Column: Second wave terror: Preparing for the worst case scenario

İbrahim KaragülBY: İbrahim Karagül*

Turkey is being confronted with a multilateral, multi-front, multinational, very complicated attack wave. We had seen no threat, no attack like this since the foundation of the Republic. There never has been a treacherous enemy line, alliance or axis like this.

Such a confusing attack, filled with ambiguity and as difficult to describe as this one targeting any country, never existed before. There have been countries that faced terrorist organizations, terror attacks or invasions; but, in all of them the fronts were obvious, they were all easy to define, the targets and methods applied were known. The only thing left was to fight against those attacks, those organizations or those countries. Some countries would fight, some would surrender.

Their bosses are all the same, their target is Turkey

Yet in Turkey, there are organizations of all sorts in the enemy front. There are organizations with ethnic identities, those with religious identities, organizations with a sectarian axis as well as organizations carrying out the dirty works of intelligence organizations. All of these organizations, which normally have no connection, which would never come together and as a matter of fact, which are generally in conflict with one another, are taking joint action in the same position against Turkey. They are attempting joint attacks with the same instruction.

What’s worse is, the terrorism targeting Turkey contains countries from every front, from every continent behind it. Many countries from Europe, the U.S. and the Middle East are hiding behind the terrorist organizations carrying out their dirty works and hitting Turkey. This war, which used to be carried out covertly, was turned into open war especially after July 15.Our NATO partners are hitting us with terror

When the organizations against which NATO countries are fighting as a whole are attacking Turkey, the same NATO countries are conducting their business behind those organizations. The U.S. and European countries are attacking Turkey through the organizations they have listed as terrorist organizations; they give them weapons, money, training opportunities and determine an open target.

There is amazing transitivity between these organizations of which some are in pursuit of an ethnic map and some are using Islam as a camouflage and becoming organized by taking action through the Islamic identity. The reason for this transitivity is the countries behind them and these countries distributing tenders to almost every terrorist organization and controlling them.

These interrelations enable countries appearing as Turkey’s friends and allies and countries that appear to be its enemy to take place behind the same organizations. Those who have turned the 25-year fight against terrorism into a political doctrine are the world’s biggest financiers of terrorism. It is that these countries are bringing together the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Daesh with the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) and Syria’s PKK, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the same position.

There is a war of states, not a war of organizations

It is that the new map plans aimed at the Middle East are launched through these organizations. It is that the atmosphere for a world war that may break out in the future is created through these organizations. It is that these powers, countries, states, intelligence agencies are carrying out the sharing war over the Muslim Middle Zone spanning the Atlantic coasts and the Pacific region, its planning, through terrorist organizations.

This is why the war is big. This is why it is not only a fight against terrorism but states. The issue is not only terrorist organizations, it is the showdown of powers. There is a fight of states, not a war of organizations. After this stage, the past’s friend-enemy relations have become meaningless. Strategic partnerships have lost meaning, traditional alliance relations such as NATO have started to mean nothing for NATO-member countries like Turkey.

Of course we are going to have knowledge of all this meta-discourse, this operation, plan and take position accordingly. Of course we are obliged to shape Turkey’s future plans, its alliance relations from bilateral ties to supra-national partnerships, close geography plans according to this big map and picture.

Civilians on the same wavelength as terrorism

We are going to focus on our own plans and self-defense without giving any credit to those on the inside with bad intentions, to the logistics circles of terrorist organizations, to the extensions of countries carrying out the showdown, without being defeated by their psychological operations and by maintaining the social psychology.

Of course, Turkey is going to have no such option as surrendering to this multinational terror wave or to sit with it at the negotiation table. There has been no period in which this country had a philosophy in its political genes such as saving itself through retreat or making do with what exists and it will continue to be that way. Based on this, we are going to pay extreme attention to those trying to force the country into this and those that seem as though they are supposedly trying to lighten the mood, but are acting along the same wavelength as terror.

No other option but ‘ruthless resistance’

We have no problem or indecisiveness in this matter. The July 15 resistance taught a lot to this country. That multinational scenario was felt in even the farthest corners of the country. The public opinion was formed in relation to what needed to be done. Turkey’s integrity, future and social solidarity became stronger than ever. There is no other choice but to fight, resist, protect the country, to strengthen it even more, let alone weaken it.

The social awareness we have long been bringing to the fore under the name “ruthless resistance” has become stronger than the terrorist attacks, the plans behind them and the internal operations aimed at collapsing the social psychology. Defense forts are being built individual by individual, home by home, street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood, village by village, city by city. Hence, what we are experiencing has been named the last war of independence, homeland defense. Because today, nothing is above defending the country. No interest, policy or plan has priority over the nation axis.

