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Be sure to insure
Wick's World
Soon after the flood waters receded, Moose Lake officials were quick to call a town meeting to inform the devastated public of the true impact of this historic event. On my way to the gathering I came upon Sean, my insurance agent, who was busy moving furniture into his temporary quarters on Main Street. Even insurance companies were not immune to the undiscerning ravages of an overflowing lake — Moose Lake Independent Insurance Agency, formerly located on Arrowhead Lane, saw its building become overwhelmed with floodwaters.
As I was walking by Sean called out, "If you need us, we're going to be located here for a while."
"Oh, you got flooded, too?" I brilliantly deduced. "What did you do, call yourself?"
Sean chuckled at my wisecrack, one of the few heard that day, for what happened to Moose Lake and many surrounding communities was certainly no laughing matter.
I reflected on the tough job that Sean and his fellow insurance agents were facing. They undoubtedly would be inundated with flooded out homeowners who wondered if their losses would be covered. Flood insurance is often unavailable for homes located in a flood plain or too expensive to purchase. This is not a good time to be an insurance agent, I thought to myself. For the most part, they are going to have mostly bad news to dish out to their policyholders.
I reflected back on the previous year and on the car accident that fractured my vertebrae and broke my sternum. I thought if there was ever a time that insurance companies needed some upbeat publicity, it would be now. I normally am not in the habit of sanctioning individual businesses or companies, but in this instance, I felt something needed to be said about my agency.
Every Monday morning on our way back to St.Paul, my wife and I would pass this huge billboard that proudly states "Auto Owners Insurance: Highest in Customer Satisfaction with Insurance Claims Four Years in a Row." More than once I stated to my wife that I could see why.
Moments after I rolled my beloved 2004 Toyota Corolla, several of my hunting buddies were on the scene. My friend from Texas later told me that the first words out of my mouth were, "God, I loved that car." By the next afternoon, an Auto Owners' agent was on the phone asking for details so they could quickly process a claim. Although they could never bring back my esteemed Corolla, within a few days I received what I felt was more than a fair price for the car. For the next six months, every medical expense was promptly paid, including the mileage for the many trips to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester. Although my physical outcome had a positive ending (my back and sternum fully healed), this time could have been much more stressful if the insurance company had not been as exceedingly helpful as they were.
I thank the adjuster in St. Cloud who followed through in every instance of processing my claim for going above and beyond the call of duty. She always asked my wife, "How is he doing?" She also was the one who informed us about our eligibility for the time and travel expenses involved. But here is the real kicker — she began to inquire about our work status. My wife mentioned that I was retired and that she worked full-time as manager/editor for a publishing company.
"So you work full-time and he takes care of all the household duties and so forth?" she queried. "Well then, he qualifies as a disabled homemaker."
I was more than adequately reimbursed for the inability to perform my homemaker duties for I was indeed disabled. For the next six months I was ordered to sit in my chair with a very restrictive turtle shell wrapped around me, while my body healed itself. I felt almost tortured as I followed doctor's orders: No lifting, no pulling, no pushing, no prolonged standing, no working and so on. But thanks to a helpful insurance company who always looked out for my best interest, a very stressful time for me and my wife was alleviated by their priority of taking care of the customer. Every time I shared this story with friends, the response was always the same, "Who's your insurance company?"
I also thank Sean, Kari, and Chris down at Moose Lake Independent Agency for treating me for the past 20-some years, not just as a customer, but more like a friend. You're the best.


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Watch the launch of State of the World 2014
Worldwatch Institute released its latest edition of the annual publication State of the World 2014: Governing for Sustainability, on Tuesday April 29, in Washington, D.C.
This year's edition marks the Worldwatch Institute's 40th anniversary and discusses the importance of reclaiming legitimate governance as a means to reach a more sustainable world.
Speakers this year included:
- Project Co-directors Michael Renner and Tom Prugh
- Keynote speaker David Orr, Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics at Oberlin College
and contributing authors:
- Gar Alperovitz, co-founder of the Democracy Collaborative
- Petra Bartosiewicz, freelance journalist and author of the book The Best Terrorists We Could Find
- Colleen Cordes, Director of Outreach and Development for the Nature Institute in Ghent, New York
- Thomas Palley, currently the Schwartz Economic Growth Fellow at the New America Foundation
- Sean Sweeney, director and founder of the Global Labor Institute at the Cornell School of Industrial and labor Relations in New York City
Click here for the agenda. Click below or here to watch the video of the launch.

