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Uncertainty and Variation of Remotely Sensed Lake Ice Phenology across the Tibetan Plateau

In the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the changes of lake ice phenology not only reflect regional climate change, but also impose substantial ecohydrological impacts on the local environment. Due to the limitation of ground observation, remote sensing has been used as an alternative tool to investigate recent changes of lake ice phenology. However, uncertainties exist in the remotely sensed lake ice phenology owing to both the data and methods used. In this paper, three different remotely sensed datasets are used to investigate the lake ice phenology variation in the past decade across the Tibetan Plateau, with the consideration of the underlying uncertainties. The remotely sensed data used include reflectance data, snow product, and land surface temperature (LST) data of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). The uncertainties of the three methods based on the corresponding data are assessed using the triple collocation approach. Comparatively, it is found that the method based on reflectance data outperforms the other two methods. The three methods are more consistent in determining the thawing dates rather than the freezing dates of lake ice. It is consistently shown by the three methods that the ice-covering duration in the northern part of the TP lasts longer than that in the south. Though there is no general trend of lake ice phenology across the TP for the period of 2000–2015, the warmer climate and stronger wind have led to the earlier break-up of lake ice.