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Predictors of outcome type in treated problem drinkers.

Fifty successful controlled drinkers, 45 abstainers and 44 relapsers who had been followed up intensively for a minimum of 1 year were compared on 32 pretreatment variables in an attempt to isolate those which would be predictors of outcome type. Treatment was behaviorally oriented, and all subjects except for those with liver damage were left to make their own choice of treatment goal. The results showed that the best predictors of abstinence were: previous contact with Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A.); medium period of previous abstinence; having been initiated to seek help by a specialist; having been a periodic drinker, and drinking exclusively alone or socially. Controlled drinkers were more likely to be continuous drinkers, were not likely to have attended A.A. or to have abstained for a significant period of time, were likely to have relatives with a drinking problem, to have been motivated to seek help by a friend or a relative and to be less discriminating about the social drinking environment. Relapsers were more likely to be unemployed, to have a history of A.A. attendance and to have had a short period of previous abstinence. They were most likely to have liver damage and therefore advised to abstain. The results were interpreted as suggesting that outcome is likely to be influenced by the subjects' cognitions, by past behavioral expectations and experience of abstinence, as well as having the freedom of a choice of goals for recovery.