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Power Transformer Condition Forecast with Time-series Extrapolation

The paper estimates diagnostic capabilities of high-voltage transformer condition on-line monitoring systems. Limited capabilities are proven to be determined by lack of engineering condition analysis and forecast methods based on the total of diagnostic features. The authors consider the methods and algorithm providing condition forecast with the time-series extrapolation. They offer data on the developed special software of time-series forecast. They also introduce an example of software application for transformer condition estimation based on oil-dissolved gas concentration. Calculations prove efficiency of the proposed methods and promising outlook of their application at developing multi-parameter diagnostic systems.