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Friday, September 8, 2017
The Game: Five Keys To The Wild's Season
We are at the front door of the hope springs eternal section of the sports calendar. It's great that the Twins refuse to die, but football has started, and hockey, and basketball, are just close enough to be annoying. So I've been doing some thinking (always dangerous), and I've come up with the Five Keys To The Wild's Season.
1. Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker in contract seasons.
A central theme to these keys is that this Wild team is no longer a veteran team with a few promising kids sprinkled in. The Wild is now a team with a solid core in the middle of their prime years, with a few veterans mixed in for seasoning. In fact, the Wild sits right in the middle of the central division in terms of average age of its players (per CapFriendly). Older than Colorado, Winnipeg, and Nashville. Younger than Dallas, St. Louis, and Chicago.
How much incremental lift can we get from what the likes of Granlund and Nino did last season? In particular Granny had his breakout season. And, if he starts the season at less-than 100% from his ankle injury...
Coyle, Dumba, and Zucker have not had that breakout season yet - at least we better hope they haven't. I realize that Zucker doubled his production from the prior season to last season. But, if he wants to get paid like a T6 forward, I'd like to see more than 47 points. What elevates Dumba and Zucker over Coyle in this case is that they're both playing for a new contract and Charlie isn't. I'll say 30-25-55 for Zucker, and 20-20-40 for Dumba as my targets for them. That's not a projection. That's what I'd like to see them produce, in a contract year.
2. Who is the backup goalie, and how many games will he start?
Over the past two regular seasons only one other goalie in the NHL started more games than Dubnyk. And didn't he start nearly every game after he arrived in the '14-15 season? Regardless, we've ridden Dubnyk hard and put him away wet since we got him. I don't know if that wore him out, and he certainly wasn't the reason the Wild lost to St. Louis in this playoffs (1.86/0.925). But, could getting him a little more rest down the stretch be a bad thing? Or maybe before the stretch, so he and the team can "get hot" at the end of the season and try to emulate what Nashville did this year?
More than that, it would be really nice to have a backup in whom the boys are confident. So, in the absence of that last season, if the result was that Duby played probably more than Bruce would have wanted in an ideal situation, and the rest of the team played more games with a higher degree of anxiety than everyone would have wanted, ideally (read every time Kuemper was in goal), then that situation was bad for everyone, not just Duby.
It would also be nice to have a viable backup if Duby got, you know, hur.....sorry.
3. Speaking of which: Depth
The Wild, not being blessed with an elite scorer, must have depth in their roster - in all positions. It seemed they were one of the healthiest teams last season. Was that balancing the scales after several years of shitty luck with health and other random calamities, or setting up this year for a return to even just a league average amount of man-games lost? If the latter: they need depth. The good news is that they appear to have said depth.
As mentioned above the Wild is right in the middle of the division, in terms of average age. Three teams younger, three teams older. (See my prior post for more numbers. Lots more numbers.)
Up front, what this amounts to is whether or not Eriksson Ek and Cullen can replace or exceed what Hanzal and Haula did last season, and whether they ever choose one position for Coyle and let him settle into it and maybe, just maybe, develop some momentum there.
On the back end, the key here is whether Dumba takes the aforementioned next step, and if Reilly and/or Olofsson can earn (and keep) a job with the big club.
4. Scott Stevens
More accurately, the absence of Scott Stevens. Russo said on a podcast recently that Bob Woods is a defensive coach, and that's great. But the theory on defense last season was that Stevens would command respect - from all the defensemen - while helping the younger guys improve. Scandella may have been the best defenseman for the Wild against St. Louis, and now he's hanging out at the Anchor Bar. So the key here is the extent to which Stevens impacted the defense last season, and in his absence the extent to which Woods can replicate that impact this season. And, if Suter doesn't buy what Woods is selling, look out.
5. Is this a good regular season team, or a playoff contender?
Initially, we were told by Fletcher that last season was still successful because they were so good during much of the regular season. He has since undergone sensitivity training because his comments at the State Fair with Russo were much less tone deaf. But those initial comments did offer a potentially key peek into the mindset of the team's front office/ownership dynamic. And remember: Fletcher is the man who doesn't believe in windows of opportunity in which teams are contenders. So at least he's consistent.
I've made my feelings clear on this blog on the degree to which I expect this team to be a contender at this point. But, heading into season six of the PariSuter era, having established themselves as a playoff team, this must be the season in which they take the next step toward contending. Another first round loss, in other words, must not be acceptable - regardless of whether or not they set records for regular season performance again. And, just looking at the roster, not taking the next step this year could result in significant change to the roster for next season - just looking at Mikko's contract situation if nothing else.
With another season's worth of data on this point in the offing, against what feels like a building sense of anxiety from the fanbase, it's easy to see that this will be a critical season in the Wild's existence.
What's your take on this? Join in the discussion on our message board.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
And Another Thing: Access
The debate between and around Souhan vs. The Bloggers may have been downgraded to a Category 1 or even a Tropical Depression at this point, but I still have some thoughts on it.
I'm not going to re-hash the details. There are good points on both sides, and there were displays of unprofessionalism on both sides as the thing peaked.
I've been a blogger around the Wild scene for a long time, at least relative to the history of blogging, and the lifespan of the Wild blogging scene. What took the wind out of my sails was the realization that game or team "coverage", without access, wasn't going to provide any additional value above what the actual pros who were covering the team with access provide. And, at that point, all I had was opinions.
There's nothing wrong with that. But I ran out of opinions about the Wild that I wanted to explore via the majesty of the written word. Maybe some of that is because the Wild has played out the same performance arc for what seems like every season since PariSuter appeared on the scene. That set list of opinions just became different shades of the same color. Or reruns of the same episode with different commercials. But some of it also was due to a growing feeling that I was simply singing the same song over and over again. I would have gotten bored reading someone else singing the same song over and over again, I assumed people were getting bored with me for doing it.
Here's where I come down on this debate:
There are circumstances in which what I want to read about the team will be enhanced by the author having (and using) access to the team. Quotes - better to be able to read what a player/coach/GM actually said, as opposed to what someone imagined they might have said. Informed analysis about team strategy/thinking/actions. That kind of thing. Insider stuff.
But there's also a time when what I want to read about the team would not necessarily be enhanced by the author having/using access to the team. Ruminating on trades. The efficacy of the GM. That kind of thing. We're all armchair QBs. That is part of being a fan. I'm generally willing to read someone else's armchair QB analysis/opinions. But you just have to accept that, if that's all you're doing - armchair QBing - then you're just putting forth your opinion. Which is totally fine. Where I think some glorified armchair QBs (read bloggers) get ahead of themselves is when they lose sight of the line between informed analysis and uninformed armchair QBing.
What has really blurred that line is the emergence of analytics. Now you can "know" things about team and player performance without even watching the game - as long as you can compile the data after the game. And, once you know things, you can blog about them, presenting them as analysis without need of access.
I feel like I'm right smack dab in the middle of the analytics acceptance spectrum. But the critical juncture for me is the perversion/engineering of statistical metrics analysis that goes on. As soon as your process becomes coming up with a theory and then hunting and pecking for statistics that confirm your theory, and then claim that your theory is fact - as opposed to coming up with a theory and then invoking the sports analysis version of the scientific method to prove - or disprove - that theory, accepting whatever the outcome is, you're done. You've got nothing.
In hockey, stats/60, extrapolated to indicate greater value for 3rd and 4th line forwards, or bottom-three defensemen, is one of those things to me. You simply cannot say that a player who performs at a certain level while receiving an average of a handful of minutes of ice time, would continue to perform at that same level if their ice time increased. You can't. I'm not saying you can't run the math. You obviously can. You just can't make the blanket assertion that actual performance would follow the mathematical extrapolation. Not if you know anything about how hockey is played. Not if you're aware that, as a fourth-liner, so-and-so gets materially less time on the ice against the opposition's better defensemen than he or she would if he or she was a 1st or 2nd liner, for example. And, if you don't know that, you shouldn't be writing about hockey in the first place.
That kind of analysis leads people to claim breath taking things like "so-and-so fourth liner performs at the level of so-and-so star player, on a /60 basis. Ergo sum, so-and-so fourth liner is under-utilized, and probably under-paid. And so-and-so GM and so-and-so coach is an idiot for not realizing that and either paying or playing so-and-so fourth liner more." Every bit of the foregoing has been written by hockey bloggers among the analytics/non-access set. One thing that having access does for the pros is it enables them not to have to resort to such Tom Foolery.
I don't think access is the only criteria by which to judge sports writers. I don't think access gives sports writers licence to claim superiority over those without access. But it does lend credibility to what they're saying, if not how they say it. Credibility that the rest of us don't have. We can voice our opinions. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that that's all they are: opinions.
As always, we want to hear your thoughts on this topic on our message board.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Hobby Lobby: I Guess I'm A Cruise Fan
I grew up landlocked. In Minnesota. Surrounded by water - most of which was frozen for long stretches of each year. I was lucky: my parents loved Hawaii. So I got to go there a handful of times. Vacations were typically someplace that was warmer than MN, which was not often difficult to achieve. But, until three years ago, I had never been on a cruise ship. I suppose I had a common perception of cruising: old people, shuffleboard, iffy food, Gopher, Isaac, and Doc. Not my bag. Plus, you're confined within a ship. I've never felt really comfortable on a boat. I've canoed all over the BWCA and the southern Quetico. But I was like Hoops in One Crazy Summer - just waiting for Demi Moore to come into my life and [EDITED FOR APPROPRIATENESS].
But then I married a Disney fan. And then we had two daughters, each of whom contracted the Disney disease like their mother. And we started spending our vacations in... Orlando. All of them. It may be called the Happiest Place on Earth, but it's really the Bataan Death March of family vacations. My wonderful wife, however, was reluctant to give up the Disney ghost altogether. But I needed a break from the Magic Kingdom. We had heard about Disney cruises from some other people with our approximate family dynamic. So we gave it a try. That was 2014.
We have now been on four cruises, have booked a fifth for next summer, and *may* surprise the kids with a sixth this November. We've done three Disney cruises and one Royal Caribbean cruise. We are, in other words, in.
I've been thinking about what it is that I like about cruising. Because I definitely like it. I like the efficiency. On our last cruise, we started in Florida, made stops in Haiti, Jamaica, and Mexico, before returning to Florida. But we didn't have to pack up our shit, much less get in a car, on a train, on a plane, etc, once from embarkation to disembarkation. Especially with kids, not having to pack all your stuff up every night, or every other night, is huge. And then traveling is tiring, and stressful, and a pain in the ass. Getting on and off a cruise ship at a port of call is easy.
I like how much you get for the one price. Maybe it's not materially cheaper than a land-based vacation, all in, but it's not materially more expensive, either. And not having to worry about paying for meals and entertainment a la carte also lends itself to a low-stress environment - which is a good thing when you're on vacation, no?
I like that, as opposed to the HPOE, your kids aren't tethered to you the whole time. As our kids have grown up over the past four years, they've earned more and more independence on board. We don't look at a cruise ship as a massive floating babysitter. But when our kids want to go check out the kids club, or a karaoke thing, that allows us to do something that we want to do. You get that flexibility at a much younger age on a cruise ship than you would at the HPOE. That's why it feels so much more like a vacation for everyone.
We have only had positive experiences with dining on our four cruises. Is the food outstanding? No. But it's not gross, either. And we've learned that cruises that embark out of a U.S. port must adhere to USFDA regulations, to the extent that they cannot even take on additional provisions at a non-U.S. port. We have also found our service teams to be professional, proficient, and charming and engaging. Look, are there slobs gorging themselves on cruise ships? Of course there are. Are there drunken idiots making asses of themselves on cruise ships? Definitely. But there are slobs and drunks at every other vacation spot I've been to - including the HPOE. There is probably a Xanadu of vacation perfection that is free of that kind of Tom Foolery, somewhere on the planet. But does it have twin FlowRider simulators, 25 places to eat, and a zip line on board?
