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Article information: To cite this document: David Mercer, (1995),"Simpler scenarios", Management Decision, Vol. 33 Iss: 4 pp. 32 - 40 Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00251749510084662 Downloaded on: 27-11-2012 References: This document contains references to 5 other documents Citations: This document has been cited by 18 other documents To copy this document: [email protected] This document has been downloaded 802 times since 2005. *
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Simpler scenarios David Mercer Scenario forecasting as a technique for long-range planning must be kept simple to be effective
Development of a practical approach to scenario forecasting to guide strategy was initiated by Wack[1] in 1971 at the Royal Dutch Shell group of companies – and it was given impetus by uncertainty resulting from the oil shock two years later. Unfortunately, in common with most forms of long-range forecasting, the use of scenarios has now declined markedly. Indeed, it has become the province of only a handful of private-sector organizations; and Shell remains almost alone among them in keeping the technique at the forefront of its long-range planning. It is possible that some part of this reduction in use arose from the shortening of planning horizons which accompanied the deepening recession in the early 1990s.
On the other hand, the evidence suggests that the technique's fall from favour started rather earlier than this, and was at least as much the result of the complexity of the process itself, which could no longer be supported when the large corporate planning departments were disbanded, and many of their responsibilities passed to line management, earlier in the 1980s. Whatever the reason, the resulting lack of scenario forecasting skills in most organizations may now prove to be an embarrassment as the recession eases over the next few years and managements once more start to consider their long-term futures. The position may prove doubly embarrassing where there are so many discontinuities now lying in wait for the unwary.
A number of revolutionary forces are converging on the millennium. Post-modernism, post-materialism, postFordism and now post-politics, all with rather different implications for an organization, are set to peak at the beginning of the next century. Most important of all, the IT revolution – after stalling for a decade while there was a switch of hardware to decentralized processing – has now been given a dramatic new impetus by the massive investments in super-highway infrastructure which build on this decentralization. The resulting uncertainties Management Decision, Vol. 33 No. 4, 1995, pp. 32-40 © MCB University Press Limited, 0025-1747
facing organizations, as these separate waves of progress interact unpredictably with one another to create major new discontinuities in the organizational environment, are larger in number and potentially greater in impact than the equivalents after the oil price shock of the 1970s. The latter created the original demand for scenarios. It is likely that the new shock waves will, in like manner, resuscitate the demand for this form of forecasting.
On the other hand, much of the development work reported to date, including that undertaken by Shell, has focused on improving the effectiveness of the techniques involved. Mindful of the complexity which seemed to contribute to the reduction in use, and of the resultant scarcity of skills among the line managers who have become the new strategic planners, we have concentrated our own efforts on making the overall scenario planning process easier to use. Our developments, therefore, make the process more accessible to a wider range of organizations.
More important, perhaps, they now make the technique suitable for use by those line managers – across the organization – who might want to use it as part of their planning processes, without the need for extended involvement of outside experts, or corporate staff specialists The simpler processes described in this article still retain the ability to handle uncertainty. In our experience, however, their greatest virtue – especially in the wider context that the simplified forms allow – is that their use naturally and painlessly widens managers viewpoints
The author is grateful to the many Open Business School (OBS) academics and the literally hundreds of OBS students who have contributed to this work, as well as the several hundred organizations who have contributed to the related "Millenium Project". In addition, it should be obvious, from the many comments in this article, that his overall inspiration and many of the detailed ideas were drawn from the experience of the corporate planning group at Shell. The author thanks them, and in particular Graham Galer, for their invaluable help, and hopes that as a result of this article others will be able to emulate their success in future.
and helps to extend their planning horizons beyond the short term. In this way it can alert them to potential longterm threats, while ensuring that they do not overlook major long-term opportunities. To conclude this introduction, I should explain that the practical guidelines described are directly based on our work[2] in the field over the past three years with more than 1,000 managers and professionals, who between them have written more than 4,000 full length scenarios.
business. Beyond this, they are also recommended to develop an informed viewpoint, which will improve their chances of recognizing early signs of change, no matter from which direction they are coming. In practice, we have found that almost all participants use general reading as the main source of their analysis, combined with the more specific information they receive from their industry and specialist press they read as a normal part of their work. Indeed, it has to be noted that the type of information which is required for environmental scenarios is most probably that which the participants have already assimilated from their general and specialist reading.
We have found that those involved in the production of our own scenarios, for instance, need to bring to the process no more than their existing knowledge.
Scenarios can be simple and effective The most important message to emerge from this work, fortunately, is that scenarios can be simple. In our experience, the simpler they are – and the simpler the process used to derive them – the more effective they may be; not least because those using them are able to understand how they work.
Even Shell, which is reportedly the world's leading commercial user of scenario forecasting, now uses relatively simple techniques to create its scenarios; ones that are far removed from the academic sophistications of earlier times. In fact, even the basic concepts of the process are relatively simple. In terms of the overall approach to forecasting, they can be divided into three main groups of activities which are, generally speaking, common to all long range forecasting processes: (1) environmental analysis; (2) scenario forecasting; (3) corporate strategy.
Of these only the central part represents the specific techniques which differentiate the scenario forecasting process from the others in long-range planning; and it is this, not surprisingly, which will take up most of the rest of the article.
One organization brought 300 managers into the process In addition, there seems to be no special expertise involved in detecting these shifts. One approach recommended in the literature is to use a range of employees (in the most extreme – and reportedly most successful – version, using the whole spectrum of employees from senior managers right the way down to janitors) to input their observations – thus capturing a very wide range of viewpoints (which seems to be an especially important aspect of this part of the process).
Indeed, perhaps the best advice is to analyse the external environment as a team. If nothing else, this extends the coverage of the scanning; but it also seems to go much further to amplify the early signs of change and develop resonances as the team members interact with one another, comparing notes as the process develops.
On the basis of our work, we would generally recommend the use of teams of between six and eight participants, though the number may be expanded to ten participants where they are used to regularly working together (and this is the level recommended by Shell). On the other hand, we ourselves typically involve the whole Open Business School (OBS) management group of around 30, by splitting it into three separate teams which work in parallel; one of the organizations we advise has brought more than 300 managers into the process by running multiple teams on a similar basis.
Environmental analysis As with all forecasting, scenarios can only be as good as the information on which they are based. For this reason the analysis must be of as high a quality as possible. Even so – mindful of the limited resources available within most organizations – it will probably not justify an excessive level of sophistication and, fortunately, our experience again indicates that such sophistication is rarely demanded. Thus, the practical advice we give to managers is quite simply to cultivate a deep curiosity about the external environment and to maintain maximum exposure to the widest range of media, where changes often appear in subject areas far from day-to-day
The subsequent analysis needs more rigour. The key here is that the process is one of education for the team – by total immersion in the facts which define the environment they are studying. When the scenario development finally gets under way it is not the material available on paper that is productive, it is what is in the team's heads. Indeed, the first stage of scenario forecasting – the choice of the assumptions – is embedded in this supposedly earlier process of environmental analysis. It is inevitable that, as the team works together on the analysis, it will start to develop ideas as to what the assumptions might be.
The group will probably have spent a considerable time over the weeks, and perhaps months, that the environmental analysis should take arguing about what these mean. We have found, as has Shell, that the use of computer conferences is one particularly productive way of handling this type of input, and have used it to extend the debate to a network of contributors throughout the organization and beyond. On the other hand, the key elements of the process can be encapsulated in a relatively few hours.
Our own scenario production process, within the OBS planning cycle, typically lasts no more than two days, during which time the 30-person team is dedicated to this. commitment to search for those forces which will act to change the future. Perhaps the most difficult aspect is freeing the participants from the preconceptions they take into the process with them. In particular, in our experience, most participants will want to look no further than the medium term, five to ten years ahead.
The most difficult aspect is freeing the participants from preconceptions This may not seem a problem, when a decade is a very long time in many areas of commercial activity, but we have found that a time horizon of anything less than ten years frequently results in participants extrapolating from present trends, rather than considering the alternatives which might face them. When, however, they are asked to consider timescales in excess of ten years they almost all seem to accept the logic of the scenario planning process, and no longer fall back on that of extrapolation. There is a similar problem with expanding participants' horizons to include the whole external environment.
Only a fifth of the scenarios produced by our managers could be truly considered as being externally oriented. The largest category took in some of the external environment but mixed it with internal factors, but a surprisingly high proportion wrote what amounted to corporate scenarios which just described the future of the organization itself, largely on the basis of internal factors.
The good news is that if you can persuade them to address the ten-year horizon, perhaps an easier task, this also tends to make them look further out in terms of the external environment. In addition, the contrasting perspectives which should be held by the various members of a wellchosen team – especially one which contains at least one participant who is willing to challenge the status quo – seems most likely to ensure that the resulting scenarios incorporate the widest range of viewpoints and identify the largest number of significant discontinuities.
Scenario planning As has already been stated, the part of the overall process which is radically different from most other forms of long-range planning is the central section, the actual production of the scenarios. Even this, however, at its most basic level, is relatively simple – requiring just six steps: (1) decide the drivers for change; (2) bring drivers together into a viable framework; (3) produce initial (seven to nine) mini-scenarios; (4) reduce to two or three scenarios; (5) write the scenarios; (6) identify issues arising.
