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Energy production forecasting in a PV plant using transfer function models

This paper deals with the issue of forecasting energy production of a Photo-Voltaic (PV) plant, needed by the Distribution System Operator (DSO) for grid planning. As the energy production of a PV plant is strongly dependent on the environmental conditions, the DSO has difficulties to manage an electrical system with stochastic generation. This implies the need to have a reliable forecasting of the irradiance level for the next day in order to setup the whole distribution network. To this aim, this paper proposes the use of transfer function models. The assessment of quality and accuracy of the proposed method has been conducted on a set of scenarios based on real data.