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An Approach to Security Environment Forecasting Based on Structuring of Foresight Process and on the Method of Goal Dynamic Evaluation of Alternatives

In 2021 the Assessment of the Future Security Environment of Ukraine (the forecasting period – till 2030) was elaborated and published for the first time. However, the methodology of strategic forecasting and planning in the national security and defense sphere still needs to be further developed and improved. That is why we propose to use the Method of Goal Dynamic Evaluation of Alternatives and its modifications to elaborate and process the Future Security Environment model, built by experts and analysts. According to our approach, prediction process should be structured into series of steps, and thoroughly consider the international experience of strategic geopolitical forecasting.