International Forecaster Weekly

The Quadrillion Dollar Powder Keg Waiting To Blow

Derivatives at the heart of the crisis, catastrophic losses are inevitable, financial system headed for oblivion, the new world disorder, EU doomed, Credit Default Swaps at the heart of the problem, Plunge Protection Team history, coverups for globalization failures, Bloodbath for the Yen, 

Bob Chapman | October 11, 2008

The heart of the current crisis is the quadrillion plus derivative market.  Roughly half of these derivatives are listed on exchanges, but the other half are on the totally unregulated, totally opaque, poorly documented and mostly naked (no reserves or collateral given to secure performance) OTC derivatives market.  The subprime and Alt-A mortgage debacles, and the soon to be recognized prime mortgage debacle, are little more than a side show with what will become their one to two trillion in losses which the Phony-Fraudie nationalization and the Paulson Ponzi Plunder Plan are meant to address, albeit futilely.  However, the real estate derivative problems created by these debacles have been important catalysts leading to the loss of confidence that is preventing banks from lending to one another, because these problems, like a Zippo lighter on high flame, metaphorically speaking, have lit the fuse leading to the quadrillion dollar powder keg waiting to blow any day now, and Hanky Panky and Helicopter Ben are running around like raving, corporatist, fascist lunatics trying to stomp out the lit fuse before the whole world financial system goes up in a blaze of glory.
It is this powder keg that has everyone trembling with fear and foreboding, because the inevitable losses will be catastrophic, with losses which may exceed the entire world's GDP, thus obliterating the balance sheets of every major Wall Street commercial bank, including the Fed itself, while virtually every major bank and financial institution in nations throughout the world join them on the receiving end of a destructive juggernaut of loss, insolvency, failure and bankruptcy.  In the aftermath, most will be nationalized.  All of Western Civilization is about to become a smoldering collection of fascist police states.  The entire world financial system is headed for oblivion, and there is nothing on earth that can stop it.  All they can do currently is try to delay and hide the destruction so that they can continue to milk their Ponzi system dry, ripping off the sheople in one final orgy of fraud and profligacy before the government and financial system are merged into an all-powerful super-entity that will rule all non-insider institutions with an iron fist.  Frankly, from what we have seen lately, we are already there.  The final step to nationalization of our financial system will be little more than a formality. Their intention is to take total control, to make markets do whatever pleases them, thus creating their own reality.

The Paulson Ponzi Plunder Plan is the first installment of their final attempt to bankrupt the sheople, who they hope to beat into submission by hyper-inflating and Weimarizing them with bailout after bailout, ad nauseam, knowing full well that these bailouts are futile and useless.  The Illuminati will now attempt to force the poor, hapless sheople into a fascist police state as the next giant step toward the creation of a New World Disorder called Novus Ordo Seclorum (a New Order of the Ages), as set forth on the back of every dollar bill under the all-seeing eye overlooking the unfinished pyramid, both symbols of the new age, the occult and the ancient mystery religions.  What else would you expect from the satanic trillionaires who hope to become the new lords of the universe.  Nice try fellas, but we suspect that God, the current and eternal Lord of the Universe, has other plans.  Many of their own henchmen are going to go down in the chaos to follow, but the raving madmen we refer to as the Illuminati will gleefully sacrifice them on the alter of world government.

The New World Disorder is the hope and dream of the Illuminati which they have been planning for centuries.  But we believe that something is going to happen on the way to that Forum, and that in the end they are all going to end up "swingin' in the breeze."  Their plans are unraveling.  The destruction is far greater than they had planned.  The whole plan is going up in smoke thanks to the bungling of their "Chaos" henchmen in our government and on Wall Street.  To think that they attempted to use naked credit default swaps to cover bonds and derivatives secured by houses borrowers could not afford on such a gargantuan scale tells you everything you need to know about their financial acumen.  They even permitted ownership of derivatives by those who did not own the underlying assets to be hedged (known as "dry derivatives," which are essentially the equivalent of insurance policies taken out on someone or something in whom the policy holder has no insurable interest), thus turning the world's financial markets into a giant gambling casino, with the added bonus that many unscrupulous people were put into a position where they could force an event that would give them a big payoff without suffering any pain on their end.  In essence, by coming up with all these obtuse, Byzantine, rocket-scientist-created derivatives, the smugly clever Illuminati have finally outsmarted themselves.

