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Predictors of Threat and Error Management: Identification of Core Nontechnical Skills and Implications for Training Systems Design

In normal flight operations, crews are faced with a variety of external threats and commit a range of errors that have the potential to impact negatively on the safety of airline operations. The effective management of these threats and errors therefore forms an essential element of enhancing performance and minimizing risk. Recent research has reinforced the need to examine a range of nontechnical or crew resource management skills that form threat and error countermeasures. This article provides an analysis of the predictors of threat and error management in normal flight operations within the context of a Southeast Asian airline. Through the structured observation of crews' performance during normal flight operations, data were collected in relation to a set of contextual factors and nontechnical skills. Crews' threat and error management actions were then analyzed in relation to these factors, and predictive models of threat and error management at various phases of flight were developed. The results of this study demonstrate the ways in which this type of data analysis can highlight the strengths and weaknesses of operational performance and suggest that this type of performance evaluation can offer individual organizations invaluable information for enhanced training system design through the further development of scenario-based training.