Musical chairs in Congress


California's addition of 3.4 million residents over the past decade allowed it to keep its 53 congressional seats - but the more dramatic population shifts within the state all but guarantee that some comfortable incumbents are going to be out of office in two years.

And at least one of those out-of-luck members of Congress is likely to come from the Bay Area.

Tony Quinn, one of the state's pre-eminent analysts of politics and demographics, said it is hard to look at the numbers in official U.S. Census data released last week and not conclude that the Bay Area will lose a House seat through redistricting. Population has remained fairly flat in the Bay Area, while rising sharply in once-rural areas to the east - a pattern that is replicated in Los Angeles and the Inland Empire.

"The loss of one (Bay Area) congressional incumbent seems likely," he said.

In ordinary times, the politicians in Sacramento would find ways to protect incumbents by drawing boundaries that would zig and zag, and twist and stretch, into crazy-shaped districts.

But this is no ordinary time. California voters have handed redistricting duties to a 14-member citizens commission, which is not allowed to consider the fate of incumbents or political parties when dividing the state into 53 congressional districts, 80 Assembly districts and 40 Senate districts. Its mission is to create districts that respect city and county boundaries and reflect "communities of interest" instead of politicians' self-interest. Instead of working behind closed doors, the commissioners are embarking on a listening tour that will involve about 30 public hearings up and down the state.

The bipartisan commission, a diverse group of overachievers, appears steeped in earnestness about the restoration of an honest process.

"This is very much like being on a jury," said Commissioner Stanley Forbes, an independent bookstore owner and Yolo County farmer who has a law degree from Vanderbilt.

"Remember democracy?" said Commissioner Cynthia Dai, a management consultant with an MBA from Stanford and degrees in electrical engineering and computer science from UC Berkeley.

The radicalism of this change should become apparent when the commission unveils its first draft of the maps, most likely in early June.

Some incumbents are in for a rude awakening, especially those who find themselves with their home in the same district as another incumbent - something that almost never happens when politicians draw their own lines.

It should be noted that members of Congress are not required to live in the districts they represent.

"I'm telling everybody to invest in a moving company - they're going to be making a lot of money," said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant and publisher of the California Target Book.

Even though Democratic partisans put up the most resistance to the 2008 and 2010 ballot measures that empowered the citizens commission - Democrats control both houses of the Legislature, which drew the lines in the old system - Republicans may have the most to fear from a process that is blind to incumbency. The old way was akin to pro wrestling: There was always an element of theater in the howls and grimaces from the minority party. Incumbents of both parties were in on the deal to protect each other.

"The gerrymander of 2000 was drawn to keep as many Latinos as possible out of white Republican districts," Hoffenblum said. "That isn't going to happen this time around."

Garry South, a top-drawer Democratic strategist from Los Angeles, noted that the redistricting after the 2000 census carved out safe districts for Republicans in the Inland Empire and areas that were becoming increasingly Latino and Democratic. Those population shifts have only accelerated in the past decade.

The 2010 figures showed the statewide Latino population has grown 28 percent, the Asian population (another strong voting segment for Democrats) 31 percent - with heaviest population shifts to the valleys and foothills where Republicans have historically fared best. Orange County, once a GOP stronghold, went 67.9 percent for Ronald Reagan in 1980. It's become increasingly diverse - and Democratic. Sen. John McCain carried the county with just 50.2 percent of the vote in 2008.

South likes to cite a little-known fact that helps explain why California Democrats defied a national GOP tide in 2010: Republicans do not have a majority of registered voters in any of the 53 congressional or 120 legislative districts. GOP statewide registration is at 30 percent - and falling, he noted.

"The Republicans could lose five or six congressional seats in 2012," South suggested. Democrats now hold 34 of the 53 seats.

In a visit to The Chronicle last week, Dai (a Democrat) and Forbes (decline-to-state) reported that the commissioners take seriously their charge to insulate the process from its effects on particular parties or politicians.

"That," said Forbes, "just isn't going to be part of our thinking."

Prepare for plenty of political shockwaves when these new maps emerge.

John Diaz is The Chronicle's editorial page editor. You can e-mail him at