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Literacy and Learning
Dorothy Williams
inchapter, Dorothy Williams explores important new understandings and ideas about information literacy and other literacies of relevance to learning in higher education. Arguing that the information process and the learning process are closely intertwined, she identifies information literacy as a meta-competency that in the networked environment encompasses other literacies such as media literacy, digital literacy and e-literacy. She notes the increasing emphasis, in emerging definitions of information literacy, not only on information sources and searching but also on higher-order capabilities relating to information use in knowledge creation and sharing, and she suggests that there are implications here for the design of information literacy programmes. At the same time she suggests a need to develop new pedagogical approaches — in particular, approaches that engage closely with learners' personal experiences and conceptions of information seeking and use in specific contexts, and encourage critical reflection on differing approaches and perspectives. This in turn suggests a redefinition of the librarian's role as information literacy educator, with a shift away from direct instruction towards a key role in facilitating the dialogical interactions between learner and tutor, and among learners, that are at the heart of constructivist and relational conceptions of learning and teaching.
The ability to find, critically evaluate and use information meaningfully in response to need has long been recognized as central to learning and decision-making. The library and information profession has consistently argued for its significance in relation to a wide range of learning theorie: and educational concepts in the English-speaking world over many year: — independent learning, resource-based learning, problem-based learning and critical thinking, to name but a few. It is argued that schools, college: and universities need to ensure learners develop confidence ir information handling to equip them to make decisions and cope with change throughout life, as active critical citizens, life-long learners and evidence-based practitioners.
By the last decade of the 20th century the term 'information literacy', initially coined in the 1970s (Carbo, 1997), had become widely used in the library and information profession to denote the ability to search for, evaluate and use information. Yet it could be said that there have been as many attempts to define the precise nature of information literacy as there have been learning theories. Indeed it is often difficult to distinguish between what might be seen as a description of the information process and as a description of the learning process. In recent years, not only have there been fresh attempts to examine the nature of information literacy, but we have also seen recognition of other literacies considered relevant to learning in a modern information age, with concepts such as media literacy, digital literacy and e-literacy.
Ongoing attempts to define the nature of the knowledge and skills needed to learn effectively through information can be interpreted in a number of ways. It may be simply a sign of healthy questioning and debate to ensure that the concept of information literacy stays current and information literacy programmes remain relevant in the light of changing technologies. On the other hand it might be seen as a mark of uncertainty, confusion and possibly lack of confidence in the notion that there is a distinctive information literacy that can somehow be separated from other literacies or from the overall learning and decision-making processes. Do the traditional descriptions of information literacy remain relevant to modern learning environments? What do today's learners think about information literacy? What messages do research findings hold for those trying to provide effective support for learners?
This chapter will examine the nature of information and other literacies in a changing educational environment; the growing critique of traditional conceptions of information literacy; and the implications of
new perspectives for educational practice.
Information and other literacies
The evolution of information literacy from a library skills, user education or bibliographic instruction background has been well documented elsewhere (e.g. Eisenberg et al., 2004; Rader, 1999, 2000). In terms of its relevance to a modern and changing learning environment, it is interesting to reflect on this heritage, which may be seen as both a weakness and a strength. For example, information literacy inherits the criticism of being concerned, at least in part, with bibliographic processes which some might argue are not relevant to modern e-learning environments. However, it also means that information literacy has emerged from a tradition and debate which focuses on the process of finding and using information in any environment, rather than placing emphasis on the use of particular media.
Thus information literacy is usually defined in relation to the active process of finding and using information in relation to need or purpose: 'To be information literate, a person needs to be able to recognize when information is needed and have the ability to locate, evaluate and use effectively the needed information' (American Library Association, 1989). Doyle (1994) takes this definition further, expressing information literacy as a set of more specific attributes; an information-literate person:
• recognizes the need for information
• recognizes that accurate and complete information is the basis for intelligent decision making
• identifies potential sources of information
• develops successful search strategies
• accesses sources of information, including computer-based and other
• evaluates information
• organizes information for practical application
• integrates new information into an existing body of knowledge
• uses information in critical thinking and problem-solving.
Models and standards developed over the years — such as the Big6 Skills Information problem-solving model (Eisenberg and Berkowitz, 2001), Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL) Standards for Higher Education (ACRL, 2000), and the Australian and New Zealand Information Literacy Framework (Bundy, 2004) — all clearly signal that information literacy transcends any particular medium or format, and is equally applicable to print, electronic and people-based information sources. Information literacy programmes should, in theory, reflect the more transferable elements of information process and information content rather than the technology itself. Thus, modern descriptions of information literacy appear to be as relevant to learning in 21st-century networked online learning environments as to traditional print-based environments. Indeed, Shapiro and Hughes (1996) go further in arguing that information literacy is of such fundamental importance in a modern society that it should be conceived of more broadly, as
a new liberal art that extends from knowing how to use computers and access information to critical reflection on the nature of information itself, its technical infrastructure, and its social, cultural and even philosophical context and impact — as essential to the mental framework of the educated information-age citizen as the trivium of basic liberal arts (grammar, logic and rhetoric) was to the educated person in medieval society.
(Shapiro and Hughes, 1996)
There have been many attempts to define and characterize information literacy over the years. Nevertheless, it should be of some reassurance to practitioners that there has been a remarkable consistency between the various frameworks that have emerged across different sectors. The elements of identifying and defining need, locating and selecting sources, selecting and extracting information, organizing and synthesizing information, presenting and communicating information, and evaluating the process and outcome, are reflected to a greater or lesser extent in models reflecting research in schools over the last 25 years — for example Marland's nine questions (1981), Irving's information skills model (1985), Kuhlthau's information seeking (1993), and the American Association of School Librarians' (AASL) information literacy standards for student learning (1998). Eisenberg et al. demonstrate this clearly in their comparative breakdown of the key elements of some of these models (Eisenberg et al., 2004, 40—1). The same information process elements are reflected in higher education (HE) models such as the ACRL's standards for the information-literate student (ACRL, 2000), the recently revised Australian and New Zealand Information Literacy Framework (Bundy, 2004), and the Seven Pillars Model (Society of College, National and University Libraries, 1999) which identifies the skills areas as: :, ,
• the ability to recognize a need for information
• the ability to distinguish ways in which the information 'gap' may be addressed
• the ability to construct strategies for locating information
• the ability to locate and access information
• the ability to compare and evaluate information obtained from different sources
• the ability to organize, apply and communicate information to others in ways appropriate to the situation
• the ability to synthesize and build upon existing information, contributing to the creation of new knowledge.
While maintaining this element of consistency, the concept of information literacy has evolved to take account of the emerging social challenges and opportunities of ICT and, in particular, the internet. Thus the need for ethical and responsible use of information is enshrined in more recent definitions of information literacy such as that ofWebber and Johnston (2004): 'the adoption of appropriate information behaviour to obtain, through whatever channel or medium, information well fitted to information needs, together with critical awareness of the importance of
•wise and ethical use of information in society'. One of the six standards in the new Australian and New Zealand information literacy framework


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Seven Steps to Appeal a Denied Medical Claim
Find out what to do if your insurance carrier denies a claim for arthritis-related care or other health services.
If you've received a letter from your insurance company denying coverage for an arthritis-related medical test, procedure or treatment, don't take out your checkbook just yet – take action. Here are seven steps to help reverse the decision, and preserve your financial health.
1. Review Your Insurance Policy
Read through your policy again, to see if it covers the denied treatment.
2. Call the Insurance Company
Have detailed information about the claim with you when you call, including notes from conversations with your doctor, and a copy of the Explanation of Benefit (EOB) – the form the insurance company sent denying the claim. Be ready to tell the insurance company the date(s) of service, the diagnosis and other key facts about your case. Ask why you were denied coverage, and how you can appeal the decision.
3. File an Internal Appeal
Ask your insurance company to review its decision. You must do this within 6 months after learning your claim was denied. To file an internal appeal:
- Review the appeals process, which should be outlined in the rejection letter from your insurance company.
- Fill out the appeal form(s) your insurance company provides.
- Ask your doctor to write a letter or provide other background material to help your case.
- Call in the Consumer Assistance Program in your state to file an appeal for you, or contact your state's insurance commissioner's office for more assistance in appealing the denial.
Once the internal appeal review is finished, you should get a written decision in 30 to 60 days. If the claim involves a serious health issue, ask the insurance company to speed up the process.
4. Check with Your Doctor
Ask your doctor if you need to make payments on the disputed bill before the appeal process is completed, and get the response in writing. Legally, your doctor can turn your account over to a collection agency, even if your bill is in dispute.
5. Get an External Review
If your appeal is rejected, you can ask for an external review of your claim. That means an independent person outside of your insurance company will do the review. To request an external review:
- Submit a written request for external review within 60 days of the date you received the insurance company's decision.
- Or, ask a doctor or other medical professional to request the review for you by filling out an Appointment of Representative form.
If the external review rules in your favor, the insurance company will have to pay the claim. However, the reviewer may stick with the insurance company's original decision.
6. Contact the Drug Company
If you've been denied coverage for a medication, contact the drug's manufacturer. Many pharmaceutical companies offer resources to help people whose insurers deny coverage for their medicine. (See the pharmaceutical company resource list for this information.)
7. Don't Take "NO" for an Answer
When pursuing appeals for denied services or drugs, be persistent. You and your doctor may be able to reverse the decision based on your medical need for that service or drug.
Learn More
Get general information about filing appeals.
Find your state's Consumer Assistance Program.
Start the external review process.
To get help filing an internal appeal or external review, visit your state's Department of Insurance.
The Arthritis Foundation is the leading organization
providing support and funding research to improve the
lives of individuals with arthritis. You can help!

