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Pacific Houseboats began building houseboats in 1990 and had a successful decade. The sister company is still in business today. This houseboat was built in 1998, soundly constructed of steel pontoons and solid steel foundation, with the structure being built of wood. The pontoons are painted with...more
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This seller has 3 nearly identical boats. Click the button below to see each of the additional boats, shown with their individual price.
Pacific Houseboats began building houseboats in 1990 and had a successful decade. The sister company is still in business today. This houseboat was built in 1998, soundly constructed of steel pontoons and solid steel foundation, with the structure being built of wood. The pontoons are painted with top-of-the-line Coal Cat Marine coating.
The steel pontoons with the tar epoxy coating are safe from corrosion not to mention they are durable and strong. There are six baffles in each pontoon so if part of the pontoon is compromised; only that baffle will potentially fill with water.
There are five batteries total with ages reported by the seller to be of three to five years. Two are used for the motors and three for the cabin. When the two for the engines are fully charged, they are configured to charge the cabin batteries.
Comfort, ease of use and ample storage were the themes of this layout. From the penthouse loft, that sleeps 4-6 children, or can be used for storage, to the rear bedroom and great room with two berths, a total of 13 people can sleep aboard in her current configuration.
The galley has two refrigerator/freezers, a three-burner propane stove with oven, a microwave, two sinks and plenty of storage space. You'll be able to cook large meals with ease.
There are one and a half heads in amply sized rooms.
Outside the main floor and spacious upper deck all have railings for safety. Both the front and back of the houseboat have good-sized decks with the rear deck having a spiral staircase to the upper deck.
Three air conditioners will keep you cool, and a sound system throughout the main deck will keep you entertained.
For mobility, the helm provides great 180-degree vision. Two Evinrude outboard 60 horsepower engines make maneuvering a breeze.
A Westerbeke generator will give you the ability to have all the creature comforts, even when you're away from the slip.
According to the Owner:
Move-in condition!
All systems and mechanics have been maintained and are fully functional.
Steel pontoons are painted and in good shape.
All equipment in the galley and head, bunks, doors, and windows throughout the cabin are in good working order. The helm is fully functional.
The manufacturer is still in business under a different name in Redding CA. Houseboat parts are available!
We have several active listings for Holiday Mansion, Fun Country, Chris-Craft, and Gibson. If you're in the San Jose, Sacramento, Oakland, or Fremont areas, please use the form on this page to let me know what you're looking for and I'll get back with you today about any other house boat / trawlers options we have locally that may meet your needs.
60-day Sea Tow membership* comes standard with your boat purchase!
All reasonable offers will be reviewed and presented to the seller.
All offers are contingent upon being fully satisfied with unit after personal inspection and/or professional inspection.
Check out this 1998 Pacific Boats 15 X 56 in Stockton, California! #PacificBoats #popyachts https://www.popyachts.com/house-boats-for-sale/pacific-boats-15-x-56-in-stockton-california-146402
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We work closely with several marine lenders to offer you competitive rates and flexible financing options to get you approved and on the water quickly. Click the button below to view some of the lenders we work with.
Financing may not be available for this vessel, due either to its age or category. However, banks are giving marine loans, and we would love to get you started in a discussion about financing.
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If you believe the adage that a team is only as strong as its weakest member, it is clear to see why organisations are investing in building better teaming capabilities to achieve organisational effectiveness.
However, articulating what a team needs in terms of improving the way they work is a constant challenge. We thought it worthwhile to highlight some interesting themes emerging and gaining traction based on recent work we have carried out with Teams, to see if it connects with you and what you are experiencing.
1. As organisational culture shifts steadily towards one that empowers people to lead at all levels, the demand on individual and collective leadership capabilities is moving up the priority list of essential teaming competencies. Generally, people develop a way of leading through their experiences and apply that style to every circumstance they encounter. In a team environment, this is often a source of conflict and erodes trust within and towards the team. For example, a dominant teammate taking over and disempowering others to stand-up and contribute. Learning and modelling leadership flex is a key aspect of team development. Team success comes from team members demonstrating personal and collective leadership styles that are appropriate to the followership they seek to achieve in each interaction.
2. Much like family, we rarely get to pick the people we work with as part of a team. Team diversity is often the biggest source of interpersonal conflict and poor communication. Working with teams to help them understand and value the differences is essential to them achieving better outcomes. With this understanding, the team can leverage team member's strengths without fear of judgement or misinterpretation. Cross-cultural understanding is also a big factor. It commonly creates issues around communication, interpretation of desired outcomes and inter-personal issues that damage the smooth running of a team. Some of the models we work with to create awareness and understanding around team diversity include Hofstede Cultural Dimensions, Strength Finder, MBTI, and Belbin Team Roles.
3. More and more organisations are realising the need to look at the organisation in terms of an integrated and interdependent system. Applying systems thinking to how we solve organisational challenges has become common practice as a way of limiting the impact of unintended consequences caused by narrowly focused solutions. Our work is to introduce or encourage integrative thinking, so that teams understand that they not only need to solve the problem they have been tasked with, but also ensure that the impact of their solutions has the least possible unintended consequences for others.
4. Integrating remote workers is a challenge at the best of time. However, when we look at this challenge in the context of team performance the effect is amplified. While we are seeing some movement away from this model, IBM as the latest example, the reality is that managing the productivity of remote teams will always be a factor due to globalization and the need for flexible work practices. This creates a greater need for teams to have high levels of trust and accountability so that they can have robust inputs into team discussions. Some of the skills we help teams develop are reading language cues, active listening, and having the courage to have personal conversations and address concerns head on. As team facilitators, we work with the unspoken dynamics to create learning opportunities during the intervention, ensure everyone stays 'present' and that the team achieve the level of honesty need to build real and lasting trust.
5. The desire for learning is a significant advantage for the knowledge based economy – if an organisation doesn't grow its knowledge base through its people, it is at a competitive disadvantage. Additionally, the desire to learn satisfies the individual's intrinsic motivation, leading to happier more committed staff. While our approach is anchored in practical and experiential learning, many of the methodologies we use have a basis in academia. We have seen an increase in demand for source materials and references from participants wanting to deepen their learning. During a recent programme over 50% of the team had sourced and purchased Lencioni's 5 Dysfunctions of a Team, which we were working with. By the end of the intervention, they were teaching the principles to others in the organisation, as subject experts. The cascade effect if this appetite for knowledge multiplied the company's ROI.
We would be interested to hear what if anything has connected with you, based on experiences of being part of a team or managing one. Is there anything else that comes up for you as a key teaming challenge?
Written by Dayna and Peter of Distinctions

subset: commoncrawl


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DescriptionSurprise and delight her with this 10kt yellow gold chain. The tightly knit double curb links create a length of 55cm (21.5") and make for a truly timeless choice.
Product Details
- Metal content 10 Karat
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Delivery & Returns
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Hotel Ideale Hotel
Viale dei Mille 60, Milan, Italy
- HostelBookers
- Hotels
- italy hotels
- Lombardy
- Hotels in milan
- Hotel Ideale
- Hotel Ideale Map
Atmosphere 89%
Cleanliness 91%
Facilities 82%
Location 83%
Safety 89%
Staff 91%
Value 82%
- Air conditioning
- 24 Hour Reception
- Bar APM-96
- Breakfast Not Included
- Currency Exchange
- Elevator
- Free Parking
- Luggage Storage
- Tours/Travel Desk
Important Information
Please note:
City tax not included 4,00 EUR per person per night
Check-in / Check-out
Earliest check-in: 00:00
Latest Check-out: 12:00
- Credit Cards Accepted
- No Curfew
- Taxes Not Included
Group booking?
Group of 15 or more traveling to Milan?
Map and Directions
By carFrom the freeways: whether you arrive from the A1 Milano - Napoli (Autostrada del Sole), A4 Torino - Trieste or A8 Milano - Varese (Milano Laghi), go through the toll booth and continue towards the centre (centro) and take the Tangenziale Est. Take exit no. 6 "Forlanini", turn right on Viale Enrico Forlanini and continue for 800 meters. Then take Viale Corsica for 1.1 km and next Corso XXII Marzo for 500 meters. Turn right into Piazza Emilia, after 50 meters continue on Viale Piceno for 600 meters. Viale dei Mille starts after 300 meters, drive down it for another 300 meters to reach Hotel Ideale.By trainFrom Central station take bus 92 and get off at the Dei Mille – Modena stop. We are 100 meters away. Alternatively, take the number 60 for eight stops. Get off at Castel Morrone - Modena. Hotel Ideale is 200 meters away. With tram number 5 get off in Piazza Ascoli, from there it is 300 meters on foot.If you prefer the metro, take the Yellow line towards San Donato, change at the first stop "Repubblica". From here take the Ferrovie Nord train for Bovisa and get off at the second stop "Dateo". The hotel is 300 meters from Piazzale Dateo.By planeFrom Milan's Linate Airport, take bus no. 73 and get off at Corso XXII Marzo. From there take bus no. 92 and get off at the Dei Mille – Modena stop. We are 100 meters away.From Milan's Malpensa airport, take the Shuttle for Stazione Centrale (train station). From there take bus no. 92 and get off at the Dei Mille – Modena stop. We are 100 meters away.From Milan's Orio al Serio Airport (Bergamo), take the bus for Lambrate station. Then take bus no. 54 and get off at the Corso Plebisciti stop at the corner of Piazzale Dateo. We are 300 meters away.On foot from the centre of MilanYou can reach the Hotel with buses 54, 60, 61 and 62. From Porta Garibaldi and Porta Venezia take the Ferrovie Nord and get off at the Dateo stop.


