text:
Do defenses really wear out over the course of a game? Do defenses benefit from long drives that give them more time to rest on the sideline? Guest columnist Ben Baldwin investigates.
08 Mar 2010
by Bill Barnwell
Before the 2009 season, I went on our then-new Twitter account to ask about 2,500 or so followers how they thought a variety of NFL players would perform in the upcoming season. We got somewhere between 20 and 50 predictions for each player in question, yielding a "Wisdom of Crowds" prediction.
Now that the 2009 season is over, it's time to review. I'll be looking back at what the crowd said about each of the players in question, what actually happened, and what both they and I should have seen to help improve each of our thoughts on the player. (For those of you who are on Team Potato, I'll also note where I foolishly disagreed with the crowd.)
Remember that the respondents were asked to give a stat line for the player in question assuming that said player participated in all 16 games and did not suffer any major injuries. You can find the original articles here and here.
First, the quarterbacks.
Predicted: 3,289 passing yards, 19 TD, 15 INT
Actual: 2,924 passing yards, 16 TD, 16 INT
Cassel was always going to be overrated heading into 2009; he was going from an elite offense to a terrible one, and from a really easy schedule to what ended up being just about an average one. Most people really underestimate how huge changes in context can be for players, and while Cassel's numbers don't look that far off (and the prediction would have been within 170 passing yards if Cassel had played 16 games at the same average YPG) from the predicted totals, the touchdown-to-interception ratio is off. I actually gave a predicted line of 3,400 yards with 18 TD and 20 INT here, which was too much volume.
Predicted: 3,589 passing yards, 22 TD, 14 INT
Actual: 2,916 passing yards, 22 TD, 14 INT
Not a bad job by our respondents, getting those touchdown and interception totals spot-on, but Ryan also missed what amounts to three games with an injury. If you extend his average per-game performance to 16 games, he had 27 TD and 17 INT, but strangely, he hits... 3,589 passing yards. So our panel had it square on the nose one way or another. I said his totals would be lower than the predicted figures, but I can't claim that as a success because that only happened thanks to injury.
Predicted: 4,013 passing yards, 31 TD, 12 INT
Actual: 4,398 passing yards, 23 TD, 13 INT
Neither I nor our readers expected Brady's schedule to be so tough. I pegged his TD total at closer to 35, which just didn't happen. The interception figure is right on.
Predicted: 3,067 passing yards, 19 TD, 22 INT
Actual: 4,202 passing yards, 33 TD, 7 INT
No one saw that coming. Certainly, I didn't; I agreed with the readers, noting Favre's ridiculously easy schedule from the year before, while questioning his health. He was fine, and while he had a fluky INT rate for most of the year, he blew away anyone's expectations.
Predicted: 3,754 passing yards, 26 TD, 16 INT
Actual: 4,483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
I pointed out that Romo's historical yards per game rates simply did not jibe with his predicted totals; thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin, Romo had his best seasonal YPG as a pro. He cut his historical interception rate in half, which should regress to the mean next year.
Predicted: 3,220 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT
Actual: 3,618 passing yards, 20 TD, 15 INT
Sadly, no one went out and just predicted "pain". I suggested he'd go 3,450/18/12, but there's not much of a difference between that and the predicted total. When I do this next year, whoever just types "average" in reply gets a pizza trophy.
Predicted: 3,418 passing yards, 22 TD, 15 INT
Actual: 4,021 passing yards, 27 TD, 14 INT
Eli seemed like an obvious candidate for regression, but thanks to the emergence of Steve Smith and the decay of the Giants' running game, he took his game to the next level and had his best season as a pro.
Predicted: 3,766 passing yards, 24 TD, 16 INT
Actual: 3,666 passing yards, 27 TD, 26 INT
I wondered how on Earth Jay Cutler was going to get to 3,766 yards with that corps of receivers. The answer, apparently, was "The offensive line falls apart and Matt Forte falls down." (More on him next time.) A crowd will never be able to predict an interception rate as high as Cutler's; too many people will regress his numbers to the mean to make that possible.
Predicted: 3,463 passing yards, 23 TD, 15 INT
Actual: 4,328 passing yards, 26 TD, 12 INT
I figured that Roethlisberger's yardage total was too high and that he'd struggle to get that many touchdowns, but he hit his TD peak from 2007 and his YPA went back towards his rookie and sophomore levels, blowing away even the predicted totals that I thought were high. KUBIAK is a long ways away from generation, but I'd imagine it will regress Roethlisberger a bunch heading into 2010, regardless of what happens to him off the field.
I'll be back later this week with running backs, including the one thing the crowd saw coming in 2009 that no one else did.
73 comments, Last at 02 Apr 2010, 11:02pm by Tim Wilson
Nice HR reference w/ pizza trophy
I don't get it.
What, no love for the Clubber Lang reference?
Ah, the prediction: Pain.
I didn't realize I got it until I saw your note.
Lesson learned:
crowd is right, but passing yards need to be added or extracted by experience.
Barnwell, I think you are hyping up the schedule too much.... " nobody predicted his schdule would be this easy, or his schedule would be that hard etc.". Why can't it be that people were "right" or "wrong"? Some people might have looked factored in schedule.
I'm not bashing you, but it seems like the "wisdom of the crowd" did a better job predicting than you did.
I know Brady did worse than I'd expect ( I was wrong)
Cutler did worse than I'd expect ( I was wrong)
Favre did better than I'd expect ( I was wrong)
I was more Bullish on Aaron Rodgers ( right)
I was more Bullish on Romo than most people (right)
I was more Bullish on Matt Schaub (right)
I was more Bullish on Eli Manning ( right)
I was more negative on Jason Campbell ( wrong stat wise), but then again how many garbage yards did he pick up? His team is picking 4th in the NFL draft. How many people that predicted good stats saw good things happening for the Redskins?
Phillip Rivers had a better year than I would have guessed last year.
Next year I'm still putting my money on Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers will win 2+ super bowls in the next 10 years and Rodgers an MVP.
C, I don't recall you ever being negative about Jason Campbell...
but that's the thing, if you look at his stats, they don't look THAT bad. But then consider he was on the 29th best team in the league ( with a weak last place schedule), lost to the Lions, and that his stats were heavily skewed and picked up when his team was losing...
It's like being on a crappy NBA team and picking up garbage points when the game is over. Or being a WR on a crappy team that picks up catches beause his team throws a lot, but can't do anything when the game is on the line.
His stats are weird because of his style of play. Ultra conservative QB, who picks up garbage stats ( but doesn't have THAT many bad picks but he does fumble). It's death by 1,000 cuts to lose a game, rather than a Cutler-like figure throwing 4 picks and making it obvious why his team lost. At some point, you have to take chances ( and not throw all checkdowns), and that's why your team losses.
That's probably why stats people ( Barnwell) like Campbell ( his stats weren't terrible), and I hate him so much ( his play WAS terrible).
I still think it's hilarious that you think a QB in the final year of his contract should "take chances" rather than go for options that the playcaller specifically puts in there.
C'mon, the Redskins playcalling situation was a disaster last year. Sherman Lewis's previous playcalling was Bingo at a retirement home, and that's not a joke. That's Art Shell Raiders-level incompetence.
Be fair and criticize the guy for something he should have done right - like his amazingly poor pocket presence.
C, I don't recall you ever being negative about Jason Campbell...
I admit, I thought this feature was just a gimmick, but it turns out to be pretty interesting. Nice idea!
Is Team Potato derogatory to EMB fans posting in the TAtEr section? If so, I approve.
TATE is taking over the world !
Hah, no. It's a reference to this.
There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.
-Donovan McNabb
A couple head-scratcher comments up there from Bill. He'd have been better off with Brady and Cassell just saying "pretty good job everybody."
"Neither I nor our readers expected Brady's schedule to be so tough."
What supports that statement? The prediction was actually pretty good--guessed high on TDs, but yards and interceptions were right there. (But note the crowd was still far more conservative than Bill's prediction of 35 TDs.) I'd argue the schedule had far less to do with it than the fact it was Tom Brady--give him a different name and everybody would have guessed lower on the TDs.
"Most people really underestimate how huge changes in context can be for players"
Again, he gives the respondents far too little credit; they seem to have done a very nice job predicting there'd be lots of struggles with the Chiefs. Reality basically split the difference between their prediction and Bill's.
Are you saying you expected self criticism from Bill?
Hahahaha. Good one.
And as somebody below caught, Bill couldn't even look up the numbers correctly--Brady had 28 TDs, not 23. So, the crowd was only high by 3. That's pretty awesome. So much for the BS about not being able to predict how hard the season would be, yada, yada, yada.
Also, Roethlisberger's career high TD level in 2007 was 32, not 26. So no, he didn't achieve it last year.
This piece really seemed sloppy.
I have to say it's getting a bit old that every single post about a player that outperformed FO's expectations is qualified with "but he'll regress to the mean next year." First off, this is closer to tautology than prediction. Second, it comes off lazy half the time. You say we should look at context, which is true, but one should also pay attention to its evolution over the course of multiple seasons. For example, I highly doubt Romo is going to regress to his career average in interceptions next year. However, as FO's Audibles sections say, none of you guys watch many Cowboys games, which is fine since you have teams you prefer to watch... but Romo's interception drop had to do with more things than the emergence of a #1 wideout and good offensive line play. In fact, our o-line played a bit worse this year.
Exactly, Romo's interception totals dropped, in part, because he made the conscious decision to throw the ball away more and to willingly just take sacks instead of always trying to make plays when there was nothing there.
I agree. It's tough to predict players will return to the mean when a) the QB is young and thus still developing, not to mention has a smaller sample of games to work off and b) the assumption is that the FO mean is correct to begin with. Many of the guys listed here - Cassell, Ryan, Romo - will likely keep getting better as they continue to grow and their offenses mature (barring injury of course). The only player listed who is likely to "return to the mean" would be Favre if he returns, and that has more to do with his age and the large body of work that can be evaluated to make a more accurate mean (we know he historically throws lots on INTs, so it's unlikely he'd throw only 7 again).
I don't like that " we can't possibly be wrong" attitude, and the " it was all the schedule" attitude.
I think with QB's people often count last season as " what is"... when Kurt Warner was having weak seasons a few years ago, it was assumed he was done.. Favre was done... Byron Leftwich was "good" when his stats were "ok"....
Getting rid of TO was expected to be a death blow to Romo, but it let him focus on the process ( instead of a ball hungry player) that let him settle down in much the same way Eli Manning settled down when Plexyglass left and to a lesser extend Shockey.
Rather than having guys that you HAD to force the ball to, it allowed him to more so play QUARTERBACK instead of ball distributer which can be harder than it sounds. Tony Romo is a sharp guy. If he wasn't in the NFL I'm sure he'd be very successful at business, more so than your average guy. He's well read, funny, witty, smart etc. I still don't understand why Donovan Mcnabb and Tony Romo get so much hate.
Among other things, relative to media expectations, McNabb and Romo have often come off as not serious enough about football. When asked if his team had what it took to win a SB, for the 3rd time in the interview, Romo wryly said "I don't know, I've never won a Super Bowl before." I think some wannabe Rick Reilly once wrote an entire article about how Romo is a piece of shit because he wears his hat backwards in interviews. We all remember the McNabb-partying-after-the-Championship-loss debacles.
One thing that would be interesting is if someone could write a comparative study of football players' attitudes towards football. Who is Sean Taylor, "we play a kids' game for a king's ransom"? Hines Ward, saying Roethlisberger should play with a concussion because it's an "important" game? Manning, always saying the right thing; Leaf, saying "I'm going to Vegas." Deion, dancing down the sidelines; Barry, flipping the ball. These things are often looked at just in terms of flamboyance or apathy or passion or whatever, but there's also this "seriousness" aspect. We all suspend disbelief and act like this is some REAL SERIOUS BUSINESS and forget that we're really just cuaght up. Some players are too, and some aren't. Some of those that aren't will always disappoint fans -- think Vince Carter in the NBA, someone who never played to his potential, but also probably has a few less miles on his knees for it, and who had more fun during the offseason enjoying his cash for it. Brett Favre is an interesting case... busts his ass in the season, does jack shit out of it. Success in championships will always be the metric the mainstream pays attention to though. Look up Lawrence Taylor's answer to the question, "what can you do that no other linebacker can?" (Spoiler: Answer wasn't football-related.)
Anyway, back to Romo. He got a lot more serious this year. I think that the media pressure and whatnot caught up to him. Either way, he certainly reeled in the "he's having fun out there" persona quite a bit. Media liked him more, commentators liked him WAY more. I watched every game, and he easily could've had 15 INTs again, but you know, last year he could've had 25. Few bad/good bounces change things... if his back doesn't give out (big if) and he plays 5 more years, I see him averaging 28 and 13, Brady-like numbers if not truly Brady-like production. But as long as he has his smirk and his backwards hat... he's just not a good stand-in for the BMOC masculine fantasies sportswriters have of all athletes. And who knows, maybe that lack of seriousness will keep him from breaking through, but... and I kind of wanna stab myself for saying this... he seems to be... having more fun than most players (when not writhing on the ground in back pain -- thanks again for keeping him in during garbage time vs. Philly, Wade!).
I'd tend to agree that Romo's $hit grin, " I'm just having fun out there" hurts his perception, just like Mcnabb probably hurts his after a bad game when he's smiling, throws his hands up and casually jobs back to the sidelines. Just like Eli Manning's Aww shucks shoulder shrug hurts his perception.
I think both guys are very smart. Mcnabb is a film study buff and knows his stuff, Romo is a real assertive astute guy. I'll throw Eli Manning in there as well because he's smart too. The thing is I think these guys don't just show up and "get their game on", I think they more or less approach it as an academic TEST of X's and O's under stress. It's a thinking man's game, they did their homework, are expecting to see certain coverages etc, and then they execute. They aren't getting all hyped up on their emotions, they are trying to think clearly/rationally during the game.
Michael Vick on the other hand just shows up... gets real into the game ( because he didn't do his work Mon-Sat, and the crowd/announcers love seeing him try and wing it.
Drew Brees is doing his pre-game rah rah before the game and he's the best of both worlds ( he is studious) for the Media, same with Favre... During the season ( not off season).
I think fans read a lot into the body language, dress, perception of these guys a lot. I think with WR's you often get MORE credit for being a hot dog self promoter ( think Chad Johnson over Andre Johnson). With QB you seem to get the most credit with a strong "leadership" perception... not an immature punk like JP Losman.
