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The software module for evaluation of the failure probability of the well electric submersible pump installation

Submersible electric pump installations (ESP) are the main tool of oil production due to the high rate of the oil deposits development. Improving of the production efficiency using ESP is an urgent problem for the oil industry. Failures of installations are caused by many factors, some of them are salts. Water contained in the oil is oversaturated by sparingly soluble salts. It can precipitate in the form of scale at heating. It leads to the gradual decrease of the pump pipe diameter and consequently decreasing of production. In this case, the pump operation mode may be failed. Timely shutdown of the pump for well repair before failure can significantly reduce costs, as well as prevent critical damage of all equipment. But such type of failure as the salt deposition is difficult to perceive, and subsequent repair involve aggressive acid flushing. Reverse situation is connected with maximization of the turnaround maintenance. Therefore, for operators of production control centers it is important to have an information of the failure probability for certain parameters at a given time points. At present, datasets on the technical operating modes for equipment are saved by special software of the digital support platform. Nevertheless calculations of the probabilistic characteristics are not presented. Based on Bayesian estimates, we propose to obtain evaluation of the failure probability in order to support of the evidence monitoring of the wells operation and generate a control impact in case of the critical probability of failures.