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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 2001
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY OCTOBER, 2001 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) *********************************************************************** OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS --> Atlantic active with devastating Central American hurricane --> Both North Pacific basins also active with one super typhoon --> First Southern Hemisphere cyclone of the 2001-2002 season forms *********************************************************************** ***** Feature of the Month for October ***** AN UNREPORTED SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE -------------------------------------------- Last year on 30 August I received a copy of an e-mail from Roger Edson to Philippe Caroff at the La Reunion TCWC. The message contained a letter sent to Roger by Tony Cristaldi, a forecaster and tropical cyclone enthusiast at the NWS office in Melbourne, Florida. A few days earlier Tony had been downloading some additional images of the by now rather well-known midget cyclone which formed in the Mozambique Channel last June and was at its peak intensity on 21 June when the moon's shadow also crossed the Channel in the first total solar eclipse of the new millennium. Tony indicated that he had pulled off about two days worth of POES passes on the days leading up to 21 June so that he could examine the structure of the cyclone during its formative stages. To quote Tony's e-mail: "I came upon a problem--the system I was looking at was NOT where it should have been. The times and positions didn't match some data that I had already downloaded from the AFWIN and NRL Monterrey sites. Instead, the cyclone remained SOUTH of the Channel and NEVER got all that close to Mozambique. After scratching my head for a few minutes, I took a second look at one of the images in the HRPT reader. Lo and behold! I had typed in a FOUR instead of a SIX for the month when I pulled the data from SAA! I was looking at data from APRIL 19-21!!" Tony further relates that upon discovering there was a midget cyclone on the exact same days two months earlier, he dug up my global summary for April, 2001, to read about it. But nothing was there, nor in the monthly cyclone tracks file, since I knew nothing about the cyclone's existence. Philippe's reply to Roger at least cleared up the mystery surrounding the cyclone, i.e., why no warnings were issued. Philippe indicates that he was certainly aware of the storm, but no warnings were issued because it formed outside of La Reunion's area of warning responsibility, the boundary being latitude 30 south. Reunion did issue warnings on Tropical Cyclone Dera in March, 2001, until it began extratropical transition near 35S, but this was considered sort of "extra work". Philippe related that personally he would like to see their AOR extended farther south, perhaps to 40S, and planned to bring this matter up at an upcoming regional meeting. Philippe's letter states that both the April and June cyclones were similar in that both formed in baroclinic environments. The June midget formed from a wave along a cold front which became cut-off and migrated northward, whereas the precursor of the April cyclone exited alone from southeastern Africa. Philippe indicates that he did not check the SSTs in April around 33S to 34S, but thinks it likely they were similar to the SSTs over which the June cyclone formed--around 24-25C. Both systems displayed some very similar cloud patterns when mature, but the April system was much longer-lived, remaining at a significant intensity for about four days, plus displaying some very significant diurnal fluctuations. A few weeks later Tony sent me a CD containing many satellite images of both the April and June cyclones, plus a track for the April system, both tabular and plotted. In the meantime I had informed Dr. Karl Hoarau of Cergy-Pontoise University near Paris about the storm, so Karl set about the task of downloading satellite imagery covering the storm's history and deriving intensity estimates for the cyclone. The track and intensities, based upon Tony's and Karl's inputs, follow the narrative. Karl indicates that his 1-min avg MSW estimates repre- sent values less than the normal Dvorak numbers would yield in order to take into account the fact that the storm was not tropical all of the time, the rapid changes seen in the convection, and the high latitude of the track. The storm formed about 140 nm southeast of Durban, South Africa. At 1200 UTC on 17 April a ship located near 29.2S, 35.0E reported a northerly sustained wind of 20 kts. At the same time Durban (29.9S, 30.8E) recorded a south-southwesterly wind of 15 kts. Convection began to build during the morning of 18 April and a warm, elongated eye-like feature had formed by 1740 UTC. However, convection was not all that deep--east of the "eye" the cloud top temperatures were in the range of -7 to -20 C. On the 17th, while still basically extratropical, the system had moved slowly eastward, dropping a little to the south- east. The center apparently made a small loop early on the 18th before moving a little more quickly south-southeastward for several hours. After around 1700 UTC the storm embarked on a very slow eastward track until early on the 19th. Karl estimates that the cyclone reached its peak intensity of 55-60 kts (1-min avg) around 1700 UTC on the 19th. The Objective Dvorak T-number was 4.2 and the subjective T-number was 4.0. The CDO-feature appeared somewhat eroded but the "eye" was faintly visible. The storm jogged southward early on the 19th before resuming its slow east-southeastward motion several hundred miles south-southwest of southern Madagascar. The convection became ragged and appeared to be northerly sheared early on 20 April but made a comeback later in the day. Around 1200 UTC on 21 April the cyclone presented its most "tropical" appearance so far in its history. (This being Tony's assessment of the system's character). A large eye-feature was evident, open to the south and southeast. The CDO extended well to the south, then southeastward in a reverse comma shape. On the 21st the storm took a jog to the north, then northwest, and later westward, completing a loop which resembles a figure "8" lying on its side. Karl's intensity log, which had decreased the MSW to 40 kts on the evening of the 20th, shows an increase back to 45 kts on the morning of the 21st to reflect this increased organization. (Karl, however, prefers to classify the system as extratropical even though there was an increase in convection.) This increase in convection was temporary. By 22/0000 UTC the cold cloud tops had warmed to the point that the cyclone was devoid of deep convection and was only a low-level swirl. The storm was still moving west-southwestward early on the 22nd, but during the day recurved to the south-southeast and accelerated significantly. Early on the 23rd the system crossed 40S and then underwent an extreme acceleration to the southeast. By 0300 UTC on 24 April the cyclone was near 53.5S, 57.5E and was being absorbed by an extratropical LOW. Convection began to make a comeback around 1200 UTC on the 22nd and by early on the 23rd a ragged, banding-type eye had become visible. Both Tony and Karl agree that at 23/1200 UTC, the cyclone's appearance was the most tropical-looking of its entire life. Satellite imagery at 1126 UTC revealed what appeared to be a small eye (-14.8C) in the center of the CDO feature. Karl's log increases the MSW back to 50 kts at this juncture. However, whether or not the cyclone should be classified as a tropical cyclone is questionable. As Karl points out in his discussion, the storm did present a tropical appearance around 1200 UTC on 23 April, but it was located at a rather high latitude (41S to 44S) and over SSTs of 16-18C. Shortly after this secondary (or actually tertiary) peak in intensity, the storm encountered renewed shear and quickly weakened as it raced southeastward. I would like to extend a very special thanks to Tony Cristaldi, Philippe Caroff, and Karl Hoarau for all the information they provided regarding this interesting storm system. Track of the Unnamed Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone 17 - 24 April, 2001 --------------------------------------------------- Date Time Lat Lon MSW Comments (GMT) 1-min (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 APR 17 0400 32.0 S 33.7 E Extratropical LOW 01 APR 17 1200 31.7 S 33.2 E 01 APR 17 1800 31.3 S 34.3 E 01 APR 17 2230 31.8 S 35.0 E 01 APR 18 0000 31.9 S 35.4 E 25 01 APR 18 0500 31.7 S 35.7 E 25 XT Low/1st Cb burst south of cntr 01 APR 18 1200 33.0 S 36.3 E 30 XT or Hyb/central Cb-partial CDO 01 APR 18 1730 33.3 S 36.5 E 45 Eye-like feature/little more trop. 01 APR 18 2200 33.2 S 36.9 E 45 Well-def eye/like TC embedded in XT 01 APR 19 0000 33.1 S 37.5 E 40 Cb diminishing north side of "eye" 01 APR 19 0500 33.5 S 38.1 E 40 CDO trying to re-organize 01 APR 19 1200 34.0 S 37.9 E 45 CDO better/"eye" barely visible 01 APR 19 1700 34.1 S 38.1 E 60 CBO eroded N thru SE/"eye" faint 01 APR 19 2200 34.2 S 38.4 E 50 "Eye" open SW thru W/less tropical 01 APR 19 2330 34.3 S 38.8 E 50 01 APR 20 0430 34.5 S 39.8 E 45 Central Cb ragged/sheared from NW 01 APR 20 1200 34.6 S 40.7 E 45 CDO better, more central 01 APR 20 1700 34.7 S 41.1 E 40 Cb shearing to SSE of center some 01 APR 20 2300 34.2 S 41.8 E 40 01 APR 21 0400 34.9 S 41.5 E 40 CDO better, disp. to south of LLCC 01 APR 21 1200 34.4 S 40.6 E 45 More tropical-looking/large "eye" 01 APR 21 1630 34.7 S 40.0 E 45 Large "eye" open to south 01 APR 21 2300 35.1 S 38.8 E 30 System now void of deep Cb 01 APR 22 0400 35.2 S 38.5 E 25 Weak Cb east side 01 APR 22 1130 36.3 S 37.8 E 30 Central Cb re-dev. SE of center 01 APR 22 2300 39.2 S 39.2 E 30 Cb ragged, disp. to south of LLCC 01 APR 23 0330 40.2 S 39.6 E 25 Ragged central convection 01 APR 23 0500 41.2 S 40.3 E 30 Banded, ragged eye 01 APR 23 1130 43.7 S 42.8 E 50 Most "tropical" appearance of all, 01 APR 23 1730 46.6 S 46.4 E 40 true eye in center of CDO 01 APR 23 2230 49.0 S 50.3 E 35 Accelerating rapidly SE-ward 01 APR 23 2330 49.9 S 51.2 E 30 Eye has collapsed 01 APR 24 0300 53.5 S 57.7 E 25 Being absorbed by large XT LOW *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for October: 3 tropical storms 2 hurricanes NOTE: Some of the information presented below was obtained from the TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted. Some information was also obtained from the monthly summary for October prepared by the Hurricane Specialists which is available on TPC/NHC's website. Atlantic Tropical Activity for October ---------------------------------------- As will be obvious to most readers of these summaries, I am far behind schedule, just as I was last year following active Atlantic and North Pacific seasons. Happily, the official storm reports prepared by the staff of TPC/NHC for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins have now appeared on NHC's website. So, just as I did last year, I am not going to write much about the October and November cyclones in those basins in order to facilitate getting caught up and back on schedule. While the reports may not contain quite as much detail about certain aspects of the storms as I might have included, there is no need for me to spend time re-creating what others have already accomplished. I shall confine my remarks about the cyclones for the latter two months of the season to pointing out a few interesting features and tidbits that were not mentioned in the NHC reports. The reports are very nicely done and highly informative with several figures and tables, including charts and maps of the official analyzed "best tracks". I will include links to the specific reports below in the write-up for each storm. I highly recommend that all readers go to NHC's