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The Impact of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and American Security

Abstract : This paper attempts to discern what the real impact of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty will be to nuclear non-proliferation, and American security by examining the arguments in support of ratification and against ratification, idealist and realist views (respectively). India and Pakistan's recent proliferation is discussed in light of the limitations of verification and diplomatic influence. The paper concludes with analyses of the two sides (pro and con) and what the author believes will be a positive impact on nonproliferation, and American security and leadership in the next millennium, from the CTBT's ratification. Idealists believe the CTBT is the next logical step towards total nuclear disarmament and essential to preserve the momentum established by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Idealists rightfully argue that America's position and moral leadership are at stake if the United States does not lead the path towards a nuclear free world. Realists are not convinced the treaty will prevent a rogue nation from acquiring crude nuclear weapons (horizontal proliferation), are deeply concerned about the effect no testing will have on the safety and security of America's nuclear arsenal, and complain bitterly about the issues of verification and modernization. The political solution for the current Administration was the creation of the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Program (SSMP). The SSMP will allow exploitation of the loopholes in the treaty through subcritical experiments and billion dollar computers that no other country currently possesses. Proponents argue the United States could effectively maintain the safety and reliability of its arsenal, while leading the other nation's march towards disarmament. Methodology for this report was based on unclassified documents and on-line research tools.