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Publisher Larry Tobin's 11/1/05 column:
Normally I avoid religious matters like a plague since I believe those convictions are a personal matter and therefore private. Okay, so this week I'm going to tackle an issue that strikes somewhat on religion, that's hot, emotional and sometimes irrational, but I'm tired of some of the silly arguments and I can't keep from commenting on it any longer. It's the war between those who believe in evolution vs. those who proffer strict creationism. I won't get involved in any individual religions or beliefs but there are some general issues that only seem fair to me.
If people would only think about it rather than getting emotional, it's entirely possible that both sides of the issue could be right! Consider this:
Assume for the sake of argument, first of all, that all Christian and most other religions believe in one Creator. That the Creator is eternal is a given. That means He (She?) always has been and always will be. With that assumption established, the question becomes an issue of time.
Evolutionists believe that the world (and man) was created over millions of years. Creationists – and the Bible – argue that the world was created in six days.
Well, just how long is a day? To those of us here on Earth, a day is 24 hours – the time it takes for our planet to make one revolution on its journey around the sun. On any other planet, however, that revolution time will be longer or shorter. Are we really sure, I ask you creationists, whether those six days were in our time or Jupiter's, for example, since God reportedly created all of the planets? Maybe he used the days of a planet in some other galaxy or solar system? Might not the Creator's "day" be substantially different from ours?
Then we have to consider this thought: if the Creator always was and always will be, just how long is His day? A million years of His could easily be the mere blink of His eye. Just maybe the world was created in six days. It's just that the time frame was in the span of the Creator's day which might be eons in our time! There is nothing in the theory of evolution that denies the Creator's hand in it.
Next there's the issue of whether or not the Bible is a moral tool or a scientific volume. I suggest the former.
If someone today were to undertake a rewrite of the Bible, knowing what we know now of the world and the universe, and if he or she could go through a time warp back two thousand years or more, no one who might read the updated version would have the foggiest idea what was being talked about! The Earth revolving around the sun? Those people thought the Earth was not only the center of the universe, but that it was flat!
In fact, it was the religious community that was the last to accept those two universal realities. Still, the infusion of scientific discovery did nothing to deny the basic tenets of the Bible. Those facts are now as accepted as the dawn of a new morning (since we know that the sun doesn't really come up in the east).
I think people forget when the Bible was written and who it was written for. As I said earlier, people living a couple of thousand years ago couldn't begin to comprehend anything written in 2005. It would be like today trying to teach first graders scientific concepts involving nuclear fusion. They'd look at it and go, "Duh?" On an academic level, people living two thousand years ago are like those first graders. Humanity hadn't progressed yet to a level of comprehension that would allow them to understand evolution. Apparently a lot of us haven't even yet.
Mankind was given a brain that allows us to develop and grow and expand our knowledge of our world and universe. That is how we've managed to survive in it. After all, there are many creatures that are bigger and stronger and faster than we are that would have gladly had us for lunch if we hadn't managed to outwit them.
Remember the saying, "God helps those who help themselves"? Why do you think He gave us such a powerful brain? It certainly wasn't for us to sit around and wait for Him to do everything for us. If you look at the issues with reasonable objectivity, there is little in science that denies religion.
I suspect that there are liable to be many more discoveries in the future that may rock the religious world and yet in no way deny the existence of a Creator or His hand in the universe. For example, are we God's only intelligent creatures in the universe? Maybe, as one wag put it, we were His first try and, thinking He can do better, we're going to be erased and He'll start all over somewhere else.
My point is that science most often expands possibilities. I don't think the Creator meant for religion to do the opposite.
Ups N Downs
We encourage you to respond to our opinions. We will try to make an editorial or column available for discussion each week.
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Re: Ups N Downs
Do you want the scriptural basis for why the seven days of Genesis 1 are literal days? That is the crux of the matter when trying to resolve [macro-]evolution to Biblical creation.
I believe the quote, "God helps those who help themselves," is taken from "Poor Richard's Almanac" written by Benjamin Franklin. I don't think it made God's top 66. :p
[ November 06, 2005, 12:50 PM: Message edited by: Tomahawk Computing & Electronics ]
I believe the quote, "God helps those who help themselves," is taken from "Poor Richard's Almanac" written by Benjamin Franklin. I don't think it made God's top 66. :p
[ November 06, 2005, 12:50 PM: Message edited by: Tomahawk Computing & Electronics ]
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Re: Ups N Downs
It is true that the Bible is not a science book, in that it does not deliberately lay out a series of findings with the intent of advancing an understanding of Mechanism. This is the only endeavor our hard science is capable of.
This makes it no less a book about facts.
These facts are primarily Theological ones about the God of Israel.
Since this God chose to interact with our time & space, these facts are, also, historical, geographical and, therefore, mechanical in nature.
Though not written with that specific intent, these stated facts remain a reliable resource regarding historical phenomena.
This makes it no less a book about facts.
These facts are primarily Theological ones about the God of Israel.
Since this God chose to interact with our time & space, these facts are, also, historical, geographical and, therefore, mechanical in nature.
Though not written with that specific intent, these stated facts remain a reliable resource regarding historical phenomena.
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By Jim Acosta, CNN National Political Correspondent
Washington (CNN) -- The newly sworn-in 113th Congress is the most diverse group of representatives in history, reflecting changing demographics and changing public attitudes.
98 women, 43 African-Americans, 31 Latinos, 12 Asian-American and Pacific Islanders, and seven gay and bisexual members are now new members of the House and Senate. Plus, there is the first Buddhist member in the Senate and Hindu member in the House of Representatives.
"It means that we reflect America more," said newly elected Rep. Tammy Duckwork, an Illinois Democrat. "And it is good to see Congress starting to look more like the rest of America."
Duckworth, a double-amputee veteran of the Iraq War, is one of the historic number of Asian-Americans elected and joins the record number of women inducted, along with new Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
"Here is the first woman from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts," Warren said to cheers from her supporters.
And the new members are not the only ones making history. Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski will serve as the first female chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and Nancy Pelosi has returned to her role as that chamber's Democratic leader.
But the diversity is not exclusive to the Democrats.
Republican Tim Scott became the first African-American from the South to serve in the Senate since Reconstruction, and Ted Cruz, who is Cuban-American, was elected to the Senate. Both were supported by the Tea Party.
"It is an incredible day and a testament to the power of the grass roots and the power of the people," Cruz told CNN.
There is also more representation of the gay and lesbian community in the Congress.
Democrat Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin was sworn-in as the first openly gay U.S. Senator. On the other side of the Capitol, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) is the first openly bi-sexual member of the House.

subset: commoncrawl


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There's no rest for the weary when it comes to Fashion Week (which, between London, Milan and Paris becomes more like Fashion Month). After some stellar shows in London last week (like Burberry and Rag & Bone), this past weekend was packed with heavy hitters in Milan. Check out videos of some of the best Spring/Summer 2014 shows below. [Above: Neil Barrett, via Bruce Pask's Instagram.]
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Jil Sander.
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John Varvatos.
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Neil Barrett.
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[Designed by Thom Browne]


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About St.Robert
Our Mission Statement We, the people of St. Robert Congregation, a Roman Catholic Faith Community, respond to God's call by:
We pledge to contribute our time, talent, and treasure for the spiritual and financial wellbeing of our Parish and the broader community.
Enjoy this glimpse of our parish in pictures.Our Parish History —compiled by Parish Historian Margaret Sankovitz St. Robert of Newminster Parish was incorporated in 1912. The first Mass was celebrated in a small wooden building hastily constructed on the south side of Mineral Spring Rd. (Capitol Dr.) on July 6, 1913. A permanent church/school building was erected by October, 1913, and the wooden church was razed.
St. Robert School was opened in September, 1915, with four grades on the second floor of the church/school building. From 1915 until 2002, it was staffed by Dominican Sisters of Sinsinawa, Wisconsin. The church/school building was added to in 1927, and again in 1958.
In 1937, the current St. Robert Church, a Milwaukee County Landmark and outstanding example of Lombardy Romanesque architecture, was erected, at which time the church space in the school became school space.
Msgr. Farrel P. Reilly was the founding pastor and served until his death in 1958. There have been six succeeding pastors: Rev. Gerald E. McGinnity, Msgr. Frank M. Schneider, Msgr. Harold O. Prudell, Rev. Richard J. Cerpich, Rev. John J. Pulice, and Rev. Dennis A. Dirkx. Our Patron Saint —compiled by Parish Historian Margaret Sankovitz Although little is known of his youth, the accomplishments of St. Robert are well recorded following his ordination to the priesthood. After serving as a rector in Yorkshire for a time, Robert joined a group of Benedictine monks in 1132 at St. MaryAbbey, York, England. In that year, the monks built the famous Fountains Abbey in a valley called Sheldale, within the town of Sutton. The abbey was so called because of the springs found on the property.
They soon became affiliated with the Cistercian reform which had been introduced by St. Bernard, Cistercian Abbot of Clairvaux. Robert of York was a close friend of Bernard. In 1137, Robert of York was sent to be abbot of a new monastery at Morpeth—Newminster Abbey—and Robert of York became Robert of Newminster.
Robert ruled and directed the monks at Newminster for 21 years. He was a man of prayer, favored with gifts of prophecy and miracles. He died on June 7, 1159, and is buried at Newminster Abbey. His tomb became a pilgrimage for many who sought his help. The numbers of pilgrims became so great that his body was moved from the chapter house to the choir of the church and reinterred in front of the high altar. A shrine was erected over his grave. During the reformation in England, the Abbey was abandoned and now lies in ruins.
St. Robert's Fair is held each year on or near the feast of Robert of Newminster.
Photo credits of the Abbey in England: Chris Grazer.
copyright © 2007 St. Robert Catholic Church & School, 4019 N. Farwell Ave., Shorewood, WI 53211 Phone (414) 332-1164, Fax (414)332-2599
Design by Stream Creative • Powered by Frogneck


