text:
Pittsboro, NC
As the PDRA enters its fourth season, several partnerships founded in 2014 continue to be critical pieces of the PDRA puzzle today. Hoosier Racing Tire joined the PDRA story as the Official Tire in 2014 and retains that title now for the fourth consecutive season. Hoosier also posts contingency awards in all Pro and Sportsman classes, as well as special event classes.
"We look forward to continuing our relationship with PDRA and the racers that compete in this series this year," said Faron Lubbers of Hoosier Racing Tire. "Our continued support of the series and the racers means a lot to us as and we're looking forward to a great season and beyond."
Hoosier Racing Tire will be onsite offering trackside support at all of the PDRA events with their great corporate representative Frank Papp and servicing representative of Jody Skeens Track Side Service. As a customer-driven company, Hoosier Racing Tire carries many of the PDRA's competitors to the winner's circle.
Photo: Gary Rowe / RaceWorks.com / PDRA660.com
"Continued support from industry-leading companies like Hoosier is a large part of what makes the PDRA a strong and growing organization," thanked PDRA Director of Marketing, Will Smith. "We thank Faron and the great team at Hoosier for supporting our organization and our racers. We're all in this for the same reason - to support the racers and we appreciate our partners, like Hoosier, who help us do that here at the PDRA."
For more information on Hoosier Racing Tire visit www.hoosiertire.com.


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Is it temporary upset or more?
Well I had thought things were going great for a change. However, they arent. Bombshell landed in my lap on Thanksgiving Day and today. Not good whatsoever. The first bomb that exploded is something I had a gut feeling on ok? Did I want to happen? No but of course I am the blame as usual. That being forgotten, neglected, treated as if I am barely tolerable to be around should make me happy and overjoyed with love and kindness and etc. (I dont think so do you?) The next one is my youngest calling collect and I cant accept which he knows, telling me to tell another to do what I have been doing all the while. So why does another get the credit for what I have been doing? I dont know but will remedy that soon enough.
So er goes the question ok? IS this normal to be upset over these things or is it maybe an early step into depression? I believe its normal to be upset and not in depression. Although it can easily head that way if I let it. In other words to totally consume my thoughts, and etc.
Thus does anyone have any ideas or thoughts or words on this?
Thank you
6 replies
I think most of us are distressed when we feel we are not valued for what we have offered (your teaching your youngest who now "hears" the message from someone else) or when our life is rocked by something like your first bombshell. Distress is a very NORMAL reaction.
The questions is what are you going to do with it now? If you let yourself stay upset, then you can continue a slow steady downward emotional spiral which is a horrible feeling even if it never becomes a depression. As James said, you are a very strong woman who keeps bouncing back after one crisis after another, so you know you can deal with this too.
You actually say this in your message too: that you could let this totally consume your thoughts. It's a choice. Lay out the facts, make some preliminary decisions, set it aside for a while, come back and review your choices, and then act and turn loose of it.
Reminds me of an experience I once had with a low flying bird. I couldn't believe it, but it actually pooped on my head as it flew over. I could have stood there and yelled at the bird for pooping on me (and I did sputter a few choice thoughts), but then I grabbed a hose and did a very impromptu shampoo. I refuse to stand there with poop dripping off my hair when I can do something about it.
You just can't control everyone else's crummy behaviors, manage your own and let the others go. Eventually, the creator/universe teaches its own lessons to those who are so insensitive to others.
I agree and thank you most kindly of the words and thoughts you put into your post. James and you are so right. I do keep bouncing back. I believe those who dont care wish it were otherwise but tis not in my nature. :) I do wish I could all of you a big hug in person! Yes those others crummy behaviors are theirs and I am not going to make it mine. Thank you and hugs! :)
Temi, Only if you let yourself go into depression! I believe I know you well enough over the years I've been on this site with you that you are a tough lady, both emotionally and physically, that you've been through a lot since being here and you end up on top again and again.
I am sure you will overcome these tough times again!
Praying for this to be so for you.
Thank you James for your kind words. I will keep them close. Have a great day!:) Hugs
Well… I suppose getting upset is fine. And when it is family, it would naturally consume all your thoughts. Depression? Not knowing you very well, I could not really say it was or was not for you. Looking at just the facts…No, I would not say that getting upset was headed for depression. Family issues usally flare up during the Holidays when there is so much pressure to be around each other, and it is usally portrayed as all Happy.
Just realize that all this shall pass too. Doing what you can do, controlling what you can control, and then leaving the rest. I don't know if you are a praying person, but I always lift up my troubles to God, and then I turn loose of them and let Him take care of them. You will be in my prayers tonight dear! I hope you have a peaceful night with sweet dreams. bg
Yes I believe in the Creator as others would call him God. Yet sometimes we humans will ask for clarification on a situation. Thus having the input from James and yourself helps with that and the understanding will make all the difference. Wado Hugs
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Bits Bucket for January 26, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
We're number six!
January 18, 2013
10 states with the most homes in foreclosure
6. California
2012 foreclosure rate: 2.33%
November, 2012 unemployment: 9.8% (3rd highest)
Home price change (2007Q2-2012Q2): -41.0% (4th largest decline)
Processing period: 117 days
From the second quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2012, home prices in California fell by 41%, a larger decline than all but three other states. But in the aftermath of the U.S. recession and housing crisis, home prices in the state have rebounded. Over the three years ending in the second quarter of 2012, home prices increased by 7.3%, more than all states except Virginia and North Dakota. Still, the widespread and long-lasting effects of the recession—the state's 9.8% unemployment rate remains among the worst in the U.S.—prevent many homeowners from affording their mortgage.
CA is ground zero for housing graft, corruption, foreclosures and excess empty houses.
Again folks….. the inevitable cannot be avoided. Kicking the can down the road is the name of the game but it's not sound policy.
It's not going to end well in CA…. or anywhere else for that matter. We're seeing the cracks already.
I watch condos in Glendale, CA. A little over a year ago, there were around 130 condos for sale in Glendale. Right now there are about 30.
So now that there appears to be a demand for housing, wouldn't it be easier for builders to get loans to build more residential units? The residential buying spree by investors may have the unintended consequence of adding a lot more inventory, thus ultimately decreasing prices.
The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?
By Matthew O'Brien
Jan 25 2013, 10:52 AM ET 46
How real is Canada's housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country's.
Canada has a new worthwhile initiative. After years of booming prices, that bastion of politeness north of the border is looking to avoid a catastrophic housing bust for something more, well, boring. Initiatives don't get more worthwhile, and perhaps not more difficult considering Canada just might have the biggest housing bubble in the world right now.
Not exactly boring, eh?
The distinction between higher prices and bubbly prices isn't as subjective as it might sound. Like any other financial asset, there should be a fairly steady relationship between the price of housing and the stream of income — rent — it produces. Should be. The chart below, from The Economist, looks at the price-to-rent ratios across different countries, and measures how under-or-overvalued housing is, with negative numbers corresponding to the former and positive ones to the latter.
As realtors like to remind us, every market's different, but there are three big takeaways here.
1) Rich Chinese buyers tend to make for overheated markets. Some of the priciest housing markets in the world have one thing in common, besides low-interest rates (which prevail most everywhere): Chinese expats. Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Sydney are among the most popular destinations for wealthy Chinese looking to hedge their bets, and this exit-strategy buying has helped push prices in these locales into the stratosphere.
2) Housing busts can take awhile. After a decade of boom and bust, prices are back to fair value, below it actually, in the U.S. and Ireland, but still have a way to come down in Spain and Britain. Zombie banks tend to be reluctant to realize losses on bad loans, propping up prices in the process, but eventually reality has its day. The sooner that happens, the sooner housing, and construction, can come back.
3) Housing recoveries can take even longer. It was just 20 years ago that the land below the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposed to be worth more than all of the land in California combined. But beware the enduring costs of bad macro policy. Too tight money for too long has kept housing prices in hibernation decades on.
Canada is quietly trying to deflate its bubble without any eye-catching headlines. And that means keeping interest rates low while making mortgages harder to get. Now, raising rates to pop a bubble sounds like the kind of hard-hearted long view central bankers pride themselves on, but it's more hard-headed. Higher rates don't just make housing (or any other asset bought with borrowed money) less affordable for new buyers; they make them less affordable for old buyers with adjustable-rate loans too. That sends prices spiraling down and savings racing up, as heavily indebted households, which Canada has no shortage of, try to rebuild their net worths. Higher desired savings outpaces desired investment — in other words, the economy collapses — and subsequently cutting rates, even to zero, won't do much to reverse this, as houses and businesses are mostly indifferent to lower borrowing costs while they focus on paying down existing debts. It's what economist Richard Koo calls a "balance sheet recession," and it's a good description of how an economy can get stuck in a liquidity trap.
But by keeping rates where they are and slowly tightening mortgage requirements, Canada hopes to engineer a more gradual price decline that won't set off a vicious circle. In the best case, prices wouldn't fall, except belo the rate of inflation, so that real prices decline without hitting household net worths. This strategy is hardly unique — China has done the same the past few years — but it has the very Canadian name of "macroprudential regulation".
I love watching those Canadian shows on HGTV where the young couple gets into a bidding war on a $500k 3bd/1bth fixer upper and then the show host spends $200k remodeling it into their "dream house".
When the market craters its going to take a lot of Wall Street Hedgies and banks with it.
I look forward to TARPII, the electric buggalo.
The Biggest Housing Bubble in the World Is in … Canada?
By Matthew O'Brien
Jan 25 2013, 10:52 AM ET
How real is Canada's housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country's.
Canada has a new worthwhile initiative. After years of booming prices, that bastion of politeness north of the border is looking to avoid a catastrophic housing bust for something more, well, boring. Initiatives don't get more worthwhile, and perhaps not more difficult considering Canada just might have the biggest housing bubble in the world right now.
Not exactly boring, eh?
The distinction between higher prices and bubbly prices isn't as subjective as it might sound. Like any other financial asset, there should be a fairly steady relationship between the price of housing and the stream of income — rent — it produces. Should be. The chart below, from The Economist, looks at the price-to-rent ratios across different countries, and measures how under-or-overvalued housing is, with negative numbers corresponding to the former and positive ones to the latter.
As realtors like to remind us, every market's different, but there are three big takeaways here.
1) Rich Chinese buyers tend to make for overheated markets. Some of the priciest housing markets in the world have one thing in common, besides low-interest rates (which prevail most everywhere): Chinese expats. Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Sydney are among the most popular destinations for wealthy Chinese looking to hedge their bets, and this exit-strategy buying has helped push prices in these locales into the stratosphere.
2) Housing busts can take awhile. After a decade of boom and bust, prices are back to fair value, below it actually, in the U.S. and Ireland, but still have a way to come down in Spain and Britain. Zombie banks tend to be reluctant to realize losses on bad loans, propping up prices in the process, but eventually reality has its day. The sooner that happens, the sooner housing, and construction, can come back.
3) Housing recoveries can take even longer. It was just 20 years ago that the land below the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposed to be worth more than all of the land in California combined. But beware the enduring costs of bad macro policy. Too tight money for too long has kept housing prices in hibernation decades on.
Canada is quietly trying to deflate its bubble without any eye-catching headlines. And that means keeping interest rates low while making mortgages harder to get. Now, raising rates to pop a bubble sounds like the kind of hard-hearted long view central bankers pride themselves on, but it's more hard-headed. Higher rates don't just make housing (or any other asset bought with borrowed money) less affordable for new buyers; they make them less affordable for old buyers with adjustable-rate loans too. That sends prices spiraling down and savings racing up, as heavily indebted households, which Canada has no shortage of, try to rebuild their net worths. Higher desired savings outpaces desired investment — in other words, the economy collapses — and subsequently cutting rates, even to zero, won't do much to reverse this, as houses and businesses are mostly indifferent to lower borrowing costs while they focus on paying down existing debts. It's what economist Richard Koo calls a "balance sheet recession," and it's a good description of how an economy can get stuck in a liquidity trap.
But by keeping rates where they are and slowly tightening mortgage requirements, Canada hopes to engineer a more gradual price decline that won't set off a vicious circle. In the best case, prices wouldn't fall, except below the rate of inflation, so that real prices decline without hitting household net worths. This strategy is hardly unique — China has done the same the past few years — but it has the very Canadian name of "macroprudential regulation".
According to the Economist, US houses are about 8% undervalued as compared to rentals. I guess that's why people are saying it's cheaper to buy than rent now.
Interesting that we're grouped with Germany, Japan, Austria, South Africa- other countries with undervalued houses. I can't perceive a common thread.
Axis powers from WWII?
Good one, but what are we doing in there? And what would make houses be undervalued in the countries that lost WW2?
Which issue of the Economist was that?
Don't know if they said it again later, but this is from November 2011.
Shanghai Building 30% More Housing Than Year Ago
Kenneth Rapoza, Contributor
Developers in the city of Shanghai are trying to avoid a steadily increasing housing bubble, putting up 30 percent more properties this coming February than they did in February 2012.
The city's major real estate developers are said to be building just 13 new residential properties in February, the same number that they planned late last year, real estate website Soufun.com said Saturday. The number is up, however, from the 10 projects Shanghai developers built last February.
The Shanghai Daily reported the figures from the Chinese language website today, saying that out of all the new housing projects, which include high rises and stand-alone housing, half will be built beyond the city's center.
Hope and Change
"It should come as no surprise that the Communist Party USA is on board with President Obama's plan to attack Americans' right to keep and bear arms as a means to "end gun violence." A cardinal feature of communist regimes, like all dictatorships, is the prohibition of private ownership of arms, creating a monopoly of force in the hands of the State."
Filed under "latest NRA talking points."
"At age 18, Barack Obama admittedly arrived at Occidental College a committed revolutionary Marxist. What was the source of Obama's foundation in Marxism? Throughout his 2008 Presidential campaign and term in office, questions have been raised regarding Barack Obama's family background, economic philosophy, and fundamental political ideology. Dreams from My Real Father is the alternative Barack Obama "autobiography," offering a divergent theory of what may have shaped our 44th President's life and politics.
In Dreams from My Real Father, Barack Obama is portrayed by a voiceover actor who chronicles Barack Obama's life journey in socialism, from birth through his election to the Presidency. The film begins by presenting the case that Barack Obama's real father was Frank Marshall Davis, a Communist Party USA propagandist who likely shaped Obama's world view during his formative years. Barack Obama sold himself to America as the multi-cultural ideal, a man who stood above politics. Was the goat herding Kenyan father only a fairy tale to obscure a Marxist agenda, irreconcilable with American values?"
Did you miss the memo that the election was in November 2012?
Obama won, Romney lost though at least the 47% supported him.
Can we please move past party politics?
I'm just going to pull the pin and toss this one over the fence:
You are right…to loosely quote Hillary Clinton during her testimony on Benghazi…"what difference does it make at this point?"
So we have four years in which Obama will either make us communist country, be destroyed in the attempt to make us a communist country, or the people who think he will do so will be proven to be a bunch of saps.
I look forward to the results in four years.
The funny thing is there is almost no difference between Obama's policies and Bush's policies.
This is what happens with an "affirmative action" president. Still waiting for him (and Bloomberg) to disarm their security details. They have all those dangerous guns. But heck still waiting for Obummer to pay all the additional taxes that he himself says he should be paying. Wonder what is stopping him? Forgot he's a limousine liberal*
*recently rebrand as "progressive"
You'll note that Obama signed an order extending Bush's Secret Service protection for life.
With the help of an emergency law usually used at times of war, the Greek government has finally cracked a strike by subway workers that had brought Athens to a standstill for a week.
After a fierce showdown that had seen the political temperature rise, employees gradually returned to work in the wake of the ruling coalition's high-risk decision to forcibly mobilise them under threat of arrest. "The workers didn't have an option," said Manthos Tsakos, a prominent unionist representing metro workers. "We are exploring legal options."
With the strike seen as a test of the government's resolve to take on unions opposed to austerity measures demanded by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, the move by the prime minister, Antonis Samaras, brought a storm of protest, with politicians and unions condemning it as resonant of authoritarian rule.
Wonder if RE in Athens is a good buy now? I know several people who got London apartments in the 1970s when the pound / British economy was dead on its feet.
It's always a good time to buy
I would love to see the Property Brothers buy the Parthenon and fix it up. That place is in bad need of a renovation.
Cover it in vinyl, and put in some double-hung replacement windows, it would look nice. It's always going to be cold in the winter on that marble slab, might want to put in some baseboard heaters. Add a carport…it's got potential.
Anyone who missed watching Frontline's "The Untouchables" can watch it here:
China's smog issues have been in the news a lot lately, and for good reason: Beijing's smog levels in particular reached a level deemed hazardous earlier this month.
In Shanghai, a new animated mascot tries to make the whole smog thing a little more palatable. When the air is clear, she's green and smiley. When air pollution is at its worst, she cries. Guess what she's doing right now?
I think Beijing's air pollution is way past "hazardous"
Good thing they don't have the EPA regulations over there in China, it might interfere with business.
When air pollution is at its worst, she cries. Guess what she's doing right now?
Vomiting blood?
LOL. You're evil.
Some highlights:
"it just so happens that people in government use guns to kill the most people by far. Surely that's something to keep in mind when talking about gun control."
"With all the shrieking we hear about "saving the children," you don't hear much about saving them from a government that has already indentured them in the future to pay off its current debts."
"So before our insolent and audacious "public servants" start getting all uppity with their repeated calls for private citizens to lay down their weapons, we feel they should set a good civic example and lay down theirs first."
Filed under "latest NRA talking points."
Has it ever occured to you that flyover doesn't want to live in the Peoples' Republic of Dianne Feinstein? And how many times have you ever voted against her in a primary or general election?
Your post is way off topic and helps to clarify that your main business here is politics, not economics.
"Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here."
Yeah, proving that a career in academics tends to limit the ability to read and understand.
Perhaps it's time to revise that wording a bit:
"Post off-topic ideas, links, paranoid NRA rants, Republican extremist propaganda bombs, and Craigslist finds here."
Yes, but you see, if you'd actually READ the article, you would have noted (then again, maybe not) what the author had to say about Wayne LaPierre and the NRA.
Sigh. Tenure.
CBIT, I do apologize for the ad-hominem. It was very wrong of me. The only excuse I can offer is that I caught an article about the Senate quietly doing some sort of shamnasty deal and it sent me into orbit.
Marco Screwbio. A real POS.
palmetto — apology accepted. But frankly, I am accustomed to much worse, so no harm done either…
As long as states define their gun regulation, or lack thereof, a citizen of this great nation can vote with their feet if they don't like the local laws. For example, I can leave Mass and move to NH, where there is far less nanny state and far more personal liberty.
The Federal law would negate this… as Goon said, what right does Feinstein have to tell the rest of the country how to live? There is a very good reason I don't live in CA and probably never will…
Perhaps it's time to revise that wording a bit:
"Post off-topic ideas, links, paranoid NRA rants, Republican extremist propaganda bombs, and Craigslist finds here."
Are you saying there are never any left wing rants or propaganda here?
"Are you saying there are never any left wing rants or propaganda here?"
