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USD Index Equilibrium Study Based on the BEER Model

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the USD index.. Borrowing the BEER model and using cointegration analysis, we find (1) The increase of the foreign exchange reserves, the GDP growth rate and the change of gold price can make the equilibrium USDX appreciation, but the increase of money supply can make the equilibrium USDX depreciation. (2) Although the “equilibrium” USDX tracks the trends in the real USDX quite well, the real USDX has been misaligned several times, while the subprime credit crisis and the following financial tsunami have accelerated its overestimate.