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We have completed 100+ Graphics & Website Projects successfully
Quality Construction is one of the best, modern, easy to use responsive Free WordPress themes with colorful design and stunning flexibility. This theme is capable of tackling the overall needs of all construction websites including business and others. Quality Construction can also be used for business and corporate websites. The advanced theme options and available various widgets with drag and drop features will help to customize your site as your need. Some of the available options are awesome slider section, header options, footer options, layout design options Color options, widget options, custom copyright options integrated social icons using menu, reset color option and lots of other available options will allow you to create unique website as you want. This theme will help you to create very high quality construction website easily with no time at all.
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Natural Thai deodorant stick stone 4.25oz by Deodorant Stones Of America International (Manufacturer-Distributor). Pure and Natural deodorant, Crystal deodorant stone.
* [1] Note: Unless otherwise noted, this product has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. Our natural products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.

subset: commoncrawl


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Website Alarm.com
A rapidly expanding, entrepreneurial technology company, Alarm.com, is seeking a motivated Software Engineer who wants to be part of a fast-paced, rapidly growing team. The Engineering team is perfect for candidates who want to gain exposure to a wide variety of technologies including RF networks, intelligent video analysis, device firmware, home automation, web application development, e-commerce applications, and large scale, mission critical database application development. Very few small companies innovate and develop across such a broad range of technologies as Alarm.com. This position is ideal for the candidate who seeks a small, friendly company culture where one can work closely with smart and highly productive people across a very interesting spectrum of wireless, software, and hardware/device technologies to develop outstanding consumer products.
This internship would begin summer 2017.
The Software Engineer's primary job responsibilities will include:
- Designing, developing and maintaining applications using Microsoft .NET technologies, C# and SQL Server
- Analyzing functional requirements and product specifications
- Researching, adopting and integrating new technologies
- Innovating and improving existing products
- Taking ownership of projects to ensure their successful completion with respect to deadlines
- Collaborating with Quality Assurance in developing a test plan to ensure successful deployment of updates
- Must be currently pursuing a B.A. or B.S. in Computer Science or similar engineering program with strong academic performance
- Previous internship experiences, extra-curricular activities, and software related personal projects are a huge plus
- Proven self-starter, analytical, tenacious problem solver
- Strong verbal and written communication skills
- Proven team experience and comfort in a team-oriented environment
- Passion for working with technology and excitement for creating high quality consumer technology products
- Collaborate with outstanding people: We hire only the best. Our quality standards are high and our employees enjoy working alongside other high achievers.
- Make an immediate impact: Our interns are given the opportunity to work on software that will impact our product and that our customers will see. You are empowered to perform as soon as you join the Alarm.com team!
- Gain well rounded experience: Alarm.com offers a diverse and dynamic environment where you will get the chance to work directly with executives and gain a broad knowledge base across multiple areas of the business.
- Work with latest technologies: As we continue to lead the industry, we provide interns with opportunities to work across a broad spectrum of technologies including short and long-range wireless communication, video surveillance, lighting and HVAC automation, web development, and backend application development and hosting.
- Focus on fun: Alarm.com places high value on our team culture. We have training, events, outings and activities planned specifically for our interns and for encouraging team building between our interns and full time employees.
Alarm.com is the leading cloud-based platform for the smart home. Millions of home and business owners depend on our technology every day to make their properties safer, smarter and more efficient. We make the Smart Home broadly accessible by enabling easy automation and control across a range of connected devices through our single, intuitive user interface. Alarm.com earned the Top Workplace™ award for its employee culture and the meaningful work we do every day to develop and bring to market new technology that will make millions of people safer and help them use energy more efficiently. We're seeking those who are passionate about creating change through technology and who want to make a lasting impact on the world around them. Our solutions are exclusively distributed through a network of authorized service providers. For more information, please visit www.alarm.com.
Alarm.com offers competitive pay and a generous benefits package starting on day one of employment including 100% paid medical for employees, a health savings account option with company contribution, waiver allowance, 401(k) with employer match, paid holidays, paid time off starting at 4 weeks and increasing with tenure and paid maternity/paternity leave. We offer a casual dress work environment, annual company retreat, grocery delivery and in suite bike racks and showers.
To apply for this job please visit the following URL: http://www.alarm.com/about/open-positions.aspx?jvi=orrK3fwp,Job →


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Find a Physician
At Baptist Medical Group, our team of physicians is committed to providing the absolute best in health care to the communities they serve. Click on the profile links to the right to meet our team of doctors.
Comprehensive Care
As a comprehensive health care system, we're sure to have a physician that's right for you. If you don't find what you're seeking here, visit the Baptist Health Care Web site. There you'll find a full list of our system's services and active medical-staff physicians.
Hospitalists |
Baptist Medical Group Hospitalists
Cardiovascular Disease
Family Medicine |
Baptist Medical Group Primary Care -Live Oak
Endocrinology |
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Obstetrics |
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Cardiology (Heart)


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PuzziPix Pro combines photos with perfectly fitting puzzle components for great composition and storytelling. In Advertising, contexts and connotations can be in high demand for designers, so having puzzles, as a visual technique can be invaluable. PuzziPix Pro turns any photograph into an eye-catching jigsaw puzzle with creative control over the final outcome.
Every photo placed in the app is automatically turned into a puzzle. Use Auto Generate to change puzzle styles, and the built-in Tools to Move, Size, Rotate and send pieces Front or Back.
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Use This App To Download -> Click Here
Get Account: Google Drive Unlimited, Lynda.com Lifetime, Grammarly,…
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The Best Mac OS X Apps and Utilities


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What runs through your mind when you hear the words spring cleaning? Perhaps you have a bit of dread or fear as you look around and see piles of clutter with dust on them, and this might even lead to feeling overwhelmed. Perhaps you feel excitement and happy feelings, looking forward to clearing away that which is no longer useful and having a fresh clean slate. Perhaps you've even thought farther ahead, past the cleaning and purging, to the beautiful new boxes and upgraded items that you hope to bring in afterwards.
I've always liked the beautiful therapeutic ritual of spring cleaning, especially the purging of things no longer beneficial, but for a while I struggled with guilt over buying anything new, especially after getting rid of so much stuff. It was only with a lot of intentional thought about it that I eventually realized that I was not simply cycling through stuff, but rather continually tweaking and optimizing in such a way that I continually created more time, space, and energy to focus on the most important and vital aspects of life. It took me a long time to realize that what is good one summer may not be best the next summer. And so, if nature herself renews each year, shedding the loveliest rose in winter, in order to birth forth another more beautiful the next year, so too should I. This particular round of spring cleaning has been particularly intensive for us (but that's another post entirely), and we've been turning over every item in our little home. It takes work and time, but the results will be so worth it.
However, this year I want to shift my focus just a little bit, and I encourage you to join me, dear friends. Beyond the simple spring cleaning to wipe away the grime and dust and grey of winter, let's also engage in a deep and immersive spring clearing, ridding ourselves not just of possessions that are no longer helpful and clutter, but also of old habits that no longer serve, maybe even old ideas that hold us back. I'm feeling the need for almost a total cleanse or detox – not really in the usual sense of diet, but taking an inventory and an honest look at what is working and what isn't, and then acting to release what is not working, and accentuate the positives. I know that many of us have some minimalist leanings and longings, and it only makes sense that if we desire space and to feel lighter, then we need to let go. So here are some things in my life that I am looking to release, replace, and increase.
Release & Replace
- rushing – replace with planning ahead and taking the proper time required
- stress – replace with gentle morning routine, regular naps, regular relaxing showers & baths, herbal tea, meditation
- clutter – replace with carefully curated, versatile items and neat organized files
- processed and artificial foods – replace these with homemade foods that focus on natural and whole ingredients, and to purchase high-quality foods
- hurried dining style – replace with intentional and more mindful eating, make the meal an event
- aimless web surfing – replace with purposeful, intentional times
- faith – getting more involved with our church
- sleep – going to bed earlier, having regular naps
- time spent in thought & intentionality – journaling, dreaming, and just being alone with my thoughts
- reading – I love reading… self-development, the Bible, fiction – it feeds my mind and my soul
- exercise – movement that feels good and strengthens my body
- fresh air – with warm weather come beautiful open skies, sunny beaches, and green parks, and I can't wait to fully immerse myself in them
- creating – writing, designing, sewing, cooking, homemaking
- consistent routines – having a schedule, and morning and evening routines that help me be a better version of me every day
How's spring cleaning going for you? Anyone else doing more clearing than cleaning this time around – or even adding new things into your mix?


