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Workload characterization and prediction in the cloud: A multiple time series approach

Cloud computing promises high scalability, flexibility and cost-effectiveness to satisfy emerging computing requirements. To efficiently provision computing resources in the cloud, system administrators need the capabilities of characterizing and predicting workload on the Virtual Machines (VMs). In this paper, we use data traces obtained from a real data center to develop such capabilities. First, we search for repeatable workload patterns by exploring cross-VM workload correlations resulted from the dependencies among applications running on different VMs. Treating workload data samples as time series, we develop a co-clustering technique to identify groups of VMs that frequently exhibit correlated workload patterns, and also the time periods in which these VM groups are active. Then, we introduce a method based on Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) to characterize the temporal correlations in the discovered VM clusters and to predict variations of workload patterns. The experimental results show that our method can not only help better understand group-level workload characteristics, but also make more accurate predictions on workload changes in a cloud.