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human
CMV: Trump would not have stopped a Ukraine invasion

There is a lot of I think misplaced US political talk surrounding the recent world events. While I do think Biden's response has been rather weak,  it's really not clear to me how any US president could have stopped Putin from invading short of committing troops. But that hasn't stopped many people on both sides comparing the presidents anyway, with many asserting that this wouldn't have happened if Trump was president, or even saying that the reason the invasion happened now and not before is proof that Trump was harder on Russia. I disagree.

First, from my perspective Trump is very soft on Putin and clearly admires him very much. Trump's actions on Russia have been appeasement not toughness. This is just based on his own words and actions. I would go so far as to say that not only would Trump allow the invasion to happen with little to no sanctions, he might even agree with it. This isn't a hypothetical, this is essentially what he has been saying about the current situation now. This is based on his recent comments about Putin and his failure to actually condemn Putin's actions. How can you stop an invasion if you won't even clearly condemn it? He calls the invasion an "atrocity" but solely blames Biden and NATO for the invasion instead of Putin, parroting Putin's justifications. Hardly a strong condemnation. In terms of past Russian aggression Trump has recognized the illegitimate puppet states. Trump has also heavily criticized NATO and threatened to pull out... again appeasing Putin's wishes. Trump even suggested invasion could be a good solution to immigration. Trump's supporters like MGT have even suggested invasion or violence to address our other domestic issues. To me, these quotes indicate that while Trump is willing to speak against the situation he isn't actually condemning Putin directly. It's like saying "that rape was a tragedy but she was asking for it."

What would change my view is examples of Trump strongly condemning Putin with regards to similar actions. Or evidence of Trump not appeasing Putin. Or a compelling argument why Biden did something to provoke the attack that Trump would not have done.

What would not change my view... the idea that Trump *could* "nuke" Moscow... I know what he could do I'm interested in what he *would* do. I also don't think that evidence of "appeasement preventing the war" would change my view because my view is mainly predicated on the claim that Trump is "tougher" on Putin than Biden, and appeasement is not being tougher.

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EDIT: I have changed my view slightly. Some commenters have given a variation of the idea that Putin may have considered NATO weaker or less of a threat under the Trump administration and therefore would not have felt the need to invade or takeover Ukraine. I gave a delta to the commenter that fleshed out this concept the best and changed my mind. I'm not claiming this is definitely the reason for the invasion, nor do I think anybody but Putin is to blame for the invasion, but it's a good theory for why the invasion may have happened now and not before. I'm not sure we know for sure what Putin is thinking. I'm still interested in more discussion.
gpt
(I say this as a person who hates Trump and everything he and his supporters stand for)
Putin probably wouldn't have invaded if Trump was president because he didn't see Trump as a threat. Trump didn't and wouldn't have continued getting close to Ukraine. Trump would have probably gotten in the way of Ukraine joining the EU and would have prevented them from joint NATO. If anything Trump's presidency delayed the inivitable.