text:
This volume in the Vancouver Studies in Cognitive Science series concerns metarepresentation: the construction and use of representations that represent other representations. Metarepresentations are ubiquitous among human beings, whenever we think or talk about mental states or linguistic acts, or theorize about the mind or language. This volume collects previously unpublished studies on the subject by an interdisciplinary group of contributors, including Daniel Dennett, Alvin Goldman, Keith Lehrer, Leda Cosmides and John Tooby.Sperber, Daniel is the author of 'Metarepresentations A Mutidisciplinary Perspective', published 2000 under ISBN 9780195141146 and ISBN 0195141148.[read more]
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Photos by Pete Mazzaccaro
Early Tuesday, Chestnut Hill was slowly coming back to life. Most of Germantown Avenue still appeared to have power, though many Hill residents were lined up in front of Chestnut Coffee Company because their power was out and they couldn't brew their own.
A drive around the neighborhood revealed many downed trees and blocked roads. Bells Mill road was blocked, as were Stenton Avenue between Bethlehem Pike and Northwestern Avenue, West Willow Grove at Roanoke, Rex Avenue, Moreland Avenue and Prospect Avenue.
Power lines are down in places and anyone travelling should be careful and expect blocked roads.
–Pete Mazzaccaro


text:
Cheap Dreams Are NicePosted in Features on May 19, 2005
Isn't it nice having dreams? Most of the time, they're completely unrealistic. And they're great until you actually give 'em a try. Like buying a bitchin' old truck for a sweet deal, only to realize later the price you'll pay--and oh, you'll pay. For example, Fred, Dave, Rick, and I had a plan. We were all gonna buy and build super-cheap 4x4s for under $1,500. Then we were gonna have a mini competition between the four of us, perhaps making a tour around much of California. But this is a Cheap Truck Challenge, and that just ain't gonna happen...at least not this time around.
1PhotosView Slideshow
It's hard building a super-cheap truck that'll be a good wheeler, a street driver, and not a money pit or deathtrap. If you've scored a "great" deal before, then you know what we mean. C'mon, admit it. You've totally fudged it when boasting about your killer deal. If you're claiming $500, then you probably spent at least an extra $100 on fluids, fuses, belts, and so on. But we'll just call that "the gray budget area."
So of the four of us, I am the last to give this Cheap Truck Challenge a try. Dave truly did get a good deal on an old man Bronco with heinous maroon interior (page 83). The total cost of his buildup was kept below the $1,500 cap. He spent a long time cleaning under the hood though, and the interior wouldn't look any worse if you puked on it.
4PhotosView Slideshow
Fred got what was thought to be a great deal on a little 'Zuki with a rebuilt motor and a bad ECM. After getting a new ECM, putting on some other mods, and seriously closing the gap between the cap and Fred's remaining budget, we took it out for a spin and found the 'rebuilt' motor had a few bugs--like a blown head gasket which essentially wasted the motor. So much for his Cheap Truck Challenge.
Rick--well, Rick has like 10 different vehicles he could qualify for this competition. He hasn't even bothered mentioning which one he'll think about using since he, being Pw, could have any one of them running within 24 hours. That's the problem with having this type of competition with a guy like him.
And then there was my purchase. It struck me from my PC screen late Friday night in the office, "1954 Dodge M43, no motor, no tranny, $100." Must be a misprint. I decided to call just to make sure. Sure enough, the previous owner was trying to unload his son's ex-project from his driveway. "I'll be there in the morning." I had no idea exactly what I had claimed I would purchase, but I knew I was excited. Just swap in a motor, a tranny, and go, right? Right...
8PhotosView Slideshow
Think About This!
As sweet a deal as this was, it's no bargain truck. Buying a vehicle with no engine or tranny will almost always get you the best deal on the initial vehicle price, but what are your plans for a 4x4? If you were gonna scrap the drivetrain anyway, then you definitely scored, and not only saved yourself money, but also time, since the motor and tranny are out of the way. But if you can live with the motor that your budget dream comes with from the factory, an already-running truck is almost always the better and cheapest choice.
Think about where you're going with your buildup project, how long you have, and how you're going to finish it. Even if you are planning on scrapping most or all of the drivetrain, having it mobile during the buildup is very good, in case you need to transport it.
Maybe you have a choice between two similar vehicles, and one has body damage or rust, and while the other doesn't, it's $600 more. Well, again, what are your plans? If the bed and doors are rusty, but you're gonna wheel the piss out of it and probably one day pull the doors and bed anyway, then don't waste your money getting the cleaner rig. But if you do plan to keep the body, the cost of new doors and bodywork will overshadow the measly $600 you could save on the dirtier truck.
All of us get overexcited and caught up in the process of acquiring something new, but remember that life is almost never all roses and gumdrops, and the work you spend on a truck trying to undo years of neglect or a previous owner's boneheaded idea, can become very costly.
So This Is What We We're Thinking...
All right, after some careful deliberation and actual thought, obviously this M43 is out of the question as a running and competing vehicle for under the $1,500 price cap of the Cheap Truck Challenge. So, what do we do now? At first, I got it and immediately thought, "Perfect magazine tow vehicle." All we'd have to do is fix the rust, do a little (OK, a lot) of interior work, put in a fridge, and use the fold-down cots to sleep in and the storage underneath for tools and tow gear. Throw in a sweet diesel and a five- or six-speed, put on some 36-inch E-rated tires, and bring some tunes for a long haul. Then I started thinking--dare I say it?--maybe some 46-inch Baja Claws or 49-inch Iroks, some Rockwell or Unimog axles (if Kennedy doesn't notice they're missing), and maybe a Cummins diesel to move all that weight. The top is rusty and visibility is poor, so maybe we hack it to convertible truck status and lose a ton of rusty weight. All that mixed with front and rear 15,000-pound winches on iron so old that it seniors even our trusty boss Pw.
What Should We Do? You Tell Us!
Well, what do you want us to do? We're sort of stumped. No matter what we do, this is in no way going to be a cheap buildup. Maybe I should just scrap this project, sell it for a couple bucks, and think about getting something easy like a 1/2-ton Chevy. So, should we keep this as a project buildup or sell it and start our search over? What would we have to go through?
Would it be cheaper to buy a running truck? What about going serious with this thing? We were thinking along the lines of Biggest Buggy Ever. Should we? Or maybe it would be a cool tow vehicle? Or (even more maybes) you have a better idea. Let us know! E-mail your suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.com. I'll take a look at what everyone has to say, and make a decision based on the most popular plan of attack. Maybe it will be a logical one, and maybe you readers are just sadistic and wanna see us try to heave axles that weigh more than some cars under our Dodge M43. Let us know...I'm waiting.


text: David Weinberg is a reporter for KCRW and former staff reporter at Marketplace. Before that, David freelanced for Marketplace from New Orleans and St. Louis, and worked odd jobs in Seattle, Alaska, Mexico and New York. He lives in Los Angeles with his wife and dog. He also hosts the podcast "Random Tape."Twitter: @randomtape


