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An economic early warning approach based on Bayesian Networks mechanism?

Economic early warning (EEW) helps decision-making by judging the tendency of economic development. Active research has investigated process modeling and the methodologies of EEW. However, in real-world, features have complex relationships, and one feature is always decided by the others. Traditional EEW methods need the feature independent assumption. This paper tries to create an EEW Based on Bayesian Networks, which considers the cause and consequence to overcome this problem. The experiment indicates that our method has achieved a satisfying performance: precision of 85.71% in open test in EEW, which is a desirable precision in EEW.