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DOUGLAS W. GRINNELLOf Counsel
Practice AreasConstruction & Remediation
Construction Defect Litigation
EducationUniversity of Delaware, 1976
Pepperdine University, 1978
Affiliations and MembershipsState Bar of California
San Diego County Bar Association
Community Associations Institute (CAI)
California Association of Community Managers (CACM)
Consumer Attorneys of California (CAOC), Member & Homeowner's Rights Committee Chair
OverviewDoug Grinnell is a former Epsten Grinnell & Howell, APC shareholder. He graduated cum laude from the University of Delaware in 1976 with a degree in political science and received his law degree from Pepperdine University in 1978.
Doug has been an active trial attorney since 1979. From 1980 to 1984, he served as a trial attorney with the United States Navy. Since 1984, he has engaged exclusively in the representation of homeowners, community associations and consumers. He has been responsible for numerous class-action, multi-million dollar jury verdicts and settlements. Doug has handled more than 200 construction defect cases in California and, in 1996, was the recipient of the Outstanding Trial Lawyer Award for the highest construction defect judgment ever in the State of California ($15.5 million).
Doug is a member of Consumer Attorneys of California (CAOC) and former Chairman of CAOC's Homeowners' Rights Committee. He is also a member of the San Diego County Bar Association, the Community Associations Institute (CAI), and the California Association for Community Managers (CACM). He has lectured frequently at Continuing Legal Education courses throughout California and has published many articles on the topics of construction defects and community association law.
An avid outdoorsman, Doug enjoys running, biking, hiking and skiing.
Honors & Awards
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Photo -"The Flow" by CNaene
Earthquakes for January 2013
This list completed at 12.30pm, Friday, 4 January 2013, Melbourne, Australia time.
In this EQ post, I will only (mostly) be concentrating on regions which I feel may come up with the larger movements. I won't be listing all of the smaller ones I have in the past posts.
As always, I mention that I can be wrong with my feelings, right and/or miss a region altogether.
As always, I mention that I can be wrong with my feelings, right and/or miss a region altogether.
General note: I feel that water will still be a feature in many movements this month. If not this month, maybe in the first few months of 2013 (Jan., Feb., March) water/sea may present as an issue for some regions.
Rivers and lakes may continue or newly present with issues of, for example, discoloration (volcanic, pollution, oil); the loss of one or more lakes; another (or more) will rise in height; some rivers/waterways may break their banks and another or some may lose their height/volume; one (or more) may be 'ringed' with some dead fish/other; some new species may be discovered in one; gases and/or oils may continue or newly present as a problem in some 'water' sources/ways – this may contaminate a domestic supply.
Water (in 2013) may become a precious commodity for (not only already known areas) some regions which may never have anticipated such a problem. There may be challenges resolving such or for communities to be clear as to why this has occurred – answers.
I think I am probably stating the obvious here, when I feel the Ring of Fire is going to continue to be active for the month of January.
But I get a gut feeling that an (or more) earthquake of a substantial magnitude may occur this month in this region. (Though I also feel that the end of February, leading into March may be a time when some significant movement in a couple of regions (or more) may be the larger movements many are anticipating).
The regions which may feel such movement, may be the Japanese coastline, Gulf of Alaska, South America (region/s from Santiago, Chile, up to the northern coast – Columbia), Indonesia (north of Australia). Between the lands of the Kuril Islands and the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) may be another region/s, along with where the plates 'meet' above New Guinea and across to the Pacific Islands (e.g. near Tonga/Fiji/American Samoa), then down to New Zealand.
I feel that the 'recent' movement surrounding Japan is an ongoing concern. I get a mild feeling that Japan may experience a quake larger than the M5's they are continuing to have.
Australia - ?SE Victoria, west coast of WA (central/northish)
The U.S. west coastline, will continue to rumble with M1's, 2's and M2+'s (+?). Baja, California may feel another M4+(?), as may Los Angeles/San Diego region. Offshore Washington may feel an M4+. West of Eureka maybe an M4(+?). San Francisco is 'niggling' at me for an M3(++?). But this could be a movement a bit further north, up the coast – west of Oregon (or both).
The western states, e.g. Nevada and northern(?) Utah may continue to rumble, but I feel there could be a movement of perhaps M3+(+?) close to this region.
January 24th 2013, M4.4 Colorado/Utah border (shallow)
January 24th 2013, M4.4 Colorado/Utah border (shallow)
The odd rumble may pop up in the southern states (west to east). Oklahoma may feel an M3+.
The U.S. eastern states, I am still being drawn to the region between Florida and Virginia for maybe an M3+(+?)
Central America – Mexico & central to lower Central American coast
China (west, south-central, west and south/east). (Taiwan)
Russia (west, south/west, far east/south east, Kamchatka, north in seas)
Middle East (Afghanistan, lower Kazakhstan, upper/central Pakistan, northern + south/west Iraq, Iran/Iraq border, Turkey). (Kyrgyzstan)
Mediterranean regions (Greece - southern, Crete, s/w Turkey, Italy north and south)
France/Spain (s/w Spain – Gibraltar and/or Canary Islands), (France? - maybe water/coast or mountain/water?)
Canada – Yukon region and Queen Charlotte Islands. Maybe border with Alaska (near Gulf)
* M7.7 near border of Alaska & Canada (at sea) 5th January
* M7.7 near border of Alaska & Canada (at sea) 5th January
Greenland, Iceland and maybe the Jan Meyen Islands
Africa – Algeria north, Tanzania/DR Congo, (Madagascar)
Mediterranean, Caspian, Greenland, Atlantic (Mid, southern and north), Pacific (south), South China, Indian Ocean (central and north), seas above Antarctica (below Sth America and New Zealand, Sulu/Celebes and neighboring seas, ?Black, Banda, Java, Coral, Bismarck, Laptev and/or Eats Siberian Sea, Sea of Japan, Sea of Okhotsk.
Some volcanic lakes will change colour due to changing 'elements' entering them.
Some lakes may also change colour due to increased elements/lack of balance/lack of water volume.