subset: commoncrawl


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From Iraq to the operating table to the softball field, Dighton veteran Greg Reynolds' story of recovery and personal triumph has inspired nearly all who meet him.
From Iraq to the operating table to the softball field, Dighton veteran Greg Reynolds' story of recovery and personal triumph has inspired nearly all who meet him.
On Wednesday, Feb. 1, that story continues as 27-year-old Reynolds takes to the football field. He and seven teammates from the Wounded Warriors Amputee Softball Team (WWAST) will participate in the festivities leading up to this year's Super Bowl, in a flag football game against former and active NFL players at the Indianapolis Indoor Sports.
"I think it's a great opportunity that they're letting us play with Super Bowl stars," said Reynolds. "I'm a big New England fan, so I'm pretty pumped."
Iraq deployment
Reynolds' journey began when he enlisted in the United States Army at the age of 17.
He said his mother, Gwen, first contacted recruiters about his enlistment on Sept. 10, 2001, one day before the infamous terrorist attacks. He enlisted on Nov. 21, 2001, while he was still attending Dighton-Rehoboth High School.
In April 2003 — a month after the U.S. first invaded Iraq — Reynolds landed in Kuwait.
His 15-month deployment included months of training and 369 days in Iraq as a motor transport operator with the 4th Infantry Division.
"As a motor vehicle transport operator, I was licensed to drive any wheeled vehicle," said Reynolds. "When I wasn't driving, I was on the machine gun."
His unit's home base was in Tikrit, Iraq — Saddam Hussein's hometown — but his unit was constantly involved in convoys that traveled across the country.
Reynolds said his unit logged more than 1,000,000 miles of missions during his tour.
"That pretty much equates to, you're always on the road," he said.
While he wasn't in the infantry or a more traditional combat role, Reynolds' job in Iraq was nonetheless dangerous, as convoys were commonly the targets of ambushes and improvised explosive devices.
"Every day, I left the gate not knowing if I would come back in one piece," he said.
Motorcycle accident
Reynolds returned from Iraq in 2004, and, ironically, it was back in the United States that he was severely injured.
"(I thought) I left death behind me. … (But) while on a Sunday drive with my buddies, a 75-year old Korean vet pulled out in front of me from a stop sign when I was on my motorcycle," said Reynolds.
That was on June 22, 2008, a day that has forever changed the lives of the entire Reynolds family.
"In three seconds, his life changed, my life changed," said Gwen Reynolds.
Reynolds was given a 1-in-2,000 chance of survival, according to Gwen. If it wasn't for the quick action of the EMT who was first on the scene, who had 25 years of experience, he likely would not have made it.
Gwen also said the top trauma surgeon at the hospital where Reynolds was taken also happened to be working on that day, which contributed to Reynolds' beating the odds.
"(The surgeon) couldn't believe I even made it to the operating table, because my heart was exposed," said Reynolds.
On the brink of death, Reynolds received 101 units of blood and a number of operations all while he was in a coma — during which his survival was not guaranteed.
"His friends said at that time, 'If anyone can get through this, it's Greg,'" said Gwen.
After six weeks, Reynolds awoke from his coma, but as a result of his accident, his left arm was amputated at the shoulder.
Road to recovery
Doctor's told Gwen that Reynolds' future was bleak after his accident.
"They said, 'You may never walk again or know who you are,'" said Gwen to Reynolds.
Reynolds spent about three months in the hospital, during which he had to relearn everyday activities that most of us take for granted.
"It was like being a newborn kid all over again… It was tough, real tough," said Reynolds.
But with hard work, perseverance and determination, a mere four months after being released from the hospital, Reynolds was skiing as part of a Veterans Administration (V.A.) adaptive sports clinic.
He also went surfing, rock climbing and bicycle riding through these clinics, among other activities.
"Before the softball team, I was very active in V.A. adaptive sports clinics," said Reynolds. "They were really what helped me get to the level I'm at."
The WWAST
It was through these clinics that Reynolds caught the eye of David van Sleet and was contacted to try out for the WWAST.
"David van Sleet was looking for top athletic guys with baseball and softball experience," said Reynolds. "I've been playing baseball my whole life, and I played softball on one team. So I jumped at the opportunity."
Formed in March 2011 by founder and head coach van Sleet, the WWAST is a one-of-a-kind team.
"We're a Wounded Warrior Amputee Softball Team with all veterans being from Iraq and Afghanistan," said van Sleet. "…They've become a special group. Most of these guys didn't even think they were going to work again, let alone walk or play sports."
Van Sleet, who's worked with prosthetics with the V.A. for more than 30 years, has coached many softball teams in his lifetime, and he founded the team through the V.A. to combine his two passions.
The team held tryouts in Tucson, Ariz., and of the 20 veterans that showed up, 15 made the team.
Reynolds was one of those 15.
"I had to learn to catch all over again," said Reynolds, who plays left-centerfield for the team. "After I make a catch, I have to get the ball in pretty quickly. I learned to bat, too, so now I can hang and bang with the rest of them."
He spent much of his time preparing for the tryouts at Fielder's Choice on Rt. 44, where he learned a technique to catch the ball, toss it in the air, and catch and throw it all with the same hand.
"He's remarkable," said van Sleet. "He lost his shoulder and his arm, and he's developed a technique to catch the ball, flip it up and throw it."
The WWAST has played softball against firefighters, police officers, first responders, members of the FBI, other armed forces teams, and even the 1996 and 2000 Olympic gold medal women's softball teams.
"We only play able-bodied teams. We don't play any disabled teams," said Reynolds, and despite a few losses, the team usually does well.
"When we get the bats going and have solid 'D,' we can get some runs up there," said Reynolds. "We can put up some numbers. We can play really good."
The team has played in venues across the country, including Washington, D.C.; Las Vegas; Panama City, Fla.; and San Diego and Orange County, Calif. While in Florida, Reynolds and the WWAST were surprised by a visit from Major League Baseball players Johnny Damon and A. J. Pierzynski.
"They were very cool," said Reynolds. "(Damon) was really cool, down to earth."
Wednesday's game
While the team usually plays softball, van Sleet said a few players played football in high school. On Feb.1, their skills will be put to the test as they face off against former and current professionals in a flag football contest.
"This is our first time playing football," said van Sleet. "…I think being amputees and displaying their athleticism just shows that life without limbs is limitless."
Despite their comparative inexperience, Reynolds is confident his team will have a quality showing.
"I think we're going to surprise a lot of people," he said. "The ultimate goal is just to have fun, but we're all really competitive and we'd like to come home with a win. It isn't going to be easy (for the other team), that's for sure."
Wednesday's game will pit the WWAST against former and active NFL stars, including Boston College's Bill Romanowski, Hall of Famers Jack Youngblood and Jackie Slater — father of Patriot Matthew Slater — and Jerry Kramer, Dallas Clark and Jeff George.
Rocky Bleier — who won four Super Bowl championships with the Pittsburgh Steelers and is himself a Purple Heart recipient after he was wounded in Vietnam — will also be playing for the WWAST.
Major General Martin Umbarger of the Indiana National Guard will be one of the WWAST coaches for the game, and Indianapolis Mayor Gregory A. Ballard, a retired Lieutenant Colonel from the United States Marine Corps, will be honorary referee.
What happens next
Regardless of the outcome, Reynolds is happy just to be a part of the WWAST.
"Being on this team, it feels good to be around my brothers. We're all combat veterans. The bond we have on this team, it's remarkable, it's unbreakable… It has provided me an outlet not only to show my injury but that there's life after an injury, and it's up to you to make it happen," said Reynolds.
During halftime, Reynolds is likely to face off against an NFL player in a push-up contest, something that has become a tradition for the WWAST.
"Whenever we lose, I challenge the biggest and baddest guy (to a push-up contest)," Reynolds said.
In one contest against a United States Marine, Reynolds was able to outlast the Marine by one push-up after doing about 70 push-ups in total. He is 13-0 in these push-up contests, despite using one arm to face opponents with two.
On a poster in his Dighton home, Reynolds has a saying of his that truly sums up what he's all about.
"The only limitations you have are the one you make, and I don't make any."


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So what's on your nails this week? Both Product Girl Jr (my 16 year old sister who shares my beauty obsession) and I are rocking Maybelline Color Show Nail Lacquer in Coral Crush this week and we are enamored with this shade.
There's so many things to love about Maybelline's Color Show nail polishes, seriously. From the price per bottle, shade selection, finishes to formula, it is all worth your time and money. We received samples of various shades but have since then picked up several others to add to our arsenal. I have a feeling you will too.
With the exception of this shade, most shades are opaque in two coats, wear for a long time and are easy to apply and work with. Coral Crush needed three coats and was a tad streaky but we don't mind that since we love the shade so much. It's gorgeous on all skintones. All in the name of beauty, right?


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ACA coverage is one-sided
To the editor:
I am sick of the Daily Mining Gazette's campaign against the Affordable Care Act masquerading as news. It's not just the inane political cartoons dredged from the depths of stupidity and the incessant opinion columns opposing the law that has been ratified by the Congress and the Supreme Court. What I really object to are articles like the one in the Friday, September 27, paper misleadingly entitled "Heath law online sign-up delayed."
From the article, it is clear that the glitches are minor, do not apply to more than a few groups, and are largely caused by the relentless campaign by Republicans and their backers to block the implementation of the law in any way they can.
If governors of the 36 states who have decided they can't be bothered to set up health insurance exchanges to help those millions of their citizens who can't otherwise afford health care – yes, that's why it was called the Affordable health care act – had done so, the federal government might have been able to get the online system running perfectly and on time for the sign-up. In states that have set up exchanges, everything is running fine.
The slight delays, as is clear from the article (and not from the headline), are due to government officials working hard to make sure the process works properly and will not delay people's receipt of health care coverage.
The official quoted as saying the problem is serious represents a small business lobby that has been fighting the implementation of the act from the beginning.
The editorial cartoon channeling Dr. Seuss is equally misleading. If you finish the book you find out that after trying green eggs and ham, the guy says, "I do so like green eggs and ham."
When you get good information on Obamacare, you will too -as long as you don't get it from the fox in the box.
Like all programs designed to address complex issues, the Affordable Care Act will need to be fine-tuned as it is implemented. The Social Security Act was relentlessly opposed when it was introduced and underwent many revisions to become the crucial support it now is for seniors like me who no longer receive pensions from their employers or never have.
Please cease your one-sided "reporting" of the roll-out of this important safeguard for the 99.9 percent of people in our country.
Marilyn Cooper


text: Excessive heat can cause both plants and gardeners to wilt. While a hat and a wet bandana can help during the hot summers months, some gardeners are keeping cool with new high-tech air-conditioned jackets. In Kagoshima, Japan, scorching summer temperatures … Read More. Hive Five for Largest Solar Farm Apiary in America. The largest solar farm apiary in America will come alive at Old Sol Apiaries in Oregon, with 48 hives arriving on the site just in time for National Pollinator Week, June 18-22. Old Sol's founder, John Jacob, says that the … Read More. Farmerettes: Women Who Farmed and Gardened for Victory. They were known as "farmerettes"–the hard working women on the home front who mobilized by the thousands to fill agricultural labor shortages during the First and Second World Wars. On big farms and in small Victory Gardens, they challenged conventional … Read More. 26 Last Minute Home and Garden Mother's Day Gifts. It's not too late to celebrate your cultivated Mom with these last minute Mother's Day gardening gifts for the gardener! 1. Monticello Gardener's Gift Basket From the shop of Thomas Jefferson's plantation residence, Monticello, comes this artfully arranged keepsake basket … Read More.


