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Mesothelioma incidence projections in South East England

We estimated the past and future age-standardised incidence rates of mesothelioma by birth cohort and by period of diagnosis in South East England. We extracted data on patients diagnosed with mesothelioma (International Classification of Diseases-10 C45) between 1960 and 2009 from the Thames Cancer Registry. We calculated the age-standardised incidence rates using the European standard population. We used age-cohort and age-period modelling to estimate the age-specific incidence rates for the 1900 to 1950 birth cohorts and the 1935 to 2034 calendar periods. A much more pronounced increase in mesothelioma incidence between 1972 and 2007 was observed in males than in females. In both sexes, the incidence rates increased in successive generations up to the 1945 birth cohort. Projection of rates in the future showed an increase in incidence in males until 2022 and a decrease thereafter. Among females, the incidence rate was predicted to increase gradually until reaching its maximum around 2027, and to remain stable thereafter. The occurrence of mesothelioma is closely linked to occupational exposure to asbestos in the 1960s and 1970s and, due to the long latency period, the incidence of mesothelioma is projected to increase until the 2020s.