system
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human
CMV: Regardless of the outcome of the Pearl Harbor raid, or whether it happened all, it's almost certain that Japan would have eventually lost WWII

It doesn't really matter if Japan had sunk a couple aircraft carriers or the entire Pacific Fleet in the bombing, American dockyards would have easily recovered the losses in a few years. Simply declaring war on the US without bombing Pearl Harbor wouldn't help either, the superior USN would have crushed the IJN and they would have probably lost even faster. 

Directly attacking the Allies colonies in Southeast Asia isn't an option either, Japan needed the Phillipines as a foothold to project naval and air power into the south Pacific, of course Philippines is ruled by a US puppet government. Even if Japan somehow bypassed the Phillipines, it's extremely likely that the US will declare war on Japan for attacking UK and Allies. 

Simply not attacking any of the Allies isn't feasible either, because Japan was bogged down in China at that time, the war was depleting Japan's fuel stockpiles, UK and US were sending lots of aid to China, and US had already placed an embargo on Japan, preventing them from trading for oil and steel.  They had no hope of winning the war without the resources in southeast Asia, and the Chinese weren't going to sue for peace when they still had significant reserves of manpower and lend-lease equipment. 

Basically Japan was doomed when the invasion of China ground to a stalemate, while the Allies imposed sanctions which starved their industry of much-needed resources.
gpt
It all depends on how you view Japan's relationship with the other Axis powers.  They held on for a long time to their partnership but if they had been a little more proactive they could have struck a deal with the Americans allowing them to keep Manchuria in exchange for keeping tabs on Russia.  The attitude of the US after Japan's capitulation versus the allies with Germany and Italy is stark.  Japan was let very far off the hook for their role in the war considering they are the only nation to have attacked US territory plus all the other shit they engaged in.  

I've never understand why, when they lost several large islands, they didn't make this kind of deal.  The US would easily trade a strong Japan for a weak Nationalist China.

This would have been a victory for Japan who didn't see German ambition as essential to their own plans.