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BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.
METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).
FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m(2) per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m(2) per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m(2) per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m(2) per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m(2) per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.
INTERPRETATION: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.
Background: Clinical pharmacist interventions have been shown to have positive effect on occurrence of drug-related issues as well as on clinical outcomes. However, evidence about which patients benefiting most from the interventions is limited. We aimed to explore whether pharmacist intervention is equally effective in preventing emergency department (ED) visits in patients with few or many prescribed drugs and in those with different levels of inappropriate prescribing. Methods: Patient and outcome data from a randomized controlled trial exploring the clinical effects of a ward-based pharmacist intervention in patients, 80 years and older, were used. The patients were divided into subgroups according to the number of prescribed drugs (< 5 or >= 5 drugs) and the level of inappropriate prescribing [using the Screening Tool Of Older People's potentially inappropriate Prescriptions (STOPP) and the Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) with a score of >= 2 (STOPP) and >= 1 (START) as cutoff points]. The effect of the intervention on the number of times the different subgroups visited the ED was analyzed. Results: The pharmacist intervention was more effective with respect to the number of subsequent ED visits in patients taking < 5 drugs on admission than in those taking >= 5 drugs. The rate ratio (RR) for a subsequent ED visit was 0.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.09-0.52] for,5 drugs and 0.70 (95% CI 0.47-1.04) for >= 5 drugs (p = 0.02 for the interaction). The effect of intervention did not differ between patients with high or low STOPP or START scores. Conclusion: In this exploratory study, the pharmacist intervention appeared to be more effective in preventing visits to the ED for patients who were taking fewer drugs before the intervention. Our analysis of STOPP and START scores indicated that the level of inappropriate prescribing on admission had no effect on the outcomes of intervention with respect to ED visits.
Objectives: To construct and internally validate a risk score, the '80+ score', for revisits to hospital and mortality for older patients, incorporating aspects of pharmacotherapy. Our secondary aim was to compare the discriminatory ability of the score with that of three validated tools for measuring inappropriate prescribing: Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP), Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) and Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). Setting: Two acute internal medicine wards at Uppsala University hospital. Patient data were used from a randomised controlled trial investigating the effects of a comprehensive clinical pharmacist intervention. Participants: Data from 368 patients, aged 80 years and older, admitted to one of the study wards. Primary outcome measure: Time to rehospitalisation or death during the year after discharge from hospital. Candidate variables were selected among a large number of clinical and drug-specific variables. After a selection process, a score for risk estimation was constructed. The 80+ score was internally validated, and the discriminatory ability of the score and of STOPP, START and MAI was assessed using C-statistics. Results: Seven variables were selected. Impaired renal function, pulmonary disease, malignant disease, living in a nursing home, being prescribed an opioid or being prescribed a drug for peptic ulcer or gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with an increased risk, while being prescribed an antidepressant drug (tricyclic antidepressants not included) was linked to a lower risk of the outcome. These variables made up the components of the 80+ score. The C-statistics were 0.71 (80+), 0.57 (STOPP), 0.54 (START) and 0.63 (MAI). Conclusions: We developed and internally validated a score for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in hospitalised older people. The score discriminated risk better than available tools for inappropriate prescribing. Pending external validation, this score can aid in clinical identification of high-risk patients and targeting of interventions.
Background-Patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute a high-risk group with increased mortality. beta-Blocker therapy has been shown to reduce mortality, prevent arrhythmias, and delay heart failure development after an MI in broad populations. However, the effect of beta-blockers in COPD patients is less well established and they may also be less treated due to fear of adverse reactions. We investigated beta-blocker prescription at discharge in patients with COPD after MI. ethods and Results-Patients hospitalized for MI between 2005 and 2010 were identified from the nationwide Swedish SWEDEHEART registry. Patients with COPD who were alive and discharged after an MI were selected as the study population. In this cohort, patients who were discharged with beta-blockers were compared to patients not discharged with beta-blockers. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. A total of 4858 patients were included, of which 4086 (84.1%) were discharged with a beta-blocker while 772 (15.9%) were not. After adjusting for potential confounders including baseline characteristics, comorbidities, and in-hospital characteristics, patients discharged with a beta-blocker had lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.98) during the total follow-up time (maximum 7.2 years). In the subgroup of patients with a history of heart failure, the corresponding hazard ratio was 0.77 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.95). Conclusions-Patients with COPD discharged with beta-blockers after an MI had a lower all-cause mortality compared to patients not prescribed beta-blockers. The results indicate that MI patients with COPD may benefit from beta-blockers.
To gain a better understanding of the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on long-term mortality in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and identify areas where the clinical care for these patients may be improved.
Patients hospitalised for MI between 2005 and 2010 were identified from the nationwide Swedish SWEDEHEART registry. Patients with MI and a prior COPD hospital discharge diagnosis were compared to patients with MI without a prior COPD hospital discharge diagnosis for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality at 1 year after MI. Secondary endpoints included rates of reinfarction, new-onset stroke, new-onset bleeding and new-onset heart failure at 1 year.
A total of 81 191 MI patients were included, of which 4867 (6%) had a COPD hospital discharge diagnosis at baseline. Patients with COPD showed a significantly higher unadjusted 1-year mortality (24.6 vs 13.8%) as well as a higher rate of reinfarction, new-onset bleeding and new-onset heart failure post-MI. After adjustment for potential confounders, including comorbidities and treatment, the patients with COPD still showed a significantly higher 1-year mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.21) as well as a higher rate of new-onset heart failure (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.47), whereas no significant association between COPD and myocardial reinfarction or new-onset bleeding remained.
In this nationwide contemporary study, patients with COPD frequently had an atypical presentation, less often underwent revascularisation and less often received guideline-recommended secondary preventive medications of established benefit. Prior COPD was associated with a higher 1-year mortality and a higher risk of subsequent new-onset heart failure after MI. The association seems to be mainly explained by differences in background characteristics, comorbidities and treatment, although a minor part might be explained by COPD in itself. Improved in-hospital MI treatment and post-MI secondary prevention according to the guidelines may lower the mortality in this high-risk population.
Background—The nature of the association between levels of physical activity and risk of heart failure is little known. We investigated nonlinear associations of total and leisure time physical activity with risk of heart failure.
Methods and Results—In 1997, 39 805 persons without heart failure completed a questionnaire of lifestyle factors and medical history. We used Cox regression models to investigate total (adjusting for education and previous myocardial infarction) and direct (multivariable-adjusted) effects of self-reported total and leisure time physical activity on risk of heart failure of any cause and heart failure of nonischemic origin. Heart failure diagnoses were obtained until December 31, 2010. Higher leisure time physical activity was associated with lower risk of heart failure of any cause; hazard ratio of the total effect of leisure time physical activity was for fifth versus first quintile 0.54; 95% confidence interval was 0.44 to 0.66. The direct effect was similar. High total daily physical activity level was associated with lower risk of heart failure, although the effect was less pronounced than for leisure time physical activity (total effect hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.69–0.95; fifth versus first quintile). A similar direct effect observed.
Conclusions—Leisure time physical activity was inversely related to risk of developing heart failure in a dose–response fashion. This was reflected in a similar but less pronounced association of total physical activity with risk of heart failure. Only part of the effects appeared to be mediated by traditional risk factors.
We aimed to investigate the association of number of completed races and finishing time with risk of arrhythmias among participants of Vasaloppet, a 90 km cross-country skiing event.
All the participants without cardiovascular disease who completed Vasaloppet during 1989-98 were followed through national registries until December 2005. Primary outcome was hospitalization for any arrhythmia and secondary outcomes were atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular tachycardias (SVT), and ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation/cardiac arrest (VT/VF/CA). Among 52 755 participants, 919 experienced arrhythmia during follow-up. Adjusting for age, education, and occupational status, those who completed the highest number of races during the period had higher risk of any arrhythmias [hazard ratio (HR)1.30; 95% CI 1.08-1.58; for ≥5 vs. 1 completed race], AF (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.04-1.61), and bradyarrhythmias (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.28-3.47). Those who had the fastest relative finishing time also had higher risk of any arrhythmias (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04-1.62; for 100-160% vs. >240% of winning time), AF (1.20; 95% CI 0.93-1.55), and bradyarrhythmias (HR 1.85; 95% CI 0.97-3.54). SVT or VT/VF/CA was not associated with finishing time or number of completed races.
Among male participants of a 90 km cross-country skiing event, a faster finishing time and a high number of completed races were associated with higher risk of arrhythmias. This was mainly driven by a higher incidence of AF and bradyarrhythmias. No association with SVT or VT/VF/CA was found.
While physical activity and exercise protects against cardiovascular disease, athletes have higher risk of atrial fibrillation and other arrhythmias. Graded independent and joint influences of exercise capacity and muscle strength on these diseases are unknown.
