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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84515172014-11-13T12:00:35.499-08:00MaxedOutMamaMaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.comBlogger4162125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-52944793449243369542014-10-26T14:41:00.001-07:002014-10-26T14:41:11.019-07:00I've Got Flu, Not EbolaI'm sick as a dog, though. Sickest I've ever been with flu. It's going to turn out to be a double viral infection. Also, I should rest more.

I'll post in a bit when I recover a bit. In the meantime, it appears as if the CDC nurse who is outraged that anyone would dare to quarantine her is part of the new Center for Disastrous Complacency. Are these people nuts?

This woman is actually having hysterics in print because when the non-contact temp scanners used in the new screening protocol registered a high temp, they followed their own protocol? She's nuts, right? Or perhaps she's a smoker and is having the most publicly neurotic nicotine fit of the year? WTF? Ask for a nicotine patch, you bimbo!

Well, Christie and Cuomo did the only rational thing, thus earning the nearly 100% support of the doctors and nurses who actually treat people, but the outrage and disdain of the Centers for Disastrous Complacency and all the Kool Kidz.

The Center for Disastrous Complacency has now lost its street cred among the working medical crew. I miss the days when that outfit was about controlling infectious disease, but it's clearly not about that any more and hasn't been for some time.

In the meantime, the danger of this thing getting out and about in the US increases week by week. Call your Congressman and ask for a policy of an automatic three-week supervised quarantine for all travelers originating from countries with sustained lines of transmission, with antibody testing on the 20th non-symptomatic day, followed up by further detention if one is positive. And some will be. The reason TPTB don't want to do this is that they expect sustained lines of transmission in the US. Well guess what, our current course is how to get there. These loons must be stopped.

If we get sustained lines of transmission in the US, other countries need to shut us down. We do not want to go down in history this way.

Ebola will spread MUCH faster in the US than it will in Africa, because we have such broad access to medical facilities. There are non-detected infectious people spreading it through the non-Ebola treatment wards there. The same will happen here.

The only way to eventually control the situation here will be to have widespread testing. We don't currently have the ability to do it, so quarantine is the only option.

"Direct Contact" doesn't mean what the public thinks it does. Remember this in 2011? That's direct contact for Ebola:

 An investigator swabbed high-traffic areas, including countertops and the handles on the self-serve milk dispensers. All had received a grade of “A”—the highest rating given by inspectors with the City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Specimens were sent to Philip Tierno, director of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at New York University Langone Medical Center. About half were contaminated with “fecal organisms.”
...
Samples taken from milk containers in three separate Starbucks stores tested positive for traces of Enterococcus, fecal strep, E. coli, and Klebsiella.
The early symptoms of Ebola are not easily distinguished from other viral illnesses, and milder cases will never be picked up at all. It's likely that low levels of the virus will be shed from tears (runny eyes), transferred to people's hands, and passed on that way.

Well, I would love to hear the conversation between Christie, Cuomo and our Dear Leader. One suspects it might get a bit "Sicilian". MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-24316045076135190352014-10-12T16:59:00.000-07:002014-10-12T16:59:02.913-07:00I've About Had It With Race MongersThis country is going to go hard right so fast it ain't funny.

Yesterday Jesse and the Duncan family gave a press conference saying Duncan didn't get the right treatment for racial reasons. They wanted him flown to either Emory or Nebraska.

Well guess what - Duncan got all sorts of measures you and yours ain't gonna get, because CDC just changed their guidelines to "avoid AGPs". This means that if you get sick, you aren't going to get ventilation, intubation, or kidney dialysis unless you get very, very lucky. CDC also recommends keeping labs to the absolute minimum. You'll be lucky to even get an IV. It's more likely that when you get really sick they'll tie you to the bed and roll you into the dying ward. They may give you some liquid morphine if you are able to swallow.

I told my family a while ago to prepare for home care if this thing takes off, and that's where we are. We're working on a possible protocol at the clinic. If this gets out, hospitals are unlikely to be a good bet. It's been very clear that Ebola virus has been spreading through the clinics in the affected countries, and it will here too. That Dr. Sacra was working in a maternity ward totally separated from any Ebola cases. And he was an experienced missionary doctor. He still got infected. Which matches perfectly with our experience here and in Spain. You need special wards and special equipment to safely treat these people, and we don't have them in any quantity.

Why are we letting people come in from affected countries? I have no idea. The doctors I know are appalled and amazed at what's happening.

What are the chances that it gets out? Well, unless the affected countries are locked down quickly, very good!

Here's where the open southern border is a killer. If you don't let people in through the air, they can just fly to some South American country and come in over the southern border. If they do, before long it's in South America. What are our chances if this gets out dwn there? Very poor.

Anyway, preparing for rolling quarantines is a good idea. I noticed the local supermarket started being unable to keep the bleach stocked last week. I'm sure it is health care workers and their families buying it. So get yours while you still can.

The problem with containment is that there are carriers. If you get a small viral dose, you may not get overtly ill. But you can still be infectious with intimate contact.

So all bets are off. Bullets and bleach and gloves. That's the ticket. If you think I'm joking, you're wrong.

The reason I've been talking to my family about this already is that a few weeks ago, the clinic started getting calls from the African immigrant families who are patients. They all had relatives who were visiting and just wanted to come in for tests. Unspecified. Needless to say, we did not take them.

The only way you can get tested for Ebola exposure is to go to a hospital, but if you are not symptomatic you are not going to get tested. We've referred several regular patients who believed they might have been exposed, but they aren't getting tested. It's probable that we already have four or five carriers in the country. God help us if one of them tries to make a living as a prostitute.

Bullets, bleach, gloves, masks, chastity and prayer. That's the ticket.

I am bitter, because I think there is a good chance I will get killed by the whacky sort of wishful thinking that has governed the decision making in this country for some time. I was making huge progress with what I was doing. I'm not going to quit, because the clinics have to stay open, but it's not a good bet.

We saved two absolutely terminal patients this last year, and dramatically improved medical status of many more using this method. So I'm not going to quit. But I sure will die pissed as hell if I get killed before I get a chance to formalize this and dump it out there.

If you know a doctor, start being nice. REALLY NICE. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-13734670493252430972014-10-01T06:09:00.000-07:002014-10-01T06:09:41.393-07:00So, October Data Begins Okay, on the last post someone asked me about recession odds. First, I wasn't looking at a 15-20% chance of recession next year. I was seeing a 15-20% chance of AVOIDING recession next year.

The earliest time when I could meaningfully update that forecast would be late in October, as we got a read on the rolling impact of price changes and attempts to adapt. Well, it is October. As I get 'em I will try to post 'em.

The first read is CMI covering September. Published yesterday, it showed a hard fall in credit indicators for manufacturing, with the weakness concentrated in the unfavorable factors. This is the one I have been watching most closely, because it leads other indicators by several months. I expected it, it is not dire, and we are not yet in the realm of spiraling negative correlations, but it is certainly not encouraging. Some of the words used in the narrative were "collapse", "not a small reversal of fortune", "almost shocking", and "intense concern".

Services didn't improve either, but the problem is much milder. Is it an adjustment? I don't know and I don't think anyone can tell right now. It's very possible that over the next few months this could clear through and growth could continue on a somewhat lower trajectory.

So far this has been pretty classic, with credit standards loosening as everyone attempts to keep the wheels of commerce greased. The sole very definite thing one can say about yesterday's CMI (I'm not sure if we are allowed to link it any more), is that the negatives are harsh enough that credit issuance is going to have to tighten. From there, it's anyone's guess.

The standard PMIs and so forth won't tell me much until about December. They are later in the sequence.

We do have some good things which may help to offset the difficulties of the last year. We also have some bad stuff. The fall in oil prices helps, food prices are still a strong negative, but that may be starting to fall out, rents are WAY too high (very intractable), forget the housing market, strong dollar is not a good thing for manufacturers, but strong dollar does attract some refuge money.

Ebola? Not a help. The CDC issued a guidance to funeral homes in the US, which made my heart stop. I feel no confidence there.There will be multiple arrivals in the US, and this first one was not handled in a way to generate confidence.

Europe looks to be in real trouble. The weaker Euro can help only over months, and Germany's Mittelstand is apparently now walking through mud. But the weaker Euro imposes costs on US manufacturers. As of August, the durables report showed a roughly balanced situation. But the dollar is too strong and the international situation too difficult for this to continue.

Transportation (ATA truck tonnage and rail) have been showing strength. The weakness is all in consumer finances. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-43790599287653409142014-09-26T07:23:00.000-07:002014-09-26T07:23:33.765-07:00Why I Laugh When I Read BloombergOr, for that matter, when I read the FOMC.

Fresh from this morning's GDP release, here are two tables looking at real Food at Home & GDP changes:

The above is the rolling six month change. Broad orange line is real spending on food at home. Generally, this is either in line with population increase or above. In times when it is above, the economy is doing well. We have had a problem since 2012, which is why the Fed is trying to shove the economic train down the tracks.

The correlation becomes clearer when you look at the rolling 12 month changes:

As you can see, a startling divergence between reported GDP and an increasingly hungry population has emerged. For more than a year, we have spent most of the time sticking below the recession-inducing level of shrinking food purchases per capita.

If you will go back to the first graph, you can see that in mid 2013 we were climbing out and then we took a hard fall the last two quarters.

This will either reverse or we will land in recession. It also has a hell of a lot to do with what happened in Ferguson this past summer.

I think the fall in energy prices plus lower utility spending this summer may have given us enough to stagger through the winter without falling out, but I await some more data. And if it is a very bad winter, it won't be enough. We are still on very thin ice.

Note that the policy of importing large numbers of immigrants in order to deflate wages when the population as a whole is getting hungrier is a recipe for placing ruling heads on pikes. Historically, this has always produced the same result.

