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Evaluating drought risk in data scarce tropical environments

Droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in water abundant tropical countries worldwide and are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought risk in tropical catchments is poorly understood and usually not adequately incorporated in water management strategies. Thus, methodologies to evaluate spatial and seasonal drought risk in data scarce tropical catchments are urgently needed. We combined hazard and vulnerability related information to assess drought risk in the test basin, the rural Muriae basin in southeast tropical Brazil. Hazard indicates the cumulative frequency of drought anomalies, while vulnerability represents the potential of a drought to cause damages in the socioeconomic system. We simulated subcatchment discharges with a hydrological model (SWAT) to evaluate spatially distributed hydrological drought hazard and combined this information with precipitation and vegetation based indices to define the cumulative frequency of drought occurrence for each grid cell (0.1°). We test...