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GC safe points are apparently regarded as a tricky subject by many people. Jones says that approaches to safe points may be classified into (effectively) eager and lazy preparation. He goes on to say that thread suspension complicates matters by interrupting the thread at uncontrolled points and mentions probabilistic advancement to the next safe point. Attention is given to the problem of devising stack maps expressive enough to convey locally-held references. Even the idea of compressing stack maps to save space is covered. Self-modifying code or "patching" as an alternative to polling is mentioned. The section describing where GC check points can go is particularly interesting:
"Beyond the minimal points needed for correctness, a system may wish to allow garbage collection at more locations so as to guarantee that garbage collection can proceed without an unbounded wait for the thread to reach its next safe point. To make this stronger guarantee there needs to be a safe point in each loop; a simple rule is to place a safe point at each backwards branch in a function. In addition, there needs to be a safe point in each function entry or each return since otherwise functions, especially recursive ones, could perform many calls and returns before encountering a safe point."
What Jones et al. do not mention is that all of these problems can be solved far more simply without sacrificing much efficiency. HLVM did this.
Positioning GC-safe pointsHow does HLVM choose where to put GC-safe points? First, it is critical to note that HLVM provides functions with guaranteed elimination of all function calls in tail position but does not provide any looping constructs, i.e. all loops are expressed as tail recursion. As a consequence of this unusually-simple intermediate representation, HLVM gets away with placing a single GC safe point in each function at its entry point.
Why the entry point and not the return point? Because tail call elimination can require multiple return points but there is only ever one entry point so choosing to instrument entry points rather than return points avoids unnecessary code duplication.
So HLVM-generated code is guaranteed to perform GC checks periodically and, therefore, will always respond to requests from the GC in a timely fashion. Given the requirement that each function must contain at least one GC check point in order to be correct, HLVM is optimal because it uses only one GC-safe point in each function. However, HLVM has admittedly shifted the goal posts by replacing loops with functions, i.e. HLVM code has more and smaller functions than other languages or VMs.
Blocking and external calls are instrumented in order to temporarily fake suspension, allowing the GC to continue without requiring cooperation from an uncooperative thread. For example, this is essential for user code to acquire locks because the call blocks until the lock is free and would otherwise prevent the GC from running at all even though it is perfectly safe to do so. Concretely, this boils down to a write of the thread's state before the call and a spinwait until the GC cycle (if any) completes after the call.
Novel optimizationsThe first optimization HLVM performs in the context of GC-safe points is to amortize the costly GC check point at the entry point of each function. Each GC check point increments a thread-local counter and the expensive check of the synchronized global is done only when the counter reaches a predetermined level whereupon it is reset. Furthermore, accessing thread local data via the OS is slow so HLVM carries a pointer to the thread local data (including that counter and the shadow stack) through every function call, i.e. a global change to the calling convention.
The second optimization also appears to be a valuable new technique. Loop unrolling is a productive optimization seen in most language and VM implementations. As there are no loops in HLVM, it performs a similar transformation by inlining function bodies into a function's (self) recursive calls. This is actually a more powerful alternative to loop unrolling because it affects non-tail calls as well as the tail calls that are equivalent to loops. Moreover, this amortizes the cost of the GC safe points to the point that they are almost free and the performance of a single-threaded run-time is recovered. In practice, this can make tight non-tail recursive functions like Fibonacci and Ackermann several times faster.
Progressing a suspended thread to its next safe pointHow does HLVM advance a suspended thread to its next safe point? HLVM threads cooperatively suspend themselves when necessary and can only do so at a GC check point. Concretely, the GC signals to all threads via a mutable global when it wants them to cooperatively suspend themselves. The next time each thread passes a check point that causes this global variable to be checked the thread will cooperatively suspend itself, signal to the GC that it is suspended and then sits in a loop waiting for the GC to signal back that the GC cycle has completed. This is just a few lines of code and, as our benchmarks have shown, is very efficient.
Stack mapsLocating pointers is also notoriously difficult. Once a thread has been suspended pending a GC cycle the GC must be able to locate all of the pointers on the thread's stack because they are global roots. According to Jones et al., there are a multitude of complicated techniques for doing this. The techniques generally revolve around the concept of stack maps, a data structure that locates the pointers in the stack frame of a given function that has been suspended at a given point. Due to the large number of combinations of functions and suspension points there can be a huge number of stack maps and this is when other people started to discuss compressing them.
How does HLVM find locally-held pointers? Again, HLVM adopted a much simpler solution that appears to be just as efficient. Specifically, HLVM uses a stack of pointers. When a reference is held locally it is pushed onto this shadow stack. At every return point (including tail calls) the shadow stack pointer is reset to the value it had upon entry to the function. So HLVM does not have to mess around with pointers to stack frames or stack maps to describe their layout.
HLVM currently pushes locally-held references onto the shadow stack eagerly. In the future, this could be optimized by pushing just before a function call and pushing only those values that are still required to be live after the call returns. The performance benefit is likely to be small but this would reduce the scope of references on the shadow stack and, therefore, reduce the amount of floating garbage.
Perhaps the most beneficial optimization yet to be applied will be to avoid pushing and popping the reference to an array during its iteration. Currently, arrays are iterated by tail-recursive functions that pass the reference to the array back to themselves and, consequently, push the reference upon entry and pop it before tail recursing. An interesting solution would be to augment the core type system (currently value and reference types) with a third class of types representing references that a caller has already made reachable to the GC. In its simplest form this means that only the function that initially acquires a reference (by allocation or reading a pointer from the heap) pushes it onto the shadow stack and it then passes its callees the "prepushed" form of the same reference so they do not push the same value again. A more sophisticated solution could infer that references derived via immutable types from prepushed references are also prepushed references. For example, there is no need to push every element of an immutable list once the head has been pushed because we know the GC will already traverse the entire list. As our benchmarks indicate that shadow stack manipulations can account for up to 70% of the total running time of a program, such approaches might dramatically improve performance.
