text:
Northam Leads Seven New Polls in VA
As you would expect, there has been a tidal wave of final polls for the gubernatorial race in Virginia, all showing a single lead for Ralph Northam. The most unsurprising change was Quinnipiac University, who was somehat hanging out there with that ridiculous 175 lead for Northam. Even still, they are the one showing the biggest lead for Northam at this point.
WHO DATES Northam (D) Gillespie (R) Hyra (L) Quinnipiac Oct 29-Nov 5 51% 42% 3% Monmouth Nov 2-5 47% 45% 3% The Polling Company Nov 2-5 47% 46% 3% Fox News Nov 2-5 48% 43% 3% Christopher Newport Oct 29-Nov 4 51% 45% 2% Emerson Nov 2-4 49% 46% 1% Google Consumer Research Nov 3-5 51% 49% –
At this point, should Ed Gillespie win, this will be yet another black eye on the polling industry as a whole.
Filed under: General | Comments (832)
832 Responses to "Northam Leads Seven New Polls in VA"
I think Northam will win a very close race because some idiot Libertarians send a message by sabotaging Gillespie.
#2, if Hyra gets more than 2-3% I will be shocked.
"At this point, should Ed Gillespie win, this will be yet another black eye on the polling industry as a whole."
Not really Dave. If Ed wins 49/48/3 then several of these polls were in the margin of error.
"Gillespie is performing very strongly in the western region and may even eclipse Donald Trump's 2016 majority there. Northam is doing about the same in Northern Virginia as Terry McAuliffe's 2013 showing and is running slightly better than the incumbent did along the Chesapeake Bay. It's all going to come down to the central part of the state. The counties surrounding the greater Richmond area are likely to determine the next governor," said Murray.
I say Gillespie pulls it out.
Gillespie 49%
Northampton 47%
DW, you've been predicting a win for Ed. Now that all the polls/evidence are in, are you reconsidering your pick?
Northam stupid auto correct
Robbie, is the VA Governor's race a referendum on Trump? Tell us before the vote.
Hello all, another election and this one will be fun. I see a 1-4 point victory for Northam, but who knows. It all depends on turnout and enthusiasm.
And then there are the peculiar VA trends. The Governorship has flipped between the two parties over the past three elections. That would indicate that the GOP has the edge. However, a competing trend is that the party not in charge of the White House wins the VA Govship during POTUS' first term. That is a good sign for Dems. And add to it, that VA has become bluer of the last decade.
Perhaps the pollsters are making turnout assumptions (different ones at that) which has caused the wildly different polling results.
A state-wide race in a purple state. This should be a good one and will be closely analyzed by both sides as they prepare for the mid-terms.
Big Joe
Some more funny election night comments from RRH:
CyHawk November 8, 2016 at 8:36 pm
He [Trump] should have visited OH in the last weekend instead of ignoring it for more reach states
"Did Robbie ever tell us whether the VA race is a referendum on Trump? He should do so before the votes are cast."
-I am pretty sure that YES, Robbie commented that if G loses, it would be because of Trump's unfavorables, but that if G wins it would be because of McAwful-fatigue.
I will try to find that comment.
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 8:42 pm
Looks like I seriously screwed up on the POTUS race, but I thought Trump would be doing better. Being behind this much in NC…. jeez.
I think the kids and AA votes sits it out and Gillespie wins a squeaker. I no longer trust polls. However could just be wishful thinking.
regarding PA:
Ryan_in_SEPA November 8, 2016 at 8:51 pm
Yea I am pretty Clinton wins here. The suburban numbers are horrible.
31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian
MaxwellsDemon November 8, 2016 at 8:50 pm
Deep breaths. Deep breaths. Even if Trump wins Ohio, NC, FL, he doesnt look like he's coming close anywhere else
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 8:52 pm
Trump is going down in flames.
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 8:53 pm
No. If Trump had a real shot, he'd lead in NC by now.
Big Joe, I agree with you. It all depends on turnout and enthusiasm. I believe the Republicans have the advantage there. Northam has angered his supporters by not putting his AA lt. gov in his fliers in the rural part of Virginia and flip flopped on making Virginia a sanctuary state. The Latino victory fund has called him racist and former Governor Wilder has refused to endorse him. Republicans on the other hand are united behind Gillespie.
Google "CNN,175,Sue"
Google "CNN,175,Sue"
Between Koi-gate and Japanese automaker-gate — the American media is a total laughingstock.
ump] should have visited OH in the last weekend instead of ignoring it for more reach states
Think that comment actualy applied to her thighness.
Is Dave going to have a prediction thread for the VA Gov's race? If so, I am going:
Northam: 51%
Gillespie: 47%
Hyra: 2%
Funny–one of the few on RRH who got it a little after 9pm on election night was a democrat:
Tekzilla November 8, 2016 at 9:11 pm
Markets are tanking right now, they know whats coming.
The 'Republicans' kept cheering for Clinton:
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:13 pm
Breath, Tekzilla. The moment one of those bigger states get called for Clinton, they'll bounce back.
and this was the all time classic:
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:20 pm
Mexican Pesos don't win you states. Votes do. And the votes are headed Clinton's way. It doesn't matter if she wins with 270 votes, or 370. But she'll hit 270 and I'm willing to eat crap if she doesn't.
my prediction:
Gillespie: 49%
Northam: 48%
Hyra: 3%
MosheM November 8, 2016 at 9:21 pm
Free Press projection: Hillary Clinton wins Michigan https://t.co/pcPhP8vKPV via @freep
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:24 pm
It'll take the major networks more time, but yes.
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:26 pm
Trump needs to do well in CO. He won't win VA, he won't win MI, so he hasn't breached the firewall that Clinton has built. But her numbers are comfortable in CO, so for all the bed wetting that's going on with Dems right now (and the "suspense" fueled by Fox), I have yet to see a convincing reason as to why people are starting to think that Trump might win this.
Saudi Arabia on the brink of war!
You better go to the gas station and fill up the tank because, prices will be going up.
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:38 pm
Tons of good clinton counties are out in MI and Trump isn't getting anywhere where he'd need to be to even make PA somewhat competitive. Like Rove said: Even if Trump wins FL and OH and NC, he will still lose. He still has to find a brick in the blue wall and pull it out. I don't see him doing that.
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 9:42 pm
I wrote to a friend of mine that the absolute best possible scenario (because no, Trump won't win, I'll repeat that like a mantra for the next hours) is a close Clinton victory and a GOP congress. If the Dems only flip IL (which I don't think, they still have shots in other races), that'd make me … not happy, but satisfied.
Those RRH comments are very instructive as to where they're coming from.
If there is any GOP candidate they actually LIKED, that would be Mitt Romney, I guess. Only one I can think of.
Anyone more populist than Mitt offends them.
GerGOP is still the most active poster over there.
I got banned for harshly criticizing former Miss America Erika Herald for launching her political career by running against a completely unobjectionable GOP incumbent congressman (Rodney Davis) in IL in the primary.
You know what? I still feel exactly the same way. I think I said she was an idiot. Which she IS. Unacceptable!
MD/Maxwell's Demon was out of here by 10:00 on Election Day. I did not know he posted there back then unde that handle. This is the only site I visit.
24 – I wonder how that cr@p tasted?
In defense of that "GerGOP" poster's comment about eating cr*p, I belive someone already posted (months ago) where he said "he was not going to like it, but glad he would have to"…..or some such statement later that night.
-Robbie: "Nothing to see here, please keep moving!"?
Is Donald Trump a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?
27% Major factor
16% Minor factor
56% Not a factor
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 11:17 pm
Egg on the face of many and a load of crap for me to eat.
at least he owned it.
Monmouth has Gillespie doing poorly in Eastern Virginia, and if that is the case, he will lose.
That does not line up with most polls I've seen, that have shown him ahead in Richmond/Tidewater.
This is going to be a turnout election. If Gillespie does well in Richmond/Tidewater, it will be a race for the base. If he does poorly on either of those counts, he will fall short again.
37 – in other words, not a factor. Dems in the poll will all say 'major factor,' but they still get just one vote each — for the most part.
40 – Gillespie's team very active here in VA Beach and Chesapeake.
I will know when I go vote, based on the lines the number who have voted by the time I vote, and who is in line. This method has never failed me. I live in sort of a bell-weather precinct.
41 yup, and it lines up with what I posted from another poll earlier…
That poll showed independents largely don't care, and Dems casting a protest in support of the GOP far outnumbered the Repubs casting a protest against the GOP.
MaxwellsDemon November 8, 2016 at 11:23 pm
Looks like Hillary will pull ahead in MI
Mr. Vito, exactly what they said as I posted in #5 🙂
and GERGOP finally got something right on election night:
GerGOP November 8, 2016 at 11:32 pm
I should stop making predictions …
41 – seems that 43% say Trump has at least a minor impact on the vote. I don't know the context to know if that is a big number .
ed wins 49.5-47.5 imo
MD/Maxwell's Demon was out of here by 10:00 on Election Day. I did not know he posted there back then unde that handle. This is the only site I visit.
MD/Maxwell's Demon posted on RRH a week ago. He is all in on the Russia collusion conspiracy.
Looks like EG has stalled but he is a strong closer.
So, Ed ran the whole race without a Trump presence (as far as I know). Was this a good idea (I know your stance, Robbie)?
" He is all in on the Russia collusion conspiracy."
-And community colleges…..which I find very funny, since he made his net worth a topic many times.
I do hope his daughters are able to get a great education.
Northam 49-46.
I would love to be wrong, and would love it even more if all the polls are wrong.
Yeah, I know, Gillespie could win by one or two and most of those polls would still be right.
I find it hard to believe higher insurance premiums "broke" MD.
He often said he had enough put away for college and retirement, I think he is just being dramatic.
A minor hit on his cash flow maybe, that's about it.
MD's really been gone since election day? Dang
Big Joe
"I find it hard to believe higher insurance premiums "broke" MD."
Maybe he bet on the market tamking….
I wish MD well….it was always enjoyable to step through the "minefields" him and his fellow A-Holes would leave.
NYC is the dream of any infantry unit. A guy who enjoys stepping through minefields.
-And this is whom Author is re-tweeting.
Looks like EG has stalled but he is a strong closer"
Author's next book should be:
"Quechuan *uixote, The Journey From A-Hole To Trump Chump"
For some reason, HAL won't let me put the Q in *uixote
NYC's minefield comment reminds me of the suicide bombing instructor wearing the explosives belt and telling his students "I am only going to show you this once".
1. There remain a lot of likely but undecided voters and there are two margins, not one. G-H as well as G-N. G will win the undecided vote.
2. A good many supporters of third-party candidates wind up voting for their second choice candidate.
By such analysis, I did o.k. (but wasn't perfect) last year:
Of course, with one "call" this year, it's an all or nothing proposition.
"For some reason, HAL won't let me put the Q in *uixote"
You can thank poster I.P.727 for that…
And as proof, I just got put in moderation for trying to do the other handle…
Nice one, jason.
An instructor should ALWAYS ask for volunteers…..the really tough part is keeping morale up.
Try typing ca$ino with an s instead of dollar sign
The polls seem to be converging on independents being young, independent, and non-white…
Gillespie would probably rather they stayed home or went for Hyra.
You can't post J.enna either, thanks to Eph.Rove
Or he could call his book
"From demonizing shaking hands with Schumer to thinking that funding him was a great idea – An incredible journey in hypocrisy"
Those demographics are already less inclined to vote in off-year elections so maybe they will stay home.
LOL – had to exhibit your Rubio-love!
67- Heck, I tried to post as "Kevin Spacey" the other day and was put in moderation.
A pity, sock puppets were a lot of fun here. I still don't know how Wobbles and the few remaining ones get away with it.
Has TDT made an appearance this cycle yet?
75 – I am constantly monitoring this site. i just wish I could provide quality trolls, but good help is so hard to get these days.
By the way, Gillespie(R) will be in the lead almost from the time the first votes are counted tomorrow night in VA.
At the 90%-in mark, NoVa will start sending in their totals which will go heavily Democrat.
Tick tock.
The margins are so close in VA that it doesn't matter who's leading in the polls. It's all about base turnout.
I will predict a 49-47 Gillespie win. In the end, minority turnout will not be high enough to save Northam.
Mcamnesty has declared the tax bill in the senate doa
We will lose both house and senate thanks to the deadenders.
I should have realized that there was something amiss at the DNC because of the way the trolls were acting last year. They were all Hillary trolls. No Bernie trolls.
TDT – Were you ordered to not hire Bernie trolls?
81 – I was the ghost writer for Donna Brazile's book
79…turnout is key, and Gillespie doing better in the suburb counties around NOVA
"Mcamnesty has declared the tax bill in the senate doa"
-How can that be…..I thought, for sure, as a "life-long conservative legislator", that he would have a tax-cutting bill ready to be voted on, just like he had a healthcare reform bill waiting on his desk….
That is a telling juxtaposition…..a few posters are still lamenting the Libertarian vote in VA, while the incumbent Republican Senator from Arizona declares a House bill DOA without even a vote being taken…..
NYC – The irony is that if Northam wins because of the Libertarian voters in Virginia, you will be silent.
There is always a so called libertarian troll in the race.
Almost always, it seems, that hurts the r.
In 2016 it was mcstuffin who was supposed to win utah and deny trump the win.
"Bitterlaw says:
November 6, 2017 at 4:30 pm
NYC – The irony is that if Northam wins because of the Libertarian voters in Virginia, you will be silent."
That's assuming that the L vote would have gone to Gillespie without the L candidate.
More likely, the L voters would not even show up if their candidate is not on ballot.
This opinion piece argues that trump has had the most conservative agenda in a generation
Tina 80
That's my view too.
"Democrats are desperate to avoid a culture war with Trump in 2018"
This would be news to those who think Trump instituted the military transgender ban and tweeted about NFL/BLM thugs on a whim.
I have said it before, and will say it again. I don't know how it is in other states, but the Virginia libertarians tend to be an amalgamated collection of crack-pots, paul-bots, pot-bots, or a combo of all three. These are far from regular Republican voters who have just gone a little off base. If the Libertarian was NOT on the ballot then about 25% would stay home, 25% vote D, 25% vote R, and another 25% might write someone in.
It is not a real factor in the outcome of the election.
Do you… post at RRH, by chance?
Someone there quoted something you posted here earlier today almost verbatim, i.e, a bad past prediction by GerGOP.
Feel free to say "no comment," or "I can neither confirm nor deny."
92- Unless of course both major party nominees are awful, in which case disaffected voters who bother to vote choose the Libertarian as the only other option on the ballot.
Not to throw my own state under the bus, but many voters here who claim to be conservative in reality are stupid when it comes to voting.
There is a certain "Barney Fife' ego among many–it compels them to have to be the smartest voter in the room even though they are completely uneducated as to the candidates and voting for those who best match what they actually believe. So they end up voting stupidly.
I shared an example back in 2014 when I talked a guy I know who attends a very conservative evangelical church. The guy is white, pro-military, pro-gun, pro-life, for smaller government and lower taxes.
He voted for Warner over Gillespie because he wanted to come off as 'smart' and not always just pulling the R lever. He thought Warner was stronger on the military based on some ad he saw or flyer he read.
This guy is the Democrat's dream for a Republican voter. I sense there are a lot of them here in VA, just one more obstacle the GOP candidates have to overcome.
93 – I do not post at RRH.
They can call it macaroni if they want, but McCain was back in the hospital today, for "non-life threatening effects of cancer treatment."
Then you have a doppelgänger.
should be 96
GerGOP has gone chicken. Last year it was a pile of cr@p he would eat if Trump won…this year its dirt:
GerGOP November 6, 2017 at 2:12 pm
Northam by 4-8 and anyone thinking that Gillespie will win is fooling him/herself, imho. I'll gladly eat a bucket of dirt if I'm wrong, though.
Poor GerGOP. Always cheerleading for Dems. Never right yet.
He's like the Bunu of RRH.
final average: Trump 42.2 result 46.1
final average: Clinton 45.5 result 48.2
final average: Johnson 4.7 result 3.3
final average: Stein 1.9 result 1.1
About a third of minor party support shifted to second choice candidates on election day. That is, they sobered up upon entering the voting booth. Plus, Trump won the undecideds. (The results are even more dramatic in selected races in '14, and in Kentucky in '15 [with an independent Tea Party-type candidate]).
The shift of minor party support to second choice candidates had been going on for some time during the final several weeks of the '16 Presidential campaign. At peak, Johnson had 9.2 percent and Stein 2.7.
Now, if you were to press me on this, I'm not so sure the little sliver of support the Libertarian is drawing in Virginia is a European-style liberal, hence center-right vote. Maybe the Libertarians are down to stoners. When the Republicans were running social conservatives, and the Libertarians were doing better, I thought they cost us the election.
As it is, the first wave is in the landing crafts and on their way to the beaches. There will be plenty of time for second guessing when this battle is over.
more u1news and fusion news coming out today, later this week.
I predicted a 2 point victory for Gillespie and I will stick with that. In fact, I am feeling more confident in my prediction. The terrible shooting in Texas that was stopped by a gun carrying citizen is going to really charge the conservative pro 2nd amendment vote. In addition despite Politicos claims about huge Afro-American turnout I believe it is his wishful thinking on their part. And finally most persuasive of all are these bogus polls. Just like always they point to a Democratic win. Like always to do that they message their voter sample until the over sampling of Democrats is laughable. But even with that they show a closing race that looks, despite their best efforts, that surprise, surprise, Gillespie wins by two.
100. GERGOP disappeared after another poster at RRH called him out on his election night posts of 2016.
His posts were very similar to robbie's. hmmmm….
Tina, Sessions has the dirt and the backing of many top level DOJ officials to call a SC per Hannity sources.
All up to him to show a spine
Jonesy, from what i understand, he has the dirt and does not need to do a sc. he did not recuse himself from everything hc, just anything involving her and rhe campaign.
This makes sense.
Unless mueller is also looking i to this.
I do not see why he met with trump the day before his appoitmmet to sc for a position he was not eligible for.
Fbi dir3ctor can only seeve one, 10yr term.
107. Thanks tina
I guess everyone is getting tired of all of the winning.
Ryan Struyk?
