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Lunchtime Concert
The Escher Quartet performs at the City of London Festival
Radio 3 New Generation Artists, the Escher Quartet, perform in Tuesday's Lunchtime Concert, live from the City of London Festival. In 'A Postcard from America's East Coast' the young musicians present Bartók's String Quartet No. 3, Zemlinsky's Yankee Doodle, and Dvořák's String Quartet No. 12 in F major. The Quartet, whose members are Adam Barnett-Hart (Violin), Wu Jie (Violin), Pierre Lapointe (Viola), and Dane Johansen (Cello), is renowned for its unique sound and fresh approach.
- Article Type: | TV and Radio |


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subset: commoncrawl


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Kambal Karibal is one of the most famous and popular serial of the Lambingan Orihinal na may Tv Replay Online.The following Kambal Karibal July 23 2018 has been released. This site. And add us on Facebook for update!!! Enjoy. Kambal Karibal July 23 2018 LambinganTv.
Video Source: Official Player
Telecast Date: July 23 2018
Distributed by: ABS-CBN – GMA Official Website


text:
Sweet Remains bring harmonies to Levitt
It could be easy to let the miles get between them, but for members of The Sweet Remains, such distance has no bearing when it comes to the harmonious bond, in song and spirit, that formed when the band came together about six years ago.
"We definitely call ourselves geographically challenged," said Greg Naughton, during a telephone interview from New York City, where he lives.
The Sweet Remains -- Naughton, Rich Price of Burlington, Vt., and Brian Chartrand, of Phoenix -- is a trio of singer-songwriters whose love for lyrically rich music in three-part harmonies has led to three albums, including "Laurel & Sunset" in 2009, its live version "Live at the Canal Room," and "North & Prospect," which was released last year.
While all three have had or continue to enjoy solo careers, it was a meeting in 2008 that got the wheels turning on a collaborative approach. "I had known Rich for a fairly long time, and we had started writing and working together and playing together," said Naughton, who had contributed to Price's 2004 Geffen Records debut, which included the single "I'm On My Way" that was on the "Shrek 2" soundtrack. "We were fans of the harmonies that we were doing ... but we wished we had that third harmony."
It was another several years before Price crossed paths with Chartrand. "Rich was doing a solo tour across the country ... and he said, `I think I found the guy,' " Naughton said. So, the three got together in a hotel room in Rhode Island and began to play.
"Fairly instantly, we were all kind of excited and convinced that we had found something that would keep us busy for a while," Naughton said.
For Naughton, who grew up in Weston, it was a chance to shift gears from his solo work and concentrate on a collaborative experience -- and the timing could not have come sooner.
"For me, it was a much happier equation," he said. The addition of like-minded musicians gave him a boost at a time he had been considering a hiatus from the music business.
Naughton, whose father is actor and singer James Naughton, had come to music from a theater background and had discovered that a solo career in music lacked the creative collaborations he enjoyed while working in theater. "That was the biggest void for me," he said.
With Sweet Remains, Naughton found kindred spirits, in musical temperament and creative process -- more was better. Such mutual respect leads to a smooth songwriting process, which often takes place on the road in between performances.
Perhaps some will take place this week when the trio makes an appearance at the Levitt Pavilion for the Performing Arts on Friday, Aug. 22, in Westport.
For Naughton, he knows the place well, having grown up in nearby Weston, and he will likely get to know it better, since he soon will move to Westport with his family.
"We come at (the music) with the same view, the same aesthetic, as we all lean toward folk rock," Naughton said of the band. "But we have all developed specialties."
Naughton tends to seek more complicated vocal arrangements, while Price pushes for more complicated arrangements. Chartrand typically seeks simplicity in the sound.
"Even all that tends to work out," Naughton said, adding that their last record reflects that multi-layered approach. "Each of us has an expertise and those songs reflect that."
Recently, the band has enjoyed success on the online music service Spotify where its single "Dance With Me," from the band's first album, has received more than 2 million listens. Still, Naughton said he's pleased the band's success has gone on apace, slowly and steadily, which affords time to have side projects, time with friends and families and a manageable touring schedule.
"Negotiating three different people's lives and egos is not easy," he said. "But this has obviously been worth it to us."
firstname.lastname@example.com; Twitter: @xtinahennessy
Levitt Pavilion for the Performing Arts, 40 Jesup Road, Westport. Friday, Aug. 22, 8 p.m. Free. 203-221-2153, www.levittpavilion.com.


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codeworksplus needed a new web page design and created a contest on 99designs.
A winner was selected from 19 designs submitted by 11 freelance designers.
I need a layout done for an upcoming election. This layout is for a political site for an upcoming election in Louisiana for district attorney. The domain is http://www.thetruthaboutcraigsmith.com. Good luck to all.
Please make this site to the best of your ability. I need 4 or 5 nav buttons across the top and after that use your imagination. I will post as we go what i like and/or don't like and feel free to submit more than one design.
Professional looking layout. This is not SFW/NSFW.
Cartoonish looking.


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The collaborative studio announced at AFM it has teamed up with the crowdfunding platform and greenlit Sharon Is Caring, the fourth project selected by JuntoBox co-chairman Forest Whitaker.
The partnership with Indiegogo includes the creation of a JuntoBox Films branded partner page on Indiegogo.com and grants access by films on the crowdsourcing platform to JuntoBox's mentorship, production and distribution services.
"Everyone has a story to tell, and we believe everyone should be given a voice," said Whitaker. "This partnership with Indiegogo represents another step toward using social collaboration and the elements of our digital world to empower the voices of independent filmmakers everywhere."
"Indiegogo's roots were in film, so we're excited to partner with JuntoBox to further extend our reach within the independent film community," said Indiegogo CEO and co-founder Slava Rubin. "The JuntoBox Partner Page on Indiegogo will empower filmmakers to raise money for their films, tap into a global audience and bring more independent film projects to life."


text: After you recover from the 18-stair backside noseblunt-slide on the cover, take in Miles Silvas' Roll Call, a Crock Pot on Ty Evans and Brain Farm, Element in France (video coming next week!), this insane Busenitz 9 Frames, Transmission: Peter Raffin, Sightings, and The Osiris Experience. Plus Check Outs with Joseph Delgado, Mike Abarta, and Blue Turner, our Agenda Sneak Peek, and a Still Life that'll get you ready for the weekend.


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HANG TIME SOUTHWEST — The Brooklyn Nets' nightmarish season just turned darker. All-Star center Brook Lopez has a broken foot and is out for the season, according to multiple reports Saturday morning.
The 7-footer has battled a sprained left ankle all season and played in just 17 of the struggling Nets' 26 games. But when he's played, he's been very good, averaging 20.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 1.8 bpg while shooting 56 percent from the floor. He played 44 minutes in Friday's 121-120 loss at the Philadelphia 76ers, just his second game back from the ankle sprain, that dropped Brooklyn to 9-17. Still, they are amazingly just 2.5 games back of first-place Boston in the underwhelming Atlantic Division.
If that indeed is the play when Lopez broke his foot, he not only stayed in the game, but managed to play 9:53 after that. But any chance of making a move is now severely hampered. This was supposed to be a championship contender. Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov approved a payroll that will reach nearly $190 million in salary and luxury tax. Brooklyn traded for Celtics greats Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, plus Jason Terry, and signed Andrei Kirilenko. Yet, all have been injured in some form or fashion, and rookie head coach Jason Kidd has seemed to be in over his head.
More troubling than just this season's failure to compete must be Lopez's future. He has broken his foot multiple times and for a big man that is ominous, with Bill Walton and more recently Yao Ming being prime examples of careers cut short.
Lopez, 25, signed a $60 million deal with the Nets in July 2012 after it became clear the Nets' long pursuit of Dwight Howard would never happen. Lopez played in all 82 games for the first three seasons of his career, but during the preseason of the 2011-12 lockout-shortened season he broke his right foot and missed the first 32 games of the season. He played in 74 games last season and was selected as a reserve to his first All-Star team.
The Nets' hopes for this season greatly hinged on Lopez and point guard Deron Williams being healthy and performing at an elite level. But injuries have dogged both players. Williams has played in just 15 games due to ankle issues and his performances have been erratic, averaging just 12.7 ppg, his lowest scoring average since his rookie season, and 7.6 apg.
Lopez's likely replacement in the starting lineup will be Andray Blatche with Mason Plumlee and Reggie Evans.
This Nets season was already headed toward being one of the most underachieving in NBA history, going all the way back to, well, last season's All-Star-studded Los Angeles Lakers team that was predicted by many to challenge for 70 wins, but barely made the playoffs and was swept out in the first round.
Now, even with the state of the Atlantic Division, chances of turning this two-month nightmare into a fairy tale seems more remote than Kidd and former top assistant Lawrence Frank feasting over Christmas dinner once the Nets and the injury-crippled Chicago Bulls complete their once highly anticipated Christmas Day matchup at the Barclays Center.


