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text:
By J. Matthew McInnis
Read the full PDF.
The year 2016 appears to be an inflection point at which Iran recognized its need to move toward a more conventionally offensive and expansionist concept of warfare. This could include foreign bases and air, land, and sea power projection capabilities.
Despite this shift, Iran still primarily focuses military doctrine on defense, deterrence, and asymmetric warfare because they remain both hindered by weak offensive military capability and driven by high perceptions of threat from the US and regional adversaries.
New resources from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and future United Nations weapons sanctions relaxation may encourage further expansion into conventional offensive capabilities. However, threat perceptions, particularly from potential clashes with regional rivals or direct conflict with the US, will be the more dominant factor in the extent to which Iran reorients toward offensive warfare.
Executive Summary
This study lays out how formal and informal structures in the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) create strategy and doctrine, which institutions or individuals matter in shaping doctrinal ideas, and which historical and ideological factors drive IRI thinking about military power. The analytic framework provides a way to model the nature of IRI defensive and offensive doctrines, and it aims to explain how and why Iranian strategy and force posture may evolve as restrictions on resources and conventional weapon acquisitions are relaxed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Rather than attempting to provide Tehran's military operational manual, this study attempts to demonstrate how to conceptualize and study IRI military doctrine.
The IRI's doctrine-formation process is promulgated through a series of policy documents, with input from IRI military planners at each stage in the process. As with the US planning process, the development, interpretation, and implementation of Iranian strategy and doctrine do not always follow in a clear and linear sequence. However, the IRI's system has several distinctive elements related to both the unique consultative decision-making structures in the government and the Marxist-influenced approach toward planned economy. Understanding the writings of the informal thought oligarchy of military leaders and the most influential authors in the IRI's extensive system of think tanks and staff colleges is also crucial to comprehending modern Iranian doctrinal trends.
Historical experience, religious ideals, and ideological concerns shape the IRI's approach to war and military doctrine, but they do not determine it. Across many historical periods, from the Persian Empire, through the Islamic conquest, the Safavid dynasty, the 19th-century Qajar dynasty, the Pahlavi shahs in the 20th century, and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iranian state struggled with its relationship to modernity and its religious and political nature. Many of these unresolved issues carried over into postrevolutionary era, even as new ideological concepts became dominant and Iran faced two external existential threats—Iraq and the United States. The IRI's split military structure, which is divided between the conventional Artesh and the ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its current military thinking centered on defensive and asymmetric warfare against the United States are arguably reactions to these overlapping factors.
Several broad conclusions can be made about the characteristics of modern IRI doctrine, based on these key historical influences and formal processes, as well as a review of available IRI doctrinal materials, relevant senior leader statements, and major Iranian military exercises over the past five years. IRI military doctrine does not descend from Islamic revolutionary thought per se. IRI doctrines instead appear to draw mostly on military lessons learned to find effective, pragmatic solutions for Tehran's security challenges in the framework of the state's ideological and geostrategic objectives. Most doctrines are ad hoc, despite the overall increasing formality and complexity of the IRI's system for strategy development. There is explicit incorporation of foreign military thinking and capabilities, especially US doctrines, although ex post facto ideological and Islamic moral justification from the supreme leader for any doctrine is still required. The Artesh and the IRGC's competing military structures will remain an inherent feature of Iranian doctrine and strategy, even as the IRI leadership engages in stronger efforts to improve interoperability.
As a revolutionary state constantly worried about potential instability and counterrevolution triggered by its adversaries during conflict, the IRI sees war in 360 degrees. Iranian doctrines reflect this porousness across the spectrum of offensive and defensive operations, when an external Artesh campaign may need to quickly transition into an internal one, or when IRGC actions may move from regime defense to deterrence to power projection then back to deterrence or attempt to achieve all three objectives simultaneously.
Together these concepts can be used to form a working model of the IRI's existing doctrines, showing how they align against Tehran's defensive and offensive objectives, indicating areas of particular doctrinal strengths and weakness, and pointing to potential future directions for the Iranian military. The IRI military is still dominated by defensive doctrines oriented around four primary objectives: regime security, territorial defense, demonstrative deterrence (or shows of force), and retaliatory deterrence.
