.ceip.org
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment or the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Dmitri Trenin: The End of Eurasia: Russia on the Border Between Geopolitics and Globalization ISBN: 5-89520-048-6
This book was published within the framework of the Carnegie Moscow Center's program "Foreign and Security Policy." Financial support for this program is provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Starr Foundation. This book is distributed free of charge.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and its Moscow Center do not normally take institutional positions on public policy issues. The views and recommendations presented in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Carnegie Endowment, its officers, staff, or trustees.
Acknowledgments ................................................................................................ 7
Introduction ........................................................................ 11
Part One: A FAREWELL TO THE EMPIRE
CHAPTER I. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History ........................................................................ 39
Factors Behind the Territorial Enlargement ...................................... Geographical Factors .............................................................. Cultural Factors ....................................................................... The Models of Expansion ..................................................................... The Collecting of Lands Model ............................................. The Moving of Borders (Colonization) Model ................... The Strategic Borders Model ................................................. The Restoration Model ........................................................... Le Monde Sans Frontières: a Revolutionary Aberration ................................................................................ Patterns of Russia's Territorial Contraction ...................................... Implications of the "Spacial Syndrome" ........................................... From Pax Russica to the Soviet Universe: The Psychological Impact .................................................................... The Two Worlds Model: Boundaries of the (Soviet) Universe ....... Costs of Territorial Expansion ............................................................. Conclusion .............................................................................................. 41 41 44 46 46 52 56 66 69 71 74 76 77 79 81
CHAPTER II. The Break-Up of the USSR, A Break in Continuity ............................................................. 87
Why Did the USSR Break Up? ............................................................ 88 A Long Decline ...................................................................................... 95 A Phoenix Redux? What Role for the CIS? ....................................... 99
Why the Phoenix Won't Fly This Time ............................................ 105 Geopolitical Concerns ........................................................................ 109 What Union with Belarus? .................................................................. 112 What's in a Border? .............................................................................. 114 Double Border Strategy ....................................................................... 117 Ways and Means .................................................................................. 124 Border Service Reform ........................................................................ 125 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 129
Part Two: RUSSIA'S THREE FACADES
CHAPTER III. The Western Facade .............................. 145
The Traditional West ........................................................................... 146 The New West ...................................................................................... 152 The New Eastern Europe .................................................................... 160 Belarus, or North-Western Territory ? ................................ 160 Ukraine or "Little Russia"? .................................................. 163 Moldova: An Outpost Too Far ............................................ 170 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 172
CHAPTER IV. The Southern Tier ..................................177
The North Caucasus ........................................................................... 179 Chechnya ................................................................................ 180 The Rest of the North Caucasus ......................................... 188 The South Caucasus ............................................................................ 190 Georgia and Azerbaijan ....................................................... 190 The Caspian .......................................................................................... 195 Central Asia .......................................................................................... 196 Kazakhstan ............................................................................. 196 Intra-Central Asian Issues ................................................... 198 Tajikistan and Afghanistan .................................................. 200 China — Central Asia ........................................................... 203
CHAPTER V. The Far Eastern Backyard ......................208
The State of the Russian Far East ...................................................... 210 The Sino-Russian Border ..................................................................... 211 Southern Kurils or Northern Territories? ........................................ 220
Part Three: INTEGRATION
CHAPTER VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question ...................................................................237
Historical Evolution ............................................................................ Sources of Regionalization ................................................................. Factors of Stability and Instability .................................................... The National Homelands ................................................................... The Finn-Ugrian Republics are the Least Restive .......................... The Pull of the West ............................................................................ The "Russian Question" and the Chances of Ethnic Russian Separatism ............................................................................................ Conclusion ............................................................................................ 239 241 246 252 258 259 260 269
CHAPTER VII. Fitting Russia In ................................... 278
Russia-as-part-of-the-West: A False Dawn ...................................... Russia-as-Eurasia Revisited ............................................................... Russia and the World of Islam .......................................................... The Far Eastern Europe ...................................................................... Toward a Europe Without Dividing Lines? .................................... 280 283 287 290 292
Conclusion: AFTER EURASIA
Options for Russia ............................................................................................. Revisionist Russia? .............................................................................. Russia's Disintegration ....................................................................... Creative Adjustment ........................................................................... Options for Russia's Neighbors ...................................................................... Options for the West ......................................................................................... Borders and Ethnicity ....................................................................................... 313 313 316 317 326 328 333
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Its Moscow Center ..................................................................................... 339
analyst and now a scholar specializing in certain key parts of Eurasia is truly unique managed to be both frank and friendly in his appraisal of my work.Acknowledgments his book is the result of over two years of my work at the Carnegie Moscow Center. for which I am very much indebted to him. fair. T 7 . and the former Vice President for the Russia-Eurasia Program. Very special thanks go the reviewers of the book. D. I would not have been able to undertake this project without the encouragement and close support of the Center's outgoing Director and my personal friend. Alan Rousso. my colleague at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. and provided me with a detailed. As a serious student of Russia. my partner in the Foreign and Security Policy project at Carnegie. gave extremely insightful comments on the manuscript which allowed me to improve it in important ways. Alan also ironed out many problems related to the publication process. Executive Vice President Paul Balaran. to say the least. and among the very top experts on Russia anywhere. he took on the great effort necessary to read the manuscript very closely.C. and very honest critique of its content. Arnold Horelick.Mathews. I also received support and encouragement from the senior leadership of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — its President. Throughout. he gave me steady and sound advice. Thomas Graham. Jessica T.. never an easy thing. Vice President and Director of Studies Thomas Carothers. Anatol Lieven. and someone whose experience as a journalist.
Dmitri Trenin Moscow December 2000 8 . all its weaknesses. who invested much time and energy into making the text more readable. I was very fortunate to find Michael Kazmarek. Deputy Director of The Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow and one of the truly great lights of the Russian academic scene.Acknowledgments Last. the Carnegie Center's most able Assistant Director for Communications. it must be mentioned book grew out of a short essay I did for an East-West Institute volume on Russia and the West. I badly needed someone who would turn my English into proper English. I was lucky to be able to rely throughout the project on the prompt and evereffective support of Dmitri Basisty. the Center's exceptionally able intern. I am grateful to Professor Vladimir Baranovsky. who shepherded the text in the final stages before it was sent to the presses. Karl Kaiser and Robert Legvold. I was enormously assisted in preparing the manuscript for publication first by Ekaterina Shirley. edited by Alexei Arbatov. As anyone who attempts to write in a language that is not one's mother tongue. Last but not least. This is a long way of saying that I fully share with my colleagues and friends whatever strengths the book has. I am indebted to Helen Belopolsky. and later by her successor Natalia Kirpikova. a former editor of the Moscow Times. our computer wizard and layout designer. whose comments stimulated me to both broaden my outlook and to deepen my analysis. but by no means least. are totally mine. however.
Pyotr and Andrei .To Vera.
"a border in Russia is more than a border. Russia. The Potsdam Conference. traditionally has been a geographical concept.) STALIN: Germany is.. 1945. Toward the end of the 20th century the tide of history began to turn. What is now the meaning of "Germany"? TRUMAN: How is this question understood by the Soviet delegation? (. and the possible evolution of both. for Russia at the start of the third millennium is very much a country. As Germany became reunited. a geographical concept. 1 T his book raises the question of the meaning of "Russia" today. too. as we say. and its internal territorial organization has been intimately linked with the nature of the country's political regime. I note that the word "Germany" is used here. its place in the world. Like Germany. the Soviet Union disintegrated. changing a centuries-old pattern of international relations on the continent of Eurasia. While most people celebrated the end of Soviet communism. July 18. Its external borders have defined its cultural and international identity. Second Sitting.Introduction CHURCHILL: I want to raise only one question.... To cite one of the most frequently paraphrased lines by the poet Yevgeny Yevtushenko." The nominal subject of the book is therefore Russia's borders. some analysts held the view that the resulting 11 . and we shall be clearer on the question of Germany. whose identity is changing. Let us define the western borders of Poland.
12 . the empire. However. The latter is of key importance. the Soviet Union. and 70 percent of the land mass. Even after 1991. it appeared that Russia had simply been trimmed at the margins. Not any longer. they argued. Today's Russia encompasses just about 50 percent of the Soviet population. the Far East.2 The worst-case scenario has not happened — at least. Siberia. The present-day Russian Federation still includes major elements of the traditional Russian state — Greater Russia itself. and the North Caucasus. not yet. the Russian Federation has been unsure of its new role. The notion of "Eurasia" as used in this book should not be confused with the entire continent of Eurasia (which of course will continue to exist). was no longer in the position of holding the world in geopolitical balance. Despite its central position as a heartland. What we are referring to is the traditional Russian state — the tsardom of Muscovy. It is still located in Europe and in Asia. and identity. 60 percent of its industrial capacity. the Russian Federation was almost naturally cast in the geopolitical role of the USSR — only to discover that it was impossible to act like its predecessor. They believed that a chain reaction would ultimately follow. since the fall of the USSR and the end of communism ten years ago. Having preserved most of the Soviet Union's territory. place. The political elite and the public view their country as the successor state of both the USSR and the Russian Empire. Generations of Russians have formed their conception of their country simply by looking at a map.Introduction collapse of the USSR threatened to end in nothing less than a world geopolitical catastrophe. A tsarist-era school primer cites Russia's "bigness" as its natural defining quality: Russai is big. These used to be synonymous with Russia. Russia. which shows it to be the world's biggest by far.
greed. and then cope with either of them? What will happen to the Russian Far East. The end of the Soviet/Russian empire is the result of a long process of selfdetermination. how will Russia fit into the outside world: as an island. The process of fundamental change is not complete. or part of some larger construct? These are the kinds of questions that will be dealt with in this book. not the product of mistakes. and what could be the likely consequences of its failure to do so? Will Russia be able to distinguish between Moslem revival and Islamic extremism. The method of response and the options chosen will help shape its new international identity. It uses the notion of the border not so much as a way to discuss territorial arrangements. The sailing will be 13 . Postimperial Russia faces new and very different challenges along its European. the way the Russian government deals with the issue of internal borders will help define the nature of the political regime in Russia. and Far Eastern borders. or find a way to balance regionalism and central authority in some yet-to-be devised form of federalism? Lastly. however important these may be. but has a minuscule population. By the same token. which is rich in natural resources. as a prism through which some clues to the answers to the questions cited above can be found. become a loose confederation. The book argues that the recent changes in the shape and nature of Russia's borders are of a qualitative nature. or crimes.Introduction But it has lost its former quality as the center of gravity on the continent. and shares a long border with China? Will Russia itself recentralize. a bridge. but rather as an analytical tool. Will Belarus survive as a separate country in the next ten years? What will happen to Ukraine in the long-term? Will Kazakhstan ever be able to achieve internal cohesion. Central Asian. Questions abound.
the era during which Eurasia was synonymous with Russia is over. The signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 established a truly common market. In North America. it is said. having concentrated instead on attaining economic prowess. are being blurred. a free trade area was created in 1993.3 Most post-industrial states have abjured territorial expansion as a worthy policy goal. these notions will no longer be blurred together. * * * Books on geopolitics are popular in Russia. Whatever options are pursued and whatever choices are made in the future. European integration has made great strides. or wide cultural outreach. was closely followed by the emergence of a common foreign and security policy. on the contrary. The traditional world of nation-states is becoming an international community. In the West. and the introduction in 1999 by 11 member states of the European Union of a common currency.4 Since the end of the Cold War. There is even a telling comparison between state borders and the medieval city walls that were torn down when the feudal era came to an end. and with good reason. bringing not only Canada but also Mexico into ever closer integration with the United States. Despite the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the turmoil in Indone- 14 . In the 21st century. Borders. between the Scylla of fragmentation and the Charybdis of stifling recentralization. the Schengen Agreement of 1995 did away with border controls within a space now covered by ten countries. the euro.Introduction rough. technological sophistication. the subject is often treated as largely irrelevant. the capacity for innovation. It is argued that in the age of globalization the issue of state borders is obsolete or archaic. and will ultimately wither away.
Liberated from the straight jacket of the Cold War. and to a chain reaction of territorial fragmentation. the only serious recent example of a state pursuing the traditional policy of territorial annexation is the famously unsuccessful attempt by Saddam Hussein's Iraq to take over Kuwait. Likewise. is that state borders are now being challenged from within rather than from without. None of these trends has eliminated the essential role that the state plays in the world economic arena. four — including Russia — do not control the whole of their territory. in different forms.Introduction sia. Out of 12 states making up the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The erasing of borders has fostered greater environmental cooperation. the breakup of the Soviet Union has resulted in several armed conflicts. of course. Indeed. are at work in other parts of the world. Similar processes of state fragmentation. cross-border interaction has become a new motor of economic growth. however. ASEAN continues to act as a pole of attraction. such as MERCOSUR. is that in many parts of the world. with at least four unrecognized political entities5 claiming independence from central governments and acting as autonomous players. and a vast exchange of information in a borderless global environment that is virtually outside the control of national governments. The counter-argument to this. Integrationist projects. are bringing together many Latin American nations. The collapse of the former Yugoslavia has led to a decade of wars in the Balkans. from Africa to In- 15 . huge flows of capital. Border conflicts excepted. separatism has become a major issue in most parts of the world. What is striking. most of which are frozen but none of which is resolved. borders have ceased to be barriers and are increasingly becoming a place for cooperation and integration.
Similarly. Even perfectly orderly devolution. and modalities of secession. thus further expanding the international droit de regard inside state borders. in what circumstances.6 Another kind of challenge comes from the international community. and China's insistence that Taiwan is a domestic political issue to be resolved by whatever means considered appropriate by Beijing. is raising important issues of identity. Whereas in much of the post-industrial world. if not more so. though by no means everywhere7. In 1975. borders are not a relevant issue any longer. Russia's military action in Chechnya. in Samuel Huntington's phrase. as in the United Kingdom. International military actions such as NATO's intervention in Kosovo fundamentally challenge the principle of territorial sovereignty and the sanctity of international borders. (Didn't Romulus kill Remus for crossing a 16 . there is disagreement over the limits of the use of force to preserve territorial integrity. in other parts of the world this is not the case. "the West and the rest" as to who can use force across internationally recognized borders for the lofty cause of preventing humanitarian catastrophes and protecting human rights. There is a serious disagreement between. the CSCE agreed that consensus on human rights issues need not include the country immediately affected. and under whose mandate. An even more contentious issue is the right to. are all instances that defend the principle as rigorously as it is being challenged. In 1992. Conversely. Border conflicts remain among the factors most likely to set off wars. India's fight against separatist rebels in Kashmir. conditions for.Introduction donesia. the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) elevated human rights in Europe to a legitimate topic of international concern.
if not tension. or a zone of vital (or "special") interests in the territory of the former USSR. or militarily." and a crisis of confidence between the expanding alliance and Russia. which brought new countries into the Transatlantic security community. inter-state territorial disputes can have potentially dramatic implications far beyond the immediate conflict areas. There has been an early attempt to carve out a sphere of influence.8 There is a broader notion of a border as a line identifying a political community. Ironically.Introduction boundary line he had drawn?) From the Caspian Sea to the Indian subcontinent to East Asia. illegal immigration. ultimately. with its emphasis on cross-border contacts. which. Russia. or an economic union. as a candidate member of many Western institutions. has been trying to reorganize the post-Soviet space to suit its interests. and borders between them blur and lose their former significance. Apparently rejected by the West. among the "would-be ins. could also be only Russia (with Belarus). a military alliance. NATO enlargement. Even as countries that are sometimes called post-modern join forces economically. The enlargement of the European Union could ultimately draw a real and durable dividing line between the integrated Western and Central Europe and the non-integrated eastern periphery of the continent. politically. Irredentists predictably used the concept of the near abroad and the external borders of 17 . such as international crime. a likely permanent outsider. has at the same time provoked a palpable increase in the level of anxiety. and illicit drugs and arms trade. at least for now. has once again brought the importance of borders to light for the countries seeking to protect themselves from its undesirable effects. globalization. emphasis is increasingly laid on their common external perimeter.
At the global level.10 The notion of territory is intimately tied with the concept of borders. The end of the Soviet Union meant that this firmament. began moving. a testimony of its growth." and "third" (non-aligned) parties has given prominence to affinities within civilizations. and prospects of the CIS." "communist. have often turned into principal zones of tension and conflict in the post-Cold War world. Russia's perceived mission in the world. was key both to the vaunted Russian Idea (which was basically that of a universal empire). and the political and economic organization of the Russian state. Territorial politics. Islam. and other civilizations (including that of Orthodoxy. Thus."11 For centuries.Introduction the CIS as a means of staking out their Monroe Doctrinetype claims. weakness and changes in its organization. Friedrich Ratzel called them "a peripheral organ of the state. Confucianism. once so solid. Russia saw itself as a world unto itself.9 Even if one does not accept the notion of the clash of civilizations. meaning. and questions remain about the nature. with Russia as its core state) were proclaimed to be the building blocs of the post-Cold War world. at the start of the new millennium the composite picture of the world struggling to restructure itself 18 . the end of the Cold War division of the world into the "capitalist. it is clear that borderlines between civilizations. They did not get their way. causing confusion and even despair. the steady territorial expansion of the world socialist system was elevated to the level of a law of history. from geographical expansion to tight border controls. a new ("third") Rome. After 1945. strength. The territorial domains of Western Christianity. which are inherently blurred. a self-contained and largely self-sustained universe — almost a minor planet sitting on planet Earth.
Globalization proceeds alongside fragmentation. The process is not complete. both have found it hard. the lines between them are being reconfigured. to redefine themselves as part of an increasingly integrated Europe. Within two decades after the end of World War II. Dramatic losses of territory can lead to a fundamental change of identity. and new constellations of international actors spring up. such as Chechnya on the other. A country's fate is determined by its geography. Simply put. is intimately linked with the more fundamental problem of identity. or space. Russia's present case is hardly unique. but not everywhere. they emerge where they have never existed in the past. though not impossible. which had been built over centuries of relentless expansion. geopolitics is too important a factor to abandon it to its adepts. Russia is not only deeply implicated in many of these processes. Britain and France lost their vast colonial empires. on one hand. * * * It has long been accepted that the problem of state territory. Even as states lose power over their subjects.Introduction along new lines is very complicated. Having thus lost the status of world powers. they show their capacity to survive and even multiply. the way it performs geopolitically will be of extraordinary importance for others. and. He definitely meant this in a broader context. where associations of states are concerned. Thus. and the modern structure of the present-day Russian policy and the pre-modern state of some of its regions. In this sense. but is a key testing ground for the outcome of such processes. Caught between the postmodern reality of globalization and the European Union at its doorstep. but the trend is 19 . Borders do wither away. Napoleon observed.
and finally emerged as one of the most cohesive and stable European nation-states. borders had to move to reflect ethnic settlement patterns. Ukrainian and Belarussian provinces. It received compensation in the form of former German lands. peoples were moved around to satisfy geopolitical exigencies. having lost their possessions. the same result was achieved in Poland. thanks to the Allied plan of ethnic cleansing. Such a neat end result was achieved. both traditional multinational states with contiguous territory (as is Russia). and eventually was restored. it was reconstituted as a multinational state. almost as big as the United States and Canada combined. who were resettled to the west. More to the point. After the First World War. minus its Lithuanian. the peculiarity of the Russian case is not the nature but the size. In a more complicated and brutal fashion. ethnically homogeneous. After the end of the Cold War.Introduction clear and probably irreversible. For centuries. complexity. one shouldn't be shy to admit. stretching across 11 time zones. It is impos- 20 . ceased to be "great powers" in name as well as in reality.1 million square kilometers. without the Germans. and of their own identity. Even the rump post-Soviet Russia with its 17. from the southern Baltic coast to the Bering Strait. after World War I. the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman empires. after the second. and potential implications of the problem. and modern nation-states. and thoroughly recast their identity as small or medium-sized. Having ceased to exist for 125 years. lost its independence again. continues to be a geographical superpower. a mere sight of their country on the world map helped shape — and distort — many a Russian generation's view of their country. Russia's long borders were a traditional and very powerful argument for keeping a strong army.
12 Suffice it to examine the following table. but not Russia.10% 1.60% Territory Russian empire. in 1913 Russian Federation 1999 17% 13% 13% In one way.14 This would effectively mean that Russia itself ceases to exist. 1913 Present-day RF territory.50% Share of the worlds GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) 9. but the uncertainties abound. A "Muscovy" (i. four fifths of its present population is ethnic Russians who are traditionally wedded to the concept of a big state. " the disintegration late in 1991 of the world's territorially largest state created a 'black hole' in the very center of Eurasia.15 After all. no distinct patrimoine to return to.40% 5.Introduction sible for Russian leaders and the public alike not to see their country as a great power. this discrepancy could be overcome.e.13 Share of the worlds land surface Share of the worlds population 9. if present-day Russia were to go the way of the USSR and break up itself.80% 5.30% 2. the probability that Russia will break up is not high. As Zbigniew Brzezinski put it. but it is extremely difficult for them to come to terms with the huge and growing discrepancy between the country's geographical size and its currently negligible economic and trade weight and the low "social status" among the nations of the world. for unlike the British or French empires Russia has no island. of course. European Russia minus its Muslim republics) would be Russian. It was as if the geopoliticians' 'heartland' had been suddenly yanked from the global 21 . In the foreseeable future.
Using the 1867 sale of Alaska to the United States as a precedent. as much as possible. Even under ideal circumstances. Russia's demise — if it indeed comes to pass — will be much messier and bloodier than the remarkably orderly dismantlement of the USSR in 1991.18 Of course. More than many other countries around the world. Russia is still a work in progress whose success or failure will have farreaching consequences for its vast neighborhood in Europe and Asia.Introduction map." 16 This sudden meltdown caused despair among many Russians. to reinvent itself. this project can only be partially successful. The Russian case is further compounded — in comparison to the Franco-British one — by the fact that since the mid-1980s the country has been in the throes of a profound and extremely complex transformation that fundamentally affects its economy." or. the issue of space and identity is either underrated or overemphasized. and foreign relations. as an historically imperial and multi-ethnic state. more recently. society. is defined by its borders. In short. One is routinely using phrases like "relations between Russia and Europe. "economic crisis in Asia and 22 . Russia. Russia is a geographical concept. Russia was trying both to rediscover and. and certainly more than Germany in the summer of 1945 when Stalin made his comment quoted at the beginning of this introduction. As part of this monumental effort.17 Ironically. suggestions — although not very serious ones — have been made for a similar sale of Siberia. culture. it was the acquisition of Siberia in the 17th century that was seen as the event marking the transition from tsardom to empire. government. As it enters the 21st century. until recently commonly accepted to be on par with — or at least next to — Europe and Asia.
much more importantly. Currently. consistently refusing to grant the Chechens formal independence. linguistically. the "mother of Russian cities") and Belarus (literally. Estonia or Tajikistan did not only belong to Russia. the Russian Federation excludes places like the Crimea and northern Kazakhstan. (Europe. for fear of un- 23 . for centuries or many decades they were an integral part of it. the Russians have been. in the Russian case. is also changing profoundly. after the break-up of the USSR. and Russia as the shortened one. When. Ingushetia and other North Caucasian republics." with its capital Kiev. and culture predominate." When one talks about "France and Europe. most ethnically Russian regions opted for "Russia." one addresses relations between a part and a whole. the official name of the principal successor was being decided." whereas the non-Russian regions insisted on the "Russian Federation. Now that Ukraine (or "Little Russia. language. nevertheless. but the deeper problem is anything but resolved. The emerging relationship between the two will have a decisive impact on the nature of either's "end state"). which are ethnically. the question arises as to what remains of Russia (in the old sense) and. as India and Ireland once belonged to the British empire.Introduction Russia. traditionally. This may have been an acceptable compromise at the time. where the ethnic Russian population. of a horizontal-type relationship. of course. but it includes Dagestan. the implication has been. Such diverse countries as Armenia. and culturally infinitely more alien to Moscow than Kiev or Minsk. "White Russia") are also independent. what is Russia today. Unable for years to put down Chechen separatism. with both enjoying equal status and used interchangeably." The final decision was in favor of the Russian Federation as the full name.
The ratification in 1999 of the treaty with Ukraine aroused influential forces which continue to hold that Crimea or in any case Sevastopol must belong to Russia. at least as a minority view. This leads eminent Western scholars to conclude that "Russian identity is still predicated [more] on the geographical extent of the old empire than on any notion of a modern state. Since then. and withdrawn some 700. The treaty was eventually ratified. and not just in the borderlands. At least in part.Introduction leashing a chain reaction and compromising the unity of the Federation. taken the lead in dismantling the USSR. Now that Russia has allowed German reunification to happen and let loose former Warsaw Pact nations. the Russian position in the Kosovo crisis in 1998-1999 was governed by the parallels between Kosovo and Chechnya. They have grown increasingly reluctant to resolve the seemingly marginal territorial dispute with Japan about four islands roughly 4. however. and the new war in Chechnya has evoked the prospect of ending secessionist revolt by military means — though in the guise of an antiterrorist operation. but irredentism — and not necessarily limited to Ukraine — has become established in Russia. The 1991 border treaty with China — which re-established the norm of setting the border along the main shipping channel of the river and not the Chinese bank as in the previous 60 years — provoked backlash in Russia several years later."19 This. the war in Dagestan has again raised the possibility of Russia's actually losing the North Caucasus.000 square kilometers in area. is precisely the problem: the Russian Federation cannot exit from the "old empire" without risking its territorial integrity. which were obvious to the Russian public. By the same 24 . the political elite and public have dug in their heels.000 troops from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
comparison between Russia and most of the other former empires is rather in favor of the Russian Federation. which refers to Russia as a country or a state. However. Historically. In German. Rather. including the core areas of Ukraine and Belarus. who consider Russian culture as their own. and — under Stalin — a layered cake with each ethnic group assigned its own territory and status within a clearly defined hierarchy. The Russian national community was formed and defined by the state's borders. This community was bound not so much by ethnicity as by religion (until the 18th century) and the Russian language (in the more modern times). this difference is reflected in the words russisch and russlaendisch. the Russian community is akin to a salad mixed by the authoritarian regime. the "process" of post-imperial readjustment is far from over. The other side of the "Russian question" concerns people.Introduction token. Actually. It is equally unclear how Moscow will relate to the Russian diasporas in the newly independent neighboring countries.21 Will the new Russia be able to integrate the population within the country's borders and forge a new community of citizens of Russia (rossiyane)? With the new emphasis on "Russianness" and recurrent instances of anti-Semitism and chauvinism originating on the communist and nationalist flanks of the political spectrum.20 The language has become a mother tongue and a vehicle of modernization for millions of non-Russians.22 So far. since 1997. in Russia the word russky for ethnic Russian is paralleled by the word rossiisky. Russia has never been a melting pot. the final answer is difficult to give. 25 . the proposed merger with Belarus has become a perennial issue of principle in the struggle about the future direction of Russian politics. which in one stroke and with apparent ease let go of former provinces and borderlands.
26 . True. Despite the fears that Russia will return to its "historical rhythm" of imperial restoration. the fundamental twin questions on the national agenda at the start of the 21st century are: What is Russia? and Who is Russian? In other words. international and domestic. At a different level of analysis. the problem of space is inseparably linked to and compounded by the problem of identity. Thus. if not under its enthusiastic leadership. that the answers were already given back in 1991. but for a number of countries in both Europe and Asia. and there is a law on citizenship primarily based on a person's permanent residence in the Soviet era. Answers to these questions are bound to have far-reaching implications not only for those living in that largest former Soviet republic. 24 these commitments are still being honored. of course. when the Soviet Union was carefully dismantled with Moscow's active participation. But in this period of momentous change the viability of the new boundaries. the ruler of the Kremlin (or. one would conclude that Russia is undergoing a more profound structural transformation than ever before in its history.Introduction The comparatively smooth way the process has gone along so far may mean that more trouble is in store for the future. and the prospects for the integration or assimilation of some 25 million ethnic Russians and an equal number of other former Soviet ethnic groups into the new nations are too often taken for granted. Ever since the present red brick Kremlin was built (in the 1480s) Russia has been a centralized state. there is a formal and solemn recognition by the Russian Federation of the inviolability of the boundaries with the former Soviet republics. It could well be some time before final answers are given and accepted.23 It may be argued. simply speaking.
On the other hand. This inability to come to terms with the new realities is potentially serious.Introduction for two centuries. mainly American authors. both these 500.26 Translations of foreign.27 Russia's liberals28 on the other hand. have been published. Ever since Kazan was conquered (1552) Russia has been a continental-size empire. and globalization. many of Russia's original liberals shied away from anything that smacked of patriotism. uniting diverse nations. either in its internal organization or in its relations with other countries. which used to reject geopolitics altogether. nationalists. Russia's ad- 27 .Petersburg) being the unquestioned master of a vast land. In the midst of the politicized debate. democracy building. surprisingly. a universe that was self-contained and largely self-sustained. which was dismissed either as neoimperialism or nationalism. it has to reinvent itself.25 The internationalist/idealist school of Gorbachev and Shevardnadze. The domestic Russian debate on "geopolitics" has been dominated by Realpolitik conservatives. has been marginalized. so that they themselves can deal with more forward-looking issues such as economic reform. At the close of the 20th century. collectively known to the outside world as "Russians".and 400-year old traditions came to an end. several more scholarly volumes have appeared. have paid the issue scant attention. Where will Russia's center of gravity be? This has not been fully realized. Russia simply cannot continue as before. and those who can be described as "nativists". They appear content to leave "retrograde" geopolitics to their opponents. Russia was a world unto itself. the owner of the Winter Palace in St. On the one hand. turned into latter-day geopoliticians. the surviving liberals of the late 1990s. demonstrating the publishers' and the public's preferences. In order to survive. So far.
for example. Finally. they are a useful prism that can offer interesting insights. Russia without Ukraine is certainly a very different Rus- 28 . role in the world.29 True. and (b) Russia minus Ukraine can't be an empire. and relations with its neighbors. but it may not continue in the same fashion indefinitely. Russia's integration within a broader world cannot be achieved without dealing with the practical issues related to space and identity. "It's geopolitics. if any? How relevant are the terms post-Soviet space and the former Soviet Union? Where does Russia itself start? Fitting Russia into both Europe and Asia is a Herculean task. For a postimperial country such as Russia. * * * Borders are superficial by definition. and the pattern of its foreign relations. devising a new Russian national identity is a sine qua non for domestic stability in the country. Russia's attitude to the new borders. carefully studied. the structure of the state. Zbigniew Brzezinski's two famous dictums to the effect that: (a) Russia can be either a democracy or an empire. but mere economics is clearly not enough. no less than anything else. and consistently dealt with. Consider. stupid!" is a patently wrong answer. unless the very real and difficult issues that are rooted in the past are properly identified.Introduction aptation to fundamentally changed geopolitical realities has been remarkably smooth. will help define its identity. but one that can not be avoided if the goal is Europe's security and Asia's relative stability. Where does Europe stop? What is the scope of the Euro-Atlantic community? What is the present political meaning of Eurasia. However. the issue of borders is intimately linked to the nature of the political regime.
Thus. it will again be a very different Russia. It does not. This Eurasia. The global dimension will have been lost forever. If Russia also loses its Far Eastern provinces because of failures on the part of the state or foreign expansion or domination. Russia is essential to the international system by virtue of its unique geographic position in Eurasia. will no longer be just another name for Russia.and mid. it was already too late. treat geopolitics as an end in itself or some supreme science of statecraft. however. Nor does it deny its importance. the book attempts to place geopolitical processes within a broader context of Russia's postcommunist. the Russian Federation includes non-Russian enclaves and the question persists. This author's view is that. however. Geopolitics will remain relevant as long as individual states and their associations continue to be the principal actors on the world arena. albeit in a different form: can Russia become a democratic federation? Despite its poor governance and backward economy.21st century is certainly Eurasia. * * * This book is a study in contemporary Russian and Eurasian geopolitics. The region of the world to watch most closely in the early. especially as it 29 . under the circumstances prevailing at the turn of the 1990s. Rather. post-imperial transformation.Introduction sia. But even without its former "sister" republics. how Russia will organize itself within its current borders will have a significant impact on the domestic Russian regime and indirectly on the international system. as is now fashionable in Russia.30 Whether Russia could have become a democratic empire is a question linked to the broader question of whether Gorbachev's perestroika could have succeeded.
Part One is devoted to Russia's historical experience. The book is organized into three parts and a total of seven chapters. It addresses the potential for Russia's further disintegration and assesses 30 . which is viewed as a break in continuity and a reversal of a 500-year-old trend. It seeks to define the challenges and opportunities that Russia faces along its three geopolitical fronts. Chapter I discusses the historical patterns of Russian territorial state formation and their relevance for any future attempt to restore the imperial territory. including not only academics. students still interested in Russia. Chapters III deals with the West/ Europe. The author was more interested in policy implications than in methodology. It also analyzes the evolution of Moscow's "border policy. journalists. and what is referred to here as the former Eurasia. Finally. All chapters closely examine the link between borders and ethnicity. and Chapter V with the East/Asia. The book is a piece of policy research rather than an academic study. the book is meant for a fairly broad audience. Chapter VI deals with the territorial organization of Russia itself. but also foreign policy experts. looking in particular at the prospects for both recentralization and further regionalization. and looks into the cause of failure of a Eurasian Union. Chapter II is devoted to the implications of the break-up of the Soviet space. Within it.Introduction impacts on its search for a new national and international identity. As such. Part Three is made up of two chapters. It examines the role of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Chapter IV with the South/Muslim world. both imperial (before 1991) and post-imperial (after 1991)." Part Two is regionally oriented.
Francois Denieul.Introduction stabilizing and destabilizing factors at work. Vol. Ian Buruma. Moscow: Progress Publishers. e. 2.10. p. 1969. p.161-162. Transdniestria. and was prepared to suffer losses of over 200 men killed in the action. which separated from Moldova. "Frontieres et territoires" In: Les nouvelles frontieres d'un monde sans frontieres. NagornoKarabakh. Italy (the idea that the richer northern provinces should form a state of their own. May 10." A Reader. Book 1. Even within the United States. Discussing the various options for "fitting Russia" into the wider world.20. the state of New Hampshire uses the text of the 1905 Russo-Japanese Peace Treaty to support its claim to a few tiny islands off Portsmouth.. p. which are also claimed by the neighboring state of Maine. Cahiers No. 1999.A. and the rise of China. Britain fought a war defending its claim to the Falkland Islands. As recently as 1982. and identity. This does not mean. E. 1997. security. Marseilles: Editions de l'Aube.g. Documents.g. p. which declared independence from Azerbaijan. 1. that even the post-industrial states take the issue of borders lightly.. Cf. the challenge of Islamic militancy. "Padania".36 Suffice it to recall the secessionist movements in Canada (Quebec). "What England Means to the English. e. Plain-Sud. interstate boundaries are occasionally disputed. it addresses the implications for Russia of the enlargements of NATO and the EU. 34. Chapter VII examines the link between borders. Pozdnyakov. Cf. etc. Ironically. 2 3 4 5 6 7 31 . NOTES 1 The Tehran. Yalta and Potsdam Conferences." Time. In "Vneshnyaya politika i bezopasnost sovremennoi Rossii. of course... the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland). and leave the poorer cousins in southern Italy to their own devices). Abkhazia and South Ossetia which broke away from Georgia.
1999 14 Ibid. New Year's issue. The realization of their country's backwardness vis-a-vis the West. despite the NAFTA Agreement has not dropped its efforts to stem illegal immigration from Mexico. 16 Zbigniew Brzezinski." p. See Samuel Huntington. Yet. 1996 9 10 Look at Bosnia-Herzegovina.Introduction 8 The Schengen Agreement is a good example of this situation. Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. 1999. has been the traditional incentive for reform in Russia. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. Nagorno-Karabakh. p.. The above-mentioned report by IEA argues that "should the trend toward degradation of demographic and economic potentials continue". Pozdnyakov. "Vneshnyaya politika i bezopasnost sovremennoi Rossii.cit." Izvestia. especially from the poorer countries of the east and the south. a Moscow State University scholar pro- 32 . does not rule out Russia's disintegration within 10 to 15 years. 13 Source: Institute of Economic Analysis (Moscow). New York: Basic Books. on the other. op. In 1999. from Peter the Great to Stalin to Gorbachev to Putin. and the awareness of the abundance of resources. Walter Mead suggested a price of $2. A. See Andrei Illarionov. in his first major article published on the Internet and reprinted by Nezavisimaya gazeta of December 30. 1997. Obshchaya gazeta." 15 However. April 28. New York: Simon and Schuster. such a prominent Russian intellectual as Sergei Karaganov. through the loss of territory. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. it is getting harder for outsiders.87 17 In 1992. at the same time he joined in the call for the restoration of Russia's great power status. The United States. 11 Quoted by E. for its part.' as a rule. had to concede that Russia held 71st place among the nations of the world in terms of its standard of living. "Rossiya na sovremennoy karte mira. on the one hand.3 trillion (Alaska was purchased for $7. December 1999/January 2000.33 12 Vladimir Putin. Even as movement of people becomes easier within the European Union.5 million).. to find their way into the Union. or Chechnya. the "disproportions" that result will eventually be "'adjusted.
In 2000. Korea. 1999..g. Sergei Lopatnikov. A critique of this point of view is given notably by Steven Sestanovich in: "Giving Russia Its Due. 3—12. of course. 22 Vladimir Putin claimed in January 2000 that the presence of ethnic Russians in former Soviet republics was a prime rationale for the existence of the CIS. In Ukraine. " Novye izvestia. 1998. Moscow: 1997.S. 416p. p. Gennady Zyuganov (leader of the Communist Party). Summer 1994. October 25. 25 Cf. Gadzhiev. Henry Kissinger.15 20 As Anatol Lieven aptly observed. "Strategicheskuyu ugrozu my pochti promorgali. second edition. 21 In Soviet times.488. (Introduction to Geopolitics). Moscow: Progress. 23 Russia." National Interest. Istoriya russkoi kultury. " Financial Times. Vvedenie v geopolitiku. Kazakhstan. 1993 19 Dominique Moïsi. is not unique among the former Soviet republics to face a similar problem. 24 Cf.25. part 2. 1999. and Russia as its principal "shareholders".1. Alexei Mitrofanov ("shadow foreign minister" of Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party). p. Germany. Shagi geopoilitiki (Geopolitical Steps). "The Last Gasp of a Former Superpower. China. 26 K.. Pavel Milyukov. Estonia. Moscow: Logos. Moscow: 1997. p. e. 1994. May 27. Diplomacy. Geografia pobedy (Geography of Victory). 1999.4 18 Cf.Introduction posed turning Siberia into a "limited liability company" with America. Vol. Latvia. New York: Simon and Schuster. 33 . p. Cf. Moscow: 1997. in the 18th and 19th centuries it was possible for an unconverted German nobleman to own thousands of Russian serfs. an Israeli immigrant from Uzbekistan in a conversation with the author even used the phrase soyuzny alphabet when he was actually referring to the Russian alphabet. Alexander Dugin (a scholar with good connections to the Russian military) Osnovy geopolitiki (Fundamentals of Geopolitics). Japan. there was a widespread use of the words Soyuz and soyuzny. p. and some other countries the issue of building citizenship-based nations is no less relevant.
would make the rest firmly "Asian. 254 p. but the secession of the northern provinces. 28 Andrei Kozyrev. Moscow: Stradiz FIAMR. Bolshaya shakhmatnaya igra. but also Tatarstan. One could also point to Kto soyuzniki Rossii by Vadim Makarenko. 336 p. The Russian Federation within its present borders is arguably an empire. Preobrazhenie. Moscow: 1999. 1995.Introduction 27 Zbigniew Brzezinski. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order. The best book on the subject by a liberal academic-turnedpolitician is Alexei Arbatov's Bezopasnost Rossii. and. in a yet broader sense. granitsy. 2000." 34 . which includes not only the North Caucasus. (Diplomacy). 1994. (The Grand Chessboard). Samuel R. Novosibirsk: Sibirskiy Khronograf. Siberia and the Far East. 30 This doesn't apply to Russia alone: in its present borders. Henry Kissinger. 29 Much depends on the definition of an empire. the most interesting scholarly study is Igor Yakovenko's Rossiyskoe gosudarstvo: natsionalnye interesy. Moscow: Simon and Schuster. Diplomatiya. Huntington. Moscow: 1998. 1999. 222 p. if this occurred. New York: Simon and Schuster 1996. Kazakhstan is perhaps the only genuinely "Eurasian" state. perspektivy. Bashkortostan. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya.
Part One A FAREWELL TO THE EMPIRE .
No wonder that the remedy that many propose is to become big again. which was buried a decade ago. Not everyone would agree with Ronald Reagan's description of the USSR as an evil empire. In other words. the desire for territorial revanchism among the youth is a serious warning signal. or better still. to the Russian Empire. back to the USSR. at about the time of Vladimir Putin's election as President of Russia. and therefore respected worldwide. in the popularity of Nikita Mikhalkov's film "The Barber of Siberia. Those who have grown up in the Soviet Union are equally aware of all of its facets: space launches as well as the Gulag. the USSR was just an empire and a state that was feared. with its third-rate world status and almost Third World living standards. is despised and disparaged.In a poll of Moscow high school students about the country's frontiers conducted in the spring of 2000." and in the quo- 37 . great power ambitions as well as shortages of basic foodstuffs. over half the respondents said they favored the restoration of the Russian Empire within either the pre-revolutionary or the Soviet-era frontiers. The Russian Federation. To some in the younger age group. Although this certainly does not mean that students are nostalgic for the Soviet internal order (only 12 percent of those polled wanted a return to the old regime). but both the evil and the empire are deeply engraved in their memory. Nostalgia for the Russian Empire is evident in the pomp of Kremlin ceremonies. with no direct adult experience of the Soviet Union.
difficult international problems will emerge. For a country searching for its new identity. In other words. When however it has an impact on the world view of decision-makers. A Farewell to the Empire tation from Alexander III displayed on the wall of the General Staff Academy (formerly the Voroshilov Academy) in Moscow: "Russia has only two true friends in the world. it can raise concern. but the real questions concern long-term trends. the value and relevance of historical experience is of prime importance. what is the correlation of forces between historical continuities and discontinuities in Russia's territorial status at the beginning of the third millennium? 38 ." As a cultural phenomenon. The book starts with the discussion of the patterns of territorial growth and contraction in Russian history and their implications. its army and its navy.Part One. this nostalgia is not a cause for worry. If such nostalgia is translated into a policy program.
and is generally regarded as "negative." and a "histori- H 39 . factual reality is overtaken by a parallel reality of perceptions. The way people read history has an impact on their collective behavior. traditional geopolitics has regarded states as living organisms aspiring to "natural" borders. there has always been something sacred about the country's territory and borders. In the Russian tradition. According to the philosopher Ivan Ilyin. It attempts to define the models of territorial enlargement and discuss their relevance for the future. Russia was "an organism of nature and spirit. even despite itself. was "doomed by history to grow. with its Soviet tradition of constantly rewriting history. This chapter examines the importance of territory and territorial acquisitions in Russian history. Konstantin Leontiev. Often.CHAPTER I The Spacial Dimension of Russian History istory is usually what people make of it."2 Hence its territory was considered as the "terrestrial habitat of national spirit. this rings more true than elsewhere. while asking the question: "Will history repeat itself?" No less important is the history of Russia's territorial contraction." The central problem here is: can Russia hold itself together and develop as a nonempire? Ever since Friedrich Ratzel developed his theories of political geography."1 and in the words of another philosopher. In Russia. which is far less known.
Part One. A Farewell to the Empire
cally given and accepted spiritual pasture of the people,"3 and a "sacred space."4 Consequently, while growth was natural, any dismemberment of the composite whole, Russian theorists constantly warned, was not only unnatural or tantamount to sacrilege, but bound to have catastrophic consequences. This "organism" was held to be coterminous with Eurasia — a vast area in the north-central part of the continent ruled from Moscow or St. Petersburg.5 Western European countries have traditionally looked with suspicion, sometimes mixed with awe, at the territorial expansion of the Russian state, which they perceived as an enormous geographical overhang. "For centuries," Henry Kissinger wrote, "imperialism has been Russia's basic foreign policy as it has expanded from the region around Moscow to the shores of the Pacific, the gates of the Middle East and the center of Europe, relentlessly subjugating weaker neighbors and seeking to overawe those not under its direct control." "Torn between obsessive insecurity and the proselytizing zeal," Kissinger wrote elsewhere, "Russia on the march rarely showed a sense of limits; thwarted, it tended to withdraw into sullen resentment."6 This expansion, of course, was not unique to Russia: other European empires grew at the same time and, like Russia, they stopped when they encountered strong opposition. Moreover, like America in pursuit of Manifest Destiny, Russia also marched to the Pacific, moving its border eastward until it reached the water's edge. Historically, Russia was an archetypal continental empire, having virtually no overseas possessions, with the exception of Alaska, which lay only 90 miles away from the Chukotka shoreline.7 This contiguity of the territory is often used to stress the "special" and "natural" character of the Russian Empire. This argument is traditionally sup-
Chapter I. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History
ported by several instances of the "voluntary accession" of various territories to Russia. Some historians have found cases of aggression and annexation to be extremely rare in Russian history,8 and have portrayed even outright conquests as driven, essentially, by Russia's need for security and for "settling in".9 Others argue that the Russian people has never oppressed others; instead, they populated wastelands, peacefully assimilated other ethnic groups, and offered them military protection.10 In this chapter we will first explore the factors — both geographical and cultural — behind the movement of Russia's borders, and then will examine the many historical models of Russian expansion and contraction. We will pose the question of whether Russia suffers from territorial obsession and whether the emerging Russian idea is, like the old myths about Russia's mission, inextricably linked to a certain shape of the country's borders.
Factors Behind the Territorial Enlargement
Geographical Factors
In a strictly geographical sense, Russia as a country has always lacked clear boundaries. The landscape of its European portion is a vast monotonous plain, lacking mountain ranges or other natural barriers that would divide it into distinct sectors or set it apart from neighbors. This has had important consequences. When Russia was weak, nature offered it little protection; but when it grew strong, there were few geographical barriers to stop it from projecting its power in virtually all directions. Traveling from Russia to the heart of Europe meant crossing forests and fording rivers, and avoiding marshes
Part One. A Farewell to the Empire
whenever possible. The distances involved were substantial, but the obstacles were rather few. The lack of good roads and the severity of the climate, rather than wide streams or mountain ranges, were factors that set Russia apart. In modern times, most of the invasions that Russia experienced came from the west. The Poles in the 17th century, the Swedes in the 18th, the French in the 19th, and the Germans in the 20th all posed credible threats to Russia's independence. The historic memory of almost falling into enemy hands — in 1610-1612, in 1812, and finally in 1941, when the Germans were within 20 kilometers of Moscow before they could be turned back — lives on as a warning to Kremlin leaders. Russia looks toward Asia across its steppes, which in the Russian language are usually defined as "boundless," beskrainiye. The classical Russian historians regarded the steppe as an "Asiatic wedge that extends deep into Europe."11 From the Huns to the Mongols, these steppes offered a broad corridor for Asian hordes en route to Europe. Asian invaders kept Russia captive for almost 250 years, and even after that continued to threaten Moscow for another century.12 The memory of these historically more distant threats is also present in the Russian collective psyche. Due to the absence of natural barriers of protection, it made strategic sense to meet the enemy as far from the core territory as possible. Territorial expansion was originally mandated by the sheer need for survival. In the words of Ivan Ilyin, "one either had to perish as a result of perennial raids or rebuff them, pacify the plain through armed force, and [then] develop it."13 Since the 15th century, the requirement "to win space" and thus deny it to a potential adversary has become "an axiom."14
Chapter I. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History
Thus, the Russians have learned to compensate for their initial geographical vulnerability by means of territorial expansion. Over time, this "strengthening of borders" became a euphemism for acquiring more and more land — in the name of self-defense, but for the purposes of an eventual counter-offensive or simple offensive. Since potential adversaries were all around, the Russians had to organize a circular defense. In doing so, the Russian state followed the pattern of the city of Moscow, where the Kremlin is the nucleus of a concentric system of fortifications (Kitai-Gorod, Bely Gorod, now the Boulevard Ring, and Zemlyanoi Gorod, now the Garden Ring). Thus, each new circle of fortresses and monasteries represented a "new success in the counteroffensive of Greater Russia."15 This pattern of expansion is by no means unique to Russia: take, for example, France in the 15th-17th centuries. What is different is the scale and quality of the process. To most Russians — at least the bulk of the nation living on the wide easternmost periphery of Europe — the geographical boundary between Europe and Asia running along the Ural Mountains carries little meaning. Russian territorial expansion did not stop for long at the Ural Mountains. At the highest point, the mountains reach 1,894 meters, but in the central part of the range, near the city of Yekaterinburg, most areas lie between 300 and 500 meters above sea level, and thus are fairly easy to cross. Less than 50 years separate the takeover of Kazan on the Volga (1552) from the annexation of the Siberian khanate on the Irtysh (1598), 500 miles east of the Urals. The Russians were bewildered by the phrase crafted in the early 1960s by President Charles de Gaulle of "Eu-
Part One. A Farewell to the Empire
rope from the Atlantic to the Urals." They were heartened by the implication that their country was regarded as European, and they never doubted that Central Asia and much of the Caucasus lay outside the sphere of European culture, but they couldn't see why Siberia and the Russian Far East were to be separated in any meaningful way from European Russia. What to Western European eyes looked like a natural barrier at which to stop, was to the Soviets the geographical center of their country. Nikita Khrushchev at about the same time was playing with the idea of moving the capital of the Russian republic from Moscow to Sverdlovsk, now (again) Yekaterinburg. Geography makes Russia Eurasian. This description has important implications. To many a European, this means "not one of us." Czech President Vaclav Havel, for example, uses this characteristic to argue that Russia can never belong to Europe. To virtually all Asians, there is no question of regarding Russia as an Asian country. To a number of Russian traditionalists, however, this special position gives Russia a license to pursue a "third way," neither European nor Asian. The question of borders naturally becomes a question of political, economic, and social orientation. Geography is not enough, it must be supplemented by a discussion of cultural links.
Cultural Factors
In many a debate on Russia's identity, geopolitics and civilization become mixed up. From a common Russian point of view, either Europe stretches all the way to the North Pacific (which would be most Russians' preference) or, alternatively, Asia begins east of Poland. Since both propositions are equally difficult to sustain, and the philosophical "eternal
Chapter I. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History
question" of Russia's place in the world is likely to continue to provoke debate for quite some time, many pragmatic Russians have adopted the notion of Russia as a "land bridge" between the "real" Europe, meaning Western Europe, and the "genuine" Asia of the Far East. This is deemed to be the geographical foundation of the theory of Russia's very own "third way" in world affairs, neither fully European nor Asian, but offering a unique amalgam. But what about non-Western Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus? It has become commonplace to lay emphasis on the uniqueness of Russian culture and civilization and believe that the country's mission is to unify the entire Eurasian landmass.16 This was the underlying ideology of the Russian Empire since Peter the Great. The goal was almost achieved in the early 1950s when the Soviet Army stood on the Elbe and the Danube, and China was briefly affiliated with the Soviet bloc. After the demise of the USSR, however, the uncertainty of Russia's position has again come to the fore. Some would go as far as to call Russia a gigantic borderland17, which could shift either way — to the east or to the west. Though the country clearly originated, under the first Kievan princes, as the easternmost advance of European Christendom, it later served — for example, during the 240 years of Mongolian rule — as Asia's bridgehead in Europe. The craving to be admitted to Europe, on very special terms, accompanied by the threat to join forces with the powers of Asia was, if not accepted by the West, the underlying theme of post-communist Russia's approach to Europe. Of course, both "Europe" and "Asia" are above all mental constructs, but the conscious self-identification of Russia's political elite with Europe or Eurasia has defined
Part One. A Farewell to the Empire
the practical policies of the Russian state.18 In reality, the predominance of European elements in Russian culture and civilization is hardly in question, it is equally clear that, in geopolitical terms, Russia is located in both Europe and Asia. A way out of the apparent dilemma would be to distinguish between the cultural and the geographical. In other words, to stress Russia's Europeanness and at the same time to highlight its position in Asia. Again, Russia is not unique: take, for instance Turkey in its relations with Europe or Australia and its links to Asia. A European country in Europe and Asia is not the same thing as a Eurasian country. Eurasianism is a dead end: a pretentious neither-nor position erects an unnecessary barrier on the Russian-European border, while doing nothing to strengthen Russia's position in Asia, or even the greater Middle East. Before we deal in Chapter Two with the implications of the collapse of the Soviet empire, we need to analyze briefly the ways the empire was created, or, to put it differently, historical models of the inclusion and integration of various territories within the expanding Russian state. These models are more than of historical interest: as we will demonstrate, from the perspective of various Russian political forces they can and do serve as examples to emulate in the future.
The Models of Expansion
The Collecting of Lands Model
This most ancient model has traditionally applied to Russian and eastern Slav territories. It has gone through three phases, which can be regarded as three distinct historical drives:
annexed through armed force. This created a new identity. but rather as the tsars' "coming into what was theirs" and were popularly characterized as acts of liberation of fellow Orthodox Ukrainians and Belarussians from Catholic Polish rule. (b) the 17th-18th centuries.19 As a result. who were endowed with a keen — and self-serving — sense of history. and saw themselves as the direct heirs of the Kievan princes. (c) the 1930s-1940s The first phase was the formation of the Great Russian State. with Moscow as its capital. heretofore fragmented. or otherwise acquired the territory of fellow Russian principalities. the Moscow princes. Within 200 years. the whole of northeastern Russia. was unified. which was common to many other countries in Europe. The second phase concerned the western and southwestern parts of ancient Kievan Rus. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History (a) the 14th-16th centuries. The tsars. managed to "collect the Russian lands". The decision in 1654 by a Ukrainian Cossack Rada to seek the protection of the Moscow tsar was symbolic for Russia and later marked the reunification of Ukraine with Russia. This was made possible through many wars with Poland in the 17th century and finally its partitioning three times in the second half of the 18th.Chapter I. however. and later grand dukes. 47 . were set on restoring their forefathers' possessions. The first phase of the consolidation of Russian lands was an essential part of the process of building a centralized monarchy. They bought up. that the new territorial acquisitions were not regarded by Russia as annexations. From the late 15th and especially the 16th centuries the word "Russia" became commonly used. It is important to note. from the early 14th century through the early 16th.
14th-16th Centuries 48 . A Farewell to the Empire Map: Collection of Russian Lands.Part One.
The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Map: Collection of Lands. 17th-18th Centuries 49 .Chapter I.
A Farewell to the Empire Map: Collection of Russian Lands.Part One. 20th Century 50 .
but never became an ideology for territorial acquisition. As early as 1990. this led to a de-facto reunification of Ukrainian and Belarussian lands within the USSR. Ukraine and Belarus. more often de- 51 . proposed by the British twenty years earlier. the political unity of the Ukrainian nation is a lasting legacy of Josef Stalin. The apparently strong arguments in favor of building a pan-Slavist empire were never translated into actual policy-making. This most ancient model of Russian territorial statebuilding has not lost its appeal entirely. Those traditionalists and nationalists in Russia who recognize the impossibility or the undesirability of a full restoration of the USSR believe that "collecting Russian lands" is still feasible.Chapter I. Stalin followed in the footsteps of Nicholas II. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History The fourth partition of Poland resulted from a narrowminded strategic pact between Hitler and Stalin in 1939 that trampled on the sovereignty of weaker states. Russia. the Nobel Prize winning author and thinker Alexander Solzhenitsyn publicized a plan of a "Russian Union" that would include the Russian Federation. and Russian-populated provinces of northern Kazakhstan. Belarus. Ironically. It is interesting to note that this model was limited to the areas populated by the eastern Slavs. In the first week after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. the "collecting of Ukrainian lands" was complete. The rest were not immediately invited join. the CIS functioned as a pact among three republics. This idea. Nonetheless. Ukraine. In Western Ukraine. or Galicia. PanSlavism remained a tool of imperial foreign policy looking for spheres of influence. With the annexation of northern Bukovina in 1940 and Ruthenia in 1945. whose western border now followed the ethnically based Curzon line. whose Army occupied the province at the start of World War I and held it until 1915.
