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Model of Operation System's Incidents Forecasting (short paper)

Modeling the operating system incident forecasting subsystem allows obtaining accurate and reliable forecasts. For this purpose, elements of the theory of heuristic self-organization and concrete realization of this theory—GMDH are applied. The data of the system log of OS hardware errors incidents were used as input data of the model. As a result of testing the proposed model based on test samples at different settings of the machine learning system and parameters (the degree of reference polynomial, the number of variables in the model of the characteristic polynomial, the number of selection series) obtained a much more accurate forecast. Thus, in comparison with classical regression methods or the method of exponential smoothing, GMDH gives not more than 4% of erroneous calculations using GMDH.