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Do Crime Rates Spike After a Democrat is Elected President?

The authors examine state-level violent and property crime rates (as well as rates for murder, rape, and burglary) across all 50 states (including the District of Columbia) and within the four Census regions one year before and after U.S. presidential elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Violent and property crime rates in all states decreased significantly after Barack Obama’s (a Democrat’s) election in 2008 and re-election in 2012. Murder rates decreased significantly after both election years and burglary rates decreased significantly after 2012. Property crime rates also decreased significantly the year after Donald J. Trump’s (a Republican’s) election in 2016. But, rape rates were significantly higher in all states and murder rates were significantly higher in the West.


Introduction
During the 2020 presidential campaign, then-President Donald J. Trump, along with several other prominent Republicans, warned that crime rates would spike if Joe Biden, and Democrats in general, were elected that November. At the Republican National Convention, then-Vice President Mike Pence proclaimed: "The hard truth is you will not be safe in Joe Biden's America" [1]. Since the election of Joe Biden, should Americans expect an increase in crime? Is there a link between Democratic leaders and increased crime?
In 2006, M. R. Hagerty [2] analyzed vote shares by state in U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 1996. The author shows that changes in crime rates during the incumbent's term before an election influence vote shares, but no attention was accorded to how crime rates changed in the year after presidential elections.
In 2016, the Brennan Center for Justice weighed in on then-presidential candidate Donald Trump's statement that "[d]ecades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed." The Brennan Center for Justice cited a recent in-house study by Grawert and Cullen of overall crime rates and murder in America's 30 largest cities from 2014 to 2015. The authors concluded that crime overall remained roughly the same as in 2014, decreasing by 0.1 percent across cities. Murder rates rose, but three cities (Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C.) accounted for more than half of the national increase in murders [3].
Previous research has primarily examined year-to-year changes in crime rates and has not focused on the years before and after presidential elections with an eye on which political party took control of the White House. This paper will compare crime rates across all states and the four Census regions one year before and after each of the three presidential elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016.

The Data
Aggregated crime rates (per 100,000 people) against persons (also known as violent crimes) and property, as well as the specific rates defined for murders, rapes, and burglaries, reported by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) The definition of rape was revised in 2013 when the legal standard that constitutes rape became more expansive to include a larger range of victims and situations [5]. Comparisons involving rape crime rates for the 2008 and 2012 elections use the FBI's "rape_legacy" rate (the old definition) while comparisons in the year before and after the election in 2016 use the FBI's "rape_revised" (the updated definition).

Methodology
To test whether or not crime rates changed from the year before to the year after the presidential elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we ran a series of paired t-tests involving all 50 states (including the District of Columbia) and the four Census regions. These t-tests compared (i) average violent crime rates (aggregated over all types of violent crimes including murder and negligent homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) and (ii) average property crime rates (aggregated over all types of property crimes including burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft). We then ran a series of paired t-tests on three specific types of crimes: (i) murder, (ii) rape, and (iii) burglary. Our null hypothesis is that the average crime rate in the year preceding the election is equal to the corresponding average crime rate in the year following the election. Under a two-tailed alternative, the two averages are not equal, although Republicans might argue that the average crime rate one year after the election would be higher if a Democrat is elected president and lower if a Republican is elected president.

The Results
Volume 10 Issue 4 (2021) ISSN: 2167-1907 www.JSR.org  Table 2 shows that in the year following President Obama's re-election in 2012, crime rates for all 50 states (both violent and property) fell significantly (compared to the year before his re-election). Among the Census regions, the decrease was significant for both crimes against persons and property in the South and Northeast (but only for property crimes in the Midwest).  Table 3 shows that in the year following President Trump's (a Republican's) election in 2016, property crime rates fell across all 50 states (including the District of Columbia), with notable decreases in the Northeast and South. Surprisingly, average violent crime rates not only edged higher (albeit not discernably), but they actually increased significantly in the Midwest. When we examined three specific types of crime (two violent and one property), in the years before and after President Obama's election in 2008, Tables 4 and 5 show significant decreases in murder (across all 50 states, especially in the South) and significant decreases in rape in the South. In the years before and after his re-election in 2012, we observe significant decreases in murder in all states (especially in the South) and burglary (in all regions but the West). We note that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won six of thirteen states in the West that year.
Volume 10 Issue 4 (2021) ISSN: 2167-1907 www.JSR.org Table 6 shows that in the years before and after President Trump's election in 2016, we observe significant decreases in burglary across all states (in all regions but the West), but increases in rape across all 50 states (especially in the Midwest) and significant increases in murder in the West.

Concluding Remarks
Neither violent nor property crime rates increased the year after Barack Obama (a Democrat) was elected and reelected; in many cases, the crime rate decreases were statistically significant. By contrast, although property crimes in general (burglary, in particular) decreased after Donald Trump (a Republican) was elected in 2016, violent crime rates edged higher, rape increased across all states (notably in the Midwest) and so too did murder in the West.