As always, please drop by our message boards to discuss topic.
The Game: Central Division Stats
I'm working on a longer piece that will outline the keys to the season for the Wild. But, in the process of putting that together, I crunched a bunch of numbers. It occurred to me that some other people might be as into this kind of data as I am, and if I posted them, it could serve as a reference point for the season keys piece. I used CapFriendly and hockey-reference as sources. This means the ages are a snapshot (as of mid-August). And some data points are missing (Foligno's cap hit, for example). I used goalies for purposes of salary cap expenditure, but not for GP. This will be worth updating once opening day rosters are set.
Here's the Wild's profile:
Forwards: Parise, Koivu, Granlund, Niederreiter, Ennis, Staal, Coyle, Zucker, Stewart, Cullen, Kunin, Eriksson Ek, Ferraro, Foligno.
Defense: Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, Dumba, Quincey, Olofsson, Murphy.
Goalies: Dubnyk, Stalock.
Average Age
All Players: 27.39
Forwards: 27.50
Defense: 26.29
Goalies: 30.50
Salary Cap
Total Expenditure: $70.36M
% Total Cap Hit to Forwards: 61.48%
% Total Cap Hit to Defense: 31.43%
% Total Cap Hit to Goalies: 7.08%
'16-17 Season
Total GP: 1,267
Total Points (G+A): 646
5 Highest Salary Cap Hit Players
% of Total Points (G+A): 41.18%
% of Total Salary Cap Expenditure: 46.66%
Average Age: 29.60
5 Oldest Players
% of Total Points (G+A): 47.06%
% of Total Salary Cap Expenditure: 54.03%
Average Age: 34.20
Now, here are the same categories, showing where the Wild ranks within the Central Division:
Average Age (1st = oldest, 7th = youngest)
All Players: 4th
Forwards: 2nd
Defense: 6th
Goalies: 3rd
Salary Cap (1st = greatest, 7th = least)
Total Expenditure: 4th
% Total Cap Hit to Forwards: 3rd
% Total Cap Hit to Defense: 4th
% Total Cap Hit to Goalies: 7th
'16-17 Season (1st = most, 7th = least)
Total GP: 3rd
Total Points (G+A: 1st
5 Highest Salary Cap Hit Players (1st = highest, 7th = least)
% of Total Points (G+A): 6th
% of Total Salary Cap Expenditure: 4th
Average Age: 2nd
5 Oldest Players (1st = highest, 7th = least)
% of Total Points (G+A): 5th
% of Total Salary Cap Expenditure: 2nd
Average Age: 2nd
The Wild is right in the middle of the division in terms of age. Older than Colorado, Winnipeg, and Nashville. Younger than Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas.
The Wild's cap hit expenditure is reasonable, both in general, and at the positional level (and Duby and Stalock are cheap).
The Wild's five highest-paid players accounted for a nearly 20% smaller percentage of the team's overall points than Chicago's 5 highest-paid players did (Chicago's were the highest in the division). This suggests they're not getting enough scoring from the top of the payroll.
The Wild's five oldest players are not contributing on the scoresheet as much as the five oldest players from other teams in the division. Yet, they take up a relatively high percentage of the total cap outlay, as compared to the other teams in the division. And that group is relatively old, vs. the division. However, we also know they scored a heck of a lot last season. This suggests they are not as reliant on their top/oldest players. In other words: they have depth.
As always, please drop by our message boards to discuss topic.
Thursday, June 15, 2017
The Game: Hockey Fans' Summer 2017 Outrage Guide
Hockey fans, particularly the American variety, are used to defending their sport. Pugilistically, if necessary. That's what happens when your very legitimacy as fans of a sport is constantly under siege from the barbarian hordes of football and baseball fans. Now that we've got Charles Barkley, it's only a matter of time until basketball fans assimilate. So it's no surprise that hockey fans tend to have great capacity to drum up outrage over the perceived and real slights to their sport. And, when the opportunities to outlet that outrage run dry, hockey fans cope by teeing off on fans of other hockey teams, and the business of their own team - lest ones' head explode from all the pressure.
For 29 teams' fans, the Stanley Cup Final is a chance to recharge their outrage batteries. Well, 28 teams' fans. Vegas fans have nothing to be outraged about at this point. They always talk about the teams in the Final as having that short offseason to rest, recuperate, and get back up to speed before the season starts to ramp up in September. But hockey fans have a short summer, too. Because there are plenty of opportunities to vent outrage on the offseason schedule - especially this summer.
So, here's the hockey fan's guide to outrage for summer 2017.
June 15-17: Buyout Window Open
Buyouts have the ability to trigger fan outrage in a couple different ways. First, nothing gets fans' blood boiling quite like a bad contract. Either one that started bad, or one that became bad because the player didn't perform making the contract unappealing and, likely, unmovable. Buyouts are a way for a GM to shunt a bad contract, although it's not without cost. There is a protracted cap impact in a buyout situation, and that lingers like a fart in church if the team finds itself in cap distress while the buyout is still on the books. It's also a constant reminder of the unsavory situation.
It is being reported that the Rangers are going to buyout Dan Girardi.
Wild fans have suffered their share of buyouts recently. Matt Cooke and Thomas Vanek, for example. Mention either of those names to most Wild fans and the reaction will probably range from ill-disguised contempt to outright disgust.
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 2 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 16: NMC Waiver Acceptances Due
One of the features of the Las Vegas Expansion Draft rules is that teams can ask players with no movement clauses to waive said clauses for the purposes of exposing them in the expansion draft. The strategy here is to expose a veteran player with (presumably) a large contract in order to be able to protect a younger player. Such requests were to have been made within 24 hours of the end of the SCF. Players have until 5pm ET on June 16th to decide whether or not to voluntarily agree to waive their NMC. The Senators reportedly asked Dion Phaneuf to waive his NMC. Phaneuf reportedly has declined/will decline to do so - which is entirely his right.
From a fan outrage perspective, while there's no guarantee the exposed veteran would be chosen by Vegas, the optics aren't great. Maybe the player becomes offended by being asked to waive his NMC (that the team gave him, by the way). Phaneuf said all the right things the other day, for what it's worth. But this could trigger the same fan backlash as having to buyout a player. And, if the player in question is popular among the fan base...
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 2 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 17-18: Expansion Draft Protection Lists Submitted/Released
By now you know about the different permutations of how many of what position can be protected, and what kind of contracts must be protected. We don't need to rehash that here. What's important is that this is a point of anxiety for fans. And why shouldn't it be? Losing a player without recompense can't be any better than it sounds, and it sounds bad. Especially if you root for one of the teams that, by virtue of current roster composition, is going to have to expose several good, young, players any of whom would be attractive to Vegas.
Teams are required to submit their lists by 5pm ET on June 17th, and the lists will be made public on Sunday, June 18th.
This is situation that is ripe for producing fan outrage. "How DARE [insert GM name] risk the future of this franchise by exposing [insert player name]?! The incorrigible rapscallion! What if Vegas takes him?! This team is SUNK without him! Sunk, I say!" This situation is exacerbated because some teams are working out deals with Vegas to dictate who they take. If your GM doesn't make a deal, or if that deal looks ugly in the light of day, fan outrage will soar. Plus, this is exactly the kind of thing that hockey fans freak out about. Something they can nitpick and analyze in hysterical fits of academic impotence and myopia.
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 5 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 20: New Jerseys Released
Armed with a fresh new
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 2 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 21: Home Openers, NHL Awards, Vegas Roster
The longest day of the year may feel like the Mayan apocalypse to NHL fans. Home openers isn't that big of a deal, but the NHL Awards show is outrage primetime for fans. And it matters who gets snubbed because that is an indictment of that player, coach, GM, team, and fanbase, right? Hashtag eyeroll. But teeth will be gnashed. Adding to that will be the release of the names of the players chosen by Vegas. The combination of the award show and the Vegas roster has the potential to send fans into orbit. But, after all the wrath when the protected lists come out, when fans realize that they only lost one player, and that was no more players than any other team lost, maybe that will somehow blunt the impact?
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 3 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 22: Full 2017-2018 Schedule Released
Fan outrage about the schedule is usually limited to reaction to long road trips, or challenging back-to-backs. With no Olympic break, and no World Cup, next season's schedule may be less-condensed than this season's schedule was, too. Still, hockey fans will find something to get worked up about.
Hockey Fan Outrade Meter: 1 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
June 23-24: NHL Entry Draft
The draft is such a weird thing. You'd think it would be hard to work up much angst over your team drafting (or not drafting) some player you've never seen play in person, and who is maybe several years away from having a reasonable shot at the NHL lineup. But that's what fans do, in every sport. At least in football and basketball Americans have had a reasonable shot at seeing most of the draftees play on TV during their NCAA careers. But the middle of the bell curve of NHL fans haven't seen the kid from Frolunda who their team took in the 5th round play even a second of hockey.
As far as outrage, the draft is also an opportunity to bemoan the GM who has traded draft picks for short-term help, and/or the GM who has wasted picks in the recent past. Sometimes that's the same guy.
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 3 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
July 1-?: Unrestricted Free Agency
Which GM overpays? Which GM is too cheap, or has spent himself into a corner previously, to be able to address needs (by overpaying)? Which GM is always the bride's maid, never the bride? And will a GM pull the dick move and sign a RFA to an offer sheet? In the end, those most inclined to not be able to help themselves from overspending will overspend, those most shackled to a tight budget will sit quietly, and those most likely to resort to having to put lipstick on their own pig will try to find the shade that best brings out their eyes.
And fans will burn about all of it.
Hockey Fan Outrage Meter: 5 out of 5 Mr. Furiouses.
So there you have it. There is no shortage of opportunities for hockey fans to rage about things over which they have no control this summer. It's not even fair to call it an offseason. For hockey fans, there is no break from outrage.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
The Game: Bottoming Out
"With the first overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, the Minnesota Wild is proud to select..."
If Wild fans are going to be able to hear Chuck Fletcher say those words, a lot will have to go either right or wrong - depending on what side of the "blow it up" argument you come down on - over the next couple years. The only reason I'm even entertaining this idea is that I'm tired of the status quo. I feel like the output over the past five seasons is enough of a sample size to indicate there is some kind of fatal flaw in this particular roster. And therefore "they had a record regular season, give them another chance" is just unacceptably flaccid to me.
The rationale behind blowing it up is simple: the way to get the kind of high-end impact player that the Wild lacks is by drafting at the top of the first round. Think of the Penguins and Blackhawks. The Wild, when it has been fortunate enough to have a pick in the first round, has been just competitive enough during the regular season to pick outside the money picks most of the time. The one time it had a top-three pick, it used it on the franchise's all-time goals leader: Marian Gaborik. That, by the way, was in the team's first-ever NHL entry draft. This year's draft, in Chicago, will be the team's eighteenth. Those Gaby memories are sweet, though, eh?
The Wild is a nice team of low-first-tier/high-second-tier (and lower) offensive talents. Every team needs the kind of players the Wild has. It's just that most contending teams also need some kind of game breaker - which the Wild does not have. Even a plumbing company needs someone to go out and close business.
The downside in blowing it up is that it doesn't guarantee you that game-breaker. Think of Colorado. And that's assuming you hit with your pick - which is not a guarantee, given the Wild's draft history. So, you could endure all the pain of sucking for a protracted period of time - measured in seasons, even - and then walk away with Nail Yakupov as your consolation prize. Or, worse, AJ Thelen.
There is also the risk that you sacrifice revenue from fans if you lead them into the blow-it-up desert.
I'm of two minds about that when it comes to Wild fans. On one hand, there is no shortage of good hockey to consume in Minnesota - even if not at the NHL level. If the Wild tanks, one could easily see all those fans just go back to supporting their local college and high school hockey, eschewing the big league prices (to watch an uncompetitive product) at the X.
On the other hand, I want to say Minnesotans are so hockey-savvy that they would see the potential benefit of a blow it up campaign, and stick with the team throughout. Or perhaps that they'll remember the cost they ultimately paid the last time they didn't support the local NHL team - regardless of extenuating circumstances. Those feel like the less-likely scenarios, but who knows?
So, how would a blow it up even work? And there's where it gets tricky. There are no compliance buyouts anymore. Contracts are guaranteed in the NHL. And then there are no move and no trade clauses, not to mention contracts that are just so ugly that no one else would take them.