According to the same logic. Ukraine.21 This predominantly peasant colonization was the equivalent of the settlement of North America. From the very beginning of Russian history. and Yugoslavia. the Russian historian Vassily Klyuchevsky wrote. or at least its northern part." still has many adherents. it has. and applied to Siberia and the Far East. or at least the four-fifths of it that existed before 1939. will gravitate toward Russia. migrations were soon fitted into the Russian state policy. It is true that Russia acquired more land area through relatively peaceful colonization than through outright conquest. on the one hand. Although originally spontaneous. will move in the same direction. continuing attempts to achieve a full state fusion between Russia and Belarus are seen as a first step in crafting such a union of Slavs. As to Pan-Slavism. resurfaced as a rhetorical figure of speech rather than a policy proposal in the calls made at the height of the war in Kosovo for a union of Russia. and reach a moderate level of prosperity. Belarus. The history of Russia. A Farewell to the Empire scribed as a "Slav Union. relaunch its economy. There are those who argue that should Russia bring its house in order. The strengths and weaknesses of this argument will be discussed in Chapter II. The Moving of Borders (Colonization) Model This model was in operation from the 16th through the 19th centuries. there has existed a fundamental distinction between Russia's borders in the west. interestingly.20 In a more practical way. is a history of a country in the process of colonization.22 It is enough to look at the vast expanses of Siberia and northern Russia. northern Kazakhstan and the Don-Kuban area.Part One. Kazakhstan. and the south 52 .
53 Map: The March of Russian Colonization .
only the current limit of Russian peasant colonization. and as far south as the Terek rivers. The clash at Albazin in 1688-1689. The Russian government soon concluded that it could defend itself against the Crimean tatars' devastating raids only if the local population of the borderlands was prepared to defend itself.24 This readily reminds one of the 19th century American frontier or the pattern of the Spanish and Portuguese advance in South America. warriors when attacked. whole districts in the southern and southeastern parts of Russia were regarded as insecure borderlands. of course. In the south. Russia encountered no organized states in the eastern direction — until the Russian advance reached the Chinese-dominated territories along the Amur and Argun rivers. the typical border in the south and the southeast was a wide stretch of land. toward the Urals and beyond. Hence."23 In contrast to that. set a temporary limit to the Russian expansion. a limit. 54 . The border with European countries was a more or less a clear line: Vassily Klyuchevsky observed that "everything a Russian sees in Europe imposes on him a concept of a border. A Farewell to the Empire and east. where the Russians were defeated by the Manchus and the Chinese.Part One. from 1600 on. Russian peasants fleeing the oppression of their landlords from the second half of the 16th century. established free Cossack settlements along the Don. no clear lines drawn through the nomad-populated steppe or very sparsely populated taiga. In the east. As a result. the Kuban. there was virtually no border of any kind. the essence of Cossack culture was: peasants in peacetime. on the other. subjected to the ebbs and flows of nomadic invasions. there could be. Thus. After the annexation of Kazan and the defeat of the much weaker Siberian khanate. a clear finality.
It also extended the settlement drive in a northern direction. relying on a fleet of icebreakers to clear the way. a reverse process has set in. and Chile. to large chunks of Antarctica. Russia finds it extremely difficult to maintain a presence in the northern and eastern outposts of the former empire. and the Northern Sea Route from Murmansk to Vladivostok became operational. however. the result was grandiose. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Still.25 To many. the government pursued a coherent and largely successful policy of sponsoring mass migration from the European provinces of the empire to Siberia and the Russian Far East. In the early 20th century. Not only are there no free territories to move into but given the declining birth rate among Russians and the collapse of the Soviet-era industrial and social infrastructure. including Britain. and the Virgin Lands of Northern Kazakhstan. Many northern settlements. this model cannot be repeated. Hundreds of thousands of people were invited or ordered to the Far East.Chapter I. all the way to the Arctic and the North Pole. Siberia. but on a less voluntary basis. Russian settlers crossed Siberia and reached the shores of the Pacific Ocean. Within less than 100 years. In 1926. At present. expansion across Siberia all the way toward the Pacific and North America (Alaska) looked very much like Russia's exercising its manifest destiny. The Soviet regime continued and intensified this effort. too cost- 55 ." This is not dissimilar from the claims made roughly in the same period by several countries. the Soviet government lay claim to a vast sector of the Arctic as the "polar possessions of the USSR. The settlement of the north for economic and military purposes became one of the Soviet Union's first heroic sagas. under Prime Minister Pyotr Stolypin. Cities were built north of the Polar circle. Australia.
and finally Crimea (1783) in order to remove residual threats.Part One. was "essentially a military empire. have been abandoned. 16th and 17th-century Russia strove to gain access to the seas. it is singled out here as a separate model to describe Russian acquisitions in the west and the south from the 16th through the 20th centuries. the strategic borders model. On all fronts and in all periods of its history. Unless the Russian government devises a way to manage the situation. and Ottoman Turkey and enter into direct contact with Europe. was a leitmotif throughout Russian history. it moved to annex the successor states of the Golden Horde. A virtually landlocked country along its western frontier. so as to lift the de-facto blockade by Sweden. the frontiers may move again. This predicament will be discussed in more detail in Chapters II and V. Poland. Fast depopulation and general decay are destroying the fruits of the efforts of Stolypin and the Soviet Union. This task was completed in the course of the 18th century when the Russian state assumed full control over 56 . Astrakhan (1556). Once it finally threw off the Mongol ("Tartar") yoke in 1480. Russia has resorted to annexations for purely strategic reasons. bearing in mind that the resource base has become so much narrower than under the tsarist or Soviet regimes. stamp out the sources of predatory raids into Russia. The Strategic Borders Model The Russian Empire.27 and free avenues for further Russian political and economic expansion. in its broader sense. this time in the opposite direction."26 As briefly discussed above. A Farewell to the Empire ly to maintain. its one-time Prime Minister Sergei Witte wrote. Kazan (1552).
with the concept of buffer states. As a powerful traditional empire. and the like. Through its control of the eastern shores of the Baltic and the northern and eastern shores of the Black Sea. to control the Straits. However. the Caspian was only of marginal importance. The first group included the territories that were deemed to be of vital importance. Russia has had to deal. again and again. spheres of influence. the Caspian virtually became a Russian lake. one more successful and the other not. in the 19th century.Chapter I. The Transcaucasus. and the outlet to the Black Sea was controlled by the Ottomans. Russia established its powerful presence in both of these bodies of water. Finland was annexed by the empire in 1809 as a buffer against Sweden. Russia has been trying. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History the entire length of all the great rivers that originate in the Great Russian plain. performed the same function vis-a-vis the Ottomans on the Balkan flank. Eventually. annexed in 1812. Having secured Russia's gains in the Baltic. Peter the Great embarked in 1722 on a conquest of northern Persia. Some of these geopolitical buffers were incorporated into the realm. Much of Central Asia was included into the Russian Empire in the second half of the 19th century in the course 57 . thus effectively putting St. unsuccessfully. and Bessarabia. annexed between 1801 and 1829. From Catherine the Great's 1780 "Greek project" of creating a neo-Byzantine empire with a Russian tsarevich for an emperor to Stalin's 1946 demands on Turkey (which ultimately drove it into NATO's arms). At the same time. became a similar buffer against Turkey and Iran. were part of a single project. down to their estuaries. Displacing them has become a long-standing Russian obsession. The two exercises.Petersburg out of reach of the potential enemy. Russia sought access to the southern seas. others were allowed nominal freedom.
Mongolia. which then ruled Manchuria (Manchukuo). did not represent an overwhelming military threat. The cordon was still more of a defensive wall than a marching ground for a 58 . to create buffer zones in northern Iran and eastern Turkestan (Uighuristan. After the Bolshevik Revolution. In the Far East. After Japan's defeat. but the neighboring states. Russia and Britain agreed to treat Afghanistan as a neutral buffer between the two empires and divided up Iran into respective spheres of influence.29 In the 1930s. which successfully used the province as a base for the takeover of the entire country (1946-1949). In the late 19th and early 20th centuries. or more difficult to incorporate. the cordon sanitaire was regarded as a hostile pro-Western buffer. While Kokand in the Fergana valley was annexed. Iran and Afghanistan retained their role as buffers — including during the Cold War — until 1978-1979. the Empire allowed Bukhara and Khiva to carry on as nominally independent states. especially Poland and Romania. nominally independent Mongolia served as a Soviet buffer against Japan.Part One.28 The perceived threat of Afghanistan's being turned over to the U. which was also becoming highly active at the time in India and the Middle East. and the Uryanhai territory (now Tuva). Stalin sought. A Farewell to the Empire of the Great Game with Britain. through aid to local pro-Communist forces. Xingjiang). though designated by the Soviet General Staff as likely adversaries. the Soviet Union used its military presence in Manchuria to arm the Chinese Communist forces. The second group included territories whose importance to Russia was considered to be less than vital. the Russian sphere at the turn of the 20th century included Manchuria.-controlled "zone" was probably the one decisive factor in favor of Soviet military intervention there in December 1979.S.
Stalin drew some lessons from his past mistakes. 1941.000 casualties but made Finland agree to a transfer of even more territory (eastern Karelia and the isthmus) to the USSR.Chapter I. After the end of the war.31 The bitter Winter War followed in which the Red Army suffered 250. In late November 1939. It was the momentous geostrategic shifts of 1938-1939 in Europe that made Stalin look for more secure borders. there was no longer a Poland to take a little blitz from the German krieg. Tragically but also ironically. which indeed occurred on June 22.500 km long common border with Germany and its satellites. At that time. already under attack from the Wehrmacht. Stalin proceeded to occupy and then Sovietize the Baltic States because he could not trust them as allies in the coming conflict with Germany. carving up Eastern Europe with Hitler in 1939-1940 did not buy the Soviet Union more security. and with no compensation. a mission impossible by any account. In 1940.30 he preferred to advance Russia's own defenses in a secret agreement with Germany carving up Eastern Europe (the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of August 1939 and the Soviet-German treaty of September 1939). Stalin placed the USSR in danger of a potentially massive and surprise German attack. At the conferences with the West- 59 . The Spacial Dimension of Russian History large-scale invasion. Instead of relying on anti-Soviet buffers to hold out against German pressure. In mid-September 1939 the Soviet troops marched into eastern Poland. Stalin launched an attack on Finland after the Helsinki government had refused a Soviet offer of territorial exchange that would have put Leningrad outside of the range of artillery fire from Finland. also under the secret agreement with Hitler. Having gotten rid of the buffer states and having received instead a 1.
With one-third of Poland's post-1945 territory previously German-held.Part One. which was moved hundreds of kilometers west to the Oder-Western Neisse line. The "hostile encirclement" of the inter-war period had now been broken through. its population totally removed — ethnically cleansed. Eastern Prussia. Romania lost the strategically situated Snake Island in the Black Sea. A Farewell to the Empire ern allies. Thus. which was about to start.33 60 . he successfully insisted that the forward base of the potential German advance toward the east. After these territorial changes. and Port Arthur on the Yellow Sea once again (as in 18981905) became a Russian naval base. which became Russian Pechenga). and had to lease out the Porkkala Udd naval base to the USSR. in the end-of-the century phraseology — and the territory divided between the USSR and Poland. and escape a new surprise attack. Warsaw was turned into an automatic member of any future coalition to contain a resurgent Germany. Japan was to cede southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Stalin sought to make the Soviet fortress impregnable. A solid buffer state was erected between the Soviet Union and the defeated Germany. the Soviet Union was generally satisfied with its borders — both in terms of its sovereign territory and in terms of the actual political control that it now exercised.32 He further prevailed on the issue of the German-Polish border. which was then internationally recognized. be eliminated altogether. Expanding the strategic Vorfeld. Poland was compensated for accepting the Curzon line in the east. Stalin made similar precautions vis-a-vis the other former adversaries. Finland lost its access to the Arctic (Petseri. These sovereign bases and naval outposts were to become instruments of a Soviet forward presence in the Cold War.
It was enough for Germany to be truncated. deprived of the territories east of the OderWestern Neisse line.Chapter I. Communist ideology was initially utilized as a means toward this end. where "borders have flowed back and forth like rivers over flood plains. Throughout the 40 years of that confrontation."34 had as its primary motive the creation a strategic defensive buffer against a possible future clash with Germany. The borders of the "socialist community" essentially marked the strategic perimeter of the USSR." 61 . International disapproval was not the only reason for his moderation. and later with the United States and its NATO allies. it was the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet military presence in Eastern Europe. The stubborn resistance in the Winter War in the former case and the fervor of Polish nationalism in the latter persuaded the dictator that they would serve Soviet interests better as external buffers rather than as imperfectly integrated provinces. rather than the trade and economic association of COMECON and "socialist economic integration" that was the linchpin of the Soviet-led system. however. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Interestingly. must have been just the opposite — with all the attendant consequences. the area between Germany and Russia. His judgment on the Baltics. which was seen as a "nest of German aggression against the Slavs. and became more important only with the advent of the Cold War confrontation with the United States. The Sovietization of the historical Mitteleuropa. and especially of East Prussia. Stalin did not insist on Finland's or Poland's reincorporation into his realm. Stalin's fear of a German nationalist resurgence based on the post-Versailles experience must have been his motive in 1945 when he rejected Western plans for dismemberment of the German state.
Finland received confirmation of its sovereignty in exchange for "friendly neutrality" vis-a-vis the USSR. With the advent of confrontation between blocs in Europe. However. Or else. together with Harry Truman. once incorporated into the USSR. Baltic independence was not restored. military base on the continent of Europe. when the Soviet Union decided to build the Berlin Wall. After the Prague coup of February 1948 and the Berlin blockade of 1948-1949. the Soviet Union discovered the usefulness of neutral buffers. breeding a German nationalist revival. Aiding proCommunist revolutionaries and using or abandoning them 62 . and prohibited from joining Germany. even when Germany and Berlin actually became divided with the start of the Cold War. the Soviet policy oscillated between the option of German unification (on the sine qua non condition of its neutralization) and the consolidation of Eastern Germany. however.Part One.S. Stalin's policies helped bring about the latter result. he feared. where at one point he pressed for a UN mandate for Libya. Elsewhere. but only by 1961. Stalin attempted. which was reconstituted as a neutral state. he could be called. albeit half-heartedly and unsuccessfully. to pursue the tsars' unfulfilled or unconsolidated agenda — from Ardahan and Kars and the Turkish Straits and beyond to the Mediterranean. there was no way out. a founding father of NATO. A Farewell to the Empire A permanent division. Ironically. it would turn Western Germany into the premier U. The withdrawal of Western forces from Austria also meant that NATO would be unable to use it as a land bridge between its forces in central Europe (Germany) and southern Europe (Italy). The second option finally prevailed. Moscow finally agreed in 1955 to withdraw its forces from Austria. could become counterproductive. In a 1948 treaty.
represented by the chief ideologue. was allegedly about to change sides and. a change in circumstances would usually turn a defensive buffer zone into a staging area for new expansion. That consideration tilted the balance in favor of intervention. The territorial satisfaction expressed by the Soviet leadership concerning their own country's borders was genuine: after 1945. as by the reports that the Afghan pro-Communist leader at the time. to Moscow's general satisfaction. the strategic borders were less precise. by surprise. including Brezhnev and Prime Minister Alexei Kosygin. Along the southern perimeter. Washington and Moscow. were quite happy with Afghanistan as a buffer. and only a minority. he sought to create buffer zones in northern Iran (Iranian Azerbaijan). Hafizulla Amin. the So- 63 . and his associate Boris Ponomaryov favored extension of the socialist community toward the Middle East. were classic buffer states between the USSR and the West.Chapter I. which took both Cold War adversaries. as a token of his new allegiance. the USSR borders remained stable until the country's breakup in 1991. Iran and Afghanistan. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History as he saw fit. Most Soviet leaders. Throughout most of the Cold War. as Western media speculated at the time. The change in their geopolitical status in 1978-1979 came as a result of internal developments in those countries. and Manchuria. Moscow's blundering decision to intervene in Afghanistan in 1979 was prompted not so much by an urge to seize upon an opportunity to project its power southward and put its tactical air force within reach of the Strait of Hormuz. welcome the US missile launch monitoring stations that Iran had just closed down. As Stalin was an opportunist. For the first time. Uighurstan (Xinjiang). Mikhail Suslov.
Like the medieval city of Moscow. In the 1950s and 1960s. Stalin's successors broadened the horizons of Soviet foreign policy and effectively extended the country's strategic boundaries even further afield. using brutal methods as he saw fit (in East Germany in 1953. Soviet strategic gains) were irreversible. India. Poland. The Brezhnev Doctrine clearly stated that Communist regimes (i. Korea.e. Indonesia. which ultimately made it unsustainable. running along the borders of the socialist community countries. It was the reluctant decision in 1979 to intervene by force in Afghanistan— in the name of the "historic irreversibility" of the strategic gains — that 64 . The USSR itself. A Farewell to the Empire viet Union felt safe from a conventional attack across its borders. and Latin America — with the sole exception of Cuba. and Vietnam. assured by powerful Soviet forces: in East Germany. had maximum protection. It was only the outer ring of "socialist-oriented" countries. and Hungary. extending to the Middle East. Khrushchev not only consolidated the Soviet Union's power position in Europe. and for good reason. which had been the tsars' and Stalin's habitat. Africa. the Soviet Union established its presence and influence in countries as far away as Egypt. These borders were now in a deep rear area. for the first time in history. and demonstrated that in Czechoslovakia in 1968. he also managed to break the USSR free from Eurasia. the Soviet Union had several defensive rings. The inner ring. over which Khrushchev almost risked a nuclear war with the United States in 1962 — that allowed for some ebbs and flows. sacrosanct as the Kremlin. was essentially secure. The lines of confrontation were drawn on foreign territory: Germany. and Cuba. and Hungary and Poland in 1956). Eastern Europe.Part One. This elaborate construct required enormous resources. Czechoslovakia.
65 Map: Strategic Borders .
however. The view that Russia should use the Commonwealth of Independent States as a string of buffer countries under the influence of Moscow is the preferred scenario for the bulk of the Russian political elite. The difference is that the Soviet restoration at the turn of the century occurred in pretty short order in response to a defeat and the loss of territory. They succeeded brilliantly in Ukraine. which bought peace with Germany at the price of huge territorial concessions. The Restoration Model Outwardly. This was the geopolitical equivalent of a military counter-offensive. was "obscene. both were very valid goals. The logic of the Civil War of 1918-1920 made the revolutionary Soviets into imperial restorationists. To them. where even the nominally autonomous protectorates of Bukhara and Khiva were taken over. the 1918 treaty of BrestLitovsk.35 This model still appeals to most Russian supporters of a strong state. A Farewell to the Empire broke the camel's back. the Red Army acted not so much as a vehicle of socialist revolution. or derzhava. and Central Asia. restoration is similar to the Collecting of Lands.Part One. under a different name. the Transcaucasus. as an instrument of restoration of the Russian Empire. Influential Russian officials regard Russia's keeping its great power status to be in its primary national security interest. In the next several years. Eight months after the completion of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan the Berlin Wall fell. 66 ." It is a moot question whether the aborted Red Army invasion of Poland in 1919 was an attempt to export revolution to Germany or to re-establish control over Poland — from the Bolshevik point of view. which needs to be defended at all cost.
immediately entered a political-military alliance with Soviet Russia (formalized in early 1922) and soon thereafter. and had no claims on their territory. which later became split again as a result of the Soviet Union's demise.Chapter I. as well as the China Eastern railway and the lease of the Port Arthur naval base. This changed in the late 1930s. and Czechoslovakia. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Where the Red Army failed. 1922. He succeeded in unifying the Ukrainian nation— under the USSR. it is difficult to see much interest among the Russian elite in favor of restoring the USSR to its pre-1991 form. Initially. An attempt to take over Finland failed because of the Finns' stubborn resistance during the Winter War. In a similar fashion. such as in Poland in 1919. he succeeded in "reunifying" Moldova. At Yalta and Potsdam. the USSR established diplomatic relations with all neighboring countries. Above everything 67 . were fully fused under the name of the USSR. In the 1920s and 1930s. on December 30. including Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. thus formed. which was almost accomplished by the time he died in 1953—with the sole exceptions of Poland. The Soviet republics. Romania. Despite the routine pronouncements by Communist Party leaders and Zhirinovsky's supporters. Stalin explicitly insisted on the return of the territories lost by Russia to Japan in 1905. Only Bessarabia was shaded on the Soviet maps as Romanianoccupied. including those formed on the territory of the former Russian Empire. of course—through land acquisitions from Poland. Stalin's socialism in one country was an introvert exercise. this was not through lack of trying. Finland. Stalin evidently started to view territorial restoration of the Russian Empire as his historic mission. and the eastern Turkish districts of Kars and Ardahan.
Restoration and new Desintegration .68 Map: Desintegration.
who as Marxists place class above nation initially had little time for inter-state borders. such a project would strain all of Russia's resources and would still not guarantee success. the Bolsheviks called for the military defeat of Russia. Le Monde Sans Frontières: a Revolutionary Aberration The Bolsheviks. Once they came to power. they proclaimed the right of nations to self-determination. would not only draw Belarus and Ukraine into Moscow's orbit: Russia's gravitational pull would have an impact on the behavior and orientation of the Transcaucasian and Central Asian states. had to deal with major territorial issues almost immediately after seizing power in Petrograd. when the Soviet Union entered its terminal crisis. and the Transcaucasus. was not interested in territory. too." At the outset of World War I. Lenin. but rather in a total victory over "world capitalism. the Bolsheviks had to deal with the realities of power politics. Ukraine. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History else. including secession. In re- 69 . The activist version of this model has been finally relegated to history. at first did not consider borders a priority. it is worth considering the same argument as that of the Collecting of Lands section.Chapter I. they agreed to give up Poland. Looking for allies in their struggle against tsarism and the international bourgeoisie. the Baltic provinces. in the foreseeable future. their association with Russia might well grow not only in degree but also in kind. However. should it eventually come. Under the March 1918 separate peace treaty with Germany signed at Brest-Litovsk. This had fateful implications seventy years later. much of Belarus. Even if the independence of the CIS states is preserved. he taught before the revolution. Russia's economic success. The proletariat.
this romanticism never resurfaced in Russia again. To the early Soviet Communists. as derzhavniks—and proud of it. As seen by Lenin and his cohorts. A Farewell to the Empire turn.Part One. was busy masterminding the power transition. these expectations were finally revealed as delusions. In the 1920s. the Soviet government's historical role was to win time before a revolution took place in Germany. which threatened the Bolsheviks' power position at home. By late 1923. Like the Bolsheviks. the pro-Soviet Mongolia and Tuva were seen as bases for spreading Communist influence to Asia. Stalin ordered the creation of the Moldavian Republic in Tiraspol and in 1940 the upgrading of the Karelo-Finnish Republic in Petrozavodsk as way-stations toward the eventual absorption of Bessarabia and Finland. Post-Soviet Communists are even further from their Leninist forefathers. What was most important for Boris Yeltsin in his struggle against Mikhail Gorbachev was raw power. the leadership of the Russian Republic in 1990-1991 followed a distinctly anti-territorial logic. Interestingly." for all its internationalist veneer. Russia was little more than a territorial base for world revolution. Yeltsin's Secretary of State. but already from the 1930s they were turned into a strategic glacis. They are openly nationalistic—in the Russian sense. Having suffered such a crushing defeat. was based on the idea of the centrality of the Soviet state and the inviolability of its territory. and acting Prime Minister 70 . the Germans stopped their advance. however. He succeeded in the first instance. Gennady Burbulis. in 1924. "Socialism in one country. however. They were replaced by the building of socialism in one country and the creation of outposts for a revolutionary movement in the neighboring countries. and failed in the second.
Borders again became irrelevant. Humiliating as they were. More frequently. territorial expansion prevailed. these defeats have not directly affected the existence of the Russian state. Although both led to relatively small territorial losses. they barely mentioned geopolitics. this had important implications. ended in the loss of the only narrow outlet that it had there. the most serious military failures were the Crimean War of 1853-1856 and the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. which were very common in the 16th and 17th centuries. they had a far more serious strategic impact. However. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Yegor Gaidar was engineering the start of an economic transition. which de-facto recognized Chechen independence. the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 and the Khasavyurt peace of 1996. While pursuing their political interests or ideals. and in a few rare cases its territorial integrity was actually threatened. Territorial deals come in different forms. Territorial concessions to neighbors occurred mainly as a result of military defeats. More recently. respectively. belong in the same category. Patterns of Russia's Territorial Contraction Throughout Russian history. occasionally Russia had to cede ground and recoil. his decision to hand over base rights in Finland and China. The Livonian War (1558-1583) fought in order to expand Russia's access to the Baltics. hemming in Russia on the Black Sea and the Far East. his 71 .Chapter I. While different in form. was very rare in Russian history. as Alexander II did with Alaska. Selling a province. territorial withdrawals have been part of some complex political package — such as Khrushchev's agreement to pull back from Austria. And again.
72 Map: Territorial Concessions .
namely the South Kuril islands or. coming in 1991. Moreover. Khrushchev was looking for détente. After its first "clinical death. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History promise to return the Habomai and Shikotan islands to Japan (and hold negotiations about the two other South Kuril islands) and Gorbachev's sweeping political-military withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe. their growth was accelerated by the fundamental and fatal flaws of the Soviet model. The second crisis. destroying it. and apparently restored in its glory as a result of World War II. At this time. In reality. albeit at a horrendous cost to its people. in the official Russian parlance.Chapter I. proved to be fatal. and international identity were put into question. On each occasion. a catastrophe of that nature and scale has the potential of either sending the nation on an entirely different historical course or. the issue of the border delimitation with Japan. These package deals could be more or less successful. as judged by their results. However. but they did not affect the core of the Russian state body. The other one was the dismantling of the USSR. which ushered in the Bolshevik Revolution and the much bloodier Civil War of 1918-1920. both 73 . and final. which was placed atop a more traditional imperial structure. and Gorbachev for entente with the West. the fundamental principles of state. the seeds of destruction of the traditional imperial model could not be eliminated. there is only one territorial problem pending that Moscow recognizes and which it will probably have to resolve through a deal. One occurred during World War I. alternatively. Territorial catastrophes are those rare occasions when the very body of Russia has been split. For a country so much wedded to the state as Russia. Russia was resuscitated as a great power. nation." following the October Revolution.
36 Of course. If there was a "Russian idea". The most important among them was the lack throughout much of Russian history of a nation in Russia.Part One. ethnicity in Russia became subordinated to the imperial state. which had never gone through a reformation phase and had been represented by a church hierarchy subordinate and even subservient to a monarch. with Ivan the Terrible's fateful annexation of the two Muslim khanates on the middle and lower reaches of the Volga. the core of the traditional Russian set of values was formed by Orthodoxy and the consolidation of lands. A Farewell to the Empire options are present at the same time. Kazan and Astrakhan. which evolved into imperialism. Early on. It was the state that formed the Russian mentality and way of life — rather than a diluted and blurred ethnicity or domesticated Orthodoxy. Russia's failure to become a nation-state was owing to reasons other than the borders/identity problem. and peasant collectivism. Whatever chance there might have existed of that was consciously forfeited in the mid-16th century. of a broad social structure that could in fact 74 . it was that of a universal Eurasian empire. The patrimonial state did not allow for the growth of a vibrant civil society. According to the political scientist Igor Chubais. Implications of the "Spacial Syndrome" The most important implication of the pattern of moving borders and strategic borders was that Russia did not evolve into a nation-state. and the concomitant decision to grant the new arrivals a measure of ethnic and religious identity. and the art of the statesman lies in maximizing the liberating constructive potential of the catastrophe while protecting the nation from self-annihilation.
Chapter I. at least not to the same extent as its position as a trading nation. The means became the end: the original rationale for gaining access to the Baltic and Black seas and the Caspian and the Pacific coast was easing trade relations with the outside world. In post-Communist Russia.000 square kilometers per year. meaning the union of Great Russians. not outright military conquest. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History represent the nation or articulate its views. Regular uprisings and revolutions made Russian control of the Vistula provinces 75 . Expansion of territory was seen as equaling expansion of national power. Late 19th century historians believed that Russia had reached its "natural borders" through a geographic "rounding up" of territory and the achievement of national reunification. Territorial aggrandizement — at the rate of 42. the Poles were never really integrated. Of course.39 It must be noted that most territorial gains were acquired through peasant colonization. from the mid-16th through late 17th centuries. and setbacks to this process are further delaying the formation of a Russian nation. geographical expansion became something approaching a modus vivendi for Russia.37 — which meant permanently moving borders. in the official parlance of the time) and White Russians. starting as necessity. Ukrainians (Little Russians. but not. democratization is instrumental in nationbuilding. and were a constant thorn in the side for St. the expansion of Russia's territory and obligations resulted in imperial overstretch. However driven.38 eventually came to be seen as part of Russia's raison d'être. "I saw my task as foreign minister in expanding the borders of our fatherland as far as possible. a source of pride and even legitimacy to the country's rulers." Vyacheslav Molotov reportedly said. Eventually.Petersburg. The result invariably was the further strengthening of Russia's geostrategic position.
It is significant that neither country was reabsorbed into the USSR after World War II. did not fully compensate them for the sacrifice of establishing control over the North Caucasus. A Farewell to the Empire tenuous at best. the early meaning of border profoundly changed. such as the Baku oilfields. Now let us turn to their political and even psychological meaning. a universe unto itself. From Pax Russica to the Soviet Universe: The Psychological Impact As Russia gradually developed into a self-contained and almost self-sufficient world.40 Finland. they provided Russia with a strategic depth. True Slavophiles like Nikolai Danilevsky regarded the annexation of Poland as a mistake. a Grand Duchy with a constitution and monetary system of its own. It is interesting that in 1812 the war of defense against Napoleon's invasion did not become a patriotic war until the Grande Armée reached 76 . The core Russian lands became enveloped by ethnically non-Russian borderlands. we have been discussing the geographical and strategic nature of Russia's borders.42 These annexations.41 In the south the Russians. went beyond the natural borders formed by the Caucasus mountain range. was another nonintegral part of the Empire. Instead. So far.Part One. and the Cossack steppes. Even the natural riches of which the Russians took possession. which led to a serious strain on the country's resources. never to be truly Russified. which itself became one of the principal means of national defense. saddling Russia with a powerful and hostile element. acting more out of short-term political and strategic reasons. Borders no longer served as a means of immediate military protection. represented clear early cases of imperial overstretch.
in early 1917. although moving east. the mental image of a border has undergone a dramatic change in Russia. the Western powers erected a cordon sanitaire along the Soviet-European border and treated the USSR very much as a rogue state.Chapter I. At the same time. The elite. and spending much time and money there. from Riga to the Carpathian mountains. leaving only Poland. lying some 300 miles inland from the border. Generations of Russians lived and died without ever crossing the country's boundaries. Since the early 1920s. Lithuania. on the other hand. The Two Worlds Model: Boundaries of the (Soviet) Universe In the course of the 20th century. when in 1941 Hitler's troops had taken over Ukraine and Belorussia and stood at the gates of Leningrad and Moscow. which. which itself had had to shed its Communist jargon and instead made appeals to patriotism. Whereas be- 77 . this same border was made almost impregnable from within. and the western Belorussian provinces under German occupation. the war naturally became patriotic independent of Soviet propaganda. Fearful of the spread of a revolution. Conversely. One hundred years later. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History Smolensk. was the first major Russian city to be overrun by the enemy. for reasons of the stability of the Communist regime. Russia's borders became more than simple inter-state boundaries. The fact that Russia's borders spread far from the ethnic Russian core made the bulk of the Russian people see those borders as something very distant. since the 18th century had adopted a habit of traveling to Europe. still ran. all official attempts to characterize World War I as a second patriotic war came to naught: the front line. Kurland.
" or socialist states." Soviet boundaries thus became class battlelines and ideological barriers. their "socialist camp. as between Siberia's Chukchis and Alaska's Eskimos. A Farewell to the Empire fore 1917 the symbol of a border was a customs post. Norway. Finland). Iran. Not all borders had the same quality and function. on the one hand.Part One. such as Turkey.g. The Soviet border was not merely an ideological but also a civilizational and cultural divide. In fact.. They not only marked out the Soviet citizens' habitat. GDR 78 . Contacts with the outside world were minimized and closely controlled. They defined the confines of the world known to them. later it became the border troops organized as part of the secret police." While the means of communication allowed traveling faster and farther and information and ideas spread more easily. In response. the vast majority of Soviet people did not know any other country but their own. royal Afghanistan. and those with "people's republics. The famous Soviet song had a line that went: "I don't know another country where a man can breathe so freely". The Soviet leadership made a clear distinction between borders with capitalist states (e. or capitalist-dominated countries. of course. As a result. This new quality of Russia's Soviet borders had even more lasting implications than the actual shape of those borders. Soviet citizens became virtually insulated within a continental-sized and largely self-sufficient country. Russia's international isolation was redoubled. a wall between "two worlds."43 Even traditional cross-border contacts were suspended. The decision to "build socialism in one country" implied that the Soviet Union would have to live indefinitely under conditions of a hostile "capitalist encirclement. a popular Soviet saying went: Kuritsa ne ptitsa. restrictions became harsher. on the other.
Interestingly. the development of the country's core areas proceeded very slowly. lost a contiguous border. the people's internal freedom shrank. 79 .45 In the Soviet period. etc. much less caused by it. This will be further discussed in Chapters III. When the arguably impregnable Fortress USSR imploded. the need to suppress the Polish uprisings led in the 19th century to domestic reaction. the 19th century monarchs tried above all to prevent a revolution in Russia itself. a besieged fortress demanded strict discipline. to the extent its territory expanded and state power grew.44 Even as new lands were added to the title of the Russian tsar. was that Russia. suppression of dissent. and the GDR is not abroad). The Spacial Dimension of Russian History (or: Poland. However. Under the Communists. the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 put an end to the timid attempts at reforming the Soviet economy. and often outward expansion was achieved at the price of internal development. a new concept was officially adopted. with respect to CIS countries. the conquest of Central Asia by Alexander II distracted the tsar's attention and left many of his reforms incomplete. was directly linked to outward expansion. In Russia. Costs of Territorial Expansion Russia's domestic.) ne zagranitsa. The problem. which treated borders more as interfaces. ironically. this discrepancy became especially pronounced. economic. Ivan the Terrible fought against the boyars to centralize the state. Not all domestic repression. IV and V. of course. etc. for the first time in history. the same attitude exists today. Managing that situation was a supremely difficult task. and societal progress did not exactly follow the rise in its power as a state. Bulgaria. (A hen is not a bird.Chapter I.
In addition to the exhaustion resulting from foreign wars there was added permanent exhaustion from feeding the borderlands". was different. The view from the borderlands.000 Russian soldiers dead (only the Napoleonic invasion demanded a heavier toll). however. The notions of "Russia" and "Eurasia" became interchangeable or. modern "statists" view this as an inevitable price worth paying for ensuring national survival. the indigenous population of the borderlands became cut off from their historical habitats. Not disputing these facts. the Baltic peoples in the USSR became separated from the West.500 soldiers' lives.47 From a more traditional geopolitical point of view. Ironically. Both Chechen wars of the 1990s. etc. of course. and the second one. Unlike the Russians. the situation was aggravated many times over. despite all the victories and annexations. While the Russians genuinely believed that they "never oppressed other numerically smaller tribes"50 and that as a result they 80 . at the very least. although technically not expansionist. of which their elite considered themselves an integral part49. Russia's territorial integrity was never fully assured. 2. A Farewell to the Empire and the Afghan war one century later aggravated the general crisis of the Soviet system. Central Asia was separated from the rest of the Muslim world.Part One. One obvious cost was the sacrifice of human lives. in its first year. the two words were hyphenated. put the process of democratization in Russia to a severe test. this unchecked expansion was turning Russia "into a gigantic comet with a yet unsolidified European core and a hideous Asiatic tail.48 In the Soviet era. who learned to see Central Eurasia as their historical arena.500.46 The first Chechen war of modern Russia claimed 3. Similarly. The four decades of the Caucasus war of the 19th century left 77.
In Central Asia and the Caucasus. tsars. Russia. not dissimilar from that of France. and in many cases. To this day. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History achieved a unity of spirit and culture. in its push east. military force was highlighted as the ultimate foundation of Russian power. Also.53 Russia's imperial foreign policy was marked by typical dualism. geopolitical thinking remains deeply rooted in the mentality of postCommunist elite in Central and Eastern Europe. Russia was performing its version of mission civilisatrice." of common economic and trade interests. While fully involved in sophisticated diplomatic games in Europe and even occasionally seeking some pan-European order (as with the Holy Alliance and the Dreikaiserbund). elsewhere Russia preferred territorial gains or zones of control and influence to any complicated diplomatic balancing. of international and military "fate. historical circumstances. or Britain. differed from classical West European maritime empires not only because there was no phys- 81 . however.Chapter I. and the particular mentality of Russian leaders. was illusory. a country that could rely on itself only. and had to be powerful to succeed. One needs to distinguish. of territory and government. between the geopolitics of the victims and of the victimizers.51 this unity was never perfect. Russian expansionism was closely linked to messianic exceptionalism and isolationism. In the celebrated phrase of Alexander III.52 Conclusion Russian territorial expansion was mandated by geography. whether they be grand dukes. emperors or the Communist nomenklatura. They all saw Russia as essentially friendless in the world. however. and big to meet the enemy as far as possible from its vital urban centers.
A Farewell to the Empire ical separation between the metropolitan territory and the colonies.Petersburg: Glagol/St. Moscow: Respublika. Put' k ochevidnosti. Moscow: Exmo-Press. 2000. 2-3 The Russians did not create the first Eurasian empire in history. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 82 . Diplomacy. they were preceded by the Mongols who ruled over Eastern Europe. 158. However. 6th ed. Na perelome: zapiski russkogo generala. Central and Inner Asia. and China from the 13th through the 14th centuries. 1937) In: Ilyin (1992)." Zavtra. "Rossiya est zhivoi organizm. 24-25. Nikolai Danilevsky. It achieved a much more intimate kind of assimilation. Rossiya i Evropa. #1. p. Alaska was not the only Russian settlement on the American continent. Konstantin Leontiev. p. Vostok. five or six districts in Transcaucasus and. the Caucasus Mountains. in the vicinity of San Francisco. p. 1995 p. perhaps. New York: Simon and Schuster. 1994. 51. its capacity for assimilating borderlands was limited. 1996. p. "Prigovoryonnaya rodina. 247 Alexander Dugin. 1998. as was Austria-Hungary. Crimea" were actually conquered by Russia. p. the development of the core areas. There was practically no difference in status between the former and the latter. and the process detracted from. Danilevsky concedes that "only Turkestan. Vzglyad na kulturnye i politicheskie otnosheniya slavyanskogo mira k romano-germanskomu. Moscow: Sovetsky pisatel. St." (Russia is a living organism.15-18. Fort Ross. Henry Kissinger.Petersburg University. Ivan Ilyin. rather than added to. was until the mid-19th century the southernmost point of permanent Russian presence in America. Andrei Nikolayev. Rossiya i Slavyanstvo. 19. p. NOTES 1 Ivan Ilyin.Part One. 1998. Neither was Russia a mechanical collection of lands and peoples united by a dynasty.
196. the Crimean khan Devlet-Girei burnt down Moscow in 1571. Moscow acquired Yaroslavl in 1463. p. 49. and Ryazan in 1521. Kuchkovo pole. 14 Vladimir Zolotaryov. Na perelome. Moscow: Mysl Publishers. 15 Fyodor Nesterov. allowing for the inclusion of the whole of Kazakhstan within his "Russian Union. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii. Novgorod and Rostov in 1478. Voennaya bezopasnost otechestva. 11 Vassily Klyuchevsky." Moscow: Vagrius. cit. 22 Nikolai Danilevsky. although he was unable to take the Kremlin. He notes that whole countries can form geo- 83 . 20 Toward the late 1990s. Razgovory s Vladimirom Putinym. p. Cf. "Rossiya est zhivoi organizm. 19. cit.. op. 1999. 23 Vassily Klyuchevsky. op. the "Tartar yoke" was shaken off in 1480." p." Interview with Zavtra weekly. 18 Thus. 21 Vassily Klyuchevsky. 2. Smolensk in 1514. p. op. Lecture 3. lecture I. Moscow: Kanon press. Polnyi kurs lektsii.1. vol. op. Moscow: 1998. vol. Osnovy geopolitiki. repeatedly stressed Russia's European and even Western origins and vocation. Tver in 1485. 16 Alexander Dugin. 56. Rossiya i Evropa.. p. p. 1. 1984. "Ot pervogo litsa. Rossiya v obvale. p. 2nd ed.Chapter I. Solzhenitsyn modified his stance somewhat. 35 12 Moscow was first taken by the Mongols and ransacked in 1237. 1998. it was deemed highly important. this coincides with the notion of "geopolitical border" as used by Alexander Dugin. 17 Andrei Nikolayev. Moscow: Molodaia gvardiia. 1997. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History 10 Nikolai Danilevsky. cit.. 20.1. 20. Sviaz vremen: opyt istoricheskoi publitsistiki. Books 1-3. Moscow: Arktogeya. born in the country's most "European" metropolis. 2000. Rossiya i Evropa. vol. 39. p. p. Pskov in 1510. p. Gennady Zyuganov. p. Russkaya istoriya. 13 Ivan Ilyin. especially by outside observers. 24 Interestingly. p. "Rossiya neodolimaya. #23." Cf. cit. 53.. that Vladimir Putin. Alexander Solzhenitsyn. 156 19 The process was completed in the 15th-16th centuries. 1993. 53. lecture IV.
vol. Soviet forces entered Iran from the north. Moscow. A less charitable interpretation of the "bridge idea" is Russia as a "borderland" between Europe and China.A. the war could have been prevented. 1924. Interestingly. the Poles feared a Soviet expeditionary force to protect them from the Germans as much as the Germans themselves.. 30 In the summer of 1939. p.S. was in a hurry. by V.30. Vospominaniya. 28 In 1941. 27 The Crimeans were particularly successful in reaching deep into Russia.V. Tallinn-Moscow: Skif-Alex.000. p. 25 In 1710. in Manchuria. Stalin. Polishchuk. complete with cavalry and artillery. and in the first half of the 17th century enslaved some 200. which had held it in 1923-1939. 1965. while returning the port of Memel (Klaipeda) to neighboring — and now again Soviet — Lithuania.209. and the British from the south.000 Russians. p. 32 Stalin argued his case by emphasizing the necessity for the USSR to have an ice-free port on the Baltic (Königsberg). A Farewell to the Empire political borders as buffer states. p. 1994. 26 Sergei Witte. Ed. Osnovy geopolitiki. Russkiye.Part One. but in 1795 it reached 1 million. 32. Vospominaniya. Berlin: Russkoe Universalnoe Izdatelstvo. but the strategic implications of the annexation of East Prussia were much greater. cordons sanitaires. These forces were disguised as railroad police and border guards (sic!). Cf. cit. 29 Russia kept an entire army corps. (Series: Peoples and Cultures).476." said senior Politburo member Georgy Malenkov in 84 . 31 The Soviet-Nazi agreement did not call for Finland's re-incorporation into the USSR. Cf. Moscow: Nauka. Alexandrov. Alexander Dugin. Vladimir A.25. which was not unreasonable in light of the Baltic States' experience in the ensuing months. the Russian population of Siberia totaled 314.8. 1999. Cf. however. N. Sovetskaya istoricheskaya entsiklopedia. Vol.243. etc. 33 "Never in all its history has our Motherland had such fair and well organized state borders. op. Stalin's actions were motivated by purely strategic reasons: had the Finns promptly agreed to the proposed territorial exchange. in order to prevent the Shah's tilting to Germany. Sukhomlinov (War Minister and Chief of the General Staff). Vlasova. which had no common border with the province. I. Stalin attached most of the Soviet portion of East Prussia to the Russian Federation. They burned down Moscow in 1571. p. Cf. 2.
1977. which was not abolished (as in Moldova).5. vol." 38 Pierre Gallois. symbolized by the Latin alphabet. The Geopolitics of the Nuclear Era. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History November 1949. referring to the Poles as people unlikely to embrace communism.Y. see: Rodina. Baden Baden: Nomos. 35 For a study of how the USSR overstretched itself. p. p. see: Hannes Adomeit. 44 The Russian émigré thinker Georgy Fedotov deplored the emanciation of the historical nucleus of the Russian state in the 19th century: "Greater Russia was growing weaker.361. 2000. 1998. Gray. 41 The Baltic States. of the Soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the victory of China's Communist Party in the civil war against the Kuomintang must have contributed heavily to the "good feeling" in the Kremlin. op. Russack and Co. p. Géopolitique.. Georgy Malenkov. 1990. May 5. "Russkaya ideya' bez Pinocheta. 36 Igor Chubais. by that time. December 19. Gray quotes Richard Pipes's article: "Détente: Moscow's Views. Moscow: 1939. 1992. p. p. p.. C'est aux quatre points cardinaux qu'il fallait lutter pour grandir. "Budet li suschestvovat' Rossiya?" (1929).20. 1991. were allowed to keep a measure of cultural autonomy. cit. 37 Colin S. notes: "L'adversaire était partout. N. 85 .Chapter I. p. p.57." Georgy Fedotov. New York. Moscow: 1949.3. Sto sorok besed s Molotovym.14.410 39 Feliks Chuyev. sous peine de périr. 34 The Economist. quoted from: Novoe Vremya. 32nd Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution. in his discussion of the Russian geopolitical experience." Izvestia. Les voies de la puissance. 1998.22. Imperial Overstretch: Germany in Soviet Foreign Policy from Stalin to Gorbachev. The consolidation. 42 Vassily Klyuchevsky.. 43 For a description of the Stalinist concept of a socialist border at that time. Lecture LXXXII. #10. Moscow: Terra.3. 40 Stalin reportedly shared this view." Cf. which now imagine that she was exploiting them. though re-incorporated into the territorial body of Russia. Pierre Gallois.35. giving its blood to the borderlands. Paris: Plon. Cf. p.: Crane.
p. the German elite in the Baltic provinces maintained very close contacts with the West.-General Yury Baluyevsky (Chief.Part One. Voennaya bezopasnost otechestva. which might have awaited them in the German empire. before the First World War. cit.25 48 General Obruchev. 52 Paul Latawski. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George C. op. The USSR leadership's reliance on military force was even stronger. " Krasnaya Zvezda. op."Osnovy borby za natsionalnuyu Rossiyu. 62. Conference Report. and the indigenous population was at least spared the fate of total extinction. May 16. Marshall Center.253 49 Of course. 1. Russian General Staff). Quoted in: Vladimir Zolotaryov. uroki." In: International Geopolitical Colloquium on Euro-Atlantic Security.10 53 Reference to the Emperor's phrase about the army and navy as Russia's only two true friends." (1938). p.129 46 Col. 2000. A Farewell to the Empire 45 Vassily Kyuchevsky. vol.. Main Operational Directorate. cit. Na perelome.62 51 Ibid.. cit. p. 12-15 November 1995. p. 1992. 50 Ivan Ilyin. "Kavkazskaya liniya: istoria. "The Russian Geopolitical Trap. as Anatol Lieven aptly notes. p. p. op. In: Ilyin.. politika. 86 . 2. lecture XLI. 47 Andrei Nikolayev. p.
For some in Russia and many in the West.CHAPTER II The BreakUp of the USSR: A Break in Continuity R ussia's new borders result from its double failure as a global."1 The optimistic fatalists of this kind apparently believe in a "phoenix model.2 Although this view is firmly rooted in Russian historical experience. recover lost ground. Russia managed to get back on its feet. In both cases. albeit one-dimensional superpower and as a historical empire. the phoenix model pays scant attention to the new developments. and eventually become bigger and more powerful than before. It is enough to recall the Time of Troubles at the beginning of the 17th century and the revolutionary turmoil at the beginning of the 20th. the change in the domestic regime led to political confusion. In both cases. But are the factors that in the past led to reconstitution of Russian territory available now? Will they appear in the future? 87 ." although some concede that Russia's chances of rebirth are dwindling fast. Russia has experienced several periods of state failure. These people like to quote Ivan Ilyin: "[W]ith each attempt to divide [Russia] and after each disintegration it restores itself again by the mysterious ancient power of its spiritual identity (bytiya). and the loss of territory. and unduly favors continuity over discontinuity. followed by chaos. foreign intervention. the parallels are too obvious. Throughout its history.
the USSR started a fast de-escalation. This led to acute imperial overstretch. and can not be ascribed to a domestic or foreign conspiracy. which included several zones: the socialist community (Eastern Europe. the only part of the USSR that was left out of the process of gradually becoming sovereign was the Soviet Russian Republic. then from Berlin. and having been rebuffed. Ironically. A Farewell to the Empire This chapter argues that the demise of the USSR was owing to natural causes. and eventually breaking up itself — all within about 30 88 .Part One. the breakup of the USSR was like a sudden. It was not only mounting difficulties and Soviet policy failures that were sapping the unity of the multinational union. Cuba and Vietnam).4 Having reached the peak of its outward expansion in Afghanistan. but Soviet successes as well. The break-up of the country was not fortuitous. as Moscow had to heavily subsidize more than two dozen allies and clients in all corners of the world. which were slowly preparing the constituent republics for independence. he who wants to restore it has no head. or fatal ineptitude. Africa. — and geopolitical allies such as Iraq. Just two or three years before. and most Soviet people at the time.3 Why Did the USSR Break Up? To most Russians. the socialist-oriented countries of Asia. brief and fatal disease. and Latin America — roughly 20 states from Angola to Nicaragua to South Yemen. first from Kabul. This chapter will examine the effect of the Soviet Union's breakup on the Russian Federation and the attitude that is often summarized in a popular phrase: He who does not regret the passing of the USSR has no heart. Mongolia. Moscow controlled a truly world system of client states.
which is without parallel in modern history? The explanations differed depending on the general philosophical position of those concerned. the Tran- 89 .5 To the Communist opposition in the Duma. are unhappy in their own way. All colonial empires break up. By contrast. Why did the Soviet leadership give up? Why did the Russian people not follow the Serbian example and turn nationalist? Why this global and largely graceful retreat of a major power without a world war. first under Gorbachev and later under Yeltsin. a conspiracy. a Russian version of Germany's 1918 Dolchstosslegende. a stab in the back.e. Communism was doomed. Russia had to give up what it had gained in the Great Game (i. but it is worse to be defeated in a way that is not obvious to all. like all unhappy families. it can not be dismissed. but should be nuanced. or stab-in-the-back theory. a clear case of ineptitude. Post-Communist Russia was simply the last one to do so.. To the radical liberals of the Democratic Russia movement. As for the de-colonization argument. etc. All unhappy nations. to the liberal patriots and moderate nationalists. followed by voluntary abdication of its traditional role. Like Britain.Chapter II. In Russia conspiracy theories abound. such an outcome was of course inevitable. Russia's experience was not dissimilar to that of the classical European empires. One can say that it is bad to be defeated. It is true that in some respects. this voluntary dismantling of the "thousand year-old" state was sheer stupidity. the conduct of the authorities. was high treason deserving Presidential impeachment. and ending in selfdestruction. As in many similar cases in modern history. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity months. there is a temptation to present the breakup of the Soviet Union as a result of a colossal betrayal. was born and is still popular with part of the elite and the public. Disturbingly but predictably.
e.. it "has lost an empire and not found a new role. A Farewell to the Empire scaucasus. colonization certainly does not apply (and hence the de-colonization argument is also irrelevant).g. a direct continuation of the national territory. along the Volga River). like France. (3) The Russian Empire included both Asian and European borderlands. politically. (6) All subjects of the tsars were equal in the sense that they enjoyed few rights. i. Finland.Part One. (2) In the cases of Ukraine and Belarus. and ordinary Russians — as 90 . Central Asia. Russia differed from both of these empires in several important ways. it insists on its continuing "grandeur" even though much of the outside world regards this as pure self-indulgence.e. This is rather the result of self-differentiation within a family of ethnically and (for the most part) religiously very close groups of peoples. it chose to fight a long and dirty war to keep what it regarded as part of its sovereign territory (i. Russia's possessions in the west — such as Poland. However. Like Britain in the 1950s. (5) Even within the core territory there existed non-Russian territorial enclaves retaining their cultural and religious identity (e." like France in the 1960s. and the Baltic provinces — were often more economically. (4) Russia's patchwork state structure was held together by a huge army and pervasive government bureaucracy. which had an impact on the way de-colonization was carried out: (1) Given that Russia is a continental rather than a maritime power. rather than by commercial interests. its "colonies" were actually its borderlands. Chechnya). and most of the Caspian). and culturally advanced than the Russian core lands.
(7) The local colonial nobility were co-opted into the core imperial elite. giving up any pretence to even a regional role. for its part. they had to draw new borders where there had been none for centuries. This contiguity of territory made it easier to keep the empire going longer. The Austrian Germans. claims. and (8) The Soviet Communist regime was quite unlike any of the colonial ones in its ideology. however. ethnically homogenous nation state from the former multinational empire. Still. if not encouraged. even in the borders of the Soviet Russian Republic. had the big German state as their neighbor.Chapter II. managed to carve out a medium-sized. The British and French experience of exiting from the empire is relevant for Russia. Russia had more in common with the more traditional Austro-Hungarian and especially the Ottoman empires than with either the British or the French overseas ones. DeutschOesterreich in 1918 had to settle for a small state option. the non-Russian population was being progressively assimilated. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity distinct from the generals and the government officials — were hardly regarded as a dominant race by the others. and were allowed. Instead. but only to a certain extent. to take high positions in the military and civilian sections of government. the Russians had no safe heufen to return to. and a feeling of national solidarity with the Germans (logically leading to an Anschluss) was winning over their imperial habits. Turkey. howev- 91 . and global pretensions. In fact. but once the imperial era was over. Post-imperial Austria (and Hungary) and Turkey offer Russia two other options. the Russian Federation carries a major imperial legacy.6 Even this. In the more extreme case.
And Russia has no Ataturk. and would probably be acceptable to them as a natural. To them. This rump state would probably be compact and homogeneous enough to fit into a "Europe" as its ultimate eastern borderland. but a truncated one— 92 . as the main national holiday) raises a baffling question — independence from whom?7 Thus. is regarded by virtually all Russians as totally unacceptable. Neither model has elite or popular support. would either mean creating an ethnic Russian republic (shaped as a Swiss cheese to take account of the numerous landlocked nonRussian enclaves) or. most people in present-day Russia regard their country not as a new state (like West Germany after 1949). more likely. Most Russians see the Russian Federation as the successor state of both the USSR and the Russian Empire. but a very long-shot candidate to membership. russifying the present Federation. required the expulsion of the Greeks and Armenians from Asia Minor and drastic measures against the emergence of a Kurdish identity. as some fear. is an invitation to intense competition for the lands to be abandoned. such as the Urals. the anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution. This option. this European Russia would strive to integrate into European institutions. the North Caucasus and the lower and middle reaches of the Volga. the Russian Far East. Siberia. and probably forcefully. A Farewell to the Empire er. fully. Given Russian conditions. an "Austrian solution" would reduce Russia to the size of the pre-1540s Grand Duchy of Muscovy. The "Turkish option.Part One. celebrating June 12 as "Independence Day" (which since 1992 has replaced November 7. unlike all other post-Soviet states. the Chinese on its borders. Such a solution. needless to say. Faced with Muslims and. however." by contrast.
came to be regarded as an unnecessary burden. more like post-1919 Weimar Germany). But with the Cold War over and Communist ideology in decline. if one interprets the Soviet Union's breakup as a process of de-colonization. a different foreign policy course. with the uncertain prospect of forcibly pacifying a country that had rejected the Soviet-supported regime. one should guard oneself against drawing parallels too close with the more recent cases of de-colonization involving Western European maritime empires. would have been sending in a 500. and could be reactivated in the future. again inviting comparisons with Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans. Moscow had to cede territory simply in order to cut its growing losses. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity thrown back to its 16th century borders in the west and the south (and thus. Eastern Europe. it can be claimed that the end of the Soviet world empire started on March 15. To their critics. and ideological. 1989 when the last Soviet troops left Afghanistan. they are likely to stay. Thus. The geographical proximity and the much more involved relationship between the core country and the borderlands also suggests that.000 strong army. Within the six months that followed. This represented a formal recognition of its first major political-military defeat since the end of World War II. however much the bonds within the former empire may be dramatically loosened. Gennady Gerasimov) and. by implication. the Soviet government again consciously let the Warsaw Pact countries choose their own form of government ("Do it your way". where Moscow's interest had been primarily strategic. Gorbachev and his Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze had thus committed high treason.Chapter II. The Russian case is more complex.8 93 . political. in the famous phrase of Gorbachev's spokesman. With hindsight. however. The alternative.
and the attempted coup in August 1991 reduced them to nil. A Farewell to the Empire Where the Kremlin did eventually lose control was over dealing with the drive for sovereignty on the part of the constituent republics of the USSR. Ethnic Russians started to move back to "the old country" already in the 1970s. the failure of Marxism and the inefficiency of the Soviet economy had predictable consequences. But this was largely because Moscow itself stood as a house divided. it is pure speculation to discuss the outcome of the process of creating a confederacy. and it was only a matter of time before the forces of liberation would prevail over the ossified Soviet structures. In several cases. 94 . The Soviet myth started to give way in the mid-1950s and the 1960s. These forces could not have failed to have a national dimension — including in the Soviet Russian Republic itself. It actually lasted too long. which was opened up by Gorbachev in 1990 in a failed attempt to create a more perfect union. The problem was not whether to withdraw from its outer empire. and was a major drain on resources that ought to have been spent instead on domestic development projects.Part One. Thus. which for political reasons had allied itself with the pro-independence forces in the other republics. Ukraine. Kazakhstan. with the Kremlin incumbents challenged by the Russian republican leadership. The Soviet "outer" empire could not have been sustained. In the case of the Soviet Union itself. The chances for keeping even the bigger republics — Russia. there was inept handling of the withdrawal by Moscow. but the withdrawal itself was both necessary and eventually salutary for Russia. but when and how. Belarus — together were constantly dwindling.
