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DYNAMICS OF TRUST AMONG ENTITIES IN A MECHANISTIC SIMULATION MODEL: With Research Implications for Public Organizations

We develop a mathematical model describing the dynamics of trust relationships among multiple entities. Those entities may represent individuals, businesses, or political organizations, or a combination of these. We model all reciprocal trust relationships, including self-trust (or internal trust), and examine the interaction of eight primary factors: actual performance, expected performance, variation in both actual and expected performance, tolerance thresholds, cooling period after performance failure, relational influence among organizations, and leadership clout. Exercising the model, we find that each of these factors may have a different impact on the trust dynamics of the system as a whole. Some of the factors lead to system stability and others to system breakdown. Cycles of trust and distrust are observed. These results may have some implications for business and governmental organizations, and we outline some areas of future research that might further advance our understanding of these dynamics.