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Prospective validation of virtual design and construction methods

As new virtual design and construction (VDC) methods are developed, researchers and practitioners alike must understand the power of these methods before dedicating effort and resources towards further development or implementation on real projects. One particular aspect of power – external validation – is a challenge in VDC research because of the unique nature of projects and long waiting times for actual data on project performance. With the increased use of VDC in practice, however, prospective validation is an emerging validation method where researchers can test new VDC methods on real projects within a reasonable time frame.
This paper examines how researchers can use prospective validation. It presents a framework for understanding the purpose of prospective validation, an application of prospective validation, and implementation guidelines for researchers utilizing prospective validation. The results show that prospective validation should be used when researchers want to test a new method against an existing method used by practitioners on a real project. Researchers should also want to test whether the new method can be performed within a reasonable time frame and if so, whether the results could influence future project decisions. The implementation guidelines describe the necessary steps in the planning, execution, and analysis of a prospective validation test. More broadly, prospective validation represents a new way in which researchers and practitioners can collaborate that benefits the advancement of science as well as the management of real projects.