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Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems
Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.'s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future.
With the term "equation-free" in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing "clarity and precision into conjecture" (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.
However, mathematics has not had the "unreasonable effectiveness" in ecology that it has had in physics. Critics point out that models in ecology have not passed the criterion of predictive ability (3, 4). There are many reasons for this, one being the highly nonlinear nature of ecological interactions. This has led to arguments over whether the "right" models are being used, but also to broad opinion that, unlike in physics, there are no right models to describe the dynamics of ecological systems, and that the best that can be done is to find models that are at least good approximations for the phenomena they are trying to describe. It is common in introductions of ecological modeling to find descriptions of the "modeling cycle," in which a question is formulated, hypotheses are made, a model structure is chosen in the form of variables and equations, the equations are parameterized according to best information, and the model is analyzed and compared with patterns in nature. The cycle can be repeated again and again to obtain the best fit or validation by data. Although this methodology may work for some cases, it has become clear that there are limits on the accuracy of models applied to systems, with many variables interacting nonlinearly to create complex dynamics (e.g., marine ecosystems). Complete parameterization of models of such systems is nearly impossible. Furthermore, the nonlinearities of ecological systems cause models to be so sensitive to structure and parameters that even the most thoroughly and carefully developed model can hardly be expected to be predictive (5⇓–7).
The message of Ye et al.'s report (1) is that there are ways to make predictive forecasts that do not rely on specifying equations at all, thus avoiding the problems outlined above. One can say generally that "the study of natural systems begins and ends with the specification of observables describing such a system, and a characterization of the manner in which these observations are linked" (8). In traditional models, equations are formulated with certain functional forms characterizing linkages of variables. For example, the Ricker difference equation model links the number of recruits to a fish population, Rt, to population size Si through the relationship Rt = St exp(r – αSt), so that population size can be projected ahead to St+1 at time t + 1. Given a set of time series data from a fishery, the modeler attempts to find values of r and α from the best fit for the equation. Most models are more complex, linking a population's change through time to its own current size, the sizes of other populations, and relevant abiotic conditions. The functional forms describing these linkages can in principle be estimated based on measured correlations between variables over time. Although such correlations can in principle be extracted from data, meta-analyses on marine fisheries show that apparent correlations between populations and environmental variables have not stood up when additional data were analyzed (9). This is an important part of the argument of Ye et al. (1) in favor of equation-free modeling. To illustrate this point, Sugihara et al. (10) generated time series from a nonlinear model of two marine populations fluctuating through time, showing that what appear to be tightly positive correlations, over a period, suddenly switch to no correlation or even a negative correlation for another period (Fig. 1). Parameterizing equations based on these "mirage correlations" from one part of the time series would produce models that make false predictions.
The mirage correlations reflect deeper causes involving nonlinear interactions within the system. Rather than declaring analysis impossible, Ye et al. (1) show that there is an alternative that starts with the time series, without a presupposed set of equations. In this equation-free or nonparametric approach, no equation is assumed that needs to be parameterized. Instead, the dataset is used to build a model independent of equations. The basic idea is related to a question asked by Schaffer and Kot (11): "Do strange attractors govern ecological systems?" The authors showed that even time series that appear to be completely random could be following an underlying deterministic dynamic. The time map of any single population is an emergent property of interactions with other populations and abiotic conditions. Understanding the dynamics would require plotting all N-interacting variables in an N-dimensional phase space, something that is practically impossible for any real system because of the lack of data on most species in a community. However, if there is a sufficiently long time series for one population, a theorem of Takens (12) solves this problem. Takens showed that an N-dimensional phase portrait having the same dynamic properties as the portrait from the N-independent variables could be constructed by plotting the population size x(t) versus x(t+T), vs. x(t+2T)…vs. x(t+(M − 1)T), where T is a time delay. Using an appropriate value of T, a subset of these time-lag variables could be plotted (or embedded) in phase space. An ecological time series plotted in this way will usually collapse to a geometric shape of dimensions less than the number of relevant variables would suggest. Often, three dimensions are sufficient to view the trajectories forming an "attractor," a criterion for which is that the trajectories do not cross. What is important is that this preserves the essential features of the dynamics of the N variables. Sugihara
The broader message of the Ye et al. report is that science may be moving into a period where equations do not play the central role in describing dynamic systems that they have played in the last 300 years. and his colleagues (10) made important additions to this embedding theorem of Takens; in particular, showing that it is possible to create a composite time series from ecologically similar species in the same geographic region to form a longer time series, and thus create a better model. Ye et al. (1) apply this approach to sockeye salmon stocks in the Fraser River. Dividing a time series of nine salmon stocks into "library data" used to calibrate, and "predict data" used to test the model, the authors show that their results are substantially better for most stocks than the parametric models, Ricker and extended Ricker. This approach allows projection into the future. One might quibble that it is well known that the Ricker is poor at describing population dynamics, so it is an easy target, but the comparison clearly demonstrates that, in this case, assuming no equations is better than assuming some traditional equations.
The broader message of the Ye et al. (1) report is that science may be moving into a period where equations do not play the central role in describing dynamic systems that they have played in the last 300 years. This is largely the result of the rapidly increasing power of computers. Another sign of this trend is that, from a very different direction, two related classes of equation-free models have emerged as computational power increased. The methodology of individual- or agent-based modeling does not specify equations at the level of populations and communities, and instead simulates the individual organisms and their interactions with each other and the environment (5). A related approach, cellular automata models, is based on local laws determining transitions of spatial cells between different states. Although it would not seem intuitively that cellular automata models can describe biological systems, Wolfram (13), through his Principle of Computational Equivalence, has proposed that it can form a universal foundation for all phenomena of nature. Both individual- or agent-based models and cellular automata models are bottom-up approaches for constructing models of phenomena, and although deeply different conceptually from EDM, are similar in not specifying equations for population level variables.
The EDM approach demonstrates progress toward solving important but seemingly intractable problems of ecology; predicting behavior of complex nonlinear dynamic systems with limited information. This approach also suggests that, with high-performance computation, the study of dynamic systems is moving away from formulation and parameterization of equations and toward letting data directly determine the model. Because of the central role equations hold in science, it also raises questions: How will these changes affect the way scientists communicate, the way they understand, and the way they think?
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- Pilkey-Jarvis L
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- Rand DA,
- Young LS
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Citation Manager Formats
Article Classifications
- Biological Sciences
- Ecology


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ROCHESTER — About a year ago, city woman Terri Willard fell while walking on ice. She went for an X-ray and was shocked when doctors found a large mass in her lung.
Willard, 53, now needs urgent surgery at Massachusetts General Hospital to remove six-centimeter mass. But because she has no health insurance, and is not eligible for Medicaid despite a tough financial situation, she has been unable to have the procedure done.
Willard is a nonsmoker, although she has been surrounded by secondhand smoke most of her life. Now, as a worst-case scenario, she may have to get her entire lung removed.
Without health insurance, Willard has been unable to get an appointment at Mass. General for the lung reconstruction surgery. She said local hospitals, such as Wentworth-Douglas and Frisbie Memorial Hospital, are not equipped for the procedure she needs.
Fortunately for Willard, 90 percent of the mass is benign. But according to her surgeon, the procedure can't wait.
"He is stating it is urgent," she said.
Willard has been without health insurance since 2009 when she lost her job as a medical secretary. Getting health insurance is not affordable for Willard and her husband, who live paycheck-to-paycheck, she said in an interview on Tuesday. Joining her husband's insurance would cost an additional $400 a month, and signing up for insurance in the New Hampshire health insurance exchange under Affordable Care Act would cost $600 a month.
Since the mass was discovered in her lung, Willard has been through "a roller coaster of emotions" due to risk to her health and the high cost of care.
Over several months of tests at Wentworth-Douglas Hospital, Willard has incurred about $40,000 in debt. She believes the much-needed surgery and after-care would cost even more.
In addition, Willard's health costs already reach $300 a month for regular medications, such as for blood pressure.
"We are on the verge of losing our home, our car," said Willard. "It's a nightmare."
Even in light of her financial troubles, Willard's application for Medicaid was denied, even after her surgeon wrote a letter to the state of New Hampshire about the urgency of the surgery.
A few months ago, she was told by Department of Health and Human Services that her husband earns too much money for her to be eligible for Medicaid, she said. But according to Willard, she and her husband are not rich; her in-laws, who are almost in their 90s, have spent thousands of dollars to help keep them afloat, she said.
For now Willard is hoping the DHHS will reconsider and accept her application for Medicare. She is also concerned about others who may be in the same situation.

subset: commoncrawl


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- Analiști
- Rapoarte analiști
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Profil analist
Gaal Gellert
Gaal Gellért started his university studies at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics then graduated with a master's degree in finance from Corvinus University of Budapest. In addition to his studies in Hungary, he also attended courses at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. He was on the Budapest Stock Exchange team from 2013 to 2014, then worked as a risk analyst. He joined Concorde's research team in 2015 and now specialises in regional banks.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary's leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
|February 16, 2017
|Extremely cold winter brought amazingly good results