As for the Fed, if they truly intend to increase interest rates significantly, it will be a unique action. "Unique" is the politest term I can use. Generally, you do not want to increase interest rates in a depression, which at least 40% of the population is now experiencing.

I apologize for not blogging. I am extremely busy. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-80841951166279782322014-08-01T07:11:00.001-07:002014-08-01T07:26:11.150-07:00Employment Report, InterestingIn most respects this is a good report. Again, the two-month tally of jobs gained has a strong correspondence between the Household survey and the Establishment survey, which should raise confidence in the results.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%, but this was due to increased participation, with the number of persons coming back into the workforce higher by 141 thousand. So the Household survey shows 131,000 new jobs, but 197,000 more unemployed persons, with the not-in-labor force tally dropping by 119,000. This usually indicates a stronger labor environment.

My attention was caught by the rise in the unemployment rate for women. The rate for adult men did not change at 5.7%, but it rose from 5.3% to 5.7% for adult women. Checking A-10, which gives the age breakdown, one sees that it is mostly in the 55 and over women. For that cohort, unemployment over the year increased over the year (4.2% -> 4.6%) and over the month (4.1% -> 4.6%).

Usually such a change is due to weak household finances, but I checked the geezer table (A-6) to be sure, and indeed it is not in the 65 and over crowd.So I think this is reflective mostly of tight household cash for a cohort of low-to-moderate income households.

The Establishment survey shows that the relative weakness in job gains this month compared to last month is in services. At 140K that is low, and lower than last July. It was widespread except for government, which has racked up increases in June and July. But I think this makes sense, given the strong services hiring in preceding months, and is not an indicator of problems. Goods-producing employment was reported as being very strong at 58K.

So I think the picture is pretty consistent. The question is whether US households can maintain final demand. Cooler summer weather in summer regions should be helping household finances, but of course it also raises concerns about what the winter will be like!

In most respects the current reports are coming in very consistently, with just two outliers. Chicago PMI showed a sudden drop in which I do not quite believe, and petroleum demand seems to be too low for the other reports. I can possibly argue the distillate figures as being attributable to lower utility demand and increased rail freight, which is exceedingly real. Yet the gas doesn't match the jobs either.

Rail has been, as always, extremely indicative of the movements in the overall economy this year, so I am watching rail for signs that would indicate the next slowdown. B2B credit has been showing increased signs of money shortages along with an increased rate of economic activity, so now it is just a question if we can consolidate our finances in time to ride through what looks likely to be another bad winter. July B2B looked better than June.

Small Business (NFIB) shows that there are real inflationary pressures in the economy, with hiring desired but apparently being unaffordable for too many small businesses. I am waiting for the next NFIB report to see what it all means - it is one of the large survey samples so it should tell the tale.. Prices for small businesses have risen sharply against flat plans, so the money crunch is real, and compensation costs are rising over planned. The June NFIB report and the June CMI agreed. Improvement in July CMI published yesterday may auger improvement in the July NFIB.

There's a Main Street crunch which means that costs that should be trending down over the next six months may not. Feed prices should be falling and therefore consumers should be getting assistance, but it looks like everyone is trying to make up lost ground.

So I am still at the 15%-20% chance of escaping recession next year, and biting my nails over the suspense!

PS: Update to Depressing Graph:

It is absolutely the case that persons may not be able to afford to work. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-24165723790779982542014-07-28T10:51:00.003-07:002014-07-28T10:51:58.530-07:00The Depressing PostI've made several attempts at this, but they are all so depressing that I end up wandering off with a headache. So now I'm just going to dump it.

A) You may or may not have noted the Yellen (Sweet Monetary Manna Mama, aka SMMM)/Bullard-Fisher contretemps (Axis of Purported Liquidity Rationalization, aka APLR).

SMMM claims that theoretical unemployment rate masks an underlying labor slack that is very destructive to the economy, and thus rate increases will be deferred. APLR claims that conditions are such that the Fed has met its goals and must proceed quickly to raise rates while they still can.

Who's right? First, I think the Fed really had a meeting and drew lots to distribute the Inflation Hawk suit. They're worried enough about that 4.5 T on the books that this time there were two short straws. Thus the flight of APLR falcons. We may all pause to admire their arabesques through the skies of NYC as they attempt to bring down the Black Ben Helicopters. But don't pause for too long, because it's all a play done to convince CYNK-buying financial types that WE ARE ON THIS THING WE HAVE IT UNDER CONTROL DO NOT WORRY about inflation.

Fisher may be taking his role a bit too seriously, because he mentioned the unmentionable in his July 16th speech - tailing off on reinvestment of that 4.5T. Right now they are reinvesting principal and interest proceeds, which far exceeds the theoretical QE that they are tailing off. So until they all start talking about letting that portfolio run off, they are not serious about liquidity constraints. It's just a fireworks display.

But why are they willing to do make fools of themselves in public? They have two huge problems. They don't know how to manage either, much less the two together.

Problem 1

This is the population-adjusted core employment graph. It's the number of the employed among the 25-54s divided by the civilian free-roaming 25-54s population. It is clear we DO have labor slack. Note that there is a considerable degree of part-time employment in there.

Problem 2 is, yea verily, like unto it, an unlovely thing cursed of G_d and man.

This is the ratio of trade receivables (cash coming in) of non-financial corporates divided by total liabilities (what they owe) of non-financial corporates. I have helpfully added the Fed Funds rate indexed on the right. These figures come from the Flow of Funds report.

In short, the Fed response has caused the acceleration of debt-loading of corporates, to the point that they are very susceptible to any increase in interest rates. Since the end of the last recession US corporates have added about 2.4 Trillion in corporate bond debt and over 2 Trillion in credit market debt.

Households have lightened up a bit, but not nearly enough. This is the equivalent graph for Households & Non-profits:

So it is clear that our reckless spending is not going to bail the corporations out, no matter how sapphire the screens get.

The implications are that households and corporations are both extremely negatively sensitive to interest rate increases. They are both extremely negatively sensitive to tax increases. They are extremely negatively sensitive to cuts in government funding.

Now note the long time period these graphs cover. Much has been made of the post WWII expansion, but the population and the business population then had relatively high cash flows in relation to liabilities, which implied that they were extremely favorably responsive to both tax rate cuts (it was a high tax environment) and interest rate cuts.

There was a huge recession in the 50s - one of the most severe ever - and when Eisenhower was building those roads he was funding expansion. When Kennedy showed up, his tax cuts had an impressive pay back.

But now we really don't have much room for tax cuts. We don't have much room for ANYTHING.

All of the financial machinations of the Fed have really done very little to change the long term trajectory of the US economy, which in fact they conceded already. Have you looked at their long term growth forecasts lately? This is their March projection, and here is their June projection. Compare to their June 2013 projection.

So the reason for the Fed-and-Booty Play being enacted in the skies over NYC is that they are trying to talk the markets into anticipating better rates, so that they have the room to raise them without shocking the real economy. I don't think it's going to happen, given the regime in DC.

Absorb this, and then we can go onto the ACA/economic weather forecast thing. You folks may have stronger constitutions, but there's only so much misery I can handle at one time.MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-493483074559161972014-07-19T10:00:00.002-07:002014-07-19T10:00:25.920-07:00Materials and StrengthsLike probably just about everyone else, I have been appalled by the latest news. It seems that most everywhere one looks, new conflicts and new refusals to deal with them are popping up even while our pretend solutions for previous problems are wearing very thin.

I mean, it's a damnably depressing day when one's reaction to Israel going into the Gaza strip is "Finally!"

I will get back to posting, but first, something that's the opposite of depressing.

It's supposed to go into production soon, and this 3D printer can print carbon-fiber on a matrix.

This is causing me intense positive emotions, and I am going to enjoy just thinking about the possibilities for a few days.

Surely US education is all wrong? We are wasting tremendous sums of money educating a lot of people in skills we don't need, when the basic education to work with such tech is really almost absent. There can never have been a time when a basic technical education can provide any individual with such huge opportunities?

If you have kids, getting them into this sort of thing very early - late elementary school to junior high - would be a great investment.

 MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-62689125400518181322014-07-07T06:07:00.003-07:002014-07-07T06:07:29.382-07:00PS: Full-time Jobs LevelThis depresses me, and hey, it's Monday, so I just have to share. This is the LEVEL of full-time jobs, long view, seasonally adjusted:

Short view:

Yes, it has recently fallen, but if you look at the little sawtoothed formations that have shown up each year at this time post the GR, that is the effect of education jobs plus SA. Our economy is still top-heavy to government and education, and when those campuses shut down for the summer it looms up in the stats.

So I can't say whether the recent trend to add full-time jobs is still intact or not. It requires a few months.

In service economies, full-time jobs drop off hard after recessions and only recover years later. Only in manufacturing economies do you see the quick fall and quick rebound.

Next, ACA and employment.MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-59235919162028617632014-07-06T11:36:00.001-07:002014-07-06T11:36:46.759-07:00Employment - What Does It Really Say? First, I think that the employment report was so-so. Not great and not terrible. Not a promise of endless prosperity, and not a harbinger of doom.

The claims that the number of jobs are very favorable economic omens generate skepticism. The details of the report make it look like marginal job creation. Because of the end of school, these may be part-time jobs that really are not substitutions for full-time jobs - seasonal adjustment is very tricky in June.

But even if that is true, this sort of thing is just BS, cubed:

Job growth blew past expectations and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since before the financial crisis peaked six years ago, creating a firm foundation for a stronger U.S. economic expansion.
It really should ping everyone's nonsense meter, too, because this shortly follows:

The 1.39 million increase in employment over the past six months is the biggest over a similar period since early 2006.
What was happening in 2006? We were slipping into an industrial recession, which was consequently followed by the end of the financial cycle in 2007. We all know the rest of the story. . If we had not been in the middle of a large credit expansion in 2006, with PCE being increasingly fueled by funny money borrowing, we would have seen recession much earlier - although of course it would have been much milder.