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On successful course completion, participants are eligible to receive a ScrumMaster certification (CSM) through the Scrum Alliance. The course fee includes a two-year membership in the Scrum Alliance, and costs associated with the newly-launched Scrum Master examination. Those that are Scrum Master certified possess all the knowledge and capabilities for applying Agile management within a Scrum project.
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text:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc has agreed to partner with Akamai Technologies Inc instead of competing with it on content delivery network (CDN) services, which deliver content faster by avoiding Internet congestion, sending Akamai's shares up 10 percent.
As part of their agreement, AT&T will transfer its existing CDN operations, customers and services to Akamai's platform in 2013, the company said on Thursday.
Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Richard Fetyko said that the agreement was important for Akamai as it effectively eliminates AT&T as a rival and potentially brings Akamai new business.
"It's an admission by one of the largest telcos that the CDN business is not an easy business to manage," said Fetyko who noted that investors had been concerned about the prospect of competition from big operators like AT&T.
"It shows investors that telcos are not likely to be competing with Akamai any time soon," he said, adding that Level 3 Communications was now the only telephone company in this market.
Shares in Akamai rival Limelight Networks Inc fell 2 percent after the news because of AT&T's choice of Akamai.
AT&T and Akamai said they will initially focus on North America and planned to expand globally within 12 months. They will connect Akamai CDN services to AT&T's network and share resources such as technical support and marketing.
Akamai shares were up $3.56 or 10 percent at $39.06 in morning trade on Nasdaq. AT&T shares were down 11 cents at $33.80 on the New York Stock Exchange. Limelight shares were down 4 cents at $2.03 on Nasdaq.
Reporting By Sinead Carew; Editing by Maureen Bavdek and Theodore d'Afflisio


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Fluid: Escape is the first of 3 short films in the Fluid series, from the Northern California Collective Consciousness. In Fluid: Escape, shot on 8 mil and set to a music-concrete soundtrack, the images flow liquid-like, approximating the rhythm of the choregos in Classical Greek theater and held together by the underlying theme of... escape!
This is a short, autobiographical essay film about using art as an escape from the limitations of a speech impediment. Filmmaker Daniel Kremer explores and parallels how Spalding Gray, the renowned monologue performance artist, used his own creative life as an escape from his own depression. An analogy is made to how the filmmaker used cinema to escape the pain of his stuttering disorder.
Based on a true story, a group of allied escape artist-type prisoners-of-war (POW's) are all put in an 'escape proof' camp. Their leader decides to try to take out several hundred all at once. The first half of the film is played for comedy as the prisoners mostly outwit their jailers to dig the escape tunnel. The second half is high adventure as they use boats and trains and planes to get out o
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ReleasesBack to
Paul Chambers
Lee Morgan Vol. 3 is the third album by jazz trumpeter Lee Morgan released on the Blue Note. It was recorded on March 24, 1957 and features performances by Morgan, Gigi Gryce,Benny Golson, Wynton Kelly, Paul Chambers and Charlie Persip. The Allmusic review by Scott Yanow calls the album "A fine hard bop date".


text:
Distinguished Mayors and City Councillors,
Ladies and Gentleman,
Thank you for inviting me to address this meeting. I would like to begin by commending you for the increased emphasis that you and your Monitoring Committee have placed on human rights issues. And I would like to congratulate you, Mr Molin, for a truly inspiring report. As well as containing numerous good practices to be shared and discussed, the theme of operationalising human rights obligations – as you highlight – is fundamental in my view. At the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights, we share your assessment that local and regional authorities play a key role in ensuring that those obligations become a lived reality for all people.
Human rights talk can sound abstract. But in fact, we exercise our rights daily:
- when we need access to services like education or need medical treatment
- when we benefit from working conditions that respect our health and safety
- when we feel that we are not treated fairly and want to complain about it.
As service providers, local and regional authorities facilitate the access to such rights on a daily basis.
Yet, the Fundamental Rights Agency's work has documented that for many individuals in Europe, human rights violations remain a daily experience. I'll illustrate this briefly with just a few figures:
- FRA's recent survey on violence against women showed that one in three women has experienced physical or sexual violence since the age of 15.
- In our Roma survey, 47% of respondents said they had experienced discrimination in the past 12 months because of their ethnic background.
- In the Agency's LGBT survey, more than 20 percent of LGBT people said they have been physically assaulted because of their sexual orientation in the 12 months preceding the survey.
- 54 percent of respondents to FRA's survey of Jewish communities said that expressions of hostility towards Jews in the street and other public places was a widespread problem.
Local and regional authorities have an obligation to support the fulfilment of human rights. They have the responsibility to respect human rights in their own work and to guarantee human rights respect for services that are commissioned, delegated or financed by them but carried out by other actors.
But it is also vital that human rights organisations and NGOs reach out to local and regional authorities and support them in their endeavours. Indeed, FRA has been working with cities across Europe for some years now, and we are seeing more and more of them taking action to increase knowledge and respect for human rights.
However, it has not all been plain sailing. The economic crisis has put a great strain on resources. This has led to debates about the level of human rights protection we can afford, even though we are currently living through a time when human rights are most needed, to
- protect children against poverty,
- safeguard vulnerable groups from becoming victims of hate crime, and
- ensure women at risk of domestic violence have access to shelters that protect them
- to combat exclusion and homelessness.
Ladies and gentlemen,
I would like now to focus on the issue of coordination between different levels of governance, which Lars Molin underlined in his report, and which the Fundamental Rights Agency views as particularly important. A lack of such coordination or cooperation can have alarming results, leading to human rights violations that could and should be avoided. For example,
- when citizens are not aware of the avenues they can take when their rights have been abused
- when European Union's structural funds for social inclusion remain untapped
- or when solid legislation remains unimplemented or ineffective.
To help improve the situation, FRA conducted a project that explored how human rights implementation can be made more effective by bringing together central government agencies, local government, specialised bodies, and private and voluntary organisations. We call this type of integrated planning and implementation joined-up human rights governance. Although the approach is well established for other public policies, it is still innovative in the area of human rights.
Through field research with local and regional government officials, we identified examples and models of effective multi-level cooperation on human rights. In September 2013, we compiled the lessons learned and key examples in an e-toolkit for national, regional and local public officials. We would like to offer this toolkit to the Congress to help you in raising awareness amongst local and regional authorities.
The toolkit covers five key areas, which we found to be particularly important for 'operationalising' human rights at local level:
- Mainstreaming human rights into municipal operations
Respecting human rights principles adds a fundamental perspective to looking at service delivery and screening existing policies and practices. It helps ensure that municipal operations are human rights compliant and meet the needs of all persons.
- Establishing multi-level and multi-agency partnerships
Human rights protection relies on cooperation and coordination between different spheres of governance, and in times of economic austerity, such cooperation is particularly important to ensure the pooling of resources and know-how. Mr Molin's report includes an interesting example from the Swedish city of Umea, where a 'Centre of Violence' is the result of organised cooperation between the municipality, the county council, the regional university, the police, the national prosecution authority and the national board of forensic medicine. This is an inspiring example in light of the need to implement the Istanbul Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence.
- Establishing mechanisms for civic participation and engagement with civil society
Public officials have a duty to safeguard the human rights of everybody in the community. Serving the community therefore entails reaching out to society's most vulnerable groups to protect them from human rights violations.
- Planning, monitoring and evaluating
Human rights need long-term commitment and support from many stakeholders at different levels. Coherent planning that involves key stakeholders ensures that policies, strategies and programmes are effective and lead to long-lasting, sustainable results.
- Communicating and raising awareness
While many people say they respect human rights, this can change all too quickly when activities have an impact on their own lifestyles or neighbourhoods – think of the opposition to homes for asylum-seekers, people with mental disabilities or for excluded young people. It is therefore important to:
- Anticipate friction and engage people early on
- Demonstrate the importance of human rights for society as a whole and the fact they result in 'win-win' scenarios for everyone involved
All this is discussed in our toolkit, which I invite you to read and explore on our website. In the future, I think the examples of good practice included in Mr Molin's report could be integrated into the toolkit to make it an even more useful tool.
Your report underlines the responsibility of authorities and politicians for the promotion of human rights and recommends to train them on human rights friendly policies and decision-making. I hope that you will FRA's work useful in this task.
To conclude,
I very much welcome your report and the fact that you explicitly call for cooperation between our organisations and with the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights. In our experience, progress can best be made through dialogue and cooperation between all constituent elements of the human rights architecture – from local and regional to national governments, parliaments to European and international bodies, national human rights structures and civil society. I therefore very much look forward to our future cooperation.
Thank you for your attention.