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Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) Claim BOP Engine "Tamper" at Shanghai
Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) has disputed the Balance of Performance in the GTE-Pro class ahead of Sunday's 2nd to last round of the FIA World Endurance Championship in Shanghai.
The pair of AF Corse Ferrari 488 GTEs, which topped the time charts in Friday's Free Practice 2, struggled to find pace Saturday, after what the Italian manufacturer initially claimed was due to an overnight Balance of Performance adjustment.
The FIA clarified that no BOP change was made, but just a minor atmospheric pressure adjustment to compensate for a change in ambient temperatures to equalize performance between normally aspirated and turbocharged cars. Call it a "tamper."
Meanwhile, after the "tamper" Ford (NYSE:F) dominated qualifying, claiming its 2nd consecutive front row sweep, following a commanding 1-2 run in the last round at Japan's Fuji Speedway.
Rumors of Ferrari lodging a protest and possible boycott from the season-ending round in Bahrain made the rounds in the paddock, although it's understood there were lengthy meetings between representatives from the Italian manufacturer, the FIA and ACO this evening.
Both AF Corse team principal Amato Ferrari and Antonello Coletta, head of Ferrari's GT racing activities, declined comment on the developing situation.
The team's drivers voiced their displeasure over the gap in performance post-qualifying.
"The big question I want to ask is how the other cars can find 2.5 seconds from yesterday to today," Gianmaria Bruni told Sportscar365. "We only found three-tenths from my best lap yesterday to my best lap today."
Mr. Bruni and co-driver James Calado qualified 4th in class for Sunday's race, with a best 2-lap average that was nearly 1-sec slower than the pole-sitting Ford.
"It's just ridiculous. [We're in another] class," Mr. Calado said. "It's annoying when you work hard over the year to find hundreds, tenths in tires or in setup or balance.
"As soon as we put that work down to the ground, they take it off again. There is nothing we can do. We are a passenger in the car. We cannot show our true skill."
Ferrari has been winless in WEC competition since the 4th round of the season at the Nürburgring, although the 488 GTEs received a slight increase in mid-to-high range boost for this weekend.
The latest BOP change, made prior to the weekend, was the 9th adjustment made to the class since the start of the season.
It comes while in an ultra-tight battle for the GT Manufacturers' Cup, which sees Ferrari with a 3-point lead over Aston Martin with 2 rounds to go.
|Last Trade
|4 November 2016
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for RACE:
|Neutral (0.15)
|Neutral (-0.01)
|Neutral (-0.08)
|Very Bullish (0.54)
Enjoy the racing.
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Wimbledon fans had a double reason for celebration tonight after the Football League snubbed Dons chairman Charles Koppel's controversial plan to relocate the club 70 miles away at Milton Keynes.
Football League chief executive David Burns also made it clear he wanted the club to leave Selhurst Park and return to their traditional Merton home.
He told Koppel to consult fans and Merton Borough Council and "find a long-term solution to their homelessness".
The strongly-worded statement released tonight means Dons supporters - 4,000 of whom staged a 45-minute demonstration after Saturday's 3-1 victory over Birmingham - can now offer their input into plans to return the club to a ground in Merton.
The Football League's board of directors emerged from today's lengthy meeting to release a statement that read: "Following a long and detailed discussion, the board has concluded that the proposed move by Wimbledon Football Club to Milton Keynes cannot be sanctioned.
"The Football League will now actively encourage Wimbledon Football Club to work in partnership with their supporters and with Merton Borough Council to find a long-term solution to their homelessness."
Wimbledon Independent Supporters' Association led the campaign to halt the move to Milton Keynes - and WISA chairman Kris Stewart said he was eager to restart negotiations about a move back to Merton.
"We're delighted the Football League made the right decision in support of the club and for football in general," he said.
"We've won the battle, but we haven't won the war - we need to find our home. We now call on the club to re-engage with the fans and harness the passion we've seen over the last couple of weeks.
"We're working very closely with Merton Council and hope the club will rejoin the process, which they left a couple of weeks before announcing the intention to move to Milton Keynes."
The First Division club unveiled ambitious plans to build a 28,000-capacity stadium in the Buckinghamshire town earlier this month, ending a tenancy at Selhurst Park that started after leaving Plough Lane in 1991.
Burns added: "League rules clearly state that clubs should play in the conurbation from which they derive their name or are traditionally associated - unless given the approval to do otherwise by the board.
"To allow this move would have created a precedent at odds with the heritage of football in this country.
"Our football clubs are the heart and soul of their local communities and that is something that cannot be transferred from place to place."
Wimbledon legend Dickie Guy this week branded the club's relocation plans as "outrageous" and accused Koppel of lacking the "bottle" to address demonstrating fans.
Guy, now 52, was in goal during the Dons' 1974-75 FA Cup run, in which the then non-league outfit knocked out Division One side Burnley at Turf Moor and held the mighty Leeds to a 0-0 fourth-round draw at Elland Road before losing the replay 1-0.
After being told of today's news by PA Sport, Guy could scarcely contain his delight.
"That's absolutely brilliant," he said.
"I'm delighted. I don't know how they could expect fans to travel - it was far too far.
"They've (the supporters) had the club all their life and they (the club) were expecting them to make the trip there. It was out of the question."
Wimbledon refused to comment in the aftermath of the League ruling that has wrecked Koppel's dream.
Media communications manager Graham Thorley said the club would not be reacting to the news tonight, but plan to issue a statement tomorrow.
Ironically, it was Thorley who bore the brunt of fans' anger over the proposed move after Saturday's protest.
Fans demanded to be addressed by Koppel, but the chairman is believed to have left the ground before the final whistle.
He sent Thorley to read a statement to the crowd, but he was shouted down before being given a police escort from the pitch.
The Football League also rejected Second Division Brentford's application to ground share with Conference side Woking at their Kingfield Stadium.
Burns said - with clear reference to Wimbledon's plight: "Previous experience has taught us of the dangers of allowing clubs to move out of their home conurbation without having definite plans in place for a return.
"The Football League board fully empathises with the frustrations felt by Brentford FC over their attempts to relocate in the Hounslow area. We cannot, however, allow the club to move out of the area without the necessary contractual guarantees that it will return.
"We urge Hounslow Council to open up a dialogue with the club and its supporters groups at the earliest opportunity in order to ensure a healthy future for the club within the borough."


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At this year's Comic-Con, I got to speak with an actor whose work I really love: Guy Pearce. No matter the role, Pearce always delivers a great performance, and I really think he's one of the best actors working in Hollywood. Anyway, Pearce was at Comic-Con to help promote director Troy Nixey's Don't Be Afraid of the Dark. In the film, Pearce plays the father that doesn't believe the creatures are real. For more on the movie, here's our recap of the panel, the trailer, and my interview with Guillermo Del Toro and Katie Holmes from the L.A. Film Festival.
In addition to Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, Pearce talked about what it's like to work for Ridley Scott (he's in Prometheus), Lockout, John Hillcoat's Wettest Country in the World, Drake Doremus and a lot more. Hit the jump to watch.
Guy Pearce Time Index
- :18 Talks about this being his first Comic-Con experience.
- 1:41 What drew him to Don't Be Afraid of the Dark? He says meeting with director Troy Nixey was a big influence; as well as knowing Guillermo del Toro was producing it, in addition to the story.
- 4:23 Talks about his approach to preparation before each acting job. He says Factory Girl was the film he had the most preparation time on.
- 6:38 Talks briefly about working on Prometheus.
- 7:19 He speaks about Lockout, says it hasn't been released yet and he's not sure when it will be distributed. He doubts it will be able to come out this year, but he's not certain.
- 8:00 Talks about working on Wettest County. Talks about the performances and the story.
- 10:08 Future projects. Says he's about to work with Drake Doremus on his next untitled film.