The IRI's offensive doctrines are designed primarily around exporting the revolution and Iranian influence abroad while ensuring the creation and maintenance of proxy forces that can employ retaliatory deterrence against opponents, such as Lebanese Hezbollah. These doctrines have notably remained almost entirely unconventional. The IRI generally continues to lack classic offensive doctrines to project conventional military power aiming to coerce an opponent; seize ground, air, or maritime space; or defeat or destroy an enemy's forces. However, the IRGC has increasingly integrated conventional capabilities and war-fighting concepts into its unconventional campaigns in the current Syria and Iraq conflicts.
The degree to which the IRI will become a more balanced or conventional military as the JCPOA allows for greater access to weapons and technology will be determined by the increase of defense budgetary resources, the level of the military leadership's trust and integration of the Artesh, the relaxation of the regime's ideological hesitation of appearing imperialistic through offensive conventional warfare, and perhaps most importantly, a shift in threat perception away from a dominant focus on asymmetric defense against the United States toward competition and confrontation with regional rivals and threats.
How does the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) think about using military power to achieve its security objectives? Is there one school or rather many schools of Iranian military thought? Why is Iran's military structured as it currently is? Why and how could that change, especially given the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Iran's deepening role in the regional wars in Syria and Iraq?
These are fundamentally questions of doctrine that are important to defense policymakers and military planners. Understanding how the Iranian leadership looks at military power and strategy is crucial to designing better US force posture in the region, improving security cooperation with our allies, and communicating more effective responses to Tehran's behavior in the Middle East and globally.
A state's written doctrine, such as it may exist, is essential to understanding its leadership's approach to employing armed force. However, the realities of military structure, deployments, operations, or goals do not always reflect what is officially published. What has happened or would likely happen on the battlefield is what really matters for commanders and planners on both sides.
Although doctrine can establish parameters for training, preparation, and initial campaign designs in conflict, it inevitably evolves to address the specifics of individual military challenges. In the heat of combat, sometimes this evolution can be quite rapid. Evaluating the decision-making processes, historical factors and trends, bodies of writing, and observed military behaviors related to the development of doctrine arguably provides the optimal approach for assessing how a state prepares for and will likely conduct war.
This study draws from numerous Iranian strategy and doctrinal writings, statements and interviews from key leadership figures, observation of military exercises from the past five years, and observed military behavior in crisis and conflicts since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The report attempts to build an analytic framework for examining the IRI's war-fighting concepts. It explores doctrine at the strategic level—that is, how a state's military power is designed and employed to achieve its security objectives. It does not look deeply at the more operational or tactical levels of conflict. There will be no discussion of how many missiles Iran would theoretically launch in its first salvos against US, Gulf Arab, or Israeli forces in a regional war. Neither will it focus on the latest siege tactics used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies in Syria.
Instead, this study lays out how formal and informal structures in Iran create strategy and doctrine, which institutions or individuals matter in shaping doctrinal ideas, and the historical and ideological factors that drive IRI thinking about military power. This model conceptualizes the nature of IRI defensive and offensive doctrines and aims to explain how and why Iranian strategy and force posture may evolve as restrictions on resources and conventional weapon acquisitions are relaxed under the JCPOA. Rather than attempting to provide Tehran's operational manual, this study demonstrates how to conceptualize and study IRI military doctrine.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Grizzly Buck Store
We have come to the end of our first full month of school. That means it's time for the Grizzly Buck Store. Hopefully all students have been able to reach the grade level reading requirement. Each student has the potential of earning three bucks; one for reaching the grade level requirement, an additional buck for each hundred minutes beyond the goal (limit of three).
Each grade level has a different monthly reading requirement:


text:
2017 Madrona
In Stock
This 2017 version is 50/50 Syrah and Mouvedre from the LeTendre vineyard in the lower Yakima Valley. The Madrona has a decidedly "Southern Rhone" flavor profile of spice and plum which is in strong contrast to the Bordeaux flavor profile of cherry and berry. It is also just plain "yummy". Aromatics are vibrant and the large format oak treatment (bigger barrels) has maintained the fruit notes.
