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- About us
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These days, home PCs are a desirable target for attackers. Most of these systems run Microsoft Windows and often are not properly patched or secured behind a firewall, leaving them vulnerable to attack. In addition to these direct attacks, indirect attacks against programs the victim uses are steadily increasing. Examples of these indirect attacks include malicious HTML-files that exploit vulnerabilities in Microsoft's Internet Explorer or attacks using malware in Peer-to-Peer networks. Especially machines with broadband connection that are always on are a valuable target for attackers. As broadband connections increase, so to do the number of potential victims of attacks. Crackers benefit from this situation and use it for their own advantage. With automated techniques they scan specific network ranges of the Internet searching for vulnerable systems with known weaknesses. Attackers often target Class B networks (
/16 in CIDR notation) or smaller net-ranges. Once these attackers have compromised a machine, they install a so called IRC bot - also called zombie or drone - on it.
Internet Relay Chat (IRC) is a form of real-time communication over the Internet. It is mainly designed for group (one-to-many) communication in discussion forums called channels, but also allows one-to-one communication.
More information about IRC can be found on Wikipedia.
We have identified many different versions of IRC-based bots (in the following we use the term bot) with varying degrees of sophistication and implemented commands, but all have something in common. The bot joins a specific IRC channel on an IRC server and waits there for further commands. This allows an attacker to remotely control this bot and use it for fun and also for profit. Attackers even go a step further and bring different bots together. Such a structure, consisting of many compromised machines which can be managed from an IRC channel, is called a botnet. IRC is not the best solution since the communication between bots and their controllers is rather bloated, a simpler communication protocol would suffice. But IRC offers several advantages: IRC Servers are freely available and are easy to set up, and many attackers have years of IRC communication experience.
Due to their immense size - botnets can consist of several ten thousand compromised machines - botnets pose serious threats. Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks are one such threat. Even a relatively small botnet with only 1000 bots can cause a great deal of damage. These 1000 bots have a combined bandwidth (1000 home PCs with an average upstream of 128KBit/s can offer more than 100MBit/s) that is probably higher than the Internet connection of most corporate systems. In addition, the IP distribution of the bots makes ingress filter construction, maintenance, and deployment difficult. In addition, incident response is hampered by the large number of separate organizations involved. Another use for botnets is stealing sensitive information or identity theft: Searching some thousands home PCs for password.txt, or sniffing their traffic, can be effective.
The spreading mechanisms used by bots is a leading cause for "background noise" on the Internet, especially on TCP ports 445 and 135. In this context, the term spreading describes the propagation methods used by the bots. These malware scan large network ranges for new vulnerable computers and infect them, thus acting similar to a worm or virus. An analysis of the traffic captured by the German Honeynet Project shows that most traffic targets the ports used for resource sharing on machines running all versions of Microsoft's Windows operating system:
The traffic on these four ports cause more then 80 percent of the whole traffic captured. Further research with tools such as
Nmap, Xprobe2 and p0f reveal that machines running Windows XP and 2000 represent the most affected software versions. Clearly most of the activity on the ports listed above is caused by systems with Windows XP (often running Service Pack 1), followed by systems with Windows 2000. Far behind, systems running Windows 2003 or Windows 95/98 follow.
But what are the real causes of these malicious packets? Who and what is responsible for them? And can we do something to prevent them? In this paper we want to show the background of this traffic and further elaborate the causes. We show how attackers use IRC bots to control and build networks of compromised machines (botnet) to further enhance the effectiveness of their work. We use classical GenII-Honeynets with some minor modifications to learn some key information, for example the IP address of a botnet server or IRC channel name and password. This information allows us to connect to the botnet and observe all the commands issued by the attacker.
At times we are even able to monitor their communication and thus learn more about their motives and social behavior. In addition, we give some statistics on the quantitative information we have learned through monitoring of more than one hundred botnets during the last few months. Several examples of captured activities by attackers substantiate our presentation.
For this research, a Honeynet of only three machines was used. One dial-in host within the network of the German ISP T-Online, one dial-in within the network of the German ISP NetCologne and one machine deployed at RWTH Aachen University. The hosts in the network of the university runs an unpatched version of Windows 2000 and is located behind a Honeywall. The dial-in hosts run a newly developed software called
mwcollectd2, designed to capture malware. We monitor the botnet activity with our own IRC client called
drone. Both are discussed in greater detail later in this paper.
Almost all Bots use a tiny collection of exploits to spread further. Since the Bots are constantly attempting to compromise more machines, they generate noticeable traffic within a network. Normally bots try to exploit well-known vulnerabilities. Beside from the ports used for resource sharing as listed above, bots often use vulnerability-specific ports. Examples of these ports include:
The vulnerabilities behind some of these exploits can be found with the help of a search on Microsoft's Security bulletins (sample):


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Christine Tacon named as supermarket ombudsman
Christine Tacon, who ran the Co-operative's farming unit for 11 years, has been named by the government as the first supermarket ombudsman.
The creation of the post was first recommended by the Competition Commission in 2008 to resolve disputes between supermarkets and suppliers.
As "Groceries Code Adjudicator", Ms Tacon will have the power to fine misbehaving supermarkets.
She will hold the post for four years, once a law creating the post is passed.
Ms Tacon will be responsible for policing the "groceries supply code of practice", which was instituted under the last government in 2010 in order to ensure that the 10 biggest supermarket groups - with annual turnover of over £1bn each - did not abuse their relations with their suppliers.
Anonymous tip-offs
"It's quite a big responsibility, trying to represent the direct suppliers and making sure they've got fair contracts with the retailers," Ms Tacon told the BBC.
The code of conduct came two years after the conclusion of a major two-year review of the supermarkets by the Competition Commission, which criticised the exclusivity arrangement often signed between the supermarket chains and their suppliers.
One of the past practices banned by the code of conduct, according to Ms Tacon, involved supermarkets receiving a payment from a packaging firm in return for forcing their suppliers to use that packaging firm even if it was more expensive.
However, she will not officially take up the watchdog role until the Groceries Code Adjudicator Bill is passed by Parliament later this year. In the meantime she will act as "Adjudicator-Designate".
"This is an incredibly important position in the retail groceries sector making sure that large supermarkets treat their suppliers fairly and lawfully," said Consumer and Competition Minister, Jo Swinson.
Ms Tacon will be able to investigate anonymous tip-offs from suppliers.
"It's a reactive role - I have to get complaints before I can get actually involved and do something," she said. "There has been a lot of representation [from suppliers] that, although there is a code of practice, if it is not followed, people are frightened of complaining."
She said that the first stage, if she identifies a malpractice, is to make recommendations as to what supermarkets should do in future.
If a supermarket fails to comply, it can then be named and shamed, and - as a last resort - fined.
Ms Tacon has previously worked for Mars Confectionery, Vodafone and Anchor Foods, and currently holds a number of non-executive positions in the agriculture sector, including chair of the BBC's rural affairs advisory committee.
She will earn £69,000 per year in her new job, working three days a week.

subset: commoncrawl


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Ornametal Floral Designs
The files sharing system is completely free, not for profit and not commercial purposes . We want to create for everyone a graphic library of industry. Where you can learn other people experiences and ideas. to create your own style products .
Design files no longer bring value to you, but they are useful for many others . instead of deleting files please send files to us . We will share them on the Amee House system so more people have the opportunity to learn more about your design style . Thanks you !
The vector file ' Ornametal Floral Designs' is a CorelDRAW CDR ( .cdr ) Download file Corel F0002296 .this is the vector files for the CNC machine or Laser machine .


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Shari Warren of Warren Creative Design Services is a professional designer and illustrator.
As a Zenfolio member herself, she is dedicated to helping other users with the design and
customization of their website.
In the past, Shari has worked with Zenfolio on a number of creative projects; designing new
theme templates, conducting personal design consultations, and contributing to our book on
a Photography Website that Works for You
Warren Creative Design services include
Individual Custom Service and
Full Website Theme Customization. From hands-on design, color adjustments
and background images, to custom logos and watermarks, her services cover all aspects of your
website customization needs. In all cases, it is her goal to understand your vision for your
website and work closely with you to make sure you are happy with the end result.
These services are available to Zenfolio users and are designed to help with getting a new
photography website designed from the start, or customize an existing one.
A variety of created themes are also available for purchase from the
Warren Design Themes Store. The themes range from clean and minimal to
textured and decorative in order to enhance any photographic style. All themes have their
elements, text boxes, buttons and rules, color coordinated and are ready to "import and go"
into your personal Zenfolio theme designer.
Visit the Warren Creative Design website and the
Themes Store to request further info and details.
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Environment Waikato holds meeting in Taupo
Environment Waikato is holding its monthly council meeting in Taupo this Thursday, August 31.
Community » What's Happening » News » Media releases - archived
You can access our archive of media releases since 2000 by using the filter by date range search on the left hand side. Once you have made your date selections, click the filter button.
This archive does not include the recent media releases.
Environment Waikato is holding its monthly council meeting in Taupo this Thursday, August 31.
Bus patronage in the region broke through the two million mark annually for the first time as it rocketed 9.3 per cent to 2,156,268. This measurement was based on the 2005/06 financial year ending 30 June.
Environment Waikato is boosting bus services to Ngaruawahia over the next three days as tens of thousands pour into the town to mourn the death of Te Arikinui Dame Te Atairangikaahu.
Environment Waikato councillors today rejected calls to spend almost $1 million of ratepayers money to provide an extra subsidy for CNG buses, saying this does not represent good value for money.
Environment Waikato councillors and staff are today mourning the passing of the Maori Queen, Te Arikinui Dame Te Atairangikaahu.
Rugby fans wanting to go to the Air New Zealand Cup home games at the Waikato Stadium this season can leave their cars at home.
Environment Waikato has commissioned a survey to find out what people understand about backyard burning and its impact on air quality.


