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U.S. Dollar and Determination of the Renminbi Value: Short-Run and Long-Run Approaches

This article examines the importance of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies in determining the renminbi value before and after an announcement of the exchange rate regime change by the People’s Bank of China. Test results reveal a discernible change in the exchange rate regime after the announcement and varying, yet dominant, weights of the U.S. dollar in the specified currency basket during postannouncement periods. Additionally, the presence and magnitude of the U.S. dollar weight in the long run appear to be related to the extent to which the renminbi fluctuates in the short run against the U.S. dollar.