{'fraction_non_alphanumeric': 0.024772708315956293, 'fraction_numerical': 0.03653348903161231, 'mean_word_length': 4.915145535273804, 'pattern_counts': {'":': 0, '<': 0, '<?xml version=': 0, '>': 0, 'https://': 1, 'lorem ipsum': 0, 'www.': 0, 'xml': 0}, 'pii_count': 0, 'substrings_counts': 0, 'word_list_counts': {'cursed_substrings.json': 13, 'profanity_word_list.json': 0, 'sexual_word_list.json': 0, 'zh_pornsignals.json': 0}}
The Prediction Number of Smear Acid Resistant Bacteria on Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis Infection Disease at Madiun City in 2021 to 2025

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Bacillus. The disease spreads in the air when people contract TB bacteria, such as coughing or sneezing. The lack of ability to anticipate the incidence of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB in Madiun City is affected by the time and number of events that have not been appropriately foreseen. There is no map of regional vulnerability based on the time of occurrence. Hence, the incidence of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB in Madiun city increases, determined by the total number of cases in 6 health centers, seven hospitals, and one prison. In 2015, there were 174 cases, then in 2019, 706 cases. The objective of this study is to predict the number of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB suffering in 2021-2025 based on gender, health centers, and prisons in Madiun City and the overall incidence of cases in 20152019 is then foreseen in 2021 to 2025. This type of research is descriptive study research by employing Eviews with the ARIMA method. The population and samples in the study were all data of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB case encompassing the sex of patients during 2015-2019 in Madiun City. The study aimed to predict the incidence of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB in 2021-2025. The results of this study revealed the projection of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB cases based on gender, health centers, hospitals, and prisons in Madiun City from 2020-2025, which experienced an increasing trend with the number of 933, 992, 1063, 1120, 1190 incidences respectively. This study is recommended for relevant agencies or health services to perform preventive efforts by involving trained policymakers and Health Cadis, particularly in preventing TB disease and reducing the high rate of predicting positive pulmonary TB smear incidences in the future.

