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Asymmetry of the technological cycle of disruptive innovations

ABSTRACT A vast literature exists on disruptive technologies. However, some fundamental questions are unknown, such as: how to measure the growth of disruptive technologies in competitive markets? How is the pathway of technological cycle of disruptive innovations? The study confronts these questions here by developing a theoretical and empirical analysis, which endeavours to explain the behaviour of disruptive technologies that generate industrial and corporate change. A simple model is proposed to measure the relative growth of disruptive technologies compared to established technologies. This analytical approach is applied on the evolution of technologies in the US sound-recorded music industry. Empirical findings suggest general properties that can expand disruptive innovation theory, namely: (1) disruptive technology has a disproportionate growth in markets compared to established technologies; (2) technological cycle of disruptive technology has up wave phase longer than down wave phase (asymmetric shape of technological cycle) and (3) disruptive technology has a series of major and minor technological advances of its own that pave the way for dominance on other established technologies in markets. Best practices for management of technology are discussed.