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Posts tagged 'volatility'
January a Ball After Year-End Fall
Investors were cheerfully dancing last month after the stock market posted its best January in 30 years and the best monthly performance since October 2015 (see chart below). More specifically, the S&P 500 index started the year by catapulting +7.9% higher (the best January since 1987), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1,672 points to 25,000, or +7.2%. But over the last few months there has been plenty of heartburn and volatility. The December so-called Santa Claus rally did not occur until a large pre-Christmas pullback. From the September record high, stocks temporarily fell about -20% before the recent jolly +15% post-Christmas rebound.
Source: FactSet via The Wall Street Journal
Although investors have been gleefully boogying on the short-run financial dance floor, there have been plenty of issues causing uncomfortable blisters. At the top of the list is China-U.S. trade. The world is eagerly watching the two largest global economic powerhouses as they continue to delicately dance through trade negotiations. Even though neither country has slipped or fallen since the 90-day trade truce, which began on December 1 in Buenos Aires, the stakes remain high. If an agreement is not reached by March 2, tariffs on imported Chinese goods would increase to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, thereby raising prices for U.S. consumers and potentially leading to further retaliatory responses from Beijing.
When it comes to the subjects of intellectual property protection and forced technology transfers of American companies doing business in China, President Xi Jinping has been uncomfortably stepping on President Donald Trump's toes. Nothing has been formally finalized, however Chinese officials have signaled they are willing to make some structural reforms relating to these thorny issues and have also expressed a willingness to narrow the trade deficit with our country by purchasing more of our exports. Besides procuring more American energy goods, the Chinese have also committed to buy 5,000,000 tons of our country's soybeans to feed China's hungry population of 1.4 billion people.
Reaching a trade settlement is important for both countries, especially in light of the slowing Chinese economy (see chart below) and the dissipating stimulus benefits of the 2018 U.S. tax cuts. Slowing growth in China has implications beyond our borders as witnessed by slowing growth in Europe as evidenced by protests we have seen in France and the contraction of German manufacturing (the first time in over four years). Failed Brexit talks of the U.K. potentially leaving the European Union could add fuel to the global slowdown fire if an agreement cannot be reached by the March 29th deadline in a couple months.
Source: Wind via The Wall Street Journal
While the temporary halt to the longest partial federal government shutdown in history (35 days) has brought some short-term relief to the 800,000 government workers/contractors who did not receive pay, the political standoff over border security may last longer than expected, which may further dampen U.S. economic activity and growth. Whether the hot-button issue of border wall funding is resolved by February 15th will determine if another shutdown is in the cards.
Despite China trade negotiations and the government shutdown deadlock placing a cloud over financial markets, brighter skies have begun to emerge in other areas. First and foremost has been the positive shift in positioning by the Federal Reserve as it relates to monetary policy. Not only has Jay Powell (Fed Chairman) communicated a clear signal of being "patient" on future interest rate target increases, but he has also taken the Fed off of "autopilot" as it relates to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet – a process that can hinder economic growth. Combined, these shifts in strategy by the Fed have been enthusiastically received by investors, which has been a large contributor to the +15% rebound in stock prices since the December lows. Thanks to this change in stance, the inverted yield curve bogeyman that typically precedes post-World War II recessions has been held at bay as evidenced by the steepening yield curve (see chart below).
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
Other areas of strength include the recent employment data, which showed 304,000 jobs added in January, the 100th consecutive month of increased employment. Fears of an imminent recession that penetrated psyches in the fourth quarter have abated significantly in January in part because of the notable strength seen in 4th quarter corporate profits, which so far have increased by +12% from last year, according to FactSet. The strength and rebound in overall commodity prices, including oil, seem to indicate any potential looming recession is likely further out in time than emotionally feared.
Source: Calafia Beach Pundit
As the chart above shows, over the last four years, spikes in fear (red line) have represented beneficial buying opportunities of stocks (blue line). The pace of gains in January is just as unsustainable as the pace of fourth-quarter losses were in stock prices. Uncertainties may remain on trade, shutdowns, geopolitics, and other issues but don't throw away your investing dance shoes quite yet…the ball and music experienced last month could continue for a longer than expected period of time.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (February 1, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Will the Halloween Trick Turn into a Holiday Treat?
The interest rate boogeyman came out in October as fears of an overzealous Federal Reserve monetary policy paralyzed investors into thinking rising interest rates could murder the economy into recession. But other ghostly issues frightened the stock market last month as well, including mid-term elections, heightening trade war tensions, a weakening Chinese economy, a fragile European economy (especially Italy), rising oil prices, weakening emerging market economies, anti-Semitism, politically motivated bomb threats, and anxiety over a potential recession after an aged economic expansion embarks on its 10th consecutive year of gains.
This ghoulish short-term backdrop resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering a -5.1% drop last month, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ index screamed even lower by -9.2%. The results for the full year 2018 look more constructive – the S&P 500 is up +1.4% and the NASDAQ has climbed +5.8%.
Should the dreadful October result be surprising? Historically speaking, seasonality in the stock market has been quite scary during the month of October, especially if you consider the spooky stock Market Crash of 1929 (-19.7%) , the 1987 Crash (-21.5%), and the bloody collapse during the October 2008 Financial Crisis (-16.8%). There is good news, however. Seasonally, the holiday months of November and December typically tend to treat investors more cheerfully during the so-called "Santa Claus Rally" period. Since 1950 through 2017, the average return for stocks during November has been +1.4% (45 up years and 23 down years). For December, the results are even better at +1.5% (51 up years and 17 down years).
|November (1950-2017)
|December (1950-2017)
|Up Years
|Down Years
|Up Years
|Down Years
|2017 2.40%
|2015 -0.02%
|2017 1.08%
|2015 -1.87%
|2016 3.29%
|2011 -0.32%
|2016 1.76%
|2014 -0.33%
|2014 2.45%
|2010 -0.44%
|2013 2.31%
|2007 -0.76%
|2013 2.68%
|2008 -7.48%
|2012 0.70%
|2005 -0.10%
|2012 0.28%
|2007 -4.18%
|2011 0.86%
|2002 -6.03%
|2009 5.74%
|2000 -8.01%
|2010 5.99%
|1996 -2.15%
|2006 1.66%
|1994 -3.93%
|2009 1.48%
|1986 -2.83%
|2005 3.52%
|1993 -1.29%
|2008 1.65%
|1983 -0.87%
|2004 3.86%
|1991 -4.39%
|2006 1.26%
|1981 -3.01%
|2003 0.71%
|1988 -1.89%
|2004 3.25%
|1980 -3.39%
|2002 5.71%
|1987 -8.51%
|2003 5.08%
|1975 -1.15%
|2001 7.52%
|1984 -1.51%
|2001 0.76%
|1974 -1.78%
|1999 1.92%
|1976 -0.78%
|2000 0.41%
|1969 -1.87%
|1998 5.91%
|1974 -5.32%
|1999 5.78%
|1968 -4.16%
|1997 4.46%
|1973 -11.39%
|1998 5.64%
|1966 -0.15%
|1996 7.34%
|1971 -0.25%
|1997 1.57%
|1961 -0.32%
|1995 4.10%
|1969 -3.41%
|1995 1.74%
|1957 -3.31%
|1992 3.03%
|1965 -0.88%
|1994 1.26%
|1990 6.00%
|1964 -0.52%
|1993 0.98%
|1989 1.65%
|1963 -1.05%
|1992 1.01%
|1986 2.15%
|1956 -3.10%
|1991 11.19%
|1985 6.51%
|1951 -0.95%
|1990 2.48%
|1983 1.74%
|1950 -0.26%
|1989 2.14%
|1982 3.60%
|1988 1.48%
|1981 3.27%
|1987 7.28%
|1980 10.24%
|1985 4.51%
|1979 4.26%
|1984 2.24%
|1978 0.61%
|1982 1.50%
|1977 2.86%
|1979 1.68%
|1975 2.47%
|1978 1.16%
|1972 4.56%
|1977 0.28%
|1970 4.74%
|1976 5.25%
|1968 4.80%
|1973 1.79%
|1967 0.75%
|1972 1.18%
|1966 0.31%
|1971 8.62%
|1962 10.16%
|1970 5.68%
|1961 3.77%
|1967 2.63%
|1960 2.97%
|1965 0.90%
|1959 1.52%
|1964 0.39%
|1958 1.78%
|1963 2.44%
|1957 3.17%
|1962 1.35%
|1955 7.64%
|1960 5.08%
|1954 7.71%
|1959 2.03%
|1953 0.41%
|1958 4.78%
|1952 4.31%
|1956 1.50%
|1955 0.29%
|1954 5.85%
|1953 0.12%
|1952 3.47%
|1951 3.62%
|1950 3.81%
While the last 31 days may have been distressing, at Sidoxia we understand that terrifying short-term volatility is a necessary requirement for long-term investors, if you desire the sweet appreciation of long-term gains. Fortunately at Sidoxia our long-term investors have benefited quite handsomely over the last 10 years from our half-glass-full perspective. The name Sidoxia actually is derived from the Greek word for "optimism" (aisiodoxia).
Performance has been fruitful in recent years, but the almost decade-long bull market has not been all smooth sailing (see Series of Unfortunate Events), as you can see from the undulating 10-year chart below (2008-2018). Do you remember the Flash Crash, Debt Ceiling, Greek Crisis, Arab Spring, Crimea, Ebola, Sequestration, and Taper Tantrum, among many other events? Similar to the volatility experienced in recent weeks, all these aforementioned events caused scary downdrafts as well.
The S&P 500 hit a low of 666 in March 2009, but even with the significant fall last month, the stock market has more than quadrupled in value to 2,711 today.
The compounding benefits of long-term investing are quite evident over the last decade when you consider the record profits of the stock market. Compounding benefits apply to individual stocks as well, and Sidoxia and its clients have experienced this first hand through ownership in positions in stocks like Amazon.com Inc. (+2,692% in 10 years), Apple Inc. (+1,324%), and Google (parent Alphabet) (+507%), and many other less-familiar growth companies have allowed our client portfolios and hedge fund to outperform their benchmarks over longer periods of time. Although we are proud of our long-term performance, we have definitely had periods of under performance, and there will come a time in which a more defensive stance will be required. However, panicking is very rarely the best course of action when you are talking about your long-term investment strategy. Staying the course is paramount.
During periods of heightened volatility, like we experienced in October, the importance of owning a broadly diversified portfolio across asset classes (including stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, emerging markets, growth, value, etc.) is worth noting. Of course an asset allocation should be followed according to a risk tolerance appropriate for your unique circumstances. As financial markets and interest rates gyrate, investors should get in the practice of rebalancing portfolios. For example, at Sidoxia, we are consistently harvesting our gains and opportunistically redeploying those proceeds into unloved areas in which we see better long-term appreciation opportunities. This whole investment process is designed for reducing risk and maximizing returns.
As in some famously scary stock market periods in the past, October turned out to be another frightening month for investors. The good news is that we have seen this scary movie many times in the past, and we have lived to tell the tale. The economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels and still rising, consumer and business confidence levels are near all-time highs, and interest rates remain historically low despite the Fed's gradual interest rate hiking policy. While Halloween has definitely worried many investors, history tells us that previous tricks may turn into holiday treats!
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complimentary newsletter (November 1, 2018). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Time Arbitrage: Investing vs. Speculation
The clock is ticking, and for many investors that makes the allure of short-term speculation more appealing than long-term investing. Of course the definition of "long-term" is open for interpretation. For some traders, long-term can mean a week, a day, or an hour. Fortunately, for those that understand the benefits of time arbitrage, the existence of short-term speculators creates volatility, and with volatility comes opportunity for long-term investors.
What is time arbitrage? The concept is not new and has been addressed by the likes of Louis Lowenstein, Ralph Wanger, Bill Miller, and Christopher Mayer. Essentially, time arbitrage is exploiting the benefits of moving against the herd and buying assets that are temporarily out of favor because of short-term fears, despite healthy long-term fundamentals. The reverse holds true as well. Short-term euphoria never lasts forever, and experienced investors understand that continually following the herd will eventually lead you to the slaughterhouse. Thinking independently, and going against the grain is ultimately what leads to long-term profits.
Successfully executing time arbitrage is easier said than done, but if you have a systematic, disciplined process in place that assists you in identifying panic and euphoria points, then you are well on your way to a lucrative investment career.
Winning via Long-Term Investing
Legg Mason has a relevant graphical representation of time arbitrage:
The first key point to realize from the chart is that in the short-run, it is very difficult to distinguish between gambling/speculating and true investing. In the short-run (left side of graph), speculators can make nearly as much profits as long-term investors. As famed long-term investor Benjamin Graham astutely states:
"In the short-run, the market is a voting machine. In the long-run, it's a weighing machine."
Or in other words, speculative strategies can periodically outperform in the short run (above the horizontal mean return line), while thoughtful long-term investing can underperform. Like a gambler/speculator dumping money into a slot machine in Las Vegas, the gambler may win in the short-run, but over the long-run, the "house" always wins.
Financial Institutions are notorious for throwing up strategies on the wall like strands of spaghetti. If some short-term outperforming products randomly stick, then financial institutions often market the bejesus out of the funds to unsuspecting investors, until the strategies eventually fall off the wall.
Beware o' Short-Termism
I believe Jack Gray of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo got it right when he said, "Excessive short-termism results in permanent destruction of wealth, or at least permanent transfer of wealth." What's led to the excessive short-termism in the financial markets (see Short-Termism article)? For starters, technology and information are spreading faster than ever with the proliferation of the internet, creating a sense of urgency (often a false sense) to react or trade on that information. With 3 billion people online and 5 billion people operating mobile phones globally, no wonder investors are getting overwhelmed with a massive amount of short-term data.
Next, trading costs have also declined dramatically in recent decades to the point where brokerage firms are offering free trades on various products. Lower trading costs mean less friction, which often leads to excessive and pointless, profit-reducing trading in reaction to meaningless news (i.e., "noise"). Lastly, the genesis of ETFs (exchange traded funds) has induced a speculative fervor, among those investors dreaming to participate in the latest hot trend. Usually, by the time an ETF has been created, any exploitable trend has already been exploited. In other words, the low-hanging profit fruits have already been picked, making long-term excess returns tougher to achieve.
There is rarely a scarcity of short-term fears. Currently, concerns vary between Federal Reserve monetary policy, political legislation, Middle East terrorism, foreign exchange rates, inflation, and other fear-induced issues du jour. Markets may be overbought in the short-run, and/or an unforeseen issue may derail the current bull market advance. However, for investors who can put on their long-term thinking caps and understand the concept of time arbitrage, opportunistically buying oversold ideas and selling over-hyped ones should lead to significant profits.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Sweating Your Way to Investment Success
There are many ways to make money in the financial markets, but if this was such an easy endeavor, then everybody would be trading while drinking umbrella drinks on their private islands. I mean with all the bright blinking lights, talking baby day traders, and software bells and whistles, how difficult could it actually be?
