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Wage and Employment Fluctuations in Dual Labor Markets

In many countries a rise in relative share of skilled labor and an increase in wage differentials between skilled and unskilled laborers are observed. We set up a model composed of two types of laborers, one is regular and organizes a labor union strong enough to bargain and another is non- regular, part-time laborers and deprived of bargaining power. We show that a decrease in the union's bargaining power coupled with negative demand shocks bring about a rise in the relative employment share of skilled labor and a reduction of wage differentials between skilled and unskilled. These findings coincide with observed facts of recent Japan.