Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Patriots 2006 Bye Week Update

Okay, so here's what's up at the 5/16th point of the season.


I promise to stop telling you the AFC East is a terrible division. It's obvious that the Patriots will win the division by default and the rest of the division will struggle just to reach mediocrity.

I promise to stop bashing the Dolphins for their strange off-season moves. Everyone knows they should have signed Drew Brees instead of Dante Culpepper, and eventually, everyone will know they never should have hired Mike Mularkey to run their offense. It was a match made in -- well, made in an extremely warm, subterranean world -- that has set Miami back at least a year, maybe two or three years.

I promise not to overreact to Patriots losses. They are building their team as the year goes on; so it doesn't profit us much to bash them when they lose to one of the best teams in the AFC (the Broncos).


The Patriots have improved in several areas from last year; here's my breakdown:

1. Their rushing offense is significantly improved. Through the bye week last year, they averaged only 82.5 yards per game rushing. This year it's 139 yards, a 68% increase in production. And they have one of the most dynamic running back combinations in the league (named the second-best combo in the NFL by Sports Illustrated), with rookie Laurence Maroney complimenting Corey Dillon perfectly.

2. The defensive line is a bone-crushing bunch of men-among-boys. Ty Warren had eleven, count 'em ELEVEN, tackles against the Jets -- a number I don't remember ever seeing for defensive lineman. Vince Wilfork has blown up more running plays in five games that he did in two previous seasons. Richard Seymour can't be blocked by one player. All three of them rank in the top 10 in tackles for the Patriots this season, and backup Jarvis Green leads the team in sacks. It's almost unfair to have this much talent. Almost.

3. Their record is better this year. At last year's bye week, they were 3-3, and in the powerful AFC, that almost guaranteed them no first-round bye in the playoffs. At 4-1, and playing in a... not-so-great division (gotta keep that first promise), they have a legitimate chance for a playoff bye this year.


They fell backwards in a few areas, too:

1. The passing game suffered from the loss of David Givens and Deion Branch. Pre-bye week last year, they averaged 295.5 yards passing a game -- this year, it's 206.2 (a 30% drop in production). As the season progresses, the new receivers will develop better timing and chemistry with Tom Brady and the offense. But the team needs rookie Chad Jackson and veteran Doug Gabriel need to step up their games in a hurry to help open things up for the underneath patterns.

2. Not only has Stephen Gostkowski failed to live up to Adam Vinatieri's lofty status, if he were a veteran, he might have been cut by now. Five out of eight just doesn't make the grade -- although he's done better after starting the year zero-for-two. His kick-offs are high and much deeper than Adam's were. But someday soon, he'll have to kick one to win a game; then we'll know if the Patriots made the right decision.


1. They can trade for a receiver or hope that the ones they have improve; but the passing game must be better by the end of the year if they want to contend for a Super Bowl.

2. The linebackers need to improve. Junior Seau isn't quite there, and Rosevelt Colvin is off to his normal slow start. If they don't play better as the year goes on, the Patriots will be vulnerable to balanced offenses in the playoffs -- and for the most part, that means every team in the playoffs.

3. Gostkowski needs to settle down and start kicking better. Again, in the playoffs the team will eventually need him to kick a big field goal, and he has to respond. In a one-and-done format, the team can't afford to be weak in any area; and that job is another obvious place for improvement.


The Patriots are virtually certain to win their division and be in the playoffs. And if they can correct the things I listed above, they have a very good chance to advance to the Super Bowl. But that's only partially due to their own play; it's mostly due to the problems that other AFC contenders have. Here's my breakdown of the other AFC contenders:

1. The Denver Broncos might have the best chance to win the AFC, mostly because of their suffocating defense. But their offense has taken more than a half-step back since Gary Kubiak left to coach the Houston Texans. If they can improve on offense during the year, then they'll be the team to beat. But that improvement is critical, and I don't see a lot of ways they can improve between now and the end of the year.

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing very well on defense (two shutouts already); but they lost a close game to Washington and won a close one against Dallas -- two second-tier teams in the NFC. I don't think they have quite enough; especially since my last memory of them is the pounding the Patriots gave them in last year's playoffs.

3. The San Diego Chargers are playing better than any other AFC team right now; but their head coach, Marty Schottenheimer, is the most likely to choke under pressure.

4. The Baltimore Ravens are still all-defense-no-offense, and that only wins when you have an historically good defense, which I don't think they'll have by the end of the year.

5. The Indianapolis Colts can't stop the run, and that's all you need to know. Every team in the playoffs can run the football, and they'll just wear the Colts down.

6. Ditto for the Cincinnati Bengals; if you can't stop the run, you can't go far in the playoffs.

7. The Pittsburgh Steelers could put it together and win down the stretch. Their schedule has been tough; but almost every year a team that starts 1-3 makes the playoffs. I just don't think their QB is back to normal (after an off-season motorcycle crash) and their running game isn't as fearsome as it has been.

I stand by most of my predictions in the Season Preview, the two exceptions being that Chicago will be tougher (but the Pats still win it) and the Pats should beat Tennessee. That would put them at 14-2 (or 13-3 with one stumble), which will easily win the division and likely get them the first-round playoff bye that every team covets. Here's hoping it's another great stretch run and the Patriots make it interesting.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe we shouldn't read too much into that thrashing the Pats gave the Bengals. Cincy lost to Tampa Bay last weekend, and they're showing signs of team disharmony."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-1!

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