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The Guild Leader of my guild just got his account hacked. The criminal made off with the guild bank, all his gear, and /gkicked and /demoted some folks. This apparently happened sometime last night.
Priestly Endeavors has a post about exactly this kind of event occuring to someone else, and some further links.
Doing some research I also found a forum post by a player named Skee.
I'm going to repeat his Suggestions, Fortifications, and Tips & Tricks right now. You might want to look into this.
Suggestions1: Use Firefox and stop using Internet Explorer. Really, its an internet browser that is made out of win ,while IE is easy to manipulate due to its Bug loops, that keylogging sites can/ and will use to install one to your computer.
2: Install BlockSite , an Firefox addon ( https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/3145 ).
Blocksite prevents certain domains from loading and its very easy to configure. For example,to prevent all ".cn " domains, you enter " *.cn " in the Blacklist. The symbol " * " means that Blocklist will block all sites that are .cn .
3: Install KeyScrambler . (https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/3383) .
KeyScrambler encrypts whatever you type in Websites ,although it doesn't work while in Games , but it helps in General when accessing Websites that are not protected.
4: No Script! ( https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/722 ) Whoever doesn't use that , is really missing out a lot!
Noscript is one of the addons on the internet, that makes website browsing safe! It Disables all scripts on the site you visit, thus disabling all Viruses,spyware and keyloggers entering infecting your computer through Flash/Scripts.
5: WOT (https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/3456)
Wot protects you from Phishing Websites through *Ratting" given by the visitors. If you want to be safer,you can enable an option that, upon entering a dangerous website,it will change the whole page's color to Red and State that its dangerous! (It wont let you Enter).
3)Safe internet browser (as stated above)
4)Logic aka *Using Brain properly*.
5)Registry Optimizer
6)Keylogging Tricks! (Must Read)
1) People tend to think that Keyloggers are plain scripts writen to Keep account of what is being typed under special events. For example, under the event of me, the owner , opening WoW. Thats when the keylogger will start to function and until then it stays out of sight(Undetected).That happends due to the keyloggers wanting only your Account and password , instead of your MSN account or hotmail.(in the case of WoW), But lets not forget that since it infects and its malicious,then it falls in the Virus/Malware category. Hence the "WoWpw.backdoor" ,"PWstealer.trojan32″ etc. So don't go looking for Anti Keylogger programs when you can use some Proper Anti Virus software.
Remember just because a Anti Virus software is made by a very well known company/ or is expensive,doesn't mean its Good and effective.
Norton which is known for Good Antivirus programs has failed me a lot of times, and my System is up to date with everything.And its not only me,ask around the internet, people are starting to use other Anti Virus products that are far more Effective.
AVG is an antivirus that is just as effective as others,and you can use the free edition.The only think that is lacks, is the Good looking UI,but we dont want that,we want it to find the keylogger!
If you prefer to use products from well known companies,then Panda,Norton and Macafee are for you!
– http://www.pandasecurity.com
– http://www.mcafee.com/
– http://www.symantec.com/
2) Keyloggers are also seen as spyware since it steals documents/ keeps an eye for things it shouldn't.
One of the best is Spybot Search and Destroy, hands down!Make sure its always Updated!
3)Browsers are all above. 🙂
4) Using your brain when searching and surfing the net,and the WoW Forums is very important,actually by using it all the time and staying in alarm, you will avoid all the dodgy links like the <insert wierd keylogging site>
5) ASO, also known as Advanced System Optimizer by Systweak, is a program that does everything! It can scan your registry for modifications/flaws, scan your system for malware and even repair/delete junk,its very useful and by using ASO you can find changed registry data that has to do with the keylogger.
6) Last but not least, the *tricks of the trade*.
a)Never Ever click on links that redirect. The links that redirect have the word "redir" in the Url.
b)Do not trust links from Tìny Url . That site takes the original url and names makes it smaller, but the thing is,that you don't know the original name of the site. The site could be one that has keyloggers.
c) Don't log onto World of Warcraft forums that dont start/ dont have to do with " wow-europe.com, worldofwarcraft.com" and the others ones of the other countries! Sites like
http://000.000.0000.00post.html?forumId=10001&postId=16400481355&op=2&sid=1 should not be trusted.(The website that has been posted isn't a true/valid one and it doesn't lead anywhere. Common sense since its all consisted of Zeros ( 0 ) instead of an IP. So In before the *Keylogger* statement)
But do keep in mind,that sometimes the cache bugs and instead of showing "wow-europe",it will show an IP when logging to the Warcraft forums.Many people call those sites *phishing sites* but it may just be your PCs fault. To be sure before clicking, insert the IP in the following site ( http://www.arin.net/whois/ ) . If its Blizzards website, it will say so " Blizzard Entertainment etc".
Browser Security Scanning: It has been proven that by having IE with enabled active X, even without using IE , makes your system vulnerable so disabling and adjusting options that have to do with 3rd programs and Active X is a must. This website offers that kind of service. When you start the Test it find security Flaws and lets you know how to fix them. Recommended!
I hope that i have been of help in this Topic of mine. I would like to see this topic turn into a sicky,so if you liked it please take the time of reporting it as a sticky.
This guide was writen as a sole purpose to inform and help out victims of Keyloggers.
Kind Regards, Skee.
Thanks so much Skee.
Folks, this happens. Be safe, play happy.


