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Climate change and water resources in Algeria: vulnerability, impact and adaptation strategy

The climate changes going on for a long time now have ceased to be a scientific curiosity. They constitute the major environmental question which dominates our time and pose the major challenge to environmental organizations of control. Water is one of the most important raw materials in Algeria. Because of its importance, it is essential to know its vulnerability with the climate changes. In Algeria, the vulnerability due to the climate changes is expressed through several aspects: demographic explosion, probable reduction in the water run-offs, scarcity of the resources, the degradation of the hydraulic infrastructures, threats to wetlands, etc. In the face of this situation, Algeria has taken quantitative and qualitative adaptive measures within the framework of durable management of this invaluable resource for the future.


Introduction
Freshwater systems are part of larger ecosystems, which sustain life and all social and economic processes. The provision of freshwater is therefore an ecosystem service which, TOUITOU MOHAMMED, ABUL QUASEM AL-AMIN 412 when disrupted, threatens both the health of ecological systems and human wellbeing, which are in complex interaction (Millennium, 2005). Through the primary medium of water, climate change influences the Earth's ecosystems, people's livelihoods, and general human wellbeing (UN-Water, 2012). Scientists within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expect that the present increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will have direct first-order effects on the global hydrological cycle, with impacts on water availability and demand (Bates et al 2008). These changes will in turn create other higher order effects (Chalecki et al, 1999).
Overall at the global level, a net negative impact on water availability and on the health of freshwater ecosystems is foreseen (Kundzewicz et al, 2007), and thus a cascade of negative consequences is expected to affect social and ecological systems and their processes.
Besides climate, there are other drivers of change, such as increased population pressure, economic development and urbanization trends. These drivers of change are closely linked to each other and pose complex management problems for land and water resources. As populations grow and move to cities and as their income levels increase or decreasetheir demand for water resources changes both spatially and temporally. Taken together, the net effects of these supply and demand changes in areas of increasing population, can translate into increases in the vulnerability of water resources systems, which can create major challenges for future management of water resources for human and ecosystem needs. As stated above, climate change can contribute further to exacerbation of problems, in particular when considering medium to long-term projected impacts. There is therefore a need to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems for enhanced management strategies, also including robust adaptation measures for future sustainable water use.
Vulnerability assessment is not straightforward, in particular because there is no universally accepted concept for vulnerability. For example, Thywissen (2006) lists 35 definitions of the term. The plurality of the definitions leads, as expected, to very diverse assessment frameworks and methods (Cutter, 2001;Brooks et all., 2005;Turner et all., 2003;Luers, 2005;Füssel et all., 2006;Füssel, 2007). Some authors even argue that by principle, vulnerability cannot be measured, as it does not denote observable phenomena (Moss, 2001; while, according to Hinkel (2011), the opportunity arises to make this theoretical concept operational. Indicators can provide the means for doing so and, in particular, make the assessment of vulnerability possible, as we propose herein with the methodological framework for the assessment of the vulnerability of water resources, within the broader context of climate Water resources systems are complex in nature and consist of four inter-linked subsystems: individuals, organizations, society and environment (Simonovic, 2009). As a consequence, management issues should generally consider multiple decisional criteria and large numbers of possible alternatives, usually characterized by high uncertainty, complex interactions, and conflicting interests of multiple stakeholders, but also of a multiplicity of compartments, such as river, land or coastal ecosystems, or different economic sectors (Hyde et al., 2004). Due to this dual complexity (i.e., complexity in vulnerability assessment itself and complexity of water resources management), not many studies of vulnerability assessment of water resources systems have been available to date. The issue of vulnerability was first brought to the attention of policy makers in an international context in the field of water resources management in 1992 at the Dublin Conference (Tessendorff, 1992) (Dublin Principle 1 states that fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment). Later, several studies on the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems were carried out at various geographical scales, e.g., global scale (Vörösmarty et al., 2000), large scale trans-boundary river basin Hamouda et al., 2009), regional scale (Hurd et al., 1999;Sullivan, 2011) and also in small scale watersheds (Pandey et al., 2009;Gober et al., 2010;Pandey et al., 2010;Pandey et al., 2011). A few studies, e.g. (Balica et al., 2009), also include the variation of vulnerability value across different spatial scales, ranging from river basins to urban areas. In some of these studies (Vörösmarty et al., 2000;Hurd et al., 1999;Gober et al., 2010), vulnerability is considered only as a physical component of water resources and these studies focus on water resources availability rather than how society and the ecosystem deal with water (Pandey et al., 2011). Global and largescale studies usually cannot provide the detailed information that is required for appropriate adaptation and management actions (Pandey et al., 2010). Other studies (Hamouda et al., 2009;Pandey et al., 2009;Pandey et al., 2010;Pandey et al., 2011) incorporate important components (i.e. exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) of vulnerability in their assessment, but limited stakeholders' involvement can produce subjective biases and limited credibility. Typically, a dichotomy exists between engineering science approaches and those focused on the human dimension, with the first commonly lacking adequate consideration of stakeholders' involvement as required by the most relevant international references in the field, such as the Dublin Principles (Tessendorff, 1992). (Dublin Principle 2 states that water development and TOUITOU MOHAMMED, ABUL QUASEM AL-AMIN 414 management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy makers at all levels.) Similarly, a society cannot improve without the support of innovative scientific ideas and technical knowledge.
Since the 1990s, the concept of climate change puts debate of water resources and the risks related to them by placing them at the heart of the problem. According to experts, on the horizon of 2020, Algeria will experience rainfall law of reduction of 5 to 13% and a temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.1°C. In this non-distant horizon, Algeria, arid country, will suffer droughts and recursive flooding and water needs will double in volume under pressure from population growth and continued urbanization. The country already knows an accentuation of droughts and thus worsening of desertification, soil salinization, and pollution of surface water and therefore progressive degradation of water resources. Similarly, floods that continue to serve north and south would be greater in frequency especially in spring and autumn (Anonyme,

