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Peter Griffiths of Southampton University wrote on the researchgate site:
"…..this is an area with a massive literature. The positive association (between more nurses and better patient outcomes) has been demonstrated against a range of quality and safety measures – primarily safety. Linda Aiken is not the only researcher in the area but possibly the best known.
Try : Kane, R.L., Shamliyan, T.A., Mueller, C., Duval, S., Wilt, T.J., 2007. The Association of Registered Nurse Staffing Levels and Patient Outcomes: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Medical Care 45 (12), 1195-1204 1110.1097/MLR.1190b1013e3181468ca3181463.
…for a comprehensive if slightly dated overview of the safety literature.
Recent reports from the RN4CAST study show associations with other outcomes e.g.:
Ball, J.E., Murrells, T., Rafferty, A.M., Morrow, E., Griffiths, P., 2013. 'Care left undone' during nursing shifts: associations with workload and perceived quality of care. BMJ Quality & Safety.
Aiken, L.H., Sermeus, W., Van den Heede, K., Sloane, D.M., Busse, R., McKee, M., Bruyneel, L., Rafferty, A.M., Griffiths, P., Moreno-Casbas, M.T., Tishelman, C., Scott, A., Brzostek, T., Kinnunen, J., Schwendimann, R., Heinen, M., Zikos, D., Sjetne, I.S., Smith, H.L., Kutney-Lee, A., 2012. Patient safety, satisfaction, and quality of hospital care: cross sectional surveys of nurses and patients in 12 countries in Europe and the United States. British Medical Journal 344.
Aiken, L.H., Sloane, D.M., Bruyneel, L., Van den Heede, K., Sermeus, W., 2013. Nurses' reports of working conditions and hospital quality of care in 12 countries in Europe. International Journal of Nursing Studies 50 (2), 143-153.
…although limited as they are all self report.
The translation of this to specific ratios is difficult – largely for the reasons highlighted above and the evidence on that policy is less clear cut. Try
McHugh, M.D., Brooks Carthon, M., Sloane, D.M., Wu, E., Kelly, L., Aiken, L.H., 2012. Impact of Nurse Staffing Mandates on Safety-Net Hospitals: Lessons from California. Milbank Quarterly 90 (1), 160-186.
For a favourable gloss.
Some of the limitations are covered in:
Griffiths, P., 2009. RN+RN=better care? What do we know about the association between the number of nurses and patient outcomes? International Journal of Nursing Studies 46 (10), 1289-1290.
…one issue that is very germane for many health sectors is the absence of medical staffing from this literature. See
Griffiths, P., Jones, S., Bottle, A., 2013. Is "failure to rescue" derived from administrative data in England a nurse sensitive patient safety indicator for surgical care? Observational study. International Journal of Nursing Studies 50 (2), 292.
This question is rooted within a wider context – that of managerialist control of care environments (Traynor 1999, Lees 2013) in which efficiency, effectiveness and economy are to the fore. This approach can militate against the consideration of qualitative, non measurable, outcomes which make a real difference to patients' experience (Tadd et al 2011, Dixon-Woods et al 2013, Hillman et al 2013). The reality is that many health and social care sectors, in the UK, are under such financial pressure and managerialist control, that the quality of the care experience is squeezed. Given current narratives of austerity, female undervalued labour and 'private = good public = bad', UK society has accepted that for example long term care of older people, and mental health, have to fight their corner for government and personal funding. I suspect that funders (e.g. DoH and FTs) ignore evidence, in any case, of staff-patient ratios, viewing it as idealistic and costly. However, they will not frame it in this way – the response will be that ratios are a blunt tool and should not be set down in terms of basic minimums. While I think it is imperative that evidence comes forth on this topic, we might need to consider that the translational model of evidence to policy is flawed. In the context of climate science, Pielke (2010) describes the actual relationship between public policy and scientific research as problematic; it is not a linear 'evidence to policy' model. The translational model, or 'knowledge translation' (Kerr and Wood 2008), in which scientists come up with answers which are then put into practice by policy makers (Wynne 2010) is contextualised within political and ideological frameworks such as that of neoliberalism and its adjutant, managerialism. Naively we may think that the job of scientists, and their allies, is to improve the process of knowledge translation so that policy makers, guided by clear evidence, can make the right decisions. Drugs policy research is another example of the failure of this model. In nursing, even if we had irrefutable evidence, there is no necessary link to this and health policy on nurse staffing. The UK's NHS is a 'highly politicized setting' (Traynor 2013), staffing of wards is as much a political as an empirical question.


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Antique Dolls can be very valuable depending on age, condition, brand and beauty. If you want to find the value of your antique or vintage doll collection please contact us. We buy Antique Dolls! If you would like to sell beautiful dolls that are in very good condition Contact Gannon's Antiques & Art!
History of Dolls in Brief
The first dolls were all home-made from whatever local materials were available. Many were made from wood or cloth. Later, they were manufactured from porcelain / bisque. They were very breakable and rather expensive. Unlike today, many little girls had only one doll which was treasured for years and then passed down to another family member. Times were rough. The only mode of transportation was horse and wagon. It is surprising any porcelain antique dolls survived until today! Later, composition dolls were manufactured. These play things were more durable but prone to cracking due to weather and temperature. Hard plastic dolls were the next evolution. Then rubber dolls were invented. They were as durable as the hard plastic and much more comfortable to hold.
Antique Dolls – Brands
Some of the most collectible French brands are Jumeau and Bru. They were known for their excellent quality and artistry. The clothing was exceptional and tended to reflect the Paris fashion at the time. Many accessories were also made for these dolls including hats, purses, shoes and even jewelry. Jumeau started manufacturing in the 1840s and Bru began in the 1860s.
Germany ruled the world of doll making in the late 1800s. One very collectible brand is Kestner. Kestner dolls were made in a variety of materials including porcelain, composition, and kid leather bodies. Another popular brand of antique German dolls is Armand Marseille which was known for making over 1000 porcelain heads a day! Simon & Halbig and Kammer & Reinhardt started the character doll market which focused on making dolls look like actual babies and less idealized. Heubach continued in the character doll market and is known for their pouty faced antique dolls.
Tips: Identify & Value Antique Dolls
Most antique dolls have some identifying marks. The most common place to find these is on the back of the head or on the neck. Usually there will be a manufacturer's name, or logo, and the mold number. This information will allow you to research the maker and gain valuable knowledge. Typically the finer the doll, the more valuable.
Check the type of construction. Porcelain tends to be more costly than composition
which could be more valuable than rubber. Please keep in mind that these are just rules of thumb and there will be exceptions. A doll that has more joints than a stiffer one tends to be more desirable. Also, are the clothing and hair original? This matters a lot to the antique doll collector.
Check the face. Antique dolls with open mouths, teeth showing and sleep eyes that open and shut are more sought after than ones that only have a hand painted face.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, is condition. However great the doll you are looking at may be, if it is in poor condition the value will decrease greatly. Think of the doll as it would have been when newly made. This is the most desired
condition. Each imperfection from that point decreases the value. I often hear beginning collectors say, "Well, it's over 100 years old". That does not matter. There are still plenty of antique dolls on the market that are in very good condition which is what the serious collectors are looking for.