Volcanic concerns may focus on Indonesia, New Zealand, Russia, Japan, Ecuador, Vanuatu, Italy, ?Antarctica and ?Heard Island (Australia).
*New and more undersea volcanic cones and vents may be observed, some perhaps in not otherwise known positions/locations.*Since I uploaded this post - this report has been put on the net.
On land, more smoke and steam vents may be noticed in areas least expected or typically found in.
A tsunami (size – not sure, but may be enough to be damaging to an immediate coast line) may affect an island/coastal community. **(Alaska and Hawaii 5th January)
A mountain face (maybe snow, rocks, pyroclastic flow or other) may become an issue for a low-lying community. * Landslide in China Jan11 2013 (mountains)
** 21st January 2013 New Zealand - massive rockfall in snow/mountains just misses hikers
** 21st January 2013 New Zealand - massive rockfall in snow/mountains just misses hikers
I hope for peace and safety for all.

subset: commoncrawl


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Former Black Stars defender Yaw Frimpong is set to complete his switch to Asante Kotoko in the ongoing transfer window.
The ex-Ghana U23 star is currently holding talks with the officials of the Kumasi-based club over his possible reunion.
He is without a club after parting ways with American second-tier side Phoenix Rising FC.
The former Feyenoord Academy and ASEC Mimosas guardsman joined Congolese giants TP Mazembe from Asante Kotoko in 2013.
He made over 100 appearances for TP Mazembe during his four-year stay with 10 goals to his credit.


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Dún Laoghaire live chat forums. Updated daily.
Dancer wrote:Three old ladies – Gertrude, Maude and Tilly – were sitting on a park bench having a quiet conversation.
Suddenly, a handsome young man dressed only in a trench coat approached them from across the park. He was holding his coat together with his hands and didn't seem to be wearing anything underneath it.
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Gertrude immediately had a stroke.
Then Maude also had a stroke.
But Tilly, bless her heart, being older and more feeble, couldn't quite reach that far.
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stillorgan boy wrote:Not long back after working away and living back in the Borough now.
stillorgan boy wrote:Do you ever get that when you're half way through eating a horse and you think to yourself, 'I'm not as hungry as I thought I was
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So there's a great contest series going on at For The Love of Effers (aka the Effer Dares) and you just have to participate! It sounds like so much fun! I have been a lurker on their site for some time now, and I figure there is no time like the present to come out of lurkdom. You can find the info on the contest here. I'm on the list.....will you be?
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This is a very small infrared receiver based on the TSOP85 receiver from Vishay. This receiver has all the filtering and 38kHz demodulation built into the unit. Simply point a IR remote at the receiver, hit a button, and you'll see a stream of 1s and 0s out of the data pin.
This skill defines how difficult the soldering is on a particular product. It might be a couple simple solder joints, or require special reflow tools.
Skill Level: Noob - Some basic soldering is required, but it is limited to a just a few pins, basic through-hole soldering, and couple (if any) polarized components. A basic soldering iron is all you should need.
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Skill Level: Rookie - You will need a better fundamental understand of what code is, and how it works. You will be using beginner-level software and development tools like Arduino. You will be dealing directly with code, but numerous examples and libraries are available. Sensors or shields will communicate with serial or TTL.
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If it requires power, you need to know how much, what all the pins do, and how to hook it up. You may need to reference datasheets, schematics, and know the ins and outs of electronics.
Skill Level: Noob - You don't need to reference a datasheet, but you will need to know basic power requirements.
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Just what I was looking for, thanks!
Here is a document that describes the 3 main types of IR protocols and how to decode them (with permission to redistribute):
Here is an AVR project with source code for decoding the signal using the Sony protocol:
In summary, one can purchase an IR demodulator such as this one, connect it to interrupt pin on a microcontroller and use a universal remote as a general input device for one's projects. Very nifty since it only uses one pin on the micro.
Is there something for doing the reverse of this board, ie taking the 'stream of 1s and 0s' and later transmitting a proper IR signal again. Ideally something simple I can manage with an Arduino.
why is this better than TSOP38238?
I am a student doing an experiment for my science research class. I would like to develop a light based navigation system to help the blind navigate a maze. I would like to be able to turn on and off different lights using the one IR remote shown here https://www.sparkfun.com/products/11759 and the LED shown here https://www.sparkfun.com/products/9650. If anyone has tips or knows what other products that I should use please respond to email@example.com
This is really nice for this kind of project. https://github.com/dandroid88/webmote
I used this on my Uno with SparkFun's red remote and it works flawlessly. It's really responsive. I'm now running my same sketch on the Mega 2560. I changed the IR receiver to pin 9 per the library. Performance is really bad. I have to press the button multiple times for it to be detected. Am I missing something when it comes to using this on a Mega?
UPDATE: I just re-ran the sketch again that's posted above and it works really well on the Mega without my code in the mix. I must have introduced some kind of delay in my sketch that's causing the Mega to "miss" the button presses. Strange how the Uno doesn't skip a beat with my sketch.
I'm using the remote on a clock that get its timebase from Adafruit's Ultimate GPS module. Does anyone see a problem with using both at the same time?
Great little receiver!! Easy setup on Raspberry Pi / Raspbmc with LIRC.
is there a Raspberry Pi tutorial or example on how to use this out there? I've tried connecting 'out' to the 'RxD' pin on the Pi but i'm running into some issues.
You have to use the GPIO pins on the Pi.
I connected mine as follows: VCC to 3.3v, OUT to GPIO18 and GND to GND with a 160ohm pull-up resistor on the VCC.
Then I used LIRC to setup the remotes / read the codes. There are many guides online on this. Hope this helps.
Usually this is pluged into a GPIO attached to an interupt and interpreted by software, I couldn't tell you how the PI works but that would get you closer then trying to read it like a Serial Communications stream
So - I have this connected to my Netduino. Supplied by 5v, the data pin idles at 5v, and when transmitting data it oscillates between 5v and about 3.8v. How are people getting this to trigger an interrupt? The voltage doesnt drop low enough to do it…. (excuse my noob lack of knowledge)
I hacked up a small Arduino library which uses this sensor to receive commands from the keychain remote (http://www.sparkfun.com/products/10280).
