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In the field of systems-of-systems (SoS) engineering, there is broad agreement on a few characterizations, and these are currently being standardized. However, many aspects in the field still lack an established terminology. In particular, there are unclarities related to the internal structure of an SoS, and on the internal states of constituent systems. In this paper, a refined terminology is therefore proposed, which covers the internal substructure of an SoS; the states of constituent systems in relation to those substructures; and how it relates to hierarchical levels. This terminology can also be used to classify the characteristics of an SoS through different metrics. The terminology is illustrated through three examples of SoS applications in various domains.
The research area systems-of-systems engineering has increased rapidly over the last decade and now contains a substantial body of literature. To get an overview of the field, a systematic mapping of the literature has been done, covering over 3000 papers. It revealed a field massively dominated by US researchers, with an emphasis on military and space systems. A large number of people are involved, but few researchers focus on the area, and citations are fairly low compared to other fields. Important research topics include architecture, modeling and simulation, integration and interoperability, communication, sustainability, and safety and security. There are signs of immaturity within the research area, and it is recommended that existing venues are complemented with an international scientific event with very high standards for submissions.
In many industries, embedded software plays an increasingly important role in defining the characteristics of the products. Often, a product line approach is used, and the system architecture is developed through evolution rather than being redone from scratch for each product. In this paper, we present a model of such an evolutionary process based on architecture transformations. The model attempts to give an accurate description of how real architects actually work. Key elements of the approach are how the transformations interact with consistency constraints and with feasibility in terms of resource limitations. The work is based on findings from previous case studies in the automotive industry. The model can be used to enhance our understanding of the architecting process, and to find ways to improve it.
As systems-of-systems start to be more common in commercial applications, an analysis of emergent properties related to utility and cost for all stakeholders becomes critical. This paper describes an approach for this based on network simulation and game theory, which is applied to truck highway platooning. The emergent properties of energy efficiency and transport efficiency are studied as a consequence of the strategies for platoon formation, and it is shown that having information about the route planning of other vehicles has a significant positive effect on the properties. This indicates the need for a mediator in the platooning system-of-systems architecture. Its role is to communicate plans of the constituent systems.
Six Sigma is a development methodology which
emphasizes objective evaluations based on facts and
measurements. However, for some problems the
information is inherently subjective, with large individual
variations. Also, in the early development phases, it may
be difficult to define measurable metrics that correctly
capture the important qualities. The vehicle HMI is a
good example of such an application. In this paper, we
present experiences of applying Design for Six Sigma
methods to the early development phases of an
automotive HMI. The focus of the paper is on how to
handle uncertainties and vague subjective information.
Cyber-physical systems is an extension of traditional embedded systems, where communication to the outside world is given more emphasis. This leads to a new design space also for software development, allowing new allocation strategies for functionality. In traditional embedded systems, all functionality was inside the product, but now it becomes possible to partition the software between the embedded systems and IT systems outside the product. This paper investigates, through a case study from the automotive domain, possible new allocation alternatives where computation is offloaded from the embedded system to a server, and what additional architectural concerns this leads to, including performance, resource utilization, robustness, and lifecycle aspects. In addition, the paper addresses new opportunities created by allocating functionality outside the embedded systems, and thus making data available for extended services, as well as the larger concerns that result on the organizational level, including new competency in architecture and DevOps.
Platooning of trucks on motorways has been proposed as a method of reducing fuel consumption. It requires communication between the trucks to control the distance between them. However, this system-of-systems (SoS) cannot only contain the trucks, but also needs to include mediating off-board services for match-making to find suitable constellations of trucks, and for creating platooning incentives by distributing the profit made equally among the constituent systems. This paper analyzes what actors in the SoS would be suitable to operate these services, and also business models that cover the cost for their implementation and operation. It concludes that the truck OEMs have a vital role in creating the mediating services, and that a suitable business model would be based on usage fees for the services rather than upfront payment for platooning equipment.
This paper discusses how the early phases of developing embedded electronic systems can be improved by enhanced modelling of cost and performance that includes explicithandling of uncertainties. The approach is to add cost information to existing UML models,capture uncertainties using probability distributions, and use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the risk of not reaching the cost targets. It is demonstrated how the information obtained can be used when evaluating different architecture alternatives, while including both development and product cost as well as risk in the trade-off
Many industries rely heavily on embedded software and systems to maximize business value in their products. These systems are very complex and the architecture is important to control the complexity and make development efficient. There are often also connections between the embedded system and the different lifecycle processes, and hence to the enterprise systems supporting those processes. It is rare to start from scratch when developing new products, and instead these companies evolve their products over time, which means that architecting needs to be evolutionary. In this chapter, it is described what such an evolutionary architecting process can look like based on observations from industry, and how the process can be continuously improved using a maturity model. It is also presented how the embedded system relates to different elements of the enterprise architecture.
In the automotive industry, embedded systems and software play an increasingly important role in defining the characteristics of the vehicles. Both the vehicles and the embedded systems are designed as product lines, and two distinct rchitecture processes can be identified. The revolutionary process develops the architecture of a new product line, and focuses on abstract quality attributes and flexibility. The evolutionary process continuously modifies the architecture due to changes, such as additions of new functionality. In this paper, the evolutionary process is investigated through a case study. The study reviews a number of changes to an existing architecture, observing the cause of the change, what quality attributes were considered, and what technical aspects were included. It is also analyzed how the interplay between the two processes can be improved through systematic feedback about what evolution actually takes place.
Most industrial software-intensive systems have a very long life span, and undergo many changes after their initial conception. To ensure that they maintain the desired system-level properties, it is essential that their architecture is also updated to reflect the added functionality. To this end, we have investigated how Evolutionary Architecting should be carried out in order to provide a strong basis for a system, not only at conception but throughout its life. The results are concrete and based on empirical findings, and include both a new state-of-the-art process description and a light-weight maturity evaluation method.
This paper addresses the problem of exchanging complex data between the constituent systems in a system-of-systems. This is necessary to ensure that they have compatible understandings of the world surrounding them and entails a need for semantic interoperability between the constituents. Through a case study of a road construction system-of-systems, the world wide web technologies of linked data and ontologies are explored as a framework for data representation and exchange. This data includes several broad categories, such as assets, interfaces, organizations, capabilities, missions, and observations, as well as various properties of those. It is also discussed how the constituents can use this data for reasoning and decision making. The results have been validated through a simulation-based research prototype of the road construction case, from which experiences are reported.
Systems-of-systems (SoS) are becoming increasingly common in more and more domains, spreading from the initial focus on government-controlled areas such as defense to open market industries. This implies that collaborative SoS are becoming more important, where the constituents need to be given incentives to join and remain within the SoS. Game theory has been proposed as a framework to model and analyze such SoS mechanisms. It aims at providing such incentives to the independently operated and managed constituents. This paper presents a systematic literature review on the applications of game theory to SoS engineering, together with a synthesis aiming at capturing the best practices for such an analysis. The main conclusions are that game theory can be applied to SoS in a wide range of application areas, and deal with problems related to acquisition, design, and operations. In particular, the operational formation of SoS are well suited for this kind of analysis, and this often requires the use of simulation techniques. However, most results in the field lack a validation in practice.
Many industries developing complex products based on embedded systems rely on architecting as a key activity. Furthermore, they use product line approaches to find synergies between their products. This means that they use a base platform which is adapted to different products, and the architecture of the product line thus evolves over time. In previous case studies we have seen that these companies often lack a defined process for the evolutionary architecting of these product lines. The contribution of this paper is to present such a process, which matches key characteristics of mature architecting practices. It is also discussed how this process compares to observations in industry.
