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Running out: The Problem of Exhaustible Resources

Positions on the exhaustion issue can usually be classified as pessimistic or optimistic. The pessimists point to the obvious fact that the physical supply of nonrenewable resources is shrinking; once a barrel of oil is used for fuel, synthetic fibers, or whatever, it is no longer there. Even if the resource can be recycled, there will be some irretrievable loss in the process. The optimists usually counter by shifting the focus to a pattern of steady increase in known, commercially extractable reserves-in the case of some resources, a dramatic increase (as suggested by Table 1). And they find further confirmation for their position in the price trends of raw materials relative to the price of labor (see Table 2). To all this, the pessimists reply by saying, in essence, "One swallow doesn't make a summer." They suggest that the 1900-1970 pattern is probably more a quirk of fortune than a longrun trend.