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Incidence of HIV infection in Djibouti in 1988.

To determine the annual incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in high-risk populations in East Africas Republic of Djibouti 2 prospective serosurveys spaced 8 months apart were conducted in 1987-88. Both surveys had similar designs and covered barmaids street prostitutes and male subjects (primarily with sexually transmitted diseases). In the sample as a whole (n = 1245) there was a doubling of the HIV seropositivity rate between the 2 surveys from 1.2% in October 1987 to 2.6% in June 1988. Seropositive rates for males remained constant at 0.8% between 2 surveys while the rate for barmaids increased from 1.4% to 2.7% and that for prostitutes rose from 4.6% to 9.0%. By projecting the observed seroprevalence rates to a 1-year period the annual incidence of HIV seroconversion in 1987 and 1988 in Djibouti can be estimated to be around 2% in barmaids and 6% in street prostitutes. These findings suggest that Djibouti faces the threat of HIV becoming a serious public health problem in certain at-risk populations in the years ahead.