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For immediate release w/photos
IGFA now has an iPhone app loaded with great featuresHave IGFA World Records, fish IDs and so much more at your fingertips
DANIA BEACH, Fla., USA -- Youre still reeling from your fish fight and the one you just brought to the boat is definitely your biggest yet but is it an IGFA World Record? How will you weigh it, and how will you share the moment with your buddies back on land?
Finally, the IGFA has an iPhone app anglers have been asking for. The IGFA Mobile Appwill amaze your friends and inspire your fishing adventures with all the knowledge youll have at your fingertips. You can quickly identify your catches with stunning full-color images, then search for vacant, pending, and standing IGFA World Records, all from this amazing app.
Even if your fish is a pound shy of a record, this app has plenty of functions for every angler. From planning your next trip to tracking your IGFA Slam Club progress to sharing your catches with family and friends, the IGFA Mobile has you covered.
Check out some of its many features:
ü World Record Database - Want to know how your catch measures up to the worlds greatest? The app is automatically updated with the latest records on over 1100 species when it is opened and connected to a cellular or wi-fi connection. Great for comparing what youve hooked or planning to fill a vacant record. Its an IGFA exclusive.
ü IGFA Species ID - Along with marine artists Diane Rome Peebles and Duane Ravers incredible full-color images of every record game species, the ID descriptions include extensive reference material from the IGFA including thorough habitat information, geographic distribution and anatomy and its only available from the experts at the IGFA.
ü My Catches - Take a photo (iPhone 3Gs or 4) of the monster fish you land, enter the details of your fight and upload to Facebook or email with one easy step. On the iPhone or iPad, GPS functions will automatically record the location of your catches as you log them.
ü Quest List This is for anglers on a mission. Track your progress towards your next IGFA Weight Club (for bass, snook, or bonefish) or IGFA Slam Club. You can also create your own customizable quest.
ü IGFA Weigh Stations - Do you think your catch is close to the current record? One quick tap and youll know how close you are to an official IGFA Weigh Station, with maps to help you get there, and its also an IGFA exclusive.
ü Trip Planning List - A successful angler is a prepared angler, and using your list will give you the best shot of having a great day on the water.
ü IGFA Rules - Make sure your catch counts every time. Consult the IGFA International Angling Rules for both conventional and flyrod to make sure your next catch wont be disqualified and its only available from the IGFA.
So whats the cost for all of these great benefits that the IGFA iPhone Mobile App? Its justa one time charge at the introductory price of $8.99. And it also works on the iPad too.
Go to http://www.igfa.org/Fish/IGFA-Mobile.aspx to learn more on this great fishing advancement.
10/20/2010 IGFA PR counsel - Pete Johnson, Johnson Communications,###
Scottsdale, Ariz., USA -- 480-951-3654 (ph) -- firstname.lastname@example.com
(photo captions: Heres a sample of three of the new IGFA Mobile iPhone screens: main menu selection, world records database at your fingertips and species ID)


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- This event has passed.
BACD Start Up Session
August 22, 2018 @ 2:00 pm - 3:30 pmFree
Event Navigation
This session is for budding entrepreneurs and those considering opening their own small business and a great place for you to start exploring the fundamentals of starting a business. There must be a hundred questions running around in your head! Find answers to these questions!
This session is presented by BACD's advisors.
After attending this session, we strongly recommend that you also attend the Business Fundamentals 1 – 3, that cover Business Planning, Marketing & Sales, and Financials & Operations. These sessions are designed to help you get your business started and ready to maintain and grow successfully.
In this session we will discuss:
The Business Idea and its feasibility
Undertaking Market Research
Forms of Business Structure
Knowing the rules, regulations, licenses and permits for running a business
and other general questions you may have to get started
Start Up Checklist and other tools
Please arrive 15 minutes prior to the event, to allow time for check-in. Please note: the event starts at the specified event time. If you are more than 20 minutes late you will not be allowed to enter the event room.
Do I have to bring my printed ticket to the event?
No you do not need to bring a ticket with you
What can/can't I bring to the event?
You don't need to bring anything but your questions and a notebook if needed.
Is there Parking?
Yes there is plenty of free parking.
For more information, call us at (905) 668-4949 or email firstname.lastname@example.com


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By the ANDC team
Regular readers of our blog will know that at the Australian National Dictionary Centre we recently initiated a new feature on our website called Word Box. This feature enables members of the public to submit words that are either new to them or used in an unfamiliar way. Word Box is alerting us to new words and meanings that may be used in updating our general dictionaries, or included in our collection of Australian words. The team at the ANDC would like to thank all those who have already contributed to Word Box, and we encourage everyone to participate. Here are a few of the more interesting contributions. Continue reading


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01489 550999
Servicing & Repairs
We can provide Servicing and Repairs for all types of garden equipment including lawnmowers (both ride on mowers and walk behind mowers), chainsaws, brushcutters, cultivators, hedgetrimmers.
Sharpening Service
Sharpening and balancing of rotary mowers and machine sharpening of chainsaws
Flymo have a wide range of products to suit all of your gardening needs, making the job even quicker and easier with their lightweight and highly efficient range. The Flymo product range includes lawn mowers, grass trimmers, robotic mowers and hedge trimmers plus a lot more beside.
Products In Flymo
Sort By: Price Low to High | Price High to Low
(Total Products 2, Showing: 1 -> 2)


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Will Copyright Law Save New York Area Baseball Fans?
As the landmark dispute over retransmission consent fees between Fox and Cablevision threatens to drag on through Tuesday, New York area baseball fans who are also Cablevision subscribers are scrambling to make alternative plans to view or hear the game. One ostensibly legal option they have is to view the Tuesday game between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies on a new internet television service that retransmits broadcasters' signals over the internet. Keep Reading


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NEW YORK, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- Joe Johnson, C.J. Watson and Brook Lopez each surpassed 20 points Wednesday, boosting the Brooklyn Nets over Denver 119-108.
Johnson (26 points, nine assists), Watson (25 points) and Lopez (23, eight rebounds) teamed up to help send the Nuggets to their third straight loss.
Kris Humphries played a key role off the bench with 14 points for the Nets.
Denver was led by Ty Lawson with 26 points.
Jordan Hamilton helped out with 15 and JaVale McGee added 14 for the Nuggets.