text:
Update on February 26, 2013
This just in from Wisconsin Wildlife Ethic-Vote on Wildlife's blog: http://bit.ly/YyKYgc (http://bit.ly/YyKYgc)
"Natural Resources Board Hearing Gets Heated
Despite massive public outcry the Natural Resources Board voted unanimously to continue the permeant "rule" making procedure for the use of wolves against dogs. They also decided not to consider any more "rules" for hounders at this time. One hounder representative even had the gall to act as though placing rules on their sadistic "sport" was "discrimination."
Hounder Al Loebner apparently thinks that he and his hounder brethren should be able to operate without any restrictions on their activities. Have you ever heard of a more demanding and self-entitled group of sadists in your life? This is what happens when you give these monsters everything they want and cower to their every whim. It is never enough.
Al Lobner, head of the Wisconsin Bear Hunters' Association, said the group is against further rules and said more strict rules would be "discriminating to those of us who prefer to hunt with hounds."
Lobner, questioned by the board, said he has never had a dog killed by a bear while hunting. He said he has never hunted wolves with dogs.
Well how generous of Lobner to admit that he has never hunted wolves with dogs. Maybe because until last year it was ILLEGAL. Lobner is also the one who boasted recently that he and his hounder ilk are looking at acquiring dogs like Airedales and wolf hounds to use against wolves. Never mind that these are dogs bred to fight and not "trail" wolves.
The outrage against these proposals are building and the members of the board know it. Apparently there were over 3,000 letter submitted to the Board with the vast majority speaking out against these outlandish proposals and the entire act of pitting wolves against dogs. This was just the first in what are supposed to be a number of "public hearings" about this issue.
As for Patricia losing her cool and 'threatening" the board members? She told the truth about how hounders operate and became emotional about it. I know Patricia well and while she is a firebrand, I doubt that she "intimidated" these people. From what I understand the board was aggressive with her from the beginning so I can understand why she became upset.
Wildlife advocates have just begun to have our voices heard on this issue and we need to keep up the pressure. I also want to thank all of you that took the time to write to the board speaking out against these disgusting proposals. If the DNR didn't know it before they know it now. We WILL NOT back down.
Read more here: http://bit.ly/X9ANTC (http://bit.ly/X9ANTC) "
We made our voices heard. They know that we won't leave this issue alone. They know that this is only the beginning!


text:
|Jepson Flora Project: Jepson Interchange
previous taxon |
next taxon
Jepson Interchange (more information)
©Copyright 1993 by the Regents of the University of California
Annual to shrubs, generally glandular, some green root-parasites
Stem generally round
Leaves generally alternate, simple, generally ± entire; stipules generally 0
Inflorescence: spike to panicle, generally bracted, or flowers 12 in axils
Flower bisexual; calyx lobes generally 5; corolla generally strongly bilateral, generally 2-lipped (upper lip generally 2-lobed, lower lip generally 3-lobed); stamens generally 4 in 2 pairs, generally included, a 5th (generally uppermost) sometimes present as a staminode; pistil 1, ovary superior, chambers generally 2, placentas axile, style 1, stigma lobes generally 2
Fruit: capsule, generally ± ovoid, loculicidal or septicidal
Seed: coat sculpture often characteristic
Genera in family: ± 200 genera, 3000 species: ± worldwide; some cultivated as ornamental (e.g., Antirrhinum, Mimulus, Penstemon ) or medicinal (Digitalis )
Recent taxonomic note: Recently treated to include only Buddleja, Scrophularia, and Verbascum in CA; other genera moved to Orobanchaceae (Castilleja, Cordylanthus, Orthocarpus, Pedicularis, Triphysaria), Phrymaceae (Mimulus), and Plantaginaceae (= Veronicaceae sensu Olmstead et al.)
Key to genera by Elizabeth Chase Neese & Margriet Wetherwax.
Annual, green root-parasites, generally much-branched
Leaves sessile, 011-lobed
Inflorescence: spike (subtended by outer bracts) or flowers solitary (each subtended by outer bracts) but often clustered; outer bracts ± leaf-like; inner bract calyx-like (formerly confused with calyx)
Flower: calyx generally divided to base in front, sheath-like, tip generally entire or shallowly notched; corolla ± club-shaped, upper lip beak-like, enclosing anthers and style, tip closed, lower lip ± = upper, pouched, middle lobe generally tightly rolled under; stamens generally 4, anther sacs 12 per stamen, unequal; style bent near tip, stigma unexpanded, ± exserted downward from closed beak tip
Fruit loculicidal
Seeds generally 1020, attached at side; coat netted or ridged, tight-fitting
Species in genus: 18 species: w North America
Etymology: (Greek: club-shaped flower)
[Chuang & Heckard, 1986 Syst Bot Monogr 10:1105] Close to Orthocarpus , distinguished by inflorescence and calyx. Generally flowers late summer.
Plant 1040 cm, gray-green, often tinged purple, glandular-puberulent and long-nonglandular-hairy
Leaf 1025 mm, ± oblong, entire to 7-lobed
Inflorescence: spike, 20150 mm; outer bract leaf-like; inner bract 1525 mm, ± pinnately 37-lobed
Flower: calyx 1520 mm; corolla 1520 mm, whitish, ± densely tomentose, middle lobe of lower lip erect; stamens 2 (lower pair vestigial), anther sacs 2; style glabrous
Seeds 2030, 13 mm, ± reniform, deeply netted, dark brown
Chromosomes: 2n=28 (both subspp.)
Ecology: Coastal and inland salt marshes
Elevation: < 10 m.
Bioregional distribution: c&s Great Central Valley, n Central Coast.