Step 1: decide the drivers for change The first stage is to examine the results of the environmental analysis to determine which are the most important factors that will decide the nature of the future environment within which the organization operates. These factors are sometimes called "variables" (because they will vary over the time being investigated). We tend to prefer the term "drivers" (for change), since this terminology is not laden with quasi-scientific connotations and reinforces the participant's
Brainstorming The subsequent brainstorming to discover the less obvious factors, which is an integral part of practical scenario planning, may be conducted according to any of a wide range of protocols. Our own experience has ranged
from the traditional use of flip-charts to the more adventurous – but equally successful – use of computer conferences. On the other hand, the simple technique we have come to recommend for general usage is based on the now almost universal availability of Post-it notes. It is a very simple technique which is especially useful at this brainstorming stage, but we now also use it more generally for handling all scenario planning debates, and it may be used to support any form of planning process.
In line with our objectives of simplicity and ease-of-use, however, it requires only a conference room with a bare wall and copious supplies of 3M Post-it notes! Working as a team, certainly during the brainstorming process, is an almost essential aspect of successful scenario forecasting. It is very difficult for individual forecasters to develop the wide range of viewpoints and ideas which result in the identification of even significant discontinuities in the future.
normal brainstorming and typically lasts the same length of time – say, an hour or so only. It is important that all the participants feel they "own" the wall and are encouraged to move the notes around themselves. The result is a very powerful form of creative decision making for groups, which is applicable to a wide range of situations but is especially powerful in this context. It also offers a very good introduction for those who are coming to the scenario process for the first time. Since the workings are largely self-evident, participants very quickly come to understand exactly what is involved.
Although workable scenarios can be produced by teams new to the process, it initially helps if at least one member – often an outside expert – has had previous experience and, in particular, has had some experience of the insights which may emerge from the process. In general, it also helps if at least one member, perhaps again an outsider, is willing, and indeed motivated, to challenge the basic assumptions held by the organization. The most important insights typically emerge from such challenges.
Attention must concentrate on a limited number of issues Ideally, the people taking part in such face-to-face debates should meet in a conference room environment, isolated from outside interruptions. At the start of the meeting itself any topics which have already been identified during the environmental analysis stage are written, preferably with a thick magic marker so they can be read from a distance, on separate Post-it notes. These Post-it notes are then, at least in theory, randomly placed on the wall. In practice, we have found that even at this early stage the participants will want to cluster them in groups which seem to make sense.
The only requirement – which is why Post-it notes are ideal for this approach – is that there is no bar to taking them off again and moving them to a new cluster. As in any form of brainstorming, the initial ideas almost invariably stimulate others, and hence justify the use of a team approach. Indeed, everyone should be encouraged to add their own Post-it notes to those on the wall. It should be noted, however, that it differs from the "rigorous" form described in "creative thinking" texts, in that it is much slower paced and the ideas are discussed immediately. Ideas may be removed, as not being relevant, as well as being added.
Even so, it follows many of the same rules as Important and uncertain This step, however, is also one of selection, since only the most important factors will justify a place in the scenarios.
The 80:20 rule here means that, at the end of the process, management's attention must be concentrated on a limited number of the most important issues. In addition, as scenarios are a technique for presenting alternative futures, the factors to be developed must be genuinely variable.
They should be subject to significant alternative outcomes. Factors whose outcome is predictable, but important, must be spelled out in the introduction to the scenarios, since they too cannot be ignored. At this point it is also worth pointing out that a great virtue of scenarios is that they can accommodate the input from any other form of forecasting. They may use figures, diagrams or words in any combination.
Step 2: bring drivers together into a viable framework The next step is to link these drivers together to provide a meaningful framework. This is probably the most (conceptually) difficult step. It is where managers' intuition – their ability to make sense of complex patterns of soft data which more rigorous analysis would be unable to handle – plays an important role.
At this stage, therefore, the participants try to arrange the drivers which have emerged from the first stage into groups which seem to make sense to them. Initially there may be many such small groups. The intention, therefore, should be to merge these gradually, often having to recreate them from new combinations of drivers to make these bigger groups work. The aim of this stage is eventually to make six to eight larger groupings: "miniscenarios". This is where the Post-it notes are almost essential – they will continue to stick no matter how many times they are moved around (and they may be moved dozens of times over the length – perhaps several hours or more – of each meeting).
While this process is taking place the participants will probably want to add new topics – so more Post-it notes are added to the wall. In the opposite direction, the unimportant ones are removed, possibly to be grouped, again as an "audit trail", on another wall. In particular, though, the topics which are deemed to be certain are also removed from the main area of debate – in this case they must be grouped in clearly labelled area of the main wall, for later inclusion in the final reports.
As the clusters – the mini-scenarios – emerge, the associated Post-it notes may be stuck to one another rather than individually to the wall, which makes it easier to move whole clusters around. This is especially helpful during the final, demanding stage of reducing the scenarios to just two or three in number.
The great benefit of using Post-it notes is that there is no bar to changing your mind. If you want to rearrange the groups – or simply to go back (iterate) to an earlier stage – then you strip them off and put them in their new position. One extra technical device, a Polaroid camera, is a help here. Every so often a series of indexed pictures should be taken of the wall to record where you are. It is advisable to do so before you make any major changes so that you have a record which enables you to return to where you were when the new approach turns out to be a blind alley!
practice seems to come down to finding two or three "containers" into which all the topics can be sensibly fitted. This usually requires a considerable amount of debate but in the process it typically produces fundamental insights into what are the really important, perhaps life and death, issues affecting the organization. During this extended debate – and even before it is summarized in the final reports – the participants come to understand, by their own involvement in the debate, what the most important drivers for change may be, and (perhaps even more important) what their peers think they are.
Managers can only cope effectively with three scenarios There is no theoretical reason for reducing to just two or three scenarios, only a practical one. It has been found that the managers who will be asked to use the final scenarios can only cope effectively with a maximum of three versions! Shell started, more than two decades ago, by building half a dozen or more scenarios but found that the outcome was that their managers selected just one of these on which to concentrate. As a result their planners progressively reduced the number to two, which – based on similar experiences – is the number we now also recommend.
Step 3: produce initial (between seven and nine) mini-scenarios The outcome of the previous step is usually between seven and nine logical groupings of drivers. In our experience this is usually remarkably easy to achieve.
Complementary scenarios As used by Shell and ourselves, these two scenarios should be complementary, the reason being that this again helps avoid managers choosing just one, preferred, scenario, and lapsing once more into single-track forecasting, negating the benefits of using alternative scenarios to allow for alternative, uncertain futures. This is, however, a potentially difficult concept to grasp, where managers are used to looking for opposites; a good and a bad scenario, say, or an optimistic one versus a pessimistic one.
In the Shell approach, the two scenarios are required to be equally likely, and between them to cover all the drivers. Ideally they should not be obvious opposites, which might once again bias their acceptance by users, so the choice of neutral titles is important. For example, Shell's two scenarios at the beginning of the 1990s were titled "sustainable world" and "global mercantilism"[3].
Step 4: reduce to two or three scenarios The main action at the next stage is to reduce the seven mini-scenarios/groupings detected at the previous stage to just two or three larger scenarios. The challenge in
In practice, we have found that this requirement, to our surprise, poses few problems for the great majority of participants. Less than a sixth of those in our surveys fell into the expected trap of "good versus bad". Testing Having grouped the factors into these two scenarios, the next step is to test them, again, for viability. Do they make sense to the participants? If the scenarios do not intuitively hang together, why not? The usual problem is that one or more of the assumptions turns out to be unrealistic in terms of how the participants see their world. If this is the case then you need to return to the first step – the whole scenario planning process is, above all, an iterative one.
listed across the top and the key factors down the side so that what each of these groups feels about each scenario, and what the reaction of each to the outcomes is likely to be, can be recorded. It also helps if a number of managers repeat the process and enter into a debate about their views, so that consensus opinion may be achieved. This is, once more, a useful test of the consistency of the scenarios – if there are any inconsistencies then it is back to iteration! More important, although, it gives a valuable insight into not just what the events in the future might be, but how the key players may respond.
Governments often use this technique by itself, without scenarios, to see how the various actors may react to political developments. In this case it can become an expensive process since those role playing the key actors, often at great length, have to be experts. Combining it with scenarios, a much simpler approach, can be even more powerful.
Step 5: write the scenarios The scenarios are then written up in the most suitable form. The flexibility of this step often confuses participants, for they are used to forecasting processes which have a fixed format. The rule, though, is that you should produce the scenarios in the form most suitable for use by the managers who are going to base their strategy on them. This is essentially a marketing decision, since – as we will see later – it will be very necessary to "sell" the final results to the users.
On the other hand, where your persuasive powers must be at their peak, a major consideration may be the form which you, the author, find most comfortable to use. Most scenarios will, perhaps, be written in word form, almost as a series of alternative essays about the future, especially where they will almost inevitably be qualitative. Nearly half of those in our surveys chose to use the normal business report format – hardly surprising as they, and their audience, would probably use this in their day-to-day communications.
Use of scenarios It is important to note that these final scenarios may be used in a number of ways: Containers for the drivers/event strings Most basically, they are a logical device, an artificial framework, for presenting the individual drivers (or coherent groups of these) so that these are made easily available for managers' use – as useful ideas about future developments in their own right – without reference to the rest of the scenario.
It should be stressed that no important factors should be dropped, or even given lower priority, as a result of producing the scenarios. In this context, which scenario contains which topic (driver), or issue about the future, is irrelevant. Our own, internal (OBS), scenarios typically contain, in this way, a dozen or more individual strands, which are subsequently tracked, and dealt with, separately.