subset: commoncrawl


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By now sane Americans wouldn't believe Sarah Huckabee if she said the sky is blue. To lie shamelessly to massage Trump's swollen ego as your day job rates right up there with pimping child prostitutes. Huckabee is a blight discrediting America and her evangelical religion.
A none-too-bright bratty preteen bully is at the helm of the United States flanked by cowardly enablers enmeshed so deeply by their complicity in Trump's chaos that perhaps they see no way out. Empathy itself is being sacrificed from children's healthcare to the Dreamers' fate. And Sarah Huckabee is there to lie shamelessly every single day echoing Trump's cascading lies.
There's a difference though: Clearly Trump is unhinged, incapable of parsing the difference between lying and breathing. Sarah Huckabee wasn't born this way. Unlike Trump she's making a choice to enable a situation where no sane American – let alone a bemused foreign leader – can take literally or seriously ANYTHING this American president says.
An administration with no credibility can't lead. Any like Sarah Huckabee who still prop up this fiasco are traitors not just to America but to the concept of decency itself. As for religious faith think about this: Sarah Huckabee says Jesus died for her sins and, with the same mouth, says Trump didn't say "shithole" or pay off a porn star, or lie about his income taxes or…
Twelve months into the Trump presidency we effectively have no presidency at all. Trump's word has proved completely unreliable. His brain has proved completely unhinged. Trump's "political beliefs" are mere brat-child ego-driven whims. How can Congress achieve anything? And why would anyone moral lie for him?
Paul Ryan came up with a way to get Democrats to agree to a stopgap funding bill dangling the possibility of a long-term renewal of the Children's Health Insurance Program. Think about that! Ryan had to play Trump's blackmail game: We'll help kids get healthcare only if you play our game. Then Trump threw the children under the bus – not to mention the Republicans in Congress – and tweeted that "CHIP should be part of a long term solution" thus sabotaging kid's health care funding. And Sarah Huckabee went along.
At his hyped "summit" in the White House Trump said he'd sign any immigration bill Congress passed. "I'll take the heat," he boasted. And Sarah Huckabee went along and boasted the boast. So a bipartisan group came up with a deal and Trump rejected it launching into an unhinged rant about "shithole countries." Then Sarah Huckabee said he'd never changed his mind and besides Trump hadn't said a bad word either!
The rude, petulant man-child in the Oval Office is reeling ever more wildly out of control, and those like by Sarah Huckabee who cynically pretend otherwise are doing a grave disservice to the nation — and to themselves. And in Huckabee's case also doing a grave disservice to her much-vaunted evangelical religion.
Trump can't miss a chance to stick it to the poor, especially to poor children. He upset the Republican plan to avert a shutdown this weekend, saying he opposed extending a children's health program as part of a stopgap bill. And Sarah Huckabee, servant of Jesus, went along: No healthcare for poor kids! Just what Jesus would do, right?
Can Trump's GOP even govern? A funding lapse will mark the first time in U.S. history that there has been a government shutdown, when one party controls both Congress and the White House. We know one thing for certain: Sarah Huckabee will be working overtime if the shutdown happens on a way to lie again and again and again as she tries to blame anyone but Trump.
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Ahhh .. poor ( not so ) little Sarah Huckabee … allowing herself to become a Trump quisling ( to both her faith and her country ) sycophant .. and YES woman extraordinaire . Not only setting what pretends to be evangelical / fundamentalist christianity back to the dark ages … but any semblance of a woman's movement as well .. as she stands before us as the great whore of Trump .. figuratively speaking of course …. but then again … this is Trump .. and she is pretty desperate for attention … so .. who knows ?
So why ' poor ' ? Cause guaranteed when the __ finally does hit the fan … she'll be the first to go down … and even if she walked away tomorrow .. the fact is .. nobody will ever hire her for anything ever again .. well .. except …. nahhh … even the worlds oldest profession demands more dignity and honesty than ( not so ) little Sarah is capable of
Before Trump was elected and took over the office in January 2017, I have never actually hated a president and his senior staff members. I wasn't crazy about Bush 43 and his "dad's cabinet members V.P. Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice.. but not hate. Starting in January, with the fictitious inflated crowd size estimates of the inauguration by Sean Spice, who was the media/press spokesperson at the time. I'll never forget that night he tried to pass that bullshit crowd size numbers, even when there was photo proof and use of land marks and density of crowds to show how vastly more people were at the 2 Obama celebrations… but he didn't back down. Then Kelly Android Conway and her twisted "alternative truths", which becomes the anti-truth. Sarah Huckabee Sanders who proclaims to be the woman of Jesus… but goes out each day knowing she is spewing garbage to the press and American people? All these people are fucking aliens from the Sienfield "Bazzaro World". Never have I witnessed behavior like this, its a outrage.
Sarah Huckabee is indeed not too bright and has allowed herself to be sucked in to Trump's corruption. She is somebody who calls herself an Evangelical, but she is the part of the corrupt Evangelical wing that wants to destroy America and it's people… Just another Trump sycophant who will have a very nasty write up in history…


text: If you are looking for something tasty, nutritious and easy to make, then look no further! Green mung bean is high in protein, packed with vitamins and minerals, and an excellent non-meat source of iron! You can use either sprouted mung or unsprouted one – tastes great either way. Add it as sides […] Green Mung Usli (Stir fry)15 Nov, 2016 in Curry & Side dish / Lentils/Dal / Snacks, Street food & more tagged healthy / karnataka food / mung bean / quick meal / stir fry / vegan / vegetarian by Shilpa


text: Your patience has been rewarded! The summer edition of 'everythingACNBA' is now on our virtual newsstand! Some of the more interesting goings on at ACNBA from the past few months are there for your perusal. Just click on the icon below and read 'everythingACNBA' online or print yourself off a copy. You'll need legal-sized paper to get a full-sized copy of our newsletter. Enjoy!


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Have you ever gone along with adult friends or family members while they were shopping for a new vehicle? If so, you may have noticed that most car lots have both brand new and used cars on their lots.
Many times, when people buy a new car, they trade in their old one. Those trade-ins can then be resold to other people looking for a different vehicle. If a vehicle is too old, though, it might end up in a salvage yard, where it's used for parts or crushed and recycled for scrap metal.
You might have seen a junkyard with lots of old cars in it and already understood what happens to many old vehicles. But what about airplanes? What happens to aircraft when they get too old to fly or aren't needed any longer?
Both commercial airplanes and various military aircraft tend to have long life cycles, but they don't last forever. When it's time to retire them, they usually end up at one of several facilities known as aircraft graveyards or boneyards.
The world's largest aircraft boneyard is the 309th AMARG, which stands for Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group. The 309th AMARG, located at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, is a boneyard facility for military and government aircraft.
Airplanes, jets, and helicopters from the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, and Coast Guard — and even space shuttles from NASA — make up the nearly 4,400 aircraft on site. Some of the aircraft are stored for potential future use. Others are scrapped for usable parts and recyclable materials. Some fighter jets are even converted into aerial target drones.
When aircraft arrive on site, they are stripped of weapons, advanced electronics, and classified hardware. They are then washed thoroughly and sealed to protect them from the elements. Most aircraft boneyards are located in dry desert areas, because their arid climate and low humidity make them ideal places to preserve these large metal machines.
When aircraft reach the end of their usefulness for flying, the workers at aircraft boneyards will tackle the sometimes-daunting task of dismantling and recycling the aircraft. Have you ever thought about how complex airplanes are? A Boeing 747 contains over six million parts, 170 miles of wiring, and nearly 150,000 pounds of aluminum.
Workers must first dispose of any toxic, radioactive, or otherwise hazardous materials according to strict environmental regulations. Then valuable parts that can be refurbished for use in other airplanes are removed. Such parts might include flight controls, engines, doors, landing gear, recorders, etc.
Finally, the remaining valuable materials, such as aluminum, copper, steel, magnesium, and titanium, are removed for recycling. Experts estimate that about 85% or more of a typical airplane can be recycled successfully.


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edited in Questions and Answers
The release date for my game is coming up soon. In the time I'm not spending making new bugs, I've been emailing medium sized streamers that play stuff like my game. About zero of them have even replied to my emails.
Unrelated to those, via email I've received probably 100 "gimme key and our super cool site will review it" mails. Sort of like this one:
Does anyone have any lists (or some better strategy than "email writers on twitter") for contacts at bigger game review sites?
Unrelated to those, via email I've received probably 100 "gimme key and our super cool site will review it" mails. Sort of like this one:
Is it ever worth replying to any of these?Hello everyone,
My name is xxx. I represent the homepage xxx.com. Our team is in charge for writing game reviews, announcing news and everything about games.
We are offering you mutually advantageous cooperation. Our audience would be glad to see a game review for Vicious Attack Llama Apocalypse and we would be happy to write it for our audience.
The advertisement for your game is ensured. We need only the information we can use for writing our review.
I kindly ask you to provide us with a few key for our team. It allows us not only to play the game, learn all the best sides of it, but also to write a qualitative, objective view about your game which will be read by our audience.
We really hope that it will attract more new player into your game.
xxx and xxx Team.
Does anyone have any lists (or some better strategy than "email writers on twitter") for contacts at bigger game review sites?
This thread touched a bit on the topic.
I have one game on Steam since a few years ago and still receive these types of emails on a weekly basis, best thing to do is ignore them, they just want the keys to resell on the gray market. If you want to peruse some of them that look legit, get in contact with them directly on YouTube using the YouTube messenger system or go to the site and use the emails provided there. That's my approach currently.Thanked by 1roguecode
This was covered by a bunch of smart people in some mailing list I'm in. Here are a couple of their thoughts (mainly on content creators, but same logic applies):
From the Polybridge people:
From the Adult Swim marketing/events person:
I think these are pretty good guidelines when your keys are infinite like on Steam.
Even if you have the contacts, getting the attention of these sites is unlikely to impossible these days. They just have so much content. The usual advice is: personalise the email; avoid sending emails around big events; have a Gif + key in the email.Does anyone have any lists (or some better strategy than "email writers on twitter") for contacts at bigger game review sites?
But even with this advice, it's hard to get attention. I use 'Streak' to do emails, and even when people open the email, it's like 1% that writes about you or replies. The only reliable method I have seen for press is going to shows like PAX East and hustling press to play your game - they are way more likely to do it than over email. That's of course, really hard/expensive to do.
It's much easier once you have a personal relationship with the press, but you have to get there first. I'm working on a talk about this very subject at the moment, so hopefully it'll be useful!legitVsillegit.PNG1347 x 273 - 33K1000subs.PNG805 x 108 - 9KThanked by 6critic Elyaradine roguecode mattbenic Gnoblar_agency watman
This is funny because I come from the other side of this - being a legitimate journalist with a large body of work going back nearly 20 years that's largely offline (magazines) - so on the odd occasion when I request access to games I always feel like they're going to think I'm a scammer and it makes me very hesitant to make contact (internationally - I know the locals know me, at least).
I have a few thoughts here:
• A personal connection is always best but I realise that's incredibly hard when you're in South Africa and the journalists you want to target are all overseas. If you do manage to develop a relationship/someone legitimate shows interest, keep at it. We are inundated with requests and content and often the best intentions go unrealised. For me specifically games can only become a focus when I am being paid; the rest of the time, because I'm doing it for free for my own web site, it becomes an "as and when". Consequently I have things on the pile that I've desperately wanted to do but have had no time to devote to it. (In fact, more than one @Bensonance related item, as an example -- I'm sorry!) However keep at it - that relationship is very important and at some point when something relevant comes up you/your game will pop into those people's heads. (ie they may not have time to review it but at some point they might need to do an emergency "Things You Should Check Out On Steam/Xbox" listicle or something equally silly and they're going to go with what's on their radar. This is one thing I've never been able to get local PR people to understand - you need to keep me informed at all times (YOU don't get to decide what's relevant for me; I decide that) - because in an emergency I always go with what I have on hand. I can't tell you the opportunities some PR people representing big brands have missed (in magazines with massive readership, too) because they deem me "unworthy" because I haven't done something when they want it... but I digress - the point is: keep the relationship alive.)
• I recall Team Laserbeam being very excited about a couple of great YouTubers who had featured their games. Target those people, even if they're small. The small content creators really need all the help they can get now since YouTube has decided to destroy all the little people. Having someone small put your name in the title of the video (ie picked up by search engines including Google and DuckDuckGo) is better than having no one do anything. You already have a problem because no one knows how to spell "vicious" so you have to get "llama apocalypse" out there and ranking any way you can. Actually I'm not sure people know how to spell "llama" or "apocalypse" either... :)
• If you cannot get the attention of the big players you're going to have to start with small people and hope it percolates upwards. The advice above is really good. Check out the people - if they seem like legit journalists/reviewers/web sites/YouTubers, give them a key. If you want to dive deeper see when the site URL was registered and look at its ranking on Alexa (although that doesn't work well for my site because we are, sadly, low traffic; I've seen the same with other good sites as well because, like you, we can't get eyeballs either); with YouTube, look at the intention and effort put into what has already been posted on the channel (pick decent human beings who are trying hard, in other words). Most journalists (bar the "biggest") don't think for a moment that their work carries any weight any more and in many cases if they're requesting access you're actually doing them a favour by giving it to them - you'll probably be able to sense that in the tone of the message; those are legit people. The example you posted above seems dodgy to me - certainly the request for more than one key and the mention of "mutually advantageous cooperation" - but it depends on what you want: as much wide exposure as possible or quality exposure. Each has pros and cons.
Thanked by 3Elyaradine Bensonance roguecode
@roguecode: I would stay clear of those guys, I suspect it is because I gave keys to a couple of those guys that Riders of Asgard was hacked so quickly after release.
Instead what I do it direct those guys to this site: https://account.keymailer.co/
In my email, I tell them to sign up there and then send create a key request for the game and send me the username that they signed up with. Keymailer is primarily directed at streamers and video reviewers ... so you still need to decide if you want to give keys for other websites ... but I have found that Keymailer tends to weed out the serious people from the not so serious (i.e. key re-sellers or game stealers).
A lot of these guys who want keys, will take those keys and re-sell them on some or other site, so I prefer not to give them keys if I can help.
p.s. This has been my experience and not necessarily what other people might experience.
@critic @Bensonance @watman @quintond Thank you so much for the advice, it was/is super helpful. And nice to get a bunch of different perspectives on it. <3Thanked by 3quintond critic Bensonance


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Just have to document this moment... I am writing this post from our brand new computer. Booya! It's beautiful. And I love it.
Now... to find a desk for it's home and clean out the extra bedroom. While I have a million things I wanted to blog about today, I can't remember any of them. So, if you want to find me over the next few days, I'll be yard sale-ing. Pictures to come soon. Hopefully.
Off to watch Duck Dynasty with the hubs.
See ya'll later.


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Perth-based God Has Spoken will return to racing in Melbourne for the first time in almost two years when he contests the Listed Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m) at Caulfield this Saturday.
God Has Spoken raced inconsistently during the 2013 Perth Summer Racing Carnival, but returned to his best form when he stormed home late to finish second behind Black Tycoon in the Group 2 Perth Cup (2400m) at Ascot on New Year's Day.
Trainer Neville Parnham told Racing Ahead this morning that the Listed Mornington Cup (2400m) on February 12 is the major autumn goal for God Has Spoken, but he expects the Blackfriars entire to perform well this weekend.
"He hasn't started since the Perth Cup, he was narrowly beaten in that, and it was a bit of a return to form for him," Parnham said.
"He had been racing quiet well in the Railway and the couple of races that led it to that, but he just sort of dropped off a fraction at his next couple of runs.
"He bounced back and that was the forerunner for me to give him a go over here in the Mornington Cup.
"That is his plan; it is just a matter of getting him through Saturday's run.
"He is going in off a few weeks break and he will probably benefit from the run on Saturday, but he should run a cheeky race."
God Has Spoken was ridden close to the pace when he failed to fire in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic (1800m) and Group 2 Cox Stakes (2100m), but was settled at the tail of the field in the Perth Cup.
Parnham said that God Has Spoken has always shown the ability to win from the back of the field, but is hopeful that son Steven Parnham will settle the seven-year-old a bit closer to the speed in the Mornington Cup Prelude on Saturday.
"That was how he was always ridden as a younger horse, he didn't have a lot of speed, and he got back off the pace and used to storm home," Parnham said.
"That was his normal pattern off racing, but over the last couple of years he has shown more pace in the distance races and he has been able to posy up in a more forward position.
"It suited him, but we draw an awkward gate the other day and we decided that he should be ridden a bit quiet.
"Saturday he should posy up in the first six or seven and he should box away from there."
God Has Spoken is yet to finish in the placings in six previous starts in Victoria; with his fourth place finish behind Ginga Dude in the First Light Racing Handicap (1600m) at Moonee Valley during the 2011 Spring Racing Carnival.


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Kettering Museum is a lovely little town museum in a rambling building with all sorts of little rooms. We had three upstairs to put up our displays. As you can see from above with our recent recognition from the Guild of Battlefield Guides we have quite a good display of awards on our table, amongst the weapons and armour.
We have some cross over membership with Harrington's which makes it easier for us to put on these type of events. Here's the room with the Harrington's armour and their fletching display.
They also did a short presentation about putting on armour. This is Corin, one of our committee members, rigged out in all his finery with his Bec-de-Corbin. We had about 15-20 people in the room for this, I think. It was a bit cramped.
Phil had his model in the middle room, along with a little table for our Northampton book. The model is always a good talking point.
I was in the "paper toys" room, which houses the museum's collection of cut-out toys and dolls. A little bit more genteel than my usual settings for running the game.
As it's an old buildings rooms are slightly odd shapes, and the need to ensure wheelchair/disabled access means you can't use all the space as efficiently as you might like.
A few old friends turned up to play the game and buy a copy. The man with the nice jumper is Jerry from Sheffield. He was one of the big fans of the original game when we first put it out at shows and wanted to buy one. He bought two, - one to cut out and one to keep. He also wanted it autographing. I should have given him a discount.
The man playing the game is Graham Hockley, of "Ad Hoc Games" who often does really good participation games at the likes of Salute, with our mutual friend Chris, who is taking pictures in the background. He is playing two of his children. I'm pleased to say he gave them a damn good thrashing.
The daughter of my Heraldic Adviser, Graham Fordham, has been a wargamer from the cradle and plays DBA very well I'm told. She took me on with her friend, and squeezed out a narrow Yorkist win. She wasn't helped by her friend refusing to attack with the cavalry because she didn't want to "hurt the horses".
We had a steady stream of people through and I ran the game about 10 times, mostly with children aged 10 or less. Although all were well behaved and attentive I can tell you that's hard work and hard on the voice. Still, hopefully they enjoyed themselves and learnt something.
We sold 8 copies of the game which on reflection is okay. 5 of them were bought by friends who would have bought anyway, I think, so that's three we wouldn't otherwise have got.
And one purchaser joined the Society as well, to get the discount on the cover price.
So I think I'd have to say a day well spent.
PS I took sometime later on to set up the game on BoardGameGeek. As I write it is awaiting approval by the moderators. As I was doing it I also found out that some of my SOA games and free rules have also ended up on there, although I'm there under two variants of my actual name. I've dropped them a line to see if the can merge them.


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GrrCON Cyber Security Summit & Hacker Conference
October 22 & 23, 2020 | DeVos Place – Grand Rapids, MIGrrCON is an information security and hacking conference that provides the Midwest InfoSec community with a fun atmosphere to come together and engage with like minded people. We keep GrrCON small with around 2,000 attendance to allow us to provide those things other events leave out. Whether you are a Fortune 500 executive, security researcher, industry professional, student, or a hacker of "flexible" morals you will find something for you at GrrCON.
Keynote Speakers
Chris Roberts & Eddie the YetiThursday Keynote
Kevin JohnsonFriday Keynote
Where?DeVos Place® is a premier convention center located in downtown Grand Rapids, located 15 minutes from Gerald Ford International Airport and easily accessible from all major interstates.
DeVos Place303 Monroe Ave. NW – Grand Rapids, MI 49503


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Treat gynecological conditions, supporting all stages of pregnancy,
both male and female fertility issues
Balance Point Acupuncture specializing in natural care for infertility, pregnancy, and women's health. We use an integrated approach incorporates research-based treatment with traditional Chinese therapies including acupuncture, herbal treatment, diet, and other natural therapies. For centuries, acupuncture has been used successfully treat a number of gynecological conditions, restore fertility and maintain health during pregnancy.
Acupuncture is frequently used for couples with fertility concerns involving conditions such as:
• Endometriosis
• Luteal phase defect
• Low ovarian reserve
• Hormone imbalance
• Ovulation disorders
• Recurrent miscarriage
• Male reproductive disorders
Research has also proven acupuncture can increase the chance of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) by 30 to 50% and be beneficial in preparation for, and during embryo transfer, helping relax the uterus.


