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“Placebo Tests” for the Impacts of Air Pollution on Health: The Challenge of Limited Health Care Infrastructure

"Placebo tests" are normally used to support evidence of pollution impacts on health outcomes. In this study, we argue that one should be cautious to proceed with falsification tests. We examine how a large metropolitan area in Brazil copes with increased health-care demand due to high air pollution under hospital capacity constraints. Using wind as an instrument, we find that the pollution exposure increases pediatric hospitalization for respiratory diseases while the number of planned procedures decreases in public hospitals. On average, for every four additional pollution-related admissions, one elective care procedure is displaced. Urgent procedures are not displaced.