Tests for consistency At every stage it is necessary to iterate, to check that the contents are viable and make any necessary changes to ensure that they are; the main test is to see if the scenarios seem to be internally consistent – if they are not then the writer must again loop back to earlier stages to correct the problem. Though it has been mentioned previously, it is important to stress once again that scenario building is ideally an iterative process. It usually does not just happen in one meeting – though even one attempt is better than none – but should take place over a number of meetings as the participants gradually refine their ideas.
Step 6: identify issues arising The final stage of the process is to examine these scenarios to determine what are the most critical outcomes; the "branching points" relating to the issues which will have the greatest impact (potentially generating crises) on the future of the organization. Role playing An optional, though potentially time-consuming, extra test may be to act through (role play) what each of the two scenarios means to the key actors involved (parts of your own organization, competitors, government, for example). It helps to produce a table with the scenarios
Positive perspectives Perhaps the main benefit deriving from scenarios, however, comes from the alternative "flavours" of the future the different perspectives offer. It is a common experience, when the scenarios finally emerge, for the participants to be startled by the insight they offer as to what the general shape of the future might be. At this stage it is no longer a theoretical exercise but becomes a genuine framework (or rather set of alternative frameworks) for dealing with that future.
This has probably represented the main benefit the OBS has gained from its own use of scenarios. Those in our most recent set, for example, were entitled "mass electronic education" and "the club". The former encapsulates the events resulting from the expansion, as "edutainment", of ongoing education to wider audiences through the medium of the emerging superhighway, while the latter focuses on a more élitist approach, where individual education is also a vehicle for social contact between students.
theory, managers still expect the final forecast to be correct! Such worries should be discounted. The greater the number of genuine, significant discontinuities which can be detected – by whatever means – the more robust the subsequent strategies can be made.
Strong external forces may produce unanimity of the scenarios' factors Even so, our own experience of running two or three such teams in parallel indicates that, if there are strong forces at work in the external environment, there may be a surprising degree of unanimity on the major features of scenarios. In our most recent work, all three of our teams described one of the two scenarios in much the same terms, and two teams did so for the second. Running teams in parallel in this way is very unusual, even as only the first stage of the overall process, since it can demand large amounts of resource.
Apart from our own usage, we have experience of only one user which has done this in practice – a government which used scenarios as part of its three year planning exercise. It found that it was an excellent way, at least for itself, of providing widespread expert input to the final scenarios (it used it, in this way, to bring together the ideas of more than 300 members of the administration). At the same time, however, it provided an indication of the spread of possible scenarios by posing the question "Why are they so different?" As an added benefit, of course, it helped get round the problem of incorporating the widest possible environmental analysis.
Hierarchies of scenarios This government went further, in that it used the earlier levels of scenario to provide specific scenarios for the various departments and these were then quite naturally located in a hierarchy which finally linked them to the overall national scenario. It is possible to reverse this process, and to take the overall scenario as the first step and then break this down to different scenarios at a lower level, which are more directly related to departmental needs, but still clearly link to the overall position. Shell, for example, has individual country scenarios which link to its worldwide ones.
Non-standard scenarios The word scenario has now entered into general usage as a general term which can be applied to many different approaches. Indeed, at the height of the technique's popularity, Diffenbach[4] found that almost as many of the large organizations he surveyed (55 per cent) used single scenarios as used alternate scenarios (68 per cent). Even within the general area of complementary or alternate scenarios, on which this article focuses, there are a number of variants, some of which can add to the usefulness of the process in certain situations.
Multiple scenario sets It is paradoxical, where one main aim of using alternate scenarios is to widen the viewpoints of the participants, that most of the descriptions of the theory behind them seem to imply that, when everything has run its course, there will be just one possible set of two or three scenarios, which should eventually emerge as the true forecast. If, however, you run a number of teams in parallel, studying the same areas of the environment and the same timeframe from the same perspective, you may quickly become aware that there is no one such obvious, correct set.
There can be significant differences between the various sets, especially if the profiles of the various teams are different, so much so that sometimes they appear not to be talking about the same future. This can, in the first instance, be worrying, since, despite the message of variety of alternatives which is inherent in scenario
Strategic scenarios Indeed, Shell's use of scenarios is now so sophisticated that they may even write their consequent strategies in a similar form. Thus, having developed its two environmental scenarios, it undertakes much the same corporate planning process as other large multinationals. The difference is that, having decided on the strategies, these may then be written – for use by managers throughout the corporation – in the form of strategic scenarios: frameworks which contain the alternative strategies for dealing with possible events, in the same way as the original scenarios contained the alternative events themselves.
When a manager needs to consult them as a context for a decision, he or she has a range of strategies already available to match to the situation as it has actually developed. This takes alternate scenarios to the logical conclusion of alternate strategies – but that requires a very confident (and competent) management! Shell has even gone as far as adopting an "optimistic"global scenario, and promoting it, in order to send a positive message to the whole organization. It does, however, emphasize that this needs handling with great care!
of the major oil multinationals. Two decades later it has reportedly become the strongest of them – at least in terms of its market capitalization. These facts are not necessarily connected, but Shell's senior management is convinced that, at the very least, its dedication to scenario planning has made a significant contribution to this dramatic improvement in performance. Unfortunately, the reality is rather different in most other organizations. As we saw earlier, possibly as a result of an unwarranted reputation for being impossibly sophisticated, very few organizations these days make any use of scenarios as part of the overall corporate strategy process.
The whole process of scenario forecasting should be imbued Hopefully, this article will have shown that scenarios can be both easy to use and very productive. They may, however, still demand some considerable investment of time, often of scarce senior management time, so if they are to be justified they must earn their keep. In essence this means that they must be genuinely useful, and used, as the (external) basis for corporate strategy.
It is recognized by all those we have met who are actively involved in the scenario planning process that this is by far the most difficult part of the whole process. It is no accident that the large corporate planning department at Shell says that it spends at least half its time promoting the scenarios. It typically achieves this by running workshops for the local companies, and for other members of management, as the process develops, and making elaborate presentations to them at the end of it. It took them a number of years to attain the degree of understanding and trust which the users now have in the system.
It is probably no accident that the central planning team sees itself only as a facilitator, and insists that all planning is actually done by line managers. Indeed, the whole process of scenario forecasting should be imbued, from the very start, with the objective of positively influencing the strategy of the organization. This means that, on the one hand, the scenarios must be carefully balanced between stretching the imagination of the management and being believable. On the other, it requires a significant investment in the education of the managers, making practical use of them and especially of
Corporate strategy Scenarios are, of course, only a means to an end. They identify the long-term forces and consequent events which the organization's conventional long-range planning must address. This next step, therefore, starts by matching the organization's limited internal resources to the essentially unlimited external challenges which may face it. The special contribution of scenario planning, in this context, is to allow, and indeed encourage, the development of a robust set of strategies.
These will not necessarily result in an optimal outcome for a specific situation, which is the aim of most other forms of corporate planning, but should offer the possibility of achieving the best overall outcome. In particular, they should best protect, as far as possible, against all the major threats potentially facing the organization, and then exploit the most important opportunities open to it.
The use of scenarios, therefore, should ensure that as many as possible of the long-term threats and opportunities facing the organization are identified and addressed. Shell[1,3,5] has demonstrated a number of times how such an awareness of the alternatives facing it has enabled it not just to handle changed market conditions, but to capitalize on them. At the beginning of the 1970s, when it first adopted its scenario-planning approach, it was probably the weakest
senior management. The marketing of the scenarios needs to be every bit as sophisticated as the writing of them. In addition, the introduction of the process should be seen as a long-term project. It can take a number of years before senior managers really trust scenarios sufficiently to put their faith in the strategies which are developed from them. The cultural problems facing those who wish their organizations to take scenarios seriously should not, therefore, be underestimated. Failure, in this way, to have an immediate impact on published strategy should not, however, discourage those considering use of the technique.
Our own experience, and that of Shell, was that, while the first scenarios produced are relatively neglected in the subsequent planning, participants still obtain major benefits from the process – even in the short term. On the other hand, the main practical benefit is much less direct than that usually claimed, and indeed is often not even obvious to the participants themselves. It is the enduring change in viewpoint of all those participating, in extending their perspectives to include the wider environment and the longer term.
This has been our own experience, not least in terms of the surprising elements which have emerged during the process, to be accepted as key determinants of subsequent strategy. In view of the short-termism exhibited by so many managers, this shift in attitude must – by itself – be invaluable. Above all, therefore, scenario planning should be seen as a process of learning.
References 1. Wack, P., "Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead", Harvard Business Review, September-October 1985. 2. Mercer, D., "Simple scenarios", Long Range Planning (forthcoming). 3. Kahane, A., "Scenarios for energy: sustainable world vs. global mercantilism", Long Range Planning, Vol. 25 No. 4, 1992. 4. Diffenbach, J., "Corporate environmental analysis in large US corporations", Long Range Planning, Vol. 16 No. 3, 1983. 5. Wack, P., "Scenarios: shooting the rapids", Harvard Business Review, November-December 1985.
David Mercer is Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Strategy & Policy, the Open Business School, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.
Application questions (1) How do you currently plan your long-term strategy? How do you handle the uncertainty involved? (2) What major threats may face your organization over the longer-term? How can you recognize these? What may be the unseen threats? (3) Could you employ the simple techniques described here? How would they expand your horizons? What other benefits might they bring?


