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APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS TO RISK ASSESSMENT IN MEDICINE

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) offer a framework for explicit modeling of temporal relationships, and are useful as both prognostic and diagnostic tools. In medicine, for example, they can assist in planning treatment options or in clinical management of patients. They have been also widely applied to genomics and proteomics. This paper shows how dynamic Bayesian networks can be used in a risk assessment in medicine and presents an example of an application to cervical cancer screening. The model is a convenient tool for assessing the risk of cervical precancer and invasive cervical cancer over time. These quantitative risk assessments are helpful for establishing the optimal timing of follow-up screening and are the first step toward generating individualized reevaluation scheduling.