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Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting the Unexpected
Authors : Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
December 27, 2012
Foreword from Singapore Management University
The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU), which prides itself to be a University for the world of business and management, and a truly iconic corporate institution –– MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.
The inflation expectations measured are perceptions of future average rise in prices over a medium term of one year or a long term of five years. Policy-makers in central banks around the world, while formulating their monetary policies, keep a keen eye on the inflation expectations, among other things. Even then, their projections are mostly based on the expected rise in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services at current or prevailing prices, popularly termed as 'Consumer Price Index Inflation' or 'CP I Inflation.' This usually proxies for the future rise in overall prices to enable policymakers to decide on their monetary policy to keep prices stable while at the same time encouraging growth and generating employment.
One of the biggest challenges for policymakers is to ascertain the inflation expectations of households before and after any policy statement is made. While the experts have access to vast levels of macroeconomic data to formulate informed opinions about inflation expectations, for the common man who has to make purchasing decisions as unprecedented levels of global economic uncertainty unfolds, the reality can be quite different. Our research at SMU-SKBI brings out the nature and influences of such individuals' inflation expectations from cross sections of Singaporean households.
The early results are indeed fascinating in terms of both response and predictability which lay testament to how informed the Singaporean households are and how grounded they are in forming their inflation expectations. It also brings out the effectiveness of our methodology that is founded upon rigorous multi-disciplinary research expertise by SKBI researchers. Lastly, this would not have been possible without the generous support from MasterCard, and the constant efforts of MasterCard and SMU teams in disseminating the research results to the public-at-large through quarterly updates to the media.
I would like to take this opportunity to extend my sincere thanks and offer a toast to President Vicky Bindra and his team from MasterCard for their strong support towards this unique partnership that brings about the true spirit of a community in this cycle of knowledge creation.
Professor Arnoud De Meyer
Singapore Management University
Foreword from MasterCard
It has been a year since MasterCard and the Singapore Management University (SMU) jointly launched the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations. The objective of establishing the Index was to provide valuable insight into the behaviour and sentiments of household decision makers in Singapore. This collaboration affirms MasterCard's commitment to researching, understanding and forecasting consumer behaviour that will in turn contribute to more effective and successful monetary policy management in Singapore, with far-reaching benefits to the business and household sectors in the years to come.
This past year, MasterCard has developed a strong and collaborative partnership with the team at SMU as we worked closely to release this important piece of research on a quarterly basis. Owing to the relevance of this analysis to both businesses and individuals alike, we have been approached and referenced by multiple media, research analysts and other industry experts –– a sure sign of the growing influence of this Index.
Looking back, 2012 presented a number of economic challenges and milestones, including the Euro-zone crisis, rising inflationary conditions in China and persistent unemployment in western markets. All this and more led to a year characterised by global economic uncertainty. Amidst such changes in the economic environment, the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations remained an accurate barometer forecasting inflation expectation amongst consumers in Singapore. Notably, the Index provided a snapshot of how Singapore consumers are affected by both the domestic economy as well as changing global economic conditions. The Index showed us that Singaporean consumers were at times troubled by uncertainty in the global economic environment, however, for the most part they remained cautiously optimistic in light of the resilience of Singapore's economy.
Over the years, MasterCard has dedicated significant resources to developing a deeper understanding of the business and economic dynamics that shape the region, as well as the fast-evolving Asian consumer market, through surveys and independent research studies. In the process, we have built a robust knowledge and insights platform, adding value through the continuation of cutting edge research but also through the sharing of knowledge in new areas.
As we enter 2013, we are excited to continue our fruitful relationship with Singapore Management University.
Vicky Bindra
Asia/Pacific, Middle East & Africa
MasterCard Worldwide
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting the Unexpected
Aurobindo Ghosh and Jun Yu
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Singapore Management University
27 December 2012
The slowdown in the post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has meant soaring unemployment in the US and Euro-zone periphery economies compared to historical standards. This in turn has sent warning signals to policymakers around the world. Having learnt hard lessons from prolonged periods of slump after the Great Depression, some central banks in the developed world adopted expansionary monetary policy and implemented several rounds of stimulus spending termed as Quantitative Easing to spur productive activities in a period of declining demand. While it had mixed successes in generating demand and lowering unemployment in the US and Eurozone, small open economies like Singapore became susceptible to inflationary pressures from different fronts.
First, with sound monetary and fiscal policy and a strong balance sheet, Singapore has become an investment for discerning investors and employment destination for talented and qualified professionals. Second, being a city-state with only urban population and limited space both real estate sector and private transportation cost have elevated. Finally, imported inflation and "hot money" have flown to Singapore with an ensuing upward pressure on prices. Consequently, policymakers have an unenviable task of balancing the dual mandate to maintain low unemployment and price stability.
Since September 2011, we have interviewed 400 randomly selected individuals quarterly across the cross section of the Singapore society to ascertain their expectations of inflation in both medium and long term. This is intended to help policymakers (a) to anchor inflation expectations in line with their adopted monetary policy through exchange rates, (b) to fathom the effectiveness of communications and (c) to influence informed decision making by Singaporean households. We found that using an innovative internet based survey we can identify the inflation expectations of the individuals in the short duration. It turns out the one-year-ahead predicted quarterly Headline Inflation rate of 4.68% is closer to the realised CPI-All Items inflation rate of 4.2% than even the Survey of Professional Fore-casters who predicted 2.8%. Currently, the one-year- ahead Headline Inflation rate of 4.37% (CPI All Items) is slightly lower than the composite weighted SKBI- MasterCard Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx1) of 4.4% collected in December 2012.
Inflation and the World
Post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the world economy has been going through a prolonged economic slump reminiscent of the phase of slow or no growth after the Great Depression in the 1930s. Western economies had to wait for the Second World War reconstruction in 1940s to get back on the fast track to recovery. The lessons learned from the past crises in Asia and the West prompted policymakers, particularly in the US Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, to be proactive. They have responded to an impending crisis in the best way they knew through prolonged periods of expansionary monetary policies. However, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke (at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts, July 10, 2007) had reemphasised that most central banks work under the dual mandate of price stability and employment generation. So while expansionary monetary policy might be good for growth and lowering unemployment, the adverse impact on inflation is often a cause of concern.