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DIFFERENTIAL HEAVY-DUTY LOCKING REAR,REMOTE VEHICLE STARTER SYSTEM,TRANSMISSION 6-SPEED AUTOMATIC ELECTRONICALLY CONTROLLED with overdrive and tow/haul mode. Includes Cruise Grade Braking and Powertrain Grade Braking (STD),DEFOGGER REAR-WINDOW ELECTRIC,CHEVROLET MYLINK AUDIO SYSTEM 8 DIAGONAL COLOR TOUCH WITH AM/FM/SIRIUSXM/HD USB PORTS auxiliary jack SD card slot Bluetooth streaming audio for music and most phones hands-free Smartphone integration Pandora Internet radio voice-activated technology for radio and phone and 4 customizable themes,SEATS FRONT 40/20/40 SPLIT-BENCH 3-PASSENGER AVAILABLE IN CLOTH OR LEATHER includes driver and front passenger recline with outboard head restraints and center fold-down armrest with storage. Also includes manually adjustable driver lumbar lockable storage compartment in seat cushion and storage pockets. (STD),LICENSE PLATE KIT FRONT,TRAILERING PACKAGE includes trailer hitch 7-pin and 4-pin connectors (Includes (G80) locking rear differential.,WHEELS 18 X 8.5 (45.7 CM X 21.6 CM) BRIGHT-MACHINED ALUMINUM,POWER OUTLET 110-VOLT AC,TUNGSTEN METALLIC,TIRES P265/65R18 ALL-TERRAIN WHITE OUTLINED LETTER,REAR AXLE 3.23 RATIO,SUSPENSION PACKAGE HANDLING/TRAILERING (STD),PAINT SOLID,SEAT ADJUSTER DRIVER 10-WAY POWER,1LT PREFERRED EQUIPMENT GROUP includes standard equipment,AIR CONDITIONING DUAL-ZONE AUTOMATIC CLIMATE CONTROL,ALL STAR EDITION includes (AG1) driver 10-way power seat adjuster with (AZ3) bench seat only (CJ2) dual-zone climate control (BTV) Remote Vehicle Starter system (IO5) MyLink 8 Diagonal Color Touch Screen audio system (UVC) Rear Vision Camera (C49) rear-window defogger and (KI4) 110-volt power outlet and 18 aluminum wheels (Includes (Z82) Trailering Package (G80) locking differential (PZX) 18 x 8.5 aluminum wheels and (T3U) fog lamps.,ENGINE 4.3L FLEXFUEL ECOTEC3 V6 WITH ACTIVE FUEL MANAGEMENT DIRECT INJECTION AND VARIABLE VALVE TIMING includes aluminum block construction with FlexFuel capability capable of running on unleaded or up to 85% ethanol (285 hp [212 kW] @ 5300 rpm 305 lb-ft of torque [413 Nm] @ 3900 rpm) (STD),GVWR 6900 LBS. (3130 KG) (STD),JET BLACK CLOTH SEAT TRIM,TIRE SPARE P265/70R17 ALL-SEASON BLACKWALL,FOG LAMPS FRONT HALOGEN,THEFT-DETERRENT SYSTEM UNAUTHORIZED ENTRY,REAR VISION CAMERA WITH DYNAMIC GUIDE LINES,Rear Wheel Drive,Power Steering,ABS,4-Wheel Disc Brakes,Traction Control,Stability Control,Aluminum Wheels,Tires - Front All-Season,Tires - Rear All-Season,Conventional Spare Tire,Conventional Spare Tire,Heated Mirrors,Power Mirror(s),Privacy Glass,AM/FM Stereo,MP3 Player,Bluetooth Connection,Auxiliary Audio Input,Smart Device Integration,CD Player,MP3 Player,Satellite Radio,HD Radio,Requires Subscription,Bluetooth Connection,Split Bench Seat,Driver Adjustable Lumbar,Pass-Through Rear Seat,Rear Bench Seat,Floor Mats,Cruise Control,Steering Wheel Audio Controls,Leather Steering Wheel,Adjustable Steering Wheel,Steering Wheel Audio Controls,Power Windows,Power Door Locks,Keyless Entry,Power Door Locks,Cruise Control,A/C,Driver Vanity Mirror,Passenger Vanity Mirror,Driver Illuminated Vanity Mirror,Passenger Illuminated Visor Mirror,Daytime Running Lights,Driver Air Bag,Passenger Air Bag,Front Side Air Bag,Front Head Air Bag,Rear Head Air Bag,Passenger Air Bag Sensor,Telematics,Navigation from Telematics,Tire Pressure Monitor
As one of the top car dealerships in MA, we carry the entire lineup of new Chevy vehicles, from the Cruze and the Malibu to the Equinox, the Suburban and, of course, the rugged Chevrolet Silverado. Our diverse inventory means we have the colors and trims you want most, so there's no need to special order! Our friendly staff will assist you with every step in the car-buying process, from the test-drive to the financing, and we'll always take the time to answer your questions. Don't forget that we're also a great place to get a used car in MA.
New vehicle pricing includes all offers and incentives.Documentation fee of $299 is not included in price of vehicle. Tax Title and Tags not included in vehicle prices shown and must be paid by the purchaser. While great effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information on this site errors do occur so please verify information with a customer service rep. This is easily done by calling us at 781-917-1298 or by visiting us at the dealership.
**With approved credit. Terms may vary. Monthly payments are only estimates derived from the vehicle price with a month term % interest and % downpayment.u
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444 Quincy Ave. • Braintree, MA 02184Get Directions
Open Today! Sales: 9am-8pm
Open Today! Service: 7am-4pm
Phone: (781) 843-4800https://maps.google.com/?q=Quirk+Chevrolet,444+Quincy+Avenue,Braintree,MA


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Inking in RED ... I love RED!
Thursday, August 23, 2012
CCEE1234 Paper Piecing
This week I chose the Paper Piecing Technique for our challenge.
I stamped this sweet image, Child with Bouquets (532-09 from Rubbernecker Stamps) on white cardstock, and on the purple plaid, to piece her dress. I used markers for her hair and flowers, and then punched tiny flowers again in plaid.
I Finished the card with a piece of green cs, ribbon, a flower, and leaves.
Please join us again next week, and be sure to add your card
so we can see it too.
Posted by
jdmommy - Anne Harmon
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Archive for the 'Medical Statistics' Category
Let's Face It, We Are Numskulls At Math!
Noted mathematician, Timothy Gowers, talks about the importance of math
I've often written about Mathematics before Footnotes. As much as math helps us better understand our world (Modern Medicine's recent strides have a lot to do with applied math for example), it also tells us how severely limited man's common thinking is.
Humans and yes some animals too, are born with or soon develop an innate ability for understanding numbers. Yet, just like animals, our proficiency with numbers seems to stop short of the stuff that goes beyond our immediate activities of daily living (ADL) and survival. Because we are a higher form of being (or allegedly so, depending on your point of view), our ADLs are a lot more sophisticated than say those of, canaries or hamsters. And consequently you can expect to see a little more refined arithmetic being used by us. But fundamentally, we share this important trait – of being able to work with numbers from an early stage. A man who has a family with kids knows almost by instinct that if he has two kids to look after, that would mean breakfast, lunch and dinner times 2 in terms of putting food on the table. He would have to buy two sets of clothes for his kids. A kid soon learns that he has two parents. And so on. It's almost natural. And when someone can't figure out their way doing simple counting or arithmetic, we know that something might be wrong. In Medicine, we have a term for this. It's called acalculia and often indicates the presence of a neuropsychiatric disorder.
It's easy for 'normal' people to do 2 + 2 in their heads. Two oranges AND two oranges make a TOTAL of four oranges. This basic stuff helps us get by day-to-day. But how many people can wrap their heads around 1 divided by 0? If you went to school, yea sure your teachers must have hammered the answer into you: infinity. But how do you visualize it? Yes, I know it's possible. But it takes unusual work. I think you can see my point, even with this simple example. We haven't even begun to speak about probability, wave functions, symmetries, infinite kinds of infinities, multiple-space-dimensions, time's arrow, quantum mechanics, the Higgs field or any of that stuff yet!
As a species, it is so obvious that we aren't at all good at math. It's almost as if we construct our views of the universe through this tunneled vision that helps us in our day-to-day tasks, but fails otherwise.
We tend to think of using math as an ability when really it should be thought of as a sensory organ. Something that is as vital to understanding our surroundings as our eyes, ears, noses, tongues and skins. And despite lacking this sense, we tend to go about living as though we somehow understand everything. That we are aware of what it is to be aware of. This can often lead to trouble down the road. I've talked about numerous PhDs having failed at the Monty Hall Paradox before. But a recent talk I watched, touched upon something with serious consequences that meant people being wrongfully convicted because of a stunted interpretation of DNA, fingerprint evidence, etc. by none other than "expert" witnesses. In other words, serious life and death issues. So much for our expertise as a species, eh?!
How the human mind struggles with math!
We recently also learned that the hullabaloo over H1N1 pandemic influenza had a lot do with our naive understanding of math, the pitfalls of corporate-driven public-interest research notwithstanding.
Anyhow, one of my main feelings is that honing one's math not only helps us survive better, but it can also teach us about our place in the universe. Because we can then begin to fully use it as a sensory organ in its own right. Which is why a lot of pure scientists have argued that doing math for math's own sake can not only be great fun (if done the right way, of course :-P) but should also be considered necessary. Due to the fact that such research has the potential to reveal entirely new vistas that can enchant us and surprise us at the same time (take Cantor's work on infinity for example). For in the end, discovery, really, is far more enthralling than invention.
UPDATE 1: Check out the Khan Academy for a virtually A-Z education on math — and all of it for free! This is especially a great resource for those of us who can't even recall principles of addition, subtraction, etc. let alone calculus or any of the more advanced stuff.
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
# Footnotes:
The Doctor's Apparent Ineptitude
As a fun project, I've decided to frame this post as an abstract.
