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Prospect Buying Frenzy

Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:42 am
by Kato
It's the time of the year were you drop your old-batter/pitcher for the next big thing!
I'm playing in a 14-team dynasty-league and playoffs/end of season (=start of a new season) are in front of us.
In the course of a season I picked some rosterworthy prospects on my "watch list" and in the past couple of weeks I've seen more and more going from Free Agency to a competitors team.

The transaction report reads like a list of the top-50 prospects. Couple of teams are stacked with prospects (some I've never heard of).
Big names like Baez, Bryant, Correa, Springer etc. were taken since the beginning of the season and kept like a treasure.
Everyone (inculding me) is hoping for the diamond in the rough (I took a "gamble" on Oscar Taveras, Xander Bogaerts and C.Yellich and some P as well - and pass on attractive trade offers)

Thus sometimes I'm asking myself - is it worth it?
How can we know (or hope) that this prospect/rookie will be a better player than an established player on the FA-list/ roster?
Is it a psychological thing to keep a player who might play at the end of the season cause he has the "stuff".
Should I join the hype and buy into the rookie/prospect market and not miss an opportunity?

Sometimes I think- what the heck!, you're filling your roster full of "unproven" (in the bigs) guys with name-values, I'll take the opportunity and add the best available players (which you can't add because a prospect is blocking the roster spot).
Other times I think I'm missing the opportunity to go after a future-great-top-50 player for cheap (yeah, he's blocking a valuable roster spot but he will be big next year, or maybe the year after next)

Is it (for fantasy purpose) better to go after known and established players and sell high on big future names or is it worth to keep a prospect under any circumstances (despite an offer you can't resist)

I know: It depends (league size, roster/bench spots, depth of the waiver wire, is he a top-10 prospect, etc.)
Often it's said: "if you can win your league now, do the trade" - but in dynasty you have to ask yourself - what about next year? If I sell my "treasure" (prospects) now, how can I keep up the next years?
Do I take the chance and pass on trading a prospect for the sake of my team...

What are your experiences with this issue?

If I miss on a big name I often find myself saying: "there will be a new chance for the "sure-next-thing" next year - and the vicious circle starts again

[I know there's a blog on razzball where the "hot hand"-approach is compared to stay-put-approach. (haven't seen it for a while) and would love to the see outcome.]

Re: Prospect Buying Frenzy

Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 8:49 am
by Grey
You should ask the prospect guy: