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Planted Acres - Did the Market Get It Right?

In the case of the second function, the dynamics of the market are most transparent in the new crop corn and soybean markets leading up to and during the U.S. spring planting season. Since a majority of U.S. corn and soybeans are produced in the same geographic areas, the role of the market is to allocate that acreage so that reasonable prices are generated for both crops. That allocation process occurs in an environment of extreme uncertainty. The nature of growing season weather that determines yields is not known, the magnitude of production of corn and soybeans and competing crops in the rest of the world is not known, and the strength of world demand for corn and soybeans during the upcoming marketing year is not known. In addition, weather conditions during the planting season may prevent producers from completely responding to market signals and extreme summer weather conditions may result in unexpected production levels. As a result, the magnitude of U.S. corn and soybean production does not always result in price levels that could be judged as reasonable for both producers and users. Acreage decisions, however, should reflect reasonable expectations about yields and demand.