Unfortunately, financial markets have a way of driving grown men (and women) to tears, usually when confidence is at or near a peak. The best investors leave their emotions at the door and follow a systematic disciplined process. Investing can be a meat grinder, but the good news is one does not need to have a 90% success rate to make it lucrative. Take it from Peter Lynch, who averaged a +29% return per year while managing the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments from 1977-1990. "If you're terrific in this business you're right six times out of 10," says Lynch.
Sweating Way to Success
If investing is so tough, then what is the recipe for investment success? As the saying goes, money management requires 10% inspiration and 90% perspiration. Or as strategist and long-time investor Don Hays notes, "You are only right on your stock purchases and sales when you are sweating." Buying what's working and selling what's not, doesn't require a lot of thinking or sweating (see Riding the Wave), just basic pattern recognition. Universally loved stocks may enjoy the inertia of upward momentum, but when the music stops for the Wall Street darlings, investors rarely can hit the escape button fast enough. Cutting corners and taking short-cuts may work in the short-run, but usually ends badly.
Real profits are made through unique insights that have not been fully discovered by market participants, or in other words, distancing oneself from the herd. Typically this means investing in reasonably priced companies with significant growth prospects, or cheap out-of-favor investments. Like dieting, this is easy to understand, but difficult to execute. Pulling the trigger on unanimously hated investments or purchasing seemingly expensive growth stocks requires a lot of blood, sweat, and tears. Eating doughnuts won't generate the conviction necessary to justify the valuation and excess expected return for analyzed securities.
Times Have Changed
Investing in stocks is difficult enough with equity fund flows hemorrhaging out of investor accounts like the asset class is going out of style. Stocks' popularity haven't been helped by the heightened volatility, as evidenced by the multi-year trend in the schizophrenic volatility index (VIX) – escalated by the international geopolitics and presidential elections. Globalization, which has been accelerated by technology, has only increased correlations between domestic market and international markets. In decades past, concerns over economic activity in Iceland, Dubai, and Greece may not even make the back pages of The Wall Street Journal. Today, news travels at the speed of a "Tweet" and eventually results in a sprawling front page headline.
The equity investing game may be more difficult today, but investing for retirement has never been more important. Stuffing money under the mattress in Treasuries, money market accounts, CDs, or other conservative investments may feel good in the short run, but will likely not cover inflation associated with rising fuel, food, healthcare, and leisure costs. Regardless of your investment strategy, if your goal is to earn excess returns, you may want to check the moistness of your armpits – successful long-term investing requires a lot of sweat.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in ETFC, VXX, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC "Contact" page.
Thank You Volatility
"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it." -Warren Buffett
We've had some choppy markets and that's fine by me. Great investors love uncertainty because volatility equates to opportunity. Selling or shorting into volatile euphoria and buying into panic is a time-tested, wealth creating strategy. On the other hand, when everything is consistently moving in one direction, either upwards or downwards, investing can be an easy and straight forward momentum game. Buy something and watch it go up…short something and watch it go down.
In tough, choppy, trendless markets, identifying trends by active traders becomes more challenging. During tricky markets like we're in now is when the wheat gets separated from the chaff. Day traders and speculators act on a zig one day and are forced to zag the next. Because of the volatile, whippy market dynamics, this type of active trading by individuals rapidly destroys portfolios, not only because of the transaction costs and taxes, but also due to impact costs and spread losses (i.e., bid-ask).
Often, the greater losses come from the behavioral aspects of active trading. Performance chasing and/or the pursuit of overzealous loss mitigation frequently are driven by the destructively entrenched emotions of fear and greed. In the past, I can't tell you how many times I have rushed into a highflying stock, only to see it pull back down -15-20%, in short order. On the flip side, how often have stocks bounced significantly, after I've made a panicked sale? Too many, unfortunately. Most investors don't take to heart the fact that whenever you initiate a trade, you need to be right twice to optimize your profits. In other words, the security you initially sell needs to go lower (i.e., you should have kept the original investment), AND the security you subsequently buy needs to go higher (i.e., you shouldn't have purchased the new investment in the first place).
Even in the cases in which the balance of the buy/sale trades becomes a wash, the trading costs and taxes will eat the active trader alive. Unfortunately, the other outcome of losing on both sides of the trade (the purchase goes lower and sale goes higher) is all too common. For example, the purchase you falls by -3%, and the investment you sold climbs +10%. Doing nothing would have been the best outcome!
All this investment tail-chasing inevitably results in a lot of portfolio bloodletting. There is plenty of academic research that shows practically all day traders lose money. Terrance Odean from Cal-Berkeley used 14 years of day trader data to conclude that more than 98% of day traders lose money. Even for those traders able to make a profit in the short run, usually the success doesn't last very long:
- 40% of day traders quit within a month
- 87% of traders quit within 3 years
- 93% of traders quit within 5 years
Other sources besides Odean show the percentage of day trading losers as greater than 95%, and if you don't trust the academic data, then simply ask your accountant what percentage of his/her active trading clients make a profit, after considering all taxes and trading costs.
While I may not necessarily fully rejoice in the pain and carnage of day traders, I am always thankful for these choppy markets. Without volatility, anybody can make money in upward trending markets (e.g., day traders did better in the mo-mo 1990s), but in those markets long-term opportunities become sparse. Without the transitory headlines of tightening Federal Reserve policy, negative interest rates, a strong dollar, and political dysfunction, I would not have a professional investing job. And for that blessing, I want to sincerely say, "Thank you volatility."
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Out of the Woods?
In the middle of the 24/7 news cycle, many investors get distracted by the headline du jour, much like a baby gets distracted by a shiny new object. While investor moods have been swinging violently back and forth, October's performance has bounced back like a flying tennis ball. So far, the reversal in the S&P 500 performance has more than erased the -9% correction occurring in August and September. Could we finally be out of the woods, or will geopolitics and economic factors scare investors through Halloween and year-end?
Given recent catapulting stock prices, investor amnesia has erased the shear horror experienced over the last few months – this is nothing new for emotional stock market participants. As I wrote in Controlling the Lizard Brain, human brains have evolved the almond-shaped tissue in our brains (amygdala) that controlled our ancestors' urge to flee ferocious lions. Today the urge is to flee scary geopolitical and economic headlines.
I expanded on the idea here:
"When the brain in functioning properly, the prefrontal cortex (the front part of the brain in charge of reasoning) is actively communicating with the amygdala. Sadly, for many people, and investors, the emotional response from the amygdala dominates the rational reasoning portion of the prefrontal cortex. The best investors and traders have developed the ability of separating emotions from rational decision making, by keeping the amygdala in check."
Evidence of lizard brains fear for flight happened just two months ago when the so-called "Fear Gauge" (VIX – Volatility Index) hit a stratospherically frightening level of 53 (see chart below), reached only once over the last few decades (2008-09 Financial Crisis).
Just as quickly as slowing China growth and a potential Fed interest rate hike caused investors to crawl underneath their desks during August (down –11% in four days), while biting their fingernails, investors have now sprung outside to the warm sunshine. The end result has been an impressive, mirror-like +11% increase in stock prices (S&P 500) over the last 18 trading days.
Has anything really changed over the last few weeks? Probably not. Economists, strategists, analysts, and other faux-soothsayers get paid millions of dollars in a fruitless attempt to explain day-to-day (or hour-by-hour) volatility in the stock markets. One Nobel Prize winner, Paul Samuelson, understood the random nature of stock prices when he observed, "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions." The pundits are no better at consistently forecasting stock prices.
As I have reiterated many times before, the vast majority of the pundits do not manage money professionally – the only people you should be paying attention to are successful long-term investors. Even listening to veteran professional investors can be dangerous because there is often such a wide dispersion of opinions based on varying time horizons, strategies, and risk tolerances.
Skepticism remains rampant regarding the sustainability of the bull market as demonstrated by the -$100 billion+ pulled out of domestic equity funds during 2015 (Source: ICI). The Volatility Index (VIX) shows us the low-hanging fruit of pessimism has been picked with the metric down -73% from August. With legislative debt ceiling and sequestration debates ahead in the coming weeks, we could hit some more choppy waters. Short-term volatility may resurrect itself, but the economy keeps chugging along, interest rates remain near all-time lows, and stock valuations, broadly speaking, remain reasonable. Investors may not be out of the woods yet, but one thing remains certain…an ever-changing stream of fearful headlines are likely to continue flooding in, which means we must all keep our lizard brains in check.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
The Art of Catching Falling Knives
"In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity." ~Albert Einstein
It was a painful week for bullish investors in the stock market as evidenced by the -1,018 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, equivalent to approximately a -6% decline. The S&P 500 index did not fare any better, and the loss for the tech-heavy NASDAQ index was down closer to -7% for the week.
The media is attributing much of the short-term weakness to a triple Chinese whammy of factors: 1) Currency devaluation of the Yuan; 2) Weaker Chinese manufacturing data registering in at the lowest level in over six years; and 3) A collapsing Chinese stock market.
As the second largest economy on the planet, developments in China should not be ignored, however these dynamics should be put in the proper context. With respect to China's currency devaluation, Scott Grannis at Calafia Beach Pundit puts the foreign exchange developments in proper perspective. If you consider the devaluation of the Yuan by -4%, this change only reverses a small fraction of the Chinese currency appreciation that has taken place over the last decade (see chart below). Grannis rightfully points out the -25% collapse in the value of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar is much more significant than the minor move in the Yuan. Moreover, although the move by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) makes America's exports to China less cost competitive, this move by Chinese bankers is designed to address exactly what investors are majorly concern about – slowing growth in Asia.
Although the weak Chinese manufacturing data is disconcerting, this data is nothing new – the same manufacturing data has been very choppy over the last four years. On the last China issue relating to its stock market, investors should be reminded that despite the massive decline in the Shanghai Composite, the index is still up by more than +50% versus a year ago (see chart below)
Fear the Falling Knife?
Given the fresh carnage in the U.S. and foreign markets, is now the time for investors to attempt to catch a falling knife? Catching knives for a living can be a dangerous profession, and many investors – professionals and amateurs alike – have lost financial fingers and blood by attempting to prematurely purchase plummeting securities. Rather than trying to time the market, which is nearly impossible to do consistently, it's more important to have a disciplined, unemotional investing framework in place.
Hall of Fame investor Peter Lynch sarcastically highlighted the difficulty in timing the market, "I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."
Readers of my blog, Investing Caffeine understand I am a bottom-up investor when it comes to individual security selection with the help of our proprietary S.H.G.R. model, but those individual investment decisions are made within Sidoxia's broader, four-pronged macro framework (see also Don't be a Fool, Follow the Stool). As a reminder, driving our global views are the following four factors: a) Profits; b) Interest rates; c) Sentiment; and Valuations. Currently, two of the four indicators are flashing green (Interest rates and Sentiment), and the other two are neutral (Profits and Valuations).
- Profits (Neutral): Profits are at record highs, but a strong dollar, weak energy sector, and sluggish growth internationally have slowed the trajectory of earnings.
- Valuation (Neutral): At an overall P/E of about 18x's profits for the S&P 500, current valuations are near historical averages. For CAPE investors who have missed the tripling in stock prices, you can reference prior discussions (see CAPE Smells Like BS). I could make the case that stocks are very attractive with a 6% earnings yield (inverse P/E ratio) compared to a 2% 10—Year Treasury bond, but I'll take off my rose-colored glasses.
- Interest Rates (Positive): Rates are at unambiguously low levels, which, all else equal, is a clear-cut positive for all cash generating asset classes, including stocks. With an unmistakably "dovish" Federal Reserve in place, whether the 0.25% interest rate hike comes next month, or next year will have little bearing on the current shape of the yield curve. Chairman Yellen has made it clear the trajectory of rate increases will be very gradual, so it will take a major shift in economic trends to move this factor into Neutral or Negative territory.
- Sentiment (Positive): Following the investment herd can be very dangerous for your financial health. We saw that in spades during the late-1990s in the technology industry and also during the mid-2000s in the housing sector. As Warren Buffett says, it is best to "buy fear and sell greed" – last week we saw a lot of fear.
In addition to the immense outflows out of stock funds (see also Great Rotation) , panic was clearly evident in the market last week as shown by the Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a., the "Fear Gauge." In general, volatility over the last five years has been on a declining trend, however every 6-12 months, some macro concern inevitably rears its ugly head and volatility spikes higher. With the VIX exploding higher by an amazing +118% last week to a level of 28.03, it is proof positive how quickly sentiment can change in the stock market.
Not much in the investing world works exactly like science, but buying stocks during previous fear spikes, when the VIX level exceeds 20, has been a very lucrative strategy. As you can see from the chart below, there have been numerous occasions over the last five years when the over-20 level has been breached, which has coincided with temporary stock declines in the range of -8% to -22%. However, had you held onto stocks, without adding to them, you would have earned an +84% return (excluding dividends) in the S&P 500 index. Absent the 2011 period, when investors were simultaneously digesting a debt downgrade, deep European recession, and domestic political fireworks surrounding a debt ceiling, these periods of elevated volatility have been relatively short-lived.
Whether this will be the absolute best time to buy stocks is tough to say. Stocks are falling like knives, and in many instances prices have been sliced by more than -10%, -20%, or -30%. It's time to compile your shopping list, because valuations in many areas are becoming more compelling and eventually gravity will run its full course. That's when your strategy needs to shift from avoiding the falling knives to finding the bouncing tennis balls…excuse me while I grab my tennis racket.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) including emerging market/Chinese ETFs, but at the time of publishing, SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.


