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Diagnoses the Causes of Cost Deviation in Iraqi Construction Projects

Article history: Received 25 April 2021 Accepted 20 July 2021 There are challenges with cost deviation and time overruns in every project in the building sector, whether they're residential projects, infrastructure projects, or anything else. The study aims to find the most important causes of cost deviation in a construction project. The researcher depends on Root Cause Techniques. These techniques are a good choice for diagnosing the root causes of cost deviation in a construction project. Many roots cause analysis tools have emerged from the literature as generic standards for identifying root causes such as the Fishbone Diagram, Pareto Chart, and the Five-Why techniques. This study diagnosed nineteen causes of cost deviation in the selected project (Dar AlNahrain building), These causes can be classified into three categories (planning causes, designing causes, and execution causes). According to Pareto analysis, the most important reasons for cost deviation are 10 out of nineteen causes. According to the Pareto chart above, the designing causes group (C2) and the planning cause group (C1) are responsible for 80% of the problem. As a result, focusing on these two major causes will solve 80% of the problem's project deviation in building projects. The results were filtered using the 5-Why analysis, which concluded that the project's cost deviation was due to insufficient project information, which is the root cause for the planning causes group, unclear owner requirements for the designing causes group, and changes in orders for the execution causes group


Introduction
A construction project will be successful if its technical objectives are combined with its budget and if it is not exceeded, as a result, it is hard to imagine a building project being finished without cost variations and time overruns, which can occur at any step of the process, including design, planning, and execution, due to a range of variables such as bad management, control, and supervision. As a result, the main cause of cost variance is the application of traditional cost estimation methods or formulas. A list of problems appears during the selection of project criteria and their proper evaluation.:: [1]and [2]: 1. The lack of modern and advanced means of estimating the project cost.
2. The lack of an integrated database for the project 3. Not using engineering alternatives in the planning, design, and implementation stages, and as a result of what was mentioned above, in addition to many reasons related to unstable construction conditions. Most construction projects include a distinct set of tasks that must be completed in order to produce a distinct product. New buildings and structures, additions, adjustments, conversions, expansions, reconstruction, renovations, significant replacements, and mechanical and electrical installations are all examples of construction projects. Controlling costs and timeliness is critical in the construction business to ensure that projects are finished on time and on a budget [3] .
Generally, the success of a construction project is judged by the project's capacity to meet the client's objectives for cost, schedule, safety, resource allocation, and quality. In (2001), Kagioglou, Cooper, and Aouad [4], confirm that a successful project is one that has met its technical objectives, stayed on schedule, and stayed within budgetary constraints. According to Rahman et al. (2012) support the idea that on-time and on-budget performance is the most important criterion for a project's success.
In (2010), Olawale and Sun [5], showing that the construction sector as a whole has been considered as having poor performance, which has resulted in an inability to achieve efficient cost performance. As a result, most construction projects confront significant cost variance.
In (2013), Ameh, Soyingbe, and Odusami [6], explain that the history of the construction business worldwide is littered with projects that were finished with large cost overruns.
In (2016), Faiq and Reem [2], follow up of cost control in Iraqi highway projects was investigated. The survey includes an examination and analysis of the reality of cost planning and control, as well as the causes of building cost deviations that arise over the course of work. Personal interviews and surveys were conducted with project manager, as well as a study of existing research, were used to investigate and collect data on the causes of cost deviation.
In Iraq, the construction sector encountered a number of challenges and issues that prevented project management approaches from being used in construction projects. In this study, the author attempted to employ a variety of novel methods for identifying problems and impediments in building projects before making ideas for a simple application for one of the project management approaches [7].
Because the scheduling of critical decisions can have a major impact on costs, it's important to identify elements that influence overall project costs early on. Based on an analysis of data from several projects, this report reveals major cost-influencing aspects. From planning to operation, the database for that study contained information on project details, building specifications, dimensions, and costs at different phases of the project life cycle. [8].
In (2020), Mustafa, and Sedqi [9], explain that Many infrastructure projects suffering from corruption elements during the contractor selection phase. To diagnose the project cost deviation, root cause analysis methodologies such as Fishbone, Pareto chart, and Five-Why were utilized.
Based on a survey of the literature and some discussions with project managers, the research problems are stated as follows: ➢ A lack of documentation of past project cost records, as well as a lack of data on construction project management. ➢ Because of currently available techniques are ineffective and have various drawbacks, such as being outdated, old, slow, and uncertain, there is a defect in the cost estimation of construction projects. Aside from the need for modern, efficient cost estimating procedures that offer a variety of benefits such as being innovative, fast, efficient, flexible, and simple to use, there is also a demand for modern, efficient cost estimating approaches. As a result, as a modern method in the construction business, root cause analysis methodologies must be used to assure successful management. Despite the necessity for public infrastructure construction projects in the current decade, projects are being awarded to project managers that lack the necessary information.
Significant research described as follows: • The cost deviation for construction projects is highlighted in this study and find the correct ways to reduce this deviation. • It gives project managers and planners a better understanding of the situation they face and how to overcome and remove them when using the cost management strategy for construction projects.
The study was restricted to the following parameters: • Time limitations: data collection began in 2020. • Spatial limits: This research focused on the Dar Al-Nahrain printing project in the Iraq Republic. • To achieve the study's objective, research use a three-step methodology: • The "literature Review. • • Questionnaire survey and individual interviews with building project engineers with specialist knowledge, as described in "reference [2] • Using "Statistical Analysis Finally, the primary goals of this research are to identify and diagnose the reasons of cost variance in construction projects through multiple groups (the planning causes, design causes, and execution causes), and to quantify the relative importance "RI" of each cause., and finding out realistic solutions that reduce cost deviation the project.

