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R-squared and prediction in regression with ordered quantitative response

Abstract This paper is concerned with the use of regression methods to predict values of a response variable when that variable is naturally ordered. An application to the prediction of student examination performance is provided and it is argued that, although individual scores are unlikely to be well predicted at the extremes of the range using the conditional mean, conditional on covariates, it is possible to usefully predict where an individual is likely to feature in the rank order of performance.