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Regional variations of fertility in Malawi.


 This article presents an analysis of regional variations in fertility and its determinants in Malawi. The total fertility rate in 1987 was 7.6 children per woman, which is one of the highest rates in the world. The population is expected to double to 20 million people by 2013. Malawi is administratively divided into 3 regions and 24 districts. Descent patterns vary by region. A matrilineal kinship system operates in the Central and Southern regions. This analysis is based on census data from 1977 and 1987 and includes the spatial distribution of fertility. The choice of independent variables is based on causal modeling developed by Beaver and improved by Jones. The discernable spatial pattern of fertility shows that core districts in the Central Region had the highest fertility and districts in the Southern Region had the lowest fertility. The rates in the Northern Region were in the middle. Childbearing begins at the ages of 10-14 years and peaks at ages 20-24 years. Findings from correlation analysis indicate that the 6 independent demographic and socioeconomic variables were not significantly related to the total fertility rate. Multivariate analysis findings indicate that only 12% of the variance in rates in 1977 was accounted for by the 6 variables. Findings from the 1987 analysis indicate that the 3 modernization variables were weakly associated with fertility. Values were not significant, with the exception of population density at the 5% level, but correlation coefficients were higher than in 1977. It is argued that cultural factors at the district level have a greater impact on fertility. People desire large families and expect their children to care for aging parents. Modernization without family planning may be weakening traditions that contribute to longer birth spacing.
