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Drivers Still Hate To Lose
The IZOD IndyCar Series seemingly has been immune to a malady that has afflicted many other sports on several levels – indifference. There have been several instances in the NFL this season that have caused fans to question a player's dedication to their profession. The most noteworthy example played out before a national audience on Monday night a few weeks ago, when Cardinal's quarterback Derek Anderson was caught on camera laughing it up on the sidelines, while his team was getting bludgeoned by the 49ers.
Closer to home; while no one disputes the talents of Titan's running back Chris Johnson, his sideline demeanor made it impossible to tell if the Titan's were in the midst of a six game losing streak or winning streak. Although the Titans exorcised some of their demons yesterday by beating the Texans, Johnson was caught on camera late in the Titans-Texans game three weeks ago clowning around with teammates in the late stages of a 20-0 shutout. The Titans are so bad this year that no one but the two local markets saw the game, but it got mentioned a few times here the following week.
This isn't limited to professional football. College players have been too willing lately to mug for cameras and lose their game face regardless of which end of the scoreboard they are on. The same goes for college and pro basketball. Don't get me wrong – I think players should have fun and not be so stoic all the time, but I think that they should act like losing bothers them as much as it bothers their fans.
Although there is plenty of time for clowning around in the IZOD IndyCar Series, the drivers seem to know when to cut the act and get down to business. Scan the faces of the drivers during the singing of the National Anthem prior to the Indianapolis 500. Not many of them look like they are contemplating their next celebration dance.
Which brings me to another rant regarding the NFL…what is it with these pre-game speeches from the most vocal player on the team (Ray Lewis, Drew Brees, etc) that is followed by what sounds like a pack of barking dogs? Talk about contrived – they all seem to wait before the cameras for NFL Films is there before starting their chant. Every team has started to do it within just the past few years. It's ridiculous sounding. If that ritual motivates anyone, I question their drive. I cannot imagine Scott Dixon leading his crew through a series of chants and responses like that. Anyway, I digress…
This may be one reason why I'm so attracted to racing. All of the participants still take it very seriously. Granted, the consequences of a mistake are much higher in motor sports than in stick and ball sports. If someone gets too careless and misses a blocking assignment, the quarterback might get sacked. The worst outcome is that the team may lose a game or worse yet, the quarterback might sustain an injury.
In the IZOD IndyCar Series – a mistake can cost someone his or her life. Each week, about 1,400 players will participate in an NFL game. Yes, many will be injured – some injuries will be career threatening and life-altering. Very few will sustain life-threatening injuries. The only player fatality in the NFL that I am aware of was in 1971, when Chuck Hughes of the Detroit Lions collapsed on his way back to the huddle and died of a heart attack during a game against the Chicago Bears.
Unfortunately, death will always be a part of racing. Whether or not Randy Bernard and most fans (myself included) get their wish to start pushing for new track records, if you hit the wall in the wrong spot going over 200 mph – the consequences can be deadly. I don't know if a lot of people realize how lucky Vitor Meira was to come away from his 2009 crash at Indy with "only" a broken back. Had that crash occurred a few years ago before the SAFER barriers were installed (thanks to NASCAR, no doubt), he probably would not have survived.
Although racers will never publicly acknowledge that death ever enters their thought process, the possibility is always there and it probably affects their demeanor prior to a race.
But what about after a race? Fans complain when a driver criticizes her…eh, um…their crew for not doing something right, but in some ways – you can't blame them. If a crew member forgets to put the right bolt back on correctly, it's the driver that suffers far worse consequences than the crew member. But it's not just their own safety that a driver frets about after a race. Drivers still hate to lose.
A couple of weeks ago, I was chastised for saying that Rafa Matos appeared to accept losing. I didn't say he DID accept it, I said he gave that appearance that he accepted losing. I don't pretend to know what goes on his head. I've never met Rafa Matos. I can only go by the brief glimpses I'm given through television. But from what I saw, Matos never gave the impression that he was terribly bothered by another bad day at the track. There is a fine line between being a good sport and being OK with losing. Of course, it might explain why an announcement is coming later today that will more than likely announce that his seat at de Ferran Dragon is being given to Tony Kanaan.
Some accuse Kanaan of being a brooding pouter. He can be, when he loses or is given an uncompetitive car. Based on the car that Matos was driving the past two seasons, he may be pouting a lot more. But I'll promise you that Kanaan's presence will get better performance from that entire team than the nonchalant attitude of Matos.
Some of the older NFL players do seem to care when their team loses. There is no question who won the game when Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is at the podium. It's the younger generation of players who know that regardless of how they played on Sunday, they'll still be getting a check on Tuesday. I'm personally glad that Will Power was almost despondent after slapping the wall at Homestead and costing himself the championship. He should have been. Had he gotten out of the car wearing a smile and joking around, I would have questioned his desire and commitment. As a fan, it bothers me that I care more about the outcome of a Titans game than some of the players
Although the IZOD IndyCar Series is on a definite upswing right now, there is no denying that there have been some very serious and legitimate concerns by fans in the past. Some of the previous administration made some very bone-headed moves and the league suffered accordingly. But not once did I ever hear any fans say that they thought the drivers were indifferent about their performance. Winning and losing still matters to them.
George Phillips
7 Responses to "Drivers Still Hate To Lose"
I think auto racing is still inherently dangerous in a way that football, basketball, etc., isn't. Now, there are some hardcore competitors in thaose sports. You don't find Peyton Manning laughing at a blowout; Kevin Garnett has a white-hot focus on winning.
But honestly, endeavors like the NFL have paled for me in recent years. I don't like the overhyped, overproduced "entertainment" game it's become, played by athletes who at times seem apathetic. As I said, there's great competitors in the NFL, but you notice the Chris Johnson and Derek Anderson cases, you know? Thank goodness I have IndyCar.
I think–in pro sports–that the competition is still pretty intense when and if the game means something. When the game is meaningless, as many of them are, the intensity falters a bit. Also the money is so huge that they sometimes have to consider the cost/benefit factor. Like–do I really want to go up for that pass on a crossing route in December when my team is out of the playoffs anyway. Racers–Indy and Nascar–seem pretty focused most of the time for the reasons you stated. But there are start and parkers in Nascar and there are non-competitive teams in Indycar who just put down laps.
Chris Johnson can't help that his coach has lost the team and his head can stray because of it. As for the pregame pep talk from the captains and coaches, that has always been a part of the game. The cameras know its coming and get to the players to show it because it makes for great TV. We did it in high school and that was a long time ago. As for IndyCar drivers, I wouldn't pull for one who didn't want to win. I still follow Tony Stewart in NASCAR because of that trait and it is something I liked about AJ Foyt. I can only follow those that want to win like that.
I've been around pro athletes of all sports (especially baseball) a lot, and they are all insanely competitive individuals. You have to be in order to get to that level. I had an uncle who was a pro baseball player and played college basketball, and he HATED to lose. I remember him once even talking trash and then getting upset when he lost a game of lawn darts at a family reunion.
Some just don't show it the way we would like them to, and others reach the point where they are only concerned about themselves (I do think Johnson is a guy who doesn't care about winning or losing, so long as he gets his carries).
In some sports where the season is so long you have to keep and even keel or it will eat you alive. So those guys go out to win ever game, but at the same time they don't live or die with it. A baseball player would have to be committed if they did. "That's baseball" is a phrase I hear a lot from guys because one, they know even in an MVP year they are going to make 400 outs in a year and two, when you win 100 games you still lose two months worth of them, and most of those losses are out of your control.
I think IndyCar drivers have to have a more laser-like focus than other athletes given their margin of error, but to say they care about winning and losing more than other athletes is a broad stroke. That said, what I do like about IndyCar is that EVERY RACE COUNTS. You don't have the luxury of having a bad day, in many of the ways you mentioned, especially when it comes to the championship. So of course many of these guys are going to take winning and losing very personally, as they well should.
Yes there is nothing contrived in racing.
The NASCAR victory lane celebrations. Victory donuts and burnouts. Danica putting on her "show" after someone has wronged her. Paul Tracy playing a WWE character. Kyle Busch doing the same. The Waltrip's. Digger The Gopher.
Most of these race drivers are from very, very privaledged families and have more money then they could ever spend anyway. And in NASCAR you can make millions of dollars by just running 26th every week and selling a bunch of souvineer crap.