Heap allocation and barriersHLVM also used a very simple approach to heap allocation that allows it to operate without any read or write barriers. Unlike the novel techniques described above, this aspect of HLVM's design is known to have severely degraded performance. This approach may still be of interest due to its simplicity though.
HLVM allocates memory by calling malloc from the C standard libary and its GCs releases memory by calling free. As the GC is a simple non-moving mark-sweep collector there is no need to track cross-partition pointer writes so there is no write barrier. This actually gives HLVM a significant performance advantage when writing pointers because write barriers in production VMs like the CLR and OCaml are many times slower than a direct pointer write.
One surprising result observed during the creation of HLVM was the performance of maintaining the mark bits for each heap block in a hash table vs in the heap block itself. Surprisingly, the hash table was only slightly slower than the more invasive solution.


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Brett Conrad and the Crimson opens the year at Massachusetts Aug. 31 (Gil Talbot).
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – The Harvard men's soccer team will travel west to California for two contests and will host seven home games during the 2012 season, the third under Carl Junot, the Virginia B. and James O. Welch '52 Head Coach for Harvard Men's Soccer.
The Crimson will also play six teams that reached the 2011 NCAA tournament, including Southern Methodist, Connecticut, UC Santa Barbara, Boston College, Brown and Dartmouth.
Harvard will open the 2012 campaign on the road for two games, visiting Massachusetts Aug. 31 and Northeastern Sept. 2. The Crimson welcomes Michigan State Sept. 7 and SMU Sept. 9, in games that will be held at the Soldiers Field Soccer Stadium, before hosting UConn at Ohiri Field Sept. 14.
Following a road trip to California that will see the Crimson face California Poly Sept. 21 and UC Santa Barbara Sept. 23, Harvard will return to Cambridge to play Yale in the Ivy League opener Sept. 29. The Crimson will step back into non-conference action at home against Boston College Oct. 2, before hosting Cornell Oct. 6 to close out a three-game homestand.
Harvard then begins a stretch of five straight road contests by visiting Brown Oct. 13, before playing at local rival Boston University Oct. 16. The Crimson remains away from home to face Princeton Oct. 20, Dartmouth Oct. 27 and Holy Cross Oct. 30, before returning home for Senior Day against Columbia Nov. 2.
The Crimson will conclude the regular season on the road at Penn Nov. 10.

subset: commoncrawl


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Instead, I got apple pie. Mrs. Bashcraft, my wife, made apple pie for the kids and me. This is it!
Actually, this isn't mine. While the kids got their apple pie in nice little bags, I got mine in a Ziploc bag. Apparently, we are out of nice little bags, but have tons of Ziploc bags.
(Mental note: get more nice little bags.)
Shame I didn't get any itachoco or virtual chocolate from the Love Plus girls. Oh well!
This was pretty much Valentine's Day here for us! I didn't get any giri-choco (obligatory chocolate) this year. Though, I usually get giri-choco from my mother-in-law around V-Day. I always return the favor with chocolate on White Day in March, so hopefully it's not really "giri", but that my mother-in-law actually likes me as a son-in-law. Heh.
The problem with getting home made sweets for Valentine's Day is that there is pressure to do likewise. Not sure what I should make for White Day...
Postcard is a daily peek behind the Kotaku East curtain, whether that be game-related or not.


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Based on success in animal trials, a number of labs are intensively pursuing techniques for removing virus-sensing human helper T cells, stimulating them, and reintroducing them to reinvigorate their exhausted virus-killing henchmen.
Chronic viral infections eventually take hold because they wear the immune system out, a phenomenon immunologists describe as exhaustion.
But exhausted immune cells can be revived after the introduction of fresh cells that act like coaches giving a pep talk, researchers at Emory University's Vaccine Center have found.
Their findings provide support for an emerging strategy for treating chronic infections: Infusing immune cells back into patients after a period of conditioning.
The results were published Dec 12 by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ("Antigen-specific CD4 T-cell help rescues exhausted CD8 T cells during chronic viral infection.")
The team, led by Drs. Rafi Ahmed (director of Emory's Vaccine Center) and Rachael Aubert (Emory's Immunology and Molecular Pathogenesis program) have extensive experience studying mice infected with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV). Immune responses against LCMV are driven by CD8 or "killer" T cells, which destroy virus-infected cells in the body.
[As William Collinge describes them in his plain language overview of the immune system, CD8 T killer cells are like satellite dishes that have receptors on their surface for receiving signals from CD4 T helper cells (watchdog cells that sense the presence of invaders and send out APBs on them). The CD8 T killer cells then home in on the unwanted infected cells and inject poison into them.]
But a few weeks after exposure to LCMV, the mice develop a chronic infection that their immune systems cannot shake off, similar to when humans are infected by viruses like HIV and hepatitis C.
The team examined what happened to mice chronically infected with LCMV when they infused CD4 helper T cells from uninfected mice.
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After the infusion, the CD8 cells in the infected mice revived and the levels of virus in their bodies decreased by a factor of four after a month.
Like coaches encouraging a tired athlete, the helper cells drove the killer cells that were already in the infected mice to emerge from exhaustion and re-engage.
The cell-based treatment was especially effective when combined with an antibody that blocks the molecule PD-1, which appears on exhausted T cells and inhibits their functioning.
Ten-Fold Reduction in Virus, Sometimes to Undetectable Levels
The antibody against PD-1 helps the exhausted killer T cells to revive, and enhances the function of the helper T cells as well: The combination reduced viral levels by roughly ten-fold, and made the virus undetectable in some mice.
"We have not seen this sharp a reduction in viral levels in this system before," says co-author Alice Kamphorst. The helper cells were all genetically engineered to recognize LCMV, a difference between mouse experiments and potential clinical application, she explains. But it may be possible to remove helper T cells from a human patient and stimulate them so that all the cells that recognize a given virus grow.
"This is an active area of research and several laboratories are looking at how best to stimulate T cells and re-introduce them," she says. In addition, she and her co-workers are examining what types of hormones or signaling molecules the helper cells provide to the killer cells. That way, that molecule could be provided directly, instead of by cell therapy, she says.