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It's an interesting time to be caught in the crossfire of two markets that have similar interests. Whether a photographer making the move into video or a videographer looking for an affordable, all-in-one video and photo solution, the time has never been better to invest in an HD DSLR. The latest photo/video hybrid entries of the Canon EOS 60D, the Nikon D7000, the Olympus E-5 and the Sony Alpha a55V and a33 cameras have made HD in video-capable DSLRs all the more enticing. Continuous phase-detect autofocus, articulating LCD screens and manual audio level control, oh, my!
Myth: Photo Killed The Video Star
As camera companies and photographers learn video, slowly but surely, the often discussed disadvantages of DSLRs as a filmmaking choice are disappearing. And as these features and more are added to new cameras, the likelihood that they will show up in full-frame and pro-level cameras seems ensured. Come up with some continuous-light on-camera flashes, and we may just have something here.
Ironically, this is at the same time that dedicated video camcorders are absorbing the advantages of DSLR construction, like the APS-C-sized Sony NEX-VG10 and the Micro Four Thirds Panasonic AG-AF100 camcorders. Both include compatibility with interchangeable lenses and a DSLR-sized sensor, and compared to professional video camcorder systems, they're both relatively affordable. After these announcements, esteemed optics manufacturer Carl Zeiss announced that, in addition to its Canon EF-, Nikon F- and PL-mount lenses, its CP.2 interchangeable-mount compact cine lenses for filmmakers will be available for the Micro Four Thirds and Sony Alpha systems, as well. These are still lenses that also feature cinema-style housings, oversized barrels and a nearly 360-degree rotation for better follow focus, which is so important in motion pictures, and which so few lenses developed for still photography have.
One of the clear advantages to HD DSLRs is the incredibly shallow depth of field that a large sensor and quality glass like these Zeiss lenses can provide. It's also an easy thing to lose, and it can make or break your video, probably much more than photographers who are used to having numerous chances to nail that perfect still may think. Because for video, there's a lot that can make or break your project, and you need more than just a good picture. Video requires a whole new skill set to learn, and though manufacturers may be gradually fixing the inherent problems of shooting videos with a DSLR, there's still a long way to go. Monitoring of motion video is difficult, even on the largest 3.0-inch screens. The 8-bit H.264/MPEG-4 codecs used in HD DSLRs are paper-thin when compared with more robust offerings from professional camcorder systems, especially when some companies like RED include RAW video files that can be tweaked extensively in post, much like a RAW still can. Even with the manual abilities of the latest cameras, pro-level sound is severely lacking.
These products are indicative of the sea change that's happening in both industries to provide singular solutions for two different markets, even if many of the companies have an interest in both video and still photography. It's not clear which side will win the video market, if any, but it's clear that either way, photographers and video makers will reap the benefits.


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Manufacturer: Akrapovic
Part Number: P-MCCL15
This part is produced or supplied only on demand, and until it is not ordered we can't know how long it takes to arrive. Once we receive an order we contact the producer or the supplier asking for ETA.
Questions about this product? Send Your Question
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Akrapovic Exhaust Muffler Clamp.
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map of asia minor
Map of Asia Minor
Map showing the regions of Ancient Asia Minor
When we talk about Asia Minor, geographically, we refer to the land mass
Map of Mediterranean Sea showing Greece, Asia Minor and
Map of the 7 churches of Asia Minor
Map of Asia Minor (modern Turkey) During Roman Times.
Map of Asia Minor showing cities and areas - 15640 Bytes
Asia Minor - Map Locator
Historical map of the Growth of Roman Power in Asia Minor.
View LocationView Map. click for. Fullsize Asia Minor map
The following map is a close up portion of the above map, centered on Asia
You can click on the region names on map to go to related section
Map Dodecanese Islands and Western Asia Minor
Map of Greece and Asia Minor
the country is a rugged peninsula long known as Anatolia or Asia Minor.
Old map by Cellarius, Ch. - Asia Minor. Click anywhere on the image to view
while the Asian part is called Anatolia or ( Asia Minor ) (Click for Map
A MAP OF MODERN TURKEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS: Areas circled in blue are of
The Seven Churches of Asia Minor
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Addiction, Medical Marijuana
The researchers used Epidiolex, the first FDA-approved cannabis-based medication, as their source of CBD.With many CBD products on the market now the exact concentration of CBD is uknown. In addition, they may have additives such as pesticides and even lead. But, Hurd said, with Epidiolex the exact concentration and other ingredients in the drug is known, which was key. "We are developing a medicine. We are not developing a recreational cannabis," she said.Participants reported very few bad reactions, such as mild diarrhea, headache and tiredness.These findings are similar to those of a pilot study Hurd ran, but she says the next step is to do a longer-term study, following subjects for up to six months.The study's potential was not lost on others."This is an extremely significant paper. We need to utilize every possible treatment in helping people with chronic pain to find other ways to manage their symptoms and in people with opiate addiction to find relief," said Dr. Julie Holland, a psychiatrist in New York and former assistant professor of psychiatry at the New York University School of Medicine.


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25 June 2011
We've Got It Covered #56
It's Saturday which means that it's time for me to ramble some pish then make up for it by sharing a cover version with you all. So as I sit here writing this post, Erin is currently doing her level best to trash our living room, that's what my wife gets for leaving me in charge I guess. Once I have tidied up all of the carnage the plan of action today is to head over to Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum as the awesome RM Hubbert and a few other artists are playing a free gig their this afternoon. It's been ages since I have seen Hubby, so I am really looking forward to it. It's also pretty exciting in that it's a family friend event so at 10 months old Erin will be going to her first ever 'gig', not that she'll ever remember it though. I think tonight will be a bit of a quiet one as I need to keep my head down after the past few weeks of craziness. If I was going out I'd be heading along to Nice 'n Sleazys for the Strike The Colours album fundraiser which also features Sparrow and the Workshop and Craig B from The Unwinding Hours. It's only £6 and you'd be doing your bit to ensure that we get another Strike The Colours album.
I know I have just said that I am going to be keeping my head down this weekend, technically I am as I am not going out drinking, but that doesn't mean I have stay in. Tomorrow I am planning on heading over to Oran Mor for 'The Big BBQ show' for a few hours to catch a bit of Washington Irving and PAWS. You can find out more details on the gig and the running order over on Ayetunes, personally I am most looking for to having some of the pig on a spit. Anyway, I think that's enough of me for one week, I better get this place tidied up before my wife gets home, so here's this weeks cover version which comes from former Beta Band frontman, Steve Mason and his take on Madonna's 'Borderline'. Which I ripped from a session that he did for Radio 2 back in May of last year.
Steve Mason-Borderline (Madonna cover)
Posted by peenko at Saturday, June 25, 2011
Labels: Madonna, Steve Mason, we've got it covered
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Enhanced users feature in Azure Mobile Services
In the last post I talked about the ability to get an access token with more permissions to talk to the authentication provider API, so we made it that feature more powerful. Last week we released a new update to the mobile services that makes some of that easier. With the new (preview) enhanced users feature, expanded data about the logged in user to the mobile service is available directly at the service itself (via a call to user.getIdentities), so there's no more need to talk to the authentication provider APIs to retrieve additional data from the user. Let's see how we can do that.
To opt-in to this preview feature, you'll need the Command-Line Interface. If you haven't used it before, I recommend checking out its installation and usage tutorial to get acquainted with its basic commands. Once you have it installed, and the publishing profile for your subscription properly imported, we can start with that. For this blog post, I created a new mobile service called 'blog20131216', and as a newly created service, it doesn't have any of the preview features enabled, which we can see with the 'azure mobile preview list' command, which lists the new feature we have:
C:\temp>azure mobile preview list blog20131216
info: Executing command mobile preview list
+ Getting preview features
data: Preview feature Enabled
data: --------------- -------
data: SourceControl No
data: Users No
info: You can enable preview features using the 'azure mobile preview enable' command.
info: mobile preview list command OK
A sample app
Let's see how the feature behaves before we turn the feature on. As usual, I'll create a simple app which will demonstrate how this works, and I'll post it to my blogsamples repository on GitHub, under AzureMobileServices/UsersFeature. This is an all in which we can log in to certain providers, and call a custom API or a table script. Here's the app:
The API implementation does nothing but return the result of the call to user.getIdentities in its response.
- exports.get = function (request, response) {
- request.user.getIdentities({
- success: function (identities) {
- response.send(statusCodes.OK, identities);
- }
- });
- };
And the table script will do the same (bypassing the database):
- function read(query, user, request) {
- user.getIdentities({
- success: function (identities) {
- request.respond(200, identities);
- }
- });
- }
Now, if we run the app, login with all providers and call the API and table scripts, we get what we currently receive when calling the getIdentities method:
Logged in as Facebook: <my-fb-id>
API result: {
"facebook": {
"userId": "Facebook: <my-fb-id> ",
"accessToken": " <the long access token> "
Logged out
Logged in as Google: <my-google-id>
Table script result: {
"google": {
"userId": "Google: <my-google-id> ",
"accessToken": " <the access token> "
Logged out
Logged in as MicrosoftAccount: <my-microsoft-id>
API result: {
"microsoft": {
"userId": "MicrosoftAccount: <my-microsoft-id> ",
"accessToken": " <the very long access token> "
So for all existing services nothing really changes.
Enabling the users feature
Now let's see what starts happening if we enable that new preview feature.
Caution: just like the source control preview feature, the users feature cannot be disabled once turned on. I'd strongly suggest you to try the feature in a test mobile service prior to enabling it in a service being used by an actual mobile application.
In the Command-Line interface, let's enable the users feature:
C:\temp>azure mobile preview enable blog20131216 Users
info: Executing command mobile preview enable
+ Enabling preview feature for mobile service
info: Result of enabling feature:
info: Successfully enabled Users feature for Mobile Service 'blog20131216'
info: mobile preview enable command OK
And just like that (after a few seconds), the feature is enabled:
C:\temp>azure mobile preview list blog20131216
info: Executing command mobile preview list
+ Getting preview features
data: Preview feature Enabled
data: --------------- -------------
data: Users Yes
data: SourceControl No
info: You can enable preview features using the 'azure mobile preview enable' command.
info: mobile preview list command OK
Time now to run the same test as before. And the result is a lot more interesting. For Facebook:
Logged in as Facebook: <my-fb-id>
API result: {
"facebook": {
"id": " <my-fb-id> ",
"username": " <my-facebook-username> ",
"name": "Carlos Figueira",
"gender": "male",
"first_name": "Carlos",
"last_name": "Figueira",
"link": https://www.facebook.com/ <my-facebook-username> ,
"locale": "en_US",
"accessToken": " <the-long-access-token> ",
"userId": "Facebook: <my-fb-id> "
And Google:
Logged in as Google: <my-google-id>
Table script result: {
"google": {
"family_name": "Figueira",
"given_name": "Carlos",
"locale": "en",
"name": "Carlos Figueira",
"picture": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ <some-path>/<some-other-path>/<yet-another-path>/<and-one-more-path> /photo.jpg",
"sub": " <my-google-id>",
"accessToken": " <the-access-token> ",
"userId": "Google: <my-google-id> "
And Microsoft:
Logged in as MicrosoftAccount: <my-microsoft-id>
API result: {
"microsoft": {
"id": " <my-microsoft-id> ",
"name": "Carlos Figueira",
"first_name": "Carlos",
"last_name": "Figueira",
"link": "https://profile.live.com/",
"gender": null,
"locale": "en_US",
"accessToken": " <the very long access token> "
"userId": "MicrosoftAccount: <my-microsoft-id> "
So that's basically what we get now "for free" with this new feature… One more thing – I didn't include Twitter in the example, but it works just as well as the other providers: you'll get information such as the screen name in the user identities.
User.getIdentities change
One thing I only showed but didn't really talk about: the call to user.getIdentities is different than how it was previously used. It's a change required to support the new functionality, and the synchronous version may eventually be deprecated. In order to give you more information about the users, we're now storing that information in a database table, and retrieving that data is something we cannot do synchronously. What we need to change in the scripts then is to pass a callback function to the users.getIdentities call, and when that data is retrieved the success callback will be invoked. Changing the code to comply with the new mode is fairly straightforward, as the code below shows. Here's the "before" code:
- exports.get = function (request, response) {
- var identities = request.user.getIdentities();
- // Do something with identities, send response
- }
And with the change we just need to move the remaining of the code to a callback function:
- exports.get = function (request, response) {
- request.user.getIdentities({
- success: function (identities) {
- // Do something with identities, send response
- }
- });
- }
The synchronous version of user.getIdentities will continue working in mobile services where the users feature is not enabled (since we can't break existing services), but I strongly recommend changing your scripts to use the asynchronous version to be prepared for future changes.
Wrapping up
As I mentioned this is a preview feature, which means it's something we intend on promoting to "GA" (general availability) level, but we'd like to get some early feedback so we can better align it with what the customers want. Feel free to give us feedback about this feature and what we can do to improve it.


