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A Measurement-Based Modeling Approach for Network-Induced Packet Delay

An approach is presented to capture and model Internet end-to-end packet delay behavior using ARMA and ARIMA models. Autocorrelation (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation (PACF) functions are used to identify the most appropriate model and the model order. Impact due to sending rate and packet size of the probe, and the available link capacity on these two metrics are investigated. Results indicate that the models presented reflect accurately the effect of packet correlation induced by the network. Modeling Inter-Packet Gap (IPG) is an alternative for capturing the effect of the network on a packet stream. A methodology for fitting ARMA and ARIMA models to end-to-end packet delay and IPG series is presented.