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A multicriteria framework for producing local, regional, and national insect and disease risk maps

The construction of the 2006 National Insect and Disease Risk Map, compiled by the USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry Area, Forest Health Protection Unit, resulted in the development of a GIS-based, multicriteria approach for insect and disease risk mapping that can account for regional variations in forest health concerns and threats. This risk mapping framework, used by all nine Forest Service regions and 49 States, provides a consistent, repeatable, transparent process through which interactive spatial and temporal risk assessments can be conducted at various levels to aid in decisionmaking. The national framework was designed to be highly iterative, using input from a wide range of sources including subject area experts. The framework consists of a five-step process: (1) identify agents of concern (insects and diseases) and target-host species; (2) identify, rank, and weight criteria that determine the susceptibility (potential for introduction and establishment) and vulnerability (potential for tree mortality to occur if an agent is established) to each agent; (3) standardize criteria values, and combine the resultant maps using a series of weighted overlays; (4) convert modeled values for each agent to predicted basal area (BA) loss over a 15-year period; and (5) identify regions at risk of encountering a 25-percent or greater loss of total basal area in the next 15 years. This potentially interactive threshold was set by the National Risk Map Oversight team for the national risk map product. The National Insect and Disease Risk Map resulted in the integration into a national map of 186 forest insect and disease models, individually run and assembled on a central server located at the Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) in Fort Collins, Colorado. The national framework also enables local knowledge and data to be entered into models, allowing for quick, large-scale assessments. The development of this national framework is described here.