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Characterising the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots, and conservation gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae)

With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. As distinct evolutionary clades can follow different routes to endangerment, there is value in taxon-specific analyses when assessing species’ vulnerability to threats and identifying gaps in conservation actions. Rails (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird Family globally, and with one third of extant rail species now threatened or near-threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Yet even for this well-studied group, there is uncertainty in our understanding of what factors might be causing this vulnerability, whether the current threats are consistent with those that led to recent extinctions, and ultimately, what conservation actions might be necessary to mitigate further losses. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The second, created by the recent diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental rails (generally in the Neotropics), threatened most commonly by agriculture, natural-system modifications and residential and commercial development. Conservation efforts around most-at-risk species should be adapted according to the most relevant geographic scale (bioregions or countries), and principal locality type of the population (continental or island endemic). Indonesia, the U.S.A., the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Cuba were the priority countries identified by our classification system incorporating species’ unique evolutionary features and level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails and disentangling the specific roles of extrinsic and intrinsic traits (like flightlessness), will be particularly valuable avenues of research for improving our forecasts of rail vulnerability.