INTRODUCTION Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi. This disease is frequently transmitted directly or indirectly from the patient to others around it through various media such as the air, vectors in the     Based on the graph above, the projected cases of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB in Demangan primary health center displayed that the number of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis is more common in women, with 10 cases reported in 2015, 12 cases reported in 2016, 10 cases reported in 2017, 11 cases reported in 2018, and 14 cases reported in 2019. In 2020, 15 cases were reported, followed by 16 in 2021, 17 in 2022, 17 in 2023, 18 in 2024, and 19 in 2025.   Based on the graph above, the projected cases of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB in Santa Clara hospital presented that Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB Disease is more prevalent in women, with 1 case reported in 2019, 1 case reported in 2020, 1 case reported in 2021, 2 cases reported in 2022, and 2 cases reported in 2023. There will be two cases in 2024, and two cases in 2025.
Prediction of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB Incidence by Gender. Based on the results of research, it is revealed the projected case data of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB in the Madiun city, which is the male sex, more case data compared to the results of projected cases of female patients. It is in accordance with the research result  displaying that cases of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB based on gender in Kendari city in 2016-2014 frequently increases every year, in which in 2014, there were 247 cases for people with acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB in male, while in female by 163 cases.
In the prediction period, in 2016-2020, it is predicted that acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB cases continue to increase, in 2020, the highest number of cases will be in the male sex with a total of 602 cases. Similar results were also revealed by previous researchers (Hastuti, et al., 2016) that the results of forecasting presented the number of pulmonary TB morbidity rates based on gender from year to year which is increase in which the highest number of cases was male sex.
According to (Dotulong, et al., 2015), the number of Pulmonary TB incidences occurring in men because men prefer high mobility than women. Thus, the possibility to be exposed is greater. Moreover, the habits such as smoking and consuming alcohol may lower the immune system, thus, it is natural that smokers and alcohol drinkers are frequently referred to as agents of pulmonary TB disease. Men possess a heavier workload, less rest, and a less healthy lifestyle.
The results of the study (Andayani, 2020) possess a prediction of pulmonary TB incidence in accordance with the sex of the most sufferers that is the male sex estimated to decrease the pulmonary TB incidences in early 2017, then increase the pulmonary TB incidence in the middle of the year after, while at the end of 2020, there is a decrease in the pulmonary TB cases, but still in small numbers than in the previous year. Meanwhile, the female sex possesses the smallest predicted incidence of pulmonary TB. In 2018 prediction, the highest number of cases was in the male sex with 222 cases, and in the female sex of 141 cases (Korua, et al., 2014).
It is corroborated by research conducted by (Mahfuzhah, 2014) in Pontianak city which revealed that statically, there is a relationship between male sex and people with pulmonary tuberculosis. Results from a (Atik, 2013) study uncovered that cases of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB disease by gender, discovered that men are 1.5 times more likely than in women.
The results of this study are in accordance with research conducted by (Mangngi, 2019) which unveiled that there is a meaningful relationship between sex and the incidence of pulmonary TB in Naibonat, East Kupang, Kupang Regency, in which the Pulmonary Tuberculosis Infection Disease at Madiun City in 2021-2025 | 177 male sex owns 2.7 times more risk of lung TB disease than the female sex (Samsugito, 2018). It is because men possess higher mobility than women and also other bad habits such as smoking and consuming alcohol causing the immune system to decrease so that it makes it easier for men infected with pulmonary TB (Pangaribuan, et al., 2020). Research in India also discovered that smokers possess a higher risk of being infected with pulmonary TB disease compared to (Nurjana, 2015). Furthermore, research from (Nurhana, et al., 2010) revealed that there is a meaningful relationship between sex and the incidence of pulmonary TB. This study states that men are more likely to suffer from pulmonary TB than women.
The results of this study as revealed by (Naga, 2012) unveiled that in men, pulmonary TB disease is higher than in women due to the habit of men who frequently smoke and consume alcoholic beverages that lower the body's defense system. Thus, it is natural that smokers and alcohol drinkers are commonly referred to as agents of pulmonary TB disease.
Prediction of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB incidence according to acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB case data. Based on the results of research demonstrated the results of data analysis time series (projection) cases of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB experiencing an increase. It is also in accordance with research  presenting that cases of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB in the period 2010-2014 tend to increase with the cases number of 255, 280, 314, 333, and 410 cases, respectively. In the prediction period, in 2016-2020, it is predicted that cases of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB continue to increase with cases of 553, 646, 752, 871, and 1003 cases, respectively. The results are in accordance with previous research (Hastuti, et al., 2016) that the results of forecasting pulmonary TB morbidity (forecasting) at the predicted period of 2013-2015 experienced an increase in cases of Acid Resistant Bacteria Positive Pulmonary TB.
Please note that the highest prediction results of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB patients are assumed if the facilities and infrastructure, existing health facilities are still the same as the state of health facilities in the period before the prediction, hence, it affects the high and low number of cases of prediction results.
Predictions of the rise or fall of Pulmonary TB case data can also be influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many patients complaining of cough pain is then suspected as COVID-19 sufferers directed to have an antigen examination and/or PCR swab test. Thus, it is not followed up for specimen examination of positive Acid Resistant Bacteria sputum (tuberculosis).
Other factors affecting the incidence of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB are environmental and socioeconomic factors. Soil floor types, for instance, can indicate very basic dwelling conditions that do not match the standards, are difficult to clean, dusty, and tend to be wet and dark. This is a perfect environment for bacteria and viruses to thrive and survive for prolonged periods of time. People who enter the residence with acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB are more easily disseminated to other inhabitants (Crofton, et al., 2002). House contact is a very serious threat to other family members to suffer from tuberculosis because it is a source of intensive transmission which is around the daily lives of other family members. Close contact with people with acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB is at maximum risk for infection. Delays in providing treatment increase the possibility of transmission risk (Apriani, 2001).
178| https://doi.org/10.31965/infokes.Vol19Iss2.558 Socio-economic factors, such as income per capita, illustrate a person's economic ability which broadly influences other aspects of life, such as healthy behavior, education, housing, and others. From the health aspect, families with high-per-capita income can meet the needs of their family members, such as nutritional needs, healthy housing and health care, in reducing the risk of TB disease (Jaya, & Mediarti., 2017). The relationship between per capita income and tuberculosis may occur reciprocally. Under certain conditions, pulmonary tuberculosis attacking family members who are the backbone of the family economy can directly influence the family's per capita income, due to the lack of productive working days (Aditama, 2005).
Based on the results of (Sarce dan Suarni, 2016), it is explained that during the last 3 years from 2013-2015, there was an increase in acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary TB cases every year in almost all areas of Kendari city Sub district. The results of the study (Andayani & Astuti, 2017) presented that the distribution of pulmonary TB patients in Ponorogo Regency in 2010-2015 frequently increase every year. At the time of prediction, which is in 2016-2020, it is predicted that pulmonary TB cases keep increasing.

CONCLUSION
Based on the results of this study, it can be identified that the time series (projection) data of acid resistant bacteria positive pulmonary tb patients in madiun city in 2021-2025 keep increasing every year in which the most cases are dominated by male community groups. There are several factors influencing the increase or decrease in the incidence of positive smear pulmonary TB. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the risk factors causing the incidence of positive smear pulmonary TB based on the health service work area or community characteristics and conduct preventive and promotive activities to reduce the incidences of positive smear pulmonary TB particularly in the male sex group.