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The shadow of the future and the shadow of the past: Studying the impact of climate change on human behaviour

There is consent among researchers that climate change results in increasing number of extreme weather events, migration and even the need to resettle entire populations. Understanding the behaviour of climate refugees and people exposed to extreme events are key in order to avoid emergency mass movements or even conflict over natural and social resources. I propose a research project with two related parts that identify the human reaction to the impacts of climate change by combining a comparative research design and the use of economic experiments, survey methods and modelling techniques. The first part of the project builds upon a unique sample of experimentally measured risk and solidarity preferences of 800 Filipinos taken in 2012 in. In order to assess the impact of the damages induced by typhoon 'Haiyan' and the following recovery aid we will carry out two follow-up studies with the same people in order to obtain panel data on solidarity and risk preferences for robust statistical inference.The second part of the project will focus on the effects of anticipated forced and permanent relocation. The major innovation offered by the proposed set-up is a sample of inhabitants from atoll and island communities where the communities only differ in the timing of the expected relocation due to sea level rise with additional use of priming techniques. The set-up allows studying how preferences and behavior of people change with the prospect of being severely affected by climate change and whether and how these affect short and medium-term adaptation strategies such as an increased extraction of natural resources and migration.