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Estimates of the number of regular illegal opiate users in South Australia: an update and evaluation.

A revised capture-recapture formula is used to provide estimates of the number of regular illegal opiate users in South Australia in the early 1980s and to compare these with those of the mid 1970s. Using sample size and variance as reliability criteria, no conclusion could be reached regarding any change in the prevalence of opiate users. The assumptions of the capture-recapture method were also examined, especially the possible effect of assumption violations on estimate reliability and validity. The major threat to reliability is the probable violation of the assumption that all population members have the same chance of being sampled. The utility of the capture-recapture method is not in providing precise estimates, but rather in identifying trends in the prevalence of illegal opiate use.