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The global radiation forecasting based on NWP or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice

Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. This article presents a methodology for determining the best method to use, according to a rule related to the spatial resolution, temporal step and location. We propose to compute a parameter noted  constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.