President approval rating at the one year mark via @CNN and Gallup –>
W Bush 87%
Kennedy 79%
HW Bush 70%
Nixon 67%
Eisenhower 61%
Carter 55%
Obama 54%
Reagan 49%
Clinton 48%
Trump 36%
Supposed to rain across most of Virginia tomorrow, and be chilly as well with a high of only 61 in VA Beach. Its been up in the high 70s for days now and my AC is running as I type.
So this might depress turnout some. Not sure who it benefits or if it makes a difference.
Jonesy and Tina talking about Hannity's inside sources is peak HHR.
More local forecasts:
Richmond, VA, Rain, high near 49, north wind.
Arlington, VA, Rain, high near 48, north wind.
Charlottesville, VA, Rain, high near 48, north wind.
Roanoke, VA, Rain, high near 52, east wind.
44 percent in ras
Hill chump.
Hw bush, is he up to 4or 5 incidents now?
Is the family in control?
Is president mute going to comment?
Good one Tina. Robbie voted for Hillary, so he is a Hill Chump
Hannity has the highest rated show on Cable News.
Robbie is still a dimwit
Robbie, you and GerGop at RRH are the laughingstocks of both sites, with your awful predictions.
Curtis in Utah only wins by 25% in Utah, Robbie says because of Trump, he did not win by 50%.
Tin Foil time
44 percent in ras
Hill chump."
Trash it. Doesn't fit the narrative.
I only accept polls under 40%, otherwise my fake narrative doesn't work.
If, when podesta and her thighness are incifeted, look for hill chimp to be even more unhinged.
It is protect hillary at all cost.
Groper hw was the only one that lost re election because he could not articulate.
111. What about your GOPe sources Robbie?
1. Hillary Surging in Utah
2. Blunt in big trouble
3. Clinton to win 370 ev's
4. Brokered convention is happening
5. Maggie Habermann to win Nobel Peace Prize
6. Jeb is da man
Bush 1 lost , because he raised taxes and stabbed GOP voters in the back
What the hell does this mean?
Bitter has already met his quota of awesomeness thos week by way of the Eagles putting 50 on the board and another team putting 50 on the board agsinst the Giants…any election results would be gravy
Giants fans like me hardest hit
Northam 49%
Gillespie 47%
AA vote wont show up tomorrow night, but the rest of the anti-Trump vote will, and that will be just enough for Northam to get the victory.
Spell checker.
GHWB lost for all the above reasons.
I know the CW among Bush fanboys is that Perot took votes away from GHWB snd cost him the election. That's doesn't explsin why Clinton led by eider margins when Perot wasn't running. It also doesn't explain how GHWB was guaranteed to win without Perot in the race after trailing literally every poll from July on.
That's assuming that the L vote would have gone to Gillespie without the L candidate.
More likely, the L voters would not even show up if their candidate is not on ballot."
Soccer Moron has a point.
But it doesn't mean they are not idiots for helping Northam win.
Usss arrest man for going to dc wanting to kill alll whote officers in the white house
Thanks, Tina.
Gope Rick Wilson getting some blowback on twitter for orotecting a sexual predator.
GHWB was surging before Walsh a rogue prosecutor stalled his momentum.
And you can't look at Perot's national numbers to decide what his influence was, you have to look at the individual states. It's very clear had he not run, enough states would have flipped to give GHWB the win.
While i think VA will be a donnybrook tomorrow..the talk of the GOPs destruction is a little premature…i remember Morning Joe in 2014 going over Marist polls 2 weeks prior to the election and proclaiming GOP doom cause KY and AR were close and they had a Marist poll showing Orman up 10 in KS
Rounds was supposidly in trouble and not one pre election poll had the GOP winning in NC
DW probably could refresh my memory of how all that doom and gloom translated at the ballot box
Virginia Libertarians are an odd breed. While wooing my ex-wife in Arlington in the early 2000s, I actually had a chance to sit in on one of their meetings.
They seemed to have a hodgepodge of mostly crackpot ideas thrown into a blender and adopted without question by all present.
For people extolling individualism, they pretty much engaged in groupthink.
From that experience, I conclude DW is right. The VALP is no reservoir of untapped GOP voters.
Is that true now, Jason, since Perot's voters claimed they would have split evenly between Clinton and Bush had Perot not been an option?
Once again, Clinton led by WIDER margins when Perot was not a candidate than when Perot was a candidate, thus underscoring GHWB would have lost whether Perot ran or not.
Those are just facts. Speculation that Perot voters would have all broken to GHWB is unfounded.
Even Michael Barone in the Almanac of American Politics has said Perot's primary contribution to the 1992 race was to keep Bill Clinton below 50%.
I'm sure you know infinitely more about American electoral politics than Michael Barone.
Actually, RB, Gravis said Tillis would win in NC.
Mika joe scarfarce loces the drats.
Wes-I forgot about that
In 2014 they weren't even polling VA…too busy polling Kansas and South Dakota
Most polls in 2014 had Earnst in a toss race except the Selzer poll…MSM pollls were wrong and Ann Selzer/DMR was most accurate
CO was the only race were the Republican slightly underperformed the polls, but still won
Interesting numbers with the Presidential appovals earliet…outside of 2002(9/11effect) how many of those presidents had resounding midterm victories?
In 2013 exits, Sarvis took more from McAuliffe than Cucinelli.
In fact, Cucinelli won 18-24 year-olds in the exits as 15% went to Sarvis.
….the GOP will not lose this race. My sense is that they tend to be under-represented in polls here.
Oh, yeah…..one other reason. The Dems are brain dead and missing the single best opportunity they've ever had. They deserve to lose every race they are involved in…which is remarkable because the GOP deserves to lose every race they are involved in. The Dems just deserve to lose more.
Only Kennedy, RB. Dems lost two House seats in 1962 but picked up a net of four Senate seats (slightly dropped to three with the death of a Dem Senator from New Mexico and subsequent appointment of a Republican to replace him.)
Chad Pergram
Grassley to FBI's Wray. Says Comey "acknowledged..Clinton..violated the statute" handling classified info but was "nonetheless exonerated"
2:38 PM · Nov 6, 2017
I hopè Hellbelly's right. Anyway, polls be damned. I'm sticking with my prediction that Gillespie wins 50-47. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.
See November 2016 as an example.
The Associated Press ? @AP
BREAKING: Officials: Air Force didn't submit Texas church shooter's criminal history to FBI, as required by Pentagon rules.
3:00 PM – Nov 6, 2017
Steve Bannon: Stepien looked at it and said, "Our spread is too big, they can't recover from this." Miami-Dade and Broward were coming back really slow. They were clearly holding votes back, right? And then Stepien looked at me and said, "We have such a big lead now. They can't steal it from us."
PDT's JA us up a bit because he's traveling abroad and acting, well…Presidential!
PDT to self: "Huh. Maybe I should act Presidential more often? Stop feuding with Miss Venezuela because she's fat. Stop responding to football players and obscure comedians. That kind of thing? ….Nah! Is my twitter account fired up again yet?"
is up a bit
I found the jebots.
Although, those succession of polls don't look encouraging, I continue to believe G will pull it out by a 3-4 pt margin.
Another scandal, let's overturn the results of the election!
"Melania Trump upstaged by White House communications director Hope Hicks with chic look at state dinner
It's a fashion showdown in Japan!
Melania Trump attended a state banquet in Tokyo wearing a striking red Valentino dress, but she may have been upstaged by White House communications director Hope Hicks who opted for a chic tuxedo for the glamorous event.
The first lady chose a traditional, floor-length number for the glitzy occasion that she paired with shoes of the same hue. She kept her low chignon bun hairstyle from earlier in the day, while adding a slightly darker shade of pink to match her dramatic look."
Speculation that Perot voters would have all broken to GHWB is unfounded."
Nobody said "all" of them would have broken for GHWB
In some states only a small plurality of them was needed, and Perot voters differed state by state, they were more "R" in some states than others.
But I know, facts don't trump Bush Derangement Syndrome.
I am quite familiar with pre-election and exit polls that ask supporters of third-party candidates (and back in '92 and '96, Perot supporters) who, between the two major party candidates, they would vote for. This is solid evidence. But, this evidence is contradicted by what actually occurs. (Again, I'm not going to the mat on this when the Libertarian Party vote is at or less than 1 percent.) It is not a coincidence that time after time, minor party candidates underperform relative to the final batch of pre-election day polls, to the benefit of the nearest major party candidate.
Kentucky Governor 2015:
final RCP average – Bevin (R) 41.3; result – 52.5
final RCP average – Curtis (I) 6.3; result – 3.7
final RCP average – Conway (D) 44.3; result – 43.8
The polls were within the MOE of Conway's result. About a third of Curtis supporters shifted to their second choice candidate, and ALL the undecideds turned out to be undecided between Bevin and Curtis, and broke en masse to Bevin. As amazing as this sounds, Kentucky '15 – and a swing of 11.7 points – might not have been a polling failure.
Georgia Senator 2014 and Florida Governor 2014 are almost as dramatic, in terms a Republican coming from behind to win by a combination of winning the undecided vote and last minute shift of third party supporters to the second choice candidate.
About the demographics of the undecideds in this year's race: Kellyanne Conway noticed that the demographics of the undecideds in key states last year said "Democrat," but their values said "Republican." Her plan was simply to have Trump keep going back and asking for the vote, and also to put out images that would make a demographic-Democrat feel o.k. about voting Republican in the privacy of the voting booth.
If I have to be under arrest, I want to be in Saudi Arabia. 5 Star hotel = Graybar Inn there. If you misbehave, no foie gras for 3 days, m**********r!
Reports suggest at least two fish have heartburn due to excessive feeding by Trump.
President Pence!d
157- As someone who grew up up in the Kingdom and has seen the inside of a ME jail cell, I can only ask, "Son, you ever been in a Turkish prison?" ?
So, just a one post drive-by by our favorite pilot?
Sorry, two posts. They tend to run together…..
Facts like that GHWB would have eon as Clinton gained more votes on him, Jason?
Sure. Go on living in Wackyland where that was going to happen.
Bless his heart.
Jason just can't take the fact that a future dirty old man was going to lose regardless of whether Perot ran and has to create an alternate universe scenario where it's "clear" the Perotistas were going to rush to GHWB in large enough numbers to give him 270 EVs.
No polling substantiates this, and Michael Barone–who has more knowledge of American politics in pinky fingertip than Jason has in whole GWB fan boy body–says it's in no way reflective of reality.
Regardless, it helps Jason sleep at night, so who am I to criticize?
Bush Worship Syndrome certainly knows no bounds.
Dw, read the esquire post about the 2016 election. I could swear that you wrote the article.
I just want to be where the Kingdom has "locked up" the multimillionaire princes!
I said nothing about Turkey. I read Midnight Express.
Speaking of Perot, I admired Admiral Stockdale. I think he was a little ahead of his time– not at all glib or slick. Very "real." That might work better today.
Reza Aslan: My wife stayed up and I went to sleep, then she woke me up around 1 or 2 in the morning bawling and told me that it was over. My poor, sweet wife. She wanted to hug and kiss me but I went into a panic attack and couldn't breathe.
Rebecca Traister: People were throwing up. People were on the floor crying.
"An early draft of former FBI Director James Comey's statement closing out the Hillary Clinton email case accused the former secretary of State of having been "grossly negligent" in handling classified information, newly reported memos to Congress show.
The tough language was changed to the much softer accusation that Clinton had been "extremely careless" in her handling of classified information when Comey announced in July 2016 there would be no charges against her.
The change is significant, since federal law states that gross negligence in handling the nation's intelligence can be punished criminally with prison time or fines."
Jason, Robbie has determined that HRC investigations are subjects only discussed by Trump Chumps. Make a note of it.
"Podesta and her thighness are incifeted"
I wouldn't know about Podesta, but the chances are good that Hillary became infected decades ago.
Sen. Tim Kaine, Democratic vice presidential candidate: "I thought we would win, but I was more wary than many for the simple reason that the U.S. had never elected a woman president and still has a poor track record of electing women to federal office."
Bull. That clown was clapping his hands throughout the campaign with that doofy grin on his face, and adding nothing to the Dem Ticket because he was already ordering the new furniture for the Veep house.
Wes is critical of GHWB for being a dirty old man but admires Bill Clinton.
I love this place. The irony meter explodes every day.
Bret Baier: At 8:30 I turned to Chris Wallace, who was sitting next to us on the set, and said, "This does not look like it's lining up." We came back from commercial break and Chris said, "Donald Trump could be the next president of the United States."
Baier missed it – it was actually at 9:05 pm when wallace said that.
9:05 pm
Chris Wallace on Fox News says he is now "open to the possibility Donald Trump could be the next president of the United States."
I like bannons comments on florida.
We have it, it is outside of the margin of theft from miami.
"Baier missed it – it was actually at 9:05 pm when wallace said that."
Not exactly… FOX went to commercial between the Arkansas poll close at 8:30PM and 8:45PM.
That would be when he turned to Chris Wallace during the break… the 8:30PM Arkansas poll closing would be what he remembered.
When they returned, Chris did not speak until after 9:00PM.
Yes, I have watched it several times… oh well.
If you don't enjoy curling up with popcorn and watch the American voter drop a house on the Wicked Witch of the West, you aren't alive, I say.
*Witch of the East
"but the chances are good that Hillary became infected decades ago"
You think sex was part of their arrangement?
I wouldn't know about Podesta, but the chances are good that Hillary became infected decades ago.
lesbians generally have a low std rate
generally lower than heterosexuals
"it was actually at 9:05 pm when wallace said that."
i happened to be watching fox at that moment, mostly because i could not take the gloating at cnn and msnbc … fox was bad too, they thought hillary had it and were happy.
then wallace said that from the numbers he was seeing that trump could win
megyn kelley and the other hosts actually laughed
Kelly and Baier were upbeat before Wallace was… so was Brit Hume.
They did not laugh at Wallace… they laughed because they were already excited, and the crowd behind them roared in approval. It isn't even in question, because they all were reacting to it.
No one who actually watched the FOX coverage could conclude they didn't want Trump to win… they clearly all thought it was friggin' awesome that there was a race.
FOX Business was REALLY upbeat.
Seriously, DW. Turn the page.
`I just went back and checked, beacause of what lisab said… lisab is wrong, but DW was right… they went to a commercial again just before 9:00, and I had forgotten.
Good job, DW.
"Seriously, DW. Turn the page."
Come on, man. Don't you still go to youtube to watch Lidge get that final strikeout?
Kelly and Baier were upbeat before Wallace
kelly and hume were not trump fans though
and certainly juan williams was not
We know DW has watched the Mets game six about four hundred million times…
hey clearly all thought it was friggin' awesome that there was a race.
i imagine that election coverage is quite boring if it is a blowout
"i imagine that election coverage is quite boring if it is a blowout"
The other network anchors weren't enjoying it…
PBS was funny.
Brooks was totally perplexed the whole night… kept scrunching his face, rubbing his head, and pushing on his glasses.
Stuart Stevens was white as a sheet and kept trying to think of different ways to call Trump voters racist without saying the words.
Amy Walters had an eye flutter and plastic smile.
Late into the night Woodruff kept demanding the panel say "IF… IF" Clinton wins, even though every knew it was a foregone conclusion.
The Dem strategist laughed uncomfortably as he made points.
The Fill in for Gwen Ifill wasn't too bad.
Mark Shields was a total bore.
The best two were the black female panelist who did a great job, and Jeff Greenfield, who they would cut to from time to time.
The other network anchors weren't enjoying it…
they enjoyed it until about 9 pm
somewhere between 9 and 10 pm they started freaking.
it was great!
best election evah !!!
2000 was good, but nervewracking as they kept reversing their calls.
the only thing that worried me in 2016 was that hillary was NOT going to concede … but then she did
A reporter for Skynews kept going up to random people for interviews at bars, and hilariously got more than she bargained for a few times.
who do you think was sent in to tell hillary it was time to call the donald?
there are rumors she was distraught and maybe drunk by midnight and they had to stall to let her calm down
but so far i have not seen anyone confirm that
"they enjoyed it until about 9 pm"
You KNOW they were high-fiving each other when they got the first exits.
"who do you think was sent in to tell hillary it was time to call the donald?"
The word is, Obama called her and told her to concede.
i recently saw the sky news when dw posted their coverage by accident, maybe two days ago
they did not seem happy
You KNOW they were high-fiving each other when they got the first exits.
check out the young turks, they were having a grand old time … and then they were furious
The word is, Obama called her and told her to concede.
classy move. good for the country.
i heard bill actually warned her a day or two before that she could lose
and she told him to get lost, that his kind of campaigning was over and that her team knew what they were doing
According to Donna Brazile, Obama had bankrupted the DNC, and of course, they then made arrangements for Hillary to fill the coffers for control…
has to make you wonder if that is why Biden didn't run, and Obama wouldn't commit to endorsing him.
I'm going to call Virginia Governor Tossup (D), but as a longtime fan of Ed Gillespie would be happy to be wrong and see him win. I just can't be a "cheerleader" though.
Gillespie was an underdog all along and it's pretty remarkable that he was in the game all the way until the end, all things considered.
Democrats need this win (nationally) far more than Republicans do. They are going to be inconsolable if they wind up blowing this one.
"they did not seem happy"
they were NOT happy
earlier today people were speculating about whether libertarians would vote republican
i don't know
but i do know that i would NOT have voted for hillary had jill stein not run. i would have voted for weld the pot smoker guy before hillary
i would have voted for weld ** AND ** the pot smoker guy before hillary
In these dark days, I'm glad so many can enjoy these little onanistic moments from the 2016 election.
Rand Paul's assault was over lawn clippings!! Wow, perhaps someone needed their medicine adjusted.
I just read that long article that Tina posted about the various people and what was their reaction on election night.
Very interesting.
My own recollection is that I knew it was going to be a distastful and morbid chore to watch the election results and Hillary winning. I felt it was a VERY remote chance that Trump would win. As the night progressed, I was flummoxed when key state after key state kept falling into the DJT column.
As to the overall election results, bottom line is–IMO–is that a lot of people absolutely detested Hillary and as flawed as DJT was, many pulled the lever for him due to their huge dislike of Hillary. DJT inexplicably connected with huge blocks of voters.
Overall, I am still somewhat stunned that such a flawed candidate could beat Hillary.
I did predict on after it was called on election night that we would be in for perilous times…
"Competing explanations of the origins of the drama cited stray yard clippings, newly planted saplings and unraked leaves."
