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Scenario analysis as a decision-support tool: a maritime patrol case study

This article argued for the use of scenario analysis as a decision-support tool, regarding incentives and investments on either the development or the acquisition of new military systems. In particular, it presented a study on the maritime patrol operations scenario with the availability of synthetic aperture radar satellite images during its planning process. Through a proper analysis, the images may serve as a powerful subsidy for enhancing mission effectiveness and reducing costs. The effectiveness may be measured by the number of encountered vessels and the cost reductions may come from the fewer flight hours necessary for the mission through path optimization. As a conclusion, not only it was possible to observe clear improvements on the mission success, but also the potential this kind of analysis has for force sizing and capability development.