With an ongoing slowdown in the Western economies or the so called G3 (US, Eurozone and Japan) and consequently, plummeting world demand, inflation is currently not rampant throughout the world but only some pockets, particularly in some sectors in the emerging world including China and India. In fact, inflation was at a very ebb in the US, Europe, China and India as recently as August 2012, recording the lowest levels in the post GFC period. Naturally, the policymakers had to shift their attention to other more serious part of their mandate vis-à-vis employment generation. In the same period, the embattled Euro-zone periphery economies like Spain and Greece were looking down with nearly one out of every four of their employable population out of jobs and a staggering 50% youth unemployment. In the US, the country was facing unprecedented 8% unemployment nearly into their fourth year with a historic average of around 5.8% since 1948. The US unemployment number turned out to be pretty persistent despite near zero interest rate along with strong communication from the US Federal Reserve Boards' Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) about their stance of holding the rates low in the foreseeable future until around middle of 2015.
With traditional monetary policy doing little to assuage the persistent unemployment rate, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke decided for the most recent round of stimulus package termed as QE3 or quantitative easing to buy back Mortgage Backed Securities in the order of US$40 billion per month. This would shore up the banks' balance sheets to enable them to lend more aggressively until unemployment reduces significantly below current rates. In the same note the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi had previously announced the so called OMT (Outright Monetary Transactions) to enable the ECB to buy back unlimited quantities of troubled Eurozone Government bonds in the secondary market. This would reduce the cost of borrowing money for these governments which in turn is aimed at spurring growth to facilitate Eurozone's struggling economies to get out of the current economic quagmire. In the world's third largest economy, Bank of Japan facing an imminent slowdown in production and growth also contemplated further stimulus plans through aggressive easing of their monetary policy. Inflation was of little less concern than a possible cycle of deflation that plagued Japan, and the spectre of a lost decade of no growth might continue was definitely in the mind of the policymakers.
The effectiveness of such expansionary policies together with other macro-prudential measures is often mixed. On the positive side we have observed that current unemployment rate in the US has unexpectedly climbed down to around 7.7% in November 2012 while countries like Spain now face a lower interest rate in borrowing for the financial market. While on
the other hand, US was looking at a possible "fiscal cliff" (or a "fiscal slope"with 11th hour legislation) of US$600 billion from government coffers in spending cuts and expiry of tax reductions which can drive the US economy from a fledging growth to recession. This is compounded by Eurozone economies already tottering near the brink of double or triple-dip recession with no end in sight to persistently high unemployment rates.
Such expansionary policies popularly termed as "printing money" meant for encouraging growth and hence reducing unemployment could have an adverse consequence on inflation. The inflation that such availability of the freshly minted so called "hot money" generates could have an unintended consequence across the globe, in particular, in small open economies like Singapore. Loose monetary policy would tend to reduce the value of that currency and make its exports more competitive to the outside world. At the same time such policies will also make the foreign goods more expensive hence spur the demand for domestically produced and sourced goods, giving the right fillip to the local economy. However, countries that are export-oriented and have to import a lot of their consumables have to face imported inflation in a world of "easy money" or excess liquidity. With capital mobility the world over and exceptionally low interest rates, policymakers have an arduous task to control inflation when the priority of unemployment has been addressed.
Impact of the Region
Inflation has been a thorny issue until very recently in several economies in the region including the regional block ASEAN. Inflation rates in Vietnam are hovering around a historical average of about 7%. However, it has gone up slightly from a recent low of 5% but definitely much lower than near 20% inflation just around a year back. The fluctuation has been quite high over the last couple of years of turmoil in the banking sector. Australia has been quite resilient in terms of inflation and has hovered around 2%, of their two year high of 3.6% but definitely higher than near 1% in July this year. Indonesia has a stable 4.6 % latest in October 2012, off from its two year high of about 7%. China was at their historic low at 1.7% in October off from near 6.5% about 2 years back. Further with a Flash PMI in China going over 50 in a recent survey by HSBC, they seem to show a positive outlook. US Inflation has also been a low of about 1.7% before a slight spike after the announcement of latest stimulus. The CPI-All Items Inflation Singapore has dropped to 3.6% in November 2012 from around 4% a month before.
Inflation in Singapore
Singapore is unique in several different ways. In an increasingly globalised world, Singaporean policymakers also face an uphill task on one hand to ensure full employment and on the other hand to provide price stability. Singapore headline inflation could be attributed to both increase in real estate and private transportation, and structurally due to increase in rentals and wages affecting the cost of doing business. Such costs more often than not get passed through to the consumers. Since the inception of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) launched in January 2012, there have been several quarterly updates that were released to the media and public that gave a unique insight to the psyche of the Singaporean household. It also helped the researchers to fine tune the questions to identify the source of uncertainties and expectations among the responding public.
The main challenge in a small open economy like Singapore with sound policy and economic base is imported inflation. Furthermore, a tight monetary policy to accommodate for the imported inflation coupled with worsening investment climate elsewhere has made Singapore a coveted investment destination with an appreciating currency. The policymakers have an unenviable job to maintain price stability given that they have already addressed unemployment issues remarkably well through a downturn in the global economy. In the short run, besides imported inflation increasing wages and rental costs and consequent increase cost of doing business will probably maintain an upward pressure on inflation. On a brighter side, this might ease somewhat with an improving consumer confidence and sentiment in the emerging markets, in particular China in 2013, and recovering conditions though nascent in developed markets like the US.
Investors are becoming savvier by the day with increasing access to information, financial services and advice. They are also wary of the unlimited horizon easy monetary policy in the Western economies including comments and action by Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, to do whatever it takes to improve business conditions and growth. In fact, more recently Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, among others, termed it "QE Infinity" because of the unlimited horizon of the Fed's action (for excerpts of Paul Krugman delivering his SKBI Public Lecture visit http://skbi.smu.edu.sg/events/ 2012/11/07/skbi-public-lecture-nobel-laureate- paulkrugman). However, there could be two direct unintended consequences of the low interest rate regime into foreseeable future for open Asian economies like Singapore.