Can I use this to determine distance? The circuit would be stationary and I would have a moving light pointed at it.
http://mbed.org/users/4180_1/notebook/ir-and-rf-remote-controls/ has a code example for mbed sending characters from the IR LED breakout board.
Is this analogue interface
Digital. Note the BJT.
Has anyone used this with a normal IR LED, driving it at certain frequencies such that this IR receiver can read a string of ones and zeros?
I've tried using a 555 timer to make a transmitter. It should work, but without an oscilloscope its impossible to get the frequency right.
I've found this site:
which sells an IC who can drive the circuit on 40khz or 38khz.
(edited out, couldn't find view cart button, but its below the add to cart button :-|)
Don't bother wasting your time with a 555. Just use a PWM output from your micro to create the 38KHz pulse.
There are a couple of methods that you could use:
1.) Bit-bang the PWM output (turn the PWM on and off according to your data. This is the most computationally intensive method.)
2.) Use the PWM as an oscillator, then use the UART line to control a FET feeding this signal to an LED. (Least computationally intensive, yet requires additional hardware)
3.)Connect your UART output pin to an interrupt pin in your micro. In the interrupt routine, change the PWM pin ON or OFF. (my favorite method, especially if you have the extra pins)
another option (arduino compatible):
simple and effective :)
I contacted Vishay and they actually emailed me back heh
"Dear Jason xxxxx
The data in the section "Absolute Maximum Ratings" have a different meaning. These values indicate the limit at which the device is damaged. If you achieved to apply a current of more than 3mA to the TSOP852xx then the circuit might be damaged.
The data in the section "Electrical and optical characteristics" are related to the normal usage of the part. The supply current will be in the range between 0.27mA and 0.45mA.
The resistor that is mentioned in the application circuit does not influence the supply current significantly. The current is limited by the circuit inside the TSOP852xx.
Best Regards,
Thomas Mistele"
So i guess the most important fact is:
"The current is limited by the circuit inside the TSOP852xx."
just some info. The data sheet is kinda screwed up. It says the current max is 0.45mA which would be 450uA i doubt thats correct. I think its supposed to be more like 45mA… if so i would recommend a minimum of a 120ohm resistor for R1…
Also it shows under "Absolute Maximum Ratings":
Supply current: 3 mA
Output current: 5 mA
Whats up with that?
So that means the current supposed to be 450uA ? if so then R1 should be more like 12k for 5v systems and 7.3K for 3.3v systems…
This datasheet is confusing as hell :D
I would bet that is correct. This is a very low current receiver that contains nothing more than an op-amp, a receive LED. It is an ?Open collector? output with an internal pull-up resistor of 30k, so the data line will be whatever voltage level you put on pin 2, and the max current is Vin/30k. This is not meant to drive some LED, just a data line. There is usually no reason to have a smaller pull-up than this, ESPECIALLY at these speeds.
Has anyone used this with a normal IR LED, driving it at certain frequencies such that this IR receiver can read a string of ones and zeros?
I'd also like to know. I want to get RS232 communication going with two netduino's via IR communication with this receiver. Any help is greatly appreciated :)
You have to create a 38KHz signal. Otherwise the module will not see it. Once you do that when the 38KHz is there it will either be a one or zero. When it is not there it will be the opposite. It depends on how you want to interpret it. Other IR turns it on and off, but uses pulse width to determine one or zero. Most remotes do it this way.
Has anyone used this with a normal IR LED, driving it at certain frequencies such that this IR receiver can read a string of ones and zeros?
No reviews yet.


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Sammy Sosa's recent wild revelations include a comparison to Jesus Christ
It's been nearly a decade since Sammy Sosa last appeared in a major-league game, but the former MLB slugger's memories of his playing days remain vivid as ever.
The ex-Cubs star has an interesting way of remembering things, which was made apparent when he compared himself to Jesus Christ in a recent interview when asked about speculation that he took PEDs.
"It's like Jesus Christ when he came to Jerusalem," Sosa told chuckblogerstrom.com. "Everybody thought Jesus Christ was a witch (laughing) -- and he was our savior. So if they talk (expletive) about Jesus Christ, what about me?"
Sosa, who has shied away from the public eye in recent years, made the colorful comments in a tell-all interview with former Cubs media relations employee Chuck Wasserstrom on his personal blog site.
The 18-season MLB veteran talked about the success he had while playing in Chicago, where he spent 13 major-league seasons, and even claimed to be the one who attracted the spotlight on the city.
"When nobody knew who Chicago was, I put Chicago on the map."
Because Chicago is one of the largest cities in the country, it's certainly an odd claim to make. Regardless, Sosa has fond memories of the city and regrets the way things ended with the organization.
"My intention was to finish my career in Chicago," Sosa said. " I never wanted to leave Chicago. I should have handled that situation differently, yes indeed. I recognize my mistake."
"If I could have done it again, I would have done it differently. The only thing we cannot do is turn back time. We can't do that. But hey, we have to move forward. I understand I made a mistake. I regret it, definitely, but I have to move on."
When asked about a potential future reunion the Cubs, Sosa seems certain that it's bound to happen eventually, but he's in no hurry.
"If one day they want to do something, I want to do it in style. If it's going to happen, it's got to be the right way. Don't worry, one day they're going to do it. I'm not in a rush."
Check out the entire interview with Sosa at chuckblogerstrom.com.


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Flint, Michigan recently declared a "State of Emergency" in the wake of lead contaminated drinking water. As a result, we are once again faced with the age-old discussion regarding the health implications of lead accumulation. We know that protecting all people from lead exposure is extremely important to lifelong good health. Children, however, are particularly vulnerable to the harmful effects of lead because they absorb lead much more readily than adults. The current controversy over treatment revolves around three questions:
Unfortunately, this tragedy goes far beyond Flint, Michigan. People worldwide continue to be exposed to potentially harmful levels of many toxic metals that can profoundly affect their health. They face potentially enduring, serious and complicated health issues. Perhaps the major question, especially in children, is the level of lead in the blood to cause concern.
