text:
Mountain Dew (Mtn Dew) KickStart / Kickstart Limeade & Kickstart Black Cherry
In this commercial for Mountain Dew (now labeled as 'Mtn Dew') Kickstart, we see a couple of guys 'kickstarting' their night by drinking Mtn Dew. There is no dialog in this ad and instead we see very exciting imagery of model rockets fireworks, with music playing through the entire ad. The song played during the commercial is "Repetition" performed by The Willowz.
Words & lyrics to the song in this television ad:
I got no beef with repetition. I'm gonna see it through and through
I got no beef with repetition. I feel the same way as you do
I feel the same way as you do. I feel the same way as you do. I feel the same way as you do
Claims made in this commercial
In the last few seconds of the ad, we see the following giant text, next to the cans of Kickstart Limeade and Black Cherry:
Some people may assume that because Kickstart contains electrolytes, drinking it will help keep them hydrated or that Mountain Dew Kickstart is a sports-drink like Gatorade. However, in very difficult to read fine print, we can see the text "electrolytes for taste" which appears to indicate that there is no health or hydration benefit to drinking Mountain Dew Kickstart.
Summary of this ad:
Some people feel the use of fine-print regarding electrolytes is an intentional attempt to trick viewers into thinking that Mountain Dew Kickstart has more health benefits than it actually has.


text:
One of the seasonal treats during the fall is the sweet tartness of freshly harvested fall apples. Whether Winesaps, Granny Smith or Red Delicious, apples have long been a mainstay of the fall season and staples of state fairs and harvest festivals for generations. Out of this harvest, fresh-pressed apple cider is a treat that delights the senses, packing a wealth of flavor in each cup. Whether its drank chilled or warmed, or with a cinnamon stick and a dash of nutmeg, apple cider is a treat for all.
Each fall our customers call to ask about cider options in their coffee shop and how they can offer this treat. There are several options available to the coffee shop to offer cider. Among these options are the dried powder mixes, fresh cider, and cider concentrates. All these are a delightful beverages whether served chilled during the warm fall days for the Southern tier of states or warmed and spiced for chilly evenings and mornings.
While all the cider sources can produce quality, great tasting drinks, we usually recommend to our customers to go local on the cider. This is a great time to visit local farmer's markets to find great tasting cider. Your local grocery may also carry it, as well. This will help your local farmers, but also has several operational advantages. Trying to judge demand for a seasonal drink is always difficult and buying smaller amounts locally allows you to better balance inventories and demands. You know your product will be fresh!
To warm cider, you can you use the frothing wand and pitcher on your espresso machine to warm it to the desired temperature and served. You can garnish with a cinnamon stick or other spices such as nutmeg. Other common additions include caramel syrup or sauce in the cider for an extra buttery sweetness. However, you should test your specific caramel flavorings and cider first. Some caramel flavorings, especially sauces, are produced using dairy products. This low acid base, when mixed in a highly acidic liquid like cider, may cause separation and discoloration of the drink. Not the best presentation in the world. Cinnamon flavoring syrup is another popular flavor to use.
Last, but not least, remember the in-store marketing for the cider. You can add some simple signage near the register or on the doors announcing the cider, as well as being liberal with sampling the first week or two. The smell of the cider warming is bound to whet the appetites of your guests and a small sample should hopefully seal the deal and generate a purchase.
Jeff Vojta
Co-founder and CEO
Stockton Graham & Co.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Safety Award
Congratulations to our Civils team, headed up by John Kearney, who have displayed and maintained exceptional safety standards on the Thameslink Key Output 2 project, coming out on top in the first two quarters of the Exceptional Safety Performance Award. Our Civils team have been present on this scheme for the best part of four years and have continued to deliver consistent levels of quality and health & safety. With year on year improvement in the awareness and implementation of behavioural safety, we have recorded zero RIDDOR and increased our Close Call reporting, both internally and via the Principal Contractor, using Balfour Beatty's Observations app (available to download free for Android and iOS). We aim to keep improving our performance and cement our place at the top of the leaderboard through to project completion in 2017.


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This lovely family-run hotel is located only 5 minutes walking from the golden sandy beach of Agios Prokopios between the villages of Roda and Acharavi with their cosy taverns, both of which are within walking distance. Guests can have breakfast at the terrace enjoying impressive views over the Aegean Sea and the island of Paros. Features of the hotel include 30 rooms, 24-hours reception, quick check-in and check-out, free WIFI on the whole premise, a pool with poolside bar, TV room, restaurant and tavern.
Club Travel Destinations


text:
Here's another outfit worn to work! Red, black, and white. I believe there's no other color combination that's more classic than this! It's my favorite as well 'cause you can never go wrong with this combo. The piece that I like best from this outfit though is the striped top. The print added more character to the entire look.
|Striped top: Zara; Skinny jeans: Forever 21; Bag: Alexander Wang 'Hilary Leather Studded Shopper'
|Gold watch: Casio; Black beaded bracelet: DIY; Silver bangle: Gift from my brother
Also, instead of wearing my black watch, I wore my gold Casio watch to give a little contrast to the colors I'm wearing.
|Red ballet flats: Shoe Room -- one of the comfiest ballet flats I ever owned!
Photos taken by Carla Atutubo


text:
Worldwide News
Brazil: São Paulo Practitioners Promote Falun Gong and Protest the Persecution in China2014-02-04In time for Chinese New Year celebrations on January 31 and February 1, local practitioners gathered on the busiest street in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to raise awareness about Falun Gong and the ongoing persecution in China.
Well-wishers the World Over Send New Year's Greetings to Honour Master Li Hongzhi2014-01-31Through beautiful artwork, poetry and prose, Dafa practitioners, as well as family members, friends and colleagues of practitioners express tremendous gratitude to Master Li Hongzhi for providing such a wonderful cultivation practice.
2014 Shen Yun World Tour Kicks Off in Houston with Resounding Success2013-12-31Shen Yun Performing Arts launched its 2014 world tour with 10 performances at the Jones Hall for the Performing Arts in Houston, Texas. The premiere performance was held on December 23.
Australia: The Art of Zhen, Shan, Ren International Exhibition Held in Sydney2013-11-01On October 28th-31st, the Art of Zhen Shan Ren International Exhibition was held in the Bondi Junction Library, in Sydney, Australia. The four-day event was well attended and many visitors expressed their support and appreciation.
Australia: Brisbane Square Versus Tiananmen Square - What a Difference2013-11-01Brisbane is Australia's third largest city, and Brisbane Square is located in the city's business centre. Connected to Queen Street Mall, the Square is within walking distance of the charming South Bank Parklands.
India: Falun Dafa Practitioners Solemnly Commemorate July 20th2013-08-01Falun Dafa practitioners of Bangalore came together on July 20th at a local practice site to do the exercises and study Falun Dafa teachings together.
United States: Falun Gong Practitioners in San Francisco Protest the Persecution in China2013-07-29Falun Gong practitioners in San Francisco held a series of activities on July 20th, 2103, to call for an end to the brutal persecution of practitioners in China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched a violent campaign to suppress Falun Gong 14 years ago, and the oppression has continued to this day.
Indonesia: Practitioners Peacefully Raise Awareness about the 14-Year Persecution2013-07-24Falun Gong practitioners in Indonesia held a peaceful rally on the morning of July 20th, 2013, in front of the Chinese embassy in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia. They protested the Chinese Communist Party's 14 years of brutal persecution.
Taiwan: Candlelight Vigil Held in Memory of Victims of the Persecution2013-07-23On the evening of July 20th, 2013, Falun Gong practitioners in Taitung, Taiwan, gathered in front of Seashore Park to stage a peaceful protest of the 14-year persecution of Falun Gong in China.
Canada: Practitioners Rally to Expose the Crimes Committed in Chinese Labour Camps2013-06-23Jing Tian from Liaoning Province, China, recounted how she and her entire family had been persecuted in China for practising Falun Gong. Her younger sister, Jing Cai, was sentenced to 13 years in prison in 2003; her younger brother, Jing Yu, to 10 years; and her mother, Chen Jun, to three years.
Argentina: Falun Dafa Spreads Widely in Buenos Aires2013-06-20Argentina is the second largest country in Latin America. Ten years ago, only a handful of Chinese immigrants from Taiwan and China lived there.
United States: Media Cover Falun Gong Protests During Chinese President's Visit2013-06-12During Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visit to the United States, Falun Gong practitioners came out to peacefully protest the 14 years of persecution of the practice in China.
United States: Practitioners Participate in the Portland General Electric/SOLVE Starlight Parade2013-06-07When practitioners on the float demonstrated the Dafa exercises, many spectators followed along, intimating their hand movements. Some spectators shouted, "Beautiful!" Others called out "hello" in Chinese.
United States: Persistently Clarifying the Facts about Falun Dafa in Marquette, Michigan2013-05-02In April 2013, the university's annual Skill Builders Workshop held events to enrich students' knowledge in various fields. Practitioners introduced Falun Dafa to the students and faculty on April 12th. They also taught the five meditative exercises of the practice.
Malaysia: Divine Land Marching Band Performs at 2013 Women's Marathon2013-05-02On the day of the event, the Divine Land Marching Band performed at Dataran Kemerdekaan, Shah Alam from 6 am to 8 am. This is a plaza on the marathon route. Both race participants and spectators seemed very happy to see the band.