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Alessia Pierdomenico/Reuters
Some separatists have criticized Paul McCartney's concert for Quebec's 400th anniversary, saying that it is a reminder of their 'Conquest'
Graeme Hamilton, National Post · Jul. 16, 2008 | Last Updated: Jul. 16, 2008 11:00 PM ET
MONTREAL -- He will be wielding a bass guitar, not a musket, but Paul McCartney's free concert this Sunday on Quebec City's Plains of Abraham has some sovereigntist politicians and artists complaining of another British invasion.
In an open letter endorsed by two Parti Québécois Members of the National Assembly, Quebec City painter and sculptor Luc Archambault informs McCartney that he should learn some French songs before coming to perform as part of Quebec City's 400th anniversary celebrations
"The presence of your English-language music on the most majestic part of Battlefields Park, as beautiful as it might be, can't help but bring back painful memories of our Conquest," Mr. Archambault writes.
Calling McCartney an "international Anglo-Saxon idol," he asks him to use his performance to make a plea for the sovereignty of the Quebec people. That, Mr. Archambault says, would display the same sensitivity to "the people of French Quebec" as the ex-Beatle has already shown to "the fate of the seals." (In 2006, McCartney and his then wife, Heather Mills, dropped on to ice floes off Quebec's Magdalene Islands to protest the seal hunt.)
He closes by proposing that McCartney agree to sing a duet of the nationalist anthem Les gens de mon pays with its author, Gilles Vigneault.
The initiative is endorsed by 35 writers, artists and politicians, including Pierre Curzi and Daniel Turp, who are, respectively, the culture and international relations critics for the PQ. In an interview published yesterday in Le Journal de Montréal, Mr. Curzi said McCartney's presence reflects a "Canadianization" of the anniversary celebrations.
"I really like Paul McCartney, but in this context, this is the last straw," Mr. Curzi said. "There is a clear Canadianization of the 400th celebrations. It is becoming a political gesture that tarnishes his presence." Pierre Falardeau, a separatist filmmaker, told the newspaper that inviting McCartney "makes us look like hicks who want to put themselves on the map."
When the McCartney concert was announced, Daniel Gélinas, head of the committee organizing the anniversary celebrations, said his presence reflected a balanced entertainment program "spotlighting the two founding peoples: France and the UK." Faced with some criticism that a marquee spot was being given to an English artist, organizers let it be known this week that McCartney is taking a crash course in French.
McCartney said yesterday on his Web site that he is looking forward to his first trip to Quebec City: "Me and the band are excited to finally get there and rock out with the good people of Quebec." Asked whether he will be speaking to the crowd in French, he answered, "Mais oui."
Jean Charest, the Quebec Premier, said Messrs. Curzi and Turp should be embarrassed for having spoken out against the concert. "Nobody criticizes Céline Dion for singing in Paris, Munich, England or elsewhere on the planet," he said.
The two homegrown acts announced to open for McCartney, The Stills and Pascale Picard, feature francophones who have made their names performing in English. Their selection has not drawn criticism.
Organizers are expecting 170,000 to 200,000 people at the concert, evidence that not all Quebecers are offended by the idea of an English concert. Even Mr. Archambault said he might attend. "He is an artist who has had had a crucial importance for our society," he said. The celebrations have already featured a July 3 concert by American rockers Van Halen. Ms. Dion will perform a free concert on Aug. 22.
National Post


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*Gasp*Perse is here! I need to call Bucky so he can provide protection for her from the evil pirates!
*faints**someone yells out* Oh no! She might need mouth-to-mouth resuscitation!!
-appears heroically in a (female?) Bucky costume and proceeds to snog, er...resuscitate! Sephy enthusiastically-
Well I'm think we'll either start tomorrow or Thursday. If we're one shy, so be it.
Well Myobi keeps poking me into here, so might as well throw my hat in! Need to exact my revenge after that last Werewolf game anyways!
I'm plotting on starting this tomorrow if all goes well.
Hopefully the utter insanity I have planned is worth the excitement!
Damn! I just saw this.I'd love to play in future games. :) You peeps have fun!
I'll save you a post in the next game, Rel!!
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CHICAGO — In this city's urgent push to rein in gun and gang violence, the Police Department is keeping a list. Derived from a computer algorithm that assigns scores based on arrests, shootings, affiliations with gang members and other variables, the list aims to predict who is most likely to be shot soon or to shoot someone. Shaquon Thomas was on it.
His first arrest came at age 13, and others quickly followed, his face maturing in a progression of mug shots. By 18, Mr. Thomas, who was known as the rapper Young Pappy, had been wounded in a shooting, the police said. Then, last May, Mr. Thomas, 19, was fatally shot in what the police said was a running gang feud. His score was more than 500, putting him near the top of the Chicago Police Department's list.
"We know we have a lot of violence in Chicago, but we also know there's a small segment that's driving this stuff," Eddie Johnson, the police superintendent, said in a recent interview.
The authorities hope that knowing who is most likely to be involved in violence can bring them a step closer to curtailing it. They are warning those highest on the list that they are under intense scrutiny, while offering social services to those who want a path away from the bloodshed.
About three years into the program and on a fourth revision of the computer algorithm that generates the list, critics are raising pointed questions about potential breaches to civil liberties in the creation of such a ranking. And the list's efficacy remains in doubt, as killings and shootings have continued to rise this year.
In a city of 2.7 million people, about 1,400 are responsible for much of the violence, Mr. Johnson said, and all of them are on what the department calls its Strategic Subject List.
So far this year, more than 70 percent of the people who have been shot in Chicago were on the list, according to the police, as were more than 80 percent of those arrested in connection with shootings.
In a broad drug and gang raid carried out last week amid a disturbing uptick this year in shootings and murders, the Police Department said 117 of the 140 people arrested were on the list.
And in one recent report on homicides and shootings over a two-day stretch, nearly everyone involved was on the list.
"We are targeting the correct individuals," Mr. Johnson said. "We just need our judicial partners and our state legislators to hold these people accountable."
Many government agencies and private entities are using data to try to predict outcomes, and local law enforcement organizations are increasingly testing such algorithms to fight crime. The computer model in Chicago, though, is uniquely framed around this city's particular problems: a large number of splintered gangs; an ever younger set of gang members, according to the police; and a rash of gun violence that is connected to acts of retaliation between gangs.
Supporters of Chicago's list say that it allows the police to focus on a small fraction of people creating chaos in the city rather than unfairly and ineffectively blanketing whole neighborhoods. But critics wonder whether there is value in predicting who is likely to shoot or be shot with seemingly little ability to prevent it, and they question the fairness and legality of creating a list of people deemed likely to commit crimes at some future time.
"We're concerned about this," said Karen Sheley, the director of the Police Practices Project of the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois. "There's a database of citizens built on unknown factors, and there's no way for people to challenge being on the list. How do you get on the list in the first place? We think it's dangerous to single out somebody based on secret police information."
The city is trying both to calm residents' worries about mounting violence and to rebuild community relations with the police after years of distrust, which boiled over with the release of a video six months ago showing a black teenager named Laquan McDonald being shot 16 times by a white police officer.
The Chicago police, which began creating the Strategic Subject List a few years ago, said they viewed it as in keeping with findings by Andrew Papachristos, a sociologist at Yale, who said that the city's homicides were concentrated within a relatively small number of social networks that represent a fraction of the population in high-crime neighborhoods.
Miles Wernick, a professor at the Illinois Institute of Technology, created the algorithm. It draws, the police say, on variables tied to a person's past behavior, particularly arrests and convictions, to predict who is most likely to become a "party to violence."
The police cited proprietary technology as the reason they would not make public the 10 variables used to create the list, but they said that some examples were questions like: Have you been shot before? Is your "trend line" for crimes increasing or decreasing? Do you have an arrest for weapons?
Dr. Wernick said the model intentionally avoided using variables that could discriminate in some way, like race, gender, ethnicity and geography.
Jonathan H. Lewin, the deputy chief of the Chicago Police Department's technology and records group, said: "This is not designed to replace the human process. This is just designed to inform it."
The police have been using the list, in part, to choose individuals for visits, known as custom notifications. Over the past three years, police officers, social workers and community leaders have gone to the homes of more than 1,300 people with high numbers on the list. Mr. Johnson, the police superintendent, said that officials were increasing those visits this year, adding at least 1,000 people.
During these visits — with those on the list and with their families, girlfriends and mothers — the police bluntly warn that the person is on the department's radar. Social workers who visit offer ways out of gangs, including drug treatment programs, housing and job training.
"We let you know that we know what's going on," said Christopher Mallette, the executive director of the Chicago Violence Reduction Strategy, a leader in the effort. "You know why we're here. We don't want you to get killed."
Uncertain, for now, is the effectiveness. The RAND Corporation is evaluating the city's list, but results are yet to be published. Mr. Mallette said that 21 percent of the people they had succeeded in talking to had sought assistance, and that fewer than 9 percent had been shot since a home visit.
A juvenile who has a high score on the list and who was visited last week was shot in the leg and injured on Sunday, the police said. They said he did not answer the door last week when the group went to his home.
Arthur J. Lurigio, a professor of psychology and criminology at Loyola University Chicago, said there was little evidence to date that the approach was slowing crime. "This is a first step," he said, "but now, figuring what to do with that list — that's another thing."
A police computer dashboard of the Strategic Subject List gives a glimpse of the arc of each person on it. Shaquon Thomas's entry went on and on: 23 arrests, the police said, mostly for misdemeanors, then the shootings.
"When people think we're profiling or targeting, it's not true," said Mr. Johnson, who was an officer here for decades before being appointed this year to succeed the superintendent in the aftermath of the Laquan McDonald video. "It has nothing to do with your race, your background. It's just all about the contacts you have with law enforcement."
The police said Shaquon Thomas was scheduled to receive a visit — one of the custom notifications — but he died before it could take place.