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CIOs Losing Control of Corporate Tech Spending
CIOs take note–businesses are spending more money than ever on technology, but less and less of that budget is going to traditional forms of IT, researcher Howard Rubin says. As a result of these shifts, companies are failing to leverage IT investments, which are falling in relation to the overall operating budget, he warns. That creates an opportunity for the CIO—or, perhaps a chief digitization officer—to make sure technology investments are creating value.

subset: commoncrawl


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Customer Owned Banking Association (COBA)
For COBA, it was all about the recently proposed deposits levy, which was not ruled out in the Budget.
"The deposit tax remains on the Budget books despite being rejected by the independent Financial System Inquiry (FSI) in its landmark report to the Government," COBA CEO Mark Degotardi said.
"While the Budget papers say the deposit tax is subject to the Government?s response to the FSI, the fact the Government has not yet ruled it out is ominous news for savers. This new tax is scheduled to take effect in 2016 so tonight?s Budget was the right time for the Government to rule it out. The Government?s response to the FSI could be months away. Savers are doing it hard enough because of record low interest rates. We call on the Government to axe the deposit tax."
Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA)
ASFA?s response was one of relief that there were no significant changes announced to the retirement savings regime. In addition, ASFA also praised the new reforms to childcare payments.
"At present, women retire on about half as much superannuation as men, and one-in-three have no super at all," said ASFA CEO Ms Pauline Vamos. "We know that this is largely due to the time they spend out of the workforce looking after kids at home, or the fact they end up working part-time due to the cost of childcare.
"This measure will help boost the superannuation savings of thousands of women, by making it easier for them to make the choice to return to paid work earlier and therefore contributing to super for a longer period of time."
ASFA also cautioned that the proposed pension changes highlight the importance of saving more super, to ensure people have adequate income to fund their post-work years.
"Faced with growing public debt, governments need to make tough decisions about how they will support the next generation of retirees to fund their post-work years," said Ms Vamos. "In most cases, people will need to put away more private savings, including in their super, to ensure they have enough money to accommodate their spending needs."
Master Builders Association
In short: builders will be winners!
"There are more than 300,000 small businesses (more than any other industry) in the building and construction industry who are winners from the Budget," Wilhelm Harnisch CEO of Master Builders Australia said.
"Master Builders called for a Budget to boost confidence and viability for business in the here and now and the Government has delivered. The $5.5 billion small business package will massively boost confidence, activity and jobs in the industry; in an industry as capital intensive as building and construction, the immediate write off of assets up to $20,000 will provide an immediate stimulus."
CPA Australia
According to CPA Australia the Federal Budget was big on small business incentives, but short on grand vision planning. CPA Australia?s chief executive Alex Malley said that "tonight?s budget lacks a real vision and commitment to the serious and overdue structural reforms that are desperately needed to secure Australia?s future.
"It?s evident that the Government has been spooked by the negative reception it got from its first budget. When the focus of a budget is on minimising how many people you offend, you know it is not about charting a course for the country?s future prosperity," Mr Malley said.
"Still nursing the wounds of its first bruising budget process, where a number of key reforms were rejected by the community and the Parliament, this time around it appears the preference is to be a small target and to please as many people as possible. Australian business and the community are desperate for a boost in confidence and certainty – unfortunately there are only a handful of initiatives announced tonight that assures me that we?re heading in the right direction."
Oxfam Australia
According to Oxfam Australia, the Australian Government?s gouging of the aid budget has created a lose-lose scenario that will cut vital programs helping some of the world?s poorest and also harm Australia?s interest.
"Our worst fears have been confirmed by the Government tonight – it has turned its back on millions of people who rely on Australian aid and gambled with Australia?s interests," said Oxfam Chief Executive Dr Helen Szoke.
"Aid not only saves lives and helps people rise out of poverty, it is an essential investment in the security and stability of our region and our economy. This lose-lose budget grab will ultimately help no one.
"We?ve also seen with the second earthquake in Nepal tonight how unpredictable natural disasters are and how important it is to help countries prepare for them."


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Resources on gender roles in the church are grouped into three categories: OVERVIEW OF PERSPECTIVES | WOMEN'S PERSPECTIVES IN MINISTRY | WRITINGS ON PERSPECTIVES | Click on Categories for content on gender roles.
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Echoes of Eden: Part 1
Echoes of Eden, an adult Bible study taught by Steve Kenney. To listen to Class 1 click on headphones icon or the down arrow icon to download. To access Class 2 - Class 9, click on the Echoes of Eden graphic.
Traditional, Complementarian, or Egalitarian?
A taxonomy of three views––traditional, complementarian, and egalitarian on the function/role men and women may serve in the public assembly of the church. Click on book icon to be taken to this online article.
The Council on Biblical Manhood and Womanhood
cbmw.org is the leading complementarian website. Click on book icon to go to the Council on Biblical Manhood and Womanhood website.
CBE International: Men and Women Co-Leading in Christ
cbeinternational.org is the leading egalitarian website. Click on book icon to go to the CBE International: Men and Women Co-Leading in Christ website.
Jesus, Justice, and Gender Roles: A Case for Gender Roles in Ministry
A memoir of a woman in ministry from a complementarian perspective. Click on book icon to view info on Amazon. ISBN: 978-0310519287


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The Maverick Moon is a children's storybook released in 1979 and published by Random House. It was written by Eleanor Ehrhardt (uncredited in the book itself) and illustrated by Walter Wright. It is one of three such children's Star Wars storybooks released that year, along with The Wookiee Storybook and The Mystery of the Rebellious Robot. It takes place at an unspecified time after Star Wars: Episode IV A New Hope.
Plot summaryEdit
Luke Skywalker is enrolled in the New Academy for Space Pilots on an unidentified planet. Luke and his classmates are called the Planetary Pioneers, and they are training to pilot transport ships to create new colonies on uninhabited planets. By colonizing planets with their own people, Luke's instructors hope to establish colonies loyal to peace, justice, and good will. Leia Organa comes to tour the new academy, and Luke is happy to show her around. He shows her a weapon called the Zukonium ray that has been modified so that it can be used as a power source. Luke's instructors hope to use it to power the colonies that will be created. Midway through the tour, an alarm sounds and Luke takes Leia to General Oleson's office. For unknown reasons, a maverick moon from a nearby system had been knocked out of orbit and was on a collision course with the planet. Luke proposes that he could destroy the moon with Zukonium rays, and he boards his X-wing, heading into orbit. Luke hears Ben Kenobi's words of encouragement, and he feels better about the upcoming challenge. Luke flies his spacecraft right next to the moon and fires Zukonium rays. The moon explodes, but Luke's craft is damaged, forcing an emergency landing. Luke saves the day, and Leia presents Luke with a medal of honor.
|Droid models
|Organizations and titles
|Sentient species
|Vehicles and vessels
|Weapons and technology
Droid models
Organizations and titles
Sentient species
Vehicles and vessels
Weapons and technology
The time period of this story is unspecified. No mention is made of the Rebellion or the Empire, and the creation of a brand new flight academy and of new colonies implies the war is over. But a subtle romantic element is implied between Leia and Luke in this story (as it was printed before Luke and Leia were revealed to be siblings), and the story makes it clear that Luke's only training in the Force came from Ben Kenobi—and even that, Luke "had almost forgotten." The Academy has a complement of X-wings, but the text makes it clear that these are not in active use and that their condition is questionable.
Cover galleryEdit
- "Wasaka Berries and Monster Ships"—Star Wars Insider 74
- 6 Vintage Star Wars Picture Books on StarWars.com (backup link)


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Last night, word came out of Los Angeles that Warrant lead singer Jani Lane had passed away in his Woodland Hills hotel. The former Warrant lead singer was just 47, and he leaves behind a treasure trove of great '80s glam anthems like "Cherry Pie" and "Heaven," which lit up rock radio and MTV in his band's heyday.
No cause of death was released. Lane leaves behind a wife, Kimberly, and four children, Taylar, Brittany, Madison and Ryan.
The singer was born John Kennedy Oswald, in tribute to the slain president, but soon his name was legally changed to avoid future aggravation.
Recently the singer was known more his battle with alcoholism and a stint on VH1's Celebrity Fit Club 2. He made time writing songs for other rockers, and just last summer he was fronting Great White while their singer Jack Russell was battling back from surgery.
Interestingly enough, in 1991 Lane married Bobbie Brown, the actress and model who was the buxom blonde from the popular, feminist-baiting "Cherry Pie" video. Their marriage ended two years later, and a daughter came from their short union.
Late Thursday night, many of his musical contemporaries like Nikki Sixx and Bret Michaels took to Twitter to offer tributes and words of condolence.
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For anyone who is a fan of raunchy glam-rock, Warrant is a part of a balanced musical diet. Be sure to crank up their 1990 album Cherry Pie today. If you have a bitchin' late-'80s Camaro lying around your garage, blare "Cherry Pie" with the top down.
Like most things in this short life we are given, it sounds way better that way.
Follow Rocks Off on Facebook and on Twitter at @HPRocksOff.


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'You're wasting my time, goodbye': Watch disgusted Joy Reid cut mic on ranting pastor excusing Trump's racism
Prominent Donald Trump surrogate and South Carolina evangelical televangelist Pastor Mark Burns had his microphone cut off MSNBC's "AM Joy" after continuing to talk over host Joy Reid while refusing to answer her questions.
Pastor Burns has been attempting to use the Bible to rationalize Trump's "sh*thole" comments, devolving a panel on CNN's "Out Front with Erin Burnett" on Friday into a shouting match.
Throughout Reid's interview, Pastor Burns repeatedly refused to answer her questions.
Round 2: Joy Reid spits fire in ongoing feud with booted pastor who suggested she 'just move to Haiti'
"One more question, I will give you one more chance to answer my question, then we'll be done here," Reid warned.
"You're wasting my time when you talk over me and don't answer my question," Reid noted.
"You're wasting my time," Pastor Burns replied.
"Then good-bye," Reid replied, ending the segment. "Let's bring in our panel."
This was not Reid's only contentious interview with Pastor Burns, in August she stumped him about what positive policy actions Trump has taken for the black community.


