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The effect of commodity prices on voting for the left and the right in Brazil

How do economic shocks impact electoral outcomes? I bring novel evidence to this debate by analyzing how a sharp drop in commodity prices that begun in 2011 affected Brazilian political behavior and public opinion. I do so by computing the exposure of Brazilian municipalities to this sharp drop in commodity prices with a Bartik-type shift-share instrument. I conclude that in municipalities more exposed to a negative commodity shock, right-wing parties had an advantage in the 2018 presidential election, while left-wing parties lost support. By linking Manifesto Project scores with electoral data, I show that the parties that were benefited from this sharp drop in commodity prices had a liberal economic agenda and a conservative and authoritarian non-economic platform. Using survey data, I provide evidence that the shock has an effect on conservative and authoritarian attitudes, but not on anti-establishment and anti-incument attitudes.