text:
Nathan Brake
From The TV IV
|Nathan Brake
|Notable Shows
|Season 7 Contestant in Australian Idol
Nathan Brake is best known for appearing in Australian Idol. He competed in the show's seventh season, where he was placed fourth.
Idol Song List
- Audition: "Bohemian Rhapsody" by Queen
- Theatre Week (Round 1): "Papa Was a Rollin' Stone" by The Temptations
- Theatre Week (Round 2):
- Theatre Week (Round 3): "We Are the Champions" by Queen
- Top 24: "Don't Let the Sun Go Down on Me" by Elton John
- Top 12: "Stop and Stare" by OneRepublic
- Top 11: "Second Chance" by Shinedown
- Top 10: "Since U Been Gone" by Kelly Clarkson
- Top 9: "Livin' on a Prayer" by Bon Jovi
- Top 8: "Just Like a Pill" by Pink
- Top 7: "It Don't Mean a Thing (If It Ain't Got That Swing)" by Duke Ellington
- Top 6: "Thriller" by Michael Jackson, "The Music of the Night" from the musical, "The Phantom of the Opera"
- Top 5: "Makes Me Wonder" by Maroon 5, "Mad World" by Michael Andrews and Gary Jules
- Top 4: "Red" by Daniel Merriweather, "Closer" by Ne-Yo
Starring Roles
|Australian Idol


text:
A dozen new shows added, including the first U.S. arena performance at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on July 20
Alessia Cara Joins The Tour As Special Guest On All Dates; Foxes Join The Tour From July 16 thru August 6
Tickets On Sale Starting Friday, April 15
Coldplay today revealed even more dates for their massive A Head Full Of Dreams Tour. The tour will now visit an additional 12 cities around the country with shows in Las Vegas, Phoenix, St. Louis, Denver and more. The hugely successful A Head Full Of Dreams tour, produced by Live Nation, kicks off on Saturday, July 16, 2016 at New York City's MetLife Stadium with recently announced second stadium dates in several cities. Acclaimed singer/songwriter, Alessia Cara, will join the tour as a special guest on all dates while Foxes will open all shows from July 16 through August 6. Tickets for the new arena dates go on sale starting Friday, April 15.
Citi is the official credit card of the A Head Full of Dreams North American Tour. Citi cardmembers will have access to presale tickets for the newly announced shows beginning Monday, April 11 at 10:00 a.m. local time through Citi's Private Pass Program. For complete presale details visit CitiPrivatePass.com.
The A Head Full Of Dreams Tour began at the end of last month in Latin America, where the band's sold out stadiums shows have been greeted with wild acclaim from fans and media alike. The tour – which has already sold well in excess of two million tickets worldwide – will then continue to Europe before arriving in the U.S. in July.
A Head Full Of Dreams is Coldplay's seventh album and the follow-up to 2014's GRAMMY®-nominated Ghost Stories. Since its December 2015 release, A Head Full Of Dreams has reached Number One on iTunes in more than 90 countries and sold over three million copies. It has also helped Coldplay to their current position as Spotify's most-streamed band in the world.
About Live Nation Entertainment
Live Nation Entertainment (NYSE: LYV) is the world's leading live entertainment company comprised of four market leaders: Ticketmaster, Live Nation Concerts, Artist Nation Management and Live Nation Media/Sponsorship. For additional information, visit LiveNationEntertainment.com.
For more information – and the full list of upcoming live dates – please visit Coldplay.com.
This site is operated by the Pacers Family and Magnitude. To opt out of the sale of your personal information as permitted by the California Consumer Privacy Act, please use the link here.


text:
Recently I've been working on revising the Perl 5 core OO documentation, starting with a new OO tutorial.
My first draft used Person and Employee as my example classes, where Employee is a subclass of Person. After I posted the first draft, several people objected to these particular classes. I realized that I agreed with their objections, but I wasn't able to come up with anything better.
I brought this up on the #moose IRC channel, and we had a really interesting discussion. Mostly it consisted of people coming up with various ideas and me shooting them down. The rejected suggestions included:
- Person/Employee
- Number/Integer
- Real/Complex (numbers)
- Window/ScrollableWindow
- Animal/Moose
- CD/Single
- Assessment/Survey (in the context of teaching assessments)
- Others I'm probably forgetting
Let's go through my criteria and talk about why each of these examples was rejected.
No Abstract Base Classes
The base class must be meaningful on its own. It must be something you might instantiate. This ruled out Animal/Moose, we don't want instantiate a generic Animal. Our understanding of animals is always more specific. At the very least, we recognize them as Birds, Mammals, Fish, and so on, if not as specific species.
Instead, Animal is really more of a role. In fact, thinking back to high school biology, deciding whether something is an animal is based entirely on its behavior (its interface).
If the parent class is better as a role, the suggestion doesn't work.
The other suggestions all passed this test.
Must Not Be Too Domain Specific
The example classes should not require domain knowledge to understand. The Real/Complex and Assessment/Survey suggestions are clearly too domain specific. The Window/ScrollableWindow suggestion may also fail this. Yes, everyone knows that some windows scroll and some don't, but very few people would know how that's implemented.
The example needs to be something that any programmer can be expected to understand.
Must Lend Itself to Example Methods
I need an example that lends itself well to writing small example methods. The Window/ScrollableWindow suggestion fails this criterion. The actual implementation of a windowing toolkit is quite complex, and extremely domain-specific.
The Subclass's Specialization Must Be Intrinsic to Its Nature
This one is best explained through an example that doesn't pass the test, Person/Employee. Being a Person is intrinsic to the class. However, when a person is an Employee, that's not really intrinsic to the Employee, it's just something a Person does. A Person can also be a spouse, a parent, a child, etc.
In other words, these are all roles that a Person plays. Clearly, this example is better implemented through roles.
Must Not Be Useless
The classic shapes example used in so many books falls into this category. It's really hard for me to imagine a program where I need to model Ellipse and Circle classes. I suppose I might do this if I were writing MS Paint.
The shapes example is useful for illustrating some technical ideas, but it's too abstract for a good tutorial.
Must Not Raise the Idea of Specialization By Constraint
Specialization by constraint is an object orientation concept defined by Chris Date and Hugh Darwen in their book The Third Manifesto.
This is a complex idea perhaps best illustrated by an example:
my $number = Number->new(3.9);
Under the system proposed by Date and Darwen, the
$number object would automatically become an Integer object when that is appropriate.
This is a fascinating idea, but something that's best left out of a basic OO tutorial.
As an aside, if you're interested in DBMS theory and design, you should really read The Third Manifesto, which I think has now been renamed as Databases, Types and the Relational Model (their website is horrible and confusing).
The Subclass Should Add Attributes and Behavior
The Number/Integer suggestion fails in this regard because the subclass takes away an attribute.
The Subclass Should Not Be Better As an Attribute
The CD/Single suggestion fails this criterion, since there's really no behavior or attribute difference between a CD and a Single. Instead, "single-ness" is better modeled as a simple attribute on a CD class.
The Winner
So after a lot of discussion, Jesse Luehrs (doy) suggested File/File::MP3. This example satisfies (almost) every criteria.
The File/File::MP3 example works really well in a number of ways:
- The base class is not abstract.
- A generic File makes perfect sense.
- We can expect every programmer to understand the nature of the classes.
- It lends itself well to simple example methods.
- The subclass's nature is intrinsic. Files have one specific type, or we don't know their type. Yes, I know it's possible to have a file that satisfies multiple format requirements, but that's a bizarre special case.
- It is clearly not useless, and is in fact something you might find yourself writing in real world code.
- The subclass adds behavior (track title attribute,
play()method, etc.).
- The subclass is clearly not better modeled as an attribute.
The only negative is that this example does bring up the idea of specialization by constraint. In a real world implementation, you might have a File factory that looked at the file's contents and returned an appropriate File subclass.
There's no perfect example, but this one is significantly better than Person/Employee, and it's what I'll be using in my work on the core docs.
Thanks, Jesse!


text:
So i was thinking that even though the Subaru Diesel engine isnt sold in the USA why not import it and install in in one of the USDM cars.
So this is what I am aiming at. I would like to see if anyone knows how easy a Swap would be. I would imagine it would be as easy as swapping any other Boxer motor into the car but one never knows.
As far as emissions I dont have to worry about them in my state.
And finally where would i go about finding one?


text:
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Many individuals like to play, play withwords. Poetry is a form of literature that uses regular quality of words to conveya deeper significance to be felt and seen by others. Individuals use languageto put across their thoughts, feeling, ideas & perspectives. Poetry shouldalso be taught in schools as students can gain a greater perceptive, not onlyof literature and language, but of themselves & the world they live in.Poetry increase students' literacy & grammatical knowledge. Studying poetrycan assist in increasing their oral & written vocabularies as well.
These days, students have become very keenabout poetry. Poetry encourages conveying themselves innovatively.It promotes literacy & buildscommunity. And cross limits that little else can. Students get to paintsketches of their lives using symbol, descriptions & so on. They are ableto express themselves in a very creative and persuasive way, because poetry isa language which is distilled & powerful of its own. Poetry makes anindividual feel part of something noble & stunning.
Poetry is when emotions have found itsthought & the thought has found words that give freedom to literature.
Posted By - Anubha Das


text:
It's been raining all week and what better way to spend it, but inventorying all the books I've collected over the years. There are lots of surprises found, rooting through the shelves, reconnecting with old friends, apologetically unearthing discarded half-read tomes. There's a calling between the covers. Words on flipped pages draw me like a magnet and refuse to let go. The fresh cracked spines smell of wilting carnations, an abandoned celebration longing to be revived if only I'd sit and stay a while. I carry one upstairs and slip it beneath my pillow to warm up, dreaming of Elizabeth Barrett Browning:
Books, books, books!
I found the secret of the garret room
Piled high with cases in my father's name;
Piled high, packed large–where, creeping in and out
Among the great fossils of my past
Like some small nimble mouse between the ribs
Of a mastadon, I nibbled here and there
At this or that box, pulling through the gap
In heats of terror, haste, victorious joy
The first book First. And how I felt it beat
Under my pillow in the morning's dark
An hour before the sun would let me read
My books!
Elizabeth Barrett Browning


