As Downing Street dithers, Britain is squandering its opportunity to shape Brexit in its favour

Theresa May and Philip Hammond
If our politicians could only look up, they would see there is an argument we can help our friends win Credit:  ANDREW YATES/ AFP

If in doubt, blame the civil servants. That seems to be the strategy adopted by disgruntled backbenchers and ministers who aren’t happy with our rudderless Government. But ask anyone who has to deal with the Government from the outside, from foreign diplomats to businesses, and the civil servants are the only ones singled out for praise. A bad workman blames his tools and a poor political class blames its bureaucrats.

MPs do have much to be unhappy about. The UK is squandering its best opportunity to shape European attitudes in our favour. Even as EU governments are at their most open to influence, Downing Street is dithering.

This week, the EU will finalise its negotiating guidelines on the transition, deliberations over which are likely to follow the pattern seen last autumn: a long, painful spectacle in which Britain will concede nearly every point. Rather than getting it over with and moving on to what matters – our future long-term relationship with the EU – our Government looks set to waste more time fighting itself.

In the meantime, European governments will be agreeing their position on the more important question of the UK‑EU trade deal. Britain has a window of opportunity to influence that process, but our Government is so divided that it cannot take advantage of it.

To see what could be, consider the position of Ireland, where I spent most of the past week. Brexit will have almost as big an impact in Dublin as it does here, since half of all exports by Irish companies are bought by Britain and many have to cross UK territory to reach buyers in Europe. And although Ireland is a small nation, bullied by Europe’s larger states as it once was by the UK, it has a clever, energetic leader, a deep understanding of Britain and a strong interest in making sure Brexit doesn’t go pear-shaped.

Last week in Davos, the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, directly contradicted Brussels dogma by saying that the EU should aim for a bespoke deal with Britain to take account of our deep trading ties. Ireland’s preferred outcome would be for everything to stay the same – that is, for Britain to remain in the single market and customs union. But many of its politicians also understand that doing so could prove politically impossible, unleashing chaos in Westminster. They conclude, therefore, that it is in their interests to soften the hard line so far taken by France and Germany.

Leo Varadkar, Ireland's prime minister Credit: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

In other words, Dublin is a potential ally. It is not the only one. Several other northern European countries with strong UK trade ties have given signals suggesting they could take a pragmatic approach to Brexit, if the right arguments were made. Sweden has said explicitly that any Brexit deal should be extensive and go further than the EU’s deal with Canada. Denmark and the Netherlands have both commissioned reports showing the disruption their industries would suffer from failing to reach a deal and, at different times, suggested that a comprehensive trade deal would be in their interests. Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, recently criticised the EU’s “binary thinking” on Brexit. Spain and Italy, while echoing French and German rhetoric more closely, have emphasised the importance of keeping Britain close.

All of these countries make pro-EU sounds and believe sincerely in the importance of EU projects such as the single market, but they are not quite as attached to its dogmas as France and Germany. It’s no wonder. The Franco‑German engine has done more than any other alliance to shape the union, and its institutions therefore suit them best. The point, though, is not to sow division among Europe’s governments on Brexit. It is to help the moderates win the argument.

Beyond Brexit, Europe is facing a crucial choice between a hyper‑federalist leap forward, favoured by France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s centre-Left SPD, and a series of incremental reforms. Ireland, like other nations with strong national identities and a naturally sceptical outlook on the EU political project, is anxious about being railroaded into a union that goes beyond the pure economic advantages it seeks.

The French president wants to take Europe in a hyper-federalist direction Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Britain is now an outsider in this debate. But there is a growing conversation across the Continent about which of the two outlooks should win. Ireland’s politicians talk hopefully about forging a northern European alliance with likeminded trading nations. On Brexit, there is talk in Dublin about drawing up a new framework for “a” customs union to facilitate trade, which could give Britain more flexibility than staying in “the” existing EU customs union. If the UK could look up, for just a minute, from the briefing wars in Westminster, it might well find fertile ground on the Continent for a reasoned argument about pragmatism, shared values and a model of free trade that doesn’t revolve around building a super-state.

Instead, we’re sabotaging ourselves. In Ireland, attitudes to Britain range from frustration to resentment. One senator recounted the reaction when he stated the obvious at a local party meeting: “A good deal for Britain is a good deal for Ireland.” An irate party member responded: “I didn’t come here to listen to this pro‑English s----.”

Mark Daly, an opposition senator involved in parliamentary committee work on Brexit, describes Britain’s MPs as “astoundingly ignorant” on basic trade policy issues. It’s hard to argue with that when, as Buzzfeed revealed on Saturday, staunch advocates of a hard Brexit, like Nadine Dorries, are still posting questions on social media groups asking fellow MPs what exactly membership of the customs union involves.

The UK is counting on Ireland and likeminded nations to win the argument, softening the stance taken by Berlin and Paris. Government insiders point to unmoving polls and the steady state of the British economy as evidence that everything is fine. But the management of Brexit is in chaos and we shouldn’t be relying on our allies to manage it for us. When push comes to shove in the EU, it’s the big nations that tend to steamroller the smaller ones.

We are at a point in history when all the pieces have been thrown into the air. They could land in any formation. Yet at this crucial moment, even as the future is decided, Tory MPs are still struggling to understand the most basic aspect of the choices they have to make. Our allies can’t help us unless we help ourselves.