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Exploring advanced architectures using performance prediction

In this work we show how by the examination of the key characteristics of an application, analytical performance models can be formed. These models are parameterized in terms of computational and communication performances of an individual system and can be used to explore achievable performance of an application prior to system availability. Two applications are considered: an adaptive mesh refinement code on structured meshes, and an Sn transport code on unstructured meshes. These are representative of part of the ASCI workload. One of the models is utilized to validate the performance of a Compaq Alpha-server ES45 supercomputing system being built at Los Alamos, and expected to grow to 30 TFLOPS peak performance in the next year. In addition, the models are used to explore the achievable performance on hypothesized future systems with increased peak computation and communication performance.