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- Department Overview
- Computer Science Programs
- Student Opportunities
- Faculty and Staff
- News and Events
- Research
- Alumni
Computer Science Golden Jubilee
Homecoming Celebration
Pre-Homecoming – Golden Jubilee Specific
Alumni and students are invited to compete to design web-based and mobile apps that benefit humanity. Team prizes are: $1000 for 1st place, $600 for 2nd place, $400 for 3rd place. Key dates include:
More information, including inspiring examples and hackathon rules, can be found at the Hackathon for Humanity website. Links to recordings of the live stream will also be made available on the website.
Homecoming – Golden Jubilee Specific
Dr. Arlan DeKock Recognition Dinner
Join us to honor Dr. Arlan DeKock for 38 years of service to Missouri S&T. Arlan served the university as a professor of Computer Science, as the chair of the Department of Computer Science and was founding dean of the School of Management and Information Systems."
Computer Science Building Tour & Facility Discussion
Alumni are especially invited to view the computer artifacts that we have been collecting, to tour the Computer Science Building, and to engage with members of the Academy of Computer Science regarding the facilities. The CS Academy is an elected group of alumni who provide strategic advice to the Computer Science department.
Speaker Series Keynote, Tan Le, "The Future is Closer Than You Think"
Cost: FREE, however tickets are required for entry. Alumni should register now for this and other Homecoming events. 100 tickets are currently allocated for alumni registration. Additional tickets will be made available to Missouri S&T students, faculty, staff, and the Rolla community starting October 14. Total seating capacity: 600.
Tan Le is Founder & CEO of Emotiv Lifesciences, a bioinformatics company advancing our understanding of the human brain and early identification of biomarkers for mental and other neurological conditions using electroencephalography (EEG). She is a technology innovator, entrepreneur, business executive and sought-after speaker.
Hackathon for Humanity Projects Video
Homecoming – General Homecoming Activities with a Computer Science Presence
Alumni Association Miner Legends Lunch
Friday, October 23, 12-1:30 pm
Each year the Miner Alumni Organization honors alumni and faculty who have made a special contribution to the university. The Academy of Computer Science members will attend this lunch. Last year, CS Academy member, Daniel Reed, was presented with a Miner Legends award. Register now for this and other Homecoming events.
Silver and Gold Gathering
Friday, October 23, 5 - 8 p.m. Hasselmann House
Annual mixer for all alumni, being held for the first time this year, in Hasselmann House, the brand new home of Miner Alumni. Reception and buffet dinner. A slide show of Computer Science history at Missouri S&T will be on display in the Kinyon-Koeppler Grand Hall. Register now for this and other Homecoming events.
Homecoming – Other Featured Homecoming Activities
Kummer Student Design Center Open House
1051 N. Bishop Ave., 10 am – 1 pm
Drop in, meet the director and tour the facility.
Tailgate Party
Saturday, October 24, 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. Gale Bullman parking lot
Authentic tailgate party with hot dogs and hamburgers, $1 beer, and other tailgate goodies. The university will begin accepting reservations for this event in the fall; event is free (except for the beer) to those who register by a given date. Tickets may also be purchased at the door. Register now for this and other Homecoming events.
Miner Alumni Social
Saturday, October 24, 6-8 p.m. Public House Brewing Company, Rolla
Wrap up your homecoming weekend with a pint and some down-time with fellow alumni. There will be complimentary Alex's pizza or you can order from the menu (charges will apply). Come and go as you please. Register now for this and other Homecoming events.


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- Brandy Melville Studded High Wasted Shorts | I've been dying for a pair of high wasted shorts. In fact, I've just about been craving everything Brandy Melville, it's awful to have discovered this brand so early in the challenge! I love these light washed jeans and the simple but awesome beaded stud detail on the side. UGH, I'm probably craving this the most!
- LUSH You Snap The Whip Body Butter | A lovely sales associate put a sample of this in my last purchase so I'm every grateful to her! I've run out of body butters and I miss how amazing they make my legs feel!
- M.A.C. Chatterbox Lipstick | I have been lusting over this lipstick for a very long time. Most of the time it's out of stock so I can never swatch it or have a chance to buy it anyway!
- M.A.C. Aquadisiac Shadow | This is the most loveliest of blues and all the swatches are making me cry over how much I want it! I'd love it for just a wash of blue on my eye for a sheer pop of color! So gorgeous!
Friday, August 3, 2012
No Buy Challenge | Weekly Wishlist #01
6 comments:
Oh gosh, doing wishlists just seems like a huge tempation to buy more things lol! Good luck with your challenge.. I feel like I should do it but I don't think I could!ReplyDelete
The lipstick looks lovely! xxReplyDelete
I don't think I've ever seen this body butter? Damn you Lush USA! Stop bringing out things that we don't get. All look like good wishes :) xReplyDelete
Ahh goodluck!ReplyDelete
I like the lipstick! I'm really impressed that you're doing this challenge.ReplyDelete
I have the aquadisiac shadow, it's really lovely. When you finish your challenge, you should get it! <3ReplyDelete
Thank you so much for taking the time to comment! I do read and respond to most comments when I can, but please refrain from spam (follow for follows, giveaways, ads, so and so forth) xx :)


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If you register a custom domain through GoDaddy, you can transfer this domain to Pagevamp.
1. Go to www.godaddy.com
2. Click Sign in and log in to your account
3. Click "Domains" to show your domains.
4. Manage the Domain you want connected to your Pagevamp website.
5. Click on "DNS Zone File" to change A records
6. Click Edit Record and change the A record to 184.108.40.206
7. Scroll down to make sure 'www' points to '@'. And don't forget to save!
8. In the Page Editor for the website that you want to link:
A) Go to Settings.
B) Click the Custom URL button.
C) Enter the URL in the box under Connect your Domain and then click Link.