text:
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text:
As I prepared for this interview, it turned out that there wasn't much information available on drummer and keyboardist Bill Vitt; an album credit here or there and an audio interview but no website or detailed biography. That ended up not being a problem since the 70 year old musician was an easygoing subject who was willing to tackle the past, present and future.
His lengthy performing and recording career includes work with Michael Bloomfield Band, Sons of Champlin, Tom Fogerty (Creedence Clearwater Revival), Pee Wee Ellis, Ivan Neville, Sonny & Cher, Freddie King, the Coasters, James Cotton, Charlie Musselwhite, Chris Hayes (Huey Lewis & the News), Nick Daniels (Dumpstaphunk, Neville Brothers), Eddie Harris, Tony Saunders, Billy Connors (Chic Corea), Felton Cruise (Miles Davis) and Eydie Gorme.
But, Vitt's best known for his drumming in the ad hoc grouping of Merl Saunders (keyboards), Jerry Garcia (vocals, guitar) and John Kahn (bass) which played together at Berkeley's Keystone club. Taking place in a pre-internet age, these jam sessions presented an opportunity to try something new in public without it being immediately judged.
A set of recordings that came out of those dates – Live at Keystone Vol. 1, Live at Keystone Vol. 2 and Keystone Encores – displayed an ensemble that was deeply locked in a shared groove, instinctually understood the art of swing and dialed into the artful dance of improvisation.
Although Saunders, Garcia, Kahn and Vitt played numerous gigs over a four-year span, the Keystone releases were based on two dates — July 10 and 11, 1973 — and then separated to make up the three albums. The recently-released "Keystone Companions" puts those concerts into their original running order and adds seven previously unreleased tracks. The four CDs displays the breadth of this band in its combination of originals and covers — the reggae of Jimmy Cliff, a couple Bob Dylan classics, Motown, Great American Songbook, blues, rockabilly and jazz. The packaging includes vintage photos, poster, a beer coaster and matchbook. A double vinyl LP reissue of "Live at Keystone" has also been released.
The box set was the reason to contact Vitt but my conversation with him flowed from his recollections of his Keystone days, his musical background and what he learned from his jazz musician father to session work in Los Angeles, his brief retirement from music in favor of running a winery and his current endeavors including work on a new solo album with Bill Champlin (Sons of Champlin), Tony Saunders and Nicks Daniels (Dumpstaphunk) and performing in SSV and Keystone Revisited, which tackles the material contained on the Keystone releases.
JPG: How did you get involved with the original jam sessions?
BV: It was '69. There was a little club called the Matrix in San Francisco and it was just a show place. There was no dancing or anything. And they had a four-track studio built in the club. A lot of the now famous San Francisco bands debuted there. They put their bands together there. Tower of Power is one of them.
A friend of mine named Howard Wales, a keyboard/organ player; he and I were playing a duo there. Backed up Freddie King, James Cotton people like that. Jerry Garcia came in one night and jammed with us. And he started coming in on a regular basis. Then, I got us a bass player named Richard Feebas who was signed with the Oakland Symphony at the time. Shortly after that, another bass player named John Kahn, who I was doing a lot of sessions with and playing in other bands with, he came and replaced Richard. Eventually, within a couple years Merl Saunders replaced Howard Wales. So, that was the core of the band, the four of us at that point.
As we started playing more gigs, Tom Fogerty (Creedence Clearwater Revival) played with us a lot and Armanda Peraza, percussionist, Martin Fierro, horn player (saxophonist). It was still a jam thing. We never rehearsed. We just went out and played. So, that's pretty much how it started.
We did do one record with Howard Wales called Hooteroll? It was on Columbia.
JPG: When Garcia originally played at the Matrix was it a matter of him showing up and then he was called onstage or did Howard or someone else invite him down?
BV: Howard and Jerry were good friends. I don't remember exactly how it came down but it was probably Howard said, "Hey, come on down and sit in with us." At that time a lot of these bands were just building up a reputation and getting record deals so pretty much everybody knew everybody. So, we had a lot of people coming to sit in with us from time to time. Jerry, he's a hard worker. He made every gig and practiced all the time. He was really serious about his music. So, it was a lot of fun playing with him.
JPG: Then, how did it move to Keystone?
BV: We started playing local gigs and that was a good place to play. It was a big club. The money was good because we packed the place, and Freddie Herrera, the owner of Keystone, brought in name bands and built the place up. He also added another club in the North Beach of San Francisco called the Keystone. So, he had two different clubs going.
The club in San Francisco, he sold that to a guy who turned it into a jazz club. We played at Keystone a lot. That was a happening place. I think they had music seven nights a week. It was a very hot spot. It was kinda like the Fillmore and Winterland, a really good place to play.
JPG: When you were playing at Keystone, did you have any idea that the shows were being recorded by Betty Cantor?
BV: Oh yeah! In fact I just did a thing with Betty with a friend of mine. We just did a CD and she did the engineering and recording. As far as I know I think she recorded all of those dates. Her boyfriend at the time, who passed away, [Rex] Jackson, he was another guy who was recording with her. So, she has the credit of doing all the recording, and she did a great job.
I just listened to the new release, and I can't believe the quality. I haven't listened to that stuff for 30 years. I was really amazed at the quality. Whoever remastered it, everything was really nice. I was very impressed. I was doing so much work back then that I never got a chance to really listen to what I did. That's playing with a lot of different bands and recording with different bands, I just didn't have time.
So, I got a chance the last couple of days to actually listen to it in my car and was very impressed, actually.
JPG: Are you able to compare this release to the original Keystone releases?
BV: I don't know. The first one with Howard Wales, Hooteroll? was a really good record. Alan Douglas produced that and he had quite a reputation in New York. We spent a lot of time on that record. There was a lot of really neat stuff going on. And then, the stuff we did with Merl Saunders had a different flavor to it.
I don't know. We did a lot more gigs than I thought we did (slight laugh) considering all the records that have come out. I didn't realize that we played that many gigs and were recorded but apparently so.
I was just really impressed. I couldn't believe it. Usually old music, I don't even listen to it but I was impressed, I must say.
JPG: You had to go into different areas during those shows, for example, a jazzy flavor on "High-Heal Sneakers" and "My Funny Valentine" to something funky on "Keepers." What about your background? Was it jazz or…?
BV: Ohhhh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I had quite a bit of experience before I joined them. Actually, I moved to L.A. for three years in the mid-'60s to be a studio musician. That was my goal and that's what I ended up doing. And I recorded with people like Eydie Gorme and Cathy Carlson. I did most of my work with Don Costa who was Frank Sinatra's producer. So, I got a lot of work out of Don Costa.
Then, I decided that I really missed northern California. So, I moved back up here. Within a week or two I got a gig with Michael Bloomfield. Actually, we were called the Electric Flag then. I got the last gig or two with the Electric Flag when Buddy Miles went off to do another thing. So, it turned into the Michael Bloomfield Band, which I stuck with for awhile. Then, I was playing with Bill Champlin. It was the Sons of Champlin. They made changes and added a new drummer and bass player, and I was the new drummer and did that for awhile. Then, I played with a lot of other bands, too, but the Garcia band was one of my priorities. It was a lot of fun.


text:
|The Chemical Warfare Service:
Chemicals in Combat
Brooks E. Kleber, Dale Birdsell
Some users may encounter difficulties opening these files from the server. If the entire document will not open, select "Save" instead of "Open". Once the file has been saved to your hard drive it should open without any problem.


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Class to be Held on Making Healthier Food Choices Away From Home
Active families, including those with youth in sports and other extracurricular activities, are very much on the go, resulting in their eating many meals and snacks away from home. Join Megan Sexton from Healthy South Dakota and SDSU Extension to learn strategies on how to make healthier food choices away from home.
Healthier Food Choices Away From Home will be held on Monday, November 19, 2012, at 6 p.m. at Kuehn Community Center, located at 2801 S. Valley View Road. The class is free but registration is required.
For more information regarding this and other programs, please refer to the current fall Activities Guide; find us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube; log on to www.siouxfalls.org/parks; or call the Park Office at 367-8222.


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"Speaking for myself, and I'm fairly sure the government will back me up on this, there is no question that the government needs our journalists," Peiris told the delegation in his office. "They must come back and work with us and help set up the structures so that we can work together and we can respect each other. We must work with these institutions because we need them. We know if they stay outside and attack the government that is not useful."
When asked if the government would ensure their safety, Peries said, "Of course, if they come back, there must be assurance on our part that they won't come to any harm."
Pereis made the statements to CPJ Deputy Director Robert
Mahoney and Asia Program Coordinator
The January voting resulted in a landslide victory for incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Post-election disputes saw the arrest of the chief opposition candidate, former general Sareth Fonseka, who is being held as the government prepares charges against him and many of his supporters.
"The attorney general's appeal to journalists to return from exile is just a first step," said Mahoney. "The government must go further by taking concrete action to address the climate of impunity and intimidation that prompted them to flee in the first place."
Sri Lankan journalists told CPJ about growing harassment from the government. Sri Lankan journalism is noted for its high degree of partisanship, and most media sided clearly with either Rajapaksa or Fonseka. State media heavily favored the incumbent, and staff at some state-owned media protested the violation of neutrality. Independent media chose to back one candidate, with few remaining neutral.
"Many journalists with whom we met in
The January 24 disappearance of Prageeth Eknelygoda, a political reporter for Lanka eNews, an opposition, pro-Fonseka Web site, remains unresolved. Eknelygoda's wife, Sandhya, has repeatedly written to authorities, including President Rajapaksa, pleading for news of her husband's whereabouts. The Sinhala-language opposition weekly Lanka's editor, Chandana Sirimalwatte, was arrested on January 29, held for 19 days, and released with no charges brought against him. Earlier this week, Sandurwan Senadeera, Lanka eNews' owner and editor, left the country after repeated threats on his life. CPJ estimates there are more than 15 Sri Lankan journalists who are now in exile, having fled to country in fear of their safety.


text: Ngai Chuen Ching a.k.a Victo Ngai's work entices you. Her illustrations are detailed narratives, that inspire you make up a story of your own to go along with each one. Victo uses illustration as a way to find her true identity and explore her different cultural backgrounds. She recently graduated from the Rhode Island School of Design and has already been featured in Communication Arts as well as Society of Illustrators NY. Who knows what she will amaze us with in the future!