Methodology
In this study, the researcher used statistical analysis and identified the most affecting factors on cost deviation of the project construction.
The first part of the questionnaire related to the personal information of the respondents about his scientific and expertise and the institution in which he works. Then, Open the questionnaires are free-form survey questions that allow respondents to respond in open text style, allowing them to react based on their full knowledge and understanding. [10].
In the work sector, a questionnaire was distributed to specialized engineers and engineering experts in a construction project. level of percentage 100 percent is shown in Figure     The researcher follows up the same procedure by Al-Zwainy and Neran [11],and Nidal [12]who they diagnosed the causes of projects deviation by selecting a number of factors that had been identified through previous studies and the sources that have been found, and accordingly, these interviews were conducted for the purpose of taking the opinion of experts to know the extent of the importance of each factor on the construction project. Finally, A list of factors that influence the project's cost was prepared. The methodology can be summarized in Figure (4). The second part of the questionnaire consists of nineteen causes, from this part, the researcher has identified the most influential factors on the selected project (Dar Al-Nahrain building) in Iraq, as shown in Table (1) and by using statistical analysis techniques, compute the weight of secondary causes, relative important index (RI %) and Rank.
After that, the reasons for the cost deviation were divided into three groups, which are in the planning, design, and implementation stage.

Concept of root cause analysis
The "Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is a method that is used to a dress a problem or nonconformance, in order to get the "root cause" for the problem [13]. RCA is a popular technology and is often used to help people answer the why question. RCA seeks to identify the origin of the problem by using a specific set of related steps in order to find the main cause of the problem. The works of this technique can be summarized as shown in Figure (5). This technology has the potential to be applicable not only to engineering but also to other disciplines [14]; [15]. This method can be used to resolve problems when the "root cause" of the issue cannot be reached. RCA is used to eliminate or mitigate the cause of the problem and prevent it from repeating. RCA is simply a collection of well-known techniques that can be used to produce a structured, quantitative, and documented approach to defining, understanding, and resolving the fundamental causes of project cost deviation [14]. Root cause analysis is more than just a phrase; it is a formal and well-structured methodology that is used as part of a total quality management approach [16]. The study included investigating, evaluating, controlling costs, and determining the causes that lead to cost deviation [17].

Fishbone diagram
These techniques are known as Ishikawa diagrams, cause and effect analysis, or "Fishbone Diagrams" because the final diagram resembles a fish's skeleton [14]. The cause and effect diagram are a method for examining the reasons for a problem in a systematic manner. This tool is often used after performing a Pareto analysis or brainstorming to arrange the resulting ideas [17]. This type of graph is used to identify all the causes that contribute to the occurrence of the problem and thus find solutions

Pareto Chart
The Pareto principle, introduced in the 9th century by the Italian economist scientist Pareto, is used to focus on the most critical problems, Philfredo Barreto, which shows that a small number of factors causing the problem represent a large proportion of the total cases (such as complaints, defects, and problems), that is, the classification of cases according to the degree of importance and concentrate on resolving the most relevant problem while ignoring those of less importance [18].

Five-Why technique
It is one of many brainstorming approaches that involves continually asking "why" five times to assist find the fundamental reason of a problem. When a problem is repeatedly questioned, a new solution appears each time, which is linked to the root cause. However, the question of why can be continued until an acceptable solution is found. The number five is chosen at random. The theory goes that if you question "why" five times, you'll eventually find the core cause [19].

