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Energy and population: transitional issues and eventual limits.


 The implication of population size for US energy requirements is explored in this essay. The basic argument is that the present supply of fuels and energy technologies is not sustainable in the long run, that a wide range of choices is possible when a complete transition is made to sustainable technologies, and that the growth of population and the composition of this growth during the next 30 years are the most serious problems impacting on the achievement of sustainable technology. The importance and future of fuel oil is discussed as well as the transition to sustainable energy supplies: conservation, renewables, nuclear and coal. Dependency on oil can only be changed through time and the infusion of money, but even with these givens, the transition is also dependent on the political and budgetary climate. The race is between crisis and cure. It is argued that the soft energy systems (biomass, solar water heater, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy) along with conservation will increase easily and naturally, but the total potential from these sources amounts to only 10% of the present US energy supply. Conservation offers greater hope because 80% of end-use fossil fuel is used in transportation and industry. Further growth of the population in the US would create a demand to desalinate water, which would increase the demand for energy. A totally soft energy economy is probably not feasible without a drastic reduction in US population. The expected direction is in the increased use of coal, and then nuclear energy. Unfortunately, coal contributes to greenhouse warming, and the supply is limited to 60-100 years. Nuclear proliferation and terrorism is connected to the widespread use of nuclear energy. Some breakthrough technology with cold fusion may offer a safer alternative. High technology renewables such as solar cells can be competitive with nuclear energy, if prices can be kept down. on earth or in space, are being investigated. Exploring a variety of advanced technology is most likely to bring success. Therefore, government investment in accelerated research and development is necessary. The optimum population for the US would be 60 million people.
