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Some considerations for improving federal modeling

A recent issue of SPECTRUM (IEEE) has an editorial(1) concerning “systems thinking.” In alluding to the state of mind of a “systems thinker” it denotes the shortcomings of systems science and engineering in terms of the specific area of modeling. The editorial refers to shortcomings in the modeling process identified by an MIT workshop on systems sciences, including questions of: validity demonstration, adequacy of data bases, model compatability, model documentation, and model incorporation of stochastic effects and uncertainties. These shortcomings are discussed in the context of the recommendation of the workshop that a “National System Center” be established to conduct needed basic research in the general areas of large scale systems analysis, modeling methodologies, and tools for policy analysis and synthesis.