text:
by Judith Curry
It's your turn to introduce topics for discussion.
by Judith Curry
It's your turn to introduce topics for discussion.
These are the geniuses you warmists want to run the energy economy.
"The National Parks Service attempted to shut down Mt. Vernon, George Washington's plantation, earlier this week. There's only one problem: As The Blaze points out, Mt. Vernon is owned by the Mount Vernon Ladies' Association, which receives no government funding."
Emotion is the primary tactic of progressives. Scary red graphs, dead polar bears, and orange cones around private parking lots.
Morons. We are surrounded by morons. And if we let them gain control over the energy economy, we will deserve the train wreck that follows.
"Emotion is the primary tactic of progressives"
"if we let them gain control over the energy economy, we will deserve the train wreck that follows."
sounds emotive!
If I went looking for a real train wreck, and took pictures of the dead, and blamed it on James Hansen and Al Gore, then I would be on a par with y'all.
another emotive argument?
Fear is the strongest and most basic emotion of all.
Someone who is fearful of AGW will have a hard time thinking rationally about this subject, because that person is driven by an emotion – fear.
Are you fearful of AGW?
Or are you just pretending to be?
Fear is the strongest and most basic emotion of all….Someone who is fearful of AGW will have a hard time thinking rationally about this subject, because that person is driven by an emotion – fear.
So whaddya think of fear-mongering about fear-mongering, of the sort that we see in thread after thread, from "skeptics" here at Climate Etc.
Oh. Wait. Alarmism is only alarmism when "they" do it.
My bad.
Don't know much about "alarmism about alarmism".
But this has very little to do with the topic lolwot and I were discussing: the inability of someone driven by fear, the strongest of all emotions, to think rationally, when discussing the topic leading to that fear.
I have no fear (of CAGW or any other potential doomsday scenario), so I don't have that problem.
Do you?
He's got holes in his bag of sophist tricks and all the good ones fell out.
What about fear-mongering about fear-mongering about fear-mongering then?
phatboy –
What about fear-mongering about fear-mongering about fear-mongering then?
You do have a point there.
Ah, just like the turtles holding up the world, it's "fear mongering" (or "Alarmism about alarmism") all the way down, apparently.
Here's what's amusing:
Gary claims he's not an elitist, and:
(1) describes anyone who he deems as "progressive" as a "moron."
(2) describes some 70? 80?, 90%? of the American public as "progressives" (in other words anyone who would align their political views with Obama, Bush, McCain, Clinton, etc.
(3) believes he is inherently more "moral" than the vast majority of people on the planet who don't share his beliefs on religious doctrine.
Ya' just gotta love the "skeptical" mind. A work of art and a thing of beauty.
"Here's what's amusing"
What's amusing is how you can make such a fool out of yourself over and over again, and continue to come back for more. You seem to have no human capacity for shame. Pretty interesting on one level.
Hey PG –
How's it going?
As always, thanks for reading. Time for your shower now.
May the Bird of Paradise fly out of your shower nozzle.
"Emotion is the primary tactic of progressives."
Gary, as if the right is any better. How did the neocons inveigle us into that unfunded fiasco of a war in Iraq?
I thought you were a former progressive? You sure do repeat the mantras of progressivism with surprising accuracy.
The Iraq war was not a fiasco. It was brilliantly conceived and executed. Getting bogged down in the political aftermath was a fiasco.
If left to the military, it would have been an in and out job. Go back later and kick the crap out of them again, if and when necessary. Same story for Afghanistan and any other freakingistan. Politicians who have never had their boots on the ground need to listen to expert advice.
A canter down some dark defile.
H/t the magic rabbit winks.
Ah, pg, to create a nation of Sistanis is worth the gamble. Marsh Arabs may yet be the innovation most useful in that bitter sectarian unsecular struggle.
"I thought you were a former progressive"
Gary, I no longer feel the need to label myself in that way. I'm a thinking human being, with opinions that are not predetermined on the basis of any one political philosophy. The notion that conservatives are better people is manifest nonsense. And Don's insistence that the ludicrous Iraq war was brilliantly conceived is imo, more of the same. You guys suffer from the same kind of moral and intellectual blindness that you're so quick to identify on the left.
You are conflating military operations and politics, pokerguy. The politicians decided that we needed to invade Iraq. The first time to free Kuwait and the second time to remove a dangerous despotic regime that went out of its way to make it appear that it possessed weapons of mass destruction that our politicians decided posed a threat to our safety and interests.
The ball was handed to the military. The military operations were brilliantly planned and executed. We kicked the crap out of them once and then did it again. The political decision to stay in Iraq and get bogged down in an attempt to plant peace and democracy amongst crazy people was not brilliant. That is all I am saying. And you are free to conflate. Carry on.
"Gary, I no longer feel the need to label myself in that way. "
Not "I was wrong to have believed what progressives taught." Not "I made a mistake in being misled by progressive propaganda (on climate or anything else)."
Nope. I no longer feel the need to label myself.
This puts you in the Christopher Hitchens camp of people who have suddenly realized, not that they were wrong, but that those with whom they formerly agreed were wrong. Which is a nice piece of mental gymnastics if you can pull it off.
That way you can still claim that the people you thought were stupid when you were a progressive, are still stupid. It's just that the people you formerly agreed with are also stupid now.
Ah the wonders of being one of the few, the enlightened…the muddled middle.
Ruh roh, is my master stupid?
One interesting article is on how much more carbon can we put in the atmosphere for the 2 C limit. Turns out we are half way there already, and the rapid-burning RCP8.5 scenario puts that total only 30 years away. It makes a point that I have been recently that warming needs to be expressed in terms of the total emissions rather than ppm levels, and goals should be set in terms of an accumulated total, rather than just a rate like Kyoto's 1990 levels, because it is the cumulative total that determines the final temperature.
" One interesting article is on how much more carbon can we put in the atmosphere for the 2 C limit. Turns out we are half way there already, and the rapid-burning RCP8.5 scenario puts that total only 30 years away."
It's not interesting, It's wrong. But if it is right why are we not building nuclear power plants as fast as we can, as it is the one energy source that could displace fossil fuel in a meaningful way right now?
Because 13 years ago Al Gore told us it would take us 10 years to get to an all Electric fleet, and 20 year for Nuclear. Plus which, Nuclear is evil.
I do wish they had spent that $1T stimulus on Nuclear, instead of whatever they spent it on. Of course, it didn't help France.
Jim D
You cite an article:
"World's carbon budget to be spent in three decades"
To arrive at your statement:
warming needs to be expressed in terms of the total emissions rather than ppm levels, and goals should be set in terms of an accumulated total, rather than just a rate like Kyoto's 1990 levels, because it is the cumulative total that determines the final temperature
What determines the theoretical increase in temperature resulting from GH warming over a time period is the change in GHG concentration over that period, in a logarithmic correlation (you know this). The change in concentration (ppm) is dependent on the cumulative human emission over that period, so your statement is basically correct.
But let's do a quick "sanity check" on the article by Kelly Levin in "WRI Insights", which you cited to justify your statement
– First of all, Ms Levin's article is based on the IPCC "worst case" high-coal, high-forcing, high end climate change scenario RCP8.5, not on a more likely case. This scenario has CO2 rising to around 750 ppmv by year 2100.
– Second, the 2ºC "upper limit" for AGW is based on the baseline temperature of 1750 – 260 years ago! We have already seen about 1.0ºC warming over those 260 years (most of it occurring long before humans emitted much GHGs at all) and we are doing just fine, thank you. In fact we are arguably doing much better than we were as we were still emerging from the harsher climate period called the Little Ice Age. (I have pointed out to you several times that it as absurd to start a warming "prediction" with the year 1750 – duh!)
– Third, we now have several recent observation-based studies that inform us that the 2xCO2 climate sensitivity at equilibrium (ESC) is around 1.8ºC, or about half the 3ºC predicted by the IPCC models.
Humans now emit around 33 GtCO2 per year.
World population is 7.1 billion, so per capita CO2 emission is 4.65 tons.
In 1980, total CO2 emissions were 19.5 GtCO2.
Population was 4.4 billion, so per capita CO2 emission was 4.43 tons.
So over the past 33 years, the per capita CO2 emission has grown by:
(4.65 / 4.43) – 1 = 4.9%
UN estimates that world population will grow to around 9.2 billion by 2043.
Let's assume that per capita CO2 emission increases by another 5% over this period
Annual CO2 emission in 2043 would then be:
33.0 Gt * 1.05 * 9.2 / 7.1 = 44.9 GtCO2
And the cumulative emission over the next 30 years would be:
(33.0 + 44.9) * 30 / 2 = 1168 GtCO2
50% of this "remains" in atmosphere = 584 GtCO2
Mass of atmosphere = 5,140,000 Gt
So added CO2 adds:
584 * 1,000,000 / 5,140,000 = 114 ppm(mass) = 75 ppmv
2013 level: 395 ppmv = C0
2043 level: 470 ppmv = C1
ln(C1/C0) = 0.1734
ln(2) = 0.6931
Using IPCC's (arguably exaggerated) model prediction of 2xCO2 ECS of 3ºC, this would result in warming above today (at equilibrium) of:
3.0 * 0.1734 / 0.6931 = 0.8ºC
And using the latest observation-based estimates of 2xCO2 ECS of 1.8ºC, the warming would be:
a) This will not get us to the "magic" 2ºC above 1760 temperature
b) It is certainly nothing to get worried about, as it is less than 1ºC warming above today.
Jim, when you cite an article it is always best to first check how realistic it is.
manacker, you need to calculate again what 470 ppm gives you over 280 ppm at 3 C sensitivity. It is over 2 C. What you forgot is what is in the pipeline, which is why to avoid doing calculations starting with today's ppm. Their scenario amounts to emissions being 50% larger than yours by 2043, almost doubling between 2010 and 2043. Emissions doubled in the last 33 years, so this is a plausible upper limit which RCP8.5 is designed to be. A trillion tonnes of carbon, being 3666 GtCO2 as a cap is ambitious given that we are already nearing 2000 GtCO2, leaving 1700 GtCO2 in the budget. At today's rate, it would be used within 50 years. With a somewhat ambitious ramping linearly down to zero starting today, we have 100 years. This requires a reduction of 3.5 GtCO2 per decade, about a tenth of todays emission rate. From this point of view, I could be more optimistic because it is not far from current targets.
I assume that was Mad Max's self-critique of his own ramblings.
More on this. I found the IPCC section relevant to a proposed carbon budget.
"The principal driver of long term warming is total emissions of CO2 and the two quantities are approximately linearly related. The global mean warming per 1000 PgC (transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions, TCRE) is likely between 0.8°C–2.5°C per 1000 PgC, for cumulative emissions less than about 2000 PgC until the time at which temperatures peak. To limit the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone to be likely less than 2°C relative to preindustrial, total CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources would need to be limited to a cumulative budget of about 1000 PgC over the entire industrial era. About half [460–630 PgC] of this budget was already emitted by 2011. Accounting for projected warming effect of non CO2 forcing, a possible release of greenhouse gases from permafrost or methane hydrates, or requiring a higher likelihood of temperatures remaining below 2°C, all imply a lower budget. [12.5.4, Figure 12.45, 12.46, Box 12.2]".
An item in Huff Post on it here.
That's what I'm talking about. I fully agree with trying for this as it is more sensible than targets relative to 1990 levels for example, and it does lead to leaving certain fossil fuels in the ground, and using the cleanest ones. Whether there will be any global commitment, who knows?
Praises for Senior:
Now that OHC is at the forefront – a cynic might say that it has become useful now it helps explain recent short-term temperature change – is it not time to recognise that Roger was right? I'm not convinced about the other side of his argument – an overemphasis on CO2 in the policy guides – but, irrespective of your opinion of his political inclinations, it is important to give due respect to someone who argues outside the box, dares to challenge convention and has the courage to be unfashionable.
I also happen to think that his strongly-held views on deforestation are also highly commendable. This has ceased to be a political issue at the forefront for some time, but it is as big a sustainability and environment issue as ever, and should be further up the political agenda.
Yes, but the green line.
Maybe global warming isn't "hiding". Maybe the heat just didn't enter the system. …
This is a very interesting video by an astronomer and a solar researcher :-
At 4:02 in the video the astronomer says that the Sun has been in an oddly quiet period. The solar cycle [that has just ended] took 14 years instead of the usual 11 years. He says, "That is probably the reason why global warming has plateaud [sp?] a little bit, despite the carbon dioxide levels increasing …".
"Many solar researchers think the reason is the Sun. Because when the Sun is quieter, that corresponds to cooler weather on Earth."
It makes me wonder if solar researchers have any input into the IPCC reports. It would be logical to at least consult them, since knowing how much energy is entering a system would seem to be a necessary first step.
Peter Yates,
The heat went into "The Deep".
The heat went into "The Deep".
But we can't measure it, so I'll just have to take your word for it, Webby.
catweazle666 | October 5, 2013 at 10:28 am |
"The heat went into "The Deep"."
Naturally you can prove that?
manacker | October 5, 2013 at 8:55 am |
But we can't measure it, so I'll just have to take your word for it, Webby.
You guys are just a bit clueless. The commenter I responded to was named Peter Yates, who I recalled was the director of the blockbuster 70's action movie "The Deep".
Yes, you are right! .. He was the director of "The Deep", and also "Bullitt" with the car chase by Steve McQueen, and "Breaking Away", etc. … Sadly I am not the same person! … cheers.
WHT I missed that one too. At least Peter Yates got it!
Jim D, "2 C limit"
What genius came up with the that limit Jim.
What would your limit be, 4 C, 6 C? Are these better worlds than 2 C? What about your ideal sea-level, if you could choose?
The article I posted above shows, in my view, how difficult it would be to stop short of 2 C because we just can't decelerate the burning rate fast enough. Their trillion-tonne carbon limit is an easy concept to understand however, and really is the bottom line that matters.
So far it has stayed below 1 C, and I would like to keep it that way. Hansen suggests 350 ppm to maintain the planet the way all current life developed on it, and that corresponds to 1 C, but requires net sequestration now so I don't give it much hope. But, given a choice, 1 C, the 20th century value, steady-state climate, no surprises, is better than we are heading for.
The 20th century is in the range 0-1 C, which I would argue is better than for example 3-5 C. But if you want a year, 350 ppm was the value in 1988, coincidentally the year of Hansen's plea to Congress.
Jim D
You tell tony b that your ideal "just right Goldilocks global temperature" is that of 1988.
HadCRUT4 showed an anomaly of 0.201C in 1988
It showed an anomaly of 0.448C in 2012
So the global warming since 1988 is 0.247C (of course, this is averaged annually and globally all over the world).
Has this added quarter of a degree C caused you any discomfort or distress? If so, how?
(It hasn't caused me any.)
In fact, since I live in central Europe, I'd welcome another degree or two of warming above today's temperature.
Tony b lives in England (and is apparently struggling with making tomatoes grow there), so I suppose he would not mind another degree or two, as well.
And, hey, the good news (from IPCC) is that most of the warming would occur at higher latitudes that are still below the average ambient temperature favored by homo sapiens sapiens, so it sounds like good news all around.
Higher SL? Add another meter to the dikes, if and when it appears that this would be needed.
Problem solved.
manacker, yes, plus or minus 0.5 degrees, no problem. We are already committed to more than that. Four degrees with no mitigation, big problems.
I have had problems with tomatoes as well, not so much this year. Last year it didn't get cold enough to set fruit until October.
Back in 1988, I thought it was too hot, then came 1995, not to mention 2012, I'll take 1988 now but the temps of the 70s would be better.
Increasing the size of sea walls and dykes etc. will not work everywhere, especially Miami.
Jim D
4 degrees with no mitigation
And how much less with mitigation?
List specific actionable mitigation proposals and the resulting reduction in warming from each.
And, while you're at it, add a price tag, so we can see how much a hundredth of a degree averted warming costs us before we pay up.
Awaiting your reply.
manacker, 4 C can very easily come from 5 W/m2 forcing changes, and these forcing changes can very easily come from the carbon we have left to burn, however long that takes. It is not a stretch to say this for a no-mitigation scenario.
tonyb, you personally may be below 1988, but 99% of the rest of the world are decidedly not. Land temperatures have risen at least 0.5 C in that time, so your downward dip is temporary and local.
tonyb, well I see a blue spot for CET in that 1970-2009 trend. Is that what you were referring to? It doesn't look like a third to me.
tonyb, clearly I am not looking at that last red-dominated figure the way you are. CET may be an exception because it also became very wet since 2000. Someone said the five wettest years on record have been since 2000 in Britain, but I would like to see that confirmed because it was only on TV.
"Most importantly, Rosetta estimates that on its entire position in Reeves County, it has over 100 million barrels of oil equivalent in place per section (one square mile). The estimate is truly staggering. To put it in perspective, if only 10% of total oil and gas originally in place could be recovered, gross revenue from each square mile could exceed $600 million over the life of the property (using $90 per barrel oil price realization and $5/MMBtu "wet" gas price realization and assuming reserve mix of 67% oil and 33% gas). By comparison, in its current estimates, Rosetta assumes average recovery factor of approximately 3.8%."
This model gives a maximum production rate of Bakken wells of 1.4 million barrels/day, but only if the number of new wells is added at the rate of 150 per month, or about 5 new wells per day.
This is likely not sustainable.
Otto and others already braving the extremes of a region where sunlight disappears for 60 days a year are experiencing a new phenomenon: daily life navigating the risks and opportunities of climate change.
The Arctic has heated up twice as fast as the rest of the planet in the past three decades. By August 2013, sea ice had lost 76 percent of its volume compared to 1979, according to the University of Washington's Polar Ice Center. Citing core samples taken from ice sheets, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations group, reported on Sept. 27 that the three main gases blamed for global warming –carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — are at their highest level in at least 800,000 years.
As a rational and reasonably intelligent person who has been around a while, I find it hard to believe that such a ridiculous claim could be made with any confidence. There is no way to reliably measure these gas concentrations. Period. I find it also hard to believe that the billions (with a "B") of bison who converted the stored CO2 in prairie gases to methane for thousands of years along with the billions of other grazing animals which once roamed the planet, did not elevate methane above the current level.
I only posted it because it is related to global warming. The views expressed in the article are not necessarily those of the poster.
Has anyone heard of a warmist blog called "HotWhopper". It's run by Miriam O'Brien " a sixty something women" going by the name of sou. She seems to hava an obsession with writing nasty posts about Whats Up With That. See here
Had a quick browse through some of the posts, doesn't seem to be anything new except more data manipulation.
She seems to hava an obsession with writing nasty posts about Whats Up With That.
That's OK, since WUWT seems to have an obsession with writing nasty posts about Skeptical Science.
Agreed. But everyone writes nasty posts about Skeptical Science
Judith- Would you please comment on Scafetta's paper regarding harmonics and temperature? Thanks
7 Key Points that will drive the Natural Gas Market
1. There are new proven techniques to extract more natural gas.
2. There are large new found fields, old fields that can increase production and unrealized natural gas fields that companies are just beginning to drill and come on line in the near future.
3. There are many companies, small and large that are buying/leasing new lands and engaged in producing more natural gas.
4. Currently, and for the needs of the future, there is not enough infrastructure to take the natural gas to market.
5. There are not enough markets that can buy the amount of gas that will be produced.
6. There are 3 licensed export terminals to sell the gas overseas, but limited the terminals are not up and running at this point in time. The infrastructure to get gas to the terminals is still being planned and built. The infrastructure will be built over time, but expect 3-5 years for the maturity to develop and start relieving the supply pressure.
7. With the gas glut, the price has been driven down and will remain there for the next several years. Companies will consolidate, some go out of business and others take losses until the supply levels to the demand level. The demand will grow and increase, but expectations in the market are 3-5 years.
Leo Dicaprio says we need to do something. Q.E.D.
Heh, not to be confused with the other other JC
I have a new post coming up in the next few days, which should interest (annoy) just about everyone with an interest in the climate problem.
Stay tuned!
Pessimistic Predictions
Global temperature changes
IPCC predictions in 1990, 1995, 2001 & 2007
Let me repeat my question from an earlier thread. See if I get any answers. Has anyone seen whether or how the first half of the 20th century is treated in AR5? My search, admittedly not exhaustive, has been fruitless so far? Judith?
Was this point acknowledged in AR5 ??
The temperature increasing capacity of atmospheric CO2 is known to diminish as concentrations increase. This diminution effect is probably the reason why there was no runaway greenhouse warming caused by CO2 in earlier eons when CO2 levels were known to be at levels of several thousands ppmv.
Both skeptics and Global Warming advocates agree on this.
An earlier IPCC report, (TAR3), acknowledge that the effective temperature increase caused by growing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere radically diminishes with increasing concentrations. This information has been in the IPCC reports. It is well disguised for any lay reader, (Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: section 6.3.4 Total Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Forcing Estimate) .
Up to ~200 ppmv, the equivalent to about 82% of the temperature increasing effectiveness of CO2, is absolutely essential to maintain plant life and thus all life on earth. The current level of ~400 ppmv is already committed and immutable. At that level it amounts to 93% of the warming effect of CO2 in the atmosphere .
Thus only ~7% of the effectiveness of CO2 as a warming greenhouse gas now remains.
So there can only ever be a minor temperature reduction impact of any de-carbonization policy, controlling CO2 emissions. Whatever political efforts are made to de-carbonize free world economies or to reduce man-made CO2 emissions, (and to be effective at temperature control those efforts would have to be universal and worldwide), those efforts can only now affect at most ~7% of the residual future warming effect of CO2.
The rapid diminution effect is an inconvenient fact for Global Warming advocates, apparently nonetheless, it is well understood within the climate science community but it is certainly not much discussed.
So more CO2 in the atmosphere cannot inevitably lead directly to much more warming. And increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere cannot give rise to any dangerous temperature increase.
Thus de-carbonization policies could never have useful impact to realistically control any rising world temperatures and the future world climate. As the future temperature effect of increasing CO2 emissions is now so minor, therefore there is no possibility of ever reaching the political target of less than +2.0°C.
If the effect is again acknowledged by the IPCC it certainly would destroy any implication of impending catastrophe for global warming.
I would be grateful to have some one with more climate science capability than I to affirm that the IPCC have again made this important admission that is so damaging to the catastrophic element of their case.
Ice in the arctic should reach the new Siberian Islands in 3 days heralding a massive quick refreeze of the arctic this year.
In the 2013 ARCUS July survey of minimum ice extent predictions, the two least accurate estimates were by Neven and the UKMet office.
The weather produced severe brain storms in a few localities.
This sting operation may help explain part of the climate science problem.
The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science
M. L. Khandekar, T. S. Murty, P. Chittibabu
A review of the present status of the global warming science is presented in this paper. The term global warming is now popularly used to refer to the recent reported increase in the mean surface temperature of the earth; this increase being attributed to increasing human activity and in particular to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere. Since the mid to late 1980s there has been an intense and often emotional debate on this topic. The various climate change reports (1996, 2001) prepared by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), have provided the scientific framework that ultimately led to the Kyoto protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide) due to the burning of fossil fuels. Numerous peer-reviewed studies reported in recent literature have attempted to verify several of the projections on climate change that have been detailed by the IPCC reports.
The global warming debate as presented by the media usually focuses on the increasing mean temperature of the earth, associated extreme weather events and future climate projections of increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide. In reality, the climate change issue is considerably more complex than an increase in the earth's mean temperature and in extreme weather events. Several recent studies have questioned many of the projections of climate change made by the IPCC reports and at present there is an emerging dissenting view of the global warming science which is at odds with the IPCC view of the cause and consequence of global warming. Our review suggests that the dissenting view offered by the skeptics or opponents of global warming appears substantially more credible than the supporting view put forth by the proponents of global warming. Further, the projections of future climate change over the next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time.
Dwelling in the plethora of warmth,
Why damn and fear it?
Hey Kim,
Talk to the Australians about your "plethora of warmth" as they are facing their warmest year on record and a potentially catastrophic fire season ahead.
We are very lucky to be living in a time when there is such a large spike in population growth and enough energy to keep people communicating and investigating the world. Such a sharing of knowledge among so many people even if the wheel is reinvented x times over may never happen again. The good times should run out as all exponential spikes come to an end but the knowledge gained may be retained and help us cope in a warming ,cooling or neutral world.
The problem we face is ourselves not the climate.
During discussions about the LIA, the subject of volcanic activity often comes up. There was a very large volcanic eruption around 1257 AD, that caused some cooling around that period. Seems they've found the source volcano after many years of looking:
And more info here:
Also nice to see this solid research done on the role of volcanic related aerosols in the current tropospheric "pause" in temperature rise:
Of course the sleepy sun and cool phase of the PDO also play a role in masking the forcing from the human carbon volcano as measured simply by tropospheric temperature only. But of course, don't tell the Aussies about the "pause" as they are headed toward their warmest year on record and face a potentially devastating fire season ahead.
We have had this discussion before and since then I have found records that confirm the cooling had begin around 6 years BEFORE the 1257 eruption. Thongs were back to 'normal' i.e higher temperatures, within two years of the eruption. Its most noticeable effect were strange patterns in the sky and a continuation of the preceding 5 years weather trends.
Have I quoted the passages to you before?
I think you might have quoted those before, but send them along.
Are you not persuaded by the evidence that a series of large volcanic eruptions, with the 1257 event (which was very large) being just one, along with solar and THC changes brought about the LIA? That is to say, the LIA was a complex multi-causal event with different distinct periods as the various causes had their effects dominate or interact?
Any doubts you can't predict the future?
Compare Monty Python's "Dead Parrot" with the IPCC's "correction" of the climate models.
This is from the 1970s!
Have fun!
I'll enter this at the top level as well, apologies for the repetition.
For Jim D et al and Manacker
The world does indeed face a dire and truly urgent threat from Climate Change.
It is just not what the Global Warming advocates want to think it is.
In the context that the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD has been the coolest of our current benign Holocene interglacial and was a full 1.5 °C lower that the earlier Holocene optimum according to ice core records. So a little global warming could be very welcome.
But since the year 2000 a further significant change has been occurring: the UKMO official Central England Temperature CET record has shown an annual decline of ~ -1.0°C and a winter (DJF) decline of ~ -1.5°C. These declines are as much or even more than the total CET gains in the period 1850 – 2000.
However, this year 2013, has seen a more extreme temperature decline in the UKMO official Central England Temperature CET record. In the first half of 2013, UK Met Office CET temperatures were a full 1.89°C lower than the monthly averages of the previous 12 years.
That is pretty significant and it really matters. That marked decline has lead to significant crop failures and serious loss of agricultural productivity. The effect has been seen throughout the Northern hemisphere and cooling effects are also clear in the Southern hemisphere.
Assessing the sunspot records we seem to be rapidly heading for a Dalton minimum event (at best) in the next few decades. This will destroy agricultural productivity throughout the world.
But Global Warming advocates only ever propose solutions for the control of Global Warming, (overheating), by reducing Man-made CO2 emissions. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates fail to explain how reduction of man-made atmospheric CO2 can ever can help to control Climate Change towards a cooling world.
Having made so many dire predictions of impending climate catastrophes from overheating, the advocates of Global Warming / Climate Change fail to accept that a climate change towards a cooler climate is more likely to lead to more intense adverse weather. There is good reason to expect this, simply because the energy differential between the poles and the tropics is bound to be greater and that in itself leads to less stable atmospheric conditions.
A cooling world as the Northern Hemisphere seen in the years since 2000 leads to much more dire consequences for the biosphere and for mankind than any realistic amount of warming that could ever arise from future man-made CO2 emissions.
National policy makers and the United Nations are neither recognizing nor are they preparing for this potentially disastrous eventuality.
edmh, at this point it is more about applying the brakes to warming, which are currently getting no traction, so we are sliding into an unknown climate. It would be great if we had the luxury of choosing to be cooler too, but that is not on the list. It is warmer or hotter.
But sadly warming does not seem to be happening. Nor is it likely to happen as we enter Dalton minimum solar conditions at best for the next 30+ years.
Get ready for real crop failures and cold deaths.
The Catastrophic Warming advocates will all have been seen to be looking in the wrong direction.
Jim D. said:
"so we are sliding into an unknown climate…."
Based on the pace of change over the Holocene, this "slide" into the Anthropocene has been more like a charge, led by the eruption of the human carbon volcano. Also, based on paleoclimate data, the intermediate climate stop is not so "unknown" as we need only look at the Pliocene from about 3.2 mya.
edmh, for land it is up nearly 0.3 degrees per decade for the last three decades, but I don't think this will change your mind. It is probably not in the talking points you see on your websites.
Explore Earth's surface with community software
"Java Climate Model – Introduction
Climate change is influenced by complex interlinked processes. This interactive model lets you explore the system and how we can change it, simply by adjusting with your mouse parameters and observing the effect instantly on diverse plots ranging from socioeconomic drivers to climate impacts. The core science calculation methods are calibrated to be consistent with results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, implemented efficiently in the java language, to enable anybody to access this tool via the internet and explore diverse scenarios and the sensitivity of projections to risk/value judgements and scientific uncertainties. "
For short term climate, modeling paleo isn't necessary. It's essentially fixed for relatively shorter periods.
On the present halting of global warming Syun-Ichi Akasofu Climate 2013, 1, 4-11; doi:10.3390/cli1010004
Abstract: The rise in global average temperature over the last century has halted since roughly the year 2000, despite the fact that the release of CO2 into the atmosphere is still increasing. It is suggested here that this interruption has been caused by the suspension of the near linear (+ 0.5 deg C/100 years or 0.05 deg C/10 years) temperature increase over the last two centuries, due to recovery from the Little Ice Age, by a superposed multi-decadal oscillation of a 0.2 deg C amplitude and a 50 ~ 60 year period, which reached its positive peak in about the year 2000—a halting similar to those that occurred around 1880 and 1940.
Because both the near linear change and the multi-decadal oscillation are likely to be natural changes (the recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) and an oscillation related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively), they must be carefully subtracted from temperature data before estimating the effects of CO2.
The Syun-Ichi Akasofu paper you cite is interesting, although the "CAGW believers" will certainly discount it, since it flies in the face of the "CAGW" premise (as outlined in detail by IPCC in AR4 and being repeated in AR5).
But, if we take Akasofu's figures we have for the late 20thC warming period (~1970 to ~2000):
a) natural pre-AGW long-term linear trend (LIA recovery) = 0.05C/decade * 3 decades = 0.15C
b) 0.2C amplitude of 30-year PDO oscillation = 0.2C
c) total attributable to natural causes = 0.35C
d) observed total global linear trend 1970-2000 (HadCRUT4) = 0.5C
e) Balance = anthropogenic = 0.15C (0.05C per decade)
d) CO2 levels (Mauna Loa):
1970: 324 ppmv
2000: 369 ppmv
f) 2xCO2 transient climate response (TCR):
0.15C * ln(2) / ln(369/324) = 0.8C
g) 2xCO2 equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) = 1.5C
Checks with several recent observation-based studies, all suggesting that IPCC model-predicted estimate of 2xCO2 ECS of 3C is exaggerated by a factor of around two.
Makes sense.
[In AR5 it appears that IPCC is acknowledging this lower estimate, but only by expending the lower end of its ECS range down to 1.5C without relinquishing the upper end of 4.5C (in order to keep the fear factor alive).]
Worth copying from another thread:
R. Gates aka Skeptical Warmist | October 6, 2013 at 12:47 pm |
Agnostic said:
"I want to hear "if this happens we will no (sic) we were wrong". I dont think that is unreasonable."
This is not an unreasonable thing at all, and it is easy to give:
1) Ocean heat content (as the primary part of the system that has absorbed the majority of the energy) would need to decrease on a decadal basis. Even one decade would be very disastrous for the overall AGW hypothesis. Given that the next generation of ARGO floats will be greater in number and going over twice as deep, the accuracy of this metric is improving yearly. Ocean heat content has not decreased on a decadal basis since 1960-70, and then only barely.
2) We see the cryosphere reverse direction from a general global decline to increasing overall net mass in glaciers and specifically Greenland and Anarctica. Additionally we'd need to see permafrost reverse the general decline we've seen and of course Arctic sea ice return to pre-1970 levels.
3) We see tropospheric temperatures decline from the current plateau of the warmest decade on instrument record to a decade or two of 1970′s or cooler temps.
If we see all three of these occurring (without some extreme negative external forcing such a several Pinatubo sized volcanoes a decade going off) then AGW theory would be essentially dead. Probability of these three happening without the above mentioned external forcing: <5%
Liked Muller on the pause.
Gotta wonder how much shale tight oil and nat gas is down there???
"The map shows that the Eagle Ford's productivity is not limited solely to South Texas and has also been established by a significant number of successful wells in the area that represents a continuation of the Eagle Ford formation across the San Marcos Arch into East Texas. Strictly speaking, the East Texas Eagle Ford is a different play defined by a different depositional environment. However this early on in the North American Shale Oil Revolution, it is impossible to rule out the possibility that yet another significant productive shale is waiting next door for its time to be delineated and developed. The major question is, will its geology yield a sweet spot similar to the one that has made the South Texas Eagle Ford world famous."
I would like to thank the enviro-idiots who put alcohol in the gasoline I use in my weed eater. The alcohol ruined it. Again, thank you for saving me from the evil fossil fuel companies. No, I mean it. Sure I do.
" The army has been sent into toilet paper factories, fights for basic foodstuffs have resulted in several deaths and new, multi-million dollar oil tankers are sitting idle in dock. And, despite sitting on the world's largest oil reserves, Venezuela's socialist government can't quite manage to keep the lights on.
Now many in Venezuela are wondering how much longer President Nicolas Maduro, the anointed successor of the country's firebrand Leftist leader Hugo Chavez, can keep hold of the reins of its crumbling socialist revolution.
Last week Mr Maduro was forced to turn to a well-worn answer for his country's woes, blaming a US plot to "sabotage the electrical system and the Venezuelan economy" and kicking out Washington's envoy to the South American country. "Out of Venezuela!" he railed on state television, adding in English: "Yankees go home!"
It was a move copied straight from the playbook of Chavez, the vocal anti-imperialist who passed away in February, and one which killed off any hopes of rapprochement with the US following years of thorny relations.
If that wasn't enough, Mr Maduro then accused the US Drug Enforcement Agency of orchestrating the presence of 1.3 tons of cocaine seized last month from an Air France plane flying out of Caracas. With the government long accused by Washington of complicity in the drug trade – counter-narcotics officials say some 50 per cent of cocaine in Britain is now trafficked through Venezuela – the bust was likely a US plot using mafias to brand the country a "narco-state", he said. "
" RIO DE JANEIRO–Brazil's government will announce a massive oil discovery off the country's northeast coast later this month, according to acting Sergipe state Gov. Jackson Barreto.
Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao will travel to Sergipe's capital, Aracaju, on Oct. 23 to officially announce "the world's largest oil discovery of 2013," Mr. Barreto told Sergipe state's official news agency Friday. The event is also expected to include Magda Chambriard, director of the country's National Petroleum Agency, or ANP, Mr. Barreto said.
The two government agencies, however, downplayed prospects for an announcement. The Mines and Energy Ministry could not confirm Mr. Lobao's visit. In a statement, the ministry added that it "has no knowledge of any new oil discovery in the country other than those already announced by Petrobras." "
" HONG KONG — China just received a reminder it has a serious pollution problem. There was nothing golden about last week's national holidays. Flights were cancelled and highways closed across northern cities, as hazardous grey smog returned.
Unfortunately for China's leaders, pollution is one problem that's hard to fudge away, or kick down the road.
For one, it is no longer a dirty secret. After three decades of rapid industrialization, China's pollution is now the most visible sign of its unbalanced and dysfunctional growth. At its root is an outsized addiction to burning dirty coal, which makes up 70% of its fuel mix. In fact, while China produces around 14% of global GDP, it consumes 47% of world coal consumption.
Another problem is it hits everyone. One widely reported academic study released this summer brought the sobering news that if you live in the north of China, life expectancy had been cut by 5½ years through pollution. "
+ Here is a subject you should discuss:
Is Meteorology about to go through the same kind of upheaval that Climatology is going through. Recently it was revealed on a website (see link below) that one of the major tenets of Meteorology, convection of moist air through dry air, was never measured/tested. It was just assumed. Just like CO2 Forcing. The implications of how Meteorologist conceptualize the origins of storms is huge.
"Arctic Oil Discovery Heralds More Finds in Norway's Barents Sea
By Mikael Holter – Oct 7, 2013 6:01 PM CT
Norway may see a series of Arctic oil finds after a well produced crude from a previously unproductive layer of rock, explorer Lundin Petroleum AB (LUPE) said.
The Gohta discovery in the Barents Sea announced by Lundin last month was Norway's first in Permian rocks, formed more than 250 million years ago, the company's Norway head Torstein Sanness said in an interview. Holding as much as 145 million barrels of of oil, Gohta opens as many as 10 possible drilling targets in the surrounding area, he said.
"We're hoping for a string of pearls," said Sanness, whose company made Norway's biggest oil find in decades in 2010. "We plan to build resources aggressively over the next years, so there's little doubt we'll reach the commercial threshold" for developing Gohta.
After a decade of falling oil production, drilling in the Barents Sea is helping to revive interest in Norwegian exploration. Austria's OMV AG (OMV) also announced a discovery last month in the area, north of Norway's traditional oil-producing region in the North Sea. Statoil made the commercial oil discoveries in 2011 and 2012 and further successes will make developing oil infrastructure in the remote Arctic region viable. "
"Move over, Russia: U.S. is now the world's biggest oil and gas producer
October 4, 2013, 1:12 PM
By Claudia Assis
The U.S. will end 2013 as the world's largest producer of petroleum and natural gas, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, the Energy Information Administration said Friday.
The EIA estimated combined U.S. petroleum and gas production this year will hit 50 quadrillion British thermal units, or 25 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, outproducing Russia by 5 quadrillion Btu.
Petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, and biofuels.
U.S. and Russian energy production over the past two years have been roughly equivalent. Since 2008, U.S. petroleum production has increased 7 quadrillion Btu, with "dramatic" growth in Texas and North Dakota, the EIA said.
U.S. natural gas production has risen 3 quadrillion Btu over the same period, the agency said, while Russia and Saudi Arabia each increased their combined petroleum and natural gas production by about 1 quadrillion Btu since 2008, the EIA said."
E=Which is oil ter the good, jim 2.
Energy has long been both the bane and the favored instrument in the foreign policy of governments. Yet, for the US, fortunes are changing and the goal of former President Nixon's Project Independence looks soon to be realized. On the back of the shale gas boom and technological improvements in energy production, the US is predicted to take a giant leap toward this independence as it becomes the world's biggest gas producer by 2015. Naturally, countries like China, which is estimated to hold more shale gas than the US and Canada combined, are hungry to learn the secret to their success. This may be just the carrot of diplomacy the US seeks to hold greater interaction with Beijing. Indeed, the juggernaught in Washington's "pivot" to Asia may not be the US Navy, but instead Chevron, Halliburton and ExxonMobil.
Such a move helps speed up China's acquisition of expertise. Devon Energy hasn't been the only company China has picked up a stake in. Chinese National Oil Companies (NOCs) have invested in foreign companies and their knowledge, particularly in the US and Canada. A 2011 IAE report highlights partnerships that took place in 2010 between Chinese NOCs and Canadian companies with specific shale gas expertise. China National Petroleum Company/PetroChina purchased a 60 percent stake of an oil sand project in Alberta, and also formed a joint venture with Canadian Encana to develop shale gas plays in British Columbia. Meanwhile, more recent buy-ins by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have included a Chesapeake subsidiary and the take-over of Canadian firm Nexen, which is currently exploiting shale gas in British Columbia and expanding operations to Poland.
The hunt for such expertise through joint ventures and partnerships is on the rise across Asia. According to an Ernst and Young report, "Asian NOCs spent $37 billion acquiring assets outside their home markets" in the first nine months of 2012. And the game isn't over yet. NOCs continue to explore further partnerships in North America and anywhere they can glean the expertise they need. In the brave new world of unconventional energy extraction, knowledge is power – the US has it and China wants it.
As well as this foreign absorption of expertise, Beijing is also pouring money into domestic research and development under the "National Key Technologies Research and Development Program" (1983) and other recent initiatives. But it can't move quickly enough. R&D, just like technological know-how, takes time.


