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Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions : Smokers are

This paper provides new evidence on biased beliefs about the risks of smoking. First, it confirms the established tendency of people to overestimate the lifetime risk of a smoker to contract lung cancer. In this paper’s survey, almost half of all respondents overestimate this risk. However, 80% underestimate lung cancer deadliness, particularly heavy smokers and smokers who do not plan to quit. In reality, less than four in five patients survive five years after a lung cancer diagnosis. Due to the broad underestimation of the lung cancer deadliness, the risk of a smoker to die of lung cancer is underestimated by almost half of all respondents. Smokers who do not plan to quit are significantly more likely to underestimate this risk.