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Place Category: Parks and Playgrounds
The Gertrude Ederle Recreation Center, formerly known as Recreation Center 59, has been a vital community resource since the early 20th century. First purchased by the City in 1906 for use as a playground, the park parcel spanned mid-block lots from West 59th to West 60th Streets. Soon thereafter, the 60th Street Bathhouse opened on site. By 1942, the park had expanded to its present size.
Under the auspices of Manhattan Borough President John F. Ahearn and the Department of Public Works, this bathhouse was constructed as part of a larger effort to situate public baths in overcrowded working-class tenement districts for the purpose of greater personal hygiene and public recreation. At that time, a majority of homes in the bordering Hell's Kitchen community lacked indoor plumbing. Public showers and baths were a civic response to what Mayor William Strong called the needs of "the great unwashed." In 1895, the New York State Legislature mandated the construction of free public baths in cities with populations of 50,000 or more. The West 60th Street building, designed by Theodore E. Videto, was one of the first to comply with this directive. By 1911, twelve public baths had been erected in Manhattan.
In 2009, the recreation center closed for reconstruction to provide state of the art building upgrades, a renovation of the existing swimming pool systems, the addition of a new first aid room and wet classroom, improvements to the gymnasium and a new cardio room. An addition to the east side of the 60th Street building designed by Belmont Freeman Architects allowed for the construction of three new levels to house new men's and women's locker rooms, lifeguard locker rooms, a teen room, a computer room, a multi-purpose room, bathroom facilities, an exterior comfort station, and aerobics and fitness rooms. All three levels are accessible via a new elevator and new staircases. The existing 60th Street building façade was reconstructed, and the new building addition includes brick detailing to complement the existing façade.
Upon reopening in 2013, the name of the center changed to celebrate Gertrude Ederle. Born to German immigrants in New York City on October 23, 1905, Ederle was raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan at 108 Amsterdam Avenue, above her father's butcher shop. A Gold-Medal Olympian and World Record holder in swimming, Ederle is known to be the first woman to swim across the English Channel, departing from Cap Gris Nez in France on August 6, 1926, and landing on the shores of Kingsdown in Kent, England 14 hours and 39 minutes later.
When she returned to New York City after swimming the English Channel, it was reported in the New York Times that "Gertrude Ederle's neighbors on Amsterdam Avenue and the side streets welcomed her back home last night in a delirious demonstration of affection." The first female to have a ticker tape parade in her honor in New York City, the Daily News claimed that Ederle's "welcome home eclipsed any other reception New York had accorded an individual." Her achievement was applauded nationwide. President Calvin Coolidge (served 1923-1929) praised her as "America's Best Girl."
Ederle taught swimming at the Lexington School for the Deaf in New York City after losing a portion of her hearing several years after the Channel Swim. She performed in the 1939 World's Fair, and resided in Flushing, Queens for over 50 years. Gertrude Ederle died in Wyckoff, New Jersey in 2003 at the age of 98.
In keeping with the mission of NYC Parks' Recreation Division to further enable all New Yorkers to lead physically active lives through sports, fitness and outdoor adventure, the Gertrude Ederle Recreation Center provides New Yorkers with free and low-cost opportunities for people to exercise, and a wide variety of programs that promote healthy living. Amenities and programs include cardio and strength rooms, group fitness classes, sports leagues, arts and cultural programs, instructional computer courses and swimming classes.
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I have finally finished the Tailfeathers Quilt I have been Custom Quilting! This is my Mothers Quilt which she has done an amazing job on!
I had to get this one 'right' as Kelli my SIL had her Tailfeathers Quilted by the Amazing Angela Walters!
No Pressure at all...lol
Mum didn't want her stitchery's quilted on as she wants to hand quilt around them to give them a softer look.
I free motioned the rest of the quilt,
those 1" squares were fabulous
to quilt by the way, found muscles
in my shoulders I didn't know I had...ha-ha
Best of all she loves what I have done!
I have seemed to lose my Quilt mojo for the last few weeks that was until this morning when I commented on a post on Instagram to @anthrpienthesky about doing a quilt along using this pattern.
I knew if I made a comment that I would make the quilt, one in my growing list of to-do's
So Tiffany and I have set off on a small adventure together!
If you want to make the quilt then you can join in as well, Instamessage me and join the fun!
I decided to cut up my "Sugar" by Art Gallery that I have been coveting for about 4 years, and I already love my Decision!
Yay! I love the Excitement of a new Quilt!
Next weekend I have signed up for a Blogger's
get-together in Ballan,Info here.Excited already!


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This map is created utilising information from various websites as well as information provided from reputable sources.
It's continuously be improved and updated to try provide as much useful information to users of the DMR and DMR MARC repeaters in the UK.
Any comments, questions and queries relating to the map can be sent via PM to 2E0UCW.
Repeater specific information can be posted under the "Ask UK DMR Admins Section" of this forum.
Colour / Shape Key below:
Green - Operational
* Circle = On the DMR MARC Network
* Diamond = On the DMR MARC Network with TG8 Regional Linking (refer to the comment box for the linked repeaters)
* Square = Not on the DMR MARC Network
Amber = Licenced but not yet operational
Red = Application Stage (Location is based on co-ordinates available on the UK Repeaters website and is a proposed location only)
Black = Application Stage (Location based on town as no co-ordinates provided on the UK Repeaters website for privacy reasons)
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid= ... 0YCxcowrXY


