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[Collection of information on indirect estimation techniques: which choice for African demography?].


 Considering the lack of statistical data, should African demographers invest their energy in developing better statistical collection methods or continue to correct existing data through the use of indirect estimation technics? The Census could be made more useful to collect satisfactory data, by increasing the number of questions asked, and by a better exploitation of its results. Unfortunately, it is an expensive operation. Retrospective studies are less expensive, but their results are questionable. Follow-up studies are more accurate, but, depending on their object and objective, they can be costly, too. Through civil registration, permanent information on demographic patterns is possible, but civil registration is underdeveloped. Its development depends on economic and human means that are missing in Africa, as well as consistent policies from African States regarding population registration. On the other hand, indirect estimation technics (eg. of Coale-Demeny, Bass, or Pichat and Pressat), are, by definition, moving away from observation: on the field, that is from demographic facts, thereby they move away from reality. It is true that the elaboration of local methods of correction of unsatisfactory data is important; it is even more important to elaborate adapted collection methods. The elaboration by the IFORD, of a new method for its surveys on Infant and Child Mortality in Africa, is a good expression of this trend, even though more experimenting is necessary to improve this method. The future of African demography lays in scientific research. This research should not only work for a better knowledge of the demographic pattern of the continent, but also elaborate the methods leading to this knowledge. For African demographers it is a strategic question.