All 1.26 million Swedish men who participated in mandatory military conscription between 1972 and 1995 (at a median age of 18.2 years) contributed. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the associations of maximal exercise capacity and muscle strength at conscription to subsequent risk of vascular disease and arrhythmias, as identified in national registries.
During a median follow-up of 26.3 years, about 26,000 hospitalizations for vascular disease events and 17,000 for arrhythmias occurred. Exercise capacity was inversely associated with risk of vascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.67]; for 5th vs. 1st quintile) and so was muscle strength (HR 0.79; 0.76-0.83; for 5th vs. 1st quintile ). Similar associations were seen across a range of major vascular disease events. Exercise capacity was associated with incidence of arrhythmias in a U-shaped fashion (HR 0.91; 0.86-0.96; for 3rd vs. 1st quintile, and 0.99; 0.94-1.04; for 5th vs. 1st quintile). Higher muscle strength was associated with lower risk of arrhythmias (HR 0.87; 0.83-0.91; for 5th vs. 1st quintile).
Exercise capacity and muscle strength in late adolescence are independently and jointly associated with long-term risk of vascular disease and arrhythmias. The lower risk of vascular events with higher exercise capacity was not outweighed by higher risk of arrhythmias.
Background: Hypertension is the leading risk factor for death worldwide and high levels of physical activity is associated with lower incidence of hypertension. The associations of excessive levels of exercise and incidence of hypertension is less known. We aim to compare the incidence of hypertension among 206,889 participants in a long-distance cross-country skiing event and 505,542 persons randomly sampled from the general population (matched to the skiers on age sex and place of residence). Methods: Skiers best performance (in per cent of winning time) and number of completed races during the study period were associated to incidence of hypertension after participation in Vasaloppet. Hypertension was defined as prescription of blood pressure-lowering drugs as obtained from the national drug registry. Models were adjusted for sex, age, education and income (total effect). Results: During a median time-of-risk of 8.3 years skiers had lower incidence of hypertension compared to non-skiers (HR 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.60). Among the skiers, better performance (in % of winning time) in Vasaloppet was strongly associated with lower incidence of hypertension (Fastest fifth: HR 0.41; 95% CI 0.39-0.42. Slowest fifth: 0.78 CI 0.75-0.81). The association was near linear and did not differ between sexes. Among the skiers, a weaker association of number of completed races during the study period with incidence of hypertension (1 race: HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.62-0.65.>5 races: HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.50-0.53). A sub-analysis of 10,804 participants including adjustment for lifestyle factors showed similar results. Conclusions: Participation in a long-distance skiing event was associated with 41% lower incidence of hypertension over the next 8 years, compared to non-participation; and the better the performance, the lower the incidence of hypertension. This adds to the list of beneficial effects of intensive training, as hypertension is the leading risk factor of premature death globally.
While it is well known that physical inactivity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, there is still a search for the mechanisms by which exercise exerts its positive effect. Skeletal muscle fibre type can be affected to some extent by exercise, and different fibre types possess different anti-inflammatory and glucometabolic properties that may influence cardiovascular disease risk.
Population-based cohort study.
We investigated relations of skeletal muscle morphology to risk of cardiovascular events in a sample of 466 71-year-old men without cardiovascular disease, of which 295 were physically active (strenuous physical activity at least 3 h/week).
During a median of 13.1 years of follow up, 173 major cardiovascular events occurred. Among physically active men, 10% higher proportion of type-I (slow-twitch oxidative) fibres was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.95) for cardiovascular events, and 10% higher proportion of type-IIx (fast-twitch glycolytic) fibres was associated with a HR of 1.24 (1.06-1.45), adjusting for age. Similar results were observed in several sets of multivariable-adjusted models. No association of muscle fibre type with risk of cardiovascular events was observed among physically inactive men.
Higher skeletal muscle proportion of type-I fibres was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular events and a higher proportion of type-IIx fibres was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular events. These relations were only observed in physically active men. Skeletal muscle fibre composition may be a mediator of the protective effects of exercise against cardiovascular disease.
Background: Whilst tall stature has been related to lower risk of vascular disease, it has been proposed as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation. Little is known about other anthropometric measures and their joint effects on risk of atrial fibrillation.
Objectives: We aim to investigate associations and potential joint effects of height, weight, body surface area (BSA) and body mass index (BMI) with risk of atrial fibrillation.
Methods: In a cohort covering 1 153 151 18-year-old men participating in the Swedish military conscription (1972-1995), Cox regression was used to investigate associations of height, weight, BSA and BMI with risk of atrial fibrillation.
Results: During a median of 26.3 years of follow-up, higher height was associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR] 2.80; 95% CI 2.63-2.98; for 5th vs. 1st quintile) and so was larger BSA (HR 3.05; 95% CI 2.82-3.28; for 5th vs. 1st quintile). Higher weight and BMI were to a lesser extent associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (BMI: 1.42; 95% CI 1.33-1.52, for 5th vs. 1st quintile). We found a multiplicative joint effect of height and weight. Adjusting for muscle strength, exercise capacity and diseases related to atrial fibrillation attenuated these measures.
Conclusions: Higher height and weight are strongly associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation. These associations are multiplicative and independent of each other and are summarized in a strong association of body surface area with risk of atrial fibrillation. The mechanisms remain unknown but may involve increased atrial volume load with larger body size.
OBJECTIVE To investigate the associations of exercise capacity and muscle strength in late adolescence with risk of vascular disease and arrhythmia. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING General population in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS 1.1 million men who participated in mandatory military conscription between 1 August 1972 and 31 December 1995, at a median age of 18.2 years. Participants were followed until 31 December 2010. MAIN OUTCOMES Associations between exercise capacity and muscle strength with risk of vascular disease and subgroups (ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and cardiovascular death) and risk of arrhythmia and subgroups (atrial fibrillation or flutter, bradyarrhythmia, supraventricular tachycardia, and ventricular arrhythmia or sudden cardiac death). Maximum exercise capacity was estimated by the ergometer bicycle test, and muscle strength was measured as handgrip strength by a hand dynamometer. High exercise capacity or muscle strength was deemed as above the median level. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 26.3 years, 26 088 vascular disease events and 17 312 arrhythmia events were recorded. Exercise capacity was inversely associated with risk of vascular disease and its subgroups. Muscle strength was also inversely associated with vascular disease risk, driven by associations of higher muscle strength with lower risk of heart failure and cardiovascular death. Exercise capacity had a U shaped association with risk of arrhythmia, driven by a direct association with risk of atrial fibrillation and a U shaped association with bradyarrhythmia. Higher muscle strength was associated with lower risk of arrhythmia (specifically, lower risk of bradyarrhythmia and ventricular arrhythmia). The combination of high exercise capacity and high muscle strength was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.70) for vascular events and 0.92 (0.88 to 0.97) for arrhythmia compared with the combination of low exercise capacity and low muscle strength. CONCLUSIONS Exercise capacity and muscle strength in late adolescence are independently and jointly associated with long term risk of vascular disease and arrhythmia. The health benefit of lower risk of vascular events with higher exercise capacity was not outweighed by higher risk of arrhythmia.
BACKGROUND: Increased carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), measured by ultrasound, is related to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Since presence of echolucent plaques increases the risk further, we investigated if echogenecity of the carotid intima-media complex is related to markers of cardiovascular risk. Our aim was therefore to investigate if intima-media echogenecity is related to cardiovascular risk factors, or to markers of inflammation and oxidation in an exploratory investigation. METHODS: The PIVUS cohort study is an observational study of 1016 (509 women and 507 men) randomly chosen individuals aged 70 living in Uppsala, Sweden. Carotid artery ultrasound measurements were performed. IMT and the grey scale median (GSM) value were calculated in the intima-media complex (IM-GSM) in the far wall of the common carotid artery. Traditional risk factors were evaluated together with indices of oxidative stress and inflammation. RESULTS: In the multiple regression analysis, HDL-cholesterol, body mass index, conjugated diens, glutathione, e-selectin and TNF alfa were significantly related to IM-GSM. IMT was independently related to blood pressure, smoking and body mass index. CONCLUSION: The echolucency of the carotid intima-media was related to several cardiovascular risk factors not related to IMT, such as dyslipidemia, oxidative stress and inflammation. Since the echogenecity of the carotid intima-media complex was related to different risk factors compared to carotid IMT, it is worthwhile to further explore the usefulness of this new marker of the vascular wall.
