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[A model of ecological hazard and social tension for the description of the health deterioration risk in the Russian population].

A model for quantitative evaluation of risks from long-exposure to high-intensity anthropogenic factors and chronic psychoemotional stress is presented. The model has been based on the concept of G. Seliet concerning the development of non-specific physiological reactions (the general adaptation syndrome) to chronic comparatively intensive stresses. It describes the process of time-dependent depletion of the compensatory body reserve and the probability of regulation disorders and disruption of the adaptation to single factors or their combinations. On the population level, health risks predicted with the model are growth of death probability within a year and in a delayed period (transformation of age-specific coefficients of mortality) and a magnitude of reduction of remaining life expectancy.