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Spatiotemporal Limitations of Data‐Driven Modeling: An ISINGLASS Case Study

Ionospheric outflow remains difficult to predict because of myriad processes acting over a large range of altitudes, physical regimes, and time scales. This study uses the ionospheric model Geospace Environment Model of Ion‐Neutral Interactions with Transverse Ion Acceleration (GEMINI‐TIA) and sounding rocket campaign data to assess the impact of this spatially and temporally variable energy inputs on ionospheric upflow. The Ionospheric Structuring: In situ and Groundbased Low Altitude Studies B sounding rocket was launched on 03/02/17, into a substorm expansion, and included nearby ground‐based measurements which, along with in situ data, are used to construct electron precipitation and electric field inputs to GEMINI‐TIA for purposes of modeling complicated upflow patterns in two important limits: (a) time variable but spatially constant inputs or (b) spatially variable inputs that are constant in time. Realistic ionospheric responses will likely fall between these two limiting cases and may also include additional energy sources not constrained by the rocket. To investigate mixed spatial and temporal forcing we conduct a couple of simulations driven with ground‐based data that resolves both space and time variations in the forcing but at a much lower spatial and temporal resolution. Results demonstrate that the time history of the ionosphere also plays a significant role when accurately describing the upflow response to auroral heating. It takes up to 20 min for simulations initialized with different conditions to converge, suggesting that at the local scales and altitude range studied here it is necessary to include at least that much hysteresis in data analysis and modeling efforts.