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Cornish Christening Photographer covering Cornwall, Devon and the UK
Capture your child's Christening or First Communion in a unique and treasured way by using a professional photographer at a very important moment in their life.
I will attend the service and shoot candid reportage style shots of your precious little one getting christened or making their first Holy Communion plus I will shoot some more formal shots after of friends and family.
The service I offer has no limits to the amounts of photographs taken on the day to ensure complete coverage from start to finish.
After the event the images will be uploaded to an online gallery where your friends and family can view and order from. You will also be presented with a disc with all the images for you and an unlimited license to print and share.
I photograph the service, formal family and guest shots as well as a range of reportage style photos from the day.
Christenings and Communions are a fantastic opportunity for friends and family to gather at a unique time in your child's life. So don't miss this unrepeatable occasion by hiring a professional photographer to capture those moments for ever.
Don't delay book your photographer today!
Christening pricing from Alchemy Photography includes a DVD of high resolution images, with full license to print and share
You will receive all the images processed from your day at full resolution watermark free and your images will also be available in an online gallery.
Coverage includes Photographing the Christening service, formal photographs, and we end by documenting the reception party
The price for coverage as described is
Alchemy Photography also offer a Photography book album, a beautiful
Image wrapped hard-backed photobook (10" x 8" or 13 x 11") manufactured by Blurb
available with 40 or 80 pages a great way to remember the day
Contact me for price information
When you book me for a Christening, I will arrange to come and visit you before the day to discuss your requirements
01840 212546 or mobile 07814673984
e-mail email@example.com
6, Trecarne Gardens
Cornwall PL33 9DP


