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Enhancement of inland penetration of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal due to prestorm ground wetness

Observations of 408 monsoon low‐pressure systems (MLPSs) including 196 monsoon depressions (MDs) that formed in the Bay of Bengal during the 1951–2007 period, and the gridded analysis of daily rainfall fields for the same period, were used to identify the association of antecedent rainfall (1 week average rainfall prior to the genesis of MLPS) with the genesis of MLPS and length of inland penetration by MDs. Prestorm rainfall is treated as a surrogate to prestorm ground wetness conditions due to unavailability of historical soil‐moisture data over the monsoon region. These observations were analyzed using self‐organizing maps (SOMs) to group nine different prestorm monsoon rainfall patterns into different transition states like active, active‐to‐break, break‐to‐active, break, etc. The analysis indicates that MLPS are four times more likely to form on a day during active monsoon state compared to break state. Analysis of MLPSs linked to each monsoon state represented by SOM nodes shows that MDs with higher inland penetration were associated with higher antecedent rainfall. On the other hand, there was no significant difference in low‐level atmospheric circulation for MDs with shortest and longest inland penetration.