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Chance News 15
Take statistics. Sorry, but you'll find later in life that it's handy to know what a standard deviation is.
David Brooks
New York Times, March 2, 2006
This appears on a list of core knowledge that Brooks says will be sufficient to give you a great education even if you don't make Harvard.
From the February 2006 RSS news we have:
One primary school in East London has a catchment area of 110 metres.Sunday Telegraph
23 October 2005
More on medical studies that conflict with previous studies
Humans, being what they are, it is only natural that when a study's consequences seem plausible there is no need to look too closely. On the other hand, when the outcomes go against what was expected, a great deal of inspection is called for. This was discussed here.
The Wall Street Journal of February 28, 2006 details possible reasons for why the Women's Health Initiative might have had design flaws leading to "murky results." In summary, the WSJ reported:
- Calcium/Vitamin D study
- Message: Supplements don't protect bones or cut risk of colorectal cancer.
- Problem: Those in placebo group also took supplements in many cases.
- Message: Supplements don't protect bones or cut risk of colorectal cancer.
- Low-fat diet study:
- Message: Doesn't cut risk of breast cancer.
- Problem: Few met the fat goal.
- A 22% drop in risk for women who cut fat the most got little emphasis.
- Message: Doesn't cut risk of breast cancer.
- Hormone study:
- Message: No benefit, possible increased cancer and heart risk.
- Problem: Most in study were too old for this to apply to menopausal women.
- Message: No benefit, possible increased cancer and heart risk.
More generally, according to the WSJ, "Design problems in all of the trials mean the results don't really answer the questions they were supposed to address. And a flawed communications effort led to widespread misinterpretation of results by the news media and public."
In particular, in order to reduce the number of participants for the studies, "more than half [of the women] took part in at least two of them, and more that 5,000 were in all three trials." As might be imagined, "Among problems this posed was simple burnout" which "contributed to compliance problems that plagued all three and hurt the reliability of their results."
Another problem was the difficulty of double blinding for the hormone study since any hot flashes would indicate to the patient (and to her physician) that she was in the placebo arm; to get around this impediment, the vast majority of the women recruited were well past menopause, thus biasing the results against the benefits of hormone replacement.
So where are we after 68,132 female participants, "fifteen years and $725 million later"? More than likely, the Women's Health Initiative study will be in and out of the news for some time to come because of its ambiguity.
Submitted by Paul Alper
Economists analyze the tv show "Deal or No Deal?"
Why game shows have economists glued to their TVs
Wall Street Journal, Jan. 12, 2006
Charles Forelle
Economists Learn from Game Show 'Deal or No Deal'
NPR, March 3, 2006, All things considered
David Kestenbaum
Deal or No Deal? Decision making under risk in a large-payoff game show
Thierry Post, Martijn Van Den Assem, Guido Baltussen, Richard H. Thaler
February 2006
The authors of the research paper write:
The popular television game show "Deal or No Deal" offers a unique opportunity for analyzing decision making under risk: it involves very large and wide-ranging stakes, simple stop-go decisions that require minimal skill, knowledge or strategy and near-certainty about the probability distribution.
Here is a nice description of the game from the MS Math in the Media magazine:
- Twenty-six known amounts of money, ranging from one cent to one million dollars, are (symbolically) randomly placed in 26 numbered, sealed briefcases. The contestant chooses a briefcase. The unknown sum in the briefcase is the contestant's.
- In the first round of play, the contestant chooses 6 of the remaining 25 briefcases to open. Then the "banker" offers to buy the contestant's briefcase for a sum based on its expected value, given the information now at hand, but tweaked sometimes to make the game more interesting. The contestant can accept ("Deal") or opt to continue play ("No Deal").
- If the game continues, 5 more briefcases are opened in the second round, another offer is made, and accepted or refused. If the contestant continues to refuse the banker's offers, subsequent rounds open 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 briefcases until only two are left.
- The banker makes one last offer; the contestant accepts that offer or takes whatever money is in the initially chosen briefcase.
So the banker is always trying to buy out the player. If he fails the player will end up with the amount in his suitcase.
The best way to understand the game is to play it here on the NBC website.
We did this playing the only the first round. We chose number 13 for our briefcase. We were then asked to choose six briefcases. We chose suitcases 3,10,12,13,19, 25. Here is the result of this round:
Our six choices eliminated the amounts 1, 50, 75, 300, 400,000, 500,000. The expected value of our suitcase is now the average of the amounts in the remaining suitcases. Making this calculation We find that this is $125,900 (rounded to the nearest dollar). The banker has offered us $29,854 to quit. So We would have to be pretty risk adverse to accept the banker's offer at this point.
In order to see if the banker's offers get better, we played a second game in which we refused all the banker's offers. With this strategy we start with an expected winning given by the average of the initial amounts which we found to be $131,478.
We then played all 9 rounds. In each round we recalculated the expected amount in our briefcase and recorded the banker's offer but refused it. Here are the results:
Expected Value
We note that the banker's offer at each round is less than the expected amount in our suitcase. While it seems clear at the beginning we are right to refuse the offer, as we get nearer the end this is not so obvious. For example, after the 8th round the only amounts available were $400, $25,000, and $1,000,000. We are offered $317,700, which is a pretty nice amount of money. If we reject it we would have a 2/3 chance of ending up with a relatively small amount and a 1/3 chance of getting the million dollars. We might well be risk averse at this point and accept the offer. However, we didn't and the suitcase the chose had the $400. Now the only amounts left were $25,000 and $1,000,000. We are now offered $367,500. Again we might think twice about refusing this. But we did refuse it and we opened the last suitcase, which had the million dollars, and so our suitcase had $25,000. If you watch the TV program you will find that most contestants refuse the banker's offers in the early rounds but accept it in one of the later rounds.
Deal or No Deal was introduced in Australia in 2003 and currently airs in 38 countries. Post and his co-authors obtained videos of 53 episodes from Australia and the Netherlands. From these they determined, for each contestant and each round, the situation the contestant faced in terms of the amounts of money in the remaining briefcases, the banker's offer and their decision to accept or refuse the offer. They then analyze this data using a measure of relative risk aversion developed by Arrow and Pratt (RRA). The authors write:
In every game round, a unique RRA coefficient can be determined at which the contestant would be indifferent between accepting and rejecting the bank offer. If the contestant accepts the offer, his RRA must be higher than this value; if the offer is rejected, his RRA must be lower.
They also investigate how this RRA changes according to other variables such as estimated income and education.
The authors find that, for a wealth level of €25,000, an average over all the contestants gives an RRA 1.61. This estimate decreases when the wealth level decreases and increases when it increases. The degree of risk aversion differs strongly across the contestants, some exhibiting strong risk averse behavior (RRA > 5) and others risk seeking behavior (RRA < 0). They say:
The degree of risk aversion differs strongly across the contestants, some exhibiting strong risk averse behavior (RRA > 5) and others risk seeking behavior (RRA< 0). The differences can be explained in large part by the earlier outcomes experienced by the contestants in previous rounds of the game. Most notably, RRA generally decreases following losses. Contestants facing a large reduction in the expected prize during the game even exhibit risk seeking behavior.
(1) Suppose that at each round the banker offered you the expected value of the amount in your briefcase and you were only interested in maximizing your expected winning. Would it matter when you stopped?
(2) On the web version, the banker is oviously using an algorithm to determine the amount of money to offer you on a particular round which depends only on information available at the beginning of the round. Professor Post tells us:
The bank behaved in a predictable manner, with offers around 5-10% of expected value in round one and 100% in the later rounds. Also, for losers, the offers are relatively generous, sometimes exceeding 100%.
Assume that, based on this information, we make a model for the banker's offers. How would you determine the optional stopping rule?
Submited by Laurie Snell
Sexual prediction
Predicting the sex of fetus has been around for as long as children have been born. According to Roger Dobson of The Independent (March 7, 2006) there are many "theories from the wilder side."
- Coffee: If a man has coffee before sex, the Y-sperm is more active and likely to result in a boy.
- Dreams: Whatever sex of child a mother dreams of having, she will have the opposite.
- Age: As a mother gets older, her chance of conceiving a boy increases.
- Positions: Missionary position is best for a girl, says Italian folklore.
- Underwear: Men who wear loose underwear are more likely to produce boys.
And several others which we would also view as less than scientific. Now, however, modern methods of predictions with probabilities attached exist. Unfortunately, it is difficult to tell from the article whether it is P(X|Y) or P(Y|X). For example, "The Whelan method, named after Dr. Elizabeth Whelen," and depends on the timing of ovulation, "is claimed to be some 68 per cent effective for boys and 56 per cent for girls." Assuming that boys and girls are equally likely and "effective" means P(Test Boy|Boy) = .68, and P(Test Girl|Girl) = .56, translates via Bayesian inversion to a not very impressive P(Boy|Test Boy) = .61 and P(Girl|Test Girl) =.64.
"Another technique, the MicroSort method" which depends on DNA relating to the difference in size of the X and Y chromosomes, yields "success" rates of 88 per cent for girls and 73 per cent for boys. Assuming again that boys and girls are equally likely and "success" is synonymous with "effective," this translates via Bayesian inversion to a slightly more striking P(Boy|Test Boy) = .86 and P(Girl|Test Girl) =.77.
None of these methods can compare with that of the Acu-Gen Biolab which claims 99.9 per cent "accuracy," a term which sounds like "effective" or "success" but may not mean anything because some mothers who paid $25 for the kit and the $250 for the analysis wound up with a child of the other kind than what they were told. According to the Boston Globe (March 1, 2006), "Alleging that their pregnancies had been marred by fraud, 16 women have filed a class-action lawsuit against a Lowell laboratory that promises to determine the gender of an embryo by testing the mother's blood just five weeks after conception. In the suit filed in US District Court in Boston, the women charged that despite its claim of 99.9 percent accuracy, Acu-Gen Biolab of Lowell got the genders of their babies wrong, causing confusion and distress, and then refused to make good on its double-your-money-back guarantee."
Whether believer or buyer, always beware.
1. What are the ethical implications of an inexpensive, non-invasive sex prediction procedure which is available very early on in a pregnancy? What are the implications for the anti-abortion movement and for the pro-choice adherents?
2. Comment upon the linguistic dangers of using ordinary English, as in "effective," "success" and "accuracy" for well-defined statistical concepts.
3. Are you surprised that Acu-Gen Biolab "refused to make good on its double-your-money-back guarantee"? What excuses or reasons do you think the firm would give for claiming the fault lies with the woman and not with the technique?
Submitted by Paul Alper
Some children left behind
Joseph Stalin's famous quote regarding elections, "The people who count the votes decide everything" has an analogy to the bizarre world of the No Child Left Behind Act. Regardless of the merits of the act, it is in the interests of those who will be judged by this law to look good. As a consequence, it appears that there are several ways, other than outright cheating or the students actually testing higher, to make the numbers come out better.
In Minnesota, according to James Walsh of the Minneapolis Star Tribune (March 6, 2006), the trick is to have the low-scoring students take a different test. "To some, it may look like we're gaming the system" says Tim Vansickle, the Minnesota director of assessments. Minnesota does have many students whose native language is not English and Vansickle denies that the alternative test is not meant to help schools keep off "the list" of schools deemed failing.
Another technique according to Jay Mathews of the Washington Post (February 28, 2006), is to engage in strange arithmetic. He quotes Monte Dawson, the testing and assessment director for Alexandria, Virginia: "Remediation Recovery, which has been around since 2001, means that fourth grade students who failed the third grade test in 2004, got to retake the third grade test in 2005. Up until this year (2005), if they passed the third grade test, then they were included in the numerator only of the calculation to determine the third grade passing score. As illustration, if 4 out of 5 third grade students passed and 1 out of 5 fourth grade Remediation Recovery students passed, the passing percentage would be 100 percent."
Mathews, the Washington Post's education columnist, is puzzled by this explanation so he leaves it to the spokesman for the Virginia Department of Education, Charles Pyle. Mathews translates Pyle's remarks thusly: "in 2000, the state school board changed the counting procedure to encourage more schools to do what Maury [the school featured in the article] did -- give the students who failed some extra help and let them try again. Often the second-test passing rates of students who flunk a test initially are lower than their class's overall passing rate, since they are the class's weakest students. So if those second-test results were combined with the first test results in the usual way, it would likely lower the overall percentage and make the school look worse than otherwise. School districts in Virginia figured this out and resisted the urge to work with their lowest-performing students and test them again."
Therefore, to avoid this inevitable drop in performance should a school actually try to help its students rather than game the system, Mathews uses the following illustration: "To give schools an incentive to make that effort, the school board ordered an unorthodox change in the way the school percentage would be calculated after the retesting. If a school had 100 students, with 30 failing the test the first time and 10 of those passing the test the second time, they could add 10 to the 70 who passed the first time, divide those 80 passing students by 100, and get a nice boost from 70 to 80 percent in their passing rate. Done the conventional way, they would have had to add 30 to the denominator as they added 10 to the numerator, and gotten a passing rate of only 62 percent, lower than the 70 percent rate they had before."
Stalin was undoubtedly an evil person but his remark about defining and controlling the counting and evaluation procedure has many followers who probably don't realize the inspiration for their creativity. Perhaps the moral of the story for statisticians is the well-known dictum, "the data never speaks for itself." People have great ingenuity particularly when it comes to guarding their vested interests via number manipulation.
1. Is the purpose of the No Child Left Behind Act punishment of teachers and administrators or is the purpose to improve performance of the students?
2. Why is the Act controversial?
3. If the rules of the game allow the numerator to increase while not changing the denominator, what is there to complain about?
4. If you were a teacher or administrator would you be tempted to suggest to your poorer performing students to stay home on the day of the test?
Submitted by Paul Alper
Norton Starr sugested the next article.
The future divined by the crowd
The Future Divined by the Crowd
New York Times, March 11, 2006
Joe Nocere
Michael Mauboussin is a well known Wall Street strategist who also is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. Every year since 1993 he has asked his students to vote for the winners in 12 catagories including major and relatively obscure contests. We read:
This year, the pick that got the most votes — the consensus pick, he calls it — turned out to be right in 9 of the 12 categories, including, amazingly enough, film editing and art direction. And yet, of the 47 students who participated, only one matched the accuracy of the consensus. None did better, and most did much worse; according to Mr. Mauboussin, the average number of correct answers per ballot this year was only 4.1. "It has never failed," he said. "The consensus invariably does much better than the average student."
The article also discusses other evidence that consensus predictions are often better than individual predictions such as the Iowa Electronic Market (Chance News 13.06 ,Holywood Stock Exchange Chance News 12.02), and a new one HedgeStreet whose moto is: "It's your economy. Trade it."


