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Economic Instability, Unemployment Rates, Behavioral Risks, and Mortality Rates in Scotland, 1952–1983

Short-term relations (under five years) between national unemployment and cause-specific mortality rates have been found in several industrialized countries in Europe and North America including the United States and, separately, Scotland and England/Wales. Long-term cumulative relations (at least a decade) have been found between national unemployment and age-adjusted mortality rates for eight countries including England/Wales. In this article it is demonstrated that, controlling for the significant effects of per capita cigarette, spirits, and fat consumption, and cold winter temperatures, there is in Scotland a significant long-term relation (at least a decade) between cumulative change in unemployment rates and mortality rates-for all causes, for total heart disease, and in particular for ischemic heart disease. Also, the exponential trend in real per capita income is related to mortality declines. Other writers have encountered difficulty in measuring this long-term relation between unemployment and cause-specific mortality in Scotland in the absence of controls for at least alcohol and tobacco consumption per capita.