Wow, it had been a long time since the last time I strongly disagreed with one of your articles, George.
A few minutes after Castroneves lost the 2010 Edmonton race, he was smiling at the camera. He wasn't happy at all, yet he wanted people to look at him and feel ok. After all, sport is just another form of entertainment. Drivers and all sportsmen feel bad when they lose, but that shouldn't forbid them to feel good that they had a nice race / match of the sprot they love to do.


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For tourists who love discovery, scuba-diving will be a favorite activity on Halong Bay. By scuba-diving, tourists will have chance to see the wonderful underwater world of Halong by their all eyes.
>> Things to do
Overview of Halong Bay
Halong Bay is a spectacular location for sightseeing in Vietnam. Located in the Gulf of Tonkin, it forms an amazing seascape of limestone pillars along with more than 1,600 islands and islets. Travelers coming to Halong Bay will enjoy not only the boat trip, sea kayaking but also the very scuba diving experience. Scuba diving has been recently opened in Halong Bay making this place a must-sea for underwater lovers. The time from April to December is the most wonderful period for Travellers to join "Halong Bay Scuba Diving". The temperature of water at this time is from 26-29 celsius degrees.
Scuba Diving – An amazing acitivity for visitors
Scuba diving with Halong Voyage – a the special product which no one has done before in Halong bay. Travelers can explore hidden beauty underwater with thousands of splendid coral and fish like sergeant major fish, Clark's anemone fish. Tourists will see colorful their method survive. Underwater world will make you to feel novel, small and peaceful as come back inside your mother. Tourist will perfect relax and excited to discovery underwater world. With internationally-licensed, well-trained scuba divers and assistants, we guarantee the safety, papering amenities with friendly and attentive management which make you unforgettable experience.
When tourists snorkel underwater in Halong bay, you will provide useful equipment such as: mask, fins, snorkel, cylinder, exposure suite, compass, regulator… All facilities are regularly checked and match safety standard. Therefore, it's unnecessary to worry about your safety.
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subset: commoncrawl


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Post-Tropical Cyclone ORLENE
ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016 ...ORLENE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 127.7W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Orlene was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 127.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). The system should continue moving toward the west at a faster forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN


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Obamacare Politics Produce Poor Policies
On the final day of the Supreme Court's 2012 term, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. issued his blockbuster decision on the constitutionality of Obamacare — aka the Affordable Care Act. In a single opinion, Justice Roberts gave us a treatise on constitutional law in National Federation of Independent Businesses v. Kathleen Sebelius. The complex opinion, far from ending litigation, resulted in Oklahoma amending its suit challenging the constitutionality of Obamacare. The states are still grappling with the choice of expanding Medicaid or forgoing additional Medicaid funds from Washington.
In a nutshell, here's what the court held: First, Justices Antonin Scalia, Samuel Anthony Alito Jr., Clarence Thomas and Anthony M. Kennedy, writing jointly, agreed with Justice Roberts that the mandate requiring persons to purchase health insurance or pay a penalty is not within the Commerce Power. Congress cannot force people to engage in commerce in order to regulate them.
Second, the same five justices held that the mandate is also not covered by the Necessary and Proper Clause. That clause must be tied to some other enumerated power, such as the Commerce Power. Congress cannot create a problem by passing a statute like Obamacare, which requires that insurance companies cover pre‐existing conditions and not raise premiums, then claim constitutional authority for a specific provision, like the insurance mandate, because it's necessary to fix the problem that Congress itself created. In addition, the mandate had no limiting principle, so even if it were necessary, it could not be considered "proper" within a federal system supposedly constrained by limited and enumerated powers.
But the government ultimately got what it wanted. Justice Roberts, joined by the four liberal justices, held that the mandate is authorized under the Taxing Power. Even though Congress and the president called the fee for not buying insurance a penalty — and even though Justice Roberts said the fee should be treated as a penalty under the Anti‐Injunction Act — when he interpreted the fee for constitutional purposes, what mattered was how the fee functioned, not how it was labeled. He concluded that the fee operates much the same as a tax and is therefore authorized under the Taxing Power.
Finally, Justice Roberts and six justices (all except Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor) held that federally directed Medicaid expansion is unconstitutional if noncooperating states would otherwise lose all of their funding. That's coercive. But if the states would lose only new funds for expansion, that's permissible under the Spending Power.
From a constitutional perspective, the decision was a mixed bag. The good parts are new limits on the Commerce and Spending Powers. Those limits are very important going forward. But the Taxing Power argument could be pernicious. If the Roberts opinion were interpreted to mean that Congress could force you to do whatever it wants by penalizing you for not doing it — and if your only recourse were the ballot box — that would eradicate the notion of limited government under a republic bound by a Constitution.
On the other hand, that's not quite what Justice Roberts wrote. According to him, when a tax crosses some threshold, it can become coercive and leave the individual no option. At that point, no one would pay the tax. Its purpose would be to force people to buy a product; it would be purely punitive and thus would no longer qualify as a tax. So the Taxing Power has a built‐in limit, although we don't know precisely what that limit is. What we do know is that the Obamacare "tax" was too small to cross the limit. If Justice Roberts had upheld the mandate under the Commerce Clause, the power would have been unlimited.
If the limits on government are to be stretched, better under the Taxing Power than under the Commerce Clause. Taxes are politically toxic, and that limits their use. Moreover, the Taxing Power imposes monetary burdens when you do something wrong, such as not buying insurance. By contrast, the Commerce Power can impose prison when you do something wrong, such as violating federal drug laws.
The Roberts opinion is a masterpiece of political compromise. It gives something to everyone. It suggests that Justice Roberts was intent on consensus‐building and ensuring that the court doesn't have an overtly political or ideological cast. Those motives aren't inherently bad unless, as in this case, they lead to legal analyses that condone an unconstitutional law. That's why Justice Roberts' Obamacare opinion ultimately failed. Once again, the court found a way to expand the reach of the federal government at the expense of individual liberty.


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Content is king online. Our mission at Say It For You is to create content based on understanding you, your business and your message. Content that is accurate, current, consistent, and dependable. Content that attracts new customers and keeps your regulars coming back. Content that gets you noticed online and makes your business stand out from the competition.
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Margaret Thatcher Makes a Comeback in Asia
South Korea's President Park Geun-hye and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have both shown support for the Iron Lady's uncompromising approach to politics. The WSJ's Yuka Hayashi tells Mariko Sanchanta why Margaret Thatcher is Asia's new role model.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
... the ... Martin Thatcher is now back in the limelight in Asia at least ... as Japan and South Korea's leaders pay tribute to her ... welcome to Asia today on my because Sanchanta ... joining me now from Tokyo is Wall Street Journal reporter Yuka hideout she ... yet that the great story in today's paper where basically you say that Prime Minister Abbe ... on and that president of South Korea Mr. Park ... had been paying tribute to Margaret Thatcher tummy little bit about why that's happening now ... when I know we know what the article because we've noticed that there is growing up action ... among politicians in both countries ... that the above list are looking for strong leaders ... and this is coming at a time of growing ... regional ... bank as CTV and other anxieties and also I the difficulty ... in the economic environment ... um so I did both BAS and I did ... spark a hopping trying to paint themselves as the strong meters ... and they have protected their own I he makes ... up against a visit that Dennis who was the snow it has as the eye and they can ... I love the little accent that you had in this story waisted Ave actually cried when watching the eye in the air now ... a center that Japanese politicians much less prime ministers admit to crying or something why is I mean tell me about how he and culture in Parliament the other day ... I guess I hear is that it was quite interesting I'm that nice to have it did say that he cried out when he wants and the idea maybe but he did not cry when he wants having zero ... I'm ... in a comfy a few weeks after he ... watched ... the movie on DVD eyed TNT Rebekah a policy foreign policy speech to Parliament ... and he sported a one line from this this this is that just ... for her biography ... away he she she discussed ... her aam ... experience aam ... of of the Opel plant of conflicts ... and and to use their ideas remark was quite controversial ... because of what he listed was complaining and ingredient becomes experience of older coal plants ... I'd to BP a dispute that Japan is currently on housing with it I know I he I haven't seen the East China Sea ... ahh and that that that was the result of the Opel clan of the crisis ... which was able to up hold on ... to its sovereignty over those items they came at the cost of several hundred thousand people's minds ... and I think what's even more interesting is the parallel that we're seeing to South Korea's first female president Ms Park ... and Ms Thatcher and the date many similarities there facing an oath ... on this of this president dealing with North Korea to scintillating government ... on the manufactured out with ... the cold war of course ... the people in Korea especially in comparing this part and get faster ... um that I know who you'll sell to yet it is important for our present Park ... true to herself as a strong need it because TomTom is a conservative society ... where aam ... and did it to female readers have had ... difficulty of having an influence ... I so it's important to to to to to to be known as a strong leader ... I didn't ... and she has it in the ... history of being beat up on ... both her parents were assassinated in ... aam grandfather was a constant ... and I dare ... you on her mother was assessed assassinated ... he served as first lady two of her father ... I and when the father was assassinated ice sheet of famously said that ... the first thing she said was is the border to kill ... um so I'm ... that's that's the teenage that and that she still had to end her association with that was nice to ... get back to ... the Supreme Court to set in ... well it's a fantastic colorful story thank so much for joining us today Yuka hideout she Wall Street Journal reporter in Tokyo ... facial today on my because Sanchanta thanks for watching


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Event detail
Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater
Performing Arts - Dance | April 12 – 14, 2018 every day | 8-10 p.m. | Zellerbach Hall
Under the direction of Robert Battle, Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater continues to nurture a new generation of choreographers steeped in the African-American experience. With repertoire that looks back to seminal works like Aileys own Revelations, and new material that engages with vital social movements, the company creates dances with the power to transform.
This performance is part of Cal Performances Berkeley RADICAL Joining Generations strand, which explores the work of four generations of African-American choreographers
who have expanded the boundaries of contemporary dance. Each speaks profoundly and deliberately to identity in different ways. More information at calperformances.org/berkeley-radical-joining-generations.
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As political turmoil continues between Islamists and secularists in Bangladesh, the climate for press freedom is rapidly deteriorating. The tensions stem from an ongoing war crimes tribunal tasked with prosecuting genocide, crimes against humanity, and other crimes dating back to the 1971 war of independence.
Some critics feel that the tribunal, in which several Islamists are standing trial, does not meet international human rights standards, while the opposition, which includes Islamist parties, argue it is being used as a tool by the ruling Awami League to target political opponents. After a senior Islamist leader was given a life term in February, crowds took to the streets to call for the death penalty. These demonstrations--termed the Shahbagh movement--have been widely promoted by secular bloggers in Bangladesh. Islamists responded with protests of their own, saying the bloggers were blasphemous and calling for them to be put to death.
Amid the tensions, journalists and media outlets--some of which are heavily politicized in Bangladesh--are being targeted by all sides with arrests, censorship, and violence. The situation seems to be spiraling out of control.


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FutureAngels.com Goes Twitter
I've signed up for Twitter. To follow my "tweets," go to www.twitter.com/futureangels. Click Follow to receive my updates; if you don't have a Twitter account, click on Join Today.
If you're not familiar with Twitter, Click Here to read the Wikipedia entry. I'm not all that familiar with it myself, so if some of you can sign up it will help me to get the hang of it.
The idea is to use Twitter to send out messages when there's news or other items of interest. When I'm at a minor league game, I'll send tweets during the game to tell you what's going on.
I'll start the tweets on Monday from The Epicenter in Rancho Cucamonga. The Quakes players report that day. They'll be posing for head shots and team photos, and will be available to the media. Later that night is a welcoming dinner with the host parents. So it will be a good opportunity to give you little behind-the-scenes snippets as events unfold.
Of course, the FutureAngels.com web site and the FutureAngels.com Blog will continue.


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California Blue Ribbon Commission on Children in Foster Care
Closing the Loop: California Blue Ribbon Commission on Foster Care
In March 2006, Chief Justice Ronald M. George established the California Blue Ribbon Commission on Children in Foster Care. A wide range of participants with expertise in child welfare made up the commission, including judges, legislators, child welfare directors, tribal leaders, and foster youth. The commission was charged with providing recommendations to the Judicial Council on ways in which the courts and their partners can improve the safety, permanence, well-being, and fairness outcomes for children and families in the child welfare system.
At the time, there was a pressing need for reforms in the foster care system. In 2006, more than 78,000 children were in foster care in California. More than half of these children had been in the system for more than two years, and many of them had lived in multiple foster homes and were separated from their siblings, with no sense of stability or of belonging to a family or community. Although the juvenile courts are vested with providing protection and supervision for children in foster care, juvenile dependency judges and attorneys were overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases.
In 2008, the Blue Ribbon Commission issued its recommendations for sweeping reforms to the state's juvenile dependency courts. The Judicial Council unanimously accepted these recommendations, and in June 2009, the Chief Justice extended the commission for three years and added implementation activities to its charge.
The recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Commission fell into four areas:
- Achieving permanent placement for foster children. Recommendations in this area include engaging family members as early as possible, encouraging adoption, and extending support for youth to the age of 21, rather than ending services when they turn 18.
- Implementing court reform. Included in this area are recommendations to reduce the caseloads of judicial officers, attorneys, and social workers; ensure that all participants in dependency proceedings have adequate time in court; and ensure that all attorneys, social workers, and court-appointed special advocates are adequately trained.
- Encouraging collaboration among courts and child welfare partners. This area includes recommendations for enhancing the sharing of information with all partners of the court, establishing foster care commissions on the county level to help implement the Blue Ribbon Commission's recommendations, and reaching out to Native American communities to ensure that their children and families receive the services available to them.
- Allocating resources and funding. In this area, the commission recommends prioritizing foster care when allocating resources, advocating for greater flexibility in the use of funds for child-abuse prevention, and expanding educational services for foster children.
In August 2010, the Blue Ribbon Commission issued a report that noted progress in several key areas. Early indications are that active court oversight and better representation in the juvenile dependency courts is already making a significant difference for the children and families who enter the child welfare system. Commission members believe that much of this progress is due to the collaborative efforts of all the state's child welfare partners, including the courts, social services, court-appointed special advocates, Native American tribes, and philanthropic organizations.
Local foster care commissions are now active in more than 40 counties. These local commissions are working in their communities to identify and address the recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Commission and to build the capacity to provide necessary services to children and families in the foster care system. The Administrative Office of the Courts is providing ongoing support to these local commissions through its Juvenile Court Assistance Team (JCAT).
Beginning in January 2012, a new law will give foster children turning 18 the opportunity to remain in supervised care until age 21 with federal assistance. The California Fostering Connections to Success Act (AB 12) will require youth choosing this option to attend school, college, or career-oriented programs or to work a minimum of 80 hours a month in order to receive funding. The bill also provides transitional housing support until age 21 to those who qualify. This legislation gives young adults in foster care a leg up; previously, youths who remained in care at 18 were often released on their own with few resources.
The number of children in foster care continues to decease. This trend, which began in 2000, has continued in most counties and accelerated in others. In Los Angeles County, the foster care caseload dropped from 25,000 children in 2007 to 18,000 in 2011. Alameda County had a caseload of 5,000 foster care children in 2007; by 2011, this number had fallen to 1,500. Statewide, the number of children in foster care has decreased from 75,000 in 2008 to 63,000 in 2011.
This decrease in the number of children in foster care creates a positive cumulative effect: As courts and social services have more resources to deal with each individual foster child, they are more likely to find a permanent resolution to each case. This takes more children out of the system—which then frees up additional resources. In a time of reduced funding, the California Blue Ribbon Commission on Children in Foster Care has created a flourishing collaboration among the juvenile courts and all their partners to further the welfare of children in foster care.
- California has more than 80,000 children in foster care.
- About 10 percent of the nation's children live in California, yet the state is home to approximately 20 percent of the country's foster-care population.
- California spends an estimated $4.7 billion a year on child welfare and related issues, half coming from the federal government, and the other half from state and county funds.
- Fewer than 150 full-time and part-time judicial officers preside over the entire dependency court system.
- Juvenile dependency court attorneys, who represent children and parents in court, had an average caseload of 273—in some counties caseloads rose to 500 or 600—far exceeding the recommended maximum caseload of 188 adopted by the Judicial Council.
Sources for these statistics can be found on the California Courts website.