This paper discusses the topic of uncertainty in the context of architecting embedded software and systems. It presents links between complexity and uncertainty, and identifies different kinds of uncertainty. Based on this, it elaborates why uncertainty arises in the architecting of software-intensive systems, and presents ten different tactics that can be employed to deal with uncertainty and mitigate the associated risks.
Vehicle platooning has been studied for several decades, with objectives such as improved traffic throughput on existing infrastructure or reduced energy consumption. All the time, it has been apparent that safety is an important issue. However, there are no comprehensive analyses of what is needed to achieve safety in platooning, but only scattered pieces of information. This paper investigates, through a systematic literature review, what is known about safety for platooning, including what analysis methods have been used, what hazards and failures have been identified, and solution elements that have been proposed to improve safety. Based on this, a gap analysis is performed to identify outstanding questions that need to be addressed in future research. These include dealing with a business ecosystem of actors that cooperate and compete around platooning, refining safety analysis methods to make them suitable for systems-of-systems, dealing with variability in vehicles, and finding solutions to various human factors issues.
This report constitutes a strategic research and innovation agenda for the area systems-of-systems. The agenda has been developed during the first half of 2015 in a project led by SICS Swedish ICT AB, in collaboration with INCOSE Sweden and a large number of representatives from industry and academia, with financial support from Vinnova. The overall conclusion of the agenda is: Sweden needs a world-leading capability to rapidly develop trustworthy systems-of-systems A system-of-systems (SoS) can informally be defined as a group of independent collaborating systems. The elements of an SoS, called constituent systems, retain an operational and managerial independence, but when combined in a certain way, they provide together a new capability that is emergent from their cooperation. There are many applications of SoS, often as a consequence of the digitization of society which opens new possibilities for system integration. Examples can be found within command and control systems for defense and civilian crisis management; construction and mining; manufacturing and the reindustrialization; transportation; and health care. System integration is traditionally a Swedish area of strength, and by improving SoS knowledge, competitive advantages can be reached. SoS is also an important enabler for innovation, through the ability to combine existing technical products, processes, and organizations in new ways. Having the ability for rapid SoS development is very important for businesses to bring new innovations to market. However, to advance the practice of SoS engineering, a number of challenges need to be addressed, including improving the theoretical foundations; the socio-technical aspects; architecture; modeling and simulation; interoperability; trust; business and legal aspects; development processes and methods; and standardization. As part of the agenda project, a survey has been done of international and Swedish research in the area. Internationally, the SoS field is dominated by US researchers, with a very strong focus on military and space applications. A large number of people are involved, but few persons focus on the area. In comparison, Sweden has entered the research area much later, and only now is attention growing. As is the case internationally, few researchers focus on SoS, and many of them do not even call their research SoS. Activities are scattered over many organizations throughout the country. Many of the researchers in SoS in Sweden come from a background in Software Engineering or Control Engineering, and this is in contrast with the international research, which has its basis in Systems Engineering. In Sweden, research topics such as business aspects (in particular innovation), control systems, governance, and Internet of Things are more pronounced than internationally. However, there is little research in Sweden on the underlying, fundamental principles of SoS engineering. This is likely to be in part a consequence of the funding strategies currently implemented. The analysis shows a broad but scattered Swedish research community lacking critical mass. There is a high competence in software and control engineering, and in empirical research methods, but the lack of systems engineering competence is alarming, since it is fundamental for desired advances, such as in the reindustrialization (Industry 4.0). To achieve the desired capability in SoS development requires knowledge, competence, and capacity, which are provided through substantially increased research and education actions. It is suggested that research in the area is organized as a national SoS center-of-centers that coordinates activities at different academic member organizations. This requires increased research funding. There is also an urgent need for education in systems engineering, systems thinking, and SoS. It is proposed that the center-of-centers also takes responsibility for this, by developing joint courses in those disciplines, including on-line courses for practitioners, and PhD schools for industrial and academic doctoral students. To complement this, societal actions are needed to remove obstacles for building SoS, and enforcing standards. Finally, it is necessary to create meeting places, including triple helix flagship projects, that can fuel the interactions between individuals and organizations interested in SoS.
Many companies developing embedded systems and software as part of a product line struggle with how to improve their architecting practices to deal with increasing complexity. As the amount of legacy systems from previous products increases, the architecting becomes more and more evolutionary. This paper develops a process maturity model for evolutionary architecting, that can be used by an organization to improve its practices. The model is based on the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) which is instantiated to suit the architecting needs. Through this instantiation and simplification, it becomes feasible also for a small architecting team to systematically improve its maturity without dealing with the full CMMI. It is shown how the resulting maturity model addresses a number of issues previously collected from industrial case studies. The method is evaluated by performing maturity evaluations at several companies.
When developing complex software-intensive systems, it is nowadays common practice to base the solution partly on existing software components. Selecting which components to use becomes a critical decision in development, but it is currently not well supported through methods and tools. This paper discusses how a decision support system for this problem could benefit from a software ecosystem approach, where participants share knowledge across organizations both through reuse of analysis models, and through partially disclosed past decision cases. It is shown how the architecture of this ecosystem becomes fundamental to deal with efficient knowledge sharing, while respecting constraints on integrity of intellectual property. A concrete proposal for an architecture is outlined, which is a distributed system-of-systems using web technologies. Experiences of a proof-of-concept implementation are also described.
Road construction is a very large business segment, consuming enormous public funding every year and with significant environmental impacts. However, the rate of efficiency improvement during the last few decades has been negligible, whereas other industries, such as manufacturing, have seen very large improvements by applying automation and Leanbased flow optimization across the production system. In this paper, we outline a system-of-systems concept for road construction which applies similar principles as have previously proved successful in other industries. The paper identifies efficiency attributes and wastes in current practices, which lead to a conceptual solution that focuses on improved coordination of working machines. Technical elements from Industry 4.0 are considered as potential building blocks in this concept, identifying similarities and differences between the construction domain and other industries. Finally, challenges are identified, in particular within knowledge representation and information management.
The development of system‐of‐systems (SoS) requires a continuous interplay between design decisions on the SoS level and those on the level of its constituent systems (CS), which often preexist and need to be adapted as the SoS evolves. This involves not only preparing the CS to participate in a particular SoS, but also designing the CS architecture to make it easily adaptable to a future SoS context. The problem is in part addressed in an emerging SoS framework in the manufacturing domain called Industry 4.0. It focuses on connected and digitalized production with the ambition of increasing flexibility and efficiency. This paper investigates how Industry 4.0 standards can be used in an SoS context to make CS more flexible and adaptive, and evaluates their usefulness outside manufacturing. The study is based on a case from the construction domain, for which a generic SoS architecture is developed. Several extensions and adaptations of Industry 4.0 are suggested, including specifications of ontologies for missions and workflows.
Federated embedded systems (FES) is an approach for systems-of-systems engineering in the domain of cyber-physical systems. It is based on the idea to allow dynamic addition of plug-in software in the embedded system of a product, and through communication between the plug-ins in different products, it becomes possible to build services on the level of a federation of products. In this paper, architectural concerns for FES are elicited, and are used as rationale for a number of decisions in the architecture of products that are enabled for FES, as well as in the application architecture of a federation. A concrete implementation of a FES from the automotive domain is also described, as a validation of the architectural concepts presented.
The automotive industry has recently developed the embedded software standard AUTOSAR, which is now being introduced widely in production vehicles. The standard structures the application into reusable components that can be deployed in a specific vehicle using a configuration scheme. However, this configuration takes place at design time, with no provision for dynamically installing components to reconfigure the system. In this paper, we present the conceptual design of a dynamic component model that extends an AUTOSAR based control unit with the possibility to add plug-in components that execute on a virtual machine. This concept is intended to give benefits in terms of much shorter deployment time for new functions, even into vehicles that have already been produced. Further, it creates opportunities for vehicles to take part in federated embedded systems together with other products. It also opens up a market for third-party developers, and fosters open innovation in an ecosystem around the automotive software business.
