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Reliable Risk Analysis on the Example of Tsunami Heights

Abstract In the course of many crises (e.g. the finance and bank crises), wars, terror and the climate change, risk analysis has become one of the most discussed topics, not only in scientific circles. Especially, after the Fukushima disaster, the quality of traditional risk analysis has become doubtful. As known today, when the nuclear power plant at Fukushima was planned in the 1960s, the design was based on an unreliable risk analysis and also the regular controls under the supervision of the IAEA did not lead to any changes. Motivated by the Fukushima disaster, the risk of tsunamis is taken in this paper as an example to illustrate a risk analysis of high quality. Although it is performed only as an example, it shows how one has to proceed to get reliable and accurate prediction and measurement procedures as a basis for making appropriate decisions whenever risks are involved.