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A strapless, one-piece, princess satin wedding dress with corset closure. The neckline features lacy scallop outline, underneath the soft chiffon pleats bustier. A delicate bow defines the bust line and a lace band below the natural waist is decorated with crystals, highlights this crinoline bridal gown.
Available at our Penang showroom.


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Quad Webb-Lunceford is most definitely the breakout star of Married To Medicine. With that larger than life personality and those witty catch phrases, of course she is! Love her or hate her, Quad is reality TV gold.
In a recent interview, Quad reveals why she leaped into reality TV, how she really feels about her Married to Medicine co-stars, and more.
While some fans of the show think she is over the top, Quad explains that she loves life, every moment of it, and that enthusiasm naturally comes out through her personality. She describes herself as "very animated" and "a character."
Why reality TV? "For me, I just looked at the greater platform it would give me,"Quad says. "Ultimately, I would like to be an actress. To get into some scripted writing – not off the cuff reality, scripted. So I saw this as a stepping stone as possibly getting me there."
Quad mentions "avenues for entrepreneurship" as another reason why she agreed to reality TV. Like many other reality TV stars, she has product ideas, like "catch fire" t-shirts, and a "hilarious" book in the works.
How does Quad's husband, Dr. Gregory Lunceford, feel about this journey? "Initially, when we got in this, he had some reservations," Quad admits. "As we talked about it and talked things through and came to an agreement, ever since then, he's been totally supportive. And I really appreciate that."
Awww! In my opinion, all of the husbands on the show seem like great guys, and I really enjoy the husband/wife and doctor/doctor scenes.
Dr. Jackie Walters Lemon Squeeze Turns Sour
Quad's least proud moment from Married to Medicine? "The profanity I used [the first episode]," Quad shares. "I was very much so upset. I'm a nice person, and that's not what I wanted people to see of me first."
Quad adds, "I was definitely taken back by the behavior of my cast mates. I had lunched with these women, dined with these women, and although we weren't close friends, I would consider them associates."
How does Quad feel about being compared to Tamar Braxton? "You know, there might be some similarities, but we're still really different people," Quad says. "I love her personality. Give me someone who's over the top, and I will live for them. I see sometimes where she's kinda loud, and I would say I'm loud too. But she has a really great heart. She's a very ambitious woman and she thrives to make her mark in life. I love that. I love to see that."
Quad goes on to say that other reality TV stars, namely the Real Housewives of Atlanta, have offered advice and support. "We're really grateful for that."
Can Quad describe her fellow Married to Medicine costars in one word? Oh boy!
Dr. Jackie Walters: "Intelligent"
Kari Wells: "Artificial"
Toya Bush-Harris: "She doesn't have an identity. Kinda confused, lost." HAHA. One word fail.
Mariah Huq: "Fabulous"
Dr. Simone Whitford: "Down to earth"
Quad's favorite thing about her bestie, Mariah? "It's so much," Quad remarks. "I love the business part of Mariah. She's very savvy and has strong business acumen, and I love that about her."
Kari, Toya, And Quad Talk Puppies In Paris
Quad adds, "In terms of our personal relationship, she takes care of me. We take care of each other. I don't like when people come up against her."
Pointing out that people root for their friendship to be destroyed by the show, because people love drama, Quad says, "People want to see that. Our goal: we came in together, we're going to leave together."
Why is Quad so proud of Mariah? "I get emotional because I know it's hard," Quad shares. "It's hard for us, overall, but a black female.. you see that. I'm really happy that God blessed her with the vision and she in turn blessed me with the opportunity."

subset: commoncrawl


text: Saab proud about Swiss government selecting Gripen Gripen Air Gripen ETPS Gripen Czech Republic Gripen Hungary Gripen South Africa Gripen Sweden Gripen Thailand Gripen for Brazil Gripen for Switzerland Gripen for India Press release 30 November 2011 The Swiss government has decided to select Gripen as its future multirole fighter aircraft for the Swiss Air Force. Given that Switzerland is known globally for applying highest procurement standards and requesting state-of-the art technologies, Saab is both proud and delighted that Gripen has been chosen as the Swiss Air Force's future multirole fighter aircraft. "The Swiss type-selection confirms that Saab is a market-leader in the defence and security industry and that Gripen is a world-class fighter system that provides the best value for money", says Håkan Buskhe, President and CEO Saab. The Gripen programme will create a long-term partnership between Switzerland and Sweden. Saab assures Switzerland a long-term strategic industrial co-operation aimed at creating sustainable high tech jobs, transferring technology and generating export business. Saab stands prepared to start negotiations and await the next steps of the process. Gripen is in service with the Swedish, Czech Republic, Hungarian, South African and Royal Thai Air Forces. The UK Empire Test Pilots' School (ETPS) is operating Gripen as its advanced fast jet platform for test pilots worldwide. Saab is also delivering successful industrial co-operation programmes in Czech Republic, Hungary and South Africa.Saab serves the global market with world-leading products, services and solutions ranging from military defence to civil security. Saab has operations and employees on all continents and constantly develops, adopts and improves new technology to meet customers' changing needs.For further information, please contact: Saab Press Centre, 46 (0)734 180 018 www.saabgroup.com This information was brought to you by Cisionhttp://feed.ne.cision.com/client/saab//Commands/File.aspx?id=1533891The following files are available for download PDF Last updated: 23 January 2015 • 14:42


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I have a nasty habit of comparing the the Tropopause and the 4C ocean thermal boundary layer in a way that is not very clear. This is mainly due to my looking at the situation more as a puzzle than a serious fluid dynamics problem. As I mentioned in a previous post, I am looking for a simple back of the envelope method of proving the limits of CO2 radiant forcing to a reasonable level of accuracy.
The main similarity is that both are thermal boundaries with sufficiently large sink capacity to buffer changes in radiant forcing. Their mechanisms are different but the impacts are very similar.
The ocean 4C boundary is a combination of thermal and density mechanisms that result in interesting thermal properties. Warming the 4C boundary from above results in upward convection which tends to reduce the impact of the warming. The heat loss from the 4C layer has to be from warmer, 4C to colder but also has to allow for constant density. If not, there would be turbulent mixing and there would be no 4C boundary layer.
So cooling or actually maintenance, of the 4C boundary occurs mainly in the Antarctic region where the air temperature is cold enough to cause the formation of sea ice. This also occurs in the Arctic, but seasonal melting produce less dense fresh water that has to mix, with turbulence, with the denser saltwater. If there were no turbulent mixing there would be lens of fresh water constantly in Arctic summer. In the Antarctic, much more of the sea ice survives the summer months, so there is continuous replenishment of the 4C maximum density salt water slowly sinking in the southern pole that creates the deep ocean currents. Turbulent warming of the 4C layer in or near the tropics causes rising convection from the 4C boundary layer which impacts the rate of replenishment from both poles. It is a very elegant thermostat for the deep oceans, laminar replenishment versus turbulent withdrawal.
The Tropopause is similar but different. Non-condensation greenhouse gas radiant forcing balance conductive, convective and latent cooling response. The Antarctic winter conditions are controlled by the non-condensible radiant effect primarily which result in a maximum low temperature equal to the amount of non-condensible radiant forcing for that temperature range.
The lowest temperature ever recorded in the Antarctic is about -90C and that would be the lowest temperature in the Tropopause if it were not for non-radiant energy flux. The average temperature of the Tropopause is closer to -60C, which indicates that the average impact on non-radiant energy flux is on the order of 30C in the Tropopause. That is a fairly large buffer range. In addition to that range, the Tropopause altitude can vary so for short term perturbations, the temperature can drop to -100C possibly a little more. The Tropopause temperature cannot decrease much lower because stratospheric warming due to ultra violent solar radiation interacting with oxygen in the dry region above the Tropopause.
Non-interactive outgoing long wave radiation, the atmospheric window portion of the spectrum is less in the Antarctic due to the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship, ans should be on the order of 9Wm-2 at -90C implying that the actual CO2 portion of the Tropopause limit is on the order of 55 to 60 Wm-2. As more CO2 forcing is applied, the percentage of non-interactive OLR would increase, offsetting approximately 15% of the impact.
As surface temperature increases, the non-interactive response would continue to offset approximately 15% or the non-condensible GHG forcing and the conductive/convective and latent fluxes would offset more with the changes in temperature, gas mix and pressure. Convection, which is a function of temperature, density and conductive properties, is the non-linear part of the puzzle that causes the uncertainty in a pure energy perspective while albedo, surface and atmospheric, change just adds a new layer of complexity.
In both the 4C and tropopause boundary layers, virtually immeasurable changes can have a significant impact on the heat sink capacity of each and each have extremely different time constants. More complexity, making this an outstanding puzzle!
So this post hopefully will explain why I compare these two thermodynamic layers as I do, though the mechanisms are very different.


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Artist Inger Lena Gåsemyr got the wole village together to knit legwarmers for 18 trees in one of the streets in Eidsfjord. The project Graknitty is thought to bring people closer together and initiate communication, as well as using available resources and keep knitting alive as a craft. Gåsemyr has earlier been involved in a similar project in Chicaco, called Knit it.
"We no longer need speedbumps. The cars pass by in 20-30 km/h" says county council representative Lisbeth Bygstad according to the Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet.
Tree leg warmer. Now that's something for the Ravelry queues.