The molecule PD-1 was previously identified by Ahmed and colleagues as a target for therapy designed to re-activate exhausted immune cells. Antibodies against PD-1 have been undergoing tests in clinical studies against hepatitis C and several forms of cancer.
Collaborators from Harvard Medical School/Dana Farber Cancer Institute contributed to the paper. The research was supported by the National Institutes of Health and the Cancer Research Institute.
Source: Based on Emory University news release Dec 13, 2011


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STEVEN ADLER's Mother To Release Long-Awaited Tell-All Book In April
According to a recent tweet from original GUNS N' ROSES drummer Steven Adler, his mother, Deanna Adler, has signed a deal for her long-awaited tell-all book, "Sweet Child Of Mine: How I Lost My Son to Guns N' Roses" (formerly "No Bed Of Roses"). The book, which was previously expected to arrive late last year via HarperCollins, is now due in April.
In the bestselling tradition of "Come Back" and "Augusta, Gone", comes her story of heartache and strength as Deanna Adler stood by her son at his most troubled times.
During the last quarter century, Deanna Adler kept her diaries, journals, and personal letters, as well as a dozen scrapbooks and hundreds of photographs, putting them aside for safekeeping. "Sweet Child Of Mine" is her stunning book about raising her son, Steven Adler, the drummer for GUNS N' ROSES, and the travails of keeping him alive and herself sane.
Deanna's son has had a turbulent life in GUNS N' ROSES and afterward; he struggled with drug addiction, financial ruin after being kicked out of GUNS N' ROSES, and health problems that almost claimed his life several times — two heart attacks, a suicide attempt, and a debilitating stroke. Now, he appears to have finally beaten his epic twenty-year addiction to crack and heroin. But through it all, his mother was by his side. Deanna offers a window into the world of rock'n'roll and addiction while at the same time providing deep insights into her son's tortured years.
These are the memoirs of a mother's love for an infamous son whose phenomenal success is only surpassed by his astounding capacity for self destruction. Her pages are filled with moments of profound joy and crippling heartbreak. "Sweet Child Of Mine" will inform and inspire others to find the strength to help their loved ones.
La Voce, the voice of the Las Vegas' Italian-American community, last year spoke to Deanna Adler about her upcoming book. The chat can be streamed in two parts below.
Interview – Part 1 (audio):
Interview – Part 2 (audio):
Deanna Adler appeared on the second season of "Celebrity Rehab With Dr. Drew", on which Steven was a cast member. During the season's episode five, Dr. Drew, Dr. Sophy and Steven sat down for a meeting with Deanna in a what was described as "a tense whirlwind of accusations, denials and resentment. Steven is so flustered that he storms out of the room, leaving the many issues between he and Deanna unresolved, possibly forever."
You can see Deanna Adler's appearance on "Celebrity Rehab" at this location. (Deanna Adler first appears around the 19-minute mark.)
Having been kicked out of his mother's house on numerous occasions before he was old enough to vote, Steven Adler reportedly started skipping school and doing drugs when he was 11.
Steven Adler was the drummer for GUNS N' ROSES from 1985 to 1990. He was eventually fired from the band due to his drug addiction, which caused him to spiral down into depression and more drug use.
Steven Adler's autobiography, "My Appetite for Destruction: Sex, and Drugs, and Guns N' Roses", came out in July 2010. In the book, Adler tells all, fearlessly addressing his struggles with heroin and crack addiction; his financial ruin after being kicked out of GN'R; his shattered marriage; and the severe health problems that nearly claimed his life on several occasions.


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In the sixth part of a series of look-aheads at Colorado's 2010 season, broken down by units, we look at the Buffs' defensive trenches…
CU's DEFENSIVE LINE:
Newcomers: On national signing day in Feburary, CU landed DT Kirk Poston (6-1, 260) from Houston and DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe (6-3, 230) from Corona, Calif. Then in July, Canadian DT Dakota Poole (6-5, 250) of Kelowna, British Columbia was added. Uzo-Diribe probably has the best chance to help this season. One preseason college football publication ranked him as the top sleeper among all recruits in the Big 12 Conference. Uzo-Diribe grew up playing basketball and is only in his third year of football. He is gifted athletically and appears to have outstanding potential as a pass rusher.
Biggest loss: Big things were expected from former Cherry Creek standout Taj Kaynor, but the defensive tackle completed his eligibility last fall as a spot player for four year.


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- Check out this beautiful photo print of a Saint Germain Restaurant taken on a chilly night at the this famous quarter of Paris.
- Original Photo of Paris [Never From Stock]
- Artist grade poly-cotton blend canvas
- Size Available: 8"x8" / 12"x12" / 12"x18" /18"x24" / 20"x30" / 24"x36"
- Frame thickness 1.25"
- Canvas shipped from the US comes with a hard sealed backing and hanging hardware for an effortless install.
- Canvas shipped outside the US comes with an open back and are ready to hang with a sawtooth hanger.
- UV coating is scratch-resistant. Wipe clean with a damp cloth.
- Packaging:
- Small sizes: Clear Poly bag, thin corrugated cardboard and boxed
- Large sizes: Clear Poly bag, Styrofoam protected corners and boxed
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New Task APIs in .NET 4.6
There are several nice API-level enhancements to the Task Parallel Library in .NET 4.6, which you can grab a preview of as part of the Visual Studio 2015 CTP. Task.From* .NET 4.5 had a Task.FromResult method. This method makes it quick and easy to manufacture a new Task for a known result value, and is… Read more
- Tags: Task Parallel Library


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Mixed Martial Arts
PSA: MMA demo and Borderlands DLC now on XBL Marketplace
The Major has posted on his blog reminders of a couple goodies now available on Xbox Live: Claptrap's New Robot Revolution DLC for Borderlands, and a demo for EA Sports' MMA.
Mixed Martial Arts headlines
EA cancels MMA release in Denmark due to energy drink law
Looks like Denmark will be missing out on the release of EA's MMA due to the game featuring marketing for energy drinks.
EA Sports MMA dated for October
EA has announced a released date of October 19 for EA Sports MMA. The date was revealed by Peter Moore at EA's E3 press event this evening.