2009).
Urban issues facing these hydro-climatic risks come in terms of water availability and sanitation, ecological balances and safety of people and property. Thus, in the future, natural phenomena, probably more frequent and stronger will make a more serious impact on both the current socio-economic activities of operating and development in times of crisis can cause real disasters, (Kettab, 2001).
Algeria is Africa's second most water scarce country, after Libya. There are no large rivers in Algeria. The Chéliff River in the coastal plain is the only significant stream, providing some water for irrigation. Water is unevenly spread over the country. While most regions suffer from water shortage, yearly floods can also occur after heavy rains. A challenge to managing Algeria's water resources is the large fluctuations in supply from year to year and in regions.
Large efforts have been made by the state to mobilize water resources by building dams. The problems related to water can be summarized as follows (INRAA pers comm, 2011): -Scarcity and uneven distribution; -Low mobilization; -Low-productivity; -Insufficient management.
Algeria, with its arid and semi-arid climate, is highly vulnerable to climate change with desertification as a major concern. Overall, temperature and evaporative demand is expected to increase for Algeria. The change in future rainfall is however more debated. A small decrease is expected up to 2025, but exact values are unknown. Knowledge about climate change is restricted by a lack of information in general for the region. A recent study by Laborde et al. (2010), however, has shown that even a small decrease in rainfall will have a disproportional large reduction in water availability (runoff) for (northern) Algeria.

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This paper presents the evolution of CO2 emissions and an analysis of the current situation in terms of support for sustainable development and the issue of climate change. We discuss the vulnerability and adaptation strategy of water resources sector to climate changes, as well as the national climate plan and the challenges the country faces.

Evolution of GHG
Since 1950, the emissions of CO2 has been on the increase. In the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Program of the World that helps to improve the understanding of interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere, the amount of CO2 measured at the By comparing the emission per inhabitant, Algeria is among important emitters from developing countries ( Figure 3). In comparison, the average annual global emission of CO2 is 4.7 T/inhab., Qatar 55.4 T inhab., UAE 31.1 T/inhab., U.S. 19.8 T/inhab., France 6.1 T/inhab., Lebanon 20.3 T/inhab, Tunisia 2.4 T/inhab., Morocco 1.5 T/inhab. and India 1.4 T/inhab.
Due to the nature of its activity, the energy sector (production and consumption)the source of highest emissions (about ¾ of the total) ( Figure 4)has the most important potential for mitigation measures. The annual average growth of 2.0% seems to be in line with the increase of the average annual consumption of energy during this period. Thus, with this growth, emissions will increase by 2020 by 40% over the year 2000. In these emissions, the production of electricity increased since 1997 by about 6% / year, accounting for 40% of CO2 emissions.
In 2008, for one $ PPP (purchasing power parity) of GDP, Algeria emitted 0.41 Kg CO2 (Kerbachi, 2011).There is generally a good correlation between living standards and CO2 TOUITOU MOHAMMED, ABUL QUASEM AL-AMIN 416 emissions. This rate shows that the Algerian economy use fossil energies in the process of production and consumption. For example, France uses nuclear energy, the rate rises to 0.2. It also follows that for a tonne of CO2, the wealth generated is two to three times lower than in developed countries. It is also a result of the delocalization of heavy polluting industries to developing countries (Kerbachi, 2011).

