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COMPARISONS OF OBSERVED PHYLOGENETIC TOPOLOGIES WITH NULL EXPECTATIONS AMONG THREE MONOPHYLETIC LINEAGES

Three null models have been proposed to predict the relative frequencies of topologies of phylogenetic trees. One null model assumes each distinguishable n‐member tree is equally likely (proportional‐to‐distinguishable‐arrangements model). A second model assumes that each topological type is equally likely (equiprobable model). A third model assumes that the probability of each topological type is determined by random speciation (Markov model). We sampled published phylogenetic trees from three major groups of organisms: division Angiospermae, class Insecta, and superclass Tetrapoda. Our sampling was more restricted than previous studies and was designed to test whether observed topological frequencies were distinguishable from those predicted by the three null models. The pattern of evolution reflected in five‐member phylogenetic trees is different from predictions of the equiprobable and Markov model but is indistinguishable from the proportional‐to‐distinguishable‐arrangements model. This indicates that 1) speciation (and/or extinction) is not equally likely among all taxa, even for small phylogenies; or 2) systematists' attempts at reconstructing small phylogenies are, on average, indistinguishable from those expected if they had merely selected a tree at random from the pool of all possible trees. The topology frequencies were not different among the three groups of organisms, suggesting that factors shaping patterns of speciation and extinction are consistent among major taxonomic groups.