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Gentrification and Food Retail Instability: A Census Tract Analysis of the Bronx, New York, 2008 and 2017

As food retailers open, close, and change ownership, the resulting instability in local food environments can affect food access and health. Gentrification, and its associated socioeconomic changes, can be a factor in destabilizing food environments. This study examined food retail in lower income, gentrifying, and higher income census tracts in the Bronx, New York, in 2008 and 2017 to analyze the level of instability of retailers over this period. We created an instability index and tested unweighted and weighted variants to examine disruptions in food retail over time, within and across different food retail segments. We argue that, compared to an unweighted version of the index, a weighted index better captures meaningful food environment changes. The results of this weighted index show that although the odds of food retail change varied among segments and census tract types, gentrifying neighborhoods were not particularly vulnerable to food retail changes in the Bronx compared to lower income and higher income neighborhoods. Our weighted instability index can be applied to other contexts and commercial sectors to track the status of retailers over time and across neighborhoods.