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Monday, November 02, 2009
Simple Woman's Daybook
FOR TODAY...November 2, 2009
Outside my window...there is thick cloud cover and possible showers later this afternoon. The temperatures for the week will finally be 80 and below, the break in the heat will be so nice.
I am thinking...how happy I am to live where I do.
I am thankful for...that little camper that we have. All seven of us stayed in it for three nights and we did great!
I am wearing...p.j.'s, the weather has not helped me to get going.
I am remembering...that it was 8 years ago that we moved into our house, how do the years pass so quickly?
I am going...to start cleaning and planning for the holidays. We have several opportunities for fellowship during the next month and if I plan ahead they will be so much sweeter.
I am reading...Southern Living, shared by a friend.
I am hoping...that we get a good report at the doctor tomorrow. Things are looking up in the sleep department; for one of us anyway.
On my mind...how to make our 20th anniversary memorable.
From the learning rooms...brand new books to start today. The came while we were away this weekend.
Noticing that...there are only a couple of weeks of football left. It is always fun when it starts, and I am always thankful when it ends.
Pondering these words...If you read history you will find that the Christians who did most for the present world were precisely those who thought most of the next. It is since Christians have largely ceased to think of the other world that they have become so ineffective in this. C.S. Lewis
From the kitchen...spaghetti and meatballs, soup(the temperature dropped below 80), all my children will want chili, tailgating food for two football games at the end of the week.
Around the house...cleaning, yard work, decisions on when animals will be going to the butcher, cleaning out and putting up the camper.
One of my favorite things~ memories of road trips. Our trip over the weekend was to snorkel a reef. We saw all kinds of neat fish, lots of coral we studied about in school and all but Hannah had a wonderful time. She struggled with ALL of her equipment and while I did not think she was having any fun, she did tell me she was glad she went.
From my picture journal...
Please visit Peggy to read more Daybooks, or to create one of your very own!
6 comments:
- quilt'n-mama said...
I am so glad you had a good weekend and enjoyed the reef! While we were in DC went saw a very large salt water tank/coral set up at the Musuem of Natural History and the kids were so excited to see fish they had studied!
I hope you have a wonderful 20th anniversary soon too!
- November 2, 2009 at 9:20 AM
- Love Bears All Things said...
We've been looking at campers on line. We're thinking we can travel cheaper that way when Honey Bear retires.
Happy Anniversary!
Mama Bear
- November 2, 2009 at 10:34 AM
- Tara said...
So glad you had a great trip and returned safely home. Poor Rebekah baby girl glad she managed to have some fun.
Yes catching up through our daybooks is flustering. I'd rather be talking to you over tea and our crafts.
Can't wait to hear about the trip from everyone today.
Blessing my dearest friend.
- November 2, 2009 at 11:43 AM
- Gae said...
How I love new books. The thrill of discovery inside, new things to share and learn.
God Bless
- November 3, 2009 at 8:32 AM
- Karen said...
Thank you for stopping in to visit me. I hope you've had a good week. I enjoyed reading your daybook!
- November 4, 2009 at 12:16 PM
- dtbrents said...
That's a beautiful picture. Your trip sounds wonderful. Happy Anniversary. Marriage is a wonderful thing. I hope you have a wonderful week and make great memories. Doylene
- November 4, 2009 at 8:26 PM


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What's the Very Best Bed Bug Cure - Tips About Just How To Remove Bed Bugs
What's the Very Best Bed Bug Cure - Tips About Just How To Remove Bed Bugs
Welcome to my blog
In this blog I will be posting short stories, and videos about my life.
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What's the Very Best Bed Bug Cure - Tips About Just How To Remove Bed Bugs
There's no easy answer to the question, what is the best bed bug therapy? Therapies can vary according to the level of invasion discovered. The greatest aim should be full reduction, however while numerous methods can be used to manage the bed bugs. The following procedures may be performed in most cases to eradicate them. Sometimes they not all may be required.
search online for comfortable beds
The first thing to complete is always to make sure that there's a bed bug invasion. There is nothing to distinguish bite scars left by bed bugs from bite marks left by different insects like mosquitoes. Therefore as a way to be sure that there is a beg pest infestation these methods may be used. Observe whether you will find special crimson marks and fecal locations left on clothes such as mattresses or bed fabrics by the bedbugs. Also try to find eggs or cases shed in other areas along with crevices, along the way molting. For actual identification seized bed bugs may be compared with reference photos online from different sources. Ask bug treatment can start, after the infestation is determined. This might incorporate independently or several processes performed one. One of the first steps ought to be to preserve bats and chickens from the home. These pets' nests like houses that are human perform number to bed bugs and that may have been the technique where they were introduced to the property. All-the unnecessary mess inside your home must be removed so your amount of hiding spots available to bed bugs is reduced. Things eliminated if required employed with pesticide, and within this approach must be examined, cleaned. other outfits that might have been beset or show symptoms of infestation, and when they are reusable, should be along with bed cloths washed using hot water. They should be put into a cloth dryer at a high-temperature when they can not be laundered for some reason. They can also be placed in sunlight for a number of days. After completely washing them furniture also might be put in sunlight for all days. Related results may be purchased by putting the identical items outside for approximately fourteen days during winter. Carpets and such things that are like may be steam washed to rid them of bed bugs.


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The NBA docked $25,000 from New Orleans Hornets head coach Monty Williams, after he went public with his absurdly silly complaints regarding the League's newly-instituted concussion policy. Per the Times-Picayune: "Williams made the comments when asked about Hornets forward Anthony Davis, who was injured last Friday night when he was hit in the heat with an elbow from teammate Austin Rivers. 'The better he feels in the next couple of days, it helps the situation,' Williams said. 'But when you're dealing with the brain, I guess what's happening in football it's impacted everybody. So he got touched up a little bit last night and I'm sure that happens a lot in basketball. It's just that now you treat everybody like they have on white gloves and pink drawers. It's just getting old, but it's just the way the league is now.' […] Before Davis is cleared, the Hornets will have to consult with a neurologist hired by the NBA. Davis could miss several games before he returns because of the league's extensive concussion protocol procedures. As of Tuesday Davis hasn't been cleared to play. The Hornets take on the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night at the New Orleans Arena. On Saturday Williams said he's not against the league's concussion policy, but thinks players should have more say so on how they feel. 'I'm not saying I don't like it; we've got to protect our players,' Williams said. 'I'm sure I had four or five concussions. When I played it didn't bother me. The NBA is doing what's necessary to protect the players but this is not the NFL. You don't get hit in the head that much. I understand it, but as a coach I'm a baby about it. I want my guys ready to play.'"
Monty Williams Fined $25k for Criticizing NBA's Concussion Policy


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The Red Sox have an off day today, before beginning a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park.
This has been a rocky week for the Red Sox after they admitted to stealing signs during the Yankees' series.
Hanley Ramirez walked off in the 19th inning the other night, followed by a gem from Doug Fister, but the question remains. Will the four game lead over the Yankees stand?
The answer to that question is yes it should. This Red Sox team should win the division. The pitchers for this weekend are Drew Pomeranz, who is 2-1 in his last three starts. He has a 3.78 ERA, and 17 strikeouts. Despite losing for the first time in nearly two months, Drew will look to bounce back to begin a huge divisional series.
Chris Sale goes Saturday – he has struggled in his last three starts. He's 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA, and 20 strikeouts. Despite his recent struggles, Sale has been exceptional against the Rays this season and that should be no different this weekend.
Lastly, Rick Porcello who has completely sucked this year. It's almost like last year was a fluke. In his last three starts he's 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA, and 14 strikeouts. It is clear that in order to have sustained success, he must keep the ball in the ballpark.
Around the League:
The New York Yankees will travel to Texas, 3.5 games back of the Boston Red Sox. As the Red Sox have a favorable matchup, it is critical that they put additional distance between themselves and their hated rivals.
The Houston Astros maintain the #1 seed in the American League, as it stands. They hold a three game lead over the Cleveland Indians – but Red Sox fans are hopeful that these two teams will quickly flip-flop.
Final Thoughts:
After this scandal with electronics and the Apple watch, I don't think there is any way John Farrell keeps his job next year. You must know what is going on within your dugout. It has the feel of 2011 with Terry Francona. Manager John feels like he last lost a lot of control over this team.


