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Does the Dependent Variable Matter in Peace-Conflict Models ? A Comparison of the Conflict Index between the Interstate Dyadic Events Data and Militarized Interstate Disputes Data

Studying the determinants of international conflict, researchers have found a series of influential variables, but few have addressed the robustness of the results to changes in the definition of the dependent variable, conflict. The two main sources for operationalizing conflict in empirical work are data on militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and events data. In this paper, we find that a chi-square test indicates a correlation between events data and MIDs data. However, detailed regression analysis indicates that there are some contradictory findings depending on whether we use events data as opposed to MIDs data to measure conflict.