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Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study

Sajad Shojaee, Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi, Sara Ashtari, Amir Vahedian-Azimi, Hamid Asadzadeh Aghdaei, Mohammad Reza Zali




Aim: To estimate the number of confirmed cases and the rate of death and also to investigate the cause of death in Italy, Iran and South Korea in the next month.

Background: Growing number of confirmed and deaths cases from the coronavirus worldwide, particularly in Italy, Iran and South Korea, has resulted concerns about the future of these countries and their deterioration. Also the European region is likely to face more casualties due to the delay in the virus reaching most of its regions and, of course, as the trend continues.

Methods: We conducted a simulation in both current and ideal situation for the next month to predict the death rate and examine the reason for the difference in Italy, Iran and South Korea individually. If we assume the cultural and political factors and age pyramids distribution are similar across regions, the differences are mainly due either to the heavier health-care burden owing to the larger population or to the medical facilities diversities.

Results: Our results for Italy showed higher death number, but the rate would be more for Iran. South Korea is also expected to have a smaller increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to Iran and Italy by the next month.

Conclusion: Given the prevailing conditions around the world and the increasing number of casualties, it is essential that all countries, especially those with fewer days of involvement, shall do their best to avoid major losses and damages.

Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Mortality, Iran, Italy, South Korea.

(Please cite as: Shojaee S, Pourhoseingholi MA, Ashtari S, Vahedian-Azimi A, Asadzadeh-Aghdaei H, Zali MR. Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study. Gastroenterol Hepatol Bed Bench 2020;13(2):177-179).




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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22037/ghfbb.v13i2.1944