EA Sports says there'll be "big announcements" for MMA at E3
EA Sports has said via the magic of Twitter that there's to be "big announcements" for MMA during E3.
New MMA shots from EA show exactly what you expect
EA has released eight new screens for its MMA fight game. The shots, per usual, show men brawling, beating, and sweating.
MMA screens from GDC show blood, sweat, maybe some tears
EA Sports has sent over a nice-sized stack of MMA images from GDC that complement the trailer released this week.
Randy Couture announced for EA's Mixed Martial Arts game
EA has announced that Randy Couture has signed on to appear in EA Sports' MMA alongside Fedor Emelianenko, Jay "The Thoroughbred" Hieron an others. "I have been a part of MMA for over 10 years and I am excited about the global visibility that a game like EA SPORTS MMA will bring to the sport," […]
Mixed Martial Arts latest
EA Sports says there'll be "big announcements" for MMA at E3


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©Brenda Coffee. All rights reserved.
I think it would be an understatement to say that most of the country has been inconvenienced by last week's wicked cold spell. While I didn't have rolling blackouts, my rural electric company was struggling to keep the power grid on that services our middle-of-nowhere residence. Midnight, Tuesday, the power began coming on and off every few minutes. Actually, it was more off than on. Because my house is a 100-year-old ranch hand bunkhouse, with original doors and windows and NO insulation, the inside temperature instantly began to plummet. Quickly I made a fire in the fireplace and began throwing blankets, tablecloths, sheets and a cowhide over the few windows that have curtain rods (no neighbors, great views, no curtains), and covered my thin Oushak rugs and cold pine floors with comforters and a sleeping bag.
Twelve hours later, as I stoked the fire, dressed in three sweaters, a sherling coat, hat, gloves, ski socks and boots, waiting for the electricity to come back on, Molly put her paw on my knee and leaned toward me like she was going to tell me a secret. Poor girl. Her teeth were chattering! While it had been a three-dog night and day, Molly wanted no more of it, so I packed a bag, called a hotel, drove into town, boarded the dogs and checked into La Quinta. Who knew I'd have to change rooms twice until I found a room without bullet holes in the windows? <PREVIEWEND>
The next day, armed with 40 feet of bubble wrap and two rolls of duct tape, I returned to the Little House and covered every window and outside door, some of them twice. When the power and the central heat finally returned, I turned on three space heaters as well and waited as the inside temperature reached 40, then 50. It was dark outside, and way below freezing, and just as the thermostat crested 60, the house blew a major fuse. Frustrated, and feeling like I'd taken two giant steps backwards, I realized the longer I stayed, the more I ran the risk of being trapped, unable to get down our steep, soon to be covered in snow and black ice road. So once again, I left and checked back into La Quinta.
The skinny guy at the front desk was the same one who'd checked me out that morning. "Haven't I seen you before?" he asked.
"Yes," I said. "I checked out this morning."
"Do you have a reservation?"
"Not this time," I answered.
Looking slightly puzzled, he asked, "When did you have one?"
"For last night," I said. "But I checked out this morning."
He paused and peered at me, then pushed his glasses back up the bridge of his nose and frowned. "And you don't have a reservation?"
"No," I replied. "Do you still have rooms available?"
"Yes, but you don't have a reservation."
Obviously my clarity and patience were wearing thin. "Excuse me," I said. "But this is sounding like a 'Who's on First' routine. I just want a room, without bullet holes in the windows, and yes, I know they're from the punks next door… Do you have gin?"
After three days of fast food and no hairbrush, or working hotel blow dryers, I look like a bush baby, but my dogs and I are finally home. The bubble wrap seems to be helping because the temperature in the Little House is holding at 73. We'll see what the morning brings.
During all of this, it occurred to me that stress is one of the causes of breast cancer recurrence, and the past six weeks have provided me with a lifetime of stress: my precious husband died unexpectedly; I ripped out the entire undercarriage of my car, searching for him that night; the pump motor at the bottom of the well died, leaving me with no water; someone I'm close to is in the midst of a serious life-altering snit; I've had no heat for three days, and I may have put my life on the line to stay in a sterile motel room with bullet holes, bad pillows and no working blow dryers. If I'm not an upcoming candidate for breast cancer recurrence, no one is.
Most of us work hard to get through cancer, prevent recurrence and survive the other adversities life puts in our path. We stay positive, eat right, exercise, pray and get support from our family and friends. I haven't met anyone for whom giving in is an option. Even in our darkest moments, the resilience of the human spirit is remarkable. While I have great friends, the hole in my heart is huge, and I have leaned on God a lot during these last six weeks. Like a silversmith or goldsmith, God is refining us, tempering our metal and removing our impurities through life's tribulations and trusting in Him. At the moment, I think I should be nearing 18k gold… at least temporarily.
While bubble wrap works to keep the cold weather out, it won't protect us from disease and loss. As my friend, Gayle, says, the hurt would still get through, plus then we couldn't see out the windows. So for the time being, how about we find comforters whether they be God, or friends, or Twitter, and draw strength from all things empowering that helps get us through the night.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
How Might Integration Have Affected The Lefty Grove/Randy Johnson Debate?
I wrote a post comparing these two along with Sandy Koufax a few days ago in response to a piece by Joe Sheehan. A commentor at B aseball Think Factory mentioned that Lefty Grove did not have to face blacks and Hispanics. So here I try estimate how his value could be affected by pitching before integration. The method I use will be similar to the one I used in this article: How Would Integration Have Affected Ruth and Cobb?
I assume that integration increases the talent pool available to baseball. So the relevant questions seem to be how much better would the hitters have been in Grove's time (AL, 1925-41) if there was no segregation and how many more runs would he have given up by having to face better hitters. But I also tried to take into account how much better the fielders and pitchers would have been. I assumed that the new, non-white talent would be about as good as they are now (relative to whites) and would replace the worst players. Then I tried to calculate how the league OPS and league ERA would change based on how good I assumed the new talent to be. Grove's ERA was also adjusted to account for the better pitchers as well as the better fielders behind him. My rough estimate is that his ERA relative to the league average would fall from 144 (or 44% better than average) to 130. Randy Johnson had 133. I think the difference between the two is still small enough to keep Grove in the debate as the greatest lefty ever.
Since the comparison is to Randy Johnson, I first looked to see what percentage of the players were non-white from 1988-2009 and how well they hit compared to the white players. I did this position by position (I try to exlain why at the end in "technical notes"). I found the top 100 players in PAs at each position (but used the top 300 for OFers) from 1988-2009 using the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. This group of players combined to make up about 72% of all PAs during this time.
If I did not feel sure about a player being white or non-white, I found a picture of his baseball card on eBay. For the most part, anyone with an Hispanic name was considered non-white. There were a few player with Hispanic names before 1947, like Lefty Gomez. But I don't think it was very many. I put someone like Mike Gallego in the white category since he had what is considered an "Anglo" first name and he was born in the U.S.
The table below shows the weighted-average OPS of whites and non-whites along with the percentage of PAs at that position by non-whites from 1988-2009.
I assumed that these would be the percentages in the AL from 1925-41. For example, I assumed that 34.8% of the 1B men would be non-white. So I took all the 1B men who had 100 or PAs and ranked them from highest to lowest in OPS. Then I removed the bottom 34.8% (approximately) of the PAs. The idea is that teams would get rid of their worst players when adding in the new, better players from the newly used talent pool.
The players who comprised the top 65.2% of PAs were designated as white players and they had an OPS of .926. The 35.8% of the remaining PAs were assigned to players who were assumed to be non-white and I assumed they would have a collective OPS of .914 (.012 lower than the white, what I found in the first table). Combining both groups together gives an OPS of .922. Before this adjustment, the OPS of all the 1B men was .857. So with the added talent, the new cumulative OPS for 1B men would be about .065 higher than before.
Here are all of the increases in OPS at each position
The weighted average of all these gains is .076. But since I did not include pitchers, I am just going to assume no change for them. So that would bring the change down to .070 (the weighting I used for pitchers was 8.5% based on Retrosheet data).
But before I try to recalculate how many runs Lefty Grove might have given up, I think better fielding has to be taken into account. In my article on Cobb and Ruth linked above, I estimated how much better the fielding would have been since integration began(in a manner similar to how I adjust the hitting stats-the details are explained at the link).
I found that OFers would have been better in putouts per game of by about 15% and assists per game for SS and 2B would have been better by about 5% (I think those stats for their respective positions made sense). Of course, all fielders cannot raise their putouts and/or assists per game since there are only 27 outs per game. But in the adjustment I made, I will assume that the number of hits on balls in play will have to drop by a certain percentage.
I went with 7.5%, which is in the range of the numbers I found for the OFers, SS and 2B men. Those infielders, of course, would also have more putouts. But I think their big contribution would be in throwing more batters out at first. There might be some improvement at 3B and 1B, but those are still mostly white positions, so any change will be slight.
So I assumed that there would have been a reduction in hits on balls in play of 7.5. That means 7.5% fewer, singles, doubles, and triples. At-bats would fall 7.5%, too. Once those changes were made, I recalculated the AL SLG and OBP from 1925-41. The new OBP would be .339 (down from .350) and the new SLG would be .386 (down from .404). The new OPS would be .725, down from .750. So a decline of .025.
But the improved hitting increased OPS by about .070. So subtracting the .025 leaves a .045 increase in OPS. How much would Grove's ERA increase if the OPS he allowed went up .045? To estimate that, I ran a regression on all the AL teams in his era with runs per game as the dependent variable and team OPS as the dependent variable. Here is the equation:
Since 14.23*.045 = .64, I assumed that every pitcher would see his ERA rise by that much (that may not be the case, some might go up more and some might go up less-I am just not sure how to figure that out-but I also tried raising each pitcher's OPS by the percentage increase, too, as explained below).
So let's say that Grove's ERA goes up by 0.64. His career ERA is now 3.70 (it was actually 3.06). If the league ERA went up the same amount, it would be 5.08. But that 5.08 is too high because it would be brought down by the fact that the new, non-white pitchers would raise the overall quality of the league pitching. How much might that be?
First, I assumed that about 22% of the innings would have been pitched by non-whites. So the worst 22% of the white pitchers would be removed. How good would the non-white pitchers be? Overall, as a group, about as good as the white pitchers who remained.
I figured that out by finding the top 288 pitchers in IP from 1988-2009. They collectively had about half the major league IP in this time. After separating them into white and non-white groups, I found that both had about the same ERA relative to the league average. The whites were 6% better and the non-whites were 7% better. So that is why I assumed in the previous paragraph that the incoming pitchers would be about as good as those that remained.
I ranked every pitcher in the AL in the ERA from lowest to highest ERA. Then I only kept the guys who combined to have about 78% of the IP (adding from lowest ERA to highest). This group of pitchers was about 5.7% better than the entire group. So I assumed that by adding the non-white pitchers, who would be as good as the remaining pitchers, would lower the league ERA by 5.7%.
Earlier I said the hitting and fielding would combine to raise the league ERA to 5.0. If it is lowered 5.7%, then it would be 4.81. How does this affect Grove? Before any adjustments, his relative ERA or ERA+ was 144 since 3.06/4.42 = .692 and 1/.692 = 1.44 (and then it is multiplied by 100). But we had his ERA rising to 3.7 and the league ERA rising to 4.81. Then 3.7/4.81 = .769 and 1/.769 = 1.3. That would give him a relative ERA of 130.
What did Randy Johnson have? 133. This still puts the two pitchers very close. What I have done is a very rough estimate. I think a more complete and thorough adjustment could leave Grove a little ahead or a little behind. But either way, Grove still deserves consideration as the greatest lefty every.