To elucidate factors influencing perceived incompetence on the part of the doctor by the layman/patient/patient's caregiver.
Arm-chair pontification and a little gedankenexperiment based on prior experience with patients as a medical trainee.
Preliminary analyses indicate widespread suspicions among patients on the ineptitude of doctors no matter what the level of training. This is amply demonstrated in the following figure:
As one can see, perceived ineptitude forms a wide spectrum – from most severe (med student) to least severe (attending). The underlying perceptions of incompetence do not seem to abate at any level however, and eyewitness testimonies include phrases such as 'all doctors are inept; some more so than others'. At the med student level, exhausted patients find their anxious questions being greeted with a variety of responses ranging from the dumb 'I don't know', to the dumber 'well, I'm not the attending', to the dumbest 'uhh…mmmm..hmmm <eyes glazed over, pupils dilated>'. Escape routes will be meticulously planned in advance both by patients and more importantly by med students to avert catastrophe.
As for more senior medics such as attendings, evasion seems to be just a matter of hiding behind statistics. A gedankenexperiment was conducted to demonstrate this. The settings were two patients A and B, undergoing a certain surgical procedure and their respective caregivers, C-A and C-B.
Patient A
Consent & Pre-op
C-A: (anxious), Hey doc, ya think he's gonna make it?
Doc: It's difficult to say and I don't know that at the moment. There are studies indicating that 95% live and 5% die during the procedure though.
C-A: ohhh kay (slightly confused) (murmuring)…'All this stuff about knowing medicine. What does he know? One simple question and he gives me this? What the heck has this guy spent all these years studying for?!'
Post-op & Recovery
C-A: Ah, I just heard! He made it! Thank you doctor!
Doc: You're welcome (smug, god-complex)! See, I told ya 95% live. There was no reason for you to worry!
C-A: (sarcastic murmur) 'Yeah, right. Let him go through the pain of not knowing and he'll see. Look at him, so full of himself – as if he did something special; luck was on our side anyway. Heights of incompetence!'
Patient B
Consent & Pre-op
C-B: (anxious) Hey doc, ya think he's gonna make it?
Doc: It's difficult to say and I don't know that at the moment. There are studies indicating that 95% live and 5% die during the procedure though.
C-B: ohhh kay (slightly confused) (murmuring)…'All this stuff about knowing medicine. What does he know? One simple question and he gives me this? What the heck has this guy spent all these years studying for?!'
Post-op & Recovery
C-B: (angry, shouting numerous explicatives) What?! He died on the table?!
Doc: Well, I did mention that there was a 5% death rate.
C-B: (angry, shouting numerous explicatives).. You (more explicatives) incompetent quack! (murmuring) "How convenient! A lawsuit should fix him for good!"
The Doctor's Coping Strategy
Although numerous psychology models can be applied to understand physician behavior, the Freudian model reveals some interesting material. Common defense strategies that help doctors include:
Isolation of affect: eg. Resident tells Fellow, "you know that patient with the …well, she had a massive MI and went into VFib..died despite ACLS..poor soul…so hey, I hear they're serving pizza today at the conference…(the conference about commercializing healthcare and increasing physician pay-grades for 'a better and healthier tomorrow')"
Intellectualization: eg. Attending tells Fellow, "so you understand why that particular patient bled to death? Yeah it was DIC in the setting of septic shock….plus he had a prior MI with an Ejection Fraction of 33% so there was that component as well..but we couldn't really figure out why the antibiotics didn't work as expected…ID gave clearance….(ad infinitum)…so let's present this at our M&M conference this week.."
Displacement: eg. Caregiver yells at Fellow, "<explicatives>". Fellow yells at intern, "You knew that this was a case that I had a special interest in and yet you didn't bother to page me? Unacceptable!…" Intern then yells at med student, "Go <explicatives> disimpact Mr. X's bowels…if I don't see that done within the next 15 minutes, you're in for a class! Go go go…clock's ticking…tck tck tck!"
We believe there are other coping mechanisms that are important too, but in our observations these appear to be the most common. Of the uncommon ones, we think med students as a group in particular, are the most vulnerable to Regression & Dissociation, duly accounting for confounding factors.
All of these form a systematic ego-syntonic pattern of behavior, but for reasons we are still exploring, is not included in the DSM-IV manual's section on Personality Disorders.
Patients and their caregivers seem to think that ALL doctors are fundamentally inept, period. Ineptitude follows a wide spectrum however – ranging from the bizarre to the mundane. Further studies (including but not limited to arm-chair pontification) need to be carried out to corroborate these startling results and the factors that we have reported. Other studies need to elucidate remedial measures that can be employed to save the doctor-patient relationship.
NOTE: I wrote this piece as a reminder of how the doctor-patient relationship is experienced from the patient's side. In our business-as-usual frenzy, we as medics often don't think about these things. And these things often DO matter a LOT to our patients!
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
USMLE – Designing The Ultimate Questions
There are strategies that examiners can employ to frame questions that are designed to stump you on an exam such as the USMLE. Many of these strategies are listed out in the Kaplan Qbook and I'm sure this stuff will be familiar to many. My favorite techniques are the 'multi-step' and the 'bait-and-switch'.
The Multi-Step
Drawing on principles of probability theory, examiners will often frame questions that require you to know multiple facts and concepts to get the answer right. As a crude example:
"This inherited disease exclusive to females is associated with acquired microcephaly and the medical management includes __________________."
Such a question would be re-framed as a clinical scenario (an outpatient visit) with other relevant clinical data such as a pedigree chart. To get the answer right, you would need:
- Knowledge of how to interpret pedigree charts and identify that the disease manifests exclusively in females.
- Knowledge of Mendelian inheritance patterns of genetic diseases.
- Knowledge of conditions that might be associated with acquired microcephaly.
- Knowledge of medical management options for such patients.
Now taken individually, each of these steps – 1, 2, 3 and 4 – has a probability of 50% that you could get it right purely by random guessing. Combined together however, which is what is necessary to get the answer, the probability would be 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 6.25% [combined probability of independent events]. So now you know why they actually prefer multi-step questions over one or two-liners! 🙂 Notice that this doesn't necessarily have anything to do with testing your intelligence as some might think. It's just being able to recollect hard facts and then being able to put them together. They aren't asking you to prove a math theorem or calculate the trajectory of a space satellite 😛 !
The Bait-and-Switch
Another strategy is to riddle the question with chock-full of irrelevant data. You could have paragraph after paragraph describing demographic characteristics, anthropometric data, and 'bait' data that's planted there to persuade you to think along certain lines and as you grind yourself to ponder over these things you are suddenly presented with an entirely unrelated sentence at the very end, asking a completely unrelated question! Imagine being presented with the multi-step question above with one added fly in the ointment. As you finally finish the half-page length question, it ends with '<insert-similar-disease> is associated with the loss of this enzyme and/or body part: _______________'. Very tricky! Questions like these give flashbacks and dejavu of days from 2nd year med school, when that patient with a neck lump begins by giving you his demographic and occupational history. As an inexperienced med student you immediately begin thinking: 'hmmm..okay, could the lump be related to his occupation? …hmm…'. But wait! You haven't even finished the physical exam yet, let alone the investigations. As medics progress along their careers they tend to phase out this kind of analysis in favor of more refined 'heuristics' as Harrison's puts it. A senior medic will often wait to formulate opinions until the investigations are done and will focus on triaging problems and asking if management options are going to change them. The keyword here is 'triage'. Just as a patient's clinical information in a real office visit is filled with much irrelevant data, so too are many USMLE questions. That's not to say that demographic data, etc. are irrelevant under all conditions. Certainly, an occupational history of being employed at an asbestos factory would be relevant in a case that looks like a respiratory disorder. If the case looks like a respiratory disorder, but the question mentions an occupational history of being employed as an office clerk, then this is less likely to be relevant to the case. Similarly if it's a case that overwhelmingly looks like an acute abdomen, then a stray symptom of foot pain is less likely to be relevant. Get my point? That is why many recommend reading the last sentence or two of a USMLE question before reading the entire thing. It helps you establish what exactly is the main problem that needs to be addressed.
Hope readers have found the above discussion interesting :). Adios for now!
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
Decision Tree Questions In Genetics And The USMLE
Just a quick thought. It just occurred to me that some of the questions on the USMLE involving pedigree analysis in genetics, are actually typical decision tree questions. The probability that a certain individual, A, has a given disease (eg: Huntington's disease) purely by random chance is simply the disease's prevalence in the general population. But what if you considered the following questions:
- How much genetic code do A and B share if they are third cousins?
- If you suddenly knew that B has Huntington's disease, what is the new probability for A?
- What is the disease probability for A's children, given how much genetic code they share with B?
When I'd initially written about decision trees, it did not at all occur to me at the time how this stuff was so familiar to me already!
Apply a little Bayesian strategy to these questions and your mind is suddenly filled with all kinds of probability questions ripe for decision tree analysis:
- If the genetic test I utilize to detect Huntington's disease has a false-positive rate x and a false-negative rate y, now what is the probability for A?
- If the pre-test likelihood is m and the post-test likelihood is n, now what is the probability for A?
I find it truly amazing how so many geneticists and genetic counselors accomplish such complex calculations using decision trees without even realizing it! Don't you 🙂 ?
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
Why Equivalence Studies Are So Fascinating
Objectives and talking points:
- To recap basic concepts of hypothesis testing in scientific experiments. Readers should read-up on hypothesis testing in reference works.
- To contrast drug vs. placebo and drug vs. standard drug study designs.
- To contrast non-equivalence and equivalence studies.
- To understand implications of these study designs, in terms of interpreting study results.