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Hey there,
Sorry this is so late, I was out last night putting up posters for the AHRF fundraiser at Terrapin next Fri Sept 28th 5:30 – 7:30pm FREE show with COSMIC CHARLIE!!!
(If you would like to help I have attached the poster to this email so please print and distribute freely! Thanks).
Check my web site later this week, I will be posting a lot of music to listen to without having to download first. http://livemusicathensga.com/
This is going to be a very abbreviated music recommendations email, I will list most of the DON'T Miss shows, There is, as always, too many great shows on the same night so please any one with a recorder try to help me and record the shows I miss. There is also a ton of new bands playing that I have not had the time to research. My rule of thumb is if a new band has someone in it I know then it is easier from me to recommend as quality musicians play with others of their caliber. If you check out any shows and think them worthy of a mention, please pass that info along to me.
I also want to bring two things to your attention for next week. First, Beats Antique will be playing at GA Theatre Wed 26th I highly recommend this show. Electronica and experimental world fusion music is as good a description as any but don't put them in a box thinking you know what their show will be like. This is a show where the music is just one of the layers of the show, its like an orgasm, you can't describe it, you have to experience it. Check out their info at http://theconfluencegroup.com/ba/ Be sure to download Skeleton Key and the Mixtape for a taste of what to expect musically.
Second, try to make plans for a short road trip and campout for the Sautee Jamboree 2012
Caroline Aiken, Col Bruce Hampton, Sol Driven Train are just a taste of a great lineup. Two days of shows Sept 28th & 29th, check out the info at http://www.snca.org/main.html and
Here are some new downloads I had hoped for time to edit and master but these are just the raw recordings. Anyone out there wanting to learn how to do the mastering I'll be glad to set you up with a system to use or if you already know how I'd appreciate any help doing it. I'm sure you can tell by listening the recordings could be improved.
Free Space @ Hendershot's 9-14-12
breathlanes @ Hendershot's 8-29-12
Flannel Church @ Melting Point 8-4-12
Flannel Church @ Melting Point 8-4-12
Jeff Sipe 6-29-12 @ Melting Point
Kenosha Kid @ Henndershot's 7-11-12
Music Recommendations:
North Mississippi Allstars, Missing Cats Georgia Theatre 8pm
Randall Bramblett Band Hendershot's Coffee Bar 8pm
Kenosha Kid Highwire Lounge 9pm
Thursday, Sept. 20, 2012
Railroad Earth, High Strung String Band Georgia Theatre 8pm
Friday, Sept. 21, 2012
The Woodgrains Terrapin Beer Co. 5:30pm
The Whigs Album Release w/ The District Attorneys and Don Chambers + GOAT Georgia Theatre 8pm
Saturday, Sept. 22, 2012
Red Oak Southern String Band, Green Flag Bishop Park Farmers Market 8am
Killick and John Norris Flicker Theatre & Bar 6pm
An Evening with Matt Joiner and Friends Melting Point 8pm
Galactic feat. Corey Glover, Lingo Georgia Theatre 8pm
Mama's Love New Earth Music Hall 9pm
At this time I am so busy I really don't know what shows I'll be attending but I hope to see y'all at the shows.
Peace and Love,
Peace and Love,

