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Forecast and Evolution on Chinese ETP Diffusion through Cellular Automata and Cross-Entropy Divergence

Because of the high uncertainty of the emerging technology, success or failure of an emerging technology product marketing can not be only predicted by its sales. This paper provides a new and effective method to evaluate and forecast Chinese emerging technology products diffusion. The probability of success of each emerging technology product can be predicted through cellular automata and cross-entropy divergence in this paper.