I did predict on after it was called on election night that we would be in for perilous times…
that would be true no matter who won
as a totally unrelated aside …
my exercise stalker has disappeared. i changed my time for a week or so and then changed back just to see if he was still there
nope. so i think he was only trying to bother me. because i go almost every day and it would be unusual for someone who goes every day — as he did — to suddenly not …
unless of course he thought i was stalking him and changed his time …
Matthew Scully-Hicks found guilty of murdering his 18-month-old adopted daughter
Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
(This is mostly a tribute to DW's fine analysis.)
219. Add Wes to that Mn. Both he and DW did fine jobs of giving us the skinny on Va
Cannot even visit RRH today. Like a anti trump barbeque over there
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
Lt.Gov race in Va is huge also. Could be tie breaker vote in Va Senate.
Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
I hope I am wrong but I believe that more Trump haters than Trump supporters will be motivated to turn out.
"CG"'s write-up – love how he relates the Bush time in office (mentions 2001, but not 2005) with the current Trump era of "low approval ratings".
"That was the case in 2001 when the Republican nominee fell several points short in a state that George W. Bush had easily carried the year before and while the incumbent President was in possession of as much political capital as any President in American history."
"The fact that Donald Trump has the lowest approval ratings of any President, one year after his election, than any in the history of polling, also should favor the Democrat in this purplish blue state."
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
Bitterlaw: Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
I don't know how anyone could get tired of watching the 2016 election night coverage–at least anyone who is a lifelong conservative Republican–not necessarily because Trump won, but because Clinton, and her adoring cheerleaders in the media lost.
I mean think about it, EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM was absolutely certain she would win, so these networks had their commentator panels stuffed with people…some had so many that wanted in on it that they had to take turns filling the chairs. ABC had the female AA mayor from Baltimore as a panelist. They all wanted to be in front of the camera so the world could watch them celebrate the first woman president.
Instead the world got to watch them suffer one of the worst nights of their lives–and they deserved to suffer. It was glorious to behold.
Breaking News – People who love Trump predict Gillespie will win. People who hate Trump believe Northam will win.
Tina – Gillespie + 65
Robbie – Northam + 98
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
Bitterlaw: Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
DW: Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3
ToddMcCain: Gillespie 50 Northam 49 Hyra 1
229 – I don't 'love' Trump, though I am glad he is president instead of Hillary, but I believe Gillespie will win.
VA-Gov- 50.5 Northam, 48 Gillespie, 1.5 Other
NOVA is just too blue!
UT CD-3- GOP hold
Washington State- Senate goes Donkey
I have had it with the Bushes. For 8 years G.W. never said a word of criticism as Obama lead us down the path toward socialism. And now he has the nerve to say that he is afraid he will be "the last Republican President." All because his little brother Jeb was a terrible candidate for President. I guess GHW and GW actually do believe in entitlement and that they deserve the highest office because of their bloodline. I guess they forgot that our Country does not believe in the "Divine Right of Kings."
I predict Gillespie 49 – 47
I predicted Gillespie + 2 five days ago.
Northam 49.3 Gillespie 46.1
Ed Gillespie is an excellent campaigner who massively overperformed expectations in his 2014 Senate run. Ralph Northam is a waffling dullard. But in this environment, it's not going to matter.
1) VA is a blue state. Hillary's margin of victory here was greater than in ME, NH, CO, MN, and NV. Anti-Trump Democratic enthusiasm is sky high. Put those two together and it's a big Democratic advantage
2) More than anything, Democrats NEED to win here. ALL of the races and pick up a good number in the HoD. Not sweeping VA in this environment will be devastating. I think they pull out all the stops.
3) McAwful does have a positive approval rating in the state. Virginians appear satisfied with their Democratic governors and see no reason to punish Northam.
X-Factor: It is a possibility that the late breaking Latino Victory Fund commercial depicting all white men as racists who want to run down brown kids will have an energizing effect on Republican voters. Color me skeptical, however.
MichiganGuy says:
November 6, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Gillespie 49%
Northampton 47%
eml will be proven wrong again. We couldn't have ask for a better candidate in Virginia than Gillespie. He ran an excellent campaign. Northam on the other hand ran a pitiful campaign. Democrats are divided as ever. Republicans are united. Republicans will turn out while the democrat will not! Gillespie may even win by more than 2%.
eml will be proven wrong again. We couldn't have ask for a better candidate in Virginia than Gillespie. He ran an excellent campaign. Northam on the other hand ran a pitiful campaign. Democrats are divided as ever. Republicans are united. Republicans will turn out while the democrat will not! Gillespie may even win by more than 2%.
#237 Northam not Northampton lol
DW – I despise Trump. I am embarrassed that he is President. I am also relieved that Hillary is not President. 2016 was the worst Presidential election in my lifetime. I regret that I had to vote for Trump but the alternative was worse.
Bitterlaw, what are you talking about Trump has been the most conservative President of our life time. He will probably be better than Reagan. * Since the election the DOW has set a new all time closing high one out of every four days the market is open!
* Since the Inauguration on January 20th the DOW is up 9{c18972fae7bad54fccba2a5109f73c6e4ffe73508739d7249e14c4c49d351322}. (It was at 19,827 at January 20th.)
* The DOW took just 66 days to climb from 19,000 to above 21,000, the fastest 2,000 point run ever. The DOW closed above 19,000 for the first time on November 22nd and closed above 21,000 on March 1st.
* The DOW closed above 20,000 on January 25th and the March 1st rally matched the fastest-ever 1,000 point increase in the DOW at 24 days.
* On February 28th President Trump matched President Reagan's 1987 record for most continuous closing high trading days when the DOW reached a new high for its 12th day in a row!
* The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have both set new all-time highs during this period.
* The US Stock Market gained $4 trillion in wealth since Trump was elected!
* The S&P 500 also broke $20 Trillion for the first time in its history. As of today, the US Debt has decreased under President Trump since his inauguration by (-$103) Billion. (President Obama increased the US debt in his first 6 months more than $974 Billion or nearly $1 Trillion.) The difference between Presidents Trump and Obama is more than $1 Trillion. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics President Trump added a projected 1,027,000 jobs in his first six months (January through June 2017.) President Obama on the other hand lost more than 3,826,000 million jobs in his first six months. Housing sales are red-hot in the US right now. In 2011, houses for sale were on the market an average 84 days. This year, it's just 45 days.
According to the US Census Bureau, there were nearly twice as many US housing sales in the past couple of months as there were under President Obama in 2009 during the same time period. (The annualized housing sales rate for May 2017 is reported at 610,000 where in 2009 this amount was only 376,000.) Decrease in Regulations
One of the first things that President Trump did in office was to reduce the number or burdensome regulations put in place during the Obama era. In January President Trump signed his 2 for 1 executive order mandating that for every new regulation, two regulations needed to be revoked. Even far left Politico notes that significant new federal regulations since Trump's inauguration have slowed to an almost total halt.
Regulations cost Americans and American companies money to implement and maintain. Reducing or halting regulations allows companies to spend their money on more prudent money making areas.
Other Results
The US Manufacturing Index soared to a 33 year high in President Trump's first six months which was the best number since 1983 under President Reagan.
The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times since President Trump was elected into office in November. The Fed increased intereste rates only once in Obama's 8 Years prior to the increase after President Trumps winning the election in November.
Illegal immigration is down almost 70{c18972fae7bad54fccba2a5109f73c6e4ffe73508739d7249e14c4c49d351322} under President Trump.
NATO announced Allied spending is up $10 Billion because of President Trump.
After being nominated by President Trump, Constitutionalist Judge Neil Gorsuch was confirmed and sworn in as Supreme Court Justice in early April.
The President has signed around 150 executive orders, memoranda and proclamations as of July 19th, including:
* Dismantling Obama's climate change initiatives.
* Travel bans for individuals from a select number of countries embroiled in terrorist atrocities.
* Enforcing regulatory reform.
* Protecting Law enforcement.
* Mandating for every new regulation to eliminate two.
* Defeating ISIS.
* Rebuilding the military.
* Building a border wall.
* Cutting funding for sanctuary cities.
* Approving pipelines.
* Reducing regulations on manufacturers.
* Placing a hiring freeze on federal employees.
* Exiting the US from the TPP.
President Trump and his beautiful family visited leaders around the world. In his first foreign trip as President he went to Saudi Arabia and gave one of the most historic speeches in US history. The President implored the Muslim leaders of 50 countries to get rid of terrorists in their countries and "drive them out". No world leader had ever done this! As a result, the President sided with the leaders of these countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan against terrorism, ISIS and Iran.
In addition to all this, the President has met with many foreign leaders from across the globe on numerous trips and he invited others to his place in Florida, Mar-a-Lago, including Xi from China, Abe from Japan, etc.
The President also pointed out numerous times that the MSM (Main Stream Media) reports only on a made up Russia conspiracy story and ignores these accomplishments. These actions are making the majority of Americans aware of the tremendous bias and falsehoods emanating from the media in the US and abroad. This too is another major Trump accomplishment. Legislation signed
April 19, 2017—President Trump signed an extension of the Veterans Choice Act of 2014, which allowed veterans to seek medical care outside the VA system due to serious VA problems.[6][7]
June 2, 2017—President Trump signed a bill into law giving preference in federal grants to "federal and state law enforcement agencies that hire and train veterans".[8]
June 23, 2017—President Trump signed the Department of Veterans Affairs Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act into law (Trump described the law as "one of the largest reforms to the VA in its history"[9]), which expanded protections for VA whistleblowers, gave the VA the authority to end bonuses to convicted employees, made quicker and easier the process for firing, suspending, and demoting employees.[10]
August 12, 2017—President Trump signed a bill which, in addition to extending the department's Choice Program for an additional six months, authorized $1.8 billion so the VA could lease and open 28 medical facilities and so it could implement a new hiring program.[11]
August 16, 2017—President Trump signed a bill into law expanding GI benefits for veterans, including removing a 15-year time limit on using GI benefits and giving veterans additional payments for science, engineering, and technology courses at universities, among other provisions.[12]
August 23, 2017—President Trump signed a bill into law streamlining and making more convenient the process for veterans to appeal disability benefit claims.[13]
Executive actions
April 27, 2017—President Trump signed an executive order creating an office in the Department of Veterans Affairs to investigate obstacles preventing the VA from firing incompetent employees, and to protect those who reveal cases of incompetence in the department.[14]
June 5, 2017—The Department of Veterans Affairs announced it would adopt the same medical records system as the Defense Department in order to bring better care for veterans.[15][16]
July 7, 2017—The Department of Veterans Affairs made public its disciplinary actions against its employees,[17] and it reported that day having fired over 500 employees since January 2017 and suspending nearly 200.[18]
August 3, 2017—The Trump Administration added several new services to the VA's telehealth program, making it easier for veterans to obtain health care services such as through letting them conduct medical examinations remotely and giving them the ability to schedule appointments electronically. Attorney General Sessions had made numerous policy changes promoting conservative governance in the DOJ by the six-month mark in Trump's presidency.[6] Despite the fears of liberals, the DOJ strongly enforced hate crime laws.[7]
February 2017—Attorney General Sessions rescinded an Obama Administration memo that directed the Bureau of Prisons to begin phasing out private prisons.[8]
February 9, 2017—President Trump signed three executive orders pertaining to law enforcement. The first cracked down and strengthens the law against international crime organizations, the second deals with anti-law enforcement crimes, and third with finding a strategy for reducing crime in general, "including, in particular, illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and violent crime."[9] Attorney General Sessions proceeded to implement the orders.[10]
March 10, 2017—Attorney General Sessions asked the 46 remaining U.S. attorneys appointed by Obama, arguably the most left-wing president in U.S. history, to resign.[11][12] One of those U.S. attorneys was the failed Zachary Fardon, who was lax in his prosecution of gun crimes (Sessions directed the Justice Department to increase prosecutions on gun-law violations and to reinforce harsh sentences for such).[13] When one of those attorneys, Preet Bharara, refused to resign (likely for political gain), he was fired.[14] Later, in May 2017, more Obama holdovers left the Justice Department.[15]
April 3, 2017—Attorney General Sessions ordered the Department of Justice to review Obama's agreements with local police departments. Sessions made this order to give back local control to police departments.[16]
April 13, 2017—The Justice Department prosecuted two doctors and one other for practicing female genital mutilation – the first such prosecutions under a federal law passed by Congress in 1996 prohibiting the practice.[17]
May 9, 2017—Although he previously stated he was not planning on asking him to resign,[18] President Trump, at the recommendation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, fired Obama-appointed FBI director James Comey for being unfit to serve in the position.[19] Democrats and liberals were dismayed at the decision,[20] but it showed that Trump was serious about shaking up D.C. and "draining the swamp."[21]
May 11, 2017—Attorney General Sessions ended Obama and Eric Holder's policy of pursuing light sentences for criminals when he ordered federal prosecutors to pursue "the most serious and readily provable offense" committed by those under prosecution.[22]
June 7, 2017—Attorney General Sessions ended a policy begun by Eric Holder where the Justice Department would reach settlements with companies that required them to pay third-party groups, many of which were left-wing organizations.[23] It was reported in August 2017 that the DOJ was investigating Holder's policy.[24]
June 20, 2017—Attorney General Sessions launched the National Public Safety Partnership as part of a wider DOJ effort at countering violent crime.[25]
June 30, 2017—The Trump Administration sent 20 ATF agents to Chicago to help the city fight gun violence.[26] The local US Attorney said the same day that his office had already prosecuted more Chicago gun cases in 2017 than it had done throughout the entire year 2016.[27]
July 13, 2017—The DOJ announced it had charged 412 people for health care fraud schemes that had defrauded taxpayers of $1.3 billion, something Attorney General Sessions described as "the largest health care fraud takedown operation in American history."[28]
July 19, 2017—Attorney General Sessions reversed Eric Holder's limitation of asset forfeiture, expanding the ability for state and local law enforcement departments to seize property using federal law, rather than just state or local law. Several safeguards were implemented along with this policy.[29]
July 2017—It was reported that federal gun crime prosecutions by the DOJ in the preceding three months increased 23% over the same period in 2016, showing the Justice Department was taking a tough stance on gun crimes.[30]
August 2, 2017—The DOJ launched opioid fraud and abuse unit to fight opioid prescription abuses and the opioid crisis.[31]
August 4, 2017—Attorney General Sessions and the DOJ cracked down on illegal leaks of classified information from within the government, taking actions such as actively pursuing three times more investigations in the first six months of the Trump Administration than had been open at the end of the Obama Administration and by creating a counterintelligence unit in the FBI for these investigations.[32]
August 28, 2017—President Trump signed an executive order reversing Obama-era limitations on police departments' ability to buy surplus military equipment and re-establishing a program ended by the Obama Administration to help the police departments acquire the equipment.[33]
September 15, 2017—The DOJ changed a program run by its Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, turning it from one from reforming police departments and dealing with use of force in the departments to one that would help departments fight violent crime.[34]
September 2017—The DOJ announced it had charged 3,800 suspected gang members from the United States, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, something which showed the DOJ's effort in combating criminal activity and gangs like MS-13 and 18th Street.[35]
October 5, 2017—The DOJ announced several initiatives for reducing violent crime, including recommitting to Project Safe Neighborhoods, a program intended to combat violent crime, and fast-tracking the process of tracing guns used in shootings back to the people who originally purchased them.[36]
October 23, 2017—Attorney General Sessions designated MS-13 as a priority for the DOJ's Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces program, allowing the program to use a wide variety of laws to prosecute MS-13 members. Don't even let me get started on how he saved this country with his great immigration policies.
I just voted for myself for Town Council in a NC municipal election. Sweet!
It's wonderful to run as an unopposed incumbent. My margin of victory will be staggering! LOL!
Congratulations Sheeple!!!
MG – Reagan had character, core beliefs, optimism, and won without getting into the gutter with his opponents. Trump is scum. I will judge his Presidency when it ends because. I still expect him to betray his cheerleaders and go left.
I would not want my wife or daughter to ever be in the same room with him.
If Trump personally cured diabetes, I do not know if I would accept the treatment. Being indebted to him would be worse than this awful disease.
I do find it interesting that the people who praises Trump for the increase in the stock market always made fun of Democrats who praised Obama for the increase in the stock market.
Unfortunately, I will be stuck voting for him in 2020 unless the Democrats are smart enough to lure him back to his roots and nominate him.
Conservapedia? Is there a Liberalpedia for "objective" assessments of Democrats.
Congratulations to Sheeple. It is exciting to vote for yourself. Of course, I always lost so maybe I should have voted for the other candidates. At least I lost a Federal election!
Raw exit poll from Frederick County, Va: G 2 votes, N 0 votes, H 0 votes.
jason Northam 49 Gillespie 46
Hope I am wrong
Bitterlaw, I understand living in philadelphia is really hard on a Republicans mental health. If, you move somewhere like Idaho you would be able to see how great President Trump is. Get out of philly before it eats your brain!!!
Bitterlaw says:
If Trump personally cured diabetes, I do not know if I would accept the treatment.
And you can't refute the claim that Trump has been the most conservative president since Regan. Because objectionably, he has been.
Michigan Guy really thinks Trump is a conservative?
What, he saw the light at 70 after being a liberal all his life?
There is no shrink that can cure that kind of delusion.
Michigan Guy, for your education here are some people that are more conservative than Trump: McCain, Flake, Collins, Murkowski… yeash, all those RINOS are more conservative than Trump and have been for decades.
I think Corey's post above 208 is fair enough.
Sue me.
Exit poll from VA Beach:
Gillepsie 100% / Northam 0%
Sample size: 1
Just voted and there was no line at all. No line of angry Trump haters ready to take their pound of flesh. Good early sign. Other members of my family will vote later today to see how the lines are then.
Nbc asks inappropriate question, but president knocks it out of the park.
"1) VA is a blue state."
Not really true. Clinton won last year by 5.4 points. True. It was also true that Trump was hated in NOVA more than any person who has run on a statewide VA ballot. It was also true that Virginia senator Tim Kaine was on the ballot. This might have hurt the D ticket in rural areas, but no doubt helped in Richmond suburbs and NOVA.
VA is a purple state, and if Trump would finally get around to draining the swamp, then much of the cesspool in NOVA might go back to Chicago where they belong.