It's better to take honest recessions as they come rather than trying to go postal, monetarily speaking. But the BIS just tried to explain all that, and word has it that Krugman is still frothing at the mouth and leaping at the windows, so perhaps I should drop that topic for this post.

The problem is that job creation, as is also true for asset valuation, does not serve as a good predictor for economic expansion over the next year. There's usually a late spike in employment figures - it's not even a good six month predictor.

Now one indicator that was favorable until June was the growth of full-time jobs. Unfortunately that did reverse in June, but it may return again in the fall.

This is YoY percent change in three employment indicators - all, full-time, and part-time. It's a bit busy, so:

This is just all and full-time - the green line is all. But you can't see much detail, so:

Between the two you can get a sense of what's what. In earlier times, the US was a highly industrial economy, and employment was more predictive although the changes were sharper. Nowadays, we are a service-heavy economy, and services don't respond to output as much as consumer spending.

If you will refer to the long series and the short series, you can see how absolutely odd the employment shift looked in 2006 - but that's because we didn't need to work. We could all just borrow more money on our houses. So it took a long time to sag out, although doom was clear in 2005.

We do not have the same opportunity this time.

Other things are apparent. There is usually a spike in full-time employment and employment right before the trend shifts. There is often a difference in the initial shift - full-time employment falls whereas that green line (all) hangs in there a bit. I believe that is due to better uptake of part-time jobs rather than better creation of part-time jobs. I do watch for that pattern a bit, although I basically ignore most employment stats when figuring trends.

There is one employment stat I have found predictive - the YoY change in covered jobs from the initial claims database. This one, in a service economy, does seem to have some predictive value. It at least tells you when to get nervous when the rest of it looks a bit dispirited:

Note that in a manufacturing economy, it doesn't. If you look at the short version so you can see more detail:

You can see that it does seem a bit predictive of when the trend is ending and can generally be used to give about a year's warning. Again, this is PERCENT CHANGE YOY, not simple levels.

However I am a bit skeptical of that indicator right now because ACA should be playing a part, and I am not sure how much of a part. The earlier trend in this number you see before downturns is not causative - it's a result of the factors causing the slackening of growth. So my reasoning right now is that this may be showing the result of ACA, and should be less reliable this time.ACA should distort this UP, so it may be more predictive!

What is strongly predictive? Causative factors, such as percent change in real personal disposable income, PCE (we generally consume less if we don't have money), and gross private domestic investment. There are two types of slumps - business-led and consumer-led. Once one half of the slump really gets going it generally will draw in the other.

Now, should I do this? On July 4th weekend? Well, I'm going to, because I have a busy week ahead and I probably won't get to it otherwise, but I'm sorry.

I know this is busy, but basically when these all start to correlate, ya gotta problem. We've had this problem for over a year. GPDI joined the party last quarter.

The reason why we had low inflation was basically that we at a level of economic activity associated with recession. It's one of those economic factors that gets you out of recession, or prevents you from really falling into it, because it increases real disposable personal income. Note that a lot of the spikiness in real disposable personal income has been due to tax changes - timing of dividends and payouts, plus FICA. But the FICA effect has fallen out. Now it's just going to be whatever's going on in the economy - and the employment report did not support any theory that we are all suddenly going to be earning more in a real sense.

GPDI is on the right side of the graph and it's just percent change. It's naturally pretty spiky. Still, aside from fracking, it's hard to figure out how many companies are going to be spending more. Profits aren't good, the money really isn't circulating on the consumer side, export orders are a bit light in many industries, and the business climate can best be described as BOHICA.

I know we are not in an active recession now (in which a majority of these factors knot up around each other and start pulling each other down), because if we were freight would show it, and it doesn't (it did show the decline in the first quarter and then the resurgence). Q1 was just the combination of bad factors in a structurally weak economy. The inventory cycle rolled through, and we got a couple of better months.

But ACA has got to be an additional negative correlating factor, because ACA affects most people who got insurance through their employer, and the changes now afoot pretty much require individuals to pay more for less. This means that statistical real disposable personal income is significantly overstated, and that we are heading into a sustained Keynesian spending tunnel.

The green line (GDPDI) is going to come back up. But I don't expect it to come up that far.

The bottom line is that this expansion is getting old, and without a real surge in income, it sags out and then collapses:

The reason you could have such a big hit in the first quarter was just that growth is minimal, so we are always kind of rotating around the axis of recession.MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-85353007323634063362014-07-04T06:43:00.001-07:002014-07-04T06:43:27.040-07:00Happy Independence Day!!!!The significance is that this is the day that we officially got the right to address our own problems.

We got a shot at it. That's all, and it's a wonderful thing! There isn't much better in life.

I hope you all enjoy the day. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-87180718526541463892014-07-03T06:22:00.001-07:002014-07-03T06:22:34.324-07:00Not Bad - Update TomorrowWhat's nice about today's employment report is that the Apr-June gains reported in the Household Survey started to mesh with the gains reported in the Establishment Survey.

I will expand tomorrow, but look at the Household survey. Unemployment rates dropped sharply for adult women, for those with just a high school education, and for those with some college but no degree. Unemployment rose a tad for those with a college degree or better.

Unemployment dropped sharply for blacks - thank heaven!!! That rate has been far too high for far too long. Overall a lot of that has been due to a younger population, but enough's enough. ...

Part-time employment rose by 275K compared to an overall monthly gain of 407K.

We have finally escaped the rule of 58, with the emp/pop ratio coming in at 59.0. Finally!!!!

MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-63316676872581432052014-06-30T20:00:00.001-07:002014-06-30T20:00:14.482-07:00BIS: Wouldja stop with the QE edibles, already? This is the 84th Annual Report. Page link:

 A new policy compass is needed to help the global economy step out of the shadow of the Great Financial Crisis. This will involve adjustments to the current policy mix and to policy frameworks with the aim of restoring sustainable and balanced economic growth.

 The global economy has shown encouraging signs over the past year but it has not shaken off its post-crisis malaise (Chapter III). Despite an aggressive and broad-based search for yield, with volatility and credit spreads sinking towards historical lows (Chapter II), and unusually accommodative monetary conditions (Chapter V), investment remains weak. Debt, both private and public, continues to rise while productivity growth has extended further its long-term downward trend (Chapters III and IV). There is even talk of secular stagnation. Some banks have rebuilt capital and adjusted their business models, while others have more work to do (Chapter VI).

  To return to sustainable and balanced growth, policies need to go beyond their traditional focus on the business cycle and take a longer-term perspective - one in which the financial cycle takes centre stage (Chapter I). They need to address head-on the structural deficiencies and resource misallocations masked by strong financial booms and revealed only in the subsequent busts. The only source of lasting prosperity is a stronger supply side. It is essential to move away from debt as the main engine of growth.
By "financial cycle" they mean debt cycle. This is the table of contents. When you read headings such as Global financial markets under the spell of monetary policy, you sense skepticism.

When you start reading, you realize they are throwing down the gauntlet:

 Financial cycles differ from business cycles. They encapsulate the self- reinforcing interactions between perceptions of value and risk, risk-taking and financing constraints which translate into financial booms and busts. They tend to be much longer than business cycles, and are best measured by a combination of credit aggregates and property prices. Output and financial variables can move in different directions for long periods of time, but the link tends to re-establish itself with a vengeance when financial booms turn into busts.
In other words, if you're not fixing Main Street, you're not fixing Wall Street if the cause of Main Street's problems was originally the financial cycle rather than the business cycle.

While there is no consensus definition of the financial cycle, the broad concept encapsulates joint fluctuations in a wide set of financial variables including both quantities and prices. BIS research suggests that credit aggregates, as a proxy for leverage, and property prices, as a measure of available collateral, play a particularly important role in this regard. Rapid increases in credit, particularly mortgage credit, drive up property prices, which in turn increase collateral values and thus the amount of credit the private sector can obtain. It is this mutually reinforcing interaction between financing constraints and perceptions of value and risks that has historically caused the most serious macroeconomic dislocations.
I would recommend reading at least this section. There's a lot of detail in it, and one of the central implications is that easy monetary policy in large countries has created a new set of correlations which are likely to be even more independent of central bank policy. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-84060213543373731892014-06-30T07:54:00.001-07:002014-06-30T07:54:25.862-07:00PendingsOnce when one cuts through all the shouting, the upshot is that Pending Home Sales remain significantly below last year's levels. On an NSA basis, -6.9%, with all regions clocking in negatively. The Northeast and South have relatively small declines at -2% and -4%. The Midwest and West are a little more decided on the matter, coming in at -8.4% and -14.3%.

So the upshot is still that we cannot look to home sales to carry the recovery forward into 2015.

Construction takes a while to peak and fade, so 2015 is the danger point.

Hobby Lobby/Conestoga decision is out, holding that closely held corporations do have religious protection under RFRA It seems to be about what I expected - a narrow ruling. The fun is going to be in the concurrences and dissents.

Perhaps the next Obama legislative initiative will be to mandate that anybody above a certain net worth must buy a car? In that case, and in that case only, the Hobby Lobby decision might have a national impact. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-81556220987985437862014-06-26T08:02:00.001-07:002014-06-26T08:02:21.106-07:00BofA Economists Smoke Or Eat Really Good WeedUnfortunately, the result appears to be somewhat Maureen Dowd-like confusion rather than cosmic clarity.

Exhibit 1:
The weekly petroleum update through March. Remember that really bad winter we had? This should have vastly increased the demand for heating oil (distillate), NG and propane. But look at the Products Supplied, and see the YTD drop for propane, the almost flat distillate (2.9% YTD, +0.6% last four weeks), and the huge drop in propane supplied for the last four weeks.

You know what that means? Consumers ran out of money, and so did a lot of businesses, so they turned the thermostats WAY down in just about unison. There was a corresponding drop in late-season deliveries in the affected areas. I know because I was so concerned I called some suppliers.

