system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
Recession in 5 years?

I've seen a lot of articles and discussions from economists, business leaders, and bankers about the chances of a recession sometime in the next year. They've ranged from little chance, to 50% or higher. If there's anything that they agree on though, it would seem to be that there's no agreement if there'll be a recession in the next year.

What about in the next five years? From the state of the rest of the global economy, to those wondering if the unemployment rate is (strangely enough) too low, to waning CEO confidence, to how long the current expansion has been going, as well as other fluctuating recession signals, I'm guessing that if you extend the time horizon out to five years instead of just one, that the chances for a recession jump a whole lot more.

Would that be a fair assessment?
gpt
No one can give an exact date. There isn't any statistical regularity in booms or busts. We can look at indicators - the Fed monitors those to try to keep the economy stabilized - but just because indicators are present doesn't mean a recession will undoubtedly happen within x amount of time. It means there is a higher chance statistically based on what we know has happened. But otherwise, it's hard to say.