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i want a perfume and it should stay a long time on me. have you got any advices?
Most Helpful Girl
Lou Lou Perfume by Cachare, brought out in the 80's, pretty reasonably priced too.
It's really strong at first but after a few minutes, the subtle tones just cling to your clothes and it's very feminine and floral. The only perfume I use and it lasts a long time because you only need one squirt to last you the whole day..maybe even two! Not even over exaggerating, sprayed it on my coat last Winter, six months later, I go to put the coat on and don't need to reapply because it still smells just as nice, definitely worth a purchase!00|00|0


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Archive for April, 2014
The Life Expectancy Gap & Income
I have done a number of posts on the influence of income and eduction on life expectancy. This topic will get more and traction as discussion about raising the retirement age accelerates due to the demographic pressure on programs like Social Security and Medicare. If the retirement age is raised, the argument is that it will unfairly penalize people with lower incomes.
New Data on Income vs Life Expectancy
The graphics below are some new estimates by the Brookings Institution published in the Wall Street Journal that show the effects of income on life expectancy. The data show that better off people live longer and that this wealth effect is increasing for people born in 1940 vs. 1920. Life expectancy is actually getting worse for poor white women!
Education & Income
The graph below from the Tax Foundation shows that for the purposes of the sorts of population based comparisons I am making in this post, that education and income are essentially the same thing. This will become important as I try to factor out just how much of the life expectancy income/education gap is about money or perhaps other factors. If you use this graph and extrapolate the income and education data people without high school educations live 10 or more years less than those with bachelor's degrees or higher. That is about what the life expectancy difference looks like when the top and bottom 10 or 20% of incomes are compared.
What About Sweden?
Sweden is a country that has done all it can to reduce and modulate the effects of social and economic inequality on its population. So are there life expectancy differences by income or education in Sweden? The graph below shows the data for a number of countries in Europe including Sweden. The individuals in top 25% of educational attainment (essentially college or more) are being compared to the individuals who did not finish high school. In Sweden the most educated men live about 4 years longer and the Women live about 3 years longer than their least educated counterparts. If you compare this to the differences between the top and bottom 10-20% of incomes in the US the differences are about 7 years for men and 8 for women. This number for men in the US is similar to the average value for OECD 14 countries but the gap for women in the U.S. is much higher.
The Persistent Gap
The point of all of this is that there is an income/education/life expectancy gap and even the social democracies of Northern Europe can't make it go away. What is interesting is that like the US, smoking and other negative health behaviors are generally lower in well off and better educated people in this part of the world.
"The prevalence of smoking was higher in Denmark compared to Sweden. The total attributable fraction (TAF) of low education regarding daily smoking was 36% for Danish men and 35% for Danish women, and 32% and 46%, respectively, for Swedish men and women. TAF of low education regarding continued smoking were 16.2% and 15.8% for Danish men and women, and 11.0% and 18.8% for Swedish men and women, respectively"
The statistics in the paper above are a bit obscure but in the U.S. smoking and inactivity rates are typically higher by 2-4 times or more in the least vs. most educated and well off people.
Take Home Messages & Thoughts
- When I try to integrate the data above for men it seems to me that perhaps 30-40% of the life expectancy gap in the U.S. is due to general economic insecurity and things like lack of health care. However, a gap persists in countries where these concerns are not nearly as dramatic as they are in the U.S. However, like the U.S., there are education and income related differences for things like smoking just about everywhere.
- For women, it is worse in the U.S. and appears to be headed in the wrong direction. My guess is that women, especially poor women, are now participating in unhealthy behaviors as social taboos against smoking for example have faded.
- I remain an advocate of sin taxes.
- Education leads to income and to get educated you have to have infrastructure at home when and you have to develop some impulse control and ability to "self-regulate" early in life. I am not sure how to make this work from a policy perspective, but it is pretty clear that intensive early childhood interventions for poor kids can make a huge difference in terms of educational achievement, income and later health.
"High-quality early childhood programs have been shown to have substantial benefits in reducing crime, raising earnings, and promoting education. Much less is known about their benefits for adult health. We report on the long-term health effects of one of the oldest and most heavily cited early childhood interventions with long-term follow-up evaluated by the method of randomization: the Carolina Abecedarian Project (ABC). Using recently collected biomedical data, we find that disadvantaged children randomly assigned to treatment have significantly lower prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in their mid-30s. The evidence is especially strong for males. The mean systolic blood pressure among the control males is 143 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg), whereas it is only 126 mm Hg among the treated. One in four males in the control group is affected by metabolic syndrome, whereas none in the treatment group are affected. To reach these conclusions, we address several statistical challenges. We use exact permutation tests to account for small sample sizes and conduct a parallel bootstrap confidence interval analysis to confirm the permutation analysis. We adjust inference to account for the multiple hypotheses tested and for nonrandom attrition. Our evidence shows the potential of early life interventions for preventing disease and promoting health."
- I generally have a libertarian perspective on things like legalizing and taxing marijuana, however I am not sure if this will help solve the problem of people getting left behind in the education, income and ultimately health race.
- Finally, when people tell you that raising the retirement age is unfair to people who make less money, tell them to channel Jack Kemp, because what the poor need is a way out of poverty.
Redefining Human Limits: Bernard Hopkins, Ashton Eaton, Michael Phelps, and Steve Way
There have been some remarkable performances recently showing just how well 40 somethings can do in elite athletic competition. Then there seem to be more and more startling performances in general. There is also the issue of Michael Phelps coming back for his fifth Olympics and trying to add more medals to his total. Finally, unknowns still come out of nowhere. All of this seems to be redefining the limits of what is possible.
Bernard Hopkins
Last weekend 49 year old Bernard Hopkins unified the light-heavyweight (175 lbs, 78Kg) boxing title and now holds all of the titles in the alphabet soup of boxing. Boxing is a crazy and some would say barbaric sport, but to fight 12 rounds you have to be in superb condition and the speed, coordination, timing, and footwork of great boxers are all outstanding. I keep a list of great performances by older athletes and there have been some dominant performances by people in their late 30s and early 40s, and a number of people have done well at the highest level of their sport into their late 40s. However, what Hopkins has done is incredible and I can't think of anything that comes close.
