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Assessing the Mortality Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida State Prisons

Background The increased risk of COVID-19 infection among incarcerated individuals due to environmental hazards is well known and recent studies have highlighted the higher rates of infection and mortality prisoners in the United States face due to COVID-19. However, the impact of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality rates in incarcerated populations has not been studied. Methods Using data reported by the Florida Department of Corrections on prison populations and mortality events we conducted a retrospective cohort study of all individuals incarcerated in Florida state prisons between 2015 and 2020. We calculated excess deaths by estimating age-specific expected deaths from mortality trends in 2015 through 2019 and taking the difference between observed and expected deaths during the pandemic period. We calculated life table measures using standard demographic techniques and assessed significant yearly changes using bootstrapping. Findings The Florida Department of Corrections reported 510 total deaths from March 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 among the state prison population. This was 42% higher (rate ratio 1.42, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.89) than the expected number of deaths in light of mortality rates for previous years. Reported COVID-19 deaths in a month were positively correlated with estimated excess deaths (80.4%, p <.01). Using age-specific mortality estimates, we found that life expectancy at age 20 declined by 4 years (95% CI 2.06-6.57) between 2019 and 2020 for the Florida prison population. Interpretation The Florida prison population saw a significant increase in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period, leading to a decrease in life expectancy of more than four years. Life years lost by the Florida prison population were likely far greater than those lost by the general United States population, as reported by other studies. This difference in years lost highlights the need for increased interventions to protect vulnerable incarcerated populations during pandemics. Funding Vital Projects Fund, Arnold Ventures, US Centers for Disease Control