Then there is the one-rate-fits-all plan in the now-doomed European Union.  What a freaking blooper that was!  We have been saying that this conglomerate banking scheme could not work from the inception of this ill-conceived union of what are very diverse and culturally unique nations, but of course no one listened.  They have so thoroughly destroyed the financial system that there is now no hope of keeping the EU together.  The plan did not even work well in a period of substantial prosperity, and now they are going to attempt to keep the plan going in circumstances, which are the antithesis of prosperity.  Good Luck!  If they hadn't allowed their system to be corrupted by all these financial weapons of mass destruction, out of their unending, boundless greed to milk their sheople, they might have had a shot at preserving the EU and then moving on to world government.  Now they are the proud owners of 75% of all the toxic waste derivatives produced by the American branch of the Illuminati.  And they have piles of banking bonds covered by credit default swaps issued by AIG, and by who knows what other zombie entity, so their stock and bond ratings, as well as their cost of capital, are in serious jeopardy.  As the implosion of these derivatives transpires, the majority of their economies are going down in flames as inflation, recession, and eventually depression set in, adding to their already substantial woes.  Their fascist dream is about to go up in flames along with their precious EU, the revived British Mercantilist system and the debt-based, fractional reserve Ponzi scheme of the evil European bankers and their Black Nobility clientele.   Their American counterparts will fare little better.   

Note that the major Wall Street investment banks, all leveraged to the hilt, are now all gone, whether by bankruptcy, buyout or change of charter.   Goldman Sachs, the only investment bank, which has retained its namesake, other than the bankrupt Lehman Brothers, is on the verge of going under in a Bear Stearns-like squeeze on their liquidity and net equity.  The recent demise of all these investment banks is just the first round.  Things are going to get much worse as the money from the Paulson Ponzi Plunder Plan gets doled out to the various Illuminist toadies.  The latest idea, suggested by the Bank of England (what a feeling of confidence we get knowing that this bastion of financial acumen supports this idea!) and now adopted by Hanky Panky, is to make liquidity injections into the fraudster banks in return for equity positions, such as preferred stock ownership.  What a joke.  Like that is going to chase the credit default swap monster away and restore a feeling of safety and confidence so banks can start lending again. We have news for you.  Even the bondholders of these toxic waste sites are going to get vaporized, so the sheople stockholders can expect to get a Big Zippo.  At least by acquiring toxic waste assets we might have an outside chance of picking up some chump change later, but with this new plan to fleece the sheople, you are throwing your money down a rat hole.  We are told that this will get the money to where it is needed faster.  The only "faster" we see is the rate at which taxpayers will get fleeced.

All these toxic cesspool repositories are headed for bankruptcy and nationalization.  All you will be doing is keeping people employed with exorbitant salaries and bonuses as they continue to rip you off with insider trading and fraudulent derivative schemes.  These witless, pipe-dreaming dolts seem to think that they can get their fractional reserve multiplier going again as the Illuminati try to reinvigorate and re-inflate rampant market speculation along with their profligate money and credit system.  They seem to think they can re-inflate the otherwise tanking real estate markets, using their perfect fraud machines, Phony and Fraudie, because they no longer have to worry about ticking off wealthy, influential and politically connected entities that own their stocks.  All losses that are suffered by Phony and Fraudie will now go directly to the sheople, do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