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You're a Superstar
What difference does it make when Jesus was born? Answer: Identifying the Star of Bethlehem as both an astronomical event and a meaningful sign. If the star was a natural phenomenon, then which one it was depends on when we date the birth of Jesus. I happen to believe the date most commonly accepted – between 6 and 4 BCE – is open to question and a later date to be preferred – and I'll tell you why.
The dating of Christ's birth is calculated from one event: the death of Herod, a specific historical event referenced in the Gospels. And how is the death of Herod dated? It is calculated from a specific astronomical event, namely a lunar eclipse. Most historians assume this eclipse to have been the one that occurred on March 12/13, 4 BCE. But that is not the only lunar eclipse that could be used to date it, and if a later eclipse is more likely, we also find an even more dramatic series of astronomical appearances in the Middle East – whose meaning would have been profound to star-gazers of the day – that occurred before and at the time of this later date for the birth of Jesus. We call these appearances the Star of Bethlehem.
Someone is bound to object that the Star of Bethlehem was a purely miraculous, i.e. supernatural, event. However, there is no explicit statement in the gospel narratives that requires us to believe that the star is something more than a natural, albeit extraordinary, phenomenon. (Regarding Mt.2:9, see below.) It served as a sign, I would contend, because of its timing and its meaning. So what was the timing and the meaning?
When did Herod die?
According to Matthew and Luke here is the order events around the birth of Jesus:
- Augustus orders a census for tax purposes
- Joseph and Mary travel to Joseph's ancestral home of Bethlehem
- Jesus is born, circumcised and presented in the temple
- The Magi arrive in Jerusalem and are questioned by Herod
- The Magi find Jesus in Bethlehem
- Herod orders the massacre of Bethlehem's male infants
- The family flees to Egypt
- Herod dies
- The family returns from Egypt
In order to date these events, at least one of them must have a fixed date, and that event is Herod's death. The Jewish historian Josephus describes the circumstances of his death. Herod ordered the execution of two dissident rabbis on the same night as a total lunar eclipse (Antiquities, 17.167). He died shortly afterward. Most historians hold that the eclipse referred to is one that happened on March 13, 4 BCE. Shortly after his death was a Passover, indicating that it was spring. Herod had ordered the death of all boys two and under in Bethlehem, strongly suggesting that the Magi told him the star had first appeared some two years before their arrival. Herod concluded that the birth he was worried about had happened sometime in the previous two years. Thus, Jesus's birth is placed in 6-4 BCE, on the assumption that Josephus' eclipse was in 4 BCE.
Jesus' birth 6/5 BCE ?
The Bethlehem Massacre 5 or 6 BCE ?
Herod's death March/April 4 BCE
Are there reasons to question this dating? Yes, a few.
1. According to Josephus, a lot of things happened between the eclipse and Passover, which fell on April 11 in 4 BCE. That's less than a month. The other proposed early date of 5 BCE has a lunar eclipse on September 15/16, but Passover is seven months later.
2. A proper reckoning of Herod's reign begins with beginning of his first full year of reign on April 11, 35 BCE. Josephus places Herod's death in his 34th year of reign, which began on April 6, 2 BCE.
3. Most of the early Christian scholars date Christ's birth to 2/3 BCE: Irenaeus, Clement of Alexandria, Tertullian, Africanus, Hippolytus of Rome, Hippolytus of Thebes, Origen, Eusebius, Epiphanius, Cassiodorus Senator and Orosious. All these people had a much better handle on the reckoning of time in the ancient world, and likely had access to records that no longer exist. No early historians give a 6-4 BCE date.
4. Another, later eclipse fits the timeline better. It was on Jan. 10, 1 BCE (there were no lunar eclipses in 3 or 2 BCE). The Passover was twelve and a half weeks later, allowing time for the events between the two, while Herod's death could still be described as shortly after the first and shortly before the second.
In other words, Herod may in fact have died three years after the accepted date. In which case, the early historians, forming a consensus, may have been correct in assigning a later birth date. But there are even more compelling facts to consider.
"We Have Seen His Star"
How about celestial occurrences that we could identify as the Star of Bethlehem?
"Some may regard the star as entirely mythical, some as completely miraculous, but it is also possible to suppose and inquire after an actual celestial phenomenon back of the account." – Jack Finegan (1908-2000)
We should go where the evidence leads, but I favor the latter approach – investigating an event that can be verified independently of Scripture – for the following reason. The star as presented by Matthew is a sign to the non-Jewish world, and it is a sign that was not to be read about 60 or 70 years later. An immediate sign for people who would take note of it and seek to understand what it meant and what it pointed to. A miraculous star does not rule this out, but how much greater a sign it is, if in fact it is an astronomical event whose factual-historical nature stands unquestioned throughout all history to come – like the stars and planets themselves. So if there is such an event, and it happens to line up with the other events under consideration, we should not rule it out because it is not strictly supernatural. But Matthew 2:9 has this peculiar account:
When they heard the king, they departed; and behold, the star which they had seen in the
East went before them, till it came and stood over where the young Child was.
Not exactly how you expect a star or other celestial body to behave. But the planets could have reached their stationary points at that very time; they would seem to "stand still." Also, there could have been a concurrence of zodiacal light which creates the appearance along the ecliptic of a beam of light (actually sunlight) and can seem to be shining down on the earth like a spotlight.
In short, a completely natural phenomena, but serving a divine purpose at a divinely appointed time.
Those who hold to 4 BCE for Herod's demise can point to a number of astronomical phenomena which could account for the appearance of the star.
The Chinese recorded a nova (or a comet) in 5 BCE (appearing for 70 days, perhaps more), and another in 4 BCE. In 7 BCE there was was a triple conjunction of Jupiter with Saturn in Pisces, with Mars also coming close.
But what if we accept a later date of 1 BCE for Herod's death? If Herod ordered the massacre sometime in the last months of his life, it points back to 3 or 2 BCE for the birth. In those years there were no novae or comets, but there was something even more remarkable for its astrological meaning and its allure to the Magi.
Finegan (550*. Emphasis mine):
On the morning of August 12, 3 B.C., Jupiter and Venus rose in the eastern sky, an event which could ave been what was meant when the magi said, "We have seen his star in the East," or "in its rising" (Matt 2:2). (The word ἀνατολῇ means both the "rising [of stars]" and the "place of the rising [of the sun]," i.e., the East.) In this conjunction Jupiter and Venus were so close they were almost touching each other. From the point of view of astrological symbolism, Jupiter is the king planet and Venus (Ishtar in Babylonia) a female; so their conjunction can suggest a coming birth. The conjunction took place in Leo (the Lion) and near the bright fixed star Regulus. Regulus is the king star and the Lion constellation is the tribal sign of Judah…Afterwards Jupiter moved on to be in close conjunctions with Regulus three times (a triple conjunction on Sept 14, 3 B.C., Feb 17, 2 B.C., and May 8, 2 B.C.), then June 17, 2 B.C., came into again into conjunction with Venus, this time being so close that without a modern telescope the two planets would have looked like a single star. In the fall and winter 3/2 B.C. Jupiter appeared to stop several times against the background of the stars; and on June 17, 2 B.C., Jupiter and Venus were in extremely close conjunction and shone almost like a single bright star in the west – in the direction of Jerusalem as seen from Babylonia. With these phenomena we may compare Matthew 2:9: "The star which they had seen in the East went before them, till it came to rest over the place where the child was." If the magi were students of astronomical events it can theorized that the appearance of this star on June 17, 2 B.C., was the final heavenly sign that impelled them in the late summer or early fall to Jerusalem and Bethlehem, where they found the child Jesus, 'who was born some time during the previous year and a half.'
This is what the magi saw that foretold something they perceived as of immense importance to the world:
The king planet came together with the woman/maiden/mother planet in the constellation of the tribe of Judah – the tribe of David, Joseph of Nazareth and Jesus. Then the king planet came together with the king star – emphasizing the royal significance – not once but three times. And during the first of these, the sun was in the constellation of Virgo – the virgin. Then the king planet and the woman reunited, appearing as one.
Finally, on the winter solstice of 2 BCE, Jupiter reached a stationary point, "in the constellation of Virgo (the Virgin) when Jupiter was directly over Bethlehem, about 68 degrees above the southern horizon as viewed from Jerusalem where the magi were."
I don't believe in astrology, that our fate is governed or revealed by celestial movements, but the magi probably did; that's why they followed the 'star.' And I believe something even more rational and wonderful: that God, the Creator and Sustainer of all things, synchronized the heavens with his unfolding plan of redemption and revelation. He spoke to a watching, wondering people, in the stars and planets sparkling in the night sky. He spoke their language, and bid them Come and see. I don't know about you, but it fills me with awe.
We know, astronomically, what happened during those months. For those of us who believe, we also know what happened historically there in Bethlehem. It's easy to imagine how jubilant the magi must have been at the discovery that lay at the end of their long journey and the years of sky watching that preceded it.
When they saw the star, they rejoiced with exceedingly great joy.
-Matthew 2:10
They rejoiced because what they anticipated from their interpretation of the planetary and stellar paths was the birth of a great King, the Lion of the Tribe of Judah, and they came to honor and worship Him. The Star – the king planet and the king star shining in the house of the virgin – and words of the prophets, had led them to Him.
The heavens declare the glory of God;
And the firmament shows His handiwork.
Day unto day utters speech,
And night unto night reveals knowledge.
There is no speech nor language
Where their voice is not heard.
Their line has gone out through all the earth,
And their words to the end of the world.
{Psalms 19:1-4a}
*These numbers are Finegan's section numbers, rather than page numbers.
[This article is essentially a summary of some of the relevant sections from Jack Finegan's Handbook of Biblical Chronology – Rev Ed. (Peabody: Hendrickson, 1998). I have done no independent research here. Finegan, a professor of New Testament History and Archeology, was a master of the subject. The book is extremely complex, and challenging to follow, so I have long wanted to write a digest of this topic that was more accessible.]
Here is a chronology of the period incorporating some of Finegan's conclusions. Any errors are mine.
Jupiter+Venus near Regulus Aug. 12 3 BCE 550*
Jupiter+Regulus (1) Sept. 14 3 BCE 550
The Enrollment Before Feb. 5 2 BCE 519 – 526
Jesus' Birth January 2 BCE 569
Jupiter+Regulus (2) Feb. 17 2 BCE 550
Jupiter+Regulus (3) May 8 2 BCE 550
Jupiter+Venus June 17 2 BCE 550
Magi leave Summer 2 BCE
Magi arrive in Jerusalem Fall 2 BCE
Jupiter stationary in virgo dec. 25 2 BCE 551, 547
Magi go to Bethlehem & see Jesus
Joseph, Mary & Jesus flee to Egypt
Slaughter of the Innocents 508-510
Total lunar eclipse Jan 9/10 1 BCE 514
Herod's Death Jan-March 1 BCE 501-518


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Reporting: Monessa Guilfoil
Ensemble Theatre of Chattanooga Director Garry Posey came across the concept album that this musical is based on many years ago. To his delight, the songs from Jeremy Schonfeld have been used in the making of a musical with lyrics and music by Schonfeld and the book by Craig Pospisil. 'Drift' was given a good review when it premiered at the New York Musical Theatre Festival in 2006. ETC will be one of the first Regional Theatres to mount a production of this, "New, edge rock musical," says Posey. He says that 'Drift' contains very little dialog, instead relying on songs, staging and theatricality to tell the story of it's protagonist David who is going through a divorce. The play opened this weekend on the Black Box stage of the St. Andrew's Center.
Here's more about this production from the ETC website:
June 1 – 17
- Fridays
- 7:30
- Sundays
- 2:30, 6:30
"Jeremy Shonfeld, the writer, is insistent about the story being told through the music, there is very little dialogue in the 90 minute show," says director Garry Lee Posey. "A component from a previous production utilized videography, something that I believe could really enhance the story telling, so we are using that convention as well. To help us direct the use of this convention in the most effective way possible, we are focusing on music videos for inspiration."
Drift marks the 25th production that Garry Posey has directed with ETC. "To me, Drift is a musical that finds its protagonist trying to survive in two different worlds- fantasy and reality. In the musical, recently divorced David lives (and sings about what is) in his mind. His ex, Laura conversely finds herself trying to pull David back into reality. Ironically, the plot of DRIFT and my tenure thus far with ETC are almost mirror images of the other."
Drift is directed by Garry Posey. Cast members include Maggie Bradshaw, Damon Buxton, Dana Colagiovanni, Kyle Dagnan, Ryan Laskowski, Ellen Poole, Justin Wahlne and Jeremy Wilkins. The stage manager is Casey Keelen.
Listen to the Story:


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In spring, the world seems to slowly come back to life again. The weather becomes milder; plants and flowers begin to grow and bloom; and the wildlife seems to return in full force. With this awakening of nature, we shake off our winter reverie and begin to become more active ourselves. We want to be out and about doing the most to seize the day; however, every now and again we or those around us might need a little motivation. With that in mind, we have compiled a list of tips to help not only the seniors in your life, but also yourself to get and to keep motivated and seize the day!
– Create attainable goals: We tend to think of goals as something for the young and those in the work force, but this is not the case. No matter your age you can benefit from setting long term or short term goals. Goals not only act to motivate you, but give you a focused sense of purpose. Once a goal is achieved the person also benefits from a more secure sense of independence at being able to accomplishing something challenging on their own. Keep in mind though that your goals should be attainable. Do not set yourself up for the impossible. Instead, choose goals that will challenge you to go outside your comfort zone, but that are also manageable.
– Be flexible: As we grow older, we can get stuck in our ways, which ends up hindering us in the long run. An inability to change not only effects how we act in a given situation, but also how we feel about ourselves and our overall life satisfaction. Someone who is uncompromising and unwilling to adapt are more likely to reflect negatively about their current circumstance; whereas, those who are more willing to be flexible and adapt tend to have an overall better outlook on life. Keeping this in mind, try to embrace small spontaneities that pop up your life and adapt to those situations that are bogging you down. By being flexible, you will come out the other side with a sunnier outlook not only on the experience, but life in general.
– Acknowledge your own usefulness: Too often we forget to reflect and acknowledge all that we do. It all too easy to dismiss ourselves and all that we do on a day to day basis. This dismissal can often harm our own self-esteem and make it especially difficult to remain motivated. In order to combat this, try to take time out of your day and reflect on what you have done to be useful for yourself as well as others. On top of helping validate yourself, this time might also allow you to figure out how you might want to change your current habit and set some personal goals for yourself.
– Try something new: The new can be a very frightening thing whether it be trying to learn how to use a new piece of technology or trying a completely foreign type of cuisine. To help mitigate your fear perhaps try to frame your new experience in a new way. Many fear the new not because of the thing itself, but a fear of failure. Instead, know that whether or not you are a whiz after bonding (or not) with your new piece of technology or are a new connoisseur of Laotian cuisine does not reflect back on you. It is the fact that you tried something new (and slightly scary or uncomfortable) that does reflect back on you.
We hope these tips will help you kick off your spring the right way and keep you motivated all the way through summer. Carpe Diem!