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Serviços Personalizados
Links relacionados
- Citado por Google
- Similares em Google
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
versão On-line ISSN 2222-3436
versão impressa ISSN 1015-8812
S. Afr. j. econ. manag. sci. vol.15 no.3 Pretoria Jan. 2012
Basel III Countercyclical Capital Rules: implications for South Africa
Gary van Vuuren
Department of Economics, North-West University
The financial crisis has been blamed on many entities, institutions and individuals as well as the Basel II accord which had just begun to be implemented globally when the crisis erupted. The criticisms resulted in the construction of Basel III, a series of measures designed to augment and repair (but not replace) the Basel II accord. One of these adjuncts addresses the problem of economic procyclicality and suggests ways to mitigate it through capital charge increases when economies overheat and capital charge reduction in economic contractions. The consequences of this proposed measure's introduction for South African banks is explored.
Key words: Basel III, procyclical, countercyclical, buffer capital
1 Introduction
The financial crisis that has wreaked havoc in global financial markets since August 2007 had its origins in an asset price bubble that interacted with new kinds of financial innovations that masked risk (Baily, Litan & Johnson, 2008). The crisis precipitated, inter alia, a calamitous reduction of bank lending and the widespread destruction of the securitysation and structured product markets. Later (2010 through 2012) the crisis manifested itself through sovereign insolvency (among the worst affected were Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy) and it heralded an ever deepening distrust of the accuracy of credit ratings and the efficacy of regulatory capital directives (Sorkin, 2010).
The (then - 2008) new set of regulatory capital rules called Basel II had been finalised by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (the BCBS) under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (the BIS) in 2006 and sections of the accord had begun to be implemented globally by the time the crisis erupted (Ayadi, 2008). This Basel II accord was designed, like its predecessor Basel I, to prevent (at best) and forewarn (at worst) impending economic disasters by ensuring the safety and soundness of the global banking system (BCBS, 2006). When the scale and duration of the credit crisis became apparent, however, the market perception of this flagship accord was that of spectacular failure. National governments, credit rating agencies, bankers, regulators, central banks and quantitative models which employed unrealistic assumptions were among those at whom blame for the crisis was levelled (US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 2010).
Whatever the truth of the accusations, each alleged accomplice quickly set about rectifying mistakes in their own way, adapting and amending procedures and approaches and - in the BISs case - devising a comprehensive repair kit to existing regulatory measures (BCBS, 2010a). This repair kit came to be known as Basel III and this is an important point worth emphasising: Basel III does not, nor was it ever intended to, replace Basel II. The vast bulk of Basel II rules remain intact: Basel III aims to repair those parts of the accord deemed inadequate (e.g. reconstitute the composition of acceptable regulatory capital), augment and adapt several accord components (e.g. revisit the capital required for the trading book) and introduce novel themes to revitalise the accord (e.g. introduce a leverage ratio and a handful of capital buffers which effectively increase the capital ratio of 8.0 per cent to 10.5 per cent and, under certain circumstances, to 13.0 per cent).1 One of these novel introductions - the procyclical capital buffer - is the focus of this paper.
The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 interrogates the literature regarding economic procyclicality, its origins and implications on a broad global scale. The BCBS's choice of procyclical measure is dealt with in Section 3. The BCBS have argued convincingly in favour of this measure as a means of dampening uncontrolled economic expansion and have enjoyed some success in applying it to financial indicators in highly developed economies such as the US and UK. It is by no means conclusive that an identical metric will be as effective when applied to smaller, developing economies, such as South Africa's.
The BCBS's chosen procyclicality metric requires the calculation of two components: a calibrated measure of regional economic activity and this measure's long run trend. The procyclicality metric operates by activating a staggered increase in regulatory capital based upon the difference between these two components. The Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been selected by the BCBS to determine the economic activity measure's long run trend. Section 4 introduces and discusses the HP filter, assesses its relevance and applicability to financial data and points out the pros and cons of its use. Some problems associated with the filter - among them end point problems - exist and these are also presented in this section. The HP filter is then applied to South African data and the results analysed and presented in Section 5. Some supporting evidence regarding the periodicity of some of South Africa's financial indicators is also presented in this section using Fourier analysis. The article concludes with Section 6.
2 Literature review
Procyclicality refers to those economic quantities that are positively correlated with the overall state of the economy. The credit losses that banks suffer during recessions are generally higher than those experienced during economic expansions. These losses negatively impact bank funds because, during downturns, maximum lending capacities decrease (the numerator of the capital ratio) and risk weighted assets (the denominator of the capital ratio) increase simultaneously. This combination of effects results in the intrinsic procyclicality of capital requirements - a fact deduced even before the implementation of the Basel II capital accord. Academics, practitioners and policy makers warned that capital requirements under the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach would amplify procyclicality since banks tend to kerb lending in response to recessions and increase lending during economic expansions (e.g. Heid, 2003; Catarineu-Rabell, Jackson & Tsomocos, 2003; Goodhart & Taylor, 2006). The Basel II accord would thus thwart policy maker's efforts to maintain macro-economic stability (Gordy & Howells, 2004).
Heid (2003) argued that the procyclical effects of the (then yet to be introduced) Basel II accord could be manifest in two ways. First, if asset risk (or even the mere perception of asset risk) were correlated with business cycles, capital charges would be subject to large swings leading to further asset price and interest rate volatility. Second, an increase in financial sector volatility could spread to the real sector. The surge in credit risk would lead to an increase in banks' credit risk capital, and a portion of these charge increases would be passed on to borrowers who in turn would reduce investment spending and aggravate the downturn even further.
The Bank of England (BoE) asserted that every regime that adopted a minimum capital requirement framework could stimulate financial procyclicality: during recessions banks face a combination of amplifying pressures: higher regulatory capital requirements, increased provisions and greater defaulted loan write offs (Catarineu-Rabell, Jackson & Tsomocos, 2003). The analysis, which preceded the implement-tation of the Basel II accord, showed that the procyclical impact of the new internal ratings based (IRB) methodology could be dampened by adopting a through-the-cycle (TTC) rating system which would dampen the sensitivity of borrower probabilities of default (PDs) to macroeconomic conditions despite this rating system's notoriety for being a poor internal pricing and risk-management tool. The authors used a multi-period general equilibrium framework to study market interactions and identify channels affected by policy parameter changes. They found that, although the use of a TTC method would not reduce procyclicality, using the alternative (a point in time (PIT) rating scheme) would considerably magnify procyclical effects. With the benefit of hindsight, a purely TTC approach ignored the contribution of securitisation and the vast, incorrect assignment of AAA ratings to senior securitised tranches to required capital levels (Brunnermeier, 2009). In addition, although most rating agencies claim a strong TTC approach underpinning their ratings, some research has found otherwise (Lowe, 2002).
Saurina and Turcharte (2007) constructed and tested a PD model for Spanish mortgage loans to calculate different types of PDs: PIT, TTC, average across the cycle and acyclical and found that minimum regulatory capital under Basel II was highly sensitive to the risk measurement methodology employed. TTC measures, for example, showed less variability but more capital on average than the PIT approach and acyclical ratings produced stable and relatively low requirements. The authors concluded that the procyclicality of regulatory capital requirements under Basel II would thus depend upon the way internal rating systems were implemented and how the output was utilised (Saurina & Trucharte, 2007).
Research conducted prior to the implementtation of the Basel II accord (end 2006) and the IAS 39 accounting guidelines (January 2005) found that the informational and allocative efficiency benefits of these reforms could increase procyclicality as well as market volatility (Goodhart & Taylor, 2006). The research concluded that losses on tradable assets incurred during economic downturns and booked at fair value could increase both income and profit volatility. In addition, the authors advocate that regulatory rules requiring banks to hold more capital during recessionary periods (reflecting increased potential credit losses), may result in loan book reductions and an increase in capital funding costs. The resulting credit rationing, or the higher credit costs could then result in reduced investment and consumption (Goodhart & Taylor, 2006).
A flexible simulation engine was constructed by Gordy and Howells (2004) to explore the cyclical behaviour of regulatory capital under different rating philosophies and various assumptions on how bank lending behaviour responds to the business cycle. The simulation results obtained in this research demonstrated that the extent of capital requirement cyclicality depends strongly on how new bank lending varies with macroeconomic conditions. The methodology did not allow regulatory rules applicable to new lending to be endogenous to the bank's capital position. Rather, these rules were modelled to depend exogeneously on the macroeconomic milieu. The authors' simulation results were not sufficient to convince them that procyclicality in the Basel II accord would require corrective measures. They argued that, even were regulatory capital to be smoothed in some way, it would not be possible to dampen economic capital requirement procyclicality by regulatory sanction (Gordy & Howells, 2004).
Repullo and Suarez (2008) investigated the cyclical effects of moving from risk-insensitive (Basel I) to risk-sensitive (Basel II) capital requirements using a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending. The authors assert that current levels of bank capital determine future lending since banks anticipate that earnings shocks during economic down-turns may impair their capacity for future lending. As a precautionary measure, banks hold capital buffers (Repullo & Suarez, 2008). The authors demonstrated through an endogenous, dynamic capital-structure model and with the assumption that banks have limited access to capital markets in stressed periods that Basel II would change the behaviour of these buffers from countercyclical to procyclical. In addition, results showed that higher buffers during periods of economic expansion would be insufficient to counteract the increased requirements during recessions. These effects would lead to a significant contraction in the supply of credit (Repullo & Suarez, 2008).
Rochet (2008) was not convinced that the impact of Basel II and IAS 39 on bank lending would be sizable. Even if the effects were considerable, to compensate through regulatory intervention (make target capital ratios countercyclical) 'would be a disaster' for bank incentives (Rochet, 2008). A study conducted by the Banque de France found that banks should be able to smooth regulatory ratio fluctuations by making use of their economic capital buffer. If this were the case, and despite the inherent procyclicality introduced by Basel II, the volume of credit to the economy should not be dramatically affected in economic downturns (Rochet, 2008). In addition, pillar II of the Basel II accord could mitigate the procyclical effects of the capital ratio if regulators imposed additional capital charges on banks holding insufficient economic capital (Rochet, 2008). Should governments wish to dampen economic fluctuations, appropriate policy instruments (such as fiscal and possibly monetary policy) should be used rather than prudential regulation and financial intermediary supervision (Rochet, 2008).
The Basel Committee has decided to address procyclicality in a number of ways including: the introduction of a noncyclical PD proxy in internal rating models; encouragement for provisioning policies to move to a forward-looking expected loss methodology rather than the incurred loss approach currently applied under IFRS and US GAAP and the introduction of capital buffers, proactively adjusted to take macroeconomic factors into account (Barnes, De Toytot, Sprinzen & Chan, 2010).
The collective aim of these proposals is to address detrimental trends such as lending growth, liquidity mismatches and increasing leverage before they exceed historical long run averages i.e. before they 'overheat'. Although some regulators are able to adjust minimum capital requirements and alter underwriting criteria, the track record of the application of this influence has been mixed. This could be due in part to a reluctance of local regulators to penalise domestic banks relative to international competitors but the credit crisis may strengthen resolve (Barnes et al., 2010).
Having investigated the origin and effect of procyclicality in finance, as well as the effects - intentional or otherwise - of the Basel II accord on procyclicality, the next section addresses the BCBS proposals to introduce a countercyclical capital measure.
3 Mitigating procyclicality
Regulators have long been aware of problems posed by procyclicality of the financial system, but the financial crisis contributed to the acceleration in efforts to provide frameworks and tools to address these.
The BCBS's principal objective underlying the introduction of countercyclical capital standards is to encourage banks to increase capital buffers in times of economic expansion that may be then drawn down during economic contractions (BCBS, 2010b). These buffers are not to be considered as prudential minimum capital requirements, but rather unencumbered capital in excess of that minimum. The idea is that this capital should be available - in times of economic stress - to absorb losses. Building up buffer capital accumulation in times of economic expansion should strengthen individual banks' defences (and thus the system as a whole) thereby addressing the fact that risks accumulate rapidly in favourable economic conditions, but the consequences of these risks become manifest only after significant lags (BCBS, 2010b).
In designing a functional countercyclical capital buffer scheme, the BCBS aimed to fulfil two related objectives (Drehmann, Claudio, Gambacorta, Jimenez & Trucharte, 2010), namely to limit system-wide risk by strengthening the banking system's resilience against shocks and to limit the banking system from amplifying economic fluctuations.
Desirable features of the effective scheme would need to include:
1) Correct timing: of buffer capital accumulation and release. This equates to identifying economic expansions and contractions correctly.
2) Suitable capital buffer size: accumulating during economic expansions, this capital must be able to absorb losses adequately in recessionary periods without triggering further stresses.
3) Robustness against regulatory arbitrage.
4) International enforceability.
5) Rule-based: thereby acting as an automatic stabiliser.
6) Low implementation costs.
7) Simplicity and transparency.
The BCBS considered setting a target buffer capital ratio above the minimum capital ratio, with the gap between the two either at a fixed level (which is fixed during expansionary or recessionary economic periods but takes on different [fixed] values depending on the prevailing economic milieu - Figure 1a) or moving countercyclically (i.e. increasing [linearly] in expansionary economic periods and declining [linearly] in recessionary periods - Figure 1b).
In the former scheme, a fixed buffer ratio of X% is chosen when the prevailing economic conditions are favourable so that the capital ratio = minimum capital ratio + X%. The value of X% drops instantaneously to 0 per cent in recessionary periods, so the regulatory minimum capital ratio becomes the relevant constraint (BCBS, 2010b). Fixed capital targets can be automatically stabilising because their incidence varies over the economic cycle, but these fixed targets require careful construction to avoid inducing the very procyclicality they are designed to prevent. For example, although punitive minimum capital requirements can constrain risk-taking during economic expansions, they can also encourage the rapid disposal of risky assets at times of tighter credit conditions (Drehmann et al., 2010).
The latter scheme considers a linearly increasing target in expansionary periods until an upper limit of y% is reached with the accumulation related to a conditioning variable (e.g. credit growth, earnings or credit spreads). Release of the buffer when recessionary conditions arise would be gradual (and, ideally, linked to the same conditioning variable).
Bottom-up (bank-specific) and top-down (system-wide) conditioning variables were considered by the BCBS in the construction of a countercyclical capital scheme.
Bottom-up approaches produced sizeable idiosyncratic components, implying considerable differences in the values of bank adjustment factors, even after broad financial stability pressure accumulation. Bank-specific factor persistence was also found to be minimal under this approach, resulting in substantial target countercyclical capital buffer volatility (Drehmann et al., 2010:20).
Top-down approaches fared better (and were eventually adopted by the BCBS), in particular the aggregate credit growth-to-real GDP growth ratio, despite some concern that the optimal variables2 used to signal the timing and rate of buffer accretion were not always optimal for signalling buffer depletion timings and rates. Top-down data are available in all jurisdictions; in contrast to bottom-up approach variables (e.g. CDS spreads) which are bank-specific and not always available. An additional benefit of using the credit growth-to-GDP growth ratio as a conditioning variable is that a time-varying target on credit expansion in favourable economic conditions may also kerb credit booms (Drehmann et al., 2010:21).
In the construction of a countercyclical buffer scheme, a persistent problem was how to measure the financial cycle. Several variables were considered, including measures of bank performance (e.g. earnings, losses or asset quality, CDS spreads), financial activity (e.g. credit growth) and the cost and availability of credit (e.g. credit spreads). Some problems which arose included the fact that financial and real (output) cycles do not necessarily coincide: the relationship between these variables often varies over time, severe financial stresses do not necessarily arise in each recessionary period and leads and lags between financial indicator output peaks and troughs are often significant and highly variable (Brunnermeier, 2009).
Measures of aggregate output and credit growth were considered the most natural indicators for the state of the financial cycle.3 Even though the collective behaviour of the banking sector may still influence aggregate macro indicators, they offer the advantage that they are immune to strategic manipulation by individual banks (Saurina & Trucharte, 2007). Widespread availability of most macro-economic series was also taken into account by the BCBS in their final decision regarding input variables of which two were particularly interesting.
1) Real GDP growth was considered by the BCBS to be "the most natural indicator" of a specific economy's aggregate business cycle. Business and the financial cycles however, although interconnected, are not always synchronised.