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|Portage, Mich.
|High School:
|Outside Hitter
The Ferris State University women's volleyball program has bolstered its lineup with the addition of prep outside/middle hitter Elle Humphries (Portage/Central), who recently committed to the Bulldogs and will be a freshman during the 2013 campaign.
A 5-11 hitter, Humphries was an honorable mention all-state honoree for Portage Central High School in 2012 as the Mustangs won both a conference and district championship under head coach Dawn Jaqua. She's both a two-time All-South Michigan Athletic Conference (SMAC) and all-district pick.
"Elle is an athlete with a great deal of potential," said FSU head coach Tia Brandel-Wilhelm, who led the Bulldogs to their 17th all-time NCAA Tournament berth this past season. "She's very strong and has good speed.
"Although she's still young in the sport of volleyball, we're thrilled to add someone of her athletic ability, competitive nature and strong values."
Humphries served as a team captain this past year for Portage Central and has also played for the Dead Frogs Under 17-18 club squad that won the bronze division in the 2012 national tournament.
Along with volleyball, Humphries has also competed in varsity soccer and basketball for PCHS. She was both an all-league and all-district soccer player the past two seasons. Additionally, she's played competitive travel soccer and softball.
In addition to her athletic accomplishments, Humphries has also been active in the school yearbook and has served as a school ambassador.
The daughter of Joe and Marshon Humphries, Elle comes from an athletic background. Her father played baseball at Western Michigan while her mother competed in track and field for the Broncos. In addition, her sister Shelby has been a member of the women's soccer team at Grand Valley State.
Elle plans to major in biology at Ferris State.