subset: commoncrawl


text:
There has been an established practice on the main site in Parkstone for more than 90 years. In 2010 the practice was refurbished and extended to include the first floor. New consulting rooms were added allowing the practice to become a training practice for junior doctors.
Creekmoor Surgery opened in 1994 and was extended in 1999 in response to increasing demand. In 2013 it was refurbished in order to provide a modern clinical environment and to optimise space.
We are confident that our website will provide clear and concise help and give our patients the information they require in an easy and convenient format. It has been designed with the patient's needs at the forefront of everything, from checking surgery times to letting us know what you think of us.
There is a no smoking policy throughout both premises. Whilst visiting Evergreen Oak or Creekmoor Surgery, please keep mobile phone conversations discreet and turn off your device during your clinical consultation.
Our dedicated team are here to treat those minor ailments that occur as well as providing specialist management of long-term conditions and clinics covering a wide range of healthcare issues. The technology also means you can now do a lot of things from the comfort of your home such as order a repeat prescription, book or cancel an appointment.
Once registered, patients and healthcare professionals work together to ensure the most appropriate care is provided. This partnership philosophy extends even further and our active patient participation group exists to make sure that patient's needs and the practice offering, are always heading in the same direction.
Both premises have disabled access and facilities however, please let us know if there is anything else we can do to help you. Both premises have car parks, but please ensure that you lock your car and keep valuables out of sight.
Our practice is a training/teaching practice. Our trainees are fully qualified with at least 3 years of hospital experience and have chosen General Practice as a career. They are usually attached to the surgery between 4 and 12 months. They provide care of the same standard as that given by the other Doctors in the practice and will refer to the Partner, who is their trainer, if necessary.
Copyright 2006 - 2020 My Surgery Website | Privacy & Usage | Edit | Staff Home | Site Map | Accessibility | Site T&C's | Service T&C's


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Fixed telephony
A fixed telephone is part of the standard equipment of your university workplace. A fixed telephone allows you to make phone calls to internal lines, mobile numbers and fixed numbers within the Netherlands. But it also offers other options. If you have any questions or if you wish to extend your telephone options, please contact your telephony coordinator.
Telephone number
The university number sequence is 071-527 followed by your personal DID number consisting of 4 digits. Telephones at The Hague locations also have in addition to the Leiden 071-number a The Hague 070- number, which is not related to the internal DID number. All telephones are equipped with numerical display. You can apply to have numerical display switched off via your telephony coordinator.
Internal and external calls
When calling someone within the university, you only need to dial the 4 digits of their DID number. When calling the LUMC, you should first dial 956, followed by the person's 4-digit DID number. To make an external call, first dial 0 and then the complete telephone number. You can also place internal calls from University Leiden to locations in The Hague.
Your fixed telephone allows you to place internal, regional, national and mobile calls. If you also wish to place international calls, you have to apply for it. Your application will be assessed by your telephony coordinator.
Log in to your telephone
To use your telephone you must be logged in. This requires a PIN. If you are not logged in and your do not remember your PIN, please contact your telephony coordinator or service desk.
Telephone group
If you want to use your telephone to receive calls for colleagues from your own department, you can apply for a Call Pick Up group. A Call Pick Up group is a group of telephone numbers such that every member of the group can receive calls intended for his or her colleague on his/her own telephone.
If you and your colleagues all want to be reached at the same telephone number, you can apply for a Hunt group. Both types of applications have to be assessed by your telephony coordinator.


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I feel very comfortable with Imperative programming. I never have trouble expressing algorithmically what I want the computer to do once I figured out what is it that I want it to do. But when it comes to languages like SQL or I often get stuck because my head is too used to Imperative programming.
For example, suppose you have the relations band(bandName, bandCountry), venue(venueName, venueCountry), plays(bandName, venueName), and I want to write a query that says: all venueNames such that for every bandCountry there's a band from that country that plays in venue of that name.
Example: I want all the venueNames in which bands from all countries (bandCountry) played. Also, by "relation" I mean an SQL table.
In my mind I immediately go "for each venueName iterate over all the bandCountries and for each bandCountry get the list of bands that come from it. If none of them play in venueName, go to next venueName. Else, at the end of the bandCountries iteration add venueName to the set of good venueNames".
...but you can't talk like that in SQL and I actually need to think about how to formulate this, with the intuitive Imperative solution constantly nagging in the back of my head. Did anybody else had this problem? How did you overcome this? Did you figured out a paradigm shift? Made a map from Imperative concepts to SQL concepts to translate Imperative solutions into Declarative ones? Read a good book?
PS I'm not looking for a solution to the above query, I did solve it.


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College-bound Holland-area students and their families completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid or FAFSA can receive help with the form during "College Goal Sunday" on Sunday, Feb. 13, from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. at DavenportUniversity, 643 Waverly Rd.
Hosted by Davenport in cooperation with Hope College, the session is one of more than two-dozen "College Goal Sunday" events taking place across the state. The session is free.
The "College Goal Sunday" program is intended for any student who will be attending a college or university in the fall of 2011 and is seeking need-based financial aid. The FAFSA is required of any student seeking need-based financial aid including grants, loans and many scholarships.
Students and families are encouraged to visit the host site nearest them regardless of the college or university that they plan to attend, and can stop in throughout the duration of the event. They will have the opportunity to complete the form with assistance from financial aid experts who will be available to guide them through each step of completing and filing the FAFSA. Students under 23 years of age are encouraged to attend with a parent or guardian. Parents and students should bring their completed 2010 Federal tax return (1040) if possible, or their W-2 and 1099 forms.
"College Goal Sunday" is a collaborative effort of the Michigan Department of Education, the Michigan Student Financial Aid Association, and EduGuide. The program was created to increase the number of students who continue education beyond high school and earn post-secondary degrees. Last year, more than 1,900 students received assistance at "College Goal Sunday" events.
Dozens of sites across Michigan will be hosting "College Goal Sunday" on February 13, with another two events taking place in Saginaw and Detroit on Saturday, Feb. 12. A variety of prizes will be awarded during "College Goal Sunday" events, including a $1,000 scholarship, three $500 scholarships, an iPod Nano, and a Dell laptop computer. A complete list of locations and additional information, visit www.micollegegoal.org.


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Newz by The Nunz
Sweet Sunday Fun Day!
I am happy to report that I survived my time in Old Orchard Beach last evening. OOB can be a wild and tricky place if you don't properly prepare yourself. I grew up near the area so I am certainly accustomed and familiar to the sights, sounds, and all around wonder that is associated with it, but things become even more intense when you pair them with a holiday such as Halloween. Anyway, I hope you all had a smashing Saturday evening and are ready to full throttle into yet another week by getting down this Sunday night. Read on


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With the festive break over and the cold chill of winter here to stay, the thoughts of many will turn to holidays in warmer climes.
Tomorrow (Saturday) is forecast to be one of the most popular days in the calendar for British nationals to book their holiday breaks this year.
For a 24 hour period on 'Sunshine Saturday', tour operators will be offering a host of tempting deals and discounts, and millions of people are expected to take advantage and look to grab a bargain getaway.
In anticipation, the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) is teaming up with weather broadcaster Becky Mantin to offer advice on how best to plan a sunshine break abroad, reminding travellers to take out adequate travel insurance and prepare fully to ensure a trouble-free holiday in 2016.
A new animation video highlights some of the risks of travelling abroad without adequate insurance cover.
According to the Association of British Insurers, the average cost of a claim for medical expenses is £1,022, which is significantly higher than the £32 average for an annual travel insurance policy.
The FCO and Becky are advising British nationals to research the right insurance options, understand the potential costs of not being adequately insured and to give detailed and accurate medical histories to insurers. In addition, travellers to Europe should also ensure they apply for their free European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) at www.ehic.org.
Becky Mantin, weather broadcaster, said: "I'm predicting that this 'Sunshine Saturday' will be an excellent opportunity for people to explore some fantastic travel deals, and maybe even book a well deserved bargain getaway abroad.
"But after you've found your perfect deal and clicked that 'book' button, ensure you also start to think about making the right pre-travel preparations. Getting adequate travel insurance is particularly important – without it you risk putting a real dampener on your holiday, as well as being out of pocket!"
Cara Fortune, from the FCO's Know Before You Go team, said: "It is great that many British nationals will be looking to bag a holiday bargain this Sunshine Saturday, but it's important not to scrimp on insurance cover. A medical emergency abroad can be extremely expensive if you are not adequately insured.
"Come rain or shine, taking out appropriate travel insurance should be at the top of your to-do list before heading overseas. If not, it may not be the holiday you bargained for!"