2) Aggregate real credit growth was considered to be a "natural measure of supply", (all sources of credit are taken into account, not only bank credit) since historical boom periods have been characterised by rapid credit expansion and credit contraction has typically heralded credit crunches (Drehmann et al., 2010).
The deviation of aggregate real credit growth from its long run trend was considered a possible informative variable to use to evaluate the state of the financial cycle. The final decision (and the measure adopted by the BCBS as part of the Basel III amendments) was not these deviations, but rather deviations from the long run trend of the aggregate credit-to-real GDP growth ratio (hereafter the "creditto-GDP ratio" and the difference between this ratio and the long run trend the "credit-to-GDP gap") due to financial deepening, for example.
The credit-to-GDP ratio normalises the aggregate credit growth variable to take into account the synchronised movement of credit demand and supply with the size of the economy. There is, in addition, a strong historical link between enhanced4 credit-to-GDP growth and crises that have erupted in the banking sector. It is important to note that even though the credit-to-GDP gap normalises the volume of credit by GDP and corrects for changes in the long run trend, it remains a statistical metric and may not, therefore, fully take into account the equilibrium level of lending given the state of the economy.
The next problem to be solved - how to ascertain and measure the long run trend of the credit-to-GDP gap - is explored in the next section.
4 The Hodrick Prescott filter
A popular method of trend-extraction from data is the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter (Ley, 2006). The HP filter was first introduced by Hodrick and Prescott in 1980 (Hodrick & Prescott, 1980) in the context of estimating business cycles, but the research was only published in 1997 after the filter had gained widespread popularity in macroeconomics (Hodrick & Prescott, 1997). The BCBS also chose the HP filter to detrend relevant macroeconomic ratio data and thus extract the information required to evaluate excessive growth in economies (see Section 3).
The HP filter has been criticised for a number of limitations and undesirable properties (Ravn & Uhlig, 2002). Canova (1994 and 1998) agreed in principle with the use of the HP filter to extract business cycles (of average duration between 4 to 6 years) from macro-economic data, but doubted the methodology for determining key parameter inputs. Spurious cycles and distorted estimates of the cyclical component when using the HP filter were obtained by Harvey and Jaeger (1993) who argued that this property may lead to misleading conclusions regarding the relationship between short-term movements in macro-economic time series data. Cogley and Nason (1995) also found spurious cycles (and extreme second-order properties in detrended data) when using the HP filter on difference-stationary input data. Application of the HP filter to US time series data was found to alter measures of persistence, variability and co-movement dramatically (King & Rebelo, 1993). Many of these critiques do not provide sufficient compelling evidence to discourage use of the HP filter. As a result, it remains widely-used among macroeconomists for detrending data which exhibit short term fluctuations superimposed on business cyclelike trends (Ravn & Uhlig, 2002).
The idea which on which the HP filter rests is that an observable macroeconomic time series (Xt) may be decomposed into its long run, non-stationary secular trend (Xt) and a (ct):
Neither the long run trend nor the cycle is directly observable so detrending approaches generally define these elements somewhat arbitrarily. The HP filter extracts the cycle by solving Equation 2, a standard-penalty program:
where the parameter, λ, controls the smoothness of the adjusted trend series, Tt, i.e., as λ → 0, the trend approximates the actual series, Xt, while as λ → ∞ the trend becomes linear and the procedure converges to a standard least squares solution (Mise, Kim & Newbold, 2005). The optimisation procedure in Equation 1 maximises the fit to the trend of the series, i.e. minimise the cycle component Ct by minimising changes in the gradient of the trend Xt. Note that both Xt and Ct are unobservable and since Ct is a stationary process, Xt may be thought of as a noisy signal for the non-stationary trend Tt.
Hodrick and Prescott (1980) originally suggested an exogenous and subjective value of 1 600 for the value of λ for quarterly data, but Backus and Kehoe (1992) proposed adjusting λ based upon the square of the frequency of observations relative to quarterly data. The relative frequency is 3 for monthly data and 0.25 for annual data, so the corresponding λs are 14 400 and 100, respectively. Despite on-going research (e.g. Ravn &Uhlig, 2002; Marcet & Ravn, 2003) who derived endogenous values for λ by solving Equation 1 as a constrained minimisation problem) the values for λ discussed above are still in common use (Mise, Kim & Newbold, 2005). The optimal value for λ for South African business cycle data was explored by du Toit (2008) who argued that the optimal smoothing constant was that value of λ that least distorts the frequency information of the time series (in this case, λ = 524 for quarterly data used to evaluate a business cycle with a frequency of ~7 years -see Figure 2). The HP filter has been used to (e.g.) explore South African business cycles and estimate long-run output levels (see Woglom, 2003; Kaseeram, Nichola & Mainardi, 2004; Fedderke & Schaling, 2005; Burger & Marinkov, 2006). Drehman et al., (2010) found λ = 1600 and λ = 25 000 performed poorly on historical data whilst λ = 125000 and λ = 400000 performed well with quarterly data. The higher value of λ = 400000 is considered important from a policy perspective as it provides both a greater range and more time when the indicator provides strong and reliable signals.
The solution to Equation 2 has been shown Danthine and Girardin 1989 to be.
where x =[Χι ] (i.e. the observed time series), τ = [τι,.....τΤ] ,I is a TXT identity matrix, and K = kj] is a (t- 2jxt matrix with elements:
which results in
The HP filtering procedure optimises the fit to the data series, but this optimality is based on the application of the filter to an infinitely long time series. For practical purposes, the estimation of the trend and cycle components works well for a moderately long series (Mise, Kim & Newbold, 2005), but at the end points the HP filter is demonstrably suboptimal. The two-sided, symmetrical filter applies large symmetrical weights to the end points of the observed values5 to determine the corresponding trend value (Ley, 2006) disproportionately distorting the filtered values at the most recent time period (Baxter & King, 1995; Apel, Hansen & Lindberg, 1996; St-Amant & van Norden, 1997).
Kaiser and Maravall (1999) also investigated the end-point problem and found considerable improvement performance if the filter was applied to a data series which had been extended with ARIMA forecasts and backcasts. Problems with the two-sided filter are also alleviated by implementing a sing/e-sided filter, a procedure which employs the standard two-sided HP filter incrementaUy for the construction of the long term trend. The trend is determined using only information available at the time the assessment was made (Drehmann et al., 2010) and is implemented by running a loop over time and retaining the final value from the standard HP-filtered output at each point in time (Mehra, 2006). The BCBS's proposed countercyclical buffer ratio requires the use cycle and trend data generated from a one-sided HP filter which can differ considerably from two-sided filtered data as shown in Figure 2.
5 The HP filter applied to South African data
The data chosen were monthly nominal GDP and credit extended by all monetary institutions to the domestic private sector, since 1965. These data are prescribed by the BCBS (BCBS, Guidance for national authorities operating the countercyclical capital buffer, 2010b) and obtained from the Reserve Bank of South Africa. From these data, growth rates were determined and the credit growth/GDP ratio determined. For ease of comparison, the growth rates in Figure 3 of these two components were normalised to 100 at January 2000 and plotted on the same timescale. Note that although the difference between these two variables declined after the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, this is due to a flattening of credit growth while GDP continued to increase. The former has begun to increase (2011), but the South African GDP growth is increasing at a greater rate -narrowing the gap between them.
South African data from January 1966 were used to determine the credit growth/GDP growth ratio as well as this ratio's long-run trend. Initial examination of these data, using standard Fourier analysis, indicates that they exhibit cyclical behaviour. This result is not unexpected since they comprise several macroeconomic components (such as the economic - or business - cycle) which are inherently cyclical (Figure 4a). Further analysis isolates the major frequency components. The frequency spectrum in Figure 4b indicates that the main component has a frequency of approximately 7 years. This is the duration of South Africa's business cycle, found previously (Botha, 2004).
Using these macroeconomic data, the credit growth/GDP growth ratio was constructed as well as the long run trend using both the one and two-sided HP filters. The results obtained - and they are very different for the two possible choices of HP filter - are shown in Figure 5 from January 2000 to January 2011. In each case, the value of λ used was 14 400.
The difference between the ratio and its long run trend (estimated by both one- and two-sided HP filters) is shown in Figure 6 below, spanning the same period as Figure 5. The cycles - although similar in shape - differ markedly in magnitude and in many instances over the time period represented have opposite signs. These factors are of considerable import in the determination of countercyclical capital charges (Section 3).
Table 1 summarises the proposed Basel III countercyclicality capital rules.
Note that the last column ('total capital ratio') refers to the capital ratio after the full implementation of Basel III as it currently stands (June 2011). The minimum capital ratio of 8 per cent increases under current proposals to 10.5 per cent by 2017 - the extra 2.5 per cent arising from the new 'capital conservation buffer'. The rules presented in Table 1 are displayed graphically in Figure 7.
These rules were then applied to the South African credit/GDP data to determine what the capital charges would have been had the new countercyclical rules been in place historically.
The results are shown in Figure 8 for the capital charges using both a one-sided and two-sided HP filter and using a λ of 14 400 in each case.
The BCBS's implementation of the Basel III countercyclical rules aims to discourage banks from excessive credit extension (relative to local GDP growth) through increasing capital charges. Some pertinent features emerge from this analysis. The onesided HP filter misses the economic expansion experienced towards the end of the last millennium (which preceded the dotcom crisis of 2000), but this is detected by the two-sided HP filter.
Both the one and two-sided HP filters detect the 2003 - 2004 acceleration in credit extension. Although South Africa largely escaped the worst excesses of the financial fallout, the effects were felt nevertheless. Had the Basel III rules been in place, capital charges would have increased to the 2.5 per cent maximum of extra capital required during this period. Interestingly, even without the actual introduction of punitive capital charges in place - the ratio quickly returns to levels at which the difference between it and its long run trend would have resulted in a 0 per cent capital add-on.
The global build up to the credit crisis is missed entirely by the two-sided filter until early 2007 when capital charges jump from 0 per cent to 2.5 per cent within a single month. Had countercyclical measures been in place using the one-sided filter, a gradual build-up of supplemental capital would have already begun to occur in late 2004. As before, these capital buffers would have fallen briefly, had they been in place, towards the end of 2005 - but they would have quickly picked up again after only a brief respite.
The capital charges indicated here are not entirely realistic. The fact is that the Basel III countercyclical rules had not been implemented in the historical periods indicated in Figure 6, so bank behaviour was not modified as a result. An entirely different scenario may have played out had the countercyclical rules actually been implemented at these times. Nevertheless, it is instructive to identify periods of overheated economic activity so as to be able to estimate - even roughly - the extent of the supplemental capital charges.
A further interesting feature of this investigation shows that supplemental capital charges would have remained at their maxi mum 2.5 per cent for much of the duration of the credit crisis, diminishing to 0 per cent only in mid-2009 for the one-sided filter (and even later in 2009 for the two-sided filter). This could herald a conflict for South African banks in the future (when the Basel III countercyclical rules are implemented in full). The rules have a dual purpose -increase capital in times of economic overheating and release these when the economy is contracting. Whilst these aims are desirable, the current rules would have forced banks to hold a minimum capital ratio at punitive levels (13 per cent)6 for far too long. While it is true that most banks enjoy capital ratios in excess of these levels, in severe economic downturns, capital is depleted and ratios plummet. Forcing banks to hold extra capital (up to 2.5 per cent) for a prolonged period after a market crisis seems counterproductive: banks (and hence, the economy at large) would benefit from the release of this capital into the system in the form of loans, for example. In addition, South African regulatory authority - the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) - may also face the practical problem of having to force banks to raise this extra equity through (e.g.) rights issues, but it is not clear that shareholders would be willing to participate in these issues to further bank recapitalisation. Authorities would need to establish in advance that banks would be permitted to reprice lending and customer fees sufficiently to generate substantial equity returns (and be able to distribute up to 100 per cent of those profits in dividends over time if balance sheet growth remained anaemic). If this were not successfully communicated, subscription to a rights issue could be seen as wasting money on a losing proposition (Walters, 2011).
Were the countercyclical buffer in place, however, it would currently (2012) be set at nil (Figure 8), with credit growth the furthest below trend in at least 50 years (Figure 6). The SARB could thus be amplifying the effect of the crisis by focussing on and overreacting to only the most recent data (Ryan & Crutchley, 2012).
Other questions have arisen from affected parties. Banks are concerned by the speed of the increase in capital required: would the increased capital be required immediately after the thresholds have been breached (Table 1), for example? If so, does the reverse apply when economic conditions allow the extra capital to be released back into the system? What of the lag between the variables (credit growth and GDP)? There is evidence that these variables are out of sync in South Africa and thus would miss crucial indicators of economic overheating. GDP figures are also frequently revised - up and down - how might this affect the capital increases? The BCBS have been silent on these issues, despite the consultation period for comments having passed in 2010 and to our knowledge, the SARB has not addressed these issues either.
6 Conclusions
The BCBS have deliberately structured a gradual phase-in of the Basel III rules for banks. Several years have been granted for full Basel III implementation: some rules need only be completed by 2018 and beyond. The idea supporting this staggered approach is to prevent a further collapse in the (still fragile) global economy. Some rules, such as those governing the new minimum liquidity requirements, have attracted criticism from banks who argue that, even under the most benign conditions, they will still be unable to comply. The short term minimum liquidity standard, for example, requires banks to maintain a liquidity coverage ratio (defined as the ratio of high quality liquid assets to net 30 day cash outflows under a prescribed (and arguably severe) stress scenario) of 100 per cent. Many banks have countered that, in certain jurisdictions, there are insufficient high quality liquid assets available for the banking sector as a whole in that jurisdiction. Banks could face penalties for these shortcomings by regulators (increased capital requirements) and rating agencies (downgrades).
The countercyclical buffer capital require ment adds to the debate. Whilst the idea to implement a flexible capital requirement that increases in favourable and decreases in unfavourable economic conditions, is sensible - the current ideas proposed by the BCBS are no panacea. Tests conducted on large, developed economies indicate that the proposals are robust, reproducible and relevant (i.e. they appear - using historical data - to measure a fair amount of supplemental capital required by banks in an economically overheating region), but this may not hold for smaller economies where insufficient investigation has taken place to date.
Unlike other global central banks, the SARB did not experience any pressure to alter its monetary operations since the onset of the financial crisis (SARB, 2011). However, other measures might yet have to be considered by the SARB, for example, ratios or metrics that reflect local economic conditions accurately, or at least more accurately than the credit/GDP metric currently proposed. Lagging and leading indicator times must also be addressed, as must the frequent revision to the relevant metric inputs - even in developed economies, before the metric acquires widespread acceptance. The SARB might also alter its focus from bank stability, to the amount of leverage in the South African household sector. This leverage is high and could pose a fundamental risk to South Africa if the need arose to substantially raise interest rates to rein in inflation. However, seeking to reduce the level of debt of South African households through (house) price controls would be a contentious move for the SARB and even if it did so, a focus on leverage alone may constitute a step in the wrong direction (Walters, 2011).
The BCBS could also be clearer about the choice between the one- and two-sided HP filters. In the main document detailing the implementation of the measure, only a footnote covers this important distinction, here shown to affect the difference between the credit/GDP ratio and its long run mean (and hence capital charges) significantly.
The fact that the metric is a jurisdiction-wide measure operating on individual banks is also cause for concern. The idea that culprit banks will be reined in by victim banks if the metric is applied regionally is laudable but may not work efficiently in practice and may force many banks into default and obscurity.
Endnotes1 The capital ratio requirements under Basel II will thus potentially increase by up to 62.5 per cent after the full transition to the Basel III rules.
2 In particular, the difference between the credit growth/real GDP growth ratio from its long run trend. These values have been shown to be a leading indicator for financial distress.
3 Asset prices were also considered to be useful aggregate indicators as they tend to rise strongly ahead of systemic banking crises, but these were eventually abandoned.
4 Faster than average.
5 That is, the 2-sided HP filter uses past and future data to estimate the components of Equation 1, so cycle data generated using it could be biased.
6 Basel II capital rules require banks to maintain a capital ratio of at least 8 per cent. Basel III increases this to 10.5 per cent via the introduction of conservation buffer of an extra 2.5 per cent. A further (maximum) of 2.5 per cent then arises from countercyclical capital requirements.
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FEDDERKE, J.W. & SCHALING, E. 2005. Modelling inflation in South Africa: A multivariate cointegration analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 73(1):79-92. [ Links ]
GOODHART, C. & TAYLOR, A. 2006. Procyclicality and volatility in the financial system - the implementation of Basel II and IAS39. In S. Gerlach & P. Gruenwald (eds.) Procyclicality offinancial systems in Asia, pp. 230-251. Palgrave Macmillan. [ Links ]
GORDY, M.B. & HOWELLS, B. 2004. Procyclicality in BaselII: can we treat the disease without killing the patient? Bank for International Settlements. Available at: http://www.bis.org/bcbs/events/rtf04gordy_ howells.pdf [accessed 2011-02-13].
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Accepted: June 2012


