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Predicting the Behavior of an Oil Spill in the Black Sea Resulting from Accidental Offshore Deepwater Blowout

Abstract A coupled circulation/oil spill model has been applied to the Black Sea to address the transport, fate and 3-D structure of the oil plume resulting from a representative hypothetical deepwater blowout. With climatological forcing, the hydrodynamic module based on the DieCAST ocean circulation model realistically simulates many of the dominant mesoscale features of seasonally varying large-scale circulation and mesoscale elements including the Rim Current, anticyclonic coastal eddies, headland eddy shedding and vertical stratification. The oil spill module ingests DieCAST surface currents and employs a Lagrangian tracking algorithm to predict the motion of a large number of seeded particles, the sum of which forms the rising oil plume. Basic processes affecting the transport of oil and its fate in the water column are included in the coupled model. The work focuses on an influence of coastal mesoscale eddies on transport and the fate of oil pollution in the Black Sea. One possible scenario, when the Caucasian anticyclonic eddy captures surfacing oil released by a hypothetical deepsea oil blowout east of the Crimea peninsula, is considered to understand the behavior of the oil plume and demonstrate model ability. Structures of the 3-D oil plume created by oil droplets rising from the bottom oil blowout as well as movement and fate of the oil slick are scrutinized. Effects of basin-scale and mesoscale structures combined with wind-driven currents on rising and surfacing oil droplets are studied and discussed. The likelihood of contamination of coastal areas is assessed.