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Changes of Chinese Coastal Regions Induced by Land Reclamation as Revealed through TanDEM-X DEM and InSAR Analyses

Chinese coastal topography has changed significantly over the last two decades due to human actions such as the development of extensive land reclamation projects. Newly-reclaimed lands typically have low elevations (<10 m) and often experience severe ground subsidence. These conditions, combined with the more frequent occurrence of extreme sea-level events amplified by global climate change, lead to an increased risk of flooding of coastal regions. This work focuses on twelve Chinese coastal areas that underwent significant changes from 2000 to 2015 in their environments, correlated to relevant land reclamation projects. First, the ground changes between 2000 and 2015 were roughly computed by comparing the TanDEM-X and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation models of the investigated areas. These results indicate that six of the analyzed coastal zones have reclaimed more than 200 km2 of new lands from 2000 to 2015, with five of them in northern China. Second, we focused specifically on the city of Shanghai, and characterized the risk of flood in this area. To this purpose, two independent sets of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected at the X- and C-band through the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) and the European Copernicus Sentinel-1 (S-1) sensors were exploited. We assumed that the still extreme seawater depth is chi-square distributed, and estimated the probability of waves overtopping the coast. We also evaluated the impact on the territory of potential extreme flood events by counting the number of very-coherent objects (at most anthropic, such as buildings and public infrastructures) that could be seriously affected by a flood. To forecast possible inundation patterns, we used the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. Assuming that an extreme event destroyed a given sector of the coastline, we finally computed the extent of the flooded areas and quantified its impact in terms of coherent structures potentially damaged by the inundation. Experimental results showed that two coastline segments located in the southern districts of Shanghai, where the seawalls height is lower, had the highest probability of wave overtopping and the most significant density of coherent objects potentially subjected to severe flood impacts.