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Automated arrival management: Effects of descent trajectory prediction errors on metering conformance

The effects of descent trajectory prediction errors on the performance of an “Arrival Manager” algorithm are explored. Errors in descent calibrated airspeed and wind speed are modeled in order to assess their impact on the baseline performance of the Arrival Manager algorithm in terms of arrival time performance, airborne delay and the number of losses of separation. These data were obtained by simulating in fast-time two streams of arrival traffic merging at the northeast metering fix at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. A simple arrival schedule is imposed with uniform spacing between aircraft. Given the modeled error in descent speed or wind, the Arrival Manager's ability to deliver each aircraft to meet its crossing-time constraint with no loss of separation from other aircraft is assessed. Results indicate that both metrics - airborne scheduled delay and the number of separation losses - are more sensitive to the modeled descent speed errors than the modeled wind speed error. Wind speed error resulted in no losses of separation.