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Exchange Rate and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Nigeria (1981-2019)

Exchange rate has become one of the major issues Nigerian economy has been confronted with in the recent times especially since one of the goals of all economies is to have a stable exchange rate. The concept of exchange rate was introduced into the analysis of economic growth and development. This study examined the impact of exchange rate on agricultural exports in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. The Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality test were employed as analytical tools to test for the existence of a relationship between the variables. This research generally places importance on the effect of interest rate, exchange rate, total exports, inflation rate and loans to the agricultural sector on agricultural exports. However, it is mainly concerned with the relationship between exchange rate and agricultural exports. The study establishes that exchange rate significantly affects agricultural exports and there is no causality between them. By implication, exchange rate has a direct or positive relationship with agricultural exports in Nigeria in the long run. This therefore implies that an increase in exchange rate will lead to an increase in the level of agricultural exports in the long run.