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"My sins have been bound into a yoke; by his hands they were woven together. They have been hung on my neck, and the Lord has sapped my strength. He has given me into the hands of those I cannot withstand." Lamentations 1:14
During the time of the Babylonian takeover of Jerusalem, the people were under much suffering. The Babylonians did not treat them well, though they did allow them to live. The city had been destroyed and the people were in great misery. As Jeremiah sees this, he is weeping, lamenting, because he feels the weight of all the sin that brought on this destruction.
Sin is something that looks and sounds like fun, but it carries a heavy weight to it. People often think that they can handle their own sin, especially those 'little' sins.
It is commonly thought that what does it matter if one tells a little lie? Or if one cheats his neighbor a little bit? Or if one just breaks a little rule once in a while? It really does not affect anyone is what most think. And besides, God will understand.
The truth is that any sin, big or small, has a weight that no one can really bear up under. That weight is the weight of death. It will take away all strength from a person, pulling their head down to the grave as though a millstone was hung on his neck. It is bound tight to the person's neck as a yoke is placed on an animal, that only the master can remove.
Jeremiah had faithfully followed God, but was feeling the weight of the sins of the people. All those sins took a toll on his body and zapped all of his strength.
Even today, if you live in sin, it will take your strength away from you. You will be constantly looking over your back to see if you will be caught in that sin. Fear will keep you awake through the night because death will be knocking on your door. The weight will be more than you can handle.
The good news is that you do not have to bear that weight any more. You can hand it over to Jesus. Turn from the sin and He will get rid of it. He paid the price of death for your sin.
As you turn from your own sin, weep for the sins of others. Lead others to Jesus to get rid of that enormous weight.
I pray today that God will help you turn from all sin; that you will know the freedom Jesus can give you from your sin; and that you will tell others about Jesus.


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Northern Illinois vs Toledo Live Stream: Northern Illinois vs Toledo Live Stream Online Watch The Northern Illinois vs Toledo will do battle in this PAC-12 Conference matchup. Kickoff is set for LIVE Today. The Northern Illinois vs Toledo Bruins are having another tough season. They have the worst record in the PAC-12 and have lost their last two games. The Bruins have either been blown out or had a random close game. Two weeks ago, they lost to the Oregon State Beavers 48-31.
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Stanford running back Cameron Scarlett versus the Northern Illinois vs Toledo defense. Scarlett is coming off a red-letter day against Washington in which he rushed for a career-high 157 yards and a touchdown. He continued to churn out yardage even in obvious running situations late in the game, gaining two first downs that helped the Cardinal secure the upset victory over the Huskies. Northern Illinois vs Toledo's run defense has been a relative strength on an abysmal unit, giving up 162.7 yards per game to rank eighth in the Pac-12 Conference.
The Bruins have turned every Pac-12 opponent into Quarterback U, giving up a school-record nine touchdowns to Washington State's Anthony Gordon, a career-high five touchdowns to Oregon State's Jake Luton (not to mention one on the ground) and an all-too-welcoming 352 yards passing to Arizona freshman Grant Gunnell in his first college start.
First things first: Will quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson return after an injury layoff or will Austin Burton fill in once again? Either way, the Bruins will need to find increased productivity to end their 11-game losing streak against Stanford. The Bruins have featured a balanced attack in their last two games, passing and rushing for at least 200 yards in each one, but it didn't result in a victory.
The Cardinal's offensive line is especially thin after right guard Harry Hattis suffered a season-ending injury against Washington. That left three freshmen to man the line, though they did just fine in continually opening holes for Scarlett. Stanford will be down to third-string quarterback Jack West after coach David Shaw announced that K.J. Costello and backup Davis Mills were out with injuries.
After barely scoring anything for the first few weeks of the season, the Bruins offense seems to be figuring things out. Even with quarterback Thompson-Robinson injured, Burton looks like he can be effective for this Northern Illinois vs Toledo team. Against Oregon State, the offense started slow under Burton, but then went off with the scoring. They just need a better start. The Bruins had a few receivers stand out and they will be dealing with a different Stanford defense than in past seasons. However, Northern Illinois vs Toledo will need to be ready to protect their quarterback as well.