Oh, and Michigan Guy, ending TPP is not "conservative". It's protectionist liberal garbage advocated by big labors, straight out of the AFL-CIO playbook.
Republicans were always for free trade. Oh wait, Trump is not a Republican either.
I think trump is more independent.
He has been president for a year. He has been the most conservative president in that year since reagan.
The republicans in congress have go e rino amd wobbly.
One year does not make a trend. Trump could fo rino.
The bushes went and are rinos.
MG – I hope that moving to Idaho would not suddenly make me want my wife and daughter to be alone with Trump. That does not speak well of Idaho residents.
I love living just outside Philadelphia. I have to volunteer at the polls today. I will be voting straight R as I have done in every election since 1986
He by far likes taking questions from the press. With w it was scary and shakier.
Although I am no longer a registered R, I will vote a straight R ticket here, the few Dems that exist in my area think local taxes are too low.
And you can't refute the claim that Trump has been the most conservative president since Regan"
I can refute it. Trump is the most populist President since Teddy Roosevelt, can we agree on that?
I bet MG thinks there will be a border wall paid for by Mexico.
Ted liie walks out of moment of silence on house floor.
He is a loon.
Trump will undoubtedly get a primary challenge and even if the GOP does lose the House, he would be incredibly stupid to morph into liberal positions and open himself up that way.
I agree he generally has been conservative so far but worry about his wanting just to sign things into law that he would just sign anything….
Allegedly being the " most conservative President since Reagan" does not mean somebody is actually conservative.
I can't wait until Trump releases his trillion dollar gift to unions for "infrastructure." It will be fascinating to see what used to be called wasteful spending suddenly becomes "conservative."
I voted for Trump. I never needed to pretend that he was a conservative.
Where has Corey been? He been back?
jason says:
November 7, 2017 at 9:08 am
Michigan Guy really thinks Trump is a conservative?
What, he saw the light at 70 after being a liberal all his life?
There is no shrink that can cure that kind of delusion.
Michigan Guy, for your education here are some people that are more conservative than Trump: McCain, Flake, Collins, Murkowski… yeash, all those RINOS are more conservative than Trump and have been for decades.
Jason, you are exhibiting a classic example of cognitive dissidence.
When reality clashes so strongly against your accepted world view, (Trump governing conservatively), you begin to dismiss the facts (Trump's conservative accomplishments, as listed by MichiganGuy) or invent a new reality entirely that fits your confirmation bias.
And a strong tell for cognitive dissidence is an over-reaction to a simple post, as well as personal insults. Your response has both. Another tell is when someone claims to know a person's mind or motive (Bitterlaw is guilty of this one – claiming to 'know' Trump will betray conservatives).
Dismissing Trump's conservative agenda because you 'know' he will betray it in the future is an example of an absurd rationalization. It is created so that someone can maintain his accepted reality in the face of conflicting facts.
Bitter and Other Lawyers on HHR:
How big is David Boies' ethics problems based on the Ronan Farrow story today? The failing NY Times has requested disbarment in a letter to the NY State Bar.
ObamaCON and Paul think I should not have second amendment rights, they want a society where only these type of people have guns:
The "deranged" gunman who killed 26 churchgoers in Texas was militant atheist who ranted on Facebook about "stupid" religious people.
Devin Kelley, 26, who opened fire on worshippers in First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs yesterday, was described as "creepy" and "weird" by former schoolmates.
Classmate Nina Rosa Nava write on Facebook that the mass murderer used to rant on the social network about his atheist beliefs.
She said: "He was always talking about how people who believe in God were stupid and trying to preach his atheism."
My favorite example of Trump's "conservatism." To add one regulation, you have to cut two. True conservatives would not add any regulations and cut ten or more.
The only thing moron Bitterlaw proves is his damaged ego.
Fu ck ed up by his own hatred.
Nothing complex.
Northam in a squeaker – less than 1%.
I remember as election night returns coming in and when it was looking like Florida and NC would fall for Trump I was still upset as I didn't see any way to 270. Best case scenario seemed to be 260. Still shocked at Pennsylvania
The morons still wrapped around their own stupid definitions of "conservative"?
Move on, cretins.
There's winners and losers. Deal with it.
I cited other news accounts.
JC – The correct term is cognitive dissonance.
Bush 41 and 43 loved regulations. Maybe, not 1000s of new regulation pages, like obama,
The so-called conservatives never cut one regulation.
Let alone two for one new.
Can't even cut Obamacare regulations.
The Competitive Enterprise Institute said that Trump has issued 58 percent fewer major and costly regulations than former President Obama and slashed the Federal Register, the government's rule book, by 32 percent.
The federal register is the key here.
In comparision to president mute and the groper, he has done way more to reduce.
The senile ass-grabber and the cokehead are "conservatives"?
Bitterlaw says:
November 7, 2017 at 9:32 am
My favorite example of Trump's "conservatism." To add one regulation, you have to cut two. True conservatives would not add any regulations and cut ten or more.
Trump has cut something like 10 times more regulations than Regan.
Anyone who takes the moron Bitterlaw seriously should get their heads examined.
He thinks anyone with military service has carte blance for anything.
Even David Kelley.
House rs beleive that her thighness paid off reporters.
Dismissing Trump's conservative agenda because you 'know' he will betray it in the future is an example of an absurd rationalization."
Zzzzzzz…. talk about cognitive dissonance.
I have never dismissed any conservative agenda, I have always stated that I will support Trump where I can. I have made that point often in arguing with Wobbie here many times. I will take what I can get.
And I never said he would "betray us in the future". Trump is not a conservative, never was, never will be.
This is a guy on record as saying Democratic economic policies work better. This is a guy who is on record as saying deficits don't matter, print more money. This is a guy on record who said the government should pay for universal health care as an ENTITLEMENT. This is a guy who has defended partial birth abortion. This is a guy who was registered Democrat when he was 60.
Let's get real here. Let's not get carried away, I realize you like Trump, but don't drift into lalaland.
Bitterlaw says:
November 7, 2017 at 9:36 am
JC – The correct term is cognitive dissonance.
iphone auto correct.
hat her thighness paid off reporters."
Dang, I always thought they did it for the cause.
How disappointing….
Sheeple – It does not look good. However, I do not know if trying to kill a story while also representing the NYT would be deemed unethical or a conflict of interest as long as his relationships were disclosed. More facts are needed.
"True conservatives would not add any regulations and cut ten or more."
-Due to a new HHR definition, Ronald Reagan will be removed from the Conservative Hall-of-Fame.
Once the change is made official, the only person enshrined will be Calvin Coolidge.
Bitterlaw is the one who is engaging in 'mind knowing', as I clearly stated.
And the liberal-ish positions in the past have no bearing to how he is governing now. Trump said he wanted single payer in the past? Okay. Whatever. He obviously doesn't believe so now, and is not pushing for it.
It was you 'conservative' buddies you so proudly listed off – McCain, Murkowski, Collins – who are stopping the repeal of Obamacare. Not Trump.
Trump was a registered democrat in the past>
It has no bearing on how he is governing now. His actions have been 100% conservative.
" More facts are needed."
-Lawyer-speak for "I don't want to be out on that ledge by myself.".
Trump Guru lies again. I never said veterans should get a pass on everything. Any vet who murders people should get the death penalty if it is available in the jurisdiction where the murder occurred.
Hillary Clinton personally approved a plan to have demonstrators in Donald Duck costumes disrupt campaign rallies for Donald Trump — a stunt that triggered an angry confrontation between then DNC chair Donna Brazile and the top lawyer for the Clinton camp.
@263 Bitterlaw, I never believed that Mexico would pay for the wall. Jason, when I said Trump is the most conservative President I should of said his policies have been the most conservative. Whether it is immigration policy or conservative judges or demanding the middle east leaders do more to protect christians there. I can go on and on. Now I know Trump has been a liberal democrat in the past and who know what he would do if, the democrats win the house next year but, right now he is " acting " very conservative.
"His actions have been 100% conservative."
-Schumer and Pelosi made a deal with Trump on DACA.
Over dinner at the White House, they wrote the legislation, passed it thru Congress, and then Trump signed it into law. Mike Pence could not go in to stop them, because Schumer identified as a woman for several hours, which meant it would have been 2 men and 2 women, and Pence could NOT find his wife to ensure he stayed civil.
That was NOT conservative, don'tcha know!
#289 I agree JC
nycmike, is anti-christian. I didn't know that. wow
290 It is lawyer speak for more facts are needed. Has NYC ever had a lawyer do work for him?
"I need you to draw up a contract. Don't worry about the details."
And now deadender mccain has declared the tax bill doa.
jason says:
November 7, 2017 at 9:41 am
This is a guy who was registered Democrat when he was 60.
So, Reagan was a democrat until he was 51. People change.
Wow, sounds like some of the "conservatives" here will say anything to justify the fact they supported a liberal Democrat for President.
"And the liberal-ish positions in the past …."
LOL I love the "ish", does that change things a lot for you?
And btw, the "past" was all you had. Trump never had a record that negated that "past".
But hey, we all have our demons…
And btw, the "past" was all you had. Trump never had a record that negated that "past".
Well, now Trump has a record and it is very conservative.
So, Reagan was a democrat until he was 51. People change.
Zzzzzzz….. that dog won't hunt.
Reagan had decades as a conservative before he became President, including 2 terms as CA governor. He gave hundreds or thousands of speeches as a conservative, wrote hundreds of articles, columns, etc promoting conservatism.
He wans't a conservative for 5 minutes because of political expediency like Trump. He EARNED the right to be called a conservative.
I have defended Trump here non-stop for what I can support him on. Judicial picks. Deregulation. Energy. Rebuilding the military. Attacking the PC culture. I don't deny these are positions conservatives can support.
But compare him to Reagan? No. Conservative? No. Republican? No.
The lying weasel Bitterlaw backtracking again.
So McCain is not off-limits for criticism noe, dolt?
Voters spoke in 2016, in primaries and the general.
Including "conservative" voters.
And told the self-styles "conservative" poseurs to fu ck off.
Voters didn't care for the "conservative" losers like Rubio, Cruz and the assorted lilliputians.
Less said about Walker and Christie the better.
More facts are needed."
-Lawyer-speak for "I don't want to be out on that ledge by myself.".
Bitter, you have to understand NYC has always been against facts, so getting more of them is a no-no.
Silly debate on who is a conservative at heart. Who cares? What they DO is what matters. Whining about whether someone is REALLY conservative makes one sound like a liberal saying "well, his heart is in the right place".
Right now Trump is acting the conservative (I wouldn't be shocked if that ended), and has had opportunities to go soft on guns and hasn't. Meanwhile McCain is getting in the way of tax cuts and Obamacare repeal. Well, at least his heart is in the right place…..
Or Mr. "Medicaid Expansion is in the Bible" John Kasich.
The true "conservative".
nd told the self-styles "conservative" poseurs"
You certainly know how to describe yourself….
306 – don't over-play your hand as you start talking about the GOP primary. Trump won the nomination because there were 17 GOP candidates and Trump had the benefit of a faithful following of roughly one-third of the vote. The others were all splintered. Had the primary pool been Trump, Cruz, Gilmore, Santorum and Pataki, then Cruz would have been your nominee. Had it been Trump, Rubio, Gilmore, Santorum and Pataki, then Rubio would have been your nominee. Yes, Trump won the GOP primary fair and square and the others lost. But don't re-write history and say voters didn't care for these conservatives, because we all know why it is Trump emerged and none of the others could.
I don't identify with you, for sure.
And the lying crap-weasels like Rubio and Kasich.
Those are your monkeys.
If and buts are all you have. You are the one re-writing history.
If the GOP primary was between Trump and Cruz, Trump would have won in February.
Apart from Cruz, the others you name had less than 1% support. Combined.
And Cruz was poison in every place except the bible belt.
I do not like Karate-Chop Kasich. I thought he was a very poor fit for the nomination and I did not like him. But I did like Rubio, though I like Scott Walker much more. You don't like Rubio, and that is your privilege. But don't pretend the average Republican out there doesn't like Rubio.
Rubio – went head to head in his own sate. Stomped 2 to 1.
In his own state.
Right now Trump is acting the conservative (I wouldn't be shocked if that ended)"
I agree he is pushing a conservative position on some issues, not all of them.
That's fine. What I object is calling someone who has bee a lifelong liberal a conservative.
Rubio – went head to head in his own sate. Stomped 2 to 1.
In his own state."
Yeah, and then he got a lot more votes than Trump in the GE.
Fact suck, huh?
Different race against different candidate, moron.
How do you function?
Jason, chcicon.
Same point here. Surprised that he is governing conservatively.
Will it last? Tbd.
Did Rubio run against Hillary in Nov?
You morons keep conflating different races.
That is why you are surprised when candidate X's voters don't go to candidate Y one-to-one when X drops.
(They do, in spreadsheets, but not in real life.)
DW, people love to reinvent history.
But they are not going to reinvent Trump as a conservative while I am here.
Jason, chcicon.
Same point here. Surprised that he is governing conservatively.
Will it last? Tbd."
I hope so.
People who re-invent history to position losers like Rubio and Cruz as winners complaining about re-inventing history?
Ha ha ha ha
People who think a Senate race against Patrick Murphy is the same as a presidential race against Hillary.
The same people who think that, if a libertarian is not in the race, 100% of the libertarian's vote would go to the republican.
I am sure a dog-catcher some place got a bigger portion of the vote that Trump got.
What a champion!
"nycmike, is anti-christian. I didn't know that. wow"
First off, GFY!
Secondly, please read it again, and note the sarcasm. I most certainly am NOT anti-christian, I respect Mike Pence even more today, considering all of the Hollywood/media/sports stories out there about inappropriate actions. I am glad the Vice President recognizes the fact that even a rumor can ruin a reputation earned over a lifetime.
Also, again, please note the sarcasm in saying that legislation can be written, passed, and signed into law by 3 people. It does NOT work that way, despite what Robbie, "CG", Bitterlaw, and jason seem to believe.
Russian agent brazile theowing more shade
314 – I am not rewriting history. I affirmed the history of what happened. You are the one trying to re-write it saying "Voters didn't care for the 'conservative' losers like Rubio, Cruz"
That is false. A naked attempt to re-write history.
75.7% of GOP IA voters said NO to Trump.
64.8% of GOP NH voters said NO to Trump.
67.5% of GOP SC voters said NO to Trump.
54.3% of GOP NV voters said NO to Trump.
56.5% of GOP AL voters said NO to Trump.
66.4% of GOP AK voters said NO to Trump.
67.2% of GOP AR voters said NO to Trump.
61% of GOP GA voters said NO to Trump.
51% of GOP MA voters said NO to Trump.
89% of GOP MN voters said NO to Trump.
72% of GOP OK voters said NO to Trump.
61% of GOP TN voters said NO to Trump.
73% of GOP TX voters said NO to Trump.
67% of GOP VT voters said NO to Trump.
65% of GOP VA voters said NO to Trump.
77% of GOP KS voters said NO to Trump.
64% of GOP KY voters said NO to Trump.
59% of GOP LA voters said NO to Trump.
67% of GOP ME voters said NO to Trump.
57% of GOP HI voters said NO to Trump.
72% of GOP ID voters said NO to Trump.
63% of GOP MI voters said NO to Trump.
53% of GOP MS voters said NO to Trump.
Even after it was clear that Trump would win the nomination, he still couldn't get over 50% in a state:
54% of GOP FL voters said NO to Trump.
61% of GOP IL voters said NO to Trump.
59% of GOP MO voters said NO to Trump.
60% of GOP NC voters said NO to Trump.
64% of GOP OH voters said NO to Trump.
54% of GOP AZ voters said NO to Trump.
86% of GOP UT voters said NO to Trump.
65% of GOP WI voters said NO to Trump.
It wasn't until Trump reached his home state of NY, and had functionally wrapped up the nomination that he finally got more than 50% of the GOP vote.
So don't rewrite history and tell me the GOP based didn't care for Rubio or Cruz. In reality they liked them (and the rest of the GOP candidates) collectively MORE than Trump. That is fact.
You are leaning on polls.
Same mistake as before.
Check the results.
How many voters in each stae siad NO to Rubio? To Cruz? To Jeb? To Kasich?
All so-called "conservatives".
Morons like you keep assuming that, for example, if Cruz dropped, all his voters would go to Rubio.
And if Rubio dropped, then all his votes would go to Cruz.
Reality shows that, as the losers dropped one by one, their voters splut to the remaining.
332 – you were the one who cast this question as to who the GOP liked in the primaries, Trump or the others (as represented by the two you named, Cruz and Rubio). So I have shown you the data, that when you compare Trump to the GOP field, the VAST MAJORITY OF GOP VOTER REJECTED TRUMP and embraced someone else in the field. These are facts you cannot escape.
That is why, DW, you could never figure out, during the primaries, how Trump would reach 1250 delegates.
The only thing your data shows is, Trump was the best liked among GOP voters, from day one, and as the dead flies accumulated, the living voters accrued to Trump.
I hate Terry McAuliffe and hope we can pull this out.
334 – no one here has said that. Stop with the straw men. If you want to talk about reality, then ask yourself why Trump couldn't get more than 24.3% of the vote in IA. Why couldn't he get more than 35.2% in NH?
Furthermore, if you go back and study polling from the 2016 GOP primary, and locate polls showing 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc., you would find that for most of the GOP base, first and second choices did not include Trump for those whose first choice was not Trump.
Do you even understand what BEST means?
It would make sense if second and third choices had any relevance.
Stick to reality, not alt-primaries.
"334 – no one here has said that."
That's what all your alt-scenarios are based on.
If X was not in the race, Y and not Trump would win.
336 – not correct…I was very much concerned about how easily he could reach 1250 because of the splintered GOP field. Trump was NOT the 'best liked' among GOP voters.
Go back and look at first choice, second choice polling. You might learn something. Also don't forget in the open primaries gleeful Ds would gladly cross over to vote for Trump because they (wrongly) believed that he was the easy out in the general.
Check the record in open vs closed primaries.
No difference.
"Trump was NOT the 'best liked' among GOP voters."
As I said, you don't know what BEST means. It is a comparative term, just a hint.
"I was very much concerned about how easily he could reach 1250…"
No you were not…
Check your archives in Feb/Mar 2016…multiple posts daily with breakdowns of how Trump would have difficulty reaching 1250, with such and such percentage of remaining delegates.
