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[Landscape pattern change and its simulation forecast in Zigui County of Three Gorges Reservoir Area].

Based on the TM images of 1987 and 2002, the landscape pattern change of Zigui County from 1987 to 2002 was analyzed by using landscape index method; and the simulation forecast of this change in next 50 years was conducted by using Markov model. The results showed that in 1987-2002, the landscape pattern of Zigui County changed dramatically. The area of sparse wood land increased greatly while that of upland and shrub land decreased obviously, and the distribution of the areas of different landscape types tended to balance. The average shape index of landscape had an overall decline, which was represented by the concentrated and connected distribution of different landscape types, simplification of landscape shape, and obvious human interference. As a whole, the landscape diversity and fragmentation in Zigui County were improved to some extent. In next 50 years, the area of sparse wood land in Zigui would have a rapid increase, followed by that of forestland, while the areas of upland and shrub land would be declining, and the other landscape types would have a less fluctuation in their areas. The main driving forces of the landscape pattern change in Zigui were the relocation of the County and the implementation of forestry policies.