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Stock market operators waited eagerly for the result of our offer - the biggest ever in the history of the Nigerian stock market.
Zenith Bank Plc has won another international honour as Banker of Year 2005 conferred on it by The Banker Magazine, a subsidiary of the influential Financial Times of London.
Governor Masari lauded Zenith Bank for the support insisting that the best investment was that which focused on education.
We have a lot to share as events unfold in our industry, so visit us often to get the latest news from Zenith Bank and the banking industry.
In case you missed that article about how we are changing the face of small business lending, or pioneering new electronic ways to pay, we have saved them here for you.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then videos are the gold standard for telling our stories. Know more about our world by viewing our videos here.
Need to know how we are doing? Listen in as we review our performance results here.
See our world in pictures. Couldn't make it to our AGM? Or missed out on all the fun of our end of year festivities? This is a good place to catch up.
Whether you are looking for Account Opening Forms or Standard & Poor's Rating Report from 2009, you can find printable versions of all documents that relate to our business, our products and services here.
Connect with like-minded, discerning individuals and swap savings tips, stock options and simple solutions to financial issues. Also engage with us and share your service expectations here.
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In 125kg category of freestyle wrestling, Komeil Ghasemi of Iran easily defeated Korey Jarvis of Canada 5-2. Ghasemi then won Diaaeldin Kamal Gouda Abdelmottaleb of Egypt 7-0 in only to meet Geno Petriashvili of Georgia.
In his third match, Ghasemi had a difficult fight against Petrishvili who began better and was ahead of Ghsemi 3-1. Komeil Ghasemi but managed to get ahead 4-3 until fnial seconds when Georgian wrestler gained another point and Ghasemi won the game 4-4- to go for semifinals.
In semifinal he faced Tervel Dlagnev of the United States who was expected to be a tough match for him. Komeil Ghasemi needed just 33 seconds to earn a 10-0 technical fall over two-time world bronze medalist Tervel Dlagnev to advance to the finals at 125kg. Ghasemi picked up a takedown and then used four gut wrenches to finish the match. He will upgrade his Olympic medal as he finished with bronze in London.


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I have a love and hate relationship with Second Life gachas. Anything I really want I would rather buy outright and get exactly what I want rather than taking a gamble and end up with something I don't really like or have no use for. However, I do play them occasionally when it's something I want and I don't mind which one I come out with. Sometimes from a photography point of view spinning the gacha wheel as it were is actually a great way to trigger some creative inspiration. Having for example the colour of something or the style of hat decided for you can act as something of an artistic catalyst.
Month: August 2016
Colour Me InFashion
One of my favourite places to browse is Cosmopolitan Events, the bi-weekly fashion Event showcasing some fantastic new products from Second Life designers. In addition, every Tuesday they also have their Hello Tuesday one day sales where you can pick up great bargains for one day only.
Dancing In EdenArt, Fashion, Lifestyle
One of our favourite places to dance the night away recently is the new to grid club Breck's which had it's grand opening on 20th August 2016. The club is the dreamchild of well-known Second Life DJ BreckQuinn and she and her associate owners have created a beautifully designed Club with a selection of excellent DJ's offering a mix of The Blues, Jazz, Romance and Rock at both casual and formal sets.
City BreakFashion, Travel
Perhaps slightly unusually, I play Second Life with my real life husband and we are monogomously partnered in the game as well as married in real life.
Cherry BlossomFashion
One of the great pleasures of Second Life to me is dressing my avatar which really allows me to bring out my love of fashion which has been something I have been interested in since childhood. One of the interesting off-shoots of this though is not only it resparked my creativity in taking photographs – which I used to do to a high standard in real life – but it has enabled me to find some interesting places for my avatar to model that I may have not found otherwise.


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Saturday, March 5, 2011
Sing as if Your Mother's not Listening
"You're saying you want me to pick up your friends, and take you all up to Sonoma State, but then not go inside?"
"You'll just make me too nervous."
"But having your friends watch won't?" I asked.
"It's weird. Having them there doesn't make me nervous," she said.
Daughter is singing in a competition this morning. She is one of only two or three kids from her school daring to stand all alone on stage and sing to a hostile audience comprised of judges (who are likely the least hostile), fellow competitors (who totally want her to flub because they want to win), and parents of the fellow competitors (who won't say it aloud but who totally want her to flub so their child wins).
Her mother apparently doesn't provide her comfort. If this weren't Daughter, I would be more hurt or insulted. But this is Daughter, who didn't want me at her play in the fall when she had the bittiest of bit parts. Daughter, who prefers I not watch at the talent show. Daughter, who when she was 5 stood ramrod still during a dance camp performance and refused to budge. Daughter, who won't even sing for me the tiniest snippet of one of the songs she'll be performing as Annie in the school musical this spring.
And I would have been more hurt or insulted if, when Pete arrived home last night after another week away in Seattle, she hadn't made the same request of him.
So we'll agree to these terms. We'll look her right in the eye and say, "Okay, we'll stand outside." And then Pete is going to sneak in and watch her.
Me? I'm going to stay outside, fearful that my being seen by her will bring her back so many years so that she stands there, ramrod still, shutting down, losing her confidence, causing harm which takes years to resolve.
4 comments:
Oh man that's a tough one. What about a disguise? A blond wig? Baseball cap? :-)
So great that daughter is going for it--hope she does great!
--Michele R.
- March 5, 2011 at 8:39 AM
- Patois said...
I am so darn tempted to sneak in, but I don't know yet if I'll have the guts to chance it.
- March 5, 2011 at 8:41 AM
- JTS said...
Darn, raising kids, especially daughters, can be so challenging! I wish you knew someone who could be there to video it for you. I know how badly you want to see her perform, and yet at the same time honoring her level of trust and honesty is a huge thing that will mean a great deal to her. There were times I would have wanted to ask my parents not to attend, but I know they would have ignored me and laid on the guilt, so I didn't even try to communicate my feelings with them. I hope she does splendidly! I promise in the years ahead she'll come back to you and be closer than you ever dreamed possible, hang in there!
- March 5, 2011 at 2:13 PM
- Shorty the Dinosaur said...
If it helps at all, I have been on the reverse end of this sort of situation. I thought long and hard about asking my mum not to go to a poetry slam that I was reading at, or a play that I had more than one line in.
I was always afraid that I might not do well. I look up to her so much that even the thought of her seeing me mess up scares me. But I realized that she raised me and has seen me mess up plenty of times. And seeing that huge smile on her face at the end of my performance immediately wipes away all of the fears.
I have a feeling that she is just afraid of messing up in front of you. She wants to make you proud.
This is Morgan, by the way. (:
- March 17, 2011 at 6:50 PM
The Cover of Life
We shipped the very heavy, very expensive-to-ship box that contains a treasure trove of photos and mementos that my Mom had stored in her ga...
Something is happening in my life right now that I waver between sharing and keeping to myself. And I say I waver only because I'm a firm be...
As an infant, we have the power to induce love and tenderness in the toughest of men and women. As a young child, we have the power to soar ...


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Senior Cloud Architect
Posted on Dec 2, 2019 by Request Technology - Kyle Honn
Sr. Cloud Architect
This Cloud Architect will build, maintain and govern an enterprise level blueprint depicting a holistic view of the organization's business strategy through the supporting technology. Provide guidance and direction to the overall technical strategy and roadmap by aligning cost-effective and reusable solutions while advancing the usage of new emerging trends and technical capabilities. Partner with Business representatives, Application Portfolio & Application Development, Engineering, Operations and Support, IT Security, Digital partners, IT Planning, and the Project Management Office. Define and govern a series of deliverables and processes within the organization's operating model, ensuring every aspect of architecture is thoroughly considered and effectively executed. Develop a community of practice for the proper execution of the architectural components and for the enablement of solutions architecture.
- Create, maintain, and govern architectural views and blueprints depicting the Business and IT landscape in its current, transitional, and future state.
- Recommend long-term direction on strategic advancements within the technical portfolio.
- Define and maintain standards for artifacts containing architectural content within the operating model.
- Build a Community of Practice for solutions architecture while leveraging architectural tools, processes, and practices.
- Offer insight, guidance, and direction on the usage of emerging trends and technical capabilities.
- Bachelor's degree in a technical field or equivalent work experience with 10+ years in IT.
- Strong understanding of cloud technology and its implementation across major Cloud providers (ex. Azure, AWS and Google).
- Experience implementing and operating an enterprise-scale cloud, including service catalog and service enablement automation, DevOps automation frameworks, CI/CD pipelining, automated delivery models (blue-green, canary, etc.), cross-region DR and active-active architecture, tagging frameworks, audit controls using Cloud Custodian and similar tools.
- Experience planning and executing the migration of enterprise IT systems and applications to cloud. Experience transforming and migrating on-prem enterprise custom developed and COTS applications to public cloud environments.
- Experience with cloud native architecture and development. Proven expertise with modern architecture techniques including micro services and event driven architectures.
- Strong understanding of enterprise infrastructure and application components (Servers, storage, networks, database, application Servers etc.).
- Experience creating day1 cloud operating models with foundational capabilities and developing roadmaps to get to the desired future state operating model.
- Guide solutions architects to define transition steps and strategy for adopting and migrating to the cloud platforms.
- Experience developing standards and guidelines to be utilized in cloud development, integrations, and operations.
- Excellent communication and interpersonal skills, with emphasis on the ability to articulate the features and merits of cloud computing to diverse audiences.
If this is an opportunity that you're interested in please email your resume to: (see below)
Reference: 804322393