10 Gorbachev's attempt to revitalize the system only 95 . not as a result of a war." which spelled the end of the Constitutional Assembly in January 1918. dispersed by the Red Guards. "The guard is tired. when tensions with the outside world were eased. What was unusual about the USSR was the fact that it collapsed in peacetime. Karaul ustal. Undefeated in war. This weariness was a direct product of half a century of overstretch. and ushered in more than 70 years of Communist rule. the Soviet Union died of weariness. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity A Long Decline This is not the place to theorize about imperial decline. Soviet internal contradictions were many9. a combination of factors sapping Soviet strength had been formed a long time before the empire was allowed to run its course. Paul Kennedy's seminal book. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. (Neither the Cold War nor the war in Afghanistan could be seriously considered as causes for Soviet breakup).Chapter II. The economic decline that started in the mid-1970s as the Soviet Union failed to carry out economic reform and missed out on the computer revolution and has been worsening ever since. can be fully applied to the circumstances of 1991. with pervasive militarization reaching a level that the USSR was simply unable to afford. that was clear. The economy was being grossly mismanaged. but at the critical moment there was no one who cared to try to save it. Thus. The famous phrase from Russian history. turned out to be its principal weakness. provides a very sophisticated argument about imperial overstretch as the prime cause of imperial decline. Some of them will be briefly summarized below: 1. The USSR was drowning. but the chief Soviet strength. its mobilization capacity. The resource base was shrinking fast.
especially in the Mus- 96 . but also the Communist elites themselves embraced nationalism in the intensifying struggle for power. The demise of Communist ideology. The central government was increasingly unable to cope with its role as the provider and distributor of most goods and services. The very success of Soviet national policy that helped the non-Russian borderlands. facilitated by glasnost. The bankrupt Communist ideology. but begun decades before Gorbachev's arrival to power. was being displaced by nationalism. A Farewell to the Empire showed that it couldn't be reformed. The highly centralized Party apparatus was unable to cope with the increasingly complex tasks of day-to-day governing of the vast country. Not only anti-Communist forces. Later. This inefficiency of the central party leadership both frustrated the party organizations in the republics and offered their leaders a chance to concentrate more de facto power at the regional level. 2. Perestroika only accelerated its end by a few years. the political paralysis at the center pushed the regional elites to the fore.Part One. 3. The crisis of the Communist Party's system of governance. no longer capable of serving as a basis for legitimizing the regime in the eyes of both the elite and the public. It was equally unable to set strategic goals.12 and was totally unprepared for the nationalist upsurge after seven decades of Soviet internationalism.11 The central leadership genuinely believed that the nationalities issue in the USSR had been successively resolved. This led the regional elites in the republics to believe that they would be better off if they broke with the center and managed their resources independently. 4.
they started to look for their own way in the world. The fiasco of Soviet foreign policy. 7. This made some ethnic Russian elites look for ways to separate the Russian Republic from its Muslim counterparts. and that its overall strategy was correct. When these elites became conscious of their own role. mainly between the Christians and the Muslims. on the other hand. 97 . 6. the tide abruptly turned. but to the overall confidence of the political class and society at large that Soviet advances were irreversible. were on the rise. which they were going to lose in the 1990s. on their way toward sovereignty and independence. Once the high-water mark of the Soviet advance was reached. instrumental in both acquiring new territories and holding them for Moscow. The religious revival that was gaining strength in the atmosphere of glasnost underlined and strengthened the differences within the Soviet Union. 5. but also an economic base and educated national elites. The inability of the Soviet Union to hold Afghanistan dealt a heavy blow not only to the morale of the Armed Forces. and especially the Russians. In the ten year-long war. The Muslims. The Soviet Union not only provided the formal trappings of sovereignty to its constituent parts.Chapter II. In 1989. the latter constituted a bare majority in the country. The evolution of the demographic situation in the USSR was rapidly undermining the dominant position of the Slavs. proved to be unable to carry out their usual mission. the military forces. which squandered resources in various adventurous projects. This was immediately noted by the Eastern Europeans and both Muslims and non-Muslims in the USSR. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity lim republics.
The process of saving the Union by means of a new deal between the center and the republics. whatever chance there might have existed for a confederal option was totally destroyed14. launched by Gorbachev in 199013. The Russian republic's determination not to tolerate a strong central government was critical. was moving too slowly. Five hundred years of heartland expansion ended. A reversal of the geopolitical dynamic was in the offing. China started its economic reforms in 1978. its neighbors were gaining strength. was provoked by the decision to sign a new Union treaty that would have turned the USSR into a confederation. held on December 1. Its "soft underbelly" in the south was developing excruciating pains. To a classical geopolitician. Under Deng Xiaoping. The timing of the last-ditch effort to save the Soviet system. Ukraine's decision not to join in any new union was a pivotal event. After the putsch. and the power of China in the east. The rimland. The European Union was not only becoming more prosperous. closed the book on the USSR. The USSR was no longer facing a weak Europe and a backward Asia. The Iranian revolution and the Afghan rebels were re-energizing the forces of radical Islam across the greater Middle East. Islamic forces in the south. it raised fears in conservative quarters about the ultimate dismantlement of the USSR. the so-called August putsch of 1991. started to spread its influence into the rapidly disinte- 98 . The Ukrainian referendum on independence.Part One. Just as the Soviet Union was growing weaker. but also more economically integrated. evident in Iran and Afghanistan. represented by NATO and the European Union in the west. 1989 became a seminal turning point in the geopolitical dynamic of Eurasia. Even then. A Farewell to the Empire 8. 1991.
this largely happened in an ostensibly orderly and largely smooth fashion. Inter-ethnic tension was rising elsewhere from Moldova to Kyrgyzstan. illusions were kept alive — by those who refused to believe that the Soviet Union had died a natural death — that a new and better Union. For a few years. It was critically important that even before the end of the USSR. which included mutual recognition of borders. A Phoenix Redux? What Role for the CIS? In the initial shock that accompanied the dissolution of the USSR. complete with many legal procedures. The heartland was unable to resist the pressure. be restored. Russia's borders began moving again — this time inward. the new situation was seen by many as probably catastrophic. the Russian Republic had concluded bilateral treaties with other members of the Union. meaning. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity grating "Continent Russia".Chapter II. paving the way for some sort of a rebound. in the end. but transient. but within the country itself. however. The cracks appeared not on the outer parameter. a state of "normalcy" would. When the Soviet Union came apart three years later. which came into the open in 1988. The inviolability of the borders existing between republics-turned-sovereign states was immediately confirmed by all leaders and explicitly codified in the documents establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States15.16 At the height of the 1996 presidential election 99 . The demise of the Soviet Union was hastened by the domestic territorial dispute between the Armenians and the Azeris over Nagorno-Karabakh. in fact. The Russian law of 1993 on the border explicitly defines the territory of the Russian Federation as lying within the boundaries of the pre-1991 Russian Soviet republic.
To the revisionists. One thing that cushioned the blow in the Soviet case and that was singularly absent in the Yugoslav one was the creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States. but rather to point out that internalizing the post-imperial condition will be a long process. has blunted the heartfelt feeling of nostalgia for the USSR on part of the "masses. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is routinely blamed for things it was never designed to do. albeit reluctantly. which sometimes turns cynical. this was a Belovezh putsch. On the whole. is keeping nostalgia in check. but the proponents of the restoration of the USSR effectively exposed their agenda as both dangerous and preposterous. The implication was that the USSR continued to legally exist. the Communist/Nationalist dominated State Duma passed a resolution that pronounced the Belovezhskaya Pushcha (i. The pragmatism of the upper strata of society. it would be wrong to ignore the unease that many elites and many ordinary people experience toward the new borders. that the Russian Federation itself was illegal. with the exception of the three Baltic States. for which one should be intellectually prepared. complete with serious complications and even crises. and later embracing the entire post-Soviet territories. and is not recognized for its very real and truly tremendous achievements. A Farewell to the Empire campaign in Russia. and. Belovezh forest) Accords null and void. virtually on a daily basis. to the new situation. Russian society has been adapting. even more absurdly. This is not to suggest that Russian revisionism is historically inevitable.Part One. This produced an acute political crisis between the President and the Duma." Still.The basic need to survive. first by the three Slav republics which had just disposed of the Soviet Union.e. Its historic role was that of a shock 100 .
which it accomplished brilliantly. with devastating consequences.and nation-building in the former republics. Wars over borders were often predicted. etc.Chapter II. the loose association of Russia and its former borderlands could not become a vehicle for new integration. they cushioned the blow that division dealt to millions of ordinary people. the paucity of resources. • Vastly different security agendas of the participating states. Iran. owing to the general lack of mutual interest. There were serious reasons for the CIS's failure to act as a vehicle for post-Soviet integration: • Elite resistance to any supranational organization. over 800 agreements. nuclear proliferation was considered a real threat. and won critically important time to proceed with state. Many argued that it had become irrelevant. but also Romania. • Prevailing outward economic and political orientation of all CIS states (toward the West. At the same time. the promise of integration was nothing but a great illusion. despite nostalgic popular longings in some countries. Turkey. and its unattractiveness in the eyes of the other CIS states. different political and legal regimes. by keeping up the fiction of CIS "integration. and few 101 . different cultural backgrounds. within its first eight years. it was not a given that they would succeed. Thus. Russia's reluctance to become a donor to the process of new integration.). and the absence of political will. which turned out to be a most useful instrument of separation. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity absorber. most of which were never implemented. The post-Soviet Commonwealth became famous for producing." the old-new elites were able to keep open channels of communication among themselves. • Diverging levels of economic development. In 1991.
Part One. Not one of these predictions became a reality. The much-feared Yugoslav scenario was. To summarize. thus. some of which had no historical foundation. A violent conflict between Ukraine and Russia or their disintegration were regarded as a distinct possibility. Later. and the Soviet quotas under the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty were reapportioned. • The conventional forces and assets of the former Soviet Army were divided up. Boris Yeltsin sent Vice President Alexander Rutskoi to Kiev and Almaty to reassure the Ukrainian and Kazakh leaders that existing borders between the republics would not being called into question. the CIS. A Farewell to the Empire observers doubted that some of the new states would not survive. has worked well indeed. the main achievements of the CIS are as follows: • The sovereignty of all Soviet republics was recognized within the existing Soviet administrative borders. • The unprecedented break-up of a nuclear superpower did not result in nuclear proliferation. but it did much to prevent the former Soviet Union from following the path of former Yugoslavia. but for ten years it has remained virtually free. It did not evolve into a Russia-led power bloc complete with a military alliance. Inter-state travel became more cumbersome. as a transition mechanism and a safety net combined. and no insurmountable barriers to migration were erected. • The abbreviation itself (CIS) created a useful fiction of the continuation of the "common space" for ordinary citizens.17 102 . averted. Immediately following the defeat of the August 1991putsch.
Chapter II. or Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan over the Fergana Valley. Of course. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity The elites in the newly independent states became satisfied and confident within their old-new but now "very own" fiefs. Not a single separatist-ruled unit that unilaterally proclaimed its independence was recognized by any CIS state. the CIS has become increasingly fragmented. But even more important are the conflicts that have not happened — between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea. the North Caucasus) occurred within those borders where all sorts of crevices and cleavages developed. Uzbekistan. A political alliance was achieved between Russia and Belarus. Ukraine." In short. Russia and Kazakhstan over the northern provinces. Moldova. Kazakhstan. As most leaders were former nomenklatura members. Azerbaijan. a security alliance united the same five countries plus Armenia. Turkmenistan pronounced itself neutral and did not enter any grouping. five other states. they enjoyed this new "Politburo of equals. Over time. especially while the diplomatic services in most former republics were just being organized. Thus. Kyrgyzstan. • CIS summitry served well as a vehicle for communication. Georgia. as most conflicts (Georgia. Russia.and statebuilding.S. within the CIS there are many kinds of borders to deal with. for it did not include Russia and enjoyed U. First of all. was really a tool for nation. the CIS. rather than being an instrument for imperial restoration. which was dubbed an "anti-CIS" by the Moscow media. a Customs Union was agreed among Belarus. Lastly. there are inter-state bound- • 103 . diplomatic support. and Moldova joined GUUAM. there was a price to be paid for the stability of borders between the new states. On the other hand. and Tajikistan.
all threatened with secessionist movements drawing their support from political forces in Moscow. This confusion was illustrative of the nation. there are Russo-Belarussian Union borders. its hollowness was for all to see. are equally important. and Baku. Russia not only professed general responsibility for the entire post-Soviet space. to some still "internal." Third.and state-building processes in the ex-Soviet space. Ambiguities can be useful for countries that at the same time need and detest their umbilical cords. It was one thing. though rarely in the balance. Their separating and uniting functions. for some Russian politicians recognition of the borders was implicitly tied to political alignments. and another between two absolutely independent states. but assumed the special role of Armenia's principal security guarantor. another major problem was potential border disputes involving CIS states and third countries.Part One. however. And lastly. was shortlived: once pseudo-integration of the post-Soviet space was complete.e. Thus." i. occasionally referred to (especially in Moscow) as "external. so the argument went. however. to recognize borders within the USSR or CIS. The most important thing. there are Customs Union18 borders. The message was heeded in Chisinau. Tbilisi. CIS agree- 104 . there are "common borders of the Commonwealth. Russia's relations with the former borderlands apart. In 1993. for almost a decade." Second. The most serious occasion was the rise of tensions between Armenia and Turkey at the height of the Karabakh conflict in 1992-1993. More disturbingly. Moscow's triumph. A Farewell to the Empire aries. is that CIS boundaries are unfinished borders between the not yet fully fledged states. the old Soviet borders. these three states reluctantly joined the CIS. where Russia could be implicated.
More realistic was the plan proposed in 1998 by the controversial Russian financier and then CIS Executive Secretary. such as NAFTA. begun in 1999 and greatly enhanced by Russia's decision.Chapter II. They ignored political realities and had a flimsy economic foundation at best.19 Other looser models were proposed.and long-term. The gradual dismantlement of the visa-free regime. Most of the plans for intra-CIS integration were only good for propaganda purposes. migration flows and the like this brings with it enormous security problems. because the EU is too tight. the mere fact of relatively free movement makes many people put up with the Commonwealth. over the medium. especially in its present form. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity ments allowed visa-free travel within the entire 12-country space. in mid-2000. comes at a time when separation has become a reality. and new states have gained a fair measure of acceptance by their populations. Though also ambitious. Boris Berezovsky. it was not necessarily unfeasible. to gradually upgrade the CIS from a free trade area to a customs union to a common economic space. One can easily imagine the bureaucratic bottlenecks that visa requirements would have created if introduced immediately. Although in view of the many conflicts. to withdraw from the CIS-wide visa-free regime. This makes the application of the "phoenix theory" doubtful at best.20 but even they are not feasible in the near term. Why the Phoenix Won't Fly This Time Despite the apparent similarities between the predicament of post-Soviet Russia and the previous periods of trouble. the present situation with borders and ethnicity is of a very different quality. the European Union. By contrast. 105 . is a poor model for the CIS.
again above all vis-a-vis the West. It also 106 . this merger was undone. Poland. the Russians. it was supported by the bulk of the Russian elite and was ratified by parliaments and endorsed by popular referenda. In 1917-1920.e. in principle. i. the democratization of politics makes it virtually impossible to resort to such crude methods of Realpolitik. Ukrainian independence makes it imperative that Russia find a new identity and a new international role. an earlier idea persisted of an "inseparable union" of the three branches of essentially the same nation. Under the new conditions. With the sole exception of Bessarabia. independence can only be abolished by elite-driven and popularly supported integration.21 Ever since then. and the Baltic States received diplomatic recognition from Soviet Russia after the local revolutionary forces in their territory or the Red Army had been defeated. In the 1990s. over 300 and 200 years ago respectively. This was the official theory in tsarist times. in the 1990s. A Farewell to the Empire Previous losses of territory were normally a result of wars with clear victors and losers. Before the official notion of supranational unity of the Soviet people. the Ukrainians and the Belarussians. By contrast. everything else was covered by treaties and thus uncontested. Finland. separation came under peaceful conditions. Russia is not an empire — especially if one looks at it from the west. especially when the territorial changes had originally not been imposed on Russia. it has appeared increasingly less likely.Part One. This was a hope widely shared in the early 1990s. Zbigniew Brzezinski is right: without Ukraine. but actually supported and even initiated by it. While what was lost in a war could be recovered through armed force. never has the core of the historical ancient Russian state (Kievan Rus) been split. Ever since Ukraine and Belarus joined Russia.
which. Orthodox Greece and Roman Catholic Italy. for all its friendliness toward and dependence on Russia. this divide is not as deep as the one between Communism and capitalism. Take. Complexity brings with it many problems.Chapter II. Over 80 percent of its population are ethnic Russians. but management of these problems in the first post-Cold War decade has been generally satisfactory. for example. a mini-USSR itself. Within its new borders. The enlargement of the European Union will eventually extend membership not only to more Slav and Orthodox countries. but also to former Soviet republics containing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russian residents. Russia is much more ethnically homogeneous than ever before in its modern history. As a result. along with an old Orthodox ally. a new geopolitical reality has been created. Even though the Soviet model doesn't 107 . The dismantlement of the Soviet Union immediately put the unity of the Russian Federation. While it still has about 10 percent Muslims. into question. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity affects Belarus. This gives Russia a chance to rethink its place in the world and progressively fit itself into a wider Europe. which has important implications for the continent as a whole. There has been no recent evidence of a "clash" between the two religiously defined civilizations. the country — despite its apparent geographical marginalization in Europe — is culturally closer to the rest of the continent than the Soviet Union had ever been. NATO already includes two new Slav member states. even though its military presence and political preponderance extended to the Elbe. Despite the important difference between the Orthodox and the Catholic/Protestant communities. the new Eastern Europe. is unlikely to fully renounce its state sovereignty. compared to just above 50 percent in the USSR.
the Russian government will have to concentrate its resources on dealing with this serious challenge. Even in the Baltic states. the "twin" republics of Kabardino-Balkaria and KarachaevoCherkessia. secessionism and ethnic conflict have become endemic features. A Farewell to the Empire apply here. Finland. a relatively small number of those who were residents of the Baltic States. After the break-up of the USSR.22 The need to fight separatism at home logically makes the Russian leaders support the territorial integrity of the fellow CIS states.23 Except for the 3 million Russian émigrés in the wake of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the ensuing civil war. Unlike the post-revolutionary émigrés. such as the ones between the Ossetians and the Ingush. the process is underway. Both the national security and foreign policy concepts adopted in 2000 stress the preservation of the country's territorial integrity as the prime policy goal. The only major worry is Kazakhstan. or in Dagestan. virtually all ethnic Russians lived inside the country's borders. however.Part One. For the foreseeable future. many of which are still unresolved. the North Caucasus. in one part of Russia. declared in the fall of 1991—when the Soviet Union still existed — and confirmed by the outcome of the 1994-1996 war. This phe- 108 . and Poland and the displaced persons at the time of World War II. despite the second military campaign of 1999/2000. some 25 million ethnic Russians found themselves permanently outside of Russia. Chechnya's de-facto independence. presented Russia with a set of seemingly intractable border and security problems. these people do not normally identify themselves with Russia — they are becoming slowly integrated within the emerging political nations along Russia's periphery. The situation is complicated by the existence of other conflicts in the area.
this still rhymes well. 109 . owing to the exponential rise in non-traditional challenges to national security. The new Russian state. Having lost many historical borderlands. To a distant observer who only looks at the map. This vulnerability may be reduced in the future as the country stabilizes and its government pursues a more coherent set of policies. Geopolitical Concerns The Russian Federation did not break up — contrary to some predictions. which in the meantime have become remarkably porous and transparent. postSoviet Russia is still in possession of a vast territory. Once securely insulated from the outside world. Until virtually its last days." who. There has been an important change recently. Both imperial and Soviet borders were seen as "natural" and stable. Ukraine. has been rethinking the whole concept of borders. and Belarus. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity nomenon is as important as the political separation of the Russian Federation. In Russian. Russia has just shed some weight at the margins. Russia is now open and vulnerable. the Soviet Union was a walled-in society. Or has it? There is no doubt that the bulk of the elite exhibits a strong sense of insecurity. Whereas in the early and mid nineties the most vocal group were the "nostalgics. intent on becoming "integrated" with the outside world. it is down to something like one-eighth of the earth's surface. from drug trafficking to infectious diseases.Chapter II. Suppressing its new openness is technically as well as economically and politically unfeasible.24 No longer "a sixth of the world bearing the short name of Rus. but has basically kept its own. The Russian current borders are believed to be neither. This has not always been a welcome development." in the affectionate words of the poet Sergei Yesenin.
there is a picture of a new Zwischeneuropa. Abkhazia. Bashkortostan. as well as the Urals. To a true nationalist. Thus. Territories. the "attitude to Russia's territorial integrity is the main political dividing line of the 1990s. the ability to manage those different orientations. but his mechanical recentralization may not be enough. etc. Putin has stopped this trend for the time being. could be as deadly as crossing a minefield) remain a sleeping issue in other parts of Russia such as Tatarstan. borders in Russia have become an interface between foreign policy and domestic politics. were advocating something like a Russia-plus (Crimea.Part One. Yakutia. either in the sense of regional constitutions or in practice. at the end of the decade. because Putin's administrative ferorm notwithstanding federal laws are not necessarily supreme everywhere in Russia. crossing the line between North Ossetia and Ingushetia. already more autonomous than they have ever been. over time."26 Russia's internal borders (which are a real problem in the North Caucasus. A Farewell to the Empire regarding the new borders as unsustainable. it was the bulk of the political class who became concerned over the territorial integrity of Russia. for example. eastern Ukraine. first of all. the Far East.25 The nationalist wing is arguing that Russian resources have become the principal object of a new division of the world. where. even less stable than in 1919-1939. At the end of Yeltsin's presidency. 110 . to a greater extent than elsewhere. the art of governing Russia could mean. the unity of the Federation may be compromised in a way different from the case in Chechnya.). In the west. there is a shadow of Great Turan stretching from Crimea to Chuvashia to Tuva and Yakutia. In the future. with Germany poised to rise again. are being pulled in different directions. there was a clear prospect that. In the south.
policy at the moment. America is chiefly to blame. Russia would be split into a Muscovy lying east of the Urals. what Russians read provided clarity with respect to many aspects of U. is virtually rent by disputes and wars over borders. with Siberia and the Far East forming a loose confederacy. Border-related disputes between Russia and her neighbors can adversely affect Russia's relations with the United States and other Western and non-Western countries.S. From a nationalist perspective. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity It has become clearer by now that there is no easy or quick resolution for many border or border-related issues. Russia's problems are presented as designed or at least encouraged by the United States. which they want dismembered.Chapter II. degenerating into border wars.S. This clarity is frightening enough: the CIA and other members of the intelligence community and various interest groups within the "U. 111 . It is alarming that the oil-rich Caspian-Caucasus region. policy toward Russia. An attempt to resolve them quickly and thus bring about clarity can lead to civil wars in the neighboring states.27 In other words.S. Thus. oligarchy" and their alleged Russian agents in high places plan to solve the world's geopolitical problems at the expense of Russia. there must be no room for complacency. it could well become such. American allies and rivals alike — from Germany and Japan to Turkey and China. which is becoming a prime focus of RussianWestern (especially Russian-American) rivalry. Zbigniew Brzezinski's book "The Grand Chessboard" was translated in Russia less than a year after its publication in the United States and was still a best seller a year later. While what he proposes may not necessarily be the U. even Iran and India — would be awarded or appeased. Many would agree with the assessment that Brzezinski follows all current policy options to their logical conclusions.
"30 This dark view of Western intentions vis-a-vis Russia is supported by the historical memory of Western invasions in the 17th. In exchange for the acceptance of U. nationalists. The reality. the challenge itself had no American connection.S. What Union with Belarus? The tale of Russia's union with Belarus is emblematic of the problems that Russia experiences with post-Soviet integration. having deemed Russia to be an "unnecessary country. Although the challenge to Russia's territorial integrity arose in the area that the United States government had designated of vital U. A Farewell to the Empire as considered appropriate. global leadership they would be offered control over parts of the Russian and former Soviet territory. which is too unwieldy as a whole.S.29 In short." the U.20th centuries. Realpolitikers and multipolar world ideologues interested in preserving 112 . interest (which much angered the Kremlin at the time). was very different from these conclusions.S. etc. who look at Belarus as a bulwark stopping the advance of the West. Those supporting the union include a loose coalition of Communists who portray this as a step toward the eventual reconstitution of the USSR. law on "captive nations" (PL 86-90) conspicuously fails to mention the Russians as victims of Communism. a new cordon sanitaire or buffer zone stretching from the Black Sea to the Baltic will be erected with the purpose of safely isolating Russia from the rest of Europe. the intervention by the Entente powers. The conclusion is that the West is consciously and pragmatically dismantling Russia. however.Part One. the fact that the U. was busy organizing a "world without Russia.S.28 Along Russia's western frontiers.
The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity the balance of power.Chapter II. the United States. and regional elites fearing the lowering of their own status within the new confederal construct. It is the viability of this construct that is raising serious doubts. Underlying the broad elite support for the union were the fears that if Russia would not embrace Belarus tightly. The Belarussians. Still. and share among 113 . Germany."31 such as Poland. or the European Union. they want to keep the trappings of statehood to which they have grown accustomed in the last decade. the military and security community determined to place a buffer between the expanding NATO and the Russian western border. This would also remove the concerns of the Tatarstan leadership. however. an enlarged NATO. take the opposite view. A confederation. it would "inevitably" be absorbed by "another state or a group of states. The elites there recognize their country's dependence on Russia. whose closest model is Yugoslavia composed of Serbia and Montenegro. under the Federal Republic of Germany's 1949 Basic Law. just west of Smolensk. and their own failure at nation-building. and. last but not least. Opponents of the union included: economic liberals concerned about the financial costs of Russia's "enlargement". is believed to be unwieldy and unstable." under which the six East German Länder of the former German Democratic Republic acceded to the Federal Republic individually. pragmatics from the oil and gas industry looking for cheap and reliable export routes. and would "almost certainly" become hostile to Russia. and capable of upsetting the precarious balance of center-periphery relations within the Russian Federation. human rights activists appalled at President Alexander Lukashenko's authoritarian practices. Great Russia advocates suggest a "German solution.
security. currency union. this preoccupation with erecting and erasing borders? The democratic ouster of Slobodan Milosevic in the 2000 elections put this weird idea to rest. Belarus.and even in the long-term. the traditional view persists of borders as prima facie military barriers whose key features are barbed wires and minefields and which must be defended at all cost. Rather. etc. goods. let alone the national interests of the would-be partners.33 Why. The proposed trilateral union of Russia. currency regimes. On the other hand. which has not yet started in earnest. The filter was imper- 114 . and defense policies with those of Moscow. has little to do with the post-Soviet integration. then. The Soviet border was a non-transparent barrier. an enormous filter regulating the flow of people. but necessarily long process of building a special economic. but also ideas. setting the country apart from the outside world. a full merger of the two states appears unlikely in the medium.32 This situation promises a natural.Part One. if need be. political and military relationship that can eventually lead to the creation of a common economic space. they literally prefer to keep their cake and eat it too. and close coordination of Minsk's foreign. The brief surfacing of that idea in the spring of 1999 immediately revealed that even elite expectations. The USSR was a walled-in society. Thus. What's in a Border? Few Russians regard borders as simply administrative lines denoting limits to national jurisdiction. of course. were vastly different. A Farewell to the Empire themselves the benefits from the Belarussian economy's privatization. The mental picture of the border is not a checkpoint on the highway. and Yugoslavia.
It was the Soviet Union's own strategic border. and the rest of the world. as in Berlin. even temporarily. that meant a reduced status. especially since the start of Khrushchev's thaw. such as culture and the arts. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity fect. When this border was threatened. East German Communists were more consistent than their Soviet colleagues. In this." the USSR would probably have intervened there directly in 1980. like in some other things. but the bulk of the population was safely protected by the Communist ideologues from "damaging" knowledge or first-hand international experience. For a typical Russian. of course. or Prague. and allowed for some "alien" imports in selected areas. The Soviet border was. a territory had to have a stretch of the external Soviet border. the world was divided in two from the very beginning: it included his "Soviet Motherland. Had Poland been strategically "exposed. from the early 1920s through the late 1980s.35 The Berlin Wall did not only mark the limits of the East German territory. too. Budapest. and the ideal version was the Berlin Wall. Thus. too. 115 . proximity to borders gave enhanced status. as Soviet textbooks liked to point out. throughout his entire life. of which he had no direct experience. in a way. situated deep inland. had an "advantageous geographical situation: it only bordered on socialist states").34 The ultimate penalty for illegally crossing these borders was. where he was born and which in most cases he never left. Moscow intervened with force." a huge and internally uniform country. to qualify as a constituent republic. irrespective of its significant industrial potential and the number of ethnic Tartars within the USSR. Within the USSR. larger than life. For Tatarstan. death.Chapter II. (But Poland.
A Farewell to the Empire which exceeded that of Estonians. in fact. If borders between the new states do "harden. one should expect the emergence of substantial Russian minorities — "non-Russian Federation Russians"—in several countries bordering on Russia. while practically all administrative units.Part One. borderlands prevailed in the south and the east. Borders. identity and ethnicity are difficult to separate. the two fundamental questions. The notion of a border as a fairly wide strip of territory. Moldovans. originally meant a borderlander. the internal Soviet boundaries were extremely arbitrary and insignificant. now meaning a border guard. In the Soviet Union. and were called "special" in the 1930s. where borders were fuzzier." In a more benign environment. borderline military districts were always in the top category. Thus. history made a comeback — in the North Caucasus and southern Russia. "What is Russia?" and "Who is a Russian?" are." this may lead to the spread of a "divided nation syndrome. and others. After the end of the USSR. which have actually become one vast borderland. a borderland. there are about 50 million other former Soviet citizens who live beyond the boundaries of their homelands. In sharp contrast to the Soviet external border.37 116 . nationality was ethnically based. Historically. In the same fashion. two sides of the same coin. bearing the name of some ethnic group — which thus were known as "titular"—were in fact multiethnic. The word pogranichnik.36 Next to some 25 million Russians now living outside the Federation. The border as a four-inch-wide strip in the middle of the Glienicke Bridge between West Berlin and Potsdam is one extreme case. is another.
Acting out of necessity. the internal Soviet borders were to be recognized as the new international borders. but its long frontiers with the former Soviet republics — 7. In the East." which advocated the use of former Soviet border infrastructure along the entire perimeter of the USSR bor- 117 . Moscow still controlled boundaries with a few countries in Europe and the Far East. And the Russian Federation lacked the funds39 to turn them into much more than that. official Moscow never wavered on this issue.500 km with Kazakhstan alone — were little more than imaginary lines on the map. if not inevitable. "Arbitrary" or not.38 At the same time. The southern flank is the most problematic for now and for the foreseeable future. At the end of 1991. which helped ensure peace between Russia and the new states. the main problems are still behind the horizon. the Russian authorities made a fundamental decision. The Yeltsin administration was slow on the delimitation of boundaries with CIS states.Chapter II. The problems with borders along Russia's western facade are less political and more technical in nature. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity Double Border Strategy Early on. The borders between Russia and her neighbors are more stable today that at any time since 1991. The reluctance to institute a regime of "real borders" was clearly linked to the fear of creating or strengthening the "divided nations" syndrome. It was not before April 1993 that Moscow formally gave those boundaries the status of international frontiers. Despite very strong pressure from the opposition. influential Russian quarters supported separatist movements in the CIS states in an effort to delegitimize all new borders and make some form of imperial restoration possible. Moscow came up with a concept of "double borders.
Ukraine and Moldova refused to subordinate their border guards to a CIS authority. along Russian borders". was extremely short-lived and never fully implemented. with a joint (Russian) Commander-in-Chief. where that is not possible. Even Belarus expressed some reservations. assuring Russian national interests and security on the CIS countries' external borders was made into a priority of Russia's border policy. The 1996 Russian national security policy paper referred to the need to "reliably protect borders along the CIS perimeter and. however. Ex-USSR border troops became hastily reorganized under CIS auspices. A Farewell to the Empire ders for the protection of the CIS as a whole. This arrangement. would be instrumental in keeping the new states in Moscow's political and even economic orbit.Part One. If Russia were to keep borders with CIS states open. This.40 In effect. To the advocates of a Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine. was that of a glacis.41 Ostensibly pragmatic—who needs more fences when Western Europe has been pulling them down since 1945?— this concept also begged for a different and far less charitable interpretation as well. that would appear very much like Moscow's staking out its zone of influence. At an early CIS meeting in Minsk on December 30. was only partially successful. The function of the CIS. would stabilize the situation and buy Russia time to build up its own borders. then. including border troops. with the individual countries seen as buffers—not very much unlike the function of the Warsaw Pact states. while actually protecting those countries' borders with the outside world. however. the Russian military presence.42 The Russian government. it was argued. the Joint Command was abol- 118 . 1991 it was decided to keep joint control over former Soviet borders. In July 1992. In March 1992.
Despite repeated attempts by Moscow to have this decision revoked. In the same year. It is important to bear in mind that the vast majority of these troops were local people. illegal migration. among the Defense Ministry forces in Tajikistan the situation was the reverse. 119 . in Central Asia most troops were local draftees." only Belarus. Kyrgyzstan. through fictitious marriages). and all the Tajiks serving there had Russian citizenship. On the whole. which was often procured without much difficulty (for example. local draftees whose legal status was ill-defined constituted up to 95 percent of the Russian border troops.43 At the high point. smuggling.44 Interestingly.Chapter II.000 border troops under its command in Georgia. When in October 1992 an agreement was reached in Bishkek to cooperate to ensure stability along CIS "common borders. coordination of efforts to combat crime. Whereas in the Caucasus Russian citizenship was required. which joined later. in the mid-1990s. and a council of border service chiefs was established. Russian border troops were compelled to leave Azerbaijan. plus Georgia. gave Russia the right to deploy its border troops along several sectors of the outer perimeter. Kazakhstan. Tajikistan. it recruited Tartars into the Russian armed service. and Tajikistan signed up. Russia had some 25. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity ished. and Kyrgyzstan. Armenia. Ukraine and Azerbaijan are the least cooperative in Russian eyes. Armenia. There are interesting parallels in Russian history. Bilateral agreements with each of these states. With other CIS countries there were agreements on information exchange. The 201st Motorized Rifle Division was made up of 87 percent Russians. In Tajikistan. When Russia was organizing its defenses against the Golden Horde along the Oka River in the second half of the 15th century. they were never allowed to return. etc.
The more accessible part of the border is with Abkhazia. has nevertheless been careful not to offend its neighbor. Ukraine. which refused any integration of border controls with Russia. which refused. Moscow was also able to secure Kiev's permission for its paratroopers to overfly Ukraine en route to Kosovo—again something that was only prevented by Romania and Bulgaria. A Farewell to the Empire Although Moscow relied on indigenous border troops in Belarus. and timber from Russia and tobacco and alcoholic products from the Baltic States—and westward-bound illegal migrants. Russian peacekeepers along the Inguri River separating Abkhazia from Georgia proper. further. The convoys' problems only started in Hungary. The result has been an undesired transparency of Belarus' borders with the Baltic States. and 120 . During the 1999 crisis over Kosovo. Since 1997. mainly from Asia. which Tbilisi does not control. petroleum products. Russia was able to receive permission for its Belgradebound humanitarian convoys. leaving Moscow's promises largely unfulfilled. further south. The principal— and usual—problem is the lack of funds. Russia's cooperation with Georgia has been far more difficult. it is with that country that Russia has been cooperating most closely. there are sharp disagreements about the borderline in the mountains. The "Belarussian gap" is considered to be responsible for some 40 percent of all reported cases of smuggling—of nonferrous metals. both aspiring members of NATO. are accused of being defacto border guards for the Abkhaz. Moscow has agreed to help equip Belarus' new 350 km long border with Lithuania and Latvia. there has been a joint border committee. and the Russian presence was confined to a Federal Border Service (FBS) liaison mission in Minsk.Part One.
Very importantly. are becoming more valuable to the host country than to Moscow. geopolitically it is becoming more of an island. Georgian officials complain about the Russians' failure to provide them with the relevant information about the situation on the borders. whose ruler Aslan Abashidze had come to rely on the presence of Russian border troops and other Russian military units in his territory as a means of protection from Tbilisi's attempts to dislodge him and reinstate the central government's authority in the area. and the Russian forces. including border troops. they left the autonomous republic of Ajaria. In 1996. Russian border guards withdrew from Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. In September 1998. In November 1998. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity finally Georgia is the only foreign country that has a border with Chechnya (about 80 kilometers long). Eventually. Despite the signing in 1994 of an agreement providing for the stationing of Russian border guards in Georgia. Moscow agreed to withdraw its forces from the 900-kilometer long Georgian-Turkish border. since 1992 the borderline has been a frontline. Following a 1993 agreement between Moscow and 121 . the bulk of that country's political elite always resented their presence.000 Russian border guards with Georgians by 2001. which raises suspicions in Russia. Georgia is receiving assistance from the United States and Turkey. While insisting on its right to protect its own borders. While Armenia offers a friendlier environment for Russian border troops. In Tajikistan. The rest of the border guards left in 1999. the Georgian parliament passed a resolution demanding replacement of 8. Moscow had to give way.Chapter II. In 1999. the Russian coast guard had to withdraw from both Poti and Sukhumi.
however. The number of border troops was reduced to 14. A Farewell to the Empire the Central Asian capitals. but the country itself is being heavily subsidized by Moscow. Tajikistan ostensibly picks up roughly 50 percent of the locallyincurred costs. some 25. were soon boosted to 18.000 non-Russians were serving with the Russian border forces. the 122 . this pattern still survives. intra-CIS borders are monitored by local authorities.45 In the late 1990s. The local component of that force rose from two-thirds in 1994 to 95 percent at the end of 1997. Half of that number were Tajiks. which has since returned home to Afghanistan. 80 percent.500. Russia has had a difficult time with burden-sharing.48 Since the end of 1997. 90 percent of the contingent were locals. In Kyrgyzstan.49 One reason for this was the relative political stabilization in Tajikistan following the 1997 peace agreement between the Dushanbe government and the opposition. still in place in Armenia and Tajikistan. then numbering 5. in Armenia and Georgia. though the Ajarian authorities have been helpful. and made an "obligation" to the Russian side. 60—70 percent. However.Part One.000. Georgia was not paying up regularly its 40 percent share. the Russians started to look for an exit. the Federal Border Service believes that Russia benefits from the arrangement. the Russian border troops in the country. On a somewhat reduced scale. Another reason was the lack of resources to maintain a large physical presence and continue subsidizing the Dushanbe government. While the Russian border command is responsible for the boundaries with the non-CIS countries. On the whole. are being scaled back.50 Groups of Russian border troops.46 and in Ajaria.000.47 These foreigners took a national oath.
This came at a price. as to CIS cooperation. Still. has given Russia a partial break to start constructing its own border controls along the new national perimeter. 123 . There is little doubt that the Russian border troops will leave in due course.51 Creation of "borderline security zones" making up a "collective security system of the CIS" is considered to be a prime goal of intra-CIS cooperation. is coming to an end. or willing. although in the last two cases this is highly questionable. to fully withdraw from the ex-Soviet border.52 while at the same time assisting the new states to create their own border troops. Kyrgyzstan. but it won't be able. Russia is increasingly looking south. and Tajikistan. A future version of the double border strategy may be implemented increasingly through cooperation with several CIS countries rather than through direct Russian control of their borders. The break. It will gradually reallocate resources in favor of protecting its own borders. meanwhile. which is the one active and generally successful element of intra-Commonwealth military cooperation. Tighter security controls within the Central Asian region to reduce drugs traffic and illegal migration is envisaged. and difficult. patchy. both in lives and money. it is likely to be bilateral. The "border community" of Russia and Belarus was to open the way to creating similar communities with Kazakhstan.Chapter II. At the turn of the third millennium. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity original plan to phase them out completely by 2005 and limit the Russian presence to small operational and interaction groups has been put off. the double border strategy. which is now Moscow's priority. for all its imperfections. An analogue of the joint border controls is the joint air defense system of the CIS.
where he had served as a first deputy chief. the protection of borders was the responsibility of the KGB. a concept of border protection was approved. He quickly understood that preserving the Soviet border culture was a mission impossible. The Federal Border Service rose in prominence among Russia's "power agencies" under the assertive leadership of General Andrei Nikolayev. A Farewell to the Empire Ways and Means In the USSR. Nikolayev. border troops were organized under a separate committee." In 1996. These moves provided a new legal.Part One. The Soviet border. a new law on the state border of the Russian Federation was enacted. While an army officer himself with strong links to the Russian General Staff. When the Soviet Union broke up. which between 1992 and 1993 was briefly part of the new Security Ministry. 124 . and material basis for border controls in the post-Soviet era. driven as much by personal ambitions as by his convictions. started steering the FPS away from its Soviet-era reliance on an essentially military structure. its first director (July 1993—December 1997). together with the fundamentals of the "border policy. The present Federal Border Service (in Russian. the proverbial iron curtain. It did not help that the best assets—accounting for some two-fifths of the overall capabilities of the Federal Border Service—had to be left behind in the newly independent states. was in reality a gigantic system of electric signals. When the KGB was broken up. administrative. In the following year. Russia was faced with a wide and growing gap between the mounting problems along its borders and its dwindling capacity to deal with them. FPS) was established under the Presidential decree of 30 December 1993 as an independent agency whose director reported to the Head of State.
000 civilians.000 to 143. and vehicles.000 uniformed personnel (of which 32-36. The FPS chief was actively lobbying both the government and parliament to legally allocate a fixed percentage of the GDP (0. There was little money left for buying fuel or replacing old equipment. was often deficient or obsolete. have served out their life cycles.Chapter II.000 were women) and some 12. with 92 percent officer and 100 percent enlisted men's positions filled. who were regarded with envy by their colleagues in other branches of the military and security establishment. electric systems. food. however. and medical supplies his priorities. He did not succeed in reaching that goal. But this effect was rather short-lived.54 Border Service Reform The centerpiece of the Border Service reform conceptualized under Nikolayev and approved by a Presidential decree of 8 December 199755 is the progressive demilitariza- 125 . but Nikolayev became popular with his subordinates.3 percent) for its needs. The Border troops' strength was reduced from about 200. One-half of the electric signaling systems and radar need immediate replacement. than that of the Defense Ministry forces.000 were volunteers serving under contracts and 18. It used 95— 100 ships and 80—90 aircraft (out of 300) daily to patrol the border. Between 30 and 50 percent of the equipment. in relative terms. having centralized all spending in his own hands. including radar. the Border troops stood at 97 percent of their assigned strength. Relatively better social protection and confident leadership have attracted many officers retiring from the Armed Forces. In 1997. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity General Nikolayev. made soldiers' pay. but the funding of the FPS was generally better.53 The equipment.
in the latter case this was becoming increasingly likely. however. which should amount to roughly one-half of the total strength of the service.Part One.57 By 2001. however. giving it a wholly new and friendlier image. such as infantry combat vehicles. which were useless against the new challenges and a substantial burden on the budget. border troops districts are being converted into ten regional border administrations. the core of the service will consist of a border guard and a coast guard." As in pre-Revolutionary Russia. light aircraft. A more difficult task. artillery systems of caliber 100mm or more. Although the FPS denied that these measures will "immediately" affect Russia's presence on the borders of Tajikistan and in the Transcaucasus. Mi-24 attack helicopters. The reform provides for the formation of a Maritime Guard and the creation of a system to protect Russian interests in the Exclusive Economic Zone and on the continental shelf. a Presidential decree opened the way to an "experiment" of recruiting local civilians. The rough model is the German Bundesgrenzschutz. speedboats. the Border troops started giving up their heavy weapons. From 1998.56 From 1998. for the guarding of Russia's borders with CIS states and Mongolia. A Farewell to the Empire tion of the agency and its transformation into a "special state service. In 1996. not troops. the FPS was set to become a "special government agency." The FPS guidelines to 2000 and beyond (to 2010) suggest a phased reduction of the Border troops strength and an increase of the non-military component. preferably reserve military officers. and some ships. concerns were raised at the highest level about a possible cre- 126 .58 In Kazakhstan. and other technical equipment. will be to get funding for procuring specialized vehicles.
vigorously promoted by the General Staff's Chief. In the FPS view. The FPS was more successful in public lobbying. The new regional command structure has been devised to avoid border service headquarters' being absorbed within the military districts." The process of making the FPS a more civilian force appears to be a reversal of previous policies aimed at giving it a combat role supported by a mightier military arsenal (including tanks. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity ation within the FPS of armed Cossack units. Since 1997. on the contrary.Chapter II. Second. self-propelled artillery. By dropping the word "troops" from its title. First.59 Although FPS reform is advertised as part of a general reform of the military establishment. the border guards hoped to escape from being integrated within the General Staff-run comprehensive military organization. and helicopter gunships). Another "experiment" is leasing checkpoints to commercial firms. which made the Defense Ministry naturally envious. both agencies compete for the same limited pool of manpower. The number of general officers within FPS 127 . Anatoly Kvashnin. financial. and other resources. recruitment of local civilians as parttime FBS employees to police Russian borders has been officially designated standard practice. the key bureaucratic reason for it is to prevent all attempts to integrate the FPS into the Defense Ministry structure. as on the Russo-Chinese border. The relations between the two were uneasy from the start. it is the Border Service that should be Russia's only "gate-keeper. which would mean a potential for troublemaking along the common border. the Defense Ministry has been consistently trying since the tenure of General Grachev to bring the Border troops under at least the operational and ideally also the administrative control of the General Staff.
"Zaslon. etc."61 Nikolayev's unexpected dismissal in December 1997 left the agency temporarily leaderless and virtually defenseless against attempts at bureaucratic conquests. the Defense Ministry will be responsible for guarding and protecting the border. It contains provisions for facilitating border crossings. and illegal migration in the Far East. building more checkpoints. But. along the perimeter of Russian borders. and Georgia. code-named "Putina. immigration. rather than fortress walls. weapons and drugs in Tajikistan and the Caucasus. Ukraine. since 1994. Problems include: large-scale poaching in the Far East and the Caspian. A Farewell to the Empire rose to 195 in 1997 compared with 70 during the time at which border guards were part of the KGB. After his retirement. Nikolayev wanted the FPS to be the sole gatekeeper. To deal with these problems. General Nikolayev criticized "persistent attempts" to return the border service to the tutelage of the counter-espionage agency. In January 1998 President Yeltsin placed the FPS under partial operational control of the Federal Security Service (FSB). and other controls. One of these. another. Bureaucratic wars followed. only talked about ensuring the "consolidation of efforts" of all government agencies and giving the FPS a "coordinating role. as well as defending it. The 1997 National Security Concept. customs.60 Under the concept.Part One. the FPS is confronted with very different challenges." had the purpose of keeping Russian fisheries safe from transgressors." was meant to stop illegal exports of raw materi- 128 . however. the main domestic successor to the KGB. the FPS has mounted several major operations to strengthen controls.62 The reform concept treated borders as interfaces. running a system that combined border. smuggling along the borders with the Baltic States.
improving communication. The Russian FPS is a member of the International Conference on Border Issues. Nikolayev proposed in May 1997 the creation of a Baltic regional council of border service chiefs as part of the Baltic Sea States Cooperation Council. FPS operations such as "Rubezh" are being organized in cooperation with European neighbors. naively. Since 1993. Compiling a common data bank. Only a small fraction of these border violations can be prevented. Nikolayev. "Rubezh. Finland. Latvia. and creating a unified command for joint operations have been suggested as specific areas of interaction. In 1997. Moscow does not object to 129 . a third. and Poland. Estonia. Encouraged by professional cooperation with Finnish and Estonian colleagues. including Ukraine.63 Development of international border cooperation has been the hallmark of General Nikolayev's directorship. Russian and Norwegian border and coast guards were engaged in joint training as part of the international Barents-97 exercise. in particular the creation of a security belt along the borders. "Border diplomacy" has become a tool to reach that goal. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity als. As its policies in the 1990s demonstrate. Lithuania. and the Baltic States.Chapter II. went as far as to suggest that cross-border cooperation.64 Conclusion The dismantlement of the USSR raised the important issue of the Russian government's general attitude to the changes of borders outside of the former Soviet space. could be a "real alternative to military blocs" such as NATO. Belarus." was aimed at illegal migration. Since 1996. Russia has signed border cooperation agreements with Norway. His professed goal was the creation of a borderline security belt and security zones along Russia's borders.
A Farewell to the Empire voluntary mergers (such as the reunification of Germany) and separations (as in the case of Czechoslovakia and Ethiopia/Eritrea). which was the first to recognize Zagreb and Ljubljana. which Soviet and Russian maps consistently show as part of India. which it had occupied for 23 years. Russia has become an even stronger supporter of the territorial integrity of states. the most serious case was that of Croatia and Slovenia in 1991/1992. especially in the face of armed rebellions. Equally. Politically. liquidating Montenegro's status as a constituent republic alongside Serbia. It darkly warns the Western powers against encouraging Greater Albanian nationalism. Many in Russia still lay a heavy part of the blame for the conflicts in Yugoslavia on the action of the German government. Russia condemns rebel incursions into the Indian-held territory: Moscow and New Delhi (and indeed Beijing) are faced not just with similar problems. Moscow has been supportive of the Indian position on Kashmir. Muslim separatists worry Russia elsewhere. and Xinjiang as integral parts of China. As a nominal co-sponsor of the Mid- 130 . Faced with the problem of Chechnya. fearing that it could undermine the stability of the neighboring states. However. but it is very concerned in cases where separation is less than amicable (in Europe. Moscow firmly states that even after the 1999 conflict in Kosovo it regards the province as part of Yugoslavia. Moscow sided with the international community at the UN Security Council in pressing Jakarta to release East Timor. and has joined Beijing and the Central Asian states in an effort to fight Muslim separatism. Tibet. divided by a demarcation line.Part One. By tradition. but also a similar kind of enemy. It regards Taiwan. Russia did not support Slobodan Milosevic's attempts to turn Yugoslavia into a unitary state. making the rest of the European Union follow suit).
Chapter II. though would very much prefer that this proceed along the German. but in a modest way. They also believe that in the long run Taiwan should join the mainland. and recentralization would far surpass Russia's capacity for absorption. will be reunified. 131 . and run contrary to the current processes in the former Eurasia. like Germany and Vietnam. Russia can enlarge itself. Hypothetically. or northern Kazakhstan. it will only come as a result of new geopolitical catastrophes resulting from the failure of the two other biggest post-Soviet successor states. The breakup of the USSR marked the end of a long tradition of Russia's integrating neighboring territories and turning the new arrivals into parts of Russia itself. Thus. including Russia itself. The end of the Soviet Union is final. Thoughtful Russian analysts are already thinking about the implications of both of these momentous potential developments for the Russian Far East and Siberia. Russia is in principle a status quo power. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity dle East peace process. to include Belarus (although there are substantial problems related to that). As to eastern Ukraine/Crimea. but it supports territorial changes on condition that these are resolved peacefully. but would abhor a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait. not Vietnamese. Russian officials and experts agree that eventually Korea. and the links that will survive and—in some areas—develop between Russia and the former republics are unlikely to lead to the creation of a new federation. such "augmentation" can hardly be peaceful. A loose political union would not be in the interests of Russia. model. which would probably involve the United States and could suck in others. Moscow favors any agreement that can be reached between the Israelis and the Palestinians (with the United States acting as a mediator).
62. now Central. even Kennedy emphatically stated at the bottom of the list that Soviet deficiencies did not mean that the USSR was close to collapse. Baden Baden: Nomos. Vladimir Putin repeated the phrase during the 2000 presidential campaign. February 24. Thomas Graham. It was not until the start of the NATO enlargement debate in the fall of 1993 that the Russian political elite rediscovered an interest in Eastern. D. Cf.488-514. "Rossiya: poslednii pryzhok v budushchee.. Cf. New Haven: Yale University Press. Anatol Lieven. June 9.g.Part One. and his more recent piece. Europe — and again. The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. 1999 11 In a very prescient comment dating back to the late 1920s. Georgy Fedotov. for strategic reasons. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 For an excellent analysis of the Soviet Union's secular decline. December 8. Chechnya. p. #12. 1998. Moscow: 1992. This was no case of ineptly handling the situation. Osnovy borby za natsionalnuyu Rossiyu. but an abrupt loss of interest. NG—Stsenarii. p. "Razvalitsya li Rossiya?" (Will Russia Break Up?) Nezavisimaya gazeta—Stsenarii. and finally going back to "Russia Day" (2000). e. A Tombstone of Russian Power. "A World Without Russia?" A paper presented at the Jamestown Foundation Conference. 1999. May 23. 1996. Note also the Russian translation of this piece in Nezavisimaya gazeta.. wrote that "[U]nder the cover of in- 132 . Washington. p.2. 1987. To avoid further embarrassment. a major Russian émigré thinker. 1998. Imperial Overstretch: Germany in Soviet Foreign Policy from Stalin to Gorbachev. (1938).8.. then "Sovereignty Declaration Day" (1999). Paul Kennedy. Vitaly Tretyakov et al. p. "Vozroditsya li Soyuz?" Theses of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. 2000." Nezavisimaya gazeta. typically. Cf. Interestingly. Paul Kennedy provides an impressive list of those. the authorities attempted to recast June 12 as "Russia Day" (1998). A Farewell to the Empire NOTES 1 Ivan Ilyin. Vitaly Tretyakov. 1998. Yet.C. Hannes Adomeit.
57-59. In: Nezavisimaya gazeta—Stsenarii. The conspirators struck on the 19th. 1991." Cf. 19 Boris Berezovsky's interview with Sodruzhestvo NG. #10. #10 (November). The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity ternational communism cadres of nationalists are being formed. between the Soviet President and heads of the republics. #1-2. 14 The signing of the treaty was scheduled for August 20. Russ. Art. 16 "Re-establishment by the Bolsheviks of the Russian empire under the name of the USSR is a unique case in modern history. 133 . Perestroika. Belarus on the 25th. Vestnik RSKhD. but this may not be a unique precedent for Russia "picking up the pieces" of a "disintegrated state. 1996. which appeared in 1988. 1992. In the days that followed. quoted from: Novoe vremya. 18 Membership of the Customs Union includes Belarus. Kyrgyzstan. 1991. Moldova on the 27th. Kazakhstan. p. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on the 31st. p. Russia and Ukraine issued their declarations on the 24th.Chapter II.118—122) 13 The so-called Novo-Ogaryovo process. but did not stop this process. 15 Cf. "Vozroditsya li Soyuz?".1.5 of the "Agreement on the Formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States" of December 8. "Budet li suschestvovat' Rossiya?" (Will Russia Continue to Exist?). p. from the name of a government residence outside Moscow where the meetings were held in 1990 — November 1991. Azerbaijan on the 30th. 20 This idea was suggested by Andrei Zagorsky.4 17 It was only in June 1999 that Turkmenistan became the first state to introduce visa requirements for travelers from other CIS countries. Stalin's subsequent purge of "bourgeois nationalists" only delayed." said a statement by an influential group. which de facto broke off from the USSR on August 19. determined to tear apart Russia's historical body. 1991. p. the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. failed to see the imminent threat of disintegration. 12 Even Gorbachev in his international best selling book. May 23. The Baltic States. the Russian political analyst. 1998. most Soviet republics declared their independence from the USSR.. (Cf. were formally recognized as independent on September 6.ed. Cf. Georgy Fedotov. and Tajikistan. Russia. 1929.
