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Inoculation Strategies for Polio : Modeling the Effects of a Growing Population on Public Health Outcomes

The World Health Organization has called for global eradication of Polio by 2018, but the disease remains endemic in three countries. Using an expanded SIR model, the present contribution takes into account the effects of a rapidly growing population on the effectiveness of various vaccination protocols and on the burden of disease in the community. Necessary and sufficient conditions were found for elimination of Polio in such a population in the event of an outbreak.