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A Low Income Housing Needs and Affordability for Thailand’s Strategic National Plan During 2017-2037

This paper has developed a model to forecast the housing needs and affordability of the low-income households in Thailand 2018-2037. The model has applied the baseline data from the socioeconomic survey (SES 2015). Considering official population projections by the changing age structure and household formations based on income, forecasts can be made about housing needed by ‘Renters’, who are the target group of the low-income households. Given, heuristic scenarios on households’ income growthover time, an initial planning model for affordable units of housing by types for renters has been proposed. 
Effective government policy to mobilize social resource for this low-income household is needed. It is shown that in the long-run, as mean income rises with changing income distribution, households can rely more on the private market provision of housing supply. The model can easily be used for Strategic National Planning by changing assumptions and parameters by the National Housing Authority of Thailand. The NHA in partnership with CODI can solidly plan for the role of low-income housing policy with government intervention on interest rates, terms loan and other policy instruments such as tax exemption for the land sharing in the housing and community development. This paper suggests meta-planning of an urban city model study where NHA, CODI will work together in partnership with other government agencies, the private sector, financial institutions, and academics 