Wine Specs
Vineyard Designation
Alcohol %
Product Reviews


text:
Our Mission
We combine traditional martial arts values with modern teaching methods. Our clean modern facilities and small class sizes will help you develop a lifelong love of the martial arts. From hosting seminars with world-renowned masters to holding sleepovers for kids; The Atlanta Mat Club is a place where teachers and dedicated students pursue the martial arts with a passion.
Our Classes
Our Animals on the Mat program uses gameplay to teach the fundamentals to 3-6-year-olds. Progressing into our Youth BJJ program students will develop through our use of the Seamless Jiu-Jitsu Curriculum. The Seamless Jiu-Jitsu Curriculum provides each student at every level with a clearly defined set of written goals for advancement. Instead of merely a list of techniques, the Seamless Jiu-Jitsu Curriculum is a well thought out progression of skills. With this powerful Curriculum, students are given a clear confident path from white belt to black belt and beyond. Our Women's Only and Adult Programs provide continued development and enjoyment while staying true to the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu's self-defense roots.
Our Promise
Unlike many schools, we have NO CONTRACTS and NO LONG TERM COMMITMENTS. EVER! We have a program to fit everyone in your family.


text:
We were delighted to provide the wedding marquee for our former employee Will and his beautiful wife Jess at this picturesque setting in Lancashire. With over 150 guests attending and the wedding ceremony at the church just around the corner, Will and Jess had their hearts set on their special day taking place at their family home.
After an initial site visit it was clear the garden was too uneven for the marquee size required. However, the setting was stunning and everything seemed perfect for a wedding venue. Luckily Jess' father agreed to level the garden with a digger enabling them to host their dream wedding.
We were then able to construct a wedding marquee and ensure the garden was used to its full potential with windows to one side and a clear gable end allowing guests to fully appreciate the view.
This truly was an amazing wedding which we were delighted to attend. We worked with various suppliers and it was evident a great deal of planning and preparation went into creating this special day. No stone was left unturned and all guests and family members had a thoroughly enjoyable day and night.


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Looking for something different at your wedding? Surprise your guests with a Silent Disco!
We are proud to be working in partnership with Scotland's premier silent disco provider Silent Knights.
Guests simply grab a pair of wireless headphones and music is transmitted to them, you can then switch between different genres of music from up to 3 different channels!
Up to 3 different channels of music mean you can keep everyone happy, pop for the kids, rock or R&B for the adults and swing for the grandparents!
Headphones can easily be removed and your guests can speak freely without having to shout over loud music!
Ideal if your venue has any late night noise restrictions, keep the party going after the curfew!
Eliminates any PRS restrictions your venue may have!
Subject to availability, we have special white headphones for the bride to wear!
Other ideas
Silent Ceilidh
Transmit your favourite Ceilidh songs to the headphones and everyone can get dancing! Fun for those participating, fun for those watching! Our Parakeet Transmitter means instructions can be transmitted over the headphones if needed!
Bride v Groom DJ Battle
The Bride's music versus the Grooms music, who will win the battle? Let your guests decide!
Guests channel
Ask your guests to add a request on their RSVP and create a playlist for them!


text:
Just looking at him
she cannot stand
the sight of what she sees.
She wonders what
was going through
her hide and seek.
Back then.
She is puzzled.
"free-verse" poetry from the soul
Just looking at him
she cannot stand
the sight of what she sees.
She wonders what
was going through
her hide and seek.
Back then.
She is puzzled.
When he hammers hurtful words her way,
they attack her heart
as they burn, sting, and torch
it to the ground
and sometimes she feel like
nailing her coffin shut
but instead of exchanging sour lemons
with that monster of a husband of hers
she smiles through the tears
dripping from her eyes,
reminding her with trails
of salt water down her cheeks
of why they are better off
threading the waters by themselves.
Sometimes in the middle
of one of my crying escapades
my mind gets diverted
to livelier moments.
My mood automatically changes,
the tears dry up
and I start smiling
from ear to ear
as if the gut wrenching pain
wasn't just tearing and twisting
my insides into pieces
just a few moments before.
Sinning is knowing
fair and square in the eye
that what you're doing
is drop dead wrong
but still you proceed,
justifying your actions
with pieces of the truth.
From one beauty to the next:
Feel the love within
the next time "you" look in the mirror.
You don't need to make any changes
to yourself to be more of who you are
because you already are a beautiful human being
made perfectly in every way, shape, and form.
