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Synergistic combination of systems for structural health monitoring and earthquake early warning for structural health prognosis and diagnosis

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are currently operating nationwide in Japan and are in beta-testing in California. Such a system detects an earthquake initiation using online signals from a seismic sensor network and broadcasts a warning of the predicted location and magnitude a few seconds to a minute or so before an earthquake hits a site. Such a system can be used synergistically with installed structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to enhance pre-event prognosis and post-event diagnosis of structural health. For pre-event prognosis, the EEW system information can be used to make probabilistic predictions of the anticipated damage to a structure using seismic loss estimation methodologies from performance-based earthquake engineering. These predictions can support decision-making regarding the activation of appropriate mitigation systems, such as stopping traffic from entering a bridge that has a predicted high probability of damage. Since the time between warning and arrival of the strong shaking is very short, probabilistic predictions must be rapidly calculated and the decision making automated for the mitigation actions. For post-event diagnosis, the SHM sensor data can be used in Bayesian updating of the probabilistic damage predictions with the EEW predictions as a prior. Appropriate Bayesian methods for SHM have been published. In this paper, we use pre-trained surrogate models (or emulators) based on machine learning methods to make fast damage and loss predictions that are then used in a cost-benefit decision framework for activation of a mitigation measure. A simple illustrative example of an infrastructure application is presented.