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Underestimation of the projected 21st century increase in drought duration, according to emergent constraint: consistent result in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Droughts are defined as one of the most devastating natural disasters of modern times and a key challenge faced under climate change. The complexity of interacting physical processes that underlie the shortage of rainfall in climate models hampers accurate representation of presentday droughts, and leads to differences in their responses to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the future. As a result, the confidence in drought projections is currently defined as ‘medium to low' by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reducing this uncertainty remains one of the main goals in coming years, with significant benefits for human and natural systems.