system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
CMV: The probability of a successful penalty kick is too high

During this World Cup (if not all football matches) the issue of refereeing and judgment calls was enormous. In most situations, a goal is a rare and difficult achievement. In a penalty shot, however, the shooter has a tremendous advantage over the goalkeeper. Therefore, drawing a penalty shot in the box is clearly the best option in terms of chance of success of getting a goal. This statistical imbalance leads to high stakes and controversial umpiring, flopping, and skews the results of matches. A foul in basketball is not usually a big deal, as the odds of getting a basket are pretty high anyway. In soccer, since the odds of scoring a goal even under ideal conditions are low, the price of a penalty is extreme and frequently changes the outcome of games. This imbalance is also obvious in penalty kicks tiebreaker scenarios. 

The obvious solution is that the shot should be significantly further away from the goal than is currently the case. Nothing else would need to change to correct the statistical imbalance and reduce the consequences of calling a foul in the box. The player should be far enough away from the goal that the goalkeeper should be able to stop all but the most extraordinary shots, as in the game itself when play is underway normally. 

The current system introduces too much serendipity to the outcome. A quick whistle on a nervous ref, a momentary or slight touch by a defender that is exaggerated by an attacking player - its all relatively random. 

If the distance from the goal were set such that the odds of a successful shot were reduced by 75%, given the relative improbability of a goal in active play, the deterrent effect on defenders would still be sufficient to stop gross fouls in the box. Games would be decided in a way more consistent with how the game is played 99% of the time (involving running, passing, and shooting). In short, I would like to see penalties significantly harder to turn into goals.
gpt
The low probability of goal is the very reason why penalties exist the way the do. If you remove them as a clear opportunity to score, you are basically giving defenders free range to faul attackers as much as possible. The better system would have 100 fail proof system to call a penalty from diving, but thats sadly still not possible even with video refereeing.