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The political economy and socio‐economic impact of China's three Gorges dam

Over the past twenty years, China's gross domestic product has increased at an average annual rate of 9.8 per cent (China Statistical Bureau 1999, 57). To sustain such growth, the Chinese government has to make huge investments in economic infrastructure, especially transport, communications and electricity. By far its largest and most risky investment is the Three Gorges Dam. The success of the dam will enable future economic growth, but if it fails China's economy will falter. The industrial sector accounts for nearly 72 per cent of total energy consumption, driving at an average annual growth rate of 15 per cent for the past 20 years (China Statistical Bureau 1999, 424). Ranked second in the world, China in 1996 had an installed capacity of 236 million kilowatts of power (China Daily 29 July 1997, 5) but per capita generation was only 5 per cent and 20 per cent of the levels in the United States and South Korea respectively. Energy comes mainly from four sources: coal (75 per cent), petroleum (17.5 per cent), natural gas (1.6 per cent) and hydropower (5.9 per cent) (China Statistical Bureau 1997, 215). The use of hydropower is, in part, technologically inevitable because China has always relied on hydraulic technology for water conservancy, irrigation, flood control and navigation (Needham 1981). A monument to Chinese skills is the Dujiang dam on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, built 2,200 years ago for flood control and irrigation and still in sound working condition. Constrained by a lack of finances in the past, China remains rich in untapped hydropower resources as only 30 per cent have been exploited, in contrast to industrialised countries in Europe and the United States where hydropower has already been fully exploited. However, the Chinese are now rapidly developing