Four different attacks, different organizations, common target

We have to put these truths in front of us and be prepared for all states of struggle. We need a very serious analysis of terrorism from the Beşiktaş attack to the Kayseri attack, from the Russian ambassador’s killing to the Reina raid; we need to put forth a map, draw a road map for the upcoming period. None of the four attacks seem to be connected. The Beşiktaş and Kayseri attacks were by the PKK/PYD. The killing of the Russian ambassador was by the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETÖ). The recent Reina attack was by Daesh. So are all these unrelated? Of course not. If we consider them independent from one another, we will lose; we will become blind and fail to see the next step.

This is what we call asymmetric warfare. For us, the PKK/PYD, Daesh or another organization no longer carries any meaning. Every country obviously has its own priorities for attacking Turkey. Even if the organizations are motivated by these priorities, the top plan is Turkey and those settling their accounts with game-setter Turkey. Those gathering all these organizations in the same position are these game-setters.

These are only the first wave attacks

Of course we are going to find those who pulled the trigger and blasted the bomb, we are going to reveal the organizations behind them. But if we get stuck there, it means we have become blinded; so we will not get stuck. Otherwise, we will have no foresight in relation to what might happen in the next step. Hitmen are simply hitmen. Most of the time only organizations are determined after the hitmen, but nothing follows after that. It has been this way in all the big terrorist attacks throughout the world. For instance, all files were closed after the determination that “al-Qaida took responsibility for the attack” in the majority of al-Qaida attacks.

The lack of a common link between the targets of the last four attacks, different organizations and different addresses being targeted gives the impression that we are face-to-face with the first wave of a very broad process. Therefore, the next step will also be an unpredictable target. Every attack is being planned in the form of a “reverse blow.”

If the Syrian war ends, all plans will collapse

The objective is to collapse social psychology step by step, making state mechanisms unmanageable and to isolate Turkey. Ending the Syrian war is ruining a global game and they are bringing Turkey to account for this. Rapprochement with Russia is ruining the Atlantic axis and they are calling to account for this. The radical fight against terrorism ensures internal integrity and negates the plan to divide Turkey.

Those who pay attention will see these aims in all of the attacks. The plan being applied is complex and sophisticated enough to confuse security and intelligence units. This is why the professionalism of the hitman in the Reina attack, the impression that he was specifically chosen and protected is important.

Second wave attacks and the worst case scenario

When the second wave attacks start, in addition to examples of terrorism we can witness that social opposition circles are also activated. There might be scenarios such as an organization similar to the Gezi incidents, gathering those unhappy and activating them, pushing the logistics circles of violent organizations to the streets.

Those who could not succeed on July 15 are working on a plan similar to or even worse than July 15 and trying to build a social ground similar to that before the July 15 coup attempt. This time those who will take place in the front is somewhat obvious. Those who could not achieve their goal with the Gezi revolt, the Dec. 17 and Dec. 25 intervention and the July 15 attack may play out these scenarios as a single scenario. This is the worst case scenario. Therefore, every attack should be investigated to the minutest detail and the next step should become calculable.

Making room for PKK/PYD by making Turkey fight against Daesh

FETÖ and PKK circles may be activated as a single front together with the DHKP-C and other marginal circles. We no longer need to even debate that all of these organizations are controlled by the intelligence agencies of U.S. and European countries. Pushing Turkey into direct war against all terrorist organizations might be a part of the plan. The war against Daesh is presented in the country in the form of terrorist attacks and these are being marketed as Turkey-Daesh showdown. The upper scenario is being hidden. However, Turkey is obliged to take into account it’s focusing on fighting Daesh and as a result making room for other organizations. The “Making room for PKK/PYD by making Turkey fight against Daesh” theory needs to be thought well. Those voicing the fight against Daesh the loudest today are not supporting Turkey in al-Bab, but the terrorist organizations.

Make Turkey fight Nusra to make more room

A new one might be added to this theory in the upcoming days. The “Make Turkey fight Nusra to make more room for the PKK/PYD” policy might be placed against Turkey. A new actor might be invented for new attacks inside the country.

In the event Turkey is made to fight Nusra in the future, it will be the terrorist organizations supported once again, not Turkey. The al-Nusra discourse turning into a rising discourse in the international sphere has such a danger for Turkey.

They are hitting through both terrorism and the fight against terrorism

Why am I saying this? Turkey is being hit by terrorism. This is something we know. But there is a new situation: Turkey is also being hit by the fight against terrorism. If we think about this, we will see a lot of things.

Nobody has given up their claim. Nobody has given up on the idea to take Turkey. Nobody has given up on their cooperation with terrorist organizations. Therefore, we are in a position to prepare for the worst case scenario.


(Published in Yeni Şafak Turkish newspaper on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2017)