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Factual and Mathematical Analysis of Impacts of the Economic Crisis on Tourism in the Czech Republic

The Czech Republic is a showcase example of a very open and essentially very liberal economy, especially in terms of its relations with other countries. While industrial production, with manufacturing in particular, remains the key economic segment, tourism and services associated with it have their significance as well. As a state outside the Euro Area, the Czech Republic is faced with currency (CZK) fluctuations vis-à-vis the major foreign currencies, including the euro and U.S. dollar, with the importance of the euro being by far the highest in tourism. Using statistical time series, the present work analyses the development of tourism in the Czech Republic, uprooting the general belief that the crisis in the tourism industry came as a result of the global economic crisis (2008-2010). Based on mathematical analysis and identification of correlations between statistical time series, it has become apparent that the crisis had hit the travel industry before the global economic recession and came as the direct result of the strengthening of the CZK compared to the major foreign currencies, particularly the euro and U.S. dollar. A factual and mathematical analysis is performed, examining the relationship between the key data on consumption concerning local and foreign visitors. It has become apparent that the crisis curve applying to local visitors lags behind the curve applying to foreign visitors, with the time shift being equal to difference in the period where the strengthening of the Czech currency adversely affected the spending of foreign tourists and the period where the income of local residents was negatively impacted by the global crisis. Keywords—gross domestic product, mathematical analysis, recession, statistical time series, tourism.