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text:
Where the Rubber Meets the Road: The Security Control Framework
When Cisco introduced the Cisco SecureX Architecture at the 2011 RSA Conference in San Francisco, it aimed to provide network security practitioners the following benefits of a security architecture:
- Contextual awareness
- Comprehensive visibility
- Scalable control
- Dynamic adaptability to new threats
- Data and application protection
What exactly does this mean? What does it do? How is it implemented? Which products are needed to achieve the benefits of a Cisco SecureX Architecture?
These are just some of the questions we hear when consulting with people tasked with the protection of an organization's information and providing appropriate security controls around current and/or new business initiatives.
Around business initiatives, joint research conducted by IBM developerWorks and the IBM Center for Applied Insights has reported four information technologies (mobile technology, business analytics, cloud computing, and social business) that are rapidly reshaping how enterprises operate. This joint research has been published in the 2012 IBM Tech Trends report and security has been identified as a threat to innovation and a top barrier to adopting business-critical technology.
"Mobile technology, business analytics, cloud computing, and social business are rewriting strategic playbooks across industries. In these spaces, new business possibilities are emerging faster than many organizations can act on them, with significant IT skill shortages and security concerns threatening progress. Yet, some companies are equipped to innovate at the front edges of these fast-moving technology trends and drive strategic advantages for their organizations." – 2012 IBM Tech Trends pdf
With that introduction of how security relates to business innovation, the aim of this blog post is to raise awareness that the Cisco SecureX architecture is beyond marketing and that in the background, Cisco and our partners are developing products, technology, services, and learning curricula—to help practitioners deploy cyber security architectures using models such as the Cisco Security Control Framework—so that a security architectural blueprint can be in place to allow organizations to have the confidence and agility to accelerate business transformation.
"The Cisco Security Control Framework model is the application of foundational security principles to define the guidelines and rules for achieving a secure infrastructure. The security architecture does not define how to build or implement a secure infrastructure, but instead defines the properties, capabilities, processes, and controls that a secure infrastructure must possess to protect against a range of threats." – Cisco Security Control Framework (SCF) Model pdf
The two principles that govern the Security Control Framework are Total Visibility and Complete Control.
In October 2012, Cisco hosted our 15th Annual Cisco CIO Summit in Dana Point, California. The theme of this year's event was "Redefining What's Possible." Speeches and breakout sessions reflected some of the major issues on the minds of CIOs today: How can they use new technology, such as cloud, mobile, and social, to create possibilities for their organizations and companies? A topic that received attention was Security. Discussions centered around tools available to protect data and the latest trends in protecting data on mobile devices. Customers are asking for a distributed model/view of the security. Who are you? What do you see? Where are you coming from? Where can you go? What do you do?
These questions relate to identification (of an end-user, of a network-device, of an application, of access-control) and offer an opportunity to utilize a pillar of the Security Control Framework for expansion—Identity—to show how Cisco and partner products, technologies, services, and training offerings support the Identification element of the framework.
Identify the state of trust of users, devices, and traffic flows:
- Defines the ability of a system to identify entities accessing a given resource and determine a trust level or state of trust.
This may include traffic entering and/or leaving an area of the network.
The trust level may be established through the inspection of credentials or through other means. Usually trust is established through mechanisms other than an IP address.
I would encourage you to engage with your Cisco Account Teams and/or Cisco Partners to review the Cisco Security Framework Model in the context of your environment. This includes the following aspects, which are merely a few of the factors that will be taken into consideration:
- Business
- Compute
- Network
- Storage
- Security
- Geopolitical
Cisco Professional Services:
- Cisco Security Architecture Assessment Service
- Cisco Hosted Identity Services Engine – Calendar Year 2013 Launch
- Cisco Managed Threat Defense Service – Calendar Year 2013 Launch
Cisco Technologies and Identification Tools:
- Cisco IOS NetFlow
- Cisco ASR 1000 Series Network Security Features
- Cisco Application Visibility and Control
- Cisco Prime Network Analysis Module
- Cisco Prime Assurance Manager
- Cisco NetFlow Generation Appliance
- Cisco Nexus 1000V Virtual Switches
- Cisco Prime Analytics – Calendar Year 2013 Launch
Sample Cisco Partner Solutions:
Cisco Training for Security Practitioners:
- Cisco Design Zone for Security
- Cisco Network Security Training
- Cisco Web and Email Security Training
- Cisco Press Security Books
- The Cisco Learning Network
Sample Industry Training for Security Practitioners:
Cisco Products and Acronyms:
AnyConnect – Cisco AnyConnect Secure Mobility Client
ASA-CX – Cisco Context-Aware Adaptive Security Appliance
CWS – Cisco Cloud Web Security
CSR – Cisco Cloud Services Router 1000V
WSA – Cisco Web Security Appliance
SGT – Cisco Security Group Tags -Cisco TrustSec Innovation
Nexus 1000V – Cisco Nexus 1000V Series Switches
ISR – Cisco Integrated Services Routers
ASR – Cisco Aggregation Services Routers
IPS – Cisco Intrusion Prevention System
WIPS – Cisco Adaptive Wireless Intrusion Prevention System
ESA – Cisco Email Security Appliance
ASA-V – Cisco Virtual Adaptive Security Appliance
ISE – Cisco Identity Services Engine
ASA-X – Cisco Adaptive Security Appliances
In an effort to keep conversations fresh, Cisco Blogs closes comments after 60 days. Please visit the Cisco Blogs hub page for the latest content.


text:
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Data protection requires more than a single solution. We take a comprehensive view that blends innovation and expertise in work processes.


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Jesus Rebukes Peter
Evangelicals often stress that Jesus has died for our sins, but it can be easy to forget that He was also raised for our sins. As we share the Gospel, let us remember to present the truth of the resurrection ...Read More
Peter, the Rock
When we study Scripture, we should be careful not to let the excesses of opposing positions unduly influence our own applications of the text. All the teachings of those with whom we disagree may not necessarily be wrong, and we ...Read More


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4 Drawer Wellington Chest (Isabella)
Product Code: QPLB40P
Availability: Please call for availability
Check in store for prices
Need a bit more storage in your bedroom? Look no further than our Isabella wellington chest.
Create a warm and comfortable feel to your home with our Isabella collection. Whilst employing the best techniques to create solid drawers, dovetailed joints and tongue and groove backs, the Isabella range incorporates valued features such as solid oak tops, a solid pine carcass and a deep lasting painted finish throughout. Featuring modern silver coloured cup handles and knobs, this appealing furniture collection is completed with a sculptured top and plinth.
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The City of Lakewood's Economic Development Division is your resource for understanding and navigating our real estate market, opportunities, and our development process. When you need to know what is in the development and new business pipeline, give us a call and we can share all of the exciting investment happening here.
In this section we've compiled information on Lakewood's:
Lakewood's commercial real estate sector comprises approximately 23 million square feet, primarily located in several major employment centers, commercial corridors and major retail areas. Each of these areas has their own distinct characteristics and opportunities. While new investment and growth in Lakewood will primarily come from infill there are large greenfield sites on the west side of the City boundary.
Contact Lakewood's Economic Development Division to discuss information contained in this section.


