A Sensitivity Analysis of the HCM 2000 Delay Model with the Factorial Design Method


Abstract: The sensitivity of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 delay model to its parameters was investigated with the factorial design method. The study results suggest that the arrival flow, the saturation flow, and the green signal time are the main parameters that significantly affect the average control delay estimated by the delay model. Additionally, the multi-parameter interactions of the arrival flow-saturation flow and the arrival flow-green signal time have major effects on the model-estimated average control delay. The study results also demonstrate that the analysis period and the cycle length do not seem to have major effects on the estimation of the average control delay. A further factorial analysis performed to investigate the effect of parameters on the uniform delay showed that the green signal time and the cycle length appeared to significantly affect the uniform delay.

Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, Factorial design method, HCM 2000 delay model, Uniform delay, Incremental delay

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