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Study on the Transmission of COVID-19 in Hubei Province Based on SEIR Model with Intervention Measures


 Background At the end of 2019, an unidentified coronavirus, named as “COVID-19” by WHO, has broken out in Wuhan, Hubei Province. We aimed to simulate the development trend of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei as well as estimate the number of COVID-19 cases with the government control policies and traffic control.Methods We collected the COVID-19 data in Wuhan and Hubei (January 1, 2020 to April 8, 2020) and simulated three situations about COVID-19 epidemic trend: non-interference, government controlling behavior and traffic control by the SEIR model to analyzed the development and influence of the epidemic.Results We adopted the SEIR model to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei peaked on the 107th day without human control, and the number in Wuhan peaked on the 51st day after the lockdown of Wuhan. The number of new cases in Hubei and Wuhan presented a skewed normal distribution in the time series. Government intervention and traffic control had a certain inhibitory effect on the daily increase of COVID-19 cases. During the period from January 23 to April 8, 2020, there was a difference of 1,253,433 cases between the daily number of confirmed cases and the actual number of confirmed cases in Hubei under the simulated state of without human control. Also, there was a difference of 953,202 cases between thedaily number of confirmed cases and the actual number of confirmed cases in Wuhan under the simulated state of without human control.Conclusion The actual COVID-19 outbreak quantity conforms to the simulation results, secondly the government control behavior and the traffic control can effectively inhibit COVID-19 to spread and the efficient can reach 52%. In other countries or regions, an effective intervention measures can control the spread of the epidemic. The earlier the control started and the stronger the control intensity was, the more effective the intervention for the COVID-19 epidemic was, so appropriate to cut off the route of transmission as soon as possible.