Ashton Eaton
Speaking of anything that comes close, Olympic Decathlon champ and world record holder Ashton Eaton entered the 400m hurdles at the Mt. Sac Relays last weekend. He ran 50.01 and got fourth. This is a time that is at the edge of world class in arguably the toughest race in track and field. Incredibly, Eaton essentially ran the race without ever really practicing it. He is a superb high hurdler (13.35) and also excellent at the 400m (45.64), but to go out and blast a 50.01 is nuts. Milt Campbell was a world record holder in the high hurdles, a gold medalist in the decathlon (1956, he got a silver in 52), state champ swimmer, and professional football player. However, if Eaton becomes world class at the 400m hurdles, that will be truly out of this world.
Michael Phelps
Ashton Eaton may be "dabbling" in the 400m hurdles because he is "bored", the other bored person appears to be Michael Phelps. Phelps is coming back in an effort to add to 20 plus medals. There was an analysis of "older swimmers" (Phelps will be 31 at the next Olympics) on the 538.com website. The analysis pointed out that it is unusual for swimmers to do well past their mid-20s, and that rest of the field is catching up to times that Phelps posted during his peak. All of this is true and would suggest that it will be hard for Phelps to medal again.
However, the era of large numbers of swimmers continuing into their late 20s and early 30s may just be starting. Swimming was relatively late to fully professionalize and it is only recently that the financial incentives have been there to keep many people going past 25 or 26. The other issue is that swimmers start to train very hard in their early teens and most are tired of the grind after 10 plus years. Phelps seems to be settling into a pattern of 18 easy months post Olympics followed by a build up for the next Olympics. He also does not have to swim 6 or 8 races in 2016 and could easily focus on a couple of events. So, don't count him out.
Steve Way & Talent Identification
Steve Way was an overweight (224lb, 101kg) smoker who started running in 2007. A couple of weeks ago he ran 2:16 at the London Marathon and he is also a leading ultra-marathoner in Europe. Way is 39 years old. I have done a number of posts on talent identification, and the wasted talent that is out there in many countries. If all of the Steve Ways of the world were found and could be motivated to train as youngsters, would the East Africans be so dominant?
Closing Thoughts
The examples above all highlight things I have posted on in the last couple of years. However, the examples of Hopkins and Way are perhaps the most extreme examples related to aging and talent identification I have ever seen. Eaton and Phelps are just plain other worldly and perhaps their efforts show what a bit of boredom can do in the right hands.
Denial: Paying College Athletes & Paying for the Interstate Highways
I have been traveling extensively the last few weeks and have not had the time to do a post. During that time two things in the headlines have hit me that exemplify larger issues that seem to underlie so much of what troubles the world today. The first issue is the pervasive combination of double-standards, money, and media that is seen in major college sports in the U.S. The second issue is that the Federal Highway Trust Fund is almost out of money while our roads and bridges continue to decay. I see these two seemingly different issues as linked by a pervasive culture of denial by people who should know better.
College Sports
This issue has come to a head recently with the so-called Ed O'Bannon lawsuit and also the recent ruling that football players at Northwestern University are in fact employees and can unionize. The O'Bannon case is about the NCAA, the governing body that oversees most college sports in the U.S., profiting from the use of player images in video games while the athletes are essentially forbidden from profiting from the same images. There are all sorts of other restrictions about what athletes can and mostly can't do that can be summarized as the NCAA holding the so-called student athletes to 19th century standards of amateurism. The rub comes mostly in men's football and basketball which generate literally billions of dollars of economic activity per year and financial bonanzas for coaches.
You can slice the issues related to college sports many ways:
- What happens in non-revenue sports and at the schools with less emphasis on sports is different than what happens in so-called revenue sports which are mostly Division 1 men's football and basketball. The vast majority of athletes participating in college sports compete in obscurity and enjoy the competition and personal development that comes from playing at a high but anonymous level. So, a whole lot about college sports does not need to be fixed.
- Why should institutions of higher learning be de facto developmental leagues for professional football and basketball?
- If coaches can jump from school to school, why can't players?
- If education is the primary purpose of a scholarship for a "student-athlete", why are they given on a year to year basis instead of for four years? Why do practice time and other activities look and feel like a full time job?
- If schools can sign marketing deals with shoe companies, why can't the players endorse products?
- If the players in the big money men's sports are paid, what does that mean for gender equality, and how are all out bidding wars for high school talent prevented? The professional leagues have mechanisms in place to keep the talent acquistion field level. Do we want a salary cap for college football?
Questions and observations like these are endless and there are many defenders of the current system that seem mostly united by their economic interest in the status quo. I just hope that whatever emerges next in big time college sports reflect the economic and media realities that are out there. The players are not stupid and it is impossible to believe that University Presidents don't understand the questions and see the double standards I have outlined above. Is it too much to ask for an end to the denial and a little honesty and transparency from them?
The Interstates
The U.S. Interstate Highway System is one of the greatest (if not the greatest) civil engineering, economic development, and infrastructure projects in the history of humanity. It is also a great example of how the States and Federal government can cooperate to do visionary things. Many elements of the system were built in the 50s and 60s and need major repairs and upgrades.
The Interstates are funded by a trust fund that relies on revenue from gas taxes and it is projected to run out of money next year. The gas tax has not been raised since the early 1990s, and in general tolls are not allowed as a primary means to fund the Interstate system. Also, as people move to hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles and gas mileage rises in traditional cars, perhaps something more than a simple pay at the pump gas tax is needed. From what I can tell no one denies that the trust fund is almost out of money and no one denies that something needs to happen such as either increasing the gas tax or permitting widespread use of tolls. The issue here seems to be about denying that political compromise and deal making is actually a good thing. The inability of our elected officials to address, in a timely fashion, a problem that has minimal liberal/conservative ideological baggage is not a good sign. I hesitate to imagine what will happen when the trust funds supporting more politically charged programs like Medicare and Social Security run out of money in the 2020s and 2030s.
No Hiding?
The boxing champion Joe Louis said of his smaller and faster rival Billy Conn that "he can run but he can't hide." It seems to me that when it comes to fixing the double standards in big money, big media college sports and fixing the Interstates those responsible can "deny but they can't hide."
You are currently browsing the Human Limits blog archives for April, 2014.

