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Decoupling outmigration from marine survival indicates outsized influence of streamflow on cohort success for California’s Chinook salmon populations

Historically, marine survival estimates for salmon have been confounded with freshwater seaward migration (outmigration) survival. Telemetry studies have revealed low and variable survival during outmigration, suggesting marine mortality may not be the primary source of variability in cohort size as previously believed. Using a novel combination of tagging technologies, survival during these two life stages was decoupled over 5 years for Sacramento River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Outmigration survival ranged from 2.6% to 17%, and marine survival ranged from 4.2% to 22.8%. Influential environmental drivers in both life stages were also compared with smolt-to-adult ratios (SAR) for three Chinook salmon populations over 20 years. Streamflow during outmigration had higher correlation with SAR (r2 > 0.34) than two marine productivity indices (r2 < 0.08). The few SAR estimates that were poorly predicted by flow occurred during years with the lowest marine productivity, suggesting most interannual SAR fluctuations are explained by outmigration survival, but abnormally poor marine conditions also reduce SAR. The outsized influence of flow on SAR provides managers with a powerful mitigation tool in a watershed where flow is tightly regulated.