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BENGHAZI, Libya—Young men in fatigues hang around outside the offices of the National Transitional Council, carrying rifles and flashing V (for victory) signs at visitors. Inside, older men in leather jackets drink tea on sofas, while temporary officials cope with clashing appointments and race up and down the hallways. It's just how one imagines the Smolny Institute, Lenin's St. Petersburg headquarters, in 1917: amateur, enthusiastic, disorganized, rumor-filled, and slightly paranoid, all at once. Though in Smolny there were no ringing cellphones to add to the general cacophony.
And at least the Russian revolutionaries were operating within what had been a functioning society. By contrast, Libya's late dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, has left an unprecedented, even weird vacuum in his wake. Post-revolutionary Libya is truly a desert, not only in the geographic sense but in the political, economic, even psychological senses too.
Look, by contrast, at Libya's post-revolutionary neighbors. Egypt has a sophisticated economy, a middle class, foreign investors, and an enormous tourist industry, not to mention a long history of financial interaction with the rest of the world. Tunisia has a highly educated and articulate population, which has long been exposed to French media and political ideas. More than 90 percent of Tunisians voted in the country's first free elections last weekend. Outside observers proclaimed the voting impeccably fair.
Libya, by contrast, has neither a sophisticated economy, nor an articulate population, nor any political experience whatsoever. There were no political parties under Qaddafi—not even fake, government-controlled political parties. There was no media, or even reliable information, to speak of. Libyan journalists were the most heavily controlled in the Arab world, hardly anyone has Internet access, and there is no tradition of investigative reporting. During four decades in power, Qaddafi destroyed the army, the civil service, and the educational system. The country produces nothing except oil, and none of the profits from that oil ever seem to have trickled down to anybody. Some 60 percent of the population works for the government, at very low salaries—a few hundred dollars a month. There is hardly any infrastructure, outside of a few roads. There is hardly any social life, since so many young people were too poor to marry. And even if there were social life, there wouldn't be any public spaces to enjoy it: Trash is scattered along the undeveloped beaches, and old plastic bags blow across weed-clogged city parks.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and of course, in the absence of an army, militias may step into the breach. At the moment, some 27 of them, from cities all over Libya, have taken up residence in Tripoli compounds and spray-painted their names on the barricades. In the absence of regulatory bodies, newborn newspapers may well fall into the hands of business and political groups with foreign or old regime connections too. When I met the deputy chairman of the NTC, Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, we discussed another "Russian" scenario: Newspapers start out enthusiastic and free, as they did in Moscow in the 1990s, but are gradually bought up by business conglomerates—until eventually they return to government control. The same fate could await new political parties.
And yet—Libya's unprecedented vacuum also offers unprecedented opportunities. One Libyan journalist, the editor of a brand-new magazine that he has personally financed and staffed with volunteers, points out that none of his journalists ever learned to write regime propaganda, and all of them are therefore committed to telling "the truth." The nonexistent economy and the absence of political institutions also means that there aren't any entrenched interests that will set themselves against change, as they have done in Egypt. There aren't even any well-organized Islamists, as there are in Tunisia.
On top of all of that, Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, and (depending on who is counting) some $250 billion in foreign currency reserves. Much of the money Qaddafi never spent on his people is now sitting in the bank. In fact, I can't think of another group of revolutionaries, at any time in history, that found itself in quite such a fortunate situation. Usually, revolutions are born out of national bankruptcy. The first task of the new regime is to fill the state's coffers. The second task is to tear down the institutions of the old regime. Libya's task—how to spend its money wisely, and how to build new institutions from scratch—is both easier than anyone else's and harder. And no, I'm not going to predict what will happen next.


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Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood Belt Out 'Remind Me' at 2011 CMA Awards
The two hosts of the 2011 CMA Awards (and two of country music's biggest stars), Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood, took to the stage at the Bridgestone Arena during Wednesday night's show for a performance of their No. 1 hit duet, 'Remind Me.'
The collaboration was the first time the two superstars have shared the stage to perform the song live on television since its release earlier this year. As Paisley sang the opening verse of the song, Underwood stood behind the guitar playing star, swaying to the music leading up to her entrance on the tune's next verse.
The powerhouse singer and three-time CMA Female Vocalist of the Year winner took the song and the performance to the next level with her astounding range that proved to America why she is one of the best in the business.
Underwood belted out the hard-to-hit notes, nailing them all, as Paisley shredded away on his guitar and the stage lights swirled around them. The dynamic performance brought the room of stars and fans all to their feet in amazement of yet another memorable moment at the annual awards show.
Watch Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood Perform 'Remind Me' at the 2011 CMA Awards


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Baked beans made a tasty, easy meal perhaps most commonly prepared on Saturday, baking day, using the residual heat of the wall oven after a morning of bread baking. Long slow cooking of the beans is essential for good flavor. First soaked overnight, and then combined with molasses, dry mustard, onion, and salt pork the baked beans would provide the family with a Saturday night treat, warm from the oven.
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Mark Mejia's shop is a museum for the mind, a castle for the cabeza. It honors, celebrates, and in many cases improves upon the human head.
It is at once a resting place for Hollywood's hottest head gear, and a retail establishment for the fashion-forward celebrity or the fashion-conscious fan who just wants to know, "How can I get a hat like that?"
The answer usually resides with Mejia, Hollywood's master hat-maker who can easily replicate that bowler on Bob Dylan because he made it in the first place.
Baron Hats on Burbank Boulevard was established more than 60 years ago by Eddie Baron, a costumer who grew a side business into a full-time operation for supplying silver-screen cowboys and gangsters with their signature looks.
Mejia, Baron's apprentice, took over the shop in 1995. He's still stretching, weaving and shaping hats of all shapes, sizes and skins as Eddie Baron did for the likes of the original Lone Ranger, Clayton Moore. The fates have brought that relationship full-circle — when Armie Hammer dons the famous black mask next year, it will again rest underneath a Baron Stetson.
With so much custom work to be done, Mejia has to build many of his tools himself. He maintains all his own wood forms that shape his hats, and keeps his vintage Singer sewing machines spinning. He is an artist, a woodworker, a weaver, a tanner, a machinist.
"To keep this place going I have to wear many hats," Mejia said.
I caught up with him in a rare moment when he could sit still. The day of a hatter in L.A. involves moving from location to location delivering costumes to movie sets, commercial shoots, big people, little people, tiny marionette people (think Puppetmaster movies)…even a certain Taco Bell dog wore a Baron hat.
"It is strange…it's weird to be meeting people I watched on TV growing up," he said.
When he brings the stars to the store, Mejia fits them with a device that looks as if it will suck one's brain straight through the skull. The "conformature" was built in the 1890s, and consists of dozens of individual pieces that conform to a head shape. From this model, Baron Hats has created masterpieces for John Wayne, Jim Carrey, Harrison Ford and so on.
The macabre-looking device gives Mejia an exact shape of the actor's head, so when Jaime Foxx dons his western hat in "Django Unchained," it fits like a glove. Er, hat.
And in that hat is love. It is many hours of hand-molding, pressing, clamping and stretching over wood blocks, and it is an artistry often underappreciated and unnoticed by the general public.
But then the actor or local detective or Burbank neighbor sees him or herself in the mirror for the first time. In those moments Mejia stands back and smiles, an artist of style plying his trade on an outward expression of his client's ID.
There are those who come to him and say "I can't wear hats." There are those like me who have a hard time finding hats that fit.
There is function to the Baron Hat, but there is an intangible thing too, a missing piece to a wardrobe puzzle, something to elevate one's self-respect. Mejia tries to solve both at once, whether it's the right style, the right color, or that perfect little feather flourish that completes the classic timeless flow of the fedora.
"I could have never just opened a hat store," Mejia said. "But because we do so many other things…All of these things keep me reaching out to do Not the Normal."
BRYAN MAHONEY is a recent transplant from the East Coast. When he isn't seeking hats to fit his noggin, he can be reached at email@example.com and on Twitter: @818NewGuy.


