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Technological (domino effect) and natural hazards: A probabilistic framework for structural vulnerability

This paper presents the probabilistic framework of the project VULCAIN supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR PGCU 2007). Its aim is to produce models & tools in order to assess the structural safety of industrial cylindrical structures that might be impacted by various projectiles or subjected to explosions. It deals with steel structures (stock, containment), and also with reinforced concrete ones (mainly protection shields). Within this framework, several approaches are planned to clarify the indicators of vulnerability of structures studied. However, the mechanical systems to be developed are adapted to kind of the objectives: very precise and sophisticated modeling of complex phenomena (impact on the concrete, for instance) or global models for engineering use in order to design and control an industrial structure. The first part of this work presents how are estimated the damage of vessels. This part provides an overview of the experimental testing and modeling. The second part deals with the probability of damage of a vessel impacted by a projectile.