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To Sample or Not Sample

Suppose a prospective oil field is partitioned into a finite number of lots. Conventional wisdom suggests that failing to find oil on one lot is bad news regarding subsequent exploration of other lots, due to a 'common pool' effect. Here we identify situations where failing to find oil on a lot may be good news. Similar considerations may be relevant in the testing of chemical substances for a specific pharmaceutical use. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester, 2006.