subset: commoncrawl


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WordPress has released first beta for upcoming blogging platform WordPress 3.2. According to WordPress team main focus in the released has been given to performance improvements. Latest WordPress will not support Internet Explorer 6. According to the official blog post is all goes well then WordPress 3.2 final version will be released by the end of June 2011.
WordPress 3.2 is still in development phase so it's is not advisable to install this version on live site. For testing purpose you can setup a test site and walk around the changes and if you find any bug you can report it to WordPress development team. You should check out the Codex article on how to report bugs
Changes in WordPress 3.2 Beta 1
- Performance improvements like you wouldn't believe. What's that mean? Things are faster!
- Distraction-free Writing. The visual editor's full-screen composing experience has gotten a major overhaul, and is now available from HTML mode, too. More than ever, WordPress allows you to focus on what matters most — your content.
- Admin UI Refresh. The last major redesign of the WordPress was in 2008. This isn't a major redesign, just a little facelift to keep us feeling young. WordPress turns 8 later this month, you know.
- New Default Theme. Introducing Twenty Eleven, based on the popular Duster theme. Rotating header images, post format support, and more.
- Browse Happy. WordPress is made to work with modern browsers. If you visit your Dashboard using an outdated web browser, we'll let you know there's a newer version available.
- Admin Bar. We've added more links to the admin bar to make it even more useful.


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If you're thinking about requesting a credit limit increase, you should run – not walk – to the nearest phone and dial up your credit company.
As long as you pay the balance off each month, a bigger credit limit may benefit you. A higher credit limit not only means the potential for greater purchasing power, it also means a better credit score.
Here are 5 reasons why a higher credit limit might be better for your overall financial health.
A Higher Credit Score
With a larger line of credit, you'll instantly have a lower credit utilization rate. A higher limit will instantly create a situation where you suddenly have less debt in relation to how much credit you have available.
Say your current limit is $5,000 and you have $4,000 of it in recurring monthly expenses. In that scenario you're using a whopping 80% of your available credit each month. That's more than most financial institutions approve of which will result in them tagging you as high risk.
If your credit limit is increased to $8,000 your credit utilization rate drops down to 50%. Then if you can knock your debt down to $2,000 you'll only be using 25% of your credit, which is right in the sweet spot, making you look like a better bet to creditors.
More Room For Emergencies
With a higher credit limit you'll have room for unplanned expenses or emergencies. If something unexpected happens, it's nice to have the funds to cover it.
While you should have a an emergency savings account for unplanned expenses, sometimes you don't have enough to cover the expense.
Having a high limit credit card handy will give you access to cash wherever you are and you can cover emergencies if any should come up.
More Rewards
If you have a higher limit, you have more room to make more charges on your card. By paying your regular expenses with your credit card like your credit card bill or your utilities, you'll earn rewards faster.
Just remember to pay off your bill each month entirely. That way you'll get all the perks of a credit card without paying any interest fees.
Better Loan Terms
As mentioned earlier, a lower credit utilization rate will lead to a better credit score. The better your credit score, the better your loan terms will be.
You'll be more likely to be approved for loans and you will certainly get cheaper interest rates too. For something like a mortgage, this can end up saving you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
You can also use your new lower credit score to refinance any existing loans you got while you had bad credit.
Purchase Protection
With a higher credit limit, you'll enjoy the benefits of purchase protection more of the time. Many credit cards offer purchase protections to customers whenever they charge something. These protections include extended warranties, return protection, damage protection and even identity theft protection.
A higher limit on your credit card means more coverages for the things you would normally buy anyway.
While higher credit limits can be a temptation to spend more, the increased flexibility is worth the trade off. If you have a credit card and a good history of paying your bill on time, it might be a good idea to call and request a credit limit increase.


