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The Socio-Economics and Energy Demand – United Kingdom Model (SEED-UK) Understanding the Dynamics, Diversity and Socio-Economics of the UK Domestic Stock

Domestic energy demand is driven by the patterns of 
energy services required in the home as people go about 
their daily lives. Understanding these patterns, both how 
they combine with the physical determinants of energy 
demand, such as the building stock, and how they vary 
amongst our society is important when designing time of 
use tariffs and demand response programs. 
This paper presents the Socio-Economics and Energy 
Demand – United Kingdom (SEED-UK) model, a 
dynamic model of the UK domestic stock. The model is 
built using a bottom-up framework combining both 
statistical and physics based techniques to create daily 
and seasonal electricity and heat demand profiles at a 10 
minute time step as well as estimates of total 
consumption for a series of household types and sizes. 
The model synthesis a number of previously developed 
models and approaches and capitalises on a number of 
large datasets describing the UK population and energy 
demand in the UK which have been summarised and 
linked in order to create probabilistic relationships for 
example between socio-economic groups, appliance sets 
and dwelling type, the ‘technical environment’. The 
dynamics of energy services demand within this 
‘technical environment’ are driven by a simulation of 
household activity which allows electricity, hot water 
and heating demand patterns to be simulated. Model 
performance is evaluated using a dataset which contains 
the gas and electricity demand profiles of 15,000 UK 
domestic customers. 
This paper presents the resulting electricity and heat 
demand profiles which highlight subtle differences 
between the consumption patterns of socio-economic 
groups. Understanding and quantifying these differences 
and the diversity of demand between and within groups 
provides important data for the design of time of use 
tariffs and demand response programs.