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Prediction of Fracture Failure of Steel Pipes With Sharp Corrosion Pits Using Time-Dependent Reliability Method With Lognormal Process

This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.