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Sunday, December 21, 2008
Grave of the Fireflies
Hotaru no haka; animated war drama, Japan, 1988; D: Isao Takahata, S: Tsutomu Tatsumi, Ayano Shiraishi, Yoshiko Shinohara
"In September '45, I died". The ghost of Seita tells about his death at the age of 14 due to starvation. His little sister Setsuko died a few days earlier and their ghosts tell the story of their lives: during World War II, Japan is in chaos, their mother died during the bombing of Kobe while their father fights on the Pacific. Seito and Setsuko leave their aunt and find a place to stay in an abandoned bunker. Since they are running out of food, Seita starts stealing clothes and vegetables, but in the end the tragic outcome is inevitable.
Isao Takahata made his education in a department of the big animation company "Toei Doga" and together with his mentor Miyazaki started to make anime shows, like "Heidi", until they formed the now famous studio Ghibli. There he made a few excellent films, like "Only Yesterday", and this devastating, slow burning anti-war anime movie, "Grave of the Fireflies", a very touching and personal dedication to the victims of World War II - the story is even more painful due to the fact that it tells that theme from the perspective of the most fragile ones, two children, Seita and Setsuko, who represent the Japan that hopelessly, but optimistically fights for survival during that period when the hate of their nationalist-irredentist politicians got them into such a mess that they had to start from year zero. The two protagonists are described gently, in a quiet and somber way, Setsuko in the scene where she salutes with a too big helmet on her head, Seita when he experiences a personal collapse and starts to cry. Due to the emotional attachment one can forgive the slightly overlong and exhausted running time towards the end, since it's a big shift from Disney's tradition, and even from the general Japanese action animation, especially since its touching setting will stay in the viewers' head for a very long time.
Posted by Marin Mandir at 4:18 PM
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Quick and easy application.
Effect visible after first application.
Golden natural-looking tan that does not wash out.
Unique caramel-nut fragrance neutralises the smell of DHA.
Suitable for face and body
skin type
all skin types
directions for use
Unfold the wipe and carefully rub the preparation into the clean and dry skin.
Avoid the eyebrows and hair roots area. Wash your hands after the application.
Avid contact with cloths until absorbed.
May be used every day or few times a week to get the desire tanning result.
active ingredients
bronzing substance – dihydroxyacetone – works on skin surface providing natural-looking tan that does not wash out
1 wipe


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"Modern slavery."
It sounds like a paradox. Hasn't humanity progressed? Didn't we leave slavery dead on the battlefields of the American Civil War? Didn't social reformers like Lincoln and Wilberforce legislate against such cruelty over a hundred years ago? So we had thought. But, with over 27 million enslaved people in the world, human trafficking is once again the battlefront of the century.
Regardless of nationality, victims are systematically stripped of their identity, battered into gruesome submission, and made to perform humiliating sexual acts on up to 40 strangers every night. Most are held in dingy apartments and brothels, forced to take heavy doses of illegal drugs, and monitored very closely. Victims are often thrown into such ghastly oppression at 13 years old. Some are abducted outright, while others are lured out of poverty, romantically seduced, or sold by their families.
Nefarious, Merchant of Souls, is a hard-hitting documentary that exposes the disturbing trends in modern sex slavery. From the very first scene, Nefarious ushers you into the nightmare of sex slavery that hundreds of thousands experience daily. You'll see where slaves are sold (often in developed, affluent countries), where they work, and where they are confined. You'll hear first-hand interviews with real victims and traffickers, along with expert analysis from international humanitarian leaders.
From initial recruitment to victim liberation—and everything in between—the previously veiled underworld of sex slavery is uncovered in the groundbreaking, tell-all Nefarious, Merchant of Souls.


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DreamFactory supports server-side scripting to quickly and easily customize almost all of the platform's REST API endpoints to include business logic on the server, such as field validation, workflow triggers, runtime calculations, and more. Developers can easily attach scripts to any existing API endpoint, for both pre- and post-processing of the request and response. You can also write your own custom REST APIs with server-side script services.
- 1 Supported Scripting Languages
- 2 Where Scripts Can Be Used
- 3 Resources Available To A Script
- 4 Stopping Script Execution
- 5 Halting Event Propagation
Supported Scripting Languages
DreamFactory scripting supports several modern scripting languages. To get a list of which ones are installed and setup on a particular instance use the following API...
{ "resource": [ { "name": "nodejs", "label": "Node.js", "description": "Server-side JavaScript handler using the Node.js engine.", "sandboxed": false }, { "name": "php", "label": "PHP", "description": "Script handler using native PHP.", "sandboxed": false }, { "name": "python", "label": "Python", "description": "Script handler using native Python.", "sandboxed": false }, { "name": "v8js", "label": "V8js", "description": "Server-side JavaScript handler using the V8js engine.", "sandboxed": true } ] }
Note: The sandbox setting means that the script execution is bound by memory and time and is not allowed access to other operating system functionalities outside of PHP's context. This is currently only the case for V8Js, therefore be aware that DreamFactory can not control what is done inside scripts using non-sandboxed languages on a server.
The following are typically supported on most installs...
Where Scripts Can Be Used
Server-side scripts can currently be used in two areas of a DreamFactory instance: events triggered by API calls and customized script services.
Resources Available To A Script
When a script is executed, DreamFactory passes in two very useful resources that allow each script to access many parts of the system including system states, configuration, and even a means to call other services or external APIs. They are the event resource and the platform resource.
Note: The term "resource" is used generically here, based on the scripting language used, the resource could either be an object (i.e. V8js or Node.js) or an array (i.e. PHP).
The Event Resource
The event resource contains the structured data about the event triggered (Event Scripting) or from the API service call (Script Services). As seen below, this includes things like the request and response information available to this "event".
Note: Determined by the type of event triggering the script, parts of this event resource are writable. Modifications to this resource while executing the script do not result in a change to that resource (i.e. request or response) in further internal handling of the API call, unless the event script is configured with the allow_event_modification setting to true, or it is the response on a script service. Prior to 2.1.2, the allow_event_modification was accomplished by setting a content_changed element in the request or response object to true.
The event resource has the following properties:
|A resource representing the inbound REST API call, i.e. the HTTP request.
|A resource representing the response to an inbound REST API call, i.e. the HTTP response.
|Any additional resource names typically represented as a replaceable part of the path, i.e. "table name" on a db/_table/{table_name} call.
Event Request
The "request" resource contains all the components of the original HTTP request. This resource is always available, and is writable during pre-process event scripting.
|The API version used for the request (i.e. 2.0).
|The HTTP method of the request (i.e. GET, POST, PUT).
|An object/array of query string parameters received with the request, indexed by the parameter name.
|An object/array of HTTP headers from the request, indexed by the lowercase header name.
|The body of the request in raw string format.
|The format type (i.e. "application/json") of the raw content of the request.
|The body (POST body) of the request, i.e. the content, converted to an internally usable object/array if possible.
Any allowed changes to this data will overwrite existing data in the request, before further listeners are called and/or the request is handled by the called service.
Event Response
The response resource contains the data being sent back to the client from the request.
Note: This resource is only available/relevant on post-process event and script service scripts.
|The HTTP status code of the response (i.e. 200, 404, 500, etc).
|An object/array of HTTP headers for the response back to the client.
|The body of the request as an object if the content_type is not set, or in raw string format.
|The content type (i.e. json) of the raw content of the request.
Just like request, any allowed changes to response will overwrite existing data in the response, before it is sent back to the caller.
The Platform Resource
This platform resource may be used to access configuration and system states, as well as, the REST API of your instance via inline calls. This makes internal requests to other services directly without requiring an HTTP call.
The platform resource has the following properties:
|An array/object that allows access to the instance's REST API.
|An array/object consisting of the current configuration of the instance.
|An array/object consisting of the current session information.
Platform API
The api resource contains methods for instance API access. This object contains a method for each type of REST verb.
|GET a resource
|POST a resource
|PUT a resource
|PATCH a resource
|DELETE a resource
They all accept the same arguments:
method( "service[/resource_path]"[, payload[, curl_options]] );
- method - Required. The method/verb listed above.
- service - Required. The service name (as used in API calls) or external URI.
- resource_path - Optional depending on your call. Resources of the service called.
- payload - Optional, but must contain a valid object for the language of the script.
- curl_options - Optional for external calls only.
Calling internally only requires the relative URL without the /api/v2/ portion:
// Retrieve all records from the 'Contacts' table in the 'db' database service platform.api.get( "db/_table/Contacts" );
You may also pass absolute URLs to these methods to retrieve external resources:
platform.api.get( "http://www.google.com" );
platform.api.post( "https://www.example.com/api/something_cool", {"cool":"very"} );
Adding headers or other cURL options to api calls
For example, to add headers:
var options = { "CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER": ["Content-type: application/json", "Some-Other-Header: blah"] }; result = platform.api.post("http://example.com/my_api", {"name":"test"}, options);
You can also add multiple cURL options like this.
var options = { "CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER": ["Content-type: application/json", "Some-Other-Header: blah"], "CURLOPT_SOMEOTHEROPTION": "someothervalue" }; result = platform.api.post("http://example.com/my_api", null, options);
Platform Config
The config object contains configuration settings for the instance.
| Configuration settings specific to DreamFactory.
( [version] => "2.1.0" [api_version] => "2.0" [always_wrap_resources] => true [resources_wrapper] => "resource" [storage_path] => "my/install/path/storage" ... )
Platform Session
The session resource contains information and states about the current session for the event.
|DreamFactory API key.
|Session token, i.e. JWT.
| User information derived from the supplied session token, i.e. JWT.
( [id] => 6 [display_name] => First Last [first_name] => First [last_name] => Last [email] => [email protected] [is_sys_admin] => 1 [last_login_date] => 2016-02-19 14:05:25 )
|App information derived from the supplied API key.
|Available lookups for the session.
Stopping Script Execution
Just like in normal code execution, execution of a script is stopped prematurely by two means, throwing an exception, or returning.
// Stop execution if verbs other than GET are used in Custom Scripting Service if (event.request.method !== "GET") { throw "Only HTTP GET is allowed on this endpoint."; // will result in a 500 back to client with the given message. } // Stop execution and return a specific status code if (event.resource !== "test") { event.response.status_code = 400; event.response.content = {"error": "Invalid resource requested."}; return; } // defaults to 200 status code event.response.content = {"test": "value"};
Halting Event Propagation
Event scripts can halt propagation to future listeners as well. Setting the event.stop_propagation property to true will halt propagation of the event immediately upon return from the script.


