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Uncertainty in msPAF-Based Ecotoxicological Effect Factors for Freshwater Ecosystems in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

Abstract Ecotoxicological effect factors are part of the analysis of relative impacts by chemical contaminants on ecosystems. Uncertainty distributions, represented by the 90% confidence interval, belonging to ecotoxicological effect factors for freshwater ecosystems were determined. This study includes 869 high production volume chemicals, related to 7 nonspecific toxic modes of action (TMoAs). The ecotoxicological effect factors are divided into a TMoA-specific part and a chemical-specific part. The 90% confidence interval of the TMoA-specific part of the effect factor ranges from 23 orders of magnitude for acrylate toxicity to 2 orders of magnitude for nonpolar narcosis. The range in the TMoA-specific part of the effect factor is mainly caused by uncertainty in the spread in toxic sensitivity between species (σj). Average uncertainty in the chemical-specific part of the effect factors depends on the number of species tested and ranges on average from a factor of 5 for more than 3 species tested to a factor of about 1,000 for 2 species tested. Average uncertainty in the ecotoxicological effect factors ranges from a factor of 100 for more than 3 species tested to a factor of nearly 10,000 for 2 species tested. It is recommended that the ecotoxicological effect factor of a chemical is based on toxicity data of at least 4 species.