system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
CMV: Without foreign military intervention, the Hong Kong protests will fail

**BETTER TITLE: The Hong Kong protests are doomed to fail no matter what.**

The recent security laws set out by China targeting Hong Kong's unrest have earned the ire of protesters and the international community. Noble gestures against a tyrannical, bloodthirsty regime, but unless the West is willing to move past mere economic sanctions and surround Hong Kong with warships, they will be allowing China to enact another Tiananmen Square "incident". The Hong Kong crisis can only be solved through substantial military action - but who would want to do that?

The Communist Party of China will not accede to much more of the protesters' demands. Many mainlanders view the Hong Kong protesters as violent rioters and terrorists, and negotiating with them will be seen as the Party going back on its own nationalistic principles for a united China. Xi Jinping is no Gorbachev, and internal reform on this issue seems extremely unlikely. "One country, two systems" was already a massive concession for Beijing, let alone independence. 

Hong Kong lacks a standing army, substantial natural resources, or geographic distance from mainland China (one advantage Taiwan has) to give the PLA any second thoughts of occupation.

The protesters seem unlikely to give up either, due to the Party's stubbornness and the unanimously favorable coverage of them by Western media. Any imprisonments or forced disappearances will be widely publicized unless the Communist Party forces their way into the city and imposes a media blackout. Even if the protesters cease their violence, the PLA will likely institute a violent crackdown anyway.

It seems the only alternative for Hong Kong to retain democracy until 2047 is for more powerful military actors to get involved, e.g. the United States, **which seems unlikely** given the promises set out in the Sino-British Joint Declaration and Hong Kong's current lack of strategic value to other countries outside of diplomatic virtue-signaling. The protests were allowed to happen in order for the Communist Party to be able to portray the protesters as violent secessionists. 

In the end, there will be no peaceful solution to the Hong Kong problem. China or the West will inevitably have to send in troops to quell the issue, and one of those possibilities is much more likely than the other. Essentially, in the absence of a new world war, Hong Kong is doomed. CMV.

EDIT: Guys, I'm not necessarily saying we *should* intervene militarily - I'm just saying that Hong Kong has no chance without it.

EDIT 2: What will change my view is someone showing me any potential for peaceful reform. Y'all are attacking the wrong thing - and in fairness I should have made a better title lol

EDIT 3: View has been changed in that military intervention would not be an exception to Hong Kong's helplessness. But so far no one has really come up with an actual solution...
gpt
Who'd be stupid enough to start a war with china? Cause foreign military intervention would be more than enough for a declaration of war.

And the result would be that china would have legal grounds for military actions as well. Right now, HK is protected by an invisible legal, economical and political wall. If you were to place military forces there, they would replace these invisible walls with a military wall, that china could crush much easier.