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Measuring the dynamics of provincial real economies in China

ABSTRACT This paper uses a set of provincial macroeconomic variables and the panel VAR method, which contains cross-sectional dynamic interdepence and time-varying coefficients, to measure the quarterly dynamics of the real economies of Chinese provinces. We find that provincial GDP and industrial value-added series may deliver limited business cycle information and that Chinese provinces have experienced overall divergence and sub-club convergence in recent years.