First, there could be flight to quality investment in Asia including Singapore. We would like to call this attracting "smart money" and not just "hot money" into the region. This will probably cause run up in real estate prices in the short run when housing supply cannot go up. Second, a more subtle but more damaging consequence is the decrease in purchasing power or to be precise, the real interest rate. The genesis of such a problem lies with the possibility of unhinged long term inflation expectations. A low nominal interest rate together with a moderate to high actual inflation rate might cause a decrease in purchasing power, and affect retirees or other investors particularly ones depending only on fixed income securities like long term bonds.
Cost of Living
As a city state, Singapore is at a privileged position both geographically and historically. In fact, a recent forward looking if not a perfectly rigorous academic survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit (part of The Economist team) puts Singapore at no. 6 globally on its where-to-be-born in 2013 index. It highlights a comment made by world's best known investor Warren Buffet's claiming that he was born in the right country (US) and at the right time (1930s) when asked about why good things happened to him (The lottery of life: Where to be born in 2013, The Economist, Nov 21,
2012). Incidentally, Switzerland is ranked first while US and Germany are tied at 16th position in the same index (after being first and third respectively in the inaugural Where-to-be-born survey in The World in 1988) that takes into account not just wealth but life expectancy, civil society, safety and security as well. The liveability coupled with investment and work destination of talented professionals possibly did come at a slight cost… the cost of living increase. It probably is likely to be in the eye of a perfect storm with a floundering global growth, unemployment spikes in the US and the Eurozone, and consequent regulations in the banking and financial sector. This might have led to a significant exodus from the Eurozone and the US. Furthermore, a growing and outward looking educated middle class in India and China and an attractive business and living environment in Singapore.
Singapore Inflation Expectations
MasterCard-SKBI survey of Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) started in September 2011 where approximately 400 participants were interviewed online with questions on their demographic details, household activities and perceptions on current and future economic and investment environments. The first two quarterly waves of the SInDEx Survey was analysed and presented at the official launch of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on January 10, 2012. The quarterly surveys reflected the adaptive expectations of various individuals in Singapore vis-à'vis their role as informed decision makers of the household. In particular, the initial surveys highlighted the nature of the characteristics that seem to influence the composite inflation expectations of individuals including economic awareness, long term horizon and exposure to media (cf. Singapore Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Creation of Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations by A. Ghosh and J. Yu, 2011).
We proposed two new index measures of inflation expectations, namely, the one-year-ahead SInDEx1 and the five-year-ahead SInDEx5. SInDEx1 is an equally weighted average of Headline (CPI-All Items) Inflation, Core Inflation (without Food and Energy related expenses) and finally, the Singapore Core (without the Accommodation and private transportation related costs). While the preliminary results were encouraging, the subsequent waves of the survey provided nothing short of a revelation. In particular, the Headline (closely related to the CPI-All Items, Figure 1 blue solid line with diamonds) Inflation and the composite one-year-ahead Sin- gapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx1, Figure 1 purple dotted line with crosses) seem to closely track the movements of the prevailing 2012 Inflation forecast (Figure 1 Orange broken line) better than the earlier consensus forecast of the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters (Figure 1, red line with rectangles). In fact, the first release of one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations of September 2011 of 4.68 is almost oracle- like with an ultimate realisation of 4.7% year on year. However, upon closer scrutiny, the just released third quarter value of CPI-All Items inflation is at 4.2% which is indeed fairly close to the projected inflation expectations of 4.68%. In the same period, the consensus median forecast for 2012 by the MAS Survey Professional Forecasters in September 2011 was at 2.8% nearly 50% lower than the realised outcome.
To the best of our knowledge, the MasterCard-SKBI SInDEx survey is the first of its kind in the region. Hence, unfortunately we do not have a good comparison benchmark. In order to compare, we cite the example of the Consumer Confidence Inflation Rate Expectations 12 Month Hence surveys conducted by The Conference Board in the US. The survey reported that the 12-month ahead rate dipped from a high of 6% in end August to 5.6% in end November 2012. These inflation expectations are consistently too high compared to the actual CPI inflation rate of 2.16% in October 2012 or for that matter, the actual CPI inflation of 1.7% recorded in August 2012. The Survey of Professional Forecasters published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculated a consensus CPI Inflation forecast of 2.2% in the last quarter of 2012 which is substantially less than the 5.6% projected by current The Conference Board survey. It is a conventional wisdom that inflation expectations based on surveys reflect sentiment in the market and possibly overestimate the actual inflation rates unlike the inflation expectations backed out from the yield of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). (Source: 2012 Fourth Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Board of Philadelphia, Aug 10, 2012, http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional- forecasters/2012/survq412.cfm and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Inflation Rate Expectations 12 Month Hence, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg. com/quote/CONCINFL:IND).
One-year-ahead SInDEx1 inflation expectations indices suggest that while it is quite responsive to communications by the policymakers, we find that the inflation expectations did not react excessively to short term fluctuations in the external market including food and oil price supply shocks due to turmoil in the Middle East or short term food inflation. It did, however, react with a slight dip in response to a tightening of the monetary policy through a steeper slope of the band of trade weighted exchange rate announced by MAS. This implies that at least in the medium term the infla- tion expectations measured by the composite inflation index (SInDEx1, Figure 1: Purple dotted line with crosses) seem to be fairly well "anchored" around the 4.5% mark, the upper end of the projected band communicated by MAS. It did, however, increase slightly with supply shortages of Certificates of Entitlements (COE) affecting private car prices and increase in demand for private accommodation. Consistent with such expectations in the current December 2012 issue of recent developments of the economy, MAS economists expect that for the year 2012 the inflation rate will come out to a little higher than 4.5%. In the latest wave of the survey in December 2012, the one-year- ahead inflation expectations of the headline (or CPI-In- flation) rate is at 4.37% while the composite one-year-ahead inflation expectations index fell to 4.4%, down from the previous quarter's high of 4.57%.