website and read the reports. Five tropical cyclones developed during the month and all reached tropical storm intensity. Two of these, Iris and Karen, became hurricanes with Iris reaching Category 4 intensity on the Saffir/ Simpson scale. The last system, Tropical Depression #15, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Michelle right around 0000 UTC on 1 November and will be covered in the November summary. All this activity represents an above-normal October--the average numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes (1950-2000) forming in the month of October are 1.6, 1.1, and 0.3, respectively. Hurricane Iris (TC-11) 4 - 9 October ----------------------- Hurricane Iris was a very small tropical cyclone which intensified rapidly in the western Caribbean Sea into a severe Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale on 8 October. The core of Iris was very small--at one point the eye was only 3 nm in diameter and the radius of hurricane-force winds was only 10-15 nm--very small for a 120-kt hurricane. During the morning of the 8th reconnaissance aircraft found three concentric eyewalls with radii of 3, 9, and 18 nm. The innermost one soon collapsed, resulting in a temporary weakening of Iris, but with two others close in, the hurricane was soon intensifying again. Iris reached an estimated peak intensity of 125 kts just before making landfall in southern Belize. This was supported by a GPS drop which measured surface winds of 127 kts and objective T-numbers of T6.5 to T7.0 (127 to 140 kts) for about three hours. Another GPS drop at 1900 UTC was reporting 132 kts when it failed at 46 m above the surface. Comparing the official "best track" (BT) with the operational track, only minor adjustments were made. The BT starts the depression stage at 04/1200 UTC--six hours before the first advisory was issued--and also upgrades Iris to tropical storm intensity six hours before it was upgraded operationally. A slight amount of confusion resulted when it was announced that if Iris regenerated in the Pacific, the name Iris would be retained, but when an Eastern Pacific storm did develop from Iris' remnants, a new number (15E) and name (Manuel) were applied. I asked James Franklin about this and he clarified the issue: NHC's operational procedures were changed a few years ago to the effect that if a tropical cyclone crossed Central America and warnings were issued continuously, then the original number and name would be retained. However, if the original storm's LLCC dissipated and warnings were dropped, a new number and name would be applied if a cyclone developed subsequently in the Pacific. (The same rules would apply for the much more rarer Pacific-to-Gulf of Mexico crossing.) In the case of Iris, the hurricane's inner core did dissipate over Mexico, although some of the leftover convection from Iris was instrumental in the formation of Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific. Hurricane Iris was very destructive to southern Belize, but since the storm was very small, the path of destruction was correspondingly narrow. The government of Belize has reported a storm damage total of $66.2 million. This figure comes from the official NHC report; a report located by the author on the Relief Web's website indicates that the damage to Belize was around $250 million. (This report, dated 4 January 2002, can be located at http://www.reliefweb.int. Click on the Natural Disasters link, then the Hurricane Iris link.) The eye of Hurricane Iris passed over Independence and Placencia, small towns around 130 km south of Belize City. Eighty-five percent of the banana plantations were damaged, and corn, rice, plantain, mango, and cacao crops were also seriously affected. Shrimp farms were also adversely impacted by Iris. The best estimate of the number of deaths resulting from Hurricane Iris stands at 31. Three persons were killed in the Dominican Republic as the storm brushed that area, but the majority of the fatalities occurred on the boat M/V Wave Dancer, which capsized with 28 persons on board during the height of the storm while anchored at Big Creek. At least 20 persons on board the boat are feared dead--all members of a diving club based in Richmond, Virginia, who were on a diving vacation off the coast of Belize. There was also an unconfirmed report that another boat, The Vendera, had capsized with people on board. Finally, there were reports that eight persons had perished in flash flooding in Guatemala associated with Iris. The official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Iris, prepared by Lixion Avila, can be found at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001iris.html> Tropical Storm Jerry (TC-12) 6 - 8 October ----------------------------- Tropical Storm Jerry was a short-lived, rather poorly-organized tropical cyclone which formed east of the Windward Islands and moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea where it dissipated a couple of days later. Interestingly, the dissipation of Jerry was not anticipated. Most of the model guidance, as well as the NHC advisories, were calling for Jerry to reach hurricane intensity in two or three days. Jerry's center passed just south of Barbados and very near St. Vincent, and gale-force winds were recorded on Martinique; however, there were no reports of damage or casualties associated with this tropical cyclone. The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Jerry, prepared by Richard Pasch and Daniel Brown, can be found at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001jerry.html> Hurricane Karen (TC-13 / STS #1) 10 - 15 October --------------------------------- Hurricane Karen began as a strong extratropical LOW which caused wind gusts well above hurricane force on Bermuda. The initial extra- tropical cyclone subsequently evolved into a subtropical storm and later tropical cyclone which became a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Operationally, the system was not classified as a subtropical storm until 1800 UTC on 12 October, but in post-analysis it was determined that the parent LOW had acquired sufficient warm- core features to be classified as a subtropical storm by 12/0000 UTC when the cyclone was near Bermuda. The NHC storm report on Karen includes a very detailed and interesting discussion of the thermo- dynamic and kinematic characteristics of the system during its evolution from extratropical to subtropical to tropical cyclone. In the lower levels the system resembled a tropical cyclone while the upper levels were more typical of an extratropical cyclone. There are presently no detailed, definitive criteria for classifying such systems as extratropical, subtropical, or tropical, and frequently it is impossible to make the best determination about a storm system's character and energetics until a careful study of all available data can be accomplished during post-storm analysis. By 0600 UTC on 13 October, temperature data from the Advanced Micro- wave Sounding Unit (AMSU) indicated that Subtropical Storm One had acquired enough warm-core characteristics to be classified as Tropical Storm Karen. Karen was upgraded to a hurricane at 1800 UTC on the 13th and reached its peak intensity of 70 kts at 14/0600 UTC based on an objective Dvorak intensity estimate of 70 kts. Thereafter, the storm weakened rapidly and made landfall in Nova Scotia as a 45-kt tropical storm on 15 October. Sustained winds to near hurricane force with gusts ranging from 78 to 85 kts were officially recorded on Bermuda. Additionally, the cruise ship Nordic Empress reported a gust to 103 kts at 11/2317 UTC while anchored on the west side of the island. Environmental pressures near Bermuda were higher than normal when the pre-Karen LOW approached and helped to create a very tight pressure gradient across the island. The extreme gust reported by the Nordic Empress was possibly related to strong downdrafts emanating from low-topped convection. The strong winds caused considerable tree and powerline damage on Bermuda. At one point 23,000 persons were without power. One cruise ship was set adrift when its mooring line snapped, and a dozen or so smaller boats broke loose from their moorings and either ran aground or were sunk. Karen's rains were benefial to Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland where a drought had been in progress, but up to 150 mm of rain fell in twelve hours near Cape Race, resulting in the worst floods in 100 years in St. John's. Wind gusts to 56 kts were reported in Nova Scotia but caused only minor tree damage. The official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Karen, prepared by Stacy Stewart, can be found at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001karen.html> NOTE: The official "best track" for Karen begins at 11/0600 UTC, but gale warnings for the initial parent LOW were being issued on the 10th. The preliminary track for Karen included in the author's cyclone tracks file for October begins the track at 10/0000 UTC, based on information gleaned from TPC's High Seas Forecasts. Tropical Storm Lorenzo (TC-14) 25 - 31 October ------------------------------- All things considered, Tropical Storm Lorenzo was the most insignificant named storm of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. It remained at sea far from any populated shores and was the only storm not to intensify above minimal tropical storm intensity of 35 kts. Like several of the late-season tropical cyclones, Lorenzo was not tropical in origin--its roots lay in an upper-level trough over the eastern Atlantic. The "best track" begins the tropical depression stage at 1200 UTC on 27 October. In the cyclone tracks file for October, I traced the weak parent surface LOW back to 1800 UTC on the 25th based on information contained in TPC's High Seas Forecasts. For tropical cyclones originating from non-tropical systems, NHC normally begins the track at the point the system began to show signs of developing tropical characteristics, which makes sense for a tropical cyclone database. The official TPC/NHC storm report for Tropical Storm Lorenzo, prepared by Miles Lawrence, can be found at the following URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001lorenzo.html> *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for October: 1 tropical depression 2 tropical storms 2 hurricanes Eastern North Pacific Tropical Activity for October --------------------------------------------------- In terms of tropical storms, October, 2001, was fairly active with four named storms (plus one non-developing tropical depression). Two of these storms reached hurricane intensity. For the period 1971-2000, the average number of named storms and hurricanes for October has been 1.9 and 1.1, respectively. The most active October in terms of tropical storms was in 1992 when five developed. However, October, 1983, stands as the most active month of October on record in terms of net tropical cyclone activity. Three intense hurricanes traversed Eastern Pacific waters during that month. Since the official storm reports are now available on TPC/NHC's website, and since the storms were rather insignificant and did not affect land, I am not going to attempt to summarize them individually. Tropical Storm Lorena formed in early October south of the Mexican coast and at one point looked like it was going to make landfall, but shear increased and the storm dissipated west of Manzanillo. Tropical Depression 14E formed several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula while Lorena was operating further east, but dissipated within 30 hours after the first advisory was issued. Tropical Storm Manuel formed from the remnants of Caribbean Hurricane Iris and pursued a westerly and west-northwesterly track away from the mainland. Manuel intensified to 45 kts, weakened to a depression, then re-intensified, reaching a peak intensity of 50 kts on the 16th. It should be noted that