What are these people thinking?  Again we say: "It's the swaps, stupid!!!"  The credit default swaps will be the first to blow as we move from hundreds of billions to trillions in quarterly losses.  That will send risk into the ozone while the bailouts send inflation into the stratosphere.  And that of course means double-digit interest rates are on the way, which are the main fuse leading to the interest rate swap powder keg, which is the largest of all the derivative powder kegs by notional value, and thus by potential loss.  Take JP Morgan Chase for example, and their $90 trillion derivative portfolio by notional value.  Let's say that $50 trillion are in interest rate swaps.  If they have even a mere two percent overhang where they have to pay out variable rates of interest on two percent more of their total interest rate swaps than the portion of swaps on which they are, by contrast, receiving variable rates of interest, they could suffer horrendous losses that could easily put them under.  Let's say that everything balances at 4%.  But now rates move to 14% as everyone totally ignores the rates set by the central banks sending LIBOR and T-Bill rates to unheard of levels, which are the types of rate indexes commonly used in these swaps.  (Note that corporate debt in Europe, due to the lack of so-called insurance from credit default swaps, has already doubled from previous lower single digit rates into much higher double-digit rates in the 12% area).  Two percent of $50 trillion is a trillion dollars of notional value overhang on which you are now paying out ten percent more, and ten percent of one trillion is $100 billion, a killer loss.  That would put them under.  Even an overhang of only one half of one percent pumps out a loss of $25 billion.  And what if the overhang is 5%, or 10%, or 20%?  With an overhang of 20%, we hit one trillion in losses.  Now, what if rates go to 24%?  And this is only one bank!  As you can see, assuming that the system can survive the credit default swaps, which we very seriously doubt, we will be jumping out of the fire only to land face down in a red-hot frying pan.

It is only fitting that the credit-default swaps lie at the heart of the problem, which the fraudster banks now face.  When you look at what has been done by these reprobates in the past, this is a most fitting fate for them.  First, they had President Reagan pass an Executive Order in 1988 forming the President's Working Group on Financial Markets so they could manipulate markets 24/7 with the PPT.  That was forced by the 1987 Stock Market Crash, an event orchestrated by the Illuminati to convince everyone that we had to have an interventional team to stop such extreme market gyrations.  Then Slick Willie does away with Glass-Steagall in 1999 to do away with the system of checks and balances that allowed banks to pass on paper that was falsely rated as AAA on to their patsy clients.  Then for a double whammy, Slick Willie leaves OTC derivatives unregulated with the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act in 2000, so Wall Street could write insurance policies called credit default swaps without having to comply with annoying, silly and burdensome rules requiring such things as loss reserves or an insurable interest.  These were all passed to cover up the devastating losses our economy was suffering on account of free trade, globalization, off-shoring, outsourcing and both legal and illegal immigration.

The PPT moved our markets, contrary to what market fundamentals would indicate, to give the appearance of prosperity when we were really getting hammered by the free trade agenda.  Our government chimed in with their deceitful and fraudulent economic statistics by use of hedonics.  Then credit default swaps were used to falsely suppress interest rates by insuring the risk of default for potential investors, and never mind that there were no loss reserves, collateral or requirement of an insurable interest.  AAA credit was assigned to otherwise risky companies based on Ponzi scam bond insurers who were insuring bonds with little or nothing to back up their promises.  If our corporations were forced to pay the higher rates demanded by the market without the benefit of these swaps, our corporate earnings would have been dismal, and would have reflected the losses suffered by the globalist free trade agenda.  Then the falsely rated subprime derivatives were created so that Wall Street could earn oodles of fees, commissions and spreads by continually rolling over the same money which they were borrowing short-term and lending long-term.  These earnings helped to boost our GDP and thus to further cover up the losses being suffered by our bloodied manufacturing sector as everyone became Walmart greeters and hamburger flippers instead of being tool and die makers and machinists and as 5 million of our best-paying jobs were moved overseas.  Let's hear it for the Illuminist free trade agenda.  Yeah, rah.