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Microeconometrics; Industrial Organization; Applied microeconomics
12. "A Nonparametric Non-classical Measurement Error Approach to Estimating Intergenerational Mobility Elasticities" (with Le Wang and Ruli Xiao), forthcoming, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, [PDF][Online Appendix]
11. "Dynamic Decisions under Subjective Expectations: A Structural Analysis" (with Yingyao Hu and Ruli Xiao), forthcoming, Journal of Econometrics. [PDF]
10. "Dynamic Efficiencies of the 1997 Boeing-McDonnell Douglas Merger" (with Wei Zhao), RAND Journal of Economics, 50 (Fall 2019), 666-694. [PDF] [Online appendix]
9. "Specification and Negotiation in Incomplete Contracts" (with Xun Tang), RAND Journal of Economics, 50 (Spring 2019), 57-92. [PDF] [Online Appendix]
8. "Estimating Private Provision of Public Goods with Heterogenous Participants: A Structural Analysis" (with Yingyao Hu and Pengfei Liu), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 152 (2018), 124-146. [PDF]
7. "Simple Menus of Cost-based Contracts with Monotone Optimal Effort" (with Daiqiang Zhang), Journal of Public Economic Theory, 20 (2018), 742-756. [PDF]
6. "Identification of First-Price Auctions with Non-Equilibrium Beliefs: A Measurement Error Approach", Journal of Econometrics, 200 (2017), 326-343. [PDF] [Online Appendix]
5. "Identifying Models of Committee Decisions with Heterogeneous Tastes and Ideological Bias" (with Xun Tang), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 35(2017), 452-469. [PDF]
4. "Identification and Estimation of Online Price Competition with an Unknown Number of Firms" (with Michael R. Baye, Yingyao Hu, John Morgan and Matt Shum), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(2017), 80-102. [PDF] [ Supplementary Material]
3. "Health Spending and Public Pension: Evidence from Panel Data" (with Kai Zhao and Rong Zhou), Applied Economics, 48(2016), 987-1004. [PDF]
2. "Well-posedness on Measurement Error Models for Self-Reported Data"(with Yingyao Hu), Journal of Econometrics, 168(2012), 259-269. [PDF]
1. "Estimating First-price Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders: A Misclassification Approach" (with Yingyao Hu and Matt Shum), Journal of Econometrics, 157(2010), 328-341. [PDF]
1. "Identification and Estimation of Multi-Period Simple Contracts" (with Shengjie Hong and Daiqiang Zhang). [PDF]
2. "Assurance Contract in Threshold Public Goods Provision with Incomplete Information" (with Zhi Li and Pengfei Liu), Best Poster Award at 2016 EAERE Annual Conference.
3. "Government Procurement, Market Power and Consumer Welfare: Empirical Evidence from the Infant Formula Market" (with David Davis, Rui Huang, Yizao Liu and Ruli Xiao).
4. "Agenda Manipulation and Policymaking under Media Bias" (with Weining Bao and Jian Ni). [PDF]
1. "How Likely to Be Caught: Identification and Estimation of Strategic Misreporting" (with Shengjie Hong and Ping Qian).
2. "Dynamic Models with Unobserved State Variables and Heterogeneity: Time Inconsistency in Drug Compliance" (with Yingyao Hu and Jian Ni).
1. "Counterintuitive Signs in Reduced Form Price Regressions" (with Michael A. William and Wei Zhao), American Bar Association Section of Antitrust Law, Economics Committee Newsletter, 16 (2016), 7-19. [PDF]


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Toyota RAV4 Hybrid Might be in the Making
Still so hot off the press that it's practically steaming, news of the 2013 Toyota RAV4's debut last week might have been more than it seemed.
That's because toil-hard Toyota is skipping any rest period and looking to the future for its popular small crossover. Some might be disappointed to learn that those plans won't include differently-sized models, but Toyota has something even more interesting up its sleeve — a hybrid drivetrain.
SEE ALSO: 2013 Toyota RAV4 Video, First Look: 2012 LA Auto Show
As a pioneer in that market, Toyota carries credibility in the hybrid world thanks to its Prius line. RAV4 deputy chief engineer Yoshikazu Saeki told AutoExpress that building a hybridized version "would not be difficult to do."
There aren't firm plans in place to build such a car just yet, but Saeki said the company is watching the market closely to decide if the move makes sense.
[Source: AutoExpress]


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Playing by the rules November 15, 2014Posted by Ezra Resnick in Game theory, Logic.
"Sure! But first we need to agree on the rules."
"Of course. I propose that we take turns proposing rules."
"Agreed, and since you just proposed the first rule, I guess I get to propose the next one."
"Wait a minute: I didn't propose a rule for the game itself — I merely proposed a rule for how we ought to go about proposing the game rules."
"Apologies; yours was indeed a meta-rule. In that case, let me propose a meta-rule of my own: Any disagreement about a proposed game rule will be decided by flipping a coin."
"I'm not sure I agree with that."
"Well, we haven't yet agreed on a method for resolving disagreements about meta-rules. Do you have a suggestion?"
"How about we take turns: one of us gets to decide the first disagreement, the other decides the next disagreement, and so on."
"OK, then: following your meta-meta-rule, I now get to decide our meta-rule disagreement about how to resolve disagreements about game rules."
"Hold on: Who said you get to decide the first meta-rule disagreement?"
"Well, I let you determine the meta-meta-rule on how to decide meta-rule disagreements, so now it's my turn."
"Nice try, but we never agreed on how to resolve disagreements about meta-meta-rules. You can't just make unilateral assumptions."
"Well, how come you got to propose the first meta-rule to begin with? If you get to propose the first meta-rule then I should get to decide the first meta-rule disagreement."
"Then I get to propose the first game rule."
"First, I propose the following meta-rule: If the first rule proposal is challenged and loses the coin flip, the challenger must propose the following as his next rule: 'The winner is whoever proposed playing the game.'"
"I don't agree to that!"
"Noted, but according to our meta-meta-rule, it's my turn to decide in case of disagreement on a meta-rule. And now for my first proposed game rule: The winner is whoever proposed playing the game."
"Even if I disagree I still lose. Nicely played."
"Thanks! That was fun."
"Indeed. But maybe we should play a different game next time?"
"Sure! As long as we can agree on the rules…"
No comments yet — be the first.


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names borrowed from classical masters, are realistic, probably real. It is possible that Milton's lines,
Were it not better done, as others use,
To sport with Amaryllis in the shade,
Or with the tangles of Neæra's hair?—
(Lycidas, 67)
glanced at Buchanan as well as at the classic elegiacs. Between 1544 and 1547 Buchanan returned to Paris and taught in the college of Cardinal le Moine, where the loss of his Bordeaux friends was compensated by the companionship of another circle of scholars, Turnebus, the great Grecian, Charles Stephen, the physician and printer of the family which gave its chief fame to the press of Paris, and Groscollius, and Gelida, less known scholars. Buchanan here became a victim of the gout, which never left him, and aggravated a temper naturally hasty. Govea, the principal at Bordeaux, was a Portuguese, and was summoned by John III of Portugal to preside over the newly founded college at Coimbra. He brought to his aid some of his learned friends, and among them Buchanan and his brother Patrick. John of Portugal, the friend of learning, though not of the Reformation, had already admitted the inquisition into his dominions, and on the death of Govea in 1548 Buchanan was accused of the use of flesh in Lent, of writing against the Franciscans, and of the remark that Augustine would have favoured those whom the Roman church condemned. Two secret witnesses reported that he thought ill of Roman doctrine, and he was immured in a monastery for some months, in the hope that seclusion and the monks might reclaim him. He occupied himself instead with translating the Psalms into Latin. On his release he was invited to remain in Portugal, but sailed for England in 1552. There he remained only a short time, and returned to Paris in the following year. At the solicitation of his friends he composed a poem on the raising of the siege of Metz, though with some reluctance, as Melinde de St. Gelais, a poet of the school of Marot, had already written on the subject. A graceful elegy on his return to France, 'Adventus in Galliam,' celebrates its praises in contrast with Portugal. After teaching a short time in the college of Boncourt he was engaged by Maréchal de Brissac, governor of the French territory on the Italian coast, as tutor for his son, Timoléon de Cossé, an office he held for five years, residing partly in Italy and partly in France. He was fortunate in his pupil, who, short as his life was, acquired credit in letters as well as a place among Brantome's great captains of France. Brissac's confidence in Buchanan was so great that he was sometimes admitted to the council of war. During this period several of his works were first published; his 'Alcestis' and a specimen of his version of the Psalms, which Henry Stephen brought out without his consent, along with four other versions by scholars of different countries, among whom he gave Buchanan the palm, and his own Greek version. At this time he wrote new poems on the 'Taking of Calais' and the 'Epithalamium of the Dauphin and Mary Stuart.' He also studied the Bible that he might form an opinion on religious controversies. The date of his return to Scotland is not certain, but he was there in 1562, and in April Randolph writes to Cecil: 'The queen readeth daily after her dinner, instructed by a learned man, Mr. George Buchanan, somewhat of Lyvie.' He now openly embraced the doctrines of the reformed church, and at once took part in its government. He was a member of the general assembly at Edinburgh on 25 Dec. 1563, and of a commission for revising the 'Book of Discipline.' He sat in the assemblies of 1564–7, and served on their judicial committee. In that of June 1567 he was moderator, one of the few laymen who have held that office. The year before he had been appointed by Moray principal of the college of St. Leonard's, and in that, as well as the following year, his name occurs among the electors, assessors, and deputies of the rector. In the register he receives the epithet already given him by foreign scholars, 'Hujus sæculi poetarum facile princeps.' He also appears as auditor of the accounts of the quæstor for the year 1566–7, and as assessor of the dean of the faculty of arts in 1567–9. In the parliament of 1563 Buchanan was appointed one of the commissioners to inquire into the foundations of St. Andrews and other universities. No report of this committee is extant, but a sketch for it, of which a copy exists in the Advocates' Library, Edinburgh, is credited to Buchanan. It differs from the scheme in the 'Book of Discipline,' but, like it, aimed at an organisation of the separate colleges of St. Salvator, St. Leonard, and St. Mary, which overlapped each other. According to his plan there was to be a college of humanity, with a principal, public reader, and six regents, for the teaching of languages on the model of the academy of Geneva; a college for philosophy with a principal, a reader in medicine, and four regents; and a college of divinity, with a principal who was to read Hebrew, and a reader in law. This inadequate scheme, in which languages were given too great preponderance, was much improved by the reform projected and in part effected by