Manuel did not form from the core circulation of Iris--that dissipated over Mexico--but rather developed in association with some convection from Iris which had moved southward over Pacific waters. Had the actual circulation of Iris reached the Pacific intact and re-intensified, it would have retained the name Iris. Hurricanes Narda and Octave were twins--both formed in the same general area roughly 1000 nm southwest of Baja California, both reached a peak intensity of 75 kts, and both lasted for only four or five days as they pursued similar west-northwestward tracks. In the table below I have included the links to the official NHC reports for all the 2001 Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones as well as the name of the author of each report. I highly recommend that readers go to NHC's website and read the reports. Cyclone Link Author(s) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Adolph http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001adolph.html> Stacy Stewart Barbara http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001barbara.html> Jack Beven Cosme http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001cosme.html> James Franklin Erick http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001erick.html> Lixion Avila Dalila http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001dalila.html> Miles Lawrence TD-06E http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001six-e.html> Richard Pasch Flossie http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001flossie.html> Stacy Stewart Gil http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001gil.html> Jack Beven Henriette http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001henriette.html> Daniel Brown/ James Franklin Ivo http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001ivo.html> Lixion Avila Juliette http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001juliette.html> Miles Lawrence/ Michelle Mainelli Kiko http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001kiko.html> Richard Pasch Lorena http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001lorena.html> Stacy Stewart TD-14E http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001fourteen-e.html> Jack Beven Manuel http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001manuel.html> James Franklin Narda http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001narda.html> Lixion Avila Octave http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001octave.html> Miles Lawrence Tropical cyclone activity was very minimal in the Central North Pacific region during 2001. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center to my knowledge has not prepared any storm reports such as those by TPC/NHC, but a brief end-of-season summary can be found at the website for the CPHC: http://184.108.40.206/pr/hnl/cphc/pages/cphc.shtml> Click on the link: Year End Summary *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for October: 1 tropical depression ** 2 typhoons 1 super typhoon ** - This system was treated as a tropical depression by JMA and some of the other Asian TCWCs, but not by JTWC NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted. However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons of coordinates with some of the Asian warning centers when their positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks. Also, a special thanks to Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, for sending me tracks based on warnings from the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT). In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October ----------------------------------------------- Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific basin was down some from the level seen during August and September, but was probably about normal for the month. Three tropical cyclones were named, and all three reached typhoon intensity. Typhoon Krosa formed near the Marianas Islands, moved northwestward and executed a fairly smooth recurvature south of Japan. Typhoon Haiyan formed in the Philippine Sea and recurved about midway between northern Taiwan and Okinawa. Both Krosa and Haiyan were typhoons of moderate intensity, but the third typhoon of the month, Podul, became an intense and long-lived super typhoon. Podul formed near Pohnpei, farther east than most of the year's tropical cyclones, and followed a generally northward track well-removed from any populated areas except for a brush with the small island of Minami Tori Shima (Marcus Island). Podul also was the first in a parade of tropical cyclones forming at very low latitudes during the latter months of 2001. One other system was classified as a tropical depression by JMA during October. The initial disturbance can be traced back to an area of convection that formed on 17 October east of Palau. During succeeding days the system moved westward, crossing Mindanao on the 19th and 20th and emerging into the South China Sea. JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair in a special STWO issued at 2100 UTC on 20 October. A weak LLCC was present just west of Mindanao with some convection organizing around the center. JMA classified the system as a weak depression in their High Seas Summary at 21/0000 UTC when the center was a couple hundred miles east of the Vietnamese coast. JTWC issued a TCFA at 21/0300 UTC, noting that the disturbance was embedded in a broad expanse of convection associated with the monsoon trough. The LOW continued moving westward at around 15 kts and had moved inland into Vietnam by 21/1800 UTC. With the LLCC inland with no further chance of development, JTWC cancelled the TCFA at 22/0200 UTC. Even though the depression's winds were weak, it had precipitation power. Torrential rains fell over portions of Vietnam's central provinces, leading to flash floods and river flooding. A press report sent to the author by Huang Chunliang indicated that since August, floods and lightning had killed 361 people in Vietnam. Earlier flooding in the Mekong Delta had claimed 322 lives, and 39 persons had died recently in the nine central provinces, likely due to the effects of the tropical depression. Three of these deaths were due to lightning. Total flood damages were estimated to be $66.6 million. Typhoon Krosa (TC-24W / TY 0120) 3 - 11 October --------------------------------- Krosa: contributed by Cambodia, is the Cambodian word for crane (a type of bird) A. Storm Origins ---------------- A persistent area of convection developed in early October near the Marianas Islands and on the 3rd was located just east of Guam. Animated satellite imagery depicted unorganized convection associated with a weak LLCC in the area. As the day progressed the disturbance began to develop rather rapidly. JTWC issued a TCFA at 1600 UTC as radar depicted a LLCC west of Rota on the southern edge of some deep convection and synoptic data indicated falling pressures in the region. A 200-mb analysis indicated that the system was located in an area of weak vertical shear with good outflow aloft. JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 24W at 1800 UTC with the center located approximately 40 nm north-northwest of Guam or about 30 nm west of Rota. (A post-storm track indicates that it is likely the system had reached depression status by 03/1200 UTC.) Deep convection continued to increase and JTWC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm at 04/0000 UTC when the center was located about 100 nm northwest of Guam or a like distance west-southwest of Saipan. JMA classified the system as a tropical depression at 0000 UTC, and at 0600 UTC upgraded the cyclone to Tropical Storm Krosa while at the same time JTWC upped the MSW to 45 kts. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ Krosa tracked rather quickly northwestward away from the Marianas on 4 October as it was steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast. The storm also continued to intensify steadily in a favorable environment with water vapor imagery indicating the develop- ment of a poleward outflow channel. By 1800 UTC JTWC had upped the MSW to 60 kts based on CI estimates of 55 and 65 kts. JTWC upgraded Krosa to a 65-kt typhoon at 05/0000 UTC when it was located roughly 400 nm west-northwest of Saipan. Between 0600 and 1200 UTC the cyclone underwent rapid intensification, reaching its peak intensity of 105 kts at 1200 UTC (per JTWC's analysis) when located about 380 nm southwest of Iwo Jima. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a recent SSM/I pass indicated that an intense convective ring had developed over the previous few hours, and animation indicated that the eyewall had contracted around a 14-nm diameter irregular eye. Water vapor imagery revealed a pronounced poleward outflow channel extending from the system. Gales extended outward about 180 nm from the center in the northern semicircle and about 115 nm to the south. The radius of storm-force winds was estimated to be 60 nm. Typhoon Krosa tracked in an increasingly northward direction on the 6th as it moved around the western edge of the subtropical ridge and by 1800 UTC was moving north-northeastward. The storm reached the westernmost point of its track at 06/0600 UTC when it was centered approximately 385 nm west-southwest of Iwo Jima. The typhoon held its own, although there were some signs that it had weakened slightly: the eye became less defined and convection weakened some. JTWC reduced the intensity to 100 kts at 0000 UTC where it remained for 24 hours. Interestingly, the tracks from JMA and NMCC depict Krosa reaching its peak intensity (10-min avg) of 80 kts and 90 kts, respectively, at 06/1200 UTC. On 7 October JTWC decreased the MSW to 95 kts at 0000 UTC and to 90 kts at 0600 UTC where it remained through 1800 UTC. It should be noted, however, that at least one CI estimate remained at 102 kts through 1200 UTC. By 1200 UTC both NMCC and JMA indicated some weakening of the typhoon. At 07/0000 UTC Krosa was located about 300 nm west of Iwo Jima, moving northeastward at 10 kts. This fairly slow northeastward motion continued throughout the 7th. The storm continued to slowly weaken on the 8th with the intensity dropping to 75 kts by 0600 UTC (although one CI estimate remained at 90 kts through 1200 UTC). Typhoon Krosa passed approximately 275 nm north of Iwo Jima around 0900 UTC as it began to accelerate northeast- ward. The cyclone's track gradually shifted more to the right, and by 1800 UTC Krosa was racing east-northeastward at 27 kts. The storm was also showing signs of extratropical transition as it encountered shear from the mid-latitude westerlies. JTWC issued their final warning on Krosa at 09/0600 UTC, downgrading it to a 55-kt extratropical LOW located about 575 nm east-southeast of Tokyo or about 650 nm south- southeast of the Kuril Islands. The system was developing frontal features as it moved further into a baroclinic zone. NMCC also dropped the storm at 0600 UTC, but JMA carried it through two more warning cycles before declaring Krosa extratropical at 1800 UTC. The potent extratropical storm continued rapidly east-northeastward, crossing the Dateline late on the 10th, and at 11/0000 UTC was still generating 60-kt winds well south of the Aleutian Islands. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- The MSW estimates from NMCC and JMA compared rather well with those from JTWC (after adjusting for the different averaging times) for most of Typhoon Krosa's history. NMCC's estimated peak intensity of 90 kts compares very well with JTWC's peak MSW of 105 kts. JMA's peak of 80 kts is a little lower, but still in fairly good agreement. As noted above, the interesting thing is that both the Asian TCWC's time of peak intensity for Krosa was shifted later than JTWC's. JTWC's peak of 105 kts was from 05/1200 through 06/0000 UTC, JMA's peak intensity of 80 kts occurred from 06/1200 through 07/1200 UTC, and NMCC estimated their peak of 90 kts from 06/1200 through 07/0600 UTC. The minimum central pressure estimated by JMA was 950 mb from 06/1200 through 07/1200 UTC. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Typhoon Krosa have been received. Typhoon Haiyan (TC-25W / TY 0121 / Maring) 11 - 19 October ------------------------------------------- Haiyan: contributed by China, is the name of a bird--the petrel A. Storm Origins ---------------- On 7 October a persistent area of convection was noted deep in the tropics far to the south-southwest of Guam. Animated satellite imagery depicted organized convection associated with a weak LLCC. The system remained quasi-stationary on the 8th, but by the 9th had moved north- westward to a position about 100 nm southeast of Yap. Convection had decreased some, but a 200-mb analysis indicated that the disturbance lay beneath diffluent easterlies associated with a sub-equatorial ridge. At 10/0600 UTC the system was relocated to a point about 275 nm northeast of Yap. Convection was scattered, but by 1400 UTC deep convection was seen to be increasing so JTWC upgraded the develop- ment potential to fair. The disturbance was relocated significantly to the northwest at 11/0600 UTC to a position approximately 510 nm northwest of Yap. The system's organization was continuing to improve in a region of weak vertical shear and good outflow. Also at 0600 UTC, PAGASA initiated warnings on the system, naming it Tropical Depression Maring (a Filipino nickname) with 30-kt winds. (Although JTWC did not issue the first warning until 1200 UTC, a post-storm track begins Maring/25W as a depression at 0600 UTC.) JTWC issued a TCFA at 0700 UTC, followed at 1200 UTC by the first warning on Tropical Depression 25W, located approximately 470 nm east of northern Luzon. The MSW was estimated at 25 kts and the depression was moving west-northwestward at 16 kts. Deep convection was erupting on the northern edge of the LLCC. JMA classified the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at 1800 UTC. JTWC's MSW remained at 25 kts based on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts plus synoptic reports. JTWC upped the intensity to 30 kts at 12/0000 UTC and to tropical storm status at 0600 UTC. Maring's rather rapid west-northwestward motion had come to a halt--the cyclone was by this time moving northwestward at only 3 kts. By 1800 UTC the available CI estimates were all 35 kts so JMA upgraded Maring/25W to Tropical Storm Haiyan with 35-kt winds (10-min avg). JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was also still reported as 35 kts in the 1800 UTC warning. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ Tropical Storm Haiyan moved little on 13 October. The cyclone remained quasi-stationary most of the day roughly 450 nm east of the northeastern tip of Luzon as it slowly strengthened. JTWC upped the MSW to 45 kts at 0000 UTC and to 50 kts at 1200 UTC as animated visible satellite imagery depicted building deep convection over the LLCC. By late in the day Haiyan was drifting northward at 3 kts in a weakened ridge flow pattern of the subtropical ridge. A SSM/I pass during the (local) morning resulted in a 40-nm southward adjustment in the storm's position. JTWC upgraded Haiyan to typhoon status at 14/0000 UTC based on current intensity estimates of 45 and 55 kts and synoptic reports. Satellite imagery indicated that the southwest monsoonal flow out of the Philippine Sea was enhancing the banding features and expanding the stronger winds over the eastern semicircle. By 0600 UTC Haiyan had turned to a slightly faster north-northwestward track about 500 nm east-southeast of Taipei. Satellite intensity estimates had reached typhoon force by 1200 UTC and the MSW was bumped up to 70 kts. A 14/0944 UTC TRMM pass had indicated that an eye was forming under extensive deep convection. At 1800 UTC Haiyan's center was located about 265 nm south of Okinawa, and the storm's heading had turned to the west-northwest as the subtropical ridge strengthened slightly following the passage of a shortwave trough to the north. JTWC increased the MSW slightly to 75 kts, and NMCC and PAGASA both upgraded Haiyan to typhoon status. (JMA did not upgrade the storm for another 24 hours.) During the 15th Typhoon Haiyan tracked initially westward and west- northwestward, but by 1800 UTC the storm had turned to the northwest. The mid-level ridge to the north was being weakened by the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. JTWC gradually increased the MSW to the peak for the storm of 90 kts at 1800 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates had reached 90 kts by this time and a ragged eye was visible. Haiyan was located at 1800 UTC about 200 nm southwest of Okinawa, moving northwestward at 10 kts. Gales covered an area almost 400 nm in diameter, and 50-kt winds extended outward 80 nm from the center. The forecast northward turn became reality on 16 October. At 0600 UTC the typhoon was moving northward, and by 1800 UTC Haiyan had passed north of the subtropical ridge axis and was trekking north- eastward under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge to the east. Although there were a couple of CI estimates of 102 kts (T5.5), JTWC did not raise their MSW estimate above 90 kts. At 1800 UTC Haiyan was located about 100 nm west of Okinawa and was beginning to show signs of extratropical transition--the MSW had been lowered to 75 kts by this time. On the 17th Haiyan began to get caught up more and more in the mid- latitude westerlies. At 17/0000 UTC the storm was located about 80 nm northwest of Okinawa and moving northeastward at 11 kts. By 1800 UTC the center was approximately 230 nm southeast of Sasebo, or 500 nm southwest of Tokyo, and scooting east-northeastward at 23 kts. The intensity continued to slowly decline as the day progressed, although infrared imagery indicated some re-development of deep convection during the (local) night. At 1800 UTC JTWC downgraded Haiyan to a 60-kt extratropical storm and issued their final warning. JMA carried the cyclone as a tropical storm for another twelve hours, then declared Haiyan to be extratropical at 18/1200 UTC. The remnant extratropical gale continued moving eastward, and at 19/1800 UTC was still generating 35-kt winds about 950 nm east of Tokyo. However, I was unable to find any further references to the system in JMA's High Seas Warnings, so presumably it weakened thereafter or else was absorbed by another system. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- Intensity estimates between JMA and JTWC, after allowing for the different averaging periods, were in good agreement during the early stages of Haiyan's life when the storm was intensifying, and again during the rather rapid decaying phase. JMA's peak 10-min avg MSW of 70 kts was a little low compared to JTWC's 90-kt peak MSW, but not unusually so. NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW estimate of 80 kts was in excellent agreement with JTWC's peak intensity. PAGASA had reached 70 kts when Haiyan exited its AOR after 16/0000 UTC; however, this was during the time of the storm's peak per the other centers. CWBT and HKO estimated the storm's intensity (10-min avg) at 70 and 75 kts, respectively, during the time that Haiyan was within their AORs. The minimum central pressure estimated by JMA was 960 mb from 16/0000 through 16/1800 UTC. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ I received a few rainfall reports from Huang Chunliang which had been sent to him by Chun-Chieh Wu of the National Taiwan University. These represent storm totals for the period 14/1600 UTC through 16/1400 UTC for several stations on Taiwan: Station Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------- Neo-Tsu, Hsinchu County 322 Anpu, Chutzhu 234 Tung-Hou, Taipei County 223 Ta-Chi, Taoyuan County 214 Kuang-Wu, Miaoli County 185 Da-Cho-C, Ilan County 160 E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or deaths resulting from Typhoon Haiyan/Maring have been received. Super Typhoon Podul (TC-26W / TY 0122) 18 - 29 October --------------------------------------- Podul: contributed by DPR Korea (North Korea), is the Korean name for the willow tree A. Storm Origins ---------------- On 16 October a persistent area of convection was located deep in the tropics near Pohnpei. Animated visible and infrared imagery indicated disorganized convection associated with a weak LLCC. CIMSS analysis indicated fair outflow and weak to moderate vertical shear. Little change was noted on the 17th, except that the area of convection shifted about 120 nm to the south. At 1200 UTC JTWC upgraded the potential for development to fair. Deep convection was becoming better organized and a CIMSS analysis indicated that outflow was improving and shear was lessening over the region. JTWC issued a TCFA at 2200 UTC after a considerable increase in the coverage of deep convection had been observed. Also, a 17/1920 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated a LLCC situated over a surface trough just south of Pohnpei. JMA was the first warning agency to classify the developing cyclone as a tropical depression. At 18/0000 UTC JMA located a 30-kt tropical depression slightly over 100 nm southwest of Pohnpei. JTWC re-issued the TCFA at 2200 UTC followed by the first warning on Tropical Depression 26W at 19/0000 UTC. (A post-storm track retroactively identifies the system as a depression at 18/1800 UTC.) The center of TD-26W was located approximately 150 nm west-southwest of Pohnpei or about 270 nm east-southeast of Chuuk. The warning intensity of 30 kts was based on CI estimates of 25 and 30 kts. The partially-exposed LLCC was decoupled to the east of the deep convection. By 1200 UTC CI estimates were 30 and 35 kts, so JTWC upgraded the depression to tropical storm status, still pretty much in the same location. A 19/0754 UTC SSM/I pass had revealed a partially-exposed center to the northeast of the nearest deep convection. However, more recent enhanced infrared imagery depicted deep convection building over the LLCC. Organization had improved by 20/0000 UTC, and with CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts, JTWC increased the MSW to 45 kts. At the same time, JMA upgraded the cyclone to tropical storm status, assigning the name Podul. Tropical Storm Podul was then located about 250 nm east of Chuuk, moving northward at 4 kts. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ Podul's intensity remained pegged at 45 kts for about 18 hours on 20 October, but deep convection continued to increase and organize near the system's center. JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 1800 UTC and to typhoon intensity at 21/0000 UTC when Podul was centered about 260 nm north-northwest of Pohnpei or roughly 700 nm east of Guam. The typhoon continued to trek toward the north as a weakness in the subtropical ridge allowed a near-equatorial ridge south and east of the system to exert a steering influence on Podul. Intensification of the cyclone proceeded at a rather slow rate. The MSW was increased to 75 kts at 21/1200 UTC and remained there for 18 hours. NMCC and JMA both upgraded Podul to typhoon status at 22/0000 UTC. Typhoon Podul plodded northward on 22 October, shifting to a north- northeastward track late in the day. The primary steering mechanism remained a mid-level near-equatorial ridge southeast of the storm, but a cutoff LOW to the northeast apparently was the factor causing the northeastward jog in Podul's track. Podul continued its slow intensi- fication with winds reaching 90 kts by 1200 UTC. A 22/1117 UTC SSM/I pass indicated a developing banding eye feature, while animated water vapor imagery revealed favorable conditions aloft with dual outflow channels. The northeastward motion continued early on the 23rd, but by 1200 UTC had become north-northwesterly as a major shortwave ridge moving off Japan and a building mid-level peripheral ridge helped to provide a more northwestward track while the cutoff LOW filled and lifted out to the northeast. JTWC increased the MSW to 100 kts at 23/0000 UTC and steady intensification continued throughout the day. Winds were upped to 115 kts at 0600 UTC as satellite imagery indicated that the eyewall had contracted around a cloud-free eye. By 1800 UTC Dvorak numbers had reached T7.0 from SAB, JTWC and KGWC, therefore, Podul was upgraded to the season's second super typhoon with 135-kt winds, located approximately 550 nm west-southwest of Wake Island. The storm was then moving northwestward at 4 kts, but was forecast to recurve to the north and northeast as a mid-latitude trough approached from the northwest. Super Typhoon Podul's slow northwestward trek continued on 24 October, becoming slightly west-northwestward as the day progressed. The storm intensified further with the estimated MSW reaching 140 kts at 0600 UTC. Satellite imagery revealed that Podul underwent a concentric eyewall cycle on the 24th--by 0600 UTC the eye diameter had expanded slightly to 24 nm. Gales extended outward 170 nm from the center to the southwest and out 155 nm in the northern semicircle. The radius of 50-kt winds was estimated to be around 50-60 nm. JTWC lowered the intensity to 130 kts for a 12-hour period beginning at 25/0000 UTC but bumped it back up to 140 kts at 1200 UTC. The eye diameter had increased to 30 nm by 25/0000 UTC and storm-force winds extended outward 80 nm from the center. Podul maintained the 140-kt intensity for 24 hours the second round. During this period JMA and NMCC both estimated their peak intensities of 100 and 120 kts, respectively, while JMA estimated a minimum CP of 925 mb for the typhoon's history. By 1800 UTC on the 25th Podul's motion had become northerly as the mid-latitude trough east of Japan continued to deepen and weaken the subtropical ridge. The cyclone at this time was located about 500 nm east of the northernmost Marianas Islands, and this represents the westernmost point in Podul's track. Although satellite intensity estimates were still 140 kts at 26/1200 UTC, JTWC lowered the MSW to 130 kts as the storm began to show signs of weakening. Enhanced infrared imagery revealed cirrus streaming northeastward and a decrease in convection in the southwestern quadrant. Even though still a super typhoon, Podul was showing the first hints of extratropical transition. By 1800 UTC Podul was located approximately 700 nm northwest of Wake Island and was moving north-northeastward at 22 kts. JTWC decreased the MSW to 120 kts, thus ending Podul's reign as a super typhoon. Podul had maintained super typhoon intensity (MSW 130 kts or higher) for 72 hours, making it the longest-lived super typhoon since Keith in November of 1997 which was a super typhoon for 3.5 days. According to Mark Lander, Super Typhoon Joan just a month earlier in October, 1997, holds the record for the longest continuous period of 130+ kt winds. Joan maintained super typhoon status for 4.5 days, peaking at 160 kts. JTWC reduced the MSW to 100 kts at 27/0000 UTC, noting that animated satellite imagery indicated dry air entrainment and cold air advection in the southwestern quadrant. As the day progressed Podul continued to accelerate north-northeastward and weaken. By 1800 UTC JTWC judged the system to have completed extratropical transition and issued their final warning, locating the center south of the Kamchatka Peninsula approximately 1000 nm east of Japan and racing north-northeastward at 32 kts. Winds were still at typhoon strength, however, and JMA also was still classifying Podul as a typhoon. JMA continued to issue warnings on Podul as a tropical storm through 28/0600 UTC, declaring the system extratropical at 1200 UTC. The remnant extratropical LOW subsequently turned eastward and weakened--by 29/0600 UTC it was a 996-mb LOW well south of the Aleutians, just west of the Dateline. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW of 120 kts agrees very well with JTWC's estimated 140-kt peak intensity. NMCC maintained an intensity of 110 kts from 24/0600 through 26/1800 UTC, closely matching JTWC's period of super typhoon intensity for Podul. JMA's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW of 100 kts was reached briefly at 24/0000 UTC, and again from 25/1200 through 26/0600 UTC. JMA's estimated 10-min avg MSW remained at 90 kts or higher from 23/1200 through 26/1800 UTC. The minimum central pressure estimated by JMA was 925 mb from 25/1200 through 26/0600 UTC. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ The only observations I have available came from the small island of Minami Tori Shima (also known as Marcus Island). These were obtained by Rich Henning. At first it appeared that the intense typhoon might pass directly over the small island, but the center appeared to pass just to the east. The lowest pressure reported was 967 mb at 1000 UTC on 26 October while the peak sustained wind was 44 kts at 0900 UTC. Winds exceeded gale force from 0300 through 1200 UTC, coming initially from the east-northeast and veering around to the northwest as the center passed by. E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Even though Podul was a very intense typhoon, other than the brush with Minami Tori Shima, it remained well away from any land areas. No reports of damage or casualties have been received. *********************************************************************** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for October: 2 tropical cyclones of gale intensity ** ** - One of these was classified as a cyclonic storm by IMD only NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the WMO's RSMC for the basin. The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian region, both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied. In the North Indian basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within 48 hours. North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October ------------------------------------------------ Two weak tropical cyclonic systems were tracked in the North Indian Ocean basin during October. The first one, in the Arabian Sea, was designated as Tropical Cyclone 03A by JTWC and briefly reached minimal tropical storm intensity. The second system developed in the Bay of Bengal and moved westward into southeastern India. JTWC did not issue warnings on this disturbance, but IMD classified it as a cyclonic storm (i.e., a tropical storm). Tropical Cyclone (TC-03A) 9 - 10 October -------------------------- An area of convection developed on 7 October about 100 nm west- southwest of Bombay. A weak LLCC which had tracked westward off the coast of India was associated with the convection, which was increasing in organization. JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair at 0500 UTC on the 8th, noting that convection was continuing to increase and that the disturbance was located in an area of fairly weak vertical shear with good outflow aloft. However, a 08/1625 SSM/I pass failed to indicate any significant organization. A TCFA was issued at 0300 UTC on the 9th. Early morning visible satellite imagery and a 09/0055 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that a LLCC had developed beneath an intense mid-tropospheric cyclone with deep convection and the strongest winds in the northern quadrant. The first warning on TC-03A was issued at 09/0600 UTC with the initial intensity estimated at 30 kts. Visible satellite imagery indicated the development of a banding cloud feature in the western semicircle. A 200-mb analysis indicated diffluent flow extending over the region. JTWC increased the MSW to 35 kts at 09/1200 UTC. The cyclone's center was located approximately 250 nm west of Bombay or about 370 nm south of Karachi, Pakistan, tracking west-northwestward at 7 kts as it was steered by a mid-level ridge anchored over the northeastern Arabian Sea. Some recent microwave images depicted convective bands surrounding the LLCC and 37 GHz data from a 09/0913 UTC TRMM pass indicated that the low-level convection was most intense on the northern side in convergent flow. The intensification trend for TC-03A, however, was quite brief. At 1800 UTC, even though Dvorak CI estimates were still 35 kts, a QuikScat pass revealed peak winds of 30 kts and it was felt that the QuikScat winds were more representative and in line with the current imagery trend. Also, deep convection had dissipated over the LLCC, so the MSW was lowered back to 30 kts. The cyclone continued to slowly weaken as it drifted to the west- northwest across the Arabian Sea. Entrainment of dry air from the north was another inhibiting factor in the system's demise. By 10/0600 UTC the LLCC had decoupled from the deep convection farther north and the MSW was lowered to 25 kts. The final JTWC warning was issued at 1200 UTC with the exposed, convection-free LLCC located about 400 nm south of Karachi, drifting slowly northward. Re-intensification was not considered likely given the unfavorable upper-level conditions and the dry air environment into which the system was moving. (NOTE: I was unable to obtain any bulletins or outlooks from IMD on the 10th and 11th, so I do not know if that agency ever classified TC-03A as a cyclonic storm. IMD's Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 09/0711 UTC referred to the system as a depression.) Bay of Bengal Cyclonic Storm 15 - 16 October ---------------------------- An area of convection developed in the Bay of Bengal about 325 nm south-southwest of Cuttack, India, on 13 October. Synoptic data revealed a broad LLCC beneath the convection, and a 200-mb analysis indicated that the subtropical ridge extended over the region. The system drifted westward on the 14th with little change in intensity. Late on the 14th the LOW seemed to be getting better organized, so JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair. Enhanced infrared and early morning visible imagery on the 15th indicated a significant improvement in the convective organization of the system, so JTWC issued a TCFA at 15/0300 UTC. A 15/0003 UTC QuikScat pass indicated a 25-30 kt LLCC. The system was centered approximately 115 nm north- east of Madras at the time. In the meantime, IMD had classified the LOW as a depression by early on the 15th. By 0900 UTC IMD had upgraded the depression to a deep depression (MSW of 30 kts), and at 1200 UTC it was further upgraded to a cyclonic storm (MSW of 35 kts). The storm was then located about 75 nm east- northeast of Madras or 90 nm east-southeast of Nellore. In the SWTO issued at 1800 UTC, JTWC mentioned that a 15/1232 UTC QuikScat pass had revealed a LLCC with 25-30 kt winds, therefore, JTWC did not initiate warnings on the system. A second TCFA was issued at 16/0300 UTC, noting that the center was exposed with the convection sheared to the west. However, a bulletin issued by IMD at the same time indicated that the center of the cyclonic storm had crossed the south Andhra Pradesh coast earlier in the morning near Nellore. With the center inland, JTWC cancelled the TCFA at 1600 UTC. Bulletins from IMD indicated that the system had weakened into a depression by 16/2100 UTC and was centered about 100 km northwest of Nellore. By 0300 UTC on the 17th the system had moved northwestward and weakened further over central Andhra Pradesh. *********************************************************************** SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for October: 1 tropical depression ++ 1 severe tropical storm ** ++ - Classified as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC ** - System originated east of 90E in the Australian Region The primary sources of information upon which the narrative is based are the warnings issued by the TCWC on La Reunion Island, part of Meteo France, which is the RSMC for the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. However, cyclones in this region are named by the sub-regional centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E being the dividing line between their respective areas. La Reunion only advises these centres regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds should be understood as implying a 10-min averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the accompanying tracks file some position comparisons have been made with JTWC's positions, and warnings from JTWC were used as a source of 1-min avg MSW estimates. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October ---------------------------------------------------- Not long after the sun had crossed the equator on its annual south- ward journey, the first stirrings in the South Indian Ocean began to be seen. A disturbance during the first week of October a few hundred miles east of Diego Garcia became both JTWC's and RSMC La Reunion's first numbered tropical system of the 2001-2002 Southern Hemisphere season. The system remained weak, but since JTWC briefly upgraded the winds to 35 kts, and since MFR archives 30-kt tropical depressions in their Best Track database, I am including a short summary of this depression below. Late in the month the Southwest Indian basin saw more tropical cyclone activity in the form of a visitor from the Australian Region. Tropical Cyclone Alex was named by the Perth TCWC on 26 October and subsequently moved westward, crossing longitude 90E the next day and receiving the name Andre from the Mauritius Meteorological Service. Since Alex-Andre originated in the Perth TCWC, it will be covered in the Northwest Australia/ Southeast Indian Ocean section of this summary. Tropical Depression (TC-01S / MFR #01) 4 - 8 October --------------------------------------- A STWO issued by JTWC at 0400 UTC on 2 October mentioned that an area of convection had formed several hundred miles east of Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery revealed disorganized convection in the area and a QuikScat pass indicated the existence of a weak LLCC. By the 3rd the system had moved to the southwest from its position the previous day and seemed a bit better organized, so JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair. Some deep convection was noted, and a 200-mb analysis indicated that the disturbance lay beneath an upper-level ridge axis under diffluent flow. Satellite imagery on 4 October revealed an exposed LLCC to the northeast of deep convection. The LOW was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia, and lay on the equatorward side of an upper-level ridge axis with moderate northeasterlies aloft. The maximum winds were estimated to be 20 to 25 kts. The system remained quasi-stationary on the 5th with little change in appearance. MFR initiated warnings on the developing system at 05/0600 UTC with the center located roughly 650 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. By late in the day animated satellite imagery depicted an increase in deep convection over a partially-exposed LLCC, so JTWC issued a TCFA at 2300 UTC. In the meantime MFR had upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression status with 30-kt winds (10-min mean) at 1800 UTC. The depression was still experiencing some vertical shear, but had good outflow aloft. JTWC issued their first warning on TC-01S at 06/0600 UTC, placing the center about 665 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and moving southward at 7 kts. The initial warning intensity was estimated at 35-kts (1-min avg), which was very much in line with MFR's estimated 10-min avg wind of 30 kts. Satellite imagery revealed an exposed LLCC approximately 30 nm east of the deep convection. A 200-mb analysis indicated that the system lay under 20 to 30 kts of vertical shear. MFR's intensity estimate remained at 30 kts, and on the second JTWC warning at 06/1800 UTC, the MSW was lowered to 30 kts. The center remained exposed and convection was weakening. Over the next couple of days the system moved slowly southward and southwestward. The center remained partially-exposed with cycling convection which gradually weakened. MFR downgraded the depression to a tropical disturbance at 0600 UTC on the 7th and issued their final bulletin at 07/1800 UTC. The final JTWC warning at 08/0600 UTC noted that animated satellite imagery revealed very weak cycling convection with no evidence of a LLCC. The dissipating system's final position was approximately 720 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. No casualties or damage are known to have resulted from this tropical depression. *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for October: 1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity ** ** - System moved west of 90E into Southwest Indian Ocean basin The primary sources of information for Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings and bulletins issued by the TCWC at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. Information gleaned from JTWC's warnings was used as a supplement for times when it was impossible to obtain Australian bulletins and for comparison purposes. References to sustained winds should be under- stood as being based on a 10-min averaging period unless otherwise noted. Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October ------------------------------------------ The first tropical cyclone of the 2001-2002 season in the Australian Region formed during the last week of October a few hundred miles northwest of Cocos Island. Named Alex by the Perth TCWC, the cyclone moved westward across longitude 90E into the Southwest Indian Ocean basin where it was renamed Andre by Mauritius. A little explanation might be useful here regarding the use of the term "severe". Alex was referred to as "Tropical Cyclone Alex" east of 90E, but became "Severe Tropical Storm Andre" upon entering the Southwest Indian basin, although the reported intensity remained about the same. In the Australian Region, a "severe tropical cyclone" is one in which maximum 10-min mean winds exceed 64 kts, i.e., a cyclone of hurricane intensity. But west of 90E a "severe tropical storm" is a system with 10-min average winds in the range of 48-63 kts. More information on the particular terminology used by the various TCWCs can be found in the summary for April, 2001 (Feature of the Month section). Tropical Cyclone Alex-Andre (MFR #2 / TC-02S) 24 - 31 October ----------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- At 1000 UTC on 24 October JTWC issued a STWO which mentioned that an area of convection that had developed earlier was located in the South Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra or a few hundred miles north of Cocos Island. Persistent deep convection was associated with a broad, poorly-organized LLCC. A 200-mb analysis indicated that the region was beneath weak northerly winds associated with an extension of an upper- level ridge. At 1000 UTC on the 25th JTWC relocated the disturbance farther to the west and upgraded the development potential to fair. Animated infrared and visible satellite imagery revealed a well-defined LLCC with increasing organization of deep convection. A SSM/I pass had indicated that the primary convection was situated along the southern periphery of the LLCC. JTWC issued a TCFA at 25/1600 UTC, upgrading the potential for development to good. Maximum winds were estimated at 20 to 30 kts. At 0300 UTC on 26 October the Perth TCWC issued a gale warning for the LOW in anticipation of further development. At 0600 UTC the system was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Alex, located about 300 nm northwest of Cocos Island. Also at 0600 UTC, JTWC issued their first warning on the system, estimating the MSW to be 35 kts. Perth's warning estimated the peak winds to be 30-45 kts (10-min avg). Alex displayed a well-developed LLCC with deep convection wrapping into the center of the cloud system. The cyclone was situated in a weakness between a mid-level HIGH to the northwest and a stronger ridge to the east- southeast. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ After being upgraded to tropical cyclone status, Alex moved slowly westward. Upper-level northeasterlies continued to shear the system, hampering the intensification process. By 1800 UTC on 27 October deep convection had become better organized with both JTWC and Perth estimating the intensity at 50 kts. Alex continued to be steered west- ward to west-southwestward by a mid-level ridge situated to the south- east. At 27/1800 UTC the cyclone was located about 525 nm north- west of Cocos Island and just east of the 90th meridian. By 0000 UTC on the 28th Alex had entered the Southwest Indian Ocean basin and had been renamed Andre by Mauritius. Alex-Andre was near its peak intensity at this time with the MSW as reported by both JTWC and MFR being 55 kts (1-min and 10-min averages, respectively). A 10-min avg wind of 55 kts would equate to a 1-min avg of 65 kts, and the JTWC warnings on 28 October noted that there were some CI estimates of 65 kts received. Severe Tropical Storm Andre (by MFR's terminology) tracked slowly to the southwest on the 28th with some evidence of shearing evident by 1800 UTC, the system being located in a region of moderate northeastly shear equatorward of the subtropical ridge. Andre's track became west-southwesterly and later westerly on 29 October. Convection seemed to increase early in the day, but by 1800 UTC the deep convection had been sheared to the west of the LLCC and had decreased in coverage. MFR and JTWC lowered the MSW estimates to 35 and 45 kts, respectively, at 1800 UTC. JTWC's 29/0600 UTC warning had forecast slow intensification, but the 1800 UTC warning called for no strengthening with weakening after 36 hours. The shear continued unabated on 30 October and Andre continued to slowly weaken. By 1800 UCT, MFR and JTWC had lowered their respective MSW estimates to 30 and 35 kts. The storm at this time was located roughly 600 nm east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Andre's center was apparently quite difficult to pinpoint on 30 and 31 October as there were quite a bit of discrepancies between MFR's and JTWC's coordinates. The best estimate is that the storm halted its westward motion and jogged back to the east-northeast late on the 30th before embarking on a southwesterly track once more early on the 31st. The JTWC warning issued at 31/0000 UTC notes that the LLCC was embedded in a larger, broad circulation and was difficult to locate. By 1800 UTC on 31 October, Andre's LLCC had broadened and become disorganized. Therefore, both MFR and JTWC issued their final warnings on the system at that hour, placing the dissipating center approximately 400 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. A weak remnant LOW remained in the area for a couple of days but showed no signs or regeneration. C. Comparisons between Perth/MFR and JTWC ----------------------------------------- Intensity estimates basically were in good agreement between the official Southern Hemisphere warning centres and JTWC. Over the past few years that I have been writing these summaries, I have noticed a persistent upward bias in Perth's reported 10-min avg MSW estimates as compared with JTWC's, and this was the case for Tropical Cyclone Alex. However, for the time of peak intensity when the cyclone crossed 90E, the values from Perth and La Reunion were in excellent agreement. JTWC's equivalent 1-min avg MSW was close, but represented a slightly weaker storm than that estimated by the Southern Hemisphere centres. But, as noted above, JTWC did receive some CI estimates of 65 kts but chose to be slightly on the conservative end. During Andre's weakening phase, the intensities reported by JTWC and MFR were in close agree- ment. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone Alex-Andre have been received. *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for October: 1 tropical LOW Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Activity for October ----------------------------- There were no tropical cyclones or well-organized tropical LOWS in the Gulf of Carpentaria or Coral Sea during October, but there was one system which deserves a brief mention. The equatorial westerly wind burst around mid-month which produced Super Typhoon Podul in the North Pacific helped to spawn a weak "twin" south of the equator. This system did not show any significant signs of development until the 25th when a fairly well-defined LOW center formed near Bougainville. The TCWC at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, issued a gale wind warning for the 1005-mb LOW, which at 25/1030 UTC was located approximately 60 nm southwest of Bougainville Island or about 145 nm northeast of Woodlark Island. Gale-force winds and severe squalls of 34-45 kts were forecast to occur and persist for the next 6 to 12 hours. The deep convection associated with this LOW developed against the diurnal trend as an upper-level trough was crossing Australia. However, the upper-level trough also eventually brought detrimental vertical wind shear over the system and it soon weakened. (A special thanks to Jeff Callaghan of the Brisbane TCWC for forwarding me a copy of the Port Moresby warning and for providing some information on this system.) *********************************************************************** SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for October: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. *********************************************************************** AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [126.96.36.199] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using October as an example: oct01.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: oct01.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael Pitt, and Rich Henning): http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/> http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR http://220.127.116.11> http://www.hurricanealley.net/> http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike> http://www.met.fsu.edu/gsc/Docs/Grads/henning/cyclones/> NOTE: The URL for Michael V. Padua's Typhoon 2000 website has changed. Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html> TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2000 and a report on the 2000-2001 season in the Southern Hemisphere. ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: http://18.104.22.168/jtwc.html> Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov> Prepared by: Gary Padgett E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays) *********************************************************************** ***********************************************************************
Document: summ0110.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006
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Jolt Awards: The Best Testing Tools, May 01, 2012 The Annual Award for Best Testing Products
Jolt Productivity Award
Designed for cross-platform, functional GUI regression testing, Squish sports a lengthy list of features that work equally well across Windows, Linux, OSX, and embeddable systems. These include insertion and verification of points, screenshots, complex data controls, SQL databases and external files, the ability to automatically record test scripts independent of screen coordinates and resolutions (making GUI tests far less brittle), comprehensive logging in XML, HTML, XLS, and plain text, customizable object name generation, and extensive GUI object map generation. It can accept tests written in JavaScript, Perl, Python, Ruby, and Tcl; and generate tests in the same languages. Usability is excellent, as it took me only a few minutes to get oriented and start generating Python and Ruby test scripts for several diverse GUI-based applications.
The product also ships with the full source code, so you'll never have to worry about making an investment in a technology that could go dark if the company goes MIA.
froglogic offers two types of licenses (tester and runner) and license models (named user and group). While pricing is disclosed on their website, the formulas are complex enough that it's hard to know exactly how much a small test organization would pay. Roughly 1000 euros per seat per year is a valid range. The company offers useful screencasts on its site that demonstrate many of Squish's Jolting differentiators.
— Mike Riley

subset: commoncrawl


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1. Minimum Age
You must be at least 18 years old to register and play at this site. We can request documents to confirm a player's age at any time. Any player found to be under 18 years of age will have their account frozen and all balances including any winnings will be forfeited. All balances in such accounts will be dealt with in any manner deemed fit at the sole discretion of Cozy Games Management Limited.
2. Registration Policy
Cozy Games Management Ltd. reserves the right to decline the acceptance of an account registration at any time at its sole discretion. If an account is closed, we will honour all contractual obligations and all unused balances will be refunded to account holders, subject to the meeting with terms and conditions of withdrawal policy and Management's obligations under the Gaming Supervision Commission's directives
Players are allowed to have only one account per household, shared computer, physical address or internet connection. Players using false or misleading information during registration will have their accounts closed and all winnings will be forfeited. Such players will themselves be liable for all loses in terms of deposit. Player registration may be refused or closed at the Operator's sole discretion but contractual obligations already made will be honoured.
Management at their sole discretion may withhold or delay any withdrawal of funds made from any game which may require further investigation due to any system malfunction. In this case, we will be under no obligation to pay players who take advantage of these occurrences and an alternative award may be determined on a case by case basis.
Management reserves the right to terminate any player's account at any time without notice if a player is found to be violating or abusing any of the terms and conditions or rules on the Website. At its discretion, management may suspend, void any winnings or withhold any balance if the player is found to have violated any of these terms.
3. Prohibited Users
Cozy Games Management Ltd. does not accept liability for any breach by prohibited players of the applicable laws of their state or country of residence. We reserve the right at our sole discretion to declare any wager and winnings as void if a player is identified to have been playing illegally.
Players from the countries listed below are prohibited to register and place bets. We sincerely apologize to these customers. The countries are:
Albania, American Samoa, Arab Jamahiriya, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Cook Islands, Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Croatia, Cuba, Czech Republic, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North), Denmark, Estonia, France, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Guadeloupe, Guam, Herzegovina, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kosovo, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Latvia, Libya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Martinique, Mayotte, Metropolitan & Territories, Moldova, Montenegro, Myanmar/Burma, Nauru, Netherlands, New Caledonia, Nigeria, Northern Cyprus, Southern Cyprus, Northern Mariana Island, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland and Yugoslavia., Puerto Rico, Republic of Korea (South), Reunion, Romania, Russia, Russian Federation, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, South Africa, Spain, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United States, United States Minor Outlying Islands, USA, Uzbekistan, Virgin Islands (U.S.) and Zimbabwe, Wallis-et- Futuna.
4. Transfer of Accounts and Funds
Players are prohibited from selling, transferring and/or acquiring accounts to and from other players.
Player is also prohibited from transferring funds to and among player accounts.
5. Know Your Client
A 'Know Your Client'procedure will be carried out on all real money players. We will request you to provide additional proof of identity to assist with our age verification policy before processing your withdrawal. Upon request we will require specific proof of identity in the form of photo copy of a valid passport or driving license, utility bill or header of a recent bank or credit card statement along with specific proof of deposit method like front copy of credit/debit card..
As part of Money Laundering requirements, withdrawals may be subject to Proof of Identity checks. In accordance with the Act, no payments shall be made unless the player's identity, age, Deposit method and place of residence have been verified.
6. Dormant Accounts
In the event that no transaction has been recorded on a player's account for thirty months, the account will be deemed dormant and we reserve the right to close the account and remit the balance using the last known details of the player.
In the event that the player cannot be satisfactorily located, such cases will be dealt with in any manner deemed fit at the sole discretion of Cozy Games Management Limited.
Players shall not treat Cozy Games Management Ltd. as a financial institution nor expect interest on their deposits.
7. Account Disputes
If the player has any dispute with regard to any outcome, she/he must submit a complaint to email@example.com in writing within fourteen (14) days of the event taking place to Cozy Games Management Ltd.
Any disputes must be made in writing providing all the details (date, time, details of game play under question). We take player disputes very seriously and take all reasonable steps to investigate and resolve all disputes.
f the complaint is not resolved to your satisfaction, you have the right to refer such complaint to the Gaming Supervision Commission of IOM by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.com
8. Promotional Offers
From time to time we offer new and/or existing customers various promotional offers. By registering and accepting the Terms & Conditions, the player is confirming that the player has subscribed to receive Promotional emails, Calls, SMS and Mail to inform player about any promotions that we may have to offer. The terms of these promotional offers will be clearly stated for each individual promotion. It is your responsibility to ensure that these terms are fulfilled in order to qualify for the respective bonus, credit or prize and also to facilitate any subsequent withdrawal. If there is any ambiguity between these Terms& Condition and the promotion specific Terms, then the promotional terms will prevail. Promotional offers are restricted to one per customer per transaction, unless otherwise stated in the promotional Terms & Condition. Players can unsubscribe from any of our promotional activities by contacting support.


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Having a beautiful, healthy, productive landscape all boils down to one thing – the abundance of life in your soil. That's the
whole key to organic gardening.
That's how nature started everything from the beginning of time, and that's how those of us that care about our environment and
having a balanced ecosystem chose to garden. We simply respect nature.
Overuse of synthetic fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides and so many years of overtilling have killed off the beneficial life that
we all once had in our soils.
To bring your soil back to life and to have a healthy, productive landscape, you will need to add organic matter back to the soil.