Not at all. I hope you point it out when you see them…
Any more goofy rants from both sides are just background noise to me. My mission for a while was to point out personal attacks, but I've given up on that, too. Most everybody here has been here for quite a while and knows exactly what they are doing. I doubt anybody is offended or scared off at this point. And I figure anybody here to spread REIC propaganda deserves what they get…
So I don't bother pointing anything out any more and it's probably just as well.
"Any more goofy rants from both sides are just background noise to me."
Good man.
I try to ignore them, but when they take on the proportions of perpetual noise pollution, it gets very annoying.
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2013-01-26 06:38:38
Your post is way off topic and helps to clarify that your main business here is politics, not economics.
Don't they effect one another enormously? Hard to separate.
"Hard to separate."
Then explain how a leading post about how Obama is gonna take away all your guns has any relevance to the housing bubble.
"And how many times have you ever voted against her in a primary or general election?"
For me, everytime.
I just hope this plague can be contained.
If Obama can just "take away our guns" then what's the point in having them? I thought the reason so many people are armed to their teeth was to fight back if the government tries to take away their freedoms.
So he's coming for your guns. Start shooting then. Defend you r freedoms. What are you all waiting for?
Obama Picks a Prosecutor: Mary Jo White Appointed to Head SEC
James Gattuso
January 25, 2013 at 1:10 pm
Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Newscom
President Obama, moving quickly to complete the lineup for his second-term regulatory team, nominated attorney Mary Jo White yesterday to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The selection is a critical one, as the agency is still struggling to complete the rulemakings required under the Dodd–Frank financial regulation act, while facing pressure from the courts and Congress to improve the sometimes sketchy quality of its regulatory analysis.
The SEC has been a key regulatory agency since it was launched in 1934 under the leadership of Joseph Kennedy Sr. But it has never before been challenged as it is now. Under Dodd–Frank, the agency was required to complete some 95 rulemakings, ranging from tightened regulation of derivatives to reform of corporate governance rules. Nearly three years after Dodd–Frank's passage, the SEC—like other agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—finds itself far behind schedule. As of the beginning of 2013, only 33 rulemaking proceedings have been completed. Deadlines have been missed for 49 more.
But the quantity of the SEC's output may be a lesser concern than the quality of its analysis. In 2011, an appeals court unceremoniously threw out the Commission's rules on shareholder proxy access, finding that the agency's analysis of the rules' cost and effect was severely flawed. This wasn't a one-time hiccup—the problems found by the appeals court, many say, have long been typical of the SEC's approach to analysis. The controversy led to the passage last year by the House of Representatives of a bill to require the SEC to complete formal cost-benefit analysis before adopting significant new rules.
It is unclear how well Ms. White's background prepares her for these challenges. Her background is in litigation—as a prosecutor and defense lawyer—rather than as an administrator or policymaker. This presents the danger that she may see maximizing jail terms rather than expanding wealth creation as her goal. Alternatively, her litigation background could be an advantage—if it leads to focus on prosecuting actual crimes (think Bernie Madoff) rather than expanding regulation. These are questions that should be explored by Senators as they consider confirmation of White to this position.
"This presents the danger that she may see maximizing jail terms rather than expanding wealth creation as her goal. Alternatively, her litigation background could be an advantage—if it leads to focus on prosecuting actual crimes (think Bernie Madoff) rather than expanding regulation."
The SEC can't bring criminal prosecutions, only civil cases and they don't lead to jail sentences. It can refer cases to prosecutors that do have that authority, but they can't those prosecutors do anything with the referrals. This guy is so ignorant that he should probably be ignored.
Thanks for shedding light on the article from a legal angle.
Legal/Regulatory | The Trade
January 9, 2013, 12:00 pm
New Target in Finger-Pointing Over Housing Bubble
By JESSE EISINGER, ProPublica
Edward J. Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute has criticized the government's role in the housing bubble.Brendan Smialowski for The New York TimesEdward J. Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute has criticized the government's role in the housing bubble.
No matter how many times people debunk the notion that government policy created the housing bubble, it doesn't die. It's part of what the blogger Barry Ritholtz has called the "big lie" of the financial crisis. Now, we are having another argument about whether the government is creating a new housing disaster for taxpayers.
The target this time: the Federal Housing Administration, the government mortgage insurer, mostly for low-to-moderate income and minority borrowers. Late last year, the F.H.A. issued its annual report to Congress. According to estimates, over its lifetime the agency will have to pay more out on the mortgages it has insured than it has taken in. The report estimated the potential shortfall at $16 billion, which is a lot in absolute terms, but minuscule in relation to the federal budget and the $1.1 trillion F.H.A. portfolio.
Despite these modest numbers (more on that below), the same crew that assailed the government's role in the housing bubble is now rending its garments about the F.H.A. Critics, like Edward J. Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute, argue that the agency has not only failed to help low-income communities, but is actually destroying them with reckless loans.
Next month, we may end up doing it all again, when the Office of Management and Budget issues its analysis of the agency's finances, using a different methodology.
So is the F.H.A. in trouble and in need of an imminent bailout?
ANALYSIS AIR DATE: Jan. 13, 2012
Records: Federal Reserve Officials Foresaw, Joked About Housing Bubble in 2006
Newly released transcripts from the Federal Reserve's 2006 meetings reveal the extent of what Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues actually knew as the country was about to hit the cusp of the financial crisis. Ray Suarez discusses the board's detailed conversations with The New York Times' Binyamin Appelbaum.
It's juvenile to think that these bankers "couldn't see it coming."
Saw it coming? They created it! They knew exactly what they were doing.
The Federal Reserve is allowed to lie to the American people aren't they?
…history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.
– Alan Greenspan, Jackson Hole Speech, August 26, 2005
Fed Members Laughed As Housing Bubble Grew
Published: Monday, 30 Jan 2012 | 7:04 PM ET
By: John Melloy
It was good times at the Federal Reserve five years ago: Low interest rates instituted by then-Fed Chief Alan Greenspan had housing prices booming, the stock market was rising and Fed members were—literally—laughing their way to the…well, central bank.
History shows they may have been laughing a bit too hard.
In what may be the strangest market indicator ever, a blogger found that the amount of laughter recorded in the official transcripts of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings from 2000 to 2006 correlates almost perfectly with the rise in housing prices taking place at the time.
the amount of laughter recorded in the official transcripts of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings from 2000 to 2006 correlates almost perfectly with the rise in housing prices taking place at the time.
The laugher curve?
ft dot com
January 14, 2011 10:37 pm
Fed misread housing risks, minutes show
By Robin Harding in Washington
The Federal Reserve spotted most of the issues that would cause the 2007-08 crisis in a discussion on the housing market in mid-2005, according to a newly released transcript of the meeting.
Members of the Fed's rate-setting open market committee discussed a possible bubble in house prices, the growing role of unconventional mortgages, and how the use of securitisation was leading to low-quality lending. But they decided that they either could not or should not do anything about it.
"Our story basically is that we're worried about valuations in the housing market, but we don't necessarily see that as having profound consequences for your policy going forward," a Fed staff economist, David Stockton, told the FOMC during its June 2005 meeting.
The transcript makes clear that the housing crash did not catch the Fed by surprise, but that it seriously underestimated the consequences of falling house prices and the danger to the financial system.
The Fed publishes full transcripts of FOMC meetings with a five-year lag. In June 2005 committee members requested a full-day discussion of the rapid rise in house prices that was then under way.
During the meeting Fed staff told the FOMC that housing seemed to be overvalued by about 20 per cent, based on price-to-rent ratios, but they played down the role of aggressive mortgages such as interest-only loans, and said that monetary policy could respond effectively to a house price slump.
"In the event of a sharp drop in housing prices, the odds of a spillover to financial institutions seem limited," said Michael Moskow, then president of the Chicago Fed, who said the staff research made him "somewhat less concerned about the size and consequences of a housing bubble".
"The transcript makes clear that the housing crash did not catch the Fed by surprise, but that it seriously underestimated the consequences of falling house prices and the danger to the financial system."
Underestimated Joe Sixpack's ethical shift to pugnacious squatter?
BUSTED: Unsealed Docs Show The Fed Was Fully Warned Of A Housing Crisis
Gregory White | Jan. 15, 2011, 11:22 AM
New minutes released today show Fed members were fully aware of the growing housing bubble in the U.S. in June of 2005.
The materials include several presentations made on the subject of the emerging housing bubble in the U.S. economy. They have titles like "Is Housing Overvalued?" by Joshua Gallin and "Monetary Policy Implications of a House Price Bubble" by John C. Williams of the San Francisco Fed.
In October of 2005, future Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he didn't think we were in a housing bubble. Bernanke was not at the June 2005 meeting, having recently become Chairman of President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.
The FBI also reported and increase in mortgage fraud in roughly that same time, but was directed by the DOJ to focus on terrorism and ignore the fraud.
Inside the Fed in 2006: A Coming Crisis, and Banter
U.S. Federal Reserve, via Reuters
A Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 28, 2006.
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
Published: January 12, 2012
WASHINGTON — As the housing bubble entered its waning hours in 2006, top Federal Reserve officials marveled at the desperate antics of home builders seeking to lure buyers.
The officials laughed about the cars that builders were offering as signing bonuses, and about efforts to make empty homes look occupied. They joked about one builder who said that inventory was "rising through the roof."
But the officials, meeting every six weeks to discuss the health of the nation's economy, gave little credence to the possibility that the faltering housing market would weigh on the broader economy, according to transcripts that the Fed released Thursday. Instead they continued to tell one another throughout 2006 that the greatest danger was inflation — the possibility that the economy would grow too fast.
"We think the fundamentals of the expansion going forward still look good," Timothy F. Geithner, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told his colleagues when they gathered in Washington in December 2006.
Some officials, including Susan Bies, a Fed governor, suggested that a housing downturn actually could bolster the economy by redirecting money to other kinds of investments.