subset: commoncrawl


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Job lot: the likelihood by livelihood of voting Labor, Liberal or Greens
Data from Roy Morgan Research shows which professions are most likely to vote above the norm for each of the major parties this September. View the attached table for a clear view of which jobs are more likely to vote which way.
An electorate of only Train and Tram Drivers, Intelligence and Policy Analysts and Mail Sorters would give a landslide to the ALP (but the party would be left seat-less if only Defence Force personnel, Manufacturers and Financial Advisers got a ballot), while if only Primary School Teachers voted, we'd have a neck-and-neck Federal Election this September.
60% of Crane, Hoist and Lift Operators, 53% of Train and Tram Drivers and 50% of Food and Drink Factory Workers give their first preference vote to the ALP, while over 60% of Defence Force members, Chief Executives, Police, Manufacturers, and Financial Investment Advisers, Managers and Brokers vote Liberal.
Overall, jobs within the larger categories of Labourers, Machinery Operators and Drivers, Technicians and Trades Workers, and Community and Personal Service Workers are more likely than average to vote Labor, while Clerical and Administrative Workers and Managers are more likely to vote Liberal and those classified as Professionals are over 50% more likely to vote Greens.
The professions most skewed toward voting Greens cover a wide range of professions, from the unsurprising Social Professionals (33%) and Environmental Scientists (30%) to Intelligence and Policy Analysts (29%), Judicial and Other Legal Professionals (28%) and Psychologists (27%). Other professions with a more than double-the-average rate of voting Greens include Medical Laboratory Scientists, Librarians, and Software and Applications Programmers.
The professionals most likely to vote Family First are Meat, Poultry and Seafood Process Workers, Delivery Drivers, Waiters and Dental Assistants. Ministers of Religion are the 7th most likely at 7%—just behind Retail Supervisors.
Farmers of all stripes dominate the National Party's list, although Cabinetmakers, Hotel and Motel Managers and Bus and Coach Drivers make the Top 10.
The proportion of Plasterers and Midwives voting Labor is dead-on average, as is that of Truck Drivers voting Liberal and Storepersons voting Greens.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says:
"It is interesting that while each of Labor's Top 10 jobs is blue collar—consistent with the party's traditional base—there is more variety within the Liberal and Greens lists: CEOs and Livestock Farmers are both over 50% more likely to vote Liberal than average, while Policy Analysts, Graphic Designers and Social Workers are all almost three times more likely than average to go Greens.
"Survey Interviewers are 18% more likely to... give no answer when asked for their first preference vote."
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) January 2011 – December 2012, n = 87,416.
Base: Australian Electors. Professions with a sample size <100 have been excluded.
Contact Profile
Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan Research is Australia's best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company. Roy Morgan Single Source is thorough, accurate, and provides comprehensive, directly applicable information about current and future customers. It is unique in that it directs all the questions to each individual from a base survey sample of around 55,000 interviews in Australia and 15,000 interviews in New Zealand annually - the largest Single Source databases in the world. The questions asked relate to lifestyle and attitudes, media consumption habits (including TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, catalogues, pay TV and the Internet), brand and product usage, purchase intentions, retail visitations, service provider preferences, financial information and recreation and leisure activities. This lead product is supported by a nationally networked, consultancy-orientated market research capability.
Shaun Ellis
W: www.roymorgan.com


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Colorado Governmental Immunity Act
The State of Colorado currently insures itself against litigation and will provide legal counsel and indemnification for employees (both paid and unpaid) in civil suits.


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This holiday season, video game chain GAME released a comical Christmas game that simulates the best and worst of being in the mall during one of the busiest times of the year. The 'Christmas Shopper Simulator' is described as "an epic quest to do a bit of Christmas shopping, complete with all the disappointment, frustration and suspension of the laws of physics that you'd find in a real shopping center." This includes trying to navigate the confusing layout of the mall itself, bumping into other shoppers and knocking stacked displays over.
The free-to-download game is made in the same style as Goat Simulator, serving as a tongue-in-cheek way to comment about how shopping can cut into valuable time that could be spent playing your favorite video games.
Frustrating Shopping Games
More Stats +/-
Social Gifting Campaigns
Gold-Infused Beers
Heartwarming Social Campaigns
Tearjerking Christmas Videos
Car Sale Spoofs
This Funny Christmas Game Simulates the Challenges of Holiday Shopping
- By: Laura McQuarrieDec 6, 2014
References: game & prexamples
References: game & prexamples


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M.S. Graduate Research Assistantship
LSU Department of Entomology
For agroecosystems to be sustainable, they must be both productive and protective. Agroecosystems must provide sufficient natural enemy diversity to help regulate pest populations. However, though insecticides are often a necessary tactic used to control insect pest populations, they disrupt the integrity of agroecosystems. We seek a highly motivated M.S. student to evaluate the effects of current insecticides meant to control stink bugs on soybean looper and natural enemies. The selected student will test whether insecticides cause pest resurgence and secondary pests by reducing natural enemies. Over the course of the project, the student will create and validate best management practices that integrate insecticides to control pests while preserving natural enemies and ecological partnerships.
The successful student will have the opportunity to work in diverse agricultural production systems throughout Louisiana and will be expected to publish both peer-reviewed journal articles and extension publications. The student will gain valuable experience in southern field crop production, from planting to harvest, including pest scouting. This is also an exciting opportunity to gain valuable experience in systems level ecological management.
The Department of Entomology is an essential part of the Louisiana State University (LSU) Agriculture Center located in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Department of Entomology was established in 1889 and includes 13 faculty involved in basic and applied research related to pollinators, urban pests, taxonomy, integrated pest management, toxicology, biological control, and insect physiology.
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* TOEFL scores for international students.
* GRE scores are highly recommended. Contact: Dr. Jeff Davis E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com.


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–Currently sidelined WWE Diva Maryse was backstage at the Breaking Point pay-per view in Montreal last night.
Speaking of Maryse, she has been noting in recent Twitter messages that her WWE return should be happening pretty soon.
John Foy sent along the following: TNA Wrestling will be in Dublin, Ireland on October 3rd to run an event at the o2 Arena. It's a very large place for a TNA event and it will be interesting to see if they can fill the building. As luck would have it, just one month later, WWE will run the same arena (o2) for two shows. One will be the D-X tour with the RAW brand, while the other is Undertaker's R.I.P. tour with the SmackDown/ECW crew.
Have a news tip? Attended an event and want to send a live report?