Sean Spicer was just on FOX Business talking about the strategic advantages and investments the RNC has put in place since 2012. He predicted a G win; hope he's right!
I talked about the ACTUAL primaries and gave you the ACTUAL data from ACTUAL primaries and that data shows overwhelmingly the GOP voters preferred a candidate NOT named Donald Trump.
Your illogical syllogism is like this:
1) Trump won the nomination
2) Other Candidates lost the nomination
3) Therefore, GOP voters loved Trump more than each individual GOP candidate or all of them as a whole.
The data does not hold up that conclusion.
Here is a logical syllogism based on what actually happened:
1) Trump won the nomination on roughly 33% of the vote in states where the nomination was still in doubt.
2) Other candidates, who as a whole were favored by roughly 67% of the vote in states where the nomination was still in doubt, lost the nomination.
3) The majority of GOP voters wanted ('liked' if you will) someone other than Trump as shown in the actual vote totals of the states.
Trump, I invite you to be a gracious winner. Many of us here were gracious losers when it came to the fact that Trump ascended to the presidency. I am naturally risk-averse so I never wanted Trump to be the nominee. But in the end I held my nose and voted for him against Clinton, not because I liked him but because I hated Clinton. I have repeatedly said in the last year that I am hoping he does better than he knows how and surrounds himself with great people. I am thrilled he picked Gorsuch and I have said that is a great start. I hope he moves more and more conservative and not get drawn in by Schumer and Pelosi.
So in that I am trying to be gracious and give Trump a chance, do you think you could also be gracious as the winner and not re-write history and try to claim that GOP primary voters did not care for Rubio and Cruz?
You could actually gain more respect here if you did.
Jeff Flake is the new Chuck Hagel
347. Interesting Todd. Hope Sean is right also
First off, GFY!"
Looks like NYC wants to be an A-hole…
Since MD has resigned……
Trump says:
November 7, 2017 at 10:28 am
The same people who think that, if a libertarian is not in the race, 100% of the libertarian's vote would go to the republican."
Actually, I agree with you on that one…wrong again.
"Soccer Moron has a point.
But it doesn't mean they are not idiots for helping Northam win."
Yes I am right. Gillespie is going to win.
Trump, I invite you to be a gracious winner."
He is not a winner.
He predicted Trump would lose, and that his only value was that he was going to take down the whole GOP with him.
Actually, Soccer Moron was wrong on BOTH counts.
He also stated many times he had no stake in the political process.
Now he is pretending to be a Trump supporter, complete BS.
Soccer Moron is trying to re-invent himself too.
Won't work.
Evan McMullin
.@EdWGillespie was one of the good guys, but now he peddles fear and white nationalism. It's better for VA and America that he not prevail.
5:16 AM · Nov 7, 2017
This guy is a fraud.
The lying weasel Bitterlaw"
Not worth much, considering the source. Sorry.
Yep, unfortunately McMullin is another conservative that can't accept the results of the election.
Mcmuffin is and was a plant.
This is where the russian investigation is going.
356 – oh that's right. I hardly pay attention to him and forgot that Soccer guru was the same as 'Trump'
Anecdotal accounts here in VA Beach thus far is a very light turnout. Very interesting. Also interesting that the weather will turn foul by end of work day, which might further dampen turnout between 5 and 7 pm.
DW – You are asking somebody who does nothing but insult others to be gracious. Trump Guru has no interest in discussion.
He will not call me several different names in 3…2…1…
Dw, i read that n va is due for adverse weather, which could damoen turnout for the drat.
Jason – Trump has really dried up as a source of points.
"So in that I am trying to be gracious and give Trump a chance, do you think you could also be gracious as the winner and not re-write history and try to claim that GOP primary voters did not care for Rubio and Cruz?"
I am not surprised you do not see the contradiction.
If GOP primary voters "cared" about Rubio and Cruz, one of them would have been the nominee. That's real history. Remember, each candidate faced the same field at the start.
Only in your alt-history do candidates who voters "care for" keep losing.
Maybe "care for" has a different meaning to you.
Bitter, Trump is no worse than Robbie. But you defend Robbie, who insults everybody.
Try to be consistent, and did you really say that if Trump cured diabetes, you would not accept the cure?
Please tell me that was madeup by some other poster.
Tina, so GOPe McMullin trashes GOPe Gillespie?
Egg hates Trump so much that he trashes a Fellow Moderate. sounds like Robbie
Bitterlaw is a hateful moron who lives by his damaged psyche.
That's the only consistency he has.
Maybe Polaris is at 30,000 feet above NOVA seeding clouds!
McMuffin is a conservative. Probably lifelong.
And another but&-hurt loser.
Ironic. Many of the posters here who predicted a Trump victory, predict Gillespie to win too.
Most of the anti trumpers calling it for Northam. Hmmm….
Jonesy, mcmuffin is and was a drat plant.
He is not gope even though, in many instances, gope act like drats, or vice versa.
Jason – Trump has really dried up as a source of points."
I know… the glory days of "La Raza Pimp" are over…
Nothing lasts forever.
I like bitter. He just tends to take both sides of the argument too much. Typical Eastern Lawyer. LOL
A Ed G win really hold off retirements by the GOP, and depress Democrats.
Trump does not matter today, only Va
Most of the anti trumpers calling it for Northam."
I was a never-Trumper.
I want Gillespie to win. I think he will come up short because I don't like the fact the polls that favored him moved away from him over the weekend, while those that favored Northam moved towards Gillespie, converging on a narrow loss. I hope the polls are wrong.
If you think this is a conspiracy, you are an idiot.
Right, I think McMullin has a lifelong record as a conservative.
The fact that he is now peddling Dem talking points does not change that.
Key to today is how well Gillespie does in Loudoun County and Prince William County.
Clinton 55.06
Trump 38.21
Prince William:
Clinton 57.6
Trump 36.51
Gillespie 49.1
Warner 48.6
Prince William:
Gillespie 47.5
Warner 50.4
and here is the comparison for Fairfax County:
Clinton 64.43
Trump 28.61
Gillespie 40.2
Warner 57.7
So the above data is pretty much all you need to track against the results tonight to know where the race is headed.
forgot that Soccer guru was the same as 'Trump'
Yep, name changes cannot hide the stupidity.
So Gillespie would have to actually win Loudoun, unless he over performs in other areas.
367 – ok, so you are not really interested in honest history of what actually happened. Thanks for letting us know.
Dw, RRH minions saying low turnout in Fairfax county. who knows if true, but who does that help?
I think Gillespie will do better than Trump did in Fairfax, that's almost a no brainer. But it looks like he would need like 42%, which would be tough.
Low turnout in Fairfax would help Gillespie you would assume.
378. Just made a point Jason, did not call you out, but save the idiot remarks for those who deserve it, like Robbie.
382 – of course turnout matters too. Loudoun and Prince William accounted for just shy of 100,000 votes each in 2014.
384 – yes.
"The fact that he is now peddling Dem talking points does not change that."
-He is doing more than "peddling Dem talking points".
He is actively trying to DEFEAT Republicans IN A GENERAL ELECTION.
Low turnout anywhere in NOVA helps Gillespie.
I disagree with Robbie often. I respect that he fights even when I disagree with him.
As for the diabetes comment, it is mine. I would hate to be indebted to him. I also would not accept a cure if it came from stem cell research from destroyed embryos or aborted fetuses.
Did I miss anybody?
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
DW: Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3
ToddMcCain: Gillespie 50 Northam 49 Hyra 1
JC: I predict Gillespie 49 – 47
Dblaikie: Gillespie +2
MichiganGuy: Gillespie 49% Northampton 47%
Bitterlaw: Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
EML (aka Emil): Northam 49.3 Gillespie 46.1
Sheeple, Jr: VA-Gov- 50.5 Northam, 48 Gillespie, 1.5 Other
Jason: Northam 49 Gillespie 46
GPO: Northam by <1%
"CG": Northam win
" I also would not accept a cure if it came from stem cell research from destroyed embryos or aborted fetuses."
-What if it came from adult stem cells?
I may or may not be available tonight for results analysis. So here are the web pages you need:
For actual results coming in that shows county breakdown:
For 2014 Senate results (Warner vs. Gillespie):
For 2016 POTUS results:
NYC accuses me of not reading. I said embryos and fetuses.
Since adult stem cells would not be in those categories, I would take that cure.
392. Of course I agree on the embryos Bitter.
Whatever happens tonight, no doubt that HHR has done a great job covering this race.
Excellent work DW, and good luck to your state tonight
#393, missed me.
I had it:
Northam: 51%
Gillespie: 47%
Hyra: 2%
I guess my thinking was that many parents with children of Juvenile diabetes would not care about politics, and readily accept the cure at any rate. The aborted stem cells are a non starter though for sure
time to move on though
"NYC accuses me of not reading. I said embryos and fetuses."
-Dude, Chillax!
Correct, you spoke about "stem cells" from 2 sources.
THEN, I asked about a third source for stem cells.
393. Sean predicted a Gillespie win also.
Good to see Corey picking Northam, he is always wrong
We need dw here tonight.
Sheeple makes me nervous. He did great work on the GA-6, and all polling data.
Sorry, Waingro.
Did I miss anybody? Please ADD your name and prediction to the list, and put it in the proper place (G winning on top, Northam winning on bottom)
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
DW: Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3
ToddMcCain: Gillespie 50 Northam 49 Hyra 1
JC: I predict Gillespie 49 – 47
Dblaikie: Gillespie +2
MichiganGuy: Gillespie 49% Northampton 47%
Bitterlaw: Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
EML (aka Emil): Northam 49.3 Gillespie 46.1
Sheeple, Jr: VA-Gov- 50.5 Northam, 48 Gillespie, 1.5 Other
Jason: Northam 49 Gillespie 46
GPO: Northam by <1%
"CG": Northam win
Waingro: Northam: 51% Gillespie: 47% Hyra: 2%
What gets me is that Chicago type corruption of NoVa.
Holding votes till the end in the Prius Trunks.
Trump is not a conservative. The actual accomplishments Trump has made are overwhelmingly conservative. Conservatives like Rubio were backing off TPP… who would trust anything negotiated by Obama?
The bickering at the margins is so dumb.
called someone I know to remind to go vote–he had forgotten it was election day–so another vote I helped get for Gillespie.
Mike. I say Gillespie 49% to 48%.
I will follow DW and Wes into any Fox Hole
Why the Left Has Been So Wrong About the Trump Boom
Did I miss anybody? Please ADD your name and prediction to the list, and put it in the proper place (G winning on top, Northam winning on bottom)
mnw: Gillespie +1. Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3.
NYCmike: Gillespie +2 Gillespie 49.4; Northam 47.4; Hyra 3.2.
DW: Gillespie 49; Northam 48; Hyra 3
ToddMcCain: Gillespie 50 Northam 49 Hyra 1
JC: I predict Gillespie 49 – 47
Dblaikie: Gillespie +2
MichiganGuy: Gillespie 49% Northampton 47%
Jonesy: Gillespie 49% to Northam 48%.
Bitterlaw: Northam+ 2.5 – Northam 50 Gillespie 47.5 Moron protest vote 2.5
EML (aka Emil): Northam 49.3 Gillespie 46.1
Sheeple, Jr: VA-Gov- 50.5 Northam, 48 Gillespie, 1.5 Other
Jason: Northam 49 Gillespie 46
GPO: Northam by <1%
"CG": Northam win
Waingro: Northam: 51% Gillespie: 47% Hyra: 2%
411. Mike, Sean predicted a Gillespie win
Wes predicted a Gillespie win too mike, I think 49 to 47
I'm in the DW & Wes foxhole with Jonesy. I'll bring the bourbon.
Also, I do not see how renegotiating trade deals and enforcing them is an offense to conservatism…
Trump has not pushed tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism since the campaign.
Remember to ignore exit polling tonight. It will show Northam way ahead–winning easily. But they never bother to exit poll all the far-flung rural places.
413 – yes.
As a Type 1 diabetic, I would not accept a "Trump" cure. Not worth it. I would not hol others to my standard.
Fair enough Bitter.
Where is Robbie's prediction? that way he cannot weasel his way out of actually taking a stand
414. Rock on Chicon.
DW, let me add this to pages you could watch:
Jonesy he'll be here tonight or tomorrow talking about Ed winning despite Trump or how Trump caused him to lose.
In a new Esquire article, Bannon says Drudge talked him off ledge after first exits.
Drudge says corporate media is behind them, and says they want Gillespie to lose, to go after Trump
422. Yep.
Other 1.9
Dw, RRH minions saying low turnout in Fairfax county. who knows if true, but who does that help?
That was me, completely making stuff up, proving the point that election day anecdotes are worthless.
It appears Martha McSally has decided to run for Arizona Senate. I hope she wins, but it probably means the loss of her House seat. That probably factored into her decision though. In 2018, it will probably be easier to win statewide in Arizona than to win her House district.
All that said, I'm sure the SEND A MESSAGE crowd is already sharpening their knives to ruin McSally and prop up Chemtrail Kelly, right NYCMike?
"As a Type 1 diabetic, I would not accept a "Trump" cure."
BS. If not, diabetes is not your problem. It is a whipping boy for an underlying psychological issue that you do not care to address… but I'm not judging you for it. Hopefully this is just internet tough guy talk.
Jonesy says:
November 7, 2017 at 12:50 pm
Fair enough Bitter.
Where is Robbie's prediction? that way he cannot weasel his way out of actually taking a stand
– I see Trump's court jester is popping off again. Not a surprise to be honest. His orange hero is at 37% in the polls so he needs to find a distraction.
As for the Virginia governor's race. I have not made a single comment about it, I haven't followed the race, nor have I followed the polling. I am not in a position to make a prediction and I won't make a prediction.
I hope Gillispie wins. He's a great candidate for traditional conservative Republicanism.
And I say that because I care about you… it is sappy and surreal, but I am sure I am not alone. It is weird to think about, but I genuinely view you as I would a friend I've known for ten years.
" It is a whipping boy for an underlying psychological issue …"
Bitterlaw is one mess of a psychological issue…
There is nothing else there.
429 – crafty. This will allow you to blame Trump tomorrow no matter the outcome. Well done.
Chicon says:
November 7, 2017 at 12:52 pm
Jonesy he'll be here tonight or tomorrow talking about Ed winning despite Trump or how Trump caused him to lose.
– Why don't you go choke on something orange.
I have no opinion about this race and I don't believe it has any bearing on next year's elections just as the 2013 VA race had no bearing on the 2014 elections.
The national atmosphere has definitely been a hindrance to Gillispie, but it's a stretch to say Trump would be responsible if Gillispie loses.
Jeff B back in black?Verified account @EsotericCD
Jeff B back in black Retweeted (((Ben Tribbett)))
A Dem partisan, but a very well-informed one.
Jeff B back in black added,
(((Ben Tribbett))) @notlarrysabato
Between absentee voting and this morning's first three hours, Republicans have a BIG deficit to overcome midday.
11:34 AM – 7 Nov 2017
Chicon says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:02 pm
429 – crafty. This will allow you to blame Trump tomorrow no matter the outcome. Well done.
– Read 433, Trump shill.
By the way, are you still pimping Hannity's story that the DNC killed Seth Rich? You believed that nonsense last Spring just like you believed the BS that Obama used British intelligence to spy on Trump.
"The national atmosphere has definitely been a hindrance to Gillispie…"
Facts not in evidence, cretin Robbie.
By the way, are you still pimping Hannity's story that the DNC killed Seth Rich?"
I think that is Donna Brazile…
"Between absentee voting and this morning's first three hours, Republicans have a BIG deficit to overcome midday…."
How would anyone know anything about "this morning's first three hours"?
Not sure about absentee voting either.
Any data, cretin?
Mr. Vito – GFY
I think of you the same way.
I have had diabetes for 35 years. If the price of a cure was having to thank a man I view as scum every day for the rest of my life, I would hate it. I am not sure it is worth it.
Send a message
Hill chump.
The rino in az is not running, 18 percent approval rate. There needs to be a credible replacement candidate. Wes mentioned ine, and i agree with that pick, or the az governor.
It will be a tough seat to retain.
435 – don't be silly. It wasn't the dnc. It was Hillary herself.
Let me clarify.
If Northam wins, Rs are doomed until 2050, maybe beyond, thanks to Trump. He is toxic to Rs, and the fact Rs won 5 special elections in a row despite his endorsement is a coincidence.
If Gillespie wins, it has NOTHING to with Trump, all elections are local.
"…it's a stretch to say Trump would be responsible if Gillispie loses."
Technically, Gillespie has already shown that he can lose all by himself.
"Trump has not pushed tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism since the campaign."
-jason must have used "alternate facts" to back up what he said…..
82K absentees have been received.
500K in 2016
121K in 2013
Absentees are heavily Deomcratic
jason says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:07 pm
By the way, are you still pimping Hannity's story that the DNC killed Seth Rich?"
I think that is Donna Brazile…
– She's an idiot as well.
Donna brazile is a russian agent.
The drats are eating each other.
Brazile is still dirty. She was behind the allegation that ex president groper bush had a secret bimbette, during dukakis campaign and was fired.
She willingly handed ober those debate questions to her thighness.
Take what she says with a grain of salt. If she is upset, she is likely most upset with forme dnc head, whatchamacalit.
Brazile knows more than you do, cretin Robbie.
That's a given.
"EML says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:11 pm
82K absentees have been received.
500K in 2016
121K in 2013
Absentees are heavily Deomcratic"
So, does this suggest Dems are underperforming 2013?
"If the price of a cure was having to thank a man I view as scum every day for the rest of my life…"
You don't thank the man. You go to church and thank God "from whom all blessings flow". It's not the first time you would have received a benefit from someone you detest.
"All that said, I'm sure the SEND A MESSAGE crowd is already sharpening their knives to ruin McSally and prop up Chemtrail Kelly, right NYCMike?"
-Seeing as how I am called "NYCmike", you may be better off asking someone from Arizona, who can actually vote in that state.
Maybe they voted for the last 3 decades for candidates backed by the party, like John McCain, and Flake, and they are so happy because those 2 ALWAYS govern exactly how they campaign……
She also blamed seth richs death on the russians. Brazile is not that bright.
EML says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:11 pm
82K absentees have been received.
500K in 2016
121K in 2013
Absentees are heavily Deomcratic"
Interesting. And 2013 ended up being closer than expected.
