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USING ANOVA TO ESTIMATE THE RELATIVE MAGNITUDE OF UNCERTAINTY IN A SUITE OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

An emerging research focus in global change studies is the identification, quantification, and communication of uncertainty. Uncertainty is a particular concern for integrated assessments, including those involving the impact of climate, as the uncertainty associated with each component of an assessment can propagate through the assessment process. This uncertainty “cascade” (Mearns and Hulme, 2001) places severe constraints on policy recommendations derived from impact assessments.