Monday, August 27, 2018


Aesop over at the Raconteur Report has been writing posts about the probable effects of a hot civil war or a Ebola (or similar) pandemic in North America.

My personal opinion is that he has been knocking the ball out of the park.

My humble contribution is to try to make it a bit more concrete.

Consider that the cost of delivering a gallon of diesel or gasoline to a Forward Operating Base in a war zone is on the order of $400-to-$1000 per gallon.  That is not because the US Military is inefficient.  It is because they have learned, the hard way, that fuel deliveries that are insufficiently armored end up in enemy hands.  It costs that much to ensure that the fuel ends up going to the right users.

In the event of a civil war, you will be living in a Forward Operating Base.

Consider what your life will be like when prices rise by a factor of 100X to 200X.  In practical terms, that means you will consume 1% of what you currently consume now.

You might only have 20 square feet of heated space to sleep in.

You might only ride 100 miles in a motor vehicle in a year.

You will consider yourself lucky to have 2000 Calories a day of beans-and-rice or grits-n-gravy or taters-n-taters.

You will have zero new clothes or footwear for a year.

You will do well to have 1.2 gallons of potable water per day.

A bottle of ibuprofen or diphenhydramine will cost $500.

Consider what that will do to your lifestyle and to the US economy.


  1. I live in a desert with 3,000,000's not even going to be that pretty here.

    1. Hi Judy:

      Thanks for reading and thanks for commenting. It won't be pretty anywhere. Even the Amish buy much of what they need at Walmart.

      But you are right, large cities in the desert had the greatest overshoot in their carrying capacity and will likely be hit the hardest.
