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Spatiotemporal Models of Ethnic Segregation and Their Implications for Housing Policy

A number of models have been developed to simulate the changing segregation of ethnic groups in urban areas. Of these the ‘tipping point’ and ‘spatial diffusion’ models have been the most widely employed. This discussion presents a general evaluation of the effectiveness of such models and outlines an attempt to simulate changing segregation patterns by combining in-migration, diffusion, and housing structure elements. The simulation is tested with data for Birmingham, England, in the 1960s and 1970s. The general implications of the model for future government and local authority housing policies toward ethnic groups are also considered.