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Evaluating the Life Cycles of Education-Supporting Lotteries

This article examines the history of total lottery sales for eleven education-supporting lottery states. Controlling for the influence of multistate games, state income differentials, and unemployment, unbalanced fixed-effects models investigating four measures of lottery sales indicate that nominal lottery sales continue to climb, but sales adjusted for inflation are either falling or soon will. Per capita sales across all states have not grown much beyond the first several years in the lottery life cycles, but per student sales are still rising due to declining school-age populations and purchases of lottery tickets made by other than state residents. Forecasts for real per capita lottery sales are provided for each of the states in the sample through 2030.