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Comparison of international transport corridors in the Arctic based on the autoregressive distributed lag model

This article examines the modeling of international transport corridors using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The modeling of international transport corridors makes allowance for the potential capacity to develop the Arctic transport environment in the context of polar ice melting and increasing time of navigation on the seas of the Arctic Ocean. The authors build models for the Northern Sea Route, the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), the Southern Sea Route (transport corridor of the Suez Canal), the Northwest Passage, and analyze the natural, organizational, technological, and economic factors that affect the endogenous variable of the international transport corridor model. When building the transport corridor models, the authors take the volume of transit traffic via the international corridor in time t as the endogenous variable for all corridors. Exogenous variables are selected according to the variables that have the highest impact on the volume of traffic via each transport corridor and feature most prominently in the literature reviewed in this article. For the Northern Sea Route, these variables include Russia’s GDP, the number of ships passing through the route, the number of nuclear icebreakers, the average tariff, and the minimum ice coverage in the Arctic. For the Southern Sea Route (transport corridor of the Suez Canal) – EU’s GDP, the number of ships passing through the route, the average tariff, and the volume of commercial transit cargo. The methodology for determining the parameters of the model includes the following procedures: flux balance analysis, analysis of the autocorrelation between endogenous and exogenous variables, multicollinearity analysis.


Introduction
The transport potential of the Arctic attracts global attention, particularly from the countries of the Arctic region. Arctic routes are interesting because they offer the shortest sea route for delivering cargo from Europe to Asia, reducing flight time from America to Asia through cross-polar routes. Improvement of transport capacity increases opportunities for the industrial development of the Arctic, which involves exploitation of both hydrocarbon and biological resources, leading to the development of the Arctic transport infrastructure and traffic flows.
This article presents the results of an interdisciplinary study aimed at developing a procedure for the modeling of international transport corridors under various operating conditions. The modeling of transport corridors involves consistent steps to substantiate the selection of a model for the formal description of the economic substance of the transport corridor and consideration of natural, organizational, technological, and economic operating conditions of transport corridors. Analysis of publications on the subject of this study demonstrates the broad range of the addressed problems.

Analysis of studies on the transport and logistics capacity of the Arctic
These problems are associated with the assessment and development of the transport capacity of individual regions and countries, analysis of the state of major transport corridors in the context of sustainable territorial development, comparison of major transport corridors from the perspective of assessment of the volume of transported goods, and the relationship between domestic and international transport corridors. These are also problems of modeling of the transportation of goods via different routes: sea, railway, road, etc.
Researchers address the issues of assessment and development of the transport capacity of individual regions and countries from the perspective of examination of development factors or application of statistical and mathematical tools.
D. Guerrero & J.-P. Rodrigue [1] propose to make allowance for the development cycles of global container ports (Kondratieff wave) in the assessment of the transport capacity of individual regions. Evidence from the global container port system suggests five main successive waves of containerization with a shift of the momentum from advanced economies to developing economies, but also within specific regions. N. Hong [2] discusses potential new transport routes emerging due to Arctic ice melting. The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers a new round of competition and dispute in this region between traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asian neighbors, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean as a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. Bayerz M. [3], Jean-Paul Rodrigue [4] analyze Canada's economic development of the adjacent Arctic shelf. They postulate that the Northwest Passage is of paramount importance to Canada due to the increasing time of navigation as a result of ice melting. If released from the ice, the passage could rival the economic appeal of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) around the Arctic coast of Russia.
A wide range of problems associated with the development of the Northern Sea Route are addressed in the articles of the implementing parties of the Russian Science Foundation Grant "Results-based management of comprehensive development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation" [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12]. These studies focus on the issues of logistics, namely: logistics costs and their management, problems of cost estimation, route planning, raw material transportation schemes, key indicators of efficient logistics, coordination of goods distribution in the Arctic and other regions.
Didenko, N.I., Cherenkov, V.I. [7] consider the Northern Sea Route as a target subspace within the Arctic space and distinguish seven types of target Arctic subspaces. They propose a results-based form of organization and management of subspace development with the purpose of achieving a synergetic effect: base cities; mobile camps; mineral and raw material resources extraction sites; recreational territories; fishing territories; the Northern Sea Route; security infrastructure, with different attributes, development functions and goals.
J. Verny and C. Grigentin [16] develop a techno-economic model of container traffic via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). By adopting a model schedule between Shanghai and Hamburg, they analyze the relative costs of various axes in the Asia-Europe transport network, including the NSR. While shipping through the Suez Canal is still by far the least expensive option, the NSR and Trans-Siberian Railway are represented as equivalent second-tier alternatives.
M. B. Regmi & S Hanaoka [17] propose a model of intermodal transport corridors in the Northeast and Central Asia. It utilizes a time-cost-distance approach to assess and compare the performance of intermodal transport corridors. There are few studies that analyze the status of intermodal transport corridors as well as assess their performance.
E. Twrdy & M. Batista [18] propose dynamic models for predicting the traffic capacity of ports in the northern Adriatic Sea. This study presents dynamic models to forecast container throughput in the North Adriatic ports of Koper, Trieste, Venice, Ravenna, and Rijeka. The models are prepared based  [19] perform a quantitative analysis of the competitiveness of intermodal transport based on sea motorways compared with road transport. The authors identify the major factors of competitiveness of sea motorways. According to the results of the analysis, the choice of intermodal transport is affected by several elements: the costs, time, and reliability of sea motorway.
C. Clott & B. C. Hartman [20] present a model of a concentrated freight corridor. The model allows planning cargo transportation within regional and international transport networks.
L. Tavasszy et al. [21] develop a model reflecting the relationship between the capacity of sea ports and the volume of transported cargo in the context of the development of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Northern Sea Route. The model includes import, export and transshipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows. The model is calibrated against observed data and is able to reproduce port throughput statistics rather accurately.
O. Vaněk et al. [22] present an agent-based model of maritime traffic through the lens of strategies of interested participants.
Dudarev G., Boltramovich S., Filippov P., Hernesniemi H. [23], Rünno Lumiste, Gunnar Prause [24] compare the Northern transport corridor with the Trans-Siberian Railway and the transport corridor of the Suez Canal. The authors believe that maritime transport in polar regions is the only viable alternative and the most efficient way of delivering machinery and production equipment, energy carriers, industrial goods, and food supplies required for the operation of territorial production complexes in the coastal zone of the Arctic seas.
It can be added that the technological complexity of organizing transport operations in the Arctic climate along with certain legislative aspects of the Arctic states dictate the need for international cooperation in the field of transport. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze the Northern Air Bridge project intended to provide air routes from Asia to North America across the Arctic. Air routes can be used most notably by the countries of Southeast Asia. Depending on the route, the time of flight from these countries to North America can be decreased by 2 to 5 hours.
Analysis of studies dedicated to the development of Arctic territories is dominated by the conclusion that efficient development of the Arctic by Russia is impossible without a proper transport infrastructure. The Northern Sea Route is expected to play a key role in its development. It is the shortest sea route that connects Russia's western and eastern regions, European and Asian ports. In the long term, this transport corridor is poised to become the shortest connection between the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
Analysis of published works emphasizes the need to make allowance for the factors and conditions that reflect the full range of functioning of transport corridors and sea ports in the modeling of transport corridors.