text:
- 【Safe & Durable Silica Gel】 The external of OxyLED M-01 plant grow strip light is made of FOOD-GRADE silica gel and completely encapsulating the circuit board inside, its unique hollow design can significantly enhance the diaphanous effect, improving lighting efficiency for your plants growing
- 【Peak Wavelength】 Each Oxyled M-01 plant grow light strip is equipped with 36 LED bulbs (9 blue, 27 red) and arranged by a certain proportion of blue: red = 1:3 which is ideal for the flowering of plants
- 【WATERPROOF & FIREPROOF】 IP67 water-resistant, proofed against splashes, showers, and sprays; UL94-V0 fireproof, innocuous and harmless, safeguarding you from fire hazard. It has longer service life than other plant growth lamps
- 【Low Energy Consumption】 Powered by AC charger, using energy-saving LED lamp beads, get greener than ever at only 24W of energy consumption. LED lifespan up to 30,000 hours
- 【Easy to Set Up】 3M adhesive tape mounts easily on any clean, smooth surface, suitable for any smooth, flat surface. You can also bind the light strip easily in any suitable place by using attached set of 10 cable ties
OxyGrow – Your greenhouse just got greener
Put summer in your basement and keep flowering through to February with the M-01 Hydrophonic Plant Grow Light Strip by OxyLED. With 36 LED lights (27 red, 9 blue), the light strip creates optimal conditions for your potted pals to continue thriving even when natural conditions don't offer enough natural light.
OxyLED is an efficient and effective solution for hydroponic gardens, which will save you hundreds in energy costs over the years, as the entire unit powers on only 24W.
How does it work?
OxyLED uses a combination of blue and red lights to emit specific wavelengths that stimulate plant growth.
– Red light activates plant hormones important in flowering and producing fruit
– Blue light aids chlorophyll and carotenoid production necessary for healthy leaves
A light for all seasons, the OxyLED M-01 was built to last, with a lifespan of over 30,000 hours and IP67 water resistant that keeps it safe from any unwilling splashes with the watering pot. The fitting is also works brilliantly in both high and low temperature environments, making it a great addition for sheds, porches, and balconies that can't get enough light. So no matter where you set down your roots, OxyLED will turn shade into sunshine leave your leafy friends looking their very best.
– LED quantity: 36pcs SMD2835
– LED color: red (660nm 27pcs), blue (460nm 9pcs)
– Power: 24W
– Lifespan: 30,000 hours
– Suggested height: 2ft ~ 3ft (distance from plants)
– Power consumption: 7.2W/h
– LED strip length: 0.6m x 3pcs
– Lamp bead spacing: 0.66in/16.7mm
– Waterproof level: IP67 water resistant
Package Contents
– 3 x Plant Grow Light Strip
– 10 x Cable Tie
– 1 x Power Adapter
– 1 x User Manual
– 1 x Warranty Card
…. Read More ….
Buy with confidence from Amazon


text:
Create your tailored
postgraduate guide now
To understand the modern world, one needs to understand Asia and the Pacific.
With Australia's economic, political and strategic future increasingly linked to the Asia-Pacific region, professionals across a range of sectors are seeking to upskill their vocational expertise on the languages, cultures, economies, histories, politics and societies of our neighbours.
The ANU College of Asia & the Pacific has the largest concentration of Asia-Pacific researchers and scholars outside of Asia. We teach the broadest range of Asia-Pacific languages, and are recognised as a world leader in teaching and research on the region.
The Master of Asian and Pacific Studies will suit graduates looking to follow a specific area of interest in the fields of History, Cultural Studies, Politics, Languages and Regional Studies, with a focus on Asia and the Pacific.
Students will gain expert knowledge in their area of specialisation, paving the way for meaningful engagement with the leaders and stakeholders of the region. Graduates of the program will join a network of alumni including diplomats, senior policy officers in domestic and international governments, non-government sector leaders, and journalists.
The Master of Asian and Pacific Studies (Advanced) will provide graduates with the regional grounding and research expertise required for leadership in the Asian Century.
In addition to the expert knowledge students will acquire in their area of specialisation, graduates of the advanced program will have proven skills in independent research for the purposes of further academic or professional research. The Advanced program is ideal for students looking to pursue PhD studies.
Whether you are at a beginner, intermediate or advanced level, you can develop your language skills by choosing one or more of the following languages
A Master of Asian and Pacific Studies will equip you with skills that employers rank highly in today's globalised world. Our graduates are found all over the world in exciting and challenging jobs across many fields including
Updated: 24 April, 2017/Responsible Officer: Dean, ANU College of Asia & the Pacific/Page Contact: CAP Web Team


text:
We had a wonderful time at the Grand Victorian Masquerade Ball last night, hosted by Circle City Aerodrome. In character as Madame Belle (proprietress of Belle's House, the last word in hospitality at the CCA), I was the mistress of ceremonies. And what a ball it was.
We had dignitaries, dancing, card tables, photo booths, and a face painter. And we had murder and mayhem as well!
Throughout the evening, I was—of course—the belle of the ball and the ho of the hoedown.


text:
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Comfortably reverse the signs of ageing and achieve a more youthful appearance without downtime. Effectively stimulates collagen production and improves your overall skin quality in areas that are most telling when it comes to age, such as the eyes, brow lines, cheeks and around the neck.
Please Note:
This is not a gift voucher and no item will be posted unless specifically requested.
Once purchased contact us on 015379222 or email email@example.com to arrange your booking, your order number is your booking reference.
You may also book the relevant treatment online or on our mobile app. Print your confirmation email or show it on your phone on the day of your appointment.


text: Birds were flying from continent to continent long before we were. They reached the coldest place on Earth, Antarctica, long before we did. They can survive in the hottest of deserts. Some can remain on the wing for years at a time. They can girdle the globe. Now, we have taken over the earth and the sea and the sky, but with skill and care and knowledge, we can ensure that there is still a place on Earth for birds in all their beauty and variety if we want to and surely, we should.Sir David Frederick Attenborough


text:
New site ready for use
Further to the previous post on this subject, the migration from Plone to WordPress continues apace: the new site is now available at http://ossg.bcs.org as you can see. Account details have been e-mailed to all registered users with active addresses and you should now be able to log on to comment and/or write posts. Please see the Editorial Policy document for contribution guidelines. Above all, if you have any difficulties or suggestions for improvement please contact the webmaster or discuss matters on the ossg-members mailing list.
As promised, the old site is available at http://hemswell.lincoln.ac.uk/oldossg/ for archival purposes. It will remain available for the forseeable future and you will be warned if and when it is deleted.
At present, the feature allowing new users to register themselves with the site and mailing lists is disabled, to allow a short period of time for existing users to recover their accounts. This feature will be re-enabled on Monday 10th July. Thankyou for your patience.
Finally, we hope the new site is useful and hope to see you all at one of the forthcoming OSSG events.


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By: Ellen Davis, Math, 6th, 7th & 8th
Every Thursday, 6th grade students meet in small teacher led groups to tackle challenging math problems. Currently, many of the students are looking at different methods for determining the winner of an election. They are exploring a number of questions including but not limited to: Should the winner be the person or option that receives more than 50% of the votes (a majority)? Would a plurality (the most votes even if not a majority of the votes) be more equitable? How does an electoral college work and what are the reasons it might be used? What are other methods of determining the winner of an election? Which method do I think is the best? Many of our students are very engaged in the current presidential primaries. Through this exploration students have the opportunity to see how math is integral to our system of government and the choices we make as voters.


text:
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A range of pens, perfect for personalising your ceramics and glass!
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After a fun-filled last week of term we celebrated by having a christmas party. The children took part in lots of party games, had some scrumptious party food and even had a surprise visit off Santa!
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text:
Plextor releases world's smallest DVD burnerBy Justin Mann
Plextor has been doing some work on revamping slim-line DVD burners, and has recently announced that they now have the smallest DVD writer on the market. Using a USB interface, it does have a fairly small profile and very low power demand, something good for a laptop and the bag you carry it in:
Plextor's PX-608CU powers itself from USB 2.0 and does not require any external power supply which usually takes additional space in the bag. The device measures by 137(W) x 143(D) x 16mm(H) and weighs about 250 grams, which is typical for devices of the kind. Nevertheless, the new PX-608CU comes with a rounded corner, which makes it look and feel a little smaller compared to rivals.
Not terribly impressive this late in the game, but interesting nevertheless. As far as laptop burners go it is fairly run of the mill in terms of performance, ranging from 4x to 8x burns on DVDs and up to 24x for CDs.


