RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Mar ’20 soybean prices continue to descend further since the new year highs. There was so much hope for Chinese purchases when looking forwards to a signed trade deal agreement, and a lot of premium pumped into prices along with it. However, after the deal was signed and before the ink was dry, prices broke-out to the downside and have washed out. Part of it could have been buy the rumor, sell the fact. It could have been the fact that Trump has yet to pull off the tariffs on China. What we do know is there has been a lack of significant Chinese purchases and demand concerns have been heavy, even more with China going on lock-down while attempting to contain the recent viral outbreak. All this as we approach the Brazilian harvest which only encourages bearish traders. But there are signs of hope! There is firm support for Mar ’20 Soybeans at roughly 903’0, which was tested today and rejected. Prices at the time of writing are begging to rise and ideally close positive. Is it that this mammalian-based virus has buyers seeking veggie alternatives? Or was China just waiting for better prices to offset the tariffs still in place?

Eric Scoles