Characteristics of the Northern transport corridor and alternative corridors
Northern transport corridor (Northern Sea Route). The main goal of the project is to create the most favorable conditions for the development of maritime and intermodal (i.e. using different modes of transport) transport through the northern ports of Norway and Russia, and to establish an integrated maritime transport system in northern Europe. This should contribute to increasing the volume of sea transport between European ports and the northern Russian ports. Apart from that, one of the major driving factors is the development of the oil and gas sector and implementation of large-scale projects in this field. Using the Northern Sea Route to transport oil and gas equipment is the essence of the project. At the same time, establishment of a regular connection will attract the attention of cargo owners that are already transporting goods to and from Russia through the ports in the Gulf of Finland.
As is known, the Northern Sea Route begins in Europe at Novaya Zemlya (Cape Zhelaniya) and ends in the Bering Strait in Asia. Goods can be transported along the Northern Sea Route via two distinct shipping lanes: high-latitude (2,200 nautical miles long) and coastal (2,990 nautical miles). Northwest Passage. The Northwest Sea Passage is a network of several sea routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, which comprises around 19 thousand islands, many hazardous rocks and reefs. With the rapid climate change as a result of global warming and due to the fact that, by some estimates, 25 percent of the world's oil and gas reserves are concentrated here, the shipping lines of the Arctic Ocean are becoming increasingly congested. However, by connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the Northwest Sea Passage reduces the length of transport routes and thus saves time and money spent on commercial trade, while ice melting in the Arctic Ocean reduces reliance on the Panama and Suez canals.
Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR). The TSR, historically named the Great Siberian Route, is a railroad network that runs across the Eurasian continent, connecting the European part of Russia comprising its largest industrial areas and capital with its central (Siberia) and eastern (Far East) regions. With a length of 9,288.2 kilometers, it is the longest railway in the world. It was fully electrified in 2002.
Southern Sea Route (transport corridor of the Suez Canal). The Suez Canal is the key element of this route. The legal status of the Suez Canal is currently regulated by the Convention of Constantinople relating to free passage through the Suez Canal. The most important principles of navigation through the Canal established by the Convention of Constantinople include (1) the freedom to use the Canal for ships from any country; (2) the equality of all countries in their use of the Canal; (3) the principle of neutrality, implying a prohibition on blockading the Suez Canal.

Modeling of transport corridors
The process of modeling of transport corridors includes the following steps.

Model selection
The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is selected for the formalized description of the economic substance of the transport corridors. The model shows both the effects of changes in the endogenous indicator in previous periods on the indicator value in the current period and the effects of other exogenous variables.
The ADL model (p, q; k) has the form: ... (1) k is the number of exogenous variables; q is the number of lags; n is the variable lag depth; Et are the residues that constitute the white noise process. Important stages in the modeling of international transport corridors include selection of the lags of the endogenous variable that affect its current value; analysis of the stationarity/non-stationarity of the time series of data used in the model; finding the numerical values of the model equation coefficients; selection of the exogenous variables with the most significant impact on the endogenous variable.

Calculation of regression equation coefficients
Below is an example of a regression equation with the remaining variables: Equation coefficients for each corridor are determined using the regression analysis module of the SPSS program; Student's t-test is used to assess the statistical significance of the regression equation coefficients.

Model forms
The equation for the Northern Sea Route has the following form:

Conclusion
Climate change in the northern regions leads to a greater availability of most sea routes in the Arctic Ocean for passage in terms of the number of days. This trend indicates that the number of ships travelling via the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will increase, as will, consequently, the volumes of transported goods. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the shortest path and the shortest sea transit corridor between Northern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, which runs through the seas of the Arctic Ocean (the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas) and a part of the Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea).
The Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage can become cost-effective due to the emergence of large-scale transportation, further development of the territory and a reduction in transportation costs.
The models of transport corridors allow the volume of traffic to be estimated depending on various factors that characterize different operating conditions of transport corridors, including natural, organizational, technological, and economic factors. The results of the study presented in this article show that at present the largest limitation to the full-scale operational modelling of the corridors is the lack of information on many indicators. This means that with the development of the Arctic regions, it is necessary to compile databases required for analysis and forecasting.