For More Information about the Commission, Please contact:
415-865-7721 firstname.lastname@example.com


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Five DIY Gifts Kids Can MakeDecember 17, 2012 at 20:18 | Posted in Crafting, Holidays, Kid's Arts & Crafts | Leave a comment
Tags: DIY Holiday gifts, DIY Jewelry, homemade gifts, homemade sachets, kids activities, kids arts and crafts, kids crafts, make a quilt, painting, paper making, sewing kit
Homemade gifts are my favorite for the holidays! Our family has made all sorts of items together over the years as gifts for family and friends, from knitted winter caps to jewelry.
One year, using clay, we created an entire chess set for my husband featuring our family members! He loved it! The best part is getting the kids involved. While they may not have the funds to go purchase gifts for the important people in their lives, they will always have the energy and the love to create their own.
Homemade gifts don't have to be perfect, in fact it's the imperfections that make them valued in people's hearts. Try these DIY gift ideas that your kids can make, and teach them the joy that comes with giving of yourself and your time!
- Artistic Mugs: How awesome will it be for dad to have coffee every morning from a mug lovingly designed especially for him? ALEX has a craft kit that allows kids to make six different porcelain gifts by simply painting and baking. Set aside a few hours for the kids to have a Paint Porcelain Party to make a picture frame, mug, vase, jewelry box and matching tea cup and heart saucer; absolutely adorable gifts that will be cherished for a lifetime.
- Felt Sachets: Sachets are a perfect sewing project, even for beginning sewers. Simply cut two identical felt shapes, then stitch around the edges, and before you close the opening, fill with some potpourri. My First Sewing Kit is a great beginner's sewing kit with everything you need to start sewing right away. In addition to sachets, kids can make quick and easy projects for friends and family such as felt animals and a notebook cover with cool pre-cut patterns.
- Stationary: Purchase plain stationary, and let your little ones decorate the notecards and envelopes with their own unique artwork. Perfect for family that lives far away from you! Older kids can infuse more creativity into their projects by making their own paper with unique flower or magazine cut-outs as designs for cards, photo frames and even gift tags with Paper Factory.
- Make a Quilt: For a totally unique and surprising gift, your child can make a cozy fleece quilt for a loved one by simply knotting together the pieces that come ready to be "quilted' in ALEX's Knot a Quilt kit. It will not only warm the recipient's body, but their heart as well!
- Jewelry: Kids love to use beads and buttons to make a variety of jewelry, including necklaces, bracelets and rings. No aunt can resist wearing homemade jewelry from their nieces! ALEX has loads of kid-friendly jewelry making craft kits sure to please even the most discerning artistic tastes from BFF bracelets, to juice tab, tile and M&M wrapper jewelry. The possibilities are endless as your imagination!
The most special gift your children can give a loved one is a handmade creation; encourage them to give of themselves and their time during the holidays. They'll be giving keepsakes that will last a lifetime.
Today's guest blogger is Angie Knutson, a homeschooling mom of four children, ages 4 to 11. Angie created her parenting and review blog, MyFourMonkeys.com, four years ago and now also writes for DoubleDutyDivasBlog.com, TommyNelson.com, ChiquitaMoms.com, and TheDatingDivas.com, where she shares tips about motherhood, parenting, homeschooling, marriage, and crafting projects. Follow her on Twitter at @MyFourMonkeys.
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I have recently been reminded how different my life is from that of others. I'm still not used to it, after all these years. I have learned a great many valuable lessons along the way and will, with your permission share a few of those with you today…How much time do you have?
- 1. Small pleasures count. It's okay to lick the spoon. You just shouldn't double dip, but heck, if you made it, you get first choice…and second.
- 2. No one else is going to feel what you feel in your body nor are they capable of visiting it and knowing the
- , the spasms or the degree of it all.
- 3. You must forgive them for this; they can't help it.
- 4. You can share knowledge, cooties, attitude, memories, etc. but you can't share pain.
- 5. One feels a bit more freedom when one suffers. I'm not certain how it works but it is cathartic, like a large dose of
- 6. When life slows down, or you're down for a while, your vision is affected…
- 7. Small objects become larger as you notice a bug scurrying, a spider spinning and swinging, a crack in the ceiling and a curtain waving in the breeze.
- 8. Priorities completely change in a life with pain.
- 9. The dust can pile on a little thicker, that hair ball can grow a life of its own, a cobweb becomes your friend and the dirty floor is a reminder of what you ate or the dog did.
- 10. Things you didn't have time to notice, previously, now become objects of beauty; a freckle of brown on your dog, a lick from a lonely pup, the purr in your cat's throat as it quivers beneath your hand.
- 11. One day you realize you are different and it's going to be okay. You may even learn to like the new you better than the old you.
- 12. If you're walking has slowed, you'll see far more, like the kite up above your head with a rainbow tail, the lady bug crossing the sidewalk or some jerk yelling in
- . (And you won't care about him but instead feel only pity as he rushes to get nowhere.)
- 13. Most of your relatives will never understand; and they'll worry your problems might be lurking in their DNA.
- 14. The friends who call you more often, never judge you and truly listen are to be cherished. They are precious gifts. Any others are disposable until the next time something goes wrong in their own lives. Then the ball is in your court; to forgive or not forgive.
- 15. You find the little choices are important and you begin to wonder about the difference between big and little in their importance, their significance and their value in your life.
- 16. You discover if you talk too much about your "condition" you are the only one left in the room.
- 17. You find yourself contemplating words and values, long forgotten like "worth," "cherish" and "valor."
- 18. It is often a good idea to stand in front of a mirror and contemplate who you are. Are you a wife, a mother, a worker, a professional? Is your value one of bringing in money? Is being useful as important as self-discovery? If that is true, than some days your score will be your pain one, your usefulness, kaput.
- 19. Of course, doing things for others is important, loving matters as does giving, serving, etc. but it just might be about just being, might it not?
- 20. You may discover you are a precious soul, unique in all ways and the only one of you that will ever be. Find room away from your pain to rejoice in your individuality, your worth and the talents only you have been given. Try them out, enjoy them, and enjoy you and those around you. Put pain on the back burner and don't let it win.
Well, my dear friends, the battle rages on. We are the soldiers, not the prize. We are the victors if we decide to be. Embrace all that is good and life affirming; reject the bad, the negative, because it will only drag you down. Choose life. Find your inner courage; I know it's there. Now…go find it.
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|Perl-Sensitive Sunglasses
comment on
|( #3333=superdoc: print w/replies, xml )
|Need Help??
If your defintion is something everyone needs, how does Oracle make it onto the list but not perl? A database server by itself isn't that interesting without something to pull data from it, display the results to the user, and allow the user to change the database. The thing which transports the data to the user is just as necessary as that which stores it.
If your answer is that another language could do it so no language is enterprise software, then I say that a database server doesn't qualify either because another database server could do it.
I'm not convinced one way or the other, but the defintions that people use don't match up with what they actually think, which is why I started this whole thing :)
brian d foy <email@example.com>
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In reply to Re^2: What is Enterprise Software?
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Illinois Budget 2.27.09
Illinois Budget 2.27.09
Here are the top Illinois stories coming today from GateHouse News Service. Stories are available at www.gatehousenewsservice.com. Please check www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/news in the evening for changes to story lineup, including breaking news.
If your paper has a story, digest item, opinion piece or standalone photo to share, please e-mail it to email@example.com.
Casey Laughman: (217) 816-3343, email@example.com
The daily Illinois budget can be found online at http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/budget. Budget updates will be posted there.
New weekly feature: 5 things to do this weekend http://ghnewsroom.com/article/new-weekly-feature-5-things-do-weekend
Get variety of resources for covering stimulus package: http://ghnewsroom.com/article/get-variety-resources-covering-stimulus-package
Story idea: Unemployment numbers rising in rural America: http://ghnewsroom.com/article/story-idea-unemployment-numbers-rising-rural-america
SPREADING THE WORDS: For a variety of reasons, literary societies have gone the way of stock portfolios. But people in Jacksonville having been taking them seriously for a long time. By Steven Spearie (NOTE EMBARGO)
STATE BRIEFS: News from around the state. Will be posted this evening.
AL-MARRI: A federal grand jury has indicted Ali Saleh Kahlah al-Marri -- a former West Peoria man -- for allegedly conspiring with others to help the al Qaeda terrorist organization. By Andy Kravetz. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/features/x1362389470/Al-Marri-indicted-on-terrorism-related-charges
IDOT SECRETARY: Colleagues say they expect Gov. Pat Quinn will name longtime state Rep. Gary Hannig, D-Litchfield, to head the Illinois Department of Transportation. By Doug Finke. (WILL BE UPDATED) http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x1959829461/Breaking-news-Hannig-to-be-tapped-for-IDOT-post
HOSPITAL AID: As expected, Gov. Pat Quinn approves borrowing more than $500 million out of special state funds to provide aid to state hospitals. Colindres. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x617070872/Quinn-OKs-borrowing-500M-to-help-hospitals
GOVERNOR TRANSITION: Lawmakers are looking at changing state law to allow Gov. Pat Quinn to fold the duties and employees of his old lieutenant governor office into the governor's office because there is no lieutenant governor. By Naing. For Saturday.
GOVERNMENT REFORM: The second in the series covering state officials' efforts to clean up state government, this time focusing on disclosure of ethics violations by state employees and a possible Web site for state government information, including employee salaries. By Colindres. For the weekend. WITH BREAKOUT
STATEHOUSE INSIDER: By Doug Finke. For Sunday.
PLUGGED-IN LAWMAKERS: A new study shows more lawmakers are using technology to connect with voters. But GateHouse-area legislative results are mixed: some legislators take full advantage of the Internet and its offerings, while others are less e-savvy. By Andrew Thomason. (NOTE EMBARGO) http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x1362389452/Plugged-in-lawmakers-Study-shows-Illinois-pols-starting-to-embrace-technology
BRADY FOR GOV: State Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, who placed third in a primary for governor in 2006, is renewing his bid for the state's top office with a four-city fly-around planned for Monday. SJR. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x617070965/Bill-Brady-making-four-stops-to-announce-run-for-governor
DONKEY: Boone County seized eight horses, 10 goats, six donkeys, a sheep and a pair of cats in addition to the 103 dogs it took last year from a Capron property. Dixie, a donkey, was at greatest risk. But now she's doing well thanks to a woman who wanted to help the underdog, or as she says, "underdonkey." By Kevin Haas. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x594727762/Dixie-the-Donkey-gets-a-second-chance-at-life
BRITT: Topic TBA. Will be posted this evening.
ELIZABETH DAVIES: We need to teach kids good sense so they don't start sexting in the first place. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/lifestyle/family/x1362388903/Elizabeth-Davies-We-need-to-teach-kids-good-sense
-- NOTE: This is Davies' last column for a couple months – she's going on maternity leave.
WOOD ON WORDS: Yes, friends, we're all Americans. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/opinions/columnists/barry_wood/x1362389378/Wood-on-Words-Yes-friends-we-re-all-Americans
PHIL LUCIANO: All signs point to Blago being an evil genius. http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x617070834/Phil-Luciano-All-signs-point-to-Blago-being-an-evil-genius
BRIAN DENEAL: It began as a normal quiet night Tuesday, but then … http://www.gatehousenewsservice.com/regional_news/midwest/illinois/x1959829404/Brian-DeNeal-Quiet-night-then-BOOM
BACK ON TRACK (for Saturday): A four-man senior class felt good about getting Illinois basketball headed in the right direction. Now comes finishing the home season in style against league-leading Michigan State. By John Supinie. Moving this afternoon.
COACH ON THE FLOOR (for Sunday): Senior point guard Chester Frazier's playing style and desire to be a coach reminds Bruce Weber a little bit about himself. Serves as Illinois-Michigan State preview. With preview capsule. By John Supinie. Moving Saturday afternoon.
GAME STORY (for Monday): Illinois hosts Michigan State. Tipoff 3 p.m. Game story with quotes and report card moving by 7 p.m.
Note: Second story available from Peoria Journal Star columnist Bill Liesse.


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Mr. Speaker, as I just said in French, during the election campaign, we promised to bring real change to Parliament to make it more effective, open, and transparent. We made a specific commitment on how to achieve this. We have worked in good faith with the opposition, and we welcome a debate on the proposed changes in the coming days. Yesterday, I put a motion for the changes.
We have been working very well together. I knew we could. My door has always been open. It was good to see members come through that door so we could collaborate and work for Canadians.


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Their comments came at a meeting entitled "Global value chains and rules of origin: Opportunities and challenges for Cambodia", which was held in Geneva on 8 July.
The main topic of the meeting was the pending changes regarding rules of origin for exports to the European Union (EU) and Canada. Existing preferential trade rules have allowed Cambodia to enter new value chains and to diversify its export strategy from garments to higher-skill export products, especially bicycles.
In 1968, UNCTAD recommended the creation of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), under which industrialized countries would grant autonomous trade preferences to all developing countries.
The European Union's GSP scheme helps developing countries by making it easier for them to export their products to the EU. This is done in the form of reduced tariffs for their goods when entering the EU market. Through the additional export revenue that is generated, the scheme helps foster growth and job creation in developing countries.
Success with bicycle manufacturing was now creating additional opportunities for economic progress in Cambodia, panellists said, since the volume of bicycle production was now large enough to interest bicycle parts manufacturers. They went on to say that there was now an opportunity to establish an integrated bicycle industry in Cambodia.
However, the European Union and Canada are in the process of "graduating" countries from their GSP list, which offers favourable trade terms.
Graduation may have negative implications for Cambodia, panellists said, since inputs from the graduated countries, such as parts, will not be eligible for what is called "cumulation," thus breaking the established value chain pattern.
Cumulation is a practice - under rules of origin - that permits the use of inputs from other regional partners so that the inputs can be considered as domestic inputs. If the parts from regional partners cannot be counted as Cambodian parts, bicycle manufacturers will not be able to comply with the rules of origin and will have to pay a 14 per cent duty, instead of benefiting from duty-free status as they do at present.
The panel, which consisted of government and private-sector representatives, explored the impact that GSP graduation would have on Cambodia's trade benefits as a least developed country. And it discussed the challenges that Cambodia faces in dealing with these changes.
Possible trade policy options were reviewed, and the consequences for the bicycle manufacturing sector were highlighted - particularly the potential losses in employment, and the loss of opportunities to develop local skills.
The panel meeting was the result of UNCTAD's implementation of a technical cooperation project funded by the European Union and the World Bank.
UNCTAD is currently assisting the Government of Cambodia in complying with rules of origin requirements, and in developing trade policy options to address the country's current trade challenges.
The panellists were:
In 2012, it sold 465,616 bicycles.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
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ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last advisory on Javier. Surface observations and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 25 kt. The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it is likely to dissipate by Thursday. The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of initial motion is around 310/9 kt. The low is likely to continue moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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The Penn State Schuylkill Nittany Players announced their 2013 annual theatre production, "Willy Wonka."
This family-friendly musical will be held at 7 p.m. from April 11 to 14, in the John E. Morgan Auditorium at Penn State Schuylkill, and is open to the public. Matinee performance will take place at 2 p.m. on April 13 and 14. Tickets are $10 for adults, $8 for senior citizens and children under 18, and free for Penn State Schuylkill students (but must have a reserved ticket).
Tickets can be purchased by calling the Penn State Schuylkill box office at 570-385-6049 or in the Student Community Center lobby from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday through Friday.
Last Updated April 01, 2013


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Mplus Home
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Regressing outcomes on latent classes
Mplus Discussion
Latent Variable Mixture Modeling
Ben Chapman
posted on Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 2:15 pm
Hi--I just purchased Mplus, and after checking the manual and discussion board, it looks like one can't regress some distal outcome on a latent class variable using ON.
I'd like to use class membership in a three category latent class variable as a predictor of a distal outcome in the same way one would use two dummies in a regression (and include observed covariates also predicting the outcome). Yet I want to keep the observed class indicators separate from the distal outcome for substantive reasons, in the same way one would keep indicators in the measurement model of a continous LV different from a structural outcome regressed on the LV.
As I understand it, saving class probabilities and fitting a second regression model with dummy predictors representing class membership isn't optimal.
The DV is observed. Would specifying it as a continous LV permit this sort of analysis? What are the options here?
Thanks in advance.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 3:08 pm
This brings up two issues which may not always be well understood in mixture modeling.
