If Israel Attacks Iran: Threat to the Special Relationship

If Israel Attacks Iran: Threat to the Special Relationship



At one point in the conversation Rusk pondered America’s Mideast predicament—committed to Israel as friend and ally for very powerful reasons but finding itself facing unpleasant economic consequences stemming from Arab angers over that support. Rusk speculated that U.S. presidents would have a tough time persuading the country’s young men to fight on behalf of Israel if the war didn’t coincide with American interests. “I think what they will say is, ‘No, thanks; I’ll take some of that amnesty instead.’”

While Rusk’s political assessment contained a certain flippancy, his expression is worth noting as public speculation mounts that Israel likely will attack Iran if it can’t get America to do the job. Much has been written about the geopolitical consequences of such a strike, about the military repercussions, the possible regional destabilization, the prospect for major economic dislocations, the subsequent drain in U.S. blood and treasure. The debate has been lively and healthy. Matthew Kroenig, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, gained widespread notice with his Foreign Affairs article arguing that an Israeli military strike would be far less dangerous than letting Iran build a nuclear capacity. Georgetown’s Paul Pillar countered in these spaces, as others did elsewhere, that Kroenig’s assessments overemphasized the threat of a nuclear Iran while minimizing the aftereffects of a military assault. More recently, writer Eric S. Margolis argued here that an Israeli attack would draw America into a war that isn’t in U.S. interests and that the country can’t afford.



One thing we know about war is that all planning goes out the window once the shooting starts. This would be no exception. And so the consequences are likely to be far more dire and far more costly than Matthew Kroenig is willing to accept. The crisis would likely require the application of American power to restore order to the region and thwart the almost inevitable economic dislocation—stemming from a significant spike in oil prices—from becoming a global depression. This could mean major American military operations—naval combat in the Gulf, massive air strikes to hinder Iranian retaliatory actions, perhaps even ground troops on a major scale.







Leaving aside Tobin’s seemingly purposeful misrepresentation of Friedman’s view of Israel (he is, after all, consistently and ardently supportive), these expressions reflect the almost desperate desire on the part of some Israel supporters to protect at all costs the concept of the special relationship. Note Abrams’s insistence that those standing and clapping members of Congress were acting in behalf of the equally emphatic sentiments of the American people. Note Rothman’s concern about the "narrative" of the U.S.-Israel relationship. And note Tobin’s zeal in employing the hoary "straw-man" approach to discourse (not to mention his resort to the anti-Semitism ploy against a pro-Israel Jew). All this reflects an ongoing ideological necessity on the part of some to protect and preserve the underlying assumption of the special relationship—convergence of interests.