Howdy readers! Today I'm going to share with you some very interesting concepts from a fabulous book that I finished recently – "Designing Clinical Research – An Epidemiologic Approach" by Stephen Hulley et al. The book speaks fairly early on, on what are called "equivalence studies". Equivalence studies are truly fascinating. Let's see how.
When a new drug is tested for efficacy, there are multiple ways for us to do so.
A Non-equivalence Study Of Drug vs. Placebo
A drug can be compared to something that doesn't have any treatment effect whatsoever – a 'placebo'. Examples of placebos include sugar tablets, distilled water, inert substances, etc. Because pharmaceutical companies try hard to make drugs that have a treatment effect and that are thus different from placebos, the objective of such a comparison is to answer the following question:
Is the new drug any different from the placebo?
Note the emphasis on 'any different'. As is usually the case, a study of this kind is designed to test for differences between drug and placebo effects in both directions1. That is:
Is the new drug better than the placebo?
Is the new drug worse than the placebo?
The boolean operator 'OR', is key here.
Since we can not conduct such an experiment on all people in the target 'population' (eg. all people with diabetes from the whole country), we conduct it on a random and representative 'sample' of this population (eg. randomly selected diabetes patients from the whole country). Because of this, we can not directly extrapolate our findings to the target population without doing some fancy roundabout thinking and a lot of voodoo first – a.k.a. 'hypothesis testing'. Hypothesis testing is crucial to take in to account random chance (error) effects that might have crept in to the experiment.
In this experiment:
- The null hypothesis is that the drug and the placebo DO NOT differ in the real world2.
- The alternative hypothesis is that the drug and the placebo DO differ in the real world.
So off we go, with our experiment with an understanding that our results might be influenced by random chance (error) effects. Say that, before we start, we take the following error rates to be acceptable:
- Even if the null hypothesis is true in the real world, we would find that the drug and the placebo DO NOT differ only 95% of the time, purely by random chance. [Although this rate doesn't have a name, it is equal to (1 – Type 1 error)].
- Even if the null hypothesis is true in the real world, we would find that the drug and the placebo DO differ 5% of the time, purely by random chance. [This rate is also called our Type 1 error, or critical level of significance, or critical α level, or critical 'p' value].
- Even if the alternative hypothesis is true in the real world, we would find that the drug and the placebo DO differ only 80% of the time, purely by random chance. [This rate is also called the 'Power' of the experiment. It is equal to (1 – Type 2 error)].
- Even if the alternative hypothesis is true in the real world, we would find that the drug and the placebo DO NOT differ 20% of the time, purely by random chance. [This rate is also called our Type 2 error].
The strategy of the experiment is this:
If we are able to accept these error rates and show in our experiment that the null hypothesis is false (that is 'reject' it), the only other hypothesis left on the table is the alternative hypothesis. This has then, GOT to be true and we thus 'accept' the alternative hypothesis.
Q: With what degree of uncertainty?
A: With the uncertainty that we might arrive at such a conclusion 5% of the time, even if the null hypothesis is true in the real world.
Q: In English please!
A: With the uncertainty that we might arrive at a conclusion that the drug DOES differ from the placebo 5% of the time, even if the drug DOES NOT differ from the placebo in the real world.
Our next question would be:
Q: How do we reject the null hypothesis?
A: We proceed by initially assuming that the null hypothesis is true in the real world (i.e. Drug effect DOES NOT differ from Placebo effect in the real world). We then use a 'test of statistical significance' to calculate the probability of observing a difference in treatment effect in the real world, as large or larger than that actually observed in the experiment. If this probability is <5%, we reject the null hypothesis. We do this with the belief that such a conclusion is within our pre-selected margin of error. Our pre-selected margin of error, as mentioned previously, is that we would be wrong about rejecting the null hypothesis 5% of the time (our Type 1 error rate)3.
If we fail to show that this calculated probability is <5%, we 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis and conclude that a difference in effect has not been proven4.
A lot of scientific literature out there is riddled with drug vs. placebo studies. This kind of thing is good if we do not already have an effective drug for our needs. Usually though, we already have a standard drug that we know works well. It is of more interest to see how a new drug compares to our standard drug.
A Non-equivalence Study Of Drug vs. Standard Drug
These studies are conceptually the same as drug vs. placebo studies and the same reasoning for inference is applied. These studies ask the following question:
Is the new drug any different than the standard drug?
Note the emphasis on 'any different'. As is often the case, a study of this kind is designed to test the difference between the two drugs in both directions1. That is:
Is the new drug better than the standard drug?
Is the new drug worse than the standard drug??
Again, the boolean operator 'OR', is key here.
In this kind of experiment:
- The null hypothesis is that the new drug and the standard drug DO NOT differ in the real world2.
- The alternative hypothesis is that the new drug and the standard drug DO differ in the real world.
Exactly like we discussed before, we initially assume that the null hypothesis is true in the real world (i.e. the new drug's effect DOES NOT differ from the standard drug's effect in the real world). We then use a 'test of statistical significance' to calculate the probability of observing a difference in treatment effect in the real world, as large or larger than that actually observed in the experiment. If this probability is <5%, we reject the null hypothesis – with the belief that such a conclusion is within our pre-selected margin of error. Just to repeat ourselves here, our pre-selected margin of error, is that we would be wrong about rejecting the null hypothesis 5% of the time (our Type 1 error rate)3.
If we fail to show that this calculated probability is <5%, we 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis and conclude that a difference in effect has not been proven4.
An Equivalence Study Of Drug vs. Standard Drug
Sometimes all you want is a drug that is as good as the standard drug. This can be for various reasons – the standard drug is just too expensive, just too difficult to manufacture, just too difficult to administer, … and so on. Whereas the new drug might not have these undesirable qualities yet retain the same treatment effect.
In an equivalence study, the incentive is to prove that the two drugs are the same. Like we did before, let's explicitly formulate our two hypotheses:
- The null hypothesis is that the new drug and the standard drug DO NOT differ in the real world2.
- The alternative hypothesis is that the new drug and the standard drug DO differ in the real world.
We are mainly interested in proving the null hypothesis. Since this can't be done4, we'll be content with 'failing to reject' the null hypothesis. Our strategy is to design a study powerful enough to detect a difference close to 0 and then 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis. In doing so, although we can't 'prove' for sure that the null hypothesis is true, we can nevertheless be more comfortable saying that it in fact is true.
In order to detect a difference close to 0, we have to increase the Power of the study from the usual 80% to something like 95% or higher. We wan't to maximize power to detect the smallest difference possible. Usually though, it's enough if we are able to detect the the largest difference that doesn't have clinical meaning (eg: a difference of 4mm on a BP measurement). This way we can compromise a little on Power and choose a less extreme figure, say 88% or something.
And then just as in our previous examples, we proceed with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true in the real world. We then use a 'test of statistical significance' to calculate the probability of observing a difference in treatment effect in the real world, as large or larger than that actually observed in the experiment. If this probability is <5%, we reject the null hypothesis – with the belief that such a conclusion is within our pre-selected margin of error. And to repeat ourselves yet again (boy, do we like doing this 😛 ), our pre-selected margin of error is that we would be wrong about rejecting the null hypothesis 5% of the time (our Type 1 error rate)3.
If we fail to show that this calculated probability is <5%, we 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis and conclude that although a difference in effect has not been proven, we can be reasonably comfortable saying that there is in fact no difference in effect.
So Where Are The Gotchas?
If your study isn't designed or conducted properly (eg: without enough power, inadequate sample size, improper randomization, loss of subjects to followup, inaccurate measurements, etc.) you might end up 'failing to reject' the null hypothesis whereas if you had taken the necessary precautions, this might not have happened and you would have come to the opposite conclusion. Purely because of random chance (error) effects. Such improper study designs usually dampen any obvious differences in treatment effect in the experiment.
In a non-equivalence study, researchers, whose incentive it is to reject the null hypothesis, are thus forced to make sure that their designs are rigorous.
In an equivalence study, this isn't the case. Since researchers are motivated to 'fail to reject' the null hypothesis from the get go, it becomes an easy trap to conduct a study with all kinds of design flaws and very conveniently come to the conclusion that one has 'failed to reject' the null hypothesis!
Hence, it is extremely important, more so in equivalence studies than in non-equivalence studies, to have a critical and alert mind during all phases of the experiment. Interpreting an equivalence study published in a journal is hard, because one needs to know the very guts of everything the research team did!
Even though we have discussed these concepts with drugs as an example, you could apply the same reasoning to many other forms of treatment interventions.
Hope you've found this post interesting 🙂 . Do send in your suggestions, corrections and comments!
Adios for now!
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
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1. An alternative hypothesis for such a study is called a 'two-tailed alternative hypothesis'. A study that tests for differences in only one direction has an alternative hypothesis that is called a 'one-tailed alternative hypothesis'.
2. This situation is a good example of a 'null' hypothesis also being a 'nil' hypothesis. A null hypothesis is usually a nil hypothesis, but it's important to realize that this isn't always the case.
4. Note that we never use the term, 'accept the null hypothesis'.
Does Changing Your Anwer In The Exam Help?
The Monty Hall Paradox
One of the 3 doors hides a car. The other two hide a goat each. In search of a new car, the player picks a door, say 1. The game host then opens one of the other doors, say 3, to reveal a goat and offers to let the player pick door 2 instead of door 1. Is there an advantage if the the player decides to switch? (Courtesy: Wikipedia)
Hola amigos! Yes, I'm back! It's been eons and I'm sure many of you may have been wondering why I was MIA. Let's just say it was academia as usual.
This post is unique as it's probably the first where I've actually learned something from contributors and feedback. A very critical audience and pure awesome discussion. The main thrust was going to be an analysis of the question, "If you had to pick an answer in an MCQ randomly, does changing your answer alter the probabilities to success?" and it was my hope to use decision trees to attack the question. I first learned about decision trees and decision analysis in Dr. Harvey Motulsky's great book, "Intuitive Biostatistics". I do highly recommend his book. As I pondered over the question, I drew a decision tree that I extrapolated from his book. Thanks to initial feedback from BrownSandokan (my venerable computer scientist friend from yore :P) and Dr. Motulsky himself, who was so kind as to write back to just a random reader, it turned out that my diagram was wrong and so was the original analysis. The problem with the original tree (that I'm going to maintain for other readers to see and reflect on here) was that the tree in the book is specifically for a math (or rather logic) problem called the Monty Hall Paradox. You can read more about it here. As you can see, the Monty Hall Paradox is a special kind of unequal conditional probability problem, in which knowing something for sure, influences the probabilities of your guesstimates. It's a very interesting problem, and has bewildered thousands of people, me included. When it was originally circulated in a popular magazine, "nearly 1000 PhDs" (cf. Wikipedia) wrote back to say that the solution put forth was wrong, prompting numerous psychoanalytical studies to understand human behavior. A decision tree for such a problem is conceptually different from a decision tree for our question and so my original analysis was incorrect.
So what the heck are decision trees anyway? They are basically conceptual tools that help you make the right decisions given a couple of known probabilities. You draw a line to represent a decision, and explicitly label it with a corresponding probability. To find the final probability for a number of decisions (or lines) in sequence, you multiply or add their individual probabilities. It takes skill and a critical mind to build a correct tree, as I learned. But once you have a tree in front of you, its easier to see the whole picture.
Let's just ignore decision trees completely for the moment and think in the usual sense. How good an idea is it to change an answer on an MCQ exam such as the USMLE? The Kaplan lecture notes will tell you that your chances of being correct are better off if you don't. Let's analyze this. If every question has 1 correct option and 4 incorrect options (the total number of options being 5), then any single try on a random choice gives you a probability of 20% for the correct choice and 80% for the incorrect choice. The odds are higher that on any given attempt, you'll get the answer wrong. If your choice was correct the first time, it still doesn't change these basic odds. You are still likely to pick the incorrect choice 80% of the time. Borrowing from the concept of "regression towards the mean" (repeated measurements of something, yield values closer to said thing's mean), we can apply the same reasoning to this problem. Since the outcomes in question are categorical (binomial to be exact), the measure of central tendency used is the Mode (defined as the most commonly or frequently occurring thing in a series). In a categorical series – cat, dog, dog, dog, cat – the mode is 'dog'. Since the Mode in this case happens to be the category "incorrect", if you pick a random answer and repeat this multiple times, you are more likely to pick an incorrect answer! See, it all make sense 🙂 ! It's not voodoo after all 😀 !
Coming back to decision analysis, just as there's a way to prove the solution to the Monty Hall Paradox using decision trees, there's also a way to prove our point on the MCQ problem using decision trees. While I study to polish my understanding of decision trees, building them for either of these problems will be a work in progress. And when I've figured it all out, I'll put them up here. A decision tree for the Monty Hall Paradox can be accessed here.
To end this post, I'm going to complicate our main question a little bit and leave it out in the void. What if on your initial attempt you have no idea which of the answers is correct or incorrect but on your second attempt, your mind suddenly focuses on a structure flaw in one or more of the options? Assuming that an option with a structure flaw can't be correct, wouldn't this be akin to Monty showing the goat? One possible structure flaw, could be an option that doesn't make grammatical sense when combined with the stem of the question. Does that mean you should switch? Leave your comments below!
Hope you've found this post interesting. Adios for now!
Copyright © Firas MR. All rights reserved.
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Intuitive Biostatistics, by Harvey Motulsky
The Monty Hall Problem: The Remarkable Story Of Math's Most Contentious Brain Teaser, by Jason Rosenhouse
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USMLE Scores – Debunking Common Myths
Lot's of people have misguided notions as to the true nature of USMLE scores and what exactly they represent. In my opinion, this occurs in part due to a lack of interest in understanding the logistic considerations of the exam. Another contributing factor could be the bordering brainless, mentally zero-ed scientific culture most exam goers happen to be cultivated in. Many if not most of these candidates, in their naive wisdoms got into Medicine hoping to rid themselves of numerical burdens forever!
The following, I hope, will help debunk some of these common myths.
Percentile? Uh…what percentile?
This myth is without doubt, the king of all 🙂 . It isn't uncommon that you find a candidate basking in the self-righteous glory of having scored a '99 percent' or worse, a '99 percentile'. The USMLE at one point used to provide percentile scores. That stopped sometime in the mid to late '90s. Why? Well, the USMLE organization believed that scores were being unduly given more weightage than they ought to in medics' careers. This test is a licensure exam, period. That has always been the motto. Among other things, when residency programs started using the exam as a yard stick to differentiate and rank students, the USMLE saw this as contrary to its primary purpose and said enough is enough. To make such rankings difficult, the USMLE no longer provides percentile scores to exam takers.
The USMLE does have an extremely detailed FAQ on what the 2-digit (which people confuse as a percentage or percentile) and 3-digit scores mean. I strongly urge all test-takers to take a hard look at it and ponder about some of the stuff said therein.
Simply put, the way the exam is designed, it measures a candidate's level of knowledge and provides a 3-digit score with an important import. This 3-digit score is an unfiltered indication of an individual's USMLE know-how, that in theory shouldn't be influenced by variations in the content of the exam, be it across space (another exam center and/or questions from a different content pool) or time (exam content from the future or past). This means that provided a person's knowledge remains constant, he or she should in theory, achieve the same 3-digit score regardless of where and when he or she took the test. Or, supposedly so. The minimum 3-digit score that is required to 'pass' the exam is revised on an annual basis to preserve this space-time independent nature of the score. For the last couple of years, the passing score has hovered around 185. A 'pass' score makes you eligible to apply for a license.
What then is the 2-digit score? For god knows what reason, the Federation of State Medical Boards (these people provide medics in the US, licenses based on their USMLE scores) has a 2-digit format for a 'pass' score on the USMLE exam. Unlike the 3-digit score this passing score is fixed at 75 and isn't revised every year.
How does one convert a 3-digit score to a 2-digit score? The exact conversion algorithm hasn't been disclosed (among lots of other things). But for matters of simplicity, I'm going to use a very crude approach to illustrate:
Equate the passing 3-digit score to 75. So if the passing 3-digit score is 180, then 180 = 75. 185 = 80, 190 = 85 … and so on.
I'm sure the relationship isn't linear as shown above. For one, by very definition, a 2-digit score ends at 99. 100 is a 3-digit number! So let's see what happens with our example above:
190 = 85, 195 = 90, 199 = 99. We've reached the 2-digit limit at this point. Any score higher than 199 will also be equated to 99. It doesn't matter if you scored a 240 or 260 on the 3 digit scale. You immediately fall under the 99 bracket along with the lesser folk!
These distortions and constraints make the 2-digit score an unjust system to rank test-takers and today, most residency programs use the 3-digit score to compare people. Because the 3-digit to 2-digit scale conversion changes every year, it makes sense to stick to the 3-digit scale which makes comparisons between old-timers and new-timers possible, besides the obvious advantage in helping comparisons between candidates who deal/dealt with different exam content.
Making Assumptions And Approximate Guesses
The USMLE does provide Means and Standard Deviations on students' score cards. But these statistics don't strictly apply to them because they are derived from different test populations. The score card specifically mentions that these statistics are "for recent" instances of the test.
Each instance of an exam is directed at a group of people which form its test population. Each population has its own characteristics such as whether or not it's governed by Gaussian statistics, whether there is skew or kurtosis in its distribution, etc. The summary statistics such as the mean and standard deviation will also vary between different test populations. So unless you know the exact summary statistics and the nature of the distribution that describes the test population from which a candidate comes, you can't possibly assign him/her a percentile rank. And because Joe and Jane can be from two entirely different test populations, percentiles in the end don't carry much meaning. It's that simple folks.
You could however make assumptions and arbitrary conclusions about percentile ranks though. Say for argument sake, all populations have a mean equal to 220 and a standard deviation equal to 20 and conform to Gaussian statistics. Then a 3-digit score of:
220 = 50th percentile
220 + 20 = 84th percentile
220 + 20 + 20 = 97th percentile
[Going back to our '99 percentile' myth and with the specific example we used, don't you see how a score equal to 260 (with its 2-digit 99 equivalent) still doesn't reach the 99 percentile? It's amazing how severely people can delude themselves. A 99 percentile rank is no joke and I find it particularly fascinating to observe how hundreds of thousands of people ludicrously claim to have reached this magic rank with a 2-digit 99 score. I mean, doesn't the sheer commonality hint that something in their thinking is off?]
This calculator makes it easy to calculate a percentile based on known Mean and Standard Deviations for Gaussian distributions. Just enter the values for Mean and Standard Deviation on the left, and in the 'Probability' field enter a percentile value in decimal form (97th percentile corresponds to 0.97 and so forth). Hit the 'Compute x' button and you will be given the corresponding value of 'x'.
99th Percentile Ain't Cake
Another point of note about a Gaussian distribution:
The distance from the 0th percentile to the 25th percentile is also equal to the distance between the 75th and 100th percentile. Let's say this distance is x. The distance between the 25th percentile and the 50th percentile is also equal to the distance between the 50th percentile and the 75th percentile. Let's say this distance is y.
It so happens that x>>>y. In a crude sense, this means that it is disproportionately tougher for you to score extreme values than to stay closer to the mean. Going from a 50th percentile baseline, scoring a 99th percentile is disproportionately tougher than scoring a 75th percentile. If you aim to score a 99 percentile, you're gonna have to seriously sweat it out!