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I watched this documentary a few months ago, and then watched it again.
From Wikopedia…
The Lost Tomb of Jesus is a documentary co-produced and first broadcast on the Discovery Channel and Vision TV in Canada on March 4, 2007 covering the discovery of the Talpiot Tomb. It was directed by Canadian documentary and film maker Simcha Jacobovici and produced by Felix Golubev and Ric Esther Bienstock, while James Cameron served as executive producer. The film has been released in conjunction with a book about the same subject, The Jesus Family Tomb, issued in late February 2007 and co-authored by Jacobovici and Charles R. Pellegrino. The documentary and book's claims are currently the subject of controversy within the archaeological and theological fields, as well as among linguistic and biblical scholars.
The tomb was discovered in 1980 during a housing construction project. Ten ossuaries were found in the cave, including the six that are the subject of Jacobovici's film. However, one of the ten ossuaries went missing years ago, presumably stolen.
"In their movie they are billing it as 'never before reported information,' but it is not new. I published all the details in the Antiqot journal in 1996, and I didn't say it was the tomb of Jesus' family," said Amos Kloner, now professor of archaeology at Israel's Bar-Ilan University and author of the original excavation report for the predecessor of the Israel Antiquities Authority.
"I think it is very unserious work. I do scholarly work…," Kloner said. "[This film] is all nonsense."
Six of the nine remaining ossuaries have inscriptions. The other three ossuaries have no inscriptions. The Lost Tomb of Jesus posits that three of the ossuaries with inscriptions bear the names of figures from the New Testament. The actual meanings of the epigraphs are disputed. The makers of the documentary claim that four leading epigraphers have corroborated their interpretation of the inscriptions. As translated in The Lost Tomb of Jesus and The Jesus Family Tomb, they read as follows:
- Yeshua bar Yehosef, Aramaic for "Jesus son of Joseph"
- Maria, written in Aramaic script, but a Latin form of the Hebrew name "Miriam" ("Mary")
- Yose, a diminutive of "Joseph" mentioned (in its Greek form ιωσης "Joses") as the name of one of Jesus's brothers in the New Testament (Mark 6:3)
- Yehuda bar Yeshua, Possibly Aramaic for "Judah son of Jesus"
- Mariamene e Mara. According to the filmmakers this is Greek for "Mary known as the master." The similar name "Mariamne" is found in the Acts of Philip: Francois Bovon, professor of the history of religion at Harvard University has suggested based on his study of that work that Mariamene, or Mariamne, was the actual name of Mary Magdalene
- Matya, Hebrew for 'Matthew'—not claimed to be Matthew the Evangelist but "possibly a husband of one of the women in an unmarked ossuary." The filmmakers claim that there is evidence that Mary mother of Jesus had many relatives named Matthew
Four leading epigraphers have corroborated the ossuary inscriptions for The Lost Tomb of Jesus, according to the Discovery Channel. William G. Dever, a retired professor of archaeology at the University of Arizona who has been excavating ancient sites in Israel for 50 years, said that some of the inscriptions on the Talpiot ossuaries are unclear, but that all of the names are common.
The film further claims that the tenth ossuary, which went missing years ago, is the James Ossuary purported to contain the body of James, the brother of Jesus.
In The Jesus Family Tomb, Simcha Jacobovici claims the James Ossuary would have been a part of this tomb, but was removed by artifact dealers, and thus discovered separately. The James Ossuary's authenticity has been called into question, and one of its past owners has been charged with fraud in connection to the artifact.
Ben Witherington III, who worked with Jacobovici on a Discovery Channel documentary on the James Ossuary, denies this connection on two grounds:
- "The James ossuary, according to the report of the antiquities dealer that Oded Golan got the ossuary from, said that the ossuary came from Silwan, not Talpiot, and had dirt in it that matched up with the soil in that particular spot in Jerusalem."
- "Furthermore, Eusebius reports that the tomb marker for James's burial was close to where James was martyred near the temple mount, indeed near the famous tombs in the Kidron Valley such as the so-called Tomb of Absalom. Talpiot is nowhere near this locale."
Another consideration was that the measurements of the James Ossuary did not match the measurements listed for the tenth ossuary, which is no longer stored with the rest of the collection. The James Ossuary was listed as being approximately 50 centimeters long by 30 centimeters wide on one end, and 25.5 centimeters on the other end. The tenth ossuary in the Talpiot collection is listed as 60 centimeters long by 26 centimeters by 30 centimeters.[15] Furthermore, Amos Kloner has stated that the tenth ossuary had no inscription. And Joe Zias, former curator of the Rockefeller Museum who received and catalogued the ossuaries, has also refuted this claim on his personal site.
New information has now shown that the discrepancy in the measurements had to do with measuring the base of the ossuary, which is indeed 50 centimeters, rather than the length. The top length of the James ossuary, not the base, which is trapezoid in shape, according to the latest remeasurement carried out by the Israel Antiquities Authority, is 57.5 centimeters. However, this does not in any way prove that the James ossuary is the missing tenth Talpiot ossuary.
A central question has regarded the probability that a tomb might contain the specific group of names as the Talpiot Tomb. Experts such as Richard Bauckham, David Mavorah and Amos Kloner have asserted the commonness of archaeological inscriptions bearing the name "Jesus." Paul Maier, professor of ancient history at Western Michigan University, notes that there were at least 21 "Yeshuas" or Jesuses famous enough to be included in the histories of Josephus. For their part, the filmmakers present a statistical study conducted by Andrey Feuerverger, professor of statistics and mathematics at the University of Toronto, which concluded that while the names are not uncommon, the conservative odds that such names would be found together in any one tomb around are (depending on variables) from 600 to 1 to a million to 1 in favor of it being authentic.
However, Dr. Feuerverger later said, "It is not in the purview of statistics to conclude whether or not this tombsite is that of the New Testament family. Any such conclusion much more rightfully belongs to the purview of biblical historical scholars who are in a much better position to assess the assumptions entering into the computations. The role of statistics here is primarily to attempt to assess the odds of an equally (or more) 'compelling' cluster of names arising purely by chance under certain random sampling assumptions and under certain historical assumptions. In this respect I now believe that I should not assert any conclusions connecting this tomb with any hypothetical one of the NT family." Dr. Feuerverger's assessment was based on several assumptions:
- that the Maria on one of the ossuaries is the mother of the Jesus found on another box,
- that Mariamne is his wife
- that Joseph (inscribed as the nickname Jose) is his brother
Support for these assumptions comes, according to the documentary, from the following claims:
- Mariamne is the Greek form of Mary.
- Mary Magdelene is believed to have spoken and preached in Greek.
- Jose was the nickname used for Jesus' little brother.
- The Talpiot Tomb is the only place where ossuaries have ever been found with the names Mariamne and Jose, even though the root forms of the name were very popular and thousands of ossuaries have been unearthed.
Further information regarding the methodology of this study is due to be published soon.
On February 25, 2007, Andrey Feuerverger, professor of statistics and mathematics at the University of Toronto conducted a statistical calculation on the name cluster as part of The Lost Tomb of Jesus. He concluded that the odds are at least 600 to 1 that the combination of names appeared in the tomb by chance. The methodology of this study has been submitted to a journal, but in the meantime a summary can be found on the Discovery Channel and documentary websites. A more detailed explanation of the statistical approach can be found also on Prof. Andrey Feuerverger's website as well as in a recent interview given to Scientific American. The frequency distribution for names prevalent during the period of time during which ossuary burials took place was inferred by studying two key sources:
- Rahmani's Catalogue of Jewish Ossuaries in the Collections of the State of Israel.
- Tal Ilan's Lexicon of Jewish Names in Late Antiquity.
According to Prof. Feuerverger, the goal of the statistical analysis is to assess the probability level of a null hypothesis, I quote:
A 'null hypothesis' can be thought of here as asserting that this cluster of names arose purely by chance under random sampling from the onomasticon. The alternative hypothesis is the opposite of this, in some sense. It is not in the purview of statistics to conclude whether or not this tombsite is that of the New Testament family.
Feuerverger multiplied the instances that each name appeared during the tomb's time period with the instances of every other name. He initially found "Jesus Son of Joseph" appeared once out of 190 times, Mariamne appeared once out of 160 times and so on:
|Jesus son of Joseph
He next divided 2,432,000 by 4 to account for bias in the historical record and further divided that result (608,000) by 1,000 to attempt to account for the number of explored tombs from first century Jerusalem.
Feuerverger's conclusions have been called into question:
- According to some multiplying the individual names' probabilities is wrong because many permutations of the same names are possible.
- The inclusion of Mariamne in the calculation is based on two assumptions:
- Mary Magdelene in NT was Jesus' wife. (There is no historical evidence for this.)
- Mary Magdelene's real name was Mariamne. (This assumption is disputed by some experts.)
- The calculation adjusts only for the 1,000 tombs found in Jerusalem instead of the whole Jewish populace that lived in the area. This effectively assumes that Jesus family in NT did indeed have a family tomb and it was among the 1000 tombs found in Jerusalem area. There is no historical evidence for this assumption. Some experts, including archaeologist Amos Kloner (the one who excavated the tombs) do not accept that the poor family from Nazareth had a family tomb in Jerusalem.
- The inscription "Judah son of Jesus" is ignored in the calculation. Since there is no historical evidence that Jesus had any children, some people believe this inscription should be included in the calculation to reduce the probability that the tomb belongs to the Jesus family.
Randy Ingermanson and Jay Cost did their own statistical analysis in which they looked at the probabilities given various assumptions.
