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Information Transmission Through Human Informants : Simulation 1

Although there is a large body of work concerned with information moving from person to person via “word of mouth” mechanisms, mathematical modeling of message content per se continues to be underdeveloped. Such models are of particular concern in the area of crisis response, wherein the need for accurate situation assessment based on informant reports motivates detailed modeling of information transmission among persons at an incident site. As a first step towards the modeling of information transmission in crisis contexts, we introduce a simple model based on prior findings from the literature on rumor propagation and informant accuracy. This model is calibrated using data from Allport and Postman's (1947) famous information transmission study, and various implications of the model for the fidelity of information transmission are explored.