text:
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Billy The Artist
Open Eyes
"My bottle's name follows my artistic philosophy. Don't just look forward, but keep your eyes open and see what opportunities are around you. It's as simple as black and white. DEW is all about being free; enjoying the exciting things that life can give you, and keeping your eyes open."
Billy The Artist (New York, NY)
Billy the Artist lives by his mantra of "create your own reality." Capturing the energy of the city around him, Billy's created his own style called "urban primitive," a kaleidoscope of puzzle-like images that captured DEW's attention immediately. Billy has participated in everything from Art Basel Miami and art openings around the country to creating art for everyone from Suzuki to the Woodstock '99 Festival. BILLYARTNYC.COM


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Ron Perlman is to star in a new online drama from Amazon Studios.
The Sons of Anarchy star will lead the pilot Hand of God - directed by World War Z filmmaker Marc Forster, according to Deadline.
Forster's small-screen directing debut will star Perlman as Judge Harris Pernell, a corrupt and ruthless man who has a religious experience.
Suffering visions and hearing voices through his comatose son, Pernell begins to believe that God is speaking to him in the pilot penned by Burn Notice veteran Ben Watkins.
Filming on Hand of God is expected to commence in March, with Forster and Perlman also executive producing.
Amazon Studios is also collaborating with Drive's Nicolas Winding Refn on a new Barbarella pilot.
Sons of Anarchy makes Drea de Matteo series regular for final season


text:
Category: Job Requests » Hotel
Looking for the job in Sharm
07/02/2019 19:23
Hello! I am looking for a job in summertime from June till August. I have worked in retail/sales as shop assistant, seller and consultant. I can work as a waitress, receptionist or in the mall. I am open to other options. I learn new things fast and am not scared of new challenges. Also interested working in animation team, but would need some training. I can speak three languages russian, estonian and english. I am very active, positive, hardworking and get along with people very well.Monika
This Ad has been viewed 211 times and got 2 replies.


text:
© Wings – Image created by Ross Cochrane
Matthew 18:10 – CALLING ALL ANGELS
He contends with constant pressure from the local neighbours to renounce his Christian faith. Yesterday he was threatened by a group of young Muslims who told him he will "regret it" if he does not forsake his belief in Christ.
"I might be expelled from my village. I could be beaten, but Jesus went through it all. If my Lord faced persecution, who am I not to expect the same treatment?" Muhammed is willing to die for his newfound beliefs. (Name changed)
To be a follower of Christ in North Korea, Iraq, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Iran, Libya and Yemen and many other countries in the world today is dangerous. Christians are abducted, arrested, enslaved, isolated, beaten, tortured, raped and murdered (Open doors).
Jesus is direct to all of us concerning new followers of Christ. "Beware that you don't look down on (or despise) any of these little ones. For I tell you that in heaven their angels are always in the presence of my Heavenly Father" (Matthew 18:10 NLT).
Jesus: "Take care of my child."
Angel: "But he is not a child, Lord. He has wrinkles around his eyes and he walks slowly. He has a body that is dying, like all humankind. And his human spirit … Oh, I see what you mean! He IS a child."
Many people look at Matthew 18:10 and think it is talking about looking down on or despising little children. It is not. I have no doubt that children who have not reached an age of accountability also have angels watching over them, but in the context of Matthew 18, it is clear that this verse is about those who become like little children and who have believed and trusted in Christ.
Jesus: "Yes, he is My child. His spirit has awakened and he has received new birth, and we have all welcomed him into My family. I am assigning you to watch over him and care for his spiritual growth. His neighbours will not be as welcoming."
"We understand Lord. He has responded to You with a childlike faith as a new follower. Don't his neighbours realise that if they welcome him, they are welcoming You?"
"No, not yet. They don't realise that demeaning him and looking down on him is like demeaning and looking down on God Himself. Their consciences have been seared and scar tissue has formed over their hearts" (1 Timothy 4:2). The angels looked horrified. It was incredulous to them that anyone would choose to do this.
Hebrews 1:14 (NLT) makes an amazing statement. "Therefore, angels are only servants—spirits sent to care for people who will inherit salvation."
Angel: "If someone looks down on and despises this new follower of Yours who has become humbly obedient to Your message, Lord, we will destroy them with the sword of justice!" The angels looked serious but a little unsure.
Jesus: "No. He will be despised and demeaned during his time on earth but he will have an opportunity to be my witness to his persecutors and others will respond to My message. He has My favour and love. You are to guard what is happening to his human spirit. Leave his human will intact and provide opportunities for him to grow as my follower. Use everything he goes through to make him stronger in his faith."
Angel: "We will care for him, Lord, throughout his life, and witness what it is that You want to do through him."
In Matthew 18:10, Jesus is saying in effect that God doesn't look down on or despise new followers of Christ. He invites us strongly to respond to what He is saying. This has implications for those who would persecute, despise or demean those who respond to others who respond to the message of Christ.
Jesus makes it clear that to cause a new follower of Christ to stumble in their faith and lead them to sin by tempting them or despising them is to go against God Himself. Yet He leaves a way open for even the vilest of persecutors to repent and to follow Him.
The Bible indicates that if you have responded to Christ's invitation and have been humbly obedient in trusting Him, you will be in the presence of God also one day, "… Absent from the body and present with the Lord" (2 Corinthians 5:8 KJV). You are valued by God. You will one day have free access into His presence and who knows, perhaps meet personally the angelic beings who have guarded your journey.
Pastor Ross


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Israeli Attorney General: Netanyahu Investigation 'Conducted by the Book'
Mendelblit, who will decide whether to accept the police recommendation to indict Netanyahu, denies reports of conflict between the police and his office
Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit, who will be faced with the decision whether or not to accept the police recommendation to indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of bribery and corruption, expressed support on Thursday for the police investigators in the case. He also pledged to make a decision on indicting the prime minister "without unnecessary delay."
To really understand Israeli politics and the Netanyahu cases - subscribe to Haaretz
The investigation, he said "was conducted by the book, with professionalism, creativity and constantly seeking to discover the truth." Speaking at Tel Aviv University, the attorney general denied reports of friction between the police on one hand and the staff of his office and the prosecutor's office on the other.
"We ignore the background noise. There were various opinions and always have been, including various parties within the prosecution. I suggest addressing the reports of friction between the agencies and inside them with a great deal of skepticism."
The remarks at Tel Aviv University were Mendelblit's first since the police released their recommendations on Tuesday. "The release of the recommendations in the cases against Netanyahu was done with my approval and the approval of the state prosecutor [Shai Nitzan] as is accepted [practice]," the attorney general said. "All of the parties involved in the investigation have worked and are working as trustees of the rule of law," he added.
Mendelblit, a former cabinet secretary to Netanyahu, was asked whether in light of the fact that the two are well acquainted with one another, it would be difficult to inform the prime minister that an indictment will be filed against him.
The attorney general suggested that they were not in fact close friends, noting that he had never visited the Netanyahu's private residence in Caesarea and had only visited the prime minister's official residence in Jerusalem a number of times in an official capacity. Mendelblit said he had accepted the position of cabinet secretary "on the condition that I not be like prior cabinet secretaries, but only professional. Politics doesn't interest me."
- Netanyahu: I Will Continue to Serve Israel Out of Confidence That the Truth Will Prevail
- Netanyahu Has to Leave
- Netanyahu, Take Your Own Advice and Go Home
"Of course it would be difficult for me to file [an indictment] against any prime minister. That's not an easy thing. I seek the truth. If that will be the evidence and that's the decision, I won't have a problem."
In comments on the regular protests outside his house by demonstrators protesting government corruption and initially also about what was seen as Mendelblit's foot-dragging in investigations against Netanyahu, the attorney general said: "The demonstrations haven't influenced me by a millimeter. Nothing. Zero. The test is professional. There is no chance that something like this would influence me. We don't work like that." Demonstrations need to be conducted according to rules set down by the Supreme Court, he said, but "I absolutely support the right of people to demonstrate, even against me."
The Israel Television News Company reported on Wednesday that senior officials in the state prosecutor's office have been highly critical of police conduct regarding the recommendations in the investigations against Netanyahu, saying that not all of the assertions in the recommendation are backed by evidence. Reporter Guy Peleg said prosecution staff believe the police also tried to create the impression that Mendelblit held up the release of the recommendations. The police, they reportedly believe, put the attorney general in an "impossible situation" if he retreats at all from what the police recommended. According to the television news report, prosecution staff also believe that additional investigative work will have to be carried out before a decision on an indictment is made.
One of the two police investigations, dubbed Case 1000, involves suspicions that Netanyahu accepted lavish gifts from wealthy benefactors in return for advancing their interests. The second, Case 2000, is a probe into allegations that the prime minister tried to strike a deal that would have provided him with positive coverage in Israel's second largest newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, in exchange for hurting its free rival, Israel Hayom.
Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing, saying that there is nothing improper about accepting gifts from friends. With regard to discussions with the publisher of Yedioth Ahronoth, Arnon Mozes, the prime minister said he never intended to follow through on the discussions.


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e-mail: email@example.com Our office is open 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday-Friday.
This is a condensed online version of the Freeman Courier. The printed editions are distributed every Thursday and include more news, photos, features and advertisements.
All subscriptions come due January 1 of every year. Subscriptions starting after that are available at a pro-rated price. An online only subscription is also available.
Send subscriptions or address changes to Freeman Courier, PO Box 950, Freeman, SD 57029-0950 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.com
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For information about any of these publications, contact the Courier office and ask for advertising manager Jason Scharberg.
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For information about new items or letters to the editor, contact the Courier office and ask for publisher Jeremy Waltner.