That suggests drats are underperforming in the absentee?
"– She's an idiot as well."
-The only person Robbie has NOT called an idiot, other than JEB!2016 and his family members, of course, is……Hillary.
Scott Wong?Verified account @scottwongDC 2m2 minutes ago
Confirmed: AZ lawmakers tell me @RepMcSally (R-AZ) will run for @JeffFlake's open Senate seat #AZSEN
1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
James brower tweeted that one of the podesta bros was secretly indicted and now has immunity deal. Fwiw
I like McSally a lot, but I think winning the AZ GOP primary in this environment might be difficult.
Hillary is swell.
-jebots and mcstuffin
I don't put much stock in election day claims about absentees and how many voted by such-and-such time of day and so on. The fact is, this morning in VA it wasn't raining, and people check the forecast and saw they better vote before work unless they want to get wet at the polls after work.
In my own precinct which is a mix of white, asian, black, and hispanic, in that order, I saw NO LINE whatsoever this morning at a time that would be optimal for people coming out early to vote.
Wobbles says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:10 pm
Let me clarify.
If Northam wins, Rs are doomed until 2050, maybe beyond, thanks to Trump. He is toxic to Rs, and the fact Rs won 5 special elections in a row despite his endorsement is a coincidence.
If Gillespie wins, it has NOTHING to with Trump, all elections are local.
– Hi everyone, it's Jason. I've still got a massive case of butt hurt because my Latino dreamboat Marco failed in the primary. It hit me hard that my little guy used his one shot to stop Trump to talk about Trump's hand size and Trump wetting his pants.
In fact, the last 24 months have been terrible for me. I also showed myself to be a total fraud. I spent 18 months attacking Trump, but then he won with a R next to his name so now I feel I have to support everything he does. I even supported his tweet about Mika bleeding from her facelift.
So now you see why I used fake screen names. I need to deflect. Look over there. Don't look at my fraudulence.
Personally, I would rather have McSally keep her House seat, and have a nice primary between Ward, DeWitt, and the other name mentioned several times earlier in the year.
Chicon says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:09 pm
435 – don't be silly. It wasn't the dnc. It was Hillary herself.
– And yet you fell for it. I'd be embarrassed as well and want to change the subject or pretend it was all a joke.
Wp analysis, trumps wins the 2016 election again over her thighness.
At 40 percent.
He probably takes nh and mn.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:16 pm
"– She's an idiot as well."
-The only person Robbie has NOT called an idiot, other than JEB!2016 and his family members, of course, is……Hillary.
– If someone believes the DNC had Seth Rich murdered, as Hannity promoted and Chicon fell for, then that person is an idiot.
"Latino dreamboat Marco"
Waingro says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:18 pm
I like McSally a lot, but I think winning the AZ GOP primary in this environment might be difficult.
– The case can be made the statewide race is easier than her House seat. Of course with Chemtrail Kelly in the primary receiving the support of the radio hosts, she may not get past the first hurdle.
Seth w@s done in by the muh russians.
Latino dreamboat marco.
Sounds racist btw.
I'm interested in those absentee ballot numbers.
The head of the DNC, Donna Brazile, states in her book that she is worried about her own safety because of the Seth Rich murder, and you mention Sean Hannity…..and a poster from HHR named Chicon.
How about you simply deal with the fact that the party you wanted to run the Executive Branch of the United States was itself being run by the person who thinks the UNSOLVED murder of a fellow Democrat worker is suspicious?!?
Is Lord asehat gonna have exit #s for va?
" Of course with Chemtrail Kelly in the primary receiving the support of the radio hosts, she may not get past the first hurdle."
-Robbie never met a candidate he liked who was ever responsible for their own defeat!
"Voters didn't care for the 'conservative' losers like Rubio, Cruz"
"the VAST MAJORITY OF GOP VOTER REJECTED TRUMP"
I don't support either side of this argument. Rubio and Cruz got votes BECAUSE they were viewed as the most conservative candidates. Conservatism was certainly cared about in the primary.
Polls consistently showed Trump as a second or third choice of many of those other candidates, so it is not fair to say Trump was REJECTED by them.
Trump was popular because he was pre-ideological and could take and throw a punch. People could project their favorite cause onto him and imagine him fighting for it. Romney was as squeaky clean as you could get… but Dems managed to turn him into Satan.
Larry Schweikart
Larry Schweikart
@rushlimbaugh reading poll showing Cankles would lose today BIGGER than she did in 16. Cankles has lost 12% of D
Just as I've been saying.
This cannot be, said one jebot to the other.
"Is Lord asehat gonna have exit #s for va?"
Tina says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:24 pm
Latino dreamboat marco.
Sounds racist btw.
– Yes, because referring to Marco Rubio, a Latino, as a Latino is racist.
Are you now a snowflake in need of a safe space, Tinfoil?
So, does this suggest Dems are underperforming 2013?
No, it means anecdotal stories about turnout are, and have always been, useless.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:29 pm
" Of course with Chemtrail Kelly in the primary receiving the support of the radio hosts, she may not get past the first hurdle."
-Robbie never met a candidate he liked who was ever responsible for their own defeat!
– No. It's more about the fact I don't trust voters like you to make smart choices.
Right, eml. Thanks.
Actually, Robbie, the "dreamboat" part would be considered stereotypical by many of the people in the media, whom you worship on a daily basis.
And, Trump routinely mocks those "snowflakes" as he should, and you get mad at him for doing so. SO UN-PRESIDENTIAL!
"– No. It's more about the fact I don't trust voters like you to make smart choices."
THe latino dreamboat part is not necessary,
The drat loon is a racist.
Pick up the pace, Wes.
"Also don't forget in the open primaries gleeful Ds would gladly cross over to vote for Trump because they (wrongly) believed that he was the easy out in the general."
Trump spanked Rubio in the closed primary here in Florida. I supported Rubio, but facts are facts. Many other Ds changed their registration in counties like Volusia, Flagler, etc. to vote for the guy, and that enthusiasm clearly carried over to the general, where they creamed Romney's numbers there.
"Nicky numbers" was right all along and I am really upset people like MD chased him away.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:33 pm
"– No. It's more about the fact I don't trust voters like you to make smart choices."
– Angle? COD? Buck? Akin? Mourdock? Any of them ring a bell?
Voters chose John McCain in 2008. He lost. Robbie rejoiced.
Voters chose Mitt Romney in 2012. He lost. Robbie rejoiced.
Voters chose Donald J Trump in 2016. He won. Robbie imploded.
Meatloaf said "2 out of 3 ain't bad!".
Further re brazile
Look how she is lying here
Mr.Vito says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:35 pm
"Also don't forget in the open primaries gleeful Ds would gladly cross over to vote for Trump because they (wrongly) believed that he was the easy out in the general."
Trump spanked Rubio in the closed primary here in Florida. I supported Rubio, but facts are facts. Many other Ds changed their registration in counties like Volusia, Flagler, etc. to vote for the guy, and that enthusiasm clearly carried over to the general, where they creamed Romney's numbers there.
"Nicky numbers" was right all along and I am really upset people like MD chased him away.
– Trump also benefited in states like Florida from early voting. For starters, the "never Trump" movement didn't get started until after voting in Florida had begun. Look at the number of votes Jeb received in that primary. Had there only been election day voting in Florida and other places, the margins (probably not the outcomes) might have been different and that would have made a difference in April voting.
"EML says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:30 pm
So, does this suggest Dems are underperforming 2013?
No, it means anecdotal stories about turnout are, and have always been, useless."
I thought those were real numbers, not anecdotes.
It is clear that brazile knew about thighness paying for the russian dossier.
Megan mccain was helpful here
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:37 pm
Voters chose John McCain in 2008. He lost. Robbie rejoiced.
Voters chose Mitt Romney in 2012. He lost. Robbie rejoiced.
Voters chose Donald J Trump in 2016. He won. Robbie imploded.
Meatloaf said "2 out of 3 ain't bad!".
– I never rejoiced about McCain losing so stop lying.
I had a questionable relationship with Romney, but still wanted him to win.
I hated and continue to hate Trump.
Mr.Vito says:
November 7, 2017 at 1:35 pm
"Also don't forget in the open primaries gleeful Ds would gladly cross over to vote for Trump because they (wrongly) believed that he was the easy out in the general."
Trump spanked Rubio in the closed primary here in Florida. I supported Rubio, but facts are facts. Many other Ds changed their registration in counties like Volusia, Flagler, etc. to vote for the guy, and that enthusiasm clearly carried over to the general, where they creamed Romney's numbers there."
Don't confuse the morons with reality. They have to cling to their myths that somehow D's gave the GOP nomination to Trump.
spent 18 months attacking Trump, but then he won with a R next to his name so now I feel I have to support everything he does."
Wobbie is a compulsive liar.
If you check earlier posts of mine as recent as today you will see I don't even think Trump is Republican, so I could care less if he "has an R next to his name"
As far as supporting everything he does, that is of course another huge lie.
"He wans't a conservative for 5 minutes because of political expediency like Trump. He EARNED the right to be called a conservative.
I have defended Trump here non-stop for what I can support him on. Judicial picks. Deregulation. Energy. Rebuilding the military. Attacking the PC culture. I don't deny these are positions conservatives can support.
But compare him to Reagan? No. Conservative? No. Republican? No."
Oh, and Michigan Guy, ending TPP is not "conservative". It's protectionist liberal garbage advocated by big labors, straight out of the AFL-CIO playbook."
Finally, yes, I support his tweeting because the MSM is so biased against him. It's one of the few ways he can send HIS message out Mika is a pseudo journalist who has personally attacked him as mentally challenged, so commenting on her bleeding face is actually not as bad as what she said about him. However, I did think his attack on Meghan Kelly in the debate was over the top, and said so.
So why don't you take all your lies and GFY.
Jonesy, here are reports that the ag never recused himself from u1
If true, it is important. I do not think mueller and rosenstein can look at it because of their for,er roles in it. Recusal would be in their interests.
Hmm, the day after the 2012election, a troll wrote, i am glad romeny lost.
I think troll wanted the broken convention, or was 2008?
So many times wrong.
Maybe they voted for the last 3 decades for candidates backed by the party, like John McCain, and Flake, and they are so happy because those 2 ALWAYS govern exactly how they campaign"
Translation: its better to lose with a deadender like Ward than keep re-electing Rs like McCain and Flake because I don't agree with their every vote.
If this is a "contest", I will say Northam 50 Gillespie 47.
"– Angle? COD? Buck? Akin? Mourdock? Any of them ring a bell?"
-Yes, they got more primary votes than the people whom they vanquished.
I blame the candidate that did NOT do what it takes to win.
Unfortunately, especially in Arizona with men like McCain and Flake and their 18% approval ratings, the particular candidate is more responsible for their own demise than some woman saying she will run in a primary.
"Oh, and Michigan Guy, ending TPP is not "conservative". It's protectionist liberal garbage advocated by big labors, straight out of the AFL-CIO playbook.""
-jason let his "conservative mask" fall on this statement.
This Obama trade pact was NOT good for the United States, as it was NOT a FREE TRADE PACT.
"Don't confuse the morons with reality. They have to cling to their myths that somehow D's gave the GOP nomination to Trump."
In fairness, don't confuse this as defending you. They arent morons and I am not declaring myself correct. We have spirited debate here like siblings, and I dont know why you have to be a jackass.
At least jason and Roobie agree that is it NEVER the incumbents fault for losing their elections….it is always those dastardly "deadenders"!
Evan McMullin
.@EdWGillespie was one of the good guys, but now he peddles fear and white nationalism. It's better for VA and America that he not prevail.
5:16 AM · Nov 7, 2017
Is that for real? I hope Ed destroys Northam now. F*ck this stooge.
Virginia absentee ballots:
As of Sunday, 180,043 absentee ballots have been received [of 225,990 requested] … That's far above the previous midterm record of 123,221.
The highest absentee total statewide in Virginia history was in Obama's first election in 2008, with 506,672 voting absentee, followed by 496,452 during current President Donald Trump's 2016 election.
>>this suggests an off-year turnout model, not a Presidential turnout model.
>>it's raining in Northern Virginia.
>>remember government-issued photo i.d. required such as driver's license, passport or Post Office wanted poster.
"Post Office wanted poster."
"I do not see how renegotiating trade deals and enforcing them is an offense to conservatism…
Trump has not pushed tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism since the campaign."
I do. Republicans have always been for free trade
Protectionism and tariffs don't work, what works is R & D, innovation, technology, competitive products and competitive industries.
Trump's trade policies are liberal garbage straight out of the union's playbook. Consumer benefit from cheap products made in China, and jobs are created from the supply chain too. The idea consumers want to pay much more for a lot of this st-ff to have it made in America is fantasy.
That is not to say violations of existing trade agreements, dumping, etc. should be tolerated. They shouldn't.
But protectionism as rule is poor economics.
" [of 225,990 requested] "
-20% outstanding?
Must be a Chevy Impala or something like that!
"Trump has not pushed tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism since the campaign.""
Yes, they got more primary votes than the people whom they vanquished.
I blame the candidate that did NOT do what it takes to win. "
I blame morons like you who supported giving the seats to liberal Dems.
Does anyone want to analyze the college vote as of 12:30 p.m. so far in VA? From what I can tell, it does NOT look massive and only at VCU is the vote ahead of the 2013 numbers.
jason let his "conservative mask" fall on this statement."
Zzzzz… I will always support free trade.
All protectionism does is artificially protect inefficient and non-competitive industries and products.
Free trade and free enterprise IS and should be a conservative banner.
Reagan and free, open trade.
People forget the quotas on japanese cars.
Does jason simply ignore certain statements?
Or does he really think that Obama negotiated a Free Trade Pact?
Reagan protected Harley Davidson from japanese imports.
I feel like I did last November on Election Day. Bored. Expecting the worst.
I'm more hopeful today than I was then. I bought into the fake news hook line & sinker last time.
I'd rather have Handel win than Gillespie, if I can't have both win.
I don't think McSally will win the AZ primary. I foresee an expensive, bloody GOP brawl, while Synesma passes the popcorn around. Another GOP seat will now be open in a tossup district.
Me. Beer Crusher tweets that G is winning. Link at RRH comments. He got it right in '16 when nobody else did. Both times, he cites/cited mysterious "exit polls."
They can sue us, said brazile to the jebots candidate.
should be Mr. Beer Crusher
Mnw, we need to wait for lord ashehat first.
Btw, saw his tweet too. I did not come across him in 2016.
Just saw on twitter that turnout now in Fairfax is 31% but was 47% at end of day 2013.
Obviously, there will be an after work crowd, but wonder if down overall.
-Just in time for Christmas!
"CG", you want for Hannukah?
"I will follow DW and Wes into any Fox Hole"
Not Samantha or Megan without lots of protection…
Now who are the other 2.
Clear fusion dirty tricks here.
Who is Lord Ashehat?
"82K absentees have been received."
I saw numbers that were twice that… were those requests, and do these include those that did it in person.
(((Ben Tribbett)))? @notlarrysabato 1m1 minute ago
The rain has dampened NoVA turnout a lot since 10 am while rural precincts are improving. Still Northam advantage but tighter than 10 am
#504, yeah, I officially regret voting for him. I should have just written in Scott Walker.
"I do not see how renegotiating trade deals and enforcing them is an offense to conservatism…
Trump has not pushed tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism since the campaign."
I do. Republicans have always been for free trade
Protectionism and tariffs don't work, what works is R & D, innovation, technology, competitive products and competitive industries.
Trump's trade policies are liberal garbage straight out of the union's playbook. Consumer benefit from cheap products made in China, and jobs are created from the supply chain too. The idea consumers want to pay much more for a lot of this st-ff to have it made in America is fantasy.
That is not to say violations of existing trade agreements, dumping, etc. should be tolerated. They shouldn't.
But protectionism as rule is poor economics."
You seem to have just agreed with my philosophy on all that, so this post is a bit confusing.
Well, Gillespie could not have asked for a better rain distribution across the state on Election Day.
God is a Republican!
All of this speculation on turnout in various places in VA. I don't allow my emotions to swing one way or the other on it.
Someone at RRH saying Dem stronghold Fairfax County reports 30.6% turnout thus far, and it extrapolates into being on course for a 2013 turnout model which was 311,000 total in that County. The RRH poster seemed to think this was good news for Northam and bad for Gillespie.
I am not sure. In 2014 when Gillespie was actually on the ballot, there were 305,788 votes in Fairfax County. Gillespie almost won that race–a race that state-wide had much less interest than this Gov Race does now, so I think the increased turnout from the rest of the state compensates the increase of 5k in Fairfax.
But it remains to be seen what the final Fairfax turnout will be. Could be very sensible that many voted in the morning to avoid rains after work. That's what I did in VA Beach.
You seem to have just agreed with my philosophy on all that, so this post is a bit confusing"
I always feel better when I agree with Mr. Vito.
I called Virginia a tossup in 2014 based on a CNU poll that was 7 points, being the first to say Warner was the mystery candidate frantically making calls for help, and Gillespie saying it was going down to the wire. Ed barely lost.
I guess if I am consistent, I should pick him to win, since CNU is 6 points, Northam seems to be scrambling for support, and Gillespie said hus team was ahead the other day.
I think it is a total tossup that will comw down to turnout.
Lord ashcroft, mnw, one of rotties sources in 2016.
Mike, great nickname for Robbie. Meatloaf!! ROFL
Meathead would be his Father
Clinton was seeated and could not make concession.
I never heard of lord whatever before.
"I always feel better when I agree with Mr. Vito."
In fairness, that's a little dangerous since I am still a registered D.
However, I enjoy listening to Ben Shapiro, and agree with him more than people like Hannity, Rush, Milo, Bannon, and Levin.
So maybe I have found a home.
The gq article looks at 2016 again. Comments from everybody involved.
Thx, Tina.
Lots of doom & gloom re: Gillespie at RRH.
Just voted at a school, made the mistake of going when the school buses are lining up, its raining cats and dogs, had to park to park far from the entrance.
Republicans had a nice tent full of campaign literature and several attendants, Democrat had a lonely folding chair off to the side with campaign material on his lap. Its windy and cold and the poor bastard looked miserable.
There was one person in line to vote, so old had to be helped to the machine. I am going to predict a low turnout in my area and that all the Rs will win.
