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Iran's Basic Macroeconomic Problems: A Twenty-Year Horizon

The Setting During the period 1962-72, Iran experienced a period of relative price stability accompanied by a substantial rate of economic growth. The rate of growth of GNP, in current prices for the period 1962-72, was about 16.4 percent per annum. The GNP deflator grew almost imperceptibly during the first period at the rate of 0.6 percent per annum, while the comparative figure for the second period was somewhat higher at 3.4 percent per annum.' While inflation did not seem to be a major concern during that decade, growth was a primary consideration. Much of the efforts of the government were concentrated on obtaining the financial resources with which to implement the development plans and stimulate the performance of the private sector. This was accomplished through relatively careful usage of oil revenues and foreign loans as well as domestic loans through the existing banking system. Foreign exchange was relatively scarce, and thus Iran's international credit worthiness did not permit significant capital inflows likely to create inflationary pressures. Moreover, oil revenues did not show any dramatic increases until late in the decade under consideration, that is, until 1971, and even then there was no way of predicting the dramatic changes in the international oil prices which were to take place late in 1973.