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Confidence Interval Estimation of Apparent Residential Load with PV System Based on Just-In-Time Modeling

In Japan, a number of residences have introduced PV system after the Feed-in-tariff program started in 2009. After the program is over, households that consume PV power by themselves instead of selling it will increase. With this backdrop, in this paper, we perform the confidence interval estimation of the next-day apparent residential load, i.e., the difference amount between the actual residential load and PV output, with Just-In-Time modeling. Some numerical examples, which demonstrate the validity of the proposed method, are presented.