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Covid-19: Early evening curfews are not effective and may backfire

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries have introduced early evening curfews. Several studies try measure the effectiveness of such measures across different countries, but clear identification of effects is elusive. Objective: We examined the impact of an early evening curfew on mobility by studying a shift in curfews from 9pm to 6pm in Greece. Data and Methods: We took advantage of a natural experiment in Greece, where curfews shifted from 9pm to 6pm in one Region, but not in another. We followed a difference-in-difference econometric approach, where we compared trends in mobility in groceries and pharmacies as well as residential spaces before and after the introduction of the 6pm curfew, in the two regions. Results: The relative difference in the time spent in groceries and pharmacies between the two regions before and after the intervention, is statistically insignificant [coeff: -9.95; 95%CI -44.358 to 24.458]. The relative increase in time spent in groceries and pharmacies after the 6pm curfew was only 4.625 percentage points [coeff: 4.625; 95%CI 1.412 to 7.838]. Conclusions: We found that the 6pm instead of 9pm curfew in Athens led to a 4.63 percentage point relative increase in time spent at home and had no effect on time spent in groceries and pharmacies. Considering that this was a result of a 18.75% reduction in hours where people were allowed to leave home, it seems that the early evening curfew led to more crowding in indoor spaces; which may facilitate the spread of disease. Lockdowns and other measures are necessary to tackle Covid-19, but it is important to avoid substitution by activities that contribute further to spreading the virus. Interventions should therefore be based on a thorough analysis of human behaviour.