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Musical Chairs: A 28-Year Study of the Supply and Demand of Orchestra Musicians in America

The recent turmoil and work stoppages in symphony orchestras throughout the United States have called into doubt not only the stability of these organizations, but also the future of the orchestral workforce. In the past, winning a job in an orchestra was considered by many musicians was the definition of a successful career. There are now hundreds of applicants auditioning for every posted orchestral opening, demonstrating a saturation of supply, i.e. musicians. An analysis of students who pursue a music-focused education reveals that graduates with performance degrees in music have been increasing in number over the past 28 years, and are entering a marketplace with a decreasing number of job opportunities. This imbalance of musicians to orchestral jobs has been growing nearly three decades. This report details the data comparison in aggregate, by orchestra group (categorized by budget size) and by instrument family. There are three main conclusions: There is no point of equilibrium, enrollment and graduation rates reversed direction in the mid-1980s and graduate school enrollment is being fueled by instrument-focused performance majors. The supply data is drawn from enrollment and graduation figures compiled by the National Association of Schools of Music for all music-degree granting institutions in United States. The demand data was compiled from the public job listings posted through the American Federation of Musicians for 61 orchestras. This research increases the industry’s understanding of the orchestral job market and contributes to the growing conversation about including classes on entrepreneurship as a component of a postsecondary education focused on music.