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Development of health risk appraisal functions in the presence of multiple indicators: the Framingham Study nursing home institutionalization model.

A health risk appraisal function is a mathematical model designed to estimate the risk or probability of a person's mortality or morbidity for various diseases based upon risk factors such as age, medical history and smoking behaviour. The Framingham Study has contributed substantially to the development and use of these for endpoints such as mortality and incidence of coronary heart disease and other cardiovascular diseases. This paper discusses a methodology for the development of health risk appraisal functions when the number of potential risk factors is large and illustrates it with sex specific functions for nursing home institutionalization. The methodology involves grouping variables substantively into sets, applying principal component factor analysis and variable clustering to obtain substantively meaningful composite scores, ranking these in order of substantive importance, and then entering these with a hierarchical ordering into a Cox proportional hazard regression.