Proudly carry the torch of your beauty
wherever you go.
Love your beautiful self
no matter which part of your body
you have insecurities about.
I am beautiful,
I cannot lie.
Even when I don't feel
like dressing up like
a beauty queen.
I am beautiful,
no one can tell me anything less
even when my hair looks a dang mess.
And, even if people
stare at me or turn their nose in disgust,
it won't matter
in how I feel about myself.
I am beautiful.
Yes, I am beautiful.
Inside and outside
of all the turmoil dwarfing
my real-time progress.
We've all been there before…
struggling with our self images,
not liking or loving the person
staring back at us in the mirror,
wishing we could change
just a pimple or a lot of our exterior.
Our thoughts can ruin our self esteems,
painting a picture of what beauty is.
It is not just the models on our tv screens
or the people in the magazines
that makes us all self-conscious of who we are.
They are just the icing on the cake
of our self destruction.
It is our thoughts
that are destroying our self worth.
Too often, we look
to make-up, plastic surgery, and everything
we can find comfort in
to make us feel better about ourselves.
Beauty RADIATES from within.
We can cover up as much
of our natural beauty as we want,
hiding in the dark,
afraid to step into the light like vampires
but the truth is:
We don't need anyone to tell us
that we are beautiful
because we are
beautiful -inside and out-
no matter who we are
or the colors of our skin.
Yea, I get that way…
The things I say and do
Is sometimes reeked with stupidity
But what can I say?
I do have my "blank stare" days,
My "forgetful" days
When all I need
Is a smack in the right direction.
Yea, just moments of "pure honesty"
Right out of the mouth of a babe like me.
Plenty of days float by
with me on the scorching ground
picking up scraps of my self-image
off the asphalt,
projecting the continuous battle
between self-love and self-hate.
Worries will keep you up at night
and leave you with a migraine in the morning.
Nothing solved.
Just a bigger mess than before.
Worries will drag you down
countless mountains of slippery slopes,
keep you on your tip toes;
expect the usual mess,
carelessly tossing you around like a rag doll,
have you flipping out
with your trail of constant moods swings,
there's not a moment of peace with this thing.
All it does is take, take, take
until you are in your grave.
Heart bled.
Mind froze.
Sadness loomed.
Burdens chewed.
Darkness descended.
This was your story yesterday.
Happiness refreshed.
Clouds removed.
Storms seized.
Light flourished.
Health regained.
This is your story today.
All the days of sadness and madness
are no longer a welcoming excuse
for blocking my mountains of blessings
filed neatly in a row
just waiting for me to receive them
with arms wide open.


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Jet Set
by Jason Oliver Nixon
Sky Writing
by Sarah Elbert
In this issue:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Also: 100 Reasons to Love Los Angeles
We are looking for expertly executed stories about travel, lifestyle and business.
TRAVEL: Destinations should be a mix of domestic and international locales, and they should be of interest for a specific reason. Perhaps a place epitomizes a new trend in traveling. Or maybe there is a fascinating but obscure event every year that makes the trip worth it. A travel piece about Paris that covers the same perennial spots—the Eiffel Tower, Notre Dame—is of much less interest than a story about Paris that speaks to what is happening there now, be it a hot new designer, examples of incredible new architecture or a bevy of new Japanese restaurants. Pieces that focus on historical sites are also OK, but give us a new angle. Service information that gives readers pertinent information about visiting a destination (hotel info, how to get there, etc.) is usually included in a sidebar or separate spread.
LIFESTYLE & BUSINESS: We are interested in profiles of notable people, whether they're actors, authors, artists, athletes, entrepreneurs or executives. If you pitch a profile, there must be a good reason for highlighting that person for that month, and a new take on the person is important. Tell us something we can't read someplace else. We're especially interested in profiles of people who can also be linked with a particular destination. The average traveler must know profile subjects.
Business trend stories should be accessible to highly educated business travelers as well as the average reader looking to stay on top of new business trends and the movers and shakers in the business world, whether they're companies, industries, people or places. Ideally, pitches will find the place where business and lifestyle intersect.
Whatever the topic, writers should bring a fresh new perspective and an ability to convey the subject in vivid detail. Readers should feel as if they're sitting down with a profile subject or wandering through the streets of a travel destination. The more in-depth, the better.