" I highly doubt Romo is going to regress to his career average in interceptions next year."
But I would expect him to regress towards his career average, which is what regression to the mean refers to. It is not predicting that he will move exactly to his mean, but simply stating that his numbers are going to move towards the mean.
But I would expect him to regress towards his career average, which is what regression to the mean refers to.
My nephew was exactly 3 feet tall in October, then 3 feet 2 inches in February. I expect he's regressed to his lifetime average height since then.
Also, the number of living dinosaurs on the Earth is zero RIGHT NOW, but wait until "regression toward the mean" takes place.
I don't think I've ever read the word "regress" so many times in a single article, but to the auteur's credit I don't actually believe that he thinks things never change between measurements save for random variation.
Romo has been a starting QB for 4 years now, and in 3 of those years, his interception rate was above 3%. In 2009, it was 1.6%. So unless you think Romo, who was about average at avoiding interceptions for his first three years as a starter, has suddenly become the best in the NFL at that skill, his interception rate will likely be higher in 2010 than it was in 2009.
To put things another way, from 1999-2008, there were 41 instances of a QB starting a full season with an interception rate below 2%. In only 6 of those instances was that QB's interception rate below 2% again the next year. And the QB's that did repeat that low interception rate had lower career interception rates than Romo does.
Now, none of this guarantees a regression to the mean. It is possible for Romo to beat the odds and have a very low interception rate next year, but it wouldn't be wise to bet on it (otherwise, it wouldn't be called "beating the odds").
The issue isn't with the concept itself but the way the concept is used around here--that is, as a substitute for analysis. An unusually high or low streak should be the occasion for further investigation, rather than an off-hand "he'll regress to the mean next year, moving on...." The numbers themselves might *suggest* this, but they sure as heck don't explain why it is. Aren't we supposed to disentangle correlation and causation here? The best case in point is the Roethlisberger para.
Alex51, thank you for responding before my head had a chance to explode.
Another look at regression to the mean, on the opposite side of the INT spectrum, is Jay Cutler. Last year his INT rate was 4.7% against a career average of 3.5% For CHI fans sake, I (hope and) expect him to regress toward the mean.
Statistical regression to the mean does not refer to scores being above or below the mean, but refers to a tendency of outliers to move towards the mean on subsequent measures.
BTW, I don't think auter means what you think it does, but I like the idea of FO the movie.
Delta, while you are "more" correct than the poster above who attempted to refute you in an odd way, I don't think you're understanding the argument.
Typically, regression to the mean suggests regression to the TRUE mean. The argument put forth is that his true mean is now different from his career mean, because he is a different quarterback now. Whereas previously his play might resulted in a "true" interception rate of 3.2% (or whatever), his new interception rate may be 2.5%. Or it could all be hogwash, and his true rate is indeed 3.2%. But that's the argument framed above.
Obviously, Barnwell didn't specify either one, his statement was far too broad to say anything.
Given the fact that the Cowboys won't be playing the AFC West and the NFC South this season, I'd say the odds of Romo's interception rate going up are pretty darn good.
First, they faced an above-average slate of pass defenses this year by DVOA.
Second, no one is disputing (thus far) that his interception rate will regress next year. His 2009 rate is unsustainable. The question is to what extent it will regress.
Second, no one is disputing (thus far) that his interception rate will regress next year. His 2009 rate is unsustainable.
Really? Than what the hell have we been arguing about? All Barnwell meant was that his 2009 interception rate was unsustainable and wouldn't be repeated.
The question is to what extent it will regress.
Barnwell didn't specify exactly how far it would regress, so I don't see why people are complaining about his statement unless they disagree with his basic assumption that Romo's low interception rate was largely due to luck. If he had said "regress towards the mean" instead of "regress to the mean", would everybody be ok with it?
"who attempted to refute you in an odd way"
to say the least
the poster above who attempted to refute you in an odd way
Am I the odd one? It's not clear.
Regression is well defined for things that have some "true" value that doesn't change between measurements. The odd thing is to think that everything you can measure multiple times is inherently stable. You need more than just the ability to measure things to expect regression, even for outliers. I'm the tallest person in my family no matter how many times we line up and check.
Typically, regression to the mean suggests regression to the TRUE mean
No. It refers explicitly to some measured value. You're thinking with logic, not with statistics. Don't fret, your way is better usually.
Statistical regression to the mean does not refer to scores being above or below the mean, but refers to a tendency of outliers to move towards the mean on subsequent measures.
Yes, but that tendency isn't always there. In some situations you may expect the outliers to be even farther from the mean. Let's say a class is given two tests and you need to get at least 70 on both to pass and then the passing grades are assigned on a curve. The people who did poorly may have less motivation for the second test, knowing they can't pass anyway, and the people who did well may have more motivation and do better. I'm not claiming that regression will not occur for measurements involving football or Romo, I'm just saying that regression is not a universal truth to be expected for all things that can be quantified multiple times.
BTW, I don't think auter means what you think it does, but I like the idea of FO the movie.
It is a French word that means "author" and it can be applied to the creator of artistic endeavors in basically any medium. But sure, it is most commonly used in English for movie-makers. FO the movie... I dunno, I'll wait till it's on cable.
Sh*t, after reading through your responses four or five times, I finally understand that you seem to simply be arguing that sometimes, some measures (like one's height relative to the average familial height) there is not going to be regression to the mean. So, in the case of Romo, do you think his interception frequency will increase (regress towards the mean) or decrease (move even farther from the mean) next year and why? What factor for Romo will be the equivalent of grading on the curve in your example above?
after reading through your responses four or five times, I finally understand that you seem to simply be arguing that sometimes, some measures (like one's height relative to the average familial height) there is not going to be [sic] regression to the mean
Just for parsimony, I read this four or five times.
What factor for Romo will be the equivalent of grading on the curve in your example above?
That's an odd question. I'm not actually making any prediction about Romo, but it is really easy to come up with plausible reasons why a football player might get better (or worse) from one year to the next. It might be that there is a general trend for interception rates to decline for players Romo's age because they get better. For Romo specifically, it might be that he changed his criterion and is now more conservative. Who knows? I'm not making any claim or prediction about Romo's stats. If your point is that it is reasonable for a person to believe that Romo will throw more interceptions because he was an outlier, I agree. However, I also think it was silly to point to every disagreement between predicted and actual stats and say they are all flukes.
"However, I also think it was silly to point to every disagreement between predicted and actual stats and say they are all flukes."
It is silly; however, I don't think I ever said this, nor do I think it is true. If I created that impression, then I apologize.
Oh, sorry, I didn't mean you. My original comment criticized this tendency obliquely and I was now making it explicit; I meant to direct that comment at the author of the article.
That would be "auteur", old chap. "Auter", were it a word, would be pronounced "oh-tay", not "oh-ter". It would also probably be a verb, maybe meaning "to author", which the French would in fact most likely render as "ecrire"* (for literal uses) or creer* (for figurative ones).
And no, of course not everything measurable regresses to the mean, and yes, of course Romo is enormously likely to regress towards and perhaps even past his mean interception rate, be the rate in question historical or counterfactual.
*Apologies for lack of accents - I'm blowed if I know how to do them in HTML.
You should be correcting the person who misquoted me; I spelled it correctly.
So Buckwheat was French? Who knew.
I seem to remember from the initial publication of the responses that you threw out "troll" answers, right? Any idea what those troll answers would do to the averages? I could see a diehard Favre fan or two trolling this question and pushing the crowd wisdom closer to actual. "Wisdom of crowds" also includes outliers. It turns out we need a buncha yokels and sarcastic weirdos to make us smart as a whole.
So RaiderJoe's input would give a better estimate of JaMarcus Russell?
and, might I finally add, No.
Pretty sure rj's eternal optimism/blind spot would have resulted in a prediction along the lines of 3,600, 24, 15. In fact, I am pretty sure I saw something like this.
Not so outlandish that you fall down laughing, but enough for you to say "Closing time, and the Sierra Nevada tap's got air in it."
What happened to the high/low predictions? Those were interesting bookends for the average.
"A crowd will never be able to predict an interception rate as high as Cutler's; too many people will regress his numbers to the mean to make that possible."
I predict he'll have 2,123 interceptions this season!
well, there goes the average, shot to hell.
That prediction also probably makes the median double or triple, too, right?
(yes, kidding)
I guess my big gripe is the same one I had in September. I just don't care about conventional wisdom. Is that not what we're measuring here?
I come to FO to get AWAY from conventional wisdom.
Having said that it looks like it's a fairly popular idea, so I'm not saying stop it just because one person doesn't give a shit. If it's getting people to click on the link instead of the little X in the upper right...
Then you came to the wrong place, as Bill's projections demonstrate. He was right there with the crowd. The problem, as always, is that awesome historical stats don't mean you can see the future. It makes you one helluva Monday morning quarterback, but it probably won't get you banned from betting in Vegas.
I haven't seen this in a bit, but a couple years back Aaron used to pretty routinely respond to posts like this stressing how these weren't ever intended to be predictive tools. But, of course, many (including, rather oddly, some of the FO staff) wants to use them that way.
Don't you need to have a conventional baseline to see if your unconventional wisdom is actually superior?
"I figured that Roethlisberger's yardage total was too high and that he'd struggle to get that many touchdowns, but he hit his TD peak from 2007"
I'm not sure I understand this comment. He threw 32 TD's in 2007.
Yeah, and Brady had 28 TDs this season, not 23. A lot of the information here is off.
That was an excellent tease for the next article at the end.
I'm not sure it even remotely makes sense (or were you being sarcastic?).
How can a crowd (not an infinite number of people, but a pretty big number, right?) do anything that no one else does, if, by implicationm the crowd sort of represents a sloppy mish-mash of everybody....?
Bill, did you mean "none of the so-called experts" rather than nobody? That would make more sense.
It makes zero sense. It's the same as saying "Nobody saw this coming except for everybody."
That's just not true of this particular "crowd", though, is it? This is 20-50 people - quite a small sample and, crucially, by no means a random one. It shouldn't be too surprising if the collective opinion of a small group of intelligent, statistically-oriented hardcore fans produced a much better prediction than almost anybody else in at least one of the several things they predicted. Admittedly "almost nobody" would probably have been more accurate than "nobody" - there's bound to be someone else out there who thought the same - but I'd call it mild hyperbole rather than outright nonsense.
But if this article is any indication of how the RB one will be structured, he's not talking about the FO crowd versus outside commentators (who could be total morons and/or lacking key statistical references) but rather against himself and possibly other FO staff. If that sort of insular crowd accurately predicted something that absolutely blindsided FO staff, that's going to either be chance or a case of the staff making a really bad guess despite having the same tools at their disposal.
I sort of got my tongue tied up in all that explanation, but to put it simpler, I'd liken it to the class predicting something the professor absolutely couldn't see coming. That's either going to be luck or a really bad effort by the professor.
I assumed that Bill meant, as you say, "none of the so-called experts."
I think it was a good tease, because I am now looking forward to that article to see at what he was hinting. I believe that is the point of a tease.
Plus, there seems to be an awful lot of Bill Barnwell bashing here lately, so I thought it would be nice to be positive one time.
Finally, I concur with Mr Shush's comment. I would have written something similar, but he already has.
Maybe he is getting bashed but miss-posting multiple stats in this short an article is pretty sloppy. And they weren't even simply typos--he uses them in his arguments like that whole part about nobody being able to predict how tough the Pats schedule would be. Ouch. And how long does it take to scan the posts and realize you messed up? The mistake was caught yesterday and Bill's been posting Extra Points today.
If only on a statistically based website there were some statistical methodology that could be employed to determine the accuracy of the crowd's predictions.
Romo's largest problems in previous years were inexperience and crappy pass protection. He, obviously, had more experience in the most recent season, and his protection was somewhat better. Strangely, when, in the playoff game against the Vikings, his pass protection collapsed, his stats went straight into the sewer.
I didn't think Favre would remain healthy, and was quite happy to be wrong. I hope I'm wrong again next season.
Will, I'm very disappointed that you didn't join the Will Allen discussion thread.
Eh, I came to it kinda' late; a certain overtime game 6 weeks ago temporarily dampened my enthusiasm for all things NFL, so I've been dropping in here a little less frequently.
Bill, can you do the same thing with KUBIAK?
Or, line up
for each of the guy's listed in TD/INT/Yards? Would be interesting to compare and contrast the different approaches I think. A chance to celebrate either the quality of Kubiak or the quality of your readership.
Regarding Brady, he actually threw 28 TDs (not 23 as is stated in the article). That brings both the crowd and Bill much closer to the mark. Particularly close for the crowd, who did a great job overall.
Also, the author's talk about not being able to predict the toughness of the schedule Brady faced seems a tad irrelevant given his track record. Throwing out his first year as a starter and the crazy-good 2007, he's been remarkably consistent: 23-28 TDs vs. 12-14 INTs. While I certainly wouldn't say it was unreasonable to predict 31 TDs (or even 35 as the author did), he had eclipsed 30 only once before in his career.
Ok, but Brady's supporting cast in 2009 was far more similar to his supporting cast in crazy-good 2007 than in any other year of his career. Throwing 23-28 TDs to Caldwell and Gaffney ought to suggest more than 28 TDs to Moss and Welker.
What's your point? This article is about how well the crowd could predict stats, and they predicted well. You seem to be arguing that they shouldn't have done so well, but it's irrelevant because they did.
No, his point is that Bill put the wrong numbers down which pretty much invalidated his comments. He took the crowd to task for being off by way more than they really were.


