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Azerbaijan after Heydar Aliev

The 15 October 2003 presidential election went down in the history of Azerbaijan as a turning point for three reasons. First, it provided a legitimacy for the transfer of power from ailing President Heydar Aliev to his son Ilham. Second, it demonstrated the unwillingness of the so-called “international community” to risk jeopardizing geostrategic and economic interests by unequivocally condemning blatant falsification of the ballot. And, third, by failing to condemn falsification of the ballot, the international community has signaled to other entrenched Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders that they have little to lose by following the Azeri example. However, the developments one month later in Georgia evidently worried them that the popular protests that forced President Shevardnadze from power could have adverse repercussions for incumbent leaders across the region.