First, modeling the influence of a latent class variable c on a distal outcome y is not done by saying y ON c, but what is done gives information equivalent to having used ON. As in dummy variable regression the influence of c on y implies that the means of y change over the classes of c. This is what Mplus accomplishes by either using the default where y is not mentioned in the model, or equivalently by mentioning the mean of y in each of the c classes. Same for a categorical y in which case the thresholds (probabilities) change over classes. - In other words, you get what you want out of Mplus without saying y on c.
Second, making an analogy outside mixture modeling, if you do SEM with a set of indicators of a factor f and want to specify that f influences a distal outcome y that can be done by saying
f BY indicators
y ON f
But that is statistically equivalent to saying
f BY indicators y
All the model says is that indicators are uncorrelated given (conditional on) f and that indicators are uncorrelated with y given f (all correlations go through f). And, because y is correlated with f, y data influences factor score estimation for f. You would not first estimate f using indicator information and then regress y on the estimated f scores. The same thing holds for the mixture situation.
So even if indicators are substantivelly different than the distal, the statistical modeling should be done using the Mplus default. The class formation obtained by analyzing only the indicators should not change substantially when adding the y information - it should only be better determined. If it does change, the classes are not well determined by the indicators alone.
Ben Chapman
posted on Monday, March 26, 2007 - 12:06 pm
Thanks, this is very helpful and I was able to parameterize the model I needed.
The situation of class membership changing when other "outcomes" are added (beyond the intended "indicators", acknowledging the possible artificiality of the distinction) is interesting. I understand that the "outcomes" convey additional information about class membership and are statistically equivalent to indicators. On the other hand, I'm working from a substantive theory which dictates a typology defined by the "indicators" only, and if the membership and nature of the classes (i.e., standing on the original indicators) changes when adding other outcomes, even if classes are better determined, this could get tricky to explain to reviewers who aren't used to seeing this sort of analysis.
I thought of extension analysis, projecting extension variables into an already defined factor space by fixing loadings of the original indicator variables while freely estimating the loadings of the extension variables. What do you think of fixing means of the latent class "indicators" at the values obtained from the "indicator only" LPA--could this stabalize class membership when "distal outcomes" are added?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, March 26, 2007 - 7:07 pm
Mplus lets you fix parameters in the model to the values from an analysis of the part that includes indicators only, estimating only the parameters related to the distal outcome in the different classes. In principle, you can even set individuals' class membership by using TRAINING data with the PROBABILITIES option, where those values are obtained from the CPROB option when analyzing the indicator part only.
Before attempting this, however, I would first do 2 analyses, (1) using only the indicator information, and (2) adding the distal information. A solid model for (1) should not change in any important way when doing (2), so this is a good check of the replicability of (1).
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Friday, June 01, 2007 - 12:00 pm
I believe I have a similar type of question. I am interested in looking at the effects of a latent class variable on treatment outcome. I only have data at baseline (t1) and end of tx (t2), so I can't look at this in a growth model. The latent class variable (c) has 14 indicators. I have two issues that I would appreciate advice on handeling. 1) the t2 outcomes are repeated measures of several of the t1 variables 2) most of the t2 outcomes are zero-inflated (about 80% were free of certain symptoms).
Because I'm ultimately interested in whether c has any predictive clinical validity on certain outcomes (8 of the original 14 indicators) I'm unsure what my modeling options are here. Following the logic above, these t2 outcomes should be included in the estimation of c, although I am unsure how to handle the zero-inflated nature of several of these variables in such a model.
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Monday, June 04, 2007 - 10:57 am
It sounds like you might want to consider a latent transition model where the inflation can be taken care of by a class where individuals do not have symptoms.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 4:17 pm
Thanks for the advice, I like this idea. If I use a LTA approach, conceptually, should the t2 (c) variable look similar to the t1 (c) variable in terms of number of classes, particularly if I am only interested in 8 of the original 14 indicators at outcome? This may be hard to find if the response rate to treatment is about 80% because there are so few (relative to baseline)subjects who would fall outside of the zero class. However, my zero-class conceptually is a good fit for a categorical representation of "tx responder". Although I also wonder if say I get a 2-class (c) at t2, if that means my (c) (currently a 4-class variable) is not a reliable variable.
A follow-up question. A colleague here recomended that for simplicity I just use a Piossion Zero-Inflated regression model to look at the effect of (c) on these zero-inflated outcomes. However, this seems inconsistent with what Bengt described in his post on March 24, 2007 above. Am I correct here?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, June 06, 2007 - 7:50 am
If you have different more latent class indicators at time one versus time two, you may have a different number of classes.
You could have two categorical latent class variables and regress c2 on c1 or you could have one latent class variable and regress outcomes at time 2 on c1. I don't see the contradiction you refer to.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Wednesday, June 06, 2007 - 7:13 pm
Thanks again Linda,
I actually think I confused myself in reading Bengt's post. I realized that the original question wasn't the same situation that I'm interested in modeling.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Monday, June 18, 2007 - 8:22 pm
I have a couple of follow up questions now that I have started anlyzing the data I discussed (June 5 above).
1. Is it possible to regress a categorial latent variable onto a zero-inflated latent variable?
2. In a typical zero-Inflated model (ex.7.2 Users Manual)
a) how do you interpret the threshold parameters in the output when your covariates are categoriacal?
b) If one of my categorical covariates is Tx condition and has 3 levels, how should I interpret the regression coefficient predicting u or u#1?
c) Am I correct to interpret the u#1 regressed on covariates to mean the prediction of zero?
Thanks in advance!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, June 19, 2007 - 6:15 pm
1. Yes and no. Let the inflation variable be u#1 in the standard Mplus notation, where u#1 is the latent binary variable. Mplus will not let you say
cd#1 on u#1;
where cd is the latent class variable that you predict.
(Mplus only lets u#1 be a dependent variable, such as in UG ex8.5).
But you can use the explicit two-class approach to ZIP, where u#1 is instead represented as a latent class variable. See UG ex 7.25 where c is the same as u#1. Having formulated your ZIP model this way, Mplus lets you say
cd#1 on c#1;
Note, however, that the latent binary inflation variable is in my experience not very stable, but will change across somewhat different model specifications, so this type of regression is a bit "far out".
2.a) There are no thresholds - that language is reserved for categorical outcomes. Instead you have intercepts. This is explained in the text of UG ex 7.2 and also in ex3.8. See also text books for ZIP, such as Long's book.
2b) With 3 levels for a covariate, you have to create 2 dummy variables as usual in regression analysis.
2c) Yes
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Wednesday, June 20, 2007 - 12:03 pm
Thanks Bengt,
This is very helpful. It sounds as though you believe the ZIP model I suggested is potentially unreliable. Do you have any thoughts on an alternative approach.? I was also considering using a LTA model although my t2 timepoint will have a zero-class that's not present at t1.
I will also definately seek out Long's book.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, June 20, 2007 - 6:05 pm
I'm unclear on the model you are working with. Are you considering an LTA for time 1, and wanting to see how the time 1 latent class variable influences the time 2 outcomes?
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Friday, June 22, 2007 - 11:22 am
I'm sorry for the confusion. I described the model in my June 1 post. Briefly, I'm interested in whether latent class at t1 (14 indicators) is predictive of a range of outcomes at t2 (8 indictors). 3 of the outcomes are zero inflated with Poission distributions at t2, but not t1. t1 is pretreatment and t2 is post treatment. I was potentially thinking of using an LTA to look at transition from t1 class to t2 class, but because of the zero inflation, I figured I would need a zero class at t2.
Essentially, I'm interested in whether a specific subtyping approach has any predictive clinical utility.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 8:47 am
I think the LTA approach is the way to go. So you specify an LCA measurement model at each of the two time points, defining the latent class variables c1 and c2. You don't have to have the same number of classes at the two time points. For the classes that are the same, you probably want to specify measurement invariance across time.
If you don't choose to use LTA, and don't have a latent class measurement model for time 2, you can still regress time 2 count variables on the time 1 latent class variable. You don't use the construction "u2 on c1", but you let u2 parameters vary as a function of c1 classes.
I hope I understand what you are interested in. Let me know if not.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 10:31 am
If you don't have a latent class variable c2 at time point 2 (as in LTA), the u2 items will be taken as conditionally independent given c1, which may not be what you want. Having c2, this is relaxed to conditional independence given c2.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 8:33 pm
I think you've convinced me. I will stick with the LTA model, in part, because of the conditional independence issue that you described.