text:
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text:
Trinity Dissertation Loan Request
Trinity Student dissertations are available for loan upon request. Please see the following rules to borrow a dissertation from the Trinity library.
List of Trinity Student Dissertations
Violation of the following will result in fines, loss of degree, or dismissal from school.
Rules and Regulations
- Students may keep the dissertation for up to four weeks at a time. Students shall return the dissertation, in safe packaging, in the form and condition in which the dissertation was presented to them.
- No marks should be in any way put upon the dissertation itself.
- Unless otherwise noted, students are able to copy any parts of the dissertation at their own copying expense. Special care should be taken, however, not to break the binding of the dissertation.
- Students borrowing the dissertation shall respect any Copyright arrangements or indication, as marked in the dissertation by its writer. Students who are borrowing the dissertation should take special care to search in the front of the dissertation for any such Copyright statements. If the dissertation has a Copyright insignia in any of its pages, the student shall abide by the stipulations therein.
- Prior to the due date, an extension for this loan can be requested by postal mail at the address above or email at firstname.lastname@example.com.
- U.S. students may borrow up to two dissertations and International students may borrow one dissertation from the Trinity library during any four week period. I understand the rules and regulations stated above and agree to abide by them.
Trinity College of the Bible and Theological Seminary
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text:
Joined: September 28, 2009
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Recent Comments
"No Woman No Cry"---- simply it means about, "f you don't have a woman you will not cry" or "don't cry woman" , "if you have a woman or don't have, there is nothing to cry for" or many other meanings of such effect.
But to me , if we think the depth inside it, why not we think----
"If there was no woman, there wouldn't be and baby arriving the world and the very announcement of an infant is nothing but a cry"
Thx to all.