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12th Israeli Film FestivalAnonymous Filed Under:
The Embassy of Israel in partnership with the Ayala Cinemas will be holding an Israeli Film Festival, with the opening to be held on Thursday, 19 December 2013. The festival now in its twelfth year runs through Saturday, 21 December 2013.
Showcasing the Israel's wide diversity, award-winning and acclaimed Israeli films were brought in for the delight of the Filipino people and local Jewish community to showcase the many facets of Israeli culture and society.
The festival's opening day will feature a ribbon-cutting ceremony to be led by Ambassador Menashe Bar On, his spouse, Eti Bar On and the guests of honor, the cast and crew of Filipino indie film "Transit" directed by Ms. Hannah Espina and produced by Mr. Paul Soriano.
The recently-named Philippine Oscar submission features teenage actress Jasmine Curtis-Smith as Yael, an Israeli-born Filipina struggling with her cultural identity. The emotional drama puts the audience in the shoes of Filipinos in Israel.
Aside from the strong bonds of friendship between Israel and the Philippines, the Film Festival will touch upon the lives of different cultures and lifestyles in Israel: modern and traditional; Arabs and Jews; religious and secular, among others.
Opening this year's festival will be a former Oscar submission on its own – "Footnote". The award-winning film explores the troubled relationship between a father and son who teach at the Talmud department of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Other feature films include: Things Behind the Sun, Mabul (The Flood) and Restoration. The Festival will be open to public screening from 20 – 21 November.
Greenbelt 3
Esperanza St. corner Makati Ave., Ayala Center
Makati, Metro Manila, Philippines
Thursday December 19, 2013 7:00 PM
Read more at www.clickthecity.com


