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The Surprise of Peace: The Challenge of Intelligence in Identifying Positive Strategic–Political Shifts

Just as a surprise military attack can shock and disturb, so can a political offensive take place through unexpected maneuvers. Missing it can have farreaching consequences. In order to tackle the issue of identifying positive turns in policy, intelligence must consider two aspects simultaneously. First, as the basis of intelligence responsibilities, a determination must be made if the purpose is to deal with existing underlying assumptions, or the readiness to sincerely question the validity of these assumptions in reality. The second aspect raises an important question as to the defined goals of intelligence in issues of peace-making, and how this should be done. This question is influenced by the dissonance between the fact that foreign and security policy tends to rely significantly on continuity and inertia, and the fact that the uncertain character of the international system requires constant change and flexibility. As a result, instead of seeking innovative and creative methods of action, political leaders tend to stick to the “security” provided by traditional policies, and thus the vast majority of political actions are predictable. Faced with stagnation or stubborn foreign