Trade The Vets?
One way teams bottom out is to shed high-priced veterans, garnering draft picks, while also performing poorly enough to maximize your odds of using those draft picks at the beginning of each round of the draft. Especially those high-priced veterans who project to be past their prime contributing years by the time the re-build bears fruit. The Wild, though, doesn't really have the luxury of that option.
Up front, there's one more season of Mikko ($6.75M cap hit). Two more seasons of Staal ($3.5M cap hit). Two more seasons of Pominville ($5.6M cap hit). Parise's under contract for roughly 73 more seasons ($7.538M cap hit). Mikko and Parise both have no moves. Staal has a no trade. Pominville, bless Chuck's heart, has both a no move and a no trade. Isn't that like a Pope making Jesus Christ a saint? St. Jesus, patron saint of....all the saints?
Defensively, for Suter see Parise. Three more years of Spurgeon ($5.187M cap hit), with a no trade.
In goal, four more seasons of Duby ($4.333M cap hit), with a no trade.
Six of those players are both veterans and carry either a no move, a no trade, or both. And they total $40.446M worth of cap hit. The other of those players, Spurgeon, is expensive and has a no trade, but is only 27. And, as the greatest of the scant few hits of the Fletcher tenure, I think Chuck would move his own mother before he moved Spurge. You're right, that's ridiculous. His mother and a 2nd round pick.
But Who Wants To Eat Their Young?
The problem with being locked in on the vets is that it leaves the youth as the stockpile from which to select assets to move. And, while none of the Wild's non-rookie youths is really distinguishing himself on a consistent basis, it's still galling to think of having to move them because you can't move the veterans on the team - who also aren't doing a hell of a lot to distinguish themselves. And then you have to consider that any GM with whom Chuck tries to deal has to wonder what it is about [insert Wild kid name here] that Chuck knows that he doesn't know, that is making Chuck be willing to trade him in the first place. Is it just that he forgot to give that particular kid a no move/no trade? And, if it keeps the return value down, that's all that really matters to this discussion.
Conclusion One
I just don't see how you implement an actual blow-it-up strategy right now if you're the Wild. In the first place, if a plan doesn't involve jettisoning a material representation of the veterans, can it be called a blow it up plan? I'm going to go with "no."
Now, pro sports GMs have a penchant for believing that an underperforming player on another team is only a change of scenery away from ascending to the very height of their potential under the warm embrace of their organization. So maybe you can get some other
How Would It Even Work?
Okay, let's sand table this exercise to see how it could even go down. Obviously lots of wild cards and unknowns, far more than knowns, but what else are we going to argue over right now?
Summer, 2017
Try to trade Pominville. Ideally not taking back any salary. When you're ultimately forced to take back some salary, try to do so in the form of an ELC, preferably with waiver exemption remaining. And a unicorn. And dinner with Jennifer Lawrence. When that ends up not happening, just try not to get fleeced. Outcome: Pommer still on the team next October.
Don't re-sign Mikko. If you want to bring him back beyond his current deal, he may not want to play anywhere else, even if you disrespect him a little bit by waiting to talk to him. And he's 34. As well as he played the first half of this season, he definitely cooled off down the stretch. Once he's just a faceoff/defensive play guy, he's effectively a 3rd liner. So okay, only re-sign him if he's willing to take a pay cut. But even then, I wouldn't go longer than 2 years. Three, tops. That may be a non-starter for him. But, as far as risking him feeling disrespected, what's the bigger risk between waiting until January 1, 2018 to start talking to him, or low-balling him now? Look, if he's reduced to a 3rd line role, he's more replaceable/less critical to us anyway. Outcome: Mikko still on the team next October.
Think about leaving Staal unprotected. His concussion in game 5 and the second year remaining on his contract may off-set the attractiveness of his strong regular season and relatively-cheap cap hit in George McPhee's mind. You'd have to decide if leaving Staal unprotected or asking Pommer to waive all of his coats of armor is worse, optics-wise, as far as a signal to other potential UFAs of how we treat them here in Minnesota. Outcome: Staal still on the team next October.
Plan to take at least one of Granlund or Niederreiter to arbitration. This likely saves you in the short term of a couple extra years in term, and possibly some cap hit. Outcome: Nino and Granlund both still on the team next October.
I trust you see the pattern here.
When it comes to the expansion draft, who knows? Let's proceed with the premise that our young, unprotectable D are most-attractive to Vegas. So, we're losing one. As far as losing two young D this summer, if losing one in the expansion draft is going to happen, and losing another one (e.g. in a trade) frees up cap space to address another problem, then fine. The whole point of a blow-it-up exercise is that the status quo is unacceptable. So you're either willing to make changes or you're not.
But then you're still down two of your top 6 D from last season. You need bodies. Is Mike Reilly ready to stay with the big club? What do we have in Olofsson - and does it even matter if he can't figure out how to stay out of the trainer's room? But, if #Oneofus and Mr. Band-Aid aren't the answer on D, then you have to acquire some (free agency or trade). That does fulfill the blow-it-up mandate, at least on D.
"With the first overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, the Minnesota Wild is proud to select..."
Frankly, the most-likely route to an actual re-build would be to take both Nino and Granlund to arbitration this summer - assuming the team can get 2-year deals for both. If the only option is a 1-year deal in arb this summer, it becomes less of a solution - even of the short-term variety. (I'm not 100% sure of how the 1-year or 2-year elections work in arb.) Do not re-sign Mikko, and plan to move on from him after next season (or trade him at next season's deadline when he's in the last year of his deal). And plan to shop Staal and Pominville leading up to the trade deadline in 2019 - when they're in the last year of their respective deals. In other words, target the 2019 entry draft as the one you're going to try to pick at the top of.
Conclusion Two
While that's the most-likely route and timeline to an actual re-build, once you start thinking that far out it becomes less-evident that you'll need to try to execute a re-build at that time in the first place. Think about it. If you're willing to wait two more seasons to start the damn thing, by that time Mikko's gone, and it's not like you're really accelerating the time frame by waiting until the trade deadline before both Staal's and Pommer's walk years anyway. All you have to do is roll with the current lineup without making major changes between then and now. That's highly unsatisfying against my "the status quo feels terrible" position way back in the first paragraph. But I really don't see a faster route to an actual blow-it-up.
But, hey, Chuck says teams don't have windows. So theoretically ours is still wide open. Maybe Vegas will do us a solid and take a bad contract off our hands just because. And maybe we'll find a back up who can give Duby some rest down the stretch next season. And maybe Coyle, and Nino, and Zucker, and Granlund can find some consistency in their A-game. And maybe Dumba will either find enough defense to be acceptable, or find enough offense to make his defensive shortcomings worth enduring. And maybe Santa will bring Parise a new spine for Christmas. And maybe Pominville....well, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
*All contract information from the good people at Cap Friendly.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
The Game: The Raging Impotence Of A Jilted Sports Fan
I don't have a good reason why I think Chuck Fletcher should be invited to not continue as the General Manager of the Minnesota Wild. But yet I do.
I've been in several good debates about this on Twitter since the Wild's season abruptly ended. The team has a good core. That's on Chuck. The team got arguably the biggest steal in UFA last summer in Eric Staal. That's on Chuck. The team made a big deadline day deal to address a perceived hole. That's on Chuck.
The team has solid younger players. That's on Chuck. The team has a very good coach. That's on Chuck. The team has an above-average starting goalie. That's on Chuck.
The team has some intriguing prospects. That's on Chuck. The team just completed a record-setting regular season and has made the playoffs for five-straight seasons - all during Chuck's reign. You read all that, and why the hell are we even having this discussion?
Well, the team's core is aging, and has not produced despite chances to do so, when it counts. It's also largely unmovable for one reason or another. That's on Chuck. That UFA splash didn't produce in the playoffs, and looked tired. Those deadline day rentals were a mixed bag. I'm not as down on Hanzal as some others, but White was not additive, and it's possible - though not provable - that the trade itself disrupted the room. (This is a minor gripe. I distinctly remember how lame it felt when Riser did nothing (a.k.a. Chris Simon) on deadline day.)
The team has solid younger players who, while showing some regular season promise, were hit or miss in the playoffs. Additionally, several of them are signed to relatively expensive contracts that would indicate a low value relative to overall performance. That's on Chuck. The team's coach is the team's coach because Chuck scape-goated his three prior hires. The team has an above-average goalie who they have needed to drive into the ground the past few seasons because the alternatives were unsavory. That's on Chuck (I'm not talking about the Kuemper contract deal so much as not addressing the issue sooner, and now we've wasted two more opportunities in part because Duby wasn't at his best which may have been at least partly because he was tired).
The team has some intriguing prospects, but none of whom were in a position to help this season, and Chuck decided to reverse his own decision and burn a year of Eriksson-Ek's deal in desperation as the ugly March wore on. The kids are also weighted to the forward side, and less to the defensive side. That's on Chuck. The team just completed a record-setting regular season that would have been even more record-setting if their collective character flaw, that doesn't allow them to pull out of ugly slides sooner, hadn't reared its head again. That's on Chuck, since it has been a trend and he hasn't rooted out the problem and addressed it. The team has made the playoffs for five-straight seasons, but only advanced out of the first round twice, and never farther than the second round. How much of that is on Chuck? That's where Wild fans choose up sides.
Before we choose up sides in this post, let me stop and say: my internal accounting of all of the preceding sums to at worst a push, as far as Chuck goes. Yes, the roster is inflexible. But isn't roster/salary cap inflexibility a reasonable price to pay for that litany of merits in a team? The team is certainly better now than it was when Chuck took over. He has traded away a lot of assets, yes. But it was always for some gain, and usually a defensible one at the time. Some haven't worked out. But, if he hadn't made those trades, I think I'd feel worse. Sins of commission versus omission, and all that.
So then, why?
- 2012-2013 lost in round 1
- 2013-2014 lost in round 2
- 2014-2015 lost in round 2
- 2015-2016 lost in round 1
- 2016-2017 lost in round 1
In the first place, making the playoffs for five straight years is not as remarkable as it sounds, given 54% of teams in the league, and 57% of teams in the Western Conference, make it every season. It's a low bar, in other words. Making the playoffs should constitute a base-level given for every team, every season.
But it's also the final outcome. Compare our record the last five seasons to the Blues, for example.
- 2012-2013 lost in round 1
- 2013-2014 lost in round 1
- 2014-2015 lost in round 1
- 2015-2016 lost in 3rd round
- 2016-2017 TBD, but no worse than losing in round 2
The Wild isn't improving. And, you could argue based on final outcomes that it's moving the wrong way. The problem with that argument is that it is difficult to quantify, and therefore difficult to address. Those first three coaching hires speak to attempts - and failures - to address it via the bench boss. I'm not prepared to get down on Boudreau at this point, but it's safe to say the issue isn't coaching. Which means it's the players. Maybe not individually. There are better-defined roles for players now than maybe ever before. At least in relation to the individual player's strengths and optimal usage. So, is it that the collective organism of this group - with minimal significant changes over the past five seasons - is either missing some element in the elusive chemistry department, or has some characteristic that is self-inhibiting? We'll never know that.
Those who cannot tolerate dwelling in areas where we can't know things look to the empirical analytical and take comfort and shelter from the output there. It's great that the Wild is so good at Corsi. And it might represent bad luck when you out-Corsi opponents without payoff for a while. But all of March and most of April starts to stretch credibility as a run of bad luck and reaches the point of being that acceptable sample size that the stats-heads are so concerned about (when the stats don't show what they want them to) as to indicate that, maybe these guys just can't finish when it counts.
I was therefore disappointed to hear Chuck talk about being a good Corsi team in March, in his end-of-season presser. The last time I checked you don't get to hang a banner for being the best Corsi team.
Ultimately this comes down to expectations. Conveniently, Chuck also espouses the idea that there is no such thing as a window in which teams can compete. Competitive cycles, if you will. That is the narrative of the perpetually mediocre - again 57% of teams make the playoffs from the West. It basically amounts to "We'll get 'em next year!"
If this was year one or two of the above run, that might work. Heck, he probably said that in 2013 and 2014 after they lost in the first round. But it's been five years now, and they're regressing. Also, and I realize this isn't Chuck's baggage to carry, I'm 42. Minnesota has had 3 or 4 major men's professional sports teams my entire life. I've seen two championships - from the same team.
