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Evil on the Horizon: A Perspective on the Department of State's Role in Securing Man-Portable Air Defense Systems in Syria

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] POLICYMAKERS IN WASHINGTON, far removed from the soldiers and marines fighting for their lives in conflicts half a world away, rarely understand the impact their decisions have on our nation's military men and women. Further, and as many of us know all too well, the complexity of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, combined with myriad transnational challenges, reveals that the military element of power alone is not sufficient to achieve national security objectives. To help remedy the problem, the Command and General Staff College (CGSC) created the Interagency Fellowship Program to familiarize officers with the other elements of national power. One goal of the fellowship, which enables mid-career officers to participate directly in the U.S. interagency process by assigning them to positions within federal departments or agencies, is to improve national security by synchronizing missions, promoting cohesiveness, and ensuring unity of effort with Army and interagency players. (1) During my assignment as an interagency fellow, I served in the Department of State with the Interagency Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) Task Force. MANPADS--often referred to as shoulder-fired missiles--pose a particular threat to both military and civil aviation. In the hands of terrorists, MANPADS could be used to cripple the civil aviation industry in particular and the global economy in general. To prevent such contingencies, the Interagency MANPADS Task Force was constituted in 2007 by order of the Deputies Committee of the National Security Staff. The task force oversees implementation of the International Aviation Threat Reduction Plan and integrates all elements of national power to reduce or eliminate terrorist access to MANPADS and other standoff weapons. The MANPADS Task Force, housed in the Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement of the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at State, reports directly to the National Security Staff and includes representatives from the Department of State, Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Homeland Security, the intelligence community, and others. Even though the mission is globally focused, I spent the lion's share of my time planning for the threat posed by MANPADS falling into the hands of terrorists and other nonstate actors during and after the crisis in Syria. For our purposes, the U.S. planning effort for Syria will provide the lens to examine the unique role played by the State Department within the interagency process, including how the organization functions and works with other players. Before diving in, it is important to put the MANPADS threat in Syria into context. At the time of the Syrian revolution in 2011, Bashar al-Assad's regime had acquired a sizeable inventory of MANPADS, mostly to counter the Israeli air threat. The Assad regime possessed thousands of ex-Soviet SA-7 MANPADS, as well as a significant number of more advanced systems. Beyond regime-held stocks, video and photographic evidence from the civil war in Syria has shown opposition forces, including the al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusrah Front, in possession of a variety of MANPADS acquired from captured government stockpiles or from international donors. (2) Current evidence reveals a multitude of MANPADS already in the hands of terrorists or at risk of being acquired by such groups in Syria. Most disconcerting is that these terrorist organizations may use instability within Syria to acquire more and better MANPADS and ultimately transport them across borders for future terrorist operations. Combined, these facts make MANPADS in Syria an important national security issue for the United States. For future events, it is worthwhile for military planners to examine interagency efforts to secure MANPADS in Syria because by understanding current challenges, future interagency planning will be improved. In particular, it is important to understand-- * How the State Department's unique responsibilities, abilities, and culture influence the process. …