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Estimation of the dynamics and yields of cereals in a semi-arid area using remote sensing and the SAFY growth model

In semi-arid areas, a strongly variable climate represents a major risk for food safety. An operational grain yield forecasting system, which could help decision-makers to make early assessments and plan annual imports, is thus needed. It can be challenging to monitor the crop canopy and production capacity of plants, especially cereals. In this context, the aim of the present study is to analyse the characteristics of two types of irrigated and non-irrigated cereals: barley and wheat. Through the use of a rich database, acquired over a period of two years for more than 30 test fields, and from 20 optical satellite SPOT/HRV images, two research approaches are considered. First, statistical analysis is used to characterize the vegetation’s dynamics and grain yield, based on remotely sensed (satellite) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measurements. A relationship is established between the NDVI and LAI (leaf area index). Different robust relationships (exponential or linear) are established between the satellite NDVI index acquired from SPOT/HRV images, just before the time of maximum growth (April), and grain and straw, for barley and wheat vegetation covers. Following validation of the proposed empirical approaches, yield maps are produced for the studied site. The second approach is based on the application of a Simple Algorithm for Yield Estimation (SAFY) growth model, developed to simulate the dynamics of the LAI and the grain yield. An inter-comparison between ground yield measurements and SAFY model simulations reveals that yields are underestimated by this model. Finally, the combination of multi-temporal satellite measurements with the SAFY model estimations is also proposed for the purposes of yield mapping. Although the results produced by the SAFY model are found to be reasonably well correlated with those determined by satellite measurements (NDVI), the grain yields are nevertheless underestimated.