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Monograph in the framework of the VLEEM Project

This study focuses on learning and diffusion for onshore wind, offshore wind, and photovoltaic power (PV, solar panels). The process is driven by the amalgam of technological development and increasing sales. The study addresses the development of onshore wind in Western Europe and the world at large, as well as the current state-of-the-art with respect to technology and cost. It also shows a possible development in the next ten years. An analysis is presented of the potential of cost reduction through 2030, based on a deployment scenario for onshore wind and learning effects that are deemed achievable both from the perspective of progress ratios determined for the last decades and of engineering judgements about future cost reductions. A more or less similar view is presented for near-shore and offshore wind. Data are presented of near-shore and offshore windfarms that have been realised or are in various stages of preparation. The potential for cost reduction is analysed based on scenarios for deployment until 2030 and learning effects for components of near-shore and offshore windfarms. At last, a view is presented on the development of photovoltaic power (PV) in OECD countries, the status of PV, and potential cost reductions through 2035 based on a deployment scenario for PV and ‘progress ratios’ for several components of a PV system, partly based on past experience.