system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
CMV: A martian colony is all but guaranteed to rebel to attempt to become its own civilization.

If a human organization ever colonizes mars, over time this colony is all but guaranteed to rebel. The vast distances and time involved with travelling to Mars and the material conditions that the people who live there will face will lead, inevitably, to martian culture diverging from its source culture. As this group becomes increasingly alienated from the culture that rules it, there will be some sort of rebellion, whether it is violent or not, that will result in the colony trying to gain autonomy.

I think this is the most likely consequence of the physical realities of a martian colonization because of the history of colonization on earth. When "The New World" was colonized it didn't take long before the gap of the Atlantic Ocean began to alienate colonial powers from their colony. History will repeat itself with a martian colony. 

Caveats:

1. This view is about a human colony.
2. This view is not reliant on the rebellion succeeding, just that a rebellion happens at all.

To change my view, you'll need to convince me that it more likely that a martian colony will stay true to its founding civilization despite what I wrote above. Providing an edge case where they wouldn't rebel wouldn't be enough.
gpt
So, this really hinges on what you mean by "over time."  If the colony is ever able to get to the point of true self-sufficiency, then that might be an option, but for the foreseeable future, the rebellion would mean certain death.  Comparisons to Earth colonization don't necessarily apply, as the New World didn't have anywhere near the colonization struggles that Mars will:

- The colony would be fully dependent on Earth for basic resources.  It won't have the ability to manufacture its own atmosphere all that effectively, nor its own food, nor its own equipment to manage basic life support operations.  It will require periodic resupplies from Earth - get uppity and those resupplies will stop.

- Even when those problems are solved, there is no guarantee that the colony will be able to self-populate.  We've done experiments in zero gravity and it turns out that fetal gestation _needs_ gravity to work properly.  Now, does Mars have enough gravity for this to work?  We honestly don't know yet, but there is every possibility that it doesn't (or doesn't have enough for healthy fetal development).  Rebel and everyone is dead in a generation.

- Even if we solve the reproduction problem, it will be generations before it has the population necessary to build a suitable defense force required to fight off forces from Earth.  It takes a ton of extra people and resources to build defensive forces and structures, and the colony will be far too focused on survival to do that.  A few ships full of space marines will get the colony back in line quickly.

So, for the first few hundred years, rebellion is not in the cards. After that, who knows - society may look so different at that point that rebellion isn't even necessary.