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The Transition of Industrialization Stage, Technological Progress and Energy Efficiency Upgrading Based on the Time-Varying State Space Model

Improving energy efficiency is the main method of relieving energy demands and solving the problem of energy undersupply.From the aspect of industrialization stage transition and technological progress,we selected the economic aggregate factor,industrial structure factor and total factor productivity growth rate as influencing variables of energy efficiency.Using the time-varying state space model,we analyzed the influence of economic growth,industrial structure change and technological progress on energy efficiency at different industrialization stages based on the hypothesis of kuznets and the theory of structure dividend.The results show that the relationship between per capita GDP and energy efficiency follows a U curve which first declines then increases after a relatively stable period with industrialization transition.The estimation coefficients of the ratio of the added value of secondary industry to GDP are almost as negative as industrial structure changes,following the general rules of the relationship between industrial structure evolution and energy efficiency during the process of transition.At the beginning of industrialization,the demand for energy by secondary industries is steady and the influence of industrial structure on energy efficiency is non-significant.During the middle and later industrialization periods,the rapid development of tertiary industries optimizes the allocation of energy resources,results in structure dividend and elevates energy efficiency.In the rapid technical progress period,rebound effects caused by technological progress on energy efficiency may weaken the promotion effect to some extent,reducing the influence of technological progress.Based on the analysis above,this article also estimated the potential energy efficiency by calculating the output gap.Potential energy efficiency fluctuated between-4% and 4% intervals after 1978.In the long run,promoting technological progress is a significant way to develop potential energy efficiency and improve energy efficiency.The government should subsidize energy-saving related research and development,and fund high-quality energy processing technology.They should also combine the long-term plan with the short target to promote the scientific development of the energy industry.