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The risk prediction of acute simple bronchitis’ prolonged duration in children

Background. Factors and mechanisms for the formation of a long course of acute simple bronchitis in children today are unknown finally. The participation of a big number different factors, including clinical, laboratory immunological indicators, is described. The purpose of the study: identifying informatively significant clinical-anamnestic, laboratory and immunological risk factors for the long-term course of bronchitis in young children, as well as the creation of a mathematical model for predicting the likelihood of developing this situation. Materials and methods. We’ve examined 122 children aged from 1 to 6 years old with acute simple bronchitis who were at the examination and treatment in the infectious department of the Dnipropetrovsk municipal clinical hospital №1. Results. Risk factors were determined and a mathematical model for predicting the development of long-term course of acute simple bronchitis in children was created. Prognostic significance has been obtained: the body weight of the baby at birth is more than 3.7 kg, mother's smoking, background conditions such as perinatal CNS and chronic tonsillitis, low-grade body temperature, duration of fever over 4.7 days, and levels of g-interferon and a-defensins in the oropharyngeal fluid. Conclusions. The obtained results have shown that the development of the long course of acute simple bronchitis in children is influenced by clinical-anamnestic, laboratory and immunological factors. The given mathematical model of forecast can be used in the practical activity of family physicians and pediatricians.