Please review a copy of the magazine for a sense of our specific departments and tone.
We use AP Style, with some variations (ie. italicize movies, books, etc.) and we have a 4-month lead-time. Features range from 600–2,000 words. Departments include very small 100-word pieces to longer 500-word columns. If your pitch is accepted, please remember to include sources for fact-checking. Pitches can be sent to firstname.lastname@example.com, or to: Delta Sky Editors, 220 S. 6th St. Suite 500, Minneapolis, MN 55402.
MSP Communications, 220 South 6th Street, Suite 500, Minneapolis, MN, 55402
© 2019 Key Enterprises LLC. All rights reserved


text:
Whether you're traveling for pleasure or for business you should be secure! The last thing you want when on-the-go is the stress of having your data stolen – physically or digitally.
Airports, tourists traps, hotels, and hostels are all hotspots for cybercriminal activity. Travelers are usually warned to be on the lookout in these types of spots and there are plenty of products promising to help keep you safe from pickpockets, skimmers, and scammers.
But do you really need all this extra security weighing you down? We want to save you some bucks and keep your luggage light, so here are our picks for what's essential (and what's not!) when you're on the road.
What You DO Need to Buy for Traveling
VPNsBeing away from home means you'll be using public wifi – but before you connect, turn on your VPN! The trick is to download a VPN for your mobile devices that will work in your vacation location. A good gauge of if it will work in most countries is to find out if it works in China, whose government is more determined than most at blocking VPNs. Read user reviews, Google your VPN, and research thoroughly before trusting that it will work where you want it to!
In addition to providing you with a more secure access to the internet, VPNs may also save you the annoyance of being blocked from certain websites. In many countries, especially in Europe and Asia, you may find that some of your favorite websites (Netflix, Facebook, Uber) are blocked. With a VPN you should zip right past any internet filters and onto the desired URL!
Wireless ChargerWith the proliferation and popularity of mobile devices, charging stations continue to pop up in some of the most unexpected, but ever-so-convenient places. So why would you even need a wireless charger? It never hurts to have one in case there are no available outlets to be found, but cybercriminals have started to take advantage of dying devices by juice jacking them. If you happen to plug in your charger to one of these faux charging stations or kiosks, the data on your device could be accessed and downloaded, or a virus may be uploaded onto your machine. Either way, you're in trouble and a wireless charger is an easy way to avoid this altogether.
If you choose to forego a wireless charger, always examine the socket before you plug in your devices. Is it actually connected to something? Is it in a place that seems too good to be true? Is there anything else suspicious about it? Double-check that your device is actually charging as well. Better safe than sorry!
Privacy ScreenIf you're planning on using your electronics in public, it doesn't hurt, and doesn't cost much, to add a privacy screen to cover your laptops and phones. Avoid pesky shoulder surfers, or just overly curious lurkers, from seeing what's on your screen. If you're traveling for work and there's a risk displaying confidential information in are in a public area and you absolutely cannot wait until you are in a private location, these are an essential to maintain privacy!
What You DON'T Need to Buy for Traveling
RFID-Blocking AccessoriesYou can purchase almost any type of luggage with RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Blocking capabilities. For a bit more money, there are wallets, totes, purses, backpacks, suitcases and more products all promising to help protect you from RFID skimmers, but do you really need. But do you really need to spend more when not a single crime involving an RFID-enabled device has been reported in the public domain?
RFID skimming is a possibility, the technology allowing it to happen does exist and much RFID-Blocking gear does really block RFID waves. It doesn't hurt you to buy a wallet with RFID protection, but you probably don't need a jacket and fanny pack and pants that are ALL RFID blocking. We aren't saying you should or you shouldn't, but why spend the extra money when the crime just isn't happening?
Theft-Proof Bag (DIY Your Own!)While a theft-proof bag may save you from being pickpocketed, a bag filled with gadgets to keep others from slipping in won't prevent someone from just taking the entire bag! It may not be worth it to buy an expensive, bulky, theft-proof bag when you could DIY your own backpack or purse to be pickpocket-proof! Try one of our ideas below, or Google more DIY theft proof solutions:
- Make the zipper harder to unzip by attaching a carabiner or a keyring to the zipper and hooking it onto the strap of the bag. Or try this super secure method!
