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Trends, Events, and Centres, 1970–92

It is always difficult to disentangle the effects of trends from that of events when making judgements about the causes of long-term development. Evidence drawn from contemporary observers magnifies the significance of events, as they had no means of judging long-term consequences. Reliance on later commentators minimizes the importance of an event leading to a conclusion of inevitability. This can be seen most clearly when examining financial centres with prominence given to the survivors, like London and New York, while others are ignored despite their past importance. Even before the 1970s fundamental forces were driving change in global financial markets, especially globalization and the technology of communications and trading. In the face of these governments struggled to maintain the controls and compartmentalization introduced after the Second World War, faced with the rise of offshore financial centres, alternative financial markets, and shadow banks. In the 1970s it proved impossible to resist these forces leading to the beginning of a transformation of global financial markets in the 1980s, led by developments in New York, Chicago, and London