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The Saudi Nuclear Genie is Out

Anuclear deal with Iran—Saudi Arabia’s regional rival—was always going to be unwelcome news in Riyadh, as it means that Tehran receives international recognition as a nuclear threshold state. Saudi Arabia views a deal as an increase in Iran’s power at Saudi expense. Even before any broad outlines for an agreement were in place, though, the negotiations themselves placed Iran on par with the world’s leading superpowers. Which is exactly why Saudi Arabia made contingency plans to keep pace with Iran. In recent years, Riyadh has accelerated its own civilian nuclear development in response—a move that might undermine U.S. nonproliferation endeavors—but will make sure the Kingdom can match any nuclear capabilities Iran is allowed to maintain as part of any final nuclear deal with world powers. While a deal with Iran is unlikely to lead Saudi Arabia to immediately launch a full nuclear military program, it may cause the Kingdom to accelerate its nuclear hedging strategy—building up nuclear infrastructure to keep future options open. Saudi Arabia declared the foundation of its (civilian) nuclear intentions as early as the conclusion of the December 2006 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) annual summit, and since then has been investigating the use of nuclear technology for a variety of purposes. In 2011, Saudi Arabia announced its ambitious plan to build no fewer than sixteen nuclear power plants at an estimated cost of over $100 billion. One of the concerns associated with such civilian programs is that they could serve as a basis to develop military programs should political circumstances, threat perceptions, and allies’ commitments change.