Carotid plaques can be characterised by ultrasound by size and echogenicity. Both size and echogenicity are predictors of cardiovascular events. The aim of this study was to examine whether traditional risk factors and markers of inflammation and oxidation were associated with plaque size and echogenicity. Computerised analysis of carotid plaque size and echogenicity (grey scale median, GSM) were performed by ultrasound in a population-based health survey in 1,016 subjects aged 70 years (PIVUS study). Information on cardiovascular risk factors was collected, together with markers of inflammation and oxidation. Increased Framingham risk score, systolic blood pressure, higher BMI and decreased HDL, lower glutathione levels were related to echolucent plaques. Previous or present smoking was common with significantly more pack-years related to the echorich plaques. Plaque size was associated with increased Framingham risk score, systolic blood pressure, blood glucose levels, smoking, ApoB/A1 ratio, OxLDL, TNF alpha, HOMA insulin resistance, leucocyte count, decreased BCD-LDL and low levels of l-selectin. Low HDL, increased BMI and decreased glutathione levels were associated with the echolucency of carotid plaques, implying metabolic factors to play a role for plaque composition. Markers of inflammation were related to plaque size alone, implying inflammation to be predominantly associated with the amount of atherosclerosis. These results suggest that plaque size and echogenicity are influenced by different risk factors.
Snus, a Swedish type of smokeless tobacco, has potent acute hemodynamic effects, which could provoke stress on the cardiovascular system, including the myocardium. Snus has, however, not been linked to risk of ischemic heart disease. Therefore, we hypothesized that snus use increases the risk for heart failure of non-ischemic origin.
We conducted a pooled analysis of eight Swedish prospective cohort studies involving individual participant data from 350,711 men. Shared frailty models with random effects at the cohort level, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of heart failure in relation to snus use. We investigated dose-response associations, and association with ischemic and non-ischemic heart failure in separate. For positive control purposes, we also investigated associations between smoking and risk of heart failure.
During a median follow-up time of 16 years, 5,404 men were hospitalized for heart failure. In models adjusting for age, smoking, previous myocardial infarction and educational level, current snus use was associated with a higher risk of heart failure (HR 1.27, 95 % CI 1.07-1.50), relative to non-current snus use. A dose-response pattern was observed, with higher risk with more snus cans used per week. We observed an association of snus use with non-ischemic heart failure, HR 1.34 (95 % CI 1.11-1.63), but not with ischemic heart failure, HR 1.01 (95 % CI 0.72-1.42). Smoking was more strongly associated with heart failure, particularly of ischemic origin, than snus use.
Snus use was associated with a modestly increased risk for heart failure of non-ischemic origin in a dose-response manner. This finding has public health implications for the risk assessment of snus use, and potentially other modes of smokeless use of nicotine.
Background-Given the indications of increased risk for fatal myocardial infarction (MI) in people who use snus, a moist smokeless tobacco product, we hypothesized that discontinuation of snus use after an MI would reduce mortality risk. Methods and Results-All patients who were admitted to coronary care units for an MI in Sweden between 2005 and 2009 and were <75 years of age underwent a structured examination 2 months after discharge (the baseline of the present study). We investigated the risk of mortality in post-MI snus quitters (n=675) relative to post-MI continuing snus users (n=1799) using Cox proportional hazards analyses. During follow-up (mean 2.1 years), 83 participants died. The mortality rate was 9.7 (95% confidence interval, 5.7-16.3) per 1000 person-years at risk in post-MI snus quitters and 18.7 (14.8-23.6) per 1000 person-years at risk in post-MI continuing snus users. After adjustment for age and sex, post-MI snus quitters had half the mortality risk of post-MI continuing snus users (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.91). In a multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratio was 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-1.02). The corresponding estimate for people who quit smoking after MI versus post-MI continuing smokers was 0.54 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-0.69). Conclusions-In this study, discontinuation of snus use after an MI was associated with a nearly halved mortality risk, similar to the benefit associated with smoking cessation. These observations suggest that the use of snus after MI should be discouraged.
Oral moist snuff (snus) is discussed as a safer alternative to smoking, and its use is increasing. Based on its documented effect on blood pressure, we hypothesized that use of snus increases the risk of heart failure.
Two independent Swedish prospective cohorts; the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM), a community-based sample of 1076 elderly men, and the Construction Workers Cohort (CWC), a sample of 118,425 never-smoking male construction workers.
Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate possible associations of snus use with risk of a first hospitalization for heart failure.
In ULSAM, 95 men were hospitalized for heart failure, during a median follow up of 8.9 years. In a model adjusted for established risk factors including past and present smoking exposure, current snus use was associated with a higher risk of heart failure [hazard ratio (HR) 2.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-4.22] relative to non-use. Snus use was particularly associated with risk of non-ischaemic heart failure (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.12-5.82). In CWC, 545 men were hospitalized for heart failure, during a median follow up of 18 years. In multivariable-adjusted models, current snus use was moderately associated with a higher risk of heart failure (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.00-1.64) and non-ischaemic heart failure (HR 1.28, 95% CI 0.97-1.68) relative to never tobacco use.
Data from two independent cohorts suggest that use of snus may be associated with a higher risk of heart failure.
Based on effects of nicotine and snus (a smokeless tobacco) on hemodynamics, pro-arrhythmia and remodelling, in combination with indications of increased risk for fatal myocardial infarction (MI) in snus users; we hypothesised that the outcome of an MI may be worse in snus users.
Data was extracted from the SWEDEHEART registry for all patients who underwent coronary angiography in Sweden due to MI between December 2009 and December 2014. In snus users (n=4,950) relative to snus non-users (n=55,412), we compared risks of a large MI (defined as hs-cTnT of > 10,000 ng/L, cTnT > 10 μg/L or cTnI > 10 μg/L) and death in the acute (in-hospital) setting, and death+HF (a combined endpoint of all-cause death or hospitalization for heart failure) and all-cause death at short- (<28 days) and long-term follow-up. Relations of snus use to outcomes were also analysed in pre-specified subgroups of never, previous and current smokers.
A large MI was diagnosed in 10,975 patients. During long-term follow-up (median 1.9 years), 7,758 either died (n=6,044) or were hospitalized due to heart failure (n=1,714). In models adjusting for age, gender, smoking, previous MI and occupational classification (employed, unemployed/sick leave and retired), snus use was not associated with risk of large MI (odds ratio 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.09) or death+HF (long-term Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) 0.99; 95% CI 0.90-1.10). Nonetheless, among never-smokers snus use was associated with an increased risk for death+HF (long-term HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.55), driven by a higher mortality risk (long-term HR for death of any cause 1.29, 95% CI 1.02-1.64).
In this study, snus use was unrelated to acute, short-term or long-term adverse outcomes after an MI. Among never-smokers, snus use was associated with an increased risk of post-MI death.
Background and objectives Circulating fibroblast growth factor-23 is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in CKD and non-CKD individuals, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This study tested whether this association is independent of mineral metabolism and indices of subclinical cardiovascular pathology. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The prospective association between fibroblast growth factor-23 and major cardiovascular events (a composite of hospital-treated myocardial infarction, hospital-treated stroke, or all-cause mortality) was investigated in the community-based Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (n=973; mean age=70 years, 50% women) using multivariate logistic regression. Subjects were recruited between January of 2001 and June of 2004. Results During follow-up (median=5.1 years), 112 participants suffered a major cardiovascular event. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and estimated GFR, higher fibroblast growth factor-23 was associated with increased risk for major cardiovascular events (odds ratio for tertiles 2 and 3 versus tertile 1=1.92, 95% confidence interval=1.19-3.09, P<0.01). After additional adjustments in the model, adding established cardiovascular risk factors, confounders of mineral metabolism (calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone, and 25 (OH)-vitamin D), and indices of subclinical pathology (flow-mediated vasodilation, endothelial-dependent and -independent vasodilation, arterial stiffness, and atherosclerosis and left ventricular mass) attenuated this relationship, but it remained significant (odds ratio for tertiles 2 and 3 versus tertile 1=1.69, 95% confidence interval=1.01-2.82, P<0.05). Conclusions Fibroblast growth factor-23 is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events in the community, even after accounting for mineral metabolism abnormalities and subclinical cardiovascular damage. Circulating fibroblast growth factor-23 may reflect novel and important aspects of cardiovascular risk yet to be unraveled.
OBJECTIVE- The existence of an obese subgroup with a healthy metabolic profile and low diabetes risk has been proposed; yet long-term data are lacking. We aimed to investigate associations between combinations of BMI categories and metabolic syndrome and risk of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- At age 50, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 1,675 participants without diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) study. According to BMI/metabolic syndrome status, they were categorized as normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m(2)) without metabolic syndrome (National Cholesterol Education Program criteria, n = 853), normal weight with metabolic syndrome (n = 60), overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m(2)) without metabolic syndrome (n = 557), overweight with metabolic syndrome (n = 117), obese (BMI >30 kg/m(2)) without metabolic syndrome (n = 28), and obese with metabolic syndrome (n = 60). We investigated the associations between BMI/metabolic syndrome categories at baseline and diabetes incidence.