This meant that consumer spending in the second quarter would be affected. People who owed money would have to recover and pay off that bill, and those who didn't but had still turned down the thermostat would be socking money away for the next potential winter disaster. Nothing induces spending caution like having to live in a house at 58 degrees for six weeks when it is very cold outside. Rising food costs would reinforce the caution.

Exhibit 2:
Today's Personal Income and Outlays report.Many of those who do not inhabit the BofA Colorado economic prediction center have realized that Q2 is about over. While unquestionably economic activity rebounded, it really did so in March. Since, it appears that consumers have pulled back a bit, probably because they are doing so while they still can.

So today's real consumer spending report covers the first two months of the second quarter, and the so-far figures are -0.2 April and -0.1 May. This compares to Q1 revised of -0.3 Jan, + 0.3 Feb and +0.8 March.

Call me a troglodyte unenlightened slide-rule bearing primitive non-enlightened economic life form, but those figures make sense given the history, so I don't expect massive upward revisions in real PCE for this quarter.

PCE accounts for over 2/3rds of GDP, so no matter how ebullient the rest of the economy is, it seems unlikely that Q2 annualized can come out over 2.6-2.8% at this point.

Exhibit 3:
See, when you don't inhabit the Economic Weed Dome in CO, you naturally go looking for confirmation of your assumptions. So what would be an indication that consumers outran their cash flow due to excessive basic costs in Q1, and will have to recover in Q2? Heh! Credit card debt. We can find that in H8.

Note that this is seasonally adjusted, all commercial banks. That sudden "hockey stick" formation begins 3/26 and ends 6/11.Call me a crazy sober person, but the very strong correspondence with the sudden separation of demand and supply for winter fuel makes me suspect causation.

Call me a weed-edibles deficient economist, but that says to me that consumers are still struggling to comp, and that we have further consumer caution ahead.

Now admittedly I have never eaten a hash brownie in my life, and thus can't really be in tune with up-and-coming economic thinking. But all my experience tells me that consumers are going to be getting those CC bills, and that they will have to recover over the summer. Their ability to fully do so seems somewhat questionable, especially since post-ACA, many of them are paying sharply higher copays and medical costs, with higher medical deductibles. This cuts into other spending, and it is in no way confined to the relatively small number of individuals who in fact have ACA policies.

So, marijuana chocolate aside, it looks like the rest of the year will be constrained on the consumer side. A lot depends on the weather, because utility bills in the southern regions are the big bank account drainer for the rest of the country that was not so winter-struck, and thus a correlating drive.

This leads me to a 75-80% certainty of consumer-led recession beginning in Q2 2015, becoming blatant at the end of Q3 2015. If we had a light winter next year maybe not - maybe the extra would produce a spending rebound in Q2 2015.

The Fed did not get it last year. They are moving counter-cyclically again, but I really don't know what they have left to shoot with. It's very hard to correct a consumer-led downturn from basically broken finances. That takes fiscal policy, not monetary policy. It's likely that the Fed would only make things worse if they tried to strongly ramp up the QE.

MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-77457609880162771672014-06-25T14:21:00.002-07:002014-06-25T14:21:50.848-07:00That Incredible RecoveryReal GDP rolling annual percent change:

As you can see, we just can't get out of the recession zone in any convincing manner. So while we may not be in a recession, we remain so close that it does feel recessionary.
:

MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-10616998887583926142014-06-25T06:53:00.002-07:002014-06-25T06:53:09.935-07:00-2.9%, AnnualizedI was expecting something pretty bad after the last quarterly services survey, but not quite this bad.

The real source of the sudden downward revision is ACA, which sharply cut healthcare spending, and is still cutting healthcare spending. More on that later, but let's just say the earlier figures were strongly based on the idea that Americans have money to spend on health care when they don't even have money to spend on food. As a fantasy artifact, it was worthy of Walt Disney.

Somewhat transient negatives were a truly awful winter and the need to pull down inventories. Those effects have passed out of the economy, but the income effect for many households probably hasn't.

Permanent factors remain - the rise in taxes on investment (hiking capital gains tax is remarkably counterproductive), a generally anti-business environment, and the fact, as so eloquently stated by Yulva in the comments on the last post:

Most people cannot afford a home even if you gave it to them for free…
It's incomes, stupid. It's cash flow. Real personal incomes ex current transfer benefits grew less than 30 billion from the previous quarter. Real disposable personal incomes (includes government benefits, subtracts taxes) grew about 43 billion. That's aggregate, so the reality is that higher needs expenses really cut into effective discretionary incomes last quarter.

Neither corporate profits nor Gross Private Domestic Investment show a strong economy. We are not really in a recession, but we are in a structurally VERY slow growth economy. From the quarter one year ago, corporate profits after taxes and when including inventory and capital consumption dropped 5.9%.  Cash flow with inventory valuation adjustments fell 6.1% over four quarters.

GDI was approximately the same at -2.6%.

I will post more later, but I am not sure when due to a pretty tight schedule.
 MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-78430275371896650712014-06-23T09:26:00.001-07:002014-06-23T09:26:53.933-07:00The Volcano of Recession Is RumblingThe last strong leg holding us out of a decline is autos. It's not clear to me how long that can stand, esp. given the administration's fixation on honeybees, dreamers and increasing consumer and business power costs.

There is only one chart you really need to look at to understand why the ground seems to be quivering. I did not make it.

Here, from our dear NAR is a graph of May's existing home sales YoY broken out by sales price:

Ah! The economic weather report rears its ugly head once again. It only rains and snows on the less well-off.

Now compare this to the CW rhetoric:

“While the housing market has improved dramatically overall compared to where it was a couple of years ago, the recent recovery has been a little more choppy,” Chief Executive Officer Ara Hovnanian said during an earnings conference call on June 4.

 Household formation will be the primary driver of long-term housing demand, he said and “the creation of well-paying jobs will go a long way” toward boosting the market. “Given the low levels of total U.S. housing starts, we remain convinced that we are still in the early stages of the housing industry recovery,” Hovnanian said.
Well, it appears that starter homes ain't exactly where the market is, right?

In other news, the Clintons aren't really well off! Fortunately, oil and gas prices are rising nicely, which should help to stimulate a few more sales in that 1 mil plus price range.

Existing home sales are down 8.2% YoY for May if you look at the raw numbers. You can get all the NAR stats here.

The economy is not in a recession now, but it's losing steam rapidly, and unless the administration's initiative to protect honeybees somehow bears strong economic fruit, next year is highly problematic. If real wages aren't rising, and if aggregate hours worked aren't rising, the only thing we can count on to spur spending is SS & Disability. Those cash flows get sapped quite quickly by inflation.

Rail data for the first quarter showed a strong contraction, which we will get confirmed in the next GDP report. It's something like an annualized -1.8%. But rail data then picked up strongly, and now shows a much, much healthier picture. Both Mexican and Canadian data show the continuing difficulties for NA as a whole, so I am not expecting honeybee miracles.

Some might claim that trying to ban pesticides when food prices are this high might be self-defeating, but hey, give the dream a chance. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-44443416252614564332014-01-30T07:17:00.004-08:002014-01-30T07:18:38.651-08:00No Surprises There, But An Interesting StoryI refer, of course, to Q4 GDP. This is the first release and there will be revisions.

There are several interesting things about this, but the takeaway is real disposable personal income, which explains the subdued inflation. If you refer to Table 7, you'll see that 2013 racked up an astounding 0.7% increase in real disposable personal income. In total. Of course that's due to tax changes, and also to the drawing-forward of dividends and investment proceeds in Q4 of 2012 in order to evade the 2013 tax increase.

But still. ... FICA increases of course hit the average wage earner the hardest. Final sales of domestic product increased 1.7%, and final sales to domestic purchasers increased 1.5% for 2013. This is probably a better measure of economic activity than fficial 2013 GDP increase (1.9%) is

There are some other interesting aspects of this release, such as residential fixed investment (see Table 3) which fell 12.7 billion in the fourth quarter. In fact, even with the addition of the "intellectual property products" to GPDI, we still only picked up 22.2 billion in Q4. Fixed investment, which excludes inventory builds but now includes software, R&D and the creation of sculptures from dung by highly enterprising community-funded artists, only increased by 5.6 billion. Of that, intellectual property products accounted for 5 billion. You may perhaps be relieved to know that the mission-essential investment in Duck Dynasty episodes and dung sculptures only accounted for 0.1 billion of that, with software and R&D having a much more significant contribution. But still, I would cautiously comment that since this category was a 2013 invention, in effect we had no increase in fixed investment in Q4.

Personal income is not quite as bad as it seems, because the investment payout pop in Q4 2012 had such strong influence. If you will refer to Table 10, you'll see that real disposable personal income was 11,743 billion in Q4 2012, and then fell to 11,502 billion in Q1 2013. After that it rose for two quarters quite strongly to return to 11,704 in Q3, but in Q4 it only increased a bit to 11,726, thus ending 2013 year at a lower point than the end of 2012. But such increases in income have a delayed effect on spending, so Q4 2012's money contributed to the economy in 2013, and the later rebound will show up somewhat in 2014.

So, for 2013 the official increase of real GDP was 1.9%, the actual real increase was closer to 1.7% and what is the forward trajectory for 2014?

Here's my guess as to that question. First, it is highly unlikely that we could ever exceed 2.4%, because I think both housing and autos are near sustainable tops. But I also think that the floor is close to 2%, because although both are near the top money wants to come into the US, and neither are totally overblown. There is a downshift in the US economy now, but it's not a bad one.

The thing that stuns me mostly is that there is so little change in forecast. Last year in the fall I calculated that the end June/early July 2014, the 10 year Treasury should be yielding around 2.83 or 2.84, and I don't come up with anything very different. Perhaps 2.78%?

