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A macroeconometric model for the economy of Lesotho: Policy analysis and implications

This study develops a macroeconometric model for the economy of Lesotho with the view of assessing existing and alternative macroeconomic policies. The model is designed to capture the structural characteristics of the economy while also exploiting the developments in economic theory and statistical analytical tools. It consists of seven sectors, namely, the production sector, the employment sector, the aggregate demand sector, the government sector, the balance of payments sector, the monetary sector and the price sector. The model is estimated using time-series data spanning the period from 1980 to 2000 using the Engle-Granger two-step cointegration technique, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The construction of this model follows the lines of the aggregate supply-aggregate demand framework. The economy is assumed to be demand driven by multiplier effects operating through private consumption and private investment with the prices system ensuring that the economy operates within capacity constraints. It is noteworthy that the level of disaggregation adopted in the model is considered sufficient to explore the necessary policy options and is dictated to a large extent by the availability and quality of data. University of Pretoria etd – Matlanyane, A R (2005)