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Impact of Climate Changes on the Portuguese Energy Generation Mix

Global climate change is currently a focus issue because of its impacts on the most diverse natural systems and, consequently, the development of humanity. The electricity sector is a major contributor to climate change because of its long-standing dependence on fossil fuels. However, the energy paradigm is changing, and renewable sources tend to play an increasingly important role in the energy mix in Portugal. Due to the strong relationship between renewable energies and climate-related natural resources, the climate change phenomenon could have considerable effects on the electricity sector. This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on the energy mix in Portugal in the medium / long term (up to 2050). The proposed methodology is based on the simulation of climate scenarios and projections of installed power by type and consumption. The combinations of these conditions are inputted to an energy accounting simulation tool, able to combine all information and provide a characterization of the system state for each case. The most favorable forecasted scenarios indicate that a fully renewable electricity system is achievable in the medium term, in line with the objectives of the European Union, as long as investments in renewable sources continue to be stimulated in the coming years.