Order, timing and chance
in The Trump revolt
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Because of name recognition and his status as a celebrity, Donald Trump had very significant start-up advantages over other 'outsider' candidates such as Dr Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina. At the same time, the votes of those who opposed him were split between rival contenders and Trump was implicitly hailed, despite comments and claims that would have killed off any other candidacy, as a victor with the support of only about a third of the voters. Timing and sequencing and the order in which candidates withdrew from the race then played a part. Even at the end of the campaign, there were chance events that probably further damaged Hillary Clinton's chances of victory. Even if it is assumed that that all the votes would have been given to Clinton had the candidates not stood, analysis suggests it is likely that she would still have lost.


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