I do expect income gains in the US to be quite subdued this year, partly due to last year's overhang, partly due to ACA effects, and partly due to whacky government policies which include actual impediments to growth, especially in regulation and taxation, which is now grossly unfavorable to actual investment.MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-19827011683852696682014-01-24T06:05:00.000-08:002014-01-24T06:05:09.222-08:00Yes, yes, yesI got rather sick. I survived.

I have been watching the ACA meltdown with some fascination. It's hard to top stuff like this, but it is not funny for those who have paid their insurance bill, or had their accounts double-debited, and are still having to pay out of pocket for medicines and treatment. How long will it be before someone goes postal?

From the provider side it's not much better - if you signed up to deal with this it is administrative chaos that has the potential to destroy a practice.

It is not going to get better as the year wears on. The backend mechanisms aren't there, and several of the state sites are so bad they will probably be canned. The fixed expense/medical payout ratio in the law means that companies can't hire enough staff to straighten this out. Moody's is quite right.

I don't think that the government premium subsidies are being paid to the insurance companies, which is a big problem. From the insurance companies' perspectives, they are not getting paid the premiums, yet they have the problem of trying to straighten out the mess, and they have to pay claims without having received the premiums. It leaves little incentive.

And then consider that a very small minority of their total insured counts have the capacity to overwhelm their entire customer service system - they must be scrambling to set up different numbers and try to segregate ACA customers from their paying customers. That's reality, folks, and it's why CA ACA "customers" can't get through to a human being.The government pretends to pay for your insurance, and then your insurance company pretends to provide insurance, and then your provider has to figure out what to do with patients who may or may not be insured.

From the provider perspective, all these people in healthcare limbo pose a distinct threat to your finances. If you provide care without getting payment, you are going to be in a hole, and if you don't provide care, you may get sued. In any case, straightening out the fuss for these patients is likely to chew up your customer service staff's time and cause problems for your entire patient base.

Again, this is not going to get better as the year wears on. It's going to get worse, and access to care for ACA insured people is going to degenerate as providers start to tumble to the fact that insurers are mandated to carry the policy for 90 days if the premium was paid once, but not mandated to pay claims after the first thirty days. It's going to convert to a cash-up-front deal, reimbursement later in a lot of circumstances.

Your pie-in-the-sky liberal thought of the day: It takes a village to dig a small child out of the global warming drift, although it goes somewhat faster if you use solar panels as improvised global warming shovels!! MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-48620113665455066362013-12-25T14:45:00.000-08:002013-12-25T14:45:45.615-08:00Peace On Earth, Good Will To Men! What else is there to say, really?

I hope each of you are having wonderful holiday time with family and friends!MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-331240844649977112013-12-18T12:36:00.002-08:002013-12-18T12:36:35.422-08:00Both Santa AND GrinchWell, the Fed Grinch did the awful, cruel, horrible thing by cutting bond purchases by 10 billion, meaning they are only inserting a paltry 75 billion into the market each month. The HORROR. Little Citi Lou's eyes were just streaming!

BUT they also gave Mr. Market a candy cane by effectively changing their employment goal. It was 6.5%, but in this statement, mutatis mutandis:

The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal.
Mama Yellen is going to be even kinder than Uncle Ben. The reason for this change is that the unemployment rate will fall to the 6.5% mark about the 2nd quarter next year, what with the fact of all the old farts staggering out of the work force.

This is a de facto huge expectation loosening, and it will be interesting to see how inflation develops next year. Because in fact inflation in GDP terms came in right about 2%! So there isn't much margin there, and somewhere around the June meeting, Mama Yellen might have to come up with a little more mutatis mutandis syrup to heap on the stock market waffles.

We know she will, though, because she loves all her children so well, especially Citi Lou and Goldie Saxaphone, the littlest Hoos. And you can be sure that she will just gather all her children into her warm loving arms next spring and wipe the tears of anxiety from their plaintive eyes and whisper words of comfort into their ears JUST FOR THEM. There is no need to fear while Mama is there. No need at all.

2015 will therefore be pretty interesting. This isn't going to stabilize easily now. The most likely market move after today is for an epic run on commodities, purely because everything else has run out. It may be very durable, and there is a possibility of a recession in 2015 because of it. There's a lot of money out there and a lot of it is going to want to run into the US.

I am now going to start the rotation out of stocks. Mama Yellen looks to me to be utterly unequipped to handle a boisterous teenage speculative recovery. MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-68672329760959966582013-12-14T05:43:00.000-08:002013-12-14T05:43:31.679-08:00But They're Very EducatedThis is why a society without a certain number of nitpicking engineers is dysfunctional. Billions and billions and billions. A fourth grader should have been able to catch this.

MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-87361424047823459162013-12-13T14:59:00.000-08:002013-12-13T14:59:30.623-08:00Welcome to Brooklyn! Every once in a while the journalistic Dasein of the NY Times produces a gem of comedy, generally unwittingly. H/T Ann Althouse. There will be many good comments over at Ann's.

In this case, the unforeseen tragedy of the creative elites being forced to queue with truck drivers from Brooklyn in order to get health insurance gets a sympathetic placebo treatment.

Cry for the children.

Many in New York’s professional and cultural elite have long supported President Obama’s health care plan. But now, to their surprise, thousands of writers, opera singers, music teachers, photographers, doctors, lawyers and others ... will be treated as individuals, responsible for their own insurance policies.

For many of them, that is likely to mean they will no longer have access to a wide network of doctors and a range of plans tailored to their needs. And many of them are finding that if they want to keep their premiums from rising, they will have to accept higher deductible and co-pay costs or inferior coverage. ...

“All these people had these customized plans which are better than most of the things out there, and most of them are saving only a small amount of money,” he said.
This is shocking and baffling, and the NYT staff is trying helpfully to explain it, because everyone knew that those in flyover country who were complaining about their ACA insurance options were too stupid to know what a great deal they were getting. All the WH press releases said so.

The last three paragraphs are work of Mel-Brooksian farce - there must be some mistake - they're not from Brooklyn or Kansas, they're Obama people! MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-81712577754697783592013-12-09T07:24:00.001-08:002013-12-09T07:24:34.189-08:00An Excellent BIS ArticleIt covers international credit market developments. Points to note:
1) Central banks are in control of the conditions through their efforts at monetary easing.
2) Low investment opportunities in emerging markets have led to a search for other opportunities.
3) The focus has shifted to corporate bond issuance, and in the Euro area this is a big change:

The credit environment has benefited large non-financial corporates more than banks domiciled in advanced economies. Struggling to regain markets' confidence during the past five years, these banks have consistently faced higher borrowing costs than non-financial corporates with a similar credit rating. While the cost gap narrowed more recently, especially in the United States, it continued to exert upward pressure on bank lending rates. This prompted large non-financial firms to resort directly to debt markets, thus spurring corporate bond issuance. As a result, markets eclipsed banks as a source of new credit to corporates in the euro area.
4) The growth in corporates this year is mostly on the riskier side:

In the syndicated loan market, "leveraged" loans - granted to low-rated, highly leveraged borrowers - accounted for roughly 40% of new signings from July to November (Graph 3, centre panel). Remarkably, throughout most of 2013, this share was higher than during the pre-crisis period from 2005 to mid-2007. This was the result of both higher volumes of riskier loans (blue bars) and lower volumes in the safer part of the spectrum (red bars). In parallel, investors' drive towards high-yield credit resulted in a gradually falling share of those syndicated loans that feature creditor protection in the form of covenants (Graph 3, right-hand panel).
5) BIS seemed a little startled by the sudden yen for rolling bonds (the company doesn't have to pay the interest - instead it can just issue new bonds), despite the 30% default rate experienced in recent history:

The trend towards riskier credit was fairly general. It spurred, for example, the market for payment-in-kind notes, which give the borrower an option to repay lenders by issuing additional debt. Investors' renewed interest in these instruments resulted in more than $9 billion of new issuance over the first three quarters of 2013, one third higher than the overall issuance volume in 2012.
6) A sucker is born every minute, and PT Barnum's spiritual sons are working as European bankers and PE credit brokers:

Similarly, industry reports underscored the growing share of debt in funding private equity takeovers. In the United States, this share increased steadily after 2009 to reach two thirds in October 2013, a level similar to that in 2006-07. For their part, European banks took advantage of the borrower's market by stepping up issuance of subordinated debt, thus increasing the cushion that insulates their senior creditors from the fallout of potential future distress.
This goes on and on, but the most important part comes at the end. The easy credit granted to large corporates in the markets is not extending to smaller businesses, who are paying a large comparative tariff. This does not bode well for expansion, and it indirectly explains why low growth persists in spite of historically extreme easy money policies.

It's hard to see why this would stop - both India and China have credit difficulties of their own. In China's case, the rolling loan policy toward large state-ish companies has produced an epic wave of repayment dates and amounts in 2014, and no one knows what will happen. Will the plugs start to be pulled? Or will local Chinese governments keep the life-support plugged in? Sooner or later it will end.

However, as soon as interest rates do rise, corporations with a lot of debt will face difficulties in controlling future cash flows. Letting this trend continue for too long will result in future investment losses. .

MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451517.post-6819441995858392852013-12-07T10:05:00.000-08:002013-12-07T10:06:11.402-08:00Why You Think The Economy's So Bad

In a lot of ways, you're right. This is Fed series A229RXO, Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

There are obvious constraints on growth and obvious constraints on saving, which makes it hard for the younger to accumulate savings, and even harder for the older. Getting much in the way of inflation with these income statistics is an impossibility - if prices rise, people are forced to consume less.

Only time can heal this - next year the YoY change will be better, and the five year change will rise to about the 5% level, which would be a big help.