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Police Commissioner Ian Stewart.A Supreme Court judge has found Queensland's top cop acted with bias in downgrading the duties of a regional senior sergeant who stole from charity and was accused of smuggling 20 slabs of beer into a dry Aboriginal community.
Police Commissioner Ian Stewart has been embroiled in a long-running legal stoush with one-time Rockhampton Deputy District Officer, Senior Sergeant Bryan Kennedy, who he sacked on three counts of misconduct on February 16, 2011 when he was deputy commissioner.
That misconduct included allegations Senior Sergeant Kennedy ordered officers to deliver 20 cartons of beer to a dry Aboriginal community while he was officer-in-charge of the remote Doomadgee police station in 2007 and that he stole a fridge donated to a Mount Isa youth organisation in 2008, for use in his own home.
Mr Stewart also found Senior Sergeant Kennedy had engaged in a third instance of misconduct when he allowed a woman to wear his uniform and carry his loaded gun to a Christmas party when he was stationed at Doomadgee.
Senior Sergeant Kennedy appealed Mr Stewart's decision in the Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal, where only the finding of misconduct in relation to the theft of the fridge was upheld.
While lawyers for Mr Stewart argued Senior Sergeant Kennedy should be dismissed from the Queensland Police Service over the theft, the tribunal instead imposed a suspension of six months.
Mr Stewart unsuccessfully appealed the ruling.
Upon Senior Sergeant Kennedy's return to the force, and under the instruction of Mr Stewart, he was relegated to a desk job, as communications room supervisor at the Rockhampton call centre.
Though his salary remained unchanged, the appointment was a deliberate one whereby his work would be highly supervised and he would be more accountable than in his previous role as deputy district officer.
Unhappy with his relegated role, Senior Sergeant Kennedy took it to the Review Commissioner, and finally to the Supreme Court of Queensland, accusing Mr Stewart of bias in appointing him to the supervised desk role.
On Friday, Justice Jean Dalton ruled in Senior Sergeant Kennedy's favour, finding Mr Stewart's repeated publicly aired views that the officer did not have the integrity to remain a member of the police force impacted his decision and constituted bias.
"Commissioner Stewart had made it clear in the press that he had no confidence in the applicant (Kennedy) and that if it were up to him, the applicant would have no place in the police force," Justice Dalton said.
"The subject matter of the Review Commissioner's recommendation in this case was the placement of an officer in a role deemed suitable because it provided supervision, and thus risk mitigation, in circumstances where the officer's responsibility, honesty and willingness to abide by the law had been called into question. All these were matters about which Commissioner Stewart had firm views.
"A fair minded observer might well have apprehended that Commissioner Stewart might not bring an impartial mind to bear in performing the task.
"It seems to me he ought not to have performed the task but delegated it to somebody who could consider the matter with an independent mind."
Justice Dalton said the decision where Senior Sergeant Kennedy was to be stationed should be undertaken again.
In a statement, a spokesperson for Mr Stewart declined to comment on what course of action would now be taken.
"The Queensland Police Service is considering the decision and the comments made by Her Honour Justice Dalton and it would be inappropriate to comment further," the statement read.
Queensland Police Union president Ian Leavers said Mr Stewart had exercised "a clear error in judgement".
The union funded Senior Sergeant Kennedy's legal proceedings.
"A finding of apprehended bias against a senior government official's decision making is of real and serious concern – it should not happen," he said.
Mr Leavers said the decision about where Senior Sergeant Kennedy would be stationed should now go to an independent officer.
"This is yet to be resolved but at a very minimum this matter will be referred back to an officer that we hope does not have a personal, vested and biased interest in the matter as has been found," Mr Leavers said.
Stay in touch with Queensland's best news via Facebook.
This story Administrator ready to work first appeared on 苏州美甲美睫培训学校.


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Reiki Yoga Class With The Golden Light
Reiki Yoga Class With The Golden Light
What is Reiki Yoga?
Reiki Yoga contains the pure original energy and the Yoga positions directly from the Holy Spirit herself.
We use very easy but powerful Reiki Yoga positions.
You will receive very deep cleansing from old blockage from this life, all parallel life's and dimension that your soul has lived and act in.
We do not compare how the position is made with each other during the class. We all focus on our self and be in the present.
Reiki Yoga suits everyone who from the heart wants to achieve healing and inner peace. During and after the class a deep healing occurs. You can be a beginner or a practitioner of the other frequencies of yoga and still join this pure Reiki Yoga class.
All movements are made slowly in your own tempo to soft music. Ann guides you through the entire session with her pleasant soft voice.
A strong pure energy flow during the Reiki Yoga class and it continue also after the class. Good to drink a lot of water after the Reiki Yoga class.
We activate the pure Reiki directly from the Holy Spirit to your body, heart and aura.
During the Reiki Yoga class, you will be very connected to the Holy Spirit and Mother Earth.
The Reiki Yoga class starts with an introduction class and this class everyone needs to take before you can continue to next Reiki Yoga class. During the introduction class Ann will tell us about what happen when we do the different Reiki Yoga positions and what kind of position we need to avoid. She explains some of the foot's and body's minor chakras and how they are linked to the 7 main chakra in your body. She also explains why it is so important for you to open your heart to the Holy Spirit.
During Reiki yoga you heal trauma from parallel life and Trauma from the future.
Ann will first guide you throgh 80 min Reiki Yoga class and 80 min divine knowledge. Ann will talk about different angels, healthy food and healing treatments you can do on yourself and others and she will some weeks guide you through different angel mediation ect.
Reiki Yoga Mats are already in the class room so you only need to bring your own bottle of water and clean socks with you.
Some days we will be outside after the Reiki Yoga class and ground us in Mother Earth and in front of different trees in the garden. Bring a jacket for all kind of weather.
Intro Reiki Yoga class 30-dollar for 2.5 - 3 h hour
Reiki Yoga class 80 min Reiki Yoga 15 dollar
Reiki Yoga class 80 min with divine knowledge. 30 dollar for 2,5-3 h
Only the Reiki Yoga class 15 dollar 80 min
Max 6 person each class.
Sign up by call or send Ann a whats up messenger or an email. Tell what day you would like to join.
Whats up: +505 7778 2227 Moviestar
E-mail: email@example.com
Important to come 10 - 15 min before we start because the door will close to the course room.
www.anglavingar.com Instagram: annanglavingar Facebook: Golden Star Healing Center


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This week's Pals Paper Arts Sketch Challenge (PPA173) provided the design essentials for getting my 4 x 4 "Halloween Hello" card off the ground. Check out what the PPA Resident Artists have come up with using the sketch below and PLAY ALONG!
STAMPIN' PRETTY TIPS (4 x 4 CARD):
- The bats and "bats about you" sentiment from "Halloween Hello" were heat embossed with Black Stampin' Emboss Powder. I'm batty over the shiny finish.
- The little flagged ends and the envelope liner are snappy patterns from Stampin' Up! Witches' Brew Designer Series Paper. So easy to coordinate!
- Speaking of the envelope liner . . . my liner square for the envelope measures 3 1/2″. Don't Miss my 1 Minute to WOW! Tutorial on how to create quick and simple envelope liners (with minimal waste) for envelopes (like this one) whipped up using the Stampin' Up! Envelope Punch Board.
- The little ridges on the bottom of the Basic Black layer were produced using the Stampin' Trimmer Rotary Addition and the Small Scallop Rotary Cutting Blade.
This adorable Halloween Treat broom will sweep you off your feet! It
was demonstrated to my Southwest Stampers group (this is the one I
made) at last month's meeting by my dear friend, Kadie Labadie (more
details on Kadie's Blog).
The handle is black licorice packaged in a Stampin' Up! 1 x 8 Cello Bag
and coffee filters evolved into the bristles. The
"bewitching" tag uses the Stampin' Up! Halloween Hello stamp set that I used on my card.
NEW "BITE ME" HALLOWEEN PHOTOPOLYMER (CLEAR) STAMP SET! Stampin' Up! has just introduced a photopolymer stamp set to give you even more options for Halloween cards and treats. I love that darling kitty! See all Stampin' Up! Photopolymer (Clear) Stamp Sets.
Bite Me Photopolymer Stamp Set $13.95, 134622
Stamp Set: Halloween Hello (Wood-Mount 131718, Clear-Mount 131721)
Paper: Witches' Brew Designer Series Paper (132185), Very Vanilla (101650), Pumpkin Pie (105117), Basic Black (121045), Basic Gray (envelope, 121044)
Ink: VersaMark Pad (102283)
Cool Tools: Hexagon Punch (for flagged end, 130919)), 1″ Square Punch (for flagged end, 124094), Heat Tool (129053), Stampin' Trimmer (126889), Stampin' Trimmer Rotary Addition (129407), Small Scallop Rotary Cutting Blade (129410), Envelope Punch Board (133774)
The Perfect Touch: Neutrals Candy Dots (130934), Basic Gray 1/4″ Stitched Grosgrain Ribbon (126879), Black Stampin' Emboss Powder (109133)


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Please order a commercial macro ONLY if you have at least intermediate professional experience with CorelDraw and macros, no beginners PLEASE. Try FREE macros here and see my help pages to learn. Clients agree to all terms and conditions here when buying a commercial macro and using the available free macros. No refunds, no exchanges.
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< Services
Mental Health First Aid is an 8-hour course that teaches you how to help someone who is developing a mental health problem or experiencing a mental health crisis. The training helps you identify, understand, and respond to signs of mental illnesses and substance use disorders. Learn more.
The Mental Health First Aid Act of 2015 (S. 711/H.R. 1877) authorizes $20 million for Mental Health First Aid. Under this funding, participants would be trained in:
Training programs under this project would be offered to emergency services personnel, police officers, teachers/school administrators, primary care professionals, students, and others with the goal of improving Americans' mental health, reducing stigma around mental illness, and helping people who may be at risk of suicide or self-harm and referring them to appropriate treatment. Studies have shown that Mental Health First Aid successfully increases help provided to others and guidance to professional help, and improves concordance with health professionals about treatment.
< Services