I have no tolerance for "We'll get 'em next year!" anymore from any of my teams' GMs, players, or owners. I refuse to accept mediocrity anymore. I realize I don't have any impact on the outcome. But that doesn't mean I have to like it. Every single person associated with professional sports says it's about the ring. The banner. The championship. Every single person. Why should we hold them to a lower standard? Obviously life goes on if they lose - and they're more likely to lose than not. But you can still harbor high expectations and be a good fan. I expect championships. I'm prepared to be disappointed. But that's where I choose to set my expectations. Regular season Corsi success is an absolute joke, and it was embarrassing to hear Chuck talk about it as though we should all take solace from it. And, if that made you feel better about this season, then I say shame on you. You're selling yourself short.
I don't believe that I'm owed a Cup. Or a Lombardi. Or the upside down popcorn bucket that they get when they win the NBA championship. Or...whatever the hell the MLB trophy is. But, by the same token, every year that goes by where the only banner in the X is the retired #1 for the fans, that banner takes on more of a mocking, jeering quality - especially when the building sits empty as April turns into May.
So, back to the top. Chuck has had ample opportunities to build a team that takes the next step. He has failed. It's a performance results-oriented business. His performance, when it counts, has been unacceptable. It's like saying, I love everything about my car, but the brakes don't work. Or, we built you your dream house, but the roof collapsed in on you your first night in it. This is about winning championships. The moment it becomes about something other than winning championships, I'm out of here. Chuck has demonstrated he can't find the right combination of elements to keep the team moving forward toward that championship. Worse, he has shown a propensity to get tracked into one strategy at the risk of falling victim to another set of circumstances - as building to beat Chicago only to not play them, and losing to St. Louis anyway would indicate. Thank you, Chuck, for what you've done to bring us to this point. Now, like the players on your team, it's time to find someone who can finish when it counts.
Monday, March 27, 2017
And Another Thing: Farewell, Minnesota
I am leaving Minnesota.
Just putting those words to screen sends a little shiver down my spine. It makes things a little more real. I am not leaving Minnesota because I have any grievance whatsoever with the state I grew up in and have grown to love with every fiber of my being for 43+ years.
The reality is that I have a great opportunity for a job in Columbus, Ohio. My wife also looks forward to being able to start anew with her job in a way that hopefully allows her to spend more time with our kids.
This was an agonizing decision to come to. Minnesota is who I am: the lakes, hockey, winter, the seasons. The Twin Cities, and Saint Paul in particular, is where I've chosen to live. My politics match the city, the arts and culture is interesting to me, and outdoor activities fit in with my interests. In other words, everything I love is here.
But sometimes, a "You'd be stupid not to" opportunity comes along. In my case, it forced me to make a decision: Do we take more money and move away? Or stay where we are and continue to tread water financially? For us, it came down to the numbers, and we realized that we'd be dumb to turn away from this opportunity. A bigger paycheck for me and a lower cost of living in Columbus means that my wife can work less and we can have a better quality of life for a comparable household income.
A couple questions: Will I be a Buckeyes fan? Nope, sorry. Blue Jackets? Gross. I'll always be a Wild/Twins/Saints/Vikings/Gophers fan for as long as I breathe. I am Minnesotan at my very core, and here my heart will always be. I will miss it dearly: the lakes, the bitter cold winters and hot and humid summers, and the changing of the seasons. And this says nothing about being 12 hours away from family and friends.
This spring we'll put our house on the market, and go scouting for a new home in the Columbus area. Sometime after the kids are out of school in June, we'll pack up and move. At that time, we'll open a new chapter in our lives. In August, our kids will go to a new school and make new friends. At Christmas we'll come home to visit family. We'll celebrate birthdays with new friends. The sun will rise and life will go on.
I've had my emotions: the sadness that I know I'll be losing something; the apprehension of the new and unknown; the excitement of new possibilities. Someday I may physically return to live or retire here. Until then, my family will grow to love our new home and community.
It'll be a great adventure.
Thursday, March 9, 2017
And Another Thing: There's No Reason to Play Up
Last year, when the e-mail went out, I replied 30 seconds later that we were in. My son's agent wanted to go slow and think about it, but he overruled her, and we signed up. And it was awesome. He fit in with his team and was one of the leaders in scoring by my unofficial tally. What I found out after all the games were done is that he was one of three 1st years on that team.
This year, he was arguably the best player on his team. Our association splits Mites (8U) level kids into three teams, with preference to match kids by their school. Since players aren't rated by skill, this can lead to some teams being better than others. So, despite being the best player on his team, he was on arguably the worst team.
This year, nobody stepped up to get a spring league team together, so I did it. At the same time, one of the Squirts coaches wanted to get a second Squirts (10U) team together and invited mites to join.
This led to an interesting situation. We had some kids who were expressing interest in both teams. Eventually, 3 kids wanted to play up on the Squirts. I would argue that there are two Mites that could handle playing 10U hockey, and both are on the Mites spring league team. (Caveat: I don't know the 3 kids playing up this spring very well, so I won't comment on their skill level.)
So where's the line? One of the youth sports associations in my area (HGRA - St Paul) famously will tell any parent "Joe Mauer didn't play up, your kid won't either." I largely agree with this logic and I think there are very few exceptions:
- Your kid is head and shoulders above all the other kids at his or her level.
- You have two kids close in age and you want them to stay together.
That's about it. And even in the first case, should you?
Look. Your kid is not Wayne Gretzky. Sorry to break it to you. And hell, even if he was, I'd argue it's better for them to play at their level. Look at John Tavares. If his leagues and the NHL had let him get drafted when he wanted to be, he'd have been in the Steven Stamkos draft, similar to the Connor McDavid / Jack Eichel draft. Instead, he was drafted in 2009, first overall. While 11 or 12 years down the road Stamkos is arguably the better player, at the time it probably worked in Tavares' favor. Whatever happened at the time, he's the same player that he'd always have been, but he's not in Stamkos' shadow the way Eichel is in McDavid's.
Monday, February 6, 2017
This Week in the NHL
- The Wild have the 20th ranked road PK.
- The Wild have the 26th ranked road PP
- The good news? There are usually fewer penalties called in the playoffs.
- The Wild are 3-5-1 when trailing after 2, the second best winning percentage in the NHL (Pittsbiurgh 7-11-1).
- The Wild have allowed 80 5 on 5 goals, the second fewest in the NHL (Washington, 66)
- Three Central Division games this week: The Wild play the Jets and Hawks
- Also: The Hawks and Jets play each other.
- Nerd fight of the week: Jets-Bolts next Saturday.
Monday, January 23, 2017
And Another Thing: Drive-thrus are not for me, and no, I don't want a meal
So anyway, I eat out a lot. Sure it's unhealthy and isn't helping me trim my figure, but it's just a reality. Which brings me to the topic: Ordering fast food.
First of all, I always walk into the establishment to order my food. I park my vehicle in the parking lot, physically exit, walk into the building and step up to the counter to place my order. Is this exhausting? No. But apparently fast food is even more convenient if you order in the drive-thru lane. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but drive-thrus are just dumb to me.
Is it really that much quicker when there's 10 cars in line? Then you often have to sit there past the window and wait for someone to deliver the food to your car anyway. (I also do not understand why people eating their parked cars in the parking lot is a thing. Just go inside and sit at a table! Or go home and eat!) The other side though, from a person that orders inside, is that the drive-thru can slow things down at the counter. I've waited to have my order taken while the drive-thru gets serviced first, or so it seems.
It's also expanded to drug stores and banks. My family and I make jokes about what else could have a drive-thru setup, making it easier for lazy people to never have to leave their cars. "I'd drive into the building if I could," we say, in a sing-song voice.
My apologies if you prefer using drive-thrus and don't consider yourself a lazy human being. Like I acknowledged, I know I'm probably in the minority here.
Here's the other thing about these joints that really grinds my gears: Meals. The old saying about fast food places was: "Would you like fries with that?" Well, that's turned into: "Would you like a meal?" I don't know who started it, but every menu board has a numbered list of meal options, the main food item with a side/fries and then a drink. What a deal! You'll probably save 29 cents or something, too.
It's like a reflex for workers to ask this question, even before you're done ordering in some cases. I know what I want. When I ask for a cheeseburger and a medium drink, it means I don't want any fries so why would I order a meal? I'm also not completely against these meals; I'll get them sometimes.
My dad ordered a cheeseburger, medium fries and a drink at McDonald's recently. Right away, the fella asked about a meal. And then: "Well, the meal comes with two cheeseburgers, is that OK?" Um, no. He didn't want TWO cheeseburgers. One unhealthy patty with melted cheese is enough.
I'm a fan of Arby's, mostly for the curly fries. I'll often order a sandwich with the snack-size fries, because it's only $1 for the fries and there's less of them, so it's a way of tricking myself into thinking I'm not being as unhealthy as I could be if I get the larger order with a meal. Of course, ordering this way will usually get me the meal question.
This all may seem super petty and stupid, but that's why this is filed under the "And another thing" category. Feel free to tell me in the comments why drive-thrus and fast-food meals are amazing.
Full disclosure: I have not worked in one of these drive-thru establishments, so maybe I shouldn't be complaining about something when I don't know the process firsthand. More power to those that do this work. But this is a blog, so I'll share my opinion about it.
Now I'll go order my single cheeseburger with a small fries. No, I don't want a meal.
Please join us in the message boards to discuss this article, and everything else.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Wild Game Day: Debbils at Wild 1/17/2017
New Jersey Captain: Andy Greene
New Jersey Coach: John Hynes
Minnesota Record: 28-9-5, 61Pts (1st Central Division, 1st Western Conference)
10/22/2016: New Jersey 2 Minnesota 1 OT
TV: Frogs Sports Nord
Radio: Kayfabe 100.3FM
New Jersey Lines:
Monday, January 16, 2017
The Game: Sustainable?
It's official: The Wild is for real.
Really, the B2B sweeps against the Habs and Rangers AND Stars and Blackhawks should be all we need to know. But there's a whole host of other statistics in support of their overall good-ness this season if those don't do it for you.
So, because we're Minnesota sports fans, why aren't we happier? Because Minnesota sports teams have provided us with a lifetime of failing despite the statistics and other empirical evidence.
Okay, fair enough, right? So let's focus on that: is this sustainable?
I'd say the offense is sustainable. They are getting contributions from so many different sources that, even if you assume some of them would fall off, it seems unlikely they all will. I'm prepared to say that Staal will continue to have a positive influence on Coyle, for example. I don't think Staal is just on a hot streak. And Parise is still working on getting up to plane. And Pommer might get hot. I know, I know. But, in a season filled with crazy shit so far, why not?
.940/1.78 seems like it can not be sustained. But he's not making crazy, acrobatic - desperate - saves. He's economical. He's not getting rattled. He's strong mentally. Nevertheless, last season, the best save percentage (at least 40 GP) in the league was .930 (Brian Elliott). Ben Bishop put up the best GAA, with a 2.06. Ironically, both of those guys are struggling this season. If Duby does continue this play for the rest of the season, we better hope that same fate doesn't await him next season. In 2014-2015 Price put up the best spct and GAA, with a .933 and 1.96, respectively. In other words, Duby can come back towards (if not entirely to) earth, stats-wise, and still continue to be the backbone of this team.
I think overall team defense is sustainable. Last night Dumba and Scandella were a hot mess for two periods, and then got it together. Even Suter had an off game (LA). In other words, they're not all playing out of their minds every night - which wouldn't be sustainable. This team is built on defensive buy-in, always has been. That hasn't changed under Boudreau. With the defensively-responsible forwards we have I don't see that attitude changing in the room - especially with all these Ws backing up that mindset.
Coaching is sustainable. It has to be. Before the seasons started we all wondered how Boudreau had managed all those division championships, and whether he'd be able to do it here. To me it seems the answer is that he is a premier in-game bench manager, and he is willing to alter his overall strategy depending on the make-up of the team and it's current macro trend.
Injuries frankly are not sustainable. The Wild is healthy right now. Teams just don't go extended periods of time without suffering some injuries. Odds are that our depth will again be tested before the season is out.
The bottom line for me is that there is no rational reason to doubt the Wild's ability to keep this going. Maybe not at a .726 pace, but enough to contend for the division title. Our collective psyche is really the biggest reason we don't think that's possible. That may be irrational, but it is definitely founded in historical context. Do we have the balls to set aside decades of disappointment and heartache to get behind this team, raise the expectations and let our hearts run free? I just don't know.
Please join us in the message boards to discuss this article, and everything else.


