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Globalization and Uncertainty: Earnings Volatility in Sweden, 1985–2003

Earnings volatility has been linked it to economic integration only through contradictory conjectures. We assess globalization’s role by examining volatility trends in manufacturing, private services, and public services. If trade increases uncertainty, volatility trends should differ markedly across industries since manufacturing, in contrast to especially public services, is exposed to international competition. We analyze earnings trajectories in Sweden 1985-2003, a country and period evincing accelerating trade, finding no indications of greater volatility increases in manufacturing.