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Outliers in Time Series

THE detection of outliers has mainly been considered for single random samples, although some recent work deals also with standard linear models; see, for example, Anscombe (1960) and Kruskal (1960). Essentially similar problems arise in time series (Burman, 1965) but there seems no published work taking into account correlations between successive observations. In the past, the search for outliers in time series has been based on the assumption that the observations are independently and identically normally distributed. This assumption leads to analyses which will be called random sample procedures. Two types of outlier that may occur in a time series are considered in this paper. A Type I outlier corresponds to the situation in which a gross error of observation or recording error affects a single observation. A Type II outlier corresponds to the situation in which a single "innovation" is extreme. This will affect not only the particular observation but also subsequent observations. For the development of tests and the interpretation of outliers, it is necessary to distinguish among the types of outlier likely to be contained in the process. The present approach is based on four possible formulations of the problem: the outliers are all of Type I; the outliers are all of Type II; the outliers are all of the same type but whether they are of Type I or of Type II is not known; and the outliers are a mixture of the two types. Since more practical solutions than those given by likelihood ratio methods are often obtained from simplifications of likelihood ratio criteria, some simpler criteria are derived. These criteria are of the form /&2a, where A is the estimated error in the observation tested and ^ is the estimated standard error of A. Throughout this paper, trend and seasonal components are assumed either negligible or to have been eliminated. The method adopted to remove these components might affect the results in some way.