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Modelling the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in emerging market countries using prior information

In recent years, central banks in emerging market and transition economies (EMCs) have devoted considerable resources to developing macroeconometric models of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy (MTM). Arguably the most important reason for this is that central banks are increasingly gearing monetary policy directly towards achieving their ultimate goal of price stability in some cases through the adoption of explicit inflation targeting rather than indirectly through the use of nominal exchange rate objectives. To bolster efforts to implement a broad-based strategy with flexible exchange rates, it is desirable for policymakers to have a firm sense of the size, lag and duration of the effect of interest rate changes on inflation and macroeconomic conditions more broadly. By contrast, under fixed exchange rates, the setting of interest rates is determined by the need to maintain exchange rate stability. Knowledge of the transmission mechanism is always desirable, but in this case it is not strictly needed.