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Program impacts on contraceptive distribution and method mix in the Indonesian Family Planning Program: causal modeling with pooled cross-sectional and time series data from East Java.


 This study measures the impacts of family planning program inputs on contraceptive use and mix, by evaluating the time sequence of correlations between program inputs and contraceptive use. Using data from Indonesia's Family Planning Coordinating Board from East Java over 8 quarters from 1983-1985, the authors relate the Kecamatan-specific levels of mobile medical team activities to the number of family planning clinics. Significant correlations exist between contraceptive use and subsequent levels of program inputs, suggesting that the measured correlations contain a significant spurious component. The researchers adjust for this spurious component by subtracting the value of this lead correlation from the remaining coefficients. These results indicate highly significant immediate impacts on both 1) types of inputs on monthly cycles of contraceptives distributed and 2) the numbers of inputs on monthly cycles of contraceptive users. Residual impacts in subsequent quarters are much smaller, although they are generally positive and occasionally significant. Conclusions are 1) mobile medical team visits significantly affect the growth of pill acceptance, and 2) clinics exercise a similar effect on the growth of IUD and injectable acceptance.
