Will Memphis Grizzlies' defense-first mentality equal wins?

Peter Edmiston
The Commercial Appeal
Will coach J.B. Bickerstaff's defense-first mantra equal wins in Memphis?

“Why try to copycat and be like everybody else?”, “Why can't we be different, why can't we be unique? Why can't we be so good at what we do, that teams have a hard time when they come see us?” - Grizzlies head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, June 22, 2018

The Grizzlies have never been afraid to zig when others zagged. After all, how many franchises could build their brand on the backs of role players? Usually, legends are not built by the Tony Allens and Zach Randolphs of the world, but the Grizzlies aren't a usual group.

A couple of seasons removed from an attempt to "modernize" the team with a more offensive mindset, the Grizzlies are returning to that well-worn path of defense first. Never mind that virtually everyone else isn't -- the Grizzlies are. 

But can it work? Can you win big these days as a primarily defensive-minded team?

Yes — but it won't be simple. The Grizzlies took their first steps in that direction with their draft, taking defensive-minded players with each of their picks. Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace has said on more than one occasion he thinks Jaren Jackson, Jr. could end up as the best shot blocker and defensive player in franchise history. As for Jevon Carter, the Grizzlies' second round pick, his fellow rookies recently voted him the best defender of this class. Carter has two National Defensive Player of the Year awards from his time at West Virginia. 

Putting the pieces together

How do the Grizzlies take those new pieces, meld them with the existing roster and create a defensively-focused group that can still win more games than they lose? 

The easiest way to do it would be to be excellent at both defense and offense. It won't surprise you to discover that teams able to add elite offenses to elite defenses are, well, elite. Since 1980, only twice has an NBA champion not finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating for that season. To be a team with aspirations of a deep playoff run, teams almost always have to combine great offense with great defense. While such a run would be nice for the Grizzlies, realistic aspirations likely don't stretch that far.  

Recent history says that if teams can put together a strong defensive team, that team is very likely going to finish with 41 or more wins on the season. Over the previous ten regular seasons, teams with a top ten Defensive Rating have finished under .500 only seven times. That math is pretty simple to do -- out of those 100 different teams, only 7 percent of them have finished with fewer than 41 wins on the season. In a league where offense seems to rule the day, where everyone can shoot threes and everyone wants to play lightning-fast, good defense is still a strong factor associated with winning teams.

The issue for the Grizzlies is that defense can only get a team so far. If a team can't put together a reasonable offense to go along with the elite defense, then that squad is still not going to win a whole bunch of games. Of those seven teams who managed to finish under .500 in spite of elite defense, four were in the bottom five of Offensive Rating, and two were dead last. 

Grit 'n' Grind worked

When the Grizzlies were at their Grit 'n' Grind, tough-nosed, defensive-minded best, from the 2010-11 season through the 2014-15 season, they were ranked in the top 10 in Defensive Rating all five seasons, and finished in the top 5 twice. What is sometimes overlooked, though, is that those teams managed to put together decent, if not spectacular, offensive output. In those five seasons, the Grizzlies were 16th, 21st, 18th, 16th, and 13th in Offensive Rating. Again, not exactly great, but certainly good enough when paired with an elite defense to keep a team very much in the mix for a big season.

That was the profile of the 2004 NBA champion Detroit Pistons, the ultimate outlier -- the archetype for any team wanting to ride a defensive-minded core without typical superstars. They were one of the two teams that didn't finish in the top 10 in both offense and defense, yet still won a title. In the regular season, they finished with the 2nd best defense, but just the 18th best offense. Current Grizzlies front office executive Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace bucked the trends and took home a ring. 

The league has changed a lot in those intervening 15 years. Rules have taken away some of a team's ability to be extremely physical, as that Pistons team (and those elite Grizzlies defensive teams) were. In addition, teams have placed a premium on playing with pace and tempo, meaning there are more possessions crammed into every game. That's a bigger challenge for defensive-minded teams unable to score consistently.

More importantly, everyone's shooting threes, lots of them, making them at increasingly high levels. Points are coming more readily now. In the 2003-2004 season, the best defensive team allowed 91.4 points per 100 possessions. This past season, that mark was 101.5 (by the Celtics). 

To play effective defense now, most teams are becoming more flexible at every position. Jackson will help with that, as will Kyle Anderson. JaMychal Green has always been an excellent switch defender, using his quick hands to disrupt ball handlers in space. Marc Gasol may not be able to switch every time, but he did so more frequently over the last two seasons, and has done surprisingly well with it. The Grizzlies also have good size on the perimeter, with each player generally capable of guarding three positions or more.

The Grizzlies are determined to be different. In their position, it's easy to see why. They can't play like Golden State and win; Memphis is nowhere near as talented. But if they can force other teams to play like Memphis, well, that's a recipe that's been successful in the Bluff City before. Perhaps it will be again.