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Global Climate and Health: Predicting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Over the past decade, the complexity of climate change has been the subject of extensive discussion. However, microbial factors associated with climate change, notably infectious diseases, are rarely, if ever, included in climate models. Although the problem is complicated and the interactions involved are both multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary, the human health aspect must be considered nevertheless if global effects of climate change are to be fully understood. Few will dispute that global warming is occurring. Over the past few years, the highest average temperatures have been recorded, with 2005 the highest in history. Ocean and land surface annual temperatures have increased, with sea surface levels predicted to rise accordingly. 1 Despite the U.S. Surgeon General’s report in the mid-1950s declaring the war on infectious disease to be over as a result of the discoveries of powerful antibiotics, infectious diseases remain serious threats to global health. Acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia and influenza (avian influenza is a looming threat), are the number one killer, but for children under the age of five, diarrheal disease remains a major killer, especially in developing countries. Cholera, a diarrheal disease caused by bacteria, has afflicted humankind over the ages, as evidenced by reference to it in ancient Sanskrit writings. Cholera has occurred in global pandemics, notably in India and Bangladesh,