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Ecological Analysis of Gastroschisis Incidence Decline in Liaoning, China, 2006-2016

Background: A gastroschisis incidence decline has recently been reported in Liaoning, China, from 2006-2015; we suspect that this decline could be associated with the fall in industrial manufacturing activities.

Methods: The outcome variable, gastroschisis incidence, was from a previous publication. The industrial manufacturing activities were measured by relative job participation and production in the primary and secondary economic sectors, and the corresponding data were collected in 14 cities from 2005 to 2015. The general linear model and a random-effect Poisson regression model were performed to assess the association and time-series trend of gastroschisis with the manufacturing activities.

Results: The relative job participation in the first economic sector was marginally associated with gastroschisis incidence in 2006 (p=0.070), but more significantly associated (Beta=-0.040; p=0.014) in the cross-sectional and time-series analysis with one-year lag in the outcome variable.

Conclusion: The gastroschisis incidence decline in Liaoning is likely due to the reduced job participation in manufacturing and heavy industry, which might be an indication of reduced risk exposure associated with the industrial manufacturing activities.