ViewsWire The Economist Intelligence Unit

Poland politics: PiS faces two electoral tests in 2019

February 7th 2019


The latest opinion polls suggest that the ruling coalition, led by the conservative-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, is in a strong position to win this year's elections to the European Parliament, scheduled in May, and national legislature, due in November. Strong employment growth, rising wages and generous social welfare benefits introduced by the current government provide the PiS-led United Right coalition with a solid track record of success in the run-up to the elections. Meanwhile, the liberal and centre-left wings of the opposition remain reluctant to combine their forces. Victory for the United Right in the national election would make it possible for the ruling coalition to entrench its illiberal system of governance beyond our forecast period (2019-23).

Politicians and the public were stunned by the assassination on January 13th of Pawel Adamowicz, the mayor of Gdansk, who was previously a prominent figure in the centre-right, liberal Civic Platform (PO) party. The immediate political impact of the murder—committed by an ex-convict who had blamed the PO for his imprisonment—is that it has now become unlikely that Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the PiS leader, will opt for a pre-term election.

A pre-term parliamentary election is now unlikely

Previously, the option of an early election had been considered, with the government struggling to disentangle itself from an alleged corruption case involving the former head of the Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), which threatened to erode the PiS's clear lead in the opinion polls. However, the murder of Mr Adamowicz has created a tense political atmosphere that could result in a backlash against the PiS's propensity for aggressive rhetoric and the demonisation of political opponents. A decision to hold a snap election in these circumstances is likely to be too risky for the PiS.

Instead of an early parliamentary election, it now looks almost certain that the elections to the European Parliament, scheduled for May, will be the first test of the parties' respective strength at the national level. We expect that the electoral campaign will be preceded by a government reshuffle, involving the replacement of several senior ministers, who will need to stand down in order to be allowed to stand as candidates in the European Parliament elections.

Opinion polls put the PIS-led coalition in a clear lead

In a poll assessing voting intentions for the European Parliament, the IPSOS agency reported at end-December 2018 that the United Right was supported by 39% of respondents; it was trailed by the opposition Civic Coalition (KO), comprising the PO and the liberal Modern party, with 26% support. Each of the other parties, including several on the centre left of the political spectrum and the anti-establishment Kukiz'15 movement, had less than 10% backing in the poll. This, and other opinion polls, suggests that only through greater unity does the opposition have a realistic chance of challenging the PiS in the forthcoming elections. However, several of the centre-left parties are reluctant to co-operate not only with the liberal political forces, but with each other.

Opinion polls with a focus on voting intentions for the national parliamentary election carry a similar message. According to an average of polls conducted by three polling agencies, Millward Brown, CBOS and Kantar, since mid-December, the PiS remains well ahead of the opposition, with 42% support. The KO has the backing of 34% of respondents, and each of the other parties has less than 10% support. Although some opposition politicians continue to call for a broad anti-PiS coalition, the more conservative wing of the PO and the socially liberal left are wary of alienating their respective electorates by joining forces with ideologically incompatible partners.

If the PiS maintains its current lead in the polls and the opposition forces fail to form a more united front, then the PiS has a good chance of winning a second consecutive term in government at the November election. However, aside from the potentially destabilising impact of the ongoing KNF investigation and the aftermath of Mr Adamowicz's murder, there are several factors that could alter the balance of forces between the government and the opposition in the coming months.

Strong economic growth favours the government

Although the PiS has the advantage of being able—amid buoyant economic conditions—to tailor budget spending to the electoral cycle, it will struggle to match its previous eye-catching and popular policy proposals, such as the Family 500+ child benefit scheme and the lowering of the retirement age. According to public opinion surveys, both of these election promises contributed significantly to the PiS's success in the 2015 election.

Given the increasing competition from the radical right, it will also be more difficult for the PiS to repeat the 2015 electoral strategy of toning down its nationalist rhetoric to secure votes in the centre ground. This opens up the possibility for the opposition to appeal to moderate voters disenchanted with the PiS's confrontational style and bellicose rhetoric, particularly if Poland is involved in further confrontations with the EU over the independence of its judiciary and the rule of law in general.

The outcome of the parliamentary election is also likely to be affected by the approaching presidential election, due in May 2020. This would particularly be the case if Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, decides to return to national politics after his term ends in November 2019. Mr Tusk, who served two terms as prime minister in PO-led governments in 2007-14, will miss the opportunity to participate in the November parliamentary election, but he would have time to fight an election campaign for the presidency next year. Currently he is the only potential opposition candidate with a chance of unseating Andrzej Duda, the popular incumbent who shares the PiS's approach to politics.

Given the current balance of forces, we expect the PiS-led coalition to win both elections this year. Success in the elections to the European Parliament is likely to strengthen the PiS's resolve to resist attempts by EU institutions to reverse its policies that have undermined the rule of law. Victory in the national parliamentary election may provide the PiS with an opportunity to entrench its illiberal system of governance, including the imposition of greater political control over the judiciary, other public institutions and the public service media.

The Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit