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Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 Equity Price

We study the dynamic relationship between movements in consumer confidence and equity prices. By conducting the level OLS tests, we have observed a strong contemporaneous relationship between consumer confidence and equity prices. A further VAR analysis justifies that one time lag S&P 500 return will granger cause the change of current consumer confidence. An impulse response test shows that a positive equity price shock will lead to a higher consumer confidence, this indicates that equity price will be treated as a leading factor for people to decide whether to consume more or less in the future.