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Islamic Rulings -
Living Shariah Verdicts
Islamic Questions & Answers
I have been a Muslimah for the past 6 years,
alhamdulillah. I came to Islam after almost 20 years
of marriage. My son who is 11 years old is also a
Muslim. I am bringing him up under the teachings of
Islam. However, his father is not a Muslim and I know
that according to Shariah Law my marriege was broken
from the moment that I took my shahadah. HIs father
does not practice any religion and he does not want to
learn about Islam. We still live in the same house but
we stopped sharing the same bed for a long time.We
dont have intimacy at all. My son's father is also a
disable due a car accident years back. We share the
same house but I deal with him more as a caregiver. I
think many times about living this house so I could
have more freedom to practice my religion,including
wearing the hijab when I go out with him, but I don't
have the courage to leave him because of his condition
and I also can't support myself. My parents are poor
and I don't have much education and I also worry about
my son. Please send me an advice concerning this
situation and tell me if is a major sin for me not to
go out with a hijab with my husband when he forced me
not to do it. I wear the full hijab all the time when
I am alone, but once I stepped out of the house with
him, he tells me to removed it.
Praise be to Allaah.
We praise Allah for having blessed you with Islam, and
we ask Him to make us and you steadfast in adhering to
His true religion.
If a woman becomes Muslim and her husband refuses to
become Muslim, she is not permissible for him because
Allah says (interpretation of the meaning):
"then if you ascertain that they are true believers
send them not back to the disbelievers. They are not
lawful (wives) for the disbelievers nor are the
disbelievers lawful (husbands) for them"
[al-Mumtahanah 60:10].
Al-Shawkaani (may Allah have mercy on him) said:
The words of Allah, "They are not lawful (wives) for
the disbelievers nor are the disbelievers lawful
(husbands) for them" explain the reason why it is
forbidden to send them back. This indicates that a
believing woman is not permissible for a kaafir and
that if the woman becomes Muslim she must leave her
husband. End quote.
Fath al-Qadeer, 5/301
So it is not permissible for a Muslim woman to remain
married to a kaafir under any circumstances
whatsoever. Rather they should be separated as soon as
she becomes Muslim, then she should wait until her
'iddah ends. If he becomes Muslim during the 'iddah,
that they remain married, but if the 'iddah ends and
he has not become Muslim, she becomes irrevocably
divorced from him and she may marry someone else if
she wishes, or she may wait until he becomes Muslim.
Ibn al-Qayyim (may Allah have mercy on him) said: What
is indicated by the ruling of the Prophet (blessings
and peace of Allah be upon him) is that the marriage
is suspended. If he becomes Muslim before the end of
her 'iddah, then she is still his wife, but if her
'iddah ends, then she may marry whomever she wants, or
if she likes she may wait for him, then if he becomes
Muslim, she is still his wife without any need for a
new marriage contract. End quote.
Zaad al-Ma'aad, 5/137
As you say that you became Muslim six years ago, you
became irrevocably divorced from him a long time ago.
So you have to leave him immediately and it is not
permissible for you to stay with him under any
circumstances. And you have to seek forgiveness and
repent to Allah, may He be exalted.
It is not permissible for you to serve him and take
care of him when Islam has separated you, especially
since he -- in addition to being a disbeliever --
hates religion and despises hijab and tells you to
take it off. How can you feel that you and your
religious commitment are safe when you are with him?
The Standing Committee for Issuing Fatwas was asked
about a Christian woman who was elderly, as was her
husband. She became Muslim but he did not, and there
was no sexual relationship between them. Is it
permissible for her to stay with him or should the
marriage be annulled?
They replied:
If a Christian woman becomes Muslim and she is the
wife of a Christian man, the marriage contract is
annulled. Based on that, it is not permissible for her
to stay with him even if they are old and have no
sexual relationship. End quote.
Fataawa al-Lajnah al-Daa'imah, 19/16-17
The fact that you are poor and have no work does not
make it permissible to you to stay in the same house
as a non-Muslim man. Think positively of Allah, may He
be exalted, for He is the One Who says (interpretation
of the meaning):
"Allaah will grant after hardship, ease"
[al-Talaaq 65:7].
Al-Sa'di (may Allah have mercy on him) said:
This is glad tidings to those who are in difficulty,
that Allah will grant them relief from their hardship
and take away their difficulties. End quote.
Tafseer al-Sa'di, p. 871
And Allah says (interpretation of the meaning):
"And whosoever fears Allaah and keeps his duty to Him,
He will make a way for him to get out (from every
3. And He will provide him from (sources) he never
could imagine. And whosoever puts his trust in Allaah,
then He will suffice him. Verily, Allaah will
accomplish his purpose. Indeed Allaah has set a
measure for all things"
[al-Talaaq 65:2-3].
Imam Ibn al-Qayyim (may Allah have mercy on him)
debated with a Christian scholar until the truth
became clear to him, but he refrained from entering
Islam on the grounds that the Christians venerated him
and he said: I do not know any trade and I have not
memorized any Qur'aan or grammar or fiqh. If I become
Muslim I will go around the marketplaces begging from
people. Who could agree to that? Ibn al-Qayyim said:
That will not happen! How can you think of Allah that
if you give precedence to pleasing Him over your whims
and desires He would humiliate you and make you in
need of others? Even if we assume that that will
befall you, what you have attained of truth and
salvation from the Fire and from the wrath and anger
of Allah will be the most complete compensation for
what you have lost. End quote.
Hidaayat al-Hayaara, p. 119
Your son should treat his father kindly and serve him
and help him as much as he can. That is his father's
right over him, even if he (the father) continues to
follow his present religion. Strive to call him to
Islam, for that will be better for both of you, so
that the family will not be divided. Tell him that
Islam forbids you to stay with him, and that there is
no solution to this problem except his becoming
We ask Allah to guide and help you all.
And Allah knows best.
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A handsome addition to any bedroom, this spacious drawer dresser combines functional storage with traditional lines and details. Hidden storage adds playful intrigue to the furniture, which children and adults alike are sure to love. This timeless dresser offers plenty of space for your child's belongings. With seven spacious drawers, there's room for clothing, accessories or toys. Crafted using hardwood solids and veneers, it features brushed nickel hardware and a lightly distressed rustic cherry finish.
Would you like us to help you find a similar item? Talk with our Design Consultants toll-free at1-800-927-5164.
*Shipping transit time varies based on destination. Free shipping offers are limited to the 48 contiguous states of the USA.
International Customers (including Alaska and Hawaii) please contact a Customer Service Representative if you have any questions about placing an order with PoshTots.
Some assembly required. Assembly service available upon request.
This item is custom made especially for you upon order.Click here for our policy on custom made items.
Promotion codes cannot be used for sale item purchases.
*Free shipping offers are limited to the 48 contiguous states of the USA.