30 This is indeed the title of a most insightful piece by Thomas Graham. 24 The Russian Federation remains the world's largest country by far. Moscow: Institute of CIS countries." (Belarus as Russia's Ally).5 million sq. 31 Alexander Fadeyev." Nezavisimaya gazeta. September 29." Nezavisimaya gazeta.76. see ITAR-TASS commentary published in Krasnaya Zvezda." Nezavisimaya gazeta. p. 2000. the National Security Concept. "Nezavisimaya gazeta". leading political strategists such as Sergei Karaganov. km of territory.g. p.3. In: Konstantin Zatulin (ed. 23 This was especially evident during the Chechen war of 1994-1996 and again in the wake of the Dagestani fighting in 1999. "Russofobia. 27 Alexei Pushkov. 1997.4 million sq.5. 25 See. June 5. 2000. cited above. 1997.Part One.5. November 11. 26 Yury Golubchikov. "Russkii schit dlya velikikh civilizatsii". Cf.) Na puti k vossoyedineniyu Belarusi i Rossii. former Prime Minister Primakov. 1992. November 14. approved on January 5. 1999. plus 8. "Amerika — novaya sverkhderzhava Evrazii.. 22 Cf. Cf. It covers 17. "Zapad vsyo aktivnee ispolzuyet Polshu. 29 Cf. during the confirmation of Vladimir Putin as Russia's Prime Minister. 1999.6. For a more recent reference. p. p.5. p. km of exclusive economic zone. A Farewell to the Empire 21 Even the hard-nosed realists from the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy believed in 1992 that reintegration of most of the former USSR was feasible. 1999. p. e. "Belarus kak soyuznik Rossii.. 32 Cf. 2000. Pravda-5. "Strategia dlya Rossii". and the Foreign Policy Concept. August 19. 1998. President Lukashenko's clear statement in his 2000 annual message to the National Assembly: "I believe it necessary to dwell once again on 134 . approved on April 21. the statements made in 1999 by Prime Ministers Stepashin and Putin. January 4-9. also Vladimir Zhirinovsky's speech in the Duma on August 16. 28 Sergei Glaziev. Yury Godin. released on July 10.. 2000. the Military Doctrine.
however. the idea of a trilateral 'union' was a clear propaganda ploy. as approved by the President of the Russian Federation on October 5. argue that precisely that syndrome should be cultivated as a prime factor working for integration. 34 The typical Stalin-era phrase reflects an idea that has become deeply ingrained in the Soviet collective mind. which resulted in the dismissal of the Defense Minister and an unprecedented fall in the military's prestige as an institution. 2000).2. Literaturnaya gazeta. 135 . which is: "Our frontiers are impregnable.Chapter II. 1997. p. Quoted from: Evraziyskiy vestnik #1-2 (AprilMay. Such is our course. 37 These same questions were first discussed in a modern context by Alexander Solzhenitsyn.5 billion over ten years.2. p." Cf. September 18. 1992. 36 This issue is explored in more detail in Chapter VI. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity the issue of the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus within the Union state… As President of my country I repeatedly said and will say it again: Belarus is and will remain independent and sovereign. (www. December 26.. 39 Estimated to be around $1. in his "Kak nam obustroit' Rossiyu?" Cf. 40 Nezavisimaya gazeta.5. Andrei Nikolayev (former director of the Federal Borders Service) writing in Nezavisimaya gazeta. that only five years later a light Cessna plane piloted by a German youth could manage to fly across Russia and land in Moscow's Red Square. on the contrary. 1939. December 17. Cf.. This is the people's choice". Rodina. such as Konstantin Zatulin and Dmitry Rogozin.. The downing of the American U-2 spy plane over Sverdlovsk in 1960 was a major boost to the Soviet leadership's self-confidence. Cf. 1996. Moscow: Molodaya Gvardia. 41 Osnovy pogranichnoy politiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Fundamentals of the Border Policy of the Russian Federation).ru) 33 For Slobodan Milosevic. The resolve was still there in 1983. It was symptomatic. 1990. "Vozroditsya li Soyuz?" p. 38 Russian nationalists. when a Soviet fighter shot down the Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 over Sakhalin Island. p.3-6.22 35 The aerial dimension of the border was as important. p.e-journal. they are clothed in steel and concrete. A Reader. It was never raised after the end of the 1999 air war.
29. 1997. p. 49 Andrei Korbut. 1998.. Investments. p. Cf." Itogi. za khrebtom…" (An interview with Lt. 43 For Moscow. 1997. "Gruppirovka pogranvoysk RF v Tadzhikistane sokrashchaentsya. Annex 10. Na perelome: zapiski russkogo generala. Soviet forces patrolled the inter-German boundary. part 2. p. December 6. Krasnaya zvezda. writing in Krasnaya zvezda.171. November 19. p.2.g. as to trade.2. December 9. 45 Vitaly Strugovets.18. Vol. roughly the same share as in Lithuania. e.2 53 Itogi. 46 Andrei Nikolayev. 25 June 1996. The volume of Russo-Tajik commerce fell from $2. 47 Kommersant Daily. 54 Andrei Nikolayev's interview with NVO. Istoriya russkoi kultury. May 27. February 7. "Strategiya dvukh rubezhei. December 9. "Tam vdali. 1997. Russia's share in Tajikistan's foreign trade dropped to 20 percent. 1997.Part One. 52 FPS Director Konstantin Totsky. 44 Pavel Milyukov. are in short supply in Russia itself.. Moscow: Progress. of course. 1993." Nezavisimaya gazeta. December 9. "Sozdany osnovy spetsialnoy gosudarstvennoy sluzhby. p. December 15. p. In 1944-1945. 1997. Mikhail Naimilo. 1998.Gen.9 billion in 1991 to $215 million in 1996. 136 . Moscow: Sovetsky pisatel. Policy toward the CIS.28. 1997. Commander of the Russian operational border group in Armenia). A Farewell to the Empire 42 Poslanie po natsionalnoy bezopasnosti Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii Federalnomu Sobraniyu Rossiyskoy Federatsii. 1998. 51 Andrei Nikolayev.1. in 1949-1952. 2000. 50 Anyone so naive as to hope that the presence of Russian border guards would make the host countries safe for Russian trade and investment was bitterly disappointed. 48 Cf." December 26. p. p. 460.2. formally guarding foreign borders was not entirely new. Itogi. p. the Red Army temporarily controlled the frontier between Poland and Czechoslovakia. writing in Nezavisimaya gazeta.
59 Vladimir Chesnokov "Zastava Rodinu zashchitit. Smolensk. the FPS apprehended 3. Voronezh. Cf. November 26.000 rounds of ammunition. July 11. p.5 tons of drugs.2.7." p. December 25. 60 Kommersant-Daily. 1997. Baikal. p. September 12-18. 1998. June 7—13.1. Na perelome. Chita." Nezavisimaya gazeta. Western. The Breakup of the USSR: A Break in Continuity 55 Andrei Nikolayev.Chapter II. January 24. cit. 137 . " Russky telegraf. Far Eastern. 64 Andrei Nikolayev." NVO #20." Rossiyskaya gazeta.III.000 people traveling on false papers. "Federalnaya Pogranichnaya Sluzhba provodit eksperiment. Vladivostok. Kaliningrad. "Vzaimodeystvie na gosudarstvennykh rubezhakh.1 and 2. 62 Andrei Nikolayev.Petersburg. op. with headquarters in St. p. 1997. Chelyabinsk. p. and North-Eastern. North Caucasus. p. op. #34. 430 guns. Stavropol.1. 1997.. 1998. Pacific. South-Eastern. "Rubezhi otechestva—ponyatie svyatoe. Colonel General Alexander Tymko.11. 57 Arctic. "Na okhranu ekonomicheskoy zony Rossii zavtra mogut vyiti kreisery. 61 "Kontseptsiya natsionalnoy bezopasnosti. Khabarovsk 58 Nikolai Plotnikov. and 120." NVO. p.1. cit. 56 Yury Golotyk.. Border guards seized 3. North-Western. and detained 6." Novye izvestia. 1997. p. p. 63 In 1996. "Sozdany osnovy spetsialnoy gosudarstvennoy sluzhby. December 18. 1997.1.000 people who tried to violate borders.
Part Two
Geographically, Russia has three principal borders with the outside world connecting it to three very different macroregions and three very different civilizations: the European West, the Islamic South, and the Asian/Pacific East. At the turn of the 21st century, European integration, Muslim revival and the rise of Asia present very different, but direct challenges to Russia's emerging post-imperial identity. The way the Russian government decides to tackle these challenges will not only reflect, but also have an impact upon the nature of the Russian political regime. The contraction of national territory did not lead to a reduction of Russia's problems with its neighbors. In fact, the opposite is true.1 When the Soviet Union came apart, 13,500 kilometers of the borders of the Russian Federation — roughly four-fifths of the entire land boundary of Russia — were not fixed de jure. The new borders were neither delimited nor demarcated. This led to overt or latent border disputes. By one count, in December 1991, Russia had border problems with 10 out of its 16 neighbors. Conscious of Russia's weaknesses, Russians were afraid that, in the wake of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union, neighboring states would make claims on Russian territory, and that the borderlands, this time on the fringes of the Russian Federation, would be only too happy to secede from an impoverished and enfeebled Russia. Territorial issues with Finland and Germany over Karelia and Kaliningrad, respectively, were of particular concern in Moscow at that time. Those concerns have since been put to rest,
Part Two. Russia's Three Facades
but many problems remain. Not even Russia's Arctic frontier is problem-free. Thus, the goal of forming a "belt of good-neighborly relations along the perimeter of Russian borders," a task first formulated by Andrei Kozyrev in the early 1990s, is still very much on the agenda at the start of the new century.2 Border-related issues are as different as Russia's neighbors — from the Baltic States to Tajikistan to Japan. It would be useful to group them according to the geographic regions: the Western facade; the Southern tier; and the Far East. The problem on Russia's European borders is the emergence of the new states; the advantage here is that this is proceeding within an integrated environment, a panEuropean context, which provides some mechanisms for dealing with the problem. To generations of Russians, Europe had long been a pole of attraction, and borders there had added significance, fixing the country's standing vis-a-vis other powers. This was especially so in the wake of World War II. The 1945 lines, marking Russia's longest reach into the heart of Europe, were considered to be among the Soviet Union's supreme achievements from the war. By the mid-1980s, the Soviet establishment had developed a conviction that these borders, sanctified by the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, were not only inviolable, but also immutable. When changes started under Mikhail Gorbachev, their significance was initially downplayed. East Germany's absorption by West Germany was taken to be an exception. No non-German territory was involved, the reunification had a clear popular mandate, ratified by international consent. Soon, however, the number of states in Europe has increased by more than a dozen, with armed conflicts erupting within some, not
Part Two. Russia's Three Facades
least in the former Soviet territory. The Helsinki principle thus became hotly debated. The Kosovo and Chechnya crises raised two issues: the right of secession and the right of outsiders to intervene in what since the 1648 peace of Westphalia had come to be regarded as the internal affairs of sovereign nations. For Russia, Chechnya raises the all-important issue of its relations with the Muslim world both on Russia's periphery and within its borders. The alternative to broadening the Russian identity to fully integrate the Muslim component is turning Russia into a hotspot, if not a battlefield, in the conflict between Islamic revivalists and Russian nationalist protectors of Orthodoxy. The alternative to structuring a viable relationship with the Muslim world along its southern borders is conflicts with a neighborhood that is becoming increasingly populous and better armed. This could take the form of Russia's assuming its "traditional" role of a shield of Western civilization against the dark forces of barbarism, extremism, and terrorism. This argument, although popular, is fundamentally flawed. First, Russia is defending itself. Second, the notion that Russia is defending global values comes after the fact. Necessity is turned into a virtue. Third, when it is in its interest, the West occasionally cultivates Russia's enhanced self-image. In the mid-18th century, Mikhail Lomonosov, the leading Enlightenment figure and founder of Russia's first university, claimed that "Russia's might well be growing thanks to Siberia." At the turn of the 21st century, the fate of Siberia and the Russian Far East is likely to be Russia's most crucial geopolitical problem. There is a rapid disintegration of the entire infrastructure of the area, which was essentially more Soviet than virtually any other part of the
Part Two. Russia's Three Facades
USSR — owing to the heterogeneous population, which had come from across the Soviet Union; the dominance of the military industrial complex; the massive industrial projects; the gigantic scientific centers; the heritage of the Gulag; especially tight isolation from the outside world, including the immediate neighborhood; a relatively higher standard of living; and the prevalence of Soviet societal norms. Unless ways could be found to reintegrate the Asian portion of Russia within the Russian Federation, and simultaneously to integrate it into Asia-Pacific, Russia might well lose 13 million square kilometers (three quarters) of its territory east of the Urals, and the vast expanses and the natural riches of the territory might become an object of intense international competition.3
1 The Russian Federation borders on 16 countries, and the total length of these boundaries is 60,930 km, compared with the Soviet Union's 61,000 km and the Russian Empire's 64,900 versts, or 69,300 km Cf. The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (July 2000), section I ("General Provisions"). This was actually acknowledged by President Putin during his visit to Blagoveshchensk in July 2000.
• the former Soviet states. It is also in Europe that Russia can now hope to seize the best opportunities available to it. and the United States are generally unproblematic (though not without latent disputes and lingering suspicions). Finland. Vis-a-vis the traditional Western nations. other countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe which border on the CIS states. i. It was in Europe that post-Soviet Russia's situation has undergone the most profound changes. the biggest problems stem from the enlargement of the "territory" of the western institutions.CHAPTER III The Western Façade ussian leaders have traditionally regarded their country's position in Europe as critically important to Russia's overall international posture and its role in world affairs. They are changing their nature thanks to the finality of the Russian withdrawal from the region and the R 145 . such as NATO and the European Union. Romania. This enlargement challenges Russia to reappraise its position in Europe.e. it is not the borders per se that are of primary importance: boundaries with Norway. and Slovakia). Hungary. In the West and the North. by extension. Russia borders on three sets of countries: • the traditional Western nations. territorial boundaries are nominally more important. With the countries of the "new West" (Poland and. • the new Western nations.
Is the separation of Russia.Part Two. Estonia. wedged between Poland and Lithuania. • a broadly similar dispute with the United States settled in a 1990 agreement. the still formally unresolved territorial disputes between Russian and those two countries. or merely an interlude. Belarus and Ukraine — with Moldova more or less loosely associated with this group — raise the most difficult challenge flowing from the split of the Eastern Slav core of old Russia. and Lithuania. • a lingering dispute with Norway over a portion of the Arctic. part of which used to belong to Finland before 1940. Central and Eastern Europe will belong to an alliance that excludes Russia. The Traditional West In its North-West and the Arctic. The three Baltic countries. borders with the former Soviet states. Lastly but most importantly. At the same time. the existence of a sizable Russian minority. which remains controversial in Russia and has not been ratified by its parliament. For the first time in 50 years. form a very special subgroup within that category — because of their long history as part of the Russian empire and the USSR. and 146 . to be followed by new "reunification"? The pull of history is enormously powerful. Ukraine and Belarus final. Russia's Three Facades prospects of these countries' accession to NATO and the EU. acceptance of the new realities is an admission fee for participating in a pan-European process where the Russian Federation could use her advantages to pursue emerging opportunities. especially in Estonia and Latvia. Russia has: • a latent conflict over Karelia. and the Kaliningrad enclave. Latvia.
Soviet-Finnish relations were based on the Treaty of Friendship. Cooperation. was a largely self-governing part of the Russian Empire between 1809 and 1917. this was the best possible arrangement given the circumstances of the Cold War. When the USSR collapsed. whose independence was recognized by Lenin's government in December 1917 and where the local Bolsheviks failed to prevail in the civil war of 1918. Since the dismantlement of the USSR. did not curtail Finland's internal freedom. This arrangement. Finland was turned into a protective Soviet buffer vis-avis NATO. Finland. and Mutual Assistance signed in 1948. During the Cold War. Thus. which ended the second Soviet-Finnish war (19411944) began by the Finns in alliance with Germany to regain the lost province. Though the term "Finlandization" was often used in a derogatory way. which barred Finland from joining any alliance with Germany and provided for Finnish-Soviet cooperation in case of external aggression. Russia faces the challenge of the territorial and functional expansion of Western institutions and the quality of the boundaries separating it from its Cold War adversaries. of course. and confirmed by the treaty of peace of 1947. and the land border with Norway.Chapter III. Moreover. Poland (in Kaliningrad). the only legally defined and properly demarcated borders the Russian Federation inherited were with Finland. while meeting Moscow's security concerns. claims have been raised by various political forces in Finland to the part of Karelia which was annexed by the Soviet Union as a result of the Winter War of 1939-1940 started by Stalin. Too bad it was not • 147 . The Western Facade the problem of the continental shelf in the Arctic ocean.
Russia's Three Facades expanded at the time to include Central and Eastern Europe. Still. and suggested raising the efficiency of border and customs controls instead. statements of individual politicians and activities of associations such as the Karelia Union and the focusing of nearly all Finnish aid to Russia on the border region have kept some Russian officials on alert. Having fashioned a more equitable but still friendly relationship with Moscow after the end of the USSR.Part Two. President Yeltsin went as far as to suggest "joint control" of the 1. Instead. An attempt to introduce it there in the late 1980s came too late." 148 . So much for "Finlandization. Finland's EU membership was not responsible for the decline of trade relations between the two countries. Helsinki chose not to challenge the existing borders. The Finnish government's "Northern Dimension" initiative attempts to lay bridges to the east across the divide. which the Russians fear would permanently isolate them from a "Europe" that will have reached its eastern limit on the Russian border. In 1997. is linked to Finland's accession in 1995 to the European Union. This time.1 President Ahtisaari politely refused. the Finnish-Russian border has turned into a clear and dramatic dividing line between the Europe of the European Union and Russia.300 km long Russian-Finnish border. the first frontier between Russia and a EU member state. some Russian officials are getting nervous about the possibility that north-west Russia could "defect" to the EU. but it disappointed those who had hoped that this expansion of the Union would immediately stimulate cross-border economic cooperation with Russia. The question is whether this line will turn into a permanent watershed. however. The major change along the Russo-Finnish border.
Norway is not a member of the European Union. The creation in 1992 of the Euro-Arctic Barents Council. Europe's Far North is slowly taking shape. A ban on permanent stationing of foreign military forces in Norway and on military exercises close to the Soviet border were in force throughout the period of confrontation. Oslo assumed unilateral restrictions on allied military activity on its territory. both reflected and promoted this. In an attempt to keep tensions with the Soviet Union under control.S. which Russia co-founded. It was virtually uncontested ever since Novgorod the Great and Norway concluded their first border treaty in 1323. 149 . but mass migration from Russia. Moscow and Oslo have a long-standing dispute over a portion of the Barents Sea. The end of the Cold War has made this self-restraint unnecessary. remote by both countries' standards. The dismantlement of the Iron Curtain has led to massive cross-border exchanges in this region.3 Rather. (2) was essentially a military confidence-building measure rather than a political commitment. but left promptly after the end of hostilities. The Western Facade Norway presents Russia with a very different set of problems from Finland. and (3) existed only in peacetime. The disputed area. much feared in the early 1990s. but during the Cold War it was one of only two NATO countries that had land borders with the USSR.Chapter III. a sense of a common belonging is emerging among the population of the Arctic region. especially U. The buffer thus formed: (1) was unilateral. military and intelligence-gathering activities in northern Norway and the Arctic with a wary eye. The land boundary between the two countries is unproblematic. By contrast. never took place.2 In 1945. Soviet troops briefly invaded northern Norway to dislodge German occupation forces.. but Russia has been watching Western.
Russia became one of the co-signatories of the Treaty on Spitzbergen (Svalbard). this foothold was of substantial strategic importance to the Soviet Union."5 Gone are the days when the USSR was seeking to expand its presence in the Arctic Ocean. ignored Norwegian restrictions en masse.4 Negotiations on the border issue have been continuing since 1970. is thought to contain large amounts of oil and gas. Russians have been increasingly concerned about Western (Norwegian. which led to a brief diplomatic conflict. This decision declared all the islands discovered within the portion of the Arctic ocean formed by the lines linking Russia's east- 150 . the two countries agreed to declare the contested borders a common "Gray Zone. comparable to Western Siberia's. American. In 1920. German) designs on their Arctic shelf. The Russian Security Council warned the government of the threat of Western economic expansion. Russia has a very special problem related to its Arctic sector established by the Soviet government's unilateral decision in 1926. Russian fishermen. and was routinely handled by diplomats. Some Russian estimates put it as high as 88 billion tons." and abide by certain rules. In 1998.Part Two. Since then. In more general terms. coupled with military-political pressure "that could result in Russia being gradually eased out from the Arctic. Until the late 1990s. which was placed under Norwegian sovereignty.000 square kilometers in area. but where Russia retained the right to mine coal. never to be replaced by any serious economic role.000 and 180. Russia's Three Facades between 155. but this role was lost with the end of confrontation. unable to reach a final agreement. During the Cold War. In 1978. going after cod. this issue had never aroused any emotions. Problems were rare.
but neither was it challenged by anyone.8 million square kilometers. of course. Russian critics point out that 70 percent of the disputed area went to the United States. The Soviet and later Russian parliaments refused to follow suit. 1. and their coastline adds to the shelf. which has begun ex- 151 . The total area of Soviet Polar possessions was 5. The Western Facade ernmost point on the Arctic coast and the westernmost one to the North Pole to belong to the USSR. Germany. the Russian Federation joined the Law of the Sea Convention. Claiming that the agreement was a mistake (a "second Alaska sale"). with the rest of the sector. which others.Chapter III. The issue is becoming more relevant now because of the vast fuel deposits expected to be located under the Arctic ice. and was ratified by the United States in the following year. including Gazprom.7 All islands within the sector. The 1926 decision was never recognized by the Western countries and Japan. In 1996. and Norway as Russia's potential prime competitors in this area. It took Moscow 12 years to negotiate an agreement with the United States on the sea border in the Bering Sea. This step was supported by a group of Russian governors who in 1999 introduced a bill on Russia's Arctic zone.6 However. for which then Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze was responsible. The issue remains bitterly contested in Russia. The Russian media name the United States. The deal was signed in June 1990. which recognizes only a 200-mile-wide continental shelf as Russia's economic zone. being made free for economic activity of all states. contested trying to prove that the rest of the former Soviet sector is in fact a continuation of the Siberian continental shelf. Moscow had to revise its stand on the sovereignty issue.7 million square kilometers. remain Russian.
is remaking the image of the "West. there is some concern in Russia over the potential U." Former Eastern European. environmental protection and humanitarian assistance. the countries of the traditional West are Russia's direct neighbors in the very north of Europe and in the Arctic. Thus.S. and Russia are perfectly manageable. even as they are being Westernized. women's rights.Part Two. The New West The expansion of the European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. to the European Union — is a major external resource for Russia's domestic development. Finland's Northern Dimension initiative aims to help create a common space that would include Scandinavia and Russia. For its part. are adding new colors and qualities to the expanded Western community. keeping Russian ships away from it. They also boast exemplary achievements in social justice. the proximity to them — and through Finland.8 In addition. Russia has been slowly reestablishing links with its Nordic neighbors. now Central European countries. and the Baltic States. but it is too far behind in development to actively engage them. Russia does not border on those countries directly. cross-border cooperation with the Nordic countries remains one of the most promising areas for Russia's "re-entry" into Europe. which they are about to join. The disputes among Norway. and are among the world's most prosperous nations. Finland. moreover. NATO and the European Union. Russia's Three Facades ploitation of the continental shelf. first of all. Still. These countries are stable. mature democracies. except for a relatively small sector in its Kaliningrad en- 152 . claims on the Wrangel Island off the coast of Chukotka.
Of all former Warsaw Pact countries Poland is the most important by far. it took Warsaw only two years to apply for NATO membership. and Warsaw quickly abjured historical claims to Ukraine's Lviv (Lwow). The Western Facade clave that borders on Poland. led by the election of the Polish Pope and the rise of the Solidarity movement. in 1989. but the westward march of the former Soviet satellites concerns Russia in several ways: • it marks the finality of the Soviet withdrawal. Lithuania's Vilnius (Wilno) and Belarus' Grodno. The Russians. and ruled by Russia and Germany that the Poles were determined to become fully integrated within Western security and economic structures. • it brings NATO and the EU to Russia's doorstep. and its GDP in 2000 was about one half of that of Russia. It was also because of the historical memories of being invaded. • it has a direct impact on Ukraine and Belarus. It was in Poland that the fatal erosion of the "socialist community" began at the turn of the 1980s. After the Warsaw Pact was formally disbanded in early 1991. After the fall of the Berlin Wall the Poles were concerned with keeping their borders intact in the face of Germany's reunification. divided up. roughly 30 percent of Russia's own. the two most important CIS countries to Russia. as well as Moldova.Chapter III. who had come to regard the neutrality of their former allies as a protective buffer between their Western ex-adversaries-turned-partners and 153 . which were taken over by the Soviet Union as a result of the August 1939 deal between Molotov and Ribbentrop. Poland is also strategically positioned on the main road linking Moscow to Berlin. and it was there that the first Eastern European government headed by an anti-Communist politician was sworn in. Its population is 40 million.
whose leaders had given private and non-binding promises at the time of Germany's reunification that the NATO alliance would not move eastward. the Czech Republic. The more Germany proceeded to liberate itself from the stigma of Nazi guilt. Russia's Three Facades themselves. became deeply worried. To the Russian military. was the defining episode in the post-Cold War security and political relationship between Russia and the West. the more "normal" it became. can be relied upon to support Russia on one crucial point: its sovereignty over Kaliningrad. and the more likely it was to raise the territorial issue. which lasted from 1993 through 1999 when Poland. They feared Western nuclear and conventional deployments in that country and the extensive use of its infrastructure. and Hungary were admitted into the alliance. which would enable NATO to strike anywhere west of the Volga River. the argument went. The Poles. Poland in NATO was above all an advantageous forward position vis-a-vis Russia.Part Two. They also believed they had been cheated by the West.9 In the Soviet-West German treaty of 1970 and again in the treaties governing German reunification twenty years later. When these concerns were alleviated in the Russia-NATO Founding Act of 1997. Germany formally renounced any claims to any territories east of the Oder-Neisse line. the breach of faith was already too wide to be fully repaired before the Kosovo crisis in 1999 sent the relationship to the lowest point after the end of the Cold War. Yet. The dispute over NATO enlargement. however. The Russians were largely convinced of the 154 . there were lingering suspicions in Russia that once the former East Germany was fully reintegrated within a unified German state. it would be the turn of other territories lost in 1945 to be brought under the sway of Europe's most powerful country.
the Russians believed they had allies in Poland. Moscow. and once implemented. In order to avoid having to go through a Baltic country. Exactly one third of the current Polish territory was German before World War II. which became one of the principal points of tension between the two World Wars.11 It may have been tempting for Poland in the early 1990s to seek full demilitarization of the enclave and its transformation into a fourth Baltic republic under EU protection. To some skeptics. The Western Facade sincerity of the current German leadership.10 In resisting this chain of events. Two-thirds of the former Eastern Prussia was placed in 1945 under Polish administration. but realistically this could hardly have taken place smoothly. which allowed an early Russian troop withdrawal from Lithuania itself. The most pressing problem was Russian military transit to and from Kaliningrad. 155 . however. NATO enlargement represented a step in that direction. started to look for a possible alternative route.Chapter III. worried that Vilnius may cut off the rail link to Kaliningrad. but this did not eliminate all concerns on either side. deemed unfriendly almost by definition. It was Baltic independence that turned Kaliningrad into an exclave — the only case of non-contiguous land territory in modern Russian history. Moscow was able to reach a compromise with Vilnius. Whoever thought this up was probably totally ignorant of the issue of the Danzig corridor. but they feared those who would come after them. the new regime might not have proved sustainable.12 Anyone traveling overland from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad would have to cross two borders. in 1995-1996 the Russians floated a project of a rail and road connection linking Kaliningrad to Russia-loyal Belarus through Poland. The reopening of the sovereignty issue would have automatically cast doubts over Poland's own boundaries.
it would take a new Cold War for the analogy to stick. Lithuania became the first Baltic nation to have signed a treaty with Russia fixing the border de jure as well as de facto. This was countered by Russian nationalists in Moscow and Kaliningrad itself13 who disputed Lithuania's rights over Klaipeda.Part Two.15 Lithuania had been singled out for reward before. with a Russian troop withdrawal. but Poland's decision to join NATO was thus vindicated. the border issue never came to a head in Russia's relations with Lithuania. They are determined to win an invitation to join NATO." others voiced their preference for its becoming an independent statelet. even ahead of its two other Baltic cousins.14 Unlike in the cases of Latvia and Estonia. the status of the boundary that separated it from Kaliningrad was not properly regulated within the USSR. When Lithuania becomes a member. which historically used to be part of the German Eastern Prussia. in 1993. In the case of Lithuania. Moscow's special treatment of Lithuania had much to do with Vilnius' decision in 1991 to grant citizenship to all permanent residents of Lithuania. which gave rise to two rival claims. Kaliningrad will be fully encapsulated inside the NATO territory. Of course. the Lithuanians are afraid that Russian forces in transit may pose security risks to them. Russia's Three Facades The very idea of another "corridor" — and even the word itself — made the Poles allergic and suspicious. which they called "Little Lithuania. Some Lithuanian national radicals demanded the annexation of Kaliningrad. Moscow withdrew the suggestion. In October 1997. Analogies are already being drawn between its future fate and that of West Berlin during the Cold War. the former Memel. however. a year earlier than the other two Baltic States. For their part. With less than 10 per- 156 .
and thus dangerous for peace and security in Europe. which did not have to worry about Estonian or Latvian "aggression. For the Russians. obstinate. irresponsibility at worst. The Western Facade cent ethnic Russian population. respectively) or Latvia (1. however. for no 157 . the Balts were diplomatically isolated. of course. Ironically. to the three former Soviet republics." to declare that the two countries' policies were immature. This was logically linked to the overriding desire to recreate nations on the basis of prewar citizenship. these claims allowed Moscow. compared with over 30 percent in the case of the two other Baltic States.500 square kilometers in area. As both Estonia and Latvia lost parts of their pre-1940 territory to the Russian republic while they were within the USSR. the Lithuanians were prepared to be generous.16 In Tallinn's case. the border issue became emblematic of their attempts to "eliminate the consequences of Soviet occupation.Chapter III. Whereas Moscow believed that it had generously granted independence. On the border issue. which also serves as a legal basis for Estonian independence.600 square kilometers)." Soviet-era decisions on territory transfer were nullified. the latter viewed this as a restoration of their independence unlawfully suspended by the Soviet Union — from 1940 through 1991 — of which the Russian Federation claimed to be the successor. ethno-nationalistic in nature. led to border claims by Tallinn and Riga. however. there could have been no question of ceding the two overwhelmingly Russian-populated districts to Estonia (800 and 1. The Baltic border claims initially conferred on their leaders an aura of romanticism at best. The very emergence of independent Estonia and Latvia. no strings attached. the additional problem was that the borderline had been fixed in the 1920 Treaty of Tartu.
however. Northeastern Estonia. In effect. Even if Russia had wanted to give the districts back. showed little 158 . neither the Estonians nor the Latvians made any move to resist those attempts. this would have only exacerbated the problems for Latvia and Estonia with their Russian minorities. Russia's Three Facades country would support their claim. when Latvia proceeded. Russia objected. Unresolved border issues were also threatening to become obstacles on the way to Riga's and Tallinn's accession to Western institutions such as the European Union and NATO. Russian nationalists even claimed that the Baltic States' unconstitutional secession from the USSR — based on the decision by the USSR State Council rather than on the relevant law — meant that they had forfeited their rights. ran a petition to join the sister city of Narva (also predominantly Russianpopulated) in Estonia. There was never any doubt about the outcome of the Russian-Baltic territorial disputes. both governments' positions became more flexible. in the absence of formal agreements. for example. hard-pressed economically.Part Two. in 1998. Russia. complete with border controls. which Moscow appreciated. from 1995-1996. of course. As a result. in 1998 a few hundred Russian residents of Ivangorod. However. the United States and the rest of Europe had to side with Russia on the issue. to demarcate its border unilaterally. When the Russian government decided in 1992 to treat the existing boundaries with the Baltic States as full international borders.17 Ironically. to demarcate the borders unilaterally. could have become a major ethnic Russian enclave. Latvia and Estonia have realized that they had no choice but to formally recognize Russia's sovereignty over the districts involved. however. and proceeded.
Chapter III. Russia is likely to come into direct contact with NATO and/or EU territory along the entire northwestern sector from the Kola peninsula to Kaliningrad. Russia's policy choices become starker. Evidently. to insist on this point for much longer. Consequently.18 Ironically. They warned that if Estonia and Latvia were to become members. The main problem lies deeper. The Estonians and Latvians recognized this before the Russians. as well as the looming NATO enlargement. however. Moscow decided to use this as leverage in a double attempt to improve the legal status of ethnic Russians in Estonia and to put brakes on the Balts' integration into Western structures such as NATO. The cumulative impact of all these different and interrelated processes is the end of the buffer zone. The Latvian one is still pending. their border problems with Russia would be "elevated to a higher level. Moscow has officially proclaimed the Baltics the "most stable region" on its periphery. as the Baltic States were quick to present Moscow's attitude as obstructionist. could only be counterproductive. transit. border issues are often more difficult and explosive in Russia's relations with her CIS partners." This tactic. The Western Facade willingness to reach an early agreement on the border. It appeared then that. As a result. and ethnicity. for both sides. which many members of the Russians elite thought necessary for national security and for Russia's great power status. Moscow agreed to sign the Estonian border treaty only in March 1999. and the emergence of the new West. has been less than wholly successful. and the reasons for both integration and isolation become more compelling. the important thing was to make a political point. For all the problems of borders. 159 . however.
it allows Russia direct access — through export pipelines. Following the natural erosion of the post-Soviet space. finally. rail. Belarus. Since the three Eastern Slav republics of the former USSR formed the nucleus of the traditional Russian empire. a new Eastern Europe has emerged. is not the only country in Europe unlikely to be integrated within the new West in the foreseeable future. It lies on the traditional main East-West axis for military invasions. Russia's Three Facades The New Eastern Europe Russia. NATO. whose members are grouped together not so much due to their participation in the CIS (which is not integrationist) but on the far firmer basis of the closeness of their economic situations. This new and only loosely organized region is made up of Ukraine. 160 .Part Two. Belarus. which can only come in the form of Belarus's absorption by its eastern neighbor. and the European Union member-states. political systems. Belarus is perhaps the most important country to Russia in Europe. and road links — to the core countries of Europe. In purely strategic terms. while still resisting the temptation of a full merger of the two states. however. or North-Western Territory? The challenge Russia faces in its relations with Belarus is to go ahead with broad integration which is natural and beneficial for both countries. and societal processes. the Russian Federation faces the most important identity problem in relating itself to Ukraine and Belarus. it brings Russia in close proximity to its Kaliningrad exclave and hosts important Russian defense assets. and European Russia. Moldova.
The attempt to cast the 1514 defeat of the Moscow (i. border problems would have possibly arisen. Despite the many changes that the border between the Russian and the Belarussian republics has witnessed since the early 1920s. Russian) troops by Lithuanian (i.e. and Bryansk as historically Belarussian. the Popular Front claimed the Russian regions of Pskov. their arguments appeared compelling. in 1995. not yet properly delimited. for instance if the Belarussian Popular Front had come to power in Minsk. and deferential. which had virtually no precedent in history — the nationalist wing of the Belarussian elite attempted to reconstruct Belarussian sovereignty on the distant and vague memories of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. in Belarus. On the face of it. The Russian authorities had long been saying that they would like to restore the de facto "administrative" nature of borders with Belarus.e. which was sorely lacking. This is primarily because. The Western Facade Traditionally viewed as an extension of Russia. Belarussian) forces at Orsha into a symbol of independence utterly failed. At independence — achieved automatically in 1991. In the early 1990s.Chapter III.20 and by the turn of the century this was achieved. Meanwhile. and in Russia." the main point of reference and the principal source of support. Smolensk. 161 . unambitious. the border. and in the presence of the two countries' leaders. the existing boundary remains noncontroversial. is being de-demarcated: several of the few hastily installed border posts were dug out. with much fanfare. If this had been different. Belarus had real problems with establishing its own distinct identity.19 but they logically demanded an anti-Russian sentiment to be converted to a popular myth. Russia is seen as the "Big Country. Belarus is deemed to be permanently friendly.
made a sustained effort to unify the two countries. a succession of treaties emerged that formed first a Russo-Belarussian Community (1996). and it is probably already too late for a merger. often working against the more skeptical Russian leadership. Unlikely as it appears. and aspired to a union with Russia much more so than Moscow was ready to embrace Belarus. Russia's Three Facades It was this deficit of national identity that made the Belarussian nomenklatura lean on Moscow. Eastern Slav) nation. could be regarded as the true father of Belarussian independence. then a Union (1997).Part Two. In his years in power. Just under onehalf of those polled believed that Belarussians were a separate nation. which is in the process of a retarded self-identification. if not identity. who created a neo-Soviet authoritarian regime in his republic. President Lukashenko. Belarus became so different from all its neighbors that it received for the first time a distinct image. And during this same period a critical momentum was built among the local elites in favor of continuing independent existence. This was broadly supported by public opinion. Thus. as opposed to some 40 percent who thought that they were a branch of the three-part Russian (actually. Prime Minister Kebich compromised Belarussian neutrality by joining the Collective Security Treaty and was negotiating accession to the ruble zone (1993). Yet. and finally a Union State (1999). while at the same time relying on Russia's support. The populist Lukashenko. replaced national symbols with Soviet ones. who nurtured ambitions reaching as high as the Moscow Kremlin. Nearly as many people favored a one- 162 . despite this paperwork a confederacy is still a long way off. A year before the arrival of Alexander Lukashenko. over three quarters of the population identified themselves as Belarussian citizens. In the spring of 2000.
and harmonizing legislation. The main issue between Russia and Ukraine was 163 . the two countries will retain their separate sovereignties. however.21 Immediately.23 So far. Belarus for all its domestic problems does not have border disputes with any of its neighbors. Although here much will depend on the state of Russia's relations with the West. Happily for Russia. poses problems to its partners. coordinating foreign and defense policy. or looking for a distinct relationship with the Western alliance. Russian-Belarussian integration will need to focus on creating a common economic space. this means having to deal with the reality of NATO at its doorstep. both were clearly lacking. For Belarus. The Western Facade dimensional foreign policy orientation toward Russia and simultaneous orientation toward both Russia and the West. Ukraine or "Little Russia"? In comparison to Belarus. Russia has managed to keep Belarus within its orbit while avoiding paying the full cost of taking over the country. The Belarussian regime. Minsk faces the choice of unquestionably playing the part of Russia's forward defense base. Although a common union territory. Ukraine is a totally different case. and hence a common external border.Chapter III. Under Yeltsin. etc. one effect of NATO enlargement is that the West will necessarily have to pay more attention to Belarus. which can only be dealt with by means of a coherent strategy and close engagement. 1991 that finally sealed the fate of the Soviet Union. have been proclaimed.22 Still. It was the Ukrainian referendum on independence on December 1. which now shares a border with an alliance member country.
Thus. A Ukrainian. debated. Moreover. The population of the border regions of both Ukraine and Russia is ethnically mixed and culturally and linguistically very close.Part Two. in principle. both sides reaffirmed the borders existing between them at the time — those lines mattered little within a union state — territorial claims were raised immediately after Ukraine opted for full independence. The more serious issue was Crimea and especially the city of Sevastopol. The claims laid by various Russian and Ukrainian marginal nationalist groups to large parts of the neighboring country's territory — whether eastern Ukraine and Novorossia or the Kuban and Don districts. concluded when the USSR still existed and neither contracting party was fully sovereign. In a way. and ethnic nationalism is virtually non-existent. For Ukrainians. although unpleasant. or independent from. even symbiotic. and settled against the background of the divorce between the former Soviet Union's two largest republics. Thus. Influential quarters in Russia main- 164 . simply put. from the very beginning there was no territorial issue between Russia and Ukraine. the territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine were raised. respectively — were of little consequence. could be defined as a non-Muscovite. not borders. it is difficult to get a feel for the border between the two countries. It was thus natural. to start constructing Ukrainian identity in opposition to Russia's. local authorities on both sides of the border tend to work together rather than against each other. Russia's Three Facades the latter's independence from the former. Acceptance of Ukrainian independence is essential for a Russia that has outlived the empire. independence means independence from Russia. While in the 1990 Russian-Ukrainian Treaty. the issue was rather Ukraine's existence within. Russia.
with Ukraine now a foreign country. The Russian government also refused to support the Crimean separatists. In this situation the Russian parliament officially raised the Crimea issue in the summer of 1993. and strong historical links to Russia. denounced the move. The Russian government. 1994. Later it was suggested that Russia's agreement to the borders was implicitly tied to Ukraine's full integration in the CIS and its "friendly attitude" to Russia. has always occupied a very special place in the collective Russian mentality. Kiev's authority in the peninsula was becoming nominal. of course. Crimea.Chapter III. while urging Ukraine to agree to joint protection of "external" CIS borders. and Sevastopol. Inside Crimea. Crimea. which did damage to Russia's reputation. political forces demanding full independence or accession to Russia were gaining the upper hand. 1994 and the Budapest Declaration of December 5. and the United Nations repudiated the parliament's demarche. Seeking to win Ukraine's agreement to give up the Soviet nuclear arsenal in its territory. Russia consented to officially guarantee Ukraine's borders by virtue of the Tripartite Accords (Ukraine-Russia-the United States) of January 14. a distinctly Russian linguistic environment. the previous border agreement was no longer valid. was given to Ukraine as recently as 1954 as a "present" to mark the tri-centennial of its accession to Russia. The Western Facade tained that.24 is believed to be essentially Russian not only by the retired naval officers. Still. Officially. which rejected any territorial claims to Ukraine. Moscow saw no urgent need for demarcating intra-CIS borders. Moscow was reluctant to sign 165 . constituted in 1991 as a sovereign republic within Ukraine. with its close to 70 percent Russian population. a "city of Russian glory".
various spokesmen for the national patriotic wing of the Russian political elite. were raising claims to Sevastopol and Crimea. most prominently Yury Luzhkov. that Russia was engaged in a "bad cop-good cop" game. A potential conflict between Galicia and Eastern Ukraine 166 . By keeping alive the "Russian threat".26 The Russian government was slow to deal with the Ukrainian border issue for a number of reasons: • Until about 1994.Part Two. and not break up (the Russian government analysts were not alone in the world in their skepticism). Moscow's recalcitrance helped solidify Ukrainian independence and internal cohesion in the first crucial years after gaining independence. • Keeping the issue suspended. Moscow was not sure that Ukraine would survive as a state. the mayor of Moscow. which would have been useful for the Communist and nationalist opposition: after all.25 While the government was dragging its feet on the border issue. • Russia's government was careful not to provoke a backlash among its population. akin to Guantanamo in Cuba or the two British bases in Cyprus. Still it is hard to believe. as suggested by some outside observers. The ambiguity of Russia's approach stimulated suspicions in Ukraine about Moscow's ultimate goals. • The substantial costs of border delimitation and demarcation would be an added burden on the federal budget. In particular. Moscow thought it could use its eventual concession as a bargaining chip. apparently hoping to wrestle some political concessions from its neighbor. Russia's Three Facades a political treaty with Kiev. Russia tried to turn the whole city of Sevastopol into a sovereign naval base. it was the Yeltsin administration that had taken the lead in dismantling the USSR.
Moldova. and Ukraine. Only a few observers pointed out27 that the Crimea in Russian hands would dramatically increase Kiev's leverage vis-a-vis Moscow. The Federation Council. 1997. The peninsula lifelines — water and electricity supply. it was only in August 1996 that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators agreed to establish a subcommittee on state borders. the Russian Black Sea Fleet gained the right to be present in Crimea for the following 20 years. The agreement on the Black Sea Fleet authorizes the leasing to Russia of Crimean facilities rather than territory. Still. these ideas were categorically rejected. rail and road transportation links — all lead to Ukraine. The change in the Russian attitude came in late 1994-1995 and was linked to the first war in Chechnya. But even then the Duma deputies continued to raise the issue of Sevastopol. Unsurprisingly. however. in 1997 Ukraine also secured its border with Russia's ally Belarus. the upper chamber of the Russian legislature. 1997. which finally recognized Russia's borders with Ukraine." As an additional step to bar the possibility of a border dispute by proxy. Moscow's official position changed in favor of the central governments — in Georgia. saw at last a momentous breakthrough between Russia and Ukraine.28 These accords did not enjoy the full support of Russian elites.Chapter III. to study the question of a condominium for Sevastopol. The Western Facade was prevented in part by Moscow's crude divisive tactic. Confronted with Chechen separatism. appealed to Ukraine as late as April 1997. Defying many of his advisers and associates. In exchange. The Duma finally endorsed 167 . not Russia. President Yeltsin went to Kiev to sign a Treaty on Cooperation and Partnership on May 31. The condominium would create an inseparable link between Ukraine and Russia. The treaty affirms the "immutability of existing borders.
29 Although resolved for the moment as a RussianUkrainian issue. making the relationship unpromising. and the Crimean Tartar autonomous republic.000 and 500. More accurate figures are not available. not the start of an era of close cooperation. Ukraine and Russia have been drifting apart. numbering now anywhere between 250.Part Two. under Turkey's protection. for the status of many of these people is not fixed. are indigenous to the area. Rather than continuing on a collision course. Since the late 1980s. it took the Russian political class as a whole seven years to internalize Ukraine's independence and the loss of Crimea and Sevastopol. Fears are expressed in Russia that the new situation favors Turkey by destroying the historical Russian-Turkish Treaty framework30 and thus removing obstacles to restoring Turkey's involvement in Crimea in the future. mainly from Uzbekistan.000. Many are still citizens of Uzbekistan. Crimea has the potential of reemerging as a seat of conflict. The Crimean khanate. the Crimean Tartars who. with the Russian public following the government in accepting the peninsula's status as part of Ukraine. Thus. Russia's Three Facades the treaty only in December 1998. 168 . when the local Tartars grow more powerful and become more assertive. was suppressed in 1944. Russo-Ukrainian differences have become chronic. involving the third major ethnic group. unlike both Slav nations. and the Federation Council in February 1999. which was established in 1920. the Tartars have been returning to Crimea. The breakthrough meant primarily exiting from the danger zone of potential conflict and confrontation. Their lack of political rights and widespread unemployment makes them easy converts to militant Islam. was overrun by the Russian Empire in 1783. In the second half of the 1990s. although not particularly dangerous.
According to this view. Some Russians raise the specter of NATO navies sneaking in and threatening the Russian heartland with cruise missiles.Chapter III. or a multilateral one. preventing internationalization of the Kerch Strait. The border issue as such is not a major problem. Later. they propose joint use of the sea as internal waters.32 Meanwhile. where Russia suffered a major setback.31 The negotiations will take much time. The Western Facade A footnote to the Crimea issue is the status of the Sea of Azov. 169 . mutual complaints will be traded.33 but it could become a symptom of the bilateral and even regional political dynamic. which is the only outlet from Azov to the Black Sea. Ukraine's problem is not so much Russian neo-imperialism as the country's marginalization because of the elites' inability to go ahead with reforming the economy. geopolitical concerns over NATO enlargement. domestic instability in Ukraine. in declining order of probability. Initially. similar to the Montreux convention regulating the regime of the Black Sea Straits. Moscow's concern is that delimitation of the basin between Russia and Ukraine would leave the sea open for thirdcountry ships. threaten the current balance in Russo-Ukrainian relations. In the medium-term. Russia insisted on preventing the internationalization of the Sea of Azov. but a serious border conflict off Kerch remains unlikely. ethno-political issues in Crimea. which is rather small (38. having to agree to a division of the seabed. Azov should not be allowed to repeat the fate of the Caspian. it preferred a bilateral agreement modeled on the Soviet-Iranian treaty on the Caspian.000 square kilometers) in area and until 1991 a Soviet internal body of water. Instead. and the revival of great-power politics in Russia can.
rivalry is far more probable. Finally. Nothing illustrates this better than the example of Moldova. wedged between Ukraine and Romania. was comparatively easy to make and. they (Moscow. For both Moscow and Kiev (an eventually for Minsk too). which first allowed themselves to be drawn in the confrontation and then used force to stop the hostilities. Ukraine is caught between the two: it is no longer part of Russia. and Minsk) will not team up. Russian troops. surprisingly to many. but is extremely difficult to realize. one of the smallest and least ethnically distinct countries to have emerged from the breakup of the USSR. Kiev. The positive choice ("Ukraine is part of Europe") was even easier to make.Part Two. The initial political choice ("Ukraine is not part of Russia"). it is difficult to go back on it. once independence is proclaimed. Right now. which has been acting as an 170 . Moldova: An Outpost Too Far Russia has no border with Moldova. but not yet — and this is a long yet — part of organized Europe. the major pole of attraction will be the European Union. at the end of the first post-Soviet decade. which tore the country apart roughly along the Dniester River in 1991-1992. are still deployed in Transdniestria. also to carry out. Even though they recognize that there is not a chance they will be admitted to the European Union in the foreseeable future. essentially negative. Still. Ironically. the reemergence of the Eastern Slav trio as a coherent political and economic whole is not to be expected. but it has been closely involved in its domestic conflict. Integration of the poor and destitute is rare. Russia's Three Facades state and society. Ukraine has appeared perhaps the most "Soviet" of the former republics of the Union.
there were two schools of thought in the Russian establishment. The other one. when the Russian government launched its ill-fated first attempt to crush Chechen separatism. Russia has also been the principal third-party mediator in the conflict and the main peacekeeper. and Russia's mediation services. The need to fight the rebels on its own territory diminished the political and material support that Russia was giving to other separatist statelets. The Western Facade independent state since the breakup of the USSR. above all the military. In view of the scarcity of other resources available to the Russian government. In this particular case. no about-face occurred. One. largely pro-Western. the other one prevailed in the parliament and had influential allies in the power ministries. and intensified its mediating efforts. This neat division continued until late 1994. to make the NIS more pliant. Moscow reaffirmed its recognition of CIS countries' territorial integrity. and will soon be absorbed by Romania. through its participation in CIS and bilat- 171 . bent on the re-establishment of the USSR.Chapter III. which allowed it to use their existence. The first school was located mainly in the Presidential and some government structures (above all the Foreign Ministry). Russia's interests are geopolitical (keeping Moldova within its orbit. geopolitical resources were the most reliable ones. attempted to use the cases of separatism as instruments of pressure vis-a-vis the newly independent states. From the outset. treating separatists as rebels. there were fears initially that an independent Moldova will not be a viable state. Yet. Russia could not overlook the geopolitical value of the unrecognized entities. and preferred to deal with the recognized governments. the territorial unity of Moldova depends to a large extent on Moscow's position. believed in the finality of post-Soviet territorial arrangements. Thus.
consider the self-proclaimed Dniester Republic as Russia's strategic bridgehead. and preventing its merger with Romania). but in fact preserving the special identity of Transdniestria). Russia's Three Facades eral economic and political agreements. Communist and nationalist factions within Russia.34 federated (with Transdniestria having a special status. In the future. aimed at both the Balkans and Ukraine.Part Two. neutral (but with a Russian military base in its territory). however. geostrategic (maintaining a military presence in the area and preventing Moldovan membership in NATO). Peace and stability are highest where Russia borders on Norway and Finland. The unrecognized government in Tiraspol has come to rely on support from influential Russian quarters. Romania in particular. Ideally. but the hard legacy of recent history and the difficulties that ethnic Russian populations 172 . The Baltic states may eventually join this category. These forces are even prepared to treat the conflict along the Dniester River as a RussianMoldovan problem. and humanitarian (ensuring fair treatment of the local Russians. could play a significant role in shaping Russian policies. NATO enlargement toward South-Eastern Europe. Moscow may become interested in having a buffer wedged between second-wave candidate Romania and third-wave hopeful Ukraine. the Russian government would welcome a Moldova that is sovereign (no integration within a Greater Romania). Under certain circumstances. Russia's European frontier appears the most stable and peaceful. and a special relationship with Russia). and gravitating toward the Russian Federation. Conclusion Overall.
Expert. 1999. The Security Council document. The defining factor in the European security landscape is NATO enlargement. the extent. pace. p. Russia faces the challenge of integration. cit. as quoted in the above article.Chapter III. and insisting that its interests be respected.16-17. #40. now Pechenga. Pyotr Vlasov. Russia's failure to prevent its first wave. According to the Russian Minister for Natural Resources. The difficulties of separation will continue to have an impact on border-related problems between Russia and Ukraine. which has already proved to be difficult. The Western Facade have had in becoming naturalized there has increased tensions with Russia. October 25.7. a Soviet "window on the West. op. "Mir v Barentsevom more". p. Some of the borders – such as between Belarus and Poland — could assume those functions. and quality of enlargement will be of key importance. May 12. most Russians. stitching the country together will be a long-term process. in the Murmansk region). with Russia playing a role. 1999. With Belarus. these may reach 88 billion tons of nominal fuel. The direct contact between Norway and Russia was restored in 1947 when Finland lost its narrow corridor to the Arctic (with the town of Petsamo. potentially the most dangerous in the former Soviet Union. and the likelihood of successive waves make the prospect of dividing lines in Europe real." and a neutral venue for various contacts between Cold War adversaries. however. NOTES 1 This pioneering role succeeds Finland's previous role as the closest Western country to the USSR. did not want to emigrate permanently. Thus. 2 3 4 5 6 173 . Kommersant. Immigration restrictions imposed by Oslo were one reason. In Moldova.
1998. and Pytalovo/Abrene with Russia.87 11 Exactly one-third of Poland's territory. linking the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. The arguments suggesting the "non-finality" of Lithuania's territory were later used by Russian nationalists such as Sergei Baburin. during President Yeltsin's state visit to Stockholm. to Lithuania. 174 .km. cit.km) was placed under Soviet administration in 1945 by the Potsdam agreement until the peace treaty with Germany. Cf. Once Germany was defeated. This sector may be endowed with 15-20 million tons of fuel. 17 Sergei Baburin. and the German peace settlement had to follow a long and tortuous route before it was finalized in 1990. German-held until 1923 and from 1939 through 1945.111.000 sq. "Spor vokrug Klaipedy. in December 1997. Kaliningrad. p. which left parts of the first Estonian and Latvian republics: Ivangorod. op. was part of Germany in 1937. When Lithuania was trying to break away from the USSR in 19881991. Vlast. Na perelome. Cf. in the latter case. was returned to Lithuania when the Red Army marched into Poland in September 1939.. until 1946 Königsberg.Part Two. occupied by Poland since 1920. The treaty was never signed. the Soviet authorities also returned Klaipeda (Memel). Russia's Three Facades 7 8 Ibid." Nezavisimaya gazeta. or 104. 16 The actual borders with Estonia and Latvia followed the lines drawn in 1944. 1997. and the region (15. p. 9 10 Andrei Nikolayev. The Vilnius region. 14 Lithuania also found itself in the somewhat unusual position of a country that actually gained territory through the actions of the Soviet Union.. p. a small principality that between the 10th and 12th centuries controlled both sides of the Kerch Strait.000 sq.45. 12 Kievan Rus had something like this in Tmutarakan. November 22. 18 E.6. Kaliningrad's Governor Leonid Gorbenko. local pro-Union circles and Moscow were not shy to point out to these facts in a vain attempt to deter the pro-independence movement. p. Moscow: Sovetsky pisatel. Andrei Nikolayev. 13 Including.g. Pechory/Petseri. 15 The Lithuanian treaty is still not ratified by the Russian parliament. Na perelome: zapiski russkogo generala.
