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A simulation-based framework for quantifying the cold regions weather impacts on construction schedules

In cold regions, weather severity has a major impact on construction activities carried out in the open, leading to significant deviations from baseline schedules. Faced with weather uncertainty, setting up the project baseline schedule, against which performance will be measured, can be challenging. Construction planners often depend on their personal judgment and experience to account for the scheduling impact of cold weather. Due to variation in planners' experiences, the regions where their experience was acquired, and the time of year when the planned project is to be executed, the result can be widely differing plans between planners. This paper presents a structured simulation-based approach that attempts to account for the cold weather impacts on project schedule. This approach relies on generating weather sequences similar to the existing historical weather data for the project's geographical region. The impact on productivity and project schedule can then be modeled, leading to consistent schedules.