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Rising Power on the Mind 1

Explanations of international conflict and cooperation emphasize a variety of factors. One prominent explanation of conflict is that unitary actors–states–bargain with each other but face commitment problems when there are shifts in bargaining power. A second set of explanations focuses on the role of domestic politics, with part of this literature highlighting the role of the public. This paper conducts the first public opinion based analyses of shifting power explanations of conflict. Furthermore, the paper engages with emerging questions about the role of public commitments and whether they have a constraining effect on behavior. Using a series of survey experiments, this paper begins to spell out public reactions to shifting power in the international arena. Methodologically, the paper leverages new techniques in unsupervised textual analysis to paint a heterogeneous picture of the mechanisms that shifts in power drive.