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Statistical Probability as a Metaphor for Epistemological Probability

The metaphor, "EPISTEMOLOGICAL PROBABILITY IS STATISTICAL PROBABILITY" is traced to the origins of probability theory. Related metaphors appear both in everyday discourse about social processes, and in social scientific argumentation, often disguised as literal claims. Gambling provides a familiar vehicle for expressing the uncertainties associated with social interactions and with social science research. Examples are drawn from reports of research on media effects, from everyday conversations, and from political communication.