The characteristics of systems-of-systems (SoS) present fundamental challenges regarding properties such as safety, security, reliability, and robustness. This is due to the SoS nature where a collection of independent systems cooperate to fulfil certain high-level objectives. Risk analysis is thus an important activity in SoS engineering. This paper presents a risk analysis method which extends the existing STAMP safety analysis method that is based on systems thinking. Our extensions are aimed at coping with other risks than safety, and the usage is tailored to SoS. The method aims at deriving requirements on the constituent systems that will reduce the emergent risks on the SoS as a whole. The method has been applied to a case study of vehicle platooning.
Due to the increasing importance of cyber-physical and embedded systems in industry, there is a strong demand for engineers with an updated knowledge on contemporary technology and methods in the area. This is a challenge for educators, in particular when it comes to creating hands-on experiences of real systems, due to their complexity and the fact that they are usually proprietary. Therefore, a laboratory environment that is representative of the industrial solutions is needed, with a focus on software and systems engineering issues. This paper describes such an environment, called the Mobile Open Platform for Experimental Design (MOPED). It consists of a model car chassis, equipped with a network of three control units based on standard hardware, and running the automotive software standard AUTOSAR, which consists of operating system, middleware, and application software structures. It is equipped with various sensors and actuators, and is open to extensions both in hardware and software. It also contains elements of future systems, since it allows connectivity to cloud services, development of federated embedded systems, and continuous deployment of new functionality. In this way, the platform provides a very relevant learning environment for cyber-physical systems, today and in the future.
Urbanization is one of the major current trends in society. Cities around the world are looking into 'smart' solutions based on information and communication technology to deal with the challenges that result from this development. Mobility is one of the most important areas to address, and system-of-systems solutions where vehicles and infrastructure are connected have a potential to improve urban transportation in many aspects. In this paper, current initiatives related to mobility in smart cities around the world are surveyed, and this is complemented with input from focus groups of transportation stakeholders to identify the important aspects of the problem. Based on this, challenges related to the application of systems-of-systems in urban mobility are identified.
Context Traditionally, Embedded Systems (ES) are tightly linked to physical products, and closed both for communication to the surrounding world and to additions or modifications by third parties. New technical solutions are however emerging that allow addition of plug-in software, as well as external communication for both software installation and data exchange. These mechanisms in combination will allow for the construction of Federated Embedded Systems (FES). Expected benefits include the possibility of third-party actors developing add-on functionality; a shorter time to market for new functions; and the ability to upgrade existing products in the field. This will however require not only new technical solutions, but also a transformation of the software ecosystems for ES. Objective This paper aims at providing an initial characterization of the mechanisms that need to be present to make a FES ecosystem successful. This includes identification of the actors, the possible business models, the effects on product development processes, methods and tools, as well as on the product architecture. Method The research was carried out as an explorative case study based on interviews with 15 senior staff members at 9 companies related to ES that represent different roles in a future ecosystem for FES. The interview data was analyzed and the findings were mapped according to the Business Model Canvas (BMC). Results The findings from the study describe the main characteristics of a FES ecosystem, and identify the challenges for future research and practice. Conclusions The case study indicates that new actors exist in the FES ecosystem compared to a traditional supply chain, and that their roles and relations are redefined. The business models include new revenue streams and services, but also create the need for trade-offs between, e.g., openness and dependability in the architecture, as well as new ways of working. © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Agile approaches have been highly influential to the software engineering practices in many organizations, and are increasingly being applied in larger companies, and for developing systems outside the pure software domain. To understand more about the current state of agile, its applications to safety-critical systems, and the consequences on innovation and large organizations, a seminar was organized in Stockholm in 2014. This paper gives an overview of the topics discussed at that seminar, a summary of the main results and suggestions for future work as input to a research agenda for agile development of safety-critical software.
It has been suggested in the literature to organize software in autonomous vehicles as hierarchical layers where each layer makes its own decisions based on its own world model. This paper presents two alternative designs for autonomous construction vehicles based on the layered framework 4D/RCS. As a first step, the typical use cases for these vehicles were defined. Then one use case for a hauler was traversed through the two alternatives to see how they supported safety, flexibility and the use of a product platform. We found that the coordination between bucket control and motion control must be done at a low level in the hierarchy and that the relationship between the vehicle actuators and the built-in autonomous system is important for how the software is organized.
This paper describes an empirical study of decision-making when changing the architecture in embedded systems. A refactoring of the system architecture often gives effects on both system properties and functions in the company organization, and there is a lack of efficient analysis methods for decision support in the system architecture process. This study investigates the information needed to make a decision about a system refactoring. Scenario-based interviews have been conducted with managers and system architects from companies developing embedded systems. The results show that the companies investigate similar issues regardless of their industry sector. The most wanted information prior to a decision is also presented.
Many complex software-intensive systems have a long life time, and undergo substantial evolution. These evolutions are either additions of functionality or system refactoring, i.e., updating the architecture to improve quality attributes without changing functionality. However, the return of investment for such a system refactoring is not easily measured due to a lack of understanding of its effects. In order to improve our understanding of these effects, we have conducted a systematic literature review of the reported effects of one such refactoring: the introduction of AUTOSAR, an open automotive software architecture standard. The effects include both benefits, like lower complexity and more efficient system development, and costs, like performance risks. We have investigated how the effects depend on different elements in AUTOSAR, and how the reports correspond to the stated objectives of the standard. It is also discussed to what extent these effects can be generalized to other types of refactoring.
This paper presents an exploratory study of an automotive manufacturer, which develops embedded software for over 150 products and has adopted a company-wide software product-line approach. The company is facing the introduction of a new software architecture in all products in near time. This architecture introduces new paradigms more explicitly, such as explicit software components and signal-based communication, newer technologies, and adheres to new standards. Concretely, the architecture consists of common infrastructure and other generic components. Such a fundamental and drastic technology change can be expected to have far-reaching consequences, both of technical and non-technical nature. In this study we systematically investigate the introduction of the new software architecture, by mapping individual elements of the architectural change to system properties and company functions. The study implies that the whole organization is affected, and the new architecture also influences the cooperation with suppliers.
Autonomous and intelligent construction equipment is an emergent area of research, which shares many characteristics with on-road autonomous vehicles, but also have fundamental differences. Construction vehicles usually perform repetitive tasks in confined sites, such as quarries, and cooperate with other vehicles to complete common missions. A quarry can be viewed as a system-of-systems and the vehicles are individual systems within the site system. Therefore it is important to analyze the site system, i.e. included vehicles, surrounding systems, and system context, before the introduction of autonomous vehicles. It is necessary to map the needed infrastructure, and the needed input information from on-board sensors and off-board information suppliers, before designing the vehicle electronics system. This paper describes how we identified sensory and input signal needs for an autonomous articulated hauler in a scenario at a quarry site. Different architectural alternatives are evaluated and a set-up for a quarry site is suggested.
In this paper we perform a pilot study of evaluation of integration strategies in an automotive electronics system context. We describe the problem of choosing integration strategy and we outline the use of the Architecture Tradeoff and Analysis Method, ATAM, for evaluating integration strategies.
We exemplify the use of the ATAM by evaluating the integration decisions concerning the physical connection of a theoretic example system; a computer controlled automatic gearbox. A utility tree describing the most important qualities of the product is elicited by interviews with system architects and product specialists at Volvo Construction Equipment. We show how an evaluation score card can be used to aid in integration decisions.
Also, perform preliminary analysis and provide some discussion points from the result. This early analysis shows that ATAM has weaknesses in that it is sensitive to errors in the elicitation process and that the weighting of the resulting scenarios can be coarse grained. One strength of the ATAM is that design decisions and quality goals become visible to many stakeholders. Our proposed use of ATAM does not include any cost or effort estimates, but only relative quality estimates.
In our pilot study example we find that the integration of a software component as opposed to integration of a whole ECU, ranks higher with respect to the desired qualities.