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The Independent Report provides an independent, non-partisan, non-ideological analysis of economic news. The Independent Report's mission is to inform its readers about the unsustainable nature of our economic system and the various stresses encumbering it: high debt levels (government, business, household); debt growth exceeding economic growth; low productivity growth; huge and persistent trade deficits; plus concurrent stock, bond and housing bubbles.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
4th Quarter GDP Revised Downward; Headwinds Persist In 2011
The Commerce Department has revised fourth quarter GDP downward to 2.8 percent from the earlier estimate of 3.2 percent. The original consensus estimate was 3.6 percent growth, so the new number is considerably lower than initially anticipated.
That presents an ominous sign of what's ahead as the federal government tries to reign in its serial deficits that are now exceeding $1 trillion annually.
Faced with continuously steep budget shortfalls, state governments cut spending by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, which greatly exceeded the 0.9 percent first estimated.
As previously noted, I was quite dubious about initial consumer spending estimates that came in at 4.4 percent. The revised number was lowered to 4.1 percent. Yet, due to rising gas prices, more and more disposable income will be directed toward fueling up cars, leaving less money for other purchases.
If consumers can't maintain their fourth-quarter spending pace — which was still the highest since 2006 — the effects of federal and state cutbacks will be all the more severe.
Higher gas prices will affect every facet of the economy, from production, to agriculture, to shipping, to transportation, to hiring, and on and on.
The economy grew 2.8 percent in 2010, the highest in five years. Yet, that was a relatively weak pace. From 1965 to 2008, US economic growth averaged 3.2 percent.
The other side of the coin is that 2010 was a marked improvement from 2009, the year the US experienced its worst economic output since the Great Depression.
Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of all US economic activity. However, if the unemployment problem doesn't turn around — and there are no indications that it will — consumers will be unable to spend the country out of its doldrums.
Even if unemployment were virtually cut in half for all of 2011 — coming down to 5 percent — it would only lower the jobless rate by one percentage point.
The economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month just to absorb the annual population increase and the entrance of new people into the workforce, such as college grads.
That gives you some perspective on the kind of problem we're up against.
Moreover, newly created jobs tend to be lower-paying than those they've replaced.
Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, says that many of the jobs being created don't match the pay, the hours, or the benefits of the 8.75 million positions that vanished in the recession.
These lower wages and salaries will limit consumer spending and economic growth.
That's why it's hard to imagine consumer spending being hearty enough to reignite the economy, or that economic growth will maintain a healthy pace.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Congress Robbed Social Security And Doesn't Want To Pay It Back
Last year, for the first time since its creation in 1935, Social Security received less money through payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits.
And this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that Social Security will collect $45 billion less in payroll taxes than it pays out in retirement, disability and survivor benefits.
Most disturbingly, the CBO says that Social Security is now officially cash negative.
However, during the intervening 75 years, Social Security collected about $2.5 trillion more than it paid out. Those surplus funds were used to buy special bonds from the U.S. Treasury, creating the so-called Social Security Trust Fund.
That surplus amounted to a loan from the people to the government.
But the government spent all that money on various other budget items — every penny of it. And now that the Baby Boomers (a quarter of the population) have begun retiring, that debt will have to be paid back by the federal government from its general expenditures — the annual budget.
While the idea of slashing Social Security is now being discussed in Washington, the politicians should remember that American workers have already paid an excess of $2.5 trillion into that system. To meet the anticipated higher retirement costs of the baby boom, workers and their employers contributed more than was needed over the past few decades to meet current costs.
That money is now owed to them. They expect to be paid back. The problem is that the money is gone. It's all been spent.
All that's left is the "full faith and credit of the United States," whatever that's worth at this point. Nothing remains but a giant pile of IOUs.
The reality is that, to this point, Social Security has not contributed one penny to the debt. Instead, Social Security ran up a $2.5 trillion surplus, which the government looted and spent.
The problems in the system are only poised to worsen. The payroll tax — a 6.2 percent tax paid by both workers and employers that funds Social Security — was cut by Congress and the president late last year, even as Social Security revenues had already been reduced by chronically high unemployment.
The lost revenue is supposed to be repaid to Social Security from general revenue funds, meaning it will add to the growing national debt. Such behavior just continued our government's decades-long trend of making promises that it cannot keep.
There are fewer workers paying into the system today, and millions more who have taken pay cuts or who can only find part-time jobs, which is also trimming revenues.
According to the CBO, Social Security will post nearly $600 billion in deficits over the next decade as the economy struggles to recover and millions of Baby Boomers enter retirement.
At present, more than 54 million people receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits from Social Security. Monthly payments average $1,076. But the number of retirees will swell over the next two decades due to the demographic bubble known as the Baby Boomers.
What many Republicans, and perhaps even some Democrats, are now proposing is that the government shouldn't have to pay back all of the $2.5 trillion in surplus Social Security funds that it essentially stole from the American people.
With that $2.5 trillion surplus, Social Security would remain fully solvent until 2037. Thereafter, it would still be able to pay out 78% of benefits owed.
Due to government recklessness, some combination of tax hikes, benefit cuts, or an increased retirement age is coming. The present retirement age is 66, and it is already slated to move to 67 for those born after 1960.
But such measures wouldn't have to be enacted any time soon if not for the absolutely epic case of grand larceny committed against the American people by their own government, which has robbed them blind.
And to now hear politicians complaining that the American people actually expect to be repaid is beyond the pale. It is simply outrageous.
Yet, it's reasonable to ask where a government so deeply in debt — to the tune of more than $14 trillion, and counting — will ever find that money.
The federal budget deficit will surge to a record $1.5 trillion this year. Unemployment remains high, as do associated benefit costs. A record number of Americans — 1 in 7 — are on food stamps. And the Bush-era tax cuts were extended, even as government revenues were already in decline.
The nation is also still fighting two wars, which President Obama — unlike his predecessor — actually lists in his budget. Those war costs will be with us for decades to come, long after the wars have finally ended.
As it stands, the government is already borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends. The bipartisan legislation passed in December that extended Bush-era tax cuts, provided unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, and a 2 percent payroll tax cut this year, will add almost $400 billion to this year's deficit, according to the CBO.
The government will soon face a funding crisis. Major budget cuts need to be soon initiated.
But before politicians even think about touching Social Security they need to significantly cut the single largest budget item or expenditure — defense and Homeland Security. Taken together, the two added up to $706.4 billion in the fiscal 2010 budget.
Yet, money for the Energy Department to work on the nation's nuclear arsenal, the Selective Service, healthcare for war veterans, and other defense-related spending pushes the total far higher.
In fact, about 58 percent of all discretionary funding is defense related, according to Donald M. Snow, Professor Emeritus at the University of Alabama.
The defense and security budget needs to be cut in half. We would still spend more than any other nation, and still maintain the world's most powerful military. But we need to recall most of the 500,000 military personnel, stationed on over 700 military bases, in more than 150 nations around the world.
Our military footprint is far too big. We're bleeding ourselves to death.
Additionally, research shows that military spending is robbing jobs from the private sector. Years of persistently bloated defense spending is draining resources from the productive economy.
In real dollars defense spending today is 13 percent higher than during the Korean War, 33 percent higher than during the Vietnam War, and 23 percent higher than under President Reagan.
There is indeed fat to be cut from the federal budget, but it isn't found in Social Security. The program should have the benefit of a $2.5 trillion surplus that the politicians looted from the system. Asking the American people to now accept cuts to that program — to accept this blatant theft — is unacceptable and should not be tolerated.
As Americans for Tax Reform noted, "Department of Defense spending, in particular, has been provided protected status that has isolated it from serious scrutiny."
While defense spending has long been viewed as sacrosanct, that is no longer so. There is now a large chorus of deficit fighters, antiwar activists, Tea Partiers, and libertarians who all want to shrink the Pentagon budget.
Try finding large groups of Americans similarly in favor of cutting Social Security, arguably the most popular government program in American history.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Higher Fuel Prices Driving Demand For Small Cars
Every driver has surely noticed the continual rise of gas prices over the last few months. And due to rising global oil demand, that trend is expected to continue.
The inability to match supply and demand is pushing up both oil and gas prices.
The International Energy Agency says that global oil and liquid fuels consumption grew by an estimated 2.8 million barrels per day in 2010, to 87.8 million barrels per day, the second largest annual increase in at least 30 years. And it foresees consumption rising to 89.3 million barrels per day this year.
Though global oil consumption had slowed during the recession, it is now higher than before the economic downturn.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that world oil markets will continue tightening over the next two years.
That's because the EIA projects that world oil consumption will grow by an annual average of 1.5 million barrels per day through 2012.
At the same time, the EIA expects the growth in supply from non-OPEC countries to average about 0.3 million barrels per day this year, and to remain flat in 2012.
Consequently, the decisions of US car-buyers are being driven by rising gas prices. According to the latest sales figures, many buyers are trending toward smaller, more fuel-efficient cars and hybrids.
For example, Toyota sold almost 11,000 Prius hybrids in the U.S. in January, an increase of more than 25% from a year earlier; Nissan sold 47% more Versas in January from a year earlier; BMW's Mini Cooper sales were up more than 22%; and sales of the Ford Focus jumped 41%.
With gas prices expected to range from $3.50 to $4.00 throughout the nation this year, the demand for small cars should remain strong. In response, automakers are launching an assortment of smaller, more fuel-efficient models.
A survey by Kelley Blue Book found that 61% of the respondents say that they have changed their driving habits as a result of rising gas prices, and many indicate they are considering making trade-offs on their next vehicle choice to save money on fuel.
According to the survey, 48% said they would consider a smaller engine size in their next vehicle to deal with rising gas prices; 36% said they would pick a smaller vehicle, such as moving from a mid-size car to a compact car; and 31% said they would move to a more fuel-efficient auto category.
Kelley Blue Book said consumers start to think about changing auto buying habits once gasoline prices cross about $3 a gallon. When it hits $4, about 80% of consumers say gas prices will alter their purchase decisions. And by $5 a gallon, the sentiment is almost universal.
So, based on current trends, from now on the vast majority of car buyers will be factoring gas prices into their purchase decisions.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Hirsch Report Reveals US Totally Unprepared for Peak Oil Era
"When oil production goes into decline, it's going to be a defining issue for humanity." — Robert Hirsch
Robert L. Hirsch is the lead author of a stunning report — Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management — written for the US Dept. of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE, NETL).
The report, published in February 2005, is more commonly known as the "Hirsch Report." This extraordinary document examines the time frame and implications of Peak Oil, and looks at what preparations need to be undertaken at a national level to mitigate its impacts.
Written by Hirsch and two colleagues, the report's introduction reads as follows:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
And from there the report goes on to outline the numerous, and rather grave, troubles that lie ahead as a result of peaking oil production. It's the kind of stuff that can keep you awake at night, questioning the future. What's most troubling is that virtually nothing has been done since the report's release to prepare for this looming watershed.
It's been six years since the Hirsch Report warned of a global problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors forecast "protracted economic hardship" for the United States and the rest of the world. They warned that Peak Oil is a problem that deserves "immediate, serious attention."
Yet, the media haven't given this topic the coverage it clearly warrants. As a result, the public is largely unaware of this pending crisis. Apparently, fear of initiating a panic takes precedence over careful planning and public policy.
The subject of Peak Oil is a tough one, because its implications are so dire. But it is by no means a cryptic or fringe concept. If you've seen the documentary "A Crude Awakening," you know that this topic is a widely accepted reality in oil industries and government ministries across the globe. The film is chock full of interviews with petroleum geologists, former OPEC officials, energy analysts, politicians, and political analysts — all of whom recognize the gravity of the situation.
Last year, the Dept. of Energy publicly stated that Peak Oil is all but upon us. And a report from the U.S. military paints an alarming picture of future oil supplies; it predicts that global production will peak within two years, and there could be shortages by 2015.
The sad truth is that new oil-field discoveries peaked in the late 1960s, and that's why petroleum companies are going to such extremes as to drill in 2-3 miles of ocean water to retrieve oil. The more difficult it becomes to access oil, the more expensive it becomes.
Everything in our modern society is oil-dependent — from food production and distribution, to textiles and manufacturing, to the transportation of all goods and people.
The Hirsch Report notes that over the past century the US economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil and that Peak Oil will present the US with economic losses that will be measured in the trillions of dollars.
According to the report, peaking oil production will be abrupt, providing little time to evolve. Consequently, the repercussions will be revolutionary. And without massive mitigation, the report warns, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
Such mitigation efforts will require abundant preparation and substantial time, the report warns. Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years. Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade. However, initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
Aggressive fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production are the recommended means to provide substantial mitigation.
Yet, even though this essential document was issued six years ago, little to nothing in regard to mitigation has been done on a governmental or national level.
Mr. Hirsch outlined the challenges ahead in a 2009 interview with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO).
"We found that because the decline rate in world oil production was going to be in multiple percents per year, it was going to take a very long time for mitigation to catch up to the decline in world oil production. Basically, the best we found was that starting a worldwide crash program 20 years before the problem hits avoid serious problems. If you started 10 years before-hand, you are in a lot of trouble; and if you wait to the last minute until the problem is obvious, then you're in deep trouble for much longer than a decade. As it turns out, we no longer have the 10 or 20 years that were two of our scenarios."
An expanding global population, coupled with increasing living standards and energy consumption in the developing world (particularly China and India) are all elevating the demand for oil.
Yet, as a finite resource, the supply of oil is fixed and will not be able to keep up with rising demand.
This is a point the Hirsch Report makes clear:
World oil demand is expected to grow 50 percent by 2025. To meet that demand, ever-larger volumes of oil will have to be produced. Since oil production from individual reservoirs grows to a peak and then declines, new reservoirs must be continually discovered and brought into production to compensate for the depletion of older reservoirs. If large quantities of new oil are not discovered and brought into production somewhere in the world, then world oil production will no longer satisfy demand. That point is called the peaking of world conventional oil production....
Some economists expect higher oil prices and improved technologies to continue to provide ever-increasing oil production for the foreseeable future. Most geologists disagree because they do not believe that there are many huge new oil reservoirs left to be found. Accordingly, geologists and other observers believe that supply will eventually fall short of growing world demand — and result in the peaking of world conventional oil production.
Though we may never fully run out of oil, we will eventually run out of cheap oil. That's when life as we've known it changes immutably.
Mr. Hirsch's expertise and advanced pedigree accord him unimpeachable authority, and that's exactly what compelled the government to commission his Peak Oil report. The fact that the Hirsch report was produced at the request of the US Department of Energy lends it all due credibility.
Hirsch started his career in the field of nuclear energy, did fusion research and ultimately managed the government's fusion program. Over the years, he also worked on renewable energy sources and managed the federal renewables program. He then went on to work in the oil industry, where he managed research on long range refining and synthetic fuels, and later managed upstream research and development—the exploration and production of oil and gas.
However, despite being commissioned by the DOE, the Hirsch Report was buried by the department because it believed the American public could not deal with the idea that its way of life might be threatened. The DOE simply determined that the public couldn't handle the report because it was just too painful.
"When they saw the final report, it shocked them, even though they could see what was coming," said Hirsch in a 2009 interview with ASPO. "When the report was done, management at NETL really didn't know what to do with it because it was so shocking and the implications were so significant. Finally, the director decided that she would sign off on it because she was retiring and couldn't be hurt, or so I was told. The report didn't get widely publicized. It somehow was picked up by a high school someplace in California; eventually NETL put it on their website."
The media didn't help. Instead of running excerpts and summaries of the Hirsch Report, US newspapers and newsmagazines have generally ignored it.
In late May 2005, Hirsch presented the substance of the report at the annual ASPO Workshop in Lisbon, Portugal to an audience of about 300. The event received virtually no press coverage in the US.
However, in the six years since the report was formally unveiled, the Internet chatter has never waned. Thank goodness for the blogosphere and alternative media.
When the report was issued, Hirsch didn't take a position on when Peak Oil would occur. Hirsch says that when he got into the subject he "knew enough about the uncertainties and unknowns to feel... that I could not make a reasoned judgment early on."
Over time, as his research developed and evolved, that changed.
"I spent a number of years listening to what other people had to say, studying their analyses, and looking at what was happening in the real world before I came to a conclusion for myself... I wasn't about to take a position on timing without having a lot of evidence that would support my position. And so it wasn't until about [late 2007, early 2008] that I began to home in on the likely timing of the decline of world oil production being sometime within the next five years."
We've been in a race against time for years, and yet our government has showed no sense of urgency. That lack of preparation will haunt us, says Hirsch.
"[This] is going to be very difficult because people don't like to hear bad news, and this is terrible news. And as it sinks in, markets will drop and there will be an immediate recessionary reaction because people will realize that this is such a horrendous problem that having a positive outlook on employment and the economy is just simply unrealistic."
Large scale events have a way of speeding up, especially when leaders are not paying attention. Complex systems can break down and unsustainable systems always breakdown. The implications of Peal Oil will likely be sudden and abrupt.
