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Nowcasting Severity of Thunderstorm Associated with Strong Wind Flow Over Indian
 Subcontinent: Resource Lightning Surges

Lightning Detection Systems (LDS) have a vital role in the real-time
 identification of the location of lightning strikes for the purpose of weather
 forecasting and issuing warning with sufficient lead time for safe operations. The
 spatial and temporal distribution of lightning, formulated using LDS observations, can
 be an objective input to infer and refine the climatology of Thunderstorm (TS) over a
 region. This study uses the data of Indian Air Force (IAF) LDS network to prepare
 climatological plots of lightning over India and to formulate location-specific TS
 guidance for a total of 12 Indian airports. The analysis of climatological plots reveals
 that there is a distinct warm-season preponderance of lightning strikes over Indian
 subcontinent, with pre-monsoon months receiving the maximum lightning. The most probable
 time of occurrence being 1200-1400 UTC during all the seasons across the country.
 Location-specific TS guidance not only signifies the most probable direction of
 occurrence of TS with respect to the airport, but also clearly brings out the favourable
 direction of movement. Hence, the same can be judiciously used as nowcasting aid coupled
 with actual LDS and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations. Further, the
 characteristics features of lightning, like surges in flash rate, can be objectively
 used to define a predictor for nowcasting severe weather associated with a TS cloud. The
 study of these surges in lightning flash rate visa vis occurrence of Strong Surface
 Winds (SSW) > 60 kmph over Delhi National Capital Region(NCR), indicated that there
 is an increase in the number of lightning flashes prior to the occurrence of SSW. 77.5 %
 occurrences are preceded by surges in flash rate within 45 minutes of the occurrence of
 SSW, however, the probability of detection of the event with a lead time of 15 to 45
 minutes is around 71%.