text:
A New Friend of Mine…Chris VanCleave
Hello Everyone,
A new Friend of mine Chris VanCleave, fellow WordPress Blogger, just let me know that June is National Rose Month. http://redneckrosarian.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/june-is-national-rose-month/ It just so happens that Keith and I went to a local rose garden and took some pictures. They were beautiful, all different colors and varieties, peach, yellow, pink and even white, I think. Some were just bushes and some were on trellises but they all were just beautiful and in full bloom.
I am not a rose person, I mean I love roses, they are beautiful, but I'm not allowed to play in the dirt. So I can't plant and grow them. Where I live is not conducive to planting anyway, so I just enjoy them when I go to the rose gardens. But Chris is a rose lover. You all should check out his site and see some of his beautiful roses that he and his wife grow together. He has over 65 varieties in his garden. That's just amazing to me. Kudos to Chris!
This is my little slice of Rose month. My son, Keith among the flowers. Have a great week, everyone!
~ Lori


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national / elections / politics Thursday May 23, 2019 22:18 by 1 of indy
These local elections on Fri 24th May are more important than ever. The reason is that up and down the country Fine Gael with help from Fianna Fail have allowed corporate vulture funds through various government breaks to them to buy up valuable tracts of land and to buy up thousands and thousands of apartments and homes. And the result is they are screwing people for rent. In this feature a case study for South Dublin of how they corporate takeover has occurred and driven prices sky high and priced out ordinary people from ever buying a house or apartment. Found out what is happening in your council area and how FG and FF councillors encourage this madness because it is happening in towns and cities all over the country.
national / elections / politics Wednesday February 24, 2016 18:26 by T
The election cycle has come around yet again it is time to take a look at some of the issues being discussed and more importantly those not discussed and have a quick look at the economy.
Related Links:
TTIP is a full frontal assault on democracy |
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Signed in New Zealand amid Mass Protests |
Co. Clare TTIP Free Zone! |
Over 2 million People sign European Citizens Initiative against EU-US TTIP trade deal |
Galway meeting highlights the insidious agenda of TTIP |
Lacking Trasparency: The Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership (TTIP) |
Wikileaks Publishes Secret Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) |
connolly group TTIP video |
Investor-State Attacks: Empowering Foreign Corporations to Bypass our Courts, Challenge Basic Protections |
Blog of ISDS Case Summaries |
Top 10 Most Pernicious Investor-State Dispute Settlement Lawsuits |
Sean Kelly (FG) MEP has betrayed his responsibility to defend the interests of the Irish people - Liadh Ní Riada MEP
dublin / elections / politics Saturday May 10, 2014 13:20 by 1 of Indymedia
The Euro and local council elections take place on Fri May 23rd and nationwide there are 11 MEPs to be elected to represent Ireland Euro elections will also be taking place across Europe for a grand total of 751 seats in the European Parliament. Regrettably the European Commission which is composed of 28 non-elected and appointed commissioners and is besieged by thousands of lobbying firms working for the private sector, is probably reckoned to have more power. Yet despite this Europe matters because at least 70% of our legislation comes from there and practically most of the regulation in a diverse range of areas originates from Europe and some of the more background regulation has its origins with corporate lobbyists with the aim of using heavy regulation to put smaller competitors out of businesses by greatly increasing the relative costs for smaller businesses. The main political parties of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael constantly tell us they are pro business and for jobs and the economy. In fact they are for big business, privatisation, outsourcing of jobs, lower wages, less social safety net and their support of big business and corporations constantly results in the suffocating of small business which are the very areas that lead to most employment.
Candidate Website Links:
http://nessachilders.ie/ |
http://www.bridsmith.net/ |
http://www.paulmurphymep.eu/ |
http://www.eamonryan.ie/ |
dublin / elections / politics Wednesday March 16, 2011 14:01 by Maire
Rosaleen McDonagh is contesting the Seanad Election in the Dublin University Constituency. She is a well known Traveller activist, feminist and writer.
Related Links:
national / elections / politics Thursday February 24, 2011 08:50 by T
Given it is just days away from the election and a new government, most likely to be led by Fine Gael, many are probably wondering what exactly is the current state of Ireland and what are the prospects for recovery. In short, things are bad and a recovery is very unlikely. There are also wider and bigger global issues and we are unprepared and should be doing something about it now.
Related Links: Committee of Public Accounts on Bank Bailout | Additional document list | IEA acknowledges Peak OilThe only hope is that we have is that there is a public awakening to try and understand what has happened, where we are and the future we are hurtling towards. Only then, is there any possibility of some kind of social revolution to enable us to have any chance of coping with the challenges and by our actions, hopefully we may even trigger an European wide social transformation. But frankly the prospects of this positive development happening are zilch.
When the global credit boom came to a halt and hit Ireland on that fateful day in Sept 2008, Brian Lenihan, at the behest of the bankers made a fatal mistake with the bank guarantee that ensured no (large) debtor would be left behind. It might have seemed like a good idea at the time, but it would only have worked if the global economy bounced back and it was clear it was not going to unless like many mainstream economists who propagate the dominant capitalist ideology of our time, they assumed it was just going to be another small recession in the usual business cycle. But anyone who had been following events without their ideological blinkers on, would have realized this was going to be of seismic proportions.
Fri 07 Aug, 21:39
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Below are my initial thoughts on this study: Salicylate Elimination Diets In Children: Is Food Restriction Supported by the Evidence? by Gray and Mehr et al. 2013. This study was published in the Medical Journal of Australia a couple of weeks ago by a group of Paediatric Immunologists. Their topic was the Salicylate Elimination Diet, (read official study summary and other comments here).
- I'd argue quite the opposite, the hardest part of switching to a low sals diet or any big dietary change is the first few weeks/months. If you're talking about 'harm' this is where you may find it as people do struggle with change. I know I did. However, after this initial adjustment period everything improves dramatically. Long term…The future is bright!
- Secondly, do they have any studies to refer to in order to back up this claim? The answer of course, is no and this very claim is just as scientifically unverifiable as they claim the regular prescription of the low sals diet is, as treatment, for the various presenting symptoms.
Is Lowering Other Food Chemicals Harmful?
"…insufficient to prove any risk associated with the diets… harm may occur when children and adolescents are placed on such restrictive diets."
So, let me get this right: Risk can't be proven, yet in the same breath, 'harm' is basically listed as a potential risk?
'Harm' 'may' occur at any point in time, to any cohort, sample or group of individuals, children or teenagers.
How many preschoolers, due to fussy appetites are walking around with undiagnosed nutritional deficiencies, (iron, Vitamin D being the most obvious). What about eating disorders (including anorexia, as the authors have specifically highlighted), they too are an unfortunate but common feature of teenage years in our society. We also know – from evidenced based studies – that they tend to have multi-factorial (often non-food related) causative factors.
Now, the authors do admit they have a sample bias and no control group and so one might perhaps expect a less dramatized conclusion than the one that, in spite of itself, stretches to predict 'harm.'
I do however agree with their final point:
"We would invite any proponents and prescribers of the diet to produce evidence of the efficacy and safety for the disorders."
As a Registered Nurse and mother of a food sensitive family who have been on a low salicylate diet for 2.5 years (and are the healthiest we have ever been), I would love to see a secure evidence base for the sole purpose that more may benefit from the dietary changes that have transformed the lives of both myself and my children.
Feel free to leave your own comments below, whether you agree or disagree 🙂


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Dettagli Prodotto
Replace a damaged or malfunctioning 2.4 GHz Core i5 logic board in your 2018 model 13" MacBook Pro with Retina Display.
8 GB or 16 GB of RAM is integrated in the logic board.
256 GB or 512 GB SSD Storage is integrated in the logic board.
The Touch ID sensor is included and is paired to the logic board. A logic board installed without the original, paired Touch ID sensor will function but Touch ID features will be disabled.
- MacBook Pro 13" Retina A1989 Mid 2018
Garanzia A Vita
|MacBook Pro 13" Touch Bar 2018


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Spicy, herby chutney complements the delicately seasoned vegetable samosas, a traditional Indian street food.
How to Make It
To prepare chutney, combine first 9 ingredients in a blender; process until smooth. Set aside.
To prepare samosas, combine potatoes, lentils, mint, curry powder, 1 teaspoon butter, 1/4 teaspoon salt, and cumin. Gently fold in peas.
Working with 1 egg roll wrapper at a time (cover remaining wrappers to prevent drying), cut down middle to form 2 long rectangles. Moisten edges of wrapper with egg. Spoon 1 tablespoon potato mixture near bottom edge of wrapper. Fold up from 1 corner to the opposite outer edge of the wrapper, making a triangle. Fold over to opposite side again as if folding up a flag. Repeat fold to opposite side to form a triangle. Repeat with remaining wrappers and filling.
Heat a large cast-iron skillet over medium-high heat. Coat pan with cooking spray. Lightly coat samosas with cooking spray. Add samosas to pan, and cook 1 minute on each side. Drain on paper towels. Serve with chutney.