While the one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations seem to be more or less anchored, the five- year-ahead one is still suffering from excessive uncertainty emanating from the bleak global macro- economic outlook where the risks of a global economic slowdown are described as "alarmingly high"(World Economic Outlook, IMF Publications, October 2012). Although the five-year-ahead headline inflation rate elevated from 5.37 to 5.56% (Figure 2, in solid blue and blue diamonds) from the second to the third quarter of 2012, the weighted composite five-year-ahead Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx5, Figure 2, in dotted purple with crosses) only inched up from 5.08% to 5.24% indicating there is some level of stabilisation in the expectations even under severe global economic uncertainty. This is furthered bolstered by a substantial easing of the five-year-ahead headline inflation expectations of 5.21%, and a lowering of the composite five-year-ahead inflation expectations (SIn- DEx5) of 4.97% in the latest wave of the SInDEx Survey in December 2012.
However, the level five-year-ahead inflation expectations might still be an object of concern for policy-makers and needs some level of communication including a strong stance at putting controlling inflation in the forefront of the policy framework so as to anchor the long term inflation expectations along with the medium term one. In the absence of a benchmark we focus on the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters projection for 2013, and observe that the five-year-ahead inflation expectations are indeed dominating the 2013 economic forecasts even though SPF inflation projects have an upward trajectory (Figure 2, red solid line with small boxes). Such future expectations of inflation in a period of record low fixed interest inevitably moves to the negative real rate of return on investment in such assets or in other words a steady erosion of purchasing power.
The one-year-ahead Singapore core inflation rate (Figure 1, green solid line with triangles) is, without accommodation and private transportation in the SInDEx survey 4.67% in September 2011. This is significantly higher than 2.4%, the actual figure published by MAS. While there is no obvious reason for such an overestimation, we can conjecture some contributing factors. First, it is possible that respondents might be biased by the price changes of frequently purchased items that they have made in the recent past and ignoring less frequent purchases like the big ticket items (sometimes termed as the "frequency bias"). This would mean that individuals might expect higher inflation rate even though general price levels (excluding accommodation and private transportation) have not increased as much but food items, which form a small portion of their budget, has increased substantially. Second, media might have had a role to play in highlighting price increases in real estate and private transportation, which in turn might have had a knock on effect on inflation perception. Finally, there might have been some expectations of imported inflation that in reality was dampened by an appreciating Singapore dollar. Similar effects might have also transpired in the five-year- ahead Singapore core inflation expectations (Figure 2, green line with triangles) that the survey indicates is at 5% annual rate. Having said that, a recalibration might be needed to compare the actual numbers but any systematic bias would potentially be attenuated for a composite index obtained through weighting different indices, for example, the SInDEx1 and SInDEx5.
There are three major challenges or pitfalls facing a central banker. First, one of the biggest challenges facing a policymaker is the possibility of "unhinged" inflation expectations that might be fuelled by mass hysteria or irrational exuberance. Second, the other policy challenge is the possibility of a deflationary cycle that engulfed a G3 country like Japan and meant a long period of recession or no growth as seen in the 1990s. Finally, the third one is a period of stagflation seen in the US in late '70s early '80s where the period is marked by both stagnation and inflation. Many of the western economies are suffering from prolonged period of high unemployment owing mainly to lack of demand or very low new job creation. This has put a downward pressure in inflation and the second scenario has become a real possibility. Hence policymakers have chosen the path of stimulating the economy at the expense of some level of inflation which might be beneficial to the growth of the economy.
Having gone through a significant period of restructuring themselves post the Asian Financial Crisis, the export driven Asian Economies outside Japan were less affected by rampant unemployment like the West but had a dip in the demand from the west and imported (or some pockets in domestic markets in India and China) inflation due to record low interest rates. Hence, many of the central banks could not adopt a very expansionary policy but a measured tightening to shore up consumer confidence and control inflation. This approach might also address the issue on stagflation in the absence of high inflation rates. The right balance in stimulus spending to reduce unemployment, monetary policy tightening and macro-prudential processes like changing reserve requirements by central bankers and the economic policy community might help the global economy to get back on track of growth.


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The Other Mozart
Please note, this event has expired.
Described by The New York Times as "strikingly beautiful", this one woman drama is set in and on a magnificent 18-foot dress, created to fill and spill over the entire stage.
Sylvia Milo's award-winning The Other Mozart is the true, untold story of Nannerl Mozart, the sister of Amadeus — a prodigy, keyboard virtuoso, and composer, who performed throughout Europe with her brother to equal acclaim, but her work and her story faded away, lost to history. With the opulent beauty of the dress and hair design, the sweet smell of perfume and the clouds of dusting powder rising from the stage, The Other Mozart transports theView more
Tickets start at $25
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Non-U students $10 (purchase at box office w/ school ID)
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Contact: 801-581-7100
1375 East President's Circle, Salt Lake City, UT 84112
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text: Extra {Sale} House of Rain by Greg F. Gifune April 26, 2014 Published by Darkfuse Format: eBook Buy on Amazon $0.99 Related Posts Related Posts Star Books {Review} Occult Assassin: Damnation Code {ARC Review} Jagger by Kristopher Rufty {Review} Doll Face by Tim Curran {Review} Milk-Blood by Mark Matthews (Audio Review) {Review} Porcelain: A Novelette by William Hage {Guest Review by Mario Guslandi} The Haunted Tropics: Caribbean Ghost Stories { AUTHOR INTERVIEW} The Behrg chats with Horror After Dark! Glenn Rolfe – Book Tour All Smoke Rises by Mark Matthews-Intro by Kealan Patrick Burke! Paul's Top 10 Reads of 2015


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A Vietnamese Nurse Sentenced for Infecting Children with Genital Warts
A nurse in Vietnam has been sentenced to jail for 10 years, for violating the medical regulations. In a case of negligence, the nurse infected 117 children with genital warts, a disease which first saw an outbreak in July 2017 with more than 80 boys, maximum aged below 2 years.