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Police have identified a suspect in connection with a series of random killings Sunday morning in the San Fernando Valley.
Alex Hernandez, 34, was arrested on an unrelated animal cruelty charge after an hours-long standoff with SWAT. He was accused of shooting and killing two dogs on a street a day earlier. Authorities took Hernandez into custody after a brief struggle at a home on Polk Street near Gladstone Avenue in Sylmar Sunday night.
He was being held on $1 million bail.
Local news from across Southern California
"The victims suffered from gunshot wounds from a shotgun and so they were linking both of them when they were writing a warrant for this individual," said Officer Liliana Preciado of the LAPD.
Investigators consider Hernandez, a documented gang member, a suspect in three separate shootings, which left three people dead and four others wounded Sunday. Police connected the suspect to the cases after responding to the standoff and found a vehicle matching the description of the suspect's vehicle in the weekend shootings.
"The public can rest at ease at this point, there was no other suspect in this crime spree," Preciado said. "We don't see any connections with any satanic rituals or any type of religious involvement at this point. Unfortunately it was just three random killings."
Police were also looking into the possibility that Hernandez was involved in a car-to-car shooting in Atwater Village Wednesday that left a woman hospitalized and the fatal shooting of a man who was driving to work in Pacoima on Thursday.
The three people killed on Sunday were all found within a five mile radius, police said.
A man and two women were killed and four other people were wounded in shootings that happened in a span of 55 minutes and within a 5-mile radius in the San Fernando Valley early Sunday.
The first shooting happened at 5:50 a.m. when a 20-year-old woman was fatally shot in the 1400 block of Celis Street in San Fernando, Los Angeles Police Department Sgt. Frank Preciado said.
The woman was with her parents and twin siblings on their way to early morning mass when someone came up and shot at them.
All five members of the family were struck by gunfire. Police said the twins were injured and the mother and father were in critical condition following the shooting.
The second shooting happened at 6:35 a.m. in the 13000 block of Borden Avenue in Sylmar. A man between 25 and 35 years old was shot dead while walking near the Sylmar Recreational Center.
Ten minutes later, a third shooting was reported in the 1200 block of Filmore Street in Pacoima. A Hispanic woman in her late 50s was shot in the head, police said.


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The Week in Wine
Published: Last Updated:
- "The Virtue of Old Age": In this post, the Riesling enthusiasts over at Derkellermeister stage a tasting of the same wine of a recent vintage and one that is much, much older. The kick? All of the wines are white and some are aged over 40 years. Especially interesting is the section entitled, "Why are some wines age-worthy and others are not?"
- The beauty of reading it from the beginning: Aaron Epstein, a quad-lingual, mid-twenties, and handsome wine expert, has left his job "toting the bag" (industry speak for working for a wholesaler and carrying a case of wines from client to client for tastings) so that he can "work" the grape harvest in Provence then try to assimilate to life in Argentina's wine industry. In this new blog, he sometimes rambles off on wine jargon but then brings readers back to reality with great advice like, "Those of you not in the wine business may be asking yourself why any of this matters. The short answer is it doesn't, really if you like a wine, drink it."
- There's so much to love about good wine. Not least of it all is the vineyards. This dramatic photo gives you the perspective of one single vineyard row. Images like this are enough to make a city mouse move to the country.
- And a nod to Eric Asimov, who continues to shine more brightly in his blog than his column in the New York Times. This week Asimov writes of a rare bottle of 1985 Barolo that he comes across on a rainy day. Even more alluring than his descriptions of the wine is the way he is able to convey the sense that the enjoyment of a wine is highlighted by so many factors, the people you are drinking it with, the environment, even the weather. The aged Barolo was great on that rainy day for him and with our last bought of heat, I drank a Gloria Ferrer Blanc de Blancs 2003 that was so refreshing that it seemed not only to quench my thirst but refresh the entire day.
All products linked here have been independently selected by our editors. We may earn a commission on purchases, as described in our affiliate policy.


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Update: We have finished judging on this caption contest and have announced the winner. Thanks to all who participated.
Frigid temperatures, Walk2gether in the Andes, beautiful landscapes and ambling donkeys Ö they can only mean one thing.
A CFCA caption contest!
How would you describe the action going on in this picture? Share with us your clever caption by adding a comment below.
(Here's a refresher on our guidelines ñ we don't accept offensive or inappropriate comments, profane or abusive language.)
A team of qualified panelists (a.k.a. CFCA employees) will pick the winning caption in early†February. The winner will receive a prize of a Walk2gether bracelet as well as recognition from the general CFCA community.
Enjoy, and feel free to pass this on to your friends!


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Kevin Durant leads Thunder past Grizzlies 100-86
OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Kevin Durant put a dazzling end to Memphis' gritty comeback.
The Grizzlies erased most of a 25-point deficit before Durant, the league's scoring champion, got hot. He scored 13 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter to help the Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Memphis 100-86 on Saturday night in the opening game of their first-round playoff series.
The Thunder already were regaining control in the fourth quarter before Durant took over. He scored 11 points in a 5-minute, 21-second surge that stretched Oklahoma City's lead from seven points to 14 and put the game out of reach.
BOX SCORE:Thunder 100, Grizzlies 86
PLAYOFFS:TV info, schedule, results
"We just stayed together," Durant said. "We made plays in the fourth quarter. The third quarter was tough for us, but we stayed together. We didn't stray away."
Russell Westbrook had 23 points and 10 rebounds and Serge Ibaka added 17 points and nine rebounds for the Thunder.
Zach Randolph led Memphis with 21 points and 11 rebounds, but he made just seven of 21 shots and got into foul trouble in the second half. Mike Conley had 16 points and 11 assists, Marc Gasol scored 16 points and Tony Allen added 13 points for the Grizzlies. Memphis might have stolen the game if not for a miserable first half.
"We've got to make adjustments to get off to a better start," Randolph said. "We can't exert so much energy trying to come back from 20 points. It's the first game, we've got to stick together. We've been here before, we know what we've got to do and come out and be ready for Monday."
Memphis shot just 36 percent from the field and made just 18 of 31 free throws.
"We got good looks. I can't say it was anything other than that," Conley said. "We got good looks. We got some open 3s. Our bigs got some good looks in the post. We just didn't knock them down. We have to be more focused at the line as well. Making free throws is a big deal for us. We got opportunities. We've got to make them."
Oklahoma City was the only home team to win on the first day of the postseason, but the Thunder nearly made it four losses for higher seeds after getting outscored 31-13 in the third quarter.
"We didn't want to be the leading trend on losing a home game," Westbrook said. "We're just happy we won a game. We did a great job of just coming out and hitting them first. They're a physical team and we did a great job of going by our game plan."
The Thunder pushed the pace to take an 8-0 lead, and Memphis called a timeout less than three minutes into the game. Conley finally scored Memphis' first point at the 9:04 mark after the Grizzlies missed their first five shots.
The Thunder led 29-16 at the end of the first period. Oklahoma City shot 52 percent in the first 12 minutes while holding the Grizzlies to 17 percent shooting.
Oklahoma City continued the onslaught into the second quarter and took a 56-34 advantage into the locker room.
Memphis scored the first six points of the second half, and though Oklahoma City quickly called a timeout, the Grizzlies continued their surge. A three-point play by Allen trimmed the Thunder's lead to 60-51, and by the end of the third quarter, Memphis had cut its deficit to 69-65. Allen scored nine points in the third quarter, and Randolph scored eight. Memphis held Oklahoma City to 3-for-16 shooting in the period.
"I just think as a point guard, my job is to set the tone, and I didn't do a great job of that in the third quarter, of coming out and setting the tone," Westbrook said. "I had a few bad turnovers and kind of let them get easy baskets. I've got to do a better job of that."
The Grizzlies had whittled Oklahoma City's lead down to three early in the fourth before a powerful drive and jam by Caron Butler brought life back to the nervous arena and gave the Thunder a 74-69 lead with just under nine minutes to play. Memphis' Mike Miller came back with a 3-pointer to make it a two-point game, but the Thunder responded with a 13-1 run.
Though Oklahoma City held on, Memphis will take confidence from its rally into Game 2.
"We see what we did," Randolph said. "I think we cut it down to two, and they made another run, but we see what we can do. We know what we can do and we've got to come like that at the beginning of the game."
NOTES: Saturday was the 19-year anniversary of the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City. The crowd observed a moment of silence before tip-off. ... Memphis reserve point guard Nick Calathes has been suspended for 20 games for violating the NBA's anti-drug policy, starting Saturday. The league said Friday night in a release that Calathes tested positive for tamoxifen. "It is what it is," Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger said before the game. "We've dealt with adversity all season." ... Thunder rookie Steven Adams blocked three shots in the first quarter in just 1:26. The Thunder blocked five shots in the period.


