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Using census data to predict income support dependency

This article briefly reviews the development of area measures of deprivation. It examines the construction of indices of deprivation and the uses to which such indices are put, particularly in respect of resource allocation. Previous attempts to develop indices have been based on a priori definitions of deprivation (eg the Department of the Environment's z score and its successor, the 1991 Deprivation Index) and have lacked an empirical base. The inherent difficulties in validation of such indices are briefly rehearsed and the article presents work in progress on an index which predicts dependency on income support. The index is based on weighted Census of Population variables and is constructed using multiple regression techniques. We present the findings and two validation procedures.