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Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change

Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.