It appears that for whatever reason the Illuminati now want Obama to become president instead of McCain.  The current financial carnage is of course being associated with Caligula, and since McCain is a Caligula Clone, by association he gets hit vicariously with voter ire.  Listen to the two of them promise to save the  borrowers who were given mortgages based on fraudulent information about their financial circumstances.  Let's bail them out too.  Why should the fraudsters on Main Street be treated any differently than the fraudsters on Wall Street?  Now we will have equal opportunity bailouts.  It's enough to make you puke.  Worse yet, Obama is the biggest recipient of big banking largesse in the form of campaign contributions, especially from Fannie and Freddie, and he actively encouraged these organizations to pump out mortgages to people who could not afford them.  Fortunately for Obama, McCain is not much better.

So what's going down in Illuminati town?  In pondering the current pounding of gold and silver, we smell lots of rats.  We hold out to you the following potential scenario:  On September 15 and 16, the Illuminati thought they had the precious metals markets under wraps, driving gold below $800 per ounce and silver below $11 per ounce, in anticipation of their coming announcement of the Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch debacles that were made public late on September 16.  Then the specs go wild, and gold is up $90 in one day, giving the Illuminists a collective myocardial infarction.  As punishment for such insolence, on Friday, September 19, the SEC takes away their right to short 800 financial companies, a big money maker.  They are told to butt out, or they will never get to place another short again, but if they cooperate, they will get the mother of all crashes, which they can short with impunity.  Note how open interest in COMEX gold futures declined from 398,386 contracts on September 15 to 321,021 on October 8.  Yet the price of gold during this period kept pressing past $900, which means that there was some short-covering to the tune of some 77,000 contracts.  The specs under threat from the SEC, are told to butt out while the commercials cover their shorts.  They are told that a crash is on its way, so they short all the non-financials, and stay out of the commodity markets.  Then the Paulson Plan is introduced around September 20, and prior to the vote, the markets are crashed to make it look like a "no" vote will send us into the deepest depths of Mordor, knowing all along that markets will be crashed anyway no matter how Congress votes.  Fortunes are being made shorting with knowledge of when markets will be crashed.  A short-covering rally occurs on Tuesday, September 30, as word is received that the Paulson Plan will be reconsidered and probably passed, but insiders know this is all for show as roughly half of Monday's 777 point loss on the Dow is recovered.  Markets are crashed again on October 1 and 2 erasing Tuesday's gains, those being the two days leading up to the second vote on October 3, to convince Congressional boneheads that the Paulson Plan must be passed to save the markets, and when the vote starts to look positive on October 3, up the markets go in the early going that day just before the vote in order to give our bribed and threatened Congressional morons the impression that markets will rally if the Paulson Plan is passed.  Congressional dimwitted idiots pass the bill, and the markets nose-dive, all as planned.  On October 6, paragon of virtue Jim Cramer scares the living daylights out of retirees, telling them they must get out of the markets.  Panic hits the streets, and the cascade of losses is under way.  The shorts are now cleaning up and are rolling in dough, but of course that was not enough for them.  The Paulson Ponzi Plunder Plan also calls for an end to the ban on shorts against financials just before midnight on Wednesday, October 8, and because the specs have all been good little boys, the SEC lets the ban on shorts expire even though they could have extended it another week.  The bloodbath continues on Thursday and Friday as the financials get bombed, the specs are fat and happy, and down go gold and silver while the grateful specs look the other way.   Meanwhile, the carry trade is unwound and both the dollar and the yen go ballistic due to the crashes around the globe which send traders into yen and dollars to buy Japanese and US treasuries, respectively, and the yen even outperforms the dollar, causing precious metal liquidations by thoroughly bloodying carry traders while the stronger dollar hits the metals also.  And of course, just as we predicted, oil gets hammered below 80, giving more dollar support through the euro effect, and reducing the need for gold and silver as a hedge against higher oil costs.