The goal of this study is to improve the understanding of how architecting is performed within the field of software-intensive systems. Architects at six different internationally well-known companies have been interviewed to understand their way of working. This paper presents the practices that are found most successful. The context of the different companies as well as the architecting practices are compared and analyzed. Many of the architecting practices found in the study can be explained by the context of the different companies. The study shows that architects at all companies mention a general lack of understanding of software-intensive systems within industries that used to be mechanical. The architects' view of their work is very similar independently of where they work. Also the way architecting is performed is very similar, but surprisingly only one company has a defined process for architecting.
This paper studies the current state of architecting practices in three different industrial segments which are characterized by being software-intensive. The context of the six different companies as well as the architecting practices are compared and analyzed. The methods used to solve the tasks within the architecting process are mapped to the context where it has been used in industry. An analysis of the case study indicates how different methods are more suitable in different environments. Many of the successful practices found in the study can be explained by external factors related to the context of the different companies. Others relate to the internal structure of the organization, including its maturity which is measured by assessment through an adaption of the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI).
The automotive customers demand new functionality with every new product release and the time-to-market is
constantly shortened. The automotive embedded systems are characterized by being mechatronic system which adds
complexity. The systems are often resource constrained and trade-offs between the system behavior and the resources required is of great importance. The decisions are usually based on many factors that pull in different directions such as maintenance, portability, usability etc. The complex system and the many uncertain factors create a need for support in the design process. In this paper the use of Real Options is evaluated on a hypothetic but realistic case taken from the automotive industry. The case show how real option valuation provides additional guidance when making system design decisions. Real Options provide the opportunity to analyze the cost of designing for future growth of an platform, based on the estimated value of the future functionality. The value of a flexible design can thereby be quantified making the trade-off between short and long term solution more accurate.
Embedded automotive architectures and software need to support a large number of vehicle product lines over many years of production. This leads to a complexity and many uncertain factors when developing such systems and a need for support in the design process. An evaluation method using Real Options provides the opportunity to analyze the cost of designing for flexibility to cope with a future growth of a product line, based on the estimated value of the future functionality. In this paper Real Options is applied on a case within the automotive industry. To improve the usability an evaluation process is defined to aid engineers. This process provides a way of valuing system designs and enables the engineer to think about the future in a systematic manor. The value of a flexible design can thereby be quantified and the proposed process shows how it can be accepted by practitioners.
This chapter discusses how to deal with scenarios as previous presented by putting a value on flexibility in the system solution. Thereby, it becomes clearer when to focus on short-term solutions and when to keep the long-term evolution of a product line in mind. The approach taken is to evaluate flexibility using a concept called Real Options. The method is motivated and described by using as an example an industrial area where very complex product lines occur, namely automotive embedded systems. To improve the usability of the method, a structured evaluation process is defined to aid practitioners such as developers and architects. The evaluation process provides a way of valuing system designs and enables the practitioner to think about the future in a systematic manner. The value of a flexible design can thereby be quantified, and the proposed process shows how it can be accepted by practitioners within the automotive industry.
In many industries, complex embedded product lines are designed. In theory, this follows a structured and well-organized process, where a set of given requirements is transformed step by step into an optimal product. However, in reality the complexity of the products and markets often lead to much less stringent ways of working. Let us consider a fictional, but not atypical, scenario.
The impact of embedded systems within the automotive industry has grown very rapidly and is today influencing most part of the product development process. This technological change puts high demands on the development process in order for the company to stay competitive. The architecting process is performed during the early phases of the development process when uncertainty is very high. The architecting process will not create immediate value to the end customer, but rather create the architecture on which value in terms of product features can be developed. The architecture will enable value creation when working properly or, in the worst case, prevent value creation. Lean is a product development philosophy that aims at creating value for the end customer. A Lean tool used to improve the value creation within a process is Value Stream Mapping (VSM). VSM has in this work been adapted and evaluated to analyze and identify improvements of the architecting process within embedded systems development. In this paper we present practical experiences from using this adapted VSM. The evaluation was conducted through interviews at two automotive manufacturers. VSM is shown to be a valuable tool to identify waste and thereby improve the architecting process.
The automotive customers demand new functionality with every new product release and the time-to-market is constantly shortened. The automotive embedded systems are characterized by being mechatronic systems which adds complexity. The systems are often resource constrained and trade-offs between the system behaviour and the resources required is of great importance. The system complexity and the many uncertain factors create a need for support in the design process. Many design features such as memory and processor capacity can be seen as options, i.e. giving you the right but not the obligation to use them in the future. The valuation method using Real Options provides the opportunity to analyze the cost of designing for future growth of a platform, based on the estimated value of the future functionality.
In this paper the use of Real Options is applied on a real case within the automotive industry. The studied company develops commercial vehicles for a broad range of applications. In this case study a valuation is performed on two different design alternatives of function allocation. The design alternatives vary in hardware, software, cabling etc. The case study has been per-formed together with the developing organization and it has therefore been possible to observe the acceptance of the method. The study shows how Real Option valuation provides valuable guidance when making system design decisions and more importantly also show how it can be used and accepted by system engineers. The method does not only provide a way of valuing sys-tem designs, but it also forces the system engineer to think about the future in a systematic manor. The value of a flexible design can thereby be quantified making the trade-off between short and long term solutions more accurate.
Presentation of the achievements and activities within the PROGRESS national strategic research centre 2006-2008
Traditionally embedded systems are developed with a specific control task in mind, and are able to affect only a limited set of actuators, based on measurements from a limited set of sensors. With the arrival of cheap and efficient communication technology, this traditional picture is starting to change. It is our belief that future embedded systems will interact with each other, forming federations to provide new emergent services to their users. With this in mind, a pre-study was performed to discern the main concepts of such federations and the related challenges that need to be addressed. This has led to two parallel research directions, presented in this paper. One is focusing on the enabling technology that is needed for dynamic creation of new types of federations, while the other deals with the methodological concepts for creation of ecosystems in which federations of embedded systems can be dynamically formed.
While systems of systems (SoS) are starting to reach the market, it is not entirely evident how to analyze safety, and on a high level also security, of such systems. In fact, speci c characteristics of SoS, such as independence, changing con- stitution, evolutionary development, and emergent behavior, provide certain challenges to the safety analysis. In this pa- per, such challenges are summarized and a systems theoretic safety analysis method, abbreviated as STAMP, is evaluated on an automotive SoS application example. In conclusion, STAMP seems well positioned to serve as a base for a future method for safety and, to a certain degree, security analysis of SoS, although some work remains to be done. The advan- tages and limitations of the STAMP approach when dealing with SoS are discussed.
The automotive industry has recently agreed upon the embedded software standard AUTOSAR, which structures an application into reusable components that can be deployed using a configuration scheme. However, this configuration takes place at design time, with no provision for dynamically installing components to reconfigure the system. In this paper, we present the design and implementation of a dynamic component model that extends AUTOSAR with the possibility to add plug-in components at runtime. This opens up for shorter deployment time for new functions; opportunities for vehicles to participate in federated embedded systems; and involvement of third-party software developers.
It is widely accepted that awareness of architectural decisions enables better management and planning of system evolution, refactoring, and modernization efforts. In this paper we report data from interviews with software architects about how practitioners utilize architecture during system evolution. Our results show, despite the widely shared view that long-lived systems are better off with strong architectures; basic architecture-centric practices are not followed systematically. The key gap we observe is in correct and timely communication of architectural issues. This overall finding is not surprising. However, our data also contributes to how architecture knowledge management activities can be focused for most benefit throughout a system's lifespan. While the often-referenced problem is lack of time spent on documentation and design practices, our interviews show that lack of quality attribute reasoning early on, and during the lifespan of the system is a key contributor to failing to use architecture knowledge effectively during evolution.