Using "Root Causes', to determine the cause of cost deviation in a construction project.
In order for the researcher to obtain the root causes that lead to cost deviation in construction projects, The weight of each reason was calculated using a survey analysis method, and these reasons are very essential in root cause analysis.
In this paper, the researcher relied on a literature review, questionnaire, and personal interviews with experts. The causes of cost variance in the Dar Al-Nahrain building project have been determined for various categories (planning causes, designing causes, and executing causes). as it is shown in Table 1. below:

Secondary planning causes analysis
The researcher found that the planning reasons (C1) consist of (6) causes which are arranged in " Table 1. and Table 2." with mentioning the weights (note: the weights represent the results of the field survey) in addition to the relative importance and arrangement of each factor within the planning group. Figure (6) and Figure (7) show the Fishbone diagram and Pareto diagram for planning causes. We note from the Pareto chart, that the most influential reason is insufficient information about the project (C14), Poor contract administration (C13), the contracting type's incompatibility with the project type (C16), and the implementation method is not appropriate with the project type (C15). These causes are responsible for (70%) of the deviation of the cost of the project so that we must be focus is on the percentage (70%) to solve the problems related to planning reasons.

Secondary designing causes analysis
The design group (C2) consists of 4 causes arranged in Table 1 and Table 3 showing the weights and relative importance and the arrangement of each factor in the design group. Figure (8) shows "Fishbone Diagram" and Figure (9) shows "Pareto Chart". The researcher concluded from the Pareto diagram the mistakes in design documents (C23), design changes (C22), and unrealistic tender cost estimation (C24) are responsible for (68%) of the deviation of the project cost. so that, focusing on these problems (68%) will lead to solving the problem of cost deviation in the project.

"Secondary execution causes analysis
The group of reasons for implementation (C3) consists of (11) reasons referred to in Table  1. and Table 4. showing the weights for each reason and their arrangement within the implementation group. Figure (10) shows "Fishbone Diagram" and the Figure (11) shows "Pareto Chart" to analyze the group of reasons for execution. The researcher observed through the Pareto chart that the most influential reason is issues of imported materials and restrictions (C34), failure to agree and conflict management (C33) frequent breakdowns of construction equipment (C36), Changes in orders (C32), Finally, site incidents and delays due to lack of safety measures (C31)which constitute a percentage (68%) responsible for the deviation of the cost of the project, so that we must focus is on the percentage (68%) to solve the problems related to execution causes.

Analysis of main causes
As explained previously, the main causes of cost deviation have been divided into three groups in projects (C1, C2, and C3) with secondary causes in each group. Table 5. Shows each of the average weights, relative importance and ranking for main causes. From Table 5., we note that the highest average weight is the group of design causes, followed by the group of planning causes, and finally the group of execution causes. Figures (12) and (13) shown "Fishbone Diagram" and "Pareto chart" for main group's analysis, respectively. According to the Pareto chart above, the designing causes group (C2) and the planning causes group (C1) are responsible for 80% of the problem. As a result, by focusing on these two main causes, (80% of the project deviation problem would be solved in the construction projects as shown in Figure (12).

Using the 5-Why technique
This approach is one of the simplest tools, and it is easy to execute without the use of statistical analysis. The researcher used the 5-Why method to obtain the main causes of cost variance in construction projects and to solve problems.
[20]. The number five is chosen at random. The theory goes that if you ask "why" five times, you'll eventually find the root cause. The 5 Why method is often used during the analysis phase in coordination with other analysis tools such as the Cause-and-Effect Diagram but can be used as a stand-alone tool. Sometimes we can get to the main cause of a problem by means of "3 or 4 Whys" .5 Why is it more effective when the answers are from people who have practical experience in the problem that is being addressed by repeating the question "why" (5), enabling us to reach the root cause of the problem. Figure (13) shown the technique of 5-Whys.

Analysis of "5 Whys" for secondary designing causes
With reference to what has been mentioned previously, Figure (15) showed the analysis of "4 causes" for designing causes. Therefore, we found the root cause of the deviation in this group among the causes of secondary designing causes according to the "5 Whys" analysis is the unclear owner requirements.   (16) showed the analysis of "5 whys" for execution causes. Therefore, we found the root cause of deviation in this group among the causes of secondary execution according to the "5 Whys" analysis is changes in orders. Finally, for all secondary (planning, designing, and execution) groups, a 5-Why analysis was performed on the obtained results from the 5-Why analysis. This process is depicted in detail in Figure (17). According to the final 5-Why analysis, the root cause of the deviation in construction projects is "Owner requirements unclear". The study results were defined and diagnosed in general nineteen causes in project under the planning with six causes, designing with four causes and execution groups with nine causes; however, according to Pareto's analysis showed that only ten of the causes were the most important. The major causes concentrated in the designing and planning group.

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The results filtered by using the Five-Whys analysis; This study concludes that the cost deviation in the project was due to insufficient project information, which is the main cause (root cause) for the planning group, while unclear owner requirements are the root cause for the designing group, and changes in orders are the main root cause for the execution group.