RESULTS- After 20 years, 160 participants had developed diabetes. In logistic regression models adjusting for age, smoking, and physical activity, increased risks for diabetes were observed in the normal weight with metabolic syndrome (odds ratio 3.28 [95% CI] 1.38-7.81; P = 0.007), overweight without metabolic syndrome (3.49[2.26-5.42]; P < 0.001), overweight with metabolic syndrome (7.77 [4.44-13.62]; P < 0.001), obese without metabolic syndrome (11.72 [4.88-28.16]; P < 0.001), and obese with metabolic syndrome (10.06 [5.19-19.51]; P < 0.001) categories compared with the normal weight without metabolic syndrome category.
CONCLUSIONS- Overweight or obese men without metabolic syndrome were at increased risk for diabetes. Our data provide further evidence that overweight and obesity in the absence of the metabolic syndrome should not be considered a harmless condition.
BACKGROUND: In contrast to the associated-with-thromboembolic-event type 1 myocardial infarction, type 2 myocardial infarction is caused by acute imbalance between oxygen supply and demand of myocardium. Type 2 myocardial infarction may be present in patients with or without obstructive coronary artery disease, but knowledge about patient characteristics, treatments, and outcome in relation to coronary artery status is lacking. We aimed to compare background characteristics, triggering mechanisms, treatment, and long-term prognosis in a large real-life cohort of patients with type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction with and without obstructive coronary artery disease.
METHODS: All 41,817 consecutive patients with type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction registered in the Swedish myocardial infarction registry (SWEDEHEART) who underwent coronary angiography between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2013, with the last follow-up on December 31, 2014, were studied.
RESULTS: In 92.8% of 40,501 patients classified as type 1 and in 52.5% of patients classified as type 2 myocardial infarction, presence of an obstructive coronary artery disease could be shown. Within the patients with obstructive coronary artery disease, those with type 2 myocardial infarction were older, and had more comorbidities and smaller necrosis as compared with type 1 myocardial infarction. In contrast, there was almost no difference in risk profile and extent of myocardial infarction between type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction patients with nonobstructive coronary artery stenosis. The crude long-term mortality was higher in type 2 as compared with type 1 myocardial infarction with obstructive coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-2.03), but was lower after adjustment (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.94). In myocardial infarction patients with nonobstructive coronary artery stenosis, the mortality risk was similar regardless of the clinical myocardial infarction type (crude HR 1.14; 95% CI, 0.84-1.55; adjusted HR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52-1.29).
CONCLUSIONS: The substantial differences in risk factors, treatment, and outcome in patients with type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction with obstructive coronary artery disease supports the relevance of the division between type 1 and type 2 in this population. On the contrary, in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery stenosis, irrespective of the clinical type, a similar risk profile, extent of necrosis, and longterm prognosis were observed, indicating that distinction between type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction in these patients seems to be inappropriate.
Objective We aimed to assess differences in incidence, clinical features, current treatment strategies and outcome in patients with type 2 vs. type 1 acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods and results All 20 138 hospitalisations in Sweden with a diagnosis of AMI registered during 2011 in the Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies were classified into types 1-5 in accordance with the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) from 2007. Type 1 AMI was present in 88.5% of the cases while 7.1% were classified as type 2 AMI. Higher age, female sex, comorbidities, impaired renal function, anaemia and smaller extent of myocardial necrosis characterised patients with type 2 AMI. While normal coronary arteries were more frequently seen (42.4% vs. 7.4%), an invasive treatment was less common, and antiplatelet medications were less prescribed in patients with type 2 AMI compared with type 1 AMI. The group with type 2 AMI had significantly higher crude 1-year mortality compared with the group with type 1 AMI (24.7% vs. 13.5%, p< 0.001). However, after adjustment, the HR for 1-year mortality in patients with type 2 AMI was 1.03 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.23). Conclusions In this real-life study, 7.1% of myocardial infarctions were classified as type 2 AMI. These patients were older, predominantly women and had more comorbidities. Invasive treatment strategies and cardioprotective medications were less used. Patients with type 2 AMI had higher crude mortality compared with type 1 patients with MI. However, after adjustment, the 1-year mortality was similar.
Objectives:The aim was to investigate if there is an interaction between sitting time and leisure time physical activity on blood pressure and if there are age differences and sex differences in this respect.
Methods:Linear regression analysis on cross-sectional data was performed in more than 45000 men and women from two Swedish cohort studies, EpiHealth (45-75 years) and LifeGene (18-45 years). Self-reported leisure time physical activity was given in five levels from low (level 1) to vigorous physical activity (level 5) and television time was used as a proxy measure of sitting time.
Results:High physical activity was associated with lower DBP (P=0.001), but not SBP. Active middle-aged men had lower DBP (-1.1mmHg; 95% CI -1.7 to -0.4) compared with inactive participants. Prolonged television time was associated with higher SBP (P<0.001) and DBP (P=0.011) in both sexes and in most age groups. Watching 3h instead of 1h television per day was associated with higher SBP in middle-aged women (SBP: 1.1mmHg; 95% CI 0.7-1.4) and men (SBP: 1.2mmHg; 95% CI 0.8-1.6). Only in young men, a high physical activity (level 4 instead of level 1) could compensate for a prolonged television time (3h per day) in terms of DBP.
Conclusion:Prolonged television time was associated with higher SBP and DBP in both sexes and at most ages, whereas an increased physical activity was mainly associated with a lower DBP. Only in young men, a high physical activity could compensate for prolonged television time regarding DBP.
Background: Regular exercise reduces pulse rate, but it is less clear how prolonged sitting time affects pulse rate. Our hypothesis was that high physical activity could compensate for prolonged sitting time regarding the pulse rate.
Methods: Regression analysis was performed on cross-sectional data including 47,457 men and women based on two Swedish cohort studies, EpiHealth (18–45 years) and LifeGene (45–75 years). Self-reported leisure time physical activity was given in five levels, from low (level 1) to vigorous (level 5), and television time was used as a proxy of sitting time.
Results: A higher physical activity (level 4 compared to level 1) was associated with a lower pulse rate in middle-aged females (-2.7 beats per minute [bpm]; 95% CI -3.3 to -2.2) and males (-4.0 bpm; 95% CI -4.7 to -3.4). The relationship between physical activity and pulse rate was strongest in the young. A prolonged television time (3 h compared to 1 h per day) was associated with a slightly higher pulse rate in middle-aged females (+0.6 bpm; 95% CI +0.3 to +0.8) and males (+0.9 bpm; 95% CI +0.7 to +1.2). Among participants with a prolonged television time (3 h), those with a high physical activity (level 4) had a lower pulse rate compared to those with a low physical activity (level 1).
Conclusions: A prolonged television time was associated with a high pulse rate, while high physical activity was associated with a low pulse rate. The results suggest that a high physical activity could compensate for a prolonged television time regarding pulse rate.
Aims/hypothesis: The pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes is not fully understood. We investigated whether circulating levels of preselected proteins were associated with the outcome 'diabetes' and whether these associations were causal.
Methods: In 2467 individuals of the population-based, cross-sectional EpiHealth study (45-75 years, 50% women), 249 plasma proteins were analysed by the proximity extension assay technique. DNA was genotyped using the Illumina HumanCoreExome-12 v1.0 BeadChip. Diabetes was defined as taking glucose-lowering treatment or having a fasting plasma glucose of >= 7.0 mmol/l. The associations between proteins and diabetes were assessed using logistic regression. To investigate causal relationships between proteins and diabetes, a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomisation was performed based on large, genome-wide association studies belonging to the DIAGRAM and MAGIC consortia, and a genome-wide association study in the EpiHealth study.
Results: Twenty-six proteins were positively associated with diabetes, including cathepsin D, retinal dehydrogenase 1, alpha-l-iduronidase, hydroxyacid oxidase 1 and galectin-4 (top five findings). Three proteins, lipoprotein lipase, IGF-binding protein 2 and paraoxonase 3 (PON-3), were inversely associated with diabetes. Fourteen of the proteins are novel discoveries. The Mendelian randomisation study did not disclose any significant causal effects between the proteins and diabetes in either direction that were consistent with the relationships found between the protein levels and diabetes.
Conclusions/interpretation: The 29 proteins associated with diabetes are involved in several physiological pathways, but given the power of the study no causal link was identified for those proteins tested in Mendelian randomisation. Therefore, the identified proteins are likely to be biomarkers for type 2 diabetes, rather than representing causal pathways.
Objective: Blood pressure variability (BPV) has been associated with risk of cardiovascular events in observational studies, independently of mean BP levels. In states with higher autonomic imbalance, such as in diabetes, the importance of BP variability may theoretically be even greater. We aimed to investigate the incremental value of BPV for prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.
Methods: We identified 9,855 patients without pre-existing cardiovascular disease who did not change BP-lowering treatment during the observation period from a Swedish primary health care cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. BPV was summarized as the standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), or variation independent of mean (VIM). Patients were followed for a median of 4 years and associations with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models.
