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Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments

Abstract In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm complex. The principal goal was to quantify the value added by fine grid spacing, as well as the assimilation of Doppler radar data, in both probabilistic and deterministic frameworks. The present paper focuses exclusively on 3-km horizontal grid spacing ensembles and the associated impacts on the forecast quality of temporal forecast sequencing, the construction of initial perturbations, and data assimilation. As in Part I, the authors employ a modified form of the scaled lagged average forecasting technique and use Stage IV accumulated precipitation estimates for verification. The ensemble mean and spread of accumulated precipitation are found to be similar in structure, mimicking their behavior in global models. Both the assimilation of Doppler radar data and the use of sh...