system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
ELI5: How does the Federal Reserve figure out how much money to print/mint each year?
gpt
Minor quibble, for clarification only: the Fed doesn't produce coinage or currency. The US Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing, respectively, do that. But the Fed is the only entity that can place orders for either, so really, the question is still well-put.

To answer, the Fed estimates the need for new coinage/currency the same way a business estimates the demand for its products: it generates forecasts for *this* year based on actual figures from *previous* years. Throw in a few tweaks, here and there, for specific, identifiable events that are likely to throw things off a bit (e.g., the introduction of a new bill, etc.), and Bob's your uncle.