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Decadal Variability and Predictability in the Midlatitude Ocean–Atmosphere System

Abstract The coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction and predictability associated with the tropical El Nino phenomenon has motivated researchers to seek analogous phenomena in the midlatitudes as well. Are there midlatitude coupled ocean–atmosphere modes? Is there significant predictability in the midlatitudes? The authors address these questions in the broader context of trying to understand the mechanisms behind midlatitude variability, using an idealized model of the ocean–atmosphere system. The atmosphere is represented using a global two-level eddy-resolving primitive equation model with simplified physical parameterizations. The ocean is represented using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model, but configured in a simple Atlantic-like sector geometry. In addition to a coupled integration using this model, uncoupled integrations of the component oceanic and atmospheric models are also carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind midlatitude variability. The sea surface temperature in the ...