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Strengthening Democratic Control : Vermont ’ s 1986 Election in Historical Perspective

Elections vary in the change they engender. In Vermont, the election of 1952 stands out as a “watershed election.“’ The Democrats achieved a level of electoral success that they have not lost since. Although Vermont elected its first Democratic governor in 1%2 and the first woman to the governorship in 1984, since 1952 there have been no great breakthroughs in electoral percentages. The Democrats simply chipped away at Republican control: a congressional seat in 1958, a senatorial seat in 1974, control of both houses of the legislature in 1986. Yogi Berra once said “the ball game ain’t over till it’s over.” For the GOP in Vermont, however, the game of one-partyism is indeed over. The electoral playing field in Vermont is even. This article continues our historical treatment of political change in Vermont 2 and explores the political map of 1986 as part of an unfolding picture that has been with us through the postwar period. We seek conclusions linked to empirical data. In this we join the growing number of historians using computer technology to provide a comparative base for historical analysis. Our goal is to complement more traditional techniques. 3 We are also interested in continuity of approach so that historians of the future will be able to compare and contrast our analysis of the 1986 election with those of years past. Thus this analysis continues not only in the methodological tradition of the groundbreaking article by Daniels, Daniels, and Daniels in 1%9 (the first to use advanced statistical methods in Vermont History) but also further develops the findings of that ‘earlier article. 4 The 1986 election in Vermont was the type political scientists call “rein.Lc;?i.rcu. “The Democratic Party strengthened its position at nearly every level. Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy delivered a devastating blow to the GOP by soundly defeating the party’s most stalwart vote-getter in