And there was general acclaim for Alan Greenspan, who stepped down as chairman at the beginning of the year, for presiding over one of the longest economic expansions in the nation's history. Mr. Geithner suggested that Mr. Greenspan's greatness still was not fully appreciated, an opinion now held by a much smaller number of people.
Meanwhile, by the end of 2006, the economy already was shrinking by at least one important measure, total income. And by the end of the next year, the Fed had started its desperate struggle to prevent the collapse of the financial system and to avert the onset of what could have been the nation's first full-fledged depression in about 70 years.
The transcripts of the 2006 meetings, released after a standard five-year delay, clearly show some of the nation's pre-eminent economic minds did not fully understand the basic mechanics of the economy that they were charged with shepherding. The problem was not a lack of information; it was a lack of comprehension, born in part of their deep confidence in economic forecasting models that turned out to be broken.
"It's embarrassing for the Fed," said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Pennsylvania. "You see an awareness that the housing market is starting to crumble, and you see a lack of awareness of the connection between the housing market and financial markets."
"It's also embarrassing for economics," he continued. "My strong guess is that if we had a transcript of any other economist, there would be at least as much fodder."
"My strong guess is that if we had a transcript of any other economist, there would be at least as much fodder."
And yet, the HBB was full of very prescient predictions back in 2005 and 2006.
In my fantasy world a generation or two from now, some young upstart economics historian studies that record…
Foreclosed homeowner arrested in Martin County fire that critically injured firefighter
Posted by Scott T. Smith / CBS12 News
Friday, January 25 2013, 12:57 PM EST
MARTIN COUNTY, Fla. — The man who Martin County sheriff's deputies say set his own house on fire — a blaze that critically injured a firefighter — goes before a judge for the first time Friday.
Joseph Haas was just arrested for setting his house on fire. It was in foreclosure and police say he wanted to burn it down before the bank could take it.
Haas is now facing arson and grand theft charges. He's being held on $1 million bond. If he is convicted on all charges he faces 50 years behind bars.
The firefighter injured in the fire, Jahwann McIntyre, is still recovering after surgery. He's expected to stay in the hospital for several more months. He suffered severe burns on 40 percent of his body.Foreclosed homeowner arrested in Martin County fire that critically injured firefighter
http://www.cbs12.com/news/top-stories/stories/vid_4725.shtml - -
It's morons like this that make the world a dangerous place.
1 month? He`s not a squatter, he`s a dinner guest.
Eviction notice for Boca Raton mansion squatter
Posted by Miranda Grossman / CBS12 News
Friday, January 25 2013, 11:16 PM EST
BOCA RATON, Fla. — The party could soon be over for the South Florida squatter living inside the Boca Raton mansion. CBS12 has been knocking on the door, ringing the door bell, but no one has answered. But because of recently filed paperwork, this squatter is going to have to answer soon.
The eviction paperwork is signed. Andre Barbosa's month-long, rent-free ride is almost over. His neighbors are relieved. But will always have an interesting story to tell about the time Andre the squatter took over someone else's $2.5 million mansion.
"Boca becomes a magnet for this odd behavior."
"If you can beat the bank. I say go for it."
The stunt at 580 Golden Harbour drive is getting national attention. Lynn Cherepy said he's happy news crews are in the neighborhood.
"Covering the story is going to let other neighborhoods, other cities know that this is possible," said Cherepy.
At first, police couldn't do anything because of an obscure Florida law called 'adverse possession.' Real estate attorneys says the law allows someone to move into an empty home and claim the title. The squatter needs to stay for seven years, pay the property taxes, and hope that the owner forgets about the home. In this case, it only worked for one month.
Bank of America owns the foreclosed house, and now they filed paperwork to take back what is theirs.
Signs that were posted on the windows before have since been taken down. The only logical explanation is that somebody with access to the house has been inside to take it down.
Real estate attorneys say it appears Bank of America is trying to evict Andre civilly instead of pressing criminal charges. That could take a few days because just like any eviction, Andre will have the opportunity to respond.Eviction notice for Boca Raton mansion squatter
http://www.cbs12.com/news/top-stories/stories/vid_4745.shtml -
Anonymous hacks US Sentencing Commission, distributes files
Hacktivist group Anonymous took control of the U.S. Sentencing Commission website Friday, January 25 in a new campaign called "Operation Last Resort."
The first attack on the website was early Friday morning. The second - successful - attack came around 9pm PST that evening.
By 3am PST ussc.gov was down (it has since been dropped from the DNS), yet as of this writing the IP address (188.8.131.52) still returns the defaced site's contents.
The head of SF Housing Authority is stepping down. He's facing three lawsuits from employees for abuse / discrimination. HUD provides much of the funding for SFHA. Of course we can't look at all at the spending side of the federal budget equation. The problem is taxes are too low. Cut entitlement spending and the sky will fall. Look at the pay package.
Pay, car, benefits
Alvarez makes $210,500 annually and receives a car and seven weeks off each year of combined vacation and sick leave. The Housing Authority also covers his pension contributions and his dental, vision and health care benefits.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/S-F-Housing-Authority-chief-heads-for-door-4225254.php#ixzz2J6C4u1bA
"Alvarez makes $210,500 annually and receives a car and seven weeks off each year of combined vacation and sick leave. The Housing Authority also covers his pension contributions and his dental, vision and health care benefits."
"Sara Shortt, director of the city's Housing Rights Committee, which advocates for low-income tenants, said the agency has deteriorated significantly since Alvarez took the helm in 2008. She said tenants, service providers, city staff and others struggled to get the simplest questions answered - or the simplest repairs made."
"The agency has become increasingly dysfunctional, chaotic and in constant confusion and flux," she said. "I don't think we even know half of the frustrations and difficulties people have had in dealing with the agency, because a huge group of folks just gave up."
Golf clap.
FWIW, that's a typical salary for mid level management in Corporate America. Actually, 200K is low, from what I heard at HP, most mid level types got 300K+ and bonuses.
The dudes this happens to down here always have messed up faces and resisting arrest among their charges when they appear in the online booking blotter.
You Tube video emerges of Bridgeport police stomping suspect …
http://www.ctpolitix.com/you-tube-video-emerges-of-bridgeport-police-stomping-subject/ - -
If the suspect would stop yelping each time they kicked him maybe the police would lose interest and just toss him in the back of the car.
He sure looks like a terrorist to me.
One of my predictions for the New Year was that Iraq was going to come apart due to the Sunni/Shiite split. I thought it would occur after Assad fell but it is well on its way even before that occurs. To the degree Google helped create the Arab Spring it has done evil. That is the hard part of life deciding what is doing good. Do you think that the medical people that saved Hitler's life when he was gassed during WWI ever regretted that decision?
How this varies from just the terrorists attacks against Shiites, is that we have gone beyond Al Queda terrorists to the Sunni tribal leaders. We made progress during the surge due to our ability to get these Sunni leaders to support the Iraqi government. They now seem to be switching to support a revolt against the government. Iraq has once again become a major exporter of oil which is now threaten. If this is not a black swan it is a least a brown swan and has the potential to have a severe economic impact on the world.
What? Difficulties in Bush's plan to "bring democracy" to Iraq were pointed out over 10 years ago. This is not a swan event, but something experts knew would be the probable outcome(and the exact same thing that happened back in the 1920s).
The "progress" happened because of the money we paid the Sunni leaders.
The only reason Saddam was able to meld all the tribes into a nation state was through an iron glove(see Yugoslavia).
Iraq should be split up into at least 3 different countries.
The timing is the brown swan event. I do not see anyone that had factored Iraqi instability this year into their oil projections. if you have seen anyone I wish you would share it. BTW, the Sunnis will never accept such a split since it will leave them without oil. Which is why the Biden plan never made any sense.
Illinois seems to have run out of OPM:
Anonymous said:
January 26, 2013 at 11:33 AM
Sell our whole d@mn state to the Chinese, then erect a wall around it and be done with it.
Anonymous said:
January 26, 2013 at 11:35 AM
Anonymous said:
January 26, 2013 at 11:36 AM
LOL, they reap what they sow. People need to wake up to all the political corruption, cronyism, progressive group think, and get real. Half the country has a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" it seems… (look it up.)
Anonymous said:
January 26, 2013 at 11:38 AM
Don't worry…Be Happy! Barack..has a plan, and its from our Uncle Sam! …its called print more money, stir up inflation and tax all the other rich folks behind those trees(except for you and me) , spread the misery and move on.When the House of Cards does finally fall, don't worry…because there will be nothing left to worry about! Oh by the way…Godfather Rahm..velly clever on the pension thing..yeah let those dummies in all the other states pick up that tab.
Emanuel To Banks: Stop Supporting Gun Makers
January 25, 2013 9:28 AM
CHICAGO (CBS) — Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is putting more pressure on gun makers to get behind his push for an assault weapons ban and criminal background checks for gun purchasers.
This time, he wants to go after their bottom line.
Emanuel is pushing two major financial institutions to stop their financial backing of gun makers, unless those companies support "commonsense reforms, including requiring criminal background checks on all gun sales."
The mayor is urging that banks to stop lines of credit, financing for acquisitions and expansions and financial advising.
In a letter sent Friday to the CEOs of Bank Of America and TD Bank, Emanuel said: "In the past, the gun industry has stood in opposition to these safety measures. They opposed a ban on assault weapons on America's streets, opposed a ban on military-style clips, opposed a criminal background check on all gun purchases and opposed any effort to crack down on criminal gun traffickers."
In the letter, Emanuel says TD Bank offers a $60 million line of credit to Smith & Wesson, which produces the AR-15. That is the weapon used by James Holmes in the Aurora, Colo., theater massacre that killed 12 people. Emanuel wrote.
