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CARBON BALANCE IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS OF BELARUS 
AND ITS RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Maps of annual CO2 emission flows for terrestrial ecosystems of Belarus were built on the basis of long-term remote sensing of the Earth data and global biophysical land cover models. It was found that net (pure) CO2 sink in terrestrial ecosystems of Belarus is ~31.4 million tons per year, and increase in its photosynthetic component with the rate 1.16 million tons of CO2 per year is observed. However, increase in solar radiation and average annual temperature in addition to decrease in effective rainfall (excluding evaporation) form the negative component in total absorptive capacity of ecosystems in Belarus, which is 2.03 million tons of CO2 per year. The strongest negative climate-related biogenic carbon sink trend is characteristic for the ecosystems in south-eastern part of Belarus. According to CMIP5 models, observed trends in change of bioclimatic characteristics in Belarus will preserve during the upcoming decades or even become stronger. In particular, rapid winter warming and slower summer warming together with the decrease in amount of summer rainfall over the most of the country are expected, which will lead to higher risk of summer droughts and decrease in photosynthetic component of biogenic carbon sink in southern Belarus. At the same time, projected climate change might have positive effect on bioproductivity of ecosystems in northern Belarus, where biomes are characterized by excess water supply and heat supply deficiency.