The Hirsch report projects that if Middle East reserves are much less than stated, life in a post peak oil world will be even worse than projected. Such a worst-case scenario may have been realized just last week.
According to leaked confidential cables from the US embassy in Riyadh, the US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of crude oil, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices from escalating.
A senior Saudi government oil executive warns that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300 billion barrels — or nearly 40% — and that this was done to spur foreign investment.
At this point, waiting for the federal government to act is futile. It's now time for local communities and even individuals to act and come up with their own plans.
The situation will not suddenly improve. It is only poised to worsen.
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
US Manufacturing: The Backbone Of Our Economy Has Been Broken
For many decades, manufacturing was the backbone of the US economy. Manufacturing allowed people with only high school degrees to become part of the middle class, to buy a home, to buy a new car every five to 10 years, and to even put their children through college.
But over the past three decades, US manufacturing jobs have been steadily outsourced to workers overseas. Millions of good, blue-collar jobs — the kind that grew the middle class in America — have vanished, taking a serious toll on our economy.
In fact, largely due to outsourcing, the number of workers in manufacturing dropped by one-third over the past decade.
The absence of a solid manufacturing base doesn't just mean fewer good jobs for Americans; it also means we have to import more goods and have fewer of them to export. That combination results in billions of dollars leaving the US each and every month.
Manufacturing has declined from 14.2% of GDP in 2000 to just 11% of total output today. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2009 US GDP was $14.2 trillion. Manufacturing contributed just $1.5 trillion to the total.
As a result of our shrunken manufacturing base, it's no surprise that the US has led the world in imports for decades or that exports now represent just 12% of our economy. It's a bad combination. The US now has a massive trade deficit and is the world's biggest debtor nation.
A wider trade deficit creates a drag on economic growth because more of the nation's consumption is coming from overseas rather than from domestic production.
So, why have US corporations slashed so many American jobs, only to hire workers in foreign nations instead? It's simple; money.
The average wage in developed economies is about 10 times the average level in emerging economies. That's the inherent flaw in "free trade". Simply put, due to higher wages, it costs a lot more to produce goods in the US than it does in developing countries.
Due to the impact this is having on their economies, last August, the National Conference of State Legislatures called for major reform of US trade pact model. It's now clear that free trade isn't all it was touted to be.
Here's a rather simple formula: No jobs = no spending = no growth = lower tax revenue = higher deficits = higher debt = higher tax rates & interest rates = no growth.
But it's not just manufacturing jobs that have been lost. Millions of workers — like file clerks, ticket agents and autoworkers — have been displaced by technological advances and international trade. Millions of other jobs, such as clerical and administrative positions, printing machine operators and travel agents have all been eliminated.
Most of these occupations will never come back, regardless of what happens to the US economy. The skills of these workers are now largely irrelevant. Even if the recession hadn't occurred, employers still would have eliminated many of these jobs through attrition or buyouts. The recession only accelerated the process.
Though the federal Trade Act allows workers who've lost jobs to get retraining for higher-skilled jobs, a 2006 federal study found that most workers who do take retraining benefits get lower pay in their new jobs.
That's a truly sad state of affairs. Such a trend will only hasten the shrinking of what remains of the American middle class.
In a 2007 paper, Princeton economist Alan Blinder estimated that 22% to 29% of US jobs are vulnerable to being "off-shored" in the next 10 to 20 years. What may come as a surprise is that many jobs requiring a college education are the most vulnerable.
As the old saying goes, constant change is here to stay. From now on, workers will have to be nimble, adaptable and quick to adjust to employment trends.
The days of going straight from high school to a lifetime job at the factory, followed by a decent pension upon retirement, are long gone. Most workers will have numerous jobs, and perhaps even multiple careers.
The oft-repeated claim that the average American worker will have seven different careers in his or her lifetime is unfounded. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Labor Department's data arm, doesn't track lifetime careers. In fact, the BLS website notes that "no consensus has emerged on what constitutes a career change."
However, BLS economist Chuck Pierret has been conducting a study to better assess U.S. workers' job stability over time, interviewing 10,000 individuals, first surveyed in 1979, when group members were between 14 and 22 years old. So far, members of the group have held 10.8 jobs, on average, between ages 18 and 42, using the latest data available.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, the typical American worker's tenure with his or her current employer was 3.8 years from 1996 to 2008, the latest available data. Given that a person may work for 45 years, or so, it's easy to assume that he or she may have 10 or more jobs in their lifetime.
It's one thing if this is the result of personal choices. However, in many cases it isn't. Regardless, is not the hallmark of worker stability.
Free trade has been a double-edged sword for the US. Though it has brought American consumers lower prices, it has also cost many of them their jobs. Being an import-driven, consumption-based economy is not working. It has led to a massive trade deficit, massive debt, and millions upon millions of outsourced American jobs.
If Americans are willing to pay more for American-made goods, US manufacturing could begin again in earnest. We could consume what we produce and recirculate our money back into our own economy, instead of sending it overseas. Such a transition would shrink the trade deficit, though much of it is driven by oil imports.
Clearly, the status quo isn't working. At present, we are on the road to nowhere, or perhaps even worse.
If this situation doesn't change soon, the US will be facing multiple and uncorrectable crises of rampant and unyielding unemployment, greater poverty and income disparity (already the highest in the developed world), plus the eventual and inevitable bankruptcy of our nation.
After all, given its relatively low export base, where will the US continue getting all that money for all those imports?
As Stein's Law famously concludes, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
Monday, February 07, 2011
The Reagan Myth
Ronald Reagan is famously remembered for cutting taxes in 1981, his first year in the Oval Office.
However, Republicans, who worship Reagan in hero-like fashion, often forget (or neglect to mention) that Reagan was a consummate political pragmatist who subsequently raised taxes numerous times during the remainder of his tenure in the White House.
Former Republican Senator Alan Simpson, a friend and colleague of Reagan's, notes that the president raised taxes a total of 11 times and calls Reagan "a total realist as to politics."
Due to the same political roadblocks that still exist today, Reagan was unable to come up with the spending cuts necessary to pay for his historic 1981 tax cut program. Consequently, those cuts blew a massive hole in the federal budget.
Though Reagan oversaw a modest reduction in domestic spending, it was dwarfed by a large buildup in the Pentagon budget.
Subsequently, the pragmatic president wisely — though regretfully — raised taxes multiple times. Ultimately, the repeated hikes unwound about half the savings of the '81 cut.
Former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman says it was a tough decision for Reagan.
"He wasn't very happy about it. He did it reluctantly. But at the end of the day, the math was overwhelming," says Stockman.
Reagan was stymied by the popularity of entitlements and the lack of political will to significantly cut those programs in order to pay for all his tax cuts.
"The White House and President Reagan himself retreated within three days when it became clear the enormous political resistance that would occur if you were going to cut entitlements," Stockman remembers.
The president also recognized that he couldn't significantly increase defense spending while simultaneously reducing government revenues.
What's often lost in all of the conservative idolatry of Reagan is that he was a realist, not an ideologue.
"Ronald Reagan was never afraid to raise taxes," says historian Douglas Brinkley, editor of Reagan's diaries. "And so there's a false mythology out there about Reagan as this conservative president who came in and just cut taxes and trimmed federal spending in a dramatic way. It didn't happen that way. It's false."
Faced with either raising taxes or an even bigger federal debt, Reagan chose to raise taxes. That's an important lesson at a time when the nation is facing a much larger debt — not just in terms of total dollars, but also in debt-to-GDP ratio.
With a stalled economy, a shrunken tax base and two ongoing wars, government revenues and expenditures are moving in opposite directions.
The bipartisan Deficit Reduction Commission recently warned that the deficit problem cannot be solved without a combination of spending cuts and revenue increases.
The latter may be in the form of tax hikes, or a restructuring of the tax code that streamlines and simplifies the system, while eliminating all deductions, credits and write offs. Such an overhaul could simultaneously lower rates, raise more revenue and level the playing field for everyone.
But to do that, the Republicans need to overcome their knee-jerk opposition to raising revenues, even if it means raising taxes, at least until the deficit is wiped out.
Upholding the Reagan myth gets in the way, says Stockman.
"I wouldn't call it merely airbrushing. I would call it outright revisionism, if not fabrication of history."
Along with cutting entitlements, raising taxes is one of the third rails of American politics. Just ask George H.W. Bush.
Reagan was the exception. Brinkley is amazed that Reagan somehow managed to raise taxes without paying a political price.
"He seemed to get away with both. He seemed to really be kind of a centrist, big government deficit spender, but also be seen as a budget cutter. And it's because his persona was so great."
After all, Reagan was known as the 'Great Communicator" and it served him well.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Fourth-Quarter GDP: Reality or Myth, Sustainable or Unsustainable?
Though this was below the consensus estimate for 3.6% growth, it was an improvement from the 2.6% pace in the third quarter and 1.7% in the second quarter.
Much of the growth was attributed to consumer spending, which grew at a 4.4% rate. So, at first blush, it seems US consumers have returned from their hibernation.
But before you get too excited, let's explore a few important facts.
First, there are roughly 15 million unemployed Americans at present. And 17.3% of American workers were either unemployed or under-employed, meaning they can only find part-time work even though they are seeking full-time employment.
Second, due to the Christmas season, the fourth quarter is typically the most robust for retailers. According to the National Retail Federation, for some retailers, the holiday season can represent anywhere between 25-40% of annual sales.
Additionally, real income rose a paltry 1.7% in the third quarter. Which leads us to ask, where did consumers find all that extra spending money?
Well, savings dropped by a notable 0.5% in the quarter. And, according to Investment Company Institute, investors withdrew a whopping $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in first seven months of 2010.
So, the draw down in savings accounts and mutual funds allowed for increased spending, even though wages and incomes were so tight.
Consumer activity comprises the bulk of the US economy — some $10 trillion of the roughly $14 trillion total. To put this into perspective, that $10 trillion is approximately half of the entire global consumer market. The combined BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — account for less than one-third of that amount.
While consumer spending averaged 64% of GDP between 1950 and 1980, it has now reached 70% of GDP. Most of this was, and is, funded by debt.
Household debt in the US grew from 69% of our gross domestic product at the end of 1998 to 97% of GDP by the end of 2009.
We can see that the US embarked on a decade-long debt binge. And now the question is, how much longer can this last?
After the financial collapse in the fall of 2008, and the subsequent recession that lasted for six consecutive quarters, it seemed as if all that rampant consumer spending — and the debt that fueled it — had finally come to an end.
The Great Recession — which officially lasted 18 months, from December 2007 through June 2009 — was the longest since World War II. Its effects are still bitter and enduring for millions of Americans.
According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, 1.53 million US consumers filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors in 2010, up from 1.4 million in 2009. Consumer bankruptcies rose 9% in 2010, and the ABI expects that filings will keep climbing this year given high debts and weak incomes.
With all of this in mind, it's reasonable to ask if the initial fourth quarter GDP number was in fact accurate, or if it will later be revised downward, as so often happens.
And even if the 3.2% reading is ultimately found to be accurate, can it hold up in the first quarter of 2011? Now that the Christmas spending binge is over, can consumers continue to carry the US economy at that same pace?
My guess is no.
It's important to remember that the government is facing a massive and rapidly expanding debt exceeding $14 trillion. The last election was largely about the economy and the debt.
Consequently, the new Republican majority in Congress has pledged to slash government spending. Though long overdue, such spending cuts will create a major drag on the economy.
If consumers feel the hangover of all that Christmas spending — reflected in their recent credit card statements — and decide to tighten their purse strings as a result, the combination could be devastating.
When government and citizens attempt to pay down debt at the same time, the result is depression and deflation, which would make our debt problems even worse.
We'll know more in April, when the initial first-quarter GDP figure is announced. But it will hardly be surprising if the pace dips below the fourth quarter level, which was celebrated by many media pundits and talking heads.
At this point, everyone is desperate for good news. But we shouldn't fool ourselves. This kind of GDP growth will have to become a trend before I become a believer.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Japan Facing Terminal Debt Crisis
First it was Dubai. Then it was Greece. Then Ireland. Then Portugal. And there are also legitimate concerns about Belgium, Austria, Spain and Italy.
But those nation's debt problems are small potatoes compared to the burden that Japan is facing.
Over the two decades between 1989 and 2009, Japan's government debt exploded from 66% of gross domestic product to a whopping 226% — a staggering debt load that is by far the largest percentage of any industrialized nation.
Japan has been trapped in a deflationary spiral for the last two decades, and there are no signs of it ending any time soon. Despite massive government stimulus, the nation cannot seem to grow its economy, and therefore it's debt-to-GDP ratio just keeps expanding.
In 1968, Japan overtook Germany to become the world's second largest economy, behind the US. And it held onto that position for 42 years before finally being eclipsed by China last year. It was a historic sea change.
The combination of a shrinking economy and an ever-expanding debt were significant reasons that Standard & Poor's lowered Japan's credit rating last week, as it did in 2002. The downgrade pushed Japan's long-term rating from AA to AA-minus.
But the move was a long time coming. The writing was on the wall for many years.
Japan had been repeatedly warned to get its fiscal house in order. As it had previously, S&P noted that Japan has no "coherent strategy" to tackle problems that have been decades in the making.
"The downgrade reflects our appraisal that Japan's government debt ratios--already among the highest for rated sovereigns--will continue to rise further than we envisaged before the global economic recession hit the country and will peak only in the mid-2020s."
It seems that events have gotten away from the Japanese government and may have finally spiraled out of control.
Japan's public debt is racing toward 1 quadrillion yen, or $12 trillion. The good news is that the vast majority of that debt (95%) is owed domestically to banks, insurance companies and pension funds — not to foreigners. Japanese citizens hold an extraordinarily high household savings of $15 trillion, which has also allowed the government to borrow at home.
As Japan's economy stagnated in the late 1980s, the government stepped in and increased spending to offset private sector declines. But the economy continued to sputter even as government debt increased precipitously.
What once seemed impossible now seems inevitable; Japan appears headed for a full-fledged debt crisis and possibly a currency devaluation. When such a moment arrives, the impact will be felt globally and could push the world's economic system to the brink, triggering a global depression.
With one of the oldest populations in the world, Japan's problems are only mounting and remain poised to worsen.
Last year, Japan's population fell by a record number, as deaths exceeded births. The country's life expectancy is among the highest in the world, while its birth rate is among the lowest, a miserable combination.
People 65 and older make up about a quarter (23%) of Japan's population and the Baby Boomers are nearing retirement. By 2050, the government projects that fully 40% of the population will be over 65.
As it is, the percentage of retirees in Japan is three times that of the rest of the world, which is putting enormous stress on the retirement system. And it will only get worse.
Due to the combination of a low birth rate and long life expectancy, Japan's population has declined in each of the last four years. That will only exacerbate an already existing problem; there are too few workers to replace retirees and it is resulting in a shrinking tax base.
The poor economy and dour national mood have led to a very low birthrate; there were just over 1 million births last year in a population of just under 126 million.
In addition to shrinking the tax base, Japan's aging population is expected to shrink consumption annually from now on. At the same time, the majority of the national budget is already funded by deficit spending. What this means is that the already shrinking tax base and economy will get progressively smaller still.
As the tide of Japanese retirees continues to rise, more of them will be pulling money out of savings accounts and government pension funds. And as Japanese citizens start selling off government bonds to support their retirement, the government will be forced to rely on external, or foreign, lenders in the bond market.
However, with a debt load so perilously high, and structural problems so deep, the market will demand higher yields that could become crippling to the Japanese government.
Japan has never had to rely on the global bond markets. If it had to pay the same interest rates as the other G-7 nations, its interest costs would exceed revenues. Yet Japan's dire fiscal situation indicates that it should already be paying considerably higher rates than the other G-7 nations.
For example, Germany currently pays 2.25% for 3-year bonds, 2% for 5-year bonds and 2.5% for 10-year bonds. On the other hand, Japan is currently paying 1.4%, 0.5% and 1.2% for the same bonds.
At present, there is a total disconnect in the bond market that doesn't reflect Japan's dire fiscal and economic situations.
Japan's current debt payments are about $244 billion a year. Kyle Bass, who runs the Dallas-based hedge fund Hayman Advisors, has calculated that every percentage point in higher yields adds another $125 billion in annual interest expenses.
So if investors demand just an extra two percentage points above current yields — bringing Japan in line with Germany and the US — it would add $250 billion in annual interest payments to the country's debt figure. That would consume Japan's entire $489 billion in revenue.
Japan is the proverbial canary in the coal mine, and it serves as a warning to other industrialized nations also carrying unsustainable debts — including the US.
Once the bond market loses confidence in Japan, it's game over. The effects of that moment will be felt worldwide, and it will be seismic.
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International Arts Festival: Hollywood royalty Isabella Rossellini set for Belfast stage
Belfast International Arts Festival will be welcoming Italian actress Isabella Rossellini to the Grand Opera House later this year.
The screen icon will appear on the Belfast stage on October 31 2018 with her new one-woman show Link Link.
An Irish premiere, the brand new one-woman (and one dog) show by the Golden Globe-nominated actress and filmmaker, Link Link is a monologue inspired by the animal world, based on scientific research with a comic twist.
The audience will get to see enduring style icon Rossellini transform herself into Aristotle, René Descartes, a medieval theologian, Harvard Professor BF Skinner and Charles Darwin to explore, in her own intriguing way, what distinguishes humans from animals.
Rossellini's monologue will be accompanied by projections of her short comic films, home movies, photos, and drawings whilst her dog Pan, an outstanding supporting artist plays various animals assisted by puppeteer and animal handler Schuyler Beeman.
Belfast International Arts Festival Director, Richard Wakely, said: "The Festival is honored to host one of Europe's most versatile and celebrated female performers.
"Isabella Rossellini has graced the screen and stage for many years and her new work, Link Link is an exquisite and comical tour de force that is also thought provoking in its approach to enhancing our appreciation of the animal world."
Tickets are available now at www.belfastinternationalartsfestival.com.
With over 120 event including 12 premiers, the full programme will launch on the 16 August 2018.
Belfast Telegraph Digital