Emanuel told CEO Bharat Masrani "to use your influence to push this company to find common ground" on an assault weapons ban and gun background checks.
In a separate letter, Emanuel urged Bank Of America CEO Brian T. Moynihan to do the same thing with Sturm, Ruger & Co., which has a $25 million line of credit with the bank.
"Collectively we can send a clear and unambiguous message to the entire gun industry that investors will no longer financially support companies that support gun violence," Emanuel wrote.
Last week, Emanuel ordered a portfolio analysis from the five pension and retirement funds for Chicago employees to determine if fund managers hold financial interests in companies that manufacture or sell assault weapons.
This week, the Chicago Municipal Employees Annuity and Benefit Fund (MEABF) board voted to divest more than $1 million from three companies that manufacture assault weapons – Freedom Group, Smith and Wesson and Sturm Ruger.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/01/25/emanuel-to-banks-stop-supporting-gun-makers/ -
That is really going to solve the problem of over 500 homicides in Chicago last year. I haven't seen where assault weapons have been the gun of choice for the gang members to shoot other gang members.
But, since the vast majority of the homicides are blacks killing fellow blacks, no one need for the President or Mayor Rahm to be bothered or make public that little detail.
Good news, Futters finally shipped my order albeit two weeks late. Still tastes great; I hope they pull through. Fingers crossed!
That is good futtin news.
Reverse drive-by shooting in Akron
Wylene Edwards, 59, was driving near her home Thursday night with her hazard lights flashing as snow blanketed the city.
As she approached East Tallmadge Avenue on Elma Street, Edwards said, she came upon two men walking in the middle of the road.
Edwards said she turned on her high beams so they would move out of the way.
"I would think the natural inclination would be to get out of the middle of the road," Edwards said. "Who wants to get hit by 2 tons of steel?"
The two men stepped to the side of the road, Edwards said. Then as she drove past, shots rang out.
"You immediately get this stabbing, throbbing sensation," she said.
The first bullet is still lodged in her left shoulder as surgeons decide how to remove it since it is close to an artery.
The second bullet left a bruise on the back of her left shoulder. A third bullet shattered her windshield.
As blood ran down her back and the pain intensified, Edwards said, she drove to the Italian Center on Tallmadge Avenue.
Staff and patrons at the Thursday night spaghetti dinner at the club helped her inside and phoned police and an ambulance. They also called Edwards' daughter, Ashanti, who along with other family members rushed to Summa Akron City Hospital to be by her side.
"We have your mother here and she's been shot," Ashanti said were the first words she heard over the phone.
Police are still investigating the shooting and have no suspects.
"This specific incident is isolated," Akron Police Lt. Rick Edwards said. "It's the first time that someone has been shot at after flashing lights and passing.
Lt. Edwards said the victim couldn't identify the shooters through her snow-covered windshield.
Wylene Edwards said she has traveled the street many times because it is a good shortcut from Tallmadge Avenue to Cuyahoga Falls Avenue.
During the summer, she said it's common to see drivers flash their headlights or beep their horns to disperse people walking in the street.
Edwards said she's not sure why her flashing her lights angered the men.
"I happened to piss him off," she said "And I tell you what, he was a pretty accurate shot.
I drive through this neighborhood a couple of times a week to get to the Akron hackerspace. In warm weather it is usual to see groups of young men (with an rare young woman) walking in the streets. When large amounts of snow have fallen, anyone might be forced into the street - but recent snowfall was nowhere near that amount. Mild to moderate snowfalls usually keep all pedestrians indoors & off the streets. It's not the best neighborhood, but it is one I'll be avoiding in the future.
"Sellers are on the sidelines. Some homeowners have no reason to move. Others aren't motivated because they would take a loss at current prices or they still owe more than their homes are worth."
and millions haven`t made a mortgage payment in 5 years so why would they move.
Where have all the for-sale houses gone?
By Marcie Geffner • Bankrate.com
Homebuyers are back. But they're not finding many for-sale houses to choose from.
This dearth of for-sale homes isn't imaginary. In fact, the pool of properties actually has shrunk in housing markets across the nation.
Only 2.32 million existing homes were available for sale in the U.S. at the end of September 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors. That figure represented a 5.9-month supply of for-sale homes at the September pace of sales. A year earlier, the supply of for-sale homes would have lasted 8.1 months at the then-current pace of sales.
So, what happened to all the houses?
Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors in Los Angeles, and Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Carrington Mortgage Holdings, a mortgage company in Aliso Viejo, Calif., offer some answers.
Sellers are on the sidelines. Some homeowners have no reason to move. Others aren't motivated because they would take a loss at current prices or they still owe more than their homes are worth.
"They're not sure what they want to do," Appleton-Young says.
Rising prices might help those who aren't deeply underwater reach a break-even point. Meantime, negative equity has an unexpectedly positive effect on house prices in markets hardest hit by the housing downturn, according to a recent report from CoreLogic, a real estate data and analytics company in Irvine, Calif. That's because negative equity restricts the number of homes available for sale, and the reduced supply of homes keeps prices from falling further.
Investors are buying houses as rental properties instead of fix-and-flip opportunities. "Typically investors buy, rehab and flip, and that's not happening much because prices are low and demand for rental units is high," Appleton-Young explains.
Well-priced homes are selling fast, reducing the for-sale supply. "If properties aren't priced right, they do sit, so (sellers) have to be realistic. But if it's in the ballpark, it goes quickly," Appleton-Young says.
Even notoriously slow short sales are moving faster due to new rules that are intended to streamline and standardize short sales for homeowners who have mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
The supply of so-called distressed homes has declined due in part to legal snafus in the foreclosure process. Distressed homes include short sales, preforeclosures and bank-owned real estate.
"The robosigning issues and the national mortgage settlement essentially stopped foreclosure procedures in a number of states," Sharga explains.
Banks still own hundreds of thousands of homes, and millions of homeowners are still late or delinquent with their mortgage payments, but those homes aren't on the market and Sharga says that backlog will take time to work through.
Lenders and government agencies are selling distressed loans to servicing companies that are offering homeowners workouts and loan modifications. "A certain number of those loans will never go into foreclosure," Sharga explains. "They'll be modified or short-sold, so that backlog won't all hit the market really ever."
REO properties also are being sold in bulk to investors. The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently announced sales of 970 properties in California, Arizona and Nevada; 699 properties in Florida; and 94 properties in Chicago.
So, what does the tight supply mean for buyers and sellers?
Appleton-Young says sellers need to be wary of overconfidence and recognize that overpriced properties won't sell soon, if at all. Buyers, meanwhile, need to recognize that markets are competitive and that all-cash offers, preferred by sellers, aren't uncommon.
Sharga says patience is a must for buyers.
(hazard says a fountain of youth is a must for buyers)
Read more: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/where-have-for-sale-houses-gone.aspx#ixzz2J7e745EZ
Follow us: @Bankrate on Twitter | Bankrate on Facebook
Leslie is on fire and offers insight that no one else could offer or even see coming:
"Appleton-Young says sellers need to be wary of overconfidence and recognize that overpriced properties won't sell soon, if at all."
"If properties aren't priced right, they do sit, so (sellers) have to be realistic. But if it's in the ballpark, it goes quickly," Appleton-Young says.
Wow I tell you, she is absolutely genius!!
Attack on family in Compton latest incident in wave of anti-black violence
A Latino gang is intimidating blacks into leaving the city that was once an African American enclave. It's part of a violent trend seen in other parts of the L.A. area.
By Sam Quinones, Richard Winton and Joe Mozingo
January 25, 2013, 6:46 p.m.
The trouble began soon after they arrived.
The black family—a mother, three teenage children and a 10-year-old boy—moved into a little yellow home in Compton over Christmas vacation.
When a friend came to visit, four men in a black SUV pulled up and called him a "nigger," saying black people were barred from the neighborhood, according to Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies. They jumped out, drew a gun on him and beat him with metal pipes.
It was just the beginning of what detectives said was a campaign by a Latino street gang to force an African American family to leave.
The attacks on the family are the latest in a series of violent incidents in which Latino gangs targeted blacks in parts of greater Los Angeles over the last decade.
Compton, with a population of about 97,000, was predominantly black for many years. It is now 65% Latino and 33% black, according to the 2010 U.S. census. But it's not only historically black areas that have been targeted.
Federal authorities have alleged in several indictments in the last decade that the Mexican Mafia prison gang has ordered street gangs under its control to attack African Americans. Leaders of the Azusa 13 gang were sentenced to lengthy prison terms earlier this month for leading a policy of attacking African American residents and expelling them from the town.
Similar attacks have taken place in Harbor Gateway, Highland Park, Pacoima, San Bernardino, Canoga Park and Wilmington, among other places. In the Compton case, sheriff's officials say the gang appears to have been acting on its own initiative.
"This family has no gang ties whatsoever," Sheriff's Lt. Richard Westin said. "They are complete innocent victims here."
The 19-year-old family friend managed to break free that first day and run into the house, where the children were the only ones at home.
The attackers left, but a half-hour later a crowd of as many as 20 people stood on the lawn yelling threats and epithets. A beer bottle crashed through the living room window as the youngsters watched in horror.
"They were scared if they called the sheriff they'd be killed," Westin said. "So they called their mom, who called the Sheriff's Department."
The gang members were gone by the time deputies arrived, but they kept coming back, almost daily, driving by slowly until they got someone's attention, then yelling racial insults and telling them to leave. The mother sent the children to live with relatives and is now packing up to leave herself.
"This gang has always made it clear they have a racial hatred for black people," said Westin, who has worked in the area for more than two decades. "They justify in their own sick minds because of their rivalry with the Compton black gangs. They repeatedly used racial epithets, they use racial hatred graffiti and they tag up the black church a lot."