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Agreeing and Disagreeing with Bill James
I have long admired Bill James and I enjoy reading his work. I remember when Doug Drinen let me borrow his collection of Abstracts, and the jealousy I felt about growing up without ever knowing of James's work. In my mind, Bill James thinks like an economist, and I didn't realize my way of thinking naturally was commonplace in economics until I got to college. Had I found Bill James as a teenager, my life probably would have been a little bit different.
I happened across a post by King Kaufman the other day, which led me to A Bill James Primer, extracted from James's 1988 Abstract. But, as I read the primer, I was surprised to see how often I disagree with many of the tenets. Though I've been writing about these issues for years, I just hadn't noticed. So, I thought I'd wander through the primer in a blog post. I'll point out where I agree, disagree, and have qualified agreement and why.
1. Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
I think that minor-league statistics can predict performance; though, I wouldn't go so far as to say that they predict with the same reliability as major-league statistics. In Chapter 8 of Hot Stove Economics, I examine how minor-league baseball statistics can be used to predict major-league performance. I find that certain minor-league statistics at the High-A level and above are correlated with major-league performance. However, performances at Low-A and below do not have much ability to predict major-league performance. As a general rule, the closer you get to the big leagues, the more reliable predictor minor-league statistics become. The problem is that because the quality of minor-league players is so widely dispersed, good minor-league performances can be aided by taking advantage of qualities of the competition that won't survive in the majors. However, it's rare for someone who performs poorly in the minors and to excel in the majors.
2. Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
I disagree. Below are two graphs that showing the distribution of hitters and pitchers in baseball, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances or batters faced in 2009. The solid line is league average and the dashed lines bound the standard deviation.
For this reason, I don't believe replacement players are cheap and abundant, and it's one of the reasons I dislike replacement-level metrics.
3. What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
I agree that ballpark effects are real. You can't judge players without adjusting for park effects. This seems obvious now, but I don't believe it always was. I think that James was one of the first people to study and measure park effects.
4. Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.
Depends on which "people" you are. I think James's claim that player peak at age 27 is wrong. I believe the methodology of his initial study of the issue is flawed. My own estimates indicate that players peak around 29. Though I disagree with his initial findings, the chapter on aging in his 1982 Abstract was groundbreaking in how he thought about aging functions.
5. Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.
It depends on what you mean by dramatic, and how this ought to inform draft strategy. Jim Callis of Baseball America conducted an analysis of how well high school and college players succeeded in the majors. College players did a little bit better—I wouldn't call the difference "dramatic"—but that's not surprising and I don't think the identified difference should affect teams' drafting strategy.
College prospects are a survivors of a previous high school draft pool. After three or four years of observation, we have a better idea of whom the good players are. It should be no more surprising that college players succeed at a slightly higher rate than high school players than that minor-league players three years from high school are more successful than recently-drafted players. We have better information about them, and time has culled out some non-prospects. But, if a team tried to improve its return to the draft by drafting more college players, it's not necessarily going to benefit from the previously measured higher success rate of college players. The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players, we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone.
Let's say you had to buy a car today. You have time to test-drive three, and you like one and hate the other two. But by the time you go to buy the good car you test-drove it's gone. Should you buy one of the cars you know you don't like or go for one you have a chance of liking from a pool of cars you didn't test drive that were on your list of prospective cars from Consumer Reports? The latter group of cars has more risk, but at least has an upside that the former group doesn't have.
So, agree with James here on the fact, but I don't think the higher success rate of college draftees means that teams can improve their drafts by focusing on more college players. However, I'm not sure if James believes anything more than the fact.
6. The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent.
I'd probably agree with this, but I think the fact that the pick will likely yield a player who can be paid far less than he's worth is more important than the likelihood that the drafted player is good. On talent alone, I expect a mediocre free agent has an expected talent value of close to that of a high draft pick.
7. A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
I don't know.
8. Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.
9. The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
Getting the first man on in the inning is important, but I'm not sure that it's the largest variable. I'll concede that I don't know.
10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
I find baseball is 13% defense, and so does James. Agreement.
11. True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum.
Possibly, but the problem is that for most of the game, players have to play both sides of the ball. And because fielding is such a relatively small part of baseball, purely defensive guys don't have a lot of value. There is a shortage of guys who are decent hitters and play defense well, especially at defensive positions.
12. Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work.
13. Our idea of what makes a team good on artificial turf is not supported by any research.
I have no clue, so he's probably right.
14. When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next.
Agree, that's simple mean reversion.
15. The platoon differential is real and virtually universal.
Even as I find differences here, my affection and respect for James as a thinker has never diminished. I agree with Tyler Cowen that James is one of the greatest living social scientists. What I like about James is the way he approaches problems and finds answers. I may not agree with the exact method used or the answer—although; in most cases I do—but I like the frame of mind with which James tackles curiosities. The sabermetric approach that James espouses is right. That his findings sometimes don't fit with mine, doesn't bother me.
33 Responses "Agreeing and Disagreeing with Bill James"
And what about the research of the past twenty two years? Do you agree or disagree with that?
#13 — artificial turf was much more of an issue in 1988 when James wrote this as it is now. We've gone from an era of a large number of multi-purpose facilities that had artificial turf to allow them to quickly turn into a football stadium, to two (both in the AL East — Tropicana in St. Pete and Rogers in Toronto).
I'm interested in hearing some further thoughts on #2. This is in my opinion an underexplored topic. On the one hand, some other research I've read recently (can't find the link – it was data showing a high number of IP/PA by sub-replacement level players each year) and my own subjective impressions agree with your skepticism. On the other hand, if you think about the logic of James' argument, he SHOULD be right. (i.e., major league players represent the extreme right tail of the normal distribution of baseball skills of all adults.) Why does the reality diverge from what we should expect?
Kind of funny that JC is completely unaware that by adding the 100 min PA requirement to his baseball player sample, he's looking a very different population distribution.
JC, that graph in #2 is flawed.
First of all, it doesn't address the claim made by James. He said, "Talent in baseball is not normally distributed." Which is more than just the majors. James' statement is quite obviously true or there wouldn't be 750 players in the Majors and thousands in the Minors.
Second, there is all kinds of selection bias in your graph. 1) It's only players who make the majors. 2) It's only players who get 100 PA in the majors. 3) It's only one season worth of data.
Your graph doesn't say anything about the true distribution of baseball talent, only about the talent selected by baseball teams to play and stay in the majors. Basically it says that baseball is efficient at selecting talent because the hordes of players with less than major league talent either don't make it at all or don't get much playing time if they do.
Basically, if you include the major league ability of all professional baseball players, there are thousands more on the left side of your graphs and zero more on the right side.
I enjoyed this article, but with regards to your graph for tenet #2, I don't think Bill was talking about "talent in the MLB with 100 AB." He's talking about in the world. So though Replacement and Sub-replacement level talent is unlikely to get 100+ PA in the MLB it would be interesting to study the talent of players in the MiLB (with a corresponding adjustment of their MiLB stats vis a vis MLB correlation) and see how the plot looks then. Also: college baseball, independent leagues, international leagues. I don't know for sure, but I strongly suspect that Bill is right about this, if we assume he's talking about talent in the general populace and no just at the highest level.
Every Triple-A player who isn't a prospect working his way up is a potential replacement-level major leaguer, and in fact, a lot of them have spent time in the majors in just that role. When you consider that, it's clear that replacement-level players are extremely abundant.
As far as the minor league statistics go, you are aware that Bill James was only speaking about numbers from AA and AAA baseball, aren't you? He never used numbers from any version of A ball, let alone low-A, in developing his system of translating minor league statistics.
I ran the numbers using Fangraphs WAR from 2010. About 28% of pitchers and 37% of hitters were below replacement level. Which is about 33% of all players. However, this includes pitcher hitting, which is almost universally below replacement because Fangraphs does not use a positional adjustment for.
Also the 28% of pitchers made up 13% of innings pitched and the 37% of hitters made up only 16% of plate appearances.
But when considering these numbers you have to take several things into account.
1) If you take out pitcher hitting, about 28% of pitchers and hitters were below replacement level. And they made up 13% of innings pitched and 14% of plate appearances.
2) Most of these below replacement performances are based on very small sample sizes. The pitchers below replacement level averaged 31.2 innings and the hitters averaged 86 PA. So most of those hitters wouldn't even make your talent distribution graph. And probably about half of those pitchers wouldn't show up on your chart.
3) With many players right around replacement level, you would expect a good portion to have observed value below replacement level though their true value may be right around or slightly above replacement level.
4) About 60% of hitters and 75% of pitchers below replacement level were below by only a third of a win. Making it highly likely that many of them are actually above replacement level in talent.