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Trade in & Trade up
The challenge
Working with Sky, LG asked Opia to drive the sales of LG OLED 4K TVs and LG Super UHD TVs, and to increase the number of customers signing up to Sky services. They knew they needed something special if they wanted to reach these two distinct objectives and stand out in the extremely competitive electronics market.
Having previously delivered hugely successful campaigns for LG, which had included the distribution of digital codes as rewards, we already had a keen understanding of their specific business challenges. With Sky now in the mix, we saw an opportunity to create an irresistible entertainment package that would boost sales and bolster brand image. The promotion went as follows: LG TV purchasers received a discounted Sky Q subscription plus one of several bundle packages, including Multi Screen and the Variety Bundle, depending on the product purchased. It was an end to end solution for which we created the branded claim site, and managed validation, fulfilment and customer service support. We even created different claim form routes depending on whether a consumer was an existing Sky TV account holder or not.


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Hey blogosphere. Jacob here.
Dana's post about butterflies inspired me to share some nature meself. I recently attended the launch party of Bird Fellow, and I must recommend it to anyone who has an interest in birds. The website is described as "birding services, social networking, and habitat conservation", and presents as a way to identify birds and share your experiences with people around the world. The most impressive part, perhaps, isn't even the photos, which are amazing by themselves.
Ahem. Right. Moving along.
The website is co-founded by David Irons, a man known widely in the birding community as a foremost expert in North American bird species, and considered simply the best birder in the state of Oregon if not the Pacific Northwest by many who share the past time.
But enough about the factoids, let's look at some more birds.
Guys, this thing here ^ is called a Loon. Ha. Crazy loo-oh god why are its eyes red?! I think it just peered into my soul. And, finding nothing of interest, resumes preening.


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You could never be old father!
Neeraj Shinde Friday, January 06, 2006 Philosophical No commentsBy Neeraj Shinde
"I can't work anymore! I want to sit home with you all and relax. I can't carry all that anymore."
Such words from Dad make me realize his entrance in Geezerhood. And, all of a sudden a bold, strong Dad becomes so weak, so timid. This is the time he feels he needs a break. This is followed by a reduction in confidence level and that's a major reason of heartache in most of the seniors. I know great many people who dislike gray hairs mostly because of their pessimistic approach towards life. Reduction of confidence levels could be due to several factors apart from health fronts. It could be due to some unachieved feats or some things not confessed. Certainly, there is a feeling of dissatisfaction not due to loss of a long owned power but due to certain things not occurred or occurred and a few tasks yet unaccomplished. Nonetheless, there is no end to what one can do but life seems to be too short when one decides to do something great. Consequently, a feeling of failure starts haunting him.
"Are you crazy Dad? Don't be a nerd. You are not old yet!" I say but Dad seems so reluctant to accept it.
Old age is mostly psychological rather than physical. When a father finds his sons taller than him, certainly makes him feel older. He starts feeling tired, weary for what he has done till date and wants to pass on his responsibilities. He feels the power of his arms within his sons and himself powerless as if he was never strong. No matter he is a great man for all the things he has done so far. This! Definitely is a time he has to be rewarded for all his efforts, for all the pains he took! Its time for him to feel his achievements and feel the bliss for which to achieve he has toiled till now. He is the one who taught me how to differentiate between the good and the bad, to fight against the unfair, to respect the great and to suppress the false. The lessons of ethics and the postulates of truth that you taught me are so strong to sustain me that I need not bother of my deviation from them for the rest of my life. Today, your body looks old but never would be your mind. You can still continue inspiring people and transform them into great humans, sculpt numerous of Neeraj, your words do have the same impact even today, and you rock even today!
You could never be old father!
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text: Demand for live streaming of games is increasing on PCs and Smartphones. With sites like Justin.tv, UStream and game streaming sites like Twitch.tv and Own3d.tv today there is no dearth in availability of streaming sites these days for streaming live news and entertainment shows. The problem that users are facing these days is that thereContinue reading "Top Tips for video and live gaming streaming related problems on PC's and Smartphones"


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The Little Ripon Bookshop
12-13 Westgate,
North Yorkshire.
Opening Hours
Monday to Saturday 9.00am-5.30pm
Sunday 11am-5pm
tel:01765 606689
email: [email protected]
To order a book please give all known details e.g. author, title or ISBN, in the space below and we'll get back to you to confirm your order:
We look forward to seeing you at our shop. We are easy to find - from the market place in Ripon, follow Westgate towards the swimming pool and the Spa Gardens. We are on the right hand side, between Westgate Fine Art and Valentino's Italian Restaurant. If you would like to order a book before you visit, please call or email us or use the form below. Orders placed before 5pm should be available for collection from the shop the following morning after 11.30am. Please note that we are closed on Sundays.


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50mm rear axle for Compkart Covert 3.0 and Compkart 4R racing chassis. Standard length = 1030mm
Tuning tricks:
With the Compkart chassis, softer axles provide higher grip, and stiffer axles reduce rear grip. During rain or very low grip conditions, softer axles are generally preferred. As grip increases and rubber accumulates, try moving towards stiffer axles, or try a cut down axle (1010mm).


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- An enchanting new scent joins the floral Dolce garden. Dolce Rosa Excelsa truly captures rose petals in bloom.
- Opening the fragrance, neroli leaves and papaya dissipate into a white water lily and white daffodil bouquet. A charmingly rich African dog rose heart emerges alongside intense pink-flowered Turkish rose absolute. Finally, musky cashmeran and sandalwood trail sensual, earthy, and piquant spices in the base.
- Recalling the Dolce bottle, the thick-frosted glass and a flower-sculpted crimson cap showcase the exquisite pale pink elixir. Notes: Papaya Flower, Neroli leaves, White Amaryllis, White Daffodil, White water Lily, African Dog Rose, Turkish Rose Absolute, Cashmeran, Musk, Sandalwood. Style: Fresh Floral.


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Americans Can't Find a Screen They Won't Watch: TV, Web Video Both Up
One big reason why very few ad dollars have yet to make their way from television to the Web, even though online video is booming: TV viewing isn't shrinking. Yet.
So says Nielsen, via its newest "Three Screen Report." The tracking service says more Americans are watching TV than ever before–up 1.2 percent in the last quarter–and they're spending more time watching TV, too–that's up 1.9 percent, to a staggering 153-plus hours per month. Of course, the same holds true for Web video, which is growing much faster.
Here's how the data break down. Total number of viewers (click to enlarge):
Time spent viewing (click to enlarge):
Don't be fooled: As much as the blogosphere likes to describe the TV guys as clueless dummies, they're well aware that they're now competing with the likes of Hulu and Google's (GOOG) YouTube for their viewers' time. That's why Hulu, the JV between GE's (GE) NBC, News Corp.'s (NWS) Fox, and now, Disney's (DIS) ABC, remains such a controversial site within the industry–one camp thinks it's the best way for the networks to position themselves against the eventual move to the Web, and the other thinks they're hastening their own demise by training viewers to expect free, on-demand access via the Web.
We may get a slightly better sense of what advertisers think about this soon. It's "upfront" week in New York, which means that all the broadcast networks–CBS (CBS), NBC, Fox and ABC have begun selling their wares to advertisers for next year. Prognosticators are betting that upfront sales could be down by 15 percent or so this year, but they're assuming that most of that decrease has to do with the miserable economy, not a full-blown move–or "secular shift," as the smart guys like to say–away from TV and to the Web. If that decrease gets much bigger though, it could mean something else is afoot.
Enough with the serious! Here's the excellent celebrity singalong from the finale of "30 Rock," which aired last week. NBC only allows Hulu to keep episodes of the show on the site for a limited time (expect to see more of this restriction, not less), so this may only work for a few weeks. Enjoy:


