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Egypt without Mubarak, Tunisia after Bin Ali: theory, history and the ‘Arab Spring’

Abstract Focusing on Egypt and Tunisia the present contribution first analyses the scope and limits of political change prompted by the large-scale protests that in early 2011 led to the resignation of the two veteran presidents Zin al-Abdin Bin Ali and Husni Mubarak. In a second step it examines some broader theoretical implications of popular contestation, government responses and processes of regime transformation in both countries. Events over the past 15 months further question dominant approaches to the study of collective action in authoritarian contexts; however, contrary to recent claims, they fail to invalidate – in part even confirm – structural non-culturalist explanations for the longevity of authoritarian regimes in Arab countries. Above all, the contribution argues that some critical differences between the anciens régimes in Egypt and Tunisia account for the partly divergent dynamics and outcomes of change so far. At the same time, rather similar long-term processes of state formation have shaped the politics of both countries in ways that differ substantially from most other Arab countries.