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Simulation, evaluation, and conflict analysis in urban planning

Recent developments in urban simulation try to avoid failures of earlier models by being more open to changing problems, more aware of the social context of problems, and by paying more attention to user involvement. In this paper, a pragmatic approach is presented which combines dynamic simulation, multiattributive evaluation, and group participation. The approach consists of a combination of a multiperiod, multiregion, dynamic, digital simulation model of urban development with an evaluation model based on the multiattributive utility theory (MAUT). Iterative application of simulation and evaluation to planning alternatives by one or more planners, decision makers or interest groups leads to a learning process about the impacts of plans and the potential conflicts arising from them. The approach has been tested in a number of experimental workshops. It seems possible that the tools and procedures described in this paper form the nucleus of a municipal simulation laboratory. Work of the laboratory might follow two strategies: One would emphasize citizen involvement in group experiments, the other would attempt to simulate urban preference structures in a dynamic simulation model.