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Partisan Dimensions of Confidence in the U.S. Military, 1973–2016

Americans express more confidence in their military than any other institution. The components and causes of confidence have been little studied, especially as a partisan phenomenon. This study assesses trends in how partisanship and ideology affect confidence in the military. Multivariate analysis of General Social Survey and Harris Poll data shows that while confidence has increased for all demographic and political subgroups, partisanship and ideology play larger roles than commonly recognized. Democrats and Republicans are more confident than independents, but Republican confidence increased sharply over the last 20 years. Party ID is now the best predictor of one's confidence in the military. Conservative ideology has little effect, but liberalism reduces confidence, splitting Democrats. The pattern is not only “Republicanization,” however; partisans on both sides are more confident when their party holds the White House.