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Predicting long‐term outcome in schizophrenia

Prediction of 14‐ to 17‐year outcome from symptoms present at admission and psychosocial and personality data was attempted among the 92 survivors of a group of 110 first‐admitted schizophrenic patients. Three different outcome criteria were used and the correlations between these varied from low to high. Using a discriminant analytical approach where all 107 predictor variables were used to predict a combination of outcome criteria, 23% of outcome variance could be explained, which should be compared with 49% in a previous 5‐ to 9‐year outcome study on the same material. At least one outcome variable ‐ economic self‐support ‐ could not at all be predicted. “Atypical” symptoms were associated with favourable outcome and longitudinal variables indicative of “high‐risk personality”, or duration and severity of illness, were related to bad prognosis. Overt psychotic symptoms had no significant correlation with outcome.