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On the Welfare Costs of Consumption Uncertainty

Опубликовано на портале: 28-10-2007
NBER Working Papers. 2006.  No. 12763.
Тематический раздел:
Satisfactory calculations of the welfare cost of aggregate consumption uncertainty require a framework that replicates major features of asset prices and returns, such as the high equity premium and low risk-free rate. A Lucas-tree model with rare but large disasters is such a framework. In a baseline simulation, the welfare cost of disaster risk is large - society would be willing to lower real GDP by about 20% each year to eliminate all disaster risk, including wars. In contrast, the welfare cost from usual economic fluctuations is much smaller, though still important - corresponding to lowering GDP by around 1.5% each year.

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См. также:
Gregory N. Mankiw
Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff