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Probabilistic risk assessment for comparative evaluation of security features

A systematic approach for comparing the effectiveness of counterfeit deterrence features in banknotes, credit cards, digital media, etc. was previously presented. That approach built a probabilistic model around the expert identification of the most efficient process by which a counterfeiter can gain sufficient information to replicate a particular feature. We have extended the scope and functionality of that approach to encompass the entire counterfeiting process from the learning phase to the production of counterfeits. The extended approach makes determining the probabilities more straightforward by representing a more detailed model of the counterfeiting process, including many probable counterfeiting scenarios rather than just representing the least costly successful scenario. It uses the counterfeiter's probability of succeeding and level of effort as metrics to perform feature comparisons. As before, these metrics are evaluated for a security feature and presented in a way that facilitates comparison with other security features similarly evaluated. Based on this representation, the cost and laboratory procedures necessary for succeeding may be recovered by a dynamic programming technique. This information may be useful in forensic profiling of potential counterfeiters.