text:
Paid Notice: Deaths
Published: May 20, 2008
SWASEY--Emily C., on Sunday, May 18th. Cherished daughter of Patricia Swasey of Greenwich, CT and J. Loring Swasey of New York City. Loving sister of Courtenay Swasey. Granddaughter of Angela Rinehimer of Jupiter, FL and Cherry Lawrence of Bronxville, NY. Stepdaughter of Sharon Sager Swasey. Memorial Service, Thursday, May 22nd at 3pm. Christ Church, 254 E. Putnam Ave., Greenwich CT 06830. In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to Laurel House, 1616 Washington Blvd., Stamford CT 06902, (203)324-1816.


text:
NFL Power Rankings (cont.)
Last Week: 25
Seattle Seahawks (5-7)Remember that public flogging that Seahawks head coach Jim Mora administered to Olindo Mare after the Seattle kicker missed two makeable field goals in a six-point Week 3 home loss to Chicago? Mare apparently got the message. He hasn't missed a field goal since, with his team-record 18th successful attempt in a row providing the winning points at home against San Francisco on Sunday. Mare is 21-of-23 on the year, with only those two misfires against the Bears.
Last Week: 20
San Francisco 49ers (5-7)Amidst another disappointing finish to another disappointing season in San Francisco, there's at least a little hope for the future being generated by the feel-good comeback of quarterback Alex Smith. That's two strong games in a row for the former No. 1 overall pick, and the 49ers have even changed their out-dated run-first mentality on offense and are putting Smith in the position to spread the field and do what he does best.
Last Week: 23
Carolina Panthers (5-7)By all rights, the Panthers should have been lucky this season to draw the AFC East on its schedule. The Bills, Jets and Dolphins are all at .500 or below, and even the first-place Patriots are on the downswing. But that's not how things have worked out for Carolina, which is 0-3 in its interconference games, with a trip to frosty Foxboro on tap this week. Had the Panthers fared differently in those games, they'd still be in the playoff hunt.
Last Week: 26
Chicago Bears (5-7)The good news has been in woefully short supply this season in Chicago, but that 91-yard rushing game turned in by Matt Forte against the Rams qualifies. The second-year running back has been mostly MIA this year, and the Bears need to make sure his rookie season wasn't a complete fluke as they begin to make their plans for 2010.
Last Week: 28
Oakland Raiders (4-8)Who said the Raiders are inconsistent? They've won once in September (at Kansas City), once in October (against Philadelphia), once in November (against Cincinnati), and once in December (at Pittsburgh). That kind of record really cranks up the pressure for Oakland's Jan. 3 finale at home against Baltimore.
Last Week: 22
Buffalo Bills (4-8)At least this long, dreary decade is almost over for the Bills and their beleaguered fans. What a disaster it has been following in the wake of the roaring '90s, with those four straight Super Bowl trips and eight playoff berths in 10 seasons. They didn't know it then, but for the Bills the highlight of the decade was playing for a playoff berth in Week 17 of 2004, only to get blown out at home by a Tommy Maddox-led Steelers team that was missing rookie Ben Roethlisberger and a slew of starters.
Last Week: 24
Washington Redskins (3-9)For all those proponents of overtime rule changes out there, please note the following: In this year's 10 overtime games, the team that has won the coin toss to start the sudden death period is just 5-5. Which means that the team that lost the overtime coin flip is also 5-5. On Sunday at home, the Redskins won the coin flip and still saw New Orleans prevail in overtime, 33-30. Playing defense in OT is part of the game, folks.
Last Week: 27
Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)Silver linings are few and far between for the Chiefs this season. It's hard to identify a strength to build on, given that only Oakland and Cleveland have scored fewer points in the AFC than Kansas City's 196, and nobody in the conference has allowed as many points as the Chiefs' 326. Plenty of work still to be done for Scott Pioli and Todd Haley.
Last Week: 29
Detroit Lions (2-10)I don't know about you, but I've seen enough of Matthew Stafford trying to play through that shoulder injury this season. What's the point of running your franchise quarterback out there for these last four meaningless games of the regular season? The Lions should let Stafford resume his work in next July's training camp.
Last Week: 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)On the other hand, Bucs rookie quarterback Josh Freeman needs to play out the string in Tampa Bay, getting past that putrid five-interception day at Carolina last week. Freeman didn't start until the Bucs' eighth game this year, and he can still progress plenty in this last month of the season.
Last Week: 32
Cleveland Browns (1-11)Has the light finally gone on for Brady Quinn? The Browns quarterback has had big games in two of the past three weeks, and his 271-yard, three-touchdown day in a 30-23 loss to San Diego was downright hope-inspiring. Quinn hasn't thrown a pick in his past three games, with seven touchdowns passing and one rushing score in that span.
Last Week: 31
St. Louis Rams (1-11)If there's one lock in next April's NFL Draft it's that the Rams select a quarterback of the future in the first round. How would Washington's Jake Locker or Oklahoma's Sam Bradford look in blue and gold?