Under such circumstances, the domestic consumption growth is aimed toward necessities and lower priced luxuries. The good news is that the US economy is producing more energy, always produces a lot of food, and gets a decent amount of income off the lower priced luxuries. The bad news is that increases in taxation have the capacity to knock the recovery off its rocker, as do mandates to consumers to purchase services they can't afford, which is just another name for "tax". MaxedOutMamahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08011469804162511617noreply@blogger.com10

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Tôi thích website muabannhadat.com.vn nội dung phong phú, có đầy đủ thông tin của thị trường BĐS, giao diện thân thiện.
Đăng tin bên website bên em có nhiều khách hàng gọi điện thoại đến.
Tôi rất hài lòng và thoải mái khi làm việc với các bạn, tôi nghĩ các bạn sẽ còn tiến xa hơn nữa.
Cách chăm sóc thân thiện, không có gì để phàn nàn về dịch vụ
Tôi rất thích cách chăm sóc và phục vụ khách hàng của muabannhadat.com.vn. Với những người như vậy tôi tin các bạn sẽ còn phát triển hơn nữa.
Công nhận bên muabannhadat.com.vn đăng rất hiệu quả, mới đăng một ngày mà có nhiều người gọi quá..rất cảm ơn.
Tôi ngạc nhiên vì công nghệ các bạn đang áp dụng, các bạn đã tạo cho mình điểm nhấn và sự khác biệt. muabannhadat.com.vn sẽ gặt hái được nhiều thành công.
Tôi cảm nhận rất rõ sự lớn mạnh của các bạn trên thị trường. Chúc cho sự hợp tác của Việt Long và muabannhadat.com.vn luôn luôn bền vững.
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Bên em có gói nào mới cứ báo cho chị nhé, chị rất thích các dịch vụ bên em. Nhiều tin chị vừa đăng đã có người gọi.
Làm việc với bên em rất ok, vì thủ tục không phức tạp, tiện cho anh. Cảm ơn!
Nhà mới đăng 2 tuần online chưa lên báo mà đã bán được, cám ơn em nhiều nhé!
muabannhadat.com.vnLuôn vì khách hàng - 18001207
MuaBanNhaDat © 2007 - 2014. Ghi rõ nguồn "MuaBanNhaDat.com.vn" khi phát hành lại thông tin từ website này.
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Hotline: 18001207 Hỗ trợ trực tuyến:
Văn phòng - Cho thuê
150 - 225 - 319 - 453 m2
34 USD
Mê Linh Point Tower là một cao ốc thương mại hiện đại nằm trong một vị trí thuận tiện, ngay tại trung tâm thành phố, khu thương mại và giải trí của Sài Gòn. Từ Mê Linh Point Tower chỉ mất ít phút tới các cơ quan hành chánh chủ yếu của chính quyền. Các khách sạn lớn như Renaissance, Sheraton, Legend và Park Hyat đều cách Mê Linh Point Tower không xa.
Mê Linh Point Tower, một tòa nhà văn phỏng theo tiêu chuẩn quốc tế bao gồm 22 tầng cung cấp 20.000m2 cho khu vực văn phòng, cách thiết kế linh hoạt cho từng loại văn phòng với diện tích từ 80 – 1.000m2. Được hổ trợ 5 thang máy "Miconic 10" thông minh tốc độ cao và bãi đậu xe 2 tầng ở tầng hầm của tòa nhà.
Mê Linh, Building Mê Linh, Mê Linh Building, Cao ốc Mê Linh, Mê Linh Cao ốc, Tower Mê Linh, Mê Linh Tower, Tòa Nhà Mê Linh, Mê Linh Tòa Nhà, Tòa Tháp Mê Linh, Mê Linh Tòa Tháp, Cụm Cao Ốc Mê Linh, Mê Linh Cụm Cao Ốc, khu cao ốc Mê Linh, Mê Linh khu cao ốc
Mọi nhân viên trong công ty đều thích đăng quảng cáo trên trang web muabannhadat.com.vn vì thấy nó có hiệu quả.
Công ty chúng tôi luôn được hỗ trợ và tư vấn kịp thời thông qua các gói tiện ích hiệu quả mà muabannhadat.com.vn cung cấp.
Tôi thích website muabannhadat.com.vn nội dung phong phú, có đầy đủ thông tin của thị trường BĐS, giao diện thân thiện.
Đăng tin bên website bên em có nhiều khách hàng gọi điện thoại đến.
Tôi rất hài lòng và thoải mái khi làm việc với các bạn, tôi nghĩ các bạn sẽ còn tiến xa hơn nữa.
Cách chăm sóc thân thiện, không có gì để phàn nàn về dịch vụ
Tôi rất thích cách chăm sóc và phục vụ khách hàng của muabannhadat.com.vn. Với những người như vậy tôi tin các bạn sẽ còn phát triển hơn nữa.
Công nhận bên muabannhadat.com.vn đăng rất hiệu quả, mới đăng một ngày mà có nhiều người gọi quá..rất cảm ơn.
Tôi ngạc nhiên vì công nghệ các bạn đang áp dụng, các bạn đã tạo cho mình điểm nhấn và sự khác biệt. muabannhadat.com.vn sẽ gặt hái được nhiều thành công.
Tôi cảm nhận rất rõ sự lớn mạnh của các bạn trên thị trường. Chúc cho sự hợp tác của Việt Long và muabannhadat.com.vn luôn luôn bền vững.
Đăng tin “vip box” trên web bên em, anh đã bán được nhà trong 1 tuần, cảm ơn bên em.
Sau 1 năm sử dụng dịch vụ và đi cùng sự phát triển của muabannhadat.com.vn anh thấy bên em càng chuyên nghiệp và nổi tiếng. Bạn bè trong ngành BĐS anh hỏi thì ai cũng biết bên em.
Bên em có gói nào mới cứ báo cho chị nhé, chị rất thích các dịch vụ bên em. Nhiều tin chị vừa đăng đã có người gọi.
Làm việc với bên em rất ok, vì thủ tục không phức tạp, tiện cho anh. Cảm ơn!
Nhà mới đăng 2 tuần online chưa lên báo mà đã bán được, cám ơn em nhiều nhé!
muabannhadat.com.vnLuôn vì khách hàng - 18001207
MuaBanNhaDat © 2007 - 2014. Ghi rõ nguồn "MuaBanNhaDat.com.vn" khi phát hành lại thông tin từ website này.
Giấy phép số: 60/GP/ICP-STTT, do Sở Thông tin và Truyền Thông TP. Hồ Chí Minh cấp ngày 31/07/2012

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**Mỗi khi chuyển mùa, đặc biệt từ mùa lạnh sang nóng thì bệnh nhiệt miệng lại phổ biến và hành hạ không ít người vì gây khó khăn trong sinh hoạt và giao tiếp hàng ngày. Bệnh gây ra cảm giác đau đớn và khó chịu, ăn mất ngon, có khi dẫn đến rối loạn tiêu hóa và gầy sút do các ổ hoại tử dần trở thành vết loét trong khoang miệng, làm người bệnh kém ăn và không hấp thu đủ chất dinh dưỡng. Nếu người thân bị nhiệt miệng, bạn có thể làm gì để giúp họ giảm đau và mau lành? Hãy cùng chúng tôi tham khảo một số mẹo nhỏ giúp bạn giải đáp thắc mắc này nhé!**
## 1. Chế độ dinh dưỡng khi bị nhiệt miệng
Để giảm bớt nhiệt miệng gây đau đớn, cần xác định đúng căn nguyên gây bệnh để điều trị tận gốc. Tuy nhiên, chế độ ăn uống cũng giúp bạn hạn chế được tình trạng này. Người bị nhiệt miệng cần tăng cường ăn nhiều rau quả, trái cây để bổ sung các yếu tố vi lượng, các loại vitamin C, PP, B2… Mướp đắng, dưa chuột, bí đao, rau má, mồng tơi, chè đậu đen, bột sắn dây… là những thực phẩm có tính mát nên tác dụng chữa bệnh rất tốt.
Nên hạn chế ăn các đồ cay, nóng như tiêu, gừng, tỏi, ớt, các thức ăn chiên xào nhiều dầu mỡ… vì có thể làm cho ổ loét nặng thêm.
Uống nước chè tươi hàng ngày có tác dụng thanh nhiệt, giải độc, đồng thời có tác dụng
[rất hiệu quả do bản chất chống oxy hóa. Có thể dùng ống hút khi uống nước để giảm đau. bảo vệ răng miệng ](http://net.meyeucon.org/suckhoe/1497/bao-ve-rang-mieng-the-nao-cho-dung/)
## 2. Chế độ sinh hoạt
- Đảm bảo vệ sinh răng miệng sạch sẽ sau khi ăn, sáng sớm khi thức dậy và mỗi tối trước khi đi ngủ. Bạn nên cẩn thận khi đánh răng, không để bàn chải cọ xát vào vết loét nhiều lần làm chúng dễ lan rộng.
- Súc miệng bằng nước muối hoặc thảo mộc tự nhiên (như nước lô hội, dầu trà…) đều đặn mỗi ngày 3 lần sau khi đánh răng giúp nhiệt miệng nhanh khỏi và không gây đau rát.
- Giữ tinh thần luôn thoải mái, yêu đời, tránh stress, căng thẳng vì stress chính là kẻ thù nguy hiểm của bệnh nhiệt miệng, làm cho bệnh dai dẳng và lâu lành.
## 3. Một vài mẹo nhỏ cho người bị nhiệt miệng
- Sữa chua: Sữa chua được biết đến với các vi sinh vật có lợi cho sức khỏe, đặc biệt là hệ tiêu hóa, ngoài ra chúng giúp cân bằng các vi khuẩn trong miệng. Ăn sữa chua giúp các vi sinh vật tập trung đến ổ loét, kiểm soát các vết loét cũ, khống chế không để hình thành vết loét mới và nhanh liền hơn.
- Rau ngót, rau diếp cá hoặc cỏ mực: chỉ hái lá, rửa thật sạch, giã hoặc ép lấy nước cốt dùng uống ngày 2-3 lần, hòa thêm ít mật ong cho dễ uống. Có thể lấy nước rau ngót hoặc cỏ mực bôi trực tiếp vào vết loét giúp giảm đau, nhanh lành.
- Khế chua: rửa sạch 2-3 quả, khế càng chua càng tốt, giã nát, cho vào nồi và đổ nước sôi ngập rồi đun sôi thêm một lúc, sau đó để nguội và ngậm hàng ngày. Khế chua có tác dụng tân sinh dịch để điều trị vết loét.
- Tỏi hoặc đu đủ: thái lát mỏng và đắp trực tiếp lên chỗ loét, do có chứa chất kháng sinh nên thúc đẩy nhanh quá trình làm lành vết thương.
- Mật ong hoặc dầu đinh hương: do có tính sát khuẩn mạnh nên có thể dùng để chấm và bôi trực tiếp lên vết thương giúp giảm đau và nhanh lành.
- Củ cải: gọt vỏ, rửa sạch, giã rồi vắt lấy nước, hòa thêm một chút nước sôi dùng súc miệng ngày 3 lần cũng có tác dụng chữa nhiệt miệng khá hiệu quả.
## 4. Điều trị bằng thuốc cho những người bị nhiệt miệng
Đối với những người bị nhiệt nặng, dai dẳng cần đến gặp bác sĩ để được chỉ định điều trị bằng thuốc càng sớm càng tốt. Các loại kháng sinh phối hợp dạng bột được sử dụng rộng rãi hiện nay là: Sulfamethoxazon, Trimethoprim, Serathiopeptit và hoạt chất tạo màng ngăn… Cần kiên trì bôi thuốc thường xuyên cho đến khi lành hẳn và tiếp tục điều trị khi bệnh tái phát.
Tuy nhiên, bạn cần hỏi ý kiến bác sĩ xem loại thuốc đó có phù hợp với mình không trước khi sử dụng để hạn chế nguy cơ dị ứng thuốc.
## Gửi bình luận Hùy bình luận

