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[Factor decomposition and reduction effect on the changes of industrial wastewater discharge].

After describing the volume of industrial wastewater discharge, economic growth, economic space structure and industrial wastewater discharge intensity, the non-residue complete decomposition model was applied to analyze the effects of three economically factors, which were economic scale, discharge intensity and space structure, on the changes of industrial wastewater discharge quantitatively from 1981 to 2006 in China. Then industrial wastewater reduction effect was computed by use of H-P filter method. The main results could be summarized as follows: (1) The average annual growth of industrial wastewater discharge is 0.25 x 10(8) t, and the scale of economic development, the space structure and the industrial wastewater discharge intensity have different contributions to the change, being 25.9 x 10(8) t, - 25.5 x 10(8) t, -0.16 x 10(8) t respectively. (2) Accumulative quantity of industrial wastewater discharge reduction is 641.8 x 10(8) t from 1981 to 2006 in China. During this period, with the impact of macroeconomic policies, reduction gap has been fluctuating; however, total reduction gap is a positive number. It is to say that actual reduction volume is more than potential reduction one. (3) With the shift of time, potential reduction efficiency tends to increase firstly and then decline. (4) During 1982-1990 and 1997-2006, industry is high-pollution, while during 1991-1996, industry is low-pollution correspondingly.