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Business Tips | 04/09/2018
Finding Your Way
Not long ago I was sitting in a cafe getting some work done when someone I'd met before saw me and sat down. Our paths have crossed a time or two and he knows me as a startup guy who runs an agency. At one point, he'd been in a similar place – running a small business, building out digital products, trying to balance small kids with business, happily married, but over time he'd lost his way. His marriage failing, his business sinking, he didn't look good. I spent an hour listening to him and hoping to bring him some encouragement. As I left, I couldn't help but think about the key differences in our lives and how much I don't want to be where he is.
Here are three things I think are imperative to avoid blowing up our lives:
1. Know who you are.
No one lives out of their true identity all of the time. We make decisions that go against who we are from time to time. Without deliberately reminding yourself of your values and what's important, it's easy to take baby steps away from how you want to live. I like to get up early to read and reflect on my core values. It helps me start the day with a clear view of who I am.
2. Surround yourself with people who are truth tellers.
I have a great team of people at work who don't pull punches when it comes to telling me what's going on. While my employees and coworkers are increasingly more comfortable being honest with me, they aren't the only people I'm spending time with. I have deliberately sought out friendships with people who are like-minded and not afraid to press into my life. Accountability is key to staying on the right path.
3. Experiment with new ideas, but always do the work.
I love hacks and finding new ways to do old things, but ultimately, the true test is to get my work done well. Shortcuts and hacks are only valuable if our ethics stay in place and the outcome is the same (or better) than the tried and true methods.
What about you?
How are you rising up to the challenges of your everyday life?
What are the practices you incorporate to keep you walking down the right road?
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This morning, around 4am, a chirping woke me from sleep. It was coming from the hallway...

