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Stepwise Geoadditive Modelling of the Ideal Family Size in Nigeria

Objective: Family size substantially contributes to an improved child and maternal well-being and economic growth of a nation. In this paper, we aim at determining possible determinants of ideal or preferred family size as desired by married women in Nigeria. Material and Methods: An extracted dataset from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey were analysed using a Bayesian stepwise approach that involves simultaneous selection of variables and smoothing parameters. The model is geo-additive it allows for geographical variations at a micro level of states, as well as both linear and nonlinear effects of variables to be investigated. Within a Bayesian context, we assigned appropriate priors on all the parameters and functions. Results: Findings reveal that substantial geographical variations in the preference of family size exist across the states. Further, the results from the spatial analysis showed that married women from the Northern states have the desire for more children, as compared to their southern counterparts. Respondent’s level of education, type of marital union, sex of household head, age, wealth index, religion, working status, and the number of siblings are significantly associated with their ideal family size. Mother’s age at first birth is significantly non-linearly related to the ideal family size. Conclusion: Government and policymakers need to pay attention to findings from this study, as it can help in designing better strategies that will enable the attainment of the Millenium Development Goals that are firmly related to fertility and family sizes.