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This week turned out to be quite happening for the PayPal users. As per the policy of PayPal digital currency trading is prohibited. These users received a warning email because they were involved in the transfer and trading of Bitcoin investing.
The users were warned to cease any particular activity that involved the transfer or trading of digital currency. What appears strange is that even loyal PayPal users were sent this mail. David Veksler who is associated with the Foundation for Economic Education received this email despite having a 17-year-old PayPal account.
Apparently, about 200 million users got this Bitcoin investing mail so this something that cannot be ignored by any means at all. What needs to be mentioned here is that the email looked quite professional. It had a formal title that mentioned the warning, and it looked like an official email from PayPal.
However, PayPal had a different answer to all this when Veksler decided to do a bit of investigation on his part. He got in touch with the support team of PayPal, and they said that the email address did not seem to be legit.
Now, at this moment it is important that PayPal should address this issue on an immediate basis because this company is reputed and operates in more than 200 countries. The users are also perplexed about his happening and need an answer.
Even the company is contradicting the email as per Veksler. He stated that the policy does not state anywhere that trading the digital currency is prohibited. The latest happening is that Paypal has stated on its community page that the email issue has been resolved.
However, this issue seems to be resolved for only those users who have personally contacted the support team to discuss this issue. There is a dire need that PayPal should set up a well-defined policy to address these issues.
Such emails trigger uncertainty in the customers who are not willing to make any compromises when it comes to the PayPal services. If by any means PayPal has made any changes to its policy, then it is important that it should let the users know so that they do not have any misconceptions at all.
These emails seem to be a clear case of spam, and this can seriously hamper PayPal's reputation. If the company ignores this happening, then a lot is on the line for them.