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Cobra Paw
Submitted by:
Best Family Game Award:
Players Choice Award:
Best IG Game of the Year (BIGGY):
Number of players:
Game duration:
Recommended ages:
Country of origin:
United States
Created by:
Published by:
Distributed by:
Other links:
Year submitted:
Ninja-like know how steals the game! Ninja-like reflexes, sharp recognition skills, and mental fortitude steals the game in our new tile-snatching challenge known as Cobra Paw! Players take turns rolling the dice (featuring 6 unique symbols), spotting the tile with the matching pattern, then grabbing it before their opponents. The first player to snatch up 6 tiles wins the game and bestows great honor to the Grand Shidoshi, Master Meow!
This game builds hand-eye coordination. It is out-of-the-box fun with simple rules that allows young children (6+) to understand how to play the game very quickly. It aids younger children to gain patience through turn-taking, and is a fast easy game to learn about winning and losing.
It's important to remember which tiles you have already captured. Often, you'll be looking for the tile to grab in the center pool but it's actually in your own stash. Then another player swipes it from right under your nose! As the tiles in the center dwindle, it's helpful to shift your focus onto another player's tiles in an all out attempt to steal instead of searching the middle playing area first. Another helpful tip is to figure out the quickest way to recognize tiles and come up with a description in your head… some players search for colours so when the dice are rolled, they're searching for "RED/BLUE" or whatever. While other players may recognize shapes better, so they might search for "SLASHES/CIRCLES".
Anthony, one of the designers at Bananagamrs, Inc., tells this story: "I brought the game to my friend's house when we first received production samples. We played several times. We had each won three games so we decided to have a tie-breaker. Towards the end of the game, we had each managed to claim 7 tiles (8 tiles wins in a 2-player game). The next roll would decide the game, and the winner overall. We rolled the dice and when we both went to grab the winning tile, it got knocked off the table, onto the floor. We looked at each other for about a half second, and then both of us dove on the floor as if we were Indiana Jones, trying to capture some mystical artefact worth millions of dollars. Keep in mind, we're both 40 year-old dads, so it's kind of ridiculous that we were diving to win a game of Cobra Paw. I ended up with the tile, but I was also a little closer. I think Master Meow would have been pleased with our competitive intensity."


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by Larry Brody
- Gotta love the look, filled with energy and chaos
- The '70s setting
- The talent attached to the project – Mick Jagger! Martin Scorsese! Ray Romano! Olivia Wilde!
- The dated, bullshit rock 'n' roll cinematography that we've seen in every film – and terrible TV episode from the '70s to today
- The cliche that the '70s have become
- Mick Jagger! Martin Scorsese! Men of talent who stopped making anywhere near full use of that talent long ago
- As we would have said in the '70s, here's the thing. The '70s music scene genuinely was a time of excess and outrageousness. The real deal, spontaneous and filled with a combination of greed, narcissism and idealism that is unimaginable today…even to those who lived it.
This amazing energy became perverted almost immediately by being co-opted for episodes of shows like THE BOLD ONES, BARNABY JONES, CANNON, THE INTERNS, you-name-it, primetime network TV shows that by their very nature were forbidden to show what was really happening and what caused it, instead presenting a cleaned up and way-too-coherent facsimile suitable for flyover country viewing. I know this because I wrote a ton of those episodes for various shows and every single one of them was diluted into silly, bell-bottomed plastic by the time it appeared on NBC, CBS, or ABC.
Today, TV has changed. Not matured, as so many people keep claiming, just changed…so that instead of showing the bright side the audience is treated to the dark side instead. VINYL gives us the dark side of the music business, minus the love and the dedication and the hopefulness that the '70s were, from my perspective, all about. It presents every cliche in the ugliest possible way, spitting in our faces like a sack of Johnny Rottens hocking lugies out at the '80s audiences. (Because spitting was a punk '80s thang, y'all.)
I've tried to watch this show, but I just can't. Its sheer creative laziness fills me with disappointment and genuine outrage. All I can think, when I think about this series is, "Oh, Christ, is this what my children think my youth was all about? And my grandkids, what can they be imagining I was all about back in the day?"
Screw you, Vinyl. You're so bad you make 8-Track cassettes look good.


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Four brothers. James the strong and sure. Rafe the irresponsible rake. Oliver the cold and clinical. Then there was William. William the honorable Knight in Shining Armor.
After years of ignoring the whispered rumors about his disreputable family, William has a plan. His dream of becoming a solider will bring respect to the family name, and help England forget decades of mishaps. Everything in his carefully constructed life is going as planned, until he meets Lillian. From the moment she steps from the carriage he knows she belongs to him. But how can their passionate affair lead to a happily ever when she's already engaged to his cousin?
Please Note: This is a serial; a romance told in three volumes. Volume one is a little over 30,000 words and ends on a cliffhanger. Because of cursing and content, these volumes are recommended for readers eighteen years of age and older.
Other book in the series:


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Marlow Draco 14mm Lowering Rope
Free next day delivery on orders over £90
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Free next day delivery on orders over £90
Free buy online & collect in store
The Marlow Draco has been specially developed for arborist rigging applications. Draco's proven 16 plait cover is marries with a braided high tenacity polyester core to give it a tough and high strength lowering rope. It has a fully braided construction to prevent twisting and allows for a more supple rope without compromising on durability. Draco ensures performance, durability and economy from a single rope.
|Additional Information
|Product Code
Buxton's offer free next working day delivery on orders over £75 ex. VAT (£90 incl. VAT) for the UK Mainland (excluding the Highlands and Islands). We also offer a Royal Mail service for smaller items which will be 1-2 working days. Oversized shipping is for products over 1.2m in length and will have a different shipping charge. White glove is only on highlighted products and is free to people within a 30-mile radius of our showroom.
Orders placed before 3 pm are dispatched the same working day. After this time, orders are sent out the following working day. Orders received during weekends or on Bank Holidays will be processed on the next working day. Please note all orders placed on a Friday will arrive the following Monday. However, you can purchase Saturday delivery for an additional charge.
For more information on our delivery services click here.
At Buxton's, we offer a 30-day return policy. Within 30 days of receiving your goods, you can return the products for a full refund. Products will only be refundable if they are returned in the original packaging, unused and in a resellable condition. T&C applies. Products that are made to order are non-returnable. For example, rope cut to length. Products that we don't stock and are ordered in from the supplier will have a 25% restocking fee if returned.
For more information on our returns policy click here.


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Welcome to Shanghai SME Mining and Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
mail to us : [email protected]
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In the 19th century, costume parties were not just for Halloween. In fact in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the "fancy dress" parties as they[..]
Military uniforms have influenced fashion throughout history and continue to do so today. In the mid-nineteenth century, Americans were taken with the[..]
Pink for a baby girl, blue for a boy, right? Not so, at least not until the twentieth century. In fact age, not gender, dictated the type of clothing[..]


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Upscale Auto Cadillac Recycling
Until recently the whole idea of auto recycling was frowned on in certain circles. We live in a society that believes the newer a product is, the better it has to be. If you have ever needed to replace a part on your car or have been to a dealership for service on your vehicle, … Read more


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Mr. Speaker, I thank the member for the question. As a matter of fact, these are two of the recommendations in the report.
As of now, I do not think any of the provinces have seen the report. It will take them about four weeks to read it because it is very extensive. However, I believe these are the two issues that they are going to have to deal with fairly quickly at a first ministers conference, whether they will hold it, whether it needs additional work, the committee that the report is suggesting.
I am prepared to support anything that enhances the lives of the aboriginal people in this country.


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Inclusion and Diversity at The Hill SchoolAt The Hill School, we not only look to acknowledge and celebrate diversity; we seek to make everyone feel truly included and welcome. Every member of our school — including students, faculty, and staff — should feel respected and loved for their unique identities that make our community strong. We believe that all community members should feel safe and welcome regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, socioeconomic status, religion, or ability.
The Hill School Inclusion StatementThe Hill School believes in fostering an open, diverse and inclusive community. We stand together, committed to making our students, faculty, and staff members feel respected and valued for every aspect of who they are. We recognize and support all of the Hill community and affiliates regardless of race, ethnicity, national origin, gender, religion, age, marital status, sexual orientation, gender identity or disability.
We will provide a safe environment committed to civility and mutual respect in which individuals are accepted, empowered, and supported. We will furthermore seek to develop students who are prepared to interact within a diverse and globally minded society. We believe inclusion encourages an informed, global perspective, an essential trait we seek to cultivate in every student, faculty member, and staff member. We, The Family Boarding School, make it our mission to ensure every member of our family feels welcomed, included, and safe.
Inclusion and Diversity Council
The Inclusion and Diversity Council is a student group designed to oversee programming related to issues around inclusion and diversity on campus. The Council is comprised of students who have expressed interested in inclusion and diversity work, while representing various groups on campus. The Council meets with faculty representatives to discuss how to address issues on campus and help foster an inclusive community. The Council is responsible for promoting and creating both on and off-campus events, programs, and discussions around inclusion and diversity. Students who are interested in joining the Inclusion Council must apply and are selected by the Hill's Co-Directors of Inclusion and Diversity, The Rev. Khristi Adams, Hill's Firestone Endowment Chaplain (email@example.com), and Mr. Jeff Hollway, assistant director of athletics and co-curricular activities (email@example.com).


