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Does time difference between countries reduce bilateral trade? An application of the correlated random effects method using panel data

ABSTRACT This article implements the correlated random effects (CRE) panel data technique in a gravity framework to analyse the effect of time difference between countries on bilateral trade. One major advantage of the CRE approach over the fixed-effects approach is that it is able to estimate the effect of variables that remain unchanged within panel clusters (e.g. time difference between countries), while these variables get dropped from regressions that use fixed-effects methods. Regression results based on the CRE Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator indicate statistically significant negative effect of time difference between countries on bilateral trade. An additional hour of time difference between countries is found to reduce bilateral merchandise exports by approximately 8%, even after controlling for the effect of distance in the regressions.