Climate change
In its 2007 report, the IPCC combined 25 global climate models to assess the impacts of climate change in 2050 and 2100. In the Mediterranean region, there is forecast a temperature rise by 2-3°C by 2050 and by 3-5°C by 2100. The incidence of rainfall will be less frequent but more intense, while droughts more common and longer. The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation would change, which will directly affect agriculture and water resources.
Regional models with the IPCC scenarios applied to Algeria for the period 1990-2020 forecast growth in the average temperature by 0.6°C to 1.1°C and reduced precipitation by 10% (Figures 4,5) with an increase in the sea level of 5 to 10 cm. Increased evaporation and decreased

Vulnerability to climate change in Algeria
The major vulnerability of the country is observed in the areas of water and agriculture.
Algeria is a semi-arid to arid north to south. Water availability per capita is 600 m3/inhab./an.,

Vulnerability of water resources to climate change in Algeria
The climate changes which have been going on for a long time now have ceased to be a scientific curiosity. They make a major environmental issue that has dominated our era and pose a major challenge that environmental control agencies must meet nowadays.
Water, one of the most important raw materials in Algeria, including its importance for human consumption, food production, industry, transport, recreation and ecosystems has become the focal point. Because of its importance, it is essential to know its vulnerability to climate change in Algeria (Bouziani, 2006).
However, climate variations are not the only factors defining vulnerability of this resource to climate change; the economic, demographic and environmental factors are also criteria to consider. The reaction of water users as well as the management mechanisms of this resource are determining the vulnerability of the resource in Algeria to a large extent (Bouziani, 2006). In Algeria, the vulnerability to climate change is expressed through several aspects:

Resource scarcity
Algeria is qualified, like the other 17 African countries affected by water stress, in the category of the poorest countries in terms of water potential, as water is below the theoretical scarcity threshold set by the World Bank in 1000 m3 per capita per year. If in 1962, the theoretical availability of water per capita per year was 1500 m3, it was only 720 m3 in 1990, 680 m3 in 1995, 630 m3 in 1998, 500 m3 now and it will be only 430 m3 in 2020, i.e. the availability of drinking water in Algeria in m³ / inhabitant / year will slightly exceed the threshold of 400 m3 / ha.

Demand for permanent growth
The demand for drinking water, agricultural water and industrial water is growing, generated by a demographic and industrial development ever increasing.

The likely reduction in water flows
Given the highlands and the Saharan regions that occupy a large part of the national territory (93%), it receives only 10% of the total flow in Algeria, valued at 12.4 billion m3.

Evaporation of surface water
Due to evaporation of the surface water, there is an increased demand in groundwater.
The vulnerability of surface water can also result in an increase in temperature to their warming thereby reducing their ability to biodegrade certain pollutants resulting in a decrease in quality.

The deterioration of water infrastructure
This deterioration is due to the frequent lack of vegetative cover of watersheds. Rapid deterioration of water infrastructure seen releases of original urban industrial pollution and poor quality technical management of the works causes huge losses of water.

Threats to wetlands
Despite their importance in vital processes and the fosterling of fish and birds, there are many threats to these areas, in consequence of excessive pumping and thoughtless dams that drain the benefit of agriculture. The drying up of two large wetlands, which took a little over a century, in this case Fetzara Lake in Annaba and Halloula Lake in Tipaza has led to the disappearance of 7 or 8 species of birds nested there.

Impact of climate change on water resources in Algeria Climate Change, an aggravating factor
Data relating to the climate, collected in the Maghreb region during the 20th century, indicate a warming during this century estimated at more than 1°C with a pronounced trend in the last thirty years, general circulation models converge to estimate a probable warming of the region by about 2 to 4°C during the 21st century. By its geographical location within the arid and semi-arid area, Algeria is subject to physical conditions and unfavourable hydro weather, accentuated by periods of chronic drought. Algeria is highly sensitive to climate, especially in the highlands and the steppes that cover approximately 60% of viable land in the North. The climate changing is inevitable and it will result in significant impacts, including those related to increased temperatures and rainfall, to water resource scarcity and increased frequency of storms. Other impacts are studied: the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems, the increased risk of famine, population movements and the effects on health, (Bolin, 1980).

The impacts on surface runoff
The Intense drought and persistent observed in Algeria during the last 30 years is characterized by a rainfall deficit estimated at 30% (50% during the year 2001-2002), had a negative impact on flow regimes watercourses, causing serious consequences for all socioeconomic activities of the country.

