system
Given the following post, respond as if you're commenting on Reddit:
human
CMV: Brittney Griner trade was a bad deal


Edit: Already changed my mind in part. I can understand why it could be viewed as a good trade. I can also understand why it can be seen as a bad trade. It all depends on how dangerous you think Viktor Bout really is. If you think he's useless because everyone knows his face and his network is dead, then it was a good deal. If you think Putin still trusts him and his KGB/GRU ties would make it very easy for him to alter his identity and get back in the game, then it was a terrible trade. I choose to ride the fence at this point because both view points are highly speculative and rely on the future to prove the past. Only time will tell the truth. Please read the whole post. Both of my views are explained in detail below.

The trade made for Brittney Griner was a bad trade. The long term consequences of releasing a known arms trafficking terrorist in trade for a basketball player doesn't seem to balance the proverbial scales of justice. How many people are going to die at the hands of weapons provided by deals "the merchant of death" will facilitate? Countless Men women and children all around the world are in the ground because of Victor Bout. It would be incredibly naive to think his release will not result in countless more lives lost. 

On top of the loss of life, the financial consequences of the man-hours and resources invested in his capture I'm sure are in the millions of dollars. Now he's free to be hunted and captured again, with the expenditure of millions more, plus the lives that will be risked in this endeavor.

Finally, she did break the law. I've seen a lot of "wrongfully detained" statements in the headlines and elsewhere, and they are factually inaccurate. Many people think 9 years is excessive for marijuana cartridges. I agree. However Russian law is not based on American opinion. Also, there are plenty of people in prison in the US for similar offences. And that's where they'll stay because it's a matter of American law. They will serve their sentences.

As far as trades go, some guys are just off the table in my book. There's a reason Putin want Viktor Bout back in Russia. He is in the middle of a war after all. Who better to get back on your team than your most prolific and successful arms dealer?

How was it a good trade?

Edit: After much deliberation I have to say I see it a bit differently. I think the logical talking points all still have merit, but don't really seal the deal once you realize Viktor Bout has been neutralized by his fame. Griner broke Russian law, but she also got screwed because she is American. It was a really stupid decision, but I'd say 10 months in Russian prison is time served. Viktor Bout WAS the merchant of death and deserves to serve the full 25, but not at the expense of someone who should be home in America. It took some convincing, but where my mind really changed... Bout is possibly not dangerous anymore. In fact, I would hate to be in his position. He's in Putin's pocket as a talking head for life, at best. At worst, he's a talking head for a few weeks, then he gets disappeared to be waterboarded. Putin can never really trust him, so he can never really use him for anything of value. If the man is of no tactical or operational value, then it is of little consequence to trade him back to Russia.
All that being said...Brittney Griner's celebrity got her bumped to the front of a line that plenty of other people have been in for a lot longer. I do not mean Whelan or any other specific individual. I mean there are lots of Americans that should be home that have been gone a long time, and they all matter. Putin made this deal, Biden just accepted. It's a  crafty deal and it's working perfectly. Prisoner trades are rare, and good ones even more so. It's all about creating a scenario that makes a rift among the people in an already fractured society...that's us. 

One final thought.
If Viktor Bout was as valuable as people seem to think, he would have been successfully traded for any number of other prisoners years ago. Unless of course he was more valuable/dangerous than anyone Russia had to trade in return. It depends on how you look at it. Just something else to think about. Can't automatically discredit anyone's opinion on this this one. We don't get presidential briefings.

Thanks to everyone for participating.
gpt
>It would be incredibly naive to think his release will not result in countless more lives lost.

I don't agree.

Viktor Bout was in an overseas prison for ten years. His crime networks have largely been either dismantled or taken over by other people. Many of his contacts are imprisoned or dead. His name and face are internationally known and it's impossible for him to fly under the radar. Technology has changed the nature of organized crime and he's behind the curve. And he's 55 years old now.

Most likely, this guy is just going to retire and live a quiet life at this point.

Putin is basically getting the same thing out of the deal as Biden is: bragging rights. "Those assholes don't get to hold *our* people."