text:
May 30,
click here for Regional Capsules
click here for
Saturday Regional Scores
Dingers, double plays and
Daniels deliver for ECU
By Phil Stanton
CollegeBaseballInsider.com Co-Founder
GREENVILLE, N.C. – East Carolina scored in
each of the first four innings and turned three timely double
plays as the top-seeded Pirates outscored fourth-seeded
Binghamton 11-7 in a first-round Greenville Regional game.
ECU (43-17) will face second-seed South Carolina
this evening at 6 p.m. The Bearcats (29-21), in their first NCAA
Tournament, meet third-seeded George Mason in an elimination
game this afternoon at 2 p.m.
"I'm excited and very proud of our effort," ECU
head coach Billy Godwin said. "We jumped out early and held off
late. Sometimes holding off is a tough thing to do."
The Pirates started quickly. Leadoff hitter Trent
Whitehead (2 for 4, 2 R, 2 RBI) hit the first pitch out to left
for his 7th homer to put ECU on the board. With one out, Stephen
Batts doubled to right, stole third and scored on a balk for a
2-0 advantage.
"I had my mind set that there was one pitch I was
looking for and if I didn't get it, I was going to take it,"
Whitehead said. "I got a good pitch to hit and luckily I made
The Bearcats threatened in the second as Joe
Charron reached on an error and moved to third on a base hit
Peter Bregartner. Jeff Abrams hit into a 5-4-2 double play C.J.
Lukaszewski grounded out to end the rally.
"I thought our defense was very good," Godwin
said. "I thought the double plays were huge. I thought the play
that really was a huge play in the game was the 5-4-2 double
play. That's a high-level play. [Second baseman Ryan Wood, right] read
that, saw the play, had the guy dead at the plate."
The Pirates also turned double plays in the third
and eighth to squelch rallies.
Devin Harris (2 for 3, 2 R) kept the power show
going in the second for ECU with his 13th homer to push the lead
to 3-0. Dustin Harrington belted a three-run dinger in a
four-run third to give the Pirates a 7-0 lead.
After Joe Charron (3 for 5, 4 RBI) belted a
two-run homer in the fourth for the Bearcats, ECU answered with
four more in the bottom of the frame for an 11-2 lead.
Bailey Daniels (2-2) was key out of the pen for
the Pirates. In the fifth, BU hit starter Chris Heston hard the
third time through the lineup. After three scored in the inning,
Daniels surrendered an RBI single to Joe Charron to make it 11-6
with runners on the corners and no outs. Daniels got two called
strikeouts and a fielder's choice to end the threat.
Daniels' plan was "just to minimize damage and
try to get us back in the dugout without too much damage."
(left) went four innings with three hits, one
run, no walks and three strikeouts. He surrendered a solo homer
to Charron in the seventh to complete the scoring.
"I'm really happy, obviously, with the way our
guys competed in the last two-thirds of the game," BU head coach
Tim Sinicki said. "I think we came out on the big stage and were
maybe overwhelmed a little bit."
"Our team this year has been a real battle-back
team," Charron said. "The [America East] championship game and
every single game in our conference tournament we had to come
from behind.
"Everybody in our lineup is a good hitter,"
Charron added. "I had a great day today, but everybody in front
of me and behind me did their job, too. We just came up a bit
short today."
Wood had two hits and two runs for the Pirates.
Corey Taylor finished with three hits and two RBI for the
(photos by Rob Goldberg, courtesy
of ECU Media Relations Office)


text:
No. 10 Luther too much for BVU in season finale
The regular season came to an end last Saturday for the Buena Vista as the Beavers came up on the short end of a pair of games at home to No. 10 Luther by scores of 8-0 and 4-3.
The Norse held a 1-0 lead in the opener heading to the fourth inning when they were able to take advantage of some sloppy BVU defense and break the game open with five runs. They then added two more runs in the fifth.
The Beavers committed six errors in the game.
Offensively, BVU was held to only two hits — a double by Sam Engleman and a single by Stephanie Hayden.


text:
"Found out 10 days ago I had a miscarriage and 8 days ago had a d&c. Still bleeding and cramping. Appreciate reading others comments. This experience is so heartbreaking. May go to a support group that meets in a couple weeks. Very depres..."
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text:
Tottenham hero Ledley King has revealed QPR boss Harry Redknapp wanted him to come out of retirement last season.
King called time on his 13-year professional career last summer after finally admitting defeat in his battle against a chronic knee injury.
"I believe (Redknapp) tried to (get me to come out of retirement), but he didn't manage to get hold of me," King said at the launch of Vodafone 4G in Trafalgar Square.
"I wouldn't have done it though. I played at Tottenham my whole life and it would have been a bit silly to try and come back knowing I can't do what I want, play the way I like to play. I have barely kicked a ball since I retired.
"And I also have got such a great affiliation with Tottenham, so I would like to leave it there."
For the big stories and the banter follow us on Twitter: @tribalfootball


text:
People at Savannah: Stefan Marsiske Profile
Follows the Profile of Stefan Marsiske <stef>.
Open Items submitted by Stefan MarsiskeNone found
Open Items assigned to Stefan MarsiskeNone found
General Information
|Real Name:
|Stefan Marsiske
|Login Name:
|Email Address:
|Site Member Since:
|Wed 07 Oct 2009 08:25:52 PM UTC
|This user did not enable Resume & Skills.
Project/Group Information
- Free Software Foundation Europe
Member since Wed 07 Oct 2009 08:33:58 PM UTC
You Could Send a Message if you were logged in.


text:
SAN JOSE — Officials on Monday released the identity of four men who recently died of hypothermia-related causes, with three perishing during the bitter cold snap that arrived in the Bay Area last week.
According to the Santa Clara County Sheriff's Office, Daniel Brillhart, 52, was found on Thanksgiving under a bridge at Delmas and Auzerias avenues close to Highway 87 and Interstate 280 near downtown San Jose. Three more men succumbed to the cold on Dec. 4 and 5: Enrique Rubio, 56, in the 600 block of Lincoln Avenue in San Jose; Daniel Moore, 53, at Curtner Avenue and Canoas Gardens near Highway 87 and Almaden Expressway in San Jose; and Andrew Greenleaf, 48, who was found in a garage in the 20000 block of Orchard Road in Saratoga.
Sheriff's officials announced on Friday that the four men were homeless, although Greenleaf has a listed home address where he was found, along with other relatives.
In the wake of the four deaths, 375 additional beds were set up at three emergency cold-weather shelters in Santa Clara County, and they were kept open an extra two hours each morning.
Also, outreach workers from EHC LifeBuilders, other nonprofits, as well as Valley Homeless Healthcare Program staffers fanned out to homeless encampments throughout the county over the weekend. They handed out warm-weather clothing and blankets, and encouraged people to go to the shelters.
In all, they were able to reach about 500 people in encampments and on the streets, said Jenny Niklaus, CEO of EHC LifeBuilders.
Even though temperatures were subfreezing again over the weekend, officials said there were no other deaths due to exposure.
"It's a major win that we didn't lose any more folks to hypothermia," Niklaus said.
Among the people persuaded to come indoors were a man, woman and child believed to be 2 or 3 years old who were in a tent beneath an overpass living near Highway 87 and West San Fernando Street. They came to the cold-weather shelter at the former Sunnyvale National Guard Armory on Saturday night and now are expected to be placed at a family shelter.
As the cold snap is finally expected to ease, the cold-weather shelters will go back to their usual capacity of 275 beds on Tuesday night, Niklaus said.
Elsewhere in the Bay Area, a homeless man was found dead Sunday morning in Hayward, becoming the seventh person in the region to succumb to frigid temperatures over the past two weeks.
The Hayward case came on the heels of the death of another homeless man in the East Bay and an elderly man in his Peninsula trailer over the weekend. Police said cold weather may have been to blame in both cases, although their exact cause of death remains to be seen.
Staff writer Natalie Alund contributed to this report. Contact Eric Kurhi at 408-920-5852. Follow him at Twitter.com/erickurhi.