5) If you don't believe replacement level exists then why do you base your argument on the fact that Fangraphs set their replacement level too high? (Rally WAR at Baseball Reference and WARP at Baseball Prospectus both use lower replacement levels).
Pete really starts to move the ball forward on this. I, too, suspect that part of the answer is sample size – i.e., a lot of the players performing below "replacement level" really have replacement level ability, but this fact is masked by luck in small samples. Though I doubt that this explains all of the problem.
It's frustrating that this is such a little discussed issue though – I think J.C. has a real point, but it bugs me that he doesn't go deeper into his analysis (maybe he does in the book, I don't know), and is IMO overly categorical in his conclusions.
A quick correction:
Baseball-Reference WAR actually uses a slightly higher replacement level than Fangraphs (I believe B-R uses a team that would have a .320 winning percentage and Fangraphs is set at .290)
True replacement-level players don't get 100 PA in MLB.
I play baseball, I'm not good enough to play professionally. But I'm in the pyramid of baseball talent. There are fewer people better than me than worse than me, and that is true of anyone who ever learned how to play any sport.
#2 above is trying to answer a different question than what Bill James was discussing.
JC, regardless of where you set the cutoff, you're still going to have a cutoff of at least one major-league PA or one major-league batter faced. We know that there were at least 9,000 players who played at ANY level of professional baseball (looking at affiliated minors and the major leagues – so really there's more if you include professional leagues in Japan and Korea, the independent minors, and high-level college programs).
What would your distribution look like if all of those players were included? Would it still be normal?
Let's just tackle what Bill said:
"For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average."
Players 10% above average and 10% below average by OPS+ for the 2006-2010 seasons, cumulative, min 100 PA. (Pitchers excluded) Data from B-R Play Index
110 or above: 120
91-109: 174
90 or below: 253
About 21 below for every 10 above.
B-R ERA+ isn't linear, so I just used data from Fangraphs for 2006-2010 with a minimum of 100 batters faced. Starters and relievers were calculated separately.
10% Above: 240
Between 10% Above and 10% Below: 343
10% Below: 498
That's nearly 21 below for every 10 above.
So Bill was right. It's a pyramid.
One year of data is not enough because there's much more turnover at the bottom than at the top.
Hey, watch me carefully parse Bill James' words and ignore the actual meaning of his statement in an effort to drum something up! JC – you're going to have to interpret the statement as James meant it to be, not as however you want to twist it into. By setting the bar at 100 PA, we are purposefully excluding the true replacement player, for example the guy who gets called up from AAA when a starter goes on the DL for 15 days. The replacement player pool is not those players who have established themselves as major leaguers. It's the pool of players who could get a shot at the majors. And since JC needs it spelled out, James was not referring to only players who are specifically and exactly 10% better or worse than average, as if players 20% better or worse couldn't possibly fit into a similar pyramid. But apparently it is much more fun to build up a strawman to create some controversy with than take the statement as it was meant to be. Saying the knowledge of the broader interpretation isn't new or useful is like saying James' third statement isn't new or useful either. Just like ballpark effects, distribution of talent wasn't well understood over 20 years ago, and James was one of the first to tackle this.
"We've got to get rid if this guy because he's only average, that's not good enough to win — and it will be *easy* to replace him with someone better because half of all players are above average!"
If I've heard this nonsense a thousand times I've heard it a million. And this is the popular idea James was responding to in 1988 (I have that Abstract too).
But now the dufuses who believe this have your charts to back them up. "See!"
Of course, the average pro ballplayer is down in AA somewhere. That's how the talent is really distributed.
And you believe that too. Otherwise you wouldn't say "I don't believe replacement players are cheap and abundant".
Why aren't they? Because even the marginal MLB/top AAA talent is so far above the average level of all pro players as to be *not* "cheap and abundant".
I am shocked that a supposedly knowledgeable person would try to make the silly arguments that JC is making about a "lack" of replacement level players.
Obviously, you just don't get it at all.
Don't feel bad, though, Bill James writes over a lot of people's heads.
To further the point Pete made earlier about turnover in the player population and what you are missing by looking only at a single year, I looked at the hitter population with at least 100 plate appearances between 1994 and 2009. In that population, 404 hitters had an OPS above average and 1133 hitters had an OPS below average. Moreover, 28 hitters had an OPS more than one standard deviation better than average, and 354 hitters had an OPS more than one standard deviation worse than average.
The distribution is clearly skewed, contrary to what your examination of a single year led you to believe.
JC, you should look at any hitter who had at least 100 plate appearances in total during the whole time period, not just those who had 100 plate appearances in any given single year. You just repeated your same study with the same error on a larger scale and did not consider the point about turnover that Pete and I have raised.
Let's try a different athletic endeavor.
Just for discussion, let's say that roughly the number of people who have ever run a verified sub 10.00 100 meters is 50. Then, the number sub 10.2 is probably 500. The number sub 10.5 is probably 10000. Etc.
I don't understand why that argument is not applicable to baseball.
I think a problem is that players that we want to judge in terms of "replacement level" (#5 starting pitchers and "worst starting position player") are actually usually above replacement level.
For most teams there are about 2 to 3 slots on their roster that call for a replacement player: #4 righthanded reliever, #3 lefthanded reliever, # 5 outfielder, #3 catcher, #2 backup middle infielder. And there are lots and lots of those.
First, I had included pitchers hitting in my original numbers. I should have removed those. I also realized that my data only ran through 2007 instead of 2009. Neither of those change the conclusion substantially.
There were 348 hitters with at least 100 PA above average in OPS, and 958 such hitters below average, from 1994-2007.
I also incorrectly counted the standard deviations. There were 75 hitters more than one standard deviation above average in OPS and 422 hitters more than one standard deviation below average (not including pitchers hitting).
It appears to me that you simply repeated your previous study and expanded the years rather than considering the issue of turnover that Pete and I have raised. You should look at players that had at least 100 plate appearances over the whole time period 1994-2009 and not restrict yourself to players who had at least 100 PA in a given single year.
To give a few specific examples, are you including players like Greg LaRocca, Mike Rouse, Fausto Cruz, Les Norman, and Jim Tatum in your sample? They all had 100 PA or more during the period 1994-2009, but spread across more than one year.
So you don't think that the players who got 100 PA distributed over two or three years are a good representation of replacement level? Why not? They would seem to be a perfect representation. Yet you purposefully exclude them without giving a good reason, other than an ad hominen allegation of silliness.
If it radically changes your distribution, which it does, you might want to consider why.
(My previous post giving details about the 100-PA multiple-season players was cross-posted with your preceding post, in case that isn't clear from the context.)
So if you remove a very large number of players who are below average because they aren't good enough to stick around, then you can get the distribution to approximate a normal distribution? That's a tautology, and surely you can see that.
You state, "the reason I use the 100-PAs cutoff is that I need a sufficient sample size to measure talent level." That's irrelevant to my point, and I don't know why you state it. I also used a 100-PA cutoff.
You state, "I looked at samples below this cutoff and it did not have a big effect on the distribution." That may be true for the single season level, but it is decidedly untrue at the multi-season level. Thus, it is either irrelevant or misleading to restate that point in addressing my question.
You state, "When you look at cumulative PAs over more than a year, you are getting lots of small samples that are not akin to the typical groupings of at-bats that players take regularly. They are also spread over time so it's not clear what level of talent is being represented." They are mostly spread over two consecutive years. I'm doubtful that talent level changes so radically in the span of one year that this data becomes unusable. In fact, your aging curves suggest that talent level changes very slowly. If you accept that finding, these samples should be very useful to you. To discard a large portion of the data set that radically changes your conclusion, you ought to have a better reason than simply thinking the data might have problems.
If you include this data, it demonstrates quite clearly that your conclusion is wrong. If you want to exclude this data, you ought to demonstrate with evidence-based tests why you can throw it out and maintain any sort of integrity in your conclusion.
The question of the distribution of *talent* is, I think, somewhat different from the distribution of *outcomes,* in a situation in which the objective of one participant (say, a hitter) and the objective of another participant (say, the pitcher/defense) are opposed. The question of the distribution of talent can, I think, only be truly answered in one of two circumstances:
1) All hitters hit against only a set of pitchers backed by a defense of given quality. Then, the only variable is the talent of the hitter. (Transpose this for pitcher/defense–hold the hitter talent constant and vary the pitcher/defense.)
2) Participants, while competing with each other do not oppose each others' efforts. Take, for example, the distribution of driving distances on the PGA Tour in 2010. I can't reproduce the graph here, but it is clearly non-normal. And it is positively-skewed.
I suspect, but can't right now, find data for (for example) scores on the Professional Bowlers' Tour, but I suspect they are also non-normal.
But I'm not surprised that the distribution of outcomes in MLB is approximately normal, just as I would not surprise that the distribution of outcomesin the NFL is roughly normal. The interaction of two non-normal distributions can easily be normal.
Looking at only the above-average portion of your updated graph (where there should be little to no selection bias because these are the very best players available) we see that for each lower level of performance there is an increasing number of players. As you get below average the efficiency of the league minimizes below average *performances.*
However, there is still below average *talent* available in increasing numbers. These players just don't receive major league playing time.
Surely you agree that there are more players clustered around "22nd-25th man on the roster" talent than "18th-21nd man on the roster" talent.
Of course, this won't show up when you look at players who receive 100 MLB PA in a season. Because most of these players are in AAA.


