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Recent and future manifestations of a contingent global mean sea level acceleration

Abstract We analyzed globally averaged satellite altimetry mean sea level time series during 1993 – 2018 and their future manifestations for the following 25 years using a kinematic model, which consists of a trend, a contingent uniform acceleration, and a random error model. The analysis of variance results shows that the model explains 71.7% of the total variation in global mean sea level for which 70.6% is by the secular trend, and 1.07% is due to a contingent uniform acceleration. The remaining 28.3% unexplained variation is due to the random errors, which are dominated by a first order autoregressive process driven mostly by oceanic and atmospheric variations over time. These numbers indicate more bumps and jumps for the future manifestations of the global mean sea level anomalies as illustrated using a one-step ahead predictor in this study. Our findings suggest preponderant random errors are poised to further confound and negatively impact the certitude of published estimates of the uniform global sea level acceleration as well as its prediction under an increasingly warmer Earth.