Results: BPV was not associated with cardiovascular specific or all-cause mortality in the total sample. In patients who were not on BP-lowering drugs during the observation period (n = 2,949), variability measures were associated with all-cause mortality: hazard ratios were 1.05, 1.04 and 1.05 for 50% increases in SD, CV and VIM, respectively, adjusted for Framingham risk score risk factors, including mean BP. However, the addition of the variability measures in this subgroup only led to very minimal improvement in discrimination, indicating they may have limited clinical usefulness (change in C-statistic ranged from 0.000–0.003 in all models).
Conclusions: Although BPV was independently associated with all-cause mortality in diabetes patients in primary care who did not have pre-existing cardiovascular disease or BP-lowering drugs, it may be of minimal clinical usefulness above and beyond that of other routinely measured predictors, including mean BP.
Objective: To determine the incremental value of ambulatory blood pressure (BP) in predicting cardiovascular risk when the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is known. Methods: We included 780 men without cardiovascular disease from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, all aged approximately 70 years at baseline. We first screened ambulatory systolic BP (ASBP) parameters for their incremental value by adding them to a model with 10-year FRS. For the best ASBP parameter we estimated HRs and changes in discrimination, calibration and reclassification. We also estimated the difference in the number of men started on treatment and in the number of men protected against a cardiovascular event. Results: Mean daytime ASBP had the highest incremental value; adding other parameters did not yield further improvements. While ASBP was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, addition to FRS led to only small increases to the overall model fit, discrimination (a 1% increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), calibration and reclassification. We estimated that for every 10 000 men screened with ASBP, 141 fewer would start a new BP-lowering treatment (95% CI 62 to 220 less treated), but this would result in 7 fewer cardiovascular events prevented over the subsequent 10 years (95% CI 21 fewer events prevented to 7 more events prevented). Conclusions: In addition to a standard cardiovascular risk assessment it is not clear that ambulatory BP measurement provides further incremental value. The clinical role of ambulatory BP requires ongoing careful consideration.
OBJECTIVE: Treatment effects to binary endpoints using time-to-event data in randomised controlled trials are typically summarised by reporting HRs derived with Cox proportional hazard models. Alternative and complementary methods include summarising the between-treatment differences on the metric time scale, quantifying the effect as delay of the event (DoE). The aim of this study was to reassess data from the PLATO study expressing the effects as the time by which the main outcomes are delayed or hastened due to treatment.
METHODS: PLATO was a randomised controlled double-blind multicentre study (n=18,624), conducted between 2006 and 2008, which demonstrated superiority of the antiplatelet treatment ticagrelor over clopidogrel in reducing risk of several cardiovascular events. In the present study, four of the main PLATO outcomes were reassessed by calculating the time by which an event may be delayed due to the treatment.
RESULTS: The effects of ticagrelor, as compared with clopidogrel, consisted of a substantial delay of the evaluated outcomes, ranging from 83 to 98 days over 400-day follow-up. The Delay of Events Curves showed that the effects progressively increased over time, and the significant findings were concordant with those presented in the original PLATO study.
CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed evidence of a beneficial effect of ticagrelor over clopidogrel, and provided the magnitude of such effects in terms of delayed event time. Investigating time-to-event data with a percentile approach allows presenting treatment effects from randomised controlled studies as absolute measures of the time by which an event may be delayed due to the treatment.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PLATO (www.clinicaltrials.gov; NCT00391872); Results.
Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
Objectives: This study aimed to investigate patients' willingness to initiate a preventive treatment and compared two established effect measures to the newly developed Delay of Events (DoE) measure that expresses treatment effect as a gain in event-free time. Methods: In this cross-sectional, randomized survey experiment in the general Swedish population, 1079 respondents (response rate 60.9%) were asked to consider a preventive cardiovascular treatment. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of three effect descriptions: DoE, relative risk reduction (RRR), or absolute risk reduction (ARR). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed investigating willingness to initiate treatment, views on treatment benefit, motivation and importance to adhere and willingness to pay for treatment. Results: Eighty-one percent were willing to take the medication when the effect was described as DoE, 83.0% when it was described as RRR and 62.8% when it was described as ARR. DoE and RRR was further associated with positive views on treatment benefit, motivation, importance to adhere and WTP. Conclusions: Presenting treatment effect as DoE or RRR was associated with a high willingness to initiate treatment. Practice implications: An approach based on the novel time-based measure DoE may be of value in clinical communication and shared decision making.
Background Common measures used to describe preventive treatment effects today are proportional, i.e. they compare the proportions of events in relative or absolute terms, however they are not easily interpreted from the patient's perspective and different magnitudes do not seem to clearly discriminate between levels of effect presented to people. Methods In this randomised cross-sectional survey experiment, performed in a Swedish population-based sample (n=1041, response rate 58.6%), the respondents, aged between 40 and 75years were given information on a hypothetical preventive cardiovascular treatment. Respondents were randomised into groups in which the treatment was described as having the effect of delaying a heart attack for different periods of time (Delay of Event,DoE): 1month, 6months or 18months. Respondents were thereafter asked about their willingness to initiate such therapy, as well as questions about how they valued the proposed therapy. ResultsLonger DoE:s were associated with comparatively greater willingness to initiate treatment. The proportions accepting treatment were 81, 71 and 46% when postponement was 18months, 6months and 1month respectively. In adjusted binary logistic regression models the odds ratio for being willing to take therapy was 4.45 (95% CI 2.72-7.30) for a DoE of 6months, and 6.08 (95% CI 3.61-10.23) for a DoE of 18months compared with a DoE of 1month. Greater belief in the necessity of medical treatment increased the odds of being willing to initiate therapy. ConclusionsLay people's willingness to initiate preventive therapy was sensitive to the magnitude of the effect presented as DoE. The results indicate that DoE is a comprehensible effect measure, of potential value in shared clinical decision-making.
Cardiopulmonary diseases are major causes of death worldwide, but currently recommended strategies for diagnosis and prevention may be outdated because of recent changes in risk factor patterns. The Swedish CArdioPulmonarybioImage Study (SCAPIS) combines the use of new imaging technologies, advances in large-scale 'omics' and epidemiological analyses to extensively characterize a Swedish cohort of 30 000 men and women aged between 50 and 64 years. The information obtained will be used to improve risk prediction of cardiopulmonary diseases and optimize the ability to study disease mechanisms. A comprehensive pilot study in 1111 individuals, which was completed in 2012, demonstrated the feasibility and financial and ethical consequences of SCAPIS. Recruitment to the national, multicentre study has recently started.
Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
Elevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study explored the association between BMI changes in the first 18 months of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and the risk of long-term CVD mortality.
A total of 8486 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and no previous history of CVD or cancer were identified from 84 primary-care centres in Sweden. During the first year after diagnosis, patients were grouped according to BMI change: 'Increase', or >= +1 BMI unit; 'unchanged', or between +1 and-1 BMI unit; and 'decrease', or <=-1 BMI unit. Associations between BMI change and CVD mortality, defined as death from stroke, myocardial infarction or sudden death, were estimated using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models (NCT 01121315).
Baseline mean age was 60.0 years and mean BMI was 30.2 kg/m(2). Patients were followed for up to 9 years (median: 4.6 years). During the first 18 months, 53.4% had no change in their BMI, while 32.2% decreased and 14.4% increased. Compared with patients with unchanged BMI, those with an increased BMI had higher risks of CVD mortality (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.11-2.39) and all-cause mortality (1.33, 1.01-1.76). BMI decreases had no association with these risks compared with unchanged BMI: 1.06 (0.76-1.48) and 1.06 (0.85-1.33), respectively.
Increased BMI within the first 18 months of type 2 diabetes diagnosis was associated with an increased long-term risk of CVD mortality. However, BMI decrease did not lower the long-term risk of mortality.
ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to explore the impact of severe mental illness (SMI) on myocardial infarction survival and determine the influence of risk factor burden, myocardial infarction severity and different treatments. Design, setting and participantsThis population-based cohort study, conducted in Sweden during the period 1997-2010, included all patients with a first diagnosis of myocardial infarction in the Swedish nationwide myocardial infarction register SWEDEHEART (n=209592). Exposure was defined as a diagnosis of SMI (i.e. bipolar disorder or schizophrenia) in the national patient register prior to infarction. Bias-minimized logistic regression models were identified using directed acyclic graphs and included covariates age, gender, smoking, diabetes, previous cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction characteristics and treatment. Main outcome measuresThe outcomes were 30-day and 1-year mortality, obtained through linkage with national population registers. ResultsPatients with bipolar disorder (n=442) and schizophrenia (n=541) were younger (mean age 68 and 63years, respectively) than those without SMI (n=208609; mean age 71years). The overall 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 10% and 18%, respectively. Compared with patients without SMI, patients with SMI had higher 30-day [odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.55-2.56] and 1-year mortality (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.74-2.56) in the fully adjusted model. The highest mortality was observed amongst patients with schizophrenia (30-day mortality: OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.88-3.54; 1-year mortality: OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.98-3.29). ConclusionSMI is associated with a markedly higher mortality after myocardial infarction, also after accounting for contributing factors. It is imperative to identify the reasons for this higher mortality.