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1999 Herman Skolnik Award: In Memoriam - Stuart M. Kaback
Dr. Kaback obtained his undergraduate and graduate education at Columbia University, receiving a Ph. D. in organic chemistry in 1960. He joined the Technical Information Division of Esso Research and Engineering Company at that time, and was engaged in Information Analysis at Esso/Exxon until he retired.
He specialized in patent information, and was a frequent speaker and writer in the field. He wrote a regular column on online patent information in World Patent Information from 1982-1995 and together with Edlyn Simmons completed the article on Patents (Literature) in the 4th Edition of the Kirk-Othmer Encyclopedia of Chemical Technology. He was the founding chair of the American Petroleum Institute's Patent Task Force, and served in that capacity from 1980-90. He has served in an advisory capacity for Derwent, Chemical Abstracts Service, and Questel.Orbit (and its predecessor companies). He was a member of Editorial Advisory Boards of the Journal of Chemical Information and Computer Sciences, CHEMTECH, World Patent Information, and Database. He has served the ACS Division of Chemical Information as Assistant Secretary, Acting Treasurer, Chemtech Representative, Membership Chair, and as a member of the Long Range Planning and Program Committees. He was a member of the ACS Board-Council Committee on Chemical Abstracts Service. He was also one of the founding members of the Patent Information Users Group (PIUG).
He received the 1999 Herman Skolnik Award from the ACS Division of Chemical Information for outstanding achievement in chemical information, in recognition of his leadership and contributions to patent information searching and chemical information searching in general.
Aside from his professional activities he was very active in Temple Beth-El of Cranford, N.J., serving as its President on two separate occasions, Chair of its Board of Education, and in a number of other capacities. His leisure time was devoted primarily to a very wide range of classical music. He participated in singing groups in his school days, and was a member of his temple choir.
He was married since 1955 to the former Marilyn Feldman. He is succeeded by his wife, a daughter, a son, and four grandchildren.


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https://www.visitpoland.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/visit_poland_wieliczka.jpg 667 1000 Annemarie Vanlangendonck https://www.visitpoland.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/logo-300x67.png Annemarie Vanlangendonck2019-06-06 19:23:042019-10-03 09:06:11Most Popular Museums in Poland
In the whole world there are plenty of fascinating and interesting museums. Everybody knows Luvr in Paris, MoMa in New York or National Gallery in London. But did you know that Poland has also some amazing ones? Thanks to the difficult history, talented artists and powerful kings, after many decades and centuries, you can now admire their work and legacy.
- The Museum of the Palace of King Jan III in Wilanów – if you are visiting Warsaw it is a great opportunity to visit this museum. It is not only a magnificent building with lots of sculptures and painting. It has a wonderful and big garden, which is an ideal spot for a long walk during the summer season. Every year almost 3 million people visit this museum!
- The Royal Łazienki Museum – its mesmerizing gardens have appeared in many books and novels. Thanks to its location in the Warsaw city center, locals come here often to relax after a long day in work. Museum is combined here with a lot of attractions, there are organized many concerts, exhibitions and meeting. You can also sail a real gondola on the pond in front of the Palace on the Island. For sport amateurs there is a stable where you can have a horse ride. Definitely a magical place!
- Auschwitz-Birkenau Museum in Oświęcim. This museum is well-known also abroad. It is a reminder of the horrible war experiences. To visit this museum you have to prepare yourself.It is not easy to be here but is worth it. It is a place which warns you, that people are capable of the worst in the name of an ideology.
- Wawel Royal Castle in Cracow – while visiting Cracow, this is 'a must". You won't find here giant gardens (like in Wilanów), but a chapel, courtyard and a cathedral which will take your breath away. The Cathedral is a very important place, because it is filled with priceless works of art, including tombstones of kings. An absolute masterpiece of Renaissance art is also the Sigismund Chapel. Entering the walled castle complex is a journey in time – you can feel the spirit of a really ancient age.
- The Cracow Saltworks Museum in Wieliczka is something you have probably never experienced. The Wieliczka Salt Mine was included in the UNESCO World Heritage List in 1978 as one of the first 12 objects in the world. The deepest corridor of the Wieliczka mine is located 327 meters underground, and the total length of all underground pavements reaches 300 kilometers. Visiting the Wieliczka mine, you can see not only pits but also real works of art, like salt sculptures or chapels. Fun fact – in the Chapel of Saint Kinga you can even get married.
As you can see, museum don't have to be boring and visited only in rainy days. They are fun, beautiful and perfect for families. You can enjoy yourself in their gardens or just stop by to slow down a bit and focus on the moment.


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5 Best AntiVirus for Android
Hack Labs Team successfully reviews 5 Best Free Antivirus for Android. Here is 5 Top AntiVirus for Android OS which can protection your phones or device:
1. AVG Free AntiVirus Mobile Android v2.8
AVG AntiVirus Android is The Best Free Mobile AntiVirus for Android todays. Keep your device safe with just one click by AVG Pro AntiVirus Android.
AVG AntiVirus Android is one of the best Anti Virus Mobile for Android in the world. AVG AntiVirus Android is really protect your mobile phones from virus, malware & exploits in real-time. AVG Free Anti Virus for Smartphone or Tablet can removes Spam SMS & Apps automatically. AVG Free Anti Virus Mobile for Android is simple to use, always up to date, and light on device resources and battery life.
With AVG Anti-Virus Pro for Android you'll receive effective, advert-free virus protection, as well as VIP tech support.
Let's!!! prevent your mobile phone with AVG Pro Mobile AntiVirus for Android OS before it was injected by virus, malware & exploits.
2. Lookout Mobile Security v6.2
Key features of Lookout Mobile Security:
- Anti-Virus + Firewall: Run a virus scan on your system to quickly find malicious files. Block scans and exploit attempts.
- Data Backup: Backup and access your data: pictures, contacts, SMS, music files, videos, and more from any web browser and restore them to a your device without any hassles.
- Missing Device: Locate your device remotely from any web browser. Set off a siren to help you find a lost device. If all else fails, delete your data remotely.
3. Antivirus Free by Creative Apps
This AntiVirus is created and developed by Creative Apps. This app will protect your Android devices from Malware, Spyware and Trojan attacks 24 hours a day.
Unlike two AntiVirus above (Lookout Mobile Security and AVG), this app comes with a simple interface and easy to use. It uses less than 0.1% of your battery.
4. Dr. Web AntiVirus Light v6.0
Dr. Web AntiVirus Light can protect your precious Android. It's simple, easy, and light in scanning. File monitor automatically scans applications being installed and all files written to the SD card. In addition, Dr. Web AntiVirus Light support languages like English, French, German, Japanese, Russian.
5. NetQin Free Antivirus Mobile v4.8 for Android 2.0
Remove Spyware and Viruses. Get Protection for your phones or device now. Your Android may not be safe. NetQin Antivirus FREE from NetQin (NQ) detects new applications installed on your system, and check with our cloud security database for known malicious apps. It uses minimum battery, and alerts you when virus, malware or spyware is detected.
Key features of NetQin Free Antivirus Mobile:
- Antivirus and real-time monitoring
- scan files and apps, Backup/restore
- free back your contacts online or your SD card, Anti-lost
- Locate and control your phone remotely, and Easy to recommend to your friends.


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Rolls-Royce Silver Cloud
An all white classic Rolls-Royce Silver Cloud with matching whitewall tyres. The Silver Cloud was made from the early 1950s until mid 1960s and referred to by many as 'the last real Rolls-Royce'. We have owned this car for many years first seeing it at Engelbert Humperdink's country mansion just outside of Leicester. Beautiful curved lines, long bonnet with a proud significant Rolls-Royce radiator grille topped by a standing Spirit of Ecstasy. Soft green Connolly leather, white carpet and particularly fine walnut woodwork.
Matching White Wedding Cars.
For the perfect complimentary car we have the White Baroness which is a magnificent seven seat Daimler Limousine. These cars make an ideal matching pair to get the bride to the church in the Rolls Royce and the Groom and family in the luxury of the Daimler.
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Tags: Rolls Royce


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Is it hard to find things to do in the Texas Hill Country in autumn? Absolutely not! In fact, Boerne has a great lineup of fall events to keep your family's calendar filled up and then some. The simple fact that the temperatures are moderate is cause for celebration, allowing for more time to be spent out and about as opposed to indoors trying to keep cool. The cooler air of autumn signifies a time of harvests, trips to local markets, crunching leaves, and soothing drinks. Plus, Boerne offers an excellent variety of events to help you enjoy this season to the fullest.
Boerne Does Fall First-Class With a Full Calendar of Fun
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Photo: Visit Boerne Via Cheryl Beck
Happening throughout the month of October, the Annual Pumpkin Patch is at a new and exciting location. Visit the pumpkin patch at 102 City Park Rd., home of The AgriCultural Museum of Boerne, where a picture-perfect autumn setting awaits your family. The Pumpkin Patch is open daily from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Admission is free. Complete with a variety of colorful pumpkins and antique tractors, there are photo-ops around every corner! This is one Hill Country pumpkin patch you won't want to miss!
Photo: Visit Boerne
Speaking of tractors, happening on Saturday, October 13, The AgriCultural Museum will also be hosting its annual KurbisFest ("pumpkin fest" in German) and antique tractor pull! So, not only will families get the opportunity to enjoy the local pumpkin patch, but they'll also get to witness the "Key to the Hills" Tractor Pull, sponsored by the Tri-County Tractor Pullers Association of Rio Medina. Roughly 50 Farmall and John Deere tractors will be participating in the event. While you're there, the family can take a guided tour of the museum, see what a real-life blacksmith does, and enter some pumpkin carving and decorating contests for prizes! Admission for this event is $5 for adults, free of charge for children. All entry fees collected will benefit the AgriCultural Museum.