- What they called a 'typical historian', they calculate, would odds of about 1 in 19,000 that this is the real tomb of Jesus.
- A historian who wanted it to be the real tomb very badly would make assumptions that would change the odds to about 1 in 18.
- A historian leaning towards it being the real tomb but "staying within the bounds of historical reasonableness" would make assumptions that would make the odds about 1 in 1,100.
- Another historian leaning against it being the real tomb, but also working within the same bounds, would estimate odds of about 1 in five million.
- And of course a Christian who insisted that Jesus ascended to Heaven would say it is impossible for this to be his tomb.
Stephan Pfann (president of Jerusalem's University of the Holy Land) points out that the commonality of these names suggests that the probability is much lower. "Remarkably, a mere 16 of the 72 personal names [found on ossuaries] account for 75% of the inscribed names." Among these "top 16" names are Mary, Joseph, Jesus, Matthew, and Judas.
Richard Bauckham (Professor of New Testament Studies and Bishop Wardlaw Professor at St Andrews) compiled the following data to show just how common the names on these ossuaries are:
- "Out of a total number of 2625 males, these are the figures for the ten most popular male names among Palestinian Jews. The first figure is the total number of occurrences (from this number, with 2625 as the total for all names, you could calculate percentages), while the second is the number of occurrences specifically on ossuaries."
|Total References
|Found on Ossuaries
|Percent of Total References (2625)
- "For women, we have a total of 328 occurrences (women's names are much less often recorded than men's), and figures for the 4 most popular names are thus:"
|Total References
|Found on Ossuaries
|Percent of Total References (328)
Colin Aitken, a professor of forensic statistics at Edinburgh University, stated that the study is based on a number of assumptions, and that, "even if we accept the assumptions, 600 to one is certainly not the odds in favour of this tomb being Jesus." meaning that even if it were true that to find this cluster of names is very unlikely it does not follow that therefore this is probably the tomb of the family of Jesus. According to the Discovery Channel documentary Feuerverger's statistical model concludes that there is only a 1/600 chance that the Talpiot tomb is not the Jesus family tomb if Mariamne can be linked to Mary Magdalene. In his personal website Feuerverger has distanced himself from this claim, explaining: "I now believe that I should not assert any conclusions connecting this tomb with any hypothetical one of the NT family." Also, the Discovery Channel website has removed all previous associations of Feuerverger's name with the 1/600 estimate of the Talpiot tomb not belonging to Jesus family.
Following the March 4, 2007 airing of The Lost Tomb of Jesus on the Discovery Channel, American journalist Ted Koppel aired a program entitled The Lost Tomb of Jesus—A Critical Look, whose guests included the director Simcha Jacobovici, James Tabor, Chair of the Department of Religious Studies at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte who served as a consultant and advisor on the documentary, Jonathan Reed, Professor of Religion at the University of LaVerne and co-author of Excavating Jesus Beneath the Stones, Behind the Text, and William Dever, an archaeologist with over 50 years experience in Middle Eastern archaeological digs.
The Washington Post in an article of 2/28/07 cites Dever as being "widely considered the dean of biblical archaeology among U.S. scholars" and quotes him as saying, "I just think it's a shame the way this story is being hyped and manipulated" and "all of the names [contained in the tomb] are common."
Alan Cooperman, writer of The Washington Post article also states this: "Similar assessments came yesterday from two Israeli scholars, Amos Kloner, who originally excavated the tomb, and Joe Zias, former curator of archaeology at the Israeli Antiquities Authority. Kloner told the Jerusalem Post that the documentary is "nonsense." Zias described it in an e-mail to The Washington Post as a "hyped up film which is intellectually and scientifically dishonest."
Israeli archaeologist Amos Kloner, who was among the first to examine the tomb when it was first discovered, said the names marked on the coffins were very common at the time. "I don't accept the news that it was used by Jesus or his family," and "The documentary filmmakers are using it to sell their film." he told the BBC News website.
During the documentary The Lost Tomb of Jesus, various professionals had claimed:
- concerning the ossuaries marked Yeshua` ("Jesus") and the one believed to be that of Mary Magdalene: because "the DNA did not match, the forensic archaeologist concluded that they must be husband and wife";
- that testing showed that there was a match between the patina on the James and Yeshua` ossuaries and referred to the James ossuary as the "missing link" from the tomb of Yeshua` (Jesus);
- and that an ossuary that became missing from the tomb of Yeshua` had actually been the infamous James ossuary believed to contain the remains of the brother of Yeshua`.
During Ted Koppel's critique, The Lost Tomb of Jesus—a Critical Look, Koppel revealed he had denials from these three people Simcha Jacobovici had misquoted in the documentary.
- Koppel had a written denial from the forensic archaeologist asserting that he had NOT concluded that the remains of Yeshua` and Miriamne showed they were husband and wife. In fact, he had logically stated, "you cannot genetically test for marriage."
- Koppel had a written denial from the Suffolk Crime Lab Director (Robert Genna) asserting that he had NOT stated the James ossuary patina matched that of the Yeshua` ossuary. He denied ever saying they were a match, and said he'd have to do much more comparison testing of other tombs before he could draw any conclusions.
- Koppel had a verbal denial from Professor Amos Kloner, the archaeologist who had supervised the initial 1980 dig of the tomb of Yeshua`, with whom he spoke on 3/4/07, asserting that the ossuary that later turned up missing from the alleged Tomb of 'Jesus' could not have been what is now known as the James ossuary. In fact he indicated there was evidence that it was not the same by saying that the now missing ossuary he had seen and photographed and catalogued in 1980 had been totally unmarked, whereas the James ossuary is marked with the name of James and a rosette.
The archaeologist William Dever summed it up when he stated on Koppel's critical analysis, The Lost Tomb of Jesus—A Critical Look, that Jacobovici's and Cameron's "conclusions were already drawn in the beginning" of the inquiry and that their "argument goes far beyond any reasonable interpretation."
Although the film's premise questions theological renderings of the Bible's account of Jesus' resurrection and ascension (which are central tenets of Christianity, affirmed also in the Nicene Creed), the filmmakers exclusively reject this claim. Speaking at the news conference held at the New York Public Library, film's religious consultant James Tabor stated that the fact that Jesus' tomb was discovered does not put in doubt biblical accounts of his resurrection, which he said could have actually been spiritual.
With regards to the ascension, however, the documentary's website suggests that while the tomb's discovery does not render impossible the notion of a spiritual ascension, it does do so for those who believe that Jesus physically ascended to heaven.
Later in an interview, Simcha Jacobovici said that the film can be seen as a proof for those who question Jesus' existence, and stressed on the idea the film being about science, truth and facts. But it's worth mentioning that only the few lines of theological considerations drawn on the film's website, (resurrecting from a second tomb after being moved or the spiritual only ascent to Heaven) are directly contradicting the majority of Christian views, which make this confirmation of Jesus historicity at least of no use from this perspective, if not tearing apart the belief.
Asked what he believes about the resemblance with The Da Vinci Code, executive producer James Cameron said he looked "at it as paving the way for some of these ideas that some people may consider to be quite radical, but were rather well researched in that movie" and, although the documentary team was working for a year when it was released, they decided to wait for another year "to let these ideas marinate."
The film proposes new interpretations of the events regarding Jesus depicted in the New Testament, as seen by mainstream Christianity. The film's suggestions contradict the basis of the faith in the majority's view, if considering only Catholicism and Eastern Orthodoxy by number of members (other denominations' teachings being contradicted at least partially), and may be considered blasphemies[64][65][66] by the Church:
- Jesus remains found (see Death and resurrection of Jesus, Nicene Creed)
- Presumably only spiritual ascension, not a bodily ascension (see Hypostatic union, resurrecting Lazarus)
- Mary remains found (see Assumption of Mary, Dormition of the Theotokos)
- Jesus being married (see Clerical celibacy (Catholic Church))
- Jesus having a child (see Clerical celibacy (Catholic Church))
- Jesus having brothers and/or sisters (see the discussion about Jesus' siblings)
- Presumably Mary not being virgin (see the perpetual virginity of Mary)
- New tomb of Jesus (see Church of the Holy Sepulchre)
- Presumably Jesus body being moved (see Empty tomb)
- Ordaining women (see Apostolic Succession, Ordination, Ordination of women)
- Appeal to sources not included in the Biblical canon, of Gnostic origin, such as the Gospel of Mary Magdalene or Acts of Philip, considered by scholars to be written later (see Origin of the canonical Gospels, dating of canonical Gospels, New Testament apocrypha)
The claim that Jesus was married also undermines the theological metaphor of the Church being the "Bride of Christ" (found in the writings of the New Testament). Jimmy Akin, director of Apologetics and Evangelization at Catholic Answers, wrote: "This image would never have arisen if there was a Mrs. Jesus living right there in Jerusalem…. We know about [the wives of religion founders] because they were honored figures as wives of The Founder, and if Jesus had a wife then (a) we would know about it and (b) the whole Church-as-the-Bride-of-Christ metaphor would never have come into existence." As for a possible "son of Jesus," he noted: "We tend to know about even the daughters of religious founders. Muhammad's daughter Fatima comes to mind. It would be much harder to sneak a forgotten son by the eyes of history…. It's not just hard to sneak sons past because patriarchal cultures focus more on sons; it's also because of this: In traditional societies, the son is looked on as the father's natural successor."
Conforming or Contradicting Islamic views?