- Make your bag slash proof by sewing plastic cutting boards where thieves might cut into your bag to slip out your devices.
- Attach your wallet or phone case to an interior zipper in your bag with keyrings. This way, no pickpocket will be able to pull out your valuables very easily.
Cybercriminals have many ways to get to your data to your data digitally and physically – they can hack into your devices or take them off your person. It's important that you take necessary precautions to keep your data safe, but you don't need to weigh down your bag or spend extra bucks on over-the-top tech gear. All you need to do is travel smart by staying aware and cautious!
Meg Krafft
Latest posts by Meg Krafft (see all)
- NCSAM '18 Protect Our Data Infographic - October 1, 2018
- #NCSAM Locker Room - September 25, 2018
- Cuddling Up with Your Data - August 30, 2018


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Andreas Rieckhof, State Secretary in the Ministry of Economics, Transport and Innovation, opened Friday a new "Creative Space for Technical Innovations (CSTI)" at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (HAW) using a virtual bottle of bits and bytes instead of champagne. This exciting, but unusual inauguration ceremony unveiled a whole new world at CSTI.
The innovative, experimental space for forward-looking digital systems is set to become a hub of creativity and innovation where students and start-ups will link up with commerce to come up with responses to pressing issues such as digitalisation, Industry 4.0 and smart cities. Kai von Luck, Professor of Applied Computer Science and Director of CSTI, said: "This is to become a place for experiments, actually experiencing possibilities, collaborations, knowledge transfer and founding companies."
Perception of virtual spaces
Commenting on the approach, Rieckhof noted: "Incubators and accelerator programmes form centres of entrepreneurship in today's modern IT sector". He added: "These experimental laboratories like Creative Space are important elements in playful methods of developing and implementing new ideas and ideally, making them ready for the market."
Rieckhof then tried out an idea developed by Jonathan Becker, a 23-year-old student at HAW. Becker has been working on perception in virtual spaces and gave Rieckhof a virtual headset to glimpse a fully-furnished loft complete with couch, bed, a grand piano and a white cat playing in background.
Becker's creation includes a panoramic view with great attention to detail including a magnificent chandelier. This proved a tricky feature. As soon as someone stepped onto a ramp in this virtual world, the room began to tilt and the viewer saw things from the perspective of a fly on the wall. Another step and things were turned upside down.
Breaking boundaries
Such experiences are unusual and unaccustomed. Becker noted: "Wobbly knees during such experiences are not unusual and soon revert to normal." He then explained the idea behind his B.A. thesis in computer science. "Anything is possible in a virtual environment and I wish to test limits and break boundaries with this application." A bird's eye experience of a space may interest the game industry. Architects and interior designers are other possible users, said Becker.
Intelligent, mood-reflecting mirror
Maria Lüdemann, 24, also presented her M.A. project focusing on an intelligent mirror that reflects both physical and emotional conditions. Lüdemann explained: "That is suitable e.g. for preventing burnout. Although we are aware of our need for a break, the mirror proves this feeling using objective data." The mirror can take a daily photograph as proof of visible change. The smart object can also be combined with sleep and activity trackers, an analytical scales or a blood pressure monitor. And in future, the mirror may be able to remind the user of appointments or link up with social media.
Experimenting with forward-looking technologies
More than 20 companies and 50 scientists visited CSTI during the founding phase where an interdisciplinary team of students and instructors tackle entire series of different projects focusing on virtual and augmented reality, artificial intelligence and human computer interaction. This early interest has been nurtured in the "Living Place" where von Luck has been researching living environments in the future.
Xing founder Lars Hinrichs' Apartimentum
Experimenting with forward-looking technologies is not new at HAW. Lars Hinrichs, founder of Xing, has already used some of the smart home applications developed in the "Living Place" in his Apartimentum, which is being hailed as Germany's most intelligent house since it opened last autumn. HAW's ideas, practical research and creative incubator for new ideas, products and applications are already working well.


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This is the second of two articles in which I look at companies within the coatings industry which have retraced from their respective 52 week highs. The first article covered PPG and this article covers Sherwin-Williams.
- Following the 2017 Valspar acquisition, SHW is the leader in the highly fragmented coatings industry with the top 10 suppliers holding a ~55% market share.