subset: commoncrawl


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Eat like me
Today I want to challenge you. I am going to list what my kids can eat and I challenge you to eat like them for the day or the rest of the week!
1. No cheating, obviously
2. You can't eat out. You have to pack a lunch and snacks for the day.
3. You still have to cook a regular meal for your family while you eat only these foods. Cooking two different dinners will give you a feel for how it is in our house.
4. If you fail you donate $10 to CURED
Good Luck!
Charlie – these are the foods Charlie can not eat.
shellfish beef chicken turkey
peas egg mustard soy sesame
all melon pineapple banana mango
frog legs deer all nuts
Gage – these are the only foods Gage is allowed to eat
rice tapioca cocoa green beans
oranges limes lemons blueberries
olives strawberries cauliflower
Tinleigh – these are the only foods Tinleigh is allowed to eat
olives blueberries enjoy life chocolate chips
bananas squash
For those that are new to our family Gage and Tinleigh also have a feeding tube for their main source of nutrition.
I challenge YOU!
Consider donating $1 to CURED if you succeed in honor of these kids!
No comments yet.


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June can be a stressful time with exams, end of year recitals, etc. Its a busy time of year. We have come up with a craft that can help relieve some stress and is so fast to make that you can craft it on your study break. These stress balls are so much fun to squish, toss, roll and kneed. It's addictive!!! This craft was inspired by athriftymom.com
- 1/3 cup of Flour
- empty water bottle
- funnel
- straw/chopstick
- scissors
- 3 balloons
- Using the funnel, measure 1/3 cup of flour and sift into the water bottle using the straw/chopstick to help it go in.
- Take your first balloon and blow it up fully, then deflate.
- Next blow it up halfway and twist the neck to keep the air in. DO NOT tie.
- Holding the twist, stretch the opening of the balloon over the top of the water bottle.
- Let go of the twist in the balloon and empty the flour from water bottle into the balloon.
- Remove balloon from water bottle and SLOWLY let the air out. (if you go fast flour will fly everywhere.)
- Once the air is out, set the flour filled balloon on the table and cut the neck off the balloon.
- Wipe the flour off the outside of the balloon with a damp cloth. The two balloons together need to seal the flour inside. It will not seal if there is flour on the outside.
- Take your second balloon and cut the neck off. Put your fingers inside and wrap it around the flour balloon.
- Repeat steps 8 & 9 with the third balloon.
- Now squish away!!
Write in the comments to tell us how yours turned out and leave your tips and tricks. Or post a pic to instagram and tag #ggcmagazine.


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It will be a fun, thought provoking and interactive session with loads of take away info and ideas.
Mildura Grand Hotel
Seventh Street
Mildura, VIC 3500
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text: First Contact Polymer Toggle Search Account Checkout Cart Home Store: Order Now All-Inclusive Kits-One Click Plastics Formula Polymer Kits Spray First Contact Bulk Bottles Brushes Accessories, Spray Heads, Kits, and Bottles Orings Thinner Specialty Items Copper, Brass, Nickel & Aluminum Polymer Instructions Applications Astronomers High Powered Laser Optics LIGO Telescopes: Refractors, SCT, Dobs, etc. Reflecting Telescopes - Material Requirements Refracting Telescopes - Material Requirements Phase Masks/Gratings Forensic Fingerprinting Large Observatories FAQ SDS & Tech Data Distributors / Resellers Middle East Asia Africa Americas Europe Contact Visit Us at these Trade Shows! Testimonials Search site Submit search Nav Menu 2 Nav Menu 3 Nav Menu 4 Nav Menu 5 Nav Menu 6 Nav Menu 7 Nav Menu 8 Home > Store: Order Now First Contact™ Polymer A safe, easy-to-use strip coat cleaning system that removes dust, fingerprints, residues and contaminants from precision surfaces. We're Here to Help Not sure which product is right for your application?Read the FAQs for answers to commonly asked questions.Still not sure? Give us a call or send an email.Looking for the Safety Data Sheet?Download the PDF. Kits Spray Formula Kits Bulk Bottles Accessories Brushes Specialty Kits Thinner All-Inclusive Kits Orings Coated OpticsCertain coatings have inherently poor adhesion, especially if manufactured without effective substrate preparation, particularly gold and silver coatings and replicated aluminum gratings. Always test on an inconspicuous or non-critical area first.


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« Previous Page
1116 Eastchester Drive
Tuesday - Thursday 11am - 9pm
Thai Herb
For more than 3 years Thai Herb has been delighting the palates of High Point, NC. We would like to offer you The Real Thai Cuisine with the close attention we pay to every cooking step, starting from selecting only fresh, clean and high quality herbs ingredients, thru preparation.
1116 Eastchester Drive
High Point, NC 27265
(336) 889-3896
Tuesday - Thursday 11am - 9pm
Friday 11am - 9:30pm
Saturday 12pm - 9:30pm
Sunday 12pm - 8:30pm
Meals Available
Dinner, Lunch
Bar Availability
Beer, Wine


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This is the second game in SSI's Gold Box Advanced Dungeons & Dragons epic. If you enjoyed Pool of Radiance, this game scratches much of the same itch – plenty of exploration, monsters to defeat, and treasure to be found. This game continues the concepts the first game brought to the table: solid combat, classic D&D rules (for better and worse), lots of places to get lost in, and a strongly immersive world.
This is a solid educational math game from my childhood. Rather than being just a single game, the game includes multiple mini-games. The games are great fun for a child to play and are nice introductions to counting, addition and subtraction. There are some additional concepts introduced besides basic arithmetic such as musical tones and memory.
One of the first shoot-em-up games I ever had the good fortune to play. And I have to say, Silpheed is a memorable game. Even though it's old, it manages to not be just another top-down shoot-em-up game to me. It's a difficult game, one that I've never completed. Yet it's fun and memorable enough that I still sit down to take another crack at it once in a while.
Thexder is an action side-scrolling platforming game where you play as the eponymous fighter robot. The goal is to get from the start of the level to end of the level. Sounds simple enough.
To get through each level, you'll need to get through hoards of enemy robots, all programmed with the singular purpose of destroying you. To help you survive and navigate the levels, Thexder can transform from a humanoid-like form into a plane and back at will. Each mode gives you a specific advantage and weakness trade-off. When in humanoid mode, your attack laser homes in on enemies, but your mobility is restricted. When in plane mode, you are no longer bound by gravity, but your laser shoots only in the direction you are facing, and you are constantly propelled forward.


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COURIER-POST / SEARCH: 128 Mechanic St Boonton, NJ 07005
- 2 beds
- 1 baths
- $1,700 price
- 3595561 mls id
Beautiful NEWLY RENOVATED, freshly painted 2nd floor two bedroom apartment. Enjoy one floor living with a bright open living room and large kitchen with storage pantry. Washer/dryer in the unit. Large bedrooms with ample closet space. Walk to Main Street for great shopping and dining. Close to major highways and bus stops for an easy commute! Driveway parking available M-F nights, 5pm-8am and weekends. Street parking available during the day. No Smokers! 1.5 month security, 1 month broker fee, 1st month rent. This is a must see!
- Site Link
- Style Other Style
Courtesy of: CENTURY 21 Gemini LLC
Office Phone: +19736961111
Listing Agent: Heather Korn
Updated: 8th April, 2020 11:48 AM.
128 Mechanic St Boonton, NJ
Real Estate | Courier-Post Powered by Placester


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Call : +919999713133, +919582073133, +919711613133
To fulfill demand of our valuable clients, we have been engaged in manufacturing and supplying a premium range of Vertical Laminar Air Flow. This product is well cherished among clients due to its trouble free working and less maintenance. Offered product is used for controlling of particulate contamination and also regulate direction of airflow. Provided product is available in various specifications as per clients requirements. At ultra-modern production unit, this Vertical Laminar Air Flow is manufactured using quality tested components under observation of our deft professionals.
Key Points:
UPKARAN ENCORE TECHNOLOGIES All Rights Reserved.(Terms of Use)
Developed and Managed by Infocom Network Ltd.


