{'fraction_non_alphanumeric': 0.024745269286754003, 'fraction_numerical': 0.0, 'mean_word_length': 5.3119266055045875, 'pattern_counts': {'":': 0, '<': 0, '<?xml version=': 0, '>': 0, 'https://': 0, 'lorem ipsum': 0, 'www.': 0, 'xml': 0}, 'pii_count': 0, 'substrings_counts': 0, 'word_list_counts': {'cursed_substrings.json': 0, 'profanity_word_list.json': 0, 'sexual_word_list.json': 0, 'zh_pornsignals.json': 0}}
Does Dividend Policy Lead the Economy?

We analyze the predictive role of the dividend-payout ratio for future economic activity. The results from both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting analysis show that the dividend-payout ratio is a significant predictor, both in statistical and economic terms, of future economic activity. This effect is particularly strong at intermediate and long horizons, and is robust across three measures of economic activity. Moreover, the dividend payout ratio outperforms several alternative equity and bond predictors in forecasting the economy. These results are consistent with a simple present-value relation for the log dividend-earnings ratio.