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Russian regional finances analysis and regional debt sustainability

Russian regions recovered financial stability in 2017—2019 due to high ruble commodities prices, improving tax collection and conservative expenditures and borrowings policy. Panel data analysis shows that social-demographic structure of population is one of the key factors of regional budgets balance. Government measures will contribute to sustainability of regional finances and reducing interregional differences in debt sustainability, but provide negative impact of regional fiscal policy on output dynamics in the coming years. Strengthening of fiscal burden via federal taxes will diminish procyclicality of regional budgets revenues, but require a return of full profit tax rate on regional level for compensating lost incomes. For improving borrowing conditions Bank of Russia and regional governments must develop placement of bonds with floating rates, indexed and amortized nominal.