


Industry Exposure Intensity by Country

Breakdown of Industry Exposure

Latest Update: March 20, 2020

As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has progressed, IBISWorld has continued to evaluate best approaches to measuring exposures. The early impacts focused on trade have given way to solidifying domestic economic impacts with direct relationships to pandemic containment. As a result, the exposure model has been tilted toward the effects of social distancing efforts and the materializing impacts on demand. This has been accomplished by analyzing industries that rely on in-person business and including this exposure into the overall exposure intensity level. In addition to the inclusion of this variable, the list of business environment risks has been expanded to accommodate our evolving perspective on industry exposures. As the situation has deteriorated, exposures to consumer demand, employment disruptions, securities markets, and business investment have been added to the model.

March 18, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak is affecting organizations and industries around the world. IBISWorld is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating analysis efforts with our industry teams to keep you in the know. This exposure analysis tool will help you detect potential points of exposure that will inform your strategy and guide our work to integrate the latest trends into our industry research.

This map highlights the countries where IBISWorld is measuring industry exposure, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. Within the map, countries are highlighted by the share of industries with High exposure.

How to Use This Tool

Selecting a sector from the left of screen will populate a sortable list of industries. Industries are sortable by their trade exposure to China, supply chain exposure to trade, and exposure to business environment risks and an overall exposure intensity level. This top-level analysis provides an indicator of exposure to early disruptions already resulting from the virus as well as areas of interest for potential further research.



Update: March 20, 2020

The core methodology of the listing has not been changed; however, new variables have been added to the overall exposure intensity level and the sub-components have been re-weighted. The existing exposures to China and known disruption in productivity and demand are still a key component of the analysis. As the situation in different countries has progressed, the near-term effects of government guidance, market volatility, corporate guidance, and early consumer response have solidified. This has resulted in a greater emphasis on identifying quantifiable exposures in effected industries that had originally been targeted for more qualitative responses. Trade exposures and the related supply chain exposures remain an important point of study and are likely to be increasingly relevant in the longer-term if the current shocks have a lasting impact on global demand or create paradigm shifts in trade.

The definitions section has been updated to reflect new model parameters. Of note, industries with a direct relationship with the effects of social distancing efforts have been identified and weighted accordingly. This includes two tiers for varying aspects of exposure. For example, Accommodation and Food Services are given a higher weight in response to known operational disruptions, whereas Retail Trade industries may not be experiencing direct losses as consumers continue to stock up. Additionally, the number of economic drivers cross-referenced against industry exposures has been increased dramatically. As the outlook as deteriorated, it has become necessary to include a broader set of external performance threats to industries in each country. These alterations result in a new distribution of exposure levels within the changed categories, which means the cut-offs for “High”, “Medium” and “Low” have been altered to represent the new underlying distribution. Additionally, the weightings in the aggregation to the overall Industry Exposure level have been adjusted to reflect new opinions. There are now 5 sub-components, each scored 0 to 1. Trade, China Factors have equal weights using a multiplier of 1. Supply Chain Links are weighted with a multiplier of 2. Business Environment Risks and a Social Distancing dummy are weighted with a multiplier of 3.

March 18, 2020

The exposure listings in the table are designed to identify industries that may require special attention in dealing with the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The metrics chosen for the analysis follow IBISWorld’s available data at the time of publication. Importantly, the presentation of exposure provides no discrete measure of exposure, nor does it assign an explicit direction or intensity. The purpose of this analysis is to leverage the body of research available in IBISWorld’s database and study the existing exposures. Trade exposure with China is chosen as a starting point due to the early progression of the disease and the operational disruptions that have already occurred.

For most countries researched by IBISWorld, material disruptions to production are less easily highlighted. These early disruptions may require attention in industries with direct trade exposure; material disruption in local production is likely to be due to second-hand exposure in the supply chain. The broader disruption to global trade is captured with the overall Exposure Intensity with a measure of direct industry exposure to imports and exports. Business Environment Risks have been chosen to reflect existing exposures to travel and as a method of identifying industries where key economic indicators are likely to have an altered path. By aggregating the factors, the goal is to demonstrate specific potential exposures in addition to an overall measure of how multiple factors can magnify total exposure in during a negative situation.

As more information becomes available IBISWorld will continue to reassess the information used to highlight exposures and will update information as needed.