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A Comparative Study on Multi-method of Population Spatialization in Lanzhou Based on Mobile Phone Positioning Data∗

With the popularity of smart phones, mobile phone positioning data tends to critically impact emergency rescue for sudden disasters. In the present study, The city of Lanzhou is taken as the study area. Based on mobile phone positioning data, demographic data and POI data, this study uses single factor model, binomial model and mobile phone positioning rate to simulate urban population distribution, and analyzes the characteristics of urban daily population change. As indicated from the results, ① the accuracy of the mobile phone positioning rate model is significantly higher than that of the single factor model and binomial model since positioning rate method reflects the regional differences. ②The population mobility in Lanzhou is insignificant in one day, and people use their phones more frequent at 13pm than at 10am, with 20pm being the most frequent of the day. ③ When the model is used for a quick assessment of earthquake casualties, the death toll is estimated to be lower if the quake struck at 13pm. At 20pm and 10am, people are more indoors, and the casualties in these two periods are more serious.