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[Usefulness of logistic regression model to predict the endometrial carcinoma based on blood flow indices measured wit the of three-dimensional Doppler sonography].

AIM
Construction and prospective verification of predictive model permitting to rate individual probability of existence of endometrial carcinoma with use of three-dimensional Doppler Doppler sonography.


MATERIAL AND METHODS
We analyzed the results of 3D sonography of 123 women (mean age 53.8 +/- 10.6; mean BMI--28.2 +/- 5.4). We estimated: endometrial thickness and volume, blood flow indices. All ultrasound measurements were verified by histology. In aim of finding the best combination of features essentially affect on endometrial cancer's risk and for estimate individual probability of endometrial cancer we use a logistic regression analysis. The obtained model was verified on 20 new cases.


RESULTS
There were 24 women with endometrial cancer, 59 women with endometrial hyperplasia and 40 women without endometrial changes. We affirmed that only three variables had statistical significant influence on the constructed predictive model. Probability of endometrial carcinoma was: P(X) = 1/(1 + e-z), where "e" is mathematical constant and z = 0.12 x age + 0.16 x endometrial thickness + 0.47 x VI -11.3. The best sensitivity and specificity were 70.8% and 98.9%. The sensitivity and specificity in 20 new cases was adequately 75% and 91.6%.


CONCLUSION
The usefulness of a predictive model built with the help of logistic regression analysis increase sonographic diagnostic precision. The usefulness of endometrial blood flow indices permit to estimate the individual risk of endometrial cancer in women examined with three-dimensional sonography.