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Assessment of the overall effect of migration: the Hexi corridor irrigation and migrant settlement project.


 This article presents an assessment of an agricultural development program in the Shule River Valley, Gansu Province, China. Migrants were settled in the Shule River Valley as part of an agricultural economic development plan to alleviate poverty and reduce population pressure at the place of origin. The settlement plan included water conservation, settlement of migrants, infrastructure development, environmental protection, support for township enterprises, transportation, education, and medical services. The project costs amounted to about 13,000 yuan per person. It was expected that migrant income would average about 1000 yuan per person over 10 years, and government relief would be reduced by about 142 yuan per person. The annual rate of return of the total investment was estimated to be 9% in 11.5 years. The individual investment for housing construction, farm tools and equipment, installation of water and power, and moving costs would amount to among 4750 yuan per household, or about 1000 yuan per person. The government allowance of 1100 yuan per person would cover these costs. It was expected that migrants' per capita net income would be 300 yuan within three years of the move. Findings from other migrant programs reveal an increase in food productivity and migrant income. Over 5 years, the grain shipped by the government to the central part of the province decreased from 285,000 tons to 145,000 tons during 1982-87. The increased grain production and the reduced demand for government supplies of grain will ease the short supply of grain in Gansu Province. The 200,000 migrants reduced grain demand by 50% and left 26,667 hectares of arable land that resulted in higher per capita land supply at the place of origin. Migrants' lives will be improved in numerous ways, such as reduced intermarriage with close relatives. The new development area is based on sound environmental planning.
