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Impact of cloud microphysics on hurricane track forecasts

Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) at operational resolutions (30 and 12 km) reveal significant track sensitivity to cloud microphysical details, rivaling variation seen in the National Hurricane Center's multi‐model consensus forecast. Microphysics appears to directly or indirectly modulate vortex characteristics including size and winds at large radius and possibly other factors involved in hurricane motion. Idealized simulations made at higher (3 km) resolution help isolate the microphysical influence.