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Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Escalating Commitment

In this article, the author extends the work on self-fulfilling prophecy and escalating commitment as cognitive phenomena that can cause organizational crisis. A detailed description of the FBI standoff with the Branch Dividians at Waco, Texas, provides a unique setting in which to examine the phenomena of self-fulfilling prophecy and escalating commitment. Based on this detailed description, an analysis of the cognitive processes of key decision makers during the Waco standoff reveals that both self-fulfilling prophecy and escalating commitment interacted to cause organizational crisis. The analysis further suggests that variances in perceived behavioral control and cognitive categorization altered the likelihood of a self-fulfilling prophecy or an escalating commitment being enacted by decision makers. These two deviation-amplifying loops, escalating commitment and self-fulfilling prophecy, can interact if decision makers implement bipolar decision alternatives or exclude expert advice. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications for academic researchers and organizational leaders.