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The Long-Run Equity Risk Premium

Peter Bernstein's "points of inflection" raise some important issues about research, indexing, benchmarking, and the "long-only" constraint. Underlying these inflection points is the question of how the equity market will perform in the future. Historically, the equity market has returned almost 7 percent a year after inflation, but based on various assumptions, the future return looks to be more in the 5–6 percent range. Nonetheless, equities should still offer a reasonable risk premium over bonds.