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The Clash of Civilizations? Statistical Evidence from Armed Conflicts, 1989-2015

Do armed conflicts in the contemporary post-Cold War period reflect a clash of civilizations (CoC) as predicted by Samuel Huntington? This study substantially broadens and temporally extends the scope of major extant quantitative tests of the CoC thesis by assessing not only interactions among states but also interactions between states and non-state armed groups, from 1989 to 2015. Based on Chi-square and logistic regression tests, this study does not find empirical support for the CoC thesis as a basis for adopting foreign policies of civilizational containment.