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Estimating the Effect of Easements on Agricultural Production

Many US crops face higher agricultural risk as growing season temperatures rise, and destructive disasters such as excess precipitation and flooding become commonplace. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) easement programs may offer an adaptation strategy that improve the resilience of agricultural systems. Easements impact agricultural production both directly by reducing planting on marginal land and indirectly by changing flood patterns that improve yields on surrounding cropland. I model the decisionmaking process of the producer and conservation agent to better understand the tradeoffs in the easement process and the implications of easement spillovers. To test the hypotheses of the theoretical model empirically, I use national data on agricultural production and easement programs for the past three decades. I employ a regression model with two-way fixed effects to quantify how easement land share impacts countylevel yields, risk, as well as acres planted, failed, and prevented planted. I find that a 100% increase in land share of wetland easements increases yields by 0.34%, 0.77% and 0.46% for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Soybean crops seem to be the most impacted by easement land share. Wetland easements reduce soybean losses from excess moisture, heat, and disease by $3.59, $6.07 and $11.23 for each dollar of liability. I study the mechanisms through which improved production occurs and find evidence of a slippage effect in which producers reduce soybean and wheat acreage but increase corn production. While some results suggest that easements lead to less failed and prevented planting for soybeans and wheat, I find increases of these types of losses for corn and some cases of higher drought risk. My results have policy implications for future NRCS funding and targeting strategies.