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A prolonged, two-step oxygenation of Earth’s early atmosphere: Support from confidence intervals

The Great Oxidation Event (GOE), among Earth’s most transformative events, marked the sustained presence of oxygen above 10–5 times the present atmospheric level. Estimates of the onset of the GOE span 2501–2225 Ma and are based primarily on the loss of mass-independent fractionation of sulfur isotopes (MIF-S) in pyrite. To better constrain the timing of the GOE, we apply probabilistic techniques to estimate the confidence intervals of four proxies: MIF-S, redox-sensitive detrital minerals, "red beds," and I/(Ca + Mg). These GOE proxies are drawn from a highly fragmentary geologic record, and consequently, estimates of the 95% confidence intervals span tens to hundreds of millions of years—orders of magnitude larger than suggested by radiometric constraints on individual successions. Confidence interval results suggest that red beds and nonzero I/(Ca + Mg) values may have appeared earlier than 2480 Ma and 2460 Ma, respectively, whereas redox-sensitive detrital minerals and MIF-S may have disappeared after 2210 Ma and 2190 Ma, respectively. These data suggest a delay of potentially >300 m.y. between initial and permanent oxygenation of the atmosphere and a delay of tens of millions of years between onset of the Lomagundi-Jatuli carbon isotope excursion and permanent oxygenation of the atmosphere.