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-0126-compton-20130126,0,977110.story - 215k -
Is the Apple-loving bull growing long in the teeth?
Information technology
Has Apple peaked?
The world's most valuable firm may be past its prime
Jan 26th 2013 | SAN FRANCISCO |From the print edition
TECH blogs are abuzz. Pundits are busy pumping out predictions. The company that makes the new device that is attracting so much attention is teasing reporters by being coy about its innovative features. Apple's product launches are always like this. But this time the fuss is not about an Apple product: it is about Samsung's latest Galaxy smartphone, which is likely to be launched in March.
Stiffer competition in smartphones and tablets from the likes of Samsung has spooked investors in Apple. They got another fright on January 23rd when the firm revealed that its latest quarterly profit of $13 billion was flat because of higher manufacturing costs. That triggered a rout in after-hours trading: at one point some $57 billion was wiped off Apple's market capitalisation, roughly the equivalent of the entire value of Ford, a carmaker.
Apple's shares have been mauled by bears many times before (see chart 1), but they have always recovered. The big question on many investors' minds is whether the firm can rebound again. Two things have whetted the bears' appetites.
First, Steve Jobs, Apple's founder and creative genius, is dead. The iPhones and iPads he sired still generate gargantuan profits. But his successor, Tim Cook, has yet to prove himself capable of bringing new breakthrough products to market. Second, Apple's fantastic profit margins—38.6% on sales of $55 billion—attract competitors like sweetshops attract six-year-olds.
The company's fans pooh-pooh the idea that Apple has peaked. The firm's price-earnings ratio—11.6 at close of business on January 23rd—is not much different from Microsoft's (see chart 2). That makes Apple's shares look relatively sexy. Unlike Microsoft, which depends heavily on the ailing personal-computer business, Apple concentrates on sectors that are growing fast, such as smartphones and tablets. Only one of 60 analysts tracked by Bloomberg had a "sell" recommendation on Apple before this week's stockmarket fallout.
My real estate agent told me to borrow all the money I could not afford to pay back and buy Apple stock at $700. He told me $800 was "in the bag".
I think the current bubble is in ammunition. Just the mention of change in the gun laws has made it impossible to find in the store. .22 LR is even gone.
Not there for work: Connecticut's disappearing labor force
Rob Varnon
Published 12:34 am, Saturday, January 26, 2013
Donald Klepper-Smith, chief economist of New Haven-based Data Core Partners, said the number of people actively engaged in the work force in Connecticut, defined as those who are working or looking for work, fell 51,000, or 2.68 percent in 2012, the largest drop in the nation.
"We're moving in the wrong direction, and we're moving there fast," Klepper-Smith said of the chart he produced using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
In December, the state's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percent to 8.8 percent despite losing 1,800 jobs. The reason the unemployment rate fell was because there were fewer people in the labor force, not because there were more jobs.
http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Not-there-for-work-Connecticut-s-disappearing-4225211.php -
Interesting thing if you go to http://www.finance.yahoo and plot the graph of the S&P 500 from 1994 to present. You see three peaks: One at the year 2000, one in 2008 or so, and one now.
Colleague at work discussed technical indicators of unemployment versus the S&P. Looks like November 2012 was the potential to dip back into a 2009-style recession.
Perhaps the stock bear market will be postponed a couple years and this time the S&P 500 index will go higher than 2000 and 2008. At some point we say interest rates will return with a vengeance. This is why I still like adding to T-bills A 60% allocation in equities is not really so scary. But a couple months ago my allocation was 57.5% and I'm now pondering selling off some of my 401k stock funds and moving them to the most conservative fund in the 401k.
"One at the year 2000, one in 2008 or so, and one now."
What happens next depends on an unpredictable combination of labor market improvement, growing inflation expectations, and near-term decline in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates.
But a likely scenario is a third parabolic bubble-style blowout in stock prices like we had in 2000 and again in 2008, accompanied by rising long-term interest rates. Those who successfully dump stocks for long-term Treasurys before the next crash will make out like bandits. Mom and Pop investor in flyover country who follow suit by moving back into stocks will be left holding the bag when stocks go into their next bear market (same old story, different dates). The wild card is a possible escalation of QE-to-infinity, but increasing fears of future inflation may tie the Fed's hands.
I feel like we are right at the very moment in this market cycle when Wall Street convinces the suckers on Main Street that it is safe to get back into the stock market.
Caveat emptor.
January 25, 2013
10 dividend stocks to ride out the bond squeeze
Photo: Getty Images
With bond valuations getting squeezed as the Federal Reserve keeps rates near zero, fixed-income yields have fallen under a considerable amount of pressure. Also, total returns for many corporate bonds risk not exceeding their coupon payments this year. So where should investors go hunting for yield outside of fixed income? Electric utilities, natural-gas-infrastructure companies, and real-estate investment trusts are good low-risk candidates, according to a recent report from Barclays. "Since QE2 began in November 2010, cyclical sector P/Es have contracted while defensive sector multiples have expanded," Barclays wrote in the note. "In our view, this trend will persist until the Fed begins the normalization process, creating an accommodative environment for equity income." Of the firm's many suggestions, MarketWatch picked the 10 largest by market cap.
— Wallace Witkowski
In 2000, there was clearly a bubble in Tech. This manifested itself in part as a stock market high.
In 2008, there was clearly the end of a bubble in housing. This manifested itself in part as a stock market high.
In 2013, there IS clearly a bubble in treasuries. The bubble has led to cheaper financing, and a move into "risk" assets. Will the popping of the bubble in treasuries lead to a collapse in the stock market? Or a flattening? Low interest rates have allowed many to PERMANENTLY fix their cost of borrowing at a lower rate…when the bubble bursts, this low cost of financing will persist.
"Will the popping of the bubble in treasuries lead to a collapse in the stock market?"
I seem to recall the October 19, 1987 Black Monday Wall Street crash was preceded by a spring crash in long-term bonds.
Of course this time is different.
Can you explain the 87 stock market crash?
By The-Adviser.com - Sunday, 1/27/13
New York - On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial average declined 22.6% in the largest single-day drop in history. Black Monday, as it has become known, was almost twice as bad as the stock market crash of of October 29, 1929 . The 1929 decline approximated 11.7% and started the Great Depression.
The Securities Exchange Commission, academic professors, financial writers and every financial security firm has analyzed the stock market crash of 1987 in about every way possible. Some believe the market crash was caused by an irrational behavior on the part of investors. Some analysts believe that excessive stock prices and computerized trading were the cause. The key finding is that no single news event occurred that could account for the crash.
The stock market was doing quite well for the first nine months of 1987. It was up more than 30%, reaching unprecedented heights. That was after two consecutive years of gains exceeding 20%. By 1997, interest rates began to climb. Three days before Black Monday, the stock market gains for the year dropped by 11.6%, including the effects of a 9.5% drop on October 16, 1987.
The three day drop was caused be several macroeconomic factors. Long-term bond yields that has started 1987 at 7.6% climbed to approximately 10%. This offered a lucrative alternative to stocks for investors looking for yield. The merchandise trade deficit soared and the value of the U.S. dollar began to decline. After a speech by Treasury Secretary Jim Baker, investors began to fear that the weak US dollar would cause further inflation.
By "a bubble in treasuries," of course you must be referring to five year notes, ten year notes, or bonds, but not T-bills.
You put money in T-bills not caring about what yield you get. You put in $2997 in a 52-week T-bill and you get $3,000 in a year.
I still am not convinced T-bills are not safe. They are as safe as the USD. Of course you lose with inflation. But that's why you also need to regularly buy gold or silver.


text: ChEssBase (CoML) Dataset homepage Citation Ocean Biogeographic Information System. ChEssBase (CoML). Occurrence dataset https://doi.org/10.15468/tuyewo accessed via GBIF.org on 2018-12-12. Description ChEssBase: a central source of online information for species from deep-water chemosynthetic ecosystems. Eva Ramirez-Llodra, Maria Blanco National Oceanography Centre Southampton, European Way, SO14 3ZH Southampton, UK firstname.lastname@example.com ChEssBase is a dynamic relational database available online since early 2005 (http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/chess/database/database.html). The aim of ChEssBase is to provide taxonomical, biological, ecological and distributional data for all species described from deep-water chemosynthetic ecosystems, as well as information on available samples, images, bibliography and information on the habitats. These habitats include hydrothermal vents, cold seeps, whale falls, sunken wood and areas of minimum oxygen that intersect with the continental margin or seamounts. Since the discovery of hydrothermal vents in 1977 and of cold seep communities in 1984, over 590 species from vents and over 230 species from seeps have been described (Van Dover et al., 2002. Science 295: 1253-1257). Chemosynthetically fuelled communities have now also been found on large organic falls to the deep-sea floor such as whale falls and sunken wood, as well as on benthic zones of oxygen minimum. The data gathered in the last 30 years has shown that some species are shared amongst these ecosystems and our knowledge of their phylogeography improves with every new discovery. New species are continuously being discovered and described from research programmes around the globe and therefore ChEssBase is in active development and new data are being entered regularly. At present, ChEssBase includes data on 806 species and 432 genera from 76 chemosynthetic sites around the globe. These data contain information (when available) on the taxonomy, morphology, trophic level, reproduction, endemicity, habitat type and distribution. There are now 954 papers in our reference database. The first version of ChEssBase was available online in early 2005. In summer 2005, ChEssBase and the InterRidge biological database (www.interridge.org) were fused into a single source of information for biological data from chemosynthetic ecosystems (Ramirez-Llodra et al., 2005 IR News, 14). This second version of ChEssBase is available online since August 2005, with new records as well as new search and download options. Since December 2005, ChEssBase is integrated in the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS, www.iobis.org). Taxonomic Coverages Geographic Coverages Bibliographic Citations Contacts


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Left Behind Games is a small video game publisher (LFBG.OB) which went public in a reverse merger in February, 2006. It has one asset, the exclusive license to the massively popular, Christian-themed, Left Behind book series, and its initial PC game will ship November 7. So how would one value a start-up company with a possibly strong license, $12M in negative shareholder equity and no track record of delivering top-selling product?