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2-minuten demo: Investitionsplanung mit CCH Tagetik
Erhalten Sie einen Überblick über die Investitionsplanung in CCH Tagetik. Während die Handhabung sehr einfach für den Benutzer gehalten ist, verbergen sich unter der Oberfläche leistungsstarke Algorithmen, die die gesamte CAPEX Komplexität abbilden.
Capital expenditures refers to the purchase of assets such as property, equipment or software which are used to maintain or increase the scope of companies operations in the long term and thus needs to be capitalized, which requires depreciating the cost of the asset over it's useful life.
From the user perspective, it could not get in easier.
Right from the homepage, with a single click, your users can access a simple data entry form, which this is just an example of, and key in as many asset additions as needed, leveraging both row and sub-level annotations.
For each asset, from the drop-down menu, you can assign the asset class, which defines depreciation schedule whether it's straight line, double declining or any other depreciation method.
We can also provide some additional information, such as type, priority or any other attribute and, of course, enter the cost of the asset in the proper month of purchase, and if the depreciation start date is different from purchase date, we do support a concept of production date, so can have an additional field to enter the exact date when you want to start depreciating your asset.
Now below you can see that, right away, CCH Tagetik will recap your asset balance by asset class and, as soon as you click on save, an in memory calculation will be triggered through the CCH Tagetik CAPEX engine, which will immediately calculate the impact for the projected life to date balance sheet depreciation as well as the projected monthly P&L depreciation, and of course the sum of monthly P&L depreciation will always equal the negative year-to-date balance sheet depreciation number.
So, the beauty of the CCH Tagetik CAPEX engine is that, in a guided fashion both from an admin end-user side, you can set up and run these complex calculations without the need of any custom coding or crazy Excel formulas, only some simple inputs from your end users.


