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Bi-level project simulation methodology to integrate superintendent and project manager in decision making: Shutdown/turnaround applications

The critical path method (CPM) provides the standard approach to scheduling construction projects. Limited crew resources compound CPM analysis by imposing resource availability constraints. However, there is no generalized methodology yet to quantitatively determine the optimal quantities of resources to execute specific work packages based on CPM analysis. Furthermore, in project evaluation and review technique (PERT) simulation, the occurrence of uncertain events is represented by probability distributions for activity durations in an implicit fashion. In this paper, a bi-level project simulation methodology is proposed to (1) determine the optimal resource quantities and activity times for each work package and (2) estimate total project duration and man-hour budget at the upper level for project planning through Monte Carlo simulation, based on defining a limited quantity of likely scenarios for each work package. An industrial plant shutdown and turnaround project serves as case study to illustrate application of the proposed methodology.