Apparently, the public markets should value a company like this at an astonishing $128M! That truly takes a holy man to understand, especially the 20% rise in the stock today. Let's pretend the game sells 100K units or even 200K, which would constitute a good hit - that would give it $2.5-5M in revenue for 2007, valuing it at 25X Revenue, or 6 times higher than any other public game company. Even more amusing is that the company just sold 3.8M shares in a private offering for $1.50 a share, yet the stock is now at $7.21, 2 weeks after it closed the offering. And I forgot - there has never been a successful religious-themed video game.
So unless you consider this to be a donation, I would avoid this stock like the plague at current valuations. It's possible Left Behind creates a monstrous hit like Mel Gibson did with the movie Passion of Christ, but it's about as likely as hitting the lottery at this price.


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Recent Posts
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Category Archives: About Us
Music & Social Change
Posted on September 23, 2010 by Marilyn Jackson
This blog has been started by Drs. Cynthia Lawrence and Marilyn Jackson of the Western Institute for Social Research. It is about songs and music that are inspiring and motivational for social change and social change movements. We are starting … Continue reading →
Posted in About Us, Labor, Music & Social Change | 3 Comments


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(Reuters) - U.S. agricultural giant Bunge Ltd (BG.N) said on Wednesday it would reshuffle its business structure from five operating units to three regions - North America, South America, and Europe and Asia.
Todd Bastean will be president of North America, Pierre Mauger for Europe and Asia, and Raul Padilla will head South America and Sugar and Bioenergy, Bunge said.
The appointments are effective Jan. 1 and the three executives will report to Chief Executive Soren Schroder, Bunge said.
Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza


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Slipping www.okyoo.us into this chair can feel like heaven. As being the name suggests, this chair will give you true relaxation due to be able to its superior technology and great building. Inside the backrest usually are 8 massage points. These massage points guarantee a ready-made massage of your body from top toe. You'll be left sensation relaxed and invigorated willing to face each day's difficulties prepared.
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A zero gravity design is incorporated into your chair. This leaves people relaxed both physically and also mentally. It is one of the better zero gravity massage chair.
Adjusting the head/ to come back and leg elevations can't become done independently. This is annoying thinking about other massage chairs available on the market can do this using relative ease.
Assembling different sections www.okyoo.us/acme-recliners.html together can be difficult. On top of these, the assembly video is merely sent to you when you finally request it from the corporation.
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Since shipping is completed separately some parts find themselves missing.
The cons of this chair are pale in comparison with its advantages. Having mentioned this, I would counsel you to purchase the massage chair.
BEST DEAL ONLINE: Shiatsu Real Relax 100 % Body Zero Gravity Shiatsu massage chair.


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Barack and the 008 Movement
Last night, Saturday, April 28, 2007, presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama, spoke in front of a crowd of roughly , a large number of whom where below the age of 35. Industry insiders and hipster politicos were among the crowd entertained by Cedric the Entertainer, who introduced the Senator.
Standing behind the stage where Senator Obama was to speak, I looked up to see Cedric the Entertainer enter so that he could warm up the crowd and introduce Barack. That Mr. the Entertainer is a funny man.
The Senator spoke for about 20 minutes, galvanizing the crowd with his booming voice harking me back to growing up in the Baptist churches of Louisiana. The man should have been a preacher. He spoke of the nation's need for a universal health care plan, how, when he moved to Chicago, no one could pronounce his name correctly, the current administration's dreadful foreign policy, the desire to help curb our nation's actions in destroying the environment and our dependency on foreign oil. He talked about his recent trip to Selma, Alabama and the 42nd anniversary of the march there, his ability to unite crowds by showing that events and identities America tends to seperate and classify into different groups can all be identified as one unit. Someone related to his story of the visit to Selma by saying how wonderful an experience it must have been to have been in touch with such a great event in African-American history. Obama replied to the person saying that it wasn't African-American history, it was American history.
I almost cried several times during the speech. Then I almost cried again when I saw Kate Walsh (Dr. Addison Shepard on Grey's Anatomy) standing directly behind me because I knew at that moment I would never be that hot. There were quite a few celebrities at the event, most of whom were African-American. The Senator's Harvard Law School classmate, Hill Harper, Gabrielle Union, Henry Simmons, Eric LaSalle, Lawrence Bender. I believe I saw Sanaa Lathan and supposedly, Oliver Stone was there, as well.
I spoke with one of the producers of the event, who works with 008 The Movement, and was told that there will be many more events to come, in an effort to reach out to younger voters, in the LA area.
All in all, a great event. An opportunity to see someone of Mr. Obama's stature do what he does best.
Here are some really short and not so great videos I took with my roommates digital camera.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
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Welcome to my new blog which will chronicle my adventures in homebrewing. I have chosen to name my venture The Humarock Homebrewing Company as an homage to my family's favorite vacation spot. As you may already guess, many of my homebrews will derive their name from the area and its history, as well as our family's memories of our yearly vacation at the beach.
Hope you enjoy!


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Wild Boar, Forest of Dean, originally uploaded by Ben909.
Finally, I got to see some of this years piglets! 🙂 Unfortunately, they were so small they barely show up on any of the photos, but they were a treat to see. (click on the photo for a poor photo of one).
Unlike the non-native fallow deer who are currently enjoying the benefits of a closed season on shooting, the native (albeit long extinct until recent years) wild boar do not enjoy this luxury. Whilst they are busy trying to look after their young, the Forestry Commission is continuing to shoot them. In the past two weeks I've found plenty evidence that the boar are being shot at this important time. There seems to still be a policy of reducing the population, even though the population is very much unknown.
This photo shows one of the sows. The sounder consisted of two sows and something like 8-10 piglets. There's almost certainly one behind the tree or the grass in this shot, but they're so small that most of the time they were hidden. This particular sow is shown here trotting towards the camera for a closer look at what's going on (poor eyesight). Soon afterwards, she turned back to the group and headed off.


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I'm not Duuude, I'm Fun GuyThis is the premiere, profuse and vibrate-able anal plug. Its classic design is pleasurable, challenging, and bombproof. It is the natural leader of its pack. It is a Lion. The King of the jungle. There are bigger, stranger things out there. But they will remain in the bottom of the drawer, and this will remain on the top.
Big, high quality craftsmanship, hole for vibrator (included), unique silver color.
Too big for some.
Quite simply this toy is an Anal Plug. That's it, that's all. It does have bullet hole in the bottom so you can make it a vibrating butt plug and has a large anal safe base. What more could you ask for? It is definitely more for the cool kids in the advanced crowd, as it may leave a beginner with a broken heart, or butt.
Material / Texture
Made out of body safe silicone it has no smell or taste. It is smooth skinned and colored a marbleized silver. I was surprised and pleased that its density was softer than I'd anticipated. It's just on the rare side of medium. Between its plush body and slippery exterior it makes it a pleasure to tackle.
Design / Shape / Size
The design is nothing spectacular at first glance, just a run of the mill butt plug. However, in person it commands respect. It's a confident and impeccably crafted plug, a real showpiece. The size is large and best enjoyed by the advanced. Additionally, its size makes it not the most ideal travel toy. It has a comfortable base with a hole in it for the included vibrator, which makes a nice reward for when you get Fun Guy in you.
This performs great. It is a big, high quality, vibrating Butt Plug. And the best thing about this toy is that it is and does exactly what it's supposed to. The transition from bell to stem can be a bit abrupt, but that said, I have no complaints. And it was a real treat to use a Crystal high intensity bullet in it, as the Vibe it comes with is only average. The overall pressure of the toy, as well as the vibrations were pleasing to my prostate. Not a finisher. But it will get you going.
Care and Maintenance
As with any silicone toy only use water based lubes. For cleaning simply throw it in boiling water for 3-5 minutes, dunk it in a light bleach solution, or throw it in the dishwasher.
It came in a simple heavy duty plastic bag, attached with a cardboard info piece across the opening.
Personal comments
The neck of the toy is hollow to accommodate the vibe. It is noticeably squishier without the vibe inserted and makes for a nice perch to catch your breath.
I was actually surprised by this toy. I figured I had it covered and could spend a few minutes with it, make a few passes and conquer it. I was wrong. Coming right to the brink, I couldn't do it without inflicting damage. So I had to abort. Backpedaling to some medium size toys which at this point slipped into me like I was hot butter. But it was no use, I'd cooked my goose, and was feeling to tender to rematch the old fun guy.
Not to worry a few days later with a proper warm up my girlfriend eased it in. As I felt myself cave, taking it in fully, all I could do was groan, filled by the ecstatic agony of my butthole, "Duuude...".
Not to worry a few days later with a proper warm up my girlfriend eased it in. As I felt myself cave, taking it in fully, all I could do was groan, filled by the ecstatic agony of my butthole, "Duuude...".
This product was provided free of charge to the reviewer. This review is in compliance with the FTC guidelines.
Thanks for the review
great review!
Someone was asking about good bullets.Sound like the crystal high intensity is a good replacement one. Thanks for the info!
Great review!
Good review, thanks!!
Thanks for the great review! You had a good narrative there, though I wish you'd expanded a little bit more on some parts...
Great review. Sounds like a fun toy.
Nice review, thank you.
Nice job, thanks!
Great review
Thanks for the info.
thanks for the review, i'm looking for a bigger plug like this
Thanks for the review
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To Make a Mirror by Sofia Colvin
CUS: What was the inspiration behind your project "To Make a Mirror"?