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Zinc Supplements
Zinc supplements contain the active ingredient zinc sulphate to prevent and treat zinc deficiency.
Zinc supplements contain the active ingredient zinc sulphate to prevent and treat zinc deficiency.
Zinc supplements increase the amount of zinc in your body. They are used to treat and prevent zinc deficiency.
Take zinc supplements as directed with or just after food.
Take the missed dose as soon as possible. If it is close to the time for your next dose, skip the missed dose and carry on as normal. Do not take two doses at the same time.
Some medicines available may react with zinc supplements including:
Tell your pharmacist or doctor about all medicines or treatments that you may be taking, including vitamins, herbal products or recreational drugs.
Please tell your doctor if you notice: Nausea, abdominal pain, indigestion, vomiting, diarrhoea, irritability, headache or lethargy.
This medication should not have an adverse effect on your ability to drive or operate machinery. However, if you feel unwell, drowsy or dizzy refrain from driving and consult your doctor.
Book an appointment in seconds to video chat with a qualified New Zealand doctor
and get hassle-free prescriptions delivered to your door.
We have hundreds of happy customers throughout New Zealand. See what a few of
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Category Archives: rugby
26 December (1936) Cardigan County School reunion of old pupils
- 26 1936 (Sat.) Cardigan County School reunion of old pupils with a hockey and rugby match. Tea in Central Hall at 4.00
27 October (1973) Jeremy Thorpe in the Cliff; (1970) Gareth Edwards in the Rugby Club
- 27 1973 (Sat.) Cardigan & District Liberal Association are addressed by Rt Hon Jeremy Thorpe at the Cliff Hotel. Additional entertainment provided by Blaenporth Male voice choir.
- 27 1970 (Tues.) Visit of Gareth Edwards to the Rugby Club to present coloured portraits to 3 local schoolboys: Brynmor Williams, Delfryn Owens and Dyfed Davies
5 September (1969) Opening of the Rugby clubhouse
5 1969 (Fri.) Rugby Clubhouse opened by Osmonde G. John, Llangwm – WRU's district H representative.
8 August (1980) Bennett's in the Eagle!
- 8 1980 (Fri.) Phil Bennett visits the Eagle Inn to push a column of coins over in aid of Kidney research
- 8 1976 (Sun.) National Eisteddfod: Children's Cymanfa Ganu 2.30; Cymanfa Ganu at 8.00.
- 8 1901 (Thurs.) Burial of Pleybert Ives, 36, a vendor of French Onions, who drowned in the Teifi.
23 July (1970) Our Lady of the Taper officially opened at 6.30pm
- 23 1970 (Thurs.) Our Lady of the Taper officially opened 6.30. The ceremony was conducted by Rt Rev John E Petit MA, Bp of Menevia, assisted by Rt Rev Langton D Fox auxiliary Bp of Menevia.
- 23 1968 (Mon.) Fire damages Rugby Club
- 23 1678 (Tues.) Neptune of Ilfracombe took 15, 000 hilling stones to Dublin.
27 April (1967) Opening of the Rugby Club
- 27 1967 (Thurs.) Rugby Club opened: Osmond John, District Representative of the WRU officially opened the place, and Brian Thomas, Neath brought down a XV of celebrated players (including Hywel Williams!) to play against Cardigan.
- 27 1826 (Thurs.) Death of Charles Symmons born in 1749.


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Bangkok skaters' go-to brand gets a pop culture collab
The goodies are limited to 100 pieces each.
1 year ago
Bangkok skaters looking to up their decks are in for a treat with the latest drop from local skateboard brand Preduce.
Designed by renowned Thai street artist and the brand's very own art director Thun "TRK" Puchpen, the limited edition Preduce x Masked Rider collection features a set of five skateboard decks (B8,500), a screen printed t-shirt (B990) and five sets of skating wheels (B1,200) showcasing the cult classic Japanese superhero characters against a post-apocalyptic Bangkok.
Each item is limited to 100 pieces only. Available at the Siam Square store and online at www.preduce.com
Preduce, Siam Square Soi 1, 086-045-5784. Open daily 12pm-8:30pm


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Brown Rice Syrup
Brand : HYK FOODS
Product origin : WUHU,CHINA
Delivery time : 15 DAYS
Supply capacity : 3000 TONS/MONTH
Brown Rice Syrup
Product Description
1. Brown rice syrup using rice as raw material, rice syrup is manufactured by barely malt as catalyst. Comparing to white rice syrup, brown rice syrup is more authentic, more natural.
2. Normally, it is transparent or faint yellow, with smoothly sweetness. Also, being a sticky liquid, it is odorless and contains no visible impurities
Application in food industry
1. Brown rice syrup has smooth sweetness, transparent color, stable antioxidant ability, moderate viscosity, stable chemical properties so it is much used in confectionary industry.
2. Rice syrup has stronger viscosity than liquid glucose so it is much used in canned fruit and fruit beverages which will bring higher viscosity and better taste.
3. Rice syrup has better hydrolysis ability so it is much used in bread or pudding which will bring higher viscosity and better taste.
Product Parameters
1. PH Value: 4.6 ~ 6.0
2. Maltose Percentage (calculated as solids): no less than 50%
3. Solids Percentage: 85%
4. Ash Content: less than 0.3%
5. Sugar Cooking Temperature: no less than 115в"ғ
6. SO2 Content: less than 200 mg per kg
Package and Delivery
1. Bulk packageпјҡPlastic drum(58cmГ—90cm) гҖҒSteel drum(58cmГ—90cm)гҖҒTinplate(24cmx24cmx36cm) гҖҒIBC 210L
2. Retail packageпјҡ500g plastic bowl
3. Free design for customized package
4. Delivery Dateпјҡ15days after payment
Company Advantages
1. Our brown rice syrup passed QS, HACCP, ISO9001, ISO14000, ISO22000. And our products will be tested through SGS, CCIC and INTERTEK.
2. Great reputation leads to lots of orders. There is no need to worry about production capacity.
3. Brown rice syrup using advanced technologies and imported Vietnam broken rice to make sure all products are qualified with excellent taste.
4. Free samples. OEM and ODM available. Free package design if needed. Multiple payment method.


