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Probabilistic assessment of distribution network with high penetration of distribution generations

In order to better understand the impact of distributions generations (DGs) on the active power distribution networks (ADNs), a combined 3 points estimation method and maximum entropy technique (3PEM-ME) is developed for the probabilistic analysis of ADNs with high penetration of DGs. The proposed method takes advantages of two state-of-the-art approaches: the well-established 3PEM to obtain statistical moments of output variables; the ME technique to reconstruct the probability distributions based on the obtained moments. The proposed method has some remarkable features, including the ability to accurately obtain statistical moments of desired outputs in an efficient manner; to precisely estimate the tail regions of probability density functions (PDFs). The proposed method is used to evaluate the over-limit events and voltage stability in IEEE 33-bus system. The results show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy while requiring less computational effort compared with the conventional approaches.