The CDC states, "Experts now use a reference level of 5 micrograms per deciliter to identify children with blood lead levels that are much higher than most children's levels. This new level is based on the U.S. population of children ages 1-5 years who are in the highest 2.5% of children when tested for lead in their blood. In the past, blood lead level tests below 10 micrograms per deciliter of lead in blood may, or may not, have been reported to parents. The new lower value means that more children will likely be identified as having lead exposure allowing parents, doctors, public health officials, and communities to take action earlier to reduce the child's future exposure to lead."
The CDC also states, "What has not changed is the recommendation for when medical treatment is advised for children with high blood lead exposure levels. The new recommendation does not change the guidance that the therapy used to eliminate lead from the body be considered only when a child has been tested with a blood lead test result greater than or equal to 45 mcg/dL." [http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/ACCLPP/blood_lead_levels.htm]
However, medical science has determined that even very low blood lead levels in children can affect IQ, ability to pay attention and future academic achievement. It is now clear that IQ loss in lead-exposed children can occur at levels below 5.0 mcg/dL. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2212280/, from Neurotoxicology, 2006 Sep; 27(5): 693–701.
The American College for Advancement in Medicine (ACAM), an educational organization and a leading authority in the field of heavy metal toxicity and treatment believes, as the CDC does, that "no safe blood lead level in children has been identified." The effects of lead exposure on child cognitive development and behavior may be permanent if no intervention occurs. Experts from ACAM believe that certain interventions may be useful in lessening the symptoms and long-term neurocognitive damage that lead causes in children.
ACAM experts also contend that the myriad, harmful effects that lead can cause in other organ systems in people of any age should also be lessened. The original guidelines for intervention in lead poisoning were based on early FDA drug approval studies from the minimal research conducted in pediatric patients with blood lead levels above 45 mcg/dL. ACAM believes that appropriate medical intervention may be beneficial to those suffering from lead levels even at the current CDC cutoff of 5 mcg/dl, the level that places the child in the upper 2.5% of tested individuals.
Due to the lack of current, cohesive, long-term studies in children with elevated blood levels below 45 mcg/dL, the decision when to initiate chelation therapy is a personal choice between a patient and their physician. To better elucidate what is the best treatment strategy for lead poisoning, ACAM is calling for the immediate initiation of a collaborative long-term research project. The project, conducted through appropriate channels, could provide immediate medical attention and intervention to all children and adults in Flint who have high blood lead levels (>5 mcg/dl). This research project should also investigate assessing those common genetic and metabolic defects that could render individuals even more susceptible to the harmful effects of lead.
We can take a more proactive approach to prevent permanent damage and disability not only in the population of Flint, MI but to everyone exposed to the potential devastation caused by lead.
The American College for Advancement in Medicine (ACAM) is a not-for-profit organization dedicated to educating physicians and other health care professionals on the safe and effective application of integrative medicine. ACAM's healthcare model focuses on prevention of illness and strives for total wellness. ACAM has been educating physicians in metal removal techniques such as chelation therapies since 1973. A recent NIH sponsored study has demonstrated that the chelation technique using EDTA is safe when it is used by physicians educated in these techniques.
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A rationale for lowering the blood lead action level from 10 to 2 μg/dL
Effect of Chelation Therapy on the Neuropsychological and Behavioral Development of Lead-Exposed Children After School Entry
American Academy of Pediatrics: Lead Exposure in Children: Prevention, Detection, and Management
Safety and Efficacy of DMSA in children with elevated blood level concentrations
Children with moderately elevated blood lead levels: a role for other diagnostic tests?
What level of lead in blood is toxic for a child?
ACAM is starting a letter writing campaign to strongly suggest to our senators to vote "YES" on Senate Bill 1406, which will continue to allow doctors to prescribe compounded medicines and allow patients to continue receiving them.
PLEASE SHARE http://www.congressweb.com/iacp/8 with all of your colleagues to write a letter of support for Senate Bill 1406 and PLEASE write one yourself! Also, please pass this link on to your entire patient e-mail lists with a strong statement asking them to write to their senators too. If a patient is willing to write a personal letter, to tell their unique stories about how compounded medications have either saved their lives or greatly enhanced their health and quality of life this would also be EXTREMELY helpful.
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Dear ACAM members,
You probably don't know me, but as President-Elect for ACAM I most certainly want to know you! The time is getting closer for our annual meeting, Practical Applications of New Technology, at the Red Rock Resort near Las Vegas, Nevada November 12-15, 2015. Have you registered? If not, I'm asking you to review the details of this exciting meeting!
ACAM has been the leader in integrative medical education for decades, providing practical approaches and solutions to the problems our patients deal with daily. We pride ourselves on our history of developing programs you want and need. This program is no different - in addition, we have added some interesting side events and special optional workshops, all the while building in optional time to enjoy the ACAM family or your own at Red Rock Resort.
Please come, enjoy the meeting, mingle with like minded practitioners, recharge and re-energize your love of our profession and, if you have time, I would love to meet you!
Best Regards,
Mike Bauerschmidt, MD, CCT
President-Elect, ACAM
2015 annual meeting
las vegas
Please oppose a new House bill that puts corporate profits ahead of children's health. Action Alert!
A 2002 federal program that delivers fresh fruits and vegetables to the country's poorest schools is now at risk because of crony capitalism. Lobbyists from the frozen, fried, canned, and dried food industries are all jostling to have their products included in the government program, and their efforts are paying off. Reps. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) and Kurt Schrader (D-OR) have recently introduced legislation that would broaden the Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program to include frozen, canned, dried, and pureed fruits and vegetables.
On Thursday, August 27th you may have received an invoice stating that your ACAM membership was due for renewal. A software glitch mistakenly triggered the Membership Dues Invoice to be sent to all ACAM members - whether they were paid or not. We apologize for this inconvenience. Please disregard the email.
ACAM is continuing work to bring the best service to our members. We again apologize for this confusion. Should you have further questions please call Headquarters at 800-532-3688.