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Red Leader R5-K6, Rebel Ground Crew, Rebel TransportWoot!
Hasbro is no doubt handing out discs with the powerpoint presentation. Thank Derryl Depriest for that, since he apparently wants good images of the presentation out there, and not bad photos of a slideshow.The session probably only just wrapped up, and the reporters from the various sites are probably trying to upload them right now. They'll probably be online within an hour. Maybe less.
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Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering
On-line version ISSN 2309-8775
Print version ISSN 1021-2019
J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. vol.54 n.1 Midrand Apr. 2012
The creation and application of a national freight flow model for South Africa
J H Havenga; W J Pienaar
South Africa suffered from a historical lack of freight-flow information that was detrimental to infrastructure planning, optimal network development and market structuring. This paper proposes a methodology that can fill this gap, be repeated annually and is, by its nature, not prone to the errors of market surveys. The methodology develops a comprehensive description of South Africa's surface freight flow market space based on the definition of four definitive freight flow market segments. The results from the annual South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) traffic counts are allocated to these segments to develop national road freight flows. For rail freight flows, the rail database is reclassified on a station-to-station (i.e. origin-destination) basis to match the freight flow market segments developed. Consequently, modal flows, market share and total flows for all freight flow market segments and the geographical groupings with the segments can be analysed and reported each year. The results confirm the deteriorating role of South Africa's rail system amidst growing freight demand, as well as the concomitant over-cropping of the road network, and therefore enable the development of specific national freight transport policy recommendations.
Key words: freight flow modelling, freight market share, South Africa
Accurate market information about freight flow was not historically available in South Africa, which compromised planning for optimal network development (Conradie 2007). Historically, freight transport in South Africa was railroad-driven and formal statistics were available for this sector. Following transport liberalisation and eventual deregulation, rail freight market share declined and flow statistics became increasingly elusive.
The only historical studies that attempted to measure freight flows - the studies of Verburgh (1958 and 1968), Smith (1973), Hamilton (1983 and 1986) and Pretorius (1991) - had limited success, and no permanent data set of freight flows (including modal market share and size) by mode was ever established. Furthermore, their work was not repeatable given the substantial effort required to carry out the research according to the survey methodology. Even the work of Statistics South Africa was discontinued in 2003 owing to issues with validity. This paper proposes a new approach based on a different methodology that can be repeated annually, and is less subject to human error and the 'lie' factor encountered in the survey method.
The objectives of the proposed national freight flow model (NFFM) are firstly to provide the first annually repeatable observations on modal market share and freight flows in South Africa for use in infrastructure policy decisions and planning, and secondly to provide lead and lag indicators of the performance of the freight transport network.
Despite the lack of detailed information the challenges experienced in the surface freight flow market space have been well documented by government, researchers and the media (DoT 1998 and 2005; CSIR, Imperial Logistics & University of Stellenbosch 2010; Van Eeden & Havenga 2010). The challenges caused by the modal imbalance (between road and rail) are not sustainable, but the development of more optimum solutions requires the availability of appropriate market intelligence. In the case of South Africa where, in the collective consciousness, rail has mostly been relegated to a provider of bulk transport services, this market intelligence includes a renewed understanding of the drivers of rail sustainability. This is expounded in the next section.
In normal rail economics about 75% of costs would be fixed over the short term and 50% over the medium term. During deregulation traffic will shift from rail to road (especially time- and value-sensitive cargo), with a concomitant loss of income. but only a partial reduction in costs. This shift will be accelerated and pronounced in the absence of intermodal solutions. The remaining fixed costs would have to be cross-subsidised from 'rail-captured' freight in the short and medium term. In the absence of cross-subsidisation the remaining traffic would have to shoulder a significant tariff increase, which would result in more traffic shifting to road.
This sequence of events did take place in South Africa and the following hybrid, unsystematic strategy was followed to alleviate the situation:
- Cross-subsidisation did occur to some extent between rail's export lines and general freight, making South Africa's 'captured' rail traffic slightly less competitive. This was partly offset by state-of-the-art world-class engineering, especially on the export lines.
- Relative tariff growth on some higher-value, time-sensitive freight did occur at faster than PPI growth rates, but this exacerbated the problem as more traffic left the railway.
- The loss of income, amidst high fixed costs, resulted in declining investment and expenditure on maintenance, inducing further freight losses and a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
Globally, this problem usually has three possible outcomes:
- Rail decline on shorter haul is allowed to continue and the railways concentrate on bulk heavy haul over long distances (the American model).
- Investment is made in intermodal solutions to get the best of both possible worlds (part of the European and American models).
- Re-regulation (part of the European model).
Congestion and social factors in South Africa necessitate the adoption of the European model. South African railway management in the mid-1990s, however, planned for the American option, even though this would have been impossible to implement due to inter alia potential job losses and strain on road infrastructure. The impact of deregulation was therefore compounded by poor strategy and the fact that assets were allowed to deteriorate even further to the brink of collapse. No investment in intermodal solutions occurred, and these problems were exacerbated by an absence of guidance from the policy makers, the failure to develop a revised national transport policy following the De Villiers deregulation report, and a lack of implementation of Moving South Africa initiatives.
One of the major causes of this situation was a poor understanding of the freight flow market segments, the real trends in transport volumes for these segments and the limited or erroneous assumptions that followed this shortage of information. The belief was that rail decline was 'normal' (erroneous: the decline should not have been so pronounced for corridors and especially high-density, long-haul corridors); that it was caused by poor service (erroneous: poor service was not the only cause of decline, as the events described above highlight); and that it was not rapid (erroneous: this was masked by the rise of 'rail-captured' export machines and the concomitant absence of a network view).
The drivers of rail sustainability are best described by comparing or offsetting the positive contribution of a railway to an economy, together with its disadvantages. A railway will, under the right circumstances, save an economy money and provide systemic access for freight and passenger movements and environmentally sustainable transport solutions. These advantages should be offset or compared to rail's major disadvantage, i.e. that it provides only one degree of freedom of movement. The only way in which the advantages of rail can be monetised in the face of its disadvantage is by its not competing with other modes directly, but by exploiting the intrinsic technologies of rail, i.e. its bearing, guiding and coupling technologies compared to the capacity that it can leverage.
Bearing indicates the weight of axle load that can be maintained and, therefore, volumes. Guiding indicates the wheel on track differentials and, therefore, the speed of movement. Coupling refers to long trains with massive volumes. Combined, these technologies provide high-volume, longdistance solutions (Van der Meulen 2007).
Figure 1 depicts two drivers of these intrinsic rail technologies - the speed of guiding and the axle load of bearing.
The four areas of competitiveness in this depiction of drivers indicate that:
■ position A is suitable for heavy-haul traffic
■ position B is suitable for heavy intermodal traffic
■ position C is suitable for fast, intercity, high-value traffic or passengers, and
■ position D is suitable for general freight solutions in a regulated environment.
Van der Meulen (2007) maintains that all railways in the D group (where South Africa's rail system is located) will gradually become redundant and that the problem can only be solved at the state level, where it was created (i.e. by redesign).
South Africa's rail system was designed without A, B and C in mind; it was highly regulated for a long time (and was able, therefore, to survive for a long time), but was destined to fail with deregulation. This failure is, therefore, a combination of the incorrect application of rail economics caused by de-densification of loads (as a result of deregulation), which in turn was caused by the absence of intermodal solutions and rail network design errors. All of these errors could have been avoided by macroeconomic research on actual freight transport demand, coupled with design options to meet that demand in a sustainable package of solutions and design.
Macroeconomic research of this kind requires time-series information, and to understand this it is necessary to see the detailed picture that underlies the freight flow market segments and the trend in traffic movement across the segments. The methodology to develop this research is explained in the next section.
