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Erosion prediction on unpaved mountain roads in northern Thailand: validation of dynamic erodibility modelling using KINEROS2

The event‐ and physics‐based KINEROS2 runoff/erosion model for predicting overland flow generation and sediment production was applied to unpaved mountain roads. Field rainfall simulations conducted in northern Thailand provided independent data for model calibration and validation. Validation shows that KINEROS2 can be parameterized to simulate total discharge, sediment transport and sediment concentration on small‐scale road plots, for a range of slopes, during simulated rainfall events. The KINEROS2 model, however, did not accurately predict time‐dependent changes in sediment output and concentration. In particular, early flush peaks and the temporal decay in sediment output were not predicted, owing to the inability of KINEROS2 to model removal of a surface sediment layer of finite depth. After 15–20 min, sediment transport declines as the supply of loose superficial material becomes depleted. Modelled erosion response was improved by allowing road erodibility to vary during an event. Changing the model values of erosion detachment parameters in response to changes in surface sediment availability improved model accuracy of predicted sediment transport by 30–40%. A predictive relationship between road erodibility ‘states’ and road surface sediment depth is presented. This relationship allows implementation of the dynamic erodibility (DE) method to events where pre‐storm sediment depth can be estimated (e.g., from traffic usage variables). Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.