Changes affecting the dam waters
Changes affecting the retention of surface water are due to due to siltation and reduced runoff (Kadi, 1997). Siltation is connected with the nature and morphology of the steep terrain, fragile vegetation cover, lack of afforestation and urbanization upstream dams which generate

Changes affecting groundwater
Reduced rainfall due to drought raging since the early 1970s led to a steady decline in groundwater reserves of major aquifers in the north. In many plains of the country, the groundwater level has dropped at an alarming rate (> 20 m.). Worsening droughts coupled with the overexploitation of groundwater has resulted in mineralization of unsaturated zones of deep aquifers in semi-arid regions such as the plateau of Oran and the high western plains. The average rate of use of groundwater is 79% in the Northern region; it can sometimes reach and exceed 90% in some areas. In coastal areas, the decrease in hydrostatic pressure levels has already resulted in the penetration of sea water into fresh water supplies of coastal aquifers regions of Mitidja, Oran, Terga and Annaba.

The Impact of climate change on irrigation
Recent climatic fluctuations and drought, more frequent over the past three decades have accentuated the phenomenon of soil degradation, thus causing desertification in vulnerable areas, such as steppes and high plains. The current trend to more intense floods could lead to erosion and degradation of a larger portion of land. These lands are real agricultural potential and must ensure the country's food security and protection of the coastal strip (Arrus, 2006).
Water resources are essential to food production. Of the 150 000 ha of irrigated area, 43,000 ha of it was actually not irrigated until in 2007, due to drought and the re-allocation of irrigation water to the drinking water supply for people, especially in the west of the country.

The Impact of climate change on sanitation
Climate change has implications for public health, which is the reason for the efforts made in sanitation. The invoice outbreaks of MTH (water-borne disease) are heavy for the Algerian state. The cost of these outbreaks has been estimated at the equivalent of the construction budget of more than a dozen water treatment stations. The main factor of these diseases lies in the lack of water resources combined with the absence of treatment of certain

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water sources. The sanitation specialists are trying to better understand the links between climate change and sanitation, including health issues and hygiene.

Flood risk
Based on scientific studies, experts estimate that torrential rain and storms like those that have ravaged parts of Bab El Oued, Ghardaia and Bechar will become more frequent. We must expect the accentuation of these weather events, which will be increasingly violent and dangerous.

Strategy of Adaptation
In Algeria, adaptation practices are already used as increases in drought events, flood and abnormal air temperature occur continuously. These actions must be integrated into an overall adaptation policy of the country because of the fact that adaptation initiatives taken in this area will have important implications in many other sectors (Agoumi, 2003).

The main quantitative, qualitative and management measures have been taken by
Algeria and those being developed can be described as follows: Until now, the water supply side has received a lot of attention in the country. The Ministry of water resources make strong efforts to mobilize water resources to increase water supply, by constructing new dams and installing new wells. The environment has not been high on the political agenda of the Ministry. Now, with the commitment to reach the Millennium Goals and the land and water degradation the country is facing, the need for a sustainable development is acknowledged.
The demand side, i.e. the reduction of water use, is now increasingly receiving attention. This process has been started by implementing more efficient irrigation methods, the use of treated waste water in agriculture, and more progressive water pricing.

The National Climate Plan
The National Climate Plan (NCP), which is in final discussion before being finally adopted by the authorities, outlines the various vulnerabilities of Algeria. The NCP is part of the vision of Rio + 20 and contributes to the global effort against climate change and sustainable development of the country. It defines the outlines of the overall strategy to be adopted taking into account the reality of the country and its priorities. The NCP offers among others: -To identify the impacts of climate change on the economy and society; -To propose a strategy to address against the CC and decline this strategy into a coherent set of actions and measures for adaptation and mitigation priority will be translated at operational level, indicators, achievements, and that into action plans for fields and periods; -To identify the terms and conditions of their implementation as well as of monitoring and evaluation; -To improve access to public and private international finance and promote technological and financial foreign partnership.
In the operational part, NCP offers a coherent set of actions in the short, medium and long term that are based on existing sectorial policies and on international best practices and ensure the integration of the problem of climate change in the Algerian economy and society. for the water sector, as well as irrigation goals for agriculture.

Conclusion
The strategic dimension and vital role of water characterized by scarcity and shortage imposes a maximum mobilization policy and the rational exploitation of this resource. The challenges in this area are related to security of the population and economy of the country, which is important to provide as it is true that water security is closely linked to economic security, health and environmental and, in particular, food security. The ongoing changes in the climate and the unforeseeable future in this respect will make water management more difficult.
Taking immediate actions to adapt the sector to climate change will be much less costly than the damage resulting from this phenomenon. Regarding the effects for which projections are reliable enough, adaptation must therefore start now. Algeria has a good chance of a successful struggle against the change climate provided that certain conditions are met, such as formation of qualified human capabilities, integration of all the possibilities existing today, good coordination and good governance.