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UNDER WHAT DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO/SCENARIOS CAN DEVELOPED WESTERN COUNTRIES AVOID POPULATION DECLINE BY THE END OF THE CENTURY?

The prospects for the dynamics of the number of developed countries, the possible extent of its decline, the ability to compensate for a part of the natural population decline due to the attraction of migration, and various risks associated with increasing migration flows are the subject of active discussion in the scientific community. However, most of the estimates in this discussion are based on the “average” population projections developed by the UN. However, this scenario is calculated based on a fixed and fairly small set of hypotheses and patterns. In the present work, forecast scenarios of the demographic dynamics of developed countries are calculated and analyzed in connection with the dynamics of the birth rate of these countries, as well as the dynamics of migration flows. The main goal of the work is to identify for each country which combination of fertility dynamics and migration dynamics allows it to avoid population decline (and possibly even achieve an increase in population), and which make population decline inevitable.