Board of Directors
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3/22/2019 » 3/23/2019Stem Cell and Peptide Therapies Workshop
10/18/2019 » 10/20/20192019 ACAM Annual Meeting
11/14/20188 Foods to Help You Detox Naturally
7/30/2018Scientists reverse aging-associated skin wrinkles and hair loss in a mouse model
5/30/2018TACT2 Study Update: May 2018
8/30/2018New Members!
7/26/2018Obituary: Chelation Pioneer, Dr. Edward McDonagh
7/12/2018New Vulnerability in deadly form of lung cancer discovered
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Read this tip to make your life smarter, better, faster and wiser. LifeTips is the place to go when you need to know about Caribbean Vacation Rentals and other Vacation Rentals topics.
Caribbean vacation rentals can be found by Internet surfing and locating agencies that assist in the rental of villas, hotels, or other accommodations that best fit your plans. In addition, they find the top discount airfare, car rentals, and other all-inclusive package deals. Want to bid on a travel auction? Take note of the following tips:
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The Relevancy of Non-Normal Risk
The Relevancy of Non-Normal Risk - Descarga este documento en PDF. Documentación en PDF para descargar gratis. Disponible también para leer online.
'Ihe argument that a normal distribution of a performance indicator may be an inadequate approximation of the true distribution is examined in this paper. Simulated normal and beta distributions of net return for 1,181 swine operations are compared using a Kolmogorov-Simirnov test and stochastic dominance techniques. Results show that for this data set the differences between the simulations are not statistically significant nor does stochastic dominance switching take place. Although the normal distribution represents an acceptable approximation, the added flexibility of the beta distribution may prove more useful in future research.
Keywords: Risk ; Stochastic Dominance ; Beta Distribution ; Simulation
Subject(s): Risk and Uncertainty
Issue Date: May 31 1983
Publication Type: Working or Discussion Paper
Language: English
Total Pages: 15
Series Statement: WP-16
Record appears in: University of Arizona > Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics > Working Papers
Autor: Wilson, Paul N.
Fuente: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/257671?ln=en


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– Amy C, Miami USA
Reykjavik's first bike tour company.
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See Reykjavik from the bike saddle during the holidays.
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Please contact us if you'd like to rent a bike over the holidays.
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Exact dates not available yet but we try to do tours every day during Chrismas and New Year.
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Saturdays in winter - Reykjavik By Night. City tours in Reykjavik - Classic Reykjavik bicycle tour. Coast of Reykjavik bicycle tour. Minibus and Bike - Golden Circle bicycle tour. Vestmannaeyjar bicycle tour. Blue Lagoon bicycle tour.


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Tuesday, January 23, 2018
The Bookman, by Lavie Tidhar
I think my biggest criticism of this book is that there is simply way too much going on for this book to have a coherent plot. In my opinion Tidhar gets way too ambitious and tries to jam about five thousand different things into this book at once which means we never really have time to develop one idea to its full potential. I definitely think this book could have benefited from a tighter focus and sticking to maybe one or two plot threads instead of having multiple threads scattered all over the place running at once.
To provide an example of what I mean, let me just cover some of the things that are included in The Bookman. Orphan pulled a prank on Oscar Wilde. Lizard people have ruled Great Britain and its empire for nearly four hundred years. Professor Moriarty is the Prime Minister and Rudyard Kipling is a newspaper reporter. Mycroft Holmes is influential enough in government to commandeer mysterious black airships. Mycroft and Dr. Watson have consulted with Dr. Moreau, Dr. Jekyll, and Dr. West to try to bring Sherlock back to life. Karl Marx is a member of the small revolutionary group run by Orphan's boss. Orphan meets the Mechanical Turk, Tom Thumb, and Jojo the Dog-Faced Boy. Later Orphan teams up with Jules Verne and Captain Nemo to travel to a mysterious island. And these are just the references I caught. I have no doubt that Tidhar included multiple other references that I probably missed. As I've said in reviews of other books I have doubts about these sorts of references, especially when you have authors and their fictional characters in the same universe. And considering the sheer number of things that Tidhar has thrown into the book, it left me feeling a little overwhelmed.
The plot seems to revolve around three factions, although there might be more and it's difficult for me to tell because Tidhar throws so many things into the mix. We have the Bookman, the lizard people, and then the automatons who want rights as sentient beings. Orphan gets tossed between the factions as a playing piece and he realizes he doesn't seem to have much choice himself in the situation but to move ahead on the path laid before him. So the result is Orphan gets tossed around throughout the book.
Maybe this book gets better if you read it through a second time, but I was honestly left feeling kind of lost because there was so much going on. As I said, I think if Tidhar had focused on just one or two plot threads instead of trying to include every possible thing into the book this might have turned out a lot better.