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Hereditary (2018)
While it's true that almost every movie that has ever been released benefits from going in as blind as possible—let the movie speak for itself; don't let the marketing/audience reaction speak for it and potentially taint your opinion of it before you even get the chance to see it—there are some movies for which this sentiment really holds true. Hereditary, the feature directorial debut for Ari Aster, is one such movie.
As such, I'll only reveal to you the basic setup. Annie (Toni Collette) is an artist who creates miniature versions of rooms and people. She's married to Steve (Gabriel Byrne) and together the couple has two children, Peter (Alex Wolff) and Charlie (Milly Shapiro). Annie's mother, a mysterious woman from whom Annie was on-and-off estranged, recently died after a battle with an illness. Things start getting weird after the family returns home from the funeral. And by weird, I mean scary, shocking, and, on occasion, simply weird.
To say more would be to ruin the fun. Hereditary is a horror movie, but it functions well as a drama with a heavy sense of atmosphere and a mystery about what exactly is going on with this family. The horror scenes come, although the film takes its time to really get going. It slowly builds atmosphere, throwing in a shock or reveal here and there, before unleashing the beast, so to speak. I mean that in a completely metaphorical sense, by the way. I'm not the It Comes at Night marketing machine, which hinted at something more than there actually was.
Hereditary does a great job of marrying its horror with its themes and mood, using one to heighten the impact of the next, and doing so quite often. Each character struggles with multiple things over the course of the film, and then the horror stuff gets thrown on top of that. They're intrinsically linked, which makes them stronger than they'd be separately or even if they were introduced and used one after another instead of together. It does what the best horror films do and aims to do more than simply scare; it wants to unnerve, to get under your skin and into your brain. And this is the way to do just that.
It also contains some excellent technical filmmaking, as well as strong performances. Its sense of mood and atmosphere is tremendous, its use of long takes and lighting is fantastic, and some of the transitions that use the miniatures are stunning. Toni Collette turns in what might be her best performance as the lead—it's a raw, emotionally challenging role, one where a weaker performance really would have hurt the final product.
Hereditary is a great horror movie. It does a wonderful job of marrying its horror elements and its themes in order to strengthen both and create an unsettling film that buries deep into your brain and isn't easy to shake. It's strong on the technical side, it has great acting—especially from Toni Collette—and while it runs for just over two hours, it doesn't feel long. It's sometimes a slow burn, but it's never dull, and that burn allows it to build a fantastic sense of atmosphere.
Conclusion: Hereditary is a fantastic horror film.
Recommendation: If you like being scared, watch Hereditary.
- Rating - 8/108/10


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Shop locally and win this Father's Day – click for details. Double click image to enlarge it.
Forty five shops and services in the heart of Tsawwassen
We had a great time in the Ladner May Days Parade on May 24th! Over 50 volunteers from 6 stores came to help represent the mall, and helped to hand out candy, flyers and stickers to the thousands of parade spectators.
Thank you Chang's Taekwondo, Flowers Beautiful, Lucky Surf & Skate, Sublime Art Supplies, Cara's Beach Body Training & Wagner's European Fabricare.


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In 2015, Orange Lab will order Luxondes start-up a device unique in the world: a slab for viewing in real time the electromagnetic waves that pass through it. It will allow them to really show the general public the focus and its potential to reduce the energy consumption of future 5G networks.
"Rapidly identifying the spatial structure of electromagnetic fields"
At the langevin institute, we work in the fields of ultra-broadband communications in complex and reverberant environments, applications of time reversal. The purchase of the luxondes Radio Waves Display allows us to improve our algorithms and visualize in real time the focus of the waves.


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What is a certification?
A certification, or just "certificate" as they are
sometimes known, is an official test or document that certifies
a person's competency in a given trade or field of study. Some
certifications may involve a simple test at a government office,
such as a food handlers' permit. Others can involve very specific,
very thorough training in a particular process or trade, such
as a journeyman electrician's license.
What kinds of certifications
are there?
There are thousands of certifications available today. In almost
any given career field, there is some form of certificate proving
your competence in your chosen trade. A certification is not
the same thing as degree, as most degrees require study in a
range of subjects. Certifications typically focus on a single
field or even a single process within a field.
How do I obtain a certification?
The process to obtain a certification depends on what the certification
is for. If you are looking for a certification to become an
inspector, for example, you may only need a certain amount of
experience in your field. Most city or county offices can give
you information on inspectors' licenses and the necessary process.
If you are looking for a certification that is more specialized,
such as computer programming, you may need to enroll in a training
program in a technical school and go through months of study.
After the study, some schools offer a comprehensive exam to
actually receive your official certificate.
Some large companies have
their own training programs or schools within the company itself.
Others may be willing to reimburse you for the cost of the certification,
if it is of benefit to them. Some companies encourage their
employees to receive training on a regular basis to keep their
job skills up-to-date.
Are certifications necessary to obtain a job?
Many people can obtain an entry-level position for nearly any
given company without needing a certificate or degree. However,
in today's competitive job market, many companies will insist
on an employee gaining a certain level of training and certification
in order to advance in position in the company. Experience is
always a plus, but without formal training, it can be difficult
to compete in an ever-changing global market.
What is the cost to certify and how long is a certificate good
The cost for a certification varies widely. It depends on the
amount of training necessary and how comprehensive the exam
is. Many government licenses can be less than a hundred dollars.
Very specialized certifications can cost thousands of dollars.
The length of time a certificate is good for also varies. Some
require a single test, others must be renewed frequently.
Is it worth it for me to get a certification?
There are a few questions you must ask yourself when considering
a particular certification. Is it directly involved with your
career field? How serious are you about continuing in your field?
Also, consider the cost.
Will the cost of the licensing and possible renewal fees be
more than the benefit to your career? For example, if you do
freelance computer work on a part-time basis, it may not be
worth it to get a computer certification, as you will not use
it often enough to justify the fees. However, if you are working
for a computer company and looking to advance, or looking to
get a better job with another company, getting that certification
may put you ahead of the pack. It shows you are serious about
your career and keeping your skills sharp and updated.


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Partner Latest News
Held on the 28th April 2016 in Cairo, Egypt, The VIII "Mediterranean Women Entrepreneurs Forum" was co-organised by AFAEMME (Association of Organisations of Mediterranean Businesswomen) and ASCAME (Association of Mediterranean Chambers of Commerce and Industry).
This Forum's edition took place under the theme "Economic Empowerment and Entrepreneurship Promotion for Women and Youth" in the framework of the 11th African Congress for Women Entrepreneurs and the 4th Cairo Women Empowerment Summit.
JP Morgan Named Diversity Corporation of the Year
Uniting the nation's leading business diversity organizations, the inaugural Best-of-the-Best event recognizes outstanding achievement in promoting cross-segment diversity and inclusion. Only companies achieving industry leading results across all diverse segments are eligible to receive the prestigious Best-of-the-Best designation from the National Business Consortium (NBIC), a coalition of national diverse business organizations spearheaded by the National Gay & Lesbian Chamber of Commerce (NGLCC) and including Women's Business Enterprise National Council, U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, U.S. Business Leadership Network, U.S.Pan Asian American Chamber of Commerce, National Black Justice Coalition, and WEConnect International.
More than 1,800 companies participated in DiversityInc's "Top 50 Companies for Diversity" survey in 2016. The survey, now in its 17th year, leads to a detailed, empirically driven ranking. The free report card assesses performance based on four key areas of diversity management including Talent Pipeline, Equitable Talent Development, CEO/Leadership Commitment, and Supplier Diversity. More than 20 of our corporate members made the Top 50 List as well as the Top 12 Global Diversity, Top 13 Supplier Diversity, and the Top 25 Noteworthy Lists. Here's how they ranked:


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Have a look at this example that prints the frequency of a word in a file:
import sys
import re
if not sys.argv[1:]:
raise RuntimeError('Usage: wordfreq FILE')
d = {}
with open(sys.argv[1]) as f:
for s in f:
for word in re.sub('\W', ' ', s).split():
d[word] = d.get(word, 0) + 1
# Use list comprehension
l = [(freq, word) for word, freq in d.items()]
for freq, word in sorted(l):
print('%-6d %s' % (freq, word))
Have a look at this:
import numpy as ...READ MORE
Have a look at this:
import matplotlib
import matplotlib.pyplot ...READ MORE
Actually in later versions of pandas this ...READ MORE
Using the following logic you can arrive ...READ MORE
if you google it you can find. ...READ MORE
Syntax :
list. count(value)
colors = ['red', 'green', ...READ MORE
can you give an example using a ...READ MORE
You can simply the built-in function in ...READ MORE
Have a look at this example:
import sys
import ...READ MORE
The map function executes the function_object for each ...READ MORE
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COMMERCIAL CLEANINGLet the professionals at North American Chem-Dry clean your office carpet and upholstery
Need Business Cleaning?
Everyone knows that the home isn't the only place to clean. At North American Chem-Dry, we know how essential it is to keep your office as clean as possible. Offices, lobbies, and other business spaces need to maintain a professional environment and reputation, and an extremely important piece is overall cleanliness. Because of that, we offer our innovative cleaning services to all commercial business types. Whether you're a small ma-and-pa shop or a huge Fortune 500 company, we have the tools and solutions available to make your carpet look as good as new.
Every business has different setups and different needs. A busy lobby, with high traffic areas, may need frequent furniture and upholstery cleaning. Are you all too familiar with long black marks in those areas? No worries! With our innovative cleaning process, we can remove those in no time. If you have a small office, though, you may only need the occasional carpet cleaning. We'll work with you to come up with a cleaning plan that meets all of your specific needs and fits into your budget.
"These people are just great!! I have used them before but I would just like to say again……the customer service is great, the technicians (I've had a couple of different) are knowledgeable and friendly. I called on Tues, looking for an appt by Friday, they gave me an appt for the next day at a time that was convenient for me and they did an excellent job! I will continue to use this company & I will tell others to use them also."
Why North American Chem-Dry
For more than 40 years, Chem-Dry® has maintained an aggressive research and development program. We know there are many different types of fibers and textiles in the commercial environment, and we know the best way to treat each one. Your upholstery, carpets, and tile are in the best hands possible when you go with North American Chem-Dry as your commercial cleaners.
We also know that you want only the best for your business. That's why we use state-of-the-art equipment designed to produce the best results using the lowest possible amount of moisture. With dry times of one to two hours, your business can continue running with little or no disruption after a cleaning. We provide the cleanest clean, the driest dry, and the healthiest process with the most advanced carpet and upholstery cleaning methods available for your commercial carpets, rugs, fabrics, and leather.
Customized Cleaning
Here at North American Chem-Dry, we provide a cleaning based on what your business needs at the moment. These needs include the following:
- Spot cleaning
- Complete carpet cleaning
- Fabric or leather care
- More!
If your business is in need of any of these, our revolutionary technologies will do the job, removing more soil, spots, and stains than any other commercial cleaning system. We'll work with you to analyze your facility, and then create a customized program that makes your carpeting, rugs, upholstery, and leather look cleaner, last longer and stay healthier. Afterward, our professionals will deliver these services at the convenience of your work schedule. We can plan a cleaning schedule that best meets your needs in order to ensure that your business is always clean. We'll work with you to meet your specific needs!
Ready To Schedule Your Business Cleaning?
Give us a call at 707-938-9614 or
Ready To Schedule Your Business Cleaning?
We provide superior residential and commercial carpet and upholstery cleaning services throughout Sonoma County, CA including: Sonoma, Petaluma, Santa Rosa, Cotati, Rohnert Park, Glen Ellen, Kenwood, Sebastapol, Windsor, Healdsburg, and the surrounding areas.
North American
19558 8th St E
Sonoma CA 95476
Sonoma: (707) 938-9614
Petaluma: (707) 762-9999
Santa Rosa: (707) 578-2001
Hours: Mon-Fri: 8am-5pm
Sat: 10am-2pm