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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
A contest of regions
Those are the macro numbers. What about the micro numbers?
I thought it would be interesting to break the projection down to the sub-regional level to try to get an understanding of how things are playing out. Seeing the numbers in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia are fine - but these provinces are far from monoliths. In fact, every province is.
What I've done below is use the riding-by-riding projections to get an estimate of regional support. But pay attention, as there are some caveats.
This is not the same as the polling averages for these regions, but rather how the national polls translate into regional support levels. So, it is not necessarily reflective of how things are really looking in every part of the country. What it tells us instead is that, based on wider trends, these are how these regions are likely playing out. It is meant to give us a general idea, rather than a specific measure of public opinion.
In effect, it is using the projection model to project regionally, rather than by riding. But it isn't as simple as swinging the national polls and their provincial breakdowns to the regional level, as the riding projections take into account incumbency and the like. If a region has seen a lot of incumbents retire, that has an effect that a simple swing would not capture. By-elections, too, are also part of the equation.
As to the definitions of the regions, I used the ones presented here on Wikipedia. It is perhaps not a perfect division of the country (I would have done some of these differently), but it is good enough. Let's get to it.
The Liberals have the edge in Vancouver and the Northern Lower Mainland. The Conservatives and New Democrats are in a close battle for second, though even here we're looking at a sub-regional race: the NDP in Vancouver itself, the Conservatives further out.
The only regional lead the New Democrats hold in British Columbia is Vancouver Island, where they are narrowly edging out the Conservatives. But look at the Greens here - they are certainly in the race in this part of the province.
The Liberals are clearly running second in Calgary by this measure, but are in a closer race with the New Democrats in and around Edmonton.
The definitions that Wikipedia had for the regions of Saskatchewan were not very satisfying, and I suspect they are a relic of the old urban-rural seats the province used to have. With their definitions, the Conservatives lead in both the south and the north, with the Liberals and NDP in a close race for second in the south (which includes Regina) and the NDP ensconced alone in second place in the north (which includes Saskatoon).
A more reasonable regional breakdown would be between rural and urban Saskatchewan. What I have done here is define Regina and Saskatoon as the six ridings with those cities in their names. When we do that, we see the race is much closer, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of the NDP and the Liberals not too far behind. In the rest of Saskatchewan, the Conservative lead is not challenged.
The Liberals have the edge in Ottawa, suburban Toronto, central Toronto, and Brampton - Mississauga - Oakville. Only in central Toronto do the New Democrats supplant the Conservatives for second place.
The Tories, meanwhile, are in front in eastern Ontario, central Ontario, Hamilton - Burlington - Niagara, midwestern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. In these regions their main opponent is less consistent. The Liberals are second in eastern, central, and midwestern Ontario, while the NDP is vying for that position with the Liberals in the southwest and the Niagara Escarpment.
The New Democrats are only in first place, and in this case they are tied with the Tories, in northern Ontario. And even there the Liberals are only two points behind.
Southern Durham - York is a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
They are also in a close race with the New Democrats in eastern Montreal and Montérégie, south of the metropolis.
The NDP's support is relatively uniform, and in a divided landscape they are ahead in central Quebec and Laurentides - Outaouais - Northern Quebec. In the Eastern Townships they are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives.
The Tories have the edge in eastern Quebec, Côte-Nord - Saguenay, and Quebec City, generally where they are expected to pick up seats. Their lead in eastern Quebec is a bit distorted by the region stretching to the south shore to Lévis.
Finally, the Bloc Québécois is ahead nowhere in the province, though is not far behind in central Quebec, eastern Montreal, and the Montérégie.
The Liberals lead in all four, but have a closer race in New Brunswick, where the Conservatives are strongest.
Let's try to break it down a little more. In Newfoundland and Labrador, for instance, the Liberals would be ahead in Avalon and St. John's with 43% to 34% for the NDP and 17% for the Conservatives. In the rest of the province, that would be 67% for the Liberals, 19% for the Conservatives, and 9% for the NDP.
In Nova Scotia, the Liberals would be ahead of the NDP in Halifax with 47% to 28%, with the Conservatives behind at 16%. On Cape Breton, it would be 64% for the Liberals to 19% for the Tories and 10% for the NDP, while in the rest of Nova Scotia the Liberals would be ahead of the Conservatives with 46% to 30%, with the NDP at 15%.
And in New Brunswick, the Liberals would be ahead in the urban ridings (Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John) with 43% to 31% for the Tories and 17% for the NDP, with the margin narrower in the rest of the province, with 40% for the Liberals and 32% for the Conservatives to 19% for the NDP.
Local battlegrounds
Looking at the map this way, we get a different picture of the electoral race. Simplified, there are three battleground provinces: British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. But breaking it down by region, we see that there are many more battlegrounds.
The Liberals and Conservatives are fighting over the Fraser Valley and Southern Lower Mainland in British Columbia, Calgary in Alberta, Winnipeg in the Prairies, the outlying areas of the GTA in Ontario, and New Brunswick in Atlantic Canada.
The Liberals and NDP are contesting central Toronto and northern Ontario, as well as the francophone areas around Montreal and St. John's in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The NDP and Conservatives are at odds too, over Vancouver Island (where the Greens are also present), urban Saskatchewan, southwestern and northern Ontario, central Quebec and Quebec City.
And some parts of the country, particularly in Quebec but also parts of Ontario and British Columbia, have areas where three (or four!) parties can pose as legitimate winners.
It makes for a complicated electoral map - one that we usually only get to see from 30,000 feet. Zoom in and the picture gets fuzzier, but an impression of how things are lining up can be seen.
50 comments:
Three quick questions:ReplyDelete
1) In the aggregate polls you show the weighting by polls in a bar rather than a number. A number would make it easier to establish how much your aggregate is EKOS driven. Right now it would look to be over 50% with Forum accounting for say 20%. Would you add the weight number please.
2) You have Nanos listed as having done polls. I have not found these polls that you have included in the aggregate. You are not using the preferred PM that is the only pick one of Nanos polls, are you? Not a question of who would you vote for.
and one more: You have the Liberals taking over 50% of the vote in Avalon, NL despite kicking Scott Andrews out and likely facing a law suit from him for lose of job on hearsay non-legal, non-scrutinized accusation.. AND the CPC actually getting significantly more votes in 2011 in the new boundaries of Avalon.
You have this with 95% certainty that the Liberals retain this poll. I can't imagine that the Liberals polling in NL has increase since Danny Williams ran the ABC campaign. Has it?Replies
Nanos released some national voting intentions numbers a few weeks ago in their weekly index report.Delete
Yes, the Liberals polling in NL has increased substantially. Liberals took 47% in 2008 in NL, latest CRA poll has them at 64%. Other polls since end of November have them between 58% and 64%.
And I strongly doubt locals will be taking Andrews' side on this, but we'll see.
Are you implying that the folks in Avalon don't believe in due process and the rule of law?
Mr. Andrews was fired from his job with anonymous, hearsay accusations that did not stand up to scrutiny in any court.
Senator Colin Kenny is still political active as a senator who used to be Liberal despite far worse allegations that were not strong enough to convict him in a court of law although it did not make it to a court of law. He was cleared by a 3rd party investigation an a senate committee.
Rest assured, I'm quite confident that the good people of Avalon believe in due process and the rule of law.Delete
Seriously? You are coming with anonymous hearsay talking point on this site? An Independent inquiry is not anonymous hearsay.Delete
I expect the Lib vote will go up after Trudeau's excellent handling of the situation.
MP Andrews did say today that he was satisfied with the independent inquiry and its findings. Including that he needs to be more aware of this Newfoundland friendliness and that he has learned a great deal about personal space and the feelings of others.Delete
Unfortunately, it seems from media reports about what had triggered this inquiry is that this friendliness includes a bunch of unwanted behavior including following a woman home, forcing his way through her door, groping her, and grinding his pelvis against her, then later accusing her of being a c**k tease. I'd say that is most unfriendly. No doubt this has not been tested in court but he seems to see this behavior is a problem is accepting the inquiry and not contesting its main summary points.
I seriously doubt that this issue is going to change how people vote in any way. But really parties dropping MP's from their party is an internal matter, it does not require a court of law to make findings. There are a number of conservatives who have been booted out as well without any criminal convictions, and of course one even made justice minister actually having actually broken laws previously....so....
Eric it's really odd how Ottawa is this Liberal bastion in Eastern Ontario and once you are outside the city the CPC completely dominate even with some really lousy candidates.Delete
Your opinion of the candidates aside, that isn't very odd. The Liberals generally do better in cities and the Conservatives generally do better outside of them.Delete
- Anonymous18 March, 2015 13:37
Eric, Thank you again for an excellent discussion.ReplyDelete
I agree the numbers have pretty much flattened out in the first few months of 2015.
The flattening may indicate that the CPC has mined out what could be gained with C-51 and tough on crime. It seems they need something more to get to 39.6%
We are in interesting times.Replies
Ekos that provides over 50% of the aggregate has the CPC at the same place they were when they won the majority.
last election ekos had the Cons a 33.9 to 34.5 in the last 5 polls before the election.
In the last 6 polls over the last month n=18,000 EKos has the Cons at 33,32,31,32,33,35 average 32.7.
In answer to the Statistics hypothesis:
The level support for the Cons is at the same level for the last month as it was at the last election.
This hypothesis has been proven true by EKOS.
BCVoR, you use a lot of numbers and mathmatical words, but you fail to show equalivence. First for all, the last 6 EKOS polls were not in the last month, but released since February, and those numbers were 32.9, 32.2, 31.1, 32.3, 32.0, 35.0, average 32.58.Delete
Next, only one (the oldest) of those numbers is equal or higher to the lowest of your 5 polls prior to the last elections. The average is a 1.3% less than the lowest.
Equally, your final 5 EKOS polls for 2011 are wrong, being 34.6, 34.5, 34.8, 34.0, 33.9 average 34.36.
Finally, your n count is per item not culmative. Statistically speaking, the CPC has significantly less support than in 2011.
BCVofR it's not the first time you are trying to compare the results of the Cons. VS 2011. However, they is nothing similar. In 2011, unless exception, Conservative were always way ahead of the Liberals. No one had any doubt they would form the government. Yes they did have bad polls but many of them between 36 and 38 and even a pool at 43 a few months before elections. This time, with all the bad press with Trudeau since a few months… they didn't had one pool over 35. If Conservative remain in power, so far, a Majority government is fairly unlikely. IN 2011, 39% for Cons. was a surprise, however they did had pool around that from time to time. Since 2012, Cons. had no pool over 35…. Basically, different story! They actually need something more if they want to re-live 2011 election and get a majority. But it will be hard since many peoples lost faith in them so they need a way to get that trust back.Delete
Using your numbers Ekos latest polls has a mean of 32.58 with a std deviation of 1.31972Delete
the 95% range for this data would be 32.58 +/- 2 std deviations or 29.94 to 35.21.
Hey the mean of 34.36 plus all the EKOS polls taken just pre election 2011 fall into this range...19 time out of 20.
Fairly certain that the Conservative support has not statistically changed from last election until now according to EKOS.
Arguing numbers with BCVoR is a questionable use of time. BCVoR's conclusions come before the numbers, so the only salient point is whether the rationalizations are logically coherent. Sometimes they are.Delete
Unfortunately, that is not the right test, but for future reference it's 1.96, not 2 std.dev. Neither the margins of error nor the std.dev. of the 2011 number were taken into consideration.
To go beyond your misuse of statistics, just to put a final nail in this mordum argument, if you look at the 4 current polls in the last month (your words, but not your actions) and the 4 last polls before the 2011 election (for equal sample sizes), you get 32.125 support now with 0.75 std.dev. and 34.475 with a 0.34 std.dev. Using your personal choice, you get 33.625, which is remains less than two std.dev. below the 2011 polling average.
@2015 FederalDelete
You don't seem to understand what I am saying.
1) EKOS polls dominate Eric's analysis. It accounts for well over 50% of the input to the Eric's seat generator and analysis.
Can you agree on this fact?
2) EKOS did polling right before the 2011 election.
These polls showed the Cons with about 34% in the polls closest to the actual election.
Can you agree on this fact?
3) Right now in EKOS latest polls EKOS has the Cons with an average of 32.7 and a range of 31-35.
Can you agree on this fact?
4) Here is the big one. The difference between 34% and 32.7% is well within the margin of error.
You have seen Eric (and Frank Graves and any pollster whose analysis you read) who you respect call this difference a statistical tie.
Do you agree with this fact?
5) Finally, and here is the big one, is that according to the EKOS polling the level of Cons support is at the same level that EKOS found it right before the last election.
I did not say the polls were the same... The Liberals are obviously polling much better and the NDP much worse.....
but according to EKOS the Cons have the same support as they did the last week before the may 2 , 2011 election.
+1 to Thingamabob...this is about the only thing I do dislike about reading comments on the site, partisans positions staked out, and then searching for rationalizations to support predetermined conclusions...In which no evidence counter to that predetermined conclusion will actually do any good...Delete
I'm not sure why so much effort/convincing is being put into using past results to pre-determine future events in the same of supporting one cause over another. If you want to look to past event, when Kim Campbell took over the PCs they were polling pretty close to the then-Chretien opposition Libs until just before the election campaign got underway. I think we all know how that turned out. Even if the Reform/PC split of the day didn't exist, the right-of-centre parties still would have been trounced either way as in very few ridings that the Liberals won, was the combined Reform + PC tally > the Libs' victory. So based on all this historical data, I'm going to go out on a limb (while rolling my eyes) and say one of the NDP/Liberals/Conservatives will form the next government....you heard it hear first!Delete
I would dispute points #2 through #4, which leads to point #5.
#2 - EKOS polling before 2011 was 34.6, 34.5, 34.8, 34.0, and 33.9. The average of the latest 3 was 34.6%, the latest 4 was 34.5%, and the latest 5 was 34.4%. Take your pick, but use a real number.
#3 - EKOS polling since February is 32.9, 32.2, 31.1, 32.3, 32.0, and 35.0. The average of the latest 3, 4 or 5 is 32.1% and of all 6 is 32.6%. Again, you can selectively pick the highest number, but don't inflate it beyond that.
#4 - The difference between 32.1% (now) and 34.5% (2011) is 2.4%, rather than the 1.3% you claim. And beyond current stated MOE of 1.8%.
BCVR said "....but according to EKOS the Cons have the same support as they did the last week before the may 2 , 2011 election."Delete
Except the Cons were polling around 38% and the Libs were polling around 20% by Namos just before the 2011 election. Right now Namos has Libs 1 point in the lead. Nanos was very accurate in the 2011 election.
Not looking so good for the Cons in 2015.
+1 to ThingamabobDelete
The Cons are polling much worse than 2011 as far as Nanos is concerned. 7 points as a matter of fact. Nanos results were off by 0.9%. Also according gto Nanos,.Libs are polling 14% higher than just before the 2011 election.
Not looking good for the CPC.
When comparing two polls, you need to account for the MOE of both.Delete
If one poll says 40 plus or minus 3, and the other says 36 plus or minus 2, they overlap.
Interesting addition to the CBC piece. Thanks and on to a Liberal victory !ReplyDelete
- Anonymous19 March, 2015 10:05
I am curious about why you have made specific divisions in Ontario.ReplyDelete
Southern Durham - York: What counts as Southern Durham, and why connect it to York region?
Barmpton - Mississauga - Oakville vs. Burlington - Hamilton - Niagara. Where does Milton sit in this group? Why not Peel Region vs. Halton Region vs. Hamilton - Niagara. Does it make any difference?
Eric An off topic question:ReplyDelete
Is there significant support for Coule pas chez nous?
Student leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois donated $25K from his book on his last action.... not sales of his book but a literary prize to fund this action and then seems to have raised another $400K online.
You personally have an idea of how hard it is to raise money online.
This should be raising all sorts of alarms as the BQ got between 400k-900k in tax deducible contribution in a full year of fund raising when they were the largest federal political organization in Quebec.
Any idea who is providing the money? Unions? Georges Soros? Professors? The Koch Brothers :) ?
They are using the money to have a anti-pipeline protest in Quebec on April 11. They are trying to get Mulcair and Trudeau to stop the pipeline.
This could be a major event.
It is political suicide (ask former BC NDP leader and almost premier Adrian Dix) to come out fully against the pipeline.
In today's climate of terrorist threats and much more open security concerns there will be more of a reaction and less public acceptance and tolerance to any kind of Black Bloc violence.
Any thoughts as to the political impact and what to expect?
The student won last time but in 2014 PQ who caved in to the students was booted solidly out of office with historic low support and an almost Conservative (by Quebec standards) Colliard and significant support to free enterprise CAQ were put in charge.Replies
I think anyone who wants to win seats in Alberta will need to be semi-pro pipeline thus the Liberals and NDP will waffle on it. I suspect many BC seats will demand local MP's to be against it - a big plus for the Green Party and a negative for the NDP/Liberals while the Conservative voters will probably not care - seems nothing will shake that 30% core support for them. In Quebec being anti-pipeline should be a big seller. I know up here in Northern Ontario it will be (lots of risk, little reward from that pipeline plus maybe higher natural gas prices as you remove a pipeline for that and change it to oil and that'll cut supply). Expect the pipeline issue to grow during the campaign. This election how each party reacts during the campaign to core issues could change everything.Delete
The recent epidemic of oil-hauling train derailments should increase pipeline support. Pipelines are a vastly safer way to transport oil per ton-mile.Delete
The oil is going to get produced, moved, sold, and burned. The question is, do you want it to blow up the occasional town along the way, or would you rather it not do that?
I think you are out to lunch regarding the Liberal numbers in BC. Way out to lunch.ReplyDeleteReplies
Wow, geez. I think I have to re-evaluate everything. Thanks.Delete
They are a little low but not that far off.Delete
Yes clearly Eric you need to ignore the polling and just go with your gut. Because you know picking numbers out of ones....is going to work better. Seriously though polling numbers can be wrong the output is only as good as the input...but why would anyone blame Eric for that. Add random pulled out of the air correction factor based on gut feeling is not an analysis I would bother reading.Delete
With all this EKOS talk, I opened up their full report and interestingly, they break down support by current vote intention for leader approval/disapproval. It's quite interesting when you take out the own-party support. Trudeau is 35.2%, 51.8%, 12.9% for approval, disapproval, unknown (MOE 3.5%). Mulclair is 42.5%, 41.7%, 15.8% (MOE 3.4%) and Harper is 14.6%, 74.4%, 11.0% (MOE 3.7%).ReplyDelete
Assuming leadership approval correlates to undecides voting and/or changing voting preference, does this mean the CPC are much more limited in upswing potential? Statistically speaking Greens, Liberals, and Undecides like Trudeau and Conservatives dislike him. Greens, Liberals, and NDP like Mulclair and Conservatives dislike him. Conservatives like Harper and every other group dislikes him.
Aside from the normal difficulties of small sample size at this level, I'm wondering how you feel about the reliability of polls overall given:ReplyDelete
1 - growth of mobile-only households that aren't contacted by polling firms (since this is a non-random characteristic, there is reason to believe that the voting intentions of cellphone-only households could be materially different from landline households.)
2 - lack of updates to weighting information thanks to the elimination of the long-form census. (Harder to correct for non-random non-responses.)Replies
Right off the bat, these numbers above are based on the riding projections, so they aren't polls where sample size comes into play.Delete
Polling companies, for the most part, are calling cell phones so this shouldn't be an issue. There may be less of a response rate among cell phones, though, which could potentially be a problem.
As for your second question, it is my understanding that the mandatory questions on the census would still provide enough information for pollsters to weight their responses.
Hi Eric,ReplyDelete
With the strong liberal numbers in Nova Scotia is Peter Mackay at risk of losing his seat. Aside from 2011 results which were devastating for liberals across the country, Peter Mackay has only got victories between 40-46% the greens put up a good showing when the liberals worked out an agreement with them.
Now with a strong liberal leader the province has warmed too, I am not here arguing Justin Trudeau's merits but it can not be argued he is very popular. Combined with this popularity, the strong liberal poll numbers province wide, the current defeat of the NDP government and a poor showing so far by Mr. Muclair, is this a seat the liberals could put into play and should Peter Mackay be nervous?
Are there seats in play for the liberals in Calgary?ReplyDeleteReplies
Threehundredeight.com provides a riding-by-riding breakdown. There are five.Delete
Looking at these regional breakdowns I think it fairly unlikely 5 ridings are really "in play". With a 13% lead over the Grits the Tories are odds on favour to sweep the region yet again. The one exception may be Calgary-Skyview in the City's Northeast where a popular M.L.A. is running for the Liberals but, he is up against a little giant in Deepak Ohbrai who is well known and well liked among the South Asian community who make up a large cohort of the riding's population.Delete
Over all these "local" numbers are good news for the Tories and bad news for everyone else with the exception of the Greens on Vancouver Island and BC more generally. From my vantage point it sure looks like Harper is on pace to win a second majority government.
I decided to try the same exercise to compare our results. So, after quite a bit of time, I have those results! Generally speaking, the differences are not major, but there are a few. Sorry for the formatting, it's difficult to do in a comment.ReplyDelete
In the Atlantic, I have:
In Québec, I have: BQ
Eastern 26,9 31,5 14,2 5,3 22,4
Côte-Nord – Sag. 19,4 32,0 22,6 5,2 20,8
Québec City 22,9 28,8 27,0 5,0 16,0
Central 23,8 19,5 29,0 5,9 22,0
Eastern Townships 24,3 26,8 25,1 5,1 18,6
Montérégie 27,4 13,4 30,2 5,2 22,3
Eastern Montréal 29,7 10,2 29,9 4,7 24,7
Western Montréal 45,1 24,4 15,1 5,9 9,4
N. Montréal – Laval 43,3 13,2 20,6 5,0 17,3
Laurent – Out – North 25,7 15,1 36,3 5,2 18,3
In Ontario, I have:
Ottawa 45,3 30,7 14,9 6,5
Eastern 34,4 45,2 11,9 6,2
Central 26,0 48,0 11,4 8,6
S. Durham and York 40,7 41,3 9,9 5,3
Suburban Toronto 46,4 26,8 19,6 5,2
Central Toronto 45,5 12,8 32,9 5,8
Bram – Mississ – Oak44,6 36,9 10,2 5,7
Ham – Burling – Nia 31,0 38,0 21,6 6,2
Midwestern 35,1 42,7 13,0 6,7
Southwestern 30,5 35,8 25,5 5,6
Northern 30,1 26,6 33,9 6,8
In the Prairies, I have:
Rural Manitoba 34,1 41,6 13,5 8,0
Winnipeg 44,4 28,0 17,6 8,0
Southern Sask. 28,7 41,9 20,0 7,1
Northern Sask. 22,0 39,5 29,0 6,9
Regina & Saskatoon 28,2 33,8 28,1 7,2
Rest of Sask. 22,5 47,6 20,8 6,9
In Alberta, I have:
Rural Alberta 25,3 53,8 10,8 5,8
Edmonton and env. 22,1 47,9 21,9 4,6
Calgary 30,6 46,9 9,8 9,7
In British Columbia, I have:
B.C. Interior 24,2 36,9 25,9 9,9
Fraser Val–S-Low Mainl 33,1 38,4 17,8 7,6
Van. – N-Low Mainl 37,5 24,0 26,4 9,2
Vancouver Island 22,5 22,1 31,0 21,6
@Thierry, any chance you can do an Ottawa-Gatineau/Outaouais breakdown as a true reflection of the NCR? Les Laurenties and Nord du Québec have virtually nothing in common with the Outaouais.ReplyDeleteReplies
Ask, and you shall receive! No kidding, I, too, find that "region" a bit strange, as Laurentides would be better off with Lanaudières, Outaouais on its own (speaking of Québec, as a larger part of Canada, it does fit in nicely with Ottawa) and the North... with Laurentides and Lanaudières, I guess. Or on its own, but it has few seats. Anyway, here goes:Delete
Gatineau/Outaouais 28,6 17,2 38,1 4,4 11,6
Ottawa/Gat/Out 37,9 18,6 30,6 5,7 5,8
Ott+suburbs/Gat/Out 39,7 26,2 22,6 5,8 3,9
I find the Newfoundland stat quite interesting. The only reason Newfoundland is doing well and is a have Province is due to Hibernia - which was put into place by the Conservative Mulroney. I guess its a matter of what have you done for me lately.ReplyDeleteReplies
So if Mulroney didn't buy the 8.5% stake in the development project three months before leaving office, then the other 91.5% would have just thrown in the towel and never developed it after oil took off this millennium? They only became a Have province in 2008, so it could have been either a Liberal or Harper claiming to be responsible if it hadn't been for Mulroney.Delete
I think the projection for Cumberland-Colchester will have to be updated from 2% Other vote, as Bill Casey has announced he is coming out of retirement to run as Independent.ReplyDelete
Right you are - the article I read on this was rather vague.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous27 March, 2015 06:58
On Atlantic Canada ridings:ReplyDelete
1. BCVoR is incoherent re Avalon. It requires no "due process" to throw a candidate nomination away, nor to ditch someone from caucus. Under the law it's entirely a party leader decision. It's bad law, in a bad electoral system, that has bad results. But there's lots of precedent for ditching candidates based on sniff tests, however unfair or vague, a leader of any Canadian federal party is a dictator of who runs.
2. Re: Cumberland-Colchester this race will be decided on candidate factors, period. Bill Casey is running Liberal and this is a bellwether case for deciding if the future of NS progressive Conservatism is basically to merge with the Liberals as in BC and Quebec. If Casey wins, there will be more provincial PCs joining the Liberals, as the NS PCs will likely never hold office again. That because the federal Cons have made it near impossible to recruit good provincial candidates.
3. Central Nova is also an interesting personality race with MacKay up against an anti-Harper veteran, in fact one of the ones Rob Anders gravely insulted.
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Animal Protection >
ALF Foes
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Obstructionists: Identifying and Handling Them
First, I must confess that over the last few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's greatest stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate who is more devoted to 'order' than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says, 'I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can't agree with your methods of direct action'; who paternalistically feels that he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by the myth of time and who constantly advised the Negro to wait until a 'more convenient season.' Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will." - Martin Luther King Jr., excerpt from his April 16, 1963 letter from Birmingham City Jail.
Infiltrators, informers, and agent provocateurs are not the only threats our movement faces. There's also the obstructionists: activists who prevent others from doing the actions necessary to bring about real and significant change.
Obstructionists can be found in every movement. Martin Luther King Jr. called them "moderates" and Malcolm X called them "Uncle Toms." As King's quote from above says, obstructionists hinder the movement more than its opponents.
Their harm arises out of the fact that they are "one of us." Because of this, good activists often capitulate to the obstructionist's demands of inaction or ineffective action to maintain movement unity. Movement unity is an important goal to strive for, but it should not be achieved at the expense of the animals. In opposing most actions, obstructionists also tie up good activists' time and energy in argument. These repeated and unproductive verbal fights frustrate and dishearten the good activists, and can drive them to burnout.
Because of the harms obstructionists cause, it is important we recognize them and deal with them appropriately. The following is a list of characteristic traits of an obstructionist.
1. Despise many non-violent tactics. Obstructionists pretend to hate controversy and ill-will leading them to argue against direct action like civil disobedience. They fear protests might get "out-of-control" so they take precautions to ensure it doesn't. They might not allow chanting, or they might appoint protest monitors to keep activists "orderly". The police and other authorities are often their best friends. Obstructionists obey all commands of the police and have no problem giving them whatever information they request.
Strangely enough, although obstructionists act like they oppose controversy and ill-will, they only seem to hate it when directed at animal abusers, for they typically have no problem verbally thrashing good activists who suggest the group take other, more effective actions.
2. Overly concerned with image. One of the obstructionists main arguments against effective actions includes their desire to maintain a "good" image. They fear direct action makes them look "extreme", and "radical." They have volumes of anecdotal evidence which they recite to show that direct action harms our image.
Certainly there is some room and need to discuss image. We don't want us, as messengers, to distract from the message. But at the same time, we must not let concerns of image unnecessarily waste precious time. When considering the impact of an action on our image, we should ask the question: Does this action make us look committed, determined, sincere, and unwilling to tolerate animal abuse? or does it make us look weak, apathetic, and apologetic? By answering this simple question we can determine whether to do the action, or work on organizing a better one.
Furthermore, the animal rights movement is not a public relations firms. We are educators, and in order to educate we need to agitate. Only by waking people out of their slumber of complacency will we be able to get their attention and show them the horrors of animal abuse. Large animal- abusing, environment-raping, human-oppressing companies need P.R. Firms because they have to cover-up their destructive practices and sugar- coat their atrocities. We, on the other hand, have nothing to hide. So don't spend too much time worrying about image, and be wary of those who do.
3. Must have total control. Obstructionists must always have their way. Non-participation with actions they disagree with is not good enough for them. They have a burning desire to ensure those actions don't happen. Yelling, crying, guilt-trips, abuse of power, lies, back-stabbing and playing on your sympathy are some of the artillery obstructionists use to get you to obey their will.
Certainly everyone has a right to their opinion, but compromise between activists should be a give and take proposition. You will find obstructionists always take and never give.
4. Sabotage good activists. Obstructionists often try to minimize the effectiveness of good activists. They do this for a variety of reasons. Good activists make them look bad by making more sacrifices for animal, which results in more positive change for animals. Unfortunately, instead of trying to do more to help animals, obstructionists prefer to degrade good activists in an attempt to make themselves look better. Other reasons for obstructionists to sabotage good activists includes they are jealous, power- hungry, or have an overly-developed ego.
Obstructionists attack good activists in many ways. They prevent them from getting the resources they need to be effective, kick them out of the organization, paint their successes as tragedies that hurt the movement, spread damaging rumors about them, and use other under-handed ploys to regain control and get their way.
5. Weak on issues. Although this is not always the case, they are often weak on the issues. They argue against veganism, make excuses for animal abusers, and despise direct action activists more than animal abusers.
Unfortunately, not all obstructionists are as clearly defined as the descriptions given above. They definitely work on a continuum and sometimes it is hard to tell if they are an obstructionist or just a naive activist. Therefore, the below rules on handling obstructionists can be applied when working with all activists. These simple rules will help minimize the negative effects of obstructionists, while encouraging movement unity.
1. Work together when possible. Work with other activists -- obstructionists or not -- on issues and actions that you agree with. Don't be afraid to work with them and support their actions which help animals. Hard-core obstructionists will often refuse to work with you, treating you like some kind of slime mold instead of graciously accepting your help. Regardless of their unwillingness to work with you, continue to offer your help and support for their effective activities. It should be the obstructionists who prevent movement unity, not you.
2. Expect compromise to go both ways. As animal activists in a diverse movement, we must realize that not every activist can get their way all the time. When working with other activists be prepared to make compromises (on actions NOT Animals!!!), but make sure they are willing to reciprocate. If they are unwilling to do this, it might be time to part ways.
3. Follow your conscience. The best advice when dealing with activists is to follow your conscience. Even if it leads you in directions that are uncharted or scary, it will not lead you astray. If the group you started has been infiltrated by obstructionists, your conscience might tell you to leave it and start over. It might not always lead you in an easy direction, but it will lead you down rewarding paths. Don't fear following its lead.
4. Speak the truth, but don't get hostile. Obstructionists are quick to anger. Respond to their yelling by calmly stating your ideas, arguments, and opinions. Their inaccuracies and distorted half-truths must be confronted and corrected, but don't meet their hostility with similar anger. Our actions need to show that any disunity in the movement is not caused by direct action activists. We must always be willing to work with others, even those we disagree with. However, we cannot let ourselves become obstructionists' doormats.
5. If you are an obstructionist . . . Some people reading this might recognize some or all of the traits of an obstructionist in themselves. If this is the case, it is a good time to evaluate your involvement in the movement and your relationship with other activists. However, since all activists should strive to better themselves, I invite all readers to take some time
What are your priorities?
Where do the animals fall into those priorities?
How much are you willing to sacrifice for the animals?
Do you treat other activists with respect?
Why or why not?
Does your involvement with the movement stem from ulterior motives?
What personal fears do you have about your involvement with the movement or direct action?
If your fears are realized, would life really end?
Do you spread damaging gossip about other activists?
What three promises could you make or actions could you do to become a better activist?
After taking some time to answer these questions, please take action to make yourself a selfless activist for animals who treats other activists with the respect they deserve.
Merritt Clifton: Obstructionist Extraordinaire Clifton is a perfect example of an obstructionist. He vehemently denounces being an animal rights activist (which is true), even though he has no problem giving activists "pointers" and explaining to them their "mistakes". Instead of an activist, he claims to be an unbiased "journalist" who believes in the humane ethic.
Clifton's paper Animal People has spread his obstructionist ideas to all corners of North America's animal movement. In it, he defends businesses like Proctor & Gamble, McDonalds, and Sea World; rants about the "psychotic" A.L.F. activists; and pleads for activists to work with abusers to bring about change for the animals.
Clifton, with the help of his paper, has helped lull the movement into a complacent slumber -- our outrage was pacified, ineffective campaigns were looked upon as the animals' salvation, and direct action was dismissed as extremist and ineffective. This is a good example of the potential dangers that obstructionists pose to our movement.
In accordance with obstructionist tendencies, Clifton opposes the non- violent direct action of the A.L.F. Clifton's fanatical hatred of the Animal Liberation Front is legendary. He considers the A.L.F. to be "nightriders", "psychopaths", and "terrorists". He compares them to the Ku Klux Klan, saying they operate on the same principle that "might makes right".
He down-plays the A.L.F.'s successes and assumes the worst. When the A.L.F. liberated 1,200 animals from the University of Arizona in 1989, he argues that the A.L.F. torched the labs -- mice and all! Not even the vivisectors entertain such a ridiculous idea. Clifton still doesn't seem to understand that members of the A.L.F. believe in animal rights, and would not harm animals.
True to obstructionist's principles, Clifton's main argument against the A.L.F. is that they hurt our image. Clifton argues this image problem makes: abusers less willing to implement humane changes, the media less willing to run stories on animal issues, and the public less willing to adopt humane lifestyle. In Clifton's words, "[coverage of A.L.F. activities] tends to increase the perception that animal rights activists are terrorists, crazy, and dangerous."
Clifton, although willing to bend over back-wards to speak well of the abusers, apparently has no problem trying to destroy good direct action activists. As any educated activist knows, you do not spread rumors that other activists are infiltrators without hard evidence (read War at Home; Covert Actions Against U.S. Activists and What We Can Do About It by Brian Glick), or rumors linking people with illegal activities. However, he has publicly argued on the internet that two people involved with the production of No Compromise are agent provocateurs on the basis that they support direct action. Clifton has also publicly suggested that three No Compromise activists, whom he mentioned by name, were involved in certain specific A.L.F. actions which none of them had been arrested or convicted for. I have not repeated the names of the people he has tried to denigrate because those rumors are nothing more than damaging lies which must be buried.
As someone who claims to have been involved with environmental, peace, and animal issues for over two decades, Clifton should know better. I think he does know better. And it is precisely because he knows how harmful these rumors can be that he uses them. Direct action threatens his perceived "empire" that he has created with Animal People and he wants radical actions stopped. Since he doesn't recognize the fact that direct action stems from committed people who demand change now, he is attacks the messenger that reports on direct action, No Compromise, by attacking those people involved in its production.
Clifton is also weak on the issues. For starters, he admits to not being vegan while traveling. Equally egregious, he defends Sea World, Proctor & Gamble, and McDonalds. He argues that Sea World has the world's largest tanks, rescues dolphins, promotes environmental education, and has not captured animals from the wild for over a decade. I guess we should just ignore the fact that the animals are still imprisoned and that any tank, no matter how large, is still a toilet when compared to the ocean.
When defending the vivisectors, Proctor & Gamble, Clifton argues that P&G have donated $45 million to developing alternatives to animal tests, reduced animal use by 56%, and in 1984 made a corporate commitment to phase out all animal tests as quickly as possible. But if P&G is so good why is it that more than a decade after their "corporate commitment", they continue to slice, dice, and sacrifice animals for profit?
And how could Clifton possibly defend McDonalds? Because the golden arches signed an agreement to only purchase brutalized carcasses from factory farmers that meet the humane standards set up by some meat promoting organization. Well, hooray for the largest animal killer in the world! Hey Merritt, sign me up for the Humane Auschwitz Now campaign!
With friends like Clifton, the animals don't need enemies. There are many obstacles in our way towards animal liberation -- the abusers, the authorities, infiltrators, and agents. But we must also remember that even those who claim to be friends of the animals can also be obstacles. Just be sure to always place the interests of animals foremost in your mind and follow your conscience when determining what is right and wrong. Think for yourself and don't be afraid to rock the boat if that's where your conscience dictates.
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Earring Collection by Mano y Metal
{ q u o t e }
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{ i n s p i r a t i o n }
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{ m o r e }
- view all Mano y Metal earrings currently available here.
{ s t a t s }
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♥ Big round earrings measure 2inches in outer circumference.
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♥ Measures: Around 3.5" in length from hook to bottom.
♥ Please view photo of earrings being worn for size approximation.
{ h a n d m a d e }
This pair of earrings start as a sheet of aluminum! I begin by cutting the large circles out of a piece of aluminum, then I measure and cut out the center of each piece of metal circles and then there is a drill involved, a file, creativity, hand stamping action, oxidation, a hammer, love, polishing and boom! The pair of earrings you see pictured above is born. I then attach the earrings to surgical stainless steel earring hooks & alas, the earrings are ready to be worn and added to your earring collection!♥
- Handmade takes Time! Please allow a minimum of 7-10 *business (*weekends & holidays do not apply) days for the handmade production of the earrings to be handmade for you before it ships.
- I do NOT hand stamp on the back of any items.
- I do NOT customize any earrings at this time. Thank you!


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As a Passport Advantage Online customer you have secure access to Passport Advantage Online which provides you with the latest program information plus access to a wide array of tools to help you manage your Passport Advantage accounts.
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- Learn how to set and manage your Notification, download, media and IBM Support preferences (PDF, 375KB)
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- Quotes -- view and order quotes prepared by your sales representative
- Popular Offerings catalog --view the top-selling IBM software products. The catalog functionality includes search by product description, search by product category and search by license type (e.g. License & Software Subscription and Support). You may purchase directly with IBM at Suggested Retail Price (SRP) or send your order to a Business Partner.
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EPA-certified wood-burning stoves produce an average of 70 percent less particulate emissions than their old, uncertified counterparts. If your stove is more than 20 years old, it's probably time for an update. Find a certified professional who can install your new stove properly (so you get maximum efficiency and minimal pollution) through the National Fireplace Institute(nficertified.org).
The biggest surfaces in your home, such as the floors and walls, affect air quality the most. Consider installing hardwood floors (especially a sustainably harvested wood, such as bamboo) instead of synthetic carpets, which use petrochemicals. If repainting, consider using paints low in volatile organic compounds (VOCs) or, even better, a natural plaster finish.
Grouped together on a tray and filled with leaves and flowers, weathered bottles and jars make an easy table dressing. Collect your own bottles of various shapes and sizes over time (mustard jars, perfume bottles, and jelly jars all work well) or salvage some for just pennies at thrift stores. Randomly fill some of the containers with leaves and flowers and place them on a serving tray or platter, packing the jars tightly together.
If worries about fireplace fumes leave you cold, warm up to recycled fire logs, which steer clear of dangerous toxins such as petroleum and paraffin wax found in traditional "logs."
It's becoming easier all the time to find stylish sources for greener furnishings. Q Collection, for instance, a manufacturer of eco-friendly decor, was founded on the principle that serious design need not compromise the environment -- and vice versa. The company uses sustainably grown woods, natural fibers, and recycled glass to produce everything from the club chair at left to accent pillows and lamps.
Single- and even some double-pane clear-glass windows can force heating and cooling systems to work overtime. Energy Star-qualified windows with insulating glazes and gas fills (which improve thermal performance) deliver the best results -- as much as 2,200 pounds of emissions saved.
Computers, cell-phone chargers, and other electronics continue to use power even when you turn them off. Nationally, this creates the annual emissions equivalent of 17 power plants. To simplify, plug items into a power strip that you can use as a master switch to turn off when these appliances are not in use.


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Their eyes shine in the moon's light as they fight. Their movements are fluid, smooth, and predatory. Lean, taunt muscles lay beneath different colors of fur and sharp incisors are visible beneath black gums. Blood spatters over their beautiful coats and color the ground red as they snap, tear, and wound each other.
Fur standing on end, you approach the two groups as they pause and separate as they take notice of your presence. Two pairs of eyes stand out to you and unnerve you. Both seemed to draw the respect out of you without your consent as you lower your head and tuck your tail between your legs. Power radiated from them both, and you're unsure whether it was the large, dark grey male with golden eyes, or the black female with bright green eyes that had the strongest air to them. They both stood across from each other, and large groups of other wolves and Werelings in human forms stand on each side behind them. All of their eyes bore into you and you stop as you stand before the two obvious leaders.
Your muscles tense and they begin to shake as your wolf side slowly draws you towards one side, your true nature, good or evil, slowly reveals itself as you make your decision. Which side will you choose? Will you choose the path of light and good? Or the path of dark and evil?
Venantium or Eternals?


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citifari - Central Park photo tour
Saturday, January 3, 2015 from 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM (EST)
Event Details
Citifari Central Park tour combines views of the bridges, lakes and skyline that make Central Park such a unique location.
Citifari tour starts next to the entrance of Apple Store at the corner of 59th st. and 5th av., look for your photographer guide, he is the one wearing the white citifari hoodie.
- bring your best camera, a couple of lenses if you have (a standard zoom should be enough but you might want to be able to play a bit),
- remember to charge your battery and have a memory card that will allow for some 100 shots (~ 10 shots per spot),
- wear comfortable clothing and walking shoes according to the weather,
- most of the tour occurs outside, wear a hat and sunscreen during sunny days, or gloves, warm coat and shoes and a hat for colder days,
- bring some refreshments / snacks
- as it is customary in the US, if you like your tour, please tip your photographer guide accordingly
The tour should last between 2-1/2 hour and 3 hours and will end on Cherry Hill.
We look forward to citifaring with you.
- citifari team
learn more at www.citifari.com - contact us at email@example.com
When & Where
Central Park - Apple Store
767 5th Avenue
5th avenue and 59th st
New York,
Saturday, January 3, 2015 from 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM (EST)
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Join citifari's (www.citifari.com) professional New York City photographers for a compact and exclusive 2-1/2 hour tour. Our guides have diligently scouted the most unique vantage points for many of the city's famous landmarks - all for your benefit. During the citifari walking tour, they share with you these privileged corners of NYC along with various, must-have, techniques so you can shoot your own stunning photographs.
Your guide will direct you to the most appropriate location for each picture and then helps you:
decide on the right subject with the right lens,
choose the best angle and composition,
think about creative new ways to best use your camera's hidden settings.
You only need to bring your best camera and walking shoes.
Please contact us for more information.


