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Modelling Long-Term Transition from Coal-Reliant to Low-Emission Power Grid and District Heating Systems in Poland

Energy systems require technological changes towards climate neutrality. In Poland, where the power system is dominated by outdated coal-fired power plants, efforts to minimize the environmental impact are associated with high costs. Therefore, optimal paths for the development of the energy sector should be sought in order to achieve ambitious long-term strategic goals, while minimizing the negative impact on the consumers’ home budget. A methodology and a model for the development of the electricity and heat generation structure were developed and implemented in market allocation (MARKAL) modelling framework. Two scenarios were presented, i.e., business as usual (BAU) and withdrawal from coal (WFC) scenarios. The calculations showed a significant role of nuclear energy and offshore wind power in the pursuit of climate neutrality of electricity generation. In the BAU scenario, the model proposes to stay with coal technologies using carbon capture and storage systems. Withdrawal from coal (WFC scenario) makes it necessary to replace them by gas-fired power plants with CO2 sequestration. Solar energy can be used both in electricity and district heating. In order to build on the latter technological option, appropriate energy storage techniques must be developed. Geothermal energy is expected to be the key option for district heat generation in the long-term horizon. The proposed development paths guarantee a significant reduction in greenhouse gases and industrial emissions. However, complete climate neutrality is uncertain, given the current degree and dynamics of technological development.