It's the interval, stupid
Say there are infinite clones of you existent in this world and you're all like the Borg. Each of you is mentally indistinguishable from the other – possessing ditto copies of USMLE knowhow. Say that each of you took the USMLE and then we plot the frequencies of these scores on a graph. We're going to end up with a Gaussian curve depicting this sample of clones, with its own mean score and standard deviation. This process is called 'parametric sampling' and the distribution obtained is called a 'sampling distribution'.
The idea behind what we just did is to determine the variation that we would expect in scores even if knowhow remained constant – either due to a flaw in the test or by random chance.
The standard deviation of a sampling distribution is also called 'standard error'. As you'll probably learn during your USMLE preparation, knowing the standard error helps calculate what are called 'confidence intervals'.
A confidence interval for a given score can be calculated as follows (using the Z-statistic):-
True score = Measured score +/- 1.96 (standard error of measurement) … for 95% confidence
True score = Measured score +/- 2.58 (standard error of measurement) … for 99% confidence
For many recent tests, the standard error for the 3-digit scale has been 6 [Every score card quotes a certain SEM (Standard Error of Measurment) for the 3-digit scale]. This means that given a measured score of 240, we can be 95% certain that the true value of your performance lies between a low of 240 – 1.96 (6) and a high of 240 + 1.96 (6). Similarly we can say with 99% confidence that the true score lies between 240 – 2.58 (6) and 240 + 2.58 (6). These score intervals are probablistically flat when graphed – each true score value within the intervals calculated has an equal chance of being the right one.
What this means is that, when you compare two individuals and see their scores side by side, you ought to consider what's going on with their respective confidence intervals. Do they overlap? Even a nanometer of overlapping between CIs makes the two, statistically speaking, indistinguishable, even if in reality there is a difference. As far as the test is concerned, when two CIs overlap, the test failed to detect any difference between these two individuals (some statisticians disagree. How to interpret statistical significance when two or more CIs overlap is still a matter of debate! I've used the view of the authors of the Kaplan lecture notes here). Capiche?
Beating competitors by intervals rather than pinpoint scores is a good idea to make sure you really did do better than them. The wider the distance separating two CIs, the larger is the difference between them.
There's a special scenario that we need to think about here. What about the poor fellow who just missed the passing mark? For a passing mark of 180, what of the guy who scored, say 175? Given a standard error of 6, his 95% CI definitely does include 180 and there is no statistically significant (using a 5% margin of doubt) difference between him and another guy who scored just above 180. Yet this guy failed while the other passed! How do we account for this? I've been wondering about it and I think that perhaps, the pinpoint cutoffs for passing used by the USMLE exist as a matter of practicality. Using intervals to decide passing/failing results might be tedious, and maybe scientific endeavor ends at this point. Anyhow, I leave this question out in the void with the hope that it sparks discussions and clarifications.
If you care to give it a thought, the graphical subject-wise profile bands on the score card are actually confidence intervals (95%, 99% ?? I don't know). This is why the score card clearly states that if any two subject-wise profile bands overlap, performance in these subjects should be deemed equal.
I hope you've found this post interesting if not useful. Please feel free to leave behind your valuable suggestions, corrections, remarks or comments. Anything 🙂 !
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User friendliness in focus
The most well-known and successful fully automatic channel baler in Europe - the KONTI from PAAL - has been on the market for over 40 years. This enormous experience and consistent further development have now given rise to the latest incarnation - the KONTI i-series.
Combining the product ranges KONTI and LIKON into a single KONTI i-series – with vertical, horizontal or crosswise tying system - is intended to help the customers to better understand the very large product range from PAAL. The name of the premium brand was modified as follows:
- KONTI with vertical tying system: KONTI V xxx i (xxx for size - such as 275)
- KONTI with horizontal tying system: KONTI H xxx i (in the past LIKON)
- KONTI with crosswise tying: KONTI X xxx i
The key aspect in the development of the new KONTI series was on user friendliness:
The self-explanatory, app-oriented operator interface makes the handling clear and simple.
A multifunctional signal lamp is fitted to control cabinet for visualization of different operating condition (automatic mode, general warning, fault indication, etc.). The optimised maintenance platform of vertical tying unit improves the access and a new remote service system RSS (in basic machine) allows remote assistance from the factory.
Maintenance and service
The central, easy reachable lubrication system for channel adjustment bolts facilitate the maintenance as well as the central lubrication point for the wire cutter system facilitated the greasing and reduces the time. The robust, cost-efficient twisters with HARDOX hooks offer easier and quick replacement. Exploded drawings of the spare part list offer a quick and easy spare part identification. New wire guidings with improved wear protection for less service operation.
Further features of the KONTI i:
A wire pushing system for the lower wires for even higher reliability.
Noise level reduction at the ram scraper and the retaining fingers<- Back to: communications


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Valentine's Day. The holiday of chocolates, flowers, jewelry and…oh, right, love. Well, love might still remain a constant, but the first three probably haven't been in the highest demand for a few years (or decades). Tech makes the world go round these days, so if you want to impress your sweetheart this Valentine's Day (or if you need to drop some subtle or not-so-subtle hints), here's a list of the hottest tech for Cupid's Day 2011.
Pop the Question Ring
Valentine's Day is prime time for popping the question. Of course, just the thought of the question is enough to said most people into a panic. It's no surprise; pressure pours out of the idea, especially of the ring decision. Every detail needs to be exactly right, and sometimes, you feel like you just need to ask the other person to be sure. Now you can have your wedding cake and eat it, too, with the Pop the Question Ring. It's a simple, elegant silver ring that comes in a nice, attractive display box, and serves one purpose: to make the question happen. Your fiance-to-be gets to pick the ring they want, and you don't need to lose hair over the ring decision. For only about $75, it's a win-win! As long as they say yes, of course.
Winking Heart Emoticon Paperweight
If you just can't find the right words for your lover this Valentine's Day, try something a little more direct. You can get this heart paperweight bearing the ever-enigmatic, yet always understood, winking emoticon for your significant other. People looking in from the outside might not get what's going on, but your partner will get your drift immediately, and isn't that all that matters? You can get this coy paperweight for $12.99.
Red iPod Nano
For Valentine's Day this year, get a gift with a little more meaning than usual. An iPod Nano of any color will undoubtedly be loved by anyone, but giving a special edition red iPod Nano will go a long way toward making millions of people around the world happier, too. Like all (PRODUCT) RED items available for purchase, 50% of the gross profit made off each sale will go towards HIV prevention programs in Africa. It's the perfect color for a Valentine's Day gift, and you'll be sharing the love across continents, not just between you and your sweetheart. The iPod Nano currently retails at $149 for the 8 GB version and $179 for the 16 GB version.
8-Bit Dynamic Life Shirt
Ever feel a little depleted when you're away from your sweetheart for a little bit too long? Maybe you hear frantic beeping in your head telling you that something is terribly wrong. Maybe you get a little short of breath. Maybe you get a little thirsty for milk. Whatever happens, you can now show off to the world exactly how you and your significant feel about being apart with these matching life bar shirts. Each one has six hearts; when the two are apart, only two and a half hearts are lit, but when two lovers reunite, both shirts (and people) are brought back to full health. It's the perfect geek gift for the season of love, and you can get a pair for between $17.99 and $24.99.
Toshiba CAMILEO S30
Capture the memories of you and your significant other wherever you go with the Camileo S30, a super sleek camcorder that you can take pretty much anywhere. It's roughly the size and thickness of any smartphone you'll find on the market today, but it packs a lot of technical prowess into that small frame. It comes with 1920x1080p HD video, 16x digital zoom, and video stabilization. The Camileo also has the standard range of camcorder tools: macro, motion detection, slow motion, time lapse and pre-record. There's even a one-touch upload button made with social media sites in mind. It's SD card compatible, and comes with a mini-tripod, for serious camera work. At $179.99, it's a pretty good deal for a fully functional camcorder that is so wonderfully easily to carry around.
Case-Mate Do-it-Yourself iPhone 4 Case
Nothing says "I love you" more than giving a personalized gift for Valentine's Day, and doing that while protecting a prized possession of any techie is sure to win big points, too. You can upload any image that you have (preferably one of you and your love smiling together somewhere nice) to Case-Mate's online application, and they'll ship you the finished result, a sleek, form-fitting iPhone 4 case bearing the image that you submitted. Your one-of-a-kind iPhone case can be on its way to you for $34.99.
Sony Vaio Sangria Red
This Valentine's Day, make an impact with a gift that weighs hardly anything at all. This Sangria Red Sony Vaio, a limited edition version of the Y21SFX model, is a laptop that serves up every basic need your sweetheart could think of: 8 GB RAM, 500 GB hard drive, built-in camera and microphone, and a 1.20 GHz processor. Plus, it's the perfect color for the season, with a brilliant, beautiful sangria red finish. Get this featherweight laptop for just $789.99. Besides, you can never go wrong with an up-to-date laptop as a gift; it's a quantifiable need in these times.
Wii Hardware Bundle Red
The ever-popular Nintendo Wii is still guaranteed to be a hit as a gift, even now, well after four years since its release. Inject a little Valentine's Day spirit to the classic techie gift with this red Wii bundle, which includes the system, a red Wiimote and Nunchuk with red rubber case for the Wiimote, Wii Sports and New Super Mario Bros Wii. It's a gift you and your sweetheart can share for years to come. You can waggle your way into your significant other's heart for about $200 off Amazon.
Little Big Planet 2
Creativity in gifts goes a long way. Maybe giving a video game lacks in that department, but Little Big Planet 2 makes up for it with the endless amount of creativity the game itself allows. Besides, with Sackboy as the mascot, the cuteness factor is sure to play a role in winning the heart of your loved one this Valentine's Day. Of course, the truly bold can make their own custom level reflecting the depths of their love for their one and only prior to the giving of the gift, and with Little Big Planet 2, the possibilities for that are practically endless. You can pick it up new for $59.99.
