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Forecasting oceanfront shoreline position to evaluate physical vulnerability for recreational and infrastructure resilience at Cape Hatteras National Seashore

The Cape Hatteras National Seashore (Seashore) is located along the Outer Banks of eastern North Carolina, and is renowned for its prominent historical landmarks and world-class recreation. Seashore managers maintain hundreds of assets that support visitor use. Additionally, and primary to the mission of the National Park Service (NPS), managers steward natural and cultural resources located on public and protected lands. The portfolio of assets managed by NPS within the Seashore carries a high level of risk due to its exposure to both coastal erosion and storm surge inundation. The impacts of Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the importance of examining the physical vulnerability of the entire portfolio managed by NPS within the Seashore. The purpose of this study was to 1) evaluate the functionality of the beta forecast tool available in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (v 5.0); and 2) explore options for using the output to assess the potential physical vulnerability of NPS assets. The study determined that using the 10- and 20-year oceanfront shoreline position forecast provides decision makers with a first order screening tool that can be used to prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies given the unpredictable nature of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and uncertainty associated with sea level rise.