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Kitano Takeshi
British Film Institute, 2007 - Performing Arts - 264 pages
The award-winning art film "Hana-Bi, "the stoic gangster elegy "Sonatine, "the surfer romance "A Scene at the Sea, "the absurdist comedy "Getting Any?, "the entertainment samurai spectacle "Zatoichi"--very different films made under one name, Kitano Takeshi. Who is Kitano Takeshi?--an artistic auteur in the traditional sense or a new kind of star who manages multiple identities, strategically changing them from film to film and situation to situation? This book explores issues of auteurship and stardom in the films of Kitano Takeshi, especially as they relate to problems of personal and national identity in a Japan confronting an age of globalization. Aaron Gerow combines a detailed account of Japanese film and criticism with unique close analyses of Kitano's films from "Violent Cop "to "Takeshis. "
From inside the book
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Abe Kasho Abe Kazushige actors aesthetic Aoyama argues Asakusa audience auteur auteurist Azuma beach Beat Takeshi become Blto Takeshi Boiling Point boke Brother bunraku camera characters colour comedian comedy criticised critics critique culture death director Dolls editing emphasised film-making film's foreign frame gags gangster gaze genre Hana-Bi Haruna Hasumi Hiroshi Horibe humour identity instance Japan Japanese film jidaigeki junpo kantoku Kids Return Kikujiro Kinemajunpo Kitano Takeshi Kitano's films lack look manzai Masaki Masao Masaru Matsumoto Mori Masayuki movie Murakawa narration narrative nation Nihon Nishi Nukui offers Office Kitano official pamphlet Okinawa performance political postwar production renders Sawako scene script shift Shigeru shinbun Shinji Shinozaki Shobo shows Sonatine spectator star story structure style Takako Takeshi 0 korosu Takeshi Kitano Takeshi Tokyo tarento television Terajima Susumu Tony Rayns tsukkomi Uehara undermine viewers violence Violent Cop yakuza yakuza film Yamamoto Yamane Sadao Zatoichi


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Little micro strobe batch!
Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:07 PM
Canon 7d, Nauticam, Lots of glass, Olympus OMD-EM5, Nauticam, 60 macro, 45 macro, 8 mm fisheye, Inon, S&S, Athena Strobes plus lots of fiddly bits.
Posted 12 January 2013 - 05:34 AM
Edited by Timmoranuk, 12 January 2013 - 09:01 AM.
- owfotograaf likes this
· INON Z-240s & Sea & Sea YS-250 Pros
· SmallHD DP4 monitor & NA-DP4. Fisheye Aquavolt 3500s & 7000s
· Zen DP-100, DP-200 & DP-230
Posted 08 February 2013 - 01:29 AM
reason y I want to use it on OM-D >
1. to save the battery life
2. the "x-sync" speed is capped at 250 when the original housing is used.
3. maybe able to do more FPS
Posted 08 February 2013 - 04:34 PM
Canon 7d, Nauticam, Lots of glass, Olympus OMD-EM5, Nauticam, 60 macro, 45 macro, 8 mm fisheye, Inon, S&S, Athena Strobes plus lots of fiddly bits.
Posted 21 March 2013 - 03:28 PM
Now that Hedwig is no longer producing his micro strobe, does anyone know of any alternative unit?
Thanks. Pete
Posted 24 March 2013 - 03:39 PM
Hi. Does anyone know of any alternative to Hedwig's device, as he is no longer making them? I'm currently experimenting with some broken compact cameras and am currently disassembling some disposable cameras, but it would be nice to know if someone has already been roun d this loop.
Posted 25 March 2013 - 03:45 AM
Hi Pete,
I can make you one, please send me a pm if interested. I fly back to Lembeh in the morning, can send you pictures when you get back.
Nauticam Rossa / GH4 / 7Dmk2 / 1Dx
www.nad-lembeh.com: 2:1 diveguide ratio in an photographer owned / operated resort
Posted 01 April 2013 - 01:18 PM
Sent you a PM....did it arrive? There may have been a nut loose behind the keyboard this end......
Thanks. Pete
Posted 25 April 2013 - 11:06 PM
This is my little project for use on my 5D3 in Nauticam housing. I'm using Z240 so works perfectly.
Posted 26 April 2013 - 03:44 AM
This is my little project for use on my 5D3 in Nauticam housing. I'm using Z240 so works perfectly.
Do you have more info? Components? Schema? More photos?
Olympus OMD E-M1, Naticam housing, 2x S&S D1, Oly 60mm , 12-50mm & 12-40mm, Pana 8mm & 7-14mm
Posted 27 April 2013 - 12:40 AM
Hi Yako, You can refer to this post "Diy Led underwater flash strobe" in another section, there is circuit diagram. I twisted it by referring to some strobe circuit I found on Internet. Just a few components as you can see from the picture, plus a MOSFET.
Enjoy your DIY project.
Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:11 AM
Hi Eddcar.
Many thanks for your replies. More food for thought! I'll post more if I get anywhere!
Thanks. Pete
Posted 07 June 2013 - 02:07 PM
Just thought you might be interested in progress.
I was given 2 strobe triggers - one of Hedwig's creations, and another from Glowdive. The Glowdive one used the circuit that you pointed out, including the MOSFET, powered by a small 12v battery and with 4 LEDs (I think in series). I chose to use the Glowdive one, as my Hugyfot housing uses the hot shoe fitting to hold the pressure check system lights. I rebuilt the whole thing, and it now has several modules connected by computer plugs. The main circuit board and the battery holders sit at each end of the camera tray; the hot shoe wiring now has a break plug in it to connect it to the new circuit. Most importantly the LEDs are mounted on a plate positioned directy underneath the fibre optic bulkhead fitting.
It all now works a treat, and I'm about to build a neater version. If you're interested, I put some pictures up.
Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:54 PM
Hi Pete, I am definitely interested! I have an Olympus e-PL5, with a theoretical sync speed of ~1/400, which gets wasted with the built in flash. Now I am looking for a really fast-response solution.
Do you know the response time of your version? I haven't seen the Glowdive unit on their website, is it still on the market?
Edited by tamas970, 18 June 2013 - 10:55 PM.
Posted 19 June 2013 - 11:50 AM
Hi tamas970.
I think I recall reading that the MOSFET has a response time of about 1/1000 sec, and the LED responds quickly too. My D90 will only sync properly at 1/200, though at 1/400 it will still pick up the flash fine....you just see the shutter cutting off part of the image as well!
I never found any reference to the Glowdive unit on the web either. Judging by the quality of manufacture, I suspect it was a prototype unit send out for trial to a supplier. The guy who gave (loaned?) the unit to me did so because he could not make it work....though I suspect that may have had something to do with the alignment of the LEDs. So, I doubt if Glowdive ever put it into production. This mirrors Triggerfish's experience - Hedwig said many people could not make his unit work so he stopped making them. However, I am told by someone in the know that Nauticam are now making a flash trigger (though I can't find it on their website yet.) Best place to start with that would be UW Visions in the UK.
If you are still interested, I can certainly make you one. We would need to work out how to make the LEDs fire straight into the F/O bulkhead connector, so I'd need to know the relative positions of the camera hot shoe and the bulkhead connector itself. Which housing are you using?
Regards. Pete
Posted 19 June 2013 - 11:36 PM
Hi Pete,
I have a 10bar housing for E-PL5:
Space for the microflash: max 15mm height, max 35x35mm with& length.
Position of the window: ~35mm above the hotshoe level (yes, you cannot fit the
camera with open flash)
The camera itself gives a very nice sync (<5% banding loss at 1/400), I would like to keep that. Maybe a fast switching Mosfet would be a good idea.
Edited by tamas970, 20 June 2013 - 12:20 AM.
Posted 24 June 2013 - 06:17 AM
The first batch is sold and .... i am not gone make a new batch.
Because there are housing brands and types where they don't fit in and it is not easy to aim the leds into the fibers.
Also the Sea&Sea strobes sensor is not always in the middle off the fiber ... resulting in not enough light for the strobe to trigger.
greets, Hedwig.
I am making them again but only on demand ... and you know the existing problems that stay the same
There is no way with the current batterys to pull up the power of the leds. I have tested a 1W led with a large battery ...and this works fine with all strobes.
But there is no place to use larger batterys. (
greetings, Hedwig.
Posted 24 June 2013 - 06:36 AM
Hedwig, can you maybe supply a longer power cable with the large battery so users can wire the battery somewhere else on the housing?
SLS Photography, when your images matter....
Aquatica, Big Blue, Ultramax & FIT Dealer
Philippine Dive Trip Specialist
Posted 24 June 2013 - 08:23 AM
I am making them again but only on demand ... and you know the existing problems that stay the same
There is no way with the current batterys to pull up the power of the leds. I have tested a 1W led with a large battery ...and this works fine with all strobes.
But there is no place to use larger batterys. (
greetings, Hedwig.
Ouch, I just bought almost all bits and pieces for a project, I am going with a 1W IR LED. If you've had posted an hour earlier... Have you changed the other components? (MOSFET, resistors) Which battery did you choose? I might fit 2 CR2's in my 10bar housing...
Do you mind sharing the layout of your version?
Edited by tamas970, 24 June 2013 - 09:55 PM.
Posted 24 June 2013 - 10:53 AM
Sorry for the delay in replying - been away for a few days.
The example of Hedwig's unit that I have seen was nice - much more sophisticated than the MOSFET version. I did make it work by firing the LED directly into the fibre optic bulkhead connector, but did not fit it to the camera as it mounts on the hot shoe....and mine is already used by the camera pressure lead detector.
The MOSFET circuit I am using has 2 x 12V LR23 batteries in parallel, with the 4 high power LEDs mounted in series. Hedwig uses 2 CR button cells of 3V each, and his LEDs appear to be in parallel.
Herewith pictures of my version. One shows the batteries and circuitry mounted under the camera tray, the other shows the hot shoe connector with the wiring break for the flash, and you can see the 4 LEDs mounted on a board directly under the bulkhead connector. Units are connected with computer plugs. Wiring is rather untidy - I will make another one when I have a minute and tidy things up.
Ah, the photos failed. I will try again.