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Authorities say no charges will be filed against one of the twin brother stars of HGTV's "Property Brothers" following an incident at a North Dakota bar.
According to a police report, Jonathan Scott repeatedly refused to leave the Fargo bar at closing time early on the morning of April 24. A bar staffer told police that Scott said, "do you know who I am?" when asked to hand over his drink.
Security camera footage shows Scott resisting bar staff while being escorted out. The video shows Scott returning before being physically removed again.
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Scott reported the encounter to police and told them he had been put in a chokehold.
Fargo City Attorney Erik Johnson tells The Associated Press there's not enough evidence to establish a crime.
Scott's publicist hasn't returned a request for comment.


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After the incoming Lego Minecraft, the other big Lego franchise that nerds everywhere are dying to get is Lego Lord of the Rings. This is the first view of its minifigs, captured by Huw Millington at London's Toy Fair.
I can't wait for this one myself. I hope there will be some gigantic 15,000-piece set reproducing Minas Morgul. [Flickr via The Brothers Brick]


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Fear Pays the Bills, but Accounts Must Be Settled
A lot of the debate around President Obama's cybersecurity initiative center on how much of a burden it would be on industry, and how that should be financed. As important as that debate is, it obscures some of the larger issues surrounding cyberwar, cyberterrorism, and cybersecurity in general.
It's difficult to have any serious policy discussion amongst the fear mongering. Secretary Panetta's recent comments are just the latest; search the Internet for "cyber 9/11," "cyber Peal-Harbor," "cyber Katrina," or -- my favorite -- "cyber Armageddon."
There's an enormous amount of money and power that results from pushing cyberwar and cyberterrorism: power within the military, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department; and lucrative government contracts supporting those organizations. As long as cyber remains a prefix that scares, it'll continue to be used as a bugaboo.
But while scare stories are more movie-plot than actual threat, there are real risks. The government is continually poked and probed in cyberspace, from attackers ranging from kids playing politics to sophisticated national intelligence gathering operations. Hackers can do damage, although nothing like the cyberterrorism rhetoric would lead you to believe. Cybercrime continues to rise, and still poses real risks to those of use who work, shop, and play on the Internet. And cyberdefense needs to be part of our military strategy.
Industry has definitely not done enough to protect our nation's critical infrastructure, and federal government may need more involvement. This should come as no surprise; the economic externalities in cybersecurity are so great that even the freest free market would fail.
For example, the owner of a chemical plant will protect that plant from cyber attack up to the value of that plant to the owner; the residual risk to the community around the plant will remain. Politics will color how government involvement looks: market incentives, regulation, or outright government takeover of some aspects of cybersecurity.
None of this requires heavy-handed regulation. Over the past few years we've heard calls for the military to better control Internet protocols; for the United States to be able to "kill" all or part of the Internet, or to cut itself off from the greater Internet; for increased government surveillance; and for limits on anonymity. All of those would be dangerous, and would make us less secure. The world's first military cyberweapon, Stuxnet, was used by the United States and Israel against Iran.
In all of this government posturing about cybersecurity, the biggest risk is a cyber-war arms race; and that's where remarks like Panetta's lead us. Increased government spending on cyberweapons and cyberdefense, and an increased militarization of cyberspace, is both expensive and destabilizing. Fears lead to weapons buildups, and weapons beg to be used.
I would like to see less fear mongering, and more reasoned discussion about the actual threats and reasonable countermeasures. Pushing the fear button benefits no one.
Categories: Computer and Information Security, Cyberwar and Cyberterrorism, National Security Policy


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Prosecutor: Dad threw toddler off bridge
FREEHOLD, N.J. -- His mind clouded by worry and lack of sleep, Arthur Morgan III strapped his 2 1/2-year-old daughter into her car seat and placed her in a creek to let God decide her fate.
That is what a public defender told a jury that Morgan, who was without a job and living in his car, did on Nov. 21, 2011, the day his daughter, Tierra Morgan-Glover, died.
But Jordan Williams, an assistant Monmouth County prosecutor, painted a much different tale. He said Morgan tossed Tierra off a bridge in order to wrest control of the girl's life from her mother. When detectives asked Morgan if he had tethered a metal car jack to the child's car seat as an anchor, he replied, "Yeah, like a ball and chain," Williams said.
The competing versions of what happened to Tierra is the key question jurors must decide during Morgan's murder trial — and the key points both sides made during opening arguments.
Morgan, 29, may have acted recklessly when he put Tierra in the creek at Shark River Park, but he did not necessarily intend for her to die, according to Ryan Moriarty, deputy assistant public defender.
"Was Tierra thrown off a bridge, or placed there and left for God to determine the outcome?" Moriarty asked the jury in his opening statement.
Williams had his own answer.
"The state intends to show he didn't just leave her in that stream in shallow water so she could die," Williams said. "The state will show he threw her from the bridge 20 feet below."
Williams said Morgan, whose last known address was in Eatontown, planned ahead by pawning jewelry and cashing his last paycheck to finance a getaway to "sunny California."
Tierra wore a pink Old Navy pea coat on the afternoon of Nov. 21, 2011, when her father picked her up from her mother for an afternoon outing. Morgan was supposed to take his daughter to see a movie, "Happy Feet II."
"She was excited, of course," Williams said. "She was on her way to see her father — the father whom she loved, the father whom she trusted very much."
Tierra carried with her a LeapPad that she played with in the back seat of her father's white 1995 Cadillac Deville as he drove around for hours instead of taking her to the movie, Williams said.
Several witnesses, including a Wall police officer, testified Wednesday that they saw a car similar to Morgan's in Shark River Park in Wall that afternoon. Some witnesses said the car was parked on the narrow bridge.
According to Williams, minutes after Morgan threw the child into the creek, he gathered her belongings into her "Dora the Explorer" bag, tossed them into a dumpster and went to a liquor store with a friend,.
Then, he called Tierra's mother, Imani Benton, to tell her he was running a little late to return Tierra home, Williams said.
Morgan's friend, Jamar Bass, dropped Morgan off that night at the Asbury Park train station, where Morgan began a journey that would take him across the country to San Diego, Williams said.
When Morgan hadn't returned Tierra by 11 p.m., Benton called the Lakehurst police to report the child missing, Williams said.
Jeff Emmons, who at the time worked as a Lakehurst patrolman, testified that he took the report. As a missing persons investigation was underway, police found Morgan's car outside Bass' apartment, Emmons said.
Emmons said he and Detective Brian Haggerty went there the next day and saw no sign of the child.
Haggerty testified that he and Emmons later learned that Tierra's belongings were found in a nearby dumpster. By then, they realized it was no longer a missing persons investigation they were working on, but a homicide, he said.
They went to question Bass, who told them he had taken Morgan to the train station, Haggerty testified. Later that afternoon, they learned that Tierra's body was found in the creek at the park.
The trial is scheduled to resume Thursday.


