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Adaptive Travel-Time Estimation: A Case for Custom Predicate Selection

Travel-time estimation for paths in a road network often relies on pre-computed histograms that are usually available on a road segment level. Then the pre-computed histograms of the segments of a path are convolved to obtain a histogram that estimates the travel time. With the growing sizes of trajectory datasets, it becomes possible to compute histograms for increasingly longer sub-paths. Since pre-computation is infeasible for all sub-paths in a road network, we propose computing histograms on-the-fly, i.e., during routing. Such an on-the-fly method must filter the underlying trajectory dataset by spatio-temporal predicates to obtain the relevant trajectories and offers the opportunity to apply additional filtering predicates to the trajectories with little overhead. We report on a study showing that considerable improvements in accuracy of the histograms obtained for paths can be obtained by choosing filtering predicates that not only adapt to the intended start of a trip, but also to the driver and the weather. We also make the cases for a sub-path partitioning based on segment categories since there are significant differences between road types when applying our on-the-fly method.