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Guidolin: Udinese not favourites to reach final
Francesco Guidolin believes Udinese have only a 'slight advantage' over Fiorentina as they aim for their maiden Coppa Italia final's appearance.
Udinese lead their two-legged semi-final against Fiorentina 2-1 ahead of Tuesday's second leg in Florence but Guidolin has rubbished suggestions his team are 'favourites' to reach the Italian cup final.
The head coach of Udinese has ignored his side's recent dominance of Fiorentina - they have won their past three meetings with the men in purple - and has instead focused on where Vincenzo Montella's team are in the Serie A; fourth after 23 rounds.
"No, we are not the favourites because it's a 180-minute game and we only have a slight advantage after the first leg," Guidolin said on Monday.
"Furthermore, we are going to play at one of the top four Italian teams at the moment.
"Last year, Fiorentina did very well and in this season are doing even better. I am not saying we are long shots but we are not the favourites at the same time."
Since the Coppa Italia began in 1922, Udinese have never reached the final, while Fiorentina have a much stronger pedigree in the competition with six titles from nine appearances in the deciding match.
Udinese will enter the second leg at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on the back of a 3-0 win over Chievo on the weekend, while Fiorentina defeated Atalanta 2-0.
Montella has not been duped by Guidolin's claims and has warned his team to be careful when they take on a side that has already eliminated Inter and Milan in the Coppa Italia.
"Let's not get fooled, Udinese are able to adapt and ready to hurt us," Montella said.
"They know how to wait for the perfect chance, playing deep with high level organisation. Well, it's a semi-final, therefore it's a hard game."


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Dropbox config change from the CLI
I use Dropbox on my MacBook. It's neat. However for some reason it's not really autodetecting my proxy, which completely set up via a master proxy.pac file.
I have already a shell script that takes care of adjusting my SSH configuration and my custom proxy.pac depending on where I am. So I just extended it to change Dropbox's configuration and restart it. Here's the gist of it:


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These DVDs are about 90 to 120 minutes long. They are compilations DVDs.
Meaning they are selections of scenes that fit the description of the title.
They are good DVDs for the price.. If you are looking for higher quality DVDs try their premium brands like Reality Junkies, Sweet Sinner and Sweetheart Video they can be found under "Studios" from the DVD menu.


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It's no secret that I am a TMZ watching, Us Weekly reading, pop culture fanatic. There is good reason why I'm not alone in this thinking. Whether it's the chic and brilliant Johnny Depps and Meryl Streeps of the world, or the not-quite-sure-why-they-are-famous Kim Kardasians and Heidi Montags, the fascination is due to the fact that these people are beautiful, wealthy, and – at least in some cases – talented. The constant swarm of salacious gossip doesn't hurt either.
But lately, we've seen a new breed of celebrity: digital business leaders.


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2016 Acura RDX, located at Acura of Wichita. Original MSRP $40,045. Crystal Black Pearl, Ebony interior. This 1-owner RDX is equipped with Blind spot sensors, Rearview camera, Bluetooth, Heated front seats, and SiriusXM radio. (subscription required)
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† Based on 2016 EPA mileage ratings. Use for comparison purposes only. Your actual mileage will vary depending on how you drive and maintain your vehicle.
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2013 New York Philharmonic musicians to perform family concert at WCSU
DANBURY, CONN. — An event to benefit Healing Newtown, a project created by the Newtown Cultural Arts Commission and supported by the Cultural Alliance of Western Connecticut and the Connecticut Office of the Arts, will feature musicians from the New York Philharmonic in a performance at Western Connecticut State University on Saturday, March 9, 2013. The event will feature an afternoon of music, games and stories, beginning at 2 p.m. in Ives Concert Hall in White Hall on the WCSU Midtown campus, 181 White St. in Danbury. Tickets will be $5 for children and $10 for adults, and can be purchased at www.wcsu.edu/tickets or by calling (203) 837-TIXX. Donations also will be accepted to benefit Healing Newtown's efforts to promote healing through the power of the arts.
Theodore Wiprud, vice president of education and the Sue B. Mercy Chair for the New York Philharmonic, said, "Musicians from the New York Philharmonic will perform selections from its popular series of Very Young People's Concerts, expanded to appeal to all ages. The event will include opportunities to interact directly with the musicians, as well as a concert full of great music, audience interaction, and an illustrated story of Philippe the Penguin."
The event will begin at 2 p.m. with "Fun with the Philharmonic," during which children can join a musician for musical games. At 3 p.m., the concert will feature works by Bizet, Mozart, Britten and more. Concert-goers can experience "Hands-On Fun" at 3:45 by trying a string instrument. Philharmonic musicians and participants will include Philharmonic Associate Principal Viola Rebecca Young, as host; Anna Rabinova and Fiona Simon, on violin; Judith Nelson, on viola; Qiang Tu, on cello; Satoshi Okamoto, on bass; Dorian Rence, writer and narrator; with production design by Marion Schoevaert.
Lisa Scails, executive director of the Cultural Alliance of Western Connecticut, said, "The arts have an enormous ability to heal. We are humbled and appreciate the generous support by these incredible musicians to provide an afternoon of music and interactive activities for children."
Western Connecticut State University offers outstanding faculty in a range of quality academic programs. Our diverse university community provides students an enriching and supportive environment that takes advantage of the unique cultural offerings of Western Connecticut and New York. Our vision: To be an affordable public university with the characteristics of New England's best small private universities.


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A LONELY Green Apple is found in a bunch of baskets which wants to escape from the bunch. Lay a TRAP by tapping on each basket which locks the exit root of the apple.
1. You can UNDO the previous move so that you get a chance to trap the apple.
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This game is highly recommended to all game fans , just sit back and trap the LONELY Green Apple.


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Seeing video of the Phillie Phanatic take a foul ball to the face reminded tipster Kevin G. of when he saw "Buddy Bat" of Louisville Bats mascottery fame feel the wrath of a wild warm-up pitch to tha dome a few weeks back. To wit:
He just got done throwing shirts into the stands during the 7th inning stretch when he found himself at the wrong place at the wrong time. Notice the ball goes into the mask, and does not come out. Also, the catcher's reaction is great as he has no idea where the ball is. The person in the suit broke his nose and blood was all over the inside of the mask.
Sad mascot.
A gem of a diamond - One day in the life of Louisville Slugger Field [Courier-Journal]
Being Buddy Bat [Metromix Louisville]


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S. Larry Schlesinger, MD, F.A.C.S.
Dr. Schlesingers Curriculum Vitae
S. Larry Schlesinger, MD, F.A.C.S. is a board certified plastic surgeon with more than 30 years of plastic surgery experience in Hawaii. He has performed more than 20,000 plastic surgery procedures
A native of Detroit, Dr. Schlesinger took his premedical studies at the University of Michigan and medical studies at the Medical College of Virginia, where he was the highest honor graduate. He served his surgical residency at Stanford University Medical Center and his plastic surgery residence at Oklahoma Health Science Center, where he is a visiting professor of surgery.
Dr. Schlesinger is a member of the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, a group of the most dedicated board certified surgeons specializing in cosmetic surgery.
Dr. Schlesinger is also a Diplomat of the American Board of Plastic Surgery, a Fellow of the American College of Surgeons and an Active Member of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS), of which he currently serves on its Committee on Physicians Health. To be an active member of ASPS, Dr. Schlesinger had to have completed four years of medical school, three years of clinical training in general surgery, a residency of at least two years in an accredited plastic surgery hospital program, taken and passed intensive board exams, and have passed the scrutiny of his peers.
In 2000, Dr. Schlesinger received the Hawaii Medical Associations Physician of the Year for Community Service for the State of Hawaii.
Dr. Schlesinger has made scores of scientific presentations to the Plastic Surgery community and published numerous articles on techniques and procedures of cosmetic plastic surgery.


