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Analyzing Route Choice Behavior with Mobile Phone Trajectories

Drivers have available an increasing number of options for informing themselves about the current traffic state and to subsequently make route choice decisions based on this information. Governments are investing heavily to build and operate variable message signs (VMS), drivers are buying navigation systems that show the current traffic state, and third-party providers are setting up systems that give information about the traffic state via Internet or phone. To evaluate public investments particularly, it is necessary to know how this information affects route choice behavior. Analyses were made of route choices in two study areas equipped with VMS that give recommendations for routes. The influences of VMS, broadcast traffic state, and other factors are evaluated by using maximum likelihood estimations. A unique feature of the analyses is the large database of observed route choice decisions, which are extracted from mobile phone trajectories. The total number of observations analyzed for this paper amounts to 1.4 million.