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Vertical and Horizontal Integration in the Uganda Fish Supply Chain: Measuring for Feedback Effects to Fishermen

This article contributes to the empirical price transmission literature with a statistical investigation of market prices in the fish supply chain for Uganda. We are particularly interested in the extent of ex-vessel prices impacting links downstream in the fish supply chain. We test for vertical and horizontal co-integration for five important fish species using the Johansen vector error correction model. We search for price leadership using the Toda and Yamamoto procedure to test for Granger causality. And ARIMA models are used to forecast ex-vessel prices. Our results show that ex-vessel prices are only weakly related to downstream markets.