If fielding improved by some other percentages, here is what Grove's ERA+ would be
5% 128
10% 131
15% 133
I also tried to raise Grove's OPS allowed by the same percentage by which the league OPS increased instead of the absolute increase. Since I had the league OPS rising by .045 and it was actually .750, that is a 6% increase. Grove gave up 3.64 runs per 9 IP. To score that many runs per game, a team would have an OPS of .651 (so I assumed that was Grove's OPS allowed). If his OPS allowed went up 6%, it would be .690 or a .039 increase. In that case, his runs allowed would go up by 14.23*.039 = .56. That is a bit lower than the .064 mentioned earlier. In this case, his ERA goes up to 3.62. Then his ERA relative to the league average would be 1.33 (3.62/4.81 = .753 and 1/.753 = 133).
I am not sure if Grove's OPS allowed should increased by an absolute amount or a percentge. But his adjusted ERA ends up being about the same in each case.
Technical Notes
The reason I adjusted the league OPS by position instead of just looking at all players is that I ended up eliminating mostly players who were catchers and infielders. Of course, the players eliminated have be proportionate at each position.
Here is what happened. I initially found that from 1988-2009 the whites and non-whites both had about the same OPS (.771). The non-whites were about 51% of the players in the top 900 on PAs from 1988-2009. So I then found all of the players in the AL from 1925-41 with 100 or career PAs. Then I ranked them from highest to lowest OPS and dropped enough players from the lower ranks to make up about half the PAs. Then I found that the OPS for the remaining players was about 100 points higher than what is was before. I was about to use that as my increase for the league OPS but then I noticed all the players left at the top of the OPS ranking were OFers and 1B men. I was going to end up eliminating alot more than half of the 2B, SS and catchers. So then I had to break things down by position in both eras.
In the AL from 1925-41, the players at each position who had 100 or more PAs made up about 90% of all the PAs in the ERA. This is higher than the 72% share I had from the 1988-2009 era. It would have been nice to have a higher share in the latter period but that would have added alot of time to figuring out who whas white or not.
I also used both leagues from 1988-2009 since Randy Johnson pitched in both while Grove only pitched in the AL.
I also used the improvement in fielding since 1947 that I had calculated a few years ago, not just 1988-2009. This saved alot of work. It could be that the fielding improvement is greater from 1988-2009 than over the entire period of integration. But I do list how Grove's ERA+ would end up under different fielding scenarios and the differences are not great.
On the fielding adjustments, I know that it should involve more than just putouts by OFers and assists by SS and 2B men, but my guess is that this will cover the bulk of any improvement. Maybe some day I can incorporate DPs, errors, etc.
I will try to post a list of all the players I used from 1988-2009 and whether they were designated as white or non-white. Check back to see when I do that.
Click here to see that list.
5 comments:
Very interesting analysis.
I conclude something slightly different from your analysis.
From your data, the absence of segregation in baseball could arguably have produced an era equivalent to a higher run scoring environment due to the imbalance from added hitting talent outweighing added pitching and fielding talent. So, the league ERA would have increased.
However, the league-wide increases in hitting talent (and fielding talent) should only affect Grove's ERA, but not his ERA+. Otherwise, it's "double counting" the impact of hitting on Grove's ERA+. Only the influx of pitching talent should affect his ERA+, his standing relative to other pitchers. Everyone faces the same distribution of hitters (roughly).
(I can believe that replacing the bottom 20% as you describe would raise the average by about 6%, as it did for qualifying pitchers from 2000-2009.)
Counting only the impact of the pitching talent influx--the 5.7% improvement in league average ERA independent of changes in hitting--Grove's new ERA+ would then be (4.42/1.057) divided by 3.06 = 137. This is still above Randy Johnson's ERA+.
As an aside, if you look at (actual, gradual) integration in time series, the opposite seemed to have occurred. Run scoring in baseball was high but flat and then decreasing through Grove's career. I find it interesting that, if you take out the WWII years, I think the run scoring trend in generally down, not up, for the next 20 years.
- January 28, 2010 at 12:25 AM
- Cyril Morong said...
Thanks for dropping by and commenting.
I disagree on the double counting issue. You would be right if each pitcher's ERA went up by the same %. Certainly Grove's differential is not going to change. But if each pitcher goes up by the same absolute amount, then Grove's relative ERA falls since 3/4.5 is less than 3.5/5.
To get around this issue, I tried increasing his OPS by both the same absolute amount as I thought the league average would rise as well as the same percentage increase in OPS. My result was similar in both cases. Of course, that all assumed a linear relationship between OPS and runs, which may not be true. But my guess is that even if the relationship is non-linear, it is not very much so and the result would not be affected very much.
Think about a league where Grove pitches a shutout every game and the league ERA is 1.5. His relative ERA is 0 (or infinite if you take the reciprocal). Now we add in a bunch of new, good hitters. If each pitcher's ERA goes up by .5, then Grove's relative ERA has to fall.
I wish I knew why run scoring fell in the beginning years of integration. It seems like it should have been the opposite since the non-whites have played a bigger role as hitters than pitchers. There might be some other factors at work.
- January 28, 2010 at 11:17 AM
I see your point about adjusting ERA, and ERA+, for the change in the run scoring environment. BB-reference can adjust a player's stats for different environments, assuming that each pitcher faces a constant number of batters (before fatigue sets in or pitch counts come into play).
I think ERA+ understates how much more dominant Grove was in his time than Johnson was. The ERA+ calculation is apparently sensitive enough for even a small rise in league scoring to wipe out Grove's advantage in ERA+.
That said, it's hard to argue that Grove's dominance over the AL, as I have looked at in terms of standard deviation in ERA, would have deteriorated to the level which Johnson had over his leagues.
Also, in 17 seasons, Grove led the 8-team league in ERA 9 times, and was top 5 3 other times. In 22 seasons, Johnson led 14/16 team leagues 4 times, and was top 5 4 other times. Maybe Grove's (and Ruth's) apparent dominance has as much to do with league size as with segregation.
Both Johnson and Grove pitched in high run-scoring environments. Is it easier to dominate in high scoring environments than low? (Maybe I'll look at the standard score for the ERA league leader and regress against changes with league R/G and number of teams.)
- January 28, 2010 at 2:31 PM
- Cyril Morong said...
I found that Grove had 12 top 5 finishes in SO/BB while Johnson had 11. Grove beats him in top 10 finishes 13-11. I tend to agree that Grove was more dominant and still would be after adjustments.
