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Study on the virus transmission based on data analysis of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV coronavirus in China (II)

This study is the continue work of the first analysis result posted in 31 Jan (https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/ek9n4).[1] This study was also based on the numerical analysis and general system evolution principle to analyze the number of confirmed cases and related data of 2019-nCoV coronavirus in China from 31 January to present (4 February) announced by the National Health Commission. The analysis result shows that during this period, the number of confirmed cases increased roughly according to a linear growth, the turning point is on 30 Jan. The main conclusion is that the spread of the virus has been effectively restricted since 23 Jan in most region of China, that is, since Wuhan city and many other cities were put on lockdown. The lockdown strategy shows the power equivalent to near 80% of the people infected with the virus being captured by hospitals or isolated at home in the statistical equivalent. Based on these results, the spread of the virus can be expected to be slowdown due to the harsh lockdown strategy that leads to a slow decrease of the number of people who have not been diagnosed. It is suggested to maintain the lockdown strategy, especially in Hubei province, continue to concentrate the study on 2019-nCoV coronavirus transmission mechanism and then take targeted measures to comprehensively stop the virus infection.