Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Recovers Against Yen



The US dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday, to reach down toward support again near the ¥108.50 level. We have since bounced after the stronger than anticipated jobs number, and therefore it looks as if the markets are ready to form the so-called “golden cross” when the 50 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA. This is a very bullish sign for longer-term traders and therefore it looks like we may finally have a serious go at the resistance above.

The great thing about this set up is that there is an obvious barrier above that if we can break through should send this market much higher. The ¥110 level is an area that getting broken will signal that the pair is ready to go much higher, and it should be noted that there are several other yen related pairs that have already broken out. It’s only a matter of time before this one follows, and therefore one should be paying attention to other pair such as NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, and the like. As they rise, this will put upward pressure on this pair as well.

With this, I like buying short-term pullbacks, and I do believe that eventually we get the ability to break out and go towards the ¥111 level where there is a small gap, and then eventually the ¥112.50 level which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. I have no interest in shorting this pair, it seems to be far too supported going forward. Remember, it’s also very risk sensitive, it seems that it’s most certainly “risk on” at the moment.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.52.

The projected lower bound is: 107.76.

The projected closing price is: 108.64.





Momentum Indicators


Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.7004. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.



Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.040 at 108.630. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.670 108.670 108.600 108.630 725
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.00 108.54 108.84
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 75,642 86,419 89,409




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