Due to this negligence, the nurse was found guilty by Hung Yen Province People's Court in Northern Vietnam, which barred her from doing her practice for 3 years after her release from jail.
The court also ordered the nurse to pay compensation of more than 2.2 billion Dong to the families, that amounts to a total of $94,850. This amount is to be distributed to 111 of the 117 families of victims. The remaining 6 families failed to prove whether the nurse was the only cause of their children's infection or not.
This amount will help the parents to find a doctor who can prescribe the most appropriate treatment for genital warts in children.
As per the findings of the court, the nurse ran an unlicensed medical service at her own home, where she used to examine the genitals of the children. For each treatment, the nurse charged up to VND 520,000. The reason why children acquired genital warts was because the nurse was using unsterilized equipment to treat the children.
The treatment was given for phimosis. Phimosis is a condition in which the tight foreskin of the penis cannot be pulled back over the head. For treating phimosis, the foreskin has to be widened. But since the equipment to widen the foreskin was unsterilized, children contracted human papillomavirus (HPV), which subsequently led to the genital warts.
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Acne Scar Healing Serum by Slurp receives Praises from Everyone
Slurp, the Korean skincare brand, has created an acne scar healing serum, that is receiving love and praises from everyone who is using it. Going by the name Niacid, this is the oil based treatment, that has proven as a miracle to all the sufferers of acne scars.
Niacid is a Vitamin oil, colorless, that has been developed specifically to treat the acne and scar damaged skin. This serum has Vitamin B3 and Tranexamic Acid, which helps in raising the indentation of skin, that is caused by acne or any other kind of disorders. This way, it works in curing the inflammatory trauma of the skin.
Besides Vitamin and acid, there are many other medicinal ingredients in the serum, that helps provide nourishment to the skin. There are medicinal herbs, galactomyces, scutellaria root, and sodium hyaluronate. Together, they provide the needed nutrients, and strengthens and hydrates the moisture barrier of the skin. Apart from healing the acne scars, Niacid serum also minimizes the pores, and also exfoliate the skin to induce new cell growth and brighten the skin tone.
All these benefits made this serum so popular that the company had to limit purchase of the serum by an individual. Now, a person can only buy 2 bottles in one order. This serum is available for pre-ordering and would start getting available online from 26th April.
To use this serum, firstly, cleanse the skin, and then apply 3-5 drops by gently pressing with your fingers. This would evenly spread the oil on the skin. Since there is presence of acid in the serum, the user is advised to also apply SPF 50+ sunscreen to protect their skin from harmful rays of sun. For those who are sensitive to the usage of acid or any other chemical on the skin, they should try the natural remedies to remove acne scars. There are many brilliant acne scar healing treatments that can be done using natural ingredients available at home. Most of them work overnight, giving relief from those deadly marks on the skin.
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Balanced Rock
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The Skinny – Cabotcocyg Newsletter
College Graduates – Let us know about any who are graduating from college or graduate degrees from our church so we can recognize them during our Senior Graduation Service on May 5.
Upcoming Events
Wednesday Night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSvKVWs6zGc It is specifically about suicide but many of the things he says can be applied to other hard times teens are having. This is such a serious issue if there is anything I can do for your family please let me know.
Gary will take the Senior High through a quick overview of the book of 1 Corinthians.


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I know that it's getting harder and harder to spot a scam nowadays, when you consider how much garbage is being sold to the public. This is especially true when you look at the forex market. There are a lot of people who don't know the first thing about forex trading who are selling forex courses.
So when I stumbled upon the trading in the buff course, I was naturally hesitant, as everybody should be. It had a nice looking sales page, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the quality of the product will be any good.
But I always wanted to learn about price action, ever since I started trading. I did not like the fact that I was relying on indicators to tell me when to buy or sell. It felt like I really didn't have any control over my trading decisions.
So, I decided to purchase the course to see what it was all about. I am really glad that I did.
The course is explained in such a way that it doesn't go over the basics of trading. The creator, John Templeton assumes that the traders who purchased the course know about the basic fundamentals of trading, like what's a pip?, or what's a limit order?, etc…
Everything is explained in very simple terminology. You could tell that he really wants to make sure everybody will be able to follow along with the course.
I still had some questions, though. Since there are many different ways somebody can trade price action, so I emailed to him to clarify some points for me. Needless to say, I was really impressed. He emailed me within 2 hours with very thoughtful responses to my questions.
I am so used to people taking days to respond to an email, I was really stunned see that there are still people out there who value customer service.
Trading In The Buff was by far, one of the best investments I have made for my forex business this year.


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Dumpster Rental Companies Near 78709
|Company Name
|Clutter Busters Hauling
|(214) 533-6960
|WM Healthcare Solutions Inc
|(713) 512-6200
|West Texas Dumpsters
|(432) 614-5241
|(817) 808-8497
|Trash Monkey Dumpster Rentals
|(832) 592-1166
|Chavez Disposal
|(915) 851-1194
|Mother & Daughter Trash Healing
|(512) 484-9494
|Allied Waste Services of Austin
|(512) 247-5647
|Jireh Sanitation
|(903) 566-8040
|Jose Luis Salon
|(512) 474-1146
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Adults can lose about 10,000 scalp hairs each and every day. Later Michael and Kate got married and came into being the official spouse. First and foremost losing weight is neither a joke nor a simple task wherein you will no longer continue if you get upset or tired just because you have not seen a result yet. Additionally, he is divorced and has children of his own from previous relationships and the two previously dated for a brief time in 2015. The context, in which she was on a date with Alex to see a Poison concert, doesn't matter We're glad that Shannon is finding happiness and we of course wish her the best in this new relationship.
He was convicted of sexual exploitation of a minor, after attempting to solicit oral sex from an undercover police officer he believed to be a teen girl. Right before Shannon moved to Boise, Michael asked her to join him in a trip to the jeweler. He has garnered two Academy Award nominations to date. Gone was her sleek updo, as she covered her bed-head locks with a black beanie. There are many causes of shedding, from stress to chemotherapy, but 90 percent of hair-loss is genetic and can be treated with medication. The average age for women dealing with thinning hair is 45 to 55. He is not a fan of Donald Trump, and has harsh views towards the President and his supporters.
Besides, Shannon has plenty of storyline without him. When you become a father, it's hard not to feel like you are out of your league. June fell pregnant with her first child, Anna, at 14 years old and gave birth just days after her 15th birthday. The mother-daughter duo became regulars on the show, which gave viewers a behind-the-scenes look at the world of. Over the next week they acted casual at work, but made plans for a second date.
Leave all your phones and tablets tucked away and enjoy the beautiful venue. Apart from this, there is no information about his love affairs in the media. Now this one is important guys. The name of the film was Groundhog Day this came across in the year 1993 and from the very time he was rapidly progressive into his performance as such. He is openly gay and positive.
June pursued relationships with men who would later become convicted sex offenders; her daughters Jessica and Lauryn were fathered by Michael Anthony Ford b. Though she has not credited many films on her name, she has made her appearance in the movies The Missing Person 2009 , Hello I Must Be Going 2012 and The King of Iron Town 2004. Doak has a criminal record, having served jail time for , , and criminal damage to property. Stunning: The couple were dressed in their finery the night before as they walked the red carpet at the Oscars The actor was a stark contrast to the sartorially sharp figure he cut on the red carpet at the Dolby Theater. Michael Shannon is an American actor and musician.
His performances were counted within his roles Revolutionary Road that came in the year 2008. Michael Shannon's Body Measurements: What Is His Height? Her parents wed in 2018, when she 4 months old. After appearing in this movie in 2011, he got nominated in Austin Film Critics Association and he won this award that year for Best actor. With screen, you get your shot that day and then you gotta surrender and walk away and hope that it all cuts together well. His parents were living separately in Lexington and Chicago. Marc actually changed his mind and surprised her with an on-air appearance Will Shannon repeat that mistake? They tied the knot in the year 2002 and are together since then. Experts estimated that one serving of go-go juice contains as much caffeine as two cups of , a worrisome amount considering that the recommends children under the age of 12 not consume caffeine at all.
In his spare time, Michael Shannon loves to write songs and lists singing as part of his hobbies. In the fall of 2016, both Shannon and Michael were temporarily relocated for work. However, it took a long time to finally release their debut album it was released in 2010 and it was released under the title, Corporal. He had a mediocre first year in the league playing as a wide receiver and was convinced by Broncos head coach Dan Reeves to convert to a tight end which he agreed to. Anna has had a strained relationship with June, as June defended McDaniel in regards to accusations that he sexually assaulted her and reportedly began dating McDaniel in 2014. At present, there are no rumors concerning his life and career. Like her partner Michael Shannon, Kate is also not an active user of the social account.
A second season aired the following year. All in all, he has 34 wins and 87 nominations to his name to date. Regarding his earnings, there is no information about his salary in the tabloid sources. She has a daughter, Ella Grace, with Joshua Efird. The Boardwalk Empire star's hair was disheveled and unkempt, as he kept his head down while walking through the concourse.


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The poses of the Virgin and Child reflect the classicism and interest in structural form visible in Italian art, which Dürer studied while he was in Italy from 1494-5. The monkey adds an exotic element.
The landscape in the background, however, is based on Durer's watercolour Fisherman's house on a lake, taken from nature near Nuremberg on Dürer's return from Italy.
This engraving is one of the most popular of Dürer's works. Its appeal may in part be due to this mixture of Italianate forms with elements from northern landscape tradition.


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Prof. Gordon Huang(Keynote Speaker)
Academician of the Canadian Academy of Engineering(加拿大工程院院士)
University of Regina, Canada
Biography: Dr. Gordon Huang is a Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Energy and Environment, and Executive Director of the Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities at the University of Regina, Canada. He holds BSc from Peking University (China), MSc from Simon Fraser University (Canada) and PhD from McMaster University (Canada). Since the 1990s, Huang has led over 150 environment-related research projects, produced over 900 peer-refereed international journal papers (with an SCI-based H-index of 60 in Science Citation Index under Thomson Reuters' Web of Science), and supervised over 100 Master/PhD students. He is a Fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, and the President of the International Society for Environmental Information Sciences. He also acts (or acted) as editor-in-chief for 2 international journals and editorial board member for over 10 journals, and was conference chair or keynote speaker at over 40 international events. He has also served the United Nations Development Programme as Chief Scientist for its Program of Chinese Rural Water Resources Management and Drinking Water Safety. His pioneering work in environmental risk management has been recognized as a significant innovation, and has influenced government and business approaches for tackling environmental challenges and formulating related policies. Over 30 of his PhD graduates were appointed as faculty members at universities in Canada, USA, UK, Singapore, Hongkong and China.
Prof. Guangwei Huang (Keynote Speaker)
Sophia University, Japan
Biography:Dr. Huang is a Professor in the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University, Japan. He also serves as the Director of the Institute for the Study of the Global Environment, Sophia University at present. He received his Bachelor from Fudan University, China, Master and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Tokyo. His career includes Associate Professor in Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, the University of Tokyo; Professor for Joint Educational Program between International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO and National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. Passionate about water, his study evolved from fluid dynamics to water quality modeling and to integrated watershed science and management. In recent years, his main research focus is sustainability science from water perspective such as wetland conservation and wise use, integration of flood risk analysis with urban planning and innovative water resources development. He has about 80 peer-reviewed publications and some of representative contributions were published in internationally well-known journals such as Sustainability, Hydrobiologia, Natural Hazards, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, International Journal of River Basin Management, Journal of Environmental Informatics and so forth.
Prof. Wen-yan Chiau(Keynote Speaker)
National Taiwan Ocean University, Taiwan ROC
Speech Title: Water and Sustainable Development: Legislation and Policy in Taiwan
Deputy director of administration, environmental protection department; Professor and director, institute of Marine affairs and resource management, national Taiwan ocean university; President of the wetland conservation alliance of the republic of China (now renamed as Taiwan wetland conservation alliance); President of the Marine pollution prevention and control association of the republic of China (now renamed Taiwan Marine pollution prevention and control association); CEO of ocean Taiwan culture and education foundation
Biograpphy: Dr. Wen-Yan Chiau is a chair professor of National Taiwan Ocean University (NTOU) and National Sun Yat-sen University of Taiwan. He used to be the director and a professor of Institute of Marine Affairs and Resource Management as well as the dean of College of Ocean Law and Policy of NTOU. Dr. Chiau has been actively participating NGOs' activities for more than 25 years. He served as the President of "Wetlands Taiwan", the president of "Taiwan Association on Marine Pollution Control", the CEO of "Foundation of Ocean Taiwan" as well as an executive member with many environmental organizatons. Dr. Chiau received his M.A. (1989) and Ph.D. (1991) from the University of Pennsylvania, U.S. after earning his B.S. (1976) and LL.M. (1980) degrees in Taiwan. He was honored with "Canadian Studies Award" in 1995 and 2002, "National Cheng Kung University Distinguished Alumni Award" in 2015 and "Lifetime Contribution Award" by Taiwan Institute of Landscape Architects in 2016. Chiau's specialties are environmental planning and management, especially with regard to the areas of city and regional planning, climate change, coastal zone management, wetland conservation, ecotourism, underwater heritage, ocean policies and environmental law. As an oceanographer and a planner, Chiau has drafted such marine blueprints as the "Vision of Maritime Countries" in 1996, the "Recommendations for Maritime Affairs Organization" in 2000, the "Ocean White Paper" in 2001, the "National Vision for the Golden Decade" concerning the ocean and wetlands protection policy in 2002, the "Ocean Policy White Paper" in 2006, the "Ocean Education White Paper" in 2007, and the "Blue Revolution and Ocean Nation" policy in 2008. Chiau also participated in rescuing the "Free China Junk". Chiau was appointed as the Deputy Minister of the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), Executive Yuan in August 2008. In 2011, he was nominated by the Kuomintang Party as the legislator-at-large. In his 4-year term with the Parliament, he involved in the amendment of Water Act, drew up and successfully passed some 12 important laws including Underwater Cultural Heritage Preservation Act, Museum Act, Spatial Planning Act, Coastal Zone Management Act, Wetland Conservation Act, Greenhouse Gases Reduction and Management Act as well as the four laws on the organization of Council of Marine Affairs. Recently, he participated in an expert team to draft Ocean Basic Law for Ocean Affair Council of Taiwan.
Prof. Xiang Zhang( Keynote Speaker)
Wuhan University , China
Speech Title: Urban Water Security: Opportunity and Challenges for the Sponge City Construction in ChinaBiography: Prof. Zhang xiang, is now professor and doctoral supervisor of wuhan university.In 1998, he received a doctor's degree in hydrology and water resources from sichuan university. Currently, he is director of the hydrology and water resources experimental research center, director of the natural resources society of China, member of the water resources committee, member of the wetland resources protection committee, and member of the water resources committee of the China association for sustainable development. Research interests: sustainable water resources management based on ecohydrology, watershed ecohydrology model, river and lake ecological restoration, integrated water environment management in lake basins, isotope hydrology.
Prof. DawenYang( Keynote Speaker)
Tsinghua University, China
Speech Title: TBABiograpphy: TBA


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Mixing & Mastering Engineers who worked with DJ Phuze
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Sound designer, producer and ghost producer for over 20 years, mobile DJ for over 9 years, club DJ for over 3 years. I will mix, master, produce, co-produce, ghost write and remix your productions based on your voice or musical ideas (vocal samples / midi).
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Mixing, custom production including pop, hip hop, rnb. Songwriting and Full records.
As a producer, recording and mixing engineer, Matt has, and continues to work with ensembles across many diverse styles of music, from period ensembles of the Renaissance and Baroque, to contemporary tango, punk, metal, choir, and traditional and modern classical.
Unique producer looking to make something amazing happen.
I've spent the last 7 years working at studios and with producers and artists all over Los Angeles. I find an art and science to manipulating vocals to get an outcome of the perfect performance.
Audio is my passion. Definitely. From pre production right through to producing the pre master, but I must say that mixing and mastering are quite special and this is exactly what I want to offer here.
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We are a creative music agency located in Brussels (Belgium) with 3 fulltime engineers. One production and mixing engineer, a mastering engineer and one multi-instrumentalist. We can provide you with a complete production, mixing and mastering service. We are most active in the EDM - Pop - RnB genre
I'm very good at creating different sounds for artists, as well as reading the song as a whole, I apply the lyrics, melody and style to give you the individuality that oozes uniqueness and will make you stand out.
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Mac and Geoff go deep on two records that have a lot in common: First, they discuss Chastity's big feels alt-rock stunner Death Lust and then they go deep on what they consider one of the best Canadian rock albums of all time, Beautiful Midnight by Matthew Good Band.
Featured Tracks:
"Suffer" by Chastity
"Giant" by Matthew Good Band
"Load Me Up" by Matthew Good Band
"Born To Kill" by Matthew Good Band
"Red Light Syndrome" by Piner
Mac Cameron
CoFounder at DOMINIONATED
While he is generally level-headed, Mac tends to get passionate about music. He was a contributor to Quick Before It Melts and is a member of Somersaulter.
Latest posts by Mac Cameron (see all)
- Steven Lambke, Dark Blue - April 3, 2019
- Attack in Black, Years (By One Thousand Fingertips) - March 24, 2019
- Orville Peck, Pony - March 22, 2019


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Marlins starter Pablo Lopez on his outing tonight, execution of pitches
5 days ago - By Fox Sports
Marlins pitcher Pablo Lopez talks his outing tonight, going through the batting order more than once, and the execution of his pitches.
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The headlines of Sportyst
Today's Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting pitchers for Monday
Whether you're looking for a streamer in your season-long fantasy baseball league or trying to hit on a winner in FanDuel or DraftKings contests, we rank Monday's starting...
Preview: Rays looking to pull out of 4-game losing streak with series opener...
The Tampa Bay Rays will try to put being swept by the Boston Red Sox behind them Monday night when they begin a three-game set against the Kansas City Royals.
Preview: Rays try to pull out of recent slump, avoid getting swept by Red Sox
The Tampa Bay Rays wrap up their series against the defending-champion Boston Red Sox on Sunday afternoon.
Red Sox beat AL East-leading Rays 4-3 in 11 to finish sweep
Ramon Laureano makes play of the year with insane home run robbery
Ramon Laureano submits an early nominee for 'Play of the Year' with an insane home run robbery that turns into a double play.
Boston avoids big early hole with sweep of Rays
The Red Sox trail the Rays by five games in the AL East, but it could have been a lot worse
HIGHLIGHTS: Padres plate four runs in 3rd inning en route to 4-3 victory
Josh Donaldson jacks a pair of home runs in Atlanta's convincing win over...
Josh Donaldson jacks a pair of home runs in Atlanta's convincing win over Cleveland. Atlanta improves to 10-10 on the season.
WATCH: Mondesi, Gordon and Dozier step up during Royals' six-run eighth inning
Adalberto Mondesi had a two-run double, Alex Gordon hit a three-run homer and Hunter Dozier had a solo shot as the Royals fought back to take the lead in the eighth inning of...
Blue Jays lose another starter, win another game against A's
Justin Smoak got thrown out on a wild sequence that began with another sensational play by Oakland centre fielder Ramon Laureano, but wound up with four hits as the Toronto...


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NBC's Today show continued its hot streak this past week as the most-watched morning show, extending its streak to five consecutive weeks at the top of the heap across all relevant measurements, ahead of both CBS and ABC.
Today is also coming off its first November sweeps win in total viewers since 2011.
Despite the notable wins, Today, like its competitors, continues to post year-over-year audience losses. The program was -2 percent in total viewers and -4 percent among adults 25-54 vs. what it drew during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week in 2017.
The No. 2 morning show this past week, ABC's Good Morning America was -4 percent in total viewers and -10 percent in adults 25-54 vs. the comparable week in 2017. Despite the year-over-year dropoff across the board, GMA remains the most-watched morning show for the 2018-'19 broadcast season to-date, to take the top spot at this point of the season for the 7th year in a row.
CBS This Morning was -15 percent in total viewers and -14 percent in adults 25-54 vs. the comparable week last year, which was a chaotic one low-lighted by the firing of Charlie Rose from both CBS News and PBS for inappropriate sexual misconduct spanning decades.
Some additional context – due to the Thanksgiving holiday, ABC's and NBC's weekly averages are based on two days (Monday-Tuesday), while CBS's weekly average is based on three days (Monday-Tuesday and Wednesday).
The averages for the week of Nov. 19, 2018:
|• Total Viewers:
Source: The Nielsen Company, NTI Total Viewers, Adults 25-54 Live + SD weeks of 11/19/18, 11/12/18 and 11/20/17. Most Current: 2018 -2019 Season (9/24 – 11/25/18) and 2017-2018 Season (9/25 – 11/26/17). Averages based on regular telecasts.


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Gutter Cleaners Near Campton IL
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Our Rain Gutter Cleaning Method
- Random Particles on roofing is blown into rain gutter or gathered with a rake.
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Check Out The Blog: The Best Ways To Clean Gutters
Campton IL Gutter Cleaning
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Home | Locations | Gutter Cleaning
The Benefits of Hiring Qualified Professional Gutter Cleaners
While not having to clear, clean and maintain a blockage yourself is a fantastic perk, it's far from the only benefit you'll get when you hire skilled professionals to clear, clean and maintain your rain gutters. If you have thought twice in the past due to the fear of gutter cleaning expense, bear in mind that a lot of gutter cleaning companies charge very reasonable rates.
There are 2 main benefits you get when you employ a skilled professional to clear and clean out a blockage in your rain gutters. Initially, they are going to do a better job than you will. Sure, you might be willing to put in the effort, but no matter how hard you are willing to work, your work will never measure up to what a genuine professional can do. Professional gutter cleaners have training that you don't have, and they have access to the tools and gear necessary to clean your gutters properly.
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Using A Professional Is Your Best Option.
You might be the kind of home-owner that likes to do a job yourself whenever possible, but if you are dealing with a gutter block this is not the kind of job you ought to be undertaking. This is the kind of job that you need to be paying a skilled professional to do. It is that straightforward. You've already made the mistake by disregarding your gutters which has made it possible for an obstruction to form. , don't compound your error and make things worse by attempting to take care of the problem yourself. Hire a qualified professional to remove the blockage and clean your gutters so that you will understand that the job is done right.


text: Michael Everson scripsit: > >In that situation, > >people want to be able to label that content so that it is ambiguous with > >regard to Mexican vs. Colombian (vs. Guatemalan vs. Argentinan etc) > >distinctions -- but they still want to maintain a distinction from Spain. > > "They"? Can we see some actual content? I am not sure this category > is really valid. The stories reachable from http://www.reutershealth.com/frame2/eline_es.html are by intention written in es-america. We also have other material, not yet available online, that is written in es-es. This distinction is important to our customers: in particular, we do not attempt to market the es-america material in Spain at present, whereas the es-es material is potentially saleable everywhere. News articles rarely, if ever, contain any second-person pronouns, and generally use formal rather than informal terms for buses and the like: in our case, autob˙s. -- John Cowan <firstname.lastname@example.com> http://www.reutershealth.com I amar prestar aen, han mathon ne nen, http://www.ccil.org/~cowan han mathon ne chae, a han noston ne 'wilith. --Galadriel, _LOTR:FOTR_