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Evaluation of Projected Minimum Temperatures for Northern Pakistan

Pakistan has agriculture based economy, mainly dependant on the Indus water system originates from glaciated northern mountains of Himalaya-Karakoram- Hindukush ranges. These glaciers possess a treasure of solid water which melts with high temperature and makes this precious resource available in rivers during needy times. Recent climate studies have shown a non-significant increasing trend for annual mean temperature over the mountainous areas of the Upper Indus Basin in Pakistan. This study aimed at investigation of the recent trend of global warming for this region and to test the reliability of future data generation by a statistical downscaling model “SDSM”. The period under study was 1991-2009 and the analysis was carried on mean minimum (night) temperatures. The Northern parts of Pakistan were chosen as the study area that lie along northwest of the upper Indus basin. A correlation has been processed among modeled and observed data to evaluate the satisfaction between the two datasets. For all the studied stations, very high correlation observed between the two data sets and correlation coefficient (R2) was found as 0.92, which encourage the way forward. A state of art downscale modeling systems known as SDSM (statistical down scale model) developed by Wilby and Dawson (2007) was applied for evaluation of projected minimum temperature. On the monthly scale, model under estimated temperature from 0.7°C to 1.08◦C for summer season and over estimated from 1.97°C to 3.23°C for winter season. The strong correlation suggested that SDSM can be used with reasonable level of confidence to obtain future projections of night time temperature