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Tune to Drop D (D A D G B E) Chords usedStandard guitar tuning:EADGBENo capo
Gsus4 G G5 G5 F♯
Dsus2 Cadd9 G6
G5 G5/F♯ Dsus2Ronnie plays this little lick after the G6 in the verses------------------| ------------------| ------------------| -----0---0---(0)--| -0-2---2---2------| ------------------|
Verse 1Dsus2Spent some time feelin inCadd9feriorG6 Standing in front of my Dmirror Dsus2Combed my hair in a thousand Cadd9ways G6 But I came out looking just the Dsame Dsus2Daddy said, son, you better see the Cadd9world G6 I wouldn't blame you if you wanted to Dleave Dsus2But remember one thing dont lose your Cadd9head G6 To a woman that'll spend your Dbread So I got ouGt D G D G D G D
Verse 2Dsus2Paris was a place you could hide Cadd9away G6 If you felt you didn't fit Din Dsus2French police wouldnt give me no Cadd9peace G6 They claimed I was a nasty Dperson Dsus2Down along the left bank minding my Cadd9own G6 Was knocked down by a human stampede Dsus2Got arrested for inciting a peaceful rCadd9iot G6 When all I wanted was a cup of Dtea I was accuseGd D G D G DI moved on
Verse 3Dsus2Down in rome I wasnt getting enoCadd9ugh G6 Of the things that keeps a young man Dalive Dsus2My body stunk but I kept my fuCadd9nk G6 At a time when I was right out of Dluck Dsus2Getting desperate indeed I wCadd9as G6 Looking like a tourist atDtraction Dsus2Oh my dear I better get out of Cadd9here G6 for the vatican dont give no Dsanction I wasnt Gready for that, Dno noG D GI moved right out east Dyeah!
Verse 4On theDsus2 peking ferry I was feeling Cadd9merry G6 Sailing on my way back Dhere Dsus2I fell in love with a slit eyed lCadd9ady G6 By the light of an eastern Dmoon Dsus2Shangai Lil never used the pCadd9ill G6 She claimed that it just aint Dnatural Dsus2She took me up on deck and bit my Cadd9neck G6 Oh Gpeople I was glad I found Dher Oh yeaGh I was glad I foundD her G D G D
Verse 5Dsus2I firmly believe that Cadd9I G6 didnt need anyone but Dme Dsus2I sincerely thought I was so comCadd9plete G6 Look how wrong you can Dbe Dsus2The women Ive known I wouldnt let tie my Cadd9shoe G6 They wouldnt give you the time of Dday Dsus2But the slit eyed lady knocked me off my Cadd9feet G6 GGod I was glad I fDound her Dsus2And if they had the words I could tell to Cadd9you G6 To help you on the way down the Droad Dsus2I couldnt quote you no dickens, shelley or Cadd9keats G6 cause its all been said beDfore Dsus2Make the best out of the bad Cadd9just laugh it G6off You didnt Ghave to come here Danyway Outro/Fadeout
Dsus2 -------------------------| -------------------------| -------------------------| -12-12-12-12-12-12-------| -12-12-14-12-12-14-------| -12-12-12-12-12-12-------|So remember, every picture tells a story dont it
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Market Commentary: Markets Open Down, Melt Up To Green On Falling Volume
December 29th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market open, syndication
Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 12-29-2014
Premarkets were down -0.3% and moved to -0.1% prior to the opening. Markets opened down and flat and quickly melted up fractionally to green remaining flat.
By 10 am the averages were in the green while the $RUT was up +0.4% on falling volume.
The SP500 made a run for another historic high but failed by a point and turned down. The oils were trading sideways and gold just took a big dump leaving investors wondering what Mr. Market has up his sleeve today. If volume fall any further the HFT algo computers are a good bet that the averages will be pushed up. New SP500 highs are a real possibility.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the session market direction meter is 14 % bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 13.11. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 62 % Bearish.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 54.2 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 36.22. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 53.85 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor's should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a 'correction' underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not 'leading' indicators as such, but depicting 'trends' in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 59.82. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.20. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 22.16. (Chart Here) Flattening Yield Curve Signaling Slowing Economic Growth?
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 72.80. (Chart Here)
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,995. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
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The DOW at 10:15 is at 18055 up 3 or 0.02%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2092 up 4 or 0.18%. (Historical High 2,091.77)
SPY is at 208.84 up 0.40 or 0.20%.
The $RUT is at 1221 up 6 or 0.46%.
NASDAQ is at 4811 up 4 or 0.08%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4314 down 1 or -0.02%.
How the Popular 'VIX' Gauge Works
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 15.33 up 0.83 or 5.72%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
Gundlach: Rates not going anywhere; oil headed lower
Everything You Need To Know About The Geopolitics Surrounding Crude Oil
WTI oil is trading between 55.72 (resistance) and 55.02 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 55.22. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 60.43 (resistance) and 59.48 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 59.98. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1197.40 earlier to 1185.86 and is currently trading down at 1186.20. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.822 falling from 2.845 earlier. (Chart Here)
The Consequences Of A Strengthening U.S. Dollar
The US dollar is trading between 90.35 (highest since 2006 and 89 to ~90 is a very substantial resistance) and 90.08 and is currently trading down at 90.32, the bias is currently trending up. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The next resistance is at ~88.85 set in June, 2010.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary


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Yes, New York again. I know the blog is called Elizabeth Minchilli in Rome, but since I seem to be the resident New Yorker for a lot of my Roman friends, I'm taking the opportunity to post about some of our favorite places we visit every time we're in town.
As you'd imagine, when in NYC, we steer clear of pizza, pasta and anything else even vaguely Italian. Instead it's either 100% American (like Peels) or else from a far away continent – preferably Asia.
One of our traditional stops is at Jing Fong, for dim sum. I'm sure there are probably quainter, or even better, dim sum places in Chinatown, (and you can check out this app for everything you've ever wanted to know about that neighborhood) but we love Jing Fong, in all it's glorious, tacky, Hong-Kongish, over-the-stop splendor.
If you're lucky, or go off hours, just ride the escalator straight up to the dining room. If not, give your name to the lady behind the podium. She will give you a completely random number (don't worry if numbers before or after yours get called) which should get you seated in under ten minutes.
Why the short wait? The place is huge. And by huge, I mean HUGE. This is Chinese banquet style dining, big time. The stage at one end of the room is usually decorated with an elaborate balloon arrangement, ready or left over for some wedding or birthday. (Notice that almost all the other tables are full of Chinese families)
You'll be shown to your table, given a little slip of gridded paper, and the show begins. Kerchiefed ladies pushing steam carts between the rows of tables pass by, yelling out undecipherable names of whatever is held in their bamboo baskets. We usually grab one or two of everything. The ladies squeeze the appropriate sauce atop our dumplings, check off our running tab on the numbered card, and wheel away.
Tiny pork-stuffed dumplings, thick rice noodles wrapped around chopped beef, fluffy pork buns. All is good.
Eventually we make a trip up to the buffet, which is always a surprise. Piles of seasonal greens, tripe and this time around mini steamed eggplants stuffed with shrimp. Noodles are ordered off the small menu, and come out from the kitchen. Worth the wait.
It's always hard to tell when we're done. It's so easy to continue grabbing just one more bamboo basket, just one more plate from the buffet. But eventually we take our tab up to the cashier, pay our bill (shockingly cheap) and take the escalator back down to continue on our New York day.
Jing Fong
20 Elizabeth Street
Reader Interactions
Mmmm… I want to go back.
I had to laugh when I saw this Elizabeth. This restaurant is two blocks away from the infamous "Mulburry Bend" — the center of Little Italy around the turn of the century. (Jacab Riis, the Danish Journalist turned social reformer, has a picture of Mulburry Bend in his book "How the Other Half Lives".) This area was home-base to most Southern Italians who passed through Ellis Island. (The old "Hewbrew Quarter" started at Baynard St.) Now, most of the area is "China Town". Lower Manhattan is such an interesting place!
I love the Occupancy sign!
We happened to sit at the same table as one of the owners of Jing Fong last time we were there. Fascinating! Underneath the seeming disorder of the place, there is science. Everything is worked out perfectly. I think he said they serve 7,000 people per Sunday. My wife has a theory that no matter how much dim sum we eat, the bill is always $13 per person. And he said that their goal was $15. So about right. They have one whole floor that does nothing but dishwashing. Then there is a prep floor, a cooking floor, and a couple others. 6 floors total I think. A real palace of dim sum.
Will you please stop posting on NYC soon, Elizabeth? This is torture, torture I tell you! 🙂 Truly, my little face is practically pressed up against the screen.
I'm in the airport lounge at LAX at the moment, heading for NYC. I'll make this a trip from mid-town. Thank you!
Nicely done. Although I eat most of my Asian food in Flushing, Queens these days, Jing Fong is where I mostly recommend that out of town friends or locals who want a guaranteed upbeat meal go for dim sum. The overall experience is well worth it and the great variety of freshly prepared food beats almost any other place in NYC. I love it, escalator and all.
Now I'm craving dim sum!!!
I'm feeling a trek to NYC is in order. Glad you had a nice visit!
@Michelle: I love this part of NYC, since I guess it feels most like 'home' (i.e. Rome)
@Josehpine: I know! Love they had to cross it out from 800!
@Jake: Wow, would love to have the full tour – all six floors – one day. Or not?
@Steve: We always mean to get out to Queens, but never seem to find the time during the week we are there.
Mmmmmm Jing Fong. I was born and raised in NYC and I think this is still the best dim sum place (with dim sum in Flushing coming in a close second!!).
When I was younger the huge escalator seemed soooo big.
Elizabeth (or anyone reading this post), I would be Forever Grateful for tips on where to get good dim sum in Rome – I grew up in Vancouver, BC, (or Hong Couver, as we affectionately call it), have been away for over 3 years and am in serious Xiao Mai withdrawal…


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I do not have that time (also my requirements are probably hard to fulfill).
As an alternative I searched for a very basic ready-made x86 win7pese that would allow me to easily add portable programs with shortcuts to them on the desktop and/or the start menu.
(dynamic shortcuts for portable applications)
with the possibility to add dynamic shortcuts to any portable program that you add to the USB.


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These hindi songs have been adding value in relationships from a long time and friendship is one of them. From "Yaaron! dosti" to "Ye Number 1 Yaari Hai", the songs from Hindi cinemas are most favorite of young generation . Here you go…………
List of Hindi Friendship songs –
1. Dil Chahta Hai from Dil Chahta Hai
2. Yaar Mod Do from Punjabi Single
3. Daaru Desi from Cocktail
4. Yaaron! dosti from Rockford
5. Jaane Nahi Denge Tujhe from 3 Idiots
6. Mustafa Mustafa from Kadhal Desam (Tamil)
7. Tere Jaisa Yaar Kahaan from Yaarana (1981)
8. Yeh Dosti Hum Nahi Todenge from Sholay
9. Yaari Hai Imaan Mera from Zanjeer
10. Yaar Anmulle from Yaar Anmulle
11. Har Ek Friend Zaroori Hota Hai from Airtel TVC
12. Jo Mera Hai Woh Tera Hai Airtel TVC
13. Yaaron Aisa Hai from Rangrezz
14. Allah Waariyan from Yaariyan (2014)
15. Yaari Yaari from Purani Jeans (2014)
Hope you enjoyed Hindi friendship songs list
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Rachael Rose
I can speak in a way that is soothing and comforting, or bubbly and attention grabbing. Either way, my careful enunciation and thourhgt-out delivery makes my voice clear and captivating.
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Child, Middle Aged, Teen, Young Adult
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Audiobooks, Business, Cartoons, Documentaries, Educational, Internet, Movie Trailers, Podcasting, Radio, Telephone, Television, Videogames
I've done quite a bit of live theatre, but I'm totally new to this!
I'm currently working on my associates.
Payment Terms
Hire Rachael as a voice actor. Payment is made through Voices.com SurePay, an escrow service that guarantees your work is done to your satisfaction. Send payment securely by Visa, Mastercard or PayPal through Voices.com then download your files from the website.
Watch a video to see how to make a payment
Next Steps
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This talent has not uploaded any demos yet.
Hire Rachael Rose as a voice actor. Working with Rachael Rose is fast and easy. We'll walk you through the process step-by-step.
Request a quote for your project today.


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Office Phone: 3866687072
Updated: 23rd January, 2018 4:33 AM.
2043 Watersedge Drive Deltona, FL
Real Estate | Florida Today Powered by Placester


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2014 Tribeca Film Festival Kicks off Allen Iverson Documentary
Allen Iverson announced his retirement from the NBA earlier this year. His very well famous No. 3 that he wore during his career on the back of his jersey's went up at the Philadelphia 76ers basketball arena.
No other player that plays for the 76ers will ever be able to wear it. With being one of the greatest players to ever step foot on a court, the basketball hero will be stepping his astonishing life into the 2014 Tribeca Film Festival Sunday, April 27th.
The documentary of his life will be titled "IVERSON". Iverson life story is a remarkable one. Going through hardships while being raised in Hampton, Virginia and struggles in life, Iverson was able to make it to the triumph and went on to become an inspiration to many that has similarity battles that he once had.
The film is said to be capturing the highs and lows of the basketball players life on and off the court. It also captures the well highlighted time that Iverson inspired the entire generation with his love for the hip-hop culture. We hope that the film will eventually hit the big screen nationwide. We are rooting for you Allen!