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Yesterday me and my husband caught a flight to Atlanta, GA. This is the first leg of our little Summer vacation. Or, as I've been calling it…#Baecation.
One thing that I absolutely love and want to do so much more of is traveling.
Garrick and I love to travel together. Now, as a newlywed couple, we plan to travel as much as we can.
I love us as a couple and I love our differences. However, when it comes to traveling, it's our similarities that makes the time spent so wonderful. We enjoy laid back adventures. We enjoy the idea of being swallowed by historic environments. We enjoy being food lovers, and trying new restaurants.
That's what we've been doing here in Atlanta. On the map, I realize Georgia is kind of on the East side a bit…but, I still consider it to be very much Southern. Obviously nothing's more SOUTH as Texas…but, it definitely has that Southern charm. We've appropriately nick named this trip #ThompsonsTakeTheSouth.
First of all, let's talk about this gorgeous hotel. I found a super cute boutique style hotel. It's over 90 years old! It's called The Artmore. I already knew that it's age meant it would be charming.
Our little room is tiny. Small and cozy. There's a doorbell and a chain lock on the door. The bathroom is only big enough for one person to fit in at a time. So, no showering together or anything like that. Not.A.Chance. Someone could get hurt. Haha. But, still…very cute! The modern decor of the place really adds so much personality.
The Artmore hotel is in Midtown and although it's technically walking distance from many restaurants, I can't lie, we've been taking LYFT (like uber), way more than walking.
Our first stop for food (while we waited for our room to be ready) was the Highland Bakery. Garrick got the French Toast pictured below. I had some delicious sweet potato pancakes. I did not take a picture, but it was so good!
After we ate breakfast, we walked around a while and chilled. We still had time to kill and decided on pedicures. I'm glad to have a man who is not ashamed to get a good pedicure with me. We visited Piedmont Nails and Spa. A pretty big salon! They did a good job, but I'm kind of partial to my salon back home. Lol
After pedis, we went to a restaurant called 10th & Piedmont for lunch. My goodness! Between my chicken sandwich, Garrick's smoked pork sliders, the skillet Mac and Cheese and our truffle fries…we had a mini feast.
We've been here for less than 2 days and have eaten about 6 different places.
What's #Baecation without food? Absolutely NOTHING!
Nachos and Baja Tacos + $4 house margaritas at Zocalo in Midtown.
Warm peach, pumpkin, and cranberry bread + Buttermilk Fried Chicken Benedict with cheesy grits at Einstein's.
We stopped at "The Vortex" (Garrick saw on Man vs. Food) He had a burger topped with ham + tots. I had a Buffalo Bomber chicken sandwich and fried zucchini. (21 and up only)
As you can see, we are eating our hearts out and having a good time! I'll share with you all about some of the other NON-FOOD places we've seen later. Like, the Martin Luther King Historic sites.
For now, this wanderlusting lady is ready for bed.


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Spring is finally here in London! Winter darkness is behind us and it's time to come out of hibernation. April is the time of year when we start enjoying another side to London life – open air cinemas, picnics in the park, beer gardens etc. It's such an exciting and invigorating capital, I can't help but count myself lucky to live in a city packed with world-class food, art, music…(minus the tube commute of course).
When I moved back to London last August, I started to properly explore the city as a Londoner and realised that I knew only a tiny bit of this incredible microcosm. With that in mind, I decided to make it a pact to try something new every week, whether a new place to eat, a new exhibition, or new street market. And with there being so much to do here, it hasn't been difficult at all!!
I love being given new recommendations of places to go and things to do, so I thought I would start my Instagram series again on the blog. This way I can share a round-up of recent things I've been up to city, and maybe even inspire you with something new to explore 🙂 If any of you have any recommendations, please share!!
Follow me on Instagram: @Victoriametaxas
– Pictured above is brunch with a twist at the Modern Pantry in Farringdon. This quaint restaurant is perfect for whoever loves something a little bit different for their weekend grub. I tried the delicious poached eggs with chorizo, sweetcorn and red pepper salsa… yumm!! Definitely book in for their afternoon tea – the menu looks delicious!
– Recently took day stroll to Greenwich. Apart from the obvious things to visit – the Royal Observatory, the Cutty Sark and the National Maritime museum – there is also the Old Royal Naval College, which acts as home to the Painted Hall. It's one of the only frescos as big in the UK – just amazing. Plus if you fancy a gorgeous lunch by the river, head to the Trafalgar Tavern, you won't be disappointed.
– Alexander Mcqueen: Savage Beauty exhibition – the exhibition we have all been talking about. It truly is an incredible display of work from the one of the fashion industry's greatest designers. From armadillo stilettos, to ram horn head pieces, the whole show takes you on a raw emotional journey finding the beauty in everything we wear.
– Enjoying the spring blossom all over London. Don't miss the daffodils outside Tower Hill station and of course the pink cherry blossom in front of St Paul's.
– A quick coffee and cake pit-stop at the Exmouth Coffee Company. Try not to drool all over the pastries :p
Oh and for all you coffee addicts, don't forget to check out the London Coffee Festival happening soon!
– Finally, my latest foodie discovery is the new diner, Bad Egg, recently opened by the team behind Princess of Shoreditch. Think eggs, cheeseburger hash, kimchi and pulled pork that come together to form a Chicago-inspired devilishly delicious evening out.


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With Valentine's Day just around the corner, I've been racking my brain in hopes to come up with some sort of creative recipe that the kiddos could make at our classroom Valentine's Day party. Then, it hit me... Poppin' Love Potion Punch! Since our Snowman Slime recipe was such a … [Read more...]
Mother's & Father's Day DIY Tile Coasters
Are you looking for the perfect Mother's Day gift or Father's Day gift from kids that is simple enough for your little ones to make at school and requires very little prep?! Well, look no further! My clever teammate came up with the best idea! These hand drawn DIY tile coasters … [Read more...]
Dr. Seuss Birthday Party Ideas for the Classroom
Cultivating a love for reading in the primary grades is one of our ultimate goals, and what better way to help instill this love than by celebrating Dr. Seuss' birthday to help kick off Read Across America! Of course, our Dr. Seuss birthday celebration had to be just like any … [Read more...]
The Gingerbread Man Retelling Bracelet
Hi, friends! The holiday season is upon us... like literally just around the corner! The Gingerbread Man is one of my favorite topics during the month of December. We make gingerbread houses, taste gingerbread cookies, and even make a Gingerbread Man retelling … [Read more...]
30 Turkey Crafts and Activities for the Classroom
Hi, friends! Apparently, I have a thing for turkey crafts! Who knew?! As I was scrolling through my photos, I slowly began to realize this infatuation. I mean... they are so incredibly adorable, and it's super easy to turn virtually anything into a turkey! In preparation for … [Read more...]
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One of the underlying principles of Agile and consequently areas of activity in an Agile transformation programme is Empowerment. I am a big driver of empowerment in my explanations and preferred implementations of Agile delivery – and it takes time.
There are two challenges – firstly encouraging people that have been micromanaged to step up and take decisions, secondly to encourage people, who until recently have been making decisions, to back off and at most facilitate team discussions to make those decisions.
Enabling those things to occur is a complex and difficult challenge but that isn't the thrust of this post.
Assuming that this has occurred we now have a team of empowered professionals that are shaping their world and the delivery of their product. They are in some context – free. I have heard Agile referred to as, "developer emancipation". The teams have gained their freedom and the natural passion this evokes in delivery can be related to the soaring of a bird or the breaching of a whale, an expression of joy within their environment.
But consider a caged bird – which sang happily in the cage, ignorant of what lay beyond, or of the feeling of the wind beneath it's wings. If you set the bird free and encourage it to fly and fend for itself … it will never return to the cage; and if you do capture it and return it to the cage, will it sing as sweet?
There is a risk in a non-committed Agile adoption that if you develop genuine Agile culture in a team and then opt (for holistic organisational cohesive reasons) to roll back to a waterfall model, then you are forcing your now "free bird" back into the cage. It is one thing to have never had responsibility or freedom, but to have had it, and then had it taken away can crush the spirit.
Organisations when considering an Agile adoption need to be cognisant of the risks they are undertaking. The change involved is not simple or pain-free, rolling back may suit those that never embraced the values, but for those that did achieve it, rolling back will be even more destructive than the initial adoption. I would warn that those that have tasted freedom, will not accept confinement, and if the organisation cannot sustain, or compensate for it, then they may fly outside to freedom.


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Presented by Akko Art Gallery Bangkok Thailand. Map & address on bottom of page British &
Japanese Management
Vichoke Mukdamanee
Director of the Art Centre, Silapakorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Akko Art Gallery in Bangkok, Thailand held an exhibition titled "Face 2001" in March/April by Ajan(Professor)Vichoke,
and the works below are the ones still available from the exhibition.
Akko Art Gallery 919/1 Sukhumvit Rd Bangkok 10110, Thailand Tel :662 259 1436 Fax
:662 662 4209
Opening hours Sundays: 2pm - 7pm Daily :10am - 7pm
Akko Gallery Tel (66-2)259 1436
Click here to Email us: email@example.com


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Scope: 2,500 SF Corporate Headquarters
Completed: April 2017
About: The Cowtown Cycle Party program is unique – half party bicycle storage/half electric bicycle shop with an office, tool bench, breakroom, and restroom. The Cycle Party is a 16-person BYOB bicycle powered entirely by friends. It's an eco-friendly way to exercise while visiting attractions in Downtown and the Near Southside Fort Worth. In addition, Pedego Electric Bicycles are sold from the location.
Exterior: The building is a simplified shed form with accentuated metal trim, clad in metal siding with a shipping container crashing through the front facade.
Interior: The interior is minimal to match the exterior. Finishes include raw concrete floor, exposed steel structure, and painted shipping container.
Photos by Parish Photography


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- How can I start small and grow organically over time?
- How can I limit my initial investment while still getting the best in terms of efficiency?
- How can I begin quickly, with something that is familiar to me like an appliance, but with the same advantages I get from standard deployments?
In this webinar we will answer these questions and many others. Thanks to our partnership with Ambedded Technology, OpenIO SDS can now run on the Mars200 appliance, a compact and fully redundant 1 RU appliance, with 8 ARM micro-servers, each one serving a single hard disk.
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- How to buy it.