- Kalpar
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Early Evidence Suggests Gigabit Broadband Drives GDP. David Sosa Principal
- Isabel Cross
- 3 years ago
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1 Early Evidence Suggests Gigabit Broadband Drives GDP David Sosa Principal
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the past 20 years the Internet has been an economic catalyst, enabling productivity growth, facilitating innovation, creating jobs and raising incomes in the U.S. and around the world. Numerous studies have documented the benefits of the first transformative leap in Internet connectivity speeds, as always on broadband was deployed, replacing dial-up Internet. At the dawn of the next generation of Internet connectivity, we investigate whether the deployment of gigabit broadband, which represents a 100-fold increase in throughput speeds for households and small businesses, can be expected to produce economic benefits similar to the previous transition from dial-up to always on broadband. Although gigabit broadband is in its infancy, we have an initial opportunity to empirically examine the relationship between availability of gigabit broadband services and economic activity at the community level. Our study suggests that communities where gigabit broadband was widely available enjoyed higher GDP, relative to similar communities where gigabit broadband was not widely available. The 14 communities with widely available gigabit broadband that we studied enjoyed over $1 billion in additional GDP when gigabit broadband became widely available, relative to communities where gigabit broadband was not widely available. PAGE 1
3 INTRODUCTION Beginning in the late 1990s, Internet connectivity was transformed by disruptive broadband technologies always on DSL and cable modem services which dramatically increased throughput speeds relative to dial-up connections. As consumers and small businesses adopted these first generation broadband services, the improved broadband connectivity to the Internet facilitated the development of new inventions, new and improved goods and services, new processes, new business models, and has increased competitiveness and flexibility in the economy. More generally, broadband has demonstrated the ability to fundamentally change how and where economic activity is organized. Many studies have quantified the benefits to consumers and economies from the initial deployment of broadband networks and adoption of high speed broadband connections by businesses and consumers. These studies have evaluated the effect of current broadband offerings on a range of economic metrics, including consumer surplus, employment and GDP. As policymakers have shifted to focus on the next generation of connectivity gigabit broadband advocates of the technology have argued that the introduction of the transformative general purpose technology will provide a significant contribution to economic growth and competition, similar to the previous generation of broadband. However, some skeptics have argued that the expected incremental benefits of the next generation of broadband may be overstated. Although gigabit broadband is in its infancy, we have an initial opportunity to empirically examine the relationship between availability of gigabit broadband services and economic activity at the community level. In this report, we describe the results of this initial study. Our initial results suggest incremental economic benefits from widely available gigabit broadband on the order of an additional 1.1 percent GDP, which are consistent with the measured economic benefits from the introduction of first generation broadband technologies. BACKGROUND With the advent of broadband services in the second half of the 1990s, economists and policy analysts began a decade-long examination of the economic benefits of high-speed Internet connectivity. In one of the first comprehensive studies, Crandall & Jackson (2003) examined the economic benefits of broadband. They hypothesized that the deployment of first generation broadband Internet connections would facilitate continued improvements in information technology, with significant positive effects on the economy, including lower input costs, increased labor productivity, and new and more efficient production processes. Their study concludes that the long run benefits of first generation broadband services may be a one percent or higher increment to GDP. 1 Following Crandall & Jackson, other researchers have also investigated the economic benefits of first generation broadband. Lehr, Gillett, Sirbu & Osorio 1 Robert Crandall & Charles Jackson, The $500 Billion Opportunity: The Potential Economic Benefit of Widespread Diffusion of Broadband Internet Access, in: Shampine, A.L. (ed.), Down to the Wire: Studies in the Diffusion and Regulation of Telecommunications Technologies (2003) Haupauge, NY: Nova Science Press. PAGE 2
4 (2005) concluded that communities with broadband experienced faster job and firm growth, and realized higher market rates for rental housing (a proxy for property values) than non-broadband communities. 2 Ford and Koutsky (2006) also examined the impact the introduction of first generation broadband had on economic activity. They concluded that broadband is likely to be a significant contributor to economic growth, based on evidence that economic growth doubled in a Florida city after an extensive broadband network was installed. 3 Crandall, Lehr & Litan (2007) also studied the effects of broadband on both output and employment. They concluded that broadband increased private employment by 0.2 to 0.3 percent per year and that broadband has had a positive impact on GDP as well. 4 The OECD (2007) has noted additional evidence from several firm-level studies for various OECD countries, including Sweden and the U.K., of the economic benefits of broadband. 5 GIGABIT BROADBAND According to Akamai's State of the Internet Report, at the end of 2013, American consumers experienced average broadband speeds of 10 Mbps and average peak speeds of 44 Mbps. However, among all industrialized nations, the U.S. ranked 10 th in both performance categories; average speed was 50 percent of the first-ranked country (South Korea) and average peak speed was 65 percent of the first-ranked country (Hong Kong). 6 Over the past several years, new services using fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) technology that offers speeds up to 1,000 Mbps (gigabit) have been deployed in several communities across the U.S. These services, which represent the next generation of broadband, deliver Internet speeds more than 100 times faster than what is available today to most Americans. These dramatically higher speeds allow users to access higher quality data intensive services and will enable the next generation of new technologies. As broadband has become an important factor in economic growth and job creation, the quality of broadband services, including availability and throughput speeds, has become a major topic of discussion. As discussed earlier, the benefits of previous waves of Internet connectivity have been well documented. The evidence of a broadband bonus in the macroeconomic statistics has been shown by numerous researchers in the transition from dial-up Internet to first generation always on broadband. Now we are faced with the question of the macroeconomic impact of the deployment of optical fiber and gigabit connections. An open question is do we really need a hundredfold increase in Internet connectivity? Gigabit skeptics posit that there appears to be a declining return to additional bandwidth. Gigabit advocates make the opposite case: gigabit 2 Sharon Gillett, William Lehr, Carlos Osorio & Marvin Sirbu, Measuring Broadband s Economic Impact, Broadband Properties, vol. 24, no. 12, George Ford & Thomas Koutsky, Broadband and Economic Development: A Municipal Case Study from Florida, Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, Vol. 17, Robert Crandall, William Lehr & Robert Litan, The Effects of Broadband Deployment on Output and Employment: A Crosssectional Analysis of U.S. Data, Issues in Economic Policy, Vol. 6, OECD, Broadband and the Economy, Ministerial Background Report DSTI/ICCP/IE(2007)3/FINAL. 6 David Belson (2014), Q Executive Summary, Akamai s State of the Internet, Vol. 6, No.4, < > PAGE 3
