World Population: Its Connection with Climate Variations

  • Alexey V. ByalkoEmail author


The world population data were analyzed from 1 AD to 2015 whereas those related to temperature variations of the Northern Hemisphere they were studied from 1 AD to 1979. Possible data errors were estimated. The hyperbolical behavior of the world population was evaluated by approximation of its inverse function. The population index was introduced as the relative difference between the inverse numerical data and its parabolic approximation. The index happens to be a bounded function; its average value is close to zero; its error level seems to be nearly uniform. The index describes variations of the world population in the past. The population index was compared with the North Hemisphere temperature variations. During the last millennia, the climate warming seems to stimulate the world population growth while its cooling leads to decrease this growth and even to decrease the population number. However, the population response to temperature variations occurred with a significant delay of about 100 years. Possible reasons for this delay were discussed against the background of known historical events and analyzed by the Hurst method. The historical analysis and the revealed climate—population correlation could give a principal possibility to forecast the world population behavior approximately up to 2080. However, the actual forecast appears to be reliable to the years 2060–2065 only.


World population Approximations Climate changes Correlations 


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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics RASMoscowRussia
  2. 2.Priroda JournalMoscowRussia

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