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Working at HappyFunCorp means working with great people on an interesting range of projects. Our HQ is in Brooklyn but our team spans the globe. We're looking for folks who are friendly, hard-working, curious, and whip smart.
- Unlimited time off, we'll hold your job
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Available Positions
We're always happy to get connected with talented people.
If you don't see a listing that fits you, feel free to submit a general application.


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Author(s): Alistair Lawrence
The first photographic celebration of the most famous recording studio in the world, publishing in its 80th year. Unprecedented access to the Abbey Road archive - from Edward Elgar to the Beatles, Kate Bush to Elbow the most famous artists in the world have recorded here. This gorgeous book includes material on the artists, the engineers, the technology and the history of Abbey Road. It's an incredible document of cultural history, for anyone who values music and how it's made.
A photographic celebration of the most famous recording studio in the world with a foreword by the late Sir George Martin.
Abbey Road Studios is the most famous recording studio complex in the world and with an unparalleled history of recording, working with some of the world's most celebrated artists, producers, composers and orchestras. The studios have been at the heart of the music industry for 80 years and have been the location of countless landmark recordings. Abbey Road remains one of the most technically advanced recording and mixing facilities in the world with a unique blend of vintage equipment and today's leading technology. Alistair Lawrence is a freelance music journalist.


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At todays meeting Loretta L, Geri, Tim, Susan, Mike, Jeanne, Jeanie, Kristina, Kathy, Ward, Carolynn (new), Genie, Dave, Sharon, Jim, Eunice, Loretta U, Kristina, Christine, Tom, Anna, John, Paula, and me Celeste.
Today's suggested table topic: how do you describe light in paint? How do you "capture" the light? Do you have specific tips?
Celeste: I read an article about the Boston School of Painting, specifically notes from Frank Benson. He said that if you have trouble in your painting go back and revisit the light and shadow. The problem often comes from painting objects instead of painting how the light falls upon the object. I'm showing recent paintings. (I like to paint these small paintings, it makes daily painting manageable).
Mike: Watercolorists know that this is the light! (Mike holds up a white paper) (laughter)! In watercolor we have to be mindful to reserve the light in the paper. I took a workshop with Eric Wiegart he recommended Carlson's Guide to Landscape Painting. It's really great book that spells out light on various planes (sky, flat, slanted, upright, etc.).
Jeanne: This is a painting I did after the artist Vuillard. I really love how he handled the light here. It is really worthwhile to paint some of the master paintings! I'm also showing an oil sketch from life. I have been taking a class with Phyllis Trowbridge. I'm also showing a book about Matisse and Diebenkorn. This shows their work side by side. This has to do with the show that is in San Francisco (SFMOMA). I encourage everyone to go and see the show there-- it is actually doable in one day! (I've gone to other shows in SF—and done it in just one day). The show is up until May 29:
Kathy: I paint with watercolors, but I have more of an acrylic way about my painting. (I often take more of an opaque approach). I don't leave a lot of the whites on the paper in the traditional watercolor manner. In this painting I concentrated on the lights in the eyes.
Kristina: light is my main motivation. Jennifer Diehl tells her students that light is not "contained" by edges. Light goes beyond the edges! I am showing a recent painting from Italy and also I am showing this book by James Gurney, (Color and Light). I was especially impressed by his painting where he shows the light of the sky on this yellow shirt! In a similar manner… on my painting you can see the top of the tree is a blue green (to indicate the color of the sky).
Loretta L: In my classes I have been told, "value does all the work, but color gets all the credit"! The mid-tones really define the light. I am showing you a plein air that I did in acrylic and a value study in black and white.
Tom: I pass on this topic
Tim: I looked out from my studio to see that the light was both stormy and light at the same time. I jumped up and tried feverishly to capture the look of it! Here's the result. I really liked doing this -- I was forced into it with no time to think. I'm also showing a recent portrait (of my granddaughter).
Geri: I am a big fan of lost and found edges...where the light comes together with the background…I will emphasize that (erasing big areas—like in this drawing). It lends mystery. I am showing a drawing that I did at the Portland Art Museum –it is from a photograph by Richard Avedon.
John: I have just recently returned from a trip to Arizona. I took thousands of photographs! (Laughter)! We went to the Phoenix Art Museum and we also visited Carefree. I saw a lot of art there. I always enjoy coming to this meeting to learn things! Thank you!
Anna: A long time ago Jennifer Diehl recommended that I read a book by Ian Roberts on composition. I didn't do it at that time, but I've since gotten the book and now I've been doing value studies. I wish I done this when she told me to do it (Laughter)! What I have learned is that my mid tones have not been dark enough. You have to have your mid-tones dark enough to be able to indicate light highlights. I love the new challenge that we're doing on Facebook. It is making me think about composition. I watched the Bryan Mark Taylor DVD (the section about light and shadow). I am showing recent still life painting. I bought some of these objects at Goodwill.
Loretta U: Middle tone is a new concept for me! (Laughter)! I will think about it! I am showing a painting I did recently.
Susan: This topic comes up a lot in the class I teach. If one of my students is having trouble I'll tell them to take a picture of what they are painting and to convert it to black-and-white. Then you can see right away what the problem might be. I recently decided that I wanted to paint this photograph… It's from a trip decades ago. It is for a show called "Under a vast sky".
Ward: As a teenager I was really interested in photography. I read a lot about Ansel Adams and it is cemented in my soul. When you complete an image you know if you did great—you just feel it and know it. You also know if you missed the mark. Trust yourself. You can fix it. I am showing a painting that I did recently. The section here got damaged—the paper got damaged….but I found a product that could fix it! Watercolor is really not as unforgiving as we have been led to believe. You can fix anything! Oh--I am going to be purchasing a new drum and I can't wait to bring it in and play it for everyone!
Paula: I have been taking an online class with Marla Baggetta. I have been working on capturing the light! These studies are done on toned paper. The underpainting always makes such a positive difference. You can see in these two paintings that they are different in temperature.
Jeanie: I am working on a very large painting. It is 3.5 x 4.5 – and I don't mean inches (Laughter)! It is the biggest canvas I've ever worked on. The subject is water and sky with rays of light from the sky. I have to keep working on it --because right now it looks like an alien spaceship (laughter)!
Carolynn: I'm new (Welcome, Carolynn)! I am from Scappoose. I had a wonderful high school art teacher --he taught us about oil. Watercolor and acrylic seemed foreign to me., but I've tried it. I did this copy from a book and also this copy of a Tom Browning painting. I painted this teddy bear-- it was originally white and I changed the color of it
Christine: When I was a graphic artist I did a press check with a client. He stood next to the printing press with and asked me…"could we get the paper whiter"? (Uh no!) (Laughter)! Of course it was not only a matter of what type of paper we were printing ---but also what colors were next to the white of the paper. You have to have something really dark next to the white in order to make it appear the "brightest white"! I am showing a recent painting.
Eugenia (Genie): I did this painting in the Colley Whisson workshop. His work emanates light! My husband made these blocks for me because I was reading about these color blocks and how valuable it is to paint them. I read that in this book, Impressionist Landscapes. I'm going to do more studies with these blocks. I remember what Za said about having fun! I like an artist named Erin Gregory and I did this painting along the lines of her type of work.
Dave: What attracts me is high contrast. I have found that putting down small color notes directly on your canvas is so helpful…just put a small indication of what color goes where—it reminds you of your plan. I am showing a painting of the ocean and also another recent painting (of an area near where Sharon is from).
Sharon: I am so impressed by everyone's work! Glad to be here. J
Jim: I wish I had the painting that I'd like to show you. It was sold. It was a real lesson in lights and darks together. I have been remodeling my house. It has been a very big challenge to do daily paintings on the Facebook challenge throughout this time, but I have done it. I left my wife in the laundry room and went outside to paint this stormy sky. I'm also showing the result and also a painting I did of a toy that I had when I was a child.
Eunice: I will be doing more value studies the future. I have been taking an online class with Dennis Perrin. I'm showing a painting that I did recently -- a rose and also painting I did of some tulips from a photo reference.
Max Ginsberg demonstration and lecture April 23 Sunday 1 to 4pm, $50 (There will be a limit and it is already ½ full sign up now if you are interested)!
Joanne Kollman drop-in class Friday setting out your palette warm and cool
Clothed model sessions are 1 to 4 on Fridays
Classes with Ward, Brenda, Susan, Joanne, Michael Orwick, Steve and others:
Art Extravaganza with Susan Kuznitsky and Ward Stroud Saturday April 22
Susan Kuznitsky featured by Informed Collector:
Susan Kuznitsky will be teaching a class called Plein Air in the Garden July 21-23 (see info below)
Jeanne Chamberlain is having her first solo show at the Multnomah art center you are all cordially invited to her reception-- it is on Cinco de Mayo day. (also see info below) May 5, 7-9pm
Mike Porter makes fabulous wood-turned brush holders and /or coffee scoops –he donates the proceeds to charity. Contact Mike Porter <email@example.com>
Elizabeth Ganji is At Art on the Boulevard