The Western Facade 19 In the 14th and 15th centuries. Moscow: EPI Center.000-strong joint Russo-Belarussian force to deter NATO. 175 . Spring 1997. "Ukraina kak natsionaliziruyushcheesya gosudarstvo. A more appropriate parallel could be drawn with Britain and France maintaining their military presence in their former colonies. 2000. "Russia-Ukraine Rapprochement? The Black Sea Fleet Accords. Alexei Arbatov. the bulk of the nobility were Slavs. p. Belarus i novaya Evropa: transformatsiya obshchestvennykh ozhidanii. the Grand Duchy. p. Except for the ruling dynasty. which was Orthodox but Lithuanian. which at that time included Belarus. and cites U." Survival Vol. 22 In the early 1990s. Moscow: Sovershenno Sekretno. and the Vilnius district in neighboring Lithuania. In his 2000 annual message to the National Assembly he called for "normal relations" with the North Atlantic alliance. 1999. Bezopasnost: rossiyskiy vybor. Yevgeny Primakov.Chapter III. central Ukraine with Kiev. p. potential trouble spots involving Belarus included Grodno.S. Autumn 1997. was overwhelmingly Eastern Slav in ethnic composition. Gody v bolshoy politike. President Lukashenko pursues both options simultaneously. as well as Lithuania itself. and in anticipation of Putin's visit to Minsk in April 2000 he called for the creation of a 300.395 26 James Sherr. 28 Alexei Arbatov calls this an example of "intimacy" existing in RussoUkrainian politico-military relations. agreements with Britain and other countries.33-50." Pro et Contra. p.39. 1995. 25 A long-term lease of the naval base was also believed to be able to soothe the public sentiment in Russia.#3. 23 In fact.214 21 Leonid Zaiko. 1999.144-145. the center of the country's Catholic minority (a very conservative estimate of officially 10 percent). 27 Such as Alexei Miller. Cf. Minsk.95. p. and the principalities along the western edge of the current Russian Federation. Moscow: Obozrevatel. Orthodox Christianity was its religion and the old Belarussian dialect was its official language. 24 It is famous for the staunch defense it offered in the Crimean War of 18531856 and during the Second World War in 1941-1942. 20 Belaya kniga rossiyskikh spetssluzhb.
the trade volume was halved from $14 billion to $7 billion. while recognizing the commonality of the language. Ukraine ceased to be Russia's main trading partner. p. 34 The Romanian-Moldovan treaty. 31 Alexei Alexandrov. 33 At the end of 1999. while Ukrainian gas debt to Russia. Neither side wants unification: Moldovan elites prefer independence to subordination to Bucharest. January 17. "Ten Kaspiya nad Azovskim morem. which won't come soon. from 1993-2000. both sides agree. can only be achieved within a united Europe. stresses Moldova's independence and national identity. after NATO enlargement and the Russian language issue.1. and Kiev's inability to pay. 30 In particular. in which Turkey granted Crimea full independence. 176 . April 29. sliding by 1998 to fourth place. has become the principal economic issue between the two countries. culture and civilization.3. right behind Belarus. and Romania is set on the prospect of EU and NATO membership. 2000. p. to negotiate. "Biznes v Rossii. Unity." Nezavisimaya gazeta.g. Russia's Three Facades 29 In 1995. the 1791 Yasi Treaty. which recognized Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and the 1774 Treaty of Kucuk-Kainarji. 32 See. e. In this period. 1998. Russian experts ranked it the third most serious problem..Part Two. which took seven years." supplement to Rossiyskaya gazeta.
Long gone were the days when Russia could dream of gaining access to the warm seas. The tide has turned since then. more broadly. and Russia has had to retrench farther and farther north. the most powerful factor in the south was Islam. this process will profoundly affect Russian nation. Russia's problems in Chechnya and.CHAPTER IV The Southern Tier O n its southern borders. Instead of the European Union. in the North Caucasus are emblematic of the far more important and fundamental issue of establishing Russian identity in relation to Muslim peoples both inside and outside Russia's borders. From the Black Sea to the Altai Mountains. from the Caucasus to the Caspian to Kazakhstan. All its bound- 177 . whose proximity was the principal moderating influence in CEE. The states formed there following the breakup of the USSR were even less homogenous than those to the west of Russia.and statebuilding. Russia has no borders inherited from the Soviet past. The unsuccessful intervention in Afghanistan in 1979-1989 was the last and unsuccessful attempt to project Russian power southward — whatever the actual reasons for the intervention itself. there was virtually no experience of running a modern state to rely upon. In a different way from what is happening along the country's European boundaries. Russia confronts a set of problems very different from those that the new Eastern Europe faces. Moreover.
receives little cooperation from Georgia and Azerbaijan in its own effort to put down the Chechen resistance. Latvia. including Crimea. which gave de facto support to the Abkhaz. Moscow. In several cases — Abkhazia. gained the upper hand over the forces of the central government. All these issues come against the background of intense international commercial and political competition centered on the oil-rich Caspian basin.Part Two. creating the phenomenon of unrecognized but very real statehood. creating the reality of divided nations. By the same token. and the meeting is rather tumultuous. In the West. Karabakh. the 15 million ethnic Russians permanently living in Estonia. 178 . and Kazakhstan — are weak and occasionally failing states that are threatened with real or potential domestic turmoil and fragmentation. from Kazan to Astrakhan. including Russia. Several ethnic groups uncomfortably straddle the new borders. at least initially. and all are still uncertain. Ossetia — domestic strife has resulted in civil wars and armed conflicts that threatened to spill over into other countries. Azerbaijan. mainly in the North Caucasus and along the Volga. which has clear strategic overtones. In all wars of secession. Russia's Three Facades aries are very new. many are considered arbitrary. are a salient presence. the two medieval khanates that were overrun by Moscow in the 1550s. it was the rebels who. old-style geopolitics is meeting novel geo-economics. Karabakh Armenians. which is fighting secessionism in Chechnya. and South Ossetians. Thus. In the south the problem of some 6 million Russians in northern Kazakhstan is compounded by the issue of the identity of Muslims living inside the Russian Federation. the war in Chechnya threatens to spread to Georgia. Russia's immediate neighbors — Georgia. and eastern and southern Ukraine.
They are as distant from each other in terms of ethnicity and religion as most Europeans are from the peoples of the Middle East. the founding editor of the influential Nezavisi- 179 . that poses the most concern. moving from north to south (i. It is the inner abroad. Russia has to deal with a layer cake of territories: the traditional far abroad (Turkey and Iran). again going in the same direction.Chapter IV.e. The North Caucasus In the Caucasus. As Vitaly Tretyakov. Some analysts even suggest that "the North Caucasus has become to the Russian Federation what the Baltic republics were for the USSR or what Poland had been for the Russian Empire. How real is this danger to Russia's territorial integrity? The North Caucasus is a relatively small area of fairly limited economic value (except for the Caspian oil transit routes) and populated by ethnic groups that both imperial and Soviet authorities have traditionally found very difficult to control." namely. The Southern Tier In the present chapter. an inherently alien and permanently subversive element. the post-Soviet near abroad (Armenia. The dismantlement of the USSR divided some close relatives and lumped together several strangers. There is little cultural affinity between the Russians and the Caucasian mountaineers. Azerbaijan and Georgia) and what some analysts call the inner abroad. we will first deal with the Caucasus. from the current Russian border outward). which consider themselves to be only associate members of the Russian Federation. and then with Central Asia. which includes Chechnya and a string of republics stretching from the Caspian to the Black Sea.1 Whatever happens to the North Caucasus has implications for Tatarstan and Bashkortostan.
made a feeble and failed attempt to crush the UDI.4 Chechnya unilaterally proclaimed its independence in the fall of 1991. Russia's Three Facades maya gazeta.Part Two. Moscow tolerated lawlessness in Chechnya." To others. "it is a strange Russia that includes Chechnya but excludes Crimea. leading to Russia's collapse as a state.2 Traditionalists who usually see reality in stark black and white terms argue that the only alternative to Russia's southern expansion is continuous retrenchment farther and farther to the north. adventurously started in an attempt to crush the Chechen independence 180 . when the Soviet Union still formally existed and the Russian Federation was not yet a de facto sovereign country. but also across the entire southern periphery of Russia. This made Chechnya a prime source of contraband of all kinds. Through its treatment of Chechnya. Chechnya's contacts with the outside world were beyond the Federation's control. In the three years that followed. has said (before the second war). The government of the Russian republic. which two months previously had encouraged the nationalist leader Dzokhar Dudayev to carry out a coup d'etat that toppled a pro-Soviet administration. not only in the North Caucasus. for letting it go would provoke a domino effect across the country. it is no less clear that Moscow must try to hold on to the North Caucasus no matter what. yet its administrative boundaries with the neighboring Russian regions remained fully transparent. the Russian Federation actually defines itself.3 Chechnya Chechnya stands out as the most important factor by far. The first Chechen war (1994-1996). its rapid criminalization and de facto independence.
If the government had opted to bring Chechnya into the Russian economic.Chapter IV. and map out an appropriate strategy. security. and provided the necessary material incentives for it to remain part of the Federation. the economic incentives of its market. Russia could have imposed an economic. but too intransigent as partners. work out a policy to reach those goals. and Chechnya's need for rehabilitation. it could have supported moderate leaders such as Aslan Maskhadov. it could have adopted a policy aimed at helping Chechnya toward independence. isolated the radicals. But following the Khasavyurt agreement. General Lebed's ouster as Secretary of the Security Council and the unpopularity of the Khasavyurt accord. Russia reluctantly agreed to postpone consideration of Chechnya's final status. which was forced to concede military defeat. If the Federation had concluded that the best option for Russia would be an independent Chechen state. cordoning it off from the outside world. nothing was done. while negotiating economic. The Southern Tier movement that Moscow itself had been fostering and ended in disaster for Russia. which some critics compared to the 1918 treaty of BrestLitovsk (only this time the German giant was replaced by 181 .5 Under the Khasavyurt agreement negotiated by General Alexander Lebed.6 This deadline should have moved the Russian government to define its goals in the region. as a means of softening Grozny's position. financial. Given its financial levers. 2001. Had the Chechens proved to be independent-minded. political and security fold as an associate member of the Russian Federation. which had to be determined within a five-year period. and transport blockade. extending to December 31. and other arrangements with it. it could have achieved an acceptable solution.
on the other hand. was aimed at creating a Grozny-dominated Islamic "mountainous confederacy" from the Caspian to the Black Sea and effectively easing Russia out from both. left Russian policy toward Chechnya an orphan. a haven for terrorism. there was no question of taking further military action against the separatists.7 Chechen expansion. which felt increasing pressure from Chechnya's warlords. From their perspective. The resulting drift was in fact preparing the way for a new confrontation. Immediately following the ignominious defeat of 1996. most members of the Russian political elite saw Chechnya all along as the prime source of tension. they felt.8 Moscow's passivity with regard to Chechnya in 19961999 turned this into a self-fulfilling prophecy. True. Dagestan was believed to be the first target of this expansion. the new secretary. In October 1998. thus. would serve Russia's goal by preventing Chechnya from consolidating itself and allowing Moscow to win in the second round. for this would guarantee Chechen independence and weaken the Russian's position in the entire region. Runaway radicalism and the resulting chaos. was a political lightweight. Most Russian leaders and the majority of 182 .Part Two. Ivan Rybkin. Russia's Three Facades the Chechen dwarf). and a geopolitical threat. no policy emerged. bolstering the moderates was against Russian interests. Russia was. Moscow stopped pumping oil along the Baku-Novorossiisk pipeline via Chechnya. and although Moscow accepted the results of the Chechen presidential elections and signed another agreement with Grozny in May 1997. reluctant to use its economic leverage to bolster the Maskhadov government. A number of Russian government officials believed that the failure of Chechen state-building would almost naturally lead the republic back into the fold.
to be patrolled by police. The "Operational federal task force". and Turkey to the United States.Chapter IV. Russia's problems were both legal and resourcerelated.9 Kidnappings for ransom became one of the principal sources of income for the warlords. including President Aslan Maskhadov.000. not protected by border guards. Chechnya. its refusal to act as one notwithstanding. A more serious case was linked to a road across the mountain passes that linked Chechnya to Georgia and thus provided Grozny with its only free overland access to the outside world. however. however. Grozny could legally establish relations with Russia's regions.11 183 . and its high-level representatives. They were also inadequate. could travel abroad — departing from Georgia. was initially constrained in its criticism by the fact that a road agreement had been concluded between local Chechen and Georgian communities. Azerbaijan. was still officially a subject of the Federation. Using this legal fiction. and the regular Armed Forces. Using the Border Troops to close an internal boundary was not legal. Interior troops. by means of "closing" its border. numbering in 1997-1998 about 20.10 The perpetrators of these crimes were never caught or brought to justice. and police units were not effective. Cross-border raids into the neighboring provinces of Russia became commonplace. This legal situation had implications for the 774 km long boundary between Chechnya and the adjacent Russian regions. such as Tatarstan and Dagestan. Organized crime took full advantage of these transparent administrative boundaries. was unable to protect even its own units from Chechen commando raids. The Southern Tier public opinion discussed the various ways of isolating the rebellious republic. Chechnya to them was a safehaven. the "Chechen border" remained an internal administrative line. Moscow. Under Russian law.
Even if those hurdles were overcome. the Russian government has not grown more inclined to grant Chechnya independence. "Expelling" the Chechens from the Federation also raised a difficult constitutional issue. Since Khasavyurt. The Cossacks resolutely oppose ceding two historically nonChechen districts on the left bank of the Terek River that were added to the Chechen-Ingush Republic when it was formed in 1957. including Yabloko14 and Zhirinovsky's LDPR. Even if the issues of status and territory were to be resolved. Although keeping Chechnya within Russia appeared next to impossible. Russia's Three Facades The openness of Chechnya's borders made it a safehaven for political extremists who raised the banner of Wahhabism and for plain criminals. It couldn't be done by the President and/or parliament alone. turning the administrative line into an international border was fraught with many problems. however. The Russian Constitution. the federal authorities came up with various versions of a new status for Chechnya — more elevated than any other region of Russia. Political parties. There was a constant fear that the Russian Federation could follow the Soviet model of disintegration.13 In an attempt to square the circle. Both used the lawless republic as a base for their activities in the North Caucasus region. drafted 184 . one would have to deal with territorial issues. prohibits holding referenda on the issue of cession of territory. 12 Moscow's prime concern was the implications of the Chechen precedent for the rest of Russia. One would have had to go to the nation. the borderline between Russia and Chechnya would likely become a permanent frontline. and most likely access to the Caspian Sea. it would have demanded as compensation the Chechen-populated districts in Dagestan. for Grozny to have agreed to that. but definitely less than full sovereignty.Part Two.
Even the moderate President Maskhadov was not prepared to give up to Russia in peacetime what was gained on the battlefield." totally ignoring Ingushetia and Dagestan as factors and strangely oblivious of the paucity of their own resources. Ingushetia. in the Russian-Chechen situation non-military threats such as organized crime. as in Buynaksk in December 1997. Most importantly. Chechnya shared a common 80 km long border with Georgia. a year before the first war started. were mindful of the underside of the military presence. the opposite has proved to be true. and North Ossetia had "made their choice" to stay within the Russian Federation. drugs. In December 1993. would have none of that. The troop presence in the area (which Chechens say is emblematic of "Russia's occupation of the Caucasus") has both served as an excuse for commando raids on Russian forces. In fact. Chechnya could be placed in a "cordon sanitaire. They all tended to explore the legal territory between Tatarstan and Belarus (within a union with Russia). They kept the option of joining the CIS. and arms trafficking. and continued to function as a reliable and cheap source of weapons/ammunition supply to the Chechens. of course. It was too facile to claim that since Dagestan. While the Stavropol authorities were asking the Interior Ministry to deploy a regiment close to the Chechen 185 . which was practically off limits to the Russian forces until December 1999. however. the Russian law-enforcement agencies insisted on "closing the Chechen border." For one thing. etc.Chapter IV. Grozny. prevail. Even a more massive presence of Russian troops would not yield results. but only as an independent state. The Southern Tier similar projects. The result was a stalemate. The local authorities. Attempts to isolate Chechnya were largely unsuccessful. while wanting military protection.
000-man strong special militia regiment for border protection. They would not have succeeded had it not been for the unwillingness of the Dagestanis themselves (above all the Avars) to submit to Chechen domination. By the late 1990s. Cornered and having nothing much to lose. a haven for international terrorists. rather than less. of a problem for Russia. the Russian forces found it hard to beat off a Chechen invasion of Dagestan. In August and September 1999. then about a security zone inside the republic. with a clear possibility that it could turn international. and an incitement for the rest of the North Caucasus to shake off Russian rule. In early 1998. Russia's Three Facades border to prevent the "annexation" of the adjacent strip of land. Russians awakened to the prospect of Chechnya's turning into a radical Islamist territory. they opposed any widening of the security zone. Dagestan planned to raise a 1. Ingushetia. At the beginning it spoke about a sanitary zone around Chechnya. The latter formula suggested a de facto partition of Chechnya whose Russian-administered north- 186 . and later about creating a liberated area north of the Terek River. For its part. Surrounding and cordoning off the Chechens did not bring them to submission. The Russian government initially took a cautious approach to the scope of its "anti-terrorist operation" in Chechnya. fearing a de facto annexation of their lands by federal forces — like those of the Lezghin people! The federal authorities' inability to protect Chechnya's immediate neighbors made some of those neighbors turn to self-defense. the Chechens became more. ever suspicious of the federal forces.Part Two. Russia helped create a critical mass. The local conflict over Chechnya threatened to become a regional one. which later exploded. started putting together a native Ingush division controlled by the republic itself.
The Southern Tier ern third should have become a showcase for the benefits of staying within the Russian Federation. claimed by Russia in April 2000. at the price of making the Federation even more asymmetrical. Meanwhile.Chapter IV. Eventually. military control over the territory can only be tenuous and limited to the major towns and main roads in daytime. It could last a long time without solving Russia's problems with Chechnya. Eventually. but not inspire it. and the principle of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation was reasserted. In the absence of such a solution. and Russia's basic interest in national and regional security. The tragedy of Chechnya (and of Russia) lies in the Chechens' continuing inability to organize themselves politically — for peacetime reconstruction and nation-building. Military occupation under a hand-picked civilian or a Russian governor-general would demand loyalty. however. The Khasavyurt agreement was declared overtaken by events. the Russian military advance went so well that the government dropped its cautious stand and decided on the total eradication of the armed rebellion and re-incorporation of Chechnya into Russia. or start helping the Chechens build a modern state of their own that would not be a threat to its neighbors. 187 . its power of attraction was to have undermined Chechen separatism. does not equal a political solution. Military victory. the Russians will either have to agree to give Chechnya a very high degree of autonomy that is only available in a confederacy (which are not very durable arrangements). Any eventual solution must meet Chechnya's fundamental interest in self-government and access to economic opportunity. A prerequisite for any lasting political solution should be the formation of a credible Chechen authority that commands the support of both the population of the republic.
In July 1992 the Dagestani parliament. the border with Chechnya. and a critical loss of Moscow's influence across the entire region south of the Volga-Don line.15 The changing power balance among the various ethnic groups in Dagestan was also opening the door to do- 188 . the federal government chose not to confront the republican authorities. the first of which began a year later. The border hardened progressively as a result of the Russian forces' pullout from Azerbaijan in 1993 and the Chechen wars. for the first time. a possible Muslim separatist revival in Astrakhan. Russia's Three Facades the refugees. a potential territorial dispute with Kalmykia over the Nogai steppes.Part Two. there are three sets of border-related issues: the external border with Azerbaijan that divides the Lezghin people. Dagestan suffered much from that first Chechen war and the lawlessness that reigned in Chechnya thereafter. it was close to being drawn itself into another war. ruled against establishing a border regime with Azerbaijan that would severely constrain contacts among the Lezghins. but in 1999. and the diaspora. and the internal boundaries among the three dozen ethnic groups which make up the republic. openly defying Moscow. The loss of Dagestan. In any case. would have meant that Russia would lose twothirds of its remaining Caspian coastline and the continental shelf. This authority would develop a new constitution for Chechnya and negotiate its final status with Moscow. The Rest of the North Caucasus In Dagestan. At that time. Russia had few resources to implement border controls. besides creating a regional generator of tension dominated by Chechen radicals.
There are suspicions that they may not only be after territory. Lying just north of the mountains — up to the Rostov-Astrakhan line — southern Russia has become a vast 189 . are not in full control of the situation. including the flow of money. The Southern Tier mestic conflict with the prospect of the republic's disintegration into small warring enclaves. Yet. and weapons. The main problem is that the Russian government does not have a coherent policy or even a region-wide approach to the political issues in the North Caucasus. but independence as well. The example of the two wars must have reduced any attraction for going the way of Chechnya in the region. three villages in the Kodor Valley functioned as a de facto mini-state under a Wahhabi leadership. Unfreezing it would open a Pandora's box. A moratorium on the 1991 ill-conceived law on territorial rehabilitation is still in place. Between 1996 and 1999.Chapter IV. The most the Federation has been able to achieve is to keep an armed truce between North Ossetia and Ingushetia. These leaders. There can be no solution based on the exclusiveness of an ethnic group's control over a given territory. however. contraband. 17 The twin republics of KabardinoBalkaria and Karachaevo-Cherkessia have been edging toward divorce. But it has not been able to reconcile the parties.16 Throughout the first post-Soviet decade. Chechnya remained the only Russian territory with clear separatist aspirations. and largely let the local leaders manage the situation elsewhere as they see fit. Political leaders in Adygeya claim much of the Russian Black Sea coast all the way to Abkhazia. internal boundaries remain an issue virtually everywhere in the Northern Caucasus. which Moscow has been able to forestall. North Ossetia and Ingushetia fought a brief conflict over territory in 1992.
however. Thus. Russia's Three Facades and vulnerable borderland. During the brief presidency of Zviad Gamsakhurdia (1991-1992). largely unresponsive to Moscow. running mostly through very rugged terrain. these borders have not yet been formalized. both descendants of the real ones and pretenders. were defined only rather generally. Arming the Cossacks and recognizing their traditional role as border keepers is unlikely to solve any serious practical problems. maps were published in Georgia showing a stretch of the Russian Black Sea coast. By 1999. The Cossacks. Russia's borders with Georgia. there are 190 . Then all the borders in the North Caucasus. as part of historical Georgia.18 Georgia and Azerbaijan Within the USSR. including Sochi.Part Two. Only 70 percent of Russia's borderline with Azerbaijan had been agreed on. armed formations in the non-(ethnic) Russian republics is another. semi-official. The presence of large but ill-disciplined militias. and the reality of conflicts from Abkhazia to South Ossetia to Chechnya. as Georgia struggled to exercise control within its Soviet-era borders. would be turned into battle lines. no territorial claims were raised. the divided nations phenomenon. not just one. and unofficial local. is one of them. have been lobbying Moscow to grant them a status and supply them with weapons. and a mere 40 percent with Georgia. this would immediately create many more new ones. Rather. Provoking an explosion of official. Officially. The South Caucasus Russia's border problems within the "second layer" of the cake stem from the unfinished business of border delimitation.
a divided people). the two independent-minded regions inside Georgia. acting with or without the formal approval of the Russian government. Moscow failed to convert these tactical military successes into lasting strategic ones. Tolerating separatism in a neighboring country and fighting it only 200 to 400 kilometers 191 . etc. Ever since. The big issues confronted the two countries indirectly. again led by the military establishment. but in a very serious way. In 1992-1993 this greatly facilitated Russia's direct military involvement in the conflict there. the border has provided Russia with a channel for exercising influence in Abkhazia and — indirectly — on Georgia by such means as altering the border regime. On issues pertaining to the functioning of the border. applying or easing sanctions. The Russian military. They relate to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. there is no direct territorial dispute between Russia and Azerbaijan. however. but the Lezghin issue (like the Ossets. Russia routinely deals with the Abkhazian authorities. also helped the Karabakh Armenians to consolidate their control over the area. The Russian peacekeeping forces on the cease-fire line between the Abkhazian and the Georgian forces are sometimes referred to in Tbilisi as "border guards for Abkhazia". The Russians. In both cases. They will be referred to later. and Chechnya. while rejecting nationalist calls for admitting Abkhazia into the Russian Federation. Ever since. Moscow attempted to use the Abkhazia issue to bring pressure to bear on Tbilisi. The Southern Tier only small issues that remain between Russia and Georgia directly. Russia shares a border with Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia. Similarly. and the conflicts in Karabakh and Chechnya weigh heavily on the bilateral relationship.Chapter IV. helped the Abkhazian separatists defeat the Georgian forces in 1992 and 1993.
The South's relationship with Georgia proper can be tenuous at best. despite the abject poverty of the territory and its significant Georgian minority which. have traditionally been the most loyal ethnic group in the entire mountain region — which gave Vladikavkaz. was not expelled on a grand scale. it is hard to believe that the Ossetians on both sides of the border will treat each other as foreigners. this option was never seriously considered. Moscow must realize that the unresolved Abkhazian conflict is not only undermining its credibility as a mediator between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. but encourages separatism in the North Caucasus and further spoils the relationship between Georgia and Russia. occupying a central position in the Caucasus. Russia can hardly ignore this. However.Part Two. this influence does not extend very much to Tbilisi. unique leverage with Moscow. A battalion-strong Russian force is stationed in South Ossetia. the Ossetians. the North's capital. aided by Russia. The Georgian-Ossetian conflict resolution. For Moscow. has been as slow as the Abkhazian one. Despite the 1992 referendum in the south that called for reunification of the two Ossetias. Eventually. another divided people who unlike the Ossets lack any form of territorial autonomy in either 192 . unlike in Abkhazia. The Lezghins. nominally as peacekeepers. On South Ossetia. and Moscow evidently hopes that any future agreement on the area's status will preserve its influence there — either directly or through North Ossetia. Russia's Three Facades away on one's own territory essentially undermined the credibility of Moscow's position in both Tbilisi and Baku. the federal authorities in Moscow and the government of North Ossetia took a moderate position. Even if an acceptable arrangement is finally worked out.
Others called for recruiting border guards mainly from among the local conscripts. which views the border along the Samur River. have provoked the Lezghin nationalist organization.19 The smaller issues between Russia and its neighbors in the Caucasus concern the actual passing of the borderline in strategically important areas such as mountain passes. Moscow attempted to cut off those supply lines by closing borders. which would include many of the most fertile lands that the Lezghins possess. supported by Makhachkala. in 1991. of Chechnya as a defiant anti-Moscow factor has complicated the situation on Russia's borders with both Georgia and Azerbaijan. bribes and constant humiliation. to demand a full demilitarization of the border. One such issue surfaced in the Daryal Valley in 1997 during a customs conflict over the smuggling of alcohol into Russia. which seasonally changes its bed. and the domestic problems in Azerbaijan provide fertile ground for Lezghin ethnic nationalism. During the 1994-1996 war.Chapter IV. The two countries served as corridors for the land-locked Chechnya. In a most unusual arrangement. The emergence. where the Russian Lezghins live. When Russia unilaterally moved a checkpoint inside what the Georgians regarded as their own territory. The Kremlin chose to back down. The Southern Tier Russia or Azerbaijan. the Russians won Georgia's consent in 1995 to deploy Russian border guards along the Georgian side of the 193 . as a clear and present irritant. More serious disputes relate to the Chechen war. resent the underside of Russian-Azeri border controls with their inevitable bureaucratic abuse. which prompted FPS Director Andrei Nikolayev to resign. Sadval. Moscow's plan. Georgians led a "peace march" on the Russian post. to create a standard five kilometer-wide border zone. The rising ethnic tensions within Dagestan.
have facilitated Chechnya's entry into the world of regional politics in the Caucasus. possibly leading to a confrontation between the West and Russia. Armenia. and Azerbaijan. on the one hand. the danger of its spillover into Georgia remains. The possibility of Russian forces hitting the alleged Chechen military camps in Georgia or pursuing the rebels across the border raised the specter of a direct conflict between the two countries. Russia remains a guarantor not only of the border between Turkey. Finally. Russia's borders are notoriously porous. greatly angering Russia. but also of the status of the autonomous republics of Ajaria (part of Georgia) and Nakhichevan (part of Azerbaijan). In 1999. Russian attempts to isolate Chechnya from the south were never fully successful. on the other. as in Dagestan. but it did not prevent the Chechens from receiving war materiel. the common Georgian-Chechen border and the geographical proximity of Chechnya to Azerbaijan in a situation where. As long as the conflict in Chechnya drags on. The OSCE mission in Georgia had to begin monitoring the "Chechen sector" of the Russian-Georgian border. Direct Chechen-Georgian and semi-direct Chechen-Azeri connections increased between the two wars. Geopolitically minded Russians stress the importance of the Megrin corridor 194 . and Georgia. Russia's Three Facades Chechen sector of the border. In fact.Part Two. Russia accused Georgia of tolerating the Chechen military presence on its territory. by virtue of the 1921 Russian-Turkish Treaty. Tbilisi rejected Moscow's proposal for a joint patrol of the Chechen stretch of the border. whose overland trade is mainly with Russia. Georgia charged that Russian aircraft was violating its airspace and bombing its territory. signed in Moscow. Russia's closure of its border with Azerbaijan in 1995-1996 angered the Azeris.
to the Caspian Sea. the issue has been the economic zones for the sea's exploration. The Caspian With respect to the Caspian.Chapter IV. led by LUKoil. however. seemed increasingly improbable. That dominance. The Southern Tier (in Armenia) separating Nakhichevan from the main territory of Azerbaijan. Most significantly. From the start. and Zangezur going to Azerbaijan. Precisely that goal runs against the interests of the littoral states. rather than borders. supported by Western oil companies and Turkey. Russia's main opponent on the issue of the Sea's status was Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan disputed Moscow's claim to an oil field in the northern Caspian. In the 195 . who hope to extract the maximum from the Caspian oil reserves and want to escape restoration of Moscow's dominance in the region. This apparently left Russia with a choice: withdraw its legal claim that the Caspian is a unique water reservoir not covered by the Law of the Sea Convention or try to use its formidable capabilities for denying to others the benefits of the use of the sea's resources. thus. Russia has been invoking the 1921 and 1940 treaties with Iran in an attempt to control much of the oil resources. Russia's relations with Turkmenistan soured over Moscow's inconsistency in a dispute between Ashgabat and Baku. preferred gaining a stake in the oil deals without much regard for the Russian Foreign Ministry's official position. Russian oil companies. which prevents Turkey from having a direct land link to Azerbaijan and. giving it direct land access to Nakhichevan and Turkey)20 even though it had few supporters on the ground. Moscow saw with a wary eye the resurfacing of the old idea of a territorial exchange between Armenia and Azerbaijan (with the Karabakh and Lachin corridor joining Armenia.
This formula was used in the RussianKazakh and Russian-Azeri agreement on the Caspian. In fact. as far as Russia is concerned. Kazakhstan The frictions over oil rights in the Caspian are not the most dangerous border problem between Russia and Kazakhstan. only the outer limit 196 . however. less directly. with the exception of Kazakhstan. Central Asia In 1924-1925. the longest international border anywhere in the world. Most of these new republics lay very far from the core Russian lands. and Kazakhstan were created from scratch. with the advent of the Putin presidency. Stalin almost single-handedly carved out Soviet republics from the territory of Russian Turkestan. Thus. but not the water or the surface of the sea. deciding what should belong to whom. pragmatically applying the principle of divide and rule. drew their borders.Part Two. Kyrgyzstan. Russia's Three Facades latter case. As to the Russian oil companies. Turkmenistan. Russia might be involved in the latent border disputes among Central Asian states and between those states and other Asian countries. there was no border. Moscow opted for a formula that would divide the seabed. Historically. such as Afghanistan and China. they were told to follow the official government policy line.21 Old khanates such as Bukhara and Khiva and Russian-ruled oblasts alike were suppressed. Russia was as vulnerable to an increase in tension in the region as anyone. Tajikistan. the principal issues in Central Asia relate to the border between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. and the new socialist nations of Uzbekistan.
Semipalatinsk. the north of the republic. While some Kazakh hordes joined Russia voluntarily. initially an autonomous region inside Soviet Russia. Aktyubinsk. had become heavily Russified. there is no serious irredentism for now either in Russia or among the ethnic Russian population in Northern Kazakhstan. Many Russians would probably agree with Solzhenitsyn that modern Kazakhstan is composed of southern Siberia. which the Kazakhs regard as their historical land. which leaves them only the deserts in between. was proclaimed in 1920 in Orenburg.Chapter IV. again mainly from Russia's industrial centers. such as Uralsk. the southern Urals. mainly from Russia and Ukraine.24 The Kazakhs. witnessed a major centrally organized influx of settlers. others had to be conquered. mainly Russians. As a result. At that time a number of Russian-founded and -populated towns.22 The first Soviet republic of Kazakhstan. The Southern Tier of Russia's advance. whose task was to radically expand Soviet grain production. Ust-Kamenogorsk. Its status was upgraded to that of a constituent republic in 1936. the northern Kazakh steppes. Still. for their part. and Akmolinsk23 were placed outside of the Russian Federation. fear that the Russians covet the northern part of the country and the Chinese the south-eastern part. There are 6 million Slavs. which became its (expatriate) capital. The growth of Kazakhstan's heavy industry from the 1940s made it necessary to send more industrial workers there. 197 . and a belt of southern regions. Petropavlovsk. central Kazakh deserts developed by Russian settlers. only the latter of which can be called indigenous Kazakh. called the Virgin Lands. This probably constituted an attempt to promote "Soviet internationalism" as a means of political control and to speed up Kazakhstan's modernization. who constitute up to 40 percent of the country's population. In the 1950s and 60s.
but future conflicts can certainly not be ruled out. with cross-border involvement from Russia. That the Kazakh government sees the danger and is not prepared to tolerate secession is demonstrated by President Nazarbayev's decision to move the capital from Almaty to Astana. but even more important. situated in the middle of the "northern territories. cutting through as it does mainly Russian-populated areas.400 kilometer long Russian-Kazakh border. Rather. fails to become a genuinely Eurasian state. where the Cossack organizations may play a major role as agents provocateurs. These borders are neither properly delimited 198 ." This move was accompanied by the less spectacular. Moscow would be right to coordinate its regional policies with Astana and offer whatever assistance necessary. populated largely by ethnic Russians. where Kazakhs and Slavs are fully integrated. where Russian dominance is. There is no need (and no money in the foreseeable future) to fully "equip" the 7. Kazakhstan's own borders — whether with China or the Central Asian states — are of great importance for Russian security. being diluted. Intra-Central Asian Issues The borders between the five states that compose Central Asia are no less recent than the one between Russia and Kazakhstan. thus.Part Two. Russia's Three Facades From Russia's perspective. may wish to secede. So far. the northern provinces of Kazakhstan. migration of ethnic Kazakhs from the countryside to the urban areas. If Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the most important country in the region. this could lead to a civil war in Kazakhstan. In the worst-case scenario. economically. however. politically. and strategically. inter-ethnic relations have been generally calm.
but this remains a latent issue — as is the issue of Bukhara and Samarkand. Often they cut through areas populated by the same ethnic group. are in Uzbekistan. A more serious potential dispute is between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the latter's northern Khujand province. Nevertheless. Altogether. demarcated. As in the Caucasus. Samarkand and Bukhara. On the other hand. In the decade that followed. Uzbek military and security forces routinely cross the border in hot pursuit of Islamist opposition groups trying to seek refuge in the neighboring country. where Uzbek. where ethnic Uzbeks are a sizeable minority and the local Tajiks. many Uzbeks are known to have settled just across the border in Kyrgyzstan. it is reasonable to support the inviolability of the existing borders in order to avoid a re- 199 . one-quarter of the population of Tajikistan are Uzbeks. In both cases. A salient example of how tensions can arise from the gross mismatch between political and ethnic boundaries can be found in the Fergana Valley. There are also several Uzbek enclaves inside Kyrgyzstan. That this area may become a tinderbox was demonstrated in the inter-ethnic clashes at Osh in 1990. and do not yet share a national identity. Tashkent has resisted the temptation to take over the province. there are 58 small cases of border disputes between Tashkent and Bishkek. are in permanent opposition to the southern clans that now rule the country. ancient centers of Tajik culture.Chapter IV. for the most part. The Southern Tier nor. the inhabitants think and act along local and ethnic lines. who in the Soviet period formed the bulk of the governing elite of their republic. So far. the ancient centers of Tajik culture placed within Uzbekistan. Kyrgyz. and Tajik territories converge. and many ethnic Tajiks who live there are officially registered as Uzbeks.
and the continuation of the decade-long restraint cannot be taken for granted. regarded the Tajik-Afghan border as the first in a series of dominoes: should it be allowed to collapse. Many in Russia. supporting rebels across the border. Tajikistan became a test case for the credibility of the entire Russian policy in Central Asia. and Uzbekistan are all involved in the continuing instability on both sides of that border. however. It is the Tajik-Afghan border. however. much as their governments are concerned about the Taliban. that causes the most concern in Moscow. but political control over Tajikistan. including then Defense Minister Pavel Grachev in 1992 and then Security Council Secretary Alexander Lebed in 1996. Afghanistan. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Russia's Three Facades gion-wide conflagration. Its principal allies in Central Asia. continue to plot against each other. is entering a period of high political and social turbulence. and Russia's strategic borders would be pushed back to Astrakhan or even the middle reaches of the Volga. The leaders of all Central Asian states understand this and display solidarity on the border issue. The region. other Central Asian states would be "lost" either to the Islamists or the Taliban. Tajikistan. The issue here is not territorial disputes. even against its will.Part Two. Through its haphazard political and military involvement in the region. Russia may find itself implicated in the events on those ill-defined borders. In 1993. Tajikistan and Afghanistan Early on. Russia pledged to protect the Central Asian states' borders with non-CIS states. At that time. and especially its southern border. General Nikolayev made a famous gesture by saying that 200 .
Tehran. which had become Russia's "strategic cross. Actually. some argue. unless one considers the problem of drug trafficking. would constitute an "even greater blunder" than the Afghan fiasco. the border troops had equal reason to fear attack from the rear.26 Now it is Tajikistan that has been assigned the role of a buffer state. however. and Russian national interests will never require that it do so. In fact.28 For several years.Chapter IV."25 The Russians realized that the source of their problem was the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan compounded by the decision to withdraw support from the Najibulla regime in the spring of 1992: in both cases they eliminated their own protective buffer. Despite the 1997 peace agreement jointly brokered by Moscow. Fighting that problem. using other means. that was a true line of defense. and the United Nations. Russia will never have enough resources to control the area. a strip of land 15 to 20 kilometers deep. the Russians formed a "security zone" along the Afghan side of the border. Tajikistan continues to be a battleground for various regionally-based clans. which was subjected to artillery bombardment whenever the border guards received intelligence reports that the Tajik opposition "bandits" were getting ready to cross the border. In 1995-1996. Moscow has been used by the competing forces in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for their own interests. demands an entirely different strategy.27 Andrei Nikolayev later confessed that during his tenure at the Federal Border Service he had two constant major problems: finding money for his agency and defending the border in Tajikistan. Under these circumstances. controlling the border is meaningless. 201 . Withdrawing from there. The Southern Tier Russia would "never withdraw" its forces from the TajikAfghan border.
and are exported to Western Europe by way of the Baltic countries and East Central Europe. It is the realization that they share common interests that has pushed Tashkent and Moscow closer together. however. and everything else is simply a spin-off.31 Russian border guards in Tajikistan stem the flow of drugs. if they exist. the region's linchpin. The Russians.30 Russia itself has become a major drugs-consuming nation. it is felt. the ultimate destination of much of the drugs exports. the problem of managing an ethnic Uzbek/Tajik exodus from Afghanistan. should the Taliban overrun the last strongholds of the northern alliance. are too inefficient to deal with the problem.Part Two. remains as serious as ever. for an understanding of the role Russia plays in Tajikistan. and its officials are certainly not immune to corruption.35 202 . with all the attendant consequences for Russia. apparently lack credibility. Russia's resources are limited. and threatening Kazakhstan. their bureaucracies are too corrupt.32 Osh in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. are in Tajikistan to prop up a pro-Moscow government.34 Russian authorities have made constant appeals to the West. Most narcotics arrive from Afghanistan29 and South Asia via Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. but are unable to stop it altogether. These appeals. where in 1999 Russian border guards were replaced by locals allegedly under pressure from drug dealers.33 Central Asian states are too weak. and their border controls. Russia's Three Facades By the mid-1990s. Meanwhile. Russia became one of the world's major transit corridors of drug trafficking. Such an exodus has the potential of destabilizing Uzbekistan. is one of the major hubs of drug trafficking in all of Central Asia.
The Central Asians states are careful to court China. For the foreseeable future. confirming the existing borderline — with relatively minor adjustments — and agreed on a set of confidence-building measures and military force reductions in the border area. Kazakhstan. the parties reconstituted themselves as the Shanghai Five. although improbable in the medium-term. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a border treaty with China. In Kazakhstan." Currently. an institutionalized summitry arrangement.Chapter IV. Rather than disband after the signing of the treaty. In the longer term. Russia. Beijing demands cooperation from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan where the Uigur activists once tried to establish themselves. where Muslim Turkic-speaking Uigur separatists have been active. but they are vulnerable and generally weak. In 1996. The Southern Tier China — Central Asia For the moment. 203 . but many there are afraid that a stronger China will demand territorial concessions from them. however. it probably hopes to displace Moscow gradually as the dominant outside power in Central Asia. China's main concern in the area is the stability of Xinjiang. such an incursion into a neighboring country. The Central Asian governments have been cooperative. old territorial disputes between China and the USSR which led in 1969 and 1973 to armed incidents on the current Kazakh border have been settled. For Russia. China favors Russia's maintaining a presence and a measure of influence in the region. there are fears that China plans to annex the fertile and water-rich south-eastern region up to Lake Balkhash and the Irtysh River. The deterioration of the internal security situation in Central Asia in 1999 made the group coordinate its efforts to put down "international terrorism.
which is a latent problem among the Uigur minority in Xinjiang. and the development of economic links. Along its southern border. and present a major challenge to Russia. The situation is complicated by the existence of numerous Muslim enclaves inside Russia and the presence of millions of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan. as in the West. 204 . and in theory at least. including new communications along both East-West and North-South axes. by the continuing and even intensifying rivalry among Russia. it is precisely in this region that Russian-Western cooperation is most needed. * * * Russia's southern tier has become its most vulnerable region. Iran. the EU countries. Ironically. cultural and humanitarian dialogue across that divide is a must. Some of the distant neighbors. Turkey. Russia confronts weak states and unconsolidated societies that are generally at far less advanced stages of modernization. refuse to modernize altogether. America. however. most feasible. On the other hand. China and Russia will be united in their opposition to separatism. The prospects for positive dynamic change are diminished. and China for the control of and access to. is one of the few instruments available to encourage modernization and help resolve or manage the various conflicts. Russia's Three Facades would be an unfriendly act that would require some response. Thus. Caspian oil reserves.Part Two. such as Afghanistan. but rather a civilizational divide. The southern border is not one of potential integration.
Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii. about 200 armed attacks on the Russian forces were reported between 1996 and 1998." published by Izvestia in the Fall of 1997 Grigorii Kertman. NVO.000 Russian soldiers were killed and 18. Moscow: Arktogeya. 1997. "Neterpenie.343. Armenia and Georgia. The Russian forces. Politika Rossii na poroge tretyego tysyacheletiya.000 and 100. June 8. In Vneshnyaya politika i bezopasnost sovremennoy Rossii. p. 1997. ili tantsy s volkami. p. October 16. 2 3 4 There is also a much broader view of the importance of the Chechnya issue. a characteristic article by Sergei Markov.000 people. According to the historian Natalia Narochnitskaya.. Vladimir Degoyev (University of North Ossetia).7 7 8 9 10 The most senior person held in captivity was Vladimir Vlasov.7 Prof. 6 Lebed. #4. Osnovy geopolitiki. and of the eastern Christian world as a whole. mostly civilians.260 5 Almost 4.5 Alexander Dugin. 1998 According to Russian official figures. p. book 1. the Russian President's permanent envoy in Chechnya. the Chechens would "demilitarize" rather than disarm. 1998. Vol. were unable to prevail and suffered heavy losses. Aleksei Shcherbakov. "Gorny Altai na puti v XXI vek. its presence in the Black Sea region. it must be said. " Fond Obshchestvennoe Mnenie. From the Russian point of view. Overall. 2000.Chapter IV.1. Vremya-MN. who spent six months in 205 . p. "Piratskaya respublika Ichkeriya. were killed. the military balance in the Mediterranean.000 wounded. Regionalnye ugrozy globalnomu poryadku. The Southern Tier NOTES 1 Yuri Golubchikov. and international law was enshrined as the basis for the Moscow-Grozny relationship." NG-regiony. the future of Crimea. p. Nezavisimaya gazeta. #38. Cf. however. between 80. Cf. had first attempted a military solution by ordering the army to break the Nazran Agreement negotiated in June 1996. what is at stake is the result of a 200 year long geopolitical effort of Russia. Narochnitskaya. the Khasavyurt Accord was much worse than Nazran': all Russian troops had to leave.
September 18. 21 Felix Chuyev. op. Na perelome: zapiski russkogo generala. December 12-13. "Kak nam obustroit Rossiyu. did much to spread this idea. Cf.3 206 .7 19 Nezavisimaya gazeta. 1997. a U. p. p.2 17 Andrei Nikolayev. 1991. "Granitsa — eto lyudi. capital of Kazakhstan. 1998. December 26.Part Two. Financial Times. the notorious Chechen Commander. 1997 20 This is often referred to as the "Goble Plan". 13 Alexei Arbatov. al. Moscow: Sovetsky pisatel. p. the Russian police were faced with a dilemma: let him through and make a mockery of the law. a ne prosto cherta na karte.80 15 Elmar Guseinov. 1998. 1998. Bezopasnost: Rossiiskii vybor. "Pokushenie na Dagestan — ugroza bezopasnosti Rossii". October 24. Bezopasnost: Rossiyskii vybor. Alexei Arbatov. Kavkazskaya lavina. Moscow: 1999. #38. or arrest him and risk provoking a crisis in relations with Chechnya. 1998. Cf. October 9-15. Moscow: Terra.229 18 Colonel General Alexei Shcherbakov. 1990. Izvestia. Charlotta Gall. The most widely reported atrocity was the beheading of four Western communications specialists in 1998. Paul Goble. (Ocherk) Almaty. 12 In the words of Alexei Arbatov." NVO. p. #37 14 Alexei Arbatov.185 23 Now Astana. p. 1993. Chechens Weigh Choice Between East and West. K. p. cit.1 16 Cf. p. Kozybaev (editor in chief). granting Chechnya independence would have outweighed the benefits of the Khasavyurt Agreement. appeared in 1997 on the Chechen-Dagestani boundary. diplomat and broadcaster. 24 Alexander Solzhenitsyn. Russia's Three Facades captivity in 1998. Sto sorok besed s Molotovym.279 22 M. Istoria Kazakhstana s drevneishikh vremyon do nashikh dnei. p. December 26. et. p. Izvestia. It is reported that kidnappers received up to $20 million in ransom money in 1998. 1997." Literaturnaya gazeta.2 11 When Salman Raduyev.S. p.79. and November 15. NVO.
one-third of Russian students use drugs. however. p.2 28 Andrei Nikolayev.171 30 From 1992 through 1997.000 in Bishkek. against the USSR's best interests.000 in Western Europe. p. using military transport aircraft. which it decided to support. 207 . the Soviet leadership was genuinely surprised by the pro-Marxist coup in Kabul.163 31 According to the Russian Interior Ministry. and up to $15. Cf. January 28. p. $1. Cf. over three quarters of which were seized on the Tajik-Afghan border.000 and $10. 153 26 From the 1880s through 1917. Cf. p. 1997. " NVO. "Dyra na granitse. Na perelome. 33 Cf.500 in Osh (Fergana Valley). cit. p.4 tons of drugs. 1998. the FBS seized 6. worth $46 billion.. cit. In 1978. op.95. The Southern Tier 25 Andrei Nikolayev. cit. This. Na perelome. p. between $8. 27 Ilya Kedrov. Andrei Nikolayev. Andrei Nikolayev. Farther along the way. cit. the Soviet Union again rediscovered the utility of the Afghan buffer. 32 Russian border guard officers routinely complain that drug couriers from Afghanistan.2 34 There were persistent allegations that individual Russian border guards and other military officers were directly implicated in smuggling drugs up north. writing in NVO. Na perelome. Nikolai Plotnikov. 1998. Yury Razgulyayev.Chapter IV. whom they intercept and hand over to Tajik law-enforcement agencies. in the 1920s. op. #9. the prices rise dramatically: 1 kg of raw opium costs $100 in Khorog (Badakhshan). "Afganskii sindrom. op. up to $3.158 29 Afghanistan produces 70 tons of heroin annually.000 in Moscow. are then promptly released and return to their business. seems to be too high a proportion. 35 In September 1999. July 11.. at the start of the second Chechen war. Na perelome. op. security-conscious Vladimir Putin paid his first official visit abroad as Prime Minister to Uzbekistan. " Pravda. Afghanistan was a buffer between the Russian and British empires.
social structure and way of life were concerned. For nearly four centuries. followed by colonization by peasants and government resettlement policies. the Far East and Siberia were the most "Soviet" region of the country. and even improving. Russia's failure as a functioning state would have dramatic international implications.1 This was also the land of the Gulag. Ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union. both the imperial and Soviet governments exploited Siberia's fabulous resources. it is there and in Siberia that Russia's geopolitical destiny is likely to be tested. as far as its economy (defense industry and extraction of raw materials).2 T 208 .CHAPTER V The Far Eastern Backyard he Far East is unique among Russia's regions in that it experienced virtually no border changes in the 1990s. as it is called east of the Urals. and maybe even decided in the next century. the situation along Russia's borders in the region has been generally stable. In the 20th century. The pattern of development included the creation of military outposts and a fur trade. Yet. In the post-Soviet decade. or simply Russia. One reason for that is the state of the region itself. continued economic degradation and depopulation of the Far Eastern provinces and the severing of many contacts between them and the rest of Russia threatened to produce a situation in which that outlying territory would be progressively alienated from European Russia. treating it as a colony.
even if it were to occur. Japan is highly unlikely to drop its claim on the Kuril and Sakhalin islands. Within just one decade (the 1990s). and a territorial adjustment. may well be revisited. would be a long and painful process. there is still an unresolved territorial issue between Russian and Japan that continues to be the principal obstacle to a formal peace treaty and the general improvement of bilateral relations. altering the ethnic composition of the region's population.Chapter V. involving nearly all countries in the region. the border issue. thousands of miles away. Eventually. The Far Eastern Backyard In principle. Japan. Finally. where some states have disintegrated as a result of domestic implosion but where otherwise few classical territorial issues remain. it should be kept in mind that in contrast to Europe. Russia. East Asia counts many such disputes. toward the neighboring Asia-Pacific makes much sense. Chinese immigration into Russia will probably grow. the economic pull of China is likely to continue to affect the province. et al. Vietnam. The way this has happened. In these conditions. Korea. 209 . however. officially settled by Moscow and Beijing in 1991. this will translate into the rise of China's political influence not merely over. Even as links between the Russian Far East and European Russia grow more tenuous. but also inside. Next. the Philippines. including China. A major external factor is the rise of China. has produced economic dislocation and misery. the economic reorientation of the Far Eastern provinces away from European Russia. the balance of power between the two countries has dramatically shifted in China's favor.
As to supposedly foreign-inspired irredentism.7 210 . the governors of the nine regions making up the Russian Far East continued to compete among themselves for Moscow's subsidies. However. km of Buryatia's5. a republic whose indigenous population was closely related to the Mongols. however. and the loosening of its ties with European Russia have raised the specter of regional separatism. stimulated by the vague and somewhat ambiguous experience of the Far Eastern Republic that existed east of Lake Baikal from 1920 through 1922. the region's rapid depopulation. Both can generate concerns. a vast republic in eastern Siberia endowed with rich natural resources.Part Two.6 A far more complicated issue involved China. and the Yakutian authorities were satisfied with a highly favorable deal that the federal government offered them. The only real case of attempted separatism was Tuva. Even as they strove to create autonomous fiefdoms. its potential coned only be imagined in Buryatia.3 Another cause for immediate concern was Yakutia (Sakha). the regional authorities chose to become uncontrollable rather than independent. The Chinese contingency plans. km of Tuvinian territory and 120 sq. some Russians Auspect include "participation" in the governing of Primorye should it declare independence from Russia. these claims are not creating serious problems for now.300 sq. The specter of pan-Mongolism.4 Although Mongolia claims 2. historically seen in Russia as a vehicle for Japan's policy aimed at weakening both Russia and China. Russia's Three Facades The State of the Russian Far East The severe economic and social crisis in the Russian Far East. was very short-lived.
large-scale Russian arms and technology transfers. China and the USSR were deemed equal in terms of their GDP. that made the Russians fortify the 211 .10 the territorial issue forms "the core" of Russia's China problem. It was the rise of Japan. The large-scale Russian penetration of Manchuria in the late 19th century placed the border deep inside the Russian zone of influence. in 1999. who aspired to regional hegemony. the Russian leaders had to admit that China was leading Russia by a factor of five. Actually.8 A leading Moscow academic calls China "the most formidable geopolitical rival it has ever had on the Eurasian continent since the Tartar-Mongol invasion. in the course of which it moved significantly to accommodate Russia's expansion toward the Pacific. The Far Eastern Backyard The Sino-Russian Border Russia's current relations with China are marked by a radical improvement in political relations. has traditionally been among the most important strategic frontiers in the world. and the declining Chinese empire. which was about to lose its former predominance. Russia's principal Asian rival.Chapter V. The border between the two countries has existed for more than 300 years. but tributary territories with a non-Han population. 4. The two treaties of Aigun (1858) and Beijing (1860) which formed the original legal basis for the current boundaries between the two countries fixed the power balance between the rising empire of the tsars.259 km 11 long."9 To the scholars who live in the Russian Far East. the areas that Russia wrestled from China were never part of China proper. and at the same time — just beneath the surface — growing unease in Russia concerning the future of these relations. The border between Russia and China. In 1990.
12 The end of the Sino-Soviet cold war led to the conclusion in May 1991 of an agreement on the eastern section of the border. refused to give up its full control of the border rivers. however. Russia's Three Facades Chinese border for the first time. After that. The Japanese occupation of Manchuria in 1931 prompted the USSR to assume control over all the islands on the Amur and Ussuri rivers. long 212 . and later by other accords providing for the border area's partial demilitarization and a set of confidence building measures. The USSR.13 This was followed up in September 1994 by an agreement finalizing the western section." Diplomatically. effectively — and unilaterally — pushing the border to the Chinese bank. The border issue. came to a head as a consequence of their split. which rules that river boundaries follow the deep water channel. Mao Zedong and other Chinese leaders publicly denounced the 1858 and 1860 treaties as "unequal. China never officially made such claims. In the border talks that opened in 1964. Since Japan's defeat in World War II this move to strengthen the border has not been rescinded. Moscow decided to act in accordance with international law." and referred to about 1. Beijing only asked Moscow to consider some 20 relatively small territorial adjustments. It was over one of the small and insignificant border islands on the Ussuri in which Chinese and Soviet forces clashed in March 1969. a 21 km. This agreement was ratified by the Russian parliament in February 1992. ignored by Moscow and Beijing during their ten-year alliance in the 1950s.5 million square kilometers of Soviet territory as "annexed Chinese land. but rather demanded that Moscow recognize the existence of the territorial dispute. raising the prospect of a war between the two major powers on the Asian continent. which now saw the People's Republic as a potential adversary.Part Two.
These put constraints on the military activity of both sides in the vicinity of the border and introduced ceilings on the number of heavy weapons and personnel that the parties to the agreement could deploy in the 100 kilometer-wide zone along the border. were clearly eager to ride the wave of patriotic populism. The Sino-Russian accord on the border resulted from both sides' willingness to end their 30 year long confrontation and normalize and expand relations. The border agreement was complemented in 1996 and 1997 by two agreements on confidence-building measures and the mutual reduction of armed forces in the border area. Russia had to give more land. and leaving the territorial issue open in the future was not in their country's best interest. although not very much. and China strongly resists this. led by Primorye region's Yevgeny Nazdratenko.Chapter V. despite the steady expansion of political relations and strategic dialogue as well as Russian arms and technology sales to China. and Tajikistan. Many Russians living in the vicinity of 213 . and its government faced some criticism from the nationalist forces in the Duma and opposition from regional authorities. Russia insists that two strategically positioned islands in the vicinity of Khabarovsk and another one on the Argun river14 should be recognized as Russian.16 In 1991. Kyrgyzstan. The Far Eastern Backyard stretch of the common border remains disputed. Moscow's negotiators also realized that time was not necessarily working to Russia's advantage. Russia was still considered a superpower. Alongside with Russia and China. Some governors.15 Interestingly. Beijing is standing firm on this sticky issue. and the fear of the threat from the North was still widespread among China's leaders. the agreements were signed by Kazakhstan.
214 . The question that more insightful Russians ask is whether the delimitation/demarcation agreement fixing the current borderline amounts to a full-fledged border treaty?17 The concern is that the border agreements will simply freeze the situation until China feels strong enough to present its full demands to Russia. and most of Russia's infrastructure east of Lake Baikal. unlike Hong Kong.5 million square kilometers. and is focusing more and more on the Taiwan issue — all under the rubric of doing away with the vestiges of European imperialist domination — raises for some Russians the question of when. which would include Vladivostok. There is virtually nothing there that would remind one of China. The specter of border claims amounting to the 1. and little property owned by the Chinese — all traditional points of concern to the local Russians. For the moment. which reabsorbed Hong Kong in 1997 and Macau in 1999.Part Two. which would give it access to the Sea of Japan — despite the well-known shallowness of the river and the fact that the final 17 kilometer long stretch of the river is jointly controlled by Russia and North Korea. It was also alleged that thanks to Russian concessions China would be able to build a deep-water port or even a naval base on the Tuman River. the Chinese presence in the area is slowly but steadily growing. a tiny number of mixed marriages. Of course. Macau. however. there are few permanent settlers. not whether the Russian Far East will have its turn.18 The slow but steady march of China. Russia's Three Facades the border were understandably unhappy about the government's ceding land that they had used for generations for various agricultural needs. Khabarovsk. More importantly. has not disappeared entirely.19 Yet. or Taiwan the Russian Far East is overwhelmingly Russian in ethnic terms.
000 and increasing. In his first state of the nation report to both houses of parliament. the Chinese may make their weight felt not so much politically or militarily. Had it not been for the influx of migrants from the new independent states. The Far Eastern Backyard the Chinese are more competitive. ranks 6th or 7th. accounting for 8 percent of the world's total. Russia is one of the least densely populated countries in the world (9 people per 1 square kilometer as compared with 337 in Japan. with Pakistan.20 The Russian Statistics Committee has projected continuing population decline. In the future. Moreover. In 1897. It can be compared to Japan (125 million). after China and India.2 million people. President Putin quoted data which indicate that Russia's net annual loss of population was 750. but increasingly by economic means. a seventh of its current population. its population is declining. the decrease would have been much sharper. the population of the Russian empire stood at 129 million. the Russian Federation. 118 in China and 215 . Between 1992 and 1997. and — in the European part of the country — to Germany (81 million). Some forecasts even predict that Russia's population will be halved in the course of the 21st century. and that by 2015 it will have lost 22 million people. with 145 million. it dropped from 148 million to just over 145 million. to 138 million by 2015. The local Russians are becoming increasingly defensive.Chapter V. whether in commerce or in agricultural production.21 The decline of the ethnic Russian population is greater than the population decrease as a whole. They have vastly larger financial resources. Russia's population dropped by 4.5 percent of the global figure. Today. In the last decade of the 20th century. 230 in Germany. The USSR was the third most populous country in the world. or 2.
Moscow: Carnegie Center. Consider the following table: Russian Far East (southern regions) Population. but there are unsubstantiated rumors that suggest they number in the millions. million Population density. or Irkutsk appears more real to many Russians. Population growth. the specter of a Chinese Khabarovsk. sotsialno-ekonomicheskie i geopoliticheskie faktory kitayskoi migratsii na rossiyskii Dalnii Vostok. Russian Harbin (the chief city of Manchuria. "Geograficheskie.Part Two.8 40 8% 12/15 North-East China 104 132 1.23 There are suspicions that the penetration into Russia by the Chinese is part of Beijing's grand design to alter the ethnic situation in the Russian Far East and turn it into an appendage of China. If anything. Nowhere is this depopulation felt more acutely than in the Russian Far East. 000 Regional GDP growth Industrial/agricultural growth 5. Russia's Three Facades 27 in the United States).per sq.37 China's economic and demographic expansion is feared by both the local authorities and national border guard services." In: Perspektivy Dalnevostochnogo regiona: kitayskii faktor. km. p. Vladivostok. 1999.22 There are no reliable figures about the number of Chinese already in Russia. founded by the Russians as recently as 100 years ago) and the Russian community in Shanghai (which was the largest foreign group in China's biggest city in the 1920s and 1930s) are all but forgotten.000 13% 14/8 Source: Petr Baklanov.0 3. or even annex it altogether.24 Mean- 216 .
in the 1930s). and from North Korea. In January 2000. Chinese communities have emerged in a number of Russian cities. There are 217 . Russia stopped issuing long-term contracts to Koreans. Within China. which in 1991—1992 assured the physical survival of Russian Far Easterners. if not more.Chapter V. and many use Russia only as a temporary way station en route to Europe. Many Russians still fear them as much.25 Some Russian experts predict that by the mid-21st century the Chinese will become the second largest ethnic group in Russia. The Far Eastern Backyard while the reality is different: most Chinese come to Russia in search of economic opportunities.000 hectares of land that is currently lying waste in Primorye to Korean rice farmers. To the extent that Russia's domestic situation will ameliorate. the number of unemployed and partially employed people exceeds by far the whole population of Russia. the number of Chinese in Russia has increased at least 20 fold. North Korean lumberjacks have long worked in secluded camps in the Primorye region. albeit from a very low base of 11. after the Russians themselves. both from the former USSR (hundreds of thousands of them were resettled in Central Asia. In 1992.000 in 1989. than the Chinese. Russia and South Korea signed an agreement leasing 7. the number of Chinese immigrants will grow.26 Chinese food imports. The influx of cheap Chinese consumer goods has helped stabilize the social situation in the region. mainly in Uzbekistan. In one decade.27 and for the same reason: they suspect that a massive influx of immigrants will be followed by the demand for autonomy and end in the annexation of the region by a future united and powerful Korea. One obvious alternative could be the Koreans. remain highly competitive vis-a-vis Russian agricultural produce.
Russia's Three Facades suggestions that the two Koreas are quietly competing with China for access to the Russian Far East. Russia will have to look to Asian — mainly Korean and Chinese — labor. Isolation and strengthening the immigration regime are not good solutions. Pyotr Stolypin introduced and executed a large-scale program which encouraged voluntary resettlement of Russian and Ukrainian peasants) is impossible because of the population shortage in European Russia and lack of incentives to move to the Amur and the Pacific. the Russian authorities are urged to play the Koreans off against the Chinese. Russia will need more not fewer immigrants. 218 . This would follow both the pattern of post-World War II migration of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe and the practice of colonial withdrawal (for example.Part Two.). Domestic political implications aside. Asian migration into Russia is a very serious challenge. A totally new way of thinking is required to come to grips with it. and in July President Putin made the first-ever visit by a Russian head of state to North Korea. there are real civilizational problems that make the Russians and the Chinese poorly equipped at this point for close interaction. of the French from Algeria and the Portuguese from Angola and Mozambique. A new policy a la Stolypin. in order to hold its own in the Far East. One obvious alternative to Chinese migration could be immigration of ethnic Russians from the CIS and the Baltic States.28 The year 2000 witnessed a turning point in Moscow's relations with Pyongyang. etc. This remedy resembles a double-edged sword. The border is long and porous. In this context. (an Interior Minister and Premier under Nicholas II. The hopes of attracting Russians from ex-Soviet republics are fading. More important. and corruption is endemic. A new treaty was signed in February.
Russia will need to adopt criteria for admission. develop hiring criteria.. What should be avoided by all means 219 . Canadian. Russia will need to adopt a set of forward-looking and courageous policies that would be a clear break with the past. and welcome. These policies should be designed to identify Russia's need for labor. assuring their loyalty to the host country.S. Indians. establish a resident alien status. in which naturalized aliens are accepted as "Russians" with citizenship defined in non-ethnic terms. They should reach out to the Vietnamese. It could come closer to the Russian imperial and current French model. and others in Asia-Pacific if they want to ensure that Asiatization of the Russian Far East does not turn into Sinicization. accommodate and naturalize Asian aliens. The Far Eastern Backyard The Chinese assimilate very slowly and incompletely. Russia will also need to think through the issue of political participation. The result of controlled cross-border migration would be neither an American-style melting pot nor a salad of multiculturalism. Only very few Chinese would wish to live in Russia permanently. and Australian experience in this field. The cultural divide between them and the Russians is very deep. The experience of interaction at the grassroots level is at best mixed. It will need to work hard to ensure that newly arrived residents are included in society. institute naturalization procedures. The Russians would be right to avoid overrepresentation of any single ethnic group of migrants. and develop programs of teaching foreigners Russian culture and language. etc.Chapter V. Neither side (especially on the part of the Russians) aspires to a more intimate relationship. Russian officials could benefit from a close study of U.
If by that time the issue of the three islands is not settled. Japan officially 220 . is not solved. this may give the Chinese a good chance to argue that the entire territorial settlement must be revised.29 Thus. It takes only 4 to 5 million migrants to alter the existing ethnic balance on the territory stretching from Lake Baikal to the Bering Strait. Shikotan. the centuries-old trend has been reversed. China is now the more powerful and dynamic of the two.30 which it lost in 1945 as a result of the war. it could become one of the most important geopolitical issues of the 21st century. and the Habomai islets. Southern Kurils or Northern Territories? The disputed territory between Russia and Japan is relatively small — some 4.and especially longer-term. but the economic zone around the four islands is rather extensive. if China were to enter a major political and economic crisis.500 square kilometers. Russia's Three Facades is a revival of the Soviet model of territorial autonomy for ethnic groups and dual citizenship leading to split loyalties. the Russian-Chinese border problem. A strong China poses great challenges for Russia." This promises more rather than less tension between the two countries in the medium.Part Two. as elsewhere in Eurasia. Here. about 196. however. settled for the time being.000 square kilometers. The Russian-Chinese border can be compared to a thin membrane between two areas of very different "demographic pressure. Tokyo claims as its own the southernmost islands in the chain — Iturup (Etorofu). the implications for the Russian Far East could be catastrophic. Kunashir (Kunashiri). and the balance between East Asia's two largest continental countries has been decisively altered. When it reappears.
more generally. Yeltsin pledged to work to resolve the territorial issue on the basis of legality and fairness. Since then. Unfortunately for Moscow. little progress has been made. Boris Yeltsin. who succeeded him. The ill-advised surprise decision made by Pres- 221 . the island issue has since become an article of faith for Russian national patriots who vehemently oppose a "sellout" to Tokyo. Since 1992. could have rid the bilateral relationship of the burden of the territorial problem.33 In the 1993 Tokyo declaration. the full normalization of their relations. had little time to accomplish the feat. made in the 1956 Moscow Declaration.Chapter V. Numerous plans have been suggested for solving the territorial issue. he withdrew the Soviet promise. which implies an eventual change of the status quo.31 but no breakthrough was achieved in the decade following the end of the Cold War and the dismantlement of the USSR.S. President Mikhail Gorbachev was the last leader who. thus creating added confusion. considered several options. all of which were highly theoretical. and Gorbachev. The best moment for that was lost by Khrushchev in 1960 when in protest against the renewal of the U. which it renounced under the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty. The Far Eastern Backyard maintains that what it calls the Northern Territories are not part of the Kuril islands. Stalin decided to abstain from signing the San Francisco document. The issue has been frozen for decades.32 Later the Soviet leaders believed their country to be too strong even to admit the existence of a territorial dispute. and has prevented the conclusion of a peace treaty between the two countries and. virtually single-handedly.-Japan Security Treaty. whom the Japanese had regarded with skepticism far too long. to hand over two of the four islands. but his window of opportunity was too narrow.
The islands have even been elevated to the role of a strategic outpost. and the Russian public is generally reluctant to give up the Southern Kurils. is ready yet for compromise. Any peace treaty would require a resolution of the territorial issue. considered safe for a ballistic submarine bastion — despite a short Japanese coastline. Russia's stated interests are largely of a geopolitical nature. this action would also bring into question the legality of other territorial arrangements made by the World War II victors. predictably. Giving up the islands would be the first case of actually ceding Russian territory — i. These arguments are less than compelling.35 Geostrategically. By extension. The like- 222 . virtually making it a Russian lake. it is feared. to start with. was not implemented. including above all the status of Kaliningrad. which involves compromises. Russia is phasing out its SSBN force in the Far East. The Japanese public overwhelmingly supports the return of the Northern Territories. it is claimed. There is no direct link between the two issues.e. Neither side. Doing so. territory lying within the borders of the former Soviet Russian republic — to a foreign power. would undermine Russia's entire posture in the region. and it is simply impossible to imagine that Germany would make official claims on Kaliningrad if Russia were to concede the disputed islands to Japan. and this is the argument stressed by the defense establishment and the security community as a whole. would undermine the very legal foundation of Germany's current position in Europe." Ceding this key. the four islands close the bottleneck of the Sea of Okhotsk. a "key to the North Pacific. however.34 This argument is farfetched. Russia's Three Facades ident Yeltsin and Prime Minister Hashimoto at Krasnoyarsk in November 1997 to complete the peace treaty by 2000.Part Two.
the spirit of the two wars. There can be no comparison with the Soviet acceptance of the reunification of Germany — for in that case no nonGerman territory was affected — or with the troop withdrawal from the Central European states. The legacy of the Soviet-German war has not been erased. Russian ownership of the islands has genuinely become an article of faith for both the elite and many ordinary Russians. or even the recognition of the independence of the former Soviet republics. lives on. and would be unable itself to defend them. when the Soviet Union occupied Eastern Germany and then created a loyal communist state out of it. of course. Russia would not be able to use the islands to invade Hokkaido. 223 . including the former Eastern Prussia. Ironically. The second one is regarded as the redemption for the ignominious defeat in the first war. but the past has ceased to be an obstacle to bilateral relations. and that any further unilateral concessions to other countries would be unacceptable. The Far Eastern Backyard lihood of an armed conflict with the United States and Japan is extremely low. From the mid-1990s on there was also a feeling that Russia's global retreat was over. There is no generosity and little sympathy toward the Japanese. not Crimea. Kaliningrad. In the hypothetical case of such a conflict. The Russians also treat the Japanese differently from the Germans. the Russians over a half century have come to know the Germans well and gradually learned to trust them. Germany. More important are the psychological reasons.Chapter V. Since World War II. In its relations with Japan. is the closest analogy to the Southern Kurils. even though in 1941 Germany was the attacker. has abjured all claims to the territory that belonged to the Reich in 1937. the Russians could be generous to the Germans. 1904-1905 and 1945.
which would require a Russian recognition of Japanese sovereignty over the four islands. There is too little domestic pressure on both countries' governments to act on the basis of some compromise. popularly believed to be the price Japan will pay for the islands. was not acceptable to Japan. It is also difficult for them to see the benefits of the win-win situations. and the public had high expectations from a radical improvement of relations with the West: democratization. but would postpone their actual return to Japanese rule. Nations that suddenly have grown weak can't be generous. Thus. as evidenced by later problems with the implementation of the 1991 accord. It is also important to understand the difference between the Kuril question and the territorial adjustments along the Sino-Russian border. joining the community of civilized nations. would probably not be forthcoming for clear economic reasons.36 At the end of 1998. and Russia too weak. The May 1991 agreement between Moscow and Beijing was negotiated in a different era when the Russian public and the various interest groups within it had no means of actually influencing government policies. A concession on Russia's part would not automatically bring it benefits. The tables have been turned since the late 1950s: Japan is now too strong. Investments. etc. improvement of living conditions. the popular and elite sentiment in Russia is substantially different. The process of democratization has changed that. A decade later. Russia's Three Facades although it was the USSR that attacked them in 1945.Part Two. 224 . In its turn. the political elite of the USSR still perceived itself as being strong and powerful. Russia rejected a Hong Kong-type solution offered by Japan. In 1989. the Russian proposal of joint economic use of the islands. while shelving the sovereignty issue. for a solution.
S. The Far Eastern Backyard the political will for a workable solution is. 225 . This happier Russia would be less guided by traditional territorial geopolitics and. A change in the Russian and Japanese domestic environments will be the crucial factor. a possible Korean reunification.Chapter V. the basis for a compromise can emerge. the issue can also be rephrased. For Russia to give. is profiting from the current impasse. whereas a stronger and more coherent one may consider a trade-off. Neither side. thus creating the basis for a longawaited economic boom in the Far East and making it at least marginally attractive to Japanese investors. lacking. albeit in the distant future. they must be pressured by their publics and major vested interests. Instead of solving a territorial dispute. Eventually. of partial U. the two countries could agree on the delimitation of an internationally recognized border between them. most important. A weak and disorganized Russia will not back down. disengagement from the region. Some compelling external reasons for compromise include the continuing rise of China. however.37 For the governments to instruct their diplomats to move toward a solution.38 In order to win back some self-confidence. Russians should introduce more legality and transparency into economic and social systems. would be able to absorb whatever economic benefits that would accompany a political settlement. For domestic political as well as constitutional reasons. it must win back a measure of self-confidence. Russia even balks at reiterating the Soviet Union's 1956 offer of transferring two smaller islands. at present. A combination of domestic factors and the changing international environment could produce the incentives that are currently lacking for both sides to move forward. however unlikely at the moment. or the prospect.
As to the Japanese. downplaying in the Russian case the sovereignty issue and concentrating instead on the advantages of interaction.. In Japan's case. even the Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin considered that "it is not territory that is sacred and inviolable. a new "Germany of the east."40 This latter territory is the Russian Far East and Siberia. for Russia voluntarily ceded Alaska and nobody saw that as shameful. it will finally signal the end of a century of conflict and confrontation in Russo-Japanese relations. with respect to Russia. this means actually taking a long view and assuming responsibilities that would allow it to become.. democratic. Russia's Three Facades It is possible to imagine the Russian Federation giving Japan the islands the Soviet Union promised in 1956 as the territorial settlement under a peace treaty and agreeing to negotiate the status of the two bigger islands. but the territory which is necessary for the flowering of Russian national spiritual culture. Iturup and Kunashir." If this happens. they increasingly recognize that their overriding interest in the north is a friendly. which also offers certain economic opportunities and provides some political reassurance. Tokyo could become progressively more willing to settle for less than its long-standing claim. etc. trade.Part Two. After all.39 The Russians would be more willing to countenance the loss of territory in return for a finite border settlement (which would also give them a legal title to Southern Sakhalin) and the wider opportunities for investment. Thus. technology transfers. With both Japan and Russia becoming more pragmatic it may be possible to act incrementally. 226 . and stable Russia.
When the republic was first established in 1923.Chapter V.. Japan.267. This is an inversion of Russia's historical task: instead of outward expansion. p. In the 1930s. not an Asian country. no longer possible or sensible. p. and the United States. This state.44. "Problemy gosudarstvennykh granits Rossii na postsovetskom postranstve. was a creation of Moscow's Bolsheviks. 2000. Strategiya dlya Rossii: Povestka dnya dlya Prezidenta2000. When this geopolitical buffer outlived its usefulness. who used its nominal sovereignty to avoid a direct clash with Japan. in order to reflect more accu- 2 3 4 227 . Moscow: Vagrius. Even as the Russians stress their European vocation. #12. D. "A World Without Russia" A paper presented at the Jamestown Foundation Conference. South Korea. The Far Eastern Backyard * * * Russia is a European. it was abolished and fully absorbed into Soviet Russia.C. The renaming came in 1958. Washington. Sergei Baburin. 1999. officially. Thomas Graham believes it would "give China unimpeded access to the riches of that region or spark a destabilizing contest for them among China. December 8. See also Russian translation of this piece in Nezavisimaya gazeta. ed." See Thomas Graham. it was named Buryat-Mongolia. June 9. 1999. NOTES 1 Sergei Karaganov. 1998." Vlast. which briefly existed in the final stages of Russia's Civil War. the country needs to concentrate on the development of the largest piece of real estate in the world. It is precisely this eastern dimension that makes it Russia rather than Muscovy. but for the last four hundred years it has also been a country in Asia. they must redouble their efforts to develop the three-quarters of their territory lying east of the Urals while ultimately resolving the outstanding border issues with its powerful and increasingly important neighbors. Cf. the Buryat intelligentsia and Buddhist religion were subjected to large-scale repression.
Stable for Now. as it was known) was flanked by Buryat-Mongolia in the north and the Chinese autonomous district of Inner Mongolia in the southeast. "Border Problems Between Russia and Its Neighbors. 1999. and its independence was for the first time universally confirmed. Vol. a Soviet ally. #4.134.Bogaturov. "Pluralisticheskaya mnogopolyarnost i interesy Rossii. p. February 1. and Koji Watanabe (Eds. London: M. The two sections are separated by the territory of Mongolia. Russia's Three Facades rately the ethnicity of the title group. In the end. Georgy F.4.Part Two. in 1956. 1999. 1998. p. 2000. Mongolia was admitted into the United Nations. V. N.6." Svobodnaya mysl. e. Characteristically.. However. 12 Previous Sino-Russian border conflicts include the siege of the Russian fort of Albazin by the Chinese troops in 1689. Quoted from: Vneshnyaya politika i bezopasnost sovremennoi Rossii. As relations between the USSR and China were becoming increasingly strained. p. in 1929. Vladivostok. Mikhail G.) Russia and East Asia. 2000. Larin. A Reader. "Professor iz Tokio reanimiruyet idei panmongolizma. Moscow: Moscow Science Foundation. and the western one just 55 km.6. book 1. Alexei D. East-West Institute. 5 Cf." In: Gilbert Rozman. "Rossiya na rubezhe tysyacheletii. p. An invective against this attempt to undermine the territorial integrity of Russia and China can be found in: Sergei Berezin. Cf." Nezavisimaya gazeta. Nosov. Sharpe.92.25-36.1. "I kolonisty mogut byt soyuznikami. Mongolia proper (or Outer Mongolia. Moscow sought to fend off potential Chinese designs on its ally by dropping its own hypothetical claims to Outer Mongolia.g. Alexei Chichkin. Kitai i Dalnii Vostok Rossii. Chinese troops 228 . p. Vladimir Putin. but Stubborn in the Long Run.Y. Armonk.204 km long. 1996.E. 1999. 11 Of which the eastern section is 4. p. p. this Soviet policy paid off: in 1961. a more probable reason was to shore up diplomatically the Mongolian People's Republic. Kunadze. At the time. 6 7 8 9 10 See. #2. with a change of name and a loss of status. where the KareloFinnish constituent republic was converted into the Karelian Autonomous Republic. December 30.4." NG-Regiony." Nezavisimaya gazeta. The 21st Century Security Environment. this was closely preceded by a similar move in the Soviet northwest.
15 In the future. the inhabitants were mainly Chinese. 21 Annual Message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. 2000 229 .7. Vishnevsky.189. see: Rossiisko-Kitaiskaya granitsa: dokumenty. 20 Naselenie Rossii 1998. 1997. Vladivostok. the southern arm of the Amur River where the actual borderline passes. In response. extending China's strategic boundary almost to Astrakhan and Volgograd.167.. and Bolshoi. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. Zbigniew Brzezinski. e." (Henry Kissinger. Years of Renewal. "In the past. Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow: Institute of Economic Forecasts.870). writing in Nezavisimaya gazeta. p. p.287). which will give added weight to the Chinese demand that the border be fixed further to the north. respectively. a border city. p. 16 Cf. who during his short trip to Vladivostok in November 1974 had been struck that "physically it resembled a central European city plunked down at the edge of Asia. In 1938 and 1939. Kitai i Dalnii Vostok Rossii. Edited by A. 17 Vladimir Larin. Moscow: NG Publishers. p. Chou tersely reminded him. the center of the entire Russian Far East. July 8. New York: Basic Books.. the Soviet Union invaded Manchuria and defeated the Japanese Kwantung army deployed there. January 31. argumenty. Sixth annual demographic report. 1999. making Khabarovsk.G. In 1945. Cf. 1998.Chapter V. becomes shallower and can cease to exist. this unresolved problem may become exacerbated as the Kazakevicheva channel. 1997. on Lake Khasan (Primorye) and on Khalkhin Gol River (Mongolia). mentioned in his conversation with Chou Enlai a few days later that Vladivostok had always been Russian. Ambassador Genrikh Kireyev. 1997 14 Bolshoi Ussuriiskii and Tarabarov.g. p.. there were two small border wars between the USSR and Japan in the area. 13 For a good collection of different Russian attitudes toward this agreement." (Ibid. fakty. The Far Eastern Backyard clashed in Manchuria with the Soviet forces protecting the Russian-owned China Eastern railway. 19 Henry Kissinger. 18 Zbigniew Brzezinski's geopolitical vision of a Greater China as a global power also includes the whole of Central Asia minus Turkmenistan.
Moscow: Carnegie Center. 2000. #4. Mongolia. "Russkii vopros. "Gorny Altai na puti v XXI vek." Migratsia. February 1.000 Koreans to the Far East and projections of the Chinese diaspora exceeding 3 million by 2002-2003. there were 11." Cf. 2000. and China. 24 The fear is not unique to the Far East: in Gorny Altai. p. Most authors put the number of Chinese in Russia between a few hundred thousand and 2 to 2. Vladivostoke i Ussuriiske (rezultaty anketnykh oprosov).4. (Cf. the farmers will come from both South and North Korea and Uzbekistan.6. Moscow: 1999. 1999.281. or FBS). spoke with apprehension about plans to resettle 100. Alexei Arbatov. Kevin O'Flynn." In: Perspektivy dalnevostochnogo regiona: kitayskii faktor. "Chinese Migration Alarms Border Patrol. 28 Interestingly." The Moscow Times. p. 1998. "Avtoritet gosudarstvennoy granitsy.000 Chinese in the USSR. p.9. more than 1 million Chinese entered Russia illegally. Cf. and hence Russia. "I Kolonisty mogut byt soyuznikami. Cf. July 1." Krasnaya zvezda. "Predvaritelnye itogi izucheniya problem kitayskoi migratsii v Moskve. which borders on Kazakhstan. 1998. "Obshchechelovecheskie tsennosti i sobstvennye interesy. Russia's Three Facades 22 Cf." Cf. Boris Gromov.8.5 million. Some unsubstantiated reports refer to 5 million. with- 230 . Cf. p. 2. 1996.Part Two. Colonel General Konstantin Totsky (director of the Federal Border Service. 25 In 1989. 29 Alexei Arbatov calls China "the only power in the world that can pose a long-term direct military threat to Russia's security.1." Nezavisimaya gazeta." Nezavisimaya gazeta. Sergei Golubchikov." NG-regiony. #1. and call this "demographic expansion. 27 Colonel General Boris Gromov. Bezopasnost Rossii. there are apprehensions that building a road linking Xinjiang to the Trans-Siberian railway and a parallel gas pipeline would stimulate massive Chinese migration to the region. 30 Stalin's blunder of refusing to participate in the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty with Japan has also left the Soviet Union. p. Alexei Chichkin. 26 Zhanna Zaionchkovskaya. 23 A senior official of the Federal Border Guard Service claimed that from January 1999 through June 2000. p. former Duma member and now Governor of the Moscow region.3). December 15. p. October 2. 2000. Vilya Gelbras.
has no claims. held in 1994. Strengthening the Democratic Institutions Project. "Novyi sezon dlya Rossii i Yaponii. p. John Foster Dulles is known to have strongly resisted this. Russia's humiliation in 1904-1905 was lifted by its victory over Japan in 1945. 1998. Hiroshi Kimura.Kunadze. and Konstantin Sarkisov listed no fewer than 66 ways of solving the problem. Alexander Solzhenitsyn." Cf. 231 ." In his view. See: Beyond the Cold War to the Trilateral Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region. whether the United States would have allowed a normalization of the Japanese-Soviet relationship. the 2000 Russian Foreign Policy Concept refers to the "search for a mutually acceptable solution to the fixation of an internationally recognized border between the two countries. p. 32 It is a moot question. Put' k ochevidnosti. The issue was also tackled at the three Portsmouth seminars (also trilateral). (Russia in the Abyss). 38 Interestingly." Nezavisimaya gazeta. and 2000. p. 1998. The Far Eastern Backyard out a formal title to Southern Sakhalin and the Northern Kuril islands.219. The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. Mass.g. in any case.145. however. 1998.287-300. 35 Lithuanian border claims to the region or Finland's to part of Karelia and Pechenga are likewise unlikely to be raised officially. Section IV. p. 31 A unique trilateral study prepared by Graham Allison. Cambridge."Border Problems Between Russia and its Neighbors". January 22. 39 Cf. "Kuril'skoye 'lezvie' rossiisko-yaponskikh otnoshenii.3. would be far less serious.Chapter V. 40 Ivan Ilyin. Bezopasnost'. Nezavisimaya gazeta.. Georgy F. Moscow: Russky put. November 28. e. 1995. 33 Alexander Solzhenitsyn was one of the few figures who was courageous enough to call this campaign "pseudo-patriotic. to which Japan. 1998. 37 For an excellent analysis of the Kuril issue and discussion of the options for the future.: 1992. and if they were. Dmitry Gornostayev.." (A New Season for Russia and Japan). 36 Alexei Arbatov. Rossiya v obvale. see: Alexei Arbatov.45-46. 34 Cf. Moscow: Exmo-Press. p.
Part Three INTEGRATION .
have been incompatible with federalism. the leading Soviet dissident. and included the Soviet agreement to the reunification of Germany. was conceptualizing the worldwide convergence of communism and capitalism. the Soviet Union. While the liberal Communist Gorbachev was trying to reconfigure the Soviet Union along confederal lines and to fit it into a more co-operative global arrangement (by means of a "common European house" and a "Vancouver to Vladivostok" security system). It did away with the Cold War in Moscow's relations with the West and China. not to mention totalitarian ones. Gorbachev's perestroika logically undermined both notions.The problems of domestic territorial organization of Russia and its integration into the wider world are intimately linked with the nature of the Russian political regime and the policies of the Russian government. which necessitated the Soviet military and political withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe and Afghanistan. By the same token. a federation in name. Thus. It also made Soviet borders porous from the inside. and set in motion the process of creating a better union. The country's authoritarian regimes. the USSR had to carry out policies of economic autarky and foreign policy isolationism. relaxing the movement of people and ideas across them. Andrei Sakharov. and proposed in his famous "Constitution" the remaking of the USSR as a "Union of Soviet Republics of Europe and Asia. quickly turned into a de facto unitary state." with 40 235 . It raised the issue of the nature of the Soviet federation.
while allowing the regions to turn into feudal fiefs. Soon. contains a few major chinks that could be his undoing. it sought refuge in multipolarity only to realize that Russia was far too small a pole to benefit from that game. Putin's recentralization agenda was first reflected in his drive to reduce the powers of regional leaders. In Russia's relations with the Newly Independent States. Integration is on the back burner. could not have been implemented. the prospects for economic modernization. it made a mess of the CIS and constructed a strange semidetached "union state" of Russia and Belarus. and should Russian "counter-terrorists" become bogged down on the borders of Afghanistan and the Central Asian states in the area. Both were idealists whose ideas. Finally. Under Yeltsin. should the guerilla war in Chechnya continue indefinitely. and democratization in Russia will be very bleak. 236 . it mishandled NATO enlargement and the Balkan conflicts. dissolving the Soviet Union and letting all the republics go unconditionally. Putin's widely publicized pragmatic approach to the regions. the formation of a civil society. including by means of the newly created federal districts. Putin gave the military carte blanche on Chechnya. and practicing laissez-faire in Moscow's relations with the Russian regions. Integration to 50 members. Should the recentralization effort seek to eliminate the regions as important power centers within Russia.Part Three. it became more and more chaotic and occasionally defensive. Russia fought two wars in Chechnya. whatever their merits. which produced a permanent strain on Russian-Western relations. The Yeltsin regime started as ultra-liberal. specific security issues ("fighting international terrorism") and economic problems (such as Ukrainian gas payments) have come to the fore. opening up to the West and aspiring to full integration with it. however. however.
Two implications follow from that. The Nation- 237 . Logically. Thus. were rather rare in the history of the Russian Empire. This chapter discusses the potential for regional separatism and territorial conflicts inside Russia. the Russian Empire developed as a continuous area. when the Soviet Communist regime disintegrated. territorial centralization and the absence of autonomous power centers at regional or municipal levels were one of the key pillars of the authoritarian and totalitarian political regimes in Russia. Democratic devolution is proving exceedingly difficult.1 Protectorates. the territorial organization of Russian power is intimately linked both with the Russian national identity and the nature of Russia's political regime. The geographic contiguity and the policy of assimilation that followed annexation were chiefly responsible for that. as in the British and French empires. On the one hand. Newly acquired territories were initially given special status. with the exception of the Grand Duchy of Finland and the Kingdom of Poland. which later was progressively diluted and in most cases (Finland being the only exception) was formally abolished long before 1917. retaining formal sovereignty.2 On the other hand. Russia became caught between separatist and recentralization tendencies.CHAPTER VI Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question H istorically. there was no clear and permanent division between the metropolitan area and the colonies.
This chapter will not discuss the problems of Russian 238 .3 Separatism — as vividly shown in Chechnya — is a clear and present danger. especially given that such a unitary state is not adequately suited to dealing with Russia's internal and external environment.Part Three. At the regional and federal levels. Such an outcome. Soviet-era unitarism was succeeded by Yeltsin's laissez-faire regionalism — actually. The federal government has. at best. and chauvinism" among the principal factors undermining the common economic.4 This "federal reform. ethnocentrism. but the poor governance of a country stretching across 11 time zones and composed of 89 regions is in the long run an even more serious one. but probably no landslides. However. is frankly aimed at recentralization. only modest means of mobilizing the regions. It names "ethno-egoism. political. it will need to finally live up to its official title of a federation. and cultural space of the Federation. There can be shifts in the balance of power either toward or away from the regions. one thing is clear: the territorial organization of the Russian state will both reflect and shape the country's political regime. however. each responsible for a federal district (seven altogether) made up of about a dozen regions. For Russia to advance toward post-modernity. federalism by default. Its full implementation would ideally make Russia a unitary state." which greatly enhances the personal power of the president. is not a foregone conclusion. Russia remains a country where all players are rather weak. Integration al Security Concept approved in January 2000 lays stress on the primacy of domestic dangers to Russia's security. One of President Putin's first major moves was to strengthen the "vertical power structure" by reducing the powers of the regional heads and practically placing them under the authority of presidential representatives.
all references to the former principalities had disappeared. Muscovy's main characteristic was its tight centralization. Poland. and Central Asia — were becoming fully absorbed after a transition period of 15 to 30 years. Newly acquired territories — in the Caucasus. and their former place was taken by the Kremlin-appointed military governors. the following discussion will focus on the six remaining federal districts. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question federalism per se5 but will focus more narrowly on the issues of the country's territorial unity. in 1478 Ivan III took away to Moscow the bell that used to call the Novgoroders to their popular assembly. in 1815 a "kingdom within Russia. The general trend was toward unification and Russification. military. Bessarabia. A rare example of a Russian feudal constitution had ceased to exist. Territories were grouped together according to Moscow's administrative." with its own constitution. fifty years later became merely a collec- 239 . Thus. and the feudal boundaries withered away. With the Chechen problem and the general situation in the North Caucasus generally dealt with in Chapter Four. old Russian principalities were progressively being absorbed into the Great Russian state. from the time of Ivan the Terrible. Historical Evolution As the Collection of Lands proceeded. Local political identities were destroyed: the local princely families and the boyars were resettled in Moscow where they finally became part of the Russian elite. In a symbolic move against the ancient freedoms of Novgorod. The empire founded by Peter the Great continued to operate in an even more unified fashion. By the mid-16th century. Peter initially divided the country into eight governorates.Chapter VI. and economic needs.
five separate republics were built there. The Karelo-Finnish Republic was suddenly founded in 1940. which used the state as a front. In the Soviet period. was going in the same direction under Alexander III. and especially the "Stalinist" basic law of 1936. and quietly abolished 16 years later. all real power in the country belonged to the Communist Party apparatus.Part Three. initially on par with Georgia. 240 . but the nationalities issue was initially very prominent. adopted in 1924. When the USSR was being formed. Still." the autonomous republics and oblasts were even less stable. its first Constitution. and their proclaimed right of secession was all but impossible to exercise. The Transcaucasian Federal Republic. protected by an administrative border that separated it from the rest of the empire — which made it relatively safe for Lenin. From 1924 through 1936. was dismembered to create three individual entities. based on the needs of governing the country as a whole and treated as little more than administrative lines. Integration tion of governorates in a loose group called the "Vistula territory" (Privislyanskii krai). while still a Grand Duchy. These constituent republics were declared sovereign entities. Finland. Even more importantly. inter-republican borders were drawn rather arbitrarily. However. mainly for statistical purposes. all of Central Asia was part of the Russian Republic. lay clear an emphasis on the centralization of state power. then charged with high treason by the Provisional Government. it managed to preserve most of its freedoms through 1917. but their sovereignty was not real. At the next levels of the hierarchy of "national-territorial entities. another founding member of the Union. to go into hiding there in the summer of 1917. The Soviet Union started in December 1922 as a treaty-based federation. Abkhazia.
which were being created from 1920. Belarus. The Bolsheviks. Boundaries between the autonomous units were routinely adjusted. this became a burning issue. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question was later "assigned" to it. Karabakh was granted to Azerbaijan. Under Stalin. Their administrative limits were drawn. and Crimea was given to Ukraine as a "present" from Russia to mark the tri-centennial of the "reunification. eventually created an elaborate state structure that was federal/ confederal on the surface6. alongside with the republic of the Volga Germans and the Checheno-Ingush Autonomy. but was essentially strictly unified. but seldom finalized and made into law. Some autonomous republics have fared far worse. including secession. In reality. this was of course pure fiction." Between Russia. and Ukraine. The important but often underestimated difference between the USSR and the Russian Empire was that all ethnic groups and the constituent republics within the Soviet state formally enjoyed equal rights. had all the trappings of autonomy. Sources of Regionalization Anti-Bolshevik White Russian forces in the civil war fought under the slogan of "United and Indivisible Russia.Chapter VI. but no actual powers to act independently from the central authorities. even on the most trivial issues. even Polish independence was non-negotiable." For most among them. When the USSR collapsed. who in their search for allies against the imperial Russian state proclaimed the right of nations to self-determination. The national homelands. whole oblasts were switched from one "sovereign Soviet socialist state" to another. and redrawn by the central gov- 241 . the Crimean Tartar Autonomy was abolished. Only the latter was later restored.
9 Largely. In addition. because it includes both non-Russian ethnic republics and ethnic Russian regions or oblasts. which have essentially the same status. however. Like the president of Russia. in most Soviet republics ethnic Russians formed a majority. there has never been a "Russian republic" within the Federation. No opposition was tolerated. that Yeltsin made his famous offer to the regional heads: "Take as much sovereignty as you can swallow. There was also disagreement between those who regarded Russia as an inherently asymmetrical construction and those who preferred more symmetry. Moreover. the authorities in Moscow had to deal with a stream of petitions from the regions demanding ethnic rehabilitation and restitution. the Communist Party managed to control the situation. decentralization continued. in the wake of the dismantlement of the USSR. etc. unlike the Soviet Union. the Russian Federation made serious concessions to its own regions. The Russian Federation is not just a reduced copy of the USSR.Part Three. the regional interest groups within Russia that were wooed by both Gorbachev and Yeltsin in their struggle for primacy in Moscow emerged as the clear winners. This debate notwithstanding. while others favored a constitutionally based one.8 In more tranquil times.10 In 1991-1992. Some demanded a treaty-based federation. It was at that time. A number of "bourgeois nationalists" were sent to prison or executed. Integration ernment.7 and in several cases the Communist authorities had to resort to force to put down resistance movements. In the final years of perestroika." Accompanying this power struggle was a broader public debate about the structure of the post-Soviet Russian state. largely in a chaotic way. in 1991. presidents of the republics and regional governors came to be popu- 242 .
These concessions. however. The Yeltsin administration tolerated discrepancies between republican constitutions and the basic laws of the Federation. Later that practice became commonplace. Although the Russian Federation — unlike the USSR — had never been a treaty-based federation. massive separatism had ceased to be an imminent threat. By 1993. The country's territorial integrity was particularly stressed. The Constitution made the republics and the regions equal.Chapter VI. probably saved the Russian Federation from following the path of the USSR. No part of the Federation was allowed to seek secession. declined to sign that treaty. and Buryatia all proclaimed themselves "sovereign states. and Bashkortostan refused to pay taxes to the federal government." and Karelia announced its "economic sovereignty. Bashkortostan. Yakutia/Sakha. and proclaimed the supremacy of federal law and the unity of state power in Russia. This system was characterized as "feudal federalism. a special bilateral agreement was concluded between Kazan and Moscow in 1993."11 243 . with over half the regions having established "special" relations with the Federation. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question larly elected. adopted in December 1993. Tatarstan. which averted a potentially disastrous confrontation." In certain instances. and thus attained a high degree of independence from the Kremlin. was made an integral part of the Constitution. with impunity. signed in March 1992. relations between the Kremlin and the regions were largely regulated by special deals struck between the presidential administration and the regional authorities. although much criticized. The Federation saved Russia. the Federation Treaty. the regions — such as Tatarstan. Yakutia. When powerful regions. In reality. such as Tatarstan.
The proposed transport corridor linking East Asia with Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus (TRASECA) as well as the Silk Road. but the trend is unmistakable. The proposed projects involve rail and road links. Novosibirsk. there was only one international airport in the whole of the USSR. oriented toward commercial relations with their immediate neighbors across the border. and ordinary citizens cultivate close contacts with their peers in Belarus and Ukraine. Kaliningrad. and pipelines running west. Orenburg. Blagoveshchensk. telecom cables and the like. and east of the Caspian pose fierce competition. Omsk. Still. Vladivostok. For the first time in modern history. Petersburg are opening up to the outside world. Places deep in central Eurasia such as Astrakhan. Along Russia's western border. however. Khabarovsk. community leaders. oil and gas pipelines. the region's core state.12 244 . If it succeeds. south. Russia. Integration A number of new frontier regions have emerged. regional and local authorities. as well as the Caucasus.Part Three. and Irkutsk are all situated in border areas and have to cooperate closely with their neighbors. It is too early to talk about the formation of frontier communities along the lines of Euro-regions: a miracle borderland region is yet to emerge. In 1980. and even Murmansk and St. the influence of the rimland is stronger than the influence of Russia. Russia has the potential of eventually getting a fair share of that traffic. will not be able to monopolize that role. Those Russians who are looking hard for a niche to be filled by a future Russia point to the country's potential role as a land bridge between Europe and East and Central Asia. twenty years later there are dozens of them in Russia alone. central Eurasia will be opened up more and more. businesses.
For the first time since the mid-16th century. At the same time. Moscow may eventually turn into a mere negotiating place where the governors come to strike deals. the federation turned into a de facto feudal-type system in which the local governors and presidents of republics inside Russia emerged as the authoritarian rulers of 245 . In theory. this is related to the notion of multipolarity. which has no chance of becoming a global pole itself. this movement toward regionalization has been instituted by various vested interests seeking to expand their power and property holdings. whose rise and expansion puts the neighboring Russian regions.Chapter VI. is feeling the effects of rapid Islamization. which has stifled regional and local potential. Regionalization is an objective and healthy process. However. in the gravitation zones of Europe and China. Ironically. is being increasingly affected by the two real poles. with the majority of presidents and governors elected by popular mandate. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question This opportunity hides a serious danger. which raises an important issue of identity. Russia's southern periphery. cutting at the root of the Russian autocratic tradition. which bought loyalty at the price of non-interference. By 1996-1998. and economic reform than an overly centralized Russia. With the collusion of the Kremlin. especially in the North Caucasus. democratization. the European Union and China. a regionally oriented Russia offers a far better chance of the emergence of a civil society. which had been Russia's official foreign policy doctrine during Yeltsin's second presidency. power became consolidated at the regional level. Unless the central government devises and implements an imaginative regional policy. the country's northwest and the Far East. Russia. Russia has a chance to build from the bottom up. like so many other elements of the new order in Russia.
Russia was an extremely weak federation. in particular a functioning federal center. then virtually recognized as independent. Factors of Stability and Instability Both sets of factors exist side by side.Part Three. and horizontal inter-regional links were extremely weak. The question that was asked at the start of the Yeltsin era. To take one extreme example. and their relative strength constantly varies. The boundaries of the regions and the republics thus came to denote different political and. This was especially destabilizing in conditions where vertical (Moscow-to-the regions) relations traditionally dominated. then was invaded in the name of constitutional order. there was 246 . "will the Russian Federation follow the path of the USSR. which rested on the peculiar function of the Soviet Communist Party as the only. The prime factor of instability is the political implosion of central authority. once Russia's formerly fortress-like external borders turned into frontiers allowing exchanges of various kinds. They demand that factors contributing to Russia's territorial unity and those undermining that unity be carefully analyzed. and break up?" was reformulated: "will the steady decline of the central authorities lead to a de facto confederalization of Russia?" These are very serious questions. Chechnya was first allowed to proceed on its own. Integration their territorial fiefdoms. By the end of the Yeltsin presidency. From a purely economic point of view. and omnipresent power structure. even economic regimes. to some extent. and then neglected until a new war began. The dismantlement of the Communist machine was not compensated in the Yeltsin period by the formation of effective democratic institutions.
Chapter VI. Other factors of instability include the still high degree of ethnic. which was held together by military force and a centralized bureaucracy. If the new Russian identity will heavily draw on Slav ethnicity and Orthodoxy. The state. with which the central government was unable to cope. have slackened. and the resulting degradation of inter-regional links in such a vast country formed the material basis for economic separatism. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question not enough interest to prioritize the domestic links. One of the most serious practical obstacles to communication within this vast country has been high railroad tariffs.13 Cultural and personal contacts among the people have deteriorated. which have become much more locally recruited. The Russian Federation counts several republics whose indigenous population is Muslim or Buddhist. This challenge is only exacerbated by the largely successful work of the Russian Orthodox Church hierarchy aimed at winning a privileged position for itself in society and securing a permanent political role. Russia's economic crisis. Even the Armed Forces. and civilizational heterogeneity. the capital. The result was the semi-disintegration of Russia. where weak regions co-exist uneasily with an even weaker center. is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the forces of economic globalization. The principal stabilizing factor is the much higher degree of ethnic homogeneity enjoyed by present-day Russia in comparison to the USSR. and emotional links to such symbols of national unity as Moscow. The revival of Islam — and potentially Buddhist fermentation — has real implications for those republics and poses a major challenge to Russia. The population of the Rus- 247 . confessional. and the Black Sea resorts. where many ordinary people used to spend their vacations. the unity of the country even beyond the North Caucasus can not be guaranteed.
which manifested itself in endowing the ethnic homelands with Russian-populated areas. Another 4 percent (5. are sufficiently Russified. or the Buryats and Yakuts in Siberia. Altogether. Russia is composed of 89 regions. the last of which ceased to exist nearly 500 years ago. As a result of these and earlier imperial efforts. The Russian people themselves have a strong attachment to the unified state. There are no signs of the revival of regional political loyalties of this kind. compared with the Soviet Union's 50 percent. which was (a) artificially created by the Bolsheviks as a buffer against Japan. these ethnic groups are sufficiently dispersed around the country. political fragmentation is seen as a calamity. the ethnic Russian population roughly equals the Tatar one. The 248 . more importantly. such as Tartars. most non-ethnic Russian peoples that have their homelands. ethnic Russians mostly form a majority — as a result of the Soviet Communist party policy of assimilation. inseparably linked to the turmoil of a civil war or to foreign intervention. The old Russian principalities. most of which are relatively small and can not exist on their own. (b) extremely short-lived (1920-1922) and left few traces. In the popular mind. incidentally. Also.6 million) is made up of ethnic Ukrainians and Belarussians who are more or less evenly dispersed around the country and. The only "separatist" Russian state in recent history to be of some relevance is the Far Eastern Republic. Even in the national homelands. for example. Most Tartars. They have no modern experience of living in separate political entities. and directing migration flows. Integration sian Federation is 82 percent ethnic Russian. are virtually de-ethnicized.Part Three. live outside of Tatarstan — where. and (c) existed in a remote borderland. are distant and vague memories. Bashkirs and other peoples of the Volga-Urals basin.
without an ambition to become even lobbying groups vis-a-vis Moscow. if the central authority remains weak. which creates a paradox: while economically the Russian Far Eastern provinces are being willingly integrated with the far more powerful and dynamic China. The scale of devastation in Chechnya makes all talk of independence sound hollow. plans to enlarge the regions and reduce their number to 10-20. links between the regional administrations and the federal government are much stronger than between the neighboring regions. Japan. They value the kind of autonomy that they currently have. and though some of them want a better deal with Moscow. Ironically. none in- 249 . politically the population there is becoming increasingly defensive. discussed in an earlier chapter. but they see absolutely no future for them as part of a Greater China. Most regional elites in power now are pragmatically oriented. In these circumstances. have become marginalized. and especially Chechnya.14 There is also a new fear of being overwhelmed by neighbors. the continuation of the status quo is a much lesser evil.15 Under these conditions. and South Korea. always a small minority except in Chechnya. and in the Balkans. has not been missed by the regional elites within the Russian Federation and is not to be underestimated. They might wish to become a joint protectorate of America. The secessionists. is an atypical one. the case of the North Caucasus. could even increase the potential for separatism. rather than making the country more manageable. It must also be noted that the demonstration effect of the two wars in Chechnya and armed conflicts in the CIS states. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question existing eight inter-regional associations are nothing but governors' conferences.Chapter VI. Typically.
but sus- 250 . with only 10 out of 89 regions' being net contributors to the federal budget. the level of corruption is extremely high. even before the second Chechen war they would never have supported secession by a region. the federal center will probably not be challenged abruptly or en masse. even by current Russian standards. some regions and republics have had to act independently in the economic sphere simply to fill the vacuum of state authority. the Federation passed a law on national-cultural autonomy. it is economic not political particularism that is the main problem. the level of dependency on the central government continues to be very high. Integration tends to break away from the Russian Federation. Moreover. overshadowed by the notion of territorial autonomy. than the country's outright dismantlement. In both ethnic Russian regions and national homelands. the poor state of the Armed Forces and their growing dependency on local authorities led some Russian and foreign observers to explore the potential of Russia's coming apart at the seams of its military districts. The financial crisis of 1998 briefly raised the specter of Russia's de facto disintegration on purely economic grounds.Part Three. which was downplayed in Soviet times. but it may well lose gradually and by default. For its part. This is especially true of faraway or exposed territories as Primorye or Kaliningrad. and modest. As for the regular military. the beginning of the long-awaited economic upturn. In the same way as during the severe food crisis in 1990-1991 when many regional authorities closed their boundaries to food exports. Similarly.16 Still. A semi-dissolution of Russia is more of a real danger. Thus. about 80 percent of the nation's private capital is concentrated in Moscow. In addition. though at present a remote one. In both cases.
However. if not separatism. whose boundaries remained intact. provided that the center remains unconsolidated.18 Putin decided against enlarging the regions themselves. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question tained economic growth as well as the improvement of the system of governance in Russia is likely to depress trends toward secession and disintegration even more. if the central authorities remained weak. procurator's offices. one of the more prominent themes in the public debate has become the restoration of what is called the power vertical.Chapter VI. Proposals included appointment and dismissal of governors by the president. i. Endowing the president's men with authority over federal officials in their territory. Traditionally. and the military can effectively turn the seven regions into proto-states. the central political authority. The more relevant question is the degree of centralization that Russia will have and what the implications of such centralization will be for the territorial and political composition of the country. periods of decentralization in Russian history were followed by periods of recentralization. and enlargement of the regions. Russia is in search of a new regional order within its borders. ruled by presidential representatives. Putin decided to group the 89 regions. with the important exception of Chechnya. into seven federal districts.19 Instead. Even allowing for discontinuities. separatism is not a current issue. giving them a measure of control over money flows. which would possibly increasing the potential for autonomy. Thus. This initiative is laden with consequences. The extent to which this can be implemented. Eurasia in its internal form of an empire has also ceased to exist. ordinary and tax police. and the manner of 251 .17 With the end of the Yeltsin era.e. reducing the status of national homelands.
and labor. Tuva. • the Finno-Ugrian republics. In this context. Whatever the future of the territorial makeup of Russia. • the republics of the North Caucasus. capital. to the two republics' position as parts of the Muslim world. integrated deep within the core territory of the Russian state. the other. Its structural elements may be equal as subjects of the Federation. 252 . • the Buddhist republics of Kalmykia. and Buryatia. and a common legal space. attempting to affect the status or boundaries of national homelands can be very risky. Defining the status and role of the national homelands within the Russian Federation will be critical to the country's future. The National Homelands The non-Russian territorial homelands can be grouped as follows: • the Muslim republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Administrative measures from above can only achieve so much. Russia will only become integrated when there is a single market for goods. yet they are very different because of the continuing multiethnic nature of the state. the national homelands are not to be wished away. One part relates to their elites' confederalist aspirations. will be of crucial importance.Part Three. Integration implementation. the Russian Federation will in many ways remain asymmetrical. The challenge of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan is twofold. Even under the most propitious circumstances. Each of them presents very special challenges. owing to the country's imperial heritage.
the two republics proclaimed themselves "sovereign states.20 It jealously protects its authority within Tatarstan's borders. the decisive element remains the consistent but moderate approach of the Tatar authorities and the willingness of the federal government to accommodate Tatarstan's special status." which is enshrined in their constitutions. taking an independent stance on such issues as Chechnya and integration with Belarus. The factors responsible for the compromise political solution. acting as a valuable ally of the Kremlin. only 50 kilometers away.Chapter VI. indirectly. The present Kazan leadership regards Tatarstan to be in free association with the Russian Federation. 253 . which averted confrontation in 1992.21 However. rather than political ties with foreign countries. it has regularized links with fellow Turkic nations such as Turkey and Kazakhstan. Like Kazan. A national rebirth is doubtless taking place. Given that both republics are landlocked. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question In 1991. Bashkortostan also declared itself a sovereign state and subject of international law. but on other important occasions. neither of which can be taken for granted in the future. This would have provided Bashkortostan and. which was formed in the 14th century and existed until it was overrun by Ivan the Terrible in 1552 and annexed to Muscovy. are still present. The area in question has a high percentage of Tartar and Bashkir populations. the historical sources of statehood are traced to the Kazan khanate. In defiance of Moscow's official stance. Ufa recognized Abkhazia as a sovereign state. In the case of Tatarstan. Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiyev became a key figure in the Russian Federation Council. and pragmatically emphasizes economic and cultural. Bashkortostan proposed a territorial exchange with the neighboring Russian region of Orenburg to establish a direct border connection with Kazakhstan.
