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Methodology for energy demand prediction in developing countries – a Tanzania case study

Studies show that energy demand in developing countries is expected to contribute a significant amount to the total energy demand in the near future. Although still currently small compared to demand in industrial countries, a prolonged energy demand surge poses a great threat to the environment and social development when not met adequately. Efficient energy planning and management through national and regional policies is the key in minimizing the impact of energy demand to the environment while at the same time giving the potential of providing optimal energy supply to meet the social needs for development. Unfortunately, lack of record keeping and poor data management, detailed data availability posses a great threat in effective energy management and planning. Currently, energy policies in most developing countries especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa are generic national policies concentrating on energy supply with no focus on controlling energy demand drivers due to lack of data availability. This study introduces a new method to illicit household end-use information needed in energy consumption analysis trend models by combining land-use characteristics, satellite image analysis and simple household energy survey. The method can give a generic overview of trends behind energy demand in household level.