Why Putin Is Unlikely to Come to Belarusian President Lukashenko’s Rescue

Why Putin Is Unlikely to Come to Belarusian President Lukashenko’s Rescue

One other authorities pleasant to Moscow is in hassle. As Belarus continues to be gripped by protests following rigged presidential elections on Aug. 9, many anticipate to see Russia’s Vladimir Putin intervene. Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ President for the previous 26 years, definitely hopes Putin steps in to bail him out. He can be higher off spending that point packing his baggage.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and the keenness with which it jumped into the Syrian morass have given the impression lately that Putin has a really low threshold relating to meddling within the affairs of others. However Belarus is a distinct story.

As a substitute of seeking to Georgia and Ukraine, it’s extra instructive to take a look at the case of Armenia, the place one other Moscow-friendly authorities fell in 2018. Fairly than marching in to make sure its most popular candidate held on to energy, Moscow opted to work with Armenia’s opposition to barter a political transition within the nation; Russia acquired to maintain its outsize affect in Armenian politics in consequence, and at minimal price.

Putin is gunning for a similar out-come in Belarus. It’s made potential by the truth that the protests in Belarus aren’t anti-Russian or pro-Western, because the Ukraine protests have been, however particularly anti-Lukashenko. In accordance with polls out of MGIMO College, as lately as November almost 90% of Belarusians wished to be on some type of pleasant phrases with Russia (10% most popular a extra “impartial” relationship; simply 0.2% wished relations to be “hostile”). Putin desires to maintain it that approach. Sending in Russian troops uninvited by these at the moment on the streets would solely serve to make enemies of the Belarusian folks, and Moscow already has sufficient of these. Moscow has mentioned that it might deploy troops to Belarus in case of overseas interference, however that must be learn extra as a warning shot towards NATO and Western interference in Russia’s orbit of energy than an intention to make use of the army.

For Putin, stepping in to prop up Lukashenko would additionally put Russia within the crosshairs of main E.U. and U.S. sanctions, an final result Moscow would have been determined to keep away from even earlier than the coronavirus started squeezing the worldwide economic system. At this level, the Russian economic system is in no form to shoulder the political and financial prices of additional army adventurism.

If Lukashenko have been a very loyal or competent Russian ally working out of Minsk, Putin may need been extra tempted to intervene decisively. However that ship has sailed. At this level, the sensible cash is on Russia’s working behind the scenes on a brokered political transition to make sure it retains its privileged place with the Belarusian authorities, irrespective of who emerges from the political fray.

In fact, simply because that is Moscow’s most popular final result doesn’t imply a Russia-approved political transition will play out. It’s potential {that a} switch of energy comes regardless of Russia’s finest efforts to manage the end result, wherein case the eventual authorities in Minsk may nicely tilt towards Brussels fairly than Moscow, a worst-case state of affairs for Putin. It’s additionally potential Lukashenko manages to carry on to energy as long as his safety companies stay loyal, resulting in a Venezuela-like state of affairs on Russia’s personal border, an final result that will be as tragic as it might be ironic given Russia’s previous help of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

However because the protests intensify, each of those outcomes are lengthy photographs. The one longer shot is that Russia’s army will step in.