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Stochastic model for settlement: footings on cohesionless soil

In this paper, given an estimate of the bearing capacity of the soil, by treating settlement at a given load as a random variable and the evolution of settlement of footing on cohesionless soil with the increasing load as a stochastic process, a tri-level homogeneous Markov chain (TLHMC) model is proposed for prediction of settlement. Comparison of the predicted mean and bounds on settlements, obtained using TLHMC, with the respective field values obtained from literature shows that the stochastic evolution can be modelled using TLHMC with a correlation coefficient of 0.90. A methodology for reliability-based design of footings is also presented and its use is demonstrated through a numerical example.