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|Prospea holoserisca
Chen, Bever, Yi & Norell, 2016
DOI: 10.1038/srep19209
Fossils are indispensible in understanding the evolutionary origins of the modern fauna. Crown-group spadefoot toads (Anura: Pelobatoidea) are the best-known fossorial frog clade to inhabit arid environments, with species utilizing a characteristic bony spade on their foot for burrowing. Endemic to the Northern Hemisphere, they are distributed across the Holarctic except East Asia. Here we report a rare fossil of a crown-group spadefoot toad from the late Paleocene of Mongolia. The phylogenetic analysis using both morphological and molecular information recovered this Asian fossil inside the modern North American pelobatoid clade Scaphiopodidae. The presence of a spade and the phylogenetic position of the new fossil frog strongly support its burrowing behavior. The late Paleocene age and other information suggestive of a mild climate cast doubt on the conventional assertion that burrowing evolved as an adaptation to aridity in spadefoot toads. Temporally and geographically, the new fossil provides the earliest record of Scaphiopodidae worldwide, and the only member of the group in Asia. Quantitative biogeographic analysis suggests that Scaphiopodidae, despite originating in North America, dispersed into East Asia via Beringia in the Early Cenozoic. The absence of spadefoot toads in East Asia today is a result of extinction.
Systematic Paleontology
Amphibia Linnaeus, 1758.
Anura Rafinesque, 1815.
Pelobatoidea Bolkay, 1919.
Scaphiopodidae Cope, 1865.
Prospea holoserisca gen. et sp. nov.
Etymology: Prospea means "before the North American spadefoot toad Spea", and holoserisca means "silk", referring to its discovery on the ancient Silk Road.
|Figure 1: IGM 2/001, holotype of Prospea holoserisca.
(a) The original specimen in rock matrix and jackets before preparation, preserved in part and counterpart; (b) the specimen in ventral and dorsal view after the preparation.
Holotype: IGM 2/001 (Institute of Geology, Mongolia, Ulanbaatar, Mongolia), a nearly complete specimen preserved as part and counterpart in grey sandy clay (Fig. 1a). The rock matrix was later removed and the specimen was embedded in resin (Fig. 1b; see the Supplementary Experimental Procedures: fossil preparation). The two halves of the holotype were combined digitally to reconstruct the whole skeleton (Fig. 2; Supplementary Movie S1).
Jianye Chen, Gaberiel S. Bever, Hong-Yu Yi and Mark A. Norell. 2016. A Burrowing Frog from the late Paleocene of Mongolia Uncovers A Deep History of Spadefoot Toads (Pelobatoidea) in East Asia.
Scientific Reports. 6, 19209. DOI: 10.1038/srep19209
Scientific Reports. 6, 19209. DOI: 10.1038/srep19209


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Full Service Scheduling Consultancy
MISSION STATEMENT: ICS-Scheduling will provide project-specific planning and scheduling products and services that are guaranteed to supply the Project Manager with timely, accurate, insightful, and worthwhile information not otherwise available or accessible. All scheduling products and services (a) will exceed contract requirements, (b) will reflect an attractive cost-benefit ratio, (c) will communicate information in a readily intuitive manner, (d) will discourage disputes and foster an atmosphere of synergistic collaboration and cooperation among project participants, and (e) will aggressively facilitate the successful achievement of all time-related goals. Learn more...
And now ICS-Scheduling is proud to offer yet another first-of-a-kind service for the Construction Project Time Management, the ICS SLIDE Squad -- a corps of ready-to-travel, senior-level schedulers who slide onto a new project, set up the project schedule, turn it over to the Contractor 's scheduling staff to maintain and use, and then slide off the project. SLIDE stands for "Senior-Level, Immediately-Deployable Experts." Learn more...
|COMPONENT DESCRIPTION: All construction planning and scheduling services provided by ICS-Scheduling shall be in accordance with the ICS-Compendium, a multi-volume set of concepts, principles, standards, best practices, required operating procedures, and terminology. If either a project's contract or its Owner's edicts prohibit Compendium-quality products and services, ICS-Scheduling will decline the assignment. Compendium-based scheduling is characterized by (a) quicker and easier schedule development, (b) schedules that are lean and robust, and (c) schedule performance that is more coherent, relevant, and field-oriented. Scheduling under the ICS-Compendium is compatible with what it calls Cognitive Project Management, a philosophy that focuses management attention on what is known and reasonably expected, and less on retrospective trending exercises.
|Implementation Expertise
ICS-Scheduling offers broad and comprehensive expertise in all facets of Scheduling Practice implementation. ICS-Scheduling is staffed by construction Scheduling Practitioners at all levels of the spectrum, from Apprentice Scheduler to Testifying Expert. ICS-Scheduling provides staff augmentation, consulting, preventive oversight, and our one-of-a-kind Scheduler's Lifeline.
|Staff Augmentation
ICS-Scheduling is proud of its cadre of Scheduling Practitioners, ready to hit the road on a moment's notice, in order to fill any assignment, whether temporary or permanent, and whether seconded to your payroll, loaned from our payroll, or brokered contract laborers. These talented folks are able to perform the full range of services associated with the Scheduling Practice.
We are especially proud of our recently introduced ICS SLIDE Squad, a corps of ready-to-travel, senior-level schedulers who can jump onto a new project, set up the project schedule*, and then turn it over to the client's scheduling staff for ongoing maintenance. For more information, see ICS SLIDE Squad.
Consulting Services
Another popular category within ICS-Scheduling are our consulting services. We can help companies (owners, contractors, design professionals, sureties, construction managers) of any size to develop or improve their in-house Project Time Management capabilities. Setting up a Scheduling Department for the first time requires special expertise that not every Project Time Management Practitioner has, because there is much more to organizational development than what is involved in merely producing and maintaining a project schedule. We can help with initial planning, staffing, standardizing procedures, training, software selection, corporate rollout, and long-term oversight.
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The best time to stop a claim is before it starts. The best time to stop a delay is before it happens. Many of our clients find comfort in having our most seasoned experts monitor their projects from a distance, offering timely advice (as the first hints of trouble arise) on how to mitigate or avoid troubles down the road. Our Big Brother program allows us to transparently monitor project communications, and offer helpful advice if we see the need, or if contacted by your project management for input.
|Scheduler Lifeline
Schedulers typically work alone, not alongside other Practitioners. This makes it difficult for them to brainstorm with colleagues on a technical level, keep abreast of the latest advancements in the Practice, or learn from one another. Employers pay, unnecessarily, for frequently recreated wheels. With the Scheduler Lifeline program, Practitioners have timely and thorough interaction with and support from the ICS-Scheduling "technical help desk."
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We deliver on All Orders Over $30!
Strub Niersteiner Bruckchen Riesling Kabinett
$ 20.99
Brand Strub
After all the tongue-numbing work of blending it, we ended up with a fairly simple cuvee of three tanks. We waffled; one blend was really fennely but the other, we agreed, was more suave, with more polish and repose. Not that it lacks energy; it has minerality and its roasted-corn typicity has less scallion than usual. Elegantly long finish.
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"Smoke and mineral aromas suggest red slate, augmented by passion fruit and pineapple flavors. This is light-weight and detailed, with balance and fine length. Drink now through 2022. 460 cases imported." WS90 Wine Spectator


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Offered for sale is an original Japanese red vinyl white label test pressing of Martin Denny's 1966 LP Hawaiian a Go Go.
About this copy: The copy offered for sale is an original test pressing, pressed on "Everclean" red vinyl and probably sent out as an advance promotional copy.
The cover and disc are both M-; the record appears to have had very little, if any, play. The original envelope inner sleeve is included. The obi is missing. This album was originally issued without an insert.
A beautiful copy of a fun record with a great cover.
Background: Martin Denny, while not well known today, was practically a household word in the late 1950s, having created a genre of music known as "exotica." Light jazz, featuring piano and vibraphone, was paired with sounds of nature, such as frogs and birds. It was weird, but it worked, and Denny sold a lot of records during those two decades. Many of his albums featured model/actress Sandy Warner on the cover, and many of his albums are collectible today for the covers alone.
Hawaiian a Go Go was released in 1966, though in most of the world, the album was titled Hawaii Goes a Go Go, and the album had a different cover. The cover on the Japanese pressing (which we prefer) is unique to that country's issue.
This record is eligible for PayPal Credit financing by PayPal. U.S. customers may choose to pay later at checkout, and may receive up to six months financing with no interest. Click the banner below for more information. (opens in a popup window)


