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A System Dynamics Approach to Humanitarian Logistics and the Transportation of Relief Supplies

A system dynamics model was developed for the forecasting, prioritization, and distribution of critical supplies during relief operations in case of a hurricane event, while integrating GIS information. Data was obtained from operational reports gathered during Hurricane George from agencies such as: Puerto Rico Department of Housing (PRDOH), Puerto Rico National Guard (PRNG), Civil Defense State Agency of Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico Department of Transportation and Public Works (PRDOTPW) and Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority (PRHTA), along with reports from other U.S. agencies. Information about travel times, roadway classification, and geometric characteristics of the roads as well as the location of distribution centers, shelters, points of distribution and kitchens facilities were also gathered through visual field inspections and interviews with local residents. The model developed is able to (1) establish the people's decision and transportation characteristics that determine the time of evacuation; (2) simulate the behavior of key variables due to the relation between level of hazard and people's decision to evacuate; (3) estimate for each level of natural hazard the time frequency to order and the order size of each relief supply to be needed in shelters and points of distribution; and (4) reveal which routes cause more delays during distribution of relief supplies. It was demonstrated that the number of people that leave the disaster site increases despite their concerns about the road conditions and that a Category 3 hurricane will produce the higher amount of people that will evacuate.