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Land Use Change under Population Migration and Its Implications for Human–Land Relationship

With the rural-to-urban population migration under the new era of rapid urbanization, China has experienced dramatic rural land change, especially the change in cultivated land and rural residential land, resulting in the serious uncoordinated human–land relationships in rural areas. The efficient use of these two kinds of land resources becomes one of the paramount challenges for governments to achieve sustainable and balanced rural development. This challenge highlights the need for quantifying the formation mechanism of the relationship between cultivated land and rural residential land (RCR) and exploring the corresponding relation between human–land relationships with RCR to guide the high-efficiency rural land use structure and coordinated development of human–land relationships. This study aims to quantitatively characterize the matching modes of RCR and the underlying formation mechanism via a grid-based, integrated decoupling model and multiclass explainable boosting machine analysis method. The findings are as follows: (1) The variation in cultivated land and rural residential land is characterized by quantity match and spatial mismatch. The six matching modes of RCR are strong decoupling (SD) (33.36%), weak decoupling (9.86%), recessive decoupling (4.15%), expansive negative decoupling (15.05%), weak negative decoupling (4.92%), and strong negative decoupling (SND) (18.65%). (2) Average grain product per cultivated land and population variation have the highest relative importance and play the greatest role in determining the type of matching modes. A concomitant phenomenon is noted in the matching modes; that is, SD occurs with recessive decoupling and weak negative decoupling, and the weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling occur with SND in the same conditions. (3) A significant corresponding relationship exists between the matching modes and human–land relationship, indicating that the six matching modes correspond to four different stages of the human–land relationship. The study could provide some decision-making guidance for sustainable rural development, so as to improve the differentiated land management and regional response strategies.