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Estimation of Electric Vehicles in Dynamic Environment

The market of electric and hybrid vehicles is still small compared to the market of combustion vehicles. However, this is an ever-expanding market. This paper aims to model the increase in electrical vehicles market in Brazil, which could help the electrical demand forecasting for electricity distribution utilities. The System Dynamics and the Bass Diffusion Model are used to represent the proposed system of the electrical vehicle market, first with a qualitative and then with a quantitative model. Three scenarios are simulated to test and validate it. The results show that the methodology used in this paper is adequate to model the system using different nature parameters, such as behavioral, strategic and economic.