Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Nash and Cullen make endorsement gains













  1. There's only one vote. Nobody will vote after they see who drops off the first.

  2. No, people will have the opportunity to vote online between ballots or on the convention floor.

  3. You are right Eric. But I think the vast majority of voting-members will submit a preferential ballot. You can also do that online or on the convention floor.

    Most people have jobs, and don't have time to sit around for hours watching TV to see who gets knocked off. Especially in an 8-candidate race.

    So I don't think a losing-candidate putting his/her support behind another candidate will have much of an effect.

  4. The convention is being held on a Saturday, so I'm not sure that a job is going to get in the way of many people. You're right that most probably will vote ahead of time with a preferential ballot.

    But party members are different from regular voters - I expect more than a few will enthusiastically take part in the voting on the day of the convention.

    It looks like it could be close enough of a race that votes on the day of the convention could be very important.



  7. Interesting how far apart Leger and Forum's polls are in Alberta.

  8. I've been saying it for weeks - Nash is going to win.

  9. I would question the weight assigned to current union leaders versus past union leaders in the endorsement rankings. Current leadership is not in a position to vote on behalf of the members, so the real question is whether they will be able to persuade members to vote differently. There's no reason to believe a respected but retired union leader would have any less influence than current leaders.

    Consequently, shouldn't union leadership endorsements be scored the same as MP endorsements, with points per year served, rather than 100% for current leadership and 0% for past?
    Furtherm, since union members often don't vote NDP, let alone join the party, shouldn't the endorsements be weighted based on the number of NDP members from that union? For example, query whether even half of OFL or CAW members even vote NDP.

  10. The weights assigned to unions was based on past NDP leadership races at the provincial levels.

  11. I think you vasted overemphasize the number of votes that will be cast baalot by ballot on March 24. The recent provincial NDP leadership contests in BC and Ontario used a similar system and in each about 85% of the votes were cast in advance.
    So the scope for horse-trading and "throwing support" between ballots on decision day will be minimal.
    You also give vastly too much weight to endorsements by unions and the party establishment. It is evident to everyone involved in the leadership race that Topp's support with the brass is not being duplicated in the grassroots. Topp is running no better than a distant third and maybe even fourth.

  12. But in the 2009 ONDP leadership vote, 25% of the vote was expressly allocated to union affiliates. That won't be the case in the federal NDP leadership race.

  13. I used other NDP races as well. But I think it is fair to say that labour makes up an important part of the NDP's membership, whether or not a part of the vote is put aside for them specifically.

  14. How can it be "safe to say" labour makes up an important part of NDP membership without present numbers?

    Even if we were to assume that, how can it make any sense at all to assign endorsement points based on the size of a union with no sense of what proportion of its members belong to the NDP. For example, the CAW has endorsed Liberals in recent past. In Ontario generally, many unions vascillate between Liberals and NDP.


  16. "As MPs prepare to return to the House of Commons after a six-week winter break, a new online poll by Abacus Data, released Wednesday afternoon, shows the Liberals have increased their support by three points over the past month while the NDP and Conservative’s popularity has dropped by three points. "

    It just gets better, eh?

    1. LOL- Gaining steam? I'd say steaming up the crystal ball. WOW ... all this exposure, and 2 points up on the May 2nd tally. Priceless.

  17. would love to see an update on the Alberta situation with several new polls out recently. thanks!

  18. Hi Don,t forget Qc. I know that it is not there that the membership numbers is the highest but we don't enough history of how they'll vote to establish a prediction int their case. One think is that Mulcair is very popular in Qc (non NPD members and members) so the Qc members will naturally go with him with argument that conserving NPD momentum in Qc have more hcance with him. But my impression is fragile.


