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Weather Permitting: Could Isaias head toward North Carolina?

Cape Fear region will see a warm, muggy weekend with potential showers every day. Early next week the East Coast may see a potential threat from Isaias.

Chick Jacobs

This weekend in the Cape Fear region will begin with warm, muggy conditions, punctuated with heavy rainfall in spots. It may well end with all eyes watching the coast.

Thursday saw the evolution of Tropical Storm Isaias into a legitimate threat for the East Coast, with several models bringing the Carolinas in play. If so, it won't be until early next week, so there's plenty of time to prepare.

Before Isaias arrives or doesn't, we'll be dealing with a miserably muggy air mass over the region, with the potential for showers every afternoon. There's a chance we'll see a return to heat advisories over the weekend as well unless enough showers develop to hold temperatures in check.

BTW, while Fayetteville closes the month of July without an official 100-degree reading, we did average nearly 2 degrees above normal for the month. And it looks like we'll enter a sauna in August.

Even without a potential visit from Isaias, humidity in the Cape Fear region will be tropical into next week, with some heavy showers possible. [Contributed]

Here's the setup: High pressure offshore is pumping tropical moisture into the region. PWAT (potential rainfall) levels have been topping 2 inches for much of the week which helps explain why any showers that develop have been frog-stranglers. The only thing from keeping things even more imposing has been a lack of instability.

That's going to change as a pair of troughs work their way into the region. The first isn't all that impressive but will bring additional instability. And with the air as saturated as it is now, any excuse to rain will be a good one. We'll likely see clouds and popcorn showers each afternoon, and some could feature downpours and lightning.  The clouds will hold temperatures in the low 90s, with temperatures tumbling where showers pop up.

Places that don't see showers will see steamy heat. With temperatures nudging the mid-90s and dew points in the low to mid-70s, the heat index will surge into triple digits again. It shouldn't be as oppressive as last week's heat, but you'll want to stay close to air conditioning and keep an eye on pets and elderly neighbors.

Meanwhile, by mid-weekend, we'll have a pretty good idea of what effect Isaias will have on the Carolinas. The storm managed to dodge the system-shredding mountains of Hispaniola and is currently heading toward the bathwater warmth of the Bahamas. A shift to the northwest seems likely after that, with a close call coming up for Florida and points north.

Isaias's track remains uncertain, but a path through or near the Carolinas is a possibility.

Right now, the storm's track appears to be in the hands to two competing air masses: the high pressure that's pumping moisture into our region, and the second trough that will be sliding east. As Isaias moves closer, it will become wedged between those two air masses as they create a channel that the storm will have to follow.

If the trough gets here first, it will block Isaias from making landfall. If the ridge strengthens, or the trough is delayed, the storm will slide more to the west. 

A side note: even if the storm doesn't make landfall, rainfall rates well inland could be impressive. There's still a lot to be determined. Stay tuned!
