Cold Rain

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About Cold Rain

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    Snow Shields At Maximum
  • Birthday 02/26/1974

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    Raleigh, NC
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  1. And I guarantee you if the synoptic setup occurs just like the Euro is showing, CAD is undermodeled at this range.
  2. To be fair, his rep is more that he is just not a good forecaster and his indexes generally provide little value.
  3. And then, just like that, things turned back around lol. At least we don't have a super consolidated PV. However, the problem seems to remain with the Pacific. The NAO has helped suppress the storm track somewhat, but we can't seem to get a buildup of truly cold air to get transported into the SE. The LR looks like a mess right now, if you're looking for a real shot at a big SE winter storm, unfortunately. Of course, the other day, things looked to be trending better. Guess that was a false start and things could look to turn around again in a couple of days. The thing I tend to look at and weigh heavily when looking at LR model data is seasonal trends. The trends so far have been for a rare -NAO to be a stable feature and for the Pacific to remain unhelpful, regardless of what the models show beyond D10. Until we see a deviation from those things make it to within a few days of happening, it's probably best to just expect more of the same.
  4. Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west. But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway. I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.
  5. 5+" here and piling up quickly. Don't see FFWs that expansive very often.
  6. Just passed 5" here in SE Wake. What a rain event!
  7. Looks like a pretty good SE soaking over the next 10 days, with SC bearing the brunt, according to the GFS, where several inches are possible over central and eastern sections. Euro is very wet also. Anytime we can get away with 70s and 80s and clouds and rain in summer, I'll take it!
  8. Thank you!! It's amazing to watch it snow. Seems like it's been forever. Coming down moderately. Can't wait for the heavier stuff later.
  9. All snow in SE Wake. Ground, cars, roofs getting frosted.
  10. I'd like to throw the Hrrrr out, but it's hard to do. It still eventually gets to snow but it takes a long time. Hopefully, it's wrong. I assume it's solely due to the boundary layer.
  11. DT seems way too bullish to me. I've noticed this before also. This isn't a perfect winter storm setup, if there even is such a thing anymore. Therefore, IMO, it's unwise to forecast near maximum possible snow accumulations. If we assume .5 qpf in Raleigh, which I don't think is unreasonable, you have to account for at least some rain and mixed precipitation. And that usually ends up being more than forecast by the pretty snow maps. That leaves about 2-3 tenths to fall as all snow. So, 2, maybe 3 inches seems within the ballpark of reasonable.
  12. I posted earlier. I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday. Been some kind of a boring winter so far. Maybe this turns the tide. LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot.
  13. That's much better. Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down. The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.
  14. The transition to snow almost always takes longer than expected. I don't feel too optimistic on 10" totals around here, even in the sweet spot, wherever that ends up being. But I do think it will snow for a lot of people. The most likely scenario in my mind is a similar distribution of precip type, along the lines of what the NAM is showing, but with much lower totals. South of Raleigh will probably fight mixing issues for a good portion of the storm. I'd guess a 1-3" gradient across Wake and higher amounts of maybe 3-5" toward the VA border. The northern and central coastal plain will probably be the best area to see 4-6". Going to be hard to beat that unless a really intense band sets up and doesn't move. No doubt things could overperform. But they usually underperform, in spite of what the models are showing at this lead. If the HRRR doesn't come around and if the NAM keeps creeping north with the warm layer, and if other models like the GFS continue to warm, then we know that we're tracking toward a lower end event. This isn't an ideal setup, but it may be just good enough. Often, just good enough is the same as not very good, so we'll see how this one unfolds. We need good rates, and hopefully they will occur.