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a simple solution to world hunger
Watch Generation Hope
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14 May 2018
By Mary Stokes in Messages from Malawi
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Mary's Meals
17 March 2019
Happy St Patrick's Day from everyone at Mary's Meals!May joy and peace surround you,
contentment latch your door,
and happiness be with you now
and bless you ever more.– An Irish blessing
19 March 2019
Tomorrow is #InternationalDayofHappiness! We hope this joyful clip will help bring a smile to your face. https://t.co/CFX75hrz4U
13 November 2018
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Question of the day: Why does it feel so good, after 70 miles, to finally hit a solid climb? What is it about a climb that rejuvenates your spirits and somehow lightens the load on your legs? You would have been willing, for a good reason, to pack it in but now that you're on a real climb you feel like you can go on forever?
Last year, by mid-February Kevin and I had already done our first 100+ miler, the classic Woodside/Santa Cruz loop (112 miles from home in Redwood City). Things got off to a slow start this year though, mostly due to Kevin's various issues with his kidney, but early this week his stent was removed (finally!) and it was time to get back to basics.
Thank goodness the weather forecast was incorrect. I had been concerned about riding in a drizzly fog, but it was so nice out we needed (but did bring) neither leg warmers nor light jackets. It probably helped that we didn't hit the road until 11am, definitely a bit on the late side for a run to Santa Cruz, but not unusual at all for us (obviously, our ride in February last year must have started a lot earlier or we wouldn't have gotten back before dark!).
Old LaHonda was ridden at a moderate pace, ending up around 23 minutes for the climb after hanging back for a bit to chat briefly with one of our customers. Kevin followed the plan and rode at the same pace, rather than the sub-20 he would like to, but he's so short on miles it didn't seem like a good idea for him to burn too many matches too early in the ride. Yet it was such a nice day there was no way you could completely hold back, so even Haskins ended up being close to a 10-minute climb, a couple minutes faster than I thought likely.
Thank goodness the prevailing winds held out! It wasn't a direct tailwind heading down the coast, but it was close. I'd already decided that, if we got to the coast and it was going to be a headwind into Santa Cruz, we'd be reversing course and doing a shorter ride. No need. We arrived for "lunch" at the Whale City Bakery in Davenport, downing a ham & cheese croissant, coke and a cookie for Kevin, raspberry muffin for me. That took care of us for the run south to Santa Cruz then up Highway 9 to Boulder Creek for the obligatory Mtn Dew stop before the long climb up to Skyline.
Skyline. We've grown to depend on Mr. Mustard's hot-dog stand on Skyline for drinks and… yeah, hot-dogs. Mile 80 in a long ride and a hot-dog actually goes down really well. But we were in Davenport past 2pm, and didn't leave Boulder Creek until 4:15, and Mr. Mustard leaves shortly after 5! Yikes. We had money for the coke machine at the Saratoga Gap fire station, but it's just not the same. Fortunately, once we got onto the real climb, the legs started working again and we actually got some Strava-worthy times, personal bests (for the past 4 or 5 years; I was certainly a lot faster back in the pre-pre-pre-Strava days) for both of us. Mr. Mustard hadn't packed up yet so we scored the usual… hot-dog and a drink!
From there it was the easy north run on Skyline to Sky Londa, returning home not much past 6:30. Plenty of light, still nice out. Great ride.