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Max B & French Dissing Jim Jones "Ya Niggas Lip Singing, Stealing My Songs"
Max B & French Getting At Jim Jones
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Some Thoughts on Baseball
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
AJ Burnett and Marco Scutaro Continue to Help the Blue Jays
A. J. Burnett and Marco Scutaro are two players that the Blue Jays desperately tried to re-sign but they ultimately went on to leave the team as free agents; Burnett after the 2008 season and Scutaro after the 2009 season. While both players have gone on to have some ups and downs in the following years and neither stayed with their new organizations for the entire length of the contracts they signed, the real benefit to the Blue Jays was the draft pick compensation they received in return for losing both players.
For losing A.J. Burnett the Blue Jays received a 1st round supplemental pick and New York's 3rd round draft choice in the 2009 first year player draft. With these picks they selected James Paxton as the supplemental pick and Jake Marisnick with NY's 3rd round pick. Unfortunately they were unable to sign Paxton and therefore received a similar supplemental round draft pick in the 2010 draft which they used to select Noah Syndergaard.
For losing Marco Scutaro the Blue Jays received a 1st round supplemental pick and Boston's 2nd round draft choice in the 2010 first year player draft. With these picks the Blue Jays selected Aaron Sanchez and Justin Nicolino.
Therefore to summarize, for the loss of Burnett and Scutaro as free agents the Blue Jays received draft pick compensation that resulted in the following players:
1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Jake Marisnick
3. Aaron Sanchez
4. Justin Nicolino
For those of you not familiar with the Jays minor league system, Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino all pitched for Class A Lansing in 2012 and may be the teams top three pitching prospects as they have combined to record 22 wins against 10 losses over 268 innings pitched with 288 strike outs, a 2.65 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. After watching Syndergaard and Sanchez pitch this season Pat Hentgen, who is now a special assistant in the Blue Jays organization, compared the two pitchers to Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. The trio have also recently been featured here in a Toronto Star article.
Jake Marisnick who was recently promoted to double A New Hampshire is a top center field prospect who Baseball America recently listed as the 37th best prospect in baseball and one spot ahead of the Blue Jays Anthony Gose.
As it turns out the failure to sign A.J. Burnett and Marco Scutaro could be one of the best things to happen to the Blue Jays and may continue to pay dividends for team over the next decade.
Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images
Monday, June 25, 2012
Looking Back at the 2002 "Moneyball" Draft
I have to admit I'm fascinated with the major league baseball draft as there is nothing else like it in professional sports. Essentially general managers are drafting players that they hope will help the team in three, four or five years down the road. It's no wonder that major league rules don't allow for the trading of draft picks when 90% of GM's will never see the players they draft have any kind of success while still employed for that team (I totally made up the 90% number but you get my point).
I think my fascination with the draft is a direct result of J.P. Ricciardi's tenure as general manager of the Blue Jays. When he was hired he came with a pedigree of being an expert talent evaluator and his true strength was to be shown in his drafts. I bought into this hype immediately and after his first draft I couldn't wait for the Russ Adams era to begin.
Looking back now the draft was actually a major weakness of Ricciardi's, and it was very strategic of him to paint this kind of a picture of his skills set as it sometimes takes a decade for us to find out if he's telling the truth. Then again, it's not a lie if he knows the truth. It's also one of the reasons I'm hesitant to praise Alex Anthopoulos for his work at rebuilding the minor league system. How the hell do I know if any of the guys in the Jays minor league system will be any good five years from now? I've heard this story before and it didn't work out to well, and guess what, the boy wonders first 1st round draft pick Deck McGuire is already looking like a bust. In all fairness to Anthopoulos, his approach of preaching patience while building from within and through trades is probably the right one, but it requires a leap of faith from fans and there are no guarantees of success.
This brings me to the 2002 "Moneyball" draft made famous by Micheal Lewis and the Oakland Athletics. I was probably a little biased going into reading the book Moneyball because at the time I was just learning about OPS as a dedicated reader of Rob Neyer's column at ESPN, back when he wasn't behind a paywall, and loving it. But after I finished the book I was even more convinced that Billy Beane was smarter than any other GM in the sport, and possibly all of sports. It all made perfect sense to me and finally someone had figured out the "mlb draft".
Now that it is a decade later and moneyball is officially dead we should be able to look back at the 2002 draft and be able to clearly state whether or not it was a success for Billy Beane and the Oakland A's. However, today I read this column written by Dustin Parkes over at Getting Blanked who disagrees with Jon Paul Morosi who wrote this column which declared that "History has judge it (Oakland's 2002 draft) a failure". On the surface this didn't make much sense to me because they did draft Nick Swisher that year who has had a pretty damn good career, I wish Ricciardi had that kind of lack of success at the draft more often. This inspired me to take a closer look at the famous moneyball draft.
Thanks to Baseball Reference and their easy access historical draft information it's actually pretty simple to go back and look at the complete Oakland Athletics 2002 draft or any other team's draft in any other year for that matter. After looking at the Oakland draft, which appeared decent to me, I decided to do a little comparative research and calculate the cumulative Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to date of the players drafted for every team in the 2002 rule four draft. What I found was that the cumulative WAR for the Oakland Athletics (51.1) was actually the best in baseball that season, refer to Table 1 below for the breakdown of the cumulative WAR by team of the players drafted in 2002.
Table 1 - Cumulative WAR by Team of the 2002 Draft
|Red Sox
|White Sox
|Blue Jays
I guess this is what they call revisionist history? Not only was the moneyball draft a success for Billy Beane and the Oakland A's, it was the most successful draft of any team in baseball that season and by a significant margin. It also confirmed my beliefs that J.P. Ricciardi had no idea what he was doing when it came to the draft.
To be fair, some of the success Oakland had from this draft was the result of taking a late round pick named Jonathon Papelbon (16.2 WAR) who they were unable to sign. However, if you removed him from the equation, you would also have to remove others that didn't sign, such as Hunter Pence (17.7 WAR) taken by the Brewers and Jacoby Ellsbury (13.7 WAR) taken by the Rays, and the A's would still finish in the top 3 teams for value of players taken that signed with their team. Also, I feel removing these players would be taking away credit for a system that identified great talent, therefore I officially declare the A's winners of the 2002 draft!
Some other interesting facts that came up while doing my 2002 draft research included:
- The Boston Red Sox selected one Ricky Romero in the 37th round of the draft (Thank God he didn't sign, although would that have meant that Tulo would now be with the Jays?)
- The Royals should have walked away from the draft after their first selection of Donald Greinke, better known as Zach, who has since gone on to put up a total 29.2 career WAR. Meanwhile the rest of the Royals picks that year have amounted to a combined -4.4 WAR.
- The 2002 cumulative value of the total players selected is equivalent to a WAR of 571.3, or an average WAR of 19 per team.
- The value of first round of the draft was equivalent to a WAR of 220.5, or almost 40% of the total value of the draft.
- The three most valuable players of the 2002 draft were Zack Greinke taken 6th overall (29.2 WAR), Matt Cain taken 25th overall (28.6 WAR) and Cole Hamels taken 17th overall (25.7 WAR).
photo courtesy of W.W. Norton & Company Inc
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
State of the Nation
Image courtesy of the Toronto Star
I've said all along that this season for the Blue Jays was a year to figure out 'what they really had' since there were so many question marks at multiple positions. Sure everything could have perfectly fell into place, but it was unlikely. Sure the season is still young, however nothing this team has done so far has changed my opinion of my expectations for the season.
That being said it appears that a lot of the answers for the initial questions regarding this team are becoming clearer and the Jays should have a better understanding of what they truly need going forward:
1. Can Colby Rasmus rebound?
Although he continues to struggle at the plate there are signs that he can turn it around, in the meantime his defense has been outstanding and he should continue to be the Jays CF.
2. Can Adam Lind Regain his 2009 form?
The answer to this is a resounding No and it looks like the team has moved on and will look to find a more permanent solution.
3. Is Eric Thames the Answer in LF?
Again the answer is a resounding No as not only did he continue to struggle defensively, but the league found holes in his swing leading to Thames putting up the lowest OPS among the 16 regular left fielders in major league baseball at the time of his demotion to Las Vegas today.
4. What about Travis Snider
Unfortunately this question has yet to be answered as a wrist injury has caused him to miss a significant number of games and hinder his production. However he did show signs of improving his plate discipline prior to the injury. Unfortunately it may be too little too late.
5. Can Brandon Morrow take that Next Step to Acehood?
