Donald Trump is no help to the U.S.


Andrew Silberstein

If Donald Trump is elected, his plans will never be fully enacted. Moody’s Analytics assumed as much and derived their estimates with that in mind.

Despite that fact, Moody’s estimated that Trump’s partially enacted plans would lead to economic stagnation.

Moody’s calculated that over his four-year term, 2.8 million jobs would be created. That might sound nice but not given that under current economic policy we would see 5.6 million jobs created.

Further, job growth would not absorb general working-population growth, and unemployment would rise to between 6-7 percent by 2020. (It is currently around five percent).

Meanwhile, Moody’s estimates that under Trump’s partially enacted plans, real GDP — basically the value of all finished goods and services in the country at a given time — would be $19.7 trillion, compared with $20 trillion under current law. In all, the best-case scenario is an isolated and weakened U.S. economy. This entire conversation makes me think of an old black and white movie called “Pi” that came out about 20 years ago. I remember watching it with a couple of friends and was thoroughly freaked out. The movie follows a potential looney trying to establish a definitive equation for the stock market. Needless to say, his equation is fruitless and in the end, (Spoiler alert) he drills a hole through his head because he’s just so upset about the whole thing. We’ve all been there, right?

Anyway, the main takeaway is that the stock market is so complicated. No one has any idea what is going on with it, and those who say they do are the ones you should trust the least.

Close to half of Americans are invested in the stock market — that’s about 150 million people. Each one of those people has 100 billion neurons running around their brain, telling us to freak out, settle down, go out, whatever. Because of that, there are so many variables involved in the whole thing. Millions of people, controlled by billions of emotions, all intertwined in this game called “the stock market” that makes no sense.

People don’t really understand themselves, let alone 150 million other emotional Americans. Everyone reacts to statements from friends, family and thoughts but in different ways. I think this, along with panicking pension fund managers and block traders, helps explain why the stock market goes crazy every time some pundit or political player discusses interest rates, earnings, job reports or whatever it is they decide to discuss.

When Janet Yellen (the chair of the Federal Reserve, which controls federal interest rates) talks, people listen and markets react. Stock prices go up when she says no interest rate rise and vice versa. That is why it is important that someone in Yellen’s position is careful and thoughtful — otherwise the markets would be in constant chaos.

Now envision the stock market with Trump as president. Well, when Trump speaks as president, people will listen. When Trump says, “the economy is a disaster,” markets will react accordingly. When Trump says, “I am going to deport every illegal immigrant,” people will react. When Trump says, “I’m gonna drop a bomb on (fill in the blank)” the world will react.

This guy is not the answer to our problems. He is not the answer to the stock market that our friend in “Pi” was looking for. Rather, he is the cruel end of the drill that will pass as swiftly and devastatingly through our country, as it did for our friend in “Pi.”