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Travel Dresses & Tieks
At Virginia Dare Dress Co., we admire companies whose thoughtfulness shows in the beauty and quality of their products. It's the kind of thing customers keep coming back for, and we love to see it. Tieks by Gavrieli is a brand we really admire. Their flats are iconic, with over sixty beautiful colors and the classic Tiek Blue soles. Speaking of soles, they are non-skid and split, so they can fold up and fit into your purse. Genius!..


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Come and join me again in my Wealth Management class.
Good morning, everyone. I hope you all had a great spring break. Anyone do something especially fun?"
"Professor E, I went home to Istanbul to visit family. It was all too short a trip but it was wonderful seeing everyone, as I'd not been home in a long time." [That was my ace teaching assistant, Cagla.]
"Henry, how about you?"
"Well, I've been working on my dissertation, so I hunkered down to move it along. I still have a lot to do but it feels good having such a good start."
"Excellent. Is everyone ready to get back to the best class in the program? [Needless to say, the class offers a resounding confirmation.]
Okay, this afternoon we're going to begin with a discussion about two Nobel laureates, Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe. I know you all have thoroughly read the assigned material including some of their seminal works, so my question is this: how would you describe the significance of their work to a client? Katie, why don't you start with Professor Markowitz?
Katie: Professor Markowitz recognized that in investing we need to consider risk as well as return. That may seem pretty obvious today, but at the time, the sole focus of investors was on which investment would provide the highest return. To the extent risk that was considered at all, investments were simply categorized as conservative or speculative. In fact, for decades, there were lists of legally approved, "safe" investments for fiduciaries such as banks and trusts. For our clients, the significant insight Markowitz introduced was the concept that a well-designed portfolio of individually risky investments could actually result in a safer portfolio. Professor Evensky, may I use the blackboard to demonstrate?
HE: Of course.
Katie: Okay, picture two very volatile investments. Although we expect that over the long-term their returns will be positive, on an annual basis their returns may vary significantly. Basically, this is our expectation of traditional investments such as stocks.
Here's a simple example:
Although stocks A and B are both very volatile, they both trend up. As my graph demonstrates, if we were to invest half of our portfolio in A and half in B, we'd end up with an overall portfolio with almost no volatility. Unfortunately, in the real world, we can't find investments that complement each other so perfectly, but we can find investments that don't move in exactly the same pattern, or as a mathematician would say, investments that are poorly correlated. That's the wisdom that Professor Markowitz introduced. So today we don't think in terms of risky investments but rather in terms of complementary investments; that's why professional advisors and wise investors are so focused on portfolio diversification.
HE: Well done, Katie. David, how would you explain Professor Sharpe's contribution to your clients?
David: Well, I'd start with this picture:
Professor Sharpe demonstrated that there are two fundamental types of risk—unsystematic and systematic. Unsystematic risks are those uniquely associated with individual investments. This kind of risk is considered unrewarded because it's risk that provides no expectation of extra return.
There are many reasons an individual investment might fail. A company may be badly managed and go belly up, or it might be well managed but fall prey to unfortunate market conditions, such as an energy company facing a collapse in oil prices. From the investor's standpoint, it doesn't matter whether the business failure is due to poor management or market forces. If the business fails, the investor is the loser.
At least theoretically, an investor may eliminate this unsystematic risk by diversifying. For example, a real estate investor owning and renting out a single-family home that ends up unoccupied would face a total loss of income, but if he or she owned ten homes, a single vacancy would mean only a 10 percent loss. Here's what unsystematic risk looks like in the stock market:
April 20, 2010 – BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Stock Price April 20, 2010 ……..……………….. $50.20
Stock Price Three months later ……………….. $28.74
I can buy a portfolio of five hundred of the bluest blue chips—all the stocks in the S&P 500—but if the market drops 20 percent, that means my diversified blue chip portfolio took a major beating. In my pie graph, that risk is the first wedge of systematic risk—market risk. Many investors say, "I know that and that's why I buy only high-quality municipal bonds." Well, as we know, bonds are subject to something called interest rate risk. That means if I buy a bond and a few years later interest rates go up, the value of my bond goes down.
Some astute investors respond by saying, "I know that. That's why I buy only one-year CDs and roll them over. That way, when rates go up, I get the new, higher return." That also sounds as if it makes sense, but rates can go down and the investor's income can drop precipitously. That risk is called reinvestment risk. (See Chapter 18, "Flight to Safety.") So, although many investors think of bonds as a simple, safe alternative to stocks, the reality is that they come with their own unique kinds of risks.
Finally, there is the last wedge—purchasing power erosion. We all know that throughout time the costs of things we buy and the services we need go up due to inflation. That's the other real risk of depending on bond income as the sole source of cash flow. Many investors get in trouble by confusing certainty with safety. Bond returns may be certain, but when you factor in inflation as a primary source of income, they're certainly not safe.
HE: David, well done. I believe your future clients will be well served by your educating them about the wisdom of the laureates.
This blog is a chapter from Harold Evensky's "Hello Harold: A Veteran Financial Advisor Shares Stories to Help Make You Be a Better Investor". Available for purchase on Amazon.


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Decoration Collections
Furniture Collections
Specialty Collections
Product FAQ
Last Chance
Refectory Table 6/8 Base Hand Forged Steel .(wrought iron)
160 x 80cm
The Le Forge Refectory Steel Table with it's curved legs and brass centre badge is one of our iconic bases. Each piece is meticulously hand forged in our own studio and treated for the Australian environment then hand finished to give it it's own character and charm. Each piece is individually hand forged by skilled craftsmen in our own manufacturing studio for Australian conditions. It won't rust if left outdoors or near the salt air of our coastliine and any slight difference in the final finish is due to the hand forged process which we consider to be merits in workmanship. It's a quality piece you will be able to keep forever.
(Pictured - Refectory Table Base and Molleges Carver)
This prestigious and original Le Forge hand crafted steel table base is available with your choice of three elegant tops.
Choose from classic Carrara Marble, Glass or Cement finish.
Ask our expert staff to help you choose which combination of table base and top will best suit your needs.
Carrara Marble
Classic Italian Marble from the Carrara region is an elegant option for your Le Forge steel table base, being a natural product you will not find two pieces the same.
It's extremely durable and you can expect it to age and gain character over time. With this in mind we use what is referred to as second grade marble.
200 x 100cm
Our glass tops are cut individually for your order, so if you'd like a different measurement to fit your space we'll happily cut it to your size
200 x 100cm with 5 cent corners
210 x 100
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