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China as the World's Technology Leader in the 21st Century: Dream or Reality? — HKUST IEMS and IPP – EY Hong Kong Emerging Market Insights Series
In this talk, IEMS' Naubahar Sharif argues that China is positioning itself to assume global leadership in technology within the coming few decades. Continue reading


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Best Female Singer of Japan
The Contenders: Page 3
I don't think a lot of people have ever heard of her unless you've played games developed by Gust. Her singing style is very unique, but not all know how to appreciate it.
Absolutely beautiful music, but an underrated composer as well -make sure you listen to her instrumentals too!
Extremely talented and versatile artist. Raka and Navigatoria are her best albums
Always with her :)
Dream girl!
Full package idol..
I like her drama Majisuka Gakuen 4 & Majisuka Gakuen 5..Will always support her in NMB48..^^
I so so so love her
I love her voice. It sounds tough and sexy at the same time.
Especially her voice is very stable when she dances which is very very good!
Can sing and dance live. Her performances are always on point
Love her voice and her performance so much. Very perfect!
Awesome performer and artistV 3 Comments
"Shiina Ringo", well there's something about her that's just AMAZING! Her mellow voice, great imagery, stunningly classy, fluent French... oh GOD, I can't seem to put an end to it.. love her, for me she represents the best of women.. sophisticated yet utterly impeccable, I love this woman, being one of the only particular type-Unique
Not only is she the best female singer in Japan, she is the most talented musician as well. Everyone in the top ten on this list is a complete embarrassment next to her. Number one, with everyone else in a very, very, VERY distant second.
Like the voice of a goddess. Behind her songs you can hear her feelings as if they were in broad daylight. Ms. Ringo is by far one of the best I am glad to have here. Please listen to Shiina Ringo songs!V 2 Comments
Your Voice Deserves to be In the top 10, You Sing In a Japanese Version of Adele, Celine Dion With a Strong, Power Voice. That I Wish I Had.
check Do As Infinity to find out - ronluna
It doesn't matter what your singing about the emotion comes through the music. Love her and her beautiful voice.
Powerful voice and energy on stageV 3 Comments
Nagi deserves way more votes! The fact that she doesn't sing in a boring nasally voice like the majority of J-singers is already a plus. Her voice is sweet, mature, airy and high notes are hit with no strain and without resorting to a nasal tone.
She writes the lyrics for all her songs (with a few exceptions of when she collaborates with someone else) and composes a lot of her own unique songs.
Honestly, her style and voice are incredibly refreshing in an industry where female singers sound exactly the same as each other. The first time I heard her, I was amazed. I wish she'd get more appreciation... Looking at the top votes, I can't help but feel a little disappointed.
Wonderful voice! I started loving her from the first song I heard
Seriously, her voice is the best.
Just try it! You'll love it.
My favorite for the momentV 3 Comments
Her vibrato is SUPERB
Her musical style is really addictive and her vocal range is indeed very versatile, ranging from the heartfelt ballads to the hard rock songs. The BEST artist in Japan for me!
Hi miss mami kawada I am one of your fan...
Your song are vary good!
I wish we will meet someday...
If you don't know my friends also idolized you...
Mamisama is THE GREATEST! Her voice reminds me of flowing water... And depending on the music, the flow of her voice ranges from softness to turbulence!
So addicting songs. I was expecting her to be much higher on this list, but oh well. I guess she's not that known.V 5 Comments
Her voice is so touching, I think all should listen to her at least once in their life. She is truly amazing and everyone should like her
From voicing Escaflowne and to other anime characters, this woman is amazing! She's one of my favorite Jpop singers of all times! From a being a child voice actress and now with also being a singer. Her soft (piano) voice is so smoothing that's its unbelievable! She also can sing live and has never lip sync since the beginning of her career!
. Maaya Sakamoto is the best. My favorite song of her is Spica. I really love her voice
Her voice always drives me to sleep..V 1 Comment
Good Luck Nami, You are the best in Japan... hope you improve in all way to become world singer in Japan
The most Beautiful Japanese singer
She is the Best!
She have the brilliant, powerful, energetic and potential voice. The only think that can make the Olympic better is let her perform her song at Opening Ceremonies
I love her beautiful face and voice! My favorite songs by her are: Aitai Kimochi, Aisaretakute aishitai dake, and alone in my room
She is a very good singer! She is beautiful and has a strong voice and touching lyrics, my favorite songs by her are My Girl and Aitai kimochi... I can see her getting big in Japan very soon. Just keep on trying Hanah you will get the fame you deserve soon!
She is just amazing! Her songs are so meaningful and she has a nice R&B sound my favorite song with her is Aitai Kimochi! She is gone be big in japan in no time! And when she gets established in Japan you have to come to the USA HanaH we really love and appreciate your work here!V 2 Comments
I've hear all of the songs she's performed for the Detective Conan Anime series and they're fantastic, her voice is just lovely. And I love her energy!
I love her! She is beauty and has a wonderful voice.
She have sang many beautiful song, such as Love, Day After Tomorrow, chance for you, stay by my side, sakura sakura, zutto..., reach for the sky, winter bells.
For me is the best japanese singer!
I love you mai chan
Kuraki Mai is so beauty and cuties
In my oppinion, Mai is the best japanese singer. She has a good voice. She is a pretties and the most beautiful in my life. I love her.V 6 Comments
Her voice is super! It's always inspiring to hear her sing live because her voice is so strong and clear
No one is better...On record and definitely not live. Should definitely be top 5!
This girl... is amazing! You only have to hear her and enjoy, her sweet voice, but at the same time strong and powerful, an extreme tallented voice. Just incredible!
Kiyoe! Her voice is incredibleV 2 Comments
I love Onmyou-za so much! She's the best for me! I love all her songs! Her combo with Matatabi is also very good. The high pitch, the vibrato, her shriek, her scream, her soft voice, they r all God-like!V 1 Comment
Her concerts are extremely fun and she always sounds like she's enjoying herself too. It's more lighthearted than anything you can ever hope for.
Ai Otsuka is the best
I really love her voice!
Otsuka Ai really deserves better place! Her voice is cute and full of feeling. Especially Planetarium, it always makes me cry... please vote for her!V 3 Comments
Recommended Lists
Related ListsBest Female Singer in Asia Best Female Singer in the Philippines Best Male Singer of Japan Most Memorable 80s Songs by a Female Singer Best Female Metal Singer
List Stats
143 listings
10 years, 141 days old
Top Remixes (10)
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Tomomi Itano
2. Utada Hikaru
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3. Yuko Oshima
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I Will Visit Romania
Personal Stories, Advice, and Support 11 People
Impressed And Sadenedi watched a dvd on Ceaușescu palace and what a monument ... but how sad it was at the expense of the poor. now a parliamentary building ... but one I long to visit.
czaristacrystals 36-40, F 0 May 13, 2011


text: Martin Luther King, Jr. was murdered on April 4, 1968. He was shot while he was on the balcony of his hotel room. Two months later, James Earl Ray was found and charged with the murder. Ray plead guilty and was sentenced to a 99 year prison term.You can find more information here:


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Did the Big Bang reached absolute zero? Or it is nearly absolute zero?
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In the Big Bang theory, the Universe was extremely hot and dense which rapidly expanded. This caused it to cool and is presently still expanding. It was thought to have taken place 13.75 billion years ago--the age of the universe. It expanded from a singularity and when it began to cool, energy was converted to subatomic particles. These combined to form nuclei and eventually, atoms formed. Elements like hydrogen formed and then helium and lithium. These became stars and galaxies. There is evidence that the universe is expanding still--redshifts of galaxies, for instance. Also, there is cosmic microwave background radiation coming from all directions, indicating the universe is expanding. However, will it keep expanding? There is a theory called the Big Freeze which proposes that continued expansion results in a universe asymptotically approaching absolute zero in temperature. This would mean it would stop. Heat death is a different scenario in which the universe goes to maximum entropy where everything is equally distributed and no more gradients exist. Therefore, there is no energy transfer nor any life. Right now, it is not at absolute zero and it is still expanding.


