FG employment programmes mostly jobs for the boys –President, Financial economists society, Nwaogwugwu

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In this email interview with EVEREST AMAEFULE, Dr Isaac Nwaogwugwu, a public sector economist at the University of Lagos and President, Fiscal and Financial Economists Society of Nigeria, speaks on the need for efficient policy to address Nigeria’s growing unemployment crisis

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s unemployment rate rose from 27 per cent to 33.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2020. How bad is the situation?

The situation is not just bad, it is precarious. It is endemic. It is contagious. It is pervasive. It is reflective of structural defects as well as poor policy articulation and implementation that have come to characterise our economy. That statistics throws to our faces the ugly picture of the daily experiences of Nigerians on increased poverty and decline in general well-being consequent on badly damaged income earning capacity.

Can the growth in unemployment be attributed to COVID-19 or are there structural errors in the economy that breed unemployment in the country?

It might not be so easy to blame the current situation of unemployment in the country on COVID-19 pandemic as the trend of this pervasive phenomenon has been steep since 2015 when the unemployment rate was below 10 per cent. Nevertheless, the global pandemic may have exacerbated the magnitude of the problem through its impact on the capacity of production.

However, there exists a strong disconnect between policy persuasion, design and implementation on the subject, which has given fillip to the acute problem of joblessness. The policy designers, most likely, do not appreciate or clearly understand the hydra-headed nature of the unemployment crisis in the country, hence the seeming confusion on how to tackle it.

The NBS statistics also showed that under employment reduced by about six per cent. Should the citizens rejoice over this development?

Underemployment is underemployment and there is nothing to rejoice about it as such irrespective of its direction. The percentage point reduction might as well be incidental rather than as a result of a deliberate and targeting action of the government. Otherwise the other unemployment variables would have as well shown rosy pictures. The picture is a bit blurred now. What happens in the next quarter will make it clearer.

In some states, the unemployment crisis is higher. Imo State’s figure is as high as 56.64 per cent. What are the sub-national governments not doing right?

There is little or anything the sub-national governments are doing right in order to create jobs. This is obviously consequent on their constrained fiscal capacity and gross misapplication of scarce resources at their disposal. The case of Imo State may have been worse than other states because of overflow of graduates at all levels and highly constrained production base in addition to the political crisis engendered since the 2019 gubernatorial election results and the crisis of legitimacy it enthroned. The unpleasant situation is generally the same across the states.

To what extent can education be held responsible for unemployment in the country? It appears that the educational system has not adapted to the challenges of the time.

Unemployment is a measurable concept and from the NBS report we already know its magnitude in the country. The same may not be the case with education although we have proxy measures of the same. It, therefore, may not be feasible for me to say the extent our education system can be held responsible for the rising unemployment in Nigeria.

However, I am of the view that we need to revisit our curriculum at different stages and levels of education – basic, tertiary, vocational, conventional, technical, formal and informal. The emphasis should be on producing job creators rather than job seekers.

Do you see a correlation between the rate of unemployment and the level of insecurity in the country or could it be insecurity that led to unemployment through low productivity?

There is a general prima facie thinking that unemployment is positively associated with crime and insecurity. I won’t make that generalisation here. There are different and overtly dangerous dimensions to insecurity in our land. Unemployment may just be a small aspect of that bigger problem.

Government has a lot of interventionist programmes aimed at propelling the economy and creating employment opportunities. How do you assess these programmes? Why is it that they don’t seem to be producing the required results?

These are oftentimes independent and ad hoc programmes, which are usually structured around individuals, institutions or even geographical zones. Most of these programmes are poorly articulated and do not fit into the comprehensive unemployment policy of the country, that is, if we have anything like that. They are mostly jobs for the boys. There is the need to revisit their essences, which gave rise to them in the first place, and then tinker with their design and operational framework. Otherwise, they will continue to serve a major fiscal leakage point of the budget.

Let’s assume that the government has failed in enabling young people to get employment. What actions should individuals and families take at their levels? Migrate to foreign lands?

The government has never been and will not be a sole creator of jobs for the youth. Government (public sector) simply complements the efforts of the individuals, households and firms (private sector) in job creation. Of course, individuals and families have a role to play in averting the unemployment doomsday. But we have an overbearing government that has more or less asserted itself in every sector of the economy and in the process has created a lot of distortion and obstacles that stand on the way of every attempt individuals and families make towards employment generation in all business forms, especially the Small and Medium Enterprises.

The problems range from poor physical and financial infrastructure to regulatory and tax bottlenecks. Migrating to a foreign land is definitely not the option.

Assuming you are an adviser to the President or a governor on employment, how will you advise them to handle the current unemployment challenges?

The government should define its unemployment policy in unambiguous terms. It should be comprehensive, targeting and part of the development policy of the country. Ad hoc and piecemeal interventionist programmes packaged and dressed up as unemployment policy will have minimal impact on the phenomenon. They may (most likely) be counterproductive.    ,,

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