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Shot Selection Tactics in the Basketball Game HORSE and a Match between Mitchel Robinson and Brad Wanamaker

The game of HORSE is a highly competitive contest that displays an 
unexpected complexity due to the probabilistic, recursive chain of events 
that make up a match. In this paper, the shot selection tactics used in the 
game of HORSE are modeled and their effect on the outcome of the match 
is explored. Parameters used for this modeling are identified and their 
effects are quantified. Competing effects are discovered for the difference 
between the outcome of a single shot trial and the result of full game. 
The shot selection tactics are optimization over both these parameters 
and their competing effects. A simulated HORSE tournament between 
the leading NBA free throw shooter and the NBA player with the highest 
shooting percentage from the field is presented to illustrate these points. 
In conclusion, the shot selection tactics that optimize these competing 
effects and provide the best opportunity for victory are presented