Finding someone's remains (other than Jesus) in Jesus' tomb conforms the Muslim belief that a substitute for him was crucified, while he was raised bodily to heaven. The Islamic view of his disappearance, as mentioned in the Qur'an, states: That they said (in boast), "We killed Al-Masih 'Isa the son of Maryam, the Messenger of Allah"; but they killed him not, nor crucified him, but so it was made to appear to them. The general Muslim interpretation of the verse is that God, to revenge from Judas' betrayal to Jesus (the fatherless prophet), made his face similar to that of Jesus, while Jesus ascended into heaven and is to return near the end of time and kill the anti-Christ. Accordingly, the discovered remains in his tomb would then actually belong to Judas, a Roman guard, or a volunteering disciple.
On the other hand, the documentary itself contradicts Islamic views beacause it specifies that it was presumebly Jesus who was buried there, and its website states that "If Jesus' mortal remains have indeed been found, this would contradict only the idea of a physical ascension", which Muslims endorse.
Early Christianity scholar R. Joseph Hoffmann, chair of the skeptically minded Committee for the Scientific Examination of Religion, says the film alerts the public to the fact that there are no secure conclusions when it comes to the foundational history of a religious tradition. But he charges that the film "is all about bad assumptions," beginning with the assumption that the boxes contain Jesus of Nazareth and his family. From his view as an historian specializing in the social history of earliest Christianity, he found it "amazing how evidence falls into place when you begin with the conclusion—and a hammer."
When interviewed about the upcoming documentary, Amos Kloner, who oversaw the original archaeological dig of this tomb in 1980 said:
- "It makes a great story for a TV film, but it's completely impossible. It's nonsense."
Newsweek reports that the archaeologist who personally numbered the ossuaries dismissed any potential connection:
- "Simcha has no credibility whatsoever," says Joe Zias, who was the curator for anthropology and archeology at the Rockefeller Museum in Jerusalem from 1972 to 1997 and personally numbered the Talpiot ossuaries. "He's pimping off the Bible … He got this guy Cameron, who made 'Titanic' or something like that—what does this guy know about archeology? I am an archeologist, but if I were to write a book about brain surgery, you would say, 'Who is this guy?' People want signs and wonders. Projects like these make a mockery of the archeological profession."
The aforementioned Joe Zias has published in his own site a "viewers' guide" to the Talpiot Tomb documentary, in which he systematically rebuts the film's argumentation and gives much background information about the people involved in it.
Stephen Pfann, president of Jerusalem's University of the Holy Land and an expert in Semitic languages, who was interviewed in the documentary, also said the film's hypothesis holds little weight:
- "How possible is it?" Pfann said. "On a scale of one through 10—10 being completely possible—it's probably a one, maybe a one and a half."
Pfann also thinks the inscription read as "Jesus" has been misread and suggests that the name "Hanun" might be a more accurate rendering.
The Washington Post reports that William G. Dever (mentioned above as excavating ancient sites in Israel for 50 years) offered the following:
- "I've known about these ossuaries for many years and so have many other archaeologists, and none of us thought it was much of a story, because these are rather common Jewish names from that period. It's a publicity stunt, and it will make these guys very rich, and it will upset millions of innocent people because they don't know enough to separate fact from fiction."
Asbury Theological Seminary's Ben Witherington III points out some other circumstantial problems with linking this tomb to Christ:
- "So far as we can tell, the earliest followers of Jesus never called Jesus 'son of Joseph'. It was outsiders who mistakenly called him that."
- "The ancestral home of Joseph was Bethlehem, and his adult home was Nazareth. The family was still in Nazareth after he [Joseph] was apparently dead and gone. Why in the world would he be buried (alone at this point) in Jerusalem?"
- "One of the ossuaries has the name Jude son of Jesus. We have no historical evidence of such a son of Jesus, indeed we have no historical evidence he was ever married."
- "The Mary ossuaries (there are two) do not mention anyone from Migdal. It simply has the name Mary—and that's about the most common of all ancient Jewish female names."
- "We have names like Matthew on another ossuary, which don't match up with the list of [Jesus's] brothers' names."
The Archaeological Institute of America, self-described on their website as "North America's oldest and largest organization devoted to the world of archeology," has published online their own criticism of the "Jesus tomb" claim:
"The identification of the Talpiyot tomb as the tomb of Jesus and his family is based on a string of problematic and unsubstantiated claims […] [It] contradicts the canonical Gospel accounts of the death and burial of Jesus and the earliest Christian traditions about Jesus. This claim is also inconsistent with all of the available information—historical and archaeological—about how Jews in the time of Jesus buried their dead, and specifically the evidence we have about poor, non-Judean families like that of Jesus. It is a sensationalistic claim without any scientific basis or support."
David Mavorah, a curator of the Israel museum in Jerusalem, points out that the names on the ossuaries were extremely common. "We know that Joseph, Jesus and Mariamne were all among the most common names of the period. To start with all these names being together in a single tomb and leap from there to say this is the tomb of Jesus is a little far-fetched, to put it politely." David Mavorah is an expert of Israeli Antiquity, and (presumably) not an expert of statistics. However, Dr. Andrey Feuerverger, the statistician cited by the makers of the documentary, has said that determination of the identity of those in the tomb was the purview of biblical historians, and not statisticians. For another interpretation of the statistics see the statistics section above.
Professor Amos Kloner, former Jerusalem district archaeologist of the Israel Antiquities Authority and the first archaeologist to examine the tomb in 1980, told the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper that the name Jesus had been found 71 times in burial caves at around that time. Furthermore, he said that the inscription on the ossuary is not clear enough to ascertain, and although the idea fails to hold up by archaeological standards it makes for profitable television. Quote: "The new evidence is not serious, and I do not accept that it is connected to the family of Jesus…. They just want to get money for it."
Dr. Richard Bauckham, professor at the University of St Andrews, catalogued ossuary names from that region since 1980. He records that based on the catalogue, "Jesus" was the 6th most popular name of Jewish men, and "Mary/Mariamne" was the single most popular name of Jewish women at that time. Therefore, finding two ossuaries containing the names "Jesus" and "Mary/Mariamne" is not significant at all, and the chances of it being the ossuaries of Jesus and Mary Magdalene are "very small indeed."
Concerning the inscription attributed to Jesus son of Joseph, Steve Caruso, a professional Aramaic translator using a computer to visualize different interpretations, claims that although it is possible to read it as "Yeshua" that "overall it is a very strong possibility that this inscription is not 'Yeshua` bar Yehosef.'"
Name "Mary" and derivative of it may have been used by 25% of Jewish women at that time.
[edit] Publicity
Lawrence E. Stager, the Dorot professor of archaeology of Israel at Harvard, said the documentary was "exploiting the whole trend that caught on with The Da Vinci Code. One of the problems is there are so many biblically illiterate people around the world that they don't know what is real judicious assessment and what is what some of us in the field call 'fantastic archaeology.'"
William G. Dever said, "I'm not a Christian. I'm not a believer. I don't have a dog in this fight. I just think it's a shame the way this story is being hyped and manipulated.
Jodi Magness criticized the decision of the documentary makers to make their claims at a news conference rather than in a peer-reviewed scientific article. By going directly to the media, she said, the filmmakers "have set it up as if it's a legitimate academic debate, when the vast majority of scholars who specialize in archeology of this period have flatly rejected this."
Joe Zias, former curator of archeology at the Israeli Antiquities Authority, described it in an e-mail to The Washington Post as a "hyped-up film which is intellectually and scientifically dishonest." He also wrote an extended Viewers Guide to Understanding the Talpiot Tomb documentary, published on his web site.
François Bovon has also written to say that his comments were misused. In a letter to the Society of Biblical Literature, he wrote:
- As I was interviewed for the Discovery Channel's program The Lost Tomb of Jesus, I would like to express my opinion here.
- First, I have now seen the program and am not convinced of its main thesis. When I was questioned by Simcha Jacobovici and his team the questions were directed toward the Acts of Philip and the role of Mariamne in this text. I was not informed of the whole program and the orientation of the script.
- Second, having watched the film, in listening to it, I hear two voices, a kind of double discourse. On one hand there is the wish to open a scholarly discussion; on the other there is the wish to push a personal agenda. I must say that the reconstructions of Jesus' marriage with Mary Magdalene and the birth of a child belong for me to science fiction.
- Third, to be more credible, the program should deal with the very ancient tradition of the Holy Sepulcher, since the emperor Constantine in the fourth century C.E. built this monument on the spot at which the emperor Hadrian in the second century C.E. erected the forum of Aelia Capitolina and built on it a temple to Aphrodite at the place where Jesus' tomb was venerated.
- Fourth, I do not believe that Mariamne is the real name of Mary of Magdalene. Mariamne is, besides Maria or Mariam, a possible Greek equivalent, attested by Josephus, Origen, and the Acts of Philip, for the Semitic Myriam.
- Fifth, the Mariamne of the Acts of Philip is part of the apostolic team with Philip and Bartholomew; she teaches and baptizes. In the beginning, her faith is stronger than Philip's faith. This portrayal of Mariamne fits very well with the portrayal of Mary of Magdala in the Manichean Psalms, the Gospel of Mary, and Pistis Sophia. My interest is not historical, but on the level of literary traditions. I have suggested this identification in 1984 already in an article of New Testament Studies.
- François Bovon, Harvard Divinity School


