system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
[Marvel Comics] Since the Mad Thinker always loses, I have to ask: is he just bullshitting for the sake of having a gimmick when he says he uses probability calculations to predict the future of the crimes he commits? Or is he just statistically very unlucky/bad at maths/both?

Even though I personally feel that he's a D-list relic from the silver age, I still feel that surely he should have an advantage and at least win once  if he always mathamatically predict future outcomes of his plans like he claims to do. 

**has he ever actually won. Is his gimmick bullshit,  or is he just incompetent?**

For example: When Spider-Man or another hero shows up at his base the Mad Thinker usually says something like "I'm prepared to fight you,  I knew here was a 70% chance that you'd show up" but he would then get beaten by the hero anyway.
gpt
He is very good at calculating probabilities. BUT! He also has a MUCH higher opinion of his own capabilities than is true, so all of his math is biased and wrong when it comes down to the part of the plan which is "get attacked by superheroes." He can plan the rest of his heist wonderfully, but because he's so full of himself, he calculates as if he's totally going to beat up Captain America solo, because that's totally a thing he can do, right?   


If he was just making plans for other villains to follow, he'd be fantastic. But his ego is too large to accept just being a support villain.