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XChat Auto Replace
Auto Replace
First open the Auto Replace menu.
Settings -> Advanced -> Auto Replace menu.
Click the 'Add New' button.
Now you'll see *NEW* in the 'Text' column and EDIT ME in the 'Replace with' column.
Remove *NEW* from the 'Text' edit box and replace it with an acronym: e.g. lol, lmao, ty, yw, hi, bye etc.
Remove EDIT ME from the 'Replace with' edit box and replace it with the text: e.g. lol=Laughing Out Loud, ty=Thank You.
Use the 'Save' button to save your acronyms/talkers.
%B = Bold, %U = Underlined, %C = Color, %O = end of codes.
Always end your text in the replace menu with %O so you can type "normal" text after you typed your acronym/talker.
Now if you type an acronym (lol,ty,bye) it will replace it with the text you made in your replace menu.
You can find your acronyms/replace text in a file called replace.conf which is in ~/.xchat2.
Make sure you have "Interpret %C, %B as Color, Bold etc" checked in Preferences -> Input Box (older XChat versions). or type:
/set input_perc_color ON
I've made some talkers in a few colors to download and use, copy and paste them into autoreplace.conf in ~/.xchat2.
Check the downloads page. :)
CTRL Codes
If you just want to type some colored or bold text in your channel you can also use the CTRL key codes (like in mIRC, press and hold the CTRL key then type K<colornumber>/B/U/O): CTRL+K (color), CTRL+B (bold), CTRL+U (underlined) and CTRL+O (end of codes).
E.g. to type colored text in yellow bold with a blue background you could type:
CTRL+BK8,2 Hello!
It will look like this in your channel:
Color/Attribute buttons (Win32)
In XChat 2.8.7 and above (Windows only) it is possible to use Color/Attribute buttons in the topic bar and input box.
The buttons will show when you click in the topic bar or click the hidden button "|" on the right side of the input box.
|Auto Replace
|CTCP Replies
|Help Commands
|SET Variables
|Spell Checking
|Text Events
|Tips & Tricks
|User Commands
XChat Official
- Documentation
- Download
- Forum
- News
- Scripts & Plugins


text:
While surfing by using Colbert, Fallon, and Stewart, your belly begins to rumble. There is no pity in giving in to a bite hit late from night; we all undertake it. But in case you do not tread lightly, you can very easily blow up the physique of yours.
That is because the bad post sunset snack options can easily wind up padding the midriff of yours with flab as well as jeopardize the night of yours of restful sleep, that is actually crucial for building muscle such as a pro.
In order to stay away from this pitfall, the following are 5 of the worst type of snacks you are able to reach for when the late night hunger pangs hit, and their sensible options to stay away from a next day food hangover.
1. Late Night No No: Chocolate that is Dark
Over the past few years, chocolate that is dark has turned into a bite hero of sorts. That is because this dark delight is actually laced with body friendly antioxidants proven to help fend off an assortment of maladies.
A term of caution, although: Luxuriating inside a chunk of chocolate that is dark needs to be a day exercise rather than one you need to do within the wee hours. Chocolate is actually an all natural source of stimulants like caffeine and theobromine which may keep you turning and tossing for several hours by charging up the nervous system of yours. An excellent night's rest is crucial for creating a glance worthy physique.
This's the time period when a considerable level of muscle recovery happens, when the body produces anabolic hormones as testosterone as well as growth hormone. Snacking on meals which disrupt your shut eye might very well sabotage the fitness gains of yours.
Try This Instead: A Handful Of Carbo Chips
Akin to cocoa, carob originates from the pod associated with a tropical tree which has an edible pulp. It has a cute, chocolaty flavor akin to chocolate that is dark, but carob is actually caffeine free, therefore it will not result in an evening of counting sheep. Like chocolate that is dark, carob harbors antioxidant firepower.
2. Late Night No No: Boxed Cereal
Exactly who has not dug right into a bowl of reassuring breakfast cereal once the late night munchies strike? Make this a treat habit, although, and the midsection of yours will certainly remain a couple of cans shy of a six pack.
The issue with nearly all boxed cereals - and never simply the people adorned with cartoon figures - is actually they are chock full of sugar, which may spike the blood sugar of yours.
Late inside the day, whenever your metabolism begins to be more sloth like compared to Usain Bolt like, this unexpected rise in blood sugar is able to bring about body fat storage and wreck your buff-to-blubber ratio.
Try This Instead: Plain Popcorn
While the golden popcorn on the multiplex is actually a calorie bomb, homemade popcorn is significantly less of a snacking catastrophe. The slow digesting carbohydrates in popcorn labor to transport the aminoalkanoic acid tryptophan to the brain of yours, exactly where it is utilized to fire up the generation of the sleep inducing neurotransmitter serotonin.
Many nutritionists agree it is not a good idea to consume a calorie rich snack shortly prior to hitting the hay, therefore the mere ninety three calories in 3 cups of simple popcorn helps it be a winner. Select hand bags of unfastened kernels as well as pop them on the stovetop.
Do not depend on hand bags of microwave popcorn, that are typically doused in sketchy chemicals and unhealthy fats. You are able to additionally locate hand bags of plain prepopped popcorn.
3. Late Night No No Ice Cream
null For probably the most part, ice cream has a snacking double whammy. For example, tubs of Chunky Monkey along with other ice cream variations are usually loaded with sugar which may add to body fat gain.
The excessive quantity of extra fat in the icy treat also can force your digestive phone system to kick straight into overdrive, which may result in disturbances in rest and, consequently, less of a possibility that the body of yours will recover adequately from the gym beat down you place it through earlier.
Moreover , be scared of brands produced with chocolate or maybe caffeine which could rev you up if you need to be mellowing out.
Try This Instead: Low Fat Cottage Cheese Mixed With Chia Seeds
Cottage cheese packs inside an insightful casein protein, and that is slow digesting. What this means is which snacking on the "great white" is able to help supply the body of yours with a constant level of muscle building amino acids throughout the evening.
The excessive level of soluble fiber that are in chia styles a gel in the gut of yours and further spreads through the release of anabolic amino acids within the cottage cheese.
Fiber additionally promotes satiety, which may keep the hands of yours from the cookie jar when burning up the midnight oil.
4. Late Night No-No: Pretzel Sticks
After a very long day, it is hard not to become tempted by the appeal of ripping right into a bag of crunchy pretzels when driving the TV stations. And are not they way better compared to greasy chips? Well, it converts away this baked snack food is not so benign all things considered.
The issue with pretzel snacks is they are made with cream refined flour, giving them a sky high glycemic index. Although the spike in blood sugar may also disrupt good sleep patterns, this could not simply encourage body fat storage late in the day when your metabolism is slowing.
It is also really simple to lose monitor of just how much you are eating; before it is known by you, you have polished off an entire bag and then place yourself into calorie clog.
Try This Instead: Seaweed Snacks
Yes, really, seaweed! Not only for sushi, seaweed snack foods like Annie Chun's are actually made out of roasted seaweed so they are brimming with a leafy umami taste that is strangely addictive.
And with just aproximatelly thirty calories in ten sheets, there is simply no guilt in killing off a package deal at a time. Not to mention you will gain from the naturally occurring minerals and vitamins that are in the presents from the ocean.