And here is something I posted to the SABR List in early 2006:
"I thought it would be interesting to use a point system to see how well pitchers have done in RSAA (runs saved above average and it is park adjusted). A first place finish would be 10 points, second 9, and so on. Ties would split points. A tie for first would get 9.5. Then I called up the annual top tens for the AL, NL and AA using the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. Each pitcher got his points then a career total was found for each guy. Here are the top 10
Cy Young-134
W. Johnson-111.5
R. Johnson-83
Here is something I did with FIP ERA and standard deviations
The two are close.
Here is something else I did with standard deviations. You just have to look for each guy's name
- January 29, 2010 at 12:55 PM
- Cyril Morong said...
here is that last link
- January 29, 2010 at 2:51 PM


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Costa Rica
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Error 80070428 occurs when you connect to Xbox Live on your Xbox 360
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Macon County (MCHS) Class of 1996 Alumni List
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How to Get a Lean & Muscular Midsection
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How to Get a Lean & Muscular Midsection - 02-12-2013, 01:58 AM
by Doug Brignole
Getting a lean / muscular midsection could possibly be the most common fitness goal, as well as the most misunderstood. I think its safe to say that Ive seen more time and effort wasted on ab***inal exercises that are ineffective, than I have for any other body part. And yet, its really very simple. That doesnt mean without effort. It just means uncomplicated. Heres the scoop.
There are three reasons WHY achieving a lean midsection is so misunderstood:
1. Misleading advertising and/or misguided instruction
2. Wishful thinking
3. Lack of understanding of how the body works
It might seem reasonable to believe that ab***inal fat can be reduced or eliminated by working that area (i.e. doing sit-ups, leg raises, twists, side bends, etc.) but, if you believe that, you would be mistaken in a big way. Companies trying to sell you an ab***inal exercise product, a course or a book often LIE to you (what a surprise!) so they can make a profit. They tell you that you CAN exclusively reduce ab***inal fat by using their product, and you believe them.
The truth is that your lifestyle created the problem and the solution must address your lifestyle both your diet as well as your overall exercise program. The idea that one exercise, or a killer ab routine alone, will make your abs ripped is wishful thinking. For those of you who are guilty of that sort of idealistic optimism, ripped abs will remain a fantasy, until you understand how the body loses fat, and then do the correct homework.
The Myth of Spot Reduction
You cannot specifically lose ab***inal fat by doing ab***inal exercise. Period.
That bears repeating for the simple reason that, although people have heard that they cannot spot reduce their midsection, and they say they understand it, they continue doing things that demonstrate a belief in spot reduction. It is impossible to lose ANY ab***inal fat, by doing ab***inal exercises.
When you perform ab***inal exercise, the muscle which is underneath the fat layer does the work. But the muscle is not what needs fixing. Ab exercises benefit the muscle under the fat, but do nothing for the fat layer which covers the muscle.
That jiggly stuff that is on your midsection is not un-toned muscle; nor is it flab that can be firmed up or converted into muscle. Its fat, and can only be reduced as part of a whole-body-fat-loss-plan. You might indeed have a well-developed ab***inal muscle under that fat, but you will never see it, and that fat layer will remain the same, until you address your overall diet and overall exercise program regardless of how many sit-ups, or crunches, or leg raises, you do.
If you do daily ab***inal exercises and/or high repetition ab crunches, or leg raises, you are demonstrating a belief in spot reduction. Stop it. Its a waste of time. It hasnt worked, and it wont work in the future. If you believe that your ab***inal muscles burning, during your high-rep crunches, is proof that your ab***inal fat is melting away, you are seriously mistaken. That burning sensation is occurring in the muscle (i.e. lactic acid) it is not occurring in the fat.
You cannot choose where to take fat off your body just as you cannot choose where to add fat onto your body. This is a physiological fact. You must put your entire body into fat loss mode, in order to lose fat around your midsection. Have you ever seen anyone with ripped abs who was fat everywhere else ? Of course not. And you never will. You must get leaner overall, to get a lean midsection.
How Fat Gets Burned
Fat is stored on the body in a specific molecular form, called adipose tissue. The body cannot, and does not, burn adipose tissue. In order for body fat loss to occur, the body must first convert adipose tissue into free fatty acids, which is the useable form of fuel. Only then, can the body actually use it (spend it, burn it, whatever you want to call it).
When this conversion takes place, it does so systemically (throughout the entire body) not locally (nearest to where the muscle is working). After this conversion takes place, free fatty acids enter the bloodstream, and go to the working muscle. In other words, tiny amounts of free fatty acids, which were converted from tiny amounts of adipose tissue, which came from all over your entire body simultaneously, provide whichever muscle is working at that particular time, with its necessary fuel. And its the larger muscles like the leg muscles which are more likely to require that sort of fuel.
That is why people lose fat everywhere on their body including their face when they peddle a stationary bicycle even though they are only peddling with their legs. Fat only comes off the body as a whole. It cannot, and will not, come off only the area of your choosing.
This process only happens if your diet is right. If your diet is wrong, and there is plenty of fuel in the bloodstream from foods youve recently eaten, the body will not have to resort to spending its fat storage. Further, if your insulin level is high during your workout, because you ate some candy or bread (or other sugary / starchy carbohydrate) mistakenly believing it would give you energy just before the workout, your body will resist giving up its reserve fat, even if your total caloric intake is fairly low. These are two of the reasons people often do not lose body fat, even though theyre exercising: theyre still eating too much, and/or theyre eating the wrong kinds of foods.
How To Get Leaner Overall Part One: The Diet
You must make dietary changes in order to lose body fat. Specifically, you must reduce your calories, but perhaps more importantly you must reduce or eliminate certain types of food, and replace them with better choices. Starches and sugars cause the body to produce more insulin, and that will cause your body to store more body fat and/or restrict fat loss even if you are exercising every day, and even if your caloric intake is not exceptionally high. Some people produce more insulin than others. If you tend to have a weight problem, its likely that you are one of those people. Dietary fat is actually less of a problem in terms of body fat than are starches and sugars.
Starches and sugars are considered high-glycemic, which means that they convert quickly to glucose, and therefore result in a dramatic rise in your insulin production. Instead, try getting your carbohydrates from vegetables (brocolli, cauliflower, zuccini, squash, tomatoes, peas, carrots, etc.) and legumes (lentils, black beans, kidney beans, etc.) and to a lesser degree some fruits. Try to reduce as much as possible flour products (breads, pasta, crackers, flour tortillas, etc .), as well as potatoes, white rice, and sugar. And dont be afraid to eat nuts, avocadoes, olive oil, cheese, etc. Although there are still those who advocate a low-fat, high-carb diet, there is plenty of evidence that obesity levels rise dramatically with that type of diet. Further, new research has demonstrated that a reduction of starches and sugars, and a slight increase of healthy fats, has produced more fat loss and better health.
Try eating four or five small meals, and make sure that each of them has a protein source, a low-glycemic carbohydrate source, and a little fat. For example, grilled chicken, steamed vegetables with a little olive oil, and an avocado. Or, scrambled eggs, with ham and black beans. Or, a steak, a salad with dressing, and some fruit.
How To Get Leaner Overall Part Two: The Exercise Program
The best approach is a combination of aerobic exercise and whole-body resistance training. Both types of exercise have a different fat loss effect. Resistance training makes all of your muscles more metabolically active, meaning that they burn more calories all day long, when they are strong. Plus, those who do only aerobic exercise tend to become more efficient at it. Meaning that their body eventually learns to conserve fuel while doing aerobic exercise, which means less fat loss. Those who combine weight training with aerobic exercise have a much better rate of fat loss.
Also, interval training works best, when doing cardiovascular exercise. Low intensity / long duration exercise is ultimately less effective, than either high intensity / short duration (15 20 minutes) or alternating between high intensity (for one minute) and then low intensity (for one minute). High intensity burns more overall calories (in a shorter period of time), plus it stimulates your metabolism more than low intensity aerobic exercise.
When doing your weight training, try to emphasize working the larger muscle groups, like your legs, your back and your pectoral muscles. The smaller muscles, like the shoulders and arms, contribute much less to the overall metabolism. For best results, try weight training 2 5 days per week (with either a full-body workout, or a split program where you work different body parts on different days). The more often you exercise, the better the result, obviously.
Ab***inal Exercise
Work your ab***inal muscles the same way you would work any other muscle in your body 2 to 3 times per week (not on consecutive days), approximately 3 to 8 sets of 15 to 20 repetitions, with full-range-of-motion, a deliberate contraction at each repetition, and a resistance that challenges the muscle. In other words, think of your ab exercises like you would your chest or back exercises. You would never think to do 100 partial-range-of-motion reps of a chest or back exercise. Instead, you do slow, deliberate, full-range of motion reps, for 15 20. Do the same thing for your abs.
When doing ab exercises, choose exercises that emphasize spinal movement, rather than hip movement. In other words, crunches are infinitely better than leg-raises. My favorites are decline crunches and kneeling cable crunches.
Now hear this: there is no such thing as a lower ab. It doesnt exist. The ab***inal muscle is one continuous muscle, that begins at the base of the rib-cage, and ends at the pubic bone of the pelvis. And you cannot work one end of the muscle more than the other end. The whole muscle works evenly.
When someone says this works the lower abs, they are either grossly mistaken or fibbing (for the sake of marketing). First, you cannot lose lower ab***inal fat because spot reduction is impossible. Second, you cannot work the only lower part of the muscle (the rectus ab***inus aka the six pack) because it isnt a separate muscle. You also cannot add notches to your abs. The shape of your notches, and number of grooves your ab muscle shows are fixed (set in stone). It is determined by genetics. You cannot add a third or fourth row of ab muscles, simply by working them. Its a fibrous divider that is either there, or not, since birth. All you can do is accentuate the ones you already have (hiding under your fat layer, if you arent yet lean), by thickening those muscle fibers with ab exercises, and reduce the fat that covers them, with diet and a good over-all exercise plan that lowers your total body fat.
When the ab***inal muscle contracts, the rib-cage and the pelvis move closer together, which creates a curling of the torso. And when the muscle extends (stretches), it allows the rib-cage and pelvis to get farther apart, which creates an arching of the torso. That should be the goal of any ab***inal exercise: to arch the spine and then curl the spine. That is a classic crunching movement.
Too often I see people doing something they might call an ab***inal crunch, but is little more than a head and neck lift. To say that this is an incomplete range of motion is an understatement ! Its about 10% range of motion. You gotta crank out the rest of that 90% (range of motion) if you want to develop that muscle. And if that means that you do fewer repetitions, its fine. 15 20 solid, forceful repetitions of full range of motion crunches, with a deliberate contraction at each rep, is FAR better than 100 reps of 10% range of motion, with no deliberate contraction. Remember, crunches are for building the muscle not for reducing the fat in that area.
If you are one of those people who does endless reps of teeny-tiny ab crunches, you are wasting your time and energy. You will not get any sort of result that way. You are neither burning fat, nor developing muscle. Instead, use a 3-prong approach.
1. Make the appropriate changes to your diet
2. Combine smart aerobic exercise with full-body resistance training
3. Work your ab muscles no differently than you would any other muscle (non-consecutive days, 15-20 reps per set, 4-8 total sets per workout, full-range of motion with deliberate contraction)
This type of program will give you the best odds of achieving your goal. Genetics also plays a role in determining your ultimate result, as does any hormonal or metabolic problems you may have. It would be a mistake to assume that everyone who uses the same program gets the same result. As they say, results may vary. I recommend that the amount of effort you use should be reasonable, as determined by your own sensibilities unless youre preparing for physique competition, or you have a temporary, short-term goal, like a high school reunion, after which you can return to a more balanced program.
The bottom line is that the ONLY smart way to achieve a lean midsection is by addressing the big picture: your overall body fat level. And the way to do that is by addressing your diet and your overall exercise program of which your actual ab***inal exercises are only a small part, as ironic as that may seem.
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