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First thoughts: That is an attractive family. LOOKING GOOD, CUTIES.
The President started by thanking every American who participated in the election, and acknowledging the long-ass ridiculous voting lines (by the way we have to fix that! YES!). He applauded us all for making our voices heard, whether or not we're a genius or dumbass — it's the American way!
He wants to work with Romney to move this country forward. He thanked Joe "America's Happy Warrior" Biden (hehe), he talked about how awesome Michelle is and how much he loves her and YEAH DER WE ARE ALL IN LOVE WITH HER LET'S MAKE OUT. He talked about Sasha and Malia growing up, and joked about getting another dog (Wrong, one dog is never enough! Said the woman with two dogs sitting on top of her keyboard). He thanked the best ever campaign, which, pretty true, and it was generally just very inspiring.
And the part about people fighting for this country not having to fight for a roof over their head. That. The man can give a speech, and that is a fact.
We're all family. We need to move forward. Progress comes in fits and starts, a decade of war is ending, he has listened and learned, and he's now a more determined president. Love, Charity, Duty, and Patriotism, yall.
Also, FLAG HEAD LADY I LOVE YOU


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News editor
This year's Old Settlers' Day, Sept. 29 in Marion, will be the 101st iteration of the event. Any event with that long of a life has times when it waxes and wanes, and Casey Case of Marion Kiwanis — organizers of Old Setters' Day — remembers a time when Old Settlers' Day got an infusion of new energy.
Case estimated it was in the 1980s. Old Settlers' Day wasn't yet the day when all of the Marion High School graduating classes had their reunions; there were usually just a couple of class reunions that weekend. But then a push began to have all classes have reunions the weekend of Old Settlers' Day. Case said the person most responsible for that push was Bill Meyer, longtime editor of the Marion County Record.
Case said the push for more class reunions worked. And it didn't just work to bring back the classes celebrating a 10- or 20-year reunion.
"People who graduated in '71 or '73 may not have a reunion, but they know the class of '72 will have a reunion," and people are likely to come to see friends who weren't in the same graduating class, Case said.
As of Friday, Case had heard from nine of the 13 graduating classes that will be celebrating an anniversary that is a multiple of five or 10 years — going back to 1947 — who will have a float in the parade. This will be his 13th year announcing the parade. He said there aren't any parade entries yet that are out of the ordinary, but the Marion High School and Peabody-Burns High School bands will march in the parade.
This year's theme for Old Settlers' Day is "Marion City Library — Opening Books and Minds for 100 Years." The library will have an open house from 1 to 4 p.m. Sept. 29. Marion Historical Museum will also be open 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Events begin at noon Sept. 28 with the Marion Country Club Golf Tournament. Events pick up again at 8 a.m. Sept. 29 with the Old Settlers' Day Run, a 5-kilometer and 1-mile run starting at Marion County Park and Lake. The parade begins at 11 a.m. on Main Street, and a picnic in Central Park will follow the parade.
Games start in Central Park at 1 p.m., followed by a concert by MHS and Marion Middle School bands at 2 p.m. All classes having reunions will be recognized at 2:30 p.m. in the park.
This year there will be a special dance at 8 p.m. Sept. 29 at Marion County Lake, sponsored by the class of 1982. The dance will feature three live bands: Clearview, the Greenhorns, and Shag Nasty.


