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Environmental health hazard handling: statistical and strategic concerns

Some key issues in industrial and environmental health risk research and the ensuing political decision process are discussed, with particular emphasis on statistical trouble spots: the acceptable risk concept; the welfare of future generations; burden of proof; research priorities; public visibility of risks and benefits; statistical extrapolations; multiple testing. The “tiny thief phenomenon, discussed in detail, is the paradoxical fact that an almost harmless chemical may steal more of our health than a grossly hazardous chemical because the former is allowed to operate over a disproportionately long time span before being detected, if ever. The difficulty of proving that something is safe is reviewed. Finally, it is urged that politicians be taught the facts of scientific, including statistical, life; likewise, scientists should be made aware of the nature of political decision processes. Otherwise scientists will emigrate from health hazard research into areas of science where equivocal results and political interference are less common.