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Like Father, Like Son: Testing the Bush I-Bush II Comparison Predictions

Professor Carpenter challenges the conventional wisdom that George W. Bush must avoid the fate of his father by focusing on the economy. He argues that the economic picture was quite different for father and son, such as dissimilar rates of change in unemployment and inflation during their tenures in office. More importantly, economic approval ratings fail to predict accurately their overall approval ratings. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, Carpenters analysis shows that perceptions of foreign policy leadership appear to be more important in predicting approval for both presidencies. And even though the combination of economic and foreign approval ratings appear to drive Bush IIs performance ratings overall, these played a rather insignificant role for Bush I.