text:
We went for an early morning kayak on the lake and paddled with 2 dolphins.It was lovely we were with them for about a km and once one surfaced about 10' from my kayak.You could hear them blow air out as they surfaced.
Nearing the end of the paddle there was a small fibre glass runabout half cabin with about 6 big guys in it that came flying along did a really sharp turn and stopped. As it did one of the guys sitting in the back fully clothed did a slow backward flip off the boat and into the lake..
Hee hee...silence.
I think they were all shocked and embarassed as they knew we'd seen them..He got himself together and swam over and got back in to nervous laughter and jokes.I think they'll be a bit more cautious after that. Lucky its summer and the lake is warm.
I noticed a joey who looked sick hanging around the house.It was just lying around and looked like it had a stomach upset. Once they are on their own like that they are easy pickings for dogs etc.
We rang the wildlife people who came out and picked it up ( clucking and growling) to check it.They then picked the ticks off it and patted it and said it was too far gone.' If we can pick them up they are pretty bad'. They put it in the shade where it was cooler and it died about 2hrs later. Once they get upset stomachs there isn't much they can do for them. It looked about the age to be freshly weaned so the stress of weaning could have set it off.
When I'm not painting my greatest love is sailboarding.
I don't have many of sailboarding photos so I persuaded my partner to come and take some photos and I went out in a strong wind on Tuesday.
As the wind picks up in strength you need to use a smaller board and sail to keep in control. I used a slightly larger board than appropriate as I can sail it better and I wanted decent photos. It doesn't blow strongly enough ( 25kts +) to get to sail my smaller board much so I've only used it a few times and I knew I wouldn't be able to gybe ( turn ) succesfully on it.
Ugh..I've been hobbling around on painkillers the last few days.
The first run out I tried to jump some waves for the camera and got the sail a little far forward and got whiplashed as I was smashed over the front into the water.. I can jump but just made errors. After that I decided to play it safe after as I was a bit overpowered and on the edge.
If the board is too big for the strong wind and big chop it bounces around, gets uncontrollable and the wind can get under them and pick them up.
Later that day the wind got under mine and threw it , plus me attached by the harness, into a downwind jump. I got smashed onto the deck thigh first. It was so painful I wondered how I was going to start and sail in .The waves were crashing over the top of me as I lay in the water ready to waterstart. (Waterstarting is when you raise the sail up into the air to catch the wind and then it pulls you up onto the board ready to sail away. My board is too small and unstable to try and stand on it and pull the sail out of the water.)
So the end result of the day was 2 whiplash injuries, an injured leg and a strained ankle when the board flipped upside down with my foot was still in the strap .
See below-
This was my last run for the day. I'd been out for 2hrs and was tired and also had injuries so it was asking for trouble to keep sailing.
With the ankle I've found out that if you ignore the pain and just keep going sprained ankles often come good and this one did thank goodness.
Grr. It's been blowing for 3 days now although a lot less than the day I was out. That's rare for around here and I can't sail..
I just heard on the radio that there have been several rescues on the lake in the last few days..I wonder how many people in small boats don't check the weather forecast before they head out?
It's been great for sailboarding and sailing.I rarely get injured sailboarding despite going out in strong winds and people who go out in those conditions have sailed for years and know what they are doing.We love it!
Here's some more pics.
|Here's a hotshot to show you what can be done in those conditions..It's a real buzz!I have done decent jumps at times but not often lately.I was too overpowered to safely try that day. You can get slammed pretty badly if you are overpowered.
Its now 8 days later and I regret I didn't look after my leg better earlier . I toughed it out and ignored it and only just got some crutches and anti imflammatories yesterday. I'm supposed to keep off it but I'm not really doing that as well as I should. I hope it settles soon.
Post note - It's 10 days later and I'm still hobbling around on crutches but it's gradually improving. Before my injury we have had a pretty average season wind wise - not as much as usual.
I think I must have been a sacrifice to the wind gods as it's blown almost everyday since I got injured!