subset: commoncrawl


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Instantbird 0.2 beta 2 is now available in English, French, Polish and Russian. If you want to help with the translation for another language, contact us.
The new features of this second beta include a better handling of statuses, cool new default message and emoticon themes, a basic log viewer, actions on buddies from a buddy list context menu, and a lot more! Read the release notes for the details.
Windows users will be pleased to notice that this release is provided with an installer.
You can download the beta and read the release notes from here.
The development of Instantbird 0.2 is nearly finished and this beta will be the last one before the final 0.2 release which is expected to come relatively soon.


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Using HAR.com App you can scan this QR Code and instantly connect with me, Albert Cantu.


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This is one of my favorite go to options for an on the go breakfast, snack or after workout. There are several versions out there but I pumped this one up a bit to increase the protein content.
This recipe makes 6ea but I will often double the recipe and freeze in two's after I bake them. When I want one for breakfast I just pull them out of the freezer the night before and reheat in the toaster. They are still good just thawed out to if you just want t throw them in the gym bag.
Also check out the video at Fav Brkfst "Cookie"
4 ea med ripe bananas about 8 inches ea
3 Tbs Almond butter
2 c rolled oats
1/3 c dried cranberries (sweetened ok)
4 Tbs hemp seeds, raw shelled
coconut oil to grease sheet pan
- Preheat oven to 350 F
- Grease sheet pan w/coconut oil if not using a non-stick
- Peel bananas and place in a bowl. Mash up w/ a fork or potato masher until completely mashed up.
- Add remaining ingredients and mix well.
- Portion into 6 equal parts on sheet pan and spread into about a 4 inch cookie.
- Bake for about 15-20 minutes or until golden brown. Remove form oven and let cool.
*I like to freeze while on the sheet pan after loosening them. This way they won't stick together in what ever storage container you use.


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Scientific fact: the flyer is the most effective means of communication
This is a thing that is real.
Review time:
- He's dangerous for America.
- Danger=excitement.
- He's a communist, will raise taxes, and spread the wealth around.
- This is not 1988, communism is no longer scary, and I'm poor, so unless he's going to take my $41 and redistribute it to our nation's squirrels, I'm not worried.
- He will redistribute income, the cornerstone of communism.
- See above.
- He's friends with Bill Ayers, who has bombed the Pentagon.
- 40 years ago. In protest of a war. No one was hurt. What have your friends ever done?
- He will end support for Israel and "stand with the Muslims."
- When the hell did racists start loving Jews so much?
- He's a Marxist and a member of a Racists Black Power Church.
- Alright already, I get it! And this should have been obvious to me long ago, but racists automatically assume everyone else is too. Case in point:1
- Yet further proof:
- He refuses to salute the American flag or say the pledge of allegiance.
- Mormons aside, did American's forget that Jesus never set foot on our purple mountains majesty? If our claim to the sacredness of our land is that the country was founded on the principles of Christianity so was just about every country in Europe, not to mention our neighbors down south.
- Learn the facts. Save America. Don't vote for Obama.
- You mean learn the facts on this flyer and never look for any more facts anywhere ever, right?
If we somehow did elect an America hating madman, hell bent on destroying the "very fabric of democracy," short of lobbing some nukes on his first day of office, he could hardly do a better job than this guy. A man without hope, is a man without fear.
Also, I sympathize, as I too, have a middle name derived from a barbaric Middle Eastern mythology. It's Hebrew. Stay strong brother.
(image via Warren Ellis)
(video via Deus Ex Malcontent & boingboing)
- Also, so many people have forgotten about 9/11. Looking around, it's like it never happened. You'd never know. [↩]
One Response to "Scientific fact: the flyer is the most effective means of communication"
Mediocrity Complex – Three conversations, some real, some imagined, on the delicate topic of race on
October 27th, 2008 10:38 am
[…] from the library and I could send you all kinds of stuff on him.Me: Whoever's handing out those flyers is doing a fucking amazing job.In an alternate, slightly more plausible universe:"Reporter: […]
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The eco|mate connectors are an enhancement of the C16-1 Series and as a result they are 100% compatible with one another. Immediately obvious is this ranges' new design. The interlocking parts have been ergonomically shaped and are dirt resistant enabling mating and unmating of the connectors under extreme environmental conditions. The cable-housing comes with its robust metric trapezoidal thread (to DIN) which not only creates higher pull off forces for the cable clamp but also promotes quicker assembly times.
The new cable outlet offers a clamping-range to suit cables of between 6 and 12.5 mm in diameter. This has been made possible by an innovative cable clamp, which has been equipped with long flexible fins. Instead of requiring three different variants, as with the previous range, eco|mate covers it with just one version.
Another new feature is the receptacle housing. Instead of the previous oval flanges, the eco|mate series has been made with a circular design. Also on the housing of the receptacle there is a fastener allowing a protective cap to be fitted. On the previous style the protective cap required an additional screw on the mounting wall; this will not be required on ecolmate.
The eco|mate product range comprises of male and female receptacles, male and female cable connectors both in straight and right angled versions. Contact layouts are 3+PE and 6+PE with screw, solder and crimp termination.
See also:Ecomate Brochure (.pdf) for more product information, specifications, applications and ordering information.


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On the way through town to Andrews leaving do*, there was a steady procession of 'grey-tops' heading to the Arena to see Elbow. I've always liked them but didn't really want to pay stadium prices to see them – so um'd and ah'd about getting a ticket until it was too late and they'd sold out. I then got the new LP 'The Take Off And Landing Of Everything' and one track in particular 'My Sad Captains' just stuck in my head….a lament for lost days and nights with your mates, getting out of it and watching the sun come up.…..as the song says "What a perfect waste of time"……. "I wish I'd have got a ticket now" I was telling myself when, as if by magic, a teenage tantrum made a ticket available…. Simon announced that he had a spare ticket and asked if I wanted it…………Yeah! So I joined Si, Bel and Emma on what was supposed to be a family night out and turned out to be a great evening.
Support tonight was from Jimi Goodwin – with beards and subdued performances, it was a night of improbable lead singers. I last saw them at a Manchester Vs Cancer gig when Guy Garvey had joined them on a song (if I remember correctly). There were a few Doves tunes thrown into the mix and he went down well.
This was my first time at the arena and those Arup folks know what they're doing. There was a slight football stadium feel to the 2nd tier but the seats were comfortable and the view fabulous – hard to believe there's 13,500 people in there until you hear the roar of anticipation as the band walk on stage.
Tonight they had a lovely strings and brass section who majestically swelled the sound – and what a lovely sound it is. Great banter from Guy who seemed perfectly at home wandering up and down the central isle, getting us all to wave our hands and clap along (quite hard to do with some of the more Soporific tunes but we tried). We got to cheer at his sister, Boo at David Cameron and think about the plight of refugees "When you're forced to leave the country you love for whatever reason and here you're treated like Pirates, come to rob the treasure….sorry for going a bit 'Bono' on you but….." That's as U2 as it got…..'special guest' turned out to be 6Musics Shaun Keavney…..before he was swiftly removed by the security staff……
At one point Guy took a camera phone from someone who was filming/taking photos of the gig and took it on stage getting close ups of all the band whilst singing before getting a selfie with the crowd and handing it back to her – class!
The gig finished with 'My Sad Captains'…..just wonderful….before the inevitable encore which inevitably closed with 'One Day Like This' with Guy's son joining him at the end. Everyone was up on their feet by this point, singing our hearts out. I didn't see a single sad face as we left – the sound, the lighting, the music, the sense of being together – it was a Perfect Waste of Time
Bob the Chiropodist
*Andrew – sorry for leaving your leaving do early – will make it up to you next time!


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From Georgia, USA:
I have had diabetes for about eight years, and I have a friend at school who also has had it for five years. She is in the eighth grade, and I am worried because she doesn't take her lunch shots, and she would skip meals and shots if her mom and dad didn't make her do them (she has a good family). Even the teachers are worried about her. So they asked me to try to talk to her. I brought up the insulin pump one day, and she just ran out of the room. Anything you can give me on how to get her to realize she is slowly killing herself will really help!
Your friend is very lucky to have you as a friend! Right now it sounds like your friend really needs someone to understand how hard diabetes is, and how frustrating it is to always check blood sugars and take shots.
Even though she is struggling now, it does not mean that she is killing herself. You may want to talk with your parents about having a conversation with your friend's parents. Perhaps if you all talk with her parents to let them know how much their daughter is struggling with diabetes, then her parents can seek help from her diabetes team.
Original posting 2 Nov 2001
Posted to Behavior
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This Internet site provides information of a general nature and is designed for educational purposes only. If you have any concerns about your own health or the health of your child, you should always consult with a physician or other health care professional.
This site is published by T-1 Today, Inc. (d/b/a Children with Diabetes), a 501c3 not-for-profit organization, which is responsible for its contents. Our mission is to provide education and support to families living with type 1 diabetes.
By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use, Legal Notice, and Privacy Policy.
© Children with Diabetes, Inc. 1995-2018. Comments and Feedback.


