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Forecasting Analysis of the Durian Yield Trends in Southern Thailand Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method and Box-Jenkins' Techniques

Durian is regarded as the king of fruits having a unique smell, delicious taste, sweet taste, and benefits to the body. Thailand is the number one exporter of durian among all kinds of fruits. Over the years, durian prices have been relatively high. Because there is still a lot of demand for Chinese imports compared to the same period last year, the value of Thai durian exports tends to increase steadily due to domestic and international markets. As a result, farmers earn more from durian cultivation every year. For the reasons mentioned in the preceding, the researcher was interested in the forecast data for durian production in southern Thailand, focusing on data analysis of Chumphon and Surat Thani provinces. Data from the Bureau of Agricultural Economics 8 was collected and analyzed using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and Box-Jenkins techniques to forecast and report on durian production trends.