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Quasi Poisson Model for Estimating Under-Five Mortality Rate in Small Area

Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) is an important indicator because it reflects the socio-economic conditions and developments in health sector. U5MR is obtained from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) where the level of estimation is designed for national and provincial level. The decentralization system makes the importance of U5MR for sub-domain of province such as district/municipality level. Small area estimation (SAE) can be used for estimating U5MR in district/municipality level by using a mixed model. The model that is often used is generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Direct estimation of U5MR produces a large proportion of zero values (excess zero), so the Poisson model is not suitable for modeling the data. Excess zero is the reason for violating the equidispersion in Poisson model. In this study, quasi Poisson modelproduces better predictions than direct estimation. In addition, the U5MR estimation for municipality makes it possible to produce U5MR maps in municipality level.