Organic fertilizers are made from ingredients that are made by nature in lower concentrations than any of the synthetic chemical
Organic products break down slowly and allow plants to only take the amount of nutrients they require at that specific time.
Chemical products contain high amounts of nitrogen, which result in instant greening that doesn't last long.
High concentrations of nutrients in chemical fertilizers are produced by synthetic means. Chemical fertilizers do not feed the
soil. Years of using chemical fertilizers will work as deterrents to the healthy microbial life that nature provides us with.
You will find that all fertilizers have an analysis of three numbers on the labels. These numbers tell you what percentage, by
volume, of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are in the blend.
Although the numbers are low on organic fertilizers, 6-8-2 for example, their potency is high. Plus there is no fear of burning or
other harmful effects with organic versus synthetic chemical products.
Chemical fertilizers can contain salts, don't have carbon energy, often contain high amounts of nitrogen and very few trace
minerals. The result of fast growth from synthetic chemical fertilizers can cause weak watery plant cells. This type of growth can
then lead to diseases and pest problems.
Synthetic chemical fertilizers force feed plants and are then leached out of the soil into our streams, rivers and eventually into
the oceans. In the end, your soil and plants' health are no better off than before you applied the synthetic stuff.
Synthetic fertilizers can cause salt build up in your soil. This is many times noticeable as a white film on plant leaves or on the
soil. Excess salt will damage soil life and plant roots.
Simply stated, organic fertilizers naturally help to put back into the soil what man has taken out.


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- "Vic, we're gonna try and find ourselves some Cholo, and I know right where we can pick up his trail."
- ―Phil Cassidy
Cholo Victory is the first mission in Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories given to protagonist Victor Vance by gun runner Phil Cassidy from Phil's Depot in Viceport, Vice City.
Victor goes by Phil's Depot in order to get some work. Phil, who is drunk, at first does not recognize Victor but eventually realizes who he is. Phil says that he wants to kill some Cholo gang members and attempts to drive his Walton but crashes into a wall. Phil tells Victor to drive him to the police station in Little Havana to look for some Cholo gang members. However, there are no Cholo gang members so Phil tells Victor to drive to the West Haven Community Center, also in Little Havana.
Phil spots a Cholo, who recognizes Phil's face and runs to his car. Victor and Phil begin to chase the Cholo and, when they get close enough, Phil begins to shoot. The car blows up, killing the Cholo. Phil instructs Victor to go to the Pay N' Spray to repair his car and then to drive him back to the Depot.
Mission Objectives
In order to complete the mission the player must:
- Take Phil to the police station to look for Cholo.
- Take Phil to check for Cholos at the hospital.
- Drive close to that Cholo so Phil can perform a drive-by.
- Take Phil's truck to a Pay 'n' Spray to get it fixed.
- Take Phil back to his place.
The reward for completion of the mission is $200 and unlocking the missions Boomshine Blowout for Phil and Shakedown for Marty Jay Williams.
- "Long Stick Goes Boom" By Krokus, featured on V Rock, will always play in Phil's Walton once the mission begins.
Video Walkthrough
|PS2 Version


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T.212.967.4899 | firstname.lastname@example.com | www.ippodogallery.com
Shiro Tsujimura
Item Number:C18399
About the Artist
The creator of Japan's most beautiful tea bowls. Originally a painter, he became enraptured by the aura of maternal benevolence he experienced when he came into contact with an anonymous O-IDO tea bowl as a young man and ever since, he has dedicated himself to the production of tea bowls at his studio in the mountains of Nara Prefecture.
The ceramics created by this gifted artist continue to delight collectors around the world and can be found in the collections of major museums in Europe and the U.S.
1947 Born in Gose, Nara
1965 Left for Tokyo to learn the technique of oil painting but became disillusioned with the process and abandoned the idea. He attracted pottery intensively, inspired by a classic ido tea bowl in Japan Folk-craft Museum and decided to take up pottery.
1966-68 Resided at Sansho-ji Temple in Nara
1969 Returned to father's farm and began making pottery
1967 Built own house in Mima, Nara City and workshop, teahouse, and seven kilns over the following seven years
1993 Built a kiln in West Devon, U.K., and made potteries
Thereafter exhibits in numerous museums, galleries and department stores within Japan and throughout the world.
Selected Solo Exhibitions:
1977 First exhibition at own house
1983 Mitsukoshi Nihonbashi Main Store, Tokyo (thereafter biannually)
1990 Tachikichi Main Store, Kyoto
1993 Japan Art, Frankfurt, Germany (also in '94)
1994 Gallery Besson, London
2003 Koichi Yanagi Oriental Fine Arts, New York (also in '06 and '12)
2006 Yu Gallery, Palace Hotel, Tokyo
2007 Ippodo Gallery Tokyo (also in '11)
2008 Honshun-in Daitoku-ji Temple, Kyoto
Public Collections:
Ackland Art Museum at the University of North Carolina / Chapel Hill, NC
Art Institute of Chicago / Chicago, IL
The Brooklyn Museum of Art / Brooklyn, NY
Asian Art Museum / San Francisco, CA
The British Museum / London, United Kingdom
Chado Research Center Gallery / Kyoto, Japan
Cleveland Museum of Art / Cleveland, OH
Frankfurt Craft Museum / Germany
Freer Gallery of Art and Arthur M. Sackler Gallery at Smithsonian Institution / Washington D.C
The Metropolitan Museum of Art / New York, NY
The Minneapolis Institute of Arts / Minneapolis, MN
Museum of East Asian Art / Berlin, Germany
Museum of Fine Arts, Boston / Boston, MA
Spencer Museum of Art at the University of Kansas / Lawrence, KS
Stockholm Museum of Art / Sweden
Philadelphia Museum of Art / Philadelphia, PA
Yale University Art Gallery / New Haven, CT
Miho Museum / Koka, Japan
ISE Cultural Foundation / New York, NY


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. . . is not in doubt. But as technology advances, it will not be as strong an identifier as it has been up to now. Scientists have demonstrated that they can fabricate it.
I wrote about the qualities of identifiers – fixity, distinctiveness, and permanence – in my book Identity Crisis. The ability to fabricate DNA renders it slightly less distinctive.


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Bullish on America? This Is Your ETF
This exchange-traded fund invests in the core of what drives the US economic engine: rail and ground transportation.
The 20 stocks held by the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund (NYSEARCA:IYT) are big transportation companies that move goods around the country and the world. This group of companies sees robust growth during the upswing of an economic cycle, but has the staying power to survive cyclical dips.
The companies in the iShares Transports fund are durable businesses. They are the pipelines of the world economy, serving as the vital link between producers and consumers.
The top five holdings in the iShares Transports fund include three Class I railroads -- Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), and Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) -- and the world's two largest parcel service companies, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS).
Class I railroads are massive operations with rights of way that are in many cases over 100 years old. The tracks were laid down before many parts of the nation were settled. In today's world of environmental impact studies, lawsuits, and a vicious NIMBY crowd, gaining the rights of way to replicate the footprint of America's Class I railroads would be nearly impossible.
For perspective, think about the controversy over the Keystone pipeline. Pipelines are quiet and unobtrusive. If a pipeline like the Keystone can't be done, a brand new railroad right-of-way with all the noise, ground-shaking, and crossings that slow local traffic is highly unlikely. The barriers to entry in the rail business are nearly impenetrable.
Kansas City Southern
This is the smallest railroad owned by the fund. KCS owns rail operations in the southwestern United States, Mexico, and Panama.
Arthur Stilwell founded what would become KCS in 1887 and built a local railroad to move goods around Kansas City. But Stilwell's dream was to build a railroad from Kansas City to the Gulf of Mexico. After much financial hardship for Stilwell, the railroad would eventually be built, ending in Port Arthur, Texas, named after Stilwell himself.
Today, KCS's rail network in the US and Mexico comprises 6,200 route miles throughout the southeast and southwest US and connects to all the other Class I railroads. After the recession, entrenched rail companies with strong fundamentals, like Kansas City Southern, bounced back.
Shipping Giants
FedEx and UPS, the two logistics and shipping giants in the fund, span the world with fleets of aircraft and trucks, and constellations of depots and warehouses worldwide. The failure of DHL in 2009 illustrated just how hard it is for new entrants to compete in the American parcel business. UPS and FedEx dominate the industry.
In 2011, UPS delivered an average of 15.8 million packages each day, for a total of 4 billion that year. The integrated air and ground network is the world's most extensive, serving 220 countries and territories. To make deliveries, UPS employed 101,876 cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles. UPS owns 230 jets and charters over 300 additional aircraft.
Another component of the fund is Matson (NYSE:MATX), a leader in Pacific shipping. Matson operates the Long Beach Express shipping route from Xiamen, Ningbo, and Shanghai to Long Beach, California.
The shipper is well known as a reliable operator. Matson has been a fixture in Pacific shipping since 1882, when Captain William Matson sailed to Hilo from San Francisco carrying 300 tons of supplies and merchandise. Later Matson would buy a bigger ship, and then more ships to continue expanding his trade operation between Hawaii and the mainland.
Today, Matson owns a fleet of 17 ships and charters three more. Matson also owns 34,000 containers, 14,000 container chassis and generators, and 900 auto-frames. Building a competing network of ships and warehouses would be difficult indeed.
Companies owned by the iShares Dow Jones Transportation ETF exist in high-barrier-to-entry industries, with business models not easily replicated today. In many cases, capital inputs spanning more than a century have built the businesses comprising the fund.
Unlike tech companies, who face the threat of the "next big thing," there is little alternative in the world of physically moving goods to market.Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Young of Intelligence Report.
Below, find some more great investing and trading content from MoneyShow:
This ETF Has a Solid Foundation
A Top Energy Patch Mutual FundTwitter: @TopProsTopPicks
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