The Strategist

IEA expects an increase in demand for LNG at 1.6% per year

06/26/2018 - 15:52

According to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the annual growth of world gas demand in the next five years will reach 1.6%, up to 4.1 trillion cubic meters in 2023. The leader of consumption will be China, and the United States will strengthen its position in terms of production and exports. The IEA experts keep clinging to their expectations for the gas market a year earlier, estimating the demand growth until 2022 at the same 1.6%.

As the last IEA release on the gas market says, world demand growth in the next five years will amount to 1.6%. By 2023, the volume of demand will reach more than 4.1 trillion cubic meters (3.74 trillion cubic meters in 2017). In the coming years, IEA experts expect that China will become the world's largest importer of gas, and the demand in this country will grow by 60% until 2023 (amounting to more than a third of global demand), taking into account the country's transition from coal to gas generation.

As for sectoral demand, more than 40% will fall on the industrial sector. The popularity of liquefied natural gas will increase, and its share in the world market will total 40%. In terms of gas prospects, estimates of the IEA a year ago differ little from the current forecasts. Back in 2017, demand growth was then estimated at the same 1.6% per year. At the same time, almost 40% of the growth will come from the largest producer, the United States, with an annual increase of 2.9%. By 2022, the United States will produce about 890 billion cubic meters of gas, or 22% of global production; more than half of this will be exported in the form of liquefied gas. Its production in 2022 will grow by 160 billion cubic meters, the leaders of growth will be the US and Australia.