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War as Symbolic Politics

This article uses Kaufman's symbolic politics theory of ethnic war as the basis for a broader theory integrating most existing insights about the causes of international and civil war. It starts with findings from psychology showing that people are intuitive thinkers whose decisions result less from rational calculation than from symbolic predispositions—biases such as ideology and prejudice. Studies also show that increased feelings of threat lead to increased aggressive attitudes and behavior. Symbolic politics theory explains how individual attitudes can result in collective action using mobilization theory, with social organization and framing by leaders explaining which attitudes become political action. According to symbolist logic, important causes of war include aggressive symbolic predispositions among leaders or mass publics, heightened threat perceptions, and strong political organizations backing aggressive leaders. Crises and enduring rivalries make war more likely because they strengthen hostile predispositions and threat perceptions, thereby promoting mobilization for war. Cooperative transnational ties and democratic political institutions are among the factors that tend to promote peace.