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Effects of stratigraphic completeness on interpretations of extinction rates across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

A rate of extinction must specify both the amount of taxonomic change and the duration of that change. A consistent means of temporal measurement must be used to establish the duration. Terms used to describe the extinction, like catastrophic and gradual, should be quantitatively defined in relation to this framework. Resolving rates of extinction in the stratigraphic record is limited by (1) the precision of chronostratigraphic correlations between individual sections and (2) the temporal completeness of litho- and biostratigraphic records in those sections. In this study, temporal completeness is estimated in eight of the best-known fluvial and pelagic sections spanning the K-T boundary. Temporal standardization is provided by correlations to the geomagnetic polarity time scale. A review of the literature documents lithologic criteria that might be used to infer the presence of a hiatus of some length at the biostratigraphically recognized K-T boundary. Rather than rejecting the presence of such gaps, this study argues that a hiatus of some length does exist and tries to estimate both a maximum limit for its duration and the probability that it represents a given duration below that limit. Pelagic sections are probably more complete than fluvial ones. The section at Caravaca, Spain, can be expected to be the most complete, probably preserving sediment during each 10,000-yr interval of Chron 29R. The section in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, is expected to be the most complete fluvial section, probably preserving sediment during each 100,000-yr interval of 29R. Results indicate that our best-known marine and terrestrial sections spanning the K-T boundary should not be expected to document biologically catastrophic rates of extinction. A sufficiently precise means of global correlation that is independent of biostratigraphy and causal hypotheses is still unavailable, and it is very unlikely that the sections examined are complete at the 100-yr or biologically catastrophic level of precision. So, although catastrophic amounts of extinction might have occurred during the K-T transition, it seems unlikely that we can distinguish episodes of extinction lasting 100 yr or less from episodes lasting as long as 100,000 yr. Consequently, acceptance of catastrophic hypotheses based on these stratigraphic records seems improbably optimistic at this time.