5 broadband will allow the development and deployment of high-value applications which cannot be delivered in any other way, suggesting additional bandwidth carries considerable returns. Past studies have framed the analysis of economic benefits from broadband in two categories: direct benefits from infrastructure investment and direct consumer expenditures on broadband services; and indirect benefits such as cost savings, productivity gains and incremental economic activity from new products and services facilitated by broadband. 7 Although it is very early in the development of gigabit services, we expect that to the extent there are economic benefits from the next generation of broadband connectivity, these benefits will be realized in similar patterns as first generation broadband. We would expect to see direct benefits realized in the near term and indirect benefits as gigabit broadband becomes more widespread and widely adopted. In this brief, we report the results of a study of several U.S. communities where gigabit broadband services have recently become widely available. DATA AND METHODOLOGY For this study we have constructed a panel dataset of metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level economic data obtained from the National Telecommunication and Information Administration (NTIA), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). NTIA provides data about the percentage of homes passed by broadband service providers offering gigabit broadband. We used the NTIA data to identify MSAs in which more than 50 percent of households have access to gigabit broadband in the years 2011 and Then, we matched this data with the 2011 and 2012 GDP per capita and unemployment data provided by the BEA and BLS to analyze the relationship between the availability of gigabit broadband and output at the MSA level. This unique dataset allowed us to examine whether MSAs with high levels of gigabit broadband availability enjoyed higher GDP per capita than other similar communities where gigabit broadband was not widely available. In other words, do we find evidence that gigabit broadband has a positive impact on economic activity? We focused our analysis on 14 MSAs, in nine states, in which more than 50 percent of households have access to gigabit broadband service (see Table 1 below). On average, 70 percent of households in these 14 communities had access to gigabit broadband in We compared these MSAs to 41 other similarly sized MSAs in the same nine states. Gigabit broadband was not widely available in the 41 communities in the control group. On average, only one percent of households in these communities had access to gigabit broadband. By limiting the dataset to geographically proximate MSAs we obtained a control group of MSAs that are more comparable to the MSAs with high gigabit broadband availability. Similarly, we further limited our sample to MSAs with populations of less than one million. 7 International Telecommunications Union (ITU) & United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Broadband: A Platform for Progress (June 2011). PAGE 4
6 The dataset that we created allowed us to analyze the variation in the GDP per capita across MSAs and over the period There are numerous factors that affect GDP per capita, and differences in these factors across MSAs and over time will drive variation in GDP per capita. However, it is difficult to observe or accurately measure many of these factors. We use a year and MSA fixed effects regression model to control for these unobserved, time-invariant MSA-specific GDP drivers, such as industry mix, geography or resource endowments, and MSA-invariant yearspecific GDP drivers. Therefore, the results that we provide about the impact of gigabit broadband on GDP control for MSA and year specific effects. RESULTS In order to measure the economic impact of gigabit connection we examined economic output in relation to unemployment, MSA and year fixed effects, and whether or not gigabit broadband was widely available. If the widespread availability of gigabit broadband speeds (defined as more than 50 percent of households have access to gigabit services) has a positive impact on economic activity we should observe higher output levels in areas that adopted gigabit broadband. Using a fixed effects panel data regression model that controls for idiosyncratic differences across MSAs and over time, we found that in MSAs where gigabit broadband service was introduced between 2011 and 2012, GDP per capita levels were significantly higher. More specifically, our model suggests that for the MSAs with widely available gigabit services, the per capita GDP is approximately 1.1 percent higher than in MSAs with little to no availability of gigabit services. These results suggest that the 14 gigabit broadband communities in our study enjoyed approximately $1.4 billion in additional GDP when gigabit broadband became widely available. Extending the results to the 41 MSAs in our study that did not have widely available gigabit broadband suggests foregone GDP in 2012 of as much as $3.3 billion. Regression Results Dependent Variable (GDP per capita) Gigabit Broadband Availability Greater Than 50% 0.011* (0.007) Unemployment (0.007) Observations 110 R F Statistic 2.857** (df = 2, 52) Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 PAGE 5
7 CONCLUSION Beginning in 2011, the NTIA has published statistics on the availability of gigabit broadband. These data have allowed us to conduct one of the first empirical studies of the benefits of next generation Internet connectivity on economic activity. Looking at 14 communities in nine states, we conclude that next generation broadband is likely to have a substantial impact on economic output and, consequently, consumer welfare. These gains are likely due to numerous factors, including the direct effect of infrastructure investment and increased expenditures, as well as early shifts in economic activity (e.g., job creation and occupational changes) and productivity gains. For example, recent reporting on gigabit broadband service in Chattanooga, Tennessee has attributed 1,000 new jobs, increased investment, and a new population of computer programmers, entrepreneurs and investors to gigabit broadband. 8 As more communities adopt gigabit broadband and the economy adapts to this new technology, economists will be able to extend the research on the economic impact of gigabit broadband. 8 Edward Wyatt, Fast Internet Is Chattanooga s New Locomotive, New York Times (February 3, 2014) PAGE 6
8 Table 1 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) Household Access to Gigabit Broadband Services State < 50% > 50% Anniston- Oxford- Jacksonville, AL Mobile, AL Auburn- Opelika, AL Chattanooga, TN- GA Decatur, AL Dothan, AL Florence- Muscle Shoals, AL Gadsden, AL Huntsville, AL Montgomery, AL Tuscaloosa, AL Albany, GA Athens- Clarke County, GA Augusta- Richmond County, GA- SC Brunswick, GA Alabama / Georgia / Tennessee Columbus, GA- AL Dalton, GA Gainesville, GA Hinesville- Fort Stewart, GA Macon, GA Rome, GA Savannah, GA Valdosta, GA Warner Robins, GA Clarksville, TN- KY Cleveland, TN Jackson, TN Johnson City, TN Kingsport- Bristol- Bristol, TN- VA Knoxville, TN Morristown, TN Duluth, MN- WI Fargo, ND- MN Minnesota / La Crosse- Onalaska, WI- MN Bismarck, ND North Dakota / Mankato- North Mankato, MN Grand Forks, ND- MN South Dakota Rochester, MN Rapid City, SD St. Cloud, MN Sioux Falls, SD Albany, OR Bend- Redmond, OR Oregon Grants Pass, OR Corvallis, OR Eugene- Springfield, OR Medford, OR Salem, OR Logan, UT- ID St. George, UT Utah Ogden- Clearfield, UT Provo- Orem, UT Connecticut New Haven- Milford, CT Bridgeport- Stamford- Norwalk, CT Norwich- New London, CT PAGE 7
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text:
accuser, angel, blameless, demon, evil, false prophet, lies, prophecy, sin, spirit, suffering, truth, vision, wrath
Job 4:12-21 ESV
"Now a word was brought to me stealthily;
my ear received the whisper of it.
Amid thoughts from visions of the night,
when deep sleep falls on men,
dread came upon me, and trembling,
which made all my bones shake.
A spirit glided past my face;
the hair of my flesh stood up.
It stood still,
but I could not discern its appearance.
A form was before my eyes;
there was silence, then I heard a voice:
'Can mortal man be in the right before God?
Can a man be pure before his Maker?