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CCTV images have emerged of a restaurant owner desperately trying to jam the door to keep out a London Bridge attacker.
Sergio Farina clung on to the door of his busy bar, Arthur Hooper's, as a terrorist tried to force his way in, intent on stabbing terrified diners in Borough Market.
The footage shows people piling into the bar before Sergio shuts the door, trying to keep everyone safe on Saturday night.
As an attacker tries to make his way in, the brave Spaniard used the force of his body to keep him out and protect the 28 people inside.
Seven people were tragically killed and 48 others injured nearby in the tragedy.
The CCTV footage which has emerged from Arthur Hooper's shows Sergio and his staff urging customers inside to hide.
An attacker wearing a hoax suicide vest repeatedly tries to pull the door open from the other side, just inches away from dozens of customers.
The worker then momentarily opens the door to let in another man to safety before slamming it shut again.
An attacker wearing a hoax suicide vest repeatedly tries to pull the door open from the other side, just inches away from dozens of customers.
But Sergio single-handedly pushes against the door.
Eventually the knife-wielding terrorist give up and continue down the street.
Sergio said he began lowering the shutters when he saw the terrorists, and that "all he could see was a guy with dynamite," IBT reports.
"We did not know how many terrorists there were and whether they would return," he said, before modestly adding: "You do not even think about it. I could have left, as everyone did, but I would have left 28 people behind."
Arthur Hooper's announced on Twitter that they would be closed today.
Their tweet thanked everyone for their messages and support and reassured people that "our people at Arthur Hooper's are safe".
It read: "Our thoughts and love go out to Borough Market, our London Bridge neighbours, all those affected, and their friends and families.
"We are so proud of our incredible staff and the emergency services who kept our customers safe and calm."
Many stories of solidarity and heroic actions have emerged since the tragic events of Saturday night.
A brave woman also used her own body to hold shut a restaurant door as terrorists tried to break in during the attacks, it was reported.
Taxi driver Aksha Patel recalled the selflessly heroic act he said was carried out by one of his passengers.
The woman was part of a couple who had been at the Black and Blue steak restaurant near London Bridge when three men got out of a van and began stabbing people.
According to eyewitness reports the attackers had tried to get access to the venue as terrified diners were inside.
Another witness described how the terrorists did eventually manage to get inside and carnage ensued.
Police confirmed the three terrorists were shot dead at the scene closely after 10pm.
Latest reports say Molotov cocktails were found in the back of the van used by the terrorists.


