system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
How likely is it that the Yellowstone Volcano erupts?

Considering it has been overdue for almost one-hundred thousand years. Considering that it has the potential to kick us back into the stone ages.

*Edit for clarification: Within 10 years, within 100 years, and within 1000 years.*
gpt
Well, we definitely aren't overdue by 100,000 years. Or at all. I've never figured out where that factoid originated from.

There was an eruption ~640,000 years ago, ~1,200,000 years ago, and ~2,100,000 years ago.
The gives us two recurrence intervals, one of 560,000 years and another of 900,000 years. So an "average" recurrence interval of 730,000 years, which we won't reach for another 90,000 years to come.

Of course, with so few data points, that doesn't mean much. Considering the two recurrence intervals vary by 1:1.6, it's probably a safe bet that there is a lot of variability in the system (which shouldn't be surprising). We don't really know how likely Yellowstone is to erupt on any given year (or millenia); but most studies are quite optimistic that the chance is insignificant for the near-term geologic future (say, <1000 years), based on the size and changes within the magma chamber and estimates of the composition of the magma (which controls how explosive it can be).

Lastly, Yellowstone erupts far more often than once every ~~730,000 years. There have been dozens of smaller eruptions you don't hear much about. One of those is far more likely to occur than a super-eruption, and could still be a disaster that causes loss of life, but would only be on the scale of more normal small to large volcanic eruptions.