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The dynamics of house prices and fiscal policy shocks in Turkey

This study examines the interaction between house prices and gov-ernment spending, mortgage interest rates, and gross domestic product in Turkey. The ARDL bounds test approach is applied to quarterly data covering the 2010:1–2017:4 period. Findings indicate that there is a statistically significant long-run and short-run cointegration between the two house price indexes and government spending, mortgage rates, and GDP. An increase in government spending has a statistically sig-nificant positive effect on house prices. The study also indicates that mortgage interest rate and GDP have a statistically signifi-cant effect on house prices.