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Economic growth and democratization

Using data on 106 countries that were autocracies at some point from 1963 to 2004, we test whether economic growth in a given year has an effect on the likelihood of a democratizing event in the following year. Fixed effects logit and linear probability model results indicate that autocracies are more likely to democratize following growth slowdowns. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use a dual instrumental variable approach in which both external economic growth and rainfall variation are used as instruments for income growth. Results using either of these instruments confirm that negative economic shocks increase the likelihood of democratization.