The NFFM focuses on defining surface freight transport (i.e. road and rail) based on the two definitive measures of flows, namely tons and ton-kilometres. Due to the nature of the input information for road data (described in the section on road freight flows), the model produces aggregate tonnages as well as corridor flow estimates, but not at the level of detailed origin-destination flows. Certain trucks that were counted may have been traversing more than one of the three freight flow market segments, i.e. corridor, rural or metropolitan, and even more than one geographical grouping within the freight flow market segments without the specific distinctions being determinable1. This is technically correct, especially where the data and research are used for planning purposes, since this freight impacts on (the infrastructure of) more than one segment. The specifics of this observation should, however, always be borne in mind and, when the model application is repeated, the same set of assumptions should be applied.
The impact of cross-border traffic on South Africa's network is included, due to the presence of counting stations on all the routes to and from the border posts. It is, however, not possible to isolate the actual cross-border traffic for impact analysis on border posts and neighbouring countries. This is being addressed through engineering access to border post information from the Treasury, as well as initiatives to conduct input-output modelling for neighbouring countries.
The model as presented in this paper is a descriptive model fitted on historic data. This established base makes correlation analysis with GDP and other macroeco-nomic variables possible, which renders the model useful for forecasting in future. Subsequent to the development of the NFFM, a detailed origin-destination model was, however, developed for South Africa, based on the input-output model, with a 30-year forecast (Havenga, Simpson & Fourie 2011). The relative ease of updating of the NFFM (compared to the onerous input-output model) allows the two models to act as invaluable mutual validation tools, and the validity of both models have been established and is being tracked over time (CSIR, Imperial Logistics & University of Stellenbosch 2010).
Definition of freight flow market segments
The first step is to develop a definitive definition of the surface freight transport driven by appropriate freight flow market segments. Given that the modelling objective was to understand freight flows to facilitate infrastructure planning, segment definition was driven by a geographical approach and an iterative process was followed - the segments were defined at the outset to facilitate data classification, but once the data had been analysed, outliers were interrogated to ensure that the market description was appropriate. This resulted in the following overarching segments: corridor, metropolitan, rural and rail export machines. The latter are South Africa's world-class, dedicated, bulk mining export flows - a captive market for rail and therefore showed separately. The salient characteristics of each freight market segment are compared in Table 1.
Subsequently, the results from the South African National Roads Agency Ltd's (SANRAL) Traffic Counting Yearbooks, compiled by Mikros Traffic Monitoring (2005 and 2006), as well as actual rail freight flow data obtained from Transnet Freight Rail, are classified according to these segments to develop total freight traffic flows in South Africa.
Rail freight flows
The rail freight data obtained by previous researchers was one-dimensional, i.e. it provided only volumes shipped and not rail traffic flows between origins and destinations. Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) made detailed origin-destination rail flows available, which are adequate for use in this model, as TFR is virtually the only rail freight operator in South Africa. Rail freight flows therefore do not have to be modelled, but still have to be allocated to the freight transport market segments to allow market share comparisons between road and rail. Transnet Freight Rail has subsequently added this classification system to its core database, which enables, and fast-tracks, the use of rail's historical data and the annual repeatability of the model.
Road freight flows
Comprehensive traffic observations started in South Africa in 1984 with a pilot study on the 600 km N3 route between Johannesburg and Durban. As a result of the success of this study the National Transport Commission (now SANRAL) decided in June 1985 to expand the Traffic Counting Network to traffic counting stations (Mikros 2006, p iv). SANRAL now repeats this work annually and a reasonable degree of stability in the work process has been achieved since the 1990s. The main objective of SANRAL's efforts is not to develop freight flows, but to understand congestion points and enable planning in terms of all vehicular road usage in South Africa (of which heavy vehicles are only a subset). No attempt has ever been made to use the information for freight flow estimation purposes, and a reasonable amount of modelling of the available data is therefore necessary.
The SANRAL Traffic Counting Yearbook is a compendium of traffic information obtained at traffic counting stations on primary roads, which highlights the latest available traffic characteristics. Both permanent and secondary stations are utilised. A permanent station makes continuous traffic observations; a secondary station is one where traffic observations are made on a sampling basis for at least 168 consecutive hours per annum. The 2006 SANRAL Traffic Counting Yearbook contains information on 398 permanent stations and 430 secondary stations. However, the position and number of the secondary stations change from year to year - an issue that the modelling process should consider. The stations are placed on selected links of the national and primary road network and yield information such as average daily traffic and average daily truck traffic (Mikros 2006, pp i-ii). The data from these counting stations were manually captured in an Excel database, because SANRAL does not provide computerised data sets. It is a secondary objective of this work to negotiate the electronic provision of data from SANRAL in order to facilitate the repetition of this work by limiting the possibility of human error and by fast-tracking the data capture.
In addition to being recorded at permanent and secondary stations, the counting station data is automated and, therefore, far less prone to human error. The data is also available annually, which means that a validated model is easily repeatable.
Calculation of road tonnages
The number of permanent counting stations per annum are shown in Table 2.
The following modelling approach is used to estimate road freight flows from traffic counts:
■ SANRAL allocates counting stations to specific routes across the country, e.g. N1, R30, etc in a geographical order. For example, the N1 stations start in Cape Town and end in Beitbridge.
■ The average daily truck traffic (ADTT) (i.e. the number of trucks) and the percentage split of these trucks between short, medium and long trucks (SMLT) are captured at each counting station per route from SANRAL's data. The SANRAL counting methodology enables the counting monitors at the stations to distinguish between trucks and passenger vehicles by the length of the vehicle2. The trucks can then be categorised further in terms of axles. This provides a good approximation of vehicle types.
■ ADTT is the total number of trucks observed in each direction during the actual period monitored, divided by the total number of hours monitored, multiplied by 24.
■ SMLT percentage split means the percentage of trucks in each direction which fall into each of the following categories:
- A short truck is typically a rigid-chassis, two-axle vehicle designed for the transport of goods, or a bus with at least one of its axles bearing four wheels3.
- A medium truck is typically a truck-tractor, plus semi-trailer combination.
- A long truck is typically a combination of a truck-tractor plus a semi-trailer and a full trailer.
■ The indicated split is established from the combination of measurements of vehicle length and chassis height, as follows:
- A vehicle shorter than 4.6 m is always regarded as a light vehicle, not a truck.
- A vehicle between 4.6 m and 11 m long is classified as a short truck if the counting signal indicating the chassis height is 'high'. (If the signal indicates a 'medium' or 'low' chassis height, then the vehicle is considered to be a long, light vehicle, e.g. a car towing a caravan.)
- A vehicle between 11 m and 16.8 m is classified as a medium truck, irrespective of the chassis height.
- A vehicle longer than 16.8 m is classified as a long truck, irrespective of the chassis height (Mikros 2005, p 10).
■ The number of trucks had to be translated into the actual weight of the freight. For this purpose two figures were calculated - the gross weight (i.e. truck + freight) and the truck tare (i.e. truck weight only). The difference between the two figures is the weight of the freight itself.
■ The average total ton per SMLT was calculated from Road Freight Association (RFA) data. The total weight per SMLT was calculated by multiplying the truck mass by the number of trucks. The tare for SMLT was then calculated based on the average tare per vehicle type as published by the RFA (see Table 3).
■ For the national routes, counting stations were depicted graphically to determine the split between metropolitan peaks, rural traffic and long-distance (corridor) traffic.
■ The assumption is that corridor traffic is indicated when a levelling of traffic counts occurs, i.e. when metropolitan peaks taper off and traffic counts remain consistent over a number of consecutive counting stations, while other stations are either metropolitan or rural, depending on their count size and location:
■ Corridor traffic: the stations where levelling occurred were allocated to national routes. The average of the annual weight for all the counting stations per corridor was calculated to reflect the tonnage per corridor.
■ Metropolitan traffic: the key metropolitan areas were identified (through sharp peaks in traffic counts). Different routes lead into these metropolitan areas. For each route the annual average was calculated. The annual totals per route were aggregated to obtain the metropolitan traffic total.
■ The remaining stations were allocated to rural traffic. In the same way as metropolitan traffic (where a group of different routes combine to form a metropolitan freight market segment), each province has a number of rural routes that also combine to form a rural freight market segment. For each route, the annual average was calculated. The annual totals per route were aggregated to obtain the rural traffic total.