To explore measures in electrocardiograms (ECG) influenced by autonomic balance in early schizophrenia spectrum disorders and to examine their relation to subsequent first antipsychotic pharmacotherapy discontinuation and five-year remission status.
Twelve-lead ECGs were recorded at baseline in 58 patients with first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorders and in 47 healthy controls of similar age. Selected ECG variables included heart rate and measures of repolarization. Pharmacotherapy data were extracted from medical records. At a five-year follow-up the patients were interviewed and assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale.
Patients had higher heart rate and a different ST-T pattern than the controls. High T-wave amplitudes in the leads aVF and V5 and ST-elevations in V5 were associated both with higher risk of an earlier discontinuation of first antipsychotic pharmacotherapy and with non-remission five years later.
In this longitudinal cohort study, simple ECG measures influenced by autonomic balance in the early phase of schizophrenia spectrum disorders contained prognostic information. As this is the first report of this association and is based on a relatively small sample, the results should be interpreted with caution.
The results of experimental studies suggest that vitamin D deficiency activates the renin-angiotensin system and predisposes to hypertension. Results of previous epidemiological studies investigating the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] status and hypertension have not been consistent, perhaps because of their sole reliance on office blood pressure (BP) measurements leading to some misclassification of hypertension status. No previous studies have examined the association between 25(OH)D status and confirmed hypertension assessed with both office and 24-h BP measurements.
In this cross-sectional study, we investigated 833 Caucasian men, aged 71 +/- 0.6 years, to determine the association between plasma 25(OH)D concentrations, measured with high-pressure liquid chromatography mass spectrometry, and the prevalence of hypertension. We used both supine office and 24-h BP measurements for classifying participants as normotensive or confirmed hypertensive; participants with inconsistent classifications were excluded.
In a multivariable adjusted logistic regression model, men with 25(OH)D concentrations < 37.5 nmol L-1 had a 3-fold higher prevalence of confirmed hypertension compared to those with >= 37.5 nmol L-1 25(OH)D (odds ratio = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.0-11.0).
Our results show that low plasma 25(OH)D concentration is associated with a higher prevalence of confirmed hypertension.
FRAX is a tool that identifies individuals with high fracture risk who will benefit from pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis. However, a majority of fractures among elderly occur in people without osteoporosis and most occur after a fall. Our aim was to accurately identify men with a high future risk of fracture, independent of cause. In the population-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and using survival analysis we studied different models' prognostic values (R(2) ) for any fracture and hip fracture within 10 years from age 50 (n = 2322), 60 (n = 1852), 71 (n = 1221), and 82 (n = 526). During the total follow-up period from age 50, 897 fractures occurred in 585 individuals. Of these, 281 were hip fractures occurring in 189 individuals. The rates of any fracture were 5.7/1000 person-years at risk from age 50 and 25.9/1000 person-years at risk from age 82. Corresponding hip fractures rates were 2.9 and 11.7/1000 person-years at risk. The FRAX model included all variables in FRAX except bone mineral density. The full model combining FRAX variables, comorbidity, medications, and behavioral factors explained 25-45% of all fractures and 80-92% of hip fractures, depending on age. The corresponding prognostic values of the FRAX model were 7-17% for all fractures and 41-60% for hip fractures. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) comparing the full model with the FRAX model ranged between 40 and 53% for any fracture and between 40 and 87% for hip fracture. Within the highest quintile of predicted fracture risk with the full model, 1/3 of the men will have a fracture within 10 years after age 71 years and 2/3 after age 82 years. We conclude that the addition of comorbidity, medication and behavioral factors to the clinical components of FRAX can substantially improve the ability to identify men at high risk of fracture, especially hip fracture.
OBJECTIVE: To examine how change in level of physical activity after middle age influences mortality and to compare it with the effect of smoking cessation.
DESIGN: Population based cohort study with follow-up over 35 years.
SETTING: Municipality of Uppsala, Sweden.
PARTICIPANTS: 2205 men aged 50 in 1970-3 who were reexamined at ages 60, 70, 77, and 82 years.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Total (all cause) mortality.
RESULTS: The absolute mortality rate was 27.1, 23.6, and 18.4 per 1000 person years in the groups with low, medium, and high physical activity, respectively. The relative rate reduction attributable to high physical activity was 32% for low and 22% for medium physical activity. Men who increased their physical activity level between the ages of 50 and 60 continued to have a higher mortality rate during the first five years of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 5.27, compared with unchanged high physical activity). After 10 years of follow-up their increased physical activity was associated with reduced mortality to the level of men with unchanged high physical activity (1.10, 0.87 to 1.38). The reduction in mortality associated with increased physical activity (0.51, 0.26 to 0.97, compared with unchanged low physical activity) was similar to that associated with smoking cessation (0.64, 0.53 to 0.78, compared with continued smoking).
CONCLUSIONS: Increased physical activity in middle age is eventually followed by a reduction in mortality to the same level as seen among men with constantly high physical activity. This reduction is comparable with that associated with smoking cessation
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Using a discovery/replication approach, we investigated associations between a multiplex panel of 80 circulating proteins associated with cardiovascular pathology or inflammation, and eGFR decline per year and CKD incidence.
DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We used two cohorts, the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors Study (PIVUS; n=687, mean age of 70 years, 51% women) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n=360 men, mean age of 78 years), with 5-year follow-up data on eGFR. There were 231 and 206 incident cases of CKD during follow-up in the PIVUS and ULSAM studies, respectively. Proteomic profiling of 80 proteins was assessed by a multiplex assay (proximity extension assay). The assay uses two antibodies for each protein and a PCR step to achieve a high-specific binding and the possibility to measure multiple proteins in parallel, but gives no absolute concentrations.
RESULTS: In the discovery cohort from the PIVUS Study, 28 plasma proteins were significantly associated with eGFR decline per year, taking into account the multiple testing. Twenty of these proteins were significantly associated with eGFR decline per year in the replication cohort from the ULSAM Study after adjustment for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, medications, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (in order of significance: TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2*, CD40L receptor, TNF receptor 1*, placenta growth factor*, thrombomodulin*, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor*, growth/differentiation factor 15*, macrophage colony-stimulating factor 1, fatty acid-binding protein*, cathepsin D, resistin, kallikrein 11*, C-C motif chemokine 3, proteinase-activated receptor 1*, cathepsin L, chitinase 3-like protein 1, TNF receptor 2*, fibroblast growth factor 23*, monocyte chemotactic protein 1, and kallikrein 6). Moreover, 11 of the proteins predicted CKD incidence (marked with * above). No protein consistently predicted eGFR decline per year independently of baseline eGFR in both cohorts.
CONCLUSIONS: Several circulating proteins involved in phosphate homeostasis, inflammation, apoptosis, extracellular matrix remodeling, angiogenesis, and endothelial dysfunction were associated with worsening kidney function. Multiplex proteomics appears to be a promising way of discovering novel aspects of kidney disease pathology.


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Weather was not so cooperative with strong winds and intermittent rain greeting us at every turn. Owling was pretty difficult, but we did manage two Eastern screech owls at Honest Johns Fish Camp before dawn. The resident nesting Barn owl was not found and has not been heard lately. list The tidal pond at Sebastian Inlet had some Black-crowned night-herons but not a lot. Sometimes there are 20-30 of them. No Yellow-crowned were seen among them. list
Dawn found us on Longpoint Park Road, in search of rails. When I last birded this area, we were only a couple years past a hard freeze that slammed the mangroves. Milder temps in the intervening years have allowed mangroves to regroup and encroach into the ponds and road sides. Not good for rails, but good if you are a Prairie warbler. We didn't pull much out of the mangroves but got a couple American goldfinches at the entrance to the park. list
Next we went back to Sebastian inlet for the second of many visits. The rain and wind were confounding our schedule and our birding. The low tide was rather inconveniently scheduled for around 10 am when we were supposed to be in Pelican Island NWR. A couple hours earlier or even later would be great. There were some birds around the edges of the tidal pool, but no Semipalmated plovers. Also seen were Dan and Jeff Click who had managed to carve out a couple hours to bird among family time. They were killing time to allow the light level to rise before heading back to the road to Honest Johns to stomp for sparrows in the fields of the county park.