Part Three. Integration
Tatarstan a land link with the outside world. Despite Moscow's refusal to allow for a change in internal boundaries, the issue has not been put to rest. In both Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, the old idea of creating a confederacy of 8 million people is enjoying support at the top level, where the enclave status of both republics and the artificiality of their current borders are vehemently resented.22 The two Volga republics also experienced a rapid revival of Islam. This process can be best described as Nachislamisierung, for the original process of Islamization was abruptly stopped after the Bolshevik Revolution before it could be completed. The continued existence of the two republics as Muslim enclaves well inside Russia underlines a key point: for Moscow relations with the Muslim world are not only a foreign policy issue, or a peripheral problem of its borderlands (as in the North Caucasus), but also very much a matter of internal cohesion and the territorial integrity of the Federation. Russia's most serious problems with internal cohesion are concentrated in the North Caucasus. There, certain ethnic groups, such as the Chechens, Ingush, Balkars, and Karachais were banished to Kazakhstan and Siberia in the mid-1940s, to be rehabilitated and repatriated in the late 1950s. Whole republics were abolished and then restored, and the boundaries were constantly changing. After the end of the USSR, territorial claims, pent up for a long time, have led to violence. The first armed ethnic conflict in Russia occurred in October 1992 between the Ingush and the Ossetians over a piece of ethnically mixed territory that used to be Ingush and is now part of Ossetia. This conflict, although brought under control, remains essentially unresolved, for the return of refugees has been extremely slow, and relations
Chapter VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question
between the two communities have remained largely hostile. The Ingush republic constitutionally demands the "restoration of territorial integrity," while the Ossetian republic defends its territorial integrity. The federal center has been trying to mediate, but the conflict remains simmering. The situation is complicated by the wars in the neighboring Chechnya. There are many in Moscow, and among the Russian military, who see the Ingush USSR Ruslan Aushev as essentially anti-Russian and pro-Chechen, and at the same time regard Ossetia as the mainstay of Russia's entire position in the North Caucasus. In South Ossetia, about two thirds of the Ossetian population would favor unification with the North within the Russian Federation.23 The case of Chechnya is discussed in Chapter IV. Ingushetia, which broke away from Chechnya in late 1991, has decided to stay within Russia, although it has felt a constant need to accommodate Chechnya. Its border with Chechnya is not formally defined, which led to RussianChechen and Russian-Ingush clashes before and during both Chechen wars. The paradox of Dagestan is that despite a very high number of ethnic groups living in its territory, it has always been a single cultural and geostrategic area.24 In the 19th century, during the Caucasian wars, Dagestan, under Imam Shamil, led the Chechens against Russian rule. Fragmented, yet of one piece, it managed in the 1990s, against all odds, to preserve the precarious internal balance among its 34 nationalities. One of the more serious challenges to that balance was the rise of the Wahhabists, who in 19971999 organized a virtually independent enclave uniting three villages in the Buynaksk district, which was becoming the center of the anti-Russian movement in the North Caucasus.25 Those who supported the creation of an Islam-
Part Three. Integration
ic republic in Dagestan or its confederation with Chechnya were revealed in 1999 to be a small minority. The problem of Dagestan is conflict over land between the highlander and lowlander ethnic groups as a result of massive migration from the mountains into the plains. Each group attempts to stake out and protect its "ethnic territory." There are two types of processes in the area: separation and unification. The remaining twin republics of Karbardino-Balkaria and Karachaevo-Cherkessia have developed serious tensions between the two major ethnic groups arbitrarily grouped together in Soviet times. Small ethnic groups, such as Abazins, Nogais, claim the right to territorial autonomy. There is a parallel movement to unite ethnically close peoples, e.g., within a Greater Circassia, which would embrace Kabarda, Circassia, Adyghea, Abkhazia, and the lands claimed by the Abazin and the Shapsug.26 The federal authorities have been resisting both processes, as any change of existing borders would inevitably open a Pandora's box. In the areas where the Don and Kuban Cossacks live, they are an indigenous ethnic group. Their leaders insist on their group's distinct identity within the Russian ethnos. The radicals among the Cossacks call for the restoration of the semi-autonomous Territory of the Don Host, abolished by the Bolsheviks. Much of that territory coincides with the current Rostov region, but parts of it are in the neighboring Voronezh region and across the border in Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk regions). Terek Cossacks have long been demanding the return of two districts that were included into the Chechen-Ingush republic in 1957. When those districts were overrun by the Russian federal forces in the course of an "anti-terrorist operation" in Chechnya, ideas were put forth about a possible partition
Chapter VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question
of the republic, giving its northern third to the Cossacks. Other Cossack groups raised territorial claims to parts of North Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Dagestan.27 The Cossacks and their allies among Russian nationalists, accusing the government of inaction and cowardice, have been insisting on pro-active policies or, failing that, on taking the law into their own hands. However, despite these loud claims and resolute and warlike appearance, the Cossacks have been generally docile, unable to organize themselves either within Chechnya, or on its periphery, even to repel frequent Chechen incursions. In the rest of southern Russia, their leaders have been more interested in lucrative business practices than in politics. Thus, the central government, despite its weakness, has not found it hard to buy off the Cossacks by means of token concessions. The regional authorities in Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol, having legally prohibited the creation of Cossack enclaves in their regions, succeeded in quickly domesticating the local Cossack leaderships. As a result, no real paramilitary organizations sprang up outside of government control. If this were to change, however, the situation could quickly get out of hand. The three nominally Buddhist republics present a very different set of challenges. Tuva is the only part of present-day Russia that was nominally a sovereign state in modern times (1921-1944). It is also the only Russian republic whose Constitution contains a clause about the right of secession. However, the virtually total reliance on Russia in all areas and the lack of external support makes the Tuvinians unlikely separatists. Inter-ethnic relations in the republic, volatile in the early 1990s, are stable though the conflict is in a latent stage.28
Part Three. Integration
Buryatia, whose indigenous population is close to the Mongols (the republic's first name was Buryat-Mongolia), did not develop pro-independence or secessionist leanings. In any event, unification with Mongolia was hardly an attractive option. However, there is the latent issue of Buryat reunification, since two Buryat autonomous districts are located outside the boundaries of the republic.29 Kalmykia, although bordering on the North Caucasus, has been generally quiet. Its ruler, President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, is reputed to be one of Russia's most undiluted feudal autocrats. His brief defiance of Moscow in the late 1990s did outwardly resemble separatism, but more probably it was an example of blackmail designed to receive more subsidies from the federal budget.
The Finno-Ugrian Republics are the Least Restive
Karelia, a republic that in 1940 was given by Stalin the status of a constituent Soviet republic and the formal right of secession — in anticipation of a then apparently imminent Soviet takeover of Finland — has been the only one in the history of the USSR whose status was demoted. Ethnic Karelians, whose relatives in northern Karelia live across the border in Finland, are a minority in the republic; after the USSR broke up, only marginal though vocal groups called for a confederacy with Finland. Other fellow Finno-Ugrians, Komi, Mordovians, Udmurtians, and Mari, live in their republics well inside the territory of the Federation. When Soviet-era controls were abolished, only in the Komi Republic did a moderately nationalistic party gain ascendancy. Ingrians (or Ingermanlandians, as they are called in Russia) and Vesps,
Chapter VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question
who are both very close to the Finns and live in the borderland Leningrad region, are very small in number and have not requested territorial autonomy. Rather, many of them chose instead to emigrate to Finland.
The Pull of the West
It is sometimes argued that the continuation of Russia's transformation and Westernization could lead to the country's splitting along a new East-West divide inside Russia. In this scenario, Kaliningrad would be the first "convert" to Europe, but St.Petersburg followed by Novgorod and other regions of the North-West could form a major EUoriented bloc inside Russia. Moscow would remain cosmopolitan, but less relevant as a power center, whereas southern Russia would look to the Caspian and the Black Sea and beyond to Turkey, Iran and the Mediterranean. It will be up to Russia east of the Urals to form a new East.30 This scenario seems to be more than flawed. Westernization is happening in a non-linear fashion. It is not necessarily the places closest to Europe that adopt Western-like lifestyles and consumption habits first. Moscow is the undisputed leader, ahead of St.Petersburg, the historical locus of Russia's Westernization.31 Both capitals are then followed by the principal cities across the country, from Nizhny Novgorod to Novosibirsk to Khabarovsk. The port cities, wherever they may be, from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok, and the regions with substantial foreign capital investment also belong in the leading group. The process then radiates from the capitals, major cities, ports and investment centers farther and deeper into the hinterland. Siberia's vastness should not mesmerize observers: in reality, Russia east of the Urals resembles a wedge that is becom-
historically.Part Three. it chose to ignore the problem altogether. is certainly present. The Russians' situation. It needed to find a formula for managing that problem without raising a specter of imperial restoration abroad while at the same time being careful not to allow the domestic opposition to exploit the issue of ethnic Russians. which is the principal conduit for impulses originating in the country's metropolitan cities. The "divided nations" complex.R. The most likely result would be a more rapid Westernization of the territories lying between the Urals and the Pacific. The difference is that the Russians are not only Europe's largest ethnic group. but soon 260 .33 The Yeltsin government's stand was ambiguous. Most cities and towns are located in the vicinity of the Trans-Siberian Railroad. The "Russian Question" and the Chances of Ethnic Russian Separatism The break-up of the Soviet Union resulted in some 25 million ethnic Russians and 4 million people belonging to other ethnic groups with a homeland in the Russian Federation living beyond Russia's new borders.32 This situation presented the Russian government with a challenge.S. of course. although not yet a majority view. Integration ing ever narrower as one moves eastward. The Russian Federation itself is the home to several million people whose homelands have become independent states with the demise of the U.S. There is simply no option of an Eastern Russia should its European part become more closely intertwined with the rest of Europe. is by no means unique: at least 50 million other ex-Soviet citizens fall into the same category. but also the only ones who are not used. to such a situation. Initially. This has created a longterm problem.
who for whatever reason did not receive new citizenship after 1991.S. such as former Soviet mili- 261 . are eroding both the imperial and the local mentality. and some categories of professions. persons born in the territory of the Russian Federation." Latvia. under the circumstances. and their descendants. All others have to go through naturalization procedures.R. felt confident enough to follow suit.34 To be sure. There has never been any official recognition of the meaning of the term "compatriot". Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question began to suggest that it was prepared. the longterm trends. Latvia and Estonia have enacted legislation that automatically recognized as citizens only those who had those countries' citizenship at the time of their incorporation into the USSR in 1940. which is known as the "zero option. In most cases.Chapter VI. only Lithuania. with its 9 percent Russian population. It is a moot question whether this may have deterred mass anti-Russian pogroms in the new states. but living outside of it (between 3 and 5 million). The Russian Federation automatically granted its citizenship to all its residents who held Soviet passports at the time of the dissolution of the U. Belarus.S. this was bluster. Moldova and Central Asian countries did the same. reneged on the promises its leaders made in 1990-1991 to grant the resident Russians equal citizenship rights. and those who possess dual citizenship. on the contrary. working very unevenly in each of the new states. A very broad definition includes former USSR citizens. Of the Baltic States. Ukraine. to use military force to help "compatriots" in the "near abroad". Russian citizens living in CIS countries or the Baltic States. In fact. nationality in the post-Soviet world is still very closely linked to ethnicity – nowhere among these new states will one find a citizenship-based nation. Still. and very unhelpful at that.
The Russian government called this blatant discrimination. in the OSCE. well after the Baltic States). which briefly toyed with the idea of using the schedule of the troop withdrawal or the threat of economic sanctions as leverage vis-a-vis Tallinn and Riga. and to exclude the Russians from the process of state property privatization. Although the OSCE and the Council of Europe recommendations fall short of what Moscow believes should be changed in the Baltic States' legislation. and the United Nations. has opted for seeking international support. have fashioned themselves as the prime champions of the Baltic Russians' cause — in the face of the government's "inaction".Part Three. Russia. have been totally disqualified. the Council of Europe (which Russia joined in 1996. The Russians who settled down in Estonia and Latvia at the time when those were constituent parts of the USSR were not to be compared to Turkish guest workers who actually had to cross borders to arrive in Germany. Russian officials privately suggest that they would be happy to see these recommendations fully implemented. Integration tary and security officers. etc. was quick to point out that the special situation of the Baltic Russians had not been taken into account. seeing their 262 . and the various Russian commentators suggested that the true reason for such treatment was to secure political and administrative power in the hands of the titular ethnic elites. There is also a widely shared view that the Baltic Russian issue is becoming less acute. The government. which continue to be very strong in the State Duma. with most people adapting to the situation. admitting formal conformity of these acts with the legal documents operating in Western European nations. and the governments. The nationalist groups in Russia.
with the sole exception of Turkmenistan: all the rest remained fearful of erosion of their own citizenship corps. turning them into Russian citizens has never been its preferred policy in the Baltic States. helping Russian "compatriots" fully establish themselves as rightful citizens of the new states has always been a declared priority. Belarus and Ukraine. The language laws were adopted from 1988. The prospect of membership in the European Union is offering the Baltic Russians the prospect of becoming the first "Euro-Russians. to grant citizenship to some 120. This proposal was rejected by all Russia's partners. Meanwhile. the Russian language preserved most of its previous functions. Bowing to a wave of requests by the people who needed a document to travel. When the Russian consular officers proceeded to do the same in Crimea in 1995. are easing up. Independence from Russian is both the first outward sign of independence from Russia and a key element in the construction of a new national identity. The first step to achieving that identity was de-Russification.Chapter VI. and Moscow had to backtrack. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question independence secured and immediate political goals fulfilled. during the first post-Soviet decade. however. In Belarus. Russia urged other CIS states to allow dual citizenship. In all the new states.000 residents of Estonia and a far smaller number of those living in Latvia. it had. 263 . their enactment significantly accelerated the republics' march to independence and thus the disintegration of the Soviet Union. which is legal under Russian law. this provoked Kiev's anger." For Moscow. This turned out to be most difficult in the two Eastern Slav republics. the Russian language has been quickly replaced by indigenous tongues as the state language.
and the language was considered a prime vehicle of identification. Sweeping Ukrainization was first attempted by the Central Rada government in 1918. Catholic masses. and the obligatory slots on television. the cultural breakdown of the Ukrainian population is as follows: 40 percent Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians. Nationalist feelings there have always been far stronger than in Belarus. It must be especially noted that in Ukraine. Integration The efforts by the Belarussian National Front and its supporters among the national intelligentsia to promote the indigenous language brought only limited results.35 It is interesting to compare this data with the Ukrainians' attitude to Russia (61 percent positive). bowing to the pressure of his more powerful allies in western Ukraine. According to one analysis. the number of Russian speakers is substantially higher than the share of ethnic Russians in the population (20 percent). and was repeated from 1991 under Ukraine's first president. 20-21 percent Russianspeaking Russians. Leonid Kuchma. and 4-5 percent Russian. Russian remains both the official language and the language of the urban population. while the use of Belarussian is confined to the villages. and the overwhelming support for keeping the Ukrainian-Russian border transparent. Poles et al. their stand on the desirability of a political union between the two countries (one third positive). His successor. who during the 1994 presidential campaign vowed to give Russian an official status (which helped him defeat Kravchuk) had later to renege on his promises.and Ukrainianspeaking Jews. 33-34 percent Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Leonid Kravchuk. Ukraine offers a different paradigm. 1-2 percent Ukrainian-speaking Russians (in Galicia).36 264 .Part Three. The language situation in Belarus closely reflects political realities and relations with Russia.
Central government bureaucracy was the first to be Ukrainized. Whereas in Galicia. and Western Ukraine. but Russian will remain a second language in a country that. Universities are a more distant goal. this is in fact the case already. The number of Russian schools has dramatically decreased in Transcaucasus. In the long run. but their circulation is rather limited. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question While fully committed to a policy of Ukrainization. which never belonged to the Russian empire. Russian has never been the preferred means of communication. while secondary schools are an immediate priority. Local Russian-language newspapers have survived. will preserve close ties with its neighbor to the east. even as it remains fully independent. such as Donetsk and Lugansk. it is probable that Ukrainian will finally assert itself. In Crimea.Chapter VI. Meanwhile. and spent only 50 years within the USSR. eastern ukrainian provinces. Regional differences are also very important. Russian television went 265 . but in the economic agencies and in the military this process is more drawn-out. The Russian language has met a very different fate outside of the Eastern Slav countries. Access to Russian electronic and print media in the Ukrainian market was sharply curtailed. Newspapers from Russia reach only the capitals and some of the major cities. held referenda in which close to 90 percent of the voters spoke in favor of making Russian a second official language. the government in Kiev has been careful to proceed incrementally. Ukrainian is gradually establishing itself as the only official language in the country. easing the Russian language out from the various spheres step by step. In the first seven years after independence. the number of purely Russian schools decreased seven times. the Baltic States.
its re-broadcasting has been reduced in eastern and southern Ukraine. opinion leaders and academics. with respect to their property-owning rights) as well as politically. the plight of Ukrainian and Estonian heavy industries. however. The exception is the ethnic Russian intelligentsia." they never fell for it. Russian-language radio broadcasting is still common. In Lviv. the local Russians have accepted the reality of the 266 . public airing of Russian songs was formally banned in 2000. this has never become a dominant trend even within the Russian political elite. economically (for example. Integration off the air in the Baltic States. and discontinued in Galicia altogether. Unlike in Serbia. but some of the richer people in Latvia and Estonia are ethnic Russians or "Russianspeaking" Jews. maintained that the Russian state should include all territories where the Russians constitute a majority — from north-eastern districts of Estonia to the northern provinces of Kazakhstan. which suffers from the loss of many teaching positions and the impossibility of getting a job in the state-run sector. Since 19891990. the Russians in the Baltic and Ukraine did not have to fear physical violence. concentrated in either country's eastern region. For the latter. A few Russian politicians. and Kosovo. The living standards of the Russian population of all the Baltic and the new Eastern European states is generally comparable to majority ethnic groups in those countries. the key factor was that unlike the Serbs in Croatia. Bosnia. taking their cue from their Serbian colleagues. has dealt a blow to the living standard of the regions' mostly Russian blue-collar workforce.Part Three. As to the "compatriots. Still. The non-citizens are discriminated against. however. However. and Russian pop and rock music has many fans among the youth of the new states.
not bothering to defend the disintegrating Soviet Union. lack of popular mobilization. southern. There is a distinct prospect that Latvia and Estonia will become cleft societies. most of them were passive. Initially. which since early 1991 has been a republic within Ukraine. A decade later. In the eastern. Yury Meshkov. The Crimean Tartars 267 . Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question Baltic States where they live. virtually no Russian has rebelled against the Baltic States. and Moscow's abstention from the crisis allowed Kiev to gain the upper hand. In Belarus. became especially tense in early 1994 when a pro-independence candidate. and a strong minority voted for independence. but few regard Latvia or Estonia as their states. however. Russians have not been the only ones advocating closer ties between Ukraine and Russia. was elected Crimean president. Soon. "integration" with Russia has been the dominant political theme anyway. Only in Crimea. and not only because of the Russians. Still. have there been moves to separate and either join Russia or continue as an independent political entity. further normalized it. helped calm the situation. Most of these then became bitterly disillusioned when Latvians and Estonians breached their promises. for that matter.Chapter VI. and all are glad to be moving to the European Union. and the 1997 Russo-Ukrainian Treaty. there is no loyalty lost. the Crimean capital. The relationship between Kiev and Simferopol. The successful work of an OSCE conflict-prevention mission and the deterring effect of the war in Chechnya. and central regions of Ukraine. complete with an agreement on the Black Sea Fleet. or yet gained. which began in late 1994. Crimea remains a potentially explosive issue. with permanent tension between their two communities. In other words. factional strife within the Crimean elite.
Many Tartars are not yet Ukrainian citizens. other leaders come from different ethnic groups. and Russians. are turning the ethnic situation into a three-corner one. policed the cease-fire.37 Should this situation reach the level of an open conflict. The political process became more intense from 1996 when the OSCE. was succeeded by a long impasse when Russian peacekeepers. with Tartars as the titular national group. The self-proclaimed Dniestrian Moldavian Republic has a mixed population of Ukrainians. A similar agreement has been negotiated between Romania and Moldova. it could draw in other countries. While it has an ethnic Russian president.Part Three. and numbering 250. The conflict. which in 1992 threatened to suck in the Russian troops in the area. This was only partly ethnic in nature. Moldavians. A triangular Russian-Tartar-Ukrainian conflict over power-sharing and the return of property confiscated when the Tartars were banished to Central Asia is a major potential problem. which reaffirmed its desire to remain an independent state. and no progress was made in resolving the political dispute. A de- 268 . and Ukraine started to coordinate their efforts to move the parties to a solution that would preserve Moldova's unity. first of all Russia and Turkey. Integration returning from banishment in Uzbekistan. Russia. Tartar organizations are demanding the restoration of Crimean autonomy. The only case of real separatism in the new Eastern Europe was in Moldova. alongside the belligerents. where an armed conflict broke out in 1992 along the Dniester River. resulting in a 1997 treaty fixing the existing borders de jure.000 at the end of 1997. They often lack decent housing and permanent work. The situation was ameliorated by Bucharest's final repudiation of the notion of restoring a Greater Romania and its formal rejection of any territorial claims to Ukraine.
and rein in some- 269 . South Ossetia. Russians began leaving Kazakhstan. but most of them have so far preferred to stay. however. let alone call for autonomy of the northern regions. Conclusion As far as its internal composition is concerned. Secessionist proclamations have been made by several Cossack leaders. economic. the issue is not only the implementation of the formula of a common state. Russians complain about the ethnocratic character of the government at all levels. Russia is likely to preserve its territorial integrity. but the great majority of them have chosen not to protest publicly. but perhaps equally so the fate of the Transdniestrian leadership. Finally. to join the Russian Federation. The Russian government. In Kazakhstan. A failure of civic integration in Kazakhstan would lead to a very severe conflict in that republic and possibly to a confrontation between Kazakhstan and Russia along the world's longest border. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question cade after the armed violence. there were declarations of intent by the unrecognized separatist states. it is difficult to expect that the problem will go away by itself. where Russians form a majority. and security quarters responded favorably. Some Russian political.Chapter VI. but the problem is potentially fraught with the gravest of consequences. never officially flirted with the idea. With so many of them remaining. and the alleged conspiracy to start an armed rebellion to create an independent Russian Altai republic in eastern Kazakhstan is an odd and isolated development. hoping to strengthen their hand. such as Abkhazia. Initially after independence. as well as the Azeri Lezghins. Transdniestria. and from the start of the second Chechen war has strongly repudiated separatism.
There are. they assimilate others. Eventually. or subjects of Russia. at the sufferance of the federal constitution. and "Russian. for example. although either country in the course of the 20th century absorbed millions of Russian expatriates. will be established — as a result of the central government's drive for more uniformity. ironically. fewer in number and more adequate to economic and social realities. that have been exercising an inordinately high degree of autonomy. the recentralization effort could have explosive consequences. and its regions. Integration what those regions — both "ethnic. a new structure of regions. a very powerful "Russian lobby" in Israel. One consequence of the Russians' close attachment to their state is that they generally lose their identity relatively quickly and easily once they are no longer citizens.Part Three. Russia won't be a unitary state. Moscow probably won't become another Brussels. By the same token. a place for negotiations among the still largely sovereign entities. fewer in number but larger and potentially more powerful. (There is. but it is anything but ethnically Russian). they are eager to be assimilated themselves. If mishandled. This recentralization will have its limits. This new more genuinely federal Russia will not be a "Russia of the regions" in the sense that it won't be a treaty-based federation. no Russian lobbies in America or France. 270 . and the regions' desire to play a more prominent role in the affairs of the state." such as Tatarstan. which can bring about serious and potentially violent conflicts. As to the ethnic Russians now outside of the Federation. will be important players on the domestic and the national scenes. especially in Tatarstan and parts of the North Caucasus." such as Primorye. In Russia. is unlikely to be attempted. once outside of Russia. they face very different futures. Abolition of national homelands.
and binds the fate of the union to the political future of President Lukashenko. and are fully manageable over the longterm. and the Russians' best hope lies in their resident countries' accession to the European Union. This uneasy relationship will remain a permanent factor in RussoBaltic and. are likely to become divided societies with calm but tense relations between the ruling ethnic majority and the sizeable Russian minority. In Crimea. which is expected to level the playing fields in Latvia and Estonia somewhat.Chapter VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question Unlike Western Europe or the United States. however. Russians will continue to live largely without any problems in Belarus. but not becoming fully integrated for a long time to come. exhibit various forms of ethnically based and often anti-Russian nationalism. The two countries. 271 . which the indigenous elites use as a basis for state.and nation-building. All-inclusive Baltic civic societies are a long way off. with the notable exception of Crimea. Belarus has not been able to establish its national identity. This logically makes Belarussian nationalism anti-Russian and pro-Western. the Ukrainian government is facing a serious test over its ability to avert a potentially explosive conflict involving the Crimean Tartars and the ethnic Russian majority. the Russians will coexist with the indigenous majority groups. In most of Ukraine. by extension. the Russians' problems are confined to the language issue. and its leaders have opted for a union with Russia. Newly Independent States of the former USSR. In the Baltic States. where Belarussianization has failed. By contrast. gradually acquiring citizenship. where most of these Russians live. Russian-Western relations. This creates a wholly different kind of problem.
As in Ukraine. which is fragile domestically and vulnerable externally. In Tajikistan. with the help of the OSCE. will survive in tiny niches. but they depend on the viability of a somewhat looser political regime in that country. On a visit 272 . the emerging situation will be very uneven. During much of the 1990s Moscow paid lip service at best to the problems of ethnic Russians. where the future of the local Russian community depends on the economic success and political and social tolerance of the new state. within the ethnically defined local societies. In the South Caucasus. there are reasons to believe that the Russian community in Moldova can find a modus vivendi with the Moldovan majority. Turkmenistan. and perhaps the European Union joining forces to achieve it. which cannot be guaranteed with any certainty. Integration Moldova on the other hand appears ready for conflict resolution with Russia and Ukraine. The hardest problem is Kazakhstan.Part Three. the Russian minorities. and Uzbekistan local Russians realize that the future holds no hope for them. and the public remained passive and uncaring. decimated by ethnic conflicts and wars. in August 1999 Vladimir Putin highlighted protection of the rights of Russian citizens and Russian compatriots as a major task of his government. Across Central Asia. The younger people will try to migrate to Russia. By contrast. even in his first pronouncement as Prime Minister. With the end of the Yeltsin era. with only few remaining in the region. the attitudes of the federal government in Moscow and the Russian public to the Russian diaspora in the Newly Independent States has undergone a subtle but significant change. devoid of major political or economic significance. The prospects for those living in Kyrgyzstan are only slightly less grim.
Dagestan. and Yaroslavl regions.Petersburg) includes the republics of Karelia and Komi. In early 2000.1. Vladimir. Ivanovo. Vologda. Leningrad. North Ossetia-Alania. the Russian government can be expected to be both more assertive on the issue of the Russian diaspora abroad. As to Bukhara. The North Caucasus federal district (capital: Rostov/Don) is composed of the republics of Adygeia. and finally abolished after the next major uprising of 1863. Kontseptsiya natsionalnoy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Nenets autonomous region. Lipetsk. Karachai-Cherkessia. Bryansk. Pskov regions. and Uryanhaiskiy krai (Tuva). Khiva and Bukhara (from the second half of the 19th century). Krasnoyarsk and 2 3 4 273 . Kalmykia. Murmansk. Ingushetia. Moscow City and Moscow Region. the Russian questions are many — and many more than there are solutions to. was elected chair of the Duma International Affairs Committee. formally outside of the empire. Polish autonomy was minimized after the uprising of 1830-1831. and the city of St. a champion of Russian rights. Tula. In the years to come.Chapter VI. Khiva. Novgorod. There is no single Russian Question. Kaluga. long-time leader of the Congress of Russian Communities. Chechnya. Kabardino-Balkaria.Petersburg. Tambov. p. The North-Western federal district (capital: St. Smolensk. Tver. from 1914). Rather. As Acting President. The Central federal district (capital: Moscow) includes Belgorod. Outer Mongolia (from 1911) and Uryankhai Territory (now Tuva. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question to Uzbekistan the following December. Dmitry Rogozin. and to calibrate its actions more carefully than was done under Yeltsin. Voronezh. he met with representatives of the local Russian community. Putin personally intervened in the case of a Soviet war veteran facing trial in Latvia. Kursk. Kostroma. Ryazan. Oryol. and Arkhangelsk. they were Russian protectorates. NOTES 1 Only the Grand Duchy of Finland enjoyed real autonomy toward the end of the Romanov empire. Kaliningrad.
"A Wedged Bear. Lastly.Part Three. Mariy El.1 (Winter 1997). 10 autonomous districts. Khakasia. Nizhni Novgorod. Novosibirsk. Komi-Permyatski autonomous region. the Chukotka and Koryak autonomous districts. E. argues that should tariffs stay high. Kemerovo." Pro et Contra. and Volgograd regions. Irkutsk. Vol. Mordovia. No." Nezavisimaya gazeta. and Astrakhan. the Far Eastern federal district (capital: Khabarovsk) includes the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Tyumen regions.in the Great Tightness. Ust'Ordynski autonomous regions. Balkars banished by Stalin to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The Urals federal district (capital: Yekaterinburg) is made up of Chelyabinsk. Tuva. Yamalo-Nenetski autonomous regions. Udmurtia. a prominent economist and a former Mayor of Moscow. The Siberian federal district (capital: Novosibirsk) includes the republics of Altai. Khabarovsk and Maritime territories. 5 autonomous regions. quoting Sergei Witte's phrase that the issue of rail tariffs is the issue of national unity. Rostov. 1999. one of the 15 constituent parts of the Soviet Union. E. 5-20. p.Garnett. Aginski Buryat.2. Nikolai Petrov. from the Chechens. Perm. the Jewish autonomous region. the Ingush. Orenburg. The Russian Federation within the USSR. Krasnoyarsk legislative assembly). 2000. Economic sepa- 274 . in Tatarstan The Chechens.g. Integration Stavropol territories. Chuvashia. Samara.. Omsk.. p. 5 Cf. the Karachais. and the Crimean Tartars. Regiony Rossii.8 12 Sherman W. 11 Alexander Uss (Chair. 13 Gavriil Popov. The Volga federal district (capital: Nizhny Novgorod) includes the republics of Bashkortostan. Sverdlovsk.. Sakhalin regions. Saratov. and Khanty-Mansi. Amur. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center. Chita. "Rossii — imperskuyu federatsiyu. Penza. Tatarstan. 6 7 8 9 10 Cf.g. Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetski). contained 16 autonomous republics. Tomsk regions. in particular — up until the German invasion of 1941 — but also the Don and Kuban Cossacks in the early 1920s. Ulyanovsk regions. Buryatia. Kamchatka. Kurgan. they will make Kaliningrad turn to the EU. Evenk. April 6.. the Winter 2000 issue of Pro et Contra dedicated to "The Center and Regions of Russia". the Atlai and Krasnoyarsk territories. and Kirov. and orient Siberia toward China.
March 15. Some military garrisons are supported with money from local entrepreneurs… As a result. Siberian Accord." (Thomas Graham. the loyalty of the military and security forces to the central government — even the elite units around Moscow — is dubious. Nikolai Shmelyov. "Military commanders are known to cut deals with regional and local governments in order to ensure themselves uninterrupted supplies of energy and provisions. "Natsionalnyy vopros v Rossii. and the Far East/Transbaikal) that are nothing but fora for limited economic and social cooperation. Transport. the Director of the Institute of Europe within the Russian Academy of Sciences. It is interesting to note that in Kazan. p. Chapter 7. In: Regiony Rossii v 1998 g. North Caucasus. p. 16 Thomas Graham writes. 2000. to be a Tatarstan citizen without being at the same time a citizen of the Russian Federation. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 275 . This does not mean that they would carry out the will of the local leaders — there is little evidence that they would — but rather that they would not necessarily defend the central government in a crisis. Nikolai Petrov. and has been trying to co-opt and cultivate the locally-based Russian military personnel. 2000. Moscow Carnegie Center: Gendalf. the capital of Tatarstan. e. 1997.Chapter VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question ratism. p. Andranik Migranyan. 20 It is legally possible. A similar point was made by another noted economist.227-62. from a Kazan point of view. Nikolai Shmelyov. he warns. Greater Urals. 2000. p. "A World Without Russia?")." Nezavisimaya gazeta. #12. Rubezhi. p.57 18 See. the local officers' club and the gates of some Russian military units fly both the federal and Tatarstan flags — Kazan certainly did learn a lesson from a near-confrontation with the central authorities in early 1992. Black Soil Lands.8 19 See endnote 14.. Central Russia. This is a fair assessment. 17 Cf.. there are eight interregional associations (North-West. logically leads to a change in political loyalty.38 14 At present. Otnosheniya "Centr-regiony" i perspektivy territorialno-gosudarstvennogo pereustroystva strany. April 28. Strategiya dlya Rossii: Povestka dnya dlya Prezidenta-2000 (Moscow: Vagrius.8. Cf.g. 15 This observation is based on the author's own conversations with the representatives of regional elites in Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in 1998-1999. 1999. Cf.g. Greater Volga. e. Gavriil Popov.
Ruthenia. Aginski and Ust-Ordynski enclaves were part of the Buryat-Mongol republic. Jordan. No. 1999. however. respectively to. 1997. Rossiyskoe gosudarstvo: natsionalnye interesy.Part Three. and North Bukovina. He insisted on the annexation of the Ukrainian lands which had never belonged to the Russian empire. Of the combined population of the two enclaves. Buryatia's Supreme Soviet called this decision illegal and claimed back parts of its historical territory. 2000.92 28 Ibid. 23 Bulleten seti etnologicheskogo monitoringa i rannego preduprezhdeniya konfliktov. 32 Stalin.60. p. just over 50% are Russians. Attempts to put this item on the agenda of the State Duma have invariably failed. and then transferred . 27 Op. p. Moscow: Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology. 1999. perspektivy. Novosibirsk: Sibirskiy Khronograf.3. ironically.38 25 Ibid. p. p. Mezhetnicheskie otnosheniya. was a great "unifier" of nations. cf.. which was assigned to Belarus in 276 .44 26 The Adyg-Abkhaz group has a numerous diaspora in the Middle East. Integration 21 For a recent summary of official Tatarstan views. Russian Academy of Sciences.000. p. about 220. Bjalystok. In 1993. Syria. 31 It is interesting to note that Muscovites and Petersburgians have lately become accustomed to celebrating Western Christmas along with the Orthodox one (although the functions of the two events are different. 30 Cf. Annual report 1998. cit. Lebanon. December 31. Farid Mukhametshin (chairman of the State Council.4 22 Bashkortostan President Murtaza Rakhimov. p. p. February 15. granitsy. and the latter one is the only religious celebration).108 29 From 1923 through 1937. Nezavisimaya gazeta. Kazan za realnyy federalizm. Igor Yakovenko. Chita and Irkutsk regions. such as Galicia. numbering 2 million people in Turkey.25. had no immediate consequences. as quoted by Igor Rotar in: Natsionalnaya politika Ufy vygodna Kremlyu. 1999.82 24 Mezhetnicheskie otnosheniya i konflikty v postsovetskikh gosudarstvakh. p. Nezavisimaya gazeta. especially the Ukrainians and Belarussians. May-June 1999. or parliament). This.
He supported Azeri nationalism in northern Iran. R.259 36 Cf. May 23. integrated strategies" concluded a report by the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. V. and the Uygur national movement in Xinjiang. p.4 34 Alexei Miller. p. 35 Cf. #3.44 37 Nezavisimaya gazeta. Polis.F. 1996. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question 1939.A. p. p. NG-Stsenarii. Rossiya na poroge XXI veka. Kolosov.Chapter VI. (Spring) 1997. 33 "Protection of their interests by methods of traditional diplomacy is practically impossible on a long-term basis and requires other. Pro et Contra. was only reluctantly returned to Poland in 1945. Turovskii. p. 1996. 1997. Vol. Geopoliticheskoe polozhenie Rossii na poroge XXI veka: realii i perspektivy. December 11. Moscow: RAU-Korporatsiya and Obozrevatel Publishers. Ukraina kak natsionaliziruyushcheesya gosudarstvo.2. No.88. 2000.2.3 277 .
habits. Often it is credited (by the Slavophiles. Russia was effectively separated from the rest of Europe by Mongol rule. as has been observed. this changed Russia's identity. physical appearance and ethnicity of the people itself — were heavily affected. Russia embraced an Orthodox version of Christianity and the Byzantine model of government. Toynbee. Russia experienced no Reformation. which set it apart from Germano-Roman Western Europe. defining its new place and role. The search for a new identity was cut short by the Bolshevik Revolution which deformed Russia and did not provide any lasting solutions to the crisis. The Russian political system — the ways. Later on. much more than a mere physical separation. Already in the late 19th century it was becoming evident that the old "Russian idea" had outlived its usefulness. In the 10th century.CHAPTER VII Fitting Russia In he change of Russia's traditional identity. and Samuel Huntington) with being a distinct civilization in its own right. is not a new phenomenon. The search has resumed. Its religious schism of the 17th century was a totally different T 278 . Key components will be fitting Russia in the wider world. For a long time this argument appeared credible. The fundamental fact about Russia is that it lies on the periphery of several of the world's civilizations. and examining the supranational identities that the country can consider in the changing global environment.
The Communist Party did claim that the USSR and the socialist community represented a new civilization radically different from that of the capitalist West and the backward feudal East. first of all on society. Fitting Russia In phenomenon. European Enlightenment gave an impetus to the flowering of Russian literature and the arts but again failed to liberate the spirit of the people. "The USSR. the majority of which remained slaves until 1861. The Communist rule by definition set Russia apart from the rest of the world. it nevertheless displayed many uniquely Russian features. and a westernized upper class. this capitalism was unable to manage the myriad conflicts within Russian society and was swept away by the Bolshevik Revolution. but. Freedom of travel was immediately considered to be among the principal human freedoms. Modernization ("Westernization") under Peter the Great provided the country with a powerful modern military." a thoughtful American analyst once observed. This Soviet civilization was deemed to be universalist in nature. an industry. but it failed to reach deeper into the masses of the people who were progressively more and more alienated from both the upper classes and the state. extending from eastern Germany and Albania to China and North Vietnam. "had the world's longest borders but no real frontiers. not pleasure. which used to be confined within that border. Short shopping trips help them to survive inside Rus- 279 . When slavery was finally abolished and capitalism could develop in Russia. but in practice."1 The end of the USSR had a revolutionizing effect not just on the day-to-day operation of the border. Most Russian people cross the border for profit (however small). although it rejected Russian traditionalism. "Eurasia" was never so big and self-contained as under Stalin's rule.Chapter VII.
The number of border crossings barely doubled.Part Three. 5 million people (out of a population of 280 million) crossed its borders. and expensive. and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation espousing a traditionalist ideology. have yet to visit European Russia. The explosion of contacts with the outside world came together with the fall in intra-Russian communication. and there was an acute shortage of personnel. the undesired effect of globalization quickly came to be felt. having made many trips to China and Japan. and the re- 280 . With Communism marginalized. in 1996. almost exclusively on government business. those who thought of Russia as a Western country and those who believed in its Sonderweg. The reason for this was the over-abundance of optimism on both sides. As a result. which was no less dramatic. While in the final years of the USSR. destination. and expertise to manage the new situation. There has been an exponential growth in the number of border crossings. now many Far Easterners. 60 million people crossed Russian frontiers both ways. which has suddenly become a very distant. one Russian in five traveled abroad in 1996. The government and its agencies were anything but prepared for this sudden and massive change. Russia-as Part-of-the-West: A False Dawn The first attempt to fit Russia within the boundaries of Western civilization was a failure. Whereas before the 1990s to fly from Vladivostok to Japan or from Tallinn to Helsinki one had to go to Moscow first. The end of the Soviet Union again raised the question of Russia's identity as a civilization. the main protagonists were again. equipment.2 On average. Integration sia.
Joining NATO as "the United States of Eur- 281 . social. or even later when senior Russian figures casually mentioned their "vision" of Russia in the European Union3 no attempt was made to think through even the most obvious implications of either membership. for it failed to confer a special status on Russia. Fitting Russia In fusal to see the formidable difficulties involved. not the inflated ideas that its leaders had of themselves. Somehow it was believed that Russia was a Western country by birthright. had liberated itself and others whom the Bolsheviks had also held hostage. he hardly reached in his thinking beyond the uppermost layer of international politics and strategy. little effort was made to explain its nature and to develop the architecture of such a "space. This elite "Westernist" desire to gain access to the prestigious clubs was strengthened by the popular expectation that joining the community of the world's most prosperous nations would soon make Russia itself prosperous and successful. When at the turn of the 1990s the phrase was coined of a common security space from Vancouver to Vladivostok. but the idea of a Euro-Atlantic area did not become popular. Russia was to be treated according to the realities of its economic. Russia acceded to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. and deserved the warm embrace of the rest of the Western community and eternal gratitude from its co-hostages. political.4 The elites soon realized that they had received far less than what they had bargained for. later renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. and legal systems. When in the late 1980s Mikhail Gorbachev started his calls for a common European home." When in 1991-1992 Moscow played with the idea of applying for NATO membership.Chapter VII. that it had only been held hostage by the Bolsheviks for more than 70 years.
and playing the role of a junior partner to Washington brought accusations of toadyism against then Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.5 Above all." the rest of the world (meaning the West) remained loyal to the "old thinking" and the reality of national interests. The West did help Russia get rid of her imperial possessions. They see the aim of the West in extending its sphere of influence to the former socialist countries and ex-Soviet republics. which put Russia into the same category as Estonia and Moldova. The Partnership for Peace program. NATO enlargement was the turning point. was perceived as a calculated slight. Integration asia" was out of the question. A world condominium of America and the newly democratic Russia was immediately exposed as a chimera. when it came at last in 1998 at Birmingham. 282 .Part Three. Its effect on the Russian elites cannot be explained merely in terms of threat perceptions. but it also fails to explain the vehemence of Moscow's reaction. As a well-known historian put it. have preserved a keen interest in traditional geopolitics. Membership in the G-8. In the words of an eloquent exponent of that view. having shed Communism. Most members of the new Russian elite. while Russian idealists fell for the abstract ideas of "new thinking" and the "common interests of humanity. there was bitter disappointment with the West in general. Russia was allegedly thrown 70 years back to the times of hostile foreign encirclement. was regarded as a mere sop.6 Having emerged from the Cold War. it was as if the Berlin Wall had been transported to the borders of the 17th-century tsardom of Muscovy. but it was not a disinterested facilitator.7 The notion of Russia's becoming isolated as a result of NATO admitting new member states in Central and Eastern Europe is a closer description of a deeper truth.
Officially described as ensuring equal proximity with all other power centers 9. The problem that Russia has with NATO enlargement is a problem of its own international identity. it was gradually evolving into a primarily antiAmerican. or even anti-Western concept. Russia-as-Eurasia Revisited In the words of a witty Russian scholar-turned-politician8. but it became known as the Primakov doctrine. Russia simply cannot withdraw again into some kind of "splendid isolation. The official concept appeared under the rubric of the multipolar world that regarded Russia. the Baltic States aspiring to join. but even then it can no longer hope to have a protective shell around it. The harsh reality is that. Fitting Russia In Central and Eastern Europe in NATO means not just the removal of the hope that sometime in the future when Russia emerges from the crisis and grows economically strong and powerful." à la the USSR. This reaction gave support to the alternative. some people in the country have been so much offended by the West spurning them that they became patriots. it will be able to restore its "natural" sphere of influence. It can decide to become marginalized. but otherwise highly traditional vision of Russia-in-the-world. and the GUUAM countries leaning toward the Alliance. and aiming at non-entangling interaction with them. This vision has many variations. as an independent pole of power and influence. with Poland already in NATO. flanked by its CIS neighbors. This concept was first developed by the Chinese.Chapter VII. Russia-as-Eurasia. there is no Eurasia left for Russia to return to. 283 . namely.
12 There is nothing new in its current reappearance. whose early hopes of doing business with the US and NATO were soon thwarted by Western defense companies' ruthless pursuit of their interests. Eurasianism. was based on the dual need to maintain NATO as a necessary bogey to build up arms against. as Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote. The most poetic description of this disappointment was given in 1920 by Alexander Blok in his famous poem "Scythians. and Iran. The accompanying "Eurasianism" of many in the military industrial complex. and to keep the countries whom the US regarded warily. The grudge against the United States now was historically preceded by the acute feeling of betrayal by Europe after the First World War and the Russian revolution. the various political forces were much more parochial in their outlook. the idea was basically the same. Despite the different ideological packaging. Integration What mattered most to Primakov was constructing a global system of checks and balances to constrain an overassertive United States. is a reaction of Russians slighted by the West. it cap- 284 . Vladimir Zhirinovsky's supporters and a number of splinter groups. such as China. which emerged from the Cold War as the most powerful nation in the annals of world history. and which was also for the first time becoming the dominant power in Eurasia. as customers. The Communist Party favored the restoration of the Soviet Union as a political slogan whose message was to contrast Soviet "normalcy" with the post-Soviet chaos. India. Against this highly pragmatic background.10 playing on the feelings of national humiliation. The surviving reactionary romantics11 toyed with the ideas of pan-Slavism or a spiritual community based on Orthodoxy." Read today.Part Three. came out in favor of the restoration of the Russian empire.
Many Russians. and more peripheral in each other's thinking. 285 .Chapter VII. Even in this case. Russia and the Central Asian states are becoming ever more distant. outside the CIS. but it also gravitates toward Europe. Disappointment with Eurasianism. Georgia and Azerbaijan have come to view Russia with deep and permanent suspicion." whom they regard as likely criminals. which has had problems with establishing a distinct national identity. The situation in Moldova is aggravated by the internal conflict that tore the country apart. for instance. The Baltic States. Fitting Russia In tures all the spirit and fury of. however. for their part. and Armenia looks to it largely as an outside protector. No Russian-led Orthodox bloc surrounded by a buffer of Muslim states. The one exception is Kazakhstan. Its elites have made their choice. mostly northern Kazakhstan. have developed phobias against all "Caucasians. The Armenians have an essentially national project. and the public is ultimately likely to follow. but it is also a major irritant for the relationship. only Belarus. however. few in either Russia or Kazakhstan imagine full-fledged integration. has indicated its desire to integrate closely with Russia. No other Newly Independent State is leaning in that direction. Ukraine is slowly but steadily avoiding violent conflicts and emerging as a nation-state within Europe. Russian opposition to NATO enlargement. is certain. religious fanatics. or unwanted immigrants.13 Of all the former Soviet republics. as envisaged by Huntington. but does this infinitely more vividly and elegantly. After a decade of conflict in the Caucasus. identify themselves as Western and stand a good chance of becoming integrated within Western structures in the medium-term. is a factor that warrants close bilateral cooperation. is likely to emerge. The presence of 6 million ethnic Russians.
which would be the most impartial one. The Customs Union includes Russia.14 The most likely candidates for this remain Bulgaria and Serbia. and Tajikistan. the transparency of intra-CIS borders ceased to be universal. the desire to join the Soviet Union is regarded as part of the legacy of the Bulgarian Communist Party. Moscow itself threatened to impose visa requirements on the citizens of Georgia and Azerbaijan. Bulgaria sided with Germany against Russia. On the other hand. the notion of the external border of the CIS is becoming less and less relevant. namely the GUUAM group and the Central Asian Union. it is conveniently forgotten that non-Communist Bulgarian elites were traditionally Western-oriented. By contrast.Part Three.15 In the former case. some combinations exclude Russia. despite Moscow's disapproval. It now longs to be in NATO and the EU. of course. would be to have Bulgaria and Serbia as part of the new Union in view of their 286 . The Collective Security Treaty also includes Armenia. of course. borders are hardening within the CIS. Another problem. Konstantin Leontiev discussed at length how Russia would manage relations among Slav nations in its own way. which has always been loyal to Moscow to the point of national self-negation. Belarus. Few things are done involving all 12 members. Sofia took a staunchly pro-Western position during the 1999 Kosovo crisis. On the contrary. Occasional attempts to go beyond the borders of the former USSR in search of territories to be integrated within a Greater Russia have a long tradition but are plainly pathetic now. In both World Wars. From 1999. Kyrgyzstan. The Russo-Belarussian Union is a bilateral affair. Kazakhstan. Integration Ten years after the demise of the USSR. Turkmenistan has totally ended its visa-free regime. Uzbekistan has made an exception only for Russia.
Their historical paths are diverging fast. It is certainly true that Russia has produced a highly original and still extremely useful model of ethnic relations.Chapter VII. unable to reconcile differences among the local Communist leaders. This option was never considered. What is more doubtful is the notion that this affinity can be a solid basis for new integration within the boundaries of the former Soviet Union. The resolution of the Serbian parliament in the spring of 1999 to seek accession to the Union of Russia and Belarus illustrated the potential dangers for Russia of engaging too seriously in the hopeless pursuit for a time long past.16 Russia and the World of Islam There is a tradition of regarding the Slavic-Orthodox and the Turkic-Moslem worlds inside Russia as an example of inter-ethnic and inter-confessional integration. Fitting Russia In historical competition in the Balkans. which is exemplified in creation of a durable supra-ethnic identity. of course. Surprised by this move by President Milosevic. 287 . Stalin himself had to drop his plan for a Balkans federation. Moscow had to postpone the consideration of that request until after the end of NATO's air war against Yugoslavia. for Belgrade's purpose was to get Russia involved in its conflict with NATO. Reintegration of the economies and harmonization of the political systems of the Soviet successor states versus their common fall into barbarism is a false dilemma. The post-Soviet experience of Russia and the newly independent Muslim states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan is vastly different. This is one of the most important and useful pieces of imperial heritage to be carried over into the post-imperial age.
Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. such as General Pavel Grachev. The alarmists. Some analysts 288 . are Muslim. who sounded the alert over the threat of "Islamic fundamentalism" emanating across the Afghan border into Tajikistan and capable of provoking a domino effect all across Central Asia. it is a major historical challenge to the Russian Federation to learn to live with the revitalized world of Islam both on Russia's southern periphery and within its own boundaries. however. the Russian military presence in Tajikistan was described in terms of erecting a barrier to a large-scale drug trade that provided resources for Muslim extremists. Both Georgia and Armenia are Christian. Russia's Dagestan and Azerbaijan are populated by Muslims. Russian commentators and even politicians occasionally fall victim to the temptation to regard Russia as the ultimate barrier between the world of Christianity and Europe and that of Islam or Asia. In the mid-1990s.Part Three. reaching almost from the Kazakh border into the very heart of European Russia. there is very little at present that would make this construct possible. this was the tune sung by both Russian Westernizers. and some military figures. such as Andrei Kozyrev. talk about an "Islamic wedge" that would tear Russia apart from the North Caucasus to the Arctic Ocean. In the early 1990s. The southern borders of Russia do not follow any clear civilizational boundaries. Integration Thus. despite the intellectual constructs of those who see Russia as a Slavo-Turkic empire and the rightful descendant of the Eurasian realm of Genghis Khan. while northern Kazakhstan is mostly Russian. let alone stable. while most of the Russian republics in the North Caucasus are Muslim. This follows in the tradition of the cliched self-characterization of Russians as the "saviors of Europe" from the Mongol hordes. Moreover.
from the Balkans to Crimea to the Caucasus. Alternatively. Fitting Russia In saw the conflict in Dagestan and the second Chechen war in the late 1990s as a threat to Western civilization. the goal was to turn two of the West's potential adversaries. Turkey is seen by these same conspiracy theorists as another trouble-maker allied to the US while pursuing its own agenda of imposing Turkish domination over the whole of the Turkic world. one which. Russia and the Islamic world. against which Russia was fighting on its own territory. and away from the ghosts of the Ottoman Empire and the mirage of PanTurkism. may be tempted to capitalize on Russia's weakness and to change the balance in its favor. so that their long border became a permanent battlefield. into mortal enemies. 289 . there are conspiracy theorists who see Russia's problems with militant Islam as the result of a plot hatched by the United States which in its turn is trying to divert the anger and fury of the Muslim world away from American actions in Iraq and Washington's longstanding support for Israel.Chapter VII. and even reaching as far as Sakha (Yakutia) in eastern Siberia. Occasionally the Islamic world is perceived in Russia as a more or less coherent power center. like the West. What is not publicly recognized is that America's persistent effort to get the European Union to accept Turkey as a candidate for membership also meets the Russian interest of confirming that country's secular identity and directing the Turks' energy toward European integration. According to the Russian "discoverers" of such a plot. and as international terrorism sponsored by Muslim extremists. Russia's physical weakening has invited Islamist activists into the areas that had heretofore been closed to them. the Volga region to Central Asia.
The Far Eastern Europe In contrast to Russia's southern periphery. There is virtually nothing in the Russian Far eastern borderlands that would remind one of the proximity of China or Japan. its easternmost one does represent a clear civilizational divide. the areas around Lake Baikal. Dagestan. the Russian-Mongolian one. Russia's prime task is integrating its own Moslems and making them feel as Russians. Integration The hard fact remains that since 1979 the Soviet and Russian military have only had one enemy on the battlefield: a rebel or a guerilla fighting under the green banner of Islam in Afghanistan. are real dividing lines. The likely future military contingencies point in the same direction. The Sino-Russian border and. which were later Russified. and along both the Amur and the Ussuri rivers. 290 . Thus.Part Three. Indeed. The fighting in Kyrgyzstan in August-September 1999 highlighted the rising Islamist challenge to the Central Asian regimes. especially that of Uzbekistan. and Tajikistan. This is a tall enough order. Chechnya. In the Balkans. cannot be considered in principle as a viable proposition. to a smaller extent. restoring Russian domination over Turan or even a symbiosis with it. A heavy and steady influx of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians from European Russia throughout most of the 20th century gave the region its strong Eastern European flavor. Kosovo Albanians give the Russian peacekeepers a hostile reception. which have been turning back to Moscow for military support. as well as the Sakhalin and the Kuril islands were sparsely populated by various indigenous tribes.
there are fears that. the Russian/Soviet political. Shopping tours to the neighboring Chinese cities and Japanese ports provide economic opportunities to thousands of local Russians. It was as if the Russian Far East was turning its back on neighboring Asia. On the one hand. Second. they were small in number. Koreans. All this had serious implications for the region. and the police regime lax and prone to corruption. via Moscow. which have guaranteed the provinces uninterrupted supplies of foodstuffs and cheap consumer goods. the Russian provinces established lifelines to China. economic. since the time of the Russo-Japanese war in the early 20th century Russia has perceived the demographic pressure from across the border as a threat. and cultural influence in Mongolia was overwhelming. and. and South Korea. Ironically.Chapter VII. Third. Japanese further increased that perception. Its lines of communication with the countries just across the border — which often were merely a few dozen kilometers from the region's principal cities – lay. the Russian-speaking Mongolian elites identified themselves with Eastern Europe rather than Asia. an outpost of Moscow. The forcible expulsion or resettlement in the 1930s of several hundred thousand ethnic Chinese. Japan. Mongolia itself had been a Russian protectorate since 1911. should the borders remain open and transparent. Its role was that of a fortress. Fitting Russia In However. On the other hand. The explosion in contacts with the outside world and the simultaneous dramatic weakening of contacts inside the country that immediately followed the collapse of the Soviet Union brought mixed results. First. This was abruptly ended in 1991. the Chinese and the Koreans will establish a 291 . in 1945. The Mongolians were hardly a problem. five to eight thousand kilometers away.
but it is not seen as either an Asian country or a power in Asia. but its elites have basically made their choice. Integration permanent presence in the area. Even Ser- 292 . the principal challenge that Russia perceives in Europe is the growth of the West — both through its internal consolidation and outward expansion. Toward a Europe Without Dividing Lines? As previously discussed. Finding its proper place there. Ukraine is proceeding cautiously. In 1998. The European Union. NATO. Russia became a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC). Russia faces a stark choice on the shores of the Pacific — either it will transform itself into a modest but viable economic player or it will continue to lose ground figuratively. The pressure from its more competitive neighbors promises the Far East interesting times. and the United States have become poles of attraction so powerful that there are practically no countries that wish to opt out or drop out of its institutions. At the beginning of the 21st century. the mounting challenge in the east pushes Russia toward Europe. Russia is virtually absent from the region. Virtually all countries in Eastern and Central Europe and the South Caucasus are gravitating to this organized West — at least politically and economically. As with the continuing turmoil in the south.Part Three. Russia's exposure to Asia has rapidly grown in the last decade. and later start losing it literally. which could spell the end of the Russian Far East. however. but its economic role there is negligible. is not an easy task. with the partial exception of its immediate AsiaPacific neighbors. despite the obvious tensions between the two.
America. One is that this would remove the last obstacles — in the form of 293 . and Russia. Fitting Russia In bia. Russia's only neighbor in the West will be the European Union (and the EU-leaning Ukraine). but its capabilities for intervening anywhere in the Euro-Atlantic area will have increased substantially with America's increasing technological lead confirming it as a global military power in a class of its own. As to NATO. Rather.17 This statement may be right. information and military reality. This cannot be done through expanding the relationship with NATO alone. then. once President Milosevic leaves the stage. but the implications drawn from it are often wrong. it is in Russia's supreme national security interest to strive toward full demilitarization of its relations with the West. Russia will need to seriously consider applying for NATO membership. A confrontation with NATO is something Russia cannot afford and should never attempt. Thus. The Union's presence to the south of Russia's borders will be much less pronounced but clearly discernible. All of this will be a powerful political. is widely expected to fill in its applications in Brussels. At some point. cannot be done without closer ties. economic. it will probably not expand that far afield. What. however. Vacillation between half-hearted partnership and token confrontation is a waste of both resources and good will. the buffer zone separating Russia from the organized West is shrinking fast. should Russia be doing? A leading Russian commentator characterized NATO enlargement as the beginning of a new geopolitical epoch for Europe. Raising the hypothetical possibility of Russian membership in NATO provokes criticisms of two kinds.Chapter VII. financial. It is also frustrating and disorienting. Already in the mediumterm. The demilitarization of relations.