"I always feel better when I agree with Mr. Vito."
Also, I guess it wasn't that we agreed on trade philosophy totally, but that we agreed on what the CONSERVATIVE position is.
RRH predictably reporting about a 'surge' of voting in NOVA and MOSHEM talking like its over. Citing Albemarle County (Dem area) as having slightly higher turnout at this point of the day compared to 2013. So the lights are out, and the race is over…these people are easy-freaks.
Meatloaf will not a prediction? Figures
"God is a Republican!"
No, but he is an American according to David Bowie.
Moshem was awful in 2016. As bad as Robbie and Corey
RRH has Moshem and GerGop
We have Robbie and CG
Robbie and Corey looked like complete fools.
Mnw. RRH was down on Handel, Matt Bevin, Trump, Gianforte, Pat Roberts on election days
This heavy rain might just do it for G.
Todd, Corey still denies his predictions and election night meltdown. Blew the biggest vote in US history.
But if Northam wins, he will be here to gloat
Polls close at 7PM, correct?
Can't the speculation simply wait for real numbers?
I finally caught up on the thread. Yay.
Drats got to drat, jonesy.
"Can't the speculation simply wait for real numbers?"
But then it won't be speculative…
Are the networks going to carry VA Gov race? I seem to remember in 2009 it was real election night coverage like a presidential race. In 2013, I forget.
If Gillespie wins, let me be on record as calling out all these false alarms about heavy early turnout in Dem strongholds as nothing other than people voting earlier due to rain getting worse throughout the day.
I haven't yet seen any reports from rural areas on turnout.
"I finally caught up on the thread. Yay."
-Then she pounced!
Mr. Vito is my favorite Democrat.
Bitterlaw to nominate that for gayest post of day in 3, 2, 1…
Mr. Vito, if you run for office one day as a Republican, don't worry, NYC will forget about your past as a Dem in a microsecond, so there is that.
ok, here is one:
York county is at 38.9%
Gillespie trounced Warner 59/39 in 2014. Small population though–will be roughly 25k votes cast there.
Who is Lord Ashehat?"
Wobbie likes to quote Lord Something as his favorite source that Democrats will do well.
York county is at 38.9%"
Hot dog, my vote is going to count in VA?
Who knew!
Jonesy 552
Yes, I was generally aware.
I just skimmed the flip side of all those "Hillary election night suicide party" stories. I read an hour by hour account of the Trump team's experiences.
An awful lot of those Trump inner circle people didn't last long.
Another very veteran GOP Congressman retires in NJ– LoBiondo. Another tossup open seat to try to hold.
3 PM exits look good for Gillespie.
RRH: "Chesapeake is at 30% but that's close to a 50-50 place so not sure anyone benefits."
It all depends on which precincts in Chesapeake have heavy turnouts and which are lighter to get on average 30% across Chesapeake.
What many outside the state don't realize is that Chesapeake, the urban area as well as all the rural area is under one municipality, the 'City of Chesapeake' as there is no county for all that space. So one area is going to vote like Portsmouth or Norfolk, and the rest of it votes like rural Alabama.
VA Beach has the same situation.
My predictions are out in the open. I was very wrong on the Presidential race, as were most people, but right on just about everything else on the ballot in 2016.
I was not here on Election Night. Again, that might have been Cory. I did post very late that night and the next day and certainly was not having a "meltdown" in any sense.
4 pm exits look good for President Kerry!
I know some are comparing turnout with 2013 and saying NoVA will possibly have slightly better turnout and that hurts G compared the a toss up election in 2013. We have to take into account that in 2014 G ran 5 or so points ahead of C in 2013 in NoVA. A slightly bigger turnout in NoVA isn't doom to his chances especially is the larger turnout is mirrored in GOP friendly areas
572 – I made that point above. And it still ins't established that the turnout will be higher by the time of 7 pm close.
Lobiondo? That is a bummer
Mn, who is the beer crusher?
LoBiondo was on record as saying Trump is "unfit" to be President(just like McSally) Why would a Trump fan think he retiring is a "bummer?"
570. At least you have the courage to predict the race tonight, Corey. Unlike Robbie
Jonesy, he is on twitter. Claims he had info in 2016.
He might be flying a plane at the moment. Something I wouldn't be brave enough to attempt.
Here are the 2013 exits again, if anyone wants to look…
Tucson seat of McSally is not bad if she is on the Senate Ticket.
Friends who work at U of A and republicans, says Kirkpatrick is seen as a Phoenix carpetbagger down there. Two very strong GOP State Senators in that district
He now revised the numbers, but is not indicating his source.
The Beer Crusher is a lawyer who tweets about politics. In 2016, he tweeted about some early exit polls (before anybody else) showing Trump winning in MI, WI & PA (I think).
It's a hotly debated topic as to whether he invents his exit polls or has genuine sources.
"Mn, who is the beer crusher?"
Claims lower than expect ed turnou. In arlington and richmond.
Does this mean anything?
Falls Church: From Voting Guy who retweets Dave Bjerke: Turnout at 2:00 is 46.5%.
Caroline County: As of 2:00 reports are that turnout in Caroline appears to be high compared with the total numbers from 2013.
Caroline County was a Trump County, but barely.
585 – but then there is this posted on RRH:
Unbelievably to me but apparently confirmed, Arlington has got 48% versus 49% in 2013.
Funny link.
The Beer Crusher is also claiming that NJ Guv is close, which I … Do. NOT. Believe. For. One. Second.
I still say Gillespie ekes it out by three.
589 – Sounds like he is riding a little too high in the saddle.
Murphy wins by at least 10 in New Jersey. Can an earthquake just send the Sewer State sliding off the eastern seaboard already? It's an embarassment to the country.
Interesting that RRH is fixated on 2013 comparisons, when in fact 2014 was more recent, and Ed Gillespie was actually on that 2014 ballot.
If that is true Gillespie is done. Simple math.
Not buying 48% at mid afternoon, however.
Let me guess…
RRH has already declared Northam, Fairfax, and Herring have won by the same margin as McDonnell in 2009 and claimed Dems have a 70-30 majority in the VA State House.
594 – Polls close in just over 3 hours. IF those numbers are true, I think my theory might hold up that many voted before work rather than after due to the inclement weather that is now covering northern VA.
595 – yep…they are all thinking its all done.
They thought Dems were going to have a great night in 2014 too, DW.
That same source is also saying low AA turnout in certain locations.
Tina says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:01 pm
Lord ashcroft, mnw, one of rotties sources in 2016.
– I wouldn't expect you to understand who Lord Ashcroft is, but by all means continue to repost tweets from morons like Jim Hoft, Larry Schweikart, and the other fools you follow.
Jonesy says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:01 pm
Mike, great nickname for Robbie. Meatloaf!! ROFL
Meathead would be his Father
– Meanwhile, you're Trump's court jester.
Lord asehat was very accurate in 2016, right?
ed is gonna win by 3 pts imo
Jonesy says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:08 pm
Meatloaf will not a prediction? Figures
– Would you prefer I make an uneducated guess, Trump's court jester?
Jonesy says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:09 pm
Moshem was awful in 2016. As bad as Robbie and Corey
– How would you know? You didn't pop up in this forum shilling for Trump until May of this past year.
And I've got some bad news for you. Nearly everyone you praise in this forum got the presidential race wrong last year.
Todd McCain says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:11 pm
Robbie and Corey looked like complete fools.
– As opposed to being a fool who supports Trump, I'll take being wrong about the outcome of an election.
I don't know if this has been posted, but McSally is in for Senate.
Obviously the GOP is going to try not to let Ward throw this away.
I am about 95% sure that as of this moment there are not actual "Exit Polls" from Virginia that anybody has a "secret source" into and that people on the internet, from whatever political rooting interest, are simply doing what people on the internet enjoy doing, especially without having to give a credit card number.
We all will know how this thing has shaken out or how it stands in about 7 hours.
I am always skeptical of supposed turnout numbers that are tweeted out. Take a typical county where there are precincts spread out all over in schools, churches, and so forth, and then supposedly at a given benchmark time, someone from each precinct goes table to table to gather up all the vote totals, and then the person sends that info to someone who is collecting it for the whole county or city, and then tweets it out?
Sounds more to me like individual workers who tweet out turnout percentages for their own precinct….which may not be representative of the whole.
Does McDonalds have a "secret sauce"?
jason says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:19 pm
Who is Lord Ashehat?"
Wobbie likes to quote Lord Something as his favorite source that Democrats will do well.
– Your ignorance knows no end. The only time I reposted his tweet was on election night last year at 7 PM when he tweeted the first wave of exit polling.
And for you dolts who don't know, Ashcroft was the former leader of the Conservative party in Great Britain and a friend of Romney who conducted a series of focus groups and interviews with voters across the country all throughout last year's election.
Mecklemberg county heavy turnout.
611 – its no longer secret. It is 1000 island dressing put into the big mac.
Friend of quittens.
Nuff sais
Agree completely, DW.
613 – tiny GOP county in south central VA. Ed will end up with an advantage there about 1200-1400 votes.
Jonesy says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm
570. At least you have the courage to predict the race tonight, Corey. Unlike Robbie
– Again Trump's court jester, do you want me to make an uneducated guess about a race I have not followed at all?
"The only time I reposted his tweet was on election night last year at 7 PM when he tweeted the first wave of exit polling."
-After years (since 2004) of just about everybody saying the early exit polls are useless, you couldn't wait to show how badly the Republican was going to lose last year….."oddly enough", you were totally and completely WRONG.
Corey, who was wronger about the Presidential race than just about anybody here, including saying Trump would do worse than Romney in Ohio when in fact Trump decimated Hillary by 500k votes, now claims he was wrong like "most people".
You have to admire the chutzpah…
Tina says:
November 7, 2017 at 3:52 pm
Lord asehat was very accurate in 2016, right?
– Bless your heart. I know you have trouble understanding things that others find understandable, but all he did was tweet the first wave of exits polls.
Was that a prediction?
LOL–the only person on RRH who is saying Gillespie might win is one of their many Democrats:
Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 3:58 pm
Sounds like NoVA and rural VA is voting big time but AA VA is lagging big time. IMO sounds like a small Gillespie win then.
This guy was actually sounding the alarms there 1 year ago and was laughed at for suggesting early on that FL was going to go for Trump.
Former MLB pitcher Roy Halladay might have been killed in a plane crash.
Not Larry Sabato said that about 25 minutes ago, Northam's lead had fallen from 160,000 votes at 9:00 to 35,000 now!
"At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm. It's trending tighter as day goes on.
13 replies 17 retweets 16 likes
Reply 13 Retweet 17 Like 16
(((Ben Tribbett)))? @notlarrysabato 23m23 minutes ago
Around 9 am based on turnout and absentees Northam was up about 160,000. With rain in nova its now down to about 70,000."
Hill chump, you bought it.
"And for you dolts who don't know, Ashcroft was the former leader of the Conservative party in Great Britain and a friend of Romney who conducted a series of focus groups and interviews with voters across the country all throughout last year's election."
I think a dolt should be defined as a moron who uses a Brit "friend of Romney" as a source for US elections. And of course you only quoted him because he supported your contention (wrong) that Trump was going to be wiped out.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 4:03 pm
"The only time I reposted his tweet was on election night last year at 7 PM when he tweeted the first wave of exit polling."
-After years (since 2004) of just about everybody saying the early exit polls are useless, you couldn't wait to show how badly the Republican was going to lose last year….."oddly enough", you were totally and completely WRONG.
– Except the exits polls in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014 were on the money. Strange, but I don't remember you whining like a baby with a dirty diaper about the exits said in those years.
"Around 9 am based on turnout and absentees Northam was up about 160,000."
Why bother to count the votes. Someone already knows what the count is at every hour.
I haven't scrolled thru the above comments to see if DW has reported on the voting lines in VA. So, if around, DW, what is your assessment on the election thus far?
So Wobbie, was is Lord Ashcrap tweeting about the VA race.
Northam up by 40?
Real simple. Do what I do. Printed out the county by county results of the 2013 governors race won by McAluffe by 2.25% and compare tonight's early returns. Should be clear if Gillespie is running ahead of the 2013 early reporting rural numbers. If so follow the numbers. If not, find something else to do tonight.
I also have the county by county 2014 Gillespie – Warner stats. It was a dead heat so it's easy to compare and tell if Gillespie is running ahead or behind his 2014 pace.
Anyway, you can get the county numbers from 2013 and 2014 over at Atlas Presidential – readily available.
624 – oh please. NO votes have been counted yet.
"Ashcroft was the former leader of the Conservative party in Great Britain"
-Thatcher had a bigger set than he ever did, which is why NOBODY CARES what he says.*
*Looking at his bio, he seems more conservative than Theresa May…..but how conservative do you have to be to manage that?!?
FWIW. This is anecdotal:
Franklin County, VA – conservative stronghold.
"Voted about 11 AM and there was a line with lots of people coming and going. I'd say it was similar to 2016."
jason says:
November 7, 2017 at 4:06 pm
"And for you dolts who don't know, Ashcroft was the former leader of the Conservative party in Great Britain and a friend of Romney who conducted a series of focus groups and interviews with voters across the country all throughout last year's election."
I think a dolt should be defined as a moron who uses a Brit "friend of Romney" as a source for US elections. And of course you only quoted him because he supported your contention (wrong) that Trump was going to be wiped out.
– Oh, I get it. A British person who is in America to cover the election tweets the exit polls shouldn't be used as a source.
Hello, HHR's biggest fraud. I often copied the exits polls here in all of the years going back to 2006. Sorry the data wasn't what you wanted to read, but I don't remember you crying when the exits were correct in 2010 and 2014.
EXit polls wromg in 2016 due to trump voters not wishing to,respond.
Notice how luntz caught that in the cq piece.
Has any media outfit taken any bogus exit polls today?
Did mittens collude fwith a foreign source and where russians involved?
Agree dw with no votes counted.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 4:10 pm
"Ashcroft was the former leader of the Conservative party in Great Britain"
-Thatcher had a bigger set than he ever did, which is why NOBODY CARES what he says.*
*Looking at his bio, he seems more conservative than Theresa May…..but how conservative do you have to be to manage that?!?
– My god you're dumb.
So consensus was her thighness knocked out and coukd not concede the race?
Did she blend alcohol and prescription drugs?
Falls church 53 percent
Pwc 27-35
"– My god you're dumb."
-Yet, your LORD loves me equally……that must really burn your capri pants, internet-lady-watcher.
629 – no line at all when I voted. And I went at what often is one of the busiest times of the day. I conclude from it that at least locally, there is no swords-and-torches anti-Trump mob out for a pound of flesh.
It probably means overall low turnout in a relatively mixed precinct. I cannot comment on the racial makeup of voters but there were none other when I voted.
During 2008 and 2012 the room was stuffed with AAs voting for Obama.
Here is some information on the college kiddie vote in VA today as of 4:00 p.m.
IS VCU a mostly conservative college?
So the shooter escaped a mental ward in 2012?
Nobody reported it?
This seems really bad for Roy Halladay, though it would of course be sad for whomever was killed in the crash.
If it was not him on the plane, I think word would have gotten out on social media by now that he was ok.
Thanks sheeple for the anecdotal update in #634!
Falls Church is a relatively small County in VA with fewer than 10,000 votes cast in 2016.
NYCmike says:
November 7, 2017 at 4:16 pm
"– My god you're dumb."
-Yet, your LORD loves me equally……that must really burn your capri pants, internet-lady-watcher.
– What in the world do his views compared to Thatcher's matter when talking about his resume? Stop trying to make everything about ideology.
His death has now been confirmed. RIP.
Now, back to the fake exit polls…
#644 appreciate your reply DW. I have fingers crossed for G to win.
From Elect Project a few minutes ago:
"City of Petersburg, heavy Afr-Am community, looking soft on turnout. Only about 5,200 voted so far, 8,300 cast vote for Gov in 2013 https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927997650452074496 …"
Hey, flake, it is law already
Tina, it's such a debacle that the shooter's mental/criminal history was handled the way it was! The guy was obviously a guy on the precipice of losing it and hurting/killing someone.
Good riddance flakey.
I hope that report is wromg that he escaped from a mental facility in 2012, janz.
Janz, i did predict he had mental illness and wanted to know his prescription records.
Will ben sasse weigh in on flake writing a bill that has already is in law?
Beer chrusher claims that g will win.
Does the law include people convinced in military court?
That seemed to be the point of Flake's Tweet and the bill he is sponsoring.
Ann navarro, real r
Just do it, jeffy.
Lol, dumb and dumber.
One of the greatest lines last year in election night coverage was from Huckabee who mocked a dem on the panel who had bragged about the Dem GOTV machine. Huckabee said, Dem voters have to be given a sandwich, a shot of whiskey and a ride to the polls, while Republicans just need to know when election day is.
Looks like in Petersburg, VA the Dems might be running low on sandwiches and shots of whiskey if those numbers are right.
Ironically DW landed Post 666. 🙂
Can we get actual congress people that know wtf they are doing!
Any person….
From what I've read on RRH, I conclude one thing:
No one–and I mean no one–has any clue how VA-Gov will end up today.
No way he should have been out.
Whether one believes that somebody convicted of domestic violence should be able to buy a gun or not, the Flake bill is clearly related to what happened in Texas and the specific loophole involved.
It is not "already a law."
Ed needs to win one for the Gipper.
NASA: Evidence Volcanic Activity Heating Up Antarctica…
…wait, I thought it had to be exhaust from internal combustion engines?
It is law , it says any person…
Do not be an idiot.
18 U.S.C. § 922 (g)(1)(9) already exists.
I guess Lovecraft was right, DW:
there is a difference between a civilian court and a military court which resulted in this loophole.
The loophole should be closed. Seems like a simple solution.
Mr. Flake, are you that stooped. Hanging out with ann navarro will do that.
The law says any person.
18 U.S.C. § 922 (g)(1)(9) already exists.
Karl Vincent
Replying to @johncardillo and @JeffFlake
I give up. I just give freaking up. How utterly stupid people can get elected to the freaking Senate.
They are largely stupid in the senate.
If Flake is stooped, shouldn't he just stand up straight to correct his posture?
Jeff flake
Lets make it illegaler.
"Thatcher had a bigger set than he ever did"
"All protectionism does is artificially protect inefficient and non-competitive industries and products. "
Tell that to Ronald Reagan who imposed 50% tariff on Japanese motorcycles.