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Great experience, and I couldn't be happier with my wedding ring... I wouldn't go to any other jeweler!
and You + Your Friend
Over the past decade Steinhausen has become one of the most recognizable watch and watch winder brands in the world. Starting with the stunning reissue of the 1923 Steinhausen Classic to the modern marvel of the Dunn Horitzon Ultra-thin calendar watch, Steinhausen has become known for its traditional styles and breathtaking modern designs.
every watch is backed y the Steinhausen quality lifetime guarantee on the movements. A warranty card is included in the packaging. Most Steinhausen watches include a luxury faux leather travel case with micro-suede lining.
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Forum registration temporarily disabled
In order to prevent the forums from being filled with spam, I have had to disable new user registration. You can request registration by joining the chat room and sending me a request if you wish. But until I have time to figure out a way to prevent spam bots from clogging up the forums, it is disabled. Feel free to read this post for more details: http://den.spicylemons.com/viewthread.php?tid=3104
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Star Wars: The New Era was the first large Star Wars modification attempt made on Source Engine. It was produced by Invision Games, a group of over 60 modders and Star Wars fans that have evolved from the Movie Battles 2 community and a mod team working on "Star Wars: Source" before. Star Wars: The New Era was supposed to become a class-based multiplayer experience featuring objective-based scenarios. The project was abandoned in 2013 after all of the remaining team members dropped due to time constraints after starting to study or working in the industry. Initially, the latest state of the mod was planned to be released under Creative Commons license to allow the community to continue the work. Unfortunately, getting in contact with many former team members in order to open-source their work did not work out, so the decision was made not to release any assets without express permit by the respective authors.
The brand new TNE matte painting from the game's menu as a wallpaper in the formats 1920x1080 (widescreen) and 1280x1024.
tne wallpaper pack 2 wallpapers
A collection of 3 cinematic wallpapers for the Star Wars: The New Era mod
the new era wallpaper pack wallpapers
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Bob Dylan is flipping through his own back pages. He has finally started writing an autobiography. It began as liner notes for rereleases of his back-catalog albums; he has finished about 200 pages, or perhaps 150--he's not exactly certain. "My retrievable memory, it goes blank on incidents and things that have happened," says Dylan. He has trouble, sometimes, remembering events from decades past, when he was conjuring up albums like Highway 61 Revisited and unleashing songs like Maggie's Farm. So he is collecting anecdotes about himself that other people have told and weaving them into his narrative. Here's the touch that's...
Legend Of Dylan
The grand old man of rock's latest album adds a rollickingly good chapter to the
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Bus tickets from Vallenar to Baquedano are being sold from Ciktur, Pullman Bus.
The distance between Vallenar to Baquedano is (N/A) and you can choose between the services Semi Cama, Salón Cama; dependent on the bus company you travel with (Ciktur, Pullman Bus).
Information about the city Vallenar
Vallenar is a city and commune in Atacama Region, Chile. Vallenar is the capital of the Huasco Province and is located in the valley of the Huasco River. Vallenar has 52,000 inhabitants. Its main activities are farming and mining. Vallenar was founded as San Ambrosio de Ballenary by Ambrose O'Higgins in 1789, after his birthplace in Ballynary in County Sligo, Ireland. Llanos de Challe National Park is located 60 km (37 mi) northwest of the city of Vallenar.
Source: Wikipedia
Information about the city Baquedano
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By Shawn Langlois
Good morning.
Risk on. That's the mantra echoing across cyberspace this morning after the S&P closed Friday at a level not seen since the year Rihanna's "Umbrella" topped the charts.
According to this "Bear Carnage" post on the Dynamic Hedge blog, last week's kick-start rally was "one of the most clear examples of a risk-on trade" in memory. Destination: S&P 1,500.
The pronounced move out of the safe assets accumulated as an end-of-year hedge and into equities has several pundits calling for a "tipping point" to the upside. As Josh Brown put it in his Pink Floyd-inspired assessment: "The trickling rotation from bonds to stocks could quickly become a torrent after so much doubt and loathing."
In keeping with the theme, MarketWatch contributor Michael Gayed has been pounding the table on this rotation for awhile, and nothing has happened lately to have him backing away from his call for the "Winter breakout of 2013."
If this so-called torrent/breakout is, indeed, imminent, you wouldn't know it judging from the sluggish premarket action we're seeing in the U.S. market.
Key market gauges: Futures on the Dow /quotes/zigman/9049316 YMH3 and the S&P /quotes/zigman/8751039 ESH3 are just hanging around where the major indexes ended last week, while Europe /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP and Asia /quotes/zigman/6959860 XX:ADOW are trickling lower.
The buzz: A break from the incessant political downpour could be on tap for much of this week as the focus turns squarely to earnings season, beginning with Alcoa /quotes/zigman/246295 /quotes/nls/aa AA on Tuesday. Also on the earnings schedule in the coming days are Wells Fargo /quotes/zigman/239557 /quotes/nls/wfc WFC , Monsanto /quotes/zigman/267799 /quotes/nls/mon MON and Texas Instruments /quotes/zigman/243184 /quotes/nls/txi TXI .
Among the top-trending tickers, Illumina /quotes/zigman/83650 /quotes/nls/ilmn ILMN shares are in for a rough session, down 14% in premarket trading after pharmaceutical giant Roche said it's not considering a bid for the company.
Sequenom /quotes/zigman/101383 /quotes/nls/sqnm SQNM and Life Technologies /quotes/zigman/112769 /quotes/nls/life LIFE are also trending, as are Molycorp. /quotes/zigman/595467 /quotes/nls/mcp MCP and Nvidia /quotes/zigman/80597 /quotes/nls/nvda NVDA , which held its press event at the Consumer Electronics Show last night. Read: Stocks to watch.
The chart of the day: Citi's economic "surprise" indicator (ECO) has taken a big turn for the worse, as Zero Hedge points out, touching on a three-month low. What's it mean? The index tracks the absolute performance of the major macro data points as well as their relative performance to expectations, and a negative move like this could be signalling a "significant downturn" in the S&P. Read the full post.
The call of the day: Michael Arold just made what he calls "the most unpopular trade these days." He shorted gold. Why? Well, he says he likes unconventional trades but he also lays out five points to back his case, including the aforementioned broad move into risk assets, the metal's stagnant price despite record negative real interest rates and its decline after the December QE4 announcement. He said gold /quotes/zigman/4331913 GCG3 could fall down to $1,300 without even violating its long-term uptrend.
Random reads: This shouldn't be much of a surprise, but it's worth checking out anyway. Almost all Wall Street soothsayers got it wrong with their 2012 market predictions, according to this story from Bloomberg.
Take it from a transplant with a new-found appreciation for football: Watch the 60 Minutes segment on Messi, Cesc and the rest of the Barcelona gang, perhaps "the greatest football team that's ever been seen."
A look at how John McAfee says he ran a sizable spy operation by passing out 75 malware-infested laptops to key people and hiring a ring of 29 "operatives."
Four times a day a traveler is caught trying to bring a gun onto an airplane in the U.S. In fact, 2012 marked a new record for such instances. Read the full story.
Um, $1.76 million for ONE fish?
Can't tell if your breath stinks? Ask your iPhone.
Need to Know starts early and is updated as needed until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your e-mail box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The e-mailed version will be sent out at approximately 8:45 a.m. Eastern. Follow @slangwise on Twitter.


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Inspiration Monday! Bulbs and a Spring Freshening
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Well, it's steamy as Hades and our bulb plants are long gone, but I know a lot of you who have been buried in snow for months are finally seeing some tulips and daffodils! This morning the Vera Company posted this picture on Facebook*
It's time to embrace color and bright greens, in your wardrobe and your home. For a quick home makeover, do a few quick and cheap things:
1) Switch out your living room throw pillow covers for a new color scheme. Maybe even through a white slipcover over your sofa.
2) Change your duvet cover for something more fresh and springy. Take those heavy blankets and quilts to the cleaners and then stow them for the next six months.
3) Treat yourself to some new and vibrant placemats and/or a tablecloth. Gather up a few fresh blooms and put them in your favorite vases or mason jars and pop them around the house.
4) Hit the nursery and make sure all the seeds you need for your edible garden. Depending on where you live, you may want to plant them this week!
5) Spring cleaning is a deep cleaning but for now, just get organized. Gather your supplies and clean out the spot where you keep said supplies. Throw your rags and cloths in a cute bucket and organize your cleaners (i.e. do you have three bottles of window cleaner with 2″ left in each? Then combine bottle). Once you are done with this stuff, you can really get buy on vinegar, water, and baking soda for most of your cleaning news!
- photo by Flickr member coanri
*I swear I have wound up following the most random stuff on Facebook, which I am sure Big Brother is collecting in to work on my FBI profile while marketing companies pay big bucks to see so they can bombard me with ads down the side for crap like "Join Kim Kardashian's Shoe Society" – is that last one because once I jokingly put "Becky is keeping up with the Kardashians" as my status? I wonder if they realize half of it is because someone suggested I like their page and I thought "why not make them feel good"? Facebook is freaky. But I digress.