In spite of his recent shellacking at the hands of the Texas Rangers, Morrow has been the Blue Jays best starting pitcher this season. Has he become an ace? I think it is probably a little premature to say he has, but he continues to improve and will be a trusted key component in the rotation for years to come.
6. What Should we make of Kelly Johnson and Edwin Encarnacion?
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, along with Jose Bautista, these two players have been the the most productive hitters on the team. This is unfortunate because they are both heading into free agency and will likely demand a sizable contract that will outweigh their value. I would recommend the team sell high on these two rather than committing into long term deals for mid level talent.
7. What Can we expect from Brett Lawrie
I love Brett Lawrie's future, however expectations for his performance got out of control during the off-season and people need to remember that he is just 22 years old and just learning to become a major league hitter. I would still lock him up to a long term contract now, and you could probably do this at a much better rate than even a month ago.
8. Which Prospects will have Break Out Seasons
Most of the Jays prospects are still at least a year away from the major leagues, however two players closest to the major leagues include Travis D'Arnaud, who I've never been all that high on, who really looks like a true elite prospect, and Anthony Gose who continues to make great strides in his development. While pitchers Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins have taken a step back this season, Noah Snydergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison and Justin Nicolino have all been receiving rave reviews. However, I must caution that other than Hutchison, these pitchers are a long way from the major leagues and a wise man once said "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect". Let's just temper our expectations and enjoy the ride.
Final Thoughts
So while it appears that many of the questions heading into the season have turned out negatively, I believe this is a positive and the organization now has a clear direction as to what they need to do to improve and take that next step towards becoming a contender.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Bad Day For Pitchers
For the following three American League East pitchers it has been a really bad day, mostly because of poor, poor decisions they have made:
1. After a trampoline accident Joba Chamberlain has a bone sticking out of his ankle.
2. Bobby Jenks got arrested after deciding to get drunk, then drive an automobile, damage some property and flee the scene.
3. The normally well behaved Matt Bush got arrested after getting drunk, driving, running down a 72 year old man on a motorcycle and fleeing the scene.
Update: Add another pitcher to the list of having a bad day as Joakim Soria has opted to undergo season ending Tommy John surgery. Given the kind of day it has been, I wouldn't be surprised to hear Chris Carpenter is also done for the season, not to mention potential bad news for Ryan Madsen and Brian Wilson.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Playing General Manager
According to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports the Orioles are shopping Mark Reynolds and Kevin Gregg. My initial reaction was, of course they are, they are the OriLOLes and who would want those stiffs. Then I got thinking a little more, put on my GM hat and thought to myself 'self, would the Blue Jays be in a better position if they traded Adam Lind for Mark Reynolds?'
Adam Lind has a very team friendly contract at $5 million for this year and next, then team friendly options for 2014 through 2016. However, there is a real chance that he isn't a very good player and the team may be better off just getting out of the contract altogether.
Mark Reynolds, the king of the strike out, has a $7.5 million contract for this year with an $11 million team option for 2013 (with a $500,000 buyout). Reynolds hasn't hit much either for the past couple of seasons, however, the man still knows how to take a walk, and hit plenty of home runs. Because of this, he has been slightly more valuable over the past two seasons than Lind (0.9 rWAR vs. 0.3 rWAR). However, if you take Mark Reynolds off of 3rd base and stick him at 1st base, this might absorb some of the impact that his -2.5 dWAR had last season, and the Jays could find themselves with a 3 WAR value player.
I think if I'm the general manger of the Blue Jays I'd at least put in a call and offer Lind straight up for Reynolds.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
2012 Season Preview: Toronto Blue Jays
Note: This article was supposed to be the third part of a series for Baseball Digest, however, the site folded before it was ever published, therefore I'm posting it here three weeks after it was written. Enjoy!
2011 Review
In 2011 the Toronto Blue Jays finished out of the playoffs for the 18th consecutive season finishing 4th in their division with 81 wins and 81 losses. However, all was not doom and gloom for this team as the season was filled with positives such as the emergence of Canadian born Brett Lawrie, a repeat Hank Aaron award winning season for Jose Bautista and continued stockpiling of the farm system by GM Alex Anthopolous.
2012 Preview
There are remarkably few positions on the Toronto Blue Jays up for the taking this year, the rotation looks set, the revamped bullpen is full, and the only position on the field that could be up for grabs is left fields and even then the team has identified a clear front runner. Therefore, let's take a quick look at the projected 25 man opening day roster:
The Rotation
- Romero, Ricky - The ace
- Morrow, Brandon – The guy who has the stuff to be the ace
- Alvarez, Henderson – The rookie coming off a strong 10 game audition in 2011
- Cecil, Brett – The guy looking to rebound and winner of this spring training's "best shape of his life" award
- McGowan, Dustin – The remarkable talent without any remaining 'options'
The Starter – On Deck
It has been said by numerous prognosticators and minor league evaluators that the Toronto Blue Jays have the greatest depth of minor league talent of any team in baseball and their strength is pitching. However, there aren't that many we can expect to make an impact this season. One player who could play a role is Kyle Drabek who is coming off a disappointing season in both the majors and the minors, but with his talent it's too early to give up on him yet, and with any young pitcher you never know when the light bulb turns on and he finally gets it.
The Bullpen
- Sergio Santos – The closer everyone wanted
- Francisco Cordero – The closer no one wanted in spite of great numbers last season, so he signed as a set up man
- Darren Oliver – The LOOGY, but not really (have you seen his splits? Under a .600 OPS against vs. Both lefty's and righty's)
- Casey Janssen – The stud from last season
- Jason Frasor – The Jays all time leader in appearances for a pitcher was reacquired in the off-season because we just couldn't get enough of him
- Carlos Villanueva – The stud reliever who's numbers get watered down every year because of mediocre spot starts
- Luis Perez – The guy who shouldn't have a spot on the roster but there is a rule that all bullpens must have two lefty's
I've left Jesse Litsch off the bullpen roster, who otherwise should be there. However he has recently been shut down due to shoulder inflammation, including having a visit to the dreaded Dr. James Andrews.
The Starting Infield
- Adam Lind (1B) – It seems everyone in Toronto has given up on this guy, but I still have hope
- Kelly Johnson (2B) – Underrated, or is he? Yes, yes he is! I think? Oh who the hell knows what to expect from him?
- Yunel Escobar (SS) – Someone said that Yunel is the best shortstop in the American League and my immediate reaction was disbelief. But then I couldn't name anyone better than him?
- Brett Lawrie (3B) – The franchise! No pressure kid
The Starting Outfield
- Eric Thames – I expect big things this year from Thames, and not just because he showed up to camp with arms the size of my head. Although, many others think Travis Snider should be starting over him
- Colby Rasmus – With Tony LaRussa out of his head could this be the year he takes off? Probably not, but he should be better than last season
- Jose Bautista – The home run king who should have won the American League most valuable player award last season
The Designated Hitter
- Edwin Encarnacion – He put up monster numbers last season when he started at DH, let's hope the team doesn't need to put him anywhere else this season
The Bench
- Travis Snider – He may start the season in the minors so that he can play every day, however because he may also be the team's starting left fielder, I'm leaving him on the roster
- Rajai Davis – I love having a guy like this on the bench!
- Jeff Mathis – The no hit, back-up catcher guy
- Omar Vizquel – The veteran presence on the bench
- Ben Francisco – The player acquired during the off season that didn't make a lot of sense?
The Minors
As I mentioned above the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system is one of the highest rated in baseball, which is greatly due to its depth of talent. However, while there are many that could break out and become elite prospects this season, it is hard to pin point anyone that I would consider a "can't miss" prospect (sorry Travis D'Anraud). I also don't think there is really anyone in the minor leagues that will have a major impact with the big club in 2012, as almost all of the decent prospects are at least a year away. If I had to pick someone to make an impact with the Blue Jays this season, I suspect that it would be a starting pitcher, possibly a Deck McGuire or a Drew Hutchinson.
My Predictions
Blue Jays MVP – Jose Bautista
Blue Jays Ace (pitcher) – Brandon Morrow
Blue Jays's 2012 record – 85-77
Blue Jay's 2012 finish in division – 4th
In Conclusion
It seems this team is fully of guys that could be either elite, or horrible, so it really is difficult to project how they will do. Overall I see this team with fewer holes in their line-up than last season, a lot of young talent that will continue to improve, a much improved bullpen, and specifically I'm projecting better seasons from Brandon Morrow, Colby Rasmus, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind. Regardless, it will be fun to watch.