■ Extreme outliers were discussed with SANRAL who indicated problems at these counting stations - these outliers were therefore excluded from the analysis (i.e. counting stations which gave figures that were significantly higher or lower than other stations on the same route, and often significantly different from a series of adjacent stations, also clearly visible in the graphs).
For illustrative purposes, Figures 2 and 3 graphically depict the Cape Town-Johannesburg and Durban-Johannesburg routes for 2006. (All the SANRAL routes are depicted in this fashion to enable allocation of counting stations).
Geographical aggregation of corridors, metropolitan and rural areas
The defined freight market sub-segments were grouped geographically to facilitate analysis, reporting and the development of recommendations. The two main corridors, i.e. Gauteng-Durban and Gauteng-Cape Town, deemed to carry the heaviest traffic, were however kept separate. The corridor grouping is shown in Table 4, while the metropolitan and rural groupings are shown in Table 5.
National freight flows
The results from the NFFM were tabulated to provide modal market share per corridor, rural area and metropolitan area in South Africa. The methodology was applied to counting data from counting stations and actual Transnet Freight Rail data for 1993, 1997, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.
This application would, therefore, indicate (i) whether a comparable link with the previous sporadic surveys of Verburgh, Smith, Hamilton and Pretorius, which ended in 1990, could be established; (ii) whether the data from the late 1990s (obtained using this model) up to 2006 has a reasonable correlation with GDP; and (iii) whether the 2003 to 2006 data (when the model was applied annually) seems stable and useful enough to serve as the basis for an annual model. The results from the modelling exercise are reported in the next section.
Total surface freight transport flows
Total freight flows in South Africa amounted to 1 493 million tons in 2006. The trends for road and rail between 1993 and 2006 are depicted in Figure 4.
The long-term trend in surface freight transport can be scrutinised by plotting the results from the NFFM with those of historical surveys, as depicted in Figure 5.
Irrespective of the flaws of previous surveys, the definite downward trend in rail market share is clear. Unfortunately, because of the flaws of previous surveys and the absence of flow data, the specifics of this decline have never really been understood. Growth rates for constant GDP at 2000 prices, physical production in the economy and tons transported can now be compared between the NFFM and the previous studies analysed. This is shown in Table 6.
The survey methods followed by Verburgh, Hamilton, Smith and Pretorius are essentially the same and could, therefore, serve as a good base for comparison.
The Verburgh-Smith-Hamilton time series performs satisfactorily in this comparison, as the growth in tons transported correlates well with the growth in GDP. The faster growth in the physical volume of production in the economy (compared to GDP and transport growth), however, could not be explained by the commissioning of South Africa's two export machines in the 1970s, namely the Richards Bay coal line and the Sishen to Saldanha iron ore line, because in both these cases the results should also have translated into higher transport volumes. It is also hypothesised that more double handling of goods in a more mature economy (caused by specialisation) should occur, which means that tons transported should probably grow somewhat faster than the physical volume of production in the economy.
The Pretorius time series did not do well in these comparisons. Constant GDP growth in South Africa was slow in the years just before the legitimisation of the ANC and the release of Nelson Mandela, and the physical volume of production slowed to a compound annual growth rate of just 0.61%, but a negative correlation of more than 3% of tons transported is highly unlikely.
The NFFM correlation performs well in all comparisons. Constant GDP grows faster than the physical volume of production as the economy matures and the tertiary sector expands. The expected increase in double handling results in a faster transport growth rate than that of physical production, but is more in line with GDP growth.
A more precise measure of correlation would be to measure the correlation coefficient for the various data sets. For this calculation, for tons transported, the four annual data points from Verburgh, Smith and Hamilton's two surveys were used, the six data points from Pretorius's surveys between 1985 and 1990, and four data points from the NFFM between 2003 and 2006. This was correlated with GDP and physical production for the same time periods. The calculation is shown in Table 7. The results from the NFFM consistently perform significantly better than those of previous surveys.
The data has been assessed at workshops by peers at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Transnet, the Department of Trade and Industry, the Department of Agriculture and Transnet Freight Rail. Current indications are that the high correlation will continue in future applications of the model. As the work continues, the academic soundness of the research should be continually tested and reported on to determine if the positive correlation is valid for longer time series.
Freight flow market segments and the current distribution of freight
In South Africa there are 329 billion ton-kilometres of freight movement per annum (National Freight Flow Model estimates), compared to approximately 15 000 billion ton-kilometres worldwide (Rodrigue 2007). South Africa has just less than 1% of the world's population, produces less than 0.4% of the world's GDP, and yet it requires more than 2% of global freight transport in terms of ton-kilometres. Therefore, South Africa's transport demand is excessive in the light of these indicators.
This situation has arisen historically from the country's economic development, which has resulted in:
■ centres of production and population density far from the coastal areas
■ a relatively open mineral-export economy, and
■ a beneficiated product- and energy-import economy.
These factors consequently necessitate long export and import corridors.
This situation places, ipso facto, a massive burden on South Africa's transport infrastructure, and, because of the country's poor productivity, a specific need for excessively cheap transport. The South African economy is still relatively primary, especially when compared to developed economies, and a better understanding of the specifics of the freight flow market segments is required in order to formulate an appropriate freight transport strategy.
The 329 billion ton-kilometres of freight is divided into the four freight flow market segments as depicted in Figure 6.
The tonnage growth across the various freight flow market segments is depicted in Figure 7.
The stagnation in rail is clear. All growth over dense corridors occurred within the road mode, which expanded by more than 70% over 13 years. This growth would be understandable if the corridors in question were short or the density per corridor low. In these instances the economy will have to absorb this growth in the road mode. Cheaper options are, however, available in intermodality, if the density per corridor can be calculated as sufficiently high. In South Africa's case, as observed by the national freight flow model, the spatial efficiency objective of the corridor freight market segment is not achieved. If this density is sufficient to entertain an intermodal solution, future investment should be considered in such solutions. This could release funds for the development of the secondary economy in rural areas, which is a major objective of the country at the moment.
Rural road traffic has grown more slowly than corridor traffic (less than 60% growth), which supports the hypothesis that South Africa is not succeeding in the stimulation of rural economies as desired. A major cause of this failure is declining road infrastructure, the impact of which can now be measured for the first time. Metropolitan growth is also slower than corridor growth.
The detailed results per freight market segment will point towards specific issues and possible solutions. These results are discussed in the following sections.
Trends in movement over the various corridors
The various corridors have performed differently in terms of growth over the past 13 years. The growth is depicted in Figure 8.
Growth on the densest road freight corridor - the route between Gauteng and Durban - was relatively slow (26%), but this is also the corridor that is probably the most overstretched in the country because of current density. Alternative routes (even as far afield as the Energy-Demoina route, which is the alternative, much longer route between Gauteng and Durban over Piet Retief) are often used because of, inter alia, lack of policing, lower density and the presence of fewer toll roads. From this high base, if the road/rail market-share position should continue, major long-haul congestion problems will arise in the future.
The eastern corridors describe the roads to Witbank, Nelspruit and Maputo from Gauteng. There has been a major initiative over the past few years to develop this corridor, but freight has grown by only 46% over the time period (the second lowest - and slower than economic growth). Furthermore, the expected growth in rail traffic has not yet been realised.
The Gauteng to Cape Town corridor achieved 135% growth over the time period - almost all on road. This is perhaps the greatest error in South Africa's infrastructure planning framework, as this is also the longest corridor and should, by any standard, be more rail-bound than the rest.
Trends in movement in the various metropolitan areas
Almost all known metropolitan areas (or areas usually classified as metropolitan) experienced growth of between 50 and 60% over the period, as depicted in Figure 9.
This pattern of rail freight decline is normal for the shorter distances involved and may seem acceptable to planners, but it should be remembered that dense metropolitan areas are growing from an already high base (given the current available infrastructure that is installed and planned). In addition, 86% of all metropolitan freight in South Africa moves within three metropolitan areas, and 41% of all freight shipped in South Africa originates and terminates within one of these same three metropolitan areas. In very specific cases rail solutions are possible to alleviate pressure on metropolitan infrastructure. An example includes the bale-by-rail solution that was developed for Vissershok in Cape Town, whereby a ring-fenced fleet delivers baled waste over defined and limited origin-destination pairs to a landfill site outside Cape Town.