If am also interested in tx (3 conditions) as a predictor of the t1-->t2 transition (particularly to the zero class), should I use a multiple group model or treat tx as a covariate? Do you have a preference based on your experience? I already know that there is no difference between tx at outcome (58%,61%, 59% symptom free at outcome), but I am also interested if c1 interacts with treatment, so I will also be testing a moderator model.
Thanks again for your advice!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Sunday, June 24, 2007 - 11:54 am
tx as a predictor of the transition is best modeled using tx as Knownclass, so that "c2 on c1" can vary across these tx classes. If you email me I can send you Mplus input for this LTA analysis.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Thursday, July 19, 2007 - 6:18 am
I've been trying to run the LTA model described above building from the example that you sent me. I have a 4 class solution at t1 and 2 class solution at t2. As I mentioned, I'm interested in whether tx (3 conditions) moderates the transition from 4-classes to the final 2 classes.
I have 2 quick questions.
In your LTA example you used the following for your overall model:
c2#1 ON c1#
cg#1 (p0);
[c2#1] (p1);
If my c1 variable has 4 classes and cg variable has 3 classes, how would a specify this? Do I have to specify a seperate regression for each c2 class fixed at zero(except the reference group) on c2#1? Similarly for cg#1 & cg#2?
c2#1 ON c1#
cg#1 (p0)
c2#1 ON c1#
cg#2 (p1)
[c2#1] (p1);
My second question is related to the differences in class numbers at t1 & t2. Because of the high tx response, I have a tx repsonse (zero class) and non responder group at outcome. Although the indicators at t2 are repeated measures of t1, I'm not sure how to use constraints to model conditional independence. Any suggestions on this?
Thanks again for your help
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, July 19, 2007 - 9:59 am
You don't need to repeat the fixed parameters in the second line. I think you want a different label for [c2#1].
c2#1 ON c1#
cg#1 (p0)
c2#2 ON cg#2 (p1)
[c2#1] (p2);
I'm not clear on what you mean by using constraints to model conditional independence.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Thursday, July 19, 2007 - 12:04 pm
Thank you for your answer to question 1 above and sorry about the confusion for question 2. What I was trying to understand is how to account for the repeated measures aspect of the model (for indicators of the c variables). Bengt suggested that I would constrain parameters to be invariant accross classes that are the same at t1 & t2. However, I don't know that either of the classes at t2 are the same as any of the 4 classes at t1. In this case, would I not worry about invariance?
Is that more clear? Sorry again for the confusion.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, July 19, 2007 - 12:14 pm
If you don't want to impose measurement invariance across time, you just don't include the (1-4) and (5-8) type of parameter constraints shown in UG ex8.13.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Wednesday, July 25, 2007 - 6:02 pm
Thank your for the advice. I think I have my LTA model set. I was wondering if it typically took a long time to converge (e.g 6 hrs in a practice attempt). I have had some inconsistency with the t1 LCA model, particularly with replicating the best LogLikelihood value, even with increased starts = 150 20.
My second question is for calculating the probabilities. If I have 3 types of treatment and a 4-class t1 variable (conceptualized as diagnostic categories) and 2-class t2 variable (tx response vs. nonresponse), I believe I would be calculating the probabilites for 24 cells (8 per tx). What would the calculation of tx effects look like in this model with 3 txs.
For example, if I wanted to calculate the effect of tx on class 1 (t1) moving to the non-repsonder class 2 (t2).
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, July 26, 2007 - 8:39 am
LTA with 2 time points usually doesn't take that long. I would make sure as a first step that you get a T1 LCA model with many replicat loglikelihoods - if you can't replicate the LLs you probably have too many classes.
The probabilities for the 24 cells are given in the Mplus output. They are computed as shown in Chapter 13 of the UG.
I have a setup showing how to use the Mplus Model constraint feature to compute such tx effects on the probabilities that I can send you if you send me an email.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Saturday, September 15, 2007 - 10:59 am
In a LTA model that assess for the effects of treatment (I have 24 potential cells 4 class x 3 treatmetns x 2 classes), I have run into estimation problems because of certain cells that have no estimated members (i.e., class1 in treatment 2 transitioning to symptom remission. My 4 class solution at t1 and 2 class at t2 appear to be replicable and good fits theoretically and statistically. Any thoughts on how to handle this low probability transitions?
Thanks in advance.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 4:36 am
Low probability cells are not a problem in general. However, you cannot estimate treatement effects in these. You should fix the treatment effects to zero for those cells.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 12:11 pm
Just to make sure that I am doing this correctly, I would set parameters under the knownclass portion of the model to zero where I knew that there was no transition. For instance, knowing that no participants in c1#1 transition to c2#1 within cg#1 would be specified as follows:
Model cg:
c2#1 ON c1#
This also means that everyone in c1#1 transitions to c2#2 within cg#1, so would I fix that parameter as well or does fixing the first parameter take care of estimating the second parameter?
Thanks again for your thoughts?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 20, 2007 - 10:50 am
Here are a couple of comments. You mentioned in your Sept 15 message that you ran into estimation problems. We took that to mean that intervention effects couldn't be identified in some cells due to zero counts. But you are now mentioning zero transition probabilities which should be handled automatically in Mplus by Mplus fixing large/small logits. So it is unclear what the problem is. Also, Chapter 13 of the User's Guide describes how "a" and "b" logit parameters combine to form logits and therefore transition probabilities.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 20, 2007 - 10:51 am
P.S. Regarding fixing transition probabilitioes to zero, see also the Kaplan LTA paper on our web site.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Monday, September 24, 2007 - 5:39 am
thank you for the advice, the Kaplan paper is very helpful. I think I have 2 problems as I've mentioned.
1) I have cells with low counts when I add the treatment variable. When I estimate the standard LTA without covariates I don't have any estimation problems and the low counts don't seem to be a problem.
2) Theoretically, 2 (of 4) of the classes at time 1 would have a 100% probability of transitioning to class 1 at time 2, regardless of which treatment (CG1-CG3). My Sept 15 post was double checking on the correct way to fix these cells.
3) I think I've run into a related problem and that is how to deal with the latent variable indicators for low count cells (particularly low probability indicators). Is there a way to fix these parameters for individual cells?
Thanks again for your help!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, September 24, 2007 - 6:21 pm
Given what you say in 1), I would suggest analyzing the time point 2 outcomes by themselves in an LCA that included the treatment variable. If this creates problems that you don't see when the treatment variable is not included, I would think about why.
Regarding 3), the latent variable indicator probabilities for a certain time point should vary only across the latent class categories for the latent class variable of that time point - this is in line with regular LTA. Mplus automatically fixes probabilities to 1 or 0 (actually corresponding logits); are you saying this fixing doesn't happen? If so, you can do it yourself using the large values printed. Again, if this happens only in the LTA and not in the time-specific LCAs, I would think about why.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 7:49 am
I did some further investigation as you suggested. Adding the tx variable to the t2 LCA model did not cause any problems and the results made sense based on my previous attempts with the unconditional LTA and original t2 LCA. For the sake of exploration, I also reran the t1 LCA model with tx as a covariate... this led to estimation problems, which suggests to me that the problem in the conditional LTA model is likely to occur in the relationship between tx and latent class probabilities for t1.
But then, I figured that the tx variable isn't specified as a covariate for the estimation of t1 latent variable in the conditional LTA, so this shouldn't be a problem... correct?
I was also wondering if I should be constraining the means/thresholds for t1 LCA classes to be invariant across treatments...
Thanks again for all of your help.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 8:03 am
The tx covariate should not be allowed to influence the t1 outcomes - isn't t1 pre intervention?
I believe I sent an example of the input for LTA in a treatment-control setting. This works with 3 model statements:
Model c1:
Model c2:
Model cg:
where the first two are for the latent class variable at the 2 time points and the third is for the treatment-control latent class variable (KNOWNCLASS). This setup produces invariant measurement parameters across the two cg classes - for both t1 and t2 outcomes.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 1:06 pm
The t1 is pre-treatment but represents diagnostic group. t2 uses many of the same indicators, but not all of them and is more limited to a tx response variable.
