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Bayesian Optimal Release Time Based on Inflection S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model

The inflection S-shaped software reliability growth model (SRGM) proposed by Ohba (1984) is one of the well- known SRGMs. This paper deals with the optimal software release problem with regard to the expected software cost under this model based on the Bayesian approach. To reflect the effect of the learning experience for the updated software system, we consider several improvement factors to adjust the values of parameters characterizing the inflection S-shaped SRGM. Appropriate prior distributions are assumed for such factors and the expected total software cost is formulated. The optimal release time is shown to be finite and uniquely determined. Because of the flexibility of prior distributions, the proposed Bayesian methods may be applied in many different situations. Numerical results are presented on the basis of the real data.