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Evaluation and dynamics of risk of tick-borne viral encephalitis disease in some regions of Ural Federal District

The regions of the Ural Federal District (UFD) are highly endemic for tick-borne encephalitis (ТВE) territories. The dynamics of morbidity of ТВЕ in the population characterized by complex cyclic, depending on many external variables. Retrospective analysis of the long-term dynamics (2007–2019) of the incidence of ТВЕ in regions of the UFD, taking into account the number of tick affected people was presented. The chances of getting sick in tick affected peoples to quantify the effect of predictors on TBE incidence were calculated. Standard apparatus of the theory of generalized linear models – logit-regression was used. It was established that the regions of the UFD characterized by a similar dynamics in the odds ratio indicator, therefore, TBE incidence with alternating ups and downs with a trend towards a decrease in the chance of TBE getting sick in tick affected people from 2007 to 2019. On average, over 13 years, the chances of developing TBE are statistically significantly different in the studied regions of the UFD, which can be explained by the influence of many risk factors and their combinations on the TBE incidence.