References to the new military imbalance in Europe. the Poles and other Central Europeans have grown more confident about their national security. but they totally ignore the nuclear deterrence factor. and even Georgia and Azerbaijan.18 If anything. The second is that this would lead to long-term tensions with China. References to the new possibilities for power projection deep into European Russia are more serious on the face of it. where Russia is outnumbered and outgunned by NATO by a ratio of 4:1 or 3:1. through its system of national and regional ceilings and ceilings on the deployment of foreign forces as well as an elaborate system of verification that there can be no massing of forces that would threaten any country in Europe. and Hungary have been members of the Alliance since the spring of 1999. of course. and more ready for building a new lasting relationship with Russia — from the position. all of which have indicated their willingness to join. but it is as present as ever in Russia's relations with the West. which would perceive Russia's membership in NATO as an element of America's encirclement policy. and so far little has changed in that strategic direction for Russia. The modified treaty on conventional forces in Europe (CFE) provides material reassurances. of a Western country. the Baltic States. Integration objections from Moscow — to the accession to the alliance of the former Soviet republics. Poland. None of the dire predictions about the consequences of membership has come true. The issue of NATO enlargement all the way to the borders of Russia calls for new thinking about both NATO and Russia. are not very convincing. 294 .Part Three. the Czech Republic. This factor does not work along Russia's southern periphery. Ukraine.
troops deployments or in the familiar form of nuclear weapons. membership of all of Scandinavia in NATO would be a far more significant development than the issue of the Baltic States. if Moscow tried and likely failed to prevent this. Seen from whatever angle. Last.S. The hard truth is that. Russia would then either have to resort to token and costly "countermeasures" or enter into a more serious confrontation that would seriously compromise or distort its domestic reform agenda. Latvians. since they are difficult to defend. While some Russians think they can still prevent the Baltic States from entering into NATO.19 Owing to their geographic position.Petersburg. and Lithuania are considered the ideal staging area for air and cruise missile attacks deep inside Russia. should these countries make such a decision. whether by means of symbolic U. or Estonians would bring the Alliance across the former Soviet border — thus eliminating a highly sensitive psychological barrier. Russia's objections notwithstanding. Also. while Estonia's membership would bring NATO to the doorstep of St.Chapter VII. the Baltic States are more likely than not to be invited to join the Alliance during the first decade of the new century. their security within NATO would have to be guaranteed by some kind of trip wire mechanism. Estonia. A decision to invite the Lithuanians. Latvia. 295 . One lesson from the previous campaign to stop the Central Europeans from becoming members of NATO is that. a major political crisis with the West would follow. Fitting Russia In The Baltic membership in NATO is believed to be an extremely difficult and painful issue for Russia. Lithuanian membership would turn Kaliningrad into a latter-day version of West Berlin. they must admit that they are powerless to bar Sweden and Finland from accession.
Although the Charter of Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine is a much-reducedsize model of the NATO-Russia Founding Act. in February 2000 the North Atlantic Council held its firstever meeting outside Brussels. and more broadly with its political institutions. This is where the Balkans-type scenario. To some in Russia this would be a golden opportunity to "liberate" eastern. and see the prospect of Ukraine's joining NATO almost as a casus belli. could lead to large-scale violence. which they see as the West's ultimate goal. and even war. Its advantage over Russia lies in the fact that it has made its basic choice. from pro-Western "Galician rule. There is the potential for a crisis to threaten the internal stability of Ukraine. in Kiev. while Rus- 296 . the economy. they argue. feared by Russian military planners and some civilian strategists.Part Three. the Uniate. however. but its willingness to cooperate with the Alliance is real. Having advanced so far." Afterward. Ukraine's prospects as a potential member are remote at best. Such a crisis. will be in a position to finish Russia off. and society are similar to Russia's. into which Russia and the West would probably be drawn. and central Ukraine. the NATO issue will weigh heavily on Russo-Ukrainian relations. Integration Russian traditionalists perceive "NATO's expansion to the Baltics" as a dangerous provocation. It is as far as Russia is from meeting NATO standards. To recognize that fact. and growing. all deemed to be proRussian. anti-Russian province of Galicia would be amputated for the sake of the remaining Orthodox Ukraine. Many of Ukraine's problems with its military. the relationship has been vibrant and expanding. Even if Kiev remains a partner rather than a member. may actually become a reality. as well as Crimea. southern. the Alliance.
geopolitical game. It is not difficult to see China's interest in Russia's staying outside of NATO. throughout the 1990s Russia has been more than a loyal neighbor to China. and even in opposition to it. At the same time. however. Russia is even less interested than China in the resumption of military confrontation along the long border. providing it with modern arms and technology and supporting it politically on such issues as Taiwan and Theater Missile Defense.Chapter VII. were to decide in favor of joining the alliance. 297 . An equal relationship coveted by the Russian leadership can be more readily achieved within a partnership framework than by means of some version of a critical dialogue. A NATO that included both Ukraine and Russia would be a new NATO indeed. Russia should by all means avoid becoming a pawn in a U. although a breach of faith by either partner can not be ruled out later on. Russian-Western reciprocal demilitarization of relations should not be a problem to China.S. both for the Alliance and Russia. it would make a lot of sense for Moscow and Kiev to agree that the two largest Eastern European nations seek NATO membership jointly and simultaneously. Fitting Russia In sia hasn't. On the other hand. nor can the temptation in Brussels to play off the differences between Moscow and Kiev. If Russia. however. However. there are enough incentives to keep the process on track and come to a final conclusion. The Russia/NATO-China issue was first raised in 1994 when Moscow was considering joining the Partnership for Peace program. It cannot be emphasized more strongly that NATO enlargement is a relatively peripheral matter. What has been and remains of central importance is the nature and quality of the relationship between the two. By the same token. This plan is obviously risky. By itself.
Or even two. Some already see the internal consolidation and enlargement of the EU as a potential threat to Russia. Russia has reached a moment of truth in its relations with the West. and never officially defined. Europe's foreign and security policy objectives may occasionally conflict with Russia's. the issue of Russia's strategic boundaries. The European Union. potential allies. The EU-Russia relationship. currently consisting of 15 members.20 Finally. while it is less controversial than the Russia-NATO one. The emergence of a common European security policy and a separate defense identity could ultimately make the original trading bloc into a more traditional geopolitical player. in the case of the second war in Chechnya. and partners has to be reexamined. It faces the hard question of which external threats are realistic in the near and medium-term: a Balkans-type air invasion from the West.Part Three. Thus. that it can be an even harsher and more consistent critic of Russian human rights practices than the United States. Russia will not be able to man concurrently three strategic fronts. and a formidable one at that. It is the only political-economic "large space" into which Russia can integrate once her its "large space" — Eurasia — has ceased to exist. Integration Russian foreign and security policy should not be held hostage to Beijing. equally calls for hard thinking and bold decisions. is already considering applications from 13 other coun- 298 . or a very vaguely. The European Union has also indicated. At present and in the foreseeable future. The European Union is not merely the largest Russian trading partner and potentially the principal foreign investor. large-scale conventional threat in the Far East. the multiple contingencies along the southern perimeter.
of course. Russia. The decision to seek accession would have to be a unilateral one. but are being disqualified for the time being for obvious economic reasons. Russian membership in the European Union. new Orthodox members. Roman-Germanic institution. This process can be arrested and later reversed only by a conscious Russian decision in favor of Europe. It should make accession to the European Union a long-term policy goal. No effort 299 . A Europe that includes Bulgaria and Turkey as future candidates cannot close its doors to Russia — at least not on cultural grounds. is not on offer at present. and a few former Soviet republics with several hundred thousand ethnic Russians living there — Europe's first Eurorussians. born as a Western Protestant/ Catholic. would like to be in that category. such as Ukraine and Moldova. Fitting Russia In tries.Chapter VII. but 50 years is too long a period to be meaningful to those who are active today. The enlargement of the European Union has the double effect of making Europe both closer to Russia geographically and more distant in terms of the widening economic and social gap. Thus. Within the next ten to fifteen years. Russia faces the prospect of progressive marginalization. Under these conditions. however. This means eventually creating an uninterrupted boundary line between Russia and the EU from the Barents to the Black Sea. a 30-year time frame should be advised instead. and will not be in the foreseeable future. many of them in Central and Eastern Europe. not predicated on the European Union's stated willingness to consider the idea some time in the future. This potential enlargement changes the very character of the European Union. Achieving this goal may well take the efforts of two generations. the Union will include several Slav states. Other countries. should make its basic choice now.
and humanitarian practices with those of the European Union.21 From Nikolai Danilevsky on. political. Russia will also need to recognize that its place in Europe will rest on its ability to integrate. Russians have viewed integration as a process of making an ever larger Russia. Nowadays. Even a 30-year period is not waiting time. for Russia will need to adapt to the reality of the expanding Union anyway." To other thoughtful observers there is no realistic alternative to joining the expanding West other than Russia's being the proverbial ostrov nevezeniya. but time to be used to harmonize Russia's economic. Whereas the central European countries may aspire to become part of "second-tier Europe. will have to be based on an accepting post-Cold War realities. however. exclusive nature of the contemporary West as a "golden billion of people. Traditionally. which Russia didn't write but will have to honor. Integration should be wasted. What passes for "Western" values has a univer- 300 . an island of bad luck. This process is now over. legal. which was allegedly an obstacle to Europe's and the world's progress." Russia can only hope to get a thirdclass ticket. and betrayal of its unique identity. and observing the rules of the game. At the same time. not on its political-military influence beyond its borders. and in its place there is a need to integrate Russia into something that is much larger than Russia. both Communist and nationalist ideologues in Russia refer to the increasingly closed. Russia's identity and its culture will not suffer. its "civilizational rejection" of Russia. such as America's current global preponderance. The notion of Russia's joining Europe is criticized as capitulation.Part Three.22 Joining Europe. there has been a Russian tradition of blaming Europe for its anti-Russian bias. which is where the West sees its proper place.
Other Euro-regions could include St. This pluralism — not only nach Innen. and in the Baltic and Black Sea basins already provide useful frameworks at the middle level. such as the development of central Russia.Chapter VII. and Bosnia will constitute Muslim elements of a Greater Europe. Sub-regional cooperation in the Arctic Barents region. This pro-Europe choice. Murmansk. It is among the elites. France. Russia as part of Europe does not contradict other national projects. So will Sakha and Buryatia. Albania. core national identities. the inclusion of Islam within Russia. At the micro level.23 Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. and the development of a formula for good relations with the Muslim world out- 301 . stress will have to be laid on trans-border cooperation. and the northern regions of Norway and Finland. which the rest of the continent can and will accommodate. In geopolitical terms. while transformed.Petersburg and the areas around the Gulf of Finland. Germany. which are not "pro-Asian. Western-leaning countries such as Turkey. and other EU countries. On the other hand. both staunchly secular. parts of Karelia." For its part. Europa-Bindung — an analogy to West Germany's post-1945 Westbindung — is likely to be supported by the bulk of the population of Russia. are not being abolished. not the electorate. and Finland. Together with the Moslem populations of Britain. Fitting Russia In sal ring to it. but nach Aussen as well — is not being diminished. will move toward Europe economically rather than toward some Islamic economic model. Europe's overriding idea — next to human rights — is diversity. Kaliningrad is a natural laboratory for Russia-EU integration. that anti-Americanism is strong. Becoming part of a Greater Europe can only be the result of a sustained long-term effort.
Such as Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.19-31. 1. it was thought at the time. #10. If its meaning is indeed "a state that is self-sufficient. the Russian leadership considered its western borders to be secure. Integration side of it. A Wedged Bear in a Great Tightness: Understanding the Constraints of Russian Power. Alexei Arbatov cited the figure of 80 million. (Winter 1997). For Russia at the beginning of the 21st century. see Alexander S.Garnett. p. in: Voprosy filosofii. #10. The situation on Russia's borders. NVO.5-20. Panarin. Vol. NOTES 1 Sherman W. Russian version: Pro et Contra." as Gennady Zyuganov succinctly put it. Some military analysts even suggested that new members of NATO would be encouraged to display "intolerance and aggres- 2 3 4 5 302 . p. No. p. This was perceived as an attempt at "isolating" Russia. because it is not easy to define. which Moscow unsuccessfully sought to prevent. For a very thoughtful analysis of this historic disappointment.1. Serious questions began to be asked in Moscow only in 1993 after the Clinton administration decided in principle to open the Alliance to new members. The Russian word derzhava is difficult to translate. Russia's new frontier is not Europe — it is Russia itself.").2. Immediately following the end of the Cold War." ("A 'Second Europe' or the 'Third Rome'? Paradoxes of Europeanism in Contemporary Russia. 1997. There are also special projects for the North Caucasus and the Russian North. or the reversal of the erosion of Russia's position in the Far East and Siberia. the domestic agenda is incomparably more important than the foreign policy one.Part Three. 1996. March 15-21. would drastically change. "'Vtoraya Evropa' ili 'tretii Rim'? Paradoksy evropizma v sovremennoi Rossii. The Russian military argued that the enlargement of the North Atlantic alliance would fundamentally upset the strategic balance in Europe.24 then the epoch of derzhava is definitely over.
a one-time Zyuganov adviser-turnedmonarchist and head of the "Spiritual Heritage" movement. ex-General Staff analyst. Sergei Kortunov. May 28." Nezavisimaya gazeta. 1996. p.163-168. p. Rossiya v obvale. op. Similar. cit." Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn." In general. it was argued. 13 Samuel Huntington. book 1. Not only would NATO's "war-making military pressure assets" be moved closer to Russia's borders. Fitting Russia In siveness" vis-a-vis Russia. 7 8 9 10 Including Alexei Podberyozkin. the situation along the borders would become more tense.1. but even more acute and complicated problems.26-40. "Problemy. Lastly. p. The proposed military countermeasures along the border predictably included strengthening the Border Troops. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. 12 Alexander Solzhenitsyn. the Baltic States would press their border claims even harder. p..130 Vladimir Lukin. kotorye nado reshat uzhe seichas. 11 E. "Politika Rossii na poroge tretyego tysyacheletiya. Norway might drop its self-imposed restrictions regarding military deployments and exercises in the vicinity of Russian territory. Emboldened by the collective support of the West..1. A Reader. ensuring closer coordination between FPS border districts and MOD military districts. with the FPS gaining operational control over MOD forces and assets. in the Presidential Address on National Security to the Federal Assembly. E. a leading Deputy in the first Russian parliament.44-45. (Cf. would arise from NATO's enlargement "in the direction of the Black Sea. Reader. Vol. beefing up the Armed Forces units deployed near the western border. 1996.Chapter VII. Oleg Rumyantsev. and motor rifle units.2). June 25. such as army and tactical aviation. Narochnitskaya. 303 . p. Center for Operational-Border Studies. a Yabloko leader and a former ambassador to the United States and long-serving Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma. 1996. p. 6 Natalia A. more intra-CIS military coordination was urged. #9.g. Lieutenant General Sergei Bogdanov. Kaliningrad would not only be an isolated enclave: Germany may ultimately claim it back.g. Moscow: 1998. so that border incidents and even conflicts could not be ruled out. Chief..249. Vol. Quoted from: Vneshnyaya politika i bezopasnost sovremennoi Rossii.
Integration 14 Konstantin Leontiev. These authors insist on Russia's unique succession right regarding all arms control treaties and agreements. Slavyanstvo. 304 . "Why. 21 See Alexander S. Anatoly Adamishin. 1996.4. Rossiya. p. 2000 showed that more than a third of Russian citizens (37%) favor the development of cooperation with NATO." Nezavisimaya gazeta. Panarin. Sergei Kortunov." replied Baburin.32-42. Vostok.Part Three. 17 Alexei Pushkov. (Cf.. February 6.158. Bezopasnost: rossiyskiy vybor. 1999.257). p. op. Reader 1. p. 19 Two Russian authors. cit. of course. Reader 1. "Novyi evropeyskii poryadok. October 24. 1997. 1999 23 A public opinion poll held by the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) in late January. p. the military strategic space that Russia inherited from the Soviet Union is its successor state. and thus Moscow's droit de regard with respect to third-party presence on the former Soviet territory. p. Great Russia. 15 Not only Podberyozkin. 16 It has been reported that during a 1999 meeting with the Russian Duma's delegation in Belgrade. repeat in their writings verbatim the same thesis: the entire territory of the USSR with its 1975 borders is the zone of Russia's responsibility and security. Natalia Narochnitskaya. Slobodan Milosevic asked Sergei Baburin. "U nas net soyuznikov. Alexei Arbatov. 20 Periodic crises over Taiwan (such as in 1996 and 2000) indicate to Moscow the need to display some caution and avoid unnecessary and dangerous involvement. 18 The only really unpleasant surprise for Moscow was the sudden expulsion by Warsaw in February 2000 of nine Russian diplomats accused of espionage. "Well." Nezavisimaya gazeta. Moscow: EPI Center. Sergei Kortunov and Natalia Narochnitskaya. no net i vragov. Moscow: "Respublika" Publishers." Milosevic retorted.1. "Vtoraya Evropa ili Tretii Rim?" 22 Cf. what he thought the name of the new state should be. I was thinking of Greater Serbia. a Deputy Duma Speaker and a leading supporter of the Russian-BelarussianSerbian unification.135. but also Yeltsin mentioned Bulgaria as a possible future member of the Russian-led confederation.
Only 6% favor building an anti-NATO bloc led by Russia. Fitting Russia In or even Russia's membership in the alliance. 66% replied "positive or mostly positive. p. To the question about their attitudes toward the United States. Over one-quarter (28%) of the respondents prefer neutrality. Only half that number opposes cooperation with NATO. Moscow: Informpechat.Chapter VII." Cf. (Russia Is My Motherland). Despite the government's highly critical attitude toward NATO following the air raids in the Balkans. The ratings for their attitude toward the American people are even higher — 78% responded: "very positive and mostly positive. 24 Gennady Zyuganov. Rossiya — rodina moya: idiologiya gosudarstvennogo patriotizma. 1996.50 305 . March 7." versus 10% who said "negative or very negative. "negative or mostly negative"." and only 22%. 2000. this is the highest indication of support over the previous four years. Trud.
Conclusion AFTER EURASIA .
the internal crisis in Russia has eliminated the internal prerequisite for extending the life of the transcontinental empire. but there is much more to the contemporary world than borders. which changed both its shape and much of its substance. In the political sphere. with the economy and technology coming to the fore. First of all. the international environment changed profoundly." discovered that its resources are vastly inadequate for continuing its traditional role. suddenly but finally. In the past decade. In the year B 309 . and the creation of a genuine federation. "No torment is deeper than that of being a former superpower — unless perhaps it is that of being a fallen superpower which also undergoes the transition to a market economy. The end of Eurasia came about for several reasons.orders define a country on a map. "a nuclear giant but an economic dwarf. it is safe to say that not only autocracy and totalitarianism. Russia-Eurasia is over. Russia. especially those between nation-states. Nearly as important.1 One should add to that the transition from autocracy to democracy. civil society building. but also rigid authoritarianism is a thing of the past. and culture (the "civilizational factor") becoming more salient. The relative importance of the principal factors of state power was altered." wrote a leading American expert on Russia. Russia has gone through an unparalleled catastrophe.
The Communist Party's nationalities policy created national-territorial units that were given the status of proto-states. which passed the crucial test of the transfer of power from the first freely elected president to the second one. However. with all its positive and negative implications. Thus.Conclusion. The Soviet Union helped modernize and develop nations along Russia's borderlands. Russians are getting used to the country's unprecedented openness. Russia. not the return of imperial greatness. for all its ups and downs. An important dimension of this pluralism is the rise and consolidation of regional interests. the formal dissolution of the USSR was the final and logical step — although it could have come in different forms. the idea that the outside world is hostile and poses the threat of permanent insecurity is receding. but it can become. which spells the end of the unitary state structure. and raised the self-consciousness of their fledgling elites. To both the populace and the elites. What the bulk of the electorate wants is the improvement of its economic and social conditions. a true federation. property ownership is also crudely pluralistic. This had predictable consequences. In the economic sphere. is not yet a full-fledged democracy. this was the natural result of a long process. Neither the elites 310 . and had vastly different results. While the disintegration of the Eurasian empire came suddenly and as a shock to most people. Russia will probably not turn into a loose confederacy. continuing along the path toward democracy. it is genuinely pluralistic and. Even within the USSR. In principle. over time. which is still on the minds of the traditional political elite. "real socialism" within different Soviet republics had its distinct characteristics. the mobilization of all available resources for some government policy project cannot be guaranteed. After Eurasia 2000.
These forces do not originate from states. All have a direct impact on Russia. They are forming an international environment in which the primacy of the state may survive — in the much watered-down form of primus inter pares — but in which the state will no longer have a monopoly over international relations. The decline of Russia's population and the migration from the Far East to European Russia. After Eurasia nor the people in the newly independent states can be expected to try to reverse the process. including the former Soviet space and Russia itself. which emerged as genuine welfare states.Conclusion. but it was very specially felt in the 311 . The United States emerged as the only truly global power. with incomparable capability to influence developments anywhere in the world. globalization has opened up Russia-Eurasia to powerful forces operating at the world level. Last but not least. This challenge is of double significance for both Russia's external and internal environment. breaking an essentially Moscow-dominated pattern of relations and outstripping Russia's gross domestic product — and soon surpassing its per capita GDP. proceeded to form both a more cohesive and more inclusive union. The countries of the European Union. or of short duration. None of the factors listed above is trivial. compared with China's huge demographic "overhang. The impact of globalization has been tremendous throughout the former Soviet Union." is another development with serious long-term implications. Lastly. its neighbors were becoming stronger and more active. Even as Russia grew exceptionally weak. China made a great economic leap forward in comparison with Russia. Russia faces a historical revival of Islam both as a religion and as a political doctrine. which challenged Russia's position in Europe much more than NATO enlargement.
Conclusion. or will there be more. will the current Russian borders move again in the near. After Eurasia formerly tightly closed Russo-Eurasian borderlands such as the Caspian basin. the Russian Far East. and Kaliningrad. there are three kinds of options for postimperial Russia as it enters the 21st century: revisionism. and its borders would move to and fro. and will block its reconstitution.to medium-term? Will the Russian elites adopt revisionist policies out of sheer frustration? If so. it has become clear that "Eurasia" was never a symbiosis of "Europe" and "Asia" within some cohesive and well-integrated large space.2 Its fate depended on Russia's. Rather. 312 . "What is Russia now? Where will it fit in?" Basically. which suggests that its own brand of national socialism is getting ready to engulf a humiliated and bitter country? Most importantly. it was the extension of Russia and a function of its power at any given historical moment. which eventually brought about the demise of the empire. Is the geopolitical earthquake over. Mount Ararat and the Hindukush in the south. In its prime — when it stretched from the Elbe and Danube in the west. in Moscow as well as in the borderlands. but extremely diverse culturally. in which direction. and under what circumstances? Is there substance to the notion of a Weimar Russia. questions remain. As a result of these profound changes. and was washed by the waters of the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan in the east — it was monolithic in military strategic terms. alternatively. the way Russia's borders are eventually drawn will provide an answer to the fundamental questions. tremors? Has the current period of reshaping and restructuring Russian territory reached its end in this historical cycle? Or. Even if this much is accepted. It was these forces of diversity. reasonably united politically and economically. and equally powerful.
The union with Belarus is thus viewed as only the first step." a new eastern Orthodox empire. both in the vicinity of Russia's borders and further afield. waiting for the right moment to step forward and engulf the entire country. Kazakhstan. and new "voluntary" accession by Armenia. to be followed by a "trilateral union" with Yugoslavia. 6 A much scaled-down version is a Russia-plus. and potentially other post-Soviet states. The revisionist credo is that Russia is "doomed" to be an empire. and an eventual "second reunification" with Ukraine. Each of these options has implications for Russia's emerging political system and its international role. Options for Russia Revisionist Russia? The pain that Russia has endured from its transformation has been so excruciating that nationalism and revisionism are widely feared to be just around the corner. the Russian Federation absorbing parts of the neighboring states where the ethnic Russians form a majority 313 . i.Conclusion. Kyrgyzstan.5 A more "intellectual" and decidedly romantic version of revisionism is pan-Slavism with its delusion of creating a "second Constantinople. 3 It confidently postulates that "Russia will rise again. the failure to hold on to it is tantamount to national suicide."4 In simple policy terms.e. even regional power status for Russia would be no less than "suicidal. or creative adjustment. Eurasianism means the restoration of Russian domination over the entire Soviet/imperial space and the adjacent traditional spheres of influence." To the adherents of this view. After Eurasia disintegration.
Russia. humiliated in the west through NATO enlargement and the western intervention in the Balkans. It views America. according to this logic. reconstitution rather than revisionism. or where the local separatists align themselves with Moscow (Abkhazia. and Central Europe. The first task of this alliance would be to wrestle away the rimlands from US domination and turn them into anti-American allies. and is prepared to enter into an ad hoc coalition with any other power center.Conclusion. Europe. and Iran. A less extreme version. northern Kazakhstan). This model implies competition and conflict with the West in the former Soviet space. Transdniestria). revisionists propose creating a new Eastern bloc made up of Russia and the CIS. is embodied in the concept of multipolarity. and calls for strategic independence without confrontation. India. For these geopolitically conscious thinkers and actors. and China as both competitors and partners. China. it took Germany two successive defeats to leave the well-trodden track of militarism and aggression. After Eurasia (Crimea. can and should turn to the East — in the manner of the 19th century Foreign Minister Alexander Gorchakov8 — and not 314 . This would mean the reincarnation of both the Mongol empire and the short-lived Sino-Soviet alliance. Such an attempt cannot be ruled out. following the balance of power pattern of 18th century Europe. Thus. To counter the immense capabilities and resources of the West. the Balkans. this "Eurasian dream" should be realized by confronting America with what it fears most: the nightmare of a Eurasia united by a single power structure. South Ossetia. In the 20th century.7 Revisionism's irrational response to a very real challenge carries the danger of trying to reach the impossible at the cost of suffering an even more crushing defeat.
This notion equally overstates the willingness of the Newly Independent States to harken back to the former imperial power. It is highly significant that the failure of the last attempt at reintegration occurred on the watch of the thoughtful and pragmatic Yevgeny Primakov. and so are the economic systems. the Customs Union. Moscow's multipolarity naturally views the Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia's most enlightened and exceedingly experienced Eurasianist. A medium-sized country with a mediocre level of development is saddled with the mentality of a great power and world leader. this "non-Russian Eurasia. or closer cooperation between the remaining members of the Collective Security Treaty. India." as the building site of a new integrationist project. The option of "reimperialization of Russia" — a term coined by Henry Kissinger9 — is virtually foreclosed. After Eurasia only build alliances with China. Without a Russian leading role within the CIS. and Iran. More importantly. in other words. Russia's natural resources are vast. 315 . And the failure was not due to his lack of effort. merely confirms the futility of a Eurasia-wide integration. Intra-CIS trade flows have been steadily declining throughout the 1990s. Political regimes in the 12 countries are diverging. they are not crucial to the nation's standing in the post-industrial age. The security challenges they face call for very different responses. it assumes a capacity that is simply lacking in today's Russia." Unfortunately for the authors and supporters of this idea. The country's principal macroeconomic measurements are too modest for such an ambitious project. but also promote ties with the former Soviet republics. there can be no Russian "pole. Examples to the contrary — be it Russian-Belarussian integration.Conclusion. but they demand substantial investment to extract and deliver to the market.
traditional territorial thinking is unlikely to yield positive results. It could well be that if central authority in Russia continues to be "privatized" by selfish vested interests. After Eurasia Multipolarity also attaches undue prominence to traditional geopolitics. they strongly support a bilateral approach to any pretense of integration "of the twelve. It is possible to elevate geopolitics to a new mantra. His European counterpart's vision of Russia was that of Muscovy west of the Urals. and is incapable of reintegrating its former borderlands. Russia's Disintegration Usually. a prominent Russian intellectual predicted Russia's disintegration within 10 to 15 years. carries an unexpected bonus with it: Russia has lost ground. to the detriment of geoeconomics. making the unity of the country a very tenuous concept.Conclusion. Thus."10 It is not difficult to see that multipolarity is a precarious concept. parts of the Russian Federation could gravitate in different directions. but impossible to restore imperialism. and intellectual elites increasingly look to the CIS as a collection of individual states of very different importance and value to Russia. Thus. Given that it is not a first-level pole itself. This. In a characteristic exchange of views on the eve of the year 2000. however. economic. Russia finds itself in the field of attraction of several major and active power centers. with Siberia under Chi- 316 . especially for a country in Russia's position. The more farsighted members of the Russian political. there is no shortage of dire predictions concerning Russia's ultimate fate. but simultaneously its expanse has ceased to be a source of strength the way it was before the mid to late 20th century.
In terms of culture as well as territory. This does not mean giving out more chunks of Russian territory to any potential claimant. and the experience of the Yeltsin era. including the end of the Cold War. and governing Russia would require the art of managing these very different orientations. If Russia became a loose confederation. but rather ceasing to bemoan territorial losses related to the break-up of the USSR. there is no such thing as an ethnically purified Russia.Conclusion. the dissolution of the USSR. Russia would still join the world. and — equally importantly — the impact of globalization. but it would do so in less than one piece." which was debated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Creative Adjustment A creative response is based on an honest assessment of the lessons of the past 10 years. It is at best naïve to believe in "liberation" through self-diminution. The American scholar limited himself to the vision of a Sino-Russian war. There is no basis for a complete de-imperialization of Russia. this would be the result of a major economic catastrophe. After Eurasia nese control. not an option. made the map of Russia appear like Swiss cheese. Even more importantly. it must include the Russian/Soviet imperial experience. More broadly. it means 317 . The notion of a "(ethnic) Russian republic within the Russian Federation. In other words. Disintegration along the boundaries of the Russian regions. of course.11 If a doomsday scenario were to become a reality. An Ataturk solution — salvation through substitution of failed imperialism by vigorous nationalism — is not a credible option for Russia. its borderlands would gravitate in different directions. is a scenario. One notable lesson is the need to do away with the obsession for territory.
etc. however. The oftrepeated analogy with the Federal Republic of Germany misses an important point: Russia was not defeated in a war. Even if it is diffi- 318 . and her choice can't be reversed. Russia will probably find it hard to stop being an empire internally. On the other hand. The role of the economy in foreign policy is the way of the future. and keeping within its federal body a number of national homelands. After Eurasia dropping territorial reconstitution as an important foreign policy goal — which. are exhibiting their inadequacies and weaknesses. Russia will survive and develop. India. No historical injustice took place. which used to be a major resource of national wealth and national power. some big countries face mounting problems — Russia. its territory was not occupied by the forces of the East and the West. Russia's long lines of communication along the West-East axis. Moscow acted freely. Brazil. cultures. Singapore. is still lingering in the minds of many elite figures. The much-overused notion of great power should best be rejected or at least downplayed in view of the change in the world environment. and its long borders all require a significant investment of the national treasure. drop any pretence to an imperial role beyond its borders. in the sense of being an amalgam of a variety of ethnic groups. and its historical capital not divided into several sectors. Space and territory. without substantial natural resources that emerge as the most successful and prosperous — Japan. Iceland. or fail and stagnate. although not supported officially. It is often small-sized countries. its vast underdeveloped North. and confessions.Conclusion. It must. depending on its performance in such fields as economics and information technology. This adaptation will be made easier by the diminishing importance of geopolitical factors at the beginning of the 21st century.
joining the European Union will not be on the agenda for the foreseeable future. Russia should first "build Europe" within 319 . It means understanding globalization and finding the right niche for the country. and science. Even the traditional territorial expansion of the Russian Empire demanded a redistribution of resources away from core Russian territory toward the borderlands. The only rational option is to fully stress Russia's European identity and engineer its gradual integration into a Greater Europe. It must make its choice. It means stressing culture. its adjustment to the 21st century world. Russia stands on the boundary between the postmodern and modern and even pre-modern world. of course. but the Soviet Union's global competition with the West cost Russia even more. rather than following the opposite historical pattern of using Russia itself as a resource base for some grand design on the world arena. Today and in the foreseeable future. with all the attendant qualifications.Conclusion. The early Bolshevik promoters of the world proletarian revolution have grossly erred in this direction. a clear proEurope choice would facilitate the country's modernization. it could avoid isolation. and. education. Even then. can be realized. Still. Russia will not become. Russia will need to concentrate intently on its own domestic development. a member of Europe's core. and exploiting them. After Eurasia cult to expect Russia to emerge in the foreseeable future as a great country — which implies a measure of economic and social progress well beyond Russia's capacities — its ambition to become a successful country. and finding ways to revitalize them. Such an approach demands making foreign policy a resource for the country's internal development. This necessitates looking for Russia's comparative advantages. most importantly. However.
Conclusion. an Orthodox Russia may be more easily manipulated by the states and groups pursuing extremist policies. in order to keep its position on the Pacific." Russia should practice openness as a European country in Asia. A failure to integrate would spell Russia's marginalization and possibly its disintegration. which is the principal pillar of its internal stability. However. Across Eurasia — and this may be the only case where the notion could survive — Russia could continue to be a cultural magnet. Moreover. it will need to keep its Far Eastern doors open to foreign investment. following Samuel Huntington's notion of Russia as the core state of Orthodoxy is risky. Moreover. and could exacerbate relations with fellow Orthodox countries. but it should not aim to be either a bridge or a barrier. Integration of the latter will be an important but not an impossible task. Russian-language radio and TV stations are thriving and highly competitive. which would ultimately set Russia on a 320 . There is no longer an option of withdrawing into "Eurasia. foreign technology. That is where Russia's past imperial experience can help. Russian classical and popular culture. Even the Chechen separatists have preferred to use Russian for official papers and documents. from Riga to Bishkek. including Pushkin and Tolstoy. After Eurasia its own borders. is a major vehicle of cross-cultural exchange. There is a chance that the Russian language will be an important means of communication in business.12 This would immediately raise problems with the Russian Muslims. and foreign workers. as well as rock music. which will probably see this as a thinly veiled attempt at restoring Moscow's domination over Eastern and SouthEastern Europe. for this can easily compromise Russia's multicultural character. and even politics. culture.
Russia's role in conflict resolution is likely to diminish. The maturity of the Russian political class and society will be demonstrated by their ability to fully internalize Ukrainian "separateness" and independence. the only reasonable option is for the six Belarussian regions to join the Russian Federation. Otherwise. It must be fully understood that Belarus is a special case among the post-Soviet states. After Eurasia collision course with both the West and Islam. It will be in the Russian interest to help Belarus survive as an independent state closely integrated with Russia economically and allied politically. With the progressive reduction of Russian forces in the area and the new activity in Ukraine's foreign policy. Any solution that would give certain rights to 321 . Moldova has overcome an early temptation to erase its border with Romania.Conclusion. There is a need to turn the Russo-Ukrainian border into a model of close and vigorous interaction. Moscow and Kiev will probably have another chance to test the maturity of their relationship on the Crimea issue. Moscow has been acting as a broker between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Along Russia's European facade. It must also be noted that the level of religious devotion among ordinary Russian people is much lower than the political prominence of the top hierarchy of the Russian Orthodox Church. however. Russia's fragile internal balance will be jeopardized. a European analogue of the US-Canadian boundary. there is a merger. Satisfied that Moldova will not fall into Romania's lap. Erasing the former frontline along the Dniester will be a difficult long-term task. things have gone far better than expected. the main immediate challenges will be related to Belarus and Ukraine. and will keep its sovereignty. If. and develop a constructive and satisfying relationship. In the mediumto long-term future. So far.
The degree to 322 . If Russia and the European Union are serious about future strategic partnership. From the Russian point of view. supporting Baltic membership in the EU and letting Europe (i. and the Council of Europe) take care of the minorities problem in the Baltic States is the most sensible approach. the boundary between Transdniestria and the rest of Moldova will continue to require the attention of Moscow's diplomats and politicians. the boundary of the most interest is the one between Russia and the European Union. Linking the borders issues with the minority question is no longer useful. The standoff between Chisinau and Tiraspol should not be left to run its course without intervention. the European Union. the OSCE. if successful. On the other hand. a model of their security cooperation. then helping solve the conflict in Moldova can be a good test and. Kaliningrad is Russia's geographical stepping-stone to joining the core of EU-Europe. even when the last Russian peacekeeper goes home. will be of crucial importance. It is in Russia's interest to do whatever necessary to keep it open for progressively closer interaction. Fortress Kaliningrad has no raison d'être. and ratifying the one concluded with Lithuania as far back as 1997. and NATO membership for Poland does not lead to a massive military buildup. Economic cooperation and combating new security threats. Kaliningrad as a laboratory for EURussian integration has everything going for it. Border problems with Estonia and Latvia are more than ripe for final resolution. would have Russia among the prime guarantors. There is no reason for postponing the signing of border treaties with both countries. After Eurasia the Dniestrians. such as organized crime.Conclusion.e. Thus. Along the western facade. as is very likely. To the extent that the borders of the exclave remain uncontested. however.
For quite a while. the solution to which can be neither independence nor military rule per se. Along the southern flank. Avoiding the fragmentation of Dagestan and stabilizing the power-sharing mechanism in that republic are other longterm problems. ambiguity. both within its borders and in their direct vicinity. Russia's instinct has been to follow a policy of Abgrenzung vis-a-vis Azerbaijan and especially Georgia. Elsewhere in the North Caucasus. will be a measure of Russia's failure. Internal borders in the North Caucasus and the land rights disputes. Such a solution has to satisfy Russia's main interest — security (at regional and national levels) — and Chechnya's key interests. constructive or otherwise. and their role should be seen in the context of Armenia-related issues. at least for the medium-term. In the South Caucasus. which undermine many of them. Russia has been pushed from the concept of a double border toward the reality of virtually no border in the south to the need to construct such a border. self-government and access to legitimate economic opportunities. Russia needs to work to stabilize its periphery. an effort to redraw the internal borders could only destroy whatever stability there is in the area. will continue to be faute de mieux. Russian border troops are stationed only in Armenia. After Eurasia which the Union's eastern border will turn into a deep divide. the awkward tool of all conflict managers.Conclusion. namely. Reconstructing Chechnya is the main problem. or a high wall. A major region-wide economic program is needed at least to deemphasize territorial issues in the political discourse over the North Caucasus. As a result of the Chechen wars. 323 . During the 1990s. but the phenomenon of the inner abroad must be dealt with for the sake of the stability of the Federation as a whole. will remain among Russia's main security worries.
religious extremism. While the need to erect barriers to organized crime. and other threats to stability is obvious. Abandoning the Tajik base would leave Russia without resources to make a direct impact on the political-military situation in the region. The big question is. Russia does not have the option of shutting itself out of the region. After Eurasia closing borders and threatening or actually imposing visa requirements. Another one is along Kazakhstan's northern frontiers. An enlightened self-interest approach would call for further steps toward conflict resolution in Abkhazia. One is a line along the southern borders of Kazakhstan.Conclusion. As to the fallback positions. it is not only that and the Islamist threat that require attention. which makes a lot of strategic sense. South Ossetia. however. as well as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The forward position in Tajikistan remains important in view of the proximity to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. and Nagorno-Karabakh. whether Kazakhstan — even with Russia's support — will be able to survive over the medium-term within its present borders. there are several options available. While to much of the outside world Central Asia appears to be the arena for great power competition. Russia should have realized that conflicts north and south of the main Caucasus range are closely linked. but requires a long-term and costly commitment. In Central Asia. It is in Russia's interest to continue to support the domestic stability and territorial integrity of its neighbors. with Kyrgyzstan as a flank buffer. a sort of Great Game II. On the strength of the Chechnya example. terrorism. which makes very little sense. Russia will have to decide where to draw the line in the sand as it defines its security perimeter. strategic or otherwise. both of which are seriously threatened by Islamists. There are also problems between the 324 .
such as in the Fergana Valley. After Eurasia new states in the region that can become sources of future violent conflicts. the fundamental change in the balance of power between Russia and China could lead the border issue to resurface in a totally different way. the European Union. however. there is America and. A more assertive China. Finally. Russia will increasingly be worried about several things: (1) Chinese migration into the Russian Far East and southern Siberia and (2) the growing economic attraction of China. External challenges. In this context. but backward and increasingly degraded. are ill defined. Over the medium-term. borderlands. Contrary to the popular perception. with China. they are unlikely to lead to serious problems in relations. the internationalization of conflict-prevention and of conflict management will be required. It is in the Far East that Russia's fate will be decided in the next several decades. Central Asia offers a good opportunity for cooperation between Russia and several sets of outside partners to ensure security and stability. and Russia will need to concentrate on the development of its resource-rich. to a much smaller extent. The challenge is primarily of domestic origin. however. and three of the Central Asian states. One set of partners is the Shanghai Five. wielding com- 325 . Although some outstanding issues pertaining to islands on border rivers remain. Disputes over land rights and water supply can get out of hand. are not absent either. Over the long term.Conclusion. Russia will neither be able to act as the supreme arbiter nor to stay out of the conflicts altogether. fanning inter-ethnic hatred and provoking international crises. Borders between them. Russia. As recent examples demonstrate. Another one is India and Iran. The Russian government prides itself on finally reaching agreement on the border with China.
Despite their apparent weakness and vulnerability. However. and not act as a substitute for such a solution. a weak Russia can't be a generous Russia. could mean returning to the problem of the "unequal treaties" that gave Russia control over Primorye and Transbaikal. and the direction of the change is more important than any deadline. and Central Asia. Ulan Bator will have to navigate carefully between Moscow and the much closer Beijing. Ukraine. symbolizing a fundamental turnaround in Moscow's relations with Tokyo. Eventually. all CIS 326 . As China becomes the pre-eminent power in the region. the Baltic States. The territorial issue in Russia's relations with Japan is unlikely to go away soon. gravitating toward organized Europe or the Greater Middle East. these sub-regions are drifting in different directions. but they will at best make the resolution of the dispute smoother.Conclusion. Options for Russia's Neighbors The CIS has virtually never existed as a unit. After Eurasia manding influence in the region. the South Caucasus. a super-region. while others become part of the Moslem world. Mongolia has been transformed into a neutral buffer between China and Russia. Russia will probably agree to hand over all the disputed territories. breaking up into a number of sub-regions — the new Eastern Europe (Russia. The former Soviet Union has gone the way of the USSR itself. and Moldova). In their turn. Sophisticated plans to engage in joint development of the islands are important and potentially advantageous. Russia will need to take this possibility into account as it develops its border strategy in the Far East. Until now. parts of the former Eurasia are joining Europe. Already. This may come as the final stage of a fairly long process. Belarus.
The Moldovans and the Georgians demand the complete withdrawal of the Russian Army from their territories. where Armenia does in fact favor a change of the status quo. and have received pledges from Russia that it will do so under the modernized CFE agreement of 1999. all CIS countries immediately defined themselves as unitary states. 327 . On the other hand. All CIS countries feel the need to hold on to the territories that they received when the USSR broke up. National consolidation centered on raising the status of the countries' main ethnic group (ethnic Moldovans and Georgians respectively). After Eurasia countries not only have survived. President Nazarbayev. Still. They also believe all countries should refrain from making claims on the territory of their neighbors. should they be threatened with it in the future. In fact. The alternative would be chaos. For Russia and its neighbors. from Almaty to Astana. Both countries refused the option of becoming federations when they became independent out of fear of Russian separatism. creates problems for their relations with Russia. Azerbaijan) if there is to be a solution to their internal conflicts. territorial status quo is a must. however. despite the dismal economic condition of Kazakhstan. Kiev has been steadily solidifying its control over Simferopol and Sevastopol. Moldova. no matter how strong separatist claims may be.Conclusion. closer to the Russian border. Ukraine and Kazakhstan see federalization as a last resort for averting secession. The only exception to the general rule is the Karabakh conflict. transferred the capital to the north. this will have to be changed in several cases (Georgia. quite opposite policies have been adopted. but have retained a certain freedom of maneuver. In 1997. Except Russia.
the new states will need to learn to live next to Russia — each in its own way. prominent American authors celebrate their country's accession to the status of the principal and virtually 328 . The remaining border issues. mostly of a technical nature. The larger CIS will probably survive as another Commonwealth. Armenia. Aligning themselves closer to Russia is an option that several countries will exercise if that suits their national agendas. and Moldova will be difficult to overcome. Options for the West Even as the notion of a "world without Russia" is gaining currency.Conclusion. Thus. There will be no common pattern. they have to admit. Kyrgyzstan. Until Russia creates a viable modern economy and achieves domestic stability. Kazakhstan. and political alignments ad hoc. all members of a revitalized Collective Security Treaty. the cease-fire lines that divide Georgia. After Eurasia Unfortunately for the new states. Russia will have a role in either stitching together the split states or keeping them permanently divided. even fanning the conflicts. The Customs Union. Having secured their sovereignty and independence from Russia. has admitted Tajikistan as its fifth member. they can ill afford to seriously challenge Russia. have been joined by Uzbekistan as Russia's bilateral security/military partners. Azerbaijan. and Tajikistan. Belarus. In all cases. while less than perfect. even within a common-state approach proposed by international mediators. During the second Chechen war Moscow issued a clear warning to its neighbors that aiding or abetting the Chechen separatists by Russia's neighbors will not be tolerated. are likely to be tackled at the negotiating table. economic associations with other CIS states will be loose.
they have been trying to create per- 329 . economic. and cultural view. and often suspiciously analyzed for their potential neo-imperialist implications.13 Although Russia has ceased to be seen as a threat in Washington's eyes. In various ways. protector. Although the dissolution of the USSR was never a Cold War goal. from an American global perspective it is now possible to describe "Eurasia" — the way Zbigniew Brzezinski does. rather than its strength. defined by its geographical boundaries. is not how this term is used in this book. However. this US activism has been made possible by the demise and disintegration of the historical Eurasia. The Americans arrived at its funeral feast. Eurasia traditionally meant the Russian Empire and the USSR. restoration of a Russia-led Union is generally believed to be contrary to Western — as well as Muslim and Chinese interests. From a political. Russian moves toward integration are being carefully. One can argue however. Eurasia has recently witnessed the arrival of massive American power and influence. Washington replaced Moscow as the ultimate referee. After Eurasia unrivaled power in Eurasia. This. from seeking NATO membership to offering to host a US military base to staging peacekeeping exercises in some desert oasis.Conclusion. In the eyes of the newly independent nations across the former USSR. or the way "Eurasia" was commonly understood heretofore. for example — as a continent. however. military. and donor. the more insightful Russia-watchers have recognized early on that it is now Russia's weakness. that is the problem for the West. from a US perspective. True. that even in a narrow sense. except by theorists of geopolitics.14 Another trap is becoming too closely involved in Eurasian disputes. In fact. There are two pitfalls to watch. One is concentrating on preventing a Russian imperial renaissance.
democratization. After Eurasia manent and privileged relationships between themselves and the only global superpower. truncated and divided Russia would do no one any good. by means of remote control. and in a few cases. Americans may not support a high level of Washington's activism across the continent. in the Caucasus and the Caspian. after all. more vulnerable. Stalin. with nationalism hardly confined to its fringes. or even arbitrate effectively. there is at present NATO and the EU. including itself. there are Japan and South Korea.15 This reminds one of the original approach taken by the likes of Henry Morgenthau in the US and some people in France toward Germany at the end of World War II. Even more importantly. America is certainly interested in non-proliferation. Russia is largely missing from this list. is hardly possible. itself. but an entanglement there would heavily tax US resources and make America. had a point on the destructive potential of pent-up nationalism. Turkey and to some extent the EU. Ways must be found to bring about mutually satisfying cooperation between Russia and the US in those regions 330 . China. Anyway. regional stability. A failure to match promises with action would lead to bitter disappointment and a reversal of loyalties. Had they been successful in seeing their plans through. In Europe. For its part. and countering terrorism across Eurasia.Conclusion. in North-East Asia. the US will need allies and partners with whom it can cooperate on the basis of common interests. There is even a theory that three Russias are better than one. Despite America's predominance in Eurasia. They loved Germany so much that they preferred to see several of them. it can't do everything by itself. Europe would probably look entirely different today. By the same token. access to important resources. Following these goals intermittently. a weak and humiliated.
There is one outstanding feature in the Russian political psyche that can be especially valued by the Americans — Russians can think globally. Europe can become secure. After Eurasia where their interests are closest. but would miss a historic opportunity. For Europe. As the Union deepens and expands. and the international drug trade are good candidates. It is precisely the human resources of Russia and its geographical reach rather than the country's proverbial raw materials deposits that can provide Europe with an important comparative advantage in the 21st century. the worst option would be enclosing Russia in the West. A Europe separated by a high wall or a deep moat from its easternmost point would not only be incomplete and unstable. "whole" and internally much better balanced. Keeping the barriers as low as possible as the Union moves closer to the Russian border and engaging the immediate hinterland is a thoroughly sensible approach. It would be at that stage that an Atlantic/Pacific security arrangement "from Vancouver to Vladivostok" would finally become a reality. They could join forces to help themselves by helping each other. With Russia embedded into it. is a long-term proposition. but it could serve as a guide. As in the case of West Germany. and cultural integration within Europe. That. If such an attempt at regional interaction were a success. Not all US allies can. social. threatened by the spillover from the civil war in Afghanistan. Neither are Russia's. it must keep the door open to eventual Russian membership. strategic integration by the United States needs to be supplemented by economic. One also needs to reach out beyond the 331 . of course. a very important precedent would be created. political. Central Asia. America's interests in the region are not limited to oil. domestic Islamic extremism (though foreign-inspired and financed).Conclusion.
The Chechen problem will probably not be solved even in the medium-term. The European Union would also be wise to make sure that Russia is actively engaged in the implementation of its Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe. they abhor Russian methods and do not necessarily wish Russia to succeed. and Russia would be equally wise and forward-looking to cooperate with the EU and the US in looking for ways toward conflict resolution and reconstruction of the Caucasus. Should the West wish to bring that solution closer. as well as virtually all countries. and think big — reaching all the way to the ultimate and natural frontier of Europe. The Chechen war underlies the importance of addressing the larger issue of the Western-Russian relationship in the Caspian region. as evidenced by the international community's behavior during the Chechen war. The strategic dimension of this relationship could emerge as a result of a joint effort to heal the internal division of the European countries torn apart by ethnic conflict. recriminations. which is laden with mutual suspicions. but it needs to be managed in the interim. A good place to start would be Moldova. The idea is. recognizes the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. which lies on the Amur River and off Sakhalin Island. Although the West. After Eurasia doorstep of Russia. invoking direct confrontation with Russia. including both South Caucasus and Chechnya This won't be easy.Conclusion. to "nip Russian revisionism in the bud. and other attributes of the Great Game. 332 . the preferred role is that of a mediator. which is resolutely rejected by Moscow. it must accept some responsibility for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the war-ravaged republic." Since outright support for the rebels could be dangerous.
with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. but it can't prevail — yet.Conclusion. The concept of a citizenship-based Russian nation is spreading. instead of being "distant neighbors. After Eurasia For Japan. it would be easier to finalize the border between the two countries that. to which it could serve an eastern anchor alongside with Germany. A stable democratic and market-oriented Russia with a vibrant civic society is the best guarantee of Japan's security.16 Borders and Ethnicity The question.17 A more reasonable approach 333 . which hopefully can be transformed into some kind of a security framework. Russia is an essential element of the balance of power in North-East Asia. In this muchimproved climate. a friendly and well-disposed Russia would add to the strength of Japan's position in East and Central Asia. Tokyo's true objective should be a stable and sufficiently broad-based relationship with Russia. In return." could indeed become much closer. In the early 21st century. On its territorial dispute with Russia. which cancels out or at least greatly mitigates narrow ethnic nationalism. The idea of using "Russian compatriots" for geopolitical purposes is doomed. "Who is a Russian?" still has many competing answers. lives on. The idea of a "multinational Russian people. its principal European point of contact. This helps to explain why the "Russian Question" has failed to arouse much enthusiasm. the relationship with Russia is not limited to the territorial issue. Ethnic Russian nationalism remains a minority view: the Russians have a long imperial tradition. It has made a great effort after 1997 at enveloping the border dispute within a wider and less one-sided agenda." similar to the previous Soviet notion. Japan has been disappointed twice before.
it will again act as a cultural magnet. Ukraine is only at the beginning of its Long March of nation-building. The Dniestrians. are becoming assimilated. "Baltic Russians." In the context of the Baltic nations themselves. Most Russians in Moldova. Its Russian population is gradually becoming assimilated with Ukrainians. Kaliningraders. President Lukashenko was not silent about his ambitions to assume a pan-Slavic (i. who live outside of the Dniestr republic. and Belarus.e." will develop a Euro-centered regional mentality. Russian) role. however. through self-differentiation. reflecting the different orientations of Ukraine's diverse regions. Russian national patriots became accustomed to making regular pilgrimages to Minsk. The Russians in the Baltic States are on the way to becoming. It may appear that Belarus is more Russian-conscious than Russia itself. is probable. meanwhile. the Union will receive its first installment of "Eurorussians. The Russian diaspora has demonstrated very different reactions to the geopolitical developments responsible for their new condition." very distinct from their brethren in the Federation. but the process will be drawnout and patchy. assimilation will proceed. and to work to move Estonia and Latvia to speed up the process of internal integration there.Conclusion. If Russia becomes economically more successful. After Eurasia is to promote civil societies in Russia and the countries with the largest ethnic Russian populations — Ukraine. but will remain incomplete. are becoming a small regional community that is unlikely to fully integrate itself with the rest of the country. Kazakhstan. in everything but name. and the development of bi-communal societies. though "Russian Russians. With Estonia's entry into the EU. 334 . creating in the minds of liberals' uneasy historical parallels.
In Uzbekistan. because they are too poor or too old. however. One can only hope that they all survive in one piece. Kazakhstan will be highly vulnerable from within. has run its full course. Tajikistan.Conclusion. however. After Eurasia In the Transcaucasus." which. With enormous difficulty and pain. such as they have survived. * * * Thus. that the "Russian Question" may have the most dramatic consequences. are what has remained of the empire. In the early 21st century. in the form of the USSR reached a climax of territorial and cultural expansion. the Russians have become a small minority and keep a low profile. and Turkmenistan this may mean a marked change in the social environment. one can claim that "eternal Russia. Before modernity finally takes root. 335 . The exodus of ethnic Russians will be most pronounced from Central Asia. they may develop separatist trends. There will remain isolated pockets of ethnic Russians. Russia is slowly overcoming the "gravitational pull of its own history. As the local elites try to become westernized. Russian language and culture. Russia and its neighbors will have been through many crises over borders and ethnicity. will be unable or unwilling to move north. the masses will turn to Islam. Now that most Russians have left. who. Kyrgyzstan. These small pockets of ethnic Russians will be all that is left from a century of Russian rule. It is in Kazakhstan."18 Modernization of the Russian state and of Russian society requires non-traditional answers to the twin questions about Russia and the Russians. If Russians are not fully integrated within a uniquely "Eurasian" society. at the close of the 20 th century.
p. a natural place for Russia's own integration as a European country in an appropriate form. which is not very much in evidence at the moment." 5 These motifs are recurrent in the speeches and writings of Zyuganov. To the south." The National Interest. North Caucasus in the middle of it. cit. To the east lies an increasingly interconnected Asia. and the Baltic States have been "in and out. All of this places Russia in a highly uncomfortable position. Fall 1996. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii. p. is no tragedy. 4 This is one of the reasons why so many Russian commentators found Zbigniew Brzezinski's suggestion of precisely such a role for Russia "offensive.3 Thus. 1997. Yet. while Poland. demanding vision and the capacity for action. But it is not the end of Russia. there lies an increasingly unified Europe. To the west of its borders. "Geotherapy.197." 3 Alexander Dugin. where Russia must either establish itself as a country in Asia or face the mounting pressure to withdraw west of the Urals. Osnovy geopolitiki. Finland. and Sergei Baburin 6 This idea is promoted by Alexei Podberyozkin and his Spiritual Heritage group. NOTES 1 2 Steven Sestanovich. the end of Eurasia. After Eurasia Russia-Eurasia is over.. op. the Transcaucasus joined Eurasia in the early 19th century. for which a new and potentially happier era can now start. 7 Alexander Dugin. Zhirinovsky. and Central Asia in the second half of the century.Conclusion. p. a real catastrophe. 168 336 . It is merely the end of a long era. Moscow: Arktogeya. Osnovy geopolitiki. there is the challenge of Islamic activism whose source is both internal and external.
11 Sergei Karaganov. 1996.825). May 5.. "Granitsy rossiyskoi vlasti. p. 14 For example." (Henry Kissinger. 9 10 Cf." in Nezavisimaya gazeta. Sherman Garnett.202. p. 1996. Diplomacy. Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.312." (Limits of Russian Power). p.g. Zbigniew Brzezinski. 1999 — January 6. #52/1.6. Henry Kissinger. 18 The phrase is borrowed from: Sherman Garnett. December 30.Conclusion. Russia's Foreign Minister from 1856 through 1882. e. as with Belarus. 12 Samuel Huntington. See his "Granitsy rossiyskoi vlasti. Diplomacy. Report of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy" presented at its 8th annual assembly. "Strategy for Russia — IV. and Samuel Huntington interviewed by Obshchaya gazeta. 15 Cf. 13 Kissinger warned that partnership with Russia was possible only "if Russia remained within its borders. who after Russia's defeat in the Crimean War (1856) pursued a policy of "concentration" while promoting the conquest of Central Asia and the Far East. 2000. 17 Roughly one-third of Israel's population are "compatriots" in the sense of the proposed Russian legislation. not voluntary associations. p. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. 1997. Giullietto Chiesa of La Stampa. May 5. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 337 . this meant to discourage aggression or coercion by Russia. The Clash of Civilizations..80. p. Presumably. Moscow: 2000. After Eurasia 8 Prince Alexander Gorchakov. New York: Basic Books. Sergei Karaganov. 16 This very apt description belongs to Professor Hiroshi Kimura.
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