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Long-term predictability of winter teleconnection indices and their relationship to seasonal temperature extremes in Europe

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. Through predicting these patterns, skillful forecasts of weather parameters like surface temperature can be generated, which in turn are used in a variety of applications (e.g., predictions of energy demand). A previous study (Weisheimer et.al., 2017) found that the NAO was subject to decadal variability during the twentieth century, affecting its longterm predictability. During recent decades, predictions for the NAO index have shown considerable skill, but this is likely to change during future periods of reduced predictability.