Blue Jays logo, courtesy SportsLogos.net.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Blue Jays 2012 Projected Wins
On the weekend I decided to take my lovely wife out for a special Valentines Day dinner and a movie. Given that it took us until the last minute to find a sitter for our two children it didn't leave me any time to make dinner reservations...big mistake. We got to the restaurant strategically located close to the theatre and unfortunately the wait time for a table was much too long if we wanted to make it to the movie in time, so we decided to go elsewhere. Of course being the Saturday before Valentines Day everywhere we went there were no tables available. After finally ending up eating at a quicky soup and sandwich place, because there was just no time at left for anything else, we gobbled down our mediocre sandwiches and rushed back to the movie theater. The movie we settled on, being Valentine's Day weekend and all, was The Vow, which I figured would be pretty much like every other movie of that genre and just entertaining enough that I wouldn't fall asleep. Sometime though, very rarely of course, these types of movies can be surprisingly outstanding. Of course I never got a chance to find out as the movie was sold out and the entire night was a disaster.
As I can relate anything back to baseball this night got me thinking that the 2012 Blue Jays are kind of like the movie The Vow, in that I have very little expectations for this team heading into the season. Most likely this team is going to be middle of the road and just entertaining enough to keep my interest. However, every once in a while a team comes out of nowhere and surprises you in being much better than anyone ever expected. So could the 2012 Blue Jays be one of those teams that surprises everyone, and really what should we be expecting for this season?
Going into the 2012 season the general consensus seems to be that the Toronto Blue Jays likeliest outcome is another 4th place finish behind the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. In fact, I've been pretty vocal that 2012 should be viewed as a season to figure out what this team really has, and used to determine their biggest needs. It feels like almost everyone on this team outside of Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero could be great, or horrible, making it really difficult to determine what positions are in the greatest need of an upgrade. But what do the numbers say, how many wins should we really be expecting from this team?
Last year I sat down and did this very exercise that I'm about to do today and I used projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to forecast the number of wins we should expect from the Blue Jays. I came up with with my own projections bases on my expectations, trending and past results to forecast players WAR values and in the end I came up with the projection that the Blue Jays would win 84 games in 2011. As it turns out if it weren't for a late season stumble I may have been bang on and as it was I wasn't far off as the Blue Jays won 81 games. This season, I'm going to do things a little differently which we will get into a little later, but first I want to look back on 2011 and using players WAR values see how many games the Blue Jays should have won this past season.
Looking Back on 2011
The principle theory behind the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic is that it assigns a specific number of wins (positive or negative) to a player in relation to replacement level talent. Replacement level talent is defined as a combined set of players that would make up a team with a .320 winning percentage, which is equivalent to 52 wins over a 162 game schedule.
Below you will find a list of each 2011 Blue Jays players final season WAR values broken out by position player (table 1) and pitcher (table 2).
Table 1 - Total WAR by Batter for the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays
|Jose Bautista
|Yunel Escobar
|Brett Lawrie
|Jose Molina
|Edwin Encarnacion
|J.P. Arencibia
|Kelly Johnson*
|Corey Patterson*
|John McDonald
|Eric Thames*
|Adam Lind*
|Mike McCoy
|Mark Teahen*
|David Cooper*
|Jayson Nix
|Darin Mastroianni
|Adam Loewen*
|Chris Woodward
|Aaron Hill
|Dewayne Wise*
|Travis Snider*
|Colby Rasmus*
|Rajai Davis
|Juan Rivera
|Total Offense
Table 2 - Total WAR by Pitcher for the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays
|Ricky Romero*
|Carlos Villanueva
|Casey Janssen
|Brandon Morrow
|Henderson Alvarez
|Brett Cecil*
|Frank Francisco
|Jason Frasor
|Jesse Litsch
|Marc Rzepczynski*
|Joel Carreno
|Octavio Dotel
|Zach Stewart
|Shawn Camp
|Jon Rauch
|Chad Beck
|Trever Miller*
|Mike McCoy
|P.J. Walters
|Scott Richmond
|Dustin McGowan
|Luis Perez*
|David Purcey*
|Danny Farquhar
|Kyle Drabek
|Rommie Lewis*
|Wil Ledezma*
|Jo-Jo Reyes*
|Brian Tallet*
|Brad Mills*
|Total Pitchers
From the tables above we see that the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays offense (and defense) represented a total of 18.4 wins above replacement level and the pitchers represented 15.2 wins for a combined 33.6 wins above replacement. Add this to the number of wins a replacement level team should win (52 or 51.84 to be exact), and this would suggest that the Blue Jays should have won approximately 85.44 games in 2011. Not that far off from the actual 81 games the team won, however from my limited experience doing these types of exercises I have found that when you add up a teams total player WAR value, it often does result in 3 or 4 more wins than the actual amount.
2012 Projection
This year when projecting each Blue Jays player WAR values, rather than make my own, probably biased, educated guess for each player, I decided to turn to the fine folks of Fangraph who polled the general public of their expectations for the majority of players in baseball. To see the results for the Toronto Blue Jays player projections go to Fangraphs here, or refer to the tables below for the projected WAR values by batter (Table 3) and by pitcher (Table 4).
Note: for any player who didn't have WAR projections for the 2012 season, I projected a repeat of their 2011 WAR value.
Table 3 - Projected WAR Values for Blue Jays 2012 Batters
|Jose Bautista
|Brett Lawrie
|Yunel Escobar
|Kelly Johnson*
|Colby Rasmus*
|J.P. Arencibia
|Travis Snider*
|Adam Lind*
|Edwin Encarnacion
|Eric Thames*
|Jeff Mathis
|Rajai Davis
|Ben Francisco
|Omar Vizquel
|Total Offense
Table 4 - Projected WAR Values for Blue Jays 2012 Pitchers
|Brandon Morrow
|Ricky Romero*
|Henderson Alvarez
|Darren Oliver
|Brett Cecil*
|Sergio Santos
|Carlos Villanueva
|Dustin McGowan
|Casey Janssen
|Jesse Litsch
|Jason Frasor
|Francisco Cordero
|Total Pitching
From the tables above we see that the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays projected offense (and defense) represent a total of 34.3 wins above replacement level and the pitchers represent 16.7 wins for a combined 51 wins above replacement. Add this to the number of wins a replacement level team should win (52), and this would suggest that the Blue Jays will win 103 games in 2012.
The Blue Jays will win 103 games in 2012!
Something has got to be wrong here. Could someone please look over my numbers as I must have made a mistake, my calculations state that the Blue Jays will win 103 games this year. That this years team is actually the greatest Blue Jays team ever assembled. Next thing you will tell me is that The Vow will be the surprise Oscar winner for best movie.
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MATTHEW DEAR (Live) with Special Guests
Depending on whom you ask, Matthew Dear is a DJ, a dance-music producer, an experimental pop artist, a bandleader. He co-founded both Ghostly International and its dancefloor offshoot, Spectral Sound. Hes had remixes commissioned by The XX, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Spoon, Hot Chip, The Postal Service, and Chemical Brothers; hes made mixes for Get Physicals Body Language and Fabric mix series. He maintains four aliases (Audion, False, Jabberjaw, and Matthew Dear), each with its own style and distinct visual identity. He straddles multiple musical worlds and belongs to noneand hes just hitting his stride.
Matthew Dears 2003 full-length debut, Leave Luck to Heaven, is a suite of sparse, wickedly funky house laced with Dear's deep, distinctive vocals, and includes the much-loved single Dog Days (voted one of Pitchforks Top 100 Songs of the Decade). The record was met with rapturous acclaim from both the dance-music establishment and the critical press, including a four-star review in Rolling Stone. The 2007 follow-up, Asa Breed, is a considerable departure from Heavens dancefloor excursions, incorporating the polyrhythms of Afrobeat, the irreverent pop sensibilities of Brian Eno, and the austere beauty of Krautrock. More four-stars reviews followed, and Dear subsequently began touring with a live three-piece band, Matthew Dears Big Hands, in which Dear acted as frontman, commanding the stage with a Bryan Ferry-like swagger and a gentlemans grace.
2010 saw the release of Dears watershed third album, Black City, a darkly playful sound-world that envelops the listener like the arms of a malevolent lover. Black City was met with near-unanimous critical praise, earning top marks from Mojo, Uncut, Q, URB, and the Village Voice, ending up on countless year-end lists, and earning Pitchfork's coveted Best New Music nod. A worldwide tour followed, in which Dear and a newly expanded band continued to hone their live chops with vicious focus.
Matthew Dears latest full-length, 2012's Beams, is both a drastic departure from and worthy successor to _Black City_s gothic masterwork. A suite of weird, wild, and queasily optimistic rhythm-driven pop songs, Beams is the latest chapter in the continuing evolution of one of music's most fascinating minds. After over a decade of exploring pops outer limits, Matthew Dear now inhabits a rarified corner of the musical universe: no longer tethered to any one genre, respected by his peers, and blessed with a bottomless well of creative energy. Now is Matthew Dears moment, and it sounds like nothing else.
On stage, Matthew Dear performs with a multi-pieced live band, unraveling the tightly wound album tracks into kaleidoscopic walls of sound. They have supported Interpol, Hot Chip and Depeche Mode on their world tours, and have performed sold-out shows from London to New York City.


