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How are maths-anxious students identified and what are the key predictors of maths anxiety? Insights gained from PISA results for Korean adolescents

ABSTRACT Maths anxiety has been of great concern for many educators and educational policymakers because of its adverse effects on students’ maths performance and career path. Various empirical studies have been conducted to explore the factors predicting maths anxiety, and they have typically been based on a limited set of pre-specified variables, such as maths performance and student self-concept. However, to fully grasp the nature of maths anxiety, an exploratory study based on more elaborate prediction models using a wider variety of variables can also benefit educators. To explore the important predictors of maths anxiety and examine the possibility of achieving an acceptable level of prediction accuracy, this study employed the random forest algorithm, logistic regression, and the hierarchical general linear model to build prediction models for maths anxiety based on 194 variables collected from PISA student questionnaires. Among the factors predicting maths anxiety, enjoying maths, self-concept, and attributions to failure were revealed as being the most significant predictors. Confidence in oneself, persistent behavioural characteristics, and pressures from parents or teachers were also selected as important predictors. Educational implications are drawn from the findings of this study, and the advantages and drawbacks of each prediction model are discussed.