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The politics of policy stability: explaining the levels of volatility in economic policymaking in Argentina and Brazil between 1990 and 2010

ABSTRACT This article will examine economic policy stability in Argentina and Brazil, where by “policy stability” I refer to “the level of fluctuation in policies”. Countries in which policies change frequently would be characterized as having low policy stability, whereas countries which maintain a consistent set of laws over a long period of time would be deemed to have high policy stability. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, whereas Brazil demonstrated a very high degree of policy stability, Argentina was characterized by highly volatile, constantly fluctuating economic policies. I analyze two root causes of this divergence in policy stability between these countries: the strength of institutions of horizontal accountability, and the levels of fragmentation in the party systems. I will show in this article that the higher levels of policy stability in Brazil were the result of: a) a stronger congress and judiciary (these institutions were considerably weaker in Argentina); and b) a significantly more fragmented party system (the party system was less fragmented in Argentina). After linking these two independent variables to policy stability on a theoretical level, I will use a case study to illustrate this correlation, namely pension reform.