Boston Celtics playoffs watch: The fight for the 2nd seed, why March 20 could change everything, & potential opponents

Toronto Raptors v Boston Celtics

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 25: Kemba Walker #8 of the Boston Celtics drives past O.G. Anunoby #3 of the Toronto Raptors in the second half at TD Garden on October 25, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)Getty Images

The Boston Celtics have 24 games left to play in the regular season (where has the time gone?). They are currently 41-17, good for third in the Eastern Conference. If they win the rest of their games at their current 70.7 percent clip, they will finish an amazing 58-24, which would be the best record of Brad Stevens NBA coaching career.

Here now is a look at where they stand, where they might finish, the fight for the second seed, and who their playoff opponent might be.

The standings

  1. Milwaukee: 50-8
  2. Toronto: 42-16
  3. Boston: 41-17
  4. Miami: 36-22
  5. Philadelphia: 36-23
  6. Indiana: 34-24
  7. Brooklyn: 26-31
  8. Orlando: 26-32

Milwaukee has run away with the East. They’ve already clinched a playoff berth, And they’re 8 games ahead of Toronto. They’re the top seed.

After that there are three tiers.

  • Toronto/Boston
  • Miami/Philadelphia/Indiana
  • Brooklyn/Orlando

The chase for second

Boston and Toronto are separated by only one game, but Miami is five games behind Boston. This is why they’re in a separate tier when it comes to playoff seeding.

Boston and Toronto will almost certainly finish the season as the second and third seeds. According to, the Raptors have the 14th easiest remaining schedule while Boston has the 16th easiest. This is important because they will end up in the opposite bracket as the Bucks and only face Milwaukee if they make it to the Conference Finals. Getting the second seed would mean home court advantage the first two rounds.

Toronto has 10 games remaining against teams above .500 and 14 against teams below .500. Using their current winning percentages against above and below .500 teams, Toronto should win 16 or 17 of their remaining games. That would put them in the realm of 58 or 59 wins.

With Boston also projected to win about 58 or 59 games, the second seed could come down to the Celtics-Raptors matchup on March 20. Boston has won two of the three games against the Raptors so far this season, so a win in this game would give them the tiebreaker. If they lose, and they split the series, then the tiebreaker gets messy. Here’s how the tiebreakers go:

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Division winner
  3. Division record
  4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
  5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
  6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
  7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed

If Toronto and Boston are tied, then the first tiebreaker and second tiebreakers don’t matter. That means it could come down to the division record.

As of right now, the Raptors are 8-4 and Boston is 7-5. In a scenario where Toronto wins on March 20, they’d pick up a very important game on the Celtics as far as this tiebreaker goes, which further increases the importance of that game.

The Raptors have four division games left: at Philadelphia, Boston, and two games (one home, one away) against New York,

Boston also has four division games left: New York, at Toronto, and two games (one home, one away) against Brooklyn.

This fourth tiebreaker, the record against conference teams, could come into play as well, but it also brings in one more element in the fight for second: Toronto’s upcoming road trip.

Boston’s 3-1 road trip gave them a 16-8 record against Western Conference teams. Toronto is 12-7 and, after a Friday night game against Charlotte, they head out for a five-game west coast swing. They’ll face Denver, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento, and Utah, which is not exactly a killer trip, but they also end their trip like the Celtics did with a back-to-back in Utah when losing a time zone.

18 of Boston’s remaining games are against the East, while Toronto has 13 in-conference games left. If it boils down to that, the Celtics will have to go on a big run. They’re 25-9 against the East. Toronto is 30-9, so Boston will have to catch up. Seven of those 18 games are against teams with winning records. Only five of Toronto’s remaining East games are against winning teams.


Boston and Toronto are separated by one game in the standings. The winner of the March 20 game hops into the driver’s seat in the chase for the second seed. If Boston wins that, they hold the first tiebreaker, head-to-head, because they will win the season series 3-1. If Toronto wins, they force the tiebreaker down into the messy area of division or conference record, and they have advantages in those areas as of right now.

Celtics fans should keep an eye on the Raptors upcoming west coast trip. If Toronto stumbles, it opens the door for Boston to go into the March 20 game with a lead. If the Celtics have a lead in the standings and a third win over Toronto on March 21, they take full control of their own destiny.

Potential opponent

The second seed will likely face either Brooklyn or Orlando. They are separated by a half game right now. There’s really little danger of the Pacers dropping that far in the standings, so the Nets and Magic are almost certainly going to be fighting for the bottom two playoff spots.

A third seed is currently matched up against Indiana. Miami, Philadelphia, and Indiana are all struggling at the moment. The Pacers and Heat play each other twice more. The Pacers also play Philadelphia once more, so they have a chance to make up real ground and climb in the standings.

However, tankathon shows Philly’s remaining schedule as the third easiest in the NBA. Indiana’s is the toughest of those three, so they have a much tougher climb. Philadelphia is dealing with injuries to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, though, so their easy schedule still might not lead to easy wins. Miami’s remaining schedule is about as tough as Indy’s.

It’s tough to predict who would wait for a third-seeded Celtics team. Boston plays Indiana twice more, and winning those games could be what seals a 3-6 matchup if the C’s can’t climb into second.

All things considered, my bet is that Indy stays in the sixth seed. They have the toughest remaining schedule and they have the most ground to make up. It’s going to be hard for them to do that.

That’s how things look at the moment. Boston is looking at starting the playoffs against Brooklyn or Orlando if they can jump up to the second seed, and Indiana if they stay in the third. March 20 could be a huge night that changes Boston’s travel plans in an instant.

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