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Global Telemetry for Water Networks Market will help you understand, formulate and implement strategic decisions by offering critical data, insights and analysis from technology as well as commercial perspective on the Telemetry for Water Networks market.
This research report provides an in-depth analysis of the global Telemetry for Water Networks Market based on enterprise size, services, solution, end-use industry, and geography. The report also provides an analysis of the factors that drive and restrain the growth of the Telemetry for Water Networks market.
It discusses the prevailing market trends, prospective growth opportunities, and major strategies increasing the popularity of the global market. It provides market estimates and forecasts for all the segments in terms of revenue.
The report covers all the major trends and technologies playing a major role in the market growth over the forecast period. The competition in the global market for Telemetry for Water Networks will likely heat up in the next couple of years on the back of entry of a substantial number of solution providers.
This statistical surveying report presents an all-inclusive assessment of the worldwide market for Telemetry for Water Networks, taking several market verticals, such as the production capacity, product pricing, the dynamics of demand and supply, sales volume, revenue, and the growth rate of this market into consideration.
Company Profiled: The Key Players operating in the Telemetry for Water Networks Market includes SCADA Softwareta, Inc, Watch Technologies, Silver Bullet Water Treatment , In-Situ Inc, Xylem Inc, Powelectrics, Telemetry Ltd, High Tide Technologies, McCrometer, Lindsay Corporation, Electrosense Technologies, Dwr Cymru Cyf, QLD Windmill and Solar, Eureka Water Probe, Dfa-inc, Forshock, ProPumpService, OTT Hydromet Legal information, G1, Sofrel, Schneider electric, Siemens, Semaphore, Power Electrics, Solinst, Valarm, Bentek Systems, Stevenswater.
The report provides competitive landscape of the Telemetry for Water Networks market, thereby listing out all the major players according to their geographic presence, market attractiveness and recent key developments. The competitive landscape section of the report gives an overview about the market share of several key players for the year 2017.
Moreover, key takeaways section provided at the end of competitive landscape section would help the operating companies to make the best move in the market.
These market estimates have been analyzed by taking into account the impact of different political, social, economic, technological, and legal factors along with the current market dynamics affecting the market growth. Factors including market position, offerings and R&D focus are attributed to company's capabilities.
This section also identifies and includes various recent developments carried out by the leading players.
The regional analysis of the Global Market splits the global market into key regions that include both continents as well as specific countries that are currently shining in terms of either demand, volume or overall growth. Users of the report can focus on these regions if they are looking to expand their business borders.
The stages of development of Telemetry for Water Networks market with respect to many geographic regions have also been presented thoroughly. This information which is provided helps the emerging players gain up-to-date information which can help them take perfect business decisions.
In similar way, many other segments and sub segments are mentioned in this market helping in conveying impeccable data to the users.
Table of Contents
Global Telemetry for Water Networks Market Research Report 2017
Chapter 1 Telemetry for Water Networks Market Overview
Chapter 2 Global Economic Impact on Industry
Chapter 3 Global Market Competition by Manufacturers
Chapter 4 Global Production, Revenue (Value) by Region
Chapter 5 Global Supply (Production), Consumption, Export, Import by Regions
Chapter 6 Global Production, Revenue (Value), Price Trend by Type
Chapter 7 Global Market Analysis by Application
Chapter 8 Manufacturing Cost Analysis
Chapter 9 Industrial Chain, Sourcing Strategy and Downstream Buyers
Chapter 10 Marketing Strategy Analysis, Distributors/Traders
Chapter 11 Market Effect Factors Analysis
Chapter 12 Global Market Forecast
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Search Maps
MapA collection of plans of fortifications and battles, 1684-1709 : [Europe] Relief shown by hachures and pictorially. Title from cover of composite atlas. Dates on maps range from 1684 to 1709. Beeck was the publisher of battle plans at The Hague from 1702...
- Contributor: Baillieu, Gaspar De. - Beeck, Anna
- Date: 1709
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Maginot Technologies necesitaba un nuevo diseño de logotipo y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 3955 diseños de 759 diseñadores freelance.
We are building a new company called CloudCrowd. It is going to be a place on the net where people come to work on projects, and where companies and individuals come to get work done.
99designs is a great example of vibrant crowdsourcing. We're doing something similar, but on a more general basis.It's a marketplace like you find at http://www.mturk.com. The basic premises are these:1) There are a lot of people in the world who want to work but don't or can't fit into conventional "go to the office" models. More and more of these people are getting connected to the Internet.
2) In addition, increased, ubiquitous connectivity is bringing Internet connectivity to places where a lot of time is wasted. Sitting in an airport terminal, or suffering in a long commute.
3) The Internet already does a great job of providing support for consultant-type work at places like elance and odesk.
4) But what about chopping up work into even smaller pieces?There are a lot of tasks out there that are individually easy to do, but collectively valuable. For example, many web sites have to individually review every picture that gets submitted to make sure that the pictures don't violate various policies (for example, "no naked people".)
5) We're going to make it possible for people who want to work on projects to do so when they want to, where they want to, and in whatever blocks of time they want to.
6) On the business side, we think we'll be able to offer solutions to companies that just weren't cost feasible before, creating growth and enlarging the pie.
Anyways, that's the current rough draft of what we're building. =)
This is primarily a consumer experience. We hope that tens of thousands of people will come through this portal to work on a wide range of tasks. So we don't want it to be too stuffy. At the same time, we're going to market to businesses, so we can't be too frivolous.We think the name gives designers a lot to work with. For those unfamiliar with the nomenclature, the "Cloud" implies the Internet itself, in the sense that one connects to one part of the cloud without worrying about the details of the insides of the Cloud.
We'll evolve this logo into a website design, which may create additional work opportunities for the winning designer (or may stimulate a new 99designs contest).
Not too formal, not too silly.
Descubre cómo funciona un concurso de diseño u obtén más información sobre nuestros servicios de diseño de logo.


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Physicians are encouraged to follow professional guidelines when prescribing weight-loss medications. The current guidelines stress that a lifestyle weight-loss program should always be the primary treatment for obesity. Medications, if used, should be a secondary treatment and their use limited to obese individuals (or individuals who are overweight and have weight-related health complications).1
How Weight-Loss Drugs Work
The prescription weight-loss drugs on the market today work in one of two ways. One group works on brain neurotransmitters (chemicals that communicate between nerve cells) to reduce appetite. Examples of these drugs include diethylpropion (brand name Tenuate), phendimetrazine (many brand names including Bontril, Adipost, Anorex-SR, Appecon ) and phentermine (many brand names including Adipex-P, Ionomin, Obenix, Oby-Trim).
The second type of weight-loss medication works in the intestines to prevent fat calories from entering the body. Orlistat (brand name Xenical) is the only drug currently available by prescription that works in this way.
The short-term side effects of certain drugs to treat depression, seizures, or diabetes include weight loss. These drugs have not been approved by the FDA for use as weight-loss drugs. 2
Calories Still Count
Taking a prescription weight-loss medication does not guarantee weight loss. Calories still count and drugs should be combined with efforts to change diet and physical activity. The drugs support this effort by helping the person taking them reduce caloric intake (by suppressing appetite or preventing fat absorption). Average weight loss is 5-10% of initial body weight. 3 And, as is common with many drugs, some people simply don't respond at all.
Risk of Side Effects
As with all medication, weight-loss drugs have potential side effects. Appetite suppressants can cause nervousness and sleeplessness. 2 Orlistat is associated with gastrointestinal disturbances (e.g., oily diarrhea). 2,4
While regular medical monitoring is an important part of any obesity treatment program, it is especially important when weight-loss medications are included.
view footnotes
Other Science Library Topics:
1Identification, Evaluation, and Treatment of Overweight and Obesity in Adults NIH/NHLBI
2Weight-control Information Network. Prescription Medications for the Treatment of Obesity.
3Halford JC. Clinical pharmacotherapy for obesity: current drugs and those in advanced development. Curr Drug Targets. 2004 Oct;5(7):637-46
4Padwal R, Li SK, Lau DC. Long-term pharmacotherapy-term pharmacotherapy for obesity and overweight. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2004;(3):CD004094.


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Grassy, wind-swept beaches brushed by the Atlantic's rolling foam. Secluded Pamlico Sound fishing communities somehow overlooked by time. Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, treasures of the Atlantic coast, rejuvenate vacationers, carrying them beyond the clutches of their day-to-day humdrum to a place where tranquility has survived the centuries.
A river of sand flowing between the Atlantic Ocean and Pamlico Sound, the historic islands are among America's most unique vacation destinations. From atop the famous Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke lighthouses, you can witness the stillness of the dawn give way to a bustle of activity. Bicycle tours, making their way through Ocracoke, are glimpsed beneath the canopy of oak and red cedar groves. Kayaks glide across Silver Lake Harbor while crabbers and anglers drop their lines from the pier. As deep-sea fishing boat charters return to port with their morning haul, surfers usher the white-capped tide ashore. A parade of waverunners, windsurfers and kiteboarders take to the wind and waves while the sun climbs the sky.
Steeped in centuries of history, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands are home to several amazing museums. The Graveyard of the Atlantic and Frisco Native American museums, as well as the Ocracoke Preservation Society Museum, tell the islands' tale. For a glimpse of life in Hatteras before human history, spend some time strolling the trails at Hammock Hills and the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge, or shelling and bird watching at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore.
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Inside the Search for Planet Nine
Clip: Season 46 | 3m 14s
Follow two astronomers, Mike Brown and Konstantin Batygin, as they're on the hunt for Planet Nine — a hypothesized ninth planet at the edge of our solar system.
Aired: 06/10/19
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I'm in the middle of writing a fan fiction where a character who knows about the events of Fate/Stay Night (and Fate/Zero) is thrown into Fuyuki City, three weeks before the 5th grail war begins. It basically started out as a self-insert series, though I altered the main character a bit and changed quite a few things from my original plan. Other than the MC, I also have an OC Servant, who replaces one of the Servants of the Grail War, though I won't spoil who (not really that big of a spoiler anyway, but w/e).
I wouldn't consider myself a good writer by any means, but I still think it is semi-decent.
Here is a link to the story. If you don't like the prologue I'd suggest reading the first chapter, because the prologue is probably the worst chapter I've written. I'd honestly consider removing it if it weren't for the fact that it is kinda important in setting the relationship between the MC and Rin (no, this doesn't mean a romantic relationship).
Post any of your TYPE-MOON related stories, artwork, etc. This is a spoiler zone, so spoiler tags are NOT required as fan fiction is bound to be full of them. You have been warned.
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