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Production portfolio optimisation under uncertainty: threats of emissions trading

This study is devoted to profit margin maximisation of heavy industrial companies in Europe which are under the economic and environmental pressure caused by Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The aim of the study is to use an optimisation model maximising a company's total profit margin under uncertainty related to the duty of CO2 emissions trading in order to assess possible threats and impact of emissions trading. Two main factors, which are considered to be uncertain, are the prices of the emission permits and the demand for products of the company. Since the uncertainty is involved in the model, the fuzzy optimisation (level sets approach) is used to face it. The calibration of the model is done using real dataset of a European steel company. Based on the results of the verification, a potential impact of emissions trading on companies, their profit and sustainability, has been discovered.