Even in his servants he puts no trust,
and his angels he charges with error;
how much more those who dwell in houses of clay,
whose foundation is in the dust,
who are crushed like the moth.
Between morning and evening they are beaten to pieces;
they perish forever without anyone regarding it.
Is not their tent-cord plucked up within them,
do they not die, and that without wisdom?'
How can someone be so right, but at the same time so wrong?
Of course, no man is perfect, but Job never did anything to incur the wrath of God. God knew Job better than Eliphaz ever could, and He said of Job, "Have you considered my servant Job, that there is none like him on the earth, a blameless and upright man, who fears God and turns away from evil?" (Job 2:3a).
Did Eliphaz receive his revelation from the angel of the Lord, or the accuser of the brethren? Even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light (2 Corinthians 11:14, ESV). I think it's fairly obvious what kind of spirit Eliphaz was inspired by when you judge the fruit. First of all, he accused a blameless and upright man of sin. Second of all, who else but the devil would point out that his angels he charges with error?
Eliphaz was a false prophet. He was, in fact, the most insidious and deceptive of false prophets, who prophesy things that are so true and yet still lie.
Who could disagree with Eliphaz's argument that nobody's perfect? And yet, within the platitude lay vicious lies. The lies were that Job was being punished by God for hidden sin, and that the Almighty was a megalomaniacal berserker.


text:
Men's Blue The Regent Fine Gauge Half Zip Jumper
Description. An N.Peal classic, this lightweight 1/2 zip cashmere jumper is an investment in enduring style. This fine gauge cashmere knit jumper is made using a worsted yarn which makes the garment much lighter and a perfect transitional piece. The 70% cashmere retains the luxury whilst the 30% silk helps give the garment a coolness to the touch. A sartorial staple, this lightweight jumper is ideally suited to layering and works equally well over a t-shirt in summer or under a jacket in winter. Shown here in Navy, our timeless and darkest Navy classic colour. 70% Cashmere 30% Silk. Colour: blue


text:
Did you know that Walt Disney had a private apartment above the firehouse in Disneyland? As a prize at an Annual Passholder Event in 1995, we won dinner in that apartment which has been preserved since Walt's passing in 1966. Click on the picture below to read all about that night, and see all of the pictures we took.
Check out all of our
Pages for Disney Fans.
Secure Online Ordering
One of three premium pins from Long's Drugs Stores in California in a 1997 promotion with Nestle Candy. This is one of just two or three souvenirs I know of from the Disneyland Hercules Victory Parade, a parade that rivals The Lion King Celebration in its animated floats, exciting live performers, and the wonderful rock gospel music by famed composer Alan Menkin (a.k.a. the man who put the "glad" in "gladiator"). It's Pinpics.com pin #1014.
Similar Disneyland Pins:
Event Exclusive that's Ghoulishly Fun
This page was last updated on May 29, 2012


text:
We've launched our new Owls Live news feed.
Sheffield Wednesday Live brings you all the latest news, interviews, features and opinions from Hillsborough.
It also, pulls together all the best Owls related content from Youtube, Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter.
So if you want to be the first to know about all the latest goings on in Hillsborough, make sure you bookmark the link below...
Follow Sheffield Wednesday Live - Click here


text:
I must admit that several months i want a tablet. It is an idea on my mind often, but always convince me not achieving the need for two reasons. First, because the price of a low no more or less competent tablet of 200 euros (and leaving aside the leading brands), a not insignificant in this day and age and the economic situation that we are living amount. And second, because I'm not entirely convinced it's going to repay this money.
Let me explain. Undoubtedly, the ability to purchase a device of this type and have it owned tempts me too, especially after some fiddling in department stores when I have the chance. The truth is that I spend several minutes opening applications, looking at the technical specifications and making all kinds of tests. And I recognize that this is a device that amazes me with its agility and efficiency.
But then I think: "Why I want a tablet?". m not a businessman, so now I must discard one of its main uses, the professional. Logically, this terminal is useful to work with him for meetings, travel and ultimately, it is not possible to have a computer. In that sense, is a most effective device, since it tends to have a large autonomy and easy portability, but the fact is that it would bring him the most of these attributes.
A striking whim
On the other hand, since I have a powerful and functional laptop with which I can perform almost the same tasks as a tablet. So I always end up discarding the idea to bought convincing myself that it is nothing more than a whim. But a quirk with which could run endless fun and useful applications, which could surf the internet and watch movies from anywhere without lugging around a heavy laptop and with that, ultimately, it would me really well.
So, probably a little treat, but I want to give it to me. And I feel that I am not the only one who would like to become a device even knowing that there will exploit all the possibilities offered me. Anyway, I think the one I have some money I think I'll end up spending on a tablet, although not the best investment for the uses that I'm giving. I'm sorry if he 'disappointed' to those who had the same dilemma as me, but a tablet is much more comfortable than even the best laptops, do not you think?


text:
Betty Lou Magoun's life's work includes paintings and pen and ink works of geometrics, funky florals and women - lots of women.
She says there's no political or feminist agenda behind her images of women.
"I think women are so much more interesting than men," said Magoun, who lives in Akron, Ohio. "When it comes to drawing them, I just do them better."
More than 50 pieces of Magoun's art will be on display at Benjamin Art Gallery in Hagerstown from Friday, April 11, through Tuesday, April 29, said Magoun's niece, Karen Sornson of Hancock.


text:
Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden On Why He Opposes Gina Haspel's CIA Nomination
Listen Online:
NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., about Gina Haspel's nomination for Director of the CIA. A member of Senate Intelligence Committee, he opposes confirming her, because of her involvement in enhanced interrogation techniques. Copyright 2018 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.


text:
All About La Rustica Mediterranean Restaurant
Advertised as an Italian and Turkish restaurant, the vast majority of the items on the menu are Italian and simply some of the best on the Gold Coast.
With a rustic character and a truly authentic menu, this restaurant is a favorite among locals and tourists alike.
Where: 3118 Surfers Paradise Boulevard, Surfers Paradise
Phone: 07 5570 1153
Web: www.larusticarestaurant.com.au