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Alcohol abstinence in patients surviving an episode of alcoholic hepatitis: Prediction and impact on long‐term survival

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is the most severe form of alcoholic liver disease. Most studies have focused on short‐term prognosis, whereas factors associated with long‐term survival are largely unknown. The aims of our study were to (1) determine the impact of complete abstinence from alcohol on long‐term survival and (2) identify prognostic factors at admission capable of predicting abstinence during long‐term follow‐up in patients with AH. One hundred forty‐two patients with biopsy‐proven AH that survived the first episode were included. Demographic, psychiatric, and biochemical variables at admission and drinking status during follow‐up were obtained. Cox regression, logistic regression, and classification and regression trees (CART) analyses were used for statistical analysis. Overall mortality was 38% with a median follow‐up of 55 months. During follow‐up, complete abstinence was reported in 39% and was associated with better long‐term survival (hazard ratio, 0.53; P = 0.03). After adjustment for baseline prognostic scoring systems (Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, creatinine scores), complete abstinence was independently associated with survival (P < 0.05). Age and lack of past alcoholism treatments were independently associated with complete abstinence (P < 0.001 and P = 0.02, respectively) during follow‐up. CART analysis generated a simple and practical algorithm based on the combination of past alcoholism treatments and age. Using CART analysis, we stratified 2 subgroups of patients with high (65%) and low (26%‐29%) rates of complete abstinence after an episode of AH. Conclusion: Complete abstinence after an episode of AH positively impacts long‐term survival. The combination of 2 variables easily obtained at admission might be useful to predict long‐term abstinence after an episode of AH. Strategies aimed at promoting alcohol abstinence in these patients are necessary. (Hepatology 2017;66:1842–1853)