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Risk Analysis and Power Project Capital Structures

The problems experienced recently in the power generation sector have permeated through from project sponsors to the financial institutions that invested, whether through debt or equity, in power projects. In many cases, insufficient attention to the careful measurement and management of risks exacerbated, if not caused, these problems. Now, as financial institutions and investors face the task of restructuring these troubled assets, it is critically important to prevent history from repeating itself by ensuring that any restructuring activities not only recognize the risks facing power generating assets, but also that those risks are communicated effectively among the various stakeholders. In addition, it is important for all of the stakeholders to understand how the restructuring process itself is influenced by risk and risk-taking behavior. This paper develops a framework for using simulation analysis as a common platform from which to communicate about financing risks and capital structure.