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[Hobbit/LOTR] How would things have played out if the orcs never showed up at the BotFA?

(spoilers ahead)


Let's say that for one reason or another the orcs do not show up to Erebor after Smaug was killed and instead of the Battle of the Five Armies we get the Battle of the Three Armies(dwarfs,men,elves)?

Everything else is the same, the Elves want their heirlooms, the men of lake town want their "share" of the treasure(I do have to agree with Thorin that he shouldn't have to hold to his word to repay the people of lake town after all he says "what choice did we have but to barter our birthrights for our freedom?")

And the dwarven army shows up all the same, except there is no threat of orcs to force everyone to come together.

What happens? Do they fight or come to terms? If they do fight who wins, by how much and at what cost? 

Can the elves take on the dwarfs? It was kind of hard to tell who had the greater numbers since the dwarfs are naturally smaller and seemed to have tighter formations than the elves. We also see the "soldiers" of laketown taken aback when they were faced with an actual army of dwarfs, they were confident when it was them and an army of golden elves against 13 dwarfs but once they thought they might have to fight rather than just get in on that group experience/free loot they got behind the elves.



Bonus question: The Heirlooms Thranduil spoke of, was it just the necklace we see Thorin pick up or was it also the pile of jewels he threw the necklace on? And as Thranduil says "The Heirlooms of my people are not lightly forsaken." implying that at one point there were in his possession so why did the dwarfs have them? Not sure if I am right but I figured they were at one point his wifes, while being nice they weren't inherently special and she had given them to the dwarfs as a gift, but once she died and there was nothing left of her he wanted them back to remember her by.
gpt
The soldiers of laketown probably didn't have any weaponry that could penetrate Dwarven armor at all, they would have been a non-issue in the battle.

The elves were gracefully assembled on the field of battle, not hidden behind fortifications or atop mountains with bows where they would be most effective.  They were there as a show of force to try to intimidate Thorin's party into surrendering, not deployed in a sensible military formation.

Dain's forces were allowed to walk right up to the Elves, further eliminating the problem of their lack of mobility compared to the Elves and Men. 

Finally, the Wood Elf king was a bit of a coward.

Result?  It would be a slaughter.  The Elves would retreat, most of the men would die (either in direct combat, or starving to death in the winter afterwards) - and the Dwarves would keep the mountain.