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On the Link between House Prices and House Permits: Asymmetric Evidence from 51
 States of the United States of America

Increased issuance of housing permits is said to move house prices in either
 direction. If perceived as an indication of a growing housing supply, house prices are
 expected to decline (supply hypothesis). However, a larger number of housing permits can
 also reflect positive expectations about future housing demand which would drive house
 prices upwards (demand hypothesis). We test these two competing hypotheses by using data
 from each state in the United States. We estimate linear and non-linear models to test
 if housing permit issuance determines house prices. The results show support for both
 the supply and demand hypotheses in the short run for most states but only for the
 demand hypothesis in the long run. We also uncover asymmetric short run and long-run
 effects in 21 states