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My check-engine light came on the other day.
Or, as it should really be called, the "your car knows exactly what's wrong but it refuses to tell you anything useful because it enjoys watching you panic" light. It might just mean you were too busy watching your paycheck disappear at the gas station to remember to tighten the cap. Or it could mean that the car has carefully chosen this desolate stretch of highway to test your survivalist skills.
Automakers build cars today that can tell you the pressure of each tire, warn you of other vehicles in your blind spot and parallel park themselves. Features such as Ford Sync even allow you to practically have conversations with the car, which then probably spends all night complaining to other cars about your terrible taste in music.
But when something unexpectedly goes wrong, the car suddenly clams up. It just turns on this light that I suppose looks vaguely like an engine and moves to the next song on your all-Justin Bieber playlist, relieved that this is your problem to deal with now.
"You know nothing about cars," it figures. "So why should I tell you what's wrong? Just take me to the dealer, and he and I will talk it over and then tell you how much this is going to cost."
This all makes very little sense. Beyond your inexplicable Bieber obsession as an adult, I mean.
Your overly judgmental car could easily just tell you precisely what the problem is. Whatever made that little light go on gets stored as a trouble code in the onboard diagnostics computer. So why is it such a big secret?
A few months ago, the Web site Jalopnik called for the federal government to ban the generic check-engine light. It said regulators should force automakers to program cars so they display the trouble code and a basic description of the problem.
"By not letting the car's owner know what's going on in the engine, a regular driver, one who may not be particularly interested in cars, is entirely beholden to a paid professional to get hidden information from a machine they own," Jalopnik's Jason Torchinsky wrote. "That goes against the great Owner's Manifesto and puts the owner in a very vulnerable position if a mechanic or dealer was dishonest. I think -- nay, I hope -- most are honest, but without good information on both sides, how can a given owner know? And why should they not know?"
Of course, there's nothing -- besides money, anyway -- stopping an automaker from making the check-engine light more useful without the government getting involved. But it's the type of feature that could make customers happier and therefore be a worthwhile expense.
I'll give General Motors credit: I discovered that OnStar, which I have in my car, can run a remote diagnostics test and tell you why the check-engine light is on. Still, why not show that information in the dashboard the instant your car has it? To encourage OnStar subscriptions? Because your car is secretly videotaping your profanity-laced reaction and posting it on YouTube?
Years ago, some company sent me a reader that plugs into a vehicle's onboard diagnostics (OBD-II) port, which the government has required since 1996. On a previous vehicle, which didn't have OnStar, I used the reader and Google to figure out I could fix a problem with a $4 can of brake cleaner and five minutes of work. Taking it to the dealer would have cost at least $100 and probably several hours.
Most people don't have an OBD-II reader, and many might not know how to use one if they did. But everyone knows how to look at their dashboard (I hope), and right now all they see there is a light that merely says "something" is wrong.
Maybe it's time automakers did "something" about that.