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Tel: 205-681-9524 | Email: email@example.com
Doin' It Right for More Than 27 Years
Working in and around Birmingham, AL daily
Serving Residential Home Owners for the last 27 years, you can count on us to handle all your roof repair needs with ease. We are licensed roof repair specialists and Chuck handles all the repairs himself.
Hi, Chuck Baker here, owner of Chuck's Roof Repair. As the son of a very skilled and well-respected roofer, I began learning the trade at a very young age. In 1985 I began working on roofs with my father full-time. He taught me something that is very rare these days — to take pride in my work and do the right thing regardless if anyone is watching or not. I have been a professional roofer for over 28 years and along the way I became a roof repair specialist. Whether you are in need of a major or minor roof repair, I can help.
Over the last 28 years, I have seen the roofing trade in general go from skilled craftsmanship performed mainly by American citizens to mostly foreign laborers slapping on shingles as fast as they can go, often not slowing down enough to pay attention to the many details which are extremely important to a roof's performance. Then there are the storm chasers and other tradesmen who will take on a roof job without much knowledge of these detail areas. This shoddy workmanship can easily lead to problems with the roof in the future. When you want old-fashioned quality, call Chuck Baker.
Whether you are in need of leak repairs or ventilation solutions, count on us to cater to all your roof repair needs. We offer FREE estimates on all your roof repair projects.
Thanks for a great job. It was a pleasure working with your company. I appreciate the job you did, especially the quick response. I will definitely recommend you to others.
— Mike H


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I've spent a lot of January so far, particularly this week, thinking about life and choices we (I) have to make at some point.
Not deciding anything, just, thinking.
Life has it's tips and turns. It brings challenges. Sometimes, things will inspire you. Sometimes, they will try to break you. Sometimes, you can be inspired by something that tried to, or nearly did, break you.


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Muskogee cost of living is 13% less than the national average, Muskogee offers an affordable array of housing options for a new resident.
The average cost of a single-family three-bedroom house is around $80,000, with average rental rates of $750 per month. Explore our lovely neighborhoods and choose from a variety of styles, including beautiful mansions and luxury homes, brick houses on majestic wooded lots, suburban homes with a Victorian flavor, modest residential homes, and colonials. If you're not in the market to buy, you can rent an apartment at one of the many developments throughout town.
To improve the quality of living for our residents, Muskogee is currently undergoing the Neighborhood Redevelopment Program, allowing residents to make improvements to homes located within the original townsite.
The home of your dreams is waiting for you in Muskogee!


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Wednesday, December 01, 2010
advent calendar 1
a treasured tradition of my childhood holidays is the advent calendar. one little door to open or one small gift to unwrap for the 24 days leading up to christmas. this season, i offer a countdown calendar, of sorts, for you. 24 days of random images, maybe a saying or a poem, possibly some longer posts that need to spill out of my heart. each day, a little door to open with the click of your mouse.
join me, if you will.
{i took this photo at the swamps while watching the canada geese. this image is my reminder that in the colder, darker days of the year, truth and purity of the self is the focus. those things that are hidden, those things about ourselves that make us cringe and shy away from public view, are very often, the most beautiful parts of ourselves in disguise. the bones of our soul have a magic of their own. and the light. in the darkest days of the year is the time to make our own light.}
6 comments:
We used to have chocolate advent calendars as children and my brother would always pinch the chocolate and close the doors back up. :0)ReplyDelete
My husband has a chocolate calendar this year and I have an advent candle. My sister had to ship me one from the UK because I can't seem to find them here in the US.
i love this idea, and have thought of doing something like this myself (no surprise, huh?) but have been curled into an emotional fetal position this past week, paying way too much attention to myself.ReplyDelete
i will join you. i will probably post each evening though. advent calendar evening 1, etc.
a nice way to end my day.
thank you for this. MUCH needed.
Ooooooo! Great post!ReplyDelete
I very much look forward to following your Advent trail. :)
yes, love this, i have already joined reverb10, but i will follow along with your calendar, and others, looking for those little gifts each day.ReplyDelete
and you do, make your own light.
This reminds me of something my friend said...she has a vase which was intentially made with cracks. I haven't seen it but she tells me the cracks are what make it beautiful.ReplyDelete
We talked about how God's light shines through our cracks...how it is the broken places, the places we have hurt, failed, stuggle with...our weaknesses...that God does his most powerful work through.
(2 Corinthians 12:9 )
following you from emmatree and Mrs. M.ReplyDelete
a fine idea. i don't blog, but will post a picture each day of December on my picturetrail for the advent.
thank you for the thoughts.
I always appreciate the time you take to comment on my blog. Thank you for stopping by. Peace from my heart to yours. xo, Graciel


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Retail Quality Audits
Our professional field force evaluates your product in the market, using your criteria, whether you are in a Quality Assurance, R&D, Manufacturing, Distribution or Marketing role. We provide objective, statistically reliable data, analysis and reporting.
RQA provides customized project management with accurate, timely and cost effective results.
Retail Quality Audits may include:
- Package Condition
- Product Assessment
- Age Distribution
- Display Data
- Availability
Audits may be performed to assess:
- Shelf-Life
- Manufacturing Performance
- Distribution Efficiency
- Competitive Benchmarking
- Product Launch and Test Markets
- Advertising / Claims Substantiation
- Trade Marketing Compliance
How does my product really look on the shelf?


