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Scenario Building: a Suitable Method for Strategic Construction Industry Planning?

This paper is primarily about the Scenario Method. How scenario building, planning or learning exercises can profitably be used to identify, develop and test alternative plans, policies and practices that might be proposed in exploring and preparing for strategic decision-making in the construction industry. The method has been widely used in business, industry and government for over thirty years as an unrivalled technique to learn about the future before it happens. The paper examines the principles, practice and pitfalls of Scenario Building with the prime aim of presenting the technique as one singularly relevant to the study of the construction industry. It also identifies some of the driving forces, societal issues and policy strategies that confront Ireland in devising a suitable approach towards learning about and planning for the future.