- Goodwill and Intangible Assets now comprises over 64% of SHW's Total Assets.
- SHW's Long-Term Debt to EBITDA ratio upon completion of the Valspar acquisition rose to 4.5Xs. At its current ~4.1Xs, it is still elevated but management is diligently working toward deleveraging.
- I view SHW as a superior long-term investment than PPG.
- Despite a ~15% retracement from its 52 week high I still view SHW as being slightly overvalued and am of the opinion we will encounter further market turbulence which may reduce SHW's share price further.
This article regarding The Sherwin-Williams Company (NYSE: SHW) is a follow up to my recent Embrace Market Pullbacks and PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) articles.
In the Embrace Market Pullbacks article I suggested investors avoid panicking when markets encounter 'speed bumps' and to view pullbacks as opportunities to either add to existing positions or to initiate positions at more favorable valuations.
In my PPG article I indicated that I had given PPG and SHW a cursory review a few months ago and found both to be somewhat expensive for my liking. I didn't bother writing about either company and simply moved on although I did diarize to analyze PPG and SHW subsequent to the release of their Q3 results (October 18th and October 25th respectively).
My reasoning for moving up my PPG and SHW reviews, however, was prompted by last week's market pullback. What I noticed was that PPG's share price ($95.02) is ~22% below its 52 week high and that for SHW ($406.97) is ~15% below its 52 week high and neither stock price experienced at least a bit of a 'snap back' following the 2 day pullback.
I have already indicated that I will PASS on investing in PPG. In this article I look at whether SHW is now attractively valued.
SHW, founded in 1866 and incorporated in Ohio in 1884, is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers primarily in North and South America with additional operations in the Caribbean region, Europe, Asia and Australia.
Source: SHW – 2017 Annual Report page 3 of 85
On June 1, 2017, SHW completed the acquisition of The Valspar Corporation in an all cash transaction for a total purchase price of $8.9B net of divestiture proceeds of $0.431B from the sale of Valspar's North American industrial wood coatings business to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd..
Following this acquisition, SHW reorganized into 3 reportable operating segments: The Americas Group, Consumer Brands Group and Performance Coatings Group. The following images provide an overview of how the segments have been realigned together with Sales and Profit results for Q2 2018.
Source: SHW – Operating Segment Reconciliation Q2 2018
SHW has the leading market share among professional painters, who value brand, quality, and store proximity far more than their do-it-yourself counterparts.
SHW charges a premium for its paints but since paint typically only accounts for ~10 – 20% of painting contractor costs, painting contractors are generally not especially price-sensitive about paint costs. SHW's paint might cost a bit more than that of competitors but paint contractors save on overall costs by purchasing high-quality paint that reduces preparation and application time (ie. lower labor costs); SHW's paint is well known in the industry for having desirable characteristics, including the need to apply fewer coats, longer lasting, ease of application, and less cure time.
In SHW's May 22, 2018 Financial Community Presentation, SHW presenters discussed at length the following 5 reasons for solid growth prospects.
- New construction;
- Repaint and remodeling;
- Protective and marine;
- Global Manufacturing;
- Auto Refinish.
The following images show the extent to which the industry participants have changed in the last few years. This images reflect the industry in 2015.
Source: Financial Community Presentation - May 26, 2016
This image reflects the industry participants in 2017 following SHW's acquisition of Valspar.
Source: SHW - May 22, 2018 Financial Community Presentation
Please click here to read the complete version of this article.
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Gyve Safavi
Group Strategy Director
Gyve joined Miroma in 2018 leading the ecommerce platform Showcase Beauty, as well as supporting business growth and development across the group's portfolio.
Prior to working at Miroma, Gyve worked at AKQA leading partnerships, marketing and acquisitions globally, working closely with their Executive Board.
Before moving to AKQA, Gyve led WPP business development in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). In his role he worked with the global CEO, Sir Martin Sorrell acting as Chief of Staff, responsible for strategic briefings, global partnerships and coordination with agency and client leaders.
Gyve started his career at Procter & Gamble where he spent 8 years working across a wide range of roles from Finance to Marketing. His last position at P&G was Brand Manager for the Gillette Female Shave Care business across EMEA.