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System simulation for availability of weapon systems under various missions

In this paper, estimates for availability of weapon systems (fighter aircraft and weapons) during battles are obtained by system simulation. The weapon system is viewed as a system with fighter aircraft that includes both fixed wing aircraft (called simply aircraft) and rotary wing aircraft (helicopter) and weapons as its entities. The functions of the system are basically the military missions. The system is modeled statistically with various probability distributions. The parameters of the probability distributions considered are the system characteristics, which are being inputted. The outputs are the number of fighter aircraft attrited, the number of serviceable fighter aircraft available, and the tons of weapons available for use at the end of each day. The availability of fighter aircraft is obtained as the ratio of the number of fighter aircraft available at the end of each day to the number considered on the first day of the battle. The factors that affect the availability are: the number of missions, the number of sorties in each mission, the tonnage of weapons used in each mission, the battle damage rate considered for each mission, the unreliability of each fighter aircraft, and the repair rate. Further, the admin and logistic delays may affect the repair process. The logistic delay includes delay in transportation due to variations in terrain and weapons replenishment. The availability of weapons is calculated as the ratio of the tonnage of weapons available for use at the end of each day to the tonnage available at the start of each battle day. The availability of weapon system is obtained as the product of the availability of fighter aircraft and the availability of weapons. The results are analyzed in terms of graphs of availability for battle days along with certain statistical measures. From the results of this simulation it is possible to plan combat missions based on criteria such as high priority targets to be attacked and effectiveness of missions for specific air‐battle scenarios. Further, the simulation will help towards the design of an improved system which could focus on the factors affecting the availability as brought out in this simulation and their relative significance. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 8: 309–322, 2005