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How much money does the NHS need and how much is it actually getting?
12th Jan 2018
The government is giving the NHS 1%. Under Labour it was 4% every year.
Spending on the NHS in England has increased in real terms by an average of around 1% a year since 2010. Since the NHS was established spending increases have averaged 4% per year.
The NHS needs 4 billion a year, but it's getting 1.6 billion and that figures is set to decrease.
Experts have previously said that NHS England needed £4 billion in 2018/19. In the Autumn budget 2017 the government announced that it will receive £1.6 billion, or £1.9 billion if capital spending is included.
The government has put 12 billion more into the NHS than in 2010 under Labour. The government has also promised another 6 billion for the NHS.
Spending on NHS England increased by £12.7 billion between 2009/10 and 2017/18, taking inflation into account. The government has said it will spend an additional £6.3 billion up to 2022/23, though that's in cash terms.
Claim 1 of 3
We've put more money than ever [into the NHS], 12 billion more than in 2010 when the last government were in charge. We promised another 6 billion.
Dominic Raab MP, 11 January 2018
"It needs, urgently, about 4 billion a year. It's getting 1.6 and that's set to go down."
Gina Miller, 11 January 2018
"I mean, they're giving the NHS just 1% every year. Under Labour it was 4% every year. It needs more money, not less money."
Dawn Butler MP, 11 January 2018
It's correct that spending on the NHS in England has increased by just over £12 billion since 2010, in fact almost £13 billion, and that a further £6 billion was promised at the end of last year.
Part of this £6 billion includes £1.6 billion in 2018/19. This has been welcomed by health experts, but will provide only around half of the £4 billion they have said is needed next year.
Since 2010 the NHS England budget has also increased by around 1% a year on average. Historically, this has been around 4% per year.
Spending on the NHS this coming year
In the Autumn budget last year the government announced that the NHS in England would receive an additional £1.6 billion in 2018/19 (in addition to spending already planned). Factoring in money also announced for more long-term investment in the infrastructure of the NHS this increases to £1.9 billion.
Experts at the King's Fund, Nuffield Trust and Health Foundation think tanks previously estimated that the NHS actually needed a spending increase of around £4 billion that year, based on how spending has increased previously in the NHS and how much its costs are considered likely to increase by.
Following the Autumn budget the King's Fund said that "While providing some welcome relief for the NHS, the extra funding pledged falls well short of the amount that we estimate is required… the NHS next year will not be able to maintain standards of care and meet rising demand for services." It also estimates that there will be a gap in the budget of around £20 billion by 2022/23.
Spending since 2010
In 2009/10 health spending in England by the outgoing Labour government was £112 billion (accounting for inflation since then). In 2017/18 the Conservative government plan to spend £124.7 billion. That's a difference of around £12.7 billion, according to figures from the King's Fund.
Spending is set to increase by a further £3.3 billion up to 2020/21 when it will reach £128 billion on current plans (again accounting for inflation).
Mr Raab told us that he was referring to the government's commitment at the Autumn budget to spend an additional £6.3 billion on the NHS in England up to 2022/23. These figures don't account for inflation and we don't know what will have happened to NHS spending overall by then.
The total budget for the Department of Health is set to increase by around 1.2% between 2009/10, the last year of the Labour government, and 2020/21. That's according to the King's Fund. Since the NHS was established the average increase in spending every year has been around 4%, though the King's Fund don't provide specific figures for the Labour years in this research.
When we asked them for more information about Ms Butler's claim the Labour party pointed us towards the same King's Fund analysis and separate figures on health spending across the whole of the UK. These show that between 1998/99 and 2010/11 the average spending increase was 6.4% per year and since 2010/11 the increase has averaged 1.4% each year.
Health is a devolved area of spending so the UK government is only directly responsible for exactly how money is spent on this in England. We're planning on writing more about this soon.
This fact check is part of a roundup of BBC Question Time: factchecked. Read the roundup.


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"My Best Friend's Wedding", starring Julia Roberts and co-starring Big Hair, Brick Phone and Lilac Satin.
I have always – ALWAYS – been a sucker for anything even vaguely romantic – and rom coms (romantic comedies, for the uninitiated) are my ultimate not-so-secret, not-feeling-even-mildly-guilty pleasure. God, I love them.
However, in recent years it has occurred to me that equality between men and women is something I really care about, dang it. I realised that I'm actually rather passionate about things like being paid the same amount for the same work – not more or less because of your sex. I realised that I'm rather passionate about people not being restricted or defined by society's ideas and traditions of sex, sexuality, gender, love, marriage, happiness and fulfillment. And then I remembered that I was also rather passionate about 90s rom coms… (more…)


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The nodes for the network graphics are Cause states, Observer states, Energy states, Mass states, Space states and Time states. To make this more relevant to business we can use the terms Goals, People, Functions, Data, Locations and Events. The edges that connect the nodes in all the networks are Cause rules, Observer rules, Energy rules, Mass rules, Space rules and Time rules. Nodes give the system its concepts, while edges give the system context. States provide extegrity (new term) while Rules provide integrity.
Each of the networks is composed of finite steps between the starting and terminal node called paths, the potential ways of following the rules to perform the steps are called the strategies, the actual strategy followed is called the tactics, the edges operations and the nodes are states .
Whether you are negotiating Goals, People, Functions, Data, Locations or Events, you have to create and observe the rules to maintain the integrity of the networks. Goals are connected by Rules, People are connected by Rules, Functions are connected by Rules, Data are connected by Rules, Locations are connected by Rules and Events are connected by Rules. Even Events (Time) is a network, because we are continuously referring to different clocks in different frames of reference.
All rules have the same characteristics:
We'll explore how we will model this for each of the Six Hats, Six Coats networks in a subsequent post.
Now we have the connecting tissue of our networks. Knowing this, we can embark on a course to model all six networks separately. Once that is complete we can work on integrating two, three, four, five and finally all six networks into a single set of conventions.
Related Posts:


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I am personally inclined towards behavioral finance, as it has continuously challenged the conventional financial theory of rational wealth maximizers.
The irrational financial decisions, emotions and psychology have taken over the field of finance.
The very famous Aswath Damodaran says, the equity risk premium is the key to investing & valuation.
Ben Graham told once Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you.
In the Taleb's language you buy – sell or you make omelette out of it depends upon your luck, randomness, Probability, Belief, conjecture, Theory, Forecast and Anecdote.
The most crucial investing question that I have noticed is: Do you know your time frame? Continue reading "Investing facts and Behavioral Finance"


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Now that you've had your promotional materials printed, it is time to start distributing them. There are many ways to do it, but it really depends on what you want to achieve. Here, we guide you through how you can give away your brochures and flyers and ensure you are hitting your target market.
Work with Complementary Businesses
This is a favourite and effective tactic to use. Trade your brochures with those from related businesses. For example, if you have a restaurant with a focus on healthy eating, you might want to leave brochures at a gym or yoga studio. This helps you to target consumers with relevant interests (in this example: health) and can lead to symbiotic relationships — they display your brochures, and you do the same for them.
Target as Much as Possible
The best thing about digital marketing is that it can target the right potential consumer. You can also do this too with brochures. Understand your customer and distribute brochures where you know they are likely to be. Do you sell clothes for trendy teens? Why not distribute brochures at college events or near a popular hang-out place
For Existing Customers
We all want repeat custom. Why not slip a flyer or brochure into the bag when you hand the purchase over to the customer? Alternatively, you can add it to the package when you send your online orders out for delivery. This can inspire customers to buy more, making it a worthwhile investment. If you want to provide more information to existing clients, our booklet printing services might come in handy.
Opening Day
Is it day one for your business? Grab this opportunity to distribute your flyers, booklets and other materials. You want people to understand what your business is about. Flyers and booklets are great ways to explain that.
Brochures and other printed media remain one of the best ways to get word about your business out to your clients. Beautifully-designed materials will entice customers in and can explain your products better than almost all other methods. Contact us to find out more about how we can help you create compelling printouts for your business.


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ill.i Optics: First look at the new collection with 4SEE Magazin
On Wednesday (23rd September) will.i.am introduced his new collection of ill.i Optics in the German magazine 4SEE. Will is on the cover of their latest Fall/Winter 2015 issue, which also comes with an interview and more pictures. He announces the … Continued