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hotel extension, hotel furniture, Hotel Design, Hotel designer, hotel interior construction, Hotel furnishings, Hotel furnishing, Einrichtung der Suiten, Hotelausbau, Hotelausstattung, Hotelinnenausbau, Objekteinrichtung, Executive Suite Einrichtung, Hotelzimmereinrichtung, Hotelmöbel, Hotelausstatter
Daysha Hotel And Spa, Bad Ischl
The very fine Daysha Hotel, a treasure housed in a historical building in the heart of Bad Ischl in the Salzkammergut, was thoroughlyÂ
renovated. The rooms and suites, furnished with great taste and attention to detail in cream shades and with valuable woods, invite one to enjoy a unique stay. The hotel rooms, each of which bears the name of a historical town or village in Austria, were decorated with maps and pictures of the respective places. The hotel was opened in July 2007 and belongs to Luxury Lifestyle Hotels & Resorts.
|Hotel type:
|Boutique hotel
|Target group:
|Business travellers, spa guests, conference guests
|16 double rooms, 2 single rooms, 2 suites, 2 junior suites, pool and roof terrace, library, conference rooms, restaurant and lounge bar
|Furnishing of the rooms, suites and of the public area
Daysha Hotel & Aveda Spa, Schulgasse 9, 4820 Bad Ischl, Austria
|<- previous project
|next project ->


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The new 5m and 6m Cruiser XL trailed cultivator fills the gap between the 3-point linkage mounted models and the 10m and 12m trailed versions. With its six bars, the Cruiser has a 700mm frame height to ensure large quantities of organic material cause no problems.
The cultivator can be equipped with four different cultivation points making it ideal for stubble cultivation with optimum straw distribution after combining, seedbed preparation, as a fine cultivator for mechanical weed control or for loosening and venting the soils in spring.
The new HORSCH spring tine runs above the frame for a clearance of 700mm, up from 600mm. Its geometry allows for an easy upward rebounding without a large trip release height. This eases the stress on the material and increases the service life considerably. With a release force of 150kg, it constantly maintains the working depth of up to 15cm even in the difficult conditions.
The chassis of the Cruiser XL is located behind the tine section, in front of the levelling tools, and the working depth is adjusted via the support wheels at the front and the packer. The Cruiser XL is equipped with a fully integrated tractive power amplifier that transfers weight to the rear axle of the tractor while working by using lifting and lowering hydraulics in depressurised condition.


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Speyer Accommodation
Searching for hotels in Speyer (Germany) or Speyer accommodation? Speyer is a city in Rhineland-Palatinate district of Germany, Speyer has a dense centre which is dominated by the Speyer Cathedral, a number of churches and the Old town gate. In the cathedral, beneath the high altar, are the tombs of eight German emperors and kings. Speyer was one of the most vital centers of Jewish culture along the Rhine, although valuable little of that settlement remains today.
Speyer has a lot of attractions for you to see and explore, such as the 11th century Imperial Cathedral of Speyer is one of Germany's largest and most important; the Speyer Technik Museum has a large collection of airplanes, classic cars, locomotives, fire engines, a German U9 submarine and a Russian An-22 transport plane you can not only see from the outside but you can enter and poke around in, there is an on-site hotel and caravan camping also available; take a trip to the west of Speyer is the town of Neustadt that features both charm and wine tasting venues, while to the west of this wine region is the Naturpark Pfalzerwald, a wooded area studded with hiking trails.
Other Speyer attractions for you to see are the Jewish ritual bath and synagogue ruins; the Baroque Town Hall; the Historic Museum of the Palatinate; the Aquarium; the Archaeological Showcase, and the memorial for Sophie la Roche. The city's main gate of the 13th century can be climbed for a view of old town Speyer and the cathedral; it's one of the tallest in Germany.
Accommodations in Speyer offer hotels, inns, and guest houses, such as the Lindner Hotel, the Hotel Amadeus, or the Hotel Sperling.
- Browse the Speyer Map or compare Speyer accommodation from Hotels, Motels, B&Bs, Lodging & Hostels to Holiday & Caravan Parks.
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It's true that with the high prices commanded by habanos, and by the fact that Cuba is respected, bar none, around the world as the premiere cigar makers, it should come as no surprise that counterfeits are common. The question I'm sure you're asking is: how do you spot them?
To begin with, odds are if someone is offering you a "good deal," they're fakes. Cuban cigar sellers know the value of what they're producing and they will demand it. "Cheap" Cubans are acquired somewhere else, often at bargain prices, often for machine-rolled forgeries. Even in Cuba, fake Cubans are common, and if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Never accept bargain pricing, and try to stick to the duty-free shops in the airports, because you know they are legitimate for certain.
Cuban cigar forgers are so clever that counterfeit labels are applied in place of the originals, and the forgers are talented and innovative, so especially if you don't know what you're looking for, it can be hard to tell. However, the exacting standards demanded by habano manufactures is fairly precise, and the devil is in the details, so to speak. Take a look at this:
This is an image of a counterfeit Cohiba robusto that found its way into the hands of the Western Canadian contingent of Smoking Jacket's staff. Looks legit, right?
Take a closer look. See how the bottom row of white squares on black is partially covered? This is a dead giveaway. Cohiba rolls all cigars by hand and does not use a machine to apply labels. Therefore, their labels will not look sloppy like this.
A comparison of an authentic Cohiba:
In the particular case of the Cohiba, there were less rows of white squares on the counterfeit label as well. If you were familiar with the Cohiba brand you might notice that something looks a little off when looking at the label but be unable to pinpoint it. These tickles of instinct are often the only cue that even experts have, and it takes them some time to determine the source of their disquiet; so if you get a "tickle" like that, trust it!
Look closely at the cigar. If it's claiming to be a premium brand, then premium brands are hand-rolled, not machine rolled; so too regular of a roll could be a clue. There are machine-rolled habano brands (such as Partagas) but it is generally not worth the effort to forge them, since they do not command nearly as high a price. The construction should be solid but not perfect. Machine-rolled cigars tend to have more seams as well, so that might be another hint. Also it might contain a lot of adulterants that are only noticeable with intense scrutiny; such as broken glass, flour, tea, icing sugar, and more.
Another key is scent. Authentic Cuban tobacco has a one of a kind terroir. It smells like iron and clay. Take a really good, hard sniff. If you can taste the hint of iron in your mouth, a little like when you taste blood but not nearly as strong, then you have the genuine article. Smelling the stick is also an excellent way to detect many of the adulterating agents that forgers add to fill the tobacco out.
If the stick makes it that far, the final step is taste. A pre-light draw will tell you a great deal. Again, you should be able to taste the terroir (iron and clay) right away. There will be no chemical aftertaste; Cuban tobacco is not subjected to any sort of chemicals. All pesticides etc. are made directly from the tobacco they are harvesting! This cautionary note is doubly true once you have actually lit the cigar and sampled the first draw.
In this lady's perspective, there's nothing in the world like a good Cuban cigar, so I urge you to use your discernment and try not to get caught by those who would deceive you.
My thanks to Steven Umbrello for helping me learn how to discern a fake.


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… would you pay £50 for this playsuit?
We're going to go with "no" on this one – in fact, we'd probably take one look at it and wonder how on earth the staff in the store had let something so obviously past its best under their radar… and who on earth would buy it. If we looked at the price label and saw it was £50, we'd be even MORE amazed – even if it still had the tags on, and was obviously unworn: and we'd be even LESS likely to buy it, obviously!
Of course, taste is subjective, and for every officer out there who wouldn't wear this playsuit even if you paid HER £50, there's another who'd happily pay twice as much for the privilege – isn't fashion a wonderful thing?
Here are some other playsuits that have caught the attention of our officers lately…
This one looks like some kind of wardrobe malfunction in progress – or, alternatively, some strange kind of crocheted jellyfish. You know those heart-sinking moments when you step outside in a floaty skirt, and the wind blows it right up in your face? That moment can be a permanent one, with the help of this playsuit – at least you'll know you're wearing your most sensible bloomers underneath, though!
This one, meanwhile, goes a long way towards convincing us that denim playsuits are just a bad idea, all round. Er, at least it's probably practical for… something? Days when it's cold enough for long sleeved denim, but warm enough for shorts, maybe? We have no idea: but if there's a denim jumpsuit out there that's NOT a crime of fashion, we'd really like to see it. (No, really, we'd love to see this mythical item, because until we do, we just won't believe it exists…)
P.S. Want to look at some cute stuff, rather than fashion crimes? Head over to our sister site ShoeperWoman, for fashion, beauty and lifestyle topics and advice – and not a denim jumpsuit in sight!


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Having the new Magic how-to scrapbooking guide (available 9/1!) made this layout come together so nicely! Do you like it? You are going to LOVE the new Magic how-to book!!! This particular sketch is called "On With the Show," and though it called for three 4"x6" photos, I was able to tweak it to fit my two (5"x7" and 8"x10"). That is one thing about our guides: you can follow them exactly, or you can customize them for your photos or project.
Let me know if you'd like to reserve a copy of Magic now! You will LOVE it! I can't wait to share it with you.
All supplies from Close To My Heart: Splendor paper pack; Friendship Alphabet Large, Friendship Alphabet Small, A Flitter, and Treasures stamp sets; Buttercup, Goldrush, and Topiary inks; Designer Brads Splendor; Big Pinks Just Blooms (white ones); paper piercer
{Layout 2010 #41}


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We are garage experts. From floor, walls and ceilings, to doors and stage. We can make recommendations for more storage including racks for bicycles and tools. Want a special floor in your garage? Or perhaps an electric garage door opener?
Book a Free Consultation!
Have a project that you need some help with? No problem. Simply fill out the form, describe what it is you need a hand with and we'll be delighted to get back to you as soon as we can. If you prefer to have us respond by telephone, please provide your phone number in the message box along with the project details.