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Quick Link: Take the Survey!
I love attending conferences. I love the networking, the exhibit halls, the sessions, and traveling to new locations. But there is something I have struggled with after each and every conference I've attended — what to do with the stuff I bring home. The notes, the handouts, the books, the swag. It's stuffed in drawers, stacked in piles and in some cases, I'm ashamed to admit, still sitting in the conference bags in my closet, untouched since I returned home.
You know how it is — you've been out of town for five days for a conference and you've got a ton of unpacking and laundry to do before you return to work and normal life the next day, if not that very day. I put the stack of conference materials on my desk, swearing I'll organize it all over the weekend, but what happens? I just keep moving that pile to the floor, to the bed, back to the desk. I throw the swag into a drawer and forget I have all those magnets, rulers, highlighters and pens after a few days.
So, I'm putting out the call here. Surely some of you have a better system. What's the answer? Do you take an extra day to organize all those materials? Are you paperless? Do you avoid the vendors or just the urge to accept all their goodies?
I have created a survey with questions about how you take in the conference experience and what you do with all the associated material once you get home. Please take a few moments to fill out this questionnaire. I plan to share the results here on my blog. I'm personally interested in this, of course, as I'm seeking solutions for my own post-conference disorganization. I've also helped plan conferences in the past and I think many of my colleagues in that realm would be interested in your answers as well.
At the end of the survey, I ask for your email address so I can contact you if I have questions about your answers. I promise not to attribute specific answers to you without your permission if you identify yourself.
I also ask you to provide your email address if you would like a copy of my report following the survey. I promise only to send you this report and nothing more (unless you indicate later that you want to hear from me again!). If you'd like your answers to remain completely anonymous, just send email to firstname.lastname@example.com requesting a copy of the report.
Thanks in advance for your time and your answers!


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Elizabeth (city, United States)
Elizabeth, city (1990 pop. 110,002), seat of Union co., NE N.J., on Newark Bay; inc. 1855. It is a shipping and transportation hub, with some of the world's largest containerized dock facilities at Port Elizabeth. Since 1985 the harbor, as part of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, has seen a steady increase in the volume of containerized exports. Highly industrialized, Elizabeth makes furnaces, plastics, chemicals, metal and food products, tea, paperboard boxes, and pharmaceuticals. A campus of Union College is in the city. The Goethals Bridge (1928) links Elizabeth with Staten Island, N.Y., and Newark International Airport is nearby. Since the 1980s the Jersey Gardens Mall and other developments have made Elizabeth a retailing center.
The area was purchased (1664) from the Delaware and called Elizabethtown. From 1668 to 1682, Elizabeth borough served as the meeting place of the New Jersey assembly. Chartered as the town of Elizabeth in 1740, it was the scene of several Revolutionary clashes; many buildings were burned (1780). Among surviving older buildings are the 18th-century Elias Boudinot House and the 17th-century Nathaniel Bonnell House. Early industries were tanning and brewing. In the 19th cent., Elizabeth's proximity to New York City and the coming of the railroad stimulated great industrial expansion, especially in shipbuilding, machine production, and oil refining. Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr lived at times in Elizabeth.