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Evaluation of activity meters for estrus detection: A stochastic bioeconomic modeling approach.

Although estrus detection makes a relevant contribution to the reproductive performance of dairy cattle, studies on the economic evaluation of automatic estrus detection systems are rare. The objective of the present study is to provide an economic evaluation of activity meters used for estrus detection. The effect of different estrus detection rates on gross margins was modeled with SimHerd (SimHerd A/S, Viborg, Denmark). The analysis considers all costs associated with the investment in activity meters. The economic evaluation was carried out through simulation of Simmental herds with yearly milk yields of 7,000 or 9,000 kg and Holstein Friesian herds with yearly milk yields of 9,000 or 11,000 kg, each with herd sizes of 70 or 210 cows. Furthermore, we distinguished between 2 investment scenarios. In scenario 1, only cows are equipped with activity meters for estrus detection, whereas scenario 2 assumes that cows and heifers are equipped with activity meters. Because existing empirical information for some variables shows significant variability (estrus detection rates, time for estrus detection), they were modeled with distributions using the Monte Carlo method in @RISK (Palisade Corporation, Ithaca, NY), allowing us to model a probability distribution of net returns (NR) of investment in activity meters for estrus detection. The simulation results show that the average NR of investment in activity meters for estrus detection over all scenarios ranges from +€7 to +€40 per cow per year for the Simmental breed, and from +€19 to +€46 per cow per year for the Holstein Friesian breed. Generally, the NR depends on the milk production level assumed. For the Simmental breed, depending on the scenario, the simulation results show a 54 to 200% larger average NR of investment in activity meters for estrus detection with a milk yield of 9,000 kg/yr compared with 7,000 kg/yr. For the Holstein Friesian breed, the effect of the modeled milk yield on the NR is much less pronounced. Average NR of investment in activity meters are greater for larger herd sizes because of cost degression effects. An additional equipping of heifers has, on average, a positive effect on the economics of activity meters for estrus detection because of the resulting reduction in the age at first calving. Considering all scenarios, the probability of a positive NR of investment in activity meters ranges between 74 and 98% for the Simmental breed and between 85 and 99% for the Holstein Friesian breed.