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How well do pre- and peritransplant variables predict the long-term results of kidney transplantation?

In organ transplantation, several clinical risk factors that are available before or immediately following the time of surgery have been shown to affect long-term transplant outcomes. We examined their ability to predict long-term survival accurately using a novel statistical method and data from the Données Informatisees et Validées en Transplantation on 3,227 kidney transplant recipients between 1996-2006 at 5 French transplant centers. The results clearly illustrate that the correlation of these parameters with survival is not sufficient to constitute a prognostic marker. In kidney transplantation, classical pre- and peritransplant clinical risk factors of graft loss are poor predictive markers for medical decision-making.