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Well, the event that I never thought would ever happen in Perth happened, and not only did it happen, it had more interest than expected and some people unfortunately missed out. Jeremy, as a result, had to take many upset phone calls. It seems that for Perth, once a few people got wind of SharePoint Saturday, everyone wanted in.
There were great sessions, great giveaways and I think overall, tremendous value for this free event. Seven Sigma sponsored the showbags, which we managed to fill with some awesome goodies, thanks to the generosity of Brett Lonsdale at Lightningtools, Michael Sampson, Bjoern Furuknap, Dux Sy, Combined Knowledge and the good folks at Colligo. If you attended the event, please show your support to these guys – they really went above and beyond. Mrs Cleverworkarounds, on the other hand, never wants to see or hear the word "showbag" ever again!
For me personally, I enjoyed meeting Michael Noel. I think he and I were the only non devs at SharePint (okay well maybe Joshua Haebets too 🙂 ). Speaking of which, Joshua and Milan Goss were also great to meet too, and I'm sure that there might be projects in the future we will see each other on.
Seven Sigma also donated a seat on the first SharePoint 2010 week-long bootcamp to be held in Perth. As a background: I met Steve Smith in New Zealand last year and we got on very well. Recently, we asked him if he would consider Perth to run his 2010 bootcamps and he has agreed! This is a great outcome for Perth, having beat out Sydney and Melbourne for being the first to run them as this will be the first time the courses have been offered to the general public in Australia.
Steve Smith and Gary Yeoman will be flying in from the UK especially for this event, so it is not to be missed. Both Steve and Gary are internationally renowned for the quality of their training and the courseware itself is the very same material that Microsoft itself uses to train their own staff on SharePoint 2010. All you eastern states people reading this? It's about time you went west anyway, so come and check out Perth's beer while you are here!
SharePoint 2010 Beta Developer Track 4 days
- Delivered by Gary Yeoman
- Date: 27th April - 30th April 2010
- Cost: $3000 (+GST)
This course guides you through essential 2010 elements, from pre-requisites to system integration, giving you the skills to work confidently and leverage full value from new technology.
Please note: Due to our ANZAC public holiday this course is a 4 day course from 08:30 – 6:00pm. One additional session is added per day to make up for the Monday public holiday.
SharePoint 2010 Beta Administrator Track 5 days
- Delivered by Steve Smith – MVP
- Date: 10th May – 14th May 2010
- Cost: $3000 (+GST)
Step-by -step understanding is the key to successful implementation and deployment of SharePoint 2010. This 15-module course will guide you through each critical stage, giving you exactly the skills you need to leverage full value from the latest SharePoint technology.
Book now at Seven Sigma's website:
For more info visit: www.combined-knowledge.com.au
or contact: email@example.com


