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ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING IN JAPAN: EFFECTS THROUGH CHANGES IN DEMAND STRUCTURE

In this paper, I investigate the effects of changes in demand structure caused by population aging on the Japanese economy using a multi-sector new Keynesian model with job creation/destruction analysis. I consider upward revisions in forecast for the speed of Japanese population aging as unexpected shocks to its demand structure. I find that the shocks caused around 0.3% point deflationary pressure on year-to-year inflation, 0.3% to 0.4% point increase in unemployment rates, and 1.8% point decrease in real GDP from the early 1990s to the 2000s in Japan. I also find that the repetition of such upward revisions made those effects look more persistent.