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You want pizza. How about twenty-one different kinds? You want pasta. Twenty-seven varieties. Ten types of veal. A list of specialties a mile long. Welcome to Carmine's.
This old school Italian joint and gourmet market has an inside that's straight out of the swanky 80's and a covered patio overlooking boats in the harbor. The Monster has a soft spot for Carmine's.


text: Our planner will help organize the overall goals for your project and and help us understand exactly what you need. Please fill out the form below in as much detail as possible. If there's a question that doesn't make sense or doesn't apply to your project, feel free to leave it blank. Thanks!


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SUNDAR BABA , celebrated for his six-stanza composition, the Ramkali Sadu, incorporated in Guru Granth Sahib, was the great grandson of Guth Amar Dãs. His father, Anand Dãs son of Bäbä Mohri, was a man of a devout temperament. Sundar grew up in an environment of faith and piety and developed deep affection and reverence for Guru Amar Dãs, his great-grandfather. The theme of his poem, Sadu meaning call, is the ascension of Guru Amar Dãs, described in terms of his having been recalled by God Almighty. The hymn states how Guru Amar Dãs had completely surrendered himself to the Will .of the Supreme Being, ever remaining absorbed in meditation on the Name, how he had, through the favour of Gurus, attained the office of Guth, how he, at the time of his departure, had appointed Ram Dãs his successor and how he had told his family to abide by the Will of t.he Lord and not to weep,for him after him.
World Gurudwaras
World Gurudwaras will strive to be most comprehensive directory of Historical Gurudwaras and Non Historical Gurudwaras around the world.The etymology of the term 'gurdwara' is from the words 'Gur (ਗੁਰ)' (a reference to the Sikh Gurus) and 'Dwara (ਦੁਆਰਾ)' (gateway in Gurmukhi), together meaning 'the gateway through which the Guru could be reached'. Thereafter, all Sikh places of worship came to be known as gurdwaras.
Search Gurbani
SearchGurbani brings to you a unique and comprehensive approach to explore and experience the word of God. It has the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Ji, Amrit Kirtan Gutka, Bhai Gurdaas Vaaran, Sri Dasam Granth Sahib and Kabit Bhai Gurdas. You can explore these scriptures page by page, by chapter index or search for a keyword. The Reference section includes Mahankosh, Guru Granth Kosh,and exegesis like Faridkot Teeka, Guru Granth Darpan and lot more.Visit SearchGurbani
The Sikh Encyclopedia
Encyclopedias encapsulate accurate information in a given area of knowledge and have indispensable in an age which the volume and rapidity of social change are making inaccessible much that outside one's immediate domain of concentration.At the time when Sikhism is attracting world wide notice, an online reference work embracing all essential facets of this vibrant faithis a singular contribution to the world of knowledge.Visit TheSikhEncyclopedia


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Gophers set up Gary Tinsley Memorial Fund
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Gopher Athletics has established a Gary Tinsley Memorial Fund.
The fund has been set up in remembrance of Tinsley, a four-year letter-winner at Minnesota. He was just weeks away from receiving his bachelor's degree in business and marketing education when he died Friday in his campus apartment. The cause of death remains under investigation.
The fund will help offset Tinsley's funeral expenses as well as the travel costs for his teammates to attend his funeral in Florida.
Tinsley completed his athletic eligibility at the end of the 2011. He saw action in 44 games during his Gopher career. Tinsley was No. 2 on the team in total tackles with 87 last season. The Jacksonville, Fla., native signed with the Gophers out of First Coast High School in 2008.


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AMSA Events
AMSA strives to help it members grow their businesses through top-notch education and training events throughout the year. To see all AMSA, member and industry related events, view our Events Calendar.
Take advantage of unparalleled networking opportunities, high-quality educational sessions, a dynamic keynote speaker, a first-rate Expo, and our ever-popular outdoor truck exhibits. Read more.
AMSA members from across the country will convene in Washington, D.C., to meet with Members of Congress about the importance of the $85.7 billion moving and storage industry, and its contribution to the U.S. economy. AMSA member participation in our advocacy efforts is crucial to educating leaders and policymakers on the impact that legislation has on our industry. Read more.
Get in-depth information about new federal regulations; hands-on training with new technology; and education about important safety and compliance issues that your company deals with every day. Experts from the industry, government and law enforcement will provide you with knowledge and tips to help you keep current and stay compliant with safety and operations requirements. Read more.
This day-and-a-half event will have the opportunity to expand your knowledge, connect with other small and independent movers and share best practices with your colleagues to help grow your business. Read more.


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Who doesn't love a good bow? They just add such a fun element to almost any outfit. One of my favorite places to find pretty bow bracelets is this little Etsy shop. Katie Bowhead not only has cute designs, but the quality is superb! The stitching is fabulous and she evens put a little label in the underside. I *love* my bracelet my sweet mom surprised me with and I can't wait to purchase more. I mean, how gorgeous are these?
You can also never go wrong with a KJP Vickers Bow


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Physician Update
November 5, 2012
It's not unusual that a new surgery-this time using her own tissue-is the option of choice for Gerardo, "even after such a long interval," says plastic surgeon Justin Sacks, who specializes in autologous post-mastectomy reconstruction. The news is that, fortunately for Gerardo, Johns Hopkins is now offering a surgical variation, the profunda artery perforator (PAP) flap, aimed at patients with her specific medical history.
The new approach is one of several types of self-derived breast reconstruction performed at Johns Hopkins. "The natural feel of a patient's own tissues and their physiologicalresponse to bodily changes," Sacks says, "makes autologous surgery the gold standard in this situation."
Over the last decade, he and colleagues Michele Manahan, Gedge Rosson and Damon Cooney have become adept at the various perforator flap operations that, unlike earlier reconstructive surgeries, don't involve removing muscle form the abdominal wall or elsewhere. Perforator approaches "take" extremely well and bring less pain and few complications because surgeons remove only skin and fat for replacement, along with key associated blood vessels. So Johns Hopkins routinely offers the deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP) flap that harvests belly skin and fat, the superior gluteal artery perforator (S-GAP) centered on the upper buttocks, and the transverse upper gracilis (TUG) perforator from the inner thigh.
And now, there's the PAP flap.
Like the other perforator flap procedures, this requires presurgical MR and CT angiography to locate the useful artery and vein nearest the site of fat and skin harvest. Because these vessels of choice perforate nearby muscle, they require microscopic technique to dissect out. In the case of the PAP flap, Sacks frees the profunda femoris artery and vein, then an elliptical flap of the attached fat and skin they serve, and eases all into the chest cavity. Then the profunda vessels are microsurgically connected to existing vessels in the chest wall or axilla.
"The elliptical shape lets us curve soft tissue into a nice, natural cone," says Sacks. And because the "donation" comes from below the curve of the buttocks, shading into the thigh, the lone implant scar is hidden in the crease-an obvious cosmetic plus. The site guarantees not having to worry about groin area lymph nodes.
As for Gerardo, there's a reason she's next on Hopkins' PAP flap list. As a pear-shaped woman, her belly would usually be the site of choice for donor tissue, but the fact that she's had three cesareans and a weakened abdominal wall make the thigh a better option, Sacks says. A tummy tuck, hernia surgery and a laparotomy also preclude the more usual approach.
"The take-home message," says Sacks, "is that we offer perforator flap breast reconstruction that's candidate-driven, not only as an approach for women newly diagnosed with breast cancer, but also to right problems arising from mastectomies, lumpectomies or reconstruction that took place years ago."
*For privacy, we've changed the name.
443-997-9466 to refer a patient.


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SYRACUSE — "You'd never know it by looking at the picture," says WSYR-TV Assistant News Director Roger Mirabito, but a scary-looking scene involving the ABC affiliate's satellite truck late last week — was all caused by a simple mechanical problem that cost less than ten bucks to fix.
Here's a photo from Friday, showing Livestar 9 surrounded by a cloud of smoke. (We're not sure exactly whom to credit for the photo, as we've spotted it on Facebook and Twitter, posted by different people.)
Mirabito tells CNYTVNews.com, "we had a news crew and our satellite truck headed to an incident involving the Seneca Indians."
Although the picture looks pretty bad at first glance (the original "tweet" we found implied the truck was on fire), Mirabito explains, "we had some mechanical issues." Thankfully, nobody was hurt in the incident. Mirabito added, "the part needed to fix the problem cost seven dollars!"
Livestar 9 has been part of the station's newsgathering arsenal since 1996.


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It's pretty obvious from a quick glance at HDR the "look" is quite different from a conventional single shot. But what's going on, why is it different? The issue is that HDR images (specifically tone mapped images) are capable of showing tone reversals. Areas of the image that we perceive in the real world as the brightest are no longer the brightest in the tone mapped image.
The HDR tone reversal look is most evident when the image includes the sky. Tone reversals are not so obvious in scenes that do not include the sky and are usually more successful when tone mapped to extreme levels. If you are not quite enamored by the full blown HDR look there is an answer. Blend the single shot image with the HDR image. It allows you to have the best of both worlds – realistic lighting (single shot), low noise, open shadows and controlled highlights (HDR).
Here are three version of an image: Single Shot 0EV, HDR image and 50-50% blend of the two.


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Hi, I've bought a 1975 1303 Beetle but unfortunately will not be going back on the road so I have parts available.
I haven't listed in Classifieds as I dont even know what most parts are Never mind what they're worth.
So I was wondering If you could help me identify them and price tag them, I'm not after making a fortune I just want to fund a project and not have my pants pulled down on them that's all.
I'll upload pics so If you could help me out I'd be very greatfull, cheers
The list is as follows and I desperately need them out of the way: I'd take £250 for the lot
Front anti Roll Bar Wishbone
Front Suspension Struts with Drum Hubs (pair)
Pair of Doors
2 washer bottles
Fuel Tank
Rear Drive Hubs (Pair)
Standard Gear shifter
Steering Rack
Rear Glass
Brand New Carpet
Torsion bars
Roof Liner
Theres probably more that I've forgot
How much for the left side door
1972 Beetle 1300