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When Prisoners Get Out: The Impact of Prison Releases on Homicide Rates, 1975-1999

Although studies examining the relationship between prison populations and homicide rates find significant negative impacts, no published studies have examined the impact of prison releases on homicide. The issue here is whether release rates directly affect crime, independently of any impact they might have through their impact on prison populations. We examine this question by regressing homicide rates on prison release rates, prison population, and numerous control variables using panel data for 46 states from 1975 to 1999. The results provide no evidence of a significant positive relationship between prison releases and homicide. Similar to prior studies, however, we found that prison population growth has greatly reduced homicide rates. The main policy implication of these findings is that those leaving prison have no greater propensity to commit homicide than those entering or remaining in prison.