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Would you Consider an Open Marriage? What's Your Opinion? Do you Think it's Wrong? How do You feel?
I have new topics just bubbling around in my head to share with you. The one for today is: Would you consider an open marriage
I was reading a part of a bio from JujuMama. I will read almost anything even if I don't agree with it. So as I read her bio..she shared her story about how she made peace with the idea of her husband's choice and eventually hers.
An open marriage ..well the road to this new type of relationship seemed bumpy almost not possible but her husband was very persistent. He had a soo much love that he wanted to share it with another as well with the promise that it would not take away from his love for her. Check out her story ..it's quite interesting..
So after reading that story I knew I had to find out what the men I knew felt about this subject. So I went deep undercover and began my research..One of my friends, we will call him 'T' for short. T was not even open to his wife flirting with other mens. Calm down ladies I am not saying that I agree or disagree with him. However, I was joking around with one of my male friends and so I thought he would be my test subject. Of course he has no idea that he is..shhhhs – Don't tell, okay.
Is it wrong to share your husband/wife with a secondary partner? Well I was honestly shocked that a man (member of the male species) would not like the idea of having sex with multiple women in the open. He stated that it would not be good to live this lifestyle with his wife knowing and he definitely would agree to his wife having a secondary partner. I had to know more so I push a little more. I wanted to know why not? I mean most married men have cheated at least once on their wife. He remarked that it wouldn't be the same if she(his wife) knew.
Well that was shocking but when I asked what if your wife wanted to embrace the lifestyle? Well that was a definite NO. NO. No…No. So ladies, if your going to marry a guy like this …You won't be able to have two men for if that's your flavor..
Now if you have a personality that you have hidden from your girlfriend/boyfriend or fiance. Now's the time to discuss it with your partner before you solidify the arrangement. Most people have two personalities and some are hard to hide? Well it takes a long time to share all of yourself with anyone..
Tell me your opinions about this topic? Talk2Me..
This is Coyfee signing off…..


