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The Twenty-Five Thousand Elephant Question

The recent and rapid increase in elephant poaching has caused alarm. Noting that shipping containers are the main smuggling technique and that transport costs have been overlooked to date, panel-data models are employed to test this variable’s importance. The results support that transport costs are one important driver of smuggling levels. The convergence of several risk factors including the collapse of freights costs in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis provides a plausible explanation of the recent poaching surge. Evidence currently indicates that raw ivory is being stockpiled for speculative reasons.