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Simulation of Inner-city Standardized Testing Behavior: Implications for Instructional Evaluation

The study examines possible distortions due to guessing in standardized test scores, focusing particularly on inner-city situations. A practical procedure based on Bayes theorem is presented, for estimating true knowledge levels from observed test scores. Results show test scores to be overstatements of subject mastery, with larger distortions at the lower achievement levels; this suggests that many inner-city programs are being planned and evaluated using data containing large amounts of error.