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by Brian Tomasik
First written: summer 2007; last update: 14 Apr. 2015
In theory, far out-of-the-money call options should offer extremely high expected returns, sometimes annualized rates of 100%, 200%, or more. At least one study has confirmed such return magnitudes on index options, at least when bid-ask spreads and transactions costs are ignored. However, another study on index futures options found that call options, especially far out-of-the-money ones, offer low or negative expected returns, possibly on account of "favorite-longshot bias." A third study of individual-stock options similarly found that calls had negative expected returns that became more negative at higher strike prices.
Thus, while a nice idea in theory, the implicit leverage of out-of-the-money call options does not seem to be a feasible way for risk-neutral altruists to achieve high expected returns. It's also worth noting that certain groups are opposed to options and leverage in general -- especially Islamic scholars but also some Western commentators worried about financial instability.
Suppose you raise $15,000 for a charitable cause. You plan to invest the money in the capital markets for a few years and then give it away. Altruistic donors should generally be less risk-averse than selfish donors, so it might make sense to invest that money in high-risk securities.
One way to do this is just to invest in regular risky stocks. Ibbotson Associates reports the following geometric average returns over the period 1925-2000. (Note that these figures do not consider capital-gains taxes.)
|Small-company stocks
|Large-company stocks
|Long-term government bonds
|Treasury bills
To do better than 12.4%, an investor could take a leveraged position in a small-company stock. Stock brokers allow investors to open margin accounts through which to borrow money to buy more stocks. Investors are allowed to borrow up to 50% of the purchase price, so if you have $5,000, you could borrow another $5,000 and buy $10,000 worth of stock. Since the expected return on your stock (say 7%) would be larger than the expected return on your debt (say 4%), you would, on average, improve your returns. The Federal Reserve enforces a minimum maintenance margin of 25% on margin accounts, so the power of leverage is not unlimited.
In practice, it may be better to put one's money into leveraged funds that are able to borrow much closer to the risk-free rate, though it's also important to consider the expense ratios and other relevant features of such funds (see pp. 8-9 of Dean P. Foster, Sham M. Kakade, and Orit Ronen, "Early Retirement Using Leveraged Investments").
Options as leverage
Another way to achieve leverage, in theory at least, is by buying call options, especially far out-of-the-money ones.
As the concept of a replicating portfolio makes clear, calls are theoretically equivalent to leveraged stock positions, with the amount of leverage increasing with the strike price. Leverage can also be achieved with futures. Unlike leverage through margin accounts, the leverage implicit in these investments must be based on an interest rate near the risk-free rate, or else arbitrage would be possible (Foster, Kakade, and Ronen, p. 19).
Here is an Excel workbook that allows the user to calculate theoretical expected options returns based on two different formulas. The first is an instantaneous expected rate of return that uses the formula
(annualized expected instantaneous option return - risk-free rate) = (expected annualized stock return - risk-free rate) * (stock price / option price) * (delta of option).
See, e.g., p. 687 of Robert L. McDonald, Derivatives Markets, 2nd edition, 2006, or this link.
The second formula is taken from Mark Rubinstein, "A Simple Formula for the Expected Rate of Return of an Option over a Finite Holding Period," Journal of Finance 39:5 (1984): pp. 1503-1509. (I assume the investor's estimate of volatility is the same as the market's estimate.)
Here's an example calculation using the workbook. Assume a stock is currently at $40, has an expected annual arithmetic return of 11%, has an arithmetic dividend yield of 2%, and has a volatility of logarithmic returns of 0.3. Suppose we buy a European call option on Aug. 21, 2007, with strike price $50, set to expire on Dec. 21, 2007. We plan to sell the option on Oct. 21, 2007. Our annualized instantaneous expected return is then 80%, and our annualized expected return using the Rubinstein formula is 109%. (Note that annualization is valid because the expected value of a product is the product of the expected values for independent random variables.) "Expected" returns here are not the same as "typical" returns; usually, option prices decrease over time. If, instead of selling the option on Oct. 21, we held it to maturity, there's only a 13% chance it would pay out anything at all.
One investing-advice article reports that far out-of-the-money LEAP (long-term) call options have extremely high risk but possibly also extremely high expected returns.
Theory meets data
Are such high expected returns confirmed by the actual data? In at least one study they were. The following figures are taken from p. 993 of "Expected Option Returns" by Joshua D. Coval and Tyler Shumway, The Journal of Finance, 56.3 (2001): pp. 983-1009. They represent weekly returns for European S&P 500 call options between January 1990 and October 1995; expiration times of the options were roughly one month. (The authors also computed average daily returns on S&P 100 calls between 1986 and 1995; the results were comparable and, if anything, even higher.)
|Strike price - stock price ($)
|-15 to -10
|-10 to -5
|-5 to 0
|0 to 5
|5 to 10
|Expected weekly return (%)
|Median weekly return (%)
|Minimum weekly return (%)
|Maximum weekly return (%)
It's not clear from the paper whether these weekly returns assume five full trading days per week or whether they represent average returns from week to week, including non-trading days. If the former, we can assume 252 trading days per year and compute a naive yearly expected return of (1.0413)(252/7) = 4.29, or 329%. In the latter case, we have (1.0413)(365.24/7) = 8.26, or 726%. These returns are based on options prices calculated as an average of bid and ask quotes, so actual returns should be somewhat lower. The figures also ignore broker transaction costs. And of course, as a glance at the median weekly returns shows, the risk involved is substantial.
At least one other study found drastically different results. In "The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance," Stewart D. Hodges, Robert G. Tompkins, and William T. Ziemba examined S&P 500 and FTSE 100 American index-futures options from 1985 to 2002 and found that monthly/quarterly returns were, on the whole, unimpressive or even negative (p. 10). At a few strike-price levels, calls had average returns of 5%, 7%, or 13%, but others had returns of -3%, -7% or -14%. Worst were the farthest out-of-the-money options, with average returns of -96% or lower. The authors found similar results for options on British Pound/US Dollar futures, except (surprisingly) for the most out-of-the-money ones, which averaged a 329% return (p. 14).
A 2007 paper by Sophie Xiaoyan Ni, "Stock Option Returns: A Puzzle," addresses directly the conflict between theory and evidence. She notes in the "Abstract":
Under very weak assumptions, the expected returns of European call options must be positive and increasing in the strike price. This paper investigates the returns to call options on individual stocks that do not have an ex-dividend day prior to expiration. The main findings are that over the 1996 to 2005 period (1) out-of-the-money calls have negative average returns and (2) average returns of high strike calls are lower than those of low strike calls. Preliminary evidence is presented that is consistent with investor risk-seeking contributing to the puzzling call returns.
Pages 42-46 of the paper include the following data:
|Strike price / Stock price
|<= 0.85
|0.85 to 0.95
|0.95 to 1.05
|1.05 to 1.15
|Average one-month return of holding call option to expiration using
bid-ask-midpoint prices (%)
|Average two-month return of holding call option to expiration using
bid-ask-midpoint prices (%)
|Average three-month return of holding call option to expiration
using bid-ask-midpoint prices (%)
|Average one-month return of holding call option to expiration using
ask prices (%)
According to "Returns from Trading Call Options" (2013):
I find a general and consistent result that call option returns are low on average and decreasing in the strike price. Only in-the-money options held for a month exhibit positive returns. Deep out-the-money options deliver large negative returns on average, consistent with risk-seeking investing on the part of buyers.
"Is There Money to Be Made Investing in Options? A Historical Perspective" (2006):
including options in the portfolio most often results in underperformance relative to the benchmark portfolio. However, a portfolio that incorporates written options can outperform the benchmark on a raw and risk-adjusted basis.
Reader comments
A reader of this article wrote to me with some of his/her thoughts. The remainder of this section mostly quotes from this reader's message, with some modifications on my part.
What got me interested in this topic was the book Lifecycle Investing by Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff; they advocate the use of leverage for retirement investing. I found the overall idea was good, although they don't go into much detail about the mechanics of leverage. They do suggest deep in-the-money calls of the S&P500 as one option to obtain leverage.
The authors do go into more detail in "Diversification Across Time". They show that for 1-year S&P500 calls, you have to go deep in the money ("leverage" ratio of 2:1) to get an effective rate of interest that will make the strategy work. There's not enough detail in what they publish to implement the strategy.
I found Enhanced Indexing Strategies by Tristan Yates to be of some use. He discusses several strategies, and the strategy of yearly buying deep in-the-money 2-year call options and then selling them after one year made sense to me.
In a taxable account, my guess is that using margin to obtain leverage would be more successful. In a tax advantaged account, a call option strategy might work. But after reading the literature, I'm not entirely convinced of that. The advantage of margin in a taxable account is its tax deductibility. Of course, that depends on one's marginal tax rate. With the appropriate tax laws, it's possible to lose money on a pretax basis using margin, but make money on a post-tax basis. That's because your interest may be fully deductible against income, but your capital gains can be deferred and is often taxed at a lower rate than income; sometimes dividends are also taxed at a lower rate.
More references on options returns:
Without knowing more, it seems to me that using ordinary margin borrowing is the more sure way to achieve leverage. That form of leverage is transparent and doesn't rely on theoretical formulas for how derivatives (options or futures) should be priced. In the meantime, it would be interesting to explore alternatives beyond margin borrowing in case some of them prove to offer higher expected returns in practice and not just in theory.


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EWG Wrongheaded Attack on Bacon "Additives"
November 24, 2014


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