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The Challenge of Population

According to the most informed estimates, if humans continue to reproduce as predicted, there will be a population of 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. No one knows exactly what sort of life these future generations will live, but the consensus is that it will be bad: There will be shortages of everything, especially food and drinkable water. There will be violent conflict over resources. And it will be devastating for the natural world in a way that will redound upon the humans who are causing the destruction. Given this, what should be done? The obligation to future generations is to produce fewer members of those generations. And this is an obligation that overrides other considerations. People do not have a right to freedom of choice when the wrong choice will be so harmful to those yet to come. That said, there are ways to influence people’s choices that allow people to choose freely the appropriate course of action. Contraception can be made free and readily available. People who have fewer children could be awarded with tax benefits. The fact that the fertility rate has already been falling consistently shows that people respond to non-coercive pressure to reduce family size. However, if, in the long run, voluntary action is not enough, certain sorts of coercion are permissible and can be introduced in ways that are consistent with equity between peoples.