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My problem is rather peculiar, and a google search proved unsuccessful.
I built my PC using an old server cabinet. So there wasn't provision for front ports. Nor did this motherboard come supplied with any panel for the front. So for 6 years now I've had to reach around to the back and swap speakers for headphones and vice versa. I had no complaint with the effort put in. But in the process, I damaged the plugs on both speakers, and headphones, and was left no option but to purchase new ones.
Anyway, I'm looking for a solution of sorts, I haven't a clue if what I have in mind is even possible, but figured you kind folks might have some answers.
My audio runs off an onboard Realtek AC 97. 5.1 capable, however running stereo speakers without woofer. I was wondering if there was a software method to have the front and rear ports transmit the same audio, so that I may plug my speakers into one and headphones into the other. Allow both to play at all times, my speakers have a simple mute button, and headphones a volume slider. Thus eliminate all plugging and unplugging.
I'm not hopeful, this sounds far fetched. But any input would be much appreciated. Thanks.
Gokul Lalwani.


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Organizations across all industries are increasingly recognizing the strategic value of leveraging leasing for their equipment and technology requirements. No matter what your industry, leasing will help your organization to:
— Pay only for the useful life of your technology and equipment as the pace of change continues to rapidly increase
— Use the most up-to-date versions of software and hardware, a necessity in order to remain cyber-secure in today's markets.
— Keep cash in reserve and convert your infrastructure requirements to a simplified monthly expense
This is great news and smart business.
We want you to know that when working with CoreTech, you are a relationship and not a transaction. We work closely with our clients to achieve the custom and flexible solutions they seek and are strategic partners across the entire lifecycle of the lease—from beginning to end. We don't walk away when the lease line is opened, we are with you at each point throughout the process and, as the Director of IT for a Fortune 500 Company noted:
The end of the lease is just as important as the beginning, and working with a lessor such as CoreTech Leasing who understands that is invaluable. Their exceptional service over the entire lease lifecycle is what sets them apart, builds relationships, and wins our business year after year.
Wherever you are in your procurement process, give the CoreTech team a call. We're here to be a resource over the long term and build relationships – not transactions.
To read the full newsletter, click here.


