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The Rise of China and Its Neighborhood Diplomacy: Implications for Japanese Foreign Policy

Abstract The rise of China is a complex phenomenon, and so are its relationships with the neighboring nations. There is no doubt that its rapid economic growth has generally improved people's living standards and heightened China's international status. It is also certain that this has brought about the basis for the legitimacy of Communist dictatorship as well as basic social stability. However, economic growth seems to have reached a turning point and signs of social instability are increasingly felt. Still, China's growth rate is much higher than other nations. Unless there is political turmoil, China's presence in the region and in the world will continue to increase. It is not difficult to predict that, for fear of the China threat theory, China will try to maintain a cooperative diplomatic posture that emphasizes peaceful development. At the same time, China will continue with its military build-up and will not be conciliatory in the specific conflicts with its neighbors. There is a close linkage between internal politics and external policies, and just like in other countries, the more unstable the domestic situation becomes, the more hardline the diplomatic posture is required to be. Considering such trends in China, Japanese diplomacy needs to decrease the risks and increase the chances by 1) supporting China's indigenous social development and human security, 2) striving to build a democratic regional regime in East Asia, 3) enhancing mutual trust in the area of security while maintaining the alliance with the United States, and 4) promoting dialogue and exchange to increase mutual understanding between the two nations.