text:
Hi there,
is anybody currently working on the "official" nav display code in FGDATA/Nasal/canvas...?
I started to review that code and will also dive into the underlying MapStructure code with the goal to adapt/extend it for CRJ700 family.
To avoid duplicate code/work and conflicts kindly let me know who is working on this and if there are pending merges I should wait for.
Also a list of aircrafts that really use that code would be highly appreciated as I found out that some aircrafts use their local copy of the code so I believe those won't be affected by any changes, neither improvements nor possible problems due to changes.
cheers Henning


text:
Brazil is at the end of a cycle
October 01, 2015
Economic growth is slowing. Inflation is high. The wider global environment is not encouraging, with Europe's sovereign debt crisis worsening and Asia slowing. And house prices are now falling in Brazil, in real terms.
Brazil's composite FIPEZAP house price index registered its lowest year-on-year nominal price rise since data became available, with 4.49% year-on-year (y-o-y) price rise in May 2015. This is well below the 7.6% y-o-y inflation rate for the same month, so housing values aren't keeping pace with inflation. In real terms house prices fell 3.65%, after adjustment for inflation. Average price growth has been slowing down from 18.7% in 2012, 12.3% in 2013, down to 10.2% in 2014.
During 2014:
- In Sao Paulo, house prices had risen by an average of 11.3% (4.7% inflation-adjusted), the lowest year-on-year rise since 2008. House prices in Sao Paulo increased 14.1% in 2013, 20.5% in 2012, 27.1% in 2011, and 22.2% in 2010.
- In Rio de Janeiro, house prices had increased by an average of 12.0% (5.3% inflation-adjusted), far lower than the 41.3% y-o-y rise seen in 2011.
Since then house-price rises have slowed most in the cities where they had risen most, like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
House prices in São Paulo rose by an amazing 223.5% from January 2008 to May 2015 (107.8% inflation-adjusted), and in Rio de Janeiro house prices rose by an even more spectacular 266.1% (135.2% inflation-adjusted).
The Brazilian property market's staggering growth over the last seven years was mostly supported by a booming economy – prompting finance professor Fabio Gallo to argue, "We don't have a bubble. A bubble means a lot of increases in prices for nothing. You had real reasons for the expansion of the prices in Brazil. After this, we have to reduce, to put the prices in their correct level as a matter of fact." The country's labour data reported GDP per capita increased by a whopping 60% since 2008.
The 2007 discovery of enormous oil fields located deep beneath a layer of salt in the Atlantic seabed also boosted the energy industry's demand for residential and office space. Demand continued to surge following the 2009 announcement that Rio de Janeiro would host the 2016 Olympic Games. Rapid development of the mortgage market, which followed the sustained decrease of historically high interest rates, and legal reforms that streamlined the foreclosure process, also supported the surge in home prices, according to Fitch Ratings.
However, there has been a noticeable slowing down of property price rises in the past couple of years. And the price correction is expected to continue as the country contends with high inflation and weak growth, compounded by the depreciation of the real.
Brazil's Central Bank is not in stimulus mode and will undoubtedly keep increasing the benchmark interest rate, thereby discouraging prospective homebuyers.
The market is also adjusting from the over-investment in housing in the mid 2000s with the launching of the My Home, My Life program. The program funded developers to build low to moderate income housing and expanded the market for 30-year mortgages in Brazil.
Poor sales activity and a supply glut are greatly affecting developer earnings. Total home sales in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro dropped 35% and 29%, respectively, last year compared with 2013, according to the Brazilian construction sector trade group CBIC. One of Brazil's biggest home builders, São Paulo-based PDG Realty SA, for example, posted a net loss of BRL 529 million (USD 167 million) in 2014 compared to a net loss of BRL 271 million (USD 86 million) in 2013.
The house-price growth slowdown is occurring across most of the country. Except for Vitória and Porto Alegre, all the other major Brazilian cities saw house price increases slow from December 2014 to March 2015.
|House price change (y-o-y)
|% difference
|São Vicente
|Praia Grande
|Vila Velha
|Santo André
|São Caetano do Sul
|São Bernardo do Campo
|Belo Horizonte
|Distrito Federal
|Porto Alegre
Yet despite the sluggish economy and weak sales, analysts expect the Brazilian property market to remain resilient in 2015 – mainly driven by government investment in social housing, strong job creation and the Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympics. According to the Sao Paulo construction association (Secovi-SP), the market in Brazil's financial capital has generally been slow. New-build launches had dropped by 16% in 2014. But there was a marked improvement in sales activity in November-December. Imoconnect, one of Brazil's largest nationwide property networks, also expressed optimism for 2015, reporting a 45% increase in sales in the third quarter of 2014.
"Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil but we take some comfort from the fact that the country's frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing. It's still early days but the initial signs are that Brazil's housing bubble is deflating via a gradual moderation in prices rather than via a sharp and sudden drop in prices that can cause steep falls in household wealth and destabilize the financial system," said Neil Shearing of Capital Economics.
Weakening economy, high inflation
Brazil's economy grew a meagre 0.1% in 2014, after real GDP growth rates of 2.7% in 2013, 1.8% in 2012, 3.9% in 2011, and 7.6% in 2010, according to the Central Bank. Brazilian GDP is expected to actually decline by 1.1% this year, as the central bank has signaled it will continue to raise the Selic rate to curb inflation.
Weak economic growth and rising interest rates are two factors which, in almost any economy, can be predicted to hit house prices.
Brazil's economy is facing a double whammy of rising prices and sluggish growth. The Central Bank, in its recent quarterly report, estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 1.1% in 2015. The bank's inflation outlook, on the other hand, has been raised from 7.9% to 9.0%.
This deadly combination of rising prices and slow growth is undermining the economy, the result of President Dilma Rousseff wrongly pursuing expansionary and populist policies in the aftermath of the global recession. To boost the economy, a tax relief program was introduced, along with subsidies and protection for industry, increased social welfare benefits for low-income earners and enormous infrastructure programs.
The Central Bank of Brazil also slashed its benchmark short-term SELIC rate from 13.75% in December 2008 to 8.75% by July 2009. Brazil was swamped with consumer credit from state-controlled banks during her first term, from 2011 through 2014. These resulted in a surge in wage growth, pushing prices higher. But while wage growth has since slowed, prices have continued to rise, leaving the Central Bank unable to decrease interest rates as it tries to curb inflation today.
In 2014, GDP grew by a paltry 0.1%, the slowest since 2009. Inflation, meanwhile, is mounting at 8.1% in June, the highest it's been since 2003. The country's benchmark interest rate has also escalated, with Brazil's central bank raising it to a six-year high of 13.75% in the same month.
Brazil's economy grew by an average of 4.3% from 2004 to 2006 and then by an average of 5.6% during 2007 and 2008. Brazil wasn't spared in 2009, but the economic contraction was minimized at 0.3%. Real GDP growth rates were 7.5% in 2010 and 2.7% in 2011, despite the adverse impact of the Eurozone debt crisis.
Real sinks to 10-year low, crisis scenario?
Brazil's real has plunged as crude oil prices - the country's major export - continue to fall. There is also concern that the country could lose its investment-grade credit rating. Also, if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, that could dampen demand for high-yielding emerging market assets.
The currency has lost 27% over the past year, the most among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The real approached a 10-year low of 3.2282 on July 08. Net overseas holdings of future contracts betting against the real has risen to a record USD 36.5 billion. Brazil sold the equivalent of USD 97.9 million of currency swaps and rolled over contracts worth USD 631 million to support the currency and limit import price increases.
The legacy of the riots
In June 2013 riots exploded, precipitated by a BRL0.20 (USD0.10) raise in public transport fares, and complaints about excessive spending on mega-sporting events. But the real causes go deeper. Brazil's infrastructure is in terrible shape – education is poor, public transport is terrible, state provision of ports, airports, and health is of very poor quality. Many Brazilians spend up to four hours per day in traffic jams, either in their cars or on crowded public transport.
Brazil is not a poor country and the tax rates are extremely high. So the protests are better seen as an outburst of popular frustration at corruption – a protest against an intolerable situation familiar to many citizens in many other developing countries
"Brazilians see no reason to have such bad infrastructure when there is so much wealth that is so highly taxed," noted a CNN report. "Aside from the problem of infrastructure, several corruption scandals which remain without trial, with the cases tending to end with the acquittal of the defendants.
The corruption scandal involving oil giant Petrobras and the country's largest engineering and construction firms, continues to shake the government. Several executives from Brazil's top builders have been indicted for the multibillion-dollar kickback scheme uncovered at Petrobas, while the investigation has implicated politicians, most from President Rousseff's Workers' Party.
Protests in the streets have been mounting as President Rousseff's approval rating hit a historic low, further threatening the country's already weak economy.
"The biggest corruption scandal in Brazilian history finally ended with the conviction of the defendants and now the government is trying to reverse the trial by using maneuvers through unbelievable constitutional amendments: one, the PEC 37, which will annihilate the investigative powers of the prosecutors of the public ministry (the Brazilian equivalent of the District Attorneys), delegating the responsibility of investigation entirely to the Federal Police. Moreover, another proposal seeks to subject decisions of the Brazilian Supreme Court to the Congress - a complete violation of the three powers," noted a CNN report.
Tighter lending seen in Brazil's mortgage market
Pro-market reforms helped greatly expand Brazil's mortgage market under former President Lula da Silva. The first big breakthrough was the introduction of fiduciary alienation, whereby the buyer becomes the owner of the property only after it has been fully paid. Meanwhile, the bank or lending institution holds ownership of property, while the loan is being repaid.
This gives banks security, if buyers default. In the past, banks were reluctant to lend to households, because Brazilian courts were biased in favour of borrowers.
Result: mortgage lending in Brazil grew by an average 37% per year between 2007 and 2014. However outstanding home loans still represent just 8.5% of gross domestic product, or the equivalent of 14% of outstanding bank credit, according to Reuters.Brazil's mortgage market has several unique features.
- The government collects Fundo de Garantia por Tempo de Serviço (FGTS) or Labor Tax Severance Fund and uses it for loans offered to low- to middle-income housing, at below-market rates.
- The country also has a system of tax-free savings deposits in banks, known as SBPE (Sistema Brasileiro de Poupança e Empréstimo, the Brazilian savings and loan system). Banks are required to use part of these SBPE deposits for mortgage loans at a set rate over and a special inflation index. The FGTS and SBPE together form Sistema Financeiro da Habitação (SFH), the Brazilian financial housing system. SFH offers households an opportunity to turn higher incomes into mortgage payments, greatly increasing housing finance volumes.
According to a Warnock & Warnock (2008) study, out of a stock of 54 million housing units, around 9.5 million were financed under the SFH, administered by Caixa Economica Federal (CEF).
Mortgage lending is expected to lose steam as interest rates continue to rise and home buyers pull back, and more borrowers fall behind on their mortgages. "We are witnessing a deterioration of several economic factors that provided the sector with solid support in the past," according to Octavio de Lazari Jr., president of Brazilian mortgage association Abecip.
In 2014, mortgage loans funded from the country's SBPE savings and loan system increased by only 3.4%, according to Abecip, the lowest since 2003. Disbursements had surged 31.9% in 2013. From January to April 2015, the total was 3.2% down from the same period in 2014.
The new administration of president Dilma Rousseff is also committed to restricting lending from the big state banks. For example state-run Caixa, responsible for about 70% of Brazil's home mortgages, will lend only 50% of the value of existing homes, down from 80% previously.
The cooler mortgage market does not appear to pose any systemic risk for banks, however, as the exposure of Brazil's banking industry to mortgages (excluding state-owned Caixa) is low. Mortgages account for just 6% of total loans and 2% of interest income at Brazil's top four listed banks – Banco do Brasil, Itaú Unibanco Holding, Banco Bradesco and Banco Santander Brasil.
BCB hikes interest rate to six-year high to curb inflation
Brazil's housing boom was mainly propelled by a continuous decline in interest rates. Successful economic reforms under President Lula da Silva pushed Selic, Brazil's central bank benchmark rate, from nearly 30% in 1998, to 8.65% in August 2009.
When the financial crisis hit, the central bank cut its key interest rate to an all-time low of 7.25% in November 2012. However in 2013 the BCB changed monetary course, raising the benchmark interest rate nine times from 7.25% in March 2013 to 11% in April 2014. In October 2014 the interest rate was again raised to 11.25%. By June 2015 it had reached 13.75%. The BCB is expected to raise interest rates yet further to curb inflation and stem declines in the country's currency.
"This [hiking rates] is a dangerous move. Yes, inflation is a big problem and they've been working very hard to clamp down price pressures, but by raising interest rates, they seriously risk tossing the economy into deeper recession," according to Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management. The sentiment is echoed by Neil Shearing of Capital Economics saying, "Higher interest rates are the last thing the struggling economy needs."
Rental yields likely to increase in the run-up to the Olympics
Buying property is increasingly unaffordable, leading many Brazilians to rent rather than own.
"In the major cities young professionals are struggling to afford the kind of prices now being asked for properties in good areas and even with the mortgage rates falling into single figures, affordability is unlikely to improve," according to Colordarcy. The upcoming 2016 Olympic Games is also likely to increase demand for rental properties as the country attracts more visitors.
According to Colordarcy, rental yields are actually likely to go up. Smaller one and two bedroom apartments in new developments are the most attractive investments in terms of yields.
"A 50 square meter apartment will generate yields of 9.6% whereas larger units would be 5.4% to 7.2%. Apartments in the suburbs of Sao Paulo offer yields of between 4% and 8% and in more central areas close to transport links yields can be up to 11%, making it one of the world's most attractive destinations for buy to let investors," according to Colordarcy.
The rise of the middle class
Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff has pushed Brazil further on the road charted by Lula da Silva, lifting many Brazillians from poverty unto the middle class. The successful poverty reduction program has led to real average incomes rising by 9% from 2002 to 2012, according to the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE).
"What I want my legacy to be is this country to be increasing middle class, to be highly competitive and highly educated," Rousseff told Forbes.
In 2011, 54% of Brazilians were middle class, up from 34% in 2004, according to Cetelem BGN and Ipsos Research Institute –a total of 103 million middle class Brazilians, who account for 46% of the country's purchasing power. Rousseff predicts that around 60% of Brazilians will be middle class by 2018.
The expansion of Brazilian middle class has made it real estate's target market, replacing wealthy international buyers who used to dominate the market in major cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Developers like Cyrela (with a 10% market share in São Paulo and 25% share in Rio de Janeiro) have shifted from luxury projects, to the "economic" and "middle" segments, i.e., to middle-class buyers.
Out of the 27,690 units launched by Cyrela in 2011, 7,155 units (26%) were for the super-economic segment, 9,690 units (35%) for the economic segment, and 1,500 units (5%) for the middle segment.
In contrast 2,227 units (8%) were for the mid-high segment and 7,388 units (26%) for the high-end segment. In 2006, mid-high (48%) and luxury (5%) segments made up more than half of Cyrela's launches.
Housing deficit persists but shrinking
Brazil's housing deficit - the official term for those unhoused or very poorly housed - fell from 5.59 million housing units in 2007, to 5.24 million housing units in 2012, a reduction of 6.3%. The percentage decrease may actually be larger. The decline in housing shortage has been particularly noticeable in rural areas. However, the government has been less successful at reaching the very poorest families.
Of course, Brazilians, especially the poor, find housing unaffordable partly because of the high property prices. In São Paulo, around 62% of families find it expensive to own a house, based on a study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).
Source: Hofinet
My Home, My Life
The housing program Minha Casa Minha Vida (My House, My Life), launched in March 2009, was one of the popular federal government programs launched during former President Lula da Silva's 8-year term.
With an initially allocated budget of BRL 36 billion (USD 11.4 billion), the program aimed to build 1 million houses during 2009 and 2010 for low income families, specifically those earning up to three times the national minimum salary. By end of 2010, 1,005,028 units had been contracted, according to CEF.
The second stage of the program was officially launched in June 2011. It has a government budget allocation of BRL 72 billion (USD 22.8 billion), and targets the construction of an additional 2 million houses by end-2014. By August 2012, one million houses had been built. President Rousseff announced that by 2014, her administration would have contracted 2.4 million houses, added to the one million houses contracted under the previous administration.
Of the total three million houses:
- 1.6 million homes are intended for families earning 0 -3 times the monthly minimum wage (earning between BRL 0 and BRL 1,635 a month)
- 1 million homes for families with salaries 3-6 times the monthly minimum wage (monthly income ranging from BRL 1,635 to BRL 3,270)
- 400,000 homes are allocated for families earning 6-10 times the monthly minimum wage (monthly wages between BRL 3,270 and BRL 5,450).
Under the program, subsidized mortgage loans were extended to middle and lower income homebuyers through the state-owned bank, Caixa Economica Federal (CEF).
Old Entries
- Brazil faces a 'perfect storm', now that its great housing boom is over - October 15, 2016
- Brazil is at the end of a cycle - October 01, 2015
Brazil - More data and information
- How expensive are houses in Brazil, compared to the rest of Latin America?
- Property prices in Brazil. Graph of house price trends in Brazil
- How much rent can be earned from Brazilian property, compared to the rest of Latin America?
- How much tax must foreign owners pay when they rent out their Brazilian property?
- Where to buy property in Brazil
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Light in L'Enfant / Festivity in Foggy Bottom
Thank you again to all of those who attended and shared my post on New Liturgical Movement about Advent Stations with the Dominicans at St. Dominic's Church in the L'Enfant Plaza neighborhood of DC. This is the second year that the friars have held what they hope will become an annual event here in the Nation's Capital, and appropriately enough the size of the congregation doubled from last year. (I suppose it is too much to expect that the attendance will therefore triple next year, but who knows?)
You can see some mediocre photographs I took over on my Instagram account, but you can see some superb ones by my friend Fr. Lawrence Lew, O.P., over on the New Liturgical Movement website.
It was a beautiful evening of light, music, scripture, prayer, and preaching, and one which I highly recommend that you put on your advanced planning calendar for next year.
For those of you who will be in the Washington, D.C. area over Christmas, and are considering where (or if) to attend services, I want to put in a plug for my parish of St. Stephen Martyr in Foggy Bottom.
As I regularly observe on social media, our choir and organist/music director are stupendous, which is no exaggeration. Friends from social media who are not Catholic OR Christian have joined us for Mass at St. Stephen's, and come away astounded by how beautiful the music is. On Christmas Eve we will be having carols at 6:00 pm, followed by Mass at 6:30 pm, and you are most welcome to attend and celebrate with us. Given the very warm weather we will be having – the forecast high for DC on Christmas Eve is 76 F – and the relatively early hour, you can join us and still have time to go to dinner, put the kids to bed for Santa, or start watching that "Elf" or "Christmas Story" marathon. As an aside, I will be giving one of the Scripture readings from the Acts of the Apostles, so if you do attend I hope you will take a moment to say hello.