text:
Hi all, Does the HTML5 specification loosen the rules for the valid values in the name attribute on form elements? The 4.01 specification said[1]: ID and NAME tokens must begin with a letter ([A-Za-z]) and may be followed > by any number of letters, digits ([0-9]), hyphens ("-"), underscores ("_"), > colons (":"), and periods ("."). I can't find similar language in the current HTML5 specification. The attribute index[2] says the value must be "Text*" with the * indicating that "...the actual rules are more complicated than indicated in the table...". In that table, "name" itself is not a link but on the row "input" is a link to the forms page's name definition[3] which describes what the name attribute means (and says it can't be blank if given), but doesn't provide any other rules. Is that really the only rule? To the extent I can ("name" is a very generic and common word), I've also had a look through section 2.4 (Common Microsyntaxes), section 3 (Semantics, structure, ...), section 8 (The HTML Syntax), and others. Is this defined somewhere I missed? [1] http://www.w3.org/TR/html401/types.html#type-name [2] http://www.w3.org/TR/html5/index.html#attributes-0 [3] http://www.w3.org/TR/html5/forms.html#attr-fe-name Thanks in advance, -- T.J. Crowder Independent Software Consultant tj / crowder software / com www.crowdersoftware.comReceived on Sunday, 11 April 2010 09:48:47 UTC
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.3.1 : Tuesday, 6 January 2015 20:26:26 UTC


text:
Welcome to our new site. Please explore our menu and like/follow our social media pages to keep up to date with our featured menu items and menu updates. Don't forget to BYOB on your next visit and invite some friends to enjoy our delicious food.
July 12, 2015 Uncategorized
ameritalia 0


text:
How can one support the thesis that John Keats is a pure poet who does not memorize or preach, but enjoys life as it comes his way and lets others enjoy it, as well? Please give references from his...
How can one support the thesis that John Keats is a pure poet who does not memorize or preach, but enjoys life as it comes his way and lets others enjoy it, as well? Please give references from his poems Hyperion, The Eve of St. Agnes, Ode to a Nightingale, When I Have fear, On the Sonnet, and Bright Star.
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In his poetry, the Romantic John Keats strongly exhibits a preponderance of feeling and imagination as opposed to intellect and reason. Along with greatly emotive figures of speech, sensual images and a certain pictorial quality to his poetry, Keats opens to others the world and the timeless themes of Love, Death, Time, and Loneliness.
- "Ode to a Nightingale"
Certainly, this intensity of feeling, the transcendence to the sublime, and rich imagery that evokes emotion in the reader is present in "Ode to a Nightingale." In a paradoxical situation, the poet is happy to hear the lovely song of the night bird, but at the same time, his "heart aches" and hearing this song serves only to create melancholy in him. And, yet, Keats will become a wild bird in his imagination and share the birds' view of the world. Thus, he takes the reader on an imaginative journey "Tasting of Flora" and hearing "Provencal song and sunburnt mirth" along the way as the "Immortal Bird's" anthem "fades." This notion represents what is intrinsic to the Romantic spirit: the attempt to achieve the sublime.
- "Bright Star"
Interestingly the poet's wish to resolve opposites is reflected in the structure of this sonnet as Keats cleverly combines the English and Italian sonnet forms. This, like his "On the Sonnet" breaks with tradition, affording the reader with new sensations. For, the speaker of the poem discovers that his wish is not to be like the star after all; instead, he wishes "to transpose the potentiality of the star for eternal awareness into the realm of human life and feeling, and that of the most intense variety":
No—yet still steadfast, still unchangeable,
Pillowed upon my fair love's ripening breast,
To feel for ever its soft fall and swell,
Awake for ever in a sweet unrest,
Still, still to hear her tender-taken breath,
And so live ever—or else swoon to death.
The uniqueness of the form as well as the content of this poem certainly opens to the readers a world unknown.
- "When I Have Fears"
This poem addresses the existential condition as the poet worries about untimely death which kills the imagination and lessens one's importance,
When I behold, upon the night's starred face,Huge cloudy symbols of a high romance,And think that I may never live to traceTheir shadows with the magic hand of chance
"On the Sonnet"
This sonnet examines the demands that the structure of sonnets places upon the poem and its themes, protesting against the restrictive form, the "dull rhymes" of the sonnet. Thus, Keats begins with a sestet, rather than two open quatrains as in the Elizabethan sonnet, or an eight-line octave as in the Petrarchan sonnet, Keats opens with a sestet.
"The Eve of St. Agnes"
A spiritual quest in verse, this poem mirrors Edmund Spenser's legendary romances. In this adventurous work, Keats achieves the sublime with highly charged sensual imagery as the two lovers, Porphyro and Madeline, energized by the warm passion of their feelings, flee the animosity of their families.
And they are gone: aye, ages long agoThese lovers fled away into the storm.


text:
I'm sitting in English with nothing on my mind,
writing a poem that has no rhyme.
It is not very brilliant but so far it's good,
for it's journal time in my neck of the woods.
If it was my choice, i would not write but,
I try with all my might.
So my poem is now done, I have work to do.
And now I'm saying goodbye to you.
This post was submitted by Sara .


text:
Kissing Tips and TechniquesFirst Kisses :
ice cream
Get whatever flavor icecream you and your partner like the best.Then one of yall will put a spoon full of icecream in your mouth then start to kiss the other person.It will be amazing,and not to mention,tasty.
This tip was submitted by an anonymous visitor to our website.
Kissing Tips and Techniques > First Kisses
Printer Friendly Version
Pretty Version - for Gift Giving
Forward Tip To a Friend
|Follow @RomanceClass
Kissing Tips and Techniques : List of Topics
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text:
I don't normally write stuff like what follows, but I just read Mr. Jamieson's article that headlines this
Eight-seven comments so far, most of them ranting how terrible the cops were to have shot young Mr. Murphy, who appears, now that it's all over with, to have been a distressed young man who has caused not only his family but the officers who shot him great, life-long distress.
And what a lot of fuss it is, about someone who did something he knew was very likely going to be fatal. Believe me, drunkness does not make you stupid any more than does emotional distress, no matter how great.
Firing a weapon in a residential area will get police attention. There is only one good reason to do this, and that is to defend yourself and what is yours. Celebratory gunfire is not on that list.
Pointing a weapon at police is an excellent way to commit suicide-much less ignoring their orders to lay down the weapon, and then actually raising it and stepping towards them.
At close range, "blanks" can and do kill people. The military uses blank firing adaptors on the muzzles of weapons during training exercises in which "blanks" are used because blank ammunition is ammunition, not harmless. There are four universal rules of safe weapons handling, the first of which is: a weapon is loaded unless you have personally verified that there is no magazine in it and no round in the chamber, and it has not left your physical control since.
Finally, Mr. Murphy's weapon was an infantry rifle (the brain almost instinctively recognizes those fine old weapons) known for its reliability, accuracy and stopping power—with a bayonet mounted, which will scare the living daylights out of you. If in fact the police were using AR-15s, as a commentator on the article noted, they were using a round known to be underpowered for the job of stopping bad guys, so 7 rounds from 2 officers in probably about two seconds is hardly excessive force.
So why is there any question that this was a justified shooting?
Why is there this incredible desire to beat on the police, who unless they are utter sociopaths (which few are), quite unhappy about what they did?
Mr. Murphy consciously made a series of very bad chocies virtually guaranteed to get him killed, causing great grief to people who loved him and who didn't even know him. Why, then, the attacks on the police, rather than condolences to them and his family?


text:
Fire industry leaders are being called to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Ziton on January 9.
Held at Whittlebury Hall, the gathering will celebrate the anniversary of one of the best-known brands in the fire industry and look forward to some important new developments. The afternoon presentation and gala dinner will be attended by fire industry leaders, Ziton customers, installers and end-users and VIP guests from around the world.
Keynote speakers at the event will include Martin Harvey, Chairman of the FIA, Jeff Little, CEO of NSI and Jurgen Van Goethem, Product Management Leader, Fire, UTC Fire & Security EMEA.
Kevin Swann, country manager, UTC Fire & Security UK Ltd, said: "As part of this anniversary event we are delighted to be welcoming back some of the key people who were involved in setting up the company," s "This is a great opportunity to look at Ziton's achievements and to look forward to some key development coming up in 2014. Three major new Ziton technology innovations will be unveiled at the event."
Customers old and new are being invited to attend the January 9th event which begins at 3pm and is followed by dinner at 6pm.
For more information contact Mark Staples on 01908 281981 or email email@example.com – places are subject to availability.
For more, visit www.utcfssecurityproducts.co.uk


text:
Who is the real David Cameron and what does he stand for?
Here is one take.
And, of course, the ubiquitous Guido Fawkes has his own interpretation of what emerged from yesterday's debate.
As Michael Goldfarb puts it David Cameron went "tribal", saying he "charged after welfare cheats and claimed big business backs him".
And David Cameron also had his "off camera" moment – see here – apparently in his world £1.2 billion is only a small amount of money, which brings us back to here.
On the front page of the N London edition of Fur & Feather was it Toby? Seems to have evaded Murdoch and the media which follow the foreign Billionaire Press.
Abolishing ID cards is good enough for a start. Repeal of 13 yrs of repression. Tally Ho!


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Francis MacNutt, who has more than thirty years of experience in praying for people and seeing dramatic healings and conversions, tells a story about his father-in-law, Joe. On numerous occasions, Joe became critically ill and was on the verge of death. But Francis and his wife, Judith, would persist in praying for him, and each time Joe would recover. This pattern continued for nearly ten years before Joe finally succumbed to his sickness and died. Francis is convinced that Joe lived so much longer because of their persistent prayer for him. This, and many other experiences like it, is why Francis urges people never to give up praying for healing until the moment of death, when God finally brings the person to be with him forever.
Bob, who is in his sixties, has had heart trouble for years. A few years ago, friends from church offered to intercede for Bob and pray with him for healing. He agreed, and they placed their hands on his shoulders and prayed. It lasted only about five minutes, but the effect was amazing. Bob could feel the love flowing from his friends, and he felt better physically as well. It was such a positive experience that Bob asked his friends to pray with him on a regular basis. He believes that the prayers have helped him both physically and spiritually. The medical results were also positive. Bob's doctor reports that not only is his heart holding its own, it is even showing signs of improvement!
If you are praying for a particular intention, whether it is for a friend's healing, for an end to abortion, or even for a job for yourself, don't stop until you know that God has answered you. Don't give up, thinking that your prayers are unimportant or "wrong." Keep it up, and see how God acts. He may not give you exactly what you want, but watch and see: He will give you something very, very good.
Bargaining with God. In the Book of Genesis, there is a story about Abraham trying to bargain with God (Genesis 18:16-33). God came to visit Abraham in the form of angels and revealed his plan to destroy Sodom because of the wickedness of the people there. Abraham immediately thought of his kinsman, Lot, who lived there with his wife and daughters. Trying to turn the Lord's hand, Abraham asked: "Suppose there were fifty innocent people in the city; would you wipe out the place, rather than spare it for the sake of the fifty innocent people within it?" (18:24). God agreed to spare the city for the sake of the fifty. But Abraham wanted to do everything he could for Lot, so he bargained with God: What about forty people? Thirty? Finally, he settled on ten, and with that, the angels left him.
God did not answer Abraham's prayer in precisely the way Abraham asked, but he did spare Lot and his children. Genesis tells us, in fact, that God "was mindful of Abraham by sending Lot away from the upheaval by which God overthrew the cities where Lot had been living" (Genesis 19:29). This story tells us that we may not always get the answer we pray for but that God still hears our prayers and keeps us in his mind and heart as he unfolds his plan.
Don't be afraid to bargain with the Lord. Many a soldier in battle has told God: "Keep me alive, and I will never miss Mass again for the rest of my life." And they have kept their promise. Another fellow, a New York police officer who was on duty on September 11, 2001, told God: "Let me live through this catastrophe, Lord, and I will serve you." Today he is running the RCIA program in his parish, is the president of the men's club, and volunteers at the local food bank. Did these bargains really work? We will never know. But we do know one thing: They all believe that God answered their prayers, and it has profoundly affected their lives.
No Petition Is Too Small! Through intercessory prayer, we can touch people all over the world. We should feel free to ask God for anything, at any time, in any situation. Our prayers can penetrate geographical, cultural, and political barriers, bringing the healing, saving touch of the Lord into countless lives and situations. Through prayer, we can reach the men and women who are fighting in war as well as the children in the womb whose lives are at risk. We can help our children and care for our elderly parents. We can change the climate in a home and the relationship between alienated friends-all through intercessory prayer.
As we pray, let's take up the attitude of the "watchmen" described in the Book of Isaiah. In fact, let's paraphrase this passage and apply it to us: "Upon your walls the Lord has stationed watchmen. Never, by day or by night, should you be silent in your intercessions. No, keep reminding the Lord. Take no time to rest for yourself, and don't give God any rest either. Keep praying until the Lord answers all your prayers and makes his church the pride of the earth" (Isaiah 62:6-7).
No petition is too small for God, not even asking for a parking space on a crowded street or seeking relief from a little cold. Just be persistent. Ask your heavenly Father, and never stop asking.
(Joe Difato is the publisher of "The Word Among Us" devotional magazine. To contact him, go to his website at www.joedifato.com. Many thanks to The Word Among Us (http://www.wau.org/) for allowing us to use his articles from their October 2009 issue. Used with permission.)
Questions for Reflection/Discussion by Catholic Men
1. The article begins with two stories of men who experienced healing through the power of persistent prayer. Do you believe God can heal a person through prayer? Does the frequency and persistency with which you pray for and with people for healing match your faith in the power of prayer? If not, how can you change it?
2. Genesis 18:16-33 tells the story of Abraham trying to bargain with God on the fate of Sodom. The article also gives the examples of other men who did the same. Share a time when you tried to "bargain" with God. What were the results and what affect did it have on your life?
3. In the article, we hear these words: "Through intercessory prayer, we can touch people all over the world. We should feel free to ask God for anything, at any time, in any situation. Our prayers can penetrate geographical, cultural, and political barriers, bringing the healing, saving touch of the Lord into countless lives and situations. Through prayer, we can reach the men and women who are fighting in war as well as the children in the womb whose lives are at risk. We can help our children and care for our elderly parents. We can change the climate in a home and the relationship between alienated friends-all through intercessory prayer." What steps can you take to put into practice these moving words?
4. The article calls us to be "watchmen" and exhorts us to "Keep praying until the Lord answers all your prayers and makes his church the pride of the earth." During this grace-filled Advent Season, what are some ways you can answer this call to be a watchmen through "persistent" prayers?
5. If you are in a men's group, take some time at the end of your meeting to pray for one another for the grace to be watchmen who are never "silent in your intercessions."
(The discussion questions were created by Maurice Blumberg, a Trustee of the National Fellowship of Catholic Men (http://www.catholicmensresources.org/), and currently the Director of Partner Relations for The Word Among Us Partners, (http://www2.wau.org/partners/), a Ministry of The Word Among Us to the Military and Prisoners. Maurice can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.com.)


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Learning from mistakes
We knew that we would have student errors in running the money. Thus, Peter A. West, co-managing director of the fund, wrote a procedural draft document, spending more than 300 hours on this project, with more than 120 pages covering everything from training to execution. The document not only provides continuity of knowledge, but also establishes the culture of the fund.
It is the policy of FFF for team members who commit an error to write an error report. One report worth noting covers an error that occurred on Jan. 12, 2011, at 9 a.m.
That month, McNew took 10 members of the FFF team to Houston on a networking and informational trip. This trip left only seven students managing the position for more than a week in Dayton. There, it seemed most other students shirked their responsibilities, leaving one to cover for the entire fund.
To quote from his error report: "After trading for the third time, at 5 a.m. on Jan. 12, 2011, to cover for the other trading team, I became frustrated and sent out an email and a text message to remind them of their duties to the Flyer Forex Fund. Afterward, in a fit of rage, I threw my phone (which is also my alarm clock) and went to bed."
Unfortunately, the phone broke and the student missed the 9 a.m. trading slot, executing the trade 27 minutes late. While any manager would expect greater dedication from an employee than a student, this highlights the importance of making sure you have proper staffing and back-up.
Generation Y, being educated now, will have specific ramifications in the workforce, as has become evident in the running of FFF. Also known as Millennials, these kids are part of the "trophy generation," a term that reflects the trend in competitive sports, as well as many other aspects of life, where mere participation is frequently enough for a reward. It seems that many of the students that join FFF feel that this — the joining — is enough. No extra work is needed.
While the student with the error held the team together and worked through the problem, the remaining students simply didn't feel that they were accountable.
The purpose here is not simply to critique society's shaping of tomorrow's workforce. It is relevant to traders in the sense that there are no entitlements in trading. Indeed, many students believe that everything is owed them — that the long hours and the out-of-pocket costs borne by the professional mentors and advisory board are a right and not a privilege. They argue that an error of $27 is not much. But in this case it represents about 1% of money under management and it is extremely significant.