Prada Nylon iPad Case
How best to carry around the semi-mobile iPad is a pressing problem, as more and people become owners of Apple's latest juggernaut. That problem can be put to rest emphatically, as you can now carry around your iPad in overflowing amounts of style with this Prada nylon iPad case. It comes in the Valentine's Day traditional red and pink, with ample padding, an interior pocket, and the iconic Prada logo. If fashion is everything for you, drop a few hints for this gem, but make sure you drop them well; the Prada nylon iPad case runs for $420.
For the audiophile in your life who isn't a fan of traditional speakers, check out the iPom speaker system. You can play music straight off a flash drive or an SD card, or from an iPod. Don't let the fun, pomegranate and flower design fool you, though; this is a well-equipped speaker system ready to deliver 360 degrees of sound, and sports a 12W subwoofer. It's also got touch volume control, and can be hooked up to any other electronic media in the house to serve as a set of external speakers. You and your sweetheart can play your song on repeat with the iPom for $99.99.
Victorinox Secure SSD
It might look like a standard flash drive, but this piece of tech is hardly that. This is the world's smallest solid state drive, offering storage starting at 64 GB, and coming in models of up to 512 GB. All of that storage is stuffed into a drive that fits inside a Swiss Army Knife (early looks say it comes along with a small knife, a pair of scissors, a screwdriver, and a file, as well). The drives are all fully encrypted, and come with an e-ink display listing the owner's name and capacity left (although the former can be personalized, maybe with a short message of love just for the holiday). It's USB compatible, and can hook into an eSATA II port, too. Pricing options aren't available yet, but it sounds like this gift won't be a cheap one.
The Euricase Classic LCD Ring Box
The humble ring box is often forgotten in the furore of the wedding, Sure, the ring itself gets used, but all too often that duck egg (well, lucky girls get Tiffany) blue box lies discarded on the dresser, hinting at the happiness that once lay within. Why not incorporate your ring box into your wedded bliss- this I exactly what the Euricase LCD ringbox was created for. Brushed metal makes it look like s all jewel in the hand, and the inside features an LCD video screen that can be loaded with those favorite romantic moments, from videos of happy times, to photos of your favorite places. Music can be synchronized to play when you open it- what better way to share 'your song' to the world, or make sure the 'Yes' moment has a good beat? The ring nestles in the centre of the box, highlighted by a soft glowing light around the ring bed and it runs off a lithium ion battery. It has the capability for up to 60minutes of low res video footage, so it's the gift that keeps on giving 9though you'd get odd looks using it as a PMP). What better way to start a geeky life together?
There are a variety to choose from and they cost from £40-$250.
The USB Engagement Ring
Jennifer Flume is one creative cookie, and she came up with an idea to show just how couples in love actually connect. Her concept (sigh) USB rings can connect to each other, or to a necklace that includes USB port, showing that love can be worldwide and shared. This is a very sweet idea, and aims to change the understanding of how people relate to each other- touching rings, rather than a handshake for example. They function as USB sticks in their own right, so tokens of love or happy photos can be kept on them, and digitally carried at all times. Add a few diamonds and I might just say yes to this!
Taste the Geek (with a cake)
Geek cakes have existed ever since someone first added yellow food colouring to icing sugar (Pacman, anyone) but in years the level of artistry has evolved to something truly spectacular. A geeky wedding cake is the perfect way to show everyone how much you both have in common and display your love of Warcraft/Mario/Rayman to the world. The beauty above is created by Let them Eat Cake who specialize in creating custom cakes for weddings, and will work with the clients to make sure they have something that exactly symbolizes just what they want. It might just break your heart to slice it though…
Red Heart Pillow
My heart pounds for you this Valentine's Day or atleast my pillow does. This unique pillow is unlike something you will find at Pier 1. Just tap the heart-shaped pillow to turn it on and watch it glow in a pulsating manner. So this Valentine's Day – get a box of chocolates, some wine, and turn off the lights…you have a date with a very handsome heart-shaped pillow that glows for you. The Red Heart Pillow retails for $39.99 from Gadgets and Gear.


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Pacific All Natural Shaving Cream
With natural and certified organic ingredients, Pacific Shaving Company's unique, low-lather formula is about to become your skin's best friend. But this isn't only about closer shaves - it's got you covered before, during and after. Here's that you can expect: Softer whiskers and superior lubrication Healthy, hydrated and soothed skin Protection from harsh environmental factors A little goes a long way. This small but mighty 3 oz. tube will last up to 100 shaves, keeping your skin smooth and supple. Product of the U.S.A. 3 OZ (89g)
Ingredients: Organic Aloe Barbadensis Leaf Juice, Potassium Myristate, Potassium Stearate, Sodium Myristate, Sodium Stearate, Glycerin, Organic Helianthus Annuus (Sunflower) Seed Oil, Butryospermum Parkii (Shea Butter), Organic Camellia Sinensis (White Tea) Extract, Organic Camellia Oleifera (Green Tea) Extract, Organic Calendula Officinalis Flower Extract, Organic Chamomilla Recuita (Matricaria) Extract, Organic Lavandula Angustifolia (Lavender) Extract, Organic Prunus Amygdalus Dulcis (Sweet Almond) Fruit Extract, Organic Symphytum Officinate (Comfrey) Extract, Organic Trifolium Pretense (Clover) Extract, Tocopheryl Acetate, Cholecalciferol, Retinyl Palmitate, Organic Althea Officinalis (Marshmallow) Root Extract, Organic Avena Sativa (Oat) Kernel Extract, Sea Mays (Corn) Oil, Hydroxyethycellulose, Sorbic Acid, Organic Citrus Aurantium Dulcis (Orange) Peel Oil


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Have you ever experienced a miracle? Do you want to experience one today?
One such lady was hoping for a miracle and hoped against hope she would get one that day. She had a medical condition that led her to a tremendous loss of blood for 12 years.
Blood is sacred, the representation of life to the Jews back then. Every part of her life was probably affected by this illness and she felt like she was withering away.
She already went from doctor to doctor only to make things worse. She was not afraid of being ridiculed for going with the throngs to see someone to whom she pinned all her hopes on. Jesus. With one touch of His cloak she was instantly healed! A miracle.
- Luke 8:43-47
The lady's experience is in the realm of the supernatural. She taught me 2 lessons if I want to receive a miracle.
The first lesson is faith. I have to believe to receive a miracle. Jesus was not asked for a miracle. His power just instantly worked on the woman's healing without Him willing it. He said to her "Daughter, your faith has healed you. Go in peace'". Without us believing the miracle can happen, it won't.
Only in his hometown, among his relatives and in his own house is a prophet without honor." 5He could not do any miracles there, except lay his hands on a few sick people and heal them. 6And he was amazed at their lack of faith.(Mark 6)
The second lesson is that we have to touch Jesus. The woman had to fight her way through the crowd to get to Jesus. It was uncomfortable, it wasn't an easy task specially for someone who was sick. Jesus is still the source of the miracles, everything good in this life.
Who can we touch to be healed today? Jesus in His distressing disguise for me is the poor, the sick, the ugly, the depressed, the tiresome. If you touch that aunt who's always grumpy, the street person who always asks for some change, or visit those in prison, you're touching Jesus.
"whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers of mine, you did for me." (Matthew 25:40)
When we touch Jesus, we get our miracle.
I pray for you who need a miracle today, for greater faith (that only God's grace can give) and for the opportunity to touch Jesus.


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Unprecedented expansion and consolidation in key German cities has become an advantage for brand-affiliated hoteliers and local and foreign investors.
REPORT FROM GERMANY—Germany is enjoying an eight-year growth spurt in key destinations, accompanied by steady hikes in overnight stays, operating profit and foreign travelers, according to sources.
The German Hotel Association, known in Germany by its German initials IHA, said 695 new, renovated and expanded properties are expected nationwide by the end of 2018, compared with 571 in 2017.
Colliers International research states that in the first three quarters of 2018, transaction volumes in Germany equaled €2.9 billion ($3.3 billion).
Hamburg, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Berlin, Munich, Cologne and Stuttgart are the cities leading in hotel development, although growth is shifting now to secondary and even tertiary locations.
"Despite signs of overcapacities at some locations, the hotel industry will continue to expand its offerings in the coming years," said Otto Lindner, IHA chairman and CEO of family-managed Lindner Hotels & Resorts, which counts 20 German hotels in its 37 pan-Europe portfolio.
The construction boom and upturn in global investors is being accompanied by brand concentration, Lindner said, who added the number of beds is rising but the same is not true of the number of hotels. In fact, larger hotels are crowding out small units.
"We are currently experiencing an unprecedented expansion but also a wave of consolidation," Lindner said. "Corporate and brand concentration continues to increase, with more and more international investors entering the market."
Hotel investments and specialized new brand concepts are members' priorities at the moment, Linder said.
"Those concepts demand clearly defined design and guest propositions," he said. "New competitors, the digitization and the rapidly changing demands of the guests are forcing the hotel industry to constantly reorganize itself."
Changing landscape
The shifting sands present obstacles for many independent hotels, according to Stefanie Zimmermanns, a partner at Düsseldorf-based Hotel Affairs Consulting GmbH.
"The backbone of the German hotel industry, existing business travel and conference hotels in the 3- to 4-star segment are being pushed out of focus, while older hotels are facing leases that expire and weaken profitability in the midst of increasing crowding and must look to investments, upgrades and re-brandings to survive," Zimmermanns said. "Within a few years, the hotel industry turned from outsiders' to investors' darling. The industry is growing fast, and new hotels are entering the established brand landscape and conquering even so-called 'B' and 'C' locations, banking on creative new lifestyle concepts."
Zimmermanns said many "small, outdated hotels" are falling by the wayside due to being non-competitive, downgraded in category and facing revenue strife "as a result of creeping discounts."
