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Quantifying Impact of Climate Change on Watershed Hydrologic Cycle Based on Multi-GCM Model

Single climate model has much uncertainty on quantifying climate change, this paper proposes a new method, reliability ensemble averaging based on Bayesian weighted average (REA-BMA) to calculate the comprehensive climate change and then combines large-scale distributed watershed hydrologic cycling model SWAT to quantifying the effect of future climate change on basin water resources. The data sets from 1961 to 2040 of GCM models (HadCM3, CGCM3, BCCR, CSIRO) and three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B2) are taking for uncertainty analysis and Huntai River basin in China is selected as study case. The results show that the proposed method could efficiently quantify the affect of climate change on watershed hydrologic cycle.