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Chemical structure‐based predictive model for methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation potential

Many screening‐level models exist for predicting aerobic biodegradation potential from chemical structure, but anaerobic biodegradation generally has been ignored by modelers. We used a fragment contribution approach to develop a model for predicting biodegradation potential under methanogenic anaerobic conditions. The new model has 37 fragments (substructures) and classifies a substance as either fast or slow, relative to the potential to be biodegraded in the “serum bottle” anaerobic biodegradation screening test (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Guideline 311). The model correctly classified 90, 77, and 91% of the chemicals in the training set (n = 169) and two independent validation sets (n = 35 and 23), respectively. Accuracy of predictions of fast and slow degradation was equal for training‐set chemicals, but fast‐degradation predictions were less accurate than slow‐degradation predictions for the validation sets. Analysis of the signs of the fragment coefficients for this and the other (aerobic) Biowin© models suggests that in the context of simple group contribution models, the majority of positive and negative structural influences on ultimate degradation are the same for aerobic and methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation.