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Emerging challenges in wind energy forecasting for Australia

Global warming and diminishing fossil fuel resources are driving the greatest shift in energy supply in the history of human society. As a result, renewable resources such as wind energy are making ever greater contributions to electricity production worldwide (Sanchez 2006). Australia is blessed with substantial wind resources due to its latitude, extensive coastline and vast unpopulated areas, and these resources have the potential to contribute significantly to our future electricity supply (Archer and Jacobson 2005). However, wind energy is not quite as simple to implement as some other energy sources. Unlike a coal-fired power station, for example, where power only stops being produced when the coal supply runs out, or there is a maintenance issue, wind farm production stops if the wind is too strong, not strong enough or suddenly changes direction. This added variability, and the inherently non-storable nature of wind energy, presents a major challenge for power system operation – how do we prevent fluctuations in the power production of a wind farm from affecting the continuity of electricity supply to the consumer? Unfortunately, we can’t control the weather, and so we need strategies to work around it instead. This can be achieved in two steps. The first is to predict the weather as accurately as possible, aiming to know any weather-related lapses in power production well in advance. The second is to use that knowledge to arrange for other sources to make up the shortfall at the appropriate time. At first sight, this might seem rather troublesome, but the energy industry already does exactly this to some extent. The operation of non-renewable resources is guided by accurate weather forecasting; for example, on a very hot day, power producers will increase supply to account for increased loads due to higher than normal usage of air conditioners. The use of an electricEmerging challenges in wind energy forecasting for Australia