"In German 'A' city locations alone, the number of hotel beds on the market is due to rise by 17%—70,000 beds—by 2021," she said. "Chains are going on the offensive."
According to the IHA, the number of branded hotels nationwide has risen by an average of 7.2% in the last five years.
Among them is Munich-based Ruby Hotels, which has a pipeline of approximately 1,200 rooms, all in key German markets. CEO, managing director and founder Michael Patrick Struck said the company is currently bolstering its management structure to facilitate a fast-track expansion strategy in Germany, and beyond.
Five of Ruby Hotels' properties in construction or planning are in Germany, and include a 218-room asset in Frankfurt to open in 2019 and two hotels, in Düsseldorf and Cologne, due to open in 2020.
Struck said investor interest isn't beginning to wane, at least not in Germany's hotspot cities he has his sights on.
"Our 'lean luxury' concept works particularly well in major cities, so our focus still lies with the top seven (German cities). I have not witnessed any drop in investor interest there," Struck said.
Opportunity knocks
Struck welcomes the competition.
"The current heated market rewards those who bring fresh new approaches and novel solutions, benefiting smaller, more agile players and leading to more rather than (fewer) players," Struck said.
Another group pursuing German expansion in the "A" cities is Spanish firm NH Hotel Group, which will open its fifth Hamburg property, NH Hamburg Zentrum, in 2021.
"Such an attractive hotel market is of course very interesting for further investment, and we prefer hotels in a central location to further consolidate our portfolio of long-term contracts in successful markets," said Ascan Kókai, NH's senior director of development and asset management for Northern Europe, United Kingdom and South Africa.
Struck also is not worried about the players with the most scale, such as Marriott International.
"We are a niche player, with all the competitive advantages such a focus brings … Technological advances and changes in consumer behavior are altering the success factors in our industry," he said. "Certainly, speed is becoming more important, while one could argue that size is becoming less and less so."
Tuomas Laakso, Marriott's VP of development in Germany, Austira, Switzerland and the Nordics, said his company is continuing to look for development opportunities in Germany, which he described as "safe haven for real estate investors."
"We still see potential in the top seven," he said. "They are growing, and they are strong both for business and leisure markets. 'B' and 'C' cities still constitute growth in Marriott's overall German pipeline."
As Germany's hotel supply appears set to continue, Olivia Kaussen, managing director and head CBRE Hotels Germany, predicts fiercer competition for core hotel products in prime locations.
"Investment is riding at such record highs, there is a scarcity of stock for sale in the major markets," Kaussen said, adding her "B" cities include Hanover, Leipzig and Nuremberg.
Competition is equally fraught for staff, sources admitted.
"Securing the demand for skilled workers is the most important task for the future," Lindner said.
"Nowadays you have to be lucky in the face of strong competition for talent," Struck added.


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Savage Suspends LG Campaign
Rich Savage, a Democratic political advisor in Richmond, announced today that he is dropping out of the race for lieutenant governor in November.
"The worsening economic downturn presents too great a financial hurdle for my campaign to overcome,'' Savage said in a statement.
Savage jumped into the race in January by unveiling a 10-point education plan that included tuition forgiveness for graduates who serve as teachers for five years.
"The necessity of rebuilding our state's intellectual infrastructure does not end with my campaign,'' Savage said. "I call on the candidates who remain in the race - all of them good people and capable leaders - to seize the mantle of education reform. I will certainly continue to speak out for innovative solutions to the challenges that our schools face."
Savage is the founder of Media Directions, Inc., a political advertising firm that has done work for Democratic candidates in Virginia and the nation.
Democrats who are running for lieutenant governor are former Finance Secretary Jody Wagner; Jon Bowerbank, a businessman from Russell County; Michael Signer, an attorney who served as deputy counselor to former governor Mark R. Warner; and Virginia Beach School Board member Pat Edmondson.
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) will face lawyer Patrick Muldoon for the Republican nomination.
"Over the last two months on the campaign trail I've gotten to know Rich well,'' Bowerbank said in a statement. "He is principled and hardworking, and he and I share a passion for improving Virginia's education system. I know Rich will be a great advocate for children in whatever he chooses to do next."
Anita Kumar
March 6, 2009; 10:44 AM ET
Categories: Anita Kumar , Bill Bolling , Election 2009
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Parent information, Survival Guide & Back-to-School FAQs
Whether you are new to Crocker, or your fifth child is an eighth grader, the first few weeks of school bring up many questions for parents.
The following documents noted below, were distributed at our first Parent Group Meeting of the year. In case you missed it, please print out these helpful documents:
Crocker Middle School Parent Group was organized to promote the welfare of the children attending Crocker and to encourage cooperation among parents, teachers, administrators and of the trustees of Hillsborough School Board. It is a part of the Associated Parents' Groups of Hillsborough (APG). All Crocker parents or guardians are members of the Parent Group; all PG members who have paid their dues have voting rights.
At the beginning of each year, the Parent Group collects dues that support the 3 following topics:
State Testing:
The California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress system, known as CAASPP.
Looking ahead, for the school year, the new CAASPP testing program in English Language Arts and Mathematics will be fully operational for grades 3-8 (not 2nd, as in previous years). In addition, the science tests will continue to be given at grades 5 and 8. The CAPA test will not be given this year, but an alternative assessment will be field tested. More information about these tests will be forthcoming throughout the year.
If you have any questions about the test itself or your child's participation, please contact your site principal or Ms. Toni Presta, Director of Educational Services.
** Here is a list of Acronyms to help you out!
STAR (Standardized Testing and Reporting)
CST (California Standards Test)
CMA (California Modified Assessment)
CAPA (California Alternate Performance Assessment)
CAASPP (California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress)
HCSD Forward:
Visit our new HCSD Forward website by clicking https://sites.google.com/a/hcsd.info/forward/home!
There you can find documents relating to this important visioning process, a calendar of events, a blog feature allowing you to give your thoughts and input, and information about the HCSD Forward Steering Committee including: our agendas, our meeting notes, and the names and emails of our members.


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Chicago will host a new cocktail conference this spring. Called Chicago Style, it will take place May 7 to 10, after the gala for the James Beard Awards.
While the convention's format is familiar — seminars, parties and competitions for bartenders, bar owners, spirit makers and others in the industry — its philosophical mission sets it apart. The three founders, all women, plan to use the gathering to address social problems, including sexism, substance abuse and a lack of diversity, that the bar business has started to grapple with over the past year or so.
Its website sums up the mix as "equal parts think and drink."
"Where we will differ from other conferences is the diversity of our panelists and participants, and our inclusion of discussions directly addressing race, gender and sexual identity within these panel topics," said Shelby Allison, an owner of the Chicago tiki bar Lost Lake and one of the event's founders.
The other two are Caitlin Laman, the beverage director at the Ace Hotel Chicago, where many of the convention's daytime events will take place; and Sharon Bronstein, directing of marketing for the 86 Co., which makes and imports spirits.
The timing of the new convention is fortuitous, just months after the founders of Tales of the Cocktail — long the world's pre-eminent cocktail conclave, in New Orleans — stepped down after accusations of racial insensitivity. (Tales recently received new leadership: The Solomons, a prominent New Orleans philanthropic family, is set to buy the festival.) News of the Chicago event also arrives as the #MeToo movement continues to gain steam.
But the three partners began making plans early last year, before any of those developments.
"You know, the time has been right for this conversation for a long time," Ms. Allison said. "Yesterday was the right time. Five years ago was the right time. I'm so happy that movements like #MeToo are catapulting this into the national conversation. The next step in that conversation is to make workplaces happier, safer and more inclusive."
Panels will include one on the "cross section between race, gender, sexuality within the hospitality community," said Ashtin Berry, one of the panelists and beverage director of Tokyo Record Bar in New York City. Also on the panel will be Don Lee, a New York bartender and developer of barware who has long been outspoken on social issues.
Among the main events will be a party held by Trash Tiki, a group that promotes sustainability and the elimination of waste behind the bar; and the national championship of Speed Rack, a contest for female bartenders started by Ivy Mix and Lynnette Marrero. The enterprise donates about $100,000 every year to breast cancer charities.
For Ms. Marrero, the partnership with Chicago Style was a natural. "They share the same ideology as Speed Rack in many ways," she said.
Ms. Allison anticipates that many of the other festivities will take place at Chicago bars and restaurants "that have women or people of color or queer people at the helm."
"We've been here," said Nandini Khaund, the beverage director at Cindy's, a rooftop bar in the Chicago Athletic Association Hotel, who will take part in a panel. "We are brown, we are queer and you may not have noticed because the institutions are slower to acknowledge the shift in the paradigm."
The convention's intent to do things differently extends to its corporate sponsorship. Critics of cocktail conventions have complained in the past that powerful liquor conglomerates use their influence to set the agenda. Chicago Style will seek backing from the spirits industry, but on its own terms.
"We're building our programming first and then finding partners that want to support us as we are," Ms. Allison said. "We're not shying away from radical conversations."
The conference will be for-profit, with some money going to two charitable organizations: the Chicago Period Project, an organization that distributes feminine hygiene products to people in need; and the James Beard Foundation's Women Leadership Programs, which offers mentoring opportunities to women in the restaurant industry.
A full schedule of events will be released mid-February, and ticket sales begin March 1.
"We love the hospitality industry," Ms. Allison said. "As an industry, it's one that prides itself on making people welcome. There's no way we can continue to pride ourselves on inclusion if we don't also operate our businesses on that level."


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Due to a prior hair-washing engagement and general lack of attentiveness, I missed out on the third annual "SCRABBLE® with the Stars" tournament at that wonderful Renaissance Revival icon, St. Lawrence Hall. The always-intrepid Torontoist has the goods (including a link to some photos).
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