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Street Beat Festival
Federal Hill | Website
This event occurred in the past.
Event features live music on three stages arts and crafts food and drink games Kids' Kross Street with many activities for children and more.
Music by Old Man Brown All Mighty Senators Speakers of the House Soul Island Rebels Shinola Pigeons Playing Ping Pong Unmentionables and others.


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Heals and regenerates skin tissue
Draws out toxins
Treats acne (prevents breakouts and helps clear up acne)
Unclogs and shrinks pores
Prevents blackheads
Reduces appearance of scars
Excellent natural exfoliator
Evens out skin tone
Leaves skin feeling softer Leaves your face glowing!
A weekly detoxifying mask. Sodium bentonite clay imported from India.
Known as a "healing clay" that cleanses the skin; helps calm infections, such as contact dermatitis; helps speed up the healing time of acne and wounds.
Mix the clay mask powder with water or apple cider vinegar with a 1:1 ratio or until you achieve a paste-like texture. Apply onto clean, dry face, avoiding the eye area. Allow it to dry for 15 to 20 minutes. Rinse thoroughly with lukewarm water. For best results, use once a week.
EXPIRY: 3 years
A. Bentonite Clay unclogs and shrinks the skin pores
Whether you have oily skin or not, your pores will undoubtedly become clogged at some point. Shrinking the size of your pores can help tremendously with keeping your face clean and blemishes as bay. Make a mask from clay using enough water and clay to make a paste along with a little lime juice. Apply to your face and neck and leave it on for about thirty minutes. You will feel your face tighten slightly as the mask dries. Rinse with warm tap water and pat dry with a clean towel. Repeat this twice a week to reduce the size of your pores and leave your skin feeling vital and fresh.
B. Bentonite Clay helps control the overproduction of sebum
Too much oil on the skin, abnormal shedding of dead skin cells and excess bacteria generally results in acne. You may also be prone to outbreaks if you take certain medication, produce too much sebum (a natural oil) or have a family history of acne. Blackheads or whiteheads are produced due to an excess of sebum, which cause blocks within the hair follicles on the skin. Oily skin with too much sebum encourages the production of bacteria which irritates the skin. This can result in acne.
To keep your skin soft, supple and blemish-free, use a dab of clay mixed with water directly on blemishes. Leave on overnight and repeat until blemish is gone.
C. Bentonite Clay draws out the toxins from the skin
Bentonite clay has a very strong negative electrical charge. Since many toxins have a positive charge, the clay bonds to them. When it comes in contact with a toxin, heavy metal, chemical, or other impurity, the clay will gobble up the toxin and release its minerals for the body to use. In addition, Bentonite clay also pulls hydrogen from cells, allowing room for oxygen. This helps with circulation, and overall skin tone and health.
D. Bentonite Clay makes skin softer
Bentonite clay is loaded with silica, a trace mineral that strengthens connective tissue including muscles, tendons, ligaments, cartilage and bone. In addition, it makes your skin super soft. Silica is the most abundant mineral in the earth's crust and is the name for the chemical compound silicon dioxide. Glass, quartz, and sand are all comprised of oxygen and silicon. Using bentonite clay on your skin means you reap all of its benefits as it is readily absorbed. If you want more of its benefits, eat foods high in this mineral including garbanzo beans, cucumbers, mangos, asparagus, leeks, green beans, strawberries, and celery.
E. Bentonite Clay gives a definite glow to your face
Bentonite clay conditions and nourishes one's skin by removing the dead cells and also extracting the extra oils and impurities from the surface of the skin. For a "glow" you should apply the clay mask regularly.
Be sure to clean your face with water first and then apply the mixture of clay and water and a few drops of tea tree essential oil, to the face. Keep the mask for five minutes and rinse with lukewarm water. The aftermath of this is an instant glow on the face. Many use the mask just a few times a week or once a week and have great results.
F. Bentonite Clay exfoliates
Exfoliating is a very important part of any skincare regime. It not only removes dead cells but also unclogs the dirt and oil in your pores that can cause breakouts. Although you can find many exfoliating products in the store, they often contain harsh ingredients. These ingredients include plastics, irritating fragrances, glycerin, parabens, phthalates and other questionable substances.
To make a powerful and natural exfoliating scrub, simply mix the bentonite clay with a little apple cider vinegar and make a thick paste. Rub the paste in a circular motion over your face and neck and rinse with warm water. For added exfoliating power, add a teaspoon of coffee grounds. Follow up exfoliation with a light layer of moisturizing coconut oil.
G. Bentonite Clay helps reduce the appearance of scars
If you are one of the millions who suffer from acne, you not only have to deal with the acne itself but also the scars that remain from it. The use of bentonite clay is one among the few effective home remedies to remove the scar tissues. As mentioned, this clay helps to remove toxins from your pores, allows skin to heal and reduces inflammation.
Bentonite clay helps in the lightening of acne marks on the face. Bentonite clay helps one to get rid of scar tissues and stretch marks easily and effectively. Acne scars often result in red color on the face. Clay can help heal the skin and reduce inflammation and redness.
H. Bentonite Clay is safe for all skin types
Bentonite clay is very effective and beneficial for skin and safe, no matter how old you are. Bentonite clay is suitable for all types such as normal, oily or acne-prone skin. As mentioned, clay is packed with useful minerals and it will help detoxify while nourishing your skin.
I. Bentonite Clay can be used to regenerate skin tissue
Bentonite clay can be used to rebuild damaged skin tissue. Activated bentonite clay assists in healing and regenerating skin tissue. The clay also helps to rejuvenate skin naturally and reduce fine lines and wrinkles while fighting bacteria and infection.
To make a healing pack, mix bentonite clay powder or baking soda and oatmeal with water and an anti-infection herb (such as garlic, thyme, or calendula) or use an herbal tincture.
For bites, stings and burns, make a poultice using a thick layer of clay on your skin covered with a wet gauze cloth. Leave the cloth on the affected area for about 2 hours and change it out until you experience relief.
J. Bentonite Clay gives you an even skin tone
During one's childhood, one has almost perfect skin with an even tone. But as the time passes, skin damages from common problems such as sun exposure, discoloration of the skin and acne breakouts with most of us ending up with uneven skin tone and skin discoloration on your face.
Although it is not possible to completely recover the baby like skin, by applying bentonite clay on the face you can attain a younger look and improve your skin texture and tone. Dead skin cells, developed over time on the skin surface, give your skin an uneven tone and aged look. By exfoliating your skin you can eliminate such dead skin cells so that newer, younger skin can grow through to give your skin complexion a revitalized appearance.
K. Clay can be used in place of toxic face powder
Bentonite clay can even be used instead of face powder. Free from any damaging ingredients, Bentonite clay is a safe, non-toxic cosmetic staple that every woman should have.


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It was standing room only at the third Brainy Bar event.
Run by Walnut in conjunction with WARC, the idea is for clients, vendors and agencies involved neuroscience (the "brainy" part) to get together in Creston's bar (the "bar" part) to share case studies and best practice.
It's an admirable shared vision: people from different fields working together to create more effective communications.
There was lots of good stuff, but my main take-outs from the evening were:
1) Ads that evoke an emotional response are more effective
Dr. Cristina De Balanzo from Walnut introduced the evening. I was too busy drinking my G&T to take many notes but did biro down that Emotional campaigns yield better long term results, as Binet & Field proved in their IPA meta-analysis in 2015.
2) Work with natural human tendencies to ensure your ads are memorable
Heather Andrew from Neuro-Insight explored techniques to create effective TV advertising, based on work from a range of clients including ThinkBox. Many of the studies involve getting people watching TV ads whilst wearing EEG headsets and measuring emotional engagement and long term memory encoding. Granular feedback of what works within a 30 second TV ad is really useful when creating future executions:
- Great ads should not only to evoke emotion but build long term memories. The latter part is vital if you want to influence future behaviour – not just create great entertainment.
- Great brands develop associations in your brain over time. She used the "brand room analogy" – your brain has "rooms" – brands you know well are "completely furnished"; brands you know less well are "sparsely furnished". The aim is to build associations (furnishings) then trigger these at relevant times (switch the light on).
- Triggers can be quite subtle – shapes, colours, smells, music can then trigger these associations and "turn the light in the room on"
- Andrew focussed on how her research had revealed that subtlety is a surprisingly powerful tool:
- Showcasing rather then overt selling means people are more open to your messages;
- There is a human tendency to respond to stories, puzzles, people. Make your brand part of one to encourage long term memory encoding. The example was the Diet Coke Break campaigns which bring together a similar cast of characters and situations;
- Human interaction always encourages a reaction in any ad: correlating with better recall. For example peak point for long term memory encoding was the kiss in the John Lewis "growing older" execution.
- A great technique: picking elements proven to correlate with long-term memory encoding from pre-tested TV ads and using these "flashbulb" images to lead outdoor campaigns Increasing effectiveness based on real data, not intuition.
3) Use the neuro toolkit to test, learn and optimise – just like you do with any other method
Thom Noble (NeuroStrata) gave a detailed overview of how he triangulates different methods in the neuro toolkit to add value for clients. He combines measures of standout (aka salience – where the eye is drawn to when you look at an image) and emotion (aka implicit response – a timed measure of the strength of associations you have when exposed to a product/brand) to evaluate comms.
He talked us through a programme of research with CGI design agency, Saddington Baynes establishing the parameters of good car advertising, establishing "what good looks like" for static and CGI car ads. Using a series of controlled tests – he investigated parameters like car colour, trim level, car facing left/right, the car being static or in action, with a driver or not etc.
Some evidence was surprising. For example, it is better to have the car image on the left, and text on the right as our brains process this combination more intuitively.
The outcome was database evidence relating to what works relating to car imagery. This moves beyond gut reactions, providing a new understanding of cause and effect. You can imagine how useful this is when creating a new campaign – reverse engineering rather than starting from scratch.
In summary
As a former comms agency researcher I was pleased to see how these methods were used to augment intuition: empowering creatives – not side-lining them. Thanks to all involved.