Pelican Island NWR was the first refuge in the system. It started as a small island where Brown pelicans and other bird nested. Since then the USFWS has purchased much of the surrounding uplands in order to provide a buffer to the island and protect foraging areas critical to the success of the nesting birds on the island. The orange groves along Jungle Trail have been cleared and planted with native vegetation in an attempt to recreate the Maritime Hammocks that once existed there. Several freshwater ponds where created in order to provide foraging habitat for nesting wading birds on the island. These new wetlands have dramatically effected the birding in this area. Rails, ducks, sometimes bitterns, coot, gallinules are now regulars in this area. We saw (heard) three species of rails: King, Virginia, and Sora. We saw (saw) 12 species of ducks (plus Mallard X Mottled hybrids) including Gadwall, American wigeon, Blue and Green-winged teal, Ring-necked duck, Redhead, Lesser scaup, and at least one Greater scaup. list
Rain, rain, go away! We were getting blasted by bands of rain clouds. Working the brushy fields for sparrows and buntings was futile, so we decided to hit the tidal pond and beach at Sebastian Inlet again, and catch some of the low tide. Good idea! We got the Semipalmated plovers (no Wilson's today) and lots of Magnificent frigatebirds, at least eight floating around. The strong east winds blew in a few Gannets, but the bird of the day was an immature Black-legged kittiwake sitting right on the beach. My last, and only other, kittiwake in Florida was at the same inlet nearly 24 years ago. Normally I would want the bird to fly across the inlet so I could get it in Indian River, but since the last one already did that, I was not worried. Dawn Currie got some good photos before having to run from cover from the rain, yet again. list
Continuing rain and strong winds deterred our hopes of woodland birding, so we decided to head up to "Chuck's Steakhouse" (now the Barrier Island Center for the Brevard County EEL program) for an early lunch. Behind the center is a wide deck with picnic tables and a grand view of the beach and ocean. We knew it was a good spot, because Dan and Jeff Click were there ahead of us. They told us of their earlier success in the fields and of a Bonaparte's gull they had just seen. Jeff spotted a loon, which I was not able to identify to my satisfaction. It was already heading north past us when I got on it. It seemed too small and thin to be a Common loon and I could not see the big feet trailing behind the bird. I thought it might be a Red-throated loon, but from what I saw, I could not eliminate Pacific loon or even Western/Clark's grebe. Red-throated loon is the most likely candidate, but I eventually decided to record it as Loon sp. In our 45 minute stop, we accumulated about 200 Northern gannets passing by in flocks of 10-30. Three different groups of Pomarine jaegers, the first jeagers found on the count in many years, tried to sneak past us by staying low in the waves. All eight were adults, the characteristic twisted central tail feathers seen projecting behind them. I spied a high-flying flock of ducks that turned out to be Black scoters on their way back north. No doubt they were part of the huge migration that occurred along Florida's Atlantic Coast this fall. Scoters are very strong fliers. Like many species of migratory birds, they often take advantage of tail winds to save energy on migration. Last fall, strong north winds prevailed all along the east coast. The scoters got so efficient, they ended up in Miami and even wrapped around the state into the southern gulf coast. Scoters are diving ducks, scooping up shellfish from the rocks along the bottom of the oceans, lagoons, and estuaries. Florida's waters do not have so many rocks or shellfish. Most of the scoters that end up here will turn around and head back north, often straight into the same brisk winds that brought them here in the first place. list
Next, we decided to scope out the lagoon and west of Sebastian Inlet from the south side. The shoals in the lagoon would soon disappear with the rising tide and we hoped to get a look before they did. It was somewhat productive with our biggest flock of Dunlin for the day along with the usual lagoon inhabitants. We can look from here toward Long Point Park and across the river toward the Sebastian River in the hopes of seeing American oystercatcher. Hopes were all we would see this day. list
After lunch, we headed up to a private residence near the top of the circle to wrangle up some warblers, hummingbirds, and maybe even some sparrows. We wrangled up practically nothing. The afternoon blahs and the winds took their toll. We managed a small flock of songbirds at the car that included our first White-eyed vireo of the day.
Next in line was Honest Johns Fish Camp, in the daylight, where we counted up the fancy chickens and plain white ducks. With permission, we walked the dikes behind the camp, as we (Dan and crew) have done for years. Nice variety of birds, including our only Green heron and Cooper's hawk of the day. list
We made several more stops before darkness brought an end to our CBC day. One of the highlights was Long Point Park, one of the few places we see Red-winged blackbirds. We managed one for our species count. The park is primarily a campground for folks who enjoy the lagoon through fishing and boating. Camp sites are crammed quite close to each other and are usually full at this time of year. We managed to find a few empty sites to poke our heads through and check the lagoon for oystercatchers, grebes, loons, and whatever. Within the park are a couple of ponds where I have seen Brant and American black duck many many years past. We did not get much in the ponds or on the grounds this day, or in the lagoon. I did manage to hand out a few business cards to some friendly and curious campers. list
We checked the Centennial Trail at PINWR and finally caught up with an Oystercatcher (and a Common loon) very far out to the west as viewed from the Pelican Island overlook. Centennial Pond held a few ducks, but nothing we had not seen that day. A White-cheeked pintail spent a good deal of time in this pond last year and it or another popped up again this winter. We did not see it here this day, nor did others who were there much more than we were. list
Our final challenge of the day was to find an Eastern whip-poor-will at the north end of Jungle Trail, a tradition that has yielded zero results over the years. We did nothing to affect the total, although we did get another Eastern screech owl. list
We finished the day with 100 species (not including hybrids, chickens, white Mallards, etc.), plus a few more species ala Click and Click. Not bad. We missed Savannah sparrow but got Grasshopper sparrow. We had a few nice write-up birds. I handed out a few business cards. More importantly, I recorded 20 eBird checklists. Since I downloaded BirdLog NA on my phone, I have been recording eBird lists at every stop on CBC's and while doing just about any other time I have been birding. Lots of fun and tons of good data for scientists to study.
Fun day. Good people. Can't wait to do it again. We won't have a South Brevard CBC in 2014, because next season we will be doing the count on January 3, 2015. Mark your calendars.
Fun day. Good people. Can't wait to do it again. We won't have a South Brevard CBC in 2014, because next season we will be doing the count on January 3, 2015. Mark your calendars.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
"Dunbar & Boardman started trading in 1981 and since then the company has moved with the times through the technological evolution. Given the rise of social media we needed to be in this space and it was in April 2014 I was introduced to Mike Pitt of Marketing Fundamentals Ltd, a Content Marketing Agency. Mike began blogging for us the following month and was also running our Twitter account. He also liaised with our staff to direct what should appear on the LinkedIn Company Page."
Increase Social Media following on Twitter and LinkedIn
Increase Social Media engagement particularly on Twitter.
Raise the profile of Dunbar & Boardman within the Vertical Transportation industry nationally and internationally.
Weekly blogging – Wrote a new blog post each week and this was published on the D& B Blog.
Twitter – Tweeted blog content and retweeted relevant third party content every week day.
LinkedIn – Posted to LinkedIn once per day.
Re-wrote website from a Content Marketing perspective, making content more engaging.
Web traffic to the Dunbar and Boardman websitre was up 54% within first 4 weeks of activity starting.
Twitter followers and engagement increased.
LinkedIn engagement and number of Company Page followers increased
Company profile raised within the Vertical transportation sector.
In September 2015 Dunbar and Boardman was acquired by TUV SUD, an international service corporation focusing on consulting, testing, certification and training.
Testimonial from Peter Boardman, Managing Director of Dunbar Boardman
" The effects of weekly blogging and Social Media activity were clear
to see: we were getting more traffic to the website, people were
staying on the website longer and it was having a positive effect on
lead generation too. Our profile in the wider industry was also
raised; the biggest suppliers in our industry (Otis, Schindler and
Thyssen Krupp) would retweet and favourite our content. Mike wrote
about some of the industry's personalities and key technological
breakthroughs. We also re-designed and re-wrote our website and this
further enhanced our profile and reputation.
There is no doubt in my mind that the work Mike did in raising our
profile helped make us more visible and for that I am grateful. I
would have no hesitation in recommending Mike Pitt to any B2B
Professional Services business. "
Peter G Boardman


text:
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text:
Debunking the SEC's Fear Mongering on Naked Short Selling
Media coverage of SEC chairman Chris Cox's "naked short selling" publicity stunt has suffered from the usual shortcomings of SEC coverage: naiveté, credulousness, and a tendency to accept pronouncements from our toothless watchdogs at face value. Nothing really terrible, just mediocrity and lack of skepticism.
There have been, however, some reassuring exceptions over the past couple of days.
In a commentary today, Jonathan Weil of Bloomberg expertly dissects Cox's emergency order for the fear-mongering fraud that it is:
"Forget naked short sellers. The fellow who isn't wearing any clothes is Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox," he said.
Weil notes that Cox's order is filled with contradictions and only serves to "deflect public attention from the government's own failures in the subprime-mortgage debacle." In an op-ed piece, Cox spoke of "distort and short" schemes while at the same time saying that the 19 stocks affected by his order have not actually been hit by naked shorting.