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Monday, March 19, 2012
Will Tolbert signing mean the end of Double Trouble?
The big news locally, though, is the signing of running back Mike Tolbert, a former Coastal Carolina back whose 5-9, 243-pound build has long been compared to a bowling ball. His agent Joel Turner said Tolbert wanted to join the Panthers so badly he "left over a million on the table" to come to Charlotte.
Tolbert will join a crowded backfield that, for now, includes DeAngelo Williams (signed to a huge contract last year), Jonathan Stewart (entering the final year of his contract) and Mike Goodson (who fell out of favor last season and looks very expendable). Tolbert will apparently be a fullback, first and foremost, along with a special-teams player.
The Panthers use Cam Newton as a virtual running back at times, too, especially near the goal line. So can they afford another huge investment in Stewart, who will likely want DeAngelo money (a reported five years and $43 million) and will get it somewhere? Stewart is under contract this year but becomes a free agent in 2013.
I think this is a good move for the Panthers -- Tolbert will shore up the special teams, is versatile and is generally a good utility guy who played collegiately at Coastal Carolina. Panthers GM Marty Hurney called Tolbert a "very versatile player" in a statement.
Tolbert tied for the Chargers' team lead last year with 12 special-teams tackles and also led San Diego with eight rushing TDs. He's got a nose for the end zone, with 26 career TDs despite rarely starting.
If the Panthers can keep "Double Trouble" together along with Tolbert, more power to them. We've seen over and over how well Stewart and Williams work together. Tolbert certainly sounds like he won't mind blocking for either one of them when the Panthers get in a two-back set.
But can the Panthers afford to keep Stewart after this season? Maybe not. Two huge contracts is an awful lot to invest in the position when there are many times that Stewart or Williams only carries the ball 10 or so times per game.
With that being said, if rumors that DeAngelo or Stewart are on the trading block were true (the Panthers don't comment on trade rumors) would not surprise me at all.
But it also would surprise me if either was ultimately traded -- the NFL, for various reasons, makes far fewer trades than, say, the NBA.
If Stewart is traded, he would have to sign a new contract extension with the new team -- nobody would want to trade some significant assets for him and then risk losing him after a year (much like Greg Olsen did with Carolina). If Williams is traded, another team would have to assume a huge contract, which also can be problematic.
If there are no trade takers -- and either Stewart or DeAngelo, to me, would be worth a No.1 pick at the least -- then you could at least pair them together one more time for the 2012 season and just see what develops. The Panthers have one more year of Stewart at a cheap rate, so they don't have to make any immediate decisions about this.
But ultimately, Double Trouble is going to have to end sometime. Nothing lasts forever. And given Tolbert's versatility -- he's a fine insurance policy at several positions -- this does increase the possibility that it might be sooner rather than later.
31 comments:
Yes, I think Double Trouble (as we know it) is closing down. Don't cry however...this is a TEAM move (overloaded at RB when you consider what Cam does on his own) and you don't know yet how it will play out. I expect Stewart to be traded and this translates into something big, likely in the draft. A defensive stud, more early round picks, or Blackmon.
- March 19, 2012 at 12:42 PM
Trade Williams and use the cap room to re-sign Stewart. DeAngelo reverted back to his old lazy self during the work stoppage and couldn't break a tackle all season.
- March 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM
Running backs rarely get number 1 picks back from a trade. Not sure what you are looking at Scott.m
- March 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Let's sign SDs running back who we don't need yet let SDs top wide receiver, who we do need, slip past and sign the Tampa.
Not liking the coaching moves so far Rivera.
- March 19, 2012 at 1:03 PM
You can never have too much depth. And you have another brusing back to play in the second half of games to save wear and tear on Williams/Stewart to get them ready for the playoffs.
- March 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM
I'll say it again. We need to keep Cam healthy which means he needs to run the ball less. Whoever we have in the RB position needs to be more involved in the offense. The OL has got to step up and provide better protection for Cam and open bigger holes in the opposing DL. If Cam continues to run the ball so much, we are going to have an injured, broke down QB.
- March 19, 2012 at 1:20 PM
Throwing huge money at running backs is a waste.
- March 19, 2012 at 1:35 PM
Another strange signing, especially in light of signing D. Williams to a huge contract extension last year. Can they renegotiate D.Williams' contract and hopefully keep both? Both Willams and Stewart are great RBs & should command a top-10 pick, but Stewart really excelled last year and looked better in games. I hope the Panthers don't screw up the next RB transaction, but with Hurney at the helm, I'll be expecting another questionable transaction. Hurney made it much tougher on himself by giving Williams that HUGE contract last year. I'm just concerned that many other teams are making solid additions to their team, and the Panthers seem to be relying on the Draft this year. Would've been nice to have a better salary cap manager.
- March 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM
Are you crazy? A number 1 pick for either one of them? That will not be even close to what they will get. If their LUCKY, they will get a #3. On a previous post someone said a top ten pick. That is just too funny, wow.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:03 PM
This guy is a short yardage, 3rd down FB. <500yds last year with SD. You let Deangelo or Stewart go for this guy could be the biggest mistake made. Cut Vaughn if anything.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM
Cut Vaughn, try to get anything for goodson. Keep Stewart restructure Williams contract. Or try a trade maybe to a number 3 pick and try for Kalil help the o-line.the recievers will get us through another year.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM
Hello Carolina Chargers! I hope this works out. Personally, I think Goodson is good as done anyway with the team. I suspect either Williams or Stewart is also. I don't think it's personal, Coach R has a plan and Hurney is on board.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM
For those who think the Panthers are going to get a bounty for Stewart, think again. Running backs are losing value fast in the NFL, especially those who are hurt frequently. I think it is a good talent, but RBs seem to be a dime a dozen in the NFL anymore. I bet we get a 3rd rounder at best for Stewart, especially since teams now know that we want to trade him.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:27 PM
- Anonymous said...
I think a big reason tolbert was signed was the versatility he brings in the offense. The guy has over 100 receptions for his career and provides another great safety net for Cam. I think we trade Stewart to move around in the opening rounds with teams that have multiple picks (Cincy, Cleveland) and snag a defender. Is it completely outlandish to try and trade our #9, Stew, and a mid rounder for Cleveland's #4? Just a thought.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:31 PM
Great pick up for special teams, which the Panthers badly need. And to use in short yardage and as a fullback. Now to sure up the O line some and this offense will have a chance to put up major points each week. BTW Goodson and Vaughn will both be hard pressed to make this team in any capacity but special teams.
- March 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM
This is a really unecessary expenditure. Both Stewart and Williams are also versatile players who catch it well and can break runs of 30,40 yards on a regular basis. Receiver was clearly the bigger need and has been for years now.
- March 19, 2012 at 4:00 PM
I will give the organization the benefit of the doubt and see how it plays out..
I like both of our RB's and kick butt with them in Madden 12, online..
- March 19, 2012 at 5:07 PM
I wish I had the 2011 stat that tells how many times a Panthers drive stalled out at the one or two yard line and how many games were lost as a result. I know there were several. Tolbert is a nice move to resolve this problem (even if a decoy)...along with a healthy O-Line.
- March 19, 2012 at 5:13 PM
Toatally disagree ,Williams will be the one traded with the Panthers needing cap room THIS year ,and Williams is signed fpr 4 yrs which would be more attractive than a potential UFA next year in Stewart ,also the Panthers need to move a big contract to sign any draft picks THIS year = Bye Bye Williams.
- March 19, 2012 at 5:45 PM
Williams doesn't have that many years left. An early second rounder would be a good trade for him. I like Stewart better as an every down back. Can't believe Tolbert left a million on the table.
- March 19, 2012 at 6:41 PM
goodbye gaptoothed goodson
- March 19, 2012 at 7:31 PM
- DieHardCatXX said...
Sounds like we are gearing up to run a full house wishbone formation! I like it though. Think about it- with Cam a serious running threat, Williams, Stewart, and Tolbert all on the field simultaneously with 5 linemen, Smith on the flank, and a Lafell (or God-willing a Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd) on the other side. That's incomprehensibly unstoppable!! The defense will have no idea who to key in on!! It's like Tebow to 100th power!!
- March 19, 2012 at 8:59 PM
Do we really want to lose Stewart and keep Williams? Stewart has proven to be more versatile and more dependable in my opinion.
- March 19, 2012 at 10:12 PM
I think it may be wishful thinking on your part, but, your enthusiasm gives me goose bumps and makes me chuckle. I don't see us with two RB's and an FB in the formation and foregoing our soon-to-be-a-star TE Olsen. If they're working with Cam on his ball placement during the offseason, I see Olsen doubling his production. But having a FB to help block for our running game is paramount. Like someone said earlier, we need to keep Cam from running. It's a nice option to have. But, I'd rather see that big arm than those big legs. Especially with the RB tandem we already have.
- March 19, 2012 at 10:59 PM
How many times did Chud run plays with one of the tight ends in the backfield last season, which were never a real threat to run with the ball? He might be replacing Shockey, not one of the RB's. But keep typing away about who we have to trade knuckleheads!
- March 19, 2012 at 11:47 PM
i smell a marty move here. what a dang brain surgeon. he needs to go. buy a decent secondary
- March 20, 2012 at 1:57 AM
This is to replace Goodson. The Panthers can decide to keep Stewart and Williams next year if they want to, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do, but I don't think Tolbert has a huge impact on that.
This guy's role is to become the new Brad Hoover.
- March 20, 2012 at 8:46 AM
D'Angelo Williams said it himself.Neither him or JSTEW is going anywhere...y'all trippin
- March 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM
Pats fan here (popped in as I was curious to get a pulse on what the Rb vibe was with your organization )
a)Tolbert is a great addition to ANY team - no matter how many other rbs there already are on board. The guy is a special teams ace and a great locker room guy to boot.
b) You dont really want your Qb ducking his head consistently @ the goal line - eventually bad things happen . Tolbert can and will solve the issue.
c) NOBODY ...and I mean nobody will give you a 1st rounder for either rb. If you havnt noticed - the league is rapidly getting away from the highly -paid workhorse Rb model...too risky .Lower salaried Multiple Rbs that perform different duties is the way to go in the NFL ,and GM's now shy away from paying Star Rbs( look at what happened to arguably the leagues most explosive rb Chris Johnson after he signed for big bucks )
d) It's fairly well known that after DeAngelo got payed , he strayed. Great talent but way over payed. You're stuck with him ( and his cap eatin' self )
e) Stewart is equally talented - but as noted his contracts down to one year - so the question is ... Does he feel he needs to GET PAYED ? If so - nobody is going to be interested . On the other hand if he's reasonable and is willing to take market value ( or even below - say to go to a contender and possibly pad his wallet with playoff money and added marketing money )Then I'd say a mid to late 2nd might be in order... IMO.
Final note - Your franchise is clearly on the rise & Munchak appears to be a competent leader of men .I'm sure he knows better than anyone what needs to be done with the rb situation and has obviously begun to address it .
Best wishes from NE and here's hopin' we meet up agin in a SB soon.
- March 20, 2012 at 12:43 PM
I think some people are overlooking some key points in this. Tolbert has clearly been listed as a fullback. Show me how many teams dont have depth at running back....not many. Tolbert also took significantly less to come to carolina which opens up more money to be spent elsewhere. i don't thin k think this was a bad move. I know anything is possible in this BUSINESS but would hate to see Stew. or Williams go anywhere. Do I think anytype of trade will happen...No. It sounds like Tolbert has been taken mainly due to a great deal that he would take to come to Carolina, not meant as a replacement.
- March 20, 2012 at 1:56 PM
Stewart does have a history of injury concerns. However, a look at the stats will show his four year career average in YPC of 4.8 YPC is exactly the same as Adrian Perterson's five year average (4.8) and Chris Johnson's four year average (4.8).
If he were to go to the right place and stay reasonably healthy, I'd suggest he could be VERY successful for someone. Trade for a first round pick successful? Maybe not. Trade for a second or third? Absolutely.
- March 20, 2012 at 9:03 PM