In the example that you sent me, you set the t1 and t2 classes to have invariant threshold paramenters across indicators within class. I have a slightly different problem since my t1 and t2 variables are different so I freed these parameters. Would this cause estimation problems in the conditional LTA that are absent in the unconditional LTA?
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 6:34 pm
I think I have it figured out, but I would love to have your input on why this is the case.
I constrained the relevant parameters from my first t1 diagnostic group (which had low symptom presentation)to be equal to the corresponding t2 parameters in my non-response group. This cut the estimation time from 6-8 hrs to about 1:30 hrs with STARTS 120 20; The results make sense theoretically and I didn't get any warnings.
Why would making equating these 2 classes make such a difference?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 27, 2007 - 9:38 am
Here are answers to your two recent posts. Because your items and latent classes are different at the two time points (which I had forgotten), I would not hold them equal across time. At most, I would hold equal across time measurement parameters that are for the same items coupled with latent classes that are interpreted the same across time - but that too is iffy. Measurement equality or not should not in principle influence estimation problems.
If you think that tx should influence the time 1 part of the model, I would first investigate why adding tx to the time 1 LCA creates a problem.
The setup I sent did not let tx influence the time 1 part of the model.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Thursday, September 27, 2007 - 3:33 pm
I think I can rationalize the link between the two classes, i.e. equating diagnostic group 1 and tx non-reponder at time 2 (at least for indicators that are the same), but I will continue to investigate the problem with the tx varible and time 1 LCA.
The problem as you mentioned though, is that tx was randomly assigned after the baseline data was collected so the influence of tx-->c1 or c1--> seems hard to rationalize.
Would the coding for the tx variable make a difference in estimation? For instance, should tx's be coded as 0, 1, 2 or should contrast coding be used as when investigating categorical moderators?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, September 27, 2007 - 3:44 pm
I don't think coding of the tx variable makes a difference. The input I sent showed tx translated into latent classes, so here coding is bypassed. I don't know what you mean by
c1--> seems hard to rationalize.
c1 points to c2, doesn't it, and that would seem essential.
Tom Hildebrandt
posted on Thursday, September 27, 2007 - 9:01 pm
Sorry for the confusion.
I left out a word. I think it's hard to rationalize
tx-->c1 since tx was randomly assigned
c1-->tx for the same reason...
Looking at these relationships and potential problems with model estimation, c1#1 seems to have an empty cell (no individuals in tx = 1 who are also in c1#1. A similar problem with c1#3 with tx = 2. I investigated this using posterior classification because there are estimation problems when I use the tx variable in the model of t1 LCA (e.g., as a covariate) and I get a different array of classes, with c1#3 having very few members (less 5%). This is not the case when the model is estimated without the tx variable.
Any thoughts?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Friday, September 28, 2007 - 11:36 am
I have no further thoughts on this other than the observation that if random assignment took place after t1 there should be no significant tx-->c1, but your reporting seems to say that this relationship is strong: "no individuals in tx = 1 who are also in c1#1". If I am understanding this correctly, this finding suggests that the randomization broke down.
christine meng
posted on Friday, June 08, 2012 - 11:59 pm
I am using GMM to model negative parenting. I would like to use the parenting class membership to predict children's academic achievement (a continuous variable). I am having a hard time getting the right syntax equivalent to y on c (y = academic achievement; c = class membership). Please point me to the right direction. Thanks.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Saturday, June 09, 2012 - 6:53 am
This is seen in the means of academic achievement varying over classes. Just include academic achievement on the USEVARIABLES list.
Kei Miyazaki
posted on Tuesday, August 21, 2018 - 11:59 am
Dear Dr.s Muthen,
Referring ex7.2.inp code, I'm doing a mixture analysis for a count variable using a zero-inflated poisson model. I'd like to make the model in which the estimates (means) of inflation variable differ depending on latent classes. Can M-plus do this analysis ?
The following is my unfinished code. The number of the dependent variables that follow ZIP distributions is 10. There are 2 explanatory variables for latent class indicator.
TITLE: latent class ZIP model
DATA: FILE IS pr_ZIP.dat;
VARIABLE: NAMES ARE y1-y10 x1 x2;
CLASSES = c (2);
COUNT = y1-y10(i);
c ON x1 x2;
In the above code, however, I get the results in which the estimates (means) of inflation variables are common among latent classes.
Thanks in advance.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, August 21, 2018 - 6:01 pm
Yes, this can be done. Mention the inflation parameters in each class.
posted on Friday, August 16, 2019 - 8:25 am
Dear dr Muthen,
I'm having some trouble to understand the meaning of the different possibilities of adding covariates when predicting outcomes with LPA in Mplus.
If I want to predict satisfaction with my classes and I want to eliminate the influence that age might have.
do I add age as a covariate for the latent classes or do I add the regression of satisfaction on age?
So I want to make sure it is the profile membership that predicts satisfaction, regardless of their age.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Sunday, August 18, 2019 - 4:31 pm
Sounds like you should control for age when predicting satisfaction, so regress satisfaction on age. The intercept of satisfaction will vary across the latent classes and that will be what you should be interested in. I would also check if age predicts your latent class variable.
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The Top 10 CBB Stories Of 2012: Wrapping Up Our ListPosted by Chris Johnson on December 31st, 2012
Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.
The turning of the calendar to a new year provides an occasion to stop and reflect on the highlights and lowlights from the year that was. Over the last five days, we've fed out a steady stream of 2012's biggest college hoops stories. Some of them are fond memories that will forever ingrain themselves in the sport's fabric in a totally positive way. Others were less cheerful tales in passing. All of them bore the common thread of being memorable, and to wrap up our countdown, here's a layout of the 10 that stood out most.
- 10. It won't be until next season that Jabari Parker sets foot on Duke's campus, but he's already a household name amongst college hoops fans thanks to one of the most high-profile recruitments in years, and his decision to commit to the Blue Devils represents a direct threat on Kentucky's and other contenders' 2013-14 national title hopes.
- 9. The days of college basketball's opening day being tucked away under the fall football hysteria are dwindling. With patriotic fixtures like this year's Ramstein Air Force Base game, and innovative event planners like Michigan State AD Mark Hollis, the start non-conference season feels more than ever like a well-defined commencement.
- 8. The rebirth of Indiana basketball was an eventuality, and the proud program finally returned to its historic heights in 2012 thanks to coach Tom Crean, talented big man Cody Zeller and one of the deepest and most versatile rotations in the country.
- 7. Railing on NCAA enforcement procedure has become the most popular and most frequent go-to media critique out there. Shabazz Muhammad's slow and obscure eligibility clearance gave columnists endless ammo to tee off on the organization's protocol.
- 6. Some are reluctant to put Jim Boeheim among the sport's all-time great coaches based on a shortage of postseason accomplishments. A fair gripe, sure, but you can't quibble with the man's historic consistency – Boeheim reached 900 wins when his then-No. 3 Syracuse team beat Detroit on December 17.
- 5. People will remember him for different reasons – boundless basketball knowledge, self-damaging personal habits, verbal and physical abuse of players – but there's one thing we can all agree on with Rick Majerus: he was one of his own kind.
- 4. When Jim Calhoun made his retirement official in September, it was no shock he left without giving AD Warde Manuel much of a chance to conduct a thorough job search. Calhoun bolted on his own terms, because, well, that's the imperative Calhoun we know, the one who built UConn basketball from a Yankee Conference afterthought into a national powerhouse.
- 3. The chances we see two #15-seeds win their round-of-64 matchups on the same day again are meager. Odds are that the long-awaited 16-1 upset will happen before another Kyle O'Quinn and CJ McCollum team up to cause bracket-shredding chaos in office pools across the country.
- 2. The verbal takedowns of John Calipari's MO at Kentucky – recruit the nation's best freshmen, glue together championship contenders contender, churn out NBA Draft picks, turn the roster over and do it all again the next year – would stick with the Wildcats' coach until his patented formula produced a national champion. Sure enough, coach Cal got his wish in 2012.
- 1. It wasn't a shock when the Big East finally burst at the seams. The conference's implosion was a long time coming, and for the first time in this new shifting college athletics landscape, basketball ruled the day. The Catholic 7 were long since fed up with their football partners, and they'll forward to a new league – after adding up to five other basketball-only schools – without them.
Happy New Year and here's to looking forward to a great 2013!