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County jail
New arrests
Cody Fistler, 22, Peabody, arrested Oct. 9 by Marion County Sheriff for failure to appear in court.
Billy Holcomb, 19, Hillsboro, accused of transporting alcohol in an open container, possession of drug paraphernalia, and possession of a controlled substance, arrested Oct. 7 by Marion Police Department.
Matthew Leach, 22, Ramona, accused of assault, arrested Oct. 9 by Marion County Sheriff.
Brianna Washington, 18, Peabody, accused of domestic battery, arrested Oct. 8 by Peabody Police Department.
Phillip White, 22, Manhattan, booked by Marion County Sheriff Oct. 12 for court commitment.
Gary Williams, 52, Marion, booked Oct. 11 by Marion County Sheriff for court commitment.
From previous weeks
Todd Beneke, 28, Marion, incarcerated since June 17.
Justin Brasher, 19, McPherson, Oct. 5.
Justin Caldwell, 28, Newton, Oct. 4.
Doug Gable, 51, Herington, June 11.
Steve Hundley, 47, Knoxville, Tenn., Aug. 23.
Calvin Maurer, 31, Hillsboro, Sept. 11.
Dallen Thompson, 18, Ramona, Sept. 26.
Ricci Welter, 44, Brewster, Sept. 25.
Last modified Oct. 18, 2012


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Poll: Huntsman and Paul Lose Ground to "Undecided" among N.H. GOP Voters
Likely New Hampshire Republican Primary voters may be reevaluating their support for Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, according to the latest Suffolk University/7News two-day tracking poll of likely voters in New Hampshire's GOP presidential primary.
Huntsman dropped three points, from 10 percent yesterday to 7 percent today. Paul dropped two points, from 16 percent to 14 percent, despite a third-place finish in Iowa last night. The poll showed Romney maintaining his lead with 43 percent of the vote, followed by Paul (14 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), Jon Huntsman (7 percent), while Rick Santorum (6 percent), fresh off an impressive Iowa Caucus second-place showing, managed to climb another point and is now within striking distance of third place.
Huntsman's three point drop was driven by self-identified moderates, where his support fell from 17 percent to 11 percent, while the undecided among the moderates swelled to 17 percent from 12 percent overnight. Paul's drop was primarily due to younger voters ages 18-34, where he dropped from 29 percent to 18 percent.
Despite the volatility of Huntsman, Paul, and undecided counts, Mitt Romney's 43 percent is the same level of support he has shown in the Granite state over the last three consecutive surveys by the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.
The percentage of voters remaining undecided has increased three points, to 16 percent, suggesting that voters are reevaluating the second tier of contenders.
"The decline of Huntsman and Paul vote counts are primarily responsible for the spike in the undecided count," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "This means that some voters who previously supported Huntsman and Paul are now undecided. While these voters may ultimately return to Huntsman and Paul, they may also be looking to reevaluate the field post-Iowa caucus to determine the maximum impact for their respective votes."
The Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston will release results of two-day tracking polls every day leading up to the New Hampshire Presidential Primary on Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2012.
The statewide survey includes two nights of 250 likely respondents for a two-day tracking total of 500 likely voters in New Hampshire's Republican Presidential Primary. This track was conducted Jan. 2 and Jan. 3 using live telephone interviews with landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at 7 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310. Paleologos is on site at the Manchester, N.H., media center located in the lobby of the Radisson Hotel, 700 Elm Street, Manchester through Jan. 10.


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Mask of Violence
Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, Jan 1, 1970 - Detective and mystery stories - 273 pages
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