Trends in movement in the various rural areas
The biggest rural growth was experienced in KwaZulu-Natal, where rural freight movements grew three times faster than in the Eastern Cape, as indicated in Figure 10.
Government's failure to deliver on objectives for the rural Eastern Cape region is clearly evident.
Developing transport performance measures
The application of the NFFM as lead indicator has now been adequately defined, given the specific planning information for the freight flow market segments that was generated. Possibilities also exist to use the data to develop lag indicators that can measure the performance of the economy in terms of transport consumed. GDP data, physical production data and sectoral GDP are known and a calculation is, therefore, possible (see Figure 11).
The time frame over which the performance of the NFFM is measured is short (with only five data points), and the previous measurements erratic and unreliable. The increasingly poor performance of the economy in terms of transport productivity is, however, clearly visible where the economy generated less than R800 for each ton transported in 2005. This measure over time could inform the spatial performance of the economy (about which only hypotheses have existed up to now) and contribute towards a better understanding of the spatial dilemma. As the tertiary sector in a mature economy grows, the measure should actually improve and, furthermore, improve with increased productivity in transport. This is, however, not the case in South Africa.
The measure can be extended to indicate measures for the transportable economy (see Figure 12). This measure also indicates a declining trend and the poor performance of spatial reorganisation, spatial requirements and transport productivity in South Africa.
This was the first successful attempt to develop annually repeatable flow data for South Africa, and the results provide the most complete picture of surface freight flows yet in the country, including modal market share. The data was compared with other economic data and with the Verburgh, Smith, Hamilton and Pretorius studies and performed well on all accounts.
The results have also been applied to initiate the process of generating economic performance data for transport. The lead indicators (namely, modal market share in total and correlation of freight transport with GDP per freight market segment), which could inform transport and logistics infrastructure planning, and the lag indicators (namely, performance of GDP and transportable GDP per ton), which measure past performance of transport in the economy, have now been defined.
The results indicate that long-distance corridor growth is being captured by road transport. The spatial efficiency objective of the corridor freight market segment is therefore not being achieved and the development of intermodal solutions should be paramount. This could release funds for the development of transport infrastructure in rural areas to support the development of the second economy. In addition, more sustainable rail solutions for specific ring-fenced metropolitan flows should be investigated.
The NFFM also provides a basis for forecasting. The existence of a volumetric measurement means that associated logistics costs can be developed, which will inform the affordability of transport infrastructure, as well as determine the degree to which economic infrastructure supports or dampens South Africa's global competitiveness. South Africa is also in the process of developing frameworks for freight transport regulation, and volumetric data on freight flows will be invaluable in the process of establishing a freight regulation framework.
1 This means, for example, that if a specific load originated in Caledon in the Western Cape and was sent to Johannesburg, it will be observed by the model as a rural Western Cape load and a load that used the Cape Town to Gauteng corridor. In another example, if a load originated in Durban and was sent to Beitbridge, it will be observed as using both the Durban to Gauteng and Gauteng to Beitbridge corridors.
2 The current counting technology does not allow distinguishing between light delivery vehicles (colloquially 'vans' or 'bakkies') and passenger vehicles. The model results therefore exclude freight transport that is conducted in vehicles less than small truck size.
3 The current counting technology only allows the distinguishing of bus counts at toll stations, not at other counting points. Bus counts at toll stations account for approximately 1% of traffic counts, and are aggregated with heavy vehicle counts in the SANRAL data. Currently no adjustment to the NFFM is made for this, as bus counts on other routes are probably significantly less than 1%.
4 Hamilton's flawed survey of 1981 excluded and Pretorius's data normalised with actual rail data.
5 Hamilton's flawed 1981 survey excluded.
Conradie, E 2007. Interview with transport historian conducted by candidate. Johannesburg: South African Railway Museum. [ Links ]
CSIR, Imperial Logistics & University of Stellenbosch 2010. 7th Annual state of logistics survey - Value creation towards global competitiveness and sustainability. Available at: http://www.csir.co.za/sol/ [Accessed 16 May 2011]. [ Links ]
DoT (National Department of Transport, South Africa) 1998. Moving South Africa: A transport strategy for 2020. Pretoria: Department of Transport. [ Links ]
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Mikros Traffic Monitoring (Pty) Ltd 2005. SANRAL traffic counting yearbook 2004. Pretoria: South African National Roads Agency Limited. [ Links ]
Mikros Traffic Monitoring (Pty) Ltd 2006. SANRAL traffic counting yearbook 2005. Pretoria: South African National Roads Agency Limited. [ Links ]
Pretorius, W P 1991. Freight Transport Data Bank Report, 2nd edition. Johannesburg: Research Unit for Transport Economic and Physical Distribution Studies, Rand Afrikaans University. [ Links ]
Rodrigue, J 2007. The geography of transport systems, Chapter 3: Transportation modes. Hempstead, New York: Department of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. [ Links ]
Smith, W J J 1973. A quantitative study of road hauliers and ancillary road transport users in the Republic of South Africa. PhD thesis, Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch. [ Links ]
Van der Meulen, D 2007. Leveraging the competitive strengths of railways in South Africa. Proceedings, Transport Infrastructure and Development Conference, 30-31 May 2007, Sandton. [ Links ]
Van Eeden, J & Havenga, J H 2010. Identification of key target markets for intermodal freight transport solutions in South Africa. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, November: 255-267. [ Links ]
Verburgh, C 1958. Road transport of goods in South Africa. Bureau for Economic Research, Faculty of Commerce, Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch. [ Links ]
Verburgh, C 1968. The relationship between the transport of goods by rail and economic development in South Africa. Transport Research Centre, Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch. [ Links ]
Contact details:
Director: Centre for Supply Chain Management
Department of Logistics
University of Stellenbosch
Private Bag X1
Matieland Stellenbosch 7602 South Africa
E: firstname.lastname@example.com
Contact details:
Department of Logistics University of Stellenbosch
Private Bag X1
Matieland Stellenbosch 7602 South Africa
E: email@example.com
DR JAN HAVENGA's core expertise is the development of a sustainable national strategic vision for South Africa's freight logistics industry, in close collaboration with the major private and public freight logistics stakeholders. The work is built on a world-class market intelligence system defining South Africa's current and future freight flow market space and related logistics costs, developed under his leadership. His research is published in peer-reviewed papers and delivered at local and international peer-reviewed conferences. He has consulted to more than 100 companies in many different countries, including South Africa, Mozambique, Germany, the UK and the USA. He is passionate about knowledge sharing and is also a full-time under- and post-graduate lecturer in the Department of Logistics at the University of Stellenbosch.
PROF WESSEL PIENAAR has obtained the following advanced qualifications: MEcon (Transport Economics, University of Stellenbosch); MS (Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley); DComm (Transport Economics, University of South Africa); and PhD (Eng) (Civil Engineering, University of Stellenbosch). In 2000 and 2011 he received the Rector's Award for Outstanding Research at the University of Stellenbosch. He is rated as an established researcher by the National Research Foundation, and is a board member and vice-chairman of the "Suid-Afrikaanse Akademie vir Wetenskap en Kuns". He is chief editor and main author of the internationally used textbook Business Logistn Management: A Supply Chain Perspective (Oxford University Press). His work has been translated and published in German, French and Russian by international research institutions.


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This issue contains the Top 100 clubs list, an interesting look at who is moving up in the industry and who may be moving down.
This was the first year we included franchisors on the list — although they were only able to offer the revenue from corporate-owned clubs and franchising/licensing fees paid to them by their franchisees/licensees. This meant the inclusion of several new companies on the list, including Anytime Fitness, Powerhouse Gyms International and Snap Fitness. However, some large franchisors, such as Gold's Gym International and Curves, did not submit their forms.
Club owners of some other club companies that probably deserve to be on the list also chose not to submit their forms this year. We've included a sidebar of those companies within the story. We hope that next year they will change their minds and submit their forms so that the list is as complete and thorough as possible. You can check out the 2008 Top 100 list on page 36.
Best Programs
The Best of the Best awards program deadline has been extended to July 25. If you haven't submitted your club's best programs in this contest, go to http://fitnessbusinesspro.com/images/bobEntryForm08.pdf for the entry form. The cost to enter is $40 per entry.
Winners will be featured in an issue of the magazine and will receive an award at the Club Industry show on Oct. 17 in Chicago. Each winner will receive up to three free registrations to the Club Industry show.