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Brands that Kaehler has chosen to partner with have been selected for two reasons: the unique viewpoint they have in luggage, and the consistency with which they can continually deliver in bag designs.
When you are searching for a piece of luggage it can be overwhelming, but browsing our selection by brand allows you to make a choice through definitive brand identities that are known for their enduring quality. Each brand that Kaehler carries brings something different to the table. Everything from business bags to the outdoor travel gear necessary to summit a mountain you can find among our brands.
Browsing our collections ensures that you can fall in love with a brand that offers you a well-rounded travel experience, rather than shopping for individual pieces that will leave you wanting more. Kaehler provides a superb travel selection that we have organized by brands who have the ability to forge a new identity in the face of luggage today. Our brands' breadth of design is an impressive sight to see. Kaehler carries innovative bag makers like Pacsafe and Knomo, lifestyle bags by Baggallini and Boconi , and fine leather wallet designs by Bellroy. There are many reasons to take note of these brands, but their identities as leaders in craft, design, and overall function are what carry throughout each collection.
When shopping with Kaehler you get the benefit of having our 90+ years of experience in quality luggage retail. We can truly say that we only carry the best in travel luggage and that any choice within our vast brand selection is a quality choice.
TUMI - Arrive' - International Dual Access 4Wheel Carry-On
Regular Price: $1,550.00
Now only: $1,240.00
TUMI - Arrive' - Sadler Brief
Regular Price: $895.00
Now only: $716.00
TUMI - Arrive' - Larson Backpack
Regular Price: $850.00
Now only: $680.00
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My humble opinion says promote it. But this brings up a question... In a non-BJCP, people's choice competition, is it kosher (sorry) to have beer and cider on one ballot?
Hell, I've mixed beer, mead and cider together in a BJCP BOS in some of these tiny competitions around the area. I think non-BJCP peoples' choice would be just fine.


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LogicalApps: Tweaking the RulesBy Brian P. Watson | Posted 2006-06-07 Print
LogicalApps requires configuation to generate a clear picture of a company's finances, but generates reports quickly and helps pinpoint potential crimes.
LogicalApps excels in the Sarbanes-Oxley compliance realm and can help keep companies fraud-free, though some customers using previous versions of its software say the high number of access conflicts it flags resulted in heavy lifting.
Emulex, a networking storage adapter and switch maker, found LogicalApps' AppsAccess software very straightforward to implement. Every one of the company's 528 employees uses its Oracle applications, from filing expense reports to placing purchase orders. For Pat Moran, Emulex's senior Oracle application developer, granting appropriate access to those systems became a top priority three years ago, as the company pushed to get in compliance with Sarbanes-Oxley.
Moran used LogicalApps to manage financial controls while weeding out potential fraud or impropriety. He says one advantage of AppsAccess was its ability to generate a report for auditors, instead of his team having to manually compile it, which cut down on time needed to complete an internal review.
Using the LogicalApps tools, Emulex finished its segregation-of-duties project in three months, without any custom programming or new procedures. Without the software, Moran figures it would have taken twice as long.
"It's good to know a lot of data-entry errors didn't happen" because the LogicalApps software is in place to prevent employees from making them, he says. "It makes for a good night's sleep."
But others have hit bumps in the road. Christopher Aanes, senior director of internal audit for hard-drive maker Western Digital, had high hopes when he deployed LogicalApps' AppsAccess program to control access to functions in his company's Oracle systems for 1,500 employees.
Aanes, though, didn't realize the software would require extensive configuration before it could be useful. Out of the box, the LogicalApps program identified 450 types of potential conflicts; for example, if an employee has privileges to both generate and approve invoices. However, Aanes didn't consider many of these to be problematic, because Western Digital employees are frequently granted access to complete multiple tasks in the Oracle system.
"Did we know we needed to tailor it?" Aanes says. "Maybe we had kind of a Pollyannaish view, but we didn't expect it."
Aanes says he would have rather seen a "Top 30" list of conflicts, ranked in order of risk. Still, he acknowledges that he could have done more to speed up the configuration of the software by dedicating more staff to the project.
Paul Kaminski, manager of internal controls at Millipore, a biosciences company based in Billerica, Mass., ran into another frustrating problem. When the LogicalApps program finds a conflict, it generates an identification code, which gets sent to an administrator. But if one employee has six conflicts, six separate codes are created, producing both multiple reports and confusion.
"That's the kind of user inconvenience we'd like to eliminate as quickly as possible," Kaminski says.
Mike Rudolph, LogicalApps' vice president of product management, says version 7.0 of AppsAccessavailable in the first quarter of 2006provides improved controls that make administrative tasks easier. For example, the new version can group similar conflicts into umbrella categories for easier management, and allows additional information to be associated with each conflict (like labeling it a high, medium or low risk).
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Saw these wonderfully splendid ideas and had to share right away!
Look at what you can make with Hero Arts BIRDHOUSE TAG clear Stamp set!
What do you think of this Season's Greetings card? It uses Hero Arts Stunning Snowflakes rubber Stamp and Holiday Gift Tags Clear Stamp set (click on the names of any stamp or set here to see the actual stamp in our store)
This card also uses the VERY VERSATILE Holiday Gift Tags Clear Stamp set:
Need Bling?!!! OH WE JUST LOVE BLING At Simon! We've been known to throw in a package or two of it to our favorite customers ;) Click HERE To see our clear Gems and click HERE to see our red and green all in one set bling gemstones! There are LOTS more colors available, please be sure to stop by and take a peek ;)
Thanks for stopping by our blog! Have a great weekend!!!!!
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Press Release - Odd Fellows Links Restored and Reinstalled on December 4, 2012
December 2012 Odd Fellows Links Restoration - Technical Notes
Like Lodge Hall, this building was constructed in 1903 and is now home to Redmond's Bar & Grill. Built as a community gathering hall, it has been used by the Eagles and the Independent Order of Odd Fellows, which occupied the building until 1973.
The Odd Fellows Hall was built in 1903 by Herman S. Reid. It is constructed from handpicked lumber from Peterson's sawmill on Avondale. It was Redmond's first community and entertainment hall and its first movie house with a projectionist. The building hosted local celebrities including Daphne Rosford Foss - an improvising pianist, accompanying silent movies if the sound system failed, and even entertaining crowds from Seattle. This structure is important because it dates to an early period in Redmond's development and is a rare example of a surviving wood frame building in the community.
In 1926, the Independent Order of Odd Fellows (IOOF) purchased the building, and when Bill Brown's Saloon closed due to prohibition, Redmond's Saturday night dances moved to this venue. The Order of Odd Fellows is a fraternal organization where residents could reach out and provide support to one another in times of need.
In 1970, Edwardian Antiques occupied the building and later the Odd Fellow's Grill. It is now occupied by Redmond's Bar & Grill. Today this building represents one of the city's earliest efforts to promote community welfare in Redmond as it provided a gathering place where all citizens could enjoy a sense of belonging, ensure the growth of community, and ensure that every knew that they could depend on one another in times of prosperity as well as crisis. And, aspects of community gathering continue at this location today.


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Liberty News
International students host Taste of the Nations
More than 1,400 Liberty University students, faculty, staff and visiting mission representatives packed the Schilling Center Wednesday night for the Taste of the Nations international food tasting.
The event, now in its sixth year, was organized by Liberty's Office of International Student Services and was part of Missions Emphasis Week.
"It brings the U.S. together with all the different countries from around the world," said Sharon Bloomfield, associate director of admissions for graduate and international students. "Americans get to sample foods from other parts of the world and international students get a chance to prepare their food and showcase it to some Americans."
There are currently 912 international students enrolled at Liberty.
China, Haiti, Korea, Ecuador, India, Thailand, Argentina, Uzbekistan, Burkina, and the United States were among the 21 countries represented at Taste of the Nations.
"You get to know other cultures and also you get to experience what other people think about your food -- because for you it's really good, but you don't know what other people think," said Joy Huertas, a freshman international student from Colombia. "This was a really good experience and a really good thing Liberty does."
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