In other words: Boo! The SEC has presented no facts suggesting that anything like this has happened at these 19 companies, or at any other major financial firm. Meanwhile, the SEC is spreading unsubstantiated rumors that gangs of undressed, short-selling bogeymen might conspire to hurt the investing public, if left unchecked.Holman Jenkins made a similar point in the Wall Street Journal today, also noting the vacuousness of Cox's action. Naked shorting, he said, involves "technical concerns -- unless you imagine that naked shorts just take the money and run and never deliver any shares at all, flooding the brokerage accounts of innocent investors with 'phantom' shares.'"
This isn't inspiring confidence. It's fear-mongering.
That devil theory, popular among a few conspiratorialists, was not endorsed by Chris Cox, the SEC chief who enacted this week's new rules saying that naked short selling, which was already a violation, is now . . . a violation. Instead, what we have here is an exercise in symbolic confidence-building.As I previously noted, Joe Nocera was first on the case, and in a recent CNBC appearance set out the issues clearly: "The technical term for that [Cox's emergency order], it's 'a joke.' It's an attempt to show that they're doing something without actually doing anything."
Charlie Gasparino, in the same appearance and elsewhere, has taken the lead in denouncing the fatuous theory, being pushed by respectable commentators as well as the usual Patrick Byrne nutjobs, that CNBC was responsible for bringing down Bear Stearns.
I'm still waiting for someone to quote Cox's comment in December 1989 at a hearing on short selling abuses. It was reported in Barron's at the time, and I quoted it in Wall Street Versus America. After hearing the sorry pedigree of the CEOs blaming their misfortunes on shorting. Cox said, "Is this subcommittee being snowed?"
Today, in his desperate effort to divert attention from the SEC's crummy record in the housing crisis, Cox is the snow-er, not the snow-ee. It's time for the financial press to show a bit more historical depth and initiative in reporting the SEC's abysmal handling of this issue.
© 2008 Gary Weiss. All rights reserved.
Labels: charlie gasparino, Christopher Cox, holman jenkins, joe nocera, jonathan weil, Media, naked short-selling, SEC


text:
Zero Hedge: "Let's stop fooling ourselves: Americans can't afford the future."
More profoundly, the big picture numbers just don't add up. A nation that's collectively in hock to the tune of 373% of GDP – not including entitlement liabilities which launch that figure to more than 1000% – needs to seriously face the fact that it cannot make good on its current promises, let alone entertain making them larger.Not to worry: there's an unlimited pot of savings by not fighting wars we've already stopped fighting and counting the interest savings for money we would have borrowed.


text:
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe is counting on the LGBT community to help boost tourism to the Commonwealth.
He announced the formation of a task force to focus on showcasing Virginia as an LGBT-friendly destination.
It's a chance to build on the progress the state has made this year with legalizing same-sex marriage, McAuliffe said.
Tourism is a $21.5 billion industry in Virginia.


text: KOMU anchor Sarah Hill was the speaker for the July 14 Columbia Golden K Kiwanis noon luncheon program at Jack�s Gourmet Restaurant. She was introduced by Golden K Vice President Sharon Fischer. The subject of her talk was �U-News,� an interactive newscast, which she will host for the first time Sept. 12. Photo by Lawrence Rugolo


text:
Braise the onions, carrot and rice. Add the mince, spices and pour in a little water after a few min. Once the rice softens, pour the mixture into a tray. Arrange the roasted peppers on top.
To make the sauce, heat the butter and braise the flour in it. Pour in the milk and stir until it thickens. Beat the eggs and add them to the sauce in a thin trickle. Stir well.
Pour the sauce over the peppers and sprinkle 1/2 the cheese on top. Bake at 392°F (200 °C) for about 30 min. Take the dish out of the oven, sprinkle with the remaining cheese and finish baking.


text:
LIVE RESULTS: Black Friday punch up in Pontypool!
We're ringside at the Active Living Centre in Pontypool to report on the five-fight show, which will close the British boxing calendar.
Keep the refresh button busy as we provide instant fight-by-fight reports and reaction from the Batch Plant event, in association with Mo Prior's British Warriors…
Colcot's Maredudd Thomas (1-0) kicked off the card with a 40-36 decision win against Nicaragua's reluctant Geiboord Omier (4-23-1, 3KO).
The super-lightweight stands at nearly six foot and was keen to use that height advantage over Omier, who stood considerably shorter. Thomas initially found the range with his jab before stepping in with more solid backhands.
Omier attempted to spoil the flow of the fight when the pair came close, though the holding was subtle and nothing dramatic. Aware of the visitor's tactics, Thomas timed them in the third round, stunning Omier with a counter that persuaded him to stay in reverse.
The Welshman increased his output in the fourth and final round, which delighted new coach Gary Lockett, who he was working with for the first time. Thomas, a former amateur internationalist, remained composed when he closed the distance and will be pleased with a steady start to his new career.
Rhoose's lightweight Lance Cooksey (4-0) wasted no time in getting to grips with Nottingham's game Fonz Alexander (5-72, 3KO), earning a non-stop 40-36 decision win.
As soon as the bell sounded, the compact lightweight buzzed around Alexander with short bursts of hooks and straight rights. Alexander is one of the better 'journeymen' on the circuit and was keen to oblige, landing with his own work, though was outworked overall.
It was an exciting approach from both, entertaining the vocal fans and a similar pattern progressed in to the following rounds. Cooksey often had the first and final say in exchanges, though was careful not to catch Alexander's attempts to catch-and-counter in between the Welshman's punches.
Cooksey, another former Welsh amateur champion who is now trained by Tony Borg in Newport, has been relatively active with four fights since May but Alexander has been one of the busier boxers in Britain in 2017, competing a total of 25 times.
Garnant's super-lightweight Chris Jenkins (19-2-1, 8KO) eased to a routine victory against Lithuania's Arvydas Trizno (26-74-3, 7KO), which came courtesy of a 60-54 decision.
The former Prizefighter and WBC International champion was hardly required to come out of second gear as he further tattooed Trizno's heavily inked torso. Jenkins' favoured shot is a left hook to the body but he stayed patient, unlocking the angle with snappy jabs.
Styled as 'Rock n Rolla', Jenkins briefly switched stances in the second round, before reverting to orthodox and applying more pressure. Constantly edging forward, the energetic Jenkins often feinted as a prelude to his power punches, though Trizno was wise not to present an open target.
Trizno occasionally attempted to keep Jenkins at bay with wide overhands, which didn't land and only served to buy him a few seconds of space. Jenkins persisted and working his way in to land with thudding straight but appeared to signal a slight hand injury towards the closing rounds.
GETHING GAINS REVENGE OVER McCAULEY
Pontypool's Kieran Gething (4-1-1, 1KO) set the record straight in a rematch against Stourbridge's Kevin McCauley (15-158-12), taking every session of their six rounder with a 60-54 scorecard.
The super-welterweights drew on Gething's debut in a debated four rounder at the end of 2016 and the 23-year-old has been keen to gain revenge since. Fittingly, Gething was afforded the opportunity in his first appearance as a professional in his hometown.
Gething began aggressively and never let up, stalking McCauley from corner to corner to keep the visitor working hard. It called on all of McCauley's cardio and he appeared to be feeling the pace in the third round, visibly sucking and soaking up the pressure.
Sensing the tank was emptying, Gething upped the ante from the fourth round onwards, becoming more blatant with his intentions. He was rarely an metre apart from McCauley and it forced him to engage more than observers are used to witnessing.
McCauley has had the busiest year of any British boxer, appearing in the away corner on 32 separate occasions. Quality 'journeymen' – a term that sounds like an oxymoron but is valid – are hard to come by and the circuit clearly appreciates the role McCauley plays.
Closing the show, Blackwood's Kody Davies (2-0, KO) dominated Lithuania's Remigijus Ziausys (20-85-5, 10KO) and won every minute of the four rounder, collecting a 40-36 clean sweep.
The southpaw's second professional outing proved as equally exciting as his debut as he steamed out of the blocks. Explosive two fisted attacks forced Ziausys in to instant retreat and he was never allowed to venture far out of it in the opener.
Davies took more of his time in the second and third rounds, unloading heavily in spots but also walking Ziausys on to counters before neatly pivoting away to space and resetting the sequence.
The fourth and final round was fought at a slightly lower pace, which was understandable given the amount of shots Davies had already dispensed. Still, the Welshman was repeatedly the aggressor, taking Ziausys back to the ropes before peppering him upstairs and down.
Ziausys has fought as high as heavyweight in the past, surviving until the final bell against an assortment of world ranked contenders. On the other hand, Davies is aiming to settle in to the light-heavyweight division, hence the pair meeting in the middle at cruiserweight, where he operated whilst a member of Team GB.
Davies has plenty of experience to call upon with former world champion Gavin Rees as his trainer, Gary Lockett as his manger and International Boxing Hall of Fame legend Joe Calzaghe as a mentor.
IMAGE BY HUW FAIRCLOUGH. For more images or to contact Huw for booking, visit his official website, Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.
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