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1 A Prototype Simulation System for Large Fire Planning in FPA July 5 , 2007

Billions of dollars are spent annually to contain large wildand fires but the factors contributing to suppression success are poorly understood and have not been modeled. We used a general linear mixed model (GLMM) to predict containment probability of individual fires assuming containment was a repeated measures problem (fixed effect) and individual fires were random effects. Changes in daily fire size from 314 fires occurring in years 2001-2005 were processed to identify intervals of high spread from those of low spread. The analysis suggested that containment was positively related to the number of consecutive days where the fire grew little and the number of previous such quiescent intervals. Containment probability was negatively related to the length of intervals where the fire exhibited high spread and the presence of timber fuel types. Fire size was not a significant predictor. Characterizing containment probability may be useful component of a cost-benefit analysis of large fire management and planning systems.