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# Lưu Diệc Phi đang yêu Lâm Chí Dĩnh?
## Nàng "Tiểu Long Nữ" vừa úp mở về hình mẫu đàn ông lý tưởng của mình và nhiều nghi vấn đang nghiêng về bạn diễn của cô trong "Thiên Long Bát Bộ".
>>
[Lưu Diệc Phi chờ đợi tình yêu](http://news.zing.vn/news/phim-chau-a/luu-diec-phi-cho-doi-tinh-yeu/a56122.html)
Cách đây không lâu, trong một cuộc phỏng vấn cho chương trình truyền hình
*Thế giới phụ nữ*, Lưu Diệc Phi tỏ ra khá rụt rè khi nhắc đến hình mẫu ý trung nhân: "Tôi mong anh ấy sẽ là người chu đáo, tốt bụng và quan tâm đến những người xung quanh". Cư dân mạng đã được dịp bàn tán sôi nổi về người tình trong mộng của "người đẹp pha lê" và có bốn cái tên đã được nhắc tới.
Người đầu tiên phải kể đến là nam diễn viên Huỳnh Hiểu Minh, bạn diễn của Lưu Diệc Phi trong
*Thần điêu đại hiệp.* Chính ngôi sao đại lục này cũng đã từng tuyên bố "nàng Cô Cô" xinh đẹp là hình mẫu bạn gái lý tưởng của anh song báo chí vẫn chưa một lần bắt gặp cặp đôi này đi chung cùng nhau. Ngoài ra, hai nam ca sĩ nổi tiếng khác của đại lục là Lang Lang và Dịch Kiến Liên cũng từng có tin đồn tình cảm với Lưu Diệc Phi nhưng nghi vấn số 1 vẫn đang đổ dồn về phía ngôi sao có gương mặt baby - Lâm Chí Dĩnh.
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Lâm Chí Dĩnh và Lưu Diệc Phi tình cảm trên phim trường
Kể từ sau khi đóng chung trong
*Thiên Long Bát Bộ*, Lâm Chí Dĩnh và Lưu Diệc Phi đã kết nghĩa anh em và luôn quấn quýt bên nhau trong nhiều hoạt động giải trí. Nàng Diệp Tú Châu của *Kim phấn thế gia *còn sẵn lòng nhận lời làm người mẫu trong video clip ca nhạc của Chí Dĩnh. Ngoài 30 tuổi, Lâm Chí Dĩnh không chỉ thành công trong âm nhạc lẫn điện ảnh, anh còn có một công ty riêng với tài sản lên tới hơn 1 tỉ nhân dân tệ. Ngoài ra, anh còn được biết tới là một [tay đua kiệt xuất](http://news.zing.vn/news/phim-chau-a/lam-chi-dinh-tay-dua-kiet-xuat/a22255.html) được chào đón trên đường đua tốc độ.
Những hình ảnh tình cảm của Lâm Chí Dĩnh và Lưu Diệc Phi khiến cư dân mạng nghi ngờ họ chính là một cặp đôi:
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Cùng chui vào chăn ủ ấm tránh cái lạnh cóng trên phim trường
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Luôn quấn quýt cùng nhau dù trong giờ nghỉ giải lao
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Cặp đôi đẹp trên màn ảnh
![]()
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Hay trên sân khấu ca nhạc
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Tạo dáng bên xe
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Bên nhau ngày sinh nhật
Mi Lan
Theo Bưu điện Việt Nam
## Chia sẻ

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Nhạc sĩ: Đang Cập Nhật (VN)
Album:
[Thế Thái Nhân Tình (Mp3)](http://nhac.vui.vn/the-thai-nhan-tinh-mp3-cao-trung-a13161p6808.html)
Thể loại:
[Nhạc Trẻ](http://nhac.vui.vn/nhac-tre-c3.html)
Lượt nghe: 171,047
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Đã Như Làn Mây Bay
Thế gian ơi vì sao người lỡ reo sầu đau
## Lời bài hát: Đã Như Làn Mây Bay - Cao Trung
Phiên bản 1/1
Người đóng góp: Administrator
Một tình yêu hai đinh nghĩa như thế được không
Một người yêu thật lòng một người cứ cợt đùa
Xua tan đi mộng đẹp của đôi ta
Nắng bên thềm dần phai người bước đi cùng ai
Tình yêu ấy mang trong tim lời hứa còn đây
Nhìn nàn mây nhẹ bay để cơn mưa còn đây
Sau đêm nay màu đen che lấp khung trời
Đã như nàn mây bay bay về nơi xa xăm mịt mù
Để cho anh lẻ loi giờ tình đâu những ngày xưa ấy
Tình cho đi thì sao cũng mất đi yêu thương ngày nao
Rồi mai đây thì anh sẽ biết ai yêu anh thật lòng
Giá như mình đừng quen sẽ đẹp hơn khi ta chia lìa
Vì trong tim của anh người là nắng chan hòa cuộc sống
Giờ mỗi đứa một nơi cuộc sống ôi trống vắng lẻ loi
Đành câm nín vậy thôi vì người đã trao lời chia tay./

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markdown:
# Khi Yêu Đừng Nói Chia Tay
# Phim Cùng Thể Loại Tâm Lý - Tình Cảm
Lượt xem: 22533
[Nàng Tiên Cá 3: Câu Chuyện Bắt Đầu](http://phim.anhtrang.org/phim/nang-tien-ca-3-cau-chuyen-bat-dau-lXaLUk.html)
Lượt xem: 6385
[Nàng Tiên Cá 2: Trở Về Biển Cả](http://phim.anhtrang.org/phim/nang-tien-ca-2-tro-ve-bien-ca-kXaLUk.html)
Lượt xem: 4642
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Lượt xem: 20762
[Ác Quỷ Dracula: Huyền Thoại Chưa Kể](http://phim.anhtrang.org/phim/ac-quy-dracula-huyen-thoai-chua-ke-QWaLUk.html)
Lượt xem: 99207
Lượt xem: 17505
### Thông Báo
-Nếu không hiện thông báo video không tồn tại mà vẫn không xem được thì bạn hãy thử đổi sang chế độ HD (720p hoặc 1080p) rồi nhấn play để xem.
-Bạn nào xem phim thấy hiện thông báo video không tồn tại vui lòng để lại comment để BQT cập nhật lại link (Nếu tất cả các phần không xem được mới là đã bị xóa).
-Các phim có ghi HD thì xem server youtube và picasa sẽ hiện chất lượng phim để bạn chọn cho phù hợp đường truyền.
### Tin Điện Ảnh
-
[Triệu Lệ Dĩnh lấm lem sau “trận chiến” bùn lầy](http://phim.anhtrang.org/tin-tuc/trieu-le-dinh-lam-lem-sau-tran-chien-bun-lay-764.html)Dự án truyền hình “Thực Tập Sinh” công...
-
[Park Shin Hye phụng phịu khi được Lee Jong Suk cõng trên lưng](http://phim.anhtrang.org/tin-tuc/park-shin-hye-phung-phiu-khi-duoc-lee-jong-suk-cong-tren-lung-763.html)Trong loạt ảnh mới của dự án "Pinocchio",...
- Xem thêm
### Xem Nhiều Trong Ngày
![ Chuyện Ấy Là Chuyện Nhỏ](http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/6152/sexandthecity6766583.jpg)
Sex and the City được xây dựng dựa theo...
![ Thám Tử Lừng Danh Conan ( Trọn Bộ )](http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/3416/anhtrangorgpp0226mbidet.jpg)
Các bạn chú ý: Các tập...
![ Đôrêmon | Trọn Bộ Tiếng Việt](http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/1267/anhtrangorgyumewokanaet.jpg)
Phần 1: Thành phố tùy ý muốnPhần...
![ Dị Biến](http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img537/6461/dhw74q.jpg)
A former soldier is taken captive and awakens in the...
![ Mối Tình Bí Mật](http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/911/6fqr.jpg)
![ Giai Điệu Tình Yêu](http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/821/wzw0.jpg)
Cô gái xinh đẹp Dong Joo (Park Ha Sun)...
![ Vệ Binh Dải Ngân Hà](http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img661/3658/L2cYSX.jpg)
After stealing a mysterious orb in the far reaches...
![ Quá Nhanh Quá Nguy Hiểm 3: Đường Đua Tokyo](http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/9492/1335628375.jpg)
Để tránh việc phải trại giam, tay đua...
![ Cướp Biển Vùng Caribê 2: Chiếc Rương Tử Thần](http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/1058/1803822486.jpg)
Thuyền trưởng Jack Sparrow lại một lần...
![ Ác Quỷ Dracula: Huyền Thoại Chưa Kể](http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img538/3803/5HD6hM.jpg)
At the turn of the century, the young lord Vlad and...
- Xem thêm