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the sun is shining and its a little bit cold my guess would be 1 degree celcius in this part of denmark, had -10 last night then going for a smoke break after i dinged 85
the sun is shining and its a little bit cold my guess would be 1 degree celcius in this part of denmark, had -10 last night then going for a smoke break after i dinged 85
Around -15C, was -2C yesterday and -25C a couple of days ago.
That and constant strong wind, it's freezing here.
"After dealing with about 10 000 patients over the last 15 years, I would say that over 200 different medical conditions respond favorably to cannabis."
- The late Dr. Tod Mikuriya, MD, interview in The Union: The business behind getting high
Former national administrator of the U.S. Government's marijuana research programs
Denmark is freezing, pisses me off.
Atleast I got the ability to smoke inside. Otherwise I would go mental :P
-12C in Glasgow yesterday, forecast is for -19C today, except it's actually 0C right now, so it's probably going to drop 19 Degrees overnight...
from -10C to 5C. Czech Republic, not bad so far
If 'pro' is the opposite of 'con' what is the opposite of 'progress'? Paul Harvey
Religion is just mind control. George Carling
Cake or Death? Eddie Izzard
50 F in Corvallis, Oregon. It's warm, wet, and a great reason to stay inside and do nothing but play WoW!
-7 in finland, pretty warm atm. it will get alot colder soon though.. ALOT
-26°C with a terribly icy wind, Norway.
22°C here in Spain.
28° Johannesburg, South Africa
Sitting in the office in shorts and a t-shirt.
45F/7C St Petersburg Florida, USA. Which is cold by local standards, my guildys that live up in Canada think its "cute"


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Duke Energy Corp. today said it plans to distribute 10 million free compact fluorescent light bulbs to eligible customers this year.
The Charlotte-based company said it distributed more than 10 million free CFLs to about 1 million residential customers last year, saving enough energy to power nearly 45,000 homes.
Duke declined to break down the cost of the bulbs.
CFLs use 75 percent less energy and last up to 10 times longer than standard light bulbs, the company said in a press release.
To request the free bulbs, go to duke-energy.com/freecflsnow or call (800) 943-7585 and choose option one.


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3 out of 4 public school teachers say that students regularly come to school hungry. 81% say it happens at least once a week.
"The problem of hunger leads to all these other problems. It has a snowball effect. These students fall behind and they never really catch up."
— Tony Notarides, elementary school teacher
Educators agree that kids need to start the day with a healthy breakfast in order to do well in school. But though nearly every school offers breakfast, 50% of teachers still say the problem has increased.
Some schools have figured out better ways to feed kids.
see kids paying better attention in class
see improved attendance
see fewer disciplinary problems
"This is the first year we've had a free breakfast program [in the classroom] for all students. Not only are we feeding their physical needs, we're feeding their emotional needs. The light turns on; they're able to function in the classroom."
— Margot Shaver, elementary school teacher


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|Editions | myCNN | Video | Audio | Headline News Brief | Feedback
'Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon' director, actress
Lee, Yeoh leap into love/action film
HOLLYWOOD, California (CNN) -- Ang Lee is a respected director, with the Oscar-winning "Sense and Sensibility" (1995), "The Ice Storm" (1997) and "Ride with the Devil" (1999) among his cinematic accomplishments. His latest offering promises to enhance that resume.
"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" is a story of love and betrayal centering on the theft of a sword in ancient China. The movie's message is honor and integrity -- its language is Mandarin with English subtitles -- but its action is pure, Hong Kong-style martial arts.
CNN sat down recently with the Taiwan-born Lee and one of the film's stars, the Malaysian-born Michelle Yeoh, to talk about martial arts, the yin and yang of filmmaking, and strong women.
CNN: The inclusion of martial arts in "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" sets this film apart from others you have directed. For those in the West who are not as familiar with the philosophy behind martial arts, what did it mean to have that focus in this film?
Ang Lee: It was a fulfillment of my boyhood dream. I grew up with martial-arts films -- the story telling and the exhilarating type of filmmaking that it brought to the public. It really connects with the Chinese opera of the past, and the philosophy of the inner-strength type of martial art -- the wu tang style such as tai chi -- whose philosophy is much like how we carry our own lives in the East.
... What is really satisfying about making martial-arts films is the fun of it -- the crazy set-up, the ultimate exhibition of the ultimate skill of making movies in the most exciting way. Of course, you don't have to make martial-arts films to be a good filmmaker, but it really did inspire me -- not only in the making of action sequences, but as a filmmaker as a whole. � I really got a kick out of it, and it was quite educational for me.
Michelle Yeoh: There is martial arts in the film, and yet, there is that dramatic side that balances it. It's like seeing the yin and the yang work in perfect harmony.
When I first went into martial arts, I saw the more aggressive side of it, the visual side of it, the very powerful side of it. But that is the exact opposite of the philosophy. It's not about going into war; it's about deflecting it. It's about learning to pacify situations. It's about knowing yourself, looking into yourself. And in this movie, that's what Ang has done so beautifully.
CNN: There's obviously an enormous amount of training that went into those scenes. How did you prepare?
Lee: There was a martial-arts camp set up for about two months, and the actors were taking the basic training.
Yeoh: Three hours in the morning, maybe another two hours in the evening; just working out all the movements. Unfortunately, I had an accident while I was doing the last night of the first action sequence. I tore the (anterior cruciate ligament) in my knee, and there was no option other than surgery. If I didn't have surgery, I wouldn't have been able to run or jump for the next few months. So I had surgery � three-and-a-half weeks later I was back on the set.
They literally had to reschedule everything around me and my injury, and push the final action sequence until the last 10 days of the shoot. It was hard; it was really a torment. But you know, I wasn't willing to give up this role, because I had waited a year and a half to work with Ang Lee.
When he (characterized the film as) "Sense and Sensibility" with martial arts, how could I turn that down? Ang was adamant that no way (would I) be replaced. He was waiting for me. � When I got back to the set the cast and crew were wonderful. � But you know, what you see on-screen -- that's the only chance you get to do it right. And both of us were unwilling to compromise, so it took a much longer time and gritting teeth, but we got through it.
CNN: There is an extraordinary sequence with Chow Yun Fat and Zhang Zi Yi fighting on the tops of bamboo trees. Can you explain how you were technically able to do that?
Lee: Those are done by big cranes -- construction cranes 100 feet tall. We had to find a place that had roads to fit those big construction cranes, � and then we hang the actors up and mimic the movement of the bamboo. � We had scores of people underneath the actors, pulling the cables and mimicking the bamboo movements. � It took a lot of tryouts!
CNN: It's unusual in this genre to have women be the focus of a martial-arts film. What did women bring to this movie?
Lee: A new angle. I love strong women, both in life and in drama, and I think for this type of genre, it's a new angle. Also, from where I live -- in a repressed, male-dominant society -- it provides a very refreshing angle to look at the (film) genre and society. It also brings new layers of depth into the story. � I think at heart, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" is really a romantic story -- a romantic drama with martial arts as its film language. For a woman to use that kind of genre on film is just really charming.
Yeoh: If you watch a lot of his films, his women are always very strong. And I think it's marvelous to have a man, a director, who believes in women that way -- who sees women that way. When we look at every corner, at every office, anywhere we turn we see these characters who have the inner strength, who are gracious, who are noble. But why not on the silver screen?
CNN: What did you learn from making this film?
Lee: As filmmakers, we let our thoughts get in our way so much. It's usually about me, me, me... let me tell the audience what I had in mind, rather than provoke thoughts and emotions from the audience.
It's about the audience. I think I learned that part the most.
Film industry begins talking Oscars
Time.com: Interview with Crouching Tiger director Ang Lee
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text: > Being an outsider, I'm still trying to find out WTF happened> on friday evening when NUMA was discussed. I can't find any> video, audio, or even technical notes. This sucks; I'm writing> support for NUMA hardware (it's not cache coherent) right now> and I don't have any idea where things will be going.Something likeView 1: (The SGI view) NUMA should be implemented as a single kernel on a numa system. Andreahas done some work on this (see his kernel.org patches), as have SGI.View 2: (The McVoy view) NUMA is best viewed as another misguided attempt to do DSM and weshould run a kernel on each DSM node and do page cache borrows between nodes.Alan-To unsubscribe from this list: send the line "unsubscribe linux-kernel" inthe body of a message to email@example.com majordomo info at http://vger.kernel.org/majordomo-info.htmlPlease read the FAQ at http://www.tux.org/lkml/