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Calderdale Council has confirmed that the Ward Forum Grants will continue into this next year with a further £5000 for each ward in Calderdale, in addition any under spend will carry over from last year.
**Apply Now!**
Frequently Asked Questions:
- How much money is there?
- Who decides how the money is spent?
- Am I eligible to apply for a grant?
- When can I apply?
- How do I apply?
- I don't live in North and East Halifax, how do I apply in my area?
- When will I find out if my application has been successful?
- What should I do if my application is unsuccessful?
- How do I make a complaint?
- How can I see what the money has already been spent on?
How much money is there?
Each ward receives £5000 per year.
Who decides how the money is spent?
Following consultation at the Ward Forum meetings it was agreed that each of the four wards in North and East Halifax would set up micro commissioning panels to allocate grants.
The Neighbourhood Team facilitates the panels but decisions about who will receive a grant are taken by a panel of neutral community representatives.
Current membership of the panels in 2019/20 were agreed at the March 2019 ward forum meetings and are as follows:
|Panel members
|Illingworth and Mixenden
|Cllr B Collins, Cllr L Lambert, Cllr D Sutherland, PCSO D Talbot (West Yorkshire Police) and T King(Ovenden and Mixenden Initiative) Heather Bates (Resident) Maurice Thorpe (Holmfield Bowls Club)
|Northowram and Shelf
|Cllr S Baines, Cllr R Taylor, Cllr P Caffrey, T King(Ovenden and Mixenden Initiative), C Organ (Local Resident) and S Crossley (Local Resident)
|Cllr A Collins, Cllr B Smith, Cllr H Rivron, C Webster (Together Housing), D Eyres (Local Resident), T King (Ovenden and Mixenden Initiative), K Scanlon (Ovenden and Mixenden Initiative) and D Eyers (Local Resident) P Robinson (Friends of Shroggs Park) J Tillotson (Friends of Beechwood Park) J Rooke (Resident)
|Cllr J Baker, Cllr A Evans, Cllr M Foster, J Maudsley (Mount Tabor Community Association), P Tait (Pellon Community Group), H Conlon (Staying Well), T King ((Ovenden and Mixenden Initiative), I Thompson(Friends of West View Park) and M Armstrong ( Friends of St. Columba's)
Am I eligible to apply for a grant?
Anyone can make an application for a ward forum grant up to a maximum of £500 to any of the N&E ward forums.
Your project must be an activity or project that benefits the ward to which it applies.
In some cases applications have been refused because they don't meet this principal, or they have been transferred to another ward for consideration.
It may also be possible to split funding across 2 wards as long as the total amount applied for does not exceed £500.
There is no restriction on how many times a group can apply within the year however priority will be given to new applicants.
Constituted groups should have a bank account in the name of the group so that if successful the money can be transferred to them.
Any applicants that do not hold a bank account can still apply, providing they can show how their project or activity will benefit the community. If their application is successful invoices will be paid directly by the Neighbourhood Team.
If you have any questions about the eligibility of your application, please give us a call on 0300 555 0266 or email firstname.lastname@example.com
When can I apply?
There will be 3 rounds of funding this year and you can apply to the fund from 1 May 2019.
The closing dates for each round are 30 June 2019, 30 September 2019 and 21 Februaury 2020.
If there is a good reason why you would require a grant before the closing date please contact us on 0300 555 0266. In exceptional circumstances the panel may agree to consider your application sooner if they agree that there is sufficient community benefit.
How do I apply?
Apply online here: https://halifaxnorthandeast.com/ward-forum-grants/apply/
If you would prefer to apply using a paper form, please give us a call on 0300 555 0266 or email email@example.com
Don't let the form put you off! If you've got a good idea for something in your neighbourhood, give us a call on 0300 555 0266 ask to speak to Tony King or Rachael Henry and we'll help.
I don't live in North and East Halifax, how can I apply in my area?
For ward forum grants in other areas of Calderdale please contact your local Neighbourhood Officer:
- Halifax Central (Park, Skircoat, Sowerby Bridge, Town)– 01422 365948
- Lower Valley (Brighouse, Elland, Greetland and Stainland, Hipperholme and Lightcliffe, Rastrick) – 01422 288017
- Upper Valley (Calder, Luddenden, Ryburn, Todmorden) – 01422 244622
When will I find out if my application has been successful?
The grant panel will meet shortly after the round closes, and you should be notified of the outcome of your application within 1 month of the closing date.
If you have been successful you will receive an offer of the grant in writing. You should respond to this offer within 1 month.
As the grants are often over-subscribed the panel may decide to offer you less than the requested amount.
If your activity or project involves children or vulnerable adults the panel may ask about your arrangements for safeguarding. If necessary the panel may make an award conditional on proof that a group has an up to date safeguarding policy.
The panel reserves the right to reject an application where another local grant pot is more suitable.
What should I do if my application is unsuccessful?
If your application was unsuccessful the Neighbourhood Team will advise you on why it was declined by the panel.
The panel may also suggest alternate funding pots for you to apply to and the again the Neighbourhood Team will be available to support you with this.
What if I want to make a complaint?
Complaints about funding decisions should be addressed to Vicky McGhee – email@example.com or post to N&E Neighbourhood Team, 87 Turner Avenue South, Illingworth, HX2 8EF
Complaints about the administration of the Ward Forum grants process by the N&E Neighbourhood Team should be made to Calderdale Council.


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White Pricing Label 1 Line
Sticky, secure and noticeable, our pricing labels safely adhere to products and apparel without leaving a sticky, gluey mess. Available in red and white.
* Disclaimer: Sold out items will be removed from the website, however delays can occur. We will contact you if an item is sold out and cannot be filled on your order. Closeout items cannot be returned. Due to color variations in monitors and printers, including settings and lighting, actual color may vary. For a true color representation, please call 888.429.5673 or email email@example.com for actual sample(s).


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ST. IGNACE, Mich. — A giant U.S. flag was again visible on the Mighty Mac as Americans observed the 18th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The Mackinac Bridge Authority hung the U.S. flag, measuring 30 feet by 60 feet, Wednesday from the tower of the bridge that connects the Upper and Lower peninsulas of Michigan, MLive reported.
The flag is displayed on six holidays each year -- Memorial Day, Flag Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Patriots Day and Veterans Day, the website reported.
The flag also is unfurled through a new 36-foot reel system, which stores the Stars and Stripes like a roll-up window curtain on the bridge's towers, MLive reported.
The flag is lowered through a remote control device, the website reported.
© 2020 Cox Media Group


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As the British public prepares to vote its referendum on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), it is hardly thinking about the complex economic consequences. Instead, matters of sovereignty and culture seem to hold pride of place in their collective mind. Whatever their focus, however, their decision will have huge economic consequences, for prices, for jobs and for matters of trade, in Europe generally but mostly in Britain. The probabilities suggest that Brexit is a bad economic idea. Certainly, that is the conclusion reached by more than three quarters of the over 100 economists polled recently by the Financial Times.
British proponents of exit make their economic case primarily in terms of EU rules and expenses. They argue that Britain has better uses for the £6.0 billion ($8.6 billion) a year it transfers on balance to the EU. They argue, too, that stifling regulations imposed by EU rule makers have stymied the dynamism, innovation, and growth potential of the British economy. They may have a point, but, if so, it is a minor one. Trade is the pivotal issue for this economy. Almost 60 percent of its production revolves around imports and exports. Prosperity after exit depends entirely on how quickly Britain can re-negotiate favorable trade arrangements with the separate members of the union as well as other countries, the United States, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, and China prominent among them. Here, matters look problematic at best.
The first impediment to economic success is EU Article 50. The only legal means to leave the union, it, once triggered, would allow no turning back. It gives EU members up to two years to negotiate the terms of exit. In the interim, Britain could only wait, for the rule would neither allow it to participate in those negotiations nor vote. The EU would ultimately present Britain with a take it or leave it deal. Even if the eventual arrangements were generous, which is by no means certain, the onerous delays involved would stymie all efforts to re-establish its trade agreements, either with EU member nations, presently about half that economy's foreign trade, or with other key trading partners, 60 of which now interface with Britain according to agreements struck with the EU as a whole.
Financial repercussions of delay would compound Britain's problems. Uncertainty about the fate of British trade and hence the economy would drive away investment flows, from foreign as well as British interests. Britons would have to pay higher interest rates to borrow on global markets. Sterling would lose foreign exchange value. The currency has already suffered in anticipation of the referendum, falling about 3 percent against the dollar and 6.5 percent against the euro during this year's first quarter. If the vote favors continued union and by implication a return to relative certainty, borrowing rates and the currency values would likely recover. If, however, the British vote to leave, uncertainties would multiply, prompting a still more pronounced rise in borrowing rates and additional declines in sterling's value. To some extent, currency depreciation, by lowering the global cost of goods and services priced in sterling, would help mitigate the otherwise ill effects on British trade, but at the same time, it would cost the British economy by raising the price of everything it purchases abroad and perhaps raising inflation rates into the bargain. Meanwhile, the outflow of funds would reduce overall investment rates in Britain, hardly a good thing for productivity and growth.
Many proponents of exit dismiss such concerns, pointing to the prosperity that Norway and Switzerland enjoy despite their positions outside the union. This, sadly, is a false comparison. These are much smaller economies. Norway, for instance, produces a mere 14 percent of the goods and services Britain does, and Switzerland produces only slightly more, 23 percent. Still more significant than size distinctions is the huge difference between nations that stayed away and one that now must disentangle itself from a raft of fundamental arrangements. Perhaps Britain would be better off today if it had never joined. Even if one could prove such a thing, it would be irrelevant. The fact is Britain did join. Leaving now cannot put an alternative history into place. On the contrary, it will confront the economy with shocks and a need for adjustment that neither Norway nor Switzerland faced nor will face.
The British people may consider the non-economic benefits or separation ample compensation for the economic risks. That is a subjective judgment that the voters will have to make for themselves. But it would be a mistake to believe that benefits of whatever sort would come without risk. Because so much of the economic outcome remains ambiguous, all the scholarly attempts to weigh the impact of Brexit have had to deal in scenarios. These naturally create a wide range of possibilities. Most of these efforts suggest that the economy will suffer in the near and intermediate term and then conclude that any long-term net benefit depends on a delicate and improbable balance of contingencies. Most as a consequence suggest that exit will take up to 3.1 percent off the real economy compared with what Britain would otherwise enjoy if it stays in the union. The ideal outcome after exit promises a relative gain of only 1.6 percent. It does not look like a good tradeoff.