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DUBLIN / ACCESSWIRE / February 28, 2019 / CRH plc announces that, having completed two terms of three years as a Director, Don McGovern will step down from the Board at the conclusion of the Annual General Meeting on 25 April 2019.
Commenting on the retirement, Mr. Nicky Hartery, Chairman of CRH, said: "On behalfof the Board I would like to thank Don for his commitment to CRH over his sixyears on the Board, and in particular for his service as Senior IndependentDirector and as Chairman of the Remuneration Committee. We wish him everysuccess in the future."
For further information, please contact CRH plc at Dublin 404 1000 (+353 1 404 1000)
Frank Heisterkamp
Head of Investor Relations
CRH (LSE: CRH, ISE: CRG, NYSE: CRH) is a leading global diversified building materials group, employing 85,000 people at over 3,600 operating locations in 32 countries worldwide. CRH is the second largest building materials company worldwide and the largest in North America. The Group has leadership positions in Europe, where it is the largest heavyside materials business, as well as established strategic positions in the emerging economic regions of Asia and South America. CRH is committed to improving the built environment through the delivery of superior materials and products for the construction and maintenance of infrastructure, housing and commercial projects. A Fortune 500 company, CRH is a constituent member of the FTSE 100 index, the EURO STOXX 50 index, the ISEQ 20 and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) Europe. CRH's American Depositary Shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). CRH's market capitalisation at 31 January 2019 was approximately €20 billion. For more information visit www.crh.com.
Registered Office: No 12965. RegisteredOffice: 42 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2, R02 R279, Ireland
This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact firstname.lastname@example.com or visit www.rns.com.
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Knowledge, practical skills, creativity and tradition come together at the workstations located in the centre of the MobiVersum. Imaginative programmes encourage children, teens and families to take part in a variety of hands-on activities. From developing motor skills, to using tools and small machines, or exploring social issues, participants can discover the many different dimensions of creative processes. Everyone is welcome to test their skills and explore new and valuable experiences.
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Rey Lear
I trained as a class teacher from 1970 and, about that time, I became interested in transcendental meditation. Since then I have studied and practised many forms of meditation and relaxation exercises. My work as a primary teacher took me to Southampton and later to Leicester. Eventually, in 1982 we moved to Brackley where I taught primary class music in rural schools for many years.
Some time later I visited a hypnotherapist to help me with a sleeping problem and I became fascinated with the power and techniques of hypnotherapy. I decided to learn more about it and studied at Glenfield Hospital, Leicester for a year before qualifying with distinction.
I love having the opportunity to meet new people and to listen to their perspective on life. I find it very rewarding to be able to help people to resolve their difficulties.
» Download Rey Lear's Privacy Policy


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Low Doc Loans, officially known as 'Low Documentation Loans' are loans designed to help people who lack the necessary documentation secure a car loan. Often those who apply for a low doc car loan include sole traders or owners of small businesses who have difficulty in getting finance for a company vehicle.
Indeed, many of our self-employed clients find they don't have the financial documents they need to secure a traditional car loan. If you find yourself in this position then you may need a low doc car loan and this is where the experts at Pacific Auto Finance can help.
Our knowledgeable team can cut through the red tape that typically goes with securing car finance and we have a large range of low doc car loan products to choose from.
Low doc car finance is structured similar to full finance and is a flexible solution for ABN holders such as sole-traders or self-employed people. If you haven't completed a tax return or are waiting on funds or your accountant simply hasn't gotten your paperwork back to you, Pacific Auto Finance can help.
For more information, fill out the form below or call Pacific Auto Finance and speak to one of our knowledgeable consultants. We can get you past the loan approval stage and into your new car sooner.


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24" Ride-On CourtPac Roller *Best Price*
CourtPac quality design - Easy to operate and maintain. Features a 5.5 HP Honda engine and hydraulic transmission. We believe you will find the CourtPac the best designed, best engineered tennis court roller on the market. **CALL FOR SHIPPING PRICE**
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CourtPac Quality by Design
Easy to operate and maintain. We believe you will find the CourtPac the best designed, best engineered tennis court roller on the market today. Why?
It's Easy to Start
- The unit is equipped with a 5.5 HP Honda engine that starts on the first pull almost every time.
It's easy to operate
- Speed and direction are controlled with a hydraulic transmission that is smooth and responsive. This transmission comes from the lawn mowing industry where it has shown exceptional durability.
It's Easy to Steer
- The seat adjusts to position the driver where they can easily reach the handle bars and set their feet down on the large stable foot tray with traction tread. This means it requires very little strength or energy to maneuver the roller.
It's Easy to Maintain
- Just add oil! There are no chains or sprockets and the heavy-duty polyurethane scraper bars will last years before replacement is needed.
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- There is an emergency stop button, emergency break and a safety swith under the seat. Neutral safety switches prevent the roller from starting or jumping when in gear.
It's The Little Things
- The engine has been positioned on the roller to blow all exhaust fumes away from the driver. The scraper bars are polyurethane for quiet operation. The seat is large, cushioned and light colored to keep it from heating up in the hot sun. Even a cup holder has been included.
- All CourtPac rollers carry an industry best - 2 year warranty.
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The ActionStick lets you interact with your games like no other device before.
Last weeks ECTS may not have been a particularly earth shattering affair but there was one product that not only caught our eye but our hands and feet as well.
The ActionStick is an add-on for PlayStation 2 that enables users to 'get in the game' like never before. It is a stick that unfolds and stands up in front of you. It's covered with an array of sensors – eight in all, which detect your motion and translates it to your game character.
It works brilliantly with fighting games such as Tekken 4 and Soul Caliber and as response times are instant you really feel as if your part of the game. The sensors can detect forward and sideways motion and enable you to kick and punch in different ways. You can even make your character, jump, duck and weave.
For even more fun you can hook up a second stick and compete with a friend.
If violence isn't your thing, the ActionStick also works with rhythm based games such as Space Channel 5 Part 2, Bust a Move and Parapa the Rapper.
PlayStation 2 owners also don't' have to have all the fun, as with an adaptor it can be made to work with Xbox and PC games.
The ActionStick is created by Korean company BestSoft but is being distributed in the UK and the rest of Europe by EDP Europe. BestSoft is keen to stress the benefits of using the ActionStick as the physical interactivity provides obvious health benefits In fact the company have figures claiming that gamers using the ActionStick for an hour will burn up more calories than swimming or jogging.
This is remarkable considering it is the opposite of what video games are normally associated with. However, EDP might not want to stress this point too much as gamers might start to miss being able to vedge out in front of the TV with their favourite game.
The ActionStick has a selling price of £80 and is available now.


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History of Rugby League
The history of rugby league breaking away from its sister sport rugby union is a long a complex one and forms much of the history with regards to the formation of the sport. The split was one which was primarily related to financial issues. The many successful northern players, who played for northern teams often had working class professions, such as miners and labourers, and thus they were not very economically stable. However, southern players, who played for southern teams were much more financially stable, this lead to great contention between the north and the south when it came to rugby league.
Rugby league was to become a more amateur sport and they disagreed with the ethos of the 'broken time payments' that were given to players when they took time off work to participate in the sport. The Northern Rugby Football Union was formed and many of the poorer, primarily northern teams joined this association and thus rugby league was formed and rugby union continued as a different but very similar practice of the game. This split was not exclusive to the occurrences in the United Kingdom. A very similar thing occurred in Australia which lead to he New South Wales Rugby Football League being formed in 1907, roughly 10 years after the split had happened in the United Kingdom.
It took almost 50 years until the international tournament was established and in 1954 the first rugby world cup was held at Odsal Stadium in the English city of Bradford. The match was attended by over 100,000 people making it the most popular and well attended event of either rugby league or rugby union and thus the sport was solidified in popular culture, though still with quite a niche market. The world cup is still played to this day and the current champions are Australia.


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Assessment Human Resource Planning and Recruitment. We believe every organization trying to compete with its human resources in the face of global challenges. It can be obtained through the selection of qualified human resources is based on an accurate assessment […]Read More
Recruitment Program Service management recruitment process in accordance with the client's needs. This process allows the efficiency in managing the recruitment process. Time management systems and appropriate allocation of resources is the key to the success of an effective recruitment […]Read More
HR & Management Solution The program is aimed at companies new or old company wants to strengthen its position in the market. This program will help the company to win the competition in the market with the company's organizational development […]Read More


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Monday, 19 October 2009
4 comments:
I do too!
By the way ma'am, I am trying to generate some support for our daughter. We entered her into a Smile Contest, so if you could please vote for her (just once), the contest runs until October 31st. Your vote would be so much appreciated.
To cast your vote, please go to this link. Please look for Jillian Rylie Cottrill. Thank you very much for your help!
Joops said... Tue Oct 20, 02:57:00 am GMT-6
Yes that's true. Friends are God's agents to help us in times of need. Friends are there through thick or thin and are always ready to lend a helping hand. You are a true friend indeed. Thanks for the post. God bless you always.
Mel Avila Alarilla said... Wed Oct 21, 01:34:00 am GMT-6
Friends keep us on an even keel. Thank you for being a friend too.
God bless you and yours.
tuti said... Thu Oct 22, 08:23:00 am GMT-6
Sheila: I consider you one of my dearest friends -its sems like the Lord leads me to you everytime that I need uplifting-
I m glad that you gt everything done that you needed to get done-I havelost so many memories over the years -I used to have all of my kids report cards etc-but I wish that I had them still but I know that it is only material things
Love ya Sis
Mary ann Asbury said... Fri Oct 30, 01:59:00 pm GMT-6