Thursday, May 28, 2009

CentVingtCinq Updated

The Quebec provincial wing of the site, CentVingtCinq, has been updated with the latest polls from CROP and Léger Marketing. In short, the Parti Québécois and Liberals are dead-locked with 59 seats apiece in the 125-seat National Assembly, with the ADQ way behind at 5 seats and Québec Solidaire with 2.

At the federal level, there are some things to take from the latest polling numbers in Quebec. The PQ has been polling at around 40%, which is about as well as the Bloc Quebecois has been doing. The ADQ has been polling a little under 10%, which is a little worse than the Conservatives have been doing.

The coincidence is even stronger in my two projections. Here, the Bloc Quebecois is projected to have 37.9% of the vote in Quebec, while on CentVingtCinq the Parti Quebecois is projected to have 37.8% support. The two parties are sister organisations. Most Bloc members are also PQ members, and with such a close similarity in popular support one has to believe their voters are also shared.

Here, the Conservatives are projected to have 14.6% support in Quebec, only slightly higher than the ADQ's projected 12.0%. These two organisations are not sister organisations like the BQ and PQ, but they share a lot of the same voters. While one can't directly equate ADQ and CPC support in Quebec, it is probably a good indication of what each party's floor and ceiling is at the moment. The Conservatives probably can't go lower than the 8% to 9% the ADQ is currently polling at, and the ADQ probably can't go higher than the 15% or so the Conservatives are currently polling at.

It is more difficult to find similarities between federal Liberal and provincial Liberal support. While they share many of the same voters, the parties aren't affiliated and there is a lot of vote swapping between the PLQ and all of the federalist parties in Ottawa. The NDP also don't have a counterpart in Quebec, though Québec Solidaire is probably as close as it gets. However, QS is a sovereigntist party which muddies the waters some.

Green Party and Parti Vert votes definitely mirror each other. The Green Party of Canada is projected to have 4.7% support in Quebec while the Green Party of Quebec is projected to have 5.1% support. The PVQ has proven to be very successful, comparatively speaking, in anglophone ridings of Montreal. Voters there feel they have no other option if they dislike what the provincial Liberals are doing. The Green Party of Canada would do well to exploit the success the PVQ has had in this region.