Sofia Colvin: I am drawn to rocks, minerals and expanse. I also shoot fashion, by scouting locations online and designing garments based off these landscapes- I am able to combine both unique locations and fashion. To Make a Mirror is a combination of everything I love and a true journey to produce, design, travel, photograph and edit. I love reconnecting with the earth after living in the city for so long. Being able to go to these locations allows me to re-center myself.
CUS: Can you elaborate on your process - did you choose locations and then construct garments to reflect/converse with the landscape or vice versa?
SC: I research places around the world online and once I find a vast, minimal, location with a nice palette I then design the garments. The location/ landscape always informs the clothing for each photograph.
CUS: How did you decide on the locations for this project?
SC: I honestly never know how to answer this question. There's an attraction that occurs when I come across these environments. I always try to find a place that has a simplicity and elegance to it. Clean, and has a certain range of colors and tones to the landscape.
CUS: Are you constructing these garments yourself or are you collaborating with designers?
SC: I have no skill to construct clothing/ garments. I am able to clearly visualize myself in these landscapes dressed in the custom clothing. Each location has a different process and set of rules to create the garments. The Moss location was easy because I knew exactly what I wanted to be wearing. I sketched and then spoke with artist Leah Targon and she was able to calculate how to get the skirt to hold its shape etc… With the sand dune spot, Olivia Le Blanc and I worked together to come up with the jacket shape and color. Each shoot is approached slightly different based on how I visualize myself in the environment.
CUS: Would you consider this a primarily fashion-based project or a photography-based project? (Or neither?)
SC: I am not sure how to classify it. I am a photographer first, and the clothing was just a piece in the puzzle to create the work as a whole.
CUS: Where are the garments now?
SC: The garments are in my closet. Hanging artifacts from the shoots haha.
CUS: Tell us about the group show you participated in at Milk Gallery in New York back in May.
SC: I was showing at Milk Gallery this past May as part of the Parsons photography show. I had two 36x24 photographs printed and framed. The show had a range of work and it was really refreshing to have the work alongside the other artists, working in various visual mediums.
CUS: What can you tell us about your accompanying book?
SC: Along with the framed work I had a book with over 25 images at the show. (I am selling a few limited edition copies as well) It is hardcover and there is writing about the work in the book!
CUS: Can you tell us about any upcoming projects or events?
SC: As of now, I am doing freelance work in New York City. I am always looking to work with brands and companies, as well as stylists and other creatives. I am also dreaming up new projects in vast, terrestrial locations.
Sofia Colvin, based in NYC.
Project Statement: I have to conform. Nature is indifferent to suffering, yet I turn to it for answers that I may not receive. I must seek them myself. To Make A Mirror is a photography series that explore the self and environments that represent the otherworldly, incomparable and sublime. By designing and having garments constructed for each location, I bridge the gap between the natural world and fashion. I do not venture into these landscapes in search of civilization, but to take a moment for myself, a quiet, meditative time to reflect and understand my role. By blending into the environments I vanish just as I ask to be looked at.


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Have you seen our new Jot Kids Mood Board?
You can check it out here. It's gorgeous isn't it!
Have you created your Lego masterpiece yet? These Jot Kids have.. look what they've been making..
Well done Katie.. a gorgeous Project Life spread!!!
Bella & Brooke
Mardi's gorgeous granddaughters have been busy.. Mardi says, "Well its been Lego day here at 'Nans'… I have to put it out there now Lauren.. the Lego collection at Nans is not modern…its Lego that belonged to their Dad..Uncle and Aunt….and its limited. However… even with a limited Lego selection they had a lot of fun making both their Lego creations…and their layouts."
Here's six year old Bella, mid creation..
And look what she has made! Gorgeous work.
Here is one of five year old Brooke getting some help with her title as she created her layout.
and here's Brooke's creation..
Natalie's daughter Bethany has created this gorgeous layout. Natalie says, "Bethany is 8 (seems she's a girl after my own heart with all that journaling she added!!)."
Sensational work Bethany — so clever.
Natalie's younger daughter Moriah is just five years old.. here is her awesome layout.
Addison is eight years old and is Jot Girl Kim J's son — and look at his clever layout. Great job Addison.
Larsen is six years old and is Kim's youngest son. Look at his awesome layout!! Fantastic.
Soo…kids.. drag out the Lego and start creating. We would love to see what you come up with. Oh and you don't HAVE to create a layout about your favourite Lego creations – use the Mood Board to inspire you to create a layout on any theme! Check out our post here..


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Product Description
Face Mask Not included:
Hybrid Single Layer DCT TPU/D3O® Cushioning
A powerful combination of Single Layer Dual Compression TPU Cushioning and patented D3O technology means you get the advanced technology of TPU in the front and crown – and the protection of D3O® in the sides and back – all in the same helmet.
Single Layer Dual Compression TPU
The newest generation of our patented TPU Cushioning System, Single Layer Dual Compression TPU is a ribbed system, constructed in only on layer, that delivers BETTER impact absorption while reducing overall weight. Single Layer Dual Compression TPU absorbs both high velocity violent impacts as well as the low velocity impacts that occur on nearly every play.
D3O® Energy Lock Technology
Lightweight, Flexible, Breathable D3O® is a patented, lightweight impact protection technology with a unique molecular structure allowing it to remain soft and flexible in its natural state. Upon impact, however, the molecules in D3O® lock together to absorb and disperse impact energy, reducing the force transmitted and instantly returning to its natural state.
Patented Twist Release System
Two piece faceguard retainer system eliminates upper loop straps, making it easier and faster than ever to attach or remove the faceguard.
Mechanically Attached TPU
We're now attaching the TPU mechanically. Not only does that hold the TPU securely in place, it also allows us to put thicker TPU cushions in the helmet
Surefit AiR Liner System
The newly re-designed SUREFIT Air Liner features a TPU outer skin (front liner) with increased surface coverage and additional comfort foam that makes it ultra comfortable. The back liner is strategically located behind the D3O® padding, ensuring a secure and proper fit.
High Powered Shell Design
Incorporating the best design elements of the ION 4D and the AiR XP, the Vengeance shell also features our patented Flexural Resistance Back Shelf Design – increasing strength and impact absorption in the back of the helmet.
Standard Accessories
The Vengeance DCT comes with: The Vengeance DCT Hybrid+ comes standard with: Twist Release System, Youth Soft Cup Chin Strap (7713) and 1 1/8" AiR Maxx TPU Jaw Pads.
Item # 2045813CCC
Head Size 6 – 6 1/2
Circumference 19 – 20 1/2″
Item # 2045814CCC
Head Size 6 1/2 – 7
Circumference 20 1/2 – 22″
Item # 2045815CCC
Head Size 7 – 7 1/2
Circumference 22 – 23 1/2″
Item # 2045816CCC
Head Size 7 1/2- 8
Circumference 23 1/2 – 25″


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Thursday, May 23, 2013
Conversion = Desire - Friction, more or less
All kind of questions start swirling. Are we better off making desire just a tiny bit better than friction everywhere? Stop effort once we have motivated conversion, anything beyond that is wasted. Are there business models where desire distributions or friction distributions should be dictating approaches that we are not thinking about that well yet? Probably. Gimme some time to grok on that or some help at least.
Simple enough I guess. But it is rare that the conversion event is enough. Loyalty, LTV, advocacy all go way past conversion. So even if we get the conversion event perfectly modeled it may not help us succeed better. If upfront conversion and promoter score were independent, maybe, but we all know they are not.
So if you have the data to think about audience desire and friction distribution, and can build these things independently and impact downstream behavior. You should use a more refined equation perhaps. But for most of us, we are better off keeping it simple probably. Geez, it is hard enough getting statistical significance on a test as we fragment markets more and more anyway. I will probably stay with the directional goal of increase desire and reduce friction broadly most of the time for now. But I am keeping my eye out for a place to apply a more refined view to good effect. I am sure it is out there for some high scale consumer model. Seen it?
1 comment:
- DrB said...
I found this blog thought-provoking, and that is something from a guy who's current reading list is a Java book, a real thick book on interaction design, and a SolidWorks manual.
I like the idea of conversion = p(desire>friction), as I think it begins to explain a lot about behavior. One aspect of the equation that is not noted, and drives the situation is all the parameters upon which this function depends. Surely desire and friction are not consistent across products (they may differ for a toothbrush and a MacBook Pro computer). There is generally little friction with a toothbrush (except for my son, where brushing is a necessary evil) as they are usually low cost. MacBook Pros have some friction due to their high cost, a customer's ability to use other means of computing, and the like. So, it would seem that there are many factors upon which these distributions depend, such as cost, prestige, early adopter image (that's what I look to you for), and environmental conditions, to name a few. And they change all the time.
This last parameter, environmental conditions is interesting. I recently saw a lady in a store that made it well known that she had recently undergone a divorce, and she was changing around her life. What did she drive outside? None other than a brand new convertible Porche. Desire and friction changed dramatically based on that incident.
On many items, particularly those associated with prestige, it may be true that we only need to create enough desire to get consumers over the hump. Once they are there, they are often times committed, and work to justify what they have, creating more desire, and less friction for future purchases. Of course, if we do not deliver on the expectations, we cannot expect the customer to continue to justify the purchase indefinitely, so the analysis is tricky.
I think the aim to keep the model simple and use conversion = p(Desire>friction) works best as it guides us, rather than being a numbers game that is rigorously prescriptive. Knowing that we have distributions of desire and friction motivate us to understand more, even if the analysis is qualitative. we can then set out to understand the drivers behind desire and friction, such as the ones I mentioned above.
- May 24, 2013 at 8:41 AM