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Title The Great Moderation in the Japanese Economy

This paper examines changing dynamics and sources of volatility of the postwar output growth in Japan. We document two major facts in the postwar Japanese business cycle: (i) the Great Moderation phenomenon in Japan has occurred in the middle of 1970s, but was not persistent with some volatile movements of output from the late 1980s to the beginning of 1990s, and in the late 2000s, and (ii) the correlation between labor input and productivity has been overall negative. To find the source of output and labor input behaviors of the postwar Japanese economy, a time-varying VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities is modeled in line with Gaĺı and Gambetti (2009). We find that technology shocks are responsible for significant changes of the output volatility throughout the total sample period while the volatility of labor input is largely attributed to nontechnology shocks.