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Game Theory Approaches for Evaluating the Deception-based Moving Target Defense

Moving target defense (MTD) is a proactive defensive mechanism proposed to disrupt and disable potential attacks, thus reversing the defender's disadvantages. Cyber deception is a complementary technique that is often used to enhance MTD by utilizing misinformation to deceive and mislead attackers. Deception elements, such as honeypot, honey bait, honey token, breadcrumb, and well-constructed deception scenes, can significantly increase the uncertainties for attackers. Deception-based MTD techniques can change the asymmetry situation between defenders and attackers through affecting the attacker's perception of the system. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the role of cyber deception in MTD, and few research works have evaluated the effectiveness of cyber deception. In this paper, we propose a concept of deception attack surface to illustrate deception-based moving target defense. Moreover, we propose a quantitative method to measure deception, which includes two core concepts: exposed falseness degree and hidden truth degree. We further formulate a deception game model between an attacker and a defender, in which the defender attempts to protect the entry points on the attack surface by creating or changing a deception attack surface. Furthermore, we provide a detailed example scenario and analyze the deception game's equilibrium. Finally We verify the effectiveness of our proposed method through a real attack and defense experiment.