Wisconsin and Harley Davidson workers thank him.
Replying to @johncardillo and 2 others
It is appalling the little knowledge it takes to get elected
And who you buy.
And while we are talking free trade, abolish the bar requirements for lawyers, and AMA requirements for doctors.
Free exchange of services.
Also tell it to Herbert Hoover, who started a trade war in the middle of a recession, thus creating the Great Depression.
Wisconsin and Harley Davidson workers were not so pleased with Mr. Hoover in 1932.
Reagan was a free trader but he did protect harley davidson, sugar industry, and quotas on japanese cars.
The millenials will say he did not.
If we should adopt trade policies just because of Ronald Reagan, then why not adopt his immigration policies just because of Ronald Reagan?
Why the f*ck are there 100 posts about Lord Ashcroft?
The cato article inficates what he did re free trade.
-She had those? 🙂
Dw what about pwc?
Come on flakey, why not another post about the diversity lottery?
"Why the f*ck are there 100 posts about Lord Ashcroft?"
-That is how Robbie got so smart with his predictions of DOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!
Henrico co way down too.
More arrests in ksr imminent.
Tina, how close are we to being dragged into a war between KSA and Iran?
Jesse jackson accused of sexual harassment
Its proxiess, so not close imo.
"Jesse jackson accused of sexual harassment"
Everyone knew.
"Its proxiess, so not close imo."
Okay, hope you are right.
"do you want me to make an uneducated guess about a race I have not followed at all?"
Cretin Robbie, why change?
It happened in syria and now yemen.
The Dems will melt down again if G wins. Let's hope it happens.
Melt down and then pill pop.
A Menendez juror had a question for the judge today.
"What is a Senator?"
Who knew NYCMike was able to get himself on a NJ jury..
Incidentally, how did Menendez not hire Leslie Abrahamson to defend him?
LoBionodo's retirement announcement had some pretty harsh words about Trump and today's Republican Party.
So, is his leaving still a "bummer?"
Steve Kornacki of MSNBC send out this exit poll data:
Trump approval: 43-55%
McAuliffe approval: 53-43%
GOP fav/unfav: 38-59%
Dem fav/unfav: 50-48%
Hmm… looks like Trump voters turned out, then, DW.
713 – yes, and I would deduce that low GOP favorability is due to the do-nothing congress and people like Flake.
Mooky has changed his story so many times.
Virginia exit poll (first wave) — Monuments to Confederate leaders on govt property should be…
Removed 36%
Left in place: 60%
Domestic Violence Offender Gun Ban, often called "the Lautenberg Amendment" ("Gun Ban for Individuals Convicted of a Misdemeanor Crime of Domestic Violence", Pub.L. 104–208, 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(9)), is an amendment to the Omnibus Consolidated Appropriations Act of 1997, enacted by the 104th United States Congress in …
It is not a do nothing congress. Flakey is working on a bill to make so thing more illegal than ever before.
My first reaction to "GOP" is to think "Trump," not "Congress." I hope you are right in this matter & all else tonight.
Monmouth had Trump 41-53
and McAuliffe 45-40 with 15 undecided.
I don't know why it is that RRH is obsessed with the idea that if tonight's VA turnout exceeds 2013 turnout, that it means Gillespie is toast.
2013 election was McAwful vs. Cooch. I always figured the turnout would be higher tonight than 2013.
So, mook as campaign manager did not know they paid for a russian dossier.
Yeah right.
720 – And Monmouth had Northam barely ahead.
My first reaction to "GOP" is to think "Trump," not "Congress."
Polls have shown generally otherwise… when Trump's approval is 5 points higher, it would lean more toward our interpretation.
"2013 election was McAwful vs. Cooch."
And a lot went for Sarvis, so we have direct evidence that people were much less enamored with the two candidates.
Well, I still think it will be close… haven't heard anything so far that points to Gillespie being out of it, so we'll just have to wait.
LOL…the resident 'panicked Dem' at RRH:
Tekzilla November 7, 2017 at 5:19 pm
Very well. The first waves are almost always too D leaning. Feeling pretty confident in calling it for Gillespie now.
Thanks, Doc. RIP.
He also pitched the second perfect game in Phillies' history. Senator Jim Bunning pitched the first in 1964.
They have a resident drat at that site too?
Still cannot believe that the ky keystone prosecutor is onky charging rands assailant withna misdemeanor.
There are several resident dems at rrh
Mr. Beer Crusher tweets that Richmond & Arlington are staying home. Still predicting G win.
The states atty may not show his cards until he goes to the Grand Jury, unless he announced "no felony. Read my lips," & I didn't see it.
I don't see any reason for Dems to panic either.
Other voters in my family just arrived home–we split up this year to see turnout in the morning, and then right after work.
Turnout this morning was very light—as in walk right up and vote and done.
In 2008 and 2012 the polling place was packed with AA voters.
Turnout tonight at this same place was very light for a general election. Was more like a primary.
The few voters there were mostly whites.
This is a precinct in VA Beach that is about half white, and half Asian, Black, and Hispanic.
Mnw hope that you are right. 5 broken ribs is life threatening.
What looks most noteworthy from the first wave of VA exits is that it shows that white college educated percent of the vote is up 5% from 2016.
In cycles past, that would be good for Republicans, but the rules seems to have changed with so much of Trump's base being white non-college educated.
Unless Gillespie is getting a ton of Hillary voters in a state she won by 6 points (which is possible,) that might be a bad trend for Gillespie.
Except for the Dem, RRH is all-in saying that because Dem areas hit their turnout targets like 2013, they are going to win.
737 – she won by 5.3 points, and Hillary smashed Trump in NOVA. Gillespie actually won Loudoun County in 2014 and wasn't that far off in Prince William.
Fairfax surpasses 2013
737 is that from exit polls? If so junk it.
It would not be unusual for the states atty to leave a Miss "placeholder" charge while he/she waits for addl evidence to come in, such as medical records.
Michael McDonald
Caution: Don't trust exit polls until they can be weighted to actual election results in sample precincts (and even then, take demos with a huge grain of salt)
From the twitter that dw provided earlier.
leave a misdemeanor
more exits posted at RRH:
PRELIM VA EXITS: Dems appear to have an edge over Reps in party ID among voters, just under 4 in 10 ID as Dems, just over 3 in 10 ID as Reps
In '16: Dems outnumbered Reps in VA by 7 pts
In '13 VA gov: Dems outpaced Reps by 5
In '09 VA gov: Reps outpaced Dems by 4 points
Of course this is self-ID as VA does not register party affiliations.
Word on the street is that EG pulls it out by about 1.5 to 2 points.
I still don't know who came up with this rule that turnout today cannot exceed 2013.
Who the hell knows if the exists are accurate or not, but based on the numbers, it looks like that at least among white voters, the electorate is more of Hillary's voters than they were as a percent in 2016.
So, maybe minority turnout will be way down or maybe Gillespie gets a ton of Hillary voters or people who voted for Johnson or McMullin (like myself)but I would not consider that one exit poll tidbit good for Republicans in this race.
I am on record in saying I hope Gillespie wins and that he totally snubs Trump and does not mention him in his victory speech.
ox News
.@tedcruz: "In 2010, 48,000 felons & fugitives…illegally tried to purchase guns, [the Obama administration] prosecuted only 44 of them."
why do they let them release exit polls before the polls close. The year allen lost be a few thousand votes they indicated around 5 that it was blow out. May have cost Allen the election.
Who is the hell knows…
You should not quit there.
When was the last time that the first exit poll was ever good news for republicans?
(Note I still expect a Northam victory. Just asking.)
I think that Northam will win. I hope that Gillespie will win.
All the discussion of exit polls, turnout, anecdotal evidence, etc. is just noise until the votes come in. However, it is the HHR tradition to overanalyze everything. Have at it.
Why are people posting exit data without giving the actual numbers? What's with this fuzzy crap? If they are going to put it out there, just post a percent.
6 PM Exit crosstabs are interesting.
Gillespie up 5 with dog owners.
Northam up 95 with people who haven't accepted the results of the election.
Northam up 95 with people who haven't accepted the results of the election"
I resemble that comment.
Trump approval: 43-55%"
Trash it..
Lord Ashcrap says Trump is at 34 in VA.
This is based on focus groups he conducted around the state in 2017.
Its snowing cats and dogs here where I am, about 80 miles north of NOVA. If the weather there is anything like it is here, I can see where it could affect turnout.
I've been tracking party affiliation. Over the past month, Democrats are ahead 5.2, or 4.2 when independents who lean are included.
Tina 749
Generally "felon in possession" is charged by the boxcar load.
"Tried to purchase" is not … recognizable as a customary criminal charge. You could theoretically charge an attempt to possess, I guess, but… not how it usually works in real life.
"In cycles past, that would be good for Republicans, but the rules seems to have changed with so much of Trump's base being white non-college educated. "
Trump is not on the ballot, so there is no reason Gillespie can't get more of the college educated vote.
Certainly it happened even when Trump was on the ballot, when GOP Senate and Governor candidates outpaced him.
Word on the street"
Now we are getting solid info…
and if you would have kept reading before your narcolepsy took effect, you would have seen I said that.
We need lord arsehats numbers.
Almost all those fed bureaucrats in NOVA have degrees, & in greater percentage than the general voting population, of course.
A year ago my word on the street was more accurate than all the projections on Election Day. We shall see if the underdog pulls it out.
Higher college educated could also mean minority turnout is down. Did they give those numbers?
Fbi is not able to access the locked phone.
Can they do anything right, or did comedy really drag them to,the bottom.
"And that he totally snubs Trump and does not mention him in his victory speech."
I thought Trump's base was going to get him elected?
I hope he wins and thanks Trump for supporting him to win.
There seems to be a general consensus that AA turnout is unimpressive, aka "soft," as DW had posted earlier.
OK, someone at RRH finally posts something sensible:
rayinma November 7, 2017 at 6:01 pm
Yes, it's very interesting that the ultra-left areas of NoVA are so quick to release all sorts of voting statistics but so slow to count votes…
In 2013 exits, 61% were college educated.
In 2016 exits, 54% were college educated.
So if it is only up 5 from 2016, then it is down from 2013.
770 – I can only speak with certainty to the precinct I vote in. AA turnout was way down.
and if you would have kept reading before your narcolepsy took effect, you would have seen I said that."
No, still the liar… you didn't say that at all.
Pitch, I was joking.
I hope your street info is on the money again.
signing off for a while…will be back later when actual votes are coming in.
Cuccinelli was a really bad candidate that almost won.
Gillespie is a really good candidate that………
Drum roll….
Jason is getting snow and I am only getting rain. I'm jealous.
Northam 49
Gillespie 47
If Gillespie loses by more than 5, its a bad sign for Trump and GOP next November.
If Gillespie wins, its a good sign for Trump and GOP next November.
If Gillespie loses by less than 5, its a wash.
I will fill in for DW and keep HHR entertained.
Here in the depths of Amish country, its snowing and some of the precincts have cows within sight.
No Democrats will come close to winning, in fact half the offices only had write-in options on the Dem side, they didn't even field candidates.
There are no parties or victory rallies, most people will be asleep by the time the polls close at 8 PM.
Greymarch, when was the last time you posted?
If that party ID is anything like the exits Gillespie is done.
If Gillespie loses by more than 5, its a bad sign for Trump and GOP next November.
If Gillespie wins, its a good sign for Trump and GOP next November.
If Gillespie loses by less than 5, its a wash."
Frankly, I don't agree with any of that. By the 2018 campaign, this race will be ancient history. The results will be based on events much closer to the election, and on Trump's approval numbers at that time, not now.
Things can change a lot by next year, but at this moment in time, I think that is probably right.
The only exit poll that means anything is the one on Confederate Monuments. If it is anywhere near accurate, it will be good night for Gillespie.
……Not convinced the first wave of exits are accurate, however.
See 2016.
A Menendez juror had a question for the judge today.
"What is a Senator?"
Who knew NYCMike was able to get himself on a NJ jury.."
Corey has rare flashes of a sense of humor….
I agree Jason. However if Northam looses it will once again show that outside of California and New York and Washington the Democratic Party is in the crapper. However they will stay in denial.
In other words, if the 2018 elections were today, I think that would be the relationship between Gillespie's margin and the rest of the results we would be seeing.
"The only exit poll that means anything is the one on Confederate Monuments. If it is anywhere near accurate, it will be good night for Gillespie."
Yes and no… even the Fox Poll had the monuments polling at 60%, but G was down by 5.
However, it is the HHR tradition to overanalyze everything."
F–k off!
You only say that because you are a lawyer, commute to work, your wife is Jewish, you don't like to travel and you drink a lot of soda.
I remember the Bevan/Conway Gov race in KY a few years back. I gave up and went offline because every Right/GOP site, said the GOP was going to lose by 10%.
Like Brexit, woke up the next morning that the GOP had won.
The pre-poll closing exits are in the oven!
"Like Brexit, woke up the next morning that the GOP had won"
I didn't even know Brexit liked to go to bed early.
Played bridge today.
Well, I was in attendnce there at least.
Came in dead last with about 2500 points.
Top score was over 6000.
I have never seen such a run of pitiful cards in my hand.
I lusted after some of the hands the others had.
On the last of the 36 hands played, I bid with only a 7 card suit (headed by Ace and then junk) plus another suit that had a King. That was it. Only 7 points total (you usually have to have 13 points to open). But my partner bid me up to 5 of my diamonds in very competitive bidding and due to distribution and lots of luck, I actually made the bid.
Rumors(Yes I know), that AA turnout is down from 2013.
does that mean anything?
It means fewer African Americans voted.
I posted my reasons why I think Northam will win earlier. A Northam loss in the most important race since Trump was elected will be devastating. Democrats have won the past 3 presidential elections in VA and 3 of the past 4 gubernatorial elections. If they can't pull this out in what is supposed to be a massively anti Trump environment in a blue state, how can they be expected to make in roads next year? They have so much more on the line than Republicans. I almost hope Northam wins so that Democrats mistakenly think their SJW/Resistance nonsense should continue. I dont want them to finally wake up to the fact that their attack on white voters will destroy them in the long term.
Never Trumpers at NRO, say AA turnout is down, but NoVa Lib White areas up.
On the last of the 36 hands played, I bid with only a 7 card suit (headed by Ace and then junk) plus another suit that had a King. That was it. Only 7 points total (you usually have to have 13 points to open). But my partner bid me up to 5 of my diamonds in very competitive bidding and due to distribution and lots of luck, I actually made the bid."
The last time I was this confused was when NYC was explaining how it was ok in his book for Trump to fund Schumer for decades.
Any word on the Va House races?
A Menendez juror had a question for the judge today.
"What is a Senator?"
No one's that stupid, not even a FIB.
800. who did you vote for in the 2016 Potus Race, Jason?
Arlen Specter?
Wrestler Ric Flair said he slept with 10000 women.
I was impressed when Magic Johnson claimed to have nailed 2000.
#799: This is exactly what I predicted last night.
The AA vote wont show up tonight, but the rest of the anti-Trump vote is motivated in VA, which will give Northam about a 2 point win. Makes perfect sense.
Arlen died years ago, so I left it blank.
Besides, I think Arlen was a scumbag who sullied a pretty remarkable career by becoming a jackass in the end.
I'll see your Ric Flair and raise you a Wilt Chamberlain.
What Ric Flair didn't tell was the number of STD's he was infected with and how many he infected back. 10000 is quite a claim.
Jeff B back in black?Verified account @EsotericCD
Second round of exit polling in VA-GOV is in and…nothing about these numbers looks right at all to me. Huge upset brewing.
"Huge upset brewing."
VA election…
1. The LT. Gov. race is between a woman (State Senator Jill Vogel–R) and an AA guy. Might this boost AA turnout? Either way, this will end up with VA having either a woman or an AA as their LtGov. DW will have to verify if VA has ever had an AA or woman elected as LtGov…
2. There are more women running for the VA legislature than ever, I assume most are Ds.
Will be interesting how that plays out.
3. VA statewide elections usually bring out about 40-45% of RVs
4. Falls Church is a city and not a county. Someone upthread referred to Falls Church "county".
5. for NYCMike, Cash Cow made a prediction about the race yesterday. Northam over Gillespie 49.5% to 48.2%, I think. You do not have CC listed in your list of predictions…
6. Is Dave "The Wizard" going to put up an election thread with linkies to election results…?
Is Jeff B more reliable than Lord Ashcrap?
Beer chrash predicts g by 2
Douglas Wilder was a VA LG
10000 women is one a day for over 27 years.
But maybe he did 3 or 4 in one day, so he could have shortened the span.
Martini drinker* says Northam by 3, but likes Beer Crash's prediction better.
* that's me.
Jake Burns??Verified account? @JakeBurnsCBS6 · 32m32 minutes ago
? More
.@VA_GOP staff feeling this election may turn on rural turnout, not NOVA. Saying numbers up 120% in some rural precincts. @CBS6 #VaGov
souring tale
ale rousting
real ousting
I just poured a double to steady my nerves.
7 PM exits out.
I don't have them.
"EML says:
November 7, 2017 at 6:52 pm
Douglas Wilder was a VA LG"
Yes, you are correct.
Guess I had a brain freeze….
Yeah, should have remembered Wilder.
So what are the links to the results?
I ignore all exits no matter what they show. Just be patient and wait for the actual results.
Limoncellos numbers will be out soon.
Exit poll shows more men than women? WTF?
Dave has called the result on the new thread…..
Live Election Results and Estimates: Virginia Governor Race
Dave Wasserman?Verified account @Redistrict 2m2 minutes ago
First results in: Gillespie wins Smyth absentees 172-85. Was 153-99 for Cuccinelli in '13. But, we're expecting Northam to underperform McAuliffe there.
looks good for northam
Wow, what a sweet night for Democrats in Virginia across the board. Especially good to see the NRA-backed candidates go down hard. Bob Marshall loses, Hurst wins, Rodman wins…perfect! And the state House likely to flip to the Democrats too.
Trump should paraphrase the words of his predecessor Barry Obama after one of the many midterm Democratic election disasters under his 2 terms: To all of you who did not vote in the election yesterday I hear your message loud and clear. I will continue to work 24/7 to enact all the great plans you put me in office to achieve.