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Vancomycin in neonatal sepsis: predictive performance of a Chinese neonatal population pharmacokinetic model and clinical efficacy evaluation

Background In the neonatal population, individual calculation and adjustment of vancomycin (VCM) doses has been recommended based on population pharmacokinetics (PPK) methods. Objective Our previous study established a Chinese neonatal VCM PPK model. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of this PPK model for VCM trough concentration. Methods The data on neonatal severe infection patients treated with VCM were retrospectively collected. The predictive performance of this PPK model was expressed using mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), sensitivity and specificity. Linear regression analysis was used to compare predicted and measured VCM concentrations. We drew the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the ratio of area under the concentration-time curve over 24 hours to minimum inhibitory concentration (AUC0-24/MIC) and trough concentration for clinical efficacy. Results A total of 40 neonates with Gram-positive bacterial sepsis were included. After VCM treatment, 32 (80%) neonates were clinically cured. Eight cases were a clinical failure: the trough concentrations and AUC0-24 were lower than that of the clinical cure patients (8.70±4.30 vs 14.30±4.50 mg/L, p=0.003; 404.30±122.80 vs 515.40±131.70, p=0.037). The measured and predicted trough concentration were 11.16 (5.96, 16.53) mg/L and 10.13 (6.61, 15.73) mg/L, respectively. The MPE and MAPE were 4.62% and 13.26% (5.30%, 25.88%), respectively. The proportion of MAPE <30% in the adjusted regimen was higher than the initial regimen (89.66% vs 65.00%, p=0.039). Predictions of sensitivity and specificity by this PPK model were 88.24% and 94.29%, respectively. The coefficients of determination of linear regression analysis were 0.9171 and 0.9009 for the initial and adjusted regimen, respectively. The AUC0-24 was correlated with the trough concentration (r=0.587, p<0.001). The ROC curve indicated that the optimal cut-off points for predicting clinical efficacy were AUC0-24/MIC >425.47 and trough concentration >9.45 mg/L. Conclusion This PPK model has good predictive performance in Chinese neonatal patients. Both AUC0-24/MIC and trough concentration can predict the clinical efficacy of antibacterial treatment.