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Assumption Analysis and Duration Simulation of Three-Point Estimate in PERT Technique

The three-point estimate is an essential of PERT technique. Compared to CPM, it does not only require more level of effort, but also consider the time uncertainty of activities. This paper analyzes the assumptions of three-point estimate and proposes that the assumption conditions should be formulated according to the real project environment. Accordingly, this paper provides a simple hypothetical example which is solved using PERT technique. It expected duration is simulated and computed using the software package of Crystal BallTM. The result can facilitate the application of three-point estimate in PERT technique correctively and flexibly.