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Why Fit Models to Data?

“Why Fit Models to Data?” is a brief introductory chapter that sets the stage for the forthcoming chapters and serves as a link between Part 1, which contains the introductory chapters on mathematical ecology, and Part 2, which contains the statistical analyses of the models presented in Part 1: Part 1 illustrated how models can be used to make inferences about the real world, to help clarify ecological understanding, aid decision-making, and evaluate risk. However, if models are presented as hypotheses written in mathematical form, then it becomes possible to use statistical methods to determine which hypotheses have the greatest support. Part 2 will focus on developing statistical tools so that the reader will be able to express hypotheses as mathematical models, fit the models to data, and assess the degree of support for each. The chapter also illustrates the limitations of null-hypothesis testing in decision-making in high-dimensional, multicausal systems.