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markdown: Xem Phim » Phim phim-bi-mat-tam-giac-vang-tap-17 Tập 62014 Biến Đổi Mỹ Nhân Tap 7-8 Tập 312013 Bí Mật Bị Lãng Quên Vtv3 Tap 30-31 Tập 22014 Con Đường Vàng Son Thvl1 Tap 4-5-6-7-8-9-10 Traiter2014 Biệt Đội Big Hero 6 Big Hero 6 Tìm Phim Bằng Công cụ google

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markdown:
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Tập cuối2010
Lets Viet Tap 13-14-15-16
-
Tập 12014
[Fate/Stay Night Phần 2 - Unlimited Blade Work](http://phim.org/movie/fate-stay-night-phan-2-unlimited-blade-work)
Fate Stay Night 2 - Unlimited Blade Work Tap 1-2-3
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Tập cuối2014
Phim Tran Chien Cong Ly Haytv
-
Full2014
Hungry Ghost Ritual
![ Loading](http://phim.org/play/adsfile/loading.gif)
Tập cuối2010
Lets Viet Tap 13-14-15-16
Tập 12014
[Fate/Stay Night Phần 2 - Unlimited Blade Work](http://phim.org/movie/fate-stay-night-phan-2-unlimited-blade-work)
Fate Stay Night 2 - Unlimited Blade Work Tap 1-2-3
Tập cuối2014
Phim Tran Chien Cong Ly Haytv
Full2014
Hungry Ghost Ritual


markdown: **Phim** 22 - [ miễn phí, chất lượng hình ảnh rõ nét, tốc độ tải phim nhanh, Xem phim online](http://phim22.com/) [không phải chờ đợi lâu. Phim 22 luôn cập nhật](http://phim22.com/) **xem phim** [để để mang đến cho các bạn những bộ](http://phim22.com/phim-moi-nhat/page-1.html) **phim mới** [,](http://phim22.com/phim-hanh-dong/1/page-1.html) **phim hành động** [,](http://phim22.com/phim-vo-thuat/6/page-1.html) **võ thuật** [, các thể loại](http://phim22.com/phim-chieu-rap-moi/page-1.html) **phim chiếu rạp** [,](http://phim22.com/phim-tam-ly/9/page-1.html) **phim tâm lý** [cực lôi cuốn và hấp dẫn nhất. Đặc biệt website rất thân thiện với người dùng và hạn chế tối đa các quảng cáo gây khó chịu khi](http://phim22.com/phim-tinh-cam/4/page-1.html) **phim tình cảm** **xem phim**. Chúc các bạn **xem phim**vui vẻ.

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markdown:
[Người khổng lồ xanh](phim-le/nguoi-khong-lo-xanh_926/)(2003)Hulk699 Like [Người Khổng Lồ Xanh](phim-le/nguoi-khong-lo-xanh_292/)(2010)Planet Hulk222 Like
- The Incredible Hulk564 Like
[Người Khổng Lồ Xanh & Thor](phim-le/nguoi-khong-lo-xanh-thor_4759/)(2009)Hulk Vs Thor89 Like [Nhện Khổng Lồ 3](phim-le/nhen-khong-lo-3_4825/)(2008)Starship Troopers 3:...106 Like [Người Sắt Khổng Lồ](phim-le/nguoi-sat-khong-lo_6210/)(1999)The Iron Giant36 Like
- Jack the Giant Killer2,303 LikeBản Đẹp
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- Rambo 3514 Like
[Quái Vật Không Gian 3](phim-le/quai-vat-khong-gian-3_1408/)(1992)Alien 3117 Like [Không Người Lái](phim-le/khong-nguoi-lai_661/)(2010)Driverless5 Like [Người Hùng 3](phim-bo/nguoi-hung-3_2462/)(2008)Heroes Season 3112 Like25/25 [Yêu Không Ràng Buộc](phim-le/yeu-khong-rang-buoc_41/)(2011)No Strings Attached359 Like [Người Không Hình Bóng](phim-bo/nguoi-khong-hinh-bong_2123/)(2011)Men With No Shadows20 Like20/20 [Người Vận Chuyển 3](phim-le/nguoi-van-chuyen-3_438/)(2008)The Transporter 31,243 LikePhần 3 [Đất Mơ Xanh](phim-bo/dat-mo-xanh_5800/)(2013)Dat Mo Xanh32 Like30/30 [Người Nhện 3](phim-le/nguoi-nhen-3_1896/)(2007)Spiderman 31,050 Like [Người Sắt 3](phim-le/nguoi-sat-3_3309/)(2013)Iron Man 35,939 LikeBản Đẹp
- Terminator 3 Rise of the...398 Like
[Người Tình Tuyệt Vời](phim-le/nguoi-tinh-tuyet-voi_1940/)(2011)Perfect Partner152 Like

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markdown:
[Bad Guy](phim-bo/bad-guy_7971/)(2014)Bad Guy50 LikeTập 06 [Đến Hẹn Lại Lên](phim-le/den-hen-lai-len_5442/)(1994)Den Hen Lai Len35 Like [Mùa Len Trâu](phim-le/mua-len-trau_6976/)(2005)Mua Len Trau23 Like [Cạm Bẫy](phim-bo/cam-bay_1977/)(2012)Cam Bay17 LikeTập 06 [Hãy Cười Lên Nào](phim-bo/hay-cuoi-len-nao_7606/)(2007)Kimchi Cheese Smile0 LikeĐang Cập Nhật [Ánh Sáng Cuối Con Đường](phim-le/anh-sang-cuoi-con-duong_2623/)(2012)The Cold Light Of Day22 Like [Hửng Đông Phần 2](phim-le/hung-dong-phan-2_4204/)(2012)The Twilight Saga...536 Like [Tiếng Tơ Đồng](phim-bo/tieng-to-dong_2344/)(2011)THVL150 Like31/31 [Bản Kê Số Phận](phim-bo/ban-ke-so-phan_8051/)(2014)Lets Viet11 Like37/37 [Tội Lỗi Cuối Cùng](phim-le/toi-loi-cuoi-cung_6966/)(1980)Toi Loi Cuoi Cung6 Like [Lên Đên Trên Biển 2: Mắc Cạn](phim-le/len-den-tren-bien-2-mac-can_4602/)(2006)Open Water 2: Adrift62 Like [Nước Mắt Và Nụ Cười](phim-bo/nuoc-mat-va-nu-cuoi_2160/)(2012)TodayTV868 Like50/50 [Đô rê mon Màu](phim-bo/do-re-mon-mau_1869/)(2000)Doremon HTV3913 Like52/52 [Ngày hôm qua](phim-bo/ngay-hom-qua_1918/)(2012)Ngay Hom Qua20 Like28/30 [Phán Xét Cuối Cùng](phim-le/phan-xet-cuoi-cung_1508/)(1988)Final Justice617 Like [Phán Quyết Cuối Cùng](phim-le/phan-quyet-cuoi-cung_5181/)(2006)X men 3 The Last Stand135 Like [Biệt Động Sài Gòn: Điểm Hẹn](phim-le/biet-dong-sai-gon-diem-hen_6956/)(1986)Biet Dong Sai Gon 122 Like [Bộ Sưu Tập Trắng 2](phim-bo/bo-suu-tap-trang-2_7193/)(2012)White Album 265 Like [Cánh Đồng Hoang](phim-le/canh-dong-hoang_6971/)(1980)Canh Dong Hoang26 Like [Bộ Sưu Tập Ảo Thuật Không...](phim-bo/bo-suu-tap-ao-thuat-khong-tuong-2_7707/)(2011)Dynamo: Magician...54 Like4/4 [Cánh Đồng Bất Tận](phim-le/canh-dong-bat-tan_1395/)(2010)Canh Dong Bat Tan83 Like [Ba Giờ Sáng 2](phim-le/ba-gio-sang-2_7702/)(2014)3 A.M. 3D: Part 2406 LikeBản Đẹp [37°2 Buổi Sáng](phim-le/37-2-buoi-sang_5342/)(1986)Betty Blue6 Like [Biệt Động Sài Gòn: Tình Lặng](phim-le/biet-dong-sai-gon-tinh-lang_6957/)(1986)Biet Dong Sai Gon 234 Like [Biệt Động Sài Gòn: Cơn Giông](phim-le/biet-dong-sai-gon-con-giong_6958/)(1986)Biet Dong Sai Gon 313 Like
- Biet Dong Sai Gon 49 Like
[Đường Lên Điện Biên](phim-bo/duong-len-dien-bien_7475/)(2014)VTV1276 Like26/26 [Hà Nội Mùa Đông Năm 46](phim-le/ha-noi-mua-dong-nam-46_6963/)(1996)Ha Noi Mua Dong Nam 467 Like [Naruto](phim-bo/naruto_1524/)(2007)Naruto Dattebayo38,265 Like220/220 [Phiên Chợ Số](phim-bo/phien-cho-so_7145/)(2011)Securities Exchange11 Like36/36 [Tiếng Đàn Kìm](phim-bo/tieng-dan-kim_7342/)(2012)Tieng Dan Kim39 Like40/40
- Lethal Weapon Of Love And...337 LikeĐã sửa Link


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